This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #412 with Marc Raibert.
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This is the Lex Friedman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Marc Raibert. When did you first fall in love with robotics?
But the result of that was our basement was always full of tools and equipment and electronics, and from a young age, I would watch him assembling an ICO kit or something like that. I still have a couple of his old ICO kits.
But it was really during graduate school when I followed a professor back from class. It was Berthold Horn at MIT, and I was taking an interim class. It’s IAP, Independent Activities Period. And I followed him back to his lab, and on the table was a [inaudible 00:02:50] robot arm taken apart in probably a thousand pieces. And when I saw that, from that day on, I was a roboticist.
So that was the first time a bridge was made between those two groups then the bridge kind of went away, and then there was another time in the ’80s. And then recently the last five or so years, there’s been a stronger connection.
And I even had kind of this platonic ideal that a robot, if you just looked at a robot and it wasn’t doing anything, it would look like a pile of junk, which a lot of my robots looked like in those days. But then when it started moving, you’d get the idea that it had some kind of life or some kind of interest in its movement, and I think we purposely even designed the machines not worrying about the aesthetics of the structure itself. But then it turns out that the aesthetics of the thing itself add and combine with the lifelike things that the robots can do. But the heart of it is making them do things that are interesting.
And I went to a talk. All the talks were about the body of either animals or people and respiration, things like that. But one talk was by a robotics guy, and he showed a six legged robot that walked very slowly. It always had at least three feet on the ground, so it worked like a table or a chair with tripod stability, and it moved really slowly.
And I just looked at that and said, wow, that’s wrong. That’s not anything like how people and animals work because we bounce and fly. We have to predict what’s going to happen in order to keep our balance when we’re taking a running step or something like that. We use the springiness in our legs, our muscles and our tendons and things like that as part of the story. The energy circulates. We don’t just throw it away every time.
I’m not sure I understood all that when I first thought, but I definitely got inspired to say, “Let’s try the opposite.” And I didn’t have a clue as to how to make a hopping robot work, not balance in 3D. In fact, when I started, it was all just about the energy of bouncing, and I was going to have a springy thing in the leg and some actuator so that you could get an energy regime going of bouncing.
And the idea that balance was an important part of it didn’t come until a little later. And then I made the pogo stick robots. Now I think that we need to do that in manipulation. If you look at robot manipulation, a community has been working on it for 50 years. We’re nowhere near human levels of manipulation. It’s come along, but I think it’s all too safe.
And I think trying to break out of that safety thing of static grasping. If you look at a lot of work that goes on, it’s about the geometry of the part, and then you figure out how to move your hand so that you can position it with respect to that, and then you grasp it carefully and then you move it. Well, that’s not anything like how people and animals work. We juggle in our hands, we hug multiple objects and can sort them. So.
Now to be fair, being more aggressive is going to mean things aren’t going to work very well for a while, so it’s a longer term approach to the problem, and that’s just theory now. Maybe that won’t pay off, but that’s how I’m trying to think about it, trying to encourage our group to go at it.
These are incredible robots. You talked about the very first step was to get a thing hopping up and down, and then you realized, well, balancing is a thing you should care about, and it’s actually a solvable problem. Can you just go through how to create that robot? What was involved in creating that robot?
Anyway, I got to know him and at one point he said he encouraged me to do some kind of project at Caltech, even though I was at JPL. Those are kind of related institutions. And so I thought about it and I made up a list of three possible projects, and I purposely made the top one and the bottom one really boring sounding. And in the middle I put Pogo stick robot. And when he looked at it, Ivan is a brilliant guy, brilliant engineer, and a real cultivator of people. He looked at it and knew right away what thing that was worth doing. And so he had an endowed chair, so he had about $3,000 that he gave me to build the first model, which I went I to the shop and with my own hands kind of made a first model, which didn’t work and was just a beginning shot at it.
Ivan and I took that to Washington. And in those days you could just walk into DARPA and walk down the hallway and see who’s there, and Ivan, who had been there in his previous life. And so we walked around and we looked in the offices. Of course, I didn’t know anything. I was basically a kid, but Ivan knew his way around, and we found Craig Fields in his office.
Craig later became the director of DARPA, but in those days, he was a program manager. And so we went in, I had a little Samsonite suitcase, which we opened, and it had just the skeleton of this one-legged hopping robot. And we showed it to him, and you could almost see the drool going down his chin of excitement. And he sent me $250,000. He said, “Okay, I want to fund this.”
And I was between institutions, I was just about to leave JPL, and I hadn’t decided yet where I was going next, and then when I landed at CMU, he sent $250,000, which in 1980 was a lot of research money.
It wasn’t that hard to make it balanced once you get the physical machine to be working well enough and have enough control over the degrees of freedom. We started out by having it floating on an inclined air table, and then that only gave us like six foot of travel, so once it started working, we switched to a thing that could run around the room on another device. It’s hard to explain these without you seeing them, but you probably know what I’m talking about, a planarize.
And then the next big step was to make it work in 3D, which that was really the scary part with these simple things. People had inverted pendulums at the time for years, and they could control them by driving a cart back and forth, but could you make it work in three dimensions while it’s bouncing and all that? But it turned out not to be that hard to do, at least at the level of performance we achieved at the time.
Then there’s a part that you decide where to put the foot. And if you think when you’re landing on the ground with respect to the center of mass. So if you think of a pole vaulter, the key thing the pole vaulter has to do is get its body to the right place when the pole gets stuck. If they’re too far forward, they kind of get thrown backwards. If they’re too far back, they go over. And what they need to do is get it so that they go mostly up to get over the thing. And high jumpers is the same kind of thing. So there’s a calculation about where to put the foot, and we did something relatively simple.
And then there’s a third part to keep the body at an attitude that’s upright, because if it gets too far, you could hop and just keep rotating around. But if it gets too far, then you run out of motion of the joints at the hips. So you have to do that. And we did that by applying a torque between the legs and the body. Every time the foot’s on the ground. You only can do it while the foot’s on the ground in the air. The physics don’t work out.
One of my students worked on getting things to go faster. Another one worked on climbing over obstacles. Because when you’re running on the open ground, it’s one thing; if you’re running up a stair, you have to adjust where you are, otherwise things don’t work out. You land your foot on the edge of the steps. There’s other degrees of freedom to control if you’re getting to more realistic, practical situations.
But I’ll tell you, after we started working on them, you could see that the connection and the impact with other people, whether they’re laypeople or even other technical people, there’s a special thing that goes on, even though most of the humanoid robots aren’t that much like a person.
And we were doing surgical operations’ anastomosis, which was stitching tubes together. Tubes like blood vessels or other things in their body. And you could feel, you could see the tissues move. And it was really exciting. And the idea was to make a trainer to teach surgeons how to do stuff. We built a scoring system because we’d interviewed surgeons that told us what you’re supposed to do and what you’re not supposed to do.
You’re not supposed to tear the tissue, you’re not supposed to touch it in any place except for where you’re trying to engage. There were a bunch of rules. So we built this thing and took it to a trade show, a surgical trade show, and the surgeons were practically lined up. Well, we kept a score and we posted their scores on a video game. And those guys are so competitive that they really, really loved doing it.
And they would come around and they see someone’s score was higher there, so they would come back. But we figured out shortly after, that we thought surgeons were going to pay us to get trained on these things and the surgeons thought we should pay them so they could teach us about the thing. And there was no money from the surgeons. And we looked at it and thought, well, maybe we could sell it to hospitals that would train their surgeons.
And then we said, at the time we were probably a 12 person company or maybe 15 people, I don’t remember, there’s no way we could go after a marketing activity. The company was all bootstrapped in those years. We never had investors until Google bought us, which was after 20 years. So we didn’t have any resources to go after hospitals. So one day, Rob and I were looking at that and we’d built another simulator for knee arthroscopy and we said, “This isn’t going to work.” And we killed it. And we moved on. And that was really a milestone in the company because we sort of understood who we were and what would work and what wouldn’t. Even though technically it was really a fascinating thing.
So we had six ISDN lines installed and we would have a telecon every week that worked at very low frame rates, something like 10 hertz. English across the boundary with Japan was a challenge trying to understand what each of us was saying and have meetings every week for several years doing that.
And it was a pleasure working with them. They were really supporters. They seemed to like us and what we were doing. That was the real transition from us being a simulation company into being a robotics company again.
One was BigDog, one was a climbing robot rise, and that put things in motion. We hired Martin Bueller, he was a professor in Montreal at McGill. He was incredibly important for getting BigDog out of the lab and into the mud, which was a key step to really be willing to go out there out and build it, break it, fix it, which is sort of one of our mottos at the company.
And the robot itself just had the actuators. It had gyroscopes for sensing and some other sensors, but all the power and computing was off board. BigDog had all that stuff integrated on the platform. It had a gasoline engine for power, which was a very complicated thing to undertake. It had to convert the rotation of the engine into hydraulic power, which is how we actuated it. So there was a lot of learning just on building the physical robot and the system integration for that. And then there was the controls of it.
So I think those were actually bigger challenges. Once we faced them, it was mostly getting the systems to work well enough together, the hardware systems to work. And the controls. In those days, we did have a human operator who did all the visual perception going up the Guadalcanal Trail. So there was an operator who was right there who was very skilled even though the robot was balancing itself and placing its own feet, if the operator didn’t do the right thing, it wouldn’t go.
But years later, we went back with one of the electric, the precursor to Spot, and we had advanced the controls and everything so much that a complete amateur could operate the robot the first time up and down and up and down. Whereas it taken us years to get there in the previous robot.
And that was the inspiration behind the spot pretty much as it exists today. We did a prototype the same size that was the first all electric, non-hydraulic robot.
Most of hydraulic control, that is the valve that controls the flow of oil, had been designed in the 50s for airplanes. It had been made robust enough, safe enough that you could count on it so that humans could fly in airplanes and very little innovation had happened that might not be fair to the people who make the valves. I’m sure that they did innovate, but the basic had stayed the same and there was so much more you could do.
And so our engineers designed valves, the ones that are in Atlas for instance, that had new kinds of circuits, they sort of did some of the computing that could get you much more efficient use. They were much smaller and lighter so the whole robot could be smaller and lighter. We made a hydraulic power supply that had a bunch of components integrated in this tiny package.
It’s about this big, the size of a football weighs five kilograms and it produces five kilowatts of power. Of course it has to have a battery operating, but it’s got a motor, a pump filters, heat exchanger to keep it cool. Some valves all in this tiny little package. So hydraulics could still have a ways to go.
And you’re looking at what the obstacles are, where the feet are going to be placed. You have to coordinate a lot of things. If you have obstacles and you’re balancing at the same time and it’s that limited horizon type calculation that’s doing a lot of that. But if you’re doing something like a somersault, you’re looking out a lot further. If you want to stick the landing, you have to, at the time of launch, have momentum and rotation, all those things coordinated so that a landing is within reach.
So how high you jump gives you time. You look at how quickly you can rotate. And so if you get those two right, then when you land, you have the feet in the right place and you have to get rid of all that rotational and linear momentum. But that’s not too hard to figure out. And we made back in about 1985 or six, I can’t remember, we had a simple robot doing somersaults.
To do it in 3D, really the calculation is the same. You just have to be balancing in the other degrees of freedom. If you’re just doing a somersault, it’s just a plainer thing. Ron Robert was my graduate student and we were at MIT, which is when we made a two-legged robot do a 3D somersault for the first time. There, in order to get enough rotation rate you needed to do tucking also, withdraw the legs in order to accelerate it.
And he did some really fascinating work on how you stabilize more complicated maneuvers. You remember he was a gymnast at Champion Gymnast before he’d come to me. So he had the physical abilities and he was an engineer, so he could translate some of that into the math and the algorithms that you need to do that.
I injured my toe recently and it made running very unpleasant. So that seems to be important. So how do you figure out for efficiency, for function, for aesthetics, how many joints to have, how many actuaries to have?
I’ll tell you the first sketch that Ben Brown made when we were talking about building this thing, was a very complicated thing with zillions of springs, lots of joints. It looked much more like a kangaroo or an ostrich or something like that. Things we were paying a lot of attention to at the time. So my job was to say, okay, well let’s do something simpler to get started and maybe we’ll get there at some point.
And in BigDog, there was no place to store negative work in the knees. But BigDog also had pogo stick springs down below. So part of the action was to comply in a bouncing motion. Later on in Spot, we took that out. As we got further and further away from the leg lab, we had more energy-driven controls.
And he made this legged system that could walk down an incline plane where the legs folded and unfolded and swung forward, do the whole walking motion where there was no computer. There were some adjustments to the mechanics so that there were dampers and springs in some places that helped the mechanical action happen. It was essentially a mechanical computer. And the interesting idea there is that it’s not all about the brain dictating to the body what the body should do. The body is a participant in the motion.
And I think that’s in short supply for robots. Most robots are pretty dumb. As a result, it takes a lot of skilled people to program them to do everything they do, and it takes a long time. If robots are going to satisfy our dreams, they need to be smarter. So the AI Institute is designed to combine that physicality of the athletic side with the cognitive side.
For instance, we’re trying to make robots that can watch a human do a task, understand what it’s seeing, and then do the task itself. OJT, on-the-job training for robots as a paradigm. Now, that’s pretty hard, and it’s sort of science fiction, but our idea is to work on a longer timeframe and work on solving those kinds of problems. I have a whole list of things that are in that vein.
There’s cost too, you’d like to get the cost down. Spots are still pretty expensive, and I don’t think that they have to be, but it takes a different kind of activity to do that. I think that Boston Dynamics is owned primarily by Hyundai now, and I think that the skills of Hyundai in making cars can be brought to bear in making robots that are less expensive and more reliable and those kinds of things.
We have several people working on machine learning approaches. I don’t know if you know, but we opened an office in Zurich recently, and Marco Hutter, who’s one of the real leaders in reinforcement learning for robots, is the director of that office. He’s still half-time at ETH, the university there, where he has an unbelievably fantastic lab, and then he’s half-time leading, will be leading efforts in the Zurich office. So we have a healthy learning component.
But there’s part of me that still says, if you look out in the world at what the most impressive performances are, they’re still pretty much, I hate to use the word traditional, but that’s what everybody’s calling it, traditional controls, like model predictive control. The Atlas performances that you’ve seen are mostly model predictive control. They’ve started to do some learning stuff that’s really incredible. I don’t know if it’s all been shown yet, but you’ll see it over time. And then Marco has done some great stuff and others.
Again, I’ll point at Boston Dynamics, some of the videos that we had showing the engineer making it hard for the robot to do its task. Spot opening a door and then the guy gets there and pushes on the door so it doesn’t open the way it’s supposed to. Pulling on the rope that’s attached to the robot, so its navigation has been screwed up. We have one where the robot’s climbing stairs and an engineer is tugging on a rope that’s pulling it back down the stairs. That’s totally different than just the robot seeing the stairs, making a model, putting its feet carefully on each step. But that’s what probably robotics needs to succeed, and having that broader idea that you want to come with a robust solution is what I meant by diligence.
I think the third thing is that if you’re lucky to be working in a team where you’re getting the benefit of other people’s skills that are helping you do your thing. None of us has all the skills needed to do most of these projects, and if you have a team where you’re working well with the others, that can be very satisfying.
Then if you’re an engineer, you also usually get paid. So you kind of get paid four times in my view of the world. So what could be better than that?
Meanwhile, Sarcos got acquired and then they went through all changes and I don’t know exactly what their current status is. So it took many years, is part of the answer. I think you got to find people who love it. In the early days, we paid a little less so we only got people who were doing it because they really loved it. We also hired people who might not have professional degrees, people who were building bicycles and building kayaks. We have some people who come from the maker world, and that’s really important for the work we do, to have that be part of the mix.
So you got to admire the guy and I wouldn’t count him out for anything. I don’t think Optimus today is where Atlas is, for instance. I don’t know, it’s a little hard to compare them to the other companies. I visited Figure. I think they’re doing well and they have a good team. I’ve visited Apptronik and I think they have a good team and they’re doing well. But Elon has a lot of resources, he has a lot of ambition. I like to take some credit for his ambition. I think if I read between the lines, it’s hard not to think that him seeing what Atlas is doing is a little bit of an inspiration. I hope so.
In the AI world now, now that we’re working on cognitive stuff, it feels much more a competition. The entry requirements in terms of computing hardware and the skills of the team and hiring talent, it’s a much tougher place. So I think much more about competition now on the cognitive side. On the physical side, it doesn’t feel it’s that much about competition yet. Obviously, with 10 humanoid companies out there, 10 or 12, I mean there’s probably others that I don’t know about, they’re definitely in competition, will be in competition.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:43 – Early robots
- 6:47 – Legged robots
- 25:27 – Boston Dynamics
- 28:45 – BigDog
- 36:52 – Hydraulic actuation
- 38:44 – Natural movement
- 44:31 – Leg Lab
- 51:23 – AI Institute
- 54:41 – Athletic intelligence
- 1:02:35 – Building a team
- 1:05:37 – Videos
- 1:13:25 – Engineering
- 1:16:53 – Dancing robots
- 1:21:40 – Hiring
- 1:25:32 – Optimus robot
- 1:34:02 – Future of robotics
- 1:38:56 – Advice for young people
Introduction
Marc Raibert
BigDog became LS3, which is the big load carrying one.
BigDog became LS3, which is the big load carrying one.
Lex Fridman
Just a quick pause. It can carry 400 pounds.
Just a quick pause. It can carry 400 pounds.
Marc Raibert
It was designed to carry 400, but we had it carrying about 1,000 pounds at one time.
It was designed to carry 400, but we had it carrying about 1,000 pounds at one time.
Lex Fridman
Of course you did. Just to make sure.
Of course you did. Just to make sure.
Marc Raibert
We had one carrying the other one. We had two of them, so we had one carrying the other one.
We had one carrying the other one. We had two of them, so we had one carrying the other one.
Lex Fridman
So one of the things that stands out about the robots Boston Dynamics have created is how beautiful the movement is, how natural the walking is and running is, even flipping, it’s throwing is, so maybe you can talk about what’s involved in making it look natural.
So one of the things that stands out about the robots Boston Dynamics have created is how beautiful the movement is, how natural the walking is and running is, even flipping, it’s throwing is, so maybe you can talk about what’s involved in making it look natural.
Marc Raibert
Well, I think having good hardware is part of the story, and people who think you don’t need to innovate hardware anymore are wrong.
Well, I think having good hardware is part of the story, and people who think you don’t need to innovate hardware anymore are wrong.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Marc Raibert, a legendary roboticist, founder and longtime CEO of Boston Dynamics, and recently the Executive Director of the newly created Boston Dynamics AI Institute, that focuses on research and the cutting edge, on creating future generations of robots that are far better than anything that exists today. He has been leading the creation of incredible legged robots for over 40 years at CMU, at MIT, the legendary MIT Leg Lab, and then of course, Boston Dynamics with amazing robots like BigDog, Atlas, Spot, and Handle. This was a big honor and pleasure for me.
The following is a conversation with Marc Raibert, a legendary roboticist, founder and longtime CEO of Boston Dynamics, and recently the Executive Director of the newly created Boston Dynamics AI Institute, that focuses on research and the cutting edge, on creating future generations of robots that are far better than anything that exists today. He has been leading the creation of incredible legged robots for over 40 years at CMU, at MIT, the legendary MIT Leg Lab, and then of course, Boston Dynamics with amazing robots like BigDog, Atlas, Spot, and Handle. This was a big honor and pleasure for me.
This is the Lex Friedman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Marc Raibert. When did you first fall in love with robotics?
Early robots
Marc Raibert
Well, I was always a builder from a young age. I was lucky. My father was a frustrated engineer, and by that, I mean he wanted to be an aerospace engineer, but his mom from the old country thought that that would be like a grease monkey, and so she said no. So he became an accountant.
Well, I was always a builder from a young age. I was lucky. My father was a frustrated engineer, and by that, I mean he wanted to be an aerospace engineer, but his mom from the old country thought that that would be like a grease monkey, and so she said no. So he became an accountant.
But the result of that was our basement was always full of tools and equipment and electronics, and from a young age, I would watch him assembling an ICO kit or something like that. I still have a couple of his old ICO kits.
But it was really during graduate school when I followed a professor back from class. It was Berthold Horn at MIT, and I was taking an interim class. It’s IAP, Independent Activities Period. And I followed him back to his lab, and on the table was a [inaudible 00:02:50] robot arm taken apart in probably a thousand pieces. And when I saw that, from that day on, I was a roboticist.
Lex Fridman
Do you remember the year?
Do you remember the year?
Marc Raibert
1974.
1974.
Lex Fridman
1974. So there’s just this arm in pieces.
1974. So there’s just this arm in pieces.
Marc Raibert
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And you saw the pieces and you saw in your vision the arm when it’s put back together and the possibilities that holds.
And you saw the pieces and you saw in your vision the arm when it’s put back together and the possibilities that holds.
Marc Raibert
Somehow it spurred my imagination. I was in the branding cognitive sciences department as a graduate student doing neurophysiology. I’d been an electrical engineer as an undergrad at Northeastern. And the neurophysiology wasn’t really working for me. It wasn’t conceptual enough. I couldn’t see really how by looking at single neurons, you were going to get to a place where you could understand control systems or thought or anything like that. And the AI lab was always an appealing. This was before, [inaudible 00:03:47]. This was in the ’70s. So the AI lab was always an appealing idea. And so when I went back to the AI lab following him and I saw the arm, I just thought, “This is it.”
Somehow it spurred my imagination. I was in the branding cognitive sciences department as a graduate student doing neurophysiology. I’d been an electrical engineer as an undergrad at Northeastern. And the neurophysiology wasn’t really working for me. It wasn’t conceptual enough. I couldn’t see really how by looking at single neurons, you were going to get to a place where you could understand control systems or thought or anything like that. And the AI lab was always an appealing. This was before, [inaudible 00:03:47]. This was in the ’70s. So the AI lab was always an appealing idea. And so when I went back to the AI lab following him and I saw the arm, I just thought, “This is it.”
Lex Fridman
It’s so interesting, the tension between the BCS, brain cognitive science approach to understanding intelligence, and the robotics approach to understanding intelligence.
It’s so interesting, the tension between the BCS, brain cognitive science approach to understanding intelligence, and the robotics approach to understanding intelligence.
Marc Raibert
Well, BCS is now morphed. They have the Center for Brains, minds and Machines, which is trying to bridge that gap. And even when I was there, David Maher was in the AI lab. David Maher had models of the brain that were appealing both to biologists but also to computer people. So he was a visitor in the AI lab at the time, and I guess he became full-time there.
Well, BCS is now morphed. They have the Center for Brains, minds and Machines, which is trying to bridge that gap. And even when I was there, David Maher was in the AI lab. David Maher had models of the brain that were appealing both to biologists but also to computer people. So he was a visitor in the AI lab at the time, and I guess he became full-time there.
So that was the first time a bridge was made between those two groups then the bridge kind of went away, and then there was another time in the ’80s. And then recently the last five or so years, there’s been a stronger connection.
Lex Fridman
You said you were always kind of a builder. What stands out to you in memory of a thing you’ve built, maybe a trivial thing that just kind of inspired you in the possibilities that this direction of work might hold?
You said you were always kind of a builder. What stands out to you in memory of a thing you’ve built, maybe a trivial thing that just kind of inspired you in the possibilities that this direction of work might hold?
Marc Raibert
We were just doing gadgets when we were kids. I have a friend, we were taking the… I don’t know if everybody remembers, but fluorescent lights had this little aluminum cylinder, I can’t even remember what it’s called now that you needed a starter, I think it was. And we would take those apart, fill them with match heads, put a tail on it and make it into little rockets.
We were just doing gadgets when we were kids. I have a friend, we were taking the… I don’t know if everybody remembers, but fluorescent lights had this little aluminum cylinder, I can’t even remember what it’s called now that you needed a starter, I think it was. And we would take those apart, fill them with match heads, put a tail on it and make it into little rockets.
Lex Fridman
So it wasn’t always about function, it was, well…
So it wasn’t always about function, it was, well…
Marc Raibert
Rocket was pretty [inaudible 00:05:32].
Rocket was pretty [inaudible 00:05:32].
Lex Fridman
I guess that is pretty functional. But yeah, I guess that is a question. How much was it about function versus just creating something cool?
I guess that is pretty functional. But yeah, I guess that is a question. How much was it about function versus just creating something cool?
Marc Raibert
I think it’s still a balance between those two. There was a time though, I guess I was probably already a professor or maybe late in graduate school, when I thought that function was everything and that mobility, dexterity, perception and intelligence, those are the key functionalities for robotics, that that’s what mattered. And nothing else mattered.
I think it’s still a balance between those two. There was a time though, I guess I was probably already a professor or maybe late in graduate school, when I thought that function was everything and that mobility, dexterity, perception and intelligence, those are the key functionalities for robotics, that that’s what mattered. And nothing else mattered.
And I even had kind of this platonic ideal that a robot, if you just looked at a robot and it wasn’t doing anything, it would look like a pile of junk, which a lot of my robots looked like in those days. But then when it started moving, you’d get the idea that it had some kind of life or some kind of interest in its movement, and I think we purposely even designed the machines not worrying about the aesthetics of the structure itself. But then it turns out that the aesthetics of the thing itself add and combine with the lifelike things that the robots can do. But the heart of it is making them do things that are interesting.
Legged robots
Lex Fridman
One of the things that underlies a lot of your work is that the robots you create, the systems you have created for over 40 years now have a kind of, they’re not cautious. So a lot of robots that people know about move about this world very cautiously, carefully, very afraid of the world. A lot of the robots you built, especially in the early days, were very aggressive under actuated. They’re hopping, they’re wild, moving quickly. So is there a philosophy under underlying that?
One of the things that underlies a lot of your work is that the robots you create, the systems you have created for over 40 years now have a kind of, they’re not cautious. So a lot of robots that people know about move about this world very cautiously, carefully, very afraid of the world. A lot of the robots you built, especially in the early days, were very aggressive under actuated. They’re hopping, they’re wild, moving quickly. So is there a philosophy under underlying that?
Marc Raibert
Well, let me tell you about how I got started on legs at all. When I was still a graduate student, I went to a conference. It was a biological legged locomotion conference, I think it was in Philadelphia. So it was all biomechanics people, researchers who would look at muscle and maybe neurons and things like that. They weren’t so much computational people, but they were more biomechanics and maybe there were a thousand people there.
Well, let me tell you about how I got started on legs at all. When I was still a graduate student, I went to a conference. It was a biological legged locomotion conference, I think it was in Philadelphia. So it was all biomechanics people, researchers who would look at muscle and maybe neurons and things like that. They weren’t so much computational people, but they were more biomechanics and maybe there were a thousand people there.
And I went to a talk. All the talks were about the body of either animals or people and respiration, things like that. But one talk was by a robotics guy, and he showed a six legged robot that walked very slowly. It always had at least three feet on the ground, so it worked like a table or a chair with tripod stability, and it moved really slowly.
And I just looked at that and said, wow, that’s wrong. That’s not anything like how people and animals work because we bounce and fly. We have to predict what’s going to happen in order to keep our balance when we’re taking a running step or something like that. We use the springiness in our legs, our muscles and our tendons and things like that as part of the story. The energy circulates. We don’t just throw it away every time.
I’m not sure I understood all that when I first thought, but I definitely got inspired to say, “Let’s try the opposite.” And I didn’t have a clue as to how to make a hopping robot work, not balance in 3D. In fact, when I started, it was all just about the energy of bouncing, and I was going to have a springy thing in the leg and some actuator so that you could get an energy regime going of bouncing.
And the idea that balance was an important part of it didn’t come until a little later. And then I made the pogo stick robots. Now I think that we need to do that in manipulation. If you look at robot manipulation, a community has been working on it for 50 years. We’re nowhere near human levels of manipulation. It’s come along, but I think it’s all too safe.
And I think trying to break out of that safety thing of static grasping. If you look at a lot of work that goes on, it’s about the geometry of the part, and then you figure out how to move your hand so that you can position it with respect to that, and then you grasp it carefully and then you move it. Well, that’s not anything like how people and animals work. We juggle in our hands, we hug multiple objects and can sort them. So.
Now to be fair, being more aggressive is going to mean things aren’t going to work very well for a while, so it’s a longer term approach to the problem, and that’s just theory now. Maybe that won’t pay off, but that’s how I’m trying to think about it, trying to encourage our group to go at it.
Lex Fridman
Well, we’ll talk about what it means to what is the actual thing we’re trying to optimize for a robot, sometimes, especially with human robot interaction, maybe flaws is a good thing. Perfection is not necessarily the right thing to be chasing. Just like you said, maybe being good at fumbling an object, being good at fumbling might be the right thing to optimize versus perfect modeling of the object and perfect movement of the arm to grasp that object as maybe perfection is not supposed to exist in the real world.
Well, we’ll talk about what it means to what is the actual thing we’re trying to optimize for a robot, sometimes, especially with human robot interaction, maybe flaws is a good thing. Perfection is not necessarily the right thing to be chasing. Just like you said, maybe being good at fumbling an object, being good at fumbling might be the right thing to optimize versus perfect modeling of the object and perfect movement of the arm to grasp that object as maybe perfection is not supposed to exist in the real world.
Marc Raibert
I don’t know if you know my friend Matt Mason, who is the director of the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon, and we go back to graduate school together, but he analyzed a movie of Julia Child’s doing a cooking thing, and she did, I think he said something like there were 40 different ways that she handled a thing and none of them was grasping. She would nudge, roll, flatten with her knife, things like that. And none of them was grasping.
I don’t know if you know my friend Matt Mason, who is the director of the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon, and we go back to graduate school together, but he analyzed a movie of Julia Child’s doing a cooking thing, and she did, I think he said something like there were 40 different ways that she handled a thing and none of them was grasping. She would nudge, roll, flatten with her knife, things like that. And none of them was grasping.
Lex Fridman
So okay, let’s go back to the early days. First of all, you’ve created and led the Leg Lab, the legendary Leg Lab at MIT. So what was that first hopping robot?
So okay, let’s go back to the early days. First of all, you’ve created and led the Leg Lab, the legendary Leg Lab at MIT. So what was that first hopping robot?
Marc Raibert
But first of all, the Leg Lab actually started at Carnegie Mellon.
But first of all, the Leg Lab actually started at Carnegie Mellon.
Lex Fridman
Carnegie Mellon.
Carnegie Mellon.
Marc Raibert
So I was a professor there starting in 1980, about 1986, so that’s where the first topping machines were built. I guess we got the first one working in about 1982, something like that. That was a simplified one. Then we got a three-dimensional one in 1983, the quadruped that we built at the Leg Lab, the first version was built in about 1984 or five, and really only got going about ’86 or so, and took years of development to get it to…
So I was a professor there starting in 1980, about 1986, so that’s where the first topping machines were built. I guess we got the first one working in about 1982, something like that. That was a simplified one. Then we got a three-dimensional one in 1983, the quadruped that we built at the Leg Lab, the first version was built in about 1984 or five, and really only got going about ’86 or so, and took years of development to get it to…
Lex Fridman
Let’s just pause here. For people who don’t know, I’m talking to Mark Weber, founder of Boston Dynamics. But before that, you were a professor developing some of the most incredible robots for 15 years. And before that, of course, a grad student and all that. So you’ve been doing this for a really long time. You skipped over this, but go to the first hopping robot. There’s videos of some of this.
Let’s just pause here. For people who don’t know, I’m talking to Mark Weber, founder of Boston Dynamics. But before that, you were a professor developing some of the most incredible robots for 15 years. And before that, of course, a grad student and all that. So you’ve been doing this for a really long time. You skipped over this, but go to the first hopping robot. There’s videos of some of this.
These are incredible robots. You talked about the very first step was to get a thing hopping up and down, and then you realized, well, balancing is a thing you should care about, and it’s actually a solvable problem. Can you just go through how to create that robot? What was involved in creating that robot?
Marc Raibert
Well, I’m going to start on not the technical side, but I guess we could call it the motivational side or the funding side. So before Carnegie Mellon, I was actually at JPL at the Jet Propulsion Lab for three years. And while I was there, I connected up with Ivan Sutherland, who is sometimes regarded as the father of computer graphics because of work he did both at MIT and then University of Utah and Evanston Sutherland.
Well, I’m going to start on not the technical side, but I guess we could call it the motivational side or the funding side. So before Carnegie Mellon, I was actually at JPL at the Jet Propulsion Lab for three years. And while I was there, I connected up with Ivan Sutherland, who is sometimes regarded as the father of computer graphics because of work he did both at MIT and then University of Utah and Evanston Sutherland.
Anyway, I got to know him and at one point he said he encouraged me to do some kind of project at Caltech, even though I was at JPL. Those are kind of related institutions. And so I thought about it and I made up a list of three possible projects, and I purposely made the top one and the bottom one really boring sounding. And in the middle I put Pogo stick robot. And when he looked at it, Ivan is a brilliant guy, brilliant engineer, and a real cultivator of people. He looked at it and knew right away what thing that was worth doing. And so he had an endowed chair, so he had about $3,000 that he gave me to build the first model, which I went I to the shop and with my own hands kind of made a first model, which didn’t work and was just a beginning shot at it.
Ivan and I took that to Washington. And in those days you could just walk into DARPA and walk down the hallway and see who’s there, and Ivan, who had been there in his previous life. And so we walked around and we looked in the offices. Of course, I didn’t know anything. I was basically a kid, but Ivan knew his way around, and we found Craig Fields in his office.
Craig later became the director of DARPA, but in those days, he was a program manager. And so we went in, I had a little Samsonite suitcase, which we opened, and it had just the skeleton of this one-legged hopping robot. And we showed it to him, and you could almost see the drool going down his chin of excitement. And he sent me $250,000. He said, “Okay, I want to fund this.”
And I was between institutions, I was just about to leave JPL, and I hadn’t decided yet where I was going next, and then when I landed at CMU, he sent $250,000, which in 1980 was a lot of research money.
Lex Fridman
Did you see the possibility of where this is going, why this is an important problem?
Did you see the possibility of where this is going, why this is an important problem?
Marc Raibert
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
It has to do with leg locomotion. I mean, it has to do with all these problems that the human body solves when we’re walking, for example. All the fundamentals are there.
It has to do with leg locomotion. I mean, it has to do with all these problems that the human body solves when we’re walking, for example. All the fundamentals are there.
Marc Raibert
Yeah, I think that was the motivation to try and get more at the fundamentals of how animals work, but the idea that it would result in machines that were anything practical like we’re making now, that wasn’t anywhere in my head. As an academic, I was mostly just trying to do the next thing, make some progress, impress my colleagues if I could.
Yeah, I think that was the motivation to try and get more at the fundamentals of how animals work, but the idea that it would result in machines that were anything practical like we’re making now, that wasn’t anywhere in my head. As an academic, I was mostly just trying to do the next thing, make some progress, impress my colleagues if I could.
Lex Fridman
And have fun.
And have fun.
Marc Raibert
And have fun.
And have fun.
Lex Fridman
Pogo stick robot.
Pogo stick robot.
Marc Raibert
Pogo stick robot.
Pogo stick robot.
Lex Fridman
So what was on the technical side? What are some of the challenges of getting to the point where we saw in the video the pogo stick robot that’s actually successfully hopping and then eventually doing flips and all this kind of stuff?
So what was on the technical side? What are some of the challenges of getting to the point where we saw in the video the pogo stick robot that’s actually successfully hopping and then eventually doing flips and all this kind of stuff?
Marc Raibert
Well, in the very early days, I needed some better engineering than I could do myself, and I hired Ben Brown. We each had our way of contributing to the design, and we came up with a thing that could start to work. I had some stupid ideas about how the actuation system should work, and we sorted that out.
Well, in the very early days, I needed some better engineering than I could do myself, and I hired Ben Brown. We each had our way of contributing to the design, and we came up with a thing that could start to work. I had some stupid ideas about how the actuation system should work, and we sorted that out.
It wasn’t that hard to make it balanced once you get the physical machine to be working well enough and have enough control over the degrees of freedom. We started out by having it floating on an inclined air table, and then that only gave us like six foot of travel, so once it started working, we switched to a thing that could run around the room on another device. It’s hard to explain these without you seeing them, but you probably know what I’m talking about, a planarize.
And then the next big step was to make it work in 3D, which that was really the scary part with these simple things. People had inverted pendulums at the time for years, and they could control them by driving a cart back and forth, but could you make it work in three dimensions while it’s bouncing and all that? But it turned out not to be that hard to do, at least at the level of performance we achieved at the time.
Lex Fridman
Okay. You mentioned inverted pendulum, but can you explain how a hopping stick in 3D can balance itself?
Okay. You mentioned inverted pendulum, but can you explain how a hopping stick in 3D can balance itself?
Marc Raibert
Yeah, sure.
Yeah, sure.
Lex Fridman
What does the actuation look like?
What does the actuation look like?
Marc Raibert
The simple story is that there’s three things going on. There’s something making it bounce. And we had a system that was estimating how high the robot was off the ground and using that. There’s energy that can be in three places in a pogo stick: one is in the spring, one is in the altitude, and the other is in the velocity. And so when at the top of the hop, it’s all in the height, so you could just measure how high you’re going, and thereby have an idea of a lot about the cycle, and you could decide whether to put more energy in or less. That’s one element.
The simple story is that there’s three things going on. There’s something making it bounce. And we had a system that was estimating how high the robot was off the ground and using that. There’s energy that can be in three places in a pogo stick: one is in the spring, one is in the altitude, and the other is in the velocity. And so when at the top of the hop, it’s all in the height, so you could just measure how high you’re going, and thereby have an idea of a lot about the cycle, and you could decide whether to put more energy in or less. That’s one element.
Then there’s a part that you decide where to put the foot. And if you think when you’re landing on the ground with respect to the center of mass. So if you think of a pole vaulter, the key thing the pole vaulter has to do is get its body to the right place when the pole gets stuck. If they’re too far forward, they kind of get thrown backwards. If they’re too far back, they go over. And what they need to do is get it so that they go mostly up to get over the thing. And high jumpers is the same kind of thing. So there’s a calculation about where to put the foot, and we did something relatively simple.
And then there’s a third part to keep the body at an attitude that’s upright, because if it gets too far, you could hop and just keep rotating around. But if it gets too far, then you run out of motion of the joints at the hips. So you have to do that. And we did that by applying a torque between the legs and the body. Every time the foot’s on the ground. You only can do it while the foot’s on the ground in the air. The physics don’t work out.
Lex Fridman
How far does it have to tilt before it’s too late to be able to balance itself or it’s impossible to balance itself, correct itself?
How far does it have to tilt before it’s too late to be able to balance itself or it’s impossible to balance itself, correct itself?
Marc Raibert
Well, you’re asking an interesting question because in those days, we didn’t actually optimize things and they probably could have gone much further than we did and then had higher performance, and we just kind of got a sketch of a solution and worked on that. And then in years since, some people working for us, some people working for others, people came up with all kinds of equations or algorithms for how to do a better job, be able to go faster.
Well, you’re asking an interesting question because in those days, we didn’t actually optimize things and they probably could have gone much further than we did and then had higher performance, and we just kind of got a sketch of a solution and worked on that. And then in years since, some people working for us, some people working for others, people came up with all kinds of equations or algorithms for how to do a better job, be able to go faster.
One of my students worked on getting things to go faster. Another one worked on climbing over obstacles. Because when you’re running on the open ground, it’s one thing; if you’re running up a stair, you have to adjust where you are, otherwise things don’t work out. You land your foot on the edge of the steps. There’s other degrees of freedom to control if you’re getting to more realistic, practical situations.
Lex Fridman
I think it’s really interesting to ask about the early days because believing in yourself, believing that there’s something interesting here. And then you mentioned finding somebody else, Ben Brown. What’s that like, finding other people with whom you can build this crazy idea and actually make it work?
I think it’s really interesting to ask about the early days because believing in yourself, believing that there’s something interesting here. And then you mentioned finding somebody else, Ben Brown. What’s that like, finding other people with whom you can build this crazy idea and actually make it work?
Marc Raibert
Probably the smartest thing I ever did is to find the other people. When I look at it now, I look at Boston Dynamics and all the really excellent engineering there, people who really make stuff work, I’m only the dreamer.
Probably the smartest thing I ever did is to find the other people. When I look at it now, I look at Boston Dynamics and all the really excellent engineering there, people who really make stuff work, I’m only the dreamer.
Lex Fridman
So when you talk about pogo stick robot or legged robots, whether it’s quadrupeds or humanoid robots, did people doubt that this is possible? Did you experience a lot of people around you kind of…
So when you talk about pogo stick robot or legged robots, whether it’s quadrupeds or humanoid robots, did people doubt that this is possible? Did you experience a lot of people around you kind of…
Marc Raibert
I don’t know if they doubted whether it was possible, but I think they thought it was a waste of time.
I don’t know if they doubted whether it was possible, but I think they thought it was a waste of time.
Lex Fridman
Oh, it’s not even an interesting problem.
Oh, it’s not even an interesting problem.
Marc Raibert
I think for a lot of people. I think it’s been both, though. Some people, I felt like they were saying, “Oh, why are you wasting your time on this stupid problem?” But then I’ve been at many things where people have told me it’s been an inspiration to go out and attack these harder things. And I think legged locomotion has turned out to be a useful thing.
I think for a lot of people. I think it’s been both, though. Some people, I felt like they were saying, “Oh, why are you wasting your time on this stupid problem?” But then I’ve been at many things where people have told me it’s been an inspiration to go out and attack these harder things. And I think legged locomotion has turned out to be a useful thing.
Lex Fridman
Did you ever have doubt about bringing Atlas to life, for example, or with Big Dog just every step of the way? Did you have doubt? This is too hard of a problem.
Did you ever have doubt about bringing Atlas to life, for example, or with Big Dog just every step of the way? Did you have doubt? This is too hard of a problem.
Marc Raibert
At first, I wasn’t an enthusiast for the humanoids. Again, it goes back to saying “what’s the functionality?” And the form wasn’t as important as the functionality. And also, there’s an aspect to humanoid robots that’s about about the cosmetics, where there isn’t really other functionality, and that kind of is off putting for me. As a roboticist, I think the functionality really matters. So probably that’s why I avoided the humanoid robots to start with.
At first, I wasn’t an enthusiast for the humanoids. Again, it goes back to saying “what’s the functionality?” And the form wasn’t as important as the functionality. And also, there’s an aspect to humanoid robots that’s about about the cosmetics, where there isn’t really other functionality, and that kind of is off putting for me. As a roboticist, I think the functionality really matters. So probably that’s why I avoided the humanoid robots to start with.
But I’ll tell you, after we started working on them, you could see that the connection and the impact with other people, whether they’re laypeople or even other technical people, there’s a special thing that goes on, even though most of the humanoid robots aren’t that much like a person.
Lex Fridman
But we anthropomorphize and we see the humanity. But also with Spot, you can see not the humanity, but whatever we find compelling about social interactions there in Spot, as well.
But we anthropomorphize and we see the humanity. But also with Spot, you can see not the humanity, but whatever we find compelling about social interactions there in Spot, as well.
Marc Raibert
Well. I’ll tell you, I go around giving talks and take Spot to a lot of them, and it’s amazing. The media likes to say that they’re terrifying and that people are afraid, and YouTube commenters like to say that it’s frightening. But when you take a Spot out there, maybe it’s self-selecting, but you get a crowd of people who want to take pictures, want to pose for selfies, want to operate the robot, want to pet it, want to put clothes on it. It’s amazing.
Well. I’ll tell you, I go around giving talks and take Spot to a lot of them, and it’s amazing. The media likes to say that they’re terrifying and that people are afraid, and YouTube commenters like to say that it’s frightening. But when you take a Spot out there, maybe it’s self-selecting, but you get a crowd of people who want to take pictures, want to pose for selfies, want to operate the robot, want to pet it, want to put clothes on it. It’s amazing.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I love Spot. So if we move around history a little bit, so you said, I think, in the early days of Boston Dynamics that you quietly worked on making a running version of Aibo, Sony’s robot dog.
Yeah, I love Spot. So if we move around history a little bit, so you said, I think, in the early days of Boston Dynamics that you quietly worked on making a running version of Aibo, Sony’s robot dog.
Marc Raibert
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It’s just an interesting little tidbit of history for me. What stands out to your memory from that task? For people who don’t know, that little dog robot moves slowly. How did that become Big Dog? What was involved there? What was the dance between how do we make this cute little dog versus a thing that can actually carry a lot of payload and move fast and stuff like that?
It’s just an interesting little tidbit of history for me. What stands out to your memory from that task? For people who don’t know, that little dog robot moves slowly. How did that become Big Dog? What was involved there? What was the dance between how do we make this cute little dog versus a thing that can actually carry a lot of payload and move fast and stuff like that?
Marc Raibert
What the connection was is that at that point, Boston Dynamics was mostly a physics-based simulation company. So when I left MIT to start Boston Dynamics, there was a few years of overlap, but the concept wasn’t to start a robot company. The concept was to use this dynamic simulation tool that we developed to do robotics for other things. But working with Sony, we got back into robotics by doing the IBO Runner, we made some tools for programming Curio, which was a small humanoid this big that could do some dancing and other kinds of fun stuff. And I don’t think it ever reached the market, even though they did show it. When I look back, I say that we got us back where we belonged.
What the connection was is that at that point, Boston Dynamics was mostly a physics-based simulation company. So when I left MIT to start Boston Dynamics, there was a few years of overlap, but the concept wasn’t to start a robot company. The concept was to use this dynamic simulation tool that we developed to do robotics for other things. But working with Sony, we got back into robotics by doing the IBO Runner, we made some tools for programming Curio, which was a small humanoid this big that could do some dancing and other kinds of fun stuff. And I don’t think it ever reached the market, even though they did show it. When I look back, I say that we got us back where we belonged.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, you rediscovered the soul of the company.
Yeah, you rediscovered the soul of the company.
Marc Raibert
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
And so from there, it was always about robots.
And so from there, it was always about robots.
Marc Raibert
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So you started Boston Dynamics in 1992.
So you started Boston Dynamics in 1992.
Boston Dynamics
Marc Raibert
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
What are some fond memories from the early days?
What are some fond memories from the early days?
Marc Raibert
One of the robots that we built wasn’t actually a robot, it was a surgical simulator, but it had force feedback, so it had all the techniques of robotics, and you look down into this mirror, it actually was, and it looked like you were looking down onto the body you were working on. Your hands were underneath the mirror where you were looking, and you had tools in your hands that were connected up to these force feedback devices made by another MIT spin out, Sensible Technologies.
One of the robots that we built wasn’t actually a robot, it was a surgical simulator, but it had force feedback, so it had all the techniques of robotics, and you look down into this mirror, it actually was, and it looked like you were looking down onto the body you were working on. Your hands were underneath the mirror where you were looking, and you had tools in your hands that were connected up to these force feedback devices made by another MIT spin out, Sensible Technologies.
Marc Raibert
Another MIT spin out sensible technologies. So they made the force feedback device, we attached the tools and we wrote all the software and did all the graphics. So we had 3D computer graphics. It was in the old days, this was in the late 90s when you had a Silicon Graphics computer that was about this big. It was the heater in the office basically.
Another MIT spin out sensible technologies. So they made the force feedback device, we attached the tools and we wrote all the software and did all the graphics. So we had 3D computer graphics. It was in the old days, this was in the late 90s when you had a Silicon Graphics computer that was about this big. It was the heater in the office basically.
And we were doing surgical operations’ anastomosis, which was stitching tubes together. Tubes like blood vessels or other things in their body. And you could feel, you could see the tissues move. And it was really exciting. And the idea was to make a trainer to teach surgeons how to do stuff. We built a scoring system because we’d interviewed surgeons that told us what you’re supposed to do and what you’re not supposed to do.
You’re not supposed to tear the tissue, you’re not supposed to touch it in any place except for where you’re trying to engage. There were a bunch of rules. So we built this thing and took it to a trade show, a surgical trade show, and the surgeons were practically lined up. Well, we kept a score and we posted their scores on a video game. And those guys are so competitive that they really, really loved doing it.
And they would come around and they see someone’s score was higher there, so they would come back. But we figured out shortly after, that we thought surgeons were going to pay us to get trained on these things and the surgeons thought we should pay them so they could teach us about the thing. And there was no money from the surgeons. And we looked at it and thought, well, maybe we could sell it to hospitals that would train their surgeons.
And then we said, at the time we were probably a 12 person company or maybe 15 people, I don’t remember, there’s no way we could go after a marketing activity. The company was all bootstrapped in those years. We never had investors until Google bought us, which was after 20 years. So we didn’t have any resources to go after hospitals. So one day, Rob and I were looking at that and we’d built another simulator for knee arthroscopy and we said, “This isn’t going to work.” And we killed it. And we moved on. And that was really a milestone in the company because we sort of understood who we were and what would work and what wouldn’t. Even though technically it was really a fascinating thing.
Lex Fridman
What was that meeting like, where you’re just sitting at a table, “You know what? We’re going to pivot completely. We’re going to let go of this thing we put so much hard work into and then go back to the thing it came from.”
What was that meeting like, where you’re just sitting at a table, “You know what? We’re going to pivot completely. We’re going to let go of this thing we put so much hard work into and then go back to the thing it came from.”
Marc Raibert
It just always felt right once we did it.
It just always felt right once we did it.
Lex Fridman
Just looked at each other and said, “Let’s build robots.”
Just looked at each other and said, “Let’s build robots.”
BigDog
Marc Raibert
Yeah. What was the first robot you built under the flag of Boston Dynamics? BigDog?
Yeah. What was the first robot you built under the flag of Boston Dynamics? BigDog?
Marc Raibert
Well, there was the Aibo runner, but it wasn’t even a whole robot. We took off the legs on Aibos and attached legs we’ve made. And we got that working and showed it to the Sony people. We worked pretty closely with Sony in those years. One of the interesting things is that it was before the internet and Zoom and anything like that.
Well, there was the Aibo runner, but it wasn’t even a whole robot. We took off the legs on Aibos and attached legs we’ve made. And we got that working and showed it to the Sony people. We worked pretty closely with Sony in those years. One of the interesting things is that it was before the internet and Zoom and anything like that.
So we had six ISDN lines installed and we would have a telecon every week that worked at very low frame rates, something like 10 hertz. English across the boundary with Japan was a challenge trying to understand what each of us was saying and have meetings every week for several years doing that.
And it was a pleasure working with them. They were really supporters. They seemed to like us and what we were doing. That was the real transition from us being a simulation company into being a robotics company again.
Lex Fridman
It was a quadruplet. The legs were four legs digital legs?
It was a quadruplet. The legs were four legs digital legs?
Marc Raibert
Yeah, no, four legs.
Yeah, no, four legs.
Lex Fridman
And what did you learn from that experience of building basically a fast moving quadruplet?
And what did you learn from that experience of building basically a fast moving quadruplet?
Marc Raibert
Mostly we learned that something that small doesn’t look very exciting when it’s running. It’s like it’s scampering and you had to watch a slow mo for it to look like it was interesting. If you watch it fast, it was just like a-
Mostly we learned that something that small doesn’t look very exciting when it’s running. It’s like it’s scampering and you had to watch a slow mo for it to look like it was interesting. If you watch it fast, it was just like a-
Lex Fridman
That’s funny.
That’s funny.
Marc Raibert
One of my things was to show stuff in video from the very early days of the hopping machines. And so I was always focused on how’s this going to look through the Viewfinder and running Aibo didn’t look so cool through the Viewfinder.
One of my things was to show stuff in video from the very early days of the hopping machines. And so I was always focused on how’s this going to look through the Viewfinder and running Aibo didn’t look so cool through the Viewfinder.
Lex Fridman
So what came next? What was a big next milestone in terms of a robot you built?
So what came next? What was a big next milestone in terms of a robot you built?
Marc Raibert
I mean, you got to say that BigDog sort of put us on the map and got our heads really pulled together. We scaled up the company. BigDog was the result of Alan Rudolph at DARPA starting a biodynamics program. And he put out a request for proposals and I think there were 42 proposals written and three got funded.
I mean, you got to say that BigDog sort of put us on the map and got our heads really pulled together. We scaled up the company. BigDog was the result of Alan Rudolph at DARPA starting a biodynamics program. And he put out a request for proposals and I think there were 42 proposals written and three got funded.
One was BigDog, one was a climbing robot rise, and that put things in motion. We hired Martin Bueller, he was a professor in Montreal at McGill. He was incredibly important for getting BigDog out of the lab and into the mud, which was a key step to really be willing to go out there out and build it, break it, fix it, which is sort of one of our mottos at the company.
Lex Fridman
So testing it in the real world. For people who don’t know BigDog, maybe you can correct me, but it’s a big quadruplet four-legged robot. It looks big, could probably carry a lot of weight. Not the most weight that Boston Dynamics have built, but a lot.
So testing it in the real world. For people who don’t know BigDog, maybe you can correct me, but it’s a big quadruplet four-legged robot. It looks big, could probably carry a lot of weight. Not the most weight that Boston Dynamics have built, but a lot.
Marc Raibert
Well, it’s the first thing that worked. So let’s see, if we go back to the leg lab, we built a quadruplet that could do many of the things that BigDog did, but it had a hydraulic pump sitting in the room with hoses connected to the robot. It had a VAX computer in the next room. It needed its own room because it was this giant thing with air conditioning and it had this very complicated bus connected to the robot.
Well, it’s the first thing that worked. So let’s see, if we go back to the leg lab, we built a quadruplet that could do many of the things that BigDog did, but it had a hydraulic pump sitting in the room with hoses connected to the robot. It had a VAX computer in the next room. It needed its own room because it was this giant thing with air conditioning and it had this very complicated bus connected to the robot.
And the robot itself just had the actuators. It had gyroscopes for sensing and some other sensors, but all the power and computing was off board. BigDog had all that stuff integrated on the platform. It had a gasoline engine for power, which was a very complicated thing to undertake. It had to convert the rotation of the engine into hydraulic power, which is how we actuated it. So there was a lot of learning just on building the physical robot and the system integration for that. And then there was the controls of it.
Lex Fridman
So for BigDog, you brought it all together onto one platform so-
So for BigDog, you brought it all together onto one platform so-
Marc Raibert
You could take it out in the woods.
You could take it out in the woods.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and you did.
Yeah, and you did.
Marc Raibert
We did. We spent a lot of time down at the Marine Corps base in Quantico where there was a trail called the Guadalcanal Trail. And our milestone that DARPA had specified was that we could go on this one particular trail that involved a lot of challenge. And we spent a lot of time. Our team spent a lot of time down there hiking. Those were fun days.
We did. We spent a lot of time down at the Marine Corps base in Quantico where there was a trail called the Guadalcanal Trail. And our milestone that DARPA had specified was that we could go on this one particular trail that involved a lot of challenge. And we spent a lot of time. Our team spent a lot of time down there hiking. Those were fun days.
Lex Fridman
Hiking with the robot. So what did you learn about what it takes to balance a robot like that on a trail, on a hiking trail in the woods? Basically, forget the woods. Just the real world. That’s the big leap into testing in the real world.
Hiking with the robot. So what did you learn about what it takes to balance a robot like that on a trail, on a hiking trail in the woods? Basically, forget the woods. Just the real world. That’s the big leap into testing in the real world.
Marc Raibert
As challenging as the woods were, working inside of a home or in an office is really harder because when you’re in the woods, you can actually take any path up the hill. All you have to do is avoid the obstacles. There’s no such thing as damaging the woods, at least to first order. Whereas if you’re in a house, you can’t leave scuff marks, you can’t bang into the walls. The robots aren’t very comfortable bumping into the walls, especially in the early days.
As challenging as the woods were, working inside of a home or in an office is really harder because when you’re in the woods, you can actually take any path up the hill. All you have to do is avoid the obstacles. There’s no such thing as damaging the woods, at least to first order. Whereas if you’re in a house, you can’t leave scuff marks, you can’t bang into the walls. The robots aren’t very comfortable bumping into the walls, especially in the early days.
So I think those were actually bigger challenges. Once we faced them, it was mostly getting the systems to work well enough together, the hardware systems to work. And the controls. In those days, we did have a human operator who did all the visual perception going up the Guadalcanal Trail. So there was an operator who was right there who was very skilled even though the robot was balancing itself and placing its own feet, if the operator didn’t do the right thing, it wouldn’t go.
But years later, we went back with one of the electric, the precursor to Spot, and we had advanced the controls and everything so much that a complete amateur could operate the robot the first time up and down and up and down. Whereas it taken us years to get there in the previous robot.
Lex Fridman
So if you fast-forward, BigDog eventually became Spot?
So if you fast-forward, BigDog eventually became Spot?
Marc Raibert
So BigDog became LS3, which is the big load carrying one.
So BigDog became LS3, which is the big load carrying one.
Lex Fridman
Just a quick pause, it can carry 400 pounds?
Just a quick pause, it can carry 400 pounds?
Marc Raibert
It was designed to carry 400. But we had it carrying about a thousand pounds one time.
It was designed to carry 400. But we had it carrying about a thousand pounds one time.
Lex Fridman
Of course you did. Just to make sure.
Of course you did. Just to make sure.
Marc Raibert
We had one carrying the other one. We had two of them, so we had one carrying the other one. There’s a little clip of that. We should put that out somewhere. That’s from 20 years ago.
We had one carrying the other one. We had two of them, so we had one carrying the other one. There’s a little clip of that. We should put that out somewhere. That’s from 20 years ago.
Lex Fridman
Wow. And it can go for very long distances? You can travel the 20 miles.
Wow. And it can go for very long distances? You can travel the 20 miles.
Marc Raibert
Yeah. Gasoline.
Yeah. Gasoline.
Lex Fridman
Gasoline, yeah. And that event just… Okay, sorry. So LS3 then how did that lead to Spot?
Gasoline, yeah. And that event just… Okay, sorry. So LS3 then how did that lead to Spot?
Marc Raibert
So BigDog and LS3 had engine power and hydraulic actuation. Then we made a robot that was electric power. So there’s a battery driving a motor, driving a pump, but still hydraulic actuation. Larry asked us, “Could you make something that weighed 60 pounds, that would not be so intimidating if you had it in a house where there were people.”
So BigDog and LS3 had engine power and hydraulic actuation. Then we made a robot that was electric power. So there’s a battery driving a motor, driving a pump, but still hydraulic actuation. Larry asked us, “Could you make something that weighed 60 pounds, that would not be so intimidating if you had it in a house where there were people.”
And that was the inspiration behind the spot pretty much as it exists today. We did a prototype the same size that was the first all electric, non-hydraulic robot.
Lex Fridman
What was the conversation with Larry Page about? Here’s a guy that is very product focused and can see a vision for what the future holds. That’s just interesting aside, what was the brainstorm about the future of robotics with him?
What was the conversation with Larry Page about? Here’s a guy that is very product focused and can see a vision for what the future holds. That’s just interesting aside, what was the brainstorm about the future of robotics with him?
Marc Raibert
I mean, it was almost as simple as what I just said. We were having meeting, he said, “Do you think you could make a smaller one that wouldn’t be so intimidating like a big dog if it was in your house?” And I said, “Yeah, we could do that.” And we started and did.
I mean, it was almost as simple as what I just said. We were having meeting, he said, “Do you think you could make a smaller one that wouldn’t be so intimidating like a big dog if it was in your house?” And I said, “Yeah, we could do that.” And we started and did.
Hydraulic actuation
Lex Fridman
Is there a lot of technical challenges to go from hydraulic to electric?
Is there a lot of technical challenges to go from hydraulic to electric?
Marc Raibert
I had been in love with hydraulics and still love hydraulics. It’s a great technology. It’s too bad that somehow the world out there looks at it like it’s old-fashioned or that it’s icky. And it’s true that you do. It is very hard to keep it from having some amount of dripping from time to time. But if you look at the performance, how strong you can get in a lightweight package, and of course we did a huge amount of innovation.
I had been in love with hydraulics and still love hydraulics. It’s a great technology. It’s too bad that somehow the world out there looks at it like it’s old-fashioned or that it’s icky. And it’s true that you do. It is very hard to keep it from having some amount of dripping from time to time. But if you look at the performance, how strong you can get in a lightweight package, and of course we did a huge amount of innovation.
Most of hydraulic control, that is the valve that controls the flow of oil, had been designed in the 50s for airplanes. It had been made robust enough, safe enough that you could count on it so that humans could fly in airplanes and very little innovation had happened that might not be fair to the people who make the valves. I’m sure that they did innovate, but the basic had stayed the same and there was so much more you could do.
And so our engineers designed valves, the ones that are in Atlas for instance, that had new kinds of circuits, they sort of did some of the computing that could get you much more efficient use. They were much smaller and lighter so the whole robot could be smaller and lighter. We made a hydraulic power supply that had a bunch of components integrated in this tiny package.
It’s about this big, the size of a football weighs five kilograms and it produces five kilowatts of power. Of course it has to have a battery operating, but it’s got a motor, a pump filters, heat exchanger to keep it cool. Some valves all in this tiny little package. So hydraulics could still have a ways to go.
Natural movement
Lex Fridman
One of the things that stands out about the robots Boston Dynamics have created is how beautiful the movement is, how natural the walking is, and running is, even flipping is, throwing is. So maybe you can talk about what’s involved in making it look natural.
One of the things that stands out about the robots Boston Dynamics have created is how beautiful the movement is, how natural the walking is, and running is, even flipping is, throwing is. So maybe you can talk about what’s involved in making it look natural.
Marc Raibert
Well, I think having good hardware is part of the story and people who think you don’t need to innovate hardware anymore are wrong, in my opinion. So I think one of the things, certainly in the early years for me, taking a dynamic approach where you think about what’s the evolution of the motion of the thing going to be in the future and having a prediction of that that’s used at the time that you’re giving signals to it, as opposed to it all being sing, which is sing is sort of backward looking. It says, okay, where am I now? I’m going to try and adjust for that. But you really need to think about what’s coming.
Well, I think having good hardware is part of the story and people who think you don’t need to innovate hardware anymore are wrong, in my opinion. So I think one of the things, certainly in the early years for me, taking a dynamic approach where you think about what’s the evolution of the motion of the thing going to be in the future and having a prediction of that that’s used at the time that you’re giving signals to it, as opposed to it all being sing, which is sing is sort of backward looking. It says, okay, where am I now? I’m going to try and adjust for that. But you really need to think about what’s coming.
Lex Fridman
So how far ahead you do, you have to look in time.
So how far ahead you do, you have to look in time.
Marc Raibert
It’s interesting. I think that the number is only a couple of seconds for Spot. So there’s a limited horizon type approach where you’re recalculating assuming what’s going to happen in the next second or second and a half. And then you keep iterating at the next, even though a 10th of a second later you’ll say, okay, let’s do that again and see what’s happening.
It’s interesting. I think that the number is only a couple of seconds for Spot. So there’s a limited horizon type approach where you’re recalculating assuming what’s going to happen in the next second or second and a half. And then you keep iterating at the next, even though a 10th of a second later you’ll say, okay, let’s do that again and see what’s happening.
And you’re looking at what the obstacles are, where the feet are going to be placed. You have to coordinate a lot of things. If you have obstacles and you’re balancing at the same time and it’s that limited horizon type calculation that’s doing a lot of that. But if you’re doing something like a somersault, you’re looking out a lot further. If you want to stick the landing, you have to, at the time of launch, have momentum and rotation, all those things coordinated so that a landing is within reach.
Lex Fridman
How hard is it to stick a landing? I mean, it’s very much under actuated. In the air, you don’t have as much control about anything. So how hard is it to get that to work? First of all, did flips with a hopping robot.
How hard is it to stick a landing? I mean, it’s very much under actuated. In the air, you don’t have as much control about anything. So how hard is it to get that to work? First of all, did flips with a hopping robot.
Marc Raibert
If you look at the first time we ever made a robot do a somersault, it was in a planer robot. It had a boom. So it was restricted to the surface of a sphere. We call that planer. So it could move fore-and-aft, it could go up and down and it could rotate. And so the calculation of what you need to do to stick a landing isn’t all that complicated. You have to get time to make the rotation.
If you look at the first time we ever made a robot do a somersault, it was in a planer robot. It had a boom. So it was restricted to the surface of a sphere. We call that planer. So it could move fore-and-aft, it could go up and down and it could rotate. And so the calculation of what you need to do to stick a landing isn’t all that complicated. You have to get time to make the rotation.
So how high you jump gives you time. You look at how quickly you can rotate. And so if you get those two right, then when you land, you have the feet in the right place and you have to get rid of all that rotational and linear momentum. But that’s not too hard to figure out. And we made back in about 1985 or six, I can’t remember, we had a simple robot doing somersaults.
To do it in 3D, really the calculation is the same. You just have to be balancing in the other degrees of freedom. If you’re just doing a somersault, it’s just a plainer thing. Ron Robert was my graduate student and we were at MIT, which is when we made a two-legged robot do a 3D somersault for the first time. There, in order to get enough rotation rate you needed to do tucking also, withdraw the legs in order to accelerate it.
And he did some really fascinating work on how you stabilize more complicated maneuvers. You remember he was a gymnast at Champion Gymnast before he’d come to me. So he had the physical abilities and he was an engineer, so he could translate some of that into the math and the algorithms that you need to do that.
Lex Fridman
He knew how humans do it. You just have to get robots to do the same.
He knew how humans do it. You just have to get robots to do the same.
Marc Raibert
Unfortunately though, humans don’t really know how they do it, right. We are coached, we have ways of learning, but do we really understand in a physics way what we’re doing? Probably most gymnasts and athletes don’t know.
Unfortunately though, humans don’t really know how they do it, right. We are coached, we have ways of learning, but do we really understand in a physics way what we’re doing? Probably most gymnasts and athletes don’t know.
Lex Fridman
So in some way, by building robots, you are in part understanding how humans do walking. Most of us walk without considering how we walk really and how we make it so natural and efficient, all those kinds of things.
So in some way, by building robots, you are in part understanding how humans do walking. Most of us walk without considering how we walk really and how we make it so natural and efficient, all those kinds of things.
Marc Raibert
Atlas still doesn’t walk like a person and it still doesn’t walk quite as gracefully as a person. Even though it’s been getting closer and closer. The running might be close to a human, but the walking is still a challenge.
Atlas still doesn’t walk like a person and it still doesn’t walk quite as gracefully as a person. Even though it’s been getting closer and closer. The running might be close to a human, but the walking is still a challenge.
Lex Fridman
That’s interesting, right? That running is closer to a human. It just shows that the more aggressive and the more you leap into the unknown, the more natural it is. I mean, walking is kind of falling always right?
That’s interesting, right? That running is closer to a human. It just shows that the more aggressive and the more you leap into the unknown, the more natural it is. I mean, walking is kind of falling always right?
Marc Raibert
And something weird about the knee that you can do this folding and unfolding and get it to work out just a human can get it to work out just right, there’s compliances. Compliance means springiness in the design that are important to how it all works. Well, we used to have a motto at the Boston Dynamics in the early days, which was you have to run before you can walk.
And something weird about the knee that you can do this folding and unfolding and get it to work out just a human can get it to work out just right, there’s compliances. Compliance means springiness in the design that are important to how it all works. Well, we used to have a motto at the Boston Dynamics in the early days, which was you have to run before you can walk.
Lex Fridman
That’s a good motto because you also had Wildcat, which was one of along the way towards Spot, which is a quadruplet that went 19 miles an hour on flat terrain. Is that the fastest you’ve ever built?
That’s a good motto because you also had Wildcat, which was one of along the way towards Spot, which is a quadruplet that went 19 miles an hour on flat terrain. Is that the fastest you’ve ever built?
Marc Raibert
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Lex Fridman
Might be the fastest quadruplet in the world. I don’t know.
Might be the fastest quadruplet in the world. I don’t know.
Marc Raibert
For a quadruplet, probably. Of course, it was probably the loudest too. So we had this little racing go-kart engine on it, and we would get people from three buildings away sending us… Complaining about how loud it was.
For a quadruplet, probably. Of course, it was probably the loudest too. So we had this little racing go-kart engine on it, and we would get people from three buildings away sending us… Complaining about how loud it was.
Leg Lab
Lex Fridman
So at the leg lab, I believe most of the robots didn’t have knees. How do you figure out what is the right number of actuators? What are the joints to have? What do you need to have? We humans have knees and all kinds of interesting stuff on the feet. The toe is an important part, I guess, for humans, or maybe it’s not.
So at the leg lab, I believe most of the robots didn’t have knees. How do you figure out what is the right number of actuators? What are the joints to have? What do you need to have? We humans have knees and all kinds of interesting stuff on the feet. The toe is an important part, I guess, for humans, or maybe it’s not.
I injured my toe recently and it made running very unpleasant. So that seems to be important. So how do you figure out for efficiency, for function, for aesthetics, how many joints to have, how many actuaries to have?
Marc Raibert
Well, it’s always a balance between wanting to get where you really want to get and what’s practical to do based on your resources or what you know and all that. So I mean, the whole idea of the pogo stick was to do a simplification. Obviously, it didn’t look like a human. I think a technical scientist could appreciate that we were capturing some of the things that are important in human locomotion without it looking like it, without having a knee, an ankle.
Well, it’s always a balance between wanting to get where you really want to get and what’s practical to do based on your resources or what you know and all that. So I mean, the whole idea of the pogo stick was to do a simplification. Obviously, it didn’t look like a human. I think a technical scientist could appreciate that we were capturing some of the things that are important in human locomotion without it looking like it, without having a knee, an ankle.
I’ll tell you the first sketch that Ben Brown made when we were talking about building this thing, was a very complicated thing with zillions of springs, lots of joints. It looked much more like a kangaroo or an ostrich or something like that. Things we were paying a lot of attention to at the time. So my job was to say, okay, well let’s do something simpler to get started and maybe we’ll get there at some point.
Lex Fridman
I just love the idea that you two were studying kangaroos and ostriches.
I just love the idea that you two were studying kangaroos and ostriches.
Marc Raibert
Oh yeah, we did. We filmed and digitized data from horses. I did a dissection of ostrich at one point, which has absolutely remarkable legs.
Oh yeah, we did. We filmed and digitized data from horses. I did a dissection of ostrich at one point, which has absolutely remarkable legs.
Lex Fridman
Dumb question. Do ostriches have a lot of musculature on the legs or no?
Dumb question. Do ostriches have a lot of musculature on the legs or no?
Marc Raibert
Most of it’s up in the feathers, but there’s a huge amount going on in the feathers, including a knee joint. The knee joint’s way up there. The thing that’s halfway down the leg that looks like a backwards knee is actually the ankle. The thing on the ground which looks like the foot is actually the toes. It’s an extended toe.
Most of it’s up in the feathers, but there’s a huge amount going on in the feathers, including a knee joint. The knee joint’s way up there. The thing that’s halfway down the leg that looks like a backwards knee is actually the ankle. The thing on the ground which looks like the foot is actually the toes. It’s an extended toe.
Lex Fridman
Fascinating.
Fascinating.
Marc Raibert
But the basic morphology is the same in all these animals.
But the basic morphology is the same in all these animals.
Lex Fridman
What do you think is the most beautiful movement of an animal? What animal you think is the coolest land animal? That’s cool because fish is pretty cool. Like the fish in crystal water, but legged locomotion.
What do you think is the most beautiful movement of an animal? What animal you think is the coolest land animal? That’s cool because fish is pretty cool. Like the fish in crystal water, but legged locomotion.
Marc Raibert
The slow mos of cheetahs running are incredible. There’s so much back motion and grace, and of course they’re moving very fast. The animals running away from the cheetah are pretty exciting. The pronghorn, which they do this all four legs at once, jump called the prog, especially if there’s a group of them, to confuse whoever’s chasing them.
The slow mos of cheetahs running are incredible. There’s so much back motion and grace, and of course they’re moving very fast. The animals running away from the cheetah are pretty exciting. The pronghorn, which they do this all four legs at once, jump called the prog, especially if there’s a group of them, to confuse whoever’s chasing them.
Lex Fridman
So they do a misdirection type of thing?
So they do a misdirection type of thing?
Marc Raibert
Yep. They do a misdirection thing. The front on views of the cheetahs running fast where the tail is whipping around to help in the turns to help stabilize in the turns. That’s pretty exciting.
Yep. They do a misdirection thing. The front on views of the cheetahs running fast where the tail is whipping around to help in the turns to help stabilize in the turns. That’s pretty exciting.
Lex Fridman
Because they spend a lot of time in the air, I guess, as they’re running that fast.
Because they spend a lot of time in the air, I guess, as they’re running that fast.
Marc Raibert
But they also turn very fast.
But they also turn very fast.
Lex Fridman
Is that a tail thing or is do you have to have contact with ground?
Is that a tail thing or is do you have to have contact with ground?
Marc Raibert
Everything in the body is probably helping turn because they’re chasing something that’s trying to get away. That’s also zigzagging around. But I would be remiss if I didn’t say humans are pretty good too. You watch gymnasts, especially these days, they’re doing just incredible stuff.
Everything in the body is probably helping turn because they’re chasing something that’s trying to get away. That’s also zigzagging around. But I would be remiss if I didn’t say humans are pretty good too. You watch gymnasts, especially these days, they’re doing just incredible stuff.
Lex Fridman
Well, especially Olympic level gymnasts. See, but there could be cheetahs that are Olympic level. We might be watching the average cheetah versus there could be a really special cheetah that can do-
Well, especially Olympic level gymnasts. See, but there could be cheetahs that are Olympic level. We might be watching the average cheetah versus there could be a really special cheetah that can do-
Marc Raibert
You’re right.
You’re right.
Lex Fridman
When did the knees first come into play in you building legged robots?
When did the knees first come into play in you building legged robots?
Marc Raibert
In BigDog. BigDog came first and then LittleDog was later. And there’s a big compromise there. Human knees have multiple muscles and you could argue that there’s… I mean, it’s a technical thing about negative work when you’re contracting a joint, but you’re pushing out, that’s negative work. And if you don’t have a place to store that, it can be very expensive to do negative work.
In BigDog. BigDog came first and then LittleDog was later. And there’s a big compromise there. Human knees have multiple muscles and you could argue that there’s… I mean, it’s a technical thing about negative work when you’re contracting a joint, but you’re pushing out, that’s negative work. And if you don’t have a place to store that, it can be very expensive to do negative work.
And in BigDog, there was no place to store negative work in the knees. But BigDog also had pogo stick springs down below. So part of the action was to comply in a bouncing motion. Later on in Spot, we took that out. As we got further and further away from the leg lab, we had more energy-driven controls.
Lex Fridman
Is there something to be said about needs that go forward versus backward?
Is there something to be said about needs that go forward versus backward?
Marc Raibert
Sure. There’s this idea called passive dynamics, which says that although you can use computers and actuators to make a motion, a mechanical system can make a motion just by itself if it gets stimulated the right way. So Tad McGeer, I think in the mid 80s, maybe it was in the late 80s, started to work on that.
Sure. There’s this idea called passive dynamics, which says that although you can use computers and actuators to make a motion, a mechanical system can make a motion just by itself if it gets stimulated the right way. So Tad McGeer, I think in the mid 80s, maybe it was in the late 80s, started to work on that.
And he made this legged system that could walk down an incline plane where the legs folded and unfolded and swung forward, do the whole walking motion where there was no computer. There were some adjustments to the mechanics so that there were dampers and springs in some places that helped the mechanical action happen. It was essentially a mechanical computer. And the interesting idea there is that it’s not all about the brain dictating to the body what the body should do. The body is a participant in the motion.
Lex Fridman
So a great design for a robot has a mechanical component where the movement is efficient even without a brain?
So a great design for a robot has a mechanical component where the movement is efficient even without a brain?
Marc Raibert
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
How do you design that?
How do you design that?
Marc Raibert
I think that these days most robots aren’t doing that. Most robots are basically using the computer to govern the motion. Now, the brain though is taking into account what the mechanical thing can do and how it’s going to behave. Otherwise, it would have to really forcefully move everything around all the time which probably some solutions do, but I think you end up with a more efficient and more graceful thing if you’re taking into account what the machine wants to do.
I think that these days most robots aren’t doing that. Most robots are basically using the computer to govern the motion. Now, the brain though is taking into account what the mechanical thing can do and how it’s going to behave. Otherwise, it would have to really forcefully move everything around all the time which probably some solutions do, but I think you end up with a more efficient and more graceful thing if you’re taking into account what the machine wants to do.
AI Institute
Lex Fridman
So this might be a good place to mention that you’re now leading up the Boston Dynamics AI Institute newly formed, which is focused more on designing the robots of the future. I think one of the things, maybe you can tell me the big vision for what’s going on, but one of the things is this idea that hardware still matters with organic design and so on. Maybe before that, can you zoom out and tell me what the vision is for the AI Institute?
So this might be a good place to mention that you’re now leading up the Boston Dynamics AI Institute newly formed, which is focused more on designing the robots of the future. I think one of the things, maybe you can tell me the big vision for what’s going on, but one of the things is this idea that hardware still matters with organic design and so on. Maybe before that, can you zoom out and tell me what the vision is for the AI Institute?
Marc Raibert
I like to talk about intelligence having two parts, an athletic part and a cognitive part.
I like to talk about intelligence having two parts, an athletic part and a cognitive part.
Marc Raibert
An athletic part and a cognitive part. I think Boston Dynamics, in my view, has set the standard for what athletic intelligence can be. And it has to do with all the things we’ve been talking about, the mechanical design, the real-time control, the energetics and that kind of stuff. But obviously, people have another kind of intelligence, and animals have another kind of intelligence. We can make a plan. Our meeting started at 9:30, I looked up on Google Maps how long it took to walk over here. It was 20 minutes, so I decided, okay, I’d leave my house at nine, which is what I did. Simple intelligence, but we use that kind of stuff all the time. It’s what we think of as going on in our heads.
An athletic part and a cognitive part. I think Boston Dynamics, in my view, has set the standard for what athletic intelligence can be. And it has to do with all the things we’ve been talking about, the mechanical design, the real-time control, the energetics and that kind of stuff. But obviously, people have another kind of intelligence, and animals have another kind of intelligence. We can make a plan. Our meeting started at 9:30, I looked up on Google Maps how long it took to walk over here. It was 20 minutes, so I decided, okay, I’d leave my house at nine, which is what I did. Simple intelligence, but we use that kind of stuff all the time. It’s what we think of as going on in our heads.
And I think that’s in short supply for robots. Most robots are pretty dumb. As a result, it takes a lot of skilled people to program them to do everything they do, and it takes a long time. If robots are going to satisfy our dreams, they need to be smarter. So the AI Institute is designed to combine that physicality of the athletic side with the cognitive side.
For instance, we’re trying to make robots that can watch a human do a task, understand what it’s seeing, and then do the task itself. OJT, on-the-job training for robots as a paradigm. Now, that’s pretty hard, and it’s sort of science fiction, but our idea is to work on a longer timeframe and work on solving those kinds of problems. I have a whole list of things that are in that vein.
Lex Fridman
Maybe we can just take many of the things you mentioned, just take it as a tangent. First of all, athletic intelligence is a super cool term. And that really is intelligence. We humans take it for granted that we’re so good at walking and moving about the world.
Maybe we can just take many of the things you mentioned, just take it as a tangent. First of all, athletic intelligence is a super cool term. And that really is intelligence. We humans take it for granted that we’re so good at walking and moving about the world.
Marc Raibert
And using our hands.
And using our hands.
Lex Fridman
Using your hands.
Using your hands.
Marc Raibert
The mechanics of interacting with all these [inaudible 00:54:15] these two things.
The mechanics of interacting with all these [inaudible 00:54:15] these two things.
Lex Fridman
And you’ve never touched those things before.
And you’ve never touched those things before.
Marc Raibert
Never touched… Well, I’ve touched ones like this.
Never touched… Well, I’ve touched ones like this.
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 00:54:20].
[inaudible 00:54:20].
Marc Raibert
Look at all the things I can do, right? I can juggle them, I’m rotating it this way, I can rotate it without looking. I could fetch these things out my pocket and figure out which one was which and all that kind of stuff. And I don’t think we have much of a clue how all that works yet.
Look at all the things I can do, right? I can juggle them, I’m rotating it this way, I can rotate it without looking. I could fetch these things out my pocket and figure out which one was which and all that kind of stuff. And I don’t think we have much of a clue how all that works yet.
Athletic intelligence
Lex Fridman
I really like putting that under the banner of athletic intelligence. What are the big open problems in athletic intelligence? Boston Dynamics, with Spot, with Atlas, just have shown time and time again, pushed the limits of what we think is possible with robots. But where do we stand actually, if we zoom out. What are the big open problems on the athletic intelligence side?
I really like putting that under the banner of athletic intelligence. What are the big open problems in athletic intelligence? Boston Dynamics, with Spot, with Atlas, just have shown time and time again, pushed the limits of what we think is possible with robots. But where do we stand actually, if we zoom out. What are the big open problems on the athletic intelligence side?
Marc Raibert
I mean, one question you could ask, that isn’t my question, but are they commercially viable? Will they increase productivity? And I think we’re getting very close to that. I don’t think we’re quite there still. Most of the robotics companies, it’s a struggle. It’s really the lack of the cognitive side that probably is the biggest barrier at the moment, even for the physically successful robots.
I mean, one question you could ask, that isn’t my question, but are they commercially viable? Will they increase productivity? And I think we’re getting very close to that. I don’t think we’re quite there still. Most of the robotics companies, it’s a struggle. It’s really the lack of the cognitive side that probably is the biggest barrier at the moment, even for the physically successful robots.
Lex Fridman
Interesting.
Interesting.
Marc Raibert
But your question’s a good one. You can always do a thing that’s more efficient, lighter, more reliable. I’d say reliability. I know that Spot, they’ve been working very hard on getting the tail of the reliability curve up and they’ve made huge progress. There’s 1500 of them out there now, many of them being used in practical applications, day in and day out, where they have to work reliably. And it’s very exciting that they’ve done that. But it takes a huge effort to get that reliability in the robot.
But your question’s a good one. You can always do a thing that’s more efficient, lighter, more reliable. I’d say reliability. I know that Spot, they’ve been working very hard on getting the tail of the reliability curve up and they’ve made huge progress. There’s 1500 of them out there now, many of them being used in practical applications, day in and day out, where they have to work reliably. And it’s very exciting that they’ve done that. But it takes a huge effort to get that reliability in the robot.
There’s cost too, you’d like to get the cost down. Spots are still pretty expensive, and I don’t think that they have to be, but it takes a different kind of activity to do that. I think that Boston Dynamics is owned primarily by Hyundai now, and I think that the skills of Hyundai in making cars can be brought to bear in making robots that are less expensive and more reliable and those kinds of things.
Lex Fridman
On the cognitive side for the AI Institute, what’s the trade-off between moonshot projects for you and maybe incremental progress?
On the cognitive side for the AI Institute, what’s the trade-off between moonshot projects for you and maybe incremental progress?
Marc Raibert
That’s a good question. I think we’re using the paradigm called stepping stones to moonshots. I don’t believe… That was in my original proposal for the institute, stepping stones to moonshots. I think if you go more than a year without seeing a tangible status report of where you are, which is the stepping stone, and it could be a simplification, you don’t necessarily have to solve all the problems of your target goal, even though your target goal is going to take several years, those stepping stone results give you feedback, give motivation, because usually there’s some success in there. So that’s the mantra we’ve been working on, and that’s pretty much how I’d say Boston Dynamics has worked, where you make progress and show it as you go. Show it to yourself, if not to the world.
That’s a good question. I think we’re using the paradigm called stepping stones to moonshots. I don’t believe… That was in my original proposal for the institute, stepping stones to moonshots. I think if you go more than a year without seeing a tangible status report of where you are, which is the stepping stone, and it could be a simplification, you don’t necessarily have to solve all the problems of your target goal, even though your target goal is going to take several years, those stepping stone results give you feedback, give motivation, because usually there’s some success in there. So that’s the mantra we’ve been working on, and that’s pretty much how I’d say Boston Dynamics has worked, where you make progress and show it as you go. Show it to yourself, if not to the world.
Lex Fridman
What does success look like? What are some of the milestones you’re chasing?
What does success look like? What are some of the milestones you’re chasing?
Marc Raibert
Well, with Watch Understand Do, the project I mentioned before, we’ve broken that down into getting some progress with, what does meaningfully watching something mean? Breaking down an observation of a person doing something into the components, segmenting. You watch me do something, I’m going to pick up this thing and put it down here and stack this on it. Well, it’s not obvious if you just look at the raw data, what the sequence of acts are. It’s really a creative intelligent act for you to break that down into the pieces and understand them in a way, so you could say, “Okay, what skill do I need to accomplish each of those things?” So we’re working on the front end of that kind of a problem, where we observe and translate the, it may be video, it may be live, into a description of what we think is going on and then try and map that into skills to accomplish that. And we’ve been developing skills as well. So we have multiple stabs at the pieces of doing that.
Well, with Watch Understand Do, the project I mentioned before, we’ve broken that down into getting some progress with, what does meaningfully watching something mean? Breaking down an observation of a person doing something into the components, segmenting. You watch me do something, I’m going to pick up this thing and put it down here and stack this on it. Well, it’s not obvious if you just look at the raw data, what the sequence of acts are. It’s really a creative intelligent act for you to break that down into the pieces and understand them in a way, so you could say, “Okay, what skill do I need to accomplish each of those things?” So we’re working on the front end of that kind of a problem, where we observe and translate the, it may be video, it may be live, into a description of what we think is going on and then try and map that into skills to accomplish that. And we’ve been developing skills as well. So we have multiple stabs at the pieces of doing that.
Lex Fridman
That. And this is usually video of humans manipulating objects with their hands, kind of thing.
That. And this is usually video of humans manipulating objects with their hands, kind of thing.
Marc Raibert
Mm-hmm. We’re starting out with bicycle repair, some simple bicycle repair tasks.
Mm-hmm. We’re starting out with bicycle repair, some simple bicycle repair tasks.
Lex Fridman
Oh no. That seems complicated, that seems really complicated.
Oh no. That seems complicated, that seems really complicated.
Marc Raibert
Well, it is, but there’s some parts of it that aren’t, like putting the seat into the… You have a tube that goes inside of another tube and there’s a latch. That should be within range.
Well, it is, but there’s some parts of it that aren’t, like putting the seat into the… You have a tube that goes inside of another tube and there’s a latch. That should be within range.
Lex Fridman
Is it possible to observe, to watch a video like this without having an explicit model of what a bicycle looks like?
Is it possible to observe, to watch a video like this without having an explicit model of what a bicycle looks like?
Marc Raibert
I think it is, and I think that’s the kind of thing that people don’t recognize. Let me translate it to navigation. I think the basic paradigm for navigating a space is to get some kind of sensor that tells you where an obstacle is and what’s open, build a map and then go through the space. But if we were doing on the job training where I was giving you a task, I wouldn’t have to say anything about the room. We came in here, all we did is adjust the chair, but we didn’t say anything about the room and we could navigate it. So I think there’s opportunities to build that kind of navigation skill into robots and we’re hoping to be able to do that.
I think it is, and I think that’s the kind of thing that people don’t recognize. Let me translate it to navigation. I think the basic paradigm for navigating a space is to get some kind of sensor that tells you where an obstacle is and what’s open, build a map and then go through the space. But if we were doing on the job training where I was giving you a task, I wouldn’t have to say anything about the room. We came in here, all we did is adjust the chair, but we didn’t say anything about the room and we could navigate it. So I think there’s opportunities to build that kind of navigation skill into robots and we’re hoping to be able to do that.
Lex Fridman
So operate successfully under a lot of uncertainty.
So operate successfully under a lot of uncertainty.
Marc Raibert
Yeah. And lack of specification.
Yeah. And lack of specification.
Lex Fridman
Lack of specification.
Lack of specification.
Marc Raibert
I mean that’s what intelligence is, right? Dealing with… Understanding a situation even though it wasn’t explained.
I mean that’s what intelligence is, right? Dealing with… Understanding a situation even though it wasn’t explained.
Lex Fridman
So how big of a role does machine learning play in all of this? Is this more and more learning based?
So how big of a role does machine learning play in all of this? Is this more and more learning based?
Marc Raibert
Since Chat GPT, which is a year ago, basically, there’s a huge interest in that and a huge optimism about it. I think that there’s a lot of things that that kind of machine learning, now of course there’s lots of different kinds of machine learning, I think there’s a lot of interest and optimism about it. The facts on the ground are that doing physical things with physical robots is a little bit different than language, and the tokens don’t exist. Pixel values aren’t like words. But I think that there’s a lot that can be done there.
Since Chat GPT, which is a year ago, basically, there’s a huge interest in that and a huge optimism about it. I think that there’s a lot of things that that kind of machine learning, now of course there’s lots of different kinds of machine learning, I think there’s a lot of interest and optimism about it. The facts on the ground are that doing physical things with physical robots is a little bit different than language, and the tokens don’t exist. Pixel values aren’t like words. But I think that there’s a lot that can be done there.
We have several people working on machine learning approaches. I don’t know if you know, but we opened an office in Zurich recently, and Marco Hutter, who’s one of the real leaders in reinforcement learning for robots, is the director of that office. He’s still half-time at ETH, the university there, where he has an unbelievably fantastic lab, and then he’s half-time leading, will be leading efforts in the Zurich office. So we have a healthy learning component.
But there’s part of me that still says, if you look out in the world at what the most impressive performances are, they’re still pretty much, I hate to use the word traditional, but that’s what everybody’s calling it, traditional controls, like model predictive control. The Atlas performances that you’ve seen are mostly model predictive control. They’ve started to do some learning stuff that’s really incredible. I don’t know if it’s all been shown yet, but you’ll see it over time. And then Marco has done some great stuff and others.
Lex Fridman
So especially for the athletic intelligence piece, the traditional approach seems to be the one that still performs the best.
So especially for the athletic intelligence piece, the traditional approach seems to be the one that still performs the best.
Marc Raibert
I think we’re going to find a mating of the two and we’ll have the best of both worlds. And we’re working on that at the institute too.
I think we’re going to find a mating of the two and we’ll have the best of both worlds. And we’re working on that at the institute too.
Building a team
Lex Fridman
If I can talk to you about teams, you’ve built an incredible team of Boston Dynamics, before at MIT and CMU, at Boston Dynamics, and now at the AI Institute. And you said that there’s four components to a great team, technical fearlessness, diligence, intrepidness, and fun, technical fun. Can you explain each? Technical fearlessness, what do you mean by that?
If I can talk to you about teams, you’ve built an incredible team of Boston Dynamics, before at MIT and CMU, at Boston Dynamics, and now at the AI Institute. And you said that there’s four components to a great team, technical fearlessness, diligence, intrepidness, and fun, technical fun. Can you explain each? Technical fearlessness, what do you mean by that?
Marc Raibert
Sure. Technical fearlessness means being willing to take on a problem that you don’t know how to solve, and study it, figure out an entry point, maybe a simplified version, or a simplified solution or something, learn from the stepping stone, and go back and eventually make a solution that meets your goals. I think that’s really important.
Sure. Technical fearlessness means being willing to take on a problem that you don’t know how to solve, and study it, figure out an entry point, maybe a simplified version, or a simplified solution or something, learn from the stepping stone, and go back and eventually make a solution that meets your goals. I think that’s really important.
Lex Fridman
The fearlessness comes into play because some of it has never been done before?
The fearlessness comes into play because some of it has never been done before?
Marc Raibert
Yeah, and you don’t know how to do it. There’s easier stuff to do in life. I mean, I don’t know, Watch Understand Do, it’s a mountain of a challenge.
Yeah, and you don’t know how to do it. There’s easier stuff to do in life. I mean, I don’t know, Watch Understand Do, it’s a mountain of a challenge.
Lex Fridman
So that’s the really big challenge you’re tackling now, can we watch humans at scale and have robots, by watching humans, become effective actors in the world?
So that’s the really big challenge you’re tackling now, can we watch humans at scale and have robots, by watching humans, become effective actors in the world?
Marc Raibert
Yeah. I mean we have others like that. We have one called Inspect Diagnose Fix. You call up the Maytag repairman… Okay, he’s the one who you don’t have to call. But you call up the dishwasher repair person, and they come to your house and they look at your machine. It’s already been actually figured out that something doesn’t work, but they have to examine it and figure out what’s wrong and then fix it. I think robots should be able to do that. Boston Dynamics already has Spot robots collecting data on machines, things like thermal data, reading the gauges, listening to them, getting sounds, and that data are used to determine whether they’re healthy or not. But the interpretation isn’t done by the robots yet, and certainly the fixing, the diagnosing and the fixing isn’t done yet, but I think it could be. That’s bringing the AI and combining it with the physical skills to do it.
Yeah. I mean we have others like that. We have one called Inspect Diagnose Fix. You call up the Maytag repairman… Okay, he’s the one who you don’t have to call. But you call up the dishwasher repair person, and they come to your house and they look at your machine. It’s already been actually figured out that something doesn’t work, but they have to examine it and figure out what’s wrong and then fix it. I think robots should be able to do that. Boston Dynamics already has Spot robots collecting data on machines, things like thermal data, reading the gauges, listening to them, getting sounds, and that data are used to determine whether they’re healthy or not. But the interpretation isn’t done by the robots yet, and certainly the fixing, the diagnosing and the fixing isn’t done yet, but I think it could be. That’s bringing the AI and combining it with the physical skills to do it.
Lex Fridman
And you’re referring to the fixing in the physical world. I can’t wait until they can fix the psychological problems of humans, and show up and talk, do therapy.
And you’re referring to the fixing in the physical world. I can’t wait until they can fix the psychological problems of humans, and show up and talk, do therapy.
Marc Raibert
Yeah, that’s a different thing.
Yeah, that’s a different thing.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s a different. Well, it’s all part of the same thing. Again, humanity. Maybe, maybe.
Yeah, it’s a different. Well, it’s all part of the same thing. Again, humanity. Maybe, maybe.
Marc Raibert
You mean convincing you it’s okay that the dishwasher’s broken, just do the [inaudible 01:05:21]. The marketing approach.
You mean convincing you it’s okay that the dishwasher’s broken, just do the [inaudible 01:05:21]. The marketing approach.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, exactly. Don’t sweat the small stuff. As opposed to fixing the dishwasher, it’ll convince you that it’s okay that the dishwasher’s broken. It’s a different approach. Diligence. Why is diligence important?
Yeah, exactly. Don’t sweat the small stuff. As opposed to fixing the dishwasher, it’ll convince you that it’s okay that the dishwasher’s broken. It’s a different approach. Diligence. Why is diligence important?
Videos
Marc Raibert
Well, if you want a real robot solution, it can’t be a very narrow solution that’s going to break at the first variation in what the robot does, or the environment if it wasn’t exactly as you expected it. So how do you get there? I think having an approach that leaves you unsatisfied until you’ve embraced the bigger problem is the diligence I’m talking about.
Well, if you want a real robot solution, it can’t be a very narrow solution that’s going to break at the first variation in what the robot does, or the environment if it wasn’t exactly as you expected it. So how do you get there? I think having an approach that leaves you unsatisfied until you’ve embraced the bigger problem is the diligence I’m talking about.
Again, I’ll point at Boston Dynamics, some of the videos that we had showing the engineer making it hard for the robot to do its task. Spot opening a door and then the guy gets there and pushes on the door so it doesn’t open the way it’s supposed to. Pulling on the rope that’s attached to the robot, so its navigation has been screwed up. We have one where the robot’s climbing stairs and an engineer is tugging on a rope that’s pulling it back down the stairs. That’s totally different than just the robot seeing the stairs, making a model, putting its feet carefully on each step. But that’s what probably robotics needs to succeed, and having that broader idea that you want to come with a robust solution is what I meant by diligence.
Lex Fridman
So really testing it in all conditions, perturbing the system in all kinds of ways, and as a result, creating some epic videos. The legendary-
So really testing it in all conditions, perturbing the system in all kinds of ways, and as a result, creating some epic videos. The legendary-
Marc Raibert
The fun part, the hockey stick.
The fun part, the hockey stick.
Lex Fridman
And then yes, tugging on Spot as it’s trying to open the door. I mean, it’s great testing, but it’s also, I don’t know, it’s just somehow extremely compelling demonstration of robotics in video form.
And then yes, tugging on Spot as it’s trying to open the door. I mean, it’s great testing, but it’s also, I don’t know, it’s just somehow extremely compelling demonstration of robotics in video form.
Marc Raibert
I learned something very early on with the first three-dimensional hopping machine. If you just show a video of it hopping, it’s a so what. If you show it falling over a couple of times, and you can see how easily and fast it falls over, then you appreciate what the robot’s doing when it’s doing its thing. So I think the reaction you just gave to the robot getting interfered with or tested while it’s going through the door, it’s showing you the scope of the solution.
I learned something very early on with the first three-dimensional hopping machine. If you just show a video of it hopping, it’s a so what. If you show it falling over a couple of times, and you can see how easily and fast it falls over, then you appreciate what the robot’s doing when it’s doing its thing. So I think the reaction you just gave to the robot getting interfered with or tested while it’s going through the door, it’s showing you the scope of the solution.
Lex Fridman
The limits of the system, the challenges involved in failure. Showing both failure and success makes you appreciate the success, yeah. And then just the way the videos are done in Boston Dynamics are incredible. Because there’s no flash, there’s no extra production, it’s just raw testing of the robot.
The limits of the system, the challenges involved in failure. Showing both failure and success makes you appreciate the success, yeah. And then just the way the videos are done in Boston Dynamics are incredible. Because there’s no flash, there’s no extra production, it’s just raw testing of the robot.
Marc Raibert
Well, I was the final edit for most of the videos up until about three years ago, or four years ago. My theory of the video is no explanation. If they can’t see it, then it’s not the right thing. And if you do something worth showing, then let them see it. Don’t interfere with a bunch of titles that slow you down, or a bunch of distraction, just do something worth showing and then show it.
Well, I was the final edit for most of the videos up until about three years ago, or four years ago. My theory of the video is no explanation. If they can’t see it, then it’s not the right thing. And if you do something worth showing, then let them see it. Don’t interfere with a bunch of titles that slow you down, or a bunch of distraction, just do something worth showing and then show it.
Lex Fridman
That’s brilliant.
That’s brilliant.
Marc Raibert
It’s hard though for people to buy into that.
It’s hard though for people to buy into that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean people always want to add more stuff, but the simplicity of just, “Do something worth showing and show it”, that’s brilliant. And don’t add extra stuff.
Yeah, I mean people always want to add more stuff, but the simplicity of just, “Do something worth showing and show it”, that’s brilliant. And don’t add extra stuff.
Marc Raibert
People have criticized, especially the Big Dog videos, where there’s a human driving the robot. And I understand the criticism now. At the time we wanted to just show, “Look, this thing’s using its legs to get up the hill.” So we focused on showing that, which was, we thought, the story. The fact that there was a human… So they were thinking about autonomy, whereas we were thinking about the mobility. So we’ve adjusted to a lot of things that we see that people care about, trying to be honest. We’ve always tried to be honest.
People have criticized, especially the Big Dog videos, where there’s a human driving the robot. And I understand the criticism now. At the time we wanted to just show, “Look, this thing’s using its legs to get up the hill.” So we focused on showing that, which was, we thought, the story. The fact that there was a human… So they were thinking about autonomy, whereas we were thinking about the mobility. So we’ve adjusted to a lot of things that we see that people care about, trying to be honest. We’ve always tried to be honest.
Lex Fridman
But also just show cool stuff in its raw form, the limits of the system. Let’s see the system be perturbed and be robust and resilient and all that kind of stuff. And dancing with some music. Intrepidness and fun. So, intrepid?
But also just show cool stuff in its raw form, the limits of the system. Let’s see the system be perturbed and be robust and resilient and all that kind of stuff. And dancing with some music. Intrepidness and fun. So, intrepid?
Marc Raibert
I mean, it might be the most important ingredient.
I mean, it might be the most important ingredient.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Marc Raibert
And that is, robotics is hard, it’s not going to work right right away, so don’t be discouraged, is all it really means. Usually, when I talk about these things, I show videos, and I show a long string of outtakes. You have to have courage to be intrepid, when you work so hard to build your machine, and then you’re trying it, and it just doesn’t do what you thought it would do, what you want it to do, and you have to stick to it and keep trying.
And that is, robotics is hard, it’s not going to work right right away, so don’t be discouraged, is all it really means. Usually, when I talk about these things, I show videos, and I show a long string of outtakes. You have to have courage to be intrepid, when you work so hard to build your machine, and then you’re trying it, and it just doesn’t do what you thought it would do, what you want it to do, and you have to stick to it and keep trying.
Lex Fridman
I mean, we don’t often see that, the story behind Spot and Atlas. How many failures were there along the way to get a working Atlas, a working Spot, in the early days, even a working Big Dog?
I mean, we don’t often see that, the story behind Spot and Atlas. How many failures were there along the way to get a working Atlas, a working Spot, in the early days, even a working Big Dog?
Marc Raibert
There’s a video of Atlas climbing three big steps, and it’s very dynamic and it’s really exciting, real accomplishment. It took 109 tries and we have video of every one of them, we shoot everything. Again, we, this is at Boston Dynamics. So it took 109 tries, but once it did it had a high percentage of success. So it’s not like we’re cheating by just showing the best one, but we do show the evolved performance, not everything along the way. But everything along the way is informative. And it shows there’s stupid things that go wrong, like the robot, just when you say go and it collapses right there on the start, that doesn’t have to do with the steps. Or the perception didn’t work right, so you miss the target when you jump, or something breaks and there’s oil flying everywhere. But that’s fun.
There’s a video of Atlas climbing three big steps, and it’s very dynamic and it’s really exciting, real accomplishment. It took 109 tries and we have video of every one of them, we shoot everything. Again, we, this is at Boston Dynamics. So it took 109 tries, but once it did it had a high percentage of success. So it’s not like we’re cheating by just showing the best one, but we do show the evolved performance, not everything along the way. But everything along the way is informative. And it shows there’s stupid things that go wrong, like the robot, just when you say go and it collapses right there on the start, that doesn’t have to do with the steps. Or the perception didn’t work right, so you miss the target when you jump, or something breaks and there’s oil flying everywhere. But that’s fun.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. So the hardware failures and maybe some software-
Yeah. So the hardware failures and maybe some software-
Marc Raibert
Lots of control of evolution during that time. I think it took six weeks to get those 109 trials, because there was programming going on. It was actually robot learning, but there were human in the loop helping with the learning. So all data-driven.
Lots of control of evolution during that time. I think it took six weeks to get those 109 trials, because there was programming going on. It was actually robot learning, but there were human in the loop helping with the learning. So all data-driven.
Lex Fridman
Okay, and you always are learning from that failure.
Okay, and you always are learning from that failure.
Marc Raibert
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
How do you protect Atlas from not getting damaged from 109 attempts?
How do you protect Atlas from not getting damaged from 109 attempts?
Marc Raibert
It’s remarkable. One of the accomplishments of Atlas is that the engineers have made a machine that’s robust enough that it can take that kind of testing, where it’s falling and stuff, and it doesn’t break every time. It still breaks, and part of the paradigm is to have people to repair stuff. You got to figure that in if you’re going to do this kind of work. I sometimes criticize the people who have their gold-plated thing and they keep it on the shelf and they’re afraid to use it. I don’t think you can make progress if you’re working that way. You need to be ready to have it break and go in there and fix it. It’s part of the thing. Plan your budget so you have spare parts and a crew and all that stuff.
It’s remarkable. One of the accomplishments of Atlas is that the engineers have made a machine that’s robust enough that it can take that kind of testing, where it’s falling and stuff, and it doesn’t break every time. It still breaks, and part of the paradigm is to have people to repair stuff. You got to figure that in if you’re going to do this kind of work. I sometimes criticize the people who have their gold-plated thing and they keep it on the shelf and they’re afraid to use it. I don’t think you can make progress if you’re working that way. You need to be ready to have it break and go in there and fix it. It’s part of the thing. Plan your budget so you have spare parts and a crew and all that stuff.
Lex Fridman
If it falls 109 times, it’s okay. Wow. So, intrepid, truly. And that applies to Spot, that applies to all the other robot stuff.
If it falls 109 times, it’s okay. Wow. So, intrepid, truly. And that applies to Spot, that applies to all the other robot stuff.
Marc Raibert
Applies to everything. I think it applies to everything anybody tries to do that’s worth doing.
Applies to everything. I think it applies to everything anybody tries to do that’s worth doing.
Lex Fridman
And especially with systems in the real world, right?
And especially with systems in the real world, right?
Engineering
Marc Raibert
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So, fun.
So, fun.
Marc Raibert
Fun. Technical fun, I usually say.
Fun. Technical fun, I usually say.
Lex Fridman
Technical fun.
Technical fun.
Marc Raibert
Have technical fun. I think that life as an engineer is really satisfying. To some degree it can be like crafts work, where you get to do things with your own hands, or your own design, or whatever your media is, and it’s very satisfying to be able to just do the work. Unlike a lot of people who have to do something that they don’t like doing, I think engineers typically get to do something that they like and there’s a lot of satisfaction from that. Then there’s, in many cases, you can have impact on the world somehow, because you’ve done something that other people admire, which is different from just the craft fun of building a thing. So that’s the second way that being an engineer is good.
Have technical fun. I think that life as an engineer is really satisfying. To some degree it can be like crafts work, where you get to do things with your own hands, or your own design, or whatever your media is, and it’s very satisfying to be able to just do the work. Unlike a lot of people who have to do something that they don’t like doing, I think engineers typically get to do something that they like and there’s a lot of satisfaction from that. Then there’s, in many cases, you can have impact on the world somehow, because you’ve done something that other people admire, which is different from just the craft fun of building a thing. So that’s the second way that being an engineer is good.
I think the third thing is that if you’re lucky to be working in a team where you’re getting the benefit of other people’s skills that are helping you do your thing. None of us has all the skills needed to do most of these projects, and if you have a team where you’re working well with the others, that can be very satisfying.
Then if you’re an engineer, you also usually get paid. So you kind of get paid four times in my view of the world. So what could be better than that?
Lex Fridman
Get paid to have fun. What do you love about engineering? When you say engineering, what does that mean to you exactly? What is this big thing that we call engineering?
Get paid to have fun. What do you love about engineering? When you say engineering, what does that mean to you exactly? What is this big thing that we call engineering?
Marc Raibert
I think it’s both being a scientist, or getting to use science, at the same time as being an artist or a creator. Scientists only get to study what’s out there, and engineers get to make stuff that didn’t exist before. So it’s really, I think, a higher calling, even though I think most the public out there thinks science is top and engineering is somehow secondary, but I think it’s the other way around.
I think it’s both being a scientist, or getting to use science, at the same time as being an artist or a creator. Scientists only get to study what’s out there, and engineers get to make stuff that didn’t exist before. So it’s really, I think, a higher calling, even though I think most the public out there thinks science is top and engineering is somehow secondary, but I think it’s the other way around.
Lex Fridman
And at the cutting edge, I think, when you talk about robotics, there is a possibility to do art in that you do the first of its kind thing. Then there’s the production at scale, which is its own beautiful thing. But when you do the first new robot or the first new thing, that’s a possibility to create something totally new, that is art.
And at the cutting edge, I think, when you talk about robotics, there is a possibility to do art in that you do the first of its kind thing. Then there’s the production at scale, which is its own beautiful thing. But when you do the first new robot or the first new thing, that’s a possibility to create something totally new, that is art.
Marc Raibert
Bringing metal to life, or a machine to life, is fun. It was fun doing the dancing videos, where got a huge public response, and we’re going to do more. We’re doing some at the institute doing some at the institute and we’ll do more.
Bringing metal to life, or a machine to life, is fun. It was fun doing the dancing videos, where got a huge public response, and we’re going to do more. We’re doing some at the institute doing some at the institute and we’ll do more.
Lex Fridman
Well, that metal to life moment. I mean, to me that’s still magical. When inanimate objects comes to life, to me-
Well, that metal to life moment. I mean, to me that’s still magical. When inanimate objects comes to life, to me-
Marc Raibert
It’s cool.
It’s cool.
Lex Fridman
… to this day, is still an incredible moment. That human intelligence can create systems that instill life, or whatever that is, into inanimate objects, it’s truly magical. Especially when it’s at the scale that humans can perceive and appreciate directly.
… to this day, is still an incredible moment. That human intelligence can create systems that instill life, or whatever that is, into inanimate objects, it’s truly magical. Especially when it’s at the scale that humans can perceive and appreciate directly.
Marc Raibert
But I think, with going back to the pieces of that, you design a linkage that turns out to be half the weight and just as strong, that’s very satisfying.
But I think, with going back to the pieces of that, you design a linkage that turns out to be half the weight and just as strong, that’s very satisfying.
Lex Fridman
That’s [inaudible 01:16:49], yeah.
That’s [inaudible 01:16:49], yeah.
Marc Raibert
There are people who do that and it’s a creative act.
There are people who do that and it’s a creative act.
Dancing robots
Lex Fridman
What to you is most beautiful about robotics? Sorry for the big romantic question.
What to you is most beautiful about robotics? Sorry for the big romantic question.
Marc Raibert
I think having the robots move in a way that’s evocative of life is pretty exciting.
I think having the robots move in a way that’s evocative of life is pretty exciting.
Lex Fridman
So the elegance of movement.
So the elegance of movement.
Marc Raibert
Yeah. Or if it’s a high performance act where it’s doing it faster, bigger than other robots. Usually we’re not doing it bigger, faster than people, but we’re getting there in a few narrow dimensions.
Yeah. Or if it’s a high performance act where it’s doing it faster, bigger than other robots. Usually we’re not doing it bigger, faster than people, but we’re getting there in a few narrow dimensions.
Lex Fridman
So faster, bigger, smoother, more elegant, more graceful.
So faster, bigger, smoother, more elegant, more graceful.
Marc Raibert
I mean, I’d like to do dancing that starts… We’re nowhere near the dancing capabilities of a human. We’ve been having a ballerina in, who’s kind of a well-known ballerina, and she’s been programming the robot. We’ve been working on the tools that can make it so that she can use her way of talking, way of doing a choreography or something like that, more accessible, to get the robot to do things, and starting to produce some interesting stuff.
I mean, I’d like to do dancing that starts… We’re nowhere near the dancing capabilities of a human. We’ve been having a ballerina in, who’s kind of a well-known ballerina, and she’s been programming the robot. We’ve been working on the tools that can make it so that she can use her way of talking, way of doing a choreography or something like that, more accessible, to get the robot to do things, and starting to produce some interesting stuff.
Lex Fridman
Well, we should mention that there is a choreography tool.
Well, we should mention that there is a choreography tool.
Marc Raibert
There is.
There is.
Lex Fridman
I guess-
I guess-
Lex Fridman
Tool.
Tool.
Marc Raibert
There is.
There is.
Lex Fridman
I mean I guess I saw versions of it, which is pretty cool. You can, at slices of time, control different parts at the high level, the movement of the robot, Spot and other-
I mean I guess I saw versions of it, which is pretty cool. You can, at slices of time, control different parts at the high level, the movement of the robot, Spot and other-
Marc Raibert
We hope to take that forward and make it more tuned to how the dance world wants to talk, wants to communicate and get better performances. I mean, we’ve done a lot, but there’s still a lot possible. And I’d like to have performances where the robots are dancing with people. So right now almost everything that we’ve done on dancing is to a fixed time base. So once you press go, the robot does its thing and plays out its thing. It’s not listening, it’s not watching. But I think it should do those things.
We hope to take that forward and make it more tuned to how the dance world wants to talk, wants to communicate and get better performances. I mean, we’ve done a lot, but there’s still a lot possible. And I’d like to have performances where the robots are dancing with people. So right now almost everything that we’ve done on dancing is to a fixed time base. So once you press go, the robot does its thing and plays out its thing. It’s not listening, it’s not watching. But I think it should do those things.
Lex Fridman
I think I would love to see a professional ballerina, alone in her room with a robot, slowly teaching the robot. Just actually, the process of a clueless robot trying to figure out a small little piece of a dance. Because right now, Atlas and Spot have done perfect dancing to a beat and so on, to a degree, but the learning process of interacting with a human would be incredible to watch.
I think I would love to see a professional ballerina, alone in her room with a robot, slowly teaching the robot. Just actually, the process of a clueless robot trying to figure out a small little piece of a dance. Because right now, Atlas and Spot have done perfect dancing to a beat and so on, to a degree, but the learning process of interacting with a human would be incredible to watch.
Marc Raibert
One of the cool things going on, you know that there’s a class at Brown University called Choreorobotics? Sidney Skybetter is a dancer, choreographer and he teamed up with Stefanie Tellex, who’s a computer science professor, and they taught this class and I think they have some graduate students helping teach it, where they have two spots and people come in. I think it’s 50/50 of computer science people and dance people, and they program performances that are very interesting. I show some of them sometimes when I give a talk.
One of the cool things going on, you know that there’s a class at Brown University called Choreorobotics? Sidney Skybetter is a dancer, choreographer and he teamed up with Stefanie Tellex, who’s a computer science professor, and they taught this class and I think they have some graduate students helping teach it, where they have two spots and people come in. I think it’s 50/50 of computer science people and dance people, and they program performances that are very interesting. I show some of them sometimes when I give a talk.
Lex Fridman
And making that process of a human teaching the robot more efficient, more intuitive, maybe partial language, part movement. That’d be really fascinating because one of the things I’ve realized is humans communicate with movement a lot. It’s not just language, there’s a lot. There’s body language, there’s so many intricate little things. To watch a human and Spot communicate back and forth with movement, I mean there’s just so many wonderful possibilities there.
And making that process of a human teaching the robot more efficient, more intuitive, maybe partial language, part movement. That’d be really fascinating because one of the things I’ve realized is humans communicate with movement a lot. It’s not just language, there’s a lot. There’s body language, there’s so many intricate little things. To watch a human and Spot communicate back and forth with movement, I mean there’s just so many wonderful possibilities there.
Marc Raibert
But it’s also a challenge. We get asked to have our robots perform with famous dancers and they have 200 degrees of freedom or something, every little ripple and thing, and they have all this head and neck and shoulders and stuff, and the robots mostly don’t have all that stuff and it’s a daunting challenge to not look physically stupid next to them. So we’ve pretty much avoided that performance, but we’ll get to it.
But it’s also a challenge. We get asked to have our robots perform with famous dancers and they have 200 degrees of freedom or something, every little ripple and thing, and they have all this head and neck and shoulders and stuff, and the robots mostly don’t have all that stuff and it’s a daunting challenge to not look physically stupid next to them. So we’ve pretty much avoided that performance, but we’ll get to it.
Lex Fridman
I think even with the limited degrees of freedom, we could still have some sass and flavor and so on. You can figure out your own thing even if you can’t-
I think even with the limited degrees of freedom, we could still have some sass and flavor and so on. You can figure out your own thing even if you can’t-
Marc Raibert
And we can reverse things. If you watch a human do a robot animation, which is a dance style where you jerk around and you pop and lock and all that stuff, I think the robots could show up the humans by doing unstable oscillations and things that are faster than a person could. So that’s on my plan, but I haven’t quite gotten there yet.
And we can reverse things. If you watch a human do a robot animation, which is a dance style where you jerk around and you pop and lock and all that stuff, I think the robots could show up the humans by doing unstable oscillations and things that are faster than a person could. So that’s on my plan, but I haven’t quite gotten there yet.
Hiring
Lex Fridman
You mentioned about building teams and robotics teams and so on. How do you find great engineers? How do you hire great engineers?
You mentioned about building teams and robotics teams and so on. How do you find great engineers? How do you hire great engineers?
Marc Raibert
Well, it’s a chicken and egg. If you have an environment where interesting engineering is going on, then engineers want to work there. And I think it took a long time to develop that at Boston Dynamics. In fact, when we started, although I had the experience of building things in the leg lab, both at CMU and at MIT, we weren’t that sophisticated an engineering thing compared to what Boston Dynamics is now, but it was our ambition to do that. And Sarcos was another robot company, so I always thought of us as being this much on the computing side, and this much on the hardware side, and they were this. And then over the years, I think we achieved the same or better levels of engineering.
Well, it’s a chicken and egg. If you have an environment where interesting engineering is going on, then engineers want to work there. And I think it took a long time to develop that at Boston Dynamics. In fact, when we started, although I had the experience of building things in the leg lab, both at CMU and at MIT, we weren’t that sophisticated an engineering thing compared to what Boston Dynamics is now, but it was our ambition to do that. And Sarcos was another robot company, so I always thought of us as being this much on the computing side, and this much on the hardware side, and they were this. And then over the years, I think we achieved the same or better levels of engineering.
Meanwhile, Sarcos got acquired and then they went through all changes and I don’t know exactly what their current status is. So it took many years, is part of the answer. I think you got to find people who love it. In the early days, we paid a little less so we only got people who were doing it because they really loved it. We also hired people who might not have professional degrees, people who were building bicycles and building kayaks. We have some people who come from the maker world, and that’s really important for the work we do, to have that be part of the mix.
Lex Fridman
Whatever that is. Whatever the magic ingredient that makes a great builder, maker. That’s the big part of it.
Whatever that is. Whatever the magic ingredient that makes a great builder, maker. That’s the big part of it.
Marc Raibert
People who repaired their cars or motorcycles or whatever in their garages when they were kids.
People who repaired their cars or motorcycles or whatever in their garages when they were kids.
Lex Fridman
The robotics students, grad students, and just roboticists that I know and I hang out with, there’s a endless energy and they’re just happy. Say, I compare another group of people that are alike that are people that skydive professionally. There’s just excitement and general energy that I think probably has to do with the fact that they’re just constantly, first of all, fail a lot. And then the joy of building a thing that you eventually works.
The robotics students, grad students, and just roboticists that I know and I hang out with, there’s a endless energy and they’re just happy. Say, I compare another group of people that are alike that are people that skydive professionally. There’s just excitement and general energy that I think probably has to do with the fact that they’re just constantly, first of all, fail a lot. And then the joy of building a thing that you eventually works.
Marc Raibert
Talking about being happy, there used to be a time when I was doing the machine shop work myself back in those JPL and Caltech days, when, if I came home smelling like the machine shop because it’s an oily place, my wife would say, “You had a good day today.” Because she could tell that that’s where I’d been.
Talking about being happy, there used to be a time when I was doing the machine shop work myself back in those JPL and Caltech days, when, if I came home smelling like the machine shop because it’s an oily place, my wife would say, “You had a good day today.” Because she could tell that that’s where I’d been.
Lex Fridman
You’ve actually built something. You’ve done something in the physical world. And probably the videos help show off what robotics is.
You’ve actually built something. You’ve done something in the physical world. And probably the videos help show off what robotics is.
Marc Raibert
At Boston Dynamics, it put us on the map. I remember interviewing some sales guy and he was from a company and he said, “Well, no one’s ever heard of my company but we have really good products. You guys, everybody knows who you are but you don’t have any products at all.” Which was true, and we thank YouTube for that. YouTube came, we caught the YouTube wave and it had a huge impact on our company.
At Boston Dynamics, it put us on the map. I remember interviewing some sales guy and he was from a company and he said, “Well, no one’s ever heard of my company but we have really good products. You guys, everybody knows who you are but you don’t have any products at all.” Which was true, and we thank YouTube for that. YouTube came, we caught the YouTube wave and it had a huge impact on our company.
Lex Fridman
I mean, it’s a big impact not just on your company, but on robotics in general and helping people understand and inspire what is possible with robots, and inspire imagination, fear and everything. The full spectrum of human emotion was aroused, which is great for the entirety of humanity, and also, it’s probably inspiring for young people that want to get into AI and robotics. Let me ask you about some competitors. You’ve been a complimentary of Elon and Tesla’s work on Optimus robot with their humanoid robot. What do you think of their efforts there with the humanoid robot?
I mean, it’s a big impact not just on your company, but on robotics in general and helping people understand and inspire what is possible with robots, and inspire imagination, fear and everything. The full spectrum of human emotion was aroused, which is great for the entirety of humanity, and also, it’s probably inspiring for young people that want to get into AI and robotics. Let me ask you about some competitors. You’ve been a complimentary of Elon and Tesla’s work on Optimus robot with their humanoid robot. What do you think of their efforts there with the humanoid robot?
Optimus robot
Marc Raibert
I really admire Elon as a technologist. I think that what he did with Tesla, it was just totally mind-boggling that he could go from this totally niche area that less than 1% of anybody seemed to be interested to making it, so that essentially every car company in the world is trying to do what he’s done. So you got to give it to him. Then look at SpaceX, he’s basically replaced NASA. That might be a little exaggeration, but not by much.
I really admire Elon as a technologist. I think that what he did with Tesla, it was just totally mind-boggling that he could go from this totally niche area that less than 1% of anybody seemed to be interested to making it, so that essentially every car company in the world is trying to do what he’s done. So you got to give it to him. Then look at SpaceX, he’s basically replaced NASA. That might be a little exaggeration, but not by much.
So you got to admire the guy and I wouldn’t count him out for anything. I don’t think Optimus today is where Atlas is, for instance. I don’t know, it’s a little hard to compare them to the other companies. I visited Figure. I think they’re doing well and they have a good team. I’ve visited Apptronik and I think they have a good team and they’re doing well. But Elon has a lot of resources, he has a lot of ambition. I like to take some credit for his ambition. I think if I read between the lines, it’s hard not to think that him seeing what Atlas is doing is a little bit of an inspiration. I hope so.
Lex Fridman
Do you think Atlas and Optimus will hang out at some point?
Do you think Atlas and Optimus will hang out at some point?
Marc Raibert
I would love to host that. Now that I’m not at Boston Dynamics, I’m not officially connected, I’m on the board but I’m not officially connected, I would love to host a-
I would love to host that. Now that I’m not at Boston Dynamics, I’m not officially connected, I’m on the board but I’m not officially connected, I would love to host a-
Lex Fridman
A robot meetups?
A robot meetups?
Marc Raibert
… a wrote up meetup, yeah.
… a wrote up meetup, yeah.
Lex Fridman
Does the AI Institute work with Spots and Atlas? Is it focused on Spots mostly right now as a platform?
Does the AI Institute work with Spots and Atlas? Is it focused on Spots mostly right now as a platform?
Marc Raibert
We have a bunch of different robots. We bought everything we could buy. So we have Spots. I think we have a good size fleet of them. I don’t know how many it is, but a good size fleet. We have a couple of ANYmal robots. ANYmal is a company founded by Marco Hutter, even though he’s not that involved anymore, but we have a couple of those. We have a bunch of arms like Franka’s and USRobotics. Because even though we have ambitions to build stuff and we are starting to build stuff, day one, getting off the ground, we just bought stuff.
We have a bunch of different robots. We bought everything we could buy. So we have Spots. I think we have a good size fleet of them. I don’t know how many it is, but a good size fleet. We have a couple of ANYmal robots. ANYmal is a company founded by Marco Hutter, even though he’s not that involved anymore, but we have a couple of those. We have a bunch of arms like Franka’s and USRobotics. Because even though we have ambitions to build stuff and we are starting to build stuff, day one, getting off the ground, we just bought stuff.
Lex Fridman
I love this robot playground you’ve built.
I love this robot playground you’ve built.
Marc Raibert
You can come over and take a look if you want.
You can come over and take a look if you want.
Lex Fridman
That’s great. So it’s all these kinds of robots, legged, arms.
That’s great. So it’s all these kinds of robots, legged, arms.
Marc Raibert
Well, there’s some areas that feel like a playground, but it’s not like they’re all frolic together.
Well, there’s some areas that feel like a playground, but it’s not like they’re all frolic together.
Lex Fridman
Again, maybe you’ll arrange a robot meetup. But in general, what’s your view on competition in this space for especially humanoid and legged robots? Are you excited by the competition or the friendly competition?
Again, maybe you’ll arrange a robot meetup. But in general, what’s your view on competition in this space for especially humanoid and legged robots? Are you excited by the competition or the friendly competition?
Marc Raibert
I don’t think about competition that much. I’m not a commercial guy. I think for the many years I was at Boston Dynamics, we didn’t think about competition. We were just doing our thing there. It wasn’t like there were products out there that we were competing with. Maybe there was some competition for DARPA funding, which we got a lot of, got very good at getting. But even there, in a couple of cases where we might’ve competed, we ended up just being the robot provider, that is for the LittleDog program, we just made the robots. We didn’t participate as developers except for developing the robot. And in the DARPA robotics challenge, we didn’t compete. We provided the robots.
I don’t think about competition that much. I’m not a commercial guy. I think for the many years I was at Boston Dynamics, we didn’t think about competition. We were just doing our thing there. It wasn’t like there were products out there that we were competing with. Maybe there was some competition for DARPA funding, which we got a lot of, got very good at getting. But even there, in a couple of cases where we might’ve competed, we ended up just being the robot provider, that is for the LittleDog program, we just made the robots. We didn’t participate as developers except for developing the robot. And in the DARPA robotics challenge, we didn’t compete. We provided the robots.
In the AI world now, now that we’re working on cognitive stuff, it feels much more a competition. The entry requirements in terms of computing hardware and the skills of the team and hiring talent, it’s a much tougher place. So I think much more about competition now on the cognitive side. On the physical side, it doesn’t feel it’s that much about competition yet. Obviously, with 10 humanoid companies out there, 10 or 12, I mean there’s probably others that I don’t know about, they’re definitely in competition, will be in competition.
Lex Fridman
How much room is there for a quadruped and especially a humanoid robot to become cheaper? So cutting costs, and how low can you go? And how much of it is just mass production? So questions of how to produce versus engineering innovation, how to simplify it.
How much room is there for a quadruped and especially a humanoid robot to become cheaper? So cutting costs, and how low can you go? And how much of it is just mass production? So questions of how to produce versus engineering innovation, how to simplify it.
Marc Raibert
I think there’s a huge way to go. I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom of it, the bottom in terms of its lower prices. I think you should be totally optimistic that, at asymptote, things don’t have to be anything as expensive as they are now. Back to competition, I wanted to say one thing. I think in the quadruped space, having other people selling quadruped’s is a great thing for Boston Dynamics because I believe the question in the user’s minds is, “Which quadruped do I want?” It’s not, “Do I want a quadruped?” “Can a quadruped do my job?” It’s much more like that, which is a great place for it to be. Then you’re just doing the things you normally do to make your product better and compete, selling and all that stuff. And that’ll be the way it is with humanoids at some point.
I think there’s a huge way to go. I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom of it, the bottom in terms of its lower prices. I think you should be totally optimistic that, at asymptote, things don’t have to be anything as expensive as they are now. Back to competition, I wanted to say one thing. I think in the quadruped space, having other people selling quadruped’s is a great thing for Boston Dynamics because I believe the question in the user’s minds is, “Which quadruped do I want?” It’s not, “Do I want a quadruped?” “Can a quadruped do my job?” It’s much more like that, which is a great place for it to be. Then you’re just doing the things you normally do to make your product better and compete, selling and all that stuff. And that’ll be the way it is with humanoids at some point.
Lex Fridman
Well, there’s a lot of humanoids and you’re just not even… It’s like iPhone versus Android and people are just buying both and it’s just, you’re not really-
Well, there’s a lot of humanoids and you’re just not even… It’s like iPhone versus Android and people are just buying both and it’s just, you’re not really-
Marc Raibert
You’re creating the category or the category is happening. I mean right now, the use cases, that’s the key thing. Having realistic use cases that are moneymaking in robotics is a big challenge. There’s the warehouse use case. That’s probably the only thing that makes anybody any money in robotics at this point.
You’re creating the category or the category is happening. I mean right now, the use cases, that’s the key thing. Having realistic use cases that are moneymaking in robotics is a big challenge. There’s the warehouse use case. That’s probably the only thing that makes anybody any money in robotics at this point.
Lex Fridman
There’s got to be a moment-
There’s got to be a moment-
Marc Raibert
There’s old-fashioned robots. I mean, there’s fixed arms doing manufacturing. I don’t want to say that they’re not making money.
There’s old-fashioned robots. I mean, there’s fixed arms doing manufacturing. I don’t want to say that they’re not making money.
Lex Fridman
… Industrial robotics, yes. But there’s got to be a moment when social robotics starts making real money. Meaning a Spot type robot in the home and there’s tens of millions of them in the home and they’re, I don’t know, how many dogs there are in the United States as pets.
… Industrial robotics, yes. But there’s got to be a moment when social robotics starts making real money. Meaning a Spot type robot in the home and there’s tens of millions of them in the home and they’re, I don’t know, how many dogs there are in the United States as pets.
Marc Raibert
Many.
Many.
Lex Fridman
It feels there’s something we love about having a intelligent companion with us that remembers us, that’s excited to see us. All that stuff.
It feels there’s something we love about having a intelligent companion with us that remembers us, that’s excited to see us. All that stuff.
Marc Raibert
But it’s also true that the companies making those things, there’ve been a lot of failures in recent times. There’s that one year when I think three of them went under. So it’s not that easy to do that. Getting performance, safety and cost all to be where they need to be at the same time, that’s hard.
But it’s also true that the companies making those things, there’ve been a lot of failures in recent times. There’s that one year when I think three of them went under. So it’s not that easy to do that. Getting performance, safety and cost all to be where they need to be at the same time, that’s hard.
Lex Fridman
But also some of it is, like you say, you can have a product but people might not be aware of it. So also part of it is the videos or however you connect with the public, the culture and create the category. Make people realize this is the thing you want. There’s a lot of negative perceptions you can have. Do you really want a system with the camera in your home walking around? If it’s presented correctly and if there’s the right boundaries around it and you understand how it works and so on, a lot of people would want to. And if they don’t, they might be suspicious of it. So that’s an important one. We all use smartphones and that has a camera that’s looking at us.
But also some of it is, like you say, you can have a product but people might not be aware of it. So also part of it is the videos or however you connect with the public, the culture and create the category. Make people realize this is the thing you want. There’s a lot of negative perceptions you can have. Do you really want a system with the camera in your home walking around? If it’s presented correctly and if there’s the right boundaries around it and you understand how it works and so on, a lot of people would want to. And if they don’t, they might be suspicious of it. So that’s an important one. We all use smartphones and that has a camera that’s looking at us.
Marc Raibert
It has two or three or four.
It has two or three or four.
Lex Fridman
And it’s listening. Very few people are suspicious about it. They take it for granted and so on. And I think robots would be the same way.
And it’s listening. Very few people are suspicious about it. They take it for granted and so on. And I think robots would be the same way.
Marc Raibert
I agree.
I agree.
Future of robotics
Lex Fridman
So as you work on the cognitive aspect of these robots, do you think we’ll ever get to human level or superhuman level intelligence? There’s been a lot of conversations about this recently, given the rapid development in large language models.
So as you work on the cognitive aspect of these robots, do you think we’ll ever get to human level or superhuman level intelligence? There’s been a lot of conversations about this recently, given the rapid development in large language models.
Marc Raibert
I think that intelligence is a lot of different things and I think some things, computers are already smarter than people, and some things they’re not even close. And I think you’d need a menu of detailed categories to come up with that. But I also think that the conversation that seems to be happening about AGI’s puzzles me. So I ask you a question, do you think there’s anybody smarter than you in the world?
I think that intelligence is a lot of different things and I think some things, computers are already smarter than people, and some things they’re not even close. And I think you’d need a menu of detailed categories to come up with that. But I also think that the conversation that seems to be happening about AGI’s puzzles me. So I ask you a question, do you think there’s anybody smarter than you in the world?
Lex Fridman
Absolutely, yes.
Absolutely, yes.
Marc Raibert
Do you find that threatening?
Do you find that threatening?
Lex Fridman
No.
No.
Marc Raibert
So I don’t understand, even if computers were smarter than people, why we should assume that that’s a threat, especially since they could easily be smarter but still available to us or under our control, which is basically how computers generally are.
So I don’t understand, even if computers were smarter than people, why we should assume that that’s a threat, especially since they could easily be smarter but still available to us or under our control, which is basically how computers generally are.
Lex Fridman
I think the fear is that they would be 10x or 100x smarter and operating under different morals and ethical codes than humans naturally do, and so almost become misaligned in unintended ways and therefore harm humans in ways we just can’t predict. And even if we program them to do a thing, on the way of doing that thing, they would cause a lot of harm. And when they’re 100 times, 1,000 times, 10,000 times smarter than us, we won’t be able to stop it or we won’t be able to even see the harm as it’s happening until it’s too late. That stuff. So you can construct all possible trajectories of how the world ends because of super intelligent systems.
I think the fear is that they would be 10x or 100x smarter and operating under different morals and ethical codes than humans naturally do, and so almost become misaligned in unintended ways and therefore harm humans in ways we just can’t predict. And even if we program them to do a thing, on the way of doing that thing, they would cause a lot of harm. And when they’re 100 times, 1,000 times, 10,000 times smarter than us, we won’t be able to stop it or we won’t be able to even see the harm as it’s happening until it’s too late. That stuff. So you can construct all possible trajectories of how the world ends because of super intelligent systems.
Marc Raibert
It’s a little bit like that line in the Oppenheimer movie where they contemplate whether the first time they set off a reaction, all matter on earth is going to go up. I don’t remember what the verb they used was for the chain reaction. I guess it’s possible, but I personally don’t think it’s worth worrying about that. I think that it’s balancing opportunities and risk. I think if you take any technology, there’s opportunity and risk. I’ll point at the car. They pollute and about what? 1.25 million people get killed every year around the world because of them. Despite that, I think they’re a boon to humankind, they’re very useful, many of us love them and those technical problems can be solved. I think they’re becoming safer. I think they’re becoming less polluting, at least some of them are. And every technology you can name has a story like that in my opinion.
It’s a little bit like that line in the Oppenheimer movie where they contemplate whether the first time they set off a reaction, all matter on earth is going to go up. I don’t remember what the verb they used was for the chain reaction. I guess it’s possible, but I personally don’t think it’s worth worrying about that. I think that it’s balancing opportunities and risk. I think if you take any technology, there’s opportunity and risk. I’ll point at the car. They pollute and about what? 1.25 million people get killed every year around the world because of them. Despite that, I think they’re a boon to humankind, they’re very useful, many of us love them and those technical problems can be solved. I think they’re becoming safer. I think they’re becoming less polluting, at least some of them are. And every technology you can name has a story like that in my opinion.
Lex Fridman
What’s the story behind the Hawaiian shirt? Is it a fashion statement, a philosophical statement? Is it just a statement of rebellion? Engineering statement?
What’s the story behind the Hawaiian shirt? Is it a fashion statement, a philosophical statement? Is it just a statement of rebellion? Engineering statement?
Marc Raibert
It was born of me being a contrarian.
It was born of me being a contrarian.
Lex Fridman
It’s a symbol.
It’s a symbol.
Marc Raibert
Someone told me once that I was wearing one when I only had one or two and they said, “Those things are so old-fashioned. You can’t wear that, Marc.” And I stopped wearing them for about a week and then I said, “I’m not going to let them tell me what to do.” And so every day since, pretty much.
Someone told me once that I was wearing one when I only had one or two and they said, “Those things are so old-fashioned. You can’t wear that, Marc.” And I stopped wearing them for about a week and then I said, “I’m not going to let them tell me what to do.” And so every day since, pretty much.
Lex Fridman
So it’s a symbol.
So it’s a symbol.
Marc Raibert
That was years ago. That was 20 years ago. 15 years ago probably.
That was years ago. That was 20 years ago. 15 years ago probably.
Lex Fridman
That says something about your personality. That’s great.
That says something about your personality. That’s great.
Marc Raibert
It took me a while to realize that I was a contrarian, but it can be a useful tool.
It took me a while to realize that I was a contrarian, but it can be a useful tool.
Lex Fridman
Have you had people tell you on the robotics side that, “I don’t think you could do this”? A negative motivation?
Have you had people tell you on the robotics side that, “I don’t think you could do this”? A negative motivation?
Marc Raibert
I’d rather talk about, when we were doing a lot of DARPA work, there was a Marine, Ed Tovar, who’s still around. What he would always say is when someone would say, “You can’t do that.” He’d say, “Why not?” And it’s a great question. I ask all the time when I’m thinking, “We’re not going to do that nice thing.” “Why not?” And I give him credit for opening my eyes to resisting that.
I’d rather talk about, when we were doing a lot of DARPA work, there was a Marine, Ed Tovar, who’s still around. What he would always say is when someone would say, “You can’t do that.” He’d say, “Why not?” And it’s a great question. I ask all the time when I’m thinking, “We’re not going to do that nice thing.” “Why not?” And I give him credit for opening my eyes to resisting that.
Advice for young people
Lex Fridman
So the Hawaiian shirt is almost a symbol of “why not?” Okay. What advice would you give to young folks that are trying to figure out what they want to do with their life? How to have a life they can be proud of? How they can have a career they can be proud of?
So the Hawaiian shirt is almost a symbol of “why not?” Okay. What advice would you give to young folks that are trying to figure out what they want to do with their life? How to have a life they can be proud of? How they can have a career they can be proud of?
Marc Raibert
When I was teaching at MIT, for a while, I had undergraduate advisees where people would have to meet with me once a semester or something and they frequently would ask what they should do. And I think the advice I used to give was something like, “Well, if you had no constraints on you, no resource constraints, no opportunity constraints and no skill constraints, what could you imagine doing?” And I said, “Well, start there and see how close you can get to what’s realistic for how close you can get.” The other version of that is try and figure out what you want to do and do that. A lot of people think that they’re in a channel and there’s only limited opportunities, but it’s usually wider than they think.
When I was teaching at MIT, for a while, I had undergraduate advisees where people would have to meet with me once a semester or something and they frequently would ask what they should do. And I think the advice I used to give was something like, “Well, if you had no constraints on you, no resource constraints, no opportunity constraints and no skill constraints, what could you imagine doing?” And I said, “Well, start there and see how close you can get to what’s realistic for how close you can get.” The other version of that is try and figure out what you want to do and do that. A lot of people think that they’re in a channel and there’s only limited opportunities, but it’s usually wider than they think.
Lex Fridman
The opportunities really are limitless. But at the same time, you want to pick a thing and it’s the diligence and really, really pursue it. And really pursue it. Because sometimes the really special stuff happens after years of pursuit.
The opportunities really are limitless. But at the same time, you want to pick a thing and it’s the diligence and really, really pursue it. And really pursue it. Because sometimes the really special stuff happens after years of pursuit.
Marc Raibert
Yeah. Oh, absolutely. It can take a while.
Yeah. Oh, absolutely. It can take a while.
Lex Fridman
I mean, you’ve been doing this for 40 plus years.
I mean, you’ve been doing this for 40 plus years.
Marc Raibert
Some people think I’m in a rut. And in fact, some of the inspiration for the AI Institute is to say, “I’ve been working on locomotion for however many years it was, let’s do something else.” And it’s a really fascinating and interesting challenge.
Some people think I’m in a rut. And in fact, some of the inspiration for the AI Institute is to say, “I’ve been working on locomotion for however many years it was, let’s do something else.” And it’s a really fascinating and interesting challenge.
Lex Fridman
And you’re hoping to show it off also in the same way it has been done with Boston Dynamics?
And you’re hoping to show it off also in the same way it has been done with Boston Dynamics?
Marc Raibert
Just about to start showing some stuff off. I hope we have a YouTube channel. I mean one of the challenges is, it’s one thing to show athletic skills on YouTube. Showing cognitive function is a lot harder, and I haven’t quite figured out yet how that’s going to work.
Just about to start showing some stuff off. I hope we have a YouTube channel. I mean one of the challenges is, it’s one thing to show athletic skills on YouTube. Showing cognitive function is a lot harder, and I haven’t quite figured out yet how that’s going to work.
Lex Fridman
There might be a way.
There might be a way.
Marc Raibert
There’s a way.
There’s a way.
Lex Fridman
There’s a way.
There’s a way.
Marc Raibert
Why not?
Why not?
Lex Fridman
I also do think sucking at a task is also compelling. The incremental improvement. A robot being really terrible at a task and then slowly becoming better. Even in athletic intelligence, honestly. Learning to walk and falling and slowly figuring that out, I think there’s something extremely compelling about that. We like flaws, especially with the cognitive task. It’s okay to be clumsy. It’s okay to be confused and a little silly and all that stuff. It feels like in that space is where we can-
I also do think sucking at a task is also compelling. The incremental improvement. A robot being really terrible at a task and then slowly becoming better. Even in athletic intelligence, honestly. Learning to walk and falling and slowly figuring that out, I think there’s something extremely compelling about that. We like flaws, especially with the cognitive task. It’s okay to be clumsy. It’s okay to be confused and a little silly and all that stuff. It feels like in that space is where we can-
Marc Raibert
There’s charm.
There’s charm.
Lex Fridman
… There’s charm and there’s something inspiring about a robot sucking and then becoming less terrible slowly at a task.
… There’s charm and there’s something inspiring about a robot sucking and then becoming less terrible slowly at a task.
Marc Raibert
No, I think you’re right.
No, I think you’re right.
Lex Fridman
That reveals something about ourselves. Ultimately, that’s what’s one of the coolest things about robots, is it’s a mirror about what makes humans special. Just by watching how hard it is to make a robot do the things that humans do. You realize how special we are. What do you think is the meaning of this whole thing? Why are we here? Marc, do you ever ask about the big questions as you try to create these humanoid, human-like intelligence systems?
That reveals something about ourselves. Ultimately, that’s what’s one of the coolest things about robots, is it’s a mirror about what makes humans special. Just by watching how hard it is to make a robot do the things that humans do. You realize how special we are. What do you think is the meaning of this whole thing? Why are we here? Marc, do you ever ask about the big questions as you try to create these humanoid, human-like intelligence systems?
Marc Raibert
I don’t know. I think you have to have fun while you’re here. That’s about all I know. It would be a waste not to.
I don’t know. I think you have to have fun while you’re here. That’s about all I know. It would be a waste not to.
Lex Fridman
The ride is pretty short, so might as well have fun. Marc, I’m a huge fan of yours. It’s a huge honor that you would talk with me. This is really amazing and your work for many decades has been amazing and I can’t wait to see what you do at the AI Institute. I’m going to be waiting impatiently for the videos and the demos and the next robot meetup for maybe Atlas and Optimus to hang out.
The ride is pretty short, so might as well have fun. Marc, I’m a huge fan of yours. It’s a huge honor that you would talk with me. This is really amazing and your work for many decades has been amazing and I can’t wait to see what you do at the AI Institute. I’m going to be waiting impatiently for the videos and the demos and the next robot meetup for maybe Atlas and Optimus to hang out.
Marc Raibert
I would love to do that. That would be fun.
I would love to do that. That would be fun.
Lex Fridman
Thank you so much for talking.
Thank you so much for talking.
Marc Raibert
Thank you. It was fun talking to you.
Thank you. It was fun talking to you.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Marc Raibert. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Arthur C. Clark. “Whether we’re based on carbon or on silken makes no fundamental difference. We should each be treated with appropriate respect.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Marc Raibert. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Arthur C. Clark. “Whether we’re based on carbon or on silken makes no fundamental difference. We should each be treated with appropriate respect.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Omar Suleiman: Palestine, Gaza, Oct 7, Israel, Resistance, Faith & Islam | Lex Fridman Podcast #411
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #411 with Omar Suleiman.
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And now, dear friends, here’s Omar Suleiman. What did you think, feel, and pray for in the days that followed October 7th?
Shireen Abu Akleh, a Palestinian American journalist, is shot dead in 2022 in front of the world. The United States says initially that if it is shown that Israel was complicit or that Israel carried out the execution, then there will be consequences. Of course, once it was shown that Israel was indeed responsible for the bullet that killed Shireen Abu Akleh, the United States did absolutely nothing. Shireen’s funeral was attacked. The pallbearers were beaten. Her casket almost fell. And again, the world is watching.
The aggression against worshipers in Al-Aqsa is getting worse. You have the Flag March, the Jerusalem Flag March where extremist settlers are let loose and wild on Palestinians by the thousands, chanting things like, “Muhammad is dead. We’re going to murder you, Arabs.” All with the protection of the state with Israeli soldiers. And throughout this time, it’s like something bad is going to happen.
And then 2023 comes along. You had 13,000 settler units in 2023. A plan of 13,000 settler units, the most in the history of the occupation, the most racist and extremist government, Israeli government, that you have ever had. And people don’t realize that in 2023 alone, over 600 Palestinians had already been killed. It just doesn’t make Western headlines. And so, if you wonder why the American public sees this so much differently than the rest of the world, it’s because American media shows the American public something so much different than what the rest of the world has shown. And so, this was a pressure cooker. This was going to explode. It is extremely predictable. You’ve given people absolutely no hope. And so, I think that as we’re watching that, it’s important for us to actually interrogate the ignorance that people have of the Palestinian plight, the ignorance of the root causes of this violence, the ignorance of the occupation. And also, ask yourselves, why is it that Israel can violate every single international law on the books, have all these determinations, and the United States keeps on issuing these inconsequential statements while also, at the same time, funding these aggressions?
So, it’s like, “Stop the settler violence.” The United States will issue statement after statements, “Stop the settler violence. Stop the incursions on Mosque Al-Aqsa. Stop violating the people in Jerusalem. Stop trying to wipe out the Palestinian people. Stop openly saying that there is no two-state solution, that we will never allow a Palestinian state to be established.” But at the same time, “Here’s your $3 billion check.” And if the United Nations issues any sort of resolution against Israel, or if any international body tries to hold Israel accountable, the United States stands in the way of any accountability. It’s important for us to ask why?
And so, I always tell people, “Read beyond the headlines.” Even now with the backdrop of a genocide, over 30,000 people have been killed. If you open the front page of most American mainstream sites, you will see stories about the hostages, the Israeli hostages. You will see stories about October 7th, but October 8th is missing. October 9th is missing. October 10th is missing. A hundred days of genocide are missing. And you’ll barely have a story that shows up every once in a while that is still very much so controlled by the Israeli propaganda machine, because while Israel kills Palestinian journalists, it also makes sure that American journalists are only able to tell a certain story. They’re only able to see Gaza from a certain perspective. They’re only able to speak about Gaza from a certain perspective.
And this is well-documented, that they have to review their media tapes with Israel before they can publicize them. And so, this is state propaganda at this point. The mainstream media and the United States government are in lockstep, telling a very skewed story. And that is leading to a greater sense of frustration. And I think the American public has been wronged as well by not knowing what’s happening.
You interviewed Mohammed El-Kurd, met him. What did the world do when it saw the images of the Kurd household being taken over by a guy from Brooklyn or Long Island who just shows up and lays claim to their home? What did the world do when American settlers suddenly decided they could walk into historic Palestinian homes and throw people out of their homes? What did the world do? And so, yes, this is very much so connected to the broader issue of Palestinian existence.
If you realize here, we are erased in peace and we are erased in war. In peace, it’s the Abraham Accords, agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors, which is supposedly to solve the Palestinian problem. The Palestinians are absent from their own fate, from discussions about their own fate. In war, it’s the Israel-Hamas war. It’s Israel and Gaza. Where are the Palestinian people? The millions of Palestinian people that have either been removed from their land or are being tormented on their land, where are they in this discussion?
If you turn on a TV or if you open a mainstream news site, these sites are justifying your slaughter and people are being killed over there because they look like me, because they’re Palestinian like I’m Palestinian. And so, we’re watching this in diaspora with agony. We can’t go, we can’t heal our loved ones. We can’t comfort the people that are there. I recently spoke to a doctor who’s lost 75 relatives, 75 relatives in Gaza, and he’s a medical doctor. And all he wants to do is get in there and just use his medical expertise to help his people and he can’t.
And so, we’re watching it from afar, but our hearts are there. They are in the buildings that are being destroyed. They’re in the hospitals that are being bombed. They are there and they’re with the people.
I always say that if they’ve made them faceless, they can’t make us voiceless. They have reduced our casualties in Palestine to a number. The number is hundreds a day, over 30,000 people. We’re averaging 10,000 people a month. The fact that they’ve been turned into faceless numbers with no stories, with no humanity, makes it that much more important for us to tell their stories here. And to remind the world that you’ve lost your humanity if you can watch this unfold and not even have the decency to call for a ceasefire. I mean, that’s where we’ve reached. That’s how low it is right now. Calling for a ceasefire has now become radical.
So, we have to remind the world that if you’re okay with the demolition of an entire town, or a city, or whatever it is that you want to call Gaza because it wasn’t always the Gaza Strip, but if you’re okay with this and you’re okay with this casualty count every single day, it’s not just them who are being killed; it’s your hearts that are dying. And I think that when I look back to Dr. Martin Luther King Jr, and I mentioned this, he wrote about Vietnam. He said that if America was to succumb to its spiritual death, the autopsy would read Vietnam. I would say that it would read Gaza now.
Wael was reporting on TV when an airstrike hits his wife, two kids and a grandchild. He goes to the scene. And he said this, “You never expect as a journalist to be the subject of the story.” Suddenly, the camera’s on him mourning over his dead wife and kids and grandkid, and he even says it in Arabic. He says, “They’re taking it out on our children. They’re taking it out on our children.” I’ve heard this from multiple people that have had relatives targeted that, “I wish it was me instead.” He gets back on camera the same day because he feels a responsibility to continue to cover the lives of the people of Gaza. He understands that his story, as devastating as it is, is not unique in regards to the people of Gaza, that there are many people whose families have been killed in airstrikes. All two million people have been traumatized in some way. And so, he gets back on camera, tells the story again, and then he is targeted himself, his arm struck. His cameraman, Samer Abudaqa, dies in front of him. He bleeds out. Wael watches him bleed out for hours. And while any aid workers try to reach them in the building that they were in, snipers would shoot all of those that were rushing to Samer.
So, he watches his cameraman and one of his best friends bleed out to death. Wael goes to the hospital. His arm is wrapped up, gets treatment. He’s back on camera the next day. A few weeks later, another child is killed again with his friend in a car. So, this was a targeted airstrike. His son is driving. And his son and his best friend are hit in an airstrike. Wael leads the funeral prayer, is back on camera again, and speaks with such dignity, with such compassion. One of the things that always gets to me, as a Palestinian and as a Muslim too, is that we are portrayed to be these beasts and savages. Tell me a man that would be put through what Wael was put through and still stand on that pulpit and in front of the world with such dignity, with such grace. He continues to tell the story. Wael has become a hero to many of us, and he would be a hero in a world that wasn’t anti-Palestinian. And unfortunately, Wael has not only lost his family, he’s not only lost much of his own existence, but Wael is part of the greater story of erasure. So, even though he’s telling the story of the people of Gaza and he is the story of the people of Gaza, most people will never learn about Wael Al-Dahdouh.
I remember in 2021, there was an image that I will never forget of children having to go back to school after the bombardment of 2021. And next to them, they would have the empty chairs and the posters of the child that used to sit in that chair. I think what encapsulates it most for me, an image that I grew up with was the image of Muhammad al-Durrah, who was in his father’s lap over 20 years ago, and his father was begging for Israel to spare his child. And Muhammad was murdered in his lap. And you know what happened these last rounds? His other kids were murdered. So, Muhammad’s brothers were murdered and his father’s been on the run.
Every single person in Gaza has witnessed multiple wars, has witnessed the greatest suffocation of occupation, has even had their diets restricted, and has suffered under Israel state policy, which is called mowing the lawn. And everyone should look this up. This is what Israeli ministers refer to as routine bombardment of Gaza, mowing the lawn, which shows you that before they called us animals, they considered us insects. And unfortunately, the casualty counts get higher and higher every time, and people become more and more desperate, more and more helpless.
Gaza has been, unfortunately, the worst manifestation of anti-Palestinian bigotry. I mean, 60% of the population is a refugee population. What that means, and people do need to understand this, is that people move to Gaza from other parts of occupied territory to find refuge and were practically living on top of each other. There are people that are in the Gaza Strip that know that they had homes right beyond that apartheid wall and those homes were stolen from them, and they can’t even enter that territory anymore.
And they know that on the other side of that wall, there’s life. On the other side of that wall, there’s opportunity. On the other side of that wall, you have a passport, you have an airport, you have the ability to travel, you have the ability to export and import, you can dream. But behind that wall, you are to live until the next airstrike. You are to live until Israel mows the lawn again and hope that you’re not part of the grass. That’s what Gaza has been all of these years.
I want you to think about what you saw in Ukraine. Look, imagine coming back to school in Gaza in some destroyed building. You’re missing legs. You’re missing arms. You have white phosphorus burns. Have you ever seen what white phosphorus does to a person? There’s a reason why it’s a war crime. You have white phosphorus burns. Your mom’s dead. Your dad’s dead. All of your uncles and aunts are dead. All of your siblings are dead. Somehow you got pulled out of the rubble.
In my own family, my father’s in-laws, my father remarried after my mother passed away and they’re in Gaza, all of them were killed in an airstrike, except for an elderly aunt who somehow made it out of the rubble a day later. If you’re a child that’s been pulled out of the rubble, what are you going to grow up with? I mean, what are you supposed to feel? What are you supposed to think? And then you have racist commentators that say, “They could have turned that into a Singapore. The Palestinians are the authors of their own destruction, because if they wanted to, they could have turned this into a place of prosperity, but they keep on bringing destruction upon themselves.”
So, at the root of this is a bigotry. And again, this idea that Palestinians are savages, they’re animals, and the only way to deal with them is to continuously mow the lawn while simultaneously expanding the occupation and erasing anything that was ever called Palestine and any human being that was ever called the Palestinian.
You’ve already decided then whose life is worth more than the other. And so, instead of talking about the future of Israeli lives, why don’t you talk about the present of Palestinian lives? Instead of talking about whether or not your state will be secure in the future, talk to me about why you’re killing children now. Two thirds of the 30,000 civilians are women and children. And so, we can’t talk about what these children are going to grow up with. We should talk about whether or not these children are going to grow up in the first place. And that should be what dominates our conscience right now, and what drives our policies, and what drives our emotions right now.
There’s a reason why it’s called Palestinian self-determination. The United States likes to use it in all of its inconsequential statements, that we need Palestinian self-determination too. But the United States also voted against 138 states in the United Nations to allow for Palestinian self-determination. Self-determination means I get to pursue my own course of worth. I get to pursue my own happiness. I don’t have to depend on the benevolence of my occupier and when my occupier-
We talk about Israel’s right to defend itself. Israel is the occupier. Any occupied people by international law have the right to defend themselves, and any occupation is unjustified and illegal. And so, that’s where I start from. That’s the point that I come to this with. I think that the problem is that the Palestinians are told, “Find better ways to resist,” and then they are demonized when they try to find any other way to resist. If you go back a few years ago, you had the Great Return March. People in Gaza marched to the wall in what was one of the most inspiring protests or demonstrations that I had ever seen, March to the Wall, nonviolent protest, and snipers took out their legs. AP actually documented that Israeli snipers had knee counts, where you had an Israeli soldier that would say, “I took out 45 knees.” They actually had a register, a scroll of knee counts. And so, you have all these kids in Gaza walking around without legs now because they were targeted by snipers when they marched to the wall.
We’re told to find methods of nonviolent resistance, but when we boycott, when we launch boycotts around the world, in response to this transgression, in response to this ongoing oppression that the world powers have shown either the inability or the unwillingness to reign in, we’re told that that’s antisemitic, even though it is based on the South African method of bringing an end to the apartheid regime there. So, don’t respond with violence. Don’t respond nonviolently. Don’t protest. Don’t try to use people power in the face of global impotence at the political level.
Instead, let’s just keep talking about the two-state solution. And while talking about the two-state solution, if you were to look at a map under every single Israeli regime, conservative or liberal, whatever it is, the settlements have expanded. More Palestinian land has disappeared, more Palestinians have been dispossessed, more Palestinians have been killed. And so, we have these little pieces of land that keep on shrinking, and Jerusalem keeps disappearing, and there’s aggression whether Palestinians are resisting or not. But then we’re told, “Why can’t you people just pursue peace? Why can’t you just believe in a better way?”
All along, we’re hearing Israeli ministers become far more radical and open about their intentions to wipe us off the face of the earth. And that is actually their policy. It’s not just slogans. It’s not fringe elements. Actual Israeli ministers starting from the prime Minister himself, who has executed a policy of the removal of all Palestinian lands and Palestinian lives. And then we’re told, “Peace, peace, peace, peace.” And it is awfully ugly when you use the language of peace to suffocate the work of justice.
Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., one of his early sermons was something along the lines of, “When Peace Is Obnoxious,” when peace is obnoxious. It was in the 1950s around the Montgomery Bus Boycott, and he talked about how this obsession with the language of peace, is usually used to try to keep people in status quo and make them complacent with their miserable situation. That has been the story of the Palestinian people, that they’ve been told that if you do things differently, then you will find peace. But everything the Palestinians have tried, inside and outside, has been met with repression, the most violent forms of it there in Gaza and beyond. And so look, I start from the place of wanting to see peace. I want to see a situation in which no innocent people lose their lives, but we have to analyze the situation with some justice, with some fairness. What would any group of people do in this situation? That doesn’t mean that you hope for hell. That means that you analyze the existing circumstances of hell, which was life in Gaza even before October 7th.
It’s not because of American freedom. It’s because America is directly participating. The United States government is directly participating in the worst genocide that we have ever seen in our lives, playing out on screen, on social media, and we can’t do anything about it. So, I think that the point is that we need those international bodies. We need methods of effective accountability, and I would love to see blame properly assigned, and anyone that kills any innocent human being, taken to account, anyone that is guilty of a war crime, taken to account. We have to ask ourselves, why is it that Israel has violated over 63 United Nations resolutions, has expanded its occupation, has killed over 600 Palestinians before October 7th? Why is it that Israel cannot be held accountable? And so when you talk about words that get thrown around, that are used to justify violence against more innocent people, when I’m asked about terrorism, is it only terrorism if it’s a non-state actor, if someone’s sitting inside a room of suits, and can press a button and terrorize thousands of people and murder innocent people with no consequences, how is that not terrorism?
So, if terrorism is only to be assigned to non-state actors, then it’s a word without function. In fact, it’s a word that justifies more terror that is then reigned upon innocent populations. We have to have moral consistency. Children should not be killed. Non-combatant should not be targeted. We can all agree upon that. Why aren’t there proper investigative bodies, and then, proper international bodies of accountability then, that can execute their findings in a way that makes the world a better place. In a way that actually brings about more peace? And so, I think this is where we’re at right now, and this is the frustration, and this is the place that the Palestinians have been left.
And I remember responding to a local reporter, most people I just ignored. I responded to a local reporter. I said, “I’ve got people in my community that have already lost 10, 15 relatives at that point. Now, it’s 20, 30, and you haven’t said a word, and now you’re reaching out to me about the potential violence of Muslims in America. This is great. This is just like 911.” What are you going to do to restrain, you angry Muslims, from responding to what’s happening overseas, and responding to the call of a global day of Jihad?
Guess what? That night, this man takes out a military knife and attacks a six-year-old boy, a six-year-old Palestinian boy. By the way, it gets worse the more details that you know. And I recently had a chance to go and speak to his mom because she was in the hospital when I was there for the funeral, so I had a chance to visit her not too long ago.
Usually, in a scene like that, police are hesitant to classify something as a hate crime. It was classified as a hate crime the very same day. The thing is that, who’s complicit in that hate crime? What filled that man’s head for him to believe that he was doing an act of good by murdering a 6-year-old Palestinian boy? And in reality, uncle Joe was motivated by President Joe Biden, who repeated a debunked report that there were 40 beheaded Israeli babies. And he said, “I saw 40 beheaded Israeli babies.” The White House walked it back afterwards in a statement that no one reads because it was factually false. But Uncle Joe heard it, and had been binge-watching media about these violent Palestinians, and suddenly the propaganda overcame his own humanity and what he knew of that family. And he went in and ruined their lives.
And now, just like any mom, she hasn’t moved a thing. His bike is still in the same place it was. His toys are still in the same place. She’s left with this great void, this great emptiness. If that was the only crime, it would be enough to wake this country up and say, “Oh, no, this is not where we need to go. Oh, no.” Right? The last thing she heard him say was, “Oh no,” if that was it.
And I got the news, by the way, when I was ironically at a protest. We were protesting on Saturday, Downtown Dallas, and I started getting all these texts about what happened in Chicago. Oh, no. Right? No Muslims attacked anyone. The media was in a frenzy over the global day of Jihad. I got called by national news outlets and local news outlets, “What are you going to do about Muslims that are going to turn into monsters, and start killing people in the streets?” Next thing we know, we have a dead six-year-old Palestinian boy. I went to his funeral, and that’s speaks to the proximity part of things.
Yeah, it felt like stepping into Gaza for a moment. It didn’t feel like America. Didn’t feel like America. It felt like stepping into Gaza. His casket, was wrapped in a Palestinian flag. There was not just sadness at his funeral, but a deep sense of anger. At the funeral, some of his family members shouted out, “Joe Biden, you did this. Joe Biden, you did this.”
And I remember the next day, it was right after the funeral, looking at the front page of CNN, and the story of Wadea was buried in the last section, and it was right over all these meaningless ads. And I thought to myself, that’s it. If this was an Arab man, let’s be real. Let’s be honest here. If this was a Palestinian landlord that stabbed a six-year-old Jewish boy to death, this would have gotten more attention. It would’ve been the front page of the news. And rightfully so, people would have grieved over the insanity of stabbing a six-year-old boy 26 times. Wadea became an afterthought the very next day.
And so it’s an extension of the bigotry, an extension of the racism, and there’s so much that happens after that. There’s the terrible stabbing of Detroit synagogue president, Samantha Woll, and it’s horrible. She was stabbed in her driveway, immediately front page of all the news outlets. Immediately, it’s the main news story. And immediately, the implications are, “There go the Muslims. The Palestinians have lost their minds. The Muslims have… They are who we thought they were. That’s what it is. They are who we thought they were. They went and they stabbed a synagogue president.” It turned out it wasn’t a hate crime, although it’s an awful crime. It turned out it wasn’t a hate crime. Wadea is an afterthought.
I had people reach out to me afterwards expressing condolences, and I responded to them, those who have justified the genocide in Gaza but that were somehow offering condolences for Wadea privately, of course. By the way, if a Muslim would’ve committed that crime, every single Muslim leader would’ve had press in front of their door to condemn that crime. We would’ve all been made complicit.
Had people reach out to me, say, “I’m sorry about what happened with Wadea. It’s terrible. I saw you at the funeral, praying for you.” My response was, “What’s the difference between Wadea and a boy in Gaza? What’s the difference between me and Wadea?” I’m a Palestinian child. My parents made it out of Palestine. I was born in this country. If I didn’t have the opportunity to grow up here and to become the person that I became, you would’ve been justifying my murder right now. You would’ve been okay with my genocide. You would’ve been giving the talking points to the press to erase me. But you feel sorry because Wadea was killed.
And I think this is when we say that anti-Palestinian bigotry is an extension of Islamophobia. If a mosque gets targeted here, people rightfully rush to protect that mosque and say, “This is horrible, and it shouldn’t happen.” But when you have an Israeli soldier bombing a mosque and laughing like a maniac on video, and it’s going viral on TikTok, and there’s no way to reign that in. And you don’t have a word of condemnation about it. In fact, you are standing in the way of a ceasefire, then you’re a hypocrite. There’s no way around it. You are a hypocrite. What’s the difference between a mosque here and a mosque there? What’s the difference between a Palestinian life here and a Palestinian life there? If you’re okay with me being murdered there, don’t say that you care about my life here. And so that hypocrisy has been laid bare.
We have said multiple times, masks are falling, masks are falling. People that we thought were decent people, somehow have found it in themselves to justify a genocide. There is no shortage at this point of videos. And again, I could have made the excuse for you, maybe in the first few weeks, that you hadn’t seen enough. But with all social media suppression across all platforms, there isn’t a single platform that hasn’t suppressed Palestinian voices. With all that suppression, there are enough videos at this point of children whose heads have been blowing off. Of children walking around without limbs. Of parents carrying their kids in bags, not body bags, I mean grocery bags because they don’t even have body bags, and screaming out, and saying, “Why are you doing this to me? Make it stop.” And you come back, and you tell the person, ” It’s Hamas’ fault.”
Where is your humanity? Where is your sense of decency? Isn’t that the logic of the so-called terrorism that you condemn? Yeah, you can wipe out entire populations. You should have talked to Hamas. It’s Hamas’ fault. All the kids in the West Bank… Where does this end? So, what are your moral boundaries here? If that’s the logic that you’re okay with, then, in that case, when there’s a mass shooter in a school in the United States, just bomb the whole school. In fact, bomb the whole town if you can’t find the mass shooter. Where does this end for you? And so when I say people have lost their humanity, they’re killing us overseas, but their hearts are dying. People have lost their humanity. They’ve lost any sense of morality and their moral boundaries, and being there, and participating in this funeral, it was anger. I’m not used to that. I’m not used to that.
I’m an imam. I pastor to people. I went to Christchurch, and that was the worst I’d ever seen before where 50 Muslims were killed by a white supremacist, and he murdered them with such callousness. And I remember being at those funerals, and there was anger, but it was just profound sadness because at least the rest of the world could all come out in one voice and say, “That’s wrong.” Now, most of the world sees what’s happening in Gaza and says, this is disgusting. Most of the world sees this, and says, “This is a genocide.” But we happen to live in this bubble here where we’re constantly being told, “We did this to ourselves.” And that’s the same logic that led to our initial expulsion, 1948. What was the crime of those 700,000 Palestinians that were driven out of their home in 1948? What did they do? They did not commit the Holocaust. They didn’t have a mass murder of Jews at their hands. What did they do? What crime were they paying for? And so, it’s been the consistent theme, this is the story of our people, not since October 7th, this is the story of our people for the last 75 years.
The United States is not just responsible at the governmental level for the genocide. It’s responsible for letting it get to this point in the first place. We have funded that arsenal. We’ve given them the most sophisticated weapons in the world to test on the most desperate population in the world. We’ve given them the weapons. It’s been bipartisan. We have issued, at most, inconsequential statements of condemnation, but at the same time, stopped any international body of law from actually holding it accountable.
So, the United States, at this point, unfortunately, has rightfully lost all credibility. It should remove itself from this because it is not an honest peace broker. I think Americans are probably sick of us paying for wars in general. I think Americans are probably sick of our tax dollars going to funding a genocide, while we have a rise of homelessness and income disparity here in the United States. I think that Americans probably don’t like that we’re making ourselves so deeply unpopular in the world because of Israel’s actions. So, in the immediate moment, make the stop.
The United States could have had a ceasefire a long time ago. The United States could have ended this genocide right away. The reason why this is continuing is because of US foreign policy. And in the process of Joe Biden talking about managing this crisis and talking about making things better, there have only been more bills that have come out of Congress. In fact, he’s bypassed Congress to fund the arsenal, to keep replenishing the arsenal. Stop paying for weapons. Stop paying for someone else’s war crimes. Stop protecting another country as it commits these war crimes. And if you can’t be an honest peace broker, get out of the process.
He has failed to speak to Palestinian humanity. He has spoken with deep passion and concern, as has Anthony Blinken, about the devastation in Israel and the way that people are feeling in Israel and has shown nothing of that sort towards Palestinians. We don’t want the rhetoric. We really don’t want the rhetoric. When people say, “Call for a ceasefire,” the United States has had an opportunity, and has an opportunity to really walk back and reflect on its entire policy towards Israel-Palestine. This is a moment of reflection. This is a moment of…
And so we will make him hear us set the polls and any politician, for Congress or otherwise, that has not called for a ceasefire that has been a part of this dehumanization, we will make sure that we cease support for them in any way as a community. It’s only right.
So he lost us a long time ago, but he’s definitely not getting us back after this in any way. And I can’t speak for all Muslims, but I think that come November, he and all of those politicians, especially in swing states that have turned their back on the Muslim community, and not just the Muslim community, by the way. 67% of this country wants a ceasefire. Three-fourths of Democratic voters want a ceasefire. Half of Republican voters want a ceasefire. It’s not just the Muslim community. This is not some radical opinion to call for a ceasefire, and every single politician that has refused to hear us is going to pay a price at the polls, as they should.
That doesn’t mean that we’re under any illusion that the other side promises us anything better. In fact, it feels like Republicans have simply rushed to out-racist the Democrats, to outpace them in terms of talking about how they’re going to be more unapologetic in supporting Israel unconditionally. It’s been pathetic, but something has to change, and I think that Americans of conscience have to look at how this failed political system has hurt people here and abroad and talk about how to transcend that with just more humanity. Again, when you have 67% of the American public that wants a ceasefire, but only a handful of congressmen out of over 500 can muster up the courage in the face of these super PACs to say that we should stop the genocide, what are you asking for here?
You’re asking for the genocide to stop. You’re asking for Israeli hostages to be brought home. You’re asking for Palestinian prisoners to be released. You’re asking for peace and to start carving the path out to end this once and for all in the most ambiguous way possible, by the way, because there aren’t many radical American politicians. It’s the way that the system is. In the most ambiguous, bare way possible, and you can’t even bring yourself to do that. This is already a failed democracy then. All the while, again, it always boggles my mind, if you’re from the America First crew, what’s America First about? Funneling billions and billions and billions of dollars to Israel while it carries out this genocide while people are starving here.
And if you’re part of the human rights crew and progressive crew, they have a term called progressive except Palestine, right? PeP, Progressive except Palestine. Where are all your notions of social justice? You talk about policing here, but you don’t talk about who trains our police departments in many major cities and the type of brutality that’s being carried out there. You talk about human rights at the border here, but you don’t talk about the assault on people at the border there. You talk about all of these things here, but you somehow use the exact same framings against the people there. So it’s exposed, I think, the moral bankruptcy of both political polar opposites that exist in this country right now and hopefully, evoked a greater societal sentiment to say this is ridiculous.
One of the things that is happening is that more people are getting their news outside of legacy media outlets. You can’t hide that many dead babies anymore. You just can’t. More people have woken up to the Palestinian plight now than ever before. More people are outraged that this has been our American foreign policy all throughout Democratic and Republican administrations. This is what we’ve been paying for? This is what we’ve been excusing? And Israeli leaders literally spit in the faces of whoever the American president is and says, “Yeah, we don’t care what they tell us to do.”
American leadership says, “We’re pushing Israel to minimize the casualties, to get less indiscriminate with its bombing, to manage the crisis, get a few more humanitarian corridors in, to make sure that Gaza is not evacuated and not ethnically cleansed, to make sure Palestinians can come back.” And Netanyahu comes on TV and says, “From the river to the sea,” how ironic is that? From the river to the sea, and that is his policy. “We’re going to make sure that Israel controls from the river to the sea, and we’re going to push Palestinians into Sinai and Muslim countries need to take them in.”
You have Israeli ministers, national defense ministers saying things openly like, “We want to thin out the population,” i.e. ethnic cleansing. “We want to remove people, and the Muslim world needs to step up and take in these refugees.”
And the American administration or the American President says, or an American Secretary of State says, “We’re talking to them and we’re making sure that that’s not going to happen.” And if one of their ministers says something, Blinken maybe tweets out something about how that’s not going to happen, but then it happens anyway, and then we still write them the checks.
So I think most of the American public is probably going to get sick of this at some point, and just people of decency and people of conscience are going to say, “Yeah, this is not something we want to be a part of anymore.”
So what I remember first and foremost about the protest is that they were nowhere to be found on mainstream media, which was expected. But what I also remember from the actual day of and from all of the pro Palestine rallies is that I have never seen a more multi-faith, more diverse group of people consistently coming out for Palestine against the genocide in Gaza than I have this time around. And I think that has been the experience all around. There has been a pronounced Jewish presence, Jewish voice for peace, if not now, other anti-Zionist Jewish groups, groups that are against the genocide, against the occupation. Former Israeli soldiers even that have been showing up at these protests. There has been a pronounced presence from Native American groups, indigenous groups, all across the board, right? Christians, Jews, Muslims. I’ve never seen more diversity at these rallies than I’ve seen this time around, which I think is a sign of where things are going.
And if you look at the under 35 opinion polls, it’s very clear that there’s a generational gap here. That the country is moving into a more coherent direction and understanding what has been happening over there, and people from all backgrounds are standing up to it now.
I will tell you what many people are not seeing, Columbia University, two former IDF soldiers spraying Palestinian protesters with skunk water, which is what the IDF uses on Palestinian protesters and sometimes on worshipers on their way to Masjid al-Aqsa, which has multiple health repercussions. And so I was reading about how one of the students that was sprayed on campus, that Columbia Palestinian student has showered, at this point of us doing this podcast, 11 times, cannot get the smell out of her, has suffered all sorts of health issues as a result of being sprayed. Again, people are not seeing the other side here. People are not seeing what we’ve had to deal with at these protests. The open bigotry, and I want you to think about this by the way.
People go and serve in the IDF and then come back to the United States or the United Kingdom, and they’re not stigmatized for participating in apartheid policies or participating in a genocide. How am I supposed to feel as a Palestinian knowing that this guy right next to me participated in murdering my relatives in Gaza and has open rein to say what he wants to say or do what he wants to do? And so we haven’t seen the other side of that as well, but I’d recommend to anyone that’s talking about pro-Palestine protests to actually go see one. If you go to the protests, you listen to what’s being said, and you don’t just capture them, you got 400,000 people. You’re going to find four stupid people at a protest of 400,000 people because the protest scene is always messy.
But I think that this is a sign of the outrage and the anger and the frustration that many students have about being silenced. Again, in the media, in academic settings, professors are losing their jobs. Students are having their faces put on trucks, being doxed, these shady watch lists that get put out. I’m on a few of them as well and I just don’t care anymore. But you got these shady watch lists. People are losing their jobs at law firms. They’re losing all of their future opportunities, young Palestinian students, because of something that they tweeted that’s being taken out of context 10 years ago when they were 17 years old. It’s ridiculous. And so I think that we have to listen to the overwhelming majority of voices of people that are demonstrating for justice, not demonstrating against anyone, but demonstrating for people.
Again, there’s a large pronounced Jewish presence at every single pro-Palestine March. In fact, if you look at the organizations, the groups that have taken over Capitol Hill and train stations, it’s been, If Not Now, Not In Our Name, Never Again Means For Anyone. It’s been Jewish groups, many Jewish anti-occupation groups that have been at the forefronts. And I think that that’s where we have to pay attention to the beauty of how diverse this movement for a free Palestine has actually been.
As far as the rise in Islamophobia, it is felt. It’s under-reported, and it is part of the same framing that has led to the devastation of our people overseas. So there’s a rise in Islamophobia. There’s a rise in anti-Semitism. There’s a rise in hatred. All of that is true, but there’s also an ongoing genocide, and that should be our priority right now to end.
You can find statements from Benjamin Netanyahu in the ’80s, ’90s, 2000s. You can find him talking about this prior to October 7th and after October 7th. He’s definitely doing this now to save his political career. I think he wants to drive this as long as he possibly can because he knows that his days in office are numbered. But let’s also ask ourselves, why is it that Benjamin Netanyahu was able to rise to power in the first place? There’s something deeply troubling about the fact that his messaging ever resonated and what the prospects are for peace if Benjamin Netanyahu is able to rise with such pronounced hateful messaging.
However, the problem of the occupation is not Benjamin Netanyahu. The problem of the occupation is the occupation. Yair Lapid was the progressive, moderate alternative, and he drove just as bigoted of an agenda against the Palestinian people as possible. So to the Palestinian that’s living in Gaza or the Palestinian in the West Bank, whoever whoever’s sitting in that seat has meant the exact same thing to them. But Benjamin Netanyahu is certainly, I think, the loudest bigot that we have seen in that seat.
Those borders were drawn across occupied land and have been expanding into Palestinian territory, and people have been thrown out of their homes systematically and transgressed upon, even in the places that they fled to, which is Gaza. So when you talk about Israel having a right to defend itself, you should be talking about Israel’s duty to protect everyone under its occupation. Either lift the occupation or protect everyone under your occupation. Where are your borders? What is your responsibility? Who are you protecting? And I think that it speaks to the fact that Israeli policy considers Palestinians to be animals. They say as much and they do as much.
I’ve spoken about James Baldwin and James Baldwin talked about this pious silence surrounding Israel that we’re supposed to pretend like it’s just another state and ignore how it came into being and what it functions as. And I think that pious silence has to be broken. I remember John Stewart when he had the Daily Show several years ago, and he talked about this policy of, ” We have to defend ourselves.” And if someone was attacking your home, what would you do?
And the response was, “Well, why are you forcing people into a closet?” So you force people into this desperate situation. You drive them out of their homes, claim their homes, and then say that you’re defending yourself against them. The default is that an occupied people have a right to defend themselves. The occupier is obligated to those that they occupy.
So instead of the United States trying to get a ceasefire through, the United States decided, let’s go bomb Yemen too. Let’s spend more money on weapons and killing innocent people, which shows you exactly where our policy always leads itself to, unfortunately. So I think that most reasonable people would say that the problem is not with Yemeni rebels attacking ships. The problem is with Israel attacking innocent Palestinian lives.
When people talk about Israeli hostages and then talk about Palestinian prisoners, there’s already a problem with that framing. First of all, 2. 2 million people in Gaza are hostages. Every Palestinian that live…
Even what happened during that four-day truce, which all of us hoped would be extended and become permanent, where 150 Palestinian prisoners were released, Israel just went and picked up another 135 in the West Bank and threw them in prisons. That’s what I mean when I say you’re not addressing the root of the problem. The root of the problem is the occupation. The root of the problem is the apartheid. The root of the problem is the desperation that then drives the creation of all sorts of circumstances that will only further lead to the devastation of everyone, right? If you don’t solve that problem. At the root of that problem is the dehumanization of the Palestinian, because no one is raising alarms for those Palestinian hostages in Israeli military prisons. No one is putting up their pictures, and no one is talking about who they are, and their human stories, and the violence that’s been wreaked against them at every level.
If you don’t solve not just the root of occupation, but also the dehumanization that drives the occupation, which is unfortunately so pervasive right now in the discourse, then you’re going to continue to have this gap in how the world sees the plight of the Palestinians and how, unfortunately, the American public sees the problem of the Palestinians.
So let’s be clear about something here, that Malcolm never himself was part of any violence. Malcolm never did anything violent. Malcolm found it hypocritical to commit the oppressed people to nonviolence while not restraining the oppressor from its violence. I agree with Malcolm. It is absolutely hypocritical to focus your attention and your energy on the oppressed people, and committing them to nonviolence, while not directing your attention to the oppressor. When you have such asymmetry, when you have a clear aggressor and aggressed upon, you have a clear colonial entity and a clear colonized people, you focus your energy on restraining the colonial power. You focus your energy on restraining the oppressor, not the oppressed. That was Malcolm’s point, and it’s clear in his messaging throughout his religious growth, because, of course, Malcolm did evolve as a person. But Malcolm found it deeply hypocritical to commit the oppressed to nonviolence.
Malcolm also had a deep understanding of the way that brutality here, state violence in the United States was connected to its state violence abroad and American imperialism as a whole. Malcolm was the first to speak on Vietnam, the first major African American leader to speak on Vietnam. Martin followed. Malcolm also went to Gaza in 1964. 1964, went to Khan Yunis, which is now under heavy bombardment, and Malcolm penned an essay on Zionism, and connected Zionism to American imperialism and the broader implications of America’s foreign policy. So Martin and Malcolm, if you look at them in the capacity of what’s happening right now, where I would say you can find something that is deeply profound, James Cone wrote a book called Malcolm & Martin: Dreams and Nightmares. He wrote something profound to the effect that Martin tried to liberate white people from their own racism, whereas Malcolm tried to liberate Black people from the effects of that racism on them. They both played a deeply important role.
Self-determination is crucial to maintain the fuel of a movement. I think one of the things that probably deeply frustrates those that have sought the erasure of Palestine is that Palestinian consciousness has only continued to grow after 75 years. Palestinians in diaspora and Palestinians within occupied territory all are deeply rooted in their Palestinian identity and existence, and they’re not going away.
So I think that that’s where the function is important of this, whereas those that are complicit in the oppression need to be liberated from their own oppression and liberated from what they’re participating in. Most Americans that I talk to, that have absolutely no idea about what’s going on, when they come to hear just a few stories of the plight of the Palestinian people, and the types of brutality that we have encountered, wake up to this and say, “Oh, my God. This is what my tax dollars go to? This is what I’m a part of?” Right? So we have to liberate people across the board from being oppressors or from being oppressed.
I mentioned 2023, 13,000 new settlement units being advanced. If that happened anywhere, right? Just think about what that means when you clear out a village or two, and it’s not that big of a territory, right? When you know that that’s happening, and when you have been subjected to that, anyone that claims to be supporting you or uplifting you from that state of misery is going to have sympathy. Whether you agree with their mission, or their methods, or not, it’s human. It is human that if anyone says that they are going to get you out of this misery, and inflict pain on those who have given you a life of pain, and promised you a future of pain, you’re going to have sympathy to that group whether you agree with them or not.
I think that the question also has to be asked, what about the Israeli public? Israel holds all of the power in that region, holds all of the power over that territory. Is able to dominate the expansion of its own territory and diminish any Palestinian territory. Is able to place restrictions whenever it wants on Palestinian movement, trying to get to their holy sites or otherwise. Whether it’s Masjid Al-Aqsa, or the Holy Sepulchre, or the Church of Nativity, right? The majority of the Israeli public, before October 7th, unfortunately, according to all polls, favors a nondemocratic regime, the end of a two-state solution, does not care about the plight of Palestinian people, the majority of the Israeli public. Why is that? And what does that mean for Palestinians, right? Especially now after this genocide, the vast majority of the Israeli public does not favor a ceasefire, right?
What are we supposed to do when we see mainstream media coming out of Israel, pop culture, TikTok videos that only speak to a greater desire to eliminate the Palestinian people, right? So anyone that says that they are going to support your plight, whether you agree with their mission or their methods, is going to resonate with that child that has grown up in those desperate circumstances. Bassem Youssef had an interview with Piers Morgan and he was talking about this. He literally gave it a human story. If you’re a child that’s grown up, you’ve lost limbs, your parents are dead, your friends are dead. You have been made a refugee two or three times already. You have no future in sight, and then someone comes to you and says, “I’m going to help you and I’m going to fight back on your behalf.” of course, it’s going to resonate. It’s human, right? So I think that it’s important for us to see the world through their eyes, rather than try to see the world through our eyes.
I do believe in the power of healing. I do believe in the power of growth. I do believe that we have seen ugly episodes of history before that have been rectified. I also believe in the heart of my people. I believe that the Palestinian people are people of resistance, they’re people of resilience, they’re people of courage. They’re people of benevolence and magnanimity, and they’re people who have been made to grow under the worst of circumstances. I don’t see, in the hearts of young Palestinians that have been tormented, I don’t see darkness. I see light. I see the ability to still laugh and find joy despite everything that’s happened. So I think that the urgency right now just has to be towards ensuring that they have a life, that they’re not being killed anymore.
You know who else faced that bigotry? Jews trying to escape the Holocaust. 1939, 300,000 Germans applied for refuge here in the United States. I think only about 10,000 were allowed in, and we also turned away ships of Jews that were seeking refuge here in the United States, on what basis? That they were national security threats and could not be trusted. They could not be taken in. That’s the same bigotry that’s driving this, and I want you to think about it from that perspective. How deeply offensive that is when you have millions of Palestinians in diaspora. Where have Palestinians caused trouble where they’ve gone? Everywhere Palestinians are, they have overcome significant hurdles to become scientists, and doctors, and to grow themselves, and to grow the places that they’re in. Where have Palestinians that have been displaced all over the world caused issues for people, right? It’s both racist and factually incorrect.
That’s not the right question that should be asked. The question that should be asked are, why are these people driven from their homes? Not, why won’t other people around them open their homes to them? So I’ll just share with you that, even on a personal level, it’s really interesting, because sometimes on Twitter or wherever it is, it’ll be like, “Go back home.” Right? “Why don’t you go back home?” And I’m sitting there thinking to myself like, “Sure. My parents were driven from their homes. Yeah, sure. I was born in this country as a consequence of bad policy.” Now, I embrace my complicated identity in that regard, and I hope to be productive as an American, but I am a Palestinian. And Palestinians in diaspora that have been fortunate enough to have the ability to build and to overcome circumstances should not be an excuse for eliminating the Palestinians that remain in their homes under that torment. So this bigotry is not new, unfortunately. Its manifestation is ugly, and we have to push back on it whenever it shows itself, no matter who it’s being spoken about.
I think that what makes the Palestinian plight deeply painful, and maybe where the analogy even doesn’t do justice, is that from the river to the sea is less than 500 times what the United States is in terms of land. It’s not that big of a piece of land. The original lie was, “A land without a people for a people without a land.” The problem was that there were people on that land that were forcibly removed. So I think that the sheer size, right? We’re talking about a tiny piece of land, and a lot of people that were removed forcibly from their land, and that continue to be brutalized under those miserable conditions.
So we say, “Abraham, peace be upon him.” We say, “Jesus, peace be upon him.” We say, “Moses, peace be upon him.” We say, “Muhammad, peace be upon him.” We believe that Moses came to confirm what came from Abraham. Jesus came to confirm what came from Moses. Muhammad came to confirm what came from Jesus. They upheld the same message. God did not change over time, nor did the centrality of his message of monotheism change over time, and so to us, it’s one beautiful house. There’s a saying from the prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, where he describes the house of prophethood, each prophet being a brick, and him simply being the last brick of a beautiful house. And so we love the prophets of God and we believe that they-
I think that it is particularly outrageous. So it’s complicated. Look, I expect more from people in the face of a genocide. We don’t have to agree on all the particulars, but we can agree that what is happening is morally outrageous. And so I think that I’ve had a few people that have reached out and said, “I want to say something, but I can’t.” And I’ve had to respond with, that’s not good enough. So I think that we have a problem, and instead of focusing on that problem, I’d like to focus on the more morally consistent voices across faiths that have risen to the moment rather than those that have failed.
So Islam is not violent. And I think that the history of Muslims also bears witness to that. The history of Islam is a history of contribution, is a history of building, is a history of medicine, and science, and math. And of course, Muslims have sometimes fallen short of Islamic standards in the past and in the present. But if you look at the overall history of Islam and the history of the Muslim community, that’s not the case. And when you look at the present Muslim community around the world, Muslims do not account for a greater proportion of violence than other faith communities. And again, the word terrorist is a functionless and meaningless word, because, to me, it’s no less violent if it’s commanded by a head of state or by a government than by a non-state actor. So Muslims do not account for a greater portion of violence now, nor have they accounted for a greater portion of violence in the past.
It was our direction of prayer, and it remained a fundamental part of our faith, fundamental holy sanctuary. There are three sanctuaries in Islam, Mecca, Medina, and Jerusalem, and Masjid al-Aqsa is precious to us. And so you can imagine then the pain of watching innocent Palestinian worshipers being stomped on by Israeli soldiers or skunk water being sprayed on people as they’re trying to walk in, or tear gassing taking place in the nights of Ramadan in that place.
The restrictions on people that live right next to it and that cannot pray in it due to the certain classification of Palestinian that they’ve been given or the age, because, generally speaking, if you’re younger, you’re not allowed to go to Masjid al- Aqsa, even if you live within the occupied territories. So it’s tough to watch such a sacred place with such an ugly occupation. But I’ll also say this, that the sanctity of a human being, the sanctity of just one person is greater than the sanctity of any place of worship to us. So the sanctity of one individual in Gaza or one individual in Jerusalem is greater to us than the sanctity of a place of worship. But it is all certainly interconnected.
I mean, they’re not shouting profanities. They’re not shouting words of emptiness or despair, but rather they are pouring out their hearts that are full of faith for the world to see. And I think that a lot of people have seen that and said, what is that? And so we’ve had multiple people come to the mosque. I’ve never seen more people become Muslim in my life, but not just that, but gain an appreciation for Islam. Like, what type of an engineering is there that allows for people to have that type of faith? So people are opening the Quran for the first time. People are asking questions about Islam in a way that shows that they’re inspired, even though they’re heartbroken by what they’re seeing.
So those are six articles of faith. So when you testify to the oneness of God and to the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, being the final messenger. That’s called the Shahada. You embrace the package of those articles of faith. That’s the implication. Then you learn the prayers, learn to fast in Ramadan. You give what’s known as Zakat, the mandatory charity, 2.5% of your retained earnings, and Hajj, which is the pilgrimage to Mecca, if you can. So that’s the growth part, the journey. Once a person takes the testimony, they then grow. It’s really interesting because we always have those people that convert to Islam, like a week before Ramadan or even a day before Ramadan. So you’re Muslim and you got to fast the next day, and that’s always a challenging experience for people, but a fulfilling experience for many people when they embrace Islam at that point. And again, I mean, it’s simple. And I think that the beauty of Islam to many people is in its simplicity, one God, one humanity, one body of prophets, and one community.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:36 – Oct 7
- 10:32 – Palestinian diaspora
- 14:47 – Wael Al-Dahdouh
- 29:39 – Violence
- 53:17 – Biden and Trump
- 1:06:28 – Ceasefire march
- 1:16:42 – Benjamin Netanyahu
- 1:23:44 – Houthi rebel attacks
- 1:25:21 – Hostages
- 1:31:41 – MLK Jr and Malcolm X
- 1:44:22 – Palestinian refugees
- 1:53:32 – Mohammad and Jesus
- 2:04:24 – Al-Aqsa Mosque
- 2:13:22 – Ramadan
- 2:18:14 – Hope for the future
Introduction
Omar Suleiman
You always know when you live in Gaza that it’s only a matter of time before the next bombs drop. You know if you’re in Gaza that you are waiting for your death. People dream about going out in the world and pursuing education. People dream about going out in the world and pursuing economic opportunity. In Gaza, your idea of opportunity is an opportunity to see the next year. That has been the case. And so, when we talk about this not existing in a vacuum, if people only hear about Gaza on October 7th, that is a major part of the problem. And that is, again, part of the problem of our ignorance and our apathy. Why is it that the plight of the people of Gaza is not brought up until an attack happens on Israel?
You always know when you live in Gaza that it’s only a matter of time before the next bombs drop. You know if you’re in Gaza that you are waiting for your death. People dream about going out in the world and pursuing education. People dream about going out in the world and pursuing economic opportunity. In Gaza, your idea of opportunity is an opportunity to see the next year. That has been the case. And so, when we talk about this not existing in a vacuum, if people only hear about Gaza on October 7th, that is a major part of the problem. And that is, again, part of the problem of our ignorance and our apathy. Why is it that the plight of the people of Gaza is not brought up until an attack happens on Israel?
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Imam Dr. Omar Suleiman, his second time on the podcast. He is a Palestinian American, a Muslim scholar, a civil rights leader, president of the Yaqeen Institute for Islamic Research, and is one of the most influential Muslims in the world. Our previous conversation was focused on Islam. This time the focus was on Gaza and Palestine.
The following is a conversation with Imam Dr. Omar Suleiman, his second time on the podcast. He is a Palestinian American, a Muslim scholar, a civil rights leader, president of the Yaqeen Institute for Islamic Research, and is one of the most influential Muslims in the world. Our previous conversation was focused on Islam. This time the focus was on Gaza and Palestine.
This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description.
Oct 7
And now, dear friends, here’s Omar Suleiman. What did you think, feel, and pray for in the days that followed October 7th?
Omar Suleiman
I think the first feeling was that there’s going to be a lot of death and destruction in Gaza as a result. We always kind of see this where one Israeli casualty leads to hundreds of Palestinian casualties, right? So, it’s a pretty familiar cycle in some ways where there are daily transgressions against Palestinians in the West Bank and in Gaza, the checkpoints, the aggression on Mosque Al-Aqsa, the settlements expanding, the stories of Palestinian death. And then you have rockets fired from Gaza, and that’s when the Western press catches up and starts to cover it. Israel responds with Hellfire missiles, white phosphorus bombs, and the casualties are wildly disproportionate. And so, I think that I wasn’t surprised. I prayed for the people that I knew were going to bear the brunt of this outbreak, but the outbreak was predictable.
I think the first feeling was that there’s going to be a lot of death and destruction in Gaza as a result. We always kind of see this where one Israeli casualty leads to hundreds of Palestinian casualties, right? So, it’s a pretty familiar cycle in some ways where there are daily transgressions against Palestinians in the West Bank and in Gaza, the checkpoints, the aggression on Mosque Al-Aqsa, the settlements expanding, the stories of Palestinian death. And then you have rockets fired from Gaza, and that’s when the Western press catches up and starts to cover it. Israel responds with Hellfire missiles, white phosphorus bombs, and the casualties are wildly disproportionate. And so, I think that I wasn’t surprised. I prayed for the people that I knew were going to bear the brunt of this outbreak, but the outbreak was predictable.
Lex Fridman
You wrote a statement on October 9th. I was hoping to read it, if it’s okay?
You wrote a statement on October 9th. I was hoping to read it, if it’s okay?
Omar Suleiman
Yeah, go ahead.
Yeah, go ahead.
Lex Fridman
Our Palestinian casualties are always your footnotes. The daily humiliation of occupation ignored, the aggression by settlers and soldiers alike on holy sites and souls, the annihilation of entire families that follows, the devastation of whatever scraps remain in the open air prison of Gaza, unsustainable and inhumane. So, if you’re waking up to a sudden interest in the region and want to know what’s been happening, dig a bit deeper than two weeks and try to read beyond the headlines of a media that has been dehumanizing us for decades.
Our Palestinian casualties are always your footnotes. The daily humiliation of occupation ignored, the aggression by settlers and soldiers alike on holy sites and souls, the annihilation of entire families that follows, the devastation of whatever scraps remain in the open air prison of Gaza, unsustainable and inhumane. So, if you’re waking up to a sudden interest in the region and want to know what’s been happening, dig a bit deeper than two weeks and try to read beyond the headlines of a media that has been dehumanizing us for decades.
Omar Suleiman
Again, this was not surprising. This was very predictable. If you’ve been watching what’s been unfolding before October 7th, 2021, Human Rights Watch puts out the report, Threshold reached, Israel is an apartheid state. Amnesty International 2022, the crime of apartheid, showing how all of the legal determinations of apartheid have been reached, the occupations only getting more aggressive.
Again, this was not surprising. This was very predictable. If you’ve been watching what’s been unfolding before October 7th, 2021, Human Rights Watch puts out the report, Threshold reached, Israel is an apartheid state. Amnesty International 2022, the crime of apartheid, showing how all of the legal determinations of apartheid have been reached, the occupations only getting more aggressive.
Shireen Abu Akleh, a Palestinian American journalist, is shot dead in 2022 in front of the world. The United States says initially that if it is shown that Israel was complicit or that Israel carried out the execution, then there will be consequences. Of course, once it was shown that Israel was indeed responsible for the bullet that killed Shireen Abu Akleh, the United States did absolutely nothing. Shireen’s funeral was attacked. The pallbearers were beaten. Her casket almost fell. And again, the world is watching.
The aggression against worshipers in Al-Aqsa is getting worse. You have the Flag March, the Jerusalem Flag March where extremist settlers are let loose and wild on Palestinians by the thousands, chanting things like, “Muhammad is dead. We’re going to murder you, Arabs.” All with the protection of the state with Israeli soldiers. And throughout this time, it’s like something bad is going to happen.
And then 2023 comes along. You had 13,000 settler units in 2023. A plan of 13,000 settler units, the most in the history of the occupation, the most racist and extremist government, Israeli government, that you have ever had. And people don’t realize that in 2023 alone, over 600 Palestinians had already been killed. It just doesn’t make Western headlines. And so, if you wonder why the American public sees this so much differently than the rest of the world, it’s because American media shows the American public something so much different than what the rest of the world has shown. And so, this was a pressure cooker. This was going to explode. It is extremely predictable. You’ve given people absolutely no hope. And so, I think that as we’re watching that, it’s important for us to actually interrogate the ignorance that people have of the Palestinian plight, the ignorance of the root causes of this violence, the ignorance of the occupation. And also, ask yourselves, why is it that Israel can violate every single international law on the books, have all these determinations, and the United States keeps on issuing these inconsequential statements while also, at the same time, funding these aggressions?
So, it’s like, “Stop the settler violence.” The United States will issue statement after statements, “Stop the settler violence. Stop the incursions on Mosque Al-Aqsa. Stop violating the people in Jerusalem. Stop trying to wipe out the Palestinian people. Stop openly saying that there is no two-state solution, that we will never allow a Palestinian state to be established.” But at the same time, “Here’s your $3 billion check.” And if the United Nations issues any sort of resolution against Israel, or if any international body tries to hold Israel accountable, the United States stands in the way of any accountability. It’s important for us to ask why?
And so, I always tell people, “Read beyond the headlines.” Even now with the backdrop of a genocide, over 30,000 people have been killed. If you open the front page of most American mainstream sites, you will see stories about the hostages, the Israeli hostages. You will see stories about October 7th, but October 8th is missing. October 9th is missing. October 10th is missing. A hundred days of genocide are missing. And you’ll barely have a story that shows up every once in a while that is still very much so controlled by the Israeli propaganda machine, because while Israel kills Palestinian journalists, it also makes sure that American journalists are only able to tell a certain story. They’re only able to see Gaza from a certain perspective. They’re only able to speak about Gaza from a certain perspective.
And this is well-documented, that they have to review their media tapes with Israel before they can publicize them. And so, this is state propaganda at this point. The mainstream media and the United States government are in lockstep, telling a very skewed story. And that is leading to a greater sense of frustration. And I think the American public has been wronged as well by not knowing what’s happening.
Lex Fridman
You mentioned settlements. So, to you, this is bigger than Gaza. It is the West Bank. It is the Palestinian people broadly.
You mentioned settlements. So, to you, this is bigger than Gaza. It is the West Bank. It is the Palestinian people broadly.
Omar Suleiman
Absolutely. You can’t disconnect Gaza from Palestine. You can’t disconnect the West Bank from Palestine. You can’t disconnect Jerusalem from Palestine. And you can’t disconnect the very human story from the political plight.
Absolutely. You can’t disconnect Gaza from Palestine. You can’t disconnect the West Bank from Palestine. You can’t disconnect Jerusalem from Palestine. And you can’t disconnect the very human story from the political plight.
You interviewed Mohammed El-Kurd, met him. What did the world do when it saw the images of the Kurd household being taken over by a guy from Brooklyn or Long Island who just shows up and lays claim to their home? What did the world do when American settlers suddenly decided they could walk into historic Palestinian homes and throw people out of their homes? What did the world do? And so, yes, this is very much so connected to the broader issue of Palestinian existence.
If you realize here, we are erased in peace and we are erased in war. In peace, it’s the Abraham Accords, agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors, which is supposedly to solve the Palestinian problem. The Palestinians are absent from their own fate, from discussions about their own fate. In war, it’s the Israel-Hamas war. It’s Israel and Gaza. Where are the Palestinian people? The millions of Palestinian people that have either been removed from their land or are being tormented on their land, where are they in this discussion?
Palestinian diaspora
Lex Fridman
What are the Palestinians in the diaspora feeling?
What are the Palestinians in the diaspora feeling?
Omar Suleiman
I think deeply frustrated, a great sense of anger, sadness. Every single Palestinian right now knows someone that’s been killed. Every single Palestinian is a part of a story of displacement or destruction. Every single Palestinian has a relative that’s either missing a limb or a loved one. Every single Palestinian in the world is traumatized by this. And in some ways, being outside of Palestine, being away from it all hurts even more because you see your people being killed, and starved, and brutalized, and slaughtered, and you can’t do anything about it. And the people around you are justifying that slaughter.
I think deeply frustrated, a great sense of anger, sadness. Every single Palestinian right now knows someone that’s been killed. Every single Palestinian is a part of a story of displacement or destruction. Every single Palestinian has a relative that’s either missing a limb or a loved one. Every single Palestinian in the world is traumatized by this. And in some ways, being outside of Palestine, being away from it all hurts even more because you see your people being killed, and starved, and brutalized, and slaughtered, and you can’t do anything about it. And the people around you are justifying that slaughter.
If you turn on a TV or if you open a mainstream news site, these sites are justifying your slaughter and people are being killed over there because they look like me, because they’re Palestinian like I’m Palestinian. And so, we’re watching this in diaspora with agony. We can’t go, we can’t heal our loved ones. We can’t comfort the people that are there. I recently spoke to a doctor who’s lost 75 relatives, 75 relatives in Gaza, and he’s a medical doctor. And all he wants to do is get in there and just use his medical expertise to help his people and he can’t.
And so, we’re watching it from afar, but our hearts are there. They are in the buildings that are being destroyed. They’re in the hospitals that are being bombed. They are there and they’re with the people.
Lex Fridman
You’re somebody who’s always rushed into the midst of a crisis. So, what does it feel like on a personal level to not be able to do that here, to go to Gaza to help?
You’re somebody who’s always rushed into the midst of a crisis. So, what does it feel like on a personal level to not be able to do that here, to go to Gaza to help?
Omar Suleiman
Yeah, it’s really hard. I mean, when any group of people are killed, my instinct, and I think a lot of people is to go there to help, whether it’s a natural disaster or especially after an incident of terror, wherever it is. It’s rush there and do the best that you can to help people get through it. So, it’s been extremely hard to watch this from afar and feel like I can’t do anything about it. And so, that’s why, instead, I think that most of us are driven to continue to be the voice of the voiceless.
Yeah, it’s really hard. I mean, when any group of people are killed, my instinct, and I think a lot of people is to go there to help, whether it’s a natural disaster or especially after an incident of terror, wherever it is. It’s rush there and do the best that you can to help people get through it. So, it’s been extremely hard to watch this from afar and feel like I can’t do anything about it. And so, that’s why, instead, I think that most of us are driven to continue to be the voice of the voiceless.
I always say that if they’ve made them faceless, they can’t make us voiceless. They have reduced our casualties in Palestine to a number. The number is hundreds a day, over 30,000 people. We’re averaging 10,000 people a month. The fact that they’ve been turned into faceless numbers with no stories, with no humanity, makes it that much more important for us to tell their stories here. And to remind the world that you’ve lost your humanity if you can watch this unfold and not even have the decency to call for a ceasefire. I mean, that’s where we’ve reached. That’s how low it is right now. Calling for a ceasefire has now become radical.
So, we have to remind the world that if you’re okay with the demolition of an entire town, or a city, or whatever it is that you want to call Gaza because it wasn’t always the Gaza Strip, but if you’re okay with this and you’re okay with this casualty count every single day, it’s not just them who are being killed; it’s your hearts that are dying. And I think that when I look back to Dr. Martin Luther King Jr, and I mentioned this, he wrote about Vietnam. He said that if America was to succumb to its spiritual death, the autopsy would read Vietnam. I would say that it would read Gaza now.
Wael Al-Dahdouh
Lex Fridman
Speaking of the people, the faces, the voices, one of the people you’ve talked about, you’ve posted about, you’ve written about is Wael Al-Dahdouh, him being hospitalized. He’s a Palestinian journalist and the bureau chief of Al Jazeera in Gaza City. What can you tell me about this man?
Speaking of the people, the faces, the voices, one of the people you’ve talked about, you’ve posted about, you’ve written about is Wael Al-Dahdouh, him being hospitalized. He’s a Palestinian journalist and the bureau chief of Al Jazeera in Gaza City. What can you tell me about this man?
Omar Suleiman
If Wael Al-Dahdouh wasn’t Palestinian, he’d be on the cover of Time Magazine right now. He would be the most celebrated journalist in the world. Wael Al-Dahdouh is from Gaza. He has been in Israeli prisons. He has been under Israeli airstrikes. He has seen the worst of the occupation before. He’s seen the worst of the genocide while on TV. I mean, and this is insane when you think about it. We have over a hundred journalists now, that’s more than any conflict in history, that have been killed. And there is sufficient evidence by international watchdogs that this is intentional. That journalists have been killed intentionally, but then their families.
If Wael Al-Dahdouh wasn’t Palestinian, he’d be on the cover of Time Magazine right now. He would be the most celebrated journalist in the world. Wael Al-Dahdouh is from Gaza. He has been in Israeli prisons. He has been under Israeli airstrikes. He has seen the worst of the occupation before. He’s seen the worst of the genocide while on TV. I mean, and this is insane when you think about it. We have over a hundred journalists now, that’s more than any conflict in history, that have been killed. And there is sufficient evidence by international watchdogs that this is intentional. That journalists have been killed intentionally, but then their families.
Wael was reporting on TV when an airstrike hits his wife, two kids and a grandchild. He goes to the scene. And he said this, “You never expect as a journalist to be the subject of the story.” Suddenly, the camera’s on him mourning over his dead wife and kids and grandkid, and he even says it in Arabic. He says, “They’re taking it out on our children. They’re taking it out on our children.” I’ve heard this from multiple people that have had relatives targeted that, “I wish it was me instead.” He gets back on camera the same day because he feels a responsibility to continue to cover the lives of the people of Gaza. He understands that his story, as devastating as it is, is not unique in regards to the people of Gaza, that there are many people whose families have been killed in airstrikes. All two million people have been traumatized in some way. And so, he gets back on camera, tells the story again, and then he is targeted himself, his arm struck. His cameraman, Samer Abudaqa, dies in front of him. He bleeds out. Wael watches him bleed out for hours. And while any aid workers try to reach them in the building that they were in, snipers would shoot all of those that were rushing to Samer.
So, he watches his cameraman and one of his best friends bleed out to death. Wael goes to the hospital. His arm is wrapped up, gets treatment. He’s back on camera the next day. A few weeks later, another child is killed again with his friend in a car. So, this was a targeted airstrike. His son is driving. And his son and his best friend are hit in an airstrike. Wael leads the funeral prayer, is back on camera again, and speaks with such dignity, with such compassion. One of the things that always gets to me, as a Palestinian and as a Muslim too, is that we are portrayed to be these beasts and savages. Tell me a man that would be put through what Wael was put through and still stand on that pulpit and in front of the world with such dignity, with such grace. He continues to tell the story. Wael has become a hero to many of us, and he would be a hero in a world that wasn’t anti-Palestinian. And unfortunately, Wael has not only lost his family, he’s not only lost much of his own existence, but Wael is part of the greater story of erasure. So, even though he’s telling the story of the people of Gaza and he is the story of the people of Gaza, most people will never learn about Wael Al-Dahdouh.
Lex Fridman
You have posted videos and written about what is happening in Gaza since October 7th. What has been happening there, the individual stories and the broader impact on the two million people there?
You have posted videos and written about what is happening in Gaza since October 7th. What has been happening there, the individual stories and the broader impact on the two million people there?
Omar Suleiman
Gaza has been described as the world’s largest open air prison, unemployment, blockaded from all directions, no airport, regular added restrictions placed even on their ability to fish. So, every aspect of Gazan life has been under occupation. I would argue that it’s an injustice to even call it an open air prison because inmates are not bombed in prisons routinely by the most sophisticated weapons in the world. Regular bombardment of Gaza, every single person in Gaza has lived through multiple rounds of bombardment. It is deeply distressing.
Gaza has been described as the world’s largest open air prison, unemployment, blockaded from all directions, no airport, regular added restrictions placed even on their ability to fish. So, every aspect of Gazan life has been under occupation. I would argue that it’s an injustice to even call it an open air prison because inmates are not bombed in prisons routinely by the most sophisticated weapons in the world. Regular bombardment of Gaza, every single person in Gaza has lived through multiple rounds of bombardment. It is deeply distressing.
I remember in 2021, there was an image that I will never forget of children having to go back to school after the bombardment of 2021. And next to them, they would have the empty chairs and the posters of the child that used to sit in that chair. I think what encapsulates it most for me, an image that I grew up with was the image of Muhammad al-Durrah, who was in his father’s lap over 20 years ago, and his father was begging for Israel to spare his child. And Muhammad was murdered in his lap. And you know what happened these last rounds? His other kids were murdered. So, Muhammad’s brothers were murdered and his father’s been on the run.
Every single person in Gaza has witnessed multiple wars, has witnessed the greatest suffocation of occupation, has even had their diets restricted, and has suffered under Israel state policy, which is called mowing the lawn. And everyone should look this up. This is what Israeli ministers refer to as routine bombardment of Gaza, mowing the lawn, which shows you that before they called us animals, they considered us insects. And unfortunately, the casualty counts get higher and higher every time, and people become more and more desperate, more and more helpless.
Gaza has been, unfortunately, the worst manifestation of anti-Palestinian bigotry. I mean, 60% of the population is a refugee population. What that means, and people do need to understand this, is that people move to Gaza from other parts of occupied territory to find refuge and were practically living on top of each other. There are people that are in the Gaza Strip that know that they had homes right beyond that apartheid wall and those homes were stolen from them, and they can’t even enter that territory anymore.
And they know that on the other side of that wall, there’s life. On the other side of that wall, there’s opportunity. On the other side of that wall, you have a passport, you have an airport, you have the ability to travel, you have the ability to export and import, you can dream. But behind that wall, you are to live until the next airstrike. You are to live until Israel mows the lawn again and hope that you’re not part of the grass. That’s what Gaza has been all of these years.
Lex Fridman
So, pragmatically and psychologically, it’s very difficult to flourish when you’re just waiting for more bombardment.
So, pragmatically and psychologically, it’s very difficult to flourish when you’re just waiting for more bombardment.
Omar Suleiman
Because you know that it’s around the corner. You always know when you live in Gaza that it’s only a matter of time before the next bombs drop. You know if you’re in Gaza that you are waiting for your death. People dream about going out in the world and pursuing education. People dream about going out in the world and pursuing economic opportunity. In Gaza, your idea of opportunity is an opportunity to see the next year. That has been the case. And so, when we talk about this not existing in a vacuum, if people only hear about Gaza on October 7th, that is a major part of the problem. And that is, again, part of the problem of our ignorance and our apathy. Why is it that the plight of the people of Gaza is not brought up until an attack happens on Israel?
Because you know that it’s around the corner. You always know when you live in Gaza that it’s only a matter of time before the next bombs drop. You know if you’re in Gaza that you are waiting for your death. People dream about going out in the world and pursuing education. People dream about going out in the world and pursuing economic opportunity. In Gaza, your idea of opportunity is an opportunity to see the next year. That has been the case. And so, when we talk about this not existing in a vacuum, if people only hear about Gaza on October 7th, that is a major part of the problem. And that is, again, part of the problem of our ignorance and our apathy. Why is it that the plight of the people of Gaza is not brought up until an attack happens on Israel?
Lex Fridman
I’ve gotten a chance to witness a destroyed school in Ukraine. That’s something that is really difficult to see.
I’ve gotten a chance to witness a destroyed school in Ukraine. That’s something that is really difficult to see.
Omar Suleiman
You have over a hundred destroyed mosques. Every university in Gaza has been demolished. We’re seeing TikTok videos of Israeli soldiers laughing and singing as they press a button. And we see the demolition of every single university in Gaza. Schools have been reduced to rubble. There’s a cultural genocide as well.
You have over a hundred destroyed mosques. Every university in Gaza has been demolished. We’re seeing TikTok videos of Israeli soldiers laughing and singing as they press a button. And we see the demolition of every single university in Gaza. Schools have been reduced to rubble. There’s a cultural genocide as well.
I want you to think about what you saw in Ukraine. Look, imagine coming back to school in Gaza in some destroyed building. You’re missing legs. You’re missing arms. You have white phosphorus burns. Have you ever seen what white phosphorus does to a person? There’s a reason why it’s a war crime. You have white phosphorus burns. Your mom’s dead. Your dad’s dead. All of your uncles and aunts are dead. All of your siblings are dead. Somehow you got pulled out of the rubble.
In my own family, my father’s in-laws, my father remarried after my mother passed away and they’re in Gaza, all of them were killed in an airstrike, except for an elderly aunt who somehow made it out of the rubble a day later. If you’re a child that’s been pulled out of the rubble, what are you going to grow up with? I mean, what are you supposed to feel? What are you supposed to think? And then you have racist commentators that say, “They could have turned that into a Singapore. The Palestinians are the authors of their own destruction, because if they wanted to, they could have turned this into a place of prosperity, but they keep on bringing destruction upon themselves.”
So, at the root of this is a bigotry. And again, this idea that Palestinians are savages, they’re animals, and the only way to deal with them is to continuously mow the lawn while simultaneously expanding the occupation and erasing anything that was ever called Palestine and any human being that was ever called the Palestinian.
Lex Fridman
So, those kids growing up in Gaza now, to you, they have almost no choice but to have hatred for Israel?
So, those kids growing up in Gaza now, to you, they have almost no choice but to have hatred for Israel?
Omar Suleiman
It’s human. I mean, look, any child that is under that type of oppression is going to hate their oppressor. I don’t care who you are. I don’t care what you are. But here’s my problem with how that gets brought up. You’re talking about the future of the security of Israel. Even some people that speak about it seemingly from a place of being well-meaning, that say the only way that Israel can have its security is to stop killing Palestinians. And so, the future of Israel depends upon Palestinians not hating Israel so much. And so, we’ve got to stop tormenting these people so that they don’t grow up to want to torment us.
It’s human. I mean, look, any child that is under that type of oppression is going to hate their oppressor. I don’t care who you are. I don’t care what you are. But here’s my problem with how that gets brought up. You’re talking about the future of the security of Israel. Even some people that speak about it seemingly from a place of being well-meaning, that say the only way that Israel can have its security is to stop killing Palestinians. And so, the future of Israel depends upon Palestinians not hating Israel so much. And so, we’ve got to stop tormenting these people so that they don’t grow up to want to torment us.
You’ve already decided then whose life is worth more than the other. And so, instead of talking about the future of Israeli lives, why don’t you talk about the present of Palestinian lives? Instead of talking about whether or not your state will be secure in the future, talk to me about why you’re killing children now. Two thirds of the 30,000 civilians are women and children. And so, we can’t talk about what these children are going to grow up with. We should talk about whether or not these children are going to grow up in the first place. And that should be what dominates our conscience right now, and what drives our policies, and what drives our emotions right now.
Lex Fridman
When I had a conversation with Elon Musk, he suggested that what Israel should do is conspicuous acts of kindness. So, do as much positive things in Gaza as possible on a basic individual human level and at a policy level at every level. What do you think about that?
When I had a conversation with Elon Musk, he suggested that what Israel should do is conspicuous acts of kindness. So, do as much positive things in Gaza as possible on a basic individual human level and at a policy level at every level. What do you think about that?
Omar Suleiman
You don’t pass out candy in a concentration camp, you and the occupation. And so, there has to be a solution that is beyond merely acts of kindness. At the end of the day, if you’re occupying a people, you have to remove that occupation. Apartheid is not dealt with by acts of kindness on the part of the occupying power. Apartheid is dealt with by ending apartheid. And so, there has to be a level of accountability. It’s not just acts of kindness. It’s not just treating the people with more dignity. It’s giving them the ability to pursue their own dignity.
You don’t pass out candy in a concentration camp, you and the occupation. And so, there has to be a solution that is beyond merely acts of kindness. At the end of the day, if you’re occupying a people, you have to remove that occupation. Apartheid is not dealt with by acts of kindness on the part of the occupying power. Apartheid is dealt with by ending apartheid. And so, there has to be a level of accountability. It’s not just acts of kindness. It’s not just treating the people with more dignity. It’s giving them the ability to pursue their own dignity.
There’s a reason why it’s called Palestinian self-determination. The United States likes to use it in all of its inconsequential statements, that we need Palestinian self-determination too. But the United States also voted against 138 states in the United Nations to allow for Palestinian self-determination. Self-determination means I get to pursue my own course of worth. I get to pursue my own happiness. I don’t have to depend on the benevolence of my occupier and when my occupier-
Omar Suleiman
To depend on the benevolence of my occupier, and when my occupier feels like throwing me a few more crumbs, it has to end. There has to be a point now where the world says this is not sustainable. It’s not just about ending the present genocide. A ceasefire is the bare minimum. I think any decent human being would be calling for a ceasefire right now, but at some point you cease occupation, you cease apartheid because what led to the ability of Israel to carry out a genocide without any accountability was that the global arena has permitted it to do so, largely due to American obstruction of justice.
To depend on the benevolence of my occupier, and when my occupier feels like throwing me a few more crumbs, it has to end. There has to be a point now where the world says this is not sustainable. It’s not just about ending the present genocide. A ceasefire is the bare minimum. I think any decent human being would be calling for a ceasefire right now, but at some point you cease occupation, you cease apartheid because what led to the ability of Israel to carry out a genocide without any accountability was that the global arena has permitted it to do so, largely due to American obstruction of justice.
Violence
Lex Fridman
Is violence an effective method of resistance?
Is violence an effective method of resistance?
Omar Suleiman
So, the framework that I would propose is that Dr. King mentioned that peace is not the absence of violence, it’s the presence of justice. And so, occupation and apartheid are violent even in their most benevolent manifestations. The default of occupation is that it is unjustified. The default of apartheid is that it is unjustified, and it must be dealt with. The default of resistance to occupation and apartheid is that it is justified, but there can be transgressions even in resisting occupation and apartheid, right? And I come to this from an Islamic perspective. My moral framework is Islam. The prophet Muhammad, peace be upon Him, was outraged when he saw a woman or a child that was dead from the other side, the side of his persecutor. And so, yes, we have a saying as Muslims that they are not our teachers. Our oppressors are not our teachers, but the concept of resistance to occupation, it is morally justified. It is justified by international law. Any occupied people have the right to defend themselves.
So, the framework that I would propose is that Dr. King mentioned that peace is not the absence of violence, it’s the presence of justice. And so, occupation and apartheid are violent even in their most benevolent manifestations. The default of occupation is that it is unjustified. The default of apartheid is that it is unjustified, and it must be dealt with. The default of resistance to occupation and apartheid is that it is justified, but there can be transgressions even in resisting occupation and apartheid, right? And I come to this from an Islamic perspective. My moral framework is Islam. The prophet Muhammad, peace be upon Him, was outraged when he saw a woman or a child that was dead from the other side, the side of his persecutor. And so, yes, we have a saying as Muslims that they are not our teachers. Our oppressors are not our teachers, but the concept of resistance to occupation, it is morally justified. It is justified by international law. Any occupied people have the right to defend themselves.
We talk about Israel’s right to defend itself. Israel is the occupier. Any occupied people by international law have the right to defend themselves, and any occupation is unjustified and illegal. And so, that’s where I start from. That’s the point that I come to this with. I think that the problem is that the Palestinians are told, “Find better ways to resist,” and then they are demonized when they try to find any other way to resist. If you go back a few years ago, you had the Great Return March. People in Gaza marched to the wall in what was one of the most inspiring protests or demonstrations that I had ever seen, March to the Wall, nonviolent protest, and snipers took out their legs. AP actually documented that Israeli snipers had knee counts, where you had an Israeli soldier that would say, “I took out 45 knees.” They actually had a register, a scroll of knee counts. And so, you have all these kids in Gaza walking around without legs now because they were targeted by snipers when they marched to the wall.
We’re told to find methods of nonviolent resistance, but when we boycott, when we launch boycotts around the world, in response to this transgression, in response to this ongoing oppression that the world powers have shown either the inability or the unwillingness to reign in, we’re told that that’s antisemitic, even though it is based on the South African method of bringing an end to the apartheid regime there. So, don’t respond with violence. Don’t respond nonviolently. Don’t protest. Don’t try to use people power in the face of global impotence at the political level.
Instead, let’s just keep talking about the two-state solution. And while talking about the two-state solution, if you were to look at a map under every single Israeli regime, conservative or liberal, whatever it is, the settlements have expanded. More Palestinian land has disappeared, more Palestinians have been dispossessed, more Palestinians have been killed. And so, we have these little pieces of land that keep on shrinking, and Jerusalem keeps disappearing, and there’s aggression whether Palestinians are resisting or not. But then we’re told, “Why can’t you people just pursue peace? Why can’t you just believe in a better way?”
All along, we’re hearing Israeli ministers become far more radical and open about their intentions to wipe us off the face of the earth. And that is actually their policy. It’s not just slogans. It’s not fringe elements. Actual Israeli ministers starting from the prime Minister himself, who has executed a policy of the removal of all Palestinian lands and Palestinian lives. And then we’re told, “Peace, peace, peace, peace.” And it is awfully ugly when you use the language of peace to suffocate the work of justice.
Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., one of his early sermons was something along the lines of, “When Peace Is Obnoxious,” when peace is obnoxious. It was in the 1950s around the Montgomery Bus Boycott, and he talked about how this obsession with the language of peace, is usually used to try to keep people in status quo and make them complacent with their miserable situation. That has been the story of the Palestinian people, that they’ve been told that if you do things differently, then you will find peace. But everything the Palestinians have tried, inside and outside, has been met with repression, the most violent forms of it there in Gaza and beyond. And so look, I start from the place of wanting to see peace. I want to see a situation in which no innocent people lose their lives, but we have to analyze the situation with some justice, with some fairness. What would any group of people do in this situation? That doesn’t mean that you hope for hell. That means that you analyze the existing circumstances of hell, which was life in Gaza even before October 7th.
Lex Fridman
That said, you did talk about [inaudible 00:35:37] and dignity, and you mentioned transgressions, so there is places where violence can go too far?
That said, you did talk about [inaudible 00:35:37] and dignity, and you mentioned transgressions, so there is places where violence can go too far?
Omar Suleiman
Absolutely. So violence, again, the point is that you ask yourself why we’ve been silent about the violence all of this time. And you know what? When people say, “Well, what about this? Well, what about that?” My response is this. What I would love to see is effective international bodies of justice, being able to reign in any party that has committed an act of aggression or committed an act of injustice and hold them accountable. Any reasonable human being would say, “Yeah, you know what? There should be effective international bodies that can reign in parties that can’t be reigned in domestically, that could stop the violence. That could assign blame properly, and then have methods of accountability.” The problem is that Israel has been made invincible in the international arena because of the United States. And then we wonder why there’s such a rise in global anti-American sentiment.
Absolutely. So violence, again, the point is that you ask yourself why we’ve been silent about the violence all of this time. And you know what? When people say, “Well, what about this? Well, what about that?” My response is this. What I would love to see is effective international bodies of justice, being able to reign in any party that has committed an act of aggression or committed an act of injustice and hold them accountable. Any reasonable human being would say, “Yeah, you know what? There should be effective international bodies that can reign in parties that can’t be reigned in domestically, that could stop the violence. That could assign blame properly, and then have methods of accountability.” The problem is that Israel has been made invincible in the international arena because of the United States. And then we wonder why there’s such a rise in global anti-American sentiment.
It’s not because of American freedom. It’s because America is directly participating. The United States government is directly participating in the worst genocide that we have ever seen in our lives, playing out on screen, on social media, and we can’t do anything about it. So, I think that the point is that we need those international bodies. We need methods of effective accountability, and I would love to see blame properly assigned, and anyone that kills any innocent human being, taken to account, anyone that is guilty of a war crime, taken to account. We have to ask ourselves, why is it that Israel has violated over 63 United Nations resolutions, has expanded its occupation, has killed over 600 Palestinians before October 7th? Why is it that Israel cannot be held accountable? And so when you talk about words that get thrown around, that are used to justify violence against more innocent people, when I’m asked about terrorism, is it only terrorism if it’s a non-state actor, if someone’s sitting inside a room of suits, and can press a button and terrorize thousands of people and murder innocent people with no consequences, how is that not terrorism?
So, if terrorism is only to be assigned to non-state actors, then it’s a word without function. In fact, it’s a word that justifies more terror that is then reigned upon innocent populations. We have to have moral consistency. Children should not be killed. Non-combatant should not be targeted. We can all agree upon that. Why aren’t there proper investigative bodies, and then, proper international bodies of accountability then, that can execute their findings in a way that makes the world a better place. In a way that actually brings about more peace? And so, I think this is where we’re at right now, and this is the frustration, and this is the place that the Palestinians have been left.
Lex Fridman
So, to you, violence becomes terrorism when women and children, non-combatants, are killed, no matter who is doing the killing?
So, to you, violence becomes terrorism when women and children, non-combatants, are killed, no matter who is doing the killing?
Omar Suleiman
Absolutely. Absolutely.
Absolutely. Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
In America, for you, for other Palestinians, other Muslims in your community, what has all of this been like?
In America, for you, for other Palestinians, other Muslims in your community, what has all of this been like?
Omar Suleiman
It feels like there is a return to some of the days after 911, the dehumanization, the feeling of complete disregard for our humanity at the level of government, at the level of media. Feeling of an increase in surveillance, the feeling in an increase in bigotry. People are losing their jobs, and people are being berated on campuses, in grocery stores, and people are being killed. I went to the funeral of a 6-year-old boy who was killed directly due to anti-Palestinian propaganda. And so I think that a lot of us are feeling a return to that, but we also refuse to be cornered into a position where we are told to perpetually condemn acts of violence and not speak about the violence that’s committed against us here or abroad.
It feels like there is a return to some of the days after 911, the dehumanization, the feeling of complete disregard for our humanity at the level of government, at the level of media. Feeling of an increase in surveillance, the feeling in an increase in bigotry. People are losing their jobs, and people are being berated on campuses, in grocery stores, and people are being killed. I went to the funeral of a 6-year-old boy who was killed directly due to anti-Palestinian propaganda. And so I think that a lot of us are feeling a return to that, but we also refuse to be cornered into a position where we are told to perpetually condemn acts of violence and not speak about the violence that’s committed against us here or abroad.
Lex Fridman
Can you tell the story of this boy, Wadea Al-Fayoume? He’s a 6-year-old Palestinian-American boy who was stabbed 26 times in his home in Plainfield Township, Illinois. It was found to be a hate crime motivated by Islamophobia, and the attacker said, “You, Muslims, must die.”
Can you tell the story of this boy, Wadea Al-Fayoume? He’s a 6-year-old Palestinian-American boy who was stabbed 26 times in his home in Plainfield Township, Illinois. It was found to be a hate crime motivated by Islamophobia, and the attacker said, “You, Muslims, must die.”
Omar Suleiman
So, before Wadea was killed, Wadea was killed on a Saturday. It was the immediate Saturday after October 7th. I remember on Friday, media starts to reach out to every Imam in the country, every Muslim leader in the country, and say, “What are you going to do about this global day of Jihad? What are you going to do about the global day of Jihad?” It’s like, “What are you talking about?” It’s like, “Well, Hamas has called for a global day of Jihad, so how are you going to stop Muslims from attacking people?” Right? So, it’s Friday, and I’m like, “Well, this is the first I’m hearing from you.”
So, before Wadea was killed, Wadea was killed on a Saturday. It was the immediate Saturday after October 7th. I remember on Friday, media starts to reach out to every Imam in the country, every Muslim leader in the country, and say, “What are you going to do about this global day of Jihad? What are you going to do about the global day of Jihad?” It’s like, “What are you talking about?” It’s like, “Well, Hamas has called for a global day of Jihad, so how are you going to stop Muslims from attacking people?” Right? So, it’s Friday, and I’m like, “Well, this is the first I’m hearing from you.”
And I remember responding to a local reporter, most people I just ignored. I responded to a local reporter. I said, “I’ve got people in my community that have already lost 10, 15 relatives at that point. Now, it’s 20, 30, and you haven’t said a word, and now you’re reaching out to me about the potential violence of Muslims in America. This is great. This is just like 911.” What are you going to do to restrain, you angry Muslims, from responding to what’s happening overseas, and responding to the call of a global day of Jihad?
Guess what? That night, this man takes out a military knife and attacks a six-year-old boy, a six-year-old Palestinian boy. By the way, it gets worse the more details that you know. And I recently had a chance to go and speak to his mom because she was in the hospital when I was there for the funeral, so I had a chance to visit her not too long ago.
Lex Fridman
And she was attacked, also.
And she was attacked, also.
Omar Suleiman
She was attacked first. It was actually their landlord. So Hanaan, the mother, was at home with Wadea, 6-year-old boy. Landlord comes in, and with absolutely no emotion, just charges at her, starts with her. She was able to fight him off. Stabbed her initially seven or eight times with a military grade knife. She fought him off, escaped to call 911. And while she is calling 911, she hears Wadea. Wadea ran up to the man, calling him Uncle Joe because the landlord prior to that, had been kind to them, used to give Wadea toys. Wadea had an infectious, beautiful smile. Every picture you see of that kid, beautiful, beautiful, beautiful smile. And so, Wadea runs up to him, says, “Uncle Joe.” He runs up to him to give him a hug, even though he’s carrying a military grade knife with blood on it, because Wadea doesn’t believe that harm can come to him from that man. And Hanaan didn’t think that he would do anything to her kid, even in that fit of rage. The last thing that she says she heard was, “Oh, no,” Wadea the says, “Oh, no.” And then, he starts to stab him 26 times, says, “You, Muslims, must die.”
She was attacked first. It was actually their landlord. So Hanaan, the mother, was at home with Wadea, 6-year-old boy. Landlord comes in, and with absolutely no emotion, just charges at her, starts with her. She was able to fight him off. Stabbed her initially seven or eight times with a military grade knife. She fought him off, escaped to call 911. And while she is calling 911, she hears Wadea. Wadea ran up to the man, calling him Uncle Joe because the landlord prior to that, had been kind to them, used to give Wadea toys. Wadea had an infectious, beautiful smile. Every picture you see of that kid, beautiful, beautiful, beautiful smile. And so, Wadea runs up to him, says, “Uncle Joe.” He runs up to him to give him a hug, even though he’s carrying a military grade knife with blood on it, because Wadea doesn’t believe that harm can come to him from that man. And Hanaan didn’t think that he would do anything to her kid, even in that fit of rage. The last thing that she says she heard was, “Oh, no,” Wadea the says, “Oh, no.” And then, he starts to stab him 26 times, says, “You, Muslims, must die.”
Usually, in a scene like that, police are hesitant to classify something as a hate crime. It was classified as a hate crime the very same day. The thing is that, who’s complicit in that hate crime? What filled that man’s head for him to believe that he was doing an act of good by murdering a 6-year-old Palestinian boy? And in reality, uncle Joe was motivated by President Joe Biden, who repeated a debunked report that there were 40 beheaded Israeli babies. And he said, “I saw 40 beheaded Israeli babies.” The White House walked it back afterwards in a statement that no one reads because it was factually false. But Uncle Joe heard it, and had been binge-watching media about these violent Palestinians, and suddenly the propaganda overcame his own humanity and what he knew of that family. And he went in and ruined their lives.
And now, just like any mom, she hasn’t moved a thing. His bike is still in the same place it was. His toys are still in the same place. She’s left with this great void, this great emptiness. If that was the only crime, it would be enough to wake this country up and say, “Oh, no, this is not where we need to go. Oh, no.” Right? The last thing she heard him say was, “Oh no,” if that was it.
And I got the news, by the way, when I was ironically at a protest. We were protesting on Saturday, Downtown Dallas, and I started getting all these texts about what happened in Chicago. Oh, no. Right? No Muslims attacked anyone. The media was in a frenzy over the global day of Jihad. I got called by national news outlets and local news outlets, “What are you going to do about Muslims that are going to turn into monsters, and start killing people in the streets?” Next thing we know, we have a dead six-year-old Palestinian boy. I went to his funeral, and that’s speaks to the proximity part of things.
Yeah, it felt like stepping into Gaza for a moment. It didn’t feel like America. Didn’t feel like America. It felt like stepping into Gaza. His casket, was wrapped in a Palestinian flag. There was not just sadness at his funeral, but a deep sense of anger. At the funeral, some of his family members shouted out, “Joe Biden, you did this. Joe Biden, you did this.”
And I remember the next day, it was right after the funeral, looking at the front page of CNN, and the story of Wadea was buried in the last section, and it was right over all these meaningless ads. And I thought to myself, that’s it. If this was an Arab man, let’s be real. Let’s be honest here. If this was a Palestinian landlord that stabbed a six-year-old Jewish boy to death, this would have gotten more attention. It would’ve been the front page of the news. And rightfully so, people would have grieved over the insanity of stabbing a six-year-old boy 26 times. Wadea became an afterthought the very next day.
And so it’s an extension of the bigotry, an extension of the racism, and there’s so much that happens after that. There’s the terrible stabbing of Detroit synagogue president, Samantha Woll, and it’s horrible. She was stabbed in her driveway, immediately front page of all the news outlets. Immediately, it’s the main news story. And immediately, the implications are, “There go the Muslims. The Palestinians have lost their minds. The Muslims have… They are who we thought they were. That’s what it is. They are who we thought they were. They went and they stabbed a synagogue president.” It turned out it wasn’t a hate crime, although it’s an awful crime. It turned out it wasn’t a hate crime. Wadea is an afterthought.
I had people reach out to me afterwards expressing condolences, and I responded to them, those who have justified the genocide in Gaza but that were somehow offering condolences for Wadea privately, of course. By the way, if a Muslim would’ve committed that crime, every single Muslim leader would’ve had press in front of their door to condemn that crime. We would’ve all been made complicit.
Had people reach out to me, say, “I’m sorry about what happened with Wadea. It’s terrible. I saw you at the funeral, praying for you.” My response was, “What’s the difference between Wadea and a boy in Gaza? What’s the difference between me and Wadea?” I’m a Palestinian child. My parents made it out of Palestine. I was born in this country. If I didn’t have the opportunity to grow up here and to become the person that I became, you would’ve been justifying my murder right now. You would’ve been okay with my genocide. You would’ve been giving the talking points to the press to erase me. But you feel sorry because Wadea was killed.
And I think this is when we say that anti-Palestinian bigotry is an extension of Islamophobia. If a mosque gets targeted here, people rightfully rush to protect that mosque and say, “This is horrible, and it shouldn’t happen.” But when you have an Israeli soldier bombing a mosque and laughing like a maniac on video, and it’s going viral on TikTok, and there’s no way to reign that in. And you don’t have a word of condemnation about it. In fact, you are standing in the way of a ceasefire, then you’re a hypocrite. There’s no way around it. You are a hypocrite. What’s the difference between a mosque here and a mosque there? What’s the difference between a Palestinian life here and a Palestinian life there? If you’re okay with me being murdered there, don’t say that you care about my life here. And so that hypocrisy has been laid bare.
We have said multiple times, masks are falling, masks are falling. People that we thought were decent people, somehow have found it in themselves to justify a genocide. There is no shortage at this point of videos. And again, I could have made the excuse for you, maybe in the first few weeks, that you hadn’t seen enough. But with all social media suppression across all platforms, there isn’t a single platform that hasn’t suppressed Palestinian voices. With all that suppression, there are enough videos at this point of children whose heads have been blowing off. Of children walking around without limbs. Of parents carrying their kids in bags, not body bags, I mean grocery bags because they don’t even have body bags, and screaming out, and saying, “Why are you doing this to me? Make it stop.” And you come back, and you tell the person, ” It’s Hamas’ fault.”
Where is your humanity? Where is your sense of decency? Isn’t that the logic of the so-called terrorism that you condemn? Yeah, you can wipe out entire populations. You should have talked to Hamas. It’s Hamas’ fault. All the kids in the West Bank… Where does this end? So, what are your moral boundaries here? If that’s the logic that you’re okay with, then, in that case, when there’s a mass shooter in a school in the United States, just bomb the whole school. In fact, bomb the whole town if you can’t find the mass shooter. Where does this end for you? And so when I say people have lost their humanity, they’re killing us overseas, but their hearts are dying. People have lost their humanity. They’ve lost any sense of morality and their moral boundaries, and being there, and participating in this funeral, it was anger. I’m not used to that. I’m not used to that.
I’m an imam. I pastor to people. I went to Christchurch, and that was the worst I’d ever seen before where 50 Muslims were killed by a white supremacist, and he murdered them with such callousness. And I remember being at those funerals, and there was anger, but it was just profound sadness because at least the rest of the world could all come out in one voice and say, “That’s wrong.” Now, most of the world sees what’s happening in Gaza and says, this is disgusting. Most of the world sees this, and says, “This is a genocide.” But we happen to live in this bubble here where we’re constantly being told, “We did this to ourselves.” And that’s the same logic that led to our initial expulsion, 1948. What was the crime of those 700,000 Palestinians that were driven out of their home in 1948? What did they do? They did not commit the Holocaust. They didn’t have a mass murder of Jews at their hands. What did they do? What crime were they paying for? And so, it’s been the consistent theme, this is the story of our people, not since October 7th, this is the story of our people for the last 75 years.
Biden and Trump
Lex Fridman
There is a deep geopolitical connection between the United States and that part of the world. What is the role of US politicians in all of this?
There is a deep geopolitical connection between the United States and that part of the world. What is the role of US politicians in all of this?
Omar Suleiman
James Baldwin wrote about how Israel was created as an extension of United States policy to be a colonial entity at the gates of the Middle East, and to function essentially as a military base out there, and as a means of extending its policy throughout the Middle East, and it has functioned as such. The United States is not an honest peace broker. It never has been an honest peace broker. The United States has never shown any meaningful inclination towards peace. Has guarded and protected Israel from international accountability, has made Israel invincible.
James Baldwin wrote about how Israel was created as an extension of United States policy to be a colonial entity at the gates of the Middle East, and to function essentially as a military base out there, and as a means of extending its policy throughout the Middle East, and it has functioned as such. The United States is not an honest peace broker. It never has been an honest peace broker. The United States has never shown any meaningful inclination towards peace. Has guarded and protected Israel from international accountability, has made Israel invincible.
The United States is not just responsible at the governmental level for the genocide. It’s responsible for letting it get to this point in the first place. We have funded that arsenal. We’ve given them the most sophisticated weapons in the world to test on the most desperate population in the world. We’ve given them the weapons. It’s been bipartisan. We have issued, at most, inconsequential statements of condemnation, but at the same time, stopped any international body of law from actually holding it accountable.
So, the United States, at this point, unfortunately, has rightfully lost all credibility. It should remove itself from this because it is not an honest peace broker. I think Americans are probably sick of us paying for wars in general. I think Americans are probably sick of our tax dollars going to funding a genocide, while we have a rise of homelessness and income disparity here in the United States. I think that Americans probably don’t like that we’re making ourselves so deeply unpopular in the world because of Israel’s actions. So, in the immediate moment, make the stop.
The United States could have had a ceasefire a long time ago. The United States could have ended this genocide right away. The reason why this is continuing is because of US foreign policy. And in the process of Joe Biden talking about managing this crisis and talking about making things better, there have only been more bills that have come out of Congress. In fact, he’s bypassed Congress to fund the arsenal, to keep replenishing the arsenal. Stop paying for weapons. Stop paying for someone else’s war crimes. Stop protecting another country as it commits these war crimes. And if you can’t be an honest peace broker, get out of the process.
Lex Fridman
So, there’s money that you just mentioned, and bills. And then, there’s rhetoric, which you also criticized, that he spoke about, the beheaded babies and things of that nature, so where has Joe Biden fallen short?
So, there’s money that you just mentioned, and bills. And then, there’s rhetoric, which you also criticized, that he spoke about, the beheaded babies and things of that nature, so where has Joe Biden fallen short?
Omar Suleiman
We need another podcast. That’s going to take a few hours to talk about where Joe Biden has failed. For one, the first time he seemed to find the word Palestinian in his vocabulary was when he accused the Palestinians of lying about the death toll in Gaza. And then, that turned out to also be false. In fact, the numbers that were coming out of the Gaza Health Ministry, according to multiple international bodies, have been underreporting Palestinian casualty counts. Israeli intelligence has said that the civilian count or the death toll is actually higher than what’s been coming out of the Gaza Health Ministry, so he’s failed on that front.
We need another podcast. That’s going to take a few hours to talk about where Joe Biden has failed. For one, the first time he seemed to find the word Palestinian in his vocabulary was when he accused the Palestinians of lying about the death toll in Gaza. And then, that turned out to also be false. In fact, the numbers that were coming out of the Gaza Health Ministry, according to multiple international bodies, have been underreporting Palestinian casualty counts. Israeli intelligence has said that the civilian count or the death toll is actually higher than what’s been coming out of the Gaza Health Ministry, so he’s failed on that front.
He has failed to speak to Palestinian humanity. He has spoken with deep passion and concern, as has Anthony Blinken, about the devastation in Israel and the way that people are feeling in Israel and has shown nothing of that sort towards Palestinians. We don’t want the rhetoric. We really don’t want the rhetoric. When people say, “Call for a ceasefire,” the United States has had an opportunity, and has an opportunity to really walk back and reflect on its entire policy towards Israel-Palestine. This is a moment of reflection. This is a moment of…
Omar Suleiman
… of reflection. This is a moment of restoration if you want it to be, right? And to think about what we’ve enabled in the first place, he’s shown absolutely no real empathy, and I think that he is under great delusion in thinking that the Muslim community or people of conscience are going to forgive this, are going to forget this come November. You can’t tell us that, ” Well, at least I don’t have the Trump Muslim ban,” while also carrying out a genocide primarily against Muslims and think that the Muslims are still going to vote for you.
… of reflection. This is a moment of restoration if you want it to be, right? And to think about what we’ve enabled in the first place, he’s shown absolutely no real empathy, and I think that he is under great delusion in thinking that the Muslim community or people of conscience are going to forgive this, are going to forget this come November. You can’t tell us that, ” Well, at least I don’t have the Trump Muslim ban,” while also carrying out a genocide primarily against Muslims and think that the Muslims are still going to vote for you.
And so we will make him hear us set the polls and any politician, for Congress or otherwise, that has not called for a ceasefire that has been a part of this dehumanization, we will make sure that we cease support for them in any way as a community. It’s only right.
Lex Fridman
So Biden has lost or is losing the hearts and the support of the Palestinian people and the Muslim people in America?
So Biden has lost or is losing the hearts and the support of the Palestinian people and the Muslim people in America?
Omar Suleiman
I don’t know if he ever had the hearts of the Muslim community to be honest with you. I personally was never a Joe Biden fan. I think a lot of people felt the same. This country unfortunately, the way that our political system is built is that you’re always voting for the lesser of the two evils. That’s always the way that it is, analyzing which evil is lesser, right?
I don’t know if he ever had the hearts of the Muslim community to be honest with you. I personally was never a Joe Biden fan. I think a lot of people felt the same. This country unfortunately, the way that our political system is built is that you’re always voting for the lesser of the two evils. That’s always the way that it is, analyzing which evil is lesser, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Omar Suleiman
And when people say, “If you vote for Donald Trump,” and I’m not planning to vote for Donald Trump either, but, “if you don’t vote for Joe Biden, then you are destroying democracy.” I’m like a democracy that’s given us a choice between Donald Trump. And Joe Biden is already a failed democracy, and so he never had the hearts and minds of the Muslim community. People always saw past his rhetoric. He always has had a terrible disposition towards Palestine. He’s always had a terrible disposition towards the Muslim world. His segregationist past comes out sometimes when he starts talking about the Muslim world, and you can hear the racism in his voice and you can hear the way that he talks about Palestinian life in such devalued fashion.
And when people say, “If you vote for Donald Trump,” and I’m not planning to vote for Donald Trump either, but, “if you don’t vote for Joe Biden, then you are destroying democracy.” I’m like a democracy that’s given us a choice between Donald Trump. And Joe Biden is already a failed democracy, and so he never had the hearts and minds of the Muslim community. People always saw past his rhetoric. He always has had a terrible disposition towards Palestine. He’s always had a terrible disposition towards the Muslim world. His segregationist past comes out sometimes when he starts talking about the Muslim world, and you can hear the racism in his voice and you can hear the way that he talks about Palestinian life in such devalued fashion.
So he lost us a long time ago, but he’s definitely not getting us back after this in any way. And I can’t speak for all Muslims, but I think that come November, he and all of those politicians, especially in swing states that have turned their back on the Muslim community, and not just the Muslim community, by the way. 67% of this country wants a ceasefire. Three-fourths of Democratic voters want a ceasefire. Half of Republican voters want a ceasefire. It’s not just the Muslim community. This is not some radical opinion to call for a ceasefire, and every single politician that has refused to hear us is going to pay a price at the polls, as they should.
That doesn’t mean that we’re under any illusion that the other side promises us anything better. In fact, it feels like Republicans have simply rushed to out-racist the Democrats, to outpace them in terms of talking about how they’re going to be more unapologetic in supporting Israel unconditionally. It’s been pathetic, but something has to change, and I think that Americans of conscience have to look at how this failed political system has hurt people here and abroad and talk about how to transcend that with just more humanity. Again, when you have 67% of the American public that wants a ceasefire, but only a handful of congressmen out of over 500 can muster up the courage in the face of these super PACs to say that we should stop the genocide, what are you asking for here?
You’re asking for the genocide to stop. You’re asking for Israeli hostages to be brought home. You’re asking for Palestinian prisoners to be released. You’re asking for peace and to start carving the path out to end this once and for all in the most ambiguous way possible, by the way, because there aren’t many radical American politicians. It’s the way that the system is. In the most ambiguous, bare way possible, and you can’t even bring yourself to do that. This is already a failed democracy then. All the while, again, it always boggles my mind, if you’re from the America First crew, what’s America First about? Funneling billions and billions and billions of dollars to Israel while it carries out this genocide while people are starving here.
And if you’re part of the human rights crew and progressive crew, they have a term called progressive except Palestine, right? PeP, Progressive except Palestine. Where are all your notions of social justice? You talk about policing here, but you don’t talk about who trains our police departments in many major cities and the type of brutality that’s being carried out there. You talk about human rights at the border here, but you don’t talk about the assault on people at the border there. You talk about all of these things here, but you somehow use the exact same framings against the people there. So it’s exposed, I think, the moral bankruptcy of both political polar opposites that exist in this country right now and hopefully, evoked a greater societal sentiment to say this is ridiculous.
One of the things that is happening is that more people are getting their news outside of legacy media outlets. You can’t hide that many dead babies anymore. You just can’t. More people have woken up to the Palestinian plight now than ever before. More people are outraged that this has been our American foreign policy all throughout Democratic and Republican administrations. This is what we’ve been paying for? This is what we’ve been excusing? And Israeli leaders literally spit in the faces of whoever the American president is and says, “Yeah, we don’t care what they tell us to do.”
American leadership says, “We’re pushing Israel to minimize the casualties, to get less indiscriminate with its bombing, to manage the crisis, get a few more humanitarian corridors in, to make sure that Gaza is not evacuated and not ethnically cleansed, to make sure Palestinians can come back.” And Netanyahu comes on TV and says, “From the river to the sea,” how ironic is that? From the river to the sea, and that is his policy. “We’re going to make sure that Israel controls from the river to the sea, and we’re going to push Palestinians into Sinai and Muslim countries need to take them in.”
You have Israeli ministers, national defense ministers saying things openly like, “We want to thin out the population,” i.e. ethnic cleansing. “We want to remove people, and the Muslim world needs to step up and take in these refugees.”
And the American administration or the American President says, or an American Secretary of State says, “We’re talking to them and we’re making sure that that’s not going to happen.” And if one of their ministers says something, Blinken maybe tweets out something about how that’s not going to happen, but then it happens anyway, and then we still write them the checks.
So I think most of the American public is probably going to get sick of this at some point, and just people of decency and people of conscience are going to say, “Yeah, this is not something we want to be a part of anymore.”
Lex Fridman
Do you think there’s something that Donald Trump can do to help move this in the right direction?
Do you think there’s something that Donald Trump can do to help move this in the right direction?
Omar Suleiman
Trump’s first words were about how he’s going to be worse on this. So he talked about how he’s going to deport people, revoke visas of students that are part of these pro-Palestinian rallies.
Trump’s first words were about how he’s going to be worse on this. So he talked about how he’s going to deport people, revoke visas of students that are part of these pro-Palestinian rallies.
Lex Fridman
Also, the focus was on the rallies versus what’s going on abroad.
Also, the focus was on the rallies versus what’s going on abroad.
Omar Suleiman
Yeah, but look, we had a Donald Trump presidency. He moved the embassy to Jerusalem. He was not better on this. Unfortunately, this is a bipartisan problem. And so again, we’re under no illusion here. We’re not looking to Donald Trump as a savior here, but we are going to penalize Joe Biden, and I can’t speak for everybody, but I think that that’s where a lot of our minds are at right now.
Yeah, but look, we had a Donald Trump presidency. He moved the embassy to Jerusalem. He was not better on this. Unfortunately, this is a bipartisan problem. And so again, we’re under no illusion here. We’re not looking to Donald Trump as a savior here, but we are going to penalize Joe Biden, and I can’t speak for everybody, but I think that that’s where a lot of our minds are at right now.
Ceasefire march
Lex Fridman
You spoke at the November 4th demonstration of Washington called the Free Palestine March. It had a lot of people, several hundred thousand people there. What do you remember from that experience?
You spoke at the November 4th demonstration of Washington called the Free Palestine March. It had a lot of people, several hundred thousand people there. What do you remember from that experience?
Omar Suleiman
Well, the first thing I remember is that there was no news coverage of it. So 400,000 people march on DC, one of the largest marches in history. It was nowhere to be found in mainstream media coverage. Whereas when the Stand With Israel Rally happened between the 300,000 strong Palestine rally and the 400,000 strong Palestine rally, there was a Stand with Israel rally where congressmen were bused from Congress to speak at that rally, Democrats and Republicans and high profile celebrities, and it was live-streamed across multiple places. I have to say this, the ICJ, if that wasn’t the greatest display of media bias in the domain of United States mainstream media, then I don’t know what is. They live-streamed the Israeli defense on multiple news outlets defending itself against the case for genocide and completely omitted the South African presentation of the crimes of Israel the day before.
Well, the first thing I remember is that there was no news coverage of it. So 400,000 people march on DC, one of the largest marches in history. It was nowhere to be found in mainstream media coverage. Whereas when the Stand With Israel Rally happened between the 300,000 strong Palestine rally and the 400,000 strong Palestine rally, there was a Stand with Israel rally where congressmen were bused from Congress to speak at that rally, Democrats and Republicans and high profile celebrities, and it was live-streamed across multiple places. I have to say this, the ICJ, if that wasn’t the greatest display of media bias in the domain of United States mainstream media, then I don’t know what is. They live-streamed the Israeli defense on multiple news outlets defending itself against the case for genocide and completely omitted the South African presentation of the crimes of Israel the day before.
So what I remember first and foremost about the protest is that they were nowhere to be found on mainstream media, which was expected. But what I also remember from the actual day of and from all of the pro Palestine rallies is that I have never seen a more multi-faith, more diverse group of people consistently coming out for Palestine against the genocide in Gaza than I have this time around. And I think that has been the experience all around. There has been a pronounced Jewish presence, Jewish voice for peace, if not now, other anti-Zionist Jewish groups, groups that are against the genocide, against the occupation. Former Israeli soldiers even that have been showing up at these protests. There has been a pronounced presence from Native American groups, indigenous groups, all across the board, right? Christians, Jews, Muslims. I’ve never seen more diversity at these rallies than I’ve seen this time around, which I think is a sign of where things are going.
And if you look at the under 35 opinion polls, it’s very clear that there’s a generational gap here. That the country is moving into a more coherent direction and understanding what has been happening over there, and people from all backgrounds are standing up to it now.
Lex Fridman
What do you think about the protests on campus against Israel?
What do you think about the protests on campus against Israel?
Omar Suleiman
Every protest I’ve been to has had the exact same tenor, has had the exact same messaging, but you always have that idiot or two that shows up with a sign and no one knows who that idiot is, ironically. Never comes with anybody else, always shows up somehow in the middle of the protest and puts up a sign that says something completely contrary to the messaging of the protest, and then all the cameras shift towards that guy. I see it every single time. But the overwhelming tenor of all of these protests has been consistent. It’s been calling for freedom. It’s been calling for liberation. It’s been calling for an end to the genocide, a ceasefire, an end to the occupation, an end to the apartheid.
Every protest I’ve been to has had the exact same tenor, has had the exact same messaging, but you always have that idiot or two that shows up with a sign and no one knows who that idiot is, ironically. Never comes with anybody else, always shows up somehow in the middle of the protest and puts up a sign that says something completely contrary to the messaging of the protest, and then all the cameras shift towards that guy. I see it every single time. But the overwhelming tenor of all of these protests has been consistent. It’s been calling for freedom. It’s been calling for liberation. It’s been calling for an end to the genocide, a ceasefire, an end to the occupation, an end to the apartheid.
I will tell you what many people are not seeing, Columbia University, two former IDF soldiers spraying Palestinian protesters with skunk water, which is what the IDF uses on Palestinian protesters and sometimes on worshipers on their way to Masjid al-Aqsa, which has multiple health repercussions. And so I was reading about how one of the students that was sprayed on campus, that Columbia Palestinian student has showered, at this point of us doing this podcast, 11 times, cannot get the smell out of her, has suffered all sorts of health issues as a result of being sprayed. Again, people are not seeing the other side here. People are not seeing what we’ve had to deal with at these protests. The open bigotry, and I want you to think about this by the way.
People go and serve in the IDF and then come back to the United States or the United Kingdom, and they’re not stigmatized for participating in apartheid policies or participating in a genocide. How am I supposed to feel as a Palestinian knowing that this guy right next to me participated in murdering my relatives in Gaza and has open rein to say what he wants to say or do what he wants to do? And so we haven’t seen the other side of that as well, but I’d recommend to anyone that’s talking about pro-Palestine protests to actually go see one. If you go to the protests, you listen to what’s being said, and you don’t just capture them, you got 400,000 people. You’re going to find four stupid people at a protest of 400,000 people because the protest scene is always messy.
But I think that this is a sign of the outrage and the anger and the frustration that many students have about being silenced. Again, in the media, in academic settings, professors are losing their jobs. Students are having their faces put on trucks, being doxed, these shady watch lists that get put out. I’m on a few of them as well and I just don’t care anymore. But you got these shady watch lists. People are losing their jobs at law firms. They’re losing all of their future opportunities, young Palestinian students, because of something that they tweeted that’s being taken out of context 10 years ago when they were 17 years old. It’s ridiculous. And so I think that we have to listen to the overwhelming majority of voices of people that are demonstrating for justice, not demonstrating against anyone, but demonstrating for people.
Again, there’s a large pronounced Jewish presence at every single pro-Palestine March. In fact, if you look at the organizations, the groups that have taken over Capitol Hill and train stations, it’s been, If Not Now, Not In Our Name, Never Again Means For Anyone. It’s been Jewish groups, many Jewish anti-occupation groups that have been at the forefronts. And I think that that’s where we have to pay attention to the beauty of how diverse this movement for a free Palestine has actually been.
Lex Fridman
So the average sentiment is anti- occupation, not anti-Semitic?
So the average sentiment is anti- occupation, not anti-Semitic?
Omar Suleiman
It’s incredibly lazy to say that anti-Zionism or that anti-occupation is anti-Semitic. First and foremost, the Palestinians are a Semitic people. That’s number one. Number two, look, I’m proud of my community. My community has stood against anti-Semitism in this country. The Muslim community has been at the forefront of condemning anti-Semitism. We have stood in front of synagogues. We have stood with the Jewish community when the Jewish community is attacked. This is about occupation. This is a story of a colonial entity that has driven us out of our homes and has done so in such a way that has forced us to try to be the voice of a people that are being exterminated overseas right now. This is not an anti-Semitic movement. This is a pro-freedom movement.
It’s incredibly lazy to say that anti-Zionism or that anti-occupation is anti-Semitic. First and foremost, the Palestinians are a Semitic people. That’s number one. Number two, look, I’m proud of my community. My community has stood against anti-Semitism in this country. The Muslim community has been at the forefront of condemning anti-Semitism. We have stood in front of synagogues. We have stood with the Jewish community when the Jewish community is attacked. This is about occupation. This is a story of a colonial entity that has driven us out of our homes and has done so in such a way that has forced us to try to be the voice of a people that are being exterminated overseas right now. This is not an anti-Semitic movement. This is a pro-freedom movement.
Lex Fridman
Do you think the protests ever go too far?
Do you think the protests ever go too far?
Omar Suleiman
The protest scene is a messy scene, and so again, you’re going to have sometimes that odd speaker or people get carried away in their emotions. And yes, sometimes people chant things or do things that are contrary to the protests. It’s pretty unfair when you judge the entire protest movement by some of these incidents that have happened at protests, and you don’t pay attention to what they’re protesting about in the first place, which is a genocide. Right now, everything is secondary to ending a genocide that is ongoing. In the course of this discussion, it’s not an exaggeration to say that at least 30, 40 people would’ve been killed just over the last few hours because we’re averaging 135 to 150 a day. So everything else is secondary to that. This is where we all need to be right now as people of conscience. How do we stop this? Because every single day is deeply costly.
The protest scene is a messy scene, and so again, you’re going to have sometimes that odd speaker or people get carried away in their emotions. And yes, sometimes people chant things or do things that are contrary to the protests. It’s pretty unfair when you judge the entire protest movement by some of these incidents that have happened at protests, and you don’t pay attention to what they’re protesting about in the first place, which is a genocide. Right now, everything is secondary to ending a genocide that is ongoing. In the course of this discussion, it’s not an exaggeration to say that at least 30, 40 people would’ve been killed just over the last few hours because we’re averaging 135 to 150 a day. So everything else is secondary to that. This is where we all need to be right now as people of conscience. How do we stop this? Because every single day is deeply costly.
Lex Fridman
Do you think there has been a rise of anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim hate in the US?
Do you think there has been a rise of anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim hate in the US?
Omar Suleiman
Yeah, I think that’s factual. Look, anti-Semitism is always to be condemned. It’s wrong. It’s something that as a Muslim community and as people of conscience, we have always taken a stand against. Jewish people should not be attacked for being Jewish people here or anywhere else. Synagogues should be protected, and if a person is attacked for being Jewish, we will be the first to go and to stand with them and to reject that attack on them. And there has been, as I said, an inspiring pronounced Jewish presence in the movement to end the occupation. And so we’re being morally consistent here.
Yeah, I think that’s factual. Look, anti-Semitism is always to be condemned. It’s wrong. It’s something that as a Muslim community and as people of conscience, we have always taken a stand against. Jewish people should not be attacked for being Jewish people here or anywhere else. Synagogues should be protected, and if a person is attacked for being Jewish, we will be the first to go and to stand with them and to reject that attack on them. And there has been, as I said, an inspiring pronounced Jewish presence in the movement to end the occupation. And so we’re being morally consistent here.
As far as the rise in Islamophobia, it is felt. It’s under-reported, and it is part of the same framing that has led to the devastation of our people overseas. So there’s a rise in Islamophobia. There’s a rise in anti-Semitism. There’s a rise in hatred. All of that is true, but there’s also an ongoing genocide, and that should be our priority right now to end.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Lex Fridman
I think we spoke last time, about a year ago, how has your view on Benjamin Netanyahu evolved over time?
I think we spoke last time, about a year ago, how has your view on Benjamin Netanyahu evolved over time?
Omar Suleiman
Benjamin Netanyahu has committed himself to the erasure of Palestinian people and Palestinian symbols and Palestinian land. From the very beginning of his political career, this is who he has been. We just haven’t been listening to him. He campaigned on bigotry and racism and on the promise that there would never be a Palestinian state. He campaigned on the promise that Gaza would be wiped out. He campaigned by saying, “The Arabs are rushing to the polls. We need to make sure that they don’t infect our policy.” He has always been this person. This has always been his policy. He has always indicated that genocide and ethnic cleansing is where he wants to go. So he’s simply manifesting what his message has always been, and anyone that ignores that is being disingenuous.
Benjamin Netanyahu has committed himself to the erasure of Palestinian people and Palestinian symbols and Palestinian land. From the very beginning of his political career, this is who he has been. We just haven’t been listening to him. He campaigned on bigotry and racism and on the promise that there would never be a Palestinian state. He campaigned on the promise that Gaza would be wiped out. He campaigned by saying, “The Arabs are rushing to the polls. We need to make sure that they don’t infect our policy.” He has always been this person. This has always been his policy. He has always indicated that genocide and ethnic cleansing is where he wants to go. So he’s simply manifesting what his message has always been, and anyone that ignores that is being disingenuous.
You can find statements from Benjamin Netanyahu in the ’80s, ’90s, 2000s. You can find him talking about this prior to October 7th and after October 7th. He’s definitely doing this now to save his political career. I think he wants to drive this as long as he possibly can because he knows that his days in office are numbered. But let’s also ask ourselves, why is it that Benjamin Netanyahu was able to rise to power in the first place? There’s something deeply troubling about the fact that his messaging ever resonated and what the prospects are for peace if Benjamin Netanyahu is able to rise with such pronounced hateful messaging.
Lex Fridman
So the claim that security of Israel is the primary concern is, you’re saying, a dishonest claim?
So the claim that security of Israel is the primary concern is, you’re saying, a dishonest claim?
Omar Suleiman
I think he’s trying to secure his seat in office. He knows his days are numbered. This is not about Israel. This isn’t about the hostages for him. This isn’t about anything but Benjamin Netanyahu, he is a narcissist. He’s a tyrant. He is despised around the world, and I think even amongst Israelis, I think there’s a deep hatred for him. I think the hostages’ families know that he doesn’t care about the families or about the hostages, that he’s driving a political agenda that doesn’t care about people, not Palestinian people or otherwise.
I think he’s trying to secure his seat in office. He knows his days are numbered. This is not about Israel. This isn’t about the hostages for him. This isn’t about anything but Benjamin Netanyahu, he is a narcissist. He’s a tyrant. He is despised around the world, and I think even amongst Israelis, I think there’s a deep hatred for him. I think the hostages’ families know that he doesn’t care about the families or about the hostages, that he’s driving a political agenda that doesn’t care about people, not Palestinian people or otherwise.
However, the problem of the occupation is not Benjamin Netanyahu. The problem of the occupation is the occupation. Yair Lapid was the progressive, moderate alternative, and he drove just as bigoted of an agenda against the Palestinian people as possible. So to the Palestinian that’s living in Gaza or the Palestinian in the West Bank, whoever whoever’s sitting in that seat has meant the exact same thing to them. But Benjamin Netanyahu is certainly, I think, the loudest bigot that we have seen in that seat.
Lex Fridman
Do you think Israel has the right to defend his borders?
Do you think Israel has the right to defend his borders?
Omar Suleiman
I think Israel has a responsibility to protect those that it occupies. I think you have to ask that question differently. Noura Erakat wrote a tremendous article on this from a legal perspective. When you talk about Israel defending itself, Israel is bound to occupation law. This is the problem all along. When John Kerry said, of course, “The US is great sometimes at issuing inconsequential statements that Israel has to choose whether or not it wants to be a Jewish or a Democratic state, but it can’t be both.” Israel wants to occupy and deny, and at the same time not be held to the standards of being an occupier, but be treated as if it’s some normal state.
I think Israel has a responsibility to protect those that it occupies. I think you have to ask that question differently. Noura Erakat wrote a tremendous article on this from a legal perspective. When you talk about Israel defending itself, Israel is bound to occupation law. This is the problem all along. When John Kerry said, of course, “The US is great sometimes at issuing inconsequential statements that Israel has to choose whether or not it wants to be a Jewish or a Democratic state, but it can’t be both.” Israel wants to occupy and deny, and at the same time not be held to the standards of being an occupier, but be treated as if it’s some normal state.
Those borders were drawn across occupied land and have been expanding into Palestinian territory, and people have been thrown out of their homes systematically and transgressed upon, even in the places that they fled to, which is Gaza. So when you talk about Israel having a right to defend itself, you should be talking about Israel’s duty to protect everyone under its occupation. Either lift the occupation or protect everyone under your occupation. Where are your borders? What is your responsibility? Who are you protecting? And I think that it speaks to the fact that Israeli policy considers Palestinians to be animals. They say as much and they do as much.
I’ve spoken about James Baldwin and James Baldwin talked about this pious silence surrounding Israel that we’re supposed to pretend like it’s just another state and ignore how it came into being and what it functions as. And I think that pious silence has to be broken. I remember John Stewart when he had the Daily Show several years ago, and he talked about this policy of, ” We have to defend ourselves.” And if someone was attacking your home, what would you do?
And the response was, “Well, why are you forcing people into a closet?” So you force people into this desperate situation. You drive them out of their homes, claim their homes, and then say that you’re defending yourself against them. The default is that an occupied people have a right to defend themselves. The occupier is obligated to those that they occupy.
Lex Fridman
Can you speak to this term “occupation” in Gaza? Because the people that say it is not an occupation say that Israeli troops have been pulled out from there before October 7th for many years. And to you, it still is a de facto occupation.
Can you speak to this term “occupation” in Gaza? Because the people that say it is not an occupation say that Israeli troops have been pulled out from there before October 7th for many years. And to you, it still is a de facto occupation.
Omar Suleiman
Israel doesn’t get to set the terms and then define them. It is an occupation according to any international legal standard. Israel controls the movement of everyone in Gaza. It controls the air and the seas. It controls the ability to import or export. The people that live in Gaza and the people that live in the West Bank, the Palestinians have had their identity stolen from them. So there’s the freedom of movement. There is the freedom of thriving. There is self-determination. All of that has been stolen from the people of Gaza. There’s no airport in Gaza, that was destroyed by Israel as well. It is an occupation at every level and by any meaningful legal determination.
Israel doesn’t get to set the terms and then define them. It is an occupation according to any international legal standard. Israel controls the movement of everyone in Gaza. It controls the air and the seas. It controls the ability to import or export. The people that live in Gaza and the people that live in the West Bank, the Palestinians have had their identity stolen from them. So there’s the freedom of movement. There is the freedom of thriving. There is self-determination. All of that has been stolen from the people of Gaza. There’s no airport in Gaza, that was destroyed by Israel as well. It is an occupation at every level and by any meaningful legal determination.
Houthi rebel attacks
Lex Fridman
What do you think about Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacking Israel in response to October 7th and then the United States and the UK initiating bombing of multiple targets in Yemen in response to that?
What do you think about Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacking Israel in response to October 7th and then the United States and the UK initiating bombing of multiple targets in Yemen in response to that?
Omar Suleiman
Yeah. I think that it’s clear that the United States cares more about its shipping lanes than it does about Palestinian lives, and that actually has proved it. Look, I do not support the Houthis as Houthis or their policies in general, but if you look at what has transpired and what they have said, they’re attacking these ships in response to the occupation or in response to the genocide and saying that they will continue to do so, to stop business as usual until a ceasefire is reached. They have not killed anyone. They have seized ships. They have blocked the lanes, but they have said that if a ceasefire happens, they will cease their activity.
Yeah. I think that it’s clear that the United States cares more about its shipping lanes than it does about Palestinian lives, and that actually has proved it. Look, I do not support the Houthis as Houthis or their policies in general, but if you look at what has transpired and what they have said, they’re attacking these ships in response to the occupation or in response to the genocide and saying that they will continue to do so, to stop business as usual until a ceasefire is reached. They have not killed anyone. They have seized ships. They have blocked the lanes, but they have said that if a ceasefire happens, they will cease their activity.
So instead of the United States trying to get a ceasefire through, the United States decided, let’s go bomb Yemen too. Let’s spend more money on weapons and killing innocent people, which shows you exactly where our policy always leads itself to, unfortunately. So I think that most reasonable people would say that the problem is not with Yemeni rebels attacking ships. The problem is with Israel attacking innocent Palestinian lives.
Hostages
Lex Fridman
You mentioned paying respects to the legacy of EBJ, Eddie Bernice Johnson, and remembering Palestinian child prisoners. Can you explain?
You mentioned paying respects to the legacy of EBJ, Eddie Bernice Johnson, and remembering Palestinian child prisoners. Can you explain?
Omar Suleiman
So Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson was one of the few co-sponsors of a bill that has been on the floor of Congress for years, initially sponsored by Congresswoman Betty McCollum to penalize Israel for its detention of child prisoners. Thousands of children arbitrarily detained, put in military courts, solitary confinement, and yes, sexual violence that’s been documented by human rights organizations against them, and there have been no repercussions. So I want you to think about this, just the thought of conditioning aid to Israel so that it doesn’t indiscriminately bomb entire populations has not been able to find any home in mainstream American politics. For years. Just trying to stop Israel from picking up children and throwing them into military prisons where they disappear for decades at times, has not found any thrust in mainstream American politics. Whereas any resolution that is pro-Israel will make it past both chambers relatively quickly.
So Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson was one of the few co-sponsors of a bill that has been on the floor of Congress for years, initially sponsored by Congresswoman Betty McCollum to penalize Israel for its detention of child prisoners. Thousands of children arbitrarily detained, put in military courts, solitary confinement, and yes, sexual violence that’s been documented by human rights organizations against them, and there have been no repercussions. So I want you to think about this, just the thought of conditioning aid to Israel so that it doesn’t indiscriminately bomb entire populations has not been able to find any home in mainstream American politics. For years. Just trying to stop Israel from picking up children and throwing them into military prisons where they disappear for decades at times, has not found any thrust in mainstream American politics. Whereas any resolution that is pro-Israel will make it past both chambers relatively quickly.
When people talk about Israeli hostages and then talk about Palestinian prisoners, there’s already a problem with that framing. First of all, 2. 2 million people in Gaza are hostages. Every Palestinian that live…
Omar Suleiman
Two million people in Gaza are hostages. Every Palestinian that lives under occupation is a hostage. But all of those prisoners that have been picked up, women, children, innocent people with absolutely no process of making sure that they’re treated right, or given fair trials, or even given a communication line with their families, or with any government to help them, is absolutely criminal. All of those prisoners are also hostages. When you already propose this idea that there are Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, you’re already implying that one group is complicit in their own devastation, whereas another group has had devastation visited upon them entirely out of their own doing. So it’s important for people to learn about children prisoners who are indeed hostages to an apartheid system.
Two million people in Gaza are hostages. Every Palestinian that lives under occupation is a hostage. But all of those prisoners that have been picked up, women, children, innocent people with absolutely no process of making sure that they’re treated right, or given fair trials, or even given a communication line with their families, or with any government to help them, is absolutely criminal. All of those prisoners are also hostages. When you already propose this idea that there are Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, you’re already implying that one group is complicit in their own devastation, whereas another group has had devastation visited upon them entirely out of their own doing. So it’s important for people to learn about children prisoners who are indeed hostages to an apartheid system.
Even what happened during that four-day truce, which all of us hoped would be extended and become permanent, where 150 Palestinian prisoners were released, Israel just went and picked up another 135 in the West Bank and threw them in prisons. That’s what I mean when I say you’re not addressing the root of the problem. The root of the problem is the occupation. The root of the problem is the apartheid. The root of the problem is the desperation that then drives the creation of all sorts of circumstances that will only further lead to the devastation of everyone, right? If you don’t solve that problem. At the root of that problem is the dehumanization of the Palestinian, because no one is raising alarms for those Palestinian hostages in Israeli military prisons. No one is putting up their pictures, and no one is talking about who they are, and their human stories, and the violence that’s been wreaked against them at every level.
If you don’t solve not just the root of occupation, but also the dehumanization that drives the occupation, which is unfortunately so pervasive right now in the discourse, then you’re going to continue to have this gap in how the world sees the plight of the Palestinians and how, unfortunately, the American public sees the problem of the Palestinians.
Lex Fridman
And to you, big peace agreements of the like of Abraham Accords should include Palestine.
And to you, big peace agreements of the like of Abraham Accords should include Palestine.
Omar Suleiman
Abraham Accords is nothing but an agreement in which you slap the name of Abraham on arms deals. In exchange for countries being able to undertake their own unholy pursuits, they use one of the holiest names in history and continue to erase the main victims of this atrocity. So the Abraham Accords are an insult to humanity, an insult to the Palestinians, an insult to the name of Abraham.
Abraham Accords is nothing but an agreement in which you slap the name of Abraham on arms deals. In exchange for countries being able to undertake their own unholy pursuits, they use one of the holiest names in history and continue to erase the main victims of this atrocity. So the Abraham Accords are an insult to humanity, an insult to the Palestinians, an insult to the name of Abraham.
Lex Fridman
But do you think something like that, agreements of that nature, of that scale, could be made that include the Palestinian people and that would actually make progress?
But do you think something like that, agreements of that nature, of that scale, could be made that include the Palestinian people and that would actually make progress?
Omar Suleiman
If they’re honest to the plight of the Palestinians. If they are honest to the roots of the problem, absolutely. Look, again, peace is sought, but peace cannot be used to silence. The entire peace process has been hung over the Palestinians all of these years while settlements continue to expand and their situation only continue to get worse. Is Israel really going to remove the 700,000, 800,000 settlers and suddenly change its tune on a two-state solution? Benjamin Netanyahu is saying right now, and he’s speaking to, unfortunately, what is clearly a majority of the Israeli public, that there will never be a Palestinian state. So these peace talks cannot be used to suffocate all of the work of justice and bringing Israel to accountability. The world has to act when they see apartheid. The world has to act when they see occupation. If the world fails to bring Israel to a place of accountability, then a few countries that have their own agendas cannot put forth anything meaningful for the victims of Israel, being the Palestinian people.
If they’re honest to the plight of the Palestinians. If they are honest to the roots of the problem, absolutely. Look, again, peace is sought, but peace cannot be used to silence. The entire peace process has been hung over the Palestinians all of these years while settlements continue to expand and their situation only continue to get worse. Is Israel really going to remove the 700,000, 800,000 settlers and suddenly change its tune on a two-state solution? Benjamin Netanyahu is saying right now, and he’s speaking to, unfortunately, what is clearly a majority of the Israeli public, that there will never be a Palestinian state. So these peace talks cannot be used to suffocate all of the work of justice and bringing Israel to accountability. The world has to act when they see apartheid. The world has to act when they see occupation. If the world fails to bring Israel to a place of accountability, then a few countries that have their own agendas cannot put forth anything meaningful for the victims of Israel, being the Palestinian people.
MLK Jr and Malcolm X
Lex Fridman
There’s a lot of questions I want to ask you about the nature of resistance and what is the proper way to resist. What is the practical, pragmatic, effective ways of resisting. One example that is often brought up is the difference between MLK and Malcolm X. One emphasized nonviolent resistance, the other emphasized any-means-necessary resistance. Which do you side with in general, and in this particular case of what has happened over the past 100-plus days?
There’s a lot of questions I want to ask you about the nature of resistance and what is the proper way to resist. What is the practical, pragmatic, effective ways of resisting. One example that is often brought up is the difference between MLK and Malcolm X. One emphasized nonviolent resistance, the other emphasized any-means-necessary resistance. Which do you side with in general, and in this particular case of what has happened over the past 100-plus days?
Omar Suleiman
In general, that framing relies on a sanitization of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., and a vilification of Malcolm X, that a lot of people do put forth and present as two polar opposites in how they approached the plight of Black people in America and resisting racism here in America. When I taught a course at Southern Methodist University on MLK, and Malcolm X, and Islam, and the Civil Rights Movement, what I’d often do is I’d give my students a set of quotes. I would say, “Assign this to Malcolm or Martin.” and they’d always get it wrong, right? You can find quotes from MLK in Breaking the Silence, and especially when he took a stand against the Vietnam War, that sound so radical when you compare them to the image of MLK. And Malcolm is, of course, turned into this militant, angry Muslim who just wanted violence and was seeking chaos here in the United States.
In general, that framing relies on a sanitization of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., and a vilification of Malcolm X, that a lot of people do put forth and present as two polar opposites in how they approached the plight of Black people in America and resisting racism here in America. When I taught a course at Southern Methodist University on MLK, and Malcolm X, and Islam, and the Civil Rights Movement, what I’d often do is I’d give my students a set of quotes. I would say, “Assign this to Malcolm or Martin.” and they’d always get it wrong, right? You can find quotes from MLK in Breaking the Silence, and especially when he took a stand against the Vietnam War, that sound so radical when you compare them to the image of MLK. And Malcolm is, of course, turned into this militant, angry Muslim who just wanted violence and was seeking chaos here in the United States.
So let’s be clear about something here, that Malcolm never himself was part of any violence. Malcolm never did anything violent. Malcolm found it hypocritical to commit the oppressed people to nonviolence while not restraining the oppressor from its violence. I agree with Malcolm. It is absolutely hypocritical to focus your attention and your energy on the oppressed people, and committing them to nonviolence, while not directing your attention to the oppressor. When you have such asymmetry, when you have a clear aggressor and aggressed upon, you have a clear colonial entity and a clear colonized people, you focus your energy on restraining the colonial power. You focus your energy on restraining the oppressor, not the oppressed. That was Malcolm’s point, and it’s clear in his messaging throughout his religious growth, because, of course, Malcolm did evolve as a person. But Malcolm found it deeply hypocritical to commit the oppressed to nonviolence.
Malcolm also had a deep understanding of the way that brutality here, state violence in the United States was connected to its state violence abroad and American imperialism as a whole. Malcolm was the first to speak on Vietnam, the first major African American leader to speak on Vietnam. Martin followed. Malcolm also went to Gaza in 1964. 1964, went to Khan Yunis, which is now under heavy bombardment, and Malcolm penned an essay on Zionism, and connected Zionism to American imperialism and the broader implications of America’s foreign policy. So Martin and Malcolm, if you look at them in the capacity of what’s happening right now, where I would say you can find something that is deeply profound, James Cone wrote a book called Malcolm & Martin: Dreams and Nightmares. He wrote something profound to the effect that Martin tried to liberate white people from their own racism, whereas Malcolm tried to liberate Black people from the effects of that racism on them. They both played a deeply important role.
Self-determination is crucial to maintain the fuel of a movement. I think one of the things that probably deeply frustrates those that have sought the erasure of Palestine is that Palestinian consciousness has only continued to grow after 75 years. Palestinians in diaspora and Palestinians within occupied territory all are deeply rooted in their Palestinian identity and existence, and they’re not going away.
So I think that that’s where the function is important of this, whereas those that are complicit in the oppression need to be liberated from their own oppression and liberated from what they’re participating in. Most Americans that I talk to, that have absolutely no idea about what’s going on, when they come to hear just a few stories of the plight of the Palestinian people, and the types of brutality that we have encountered, wake up to this and say, “Oh, my God. This is what my tax dollars go to? This is what I’m a part of?” Right? So we have to liberate people across the board from being oppressors or from being oppressed.
Lex Fridman
What do you think about the seeming fact the majority of Palestinians support the October 7th attacks?
What do you think about the seeming fact the majority of Palestinians support the October 7th attacks?
Omar Suleiman
You have to see their world through their eyes. You can’t try to see their world through your eyes. If you live under occupation, you’re routinely harassed at Israeli checkpoints. The occupation is expanding into your territory. You’re meeting families regularly that have been thrown out of their homes and that are looking for a new place in this shrinking territory. You deal with routine airstrikes. You have no way to get out. You have no way to grow. You don’t even have a passport. Your education is subpar. Your standards of living are lower than the rest of the world. And all you hear from the other side, which dominates the discourse and dominates every element of your existence, are promises of complete erasure.
You have to see their world through their eyes. You can’t try to see their world through your eyes. If you live under occupation, you’re routinely harassed at Israeli checkpoints. The occupation is expanding into your territory. You’re meeting families regularly that have been thrown out of their homes and that are looking for a new place in this shrinking territory. You deal with routine airstrikes. You have no way to get out. You have no way to grow. You don’t even have a passport. Your education is subpar. Your standards of living are lower than the rest of the world. And all you hear from the other side, which dominates the discourse and dominates every element of your existence, are promises of complete erasure.
I mentioned 2023, 13,000 new settlement units being advanced. If that happened anywhere, right? Just think about what that means when you clear out a village or two, and it’s not that big of a territory, right? When you know that that’s happening, and when you have been subjected to that, anyone that claims to be supporting you or uplifting you from that state of misery is going to have sympathy. Whether you agree with their mission, or their methods, or not, it’s human. It is human that if anyone says that they are going to get you out of this misery, and inflict pain on those who have given you a life of pain, and promised you a future of pain, you’re going to have sympathy to that group whether you agree with them or not.
I think that the question also has to be asked, what about the Israeli public? Israel holds all of the power in that region, holds all of the power over that territory. Is able to dominate the expansion of its own territory and diminish any Palestinian territory. Is able to place restrictions whenever it wants on Palestinian movement, trying to get to their holy sites or otherwise. Whether it’s Masjid Al-Aqsa, or the Holy Sepulchre, or the Church of Nativity, right? The majority of the Israeli public, before October 7th, unfortunately, according to all polls, favors a nondemocratic regime, the end of a two-state solution, does not care about the plight of Palestinian people, the majority of the Israeli public. Why is that? And what does that mean for Palestinians, right? Especially now after this genocide, the vast majority of the Israeli public does not favor a ceasefire, right?
What are we supposed to do when we see mainstream media coming out of Israel, pop culture, TikTok videos that only speak to a greater desire to eliminate the Palestinian people, right? So anyone that says that they are going to support your plight, whether you agree with their mission or their methods, is going to resonate with that child that has grown up in those desperate circumstances. Bassem Youssef had an interview with Piers Morgan and he was talking about this. He literally gave it a human story. If you’re a child that’s grown up, you’ve lost limbs, your parents are dead, your friends are dead. You have been made a refugee two or three times already. You have no future in sight, and then someone comes to you and says, “I’m going to help you and I’m going to fight back on your behalf.” of course, it’s going to resonate. It’s human, right? So I think that it’s important for us to see the world through their eyes, rather than try to see the world through our eyes.
Lex Fridman
So as Malcolm X did, you’re calling for highlighting the asymmetry in violence and asymmetry in moral reasoning.
So as Malcolm X did, you’re calling for highlighting the asymmetry in violence and asymmetry in moral reasoning.
Omar Suleiman
Absolutely. It’s important. You’re not going to be able to solve this problem unless you’re able to do that. When Malcolm said that if you stick a knife nine inches into my back and pull it out six inches, that’s not progress. Progress is healing the wounds, and you’re not even willing to acknowledge that the knife is there yet. Those that don’t acknowledge what is determined now by any international human rights organization, even Israeli human rights organization, B’Tselem and others, to be apartheid, a state of apartheid and a state of occupation, and now an unfolding genocide, are not partners for peace.
Absolutely. It’s important. You’re not going to be able to solve this problem unless you’re able to do that. When Malcolm said that if you stick a knife nine inches into my back and pull it out six inches, that’s not progress. Progress is healing the wounds, and you’re not even willing to acknowledge that the knife is there yet. Those that don’t acknowledge what is determined now by any international human rights organization, even Israeli human rights organization, B’Tselem and others, to be apartheid, a state of apartheid and a state of occupation, and now an unfolding genocide, are not partners for peace.
Lex Fridman
It just hurts me to think how long it takes to heal. Even if the healing begins now, with the knife metaphor, it’s just going to be generations. Because people don’t forget when your father and mother were murdered, or somebody that you know in your family was killed. They don’t forget.
It just hurts me to think how long it takes to heal. Even if the healing begins now, with the knife metaphor, it’s just going to be generations. Because people don’t forget when your father and mother were murdered, or somebody that you know in your family was killed. They don’t forget.
Omar Suleiman
Look, I think the point is that we have to come to terms with the fact that the trauma of the past does not justify the murder of the present, and the fear of the future does not justify the murder of the present. The urgency of the world right now should be entirely focused on ending this atrocity that, unfortunately, the world has become so complacent with. Again, prior to October 7th, the status quo was not acceptable, and there was no means in sight in the global arena to rein this in, to make Israel more accountable to stop this.
Look, I think the point is that we have to come to terms with the fact that the trauma of the past does not justify the murder of the present, and the fear of the future does not justify the murder of the present. The urgency of the world right now should be entirely focused on ending this atrocity that, unfortunately, the world has become so complacent with. Again, prior to October 7th, the status quo was not acceptable, and there was no means in sight in the global arena to rein this in, to make Israel more accountable to stop this.
I do believe in the power of healing. I do believe in the power of growth. I do believe that we have seen ugly episodes of history before that have been rectified. I also believe in the heart of my people. I believe that the Palestinian people are people of resistance, they’re people of resilience, they’re people of courage. They’re people of benevolence and magnanimity, and they’re people who have been made to grow under the worst of circumstances. I don’t see, in the hearts of young Palestinians that have been tormented, I don’t see darkness. I see light. I see the ability to still laugh and find joy despite everything that’s happened. So I think that the urgency right now just has to be towards ensuring that they have a life, that they’re not being killed anymore.
Palestinian refugees
Lex Fridman
I was wondering if you can comment on a idea and notion that comes up often in conversations about this, of why can’t other nations in the region take in Palestinian refugees?
I was wondering if you can comment on a idea and notion that comes up often in conversations about this, of why can’t other nations in the region take in Palestinian refugees?
Omar Suleiman
I think that we have to tackle what’s implied by that at multiple levels, and I actually want to walk back. I was listening to Nikki Haley, when she said in one of her interviews, “Why is it that you think no one wants to take the Palestinians in?” She had this deeply disturbing laugh to it. Or Ben Shapiro, when he said, “Israelis like to build and Arabs like to bomb crap and live in their sewage.” Or, “Why is it that no one wants to govern the Palestinians?” suggesting that Palestinians are ungovernable and not fit to bring into your countries, and that’s why they’re being turned away.
I think that we have to tackle what’s implied by that at multiple levels, and I actually want to walk back. I was listening to Nikki Haley, when she said in one of her interviews, “Why is it that you think no one wants to take the Palestinians in?” She had this deeply disturbing laugh to it. Or Ben Shapiro, when he said, “Israelis like to build and Arabs like to bomb crap and live in their sewage.” Or, “Why is it that no one wants to govern the Palestinians?” suggesting that Palestinians are ungovernable and not fit to bring into your countries, and that’s why they’re being turned away.
You know who else faced that bigotry? Jews trying to escape the Holocaust. 1939, 300,000 Germans applied for refuge here in the United States. I think only about 10,000 were allowed in, and we also turned away ships of Jews that were seeking refuge here in the United States, on what basis? That they were national security threats and could not be trusted. They could not be taken in. That’s the same bigotry that’s driving this, and I want you to think about it from that perspective. How deeply offensive that is when you have millions of Palestinians in diaspora. Where have Palestinians caused trouble where they’ve gone? Everywhere Palestinians are, they have overcome significant hurdles to become scientists, and doctors, and to grow themselves, and to grow the places that they’re in. Where have Palestinians that have been displaced all over the world caused issues for people, right? It’s both racist and factually incorrect.
That’s not the right question that should be asked. The question that should be asked are, why are these people driven from their homes? Not, why won’t other people around them open their homes to them? So I’ll just share with you that, even on a personal level, it’s really interesting, because sometimes on Twitter or wherever it is, it’ll be like, “Go back home.” Right? “Why don’t you go back home?” And I’m sitting there thinking to myself like, “Sure. My parents were driven from their homes. Yeah, sure. I was born in this country as a consequence of bad policy.” Now, I embrace my complicated identity in that regard, and I hope to be productive as an American, but I am a Palestinian. And Palestinians in diaspora that have been fortunate enough to have the ability to build and to overcome circumstances should not be an excuse for eliminating the Palestinians that remain in their homes under that torment. So this bigotry is not new, unfortunately. Its manifestation is ugly, and we have to push back on it whenever it shows itself, no matter who it’s being spoken about.
Lex Fridman
How difficult has it been for people in Gaza to flee?
How difficult has it been for people in Gaza to flee?
Omar Suleiman
I mean, they’re blockaded from all directions. There is nowhere for people in Gaza to go. They cannot get out, and the reality is that they don’t want to leave. They do not want to leave. The Palestinian people want to live in their land, in their homes, and to continue to produce an extension of the beautiful culture and legacy that was handed to them. They don’t want to leave. In fact, those that have fled for whatever reason, or have been able to get out for medical treatment, or because they have some sort of citizenship in other countries, all they’re talking about is going back and rebuilding. You can’t bomb Palestine out of our hearts. You cannot starve Palestine out of our hearts. I think that’s a critical mistake that Israel is making. It thinks that if it destroys Gaza enough, if it wipes out all the buildings, that people will never want to come back. But we don’t want to go anywhere, as a Palestinian people, in a way that would remove us from our homes.
I mean, they’re blockaded from all directions. There is nowhere for people in Gaza to go. They cannot get out, and the reality is that they don’t want to leave. They do not want to leave. The Palestinian people want to live in their land, in their homes, and to continue to produce an extension of the beautiful culture and legacy that was handed to them. They don’t want to leave. In fact, those that have fled for whatever reason, or have been able to get out for medical treatment, or because they have some sort of citizenship in other countries, all they’re talking about is going back and rebuilding. You can’t bomb Palestine out of our hearts. You cannot starve Palestine out of our hearts. I think that’s a critical mistake that Israel is making. It thinks that if it destroys Gaza enough, if it wipes out all the buildings, that people will never want to come back. But we don’t want to go anywhere, as a Palestinian people, in a way that would remove us from our homes.
Lex Fridman
The Palestinian people are proud people.
The Palestinian people are proud people.
Omar Suleiman
Yeah, you’ve met a lot of them, right? When you sat with Mohammed El-Kurd, or people in East Jerusalem, what those people have been subjected to, the harassment. Think about the tenacity and the character that it takes to still try to walk back into your home after an intruder has been brought in by the state, that’s sitting in your living room, that is pushing you around, and you’re saying, “I’m not leaving my home.” This is literally what’s been happening in East Jerusalem, and we’re not going anywhere. I think those of us that are in diaspora, Palestine is not leaving our hearts, and those of us that are still there are not leaving their land. The world has to make the occupier more accountable, not tell the occupied how to cope.
Yeah, you’ve met a lot of them, right? When you sat with Mohammed El-Kurd, or people in East Jerusalem, what those people have been subjected to, the harassment. Think about the tenacity and the character that it takes to still try to walk back into your home after an intruder has been brought in by the state, that’s sitting in your living room, that is pushing you around, and you’re saying, “I’m not leaving my home.” This is literally what’s been happening in East Jerusalem, and we’re not going anywhere. I think those of us that are in diaspora, Palestine is not leaving our hearts, and those of us that are still there are not leaving their land. The world has to make the occupier more accountable, not tell the occupied how to cope.
Lex Fridman
Do you ever imagine that if your family did not flee and you were now living, say in Gaza, what you would be doing?
Do you ever imagine that if your family did not flee and you were now living, say in Gaza, what you would be doing?
Omar Suleiman
I think about what could’ve been all the time. I actually mentioned this in the first D.C. protest, that I remember getting a news notification just prior to October, with my name in it. I always get these notifications, right, if my name has been mentioned in an article. So, “Oh, your name has been mentioned in an article.” and it was a 16-year-old Omar Suleiman who was murdered in the West Bank. He literally had my name. I held up his picture and I realized that could’ve been me. So I think of why God chose me to not be there, and hopefully Him choosing all of us that are not there to be for those that are still there, to be their voices. I’m grateful and I’m also in pain. I’m grateful for the opportunity to be able to speak on their behalf, but I’m also guilty that they have to bear the brunt of this evil hatred that unfortunately displaced our parents in the first place.
I think about what could’ve been all the time. I actually mentioned this in the first D.C. protest, that I remember getting a news notification just prior to October, with my name in it. I always get these notifications, right, if my name has been mentioned in an article. So, “Oh, your name has been mentioned in an article.” and it was a 16-year-old Omar Suleiman who was murdered in the West Bank. He literally had my name. I held up his picture and I realized that could’ve been me. So I think of why God chose me to not be there, and hopefully Him choosing all of us that are not there to be for those that are still there, to be their voices. I’m grateful and I’m also in pain. I’m grateful for the opportunity to be able to speak on their behalf, but I’m also guilty that they have to bear the brunt of this evil hatred that unfortunately displaced our parents in the first place.
Lex Fridman
You mentioned that Palestinians invoke the plight of Indigenous people like Native Americans. What works and doesn’t work about this analogy?
You mentioned that Palestinians invoke the plight of Indigenous people like Native Americans. What works and doesn’t work about this analogy?
Omar Suleiman
I think that there’s a powerful connection between the Palestinian people and the Indigenous in this land and in other places that have been wronged. We are living here in the United States on stolen lands that is drenched in the blood of the Natives, and that was built upon with the blood, sweat, and labor of enslaved Africans that were brought from overseas. It’s a great evil that we have to reckon with constantly, so I think that’s the power of solidarity. If you look in Canada and you look in places like Australia, there has been a refocus on the crimes against the Indigenous of those places.
I think that there’s a powerful connection between the Palestinian people and the Indigenous in this land and in other places that have been wronged. We are living here in the United States on stolen lands that is drenched in the blood of the Natives, and that was built upon with the blood, sweat, and labor of enslaved Africans that were brought from overseas. It’s a great evil that we have to reckon with constantly, so I think that’s the power of solidarity. If you look in Canada and you look in places like Australia, there has been a refocus on the crimes against the Indigenous of those places.
I think that what makes the Palestinian plight deeply painful, and maybe where the analogy even doesn’t do justice, is that from the river to the sea is less than 500 times what the United States is in terms of land. It’s not that big of a piece of land. The original lie was, “A land without a people for a people without a land.” The problem was that there were people on that land that were forcibly removed. So I think that the sheer size, right? We’re talking about a tiny piece of land, and a lot of people that were removed forcibly from their land, and that continue to be brutalized under those miserable conditions.
Mohammad and Jesus
Lex Fridman
Why is Palestine a special place, a holy land?
Why is Palestine a special place, a holy land?
Omar Suleiman
It’s the land of prophets. It is a land that holds deep significance, obviously to Jews, Christians, and Muslims. It’s the land of Abraham, peace be upon him. It is the land that has such a rich history to it that connects multiple peoples in multiple ways. It’s precious. I think that history, while it tells the story of tragedy and struggle over that piece of land, also tells a beautiful story of sanctity.
It’s the land of prophets. It is a land that holds deep significance, obviously to Jews, Christians, and Muslims. It’s the land of Abraham, peace be upon him. It is the land that has such a rich history to it that connects multiple peoples in multiple ways. It’s precious. I think that history, while it tells the story of tragedy and struggle over that piece of land, also tells a beautiful story of sanctity.
Lex Fridman
You mention Abraham, prophets. Prophet Muhammad is deeply venerated in Islam, obviously, but other prophets are as well, Jesus being one of them. What are the similarities and differences in the teachings from these two prophets?
You mention Abraham, prophets. Prophet Muhammad is deeply venerated in Islam, obviously, but other prophets are as well, Jesus being one of them. What are the similarities and differences in the teachings from these two prophets?
Omar Suleiman
Well, Islam refers to this idea of submission to one God and attaining peace in the process. And refers to the way of life that prophets have all come with, which is this idea of monotheism, and serving that one God in the way that he commands you to serve him. So to us, as it says in the Quran that we do not distinguish between the prophets, all of the prophets came with one message, one mission. There’s a coherence in the creed. There is a beauty in the foundation of what would become the legislation of each of those prophets, and we see them all as siblings in prophethood.
Well, Islam refers to this idea of submission to one God and attaining peace in the process. And refers to the way of life that prophets have all come with, which is this idea of monotheism, and serving that one God in the way that he commands you to serve him. So to us, as it says in the Quran that we do not distinguish between the prophets, all of the prophets came with one message, one mission. There’s a coherence in the creed. There is a beauty in the foundation of what would become the legislation of each of those prophets, and we see them all as siblings in prophethood.
So we say, “Abraham, peace be upon him.” We say, “Jesus, peace be upon him.” We say, “Moses, peace be upon him.” We say, “Muhammad, peace be upon him.” We believe that Moses came to confirm what came from Abraham. Jesus came to confirm what came from Moses. Muhammad came to confirm what came from Jesus. They upheld the same message. God did not change over time, nor did the centrality of his message of monotheism change over time, and so to us, it’s one beautiful house. There’s a saying from the prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, where he describes the house of prophethood, each prophet being a brick, and him simply being the last brick of a beautiful house. And so we love the prophets of God and we believe that they-
Omar Suleiman
And so we love the prophets of God and we believe that they each came with the legislation that was necessary for the time, but with the same message.
And so we love the prophets of God and we believe that they each came with the legislation that was necessary for the time, but with the same message.
Lex Fridman
So the message is fundamentally the same. Is there a difference in emphasis, for example, the emphasis on love with Jesus?
So the message is fundamentally the same. Is there a difference in emphasis, for example, the emphasis on love with Jesus?
Omar Suleiman
Yeah. It’s like when you talk about MLK and Malcolm to an extent, except there was actually some difference, right, between MLK and Malcolm. I just think that the difference is exaggerated between them. But I don’t think that Moses didn’t emphasize love, but Jesus emphasized love. And then Muhammad didn’t emphasize love, peace be upon them all. I think that they each emphasized the same attributes and names of God and ways of knowing God. But there were, of course, changes within legislation, changes within the divine law, but the divine spirit remained the same. And so I don’t see them as being counter to each other, nor do I see that any prophet betrayed the message that came before them. I think they’re all part of the same beautiful message that we have to be at harmony with our creator and that we turn towards him for our guidance, and that when we do so, we establish a greater existence here on earth. And so I think that that’s something that’s consistent throughout the message of all the prophets.
Yeah. It’s like when you talk about MLK and Malcolm to an extent, except there was actually some difference, right, between MLK and Malcolm. I just think that the difference is exaggerated between them. But I don’t think that Moses didn’t emphasize love, but Jesus emphasized love. And then Muhammad didn’t emphasize love, peace be upon them all. I think that they each emphasized the same attributes and names of God and ways of knowing God. But there were, of course, changes within legislation, changes within the divine law, but the divine spirit remained the same. And so I don’t see them as being counter to each other, nor do I see that any prophet betrayed the message that came before them. I think they’re all part of the same beautiful message that we have to be at harmony with our creator and that we turn towards him for our guidance, and that when we do so, we establish a greater existence here on earth. And so I think that that’s something that’s consistent throughout the message of all the prophets.
Lex Fridman
You have been longtime friends with and had amazing conversations with people of other faiths, Christian, Jewish. How has the events of October 7th and the days after affected this in the United States? Your ability to have interfaith conversations, connections, relationships, friendships.
You have been longtime friends with and had amazing conversations with people of other faiths, Christian, Jewish. How has the events of October 7th and the days after affected this in the United States? Your ability to have interfaith conversations, connections, relationships, friendships.
Omar Suleiman
Complicated. Very complicated. And it’s not just Muslims and Jews, it’s also Christian Zionists. Christian Zionism is at the root of the problem, in my opinion, especially when we talk about what drives America’s unshakable, unconditional commitment to Israel. It’s devastating, I think, to Palestinian Christians in particular when Israel can bomb some of the oldest churches of Christianity in Gaza and kill Palestinian Christians, and Palestinian Christians are barred from going to the Holy Sepulcher or to their places of worship in Bethlehem or Jerusalem, and Christians here in the United States turn their back on them.
Complicated. Very complicated. And it’s not just Muslims and Jews, it’s also Christian Zionists. Christian Zionism is at the root of the problem, in my opinion, especially when we talk about what drives America’s unshakable, unconditional commitment to Israel. It’s devastating, I think, to Palestinian Christians in particular when Israel can bomb some of the oldest churches of Christianity in Gaza and kill Palestinian Christians, and Palestinian Christians are barred from going to the Holy Sepulcher or to their places of worship in Bethlehem or Jerusalem, and Christians here in the United States turn their back on them.
I think that it is particularly outrageous. So it’s complicated. Look, I expect more from people in the face of a genocide. We don’t have to agree on all the particulars, but we can agree that what is happening is morally outrageous. And so I think that I’ve had a few people that have reached out and said, “I want to say something, but I can’t.” And I’ve had to respond with, that’s not good enough. So I think that we have a problem, and instead of focusing on that problem, I’d like to focus on the more morally consistent voices across faiths that have risen to the moment rather than those that have failed.
Lex Fridman
So you wish more rabbis would be able to have a conversation like we’re having today and also not allow it to be seen as them turning their back on their religion?
So you wish more rabbis would be able to have a conversation like we’re having today and also not allow it to be seen as them turning their back on their religion?
Omar Suleiman
Rabbis, pastors, again, it’s not just Jewish leadership; it’s also Christian leadership. I think that it’s important for those that have claimed to be allies in the fight against Islamophobia, to see that you cannot be opposed to Islamophobia while also extending anti-Palestinian bigotry.
Rabbis, pastors, again, it’s not just Jewish leadership; it’s also Christian leadership. I think that it’s important for those that have claimed to be allies in the fight against Islamophobia, to see that you cannot be opposed to Islamophobia while also extending anti-Palestinian bigotry.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, one of the things since we last spoke, I’ve gotten to meet a lot of Palestinian Christians, including in West Bank, and that was fascinating. And those are beautiful people.
Yeah, one of the things since we last spoke, I’ve gotten to meet a lot of Palestinian Christians, including in West Bank, and that was fascinating. And those are beautiful people.
Omar Suleiman
I think people should watch Reverend Munther Isaac’s sermon on Christmas, Jesus in the Rubble. It was deeply profound. I had a chance to speak to Mitri Raheb from the Lutheran Church there as well. No, they’re devastated. It was eyeopening to many people here when Justin Amash, who was a Republican congressman, right, Palestinian Christian, Republican congressman, posted about his own family dying in one of the church bombings. So it’s strange, strange times. And I think that it shows that the philosophy of hate that drives this terrible policy is secular at it’s root and not religious.
I think people should watch Reverend Munther Isaac’s sermon on Christmas, Jesus in the Rubble. It was deeply profound. I had a chance to speak to Mitri Raheb from the Lutheran Church there as well. No, they’re devastated. It was eyeopening to many people here when Justin Amash, who was a Republican congressman, right, Palestinian Christian, Republican congressman, posted about his own family dying in one of the church bombings. So it’s strange, strange times. And I think that it shows that the philosophy of hate that drives this terrible policy is secular at it’s root and not religious.
Lex Fridman
One of the criticisms of Islam points to specific verses of the Quran and the criticism being that it is not a religion of peace. Can you speak to that?
One of the criticisms of Islam points to specific verses of the Quran and the criticism being that it is not a religion of peace. Can you speak to that?
Omar Suleiman
So objectively speaking, if you were to take the verses of the Quran about violence and compare them just from a purely percentage-based comparison to the New Testament and the Old Testament, you would find less verses about war in the Quran than the Old Testament or the New Testament. And there are plenty of studies to speak to that. Deeper than that, contextualizing the birth of Islam, the revelation of the Quran, which was over 23 years in response to deep persecution of the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, makes it very clear that none of those verses are what they’ve been made out to be. If Muslims believed that they had to kill people wherever they are, mankind would not exist. There are two billion of us, right? If we believe that we were called by the Quran to hurt people and to kill people simply for being non-believers, right, it would not make for a sustainable world.
So objectively speaking, if you were to take the verses of the Quran about violence and compare them just from a purely percentage-based comparison to the New Testament and the Old Testament, you would find less verses about war in the Quran than the Old Testament or the New Testament. And there are plenty of studies to speak to that. Deeper than that, contextualizing the birth of Islam, the revelation of the Quran, which was over 23 years in response to deep persecution of the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, makes it very clear that none of those verses are what they’ve been made out to be. If Muslims believed that they had to kill people wherever they are, mankind would not exist. There are two billion of us, right? If we believe that we were called by the Quran to hurt people and to kill people simply for being non-believers, right, it would not make for a sustainable world.
So Islam is not violent. And I think that the history of Muslims also bears witness to that. The history of Islam is a history of contribution, is a history of building, is a history of medicine, and science, and math. And of course, Muslims have sometimes fallen short of Islamic standards in the past and in the present. But if you look at the overall history of Islam and the history of the Muslim community, that’s not the case. And when you look at the present Muslim community around the world, Muslims do not account for a greater proportion of violence than other faith communities. And again, the word terrorist is a functionless and meaningless word, because, to me, it’s no less violent if it’s commanded by a head of state or by a government than by a non-state actor. So Muslims do not account for a greater portion of violence now, nor have they accounted for a greater portion of violence in the past.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think these narratives have taken hold in present discourse, at least in the United States?
Why do you think these narratives have taken hold in present discourse, at least in the United States?
Omar Suleiman
Because they allow for greater violence against the Muslim community domestically and abroad. The United States has launched wars against primarily Muslim countries, right? And has a particularly violent foreign policy towards the Muslim world. And the Muslim community here in the United States has dealt with, unfortunately, multiple aggressive iterations of programs of suppression and surveillance under Republican and Democratic administrations. And so there’s a convenience to that Islamophobia. There’s a convenience to that framing of the Muslim community that also distracts from other forms of violence that are deeply pervasive and present, including the ones that are committed by the government itself.
Because they allow for greater violence against the Muslim community domestically and abroad. The United States has launched wars against primarily Muslim countries, right? And has a particularly violent foreign policy towards the Muslim world. And the Muslim community here in the United States has dealt with, unfortunately, multiple aggressive iterations of programs of suppression and surveillance under Republican and Democratic administrations. And so there’s a convenience to that Islamophobia. There’s a convenience to that framing of the Muslim community that also distracts from other forms of violence that are deeply pervasive and present, including the ones that are committed by the government itself.
Al-Aqsa Mosque
Lex Fridman
If it’s okay, you’ve mentioned al-Aqsa Mosque a couple of times. I would love it if you can describe why it is such an important place, a holy place for Muslims in general, but also for this particular crisis that we have been speaking about today.
If it’s okay, you’ve mentioned al-Aqsa Mosque a couple of times. I would love it if you can describe why it is such an important place, a holy place for Muslims in general, but also for this particular crisis that we have been speaking about today.
Omar Suleiman
So Muslims honor the history of all of the prophets. So all of the prophets that have walked in that place, all of the prophets that have worshiped in that place, all of that makes it sacred. So it’s not separated from Muslims, from post-Muhammad, peace be upon him, versus prior to Muhammad, peace be upon him, in terms of the sanctity of that place. So we honor it. And Masjid al-Aqsa in particular is the place where the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, leads the other prophets in prayer in the night of what’s known as Al-Isra’ wal-Mi’raj, the night journey of the Prophet, peace be upon him, and then he ascends to the heavens and back. And it’s also the first Qibla, which is the first place of direction of prayer for us. So before Muslims faced Mecca and prayer, for the first half of Islam, they actually faced towards Jerusalem in their prayer.
So Muslims honor the history of all of the prophets. So all of the prophets that have walked in that place, all of the prophets that have worshiped in that place, all of that makes it sacred. So it’s not separated from Muslims, from post-Muhammad, peace be upon him, versus prior to Muhammad, peace be upon him, in terms of the sanctity of that place. So we honor it. And Masjid al-Aqsa in particular is the place where the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, leads the other prophets in prayer in the night of what’s known as Al-Isra’ wal-Mi’raj, the night journey of the Prophet, peace be upon him, and then he ascends to the heavens and back. And it’s also the first Qibla, which is the first place of direction of prayer for us. So before Muslims faced Mecca and prayer, for the first half of Islam, they actually faced towards Jerusalem in their prayer.
It was our direction of prayer, and it remained a fundamental part of our faith, fundamental holy sanctuary. There are three sanctuaries in Islam, Mecca, Medina, and Jerusalem, and Masjid al-Aqsa is precious to us. And so you can imagine then the pain of watching innocent Palestinian worshipers being stomped on by Israeli soldiers or skunk water being sprayed on people as they’re trying to walk in, or tear gassing taking place in the nights of Ramadan in that place.
The restrictions on people that live right next to it and that cannot pray in it due to the certain classification of Palestinian that they’ve been given or the age, because, generally speaking, if you’re younger, you’re not allowed to go to Masjid al- Aqsa, even if you live within the occupied territories. So it’s tough to watch such a sacred place with such an ugly occupation. But I’ll also say this, that the sanctity of a human being, the sanctity of just one person is greater than the sanctity of any place of worship to us. So the sanctity of one individual in Gaza or one individual in Jerusalem is greater to us than the sanctity of a place of worship. But it is all certainly interconnected.
Lex Fridman
That’s a really powerful idea. The value of a human being is greater than even the al-Aqsa Mosque. That’s a foundational idea for Islam.
That’s a really powerful idea. The value of a human being is greater than even the al-Aqsa Mosque. That’s a foundational idea for Islam.
Omar Suleiman
The Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, says to the Ka’bah itself that the value of a believer’s dignity and honor is greater than the value of the structure itself. And so when I see a person in Gaza aggressed upon, when I see one [foreign language 02:07:36], when I see one child, that’s greater to me than even al-Aqsa. But al-Aqsa is at the heart of who we are as well. And it’s certainly at the heart of the Palestinian cause. It’s a place of prophets, and it’s a place that should be treated prophetically.
The Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, says to the Ka’bah itself that the value of a believer’s dignity and honor is greater than the value of the structure itself. And so when I see a person in Gaza aggressed upon, when I see one [foreign language 02:07:36], when I see one child, that’s greater to me than even al-Aqsa. But al-Aqsa is at the heart of who we are as well. And it’s certainly at the heart of the Palestinian cause. It’s a place of prophets, and it’s a place that should be treated prophetically.
Lex Fridman
You mentioned to me that since October 7th, a lot of young people in the United States and in general have been showing interest in Islam. First of all, can you explain what you’ve been seeing and experiencing in terms of that trend?
You mentioned to me that since October 7th, a lot of young people in the United States and in general have been showing interest in Islam. First of all, can you explain what you’ve been seeing and experiencing in terms of that trend?
Omar Suleiman
Yeah, we have Quran TikTok trends where you had a few people that went on camera and said, “I’m reading the Quran for the first time.” And I think that that’s the beauty of the faith of the people of Gaza, the beauty of their resilience. When you’re looking at these people living what’s hell on earth, but they’re seeking paradise outside, and they’re able to still be inspired towards words of faith, and determination, and certainty, you’re like, what is their secret? What are they reading? What are they on that allows them to still face this brutality with such grace, right?
Yeah, we have Quran TikTok trends where you had a few people that went on camera and said, “I’m reading the Quran for the first time.” And I think that that’s the beauty of the faith of the people of Gaza, the beauty of their resilience. When you’re looking at these people living what’s hell on earth, but they’re seeking paradise outside, and they’re able to still be inspired towards words of faith, and determination, and certainty, you’re like, what is their secret? What are they reading? What are they on that allows them to still face this brutality with such grace, right?
I mean, they’re not shouting profanities. They’re not shouting words of emptiness or despair, but rather they are pouring out their hearts that are full of faith for the world to see. And I think that a lot of people have seen that and said, what is that? And so we’ve had multiple people come to the mosque. I’ve never seen more people become Muslim in my life, but not just that, but gain an appreciation for Islam. Like, what type of an engineering is there that allows for people to have that type of faith? So people are opening the Quran for the first time. People are asking questions about Islam in a way that shows that they’re inspired, even though they’re heartbroken by what they’re seeing.
Lex Fridman
What’s a good way to get introduced to Islam, the faith, the spiritual experience of it?
What’s a good way to get introduced to Islam, the faith, the spiritual experience of it?
Omar Suleiman
Well, I think, look, you go to our websites, you go to whyislam.org, you come to Yaqeen’s website, yaqeeninstitute.org, you go to multiple Islamic websites to get those questions answered. But there’s nothing like going to a mosque. There’s nothing like actually going to a mosque, and meeting Muslims, and asking questions. And I tell people, you have to step out of your comfort zone and go there and let your world be complicated a bit, experience it, listen to the sermon, meet people from different backgrounds, and ask questions. Muslims love to be asked, by the way, about their faith because they’re so sick of hearing other people talk about it. So Muslims love to be asked about their faith. Palestinians love to be asked about Palestine because they’re so sick of other people talking about it. So ask questions, and you will have them answered. But there’s nothing like a physical connection. There’s nothing like a human connection. So definitely try to reach out to your local Islamic organizations and meet people.
Well, I think, look, you go to our websites, you go to whyislam.org, you come to Yaqeen’s website, yaqeeninstitute.org, you go to multiple Islamic websites to get those questions answered. But there’s nothing like going to a mosque. There’s nothing like actually going to a mosque, and meeting Muslims, and asking questions. And I tell people, you have to step out of your comfort zone and go there and let your world be complicated a bit, experience it, listen to the sermon, meet people from different backgrounds, and ask questions. Muslims love to be asked, by the way, about their faith because they’re so sick of hearing other people talk about it. So Muslims love to be asked about their faith. Palestinians love to be asked about Palestine because they’re so sick of other people talking about it. So ask questions, and you will have them answered. But there’s nothing like a physical connection. There’s nothing like a human connection. So definitely try to reach out to your local Islamic organizations and meet people.
Lex Fridman
How difficult is it to convert to Islam?
How difficult is it to convert to Islam?
Omar Suleiman
It takes 20 seconds, man.
It takes 20 seconds, man.
Lex Fridman
Okay. [inaudible 02:11:07] Simple enough.
Okay. [inaudible 02:11:07] Simple enough.
Omar Suleiman
There’s no pool, there’s no baptism. I often joke with people, I’m like, all right, we got the pool in the back. We’re going to do the baptism now. It’s literally testifying to the oneness of God and testifying that Muhammad is his final messenger. And so that’s called the Shahada. And when you testify to the oneness of God and to the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, being his final prophet, you are accepting what’s known as the six articles of faith. Six articles of faith are belief in one God, belief in the angels, belief in the messengers. So you can’t be a Muslim without believing in Jesus, or Moses, or Abraham, or Muhammad to believe in the messages that God has spoken to humanity through divine revelation. The Quran being the last revelation to believe in the day of Judgment and to believe in divine decree and predestination.
There’s no pool, there’s no baptism. I often joke with people, I’m like, all right, we got the pool in the back. We’re going to do the baptism now. It’s literally testifying to the oneness of God and testifying that Muhammad is his final messenger. And so that’s called the Shahada. And when you testify to the oneness of God and to the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, being his final prophet, you are accepting what’s known as the six articles of faith. Six articles of faith are belief in one God, belief in the angels, belief in the messengers. So you can’t be a Muslim without believing in Jesus, or Moses, or Abraham, or Muhammad to believe in the messages that God has spoken to humanity through divine revelation. The Quran being the last revelation to believe in the day of Judgment and to believe in divine decree and predestination.
So those are six articles of faith. So when you testify to the oneness of God and to the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, being the final messenger. That’s called the Shahada. You embrace the package of those articles of faith. That’s the implication. Then you learn the prayers, learn to fast in Ramadan. You give what’s known as Zakat, the mandatory charity, 2.5% of your retained earnings, and Hajj, which is the pilgrimage to Mecca, if you can. So that’s the growth part, the journey. Once a person takes the testimony, they then grow. It’s really interesting because we always have those people that convert to Islam, like a week before Ramadan or even a day before Ramadan. So you’re Muslim and you got to fast the next day, and that’s always a challenging experience for people, but a fulfilling experience for many people when they embrace Islam at that point. And again, I mean, it’s simple. And I think that the beauty of Islam to many people is in its simplicity, one God, one humanity, one body of prophets, and one community.
Ramadan
Lex Fridman
Because for you as a Palestinian-American this year, the Ramadan perhaps would be especially difficult spiritually. What are you anticipating? What do you think is the difference this year?
Because for you as a Palestinian-American this year, the Ramadan perhaps would be especially difficult spiritually. What are you anticipating? What do you think is the difference this year?
Omar Suleiman
I hope and pray that we have a ceasefire before Ramadan. I hope that at that point we’re rebuilding Gaza, talking about rebuilding Gaza, and helping people that have been damaged in so many different ways. I hope that Ramadan is turning a corner. Every Ramadan, the aggression against the Palestinian people seems to grow. So we’re usually dealing with last the 10 nights of Ramadan, and then the incursions on Masjid al-Aqsa, really sour it for the entire Muslim world because you’re watching worshipers being assaulted in one of the holiest places in the world. And at the same time, you’re trying to find your deep connection, your own deep, holy connection in Ramadan. This time we’re going in, and if this is still ongoing, we are dealing with a continued genocide. So I think that the mood has been somber in the community. The mood has been different from anything I’ve ever seen before. So I anticipate this Ramadan would be different from anything we’ve ever seen before. I think the focus will continue to be on Gaza, and on either stopping the aggression on Gaza, or beginning the rebuilding of Gaza.
I hope and pray that we have a ceasefire before Ramadan. I hope that at that point we’re rebuilding Gaza, talking about rebuilding Gaza, and helping people that have been damaged in so many different ways. I hope that Ramadan is turning a corner. Every Ramadan, the aggression against the Palestinian people seems to grow. So we’re usually dealing with last the 10 nights of Ramadan, and then the incursions on Masjid al-Aqsa, really sour it for the entire Muslim world because you’re watching worshipers being assaulted in one of the holiest places in the world. And at the same time, you’re trying to find your deep connection, your own deep, holy connection in Ramadan. This time we’re going in, and if this is still ongoing, we are dealing with a continued genocide. So I think that the mood has been somber in the community. The mood has been different from anything I’ve ever seen before. So I anticipate this Ramadan would be different from anything we’ve ever seen before. I think the focus will continue to be on Gaza, and on either stopping the aggression on Gaza, or beginning the rebuilding of Gaza.
Lex Fridman
So a general heaviness permeates just your prayers and your thoughts throughout this?
So a general heaviness permeates just your prayers and your thoughts throughout this?
Omar Suleiman
Yeah, I mean, look, every sermon I’ve given since October 7th has had to have some inclusion of this because it’s what’s on everyone’s hearts and minds. We also have people in our communities that have lost 20, 30, 40 people in our midst. It’s not the same. If we start to have refugees or people that escape for medical treatment or that are able to get out through Egypt and join their families. It’s becoming more real, right? It’s becoming more personal for people. So I think that Ramadan will surround both in terms of messaging as well as community, the pain of the moment with a prayer for hope and healing.
Yeah, I mean, look, every sermon I’ve given since October 7th has had to have some inclusion of this because it’s what’s on everyone’s hearts and minds. We also have people in our communities that have lost 20, 30, 40 people in our midst. It’s not the same. If we start to have refugees or people that escape for medical treatment or that are able to get out through Egypt and join their families. It’s becoming more real, right? It’s becoming more personal for people. So I think that Ramadan will surround both in terms of messaging as well as community, the pain of the moment with a prayer for hope and healing.
Lex Fridman
Not to put you on the spot, but in your sermons, in your private life, what is the passage in the Quran that is one you find yourself returning to often?
Not to put you on the spot, but in your sermons, in your private life, what is the passage in the Quran that is one you find yourself returning to often?
Omar Suleiman
The part of the Quran, I get asked this question, that resonates with me most usually has to do with what is heaviest for me at the moment. There is a verse in the chapter of Mary, a part of the verse, [foreign language 02:16:42]. Your Lord does not forget. Your Lord does not forget. And so, as you see what’s transpiring right now, our hope is not in creation, our hope is in our Creator. And our hope is not in this life, our hope is in the afterlife. And so that verse deeply resonates because I think that many of us often wonder how are they going to build? How are they going to get past this? And we know that God has a way of restoring everything. God will restore everything, if not in this life, then in the next.
The part of the Quran, I get asked this question, that resonates with me most usually has to do with what is heaviest for me at the moment. There is a verse in the chapter of Mary, a part of the verse, [foreign language 02:16:42]. Your Lord does not forget. Your Lord does not forget. And so, as you see what’s transpiring right now, our hope is not in creation, our hope is in our Creator. And our hope is not in this life, our hope is in the afterlife. And so that verse deeply resonates because I think that many of us often wonder how are they going to build? How are they going to get past this? And we know that God has a way of restoring everything. God will restore everything, if not in this life, then in the next.
Lex Fridman
So there’s an eternal flame of hope that burns there.
So there’s an eternal flame of hope that burns there.
Omar Suleiman
Yeah, and the people of Gaza have it. The people of Gaza have it. You can be more easily deluded by this material world if you’re hostage to it. But the people of Gaza have never been deluded by the material world because they never really had it. They’ve always been attached to a greater idea, to a greater place. And so it is part of the secret ingredient that they have, that they believe in something greater than this. And so you can’t survive hell on earth unless you believe in paradise outside of it.
Yeah, and the people of Gaza have it. The people of Gaza have it. You can be more easily deluded by this material world if you’re hostage to it. But the people of Gaza have never been deluded by the material world because they never really had it. They’ve always been attached to a greater idea, to a greater place. And so it is part of the secret ingredient that they have, that they believe in something greater than this. And so you can’t survive hell on earth unless you believe in paradise outside of it.
Hope for the future
Lex Fridman
When you look far into the future, 20, 30, 40 years from now, we’re doing another podcast, and 80s and 90-years-old, what do you hope to see in the Middle East? What do you hope to see change in the Middle East and the United States as a people, as a set of policies, cultures, nations?
When you look far into the future, 20, 30, 40 years from now, we’re doing another podcast, and 80s and 90-years-old, what do you hope to see in the Middle East? What do you hope to see change in the Middle East and the United States as a people, as a set of policies, cultures, nations?
Omar Suleiman
I think that the nation-state model and nationalism are becoming so unsustainable just with the growth of refugee populations, desperate refugee populations. The rise of, unfortunately, fanaticism and fascism in different parts of the world, climate, and all that that presents to us in terms of displacement. We’re going to have to figure out how to function as a world rather than as nations and states. We’re going to have to figure out how to not see everyone outside of our borders as threats and people that are different from us within our borders as threats. We’re going to have to start seeing people as people. And so my hope would be that we would have made people uncomfortable enough to transcend some of the barriers in their hearts and some of the barriers that we have in the world that don’t allow us to see other people as people. And then that drives horrific policies towards people that are so distant from us.
I think that the nation-state model and nationalism are becoming so unsustainable just with the growth of refugee populations, desperate refugee populations. The rise of, unfortunately, fanaticism and fascism in different parts of the world, climate, and all that that presents to us in terms of displacement. We’re going to have to figure out how to function as a world rather than as nations and states. We’re going to have to figure out how to not see everyone outside of our borders as threats and people that are different from us within our borders as threats. We’re going to have to start seeing people as people. And so my hope would be that we would have made people uncomfortable enough to transcend some of the barriers in their hearts and some of the barriers that we have in the world that don’t allow us to see other people as people. And then that drives horrific policies towards people that are so distant from us.
Lex Fridman
You have been fearless in walking through the fire. What gives you strength psychologically to keep going, to speak out, but just also maintain an optimism and a hope for the future?
You have been fearless in walking through the fire. What gives you strength psychologically to keep going, to speak out, but just also maintain an optimism and a hope for the future?
Omar Suleiman
I don’t believe that anyone gives me success or causes me failure without the permission of God. I don’t seek fuel from anyone else. I don’t seek hope from anyone else. I believe in a creator that has a greater plan, and I want to be a greater part of that plan. And I’m inspired by the resilience of the people of Gaza. I’m inspired by the resilience of my parents, and our grandparents, and Palestinians around the world that have refused to succumb to their erasure, that have refused to give up. And so we have both the energy that we need and we have the examples that we need. The energy is from above. The examples are all around us.
I don’t believe that anyone gives me success or causes me failure without the permission of God. I don’t seek fuel from anyone else. I don’t seek hope from anyone else. I believe in a creator that has a greater plan, and I want to be a greater part of that plan. And I’m inspired by the resilience of the people of Gaza. I’m inspired by the resilience of my parents, and our grandparents, and Palestinians around the world that have refused to succumb to their erasure, that have refused to give up. And so we have both the energy that we need and we have the examples that we need. The energy is from above. The examples are all around us.
Lex Fridman
Well, Omar Imam, this is a huge honor to once again speak with you. And I just want to say thank you, not just for this, but for many private notes you have sent me of kindness, and support, and love through some of the low points, as silly as they are for me personally. So it’s just great to be able to call you a friend and to be able to have you in my corner. I’m forever grateful to you for that.
Well, Omar Imam, this is a huge honor to once again speak with you. And I just want to say thank you, not just for this, but for many private notes you have sent me of kindness, and support, and love through some of the low points, as silly as they are for me personally. So it’s just great to be able to call you a friend and to be able to have you in my corner. I’m forever grateful to you for that.
Omar Suleiman
I appreciate it. Thank you so much, man.
I appreciate it. Thank you so much, man.
Lex Fridman
And thank you for talking today. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Omar Suleiman. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you some words from Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. “We shall overcome because the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
And thank you for talking today. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Omar Suleiman. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you some words from Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. “We shall overcome because the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Ben Shapiro vs Destiny Debate: Politics, Jan 6, Israel, Ukraine & Wokeism | Lex Fridman Podcast #410
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #410 with Ben Shapiro vs Destiny Debate.
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Table of Contents
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Ben, you’re conservative. Destiny, you’re a liberal. Can you each describe what key values underpin your philosophy on politics and maybe life in the context of this left to right political spectrum? You want to go first?
So a lot of governmental discussions on a pragmatic level end up being discussions about where government ought to be involved, but also at what level government ought to be involved. And I have an incredibly subsidiary view of government. I think that local governments, because you have higher levels of homogeneity and consent are capable of doing more things. And as you abstract up the chain, it becomes more and more impractical and more and more divisive to do more things.
In my view, government is basically there to preserve certain key liberties. Those key liberties pre-exist the government insofar as they’re more important than what priorities the government has. The job of government is to maintain, for example, national defense, protection of property rights, protection of religious freedom. These are the key focuses of government as generally expressed in the Bill of Rights and the Constitution. And I agree with the general philosophy of the Bill of Rights and the Constitution.
Now, that doesn’t mean by the way, that you can’t do more on a governmental level again as you get closer to the ground, which by the way is also embedded in the Constitution. People forget the Constitution was originally applied to the federal government, not to local and state government. But if I were going to define conservatism, it would actually be a little broader than that because I think to understand how people interact with government, you have to go to core values.
And so for me, there are a couple of premises. One, human beings have a nature. That nature is neither good nor bad. We have aspects of goodness and we have aspects of badness. Human beings are sinful. We have temptations. What that means is that we have to be careful not to incentivize the bad and that we should incentivize the good. Human beings do have agency and are capable of making decisions in the vast majority of circumstances. And it’s better for society if we act as though they do.
Second, the basic idea of human nature. There is an idea in my view that all human beings have equal value before the law. I’m a religious person, so I’d say equal value before God. But I think that’s also sort of a key tenet of Western civilization being non-religious or religious, that every individual has equivalent value in sort of cosmic terms.
But that does not necessarily mean that every person is equally equipped to do everything equally well. And so it is not the job of government to rectify every imbalance of life. The quest for cosmic justice, as Thomas Sowell suggests, is something that government is generally incapable of doing, and more often than not, botches and makes things worse. So those are a few key tenets and that tends to materialize in a variety of ways. The easiest way to sum that up would the traditional kind of three legs of the conservative stool, although now obviously there’s a very fragmented conservative movement in the United States would be a socially conservative view in which family is the chief institution of society, like the little platoons of society as Edmund Burke suggested, in which free markets and property rights are extraordinarily valuable and necessary because every individual has the ability to be creative with their property and to freely alienate that property.
Finally, I tend toward a hawkish foreign policy that suggests that the world is not filled with wonderful people who all agree with us and think like us. And those people will pursue adversarial interests if we do not protect our own interests.
Personally, I did 12 years of Catholic private education. However, the public schools in Nebraska, depending on where you lived, were very, very, very good. I opted for a certain district, I bought a house there, I moved there, and then my son was able to go to those schools. And he’s been going through those schools and the difference of availability of technology, these kids are taking home iPads in first grade. They’ve got huge computer labs and everything. Do you think that there is some type of, I don’t want to say injustice or unfairness because not even looking at it that way, just pragmatically that there might be children that are in certain schools that if they just had better funding or more access to technologies or things available to them, that those kids would become more productive members of society that would like a little bit of a help that they could actually achieve more and do better for all of society?
So when you say, if we could give every kid an iPad, would you give every kid an iPad? The question is not, if I had a replicator machine from Star Trek, would I give everybody an enormous amount of stuff? Sure, I would. Every resource is fine. It every resource is limited, and you have to prioritize what are the outcomes that you seek in terms of the means with which you are seeking them.
And so, again, I think that the question is… I quibble with the premise of the question, which is that, again, the chief injustice when it comes to education on the list of injustices is lack of availability to technology or that it’s a funding problem. I just don’t think that’s the case.
Now, I agree that neither of these things might be determinative in, well, 20% of kids were graduating and now 80% of kids are graduating. Or these kids are all going with their GEDs into the workforce, and now these kids are all suddenly becoming engineers. But in terms of where we can help, do you think there should be some minimum threshold or minimum baseline of… At the very least, every school should have a non-leaky gym or every school should have… If children can’t afford lunch or breakfast like some sort of food provided or every school should have these baseline things?
I think that you’re starting at a second order question, which is what if we ignore what I would think are the big primary questions of education, namely family structure, value of education at home. How much you have parents who are capable or willing to help with homework? What are the incentive structures we can set up for a society that actually facilitate that? How local communities take ownership of their schools is a big one, right?
All of these issues we’re ignoring in favor of, say, “Air conditioning or lunch programs.” And so in a vacuum, if you say air conditioning and lunch programs sounds great in a vacuum. In terms of prioritization of values and cost structure, are those the things that I think are going to move the needle in a major way in terms of public policy? I do not. And in fact, I think that many of them end up being disproportionate wastes of money. I’ve talked before pretty controversially about the fact that an enormous amount of school lunch programs are thrown out.
An enormous amount of that food ends up in the garbage can. Is there a better way to do that? If there is a better way to do it, then I’m perfectly willing to hear about that better way to do it. But it seems to me that one of the big flaws in the way that many people of the left approach government is what if we hit every gnat with a hammer? And my question is, what if the gnat isn’t even the problem? What if there is a much bigger substructure problem that needs to be solved in order to… If you’re shifting deck chairs on the Titanic, sure, you can make the Titanic slightly more balanced because the deck chairs are slightly better oriented. But the real question is the water that’s gaping into the Titanic, right?
I think that these two things are probably huge things that are moving us off of shotgun marriages or getting married very early on, and I don’t see… Do you think that those two things are going to change fundamentally?
All that is wonderful. When it comes to the actual problem of education, what I object to in the political sphere, and this happens all the time, is everybody is arguing on top of the iceberg about how we can move the needle 0.5 percentage points as opposed to the entire iceberg melting beneath them. And we just ignore that and we pretend that that’s just sort of the natural consequence of thing. The arc of history suggests that people are never going to get married again.
Well, I mean, actually what the arc of history suggests realistically speaking is that the people who are not getting married are not going to be having kids. And what it also suggests, the people who are married are going to be having kids. So the demographic profile actually over time is rather going to shift toward people who are having lots and lots of kids. I’m married, I have four kids. Everyone in my community is married. That’s like minimum buy-in my community is four kids.
So what’s happening actually in terms of demographics is that the people who are more religious and getting married are having more kids. And so if you’re talking about the arc of history shifting toward marriage, I would suggest that actually demographically over time, long periods of time, not over one generation, over long periods of time, the only cure for low birth rate is going to be the people who get married and have lots of kids.
I’m not going to disagree with you on any of that. All of that is true. It’s just frustrating that sometimes when you bring up any problem, all of it will circle back to other things that makes it seem like we can’t make any progress in any area without fixing something [inaudible 00:20:10]
It’s a matter of incentive structures, not per se morality, because incentive structures do have moral underpinnings. There’s such a thing as… For example, if you’re going to use a welfare program, you have to decide how effective it is to what crowd. It applies where the cutoffs are. Does it disincentivize work, does it not? All of these are pragmatic concerns. But on a moral level, the generalized objection that I have to people on the left side of the aisle is that they like to focus… In these conversations very often it feels as though it’s a conversation with people who are drunk, searching under the lamp for their keys. The problems they want to look at are the problems that are solvable by government, and then all the problems they don’t want to look at, which are the actual giant monsters lurking in the dark and not particularly solvable by government are the ones they want to ignore and assume are just the natural state of things. And I don’t think that’s correct at all.
When it comes to the economy, I think that Trump’s economic record was better than Biden’s. Doesn’t mean he didn’t overspend. He did. He wildly overspent. But he also had a very solid record of job creation. A huge percentage of the gains in the economy went to people on the lower end of the economic spectrum. Actually, the gross income to the average American was about $6,000 during his term. The unemployment rates were very, very low before COVID.
I think that you almost have to separate the Trump administration into sort of before COVID and during COVID, because COVID obviously is a black swan event, the most signal change in politics in our lifetime. And so governance during COVID is almost its own category, which we can discuss. But in terms of foreign policy, in terms of domestic policy, I think that Trump was significantly better than Biden has been. And that’s on the upside for Trump.
On the downside, for Biden, obviously you’re talking 40 or highs in inflation. You’re talking about savings being eaten away. You’re talking about everything being 20 to 30% more expensive. You’re talking about massive increases to the deficit, even at a rate that was unknown under Trump. The deficit under Trump raised by about a little under a trillion dollars every year up until 2020. Again, 2020 was COVID year, so everybody decided that we’re going to fire hose money at things.
But then Joe Biden continued to fire hose money at things in ’21, ’22, and ’23. That obviously is, in my opinion, bad economic policy. And then you get to the rhetoric, and you get to the stuff that Donald Trump says. As I’ve said before, my view is that on Donald Trump’s epitaph, on his gravestone, it will say, “Donald Trump. He’s said a lot of shit.” I think that Donald Trump does say a lot of things. I think that that is basically baked into the cake, which is why everyone who’s bewildered by the polls is ignoring human nature, which is at the beginning when you see something very shocking, it’s very shocking.
And then if you see it over and over and over, and over for years on end, it is no longer shocking. It’s just part of the background noise like tinnitus. It just becomes something that your brain adjusts for. And so do I like a lot of Donald Trump’s rhetoric? No, and I never have. Do I think that that is dispositive as to his presidency? No, I do not. When it comes to Biden, again, I think he’s underperforming economically. I think that his foreign policy has been really a problem.
Even the things I think he’s done right are, I think, band- aids for things that he created by doing wrong. And when it comes to his own rhetoric, you can argue that it’s grading on a curve because Trump was coming in with such wild rhetoric that just a maintenance of that wild rhetoric doesn’t really change again the baseline. For Biden, he came in the same way that Obama did on the soaring rhetoric of American unity.
Trump came in and he is like, “Listen, I’m the president for what I am, and I’m going to say the things I want to say. I’m beyond the toilet and I’m tweeting.” We’re like, “Okay, that’s what it is.” With Biden, he came in with, “I’m a president for all Americans. I’m trying to unify everybody.” And that pretty quickly broke down into a lot of oppositional language about his political opponents in particular, an attempt to lump in, for example, huge swaths of the conservative movement with the people who participated, for example, in January 6th, or who were fans of January 6th, and the sort of lumping in of everybody into MAGA Republicans who wasn’t personally signed on to an infrastructure bill with him.
That sort of stuff I think has been truly terrible. I thought his Philadelphia speech was truly terrible. And again, I think that you do have the problem of he is no longer capable of certainly rhetorically unifying the country when every speech from him feels like watching Nik Wallenda walk across a volcano on a tightrope. It really is like you’re just sort of waiting for him to fall.
I mean, it’s sad to say. I mean, the other day he was speaking for what was, in effect, his campaign kickoff, and this was in Valley Forge. I mean, Jill rushed up there. As soon as he was done, Jill rushed up there like she’d been shot out of a cannon to come and try and guide him away so he didn’t become the Shane Gillis Roomba. And that’s not really… Let’s put it this way. It does not quiet the soul to watch Joe Biden rhetorically. Again, that’s a different problem than Trump’s problem, but that’s my analysis.
Even recently, I think the Secretary of Defense Esper and John Kelly, the chief of staff were saying, “I think Trump is a threat to democracy.” You’ve got all of his prior people that were around him, some of his closest allies. You’ve got Bill Barr that won’t co-sign a single thing that he says. You’ve got all these people that he used to work with that all say, “Trump is a horrible, evil person. He’s ineffective as a leader. He doesn’t accomplish anything.” And he didn’t.
To say that Biden has failed at bipartisanship when we’ve gotten the CHIPS Act, we’ve gotten the IRA, we’ve gotten the ARP, we’ve gotten the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill, when we’ve gotten all this major legislation that is working in this historically divided Congress as opposed to Trump that got us tax cuts and deficit spending. I don’t understand where we ever are in this world where Biden is somehow-
Trump is like the most divisive president I think we’ve ever had, at least in my lifetime of being an American citizen. And the rhetoric from him is just, it’s on a whole other level in terms of the demonization of political opponents. I mean, this is a guy that’s known for giving his political opponents bad nicknames, right? That’s what Trump does.
It’s funny, but even as a resident of Florida, if Florida had another natural disaster, do you think Trump would withhold aid because you had… I think that was one of the few nice things that DeSantis actually said about Biden was that like, “Hey, listen, when the buildings collapsed in I think was Miami Beach.”
In terms of the economy. I do think it’s funny that Republicans are very keen to say that, “Well, we can’t really grade Trump post-COVID” because obviously, COVID messed everything up, which is fair. But pre-COVID, what did Trump do? He did deficit spending tax cuts. He presided over historical low interest rates and an economy that was already like blazing past the final years of Obama. We were posting all time highs in all the stock markets in 2013 onwards. Unemployment rates were falling. Now under Biden, unemployment rates are even lower than they were under Trump. But it sucks that for Trump, we can say, “Well, we can’t really hold him accountable for 2020. That was COVID.”
Well, all we have for Biden is post-COVID. We don’t have any pre-COVID Biden economy. And it was the same thing for Obama too, coming in right after the housing collapse as well. And it sucks that Republicans are able to walk out of office having burned the entire American society to the ground economically. And now, we’ve got to try to evaluate, “Okay, well, what did Obama do during his first two to three to four years just trying to recover from where the housing crash left it.” And then we look at Biden now who’s trying to recover from COVID and now we’re grading him on a totally different scale than what Trump is being graded on. Yeah, that sucks, I think. We can go into-
I think that being said, I think that Biden has done a phenomenal job when it comes to foreign policy. I think that the coalition building was so important for Ukraine, Russia, and I’m so happy that he decided to go to our European allies and our NATO allies and try to build a coalition of people to help Ukraine, so that that wasn’t only the United States.
Personally, especially after doing a whole bunch of research, I do tend to side with Israel over Palestine in a lot of the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. I’m glad that Biden, while remaining a staunch defender of Israel, is trying to rein in some of the more aggressive posturing towards the Palestinians and the Gaza Strip. I’m proud that Biden said, “Hey, listen, we are going to delay some of these attacks. Hey, listen, we are going to allow humanitarian aid here. Hey, listen, we are going to try to not kill as many Palestinian people down there” while still signaling that he would be a staunch supporter of Israel in the conflict, assuming the civilian casualties don’t go too high.
For foreign policy, I mean, blemishes, I mean, the biggest one you can give to Biden is Afghanistan and the pull-out there. But man, are we going to talk about the Inspector General report that says that one of the biggest reasons why the Afghanistan pull-out was so disastrous was because of the Doha Accords where Donald Trump headed talks that didn’t even include the Afghanistan army. I mean, these were disasters. When Biden took office, we had 2,500 troops left in Afghanistan. What was the options even afforded to Biden at that point?
Obviously, you’ve got the abandonment of the Kurds in Northern Syria for the Turkish armies to lay waste to. You’re talking about Iran and North Korea, although I’m not sure where Ben would land on those, but yeah, that’s a broadly [inaudible 00:34:11].
So when we’re comparing these things, I don’t think they’re leagues apart in terms of the divisive effects of what they say, right? And I’m separating that off from the inherent content of what they say because obviously, what Trump says is more divisive just on the raw level. I mean, if he’s insulting people as opposed to Joe Biden doing MAGA Republicans, if I were to just… if I were an alien come down from space and look at these two statements, I’d say this one’s more divisive than this one. But then, there’s the reality of being a human being in the world and that is everyone has baked Donald Trump into the cake. And Joe Biden, again, started off with a patina of being non-divisive and now has emerged as divisive.
If you don’t mind, I actually want to get to the foreign policy questions because this one is actually slightly less interesting to me.
I want to ask a couple of questions on the foreign policy. Sure.
What that did is incentivize terrorism from Iran. What we’re watching in the Middle East is Iran attempting to use every one of its terror proxies in the Middle East and it was specifically launched in an attempt to avoid what Biden actually was trying to do, which was good, which was after two years of failure with Saudi Arabia, try to bring them into the Abraham Accords, right? That was what was burgeoning at the end of last year and Iran saw that and Iran decided that they were going to throw grenade into the middle of those negotiations by essentially activating Hamas. Hamas activates. Hamas commits October 7th. Israel, as a sovereign nation state, has to respond to the murder of 1,200 of its citizens in the taking, kidnapping of 240. Israel has to do that not only to go after its own hostages and try to restore them, but also to reestablish military deterrence in the most violent region of the world.
Hezbollah gets active on Israel’s northern border. Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy. They get active on the northern border. The Houthis in Yemen get active. The only reason all this is happening at the same time is because Iran is doing this, right?
However, I don’t know if the path forward is constantly being a belligerent to Iran or trying to figure out some road to normalcy. I don’t know if the collapse of Iran or the destruction of that country, considering how unpopular the Ayatollah even is there. The citizens of Iran, I don’t think, are big supporters of the government there. I feel like moving on a path where, let’s do our nuclear inspections. We had that Iranian nuclear deal that Trump pulled out of. Let’s do the nuclear inspections. Make sure you’re not on the way to nuclear weapons. Let’s unfree some funds. Let’s move in some direction where we get on a good term with you. I feel like that’s the most important thing that needs to happen in the Middle East. As much as people like to look at the Abraham Accords, who cares if… what was it? Bahrain, I think Oman. I think [inaudible 00:51:10].
In any case, Yoav Galant was urging in the very early days of the war that Israel should turn North and instead of hitting Hamas, they should actually take the opportunity to knock Hezbollah out because Hezbollah is significantly more dangerous to the existence of the state of Israel than Hamas. I actually agree with that. As far as what Israel has been doing wrong in the actual war, I mean, I think that, again, from an American perspective, I think that Israel is doing pretty well from an Israeli perspective via Israeli. I would actually want Israel to be less loose about sending its soldiers in on the ground level. So Israel’s attempting to minimize civilian casualties, and the cost of that has been the high.
And that complacence bred what happened on October 7th. So to me, what Israel did wrong was years and years and years of complacence and belief in an Oslo System that is at root a failure because you cannot make a peace agreement with people who do not want to make peace with you. So that’s what I think Israel is doing wrong. I have a feeling that there’s going to be wide divergence on this point.
However, one area where I’ll break with, Ben, is I think that minimizing civilian casualties and everything is very, very, very important I think on the Israeli side. I don’t think it’s important so that the US will stay with them because I think the US is probably going to stick with Israel as long as they’re not doing anything crazy, and I don’t even think it matters for the international community. It definitely doesn’t matter for the UN because Jesus Christ. However, I think it’s really, really, really important that… I think that in the Middle East, broadly speaking, I think that leadership, especially in the Gulf, has gotten over the Palestinian issue.
I think that leadership is kind of like they don’t care as much anymore, but the populations still care quite a bit. And I think that the main issue that Israel could run into is if the civilian death toll does climb too high, and if they start to hit this 40, 50, 60,000 number of civilian casualties, they run the risk of the civilian populations in the surrounding Middle Eastern states becoming so antagonistic towards Israel that they start to take steps back towards normalization in the region.
So for instance, I know that Bahrain, I think, already pulled out their ambassador to Israel. My guess is going to be it’s temporary. I know that on the public speaking side, you’ve got a lot of people condemning Israel for the attacks. And on the private side, you’ve got people telling Israel, “Please kill all of Hamas because this is untenable and nobody wants to work in this situation.” I don’t know if this ended up being true or not. I’m guessing it didn’t, but I saw on a couple of Twitter accounts, it was leaked that potentially, Saudi Arabia was considering installing a government in the West Bank that they would run.
Yeah, I think that Israel, what I would say to be, quote, unquote, “critical” of Israel is Israel needs to take strong steps towards peace that probably involves them enduring some undue hardship. So not the October 7th attacks, because Jesus, that’s way too much, but other types of attacks that they might have to deal with that might cause some civilians to die that they don’t come out over the top with and retaliate with if there’s ever going to be peace in that region. However, another thing that I’ve always said is a huge problem between Israel and Palestine is I think that both sides think that if they continue to fight, it will be good for them. But the problem is one side is delusional. I think Israel wants to continue to fight because they get justifications for the annexation of the Golan Heights. They get justifications for expansions, especially in the Area C that, I think, they’re probably going to try to annex soon. They get justifications for the increased military posturing towards the Gaza Strip and the embargoes.
And Israel is right that if the conflict continues, really, the situation only improves for Israel over time. But the Palestinians also all believe that if they keep fighting, they thought this since 2000 under Arafat, that if they just keep fighting, they’ll get better gains too. But that’s not the case.
But to combat that problem is like you have to get the UN on board, we’ve got to do an actual addressing of the Palestinian refugee problem, which is handled like a joke right now. Iran has to be brought to the table in terms of negotiations. There has to be huge efforts made to economically revitalize these Palestinian areas. Even though they’re one of the highest recipients of aid in the world. You have to do something about the embargo and the blockade and the Gaza Strip, which isn’t just maintained by Israel, it’s also maintained by Egypt. You should ask why. Yeah, there’s a lot of things that have to happen to fix that problem. But the reality is I don’t think Israel really wants to because they get to continue their expansion into the West Bank, and I don’t think anybody around the world really cares that much because in a month, we won’t be talking [inaudible 01:04:36].
And the question as to whether if Israel stopped building, there’ve been many settlement freeze in the past, including some undertaken by Netanyahu, and it actually has not done one iota of good in moving the ball forward in terms of actual negotiations. Again, the biggest problem is that the leadership for Palestinians has spent every day since, really, ’67. It’s not even ’48. Because between ’48 and ’67, Jordan was in charge of the West Bank and Egypt was in charge of the Gaza Strip. And at no point did either of those powers say, “Hey, maybe we ought to hand this over to an independent Palestinian state.” Which was originally the division that was promoted by the UN Partition Plan in ’47. Because of that, the leadership post ’67, and really, starting in ’64, the Palestine Liberation Organization was founded in ’64, and it called for the liberation of the land in ’64. They had the West Bank and they had the Gaza Strip. So they’re talking about Tel Aviv.
When it was founded in ’64, the basic idea, as kind of indicated by that, was Israel will not exist, and that was a promise that’s been made by pretty much every Palestinian leader in Arabic to the people that they are talking to. Yasser Arafat famously would do this sort of thing. He’d speak in English and talk about how he wanted a two-state solution, and then he’d go back to his own people and say, “This is a Trojan Horse and we’re going to…” If Israel could, if you think that Israeli parents want to send their kids at the age of 18 to go and monitor Jenin and Nablus and be in Khan Yunis, you’re out of your mind. You’re out of your mind. Israelis do not want that. In fact, Israelis didn’t want that so much that they allowed rockets to fall in their cities for full on 18 years in order to avoid sending soldiers en masse back into the Gaza Strip.
The magic, magic is a strong word… The benefit of the Abraham Accords was proof of what you’re saying, which is true, which is that all of these surrounding countries, in reality, have abandoned the idea that there’s a centrality to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. That is not the central conflict in the Middle East. And by the way, one of the reasons it’s not the central conflict in the Middle East is because actually, ironically, because of the rise of Iran. It’s SUNY states that are largely signing up with Israel because they’re realizing they need some sort of counterweight to a burgeoning nuclear power in Iran.
Now, the reality is that the US’ interests had largely been achieved in the first few months of the war, meaning the revocation of the ability of Russia to take Ukraine and just ingest it. And two, the devastation of Russia’s military capability. I mean, Russia has just been wrecked. I mean, the military is in serious straits because of the war in Ukraine. From an American perspective, I’m very much pro all of that. I think that we have an interest in Ukraine maintaining a buffer status against a territorially aggressive Russia. I think that the United States does have an interest in degrading the Russian military to the extent that it can’t threaten the Baltic states or threaten Kazakhstan or other countries in the region. The problem I have with Biden’s strategy is as always, I think that it’s a muddle, and I think muddles tend to end with misperceptions.
War tends to break out and maintain because of misperception, misperception of the other side’s strength, the other side’s intentions, and all of the rest. People misperceive what’s going to happen. They say, “I’ll cross that line and nothing will happen.” This is what Putin thought. He thought, “I’ll cross that line. They’ll greet me as a liberator. And because the United States just surrendered in Afghanistan, essentially, they won’t do anything, and the West is fragmenting because NATO’s fragmenting and all the rest of this.” And obviously, he was wrong on all of those scores.
The problem for Biden is that as with virtually every war, no end line was set. And so it became out recently that it was widely reported that actually there was a peace deal that was on the table in the first few months that Putin was on board with that basically would’ve seeded Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea to Russia in return for solidification of those lines. American and Western security guarantees to Ukraine, right? Ukraine wouldn’t formally join NATO, but there would be security guarantees to Ukraine. We’re ending up there anyway. It’s just taking a lot more money and a lot more time to get there.
Instead, what Biden said, and this was reported in the Washington Post last year, the Biden administration said, “We’re going to fight for as long as it takes with as much as it takes.” And when they were asked until when, they said, “Whatever Zelenskyy says.” And that’s not a policy, that’s just a recipe for a frozen conflict with endless funding. Now, it may be that Putin has walked away from the table and that deal is no longer available. If that deal is available right now, I certainly hope that’s being pursued behind closed doors. My main critique again of Biden is that when you outsource the end goal to another country without stating what America’s interest is, that’s a problem. I also think that Biden did really quite a poor job of sort of explaining what America’s realistic interests are. I don’t like it when American leaders… It’s weird for me to say this, but I’m not a huge fan of the we’re in it to protect democracy kind of rhetoric because frankly, we are allied with many, many countries that are not democracies, and that’s not actually how foreign policy works.
We should, as an overall 30,000-foot goal, advance democracy and rights where we can, but the reason that we were fighting in favor of Ukraine, and when I say fighting, I mean giving them money and giving them weaponry, the reason that we were doing that in favor of Ukraine is not because of Ukraine’s long history of clean voting and non-corruption. The reason that we were doing that is to counter Russian interest in the region. I mean, it was a pure, real politic play, and that real politic play is hard to deny no matter what side of the aisle you’re on. I think that what many Americans are going to, are reverting to is we have no interest there. Why are we spending the money there and not spending the money here? And that kind of stuff. And that argument can always be applied unless you actually articulate the reason why it is good for Americans beyond simply the ideological for the United States to be involved in a thing.
So for example, I think right now, when Biden is taught, I think that what Biden just did, the United States as we speak, is striking the Houthis. I think that that’s a really, really good thing. I think that’s a necessary thing, and I think American people should understand why that is happening. It’s not because of, quote, unquote, “ideology”. It is, I mean, on a very root level, but really, it’s because you’re screwing up the straits. I mean, you can’t do that. You can’t screw up free trade, and Americans have an interest in not seeing all of our prices at the grocery store double and triple because a bunch of ragtag pirates akin to the Barbary pirates from 1800 are bothering everyone. Right?
My feeling would be, and this is just a feeling, I don’t know if internal cables have leaked that say otherwise, is the Biden administration has probably always had a quiet position of at some point, there’s going to be an off-ramp here, and I think even a month or two ago, I think those talks were being leaked, that discussion had begun with Zelenskyy looking for an off-ramp. But publicly, of course, the United States is never going to come out and say, “We are going to support you guys to fight as much as you want for three months. And then after that, it’s no more.” Obviously, that can’t be the statement. It’s always going to be that, “We’re going to support you in your fight against Russia [inaudible 01:19:28].”
I think that even for a lot of military people and analysts around the world, that that was an expectation or at least a significant probability. Nobody knew, the phrase that’s thrown right now is paper tiger, that Russia’s military was as ill-equipped as they were. So I can understand why, especially if you’re Ukraine and if you’ve repelled an invasion from one of the world’s largest armies, why you might feel like, “Well, fuck it, let’s fight for a few months. Let’s fight for a year. Let’s see what happens.” And I can understand the United States supporting them, but I agree that there has to be some reasonable off-ramp, but we’re not going to fight forever. I think the US State Department has already begun those conversations with Zelenskyy to look at what that off-ramp looks like. But yeah, I’m not too sure other than explicitly stating publicly you can only fight until this date. I don’t really know what else I would… I don’t think the Biden administration should have done that. I don’t know what else-
And then on the day of January 6th, trying to capitalize on the violence by him, Giuliani, and Eastman making phone calls to senators and congressmen saying, “Well, don’t you think maybe you guys should delay the vote a little bit? Don’t you think they’re just really mad about the election?” I think he said to McCarthy, “They’re more upset than you.” And his utter dereliction of duty and not doing anything to stop the rioting that happened on January 6th because he was too busy taking advantage of it, I think all of these things are horrible. I look forward to seeing the Jack Smith indictments play out in court, maybe even the Georgia RICO case. But yeah, I think all of these things are unfathomable, and I think when you look at the plot from start to finish, clearly, the goal the entire time was to circumvent the peaceful transfer of power. That was the goal from start to finish, whether it was through false claims, whether it was through illegal schemes, or whether it was through violence at the Capitol to delay the certification of the vote.
When it comes to incitement, it has to be incitement to immediate lawless action. That’s the standard for incitement. And I’m very meticulous in how I use this because I happen to speak publicly a lot, and that means there are lots of people who listen to me, which means some of those people are probably crazy and some of them may go and do a crazy thing. Did I incite them? The media tends to use the word incitement very loosely with regard to this sort of stuff, in the same way that Bernie Sanders, quote, unquote, “incited” the congressional baseball shooting. He did not. Bernie Sanders has a lot of things I disagree with. I think Bernie’s a schmuck, doesn’t matter. He did not incite that.
So saying bad things is not the same thing as inciting violence. Inciting violence, the legal standard in the United States is, I want you to go punch that guy in the face. That’s inciting. With regard to insurrection, typically, in insurrection, and there are some descriptions in case law, though none in statutory law as far as [inaudible 01:26:50]. The typical description in case law is the replacement of one legitimate government of the United States with another by violent means. The notion that Donald Trump coordinated any such insurrection is belied by the FBI itself. The FBI put out a report in, I believe it was…
And then again, the claim that January 6th itself was an insurrection… I’m not aware that anyone was charged with actual insurrection. There were some people who were charged with seditious conspiracy. There are insurrection statutes that do exist. No one was charged under those particular statutes. There were some people who you could say informally had insurrectionist ideas. Those would be the people who wanted to hang Nancy Pelosi or kill Mike Pence, and those people are in jail right now. And the election went forward. The election was certified. Mike Pence presided over the certification. Mitch McConnell presided over the certification. Joe Biden has been the President for the last three years.
Donald Trump, by the way, was still President at that point. If he had actually wanted to do what other people who’ve actually launched coups have done, he would’ve theoretically called the National Guard not to put down the riot but to actually depose the sitting Government of the United States in the name of a specious legal theory. He did not do that, he did not attempt that. Nobody working for him did that. The most you can say, I think, about what everybody was doing… and I don’t want to say everybody. We can talk about Trump because this is really about Trump.
He used a phrase that Trump was disseminating knowingly false information. The word that’s carrying a lot of weight there is the word knowingly. Knowingly implies a knower. Do I think the information he was disseminating was false? Yes. Do I think that Donald Trump has unique capacity to convince himself of nearly anything that is to his own benefit? Absolutely. And I think that that’s actually what Donald Trump was doing there, and the evidence for that is Donald Trump being a human and all of us watching him for the last several years.
So the idea that he knew it to be false, I’m not even sure those standards apply in any… just assessing him as a human, which is really what we’re being asked to do because there’s an intent element to this crime. Do you think that today, Donald Trump knows that he lost the election?
I think that Trump kind of thought… One, I don’t think Trump knows much at all about how the Government works. I think we probably agree with that. I think Trump probably thought that if he had people that were at least in his party and kind of camp, that they’ll basically do whatever needs to be done to give him what he wants, and with no respect for process. But now that he sees that, well, it’s not enough to just have allies; I need people that are fiercely alleged to me, would we not be worried that a guy that tried to essentially steal the election for real wouldn’t try to pick people that would be more amenable to his plans in the next administration?
It is unlike, say, the analogs that are used by the majority opinion, like age. Obviously this is not the same thing. We can all tell what somebody’s age is by looking at their birth certificate. I can’t tell whether somebody’s an insurrectionist without any reference to a legal statute or definition of the term.
That used to be applied in sort of Marxist ways, the suggestion being that economic inequality was the result of misallocation of power in the structure preserved by an upper crust of people who wanted to cram down exploitation on people. That was sort of the Marxist version of postmodernism, and that got transmuted into sort of a racial version of postmodernism in which the systems of the United States are white supremacist in orientation, and are perpetuated by a group of people who are in fact in favor of the preservation of white power and white supremacy. That is the generalized theory of Critical Race Theory as proposed by, for example, Jean Stefancic and Richard Delgado in their book on Critical Race Theory.
That has taken a softer form that we refer to as DEI. The key in DEI is the E, meaning equity. So equity is a term that does not mean equality. People mix it up. Equality is the idea that we all ought to have equal rights, that we all ought to be treated equally by the law. Equity is the idea that if there is an inequality that emerges from any system, it is therefore due to discrimination, and the best way to tell whether somebody has been victimized is by dint of their race, and we can tell whether you’re a member of an oppressed group or an oppressor group by the intersectional identity that you carry, and by the nature of your group’s success or failure predominantly along economic and power lines in American life.
This means that if one group is predominantly successful economically, they must be a member of the victimizing class, and the only corrective for that would be, as Ibram X. Kendi likes to suggest, effectively anti-racist policies, racism in the serVice of destroying racism. That you’re going to have to in order to correct for discrimination that’s baked into the system. That’s incredibly dangerous. It leads to a victim-victimizer narrative that is unhealthy for individuals and terrible for societies. It relieves people of individual responsibility and it destroys the very notion of an objective metric by which we can decide meritocracy and meritocracy is the only system human beings have ever devised that has positive externalities in literally any area of life.
Every other distribution of wealth, power done along other lines that is not having to do with merit, has negative externalities. Every system having to do with merit has positive externalities because presumably the most effective and useful people are going to succeed under those systems. That’s the very basis of a meritocracy. And the externalities of that mean that other people benefit from the meritorious and excellent performance of those people.
I mean, one of the costs of education escalating is in the massive administrative function that is now undertaken by universities, as opposed to teaching and cost of dorms and such.
The issue that you run into is people don’t ever have a stopping point, and I think people kind of get lost in this woke-for-woke-sake thing where we start to see these very weird workings of these academic, I guess, arguments that are used for really horrible things. So for instance, I think that you can talk about in the United States, things like white supremacy or things like Oppression or certain demographics, especially with Jim Crow laws and pre-Jim Crow, and you can even talk about effects from that.
But then when you run into this weird world where we’ve kind of worked these things so that not only is white supremacy still as present today as it ever has been, well actually black people and other minorities can’t even be racist. They don’t have the power to, because we’re going to use a different definition of racism and we can only talk about punching up as opposed to punching down. And then we’re actually going to say it’s totally okay for these people to say or do whatever they want, and it’s never bad. But white people, who have always been the oppressors, even if you’re like a trailer park guy whose family’s addicted to meth, you have all this privilege, etc, etc.
I think that you run into these issues where woke ism, it starts off as a really good idea and I would argue has achieved really good things, especially in regards to women’s education and everything, and then it just gets so academia-ized… There’s a word there, academic, whatever, where you take something and you put it into school too much and then it comes out as some Frankenstein cancer baby of horrible things, such that today when I’m reading stuff, and I know Ben is the same way, if I even hear somebody say the word anti-racism, I’m probably ignoring every other thing you have to say.
If you utter the word like colonial anything, I’m probably going to say you probably don’t have anything good to say. Yeah, a lot of it has just taken way too far. But you know what I will blame on some of this is I will blame conservatives for some of this-
For a long time, conservatives are saying, oh, the educational institutions are against us. Rush Limbaugh talks about how evil the colleges are and blah, blah, blah. And then what happens is conservatives are less and less willing to engage in them. So then you get this scenario or this environment where everybody that’s engaged in academia on the administrative side are fucking insane. They’re even more so to, and I also want to draw a distinction between the administrators and the faculty because oftentimes when you’re reading story after story after story of all of these insane admins that are pushing further and further left, usually the faculty is fighting against it. A lot of the tenure professors, a lot of people in their departments are saying, hold on, well, we actually don’t agree with this.
But I feel like, because conservatives for so long have demonized these institutions rather than critically evaluated them and tried to have honest critique and engagement, that they’ve just completely broken off. And when you only have a bunch of lefties or righties together, all they’ll do is they veer off even more into their insane directions. I feel like that’s a big problem that we’ve run into in the country to where conservatives have totally broken off some conversations, broken away from where they won’t participate in them anymore, and then the people that you have left just run as far to the left as possible.
And he talks about this, it’s a very evocative episode where he’s talking about how he’s smoking, and as he’s smoking, the ash is growing more and more, and the ash falls down on this very expensive carpet. And the president of the university who’s listening to him rant and rave, Shelby Steele says, “I thought he was going to say something about this. I mean, I was wrecking a thousand dollar carpet in his office being a jackass, and instead, I could see him wilt inside. I could see him collapse. He didn’t have the institutional credibility or sort of the spiritual strength to just say, ‘Listen, I agree with you on some of these things, but you’re acting like a jackass.'” And what you see in the late 1960s and early 1970s is in fact the collapse of these institutions to the point where, by the time I was going to college, there was this radical disproportion between conservatives and liberals.
The problem is that when it comes to a system like the universities, basically you have to separate the universities off into two separate categories. One is STEM, where the universities are still pretty damn good. American universities, when it comes to STEM, are still leading universities in the world. Harvard’s main creations these days are coming from actual hard science field. Then you have the liberal arts field in which you basically have a self-perpetuating elite because that’s actually how dissertations work. If you have somebody who’s very far to the left and you decide that you’re going to write a dissertation on the history of American gun rights, the chances that that is going to be approved by your dissertation advisor are much lower than if you happen to write something that tends to agree with the political positions of your dissertation advisor. Now, listen, I think there are open and tolerant professors, even in the liberal arts at these universities.
I went to these universities. I went to UCLA, I went to Harvard Law School. When I was at Harvard Law School, one of my favorite professors was Lani Guinier. Lani Guinier, they tried to appoint her, I believe, Secretary of Labor under Clinton. And she was too liberal and she got rejected. So she was like a full- on communist. By the time I went there, she was great. We had debates every day. It was wonderful. She used to write me recommendations for my legal jobs. After we left, Randall Kennedy, I don’t agree with him very much. Randall Kennedy was terrific professor. There are some professors who are like this. Unfortunately, there tends to be, in these echo chambers, more and more ideological conformity that is rigorously enforced, and it is by left on left. So, for example, when I was at Harvard Law School, the president of the university was another president who ended up being ousted, Larry Summers.
Larry Summers had been the Secretary of Treasury under Bill Clinton, and he made the critical error of suggesting that perhaps the dearth of women in hard sciences in prestigious positions was due to possibly two factors that people were refusing to talk about. One was the possibility that women actually didn’t want to be in hard sciences at nearly the rates that men do, which happens to be true. And, two, was the distribution of STEM IQ, which is something that you certainly were not allowed to talk about. The idea that the men’s bell curve when it comes to IQ, particularly on STEM subjects, tends to be shallower than the women’s bell curve. So when you get to the very end of the bell curve, what you tend to see is a lot of really dumb guys and a lot of really smarter guys.
And so when you’re talking about the top universities, maybe that has something to do with the disproportion. And he’s trying to explain that to say that our systems are not discriminating if we end up with more men than women, maybe more men are applying and more men are qualified. That’s quite a… He was ousted for that by a left-wing faculty and general alum network at Harvard University. There’s a lot to blame conservatives for surrendering the playing field. I totally agree that conservatives should not have surrendered the playing field in some institutions. Colleges were surrendered a lot earlier than 20 years ago. They were surrendered in the late 1960s, early 1970s.
And then, two, there’s a general hopelessness when it comes to how society is ran or structured, such that you fall into that populist brain rot of the only person that can save me is Donald Trump. I can’t trust literally anything. And I think that when you start driving people into that direction, all it does is it further amplifies all the problems that you’re complaining about. So that’s one of the reasons why when we talk about conservative participation, I want there to be more conservatives that are trying to participate in academia. But I feel like the leading thought or the leading speaking out against it is basically saying it’s a waste of time. It’s completely lost.
A person who used to be able to just graduate high school, now it’s de facto, you got to go to JuCo, and then you got to go to college, or nobody’s even going to look at your resume. It’s really, really terrible for people who can’t afford all of that. It’s led to this massive increase in educational cost that is inexplicable other than this particular sort of bleed up. And by the way, federal subsidies for higher education, again, one of my problems with federal subsidies for higher education, I’d love for everyone to be able to go to college if qualified to do so and if it is productive. But one of the things I did when I went to law school is I took loans because a bank said I was going to get my money back if I got a law degree from Harvard. But you know when you’re not going to get your money back? If you’re a bank, you’re not going to lend to some dude who wants to major in Art Theory because is that a good bet? There’s no collateral.
If I give a loan for a house, I can go repossess the house. How do I repossess your garbage college degree from UCLA? There’s no way to do that. This is the broader conversation about education in general. I think the educational system is cruising for a bruising, and I think all that’s necessary for it to completely collapse on the non-STEM side where you actually learn things is for people who employ to simply say, give me your SAT score and I will hire you for an apprenticeship directly out of high school. That it would cut out so much of the middleman. But as far as the general point that you’re making about institutions, I may disagree on the education and how far it’s gone. In general, I agree with you. So in general, I agree. And, I guess, to use my favorite longest word in the English language here, I would consider myself in many cases an anti-disestablishmentarianist.
The idea of a full commitment to a human being with whom you genetically create children, which is typically how we’ve done it throughout human existence, is in fact the fundamental basis for any functional civilization. It allows for the transmission of culture and values. It allows for the transmission of beliefs and responsibility. And it gives the great lie to both, the communitarian lie, the atomistic individualist lie. The communitarian lie is that you belong to the giant community of man, which is not true because you have a family. And your allegiance should be and is naturally to the members of your family first. That’s how we learn, and then we expound that out.
And it also is a lie to the notion that we are all atomistic individuals with no responsibilities. We are born into a world of responsibilities. Everyone is born into a world of responsibilities, and rules, and roles. And those are good. And if we do not actually socialize our children that way, there will be, number one, no children. Number two, there will be no healthy children. Number three, there will be not the foundation for either social fabric, which is the real glue that holds together society or for a functional government. So, yes. Yes, monogamous marriage. I’m a fan. 15 years married, four kids. Yes.
And, arguably, although we’re getting into weird places I guess in the world now, children are the primary conduit for where you transmit cultural values and everything. The one kind of weird thing that we are coming up against, that we have been coming up against now for some number of decades and we’ll continue to is as societies progress, seems like people are having less children. And I actually don’t know 100% what the answer is to that question.
I don’t know if I would say there exists a moral imperative on an individual to have children. I think that there’s a lot of interesting arguments down that path. I don’t know if we’re quite at the point yet where we need to say like, oh my God, we’re running out of people. We need to have more kids. I don’t think we’re quite there yet, but we are seeing weird demographic trends that are having big impacts on how countries are playing out. For instance, the fact that we have a disproportionately huge aging population that needs to be taken care of with medical expenses and everything, that vote in different ways than our younger population, and that when they die off, the way that society is going to look is going to be a lot different. I don’t actually have a, I’m not entirely sure what the future’s going to look like in terms of pushing people to have kids when every single industrialized country, as they become more industrialized, have fewer and fewer and fewer children.
So I think if you go through life saying, well, I try my best to be unbiased rather than saying, I try my best to be aware of my biases because the latter is more realistic and the former is literally impossible unless you’re a computer. So I think having actual mental practices that you engage in to try to counter some of the biases that you have is more important than trying to pretend that you’re free of all biases and then consuming all your media from one source.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:36 – Liberalism vs Conservatism
- 6:49 – Education
- 23:06 – Trump vs Biden
- 43:31 – Foreign policy
- 56:28 – Israel-Palestine
- 1:11:25 – Russia-Ukraine
- 1:23:04 – January 6
- 1:39:03 – Abuse of power
- 1:49:01 – Wokeism
- 1:55:42 – Institutional capture
- 2:09:36 – Monogamy vs open relationships
- 2:14:29 – Rapid fire questions
Introduction
Destiny
Something has to happen with Iran. There has to be some diplomatic bilateral communication there.
Something has to happen with Iran. There has to be some diplomatic bilateral communication there.
Ben Shapiro
No. What has to happen is the containment of Iran.
No. What has to happen is the containment of Iran.
Destiny
History moves in one direction.
History moves in one direction.
Ben Shapiro
Why?
Why?
Destiny
Because of time.
Because of time.
Ben Shapiro
Communism, Nazism, all of that was a regression from what was happening at, for example, the beginning of the 19th century into the 20th century.
Communism, Nazism, all of that was a regression from what was happening at, for example, the beginning of the 19th century into the 20th century.
Destiny
In what way?
In what way?
Ben Shapiro
Do you think that today Donald Trump knows that he lost the election?
Do you think that today Donald Trump knows that he lost the election?
Destiny
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Ben Shapiro
I don’t.
I don’t.
Destiny
This is one of the areas where we get into this, I don’t understand if there’s brain-breaking happening or what’s going on. I don’t know what world we can ever live in where we say that Trump is less divisive for the country than Biden.
This is one of the areas where we get into this, I don’t understand if there’s brain-breaking happening or what’s going on. I don’t know what world we can ever live in where we say that Trump is less divisive for the country than Biden.
Ben Shapiro
Joe Biden literally used the Occupational Safety and Hazard Administration to try to cram down vax mandates on 80 million Americans. That’s insane.
Joe Biden literally used the Occupational Safety and Hazard Administration to try to cram down vax mandates on 80 million Americans. That’s insane.
Destiny
What about supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?
What about supercalifragilisticexpialidocious?
Ben Shapiro
What about pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis?
What about pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis?
Destiny
Yeah, or the science terms.
Yeah, or the science terms.
Ben Shapiro
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Destiny
Or what about the 7,000 letter thing that’s from part of a biochem.
Or what about the 7,000 letter thing that’s from part of a biochem.
Lex Fridman
I got my education in the Soviet Union. So we just did math. We didn’t run any of this.
I got my education in the Soviet Union. So we just did math. We didn’t run any of this.
Ben Shapiro
That’s why you’re a useful person.
That’s why you’re a useful person.
Lex Fridman
Does body count matter? The following is a debate between Ben Shapiro and Destiny. Each arguably representing the right and left of American politics respectively. They are two of the most influential and skilled political debaters in the world. This debate has been a long time coming for many years. It’s about 2.5 hours and we could have easily gone for many more. And I’m sure we will. It is only round one. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast to support it. Please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Ben Shapiro and Destiny.
Does body count matter? The following is a debate between Ben Shapiro and Destiny. Each arguably representing the right and left of American politics respectively. They are two of the most influential and skilled political debaters in the world. This debate has been a long time coming for many years. It’s about 2.5 hours and we could have easily gone for many more. And I’m sure we will. It is only round one. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast to support it. Please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Ben Shapiro and Destiny.
Liberalism vs Conservatism
Ben, you’re conservative. Destiny, you’re a liberal. Can you each describe what key values underpin your philosophy on politics and maybe life in the context of this left to right political spectrum? You want to go first?
Destiny
Yeah. So I think that we have a huge country full of a lot of people, a lot of individual talents, capabilities, and I think that the goal of government, broadly speaking, should be to try to ensure that everybody is able to achieve as much as possible. So on a liberal level, that usually means some people might need a little bit of a boost when it comes to things like education. They might need a little bit of a boost when it comes to providing certain necessities like housing or food or clothing. But broadly speaking, I mean, I’m still a liberal, not a communist or a socialist. I don’t believe in the total command economy, total communist takeover of all of the economy, but I think that broadly speaking, the government should kick in and help people when they need it.
Yeah. So I think that we have a huge country full of a lot of people, a lot of individual talents, capabilities, and I think that the goal of government, broadly speaking, should be to try to ensure that everybody is able to achieve as much as possible. So on a liberal level, that usually means some people might need a little bit of a boost when it comes to things like education. They might need a little bit of a boost when it comes to providing certain necessities like housing or food or clothing. But broadly speaking, I mean, I’m still a liberal, not a communist or a socialist. I don’t believe in the total command economy, total communist takeover of all of the economy, but I think that broadly speaking, the government should kick in and help people when they need it.
Lex Fridman
And that government can and should be big?
And that government can and should be big?
Destiny
Not necessarily. I noticed that when liberals talk about government, especially taxes, it seems like they talk about it for taxes sake or bigness sake. So people talk about taxes sometimes as like a punishment, like tax the rich. I think taxing the rich is fine insofar as it funds the programs that we want to fund. But Democrats have a really big problem demonizing success or wealth. And I don’t think that’s a bad thing. I don’t think it’s a bad thing to be wealthy, to be a billionaire or whatever, as long as we’re funding what we need to fund.
Not necessarily. I noticed that when liberals talk about government, especially taxes, it seems like they talk about it for taxes sake or bigness sake. So people talk about taxes sometimes as like a punishment, like tax the rich. I think taxing the rich is fine insofar as it funds the programs that we want to fund. But Democrats have a really big problem demonizing success or wealth. And I don’t think that’s a bad thing. I don’t think it’s a bad thing to be wealthy, to be a billionaire or whatever, as long as we’re funding what we need to fund.
Lex Fridman
Ben, what do you think it means to be a conservative? What’s the philosophy that underlies your political view?
Ben, what do you think it means to be a conservative? What’s the philosophy that underlies your political view?
Ben Shapiro
So first of all, I’m glad that Destiny, you’re already coming out as a Republican. That’s exciting. I mean, we hold a lot in common in terms of the basic idea that people ought to have as much opportunity as possible and also insofar as the government should do the minimum amount necessary to interfere in people’s lives in order to pursue certain functions, particularly at the local level.
So first of all, I’m glad that Destiny, you’re already coming out as a Republican. That’s exciting. I mean, we hold a lot in common in terms of the basic idea that people ought to have as much opportunity as possible and also insofar as the government should do the minimum amount necessary to interfere in people’s lives in order to pursue certain functions, particularly at the local level.
So a lot of governmental discussions on a pragmatic level end up being discussions about where government ought to be involved, but also at what level government ought to be involved. And I have an incredibly subsidiary view of government. I think that local governments, because you have higher levels of homogeneity and consent are capable of doing more things. And as you abstract up the chain, it becomes more and more impractical and more and more divisive to do more things.
In my view, government is basically there to preserve certain key liberties. Those key liberties pre-exist the government insofar as they’re more important than what priorities the government has. The job of government is to maintain, for example, national defense, protection of property rights, protection of religious freedom. These are the key focuses of government as generally expressed in the Bill of Rights and the Constitution. And I agree with the general philosophy of the Bill of Rights and the Constitution.
Now, that doesn’t mean by the way, that you can’t do more on a governmental level again as you get closer to the ground, which by the way is also embedded in the Constitution. People forget the Constitution was originally applied to the federal government, not to local and state government. But if I were going to define conservatism, it would actually be a little broader than that because I think to understand how people interact with government, you have to go to core values.
And so for me, there are a couple of premises. One, human beings have a nature. That nature is neither good nor bad. We have aspects of goodness and we have aspects of badness. Human beings are sinful. We have temptations. What that means is that we have to be careful not to incentivize the bad and that we should incentivize the good. Human beings do have agency and are capable of making decisions in the vast majority of circumstances. And it’s better for society if we act as though they do.
Second, the basic idea of human nature. There is an idea in my view that all human beings have equal value before the law. I’m a religious person, so I’d say equal value before God. But I think that’s also sort of a key tenet of Western civilization being non-religious or religious, that every individual has equivalent value in sort of cosmic terms.
But that does not necessarily mean that every person is equally equipped to do everything equally well. And so it is not the job of government to rectify every imbalance of life. The quest for cosmic justice, as Thomas Sowell suggests, is something that government is generally incapable of doing, and more often than not, botches and makes things worse. So those are a few key tenets and that tends to materialize in a variety of ways. The easiest way to sum that up would the traditional kind of three legs of the conservative stool, although now obviously there’s a very fragmented conservative movement in the United States would be a socially conservative view in which family is the chief institution of society, like the little platoons of society as Edmund Burke suggested, in which free markets and property rights are extraordinarily valuable and necessary because every individual has the ability to be creative with their property and to freely alienate that property.
Finally, I tend toward a hawkish foreign policy that suggests that the world is not filled with wonderful people who all agree with us and think like us. And those people will pursue adversarial interests if we do not protect our own interests.
Destiny
Can I ask a question on that? I’m so curious.
Can I ask a question on that? I’m so curious.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Education
Destiny
I’m excited for this conversation because I consider you to be really intelligent, but I feel like sometimes there are ways that conservatives talk about certain issues that seem to defy logic and reason, I guess. And I’m sure you feel the same way about… Well, I feel the same way about progressives, but even some liberals for sure. Before I ask this question, it’s going to relate to education. We can agree broadly speaking that statistics are real and that not everybody could do everything. So for a grounded example, my life was pretty bad. I got into streaming and I turned my life around and that was really cool. But I can’t expect everybody to do what I did. Right? Like everybody being able to join the NBA or to be like a streamer.
I’m excited for this conversation because I consider you to be really intelligent, but I feel like sometimes there are ways that conservatives talk about certain issues that seem to defy logic and reason, I guess. And I’m sure you feel the same way about… Well, I feel the same way about progressives, but even some liberals for sure. Before I ask this question, it’s going to relate to education. We can agree broadly speaking that statistics are real and that not everybody could do everything. So for a grounded example, my life was pretty bad. I got into streaming and I turned my life around and that was really cool. But I can’t expect everybody to do what I did. Right? Like everybody being able to join the NBA or to be like a streamer.
Ben Shapiro
Of course, everybody has different qualities. Sure.
Of course, everybody has different qualities. Sure.
Destiny
Okay. So I used to be a lot more libertarian when I was 20, 21. And one of the things that dramatically changed my view on government, manipulation of things in the, I guess, in society when it came time to deal with my son and the school that he went to. And one of the things that I noticed was when time to send my son to school, I could either do private education or I could do public.
Okay. So I used to be a lot more libertarian when I was 20, 21. And one of the things that dramatically changed my view on government, manipulation of things in the, I guess, in society when it came time to deal with my son and the school that he went to. And one of the things that I noticed was when time to send my son to school, I could either do private education or I could do public.
Personally, I did 12 years of Catholic private education. However, the public schools in Nebraska, depending on where you lived, were very, very, very good. I opted for a certain district, I bought a house there, I moved there, and then my son was able to go to those schools. And he’s been going through those schools and the difference of availability of technology, these kids are taking home iPads in first grade. They’ve got huge computer labs and everything. Do you think that there is some type of, I don’t want to say injustice or unfairness because not even looking at it that way, just pragmatically that there might be children that are in certain schools that if they just had better funding or more access to technologies or things available to them, that those kids would become more productive members of society that would like a little bit of a help that they could actually achieve more and do better for all of society?
Ben Shapiro
So I think that on the list of priorities when it comes to education, the availability of technology is actually fairly low on the list of priorities.
So I think that on the list of priorities when it comes to education, the availability of technology is actually fairly low on the list of priorities.
Destiny
Sure. The two things I’ve heard are food availability, and I think air conditioning I think are the two biggest ones that I hear, but sure.
Sure. The two things I’ve heard are food availability, and I think air conditioning I think are the two biggest ones that I hear, but sure.
Ben Shapiro
Well, I mean the biggest thing in terms of education itself, not just the physical facilities that we’re talking about, would actually be two parent family households.
Well, I mean the biggest thing in terms of education itself, not just the physical facilities that we’re talking about, would actually be two parent family households.
Destiny
Sure.
Sure.
Ben Shapiro
Communities that have fathers in them. It’s actually the number one decisive according to Roland Friar and many studies done on this particular topic. And the idea that money alone, that investment of resources is the top priority in schooling is belied by the fact that LAUSD, which is where I went to school when I was younger, they pour an enormous amount of money into LAUSD. We’re talking about tens of thousands of dollars very often per student, and it does not result in better schooling outcomes.
Communities that have fathers in them. It’s actually the number one decisive according to Roland Friar and many studies done on this particular topic. And the idea that money alone, that investment of resources is the top priority in schooling is belied by the fact that LAUSD, which is where I went to school when I was younger, they pour an enormous amount of money into LAUSD. We’re talking about tens of thousands of dollars very often per student, and it does not result in better schooling outcomes.
So when you say, if we could give every kid an iPad, would you give every kid an iPad? The question is not, if I had a replicator machine from Star Trek, would I give everybody an enormous amount of stuff? Sure, I would. Every resource is fine. It every resource is limited, and you have to prioritize what are the outcomes that you seek in terms of the means with which you are seeking them.
And so, again, I think that the question is… I quibble with the premise of the question, which is that, again, the chief injustice when it comes to education on the list of injustices is lack of availability to technology or that it’s a funding problem. I just don’t think that’s the case.
Destiny
Sure. And I can half agree with you there, but I don’t think any amount of changes in the schools will create two parent households. We can’t bring a-
Sure. And I can half agree with you there, but I don’t think any amount of changes in the schools will create two parent households. We can’t bring a-
Ben Shapiro
I totally agree with you. That’s why I think that the fundamental educational problem is not in fact a schooling problem. I think that it preexist that.
I totally agree with you. That’s why I think that the fundamental educational problem is not in fact a schooling problem. I think that it preexist that.
Destiny
Sure. Now, I feel like this is kind of the conservative merry-go-round where it’s like, what can we do to help with schools? So two of the things that I’ve seen I think that are usually brought up in research is one is air conditioning that children in hotter environments just don’t learn as well. And then the second one is access to food. So kids that are given a breakfast or a lunch that’s provided at school increases educational outcomes.
Sure. Now, I feel like this is kind of the conservative merry-go-round where it’s like, what can we do to help with schools? So two of the things that I’ve seen I think that are usually brought up in research is one is air conditioning that children in hotter environments just don’t learn as well. And then the second one is access to food. So kids that are given a breakfast or a lunch that’s provided at school increases educational outcomes.
Now, I agree that neither of these things might be determinative in, well, 20% of kids were graduating and now 80% of kids are graduating. Or these kids are all going with their GEDs into the workforce, and now these kids are all suddenly becoming engineers. But in terms of where we can help, do you think there should be some minimum threshold or minimum baseline of… At the very least, every school should have a non-leaky gym or every school should have… If children can’t afford lunch or breakfast like some sort of food provided or every school should have these baseline things?
Ben Shapiro
So again, I’m going to quibble with the premise of the question because I think that when it comes to, for example, food insecurity, school food programs… Again, you can always pour money into any program and at the margins create change. I mean, there’s no doubt that pouring money onto anything will create change in a marginal way. The question is how large is the margin and how big is the movement? So the delta is what I’m looking at.
So again, I’m going to quibble with the premise of the question because I think that when it comes to, for example, food insecurity, school food programs… Again, you can always pour money into any program and at the margins create change. I mean, there’s no doubt that pouring money onto anything will create change in a marginal way. The question is how large is the margin and how big is the movement? So the delta is what I’m looking at.
I think that you’re starting at a second order question, which is what if we ignore what I would think are the big primary questions of education, namely family structure, value of education at home. How much you have parents who are capable or willing to help with homework? What are the incentive structures we can set up for a society that actually facilitate that? How local communities take ownership of their schools is a big one, right?
All of these issues we’re ignoring in favor of, say, “Air conditioning or lunch programs.” And so in a vacuum, if you say air conditioning and lunch programs sounds great in a vacuum. In terms of prioritization of values and cost structure, are those the things that I think are going to move the needle in a major way in terms of public policy? I do not. And in fact, I think that many of them end up being disproportionate wastes of money. I’ve talked before pretty controversially about the fact that an enormous amount of school lunch programs are thrown out.
An enormous amount of that food ends up in the garbage can. Is there a better way to do that? If there is a better way to do it, then I’m perfectly willing to hear about that better way to do it. But it seems to me that one of the big flaws in the way that many people of the left approach government is what if we hit every gnat with a hammer? And my question is, what if the gnat isn’t even the problem? What if there is a much bigger substructure problem that needs to be solved in order to… If you’re shifting deck chairs on the Titanic, sure, you can make the Titanic slightly more balanced because the deck chairs are slightly better oriented. But the real question is the water that’s gaping into the Titanic, right?
Destiny
Yeah. And I agree with you 100%, but again, I feel like we’re on the conservative merry-go-round then of never wanting to address-
Yeah. And I agree with you 100%, but again, I feel like we’re on the conservative merry-go-round then of never wanting to address-
Ben Shapiro
That’s not a conservative merry-go-round. I can give you 10 ways.
That’s not a conservative merry-go-round. I can give you 10 ways.
Destiny
Well, sure. So here would be the merry-go-round. I would say that there is a minimum funding for schools that I think would help children, and then we go, “Well, the thing that would help them the most is two parent household.” Then they go, “Okay. Well, two parent households actually aren’t the problem. The issue is access to things like birth controls that people don’t have children early on.” And it’s like, “But the issue isn’t actually birth control, the issue is actually you need a certain amount of money to move out early and to get married and then to have a two-parent household.” So it’s actually like economic opportunity.
Well, sure. So here would be the merry-go-round. I would say that there is a minimum funding for schools that I think would help children, and then we go, “Well, the thing that would help them the most is two parent household.” Then they go, “Okay. Well, two parent households actually aren’t the problem. The issue is access to things like birth controls that people don’t have children early on.” And it’s like, “But the issue isn’t actually birth control, the issue is actually you need a certain amount of money to move out early and to get married and then to have a two-parent household.” So it’s actually like economic opportunity.
Ben Shapiro
No.
No.
Destiny
Well, it’s not…
Well, it’s not…
Ben Shapiro
Just two parent households. That’s it.
Just two parent households. That’s it.
Destiny
But what are the pre-cursor-
But what are the pre-cursor-
Ben Shapiro
Don’t fuck people before you’re married and have babies.
Don’t fuck people before you’re married and have babies.
Destiny
Sure.
Sure.
Ben Shapiro
Done.
Done.
Destiny
That’s great. We can say that and try to fight against however many hundreds of thousands of years of human evolution, but people will have sex and people will make babies.
That’s great. We can say that and try to fight against however many hundreds of thousands of years of human evolution, but people will have sex and people will make babies.
Ben Shapiro
And then they used to get married. The vast majority of people in this country with kids used to be married. The vast majority of people with kids in this country now are not married increasingly.
And then they used to get married. The vast majority of people in this country with kids used to be married. The vast majority of people with kids in this country now are not married increasingly.
Destiny
But a lot of those-
But a lot of those-
Ben Shapiro
It’s obviously a societal change. Something changed. It wasn’t human evolution.
It’s obviously a societal change. Something changed. It wasn’t human evolution.
Destiny
But a lot of those things in terms of resting on whether or not people get married, have to do with financial decisions. Do you have the money?
But a lot of those things in terms of resting on whether or not people get married, have to do with financial decisions. Do you have the money?
Ben Shapiro
People are worse off now than they were 50, 60 years ago when the marriage rates were higher.
People are worse off now than they were 50, 60 years ago when the marriage rates were higher.
Destiny
People are delaying the start of their careers because education is going to be increasingly important.
People are delaying the start of their careers because education is going to be increasingly important.
Ben Shapiro
So in other words, people are richer now and they have more education now, and yet they’re having more babies out of wedlock now because they’re richer and have more education?
So in other words, people are richer now and they have more education now, and yet they’re having more babies out of wedlock now because they’re richer and have more education?
Destiny
I’m saying that one of the biggest indicators for whether or not somebody is willing to get married is how much money both people are making if they can move out of their household. People don’t tend to want to get married at 22 when they’ve just finished college, when they don’t have the money to move out and they can’t afford a house.
I’m saying that one of the biggest indicators for whether or not somebody is willing to get married is how much money both people are making if they can move out of their household. People don’t tend to want to get married at 22 when they’ve just finished college, when they don’t have the money to move out and they can’t afford a house.
Ben Shapiro
Because we have changed the moral status of marriage in the culture. Meaning that everyone poor, rich and in between used to get married. By the way, a huge percentage of marriages in the United States used to be what they would call shotgun marriages, meaning that somebody knocked somebody up and because they did not want the baby to be born outside of a two-parent household, they would then get married.
Because we have changed the moral status of marriage in the culture. Meaning that everyone poor, rich and in between used to get married. By the way, a huge percentage of marriages in the United States used to be what they would call shotgun marriages, meaning that somebody knocked somebody up and because they did not want the baby to be born outside of a two-parent household, they would then get married.
Destiny
Do we think that shotgun marriages though are a way to bring back equilibrium to education?
Do we think that shotgun marriages though are a way to bring back equilibrium to education?
Ben Shapiro
Yes, absolutely. Yes, 100%. A child deserves a mother and a father because that is the basis for all of this, including education.
Yes, absolutely. Yes, 100%. A child deserves a mother and a father because that is the basis for all of this, including education.
Destiny
Do we think that shotgun marriages are… Well, let’s say this. Do we think that that’s a reasonable direction that society would ever take? Or is this-
Do we think that shotgun marriages are… Well, let’s say this. Do we think that that’s a reasonable direction that society would ever take? Or is this-
Ben Shapiro
Yes. It was the reasonable direction for nearly all of modern history
Yes. It was the reasonable direction for nearly all of modern history
Destiny
Was, but history moves in one direction.
Was, but history moves in one direction.
Ben Shapiro
Why?
Why?
Destiny
Because of time.
Because of time.
Ben Shapiro
People don’t think that’s… In what ways?
People don’t think that’s… In what ways?
Destiny
I don’t think we’ve ever regressed social standards back to like, “Oh, well, let’s go a hundred years back and do things that used to exist before.”
I don’t think we’ve ever regressed social standards back to like, “Oh, well, let’s go a hundred years back and do things that used to exist before.”
Ben Shapiro
The entire left right now is arguing that we regressed social standards by rejecting Roe v. Wade. So that’s obviously not true.
The entire left right now is arguing that we regressed social standards by rejecting Roe v. Wade. So that’s obviously not true.
Destiny
The Roe v. Wade is not a social standard. It’s a supreme court ruling, number one. But number two, if you read the actual majority opinion on Roe v. Wade, we can see that socially we ever actually never made huge progress on how society viewed abortion. This has always been an incredibly divisive thing. Even that was, I think, part of Alitos writing on it was that things like gay marriage, for instance, we’ve kind of moved past, and it’s not really as debated anymore, but abortion was never a subtle topic despite Rove v. Wade.
The Roe v. Wade is not a social standard. It’s a supreme court ruling, number one. But number two, if you read the actual majority opinion on Roe v. Wade, we can see that socially we ever actually never made huge progress on how society viewed abortion. This has always been an incredibly divisive thing. Even that was, I think, part of Alitos writing on it was that things like gay marriage, for instance, we’ve kind of moved past, and it’s not really as debated anymore, but abortion was never a subtle topic despite Rove v. Wade.
Ben Shapiro
The notion of the the arc of history constantly moves in one direction is belied by nearly all of the 20th century.
The notion of the the arc of history constantly moves in one direction is belied by nearly all of the 20th century.
Destiny
What do we mean by that? [inaudible 00:15:42] women’s rights? Civil rights?
What do we mean by that? [inaudible 00:15:42] women’s rights? Civil rights?
Ben Shapiro
Barbarism, communism, Nazism, all of that was a regression from what was happening at, for example, the beginning of the 19th century and the 20th century.
Barbarism, communism, Nazism, all of that was a regression from what was happening at, for example, the beginning of the 19th century and the 20th century.
Destiny
In what way?
In what way?
Ben Shapiro
Nazis and communism weren’t a regression from what was going on in 1905?
Nazis and communism weren’t a regression from what was going on in 1905?
Destiny
Well, in terms of communism being a regression, for instance… I’m not Not a communist, but the industrialization of the Soviet Union happened under communist society, the industrialization-
Well, in terms of communism being a regression, for instance… I’m not Not a communist, but the industrialization of the Soviet Union happened under communist society, the industrialization-
Ben Shapiro
Except murder of tens of millions of people.
Except murder of tens of millions of people.
Destiny
Yeah. There’s-
Yeah. There’s-
Ben Shapiro
I consider that regression, a moral regression, which is what we are talking about now, moral regression. And you’re suggesting that moral regression, I wouldn’t term. I would term return two traditional values a moral regression. You would. But your suggestion is that history only moves in one direction, and I’m suggesting that history does not only move in one direction, it tends to move actually back and forth.
I consider that regression, a moral regression, which is what we are talking about now, moral regression. And you’re suggesting that moral regression, I wouldn’t term. I would term return two traditional values a moral regression. You would. But your suggestion is that history only moves in one direction, and I’m suggesting that history does not only move in one direction, it tends to move actually back and forth.
Destiny
Sure. I don’t think that all of history moves in one direction. There are going to be wars, there are going to be times of peace. I think in general, we’re more peaceful now than we have been in the past, but I think when we look at the way that people live their lives, I think that we tend to move in a certain direction socially. So when it comes to things like racism or when it comes to things like slavery or women’s rights, I think that there are two huge things that probably aren’t changing in the US and one is access to contraception and one is women working jobs.
Sure. I don’t think that all of history moves in one direction. There are going to be wars, there are going to be times of peace. I think in general, we’re more peaceful now than we have been in the past, but I think when we look at the way that people live their lives, I think that we tend to move in a certain direction socially. So when it comes to things like racism or when it comes to things like slavery or women’s rights, I think that there are two huge things that probably aren’t changing in the US and one is access to contraception and one is women working jobs.
I think that these two things are probably huge things that are moving us off of shotgun marriages or getting married very early on, and I don’t see… Do you think that those two things are going to change fundamentally?
Ben Shapiro
First of all, what the data tend to show is that actually more highly educated people, as you are saying, tend to get married more. So the idea is that women getting an education somehow throws them off marriage. It’s the opposite. Usually it’s women who are not educated-
First of all, what the data tend to show is that actually more highly educated people, as you are saying, tend to get married more. So the idea is that women getting an education somehow throws them off marriage. It’s the opposite. Usually it’s women who are not educated-
Destiny
But those women aren’t getting shotgun marriages. Those women aren’t having children.
But those women aren’t getting shotgun marriages. Those women aren’t having children.
Ben Shapiro
But now you’re shifting the topic. My topic was how to get more people married. And then you suggested that higher levels of education are delaying marriage and making it less probable. What I’m telling you, because this is what the data suggests, is that actually as you raise up the educational ladder, people tend to be married more than they are lower down on the educational ladder. If you’re a high school graduate, you’re less likely to be married than if you’re a postdoc.
But now you’re shifting the topic. My topic was how to get more people married. And then you suggested that higher levels of education are delaying marriage and making it less probable. What I’m telling you, because this is what the data suggests, is that actually as you raise up the educational ladder, people tend to be married more than they are lower down on the educational ladder. If you’re a high school graduate, you’re less likely to be married than if you’re a postdoc.
Destiny
I agree with you, but that’s because one of the biggest precursors to getting married is having a level of economic stability. So as people get more educated, they obtain this economic stability and then they’re in a more comfortable position to explore more serious relationships.
I agree with you, but that’s because one of the biggest precursors to getting married is having a level of economic stability. So as people get more educated, they obtain this economic stability and then they’re in a more comfortable position to explore more serious relationships.
Ben Shapiro
There’s another confound there. I mean, the confound is that people in stable marriages tend to be the children of stable marriages, and there’s only one way to break that cycle, which is to create a stable marriage, and that is something that is in everyone’s hands. Again, this notion that it is somehow an unbreakable, unshatterable barrier to get married and have kids, I don’t understand where this is coming from. Why is that such a challenge? It’s not a challenge.
There’s another confound there. I mean, the confound is that people in stable marriages tend to be the children of stable marriages, and there’s only one way to break that cycle, which is to create a stable marriage, and that is something that is in everyone’s hands. Again, this notion that it is somehow an unbreakable, unshatterable barrier to get married and have kids, I don’t understand where this is coming from. Why is that such a challenge? It’s not a challenge.
Destiny
I don’t it’s unbreakable or unshatterable. The initial point was for school, if we can provide a minimum level of educational stuff for children, that’d probably be good. But when we retreat back to, well, it has to be the families that are fixed first, fixing families is a multivariate problem that so many [inaudible 00:18:19]
I don’t it’s unbreakable or unshatterable. The initial point was for school, if we can provide a minimum level of educational stuff for children, that’d probably be good. But when we retreat back to, well, it has to be the families that are fixed first, fixing families is a multivariate problem that so many [inaudible 00:18:19]
Ben Shapiro
I’m fine within my local community. Again, I’ve suggested that there’s a difference between local community and federal. I’m fine with my local community voting for school lunches or air conditioning or whatever it is that we all agreed to do. Because the more local you get, the more homogeneity you get in terms of interest and the more interest you have in your neighbors. All of that is fine. I’m part of a very, very solid community. In our community, we give to each other. We have minimum standards of helping one another.
I’m fine within my local community. Again, I’ve suggested that there’s a difference between local community and federal. I’m fine with my local community voting for school lunches or air conditioning or whatever it is that we all agreed to do. Because the more local you get, the more homogeneity you get in terms of interest and the more interest you have in your neighbors. All of that is fine. I’m part of a very, very solid community. In our community, we give to each other. We have minimum standards of helping one another.
All that is wonderful. When it comes to the actual problem of education, what I object to in the political sphere, and this happens all the time, is everybody is arguing on top of the iceberg about how we can move the needle 0.5 percentage points as opposed to the entire iceberg melting beneath them. And we just ignore that and we pretend that that’s just sort of the natural consequence of thing. The arc of history suggests that people are never going to get married again.
Well, I mean, actually what the arc of history suggests realistically speaking is that the people who are not getting married are not going to be having kids. And what it also suggests, the people who are married are going to be having kids. So the demographic profile actually over time is rather going to shift toward people who are having lots and lots of kids. I’m married, I have four kids. Everyone in my community is married. That’s like minimum buy-in my community is four kids.
So what’s happening actually in terms of demographics is that the people who are more religious and getting married are having more kids. And so if you’re talking about the arc of history shifting toward marriage, I would suggest that actually demographically over time, long periods of time, not over one generation, over long periods of time, the only cure for low birth rate is going to be the people who get married and have lots of kids.
Destiny
I don’t necessarily disagree with any of that, but I’m just saying that, again, on the… I know you’re upset when I bring up the term merry-go-round. I think that there are good conversations to be had about people getting married because stable families produce stable children that are less likely to commit crime, that are more likely to go to school, that are more likely to be productive members of society, et cetera, et cetera.
I don’t necessarily disagree with any of that, but I’m just saying that, again, on the… I know you’re upset when I bring up the term merry-go-round. I think that there are good conversations to be had about people getting married because stable families produce stable children that are less likely to commit crime, that are more likely to go to school, that are more likely to be productive members of society, et cetera, et cetera.
I’m not going to disagree with you on any of that. All of that is true. It’s just frustrating that sometimes when you bring up any problem, all of it will circle back to other things that makes it seem like we can’t make any progress in any area without fixing something [inaudible 00:20:10]
Ben Shapiro
In what way? I literally just told you that on the local level, I’m fine for people voting for [inaudible 00:20:13]
In what way? I literally just told you that on the local level, I’m fine for people voting for [inaudible 00:20:13]
Destiny
For instance, on the local level. So for school funding, school funding is done, I think generally per district. So what do you do when you have poor districts that can’t afford air conditioner for their schools?
For instance, on the local level. So for school funding, school funding is done, I think generally per district. So what do you do when you have poor districts that can’t afford air conditioner for their schools?
Ben Shapiro
I mean, the idea there would be that presumably if the society, meaning the state, and I generally don’t mean the federal state. I mean the state of California, for example, decides that everybody ought to have air conditioning. People will vote for air conditioning, and that’s perfectly legal. I don’t think there’s anything morally objectionable about that per se.
I mean, the idea there would be that presumably if the society, meaning the state, and I generally don’t mean the federal state. I mean the state of California, for example, decides that everybody ought to have air conditioning. People will vote for air conditioning, and that’s perfectly legal. I don’t think there’s anything morally objectionable about that per se.
Destiny
Cool.
Cool.
Ben Shapiro
I also don’t think that that’s going to heal anything remotely like the central problem.
I also don’t think that that’s going to heal anything remotely like the central problem.
Destiny
Sure. I agree.
Sure. I agree.
Ben Shapiro
And I think that what tends to happen in terms of government is people love arguing about the problems that can be solved by opening a wallet. And nobody likes to solve a problem by closing their sex life to one person, for example, or having kids within a stable religious community. The things that actually build society… I’m fine with arguing about each of these policies and whether we apply them or not is a matter generally of pragmatism, not morality.
And I think that what tends to happen in terms of government is people love arguing about the problems that can be solved by opening a wallet. And nobody likes to solve a problem by closing their sex life to one person, for example, or having kids within a stable religious community. The things that actually build society… I’m fine with arguing about each of these policies and whether we apply them or not is a matter generally of pragmatism, not morality.
It’s a matter of incentive structures, not per se morality, because incentive structures do have moral underpinnings. There’s such a thing as… For example, if you’re going to use a welfare program, you have to decide how effective it is to what crowd. It applies where the cutoffs are. Does it disincentivize work, does it not? All of these are pragmatic concerns. But on a moral level, the generalized objection that I have to people on the left side of the aisle is that they like to focus… In these conversations very often it feels as though it’s a conversation with people who are drunk, searching under the lamp for their keys. The problems they want to look at are the problems that are solvable by government, and then all the problems they don’t want to look at, which are the actual giant monsters lurking in the dark and not particularly solvable by government are the ones they want to ignore and assume are just the natural state of things. And I don’t think that’s correct at all.
Destiny
And I 1 billion percent agree. But then obviously my criticism for the conservative side is the exact opposite where there are parts where government could remedy some issues. For instance, children having sex with each other and producing other children out of wedlock. Sometimes having afterschool programs is nice to prevent that. I didn’t have time for these things. When I was in school, I was doing football practice, I was doing cross country practice. I went in early for a band. I agree with you that sometimes people only focus on one end of the problem as I hate to be that guy, but as somebody that… Have you ever watched The Wire?
And I 1 billion percent agree. But then obviously my criticism for the conservative side is the exact opposite where there are parts where government could remedy some issues. For instance, children having sex with each other and producing other children out of wedlock. Sometimes having afterschool programs is nice to prevent that. I didn’t have time for these things. When I was in school, I was doing football practice, I was doing cross country practice. I went in early for a band. I agree with you that sometimes people only focus on one end of the problem as I hate to be that guy, but as somebody that… Have you ever watched The Wire?
Ben Shapiro
Sure.
Sure.
Destiny
I’m not going to cite The Wire as a real life example, but obviously there’s only so much you can do in a school when the children coming in are so beyond destroyed because of the family life and everything prior to them even getting to school that day. So I agree. Government is not like the solution to broken families. That would never be the case.
I’m not going to cite The Wire as a real life example, but obviously there’s only so much you can do in a school when the children coming in are so beyond destroyed because of the family life and everything prior to them even getting to school that day. So I agree. Government is not like the solution to broken families. That would never be the case.
Ben Shapiro
And it’s actually not the solution to education depending on the kind of solutions that you’re talking about. Some solutions, yes. Some solutions, no.
And it’s actually not the solution to education depending on the kind of solutions that you’re talking about. Some solutions, yes. Some solutions, no.
Destiny
Yeah. The only thing I’m looking at is, as I said earlier, just these minimum threshold things where it’s like, where can government make… Because you mentioned marginal, which I think is a really good way to look at things. Marginal costs and marginal utility to things where the first thousand dollars per student you spend might give you a huge return, but the extra 20,000 after is just a waste.
Yeah. The only thing I’m looking at is, as I said earlier, just these minimum threshold things where it’s like, where can government make… Because you mentioned marginal, which I think is a really good way to look at things. Marginal costs and marginal utility to things where the first thousand dollars per student you spend might give you a huge return, but the extra 20,000 after is just a waste.
Ben Shapiro
I think these are all pragmatic discussions.
I think these are all pragmatic discussions.
Destiny
Sure, of course.
Sure, of course.
Ben Shapiro
And actually, this is what we used to hash out in legislatures before they turned into platforms for people grandstanding. But yes, sure.
And actually, this is what we used to hash out in legislatures before they turned into platforms for people grandstanding. But yes, sure.
Destiny
Okay.
Okay.
Trump vs Biden
Lex Fridman
As we descend from the heavens of philosophical discussion of conservatism and liberalism, let’s go to the pragmatic muck of politics. Trump versus Biden. Between the two of them, who was in their first term, the better president? And thus who should win if the two of them are, in fact, our choices should win a second term in 2024. Ben?
As we descend from the heavens of philosophical discussion of conservatism and liberalism, let’s go to the pragmatic muck of politics. Trump versus Biden. Between the two of them, who was in their first term, the better president? And thus who should win if the two of them are, in fact, our choices should win a second term in 2024. Ben?
Ben Shapiro
Sure. So in terms of actual job performance, you have to separate it into a few categories. In terms of actual performance informed policy, I think Trump’s foreign policy record is significantly better than Biden’s, the world being on fire right now, being a fairly good example of that. And we can get into each aspect of the world being on fire and where the incentive structures came from and how all of that happened in a moment.
Sure. So in terms of actual job performance, you have to separate it into a few categories. In terms of actual performance informed policy, I think Trump’s foreign policy record is significantly better than Biden’s, the world being on fire right now, being a fairly good example of that. And we can get into each aspect of the world being on fire and where the incentive structures came from and how all of that happened in a moment.
When it comes to the economy, I think that Trump’s economic record was better than Biden’s. Doesn’t mean he didn’t overspend. He did. He wildly overspent. But he also had a very solid record of job creation. A huge percentage of the gains in the economy went to people on the lower end of the economic spectrum. Actually, the gross income to the average American was about $6,000 during his term. The unemployment rates were very, very low before COVID.
I think that you almost have to separate the Trump administration into sort of before COVID and during COVID, because COVID obviously is a black swan event, the most signal change in politics in our lifetime. And so governance during COVID is almost its own category, which we can discuss. But in terms of foreign policy, in terms of domestic policy, I think that Trump was significantly better than Biden has been. And that’s on the upside for Trump.
On the downside, for Biden, obviously you’re talking 40 or highs in inflation. You’re talking about savings being eaten away. You’re talking about everything being 20 to 30% more expensive. You’re talking about massive increases to the deficit, even at a rate that was unknown under Trump. The deficit under Trump raised by about a little under a trillion dollars every year up until 2020. Again, 2020 was COVID year, so everybody decided that we’re going to fire hose money at things.
But then Joe Biden continued to fire hose money at things in ’21, ’22, and ’23. That obviously is, in my opinion, bad economic policy. And then you get to the rhetoric, and you get to the stuff that Donald Trump says. As I’ve said before, my view is that on Donald Trump’s epitaph, on his gravestone, it will say, “Donald Trump. He’s said a lot of shit.” I think that Donald Trump does say a lot of things. I think that that is basically baked into the cake, which is why everyone who’s bewildered by the polls is ignoring human nature, which is at the beginning when you see something very shocking, it’s very shocking.
And then if you see it over and over and over, and over for years on end, it is no longer shocking. It’s just part of the background noise like tinnitus. It just becomes something that your brain adjusts for. And so do I like a lot of Donald Trump’s rhetoric? No, and I never have. Do I think that that is dispositive as to his presidency? No, I do not. When it comes to Biden, again, I think he’s underperforming economically. I think that his foreign policy has been really a problem.
Even the things I think he’s done right are, I think, band- aids for things that he created by doing wrong. And when it comes to his own rhetoric, you can argue that it’s grading on a curve because Trump was coming in with such wild rhetoric that just a maintenance of that wild rhetoric doesn’t really change again the baseline. For Biden, he came in the same way that Obama did on the soaring rhetoric of American unity.
Trump came in and he is like, “Listen, I’m the president for what I am, and I’m going to say the things I want to say. I’m beyond the toilet and I’m tweeting.” We’re like, “Okay, that’s what it is.” With Biden, he came in with, “I’m a president for all Americans. I’m trying to unify everybody.” And that pretty quickly broke down into a lot of oppositional language about his political opponents in particular, an attempt to lump in, for example, huge swaths of the conservative movement with the people who participated, for example, in January 6th, or who were fans of January 6th, and the sort of lumping in of everybody into MAGA Republicans who wasn’t personally signed on to an infrastructure bill with him.
That sort of stuff I think has been truly terrible. I thought his Philadelphia speech was truly terrible. And again, I think that you do have the problem of he is no longer capable of certainly rhetorically unifying the country when every speech from him feels like watching Nik Wallenda walk across a volcano on a tightrope. It really is like you’re just sort of waiting for him to fall.
I mean, it’s sad to say. I mean, the other day he was speaking for what was, in effect, his campaign kickoff, and this was in Valley Forge. I mean, Jill rushed up there. As soon as he was done, Jill rushed up there like she’d been shot out of a cannon to come and try and guide him away so he didn’t become the Shane Gillis Roomba. And that’s not really… Let’s put it this way. It does not quiet the soul to watch Joe Biden rhetorically. Again, that’s a different problem than Trump’s problem, but that’s my analysis.
Destiny
This is one of the areas where we get into this, I don’t understand if there’s brain-breaking happening or what’s going on. I don’t know what world we can ever live in where we say that Trump is less divisive for the country than Biden. I think it is so patently obvious. Trump is so divisive. Not only does Trump make an enemy out of every person in the opposition party, he makes an enemy out of his own party and every single person around him. We all watched him bully Jeff Sessions. We all watched him bully his own party on Twitter. We all watched all of these people walk away from him.
This is one of the areas where we get into this, I don’t understand if there’s brain-breaking happening or what’s going on. I don’t know what world we can ever live in where we say that Trump is less divisive for the country than Biden. I think it is so patently obvious. Trump is so divisive. Not only does Trump make an enemy out of every person in the opposition party, he makes an enemy out of his own party and every single person around him. We all watched him bully Jeff Sessions. We all watched him bully his own party on Twitter. We all watched all of these people walk away from him.
Even recently, I think the Secretary of Defense Esper and John Kelly, the chief of staff were saying, “I think Trump is a threat to democracy.” You’ve got all of his prior people that were around him, some of his closest allies. You’ve got Bill Barr that won’t co-sign a single thing that he says. You’ve got all these people that he used to work with that all say, “Trump is a horrible, evil person. He’s ineffective as a leader. He doesn’t accomplish anything.” And he didn’t.
To say that Biden has failed at bipartisanship when we’ve gotten the CHIPS Act, we’ve gotten the IRA, we’ve gotten the ARP, we’ve gotten the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill, when we’ve gotten all this major legislation that is working in this historically divided Congress as opposed to Trump that got us tax cuts and deficit spending. I don’t understand where we ever are in this world where Biden is somehow-
Destiny
I don’t understand where we ever are in this world where Biden is somehow more divisive than Trump. Even the speeches that Ben is bringing up, they always bring up… I remember that one. I think we might’ve even done it on our episode. The one speech that Biden gave where at one point that the background is red and probably-
I don’t understand where we ever are in this world where Biden is somehow more divisive than Trump. Even the speeches that Ben is bringing up, they always bring up… I remember that one. I think we might’ve even done it on our episode. The one speech that Biden gave where at one point that the background is red and probably-
Ben Shapiro
[inaudible 00:29:17] speech I referenced.
[inaudible 00:29:17] speech I referenced.
Destiny
… Yeah. And they’re like, “Oh my God, it’s over. This is the end.” And then meanwhile, you’ve got Donald Trump coming into office saying things like, “If you burn the flag, you should have your citizenship revoked” or talking about MSDNC, that I’m going to investigate every single one of these media organizations for corruptness. I’m going to open the libel and defamation laws. I’m going to take all of these guys to court. You’ve got this weird Project 2025 stuff where is it John Paschal, I think, is talking about we’re going to investigate all of these people and we’re going to try to throw crimes at all these people.
… Yeah. And they’re like, “Oh my God, it’s over. This is the end.” And then meanwhile, you’ve got Donald Trump coming into office saying things like, “If you burn the flag, you should have your citizenship revoked” or talking about MSDNC, that I’m going to investigate every single one of these media organizations for corruptness. I’m going to open the libel and defamation laws. I’m going to take all of these guys to court. You’ve got this weird Project 2025 stuff where is it John Paschal, I think, is talking about we’re going to investigate all of these people and we’re going to try to throw crimes at all these people.
Trump is like the most divisive president I think we’ve ever had, at least in my lifetime of being an American citizen. And the rhetoric from him is just, it’s on a whole other level in terms of the demonization of political opponents. I mean, this is a guy that’s known for giving his political opponents bad nicknames, right? That’s what Trump does.
It’s funny, but even as a resident of Florida, if Florida had another natural disaster, do you think Trump would withhold aid because you had… I think that was one of the few nice things that DeSantis actually said about Biden was that like, “Hey, listen, when the buildings collapsed in I think was Miami Beach.”
Ben Shapiro
Surfside. Yeah.
Surfside. Yeah.
Destiny
Yeah, that for the hurricane stuff, that Biden was there. He was saying, “If you guys need aid, however many billions, you can have it.” Meanwhile, Trump, I think, was threatening to withhold federal funding from blue states that wouldn’t… I think it had to do with the National Guard stuff, the deployment of the National Guard, that they weren’t doing enough for the riots and Trump was threatening to withhold aid from some of these blue states. Yeah, Trump is literally the most divisive person in the world. I don’t see how on any metric he has ever succeeding in the divisive category.
Yeah, that for the hurricane stuff, that Biden was there. He was saying, “If you guys need aid, however many billions, you can have it.” Meanwhile, Trump, I think, was threatening to withhold federal funding from blue states that wouldn’t… I think it had to do with the National Guard stuff, the deployment of the National Guard, that they weren’t doing enough for the riots and Trump was threatening to withhold aid from some of these blue states. Yeah, Trump is literally the most divisive person in the world. I don’t see how on any metric he has ever succeeding in the divisive category.
In terms of the economy. I do think it’s funny that Republicans are very keen to say that, “Well, we can’t really grade Trump post-COVID” because obviously, COVID messed everything up, which is fair. But pre-COVID, what did Trump do? He did deficit spending tax cuts. He presided over historical low interest rates and an economy that was already like blazing past the final years of Obama. We were posting all time highs in all the stock markets in 2013 onwards. Unemployment rates were falling. Now under Biden, unemployment rates are even lower than they were under Trump. But it sucks that for Trump, we can say, “Well, we can’t really hold him accountable for 2020. That was COVID.”
Well, all we have for Biden is post-COVID. We don’t have any pre-COVID Biden economy. And it was the same thing for Obama too, coming in right after the housing collapse as well. And it sucks that Republicans are able to walk out of office having burned the entire American society to the ground economically. And now, we’ve got to try to evaluate, “Okay, well, what did Obama do during his first two to three to four years just trying to recover from where the housing crash left it.” And then we look at Biden now who’s trying to recover from COVID and now we’re grading him on a totally different scale than what Trump is being graded on. Yeah, that sucks, I think. We can go into-
Lex Fridman
Can you comment on the foreign policy policy?
Can you comment on the foreign policy policy?
Destiny
On the foreign policy, I’m going to be honest, I am very liberal. I’m very not progressive. I’ll probably come off as more hawkish than others because I’m not a big fan of this, which also, I mean, if Ben agrees, I think people like Trump are going to be the most dovish, isolationist people ever. They don’t want to do anything internationally. They just want to protect America, be at home, protect our economy, don’t do anything internationally, which is why he was constantly undermining NATO and constantly attacking all of the European Union and cheering on the UK for Brexiting away from the EU.
On the foreign policy, I’m going to be honest, I am very liberal. I’m very not progressive. I’ll probably come off as more hawkish than others because I’m not a big fan of this, which also, I mean, if Ben agrees, I think people like Trump are going to be the most dovish, isolationist people ever. They don’t want to do anything internationally. They just want to protect America, be at home, protect our economy, don’t do anything internationally, which is why he was constantly undermining NATO and constantly attacking all of the European Union and cheering on the UK for Brexiting away from the EU.
I think that being said, I think that Biden has done a phenomenal job when it comes to foreign policy. I think that the coalition building was so important for Ukraine, Russia, and I’m so happy that he decided to go to our European allies and our NATO allies and try to build a coalition of people to help Ukraine, so that that wasn’t only the United States.
Personally, especially after doing a whole bunch of research, I do tend to side with Israel over Palestine in a lot of the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. I’m glad that Biden, while remaining a staunch defender of Israel, is trying to rein in some of the more aggressive posturing towards the Palestinians and the Gaza Strip. I’m proud that Biden said, “Hey, listen, we are going to delay some of these attacks. Hey, listen, we are going to allow humanitarian aid here. Hey, listen, we are going to try to not kill as many Palestinian people down there” while still signaling that he would be a staunch supporter of Israel in the conflict, assuming the civilian casualties don’t go too high.
For foreign policy, I mean, blemishes, I mean, the biggest one you can give to Biden is Afghanistan and the pull-out there. But man, are we going to talk about the Inspector General report that says that one of the biggest reasons why the Afghanistan pull-out was so disastrous was because of the Doha Accords where Donald Trump headed talks that didn’t even include the Afghanistan army. I mean, these were disasters. When Biden took office, we had 2,500 troops left in Afghanistan. What was the options even afforded to Biden at that point?
Obviously, you’ve got the abandonment of the Kurds in Northern Syria for the Turkish armies to lay waste to. You’re talking about Iran and North Korea, although I’m not sure where Ben would land on those, but yeah, that’s a broadly [inaudible 00:34:11].
Lex Fridman
That’s a lot from both, right? You want to pick at something where you disagree with here?
That’s a lot from both, right? You want to pick at something where you disagree with here?
Ben Shapiro
Well, I mean, there’s a lot. So I want to ask a few questions on each one of these.
Well, I mean, there’s a lot. So I want to ask a few questions on each one of these.
Destiny
Yeah, sure.
Yeah, sure.
Ben Shapiro
So let’s talk about divisiveness for a second. So there’s no one who can make the case that Donald Trump is not divisive. Yeah, of course, he’s incredibly divisive. It’s a given. Do you treat Biden’s rhetoric with the same level of seriousness that you treat Trump’s rhetoric, or I should probably put that the other way around. Should we treat Trump’s rhetoric with the same level of seriousness as Joe Biden or, say, Barack Obama’s rhetoric?
So let’s talk about divisiveness for a second. So there’s no one who can make the case that Donald Trump is not divisive. Yeah, of course, he’s incredibly divisive. It’s a given. Do you treat Biden’s rhetoric with the same level of seriousness that you treat Trump’s rhetoric, or I should probably put that the other way around. Should we treat Trump’s rhetoric with the same level of seriousness as Joe Biden or, say, Barack Obama’s rhetoric?
Destiny
I’m going to try to be concise when I say this. Broadly speaking, especially in studying Israel, Palestine and Ukraine, Russia, I try not to take politicians at their word because sometimes, they just say stuff to say stuff. I understand that. But broadly speaking, I’m going to look at the rhetoric and the actions and I am going to grade them the same. So yes, I would hold Biden and Trump to the same standard.
I’m going to try to be concise when I say this. Broadly speaking, especially in studying Israel, Palestine and Ukraine, Russia, I try not to take politicians at their word because sometimes, they just say stuff to say stuff. I understand that. But broadly speaking, I’m going to look at the rhetoric and the actions and I am going to grade them the same. So yes, I would hold Biden and Trump to the same standard.
Ben Shapiro
Right, so my feeling is, and this is one area where for clarification, we’re going to have a division, is that I of course don’t treat Trump’s rhetoric in the same way that I treat Biden’s or Obama’s. He’s utterly uncalibrated and he says whatever he wants to at any given time and it doesn’t even match up with his policy very often.
Right, so my feeling is, and this is one area where for clarification, we’re going to have a division, is that I of course don’t treat Trump’s rhetoric in the same way that I treat Biden’s or Obama’s. He’s utterly uncalibrated and he says whatever he wants to at any given time and it doesn’t even match up with his policy very often.
Destiny
Can I ask you, for our head of state, our chief executive, shouldn’t rhetoric be arguably one of the most important things that he does?
Can I ask you, for our head of state, our chief executive, shouldn’t rhetoric be arguably one of the most important things that he does?
Ben Shapiro
The answer would be yes. And now, I’ve been given a choice between a person who I think in calibrated ways says things that are divisive and a person who in uncalibrated ways says things that are divisive. And so the evidence that Joe Biden is divisive is every poll taken since essentially August of 2021. He is, by all available metrics, incredibly divisive. A huge percentage of Americans are deeply unhappy not only with his performance, but don’t believe he’s a uniter. That’s just the reality. And that may just be a reflection. I mean, honestly, we may be putting too much on Trump or Biden personally. It may just be that the American people themselves are rhetorically divided because of social media, and social media can, in fact, be assessable and [inaudible 00:36:02].
The answer would be yes. And now, I’ve been given a choice between a person who I think in calibrated ways says things that are divisive and a person who in uncalibrated ways says things that are divisive. And so the evidence that Joe Biden is divisive is every poll taken since essentially August of 2021. He is, by all available metrics, incredibly divisive. A huge percentage of Americans are deeply unhappy not only with his performance, but don’t believe he’s a uniter. That’s just the reality. And that may just be a reflection. I mean, honestly, we may be putting too much on Trump or Biden personally. It may just be that the American people themselves are rhetorically divided because of social media, and social media can, in fact, be assessable and [inaudible 00:36:02].
Destiny
One thing that I would ask you about that, though…
One thing that I would ask you about that, though…
Ben Shapiro
Sure.
Sure.
Destiny
… is I agree, especially when you look at the favorability, but sometimes, when I look at these polls, when you start to disaggregate them by party, I wonder if it’s actually is Biden historically divisive or I’m trying to think of a really polite way to say this. The people that like Trump worship Trump. I don’t know. One of the most prescient things that Trump could have probably ever said was that I could kill someone on Fifth Street and nobody would hold him accountable. So is it really that Biden’s historically divisive, or is it that every single Trump supporter will always say that Trump is great [inaudible 00:36:32].
… is I agree, especially when you look at the favorability, but sometimes, when I look at these polls, when you start to disaggregate them by party, I wonder if it’s actually is Biden historically divisive or I’m trying to think of a really polite way to say this. The people that like Trump worship Trump. I don’t know. One of the most prescient things that Trump could have probably ever said was that I could kill someone on Fifth Street and nobody would hold him accountable. So is it really that Biden’s historically divisive, or is it that every single Trump supporter will always say that Trump is great [inaudible 00:36:32].
Ben Shapiro
No, the reason I would say that Biden is, in fact, historically divisive is because Republicans felt much more strongly about Barack Obama than Joe Biden, actually.
No, the reason I would say that Biden is, in fact, historically divisive is because Republicans felt much more strongly about Barack Obama than Joe Biden, actually.
Destiny
I agree. But they didn’t feel as strongly about Trump as they did about Romney or McCain. Right?
I agree. But they didn’t feel as strongly about Trump as they did about Romney or McCain. Right?
Ben Shapiro
In what way? I mean-
In what way? I mean-
Destiny
The allegiance to Trump.
The allegiance to Trump.
Ben Shapiro
… oh, no, there’s certainly more allegiance to Trump than there is to Romney or McCain, largely because Trump won in 2016. But beyond that, the point that I’m making is that if you’re looking at the stats in terms of divisiveness, Republicans always find the Democratic president divisive. The question is where the rest of the country is. And right now, there are a lot of Democrats who either don’t agree with Biden or find him divisive. There are a lot of independents who find them divisive.
… oh, no, there’s certainly more allegiance to Trump than there is to Romney or McCain, largely because Trump won in 2016. But beyond that, the point that I’m making is that if you’re looking at the stats in terms of divisiveness, Republicans always find the Democratic president divisive. The question is where the rest of the country is. And right now, there are a lot of Democrats who either don’t agree with Biden or find him divisive. There are a lot of independents who find them divisive.
So when we’re comparing these things, I don’t think they’re leagues apart in terms of the divisive effects of what they say, right? And I’m separating that off from the inherent content of what they say because obviously, what Trump says is more divisive just on the raw level. I mean, if he’s insulting people as opposed to Joe Biden doing MAGA Republicans, if I were to just… if I were an alien come down from space and look at these two statements, I’d say this one’s more divisive than this one. But then, there’s the reality of being a human being in the world and that is everyone has baked Donald Trump into the cake. And Joe Biden, again, started off with a patina of being non-divisive and now has emerged as divisive.
If you don’t mind, I actually want to get to the foreign policy questions because this one is actually slightly less interesting to me.
Destiny
Sure. Can I ask just one quick thing, I guess.
Sure. Can I ask just one quick thing, I guess.
Ben Shapiro
[inaudible 00:37:48], go for it.
[inaudible 00:37:48], go for it.
Destiny
We can say the reality of it and we can look at opinion polls. What if we look at legislative accomplishments? Like Biden is working on a 50-50 divided Senate. Donald Trump had both House of Congress and the Supreme Court and got no major legislation passed.
We can say the reality of it and we can look at opinion polls. What if we look at legislative accomplishments? Like Biden is working on a 50-50 divided Senate. Donald Trump had both House of Congress and the Supreme Court and got no major legislation passed.
Ben Shapiro
Well, I mean, he did lose Congress in 2018.
Well, I mean, he did lose Congress in 2018.
Destiny
But prior to that, we got the Infrastructure bill, I think, in one year, which Trump promised for his entire presidency, didn’t get anywhere on it.
But prior to that, we got the Infrastructure bill, I think, in one year, which Trump promised for his entire presidency, didn’t get anywhere on it.
Ben Shapiro
I mean, yes, his Republican base was not in favor of mass spending on infrastructure and neither am I. So there’s that. I think that’s mostly a state and local issue.
I mean, yes, his Republican base was not in favor of mass spending on infrastructure and neither am I. So there’s that. I think that’s mostly a state and local issue.
Destiny
But they were in favor of mass spending for tax cuts?
But they were in favor of mass spending for tax cuts?
Ben Shapiro
That’s not a spending. It-
That’s not a spending. It-
Destiny
I mean, effectively it is, right?
I mean, effectively it is, right?
Ben Shapiro
Effectively, it’s not.
Effectively, it’s not.
Destiny
If you’re cutting tax receipts, but you’re not changing the level of spending like Biden did with the IRA.
If you’re cutting tax receipts, but you’re not changing the level of spending like Biden did with the IRA.
Ben Shapiro
Again, we have a fundamental philosophical difference here. I think that when the government takes my money, that is not the government somehow being more fiscally responsible, and when the government allows me to keep my money, I don’t see that as the government spending. I see that as my money and the government is taking less of it.
Again, we have a fundamental philosophical difference here. I think that when the government takes my money, that is not the government somehow being more fiscally responsible, and when the government allows me to keep my money, I don’t see that as the government spending. I see that as my money and the government is taking less of it.
Destiny
That’s great, but at the end of the day, the government is still going to be in a deficit spending and they’re going to have to borrow money from the Treasury.
That’s great, but at the end of the day, the government is still going to be in a deficit spending and they’re going to have to borrow money from the Treasury.
Ben Shapiro
Right, we have a spending problem, in other words, not a receipts problem is the case that I’m making.
Right, we have a spending problem, in other words, not a receipts problem is the case that I’m making.
Destiny
Right.
Right.
Ben Shapiro
The problem with Donald Trump is not that he lowered taxes. The United States has one of the most progressive tax systems on the planet, and in fact, if you wish to have a European style social welfare state, what you actually need is to tax the middle class to death, the reality is that the top 20% of the American population pays literally all net taxes in the United States after state benefits and all of this.
The problem with Donald Trump is not that he lowered taxes. The United States has one of the most progressive tax systems on the planet, and in fact, if you wish to have a European style social welfare state, what you actually need is to tax the middle class to death, the reality is that the top 20% of the American population pays literally all net taxes in the United States after state benefits and all of this.
Destiny
Sure.
Sure.
Ben Shapiro
So if you actually wanted to have the kind of social welfare state that many liberals seem to want to have like Northern Europe, for example, you’d actually have to tax people who make 40, 50, $60,000.
So if you actually wanted to have the kind of social welfare state that many liberals seem to want to have like Northern Europe, for example, you’d actually have to tax people who make 40, 50, $60,000.
Destiny
And I don’t want that. I agree with that, but how do you explain the lack of legislation, I mean, if he’s such a uniter.
And I don’t want that. I agree with that, but how do you explain the lack of legislation, I mean, if he’s such a uniter.
Ben Shapiro
Because I think the Republican party itself is quite divided, and I think that Trump can-
Because I think the Republican party itself is quite divided, and I think that Trump can-
Destiny
But isn’t that his job? He’s the head of the Republican Party. He’s the president, Republican President of the United States.
But isn’t that his job? He’s the head of the Republican Party. He’s the president, Republican President of the United States.
Ben Shapiro
I mean, again, I don’t think that Joe Biden has passed wildly historic legislation, other than-
I mean, again, I don’t think that Joe Biden has passed wildly historic legislation, other than-
Destiny
The infrastructure bill was the largest [inaudible 00:39:38].
The infrastructure bill was the largest [inaudible 00:39:38].
Ben Shapiro
So here’s the problem. If you’re a Republican, the only bills that you can get consensus on tend to be bills that either… let’s be real about this, that are tax cuts because as you would, I think, agree with. When it comes to polling data, Americans constantly say they want to cut the government and then the minute you ask them which program, they have no idea what they’re…
So here’s the problem. If you’re a Republican, the only bills that you can get consensus on tend to be bills that either… let’s be real about this, that are tax cuts because as you would, I think, agree with. When it comes to polling data, Americans constantly say they want to cut the government and then the minute you ask them which program, they have no idea what they’re…
Destiny
Right.
Right.
Ben Shapiro
… right, exactly. And so it’s much harder to come up with a bill to cut things than it is to come up with a bill to add things, which is why spending was out of control under Trump as well. But there are some Republicans who still don’t want to spend on those things, right? So inherently, the task that, this goes back to the first question, the task that Republicans think government is there to do is different than the task that Democrats think that government is there to do. So the way that the very metric of success for a Democratic president versus Republican president, namely, for example, pieces of legislation passed. As a Republican, one of my goals is to pass nearly no legislation because I don’t actually want the government involved in more areas of our life.
… right, exactly. And so it’s much harder to come up with a bill to cut things than it is to come up with a bill to add things, which is why spending was out of control under Trump as well. But there are some Republicans who still don’t want to spend on those things, right? So inherently, the task that, this goes back to the first question, the task that Republicans think government is there to do is different than the task that Democrats think that government is there to do. So the way that the very metric of success for a Democratic president versus Republican president, namely, for example, pieces of legislation passed. As a Republican, one of my goals is to pass nearly no legislation because I don’t actually want the government involved in more areas of our life.
I want to ask a couple of questions on the foreign policy. Sure.
Destiny
Yeah. Okay, wait, real quick, just so for instance, Donald Trump wanted to punish China and he wanted to bring microprocessor manufacturing to the United States. Biden did that with legislation with the CHIPS Act. You talk about spending being out of control, and I mean, I can agree with that. I think anybody that looks at the numbers has to agree with that. But why not pass legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, which is at least spending neutral, right? Why are there not bills where Donald Trump could take-
Yeah. Okay, wait, real quick, just so for instance, Donald Trump wanted to punish China and he wanted to bring microprocessor manufacturing to the United States. Biden did that with legislation with the CHIPS Act. You talk about spending being out of control, and I mean, I can agree with that. I think anybody that looks at the numbers has to agree with that. But why not pass legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, which is at least spending neutral, right? Why are there not bills where Donald Trump could take-
Ben Shapiro
Well, first of all, I think that whenever the government says something is spending neutral, it rarely materializes that way. That is not going to be a spending neutral bill. [inaudible 00:41:02].
Well, first of all, I think that whenever the government says something is spending neutral, it rarely materializes that way. That is not going to be a spending neutral bill. [inaudible 00:41:02].
Destiny
Sure, but there’s difference between at least they say it’s spending neutral versus this is a $500 billion bill over 10 years.
Sure, but there’s difference between at least they say it’s spending neutral versus this is a $500 billion bill over 10 years.
Ben Shapiro
Well, but again, I don’t see a tax cut as a matter of spending neutrality. The big problem is they keep spending, not that they are allowing me to keep the money that I earned and they did not earn, but [inaudible 00:41:16].
Well, but again, I don’t see a tax cut as a matter of spending neutrality. The big problem is they keep spending, not that they are allowing me to keep the money that I earned and they did not earn, but [inaudible 00:41:16].
Destiny
Okay. So then just to understand, so if somebody just did massive reductions in tax receipts, so tax cut after tax cut after tax cut, but they didn’t change spending at all, you wouldn’t consider that an increase in deficit spending or out of control spending. You would just say they’re just tax cuts?
Okay. So then just to understand, so if somebody just did massive reductions in tax receipts, so tax cut after tax cut after tax cut, but they didn’t change spending at all, you wouldn’t consider that an increase in deficit spending or out of control spending. You would just say they’re just tax cuts?
Ben Shapiro
No, the opposite. I would consider it a wild overspending, meaning-
No, the opposite. I would consider it a wild overspending, meaning-
Destiny
Okay. So then was it under Trump then when he did the tax [inaudible 00:41:36]?
Okay. So then was it under Trump then when he did the tax [inaudible 00:41:36]?
Ben Shapiro
… I mean, the deficit spending, by the way, under Biden is way worse than it was under Trump.
… I mean, the deficit spending, by the way, under Biden is way worse than it was under Trump.
Destiny
Of course, but we’re in post-COVID, right?
Of course, but we’re in post-COVID, right?
Ben Shapiro
COVID ended effectively… I mean, you live in Florida. COVID effectively ended in the state of Florida by the middle of 2021.
COVID ended effectively… I mean, you live in Florida. COVID effectively ended in the state of Florida by the middle of 2021.
Destiny
Yeah [inaudible 00:41:47].
Yeah [inaudible 00:41:47].
Ben Shapiro
Even if you’re a vaccine fan, by April, May of 2021, there was wide availability of vaccines, whether or not you like the vaccines, and at that point, we were done. [inaudible 00:41:55].
Even if you’re a vaccine fan, by April, May of 2021, there was wide availability of vaccines, whether or not you like the vaccines, and at that point, we were done. [inaudible 00:41:55].
Destiny
I agree. But we’re in a post… how many trillions of dollars have been dumped in worldwide that are leading to inflation, right? The inflation is a worldwide issue right now because of the economy shutting down for a year or two. It’s not like those effects are gone in one year, right? COVID might be gone, but the after effects of all the stimulus spending and the unemployment and everything else.
I agree. But we’re in a post… how many trillions of dollars have been dumped in worldwide that are leading to inflation, right? The inflation is a worldwide issue right now because of the economy shutting down for a year or two. It’s not like those effects are gone in one year, right? COVID might be gone, but the after effects of all the stimulus spending and the unemployment and everything else.
Ben Shapiro
The definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. So pouring more money on top of that makes for more inflation. That’s what it does.
The definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. So pouring more money on top of that makes for more inflation. That’s what it does.
Destiny
Sure. I agree. But there’s also the definition of when do you deficit spend is when economies are headed for recessions, right, rather than when economies are doing really well that we’re under Trump and he was deficit spending, whereas Biden can at least make the argument that I ought to be deficit spending because the economy is heading for potential recession.
Sure. I agree. But there’s also the definition of when do you deficit spend is when economies are headed for recessions, right, rather than when economies are doing really well that we’re under Trump and he was deficit spending, whereas Biden can at least make the argument that I ought to be deficit spending because the economy is heading for potential recession.
Ben Shapiro
So here’s the thing. I don’t think that the economy was actually headed for a recession. In fact, if you look at the economics statistics-
So here’s the thing. I don’t think that the economy was actually headed for a recession. In fact, if you look at the economics statistics-
Destiny
And every economist said it was.
And every economist said it was.
Ben Shapiro
… no, [inaudible 00:42:39].
… no, [inaudible 00:42:39].
Destiny
They’re still saying that there’s a recession coming, right?
They’re still saying that there’s a recession coming, right?
Ben Shapiro
But that was largely because of the after effects of inflation, meaning if you inflate the economy, what you are going to end up doing is bursting a bubble and then when that bubble bursts, you’ll get a recession. I mean, that was the basic idea, right? The idea, the question was whether you’re going to get a soft landing. But if you actually look at, for example, the employment statistics or the economic growth statistics in the United States, what they look like under the last year’s Obama and then Trump, I mean, this is what the chart looks like. Because it looks like this and then it hits March of 2020. It goes like that, right, and then by September, it bounces back up, right? It’s a V-shaped recovery, and then it starts to peter out.
But that was largely because of the after effects of inflation, meaning if you inflate the economy, what you are going to end up doing is bursting a bubble and then when that bubble bursts, you’ll get a recession. I mean, that was the basic idea, right? The idea, the question was whether you’re going to get a soft landing. But if you actually look at, for example, the employment statistics or the economic growth statistics in the United States, what they look like under the last year’s Obama and then Trump, I mean, this is what the chart looks like. Because it looks like this and then it hits March of 2020. It goes like that, right, and then by September, it bounces back up, right? It’s a V-shaped recovery, and then it starts to peter out.
Destiny
Sure. A lot because of the American Recovery Plan, right, that Biden did as well.
Sure. A lot because of the American Recovery Plan, right, that Biden did as well.
Ben Shapiro
I mean-
I mean-
Destiny
4 million jobs. Yeah.
4 million jobs. Yeah.
Ben Shapiro
… no, I’m not going to attribute it to that because the rates of growth in job growth from September, October, November were actually very similar to the rates of job growth after Joe Biden took office. What you see is actually kind of a straight line. I mean, what the chart looks like-
… no, I’m not going to attribute it to that because the rates of growth in job growth from September, October, November were actually very similar to the rates of job growth after Joe Biden took office. What you see is actually kind of a straight line. I mean, what the chart looks like-
Lex Fridman
Let’s get on.
Let’s get on.
Ben Shapiro
In any case, okay, on the foreign policy stuff, this is getting abstruse.
In any case, okay, on the foreign policy stuff, this is getting abstruse.
Foreign policy
Destiny
[inaudible 00:43:31].
[inaudible 00:43:31].
Ben Shapiro
But on the foreign policy stuff, so the questions that I have with regard to Biden on foreign policy, very, very simple question. Do you think that the situation in the Middle East is better now than it was under Donald Trump?
But on the foreign policy stuff, so the questions that I have with regard to Biden on foreign policy, very, very simple question. Do you think that the situation in the Middle East is better now than it was under Donald Trump?
Destiny
Probably. That’s a hard one.
Probably. That’s a hard one.
Ben Shapiro
Why?
Why?
Destiny
The factors that I’m making right now are obviously you’ve got the Israel- Palestinian War that’s going on right now, which is kind of bad, but broadly speaking, I’m not sure how much that affects the Middle East as much as the collapse of Syria. 2013 Syrian Civil War sent millions of immigrants throughout all of Europe-
The factors that I’m making right now are obviously you’ve got the Israel- Palestinian War that’s going on right now, which is kind of bad, but broadly speaking, I’m not sure how much that affects the Middle East as much as the collapse of Syria. 2013 Syrian Civil War sent millions of immigrants throughout all of Europe-
Ben Shapiro
Which was under…
Which was under…
Destiny
… which was under Obama and continued under Trump.
… which was under Obama and continued under Trump.
Ben Shapiro
Right.
Right.
Destiny
Trump didn’t do anything to alleviate any of the Syrian Civil War. [inaudible 00:44:18].
Trump didn’t do anything to alleviate any of the Syrian Civil War. [inaudible 00:44:18].
Ben Shapiro
Why did Syria end up as a preserve of Russia again?
Why did Syria end up as a preserve of Russia again?
Destiny
How did Syria end up as a preserve of Russia?
How did Syria end up as a preserve of Russia?
Ben Shapiro
Yes. Why did it end up being essentially a client state of Russia?
Yes. Why did it end up being essentially a client state of Russia?
Destiny
I know that Putin enjoys access to the ports down there. I don’t know. You tell me.
I know that Putin enjoys access to the ports down there. I don’t know. You tell me.
Ben Shapiro
I mean, the reason is because Barack Obama suggested that there was a red line that would be drawn in the face of chemical weapons used.
I mean, the reason is because Barack Obama suggested that there was a red line that would be drawn in the face of chemical weapons used.
Destiny
Sure.
Sure.
Ben Shapiro
Bashir Assad then used chemical weapons in Syria, and Barack Obama was unwilling to then essentially create consequences for Syria in the form of any sort of Western strike and so instead, he outsourced it to Russia. This is 2013, 2014.
Bashir Assad then used chemical weapons in Syria, and Barack Obama was unwilling to then essentially create consequences for Syria in the form of any sort of Western strike and so instead, he outsourced it to Russia. This is 2013, 2014.
Destiny
Sure. Do you think there might’ve been some hesitancy after seeing how Libya ended up that maybe us intervening [inaudible 00:44:55].
Sure. Do you think there might’ve been some hesitancy after seeing how Libya ended up that maybe us intervening [inaudible 00:44:55].
Ben Shapiro
Who’s president during Libya? Yeah. I mean, [inaudible 00:44:57].
Who’s president during Libya? Yeah. I mean, [inaudible 00:44:57].
Destiny
But what does that have to do with anything, though? I’m just saying there might’ve been a mistake learned.
But what does that have to do with anything, though? I’m just saying there might’ve been a mistake learned.
Ben Shapiro
The point that I’m making is that actually the Middle East, I mean just historically speaking, was historically good under Donald Trump. I mean, it’s very difficult to make the case that either before or after Trump were better than during Donald Trump.
The point that I’m making is that actually the Middle East, I mean just historically speaking, was historically good under Donald Trump. I mean, it’s very difficult to make the case that either before or after Trump were better than during Donald Trump.
Destiny
Was it? I don’t think that Trump contributed to the Syrian situation improving much. He wrecked a lot of-
Was it? I don’t think that Trump contributed to the Syrian situation improving much. He wrecked a lot of-
Ben Shapiro
I mean, he wrecked ISIS. He did wreck ISIS, which was in the [inaudible 00:45:20].
I mean, he wrecked ISIS. He did wreck ISIS, which was in the [inaudible 00:45:20].
Destiny
I mean, ISIS had been getting wrecked by the Kurds in Iraq, by every single person, by Assad’s army, by Putin, by Turkey.
I mean, ISIS had been getting wrecked by the Kurds in Iraq, by every single person, by Assad’s army, by Putin, by Turkey.
Ben Shapiro
[inaudible 00:45:26].
[inaudible 00:45:26].
Destiny
Literally, everybody was fighting against ISIS at that point.
Literally, everybody was fighting against ISIS at that point.
Ben Shapiro
There’s a spike in violence and then the Trump… I mean, you get credit for when you’re president, presumably. I mean, things got better with ISIS under Trump.
There’s a spike in violence and then the Trump… I mean, you get credit for when you’re president, presumably. I mean, things got better with ISIS under Trump.
Destiny
I mean, yeah, they did. I mean-
I mean, yeah, they did. I mean-
Ben Shapiro
Things got worse with ISIS under Obama.
Things got worse with ISIS under Obama.
Destiny
… for sure.
… for sure.
Ben Shapiro
He called them the JV squad, and then they became not the JV squad.
He called them the JV squad, and then they became not the JV squad.
Destiny
But I don’t know if ISIS is originating in Syria and Baghdadi and all of the growth of that is necessarily Obama’s fault. I know that we like to say that Obama created ISIS. I don’t know if you say that, but I’ve heard that saying a lot. I think that’s a little bit simplistic. I don’t think that when I’m looking at actions that presidents have taken, the biggest criticism I have for Middle Eastern policy is I think the Doha accords were a disaster and I think that’s one of the biggest blemishes that we have right now. I would also argue that moving the embassy to Jerusalem was also kind of silly and arguably contributed to some of the conflict we see right now between [inaudible 00:46:16].
But I don’t know if ISIS is originating in Syria and Baghdadi and all of the growth of that is necessarily Obama’s fault. I know that we like to say that Obama created ISIS. I don’t know if you say that, but I’ve heard that saying a lot. I think that’s a little bit simplistic. I don’t think that when I’m looking at actions that presidents have taken, the biggest criticism I have for Middle Eastern policy is I think the Doha accords were a disaster and I think that’s one of the biggest blemishes that we have right now. I would also argue that moving the embassy to Jerusalem was also kind of silly and arguably contributed to some of the conflict we see right now between [inaudible 00:46:16].
Ben Shapiro
No, I’ll argue precisely the opposite, especially given the fact that after the movement of the embassy to Jerusalem, the Abraham Accords continued to sign and actually expand and that if Donald Trump had been elected, I have no doubt in my mind that Saudi Arabia would now be a part of the Abraham Accords. In fact, that was basically pre-negotiated and then when Joe Biden took office, Joe Biden took a very anti-Saudi stance on a wide variety of issues. The biggest single effect in the Middle East of Joe Biden’s presidency, and again, I agree with you that not every foreign policy issue can be laid at the hands of a president. Joe Biden’s main approach to the Middle East was very similar to the Obama approach, which is why the Middle East was chaotic under Obama and chaotic under Biden and that was to alienate allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel and instead, to try to make common cause or cut deals with Iran.
No, I’ll argue precisely the opposite, especially given the fact that after the movement of the embassy to Jerusalem, the Abraham Accords continued to sign and actually expand and that if Donald Trump had been elected, I have no doubt in my mind that Saudi Arabia would now be a part of the Abraham Accords. In fact, that was basically pre-negotiated and then when Joe Biden took office, Joe Biden took a very anti-Saudi stance on a wide variety of issues. The biggest single effect in the Middle East of Joe Biden’s presidency, and again, I agree with you that not every foreign policy issue can be laid at the hands of a president. Joe Biden’s main approach to the Middle East was very similar to the Obama approach, which is why the Middle East was chaotic under Obama and chaotic under Biden and that was to alienate allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel and instead, to try to make common cause or cut deals with Iran.
What that did is incentivize terrorism from Iran. What we’re watching in the Middle East is Iran attempting to use every one of its terror proxies in the Middle East and it was specifically launched in an attempt to avoid what Biden actually was trying to do, which was good, which was after two years of failure with Saudi Arabia, try to bring them into the Abraham Accords, right? That was what was burgeoning at the end of last year and Iran saw that and Iran decided that they were going to throw grenade into the middle of those negotiations by essentially activating Hamas. Hamas activates. Hamas commits October 7th. Israel, as a sovereign nation state, has to respond to the murder of 1,200 of its citizens in the taking, kidnapping of 240. Israel has to do that not only to go after its own hostages and try to restore them, but also to reestablish military deterrence in the most violent region of the world.
Hezbollah gets active on Israel’s northern border. Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy. They get active on the northern border. The Houthis in Yemen get active. The only reason all this is happening at the same time is because Iran is doing this, right?
Destiny
[inaudible 00:47:53].
[inaudible 00:47:53].
Ben Shapiro
Not just that, they’re threatening global shipping.
Not just that, they’re threatening global shipping.
Destiny
Sure.
Sure.
Ben Shapiro
If you’re talking about the effects of global supply lines, which I totally agree, had a major inflationary effect on the economy, thanks to COVID. Right now, the cost of shipping is nearly double what it was just a few weeks ago and that is because a ragtag group of Houthi barbarians are attacking international shipping and forcing everybody to stop using the Bab-el-Mandeb freight, instead of going around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.
If you’re talking about the effects of global supply lines, which I totally agree, had a major inflationary effect on the economy, thanks to COVID. Right now, the cost of shipping is nearly double what it was just a few weeks ago and that is because a ragtag group of Houthi barbarians are attacking international shipping and forcing everybody to stop using the Bab-el-Mandeb freight, instead of going around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.
Destiny
Sure.
Sure.
Ben Shapiro
All of that is the result of the fact that Joe Biden reoriented the United States in the very early days in favor of a more pro-Iranian stance. He appointed Robert Malley to negotiate the Iran deal who, as it turns out, was using proxies. Many of his aides were actually taking money from Iran. The Biden administration, literally one of their first acts was to delist the Houthis as a terror organization and sanctions against the Houthis. These are all moves that Biden made very early on. They were disastrous moves. But when it comes to domestic policy, I think he hasn’t been nearly as damaging in domestic policy as-
All of that is the result of the fact that Joe Biden reoriented the United States in the very early days in favor of a more pro-Iranian stance. He appointed Robert Malley to negotiate the Iran deal who, as it turns out, was using proxies. Many of his aides were actually taking money from Iran. The Biden administration, literally one of their first acts was to delist the Houthis as a terror organization and sanctions against the Houthis. These are all moves that Biden made very early on. They were disastrous moves. But when it comes to domestic policy, I think he hasn’t been nearly as damaging in domestic policy as-
Destiny
Wait, wait. Domestic policy. Let’s do…
Wait, wait. Domestic policy. Let’s do…
Ben Shapiro
Foreign policy.
Foreign policy.
Destiny
… sure, sure. So just on a couple of Middle Eastern things. So one of the big things that threw the Middle East into disaster was what we all traumatized by it now was the Iraq invasion [inaudible 00:48:56] Republican president.
… sure, sure. So just on a couple of Middle Eastern things. So one of the big things that threw the Middle East into disaster was what we all traumatized by it now was the Iraq invasion [inaudible 00:48:56] Republican president.
Ben Shapiro
Sure.
Sure.
Destiny
You hear that, right?
You hear that, right?
Ben Shapiro
Sure.
Sure.
Destiny
The deposition of Saddam Hussein and everything that followed after probably contributed more to the growth of ISIS and the destabilization of that entire region probably more than anything else. I think that prior to Bush for Clinton and even at the beginning of Bush’s presidency, we were on some kind of road to normalcy with Iran, which I think has to happen whether we liked them or not until Bush, for whatever reason, decides to throw Iran into the Axis of Evil.
The deposition of Saddam Hussein and everything that followed after probably contributed more to the growth of ISIS and the destabilization of that entire region probably more than anything else. I think that prior to Bush for Clinton and even at the beginning of Bush’s presidency, we were on some kind of road to normalcy with Iran, which I think has to happen whether we liked them or not until Bush, for whatever reason, decides to throw Iran into the Axis of Evil.
Ben Shapiro
You emphasized that we’re on a road to normalcy with Iran in the 1990s.
You emphasized that we’re on a road to normalcy with Iran in the 1990s.
Destiny
We do in the… wait, what?
We do in the… wait, what?
Ben Shapiro
That we are on a road to normalcy with Iran in the 1990s.
That we are on a road to normalcy with Iran in the 1990s.
Destiny
My understanding is that, yeah, from the late ’90s and prior to the Axis of Evil labeling of Iran, that there was going to be some path forward to where we could start to normalize relationships with them.
My understanding is that, yeah, from the late ’90s and prior to the Axis of Evil labeling of Iran, that there was going to be some path forward to where we could start to normalize relationships with them.
Ben Shapiro
I find that very difficult to believe, and I don’t see a lot of evidence. I mean, we can just disagree on that.
I find that very difficult to believe, and I don’t see a lot of evidence. I mean, we can just disagree on that.
Destiny
Sure, okay, yeah, sure. We can disagree on that, but I know that once I [inaudible 00:49:43].
Sure, okay, yeah, sure. We can disagree on that, but I know that once I [inaudible 00:49:43].
Ben Shapiro
By the way, the after effects, just a quick note, the after effect of the Iraq War that was the most devastating was the increase in power of Iran.
By the way, the after effects, just a quick note, the after effect of the Iraq War that was the most devastating was the increase in power of Iran.
Destiny
I agree, yeah, because of the destabilization of Iraq and Iraq not having a government there that was functional for at least a decade.
I agree, yeah, because of the destabilization of Iraq and Iraq not having a government there that was functional for at least a decade.
Ben Shapiro
And was, in fact, a Sunni government, right? Originally, it was a Sunni government. The Sunni army was one of the worst things that the Bush administration did.
And was, in fact, a Sunni government, right? Originally, it was a Sunni government. The Sunni army was one of the worst things that the Bush administration did.
Destiny
Banning all the former Ba’ath party [inaudible 00:50:03].
Banning all the former Ba’ath party [inaudible 00:50:03].
Ben Shapiro
Sectarian, yeah.
Sectarian, yeah.
Destiny
All horrible under a Republican president.
All horrible under a Republican president.
Ben Shapiro
Don’t disagree.
Don’t disagree.
Destiny
That that probably contributed more to ISIS, to the growth of power in Iran, maybe even to the destabilization of Syria, probably more than anything that Obama did. Also, when we look at Iran funding people in the region, I don’t disagree with that as well. I think Iran is the number one instigator of bad-guy things right now in the Middle East. Iran, the IRGC I supported when Donald Trump killed Soleimani. I think that was a great thing. I think that Iran is a major problem.
That that probably contributed more to ISIS, to the growth of power in Iran, maybe even to the destabilization of Syria, probably more than anything that Obama did. Also, when we look at Iran funding people in the region, I don’t disagree with that as well. I think Iran is the number one instigator of bad-guy things right now in the Middle East. Iran, the IRGC I supported when Donald Trump killed Soleimani. I think that was a great thing. I think that Iran is a major problem.
However, I don’t know if the path forward is constantly being a belligerent to Iran or trying to figure out some road to normalcy. I don’t know if the collapse of Iran or the destruction of that country, considering how unpopular the Ayatollah even is there. The citizens of Iran, I don’t think, are big supporters of the government there. I feel like moving on a path where, let’s do our nuclear inspections. We had that Iranian nuclear deal that Trump pulled out of. Let’s do the nuclear inspections. Make sure you’re not on the way to nuclear weapons. Let’s unfree some funds. Let’s move in some direction where we get on a good term with you. I feel like that’s the most important thing that needs to happen in the Middle East. As much as people like to look at the Abraham Accords, who cares if… what was it? Bahrain, I think Oman. I think [inaudible 00:51:10].
Ben Shapiro
UAE, Morocco.
UAE, Morocco.
Destiny
The UAE and Morocco… like all of these people, even Saudi Arabia already have like de facto normalization with Israel anyway. They’re all trading [inaudible 00:51:18].
The UAE and Morocco… like all of these people, even Saudi Arabia already have like de facto normalization with Israel anyway. They’re all trading [inaudible 00:51:18].
Ben Shapiro
No, I mean, to pretend that anybody even 15 years ago would’ve been talking about normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is insane. I mean, that’s insane.
No, I mean, to pretend that anybody even 15 years ago would’ve been talking about normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is insane. I mean, that’s insane.
Destiny
They were already on that path. They were already de facto trading partners with each other. They had already been collaborating [inaudible 00:51:34].
They were already on that path. They were already de facto trading partners with each other. They had already been collaborating [inaudible 00:51:34].
Ben Shapiro
That’s a wild claim that Israel and Saudi Arabia were going to normalize 15 years ago?
That’s a wild claim that Israel and Saudi Arabia were going to normalize 15 years ago?
Destiny
15 years ago might’ve been a wild claim, but after Turkey, after Jordan, and then in the past 20 years of economic relations and ties with each other, all of the leadership in the Middle East and you’ll agree with this. Look at Israel. Then they go, okay, well, we’ve got Palestinians who God bless them, do nothing, and then you’ve got Israel, which is on a region with no natural resources to somehow become an economic giant. They’re good to trade with their population’s educated. They have military power. All of the leadership in these Middle Eastern countries are wanting to be friendly with Israel and are engaging in trade de facto with Israel and the idea that the UAE and Bahrain were brought in to say like, oh, well, now we’re going to officially say this.
15 years ago might’ve been a wild claim, but after Turkey, after Jordan, and then in the past 20 years of economic relations and ties with each other, all of the leadership in the Middle East and you’ll agree with this. Look at Israel. Then they go, okay, well, we’ve got Palestinians who God bless them, do nothing, and then you’ve got Israel, which is on a region with no natural resources to somehow become an economic giant. They’re good to trade with their population’s educated. They have military power. All of the leadership in these Middle Eastern countries are wanting to be friendly with Israel and are engaging in trade de facto with Israel and the idea that the UAE and Bahrain were brought in to say like, oh, well, now we’re going to officially say this.
Ben Shapiro
Those were the first steps toward obviously the formation of a new Middle East in which economics would predominate over sectarian conflict. The chief obstacle to that is Iran. I agree. The notion that negotiations with the Ayatollah, were going to be a solution to any of this is, but do we think Absolutely. The night,
Those were the first steps toward obviously the formation of a new Middle East in which economics would predominate over sectarian conflict. The chief obstacle to that is Iran. I agree. The notion that negotiations with the Ayatollah, were going to be a solution to any of this is, but do we think Absolutely. The night,
Destiny
Is it the Abraham Accords that’s convincing Saudi Arabia to take a stance against Iran?
Is it the Abraham Accords that’s convincing Saudi Arabia to take a stance against Iran?
Ben Shapiro
No. I mean, they’re
No. I mean, they’re
Destiny
Already fighting. They’re already fighting with each other. Right. I don’t think the Abraham Accords moved us any closer towards any type of real peace in the region. It has to happen is something has to happen with Iran. There has to be some diplomatic bilateral communication there.
Already fighting. They’re already fighting with each other. Right. I don’t think the Abraham Accords moved us any closer towards any type of real peace in the region. It has to happen is something has to happen with Iran. There has to be some diplomatic bilateral communication there.
Ben Shapiro
No. What has to happen is the containment of Iran, which was what was taking place with the increased normalization with the Sunni Arab world and Israel combined with significant economic sanctions. The notion that there’s this far-fetched notion in foreign policy circles that diplomacy can sort of be wish cast out of thin air. That if you sit around a table that you can always come to an agreement with somebody. The Ayatollahs do not have common interests with the United States. They do not, and this idea that they’re willing to take money in exchange, for example, some sort of peaceful acquiescence to Israel’s existence is obviously untrue, literally,
No. What has to happen is the containment of Iran, which was what was taking place with the increased normalization with the Sunni Arab world and Israel combined with significant economic sanctions. The notion that there’s this far-fetched notion in foreign policy circles that diplomacy can sort of be wish cast out of thin air. That if you sit around a table that you can always come to an agreement with somebody. The Ayatollahs do not have common interests with the United States. They do not, and this idea that they’re willing to take money in exchange, for example, some sort of peaceful acquiescence to Israel’s existence is obviously untrue, literally,
Destiny
Historically. Hasn’t that been the case though, that you’ve had a region with tons of sectarian violence for a long time, and then finally Turkey was like, you know what? This isn’t worth it. The United States paid them a lot of money. They had conversations with Israel, and you know what? The economy, the economic gains, same thing with Jordan. Same thing with
Historically. Hasn’t that been the case though, that you’ve had a region with tons of sectarian violence for a long time, and then finally Turkey was like, you know what? This isn’t worth it. The United States paid them a lot of money. They had conversations with Israel, and you know what? The economy, the economic gains, same thing with Jordan. Same thing with
Ben Shapiro
Turkish politics, but the situation with Turkey was actually quite warm between Israel and Turkey in the nineties when you had the sort of secular Muslim regime
Turkish politics, but the situation with Turkey was actually quite warm between Israel and Turkey in the nineties when you had the sort of secular Muslim regime
Destiny
In the nineties, but they signed
In the nineties, but they signed
Ben Shapiro
Out of Turk in place, and now Erdogan has joined in the fray. Erdogan is significantly more radical than
Out of Turk in place, and now Erdogan has joined in the fray. Erdogan is significantly more radical than
Destiny
What came before. Sure. I’m so sorry if I said Turga in Egypt, my
What came before. Sure. I’m so sorry if I said Turga in Egypt, my
Ben Shapiro
Bad. Egypt
Bad. Egypt
Destiny
In terms of Egypt and Jordan, right, we’re the first two you
In terms of Egypt and Jordan, right, we’re the first two you
Ben Shapiro
Need big, so here’s the thing. Is it possible that you could theoretically come to a deal with Iran only with a new leadership crew? Okay. This is true for every peace agreement in the region. You could not, Israel could not have made peace with. Well, they
Need big, so here’s the thing. Is it possible that you could theoretically come to a deal with Iran only with a new leadership crew? Okay. This is true for every peace agreement in the region. You could not, Israel could not have made peace with. Well, they
Destiny
Made peace with Egypt, and Sadat was the leader for Yom Kippur.
Made peace with Egypt, and Sadat was the leader for Yom Kippur.
Ben Shapiro
They did not make peace with Nasser. Right. The point is that this is a different regime. You need a different regime,
They did not make peace with Nasser. Right. The point is that this is a different regime. You need a different regime,
Destiny
But I’m saying the same regime that part of the Yom, Kippur war was the same regime that negotiated peace with Israel.
But I’m saying the same regime that part of the Yom, Kippur war was the same regime that negotiated peace with Israel.
Ben Shapiro
I mean, that’s true. It is also true that that is a relationship that could be cultivated specifically because it was Sadat who made clear he was going to come to the table. Have the Iranians ever made clear that they would come to the table over, for example, the existence of the state of Israel?
I mean, that’s true. It is also true that that is a relationship that could be cultivated specifically because it was Sadat who made clear he was going to come to the table. Have the Iranians ever made clear that they would come to the table over, for example, the existence of the state of Israel?
Destiny
No.
No.
Ben Shapiro
That is not a thing that’s going to happen, but
That is not a thing that’s going to happen, but
Destiny
I think people probably thought the same.
I think people probably thought the same.
Ben Shapiro
Every single one of their proxy rules, every one of them not only calls for the destruction of the state of Israel, they also call for the destruction of America. I mean, this is literally the Houthi slogan. They’re busy hitting ships, and their slogan is literally Ahu Akbar, death to America, death to the Jews, death to Israel. It doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker, but it’s not all like catchy, but that is in fact their slogan. The notion that the regime that propagates that is going to be approached with diplomacy is not only wrong, the problem is that it’s easy to say the stakes of diplomacy are okay, so we try to talk jaw-jaw is better than war-war. Sure. The only problem is that in the Middle East, weakness is taken as a sign that aggression might be an appropriate response. That is how things work in the Middle East, and the fact that Barack, that Joe Biden rather came into office with an orientation toward continuing the Obama policies in Iran has led to conflagrations these sort of brushfires breaking out everywhere that Iran has borders with either the West or Israel or both. Right. Any place that’s happening, it’s leading to Brushfires because again, the logic of violence in the Middle East is not quite the logic of violence in other places in the world. By the way, I think the logic of violence in the Middle East is actually closer to what most international politics looks like than we wish that it were. I mean, I think that’s part of what’s happening in Ukraine as well, which brings me, by the way, here’s my question about Ukraine. Well, just real quick-
Every single one of their proxy rules, every one of them not only calls for the destruction of the state of Israel, they also call for the destruction of America. I mean, this is literally the Houthi slogan. They’re busy hitting ships, and their slogan is literally Ahu Akbar, death to America, death to the Jews, death to Israel. It doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker, but it’s not all like catchy, but that is in fact their slogan. The notion that the regime that propagates that is going to be approached with diplomacy is not only wrong, the problem is that it’s easy to say the stakes of diplomacy are okay, so we try to talk jaw-jaw is better than war-war. Sure. The only problem is that in the Middle East, weakness is taken as a sign that aggression might be an appropriate response. That is how things work in the Middle East, and the fact that Barack, that Joe Biden rather came into office with an orientation toward continuing the Obama policies in Iran has led to conflagrations these sort of brushfires breaking out everywhere that Iran has borders with either the West or Israel or both. Right. Any place that’s happening, it’s leading to Brushfires because again, the logic of violence in the Middle East is not quite the logic of violence in other places in the world. By the way, I think the logic of violence in the Middle East is actually closer to what most international politics looks like than we wish that it were. I mean, I think that’s part of what’s happening in Ukraine as well, which brings me, by the way, here’s my question about Ukraine. Well, just real quick-
Destiny
So you think that for Iran, right, a country that has been sanctioned for God knows how many years now, you think that for Iran just continuing to sanction them and contain them is an effective way, is more effective than trying to engage them in bilateral or multilateral peace talks?
So you think that for Iran, right, a country that has been sanctioned for God knows how many years now, you think that for Iran just continuing to sanction them and contain them is an effective way, is more effective than trying to engage them in bilateral or multilateral peace talks?
Ben Shapiro
Yes, 100% and the proof is in the pudding.
Yes, 100% and the proof is in the pudding.
Israel-Palestine
Lex Fridman
Before we go to Ukraine, can I ask about Israel? So you’re both mostly in agreement, but what is Israel?
Before we go to Ukraine, can I ask about Israel? So you’re both mostly in agreement, but what is Israel?
Destiny
I don’t know if I’d say that.
I don’t know if I’d say that.
Lex Fridman
Okay, but as I’m learning what is Israel doing right? What is Israel doing wrong in this very specific current war in Gaza?
Okay, but as I’m learning what is Israel doing right? What is Israel doing wrong in this very specific current war in Gaza?
Ben Shapiro
I mean, frankly, I think that what Israel’s doing wrong is if I were Israel, again, America’s interests are not coincident with Israel’s interests. If I were an Israeli leader, I would’ve swiveled up and I would’ve knocked the bleep out of Hezbollah early. What does that mean mean? What does that mean? So I would have Yoav Galant, who is the defense minister of Israel, was encouraging Netanyahu, who’s the prime minister and the war cabinet, including Benny Gantz. People talk about the Netanyahu government. That’s not what’s in place right now. There’s a unity war government in place that includes the political opposition. The reason I point that out is because there are a lot of people politically who will suggest that the actions Israel is currently taking are somehow the manifestation of a right-wing government. Israel currently does not have a quote, right-wing government, they have unity government that includes the opposition.
I mean, frankly, I think that what Israel’s doing wrong is if I were Israel, again, America’s interests are not coincident with Israel’s interests. If I were an Israeli leader, I would’ve swiveled up and I would’ve knocked the bleep out of Hezbollah early. What does that mean mean? What does that mean? So I would have Yoav Galant, who is the defense minister of Israel, was encouraging Netanyahu, who’s the prime minister and the war cabinet, including Benny Gantz. People talk about the Netanyahu government. That’s not what’s in place right now. There’s a unity war government in place that includes the political opposition. The reason I point that out is because there are a lot of people politically who will suggest that the actions Israel is currently taking are somehow the manifestation of a right-wing government. Israel currently does not have a quote, right-wing government, they have unity government that includes the opposition.
In any case, Yoav Galant was urging in the very early days of the war that Israel should turn North and instead of hitting Hamas, they should actually take the opportunity to knock Hezbollah out because Hezbollah is significantly more dangerous to the existence of the state of Israel than Hamas. I actually agree with that. As far as what Israel has been doing wrong in the actual war, I mean, I think that, again, from an American perspective, I think that Israel is doing pretty well from an Israeli perspective via Israeli. I would actually want Israel to be less loose about sending its soldiers in on the ground level. So Israel’s attempting to minimize civilian casualties, and the cost of that has been the high.
Ben Shapiro
… on the ground level. So Israel’s attempting to minimize civilian casualties, and the cost of that has been the highest military death toll that Israel has had since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. I mean, I personally know, through one degree of separation, three separate people who have been killed in Gaza, and that’s because they’re going in door to door, it’s because they’re attempting to minimize civilian casualties and they’re losing a lot of guys in this particular war. The problem that Israel has had historically speaking is that Israel got very complacent about its own security situation. They believed the technology was going to somehow correct for the hatred on the other side of the wall. That, okay, so our people have to live underground for two weeks at a time while some rockets fall, but at least it’s not a war.
… on the ground level. So Israel’s attempting to minimize civilian casualties, and the cost of that has been the highest military death toll that Israel has had since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. I mean, I personally know, through one degree of separation, three separate people who have been killed in Gaza, and that’s because they’re going in door to door, it’s because they’re attempting to minimize civilian casualties and they’re losing a lot of guys in this particular war. The problem that Israel has had historically speaking is that Israel got very complacent about its own security situation. They believed the technology was going to somehow correct for the hatred on the other side of the wall. That, okay, so our people have to live underground for two weeks at a time while some rockets fall, but at least it’s not a war.
And that complacence bred what happened on October 7th. So to me, what Israel did wrong was years and years and years of complacence and belief in an Oslo System that is at root a failure because you cannot make a peace agreement with people who do not want to make peace with you. So that’s what I think Israel is doing wrong. I have a feeling that there’s going to be wide divergence on this point.
Destiny
Maybe. So in terms of broadly speaking, I generally oppose settlement expansion is a thing that Israel does incorrectly that I think is kind of provocative to at least all the Palestinians in the West Bank, and it probably energizes hatred in the Gaza Strip for them as well. In terms of conducting warfare, the one thing that I always say to everybody, especially Americans, is you can’t evaluate things from an American perspective. It’s very stupid. It happened a lot with Ukraine where people are like, “Oh, well, they work with the Nazis?” and “Weren’t the Soviets the good guys?” And it’s like, well, in other parts of the world, it’s not quite as simple. And I think the same is true for Israel-Palestine, that a lot of Americans will analyze the conflict as just being one between only Israel and Palestine, which it’s not, it’s a conflict between Israel and then Palestine, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran. Right now, it is.
Maybe. So in terms of broadly speaking, I generally oppose settlement expansion is a thing that Israel does incorrectly that I think is kind of provocative to at least all the Palestinians in the West Bank, and it probably energizes hatred in the Gaza Strip for them as well. In terms of conducting warfare, the one thing that I always say to everybody, especially Americans, is you can’t evaluate things from an American perspective. It’s very stupid. It happened a lot with Ukraine where people are like, “Oh, well, they work with the Nazis?” and “Weren’t the Soviets the good guys?” And it’s like, well, in other parts of the world, it’s not quite as simple. And I think the same is true for Israel-Palestine, that a lot of Americans will analyze the conflict as just being one between only Israel and Palestine, which it’s not, it’s a conflict between Israel and then Palestine, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran. Right now, it is.
However, one area where I’ll break with, Ben, is I think that minimizing civilian casualties and everything is very, very, very important I think on the Israeli side. I don’t think it’s important so that the US will stay with them because I think the US is probably going to stick with Israel as long as they’re not doing anything crazy, and I don’t even think it matters for the international community. It definitely doesn’t matter for the UN because Jesus Christ. However, I think it’s really, really, really important that… I think that in the Middle East, broadly speaking, I think that leadership, especially in the Gulf, has gotten over the Palestinian issue.
I think that leadership is kind of like they don’t care as much anymore, but the populations still care quite a bit. And I think that the main issue that Israel could run into is if the civilian death toll does climb too high, and if they start to hit this 40, 50, 60,000 number of civilian casualties, they run the risk of the civilian populations in the surrounding Middle Eastern states becoming so antagonistic towards Israel that they start to take steps back towards normalization in the region.
So for instance, I know that Bahrain, I think, already pulled out their ambassador to Israel. My guess is going to be it’s temporary. I know that on the public speaking side, you’ve got a lot of people condemning Israel for the attacks. And on the private side, you’ve got people telling Israel, “Please kill all of Hamas because this is untenable and nobody wants to work in this situation.” I don’t know if this ended up being true or not. I’m guessing it didn’t, but I saw on a couple of Twitter accounts, it was leaked that potentially, Saudi Arabia was considering installing a government in the West Bank that they would run.
Ben Shapiro
No, I mean, I think Israel would love nothing better than that, but that is [inaudible 01:01:21].
No, I mean, I think Israel would love nothing better than that, but that is [inaudible 01:01:21].
Destiny
For sure.
For sure.
Ben Shapiro
One of the big problems in the Middle East is literally no one wants to preside over the Palestinians. No one. In the Arab states, Israel, no one.
One of the big problems in the Middle East is literally no one wants to preside over the Palestinians. No one. In the Arab states, Israel, no one.
Destiny
So I think the issue, and I’m largely actually, I’m very sympathetic towards the Palestinians because I think that since ’48 and onwards, I think that all of the Arab states super gassed them up on that. They wanted the Palestinians to fight because they wanted to fight with Israel. However, as time has gone on and they’ve realized that it’s kind of a lost cause, states have started to drop out. So you’re getting these bilateral peace treaties with Egypt and with Jordan, you’re getting multilateral agreements like the Abraham Accords, and now, the Palestinians are looking around. I’m like, “Okay, well, you guys told us to fight all this time, and now, the only people that we have supporting us are Iranian proxies.” So the Palestinians are in a very weird spot where they’ve lost all their support.
So I think the issue, and I’m largely actually, I’m very sympathetic towards the Palestinians because I think that since ’48 and onwards, I think that all of the Arab states super gassed them up on that. They wanted the Palestinians to fight because they wanted to fight with Israel. However, as time has gone on and they’ve realized that it’s kind of a lost cause, states have started to drop out. So you’re getting these bilateral peace treaties with Egypt and with Jordan, you’re getting multilateral agreements like the Abraham Accords, and now, the Palestinians are looking around. I’m like, “Okay, well, you guys told us to fight all this time, and now, the only people that we have supporting us are Iranian proxies.” So the Palestinians are in a very weird spot where they’ve lost all their support.
Yeah, I think that Israel, what I would say to be, quote, unquote, “critical” of Israel is Israel needs to take strong steps towards peace that probably involves them enduring some undue hardship. So not the October 7th attacks, because Jesus, that’s way too much, but other types of attacks that they might have to deal with that might cause some civilians to die that they don’t come out over the top with and retaliate with if there’s ever going to be peace in that region. However, another thing that I’ve always said is a huge problem between Israel and Palestine is I think that both sides think that if they continue to fight, it will be good for them. But the problem is one side is delusional. I think Israel wants to continue to fight because they get justifications for the annexation of the Golan Heights. They get justifications for expansions, especially in the Area C that, I think, they’re probably going to try to annex soon. They get justifications for the increased military posturing towards the Gaza Strip and the embargoes.
And Israel is right that if the conflict continues, really, the situation only improves for Israel over time. But the Palestinians also all believe that if they keep fighting, they thought this since 2000 under Arafat, that if they just keep fighting, they’ll get better gains too. But that’s not the case.
Lex Fridman
Is there a difference between Palestinian citizens and the leadership when you say that?
Is there a difference between Palestinian citizens and the leadership when you say that?
Destiny
I love all people. I love all people around the world, and I think that when we analyze issues, I think that we have to be very honest with what the people on the ground think. And the idea that Hamas is just this one-off thing in the Gaza Strip is not only incorrect with the situation on the ground, it’s also incredibly ahistorical. And the idea that the Palestinians in the West Bank, of which I believe the most recent polling shows, I want to say 75 to 80% support the October 7th attacks. Palestinians, in general, want to fight in violent conflict with Israel. That’s not just the position of the government. That’s not just people. There’s a reason why Abbas doesn’t want to do elections in the West Bank, and it’s because the Palestinian people really do want to fight with Israel.
I love all people. I love all people around the world, and I think that when we analyze issues, I think that we have to be very honest with what the people on the ground think. And the idea that Hamas is just this one-off thing in the Gaza Strip is not only incorrect with the situation on the ground, it’s also incredibly ahistorical. And the idea that the Palestinians in the West Bank, of which I believe the most recent polling shows, I want to say 75 to 80% support the October 7th attacks. Palestinians, in general, want to fight in violent conflict with Israel. That’s not just the position of the government. That’s not just people. There’s a reason why Abbas doesn’t want to do elections in the West Bank, and it’s because the Palestinian people really do want to fight with Israel.
But to combat that problem is like you have to get the UN on board, we’ve got to do an actual addressing of the Palestinian refugee problem, which is handled like a joke right now. Iran has to be brought to the table in terms of negotiations. There has to be huge efforts made to economically revitalize these Palestinian areas. Even though they’re one of the highest recipients of aid in the world. You have to do something about the embargo and the blockade and the Gaza Strip, which isn’t just maintained by Israel, it’s also maintained by Egypt. You should ask why. Yeah, there’s a lot of things that have to happen to fix that problem. But the reality is I don’t think Israel really wants to because they get to continue their expansion into the West Bank, and I don’t think anybody around the world really cares that much because in a month, we won’t be talking [inaudible 01:04:36].
Ben Shapiro
I will argue with that. The idea that Israel does not want to end the conflict is belied by the history of what just happened with the Gaza Strip. So when we talk about settlements for example, Israel did have settlements inside the Gaza Strip. There were 8,000 Jews who were living inside the Gaza Strip in Gush Katif. Up until 2005, they withdrew all of those people, I mean, took them literally out of their homes, and the result was not the burgeoning of a better attitude toward the state of Israel with regard to, for example, the Palestinian population in Gaza. In fact, it was more radical in Gaza than it was in the West Bank. The result was obviously the election of Hamas, the October 7th attacks, in which unfortunately, many civilians took part in the October 7th attacks. There’s video of people rushing, who are civilians and dressed in civilian clothing, into Israeli villages.
I will argue with that. The idea that Israel does not want to end the conflict is belied by the history of what just happened with the Gaza Strip. So when we talk about settlements for example, Israel did have settlements inside the Gaza Strip. There were 8,000 Jews who were living inside the Gaza Strip in Gush Katif. Up until 2005, they withdrew all of those people, I mean, took them literally out of their homes, and the result was not the burgeoning of a better attitude toward the state of Israel with regard to, for example, the Palestinian population in Gaza. In fact, it was more radical in Gaza than it was in the West Bank. The result was obviously the election of Hamas, the October 7th attacks, in which unfortunately, many civilians took part in the October 7th attacks. There’s video of people rushing, who are civilians and dressed in civilian clothing, into Israeli villages.
Destiny
Oh, careful. Not always the same thing.
Oh, careful. Not always the same thing.
Ben Shapiro
Well, no, no. That is 100% true, obviously. And when it comes to Area C and Israel’s supposed deep and abiding desire for territorial expansion in Area C. Area C, so for those who are not familiar with the Oslo Accords, and again, this is getting very abstruse, but the Oslo Accords are broken down into three areas of the West Bank. Area A is under full Palestinian control. That’d be like Jenin and Nablus, the major cities, for example. There’s Area B, which is mixed Israeli-Palestinian control, where Israel provides some level of military security and control, and then there’s Area C. And Area C was like to be decided later. It was left up for possible concessions to the Palestinian authority if the Oslo accords have moved forward. Those are disputed territories. There is building taking place in Area C by both, actually no one talks about this, but by Palestinians as well as Israelis.
Well, no, no. That is 100% true, obviously. And when it comes to Area C and Israel’s supposed deep and abiding desire for territorial expansion in Area C. Area C, so for those who are not familiar with the Oslo Accords, and again, this is getting very abstruse, but the Oslo Accords are broken down into three areas of the West Bank. Area A is under full Palestinian control. That’d be like Jenin and Nablus, the major cities, for example. There’s Area B, which is mixed Israeli-Palestinian control, where Israel provides some level of military security and control, and then there’s Area C. And Area C was like to be decided later. It was left up for possible concessions to the Palestinian authority if the Oslo accords have moved forward. Those are disputed territories. There is building taking place in Area C by both, actually no one talks about this, but by Palestinians as well as Israelis.
And the question as to whether if Israel stopped building, there’ve been many settlement freeze in the past, including some undertaken by Netanyahu, and it actually has not done one iota of good in moving the ball forward in terms of actual negotiations. Again, the biggest problem is that the leadership for Palestinians has spent every day since, really, ’67. It’s not even ’48. Because between ’48 and ’67, Jordan was in charge of the West Bank and Egypt was in charge of the Gaza Strip. And at no point did either of those powers say, “Hey, maybe we ought to hand this over to an independent Palestinian state.” Which was originally the division that was promoted by the UN Partition Plan in ’47. Because of that, the leadership post ’67, and really, starting in ’64, the Palestine Liberation Organization was founded in ’64, and it called for the liberation of the land in ’64. They had the West Bank and they had the Gaza Strip. So they’re talking about Tel Aviv.
When it was founded in ’64, the basic idea, as kind of indicated by that, was Israel will not exist, and that was a promise that’s been made by pretty much every Palestinian leader in Arabic to the people that they are talking to. Yasser Arafat famously would do this sort of thing. He’d speak in English and talk about how he wanted a two-state solution, and then he’d go back to his own people and say, “This is a Trojan Horse and we’re going to…” If Israel could, if you think that Israeli parents want to send their kids at the age of 18 to go and monitor Jenin and Nablus and be in Khan Yunis, you’re out of your mind. You’re out of your mind. Israelis do not want that. In fact, Israelis didn’t want that so much that they allowed rockets to fall in their cities for full on 18 years in order to avoid sending soldiers en masse back into the Gaza Strip.
Destiny
True. But I think Israel does want to continue to expand settlements into the West Bank, right? They want to continue to build, they want to have all of Jerusalem, East Jerusalem as well.
True. But I think Israel does want to continue to expand settlements into the West Bank, right? They want to continue to build, they want to have all of Jerusalem, East Jerusalem as well.
Ben Shapiro
Well, I mean, East Jerusalem has already been annexed. So East Jerusalem is, according to Israel, a part of Israel. That’s not a settlement.
Well, I mean, East Jerusalem has already been annexed. So East Jerusalem is, according to Israel, a part of Israel. That’s not a settlement.
Destiny
Sure.
Sure.
Ben Shapiro
Okay. So there’s that. With regard to does Israel have an interest in expanding settlements in the West Bank? Why would they not until there’s a peace partner?
Okay. So there’s that. With regard to does Israel have an interest in expanding settlements in the West Bank? Why would they not until there’s a peace partner?
Destiny
Sure.
Sure.
Ben Shapiro
[inaudible 01:08:05].
[inaudible 01:08:05].
Destiny
That’s what I mean. But I’m saying as long as the conflict continues, because even when you talk about-
That’s what I mean. But I’m saying as long as the conflict continues, because even when you talk about-
Ben Shapiro
But no, your suggestion is that they’re incentivizing the conflict to continue so they can grab more land.
But no, your suggestion is that they’re incentivizing the conflict to continue so they can grab more land.
Destiny
Well, no, let me be very clear. I don’t think there’s a… So some people say, for instance, they’ll take that one quote from Netanyahu and they’ll try to say that he was funding the people on the Gaza Strip by allowing Qatari money to come in, even though he was actually speaking in opposition to Abbas, allowing the Gaza Strip to fall for Netanyahu to clear it out for him and they give it back, et cetera, et cetera. I’m not claiming those theories. I’m just saying that I think that Israel will take a relatively neutral stance towards conflict and enduring, because as long as the conflict endures, and as long as the settlements can expand, I think that ultimately benefits Israel.
Well, no, let me be very clear. I don’t think there’s a… So some people say, for instance, they’ll take that one quote from Netanyahu and they’ll try to say that he was funding the people on the Gaza Strip by allowing Qatari money to come in, even though he was actually speaking in opposition to Abbas, allowing the Gaza Strip to fall for Netanyahu to clear it out for him and they give it back, et cetera, et cetera. I’m not claiming those theories. I’m just saying that I think that Israel will take a relatively neutral stance towards conflict and enduring, because as long as the conflict endures, and as long as the settlements can expand, I think that ultimately benefits Israel.
Ben Shapiro
I think there would be… Let’s put it this way, if suddenly there are arose among the Palestinians, a deep and abiding desire for peace approved by a vast majority of the population with serious security guarantees, I think you’d be very hard-pressed to find Israelis who would not be willing to at least consider that. [inaudible 01:08:57] not expanding bathrooms [inaudible 01:08:59].
I think there would be… Let’s put it this way, if suddenly there are arose among the Palestinians, a deep and abiding desire for peace approved by a vast majority of the population with serious security guarantees, I think you’d be very hard-pressed to find Israelis who would not be willing to at least consider that. [inaudible 01:08:57] not expanding bathrooms [inaudible 01:08:59].
Destiny
I would’ve agreed with you on October 6th. I think we’re probably a year or two away from that right now.
I would’ve agreed with you on October 6th. I think we’re probably a year or two away from that right now.
Ben Shapiro
No, no. But no, the point I’m making is that Israelis now realize that the entire peace process was a sham, meaning the people who were on the other side of the table were using it as a Trojan Horse in the first place. The death of Oslo is not the death of Israeli hopefulness. It’s the death of the illusion that on the other side of the table was anyone worth bargaining with. That’s what’s happening, and that’s why you have this sort of insane disconnect right now between the United States and the Israeli government. Again, it’s a unity government. No one in Israel is talking about making concessions to the Palestinian authority for a wide variety of reasons, including the fact that Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah continues to pay actual families of terrorists who killed Jews.
No, no. But no, the point I’m making is that Israelis now realize that the entire peace process was a sham, meaning the people who were on the other side of the table were using it as a Trojan Horse in the first place. The death of Oslo is not the death of Israeli hopefulness. It’s the death of the illusion that on the other side of the table was anyone worth bargaining with. That’s what’s happening, and that’s why you have this sort of insane disconnect right now between the United States and the Israeli government. Again, it’s a unity government. No one in Israel is talking about making concessions to the Palestinian authority for a wide variety of reasons, including the fact that Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah continues to pay actual families of terrorists who killed Jews.
Destiny
Sure, the Martyr fund. Yeah.
Sure, the Martyr fund. Yeah.
Ben Shapiro
Right. And the fact-
Right. And the fact-
Destiny
Which is from the moderate West Bank.
Which is from the moderate West Bank.
Ben Shapiro
Right, exactly. So again, the taste in Israel for this is even the people who are the Hilonim, those are the most secular people in Israel, which was, by the way, the place that was attacked on October 7th. I mean, what people should understand is that October 7th was not an attack against settlements in the West Bank. It was an attack on peace villages that were essentially disarmed, and many of these people who were killed were peace activists who were literally trying to work with people in Gaza to get them… I mean, it’s mind-boggling. That’s why you’ve had this ground shift in Israel. The next 20 years in Israel is going to be about security and economic development. Period, end of story. Everything else goes second, third place.
Right, exactly. So again, the taste in Israel for this is even the people who are the Hilonim, those are the most secular people in Israel, which was, by the way, the place that was attacked on October 7th. I mean, what people should understand is that October 7th was not an attack against settlements in the West Bank. It was an attack on peace villages that were essentially disarmed, and many of these people who were killed were peace activists who were literally trying to work with people in Gaza to get them… I mean, it’s mind-boggling. That’s why you’ve had this ground shift in Israel. The next 20 years in Israel is going to be about security and economic development. Period, end of story. Everything else goes second, third place.
Destiny
And I will say, I agree essentially with everything you’re saying. Not to loop back on another topic, but this is one of the reasons then why I was so critical. I don’t want to say critical, but kind of nonchalant about the Abraham Accord because they didn’t address anything with the Palestinians whatsoever. They brought countries that weren’t super relevant to the conflict. They didn’t bring in Qatar, which is where a lot of the money and support for the Gaza Strip comes from. It didn’t involve Iran at all. They involved bilateral [inaudible 01:10:33].
And I will say, I agree essentially with everything you’re saying. Not to loop back on another topic, but this is one of the reasons then why I was so critical. I don’t want to say critical, but kind of nonchalant about the Abraham Accord because they didn’t address anything with the Palestinians whatsoever. They brought countries that weren’t super relevant to the conflict. They didn’t bring in Qatar, which is where a lot of the money and support for the Gaza Strip comes from. It didn’t involve Iran at all. They involved bilateral [inaudible 01:10:33].
Ben Shapiro
No, but it’s totally changed the mentality, and this is why what I’m seeing right now, this is why… Listen, I think that Biden has done better than I certainly expected him to do in terms of support for Israel. Obama was way less supportive of Israel than Biden by every metric. With that said, the rhetoric that he’s been using recently and the blanket have been using recently about Israel needs to make painful concessions for peace, Israel… Re-centering, this issue at the center of relations in the Middle East is doomed to failure.
No, but it’s totally changed the mentality, and this is why what I’m seeing right now, this is why… Listen, I think that Biden has done better than I certainly expected him to do in terms of support for Israel. Obama was way less supportive of Israel than Biden by every metric. With that said, the rhetoric that he’s been using recently and the blanket have been using recently about Israel needs to make painful concessions for peace, Israel… Re-centering, this issue at the center of relations in the Middle East is doomed to failure.
The magic, magic is a strong word… The benefit of the Abraham Accords was proof of what you’re saying, which is true, which is that all of these surrounding countries, in reality, have abandoned the idea that there’s a centrality to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. That is not the central conflict in the Middle East. And by the way, one of the reasons it’s not the central conflict in the Middle East is because actually, ironically, because of the rise of Iran. It’s SUNY states that are largely signing up with Israel because they’re realizing they need some sort of counterweight to a burgeoning nuclear power in Iran.
Russia-Ukraine
Lex Fridman
Can we talk about Ukraine?
Can we talk about Ukraine?
Destiny
Sure.
Sure.
Lex Fridman
Do you have a disagreement with what Destiny said?
Do you have a disagreement with what Destiny said?
Ben Shapiro
My main problem with Biden’s policy with regard to Ukraine is that he outsourced the end goal of the war to Zelenskyy early on. Now, that might make sense if that goal were something that he was willing to fund to the point of achievement or if Zelenskyy could have achieved it on his own. But right now, and this has been true since pretty early on in the war, it’s a point Henry Kissinger made, that pretty early on in the war, it was very clear that for example, Crimea was going nowhere. The Russians had control of Crimea, barring the United States giving permission to fly F-16s over Crimea, nothing was going to change over there. The same thing was true in most of the Donbas, in Luhansk and Donetsk. That was not going to change. Zelenskyy’s stated goal, and you understand it, he’s the leader of Ukraine, is that there was a predation on his territory in 2014 and that the Russian sent their little green men across the border, and then they took all of these areas. And so he, as the leader of Ukraine, is saying, “Okay, I want all of that back.”
My main problem with Biden’s policy with regard to Ukraine is that he outsourced the end goal of the war to Zelenskyy early on. Now, that might make sense if that goal were something that he was willing to fund to the point of achievement or if Zelenskyy could have achieved it on his own. But right now, and this has been true since pretty early on in the war, it’s a point Henry Kissinger made, that pretty early on in the war, it was very clear that for example, Crimea was going nowhere. The Russians had control of Crimea, barring the United States giving permission to fly F-16s over Crimea, nothing was going to change over there. The same thing was true in most of the Donbas, in Luhansk and Donetsk. That was not going to change. Zelenskyy’s stated goal, and you understand it, he’s the leader of Ukraine, is that there was a predation on his territory in 2014 and that the Russian sent their little green men across the border, and then they took all of these areas. And so he, as the leader of Ukraine, is saying, “Okay, I want all of that back.”
Now, the reality is that the US’ interests had largely been achieved in the first few months of the war, meaning the revocation of the ability of Russia to take Ukraine and just ingest it. And two, the devastation of Russia’s military capability. I mean, Russia has just been wrecked. I mean, the military is in serious straits because of the war in Ukraine. From an American perspective, I’m very much pro all of that. I think that we have an interest in Ukraine maintaining a buffer status against a territorially aggressive Russia. I think that the United States does have an interest in degrading the Russian military to the extent that it can’t threaten the Baltic states or threaten Kazakhstan or other countries in the region. The problem I have with Biden’s strategy is as always, I think that it’s a muddle, and I think muddles tend to end with misperceptions.
War tends to break out and maintain because of misperception, misperception of the other side’s strength, the other side’s intentions, and all of the rest. People misperceive what’s going to happen. They say, “I’ll cross that line and nothing will happen.” This is what Putin thought. He thought, “I’ll cross that line. They’ll greet me as a liberator. And because the United States just surrendered in Afghanistan, essentially, they won’t do anything, and the West is fragmenting because NATO’s fragmenting and all the rest of this.” And obviously, he was wrong on all of those scores.
The problem for Biden is that as with virtually every war, no end line was set. And so it became out recently that it was widely reported that actually there was a peace deal that was on the table in the first few months that Putin was on board with that basically would’ve seeded Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea to Russia in return for solidification of those lines. American and Western security guarantees to Ukraine, right? Ukraine wouldn’t formally join NATO, but there would be security guarantees to Ukraine. We’re ending up there anyway. It’s just taking a lot more money and a lot more time to get there.
Lex Fridman
And do you think Trump would’ve helped push that peace?
And do you think Trump would’ve helped push that peace?
Ben Shapiro
Yes, and I think that Biden actually did Zelenskyy a bit of a disservice because Zelenskyy knows where this war is going to end, and it’s not going to end with Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea in Ukrainian hands. It’s just not going to, and he knows that. What actually, in my opinion, Zelenskyy needed was for Joe Biden to be the person who foisted that deal upon him so that he could then go back to his own people and say, “Listen, guys. I wanted all those things, but the Americans weren’t willing to allow me to have all those things.” And so we did an amazing job, we did a heroic job in defending our own land. We devastated the Russian military even though no one expected us to, but we can’t get back those things because it’s unrealistic to get back to those things because America basically, they’re a big funder and they’re the ones who want the deal.
Yes, and I think that Biden actually did Zelenskyy a bit of a disservice because Zelenskyy knows where this war is going to end, and it’s not going to end with Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea in Ukrainian hands. It’s just not going to, and he knows that. What actually, in my opinion, Zelenskyy needed was for Joe Biden to be the person who foisted that deal upon him so that he could then go back to his own people and say, “Listen, guys. I wanted all those things, but the Americans weren’t willing to allow me to have all those things.” And so we did an amazing job, we did a heroic job in defending our own land. We devastated the Russian military even though no one expected us to, but we can’t get back those things because it’s unrealistic to get back to those things because America basically, they’re a big funder and they’re the ones who want the deal.
Instead, what Biden said, and this was reported in the Washington Post last year, the Biden administration said, “We’re going to fight for as long as it takes with as much as it takes.” And when they were asked until when, they said, “Whatever Zelenskyy says.” And that’s not a policy, that’s just a recipe for a frozen conflict with endless funding. Now, it may be that Putin has walked away from the table and that deal is no longer available. If that deal is available right now, I certainly hope that’s being pursued behind closed doors. My main critique again of Biden is that when you outsource the end goal to another country without stating what America’s interest is, that’s a problem. I also think that Biden did really quite a poor job of sort of explaining what America’s realistic interests are. I don’t like it when American leaders… It’s weird for me to say this, but I’m not a huge fan of the we’re in it to protect democracy kind of rhetoric because frankly, we are allied with many, many countries that are not democracies, and that’s not actually how foreign policy works.
We should, as an overall 30,000-foot goal, advance democracy and rights where we can, but the reason that we were fighting in favor of Ukraine, and when I say fighting, I mean giving them money and giving them weaponry, the reason that we were doing that in favor of Ukraine is not because of Ukraine’s long history of clean voting and non-corruption. The reason that we were doing that is to counter Russian interest in the region. I mean, it was a pure, real politic play, and that real politic play is hard to deny no matter what side of the aisle you’re on. I think that what many Americans are going to, are reverting to is we have no interest there. Why are we spending the money there and not spending the money here? And that kind of stuff. And that argument can always be applied unless you actually articulate the reason why it is good for Americans beyond simply the ideological for the United States to be involved in a thing.
So for example, I think right now, when Biden is taught, I think that what Biden just did, the United States as we speak, is striking the Houthis. I think that that’s a really, really good thing. I think that’s a necessary thing, and I think American people should understand why that is happening. It’s not because of, quote, unquote, “ideology”. It is, I mean, on a very root level, but really, it’s because you’re screwing up the straits. I mean, you can’t do that. You can’t screw up free trade, and Americans have an interest in not seeing all of our prices at the grocery store double and triple because a bunch of ragtag pirates akin to the Barbary pirates from 1800 are bothering everyone. Right?
Lex Fridman
So Ben said a lot there. Do you disagree with any aspect on the Ukraine side [inaudible 01:17:04]?
So Ben said a lot there. Do you disagree with any aspect on the Ukraine side [inaudible 01:17:04]?
Destiny
A little bit, yeah. I think on the macro, I agree. Maybe we get into weasel a little bit on some things. On the final thing that he said, though, I wish that Americans could have honest conversations about foreign policy. I think that it would just be better for everybody. I don’t know if it’s Red Scare after the Cold War where it was literally the behemoths, we’re fighting against communism and we felt like after ’91, every single foreign policy decision needs to be able to be explained in seven words, like he’s the bad guy, and that’s it. I wish we had more honest conversations about what our foreign policy interest is in a particular region, because I don’t think most Americans honestly could even articulate why Israel would be an important ally or why it’s important to defend Ukraine against Russia or why should we care about Taiwan at all. I don’t know if most Americans could articulate anything there, even though they might have very strong opinions about why we ought to be involved in certain conflicts. So I do agree with that. I wish we had more honest conversations about foreign policy. In terms of how Biden has handled Ukraine. The things that I liked the most were one, that he was very clear in the beginning about what we wouldn’t do. So Biden saying that, “We’re not going to do not a red line, no-fly zones over Ukraine. We’re not going to be deploying troops on the ground in Ukraine. We’re not going to be doing anything that would have US soldiers and Russian soldiers crossing swords with each other. That’s not going to happen.” I liked that he made that very clear at the beginning, and I liked that he coalition-built between NATO and the EU to get people to send funds, training, soldiers, airplanes and everything to Ukraine. I thought those two things were really good. In terms of basically writing Zelenskyy a blank check, I would like to hope that Biden and the entire United States learned a lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan, that open-ended missions with unlimited budgets and no clear goal are like the worst foreign policy decisions you can ever do. They’ve defined US foreign policy for the past two or three decades, which is unfortunate, but seems to be the case.
A little bit, yeah. I think on the macro, I agree. Maybe we get into weasel a little bit on some things. On the final thing that he said, though, I wish that Americans could have honest conversations about foreign policy. I think that it would just be better for everybody. I don’t know if it’s Red Scare after the Cold War where it was literally the behemoths, we’re fighting against communism and we felt like after ’91, every single foreign policy decision needs to be able to be explained in seven words, like he’s the bad guy, and that’s it. I wish we had more honest conversations about what our foreign policy interest is in a particular region, because I don’t think most Americans honestly could even articulate why Israel would be an important ally or why it’s important to defend Ukraine against Russia or why should we care about Taiwan at all. I don’t know if most Americans could articulate anything there, even though they might have very strong opinions about why we ought to be involved in certain conflicts. So I do agree with that. I wish we had more honest conversations about foreign policy. In terms of how Biden has handled Ukraine. The things that I liked the most were one, that he was very clear in the beginning about what we wouldn’t do. So Biden saying that, “We’re not going to do not a red line, no-fly zones over Ukraine. We’re not going to be deploying troops on the ground in Ukraine. We’re not going to be doing anything that would have US soldiers and Russian soldiers crossing swords with each other. That’s not going to happen.” I liked that he made that very clear at the beginning, and I liked that he coalition-built between NATO and the EU to get people to send funds, training, soldiers, airplanes and everything to Ukraine. I thought those two things were really good. In terms of basically writing Zelenskyy a blank check, I would like to hope that Biden and the entire United States learned a lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan, that open-ended missions with unlimited budgets and no clear goal are like the worst foreign policy decisions you can ever do. They’ve defined US foreign policy for the past two or three decades, which is unfortunate, but seems to be the case.
My feeling would be, and this is just a feeling, I don’t know if internal cables have leaked that say otherwise, is the Biden administration has probably always had a quiet position of at some point, there’s going to be an off-ramp here, and I think even a month or two ago, I think those talks were being leaked, that discussion had begun with Zelenskyy looking for an off-ramp. But publicly, of course, the United States is never going to come out and say, “We are going to support you guys to fight as much as you want for three months. And then after that, it’s no more.” Obviously, that can’t be the statement. It’s always going to be that, “We’re going to support you in your fight against Russia [inaudible 01:19:28].”
Ben Shapiro
Yeah, we tried that under Obama with Afghanistan. It was terrible.
Yeah, we tried that under Obama with Afghanistan. It was terrible.
Destiny
Sure. You can’t-
Sure. You can’t-
Ben Shapiro
We’ll escalate the troops levels to X, but only for six months and then we’ll [inaudible 01:19:34].
We’ll escalate the troops levels to X, but only for six months and then we’ll [inaudible 01:19:34].
Destiny
You just can’t do that. It’s always going to come off as, “We’re going to support you forever and as long as it takes and as long as you need, whatever we have to do to defend freedom and democracy in your country.” And any other statement would be absurd. So I can understand why it feels like on a public level, a blank check and an indefinite time period was granted to Zelenskyy, but I don’t think that’s going to be the case. I think, again, I hope we’ve learned our lessons in the Middle East about the forever wars, that this isn’t going to be a forever funding to Ukraine to fight for as long as they want. I do disagree. I feel like we’re playing a little bit retrospectively, saying that, “Well, it’s obvious that they’re not going to capture the Donbas. It’s obvious that they’re not going to capture Crimea.” I agree, for Crimea, that was incredibly obvious, but it was also really obvious that in two weeks, Russia would own Kyiv and Ukraine was going to be Belarus 2.0.
You just can’t do that. It’s always going to come off as, “We’re going to support you forever and as long as it takes and as long as you need, whatever we have to do to defend freedom and democracy in your country.” And any other statement would be absurd. So I can understand why it feels like on a public level, a blank check and an indefinite time period was granted to Zelenskyy, but I don’t think that’s going to be the case. I think, again, I hope we’ve learned our lessons in the Middle East about the forever wars, that this isn’t going to be a forever funding to Ukraine to fight for as long as they want. I do disagree. I feel like we’re playing a little bit retrospectively, saying that, “Well, it’s obvious that they’re not going to capture the Donbas. It’s obvious that they’re not going to capture Crimea.” I agree, for Crimea, that was incredibly obvious, but it was also really obvious that in two weeks, Russia would own Kyiv and Ukraine was going to be Belarus 2.0.
I think that even for a lot of military people and analysts around the world, that that was an expectation or at least a significant probability. Nobody knew, the phrase that’s thrown right now is paper tiger, that Russia’s military was as ill-equipped as they were. So I can understand why, especially if you’re Ukraine and if you’ve repelled an invasion from one of the world’s largest armies, why you might feel like, “Well, fuck it, let’s fight for a few months. Let’s fight for a year. Let’s see what happens.” And I can understand the United States supporting them, but I agree that there has to be some reasonable off-ramp, but we’re not going to fight forever. I think the US State Department has already begun those conversations with Zelenskyy to look at what that off-ramp looks like. But yeah, I’m not too sure other than explicitly stating publicly you can only fight until this date. I don’t really know what else I would… I don’t think the Biden administration should have done that. I don’t know what else-
Ben Shapiro
Do you think Biden should cut this deal on the funding? Meaning there’s this $105 billion deal that’s been held up by debate between Republicans and Democrats over border. So basically, it contains $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel, another several billion dollars for Taiwanese defense against China, and then includes some border funding and some border provisions. Republicans want the border funding and the border provisions because we can get into the illegal immigration issue, but that’s a pretty serious issue, and Biden Democrats have been unwilling to hold that up, and that seems to me like just from, put aside Republicans, Democrats, it seems like political malpractice, meaning there’s a widespread perception in the United States that the border’s a disaster area. Joe Biden wants these things. Many republicans don’t want these things. If he caves on the border stuff, he gets all the things that he wants, and he’s going to be able to go back to the moderates in the country and say, “I did something about the border.” It seems like such an obvious win.
Do you think Biden should cut this deal on the funding? Meaning there’s this $105 billion deal that’s been held up by debate between Republicans and Democrats over border. So basically, it contains $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel, another several billion dollars for Taiwanese defense against China, and then includes some border funding and some border provisions. Republicans want the border funding and the border provisions because we can get into the illegal immigration issue, but that’s a pretty serious issue, and Biden Democrats have been unwilling to hold that up, and that seems to me like just from, put aside Republicans, Democrats, it seems like political malpractice, meaning there’s a widespread perception in the United States that the border’s a disaster area. Joe Biden wants these things. Many republicans don’t want these things. If he caves on the border stuff, he gets all the things that he wants, and he’s going to be able to go back to the moderates in the country and say, “I did something about the border.” It seems like such an obvious win.
Destiny
If he caves on the border stuff, you mean on the Ukraine stuff?
If he caves on the border stuff, you mean on the Ukraine stuff?
Ben Shapiro
Yes, because then he gets the whole package, meaning he can go back to his own base and he can say, “Listen, guys, I want it to be easy on the border. The Republicans forced me to it, but we needed the Ukraine aid. We needed the Taiwan [inaudible 01:21:59].”
Yes, because then he gets the whole package, meaning he can go back to his own base and he can say, “Listen, guys, I want it to be easy on the border. The Republicans forced me to it, but we needed the Ukraine aid. We needed the Taiwan [inaudible 01:21:59].”
Destiny
Honestly, you’re going to be more educated than me on this. I don’t like, or maybe I just don’t know enough. I don’t like the principle that when we negotiate things in the United States, there’s like 50 million hostages at all points in time for every single thing. Like, “Oh, boy, here comes the debt ceiling. What do the Republicans want? What do the Democrats want? Oh, boy, we can’t fund our government.” But I mean, obviously, the argument is going to be that if the Ukraine funding doesn’t come in this bill, and if Biden and his administration feel like it’s really important that not unilaterally, but as a single issue, it’s not going to pass. So I would say that at this point, and I don’t know what the conversations look like between the Biden administration and Zelenskyy, I would say at this point, that it’s probably fair to start making contingencies on the money that we give to Ukraine that, “Listen, this conflict has waged on now. Now, we need to start looking for potential peace. We can’t just write you an unlimited check.” So I mean, if those strings are attached, I’d be okay with it. But the broader question of is it okay to make this particular piece of legislation with all this funding contingent on the Ukrainian funding? I mean, that just seems to be the way the government works now, unfortunately.
Honestly, you’re going to be more educated than me on this. I don’t like, or maybe I just don’t know enough. I don’t like the principle that when we negotiate things in the United States, there’s like 50 million hostages at all points in time for every single thing. Like, “Oh, boy, here comes the debt ceiling. What do the Republicans want? What do the Democrats want? Oh, boy, we can’t fund our government.” But I mean, obviously, the argument is going to be that if the Ukraine funding doesn’t come in this bill, and if Biden and his administration feel like it’s really important that not unilaterally, but as a single issue, it’s not going to pass. So I would say that at this point, and I don’t know what the conversations look like between the Biden administration and Zelenskyy, I would say at this point, that it’s probably fair to start making contingencies on the money that we give to Ukraine that, “Listen, this conflict has waged on now. Now, we need to start looking for potential peace. We can’t just write you an unlimited check.” So I mean, if those strings are attached, I’d be okay with it. But the broader question of is it okay to make this particular piece of legislation with all this funding contingent on the Ukrainian funding? I mean, that just seems to be the way the government works now, unfortunately.
January 6
Lex Fridman
Quick pause, bathroom break. One of the big issues in this presidential election is going to be January 6th. It’s in the news now, and I think it’s going to become bigger and bigger and bigger. So question for Destiny first. The Donald Trump incite and insurrection on January 6th, 2021.
Quick pause, bathroom break. One of the big issues in this presidential election is going to be January 6th. It’s in the news now, and I think it’s going to become bigger and bigger and bigger. So question for Destiny first. The Donald Trump incite and insurrection on January 6th, 2021.
Destiny
Absolutely. This is probably ignoring every other issue we’ve talked about, of which I think there are plenty that I would say disqualified Trump from holding office. I think that the conduct and the behavior leading up to and including January 6th, I think is wildly indefensible. I am excited to see Ben try to… Yeah, the three to four stages are the taking what I think any reasonable [inaudible 01:23:48] knowingly false information about elections being rigged or ballot box is being stuffed, or Ruby Freeman running the ballots three times in Georgia. Taking that knowingly false information and trying to call state secretaries and stuff to have them flip their electoral vote, that was horrible. The plot that Eastman hatched in order to have these false slates of electors where all seven states had citizens go in and falsely say that they were the duly elected electors that could submit votes to Congress, that was insane. That happened. Asking or begging Pence to accept these false states of electors initially, and then just say you should just throw it out completely and throw it to the house delegation, which was majority Republican, that was absolutely unbelievable.
Absolutely. This is probably ignoring every other issue we’ve talked about, of which I think there are plenty that I would say disqualified Trump from holding office. I think that the conduct and the behavior leading up to and including January 6th, I think is wildly indefensible. I am excited to see Ben try to… Yeah, the three to four stages are the taking what I think any reasonable [inaudible 01:23:48] knowingly false information about elections being rigged or ballot box is being stuffed, or Ruby Freeman running the ballots three times in Georgia. Taking that knowingly false information and trying to call state secretaries and stuff to have them flip their electoral vote, that was horrible. The plot that Eastman hatched in order to have these false slates of electors where all seven states had citizens go in and falsely say that they were the duly elected electors that could submit votes to Congress, that was insane. That happened. Asking or begging Pence to accept these false states of electors initially, and then just say you should just throw it out completely and throw it to the house delegation, which was majority Republican, that was absolutely unbelievable.
And then on the day of January 6th, trying to capitalize on the violence by him, Giuliani, and Eastman making phone calls to senators and congressmen saying, “Well, don’t you think maybe you guys should delay the vote a little bit? Don’t you think they’re just really mad about the election?” I think he said to McCarthy, “They’re more upset than you.” And his utter dereliction of duty and not doing anything to stop the rioting that happened on January 6th because he was too busy taking advantage of it, I think all of these things are horrible. I look forward to seeing the Jack Smith indictments play out in court, maybe even the Georgia RICO case. But yeah, I think all of these things are unfathomable, and I think when you look at the plot from start to finish, clearly, the goal the entire time was to circumvent the peaceful transfer of power. That was the goal from start to finish, whether it was through false claims, whether it was through illegal schemes, or whether it was through violence at the Capitol to delay the certification of the vote.
Lex Fridman
Ben.
Ben.
Ben Shapiro
So I’m glad you’re excited. It’s always fun. So there are two elements to incitement of insurrection. One is incitement, the other is insurrection. So incitement has a legal standard, so does insurrection. Neither of those standards are met. So if you’re asking me, morally speaking, did Donald Trump do the right thing between November 4th and January 6th? I said, I will continue to say no, he did not. I think he was saying things that are false with just factually false about his theories with regard to the election, about the election being stolen, about fraud. This is all adjudicated in court. He did not even bring many of the claims that he has brought publicly and all the rest of that. If we’re talking about incitement of insurrection as a legal standard, he doesn’t meet any of those standards.
So I’m glad you’re excited. It’s always fun. So there are two elements to incitement of insurrection. One is incitement, the other is insurrection. So incitement has a legal standard, so does insurrection. Neither of those standards are met. So if you’re asking me, morally speaking, did Donald Trump do the right thing between November 4th and January 6th? I said, I will continue to say no, he did not. I think he was saying things that are false with just factually false about his theories with regard to the election, about the election being stolen, about fraud. This is all adjudicated in court. He did not even bring many of the claims that he has brought publicly and all the rest of that. If we’re talking about incitement of insurrection as a legal standard, he doesn’t meet any of those standards.
When it comes to incitement, it has to be incitement to immediate lawless action. That’s the standard for incitement. And I’m very meticulous in how I use this because I happen to speak publicly a lot, and that means there are lots of people who listen to me, which means some of those people are probably crazy and some of them may go and do a crazy thing. Did I incite them? The media tends to use the word incitement very loosely with regard to this sort of stuff, in the same way that Bernie Sanders, quote, unquote, “incited” the congressional baseball shooting. He did not. Bernie Sanders has a lot of things I disagree with. I think Bernie’s a schmuck, doesn’t matter. He did not incite that.
So saying bad things is not the same thing as inciting violence. Inciting violence, the legal standard in the United States is, I want you to go punch that guy in the face. That’s inciting. With regard to insurrection, typically, in insurrection, and there are some descriptions in case law, though none in statutory law as far as [inaudible 01:26:50]. The typical description in case law is the replacement of one legitimate government of the United States with another by violent means. The notion that Donald Trump coordinated any such insurrection is belied by the FBI itself. The FBI put out a report in, I believe it was…
Ben Shapiro
… is belied by the FBI itself. The FBI put out a report in, I believe it was August of 2021, suggesting that there was no well-coordinated insurrectionist attempt coordinated by the White House. In fact, what you had was Donald Trump thrashing around like that weird alien in the movie, Life. I don’t if you ever saw it with Jake Gyllenhaal, where he’s like kind of thrashing up against this glass box, just an alien just thrashing up against the glass box. That I think is more what you were seeing from November 4th to January 6th.
… is belied by the FBI itself. The FBI put out a report in, I believe it was August of 2021, suggesting that there was no well-coordinated insurrectionist attempt coordinated by the White House. In fact, what you had was Donald Trump thrashing around like that weird alien in the movie, Life. I don’t if you ever saw it with Jake Gyllenhaal, where he’s like kind of thrashing up against this glass box, just an alien just thrashing up against the glass box. That I think is more what you were seeing from November 4th to January 6th.
And then again, the claim that January 6th itself was an insurrection… I’m not aware that anyone was charged with actual insurrection. There were some people who were charged with seditious conspiracy. There are insurrection statutes that do exist. No one was charged under those particular statutes. There were some people who you could say informally had insurrectionist ideas. Those would be the people who wanted to hang Nancy Pelosi or kill Mike Pence, and those people are in jail right now. And the election went forward. The election was certified. Mike Pence presided over the certification. Mitch McConnell presided over the certification. Joe Biden has been the President for the last three years.
Donald Trump, by the way, was still President at that point. If he had actually wanted to do what other people who’ve actually launched coups have done, he would’ve theoretically called the National Guard not to put down the riot but to actually depose the sitting Government of the United States in the name of a specious legal theory. He did not do that, he did not attempt that. Nobody working for him did that. The most you can say, I think, about what everybody was doing… and I don’t want to say everybody. We can talk about Trump because this is really about Trump.
He used a phrase that Trump was disseminating knowingly false information. The word that’s carrying a lot of weight there is the word knowingly. Knowingly implies a knower. Do I think the information he was disseminating was false? Yes. Do I think that Donald Trump has unique capacity to convince himself of nearly anything that is to his own benefit? Absolutely. And I think that that’s actually what Donald Trump was doing there, and the evidence for that is Donald Trump being a human and all of us watching him for the last several years.
So the idea that he knew it to be false, I’m not even sure those standards apply in any… just assessing him as a human, which is really what we’re being asked to do because there’s an intent element to this crime. Do you think that today, Donald Trump knows that he lost the election?
Destiny
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Ben Shapiro
So I don’t, actually. I think that-
So I don’t, actually. I think that-
Destiny
So I’m glad that you have the attorney background. When we are assessing mens rea, when we’re looking at certain criminal statutes where intent is required, it’s a reasonable person standard, right?
So I’m glad that you have the attorney background. When we are assessing mens rea, when we’re looking at certain criminal statutes where intent is required, it’s a reasonable person standard, right?
Ben Shapiro
Well-
Well-
Destiny
Would a reasonable person have known that they were-
Would a reasonable person have known that they were-
Ben Shapiro
No, it depends on the mens rea standard. So it’s not the same in every case. If you have to establish individual intent, then it’s not enough to say a reasonable person should have known. That would be enough for a negligent statute.
No, it depends on the mens rea standard. So it’s not the same in every case. If you have to establish individual intent, then it’s not enough to say a reasonable person should have known. That would be enough for a negligent statute.
Destiny
Sure, but for-
Sure, but for-
Ben Shapiro
Usually when you’re talking about reasonable person statutes, just legally speaking, a reasonable person statute is should a reasonable person have known. That’s when you get to manslaughter. You can’t do a reasonable person standard on first degree murder.
Usually when you’re talking about reasonable person statutes, just legally speaking, a reasonable person statute is should a reasonable person have known. That’s when you get to manslaughter. You can’t do a reasonable person standard on first degree murder.
Destiny
So for-
So for-
Ben Shapiro
You have to establish actual motive and first degree murder.
You have to establish actual motive and first degree murder.
Destiny
But for first degree murder, you don’t need the statement of, “I plan to kill this person,” or “I intend to kill this person.”
But for first degree murder, you don’t need the statement of, “I plan to kill this person,” or “I intend to kill this person.”
Ben Shapiro
No. No, you need a-
No. No, you need a-
Destiny
We can prove that state of mind from a ton of other circumstantial evidence.
We can prove that state of mind from a ton of other circumstantial evidence.
Ben Shapiro
Correct. Yes, sure. You can prove it.
Correct. Yes, sure. You can prove it.
Destiny
So I feel like my feeling for Donald Trump was there were all these people around him that he trusted to investigate election fraud. He trusted Barr and the DOJ. He asked Pence, his Vice President, to look into it. He asked his chief of staff, he asked his legal counsel. He asked so many people that, ostensibly, he trusts them if he’s asked them to look into it, and when all of them looked into it and reported back to him, “No, we found nothing.” Unless we’re going to literally make the concession that Trump might actually be a delusional psycho man, at that point, should he not have realized, well, okay, maybe this thing-
So I feel like my feeling for Donald Trump was there were all these people around him that he trusted to investigate election fraud. He trusted Barr and the DOJ. He asked Pence, his Vice President, to look into it. He asked his chief of staff, he asked his legal counsel. He asked so many people that, ostensibly, he trusts them if he’s asked them to look into it, and when all of them looked into it and reported back to him, “No, we found nothing.” Unless we’re going to literally make the concession that Trump might actually be a delusional psycho man, at that point, should he not have realized, well, okay, maybe this thing-
Ben Shapiro
I think he should have realized the day of the election that he lost the election, but that’s not what-
I think he should have realized the day of the election that he lost the election, but that’s not what-
Destiny
Sure. But I’m saying that, at that point, should he not have known that for him to go and propagate those claims that he’d asked all of the people he trusted to research, and then for him to take those claims to Michigan and to Georgia and then publicly and to try to convince people to throw out the election. You don’t think that-
Sure. But I’m saying that, at that point, should he not have known that for him to go and propagate those claims that he’d asked all of the people he trusted to research, and then for him to take those claims to Michigan and to Georgia and then publicly and to try to convince people to throw out the election. You don’t think that-
Ben Shapiro
But you’re doing the same thing. You’re reverting to should a reasonable person have known. Yes, a reasonable person should have known. Did Donald Trump know? That’s a different question, and so conflating those two questions is going to get you into some messy territory. By the way, this is why Jack Smith charged the way Jack Smith charged.
But you’re doing the same thing. You’re reverting to should a reasonable person have known. Yes, a reasonable person should have known. Did Donald Trump know? That’s a different question, and so conflating those two questions is going to get you into some messy territory. By the way, this is why Jack Smith charged the way Jack Smith charged.
Destiny
Yeah, which was-
Yeah, which was-
Ben Shapiro
But Jack Smith did not charge conspiracy. Jack Smith did not charge insurrection. He did not charge seditious conspiracy, right?
But Jack Smith did not charge conspiracy. Jack Smith did not charge insurrection. He did not charge seditious conspiracy, right?
Destiny
But I think for Jack Smith-
But I think for Jack Smith-
Ben Shapiro
Jack Smith is a good lawyer. What he’s doing is he’s actually broadly, I would say pretty obviously, expanding statutory coverage in weird areas in order to cover a thing that doesn’t quite fit into any of these legal categories. But the point that I’m making is that Jack Smith is on my side of this. He doesn’t think that he can actually establish the intent necessary to convict under a seditious conspiracy or an insurrection charge.
Jack Smith is a good lawyer. What he’s doing is he’s actually broadly, I would say pretty obviously, expanding statutory coverage in weird areas in order to cover a thing that doesn’t quite fit into any of these legal categories. But the point that I’m making is that Jack Smith is on my side of this. He doesn’t think that he can actually establish the intent necessary to convict under a seditious conspiracy or an insurrection charge.
Destiny
I agree with that, but I think a lot of the underlying facts though, because he does bring up those calls to Raffensperger in Georgia, he does bring up and the indictments that they were knowingly false information. So it seems like that’s going to be part of the case. Maybe not to convict on any of the four particular charges that he mentioned, but it seems like that’s probably going to be part of what he’s going to have to establish in court to convict Trump.
I agree with that, but I think a lot of the underlying facts though, because he does bring up those calls to Raffensperger in Georgia, he does bring up and the indictments that they were knowingly false information. So it seems like that’s going to be part of the case. Maybe not to convict on any of the four particular charges that he mentioned, but it seems like that’s probably going to be part of what he’s going to have to establish in court to convict Trump.
Ben Shapiro
So I want to look at the actual text of the charges. So I’m sorry that I don’t have them memorized. I believe one’s a fraud charge that generally does not apply to cases like this. Generally, the fraud charge is like you’re trying to steal money from the Government. One is-
So I want to look at the actual text of the charges. So I’m sorry that I don’t have them memorized. I believe one’s a fraud charge that generally does not apply to cases like this. Generally, the fraud charge is like you’re trying to steal money from the Government. One is-
Destiny
Sure. Fraud has been used pretty broadly in the past though. Because Smith has done oral arguments in response to a lot of the claims by Trump’s lawyers. This was one of them. The infinite civil and criminal immunity was another one of them where he cites past cases where these types of things, because I think it was to defraud of civil rights, I think was the fourth charge.
Sure. Fraud has been used pretty broadly in the past though. Because Smith has done oral arguments in response to a lot of the claims by Trump’s lawyers. This was one of them. The infinite civil and criminal immunity was another one of them where he cites past cases where these types of things, because I think it was to defraud of civil rights, I think was the fourth charge.
Ben Shapiro
Right. So the defraud of civil rights is usually somebody standing in the actual voting house door and preventing you from voting, not you have a specious legal theory that you espouse in court about whether those votes should be thrown out.
Right. So the defraud of civil rights is usually somebody standing in the actual voting house door and preventing you from voting, not you have a specious legal theory that you espouse in court about whether those votes should be thrown out.
Destiny
Sure, although I don’t like… when we say specious legal theory and novel application, which I do agree, some of these in some ways is novel. I don’t think we’ve ever also had a President try to do this before. It is a novel situation-
Sure, although I don’t like… when we say specious legal theory and novel application, which I do agree, some of these in some ways is novel. I don’t think we’ve ever also had a President try to do this before. It is a novel situation-
Ben Shapiro
Well-
Well-
Destiny
… where somebody has resisted the peaceful transfer of power this clearly in so many different ways.
… where somebody has resisted the peaceful transfer of power this clearly in so many different ways.
Ben Shapiro
Well, if you’re talking about the legal cases, I mean that’s not true. Gore sued in 2000. I mean, if we’re talking legal cases, right?
Well, if you’re talking about the legal cases, I mean that’s not true. Gore sued in 2000. I mean, if we’re talking legal cases, right?
Destiny
If this was comparable to Gore, then-
If this was comparable to Gore, then-
Ben Shapiro
I’m not saying it’s comparable to Gore. I’m saying that if the idea is that espousing a legal theory in court amounts to de facto some form of election-
I’m not saying it’s comparable to Gore. I’m saying that if the idea is that espousing a legal theory in court amounts to de facto some form of election-
Destiny
Well, I’m just saying that Gore-
Well, I’m just saying that Gore-
Ben Shapiro
… denial or interference in some way, that’s not true. As a general principle, it’s over inclusive.
… denial or interference in some way, that’s not true. As a general principle, it’s over inclusive.
Destiny
Sure. Gore wasn’t trying to de-certify the vote though for states. Right? They challenged their thing to the Supreme Court, they lost their case in the Supreme Court and then power transfer happened afterwards.
Sure. Gore wasn’t trying to de-certify the vote though for states. Right? They challenged their thing to the Supreme Court, they lost their case in the Supreme Court and then power transfer happened afterwards.
Ben Shapiro
Right, and Donald Trump had a bunch of legal challenges, and then he had a rally, and then there was a riot, and then he left power.
Right, and Donald Trump had a bunch of legal challenges, and then he had a rally, and then there was a riot, and then he left power.
Destiny
Yeah, but the Eastman theory of what Pence could do in Congress is a far cry away from-
Yeah, but the Eastman theory of what Pence could do in Congress is a far cry away from-
Ben Shapiro
A truly shitty theory. I mean, make no mistake. It’s a really shitty theory.
A truly shitty theory. I mean, make no mistake. It’s a really shitty theory.
Destiny
But not just shitty. I think that if any Democrat had done this, I feel like we’d be looking at it in a far different lens. As in we would be using terms like attempted coup, a subversion of peaceful transfer of power. If a Democrat Vice President had tried to essentially say that in Congress, they could throw away the vote.
But not just shitty. I think that if any Democrat had done this, I feel like we’d be looking at it in a far different lens. As in we would be using terms like attempted coup, a subversion of peaceful transfer of power. If a Democrat Vice President had tried to essentially say that in Congress, they could throw away the vote.
Ben Shapiro
So I think what I want to get to here actually, so we can be more specific, is why are these terms important? We agree on, largely speaking, what happened. I think, the characterization of the term, we keep kind of bouncing around between two different categories, and I want to make sure we-
So I think what I want to get to here actually, so we can be more specific, is why are these terms important? We agree on, largely speaking, what happened. I think, the characterization of the term, we keep kind of bouncing around between two different categories, and I want to make sure we-
Destiny
We can dump the legal stuff actually-
We can dump the legal stuff actually-
Ben Shapiro
Okay. So we’re just talking… Fine, fine, fine.
Okay. So we’re just talking… Fine, fine, fine.
Destiny
We’re not looking at incite… because like you said, Jack Smith… nobody’s charging with incitement, and I don’t believe insurrection is part of that. So we’re dumping legal. Just in terms of like a President that is trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. So we do call that a bloodless coup or a coup or whatever contemporaneous term you want to use.
We’re not looking at incite… because like you said, Jack Smith… nobody’s charging with incitement, and I don’t believe insurrection is part of that. So we’re dumping legal. Just in terms of like a President that is trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. So we do call that a bloodless coup or a coup or whatever contemporaneous term you want to use.
Ben Shapiro
So prevent the peaceful transfer of power with all means or using means that are inappropriate, not quite the same thing. Meaning means that-
So prevent the peaceful transfer of power with all means or using means that are inappropriate, not quite the same thing. Meaning means that-
Destiny
Using means that are inappropriate or illegal.
Using means that are inappropriate or illegal.
Ben Shapiro
Okay. So illegal? I don’t think so. I don’t think that these charges actually meet the criteria for the various charges, and we can discuss each case if you want. As far as inappropriate, sure, I think tons of inappropriate stuff. I mean, inappropriate seems not-
Okay. So illegal? I don’t think so. I don’t think that these charges actually meet the criteria for the various charges, and we can discuss each case if you want. As far as inappropriate, sure, I think tons of inappropriate stuff. I mean, inappropriate seems not-
Destiny
The reason why I don’t like the word inappropriate though is because then conservatives are very quick to say, “Well, sure he was inappropriate, but everybody who’s inappropriate.”
The reason why I don’t like the word inappropriate though is because then conservatives are very quick to say, “Well, sure he was inappropriate, but everybody who’s inappropriate.”
Ben Shapiro
I mean, I’ll concede that he’s more inappropriate than others. I just don’t see that-
I mean, I’ll concede that he’s more inappropriate than others. I just don’t see that-
Destiny
Okay, the most inappropriate?
Okay, the most inappropriate?
Ben Shapiro
Sure. I mean-
Sure. I mean-
Destiny
Okay. That’s important to me though. Does it not bother you that Donald Trump sought, through legal and extralegal and Trump magical ways of trying to entrench his power as President passed when he should have been able to? Is that not something that was incredibly troublesome?
Okay. That’s important to me though. Does it not bother you that Donald Trump sought, through legal and extralegal and Trump magical ways of trying to entrench his power as President passed when he should have been able to? Is that not something that was incredibly troublesome?
Ben Shapiro
I mean, the question to me is… the bigger question that I think the Democrats are trying to promote in this election cycle, which is this means he’s a threat to democracy sufficient that if he were to win the election, there would not be another. And my answer that is-
I mean, the question to me is… the bigger question that I think the Democrats are trying to promote in this election cycle, which is this means he’s a threat to democracy sufficient that if he were to win the election, there would not be another. And my answer that is-
Destiny
But he tried to do that last time. Could he not try it next time?
But he tried to do that last time. Could he not try it next time?
Ben Shapiro
I mean, he could try to do whatever he wants, presumably, and he would fail the same way that he did last time.
I mean, he could try to do whatever he wants, presumably, and he would fail the same way that he did last time.
Destiny
Why do we think that?
Why do we think that?
Ben Shapiro
Because he failed.
Because he failed.
Destiny
So [inaudible 01:35:33]-
So [inaudible 01:35:33]-
Ben Shapiro
Because there was a riot and in three hours… Yes.
Because there was a riot and in three hours… Yes.
Destiny
Lord, save me. Let’s say hypothetically Giuliani was the next head of the Department of Justice, Giuliani was the next Attorney General.
Lord, save me. Let’s say hypothetically Giuliani was the next head of the Department of Justice, Giuliani was the next Attorney General.
Ben Shapiro
How would he be confirmed?
How would he be confirmed?
Destiny
Well, I’m not entirely sure because so much of the Republican party, despite feeling like they don’t support Trump when it comes time to actually back him in Congress-
Well, I’m not entirely sure because so much of the Republican party, despite feeling like they don’t support Trump when it comes time to actually back him in Congress-
Ben Shapiro
Also, I would have to check whether he would be barred by a criminal conviction from holding… I don’t know the answer to that.
Also, I would have to check whether he would be barred by a criminal conviction from holding… I don’t know the answer to that.
Destiny
Sure. Well, yeah, especially with the 14th Amendment. We’re figuring out a lot of this right now. Yeah, but I mean, say if not Giuliani, say if there are any other number of insane people that Trump could theoretically put on his side of the Government that wouldn’t tell him no next time, because there were a lot of people that rebuked him. There were Republicans in a lot of the states. Right? Raffensperger is one of them. There were Republicans in his own administration. You’ve got Rosen. You’ve got Barr. There was his own Vice President. But theoretically next time, and I feel like last time going in, I’m going to do a little bit of mind reading and macro… Maybe you’ll agree, maybe you’ll disagree.
Sure. Well, yeah, especially with the 14th Amendment. We’re figuring out a lot of this right now. Yeah, but I mean, say if not Giuliani, say if there are any other number of insane people that Trump could theoretically put on his side of the Government that wouldn’t tell him no next time, because there were a lot of people that rebuked him. There were Republicans in a lot of the states. Right? Raffensperger is one of them. There were Republicans in his own administration. You’ve got Rosen. You’ve got Barr. There was his own Vice President. But theoretically next time, and I feel like last time going in, I’m going to do a little bit of mind reading and macro… Maybe you’ll agree, maybe you’ll disagree.
I think that Trump kind of thought… One, I don’t think Trump knows much at all about how the Government works. I think we probably agree with that. I think Trump probably thought that if he had people that were at least in his party and kind of camp, that they’ll basically do whatever needs to be done to give him what he wants, and with no respect for process. But now that he sees that, well, it’s not enough to just have allies; I need people that are fiercely alleged to me, would we not be worried that a guy that tried to essentially steal the election for real wouldn’t try to pick people that would be more amenable to his plans in the next administration?
Ben Shapiro
I believe in the checks and balances of American Government. I believe they worked on January 6th. So if you’re asking me, do I think that Trump has bad intent or could have bad intent with that sort of stuff, sure. Do I believe that the guardrails held and will continue to hold? Also sure.
I believe in the checks and balances of American Government. I believe they worked on January 6th. So if you’re asking me, do I think that Trump has bad intent or could have bad intent with that sort of stuff, sure. Do I believe that the guardrails held and will continue to hold? Also sure.
Destiny
So if somebody was running and they blatantly said, “I…” I don’t want to use the fascist word, but if they said, “I want to be an authoritarian, I’m going to abolish all elections,” you would say, ” Sure, he’s saying that, but I don’t think he can actually do it. So it’s okay if he runs for President.” You don’t care at all as long as you feel like the guardrails [inaudible 01:37:36]?
So if somebody was running and they blatantly said, “I…” I don’t want to use the fascist word, but if they said, “I want to be an authoritarian, I’m going to abolish all elections,” you would say, ” Sure, he’s saying that, but I don’t think he can actually do it. So it’s okay if he runs for President.” You don’t care at all as long as you feel like the guardrails [inaudible 01:37:36]?
Ben Shapiro
I mean, I might prefer other candidates, but I think that also one of the things that you do is that politicians… Again, this would be an exceptional circumstance, but politicians constantly make promises about the things that they’re going to do and then don’t fulfill, and we tend to take those out in the wash, meaning that, if I promise that day one, as Donald Trump has pledged to do that, he’s going to deport literally every illegal immigrant into the country, do I think he’s actually going to do that? I mean, I really highly doubt it. He didn’t do it last time he was in office. There are many examples of this.
I mean, I might prefer other candidates, but I think that also one of the things that you do is that politicians… Again, this would be an exceptional circumstance, but politicians constantly make promises about the things that they’re going to do and then don’t fulfill, and we tend to take those out in the wash, meaning that, if I promise that day one, as Donald Trump has pledged to do that, he’s going to deport literally every illegal immigrant into the country, do I think he’s actually going to do that? I mean, I really highly doubt it. He didn’t do it last time he was in office. There are many examples of this.
Destiny
I agree.
I agree.
Ben Shapiro
Here’s my question. Do you think the guardrails are going to fail to hold?
Here’s my question. Do you think the guardrails are going to fail to hold?
Destiny
I’m not sure.
I’m not sure.
Ben Shapiro
Really?
Really?
Destiny
Yeah, because I think the issue is one, when it’s election time, Republicans are spineless in office, and I don’t know how many congressmen would support what he wants just because they want to win reelection or because they think it’s inevitable anyway.
Yeah, because I think the issue is one, when it’s election time, Republicans are spineless in office, and I don’t know how many congressmen would support what he wants just because they want to win reelection or because they think it’s inevitable anyway.
Ben Shapiro
I mean, I think that one of the things that happened in 2022 is Democrats ran directly on this platform, and a bunch of Republicans who were running on this platform. Literally every Secretary of State who ran on the Donald Trump, we should deny elections platform, lost in every state.
I mean, I think that one of the things that happened in 2022 is Democrats ran directly on this platform, and a bunch of Republicans who were running on this platform. Literally every Secretary of State who ran on the Donald Trump, we should deny elections platform, lost in every state.
Destiny
Sure, but are there Republicans that have been-
Sure, but are there Republicans that have been-
Ben Shapiro
A great way to lose local office is this.
A great way to lose local office is this.
Destiny
Sure, but I mean, look at what happened with like Kinzinger and Cheney, right, who were very staunchly anti-Trump after J6 for that select committee, right? Kinzinger even run again, and Cheney lost her election by I think the widest margin that anybody has ever lost an election ever, in the history of all of US politics.
Sure, but I mean, look at what happened with like Kinzinger and Cheney, right, who were very staunchly anti-Trump after J6 for that select committee, right? Kinzinger even run again, and Cheney lost her election by I think the widest margin that anybody has ever lost an election ever, in the history of all of US politics.
Ben Shapiro
Right, yeah. People who were not yet born voted against her, yes.
Right, yeah. People who were not yet born voted against her, yes.
Destiny
Yeah. I guess it’s a surprising position to me for me, if we’re looking at principled stances of Government, the idea that a man who has… and I think we both agree on this, that Donald Trump’s only allegiance is to Donald Trump, right? We agree on that. The only thing he cares about is Donald Trump.
Yeah. I guess it’s a surprising position to me for me, if we’re looking at principled stances of Government, the idea that a man who has… and I think we both agree on this, that Donald Trump’s only allegiance is to Donald Trump, right? We agree on that. The only thing he cares about is Donald Trump.
Abuse of power
Ben Shapiro
I don’t think it’s the only thing he care about it. I think it’s certainly the largest thing he cares about.
I don’t think it’s the only thing he care about it. I think it’s certainly the largest thing he cares about.
Destiny
It’s the largest thing he cares about, right?
It’s the largest thing he cares about, right?
Ben Shapiro
Sure.
Sure.
Destiny
So you’ve got a man who only cares about himself.
So you’ve got a man who only cares about himself.
Ben Shapiro
Welcome to politics. I mean, it may more-
Welcome to politics. I mean, it may more-
Destiny
But that’s not even-
But that’s not even-
Ben Shapiro
It may be more with Trump, but it’s certainly not unique to Trump.
It may be more with Trump, but it’s certainly not unique to Trump.
Destiny
I think that the issue with Trump too though is I think he’s even a threat to the Republican party in which I think… I think you would mostly agree with me, maybe not overall, but on every individual point. Trump picks bad candidates. He has no concern for the future of the Republican Party. For instance, I think there is a chance… I don’t think it’ll happen because of the polling looks now, but if Trump didn’t get the nomination, I think Trump would say, screw it and run as an independent because he thinks he can win or whatever.
I think that the issue with Trump too though is I think he’s even a threat to the Republican party in which I think… I think you would mostly agree with me, maybe not overall, but on every individual point. Trump picks bad candidates. He has no concern for the future of the Republican Party. For instance, I think there is a chance… I don’t think it’ll happen because of the polling looks now, but if Trump didn’t get the nomination, I think Trump would say, screw it and run as an independent because he thinks he can win or whatever.
Ben Shapiro
I doubt that he would do that, but theoretically-
I doubt that he would do that, but theoretically-
Destiny
It’s possible.
It’s possible.
Ben Shapiro
Yeah. I mean, again-
Yeah. I mean, again-
Destiny
He was really content to throw Georgia… the two runoff elections under the bus because Raffensperger didn’t support him for the election stuff.
He was really content to throw Georgia… the two runoff elections under the bus because Raffensperger didn’t support him for the election stuff.
Ben Shapiro
What is all of this in serVice of? What’s the generalized argument that you’re making. I’ll go back to my question.
What is all of this in serVice of? What’s the generalized argument that you’re making. I’ll go back to my question.
Destiny
[inaudible 01:39:58]-
[inaudible 01:39:58]-
Ben Shapiro
Do you think if Trump wins, there will be no more elections?
Do you think if Trump wins, there will be no more elections?
Destiny
I don’t-
I don’t-
Ben Shapiro
Put a percentage on it. What percentage do you think that that’s a reality, that if Donald Trump becomes President-
Put a percentage on it. What percentage do you think that that’s a reality, that if Donald Trump becomes President-
Destiny
Comes general Trump wins, I think there is a 100% chance that he will try to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. In terms of would he succeed-
Comes general Trump wins, I think there is a 100% chance that he will try to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. In terms of would he succeed-
Ben Shapiro
I can guarantee you he will not do that.
I can guarantee you he will not do that.
Destiny
Why is that?
Why is that?
Ben Shapiro
Because he’s in the second term and he’s no longer eligible, and he will believe he won and he will leave.
Because he’s in the second term and he’s no longer eligible, and he will believe he won and he will leave.
Destiny
But hasn’t Donald Trump himself joked about running for a third term?
But hasn’t Donald Trump himself joked about running for a third term?
Ben Shapiro
That’s not-
That’s not-
Destiny
I think that having a third term-
I think that having a third term-
Ben Shapiro
What has Donald Trump not joked about? I mean, for god’s sake.
What has Donald Trump not joked about? I mean, for god’s sake.
Destiny
Okay, hold on. Here’s another-
Okay, hold on. Here’s another-
Ben Shapiro
If you want to prevent him from creating a revolution, you probably should actually just appoint the President and he can’t run again, so…
If you want to prevent him from creating a revolution, you probably should actually just appoint the President and he can’t run again, so…
Destiny
Here’s another broad argument that I don’t like in favor of Trump, and this was brought up earlier in terms of we talk about not grading Presidents on a curve, but then earlier we said we take Biden’s rhetoric seriously-
Here’s another broad argument that I don’t like in favor of Trump, and this was brought up earlier in terms of we talk about not grading Presidents on a curve, but then earlier we said we take Biden’s rhetoric seriously-
Ben Shapiro
No, I totally grade Trump… No, I 100% grade Presidents on a curve. Are you kidding?
No, I totally grade Trump… No, I 100% grade Presidents on a curve. Are you kidding?
Destiny
Oh, okay. Well, then I feel like-
Oh, okay. Well, then I feel like-
Ben Shapiro
I grade pretty much everybody on a curve.
I grade pretty much everybody on a curve.
Destiny
I feel like-
I feel like-
Ben Shapiro
I don’t treat my seven-year-old the same way that I treat my nine-year-old. And I don’t treat Trump the same way I treat Biden.
I don’t treat my seven-year-old the same way that I treat my nine-year-old. And I don’t treat Trump the same way I treat Biden.
Destiny
Sure, but I don’t like that it feels like we’re treating Donald Trump like a seven-year-old or a nine-year-old. I think we should treat him like the President of the United States. I don’t think having a President that has taken concrete steps to prevent the transfer of power, which he did with the electorate sham, which he did with Pence, and which he did with trying to capitalize on the J6 violence. A President that’s taken concrete steps towards coup-ing the Government essentially. I don’t know why that guy, we’d say, “Well, it’s Trump, he does Trump things. The guardrails held. They’ll probably hold next time. Let’s throw him in.”
Sure, but I don’t like that it feels like we’re treating Donald Trump like a seven-year-old or a nine-year-old. I think we should treat him like the President of the United States. I don’t think having a President that has taken concrete steps to prevent the transfer of power, which he did with the electorate sham, which he did with Pence, and which he did with trying to capitalize on the J6 violence. A President that’s taken concrete steps towards coup-ing the Government essentially. I don’t know why that guy, we’d say, “Well, it’s Trump, he does Trump things. The guardrails held. They’ll probably hold next time. Let’s throw him in.”
Ben Shapiro
I mean, when we say we shouldn’t, do you mean that he should be actually barred from office?
I mean, when we say we shouldn’t, do you mean that he should be actually barred from office?
Destiny
I’m just talking about support form. I don’t even think Republicans should support Trump. You lose your incumbent advantage. The guy’s obviously self-destructive. He’s destructive to the political party itself.
I’m just talking about support form. I don’t even think Republicans should support Trump. You lose your incumbent advantage. The guy’s obviously self-destructive. He’s destructive to the political party itself.
Lex Fridman
Do you think he should be on the ballot? You think there’s a case to be made to remove him from the ballot?
Do you think he should be on the ballot? You think there’s a case to be made to remove him from the ballot?
Destiny
I think there’s a case to be made, but man, the phrasing… For as much as our Governmental founding fathers and everybody else wrote nice amendments and wrote nice in the Constitution, some of the phrasing is very, very, very… And the section three, the not requiring any type of actual conviction, I don’t have a strong feeling on it. I will say I’m very interested in reading the majority opinion from the Supreme Court. I seriously doubt the Supreme Court is going to uphold that States should be able to decide if they leave him off the ballot or not. I think for the political future of the United States, it’s probably not healthy that the leading opposition candidate is now going to be barred from the ballot. It’s probably not healthy for us, because then what-
I think there’s a case to be made, but man, the phrasing… For as much as our Governmental founding fathers and everybody else wrote nice amendments and wrote nice in the Constitution, some of the phrasing is very, very, very… And the section three, the not requiring any type of actual conviction, I don’t have a strong feeling on it. I will say I’m very interested in reading the majority opinion from the Supreme Court. I seriously doubt the Supreme Court is going to uphold that States should be able to decide if they leave him off the ballot or not. I think for the political future of the United States, it’s probably not healthy that the leading opposition candidate is now going to be barred from the ballot. It’s probably not healthy for us, because then what-
Ben Shapiro
You want to talk about threats of democracy, that would be a pretty serious one, applied across the board by-
You want to talk about threats of democracy, that would be a pretty serious one, applied across the board by-
Destiny
It would be. However, that threat to democracy was earned by Donald Trump and the conservatives that supported him. I think conservatives made a dangerous gamble when they threw Trump into office, and now all of the fallout from that is something that we all as Americans have to deal with.
It would be. However, that threat to democracy was earned by Donald Trump and the conservatives that supported him. I think conservatives made a dangerous gamble when they threw Trump into office, and now all of the fallout from that is something that we all as Americans have to deal with.
Ben Shapiro
I mean, I think that the unprecedented legal theory that a state can simply bar somebody from the ballot in an informal way, believing that he’s, quote, unquote, an insurrectionist is pretty wild. I mean that is-
I mean, I think that the unprecedented legal theory that a state can simply bar somebody from the ballot in an informal way, believing that he’s, quote, unquote, an insurrectionist is pretty wild. I mean that is-
Destiny
We can say it’s pretty wild, but there is an amendment in the Constitution, the 14th Amendment, that says that if they have engaged in this, they shall not be, or you shall… I don’t remember the phrasing because it doesn’t require conviction, but it’s a self-executing, arguably thing.
We can say it’s pretty wild, but there is an amendment in the Constitution, the 14th Amendment, that says that if they have engaged in this, they shall not be, or you shall… I don’t remember the phrasing because it doesn’t require conviction, but it’s a self-executing, arguably thing.
Ben Shapiro
If we’re getting into constitutional law, I mean there are a number of provisions that suggest that this is, number one, not self-executing. I mean, minority opinions in the Colorado Supreme Court case are pretty thorough. The number one contention, which is that this is not self-executing because other elements are not self-executing, that ignores subsequent actual law that happened. I mean, the Congress passed a law, for example, in 1872 defining who was an insurrectionist, who is not an insurrectionist for purposes of elections. In 1994, Congress passed a law that specifically defined insurrection as a criminal activity so that somebody could theoretically be convicted of insurrection and therefore ineligible to run for office.
If we’re getting into constitutional law, I mean there are a number of provisions that suggest that this is, number one, not self-executing. I mean, minority opinions in the Colorado Supreme Court case are pretty thorough. The number one contention, which is that this is not self-executing because other elements are not self-executing, that ignores subsequent actual law that happened. I mean, the Congress passed a law, for example, in 1872 defining who was an insurrectionist, who is not an insurrectionist for purposes of elections. In 1994, Congress passed a law that specifically defined insurrection as a criminal activity so that somebody could theoretically be convicted of insurrection and therefore ineligible to run for office.
It is unlike, say, the analogs that are used by the majority opinion, like age. Obviously this is not the same thing. We can all tell what somebody’s age is by looking at their birth certificate. I can’t tell whether somebody’s an insurrectionist without any reference to a legal statute or definition of the term.
Destiny
I would also be careful with that because remember, one of Trump’s first big political actions was challenging Obama’s birth certificate.
I would also be careful with that because remember, one of Trump’s first big political actions was challenging Obama’s birth certificate.
Ben Shapiro
And I thought that was dumb at the time, but in any case…
And I thought that was dumb at the time, but in any case…
Lex Fridman
I like that you both said, 100% chance that Trump will try to go for third term and 0% chance, which statistically-
I like that you both said, 100% chance that Trump will try to go for third term and 0% chance, which statistically-
Ben Shapiro
Third term? He’s done, man. Are you kidding?
Third term? He’s done, man. Are you kidding?
Destiny
He would want to.
He would want to.
Lex Fridman
But try.
But try.
Ben Shapiro
Trump’s going to walk around, hands up high. He’s going to be like, “I’m a two-term President. I’m the only President since Grover Cleveland…” He wouldn’t know, but since Grover Cleveland who served two non-consecutive terms. I kicked Joe Biden out of office and I kicked Hillary Clinton out of office. Dude would be… he’d be living large. Are you kidding? He doesn’t want the presidency anymore after that.
Trump’s going to walk around, hands up high. He’s going to be like, “I’m a two-term President. I’m the only President since Grover Cleveland…” He wouldn’t know, but since Grover Cleveland who served two non-consecutive terms. I kicked Joe Biden out of office and I kicked Hillary Clinton out of office. Dude would be… he’d be living large. Are you kidding? He doesn’t want the presidency anymore after that.
Destiny
I think it’s scary that Donald Trump… It feels like for all of the accusations that are made sometimes against Democrats, like Biden is ordering Garland to investigate Donald Trump and blah, blah, blah, it seems like Donald Trump would actually do that with his DOJ. Would give them orders.
I think it’s scary that Donald Trump… It feels like for all of the accusations that are made sometimes against Democrats, like Biden is ordering Garland to investigate Donald Trump and blah, blah, blah, it seems like Donald Trump would actually do that with his DOJ. Would give them orders.
Ben Shapiro
He didn’t. He didn’t. He didn’t do it with his DOJ.
He didn’t. He didn’t. He didn’t do it with his DOJ.
Destiny
Well, he kind of did though, right? So for instance, with Jeffrey Clark, Jeffrey Clark went to Rosen and Donahue and said, “Hey, listen, I need you guys to sign off on a letter that we’re going to use, essentially to bully states into overturning their elections by saying we found significant election fraud.” And part of that threat was Jeffrey Clark saying, “Listen, if you’re not going to do it, Rosen, Trump’s going to fire you and just make me the acting attorney general.” That was the threat that he carried, and I think Trump repeated that threat in a meeting later on that was only rebuked when I think like half the White House staff said, “If you do this, we’re resigning.”
Well, he kind of did though, right? So for instance, with Jeffrey Clark, Jeffrey Clark went to Rosen and Donahue and said, “Hey, listen, I need you guys to sign off on a letter that we’re going to use, essentially to bully states into overturning their elections by saying we found significant election fraud.” And part of that threat was Jeffrey Clark saying, “Listen, if you’re not going to do it, Rosen, Trump’s going to fire you and just make me the acting attorney general.” That was the threat that he carried, and I think Trump repeated that threat in a meeting later on that was only rebuked when I think like half the White House staff said, “If you do this, we’re resigning.”
Ben Shapiro
Okay, so that’s a slightly different topic because now you’re getting into all the election shenanigans and all of this, but-
Okay, so that’s a slightly different topic because now you’re getting into all the election shenanigans and all of this, but-
Destiny
Sure. I’m just saying he threatened to fire his acting attorney general if he wouldn’t carry the same platform essentially. If Trump could order his DOJ to do something, would he? It’s not beyond the pale for him, right?
Sure. I’m just saying he threatened to fire his acting attorney general if he wouldn’t carry the same platform essentially. If Trump could order his DOJ to do something, would he? It’s not beyond the pale for him, right?
Ben Shapiro
It’s not beyond the pale for him to order them to do it, and then it’s not beyond the pale for them to reject him doing that, which is the story of his entire administration-
It’s not beyond the pale for him to order them to do it, and then it’s not beyond the pale for them to reject him doing that, which is the story of his entire administration-
Destiny
I agree.
I agree.
Ben Shapiro
… whereas Joe Biden orders his DOJ to do things and then they just do them.
… whereas Joe Biden orders his DOJ to do things and then they just do them.
Destiny
Well, we can get into the specifics there. It-
Well, we can get into the specifics there. It-
Ben Shapiro
This is one of the big problems that I have with… I mean, for example, all the talk about Trump tyrant, Trump executive power… I mean, Joe Biden has used executive power in ways that far outstrip anything that Donald Trump-
This is one of the big problems that I have with… I mean, for example, all the talk about Trump tyrant, Trump executive power… I mean, Joe Biden has used executive power in ways that far outstrip anything that Donald Trump-
Destiny
Every President has been stretching and stretching and stretching executive power. That’s-
Every President has been stretching and stretching and stretching executive power. That’s-
Ben Shapiro
Joe Biden has gone well beyond anything Trump even remotely attempted to maintain via just pure executive power. And actually Trump’s use of executive power is nowhere near even what Obama’s was. Obama used executive power [inaudible 01:45:44] ways.
Joe Biden has gone well beyond anything Trump even remotely attempted to maintain via just pure executive power. And actually Trump’s use of executive power is nowhere near even what Obama’s was. Obama used executive power [inaudible 01:45:44] ways.
Destiny
I mean, Trump’s inability to get border policy passed literally had him using executive power to march the military down to the border to do border policy. I mean-
I mean, Trump’s inability to get border policy passed literally had him using executive power to march the military down to the border to do border policy. I mean-
Ben Shapiro
I mean, Joe Biden literally used the Occupational Safety and Hazard Administration to try to cram down vax mandates on 80 million Americans. That’s insane.
I mean, Joe Biden literally used the Occupational Safety and Hazard Administration to try to cram down vax mandates on 80 million Americans. That’s insane.
Destiny
Sure, but why can’t-
Sure, but why can’t-
Ben Shapiro
He literally said, ” I cannot relieve student loan debt,” and then tried to relieve hundreds of billions of dollars in student loan debt.
He literally said, ” I cannot relieve student loan debt,” and then tried to relieve hundreds of billions of dollars in student loan debt.
Destiny
Yeah, but what happened to that?
Yeah, but what happened to that?
Ben Shapiro
It got struck down by the Supreme Court, and then they still did it. They still did it. Biden brags about it. He brags about having relief [inaudible 01:46:13].
It got struck down by the Supreme Court, and then they still did it. They still did it. Biden brags about it. He brags about having relief [inaudible 01:46:13].
Destiny
For what he was able to relieve, which I think were related to particular types of student loan debt. But I’m just saying that well, the guardrails are holding with Biden as much as they’re holding with Trump. The only difference is that once Biden exhausts his executive power, he’s not running around lying to people or trying to extort people or trying to and concoct insane schemes.
For what he was able to relieve, which I think were related to particular types of student loan debt. But I’m just saying that well, the guardrails are holding with Biden as much as they’re holding with Trump. The only difference is that once Biden exhausts his executive power, he’s not running around lying to people or trying to extort people or trying to and concoct insane schemes.
Ben Shapiro
Well, I mean, here’s the way I would think of this. Think of the guardrails holding as the filter, meaning the coffee is in the filter. What you want is going to get through and all the stuff that the guardrails prevent the other stuff from getting through. Now the question becomes what liquid are you pouring into the filter? Meaning if the filter exists, if the guardrails hold, and if Donald Trump can’t steal elections, what’s the policy that comes through the other end of the filter? The policy I get from Donald Trump on the other end of the filter is a bunch of stuff that I like. The policy that I get from Joe Biden on the other end of the filter is a bunch of bullshit I don’t. So that’s the basic calculation.
Well, I mean, here’s the way I would think of this. Think of the guardrails holding as the filter, meaning the coffee is in the filter. What you want is going to get through and all the stuff that the guardrails prevent the other stuff from getting through. Now the question becomes what liquid are you pouring into the filter? Meaning if the filter exists, if the guardrails hold, and if Donald Trump can’t steal elections, what’s the policy that comes through the other end of the filter? The policy I get from Donald Trump on the other end of the filter is a bunch of stuff that I like. The policy that I get from Joe Biden on the other end of the filter is a bunch of bullshit I don’t. So that’s the basic calculation.
Destiny
Okay, so then the idea is essentially that Donald Trump’s rhetoric is insane, but we don’t care. Donald Trump would probably try to steal an election if he could, but he probably won’t be able to.
Okay, so then the idea is essentially that Donald Trump’s rhetoric is insane, but we don’t care. Donald Trump would probably try to steal an election if he could, but he probably won’t be able to.
Ben Shapiro
He’s not going to do it again. I told you. He’s not-
He’s not going to do it again. I told you. He’s not-
Destiny
You don’t think he has any… Why not?
You don’t think he has any… Why not?
Ben Shapiro
Because he won’t be eligible to be on the ballot in… I mean, by the way, you want to talk about 14th Amendment? That’s where the 14th Amendment applies. Okay? That’s where it actually applies, meaning he’s not qualified to be on the ballot in 2028 if he’s the President of the United States. States can literally, in self-executing fashion, take him off the ballot. Just like he’s passed the age of 35, once you have been President two times, you’re no longer eligible to be President of the United States.
Because he won’t be eligible to be on the ballot in… I mean, by the way, you want to talk about 14th Amendment? That’s where the 14th Amendment applies. Okay? That’s where it actually applies, meaning he’s not qualified to be on the ballot in 2028 if he’s the President of the United States. States can literally, in self-executing fashion, take him off the ballot. Just like he’s passed the age of 35, once you have been President two times, you’re no longer eligible to be President of the United States.
Destiny
Why-
Why-
Ben Shapiro
Then you actually have a strong case to keep him off the ballot.
Then you actually have a strong case to keep him off the ballot.
Destiny
Yeah, but why would the 14th Amendment stop him if he thought Vice President Pence could unilaterally decide the outcome of the election?
Yeah, but why would the 14th Amendment stop him if he thought Vice President Pence could unilaterally decide the outcome of the election?
Ben Shapiro
When he’s not on the ballot? So now your theory is that he’s going to get re-elected, and then in 2028, he’s not even going to be on the ballot and he’s going to direct his new Vice President, Kerry Lake, to simply declare him President of the United States when he has not been on a ballot?
When he’s not on the ballot? So now your theory is that he’s going to get re-elected, and then in 2028, he’s not even going to be on the ballot and he’s going to direct his new Vice President, Kerry Lake, to simply declare him President of the United States when he has not been on a ballot?
Destiny
I don’t know what the scheme would be. I think we can kind of laugh and say there’s no scheme we could even concoct, but I think that-
I don’t know what the scheme would be. I think we can kind of laugh and say there’s no scheme we could even concoct, but I think that-
Ben Shapiro
Macho, like with the machine gun, he’s going to walk into the-
Macho, like with the machine gun, he’s going to walk into the-
Destiny
I think the issue though is that the idea of electing another President that has tried to circumvent the peaceful transfer of power using extralegal means and then pretending like we can’t concoct a single scheme that he could try to circumvent other legal processes to have a third term or to have a longer term or to install who he wants as the next President… When a person has already shown you who they are and when every single person around him agrees with that, when every single person that’s worked with him, save for, what? Sydney Powell, Eastman and Giuliani, which I don’t think anybody would want to throw their lot in with those three, it just seems wild to me that we would say like, “Yeah, we’re just going to go ahead and trust this guy with another term or President, but he can’t run for a third term, so it’s fine,” when there’s like 50 million other things he could concoct-
I think the issue though is that the idea of electing another President that has tried to circumvent the peaceful transfer of power using extralegal means and then pretending like we can’t concoct a single scheme that he could try to circumvent other legal processes to have a third term or to have a longer term or to install who he wants as the next President… When a person has already shown you who they are and when every single person around him agrees with that, when every single person that’s worked with him, save for, what? Sydney Powell, Eastman and Giuliani, which I don’t think anybody would want to throw their lot in with those three, it just seems wild to me that we would say like, “Yeah, we’re just going to go ahead and trust this guy with another term or President, but he can’t run for a third term, so it’s fine,” when there’s like 50 million other things he could concoct-
Ben Shapiro
I’ll make you the case that if you want him not to make election trouble, you should elect him President in the next election cycle, and then he will be ineligible.
I’ll make you the case that if you want him not to make election trouble, you should elect him President in the next election cycle, and then he will be ineligible.
Destiny
Okay. I find that be a wholly unconvincing argument, but okay.
Okay. I find that be a wholly unconvincing argument, but okay.
Wokeism
Lex Fridman
Well, recently in the news, the Presidents of Harvard, Penn and MIT failed to fully denounce calls for genocide, and that rose questions about the influence of DEI programs at universities. And so maybe either looking at this or zooming out more broadly at identity politics at universities or identity politics, wokeism in our culture, how big of a threat is it to our culture to Western civilization, Ben?
Well, recently in the news, the Presidents of Harvard, Penn and MIT failed to fully denounce calls for genocide, and that rose questions about the influence of DEI programs at universities. And so maybe either looking at this or zooming out more broadly at identity politics at universities or identity politics, wokeism in our culture, how big of a threat is it to our culture to Western civilization, Ben?
Ben Shapiro
So obviously I’m going to say it’s a huge threat. The reason that I think this is a huge threat… I want to give a definition of wokeism because people are very often accused of not using wokeism properly or believing that it’s sort of a catchall phrase. I don’t think it’s a catchall term. I think that wokeism has its roots in postmodernism, which essentially suggests that every principle is a reflection of underlying structures of power, and that therefore any inequality that emerges under such a system is a reflection, again, of that structure of power.
So obviously I’m going to say it’s a huge threat. The reason that I think this is a huge threat… I want to give a definition of wokeism because people are very often accused of not using wokeism properly or believing that it’s sort of a catchall phrase. I don’t think it’s a catchall term. I think that wokeism has its roots in postmodernism, which essentially suggests that every principle is a reflection of underlying structures of power, and that therefore any inequality that emerges under such a system is a reflection, again, of that structure of power.
That used to be applied in sort of Marxist ways, the suggestion being that economic inequality was the result of misallocation of power in the structure preserved by an upper crust of people who wanted to cram down exploitation on people. That was sort of the Marxist version of postmodernism, and that got transmuted into sort of a racial version of postmodernism in which the systems of the United States are white supremacist in orientation, and are perpetuated by a group of people who are in fact in favor of the preservation of white power and white supremacy. That is the generalized theory of Critical Race Theory as proposed by, for example, Jean Stefancic and Richard Delgado in their book on Critical Race Theory.
That has taken a softer form that we refer to as DEI. The key in DEI is the E, meaning equity. So equity is a term that does not mean equality. People mix it up. Equality is the idea that we all ought to have equal rights, that we all ought to be treated equally by the law. Equity is the idea that if there is an inequality that emerges from any system, it is therefore due to discrimination, and the best way to tell whether somebody has been victimized is by dint of their race, and we can tell whether you’re a member of an oppressed group or an oppressor group by the intersectional identity that you carry, and by the nature of your group’s success or failure predominantly along economic and power lines in American life.
This means that if one group is predominantly successful economically, they must be a member of the victimizing class, and the only corrective for that would be, as Ibram X. Kendi likes to suggest, effectively anti-racist policies, racism in the serVice of destroying racism. That you’re going to have to in order to correct for discrimination that’s baked into the system. That’s incredibly dangerous. It leads to a victim-victimizer narrative that is unhealthy for individuals and terrible for societies. It relieves people of individual responsibility and it destroys the very notion of an objective metric by which we can decide meritocracy and meritocracy is the only system human beings have ever devised that has positive externalities in literally any area of life.
Every other distribution of wealth, power done along other lines that is not having to do with merit, has negative externalities. Every system having to do with merit has positive externalities because presumably the most effective and useful people are going to succeed under those systems. That’s the very basis of a meritocracy. And the externalities of that mean that other people benefit from the meritorious and excellent performance of those people.
Lex Fridman
Maybe it would be good to get your comments… your old stomping ground Harvard. Do you think the President Harvard should have been fired, forced out-
Maybe it would be good to get your comments… your old stomping ground Harvard. Do you think the President Harvard should have been fired, forced out-
Ben Shapiro
I mean, I think she should’ve been fired not over the plagiarism allegations. I think she should have been fired based on her performance just at that congressional hearing. If the word black had been substituted for Jew in that statement by Elise Stefanik, that she was asking about-
I mean, I think she should’ve been fired not over the plagiarism allegations. I think she should have been fired based on her performance just at that congressional hearing. If the word black had been substituted for Jew in that statement by Elise Stefanik, that she was asking about-
Destiny
Or trans.
Or trans.
Ben Shapiro
… or literally any other minority in America, maybe with the exception of Asian, then the answer would’ve been very different coming from Claudine Gay. With that said, I don’t think the firing of Claudine Gay really accomplishes very much. Did she get what she deserved? Sure. Does that mean that the underlying DEI equity-based system has been in any way severely damaged? No. I think that this is a way for universities, this is true for McGill and Penn also, to basically throw somebody overboard as the sacrifice to maintain the underlying system that continues to predominate at American universities where they spend literally billions of dollars every year on DEI initiatives and diversity hires and diversity administrators and all of this.
… or literally any other minority in America, maybe with the exception of Asian, then the answer would’ve been very different coming from Claudine Gay. With that said, I don’t think the firing of Claudine Gay really accomplishes very much. Did she get what she deserved? Sure. Does that mean that the underlying DEI equity-based system has been in any way severely damaged? No. I think that this is a way for universities, this is true for McGill and Penn also, to basically throw somebody overboard as the sacrifice to maintain the underlying system that continues to predominate at American universities where they spend literally billions of dollars every year on DEI initiatives and diversity hires and diversity administrators and all of this.
I mean, one of the costs of education escalating is in the massive administrative function that is now undertaken by universities, as opposed to teaching and cost of dorms and such.
Lex Fridman
You guys probably agree on a lot of this, right?
You guys probably agree on a lot of this, right?
Destiny
Kind of. Maybe, yeah. I don’t know what makes things do this, but it feels like we can never have a good thing and then have it end as a good thing. Things always get taken to their extreme, and then we have to fight on those extremes. I would argue that… Back in my day, we called it SJWs, Social Justice Warriors, before it became woke. I think it was like 2013 onwards, whatever. There are aspects to wokeism that I think are good. Like I like the additional representation that we have in media now. I like how, as much as people complain about the internet and how it’s regulated, that there are way more groups that are represented on the internet, whether we’re talking X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, or Facebook or whatever. Or whether we’re pushing women’s achievements in school and in the wider workforce. I think that these are all good things.
Kind of. Maybe, yeah. I don’t know what makes things do this, but it feels like we can never have a good thing and then have it end as a good thing. Things always get taken to their extreme, and then we have to fight on those extremes. I would argue that… Back in my day, we called it SJWs, Social Justice Warriors, before it became woke. I think it was like 2013 onwards, whatever. There are aspects to wokeism that I think are good. Like I like the additional representation that we have in media now. I like how, as much as people complain about the internet and how it’s regulated, that there are way more groups that are represented on the internet, whether we’re talking X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, or Facebook or whatever. Or whether we’re pushing women’s achievements in school and in the wider workforce. I think that these are all good things.
The issue that you run into is people don’t ever have a stopping point, and I think people kind of get lost in this woke-for-woke-sake thing where we start to see these very weird workings of these academic, I guess, arguments that are used for really horrible things. So for instance, I think that you can talk about in the United States, things like white supremacy or things like Oppression or certain demographics, especially with Jim Crow laws and pre-Jim Crow, and you can even talk about effects from that.
But then when you run into this weird world where we’ve kind of worked these things so that not only is white supremacy still as present today as it ever has been, well actually black people and other minorities can’t even be racist. They don’t have the power to, because we’re going to use a different definition of racism and we can only talk about punching up as opposed to punching down. And then we’re actually going to say it’s totally okay for these people to say or do whatever they want, and it’s never bad. But white people, who have always been the oppressors, even if you’re like a trailer park guy whose family’s addicted to meth, you have all this privilege, etc, etc.
I think that you run into these issues where woke ism, it starts off as a really good idea and I would argue has achieved really good things, especially in regards to women’s education and everything, and then it just gets so academia-ized… There’s a word there, academic, whatever, where you take something and you put it into school too much and then it comes out as some Frankenstein cancer baby of horrible things, such that today when I’m reading stuff, and I know Ben is the same way, if I even hear somebody say the word anti-racism, I’m probably ignoring every other thing you have to say.
Institutional capture
If you utter the word like colonial anything, I’m probably going to say you probably don’t have anything good to say. Yeah, a lot of it has just taken way too far. But you know what I will blame on some of this is I will blame conservatives for some of this-
Destiny
But you know what I will blame on some of this is I will blame conservatives for some of this because I think one issue that happens, and I think Ben might even agree with me here too, is I think there’s two huge problems that have happened in the United States I think broadly speaking is that, one, we become more different than we ever have been. And, two, we become more similar than we ever have been. And when I say this, what I mean is like we’re splitting off into these groups and then these groups are enforcing this insane homogeneity between these two separate groups. I think one of these schisms has been conservatives’ reluctancy to participate in things related to higher education.
But you know what I will blame on some of this is I will blame conservatives for some of this because I think one issue that happens, and I think Ben might even agree with me here too, is I think there’s two huge problems that have happened in the United States I think broadly speaking is that, one, we become more different than we ever have been. And, two, we become more similar than we ever have been. And when I say this, what I mean is like we’re splitting off into these groups and then these groups are enforcing this insane homogeneity between these two separate groups. I think one of these schisms has been conservatives’ reluctancy to participate in things related to higher education.
For a long time, conservatives are saying, oh, the educational institutions are against us. Rush Limbaugh talks about how evil the colleges are and blah, blah, blah. And then what happens is conservatives are less and less willing to engage in them. So then you get this scenario or this environment where everybody that’s engaged in academia on the administrative side are fucking insane. They’re even more so to, and I also want to draw a distinction between the administrators and the faculty because oftentimes when you’re reading story after story after story of all of these insane admins that are pushing further and further left, usually the faculty is fighting against it. A lot of the tenure professors, a lot of people in their departments are saying, hold on, well, we actually don’t agree with this.
But I feel like, because conservatives for so long have demonized these institutions rather than critically evaluated them and tried to have honest critique and engagement, that they’ve just completely broken off. And when you only have a bunch of lefties or righties together, all they’ll do is they veer off even more into their insane directions. I feel like that’s a big problem that we’ve run into in the country to where conservatives have totally broken off some conversations, broken away from where they won’t participate in them anymore, and then the people that you have left just run as far to the left as possible.
Ben Shapiro
Certainly when you look at certain institutions, I think that one of the things that people on both sides of the aisle are constantly looking at is has the institution suffered such capture that there is just no capacity to fix it? And when you talk about the universities, I’m not going to blame conservatives for the failure of the universities because they haven’t been present in major positions at universities since effectively the late 1960s. You can go read Shelby Steele’s work on this where he talks about how he used to be, he’s now a conservative black person. He was a liberal black person at the time. He was actually quite a radical black activist at the time in the ’60s. And he talks about walking into the office of liberal administrators who were largely on his side with regard to civil rights, and being a radical, him claiming that the systems of the university were inherently broken, were inherently wrong, unfixable.
Certainly when you look at certain institutions, I think that one of the things that people on both sides of the aisle are constantly looking at is has the institution suffered such capture that there is just no capacity to fix it? And when you talk about the universities, I’m not going to blame conservatives for the failure of the universities because they haven’t been present in major positions at universities since effectively the late 1960s. You can go read Shelby Steele’s work on this where he talks about how he used to be, he’s now a conservative black person. He was a liberal black person at the time. He was actually quite a radical black activist at the time in the ’60s. And he talks about walking into the office of liberal administrators who were largely on his side with regard to civil rights, and being a radical, him claiming that the systems of the university were inherently broken, were inherently wrong, unfixable.
And he talks about this, it’s a very evocative episode where he’s talking about how he’s smoking, and as he’s smoking, the ash is growing more and more, and the ash falls down on this very expensive carpet. And the president of the university who’s listening to him rant and rave, Shelby Steele says, “I thought he was going to say something about this. I mean, I was wrecking a thousand dollar carpet in his office being a jackass, and instead, I could see him wilt inside. I could see him collapse. He didn’t have the institutional credibility or sort of the spiritual strength to just say, ‘Listen, I agree with you on some of these things, but you’re acting like a jackass.'” And what you see in the late 1960s and early 1970s is in fact the collapse of these institutions to the point where, by the time I was going to college, there was this radical disproportion between conservatives and liberals.
The problem is that when it comes to a system like the universities, basically you have to separate the universities off into two separate categories. One is STEM, where the universities are still pretty damn good. American universities, when it comes to STEM, are still leading universities in the world. Harvard’s main creations these days are coming from actual hard science field. Then you have the liberal arts field in which you basically have a self-perpetuating elite because that’s actually how dissertations work. If you have somebody who’s very far to the left and you decide that you’re going to write a dissertation on the history of American gun rights, the chances that that is going to be approved by your dissertation advisor are much lower than if you happen to write something that tends to agree with the political positions of your dissertation advisor. Now, listen, I think there are open and tolerant professors, even in the liberal arts at these universities.
I went to these universities. I went to UCLA, I went to Harvard Law School. When I was at Harvard Law School, one of my favorite professors was Lani Guinier. Lani Guinier, they tried to appoint her, I believe, Secretary of Labor under Clinton. And she was too liberal and she got rejected. So she was like a full- on communist. By the time I went there, she was great. We had debates every day. It was wonderful. She used to write me recommendations for my legal jobs. After we left, Randall Kennedy, I don’t agree with him very much. Randall Kennedy was terrific professor. There are some professors who are like this. Unfortunately, there tends to be, in these echo chambers, more and more ideological conformity that is rigorously enforced, and it is by left on left. So, for example, when I was at Harvard Law School, the president of the university was another president who ended up being ousted, Larry Summers.
Larry Summers had been the Secretary of Treasury under Bill Clinton, and he made the critical error of suggesting that perhaps the dearth of women in hard sciences in prestigious positions was due to possibly two factors that people were refusing to talk about. One was the possibility that women actually didn’t want to be in hard sciences at nearly the rates that men do, which happens to be true. And, two, was the distribution of STEM IQ, which is something that you certainly were not allowed to talk about. The idea that the men’s bell curve when it comes to IQ, particularly on STEM subjects, tends to be shallower than the women’s bell curve. So when you get to the very end of the bell curve, what you tend to see is a lot of really dumb guys and a lot of really smarter guys.
And so when you’re talking about the top universities, maybe that has something to do with the disproportion. And he’s trying to explain that to say that our systems are not discriminating if we end up with more men than women, maybe more men are applying and more men are qualified. That’s quite a… He was ousted for that by a left-wing faculty and general alum network at Harvard University. There’s a lot to blame conservatives for surrendering the playing field. I totally agree that conservatives should not have surrendered the playing field in some institutions. Colleges were surrendered a lot earlier than 20 years ago. They were surrendered in the late 1960s, early 1970s.
Destiny
I think that, a couple of things. One of the big issues that I have with this, I don’t know if we call it era of Trumpism or populism, is this total disregard for institutions and this disconnect from participation in the system. So it’s one of the big things that I fight with progressives about, who cares because they’re all 20 years old, they don’t vote anyway. But it’s another thing that I noticed with a lot of people that are Trump voters, Trump fans, or whatever, is this idea where we say, this institution is irrevocably destroyed, it’s irredeemable, it can’t be saved. Nothing that we do can fix it. And I think that what that leads people to doing is, one, they disconnect further.
I think that, a couple of things. One of the big issues that I have with this, I don’t know if we call it era of Trumpism or populism, is this total disregard for institutions and this disconnect from participation in the system. So it’s one of the big things that I fight with progressives about, who cares because they’re all 20 years old, they don’t vote anyway. But it’s another thing that I noticed with a lot of people that are Trump voters, Trump fans, or whatever, is this idea where we say, this institution is irrevocably destroyed, it’s irredeemable, it can’t be saved. Nothing that we do can fix it. And I think that what that leads people to doing is, one, they disconnect further.
And then, two, there’s a general hopelessness when it comes to how society is ran or structured, such that you fall into that populist brain rot of the only person that can save me is Donald Trump. I can’t trust literally anything. And I think that when you start driving people into that direction, all it does is it further amplifies all the problems that you’re complaining about. So that’s one of the reasons why when we talk about conservative participation, I want there to be more conservatives that are trying to participate in academia. But I feel like the leading thought or the leading speaking out against it is basically saying it’s a waste of time. It’s completely lost.
Ben Shapiro
So I think that the alternative to that is that you are seeing on the right a growth of, for example, alternative universities, saying-
So I think that the alternative to that is that you are seeing on the right a growth of, for example, alternative universities, saying-
Destiny
Yeah, but this is the worst thing.
Yeah, but this is the worst thing.
Ben Shapiro
No, I don’t think so at all. I think competition is a great way of incentivizing some change on behalf of universities that may have forgotten that there’s an entire another side of the aisle in the United States, meaning-
No, I don’t think so at all. I think competition is a great way of incentivizing some change on behalf of universities that may have forgotten that there’s an entire another side of the aisle in the United States, meaning-
Destiny
No shot. I don’t believe. I don’t think even you think that.
No shot. I don’t believe. I don’t think even you think that.
Ben Shapiro
So first of all, first all, let me be clear.
So first of all, first all, let me be clear.
Destiny
Go ahead.
Go ahead.
Ben Shapiro
I think the entire educational system at the upper levels, if you’re not in STEM, is a complete scam. I think it’s a complete waste of money. I think it’s a complete waste of time. And I think that it’s all it is is a formalized, very expensive sorting mechanism for people of IQ. That’s all it is. People take an SAT, you go to a good school, you take four years of bullshit. I know. I did it at UCLA. And then, we analyze based on your degree where you should go to law school. I could have gone directly from high school to law school with maybe one year of training, and then done one year of law school, and been done. Okay. The reality is that this is a giant scam, and this is, again, it’s a bipartisan problem, but it’s just a generalized problem. You want to talk about things that hurt the lower classes in the United States? The bleeding of degrees up is so wild and crazy. There’re so many jobs in the United States that should not require a college degree that we now require a college degree to do because there was this weird idea that came over Americans where they mistook correlation for causation. They would say, oh, look, people who go to college are making more money than people who don’t go to college, therefore everyone should go to college. Well, maybe the reason is because people who are going to college were better qualified for particular jobs because, on average, not all the time, but on average, a lot of those people were smarter and making more money because of that. And so all you’ve done is you’ve now created these additional layers of stratification. So a person who used to be able to get a job with a college degree now has to have a postdoc degree in order to go get that degree.
I think the entire educational system at the upper levels, if you’re not in STEM, is a complete scam. I think it’s a complete waste of money. I think it’s a complete waste of time. And I think that it’s all it is is a formalized, very expensive sorting mechanism for people of IQ. That’s all it is. People take an SAT, you go to a good school, you take four years of bullshit. I know. I did it at UCLA. And then, we analyze based on your degree where you should go to law school. I could have gone directly from high school to law school with maybe one year of training, and then done one year of law school, and been done. Okay. The reality is that this is a giant scam, and this is, again, it’s a bipartisan problem, but it’s just a generalized problem. You want to talk about things that hurt the lower classes in the United States? The bleeding of degrees up is so wild and crazy. There’re so many jobs in the United States that should not require a college degree that we now require a college degree to do because there was this weird idea that came over Americans where they mistook correlation for causation. They would say, oh, look, people who go to college are making more money than people who don’t go to college, therefore everyone should go to college. Well, maybe the reason is because people who are going to college were better qualified for particular jobs because, on average, not all the time, but on average, a lot of those people were smarter and making more money because of that. And so all you’ve done is you’ve now created these additional layers of stratification. So a person who used to be able to get a job with a college degree now has to have a postdoc degree in order to go get that degree.
A person who used to be able to just graduate high school, now it’s de facto, you got to go to JuCo, and then you got to go to college, or nobody’s even going to look at your resume. It’s really, really terrible for people who can’t afford all of that. It’s led to this massive increase in educational cost that is inexplicable other than this particular sort of bleed up. And by the way, federal subsidies for higher education, again, one of my problems with federal subsidies for higher education, I’d love for everyone to be able to go to college if qualified to do so and if it is productive. But one of the things I did when I went to law school is I took loans because a bank said I was going to get my money back if I got a law degree from Harvard. But you know when you’re not going to get your money back? If you’re a bank, you’re not going to lend to some dude who wants to major in Art Theory because is that a good bet? There’s no collateral.
If I give a loan for a house, I can go repossess the house. How do I repossess your garbage college degree from UCLA? There’s no way to do that. This is the broader conversation about education in general. I think the educational system is cruising for a bruising, and I think all that’s necessary for it to completely collapse on the non-STEM side where you actually learn things is for people who employ to simply say, give me your SAT score and I will hire you for an apprenticeship directly out of high school. That it would cut out so much of the middleman. But as far as the general point that you’re making about institutions, I may disagree on the education and how far it’s gone. In general, I agree with you. So in general, I agree. And, I guess, to use my favorite longest word in the English language here, I would consider myself in many cases an anti-disestablishmentarianist.
Lex Fridman
Nice.
Nice.
Ben Shapiro
See that? I like to drop that because if you’re an establishmentarian, that means you like the establishment.
See that? I like to drop that because if you’re an establishmentarian, that means you like the establishment.
Destiny
The opposite is disestablishmentarianism.
The opposite is disestablishmentarianism.
Ben Shapiro
Disestablishmentarianism, right? So I’m an anti-
Disestablishmentarianism, right? So I’m an anti-
Lex Fridman
Can you say that word, Destiny?
Can you say that word, Destiny?
Destiny
That’s the one we all learned growing up, anti-disestablishmentarianism.
That’s the one we all learned growing up, anti-disestablishmentarianism.
Ben Shapiro
There you go.
There you go.
Destiny
The longest word in the dictionary.
The longest word in the dictionary.
Ben Shapiro
And so he is also. But I think-
And so he is also. But I think-
Destiny
Then some candidate group say, what about supercalifragilisti- and then you’re-
Then some candidate group say, what about supercalifragilisti- and then you’re-
Ben Shapiro
What about [inaudible 02:05:51]?
What about [inaudible 02:05:51]?
Destiny
Or the science terms.
Or the science terms.
Ben Shapiro
Exactly.
Exactly.
Destiny
Or what about the 7,000 letter thing that’s from part of biochem.
Or what about the 7,000 letter thing that’s from part of biochem.
Lex Fridman
I got my education in the Soviet Union, so we just did math. Didn’t learn any of this.
I got my education in the Soviet Union, so we just did math. Didn’t learn any of this.
Ben Shapiro
That’s why you’re a useful person.
That’s why you’re a useful person.
Destiny
Soviet Union Math. Was that one plus one, how to make that equal three?
Soviet Union Math. Was that one plus one, how to make that equal three?
Ben Shapiro
We know long words, and he streams on the internet, and I talk for a living, so anyway. But the point is that I don’t disagree that there is a general populist tendency on all sides of the aisle to look at the institutions and then throw them overboard. I think that some of that is earned by people who are in positions of power at institutions who have completely undermined the faith and credibility of those institutions. I think that you have to examine institution by institutions, which ones are salvageable and which ones are not. So I’m not a full anti-disestablishmentarianism. I’d be partially in that camp. There are certain institutions like higher education in the liberal arts that I think we may be better off without. And then there are certain institutions like, say, participation in American government where when people talk about we need a revolution, like, no, we don’t. That’s not a thing. We need an evolution. We need change. We can use the system. But I think you have to establish, you have to look at it industry by industry, just institution by institution.
We know long words, and he streams on the internet, and I talk for a living, so anyway. But the point is that I don’t disagree that there is a general populist tendency on all sides of the aisle to look at the institutions and then throw them overboard. I think that some of that is earned by people who are in positions of power at institutions who have completely undermined the faith and credibility of those institutions. I think that you have to examine institution by institutions, which ones are salvageable and which ones are not. So I’m not a full anti-disestablishmentarianism. I’d be partially in that camp. There are certain institutions like higher education in the liberal arts that I think we may be better off without. And then there are certain institutions like, say, participation in American government where when people talk about we need a revolution, like, no, we don’t. That’s not a thing. We need an evolution. We need change. We can use the system. But I think you have to establish, you have to look at it industry by industry, just institution by institution.
Destiny
On that position, are institutions, do you think Biden or Trump would salvage you more?
On that position, are institutions, do you think Biden or Trump would salvage you more?
Ben Shapiro
As far as the institutions?
As far as the institutions?
Destiny
Yeah.
Yeah.
Ben Shapiro
I think the institutions in the United States at the governmental level are robust. I think the social institutions are fair.
I think the institutions in the United States at the governmental level are robust. I think the social institutions are fair.
Destiny
But I’m just curious on your general view of institutions, do you think Biden or Trump would salvage you more on how you view them?
But I’m just curious on your general view of institutions, do you think Biden or Trump would salvage you more on how you view them?
Ben Shapiro
I mean, I think that, in rhetoric, Biden would, and then I think that he would tear out the face of the institution wearing it around like a mask, like Hannibal Lecter. I mean-
I mean, I think that, in rhetoric, Biden would, and then I think that he would tear out the face of the institution wearing it around like a mask, like Hannibal Lecter. I mean-
Destiny
Even though he resisted some people’s calls to pack the court and…
Even though he resisted some people’s calls to pack the court and…
Ben Shapiro
Yes, because I think that his use of executive power was greater than that of Donald Trump. The power that he had, he used to greater effect than Donald Trump. Donald Trump, again, thrashed up against the sides of the box, but could not get out of it.
Yes, because I think that his use of executive power was greater than that of Donald Trump. The power that he had, he used to greater effect than Donald Trump. Donald Trump, again, thrashed up against the sides of the box, but could not get out of it.
Destiny
For just real quick, because that answer went a lot farther than the initial question. But just on the real quick thing, the reason why I, again, my main problem that I feel like we have today in society is people are getting into their own bubbles. The idea of having conservative schools and liberal schools seems like the saddest thing in the world to me. I would want conservatives and liberals going to school together because I think these people need to interact with each other more, if for no other reason than to say that the other person is not an actual monstrous, horrible entity that wants to destroy the country.
For just real quick, because that answer went a lot farther than the initial question. But just on the real quick thing, the reason why I, again, my main problem that I feel like we have today in society is people are getting into their own bubbles. The idea of having conservative schools and liberal schools seems like the saddest thing in the world to me. I would want conservatives and liberals going to school together because I think these people need to interact with each other more, if for no other reason than to say that the other person is not an actual monstrous, horrible entity that wants to destroy the country.
Ben Shapiro
Listen, I think a classically liberal idea for many schools would not be a bad thing. I think it would be a good thing. I just wonder if that’s salvageable. And if it’s not salvageable, then the answer to that is to actually create alternative institutions.
Listen, I think a classically liberal idea for many schools would not be a bad thing. I think it would be a good thing. I just wonder if that’s salvageable. And if it’s not salvageable, then the answer to that is to actually create alternative institutions.
Destiny
I feel like the biggest issue that we have is people are they sort into these different phantom worlds to where, even if you live in the same city, there are totally different worlds that exist between liberals and conservatives. And I feel like one of the big barriers to people understanding the other side, sometimes it’s just a little bit of information or a little bit of firsthand experience. So in terms of information, I’m sure you saw, I don’t know if this is a full-on study, but they were talking about how some huge percentage of students would change their mind on from the river to the sea when you told them what from the river to sea, actually-
I feel like the biggest issue that we have is people are they sort into these different phantom worlds to where, even if you live in the same city, there are totally different worlds that exist between liberals and conservatives. And I feel like one of the big barriers to people understanding the other side, sometimes it’s just a little bit of information or a little bit of firsthand experience. So in terms of information, I’m sure you saw, I don’t know if this is a full-on study, but they were talking about how some huge percentage of students would change their mind on from the river to the sea when you told them what from the river to sea, actually-
Ben Shapiro
What the river was and what the sea was?
What the river was and what the sea was?
Destiny
Yeah. Or when you said like, what does a one state solution mean? A lot of them, such that the numbers went from 70% to 30% in terms of support would fall. And it wasn’t because you were doing a radical redefining their whole ideology. You were just giving them a little bit more information. And then something that I’ve seen on a firsthand level is when I go and speak or do debates at universities, sometimes I’m in very, very, very conservative areas. Some of my fans are trans. Having a trans person show up and talk to conservatives for a little bit, not in a speech, but just in a bar or a setting, a lot of them walk away. They’re like, oh, not every trans person is like this insane lunatic from Twitter that is a fucking, an actual crazy person. And then for some of my fans, when they hang out with conservatives like, oh, these guys are actually pretty friendly. I thought they would’ve all been homophobic, racist, transphobic, and evil, but they’re not. They’re just like normal people. I feel like we need more of that-
Yeah. Or when you said like, what does a one state solution mean? A lot of them, such that the numbers went from 70% to 30% in terms of support would fall. And it wasn’t because you were doing a radical redefining their whole ideology. You were just giving them a little bit more information. And then something that I’ve seen on a firsthand level is when I go and speak or do debates at universities, sometimes I’m in very, very, very conservative areas. Some of my fans are trans. Having a trans person show up and talk to conservatives for a little bit, not in a speech, but just in a bar or a setting, a lot of them walk away. They’re like, oh, not every trans person is like this insane lunatic from Twitter that is a fucking, an actual crazy person. And then for some of my fans, when they hang out with conservatives like, oh, these guys are actually pretty friendly. I thought they would’ve all been homophobic, racist, transphobic, and evil, but they’re not. They’re just like normal people. I feel like we need more of that-
Ben Shapiro
I totally agree with that. Certainly.
I totally agree with that. Certainly.
Destiny
And I feel like on our social media platforms, on our algorithms, and our schools, I feel like we’re sorting harder and harder and harder, and any type of rhetoric that encourages the sorting is really bad and damaging. We need to continue to mix up. And there’s other things I wanted to talk about, but Lex is opening his mouth.
And I feel like on our social media platforms, on our algorithms, and our schools, I feel like we’re sorting harder and harder and harder, and any type of rhetoric that encourages the sorting is really bad and damaging. We need to continue to mix up. And there’s other things I wanted to talk about, but Lex is opening his mouth.
Lex Fridman
Destiny, the uniter. Wow.
Destiny, the uniter. Wow.
Destiny
Like Biden. Not like Trump.
Like Biden. Not like Trump.
Monogamy vs open relationships
Lex Fridman
As we approach the end, let us descend into the meme further and further. Ben, you’re in a monogamous marriage. And Destiny, you’ve been mostly in an open marriage until recently. How foundational is marriage, monogamous marriage, to the United States of America? Can open marriages work? Are they harmful to society? Ben.
As we approach the end, let us descend into the meme further and further. Ben, you’re in a monogamous marriage. And Destiny, you’ve been mostly in an open marriage until recently. How foundational is marriage, monogamous marriage, to the United States of America? Can open marriages work? Are they harmful to society? Ben.
Ben Shapiro
Marriages are the single most important thing that people can do in the United States because the things within your control are easier to control than the things outside your control. People tend to think about big political change, obviously about things they can do to change the entire system, but the reality is the thing that you can do that best changes society is to get married and have kids and raise your kids responsibly. That is the single best thing that you can do. Can an open marriage work? I mean, I think that it depends on your definition of work. So in my version of work, the answer is no, because what you actually need in order to facilitate the healthy growing of a child is a father and mother who are committed to each other. All ideas about there being no emotional component to sexual activity are completely specious. That it is true for men, that it is for women, but it’s not true for either.
Marriages are the single most important thing that people can do in the United States because the things within your control are easier to control than the things outside your control. People tend to think about big political change, obviously about things they can do to change the entire system, but the reality is the thing that you can do that best changes society is to get married and have kids and raise your kids responsibly. That is the single best thing that you can do. Can an open marriage work? I mean, I think that it depends on your definition of work. So in my version of work, the answer is no, because what you actually need in order to facilitate the healthy growing of a child is a father and mother who are committed to each other. All ideas about there being no emotional component to sexual activity are completely specious. That it is true for men, that it is for women, but it’s not true for either.
The idea of a full commitment to a human being with whom you genetically create children, which is typically how we’ve done it throughout human existence, is in fact the fundamental basis for any functional civilization. It allows for the transmission of culture and values. It allows for the transmission of beliefs and responsibility. And it gives the great lie to both, the communitarian lie, the atomistic individualist lie. The communitarian lie is that you belong to the giant community of man, which is not true because you have a family. And your allegiance should be and is naturally to the members of your family first. That’s how we learn, and then we expound that out.
And it also is a lie to the notion that we are all atomistic individuals with no responsibilities. We are born into a world of responsibilities. Everyone is born into a world of responsibilities, and rules, and roles. And those are good. And if we do not actually socialize our children that way, there will be, number one, no children. Number two, there will be no healthy children. Number three, there will be not the foundation for either social fabric, which is the real glue that holds together society or for a functional government. So, yes. Yes, monogamous marriage. I’m a fan. 15 years married, four kids. Yes.
Lex Fridman
Destiny, what do you think?
Destiny, what do you think?
Destiny
I think that when we talk about relationships or marriage, I think something that’s really important is we have to talk about whether or not children are being discussed or not. Because I think once you introduce the child aspect, I think the style or the type of relationship that you do is going to become way more important than whatever exists prior to that. I would agree, for instance, in terms of what Ben is saying, that there is probably going to be some structure that is ideal for the care and the raising of a child. I think that having a child gives you a much bigger buy-in to society because now, all of a sudden, you care about a lot of things that you might not have before because not only do you exist in society, you can’t just run. Now you’ve got a child that exists there and you’ve got to ensure that everything functions smoothly, not just for you, but for that child as well.
I think that when we talk about relationships or marriage, I think something that’s really important is we have to talk about whether or not children are being discussed or not. Because I think once you introduce the child aspect, I think the style or the type of relationship that you do is going to become way more important than whatever exists prior to that. I would agree, for instance, in terms of what Ben is saying, that there is probably going to be some structure that is ideal for the care and the raising of a child. I think that having a child gives you a much bigger buy-in to society because now, all of a sudden, you care about a lot of things that you might not have before because not only do you exist in society, you can’t just run. Now you’ve got a child that exists there and you’ve got to ensure that everything functions smoothly, not just for you, but for that child as well.
And, arguably, although we’re getting into weird places I guess in the world now, children are the primary conduit for where you transmit cultural values and everything. The one kind of weird thing that we are coming up against, that we have been coming up against now for some number of decades and we’ll continue to is as societies progress, seems like people are having less children. And I actually don’t know 100% what the answer is to that question.
Ben Shapiro
I do.
I do.
Destiny
I’m sure you do. I mean, an implementable answer that works that we know we can get everybody on board with. It seems like, for a large part of human history, having children, and it still is, having children is awesome, and children are cool and children are magical and miraculous and all of this, but you didn’t really have much competing for your attention to have a child. When you hit a certain age and you started working, especially if you’re a woman, I mean, childbirth is kind of the next step. And then having a family, raising your children, and then doing that was kind of the next step. Nowadays, especially with women being able to work, especially with women having access to birth control, there’s a lot available in the world that’s competing for the interest of people that could otherwise be having children such that we’ve almost flipped it, such that, as Ben brought up earlier, wealthy people tend to have less children than not wealthy people, or unless you’re part of particular religious communities that push childbirth a lot.
I’m sure you do. I mean, an implementable answer that works that we know we can get everybody on board with. It seems like, for a large part of human history, having children, and it still is, having children is awesome, and children are cool and children are magical and miraculous and all of this, but you didn’t really have much competing for your attention to have a child. When you hit a certain age and you started working, especially if you’re a woman, I mean, childbirth is kind of the next step. And then having a family, raising your children, and then doing that was kind of the next step. Nowadays, especially with women being able to work, especially with women having access to birth control, there’s a lot available in the world that’s competing for the interest of people that could otherwise be having children such that we’ve almost flipped it, such that, as Ben brought up earlier, wealthy people tend to have less children than not wealthy people, or unless you’re part of particular religious communities that push childbirth a lot.
I don’t know if I would say there exists a moral imperative on an individual to have children. I think that there’s a lot of interesting arguments down that path. I don’t know if we’re quite at the point yet where we need to say like, oh my God, we’re running out of people. We need to have more kids. I don’t think we’re quite there yet, but we are seeing weird demographic trends that are having big impacts on how countries are playing out. For instance, the fact that we have a disproportionately huge aging population that needs to be taken care of with medical expenses and everything, that vote in different ways than our younger population, and that when they die off, the way that society is going to look is going to be a lot different. I don’t actually have a, I’m not entirely sure what the future’s going to look like in terms of pushing people to have kids when every single industrialized country, as they become more industrialized, have fewer and fewer and fewer children.
Rapid fire questions
Lex Fridman
Rapid fire questions.
Rapid fire questions.
Ben Shapiro
My answer was go to church.
My answer was go to church.
Destiny
Religion, yeah. I figured.
Religion, yeah. I figured.
Lex Fridman
Well, we could talk about religion, but that’s not rapid fire at all. Let me ask, this is from the internet, does body count matter?
Well, we could talk about religion, but that’s not rapid fire at all. Let me ask, this is from the internet, does body count matter?
Destiny
Jesus Christ. You’re really bringing up the red pill stuff.
Jesus Christ. You’re really bringing up the red pill stuff.
Lex Fridman
Are you avoiding answering?
Are you avoiding answering?
Destiny
I mean, it’s totally, it depends on who you are. If you’re somebody that doesn’t care about it, it doesn’t. If you’re somebody that does care about it, yeah, it does, of course. Depends on the-
I mean, it’s totally, it depends on who you are. If you’re somebody that doesn’t care about it, it doesn’t. If you’re somebody that does care about it, yeah, it does, of course. Depends on the-
Ben Shapiro
The answer is yes.
The answer is yes.
Lex Fridman
Okay. Should porn be banned?
Okay. Should porn be banned?
Destiny
No.
No.
Ben Shapiro
If you could do it, yes. There is no benefit to pornography. It’s a waste of time and destructive to the human soul.
If you could do it, yes. There is no benefit to pornography. It’s a waste of time and destructive to the human soul.
Lex Fridman
I can’t believe I’m asking this question. Is OnlyFans empowering or destructive for women?
I can’t believe I’m asking this question. Is OnlyFans empowering or destructive for women?
Destiny
Jesus. These are rapid fire?
Jesus. These are rapid fire?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, just you can’t-
Yeah, just you can’t-
Destiny
I mean, it’s probably empowering for the ones that are making a lot of money off it. It probably feels disempowering for others that feel affected by the cultural norms set by women that do OnlyFans. There’s my rapid fire answer.
I mean, it’s probably empowering for the ones that are making a lot of money off it. It probably feels disempowering for others that feel affected by the cultural norms set by women that do OnlyFans. There’s my rapid fire answer.
Ben Shapiro
It’s destructive to even the ones who are making a lot of money because when you degrade yourself to being just a set of human body characteristics that other people jack off to, it’s bad for you and it’s bad for them.
It’s destructive to even the ones who are making a lot of money because when you degrade yourself to being just a set of human body characteristics that other people jack off to, it’s bad for you and it’s bad for them.
Lex Fridman
Is rap music…
Is rap music…
Ben Shapiro
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
Have you evolved on this or-
Have you evolved on this or-
Ben Shapiro
Have I evolved on this? So again, I’m going to go to what’s the definition of music? My original argument about rap was that music involves the following three elements. Rhythm, melody, harmony. Rap typically involves maybe one of those. There maybe, maybe a melody, maybe sometimes. So it depends on the kind of rap. With that said, I could be convinced on this issue. But, listen, I’m a classical violinist. I mean, it’s how I was raised. I listen to Beethoven and Brahms and Mozart in the car with my kids. So is it comparable, is it in the same category as Beethoven, Brahms, and Mozart? I have a very hard time sticking it in the same category as that.
Have I evolved on this? So again, I’m going to go to what’s the definition of music? My original argument about rap was that music involves the following three elements. Rhythm, melody, harmony. Rap typically involves maybe one of those. There maybe, maybe a melody, maybe sometimes. So it depends on the kind of rap. With that said, I could be convinced on this issue. But, listen, I’m a classical violinist. I mean, it’s how I was raised. I listen to Beethoven and Brahms and Mozart in the car with my kids. So is it comparable, is it in the same category as Beethoven, Brahms, and Mozart? I have a very hard time sticking it in the same category as that.
Lex Fridman
All right. You’re both world-class debaters, even public intellectuals, if I can say that.
All right. You’re both world-class debaters, even public intellectuals, if I can say that.
Destiny
Jesus.
Jesus.
Ben Shapiro
[inaudible 02:16:32] real hard here.
[inaudible 02:16:32] real hard here.
Lex Fridman
I know. You both care about the truth. What is your process of arriving at the truth?
I know. You both care about the truth. What is your process of arriving at the truth?
Destiny
I think it’s really important to, everybody will say that they’re objective and that they are nonpartisan. I think it’s really important to have mental safeguards for bad opinions. So, for instance, a couple of things that I’ll ask myself is for a particular debate that I’m having, can I argue convincingly both sides of the debate? If I can’t, I won’t bother having the debate because I realize that I’m probably too partisanly dug in if I can’t even represent an opposite argument here. Another question that you might ask yourself is like, well, what would it take to convince you out of a certain position? If you feel very strongly that Medicare for All is a good system by which to run the United States healthcare, and somebody says, well, what would it take you to convince you otherwise? If you can’t even fathom, well, what would it take to convince me otherwise, you’re probably too dug into a position.
I think it’s really important to, everybody will say that they’re objective and that they are nonpartisan. I think it’s really important to have mental safeguards for bad opinions. So, for instance, a couple of things that I’ll ask myself is for a particular debate that I’m having, can I argue convincingly both sides of the debate? If I can’t, I won’t bother having the debate because I realize that I’m probably too partisanly dug in if I can’t even represent an opposite argument here. Another question that you might ask yourself is like, well, what would it take to convince you out of a certain position? If you feel very strongly that Medicare for All is a good system by which to run the United States healthcare, and somebody says, well, what would it take you to convince you otherwise? If you can’t even fathom, well, what would it take to convince me otherwise, you’re probably too dug into a position.
So I think if you go through life saying, well, I try my best to be unbiased rather than saying, I try my best to be aware of my biases because the latter is more realistic and the former is literally impossible unless you’re a computer. So I think having actual mental practices that you engage in to try to counter some of the biases that you have is more important than trying to pretend that you’re free of all biases and then consuming all your media from one source.
Lex Fridman
Ben?
Ben?
Ben Shapiro
I mean, I agree with a lot of that. I think that the easiest practical guide is read a bunch of different things from a bunch of different sources, and where they cross is probably the set of facts, and then everything else is extrapolated opinion from different premises. That’s sort of the short story. So read the New York Times and Breitbart, and they’re going to disagree on a lot, but if the core of the story-
I mean, I agree with a lot of that. I think that the easiest practical guide is read a bunch of different things from a bunch of different sources, and where they cross is probably the set of facts, and then everything else is extrapolated opinion from different premises. That’s sort of the short story. So read the New York Times and Breitbart, and they’re going to disagree on a lot, but if the core of the story-
Lex Fridman
And the Daily Wire.
And the Daily Wire.
Ben Shapiro
Certainly read the Daily Wire. If you read the Daily Wire and you read the Washington Post and there’s a nexus of the same thing, then you can pretty well guarantee that, at least, if we’re all blind men feeling the elephant, at least, if we’re all feeling the trunk, we know that there’s a trunk there. You may not know what the elephant is.
Certainly read the Daily Wire. If you read the Daily Wire and you read the Washington Post and there’s a nexus of the same thing, then you can pretty well guarantee that, at least, if we’re all blind men feeling the elephant, at least, if we’re all feeling the trunk, we know that there’s a trunk there. You may not know what the elephant is.
Lex Fridman
And if you’re feeling frisky, then watch Destiny as well.
And if you’re feeling frisky, then watch Destiny as well.
Destiny
Thanks.
Thanks.
Lex Fridman
You’ve talked about having a conversation, debating Ben for a long time. What is your favorite thing about Ben Shapiro?
You’ve talked about having a conversation, debating Ben for a long time. What is your favorite thing about Ben Shapiro?
Destiny
My favorite thing about Ben Shapiro is, at least when we’re in election season, he’s very critical of his own party. I appreciate that. I feel like Ben generally tries to adhere more to the fact-based arguments than other conservatives that I listen to, which is something that I appreciate because it’s more fun to fight on the factual grounds of discussing things like foreign policy or whatever, rather than people that only inhabit the idealistic or philosophical grounds because they don’t want to learn about any of the facts. So I appreciate that.
My favorite thing about Ben Shapiro is, at least when we’re in election season, he’s very critical of his own party. I appreciate that. I feel like Ben generally tries to adhere more to the fact-based arguments than other conservatives that I listen to, which is something that I appreciate because it’s more fun to fight on the factual grounds of discussing things like foreign policy or whatever, rather than people that only inhabit the idealistic or philosophical grounds because they don’t want to learn about any of the facts. So I appreciate that.
Lex Fridman
Ben, you’ve gotten a chance to talk to Destiny now. What do you like about the guy?
Ben, you’ve gotten a chance to talk to Destiny now. What do you like about the guy?
Ben Shapiro
A lot of the same sorts of things, but it’s really fun to see how you do your process. That is a cool thing. That is a cool thing. And it’s a gift to the audience because, honestly, doing what we do, so much of what we do is sitting and reading and being behind closed doors and educating yourself and talking with people. But getting to watch you do it in real time is a really cool window into how people think and how people learn. So that’s a really neat thing.
A lot of the same sorts of things, but it’s really fun to see how you do your process. That is a cool thing. That is a cool thing. And it’s a gift to the audience because, honestly, doing what we do, so much of what we do is sitting and reading and being behind closed doors and educating yourself and talking with people. But getting to watch you do it in real time is a really cool window into how people think and how people learn. So that’s a really neat thing.
Lex Fridman
Well, gentlemen, this was incredible. It’s an honor. Thank you for doing this today.
Well, gentlemen, this was incredible. It’s an honor. Thank you for doing this today.
Ben Shapiro
Thanks a lot.
Thanks a lot.
Destiny
Thanks for having me.
Thanks for having me.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this debate between Ben Shapiro and Destiny. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Aristotle. The basis of a democratic state is liberty. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this debate between Ben Shapiro and Destiny. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Aristotle. The basis of a democratic state is liberty. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Matthew Cox: FBI Most Wanted Con Man – $55 Million in Bank Fraud | Lex Fridman Podcast #409
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #409 with Matthew Cox.
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What was the first crime you committed?
So the average person, or “I’m going to put down this much money,” but you’re going to borrow that money from the seller. Okay, well then they start asking for bank statements. “Where did the money come from? How long has it been in your bank?” You can’t even have it put in your bank for a day, get a letter. It’s got to have been there for 90 days or 60 days, depending on the bank. And so there’s all these ways… For the average person, it’s very difficult to commit fraud. The average guy that works at Walmart and makes $60,000 a year, and he’s been there for five years and he saved his deposit, that’s really the guy that those transactions are set up for. To borrow a mortgage from Bank of America, that’s the guy they’re looking for.
They’re saying, “How long have you been on their job?” They care about two years, and “How long have you been at your residency?” They’re looking for two years. Now, you could be at three places in two years. That’s fine. As long as you consistently paid for two years. Well, she had been in an apartment complex, but she’d been 30 days late. Now she caught it up, but she was late. The bank doesn’t want to lend you money if you’ve been 30 days late. So I was a broker and I whited out the 30-day late. I just got rid of it. And my manager is the person that told me to do it. She said, “It’ll be fine.” And she was right, it was.
You got borrowers with horrific job history. They don’t have enough of the down payment. Maybe they have the down payment, but they don’t have the closing costs. So you have to go to the real estate agent and say, “Listen, I need you to raise the purchase price and have the seller pay the closing costs,” which is legal to a degree, but that’s not how they wrote up the contract. So now you’re having to get them to rewrite the contract or there’s little things you’re trying to do. And the more deals you get done, and the more you deal with certain real estate agents, the more you start to realize that they’re… You know which ones are completely above board and which ones are willing to twist the rules.
I kick back. I’m terrified a little bit, worried about it. Sure enough, it closes. Four or five days later, they call me, “He’s ready to close.” A week later, we close. I get a check. Next guy that comes in… I mean, I got very, very quickly… I was concerned, “Do you have a house? Do you have a deal? Is it ready? I can get you done.” Now, if you were in bankruptcy or something, there’s some things you just… You’d pull their credit and you just couldn’t help them. If they had a 550 credit score or something and no job. I mean, it had to be within reason, but very quickly it was changing W-2s, changing pay stubs, changing appraisals, fixing, like I said, verifications of rent. So it evolved very quickly for me.
And the truth is, and this is a horrible thing to say, because the first time I ever heard somebody say this, I remember thinking, “Oh, that’s a horrible thing to say.” Some people should not own a house. They shouldn’t be allowed to borrow. They’re not in a position financially. And there were many occasions where I put someone in a house that they 100% swore they could afford. I was helping them. I told myself I was helping them, and a year and a half later, they’re going into foreclosure. Their stuff’s on the corner, they don’t know where to go. And the truth is that I’m not smarter than the actuaries that came up with those underwriting guidelines.
Well, what I realized through the course of… Because eventually I ended up leaving that one company and I opened my own mortgage company. When I opened that mortgage company, I was on the inside. Does that make sense? I wasn’t just a broker that was sitting out with everybody else and would periodically come in and ask questions or would call underwriting, but I really didn’t understand what was happening and exactly what the underwriting guidelines were. Now, I was actually talking to the underwriters and you’re talking to the owners of the lending institutions and the banks, and you’re talking to all of the account executives.
And now, it wasn’t just Eagle Lending I was talking to, there were 40 different account executives coming in on a weekly basis trying to get us to sign up with their lender. And they’re on the inside coming in, showing you programs and saying, “Look, if your borrower is self-employed, we don’t ask for this or this, we just ask for them to say to say they’re self- employed.” Liar loans. You’ve heard the term liar loans?
So I get the phone call from the owner of a bank or a lending institute, a lender, and that lender says, “Hey, Matt, we got a problem.” I’m like, “What’s up?” He’s like, “Listen, we caught a fake W-2.” I’m like, “What do you mean?” “Yeah, your broker so-and-so sent us a file and this person had… There’s two fake W-2s and we’re assuming the pay stubs are fake.” And I’m like, “Are you serious? How did you even catch that?” And they go, “Oh, well, here’s what we did. We checked with sunbiz.gov,” which is the Secretary of State’s website that registers corporations. “And we checked, and the tax ID number didn’t match.” And now I know every W-2 has to have a matching tax ID number for whatever corporation issued it.
I’m really shocked he even noticed it. I probably might not have even caught it, but they were different. And I went, “Really?” And he goes, “Yeah,” he said, “She just brought them in. She’s here.” And I was like, “Oh, bring her in here.” So she came in, sat down, I said, “Listen, here’s what we just found.” And she was like, “Oh, okay. You know what? I don’t want the loan. I just… I go, “No, no, no, no, no.” I said, “Listen, you’re getting a loan. You got a 750 credit score. I don’t care what we have to do. We’re getting you the loan. I just want to know what’s going on. How did you get 750 credit scores under this Social Security number when clearly this is your real Social Security number? You’ve been working for this company for 10 years, and your credit profile says it’s only three years old. And I was like, “What happened?”
And what she told me she did was she went through a divorce. She had been married for 10 years, used her husband’s… I mean, his surname for 10 years. So she has no credit under her maiden name. But when they got divorced, she switched to her maiden name because when she tried to get anything in her husband’s surname, it was denied, bad credit. So he had bad credit. Their credit went bad. So she switched to her name and a friend told her if she needed to get her electric or anything turned on, she could use her name and use her daughter’s or son’s Social Security number, which was like a four-year-old kid. So she used that and it went through, she had to put a deposit down, but it went through at least, it wasn’t denied. So that went through.
Then she went and she applied for an apartment with that. Sure enough, it went through. She had no credit, but they said, you don’t have bad credit. So she said once she moved into the apartment, she then started getting these pre-approved credit cards. So she goes, “But I knew I had applied there using my son’s Social Security number,” let’s say. So she started filling those out, and sure enough, she got a credit card and then she got two, and then she got a pre-approval from Ford Motor Credit. She went and got herself a new car, got approved. She’d been making the payments ever since. She has a 750 credit score. She thought she’d try her hand at buying a house in his Social Security number, and we caught it and she got a house in that name. We closed it. I just was like, “Wow, this is great.”
And sure enough, it didn’t say no file found. It just said that there had been two inquiries applying for credit cards. So I was like, “Wow, that’s a credit profile.” So that turns into me calling Social Security and trying to get them to issue me Social Security numbers to adults that had never had a Social Security number issued to them. I need to get a Social Security number to give me a clean Social Security number. But I called up, and of course, I’m a novice, I don’t really know what I’m doing. So I call up and I say, “Hey, yeah, I never had a Social Security number issued.” And they were like, “How old are you?” And I was like, “I’m 31 years old.” And they were, “Yeah, that’s not possible. Do you have a driver’s license?” “Yeah.” “You have a bank account?” “Yeah.” “You have a Social Security number. Bring your driver’s license in and we’ll pull it up.” Okay, well, that’s not going to happen.
Hang up, call back. “Hi, my son is seven years old or three years old, and he never had a Social Security number issued.” “Oh, okay. Was he born in a hospital?” “Yes.” “Well, he has one. He has one. Go ahead and get your son, come in here…” No, I’m not doing that. Hang up, call back. So I called back probably 10 times, and eventually someone said… I kept altering it, kept altering what I was saying until I got to the point where I was saying, “My son was born with a midwife, not in the hospital. And the pediatrician told us that we need to get Social Security to issue a Social Security number.”
And they would say, “Well, he should have issued it. But that does happen sometimes. So bring your son in and you can fill out the paperwork. We’ll have one issued. First, we’ll check to see if he never had one issued. And if he hasn’t, we’ll issue one.” And so then it turned into, “My son is out of the country and I need this.” And then that turned into, “Oh, I’m sorry. Well, how old is he?” I was like, “He’s three.” And they go, “Well, I’m sorry if he’s over the age of 12 months old, he has to come in.” Hang up the phone, call back. “My son is 10 months old, he’s out of the country, born with a midwife, never had a Social Security number.” And then they go, “Oh, okay, that’s fine. Just get his birth certificate and his shot record and you can come in, fill out the paperwork, we’ll issue you a Social Security number.”
And that’s what I did. So I figured out how to create a birth certificate. I ordered the security paper where you make a copy. It says, “Void if copied.” I ordered had to order a bunch of that, and I went online and figured out how to make a fake birth certificate. It was great too, because the county actually, they give you a blank form and then they actually show you what it looks like filled out, like a handwritten one filled out. So I knew if he was born this day, he got these shots. Two months later, he got these shots. Six months later he got these shots. So I just filled it out. I even had to order a seal. So you have to have a seal that says “Hillsborough County Vital Statistics” or “Richland County Vital Statistics” or something. And I couldn’t get anybody to make that.
So I changed it to Richland County Office of Virtual Records. And then I took 220 grit sandpaper and hit it over and over and over again to wear it down. And then I did the embossment on the corner and I printed it on the security paper, embossed it. Nobody looks at those things. You could see Richland County, you could kind of see that. And really, they just grab it and they go like this. This is what you realize after you… When I started getting driver’s licenses issued by the state DMV, I figured out eventually it was easier to just go into the DMV and have them give me a driver’s license than actually make one. But you notice they would just grab the thing, they’d feel the form and go, “Okay,” they don’t even look at it, which is upsetting if you put as much work into these documents as I am for them to go, “Okay. Yeah, that’s good. Sit over there.” I felt like going like, “Hey, bro, take a look at this. This is artwork.”
They don’t even say secure. They just say, ” This credit card is $500. It was issued by Bank of America. This one was issued by Capital One, this one…” So I’ve got three of them, but I had no credit scores. So at that point, I kind of kicked back and waited and I just kept making payments. And I remember thinking to myself, “I’ll bet you that the credit bureaus don’t generate credit scores for at least a year.” And I was like, “God, this is going to be a year long process.” And while that was happening, I was starting other ones because I figured at least in a year I’ll have a bunch of these… We call them phantom borrowers, but now they call them synthetic identities. So at least I would have these synthetic identities and maybe I could do something with them. But what happened was at six months, I went and I randomly pulled the person’s credit, and he had 705 credit scores, 705, 701, 695. I was like, “Oh, my God.” You only needed a 620 to get a 95% loan from the bank. So-
Maybe you could then get another 20 or 30,000 in regular credit cards. 10,000 here, 8,000, 5,000, and then you go to the lower department store cards and you go to Home Depot, you get 1,000, you get 500. So it ends up being maybe you can get 50, 60,000, maybe if you really good, you could get up to 80 or 100,000 in credit cards and personal loans if you really knew what you were doing. But-
There’s an area of Tampa called Ybor City. So I was going to start flipping houses in Ybor City. I thought, “Okay, I can buy these houses for,” you could buy a really crappy house at that time for 50, $60,000, let’s say 50. And then you could put $25,000 into it in renovations. You could renovate it for 25 and maybe you could get an appraisal for 100. So I thought what I could do is, “I can buy these houses, renovate them and sell them to regular people.”
But I also had been working on the synthetic identities. And then I thought, “well, or I could just sell them to synthetic identities.” And then I wouldn’t have to dump 25,000 into it, right? And these guys are perfect. They have perfect credit. I can provide W-2s and pay stubs because by this point I’m manufacturing businesses. So I’ve incorporated businesses, I’ve got websites for the businesses, W-2s, pay stubs, so these guys look perfect.
So I figure I’ll buy these properties for 50,000, sell it to these guys for 100. Maybe I’ll pocket 40 or 50,000. I don’t really have to do anything. But that seemed shortsighted. So I thought, “What would be even better is that if I did a little bit of renovations and then I sold it for much higher.” Maybe I put 10,000 clean up the outside of it, because these guys don’t care what the inside of the property looks like. They don’t exist.
“But how am I going to get an appraisal for $100,000?” Well, you know how appraisals work? Okay, so the bank sends an appraiser out, or at that time you could provide an appraisal. They can review it. So they’ll do what’s called a desktop review. They review it on the computer and they never go out to the property or they send someone out. They call that, it’s a field review. They send someone out and they just look at the house. They don’t go in it though. So I have to clean up the outside of the house.
But the problem is if you’re trying to sell that house for let’s say 200,000, the other houses, they have to pick three comparable sales in the area that are also going to support a $200,000 sales price.
Well, there’s no other house that’s selling for 200,000 near this house. So I thought, “If I want to get these things appraised for 200, 250,000, I have to have comparable sales and that appraisal is going to be reviewed.” So what I did was I went out and I bought this house for 50,000 and I recorded the sale at 200,000.
So when you buy a house for $100,000, you pay $700 in dock stamps. But if you pay an extra 700 bucks, the sale shows up for 200,000. I’m buying these things for 50, so I’m paying $350 and I’m just paying an extra $1,050. So it ends up being $1,400, but the sale shows up at 200,000 on a house. That’s a crack house I bought for $50,000.
Now I go, I trim the trees, we mow the yard, we clean up the porch, we put the porch rail on maybe, we paint it real nice. We black out all the windows. You can’t see inside, but from the curb it looks great. I get an appraisal. So I do that with that house. I do that with another house all within a mile. So I buy four houses knowing there’s a subject and three comparables for all of them.
So the first thing I did is I bought four houses for 50,000, 60,000, 40,000 and I recorded the values at 210, 200, 190. So I get an appraiser to come out there. He appraises it. Of course, he says, “It’s horrible,” but there’s comparables here. Now, of course it is in bad shape, and he says, “It’s in bad shape,” but I go ahead and I correct all that. So I correct it.
So now if you review the appraisal and you’re in California, or even if the appraiser comes to the house and looks at it from the street, it looks fine. But the truth is, I’ve got $60,000 into this property and you’re appraising it for 200,000. So the bank, they’re not going to lend 200, but they’ll lend one 190. So the bank is ready to lend this synthetic borrower $ 190,000 on a house that I have 60,000 in. So I schedule a closing and we close on the house and I walk away with $60,000.
And the thing is, the problem was is by the time I got to this point, I knew so many people in the industry, nobody had to really at that point show up. Although I’ve had people show up for the synthetic identities and sign for them. Almost all the closings, nobody ever showed up.
I just showed up and said to the title agency and said, “Hey, my borrower, he’s at work right now. He can’t make it. Can I just take the file and I’ll have him sign all the documents at his work and I’ll bring them back. He’s like an hour and a half away from here. I’ll be back in two or three hours.” And they’re like, “Oh, wow, man, Matt, thank you so much”. And they would give it to me and I’d go sit in the parking lot and I’d sign all the documents and I’d wait an hour or two and I’d come back in and say, “Here you go.”
“Hey, I’ll print up the docs and I’ll have them go sign it.” “Great. Wow, thank you.” Assuming they didn’t already know about it, and almost everybody involved in this by the time I was done, was involved. There was probably 15 or 20 people that all knew what was going on.
Then of course, then I go and I get personal loans from several banks. I get credit cards. I run up all of his credit cards. By this point, I’ve got 10, $20,000 worth of credit cards in the guy’s name. So the guys are all worth a million, a million and change. Well, once I stop paying, you start getting letters from the collection companies, right? From the banks, and then they sell them off. So after about three months, you’re getting tons of letters.
And what I would do is I would take my borrower’s name, I would go online and I would find, or I’d go in the newspaper and I would find an article about, let’s say a 12 car pile up. So there’s a huge accident on I-4. It’s very dangerous. So there’s a 12 car pile up, and someone in the accident was life flighted to Tampa General Hospital.
I would cut and paste that article and I would just insert my borrower’s name into the article saying that, “Brandon Green was life flighted to Tampa General Hospital. He’s currently in critical condition.” I would then print that article out on newsprint. I’d then make a copy of it. Cut it up, make a copy of the newsprint, highlight his name, and I would write a letter from Brandon Green’s fictional sister to the collection companies saying, “Several months ago, my brother was in a horrible car accident. He is currently…”
They’ve got the article, they have the highlighted name. He clearly was in this accident. “He is currently in a coma, and the doctors say, ‘Even if he wakes up from the coma, he will never work again.’ So you might as well just foreclose. Stop writing us letters and take the houses back.” And that’s all they’re looking for, is a reason.
At this point, even if they look into Brandon Green, they can’t figure out if he’s a real person or not because he’s got a social security number and everything went bad at the same time. He’s got multiple rental properties or his primary residence, all of his credit cards went bad, everything went bad. We have an excuse. We have a letter. That happens. People get divorced, they lose their job, they get in accidents. It’s reasonable.
I thought, “Well, like the newspaper, or do I claim bankruptcy?” And I’ve done that. I’ve gone and got the bankruptcy forms. You can go to the bankruptcy court and they’ll give you forms to mail to all of your creditors. You mail them and they stop contacting you. They wait to be located or notified by the bankruptcy court. But my fear there is, “Nobody’s ever going to notify them. I’m not going through bankruptcy for one of these guys.”
So it was like, “This is a better bet than just writing a letter saying, ‘I’m going through a divorce. My wife’s keeping those houses. That’s her problem.'” There’s lots of things you could do, but to me this was, “How do you shut it down without him dying? How do you shut that down?” This is how you shut it down. He’s in a coma. He’ll never work again. He was in a car accident. Here’s the proof. He can’t even write you. I’m his sister. I wrote you the letter.
And so the bank would foreclose on that property. They’d take it back. They’d put it back on the MLS. They put it back on the MLS for 200,000. It wouldn’t sell. Then they’d drop it to 150. It wouldn’t sell. Then they’d drop it to 125, 130. It wouldn’t sell. They’d drop it to 90 and somebody would buy it for 90. It wasn’t worth 90. But by that point, we’d done so many houses at that point the whole area shot up.
The FBI said we did 109 houses. I don’t think that’s true. But-
I started getting just more and more creative. Like I said, every time I would get away with something you become emboldened by it. It’s like, “Nice.” ” Hey, the underwriter’s looking for this and looking for this.” And you sit there and go, “Man. What am I going to do? You know what we could do? We could create our own bank.” “What?” “Yeah. Here’s we’re going to do. We’re going to go on…” How do they know if this bank exists? These people are in California, they’re in New York. They don’t know.
“So what we’re going to do is we’re going to go online,” and keep mind, this is 2000, 2001. The internet’s in its infancy still, right? I remember GoDaddy, I think had just come up with a site where you could build your own website. How cool is that? So I go online with a buddy of mine, and we create something called the Bank of Ybor. We cut and pasted things that we liked from other banks. We got a 1-800 number you could call, or a 186 number, whatever it was, and you could call it, and it would go to a voicemail.
So we set up this bank, and then I ended up making bank statements, which by this point, I already had been making bank statements to prove someone has their down payment. Because a lot of times people, they have good enough credit to borrow 95% or 90%, but they don’t have their down payment. So we’d raise the purchase price high enough to cover their five or 10% down payment.
We would bring their down payment for them, or we’d have the owner of the house bring the down payment for them. Then we would have a check cut out of the clothing statement to a construction company that I owned, and we get our money back. So they get into the house for 100% financing or 110%. Some of them turned into one 130. We want to pay off their car, give them an incentive to sign. They still don’t have the money to buy it. So we are doing all kinds of insane things.
Well, at some point, remember Gretchen Zayas, my old manager?
So if I needed somebody to verify rent or verify somebody’s rental history or employment, she had a cell phone, she would answer that sort of thing for me. Well, what ends up happening is she gets in trouble. She starts doing fraudulent loans for some guys, and these guys are doing what’s called a cashback scam. So they’re getting a half a million dollar loan on a house that’s worth $300,000. So they’re buying the house for whatever, 600,000. It’s really only worth 300, 350.
But she happened to be in an area where she could get the appraisal jacked up. So they buy the house, they get two, $300,000 back, and it’s a straw man’s scam, right? It’s a cash back straw man’s scam. So this is a real person that’s buying the house. He’s got perfect credit, but he’s willing to ruin his credit to get a couple 100,000 in his pocket. So he never has any intentions. So it’s not a synthetic identity. It’s not a stolen identity. It’s a straw man. He’s not a fake person, but he’s just a straw man. He’s a stand in.
So he stands in, he signs the paperwork, he buys the house. They end up getting two, 300,000. Well, this guy buys like five houses, so it’s two, $3 million. They’ve lost six, $700,000 and these guys never even make the first payment. They just let them go into foreclosure. So the bank immediately investigates and realizes this is fraud.
So the FBI comes in, they grab Pete and Gretchen. She has to hire an attorney, of course, and she doesn’t get thrown in jail or anything. They just come to their office and they tell them they’re investigating them. They know what’s going on and they’re like, “Well, look, we want to talk to you. You’re going to be indicted.” “Okay.”
So she comes to me. Well, actually Pete came to me and said, “Look, Matt, can you refinance our house and get us 75,000 out to pay our attorney?” I said, “No problem.” Gretchen gives me W-2s, pay stubs. The whole thing’s fake. I refinance. I get a second mortgage on her house. $75,000, they pay their attorney.
Their attorney immediately says, “You need to wear a wire on this guy. He just got you $75,000. I don’t know how you got $75,000. The attorney knows something’s wrong because the attorney’s like, “Your whole mortgage company was just shut down. There’s no way you could borrow $75,000.” So he is like, “This guy’s doing fraudulent stuff.” And she says, “Yes, of course he is.” And he says, “You need to work with the FBI, wear a wire against this guy.”
So she calls me one day and says, “Listen, I got to talk to you. The FBI is asking questions about you.” And I go, “What?” And she goes, “Yeah.” I was like, “Meet me at the pizza place down the street. So don’t come into my office,” because everybody knows she’s been indicted. Everybody in her office quit. When the FBI shows up and gives you a business card and announces they’re the FBI, everybody quits. So I said, “Don’t come here.” Because they already know they’re already concerned.
So I go and I meet her and Pete, and we sit down at a restaurant, a little pizzeria. I sit down and she starts telling me that the FBI is asking questions about me. And I’m like, “Well, what are you talking about? What are they asking?” And she goes, “Look, they came in, they took all our files.” And I was like, “I didn’t know any of this.” I’m like, ” When did this happen?” She’s like, “A couple of weeks ago and they have some of your files.”
Because I had closed several loans for my wife at the time. We were buying rental properties. My wife didn’t have a job. So it’s all fraud. But I could not close those loans at my mortgage company because I own the property. So I’m selling those properties. I bought properties, renovated them, and sold them to my wife to get around something called seasoning.
Seasoning says you have to wait six months to a year to refinance at the market value. Otherwise, if you want to refinance, that’s fine, but you have to refinance at the price you purchased the property at. But I bought these properties for 80 or 100,000, renovated them, sold them for two, 300,000 to my wife, who didn’t even get a big mortgage. We were just trying to get around a guideline. But my wife was not working, and I provided W-2s and pay stubs.
So when she says all this, she says, “They’re looking at the loans you gave me, at your wife’s loans.” And I went, “Oh my God.” I said, “Well, you didn’t tell them that the W-2s were fake, did you? You didn’t tell them the pay stubs were fake, did you? You didn’t tell them that the down payments were? You didn’t tell them that we were married, did you?” I mean, just absolutely buried myself.
And as I’m telling her this, I kind of caught myself and I went, “Okay, wait, wait, wait a minute. Look. Okay, here’s what you’re going to tell them. You’re going to tell them you never met her. She called on the phone.” I start trying to devise a plan that will answer their questions without getting my wife in trouble or them in trouble. And if nobody cooperates, the whole thing should shut down. It doesn’t go anywhere. There’s nowhere for them to go if everybody just kind of stonewalls them.
So as I’m saying all this, Gretchen says, “Matt, we can’t lie to the FBI.” And I go, “What are you are you talking about? You’re already lying to the FBI. I mean, you’ve been lying to the FBI. I mean, I just refinanced your house.” And before I can really say anything, Pete jumps up, her husband stands up, and he says, “We’ve never lied to the FBI. We may not have told them everything, but we’ve never lied.” And I thought, “Who are you talking to?”
I know that’s not true. So you’re not saying that for my benefit. So I kind of look at them and I’m like, “What?” And I remember looking down, and this may mean nothing, but both of their cell phones were right next to me, right? And I remember they were probably just wearing wires. But I just remember thinking, “Those cell phones are microphones.”
They probably weren’t. But I remember thinking, “Oh, wow.” And I looked at her and I went, “Wow.” And I said, “Well, I hope you’re going to get something for this.” She immediately starts crying and she says, “Matt, I’m sorry. I have a kid. I can’t go to jail.”
She’s standing there. I was like, “Close the door. Get out and close it.” She’s like. So I get on the phone. He asked me if I’ll come down. I said, “Yeah, absolutely. Let’s schedule it for next Tuesday.” I put it off four or five days. I go to my brother-in-law immediately, who’s a lawyer. And he says, “Oh, yeah.” I don’t really tell him exactly what’s going on, but I tell him, “This is what’s happening kind of and I may be in trouble. I need a federal defense attorney.”
I don’t even know what a federal defense, I don’t even know the difference. But he said, “You need a federal defense attorney. It’s the FBI.” So we meet a couple lawyers. I end up getting a lawyer. I give him 75 grand. Initially, he had me convinced I was probably going to go to jail for a few years, but really that’s what they kind of do to justify you giving them $75,000.
Because I bought the house with a hard money loan and then I renovated it with my own cash. And when I sold it, it appraised at 250,000. My ex-wife borrowed 180. So there’s plenty of equity. If the whole thing had gone into foreclosure, they still would’ve got their money back. And to be honest, by the time all of this happened, there was only three properties. It was five, but we’d already sold a few. At this point, we’d just sold another two. There’s like one or two properties left.
So at that moment, we were selling them. So I was like, “No,” I kind of argue with him. But then he wanted 75 grand. I gave him 75 grand. And then he comes back and he says, “Good news. There was no potential fraud. So I can get you three years.” Now here’s the thing, here’s what I always kind of look back at. When I first went into his office, he said, “Listen, you haven’t been indicted yet. I spoke with the FBI, I spoke with the US attorney, they believe, and they’ve been told…”
He said, “Look, they didn’t tell me exactly what they have, but they said what the evidence that they have on you based on two confidential informants, that you cannot go to trial.” And I was like, “Right.” of course I knew that one. And I was like, “Okay.” He said, “But you haven’t been indicted yet and they are fairly certain that you’re running a mill, right? A fraud mill over there, and that you guys are churning out fraudulent loans.”
“Now they can’t come and raid your office and do anything about it yet because so far they only have you. But here’s what I’m saying,” he said, “I can keep you from being indicted. It’s called a pretrial intervention where we go in and what we’ll do is you go in, talk to the FBI, you go grab a bunch of your mortgage broker’s most egregious files. Grab them, bring those files to the FBI. Go work with the FBI, they will indict them and you will not be indicted.”
And I said, which I kick myself to this day. I said, “Absolutely not. I’m not going to snitch on them. I’m not going to cooperate. I’m not going to,” I’d seen the Godfather, you’re not supposed to cooperate. You’re supposed to be loyal. “I’m not going to do any of that.” And so I say all of this where looking back, if I could go back in time, I would’ve gone into our weekly meeting with a dolly and I would’ve walked in front of everybody and scooped up two or three of the file cabinets and put them in the back of a truck…
So if you’re looking at 30 years, and especially after going to prison, you go to prison and it’s like this guy’s a standup guy over here, he got 30 years. He could have cooperated against all of his co-defendants but he didn’t. Nobody comes to see him. His wife divorced him. His kids ended up in foster care. His friends are cleaning out his house. Nobody puts money on his books. Nobody comes to see him. Nobody answers his phone. Nothing. He took 30 years. Most of those guys turned around. They end up getting indicted for other things. Years later, they cooperate. And the best thing this guy’s got going for him is that he can walk around and say, well, he’s a stand-up guy. That guy’s going to the same halfway house as me. He’s going to do 30 years where I’m going to do 10.
So there’s guys, tons of them that cooperate. If 80-90% of defendants cooperate, you start doing the math. And if you ask 10 guys in prison, all of them say, “I didn’t cooperate. I didn’t cooperate. I didn’t cooperate.” Okay. Well, you ask a hundred. “I didn’t cooperate.” Nobody’s going to say, “I cooperated.”
So for you to sit there and say, “Hey, I’m going to act like a scumbag, but now I got caught or you got caught and I don’t want you to tell on me.” Well, you’re a guy that robs banks. You stick guns in people’s faces. You kidnap people, you torture people. You sell drugs. You’re not a moral, ethical person, but you want everybody else to hold up to some ethical code while you’re robbing grandma. That’s not right. So I get the whole omerta code, and there was a time when I was delusional enough to believe that. But after going through it, no. And after going through it multiple times, no.
So I think it morphs into the creativity, in part, for me. And two, it was a chance for me to prove to everybody how smart I was. It was done out of desperation initially, and then it just turned into pure narcissistic arrogance. “Look at me, look at how I can do things that nobody else can do. Look how smart I am. I just walked into Bank of America, handed them seven documents that were all fraudulent and they cut me a check for $250,000. Like, wow, I’m amazing. And guess what? They’re never going to get their check. And they won’t even know where to start to try and find the person because they’re looking for a phantom.”
And you feel great. I felt great. I felt like James Bond. I felt like 007. It was amazing. And it feeded my need to feel important, even if that was a lie, because all that success was just a lie.
But I put people in a position where I damaged the title to their house and they had to go get a lawyer to fix that and so they had to go pay a lawyer $10,000. So I absolutely caused that person … To me, it’s you’re a victim and I owe you that money. And it was a shitty thing to do because, even at the time, I was like, “Oh, they’ll make a couple of phone calls, it’ll be fine.” It wasn’t fine. And if I had really put any thought into it at all, I would’ve known it’s going to going to really affect these people. And those people had done nothing wrong with the exception of trusting me. They rented me their house or they owner financed their house. They made the mistake of bumping into me and now they owe $10,000, $20,000 and I’m sure a ton of anguish.
And I don’t know what to do. I could have … You look back and it’s like I could have claimed bankruptcy. I could have moved into my parents’ spare room, something like that, because I lost everything in my divorce. I had huge child support payment. Not that that has anything to do with my ex-wife. I absolutely signed up for that. I wanted to pay that but it was a chunk of change. So we’re talking about a couple thousand dollars a month for child support. She got all of the apartments that we had. We had about a million, million and a half dollars’ worth of apartments, which isn’t a lot now, but that’s probably five or six million dollars now. So she got all the apartments, so she got everything. So now I’m sitting here/ I can’t be a mortgage broker. I can get my $9,000, but I have to help this guy run this company, train people, do that sort of thing.
So what I decided to do was I was going to start flipping houses.
So when I graduated college, I remember, with the degree in Fine Arts, he said, “The best thing you could do with that is maybe you could draw caricatures at Disney World.” You know what I’m saying? Which wasn’t a compliment. It wasn’t like, “Hey, you could draw” … And then I turned around and I tried to go to work for State Farm Insurance which is who he worked for. He worked for them for 40 something years, and I failed the aptitude test. So then I went and worked for another insurance company and I was an insurance adjuster, but I couldn’t keep up with the workload. Then I end up working construction. I’m still barely paying my bills. That’s basically where my dad felt like that’s … He was polite to me. We were cordial. But yeah, I think he felt he deserved a better kid.
So when the FBI comes in and they indict me, and I take the three years’ probation, probably the worst thing in the world other than going to prison would’ve been just having to just sell everything and go move in and start over and sell used cars. Not that there’s anything wrong with selling used cars, but I just felt like I just didn’t want to disappoint him any more than I already had. So I thought, “I’m going to flip houses and then I’ll start maybe a development company. So I’ll buy some vacant lots and all this and that.” The problem is these houses I’m buying for 50,000, if I fix them up and sell them, maybe I make $20,000, $25,000. And then you got to find a qualified borrower. It’s very hard to find a qualified borrower that wants to live in Ybor City back then.
I still think it’s rough but those same houses are going for three and 400,000. So I’m buying houses. I got to get qualified borrowers. I do all the renovations. It’s a nightmare. Looking back, it’s like, “Well, then you got to bite the bullet. It’s just what you have to do.” I didn’t want to do that. I didn’t want to do it. Whether it was laziness or, I don’t know, I just thought, “I’m good at this. I’m going to run. I’m just going to start running a scam. I’m going to figure out how to drive the prices up, buy the houses for 50, record them at 200,000, and then have these synthetic identities, buy all the properties, refinance them, pull out the cash, make six months’ worth of payments, let them all go into foreclosure.” And that really, really started working well, very well.
I had one time where I had a guy, it was James Red, the synthetic identity was James Red and he had bought two or three houses, and there was somebody at the office who was friends of somebody who knew the title company where we were closing the loans, and he called her, her name was Mary, and said, “Mary, this guy, James Red, like Cox is doing something shady. James Red doesn’t even exist.” She goes and looks at her last couple files and she realizes, of course obviously, this guy never showed up. She remembers Cox picked up the files, and he’s saying he doesn’t exist. So she freaks out. She calls the mortgage broker. Mortgage broker calls me, mortgage broker calls me up and says, “Listen, Mary said she’s not closing the next loan unless James Red shows up.” And I went, “Wow, that’s a tough one.”
And she’s like, “Okay, so what do you want to do? Do you want to go to another title company?” We’re supposed to close in three days, two, three days. I said, “Well, I mean he’s going to have to show up then. I’ll figure it out. Give me a couple of days. Let me figure this out.” And she’s like, “Okay, well, I don’t know how that’s going to happen. He didn’t exist.” Keep in mind at this point I don’t need IDs. I don’t need a real ID. I figured out how to make a real ID. I could make one. I could take sandpaper and sand off the information on a regular ID, and then I would print the corrected information in reverse on a piece of transparency, and I would glue it over there and you could still see the holograms and stuff. It actually worked pretty good. It’s not going to pass mustard with a cop but somebody at the bank like I was able to go in and I would open a bank account with it.
Well, so one of the things I had done when I was closing these loans was I would go online and you have to pick a photo of somebody to put on the driver’s license. So I’m not making a fake ID for all these guys because I don’t need a fake ID for all these guys, not with my picture on it, but I need a copy of an ID, but I need a picture. Where do I get the picture? So I go to Hillsborough County’s arrest website, and I would find people that I knew that had been arrested. So I found a guy named Eric Tamargo who had been arrested. He had, I don’t know what it was, a DUI or domestic violence. I forget what it was but there was a picture of him.
So I print out the picture, I cut it up, I paste it onto a driver’s license, and I make a copy of it for James Red. That’s what I’ve been giving the title people. When I would close, I’d sign all the documents and I’d leave them that copy so that it looked like they made a copy of it. And then they would notarize all the documents, even though they’d never seen this person. They have a copy of his driver’s license. Everything’s signed. Cox said he signed it. It’s good, notarized. Here’s your check. So what I do is I think let me see if I can get Eric to do this. I knew he’d been to prison before, so I call up Eric and I remember one of my buddies like, “He’s never going to do this.” And I was like, “I think he will. I think he will.”
And that’s really that kind of like, “You think? What do you think? No.” “Let me try. Let me call him.” “I don’t know, bro.” That’s the kind of conversations you’re having but really, looking back-
So I said, “Can you come over?” And he goes, “Yeah.” So he comes to the office, whatever, a few hours later, and he comes in the conference room. I said, “Hey, Eric, what’s going on?” And he says, “How’s it going?” I said, “Listen, I’m going to tell you something. I need a favor.” He’s like, “Okay, cool. What is it?” I said, “You know all these houses we’ve been having you go and clean up?” He’s like, “Yeah.” “You painted that one house. You did this.” “Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know. I know.” “Right. So here’s what we’ve been doing. I’ve been buying these houses for $50,000, recording them for 200, and then I have these fake people buy them.” And I explain, I just lay it out for him and he’s like, “Wow.” He’s like, “Fucking, bro, that’s ingenious, man. That’s smart.” Like, “Wow.”
I was like, “Okay. Yeah, I know. That’s great. So here’s the thing.” I said, “The title company, who’s been closing some of these loans, and we have a closing in a couple of days, she wants this guy James Red to show up, and I need someone to show up as James Red.” And he goes, “Wow.” He goes, “Who are you going to get to do that?” And I was just thinking just like, “You’re not understanding. I’m not confiding in you because I need a friend.” And I looked at him, I said, “Well, I was thinking you might do it.” He was like, “That’s a big favor.” I said, “It is a big favor.” “I could be in a lot of trouble.” And I said, “I know.” And he goes, “Well, wait a minute. I can’t go.” He said, “You have to give these people a driver’s license. You said the driver’s licenses, you were using mugshots. You said she’s closed a couple of these. She’s seen this guy’s picture.”
And I go, “She has seen his picture.” I said, “The thing is for James Red, I pulled the mugshot offline of you when you were arrested a couple of years ago.” And he jumps up and he goes, “You motherfucker.” And I go, “Whoa, whoa.” I said, “Eric, wait a minute. Hold on, hold on.” I said, “Listen, I only did that because I knew if it came down to this moment, you were the only person that I knew that could pull this off, that’d have the balls to walk in and do it.” And he sat there and he went, “Yeah, you’re right. You’re right.” And I couldn’t believe he fell … Listen, this guy would beat the brakes off me.
He’s like five ten, five eleven. He’s boxed. He’s a big guy. So it’s like I’ve weathered that part of the storm. And he sat there and he goes, “Right, right.” And he goes, “Well, I’m not doing it for free. I’m not doing it for nothing.” I said, “No, bro, of course not.” He’s like, “You’re making a lot of money.” I said, “Well, keep in mind a lot of that money goes back in the property. It’s not like we’re walking away with” … I think I said tens of thousands. We’re really walking away with hundreds of thousands. “It’s not like we’re walking away with a bunch of money, Eric. We got to buy more properties. We got to keep it going. We got to make the payments.” “I know but still I could get in a lot of trouble.” I said, “I understand, bro.” I go, “Well, what do you want?”
And I remember thinking if he asked for more than 10 or 15,000, I’ll do it myself. We’ll just change title companies and we’ll go and I’ll do it myself. And he sat there and he went, “I want $500.” And I went “$500?” Listen, I almost started laughing. I put my hand over my mouth. I was like, “$ 500? It’s going to take you 30 minutes.” And he’s like, “I don’t care, bro. I could get in a lot of trouble.” I was like, “Well, I’m not paying you now. You got to sign first.” And he’s like, “Oh, you know I’ll sign. I’ll sign. I know you’re good for it.” For 500 bucks. I made a fake ID for him. He goes into the place, he signs James Red. Comes out.
What was funny about that was when we walked into the title company, we’re sitting in the lobby and Mary comes walking out, she looks at me and she goes, “Mr. Cox. I don’t know why you’re here.” She goes, “I told Kelly” … that was the broker … “I told the broker that I’m not closing the loan unless James Red shows up.” And Eric stands up on cue and he goes, “I’m James Red.” And she goes, “Hold on a second.” She runs in the back, comes back with a file, opens it up, looks at the picture, and she’s like, “Oh, I’m so sorry. Give me five minutes. I’ve got the file.” Prints up the docs. He goes in, signs.
And when we’re there, she’s passing out the checks, 5,000 here, 25,000 here, 35,000 here, 7,000 here, 6,000 here. So he sees all these checks and I’m like, “Oh, I got that. I have the construction company. No, no, no, I have that. I’ll take care of that. I’ll take care of that.” So I get all the checks and I leave. We go sit in my Audi and he sits down and he’s like, “Bro, that’s a lot of money.” “A lot of that money goes back into the properties, Eric.” And he’s like, “Ah, still, bro.” And I counted out 500 bucks. But listen, a week later-
But by that point it was like five or six. We’d done five or six with that guy. After five or six plus the credit cards, plus all the other things, their credit scores start dropping. If it was 700, now it’s down to like 600. And at 600, you couldn’t really borrow enough to make it worth it. So I go, “No, I have other people in the wings, waiting.” I’d go out and I’d run up the credit cards and pull all the money out of the banks and close the accounts and then stop paying.
Can you give an example? What do you mean getting caught?
So, she calls me up and says, “Listen, Alan Duncan never made his first mortgage payment.” I had a friend of mine, or one of my co-defendants, when we closed on that loan, we both got checks for whatever, 40 or 50 grand. Keep in mind, we’re also buying, some of this money’s going into a business account. We’re buying property. So it’s not like I’m pocketing hundreds of thousands of dollars or even 20 or $30,000 on every closing. I’m more like, I’m getting 25, 10, 20, and this guy’s getting 10 and this guy’s getting 15, and then we’re taking 60 and we’re putting it into the business account. We’re buying a bunch of vacant lots, or we’re building some new houses. So we’re trying to take all this and turn it into a development company. But we still have to pay our bills. So, my buddy’s got to go to Amsterdam at least for two weeks. He’s from Belgium. Apparently you have to do that at least once a year. When I gave him the check, I said, “Here’s the 20 grand or 15 grand, but you got to make the payments on this thing for the next six months.” He goes, “No problem.” I said, “Okay.”
So, she calls me up a month and a half later and says, “Hey, Alan Duncan did not make his first payment.” And I went, “Oh my God.” He was actually renting the apartment downstairs for me. So, I run downstairs and I open the door and I go, “Bro,” I’m like, “did you make Duncan’s payment?” And he turns around and he’s like, “Is it due?” And I was like, “Oh my God.” So I run back, I grabbed the phone, I’m like, “He didn’t make it. He didn’t make it.” She’s like, “Okay, well here’s what’s happening. The account executive is calling. They’ve got the file.” It was South Star Bank. “South Star Bank has it. They reviewed it. They’ve already been ordering documents. They’re said there’s a problem there. It’s falling apart. The whole thing’s falling. They know something’s wrong.”
I mean, 20 seconds later, speakerphone. ” Hey, Mr. Duncan, this is so-and-so, and I’m here with our lawyer and the president of the bank and our head of fraud. We were just discussing you.” And I was like, “Okay, I understand that I haven’t made my first payment. I said, it actually came back in the mail. I had the wrong address. That was completely my fault and I apologize.” I said, “But I can get you a cashier’s check. Today I will overnight it, no problem. Hope that’s going to be okay.” They said, “Wait, we’re way past that, way past that.” I said, “Okay, well, what’s the issue?”
They were like, “Look, to be honest, I don’t think I’m talking to Alan Duncan. I don’t think there is an Alan Duncan. I mean, your social security number was issued a couple of years ago. We called the bank.” We had gone with our SunTrust Bank, so it was a real bank, but it wasn’t our normal bank. And they called. ” They don’t have any record of you.” And I was like, “Well, I’ve never been happy with SouthStar Bank. It sounds like a banking error.” And they’re like, “Yeah, I don’t think this isn’t cute.”
By the way, the broker is there and my buddy Rudy is there. And I mean, he’s pacing the room, she’s in tears, crying. And I’m like, “Okay, well fellas,” I say, “Where’s this headed? Where’s this going? What are we doing?” So, they’re kind of chuckling and joking about it. I remember thinking, “What’s the deal? It’s weird.” And I said, “Look, let me just pay you back.” They said, “Ah, we’ll get the money. We’re not worried about it.” I said, “You don’t seem worried about the money, about getting any of the money back. Why don’t you just let me, I’ll cut you a check. I can get you the money back. What do I owe?” I owed them 150 or something. I forget exactly. It was nothing. I’m like, owe you 150,000. Let me cut you check for 150,000.
They were like, “No, no, we’ll get the money back when we foreclose on the property.” That’s when I was like, “Oh, they think the property’s worth like a $195,000 or something.” I went, “Oh,” I said, “I understand. Okay, so do you have the appraisal in front of you?” They were like, “Yeah.” I said, “Open it up.” I said, “Take a look at comp number one. That’s owned by a guy named name Lee Black. Comp number two is owned by whatever, David Silver,” whatever the names were. I’m like, “Black, Silver, Red.” I said, “I am all those people.” And I said, “Let me tell you what I’ve done.” And I tell them, just laid out, “Boom, boom, boom, boom.” I said, “So you can call the FBI, but you’re not going to get all your money back. Or you could let me give you your money back and we can let sleeping dogs lie. The whole thing goes away. I apologize. I had every intention of making all the payments. It’s a glitch. You caught me. My bad.”
So, these guys are all just like, “Oh, my God.” Now they put me on hold, they’re looking through the file, they come back. And I remember at some point we go back, forth, back, forth, and finally they come back and they said, “Listen, you still have the money?” I said, “Yeah.” Well, first they come back, they threaten me, “Oh, well, when we give this to the FBI, you’re…” I said, “That’s not true. I said, the money was deposited into a bank account. It has since been moved. The bank account has been closed. It’s been removed in cash. That money has gone. You will never see that money. I will be cutting you, if I pay you back at all, it’ll be from another account.” So, the FBI agent ends up saying, “He’s right. Even if we caught him red-handed, the likelihood that any of these funds will ever be recouped, is zero.” There’s almost no money is ever recouped.
They put me on hold again and they come back and they go, “How quickly can you get us a cashier’s check?” That day I go get them a cashier’s check, overnight the cashier’s check. They never called the FBI. They never did anything. Now, at that point, we actually ditched that Alan Duncan. I remember at that point we went to the mall, ran up all the credit cards and just threw everything away and walked away, because it was shot. That guy was shot. I think we borrowed, whatever, $800,000 or $900,000 in his name.
Well, you can’t owner-occupy six dwellings. That’s fraud. Now granted, her W-2s and pay stubs were correct, but she didn’t put the down payments down. Even the down payments we didn’t put down, we actually got cash back. But months later, the lawyer from Washington Mutual ends up calling the mortgage broker and saying that they ended up with two of the owner-occupied duplexes, because Washington Mutual had a credit line extended to one of the lenders who’d lent the money. So, it actually was Washington Mutual. So, it was a couple months later when they went to sell it, they package them together and sell them, they realized we have the same customer with two duplexes, side by side, both owner-occupied. This is fraud. She comes in, she tells me, “Oh my gosh, this lawyer’s on the phone. This is what happened.” I’m like, “Oh wow, this is horrible.”
I end up getting on the phone with him. We have a conversation and he’s like, “Look, this is a big deal. We could call the FBI.” I’m like, “Look, who knows who was involved in this? Maybe somebody on your side was involved, maybe somebody on my side. I don’t know what my mortgage broker did. I’ll deal with her on my own. Why don’t you just let us refinance the properties?” Not only did we talk him into allowing us to refinance the properties, he gave us a reduced balance of what we owed him. Because we couldn’t borrow enough to pay him off. So, they took like a $20,000 hit just to refinance those properties. Never called the FBI, never did anything. Absolutely fraud.
I had a broker one time, we got caught with over a million dollars in loans that he had done that were fraudulent. Pinnacle Bancorp, which was out of Chicago, the owner called me, and he was like, “Look, your mortgage broker did this.” There was a bunch of canceled checks. They were fake canceled checks. So, they looked like they had run through the bank for somebody’s rent, but they hadn’t. Does that make sense? You pay your rent, they deposit it, it goes to the bank and they’ve got all the numbers and everything. Well, I had a bunch that were blank, that all you had to do was fill out your borrower’s information and then you cut and pasted his name and his address at the upper left-hand corner. You make a copy of it, it looks like canceled checks. We had 24 of them. Well, one of my brokers was using them for all of his files. Even if the person really had a rental history, he didn’t want to order it. He just did this, it was easier.
I said, “Well, what are you going to do with them?” He goes, “Well, they’re going to be a part of a package, like a $3 million package we’re selling to Household Bank.” The other ones they had caught had already been sold. The ethical thing to do is to contact Household Bank, say, “We will buy those back. We are going to take care of…” It’s not what happened. In fact, Gary flew down a couple weeks later, took me and several of the brokers, not that broker, but several of the brokers out to dinner, had a few drinks, and he openly admitted. He’s like, “Look, I don’t care if all the loans have fraud in them, as long as they don’t come back on me. That’s what I’m concerned about.” Because there was a clawback clause for one year. He’s like, “So, if they can perform for one year, I don’t care.” That was it.
So, I would say that, I forget what the FBI statistic was. It was like 20% or 30%. Prior to the financial crisis it was like 20 or 30% of bank loans, they were saying, that contained some kind of fraud, even if it was just a lie. If you want to cut 30% out of… That’s a ton. That’s a ton.
She goes, gets in my car. She says, “Yeah, listen, there’s a problem.” So we’re driving down the road, she explains it to me. I realized, “Okay, that’s done. It’s over. We’re not going back.” She’s like, “What about the other closing?” “No, no. No more closings, we’re done.” And it was probably more of a yell, screaming and yelling like, “What the hell did you do? I told you not to change your hair. Why would you change your hair?” When she came in the day before, and I was like, “What did you do? What did you do?” And she’s like, “I changed my hair. What’s the big deal? It’s still me.” Sure enough.
It’s not that I knew that that was going to happen, but why tempt fate?
So, I’m like, “Okay, look, here’s what you do.” And I explained to her, “Do this, do this, this. Send it here. It’ll close.” And we closed it. Well, then she starts calling me, “Hey, how’s it going?” We go to lunch. Next thing you know, we start sleeping together. She realizes what’s happening. She says, “I want in on this.” So, now we do the closings. We’re on our way. I say, “Look, that check’s dead.” She goes, “What about the other one?” I go, “No, no, it’s all dead. We’re walking away.” Now, it was easy for me to say, because for me, I had money. She’s going through a divorce, she’s broke. None of this did I take into consideration at the time, by the way, to me it’s like, “Nah, that’s dead. We’re done. We’ll start over again.” To her, in her mind, that was a million-dollar scam. She was about to end up getting whatever it was, half or one-third of half a million dollars in the next week. Now she’s got nothing.
So, she says, “Look, let’s at least cash this one.” I had a buddy named Travis Hayes, we actually, we’ve been friends since high school. We were best friends, really close friends in high school. We were still close. Travis was running a scam. Hers was in Clearwater, his was in Orlando. So, I’m all over the state at this point. So, he’s running an Orlando scam that’s already yielded half a million, maybe more. We’re still refinancing properties, right? So he’s about to close on another half a million dollars worth of properties.
He’s got a bank account that’s open. She says, “Let’s give it to Travis, have him deposit it in his account.” He’s already pulled out like 300,000 out of the account. And she’s like, “Shouldn’t be a problem.” I was like, “No, no, no.” And she goes, “Let me call him.” I think I called him and I explained the situation. He said, “Do you think it’s okay?” And I said, “No, I don’t think it’s okay. I don’t think it’s okay at all.” And he’s like, “Nah, it’s not a big deal. Just give me the check.” So, I give him the check. He goes, he deposits the check. They say they’re going to hold it until it clears. That was kind of a thing back then. It takes, I don’t know, I don’t know how long it took, five days, six days, whatever it was. He was supposed to go back and it would’ve cleared and he would’ve been able to start pulling money out. So, I call him one day, because Allison’s bugging me. So I call him and I go, “Hey, where are you at?” He goes, “I’m actually on my way to Orlando.” And I said, “Oh, okay, so you let Allison know I’m not getting any money.”
He said, “The bank manager called and said that because the check was over a hundred thousand dollars, they have to witness me endorsing the back of the check. Or they had to see my something.” For me to come in, I’m like, “Whoa.” I said, “Something’s wrong. Something’s wrong. Don’t go to the bank.” “What do you think is wrong?” I go, “I think the cops are waiting for you. That’s what I think is wrong.” And he goes, “No, the cops aren’t.” He goes, “Man, I’m in the parking lot right now. I just pulled into the parking lot. There’s no cops.” I’m like, “They’re not going to be in squad cars.” And he’s like, “No.” He said, “It’s fine. You’re overreacting, bro.” And I’ll never forget what he said. He said, “You’re shaking like a little girl, bro. Calm down. I got this. I’m cool with the manager.” The manager, because you’ve chopped it up with the manager, he’s going to let your fraudulent check go through.
So, he walks in, the cops are in there, they locked the door. He told me later, they closed the door, locked it. The cops are in there. They grab him, and they bring him downtown. He didn’t say anything. He won’t say anything. That’s not true, by the way. So, here’s what he told me, he wouldn’t say anything, “I told them, ‘I’m not talking to you, coppers.'”
So, I turned around and I said, “He got arrested.” Then later on that night, he showed up on the county website, the arrest website, showing he had been arrested. The next day he calls me and he asked me to get him out of jail. Like, “Hey, you got to go.” So, I have to give his brother-in-law money. We get him out of jail. He actually got out-
He comes, of course, he tells me, “Look, they asked me a bunch of questions. I told him that…” He made up some story about he’s working with another guy, but he doesn’t know the guy’s name. He made up a name. He has this whole kind of thing where he tells them about me, but not me. None of the numbers led anywhere. So they all lead to cell phones that are only being used for those scams. So it’s a dead alley or a blind alley. I’m like, “Okay, okay.” And I’m paying him. He’s coming in, “Man, my truck’s no good. I need another truck.” I buy him another truck. “Hey man, the electric is going to get turned off and I don’t have… I need a thousand dollars.” “Of course, here’s a thousand dollars. I’m embarrassed you had to ask. Here’s a thousand.” A week later, he needs 2000 for this, a thousand for this, 2000 for this. He wants to start a tree-trimming company. He needs to buy a tree-trimmer. “How much are those? 5,000? Of course, $5,0000.” So I give him another 25,000, starts like a tree-trimming business, which he runs to this day.
What I don’t know, is that the whole time he’s actually working with a task force that’s been put together.
So very quickly they put together a task force. He’s working with them on the task force, and we’re still buying houses, flipping houses, doing everything. Because I believe him. He’s saying, “Look, if I have to go to jail for a year or so,” and he is also paying… He hasn’t paid them back yet, but we’re saying he can pay them back. He’s like, “Look, if we get to the point, when we get to that point, we’ll pay them back.” But we haven’t paid him back yet, because we have no way to show where that money came from. We can always go to one of his relatives and give his dad 40 grand, give his mom 20 grand, that kind of stuff, and start putting money that way. And all that money was taken out in cash, too. So we could always show up with a chunk in cash.
Well, that’s happening. We’re still flipping properties. And, one day… I have a buddy named Steve Sutton. Remember the sheriff’s deputy? Keep in mind, it’s funny because I’ve done bad loans for police officers, sheriffs, lawyers, doctors, across… everybody. These aren’t all-
I know that there are subpoenas being served and I’m nervous. I’m very concerned. One day, I’m in my office and the sheriff’s deputy walks in, Steve Sutton, in his uniform too, which everybody always stiffened when he would walk in. He walks in. I go, “Steve.” I said, “What’s going on?” He said… and usually he’s jolly and laughs and stuff. He says, “I got to talk to you outside.” I was like, “Okay.” I walk outside, “What’s up?” He says, “I used to date this girl in the Tampa Police Department,” or something. I was like, “Okay.” He said, “She showed up at my house this morning at six o’clock in the morning.” I went, “Okay.” He said, “She said that she’s been working on a task force.”
And, he said, “Apparently, one of your buddies got arrested in Orlando. They’re investigating some other thing in Clearwater. They’re investigating a ton of properties here in Ybor, Tampa Heights. And, there’s like a hundred properties involved. And, my name came up because you’ve sold some properties to me,” which I had. He’s like, “So, she came to me and said, ‘Look, your buddy, Cox…'” I was like, “Okay.” He goes… He said, “Well, the task force is on you. And, she said to stop talking to you because they’re going to come arrest you in a couple of days. They just handed over the task force findings to the FBI and the FBI is going to come arrest you in a couple of days. She said not to talk to you because you’re going to cooperate because all white collar guys cooperate. So, she thinks you’re going to cooperate and not to talk to you because she’s afraid you’re going to get me hemmed up. And, she said just to walk away.”
He was like, “So, I thought you should know.” I was like, “Okay.” He said, “What are you going to do?” I said, “Oh… you know…” Well, first, he said, “What should I do?” I go, “Tell them. Tell them that I arranged all the loans for you.” You came in. You signed the paperwork. I filled out all the documents. You signed the paperwork. I arranged everything.” I’m like, “You’re not a mortgage broker. You don’t know if this is legit. You have perfect credit. You signed the paperwork. You walked away with a check for 30,000. You don’t know.” He was like… Because, he did it because he had a job. He was a sheriff’s deputy.
I went in. I applied for a loan at a bank. They said, “You can buy the house and we’ll give you $30,000.” So, of course I’m going to do that. That’s not going to happen. But, he doesn’t know. I said, “Just tell them yeah. Tell them you’ll cooperate, absolutely.” He goes, “What are you going to do?” I said, “Me?” I said, “I’m leaving, bro. I’m leaving.” I said, “I can’t stay here. I can’t go to prison. I was just sentenced. I’m on federal probation right now. The judge isn’t going to be cool with me getting popped again. I can’t do it. Can’t do it.” I said, “I’m leaving. Can’t go to prison. I’m adorable, bro. I saw Shawshank Redemption. I know what’s going to happen. I can’t.”
I go home that night. I start packing my bags. And, I was dating this chick named Rebecca Houck. We’d been dating about a month. And, she shows up at my house. I hadn’t returned her phone calls all day and apparently we’re supposed to go out and I’d forgotten about it. I had bigger issues. So, I’m packing a couple of duffle bags and she walks in and she’s like, “What’s going on?” I’m like, “I’m leaving.” Where are you going? I thought we were supposed to go out at such and go do something tonight. I’m like, “I’m leaving. It’s over.” She says, “What happened?” I tell her what happened. This is what happened. She’s like, “Oh my God.” She had no idea.
She’s like, “I was going to send him back. He’s failing school. He’s smoking pot. He’s been caught sneaking out after curfew.” I’m like, “Oh, okay. I don’t know any of this.” She’s like, “He was going back in December?” No, he was going back after the school year, which would’ve been like May. Okay. I’m like… Where before, five minutes earlier, I thought she was this sweet secretary, sweet innocent secretary, she’s like, “I’ve been married three times. I am a gambler. I’ve claimed bankruptcy. I’m sleeping with my boss.” She went from this thieving, adulterous, and I thought these are all really beneficial to my future plans. And, I shouldn’t have… At that moment, I was so just flipped out and concerned. And, up and leaving your life and everything you know behind, that’s terrifying. Now, you’re alone in a strange place, in a place-
Were you born here? Were you born in… Weren’t you from? Ah, man. I was born here. I was born in such… Oh, Hillsborough County. It was no big deal. We get to Atlanta. I make a fake ID for both of us. But, keep in mind, I don’t have a driver’s license. I do. But, they’re fake. I can’t give this to a cop. Can’t give a driver’s license that says David Freeman.
They give you a phone number that you call up and they say, “Hi, United Southern Bank.” They’ll answer the phone and forward messages. We get one of those, make a business card for Becky. She rents a house from a guy named Michael Shanahan. We rent Michael Shanahan’s house. It’s like $200,000. $200,000 house in Alpharetta. I then go to… Wait, I then order Scott Kugnos birth certificate, social security card. I think I registered to vote in his name and I made a lease agreement in his name. And, I think that’s all I needed. Then I went to Alabama and got a driver’s license in his name. I went into the DMV, give him all these documents, which almost all of them are real except for the lease.
They said, “Sit over there.” I sit over there. I sit down. Boom. 20 minutes later I have a driver’s license. It was 20 something dollars. It was nothing. I get the driver’s license. Now, I’m driving this. I’m still driving a car, an Audi that is in the name of Matt Cox. I park that. I then go get social security to issue me a social security number in the name’s Scott Kugno. I then turn around and I go and I get a loan. You put down 20, 30%. There’s all these first time buyers. 30% down. Get like a Honda or something. Now, we’re living in a house, we’ve got some furniture, bedroom furniture. I go downtown. I pull the title to this guy, Michael Shanahan’s house, and I go downtown and I satisfy the loan on his house. He had two loans with Bank of America.
I create two satisfaction of loans from Bank of America. Michael Shanahan owns a house in the name Michael Shanahan. He has one mortgage with Bank of America and a second one. When you pay your mortgage off, the way public records knows it’s paid off is they mail public records a satisfaction of mortgage. It’s a one-page document, and it’s notarized.
So, I’ve got these notary stamps. I notarize the satisfactions. I go downtown, I file them. Boom, the mortgages are gone. Keep in mind, Bank of America, he’s still paying the mortgages. They don’t know that they’ve been satisfied in public records. They’re not notified. Those are gone. But, it takes about a month or two for it to show up. Atlanta was that far behind. I think it was Fulton County. They were just way behind. So, we just have to dick around for a while. We’re going on little vacations. We’re going to New Orleans. We’re going to different places as Scott Kugno, driving a car as Scott Kugno.
We opened up several bank accounts. We opened multiple bank accounts. And then, we ended up going to Vegas. We do go to Vegas. But, what happened was we were driving around and I remember thinking, telling her, I was like, “This is a problem. We have to get real IDs, real driver’s licenses. I mean, this is real. But, this is a real person too. He may stumble across it.” What I did was I started running ads in magazines saying home loans available. Good credit, bad credit, no problem. Call now. Government loans, government… VA, FHA, whatever. Call this number. People start calling and I’m getting their information. One of the guys I got was Michael Eckert. Yeah, I remember. Michael Eckert. Poor Michael Eckert. I actually legally changed his name to Michael Johnson at one point. But, at this point, it was just Michael Eckert. I wanted to see… I’m bored, I want to see what the process is. How much does it cost? Is this possible? Let me see if I can change this guy’s name. It was 1,500 bucks. I changed it.
I’m thinking you’re not getting a loan. So, I’m just taking… I’m just stealing from you, stealing your information. I get all this information. I’m gathering it. One of the things I said to Becky while we are sitting at this stoplight is I’m like, “We got to get people’s real information. For instance, I said, “What if I steal somebody’s identity? I get a driver’s license in his name four states from where he lives, and he gets a DUI? I could get pulled over two years later and get arrested for a DUI that he got in Florida.” She’s like, “Well, what are you thinking? Are you thinking criminals or you thinking prisoners, mental patients?” I looked over and there was a homeless guy holding a sign. I went, “Like that guy.” I’ll never forget, she goes, she says, “The hobo?” I don’t know who calls them hobos. She’s like, “The hobo?” I said, “Yes. That guy.”
I said, “Hold on.” Pulled over to a Subway. Got out. She went inside to get Subway. I walk across the street, pulled out like 20 bucks. I said, “Hey bro, can I ask you some quick questions real quick?” He’s like, “Yeah, what’s up?” I go, “Here’s 20 bucks.” I said, “Listen.” I said, “When was the last time you were gainfully employed?” He’s like, “Ah,” whatever, “10 years.” I’m like, “Oh, okay. Do you have a criminal record?” He’s like, “Ah, I’ve been arrested with misdemeanors, like vagrancy.” He names off some things, drunk in public, whatever. I was like, “Are you on probation?” He goes, “I can’t do probation. They don’t give us probation. They keep us for 90 days. They release us. The judge knows I can’t do… I’m not going to show up for a probation.” I’m like, “Okay, do you have a driver’s license?” He’s like, “Maybe, I don’t think so.” I go, “Did you get a DUI?” He’s like, “No, I think it’s just expired.” Did you have a driver’s license with you? He’s like, “No, I got nothing.” I’m like, “Okay. Well…” He told me he lived in a tent in the woods. So, I gave him another 20 bucks, asked him a few more questions. I remember in the middle of it, he said, he goes, “What, are you’re taking a survey or something?” I remember thinking… not thinking, I chuckled. I go, “You get a lot of surveyors out here like that.” He goes, “Yes. Sometimes.” I was like, “Really?” He goes, “Yeah.” He said, “People from halfway houses and…” What did he say? Social workers and stuff. They’ll come out and they’ll pass out stuff and they’ll ask us questions and stuff. I’m like, “Oh, okay.”
I thought, “That’s good to know.” I go back. I get grab Becky, and she’s like, “Oh, did you give him money?” I said, “I give him like 40 or 60 bucks or something. Forget what.” She was like, “What a waste of money.” I thought that was good. That was money well spent. I said, “That guy’s perfect.” I said, “That guy… He’s got everything. He has no way to be contacted. He has no documentation on him.” I said, “He’s not going to drive a car. He’s not going to get a DUI. He has an expired license. I just have to get his license reinstated and I can be him.” I went home. I typed up what I called a federal statistical survey form, and I made a little thing. I mean, I went online. I mean, I’m always filling out federal documents as a mortgage broker. It looked identical. I mean, I had this little… the recycle symbol, and it was like Federal Form 17017. I print out these forms. I go buy a clipboard. I make a little Salvation Army ID. I pin it on me. I go out and I start-
What high school did you go to? Because, high school transcripts are great for documentation. A lot of times they’ll ask you for high school. Can you get us a copy of your high school transcripts? That’s good to know. And, I’m a big believer in overkill. I mean, I ordered a ton of stuff. If I needed three things to get a driver’s license in your name right, I’d come in with six. Because, what you do is you get in front of the guy at the DMV and you fumble through like, “Oh, I got this. What else do you need?” I know exactly what you need. But, they’ll be like, “Oh, was that high school transcript? Yeah, I’ll take that. Oh, voter’s registration card. Give me that. Yeah, you’re perfect. You’re good. Sit down. Right over there.” That’s it.
My girlfriend made me vote immediately, and she said I would need that. Oh yeah, it’s perfect. You’re good. I don’t even need that. Okay, great. Stand over there. Pay that person. They call your number, 275. Forty five minutes later, you go, you pay your 25 bucks. You stand in front of the screen. They take a picture. You got a driver’s license. You walk out, it’s still warm. It’s beautiful. It smells like popped plastic. It’s amazing. So, I am opening up different bank accounts in these guys’ names and just about-
And at this point, by the way, there’s multiple articles showing up in Tampa. So the St. Petersburg Times is writing multiple articles about me.
But I’m living in this place. I make a fake ID in the name Michael Shanahan, and I call up three hard money-lenders. A hard money-lender is a guy that lends his own money or other investors’ money on property, kind of like a bank, but he’s lending his own money so he doesn’t have to really meet the banking requirements, and he can charge a much higher interest rate. These guys are charging 12, 13% interest, simple interest, and they’re only lending you a much lower percentage of the value of your home. So they’re not lending you 90% of the value. They’re lending you 65%, 60%.
So I call three of these guys. They all come out to the house at different times, and each one of them says, “I’ll lend you 100,000,” or it’s like 150,000. They all lend roughly 150,000. So we schedule three separate closings. None of them know about the other person. So what I do is I close one loan on let’s say Monday, and then one on Tuesday, and then one on whatever, Wednesday or Thursday, or they may have all been the same day, to be honest, but I don’t remember.
The point is I go to three separate title companies or real estate attorneys, and we close, and I get checks, after cost and everything the total ends up being roughly 400,000. So I’ve got 400,000.
Becky and I run another scam in Tallahassee, Florida, and we get like 50 grand, plus the ’80s dwindled down to close to nothing. Because we had gone on several vacations. We went to Bermuda, and I think we went to Jamaica. We actually stayed at the Ritz in Jamaica. So it was very nice.
These are new accounts, so it looks odd, but we were always… I open the account. So what ends up happening is we’re cashing them, and I remember getting really frustrated because it was just taking forever. And I had gone into a bank one time. And they have banks where they actually cash large checks. Like if you go into Bank of America and you try and cash a check for $15,000 or 25,000, they probably won’t do it. They’ll tell you, “We don’t have that much cash on hand. We don’t this, we don’t that.”
They have certain banks that do that. So they told me where one of those was. I went there, I had a check for like 29,000 that had been cut on a closing for Michael Shanahan. Remember I refinanced Michael Shanahan’s? I’ve got a check for 29,000 that was issued to Scott Cogno. So I’m sitting in the bank, I go in there and I say, “I need to cash this.” And she says, “You’re going to have to talk to the manager.” I go, okay. She says, “Go sit down over there.” I go sit down in the little glass cubicle.
He comes over and he says, “I see you’re trying to cash this check.” And I was like, right. He goes, “Why don’t you just deposit in your own bank?” And I went, “My bank is a credit union or something and it’s in Florida. They’ll hold this thing for two weeks. I need the money now. I have people I need to pay.” He was like, “Well, I’m not sure.” And I was like, “Well, it’s fine. It’s a cashier check. It’s good.” And he goes, “No, it’s good. It’s good.” I said, “You have the money?” And he’s like, “Yeah, we have the money.” He said, “It’s just odd. Hold on,” he goes back in the back, and he comes back and he says, “Where’d you get the check?” Cashier’s check. I said, “It was a cashier’s check. It was drawn off of a closing for somebody’s property that we’re doing. The company I work for, we’re putting on an addition on,” okay, that makes sense.
Comes back, goes, “Well, why do you need cash?” And I was like, “I’m cashing guys’ checks that work for the company. There’s a lot of these guys that are Mexican guys. They give them a check, they go to a check cashing company or they get charged 5, 10%. So I cash them,” I’m like, I don’t under… What? The check’s good, right? And he’s like, “Yeah, we’re just trying to verify some stuff.” And he went, “Yeah, hold on.” And he leaves again.
And I remember my cell phone rang, and I pick up the phone, it’s Becky. She goes, ” What are you doing? What’s taking so long?” I go, “Ah, the guy’s being a jerk. He doesn’t want to give me the money.” Well, she’s like, “Oh my God, get out of the bank. Get out of the bank.” And I went, “I can’t get out of the bank. The guy’s got my ID, he’s got my credit card, my ID, and the check for 29,000. He’s going to call the police if I just jump up and run.” And I go, “Don’t call me again. I’ll let you know. It’ll be fine.” I hang up the phone.
She calls back, same conversation, “I’m bouncing all the walls. I’m like, I’m going crazy.” I’m like, “It’ll be fine.” Hang up the phone. He comes back out and I said, “Hey, so what’s taking so long?” And he goes, “We’re trying to get in touch with Michael Shanahan to verify the check.” That’s not good for me. I’m thinking, right, right. Okay. Okay. And he walks away, the phone rings, it’s Becky, “What’s going on?” I go, “They’re trying to get ahold of Michael Shanahan.” She goes, “Oh my God! Oh my God!”
And I’m like, oh my God. And I remember thinking I shouldn’t have left her the keys. There’s a good chance I run out of this place and she’s not there.
And I’m getting up, and so I’m starting to walk out of the bank and he said, “Excuse me, Mr. Cogno?” And I said, yes, sir. I turned around. And he goes, “I’d like you to know that I feel very apprehensive about this transaction.” And I go, “Really? What is it exactly?” He goes, “I can’t put my finger on it.” And I go, “It’ll come to you.” And I turn around and I just bolt right out of there.
And keep in mind, a week or so later, the Secret Service shows up. Did you cash a check for $29,000? So what’s so funny is that was one of the last checks we cashed. So we ended up with like 400,000.
And I’m living in areas that these cars are everywhere. So I end up going to Charlotte, North Carolina. We rent an apartment, we decide to run a scam in South Carolina, so I go to Columbia, South Carolina. And in between this period of time, we go to Las Vegas. We go to Las Vegas to drop off a bunch of money to Becky’s son’s father, who’s taking care of her son. We drop off some money there we go, and we start… And while we’re there, it’s like, “Hey, there’s homeless people here.”
So when I get to criminal record, he says, criminal record. He’s like, “Yeah, I’ve been arrested three, four times,” he said, “for prostitution.” He said, but they’re like misdemeanors. And I went, okay. And it was like, okay, well prostitution… To me, women get charged with prostitution. Men get charged with solicitation. I went, “Prostitution?” And he said, “Yeah, yeah.” He said, “I offered to blow an undercover cop for 20 bucks.” He said, “That’s what I thought you were coming out here for.” And I was like, no, no, bro. I said okay. And he’s like, yeah. He said, “I mean, a girl’s got to do what a girl’s got to do.” And he made some comment or something. I was like, okay.
So I jot down the rest of it, we’re good. I give him 20 bucks. I get in my car. I leave. We get back to North Carolina. I order all of his documents. His name was Gary Sullivan. I then go to South Carolina. When I go to South Carolina, I get a real estate agent. We drive around for a day. We look at five or six houses. I put five owner financing contracts on five different houses. So he writes up five contracts, all of them are asking for owner financing. I’ll put down 10%. I want owner financing. Two of them end up coming back and saying yes, we’ll do it. I have two closings. One of them is a house that’s worth like 225,000. I put down 25 grand. Another one’s 110,000. I put down 11,000.
So I buy these two houses. I then satisfy the loans on both the houses. Everything seems like it’s going okay, although Becky’s a lunatic at this point. She won’t take her medication. She’s had so many outbursts. And by this time we’ve had plastic surgery. She’s gotten plastic surgery, she’s gotten a boob job, she’s gotten liposuction. I mean, all kinds of stuff.
So we’re goofing off, but she’s also a lunatic. She’s getting the cops called. She’s able to go out, and she’s able to stay stoned 24 hours a day. She’s going out with friends, drinking. I never leave the house.
Even to this day, I really barely ever leave the house. I’m very much a homebody kind of person. So the idea that I’m able to make my living doing YouTube and I never have to leave my house, I love that. I don’t ever go anywhere except for the gym and back home. That’s it.
So what happens is I’ve actually moved her out of my apartment. Like I had an apartment downtown, 30-story building. I actually move her into another apartment. She’s that much of a lunatic. We can’t even be in the same place. Multiple times I’ve tried to leave her, she’s called me up and begged me to come back. It’s horrible.
So I end up buying a couple houses in Columbia, South Carolina. I satisfy the loans on the houses. I’ve got an ID, not a driver’s license, but an ID in the name of Gary Lee Sullivan. And I refinanced those houses, because keep in mind, there was owner financing, but they also had mortgages. So there’s something called a wraparound mortgage. So these guys did wraparound mortgages. So let’s say you buy a house for $250,000 and the bank lends you 200,000, and then you owner finance the house to me. So I give you 50 grand down, but I’m not able to get a loan from the bank to pay off your mortgage. So what we do is you do a wraparound mortgage. So I’ll pay you your mortgage and you pay the bank. So there is a second mortgage on the property, but it’s wrapped around your first.
So I sign it, notarize it, all of those are satisfied. I then go to multiple banks and I start refinancing all these properties multiple times. So I’m applying for these loans, and I’m getting the loans, and I’m closing, so I’ve got like five or six loans on this one house, it’s like 225,000. I think it was like 230, whatever. I borrow four or five loans on that house. So I borrow like $190,000 like five times. So I’ve got like $800,000, and then I borrow another 3 or 400,000 on the other house, the smaller one. So it ends up being like $1.3 million. It’s actually 1.5 million. It was more. But what happened with that was… So keep in mind, you can only open up so many bank accounts in your name. You can go to Bank of America, they’ll open one. Then you go to SunTrust, they’ll open one. They might even ask you, did you open another bank account today? Because every time you do it, there’s an inquiry into something called Check Systems or AccuCheck. And so then by the time you go to the third bank, they’ll say, “Listen, something’s not right. You’ve got multiple inquiries.” If you go to, whatever, Mercantile Bank, they might go, “Okay, we’re going to open one.” They’re going to need an explanation, but you’re not opening more than three. By the third one, they’re going to be like absolutely not. Something’s wrong.
So I’ve got multiple identities, but I can only open up so many banks. The other problem is that these checks, they’ll only give you so much money on a refi. Usually after 100,000, they only want to let you walk away with let’s say a $100,000. So one of the things I did was I would typically record another mortgage and have them pay that mortgage off. So I opened a corporation to do that, so I could then turn around and go open corporate bank accounts. Because now it’s not going off my information, it’s going off the corporation, so I can open up multiple corporate bank accounts.
One of the title companies that I was attempting to refinance one of the pieces of property with noticed that I… They’d been sent a document that showed that I had purchased the property, and I said I purchased it cash, and the documents said I purchased at cash. And they got that, and there was actually a mortgage on the property. And so somehow or another, they connected it and they called Washington Mutual and they said, “Look, there’s an issue. We have a fraudulent document here.” And he said, “So we went and we looked, and it turns out that we pulled public records and that there is a mortgage in front of us, several mortgages in front of us. So there’s like three or four mortgages in front of me, Washington Mutual. You owe us.”
And it wasn’t that much. It was like it 100 grand, right? Like 95 or 100. And I said okay. And he said, “So there’s an issue here. You’ve got a few mortgages in front of us, and we’re supposed to be your first mortgage, and we’re not supposed to be two mortgages behind or three.” And I was like, “Okay, sounds like an error. Not a big deal. Have you contacted law enforcement?” He said, “No, I haven’t. I was hoping we could rectify this some other way.” I said, “You know what? I think we can. I’m going to have my lawyer call you back. I’m going to go to his place right now. Give me about two hours.” No problem.
I immediately run, jump in my car, head towards South Carolina, call my corporate lawyer, tell him, “Look, I need to talk to you. Here’s what’s going on.” I explain it to him. He doesn’t really understand. He says, “This sounds pretty complicated. My law partner is a criminal defense attorney. I’m going to set up a meeting right now with all of us.” Okay.
I get there 45 minutes later. I walk in the door, I sit down. He says, “What happened?” They said, “Gary, this doesn’t sound right. What happened?” I said, “Okay, so listen. Bought this house. I bought it cash. I then refinanced it,” I didn’t buy it cash, but I told him, “I bought it cash. I refinanced it like four or five times within a day or two of each other.” And they were like, “How is that even possible?” I was like, “Well, I went to different title companies,” and I explained how I do it. I said, “Washington Mutual just found out that they’re in second position or third position.” Or I said, “But they may be in fourth position.” You know they mail these things in so you never know. And he was like oh my God. He’s like, “What do you want to do?” I said, “I want you to contact them and agree for them to not contact the authorities provided I pay them off.” He goes, “Do you have the money?” I said, “I do have the money. I can go get the money right now.”
He calls the lawyer. This is back when faxes, right? So they fax some documents back and forth. They do a couple emails back and forth, and they have a conversation. I remember the lawyer started arguing because he wanted to charge me like yield spread and fees and stuff, and I was like, “What are you talking about? I’ll pay it.” So it ends up being a little over 100,000. And I’m like, that’s it. So he’s like, okay. And so he says, “Okay, that sounds good.” And so he said, “Okay, all you have to do is go get the check.” And he said, “bring it to a Washington Mutual branch. Tell them to call.” I said, “I’m not going into a Washington Mutual branch, bro. I’ll bring you the check.” So he calls them back, he’s not doing that, right? Okay, I’ll bring it here. You guys take care. He said, “No problem.”
Okay, hang up the phone, and he turns to me and he says, “Okay, well we have a problem.” He said, “We still have the problem of these other mortgages.” And I went, “Right?” I said, “They don’t know anything.” He said, “I know, but Gary,” he said, “what if they find out?” I said, “They find out that they’re like in second and third and fourth place?” He’s like, “Right.” I said, “I leave town.” So they both laugh. They go, “Gary, you can’t just leave town. They have a copy of your driver’s license. They have your social security number. They have your birth certificate. They’ll find you. It’s the FBI.” And I go, “You’re assuming I’m Gary Sullivan.”
So they sent me down, and I’m waiting, and I remember thinking that the FBI was coming. I don’t really know. At that point, I couldn’t tell you the difference between everybody. And then five minutes go by and I’m sitting there going, ” What is going on? Do you guys have any idea what’s going?” They’re like, “We don’t know. We’re just grunts. We just do what we’re told.”
So suddenly this guy walks in, he’s probably in his early thirties, maybe. He walks in, gray suit, I think he looks like he’s FBI. He says, “Hey, I’m a detective with the…” I want to say Richland County, whatever, sheriff’s department or police department, whatever. And I was like, oh, okay. And he says, “Yeah, listen, we’ve got an issue. Wachovia, they want us to arrest you.” He said, ” They’re saying that you’ve got three mortgages on your house.” And I go, “Is that illegal?” And he looked at me and he went, “You know, to be honest, I don’t know.”
And I distinctly remember thinking, I’m walking out of here. All I have to do is convince this guy I haven’t done anything wrong. He’s already said he doesn’t know. So he gets on the phone with the head of Wachovia’s fraud department, and he’s saying, “This guy is running what’s called a shotgunning scam,” which is absolutely right.
So it’s possible that I wouldn’t have known it. It’s certain that I could have read those documents and not known. And he’s like, “That’s not true!” And he’s screaming. And so I go, yeah, listen. And he said, “Well, you’re taking it out all cash. Why are you taking all cash?” I said, “I don’t know if this might be illegal,” I said I don’t know. I said, “I mean, I work for a labor company-“
At one point, he’s screaming, “He’s committing fraud. We want him arrested.” He’s like, “I don’t know what to charge him with.” He’s like, “Hey, look. How did you even do this?” I go, “Look, I didn’t do this.” I said, “I came to Wachovia. I met with a loan officer.” I said, “I need a first mortgage. I need to pull out $100,000. I want to start buying houses.” He goes, “That’s right. You own another house here too, don’t you?” I said, “I do.” I said, “We’re putting a new roof on it. We’re going to build an addition. We’re putting in a pool. I’m buying one right down the street from that one.” Obviously, I’m pulling out money. I said, “So I told them I need $100,000.” They said, “That’s fine.” They said they could only get me $100,000 out for something about Fannie Mae guidelines, which is true.
So, then she said, “I can send you to a friend of mine who’s a loan officer. She can get you a second mortgage,” which she did. Then I told her, “She could only get me $100,000 or so, $190,000.” She said, “You should get an equity line of credit if you’re going to be doing renovating properties.” So she sent me to somebody and they got me an equity line of credit. I said, “I haven’t committed fraud.” I said, “I wouldn’t know how to commit fraud if you told me.” I said, “What sounds more reasonable? A guy that worked for a labor company ripped off a bunch of banks for over half a million dollars, or some loan officers got together and did something illegal?” I said, “There’s a problem at the bank.” He says, “I think you’ve got a problem at the bank.” This guy goes nuts.
While he’s screaming, “He needs to be arrested. This is fraud,” my loan officers have not done anything illegal. They wouldn’t do that. He says, “Look at his ID. His ID is fake. His ID starts with 000.” South Carolina ID start with 000. This guy’s in California. He has no idea. So, when he says that, the detective looks at my ID and he goes, “Listen.” He said, “This is a real ID. I ran this guy through NCIC.” He said, “This is Gary Sullivan.” I looked at him. I go, “Now I’m not Gary Sullivan.” I go, “Come on, bro. What are we doing here?” He goes, “I know Gary. I know.” He says, “I’m going to take him downtown. I’m going to talk to my whatever, lieutenant, whoever captain. I’m going to fill out a police report and I’ll let you know.” He hangs up. I get up. They’ve taken the handcuffs off. I stand up.
As we’re walking out with the detectives, as we’re all walking out, he goes, “Hey, you have an ID. Do you have a driver’s license?” I went, “I do, but it’s in Nevada.” He goes, “Oh, that’s right.” He goes, “You’re from Vegas.” He looks at the two deputies and they all grin. I think he ran me through NCIC, which means he ran a statewide criminal database, which means he thinks I’ve been arrested three times for prostitution in Vegas.
So, the deputy grabs the ID, walks outside, comes back. I have no idea if this homeless guy has a driver’s license in Nevada. I don’t know. He had nothing on him. He comes back and he goes, “Does he have a valid license?” He goes, “Yeah, it’s valid.” He hands it to him or he hands me the ID and he goes, “It’s valid.” He looked at me, he goes, “Yeah, well…” He said, “It says, he’s 5’11.” It was like 5’10, 5’11, and I’m clearly not 5’10 or 5’11. They all look at me and I go, “Fellas, with a good pair of shoes.” They all go, “Follow us, Gary.” I follow them back to the police station. Becky is calling me on the phone, screaming her head off.
Now, I’d always told Becky, “If I ever get arrested, immediately, go get me a lawyer. The lawyer will be able to get me out on bond,” because I’ll be arrested for something stupid. I said, “It’ll be something like trying to cash a fake check.” All my IDs are real, so it won’t be for a fake ID. So, my ID won’t be in question. Most police departments and sheriffs at that time did not run your fingerprints through AFIS, because they charge them for that. So, they don’t typically do it unless your identity is in question. Mine wouldn’t be. I have a valid driver’s license or a valid ID in that state. So, I go back. She’s screaming, she’s like, “Oh, my God. You don’t understand. I just checked the internet, the website. You are number one on the Secret Service’s most wanted list.”
I was like, “I got bigger problems right now. They just held me in the bank. I’m following them right now.” She was like, “Get on the interstate. Go, go.” I cannot go. The detective’s in front of me. The cops are behind me. They’re escorting me to the police. Listen. She’s like, “Oh, my God! Run! Run!” I go, “Look, not a NASCAR driver.” It’s a sports car, but it’s not going to outrun a radio or a helicopter. That’s not going to happen. I know it seems nice. I’m not that guy. I said, “Look, you don’t understand. I was in handcuffs 30 minutes ago. I just talked my way out of him. I’m going to get out of this.” I said, “The worst that’s happens is I’ll be arrested as Gary Sullivan. You can get me an attorney. He can get me out.”
She goes, “I’m not getting you an attorney. I’m not getting you out on bond. I’m not risking everything I’ve got for you,” because she has all the money. We’ve got $700,000, $800,000 at this point. By the way, she’s not even in North Carolina at this point. She’s relocated to Houston, Texas. Because when this scam fell apart, we were going to move to Texas. So, we were already moving there.
So I go and I wait in the hallway. In the hallway are a whole wall full of, on the corkboard, wanted posters, black and white, black and white, car thief, rapist, murderer, Secret Service’s most wanted. My face is right there. I’m like, “Holy Jesus.” Everything in me told me, “Run, bro.” Just fucking [inaudible 03:28:08] right now. Right now, just go. Your luck’s run out. There were so many, I didn’t think he was going to see it, but everything in me just said run. The problem is if you’ve ever been into a police station, you’re not getting out of it. Do you understand?
I said, “Bro, I own two houses here. I’m not going anywhere.” I said, “I’m telling you right now. Wachovia, they fucked up.” He’s like, “I believe you. I believe you.” Whatever he said, I hope they’re right. I’m sure you’re right. Okay. So, I get in my car. I leave. I go to two more banks, pull out more money, but at one point, I go into a bank and two of the cashiers practically slam into each other trying to get to the phone. I can tell something’s up. I go, “No, no, no, no. Something’s up.” So I get in my car back out. One of them even runs out and looks at the tag number. So, I drive. I get in the interstate. I go. Becky, of course, I’m sorry. I love you. I would’ve never done that. I was just scared. I understand.
I go, “Well, I was just looking at the flyer,” and she says, “I don’t want to do a scam here. I want to live here. This place is nice. I love it here.” I went, “Right, I understand.” I said “No, but I have to find an apartment.” She goes, “Oh, I’m just so disgusting. You can’t stand to spend even a couple weeks with me.” She goes just ballistic. She’s screaming at the top of her lungs, and I know she’s going to get me caught. She’s never going to get me out. She’s already told me that. So, we go back to the apartment, we go upstairs. I was so scared of this chick, bro. I was so scared. I remember I was going up in the elevator, and this girl gets on, clearly a stripper. I mean, drop dead, just wearing stripper clothes.
As soon she got on, Becky gave me that with the face. I’m like this. I’m staring in the corner and never look at the girl. I remember we get off the elevator, bing, it opens. I bolt off it. Becky bolts off the elevator, and I remember she squeals, “I bet you just love to fuck that tramp.” As the elevator doors are closing, she goes, “Hey!” I thought that was funny. So, I go to the apartment. We have a screaming match, kind of, tell her I want to split up the money. She tells me she’s not going to split the money.
I remember walking out. I put my cell phone on the counter and just walked out, went downstairs, got in the truck, and drove. When I got to Louisiana, I stopped at Baton Rouge. I mean, at some point, I stopped and I think I got a room or something. At one point, I know I stopped.
He made a lot of money and he made a lot of money for State Farm. He hired and trained a ton of agents, and he had one of the top performing agencies. So, he was worth a lot to them. What ends up happening is I get that phone that I was telling you about, and I called, talked to my mom. She’s crying. She’s like, “I love you so much. I just want to make sure you’re safe.” I end up calling Susan Barker, which was one of the brokers that worked for me at the time, call her, and I say, “Hey, what’s going on you?” She’s like, “Oh, Matt, what’s going on? FBI is everywhere. They’ve been talking to everybody.” It’s like a year and a half at this point.
She’s like, ” They come around every once in a while. Everybody’s gone in, everybody’s cooperating, everybody’s talking, everybody’s blaming you,” including her. So, as we’re talking, she said, “Look, the main FBI agent on the case, she told me if I ever spoke with you to have you call her.” I was like, “Yeah, I’m good.” So she goes, “Her name is Candace, and she wants you to call her.” She goes, “At least call her for God’s sakes. Maybe you could just turn yourself in. Maybe you can negotiate just like a couple years. If they’re not going to catch you, then maybe turn yourself in. Maybe it’ll help, at least hear her out.” I was like, “Okay, all right. You’re right.” Hang up the phone. I call Candace. She picks up the phone. I go, “Hey.” She goes, “Who’s this?” I go, “This is Matt Cox.”
She goes, “Hello, Mr. Cox. How are you?” I go, “I’m doing okay. How’s it going? I understand you want to talk to me.” She goes, “I do.” I said, “What can I do for you?” She says, “You can turn yourself in.” I go, “Well, that’s not going to happen.” I said, ” What else do you need?” She said, “I think that you should think about turning yourself in.” I said, “Why? Well, what am I looking at?” She goes, “Well, that’s not how it works. The way it works is you turn yourself in and we take that into consideration.” I said, “No, no, no, no.” I said, “That’s not good enough.” I said, “I’m not stupid enough to turn myself in and hope for the best.” So she says, “Well, let’s talk about this.” I said, “Well, what am I looking at?” She goes, “I don’t really know. I can’t tell you that.”
I said, “Well, then we don’t really have anything to talk about.” She goes, “Well, wait a second.” She said, “Hold on. Let me call the US attorney. Maybe we can work something out.” So I said, “Okay, I’ll call you back.” She said, “Well, give me your phone number, I’ll call you.” I went, “No, no, no.” I said, “I’ll call you.” I said, “I’m going to hang up the phone. I’m going to turn the phone off.” I said, “For all I know, you’re triangulating this phone call right now or something.” She goes, “Oh, give me a break.” She goes, “You’re not that important.” I remember thinking, “Who do you think you are? You’re just some little fraudster guy running around. You’re not a terrorist.” I almost was like, “Oh, okay. Here’s my number,” which she probably already had.
But I almost was like, “Okay, I’ll wait for your call and left my phone number.” I said, “No, you know what?” I said, “I’m going to hang up the phone. I’m going to turn it off anyway, and I’ll call you back.” All right. Whatever. I hang up. I turn off the phone. It turns out I found out later when I ordered the Freedom of Information Act. She actually immediately called the US Marshals, and they immediately called, took the phone number, and tracked back the phone and immediately had two marshals from Baton Rouge go immediately to the place where I had been.
So seven years, that seems like a lot. I kept saying, “Is that seven years for everything?” She goes, “Yeah, that’s for everything.” I was like, “That’s everything that happened in Atlanta and some stuff that you don’t know about?” She said, “Look, what’s important is you turn yourself in Tampa.” I was like, “Okay. Well, I’m closer to Atlanta. Why wouldn’t I turn myself in Atlanta?” She’s like, “Look, you don’t want to do that. You don’t want to do that.” Well, because the Secret Service would’ve gotten the credit if I’d walked in there, right? So I don’t know anything about rivalries and how they work at that time. I do now. So, we go back and forth, back and forth, and I continually ask her, “Does that include Atlanta and everything?” At some point, I realized like, “Oh, she’s just not answering.” So finally, I said, “Listen, you keep dodging this question.” She said, “All I can speak for is Tampa. So, if you come back to Tampa and you cooperate against everyone, seven years.” She wants me to cooperate against my ex-wife. I’m like, “I’m not going to do that.” I said, “My ex-wife didn’t do anything. She doesn’t know anything. She didn’t do anything.” Well, that’s not what I heard. She’s going on and on. I was like, “No, no.” I was like, “Oh, wow.” I was like, “So that’s just for…” She’s like, “That’s right.” I said, “All right, we’re done.” No, wait. I can call the Atlanta US attorney.
No, lady, I wouldn’t believe you if you told me water was wet. I don’t trust you. I hung up the phone, threw it out the window, and I ended up going to Charlotte, dropped off the U-Haul van. I would’ve actually brought it back to the dealer. It’s not like I evaded. I brought it back. So, I bring it back. I go to my old apartment in Downtown Charlotte, and I remember thinking I would be okay. I know by this point that they knew Michael Eckert’s name. They had the address in Charlotte. So, I know by this point, it’s been five, six days. So, I know they’ve tracked him back there. So, I figured if I could get my car, I’m fine. So, I go into the apartment complex, and it’s one of those four or five, six-story apartment. Those are parking things that stack up. So, I go into this parking garage thing. So, I go in.
I’m on the third floor or something. I look at my car and I get in my car. I remember as soon as I drove out of the parking garage, I was like, “I’m good.” So I can go ahead and pull across the street and stop at Starbucks. So, I stop at Starbucks. I walk into Starbucks. I order a Starbucks. I’m standing there waiting for the barista. I look over and it’s two people from the apartment complex staring at me. They’re whispering and pointing, and I remember thinking, “This is the fifth of the month.” I hadn’t paid my rent. I hadn’t been there. So, I thought that makes sense. Maybe I’m picturing an eviction notice or a three-day notice on my door or something. I’m like, “Okay.” Then one of them bolts out the back.
There’s a guy and a girl. The woman runs out the back. He’s standing there staring at me. I get my venti vanilla latte. I get my little frou frou drink. So, I got my frou frou drink. I walk out, I get into the car. He follows me. I get in the car. I set everything up. I put my seatbelt on. I’m okay. He’s standing there staring at me. I’m thinking, “Something’s wrong. What’s up?” I check to see. There’s no traffic. I’m good. I’m about to leave. He starts screaming, “He’s right here! He’s right here!” I look in the rear-view mirror. There’s two guys running towards the back of my car. I punch it and I take off.
Sounds dramatic. It wasn’t that dramatic. There was no cars. I knew there was no cars already pulling out. It wasn’t like a T. J. Hooker, where I jumped over, slid across the hood. They didn’t catch the car and hang onto the back. So, they’re running, and I, boom, hit it.
I’m wondering, “What am I going to do? How am I going to get a place to stay? I’m going to stay in a hotel. What am I doing?” I’m using an ID that the cops are looking for. So, as I’m driving, trying to find this big apartment complex, there’s a guy putting a sign in the front yard of a townhouse, several townhouses, probably in his 60s. I pull in, jump out of the car, and I said, “Hey, is this for rent?” He said, “Yes, it is.” I said, “Oh, okay.” Yeah. Can I see it? Sure. I go in, check it out, come back downstairs. It’s perfect. I said, “Listen, I work for a company, Manufacture Funding Group. Boom, hand thing. I said, “I’ve been in Europe for the last…” I forget what I said.
I said, “England, some little town outside of London, whatever, Dexter, London for the past five years. I don’t really have any credit.” But I said, “I can put down a double the security deposit or whatever you need. Here’s my business card.” He looked at me and he looked at my car and he goes, “You look like an honest young man.” He said, “I’ll take the first month’s rent and deposit.” He said, “Now, go get a lease right now.” I said, “Okay.” I said, “Oh, okay.” Filled out a lease right then, gave me the keys. Nice. Very trusting in that town.
I meet this girl, Amanda Gardner. We hit it off. Within a few months, she’s moved in. We move into a house in that area. I renovate a house. We move in there. I borrow three and a half million dollars and I’m buying houses. Now I’m buying houses, recording the value. I started all over. I borrow, whatever, three and a half million dollars. I meet Amanda, we move in together. We’re buying-
So I remember we’re at dinner one night. This is before she really knows who I am. And I said, “Hey.” I said, “Oh.” And she goes, “Oh, you had a…” She goes, “How’d that thing go, your refinance?” I go, “Oh, thank God you said that.” Boom. I said, “I need you to deposit this.” Give her a check for 20,000. She’s like, “I can go tomorrow and I can deposit it. And I…” And I’m like, “No, no.” I’m like, “Look, it’s fine. Just deposit.” She’s like, “As soon as it clears, I’ll get you a cashier’s check.” I was like, “No, just deposit it and keep it in your bank. It’s fine.” So she’s like, “What is going on?” So we have this conversation and I tell her, “Look, people are looking for me.” “Who?” “Law enforcement.” “Which ones?” “All of them.”
She’s like, “That doesn’t even… For what?” I go, “Mostly bank fraud.” And she’s like, “Well, how are they not finding you? People know you, your general contractor,” which I met four months before. This guy, six months before. This one, two months before. She’s like, “So and so, so and so, so…” And I’m like, “Right, right. Well,” I said, “Well…” She’s like, “They’ve got your name, they’ve got your…” I go, “Well, that’s identity theft.” And she was like, “What do you mean?” I said, well, “My name’s not… It’s not Joseph Carter.” “What is your name?” I go, “Look, don’t even worry about it. This is what’s happening. This is where I’m at,” and this has been months into the relationship. This is, I’d say, maybe a month or two in, but she was just too inquisitive and… Oh, I know what it was. She found like $40,000 in cash in my freezer one night.
That was another thing that happened. She went to get a Popsicle and she opened up the flip to get a Popsicle, and she opened the wrong one, and there was all cash. And she was like, in this conversation, she’s like, “The other day I opened up the Popsicle box and there’s cash,” And I’m like… So I kind of explain it, but I had a feeling she’s going to be okay with this.
There’s hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bank, in our bank account. Her bank account. I open up a corporation in her name, she’s opening up bank accounts, there’s websites. It’s a lot it and while this is happening, we start seeing a friend of hers. So this other girl comes in the picture, her name’s Trina, and Trina is semi-lesbian. So-
They grab her, they handcuff her, they bring her in, and the whole time… Now at that point, her name was Rebecca Hickey. She went by Becca. So she’s Rebecca Hickey, she’s got a Texas driver’s license, the whole thing. And they’re screaming at her, and they put her in the car, and they’re driving the whole way. The Secret Service agent told me, “45 minutes, she’s telling us, you’re losing your job, bro. You’re losing…” He’s like, “I couldn’t believe it. We’ve got pictures of her.” We’re like, “This is you.” She’s like, “That’s not me. Are you insane? Look at that chubby little thing.” [inaudible 04:02:43]-
Would not budge until they actually put her hand on the scanner and she goes, “Okay, I’m Rebecca Hauck. What do you need?” They’re like, “Where’s Matt Cox?” She’s like, “I have no idea. That fucker left me like a year ago.” So-
Well, they interviewed her. They’re interviewing multiple people, in my case, they’re putting together an episode. It’s going to be released in a month or so. So I’m terrified. At this point, I’ve been on the run three years, and I’m like… There’s lots of things I could care less about. Fortune, I don’t know anybody that reads Fortune. Bloomberg, come on, I’m hanging out with contractors and laborers and I’m not hanging out with these guys. So local news, who caress. Even local news channels, I don’t care. But Dateline, there weren’t 400 channels back then. So Dateline comes out, even if you don’t see it the first time, they’re going to rerun it in three months, or six months, or 10 years from now, they might rerun it again. My face is going to be on it, so I could be perfectly fine. Five years from now, in one day, the barista that I go to every other day looks at Dateline and goes, “Oh my god, that’s Mr. Johnson,” or, “That’s Mr. Thomas,” or whatever.
So the point is that I was like, “Yeah, I got to go. I can’t stay here. I got to get out of the country.” So I was going to go to… Well, we really started doing research and Amanda ended up saying, “Australia.” Australia, at the time, I don’t know how it is now, but at the time, if you went to Australia with a hundred thousand dollars and a business plan, you could become a permanent resident alien. You can’t vote, but you can buy property, you can open a business, but you can’t get a job. And they didn’t require a fingerprints. So there’s no criminal background check. Now, if you wanted to be a citizen, you have to get an FBI criminal background check. [inaudible 04:07:07]. No, I’m good. So I was like, “Wow, I can go there and start a business,” and I’m going to show up with a couple million.
So what we do is we start refinancing houses, we start pulling out money as quick as we can. I’m asking guys, laborers, guys that I work with, my general contractor, my real estate agent, “Hey man, can you cash this check for six grand?” Nobody says no, everybody, yeah, no problem, no problem. A few guys like, “Yeah, man, if you give you 10%,” yeah, I’ll give you 10%. So that’s happening. We’re pulling out cash. One day Amanda gives Trina a bunch of checks and asks her to cash them. That sparks a conversation like what was happening. She confides in… By this point, by the way, Amanda knows who I am.
So by this point, she’s actually came across the letter that I wrote to my parents when I left Tampa. So she’s figured out who I am. She tells Trina, “His name’s Matt Cox, Dateline’s coming out, we’re leaving. We got to get a bunch of cash.” And Trina goes, “Okay, I’ll cash the checks,” and what she does instead is she calls the Secret Service. They watch my house for three days, I come home one day, they pull the cars up… And they arrest me. So it’s a little bit longer than that, but that’s a short version of me getting arrested. And I’ve probably skipped over a whole [inaudible 04:08:43]-
So they bring me to Nashville, then they transport me to all over the place. I go on Con Air, they fly me to Oklahoma, they fly me to Atlanta, then I go to Atlanta. I’m placed in the U.S. Marshals, holdover. I get assigned an attorney, go in front of the judge, plead not guilty, meet with my attorney. You always plead not guilty. Whenever people say, “Can you believe that he pled not guilty?” Nobody walks in and pleads guilty. You plead not guilty while you figure out what you’re going to do. So I plead not guilty. There’s no bond. Obviously, they caught me. When they caught me I had four or five passports, so that’s no good. They charged me with bank fraud, conspiracy to commit bank fraud, wire fraud, mail fraud, passport fraud, conspiracy… What was the other? Aggravated identity theft, money laundering, use of a fraudulent passport. And there’s like 30 counts of this, 20 counts of this 20… But none of that matters.
Even if you just dropped all the counts to one count and stacked them, it’s like 150 something years, not that [inaudible 04:12:31].
So it ends up being 15 million. And then it’s down to what does he owe? They said 9.5, and I got it down to 6 million, which I’m good for. So what ends up happening is they’ve charged me with all these things and she’s like, “Okay, you can plead guilty and you can go with the sentencing guidelines, which is going to be like…” She’s like, “It depends.” She said, “It might be, whatever, 54 years.” She goes, “But if they run them concurrent or consecutive, depending on which one they do,” she said, ” Most likely it ends up being 30 years.” It’s no good. That’s not good. So we go back and forth, back and forth and try and figure out what I’m looking at. Now, as we go through the whole thing, she knocks off a bunch of stuff that they’re saying I did, enhancements. Because you’ll have a base level of, let’s say, a level eight. That should be, maybe a few years. But then they start adding on enhancements.
Did what he do, was it sophisticated? Yes. Okay, three levels for sophisticated means. Were there more than… How many victims were there, more than 50 victims? Yes. Okay, that’s six more levels. Okay, did he change the jurisdiction to evade detection? Yes. That’s four more levels. Okay, did he… They start adding, boom, boom. And when you start adding up all those levels, plus your criminal history, and I have a big criminal history because I was already on federal probation and I committed a new crime on federal probation. So that was another enhancement. And this case, so I’m in a category [inaudible 04:15:45], category two or three.
So they come back and they’re saying, I forget, it’s like 20… Well, they don’t come back right away, but she ends up saying, “You’re probably looking at 14 years.” Okay, that’s reasonable. That’s reasonable. And so when we get the PSI back, we eventually get what’s called a presentence report. They’re saying 26 years. Well, they really said 32 years. And I argued, and we got it down to 26 years and four months. That’s what it is. It’s 316 months. That’s how they do it, in months, because it doesn’t sting that much, I guess, if you say months.
It was in the name Walter Holcomb, and I went, “Did you call the bank?” He says, “Yeah, we called the bank.” I went, “Okay. Did anybody call you back?” And he said, “Well, no, we’ve left several messages.” I said, “Did you go to [inaudible 04:23:33] bank website?” He goes, “Yeah, I went to the website.” I said, “What’d you think?” And he went, “What do you mean? It was bank website.” I said, “Yeah, but it was professional, right? It was a professional website.” And he goes, “It’s a bank website.” And I go, “Yeah, but it was well done.” And he goes, “Oh god.” And I go, “Yeah, convincing.”
Well, I remember really for a split second there I was really embarrassed that they caught me. I was like, “Can’t believe this. You’re the Secret Service.” Anyway, I talked to them. As far as the Secret Service is concerned, there’s just not much I can tell them. It was me, Becky’s already told them everything. Amanda’s already told them everything. It’s not hard to track. When they raided my house, they’ve got boxes and boxes, so it’s laid out. It took forever. I still went through everything. I explained how I got the driver’s licenses, how I made the bank statements, how I made the birth certificates, the whole social engineering of figuring out what these little loopholes are. It’s like seven days total with these guys.
She insists that she can get the enhancements knocked down and if you actually read the enhancements, some of the enhancements, they didn’t apply to me. So she goes, and I believed her, and I think she made a valid argument. We go to sentencing. My mom’s there, she’s crying. My dad’s there, he’s looking at me like he’s disgusted. And crowd, there’s a whole bunch of reporters, the whole place is packed. And I plead guilty. Millie gets up, my lawyer gets up and she argues these enhancements. And every single time the judge is like, ” I disagree. Overruled.” And it’s like, boom, five more years. Bam, six more years. Bam. Because if she had won the enhancement she argued I would’ve got 14 years.
Now, keep in mind too, a month or two prior to this, the US attorney had called Millie and said, “Look, Dateline…” Dateline had already come out, by the way. Remember I was worried about Dateline coming out? Well, it had come out, but they wanted to do a follow-up because it came out like a month or two after I got arrested. And they were saying, “Hey, we want to recut it with interviews with him.” Well, Gail McKenzie, that’s the US attorney, she wants me to do that. And she says, “I’ll consider that substantial assistance.”
Now, when you cooperate with the government, they consider it substantial assistance, that’s what they call it. So I cooperate with you, it’s substantial assistance. She says, “If he’s interviewed by Dateline, we’ll consider it substantial assistance.” And Millie says, “You have to do it.”
But anyway, so I’m interviewed by them and they recut it and they air the video. So you said this was substantial assistance. And then the other thing is I was interviewed by the FBI and the Secret Service. Now my lawyer calls the prosecutor the night before sentencing and says, “Look, he was interviewed by Dateline and he was interviewed by the Secret Service and the FBI. And if you do that, you said you’d reduce his sentence, you’d consider it substantial assistance, and you would reduce his sentence. What are you going to ask for his sentence to be tomorrow at sentencing?” And she said, “We did consider it substantial assistance and it’s just not enough.” “What do you mean?” “Nobody was arrested.” “Yes, but what about Dateline?” “Millie, I don’t know what to tell you. It just wasn’t enough.”
Not that she’s not an amazing attorney. She’s an amazing attorney. The judge wanted to hammer me. He hammered me. Millie was a great attorney. She was always polite to me. And by the way, to this day, will answer my phone call. Most public defenders, you call them now, you call them after your sentence, they don’t answer your call. Great person.
At that time, there was a camp, which was a female camp. There was a low security prison for men, a medium security prison, and two penitentiaries. So I get moved to the medium. Now I’m moved to the medium, not because… That’s where real criminals go, right? I’m a soft, white boy. I’m no danger to anybody. I hurt someone’s feelings once, but other than that, I’m not going to be a problem. But if you have more than 20 years to serve, you have to go to a medium. So even though my security level said this guy should be in a camp, I had 20 years. You can’t go to a camp until you have less than 10.
So as soon as I am given 26 years… They knock off three, but you still have three years to get below 20, so they go to the medium. So I go to the medium and there are guys getting stabbed. The very first day, people are being stabbed. I get locked into… Go to my cell, meet my cellie. They scream lockdown. Somebody got stabbed in the rec yard. I remember I asked my cellie, which I’d met 20 minutes earlier, He’s like, “Hey, we’ve got to get in the cell.” I was like, “What’s going on?” “Somebody got stabbed in the yard.” And I go, “Somebody just got killed.” And he goes, “Nah, they just stabbed him up a little bit.” And I thought, “Oh my God, you’re in a place where they say stabbed him up a little bit. You’re not prepared for this, bro. You got to get out of here.” Anyway, I go to the medium. I’m there.
So they are like, “Right after count, I’m going to go to commissary. Somebody’s going to buy me an ice cream. I’m going to be eating an ice cream, walking on the rec yard the first day.” And it’s been months and months and months that I’ve been locked up in this county jail, and I’m thinking, “I want to go to prison. That sounds nice. I’d like an ice cream.”
Borrowing things and not returning them, that’s a problem. Running up debts, that’s a big problem. Gambling, gossiping, those are the problems. Those things get you hurt. Not being polite, be respectful. I’m super respectful. So I was respectful. Very quickly when I got to Coleman… There are continuing education courses. One of the courses is residential real estate. The guy that was running the residential real estate didn’t want to do it anymore because he was doing legal work and it just was taking too much time. So he came to me and said, “Listen, you just got here. You got a real estate background like nobody else does. Can you take over this class?” And I was like, “Sure.”
So I looked at his curriculum, I rewrote it a little bit, and I started teaching a residential real estate class. And at one point I was teaching two classes a semester or a quarter. And these guys loved it. They all think they’re going to get out and flip houses. So I started from the fundamentals. I talk about credit, how to borrow, hard money lenders, different types of… Everything.
It’s the first time in my life, this was funny. Not that I think I was really ever in a position for this to happen. This is really odd though. Probably the second or third class when guys are leaving and I’m having to check them off the roll, multiple guys are stopping and saying, “Yo, bro,” putting their hand out and shaking my hand and going, “Good class. It was a good class, bro.” Then I have guys coming to me, telling me, “Hey, what are you teaching these guys?” I go, “What do you mean?” He goes, “My cellie’s telling me he’s going to get out and make millions. ‘I’m taking Cox’s real estate class. I’m telling you I can do this. I’m going to be a millionaire.'” And it’s like this flipping houses, this is not…
But the truth is, flipping houses was… What I basically told these guys, especially the drug dealers, right? You’re a drug dealer and you were raised in the projects and you’re going back to the projects. This is the one industry that you will thrive at because you’re a hustler. You’re not afraid. A 45-year-old, divorced, white woman is not going into the Hood knocking on doors to try and flip houses, but you will. And you know everybody in the neighborhood, and you’ll knock on those doors, and you’ll hustle. And you’ve been told no before and you don’t care and you’re not scared, you’re not…
And there’s tons of money to be made in lower income areas. And then when I go through the whole thing and how you can leverage your credit to borrow money to get into the property and do the renovations with very little money down, and I do the whole thing, these guys, they loved it. And what that did for me was two things. One, if you got to the class, 40 guys show up for the class. And I say, “Look, if you don’t want to go, you don’t want to be here, you just want it because your counselor’s making you get a certificate. You don’t want to be here, that’s fine. Bring me two coffees and two creamers from commissary and I’ll fill out all your paperwork and you’ll pass. You’ll get a certificate. I don’t have to see you again.” I have full of coffee and creamer because at least 10 or 15 didn’t want to be there. The other guys seriously wanted to be there. And I don’t want those guys to be there anyway, they’re going to be a problem. So the other guys are serious about it, and some of these guys sat through the class two, three, four times. Some of these guys got out and sent me money, which is a huge sign of respect, by the way. Because they don’t owe me anything. But I did that and I taught GED because you have to do something for money.
And I met a bunch of cool guys and I was hanging out and I was doing well. And after about three years, they transferred me to the low security prison. At this point the FBI starts showing up, asking me questions. They asked me questions about the politician I bribed, asked me questions about him. Statute of limitations was up and they were trying to tie him into the bank fraud. Because his name was Kevin White, and one of my guys’ name was Michael Kevin White, and so they were trying to tie him in. “Did he know about it? Because if he knew about it, statute of limitations is 10 years. We could…” “No, he didn’t know.” Should’ve thrown him in there. Because a couple a years later, he gets indicted. He ends up going to jail anyway.
So I immediately get taken into custody and they put me in the shoe, the hole, for my own protection, and I’m there for like 45 days. Then after 45 days, they’re like, “Cox, what do you want us to do? You want us to ship you?” I was like, “No, put me back on the compound.” I’m like, “Half the guys here cooperated.” And he goes, “Yeah, it’s more than half.” He said, “But this is the guy from SIS,” which is their internal security.
So at one point, this one guy comes to me. I’m walking the yard probably two days later, after I get back on the compound, I’m walking. Guy comes to me, he has a goatee, and it comes down here, and he’s got a little skull thing he had made, whittled out of wood or something, and definitely looks scary. So I’m walking and he stopped, he goes, “Hey, Cox.” I’ve never talked to these guys. I had been there for a year or so and never talked to any of these guys. They’re all like bikers and Aryan Brotherhood. And so I’m like, “Yeah, what’s up?” He said, “Bubba.” Bubba’s their leader. He goes, “Bubba told me to tell you not to walk the yard. He don’t want to see you out in the yard.” And I went, “Okay.” I said, “Well, I’m going to walk the yard tonight.” I said, “And if I get the shit kicked out of me, then I get the shit kicked out of me, but-“
And it’s not that guys aren’t getting stabbed, but they’ve got it coming. I didn’t tell on anybody here. I didn’t do anything. It’s not that on other yards I might not have gotten smashed, but I didn’t get smashed. And I’d been there a while and I taught the real estate class, and everybody wanted to take real estate. So I think that insulated me to a degree. I also had made a few friends there, and I think they were probably also putting out the words like, “Bro, cut this guy a break.”
So I’m walking across and I tell the guy, I said, “Look man,” and I wasn’t rude to him. He wasn’t even rude to me, really. He said, “Don’t walk the yard anymore. Bubba doesn’t want you walking the yard.” I said, “Well, listen, I’m going to go to chow and then I’m going to go out there tonight and walk the yard, and if I get smashed, I get smashed.” I go, “Because I got 26 years and I cannot walk around for the next 26 years, not going on the yard.” I said, “So I’m going to be there, and if that happens, then that happens.” And he looked at me and he goes, “Man, I don’t give a fuck what you do. That’s what Bubba told me to tell you.” He said, “I told you.” And he goes, “I don’t give a shit what you do,” and he walked off.
I went out there that night with a buddy of mine named Zach, a guy named John Gordon, with my cousin and a couple of his buddies. We walked the track for about an hour. Bubba and a group of his guys stood there and looked at us, and as we walked, probably closest we got to them was 30 or 40 feet. That went on for 30 minutes and then they broke up and went their separate ways.
There was a couple of times where I would go to the chow hall and I would go and I’d be sitting at a table and Bubba would walk up and tell the other guys at the table, “I want to let you guys know you’re…” He didn’t even call me a snitch. He said, “You’re sitting with a cooperating witness.” He said, “If that’s how you want to roll,” he said, “You ain’t going to be rolling with us if there’s any trouble.” And then they all looked at me and they got their plate and they moved off. He didn’t tell me to move. And he could’ve walked up and said, “This is a snitch motherfucker.” He didn’t do that. Bubba was very respectful. As respectful as you could be [inaudible 04:52:48].
And here’s the thing. At some point there, I ended up getting… Well, the FBI started showing up there at the prison, questioning me about my files in Tampa, that [inaudible 04:53:33] of the 12 guys that were indicted?
So of course, a year later, she shows up after nothing happens and they’ve dropped the case. She shows up and she tells me what happened, and he’s not going to do it. And I go, “Do you remember that you…” She goes, “I got the letter right now.” Gave me the letter. She was like, “That’s it.” Great letter. It says, “Mr. Cox has worked, blah, blah, blah. He’s done this, this, this,” great. And even said, “He deserves a reduction in my opinion, blah, blah, blah.” But nobody was arrested.
So I call my public defender, I call Millie, I explain it to her, and she starts crying and she’s sorry. And, “Well, what are we going to do?” “Well, there’s nothing you can do. You’re time barred.” You have one year to file a 2255, which is to say that your lawyer is ineffective or that the court has made a mistake in some way. And it had been over a year, it had been years. It’d been like four years. And she’s like, “Yeah, I mean, there’s nothing you can do.” And she’s in tears, and I feel like I’m done. At that point I’m done.
And what I do is I start writing a book. I write my memoir. And this is not a shameless plug for my memoir, by the way, which is amazing. Just saying. But so what happens is I actually write it. I write it, and then I have to rewrite it because I don’t really know what I’m doing. And I’ve been reading true crime and that sort of thing. And I’ve always liked true crime. I get a literary agent, comes to see me, tells me I have to rewrite some stuff. We rewrite it. As I’m finishing up my memoir, there’s a guy that comes on the compound, and his name is Efraim Diveroli. Efraim Diveroli and his business partner, a guy named David Packouz, were selling munitions, AK-47 rounds.
And I’m like, “You don’t want to write a memoir?” And he’s like, “Yeah, man. It was sold to the guys from the Hangover movie.” And I was like, “So the guys from the Hangover movie are going to make a movie about you?” I said, “You understand, they’re going to call it like, dude, where’s my hand grenade? And you’re going to be Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High. You’re going to be a joke, all because you don’t want to write a memoir and get your version out there.” And he was like, “Holy shit”. So I ended up writing an outline for him. We worked together, and then he asked that, “Can I read your book?” And I was like, “Sure.” And I give it to him and he reads it and he comes back and he said, “Bro, this is the best thing I’ve ever read in my life.” And to be honest, I later found out he’d read about three books in his entire life, but still it was very nice…
And everybody would sit there and be like, “Okay, Frank, I’ll get to this and I’ll get…” It was insane. It was the most insane… He was basically running a medium-sized law firm from inside of the prison. He was training people. He taught the legal research class and was training people on how to do legal research in prison, how to put together motions, how to fight their cases, how to do the research, how to type them up. Everything. It’s like a law school. He’s teaching these guys… Listen, they made such a mistake locking this guy up.
Jimmy just got 10 years knocked off his sentence. He’s going to halfway house next month. Tom got an immediate release. Frank’s walking people up to R&D, shaking their hands. Guys are walking up to him in tears, crying. And so crazy or not, what choice do I have? I called three different lawyers on the street and said, “This is what happened. What can I do? What can I do?” They told me to do this and this and this, and I worked with them, and then they decided not to proceed, and what can I do? And they said, “You’re hit, bro. There’s nothing you can do. In the 11th circuit, you cannot force them to file a reduction on your behalf. You cannot do it. It’s impossible. You’re hit. You’re done. It’s over. I’d love to take your money, Mr. Cox, but it’s not going to happen. I’m not just going to take your money. You’re going to lose.” Three different lawyers.
I talked to Irti’s lawyer, told me, “Bro, it’s not going to happen. It’s over.” So my buddy says, “Go talk to Frank.” I said, “Well, why wouldn’t I? I got nothing else to lose.” So I go talk to Frank. He actually has a little manic moment, that little thing that I just showed you. That’s exactly what he said the first time I talked to him.
It airs. Millie goes to the government, says, “Look, reduce the sentence.” They go, “No, Millie, it’s not enough.” Then they come to me and they ask me to write an ethics and fraud course. I write an ethics and fraud course. The guy I write the course with that flies up to Atlanta. He talks with… I think he drove up, but he goes up to Atlanta, he talks with a US attorney, talks to Millie. She insists if he does this, I will reduce his sentence. I will definitely consider this. Definitely consider. And then we do it. It’s being used all over the nation. Not enough. At this point, I go to Frank. I tell Frank what’s happening. Frank says, “Yeah…” He goes, “Every time they asked you to do something, it reset the time bar. You have a year from that time to file a 2255.”
Now, he insists that that was a viable argument. Nobody else does. But he said, “I’m not going to let them do this. I’m going to take care of this. I’m going to get your sentence reduced.” Okay. “Emperor. Okay, Emperor.” So he was a character. Anyway, so he files a 2255. The government comes back, they say, “He’s time-barred.” Frank comes back, they answer his motion, he files a retort. It just goes back and forth. This goes [inaudible 05:07:46] for six months to a year. And at some point, I go to mail call, and they call my name and they hand me this thing, and I open it up, and it says the government’s filed a motion for a stay so that they want the court to appoint me a lawyer and to discuss filing a Rule 35, reducing my sentence. And I’m like, I read it, but I couldn’t even understand.
I don’t understand. So I mean, I rushed to go find Frank. I show it to Frank and he says, “Yeah, they’re staying it. They’re going to send you a lawyer and you’re going to negotiate for how much they’re going to reduce your sentence.” He says, “It’s perfect.” So they fly this woman down, her name was Esther Panitch. She flies down, comes to the visitation room, they bring me there, the lawyer’s room, whatever they call it. And so we’re sitting there, and I remember we’re talking, and she says, “Listen, your motion, your 2255 is written well, but honestly, you don’t have much of a prayer, and they’re offering you a one-level reduction, which is 30 months.” And I went, “Oh, that’s not enough.” And she said, “Well, I don’t know what to tell you.” She said, “They’re willing to bring you back.” And I was like, “Well…” I mean, I don’t know.
I go to talk to Frank. Frank said, I deserve this many levels, and we’re going back and forth. She says, “Who’s Frank?” And I go, “Frank’s the guy that’s doing all my legal work.” She goes, “He didn’t write all this.” And I was like, [inaudible 05:09:20], “No, who wrote?” And I explained it to her and she’s like, “He’s an inmate?” And I was like, “Yeah.” And she says, “Why is he here?” And I tell her, “Well, he stole a bunch of money from the federal government because he’s trying to take over the world.” So I tell her that whole thing. And she’s like, “You’re letting a mentally incompetent person do your legal work.” And I was like, “Yeah, because all the competent attorneys wouldn’t do it. They said, I didn’t have a prayer. Your people said, I didn’t have a prayer.” And I said, “Frank said he could get this done.”
And she’s like, “Well, I mean, I don’t even know why they’re offering you one-level.” I was like, “Well, Frank said.” And I’m like, Frank this, Frank that [inaudible 05:10:00] ended up saying, she’s like, “You’re taking advice from a legally, an incompetent person.” I said, “Yeah.” She said, “You really don’t have a prayer.” I said, “Then why are you here?” I said, “If they could crush me so easily, why are you here?” I said, “They’re giving me one-level. Let me talk to Frank. I’ll let you know what we’re going to do.” So I leave. I call her a couple of days later, I tell her… I talked to Frank. Frank said, “Go back. Go back and argue for more.” He said, “I think the judge is going to give you more. He’s going to give you at least between whatever he said, six or seven levels or something.”
So I get moved all the way back to Atlanta. The FBI agent comes to talk on my behalf, the guy… Multiple people show up to talk on my behalf. They say… Millie, who I filed the 2255 against. So I’m basically saying, “You’re ineffective, you’re incompetent.” But she knows the game. She’s like, “I get it.” She gets on the stand and testifies for me. So the judge goes, “Listen…” I think we were asking for nine levels or something outrageous. Prosecutor starts arguing for one-level. And he said, “Listen, one-level is not nearly enough for what Mr. Cox has done.” He said, “Mr. Cox, I know you’re arguing for nine levels off. You’re [inaudible 05:11:22].” He goes, “That was never going to happen.” I was like… It felt like I got slapped. He said, three levels. “I’m going to go with three levels.” He goes, “Which is seven years.” Which he said, “For somebody who has no arrest associated with his case.” He said, “I think it’s pretty good,” and that’s [inaudible 05:11:44] judgment and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And he hammered, puts the gavel down and walks off and that’s it. It’s over, I get seven years. I was hoping for more. So I get moved back to Coleman. I get moved back to Coleman, and I go up to Frank and I said, “Frank, I got seven years off.” And he is like, ” I know.” I said, “And I don’t mean to sound unappreciative.” I said, “I was hoping for more.” He goes, “I was too.” He said, “It looks like we’re going to have to eat this elephant one spoonful at a time.” And he goes, “Something will come out. Something’s going to happen.”
He said, “Keep your ears open. Something will happen.” And I said, “Okay.” And honestly, by that point, I’d done eight years, and I remember if I got a year off for the drug program and good time and this, I had about eight years left to go or something, nine years left. And I was like, “I can do that. I’ll write.” I’d been writing. By that point, I’d actually written a story. I got a book deal for Deboroli, and I ended up writing a synopsis of a guy’s story. And I got him in Rolling Stone Magazine. And I got a book deal for that. I got an advance. It was thirty-five hundred bucks for being in prison, a prisoner to get a thirty-five hundred in advance is like, “I’m a millionaire.” That’s a lot of money. And then we optioned the film rights.
Basically the synopsis that I wrote for this reporter, journalist for Rolling Stone, he goes to Rolling Stone with what I wrote and gives it to them, and they okay it, they say, “Yeah, this is great. We want you to write an article based on this.” He writes the article. He tells me that the article will be from his name Guy Lawson, Douglas Dodd, which is the name of the kid I wrote the memoir about, and Matthew Cox. A couple of weeks before the article is going to be published, he tells me Rolling Stone doesn’t want my name on the article because I’m in federal prison and it doesn’t look good, but don’t worry, he’s going to put my name in the article. And that’s just as good. And I argue it’s not just as good. It’s not. I’m like, “I would be a writer for Rolling Stone Magazine. You understand, I’m trying to come up with something here that I can rebuild my life as a true crime writer. That’s no good.”
And that wasn’t so bad. That wasn’t the worst. The worst of it was 90% of the article that he published was taken directly from what I sent him. I mean, sick to my stomach, bro, just sick over it. But they option the life rights for that. And I got a piece of that. So there’s like $7,000. I get a cheque for that. So I’m thrilled I can keep writing. Because you have to understand, writing on the computer there they charge you. So I start… Oh, they charge you for phone calls, writing… Every single thing costs money. So I start writing all these guys’ stories. I start writing books. I went back to Atlanta, got seven years knocked off my sentence, come back, and I’m walking around the compound. Now, there was a guy that was there named Ron Wilson. Ron Wilson ran… If you look in the newspaper, it says it’s like a hundred million dollars Ponzi scheme.
But really it was fifty-seven million dollars. He had lost fifty-seven million. So it says a hundred. They always exaggerate. Because fifty-seven is not enough. Ron ended up getting nineteen and a half years. Ron was an old conman, early sixties, sixty-two, sixty-one, I don’t know. And I liked Ron. So we’re walking around the compound and he’s like, “So what are you going to do? I mean, you eight or nine more years to go?” And I was like, “Yeah, I’m going to keep writing and when I get out of here, maybe I’ll have a huge body of work and maybe I’ll be to sell it, or maybe I’ll be able to option some more stuff. And if I could get together with Rolling Stone or get with some of these magazines, I could start writing for them and I could option those. Maybe I could walk out of here with something.” “Right, right, right.” So Ron was… Who’d only been locked up like a year or so. He was cooperating, with the Secret Service in his case, against some of his co-defendants.
So he’s already been debriefed and he’s cooperating. He’s actually thinking he might get brought back to have to testify at a trial. We’re talking and we’re walking, and he keeps saying, “Even if they charge those guys, and even if this happens, they’re not going to reduce my sentence. They’re not going to cut my sentence.” First of all, well, probably because you stole a bunch of money from pension funds and churches that didn’t help your case. But I don’t say that. So I say, “Oh, they have to, bro. They’ll have to, if you cooperate, they’re going to have to. And if they don’t, we’ll have Frank file a 2255.” And he’s like, “Ah, that crazy mother…” So he says, “Okay.” He’s like, “Yeah, yeah, you don’t understand. You don’t understand.” So this goes on for months. And I’m like, “What is the problem?” And he says, “They think I hid Ponzi scheme money.”
And he’d actually dug up like five or six million dollars in Ponzi scheme proceeds that he dug. He buried in these… Literally buried in aluminum ammunition canisters. Super interesting guy. So he actually went and dug them up and gave them to him. And I’m like, “Well, you gave them all the money. You didn’t hide anything. Relax, it’s not a big deal. They’re not going to find anything, don’t worry about it.” And so he mentions it a couple of weeks later, a couple of weeks later, and then one day I go, “Bro, why do you keep bringing this up? What are you concerned about? It’s not going to happen.”
And he said, “Can I trust you?” And I went, “Probably not.” And he goes, “I did hide some money.” I was like, “Okay.” I said, “Did you bury it in a can somewhere?” And he’s like, “No, I gave my wife 150,000 in cash.” I said, “Okay, well, she’s not going to say anything she’s using [inaudible 05:18:20].” He said, “No, you don’t understand. Since then she found out I was having an affair and we’re going to get a divorce. And she hates me. And I think she’ll turn that money in just to make sure that I don’t get a reduction.” Because if you lie to the FBI, it doesn’t matter what you’ve done for them, they won’t give you anything. And so, I’m sorry, the Secret Service or… Anyway, he has clearly lied to the Secret Service at this point.
If she goes and says, “This is what he gave me.” So I was like, “Oh, wow.” And he’s like, “My brother’s holding maybe 30,000 for me.” And at that moment I was like, “Wow, this poor guy.” No, that’s not what I thought at all. What I thought was, “Is that enough to get me a sentence reduction?” And I went and I sat there, and you know what I thought? I thought, “No.” I thought, “That’s not enough. That’s not enough. It’s nothing. That’s not even $200,000.” And they didn’t want to give me a reduction. My prosecutor was pissed that I got seven years off. She wanted me to get 30 months. She’s not going to give me anything. It’s up to her. She’s not going to do it. So I go, I lay down, I go to bed. A month later, I’m on the phone with my lawyer.
I had written, I remember wrote, I had a manuscript from my book, and I wanted to put some of the stuff that was said in my sentencing in the book. So I was trying to get my lawyer to mail me my transcripts, and she hadn’t done it. So I called her and I said, “Listen, you said you were going to…” She’s like, “Oh God, man, I’m so sorry. I’m so busy. I’ll do it. I’ll do it.” And then she went… This is Esther. She goes, “So what else is going on in there?” And she never wanted to talk to me, when they were paying her, she didn’t want to talk to me. And I was like, “What do you mean nothing? I just need my transcription.” She’s like, “Nothing’s happening. There’s nothing you want to talk about.” And I was like, “And I went, you know what? There’s something weird happened there. Listen to this.” And I told her about Ron Wilson, and she goes, “Hold on.” And she looks him up on the computer. She goes, “Oh wow. This is a bad guy. This is a bad guy.”
“And he told you… Then you know where it [inaudible 05:20:36]” “Absolutely. And I can tell you exactly.” And she goes, “Okay, okay, okay.” She goes, “Let me look into this.” I go, “Okay.” So a week later, a CO comes to me and goes, “Hey, Cox.” And I go, “What’s up?” He goes, “Listen, at the next move…” Because they have controlled moves. All the doors are locked, and they open them up for 10 minutes. So you can run to the chow hall or you can run to the… You can’t run though. They have no running on the compound, but you can walk fast to the rec yard or the library, whatever. He says. “The next move go to SIS.” So I go to SIS on the next move. But I was used to going there, by the way, because I was constantly ordering Freedom of Information acts. And so I’d order… You’re an inmate and I’m writing a story for you. And I’d order it and they’d send it to me.
And then they would catch it and they’d be like, “Why are you getting Lex’s information?” So they’d call me down there and I go, “No, I ordered it for him and I’m writing a story, and I’d already been in Rolling Stone and everything.” They’re like, “What’s the story?” And I tell him the story. The guy’s like, “That’s a pretty good story here.” And so I go down there, but this is different. This is the guy answers the door and this guy, they call him Bulldog. He was a real asshole. He was a lieutenant at SIS. And he’s like, “Get in here, Cox, sit down.” And he dials the phone. He goes, “Here, you got to talk to this guy.” And I’m like, “What?” And I pick up the phone, I’m like, “Hello?” And the guy goes, “Hey, this is Agent Griffin with the Secret Service. I understand you know where Ron Wilson has hidden Ponzi scheme money. I want something in writing.”
So I start doing that and they go, “Okay.” Then I get his email address and we start emailing each other back and forth, and he ends up getting a letter from the US attorney in South Carolina that says they will consider it substantial assistance if they make arrests or recover a substantial amount of money. That’s the best I’m going to get [inaudible 05:22:28] consider. So I start talking to this guy and he starts asking me questions about Ron Wilson. Like, “Hey, ask him this, ask him this.” So I’m like, “Bro, I got to work that into a conversation. That’s an odd thing to ask.” So this goes on for six months. So I’m asking questions and I’m typing up little reports, and I’m a prison snitch now. So I’m not just cooperate now [inaudible 05:22:50] prison. So I’ve moved down. I’ve moved down actually from being just a cooperating witness or…
The next day, the brother walks in and gives them $150,000 in cash. And so the next day the wife comes back and gives him $250,000 in cash and a bunch of silver, like gold, bullion and silver, because his Ponzi scheme was based off of silver. He was going to invest in silver for you. So half a million dollars, they turn over half a million. I’m like, “Half a million dollars? I thought she was a hundred thousand or something.” And he was like, “I know. I didn’t know I could trust you.” I’m like, “Ron, what are you doing? I thought we were…” So I’ll tell you something just for the icing on the cake by the way, the icing on the cake. Let me explain one more thing.
So if somebody cooperates with the federal government, let’s say I get arrested and they go, “You want to help yourself?” And you go, “Yeah, okay, look, Jimmy is a… He lives next to me and he’s running a meth house, a meth lab, whatever.” And they go and they raid Jimmy and he gets arrested. You’re going to get something off of that. Not a lot, but you’re going to get something. And they could just say, “We were going to bust him anyway. We were already onto him.” Now, the next level would be you wear a wire.
So I wore a wire and I was in danger. Now keep in mind, I’m asking this guy questions inside federal prison. I’m in danger. So whatever, that’s the next level. You’re taking an active participation in the investigation. And the third level would be you actually get on the stand and you cooperate and you testify there’s no better cooperation than that. So when Wilson says to me, “They’re going to move me back to South Carolina, they’ve indicted me. They’ve charged me, what do you think I should do?” And I go, “I think you should go to trial, because I know they’ll have to call me as a witness.” Just to let you know, I don’t want to walk out of here and have you feeling like, “Hey, there’s some good to this guy.” So I’m ready to gut Wilson like a fish.
So they sent him home. So he ended up doing… So he didn’t even serve the six months. He didn’t even serve the original sentence, whatever. Not that I care. So I’m just saying, if it makes you feel like, “Poor Ron.” It’s okay. So his wife got a hundred hours of community service or something, or sixty hours, and I think his brother got six months papers. They got charged with obstruction of justice and neither one of them… It was six months probation and community service, nothing. So when I turn around, I’m waiting for my reduction, waiting, waiting. After about 90 days after this guy gets sentenced, maybe six months, I send a letter, “Hey, what’s going on to the prosecuting, to my prosecutor?” The prosecutor of both districts, no response. Then I go to Frank, I explain to Frank, and Frank has known what’s going on the whole time. And Frank goes, “Okay, I’m going to file a 2255.” So we file a 2255, government comes back and first thing they say is, “Your Honor, we don’t know about any cooperation. We’ve never heard about any cooperation.”
So of course then we submit the letter that we have, the judge comes back and the judge ends up saying it’s a little complicated, but he ends up saying, “Look, I don’t have jurisdiction to hear this because you may be time-barred, but I’m going to let the appeals court hear it.” Now, typically, you have to get what’s called a right of a certification to appeal. You have to make sure that you actually have a case. He says, “I’m waiving the cert and I’m waiving the $500 fee to file with them.” And he basically expedites it for me, which is a subtle way of telling the prosecutor, “I think he’s got something and I’m sending it up there.” And the way he writes his motion, it’s basically saying, “I don’t have the jurisdiction to do anything, but they do. They need to do it. And I’m paving the way. You don’t have to pay any money and you don’t need that cert.” So the prosecution immediately comes back, they file a one level reduction, and…
They fly down a lawyer, Leanne Weber. So she comes, and she comes and sees me and she says, “Listen, I see that you want to go back and fight this and this, but honestly I don’t think you’re going to get anything more than one level. I talked to the prosecution. They said they’ll give you…” Well, she said, “I can work on trying to get you two levels, but you don’t have much of a prayer. You’re going to get crushed.” And I said, “Well, then why are you here? If they can crush me so easy, why don’t they do it? Why would they pay you…” They pay them like 12 grand or something just to fly down and all your expenses, “… to negotiate for me? Why not crush me?” And she’s like, “I don’t know.”
I said, “Well, Frank said four levels.” And she’s like, “Who’s Frank?” I go, “Frank’s the guy that wrote all this.” And she’s like, “Oh, is he an attorney? Is he in here?” And I’m like, “Yeah, he’s in here.” She’s like, “Why is he in here?” And I tell her, you’ve taken over the world. And she says, “That’s the strangest thing I’ve ever heard in my entire life.” And I said, “I understand. But Frank said…” And she’s like, “You’re listening to an incompetent…” I’m like, “Yeah, absolutely. And Frank said we want four levels. He said for me to tell you we want four levels.” She goes, “Okay.”
She leaves, she goes to the US attorney. We argue. Two levels. They come back and say two levels. No. We go back and forth. We start filing motions saying we want to go back, we want a hearing. We want to bring back all the FBI agents, the Secret Service agents. And she’s like, “What? Do you want to turn this into a circus?” “Exactly what I want to do. I’m going to turn it into the biggest circus. Because I’ve already got one level.” They come back in one day, she says, “Listen, three levels is the best you’re going to get.” She said, “So I guess you’ll be moved back here. We’ll go to the hearing.” I said, “No, no, no, I’ll take three levels.” And she goes, “What are you talking?” She said, “You said four levels. You said Frank wouldn’t let you take anything less than four.” I said, “No. Frank said to tell you four. I was happy with three. I wanted you to argue for four. I’m good with three. I’m out of here in a year.”
And I don’t want to be moved back. I don’t want to have to get on that bus. Do you know what it’s like to be moved? It’s horrible. So I said, “I just want the three levels.” Then we argue about the wording for about two, three months, and then they file it. And then I get five years knocked off my sentence because three levels at the level I was at now, isn’t seven years. Every level you get a little less time, so I get five years off. So now I’ve got 12 years knocked off my sentence.
At this point I maybe have a year and a half to go, and that’s doable. So I was super, super happy. And I’m going to tell you something, and I’m sorry bro, but every time I think about it and I just feel like I have to say it, Frank [inaudible 05:33:28] insane, but I didn’t have a fucking prayer without that guy. And as crazy as he is, as much of a pain in the ass as he was, I could never repay him, bro. I shouldn’t be here. I’m supposed to be in prison right now. My out date was 2030 without that guy.
So when I was leaving, I remember my mom showed up and my brother showed up and they picked me up, and we were driving off. I remember looking back at the prison and my brother said, “I’ll bet you’re glad to leave that behind you,” and I started crying. It’s like nobody talked. It was so uncomfortable. I started crying and it wasn’t because I was like, “Oh, it’s over.” It was like survivor’s guilt. Like I was leaving all of my friends and I felt so bad that I was leaving them.
But I went to the halfway house and I had four… When I was getting out, I remember joking that I had exhausted my Trulincs account, my inmate account, I’d exhausted it. I had nothing, I had 18 cents, I couldn’t even figure out how to spend it. And they give you a debit card when you leave, and they charge you every time you use the card. I don’t even have enough to spend the 18 cents because the charge is like $3. So I was like, “Yeah, yeah.” I was like, “I wonder if they’ll still giving my debit card.” And I’m laughing. Everybody’s like, “What are you going to eat? What are you this, what are that?” And my one buddy looked at me, he was like, ‘you can’t go to the halfway house with nothing, bro.” And I was like, “No, it’s cool.” I said, “No, it’s cool.” I said, “No, it’s cool.” I said, “I want to start at the bottom. I’ve got that coming. I got working at McDonald’s coming, so I’m going to work at McDonald’s. I don’t give a fuck.” And he was like, “Well, I think you’re going to need to buy clothes.” I said, “Oh,” I said, “It’s at the Goodwill. They give you a bunch of crap if you don’t have anything, if you’re indigent.” And I said, “I’m indigent.”
And a couple of days before I’m leaving, $400 ends up on my account. And I was like, “What the fuck?” And it was from a buddy of mine. And I go to him, my buddy Tommy, and I was like, “Tommy,” I go, “Did you put 400 on my account?” And he said, “I can’t let you go with nothing, bro.” So I get to the halfway house and I go to Walmart and I buy $300 worth of clothes at Walmart. I’ve never been in a Walmart. I go to Super Walmart, it’s huge. I go there and I buy a bunch of clothes and I buy about 300 bucks worth of clothes, and I still have some of the blue jeans. To this day I still wear some of the blue jeans.
I stayed in the halfway house and I called a buddy of mine named Trion, Trion Colta, and he owns a gym. And I grew up with him. His whole family, they own a bunch of gyms. And I called him and I said, “Hey man, I’m in the halfway house.” And he was like, “Hey, what’s going on?” He said, “Can I do anything for you?” And I was like, “I mean, I need a job.” I didn’t think he was going to give me a job. He goes, “Bro, you’re hired. I’ll give you a job.” He said, “Minimum wage.” I said, “That’s fine. If I can stay out of here…” You can work 80 hours a week. I was like, “If I can just stay out of here 80 hours and you pay me minimum wage.” He goes, “Oh, hell yeah, perfect.”
So I’m at the gym and I got free reign. So I’m playing on my computer, goofing off all day. And my buddy Pete, who’s still locked up, he’s texting me and calling me, and he’s like… Not texting me, he’s emailing me through the Corrlinks system. And he calls me periodically, he’s like, “Have you started a website?” Because one of the things I was going to do when I got out was I was going to start a website with all these stories that I’d written. And I was like, “No, Pete, I can’t. I don’t have a computer.” He’s like, “Well, how much is a computer?” I was like, “I don’t know, they’re like 300 bucks.”
I said, “I could probably get a used Apple MacBook, like a five-year-old MacBook or something, I don’t know, for $350, whatever.” But he was like, “Okay, so that’s all you need, 300 bucks.” I go, “No, no, no, no, no,” I said, “It’s not 300 bucks, bro. It’s 300 bucks plus it’s getting a WordPress website,” which I said costs money. “Plus it’s hiring somebody to help me figure it out because I’m inept. I don’t know how anything works.” So he, “Okay.” And I said, “Plus, I need this. Plus I need a bunch of stuff. I need $600 for this. I need 300 for this. I need 500 for this. I need a thousand dollars for this.”
And he goes, “Okay.” He said, “I’ll get you… Okay, I got it.” So he reads off a list, he goes, “I got you.” Pete doesn’t have any money. And I go, “How are you going to give me any money?” He goes, “Every day I walk across the compound, people stop me and say, ‘How’s Cox doing?’ And I say, ‘Oh, he’s okay.’ And they say, ‘Does he need anything?’ And I say, ‘No, no, he’s good.'” He said, “I’m going to start telling these fuckers, ‘Yeah, yeah, he needs something. You want to do something for him? Here’s what he needs.'”
I ended up getting two laptops sent to me. I got the computer program Final Cut Pro. I had guys in prison cutting me checks so that I could build a website and put all these stories on the website. So I start putting the website… And I don’t know what I’m doing. I put them on the website slowly, it takes forever. I’m putting pictures up, I’m trying to figure out how Photoshop works, all this stuff. The whole time I wanted to start… Because the last, when I was just getting out of prison, everybody kept telling me, “Bro, you got to start a podcast. You got to start a true crime podcast.” And I don’t know what a podcast is. The term podcast came into existence in 2009 when I’d been locked up three years. I’d never been on YouTube.
So by the time I get out, the last year or two, guys are coming up to me, giving me magazines, like, “This is what a pod… You need to read… Look, true crime’s huge.” And you have to think, guys are asking me every couple of days, “Cox, you got any stories?” And I’m like, “Yeah, yeah, did you read Cash and Coke?” And they’re like, ” Is that the one with the guys are robbing the drug dealer?” “Yeah.” “Oh no, no, I read that one.” “Did you read this one?” “No, no, I haven’t read that, that’s the one with the guy…” And I’m like, “Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.”
So I’m giving these little stories and then they’d come back and give them to me. You don’t have anything in there, so this is guys that would never read in their life, are reading. And I’m writing about the guy in B2, the guy in C1. So I put up the whole thing and well, anyway, they’re all telling me do a true crime podcast. True crime podcast. I don’t really know what that is, but by now I’m starting to listen to them on YouTube, Serial and Cold Case Files, that kind of stuff.
And I think that’s what I want to do. Well, my buddy Trion says, “There’s a guy named Danny Jones that runs a podcast called Koncrete, and it’s in St. Petersburg, and he lives a couple of miles from me. I see him all the time.” And I went, “Okay.” And he said, “You should email him. He’s got a guy on there all the time that does real estate.” And I go, “I just got out of prison for bank fraud related to real estate. He doesn’t want to interview me.” He goes, “Well, maybe he does. Maybe you could ask him about starting a podcast.”
Okay. So I sent him an email. I remember Danny called me and he said, “Hey, is this Matt Cox?” I was like, “Yeah, this is Matt.” He’s like, “I got your email. This is Danny Jones.” And I was like, “Okay.” And he says, “Yeah, I got your email, bro.” He goes, “This is a good fucking email.” I was like, “What?” He goes, “I get a lot of emails, bro.” He said, “That is a…”
That video got 2 million views. Then I did Patrick Bet-David flew me out. Then I did Soft White Underbelly, then I did Vlad, people started… I’m sorry, and then it just blew up. Then people started asking me to come and talk for no reason, which was crazy. But you were saying, I’m sorry?
He was getting sick. He was getting older. So we talked for a little bit just about the situation. And I was like, “Yeah.” He’s like, “Well, what are you going to do?” And I was like, “There’s nothing I can do. I’ve called multiple attorneys, I’ve talked to people, there’s nothing I can do.” And he was like, “You’re going to figure it out.” He said, “You’re clever and you’re smart, and you’re not going to do all of that time.” And I was like, “I’m done. It’s over. I’m going to get out of here when I’m 60 if I behave myself. And if I don’t, I’ll be 64.” And he was like, “That’s not going to happen.”
I think that was the first time he… I knew he was proud of me when I was making money, but he never said it. You got the look like he was impressed. But we were sitting there and I remember he said… Because it’s the only time I can ever remember him saying he was proud of me. And I remember he said, “You’re going to figure this out.” He said, “I’m not proud of where you ended up, but you’ve done amazing things.” He said, “I wish you’d use your talents for something different, but you’ve done things that I could’ve never done, and you’ve led an amazing, adventurous life, and I’m proud of you.”
I saw her two or three times a week, took her to dinner once a week. Was able to go on walks with her in her wheelchair. I was sitting right next to her when she had her final stroke. I held her hand when she took her last breath. So if I have to be called a snitch the rest of my life, I don’t give a fuck. I may not deserve more, but she deserved more.
I get it. And I’ve tried to do all the right things. I wrote the letters. I drew him pictures. I’ve tried to call and it’s not happening. I would do anything to go back and just be that regular, middle class guy with the two kids and the wife, working a regular job. That’s a good life. That’s a good person. I just made one arrogant decision after another, after another until it snowballed and I couldn’t take it back. And then I did everything I could. And if I wasn’t the calculating, backstabbing scumbag motherfucker that I can be, I’d be in prison right now. Sorry.
So yeah, yeah, I would much rather be a CPA right now. I would much rather… Should’ve stuck with being an insurance adjuster or something. I mean, I never should’ve whited that 30 day [inaudible 05:55:04] out. Never. It was a mistake.
And my dad was a pill head. He was always on some kind of prescription medication. I didn’t want to be that person. And one day I drew a line in the sand and I wouldn’t do it. And I think he’s drawn a line in the sand and he’s decided, “This is the hill I’m going to die on and I’m not going to back off it.” And the thing is, my ex-wife tells him, “He’s a good person, you should be in his life.” His father, because he was adopted. When I was in prison they adopted him. Nick is his dad. Nick has told him. Nick came to see me when I was in prison. Nick has told him like, “Hey, this is a mistake. You’re making a mistake.” Everybody that knows me, knows him, and he has said no. So I fully believe it’s no. I mean, I hope it’s not.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Matthew Cox. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Mario Puzo, author of The Godfather, “Behind every successful fortune, there’s a crime.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:59 – Mortgage fraud
- 16:47 – Creating fake people
- 50:33 – Arrested by FBI
- 1:07:24 – Omerta: Code of silence
- 1:29:41 – Fake ID’s
- 1:59:03 – Getting caught
- 2:12:28 – Going on the run from FBI
- 2:24:09 – Identity theft
- 2:44:49 – More scams
- 2:56:38 – FBI Most Wanted
- 2:59:06 – Close calls
- 3:30:01 – Break up with Becky
- 3:34:42 – Calling parents
- 3:36:41 – Calling FBI
- 3:42:21 – Running from cops
- 4:04:11 – Getting arrested
- 4:19:36 – Snitching
- 4:35:51 – Prison
- 4:53:23 – War dogs
- 5:00:05 – Frank Amodeo
- 5:35:37 – Freedom
- 5:46:31 – Family
- 5:52:34 – Regret
Introduction
Matthew Cox
She found $40,000 in cash in my freezer one night. So she’s like, “What is going on?” So we have this conversation and I tell her, “Look, people are looking for me.” “Who?” “Law enforcement.” “Which ones?” “All of them.” She’s like, “For what?” I go, “Mostly bank fraud.” And she’s like, “Well, how are they not finding you? I mean, people know you like your general contractor,” which I met four months before, this guy, six months before, this one, two months before. She’s like, “So-and-so, so-and-so…” And I’m like, “Right. Right.” She’s like, “I mean, they’ve got your name, they’ve got your… I go, “Well, that’s identity theft.” And she was like, “What do you mean?” I said, “Well, my name’s not… it’s not Joseph Carter.” “What is your name?” I go “Look, don’t even worry about it.”
She found $40,000 in cash in my freezer one night. So she’s like, “What is going on?” So we have this conversation and I tell her, “Look, people are looking for me.” “Who?” “Law enforcement.” “Which ones?” “All of them.” She’s like, “For what?” I go, “Mostly bank fraud.” And she’s like, “Well, how are they not finding you? I mean, people know you like your general contractor,” which I met four months before, this guy, six months before, this one, two months before. She’s like, “So-and-so, so-and-so…” And I’m like, “Right. Right.” She’s like, “I mean, they’ve got your name, they’ve got your… I go, “Well, that’s identity theft.” And she was like, “What do you mean?” I said, “Well, my name’s not… it’s not Joseph Carter.” “What is your name?” I go “Look, don’t even worry about it.”
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Matthew Cox, a conman recently released from federal prison where he served 13 years for bank fraud, mortgage fraud, identity theft, passport fraud, and other charges. He has admitted guilt to all of it. He has written true-crime stories of many of his fellow prisoners. And now he continues this work by interviewing criminals about their crimes on his YouTube channel that I recommend called Inside True Crime. Exploring the mind of a criminal is exploring human nature at the extremes, often in its most raw and illuminating form. And that is something I definitely want to do with this podcast to understand the human mind and everything it is capable of. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Matthew Cox.
The following is a conversation with Matthew Cox, a conman recently released from federal prison where he served 13 years for bank fraud, mortgage fraud, identity theft, passport fraud, and other charges. He has admitted guilt to all of it. He has written true-crime stories of many of his fellow prisoners. And now he continues this work by interviewing criminals about their crimes on his YouTube channel that I recommend called Inside True Crime. Exploring the mind of a criminal is exploring human nature at the extremes, often in its most raw and illuminating form. And that is something I definitely want to do with this podcast to understand the human mind and everything it is capable of. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Matthew Cox.
Mortgage fraud
What was the first crime you committed?
Matthew Cox
The first mortgage I ever did.
The first mortgage I ever did.
Lex Fridman
A mortgage is me borrowing money from a bank to buy a house.
A mortgage is me borrowing money from a bank to buy a house.
Matthew Cox
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
How can you find a way to commit crime in this? How can you do fraud in this space?
How can you find a way to commit crime in this? How can you do fraud in this space?
Matthew Cox
It’s very difficult for the average guy to commit fraud because there’s so many safeguards set up. If you were to go in and say, “I make $300,000 a year,” “Okay, well, we want your W-2s, we want your pay stubs. We’re going to call your employer. We’re going to check to make sure your employer… how long they’ve been incorporated. We’re going to check to make sure they’re registered.” It’s like your whole plan fell apart because the average guy can’t do that. He can’t even come up with the pay stub and W-2.
It’s very difficult for the average guy to commit fraud because there’s so many safeguards set up. If you were to go in and say, “I make $300,000 a year,” “Okay, well, we want your W-2s, we want your pay stubs. We’re going to call your employer. We’re going to check to make sure your employer… how long they’ve been incorporated. We’re going to check to make sure they’re registered.” It’s like your whole plan fell apart because the average guy can’t do that. He can’t even come up with the pay stub and W-2.
So the average person, or “I’m going to put down this much money,” but you’re going to borrow that money from the seller. Okay, well then they start asking for bank statements. “Where did the money come from? How long has it been in your bank?” You can’t even have it put in your bank for a day, get a letter. It’s got to have been there for 90 days or 60 days, depending on the bank. And so there’s all these ways… For the average person, it’s very difficult to commit fraud. The average guy that works at Walmart and makes $60,000 a year, and he’s been there for five years and he saved his deposit, that’s really the guy that those transactions are set up for. To borrow a mortgage from Bank of America, that’s the guy they’re looking for.
Lex Fridman
So to commit fraud in this space, you have to misrepresent some aspect of your identity, of how much you’re worth, how much money you have, this kind of stuff?
So to commit fraud in this space, you have to misrepresent some aspect of your identity, of how much you’re worth, how much money you have, this kind of stuff?
Matthew Cox
Right. You have to be able to lie to the bank. Anytime you lie to the bank, you’ve committed fraud. And it’s funny, when I was doing it, I would say, “Ah, it’s in the gray area.” There’s no gray area. You’re either lying in some capacity or you’re not. So for instance, the very first loan I did, my borrower had been 30 days late on her rent. So they’re really looking at the last two years. So when you go into the bank, most of what they’re asking is a two-year window.
Right. You have to be able to lie to the bank. Anytime you lie to the bank, you’ve committed fraud. And it’s funny, when I was doing it, I would say, “Ah, it’s in the gray area.” There’s no gray area. You’re either lying in some capacity or you’re not. So for instance, the very first loan I did, my borrower had been 30 days late on her rent. So they’re really looking at the last two years. So when you go into the bank, most of what they’re asking is a two-year window.
They’re saying, “How long have you been on their job?” They care about two years, and “How long have you been at your residency?” They’re looking for two years. Now, you could be at three places in two years. That’s fine. As long as you consistently paid for two years. Well, she had been in an apartment complex, but she’d been 30 days late. Now she caught it up, but she was late. The bank doesn’t want to lend you money if you’ve been 30 days late. So I was a broker and I whited out the 30-day late. I just got rid of it. And my manager is the person that told me to do it. She said, “It’ll be fine.” And she was right, it was.
Lex Fridman
What did it feel like? So that was the first fraudulent action you committed.
What did it feel like? So that was the first fraudulent action you committed.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, I was worried. I always say I sweated bullets for four or five days, but I was concerned and I don’t know that I was concerned that I had broken the law. I was concerned because I was behind on my truck payment, I was behind on my mortgage. I had banked on being a mortgage broker, and I’d gone deep, deep behind on all my bills to do this. So in the last minute when this loan isn’t going to close and I have to commit fraud to make that happen… And my fear was they were going to figure it out and maybe I’d get fired. I didn’t think I was going to go to jail because my manager assured me, “You’re not going to jail. You’ll get fired at best.” So my concern was they were going to catch it and I get fired and I wouldn’t get paid. I needed that money so bad.
Yeah, I was worried. I always say I sweated bullets for four or five days, but I was concerned and I don’t know that I was concerned that I had broken the law. I was concerned because I was behind on my truck payment, I was behind on my mortgage. I had banked on being a mortgage broker, and I’d gone deep, deep behind on all my bills to do this. So in the last minute when this loan isn’t going to close and I have to commit fraud to make that happen… And my fear was they were going to figure it out and maybe I’d get fired. I didn’t think I was going to go to jail because my manager assured me, “You’re not going to jail. You’ll get fired at best.” So my concern was they were going to catch it and I get fired and I wouldn’t get paid. I needed that money so bad.
Lex Fridman
So we’ll maybe paint the picture here. Where were you working? Who was the manager?
So we’ll maybe paint the picture here. Where were you working? Who was the manager?
Matthew Cox
The manager, it’s funny because I don’t think I ever really mentioned this, her name was Gretchen Zaas. I don’t mind saying it because she eventually ended up going to jail for fraud. Her name was Gretchen Zaas and she was a manager. I was working for a company called Eagle Lending, and it was in Tampa, and this was my first month. So it was my very first deal, three or four weeks into that first month. And I walk in, I put the file in front of my manager, she looks through everything. “Oh, great. Good. Good.” And put this one piece of paper over here and sat there. And then when she was done, I said, “What’s going on?” She goes, “Perfect. File’s perfect.” She goes, “But your borrower was 30 days late on her rent,” and she says it’s done. She’s like, “That’s a deal killer.” And I was like, “Oh my gosh, what do I do?” And I remember she pulled out a thing, a whiteout. Remember a whiteout? Not that it sticks, but the one that…
The manager, it’s funny because I don’t think I ever really mentioned this, her name was Gretchen Zaas. I don’t mind saying it because she eventually ended up going to jail for fraud. Her name was Gretchen Zaas and she was a manager. I was working for a company called Eagle Lending, and it was in Tampa, and this was my first month. So it was my very first deal, three or four weeks into that first month. And I walk in, I put the file in front of my manager, she looks through everything. “Oh, great. Good. Good.” And put this one piece of paper over here and sat there. And then when she was done, I said, “What’s going on?” She goes, “Perfect. File’s perfect.” She goes, “But your borrower was 30 days late on her rent,” and she says it’s done. She’s like, “That’s a deal killer.” And I was like, “Oh my gosh, what do I do?” And I remember she pulled out a thing, a whiteout. Remember a whiteout? Not that it sticks, but the one that…
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Matthew Cox
And she started going… And I was like, “What?” She goes, “If I was you…” And she handed… She said, “I’d white it out. Make a copy, stick it back in the file.” She said, “It’ll be fine.” I was like, “That’s fraud. I could go to jail.” And she was like, “They’re never going to catch it.” She said, “Look, I do stuff all the time.” She said, “They’re not going to catch it, and nobody’s calling the FBI.” She goes, “Worst case scenario, if underwriting catches it, then they’ll fire you. That’s it. Nobody’s calling… You’re not going to jail.” And I trusted her. I was like, “Okay.” And so I did what she said. I stuck it in the file. And I mean, like I said, for four or five days, I was like, “Oh my God, I’m so scared.”
And she started going… And I was like, “What?” She goes, “If I was you…” And she handed… She said, “I’d white it out. Make a copy, stick it back in the file.” She said, “It’ll be fine.” I was like, “That’s fraud. I could go to jail.” And she was like, “They’re never going to catch it.” She said, “Look, I do stuff all the time.” She said, “They’re not going to catch it, and nobody’s calling the FBI.” She goes, “Worst case scenario, if underwriting catches it, then they’ll fire you. That’s it. Nobody’s calling… You’re not going to jail.” And I trusted her. I was like, “Okay.” And so I did what she said. I stuck it in the file. And I mean, like I said, for four or five days, I was like, “Oh my God, I’m so scared.”
Lex Fridman
How old were you at this point?
How old were you at this point?
Matthew Cox
Probably 29. I think it was 29. I had gone to college and so many things had not worked out. I got a degree in fine arts. There’s not a lot of people looking for anyone with a fine arts degree. And I tried to be an insurance adjuster. Tried that for about a year, year and a half, that didn’t work out. Ended up working construction for a few years. And so finally the girl I was dating said, “You got to be a mortgage broker.” She’s had just started in the mortgage industry. And she was like, “You have to do this. You were born to do this. This is perfect for you.”
Probably 29. I think it was 29. I had gone to college and so many things had not worked out. I got a degree in fine arts. There’s not a lot of people looking for anyone with a fine arts degree. And I tried to be an insurance adjuster. Tried that for about a year, year and a half, that didn’t work out. Ended up working construction for a few years. And so finally the girl I was dating said, “You got to be a mortgage broker.” She’s had just started in the mortgage industry. And she was like, “You have to do this. You were born to do this. This is perfect for you.”
Lex Fridman
What did she see in you?
What did she see in you?
Matthew Cox
She said, “You’re a salesman.” Because I was like, “I can barely balanced my checkbook. I don’t know anything about numbers.” And she was like, “It has nothing to do with that. It’s sales. It’s putting together deals. You’re good at that. You’re good at negotiating. You’re a natural salesman.” And I figured I need to try something.
She said, “You’re a salesman.” Because I was like, “I can barely balanced my checkbook. I don’t know anything about numbers.” And she was like, “It has nothing to do with that. It’s sales. It’s putting together deals. You’re good at that. You’re good at negotiating. You’re a natural salesman.” And I figured I need to try something.
Lex Fridman
So what aspect of mortgages is sales and deal making, what aspects require the charisma that you clearly have?
So what aspect of mortgages is sales and deal making, what aspects require the charisma that you clearly have?
Matthew Cox
Well, one, you have clients that have lots of options. They can go to Bank of America, they can go to SunTrust, they can go to Chase. They have options if they have perfect credit. I ended up working for a company that was a subprime lender, and those people didn’t have a lot of options. Honestly, by the time they got to Eagle Lending, their options were over. So what ends up happening is you’re negotiating with sellers. You would think that a lot of the stuff in that industry that real estate agents should do, the brokers end up doing because real estate agents are used to… You meet them at the house or they take you to several houses, they open the door, they walk around, they write up a contract that’s legit, a legit contract, and you’re already pre-approved. Everything works out. But subprime, that’s not the case.
Well, one, you have clients that have lots of options. They can go to Bank of America, they can go to SunTrust, they can go to Chase. They have options if they have perfect credit. I ended up working for a company that was a subprime lender, and those people didn’t have a lot of options. Honestly, by the time they got to Eagle Lending, their options were over. So what ends up happening is you’re negotiating with sellers. You would think that a lot of the stuff in that industry that real estate agents should do, the brokers end up doing because real estate agents are used to… You meet them at the house or they take you to several houses, they open the door, they walk around, they write up a contract that’s legit, a legit contract, and you’re already pre-approved. Everything works out. But subprime, that’s not the case.
You got borrowers with horrific job history. They don’t have enough of the down payment. Maybe they have the down payment, but they don’t have the closing costs. So you have to go to the real estate agent and say, “Listen, I need you to raise the purchase price and have the seller pay the closing costs,” which is legal to a degree, but that’s not how they wrote up the contract. So now you’re having to get them to rewrite the contract or there’s little things you’re trying to do. And the more deals you get done, and the more you deal with certain real estate agents, the more you start to realize that they’re… You know which ones are completely above board and which ones are willing to twist the rules.
Lex Fridman
And a lot of it works on personal relationships.
And a lot of it works on personal relationships.
Matthew Cox
Right. Right. For some reason, people tend to like me and trust me. I don’t know why. It hasn’t worked out for so many people, but people naturally seem to trust me. And so if I say, “Hey, I can close the loan, but you got to do this. It’ll be cool. Don’t worry, we do it all the time,” it’s like my third loan and “I’ve been doing this for years.” And they go, “Oh, okay.” And then they raise the purchase price, they add some money, they have the seller of the house give the borrower some money, they stick it in the bank or they put it in Escrow, the closing company. Now you’re starting to massage deals.
Right. Right. For some reason, people tend to like me and trust me. I don’t know why. It hasn’t worked out for so many people, but people naturally seem to trust me. And so if I say, “Hey, I can close the loan, but you got to do this. It’ll be cool. Don’t worry, we do it all the time,” it’s like my third loan and “I’ve been doing this for years.” And they go, “Oh, okay.” And then they raise the purchase price, they add some money, they have the seller of the house give the borrower some money, they stick it in the bank or they put it in Escrow, the closing company. Now you’re starting to massage deals.
Lex Fridman
What was the second time you committed a crime? So how did it start to evolve from the whiteout?
What was the second time you committed a crime? So how did it start to evolve from the whiteout?
Matthew Cox
Well, I mean, when that went through, I think a normal person probably would’ve said, “Wow, it was a one-time thing. Got away with it. I’m good.” But for me, it just emboldened me. I just got a check for, I don’t know what it was, 25, $3,500. I was thrilled. And by that time, I was already working on another deal. But that guy, he made… I forget, it’s something like… He had made, let’s say $45,000 the year before in his W-2, based on his current track record or his year to date of his pay stub, he made just enough money. But if you factored in last year’s W-2, he was shy. So if I changed that 45,000 to 51,000, then the loan closes. I get a check for 3,500 bucks. He gets into a house. I’m doing him a favor. I’m doing God’s work. So I fix it.
Well, I mean, when that went through, I think a normal person probably would’ve said, “Wow, it was a one-time thing. Got away with it. I’m good.” But for me, it just emboldened me. I just got a check for, I don’t know what it was, 25, $3,500. I was thrilled. And by that time, I was already working on another deal. But that guy, he made… I forget, it’s something like… He had made, let’s say $45,000 the year before in his W-2, based on his current track record or his year to date of his pay stub, he made just enough money. But if you factored in last year’s W-2, he was shy. So if I changed that 45,000 to 51,000, then the loan closes. I get a check for 3,500 bucks. He gets into a house. I’m doing him a favor. I’m doing God’s work. So I fix it.
I kick back. I’m terrified a little bit, worried about it. Sure enough, it closes. Four or five days later, they call me, “He’s ready to close.” A week later, we close. I get a check. Next guy that comes in… I mean, I got very, very quickly… I was concerned, “Do you have a house? Do you have a deal? Is it ready? I can get you done.” Now, if you were in bankruptcy or something, there’s some things you just… You’d pull their credit and you just couldn’t help them. If they had a 550 credit score or something and no job. I mean, it had to be within reason, but very quickly it was changing W-2s, changing pay stubs, changing appraisals, fixing, like I said, verifications of rent. So it evolved very quickly for me.
Lex Fridman
And you’re essentially helping people.
And you’re essentially helping people.
Matthew Cox
That’s what I told myself.
That’s what I told myself.
Lex Fridman
Giving them a chance. People that have been really struggling financially in life. So you’ve been telling yourself that you’re doing a good thing for people.
Giving them a chance. People that have been really struggling financially in life. So you’ve been telling yourself that you’re doing a good thing for people.
Matthew Cox
I told myself that right up until… That those loans were solid and I was helping those people out, right up until I went to prison. And I was in prison and I had to write… The government asked me to write an ethics and fraud course to help teach the nation’s mortgage brokers. All loan officers and brokers have to take… I think it’s nine hours of continuing education every single year. And I was approached to write the ethics course, and it was about that time and about the same period of time I was writing my book, and I started reflecting on what I had done.
I told myself that right up until… That those loans were solid and I was helping those people out, right up until I went to prison. And I was in prison and I had to write… The government asked me to write an ethics and fraud course to help teach the nation’s mortgage brokers. All loan officers and brokers have to take… I think it’s nine hours of continuing education every single year. And I was approached to write the ethics course, and it was about that time and about the same period of time I was writing my book, and I started reflecting on what I had done.
And the truth is, and this is a horrible thing to say, because the first time I ever heard somebody say this, I remember thinking, “Oh, that’s a horrible thing to say.” Some people should not own a house. They shouldn’t be allowed to borrow. They’re not in a position financially. And there were many occasions where I put someone in a house that they 100% swore they could afford. I was helping them. I told myself I was helping them, and a year and a half later, they’re going into foreclosure. Their stuff’s on the corner, they don’t know where to go. And the truth is that I’m not smarter than the actuaries that came up with those underwriting guidelines.
Lex Fridman
So in this whole process, how are you making money? Are you taking a percentage?
So in this whole process, how are you making money? Are you taking a percentage?
Matthew Cox
Broker fee. Yeah, I charge a broker fee, or you charge yield spread. So yield spread is… Let’s say the interest rate is 8% interest. If I charge them 25 basis points over the 8%, so I charge them eight and a quarter, 8.25, then I get 1% of the loan back as a fee. So if I charge them 8.5%, I get two points back. So if it’s a $100,000 piece of property and the bank says your interest rate is going to be 8%, and I tell you 8.5 and I’m charging you a $3,500 broker fee, now I’m making $5,500. So on even a $100,000 loan, you could make a nice chunk of change. I mean, it’s-
Broker fee. Yeah, I charge a broker fee, or you charge yield spread. So yield spread is… Let’s say the interest rate is 8% interest. If I charge them 25 basis points over the 8%, so I charge them eight and a quarter, 8.25, then I get 1% of the loan back as a fee. So if I charge them 8.5%, I get two points back. So if it’s a $100,000 piece of property and the bank says your interest rate is going to be 8%, and I tell you 8.5 and I’m charging you a $3,500 broker fee, now I’m making $5,500. So on even a $100,000 loan, you could make a nice chunk of change. I mean, it’s-
Lex Fridman
So how much gray area is here? You said that there really isn’t when you’re lying or not, but it feels like there is.
So how much gray area is here? You said that there really isn’t when you’re lying or not, but it feels like there is.
Matthew Cox
Well, every time I change something, it wasn’t gray area, I just committed fraud. At this level, you either meet the guidelines or someone has massaged it in such a way that they’ve committed fraud and that’s it. And there’s tons of ways where you can commit fraud and they just can’t figure it out. Does that make sense? I mean, you’ve committed fraud and it’s like they’ve looked at the entire… They look at all the documents and they double check everything, and they know there’s fraud in here and they just can’t find it.
Well, every time I change something, it wasn’t gray area, I just committed fraud. At this level, you either meet the guidelines or someone has massaged it in such a way that they’ve committed fraud and that’s it. And there’s tons of ways where you can commit fraud and they just can’t figure it out. Does that make sense? I mean, you’ve committed fraud and it’s like they’ve looked at the entire… They look at all the documents and they double check everything, and they know there’s fraud in here and they just can’t find it.
Lex Fridman
Just because they can’t find it doesn’t mean it’s not fraud.
Just because they can’t find it doesn’t mean it’s not fraud.
Matthew Cox
Exactly, doesn’t mean it wasn’t fraud.
Exactly, doesn’t mean it wasn’t fraud.
Creating fake people
Lex Fridman
As part of this, you did a lot of fascinating things. One of the things you did, you talked about creating synthetic people, meaning creating fake identities. What does it take to do that well?
As part of this, you did a lot of fascinating things. One of the things you did, you talked about creating synthetic people, meaning creating fake identities. What does it take to do that well?
Matthew Cox
So your credit profile is made up of your name, date of birth, your address, and your Social Security number. And then there’s other things where you work, that sort of thing. But what people don’t realize is there’s so many people out there that think that the credit bureaus already know who you are, but the truth is, the first time the credit bureau has ever heard about you was when you told them. The first time you applied for a credit card, they created a credit profile at that moment. Prior to that, they had no idea. So the first time you apply, you give them your full name, date of birth, Social Security number and your address, and they create a credit profile and they say, “Hey, no record found of this person. He has no credit, nothing, probably got denied.”
So your credit profile is made up of your name, date of birth, your address, and your Social Security number. And then there’s other things where you work, that sort of thing. But what people don’t realize is there’s so many people out there that think that the credit bureaus already know who you are, but the truth is, the first time the credit bureau has ever heard about you was when you told them. The first time you applied for a credit card, they created a credit profile at that moment. Prior to that, they had no idea. So the first time you apply, you give them your full name, date of birth, Social Security number and your address, and they create a credit profile and they say, “Hey, no record found of this person. He has no credit, nothing, probably got denied.”
Well, what I realized through the course of… Because eventually I ended up leaving that one company and I opened my own mortgage company. When I opened that mortgage company, I was on the inside. Does that make sense? I wasn’t just a broker that was sitting out with everybody else and would periodically come in and ask questions or would call underwriting, but I really didn’t understand what was happening and exactly what the underwriting guidelines were. Now, I was actually talking to the underwriters and you’re talking to the owners of the lending institutions and the banks, and you’re talking to all of the account executives.
And now, it wasn’t just Eagle Lending I was talking to, there were 40 different account executives coming in on a weekly basis trying to get us to sign up with their lender. And they’re on the inside coming in, showing you programs and saying, “Look, if your borrower is self-employed, we don’t ask for this or this, we just ask for them to say to say they’re self- employed.” Liar loans. You’ve heard the term liar loans?
Lex Fridman
No.
No.
Matthew Cox
Okay. Or no doc loans where they don’t ask for any documentation. If he’s got over, let’s say, a 700 credit score and he says he’s been a plumber and he works for himself, and he’s got over a 700 credit score, he just has to say he’s worked for himself for over two years, and-
Okay. Or no doc loans where they don’t ask for any documentation. If he’s got over, let’s say, a 700 credit score and he says he’s been a plumber and he works for himself, and he’s got over a 700 credit score, he just has to say he’s worked for himself for over two years, and-
Lex Fridman
They don’t ask any other questions.
They don’t ask any other questions.
Matthew Cox
They don’t ask for any documentation. He’s got the money in the bank. He’s got a 700 credit score, says he’s been on the job for two years, he’s self-employed. We’re going to raise his interest rate by 1%, and that’s it. He’s got the loan. But you start to know how things work because I hired a bunch of brokers to work underneath me, and when they would get caught, I would get the phone call.
They don’t ask for any documentation. He’s got the money in the bank. He’s got a 700 credit score, says he’s been on the job for two years, he’s self-employed. We’re going to raise his interest rate by 1%, and that’s it. He’s got the loan. But you start to know how things work because I hired a bunch of brokers to work underneath me, and when they would get caught, I would get the phone call.
So I get the phone call from the owner of a bank or a lending institute, a lender, and that lender says, “Hey, Matt, we got a problem.” I’m like, “What’s up?” He’s like, “Listen, we caught a fake W-2.” I’m like, “What do you mean?” “Yeah, your broker so-and-so sent us a file and this person had… There’s two fake W-2s and we’re assuming the pay stubs are fake.” And I’m like, “Are you serious? How did you even catch that?” And they go, “Oh, well, here’s what we did. We checked with sunbiz.gov,” which is the Secretary of State’s website that registers corporations. “And we checked, and the tax ID number didn’t match.” And now I know every W-2 has to have a matching tax ID number for whatever corporation issued it.
Lex Fridman
So there’s a sequence of checks they do to detect fraud in different documents like W-2s?
So there’s a sequence of checks they do to detect fraud in different documents like W-2s?
Matthew Cox
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
And then you’re slowly learning-
And then you’re slowly learning-
Matthew Cox
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Lex Fridman
What’s the process for detecting-
What’s the process for detecting-
Matthew Cox
I mean, I had a pretty good understanding anyway, but so I’m starting to learn that-
I mean, I had a pretty good understanding anyway, but so I’m starting to learn that-
Lex Fridman
It’s common sense understanding. Yeah.
It’s common sense understanding. Yeah.
Matthew Cox
So I’m putting these things together. And I remember one time I had a woman come in and she came in and she had perfect credit. She had like a 750 credit score. I mean, it was perfect. And she came in and one of the brokers came in and said, “Hey, man, can I show you something?” I was like, “Yeah, what’s up?” He goes, “Look,” he said, “I’ve got this woman’s W-2s here.” I said, “Okay.” I looked at them and he goes, “Here’s her credit report.” And he goes, “Here’s the application. This is the Social Security number.” I went, “All right.” And he said, “This is the Social Security number on the W-2.” And I went, “Okay.” Keep in mind, you go to get a car loan or credit card, they never asked for these things.
So I’m putting these things together. And I remember one time I had a woman come in and she came in and she had perfect credit. She had like a 750 credit score. I mean, it was perfect. And she came in and one of the brokers came in and said, “Hey, man, can I show you something?” I was like, “Yeah, what’s up?” He goes, “Look,” he said, “I’ve got this woman’s W-2s here.” I said, “Okay.” I looked at them and he goes, “Here’s her credit report.” And he goes, “Here’s the application. This is the Social Security number.” I went, “All right.” And he said, “This is the Social Security number on the W-2.” And I went, “Okay.” Keep in mind, you go to get a car loan or credit card, they never asked for these things.
I’m really shocked he even noticed it. I probably might not have even caught it, but they were different. And I went, “Really?” And he goes, “Yeah,” he said, “She just brought them in. She’s here.” And I was like, “Oh, bring her in here.” So she came in, sat down, I said, “Listen, here’s what we just found.” And she was like, “Oh, okay. You know what? I don’t want the loan. I just… I go, “No, no, no, no, no.” I said, “Listen, you’re getting a loan. You got a 750 credit score. I don’t care what we have to do. We’re getting you the loan. I just want to know what’s going on. How did you get 750 credit scores under this Social Security number when clearly this is your real Social Security number? You’ve been working for this company for 10 years, and your credit profile says it’s only three years old. And I was like, “What happened?”
And what she told me she did was she went through a divorce. She had been married for 10 years, used her husband’s… I mean, his surname for 10 years. So she has no credit under her maiden name. But when they got divorced, she switched to her maiden name because when she tried to get anything in her husband’s surname, it was denied, bad credit. So he had bad credit. Their credit went bad. So she switched to her name and a friend told her if she needed to get her electric or anything turned on, she could use her name and use her daughter’s or son’s Social Security number, which was like a four-year-old kid. So she used that and it went through, she had to put a deposit down, but it went through at least, it wasn’t denied. So that went through.
Then she went and she applied for an apartment with that. Sure enough, it went through. She had no credit, but they said, you don’t have bad credit. So she said once she moved into the apartment, she then started getting these pre-approved credit cards. So she goes, “But I knew I had applied there using my son’s Social Security number,” let’s say. So she started filling those out, and sure enough, she got a credit card and then she got two, and then she got a pre-approval from Ford Motor Credit. She went and got herself a new car, got approved. She’d been making the payments ever since. She has a 750 credit score. She thought she’d try her hand at buying a house in his Social Security number, and we caught it and she got a house in that name. We closed it. I just was like, “Wow, this is great.”
Lex Fridman
Can I ask you a question about that? Because it seems like she’s able to pay for everything.
Can I ask you a question about that? Because it seems like she’s able to pay for everything.
Matthew Cox
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
So while this is highly illegal, is it unethical? It’s unethical in that it’s messing with the system on which a lot of people rely, but it feels like there’s some aspect of the system that’s broken in that it doesn’t give people like her a second chance.
So while this is highly illegal, is it unethical? It’s unethical in that it’s messing with the system on which a lot of people rely, but it feels like there’s some aspect of the system that’s broken in that it doesn’t give people like her a second chance.
Matthew Cox
She could have claimed bankruptcy and then two years later… Listen, two years out of bankruptcy, you can go into Bank of America and get a conventional mortgage, assuming you have perfect credit outside the bankruptcy, you have the down payment, you make enough money, there’s a whole bunch of underwriting guidelines you have to meet. But that’s possible. But you’re right. For instance, she wasn’t getting an apartment with her bad credit, she wasn’t getting her utilities turned on. She wasn’t getting any of those things done.
She could have claimed bankruptcy and then two years later… Listen, two years out of bankruptcy, you can go into Bank of America and get a conventional mortgage, assuming you have perfect credit outside the bankruptcy, you have the down payment, you make enough money, there’s a whole bunch of underwriting guidelines you have to meet. But that’s possible. But you’re right. For instance, she wasn’t getting an apartment with her bad credit, she wasn’t getting her utilities turned on. She wasn’t getting any of those things done.
Lex Fridman
So getting your life back on track is just harder.
So getting your life back on track is just harder.
Matthew Cox
It’s extremely hard.
It’s extremely hard.
Lex Fridman
So there’s a temptation to take the shortcut and the shortcut is often going to be illegal.
So there’s a temptation to take the shortcut and the shortcut is often going to be illegal.
Matthew Cox
Right. And she stumbled into it, but she basically explained it to me, and I don’t think she had walked out of my brokerage office before I went, and I just started making up names. And I think I went into our file cabinet and grabbed some people’s 1040s, which we had, their tax returns and looked up children’s Social Security numbers and just grabbed some random kids’ Social Security numbers and their name and went and pulled them. But I changed their date of birth to be an adult. Pulled it, and sure enough it came up, “No file found.” It didn’t say fraud alert or fraud or anything. They didn’t say mismatched this, mismatched that, didn’t say anything. It just said, “No file found.” Well, then we went and we applied for a couple credit cards using a child’s Social Security number, and then we went and pulled our own credit report.
Right. And she stumbled into it, but she basically explained it to me, and I don’t think she had walked out of my brokerage office before I went, and I just started making up names. And I think I went into our file cabinet and grabbed some people’s 1040s, which we had, their tax returns and looked up children’s Social Security numbers and just grabbed some random kids’ Social Security numbers and their name and went and pulled them. But I changed their date of birth to be an adult. Pulled it, and sure enough it came up, “No file found.” It didn’t say fraud alert or fraud or anything. They didn’t say mismatched this, mismatched that, didn’t say anything. It just said, “No file found.” Well, then we went and we applied for a couple credit cards using a child’s Social Security number, and then we went and pulled our own credit report.
And sure enough, it didn’t say no file found. It just said that there had been two inquiries applying for credit cards. So I was like, “Wow, that’s a credit profile.” So that turns into me calling Social Security and trying to get them to issue me Social Security numbers to adults that had never had a Social Security number issued to them. I need to get a Social Security number to give me a clean Social Security number. But I called up, and of course, I’m a novice, I don’t really know what I’m doing. So I call up and I say, “Hey, yeah, I never had a Social Security number issued.” And they were like, “How old are you?” And I was like, “I’m 31 years old.” And they were, “Yeah, that’s not possible. Do you have a driver’s license?” “Yeah.” “You have a bank account?” “Yeah.” “You have a Social Security number. Bring your driver’s license in and we’ll pull it up.” Okay, well, that’s not going to happen.
Hang up, call back. “Hi, my son is seven years old or three years old, and he never had a Social Security number issued.” “Oh, okay. Was he born in a hospital?” “Yes.” “Well, he has one. He has one. Go ahead and get your son, come in here…” No, I’m not doing that. Hang up, call back. So I called back probably 10 times, and eventually someone said… I kept altering it, kept altering what I was saying until I got to the point where I was saying, “My son was born with a midwife, not in the hospital. And the pediatrician told us that we need to get Social Security to issue a Social Security number.”
And they would say, “Well, he should have issued it. But that does happen sometimes. So bring your son in and you can fill out the paperwork. We’ll have one issued. First, we’ll check to see if he never had one issued. And if he hasn’t, we’ll issue one.” And so then it turned into, “My son is out of the country and I need this.” And then that turned into, “Oh, I’m sorry. Well, how old is he?” I was like, “He’s three.” And they go, “Well, I’m sorry if he’s over the age of 12 months old, he has to come in.” Hang up the phone, call back. “My son is 10 months old, he’s out of the country, born with a midwife, never had a Social Security number.” And then they go, “Oh, okay, that’s fine. Just get his birth certificate and his shot record and you can come in, fill out the paperwork, we’ll issue you a Social Security number.”
And that’s what I did. So I figured out how to create a birth certificate. I ordered the security paper where you make a copy. It says, “Void if copied.” I ordered had to order a bunch of that, and I went online and figured out how to make a fake birth certificate. It was great too, because the county actually, they give you a blank form and then they actually show you what it looks like filled out, like a handwritten one filled out. So I knew if he was born this day, he got these shots. Two months later, he got these shots. Six months later he got these shots. So I just filled it out. I even had to order a seal. So you have to have a seal that says “Hillsborough County Vital Statistics” or “Richland County Vital Statistics” or something. And I couldn’t get anybody to make that.
So I changed it to Richland County Office of Virtual Records. And then I took 220 grit sandpaper and hit it over and over and over again to wear it down. And then I did the embossment on the corner and I printed it on the security paper, embossed it. Nobody looks at those things. You could see Richland County, you could kind of see that. And really, they just grab it and they go like this. This is what you realize after you… When I started getting driver’s licenses issued by the state DMV, I figured out eventually it was easier to just go into the DMV and have them give me a driver’s license than actually make one. But you notice they would just grab the thing, they’d feel the form and go, “Okay,” they don’t even look at it, which is upsetting if you put as much work into these documents as I am for them to go, “Okay. Yeah, that’s good. Sit over there.” I felt like going like, “Hey, bro, take a look at this. This is artwork.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But they’re looking for the low hanging fruit of crappy fraud?
Yeah. But they’re looking for the low hanging fruit of crappy fraud?
Matthew Cox
Right. Yeah. This stuff was right through.
Right. Yeah. This stuff was right through.
Lex Fridman
Okay, so birth certificate gets you a Social Security number. So it’s interesting because you’ve done a lot of different approaches to creating synthetic people. There’s homeless people involved. So sometimes it’s grounded in real people or real names.
Okay, so birth certificate gets you a Social Security number. So it’s interesting because you’ve done a lot of different approaches to creating synthetic people. There’s homeless people involved. So sometimes it’s grounded in real people or real names.
Matthew Cox
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Some part is fake, some part is real sometimes, and sometimes it’s completely all fake.
Some part is fake, some part is real sometimes, and sometimes it’s completely all fake.
Matthew Cox
Right, because now I have the name, I have the Social Security number. And what’s great is they mail you. What’s even better is then you get to pick whatever name you want. Because when you pick your child’s name, he doesn’t even have to have your last name, you pick any name. So I would pick a name and I’d just say, “Oh, my wife’s last name is this” If they questioned it, which they never did. I’ve got a Social Security number, and then I would go apply for credit cards and I’d get denied of course, but they would all offer me a secured credit card. So I’d then fill out the secured credit card and I’d send the bank the money, and they would give me a secured credit card for $500, $300, $1000, whatever it was. And then once you start making the payments, I pulled the credit and a credit profile shows up saying that this 31-year-old man with the Social Security number that I know was issued a couple of months ago, has three credit cards.
Right, because now I have the name, I have the Social Security number. And what’s great is they mail you. What’s even better is then you get to pick whatever name you want. Because when you pick your child’s name, he doesn’t even have to have your last name, you pick any name. So I would pick a name and I’d just say, “Oh, my wife’s last name is this” If they questioned it, which they never did. I’ve got a Social Security number, and then I would go apply for credit cards and I’d get denied of course, but they would all offer me a secured credit card. So I’d then fill out the secured credit card and I’d send the bank the money, and they would give me a secured credit card for $500, $300, $1000, whatever it was. And then once you start making the payments, I pulled the credit and a credit profile shows up saying that this 31-year-old man with the Social Security number that I know was issued a couple of months ago, has three credit cards.
They don’t even say secure. They just say, ” This credit card is $500. It was issued by Bank of America. This one was issued by Capital One, this one…” So I’ve got three of them, but I had no credit scores. So at that point, I kind of kicked back and waited and I just kept making payments. And I remember thinking to myself, “I’ll bet you that the credit bureaus don’t generate credit scores for at least a year.” And I was like, “God, this is going to be a year long process.” And while that was happening, I was starting other ones because I figured at least in a year I’ll have a bunch of these… We call them phantom borrowers, but now they call them synthetic identities. So at least I would have these synthetic identities and maybe I could do something with them. But what happened was at six months, I went and I randomly pulled the person’s credit, and he had 705 credit scores, 705, 701, 695. I was like, “Oh, my God.” You only needed a 620 to get a 95% loan from the bank. So-
Matthew Cox
Borrow to get a 95% loan from the bank. So I was like, “Oh my God, this is amazing.” Sure enough, a month later, the other ones I had started, all of them, bam, bam, bam.
Borrow to get a 95% loan from the bank. So I was like, “Oh my God, this is amazing.” Sure enough, a month later, the other ones I had started, all of them, bam, bam, bam.
Lex Fridman
So what do you do with a phantom borrower? How do you make money on this?
So what do you do with a phantom borrower? How do you make money on this?
Matthew Cox
So I think most people, if you were just a scammer or a fraudster, you would probably just get credit cards and maybe build up that history or maybe try and borrow a personal loan, which is limited. Personal loans used to be, you could go to an FDIC insured bank, which borrows money. The personal loans they lend out at the max $15,000. So you could do that.
So I think most people, if you were just a scammer or a fraudster, you would probably just get credit cards and maybe build up that history or maybe try and borrow a personal loan, which is limited. Personal loans used to be, you could go to an FDIC insured bank, which borrows money. The personal loans they lend out at the max $15,000. So you could do that.
Lex Fridman
So you can go through this whole process of creating a fake identity, getting a card, paying it off, building up credit, and then you get $15,000 at the end or so.
So you can go through this whole process of creating a fake identity, getting a card, paying it off, building up credit, and then you get $15,000 at the end or so.
Matthew Cox
Right. You get 15. Maybe if you want to keep making the payments, if you could wait a year, you could probably get 15,000, you could maybe get 20, 30,000 and a bunch of little smaller ones. You get 7,500. There was a $7,500 from Citibank, $5,500 from American General. So you maybe get, what? 25,000, maybe 30,000 in personal loans.
Right. You get 15. Maybe if you want to keep making the payments, if you could wait a year, you could probably get 15,000, you could maybe get 20, 30,000 and a bunch of little smaller ones. You get 7,500. There was a $7,500 from Citibank, $5,500 from American General. So you maybe get, what? 25,000, maybe 30,000 in personal loans.
Maybe you could then get another 20 or 30,000 in regular credit cards. 10,000 here, 8,000, 5,000, and then you go to the lower department store cards and you go to Home Depot, you get 1,000, you get 500. So it ends up being maybe you can get 50, 60,000, maybe if you really good, you could get up to 80 or 100,000 in credit cards and personal loans if you really knew what you were doing. But-
Lex Fridman
Per person, per identity?
Per person, per identity?
Matthew Cox
Per identity. But I had the ability to leverage those perfect credit profiles against properties, and I mean, ultimately that’s what I end up doing so each one of those identities was worth a few million.
Per identity. But I had the ability to leverage those perfect credit profiles against properties, and I mean, ultimately that’s what I end up doing so each one of those identities was worth a few million.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain how that works, so to leverage them against property? So how does that work with the mortgage?
Can you explain how that works, so to leverage them against property? So how does that work with the mortgage?
Matthew Cox
So what I did eventually, I mean this is down the road, but at this point when my whole life had kind of gone off the rails. I was on federal probation, and so what I decided I was going to do was start running a scam, a much larger scam. And what I was going to do was I was going to start flipping properties, right? Buy houses cheap, fix them up and sell them.
So what I did eventually, I mean this is down the road, but at this point when my whole life had kind of gone off the rails. I was on federal probation, and so what I decided I was going to do was start running a scam, a much larger scam. And what I was going to do was I was going to start flipping properties, right? Buy houses cheap, fix them up and sell them.
There’s an area of Tampa called Ybor City. So I was going to start flipping houses in Ybor City. I thought, “Okay, I can buy these houses for,” you could buy a really crappy house at that time for 50, $60,000, let’s say 50. And then you could put $25,000 into it in renovations. You could renovate it for 25 and maybe you could get an appraisal for 100. So I thought what I could do is, “I can buy these houses, renovate them and sell them to regular people.”
But I also had been working on the synthetic identities. And then I thought, “well, or I could just sell them to synthetic identities.” And then I wouldn’t have to dump 25,000 into it, right? And these guys are perfect. They have perfect credit. I can provide W-2s and pay stubs because by this point I’m manufacturing businesses. So I’ve incorporated businesses, I’ve got websites for the businesses, W-2s, pay stubs, so these guys look perfect.
So I figure I’ll buy these properties for 50,000, sell it to these guys for 100. Maybe I’ll pocket 40 or 50,000. I don’t really have to do anything. But that seemed shortsighted. So I thought, “What would be even better is that if I did a little bit of renovations and then I sold it for much higher.” Maybe I put 10,000 clean up the outside of it, because these guys don’t care what the inside of the property looks like. They don’t exist.
“But how am I going to get an appraisal for $100,000?” Well, you know how appraisals work? Okay, so the bank sends an appraiser out, or at that time you could provide an appraisal. They can review it. So they’ll do what’s called a desktop review. They review it on the computer and they never go out to the property or they send someone out. They call that, it’s a field review. They send someone out and they just look at the house. They don’t go in it though. So I have to clean up the outside of the house.
But the problem is if you’re trying to sell that house for let’s say 200,000, the other houses, they have to pick three comparable sales in the area that are also going to support a $200,000 sales price.
Well, there’s no other house that’s selling for 200,000 near this house. So I thought, “If I want to get these things appraised for 200, 250,000, I have to have comparable sales and that appraisal is going to be reviewed.” So what I did was I went out and I bought this house for 50,000 and I recorded the sale at 200,000.
So when you buy a house for $100,000, you pay $700 in dock stamps. But if you pay an extra 700 bucks, the sale shows up for 200,000. I’m buying these things for 50, so I’m paying $350 and I’m just paying an extra $1,050. So it ends up being $1,400, but the sale shows up at 200,000 on a house. That’s a crack house I bought for $50,000.
Now I go, I trim the trees, we mow the yard, we clean up the porch, we put the porch rail on maybe, we paint it real nice. We black out all the windows. You can’t see inside, but from the curb it looks great. I get an appraisal. So I do that with that house. I do that with another house all within a mile. So I buy four houses knowing there’s a subject and three comparables for all of them.
So the first thing I did is I bought four houses for 50,000, 60,000, 40,000 and I recorded the values at 210, 200, 190. So I get an appraiser to come out there. He appraises it. Of course, he says, “It’s horrible,” but there’s comparables here. Now, of course it is in bad shape, and he says, “It’s in bad shape,” but I go ahead and I correct all that. So I correct it.
So now if you review the appraisal and you’re in California, or even if the appraiser comes to the house and looks at it from the street, it looks fine. But the truth is, I’ve got $60,000 into this property and you’re appraising it for 200,000. So the bank, they’re not going to lend 200, but they’ll lend one 190. So the bank is ready to lend this synthetic borrower $ 190,000 on a house that I have 60,000 in. So I schedule a closing and we close on the house and I walk away with $60,000.
And the thing is, the problem was is by the time I got to this point, I knew so many people in the industry, nobody had to really at that point show up. Although I’ve had people show up for the synthetic identities and sign for them. Almost all the closings, nobody ever showed up.
I just showed up and said to the title agency and said, “Hey, my borrower, he’s at work right now. He can’t make it. Can I just take the file and I’ll have him sign all the documents at his work and I’ll bring them back. He’s like an hour and a half away from here. I’ll be back in two or three hours.” And they’re like, “Oh, wow, man, Matt, thank you so much”. And they would give it to me and I’d go sit in the parking lot and I’d sign all the documents and I’d wait an hour or two and I’d come back in and say, “Here you go.”
Lex Fridman
How were you able to keep all of this in your mind because you have to not slip up in any of these conversations?
How were you able to keep all of this in your mind because you have to not slip up in any of these conversations?
Matthew Cox
It’s pretty easy for me to keep everything in the correct category. Does that make sense?
It’s pretty easy for me to keep everything in the correct category. Does that make sense?
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Matthew Cox
I’m not great at a lot of things, but this I was very good at.
I’m not great at a lot of things, but this I was very good at.
Lex Fridman
Well, there’s these phantom people that exist and they were becoming real people in your mind, as in you’re able to tell good stories with those people, right? Because if you’re talking to the appraiser, you’re talking to everybody involved.
Well, there’s these phantom people that exist and they were becoming real people in your mind, as in you’re able to tell good stories with those people, right? Because if you’re talking to the appraiser, you’re talking to everybody involved.
Matthew Cox
Well, keep in mind, the appraiser almost never meets the borrower. Never. 99.99% of the time they never meet them.
Well, keep in mind, the appraiser almost never meets the borrower. Never. 99.99% of the time they never meet them.
Lex Fridman
But you have to talk about them?
But you have to talk about them?
Matthew Cox
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So I guess what I’m asking is you’re able to converse fluently about these synthetic identities.
So I guess what I’m asking is you’re able to converse fluently about these synthetic identities.
Matthew Cox
Yeah. They all had different jobs. They were all on the job for five years. A lot of it was-
Yeah. They all had different jobs. They were all on the job for five years. A lot of it was-
Lex Fridman
Sure. There’s a template.
Sure. There’s a template.
Matthew Cox
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
I got it.
I got it.
Matthew Cox
Listen, as a matter of fact, almost every one of them had the same birthdate because who knows? So it wasn’t difficult and keep in mind, a lot of the brokers barely ever meet the borrower. They call in on the phone, but it didn’t matter anyway, because I’m walking in saying, “I got a slam dunk deal for you.” And they’re like, ” Oh, wow, Matt, you got the W-2s, the pay stubs. You got all their rental history, you have everything done. It’s perfect. Thank you so much.” They’re happy to do it.
Listen, as a matter of fact, almost every one of them had the same birthdate because who knows? So it wasn’t difficult and keep in mind, a lot of the brokers barely ever meet the borrower. They call in on the phone, but it didn’t matter anyway, because I’m walking in saying, “I got a slam dunk deal for you.” And they’re like, ” Oh, wow, Matt, you got the W-2s, the pay stubs. You got all their rental history, you have everything done. It’s perfect. Thank you so much.” They’re happy to do it.
“Hey, I’ll print up the docs and I’ll have them go sign it.” “Great. Wow, thank you.” Assuming they didn’t already know about it, and almost everybody involved in this by the time I was done, was involved. There was probably 15 or 20 people that all knew what was going on.
Lex Fridman
The full of it? They knew the full depth of it?
The full of it? They knew the full depth of it?
Matthew Cox
Yes. Maybe not 100% everything, but they definitely knew this is fraud.
Yes. Maybe not 100% everything, but they definitely knew this is fraud.
Lex Fridman
And they were still going along with it?
And they were still going along with it?
Matthew Cox
Keep in mind that even when, I’ll give you an example. One of my, let’s say, and this happened with almost all of them, was, he would buy five houses. So the basic design was I buy the houses, I record the values higher, and this person buys all five houses, refinances them. He ends up borrowing a little bit over a million dollars in his name.
Keep in mind that even when, I’ll give you an example. One of my, let’s say, and this happened with almost all of them, was, he would buy five houses. So the basic design was I buy the houses, I record the values higher, and this person buys all five houses, refinances them. He ends up borrowing a little bit over a million dollars in his name.
Then of course, then I go and I get personal loans from several banks. I get credit cards. I run up all of his credit cards. By this point, I’ve got 10, $20,000 worth of credit cards in the guy’s name. So the guys are all worth a million, a million and change. Well, once I stop paying, you start getting letters from the collection companies, right? From the banks, and then they sell them off. So after about three months, you’re getting tons of letters.
And what I would do is I would take my borrower’s name, I would go online and I would find, or I’d go in the newspaper and I would find an article about, let’s say a 12 car pile up. So there’s a huge accident on I-4. It’s very dangerous. So there’s a 12 car pile up, and someone in the accident was life flighted to Tampa General Hospital.
I would cut and paste that article and I would just insert my borrower’s name into the article saying that, “Brandon Green was life flighted to Tampa General Hospital. He’s currently in critical condition.” I would then print that article out on newsprint. I’d then make a copy of it. Cut it up, make a copy of the newsprint, highlight his name, and I would write a letter from Brandon Green’s fictional sister to the collection companies saying, “Several months ago, my brother was in a horrible car accident. He is currently…”
They’ve got the article, they have the highlighted name. He clearly was in this accident. “He is currently in a coma, and the doctors say, ‘Even if he wakes up from the coma, he will never work again.’ So you might as well just foreclose. Stop writing us letters and take the houses back.” And that’s all they’re looking for, is a reason.
At this point, even if they look into Brandon Green, they can’t figure out if he’s a real person or not because he’s got a social security number and everything went bad at the same time. He’s got multiple rental properties or his primary residence, all of his credit cards went bad, everything went bad. We have an excuse. We have a letter. That happens. People get divorced, they lose their job, they get in accidents. It’s reasonable.
Lex Fridman
When they look into it, it all looks legitimate.
When they look into it, it all looks legitimate.
Matthew Cox
Even if they ordered another appraisal, by this point it’s not four comparable sales or three or four comparable sales, by this point it’s 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50 because I kept making more and more of these guys.
Even if they ordered another appraisal, by this point it’s not four comparable sales or three or four comparable sales, by this point it’s 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50 because I kept making more and more of these guys.
Lex Fridman
What was your, just almost like a tangent, what’s your thinking process? There’s a lot of cleverness going on here. So the car pile up as a solution. The newspaper and you mail it. Are you sitting there alone and thinking through this? How do you come up with that idea? It’s a very interesting, a very clever, innovative idea.
What was your, just almost like a tangent, what’s your thinking process? There’s a lot of cleverness going on here. So the car pile up as a solution. The newspaper and you mail it. Are you sitting there alone and thinking through this? How do you come up with that idea? It’s a very interesting, a very clever, innovative idea.
Matthew Cox
So at first, I thought about making a fake death certificate. He died. But I thought, “I don’t know what if,” some of these places had primary mortgage insurance, “what if the primary mortgage insurance, what if they try and claim because he was dead or I don’t know. I don’t know that side.” So I’m like, “I don’t want to do that. I want to do something that’s semi verifiable and a third party’s telling you this is what happened.”
So at first, I thought about making a fake death certificate. He died. But I thought, “I don’t know what if,” some of these places had primary mortgage insurance, “what if the primary mortgage insurance, what if they try and claim because he was dead or I don’t know. I don’t know that side.” So I’m like, “I don’t want to do that. I want to do something that’s semi verifiable and a third party’s telling you this is what happened.”
I thought, “Well, like the newspaper, or do I claim bankruptcy?” And I’ve done that. I’ve gone and got the bankruptcy forms. You can go to the bankruptcy court and they’ll give you forms to mail to all of your creditors. You mail them and they stop contacting you. They wait to be located or notified by the bankruptcy court. But my fear there is, “Nobody’s ever going to notify them. I’m not going through bankruptcy for one of these guys.”
So it was like, “This is a better bet than just writing a letter saying, ‘I’m going through a divorce. My wife’s keeping those houses. That’s her problem.'” There’s lots of things you could do, but to me this was, “How do you shut it down without him dying? How do you shut that down?” This is how you shut it down. He’s in a coma. He’ll never work again. He was in a car accident. Here’s the proof. He can’t even write you. I’m his sister. I wrote you the letter.
Lex Fridman
It’s a one-time letter that seems to tie up all the-
It’s a one-time letter that seems to tie up all the-
Matthew Cox
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
… loose ends.
… loose ends.
Matthew Cox
Exactly. I don’t know exactly what sparked that as much as there were so many other avenues that I could have gone that I just didn’t know.
Exactly. I don’t know exactly what sparked that as much as there were so many other avenues that I could have gone that I just didn’t know.
Lex Fridman
But you were thinking through all those different avenues?
But you were thinking through all those different avenues?
Matthew Cox
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Are you mostly thinking alone?
Are you mostly thinking alone?
Matthew Cox
I mean, I had guys I was bouncing-
I mean, I had guys I was bouncing-
Lex Fridman
Ideas.
Ideas.
Matthew Cox
… ideas off of. There were other guys that were involved in the scam. I think that scam ended up making, I think the FBI said it was 11.5 million or something. But there were so many other people that were involved in that scam that were, this guy’s getting 50, this guy’s getting 17,000, 20,000, 25,000. And we’re just doing it constantly.
… ideas off of. There were other guys that were involved in the scam. I think that scam ended up making, I think the FBI said it was 11.5 million or something. But there were so many other people that were involved in that scam that were, this guy’s getting 50, this guy’s getting 17,000, 20,000, 25,000. And we’re just doing it constantly.
And so the bank would foreclose on that property. They’d take it back. They’d put it back on the MLS. They put it back on the MLS for 200,000. It wouldn’t sell. Then they’d drop it to 150. It wouldn’t sell. Then they’d drop it to 125, 130. It wouldn’t sell. They’d drop it to 90 and somebody would buy it for 90. It wasn’t worth 90. But by that point, we’d done so many houses at that point the whole area shot up.
The FBI said we did 109 houses. I don’t think that’s true. But-
Lex Fridman
Wow.
Wow.
Matthew Cox
… When I end up leaving Tampa after that scam falls apart, and the FBI shows up, Forbes came out with an article, whatever six months later, and they said that, “The Ybor City zip code was one of the top 20 fastest growing appraising areas in the country.” And everybody was like, “Oh, that’s Matt, because this place is a dump. This is a horrible place.” And I remember one time, I had talked to a guy years later, and he was like, “All the comparable sales have dried up. When you left, there was just nothing even close to 200,000.”
… When I end up leaving Tampa after that scam falls apart, and the FBI shows up, Forbes came out with an article, whatever six months later, and they said that, “The Ybor City zip code was one of the top 20 fastest growing appraising areas in the country.” And everybody was like, “Oh, that’s Matt, because this place is a dump. This is a horrible place.” And I remember one time, I had talked to a guy years later, and he was like, “All the comparable sales have dried up. When you left, there was just nothing even close to 200,000.”
Arrested by FBI
Lex Fridman
You mentioned right before telling the story of this elaborate scam that you were on federal probation. How did that happen?
You mentioned right before telling the story of this elaborate scam that you were on federal probation. How did that happen?
Matthew Cox
So I mentioned that I owned the mortgage company.
So I mentioned that I owned the mortgage company.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Matthew Cox
So I had started a mortgage company. I had maybe a dozen guys working for me, and there was fraud. I would say it wasn’t all fraud, but whatever, 60, 70% of it was fraud that was going in there. And from the outside of that business, it looked very legitimate. We were an FHA approved lender. We were a VA approved lender. We did conventional, probably signed up with 40 or 50 subprime lenders. But there was a considerable amount of fraud. It became a game, right?
So I had started a mortgage company. I had maybe a dozen guys working for me, and there was fraud. I would say it wasn’t all fraud, but whatever, 60, 70% of it was fraud that was going in there. And from the outside of that business, it looked very legitimate. We were an FHA approved lender. We were a VA approved lender. We did conventional, probably signed up with 40 or 50 subprime lenders. But there was a considerable amount of fraud. It became a game, right?
I started getting just more and more creative. Like I said, every time I would get away with something you become emboldened by it. It’s like, “Nice.” ” Hey, the underwriter’s looking for this and looking for this.” And you sit there and go, “Man. What am I going to do? You know what we could do? We could create our own bank.” “What?” “Yeah. Here’s we’re going to do. We’re going to go on…” How do they know if this bank exists? These people are in California, they’re in New York. They don’t know.
“So what we’re going to do is we’re going to go online,” and keep mind, this is 2000, 2001. The internet’s in its infancy still, right? I remember GoDaddy, I think had just come up with a site where you could build your own website. How cool is that? So I go online with a buddy of mine, and we create something called the Bank of Ybor. We cut and pasted things that we liked from other banks. We got a 1-800 number you could call, or a 186 number, whatever it was, and you could call it, and it would go to a voicemail.
So we set up this bank, and then I ended up making bank statements, which by this point, I already had been making bank statements to prove someone has their down payment. Because a lot of times people, they have good enough credit to borrow 95% or 90%, but they don’t have their down payment. So we’d raise the purchase price high enough to cover their five or 10% down payment.
We would bring their down payment for them, or we’d have the owner of the house bring the down payment for them. Then we would have a check cut out of the clothing statement to a construction company that I owned, and we get our money back. So they get into the house for 100% financing or 110%. Some of them turned into one 130. We want to pay off their car, give them an incentive to sign. They still don’t have the money to buy it. So we are doing all kinds of insane things.
Well, at some point, remember Gretchen Zayas, my old manager?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, the original.
Yeah, the original.
Matthew Cox
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
The OG.
The OG.
Matthew Cox
She came and worked for me for a short period of time, and then she and her husband went and opened their own mortgage company, which you should have known it was going to be fraudulent from the get go because it was was called Creative Financing. It was CFM, Creative Finance. No, Creative-
She came and worked for me for a short period of time, and then she and her husband went and opened their own mortgage company, which you should have known it was going to be fraudulent from the get go because it was was called Creative Financing. It was CFM, Creative Finance. No, Creative-
Lex Fridman
Creative was in the name.
Creative was in the name.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, Creative was in the name.
Yeah, Creative was in the name.
Lex Fridman
It’s really on the nose.
It’s really on the nose.
Matthew Cox
So she’s doing very well and we became very close by the way. Where we’d go on vacation, went to Puerto Rico together. I got married at the time. I was married. Our kids play together. We babysit. We go to each other’s parties. We’re close. We’re good friends. And she’s got her own mortgage company. She calls me up periodically and asked me, “Hey, can you make a W-2?” Or, “Hey, can you make me a pay stub?” “Sure, no problem.” We’re friends. That’s what fraudulent friends do.
So she’s doing very well and we became very close by the way. Where we’d go on vacation, went to Puerto Rico together. I got married at the time. I was married. Our kids play together. We babysit. We go to each other’s parties. We’re close. We’re good friends. And she’s got her own mortgage company. She calls me up periodically and asked me, “Hey, can you make a W-2?” Or, “Hey, can you make me a pay stub?” “Sure, no problem.” We’re friends. That’s what fraudulent friends do.
So if I needed somebody to verify rent or verify somebody’s rental history or employment, she had a cell phone, she would answer that sort of thing for me. Well, what ends up happening is she gets in trouble. She starts doing fraudulent loans for some guys, and these guys are doing what’s called a cashback scam. So they’re getting a half a million dollar loan on a house that’s worth $300,000. So they’re buying the house for whatever, 600,000. It’s really only worth 300, 350.
But she happened to be in an area where she could get the appraisal jacked up. So they buy the house, they get two, $300,000 back, and it’s a straw man’s scam, right? It’s a cash back straw man’s scam. So this is a real person that’s buying the house. He’s got perfect credit, but he’s willing to ruin his credit to get a couple 100,000 in his pocket. So he never has any intentions. So it’s not a synthetic identity. It’s not a stolen identity. It’s a straw man. He’s not a fake person, but he’s just a straw man. He’s a stand in.
So he stands in, he signs the paperwork, he buys the house. They end up getting two, 300,000. Well, this guy buys like five houses, so it’s two, $3 million. They’ve lost six, $700,000 and these guys never even make the first payment. They just let them go into foreclosure. So the bank immediately investigates and realizes this is fraud.
So the FBI comes in, they grab Pete and Gretchen. She has to hire an attorney, of course, and she doesn’t get thrown in jail or anything. They just come to their office and they tell them they’re investigating them. They know what’s going on and they’re like, “Well, look, we want to talk to you. You’re going to be indicted.” “Okay.”
So she comes to me. Well, actually Pete came to me and said, “Look, Matt, can you refinance our house and get us 75,000 out to pay our attorney?” I said, “No problem.” Gretchen gives me W-2s, pay stubs. The whole thing’s fake. I refinance. I get a second mortgage on her house. $75,000, they pay their attorney.
Their attorney immediately says, “You need to wear a wire on this guy. He just got you $75,000. I don’t know how you got $75,000. The attorney knows something’s wrong because the attorney’s like, “Your whole mortgage company was just shut down. There’s no way you could borrow $75,000.” So he is like, “This guy’s doing fraudulent stuff.” And she says, “Yes, of course he is.” And he says, “You need to work with the FBI, wear a wire against this guy.”
So she calls me one day and says, “Listen, I got to talk to you. The FBI is asking questions about you.” And I go, “What?” And she goes, “Yeah.” I was like, “Meet me at the pizza place down the street. So don’t come into my office,” because everybody knows she’s been indicted. Everybody in her office quit. When the FBI shows up and gives you a business card and announces they’re the FBI, everybody quits. So I said, “Don’t come here.” Because they already know they’re already concerned.
So I go and I meet her and Pete, and we sit down at a restaurant, a little pizzeria. I sit down and she starts telling me that the FBI is asking questions about me. And I’m like, “Well, what are you talking about? What are they asking?” And she goes, “Look, they came in, they took all our files.” And I was like, “I didn’t know any of this.” I’m like, ” When did this happen?” She’s like, “A couple of weeks ago and they have some of your files.”
Because I had closed several loans for my wife at the time. We were buying rental properties. My wife didn’t have a job. So it’s all fraud. But I could not close those loans at my mortgage company because I own the property. So I’m selling those properties. I bought properties, renovated them, and sold them to my wife to get around something called seasoning.
Seasoning says you have to wait six months to a year to refinance at the market value. Otherwise, if you want to refinance, that’s fine, but you have to refinance at the price you purchased the property at. But I bought these properties for 80 or 100,000, renovated them, sold them for two, 300,000 to my wife, who didn’t even get a big mortgage. We were just trying to get around a guideline. But my wife was not working, and I provided W-2s and pay stubs.
So when she says all this, she says, “They’re looking at the loans you gave me, at your wife’s loans.” And I went, “Oh my God.” I said, “Well, you didn’t tell them that the W-2s were fake, did you? You didn’t tell them the pay stubs were fake, did you? You didn’t tell them that the down payments were? You didn’t tell them that we were married, did you?” I mean, just absolutely buried myself.
And as I’m telling her this, I kind of caught myself and I went, “Okay, wait, wait, wait a minute. Look. Okay, here’s what you’re going to tell them. You’re going to tell them you never met her. She called on the phone.” I start trying to devise a plan that will answer their questions without getting my wife in trouble or them in trouble. And if nobody cooperates, the whole thing should shut down. It doesn’t go anywhere. There’s nowhere for them to go if everybody just kind of stonewalls them.
So as I’m saying all this, Gretchen says, “Matt, we can’t lie to the FBI.” And I go, “What are you are you talking about? You’re already lying to the FBI. I mean, you’ve been lying to the FBI. I mean, I just refinanced your house.” And before I can really say anything, Pete jumps up, her husband stands up, and he says, “We’ve never lied to the FBI. We may not have told them everything, but we’ve never lied.” And I thought, “Who are you talking to?”
I know that’s not true. So you’re not saying that for my benefit. So I kind of look at them and I’m like, “What?” And I remember looking down, and this may mean nothing, but both of their cell phones were right next to me, right? And I remember they were probably just wearing wires. But I just remember thinking, “Those cell phones are microphones.”
They probably weren’t. But I remember thinking, “Oh, wow.” And I looked at her and I went, “Wow.” And I said, “Well, I hope you’re going to get something for this.” She immediately starts crying and she says, “Matt, I’m sorry. I have a kid. I can’t go to jail.”
Lex Fridman
Do you have kids at that point?
Do you have kids at that point?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, I have a kid. I have a kid. And I was like, “Wow.”
Yeah, I have a kid. I have a kid. And I was like, “Wow.”
Lex Fridman
What have you learned about friendship from that? Loyalty?
What have you learned about friendship from that? Loyalty?
Matthew Cox
Oh, there’s no… It’s sweet.
Oh, there’s no… It’s sweet.
Lex Fridman
That must have hurt.
That must have hurt.
Matthew Cox
It’s cute. I mean, I love the idea of it.
It’s cute. I mean, I love the idea of it.
Lex Fridman
You don’t think that?
You don’t think that?
Matthew Cox
No. I’ll tell you why. So I go back to my office. I remember I told her, I said, “Tell the FBI agent to call me on the phone. Do not come to my office.” So I go back, I’m still trying to figure out how to weather this, right? I go back, I sit down. The phone rings. My secretary comes in and says, “Hey, Agent,” I’ll never forget the guy’s name, “Agent Scott Gale with the FBI.” And I was like, “Okay, he’s on the phone.”
No. I’ll tell you why. So I go back to my office. I remember I told her, I said, “Tell the FBI agent to call me on the phone. Do not come to my office.” So I go back, I’m still trying to figure out how to weather this, right? I go back, I sit down. The phone rings. My secretary comes in and says, “Hey, Agent,” I’ll never forget the guy’s name, “Agent Scott Gale with the FBI.” And I was like, “Okay, he’s on the phone.”
She’s standing there. I was like, “Close the door. Get out and close it.” She’s like. So I get on the phone. He asked me if I’ll come down. I said, “Yeah, absolutely. Let’s schedule it for next Tuesday.” I put it off four or five days. I go to my brother-in-law immediately, who’s a lawyer. And he says, “Oh, yeah.” I don’t really tell him exactly what’s going on, but I tell him, “This is what’s happening kind of and I may be in trouble. I need a federal defense attorney.”
I don’t even know what a federal defense, I don’t even know the difference. But he said, “You need a federal defense attorney. It’s the FBI.” So we meet a couple lawyers. I end up getting a lawyer. I give him 75 grand. Initially, he had me convinced I was probably going to go to jail for a few years, but really that’s what they kind of do to justify you giving them $75,000.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Matthew Cox
But the more I thought about it and read, he gave me the guidelines, that supposedly the fraud that I had committed and the guidelines that oversaw that. And I read it and I was like, “I’m not really in trouble here because I’m looking at a felony, but I’m not going to go to jail.” Because there was no potential for the bank to lose money.
But the more I thought about it and read, he gave me the guidelines, that supposedly the fraud that I had committed and the guidelines that oversaw that. And I read it and I was like, “I’m not really in trouble here because I’m looking at a felony, but I’m not going to go to jail.” Because there was no potential for the bank to lose money.
Because I bought the house with a hard money loan and then I renovated it with my own cash. And when I sold it, it appraised at 250,000. My ex-wife borrowed 180. So there’s plenty of equity. If the whole thing had gone into foreclosure, they still would’ve got their money back. And to be honest, by the time all of this happened, there was only three properties. It was five, but we’d already sold a few. At this point, we’d just sold another two. There’s like one or two properties left.
So at that moment, we were selling them. So I was like, “No,” I kind of argue with him. But then he wanted 75 grand. I gave him 75 grand. And then he comes back and he says, “Good news. There was no potential fraud. So I can get you three years.” Now here’s the thing, here’s what I always kind of look back at. When I first went into his office, he said, “Listen, you haven’t been indicted yet. I spoke with the FBI, I spoke with the US attorney, they believe, and they’ve been told…”
He said, “Look, they didn’t tell me exactly what they have, but they said what the evidence that they have on you based on two confidential informants, that you cannot go to trial.” And I was like, “Right.” of course I knew that one. And I was like, “Okay.” He said, “But you haven’t been indicted yet and they are fairly certain that you’re running a mill, right? A fraud mill over there, and that you guys are churning out fraudulent loans.”
“Now they can’t come and raid your office and do anything about it yet because so far they only have you. But here’s what I’m saying,” he said, “I can keep you from being indicted. It’s called a pretrial intervention where we go in and what we’ll do is you go in, talk to the FBI, you go grab a bunch of your mortgage broker’s most egregious files. Grab them, bring those files to the FBI. Go work with the FBI, they will indict them and you will not be indicted.”
And I said, which I kick myself to this day. I said, “Absolutely not. I’m not going to snitch on them. I’m not going to cooperate. I’m not going to,” I’d seen the Godfather, you’re not supposed to cooperate. You’re supposed to be loyal. “I’m not going to do any of that.” And so I say all of this where looking back, if I could go back in time, I would’ve gone into our weekly meeting with a dolly and I would’ve walked in front of everybody and scooped up two or three of the file cabinets and put them in the back of a truck…
Matthew Cox
… of everybody and scooped up two or three of the file cabinets and put them in the back of a truck and said, “Listen, you guys are going to be talking to the FBI soon. I suggest you get attorneys.” And I would’ve driven off but I didn’t. I thought, “No, be loyal. Don’t do that.” And what happened was when the other thing falls apart, when the next scam falls apart, every one of these people go to the FBI. Like they’re not even coming to them. These guys are going to the FBI with lawyers. “I want to cooperate. I want to tell you what Cox did. I want to help. I want to” … and I’m thinking I never had to get indicted to begin with.
… of everybody and scooped up two or three of the file cabinets and put them in the back of a truck and said, “Listen, you guys are going to be talking to the FBI soon. I suggest you get attorneys.” And I would’ve driven off but I didn’t. I thought, “No, be loyal. Don’t do that.” And what happened was when the other thing falls apart, when the next scam falls apart, every one of these people go to the FBI. Like they’re not even coming to them. These guys are going to the FBI with lawyers. “I want to cooperate. I want to tell you what Cox did. I want to help. I want to” … and I’m thinking I never had to get indicted to begin with.
Interviewer
So you think that most of these people, from your experience, are going to sacrifice all integrity. That’s a funny word, sacrifice-
So you think that most of these people, from your experience, are going to sacrifice all integrity. That’s a funny word, sacrifice-
Matthew Cox
I’m not sure that applies to this, but that’s all right.
I’m not sure that applies to this, but that’s all right.
Interviewer
They’re going to sacrifice friendships and loyalty just to save their own ass.
They’re going to sacrifice friendships and loyalty just to save their own ass.
Matthew Cox
Yeah. I only had one person that did not talk to the FBI. I had one person that every time the FBI or the Secret Service went to that person’s door, she said, “Don’t come to my house again. I don’t have anything to say about Matt. I have nothing to do with any of this. Talk to my lawyer.” And this happened over and over again. And that’s my ex-wife. She’s a gangster.
Yeah. I only had one person that did not talk to the FBI. I had one person that every time the FBI or the Secret Service went to that person’s door, she said, “Don’t come to my house again. I don’t have anything to say about Matt. I have nothing to do with any of this. Talk to my lawyer.” And this happened over and over again. And that’s my ex-wife. She’s a gangster.
Omerta: Code of silence
Interviewer
So are there people in this world you trusted or you still trust?
So are there people in this world you trusted or you still trust?
Matthew Cox
The problem is eventually I cooperate. And at the time, I didn’t want to cooperate. I didn’t believe in cooperation. But after seeing how many people cooperate and the way the system is set up, I think that my understanding of loyalty is vastly more realistic now. And I think that if you are committing crime, if you are absolutely like the things I did, I did a bunch of scumbag things. I mean, I’m not killing people, but I’m doing scumbag things. I’m lying, cheating, stealing. I’m a thief. You boil down to it. That’s what I am. So you can’t go around behaving like a scumbag, dealing with scumbags and then expect those same scumbags to suddenly abide by some kind of a street code and not roll over on you. And it does happen, but it’s in the 90 percentile of people that cooperate, 90 something percent. And people cooperate when they’re not even looking at any real time.
The problem is eventually I cooperate. And at the time, I didn’t want to cooperate. I didn’t believe in cooperation. But after seeing how many people cooperate and the way the system is set up, I think that my understanding of loyalty is vastly more realistic now. And I think that if you are committing crime, if you are absolutely like the things I did, I did a bunch of scumbag things. I mean, I’m not killing people, but I’m doing scumbag things. I’m lying, cheating, stealing. I’m a thief. You boil down to it. That’s what I am. So you can’t go around behaving like a scumbag, dealing with scumbags and then expect those same scumbags to suddenly abide by some kind of a street code and not roll over on you. And it does happen, but it’s in the 90 percentile of people that cooperate, 90 something percent. And people cooperate when they’re not even looking at any real time.
So if you’re looking at 30 years, and especially after going to prison, you go to prison and it’s like this guy’s a standup guy over here, he got 30 years. He could have cooperated against all of his co-defendants but he didn’t. Nobody comes to see him. His wife divorced him. His kids ended up in foster care. His friends are cleaning out his house. Nobody puts money on his books. Nobody comes to see him. Nobody answers his phone. Nothing. He took 30 years. Most of those guys turned around. They end up getting indicted for other things. Years later, they cooperate. And the best thing this guy’s got going for him is that he can walk around and say, well, he’s a stand-up guy. That guy’s going to the same halfway house as me. He’s going to do 30 years where I’m going to do 10.
Interviewer
A stand-up guy meaning he never snitched.
A stand-up guy meaning he never snitched.
Matthew Cox
Right.
Right.
Interviewer
And so everybody’s seeing this example and saying, “Well, I’m going to snitch then.” But it sounds like what people are doing is they’re virtue signaling, like they would never snitch and actually do secretly.
And so everybody’s seeing this example and saying, “Well, I’m going to snitch then.” But it sounds like what people are doing is they’re virtue signaling, like they would never snitch and actually do secretly.
Matthew Cox
I mean I remember I talked to one of the COs at the prison one time and I said, “Shit, 50% of the guys here snitched.” He goes, “It’s more than that.” “But listen,” he goes, “a hundred percent of them are lying about it.” He said, “There’s nobody here that’s going to tell you they snitched. Nobody.”
I mean I remember I talked to one of the COs at the prison one time and I said, “Shit, 50% of the guys here snitched.” He goes, “It’s more than that.” “But listen,” he goes, “a hundred percent of them are lying about it.” He said, “There’s nobody here that’s going to tell you they snitched. Nobody.”
So there’s guys, tons of them that cooperate. If 80-90% of defendants cooperate, you start doing the math. And if you ask 10 guys in prison, all of them say, “I didn’t cooperate. I didn’t cooperate. I didn’t cooperate.” Okay. Well, you ask a hundred. “I didn’t cooperate.” Nobody’s going to say, “I cooperated.”
Interviewer
Does that break your heart a little bit that people back stab each other like this?
Does that break your heart a little bit that people back stab each other like this?
Matthew Cox
It does. It does but I have such a low opinion of people. You know what I’m saying? I don’t expect … It’s not that I don’t like people. It’s that I just don’t expect anything of them. I don’t expect you to look out for me. There was a time when I did. I thought, “I look out for you. You should look out for me.” But I just don’t expect that anymore.
It does. It does but I have such a low opinion of people. You know what I’m saying? I don’t expect … It’s not that I don’t like people. It’s that I just don’t expect anything of them. I don’t expect you to look out for me. There was a time when I did. I thought, “I look out for you. You should look out for me.” But I just don’t expect that anymore.
Interviewer
See, but I think humanity flourishes because there is a lot of people out there that do the thing that is difficult to do in terms of integrity.
See, but I think humanity flourishes because there is a lot of people out there that do the thing that is difficult to do in terms of integrity.
Matthew Cox
That may be but these aren’t people with integrity. These are criminals. If these were decent human beings, and all of them will tell you, “Well, why’d you do that?” “Oh, I was a drug addict” or “I needed the money.” Well, if you were a decent human being, you would have gotten off the drugs. You would’ve gone and gotten three jobs. You can work 80 hours a week. I’ve done it. You can work 84, 85, 80. You can work 90 hours a week. You can do that. “Oh, I did it for my kids.” No, you’re lazy. You could have worked three jobs for your kids. Instead, you decided to sell methamphetamine. “Well, I was addicted.” You could have gotten off meth. It wasn’t important. It was the easy way out. You’re not someone with integrity.
That may be but these aren’t people with integrity. These are criminals. If these were decent human beings, and all of them will tell you, “Well, why’d you do that?” “Oh, I was a drug addict” or “I needed the money.” Well, if you were a decent human being, you would have gotten off the drugs. You would’ve gone and gotten three jobs. You can work 80 hours a week. I’ve done it. You can work 84, 85, 80. You can work 90 hours a week. You can do that. “Oh, I did it for my kids.” No, you’re lazy. You could have worked three jobs for your kids. Instead, you decided to sell methamphetamine. “Well, I was addicted.” You could have gotten off meth. It wasn’t important. It was the easy way out. You’re not someone with integrity.
So for you to sit there and say, “Hey, I’m going to act like a scumbag, but now I got caught or you got caught and I don’t want you to tell on me.” Well, you’re a guy that robs banks. You stick guns in people’s faces. You kidnap people, you torture people. You sell drugs. You’re not a moral, ethical person, but you want everybody else to hold up to some ethical code while you’re robbing grandma. That’s not right. So I get the whole omerta code, and there was a time when I was delusional enough to believe that. But after going through it, no. And after going through it multiple times, no.
Interviewer
I have to really think about that. I deeply appreciate your honesty on this. There’s all kinds of criminals in this world, and they all have all kinds of stories. And your story is one of … I don’t know if it came from desperation versus a love of this kind of game. Like wasn’t part of it an attraction to the creative aspect of this, of breaking the rules when nobody else can and you figure out a way to do it?
I have to really think about that. I deeply appreciate your honesty on this. There’s all kinds of criminals in this world, and they all have all kinds of stories. And your story is one of … I don’t know if it came from desperation versus a love of this kind of game. Like wasn’t part of it an attraction to the creative aspect of this, of breaking the rules when nobody else can and you figure out a way to do it?
Matthew Cox
I think initially it was I needed the money. That’s the first thing. You say, “Oh, okay. Well, I need” … and if you ask most guys, “Oh, well, man, I needed the money.” You needed the money. And I definitely needed the money. But then you get $50,000 in your bank and then you get a hundred, and then it’s 200, and then it’s half a million and then it’s a million. And what the hell are you still committing fraud for? You’ve got half a million or a million dollars in the bank or worth of real estate, or you’re making five, $10,000 a month just in rental income. Why are you still committing fraud?
I think initially it was I needed the money. That’s the first thing. You say, “Oh, okay. Well, I need” … and if you ask most guys, “Oh, well, man, I needed the money.” You needed the money. And I definitely needed the money. But then you get $50,000 in your bank and then you get a hundred, and then it’s 200, and then it’s half a million and then it’s a million. And what the hell are you still committing fraud for? You’ve got half a million or a million dollars in the bank or worth of real estate, or you’re making five, $10,000 a month just in rental income. Why are you still committing fraud?
So I think it morphs into the creativity, in part, for me. And two, it was a chance for me to prove to everybody how smart I was. It was done out of desperation initially, and then it just turned into pure narcissistic arrogance. “Look at me, look at how I can do things that nobody else can do. Look how smart I am. I just walked into Bank of America, handed them seven documents that were all fraudulent and they cut me a check for $250,000. Like, wow, I’m amazing. And guess what? They’re never going to get their check. And they won’t even know where to start to try and find the person because they’re looking for a phantom.”
And you feel great. I felt great. I felt like James Bond. I felt like 007. It was amazing. And it feeded my need to feel important, even if that was a lie, because all that success was just a lie.
Interviewer
Well, no, you were good at it.
Well, no, you were good at it.
Matthew Cox
I was good at it, but it’s not-
I was good at it, but it’s not-
Interviewer
It was illegal.
It was illegal.
Matthew Cox
It’s not like I’m Elon Musk. You know what I’m saying? It’s not like I’m an exceptional human. I’m an exceptional human being at a horrific thing, at committing fraud.
It’s not like I’m Elon Musk. You know what I’m saying? It’s not like I’m an exceptional human. I’m an exceptional human being at a horrific thing, at committing fraud.
Interviewer
Well, the question is how many people are getting hurt? Because-
Well, the question is how many people are getting hurt? Because-
Matthew Cox
The thing is, initially, nobody got hurt. That’s the thing. Nobody ever lost any money directly. I didn’t go and say, “Give me $50,000” and I ran off with your money. I wasn’t doing that. And that was a great justification. But at some point, and we’ll get into that, I take off on the run and people do lose money. I didn’t take that money directly. And for some reason, in my sick mind or whatever the case may be, that seems like a distinction to me that makes me feel okay, is that I never said, “Give me 300, give me $10,000,” and I ran off with it.
The thing is, initially, nobody got hurt. That’s the thing. Nobody ever lost any money directly. I didn’t go and say, “Give me $50,000” and I ran off with your money. I wasn’t doing that. And that was a great justification. But at some point, and we’ll get into that, I take off on the run and people do lose money. I didn’t take that money directly. And for some reason, in my sick mind or whatever the case may be, that seems like a distinction to me that makes me feel okay, is that I never said, “Give me 300, give me $10,000,” and I ran off with it.
But I put people in a position where I damaged the title to their house and they had to go get a lawyer to fix that and so they had to go pay a lawyer $10,000. So I absolutely caused that person … To me, it’s you’re a victim and I owe you that money. And it was a shitty thing to do because, even at the time, I was like, “Oh, they’ll make a couple of phone calls, it’ll be fine.” It wasn’t fine. And if I had really put any thought into it at all, I would’ve known it’s going to going to really affect these people. And those people had done nothing wrong with the exception of trusting me. They rented me their house or they owner financed their house. They made the mistake of bumping into me and now they owe $10,000, $20,000 and I’m sure a ton of anguish.
Interviewer
So what happened when you were caught that first time?
So what happened when you were caught that first time?
Matthew Cox
So I was caught. I got three years probation. I took the probation.
So I was caught. I got three years probation. I took the probation.
Interviewer
What does that involve?
What does that involve?
Matthew Cox
Initially, it was just a slap on the wrist.
Initially, it was just a slap on the wrist.
Interviewer
Were you allowed to still practice-
Were you allowed to still practice-
Matthew Cox
Okay. So I wasn’t. I couldn’t own the mortgage company anymore. That was a good question because you would think wouldn’t it be great if I could keep on going? But what they said was you have to forfeit your brokerage license and your brokerage business license. And what I did was I transferred my brokerage business license to a guy that essentially bought my business. They allowed me to work as a consultant in the mortgage industry because my lawyer goes to the judge and says, “What else can he do?” And so I have a friend, his name’s Dave Walker. He was a CPA. He came in and he bought my business and he paid me like $9,000 a month and that covered my bills. My wife and I got divorced, so she’s my ex-wife.
Okay. So I wasn’t. I couldn’t own the mortgage company anymore. That was a good question because you would think wouldn’t it be great if I could keep on going? But what they said was you have to forfeit your brokerage license and your brokerage business license. And what I did was I transferred my brokerage business license to a guy that essentially bought my business. They allowed me to work as a consultant in the mortgage industry because my lawyer goes to the judge and says, “What else can he do?” And so I have a friend, his name’s Dave Walker. He was a CPA. He came in and he bought my business and he paid me like $9,000 a month and that covered my bills. My wife and I got divorced, so she’s my ex-wife.
And I don’t know what to do. I could have … You look back and it’s like I could have claimed bankruptcy. I could have moved into my parents’ spare room, something like that, because I lost everything in my divorce. I had huge child support payment. Not that that has anything to do with my ex-wife. I absolutely signed up for that. I wanted to pay that but it was a chunk of change. So we’re talking about a couple thousand dollars a month for child support. She got all of the apartments that we had. We had about a million, million and a half dollars’ worth of apartments, which isn’t a lot now, but that’s probably five or six million dollars now. So she got all the apartments, so she got everything. So now I’m sitting here/ I can’t be a mortgage broker. I can get my $9,000, but I have to help this guy run this company, train people, do that sort of thing.
So what I decided to do was I was going to start flipping houses.
Interviewer
Legitimately or not?
Legitimately or not?
Matthew Cox
Well, initially, I thought about doing it legitimately but at the same time I was also in the middle of figuring out how to make these synthetic identities. So I’m making the payments every month. Remember? Two months in, three months. No credit scores. No credit scores. No credit scores. And I’m also saying I’m going to start buying houses, renovate them, sell them. So the truth is we actually renovated probably one house completely. I remember it was on 26th Street. We renovated the house completely-
Well, initially, I thought about doing it legitimately but at the same time I was also in the middle of figuring out how to make these synthetic identities. So I’m making the payments every month. Remember? Two months in, three months. No credit scores. No credit scores. No credit scores. And I’m also saying I’m going to start buying houses, renovate them, sell them. So the truth is we actually renovated probably one house completely. I remember it was on 26th Street. We renovated the house completely-
Interviewer
On the outside and the inside?
On the outside and the inside?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, outside, inside. It’s done. It’s good.
Yeah, outside, inside. It’s done. It’s good.
Interviewer
Okay, great.
Okay, great.
Matthew Cox
Me and this guy, actually Dave, Dave Walker, the guy that bought my business. So we renovate it and it just so happens at the same time, I go to pull credit one day and, wow, 700-plus credit scores. And I went we don’t have to sell this thing at all. I can sell it and put it in this guy’s name and let him refinance it. So that’s what we did. I ended up selling it to this synthetic identity.
Me and this guy, actually Dave, Dave Walker, the guy that bought my business. So we renovate it and it just so happens at the same time, I go to pull credit one day and, wow, 700-plus credit scores. And I went we don’t have to sell this thing at all. I can sell it and put it in this guy’s name and let him refinance it. So that’s what we did. I ended up selling it to this synthetic identity.
Interviewer
Do you remember the first synthetic identity, the name?
Do you remember the first synthetic identity, the name?
Matthew Cox
The first one was a Joel Cologne, and then I started getting creative because the ones after that, I started naming … So I had Joel Cologne and an Alan Duncan, but then I … Do you remember the movie, Reservoir Dogs?
The first one was a Joel Cologne, and then I started getting creative because the ones after that, I started naming … So I had Joel Cologne and an Alan Duncan, but then I … Do you remember the movie, Reservoir Dogs?
Interviewer
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Matthew Cox
So I started naming the characters after guys in the Reservoir Dogs. So I had a James Red, I had a Michael White, Lee Black. I had William Blue, David Silver, Brandon Green. So then I start developing these guys. Now I thought, “Oh, forget those normal things. I’m going with the Reservoir Dogs.” And I thought it was so cute too.
So I started naming the characters after guys in the Reservoir Dogs. So I had a James Red, I had a Michael White, Lee Black. I had William Blue, David Silver, Brandon Green. So then I start developing these guys. Now I thought, “Oh, forget those normal things. I’m going with the Reservoir Dogs.” And I thought it was so cute too.
Interviewer
Do you think, in retrospect, that was a mistake?
Do you think, in retrospect, that was a mistake?
Matthew Cox
It was so stupid. That was just … There’s so many things, so many mistakes I made. I mean within the fraud there are mistakes I made, but other than just the overall committing fraud, but it was just like I thought it was so cute. And then you get in front of the judge and the judge is hearing about the Reservoir Dogs and Mr. Green and Mr. Black, Mr. White, Mr. This, Mr. That. And he’s looking at me just like, “You jackass.” And what am I saying? I’m like, “Yeah, I thought that was cute.” But nothing’s cute. Plus I’m making fake banks.
It was so stupid. That was just … There’s so many things, so many mistakes I made. I mean within the fraud there are mistakes I made, but other than just the overall committing fraud, but it was just like I thought it was so cute. And then you get in front of the judge and the judge is hearing about the Reservoir Dogs and Mr. Green and Mr. Black, Mr. White, Mr. This, Mr. That. And he’s looking at me just like, “You jackass.” And what am I saying? I’m like, “Yeah, I thought that was cute.” But nothing’s cute. Plus I’m making fake banks.
Interviewer
What’s the purpose of the fake banks?
What’s the purpose of the fake banks?
Matthew Cox
Well, sometimes you have to have your down payment in the bank. So they want three months’ worth of bank statements to see that, “Hey, he’s got his $50,000 in the bank.” And then the more properties you buy, they start to want to see what’s called reserves. They want to make sure that you can pay all your mortgage payments. If this guy loses his job, can this guy maintain all these mortgage payments for the next six months? And, see, they do that and they think you’re going to go, “Oh, no, he can’t do it.” They go, “Well, then we won’t lend it.” Well, when they do that to me, I go, “Of course, I do. Of course he’s got it. Let me send you over the bank statements. Oh, you want to call the bank? Call them.”
Well, sometimes you have to have your down payment in the bank. So they want three months’ worth of bank statements to see that, “Hey, he’s got his $50,000 in the bank.” And then the more properties you buy, they start to want to see what’s called reserves. They want to make sure that you can pay all your mortgage payments. If this guy loses his job, can this guy maintain all these mortgage payments for the next six months? And, see, they do that and they think you’re going to go, “Oh, no, he can’t do it.” They go, “Well, then we won’t lend it.” Well, when they do that to me, I go, “Of course, I do. Of course he’s got it. Let me send you over the bank statements. Oh, you want to call the bank? Call them.”
Interviewer
So there’s a phone number. There’s a website.
So there’s a phone number. There’s a website.
Matthew Cox
Yes. You can call. We’ll get on there. I’ll do the whole … “Hold on. Okay. What’s the name again? Do you have the account number? Hold on.” You wait a little bit and you come back. “Oh, okay, I got it here. I can’t tell you the exact amount right now, but what was his balance last month?” And you tell, “Oh, yep, that’s it. Exactly. Okay, thank you.” Click.
Yes. You can call. We’ll get on there. I’ll do the whole … “Hold on. Okay. What’s the name again? Do you have the account number? Hold on.” You wait a little bit and you come back. “Oh, okay, I got it here. I can’t tell you the exact amount right now, but what was his balance last month?” And you tell, “Oh, yep, that’s it. Exactly. Okay, thank you.” Click.
Interviewer
Would you do different voices or would you be-
Would you do different voices or would you be-
Matthew Cox
No, I’ve done different voices or I’d just have somebody else do it. Gretchen would’ve done it or one of the brokers. Susan would’ve done it, one of the brokers that worked for me, or Kelly or Johnny Moon. I have so many guys and they just get on the phone and they do it because they’re all doing something fraud and we’re all working together. So, “Hey, I need you to call this guy. I need you to call this guy and verify this and say” … “I’m at the bank? Okay, I’m at the bank. Okay, cool.” And they call back and-
No, I’ve done different voices or I’d just have somebody else do it. Gretchen would’ve done it or one of the brokers. Susan would’ve done it, one of the brokers that worked for me, or Kelly or Johnny Moon. I have so many guys and they just get on the phone and they do it because they’re all doing something fraud and we’re all working together. So, “Hey, I need you to call this guy. I need you to call this guy and verify this and say” … “I’m at the bank? Okay, I’m at the bank. Okay, cool.” And they call back and-
Interviewer
Does this feel like an organized system or was it more improv, just like dealing with the different situations?
Does this feel like an organized system or was it more improv, just like dealing with the different situations?
Matthew Cox
The government would definitely say it was organized. I always say it was … You’re a bunch of, you’re just a bunch of guys it. You’re joking around with everybody and you’re helping each other, and it’s not like everybody’s kicking up to Tommy.
The government would definitely say it was organized. I always say it was … You’re a bunch of, you’re just a bunch of guys it. You’re joking around with everybody and you’re helping each other, and it’s not like everybody’s kicking up to Tommy.
Interviewer
And then all these new puzzles come up and you figure out ways to solve these puzzles.
And then all these new puzzles come up and you figure out ways to solve these puzzles.
Matthew Cox
Right. You go in and you say, “Hey, I’ve got this loan. I need to get this loan. If this guy’s trying to buy this house and I need a loan that looks like this, where can we go?” And by the way, they cannot order a copy of his tax returns, so you don’t want to have to sign what’s called a 4506. So they’re like, “Oh, okay. Listen, so-and-so’s got a program.” And you go back and forth, “but you have to have this much in reserves. But you got the bank?” “Yeah, yeah, I got the bank. I could do that.” So you go in and you throw it out there to five or six guys and you’re going to come up with an answer.
Right. You go in and you say, “Hey, I’ve got this loan. I need to get this loan. If this guy’s trying to buy this house and I need a loan that looks like this, where can we go?” And by the way, they cannot order a copy of his tax returns, so you don’t want to have to sign what’s called a 4506. So they’re like, “Oh, okay. Listen, so-and-so’s got a program.” And you go back and forth, “but you have to have this much in reserves. But you got the bank?” “Yeah, yeah, I got the bank. I could do that.” So you go in and you throw it out there to five or six guys and you’re going to come up with an answer.
Interviewer
So you’re on probation here. Just to self-reflect, did you start doing this while on probation because of the money or because it gave you meaning?
So you’re on probation here. Just to self-reflect, did you start doing this while on probation because of the money or because it gave you meaning?
Matthew Cox
God, I mean a big part of that, the reason is I did not want to move back in with my parents and I didn’t want my father to see me struggling, and I didn’t want him to … My success, he had no idea, my success had been the first time he’d ever really been proud of me. Does that make sense?
God, I mean a big part of that, the reason is I did not want to move back in with my parents and I didn’t want my father to see me struggling, and I didn’t want him to … My success, he had no idea, my success had been the first time he’d ever really been proud of me. Does that make sense?
Interviewer
Your financial success?
Your financial success?
Matthew Cox
Yes.
Yes.
Interviewer
At which point? When was the first time you told him you did something and it was like you could sense him being proud?
At which point? When was the first time you told him you did something and it was like you could sense him being proud?
Matthew Cox
Oh, when I became a mortgage broker. When I became a mortgage broker and I went to work for the company, and we’re talking about within a week I got a client. Three days later, I got a client. A week later, got a client. Two days later, got a client. I closed four loans my first month and my dad was like, “Well, how much money are you going to make?” And I’m like, “Well, I’m charging this much, this. I got a point on the back. I got this. Boom. I’m thinking I’m going to walk home after taxes like 10, 11,000.” “Jesus God Almighty, are you serious? Well, see. Don’t start counting your chickens before that.” And then, whatever, three weeks later, four weeks later, boom, I got a check. It’s like $9,000 or something. And then the next month, it’s 12 and the next month it’s 16. And then they make me a manager and it just-
Oh, when I became a mortgage broker. When I became a mortgage broker and I went to work for the company, and we’re talking about within a week I got a client. Three days later, I got a client. A week later, got a client. Two days later, got a client. I closed four loans my first month and my dad was like, “Well, how much money are you going to make?” And I’m like, “Well, I’m charging this much, this. I got a point on the back. I got this. Boom. I’m thinking I’m going to walk home after taxes like 10, 11,000.” “Jesus God Almighty, are you serious? Well, see. Don’t start counting your chickens before that.” And then, whatever, three weeks later, four weeks later, boom, I got a check. It’s like $9,000 or something. And then the next month, it’s 12 and the next month it’s 16. And then they make me a manager and it just-
Interviewer
He didn’t know any of it was illegitimate.
He didn’t know any of it was illegitimate.
Matthew Cox
No, he thinks, “My son, he’s brilliant. He’s great. He’s wonderful.” Was certainly not proud of me prior to that. But my dad was athletic. He was extremely bright. I mean brilliant. And I was a kid who had to be put into special schools, who barely graduated high school, who ended up going to college and getting a degree in fine arts because I was never going to be able to get a degree in business. It wasn’t going to happen.
No, he thinks, “My son, he’s brilliant. He’s great. He’s wonderful.” Was certainly not proud of me prior to that. But my dad was athletic. He was extremely bright. I mean brilliant. And I was a kid who had to be put into special schools, who barely graduated high school, who ended up going to college and getting a degree in fine arts because I was never going to be able to get a degree in business. It wasn’t going to happen.
So when I graduated college, I remember, with the degree in Fine Arts, he said, “The best thing you could do with that is maybe you could draw caricatures at Disney World.” You know what I’m saying? Which wasn’t a compliment. It wasn’t like, “Hey, you could draw” … And then I turned around and I tried to go to work for State Farm Insurance which is who he worked for. He worked for them for 40 something years, and I failed the aptitude test. So then I went and worked for another insurance company and I was an insurance adjuster, but I couldn’t keep up with the workload. Then I end up working construction. I’m still barely paying my bills. That’s basically where my dad felt like that’s … He was polite to me. We were cordial. But yeah, I think he felt he deserved a better kid.
Interviewer
Well, when you started doing mortgages, that’s when he was like-
Well, when you started doing mortgages, that’s when he was like-
Matthew Cox
Of course. He was like-
Of course. He was like-
Interviewer
This kid’s got something.
This kid’s got something.
Matthew Cox
I was driving a new … I just pulled in in a new car and I just bought a house that was four or five blocks away from his house, from where I grew up, from where he lived at that time, six blocks away from where my sister’s married to her lawyer husband. I’m doing pretty good. And then, within three months, my new wife, we buy a quadplex, and then we’re buying a triplex and another quadplex and a 10 unit and a duplex and another duplex and a quadplex. And it’s like what the hell’s going on? This guy is blowing up. He’s going on vacation here and vacation here.
I was driving a new … I just pulled in in a new car and I just bought a house that was four or five blocks away from his house, from where I grew up, from where he lived at that time, six blocks away from where my sister’s married to her lawyer husband. I’m doing pretty good. And then, within three months, my new wife, we buy a quadplex, and then we’re buying a triplex and another quadplex and a 10 unit and a duplex and another duplex and a quadplex. And it’s like what the hell’s going on? This guy is blowing up. He’s going on vacation here and vacation here.
So when the FBI comes in and they indict me, and I take the three years’ probation, probably the worst thing in the world other than going to prison would’ve been just having to just sell everything and go move in and start over and sell used cars. Not that there’s anything wrong with selling used cars, but I just felt like I just didn’t want to disappoint him any more than I already had. So I thought, “I’m going to flip houses and then I’ll start maybe a development company. So I’ll buy some vacant lots and all this and that.” The problem is these houses I’m buying for 50,000, if I fix them up and sell them, maybe I make $20,000, $25,000. And then you got to find a qualified borrower. It’s very hard to find a qualified borrower that wants to live in Ybor City back then.
Fake ID’s
I still think it’s rough but those same houses are going for three and 400,000. So I’m buying houses. I got to get qualified borrowers. I do all the renovations. It’s a nightmare. Looking back, it’s like, “Well, then you got to bite the bullet. It’s just what you have to do.” I didn’t want to do that. I didn’t want to do it. Whether it was laziness or, I don’t know, I just thought, “I’m good at this. I’m going to run. I’m just going to start running a scam. I’m going to figure out how to drive the prices up, buy the houses for 50, record them at 200,000, and then have these synthetic identities, buy all the properties, refinance them, pull out the cash, make six months’ worth of payments, let them all go into foreclosure.” And that really, really started working well, very well.
I had one time where I had a guy, it was James Red, the synthetic identity was James Red and he had bought two or three houses, and there was somebody at the office who was friends of somebody who knew the title company where we were closing the loans, and he called her, her name was Mary, and said, “Mary, this guy, James Red, like Cox is doing something shady. James Red doesn’t even exist.” She goes and looks at her last couple files and she realizes, of course obviously, this guy never showed up. She remembers Cox picked up the files, and he’s saying he doesn’t exist. So she freaks out. She calls the mortgage broker. Mortgage broker calls me, mortgage broker calls me up and says, “Listen, Mary said she’s not closing the next loan unless James Red shows up.” And I went, “Wow, that’s a tough one.”
And she’s like, “Okay, so what do you want to do? Do you want to go to another title company?” We’re supposed to close in three days, two, three days. I said, “Well, I mean he’s going to have to show up then. I’ll figure it out. Give me a couple of days. Let me figure this out.” And she’s like, “Okay, well, I don’t know how that’s going to happen. He didn’t exist.” Keep in mind at this point I don’t need IDs. I don’t need a real ID. I figured out how to make a real ID. I could make one. I could take sandpaper and sand off the information on a regular ID, and then I would print the corrected information in reverse on a piece of transparency, and I would glue it over there and you could still see the holograms and stuff. It actually worked pretty good. It’s not going to pass mustard with a cop but somebody at the bank like I was able to go in and I would open a bank account with it.
Well, so one of the things I had done when I was closing these loans was I would go online and you have to pick a photo of somebody to put on the driver’s license. So I’m not making a fake ID for all these guys because I don’t need a fake ID for all these guys, not with my picture on it, but I need a copy of an ID, but I need a picture. Where do I get the picture? So I go to Hillsborough County’s arrest website, and I would find people that I knew that had been arrested. So I found a guy named Eric Tamargo who had been arrested. He had, I don’t know what it was, a DUI or domestic violence. I forget what it was but there was a picture of him.
So I print out the picture, I cut it up, I paste it onto a driver’s license, and I make a copy of it for James Red. That’s what I’ve been giving the title people. When I would close, I’d sign all the documents and I’d leave them that copy so that it looked like they made a copy of it. And then they would notarize all the documents, even though they’d never seen this person. They have a copy of his driver’s license. Everything’s signed. Cox said he signed it. It’s good, notarized. Here’s your check. So what I do is I think let me see if I can get Eric to do this. I knew he’d been to prison before, so I call up Eric and I remember one of my buddies like, “He’s never going to do this.” And I was like, “I think he will. I think he will.”
And that’s really that kind of like, “You think? What do you think? No.” “Let me try. Let me call him.” “I don’t know, bro.” That’s the kind of conversations you’re having but really, looking back-
Interviewer
I would love to hear the opener few sentences that you have with him.
I would love to hear the opener few sentences that you have with him.
Matthew Cox
I can tell you exactly what I said because it’s burned in my mind. He comes in. So what Eric was doing at that time, he was actually working for us. He worked for somebody else, but periodically we’d buy a house and we’d call him up and we’d say, “Hey, can you and your boss, can you guys come over and trim the trees of this house? Trim all the trees, take all the crap in the yard, clean it up?” They go, “Yeah, sure, no problem.” Because that’s what he did, worked for a handyman service. So they would come and they’d clean it up and they’d do that.
I can tell you exactly what I said because it’s burned in my mind. He comes in. So what Eric was doing at that time, he was actually working for us. He worked for somebody else, but periodically we’d buy a house and we’d call him up and we’d say, “Hey, can you and your boss, can you guys come over and trim the trees of this house? Trim all the trees, take all the crap in the yard, clean it up?” They go, “Yeah, sure, no problem.” Because that’s what he did, worked for a handyman service. So they would come and they’d clean it up and they’d do that.
So I said, “Can you come over?” And he goes, “Yeah.” So he comes to the office, whatever, a few hours later, and he comes in the conference room. I said, “Hey, Eric, what’s going on?” And he says, “How’s it going?” I said, “Listen, I’m going to tell you something. I need a favor.” He’s like, “Okay, cool. What is it?” I said, “You know all these houses we’ve been having you go and clean up?” He’s like, “Yeah.” “You painted that one house. You did this.” “Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know. I know.” “Right. So here’s what we’ve been doing. I’ve been buying these houses for $50,000, recording them for 200, and then I have these fake people buy them.” And I explain, I just lay it out for him and he’s like, “Wow.” He’s like, “Fucking, bro, that’s ingenious, man. That’s smart.” Like, “Wow.”
I was like, “Okay. Yeah, I know. That’s great. So here’s the thing.” I said, “The title company, who’s been closing some of these loans, and we have a closing in a couple of days, she wants this guy James Red to show up, and I need someone to show up as James Red.” And he goes, “Wow.” He goes, “Who are you going to get to do that?” And I was just thinking just like, “You’re not understanding. I’m not confiding in you because I need a friend.” And I looked at him, I said, “Well, I was thinking you might do it.” He was like, “That’s a big favor.” I said, “It is a big favor.” “I could be in a lot of trouble.” And I said, “I know.” And he goes, “Well, wait a minute. I can’t go.” He said, “You have to give these people a driver’s license. You said the driver’s licenses, you were using mugshots. You said she’s closed a couple of these. She’s seen this guy’s picture.”
And I go, “She has seen his picture.” I said, “The thing is for James Red, I pulled the mugshot offline of you when you were arrested a couple of years ago.” And he jumps up and he goes, “You motherfucker.” And I go, “Whoa, whoa.” I said, “Eric, wait a minute. Hold on, hold on.” I said, “Listen, I only did that because I knew if it came down to this moment, you were the only person that I knew that could pull this off, that’d have the balls to walk in and do it.” And he sat there and he went, “Yeah, you’re right. You’re right.” And I couldn’t believe he fell … Listen, this guy would beat the brakes off me.
He’s like five ten, five eleven. He’s boxed. He’s a big guy. So it’s like I’ve weathered that part of the storm. And he sat there and he goes, “Right, right.” And he goes, “Well, I’m not doing it for free. I’m not doing it for nothing.” I said, “No, bro, of course not.” He’s like, “You’re making a lot of money.” I said, “Well, keep in mind a lot of that money goes back in the property. It’s not like we’re walking away with” … I think I said tens of thousands. We’re really walking away with hundreds of thousands. “It’s not like we’re walking away with a bunch of money, Eric. We got to buy more properties. We got to keep it going. We got to make the payments.” “I know but still I could get in a lot of trouble.” I said, “I understand, bro.” I go, “Well, what do you want?”
And I remember thinking if he asked for more than 10 or 15,000, I’ll do it myself. We’ll just change title companies and we’ll go and I’ll do it myself. And he sat there and he went, “I want $500.” And I went “$500?” Listen, I almost started laughing. I put my hand over my mouth. I was like, “$ 500? It’s going to take you 30 minutes.” And he’s like, “I don’t care, bro. I could get in a lot of trouble.” I was like, “Well, I’m not paying you now. You got to sign first.” And he’s like, “Oh, you know I’ll sign. I’ll sign. I know you’re good for it.” For 500 bucks. I made a fake ID for him. He goes into the place, he signs James Red. Comes out.
What was funny about that was when we walked into the title company, we’re sitting in the lobby and Mary comes walking out, she looks at me and she goes, “Mr. Cox. I don’t know why you’re here.” She goes, “I told Kelly” … that was the broker … “I told the broker that I’m not closing the loan unless James Red shows up.” And Eric stands up on cue and he goes, “I’m James Red.” And she goes, “Hold on a second.” She runs in the back, comes back with a file, opens it up, looks at the picture, and she’s like, “Oh, I’m so sorry. Give me five minutes. I’ve got the file.” Prints up the docs. He goes in, signs.
And when we’re there, she’s passing out the checks, 5,000 here, 25,000 here, 35,000 here, 7,000 here, 6,000 here. So he sees all these checks and I’m like, “Oh, I got that. I have the construction company. No, no, no, I have that. I’ll take care of that. I’ll take care of that.” So I get all the checks and I leave. We go sit in my Audi and he sits down and he’s like, “Bro, that’s a lot of money.” “A lot of that money goes back into the properties, Eric.” And he’s like, “Ah, still, bro.” And I counted out 500 bucks. But listen, a week later-
Matthew Cox
And I counted out 500 bucks. But listen, a week later, we had another closing. So he comes in, I said, “Hey, bro.” He says, “Hey, what’s going on?” And I said, “I need you to do the James Red thing.” He goes, “Yeah, I’ve been thinking about that. I did that way too cheap.” I said, “I get it, man. Well, how much do you want? What do you want?” And I’m thinking, “If it’s more than 10 or 15, I’ll do it myself.” He sits there and he goes, “I want a thousand dollars.” I go, ” A thousand dollars, oh my God.” So, I gave him a thousand dollars and he did another one.
And I counted out 500 bucks. But listen, a week later, we had another closing. So he comes in, I said, “Hey, bro.” He says, “Hey, what’s going on?” And I said, “I need you to do the James Red thing.” He goes, “Yeah, I’ve been thinking about that. I did that way too cheap.” I said, “I get it, man. Well, how much do you want? What do you want?” And I’m thinking, “If it’s more than 10 or 15, I’ll do it myself.” He sits there and he goes, “I want a thousand dollars.” I go, ” A thousand dollars, oh my God.” So, I gave him a thousand dollars and he did another one.
But by that point it was like five or six. We’d done five or six with that guy. After five or six plus the credit cards, plus all the other things, their credit scores start dropping. If it was 700, now it’s down to like 600. And at 600, you couldn’t really borrow enough to make it worth it. So I go, “No, I have other people in the wings, waiting.” I’d go out and I’d run up the credit cards and pull all the money out of the banks and close the accounts and then stop paying.
Interviewer
And you said a lot of people knew.
And you said a lot of people knew.
Matthew Cox
Yeah.
Yeah.
Interviewer
So, he was one of the people and then-
So, he was one of the people and then-
Matthew Cox
He was one of the people.
He was one of the people.
Interviewer
Why do you think nobody said anything?
Why do you think nobody said anything?
Matthew Cox
Well, I mean, I think everybody was making money. At that time, I had an appraiser. Eventually I ordered appraisal software and I just start doing the appraisals to myself. Why give this guy 500 bucks?
Well, I mean, I think everybody was making money. At that time, I had an appraiser. Eventually I ordered appraisal software and I just start doing the appraisals to myself. Why give this guy 500 bucks?
Interviewer
So you were doing the appraisal yourself? How’s that possible? Is there a check against that, is there-
So you were doing the appraisal yourself? How’s that possible? Is there a check against that, is there-
Matthew Cox
There is. It’s funny. Nobody ever questions that. You actually have to have a license to get the appraisal software. So, I get an appraiser’s that we’re working with, I get her license and I create an email address as her.
There is. It’s funny. Nobody ever questions that. You actually have to have a license to get the appraisal software. So, I get an appraiser’s that we’re working with, I get her license and I create an email address as her.
Interviewer
Ah, so it was a synthetic appraiser.
Ah, so it was a synthetic appraiser.
Matthew Cox
Right, it was a real person. But I ended up ordering the appraisal software by emailing, it was called Alamo Appraisal Software. So, I end up emailing them as her, and they go, “Well, we can’t sell you the software unless, we need a copy of your license. Boom, here’s your license.” So, I send them the license and then we paid for it with a credit card. You could go get a green dot card, you go put 500 bucks on it, or a thousand. The software was like 1500 bucks or something, back then, it was a long time ago. So 1500 bucks, they mail it to us, and now I’ve got the software. So, now I can do the appraisals myself.
Right, it was a real person. But I ended up ordering the appraisal software by emailing, it was called Alamo Appraisal Software. So, I end up emailing them as her, and they go, “Well, we can’t sell you the software unless, we need a copy of your license. Boom, here’s your license.” So, I send them the license and then we paid for it with a credit card. You could go get a green dot card, you go put 500 bucks on it, or a thousand. The software was like 1500 bucks or something, back then, it was a long time ago. So 1500 bucks, they mail it to us, and now I’ve got the software. So, now I can do the appraisals myself.
Interviewer
What stops you from appraising it, not for 200,000, but even more.
What stops you from appraising it, not for 200,000, but even more.
Matthew Cox
There’s no comparable sales. So, no matter what you send to the bank, they’re going to look at it. They’re going to have, their in-house appraiser is going to do a desktop review. He’s going to go online, he’s going to check to make sure all the appraised, all of the comparable sales are sold for what you said they sold for, are the same square footage, were built, what the pictures look like, how far they are. He is going to double check everything, but he’s some guy who’s on salary and he does whatever, 40 or 50 these a day or something. It doesn’t take him long. So, it’s cheaper that way, where we pay for the appraiser, appraisals, the whole thing.
There’s no comparable sales. So, no matter what you send to the bank, they’re going to look at it. They’re going to have, their in-house appraiser is going to do a desktop review. He’s going to go online, he’s going to check to make sure all the appraised, all of the comparable sales are sold for what you said they sold for, are the same square footage, were built, what the pictures look like, how far they are. He is going to double check everything, but he’s some guy who’s on salary and he does whatever, 40 or 50 these a day or something. It doesn’t take him long. So, it’s cheaper that way, where we pay for the appraiser, appraisals, the whole thing.
Interviewer
Got it. So everybody’s getting paid.
Got it. So everybody’s getting paid.
Matthew Cox
Right.
Right.
Interviewer
So at this point, I’m doing that, right?
So at this point, I’m doing that, right?
Matthew Cox
Yeah.
Yeah.
Interviewer
And I’m getting caught periodically.
And I’m getting caught periodically.
Can you give an example? What do you mean getting caught?
Matthew Cox
I’m living in Tampa Heights, which is right next to Ybor City in Tampa. So, these are all little suburbs of Tampa, and they’re all built back in the 1920s, 1890s, 1910s, 1920s. So, I bought this eight-unit building. I renovated it into a triplex. I mean, I’m driving an Audi. I’m dating a woman that I should not have been dating. I don’t know what she was thinking. So we are going on vacations, everything, life’s good. But every once in a while where things happen, you get a phone call, “Hey, this is what just happened.” One time I got a phone call from same broker, Kelly. Kelly calls me up and said, “Listen, we got a problem.” This was, I want to say this was Alan Duncan. This was one of the first ones that I had done. We used him.
I’m living in Tampa Heights, which is right next to Ybor City in Tampa. So, these are all little suburbs of Tampa, and they’re all built back in the 1920s, 1890s, 1910s, 1920s. So, I bought this eight-unit building. I renovated it into a triplex. I mean, I’m driving an Audi. I’m dating a woman that I should not have been dating. I don’t know what she was thinking. So we are going on vacations, everything, life’s good. But every once in a while where things happen, you get a phone call, “Hey, this is what just happened.” One time I got a phone call from same broker, Kelly. Kelly calls me up and said, “Listen, we got a problem.” This was, I want to say this was Alan Duncan. This was one of the first ones that I had done. We used him.
So, she calls me up and says, “Listen, Alan Duncan never made his first mortgage payment.” I had a friend of mine, or one of my co-defendants, when we closed on that loan, we both got checks for whatever, 40 or 50 grand. Keep in mind, we’re also buying, some of this money’s going into a business account. We’re buying property. So it’s not like I’m pocketing hundreds of thousands of dollars or even 20 or $30,000 on every closing. I’m more like, I’m getting 25, 10, 20, and this guy’s getting 10 and this guy’s getting 15, and then we’re taking 60 and we’re putting it into the business account. We’re buying a bunch of vacant lots, or we’re building some new houses. So we’re trying to take all this and turn it into a development company. But we still have to pay our bills. So, my buddy’s got to go to Amsterdam at least for two weeks. He’s from Belgium. Apparently you have to do that at least once a year. When I gave him the check, I said, “Here’s the 20 grand or 15 grand, but you got to make the payments on this thing for the next six months.” He goes, “No problem.” I said, “Okay.”
So, she calls me up a month and a half later and says, “Hey, Alan Duncan did not make his first payment.” And I went, “Oh my God.” He was actually renting the apartment downstairs for me. So, I run downstairs and I open the door and I go, “Bro,” I’m like, “did you make Duncan’s payment?” And he turns around and he’s like, “Is it due?” And I was like, “Oh my God.” So I run back, I grabbed the phone, I’m like, “He didn’t make it. He didn’t make it.” She’s like, “Okay, well here’s what’s happening. The account executive is calling. They’ve got the file.” It was South Star Bank. “South Star Bank has it. They reviewed it. They’ve already been ordering documents. They’re said there’s a problem there. It’s falling apart. The whole thing’s falling. They know something’s wrong.”
Interviewer
But they don’t know exactly what. It’s just something suspicious, or what?
But they don’t know exactly what. It’s just something suspicious, or what?
Matthew Cox
She didn’t tell me that on the phone.
She didn’t tell me that on the phone.
Interviewer
Okay.
Okay.
Matthew Cox
She’s saying there’s something wrong. They’re freaking out. Because the account executive didn’t really know. She just got a phone call saying, “Hey, have you ever met this broker? Did she meet the guy? Who is the guy? He hasn’t paid. We’re calling the sale. Nobody’s answering.” And really, most of this was my buddy Rudy’s fault. He’s just not doing any of this stuff, any of the things he’s supposed to be doing. So, we go to the office and I call South Star Bank. I get the secretary and I said, “Look, I need to talk to,” whatever the guy, the big guy was. One of them was the president and one was somebody else, vice president. So I said, “I need to talk to, So-and-So, the vice president.” And she says, “I’m sorry, he’s in a business meeting.” I said, “Well, listen, tell him this is Alan Duncan. You need to go tell him its Alan Duncan’s on the phone right now. I’m sure he wants to talk to me.” And she’s like, “All right, hold on.”
She’s saying there’s something wrong. They’re freaking out. Because the account executive didn’t really know. She just got a phone call saying, “Hey, have you ever met this broker? Did she meet the guy? Who is the guy? He hasn’t paid. We’re calling the sale. Nobody’s answering.” And really, most of this was my buddy Rudy’s fault. He’s just not doing any of this stuff, any of the things he’s supposed to be doing. So, we go to the office and I call South Star Bank. I get the secretary and I said, “Look, I need to talk to,” whatever the guy, the big guy was. One of them was the president and one was somebody else, vice president. So I said, “I need to talk to, So-and-So, the vice president.” And she says, “I’m sorry, he’s in a business meeting.” I said, “Well, listen, tell him this is Alan Duncan. You need to go tell him its Alan Duncan’s on the phone right now. I’m sure he wants to talk to me.” And she’s like, “All right, hold on.”
I mean, 20 seconds later, speakerphone. ” Hey, Mr. Duncan, this is so-and-so, and I’m here with our lawyer and the president of the bank and our head of fraud. We were just discussing you.” And I was like, “Okay, I understand that I haven’t made my first payment. I said, it actually came back in the mail. I had the wrong address. That was completely my fault and I apologize.” I said, “But I can get you a cashier’s check. Today I will overnight it, no problem. Hope that’s going to be okay.” They said, “Wait, we’re way past that, way past that.” I said, “Okay, well, what’s the issue?”
They were like, “Look, to be honest, I don’t think I’m talking to Alan Duncan. I don’t think there is an Alan Duncan. I mean, your social security number was issued a couple of years ago. We called the bank.” We had gone with our SunTrust Bank, so it was a real bank, but it wasn’t our normal bank. And they called. ” They don’t have any record of you.” And I was like, “Well, I’ve never been happy with SouthStar Bank. It sounds like a banking error.” And they’re like, “Yeah, I don’t think this isn’t cute.”
Interviewer
He says, “I don’t think I’m talking to Alan Duncan right now.”
He says, “I don’t think I’m talking to Alan Duncan right now.”
Matthew Cox
Right.
Right.
Interviewer
And you were-
And you were-
Matthew Cox
Terrified.
Terrified.
Interviewer
But you have to be playing it Cool, I guess.
But you have to be playing it Cool, I guess.
Matthew Cox
What am I going to say? “No, you’re talking to Matt Cox”? I can’t say that. I’m just, got to keep running with it. Just like, “Okay, well look…” And he’s like, “We called the DMV, they don’t have a list for you in their website. We don’t think you exist. We’re still waiting for a phone call back from so-and-so and so-and-so.” And I’m just like, “Oh my God.” I said, “Have you called the authorities yet?” And they were like, “No, we haven’t, but once we put our file together, we will.” Then the head of the fraud department, they said, “Oh, by the way, Mr…” I forget his name, but the head of the fraud department worked for the FBI for 10 years or something, or 12 years.
What am I going to say? “No, you’re talking to Matt Cox”? I can’t say that. I’m just, got to keep running with it. Just like, “Okay, well look…” And he’s like, “We called the DMV, they don’t have a list for you in their website. We don’t think you exist. We’re still waiting for a phone call back from so-and-so and so-and-so.” And I’m just like, “Oh my God.” I said, “Have you called the authorities yet?” And they were like, “No, we haven’t, but once we put our file together, we will.” Then the head of the fraud department, they said, “Oh, by the way, Mr…” I forget his name, but the head of the fraud department worked for the FBI for 10 years or something, or 12 years.
By the way, the broker is there and my buddy Rudy is there. And I mean, he’s pacing the room, she’s in tears, crying. And I’m like, “Okay, well fellas,” I say, “Where’s this headed? Where’s this going? What are we doing?” So, they’re kind of chuckling and joking about it. I remember thinking, “What’s the deal? It’s weird.” And I said, “Look, let me just pay you back.” They said, “Ah, we’ll get the money. We’re not worried about it.” I said, “You don’t seem worried about the money, about getting any of the money back. Why don’t you just let me, I’ll cut you a check. I can get you the money back. What do I owe?” I owed them 150 or something. I forget exactly. It was nothing. I’m like, owe you 150,000. Let me cut you check for 150,000.
They were like, “No, no, we’ll get the money back when we foreclose on the property.” That’s when I was like, “Oh, they think the property’s worth like a $195,000 or something.” I went, “Oh,” I said, “I understand. Okay, so do you have the appraisal in front of you?” They were like, “Yeah.” I said, “Open it up.” I said, “Take a look at comp number one. That’s owned by a guy named name Lee Black. Comp number two is owned by whatever, David Silver,” whatever the names were. I’m like, “Black, Silver, Red.” I said, “I am all those people.” And I said, “Let me tell you what I’ve done.” And I tell them, just laid out, “Boom, boom, boom, boom.” I said, “So you can call the FBI, but you’re not going to get all your money back. Or you could let me give you your money back and we can let sleeping dogs lie. The whole thing goes away. I apologize. I had every intention of making all the payments. It’s a glitch. You caught me. My bad.”
So, these guys are all just like, “Oh, my God.” Now they put me on hold, they’re looking through the file, they come back. And I remember at some point we go back, forth, back, forth, and finally they come back and they said, “Listen, you still have the money?” I said, “Yeah.” Well, first they come back, they threaten me, “Oh, well, when we give this to the FBI, you’re…” I said, “That’s not true. I said, the money was deposited into a bank account. It has since been moved. The bank account has been closed. It’s been removed in cash. That money has gone. You will never see that money. I will be cutting you, if I pay you back at all, it’ll be from another account.” So, the FBI agent ends up saying, “He’s right. Even if we caught him red-handed, the likelihood that any of these funds will ever be recouped, is zero.” There’s almost no money is ever recouped.
They put me on hold again and they come back and they go, “How quickly can you get us a cashier’s check?” That day I go get them a cashier’s check, overnight the cashier’s check. They never called the FBI. They never did anything. Now, at that point, we actually ditched that Alan Duncan. I remember at that point we went to the mall, ran up all the credit cards and just threw everything away and walked away, because it was shot. That guy was shot. I think we borrowed, whatever, $800,000 or $900,000 in his name.
Interviewer
So with the banks, it’s really, really all about the money.
So with the banks, it’s really, really all about the money.
Matthew Cox
Listen, when I go on the run, I got one where I was caught so red- handed, it’s insane how bad it was. Listen, that’s nothing. I got caught by Washington Mutual one time. I was caught by Washington Mutual where we had done six owner-occupied duplexes. So, if you say you’re going to live in a house, you can get about 95% financing. But if it’s an investment property, you got to put down 20%, you get about 80% financing. So, a buddy of mine who was a sheriff’s deputy, we had his wife buy, I’m going to say six owner-occupied duplexes, saying she lived in every single one of them.
Listen, when I go on the run, I got one where I was caught so red- handed, it’s insane how bad it was. Listen, that’s nothing. I got caught by Washington Mutual one time. I was caught by Washington Mutual where we had done six owner-occupied duplexes. So, if you say you’re going to live in a house, you can get about 95% financing. But if it’s an investment property, you got to put down 20%, you get about 80% financing. So, a buddy of mine who was a sheriff’s deputy, we had his wife buy, I’m going to say six owner-occupied duplexes, saying she lived in every single one of them.
Well, you can’t owner-occupy six dwellings. That’s fraud. Now granted, her W-2s and pay stubs were correct, but she didn’t put the down payments down. Even the down payments we didn’t put down, we actually got cash back. But months later, the lawyer from Washington Mutual ends up calling the mortgage broker and saying that they ended up with two of the owner-occupied duplexes, because Washington Mutual had a credit line extended to one of the lenders who’d lent the money. So, it actually was Washington Mutual. So, it was a couple months later when they went to sell it, they package them together and sell them, they realized we have the same customer with two duplexes, side by side, both owner-occupied. This is fraud. She comes in, she tells me, “Oh my gosh, this lawyer’s on the phone. This is what happened.” I’m like, “Oh wow, this is horrible.”
I end up getting on the phone with him. We have a conversation and he’s like, “Look, this is a big deal. We could call the FBI.” I’m like, “Look, who knows who was involved in this? Maybe somebody on your side was involved, maybe somebody on my side. I don’t know what my mortgage broker did. I’ll deal with her on my own. Why don’t you just let us refinance the properties?” Not only did we talk him into allowing us to refinance the properties, he gave us a reduced balance of what we owed him. Because we couldn’t borrow enough to pay him off. So, they took like a $20,000 hit just to refinance those properties. Never called the FBI, never did anything. Absolutely fraud.
I had a broker one time, we got caught with over a million dollars in loans that he had done that were fraudulent. Pinnacle Bancorp, which was out of Chicago, the owner called me, and he was like, “Look, your mortgage broker did this.” There was a bunch of canceled checks. They were fake canceled checks. So, they looked like they had run through the bank for somebody’s rent, but they hadn’t. Does that make sense? You pay your rent, they deposit it, it goes to the bank and they’ve got all the numbers and everything. Well, I had a bunch that were blank, that all you had to do was fill out your borrower’s information and then you cut and pasted his name and his address at the upper left-hand corner. You make a copy of it, it looks like canceled checks. We had 24 of them. Well, one of my brokers was using them for all of his files. Even if the person really had a rental history, he didn’t want to order it. He just did this, it was easier.
Interviewer
It’s faster, yeah. Wow.
It’s faster, yeah. Wow.
Matthew Cox
So they catch a million dollars worth of loans. They called me up, and then they caught another million dollars, but they had already sold them to Household Bank. So, while I’m on the phone with the owner, his name’s Gary, and we’re talking, he’s like, “Look, this is what we found. This is this. This is what happened.” And I remember I said, “Gary, at the end of this conversation, if you think I’m cutting you a check for a million dollars,” I said, “I just don’t have it. I don’t have it.” This was when I owned the mortgage company. He says, “No, I’m asking you for your word that if any of these come back on us, they’re in Florida, they’re in your area. You’ll help us get rid of the properties. We’ll foreclose. We’re going to have to resell them. I don’t want to be flying down there. Just help us get rid of them.” I said, “Absolutely, of course, no problem.”
So they catch a million dollars worth of loans. They called me up, and then they caught another million dollars, but they had already sold them to Household Bank. So, while I’m on the phone with the owner, his name’s Gary, and we’re talking, he’s like, “Look, this is what we found. This is this. This is what happened.” And I remember I said, “Gary, at the end of this conversation, if you think I’m cutting you a check for a million dollars,” I said, “I just don’t have it. I don’t have it.” This was when I owned the mortgage company. He says, “No, I’m asking you for your word that if any of these come back on us, they’re in Florida, they’re in your area. You’ll help us get rid of the properties. We’ll foreclose. We’re going to have to resell them. I don’t want to be flying down there. Just help us get rid of them.” I said, “Absolutely, of course, no problem.”
I said, “Well, what are you going to do with them?” He goes, “Well, they’re going to be a part of a package, like a $3 million package we’re selling to Household Bank.” The other ones they had caught had already been sold. The ethical thing to do is to contact Household Bank, say, “We will buy those back. We are going to take care of…” It’s not what happened. In fact, Gary flew down a couple weeks later, took me and several of the brokers, not that broker, but several of the brokers out to dinner, had a few drinks, and he openly admitted. He’s like, “Look, I don’t care if all the loans have fraud in them, as long as they don’t come back on me. That’s what I’m concerned about.” Because there was a clawback clause for one year. He’s like, “So, if they can perform for one year, I don’t care.” That was it.
Interviewer
How many people in the industry do you think are operating like this? And by this, I mean in the aforementioned gray area.
How many people in the industry do you think are operating like this? And by this, I mean in the aforementioned gray area.
Matthew Cox
I would say there’s probably, after the 2008 financial crisis, I would say it cleaned up considerably. But I would say at this point it’s just as bad as it ever was. Keep in mind, a lot of the loans that caused the problems, they call liar loans, no qualification, no qual loans, no income. Well, those loans, they exist again. There are subprime companies that are doing that again. I don’t think they call them subprime anymore. So, they got some other name.
I would say there’s probably, after the 2008 financial crisis, I would say it cleaned up considerably. But I would say at this point it’s just as bad as it ever was. Keep in mind, a lot of the loans that caused the problems, they call liar loans, no qualification, no qual loans, no income. Well, those loans, they exist again. There are subprime companies that are doing that again. I don’t think they call them subprime anymore. So, they got some other name.
Interviewer
Yeah, rebranded.
Yeah, rebranded.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, they’ve rebranded a little bit, but it’s happening all over again.
Yeah, they’ve rebranded a little bit, but it’s happening all over again.
Interviewer
It just seems the whole real estate slash banking system is very prone to this kind of corruption.
It just seems the whole real estate slash banking system is very prone to this kind of corruption.
Matthew Cox
But how can you fix it? A lot of the things they fixed, a lot of the manipulation they fixed. But if you tighten it too much, then the average person can’t get a loan. And the thing is, some of these loans, sometimes changing a W-2, should that person have gotten into that house? No, he shouldn’t have, he didn’t qualify. But he makes all of his payments. So it’s like, is it a fraudulent loan? Yeah, but it performs.
But how can you fix it? A lot of the things they fixed, a lot of the manipulation they fixed. But if you tighten it too much, then the average person can’t get a loan. And the thing is, some of these loans, sometimes changing a W-2, should that person have gotten into that house? No, he shouldn’t have, he didn’t qualify. But he makes all of his payments. So it’s like, is it a fraudulent loan? Yeah, but it performs.
So, I would say that, I forget what the FBI statistic was. It was like 20% or 30%. Prior to the financial crisis it was like 20 or 30% of bank loans, they were saying, that contained some kind of fraud, even if it was just a lie. If you want to cut 30% out of… That’s a ton. That’s a ton.
Getting caught
Interviewer
So, you’re on probation and you’re almost getting caught, you’re almost getting caught, and you’re doing these really large-scale scams. How does it get to the point where you’re on the run?
So, you’re on probation and you’re almost getting caught, you’re almost getting caught, and you’re doing these really large-scale scams. How does it get to the point where you’re on the run?
Matthew Cox
I’m doing multiple scams. So, it’s not just that I’m doing the scams with the Reservoir Dog scams. I’m not just doing those guys. I’m also creating other identities because I’ve got other people that are involved. They want to do a scam. So, this chick I was dating, she wanted to run a scam. So, I set up a scam. It’s semi-complicated, but the bottom line is she ends up stealing a real person… We steal a real person’s identity. I have a real person’s identity. We get a driver’s license in her name, open up some bank accounts, go rent a piece of property in her name, and I transfer the deed or the deed from the property out of the real owner’s name, I transfer it into her stolen identity. We then refinance the house like three or four times. So, she starts going to these different closings. Her name is Allison, and she’s pretending to be a Puerto Rican woman named Rosie de Perez. Allison has brown hair and blue eyes. Rosie De Perez clearly doesn’t. So Allison, when we make the ID, she dyes her hair black, curls it a little bit, and gets the pictures taken of herself before she goes to the first closing to get a check for like a hundred thousand dollars. We’ve got three of these scheduled. She changes her hair color, she dyes it back like a dirty blonde, and she goes to the first closing and she gets a check, a check for 100,000, let’s say. I don’t know what it was like 95 or 105, whatever, roughly $100,000. She gets a check at the closing, they give it to her. We then go to the next closing. Well, at the next closing, the title person has her sign all the documents, but she’s looking at her like something’s not right. Looks at her ID, makes a copy of the ID, looks at it and says, “This doesn’t look like you.” And she’s like, “You don’t look Hispanic.” And she’s like, “I’m half Hispanic.” But keep in mind the photograph was her. So she’s saying, “This doesn’t look like you,” but it’s her. Granted she had the curly hair a little bit, but that’s it. So Allison is like, “It’s me.” And she’s like, “Look, I’m not going to give you the check. Let’s just sign the documents. You can get the check. I’ll let you know.”
I’m doing multiple scams. So, it’s not just that I’m doing the scams with the Reservoir Dog scams. I’m not just doing those guys. I’m also creating other identities because I’ve got other people that are involved. They want to do a scam. So, this chick I was dating, she wanted to run a scam. So, I set up a scam. It’s semi-complicated, but the bottom line is she ends up stealing a real person… We steal a real person’s identity. I have a real person’s identity. We get a driver’s license in her name, open up some bank accounts, go rent a piece of property in her name, and I transfer the deed or the deed from the property out of the real owner’s name, I transfer it into her stolen identity. We then refinance the house like three or four times. So, she starts going to these different closings. Her name is Allison, and she’s pretending to be a Puerto Rican woman named Rosie de Perez. Allison has brown hair and blue eyes. Rosie De Perez clearly doesn’t. So Allison, when we make the ID, she dyes her hair black, curls it a little bit, and gets the pictures taken of herself before she goes to the first closing to get a check for like a hundred thousand dollars. We’ve got three of these scheduled. She changes her hair color, she dyes it back like a dirty blonde, and she goes to the first closing and she gets a check, a check for 100,000, let’s say. I don’t know what it was like 95 or 105, whatever, roughly $100,000. She gets a check at the closing, they give it to her. We then go to the next closing. Well, at the next closing, the title person has her sign all the documents, but she’s looking at her like something’s not right. Looks at her ID, makes a copy of the ID, looks at it and says, “This doesn’t look like you.” And she’s like, “You don’t look Hispanic.” And she’s like, “I’m half Hispanic.” But keep in mind the photograph was her. So she’s saying, “This doesn’t look like you,” but it’s her. Granted she had the curly hair a little bit, but that’s it. So Allison is like, “It’s me.” And she’s like, “Look, I’m not going to give you the check. Let’s just sign the documents. You can get the check. I’ll let you know.”
She goes, gets in my car. She says, “Yeah, listen, there’s a problem.” So we’re driving down the road, she explains it to me. I realized, “Okay, that’s done. It’s over. We’re not going back.” She’s like, “What about the other closing?” “No, no. No more closings, we’re done.” And it was probably more of a yell, screaming and yelling like, “What the hell did you do? I told you not to change your hair. Why would you change your hair?” When she came in the day before, and I was like, “What did you do? What did you do?” And she’s like, “I changed my hair. What’s the big deal? It’s still me.” Sure enough.
It’s not that I knew that that was going to happen, but why tempt fate?
Interviewer
How’d you meet Allison?
How’d you meet Allison?
Matthew Cox
She was a mortgage broker.
She was a mortgage broker.
Interviewer
Okay.
Okay.
Matthew Cox
Sorry, she worked for another mortgage company. She couldn’t get a loan closed. The owner of that mortgage company called me and said, “Look, we got a loan, we need it closed.” And I said, “Great.” And when guys would call me, I’d say, “Great, I’ll come pick it up. I’ll give you a $300 or a $500 referral fee.” “No, no, it’s a couple hundred thousand dollars. We want to close it.” “Well, then close it.” “I can’t close it. We need a W-2 or we need this. We need that. We can’t figure out how to do it.” So, I go over there and typically I convince them, just give it to me or it’s not going to close. But you’d have to see this chick, she was gorgeous. She was gorgeous, very flirtatious. Made me feel like I was thin and handsome. So, she gets whatever she wants.
Sorry, she worked for another mortgage company. She couldn’t get a loan closed. The owner of that mortgage company called me and said, “Look, we got a loan, we need it closed.” And I said, “Great.” And when guys would call me, I’d say, “Great, I’ll come pick it up. I’ll give you a $300 or a $500 referral fee.” “No, no, it’s a couple hundred thousand dollars. We want to close it.” “Well, then close it.” “I can’t close it. We need a W-2 or we need this. We need that. We can’t figure out how to do it.” So, I go over there and typically I convince them, just give it to me or it’s not going to close. But you’d have to see this chick, she was gorgeous. She was gorgeous, very flirtatious. Made me feel like I was thin and handsome. So, she gets whatever she wants.
So, I’m like, “Okay, look, here’s what you do.” And I explained to her, “Do this, do this, this. Send it here. It’ll close.” And we closed it. Well, then she starts calling me, “Hey, how’s it going?” We go to lunch. Next thing you know, we start sleeping together. She realizes what’s happening. She says, “I want in on this.” So, now we do the closings. We’re on our way. I say, “Look, that check’s dead.” She goes, “What about the other one?” I go, “No, no, it’s all dead. We’re walking away.” Now, it was easy for me to say, because for me, I had money. She’s going through a divorce, she’s broke. None of this did I take into consideration at the time, by the way, to me it’s like, “Nah, that’s dead. We’re done. We’ll start over again.” To her, in her mind, that was a million-dollar scam. She was about to end up getting whatever it was, half or one-third of half a million dollars in the next week. Now she’s got nothing.
So, she says, “Look, let’s at least cash this one.” I had a buddy named Travis Hayes, we actually, we’ve been friends since high school. We were best friends, really close friends in high school. We were still close. Travis was running a scam. Hers was in Clearwater, his was in Orlando. So, I’m all over the state at this point. So, he’s running an Orlando scam that’s already yielded half a million, maybe more. We’re still refinancing properties, right? So he’s about to close on another half a million dollars worth of properties.
He’s got a bank account that’s open. She says, “Let’s give it to Travis, have him deposit it in his account.” He’s already pulled out like 300,000 out of the account. And she’s like, “Shouldn’t be a problem.” I was like, “No, no, no.” And she goes, “Let me call him.” I think I called him and I explained the situation. He said, “Do you think it’s okay?” And I said, “No, I don’t think it’s okay. I don’t think it’s okay at all.” And he’s like, “Nah, it’s not a big deal. Just give me the check.” So, I give him the check. He goes, he deposits the check. They say they’re going to hold it until it clears. That was kind of a thing back then. It takes, I don’t know, I don’t know how long it took, five days, six days, whatever it was. He was supposed to go back and it would’ve cleared and he would’ve been able to start pulling money out. So, I call him one day, because Allison’s bugging me. So I call him and I go, “Hey, where are you at?” He goes, “I’m actually on my way to Orlando.” And I said, “Oh, okay, so you let Allison know I’m not getting any money.”
He said, “The bank manager called and said that because the check was over a hundred thousand dollars, they have to witness me endorsing the back of the check. Or they had to see my something.” For me to come in, I’m like, “Whoa.” I said, “Something’s wrong. Something’s wrong. Don’t go to the bank.” “What do you think is wrong?” I go, “I think the cops are waiting for you. That’s what I think is wrong.” And he goes, “No, the cops aren’t.” He goes, “Man, I’m in the parking lot right now. I just pulled into the parking lot. There’s no cops.” I’m like, “They’re not going to be in squad cars.” And he’s like, “No.” He said, “It’s fine. You’re overreacting, bro.” And I’ll never forget what he said. He said, “You’re shaking like a little girl, bro. Calm down. I got this. I’m cool with the manager.” The manager, because you’ve chopped it up with the manager, he’s going to let your fraudulent check go through.
So, he walks in, the cops are in there, they locked the door. He told me later, they closed the door, locked it. The cops are in there. They grab him, and they bring him downtown. He didn’t say anything. He won’t say anything. That’s not true, by the way. So, here’s what he told me, he wouldn’t say anything, “I told them, ‘I’m not talking to you, coppers.'”
Interviewer
Oh, he told you, but he actually did tell him.
Oh, he told you, but he actually did tell him.
Matthew Cox
He actually did talk to him. What ends up happening, is we can’t get in touch with him. So, we’re calling and calling, calling. Then, finally I decide, “You know what? I’m not going to call his cell phone anymore. I’m going to call the synthetic identity’s number.” So I go and I call the synthetic identity’s number. I call and somebody answers, and I go, “Hey, is so-and-so there?” And it’s a gruff, authoritarian voice. This is law enforcement. He goes, “No, this is officer so-and-so. Who’s this?” I was like, “Oh, this is Lee Black.” He goes, “How do you know so-and-so?” I was like, “Oh…” Click, and I just hung up, and I called from a pay phone.
He actually did talk to him. What ends up happening, is we can’t get in touch with him. So, we’re calling and calling, calling. Then, finally I decide, “You know what? I’m not going to call his cell phone anymore. I’m going to call the synthetic identity’s number.” So I go and I call the synthetic identity’s number. I call and somebody answers, and I go, “Hey, is so-and-so there?” And it’s a gruff, authoritarian voice. This is law enforcement. He goes, “No, this is officer so-and-so. Who’s this?” I was like, “Oh, this is Lee Black.” He goes, “How do you know so-and-so?” I was like, “Oh…” Click, and I just hung up, and I called from a pay phone.
So, I turned around and I said, “He got arrested.” Then later on that night, he showed up on the county website, the arrest website, showing he had been arrested. The next day he calls me and he asked me to get him out of jail. Like, “Hey, you got to go.” So, I have to give his brother-in-law money. We get him out of jail. He actually got out-
Interviewer
[inaudible 02:08:45]?
[inaudible 02:08:45]?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, he got out for nothing. And here’s where I should have known that he was cooperating. It went from like $300,000 bond down to like $10,000. So it’s a thousand bucks. So right then, I didn’t know it at the time, but obviously that means we’re going to let him out of jail. He’s cooperating. So, they let him out of jail. I go and I get him a lawyer, a state… This was state, by the way. It wasn’t federal. So I get him a lawyer for like $15,000.
Yeah, he got out for nothing. And here’s where I should have known that he was cooperating. It went from like $300,000 bond down to like $10,000. So it’s a thousand bucks. So right then, I didn’t know it at the time, but obviously that means we’re going to let him out of jail. He’s cooperating. So, they let him out of jail. I go and I get him a lawyer, a state… This was state, by the way. It wasn’t federal. So I get him a lawyer for like $15,000.
He comes, of course, he tells me, “Look, they asked me a bunch of questions. I told him that…” He made up some story about he’s working with another guy, but he doesn’t know the guy’s name. He made up a name. He has this whole kind of thing where he tells them about me, but not me. None of the numbers led anywhere. So they all lead to cell phones that are only being used for those scams. So it’s a dead alley or a blind alley. I’m like, “Okay, okay.” And I’m paying him. He’s coming in, “Man, my truck’s no good. I need another truck.” I buy him another truck. “Hey man, the electric is going to get turned off and I don’t have… I need a thousand dollars.” “Of course, here’s a thousand dollars. I’m embarrassed you had to ask. Here’s a thousand.” A week later, he needs 2000 for this, a thousand for this, 2000 for this. He wants to start a tree-trimming company. He needs to buy a tree-trimmer. “How much are those? 5,000? Of course, $5,0000.” So I give him another 25,000, starts like a tree-trimming business, which he runs to this day.
What I don’t know, is that the whole time he’s actually working with a task force that’s been put together.
Interviewer
Federal, or…
Federal, or…
Matthew Cox
This is state at this point. It’s a state task force because there’s multiple counties involved at this point. It wasn’t hard for him to explain. This comes back to Reservoir Dogs. All he had to say to the officers was, “Listen, you got to let me go. I can’t do any prison time. I’m going to tell you about a much, much bigger scam.” And they go, “Okay, well how can you prove that scam?” “Pull up Hillsborough County’s Tax Appraiser website. Okay, look up the name James Red. Look, all of these were bought six months ago. Six months later, they’re all in foreclosure. Pull up Lee Black. All of these were bought. Look, six months later, all of them are foreclosure. Hey, pull up James Red. Pull up Brandon Green, pull up…” So, all of these are going in foreclosure. What I thought was so cute, not cute. It was just stupid.
This is state at this point. It’s a state task force because there’s multiple counties involved at this point. It wasn’t hard for him to explain. This comes back to Reservoir Dogs. All he had to say to the officers was, “Listen, you got to let me go. I can’t do any prison time. I’m going to tell you about a much, much bigger scam.” And they go, “Okay, well how can you prove that scam?” “Pull up Hillsborough County’s Tax Appraiser website. Okay, look up the name James Red. Look, all of these were bought six months ago. Six months later, they’re all in foreclosure. Pull up Lee Black. All of these were bought. Look, six months later, all of them are foreclosure. Hey, pull up James Red. Pull up Brandon Green, pull up…” So, all of these are going in foreclosure. What I thought was so cute, not cute. It was just stupid.
So very quickly they put together a task force. He’s working with them on the task force, and we’re still buying houses, flipping houses, doing everything. Because I believe him. He’s saying, “Look, if I have to go to jail for a year or so,” and he is also paying… He hasn’t paid them back yet, but we’re saying he can pay them back. He’s like, “Look, if we get to the point, when we get to that point, we’ll pay them back.” But we haven’t paid him back yet, because we have no way to show where that money came from. We can always go to one of his relatives and give his dad 40 grand, give his mom 20 grand, that kind of stuff, and start putting money that way. And all that money was taken out in cash, too. So we could always show up with a chunk in cash.
Matthew Cox
All that money was taken out in cash too. So, we could always show up with a chunk in cash. Regardless, it’s still in the process. And, I think that we’re still in the process, and it could be six months or a year away because it’s a slow thing. I’ve already been through the process my first time when I got in trouble, and it was a year from the time that I was spoken to until I pled guilty and was sentenced. I’m not concerned about it.
All that money was taken out in cash too. So, we could always show up with a chunk in cash. Regardless, it’s still in the process. And, I think that we’re still in the process, and it could be six months or a year away because it’s a slow thing. I’ve already been through the process my first time when I got in trouble, and it was a year from the time that I was spoken to until I pled guilty and was sentenced. I’m not concerned about it.
Going on the run from FBI
Well, that’s happening. We’re still flipping properties. And, one day… I have a buddy named Steve Sutton. Remember the sheriff’s deputy? Keep in mind, it’s funny because I’ve done bad loans for police officers, sheriffs, lawyers, doctors, across… everybody. These aren’t all-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, everybody.
Yeah, everybody.
Matthew Cox
… guys that… These aren’t all construction workers or guys that work… or mechanics or something. These are legitimate people that have credit problems or whatever the case may be. One day, I’m sitting at work and I’d been getting phone calls for the prior week from people at title companies saying, “Hey, Matt. Wanted to let you know we just had some subpoenas served on several of your files.” I’m concerned. That had me concerned. Then a guy named Jeff Testerman starts making phone calls. Jeff Testerman is a reporter for the St. Petersburg Times. He’s calling people saying, “Hey, I noticed that you sold a piece of property to Lee Black. Have you ever met Mr. Black?” And, they’re just hanging up on him or saying, “No, I don’t know what you’re talking about. I’m not sure what that guy’s name was. Let me call you back.” And, I’m getting phone calls from people. So, I know something’s up with the newspaper. Now I know something’s being looked at, but nobody’s really talking.
… guys that… These aren’t all construction workers or guys that work… or mechanics or something. These are legitimate people that have credit problems or whatever the case may be. One day, I’m sitting at work and I’d been getting phone calls for the prior week from people at title companies saying, “Hey, Matt. Wanted to let you know we just had some subpoenas served on several of your files.” I’m concerned. That had me concerned. Then a guy named Jeff Testerman starts making phone calls. Jeff Testerman is a reporter for the St. Petersburg Times. He’s calling people saying, “Hey, I noticed that you sold a piece of property to Lee Black. Have you ever met Mr. Black?” And, they’re just hanging up on him or saying, “No, I don’t know what you’re talking about. I’m not sure what that guy’s name was. Let me call you back.” And, I’m getting phone calls from people. So, I know something’s up with the newspaper. Now I know something’s being looked at, but nobody’s really talking.
I know that there are subpoenas being served and I’m nervous. I’m very concerned. One day, I’m in my office and the sheriff’s deputy walks in, Steve Sutton, in his uniform too, which everybody always stiffened when he would walk in. He walks in. I go, “Steve.” I said, “What’s going on?” He said… and usually he’s jolly and laughs and stuff. He says, “I got to talk to you outside.” I was like, “Okay.” I walk outside, “What’s up?” He says, “I used to date this girl in the Tampa Police Department,” or something. I was like, “Okay.” He said, “She showed up at my house this morning at six o’clock in the morning.” I went, “Okay.” He said, “She said that she’s been working on a task force.”
And, he said, “Apparently, one of your buddies got arrested in Orlando. They’re investigating some other thing in Clearwater. They’re investigating a ton of properties here in Ybor, Tampa Heights. And, there’s like a hundred properties involved. And, my name came up because you’ve sold some properties to me,” which I had. He’s like, “So, she came to me and said, ‘Look, your buddy, Cox…'” I was like, “Okay.” He goes… He said, “Well, the task force is on you. And, she said to stop talking to you because they’re going to come arrest you in a couple of days. They just handed over the task force findings to the FBI and the FBI is going to come arrest you in a couple of days. She said not to talk to you because you’re going to cooperate because all white collar guys cooperate. So, she thinks you’re going to cooperate and not to talk to you because she’s afraid you’re going to get me hemmed up. And, she said just to walk away.”
He was like, “So, I thought you should know.” I was like, “Okay.” He said, “What are you going to do?” I said, “Oh… you know…” Well, first, he said, “What should I do?” I go, “Tell them. Tell them that I arranged all the loans for you.” You came in. You signed the paperwork. I filled out all the documents. You signed the paperwork. I arranged everything.” I’m like, “You’re not a mortgage broker. You don’t know if this is legit. You have perfect credit. You signed the paperwork. You walked away with a check for 30,000. You don’t know.” He was like… Because, he did it because he had a job. He was a sheriff’s deputy.
I went in. I applied for a loan at a bank. They said, “You can buy the house and we’ll give you $30,000.” So, of course I’m going to do that. That’s not going to happen. But, he doesn’t know. I said, “Just tell them yeah. Tell them you’ll cooperate, absolutely.” He goes, “What are you going to do?” I said, “Me?” I said, “I’m leaving, bro. I’m leaving.” I said, “I can’t stay here. I can’t go to prison. I was just sentenced. I’m on federal probation right now. The judge isn’t going to be cool with me getting popped again. I can’t do it. Can’t do it.” I said, “I’m leaving. Can’t go to prison. I’m adorable, bro. I saw Shawshank Redemption. I know what’s going to happen. I can’t.”
Lex Fridman
You’re too good looking.
You’re too good looking.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, I can’t do that. That’s not going to happen. I am not going to defend myself against a guy who’s six foot three and tatted up. No. I’m no benefit to a gang. I’m a nonviolent, soft, white collar criminal. I was like, “Yeah, I’m leaving, bro. I’m leaving.” Well, I actually went home… Well, actually, I was able to… I started cutting checks to people. I cut checks to Allison, to Johnny, to everybody I could think of. Here’s 5,000. Here’s 7,000. Here’s 8,000. Here’s six. Here’s nine. And, had them going into all these different bank accounts, pulling out cash. But, this is like a Thursday at four o’clock. The next day they show up with cash, write some more checks. They go again. I get about 80 grand in cash. That’s all I can get.
Yeah, I can’t do that. That’s not going to happen. I am not going to defend myself against a guy who’s six foot three and tatted up. No. I’m no benefit to a gang. I’m a nonviolent, soft, white collar criminal. I was like, “Yeah, I’m leaving, bro. I’m leaving.” Well, I actually went home… Well, actually, I was able to… I started cutting checks to people. I cut checks to Allison, to Johnny, to everybody I could think of. Here’s 5,000. Here’s 7,000. Here’s 8,000. Here’s six. Here’s nine. And, had them going into all these different bank accounts, pulling out cash. But, this is like a Thursday at four o’clock. The next day they show up with cash, write some more checks. They go again. I get about 80 grand in cash. That’s all I can get.
I go home that night. I start packing my bags. And, I was dating this chick named Rebecca Houck. We’d been dating about a month. And, she shows up at my house. I hadn’t returned her phone calls all day and apparently we’re supposed to go out and I’d forgotten about it. I had bigger issues. So, I’m packing a couple of duffle bags and she walks in and she’s like, “What’s going on?” I’m like, “I’m leaving.” Where are you going? I thought we were supposed to go out at such and go do something tonight. I’m like, “I’m leaving. It’s over.” She says, “What happened?” I tell her what happened. This is what happened. She’s like, “Oh my God.” She had no idea.
Lex Fridman
She had no idea about anything you were doing?
She had no idea about anything you were doing?
Matthew Cox
No, I barely knew her. I mean, she’s coming over two, three times a week for a month. This isn’t love. This is a booty call. That’s all it is. We’re hanging out. We’re having sex and that’s it. I don’t even know you. She suddenly just begs to come with me. You got to bring me with you. You have to this, you have to that. I’m like, “What are you talking about? You’ve got a son. You have your mom lives here.” She’s just in tears and crying. She suddenly said, and this is what’s so funny about it, is that she had just moved from Vegas to St. Petersburg to work at the dog track, to work for a company that owned the dog track. A casino interest or a gambling company. She said, “You don’t even know why I’m here.” I was like, “Okay, why are you here?” She said, “I’m here because I was working for a law firm that worked for the casino company that I worked for.” She said, “I got caught embezzling…” Nothing. It was like 10 or $15,000 from my boss. She had a gambling habit. And, she said, “He didn’t call the police because we were sleeping together and he was afraid his wife would find out.” She said, “So, instead, he banished me here to St. Pete. My son just came to live with me. He’s been caught sneaking out.” Because, the father had raised him. He’d only been living with her since she got to Florida.
No, I barely knew her. I mean, she’s coming over two, three times a week for a month. This isn’t love. This is a booty call. That’s all it is. We’re hanging out. We’re having sex and that’s it. I don’t even know you. She suddenly just begs to come with me. You got to bring me with you. You have to this, you have to that. I’m like, “What are you talking about? You’ve got a son. You have your mom lives here.” She’s just in tears and crying. She suddenly said, and this is what’s so funny about it, is that she had just moved from Vegas to St. Petersburg to work at the dog track, to work for a company that owned the dog track. A casino interest or a gambling company. She said, “You don’t even know why I’m here.” I was like, “Okay, why are you here?” She said, “I’m here because I was working for a law firm that worked for the casino company that I worked for.” She said, “I got caught embezzling…” Nothing. It was like 10 or $15,000 from my boss. She had a gambling habit. And, she said, “He didn’t call the police because we were sleeping together and he was afraid his wife would find out.” She said, “So, instead, he banished me here to St. Pete. My son just came to live with me. He’s been caught sneaking out.” Because, the father had raised him. He’d only been living with her since she got to Florida.
She’s like, “I was going to send him back. He’s failing school. He’s smoking pot. He’s been caught sneaking out after curfew.” I’m like, “Oh, okay. I don’t know any of this.” She’s like, “He was going back in December?” No, he was going back after the school year, which would’ve been like May. Okay. I’m like… Where before, five minutes earlier, I thought she was this sweet secretary, sweet innocent secretary, she’s like, “I’ve been married three times. I am a gambler. I’ve claimed bankruptcy. I’m sleeping with my boss.” She went from this thieving, adulterous, and I thought these are all really beneficial to my future plans. And, I shouldn’t have… At that moment, I was so just flipped out and concerned. And, up and leaving your life and everything you know behind, that’s terrifying. Now, you’re alone in a strange place, in a place-
Lex Fridman
Is that the first time you’ve done something like that, leave to go on the road?
Is that the first time you’ve done something like that, leave to go on the road?
Matthew Cox
Yes. I’d never just up and moved. And, keep in mind, now I can’t call home. I’m leaving… There are things that I feel like get you caught. I’ve watched tons of these TV shows and there are certain things that get you caught. One of them is keeping in contact with anybody in your old life. I’m thinking that’s not going to happen. I’m not contacting anybody. I’m leaving and that’s it. That didn’t really happen. I kept in touch. I called my mom every once in a while. But, I was like, “Okay, that’s cool.”
Yes. I’d never just up and moved. And, keep in mind, now I can’t call home. I’m leaving… There are things that I feel like get you caught. I’ve watched tons of these TV shows and there are certain things that get you caught. One of them is keeping in contact with anybody in your old life. I’m thinking that’s not going to happen. I’m not contacting anybody. I’m leaving and that’s it. That didn’t really happen. I kept in touch. I called my mom every once in a while. But, I was like, “Okay, that’s cool.”
Lex Fridman
Did the loneliness of that hit you early on or no? Like as you were packing…
Did the loneliness of that hit you early on or no? Like as you were packing…
Matthew Cox
I never did. Well…
I never did. Well…
Lex Fridman
You’re leaving your life… I mean, it feels like a fundamental transition.
You’re leaving your life… I mean, it feels like a fundamental transition.
Matthew Cox
Oh, listen. You think? Listen, not just that I’m leaving my son. I have a son. I was leaving everything. I was just terrified of going to prison. It was just so stupid. It was just arrogance. I should have stayed. I made things so much worse. But, I also thought I’m smart, I can figure this out. I can change my identity. Blend in. I’ll be fine.
Oh, listen. You think? Listen, not just that I’m leaving my son. I have a son. I was leaving everything. I was just terrified of going to prison. It was just so stupid. It was just arrogance. I should have stayed. I made things so much worse. But, I also thought I’m smart, I can figure this out. I can change my identity. Blend in. I’ll be fine.
Lex Fridman
Aren’t you already… People know what your face looks like.
Aren’t you already… People know what your face looks like.
Matthew Cox
They do. They do. But, one of the first things I did was I got plastic surgery.
They do. They do. But, one of the first things I did was I got plastic surgery.
Lex Fridman
What kind of plastic surgery?
What kind of plastic surgery?
Matthew Cox
I got a nose job. I got what they call a mini facelift. They go in through your back of your ears and they suck out all the fat in your neck.
I got a nose job. I got what they call a mini facelift. They go in through your back of your ears and they suck out all the fat in your neck.
Lex Fridman
Does that change appearance much?
Does that change appearance much?
Matthew Cox
A little bit. I was balding. I got two hair transplants, two hair grafts. The hair in my head, this isn’t my hair. It’s my hair, but it’s from back here. They cut it here-
A little bit. I was balding. I got two hair transplants, two hair grafts. The hair in my head, this isn’t my hair. It’s my hair, but it’s from back here. They cut it here-
Lex Fridman
It looks great.
It looks great.
Matthew Cox
Appreciate it. They reimplanted it there. Got liposuction, just some other stuff. And, got my teeth done, that sort of thing. That was my plan. I’ll go, I’ll take off. I got 80 grand. I’ll steal some more money. But, I let her come with me. We ran up all my credit cards over the next few days, packed up the car, traded in my Audi and got an Audi… I don’t know, it was it like an A6 or a four-door, like the big four-door, whatever it was. Got that and drove straight to Atlanta. I wrote a letter to my parents before I left, just explaining this is what’s happening. I’m leaving. I’m done. I’m not going to prison. Love you. Sorry.
Appreciate it. They reimplanted it there. Got liposuction, just some other stuff. And, got my teeth done, that sort of thing. That was my plan. I’ll go, I’ll take off. I got 80 grand. I’ll steal some more money. But, I let her come with me. We ran up all my credit cards over the next few days, packed up the car, traded in my Audi and got an Audi… I don’t know, it was it like an A6 or a four-door, like the big four-door, whatever it was. Got that and drove straight to Atlanta. I wrote a letter to my parents before I left, just explaining this is what’s happening. I’m leaving. I’m done. I’m not going to prison. Love you. Sorry.
Identity theft
Lex Fridman
Sorry.
Sorry.
Matthew Cox
Sorry. Sorry. I know I’m a disappointment. Sorry. Bam. I take off, go to Atlanta. When we went to Atlanta, I already had the name of a guy named Scott Kugno that I’d done a loan for. I had his vital information. I have his name, date of birth, social security number, mother’s maiden name, and where he was born. One day we were having a conversation and I just slowly pried all that out of him. We’d done a loan for him. So, I already had his name, date of birth, social security number. But, to steal his identity, I need to know where he was born and his mother’s maiden name. Through the course of the conversation, I just pried, “Hey Kugno, is that… What is that? Is that like Irish? Is it…” No, it’s such and such. What’s your mom’s name? Oh, such and such. Oh, okay.
Sorry. Sorry. I know I’m a disappointment. Sorry. Bam. I take off, go to Atlanta. When we went to Atlanta, I already had the name of a guy named Scott Kugno that I’d done a loan for. I had his vital information. I have his name, date of birth, social security number, mother’s maiden name, and where he was born. One day we were having a conversation and I just slowly pried all that out of him. We’d done a loan for him. So, I already had his name, date of birth, social security number. But, to steal his identity, I need to know where he was born and his mother’s maiden name. Through the course of the conversation, I just pried, “Hey Kugno, is that… What is that? Is that like Irish? Is it…” No, it’s such and such. What’s your mom’s name? Oh, such and such. Oh, okay.
Were you born here? Were you born in… Weren’t you from? Ah, man. I was born here. I was born in such… Oh, Hillsborough County. It was no big deal. We get to Atlanta. I make a fake ID for both of us. But, keep in mind, I don’t have a driver’s license. I do. But, they’re fake. I can’t give this to a cop. Can’t give a driver’s license that says David Freeman.
Lex Fridman
What’s David’s residence? Florida or is it Georgia?
What’s David’s residence? Florida or is it Georgia?
Matthew Cox
No, this is Florida. But, it was just a made up name. I’d gone to high school with a kid named David Freeman. So, I had an ID, but I can’t give that to a cop. That’s enough to rent a place or do something. So, we go to Atlanta, make an ID, set it up, make some business cards, set up a couple of websites, set up… get an HQ which is… it’s a company that will… You can do virtual… You can rent virtual… You can rent offices and they’ll answer your phone for a hundred bucks a month and they’ll forward them. So, it seems like you have an office.
No, this is Florida. But, it was just a made up name. I’d gone to high school with a kid named David Freeman. So, I had an ID, but I can’t give that to a cop. That’s enough to rent a place or do something. So, we go to Atlanta, make an ID, set it up, make some business cards, set up a couple of websites, set up… get an HQ which is… it’s a company that will… You can do virtual… You can rent virtual… You can rent offices and they’ll answer your phone for a hundred bucks a month and they’ll forward them. So, it seems like you have an office.
They give you a phone number that you call up and they say, “Hi, United Southern Bank.” They’ll answer the phone and forward messages. We get one of those, make a business card for Becky. She rents a house from a guy named Michael Shanahan. We rent Michael Shanahan’s house. It’s like $200,000. $200,000 house in Alpharetta. I then go to… Wait, I then order Scott Kugnos birth certificate, social security card. I think I registered to vote in his name and I made a lease agreement in his name. And, I think that’s all I needed. Then I went to Alabama and got a driver’s license in his name. I went into the DMV, give him all these documents, which almost all of them are real except for the lease.
They said, “Sit over there.” I sit over there. I sit down. Boom. 20 minutes later I have a driver’s license. It was 20 something dollars. It was nothing. I get the driver’s license. Now, I’m driving this. I’m still driving a car, an Audi that is in the name of Matt Cox. I park that. I then go get social security to issue me a social security number in the name’s Scott Kugno. I then turn around and I go and I get a loan. You put down 20, 30%. There’s all these first time buyers. 30% down. Get like a Honda or something. Now, we’re living in a house, we’ve got some furniture, bedroom furniture. I go downtown. I pull the title to this guy, Michael Shanahan’s house, and I go downtown and I satisfy the loan on his house. He had two loans with Bank of America.
I create two satisfaction of loans from Bank of America. Michael Shanahan owns a house in the name Michael Shanahan. He has one mortgage with Bank of America and a second one. When you pay your mortgage off, the way public records knows it’s paid off is they mail public records a satisfaction of mortgage. It’s a one-page document, and it’s notarized.
Lex Fridman
You’ve got two of those.
You’ve got two of those.
Matthew Cox
I filled out two. I created two of them. I just ordered… You can do research. When I went downtown, I researched Bank of America satisfaction of mortgages. And, thousands show up. I just grab a couple of them and now I know what the basic template is. They’re all different by the way. It’s not like you even have to be that close. But, whatever. I mimicked some of them. I had a notary stamp. Not hard to get. You go into three different office depots and you say, “Hey, I need a notary stamp.” You give them the information and you come back four day… or whatever, a week later and they give it to you.
I filled out two. I created two of them. I just ordered… You can do research. When I went downtown, I researched Bank of America satisfaction of mortgages. And, thousands show up. I just grab a couple of them and now I know what the basic template is. They’re all different by the way. It’s not like you even have to be that close. But, whatever. I mimicked some of them. I had a notary stamp. Not hard to get. You go into three different office depots and you say, “Hey, I need a notary stamp.” You give them the information and you come back four day… or whatever, a week later and they give it to you.
So, I’ve got these notary stamps. I notarize the satisfactions. I go downtown, I file them. Boom, the mortgages are gone. Keep in mind, Bank of America, he’s still paying the mortgages. They don’t know that they’ve been satisfied in public records. They’re not notified. Those are gone. But, it takes about a month or two for it to show up. Atlanta was that far behind. I think it was Fulton County. They were just way behind. So, we just have to dick around for a while. We’re going on little vacations. We’re going to New Orleans. We’re going to different places as Scott Kugno, driving a car as Scott Kugno.
We opened up several bank accounts. We opened multiple bank accounts. And then, we ended up going to Vegas. We do go to Vegas. But, what happened was we were driving around and I remember thinking, telling her, I was like, “This is a problem. We have to get real IDs, real driver’s licenses. I mean, this is real. But, this is a real person too. He may stumble across it.” What I did was I started running ads in magazines saying home loans available. Good credit, bad credit, no problem. Call now. Government loans, government… VA, FHA, whatever. Call this number. People start calling and I’m getting their information. One of the guys I got was Michael Eckert. Yeah, I remember. Michael Eckert. Poor Michael Eckert. I actually legally changed his name to Michael Johnson at one point. But, at this point, it was just Michael Eckert. I wanted to see… I’m bored, I want to see what the process is. How much does it cost? Is this possible? Let me see if I can change this guy’s name. It was 1,500 bucks. I changed it.
Lex Fridman
Without him ever showing up anywhere. So, you can fake-
Without him ever showing up anywhere. So, you can fake-
Matthew Cox
Well, I have a driver’s license in his name.
Well, I have a driver’s license in his name.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Matthew Cox
I am him. So, he did show up. He showed up at the lawyer’s office.
I am him. So, he did show up. He showed up at the lawyer’s office.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Matthew Cox
So, I do that. I’m living in the house and we’re driving along one day and I’m saying, “We got to get real. These people that are calling…” One guy, I get his information. But, during the course of taking the application and I’m asking these government survey questions at the very end, there’s like 20 questions and I’m rambling them off. At some point, he was like… He volunteered, I never even asked anybody about criminal history. He ended up saying something, “Well, I do have a felony. Does that matter? It was a DUI. I’ve had a couple DUIs. But, I got my license back.” That was part of the reason he had bad credit. It was like, “Okay, no. Nope, it doesn’t matter. Don’t worry.”
So, I do that. I’m living in the house and we’re driving along one day and I’m saying, “We got to get real. These people that are calling…” One guy, I get his information. But, during the course of taking the application and I’m asking these government survey questions at the very end, there’s like 20 questions and I’m rambling them off. At some point, he was like… He volunteered, I never even asked anybody about criminal history. He ended up saying something, “Well, I do have a felony. Does that matter? It was a DUI. I’ve had a couple DUIs. But, I got my license back.” That was part of the reason he had bad credit. It was like, “Okay, no. Nope, it doesn’t matter. Don’t worry.”
I’m thinking you’re not getting a loan. So, I’m just taking… I’m just stealing from you, stealing your information. I get all this information. I’m gathering it. One of the things I said to Becky while we are sitting at this stoplight is I’m like, “We got to get people’s real information. For instance, I said, “What if I steal somebody’s identity? I get a driver’s license in his name four states from where he lives, and he gets a DUI? I could get pulled over two years later and get arrested for a DUI that he got in Florida.” She’s like, “Well, what are you thinking? Are you thinking criminals or you thinking prisoners, mental patients?” I looked over and there was a homeless guy holding a sign. I went, “Like that guy.” I’ll never forget, she goes, she says, “The hobo?” I don’t know who calls them hobos. She’s like, “The hobo?” I said, “Yes. That guy.”
I said, “Hold on.” Pulled over to a Subway. Got out. She went inside to get Subway. I walk across the street, pulled out like 20 bucks. I said, “Hey bro, can I ask you some quick questions real quick?” He’s like, “Yeah, what’s up?” I go, “Here’s 20 bucks.” I said, “Listen.” I said, “When was the last time you were gainfully employed?” He’s like, “Ah,” whatever, “10 years.” I’m like, “Oh, okay. Do you have a criminal record?” He’s like, “Ah, I’ve been arrested with misdemeanors, like vagrancy.” He names off some things, drunk in public, whatever. I was like, “Are you on probation?” He goes, “I can’t do probation. They don’t give us probation. They keep us for 90 days. They release us. The judge knows I can’t do… I’m not going to show up for a probation.” I’m like, “Okay, do you have a driver’s license?” He’s like, “Maybe, I don’t think so.” I go, “Did you get a DUI?” He’s like, “No, I think it’s just expired.” Did you have a driver’s license with you? He’s like, “No, I got nothing.” I’m like, “Okay. Well…” He told me he lived in a tent in the woods. So, I gave him another 20 bucks, asked him a few more questions. I remember in the middle of it, he said, he goes, “What, are you’re taking a survey or something?” I remember thinking… not thinking, I chuckled. I go, “You get a lot of surveyors out here like that.” He goes, “Yes. Sometimes.” I was like, “Really?” He goes, “Yeah.” He said, “People from halfway houses and…” What did he say? Social workers and stuff. They’ll come out and they’ll pass out stuff and they’ll ask us questions and stuff. I’m like, “Oh, okay.”
I thought, “That’s good to know.” I go back. I get grab Becky, and she’s like, “Oh, did you give him money?” I said, “I give him like 40 or 60 bucks or something. Forget what.” She was like, “What a waste of money.” I thought that was good. That was money well spent. I said, “That guy’s perfect.” I said, “That guy… He’s got everything. He has no way to be contacted. He has no documentation on him.” I said, “He’s not going to drive a car. He’s not going to get a DUI. He has an expired license. I just have to get his license reinstated and I can be him.” I went home. I typed up what I called a federal statistical survey form, and I made a little thing. I mean, I went online. I mean, I’m always filling out federal documents as a mortgage broker. It looked identical. I mean, I had this little… the recycle symbol, and it was like Federal Form 17017. I print out these forms. I go buy a clipboard. I make a little Salvation Army ID. I pin it on me. I go out and I start-
Lex Fridman
Doing surveys.
Doing surveys.
Matthew Cox
I start surveying homeless people. Don’t judge me, bro. I was in a bad spot. I was in a bad spot. I see the judgment. I see the judgment. Let’s maintain civility here. Stay neutral. Stay neutral.
I start surveying homeless people. Don’t judge me, bro. I was in a bad spot. I was in a bad spot. I see the judgment. I see the judgment. Let’s maintain civility here. Stay neutral. Stay neutral.
Lex Fridman
These homeless guys, I mean, they have a social security number. They have a birth certificate, I guess. I mean, they’re a real person. They’re a real person.
These homeless guys, I mean, they have a social security number. They have a birth certificate, I guess. I mean, they’re a real person. They’re a real person.
Matthew Cox
Right. They’re just not using their real person.
Right. They’re just not using their real person.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. They’re not actively engaging with the economic system, the financial system. They’re not employed. They don’t have housing, all that.
Yeah. They’re not actively engaging with the economic system, the financial system. They’re not employed. They don’t have housing, all that.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, they don’t file taxes. One of the questions I even asked the guy, one of the last questions, I said, “Do you believe that you will be gainfully employed within the next two years?” Every one of them said no, no, no. It was like, okay, they’re not even trying. They all had alcohol problems. Or, honestly, the few of them I talked to, it was pretty clear. I mean, it takes literally five minutes, less than five minutes to fill out the form. I filled it out for them, of course. But, even filling it out and that brief just asking questions back and forth, half of them, you could tell you’ve got some mental illness. Something’s not right with you. These aren’t guys that are going to go out and are going to get jobs. They’re not cleaning up. They were perfect for my purposes, as horrible as I know that sounds.
Yeah, they don’t file taxes. One of the questions I even asked the guy, one of the last questions, I said, “Do you believe that you will be gainfully employed within the next two years?” Every one of them said no, no, no. It was like, okay, they’re not even trying. They all had alcohol problems. Or, honestly, the few of them I talked to, it was pretty clear. I mean, it takes literally five minutes, less than five minutes to fill out the form. I filled it out for them, of course. But, even filling it out and that brief just asking questions back and forth, half of them, you could tell you’ve got some mental illness. Something’s not right with you. These aren’t guys that are going to go out and are going to get jobs. They’re not cleaning up. They were perfect for my purposes, as horrible as I know that sounds.
Lex Fridman
Do you feel bad about this little small tangent?
Do you feel bad about this little small tangent?
Matthew Cox
No. Do I feel bad about it?
No. Do I feel bad about it?
Lex Fridman
The homeless people in society are really… It’s a difficult life. Dealing with mental illness, dealing with drug addiction, all that stuff.
The homeless people in society are really… It’s a difficult life. Dealing with mental illness, dealing with drug addiction, all that stuff.
Matthew Cox
I mean, listen, being in prison and then the people that are in prison that are going to be homeless or have been homeless, or the mental illness that I’ve dealt with in halfway houses and even doing this, I don’t know what you do with these people. I don’t even know that you house them. You can’t necessarily even house them together. They cause such problems. I don’t know what the solution is other than just keeping them fed maybe and keep them away from normal people so they don’t cause crime or whatever. I don’t know about housing them in one area. That seems like a mistake. There is absolutely no good solution to that problem. None. Because, it’s not like, “Hey, if we gave you a house and we gave you job training and we gave you this,” okay, you might get 5% 10. But, most of them are on the street because they’ve just messed up over and over and over again. They just gave up.
I mean, listen, being in prison and then the people that are in prison that are going to be homeless or have been homeless, or the mental illness that I’ve dealt with in halfway houses and even doing this, I don’t know what you do with these people. I don’t even know that you house them. You can’t necessarily even house them together. They cause such problems. I don’t know what the solution is other than just keeping them fed maybe and keep them away from normal people so they don’t cause crime or whatever. I don’t know about housing them in one area. That seems like a mistake. There is absolutely no good solution to that problem. None. Because, it’s not like, “Hey, if we gave you a house and we gave you job training and we gave you this,” okay, you might get 5% 10. But, most of them are on the street because they’ve just messed up over and over and over again. They just gave up.
Lex Fridman
But, I guess we still have to remember that they’re human beings. We mentioned off-mic Soft White Underbelly, and he highlights the humanity of people who’ve had a real difficult life. He does it well.
But, I guess we still have to remember that they’re human beings. We mentioned off-mic Soft White Underbelly, and he highlights the humanity of people who’ve had a real difficult life. He does it well.
Matthew Cox
Mark Laita, he is amazing. He’s amazing. One of the things he had said was, he was like, “These are real people.” He’s like, “They have stories and they need…” But, if you also talk to Mark, he’ll tell you, “You can’t give them money. You can’t…” He’s tried. Every time he’s reached out and tried to help these guys, put them in apartments, fed them, got them back on their feet, within six months, they’re back on the street. It just happens over and over and over again. I mean, I think the amount of money that would have to be dumped into correcting that problem, I don’t know. I mean, you can say, “Well, yeah. But, just you should do it because it’s the right thing to do.” I don’t know who’s paying for it.
Mark Laita, he is amazing. He’s amazing. One of the things he had said was, he was like, “These are real people.” He’s like, “They have stories and they need…” But, if you also talk to Mark, he’ll tell you, “You can’t give them money. You can’t…” He’s tried. Every time he’s reached out and tried to help these guys, put them in apartments, fed them, got them back on their feet, within six months, they’re back on the street. It just happens over and over and over again. I mean, I think the amount of money that would have to be dumped into correcting that problem, I don’t know. I mean, you can say, “Well, yeah. But, just you should do it because it’s the right thing to do.” I don’t know who’s paying for it.
Lex Fridman
It’s complicated. But, for your purpose, they have a social security number.
It’s complicated. But, for your purpose, they have a social security number.
Matthew Cox
They got 20 bucks. They seem very happy.
They got 20 bucks. They seem very happy.
Lex Fridman
There you are with a clipboard, taking a survey.
There you are with a clipboard, taking a survey.
Matthew Cox
Right. Took a survey, went home, ordered their… And, of course, they give me everything. Name, date of birth, social security number, mother’s maiden name, where they were born. Have they ever been in the armed services? Have they ever had a passport issued? What states have they had identification in? Have they ever been arrested? They ever been on probation? Have they ever claimed Social Security Disability? SSI. I mean, I had like 17 questions and it absolutely answered everything.
Right. Took a survey, went home, ordered their… And, of course, they give me everything. Name, date of birth, social security number, mother’s maiden name, where they were born. Have they ever been in the armed services? Have they ever had a passport issued? What states have they had identification in? Have they ever been arrested? They ever been on probation? Have they ever claimed Social Security Disability? SSI. I mean, I had like 17 questions and it absolutely answered everything.
What high school did you go to? Because, high school transcripts are great for documentation. A lot of times they’ll ask you for high school. Can you get us a copy of your high school transcripts? That’s good to know. And, I’m a big believer in overkill. I mean, I ordered a ton of stuff. If I needed three things to get a driver’s license in your name right, I’d come in with six. Because, what you do is you get in front of the guy at the DMV and you fumble through like, “Oh, I got this. What else do you need?” I know exactly what you need. But, they’ll be like, “Oh, was that high school transcript? Yeah, I’ll take that. Oh, voter’s registration card. Give me that. Yeah, you’re perfect. You’re good. Sit down. Right over there.” That’s it.
Lex Fridman
Who’s, by the way, lurking in the shadows trying to catch you? You’ve mentioned FBI, Secret Service, you mentioned… I think I’ve heard you mentioned US Marshals, which is interesting. Cops, in general, the police, CIA, I guess CIA is international only.
Who’s, by the way, lurking in the shadows trying to catch you? You’ve mentioned FBI, Secret Service, you mentioned… I think I’ve heard you mentioned US Marshals, which is interesting. Cops, in general, the police, CIA, I guess CIA is international only.
Matthew Cox
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
FBI is internal.
FBI is internal.
Matthew Cox
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Okay. When you’re doing this, who are you afraid of?
Okay. When you’re doing this, who are you afraid of?
Matthew Cox
By the time I’ve gotten to Atlanta, within four or five days, the FBI raided my office. I guess I missed that.
By the time I’ve gotten to Atlanta, within four or five days, the FBI raided my office. I guess I missed that.
Lex Fridman
Back in Florida.
Back in Florida.
Matthew Cox
Back in Florida. When I left and drove to Atlanta and left, remember the FBI was going to show up a few days later. They were going to arrest me.
Back in Florida. When I left and drove to Atlanta and left, remember the FBI was going to show up a few days later. They were going to arrest me.
Lex Fridman
And, they did.
And, they did.
Matthew Cox
They did. They showed up… I left on a Sunday night or something. Because, for some reason in my stupid thought, I thought, “Well, they won’t arrest me on the weekend.” Like they don’t work on the weekends. They came on a… whatever it was, like a Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday. Within a few days, they’d come in the office, they raid it, they’re looking for me. But, I’m gone. Nobody knows where I am. Now, I’m surveying the homeless guys and I turn around and I’m ordering their documents. And, as their documents are showing up, I’m going to different states and getting IDs. I’m going to Florida. Over the course of this whole thing, I’ve had 27 driver’s licenses in seven different states. I’ve had two dozen passports. Because, if you’re going to get the driver’s license in the guy’s name, you might as well get… or an ID even, you might as well get a passport. Because, a passport’s not difficult to get. They don’t fingerprint you. All they’re doing is saying, “This is your ID and were you born here?” Then they run a check. It comes back or it doesn’t. Back then, you could do it expedited and I’d have it in two weeks. Now, it takes like 90 days or 60 to 90 days to get one.
They did. They showed up… I left on a Sunday night or something. Because, for some reason in my stupid thought, I thought, “Well, they won’t arrest me on the weekend.” Like they don’t work on the weekends. They came on a… whatever it was, like a Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday. Within a few days, they’d come in the office, they raid it, they’re looking for me. But, I’m gone. Nobody knows where I am. Now, I’m surveying the homeless guys and I turn around and I’m ordering their documents. And, as their documents are showing up, I’m going to different states and getting IDs. I’m going to Florida. Over the course of this whole thing, I’ve had 27 driver’s licenses in seven different states. I’ve had two dozen passports. Because, if you’re going to get the driver’s license in the guy’s name, you might as well get… or an ID even, you might as well get a passport. Because, a passport’s not difficult to get. They don’t fingerprint you. All they’re doing is saying, “This is your ID and were you born here?” Then they run a check. It comes back or it doesn’t. Back then, you could do it expedited and I’d have it in two weeks. Now, it takes like 90 days or 60 to 90 days to get one.
Lex Fridman
If you have multiple ideas for a single identity, that’s more proof.
If you have multiple ideas for a single identity, that’s more proof.
Matthew Cox
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Wait, what number did you say? How many IDs? How many identities?
Wait, what number did you say? How many IDs? How many identities?
Matthew Cox
I had… Well, I’ve had over 50 identities. But, I’ve had 27 driver’s licenses issued from state DMVs, Department of Motor Vehicles.
I had… Well, I’ve had over 50 identities. But, I’ve had 27 driver’s licenses issued from state DMVs, Department of Motor Vehicles.
Lex Fridman
Legitimately?
Legitimately?
Matthew Cox
Legitimately. I walked into the DMV, said, “Hi, my name’s Michael Eckert.” And, I just moved here about three weeks ago, four weeks ago. Here’s my lease. I lost my driver’s license, bro. I don’t know what I did with it. I don’t know. I don’t know what happened. I don’t know. They’re like, “It’s all right. What do you have? I need a proof of residency.” Well, I have my lease. Oh, okay. I need a primary. Okay, here’s my birth certificate. Okay. And, I need a secondary. Here’s my social security card. But, I also registered to vote.
Legitimately. I walked into the DMV, said, “Hi, my name’s Michael Eckert.” And, I just moved here about three weeks ago, four weeks ago. Here’s my lease. I lost my driver’s license, bro. I don’t know what I did with it. I don’t know. I don’t know what happened. I don’t know. They’re like, “It’s all right. What do you have? I need a proof of residency.” Well, I have my lease. Oh, okay. I need a primary. Okay, here’s my birth certificate. Okay. And, I need a secondary. Here’s my social security card. But, I also registered to vote.
My girlfriend made me vote immediately, and she said I would need that. Oh yeah, it’s perfect. You’re good. I don’t even need that. Okay, great. Stand over there. Pay that person. They call your number, 275. Forty five minutes later, you go, you pay your 25 bucks. You stand in front of the screen. They take a picture. You got a driver’s license. You walk out, it’s still warm. It’s beautiful. It smells like popped plastic. It’s amazing. So, I am opening up different bank accounts in these guys’ names and just about-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, sorry. Well, what are you mostly doing with the identities? You opening up different bank accounts?
Yeah, sorry. Well, what are you mostly doing with the identities? You opening up different bank accounts?
Matthew Cox
Right now?
Right now?
Lex Fridman
Are you doing credit… starting to establish credit or no?
Are you doing credit… starting to establish credit or no?
Matthew Cox
Some of them. I might order secured credit cards. So, I’m building their credit. It’s not helping me in any way. I’m just sending out $500 to get a Capital One card or a American… I’m sorry, a Bank of America secured credit card, whatever. So, I’m building their credit. But, not all of them. Only a few. Because, although I’m collecting them, I’m also going to be moving soon. I’m only here to get a few hundred thousand dollars and move. I need some kind of a base. So, I don’t want to start getting credit cards and building up a history in Atlanta in anybody’s name. But, I am getting driver’s licenses in other states, like North Carolina, South Carolina.
Some of them. I might order secured credit cards. So, I’m building their credit. It’s not helping me in any way. I’m just sending out $500 to get a Capital One card or a American… I’m sorry, a Bank of America secured credit card, whatever. So, I’m building their credit. But, not all of them. Only a few. Because, although I’m collecting them, I’m also going to be moving soon. I’m only here to get a few hundred thousand dollars and move. I need some kind of a base. So, I don’t want to start getting credit cards and building up a history in Atlanta in anybody’s name. But, I am getting driver’s licenses in other states, like North Carolina, South Carolina.
More scams
Lex Fridman
What’s the primary method of income here when you move to a place? South Carolina, how do you make a hundred thousand at this time?
What’s the primary method of income here when you move to a place? South Carolina, how do you make a hundred thousand at this time?
Matthew Cox
Oh, well, right now, I’m living in this guy’s house and I satisfied his loans. The house is worth 200,000.
Oh, well, right now, I’m living in this guy’s house and I satisfied his loans. The house is worth 200,000.
Lex Fridman
Got it.
Got it.
Matthew Cox
What happens-
What happens-
Matthew Cox
… His loans, the house was worth 200,000.
… His loans, the house was worth 200,000.
Lex Fridman
Got it.
Got it.
Matthew Cox
So what happens is one day we go and we check public records. Remember I told you it takes months for it to show up?
So what happens is one day we go and we check public records. Remember I told you it takes months for it to show up?
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm (affirmative).
Mm-hmm (affirmative).
Matthew Cox
And it shows up. He’s got no mortgages on the house. So now I turn around, and I make a fake ID in the name Michael Shanahan, and I’m living in his house, but I have no credit. There’s no credit. So the ID, I’ve got a social security number, and I order some secure credit cards in his name. So if you pull that credit profile, it shows up saying he’s got some credit cards, but they’re only a month or two old. So I can’t go to Bank of America. I mean, I could, but I needed to get the money as quick as possible. I want to get out of Atlanta.
And it shows up. He’s got no mortgages on the house. So now I turn around, and I make a fake ID in the name Michael Shanahan, and I’m living in his house, but I have no credit. There’s no credit. So the ID, I’ve got a social security number, and I order some secure credit cards in his name. So if you pull that credit profile, it shows up saying he’s got some credit cards, but they’re only a month or two old. So I can’t go to Bank of America. I mean, I could, but I needed to get the money as quick as possible. I want to get out of Atlanta.
And at this point, by the way, there’s multiple articles showing up in Tampa. So the St. Petersburg Times is writing multiple articles about me.
Lex Fridman
With your face.
With your face.
Matthew Cox
With my picture. Yeah. But honestly, it’s post-internet, but it’s in its infancy. Like nobody’s… It’s not huge. And honestly, it’s a local newspaper in Tampa. It’s not that big of a deal. I’m not concerned about that so much at this point. What I’m concerned about is getting a chunk of money and just moving on and kind of reestablishing ourselves in a better way where we’re not living in a building that we’re going to be committing fraud in with our house.
With my picture. Yeah. But honestly, it’s post-internet, but it’s in its infancy. Like nobody’s… It’s not huge. And honestly, it’s a local newspaper in Tampa. It’s not that big of a deal. I’m not concerned about that so much at this point. What I’m concerned about is getting a chunk of money and just moving on and kind of reestablishing ourselves in a better way where we’re not living in a building that we’re going to be committing fraud in with our house.
But I’m living in this place. I make a fake ID in the name Michael Shanahan, and I call up three hard money-lenders. A hard money-lender is a guy that lends his own money or other investors’ money on property, kind of like a bank, but he’s lending his own money so he doesn’t have to really meet the banking requirements, and he can charge a much higher interest rate. These guys are charging 12, 13% interest, simple interest, and they’re only lending you a much lower percentage of the value of your home. So they’re not lending you 90% of the value. They’re lending you 65%, 60%.
So I call three of these guys. They all come out to the house at different times, and each one of them says, “I’ll lend you 100,000,” or it’s like 150,000. They all lend roughly 150,000. So we schedule three separate closings. None of them know about the other person. So what I do is I close one loan on let’s say Monday, and then one on Tuesday, and then one on whatever, Wednesday or Thursday, or they may have all been the same day, to be honest, but I don’t remember.
The point is I go to three separate title companies or real estate attorneys, and we close, and I get checks, after cost and everything the total ends up being roughly 400,000. So I’ve got 400,000.
Becky and I run another scam in Tallahassee, Florida, and we get like 50 grand, plus the ’80s dwindled down to close to nothing. Because we had gone on several vacations. We went to Bermuda, and I think we went to Jamaica. We actually stayed at the Ritz in Jamaica. So it was very nice.
Lex Fridman
You and Becky. So Becky turned out to be pretty good in terms of scams on the road?
You and Becky. So Becky turned out to be pretty good in terms of scams on the road?
Matthew Cox
No, she was useless. She was horrible, and she just spent money all the time. And what I realized too, very quickly, is she’s bipolar. So she’s bipolar, and she’s absolutely insane. She smokes pot all the time.
No, she was useless. She was horrible, and she just spent money all the time. And what I realized too, very quickly, is she’s bipolar. So she’s bipolar, and she’s absolutely insane. She smokes pot all the time.
Lex Fridman
Did that matter for you personally or did it actually affect how good you were able to do these particular scams?
Did that matter for you personally or did it actually affect how good you were able to do these particular scams?
Matthew Cox
It was that she was the type of person that would start an argument at 1:00 in the morning and scream at the top of her lungs and get the cops called. So I can’t have the police called. I can’t get taken downtown and fingerprinted. I can’t have the police showing up. I don’t know who’s looking. We haven’t had plastic surgery at this point. We’re still pulling money together.
It was that she was the type of person that would start an argument at 1:00 in the morning and scream at the top of her lungs and get the cops called. So I can’t have the police called. I can’t get taken downtown and fingerprinted. I can’t have the police showing up. I don’t know who’s looking. We haven’t had plastic surgery at this point. We’re still pulling money together.
Lex Fridman
Oh, Becky.
Oh, Becky.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, Becky’s a problem. And at some point, actually, we send her to a psychiatrist, and they put her on Zoloft. And she takes it for a month or two, and then she stops taking it. She thought she was all better. Like you’re not all better.
Yeah, Becky’s a problem. And at some point, actually, we send her to a psychiatrist, and they put her on Zoloft. And she takes it for a month or two, and then she stops taking it. She thought she was all better. Like you’re not all better.
Lex Fridman
So can you give me a timeline here? How long are you able to be on the road here successfully?
So can you give me a timeline here? How long are you able to be on the road here successfully?
Matthew Cox
Three years.
Three years.
Lex Fridman
Three years.
Three years.
Matthew Cox
This is me. This is the first few months.
This is me. This is the first few months.
Lex Fridman
Three years. Three years.
Three years. Three years.
Matthew Cox
Yeah. What happens is we get that little chunk of money, we deposit it into these bank accounts, and we start pulling out cash, which works out fine because we’ve got a bunch of accounts and we’re pulling out little amounts, 7,000, 5,000, 8,000. And I would cash checks against her accounts, and they would call her to verify, “Oh, is there’s someone here trying to cash a check for $9,000? Can you verify the payee?” And they go, “Oh yeah, that’s Scott Cogno.” “Oh, okay, thank you.” And they cash the check.
Yeah. What happens is we get that little chunk of money, we deposit it into these bank accounts, and we start pulling out cash, which works out fine because we’ve got a bunch of accounts and we’re pulling out little amounts, 7,000, 5,000, 8,000. And I would cash checks against her accounts, and they would call her to verify, “Oh, is there’s someone here trying to cash a check for $9,000? Can you verify the payee?” And they go, “Oh yeah, that’s Scott Cogno.” “Oh, okay, thank you.” And they cash the check.
These are new accounts, so it looks odd, but we were always… I open the account. So what ends up happening is we’re cashing them, and I remember getting really frustrated because it was just taking forever. And I had gone into a bank one time. And they have banks where they actually cash large checks. Like if you go into Bank of America and you try and cash a check for $15,000 or 25,000, they probably won’t do it. They’ll tell you, “We don’t have that much cash on hand. We don’t this, we don’t that.”
They have certain banks that do that. So they told me where one of those was. I went there, I had a check for like 29,000 that had been cut on a closing for Michael Shanahan. Remember I refinanced Michael Shanahan’s? I’ve got a check for 29,000 that was issued to Scott Cogno. So I’m sitting in the bank, I go in there and I say, “I need to cash this.” And she says, “You’re going to have to talk to the manager.” I go, okay. She says, “Go sit down over there.” I go sit down in the little glass cubicle.
He comes over and he says, “I see you’re trying to cash this check.” And I was like, right. He goes, “Why don’t you just deposit in your own bank?” And I went, “My bank is a credit union or something and it’s in Florida. They’ll hold this thing for two weeks. I need the money now. I have people I need to pay.” He was like, “Well, I’m not sure.” And I was like, “Well, it’s fine. It’s a cashier check. It’s good.” And he goes, “No, it’s good. It’s good.” I said, “You have the money?” And he’s like, “Yeah, we have the money.” He said, “It’s just odd. Hold on,” he goes back in the back, and he comes back and he says, “Where’d you get the check?” Cashier’s check. I said, “It was a cashier’s check. It was drawn off of a closing for somebody’s property that we’re doing. The company I work for, we’re putting on an addition on,” okay, that makes sense.
Comes back, goes, “Well, why do you need cash?” And I was like, “I’m cashing guys’ checks that work for the company. There’s a lot of these guys that are Mexican guys. They give them a check, they go to a check cashing company or they get charged 5, 10%. So I cash them,” I’m like, I don’t under… What? The check’s good, right? And he’s like, “Yeah, we’re just trying to verify some stuff.” And he went, “Yeah, hold on.” And he leaves again.
And I remember my cell phone rang, and I pick up the phone, it’s Becky. She goes, ” What are you doing? What’s taking so long?” I go, “Ah, the guy’s being a jerk. He doesn’t want to give me the money.” Well, she’s like, “Oh my God, get out of the bank. Get out of the bank.” And I went, “I can’t get out of the bank. The guy’s got my ID, he’s got my credit card, my ID, and the check for 29,000. He’s going to call the police if I just jump up and run.” And I go, “Don’t call me again. I’ll let you know. It’ll be fine.” I hang up the phone.
She calls back, same conversation, “I’m bouncing all the walls. I’m like, I’m going crazy.” I’m like, “It’ll be fine.” Hang up the phone. He comes back out and I said, “Hey, so what’s taking so long?” And he goes, “We’re trying to get in touch with Michael Shanahan to verify the check.” That’s not good for me. I’m thinking, right, right. Okay. Okay. And he walks away, the phone rings, it’s Becky, “What’s going on?” I go, “They’re trying to get ahold of Michael Shanahan.” She goes, “Oh my God! Oh my God!”
And I’m like, oh my God. And I remember thinking I shouldn’t have left her the keys. There’s a good chance I run out of this place and she’s not there.
Lex Fridman
But by the way, when you’re sitting there, you’re who? Scott? You’re Scott?
But by the way, when you’re sitting there, you’re who? Scott? You’re Scott?
Matthew Cox
I’m Scott Cogno.
I’m Scott Cogno.
Lex Fridman
And then-
And then-
Matthew Cox
The other guy’s-
The other guy’s-
Lex Fridman
He’s calling Michael Shanahan, okay.
He’s calling Michael Shanahan, okay.
Matthew Cox
Right. They’re saying they’re trying to get in touch with Michael Shanahan. So then the phone rings, my cell rings again, and I look, and it’s not Becky. So I pick up the phone, I go, hello? And she says, “Hi, this is Kim from Sun Trust Bank. Is this Michael Shanahan?” So I’m like, ” Yes, it is Michael Shanahan.” And she says, “There’s a guy here, he’s trying to cash a check. It’s very large. Could you verify the payee?” And I go, “Sure. It’s Scott Cogno.” I said I believe the amount’s $29,000. And she goes, “That’s right. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.” I said, okay. I said, “Hey, by the way, how’d you get my number? This is my cell number.” And she’s like, “Oh, I’m sorry. We called the title company, and the title company gave us your phone number.” Well, I closed those loans. That’s my cell. That’s why if they looked in any other way, they could have gotten in touch with the real Michael Shanahan. So I was like, oh, okay. Hang up the phone.
Right. They’re saying they’re trying to get in touch with Michael Shanahan. So then the phone rings, my cell rings again, and I look, and it’s not Becky. So I pick up the phone, I go, hello? And she says, “Hi, this is Kim from Sun Trust Bank. Is this Michael Shanahan?” So I’m like, ” Yes, it is Michael Shanahan.” And she says, “There’s a guy here, he’s trying to cash a check. It’s very large. Could you verify the payee?” And I go, “Sure. It’s Scott Cogno.” I said I believe the amount’s $29,000. And she goes, “That’s right. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.” I said, okay. I said, “Hey, by the way, how’d you get my number? This is my cell number.” And she’s like, “Oh, I’m sorry. We called the title company, and the title company gave us your phone number.” Well, I closed those loans. That’s my cell. That’s why if they looked in any other way, they could have gotten in touch with the real Michael Shanahan. So I was like, oh, okay. Hang up the phone.
Lex Fridman
You answered the phone from the bank while sitting in the bank-
You answered the phone from the bank while sitting in the bank-
Matthew Cox
As Scott Cogno.
As Scott Cogno.
Lex Fridman
As Scott pretending to be Mike.
As Scott pretending to be Mike.
Matthew Cox
Right. So I just verified the check myself.
Right. So I just verified the check myself.
Lex Fridman
As Matthew pretending to be Scott pretending to be Michael.
As Matthew pretending to be Scott pretending to be Michael.
Matthew Cox
Right. So I wait there, terrified still. They come out about two minutes later, the manager comes out, plus a woman, I’m assuming maybe that was Kim. She never said anything. And she walks out, and he counts out the money twice. 29,000. 29,000. And I stand up, and I mean, I remember shoving the money in my pockets. Like I’m trying to get out of there so quick. I’m like, hey. I’m like, okay, cool. I’m thinking this whole thing feels bad.
Right. So I wait there, terrified still. They come out about two minutes later, the manager comes out, plus a woman, I’m assuming maybe that was Kim. She never said anything. And she walks out, and he counts out the money twice. 29,000. 29,000. And I stand up, and I mean, I remember shoving the money in my pockets. Like I’m trying to get out of there so quick. I’m like, hey. I’m like, okay, cool. I’m thinking this whole thing feels bad.
And I’m getting up, and so I’m starting to walk out of the bank and he said, “Excuse me, Mr. Cogno?” And I said, yes, sir. I turned around. And he goes, “I’d like you to know that I feel very apprehensive about this transaction.” And I go, “Really? What is it exactly?” He goes, “I can’t put my finger on it.” And I go, “It’ll come to you.” And I turn around and I just bolt right out of there.
And keep in mind, a week or so later, the Secret Service shows up. Did you cash a check for $29,000? So what’s so funny is that was one of the last checks we cashed. So we ended up with like 400,000.
Lex Fridman
Was there a connection between the Secret Service and this guy?
Was there a connection between the Secret Service and this guy?
Matthew Cox
No, the-
No, the-
Lex Fridman
The apprehension.
The apprehension.
FBI Most Wanted
Matthew Cox
So the FBI is looking for me kind of in Tampa, and they’ve put out a fugitive warrant for me, which is how the US Marshals got involved.
So the FBI is looking for me kind of in Tampa, and they’ve put out a fugitive warrant for me, which is how the US Marshals got involved.
Lex Fridman
So the US Marshals track down fugitives.
So the US Marshals track down fugitives.
Matthew Cox
Yes, federal fugitives, they track down.
Yes, federal fugitives, they track down.
Lex Fridman
But everybody’s after you. You’re on every list.
But everybody’s after you. You’re on every list.
Matthew Cox
Right. I’m on the FBI’s most wanted list. At that point, the Secret Service got involved once I leave Atlanta. So when Becky and I pack up our bags and we leave Atlanta, the Secret Service got involved because of identity theft, banking, identity theft. The Secret Service doesn’t just do counterfeiting and protect the president. They also protect the financial infrastructure of the United States, and they especially have jurisdiction when identity theft is involved.
Right. I’m on the FBI’s most wanted list. At that point, the Secret Service got involved once I leave Atlanta. So when Becky and I pack up our bags and we leave Atlanta, the Secret Service got involved because of identity theft, banking, identity theft. The Secret Service doesn’t just do counterfeiting and protect the president. They also protect the financial infrastructure of the United States, and they especially have jurisdiction when identity theft is involved.
Lex Fridman
So identity theft plus bank fraud there, that’s when they [inaudible 02:57:33]
So identity theft plus bank fraud there, that’s when they [inaudible 02:57:33]
Matthew Cox
They move. Yeah, that’s it. That’s their territory.
They move. Yeah, that’s it. That’s their territory.
Lex Fridman
And the US Marshals are just fugitives.
And the US Marshals are just fugitives.
Matthew Cox
US Marshals, just fugitives. They don’t do any investigations.
US Marshals, just fugitives. They don’t do any investigations.
Lex Fridman
Okay, but they’re all kind of working together?
Okay, but they’re all kind of working together?
Matthew Cox
Yeah. Yeah. The US Marshals are, let’s say, an arm of all of the various law enforcement agencies. Federal agencies, not the states. The states have their own fugitive task forces or fugitive…
Yeah. Yeah. The US Marshals are, let’s say, an arm of all of the various law enforcement agencies. Federal agencies, not the states. The states have their own fugitive task forces or fugitive…
Lex Fridman
So when you leave Atlanta, basically everybody’s after you.
So when you leave Atlanta, basically everybody’s after you.
Matthew Cox
Everybody’s after me.
Everybody’s after me.
Lex Fridman
Did you know this at that time? Or did you ever sense it?
Did you know this at that time? Or did you ever sense it?
Matthew Cox
No. I mean now every day you’re just looking your name up every day. I’m not, because I’m just trying to get a bunch of money and just blend in, right? Things were not as interconnected at that time as they are now, but they’re starting to get interconnected. But of course, I have no idea how much. I barely go on the internet for anything. Dating. That’s the only thing on the internet. I had never been on Facebook. At this point, Facebook isn’t even out yet. This is 2006.
No. I mean now every day you’re just looking your name up every day. I’m not, because I’m just trying to get a bunch of money and just blend in, right? Things were not as interconnected at that time as they are now, but they’re starting to get interconnected. But of course, I have no idea how much. I barely go on the internet for anything. Dating. That’s the only thing on the internet. I had never been on Facebook. At this point, Facebook isn’t even out yet. This is 2006.
Lex Fridman
Still, were you trying to stay low?
Still, were you trying to stay low?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, I am. I’m not a flashy person. I’m not driving… Like I didn’t go out and buy a red Lamborghini. I’m driving 40, $50,000 cars. I’ve had some sports cars, 70, 80. Maybe that’s 150,000 sports car now, but it’s still not flashy. It’s not like it’s bright red or yellow. I mean, it’s always something nondescript.
Yeah, I am. I’m not a flashy person. I’m not driving… Like I didn’t go out and buy a red Lamborghini. I’m driving 40, $50,000 cars. I’ve had some sports cars, 70, 80. Maybe that’s 150,000 sports car now, but it’s still not flashy. It’s not like it’s bright red or yellow. I mean, it’s always something nondescript.
Close calls
And I’m living in areas that these cars are everywhere. So I end up going to Charlotte, North Carolina. We rent an apartment, we decide to run a scam in South Carolina, so I go to Columbia, South Carolina. And in between this period of time, we go to Las Vegas. We go to Las Vegas to drop off a bunch of money to Becky’s son’s father, who’s taking care of her son. We drop off some money there we go, and we start… And while we’re there, it’s like, “Hey, there’s homeless people here.”
Lex Fridman
So you’re always-
So you’re always-
Matthew Cox
You know, usually I don’t feel bad telling these stories. You make me feel bad.
You know, usually I don’t feel bad telling these stories. You make me feel bad.
Lex Fridman
I’m sorry. I’m sorry, my judgment is showing. No, but you have to be collecting identities, I guess, to be constantly creating new identities.
I’m sorry. I’m sorry, my judgment is showing. No, but you have to be collecting identities, I guess, to be constantly creating new identities.
Matthew Cox
So I got my survey forms. So I go, and we go out and I’m taking surveys, and I end up going up to this guy. There’s like two or three guys that are standing on a bench or sitting next to a bench or something. And I see him and I walk up. And one guy gets up and he comes over and he is like, “Hey, what do you need?” And I went, “I’m taking surveys for the Salvation Army to determine where we place our next homeless facility.” And the guy goes, “Oh, I’m not interested.” And they always said that. And I said, ” It pays 20 bucks cash right now. It’ll take you five minutes.” And they’re like, “$20 cash right now?” I was like, yeah. I show them the cash. And they go, “Okay, yeah. What do you need?” Name, date of birth, social security number.
So I got my survey forms. So I go, and we go out and I’m taking surveys, and I end up going up to this guy. There’s like two or three guys that are standing on a bench or sitting next to a bench or something. And I see him and I walk up. And one guy gets up and he comes over and he is like, “Hey, what do you need?” And I went, “I’m taking surveys for the Salvation Army to determine where we place our next homeless facility.” And the guy goes, “Oh, I’m not interested.” And they always said that. And I said, ” It pays 20 bucks cash right now. It’ll take you five minutes.” And they’re like, “$20 cash right now?” I was like, yeah. I show them the cash. And they go, “Okay, yeah. What do you need?” Name, date of birth, social security number.
So when I get to criminal record, he says, criminal record. He’s like, “Yeah, I’ve been arrested three, four times,” he said, “for prostitution.” He said, but they’re like misdemeanors. And I went, okay. And it was like, okay, well prostitution… To me, women get charged with prostitution. Men get charged with solicitation. I went, “Prostitution?” And he said, “Yeah, yeah.” He said, “I offered to blow an undercover cop for 20 bucks.” He said, “That’s what I thought you were coming out here for.” And I was like, no, no, bro. I said okay. And he’s like, yeah. He said, “I mean, a girl’s got to do what a girl’s got to do.” And he made some comment or something. I was like, okay.
So I jot down the rest of it, we’re good. I give him 20 bucks. I get in my car. I leave. We get back to North Carolina. I order all of his documents. His name was Gary Sullivan. I then go to South Carolina. When I go to South Carolina, I get a real estate agent. We drive around for a day. We look at five or six houses. I put five owner financing contracts on five different houses. So he writes up five contracts, all of them are asking for owner financing. I’ll put down 10%. I want owner financing. Two of them end up coming back and saying yes, we’ll do it. I have two closings. One of them is a house that’s worth like 225,000. I put down 25 grand. Another one’s 110,000. I put down 11,000.
So I buy these two houses. I then satisfy the loans on both the houses. Everything seems like it’s going okay, although Becky’s a lunatic at this point. She won’t take her medication. She’s had so many outbursts. And by this time we’ve had plastic surgery. She’s gotten plastic surgery, she’s gotten a boob job, she’s gotten liposuction. I mean, all kinds of stuff.
Lex Fridman
Look quite different? Like appearance changes or?
Look quite different? Like appearance changes or?
Matthew Cox
Thinner, better looking, just tightened everything up. I guess. She had had a kid, and she was 33, 34. I don’t know how old she was. 32, 33? I don’t know, roughly my age. Yeah, she lost like 15 pounds. Not because of the surgery, but just in general, we’re just working out. We’re going mountain climbing. We’re riding bikes. Fraud’s not a full-time job, so we have plenty of time.
Thinner, better looking, just tightened everything up. I guess. She had had a kid, and she was 33, 34. I don’t know how old she was. 32, 33? I don’t know, roughly my age. Yeah, she lost like 15 pounds. Not because of the surgery, but just in general, we’re just working out. We’re going mountain climbing. We’re riding bikes. Fraud’s not a full-time job, so we have plenty of time.
So we’re goofing off, but she’s also a lunatic. She’s getting the cops called. She’s able to go out, and she’s able to stay stoned 24 hours a day. She’s going out with friends, drinking. I never leave the house.
Even to this day, I really barely ever leave the house. I’m very much a homebody kind of person. So the idea that I’m able to make my living doing YouTube and I never have to leave my house, I love that. I don’t ever go anywhere except for the gym and back home. That’s it.
So what happens is I’ve actually moved her out of my apartment. Like I had an apartment downtown, 30-story building. I actually move her into another apartment. She’s that much of a lunatic. We can’t even be in the same place. Multiple times I’ve tried to leave her, she’s called me up and begged me to come back. It’s horrible.
So I end up buying a couple houses in Columbia, South Carolina. I satisfy the loans on the houses. I’ve got an ID, not a driver’s license, but an ID in the name of Gary Lee Sullivan. And I refinanced those houses, because keep in mind, there was owner financing, but they also had mortgages. So there’s something called a wraparound mortgage. So these guys did wraparound mortgages. So let’s say you buy a house for $250,000 and the bank lends you 200,000, and then you owner finance the house to me. So I give you 50 grand down, but I’m not able to get a loan from the bank to pay off your mortgage. So what we do is you do a wraparound mortgage. So I’ll pay you your mortgage and you pay the bank. So there is a second mortgage on the property, but it’s wrapped around your first.
Lex Fridman
That’s legal?
That’s legal?
Matthew Cox
Mm-hmm (affirmative). Yeah. I wouldn’t lie to you. So these have wraparound mortgages. So-
Mm-hmm (affirmative). Yeah. I wouldn’t lie to you. So these have wraparound mortgages. So-
Lex Fridman
You’re always selling, and you’re good at it.
You’re always selling, and you’re good at it.
Matthew Cox
So I go, I satisfy the owner finance loans, the wraparound mortgages, and I satisfy the original loans that these people took out on their own mortgages. One of them, by the way, I sat… You have to sign as the president of the bank, right?
So I go, I satisfy the owner finance loans, the wraparound mortgages, and I satisfy the original loans that these people took out on their own mortgages. One of them, by the way, I sat… You have to sign as the president of the bank, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Matthew Cox
So I sign it as C. Montgomery Burns, which is the aging tycoon, the guy that owns the power plant in the Simpsons TV show. So I sign that and I notarize it, which I thought was cute. I actually wanted to sign all of them cartoon characters, and Becky was screaming her head off and wouldn’t let me do it. Like I wanted to do all the Simpsons, right? But she wouldn’t let me do it. She’s screaming and hollering. Nobody knows who C. Montgomery Burns is.
So I sign it as C. Montgomery Burns, which is the aging tycoon, the guy that owns the power plant in the Simpsons TV show. So I sign that and I notarize it, which I thought was cute. I actually wanted to sign all of them cartoon characters, and Becky was screaming her head off and wouldn’t let me do it. Like I wanted to do all the Simpsons, right? But she wouldn’t let me do it. She’s screaming and hollering. Nobody knows who C. Montgomery Burns is.
So I sign it, notarize it, all of those are satisfied. I then go to multiple banks and I start refinancing all these properties multiple times. So I’m applying for these loans, and I’m getting the loans, and I’m closing, so I’ve got like five or six loans on this one house, it’s like 225,000. I think it was like 230, whatever. I borrow four or five loans on that house. So I borrow like $190,000 like five times. So I’ve got like $800,000, and then I borrow another 3 or 400,000 on the other house, the smaller one. So it ends up being like $1.3 million. It’s actually 1.5 million. It was more. But what happened with that was… So keep in mind, you can only open up so many bank accounts in your name. You can go to Bank of America, they’ll open one. Then you go to SunTrust, they’ll open one. They might even ask you, did you open another bank account today? Because every time you do it, there’s an inquiry into something called Check Systems or AccuCheck. And so then by the time you go to the third bank, they’ll say, “Listen, something’s not right. You’ve got multiple inquiries.” If you go to, whatever, Mercantile Bank, they might go, “Okay, we’re going to open one.” They’re going to need an explanation, but you’re not opening more than three. By the third one, they’re going to be like absolutely not. Something’s wrong.
So I’ve got multiple identities, but I can only open up so many banks. The other problem is that these checks, they’ll only give you so much money on a refi. Usually after 100,000, they only want to let you walk away with let’s say a $100,000. So one of the things I did was I would typically record another mortgage and have them pay that mortgage off. So I opened a corporation to do that, so I could then turn around and go open corporate bank accounts. Because now it’s not going off my information, it’s going off the corporation, so I can open up multiple corporate bank accounts.
Lex Fridman
Well, these corporations are fake or real?
Well, these corporations are fake or real?
Matthew Cox
No, no. I went to a real corporate attorney and had him open them. I gave him whatever. I gave him like $1,500, $2,000, and he opened up a corporation for me, Gary Sullivan, and I then turned around and I went and opened up multiple bank accounts in that corporation’s name.
No, no. I went to a real corporate attorney and had him open them. I gave him whatever. I gave him like $1,500, $2,000, and he opened up a corporation for me, Gary Sullivan, and I then turned around and I went and opened up multiple bank accounts in that corporation’s name.
Lex Fridman
How are you keeping track of all this? Is it in your head or do you have good organization?
How are you keeping track of all this? Is it in your head or do you have good organization?
Matthew Cox
Oh no, every single identity has its own file with plastic inlays, sleeves for their passports.
Oh no, every single identity has its own file with plastic inlays, sleeves for their passports.
Lex Fridman
That’s nice and organized.
That’s nice and organized.
Matthew Cox
For all this. Yeah, it’s super organized.
For all this. Yeah, it’s super organized.
Lex Fridman
You open this. I’m Gary now.
You open this. I’m Gary now.
Matthew Cox
Right. That’s exactly what it is. You kind of go over, boom, boom, boom, boom. You sit in your car for a minute, you put it down, you walk in. Well, what happens is it went up to 1.5 million, and I’m pulling money out of the bank, and then one day I got a phone call on Gary Sullivan’s cell phone. The guy, it’s a lawyer. They call up, he says, “Hey, I’m a lawyer with Washington Mutual. We have an issue.” I said, “What’s that?” He says, “We got a phone call from the title company.”
Right. That’s exactly what it is. You kind of go over, boom, boom, boom, boom. You sit in your car for a minute, you put it down, you walk in. Well, what happens is it went up to 1.5 million, and I’m pulling money out of the bank, and then one day I got a phone call on Gary Sullivan’s cell phone. The guy, it’s a lawyer. They call up, he says, “Hey, I’m a lawyer with Washington Mutual. We have an issue.” I said, “What’s that?” He says, “We got a phone call from the title company.”
One of the title companies that I was attempting to refinance one of the pieces of property with noticed that I… They’d been sent a document that showed that I had purchased the property, and I said I purchased it cash, and the documents said I purchased at cash. And they got that, and there was actually a mortgage on the property. And so somehow or another, they connected it and they called Washington Mutual and they said, “Look, there’s an issue. We have a fraudulent document here.” And he said, “So we went and we looked, and it turns out that we pulled public records and that there is a mortgage in front of us, several mortgages in front of us. So there’s like three or four mortgages in front of me, Washington Mutual. You owe us.”
And it wasn’t that much. It was like it 100 grand, right? Like 95 or 100. And I said okay. And he said, “So there’s an issue here. You’ve got a few mortgages in front of us, and we’re supposed to be your first mortgage, and we’re not supposed to be two mortgages behind or three.” And I was like, “Okay, sounds like an error. Not a big deal. Have you contacted law enforcement?” He said, “No, I haven’t. I was hoping we could rectify this some other way.” I said, “You know what? I think we can. I’m going to have my lawyer call you back. I’m going to go to his place right now. Give me about two hours.” No problem.
I immediately run, jump in my car, head towards South Carolina, call my corporate lawyer, tell him, “Look, I need to talk to you. Here’s what’s going on.” I explain it to him. He doesn’t really understand. He says, “This sounds pretty complicated. My law partner is a criminal defense attorney. I’m going to set up a meeting right now with all of us.” Okay.
I get there 45 minutes later. I walk in the door, I sit down. He says, “What happened?” They said, “Gary, this doesn’t sound right. What happened?” I said, “Okay, so listen. Bought this house. I bought it cash. I then refinanced it,” I didn’t buy it cash, but I told him, “I bought it cash. I refinanced it like four or five times within a day or two of each other.” And they were like, “How is that even possible?” I was like, “Well, I went to different title companies,” and I explained how I do it. I said, “Washington Mutual just found out that they’re in second position or third position.” Or I said, “But they may be in fourth position.” You know they mail these things in so you never know. And he was like oh my God. He’s like, “What do you want to do?” I said, “I want you to contact them and agree for them to not contact the authorities provided I pay them off.” He goes, “Do you have the money?” I said, “I do have the money. I can go get the money right now.”
He calls the lawyer. This is back when faxes, right? So they fax some documents back and forth. They do a couple emails back and forth, and they have a conversation. I remember the lawyer started arguing because he wanted to charge me like yield spread and fees and stuff, and I was like, “What are you talking about? I’ll pay it.” So it ends up being a little over 100,000. And I’m like, that’s it. So he’s like, okay. And so he says, “Okay, that sounds good.” And so he said, “Okay, all you have to do is go get the check.” And he said, “bring it to a Washington Mutual branch. Tell them to call.” I said, “I’m not going into a Washington Mutual branch, bro. I’ll bring you the check.” So he calls them back, he’s not doing that, right? Okay, I’ll bring it here. You guys take care. He said, “No problem.”
Okay, hang up the phone, and he turns to me and he says, “Okay, well we have a problem.” He said, “We still have the problem of these other mortgages.” And I went, “Right?” I said, “They don’t know anything.” He said, “I know, but Gary,” he said, “what if they find out?” I said, “They find out that they’re like in second and third and fourth place?” He’s like, “Right.” I said, “I leave town.” So they both laugh. They go, “Gary, you can’t just leave town. They have a copy of your driver’s license. They have your social security number. They have your birth certificate. They’ll find you. It’s the FBI.” And I go, “You’re assuming I’m Gary Sullivan.”
Lex Fridman
Wow. You tell them.
Wow. You tell them.
Matthew Cox
And listen, they looked at me and they went… And I remember he said, he goes, “We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.” And I said, “Right, my immediate problem is getting rid of these people.” And he goes, “Right. Right.” So I go get the check, bring it back, give it to them. Never called the FBI.
And listen, they looked at me and they went… And I remember he said, he goes, “We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.” And I said, “Right, my immediate problem is getting rid of these people.” And he goes, “Right. Right.” So I go get the check, bring it back, give it to them. Never called the FBI.
Lex Fridman
Can’t believe you got away with the Washington Mutual.
Can’t believe you got away with the Washington Mutual.
Matthew Cox
Oh, bro…
Oh, bro…
Lex Fridman
I mean, these are all really close calls, it seems like.
I mean, these are all really close calls, it seems like.
Matthew Cox
No, this is the close call. I have two more close calls that my hands sweat thinking about it. I walk into Wachovia. I just opened this account two months ago, so it’s a new account. So whenever I would go in there, I’d say, “Hey, I need $7,000, $6,000.” Anything over $3,000, they had to call to get permission, like authorization. So she’s like, “Okay, I got to go call.” I said no problem. So the girl walks in the back, I’m sitting there waiting, all of a sudden a massive person reaches over my hand and grabs my wrist, and somebody grabs it from the other one, and they pull my hands behind my back. These are two of possibly the largest law enforcement officers I’ve ever seen in my entire life. And they’re massive. And they handcuff me and they say, “Mr. Sullivan, you’re being detained. We’re taking you into custody, and we’re holding you until a detective gets here.”
No, this is the close call. I have two more close calls that my hands sweat thinking about it. I walk into Wachovia. I just opened this account two months ago, so it’s a new account. So whenever I would go in there, I’d say, “Hey, I need $7,000, $6,000.” Anything over $3,000, they had to call to get permission, like authorization. So she’s like, “Okay, I got to go call.” I said no problem. So the girl walks in the back, I’m sitting there waiting, all of a sudden a massive person reaches over my hand and grabs my wrist, and somebody grabs it from the other one, and they pull my hands behind my back. These are two of possibly the largest law enforcement officers I’ve ever seen in my entire life. And they’re massive. And they handcuff me and they say, “Mr. Sullivan, you’re being detained. We’re taking you into custody, and we’re holding you until a detective gets here.”
Lex Fridman
Who are these guys? Is this just Marshalls or is this cops or what?
Who are these guys? Is this just Marshalls or is this cops or what?
Matthew Cox
These are Sheriff’s deputies.
These are Sheriff’s deputies.
Lex Fridman
Sheriff’s deputies, okay. So Gary Sullivan, right?
Sheriff’s deputies, okay. So Gary Sullivan, right?
Matthew Cox
Right. And as they walk me in the back, they’re calling me Mr. Sullivan. They sit me down, and by now the Secret Service are looking for me. They were calling us John and Jane Doe, but now they figured out who we were. And so now I’m on the Secret Service’s Most Wanted list. I’m not number one, right? I probably was, but we just found out I was on that list. So it is getting bad.
Right. And as they walk me in the back, they’re calling me Mr. Sullivan. They sit me down, and by now the Secret Service are looking for me. They were calling us John and Jane Doe, but now they figured out who we were. And so now I’m on the Secret Service’s Most Wanted list. I’m not number one, right? I probably was, but we just found out I was on that list. So it is getting bad.
So they sent me down, and I’m waiting, and I remember thinking that the FBI was coming. I don’t really know. At that point, I couldn’t tell you the difference between everybody. And then five minutes go by and I’m sitting there going, ” What is going on? Do you guys have any idea what’s going?” They’re like, “We don’t know. We’re just grunts. We just do what we’re told.”
So suddenly this guy walks in, he’s probably in his early thirties, maybe. He walks in, gray suit, I think he looks like he’s FBI. He says, “Hey, I’m a detective with the…” I want to say Richland County, whatever, sheriff’s department or police department, whatever. And I was like, oh, okay. And he says, “Yeah, listen, we’ve got an issue. Wachovia, they want us to arrest you.” He said, ” They’re saying that you’ve got three mortgages on your house.” And I go, “Is that illegal?” And he looked at me and he went, “You know, to be honest, I don’t know.”
And I distinctly remember thinking, I’m walking out of here. All I have to do is convince this guy I haven’t done anything wrong. He’s already said he doesn’t know. So he gets on the phone with the head of Wachovia’s fraud department, and he’s saying, “This guy is running what’s called a shotgunning scam,” which is absolutely right.
Lex Fridman
What is a shotgunning scam?
What is a shotgunning scam?
Matthew Cox
It’s where you close on so many loans simultaneously, they can’t catch it. Anyway, they start going back and forth, and he’s on the phone and he’s like, “Why did you close three loans?” I said, “It’s not illegal. I have a first mortgage, a second mortgage, and a home equity line of credit. That’s perfectly legal.” And he goes, and you can hear the guy. “They’re all first mortgages,” and I said, “I read every one of those documents. Not one of them said they were first mortgages.” And they don’t. First mortgages don’t say they’re first mortgages. It’s the placement of the mortgage, the placement of the lien that determines is it a first, second, or third.
It’s where you close on so many loans simultaneously, they can’t catch it. Anyway, they start going back and forth, and he’s on the phone and he’s like, “Why did you close three loans?” I said, “It’s not illegal. I have a first mortgage, a second mortgage, and a home equity line of credit. That’s perfectly legal.” And he goes, and you can hear the guy. “They’re all first mortgages,” and I said, “I read every one of those documents. Not one of them said they were first mortgages.” And they don’t. First mortgages don’t say they’re first mortgages. It’s the placement of the mortgage, the placement of the lien that determines is it a first, second, or third.
So it’s possible that I wouldn’t have known it. It’s certain that I could have read those documents and not known. And he’s like, “That’s not true!” And he’s screaming. And so I go, yeah, listen. And he said, “Well, you’re taking it out all cash. Why are you taking all cash?” I said, “I don’t know if this might be illegal,” I said I don’t know. I said, “I mean, I work for a labor company-“
Matthew Cox
I work for a labor company, Labor on Demand. I pull out my business card. You can call. So, I’m like, “I work for Labor on Demand.” I said, “We hire a lot of guys that they don’t have bank account. So, the company pays them.” Then usually, I’ll pull out money and I’ll cash their checks, because they get charged like 10% of these check cashing companies. I feel bad. I know the checks are good, so I just deposit them. I mean, I don’t know if that’s illegal. I don’t think that’s illegal. He’s like, “No, no, no, that’s fine. That’s a decent thing to do it. That’s fine.” I’m like, “Oh, okay.” He’s talking to the guy and Wachovia, screaming out, hollering. He’s going back and forth, back and forth. So, we’re going back and forth and I’m just derailing everything this guy says.
I work for a labor company, Labor on Demand. I pull out my business card. You can call. So, I’m like, “I work for Labor on Demand.” I said, “We hire a lot of guys that they don’t have bank account. So, the company pays them.” Then usually, I’ll pull out money and I’ll cash their checks, because they get charged like 10% of these check cashing companies. I feel bad. I know the checks are good, so I just deposit them. I mean, I don’t know if that’s illegal. I don’t think that’s illegal. He’s like, “No, no, no, that’s fine. That’s a decent thing to do it. That’s fine.” I’m like, “Oh, okay.” He’s talking to the guy and Wachovia, screaming out, hollering. He’s going back and forth, back and forth. So, we’re going back and forth and I’m just derailing everything this guy says.
At one point, he’s screaming, “He’s committing fraud. We want him arrested.” He’s like, “I don’t know what to charge him with.” He’s like, “Hey, look. How did you even do this?” I go, “Look, I didn’t do this.” I said, “I came to Wachovia. I met with a loan officer.” I said, “I need a first mortgage. I need to pull out $100,000. I want to start buying houses.” He goes, “That’s right. You own another house here too, don’t you?” I said, “I do.” I said, “We’re putting a new roof on it. We’re going to build an addition. We’re putting in a pool. I’m buying one right down the street from that one.” Obviously, I’m pulling out money. I said, “So I told them I need $100,000.” They said, “That’s fine.” They said they could only get me $100,000 out for something about Fannie Mae guidelines, which is true.
So, then she said, “I can send you to a friend of mine who’s a loan officer. She can get you a second mortgage,” which she did. Then I told her, “She could only get me $100,000 or so, $190,000.” She said, “You should get an equity line of credit if you’re going to be doing renovating properties.” So she sent me to somebody and they got me an equity line of credit. I said, “I haven’t committed fraud.” I said, “I wouldn’t know how to commit fraud if you told me.” I said, “What sounds more reasonable? A guy that worked for a labor company ripped off a bunch of banks for over half a million dollars, or some loan officers got together and did something illegal?” I said, “There’s a problem at the bank.” He says, “I think you’ve got a problem at the bank.” This guy goes nuts.
While he’s screaming, “He needs to be arrested. This is fraud,” my loan officers have not done anything illegal. They wouldn’t do that. He says, “Look at his ID. His ID is fake. His ID starts with 000.” South Carolina ID start with 000. This guy’s in California. He has no idea. So, when he says that, the detective looks at my ID and he goes, “Listen.” He said, “This is a real ID. I ran this guy through NCIC.” He said, “This is Gary Sullivan.” I looked at him. I go, “Now I’m not Gary Sullivan.” I go, “Come on, bro. What are we doing here?” He goes, “I know Gary. I know.” He says, “I’m going to take him downtown. I’m going to talk to my whatever, lieutenant, whoever captain. I’m going to fill out a police report and I’ll let you know.” He hangs up. I get up. They’ve taken the handcuffs off. I stand up.
As we’re walking out with the detectives, as we’re all walking out, he goes, “Hey, you have an ID. Do you have a driver’s license?” I went, “I do, but it’s in Nevada.” He goes, “Oh, that’s right.” He goes, “You’re from Vegas.” He looks at the two deputies and they all grin. I think he ran me through NCIC, which means he ran a statewide criminal database, which means he thinks I’ve been arrested three times for prostitution in Vegas.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Matthew Cox
Listen, I’m humiliated. I was just like, “Oh, man.” So one of the cops goes, “Here, give me the ID,” takes the ID. He goes, “I’ll check and see,” because I have to follow him back in my car. So, he goes, and by the way, my car is in the name Michael Eckert. So, Michael Eckert, he doesn’t have a photograph of Michael Eckert, because you can’t pull up photographs from other states. So, he doesn’t have a photograph, but he knows that’s not my car. He asked me, “Whose car are you driving?” I said, “Oh, that’s my boss, Michael Eckert.” I said, “That’s my boss.” He goes, “Oh, Michael Eckert?” I said, “Yeah, exactly.” I’m like, “Oh, my God.” So I’m thinking he knows Michael Eckert, knows it’s registered in North Carolina, knows the address, which is where I was currently living. That’s a problem.
Listen, I’m humiliated. I was just like, “Oh, man.” So one of the cops goes, “Here, give me the ID,” takes the ID. He goes, “I’ll check and see,” because I have to follow him back in my car. So, he goes, and by the way, my car is in the name Michael Eckert. So, Michael Eckert, he doesn’t have a photograph of Michael Eckert, because you can’t pull up photographs from other states. So, he doesn’t have a photograph, but he knows that’s not my car. He asked me, “Whose car are you driving?” I said, “Oh, that’s my boss, Michael Eckert.” I said, “That’s my boss.” He goes, “Oh, Michael Eckert?” I said, “Yeah, exactly.” I’m like, “Oh, my God.” So I’m thinking he knows Michael Eckert, knows it’s registered in North Carolina, knows the address, which is where I was currently living. That’s a problem.
So, the deputy grabs the ID, walks outside, comes back. I have no idea if this homeless guy has a driver’s license in Nevada. I don’t know. He had nothing on him. He comes back and he goes, “Does he have a valid license?” He goes, “Yeah, it’s valid.” He hands it to him or he hands me the ID and he goes, “It’s valid.” He looked at me, he goes, “Yeah, well…” He said, “It says, he’s 5’11.” It was like 5’10, 5’11, and I’m clearly not 5’10 or 5’11. They all look at me and I go, “Fellas, with a good pair of shoes.” They all go, “Follow us, Gary.” I follow them back to the police station. Becky is calling me on the phone, screaming her head off.
Now, I’d always told Becky, “If I ever get arrested, immediately, go get me a lawyer. The lawyer will be able to get me out on bond,” because I’ll be arrested for something stupid. I said, “It’ll be something like trying to cash a fake check.” All my IDs are real, so it won’t be for a fake ID. So, my ID won’t be in question. Most police departments and sheriffs at that time did not run your fingerprints through AFIS, because they charge them for that. So, they don’t typically do it unless your identity is in question. Mine wouldn’t be. I have a valid driver’s license or a valid ID in that state. So, I go back. She’s screaming, she’s like, “Oh, my God. You don’t understand. I just checked the internet, the website. You are number one on the Secret Service’s most wanted list.”
I was like, “I got bigger problems right now. They just held me in the bank. I’m following them right now.” She was like, “Get on the interstate. Go, go.” I cannot go. The detective’s in front of me. The cops are behind me. They’re escorting me to the police. Listen. She’s like, “Oh, my God! Run! Run!” I go, “Look, not a NASCAR driver.” It’s a sports car, but it’s not going to outrun a radio or a helicopter. That’s not going to happen. I know it seems nice. I’m not that guy. I said, “Look, you don’t understand. I was in handcuffs 30 minutes ago. I just talked my way out of him. I’m going to get out of this.” I said, “The worst that’s happens is I’ll be arrested as Gary Sullivan. You can get me an attorney. He can get me out.”
She goes, “I’m not getting you an attorney. I’m not getting you out on bond. I’m not risking everything I’ve got for you,” because she has all the money. We’ve got $700,000, $800,000 at this point. By the way, she’s not even in North Carolina at this point. She’s relocated to Houston, Texas. Because when this scam fell apart, we were going to move to Texas. So, we were already moving there.
Lex Fridman
But by the way, just a small tangent, where do you store money in situations like this? When you talk about $800,000, do you have to keep moving accounts to make sure it’s not accessible by FBI?
But by the way, just a small tangent, where do you store money in situations like this? When you talk about $800,000, do you have to keep moving accounts to make sure it’s not accessible by FBI?
Matthew Cox
Well, there’s about $600,000 or $700,000 accounts, but keep in mind, I’m getting that out in cash. There’s no Bitcoin. None of that stuff exists. So, I probably should have bought diamonds or bought gold. I don’t know any of that. All I could think of is go in slowly, be patient, don’t drain the accounts, fluctuate them. I was getting cashier’s checks from one account to another. So, the balances were doing this. They weren’t just going … They were doing this, and then one day, boom, they’re gone.
Well, there’s about $600,000 or $700,000 accounts, but keep in mind, I’m getting that out in cash. There’s no Bitcoin. None of that stuff exists. So, I probably should have bought diamonds or bought gold. I don’t know any of that. All I could think of is go in slowly, be patient, don’t drain the accounts, fluctuate them. I was getting cashier’s checks from one account to another. So, the balances were doing this. They weren’t just going … They were doing this, and then one day, boom, they’re gone.
Lex Fridman
Okay, got it.
Okay, got it.
Matthew Cox
We’ve gotten out like $600,000 or $700,000. There’s still $600,000 or $700,000 in the bank, but I’m not going back. I’m done. Well, look, I go in. So, I go into the police station. Well, first she says, “If you go in the police station, I’m done. If you get arrested, you’re done.” I said, “Well, then I better not get arrested.” I hang up the phone. The cop’s standing behind my car. I get out. I go in the police station, I walk in. I fill out the police report. He tells me, “I got to talk to my captain real quick. Can you wait?” He couldn’t leave me in his cubicle. He goes, “Can you wait in the hallway? I can’t leave you in the cubicle.” I said, “No, no problem.”
We’ve gotten out like $600,000 or $700,000. There’s still $600,000 or $700,000 in the bank, but I’m not going back. I’m done. Well, look, I go in. So, I go into the police station. Well, first she says, “If you go in the police station, I’m done. If you get arrested, you’re done.” I said, “Well, then I better not get arrested.” I hang up the phone. The cop’s standing behind my car. I get out. I go in the police station, I walk in. I fill out the police report. He tells me, “I got to talk to my captain real quick. Can you wait?” He couldn’t leave me in his cubicle. He goes, “Can you wait in the hallway? I can’t leave you in the cubicle.” I said, “No, no problem.”
So I go and I wait in the hallway. In the hallway are a whole wall full of, on the corkboard, wanted posters, black and white, black and white, car thief, rapist, murderer, Secret Service’s most wanted. My face is right there. I’m like, “Holy Jesus.” Everything in me told me, “Run, bro.” Just fucking [inaudible 03:28:08] right now. Right now, just go. Your luck’s run out. There were so many, I didn’t think he was going to see it, but everything in me just said run. The problem is if you’ve ever been into a police station, you’re not getting out of it. Do you understand?
Lex Fridman
There’s a lot of cops around.
There’s a lot of cops around.
Matthew Cox
Well, not just that, but they buzz you in. You get in the elevator, you have to punch in a code. You have to punch in a code to get back out of the elevator. You have to punch in a code to get into the next door. I mean, it’s impossible. I’m not going to get in the elevator. The cop comes back up. He said, “Hey, Gary, appreciate it. No problem. My captain said, we’re good. We’re going to wait for a phone call from the…” No, wait. The district attorney called already. They’re looking into it. I’m going to go ahead and let you go. I go downstairs. He walks me to my car. He said, “Look, do me a favor.” He is like, “We do have some serious questions at this point. The district attorney says there’s some things.” I said, “Not with me.” He said, “Well, just do me a favor.” He goes, “Don’t leave town.”
Well, not just that, but they buzz you in. You get in the elevator, you have to punch in a code. You have to punch in a code to get back out of the elevator. You have to punch in a code to get into the next door. I mean, it’s impossible. I’m not going to get in the elevator. The cop comes back up. He said, “Hey, Gary, appreciate it. No problem. My captain said, we’re good. We’re going to wait for a phone call from the…” No, wait. The district attorney called already. They’re looking into it. I’m going to go ahead and let you go. I go downstairs. He walks me to my car. He said, “Look, do me a favor.” He is like, “We do have some serious questions at this point. The district attorney says there’s some things.” I said, “Not with me.” He said, “Well, just do me a favor.” He goes, “Don’t leave town.”
I said, “Bro, I own two houses here. I’m not going anywhere.” I said, “I’m telling you right now. Wachovia, they fucked up.” He’s like, “I believe you. I believe you.” Whatever he said, I hope they’re right. I’m sure you’re right. Okay. So, I get in my car. I leave. I go to two more banks, pull out more money, but at one point, I go into a bank and two of the cashiers practically slam into each other trying to get to the phone. I can tell something’s up. I go, “No, no, no, no. Something’s up.” So I get in my car back out. One of them even runs out and looks at the tag number. So, I drive. I get in the interstate. I go. Becky, of course, I’m sorry. I love you. I would’ve never done that. I was just scared. I understand.
Lex Fridman
Becky sounds like a handful.
Becky sounds like a handful.
Break up with Becky
Matthew Cox
Oh, my God. So, I go all the way back to Charlotte. I pack up my apartment. I drive all the way to Houston with my entire apartment packed up, by the way, in a U-Haul. The next day, the next morning, she’s got people there packing it up, movers. We pack it up. I drive the U-Haul all the way to Houston. It takes a couple days. We have some guys unload it into a storage unit, because I’m going to stay with Becky until I find my own apartment. As we’re driving around the neighborhood, super nice. She’s living in that 20th floor or something of some huge high rise, great apartment. We drive by and I go, “Oh, stop the car and I want to get out.” It was one of those cone things where there’s flyers for a house. I jump out and I get the flyer. She’s like, “What are you doing?”
Oh, my God. So, I go all the way back to Charlotte. I pack up my apartment. I drive all the way to Houston with my entire apartment packed up, by the way, in a U-Haul. The next day, the next morning, she’s got people there packing it up, movers. We pack it up. I drive the U-Haul all the way to Houston. It takes a couple days. We have some guys unload it into a storage unit, because I’m going to stay with Becky until I find my own apartment. As we’re driving around the neighborhood, super nice. She’s living in that 20th floor or something of some huge high rise, great apartment. We drive by and I go, “Oh, stop the car and I want to get out.” It was one of those cone things where there’s flyers for a house. I jump out and I get the flyer. She’s like, “What are you doing?”
I go, “Well, I was just looking at the flyer,” and she says, “I don’t want to do a scam here. I want to live here. This place is nice. I love it here.” I went, “Right, I understand.” I said “No, but I have to find an apartment.” She goes, “Oh, I’m just so disgusting. You can’t stand to spend even a couple weeks with me.” She goes just ballistic. She’s screaming at the top of her lungs, and I know she’s going to get me caught. She’s never going to get me out. She’s already told me that. So, we go back to the apartment, we go upstairs. I was so scared of this chick, bro. I was so scared. I remember I was going up in the elevator, and this girl gets on, clearly a stripper. I mean, drop dead, just wearing stripper clothes.
As soon she got on, Becky gave me that with the face. I’m like this. I’m staring in the corner and never look at the girl. I remember we get off the elevator, bing, it opens. I bolt off it. Becky bolts off the elevator, and I remember she squeals, “I bet you just love to fuck that tramp.” As the elevator doors are closing, she goes, “Hey!” I thought that was funny. So, I go to the apartment. We have a screaming match, kind of, tell her I want to split up the money. She tells me she’s not going to split the money.
Lex Fridman
Why?
Why?
Matthew Cox
Because she said, “You can go somewhere else and do this again. You’ll have $1 million in six months. I have to live off this money.”
Because she said, “You can go somewhere else and do this again. You’ll have $1 million in six months. I have to live off this money.”
Lex Fridman
Did she threaten you?
Did she threaten you?
Matthew Cox
Oh, it was funny too, because the conversation back and forth, I remember saying, “No, I want half.” She said, “I’ll give you $10,000.” I said, “You’re out of your mind.” I said, “I’m telling right now. You come up with something reasonable. I’ll take all of it.” I said, “I’ll take all of it.” She goes, “And what? Escape in that U-Haul?” She says, “The cops are going to be looking for in five minutes.” I just remember thinking, “Oh, wow.” Keep in mind, all of my IDs, everything are in the storage unit that she has a key to. I’m not getting those. It’s over. I got an ID right now that says my name is Michael Eckert. I’m driving a U-Haul van.
Oh, it was funny too, because the conversation back and forth, I remember saying, “No, I want half.” She said, “I’ll give you $10,000.” I said, “You’re out of your mind.” I said, “I’m telling right now. You come up with something reasonable. I’ll take all of it.” I said, “I’ll take all of it.” She goes, “And what? Escape in that U-Haul?” She says, “The cops are going to be looking for in five minutes.” I just remember thinking, “Oh, wow.” Keep in mind, all of my IDs, everything are in the storage unit that she has a key to. I’m not getting those. It’s over. I got an ID right now that says my name is Michael Eckert. I’m driving a U-Haul van.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it sounds like she has a lot of negotiation leverage.
Yeah, it sounds like she has a lot of negotiation leverage.
Matthew Cox
So we start arguing back and forth, and she says, “$100,000. I’ll give you $100,000.” I said, “I’ll take it.” She counts out $100,000. Later when I recounted, it wasn’t even $100,000. It was like $98,000. That’s fine. It’s fine. But we’ve got them all marked, $2,000, $5,000, $6,000. She’s like, “2,000, $5,000, [inaudible 03:33:45].” She ends up stiffen me. That’s fine. It’s not my money. So, I take it, I leave, and as I’m leaving, she’d always called me before on the phone and begged and pleaded and cried. I messed up. Please give me a chance. I’m sorry. I’ll take my medication. I’m sorry. I thought it was better. I thought it was okay.
So we start arguing back and forth, and she says, “$100,000. I’ll give you $100,000.” I said, “I’ll take it.” She counts out $100,000. Later when I recounted, it wasn’t even $100,000. It was like $98,000. That’s fine. It’s fine. But we’ve got them all marked, $2,000, $5,000, $6,000. She’s like, “2,000, $5,000, [inaudible 03:33:45].” She ends up stiffen me. That’s fine. It’s not my money. So, I take it, I leave, and as I’m leaving, she’d always called me before on the phone and begged and pleaded and cried. I messed up. Please give me a chance. I’m sorry. I’ll take my medication. I’m sorry. I thought it was better. I thought it was okay.
I remember walking out. I put my cell phone on the counter and just walked out, went downstairs, got in the truck, and drove. When I got to Louisiana, I stopped at Baton Rouge. I mean, at some point, I stopped and I think I got a room or something. At one point, I know I stopped.
Lex Fridman
So you drove without a plan essentially?
So you drove without a plan essentially?
Matthew Cox
I drove back to Charlotte to get my car.
I drove back to Charlotte to get my car.
Lex Fridman
Got it.
Got it.
Calling parents
Matthew Cox
So I can’t be driving. So, I stopped at Baton Rouge at one point and got a cell phone, like a burner phone, a Verizon Virgin mobile or something, one of those little phones. So, I bought one. I call a few people at home, back home, called my mom. She’s in tears crying. My dad’s yelling in the background.
So I can’t be driving. So, I stopped at Baton Rouge at one point and got a cell phone, like a burner phone, a Verizon Virgin mobile or something, one of those little phones. So, I bought one. I call a few people at home, back home, called my mom. She’s in tears crying. My dad’s yelling in the background.
Lex Fridman
Just a small attention. What did your mom and dad say? Do you remember anything stand out to you?
Just a small attention. What did your mom and dad say? Do you remember anything stand out to you?
Matthew Cox
No, my dad, well, I hope you’re happy. Every time someone mentions your name, your mother cries, which is funny to me because growing up, he was never concerned about her crying. So, it was like, “Since when did you care?” My dad, he’s an alcoholic. He’s been sober for two years, a month and a half, drinking binge, and then sober for six months, and then did it again, then sober. It just went back and forth and in and out of alcohol drug programs. But like I said, worked for State Farm and he was a top-selling manager. So what they would do is they’d put them into a 30-day program, and I mean, he has to stay there. They were the only ones that had that control, because they’re like, “You’re going to do this and you’re going to pass it, or we’re firing you.”
No, my dad, well, I hope you’re happy. Every time someone mentions your name, your mother cries, which is funny to me because growing up, he was never concerned about her crying. So, it was like, “Since when did you care?” My dad, he’s an alcoholic. He’s been sober for two years, a month and a half, drinking binge, and then sober for six months, and then did it again, then sober. It just went back and forth and in and out of alcohol drug programs. But like I said, worked for State Farm and he was a top-selling manager. So what they would do is they’d put them into a 30-day program, and I mean, he has to stay there. They were the only ones that had that control, because they’re like, “You’re going to do this and you’re going to pass it, or we’re firing you.”
He made a lot of money and he made a lot of money for State Farm. He hired and trained a ton of agents, and he had one of the top performing agencies. So, he was worth a lot to them. What ends up happening is I get that phone that I was telling you about, and I called, talked to my mom. She’s crying. She’s like, “I love you so much. I just want to make sure you’re safe.” I end up calling Susan Barker, which was one of the brokers that worked for me at the time, call her, and I say, “Hey, what’s going on you?” She’s like, “Oh, Matt, what’s going on? FBI is everywhere. They’ve been talking to everybody.” It’s like a year and a half at this point.
Calling FBI
She’s like, ” They come around every once in a while. Everybody’s gone in, everybody’s cooperating, everybody’s talking, everybody’s blaming you,” including her. So, as we’re talking, she said, “Look, the main FBI agent on the case, she told me if I ever spoke with you to have you call her.” I was like, “Yeah, I’m good.” So she goes, “Her name is Candace, and she wants you to call her.” She goes, “At least call her for God’s sakes. Maybe you could just turn yourself in. Maybe you can negotiate just like a couple years. If they’re not going to catch you, then maybe turn yourself in. Maybe it’ll help, at least hear her out.” I was like, “Okay, all right. You’re right.” Hang up the phone. I call Candace. She picks up the phone. I go, “Hey.” She goes, “Who’s this?” I go, “This is Matt Cox.”
She goes, “Hello, Mr. Cox. How are you?” I go, “I’m doing okay. How’s it going? I understand you want to talk to me.” She goes, “I do.” I said, “What can I do for you?” She says, “You can turn yourself in.” I go, “Well, that’s not going to happen.” I said, ” What else do you need?” She said, “I think that you should think about turning yourself in.” I said, “Why? Well, what am I looking at?” She goes, “Well, that’s not how it works. The way it works is you turn yourself in and we take that into consideration.” I said, “No, no, no, no.” I said, “That’s not good enough.” I said, “I’m not stupid enough to turn myself in and hope for the best.” So she says, “Well, let’s talk about this.” I said, “Well, what am I looking at?” She goes, “I don’t really know. I can’t tell you that.”
I said, “Well, then we don’t really have anything to talk about.” She goes, “Well, wait a second.” She said, “Hold on. Let me call the US attorney. Maybe we can work something out.” So I said, “Okay, I’ll call you back.” She said, “Well, give me your phone number, I’ll call you.” I went, “No, no, no.” I said, “I’ll call you.” I said, “I’m going to hang up the phone. I’m going to turn the phone off.” I said, “For all I know, you’re triangulating this phone call right now or something.” She goes, “Oh, give me a break.” She goes, “You’re not that important.” I remember thinking, “Who do you think you are? You’re just some little fraudster guy running around. You’re not a terrorist.” I almost was like, “Oh, okay. Here’s my number,” which she probably already had.
But I almost was like, “Okay, I’ll wait for your call and left my phone number.” I said, “No, you know what?” I said, “I’m going to hang up the phone. I’m going to turn it off anyway, and I’ll call you back.” All right. Whatever. I hang up. I turn off the phone. It turns out I found out later when I ordered the Freedom of Information Act. She actually immediately called the US Marshals, and they immediately called, took the phone number, and tracked back the phone and immediately had two marshals from Baton Rouge go immediately to the place where I had been.
Lex Fridman
Damn.
Damn.
Matthew Cox
Oh, listen. Yeah.
Oh, listen. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
They work fast, and she’s good too.
They work fast, and she’s good too.
Matthew Cox
Not just that. I made the initial calls sitting there where I went and bought the phone. It was a gas station. There was also a Subway station. I had ordered a Subway. I was eating a Subway, playing on my computer, programmed the phone, and making phone calls. So, by the time I talked to her, they’re driving. By that point, I walked and gotten into my vehicle and I leave. But who knows? I don’t know if they showed up 30 minutes late. I don’t know. I could have hung out. Oh, I’m just going to finish my food, could have shown up. So, I call her back an hour or two later. She says, “Listen, first time he hadn’t got back with her.” Then he did. Then he came back. He said, “Seven years. He’s got to turn himself in here.”
Not just that. I made the initial calls sitting there where I went and bought the phone. It was a gas station. There was also a Subway station. I had ordered a Subway. I was eating a Subway, playing on my computer, programmed the phone, and making phone calls. So, by the time I talked to her, they’re driving. By that point, I walked and gotten into my vehicle and I leave. But who knows? I don’t know if they showed up 30 minutes late. I don’t know. I could have hung out. Oh, I’m just going to finish my food, could have shown up. So, I call her back an hour or two later. She says, “Listen, first time he hadn’t got back with her.” Then he did. Then he came back. He said, “Seven years. He’s got to turn himself in here.”
So seven years, that seems like a lot. I kept saying, “Is that seven years for everything?” She goes, “Yeah, that’s for everything.” I was like, “That’s everything that happened in Atlanta and some stuff that you don’t know about?” She said, “Look, what’s important is you turn yourself in Tampa.” I was like, “Okay. Well, I’m closer to Atlanta. Why wouldn’t I turn myself in Atlanta?” She’s like, “Look, you don’t want to do that. You don’t want to do that.” Well, because the Secret Service would’ve gotten the credit if I’d walked in there, right? So I don’t know anything about rivalries and how they work at that time. I do now. So, we go back and forth, back and forth, and I continually ask her, “Does that include Atlanta and everything?” At some point, I realized like, “Oh, she’s just not answering.” So finally, I said, “Listen, you keep dodging this question.” She said, “All I can speak for is Tampa. So, if you come back to Tampa and you cooperate against everyone, seven years.” She wants me to cooperate against my ex-wife. I’m like, “I’m not going to do that.” I said, “My ex-wife didn’t do anything. She doesn’t know anything. She didn’t do anything.” Well, that’s not what I heard. She’s going on and on. I was like, “No, no.” I was like, “Oh, wow.” I was like, “So that’s just for…” She’s like, “That’s right.” I said, “All right, we’re done.” No, wait. I can call the Atlanta US attorney.
Running from cops
No, lady, I wouldn’t believe you if you told me water was wet. I don’t trust you. I hung up the phone, threw it out the window, and I ended up going to Charlotte, dropped off the U-Haul van. I would’ve actually brought it back to the dealer. It’s not like I evaded. I brought it back. So, I bring it back. I go to my old apartment in Downtown Charlotte, and I remember thinking I would be okay. I know by this point that they knew Michael Eckert’s name. They had the address in Charlotte. So, I know by this point, it’s been five, six days. So, I know they’ve tracked him back there. So, I figured if I could get my car, I’m fine. So, I go into the apartment complex, and it’s one of those four or five, six-story apartment. Those are parking things that stack up. So, I go into this parking garage thing. So, I go in.
I’m on the third floor or something. I look at my car and I get in my car. I remember as soon as I drove out of the parking garage, I was like, “I’m good.” So I can go ahead and pull across the street and stop at Starbucks. So, I stop at Starbucks. I walk into Starbucks. I order a Starbucks. I’m standing there waiting for the barista. I look over and it’s two people from the apartment complex staring at me. They’re whispering and pointing, and I remember thinking, “This is the fifth of the month.” I hadn’t paid my rent. I hadn’t been there. So, I thought that makes sense. Maybe I’m picturing an eviction notice or a three-day notice on my door or something. I’m like, “Okay.” Then one of them bolts out the back.
There’s a guy and a girl. The woman runs out the back. He’s standing there staring at me. I get my venti vanilla latte. I get my little frou frou drink. So, I got my frou frou drink. I walk out, I get into the car. He follows me. I get in the car. I set everything up. I put my seatbelt on. I’m okay. He’s standing there staring at me. I’m thinking, “Something’s wrong. What’s up?” I check to see. There’s no traffic. I’m good. I’m about to leave. He starts screaming, “He’s right here! He’s right here!” I look in the rear-view mirror. There’s two guys running towards the back of my car. I punch it and I take off.
Sounds dramatic. It wasn’t that dramatic. There was no cars. I knew there was no cars already pulling out. It wasn’t like a T. J. Hooker, where I jumped over, slid across the hood. They didn’t catch the car and hang onto the back. So, they’re running, and I, boom, hit it.
Lex Fridman
Did you spill the coffee?
Did you spill the coffee?
Matthew Cox
No. It was one of those little things. It was actually nice.
No. It was one of those little things. It was actually nice.
Lex Fridman
You’re making it sound like you were pretty calm. Weren’t you panicking here?
You’re making it sound like you were pretty calm. Weren’t you panicking here?
Matthew Cox
I was terrified. Terrified.
I was terrified. Terrified.
Lex Fridman
So you’re under fear. You’re still operating-
So you’re under fear. You’re still operating-
Matthew Cox
Yeah, I operate.
Yeah, I operate.
Lex Fridman
… calmly.
… calmly.
Matthew Cox
It’s funny you say that, because the Secret Service, when they talk to these guys, all the people that they spoke with said the same thing over and over again. The guy was a professional. He never seemed upset. He never seemed agitated. He was never in a hurry, but most of the time, I wasn’t, because it wasn’t until the police got involved or the federal law enforcement got involved that I started really getting anxious. So, at that point, I take off. I drive about a mile down the road.
It’s funny you say that, because the Secret Service, when they talk to these guys, all the people that they spoke with said the same thing over and over again. The guy was a professional. He never seemed upset. He never seemed agitated. He was never in a hurry, but most of the time, I wasn’t, because it wasn’t until the police got involved or the federal law enforcement got involved that I started really getting anxious. So, at that point, I take off. I drive about a mile down the road.
Lex Fridman
Who were the two guys, by the way?
Who were the two guys, by the way?
Matthew Cox
I thought it was FBI. I ordered the Freedom of Information Act when I got to prison at some point in the future, and it was U.S. Marshals.
I thought it was FBI. I ordered the Freedom of Information Act when I got to prison at some point in the future, and it was U.S. Marshals.
Lex Fridman
It sounds pretty dramatic to me, U.S. Marshals running towards your car, but it’s all right.
It sounds pretty dramatic to me, U.S. Marshals running towards your car, but it’s all right.
Matthew Cox
It’s hard not to tell it like it’s dramatic.
It’s hard not to tell it like it’s dramatic.
Lex Fridman
I understand. There’s not much traffic. It goes. Okay.
I understand. There’s not much traffic. It goes. Okay.
Matthew Cox
It’s not like their fingers were at the back of the car. They’re holding on. But yeah, if I had waited an extra 20 seconds, yeah, they would’ve been on my car. They would’ve been right there at the door.
It’s not like their fingers were at the back of the car. They’re holding on. But yeah, if I had waited an extra 20 seconds, yeah, they would’ve been on my car. They would’ve been right there at the door.
Lex Fridman
Did you consider giving up there or no?
Did you consider giving up there or no?
Matthew Cox
No. Listen, my instinct is get out, go, go, go, go, go, go.
No. Listen, my instinct is get out, go, go, go, go, go, go.
Lex Fridman
You’re already on the run.
You’re already on the run.
Matthew Cox
I’m already in trouble. It’s not like they’re going to add anything. Although, to be honest, it only got worse, because actually, at that point, I drive down the road. I stop at a homeless facility. I survey three guys. I’m a mile down the road. Looking back on it, I think, “What were you thinking?” But there were three homeless guys that were in their early 30s, and they were all Caucasian. That’s hard to find. So, trust me, I’ve spent hours before finding these guys.
I’m already in trouble. It’s not like they’re going to add anything. Although, to be honest, it only got worse, because actually, at that point, I drive down the road. I stop at a homeless facility. I survey three guys. I’m a mile down the road. Looking back on it, I think, “What were you thinking?” But there were three homeless guys that were in their early 30s, and they were all Caucasian. That’s hard to find. So, trust me, I’ve spent hours before finding these guys.
Lex Fridman
So that’s the golden thing you’re looking for is white guys in their 30s.
So that’s the golden thing you’re looking for is white guys in their 30s.
Matthew Cox
Right, because I was in my 30s. I wasn’t an old man, like I am now. So, I surveyed them. I drive straight to Nashville, get to Nashville, drive through an area called Green Hills. Well, first when I got to Nashville, I stayed the night, and the next day I went into… I’m going to say a UPS store. It was actually a Kinko’s. They used to be called Kinko’s.
Right, because I was in my 30s. I wasn’t an old man, like I am now. So, I surveyed them. I drive straight to Nashville, get to Nashville, drive through an area called Green Hills. Well, first when I got to Nashville, I stayed the night, and the next day I went into… I’m going to say a UPS store. It was actually a Kinko’s. They used to be called Kinko’s.
Lex Fridman
I remember Kinko’s. They got bought by FedEx, I feel like.
I remember Kinko’s. They got bought by FedEx, I feel like.
Matthew Cox
Oh, is it FedEx? Okay. Then it was a FedEx store. So, I go in there and you give them like 50 bucks or something or 20 bucks or something. They’d give you like 100 business cards. So, I go get a phone number, a burner phone. I go in there. I call and get a phone number the local HQ. I come up with a name, Manufacture Funding Group. I’ve got two phone numbers. I get business cards made. One of the guy’s name that I surveyed was… His actual name was Joseph Marion Carter Jr. I went by Carter. So, I get business cards made of Joseph Carter. I then drive through Green Hills, took them like an hour to get the card. So, I’m driving through Green Hills. I’m planning on going to an apartment, but still I don’t have an ID. I don’t have anything.
Oh, is it FedEx? Okay. Then it was a FedEx store. So, I go in there and you give them like 50 bucks or something or 20 bucks or something. They’d give you like 100 business cards. So, I go get a phone number, a burner phone. I go in there. I call and get a phone number the local HQ. I come up with a name, Manufacture Funding Group. I’ve got two phone numbers. I get business cards made. One of the guy’s name that I surveyed was… His actual name was Joseph Marion Carter Jr. I went by Carter. So, I get business cards made of Joseph Carter. I then drive through Green Hills, took them like an hour to get the card. So, I’m driving through Green Hills. I’m planning on going to an apartment, but still I don’t have an ID. I don’t have anything.
I’m wondering, “What am I going to do? How am I going to get a place to stay? I’m going to stay in a hotel. What am I doing?” I’m using an ID that the cops are looking for. So, as I’m driving, trying to find this big apartment complex, there’s a guy putting a sign in the front yard of a townhouse, several townhouses, probably in his 60s. I pull in, jump out of the car, and I said, “Hey, is this for rent?” He said, “Yes, it is.” I said, “Oh, okay.” Yeah. Can I see it? Sure. I go in, check it out, come back downstairs. It’s perfect. I said, “Listen, I work for a company, Manufacture Funding Group. Boom, hand thing. I said, “I’ve been in Europe for the last…” I forget what I said.
I said, “England, some little town outside of London, whatever, Dexter, London for the past five years. I don’t really have any credit.” But I said, “I can put down a double the security deposit or whatever you need. Here’s my business card.” He looked at me and he looked at my car and he goes, “You look like an honest young man.” He said, “I’ll take the first month’s rent and deposit.” He said, “Now, go get a lease right now.” I said, “Okay.” I said, “Oh, okay.” Filled out a lease right then, gave me the keys. Nice. Very trusting in that town.
Lex Fridman
Oh, yeah, but there must’ve been also something about you where you just got a nice car.
Oh, yeah, but there must’ve been also something about you where you just got a nice car.
Matthew Cox
You’re going to get a lot of comments to say white privilege.
You’re going to get a lot of comments to say white privilege.
Lex Fridman
I think the charisma has something to do with it.
I think the charisma has something to do with it.
Matthew Cox
Well, I appreciate that. So, he gave me the keys. Listen, I ordered all of Joseph Carter’s vital information, all of his birth certificate, social security card, everything that night from a Kinko’s or I forget where, but from one of these places I went online. You could go online back then. There wasn’t WiFi everywhere. So, I ordered the stuff. It shows up a couple days later. I take that information. I go and I get a driver’s license. Within seven or eight days, I’ve got a driver’s license in his name. I get in that car, Michael Eckert’s car. I drive it all the way back to Nashville. I leave it in long-term park.
Well, I appreciate that. So, he gave me the keys. Listen, I ordered all of Joseph Carter’s vital information, all of his birth certificate, social security card, everything that night from a Kinko’s or I forget where, but from one of these places I went online. You could go online back then. There wasn’t WiFi everywhere. So, I ordered the stuff. It shows up a couple days later. I take that information. I go and I get a driver’s license. Within seven or eight days, I’ve got a driver’s license in his name. I get in that car, Michael Eckert’s car. I drive it all the way back to Nashville. I leave it in long-term park.
Matthew Cox
Michael Eckert’s car, I drive it all the way back to Nashville. I leave it in long-term parking, get on a plane, fly back to Nashville, go in and buy myself a brand new car. It wasn’t brand new, it was a couple of years old, but from CarMax. [inaudible 03:51:15] within two weeks, I am completely 100% set up. I start dating for three, four months. That gets really boring and-
Michael Eckert’s car, I drive it all the way back to Nashville. I leave it in long-term parking, get on a plane, fly back to Nashville, go in and buy myself a brand new car. It wasn’t brand new, it was a couple of years old, but from CarMax. [inaudible 03:51:15] within two weeks, I am completely 100% set up. I start dating for three, four months. That gets really boring and-
Lex Fridman
Where again? In Nashville you said?
Where again? In Nashville you said?
Matthew Cox
Nashville.
Nashville.
Lex Fridman
Okay, got it.
Okay, got it.
Matthew Cox
So I started dating a bunch of chicks and then I end up meeting this one girl.
So I started dating a bunch of chicks and then I end up meeting this one girl.
Lex Fridman
By the way, are you lonely here because you’re on the run? Is that-
By the way, are you lonely here because you’re on the run? Is that-
Matthew Cox
Man, listen, I’m telling you right now, being on the run was the best part of my life.
Man, listen, I’m telling you right now, being on the run was the best part of my life.
Lex Fridman
Really?
Really?
Matthew Cox
You know how all these guys say, “It was horrible and I was always so concerned and looking over my shoulder and,” it wasn’t, I wasn’t. Keep in mind, I’ve gotten five or six traffic tickets while on the run. I went to traffic school as someone else. I got so many traffic tickets in his name, I went to traffic school as him. If I got pulled over, I’m not concerned.
You know how all these guys say, “It was horrible and I was always so concerned and looking over my shoulder and,” it wasn’t, I wasn’t. Keep in mind, I’ve gotten five or six traffic tickets while on the run. I went to traffic school as someone else. I got so many traffic tickets in his name, I went to traffic school as him. If I got pulled over, I’m not concerned.
Lex Fridman
So your confidence just was over the top here.
So your confidence just was over the top here.
Matthew Cox
And I’m driving a vehicle in the name of the driver’s license that I have that was issued by that state. Full coverage insurance. I’m not an idiot. I’m not driving around a stolen car with a broken taillight and a body in the trunk. I’m covered. I’m not concerned about the local cops.
And I’m driving a vehicle in the name of the driver’s license that I have that was issued by that state. Full coverage insurance. I’m not an idiot. I’m not driving around a stolen car with a broken taillight and a body in the trunk. I’m covered. I’m not concerned about the local cops.
Lex Fridman
Plus you’re going to Starbucks, sipping your coffee and driving away from U.S. Marshals [inaudible 03:52:26]-
Plus you’re going to Starbucks, sipping your coffee and driving away from U.S. Marshals [inaudible 03:52:26]-
Matthew Cox
Right, right. That was-
Right, right. That was-
Lex Fridman
You could start believing that it’s impossible to catch you.
You could start believing that it’s impossible to catch you.
Matthew Cox
That is exactly what it is. Every time I just kept getting more and more emboldened, more and more cocky, arrogant. They’re not going to… I’m too good. Which is great until they catch you. And so I meet a girl named Amanda Gardner. Well, what I end up doing is, keep in mind, I’ve only got a hundred thousand or so. So I go and I start buying houses in the area, in this area called J.C. Napier. It’s just close to downtown. And I buy these houses and I start… I buy them for like 60, 70,000, and I record the sales at 210, 190, 205, that sort of thing. Same thing, and I refinance the houses, I start pulling out money.
That is exactly what it is. Every time I just kept getting more and more emboldened, more and more cocky, arrogant. They’re not going to… I’m too good. Which is great until they catch you. And so I meet a girl named Amanda Gardner. Well, what I end up doing is, keep in mind, I’ve only got a hundred thousand or so. So I go and I start buying houses in the area, in this area called J.C. Napier. It’s just close to downtown. And I buy these houses and I start… I buy them for like 60, 70,000, and I record the sales at 210, 190, 205, that sort of thing. Same thing, and I refinance the houses, I start pulling out money.
I meet this girl, Amanda Gardner. We hit it off. Within a few months, she’s moved in. We move into a house in that area. I renovate a house. We move in there. I borrow three and a half million dollars and I’m buying houses. Now I’m buying houses, recording the value. I started all over. I borrow, whatever, three and a half million dollars. I meet Amanda, we move in together. We’re buying-
Lex Fridman
Do you tell her about what you’re-
Do you tell her about what you’re-
Matthew Cox
What she knew was that… It’s odd, right? I have no photographs. Everything I own is brand new. She’s like, there’s nothing in this house that’s more than four months old. So six months old, you have no photographs, you have no internet presence. Every stick of clothing is brand new. You don’t have old pairs of jeans.
What she knew was that… It’s odd, right? I have no photographs. Everything I own is brand new. She’s like, there’s nothing in this house that’s more than four months old. So six months old, you have no photographs, you have no internet presence. Every stick of clothing is brand new. You don’t have old pairs of jeans.
Lex Fridman
Do you tell their stories about the past of any… Is there a fabricated…
Do you tell their stories about the past of any… Is there a fabricated…
Matthew Cox
Initially there was a fabricated version that I owned a mortgage company. My typical story was I owned a mortgage company and I got bought out by Household Bank. Started doing very well, I got bought out by Household Bank. I have a non-compete clause. I ended up with half a million dollars after paying off all my bills and just decided to travel around the U.S. and now I’m here and I’m going to start renovating houses.
Initially there was a fabricated version that I owned a mortgage company. My typical story was I owned a mortgage company and I got bought out by Household Bank. Started doing very well, I got bought out by Household Bank. I have a non-compete clause. I ended up with half a million dollars after paying off all my bills and just decided to travel around the U.S. and now I’m here and I’m going to start renovating houses.
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 03:54:40].
[inaudible 03:54:40].
Matthew Cox
But that, you don’t call home, nobody calls you. Your family doesn’t call you. You tell stories about your mom, your dad, your brother, your sister, friends. I don’t know any of these friends. Never seen any of these friends. They never call you. It’s like, ah, shit. So at some point, I basically just said to her… Look, at one point I had to have a check cut. I refinanced the house and I had, I’m going to say something like, it might’ve been 30,000, but let’s say 20,000. I had a $20,000 check cut to Amanda Gardner because you have to have these checks. You can’t have them cut to me. So I would say, “Hey, there’s a second mortgage on there,” and I’d provide a second mortgage or I’d provide different things. And I knew I need names of people to cut these things to. So I had a check cut for whatever.
But that, you don’t call home, nobody calls you. Your family doesn’t call you. You tell stories about your mom, your dad, your brother, your sister, friends. I don’t know any of these friends. Never seen any of these friends. They never call you. It’s like, ah, shit. So at some point, I basically just said to her… Look, at one point I had to have a check cut. I refinanced the house and I had, I’m going to say something like, it might’ve been 30,000, but let’s say 20,000. I had a $20,000 check cut to Amanda Gardner because you have to have these checks. You can’t have them cut to me. So I would say, “Hey, there’s a second mortgage on there,” and I’d provide a second mortgage or I’d provide different things. And I knew I need names of people to cut these things to. So I had a check cut for whatever.
So I remember we’re at dinner one night. This is before she really knows who I am. And I said, “Hey.” I said, “Oh.” And she goes, “Oh, you had a…” She goes, “How’d that thing go, your refinance?” I go, “Oh, thank God you said that.” Boom. I said, “I need you to deposit this.” Give her a check for 20,000. She’s like, “I can go tomorrow and I can deposit it. And I…” And I’m like, “No, no.” I’m like, “Look, it’s fine. Just deposit.” She’s like, “As soon as it clears, I’ll get you a cashier’s check.” I was like, “No, just deposit it and keep it in your bank. It’s fine.” So she’s like, “What is going on?” So we have this conversation and I tell her, “Look, people are looking for me.” “Who?” “Law enforcement.” “Which ones?” “All of them.”
She’s like, “That doesn’t even… For what?” I go, “Mostly bank fraud.” And she’s like, “Well, how are they not finding you? People know you, your general contractor,” which I met four months before. This guy, six months before. This one, two months before. She’s like, “So and so, so and so, so…” And I’m like, “Right, right. Well,” I said, “Well…” She’s like, “They’ve got your name, they’ve got your…” I go, “Well, that’s identity theft.” And she was like, “What do you mean?” I said, well, “My name’s not… It’s not Joseph Carter.” “What is your name?” I go, “Look, don’t even worry about it. This is what’s happening. This is where I’m at,” and this has been months into the relationship. This is, I’d say, maybe a month or two in, but she was just too inquisitive and… Oh, I know what it was. She found like $40,000 in cash in my freezer one night.
That was another thing that happened. She went to get a Popsicle and she opened up the flip to get a Popsicle, and she opened the wrong one, and there was all cash. And she was like, in this conversation, she’s like, “The other day I opened up the Popsicle box and there’s cash,” And I’m like… So I kind of explain it, but I had a feeling she’s going to be okay with this.
Lex Fridman
So she was okay.
So she was okay.
Matthew Cox
She was okay with it. [inaudible 03:57:40]-
She was okay with it. [inaudible 03:57:40]-
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 03:57:40], to me, that’s just a fascinating conversation to have.
[inaudible 03:57:40], to me, that’s just a fascinating conversation to have.
Matthew Cox
It was a great conversation, but-
It was a great conversation, but-
Lex Fridman
Because oftentimes in relationships, you learn about each other and you find out new things. And here you find out-
Because oftentimes in relationships, you learn about each other and you find out new things. And here you find out-
Matthew Cox
That’s a doozy.
That’s a doozy.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s a good one to find out. The name you’re using is not your real name. And the Secret Service, the FBI and everybody else are looking for you.
Yeah, it’s a good one to find out. The name you’re using is not your real name. And the Secret Service, the FBI and everybody else are looking for you.
Matthew Cox
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And to be honest, you’re not a violent criminal. So it’s like-
And to be honest, you’re not a violent criminal. So it’s like-
Matthew Cox
But she didn’t know my name. She was like, she… And I told her, I said, “Look, if you start digging, if you find out my name, I’ll leave. There’s certain things that catch you. Staying in contact with people that you know, that’s how you get caught. Going back to see people, that’s how you get caught. Telling people who you are, that’s how you get caught.” And I was like, “So I’m Joseph Carter, everything’s fine.” And she was like, “Okay.” And keep in mind too, this girl, oh, your car’s broken or your car’s not doing well, take it and trade it in. We’ll go get you another car. We’ll go get you an Infinity FX or whatever. A 55,000, $60,000 vehicle. She’s driving the equivalent of a beat up old Nova. You want to go on vacation, we’ll go on vacation. You want to do this, you want to do that. So we’re buying houses, we’re renovating houses, we’re building brand new houses. We’re buying lots. She’s in the middle of this, like holy Jesus.
But she didn’t know my name. She was like, she… And I told her, I said, “Look, if you start digging, if you find out my name, I’ll leave. There’s certain things that catch you. Staying in contact with people that you know, that’s how you get caught. Going back to see people, that’s how you get caught. Telling people who you are, that’s how you get caught.” And I was like, “So I’m Joseph Carter, everything’s fine.” And she was like, “Okay.” And keep in mind too, this girl, oh, your car’s broken or your car’s not doing well, take it and trade it in. We’ll go get you another car. We’ll go get you an Infinity FX or whatever. A 55,000, $60,000 vehicle. She’s driving the equivalent of a beat up old Nova. You want to go on vacation, we’ll go on vacation. You want to do this, you want to do that. So we’re buying houses, we’re renovating houses, we’re building brand new houses. We’re buying lots. She’s in the middle of this, like holy Jesus.
There’s hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bank, in our bank account. Her bank account. I open up a corporation in her name, she’s opening up bank accounts, there’s websites. It’s a lot it and while this is happening, we start seeing a friend of hers. So this other girl comes in the picture, her name’s Trina, and Trina is semi-lesbian. So-
Lex Fridman
Is this like a sexual thing-
Is this like a sexual thing-
Matthew Cox
Yeah, so-
Yeah, so-
Lex Fridman
… or actual relationship?
… or actual relationship?
Matthew Cox
No, it’s more like she’s coming over a couple times a week.
No, it’s more like she’s coming over a couple times a week.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Matthew Cox
So we’ve got tons going on and… [inaudible 04:00:01] put this? So while this is happening, I end up coming out in several magazines. So I’m thinking this whole thing’s dying down, but it’s not dying down because now I just got caught and handcuffed in a bank, walked out of the police station, outran Marshals. Although that part, the Marshal thing was never in the papers, but the getting caught and handcuffed in the bank, when that hit the papers, that’s everywhere, bro. That’s huge. Suddenly, Chicago Tribune’s running a series, the fugitives. I’m in Bloomberg Businessweek. They run an article called Sharks in the Housing Pool. Then you’ve got Fortune magazine comes out with a thing because by now, guess what? Becky’s been caught.
So we’ve got tons going on and… [inaudible 04:00:01] put this? So while this is happening, I end up coming out in several magazines. So I’m thinking this whole thing’s dying down, but it’s not dying down because now I just got caught and handcuffed in a bank, walked out of the police station, outran Marshals. Although that part, the Marshal thing was never in the papers, but the getting caught and handcuffed in the bank, when that hit the papers, that’s everywhere, bro. That’s huge. Suddenly, Chicago Tribune’s running a series, the fugitives. I’m in Bloomberg Businessweek. They run an article called Sharks in the Housing Pool. Then you’ve got Fortune magazine comes out with a thing because by now, guess what? Becky’s been caught.
Lex Fridman
Oh, Becky.
Oh, Becky.
Matthew Cox
Becky.
Becky.
Lex Fridman
Is she in Houston or whatever?
Is she in Houston or whatever?
Matthew Cox
In Houston, got caught.
In Houston, got caught.
Lex Fridman
And did she-
And did she-
Matthew Cox
But gangster, bro. The way she, here’s the thing, I-
But gangster, bro. The way she, here’s the thing, I-
Lex Fridman
Hey. Hey, there you go.
Hey. Hey, there you go.
Matthew Cox
Oh, no, she told on me immediately.
Oh, no, she told on me immediately.
Lex Fridman
Oh, she did?
Oh, she did?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, it’s-
Yeah, it’s-
Lex Fridman
Oh, no. Oh, no.
Oh, no. Oh, no.
Matthew Cox
It’s fine. She did the right thing. So here’s what’s funny about that.
It’s fine. She did the right thing. So here’s what’s funny about that.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know about that.
I don’t know about that.
Matthew Cox
Here’s what she says.
Here’s what she says.
Lex Fridman
Loyalty is everything in this world, my friend. That you and I disagree on.
Loyalty is everything in this world, my friend. That you and I disagree on.
Matthew Cox
[inaudible 04:01:14]. I just took off. I just took off-
[inaudible 04:01:14]. I just took off. I just took off-
Lex Fridman
Still. Still.
Still. Still.
Matthew Cox
… on her and left her with, listen, with five or $600,000 is what I left her with.
… on her and left her with, listen, with five or $600,000 is what I left her with.
Lex Fridman
It’s not all about money, Matthew. It’s also about just ride or die. There’s a meaning to that.
It’s not all about money, Matthew. It’s also about just ride or die. There’s a meaning to that.
Matthew Cox
[inaudible 04:01:31].
[inaudible 04:01:31].
Lex Fridman
I’m sorry, go ahead. [inaudible 04:01:34].
I’m sorry, go ahead. [inaudible 04:01:34].
Matthew Cox
So-
So-
Lex Fridman
She said everything.
She said everything.
Matthew Cox
Well, here’s what, when I say gangster, when she gets caught, they come in, she’s in the middle of beauty school. She’s paid for beauty school, she’s going through beauty school. She’s going to open a salon or something. So she’s in there cutting hair, in a class on a mannequin, and all of a sudden, five or six Secret Service agents come in, guns drawn, screaming, get on the ground, get on the ground. She said, everybody dropped the ground. She goes, “I’m sitting there with scissors going…”
Well, here’s what, when I say gangster, when she gets caught, they come in, she’s in the middle of beauty school. She’s paid for beauty school, she’s going through beauty school. She’s going to open a salon or something. So she’s in there cutting hair, in a class on a mannequin, and all of a sudden, five or six Secret Service agents come in, guns drawn, screaming, get on the ground, get on the ground. She said, everybody dropped the ground. She goes, “I’m sitting there with scissors going…”
They grab her, they handcuff her, they bring her in, and the whole time… Now at that point, her name was Rebecca Hickey. She went by Becca. So she’s Rebecca Hickey, she’s got a Texas driver’s license, the whole thing. And they’re screaming at her, and they put her in the car, and they’re driving the whole way. The Secret Service agent told me, “45 minutes, she’s telling us, you’re losing your job, bro. You’re losing…” He’s like, “I couldn’t believe it. We’ve got pictures of her.” We’re like, “This is you.” She’s like, “That’s not me. Are you insane? Look at that chubby little thing.” [inaudible 04:02:43]-
Would not budge until they actually put her hand on the scanner and she goes, “Okay, I’m Rebecca Hauck. What do you need?” They’re like, “Where’s Matt Cox?” She’s like, “I have no idea. That fucker left me like a year ago.” So-
Lex Fridman
But she contributed to the story, to the legend that’s already growing.
But she contributed to the story, to the legend that’s already growing.
Matthew Cox
Because she was interviewed by Fortune magazine and it was horrendous. The article is horrendous. He was abusive. He’s a Don Juan that forced me to fall in love with him, commit mortgage fraud, and then took all the money and left. By the way, they found 40 or 50 grand on her and maybe another 30 or 40 in her bank account, and no other money.
Because she was interviewed by Fortune magazine and it was horrendous. The article is horrendous. He was abusive. He’s a Don Juan that forced me to fall in love with him, commit mortgage fraud, and then took all the money and left. By the way, they found 40 or 50 grand on her and maybe another 30 or 40 in her bank account, and no other money.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Matthew Cox
Where’s the other money? So anyway, and she was, by the way, she got caught. She was in communication with her family. So she’s talking to her mom.
Where’s the other money? So anyway, and she was, by the way, she got caught. She was in communication with her family. So she’s talking to her mom.
Lex Fridman
That’s [inaudible 04:03:41] she got caught ultimately.
That’s [inaudible 04:03:41] she got caught ultimately.
Matthew Cox
And her mother, through multiple conversations, one conversation being, “Mom, I’m doing fine. I can’t tell you where I am exactly, but I’m in Houston, Texas. I’m fine.” Next one, six months later, “I enrolled in beauty school.” Houston, Texas Beauty School. How many are there?
And her mother, through multiple conversations, one conversation being, “Mom, I’m doing fine. I can’t tell you where I am exactly, but I’m in Houston, Texas. I’m fine.” Next one, six months later, “I enrolled in beauty school.” Houston, Texas Beauty School. How many are there?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Matthew Cox
And her mom, bipolar. I just want to see my daughter.
And her mom, bipolar. I just want to see my daughter.
Lex Fridman
Yep.
Yep.
Matthew Cox
I’m going to call the Secret Service.
I’m going to call the Secret Service.
Lex Fridman
Yep.
Yep.
Matthew Cox
I’m doing the right thing.
I’m doing the right thing.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Matthew Cox
And honestly, she is doing the right thing.
And honestly, she is doing the right thing.
Getting arrested
Lex Fridman
So you’re getting more and more famous-
So you’re getting more and more famous-
Matthew Cox
It’s bad.
It’s bad.
Lex Fridman
… nationally.
… nationally.
Matthew Cox
Right, so I’ve got all these [inaudible 04:04:17]-
Right, so I’ve got all these [inaudible 04:04:17]-
Lex Fridman
You’re having a threesome with Amanda and Trina.
You’re having a threesome with Amanda and Trina.
Matthew Cox
And what ends up happening is we end up going… And listen, Amanda and I, we’ve gone to Greece, Italy, Croatia. We’re going on multiple trips. And remember we had just gotten back from a 10-day cruise of the Greek Isles. And we get home and Amanda goes online and there’s a blog about Dateline, about one of their new specials called the Thief of Hearts, and that’s me. Apparently I’m the Thief of Hearts, and I am apparently going around, and it’s based on Becky’s story, that I’m wooing women to commit fraud, stealing all the money and then leaving them to hold the bag.
And what ends up happening is we end up going… And listen, Amanda and I, we’ve gone to Greece, Italy, Croatia. We’re going on multiple trips. And remember we had just gotten back from a 10-day cruise of the Greek Isles. And we get home and Amanda goes online and there’s a blog about Dateline, about one of their new specials called the Thief of Hearts, and that’s me. Apparently I’m the Thief of Hearts, and I am apparently going around, and it’s based on Becky’s story, that I’m wooing women to commit fraud, stealing all the money and then leaving them to hold the bag.
Well, they interviewed her. They’re interviewing multiple people, in my case, they’re putting together an episode. It’s going to be released in a month or so. So I’m terrified. At this point, I’ve been on the run three years, and I’m like… There’s lots of things I could care less about. Fortune, I don’t know anybody that reads Fortune. Bloomberg, come on, I’m hanging out with contractors and laborers and I’m not hanging out with these guys. So local news, who caress. Even local news channels, I don’t care. But Dateline, there weren’t 400 channels back then. So Dateline comes out, even if you don’t see it the first time, they’re going to rerun it in three months, or six months, or 10 years from now, they might rerun it again. My face is going to be on it, so I could be perfectly fine. Five years from now, in one day, the barista that I go to every other day looks at Dateline and goes, “Oh my god, that’s Mr. Johnson,” or, “That’s Mr. Thomas,” or whatever.
So the point is that I was like, “Yeah, I got to go. I can’t stay here. I got to get out of the country.” So I was going to go to… Well, we really started doing research and Amanda ended up saying, “Australia.” Australia, at the time, I don’t know how it is now, but at the time, if you went to Australia with a hundred thousand dollars and a business plan, you could become a permanent resident alien. You can’t vote, but you can buy property, you can open a business, but you can’t get a job. And they didn’t require a fingerprints. So there’s no criminal background check. Now, if you wanted to be a citizen, you have to get an FBI criminal background check. [inaudible 04:07:07]. No, I’m good. So I was like, “Wow, I can go there and start a business,” and I’m going to show up with a couple million.
So what we do is we start refinancing houses, we start pulling out money as quick as we can. I’m asking guys, laborers, guys that I work with, my general contractor, my real estate agent, “Hey man, can you cash this check for six grand?” Nobody says no, everybody, yeah, no problem, no problem. A few guys like, “Yeah, man, if you give you 10%,” yeah, I’ll give you 10%. So that’s happening. We’re pulling out cash. One day Amanda gives Trina a bunch of checks and asks her to cash them. That sparks a conversation like what was happening. She confides in… By this point, by the way, Amanda knows who I am.
So by this point, she’s actually came across the letter that I wrote to my parents when I left Tampa. So she’s figured out who I am. She tells Trina, “His name’s Matt Cox, Dateline’s coming out, we’re leaving. We got to get a bunch of cash.” And Trina goes, “Okay, I’ll cash the checks,” and what she does instead is she calls the Secret Service. They watch my house for three days, I come home one day, they pull the cars up… And they arrest me. So it’s a little bit longer than that, but that’s a short version of me getting arrested. And I’ve probably skipped over a whole [inaudible 04:08:43]-
Lex Fridman
So simple because you’ve gotten in the way with much more complex situations.
So simple because you’ve gotten in the way with much more complex situations.
Matthew Cox
It’s women, man. It’s women. Just joking.
It’s women, man. It’s women. Just joking.
Lex Fridman
They also are the thing that make life worthwhile.
They also are the thing that make life worthwhile.
Matthew Cox
Listen, God bless Trina, she did the right thing. Honestly, based on-
Listen, God bless Trina, she did the right thing. Honestly, based on-
Lex Fridman
There you go, back to the right thing.
There you go, back to the right thing.
Matthew Cox
But based on what she saw, based on what the Secret Service told her and the articles that she’s reading, I’m a bad guy. I’m a bad guy in general, so I don’t deserve loyalty. I don’t think so. I’m ripping people off and she’s thinking that her friend is in danger. The FBI is saying, I have a weapon. He’s dangerous. We believe he’s armed and dangerous. When I was in Florida, I had a concealed weapons permit, but I had gotten rid of both my guns when I was placed on probation. I’ve never had one since. I’ve never touched a gun since. But they used that to say, they said, “Oh, he had a concealed weapon permit. Okay, well then he’s armed and dangerous.” There’s these little things and things they’re telling her, “Read this article. Look, he forces girls to fall in love with them. That’s what he’s going to do to your friend.” So she negotiated also, I think she got 10,000, I think, which is embarrassing. I’m ashamed that she got $10, 000.
But based on what she saw, based on what the Secret Service told her and the articles that she’s reading, I’m a bad guy. I’m a bad guy in general, so I don’t deserve loyalty. I don’t think so. I’m ripping people off and she’s thinking that her friend is in danger. The FBI is saying, I have a weapon. He’s dangerous. We believe he’s armed and dangerous. When I was in Florida, I had a concealed weapons permit, but I had gotten rid of both my guns when I was placed on probation. I’ve never had one since. I’ve never touched a gun since. But they used that to say, they said, “Oh, he had a concealed weapon permit. Okay, well then he’s armed and dangerous.” There’s these little things and things they’re telling her, “Read this article. Look, he forces girls to fall in love with them. That’s what he’s going to do to your friend.” So she negotiated also, I think she got 10,000, I think, which is embarrassing. I’m ashamed that she got $10, 000.
Lex Fridman
And said everything.
And said everything.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, and told them, “This is where he is. His name is Joseph Carter. This is where he is.” They watch it, they grab me, they arrest me. They bring me downtown.
Yeah, and told them, “This is where he is. His name is Joseph Carter. This is where he is.” They watch it, they grab me, they arrest me. They bring me downtown.
Lex Fridman
What did you feel like when you got-
What did you feel like when you got-
Matthew Cox
I didn’t feel good, bro. It was bad. It was a bad day. It was a bad day. First of all, Casino Royale was coming out on Friday. It was the first Daniel Craig as James Bond.
I didn’t feel good, bro. It was bad. It was a bad day. It was a bad day. First of all, Casino Royale was coming out on Friday. It was the first Daniel Craig as James Bond.
Lex Fridman
That was the first, yeah.
That was the first, yeah.
Matthew Cox
And the whole week I’d been telling Amanda, “I’m going to go see Casino Royale.” She go, “Okay, well on Saturday we’re going to go to the festival.” I go, “That’s fine, but on Friday, Casino.” And she’s like, “Right, Casino Royale.” And then she’s like, “Okay, by the way, on Thursday I thought we could go to dinner.” That’s fine, but on Friday, Casino Royale. And when they put the handcuffs on me, you want to know the first thing I thought of? I’m not going to fucking get to see Casino Royale. I’m not going to get to see it, not going to see it. And I saw it about five, six years later, it went on the institution’s movie channel. It was nice. It’s not the same, but, yeah.
And the whole week I’d been telling Amanda, “I’m going to go see Casino Royale.” She go, “Okay, well on Saturday we’re going to go to the festival.” I go, “That’s fine, but on Friday, Casino.” And she’s like, “Right, Casino Royale.” And then she’s like, “Okay, by the way, on Thursday I thought we could go to dinner.” That’s fine, but on Friday, Casino Royale. And when they put the handcuffs on me, you want to know the first thing I thought of? I’m not going to fucking get to see Casino Royale. I’m not going to get to see it, not going to see it. And I saw it about five, six years later, it went on the institution’s movie channel. It was nice. It’s not the same, but, yeah.
So they bring me to Nashville, then they transport me to all over the place. I go on Con Air, they fly me to Oklahoma, they fly me to Atlanta, then I go to Atlanta. I’m placed in the U.S. Marshals, holdover. I get assigned an attorney, go in front of the judge, plead not guilty, meet with my attorney. You always plead not guilty. Whenever people say, “Can you believe that he pled not guilty?” Nobody walks in and pleads guilty. You plead not guilty while you figure out what you’re going to do. So I plead not guilty. There’s no bond. Obviously, they caught me. When they caught me I had four or five passports, so that’s no good. They charged me with bank fraud, conspiracy to commit bank fraud, wire fraud, mail fraud, passport fraud, conspiracy… What was the other? Aggravated identity theft, money laundering, use of a fraudulent passport. And there’s like 30 counts of this, 20 counts of this 20… But none of that matters.
Even if you just dropped all the counts to one count and stacked them, it’s like 150 something years, not that [inaudible 04:12:31].
Lex Fridman
Yeah, so everything they could [inaudible 04:12:33].
Yeah, so everything they could [inaudible 04:12:33].
Matthew Cox
And that’s what they always say, “You’re looking at 150,000,” and your lawyers, they’re like, “You’re not looking at that. You’re looking at 54 years.” What? That’s no matter. That’s no matter. Yeah, so my lawyer comes in and sees me one day, our first meeting, and she says, “I’m Millie Dunn. And she says, “Listen, I’ve looked at everything.” Well, first they say, ” You’re responsible for, it’s like 25 or $26 million in loss.” And I’m like, “That’s not true. That’s not true.” And I said, “Not even potential loss. There’s just no way. There’s no way.” And then she comes back and she says, “Well, they’re saying 19 million.” No, it’s not possible, [inaudible 04:13:25], I didn’t, no. So when the FBI is saying 40 million. They’re saying 11.5 in Tampa, plus 40 million for the mortgage company. So it ends up being, plus what I stole on the run, it ends up being like 55 million, but she gets them to drop the 40. That’s just brokers. That’s this, that’s that. Drop it. And they’re like, “He’s so done. It doesn’t matter. They drop that.”
And that’s what they always say, “You’re looking at 150,000,” and your lawyers, they’re like, “You’re not looking at that. You’re looking at 54 years.” What? That’s no matter. That’s no matter. Yeah, so my lawyer comes in and sees me one day, our first meeting, and she says, “I’m Millie Dunn. And she says, “Listen, I’ve looked at everything.” Well, first they say, ” You’re responsible for, it’s like 25 or $26 million in loss.” And I’m like, “That’s not true. That’s not true.” And I said, “Not even potential loss. There’s just no way. There’s no way.” And then she comes back and she says, “Well, they’re saying 19 million.” No, it’s not possible, [inaudible 04:13:25], I didn’t, no. So when the FBI is saying 40 million. They’re saying 11.5 in Tampa, plus 40 million for the mortgage company. So it ends up being, plus what I stole on the run, it ends up being like 55 million, but she gets them to drop the 40. That’s just brokers. That’s this, that’s that. Drop it. And they’re like, “He’s so done. It doesn’t matter. They drop that.”
So it ends up being 15 million. And then it’s down to what does he owe? They said 9.5, and I got it down to 6 million, which I’m good for. So what ends up happening is they’ve charged me with all these things and she’s like, “Okay, you can plead guilty and you can go with the sentencing guidelines, which is going to be like…” She’s like, “It depends.” She said, “It might be, whatever, 54 years.” She goes, “But if they run them concurrent or consecutive, depending on which one they do,” she said, ” Most likely it ends up being 30 years.” It’s no good. That’s not good. So we go back and forth, back and forth and try and figure out what I’m looking at. Now, as we go through the whole thing, she knocks off a bunch of stuff that they’re saying I did, enhancements. Because you’ll have a base level of, let’s say, a level eight. That should be, maybe a few years. But then they start adding on enhancements.
Did what he do, was it sophisticated? Yes. Okay, three levels for sophisticated means. Were there more than… How many victims were there, more than 50 victims? Yes. Okay, that’s six more levels. Okay, did he change the jurisdiction to evade detection? Yes. That’s four more levels. Okay, did he… They start adding, boom, boom. And when you start adding up all those levels, plus your criminal history, and I have a big criminal history because I was already on federal probation and I committed a new crime on federal probation. So that was another enhancement. And this case, so I’m in a category [inaudible 04:15:45], category two or three.
So they come back and they’re saying, I forget, it’s like 20… Well, they don’t come back right away, but she ends up saying, “You’re probably looking at 14 years.” Okay, that’s reasonable. That’s reasonable. And so when we get the PSI back, we eventually get what’s called a presentence report. They’re saying 26 years. Well, they really said 32 years. And I argued, and we got it down to 26 years and four months. That’s what it is. It’s 316 months. That’s how they do it, in months, because it doesn’t sting that much, I guess, if you say months.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Matthew Cox
So she says to me, Millie sits down with me and she says, “Listen, you got to cooperate.” And I was like, “Okay.” And she said, “Because you’re guilty. You’re extremely guilty.” She’s like, “You can’t go to trial,” and she said, “So you need to cooperate.” I was like, “Well, what do I get if I cooperate?” And she’s, “The way it works is you cooperate and you hope for the best.” And I was like, “Are you serious?” She goes, “You tell them everything and you hope for the best.” And she’s like, “Part of the problem is,” she said, “Everybody in Tampa’s cooperated. Rebecca has cooperated. Everyone across the board has cooperated.” She goes, “There’s nobody that hasn’t cooperated.”
So she says to me, Millie sits down with me and she says, “Listen, you got to cooperate.” And I was like, “Okay.” And she said, “Because you’re guilty. You’re extremely guilty.” She’s like, “You can’t go to trial,” and she said, “So you need to cooperate.” I was like, “Well, what do I get if I cooperate?” And she’s, “The way it works is you cooperate and you hope for the best.” And I was like, “Are you serious?” She goes, “You tell them everything and you hope for the best.” And she’s like, “Part of the problem is,” she said, “Everybody in Tampa’s cooperated. Rebecca has cooperated. Everyone across the board has cooperated.” She goes, “There’s nobody that hasn’t cooperated.”
Lex Fridman
By the way, when you say cooperate, you mean they told, aka snitched.
By the way, when you say cooperate, you mean they told, aka snitched.
Matthew Cox
Yeah. Right. They came in, they sat down with their lawyer and they said, “This is what he did. He did this, he did that.” They showed them documents, “Yes, yes, yes. That’s my signature. I didn’t know what that was.” Everything was my fault. They didn’t do anything. It was all me. So they’ve all cooperated and they haven’t been charged. They’ve been indicted. They’re all named as unnamed co-conspirators on my indictment. So I’ve got 12 people, [inaudible 04:17:40] there’s probably 20 people that are involved, but there’s 12 of them that are… So I’ve got all these names, K.B., D.L., C.Y. It’s like, I know who that is. I know who D.W., that’s Dave Walker. I know who these people are. And so there’s just a list of them, there’s like 12 of them plus me. Some of them walked in and said, “I’m guilty. I just want to plead guilty.” The girl, Allison, she walked in, said, “I’m tired of waiting for you to come get me.” Walked in with her lawyer and said, “I just want to plead guilty.” And they sentenced her, and she went to jail. She got 36 months or 30 months. She called the prison that… She went to the low security, it was a female prison at the time, female camp. Called the camp and asked if she could come by for a tour before she went. And they went, “Excuse me?” She said, “Well, I’m going to be there for about two years, so I’d like to come in. Is there a tour I can take? Because I like to know where I’m going and what it’s going to be like, how I should prepare.” And they just started laughing. They said, “There’s no tour, sweetie. We’ll give you the tour when you get here.” You got to love that, she-
Yeah. Right. They came in, they sat down with their lawyer and they said, “This is what he did. He did this, he did that.” They showed them documents, “Yes, yes, yes. That’s my signature. I didn’t know what that was.” Everything was my fault. They didn’t do anything. It was all me. So they’ve all cooperated and they haven’t been charged. They’ve been indicted. They’re all named as unnamed co-conspirators on my indictment. So I’ve got 12 people, [inaudible 04:17:40] there’s probably 20 people that are involved, but there’s 12 of them that are… So I’ve got all these names, K.B., D.L., C.Y. It’s like, I know who that is. I know who D.W., that’s Dave Walker. I know who these people are. And so there’s just a list of them, there’s like 12 of them plus me. Some of them walked in and said, “I’m guilty. I just want to plead guilty.” The girl, Allison, she walked in, said, “I’m tired of waiting for you to come get me.” Walked in with her lawyer and said, “I just want to plead guilty.” And they sentenced her, and she went to jail. She got 36 months or 30 months. She called the prison that… She went to the low security, it was a female prison at the time, female camp. Called the camp and asked if she could come by for a tour before she went. And they went, “Excuse me?” She said, “Well, I’m going to be there for about two years, so I’d like to come in. Is there a tour I can take? Because I like to know where I’m going and what it’s going to be like, how I should prepare.” And they just started laughing. They said, “There’s no tour, sweetie. We’ll give you the tour when you get here.” You got to love that, she-
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I mean, [inaudible 04:19:01]-
Yeah. I mean, [inaudible 04:19:01]-
Matthew Cox
I thought I wasn’t prepared. There’s no tour. So Becky got 70 months, but when I got caught and when I was sentenced, they reduced it to 30 or no, to 40 months. They reduced [inaudible 04:19:16]-
I thought I wasn’t prepared. There’s no tour. So Becky got 70 months, but when I got caught and when I was sentenced, they reduced it to 30 or no, to 40 months. They reduced [inaudible 04:19:16]-
Lex Fridman
Because she “cooperated.”
Because she “cooperated.”
Matthew Cox
Cooperated.
Cooperated.
Lex Fridman
That term. Right.
That term. Right.
Matthew Cox
Do you want to say snitch or ratted?
Do you want to say snitch or ratted?
Lex Fridman
Well, there must be… Snitch is too harsh of a word, but yeah, the ratted. You’re saying, I don’t know.
Well, there must be… Snitch is too harsh of a word, but yeah, the ratted. You’re saying, I don’t know.
Matthew Cox
Well, we can get there. We’ll get there.
Well, we can get there. We’ll get there.
Snitching
Lex Fridman
All right. All right. So where did the sentencing end up?
All right. All right. So where did the sentencing end up?
Matthew Cox
So I should say first on the cooperation subject. My lawyer wanted me to cooperate, and by this point I realized you don’t have a choice. No, that’s not true. I could have been a gangster.
So I should say first on the cooperation subject. My lawyer wanted me to cooperate, and by this point I realized you don’t have a choice. No, that’s not true. I could have been a gangster.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Matthew Cox
[inaudible 04:19:58]-
[inaudible 04:19:58]-
Lex Fridman
What does it mean to be a gangster in this case?
What does it mean to be a gangster in this case?
Matthew Cox
Like a standup guy. I could have said, “I’ll just take it. Give me 54 years. Go fuck yourself. I’m not going to snitch on nobody.” And I know you look at me and you think, “Tough guy.” I’m not a tough guy at all. I’m not doing 50-some-odd years. I’m not doing it. I don’t want to do 30 years. I was hoping for, I knew it wasn’t possible, but I would’ve satisfied for another slap on the hand like I got the first time. I really thought I deserved, honestly, when my lawyer asked me, “What do you really think you deserve?” And I thought, “I deserve 10 years. I deserve 10 years.” So she said, “Look, they want to talk to you.” So the FBI… Well, first the Secret Service flies in. They come in and they interview me.
Like a standup guy. I could have said, “I’ll just take it. Give me 54 years. Go fuck yourself. I’m not going to snitch on nobody.” And I know you look at me and you think, “Tough guy.” I’m not a tough guy at all. I’m not doing 50-some-odd years. I’m not doing it. I don’t want to do 30 years. I was hoping for, I knew it wasn’t possible, but I would’ve satisfied for another slap on the hand like I got the first time. I really thought I deserved, honestly, when my lawyer asked me, “What do you really think you deserve?” And I thought, “I deserve 10 years. I deserve 10 years.” So she said, “Look, they want to talk to you.” So the FBI… Well, first the Secret Service flies in. They come in and they interview me.
Lex Fridman
Who’s more terrifying, FBI, Secret Service?
Who’s more terrifying, FBI, Secret Service?
Matthew Cox
The Secret Service was so overwhelmingly professional. The FBI, and really only one of the FBI agents that interviewed me, I don’t know how he’s an agent. I don’t know. He was just ineffective, incompetent.
The Secret Service was so overwhelmingly professional. The FBI, and really only one of the FBI agents that interviewed me, I don’t know how he’s an agent. I don’t know. He was just ineffective, incompetent.
Lex Fridman
Oh. Oh, so it’s a competence issue.
Oh. Oh, so it’s a competence issue.
Matthew Cox
The other one was Candace.
The other one was Candace.
Lex Fridman
Oh, you met her eventually.
Oh, you met her eventually.
Matthew Cox
Of course I did. Of course. She’s-
Of course I did. Of course. She’s-
Lex Fridman
What was her [inaudible 04:21:25].
What was her [inaudible 04:21:25].
Matthew Cox
… 5’11”, wearing 3″ heels. She’s a giant and in impeccable shape, attractive. One of the angriest human beings I’ve ever met. And every FBI agent that I’ve met since then that knows her, and I mention, they all say, “Oh, what’d you think of her?” And I’m like, “What? Why?”
… 5’11”, wearing 3″ heels. She’s a giant and in impeccable shape, attractive. One of the angriest human beings I’ve ever met. And every FBI agent that I’ve met since then that knows her, and I mention, they all say, “Oh, what’d you think of her?” And I’m like, “What? Why?”
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 04:21:45].
[inaudible 04:21:45].
Matthew Cox
They go… And I was like, “Kind of aggressive.” They go, “Yeah, yeah, yeah. She’s a bulldog.” All of them are like, “Yeah, yeah, she’s something else.”
They go… And I was like, “Kind of aggressive.” They go, “Yeah, yeah, yeah. She’s a bulldog.” All of them are like, “Yeah, yeah, she’s something else.”
Lex Fridman
Secret services is a little bit more professional [inaudible 04:21:57]-
Secret services is a little bit more professional [inaudible 04:21:57]-
Matthew Cox
[inaudible 04:21:57], very, it’s their job. It’s like, hey, this is just my job. They’re polite, professional. That’s it. So this is my nine-to-five. But they fly in and they meet with me for three, four days. One of the funny things is that when I first sat down with him, one guy’s name was Dan Brosanskowski or something. So he sits down and he says, “Look, before we get started, we need to talk about something.” And I said, “What?” He said, “We know you’ve hidden money, and we…” And I was like, “What?” And he goes, “We know you’ve got money hidden.” I said, “I don’t have any money hidden. What are you talking about?” And my lawyer’s like, “Do we need to talk?” I’m like, “No, no, no, no. I don’t have nothing. I gave you everything. I gave you all the accounts. You got everything.” And he’s like, “You’re looking at an obstruction charge at this point.” I was like, “I don’t have anything.” And he says, “We know you have money. We know you have money in different identity’s names.” And I go, “What are you talking about?” And he pulls out a bank statement and he slaps it on the counter. And he goes, “You’ve got money in Southern Exchange Bank. You’ve got $190,000 in Southern Exchange Bank.” And I look at it and I went…
[inaudible 04:21:57], very, it’s their job. It’s like, hey, this is just my job. They’re polite, professional. That’s it. So this is my nine-to-five. But they fly in and they meet with me for three, four days. One of the funny things is that when I first sat down with him, one guy’s name was Dan Brosanskowski or something. So he sits down and he says, “Look, before we get started, we need to talk about something.” And I said, “What?” He said, “We know you’ve hidden money, and we…” And I was like, “What?” And he goes, “We know you’ve got money hidden.” I said, “I don’t have any money hidden. What are you talking about?” And my lawyer’s like, “Do we need to talk?” I’m like, “No, no, no, no. I don’t have nothing. I gave you everything. I gave you all the accounts. You got everything.” And he’s like, “You’re looking at an obstruction charge at this point.” I was like, “I don’t have anything.” And he says, “We know you have money. We know you have money in different identity’s names.” And I go, “What are you talking about?” And he pulls out a bank statement and he slaps it on the counter. And he goes, “You’ve got money in Southern Exchange Bank. You’ve got $190,000 in Southern Exchange Bank.” And I look at it and I went…
It was in the name Walter Holcomb, and I went, “Did you call the bank?” He says, “Yeah, we called the bank.” I went, “Okay. Did anybody call you back?” And he said, “Well, no, we’ve left several messages.” I said, “Did you go to [inaudible 04:23:33] bank website?” He goes, “Yeah, I went to the website.” I said, “What’d you think?” And he went, “What do you mean? It was bank website.” I said, “Yeah, but it was professional, right? It was a professional website.” And he goes, “It’s a bank website.” And I go, “Yeah, but it was well done.” And he goes, “Oh god.” And I go, “Yeah, convincing.”
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 04:23:52].
[inaudible 04:23:52].
Matthew Cox
And I go, “It’s all an illusion,” and I said, “The bank doesn’t exist. It’s a fake bank. I made the bank. Made it when I was in… Not even in Tampa, I think I’d gotten to Nashville when I made it.
And I go, “It’s all an illusion,” and I said, “The bank doesn’t exist. It’s a fake bank. I made the bank. Made it when I was in… Not even in Tampa, I think I’d gotten to Nashville when I made it.
Matthew Cox
… not even in Tampa. I think I got into Nashville when I made it and I was like, “Yeah, it’s an… The bank statements…” He’s like, “They’re the color of bank statements.” I’m like, “Yeah, well no shit.” I said, “As a matter of fact,” I said, “Who did you leave a… I haven’t paid for this service in months.” And he turned around and he called it and it went (singing) it was disconnected. And I was like, “How do you not know that’s a bank?” Well, it turns out there was a Southern Exchange Bank and I’d used their bank routing number. I mean, I always thought that was funny, that it was like…
… not even in Tampa. I think I got into Nashville when I made it and I was like, “Yeah, it’s an… The bank statements…” He’s like, “They’re the color of bank statements.” I’m like, “Yeah, well no shit.” I said, “As a matter of fact,” I said, “Who did you leave a… I haven’t paid for this service in months.” And he turned around and he called it and it went (singing) it was disconnected. And I was like, “How do you not know that’s a bank?” Well, it turns out there was a Southern Exchange Bank and I’d used their bank routing number. I mean, I always thought that was funny, that it was like…
Well, I remember really for a split second there I was really embarrassed that they caught me. I was like, “Can’t believe this. You’re the Secret Service.” Anyway, I talked to them. As far as the Secret Service is concerned, there’s just not much I can tell them. It was me, Becky’s already told them everything. Amanda’s already told them everything. It’s not hard to track. When they raided my house, they’ve got boxes and boxes, so it’s laid out. It took forever. I still went through everything. I explained how I got the driver’s licenses, how I made the bank statements, how I made the birth certificates, the whole social engineering of figuring out what these little loopholes are. It’s like seven days total with these guys.
Lex Fridman
You mean like question?
You mean like question?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, it was like they question me for all day and then they’d take me back to the Marshals holdover, and then the next morning I wake up and they chain me up again and bring me back.
Yeah, it was like they question me for all day and then they’d take me back to the Marshals holdover, and then the next morning I wake up and they chain me up again and bring me back.
Lex Fridman
What’s that like? What’s that process of questioning like? I mean, you’re somebody who is exceptionally good at conversation, charismatic was part of the games you played. Are they good at conversation?
What’s that like? What’s that process of questioning like? I mean, you’re somebody who is exceptionally good at conversation, charismatic was part of the games you played. Are they good at conversation?
Matthew Cox
I mean, the problem is they’re not there to shoot the shit. You see what I’m saying? They have an agenda.
I mean, the problem is they’re not there to shoot the shit. You see what I’m saying? They have an agenda.
Lex Fridman
But they have to use their words to get information out of you. Aren’t they trying to manipulate you?
But they have to use their words to get information out of you. Aren’t they trying to manipulate you?
Matthew Cox
[inaudible 04:26:03], I’m not holding anything back.
[inaudible 04:26:03], I’m not holding anything back.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Matthew Cox
It’s not like I’m sparing Jim. Trust me, Jim’s got to go. I mean, you’re looking at 20 some odd years, but Jim can do five. Bill can do some. Tom can do six. I don’t even like Jerry. Jerry can do 20. So I’m ready to cut everybody’s throat.
It’s not like I’m sparing Jim. Trust me, Jim’s got to go. I mean, you’re looking at 20 some odd years, but Jim can do five. Bill can do some. Tom can do six. I don’t even like Jerry. Jerry can do 20. So I’m ready to cut everybody’s throat.
Lex Fridman
But you not guaranteed that you’re getting anything for that.
But you not guaranteed that you’re getting anything for that.
Matthew Cox
Right. In all my time, I’ve seen one time where an inmate got a guarantee to have his sentence reduced, and it was signed by the head of the FBI. Was Robert Mueller gave it to him, to have a conversation with him. That’s the only time I’ve ever seen that document.
Right. In all my time, I’ve seen one time where an inmate got a guarantee to have his sentence reduced, and it was signed by the head of the FBI. Was Robert Mueller gave it to him, to have a conversation with him. That’s the only time I’ve ever seen that document.
Lex Fridman
Okay, so a lot of days with both the Secret Service and the FBI.
Okay, so a lot of days with both the Secret Service and the FBI.
Matthew Cox
So FBI, Candice was irritated, didn’t like me. And I remember when she took the cuffs off, I was rubbing my wrist. She goes, “Your wrists hurt?” And I go, “Yeah.” And she goes, “Get used to it.” I mean, she was just an asshole, just all around. Not that she didn’t have a right to be, but everybody else was professional.
So FBI, Candice was irritated, didn’t like me. And I remember when she took the cuffs off, I was rubbing my wrist. She goes, “Your wrists hurt?” And I go, “Yeah.” And she goes, “Get used to it.” I mean, she was just an asshole, just all around. Not that she didn’t have a right to be, but everybody else was professional.
Lex Fridman
Oh, Candice.
Oh, Candice.
Matthew Cox
We talked for three or four days with the FBI and they asked a ton of questions. They brought documents. So it’s like, “Hey, who signed this?” It’s like, “Oh, that’s not my signature. That’s so-and-so’s signature,” or, “I signed that. I signed that. I signed that. That’s so-and-so.” “Where’d this check go? Who is this?” “Oh, that’s so-and-so.” You’re looking over everything. One of the things they wanted to know about was, which I never talked about because it seemed so minor, is I bribed the politician. We got him elected to city council so he could vote to get the lots. We bought a hundred vacant lots in Ybor City. They were all single family, we wanted them zoned multifamily. And so we bribed him and got him elected all-
We talked for three or four days with the FBI and they asked a ton of questions. They brought documents. So it’s like, “Hey, who signed this?” It’s like, “Oh, that’s not my signature. That’s so-and-so’s signature,” or, “I signed that. I signed that. I signed that. That’s so-and-so.” “Where’d this check go? Who is this?” “Oh, that’s so-and-so.” You’re looking over everything. One of the things they wanted to know about was, which I never talked about because it seemed so minor, is I bribed the politician. We got him elected to city council so he could vote to get the lots. We bought a hundred vacant lots in Ybor City. They were all single family, we wanted them zoned multifamily. And so we bribed him and got him elected all-
Lex Fridman
That doesn’t seem minor.
That doesn’t seem minor.
Matthew Cox
It’s not as sexy as the rest of the stuff.
It’s not as sexy as the rest of the stuff.
Lex Fridman
That’s pretty… I mean, [inaudible 04:28:12].
That’s pretty… I mean, [inaudible 04:28:12].
Matthew Cox
That’s a whole ‘nother thing.
That’s a whole ‘nother thing.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah, all right.
Yeah, yeah, all right.
Matthew Cox
What happened is when they got all of the bank accounts, they see all these checks going to Kevin White, and so they’re like, “Why did James Red donate $500 to Kevin White? Why did Brandon Green donate? Why did Alan Duncan donate? Why did…” So I had to explain to them, “Oh yeah, well, we wanted him to be city councilman, so we gave him a bunch of money so he could run the ad, so he could get elected, so he could then get all of our stuff.” But because he never did, I took off on the run before he was able to do that, and then not too, too long after that, he ended up… About five, six years later, he ended up getting indicted for bribery, but not mine, on somebody else’s case.
What happened is when they got all of the bank accounts, they see all these checks going to Kevin White, and so they’re like, “Why did James Red donate $500 to Kevin White? Why did Brandon Green donate? Why did Alan Duncan donate? Why did…” So I had to explain to them, “Oh yeah, well, we wanted him to be city councilman, so we gave him a bunch of money so he could run the ad, so he could get elected, so he could then get all of our stuff.” But because he never did, I took off on the run before he was able to do that, and then not too, too long after that, he ended up… About five, six years later, he ended up getting indicted for bribery, but not mine, on somebody else’s case.
Lex Fridman
Can I take a small tangent here and ask how many politicians do you think commit crimes? Are a little bit or a lot criminals?
Can I take a small tangent here and ask how many politicians do you think commit crimes? Are a little bit or a lot criminals?
Matthew Cox
I mean, I think there’s some ways that are… They’re seemingly legal.
I mean, I think there’s some ways that are… They’re seemingly legal.
Lex Fridman
The aforementioned gray area.
The aforementioned gray area.
Matthew Cox
Well, that’s not gray. This guy was, at one point I couldn’t find anybody to write $500 checks anymore so I just gave him cash. I’m just handing him seven, $8,000, $10,000 in cash. But I think most of them have legal ways to make ungodly amounts of money for influence. But is it legal? No, they’re politicians. They’ve made it so that it’s not illegal. If you really sat down and explained it to someone, the average person would say, “That’s not right.” Oh, no, no, that’s legal.
Well, that’s not gray. This guy was, at one point I couldn’t find anybody to write $500 checks anymore so I just gave him cash. I’m just handing him seven, $8,000, $10,000 in cash. But I think most of them have legal ways to make ungodly amounts of money for influence. But is it legal? No, they’re politicians. They’ve made it so that it’s not illegal. If you really sat down and explained it to someone, the average person would say, “That’s not right.” Oh, no, no, that’s legal.
Lex Fridman
Okay. So at the end of these few days, what was the sentencing like?
Okay. So at the end of these few days, what was the sentencing like?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, I go to sentencing. I get my PSI back and it’s 32 years to life. So we argue about it with the prosecutor just before sentencing, and they get it down to 26 years, four months. Then Millie says, “Listen, don’t worry,” because I’m trying to backpedal at this point. I’m like, “I might as well go to trial. If I lost at trial I couldn’t get more than 30.” Well, more than 32 years. Because you can’t get life. 32 was the max. It’s just a mistake he said 32 years to life, you can’t get life. So it was like, the most I can get is 32 years. So I was like, “I’ll go to trial. Might as well go to trial and see if I can get them to reduce some of these enhancements.”
Yeah, I go to sentencing. I get my PSI back and it’s 32 years to life. So we argue about it with the prosecutor just before sentencing, and they get it down to 26 years, four months. Then Millie says, “Listen, don’t worry,” because I’m trying to backpedal at this point. I’m like, “I might as well go to trial. If I lost at trial I couldn’t get more than 30.” Well, more than 32 years. Because you can’t get life. 32 was the max. It’s just a mistake he said 32 years to life, you can’t get life. So it was like, the most I can get is 32 years. So I was like, “I’ll go to trial. Might as well go to trial and see if I can get them to reduce some of these enhancements.”
She insists that she can get the enhancements knocked down and if you actually read the enhancements, some of the enhancements, they didn’t apply to me. So she goes, and I believed her, and I think she made a valid argument. We go to sentencing. My mom’s there, she’s crying. My dad’s there, he’s looking at me like he’s disgusted. And crowd, there’s a whole bunch of reporters, the whole place is packed. And I plead guilty. Millie gets up, my lawyer gets up and she argues these enhancements. And every single time the judge is like, ” I disagree. Overruled.” And it’s like, boom, five more years. Bam, six more years. Bam. Because if she had won the enhancement she argued I would’ve got 14 years.
Now, keep in mind too, a month or two prior to this, the US attorney had called Millie and said, “Look, Dateline…” Dateline had already come out, by the way. Remember I was worried about Dateline coming out? Well, it had come out, but they wanted to do a follow-up because it came out like a month or two after I got arrested. And they were saying, “Hey, we want to recut it with interviews with him.” Well, Gail McKenzie, that’s the US attorney, she wants me to do that. And she says, “I’ll consider that substantial assistance.”
Now, when you cooperate with the government, they consider it substantial assistance, that’s what they call it. So I cooperate with you, it’s substantial assistance. She says, “If he’s interviewed by Dateline, we’ll consider it substantial assistance.” And Millie says, “You have to do it.”
Lex Fridman
By the way, what’s the idea behind that? That you serve as a warning for others or something like that?
By the way, what’s the idea behind that? That you serve as a warning for others or something like that?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, exactly. Because you become a cautionary tale, like, “Don’t let this happen to you.” So I go and I’m interviewed by Dateline, Keith Morris, or whatever his name is, that guy, “Mr. Cox was…” that guy. So he comes and he interviews me. Becky’s interviewed, I’m interviewed, Amanda’s interviewed, Allison is interviewed, everybody. The Secret Service agent, I think is interviewed, everybody. Prosecutor’s interviewed. It’s funny, at the time when I watched it, I was like, “That’s not true, and that’s not true, and that, and…” And honestly, it’s like 99% true. Looking back on it, I’m like, ” My Audi TT wasn’t blue, it was silver.” It’s just stupid.
Yeah, exactly. Because you become a cautionary tale, like, “Don’t let this happen to you.” So I go and I’m interviewed by Dateline, Keith Morris, or whatever his name is, that guy, “Mr. Cox was…” that guy. So he comes and he interviews me. Becky’s interviewed, I’m interviewed, Amanda’s interviewed, Allison is interviewed, everybody. The Secret Service agent, I think is interviewed, everybody. Prosecutor’s interviewed. It’s funny, at the time when I watched it, I was like, “That’s not true, and that’s not true, and that, and…” And honestly, it’s like 99% true. Looking back on it, I’m like, ” My Audi TT wasn’t blue, it was silver.” It’s just stupid.
But anyway, so I’m interviewed by them and they recut it and they air the video. So you said this was substantial assistance. And then the other thing is I was interviewed by the FBI and the Secret Service. Now my lawyer calls the prosecutor the night before sentencing and says, “Look, he was interviewed by Dateline and he was interviewed by the Secret Service and the FBI. And if you do that, you said you’d reduce his sentence, you’d consider it substantial assistance, and you would reduce his sentence. What are you going to ask for his sentence to be tomorrow at sentencing?” And she said, “We did consider it substantial assistance and it’s just not enough.” “What do you mean?” “Nobody was arrested.” “Yes, but what about Dateline?” “Millie, I don’t know what to tell you. It just wasn’t enough.”
Lex Fridman
We considered it?
We considered it?
Matthew Cox
“We considered it. We will consider it.” And they did consider it.
“We considered it. We will consider it.” And they did consider it.
Lex Fridman
Oh, man.
Oh, man.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, the meaning of words is so important.
Yeah, the meaning of words is so important.
Lex Fridman
I’m going to use that at some point.
I’m going to use that at some point.
Matthew Cox
I’ll consider it.
I’ll consider it.
Lex Fridman
I will consider it. I’ll consider it. I considered it…
I will consider it. I’ll consider it. I considered it…
Matthew Cox
It’s not.
It’s not.
Lex Fridman
… and still feel the same.
… and still feel the same.
Matthew Cox
So she calls me, I’m crushed. And she’s like, “But look, they’re still investigating. They’re going to make these arrests.” And so when you get a sentence reduction at sentencing, it’s called a 5K1. When you get a sentence reduction after sentencing, it’s called a Rule 35. So she said, “We’ll file a Rule 35 as soon as the arrests are made.” Okay, so I go to sentencing and Millie says, “You’re going to get 14 years. I’m going to argue these enhancements.” She argues the enhancements. She loses the enhancements.
So she calls me, I’m crushed. And she’s like, “But look, they’re still investigating. They’re going to make these arrests.” And so when you get a sentence reduction at sentencing, it’s called a 5K1. When you get a sentence reduction after sentencing, it’s called a Rule 35. So she said, “We’ll file a Rule 35 as soon as the arrests are made.” Okay, so I go to sentencing and Millie says, “You’re going to get 14 years. I’m going to argue these enhancements.” She argues the enhancements. She loses the enhancements.
Not that she’s not an amazing attorney. She’s an amazing attorney. The judge wanted to hammer me. He hammered me. Millie was a great attorney. She was always polite to me. And by the way, to this day, will answer my phone call. Most public defenders, you call them now, you call them after your sentence, they don’t answer your call. Great person.
Lex Fridman
Thank you, Millie.
Thank you, Millie.
Matthew Cox
I didn’t give her anything to work with. It’s like I’m a little overwhelmingly guilty. It’s like there’s no defense. So I end up getting sentenced 26 years.
I didn’t give her anything to work with. It’s like I’m a little overwhelmingly guilty. It’s like there’s no defense. So I end up getting sentenced 26 years.
Prison
Lex Fridman
That’s a lot of years.
That’s a lot of years.
Matthew Cox
I would like to tell you that when they gave me the time, that I was stoic and I stood there and I took it in. But the truth is, I cried like a baby, like a small child. You’ve never seen anyone cry like this in your life. I was just, How did I get 26? What did I do to get 26 years like murderers, rapists? I’ve met guys that kidnapped guys that got 15.
I would like to tell you that when they gave me the time, that I was stoic and I stood there and I took it in. But the truth is, I cried like a baby, like a small child. You’ve never seen anyone cry like this in your life. I was just, How did I get 26? What did I do to get 26 years like murderers, rapists? I’ve met guys that kidnapped guys that got 15.
Lex Fridman
26.
26.
Matthew Cox
So yeah, I…
So yeah, I…
Lex Fridman
Were you scared?
Were you scared?
Matthew Cox
I mean, does a pope wear a funny hat? Of course I was scared, I was terrified. But I kept telling myself, “They’re going to reduce the sentence. They’ll reduce it, they’ll reduce it, they’ll reduce it. Okay, okay. It’s going to be okay. It’s going to be okay.” But it wasn’t okay. I got moved to Coleman, the Coleman Complex in Coleman, Florida, the Federal Correctional Coleman Complex in Coleman, Florida, which is the largest federal complex in the nation.
I mean, does a pope wear a funny hat? Of course I was scared, I was terrified. But I kept telling myself, “They’re going to reduce the sentence. They’ll reduce it, they’ll reduce it, they’ll reduce it. Okay, okay. It’s going to be okay. It’s going to be okay.” But it wasn’t okay. I got moved to Coleman, the Coleman Complex in Coleman, Florida, the Federal Correctional Coleman Complex in Coleman, Florida, which is the largest federal complex in the nation.
At that time, there was a camp, which was a female camp. There was a low security prison for men, a medium security prison, and two penitentiaries. So I get moved to the medium. Now I’m moved to the medium, not because… That’s where real criminals go, right? I’m a soft, white boy. I’m no danger to anybody. I hurt someone’s feelings once, but other than that, I’m not going to be a problem. But if you have more than 20 years to serve, you have to go to a medium. So even though my security level said this guy should be in a camp, I had 20 years. You can’t go to a camp until you have less than 10.
So as soon as I am given 26 years… They knock off three, but you still have three years to get below 20, so they go to the medium. So I go to the medium and there are guys getting stabbed. The very first day, people are being stabbed. I get locked into… Go to my cell, meet my cellie. They scream lockdown. Somebody got stabbed in the rec yard. I remember I asked my cellie, which I’d met 20 minutes earlier, He’s like, “Hey, we’ve got to get in the cell.” I was like, “What’s going on?” “Somebody got stabbed in the yard.” And I go, “Somebody just got killed.” And he goes, “Nah, they just stabbed him up a little bit.” And I thought, “Oh my God, you’re in a place where they say stabbed him up a little bit. You’re not prepared for this, bro. You got to get out of here.” Anyway, I go to the medium. I’m there.
Lex Fridman
What was the first day and night?
What was the first day and night?
Matthew Cox
Remember, I already had been locked up in the county. They’re county jails where they call them, they’re US Marshal, they’re holdovers, but they’re really county jails. They just keep you with the federal guys. So I’m not mixed in with hobos and people like that. I’m mixed in with the federal people.
Remember, I already had been locked up in the county. They’re county jails where they call them, they’re US Marshal, they’re holdovers, but they’re really county jails. They just keep you with the federal guys. So I’m not mixed in with hobos and people like that. I’m mixed in with the federal people.
Lex Fridman
It’s already felt like a prison?
It’s already felt like a prison?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, it’s a prison. I mean, it’s jail, but it’s a prison. Unless you’ve been locked up, you don’t really know the difference. So it’s a jail. Jails suck. Jails are much worse. The whole time I was locked up in the jails, waiting to be sentenced. Guys were like, “I just want to get sentenced and go to prison, bro.” And I was like, “Why does everybody keep saying that? Prison’s worse than this. I saw Shawshank. It’s horrible.” And they’re like, “Bro, prison? Listen, prison I can walk the rec yard. I could go to the movie room, watch movies. Listen, right after count…” There’s a four o’clock count. They count everybody at 4:00.
Yeah, it’s a prison. I mean, it’s jail, but it’s a prison. Unless you’ve been locked up, you don’t really know the difference. So it’s a jail. Jails suck. Jails are much worse. The whole time I was locked up in the jails, waiting to be sentenced. Guys were like, “I just want to get sentenced and go to prison, bro.” And I was like, “Why does everybody keep saying that? Prison’s worse than this. I saw Shawshank. It’s horrible.” And they’re like, “Bro, prison? Listen, prison I can walk the rec yard. I could go to the movie room, watch movies. Listen, right after count…” There’s a four o’clock count. They count everybody at 4:00.
So they are like, “Right after count, I’m going to go to commissary. Somebody’s going to buy me an ice cream. I’m going to be eating an ice cream, walking on the rec yard the first day.” And it’s been months and months and months that I’ve been locked up in this county jail, and I’m thinking, “I want to go to prison. That sounds nice. I’d like an ice cream.”
Lex Fridman
But there was a stabbing on the first day, so…
But there was a stabbing on the first day, so…
Matthew Cox
Yeah. Well, everybody kept telling me I was going to go to a camp. You’re going to go to a camp, you’re going to go to a low.
Yeah. Well, everybody kept telling me I was going to go to a camp. You’re going to go to a camp, you’re going to go to a low.
Lex Fridman
I see.
I see.
Matthew Cox
And honestly, very quickly, I was walking on the rec yard, I was… So I was at the medium. I got there. It’s a real prison with the doors, bam. And they can open the little tray thing and feed you out of the tray, and there’s a stainless steel toilet and sink. And they have that in the county too, but it’s exactly what you think of prison as being.
And honestly, very quickly, I was walking on the rec yard, I was… So I was at the medium. I got there. It’s a real prison with the doors, bam. And they can open the little tray thing and feed you out of the tray, and there’s a stainless steel toilet and sink. And they have that in the county too, but it’s exactly what you think of prison as being.
Lex Fridman
But it feels like a fundamentally different experience when it’s 26 years and the door locks, and…
But it feels like a fundamentally different experience when it’s 26 years and the door locks, and…
Matthew Cox
Yeah. So yeah, I have a cellie, but I’m also, is they sent me to a prison where tons of guys have 30, 40, 50 years, life sentences. There’s gangsters there, there’s murderers, there’s serial killers, there’s really bad guys. There’s guys that are trying to take advantage of guys, right?
Yeah. So yeah, I have a cellie, but I’m also, is they sent me to a prison where tons of guys have 30, 40, 50 years, life sentences. There’s gangsters there, there’s murderers, there’s serial killers, there’s really bad guys. There’s guys that are trying to take advantage of guys, right?
Lex Fridman
You mean like sexually?
You mean like sexually?
Matthew Cox
Yeah. But by the time I got there, I’d heard all the… How you can get yourself in trouble. Don’t go in somebody else’s cell. You don’t know the guy? You’re not 100% sure? Do not go in his cell. Don’t even go near a cell. Don’t go into places where people can close a door behind you or they can trap you in an area. There’s all these things that I’ve been told not to do.
Yeah. But by the time I got there, I’d heard all the… How you can get yourself in trouble. Don’t go in somebody else’s cell. You don’t know the guy? You’re not 100% sure? Do not go in his cell. Don’t even go near a cell. Don’t go into places where people can close a door behind you or they can trap you in an area. There’s all these things that I’ve been told not to do.
Lex Fridman
Again, for sexual reasons.
Again, for sexual reasons.
Matthew Cox
Right, because I’m a small guy in prison.
Right, because I’m a small guy in prison.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, attractive white dude.
Yeah, attractive white dude.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, it’s a problem. It’s a problem. This, it’s bad. It’s all bad.
Yeah, it’s a problem. It’s a problem. This, it’s bad. It’s all bad.
Lex Fridman
Well, it’s good in the outside world, but bad in prison.
Well, it’s good in the outside world, but bad in prison.
Matthew Cox
Yeah. My fear was they’re going to make me shave my head to make sure that the mop wig fits correctly. But there’s certain things that… I always hate to say this, and this is the simplest way to say it, is that if you get stabbed in prison, you had it coming. You did something. They’re not running around just stabbing people, you did something. And the things that get you hurt is you argue over the TV, what channel you want to watch. You got 50, 80 guys watching one TV, don’t argue about it. It’s not worth it.
Yeah. My fear was they’re going to make me shave my head to make sure that the mop wig fits correctly. But there’s certain things that… I always hate to say this, and this is the simplest way to say it, is that if you get stabbed in prison, you had it coming. You did something. They’re not running around just stabbing people, you did something. And the things that get you hurt is you argue over the TV, what channel you want to watch. You got 50, 80 guys watching one TV, don’t argue about it. It’s not worth it.
Borrowing things and not returning them, that’s a problem. Running up debts, that’s a big problem. Gambling, gossiping, those are the problems. Those things get you hurt. Not being polite, be respectful. I’m super respectful. So I was respectful. Very quickly when I got to Coleman… There are continuing education courses. One of the courses is residential real estate. The guy that was running the residential real estate didn’t want to do it anymore because he was doing legal work and it just was taking too much time. So he came to me and said, “Listen, you just got here. You got a real estate background like nobody else does. Can you take over this class?” And I was like, “Sure.”
So I looked at his curriculum, I rewrote it a little bit, and I started teaching a residential real estate class. And at one point I was teaching two classes a semester or a quarter. And these guys loved it. They all think they’re going to get out and flip houses. So I started from the fundamentals. I talk about credit, how to borrow, hard money lenders, different types of… Everything.
It’s the first time in my life, this was funny. Not that I think I was really ever in a position for this to happen. This is really odd though. Probably the second or third class when guys are leaving and I’m having to check them off the roll, multiple guys are stopping and saying, “Yo, bro,” putting their hand out and shaking my hand and going, “Good class. It was a good class, bro.” Then I have guys coming to me, telling me, “Hey, what are you teaching these guys?” I go, “What do you mean?” He goes, “My cellie’s telling me he’s going to get out and make millions. ‘I’m taking Cox’s real estate class. I’m telling you I can do this. I’m going to be a millionaire.'” And it’s like this flipping houses, this is not…
But the truth is, flipping houses was… What I basically told these guys, especially the drug dealers, right? You’re a drug dealer and you were raised in the projects and you’re going back to the projects. This is the one industry that you will thrive at because you’re a hustler. You’re not afraid. A 45-year-old, divorced, white woman is not going into the Hood knocking on doors to try and flip houses, but you will. And you know everybody in the neighborhood, and you’ll knock on those doors, and you’ll hustle. And you’ve been told no before and you don’t care and you’re not scared, you’re not…
And there’s tons of money to be made in lower income areas. And then when I go through the whole thing and how you can leverage your credit to borrow money to get into the property and do the renovations with very little money down, and I do the whole thing, these guys, they loved it. And what that did for me was two things. One, if you got to the class, 40 guys show up for the class. And I say, “Look, if you don’t want to go, you don’t want to be here, you just want it because your counselor’s making you get a certificate. You don’t want to be here, that’s fine. Bring me two coffees and two creamers from commissary and I’ll fill out all your paperwork and you’ll pass. You’ll get a certificate. I don’t have to see you again.” I have full of coffee and creamer because at least 10 or 15 didn’t want to be there. The other guys seriously wanted to be there. And I don’t want those guys to be there anyway, they’re going to be a problem. So the other guys are serious about it, and some of these guys sat through the class two, three, four times. Some of these guys got out and sent me money, which is a huge sign of respect, by the way. Because they don’t owe me anything. But I did that and I taught GED because you have to do something for money.
And I met a bunch of cool guys and I was hanging out and I was doing well. And after about three years, they transferred me to the low security prison. At this point the FBI starts showing up, asking me questions. They asked me questions about the politician I bribed, asked me questions about him. Statute of limitations was up and they were trying to tie him into the bank fraud. Because his name was Kevin White, and one of my guys’ name was Michael Kevin White, and so they were trying to tie him in. “Did he know about it? Because if he knew about it, statute of limitations is 10 years. We could…” “No, he didn’t know.” Should’ve thrown him in there. Because a couple a years later, he gets indicted. He ends up going to jail anyway.
Lex Fridman
And it could’ve decreased your sentence.
And it could’ve decreased your sentence.
Matthew Cox
Yeah. Listen, listen, stop. Stop. Oh my God.
Yeah. Listen, listen, stop. Stop. Oh my God.
Lex Fridman
I got all my judgment out after the homeless conversation.
I got all my judgment out after the homeless conversation.
Matthew Cox
Listen, it’s only going to get worse.
Listen, it’s only going to get worse.
Lex Fridman
I mean, I really appreciate your honesty and your insight about snitching, honestly, that I have a sense that there’s at least a desire for loyalty in the world.
I mean, I really appreciate your honesty and your insight about snitching, honestly, that I have a sense that there’s at least a desire for loyalty in the world.
Matthew Cox
Wouldn’t that be nice?
Wouldn’t that be nice?
Lex Fridman
Did you ever feel in danger in medium or low?
Did you ever feel in danger in medium or low?
Matthew Cox
Is funny, I had more problems probably at the low than I did the medium. But at the medium, the only thing that happened was an article came out in the newspaper when I was at the medium. It came out and said… Because they’re still investigating things. So this article comes out and I’m on the front page of the St. Petersburg Times. It was about the politician. Big article, and in the article, they interviewed Millie, my lawyer, and she says, “Well, when Mr. Cox was being interviewed by the FBI, one of the first things they wanted to know about was this politician.” So she just said, “Mr. Cox was being interviewed by the FBI.”
Is funny, I had more problems probably at the low than I did the medium. But at the medium, the only thing that happened was an article came out in the newspaper when I was at the medium. It came out and said… Because they’re still investigating things. So this article comes out and I’m on the front page of the St. Petersburg Times. It was about the politician. Big article, and in the article, they interviewed Millie, my lawyer, and she says, “Well, when Mr. Cox was being interviewed by the FBI, one of the first things they wanted to know about was this politician.” So she just said, “Mr. Cox was being interviewed by the FBI.”
So I immediately get taken into custody and they put me in the shoe, the hole, for my own protection, and I’m there for like 45 days. Then after 45 days, they’re like, “Cox, what do you want us to do? You want us to ship you?” I was like, “No, put me back on the compound.” I’m like, “Half the guys here cooperated.” And he goes, “Yeah, it’s more than half.” He said, “But this is the guy from SIS,” which is their internal security.
Lex Fridman
So that’s when he told you that it’s actually a much higher percentage, but-
So that’s when he told you that it’s actually a much higher percentage, but-
Matthew Cox
Right, he said, “But a hundred percent of them are lying about it.” He said, “You just came out in the newspaper.” I go, “Man, I’m not concerned.” “If you are concerned, you got to come immediately to the lieutenant’s office and tell us, we’ll ship you.” I said, “Okay.” I get out there, people are looking at me and, “What’s up?” But I don’t have a lot of friends anyway. I don’t come there to make friends.
Right, he said, “But a hundred percent of them are lying about it.” He said, “You just came out in the newspaper.” I go, “Man, I’m not concerned.” “If you are concerned, you got to come immediately to the lieutenant’s office and tell us, we’ll ship you.” I said, “Okay.” I get out there, people are looking at me and, “What’s up?” But I don’t have a lot of friends anyway. I don’t come there to make friends.
So at one point, this one guy comes to me. I’m walking the yard probably two days later, after I get back on the compound, I’m walking. Guy comes to me, he has a goatee, and it comes down here, and he’s got a little skull thing he had made, whittled out of wood or something, and definitely looks scary. So I’m walking and he stopped, he goes, “Hey, Cox.” I’ve never talked to these guys. I had been there for a year or so and never talked to any of these guys. They’re all like bikers and Aryan Brotherhood. And so I’m like, “Yeah, what’s up?” He said, “Bubba.” Bubba’s their leader. He goes, “Bubba told me to tell you not to walk the yard. He don’t want to see you out in the yard.” And I went, “Okay.” I said, “Well, I’m going to walk the yard tonight.” I said, “And if I get the shit kicked out of me, then I get the shit kicked out of me, but-“
Lex Fridman
But did you talk back to a guy with a wooden skull hanging off his beard?
But did you talk back to a guy with a wooden skull hanging off his beard?
Matthew Cox
I did, but you know what? It was right in front of the guard shack, and so there was guards in the guard shack. They’re 20 feet away.
I did, but you know what? It was right in front of the guard shack, and so there was guards in the guard shack. They’re 20 feet away.
Lex Fridman
Really, you weren’t scared?
Really, you weren’t scared?
Matthew Cox
I mean, I think I just got numb. I’m not stupid, but I’m walking around. I was scared from the moment I got there, on, if that makes sense. So you get to a point where you’re just numb and you’re waiting for it. Especially when I got out of the shoe. Got out of the shoe, I went straight to my cell, laid down. Couple of minutes later it was lockdown, they closed the doors. I wake up the next morning, I go to chow, I go to my job, it starts all over again. So I had a very packed routine. Although there’s guys everywhere, and I’m thinking at some point I might just be walking around, a guy might walk up and just smash me in the head, but it didn’t happen.
I mean, I think I just got numb. I’m not stupid, but I’m walking around. I was scared from the moment I got there, on, if that makes sense. So you get to a point where you’re just numb and you’re waiting for it. Especially when I got out of the shoe. Got out of the shoe, I went straight to my cell, laid down. Couple of minutes later it was lockdown, they closed the doors. I wake up the next morning, I go to chow, I go to my job, it starts all over again. So I had a very packed routine. Although there’s guys everywhere, and I’m thinking at some point I might just be walking around, a guy might walk up and just smash me in the head, but it didn’t happen.
And it’s not that guys aren’t getting stabbed, but they’ve got it coming. I didn’t tell on anybody here. I didn’t do anything. It’s not that on other yards I might not have gotten smashed, but I didn’t get smashed. And I’d been there a while and I taught the real estate class, and everybody wanted to take real estate. So I think that insulated me to a degree. I also had made a few friends there, and I think they were probably also putting out the words like, “Bro, cut this guy a break.”
So I’m walking across and I tell the guy, I said, “Look man,” and I wasn’t rude to him. He wasn’t even rude to me, really. He said, “Don’t walk the yard anymore. Bubba doesn’t want you walking the yard.” I said, “Well, listen, I’m going to go to chow and then I’m going to go out there tonight and walk the yard, and if I get smashed, I get smashed.” I go, “Because I got 26 years and I cannot walk around for the next 26 years, not going on the yard.” I said, “So I’m going to be there, and if that happens, then that happens.” And he looked at me and he goes, “Man, I don’t give a fuck what you do. That’s what Bubba told me to tell you.” He said, “I told you.” And he goes, “I don’t give a shit what you do,” and he walked off.
I went out there that night with a buddy of mine named Zach, a guy named John Gordon, with my cousin and a couple of his buddies. We walked the track for about an hour. Bubba and a group of his guys stood there and looked at us, and as we walked, probably closest we got to them was 30 or 40 feet. That went on for 30 minutes and then they broke up and went their separate ways.
There was a couple of times where I would go to the chow hall and I would go and I’d be sitting at a table and Bubba would walk up and tell the other guys at the table, “I want to let you guys know you’re…” He didn’t even call me a snitch. He said, “You’re sitting with a cooperating witness.” He said, “If that’s how you want to roll,” he said, “You ain’t going to be rolling with us if there’s any trouble.” And then they all looked at me and they got their plate and they moved off. He didn’t tell me to move. And he could’ve walked up and said, “This is a snitch motherfucker.” He didn’t do that. Bubba was very respectful. As respectful as you could be [inaudible 04:52:48].
Lex Fridman
Whatever you want to say about Bubba, he was a respectful man. You ever talk to him directly?
Whatever you want to say about Bubba, he was a respectful man. You ever talk to him directly?
Matthew Cox
Never had a conversation with him. So that went on, but I mean, when I say that went on, I mean literally that’s a couple of times. He said the same thing to a guy in line one time. Guy came up to me later and said, “Look, man, I’m sorry, Matt.” He was standing next to me in line. Bubba said something to him. He went like 10 or 15 people back and stood in line. Later on he came up to me, “Matt, I’m sorry bro, but blah, blah, blah.” I said, “Bro,” I said, “Look, I get it. We’re not friends, don’t worry about it.”
Never had a conversation with him. So that went on, but I mean, when I say that went on, I mean literally that’s a couple of times. He said the same thing to a guy in line one time. Guy came up to me later and said, “Look, man, I’m sorry, Matt.” He was standing next to me in line. Bubba said something to him. He went like 10 or 15 people back and stood in line. Later on he came up to me, “Matt, I’m sorry bro, but blah, blah, blah.” I said, “Bro,” I said, “Look, I get it. We’re not friends, don’t worry about it.”
War dogs
And here’s the thing. At some point there, I ended up getting… Well, the FBI started showing up there at the prison, questioning me about my files in Tampa, that [inaudible 04:53:33] of the 12 guys that were indicted?
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Matthew Cox
They show up and they start asking me about it. And so they’re still working it. Well, at the same time, I end up getting moved to the low security prison. I get to low security prison, they show up over and over again. But at some point they come to me and they say, “Look, we went to the US attorney. We presented everything we have. I have enough to indict all of these guys.” I think it was whittled down to maybe eight instead of 12. And they said, “Look, the entire economy is melting down. At this point some of these are four, five years old. We’ve got banks that are melting down right now. We’ve got 100, 200, 300 million, 500, half a billion dollar banks that we’re investigating. We don’t have time to deal with this. We’re not going to indict those people.” So they get away. The agent I was working with, her name was Leslie Nelson, very nice person. She came… Actually didn’t have to do this, came to the prison to tell me this is what happened. And when she’d first come to see me, I told her, “Listen, I want to do all this, but no matter what happens, I need you to write me a letter. If they don’t indict these people, I need you to write me a letter that I can present to the US attorney on my behalf, that I did everything I could.” And she goes, “I’ll do that. That’s not going to happen. We’re going to get the indictments and everything.” I was, “Okay.”
They show up and they start asking me about it. And so they’re still working it. Well, at the same time, I end up getting moved to the low security prison. I get to low security prison, they show up over and over again. But at some point they come to me and they say, “Look, we went to the US attorney. We presented everything we have. I have enough to indict all of these guys.” I think it was whittled down to maybe eight instead of 12. And they said, “Look, the entire economy is melting down. At this point some of these are four, five years old. We’ve got banks that are melting down right now. We’ve got 100, 200, 300 million, 500, half a billion dollar banks that we’re investigating. We don’t have time to deal with this. We’re not going to indict those people.” So they get away. The agent I was working with, her name was Leslie Nelson, very nice person. She came… Actually didn’t have to do this, came to the prison to tell me this is what happened. And when she’d first come to see me, I told her, “Listen, I want to do all this, but no matter what happens, I need you to write me a letter. If they don’t indict these people, I need you to write me a letter that I can present to the US attorney on my behalf, that I did everything I could.” And she goes, “I’ll do that. That’s not going to happen. We’re going to get the indictments and everything.” I was, “Okay.”
So of course, a year later, she shows up after nothing happens and they’ve dropped the case. She shows up and she tells me what happened, and he’s not going to do it. And I go, “Do you remember that you…” She goes, “I got the letter right now.” Gave me the letter. She was like, “That’s it.” Great letter. It says, “Mr. Cox has worked, blah, blah, blah. He’s done this, this, this,” great. And even said, “He deserves a reduction in my opinion, blah, blah, blah.” But nobody was arrested.
So I call my public defender, I call Millie, I explain it to her, and she starts crying and she’s sorry. And, “Well, what are we going to do?” “Well, there’s nothing you can do. You’re time barred.” You have one year to file a 2255, which is to say that your lawyer is ineffective or that the court has made a mistake in some way. And it had been over a year, it had been years. It’d been like four years. And she’s like, “Yeah, I mean, there’s nothing you can do.” And she’s in tears, and I feel like I’m done. At that point I’m done.
And what I do is I start writing a book. I write my memoir. And this is not a shameless plug for my memoir, by the way, which is amazing. Just saying. But so what happens is I actually write it. I write it, and then I have to rewrite it because I don’t really know what I’m doing. And I’ve been reading true crime and that sort of thing. And I’ve always liked true crime. I get a literary agent, comes to see me, tells me I have to rewrite some stuff. We rewrite it. As I’m finishing up my memoir, there’s a guy that comes on the compound, and his name is Efraim Diveroli. Efraim Diveroli and his business partner, a guy named David Packouz, were selling munitions, AK-47 rounds.
Matthew Cox
… selling munitions, AK-47 rounds, really tons of munitions. But they got in trouble with this and they were selling them to the US government for the Afghani Security forces. And there had been an article in Rolling Stone Magazine about him, and I’d read it and somebody points them out and says, “Hey, that’s that guy.” And I went up to him, I said, “Hey, bro, you just got here?” He’s like, “Yeah.” And I said, “Look, if you want to write a memoir or anything, I’m finishing my memoir. I can always help you. I can help write an outline. You can get a professional writer, whatever you need help.” He’s like, “Yeah, all right.” Efraim Diveroli was played by Jonah Hill in the movie War Docs. So a few months later, he comes to me and says, “Hey, they sold the movie rights.” I was like, “Oh wow, that’s great.”
… selling munitions, AK-47 rounds, really tons of munitions. But they got in trouble with this and they were selling them to the US government for the Afghani Security forces. And there had been an article in Rolling Stone Magazine about him, and I’d read it and somebody points them out and says, “Hey, that’s that guy.” And I went up to him, I said, “Hey, bro, you just got here?” He’s like, “Yeah.” And I said, “Look, if you want to write a memoir or anything, I’m finishing my memoir. I can always help you. I can help write an outline. You can get a professional writer, whatever you need help.” He’s like, “Yeah, all right.” Efraim Diveroli was played by Jonah Hill in the movie War Docs. So a few months later, he comes to me and says, “Hey, they sold the movie rights.” I was like, “Oh wow, that’s great.”
And I’m like, “You don’t want to write a memoir?” And he’s like, “Yeah, man. It was sold to the guys from the Hangover movie.” And I was like, “So the guys from the Hangover movie are going to make a movie about you?” I said, “You understand, they’re going to call it like, dude, where’s my hand grenade? And you’re going to be Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High. You’re going to be a joke, all because you don’t want to write a memoir and get your version out there.” And he was like, “Holy shit”. So I ended up writing an outline for him. We worked together, and then he asked that, “Can I read your book?” And I was like, “Sure.” And I give it to him and he reads it and he comes back and he said, “Bro, this is the best thing I’ve ever read in my life.” And to be honest, I later found out he’d read about three books in his entire life, but still it was very nice…
Interviewer
[inaudible 04:58:31] still the other two.
[inaudible 04:58:31] still the other two.
Matthew Cox
So he asked me if I’ll write his book, I write his book. We work out a deal and we do that. And I’m saying all this because I basically settle in. I’m done. I’m going to do 26 years.
So he asked me if I’ll write his book, I write his book. We work out a deal and we do that. And I’m saying all this because I basically settle in. I’m done. I’m going to do 26 years.
Interviewer
By the way, just on a small tangent, how did you know you’d be good at writing?
By the way, just on a small tangent, how did you know you’d be good at writing?
Matthew Cox
I had written a manuscript prior to even taking off on the run, I used to listen to John Grisham books. I would listen to him in the car. I liked John Grisham books, and I’d actually written a manuscript about a mortgage broker. He writes about lawyers, and it’s like, Laurie, being a lawyer is not exciting. If you can make that sound exciting, I can make being a mortgage broker. And I wrote a book, put it at my desk, and the FBI found it and they had said, “Oh, it’s a blueprint to the fraud that he’s going to commit.” It wasn’t, stop. That character was as much me as John Grisham’s characters are him.
I had written a manuscript prior to even taking off on the run, I used to listen to John Grisham books. I would listen to him in the car. I liked John Grisham books, and I’d actually written a manuscript about a mortgage broker. He writes about lawyers, and it’s like, Laurie, being a lawyer is not exciting. If you can make that sound exciting, I can make being a mortgage broker. And I wrote a book, put it at my desk, and the FBI found it and they had said, “Oh, it’s a blueprint to the fraud that he’s going to commit.” It wasn’t, stop. That character was as much me as John Grisham’s characters are him.
Interviewer
But it’s still interesting that John Grisham didn’t…
But it’s still interesting that John Grisham didn’t…
Matthew Cox
Right. I mean, if John Grisham did something similar to what one of the…
Right. I mean, if John Grisham did something similar to what one of the…
Interviewer
Yeah, I saw a quote somewhere that the criminal is a true artist and the detective is merely a critic. Something like that. Does that resonate with you or not?
Yeah, I saw a quote somewhere that the criminal is a true artist and the detective is merely a critic. Something like that. Does that resonate with you or not?
Matthew Cox
I’ll have to look that up.
I’ll have to look that up.
Interviewer
Okay, so you already knew you could write?
Okay, so you already knew you could write?
Frank Amodeo
Matthew Cox
Well, I knew I liked it, but yeah, I think I got better and better at it. I mean, as you’re writing… And they had creative writing classes in prison at the Lowe. The Lowe was a much different breed of animal. You could very easily get hurt, you could get hurt either place, but there were guys that have life sentences that have been working out for 20 years and were just super angry at the medium. And if you got hurt at the medium, it was probably really go bad, as opposed to you get hurt at the Lowe, it’s more like a fistfight in high school, with knives. So anyway, so I am there. I’m writing, I’m doing that. And there was a guy on the compound that came on the compound about that same time. His name was Frank Amadeo. Frank Amadeo is a rapid-cycling bipolar with features of schizophrenia.
Well, I knew I liked it, but yeah, I think I got better and better at it. I mean, as you’re writing… And they had creative writing classes in prison at the Lowe. The Lowe was a much different breed of animal. You could very easily get hurt, you could get hurt either place, but there were guys that have life sentences that have been working out for 20 years and were just super angry at the medium. And if you got hurt at the medium, it was probably really go bad, as opposed to you get hurt at the Lowe, it’s more like a fistfight in high school, with knives. So anyway, so I am there. I’m writing, I’m doing that. And there was a guy on the compound that came on the compound about that same time. His name was Frank Amadeo. Frank Amadeo is a rapid-cycling bipolar with features of schizophrenia.
Interviewer
Rapid-cycling, bipolar with features of schizophrenia.
Rapid-cycling, bipolar with features of schizophrenia.
Matthew Cox
It’s just constant, right? And so there are moments in his manic state where his reoccurring psychosis, I guess, is… That he believes, and since he was in his early teens, has believed that he’s preordained by God to be emperor of the world. He’s a lawyer, disbarred. Stole close to $200 million from the federal government. They gave him 22 years and they sent him to Coleman, but it doesn’t… This is the part I love. The delusions don’t affect his legal work. It doesn’t say a ton for legal community, but…
It’s just constant, right? And so there are moments in his manic state where his reoccurring psychosis, I guess, is… That he believes, and since he was in his early teens, has believed that he’s preordained by God to be emperor of the world. He’s a lawyer, disbarred. Stole close to $200 million from the federal government. They gave him 22 years and they sent him to Coleman, but it doesn’t… This is the part I love. The delusions don’t affect his legal work. It doesn’t say a ton for legal community, but…
Interviewer
How do you know he’s delusional? I’m just asking questions.
How do you know he’s delusional? I’m just asking questions.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, he’s trust me. I mean, it’s not me. It’s like the transcripts, the lawyers, the doctors. There’s a ton of ton. And then if you saw him in action, you’d be like, “Oh, wow.” He would be completely normal. He would be having a completely normal conversation and somebody would say something and he’d go, “That makes me so angry. I am not going to let them do that. When my legions march on Washington, we are going to burn the constitution and the president will kneel at my feet.” And he goes, “I’m going to need your transcripts. I’m going to need a 2255 form. We’re going to file a…”
Yeah, he’s trust me. I mean, it’s not me. It’s like the transcripts, the lawyers, the doctors. There’s a ton of ton. And then if you saw him in action, you’d be like, “Oh, wow.” He would be completely normal. He would be having a completely normal conversation and somebody would say something and he’d go, “That makes me so angry. I am not going to let them do that. When my legions march on Washington, we are going to burn the constitution and the president will kneel at my feet.” And he goes, “I’m going to need your transcripts. I’m going to need a 2255 form. We’re going to file a…”
And everybody would sit there and be like, “Okay, Frank, I’ll get to this and I’ll get…” It was insane. It was the most insane… He was basically running a medium-sized law firm from inside of the prison. He was training people. He taught the legal research class and was training people on how to do legal research in prison, how to put together motions, how to fight their cases, how to do the research, how to type them up. Everything. It’s like a law school. He’s teaching these guys… Listen, they made such a mistake locking this guy up.
Interviewer
So he’s a great lawyer.
So he’s a great lawyer.
Matthew Cox
Listen, it’s going to get worse. It’s going to get worse. Because here’s what happens is, at this point, I don’t talk to him for probably a year or so because everybody’s saying he’s crazy. And for a year, he gets there, he’s drooling out of the side of his mouth. They got him on a ton of medication. It takes him about a year to take him off the medication. So he gets them to take him off the medication, and then he starts stabilizing his mood by drinking Pepsi. I know. I know it’s crazy. I see you looking at me like this guy’s delusional. I know. So at some point, one of my buddies comes to me and says, “Look, you got to go talk to Frank.” Here’s the other thing. Over the course of a year or two that he starts doing legal work for guys, he starts just taking on guys’ cases. “I’ll do the motion, I’ll do your legal work, I’ll do this.” Keeps him busy. But suddenly you start hearing people get released.
Listen, it’s going to get worse. It’s going to get worse. Because here’s what happens is, at this point, I don’t talk to him for probably a year or so because everybody’s saying he’s crazy. And for a year, he gets there, he’s drooling out of the side of his mouth. They got him on a ton of medication. It takes him about a year to take him off the medication. So he gets them to take him off the medication, and then he starts stabilizing his mood by drinking Pepsi. I know. I know it’s crazy. I see you looking at me like this guy’s delusional. I know. So at some point, one of my buddies comes to me and says, “Look, you got to go talk to Frank.” Here’s the other thing. Over the course of a year or two that he starts doing legal work for guys, he starts just taking on guys’ cases. “I’ll do the motion, I’ll do your legal work, I’ll do this.” Keeps him busy. But suddenly you start hearing people get released.
Jimmy just got 10 years knocked off his sentence. He’s going to halfway house next month. Tom got an immediate release. Frank’s walking people up to R&D, shaking their hands. Guys are walking up to him in tears, crying. And so crazy or not, what choice do I have? I called three different lawyers on the street and said, “This is what happened. What can I do? What can I do?” They told me to do this and this and this, and I worked with them, and then they decided not to proceed, and what can I do? And they said, “You’re hit, bro. There’s nothing you can do. In the 11th circuit, you cannot force them to file a reduction on your behalf. You cannot do it. It’s impossible. You’re hit. You’re done. It’s over. I’d love to take your money, Mr. Cox, but it’s not going to happen. I’m not just going to take your money. You’re going to lose.” Three different lawyers.
I talked to Irti’s lawyer, told me, “Bro, it’s not going to happen. It’s over.” So my buddy says, “Go talk to Frank.” I said, “Well, why wouldn’t I? I got nothing else to lose.” So I go talk to Frank. He actually has a little manic moment, that little thing that I just showed you. That’s exactly what he said the first time I talked to him.
Interviewer
Based on your case?
Based on your case?
Matthew Cox
Yes, “I won’t let this happen.” He’s like, “I’m going to need your transcripts. I’m going to need you to get this. I need to see your indictment. I’m going to need your percentage report. I’m going to need…” I was like, “Okay.” And I turned to my buddy. He’s like, “Bro, I know. I know what you’re thinking. It’s fine.” It’s fucking crazy. And he’s like, “I understand. What choice do you have?” I was like Fuck. So Frank files a 2255 motion on my behalf stating that I’m not time-barred that Millie was… We file it against Millie, stating that she was ineffective, that she didn’t understand the law. She had me plead to something. Because she thought I could get a reduction simply for doing Dateline. Oh, by the way, when I was in the medium, the government came to me and asked me to be interviewed by American Greed. I do that. I’m interviewed. And they get me on the phone, they talk to me, everything. The prosecutor wants me to do it. She’s re-interviewed, everybody’s re-interviwed.
Yes, “I won’t let this happen.” He’s like, “I’m going to need your transcripts. I’m going to need you to get this. I need to see your indictment. I’m going to need your percentage report. I’m going to need…” I was like, “Okay.” And I turned to my buddy. He’s like, “Bro, I know. I know what you’re thinking. It’s fine.” It’s fucking crazy. And he’s like, “I understand. What choice do you have?” I was like Fuck. So Frank files a 2255 motion on my behalf stating that I’m not time-barred that Millie was… We file it against Millie, stating that she was ineffective, that she didn’t understand the law. She had me plead to something. Because she thought I could get a reduction simply for doing Dateline. Oh, by the way, when I was in the medium, the government came to me and asked me to be interviewed by American Greed. I do that. I’m interviewed. And they get me on the phone, they talk to me, everything. The prosecutor wants me to do it. She’s re-interviewed, everybody’s re-interviwed.
It airs. Millie goes to the government, says, “Look, reduce the sentence.” They go, “No, Millie, it’s not enough.” Then they come to me and they ask me to write an ethics and fraud course. I write an ethics and fraud course. The guy I write the course with that flies up to Atlanta. He talks with… I think he drove up, but he goes up to Atlanta, he talks with a US attorney, talks to Millie. She insists if he does this, I will reduce his sentence. I will definitely consider this. Definitely consider. And then we do it. It’s being used all over the nation. Not enough. At this point, I go to Frank. I tell Frank what’s happening. Frank says, “Yeah…” He goes, “Every time they asked you to do something, it reset the time bar. You have a year from that time to file a 2255.”
Now, he insists that that was a viable argument. Nobody else does. But he said, “I’m not going to let them do this. I’m going to take care of this. I’m going to get your sentence reduced.” Okay. “Emperor. Okay, Emperor.” So he was a character. Anyway, so he files a 2255. The government comes back, they say, “He’s time-barred.” Frank comes back, they answer his motion, he files a retort. It just goes back and forth. This goes [inaudible 05:07:46] for six months to a year. And at some point, I go to mail call, and they call my name and they hand me this thing, and I open it up, and it says the government’s filed a motion for a stay so that they want the court to appoint me a lawyer and to discuss filing a Rule 35, reducing my sentence. And I’m like, I read it, but I couldn’t even understand.
I don’t understand. So I mean, I rushed to go find Frank. I show it to Frank and he says, “Yeah, they’re staying it. They’re going to send you a lawyer and you’re going to negotiate for how much they’re going to reduce your sentence.” He says, “It’s perfect.” So they fly this woman down, her name was Esther Panitch. She flies down, comes to the visitation room, they bring me there, the lawyer’s room, whatever they call it. And so we’re sitting there, and I remember we’re talking, and she says, “Listen, your motion, your 2255 is written well, but honestly, you don’t have much of a prayer, and they’re offering you a one-level reduction, which is 30 months.” And I went, “Oh, that’s not enough.” And she said, “Well, I don’t know what to tell you.” She said, “They’re willing to bring you back.” And I was like, “Well…” I mean, I don’t know.
I go to talk to Frank. Frank said, I deserve this many levels, and we’re going back and forth. She says, “Who’s Frank?” And I go, “Frank’s the guy that’s doing all my legal work.” She goes, “He didn’t write all this.” And I was like, [inaudible 05:09:20], “No, who wrote?” And I explained it to her and she’s like, “He’s an inmate?” And I was like, “Yeah.” And she says, “Why is he here?” And I tell her, “Well, he stole a bunch of money from the federal government because he’s trying to take over the world.” So I tell her that whole thing. And she’s like, “You’re letting a mentally incompetent person do your legal work.” And I was like, “Yeah, because all the competent attorneys wouldn’t do it. They said, I didn’t have a prayer. Your people said, I didn’t have a prayer.” And I said, “Frank said he could get this done.”
And she’s like, “Well, I mean, I don’t even know why they’re offering you one-level.” I was like, “Well, Frank said.” And I’m like, Frank this, Frank that [inaudible 05:10:00] ended up saying, she’s like, “You’re taking advice from a legally, an incompetent person.” I said, “Yeah.” She said, “You really don’t have a prayer.” I said, “Then why are you here?” I said, “If they could crush me so easily, why are you here?” I said, “They’re giving me one-level. Let me talk to Frank. I’ll let you know what we’re going to do.” So I leave. I call her a couple of days later, I tell her… I talked to Frank. Frank said, “Go back. Go back and argue for more.” He said, “I think the judge is going to give you more. He’s going to give you at least between whatever he said, six or seven levels or something.”
So I get moved all the way back to Atlanta. The FBI agent comes to talk on my behalf, the guy… Multiple people show up to talk on my behalf. They say… Millie, who I filed the 2255 against. So I’m basically saying, “You’re ineffective, you’re incompetent.” But she knows the game. She’s like, “I get it.” She gets on the stand and testifies for me. So the judge goes, “Listen…” I think we were asking for nine levels or something outrageous. Prosecutor starts arguing for one-level. And he said, “Listen, one-level is not nearly enough for what Mr. Cox has done.” He said, “Mr. Cox, I know you’re arguing for nine levels off. You’re [inaudible 05:11:22].” He goes, “That was never going to happen.” I was like… It felt like I got slapped. He said, three levels. “I’m going to go with three levels.” He goes, “Which is seven years.” Which he said, “For somebody who has no arrest associated with his case.” He said, “I think it’s pretty good,” and that’s [inaudible 05:11:44] judgment and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And he hammered, puts the gavel down and walks off and that’s it. It’s over, I get seven years. I was hoping for more. So I get moved back to Coleman. I get moved back to Coleman, and I go up to Frank and I said, “Frank, I got seven years off.” And he is like, ” I know.” I said, “And I don’t mean to sound unappreciative.” I said, “I was hoping for more.” He goes, “I was too.” He said, “It looks like we’re going to have to eat this elephant one spoonful at a time.” And he goes, “Something will come out. Something’s going to happen.”
He said, “Keep your ears open. Something will happen.” And I said, “Okay.” And honestly, by that point, I’d done eight years, and I remember if I got a year off for the drug program and good time and this, I had about eight years left to go or something, nine years left. And I was like, “I can do that. I’ll write.” I’d been writing. By that point, I’d actually written a story. I got a book deal for Deboroli, and I ended up writing a synopsis of a guy’s story. And I got him in Rolling Stone Magazine. And I got a book deal for that. I got an advance. It was thirty-five hundred bucks for being in prison, a prisoner to get a thirty-five hundred in advance is like, “I’m a millionaire.” That’s a lot of money. And then we optioned the film rights.
Basically the synopsis that I wrote for this reporter, journalist for Rolling Stone, he goes to Rolling Stone with what I wrote and gives it to them, and they okay it, they say, “Yeah, this is great. We want you to write an article based on this.” He writes the article. He tells me that the article will be from his name Guy Lawson, Douglas Dodd, which is the name of the kid I wrote the memoir about, and Matthew Cox. A couple of weeks before the article is going to be published, he tells me Rolling Stone doesn’t want my name on the article because I’m in federal prison and it doesn’t look good, but don’t worry, he’s going to put my name in the article. And that’s just as good. And I argue it’s not just as good. It’s not. I’m like, “I would be a writer for Rolling Stone Magazine. You understand, I’m trying to come up with something here that I can rebuild my life as a true crime writer. That’s no good.”
And that wasn’t so bad. That wasn’t the worst. The worst of it was 90% of the article that he published was taken directly from what I sent him. I mean, sick to my stomach, bro, just sick over it. But they option the life rights for that. And I got a piece of that. So there’s like $7,000. I get a cheque for that. So I’m thrilled I can keep writing. Because you have to understand, writing on the computer there they charge you. So I start… Oh, they charge you for phone calls, writing… Every single thing costs money. So I start writing all these guys’ stories. I start writing books. I went back to Atlanta, got seven years knocked off my sentence, come back, and I’m walking around the compound. Now, there was a guy that was there named Ron Wilson. Ron Wilson ran… If you look in the newspaper, it says it’s like a hundred million dollars Ponzi scheme.
But really it was fifty-seven million dollars. He had lost fifty-seven million. So it says a hundred. They always exaggerate. Because fifty-seven is not enough. Ron ended up getting nineteen and a half years. Ron was an old conman, early sixties, sixty-two, sixty-one, I don’t know. And I liked Ron. So we’re walking around the compound and he’s like, “So what are you going to do? I mean, you eight or nine more years to go?” And I was like, “Yeah, I’m going to keep writing and when I get out of here, maybe I’ll have a huge body of work and maybe I’ll be to sell it, or maybe I’ll be able to option some more stuff. And if I could get together with Rolling Stone or get with some of these magazines, I could start writing for them and I could option those. Maybe I could walk out of here with something.” “Right, right, right.” So Ron was… Who’d only been locked up like a year or so. He was cooperating, with the Secret Service in his case, against some of his co-defendants.
So he’s already been debriefed and he’s cooperating. He’s actually thinking he might get brought back to have to testify at a trial. We’re talking and we’re walking, and he keeps saying, “Even if they charge those guys, and even if this happens, they’re not going to reduce my sentence. They’re not going to cut my sentence.” First of all, well, probably because you stole a bunch of money from pension funds and churches that didn’t help your case. But I don’t say that. So I say, “Oh, they have to, bro. They’ll have to, if you cooperate, they’re going to have to. And if they don’t, we’ll have Frank file a 2255.” And he’s like, “Ah, that crazy mother…” So he says, “Okay.” He’s like, “Yeah, yeah, you don’t understand. You don’t understand.” So this goes on for months. And I’m like, “What is the problem?” And he says, “They think I hid Ponzi scheme money.”
And he’d actually dug up like five or six million dollars in Ponzi scheme proceeds that he dug. He buried in these… Literally buried in aluminum ammunition canisters. Super interesting guy. So he actually went and dug them up and gave them to him. And I’m like, “Well, you gave them all the money. You didn’t hide anything. Relax, it’s not a big deal. They’re not going to find anything, don’t worry about it.” And so he mentions it a couple of weeks later, a couple of weeks later, and then one day I go, “Bro, why do you keep bringing this up? What are you concerned about? It’s not going to happen.”
And he said, “Can I trust you?” And I went, “Probably not.” And he goes, “I did hide some money.” I was like, “Okay.” I said, “Did you bury it in a can somewhere?” And he’s like, “No, I gave my wife 150,000 in cash.” I said, “Okay, well, she’s not going to say anything she’s using [inaudible 05:18:20].” He said, “No, you don’t understand. Since then she found out I was having an affair and we’re going to get a divorce. And she hates me. And I think she’ll turn that money in just to make sure that I don’t get a reduction.” Because if you lie to the FBI, it doesn’t matter what you’ve done for them, they won’t give you anything. And so, I’m sorry, the Secret Service or… Anyway, he has clearly lied to the Secret Service at this point.
If she goes and says, “This is what he gave me.” So I was like, “Oh, wow.” And he’s like, “My brother’s holding maybe 30,000 for me.” And at that moment I was like, “Wow, this poor guy.” No, that’s not what I thought at all. What I thought was, “Is that enough to get me a sentence reduction?” And I went and I sat there, and you know what I thought? I thought, “No.” I thought, “That’s not enough. That’s not enough. It’s nothing. That’s not even $200,000.” And they didn’t want to give me a reduction. My prosecutor was pissed that I got seven years off. She wanted me to get 30 months. She’s not going to give me anything. It’s up to her. She’s not going to do it. So I go, I lay down, I go to bed. A month later, I’m on the phone with my lawyer.
I had written, I remember wrote, I had a manuscript from my book, and I wanted to put some of the stuff that was said in my sentencing in the book. So I was trying to get my lawyer to mail me my transcripts, and she hadn’t done it. So I called her and I said, “Listen, you said you were going to…” She’s like, “Oh God, man, I’m so sorry. I’m so busy. I’ll do it. I’ll do it.” And then she went… This is Esther. She goes, “So what else is going on in there?” And she never wanted to talk to me, when they were paying her, she didn’t want to talk to me. And I was like, “What do you mean nothing? I just need my transcription.” She’s like, “Nothing’s happening. There’s nothing you want to talk about.” And I was like, “And I went, you know what? There’s something weird happened there. Listen to this.” And I told her about Ron Wilson, and she goes, “Hold on.” And she looks him up on the computer. She goes, “Oh wow. This is a bad guy. This is a bad guy.”
“And he told you… Then you know where it [inaudible 05:20:36]” “Absolutely. And I can tell you exactly.” And she goes, “Okay, okay, okay.” She goes, “Let me look into this.” I go, “Okay.” So a week later, a CO comes to me and goes, “Hey, Cox.” And I go, “What’s up?” He goes, “Listen, at the next move…” Because they have controlled moves. All the doors are locked, and they open them up for 10 minutes. So you can run to the chow hall or you can run to the… You can’t run though. They have no running on the compound, but you can walk fast to the rec yard or the library, whatever. He says. “The next move go to SIS.” So I go to SIS on the next move. But I was used to going there, by the way, because I was constantly ordering Freedom of Information acts. And so I’d order… You’re an inmate and I’m writing a story for you. And I’d order it and they’d send it to me.
And then they would catch it and they’d be like, “Why are you getting Lex’s information?” So they’d call me down there and I go, “No, I ordered it for him and I’m writing a story, and I’d already been in Rolling Stone and everything.” They’re like, “What’s the story?” And I tell him the story. The guy’s like, “That’s a pretty good story here.” And so I go down there, but this is different. This is the guy answers the door and this guy, they call him Bulldog. He was a real asshole. He was a lieutenant at SIS. And he’s like, “Get in here, Cox, sit down.” And he dials the phone. He goes, “Here, you got to talk to this guy.” And I’m like, “What?” And I pick up the phone, I’m like, “Hello?” And the guy goes, “Hey, this is Agent Griffin with the Secret Service. I understand you know where Ron Wilson has hidden Ponzi scheme money. I want something in writing.”
So I start doing that and they go, “Okay.” Then I get his email address and we start emailing each other back and forth, and he ends up getting a letter from the US attorney in South Carolina that says they will consider it substantial assistance if they make arrests or recover a substantial amount of money. That’s the best I’m going to get [inaudible 05:22:28] consider. So I start talking to this guy and he starts asking me questions about Ron Wilson. Like, “Hey, ask him this, ask him this.” So I’m like, “Bro, I got to work that into a conversation. That’s an odd thing to ask.” So this goes on for six months. So I’m asking questions and I’m typing up little reports, and I’m a prison snitch now. So I’m not just cooperate now [inaudible 05:22:50] prison. So I’ve moved down. I’ve moved down actually from being just a cooperating witness or…
Interviewer
Because you’re in prison, is that what makes you a prison snitch?
Because you’re in prison, is that what makes you a prison snitch?
Matthew Cox
You can’t even really say. No, you could say Prison Rat. You could say Prison Rat. I think prison snitch, I think, that’s probably the closer the term that most guys would use.
You can’t even really say. No, you could say Prison Rat. You could say Prison Rat. I think prison snitch, I think, that’s probably the closer the term that most guys would use.
Interviewer
What’s the difference between a snitch and a rat in prison?
What’s the difference between a snitch and a rat in prison?
Matthew Cox
I’m not sure. It rolls off the tongue better. Prison rat doesn’t sound as good as prison snitch. I don’t know. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about this. So what happens is I’m asking Wilson questions periodically, and at some point they contact me and they say, listen, “Wilson’s about to get some bad news.” I go, “Okay.” And they go, “He’s like… I wouldn’t want to tell you what it is. Let us know what happens.” Two days go by and Wilson comes up to me one day and says, “Cox, Cox.” I’m like, “Oh, shit.” I’m like, “Hey, what’s up?” He’s like, “Oh, you’re not going to believe this. I got indicted.” I was like, “What? What happened? No.” “Yeah, my wife, they questioned my wife and my brother, and my wife walked in. First she said, I don’t have nothing. I don’t know what you’re talking about.”
I’m not sure. It rolls off the tongue better. Prison rat doesn’t sound as good as prison snitch. I don’t know. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about this. So what happens is I’m asking Wilson questions periodically, and at some point they contact me and they say, listen, “Wilson’s about to get some bad news.” I go, “Okay.” And they go, “He’s like… I wouldn’t want to tell you what it is. Let us know what happens.” Two days go by and Wilson comes up to me one day and says, “Cox, Cox.” I’m like, “Oh, shit.” I’m like, “Hey, what’s up?” He’s like, “Oh, you’re not going to believe this. I got indicted.” I was like, “What? What happened? No.” “Yeah, my wife, they questioned my wife and my brother, and my wife walked in. First she said, I don’t have nothing. I don’t know what you’re talking about.”
The next day, the brother walks in and gives them $150,000 in cash. And so the next day the wife comes back and gives him $250,000 in cash and a bunch of silver, like gold, bullion and silver, because his Ponzi scheme was based off of silver. He was going to invest in silver for you. So half a million dollars, they turn over half a million. I’m like, “Half a million dollars? I thought she was a hundred thousand or something.” And he was like, “I know. I didn’t know I could trust you.” I’m like, “Ron, what are you doing? I thought we were…” So I’ll tell you something just for the icing on the cake by the way, the icing on the cake. Let me explain one more thing.
So if somebody cooperates with the federal government, let’s say I get arrested and they go, “You want to help yourself?” And you go, “Yeah, okay, look, Jimmy is a… He lives next to me and he’s running a meth house, a meth lab, whatever.” And they go and they raid Jimmy and he gets arrested. You’re going to get something off of that. Not a lot, but you’re going to get something. And they could just say, “We were going to bust him anyway. We were already onto him.” Now, the next level would be you wear a wire.
So I wore a wire and I was in danger. Now keep in mind, I’m asking this guy questions inside federal prison. I’m in danger. So whatever, that’s the next level. You’re taking an active participation in the investigation. And the third level would be you actually get on the stand and you cooperate and you testify there’s no better cooperation than that. So when Wilson says to me, “They’re going to move me back to South Carolina, they’ve indicted me. They’ve charged me, what do you think I should do?” And I go, “I think you should go to trial, because I know they’ll have to call me as a witness.” Just to let you know, I don’t want to walk out of here and have you feeling like, “Hey, there’s some good to this guy.” So I’m ready to gut Wilson like a fish.
Interviewer
But you are putting yourself in danger if you get on the stand, right?
But you are putting yourself in danger if you get on the stand, right?
Matthew Cox
I’m already in danger. If people there heard what I was doing, I probably would’ve been in danger.
I’m already in danger. If people there heard what I was doing, I probably would’ve been in danger.
Interviewer
Does that increase the chance of them hearing or no?
Does that increase the chance of them hearing or no?
Matthew Cox
It does, but it also increases my ability to get more off my sentence. So what happens is a couple of days later, he’s on what’s called the packout. They’re going to move him maybe a week later. So they come and get him, they move him, he gets back there to South Carolina and he pleads guilty. They sentence him, he gets six months added on. So he is now from nineteen and a half to twenty years. And by the way, when Covid hit, he was released. So he only ended up doing six years on a twenty-year sentence because he was older, by that point, he was sixty-six, sixty-seven years old. Anybody older than fifty-five was in danger, especially in the prison. So they had a Covid thing where they were releasing these guys and sending them home on [inaudible 05:27:37].Like, “He’s an old man, he’s not going to hurt. He’s not a danger.”
It does, but it also increases my ability to get more off my sentence. So what happens is a couple of days later, he’s on what’s called the packout. They’re going to move him maybe a week later. So they come and get him, they move him, he gets back there to South Carolina and he pleads guilty. They sentence him, he gets six months added on. So he is now from nineteen and a half to twenty years. And by the way, when Covid hit, he was released. So he only ended up doing six years on a twenty-year sentence because he was older, by that point, he was sixty-six, sixty-seven years old. Anybody older than fifty-five was in danger, especially in the prison. So they had a Covid thing where they were releasing these guys and sending them home on [inaudible 05:27:37].Like, “He’s an old man, he’s not going to hurt. He’s not a danger.”
So they sent him home. So he ended up doing… So he didn’t even serve the six months. He didn’t even serve the original sentence, whatever. Not that I care. So I’m just saying, if it makes you feel like, “Poor Ron.” It’s okay. So his wife got a hundred hours of community service or something, or sixty hours, and I think his brother got six months papers. They got charged with obstruction of justice and neither one of them… It was six months probation and community service, nothing. So when I turn around, I’m waiting for my reduction, waiting, waiting. After about 90 days after this guy gets sentenced, maybe six months, I send a letter, “Hey, what’s going on to the prosecuting, to my prosecutor?” The prosecutor of both districts, no response. Then I go to Frank, I explain to Frank, and Frank has known what’s going on the whole time. And Frank goes, “Okay, I’m going to file a 2255.” So we file a 2255, government comes back and first thing they say is, “Your Honor, we don’t know about any cooperation. We’ve never heard about any cooperation.”
So of course then we submit the letter that we have, the judge comes back and the judge ends up saying it’s a little complicated, but he ends up saying, “Look, I don’t have jurisdiction to hear this because you may be time-barred, but I’m going to let the appeals court hear it.” Now, typically, you have to get what’s called a right of a certification to appeal. You have to make sure that you actually have a case. He says, “I’m waiving the cert and I’m waiving the $500 fee to file with them.” And he basically expedites it for me, which is a subtle way of telling the prosecutor, “I think he’s got something and I’m sending it up there.” And the way he writes his motion, it’s basically saying, “I don’t have the jurisdiction to do anything, but they do. They need to do it. And I’m paving the way. You don’t have to pay any money and you don’t need that cert.” So the prosecution immediately comes back, they file a one level reduction, and…
Matthew Cox
… level reduction. And we immediately, Frank files something saying, “Hey, stop. We don’t want the reduction. We don’t want the one level, we want to come back to court. Please don’t rule on it.” So the judge says, “Okay, I’m freezing everything. I’m putting a stay on everything. I’m going to give this guy a lawyer to try and figure out what you’re going to do.”
… level reduction. And we immediately, Frank files something saying, “Hey, stop. We don’t want the reduction. We don’t want the one level, we want to come back to court. Please don’t rule on it.” So the judge says, “Okay, I’m freezing everything. I’m putting a stay on everything. I’m going to give this guy a lawyer to try and figure out what you’re going to do.”
They fly down a lawyer, Leanne Weber. So she comes, and she comes and sees me and she says, “Listen, I see that you want to go back and fight this and this, but honestly I don’t think you’re going to get anything more than one level. I talked to the prosecution. They said they’ll give you…” Well, she said, “I can work on trying to get you two levels, but you don’t have much of a prayer. You’re going to get crushed.” And I said, “Well, then why are you here? If they can crush me so easy, why don’t they do it? Why would they pay you…” They pay them like 12 grand or something just to fly down and all your expenses, “… to negotiate for me? Why not crush me?” And she’s like, “I don’t know.”
I said, “Well, Frank said four levels.” And she’s like, “Who’s Frank?” I go, “Frank’s the guy that wrote all this.” And she’s like, “Oh, is he an attorney? Is he in here?” And I’m like, “Yeah, he’s in here.” She’s like, “Why is he in here?” And I tell her, you’ve taken over the world. And she says, “That’s the strangest thing I’ve ever heard in my entire life.” And I said, “I understand. But Frank said…” And she’s like, “You’re listening to an incompetent…” I’m like, “Yeah, absolutely. And Frank said we want four levels. He said for me to tell you we want four levels.” She goes, “Okay.”
She leaves, she goes to the US attorney. We argue. Two levels. They come back and say two levels. No. We go back and forth. We start filing motions saying we want to go back, we want a hearing. We want to bring back all the FBI agents, the Secret Service agents. And she’s like, “What? Do you want to turn this into a circus?” “Exactly what I want to do. I’m going to turn it into the biggest circus. Because I’ve already got one level.” They come back in one day, she says, “Listen, three levels is the best you’re going to get.” She said, “So I guess you’ll be moved back here. We’ll go to the hearing.” I said, “No, no, no, I’ll take three levels.” And she goes, “What are you talking?” She said, “You said four levels. You said Frank wouldn’t let you take anything less than four.” I said, “No. Frank said to tell you four. I was happy with three. I wanted you to argue for four. I’m good with three. I’m out of here in a year.”
And I don’t want to be moved back. I don’t want to have to get on that bus. Do you know what it’s like to be moved? It’s horrible. So I said, “I just want the three levels.” Then we argue about the wording for about two, three months, and then they file it. And then I get five years knocked off my sentence because three levels at the level I was at now, isn’t seven years. Every level you get a little less time, so I get five years off. So now I’ve got 12 years knocked off my sentence.
At this point I maybe have a year and a half to go, and that’s doable. So I was super, super happy. And I’m going to tell you something, and I’m sorry bro, but every time I think about it and I just feel like I have to say it, Frank [inaudible 05:33:28] insane, but I didn’t have a fucking prayer without that guy. And as crazy as he is, as much of a pain in the ass as he was, I could never repay him, bro. I shouldn’t be here. I’m supposed to be in prison right now. My out date was 2030 without that guy.
Interviewer
Where is he know?
Where is he know?
Matthew Cox
He got himself out. He didn’t do all that time, he got himself out. I don’t even know how he did it. They’ve even thrown him back in prison again for six months and he got himself out again. He’s insane. He’s incredible. He’s insane but he’s incredible.
He got himself out. He didn’t do all that time, he got himself out. I don’t even know how he did it. They’ve even thrown him back in prison again for six months and he got himself out again. He’s insane. He’s incredible. He’s insane but he’s incredible.
Interviewer
Is he really that insane?
Is he really that insane?
Matthew Cox
He’s in Orlando.
He’s in Orlando.
Interviewer
I mean, he seems like a good lawyer and a good man.
I mean, he seems like a good lawyer and a good man.
Matthew Cox
Look, he’s great. He’s great. I mean, there’s no doubt in my mind I would be in prison right now if it wasn’t for him.
Look, he’s great. He’s great. I mean, there’s no doubt in my mind I would be in prison right now if it wasn’t for him.
Interviewer
And he’s done this for others?
And he’s done this for others?
Matthew Cox
Walk people right out. 10 years off, five years off, nine years off, 10 years. And I didn’t pay for one thing. I didn’t pay for my stamps, he paid for everything.
Walk people right out. 10 years off, five years off, nine years off, 10 years. And I didn’t pay for one thing. I didn’t pay for my stamps, he paid for everything.
Interviewer
It sounds like the other lawyers don’t really believe it’s possible, and he does. It’s interesting.
It sounds like the other lawyers don’t really believe it’s possible, and he does. It’s interesting.
Matthew Cox
Well, I think he’s willing to badger them into doing what they should’ve done to begin with. I actually wrote a book about it, which he loved.
Well, I think he’s willing to badger them into doing what they should’ve done to begin with. I actually wrote a book about it, which he loved.
Interviewer
About him.
About him.
Matthew Cox
About him and his story. It’s so over the top, what happened with him. I mean, literally tried to take over the Congo. I mean, there’s a documentary about it. It’s called 9 Days in the Congo. It’s an insane story. It’s one of those stories that’s just like, how is this not a movie?
About him and his story. It’s so over the top, what happened with him. I mean, literally tried to take over the Congo. I mean, there’s a documentary about it. It’s called 9 Days in the Congo. It’s an insane story. It’s one of those stories that’s just like, how is this not a movie?
Interviewer
It’s not a movie yet.
It’s not a movie yet.
Matthew Cox
No. I’ve pitched it several times and it would be great. So I wrote a synopsis and I turned that into a book.
No. I’ve pitched it several times and it would be great. So I wrote a synopsis and I turned that into a book.
Interviewer
What’s the name of the book?
What’s the name of the book?
Matthew Cox
Oh, It’s Insanity.
Oh, It’s Insanity.
Interviewer
It’s Insanity.
It’s Insanity.
Freedom
Matthew Cox
Yeah. But about it, like a year and a half later, I ended up getting out of prison and I went to the halfway house.
Yeah. But about it, like a year and a half later, I ended up getting out of prison and I went to the halfway house.
Interviewer
What’d that feel like, freedom?
What’d that feel like, freedom?
Matthew Cox
Oh, this is bad, bro. This is bad. I remember when I was leaving the prison… I met some great guys in prison, which is a weird thing to say. But I met better people in prison than I’d ever met outside prison, at that low. I mean, because it was the first time I actually had friends. I really had someone that wanted to hang out with me, just to hang. I didn’t have anything to offer them. I can’t make you any money, I can’t do anything for you. We’re just hanging out because we like to laugh or we have things in common or we are fascinated by each other, or we just have a good time and fun.
Oh, this is bad, bro. This is bad. I remember when I was leaving the prison… I met some great guys in prison, which is a weird thing to say. But I met better people in prison than I’d ever met outside prison, at that low. I mean, because it was the first time I actually had friends. I really had someone that wanted to hang out with me, just to hang. I didn’t have anything to offer them. I can’t make you any money, I can’t do anything for you. We’re just hanging out because we like to laugh or we have things in common or we are fascinated by each other, or we just have a good time and fun.
So when I was leaving, I remember my mom showed up and my brother showed up and they picked me up, and we were driving off. I remember looking back at the prison and my brother said, “I’ll bet you’re glad to leave that behind you,” and I started crying. It’s like nobody talked. It was so uncomfortable. I started crying and it wasn’t because I was like, “Oh, it’s over.” It was like survivor’s guilt. Like I was leaving all of my friends and I felt so bad that I was leaving them.
But I went to the halfway house and I had four… When I was getting out, I remember joking that I had exhausted my Trulincs account, my inmate account, I’d exhausted it. I had nothing, I had 18 cents, I couldn’t even figure out how to spend it. And they give you a debit card when you leave, and they charge you every time you use the card. I don’t even have enough to spend the 18 cents because the charge is like $3. So I was like, “Yeah, yeah.” I was like, “I wonder if they’ll still giving my debit card.” And I’m laughing. Everybody’s like, “What are you going to eat? What are you this, what are that?” And my one buddy looked at me, he was like, ‘you can’t go to the halfway house with nothing, bro.” And I was like, “No, it’s cool.” I said, “No, it’s cool.” I said, “No, it’s cool.” I said, “I want to start at the bottom. I’ve got that coming. I got working at McDonald’s coming, so I’m going to work at McDonald’s. I don’t give a fuck.” And he was like, “Well, I think you’re going to need to buy clothes.” I said, “Oh,” I said, “It’s at the Goodwill. They give you a bunch of crap if you don’t have anything, if you’re indigent.” And I said, “I’m indigent.”
And a couple of days before I’m leaving, $400 ends up on my account. And I was like, “What the fuck?” And it was from a buddy of mine. And I go to him, my buddy Tommy, and I was like, “Tommy,” I go, “Did you put 400 on my account?” And he said, “I can’t let you go with nothing, bro.” So I get to the halfway house and I go to Walmart and I buy $300 worth of clothes at Walmart. I’ve never been in a Walmart. I go to Super Walmart, it’s huge. I go there and I buy a bunch of clothes and I buy about 300 bucks worth of clothes, and I still have some of the blue jeans. To this day I still wear some of the blue jeans.
I stayed in the halfway house and I called a buddy of mine named Trion, Trion Colta, and he owns a gym. And I grew up with him. His whole family, they own a bunch of gyms. And I called him and I said, “Hey man, I’m in the halfway house.” And he was like, “Hey, what’s going on?” He said, “Can I do anything for you?” And I was like, “I mean, I need a job.” I didn’t think he was going to give me a job. He goes, “Bro, you’re hired. I’ll give you a job.” He said, “Minimum wage.” I said, “That’s fine. If I can stay out of here…” You can work 80 hours a week. I was like, “If I can just stay out of here 80 hours and you pay me minimum wage.” He goes, “Oh, hell yeah, perfect.”
So I’m at the gym and I got free reign. So I’m playing on my computer, goofing off all day. And my buddy Pete, who’s still locked up, he’s texting me and calling me, and he’s like… Not texting me, he’s emailing me through the Corrlinks system. And he calls me periodically, he’s like, “Have you started a website?” Because one of the things I was going to do when I got out was I was going to start a website with all these stories that I’d written. And I was like, “No, Pete, I can’t. I don’t have a computer.” He’s like, “Well, how much is a computer?” I was like, “I don’t know, they’re like 300 bucks.”
I said, “I could probably get a used Apple MacBook, like a five-year-old MacBook or something, I don’t know, for $350, whatever.” But he was like, “Okay, so that’s all you need, 300 bucks.” I go, “No, no, no, no, no,” I said, “It’s not 300 bucks, bro. It’s 300 bucks plus it’s getting a WordPress website,” which I said costs money. “Plus it’s hiring somebody to help me figure it out because I’m inept. I don’t know how anything works.” So he, “Okay.” And I said, “Plus, I need this. Plus I need a bunch of stuff. I need $600 for this. I need 300 for this. I need 500 for this. I need a thousand dollars for this.”
And he goes, “Okay.” He said, “I’ll get you… Okay, I got it.” So he reads off a list, he goes, “I got you.” Pete doesn’t have any money. And I go, “How are you going to give me any money?” He goes, “Every day I walk across the compound, people stop me and say, ‘How’s Cox doing?’ And I say, ‘Oh, he’s okay.’ And they say, ‘Does he need anything?’ And I say, ‘No, no, he’s good.'” He said, “I’m going to start telling these fuckers, ‘Yeah, yeah, he needs something. You want to do something for him? Here’s what he needs.'”
I ended up getting two laptops sent to me. I got the computer program Final Cut Pro. I had guys in prison cutting me checks so that I could build a website and put all these stories on the website. So I start putting the website… And I don’t know what I’m doing. I put them on the website slowly, it takes forever. I’m putting pictures up, I’m trying to figure out how Photoshop works, all this stuff. The whole time I wanted to start… Because the last, when I was just getting out of prison, everybody kept telling me, “Bro, you got to start a podcast. You got to start a true crime podcast.” And I don’t know what a podcast is. The term podcast came into existence in 2009 when I’d been locked up three years. I’d never been on YouTube.
So by the time I get out, the last year or two, guys are coming up to me, giving me magazines, like, “This is what a pod… You need to read… Look, true crime’s huge.” And you have to think, guys are asking me every couple of days, “Cox, you got any stories?” And I’m like, “Yeah, yeah, did you read Cash and Coke?” And they’re like, ” Is that the one with the guys are robbing the drug dealer?” “Yeah.” “Oh no, no, I read that one.” “Did you read this one?” “No, no, I haven’t read that, that’s the one with the guy…” And I’m like, “Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.”
So I’m giving these little stories and then they’d come back and give them to me. You don’t have anything in there, so this is guys that would never read in their life, are reading. And I’m writing about the guy in B2, the guy in C1. So I put up the whole thing and well, anyway, they’re all telling me do a true crime podcast. True crime podcast. I don’t really know what that is, but by now I’m starting to listen to them on YouTube, Serial and Cold Case Files, that kind of stuff.
And I think that’s what I want to do. Well, my buddy Trion says, “There’s a guy named Danny Jones that runs a podcast called Koncrete, and it’s in St. Petersburg, and he lives a couple of miles from me. I see him all the time.” And I went, “Okay.” And he said, “You should email him. He’s got a guy on there all the time that does real estate.” And I go, “I just got out of prison for bank fraud related to real estate. He doesn’t want to interview me.” He goes, “Well, maybe he does. Maybe you could ask him about starting a podcast.”
Okay. So I sent him an email. I remember Danny called me and he said, “Hey, is this Matt Cox?” I was like, “Yeah, this is Matt.” He’s like, “I got your email. This is Danny Jones.” And I was like, “Okay.” And he says, “Yeah, I got your email, bro.” He goes, “This is a good fucking email.” I was like, “What?” He goes, “I get a lot of emails, bro.” He said, “That is a…”
Interviewer
This is a good one.
This is a good one.
Matthew Cox
“That’s a good one. That was really good. I mean, that was well written.” He’s like, “I immediately knew I had to talk to you.” And I said, “Oh, okay.” Because I think I started off with, “Hey, my name’s Matt Cox, and I’m a conman.”
“That’s a good one. That was really good. I mean, that was well written.” He’s like, “I immediately knew I had to talk to you.” And I said, “Oh, okay.” Because I think I started off with, “Hey, my name’s Matt Cox, and I’m a conman.”
Interviewer
Good opening.
Good opening.
Matthew Cox
“Who was recently released from federal prison.” And so he was like, “Oh yeah, I mean, who says that?” So anyway, he said, “Well, what’s going on?” I said, “Well…” And I tell him what’s going on. I want to start a podcast, blah, blah, blah. And Danny, he listens to me for 30 minutes to an hour, and, “I’ve heard this and this.” And he’s like, “Yeah, right. YouTube’s not really like that, and that’s not really how we do it. And you’re going to have to get a production company,” and blah, blah, blah. He goes, “But you know what? What you really need to do is to see if people are even interested in you or your story, or you’re able to talk. You should come on my show.” Shameless, trying to get some content.
“Who was recently released from federal prison.” And so he was like, “Oh yeah, I mean, who says that?” So anyway, he said, “Well, what’s going on?” I said, “Well…” And I tell him what’s going on. I want to start a podcast, blah, blah, blah. And Danny, he listens to me for 30 minutes to an hour, and, “I’ve heard this and this.” And he’s like, “Yeah, right. YouTube’s not really like that, and that’s not really how we do it. And you’re going to have to get a production company,” and blah, blah, blah. He goes, “But you know what? What you really need to do is to see if people are even interested in you or your story, or you’re able to talk. You should come on my show.” Shameless, trying to get some content.
Interviewer
Well, I mean, so as I told you offline, Danny and Koncrete podcast is really good, so people should definitely listen to it. But yeah, I mean, it turns out people do like listening to you.
Well, I mean, so as I told you offline, Danny and Koncrete podcast is really good, so people should definitely listen to it. But yeah, I mean, it turns out people do like listening to you.
Matthew Cox
Turns out.
Turns out.
Interviewer
I mean, you’re good at telling stories.
I mean, you’re good at telling stories.
Matthew Cox
Well, anyway, by the time I got… I couldn’t do Danny’s podcast. I was like, “I can’t do it, bro. I’m in the halfway house, so maybe…” I get out of the halfway house and a couple of months go by. Maybe two months, three months go by, and one day I get a phone call from Danny. He’s like, “Bro, you’re out of the halfway house, right?” Because I told him I got out in July, it was like October, November. I’m like, “Right.” He’s like, “Listen, I had a guest fall through. I got nobody. I need you to come on. I answered all your questions.” I’d called him five, six times. “You said…” And I was like, “Fuck it, I’ll do it.”
Well, anyway, by the time I got… I couldn’t do Danny’s podcast. I was like, “I can’t do it, bro. I’m in the halfway house, so maybe…” I get out of the halfway house and a couple of months go by. Maybe two months, three months go by, and one day I get a phone call from Danny. He’s like, “Bro, you’re out of the halfway house, right?” Because I told him I got out in July, it was like October, November. I’m like, “Right.” He’s like, “Listen, I had a guest fall through. I got nobody. I need you to come on. I answered all your questions.” I’d called him five, six times. “You said…” And I was like, “Fuck it, I’ll do it.”
That video got 2 million views. Then I did Patrick Bet-David flew me out. Then I did Soft White Underbelly, then I did Vlad, people started… I’m sorry, and then it just blew up. Then people started asking me to come and talk for no reason, which was crazy. But you were saying, I’m sorry?
Family
Interviewer
Is your dad still with us?
Is your dad still with us?
Matthew Cox
No, he died when I was in prison. He came to see me two or three times.
No, he died when I was in prison. He came to see me two or three times.
Interviewer
When is the first time he found out that you were doing fraud?
When is the first time he found out that you were doing fraud?
Matthew Cox
The first time I got in trouble.
The first time I got in trouble.
Interviewer
When you got the probation?
When you got the probation?
Matthew Cox
Yeah, because I had to explain that something’s happening. I didn’t want him to hear it from anybody else.
Yeah, because I had to explain that something’s happening. I didn’t want him to hear it from anybody else.
Interviewer
So you talked to him directly about it?
So you talked to him directly about it?
Matthew Cox
Super disappointed.
Super disappointed.
Interviewer
Did he ever tell you he loves you after that?
Did he ever tell you he loves you after that?
Matthew Cox
After I got the 26 years and the government decided they weren’t going to indict anybody, and I really was like, “Wow, this is it. You’re done.” He came to see me, but just by himself. And I remember when he came to see me, it was by himself. He never came by himself. So I remember thinking something happened to my mom. And as soon as he walked in, I go, “What happened?” I go, “Where’s mom?” And he goes, “Oh no, she’s fine. She’s fine.” And he sat down with me and he said, “How are you doing?” I was like, “I’m good.”
After I got the 26 years and the government decided they weren’t going to indict anybody, and I really was like, “Wow, this is it. You’re done.” He came to see me, but just by himself. And I remember when he came to see me, it was by himself. He never came by himself. So I remember thinking something happened to my mom. And as soon as he walked in, I go, “What happened?” I go, “Where’s mom?” And he goes, “Oh no, she’s fine. She’s fine.” And he sat down with me and he said, “How are you doing?” I was like, “I’m good.”
He was getting sick. He was getting older. So we talked for a little bit just about the situation. And I was like, “Yeah.” He’s like, “Well, what are you going to do?” And I was like, “There’s nothing I can do. I’ve called multiple attorneys, I’ve talked to people, there’s nothing I can do.” And he was like, “You’re going to figure it out.” He said, “You’re clever and you’re smart, and you’re not going to do all of that time.” And I was like, “I’m done. It’s over. I’m going to get out of here when I’m 60 if I behave myself. And if I don’t, I’ll be 64.” And he was like, “That’s not going to happen.”
I think that was the first time he… I knew he was proud of me when I was making money, but he never said it. You got the look like he was impressed. But we were sitting there and I remember he said… Because it’s the only time I can ever remember him saying he was proud of me. And I remember he said, “You’re going to figure this out.” He said, “I’m not proud of where you ended up, but you’ve done amazing things.” He said, “I wish you’d use your talents for something different, but you’ve done things that I could’ve never done, and you’ve led an amazing, adventurous life, and I’m proud of you.”
Interviewer
I wish he could see you now.
I wish he could see you now.
Matthew Cox
My mom saw me. My mom’s funny because my mom came to see me. My mom’s a gangster. My mom came to see me every two weeks for 13 years. She missed about a month and a half when she had a stroke and ended up in a wheelchair. Then she came in the wheelchair, and she would make my brother bring her. My brother and sister would be like, “Mom, are you sure you want to go? It’s so hard to… It’s such a long drive and you get so tired.” ” Well, I’ll sleep in the car.” “I know, but then we have to wait in the waiting area forever and it takes forever.” “Well, I’m in the wheelchair, so I’m fine.” “Well, I know, but it’s such a pain to get in and out, and in and out.” She goes, “I’m going to see my son and you’re taking me.”
My mom saw me. My mom’s funny because my mom came to see me. My mom’s a gangster. My mom came to see me every two weeks for 13 years. She missed about a month and a half when she had a stroke and ended up in a wheelchair. Then she came in the wheelchair, and she would make my brother bring her. My brother and sister would be like, “Mom, are you sure you want to go? It’s so hard to… It’s such a long drive and you get so tired.” ” Well, I’ll sleep in the car.” “I know, but then we have to wait in the waiting area forever and it takes forever.” “Well, I’m in the wheelchair, so I’m fine.” “Well, I know, but it’s such a pain to get in and out, and in and out.” She goes, “I’m going to see my son and you’re taking me.”
Interviewer
I love it.
I love it.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, she was something else. And I always say, if I had to say… I don’t think about all the things I did to get out. I know there’s all these guys that are like, “Oh, I wouldn’t have done that. I’d have been a standup guy. And I’d have been…” Well, good for fucking you, bro. I wanted to get out. I wanted out. And the icing on the cake of me getting out, and I would’ve cut every motherfucker’s head in that prison off. I was able to get out just in time to spend the last year and a half of my mother’s life with her.
Yeah, she was something else. And I always say, if I had to say… I don’t think about all the things I did to get out. I know there’s all these guys that are like, “Oh, I wouldn’t have done that. I’d have been a standup guy. And I’d have been…” Well, good for fucking you, bro. I wanted to get out. I wanted out. And the icing on the cake of me getting out, and I would’ve cut every motherfucker’s head in that prison off. I was able to get out just in time to spend the last year and a half of my mother’s life with her.
I saw her two or three times a week, took her to dinner once a week. Was able to go on walks with her in her wheelchair. I was sitting right next to her when she had her final stroke. I held her hand when she took her last breath. So if I have to be called a snitch the rest of my life, I don’t give a fuck. I may not deserve more, but she deserved more.
Regret
Interviewer
Do you regret… [inaudible 05:52:39] just look back, would you do any part of your life different?
Do you regret… [inaudible 05:52:39] just look back, would you do any part of your life different?
Matthew Cox
Oh, I’d scrap all this, yeah. Yeah, I’d scrap all this to be… You always hear these guys say, “I wouldn’t change it because it made me the man I am today.” The man I am today is a fucking 54-year- old scumbag, multiple felons, starting my life over broke, living off of scraps, trying to make YouTube work. I’ve got two dead parents. I’m divorced. I have a son that doesn’t talk to me. I have a son that doesn’t talk to me for good reason, not because of a misunderstanding, because he understands. You can’t even argue with him, he’s got a powerful argument. “I don’t want to be a part of this guy’s life. He’s a scumbag. He stole money. He went on the run. He abandoned me when I was three years old. I don’t want anything to do with him.”
Oh, I’d scrap all this, yeah. Yeah, I’d scrap all this to be… You always hear these guys say, “I wouldn’t change it because it made me the man I am today.” The man I am today is a fucking 54-year- old scumbag, multiple felons, starting my life over broke, living off of scraps, trying to make YouTube work. I’ve got two dead parents. I’m divorced. I have a son that doesn’t talk to me. I have a son that doesn’t talk to me for good reason, not because of a misunderstanding, because he understands. You can’t even argue with him, he’s got a powerful argument. “I don’t want to be a part of this guy’s life. He’s a scumbag. He stole money. He went on the run. He abandoned me when I was three years old. I don’t want anything to do with him.”
I get it. And I’ve tried to do all the right things. I wrote the letters. I drew him pictures. I’ve tried to call and it’s not happening. I would do anything to go back and just be that regular, middle class guy with the two kids and the wife, working a regular job. That’s a good life. That’s a good person. I just made one arrogant decision after another, after another until it snowballed and I couldn’t take it back. And then I did everything I could. And if I wasn’t the calculating, backstabbing scumbag motherfucker that I can be, I’d be in prison right now. Sorry.
So yeah, yeah, I would much rather be a CPA right now. I would much rather… Should’ve stuck with being an insurance adjuster or something. I mean, I never should’ve whited that 30 day [inaudible 05:55:04] out. Never. It was a mistake.
Interviewer
That was your first mistake.
That was your first mistake.
Matthew Cox
That was a huge mistake.
That was a huge mistake.
Interviewer
You think your son will forgive you?
You think your son will forgive you?
Matthew Cox
No. Unfortunately, according to my ex-wife and my sister, and everybody that he is a part of their lives. And I’ve seen him. My mother’s funeral, I saw him. I’ve seen him at several functions. You look across and he looks right through me. Everybody says, “He’s just like you. He’s just like you.” And everybody says I’m just like my dad. I’ve never smoked a cigarette. I’ve never drank alcohol, not a drop. Never done any drugs because my dad was an alcoholic and my dad smoked two packs a day, and everything in our house reeked of nicotine. And I’ve never smoked.
No. Unfortunately, according to my ex-wife and my sister, and everybody that he is a part of their lives. And I’ve seen him. My mother’s funeral, I saw him. I’ve seen him at several functions. You look across and he looks right through me. Everybody says, “He’s just like you. He’s just like you.” And everybody says I’m just like my dad. I’ve never smoked a cigarette. I’ve never drank alcohol, not a drop. Never done any drugs because my dad was an alcoholic and my dad smoked two packs a day, and everything in our house reeked of nicotine. And I’ve never smoked.
And my dad was a pill head. He was always on some kind of prescription medication. I didn’t want to be that person. And one day I drew a line in the sand and I wouldn’t do it. And I think he’s drawn a line in the sand and he’s decided, “This is the hill I’m going to die on and I’m not going to back off it.” And the thing is, my ex-wife tells him, “He’s a good person, you should be in his life.” His father, because he was adopted. When I was in prison they adopted him. Nick is his dad. Nick has told him. Nick came to see me when I was in prison. Nick has told him like, “Hey, this is a mistake. You’re making a mistake.” Everybody that knows me, knows him, and he has said no. So I fully believe it’s no. I mean, I hope it’s not.
Interviewer
Well, I hope he forgives you. I think there’s a lot of good in you, despite you calling yourself a scumbag over and over in this podcast.
Well, I hope he forgives you. I think there’s a lot of good in you, despite you calling yourself a scumbag over and over in this podcast.
Matthew Cox
That keeps bothering you, you mentioned that earlier.
That keeps bothering you, you mentioned that earlier.
Interviewer
What advice would you give to young people, given that you’ve lived quite a non-standard life? What advice would you give them, how to live a life they can be proud of?
What advice would you give to young people, given that you’ve lived quite a non-standard life? What advice would you give them, how to live a life they can be proud of?
Matthew Cox
I mean, I don’t know if I’m in a position that anybody would listen to me. And I don’t have any advice that I don’t think a father would give you, and it’s like work hard, be appreciative. I mean, things are so good out here. I hear people complain all the time. And I think a huge part of just being happy is being appreciative. I didn’t appreciate anything. This is so cliche, but when I had all the money in the world, I was miserable. But when I got out with nothing, I was happier in prison with nothing than I was with two or $3 million prior to prison, and I’m dating a chick I never should’ve been dating, driving a sports car, vacationing all over the world, miserable. I’m crying, driving away from prison because I already miss my friends. You could’ve never told me that was going to happen.
I mean, I don’t know if I’m in a position that anybody would listen to me. And I don’t have any advice that I don’t think a father would give you, and it’s like work hard, be appreciative. I mean, things are so good out here. I hear people complain all the time. And I think a huge part of just being happy is being appreciative. I didn’t appreciate anything. This is so cliche, but when I had all the money in the world, I was miserable. But when I got out with nothing, I was happier in prison with nothing than I was with two or $3 million prior to prison, and I’m dating a chick I never should’ve been dating, driving a sports car, vacationing all over the world, miserable. I’m crying, driving away from prison because I already miss my friends. You could’ve never told me that was going to happen.
Interviewer
Turns out money, in fact does not buy happiness.
Turns out money, in fact does not buy happiness.
Matthew Cox
No. And it is such a cliche, right? But it’s so true.
No. And it is such a cliche, right? But it’s so true.
Interviewer
Crying, driving away from prison. Yeah.
Crying, driving away from prison. Yeah.
Matthew Cox
You know what? I met my wife in the halfway house. She had just gotten out of prison. She was in the halfway house with me. She just did five years for a meth conspiracy. I never would’ve met her if I didn’t go to prison.
You know what? I met my wife in the halfway house. She had just gotten out of prison. She was in the halfway house with me. She just did five years for a meth conspiracy. I never would’ve met her if I didn’t go to prison.
Interviewer
And now your date night is hunting alligators together.
And now your date night is hunting alligators together.
Matthew Cox
Yeah, that was a month or so ago.
Yeah, that was a month or so ago.
Interviewer
This is Florida, folks. This is what badass people do in Florida. Hog hunting.
This is Florida, folks. This is what badass people do in Florida. Hog hunting.
Matthew Cox
My wife is a former… She was an MP in the military. She hunted, she ran a hog hunting tour guide service for six years, went to prison for five years. Got out, and then now she’s a marine mechanic. And yeah, our date night the other night was we went in the middle of the night, went to Lake Okeechobee and went alligator hunting.
My wife is a former… She was an MP in the military. She hunted, she ran a hog hunting tour guide service for six years, went to prison for five years. Got out, and then now she’s a marine mechanic. And yeah, our date night the other night was we went in the middle of the night, went to Lake Okeechobee and went alligator hunting.
Interviewer
And if I may say so, she’s quite beautiful.
And if I may say so, she’s quite beautiful.
Matthew Cox
Thank you. I did nice. She didn’t want to date me at the halfway house too. I kept saying, “I feel like you’re sweet on me.” She’s like, “I’m not. I’m not. I make fun of guys like you. You’re a city boy.” I’m like, “I don’t know. I feel like…”
Thank you. I did nice. She didn’t want to date me at the halfway house too. I kept saying, “I feel like you’re sweet on me.” She’s like, “I’m not. I’m not. I make fun of guys like you. You’re a city boy.” I’m like, “I don’t know. I feel like…”
Interviewer
Well, you wore her down.
Well, you wore her down.
Matthew Cox
That’s exactly what I did.
That’s exactly what I did.
Interviewer
Yeah, it’s that charisma. It always works. Well, Matt, thank you for being so honest. Thank you for being who you are. I do think there’s a lot of good in you. And thank you for telling your story and the story of others who’ve made mistakes in their life. Thank you for talking today.
Yeah, it’s that charisma. It always works. Well, Matt, thank you for being so honest. Thank you for being who you are. I do think there’s a lot of good in you. And thank you for telling your story and the story of others who’ve made mistakes in their life. Thank you for talking today.
Matthew Cox
I appreciate you having me on.
I appreciate you having me on.
Interviewer
That was a really short conversation.
That was a really short conversation.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Matthew Cox. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Mario Puzo, author of The Godfather, “Behind every successful fortune, there’s a crime.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Tal Wilkenfeld: Music, Guitar, Bass, Jeff Beck, Prince, and Leonard Cohen | Lex Fridman Podcast #408
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #408 with Tal Wilkenfeld.
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Table of Contents
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This was a fun and fascinating conversation. This is the Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear, dear friends, here’s Tal Wilkenfeld.
There’s a legendary video of you playing with Jeff Beck. We’re actually watching it in the background now. So for people who don’t know, Jeff is one of the greatest guitarists ever. So you’re playing with him at the 2007 Crossroads Festival, and people should definitely watch that video. You were killing it on the bass. Look at that face. Were you scared? What was that experience like? Were you nervous? You don’t look nervous. Confident?
So no, I was excited and passionate and having the best time. And also the fact that he gave me this solo, the context of this performance is that this was a guitar festival. It’s one of the biggest guitar festivals in the world because it’s Eric Clapton’s festival, and there’s 400 guitarists that are all playing solos all night. And we were towards the end of the night, and I could tell Jeff got a kick out of, I’m not going to solo on one of my most well-known songs, Cause We’ve Ended as Lovers. Well, Stevie Wonder wrote it, but people know Jeff for that song and his solo on it. It’s like, “I’m going to give it to my bass player.” And he did, and like-
And so literally when the plane landed, I went straight into an ambulance into a hospital overnight. The manager picked me up and I showed up at Jeff’s door, which was a three-hour drive through windy country roads, and he answered the door, and he is like, “Okay, you’re ready to play?” So we went upstairs and started rattling off the set. And when it came to this song, Cause We’ve Ended as Lovers, he just said solo, and he loved it and kept the solo in it. So that’s how, there was no bass solo before I was playing in his band. So this whole thing was kind of new.
And so I don’t care about those few little things. I care about the overall expression. And then there’s other gigs that, for instance, if I got called for a pop or a country session or a show. In those environments, they may want you to play safe, just play the part and play it with a great groove and time and great dynamics and don’t really veer away from the part and stuff. And I’ve done plenty of those gigs too. It’s just a different hat you put on.
And so I sat on this road case, everyone was out celebrating. I sat this road case, look with a sad face, boo-hoo. And then Claude Nobs, the owner of the whole festival, came out to me. He’s like, “Tal, what’s wrong?” And I’m like, “I played a bad note.” I was such a child. And he said all this wise stuff that Miles Davis had imparted to him and it fully cheered me up. He’s like, “Is there anything that would make you feel better?” And I was like, “Caviar?” The dude came back 10 minutes later with this huge thing.
With this, when Prince died out of the blue in mid 2016, and then Leonard Cohen died in November, that just tore me to shreds because Leonard Cohen was not just someone that profoundly inspired me musically and lyrically, but spiritually, we had a very deep connection. And that was the basis of a lot of our conversation was spirituality. And so at that time, I felt like a piece of me went missing. And that was a very long process where I just stayed in my place and didn’t want to play a note of music. I kind of wanted to just get rid of all my stuff. So I had a friend come over and he’s like, “You should just, why don’t you come to the Comedy Store?” I’m like, “Comedy Store? What am I going to go to some store and buy clown suits? What are you talking about? What’s a Comedy Store?” He’s like, “No, no, no. The Comedy Store, the place where comedians go.”
I’m like, “Okay, well, I’ve never seen standup. I’ve seen Seinfeld on TV. That’s the extent of my standup experience.” So he took me to the Comedy Store and every single one of those comedians embraced me like I was family. It didn’t even take a day. I was part of the family and I made 25 best friends, and I ended up throwing all my stuff in storage and finding a little room to stay in where I rented my gear out and my rent paying was me loaning the gear. I didn’t want any responsibilities, financial, I just wanted to be completely free so that I could just process it and not feel like I had to commit to anything work-wise or creatively. I just wanted to unplug.
And so this was a fun and very different way to unplug, because previously I may have just gone to a monastery and spent weeks at a monastery or months, but in this case I was like, “You know what? This is a different kind of experience. I’m going to just hang out with comedians and stay in this room.”
And I learned a lot. It changed my life. I learned to laugh at absolutely anything, everything. I mean, my grandpa had a really great sense of humor too. My grandpa was a Holocaust survivor, and he could just laugh at anything. And so I already kind of have that in me. But being around all these comedians just kind of exaggerated that for me, and that really changed things for me for the better. So then when Jeff Beck died, it was like, “Okay, I’ve got these tools. I know what this is and I’m going to go through it again, and I’m going to be on tour with Incubus in two days.”
So Mike Dirnt from Green Day, he called me up and he said, “Hey, I know you’re going through a lot.” And I said, “I don’t even know what I’m going to play. I really want a vintage jazz bass for this, and I only have a seventies one that I don’t really think is appropriate. I really need a sixties one, blah, blah, blah.” And Mike’s like, “I’m going to hook you up.” He showed up to my place the next day with a truckload of old P basses and jazz basses and brought them all into my studio, and I’m playing them.
And then I pull one out of the case and it’s Olympic White, just like Jeff Beck and I play it. And not only did I get goosebumps and started crying, but I looked over at Mike and same thing was happening, and he’s like, “I guess Jeff might be happy about this.” And he’s like, “Well, I didn’t want to let this one go. I was just trying to cheer you up a bit and maybe loan it to you for the tour, but if you really want it’s yours.” And I was like, “Oh my God, this is… Mike Dirnt is the nicest guy ever.”
So that happened. So that bass’ name is Jeff, and it’s a white jazz bass, and I played it on the Incubus tour. But yeah, I do feel like I’m more equipped to handle grief now.
It’s very different from say somebody that is an instrumental guitarist or something like that, that they’re more focused on, whether it’s a kinesthetic thing or a physical thing or whatever it is. They’re not quite doing the observational thing in the same way. So I just appreciate, my favorite thing to do is go on and laugh, especially because I can tend to be pretty analytical and be in my head. So anything that just kind of lets me be in my heart and just enjoy life is great.
I like it when everything and everyone is taken into account. It doesn’t matter where you’re coming from, that there is a way to be self-realized, self-actualized. There are self-actualized beings from all walks of life with very, very different paths. There’s no one path. In this particular retreat I do, there’s a lot of silent sits, and then there’s some guided meditations. But I’ve tried a lot of different avenues, and they’re all great. I wouldn’t just say, just try this one thing. I’ve studied the Upanishads with Vedanta teachers, and gone through those texts for months and months, and stayed at monasteries. And how they break it down makes total sense to my mind and heart. And more importantly than my mind, my inner knowing, it resonates.
And in terms of learning fast, because I had to try to absorb a lot of information in a short amount of time when I did have the instrument, I kind of would do things in bursts. Even in that half an hour, I would just play for a couple minutes, and then I’d stop for a minute. And then I’d do it again, and I noticed there was a huge difference between the first time and the second time. Whereas if I just kept repeating stuff, it would be much slower.
So that’s the kind of thing with teachers that can be either really, really helpful and great or really not great. I’m primarily self-taught. I’ve had amazing mentors of all walks of life, and I think I’m unbelievably blessed that my mentors are some of my favorite musicians on Earth, whether it’s Leonard Cohen or Jeff Beck or Wayne Shorter, whoever these people are, they are my favorite musicians. So not everyone has that opportunity, but what the opportunity that we have now that I didn’t have when I was starting is that everything’s on YouTube. Every interview with every genius. You don’t need to necessarily have these people in person now. I mean, and then I’ll say to that, yes and no. I agree with myself, and then I don’t agree with myself. And the reason is I do believe that there is something that happens when you’re in person with a master in some cases, that there is something transferred that is not intellectual, it’s not spoken, it’s something else that happens, that can happen, that I’ve experienced, and I really value that.
But I don’t like twists for the sake of twists either. I like twists because I want to hear something that might be fresh. But when someone does something just to be hip, it’s annoying to me. I think you can hear the difference. It’s like when people, they write in odd time signatures or they write all these riffs just because they can, just because they have the chops to do it or they know how to play in 11/16 and whatever. But if it’s not actually creating a piece of music that’s going to move somebody, then why are you doing it? And so I think a lot of the questions I’m asking myself when I’m approaching a song or mainly philosophical and aesthetic.
And then take one, I would say 80% of the time, take one has the most gold and there might be a mistake or two or someone forgot to go to the B section and you might want to punch that in so that you’re hitting the right chord. But all the magic is in that take. And then sometimes it happens where it’s like you go, it’s like we’re rehearsing and take 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and then you’re thinking about it too much and then you go and you have a dinner and you come back and the next take one after dinner is the one. It’s usually after there’s some sort of a break, but obviously there’s exceptions to that rule. Sometimes it’s take two, or three.
And he’s like, well, sounds like, because we had a discussion about drumming, sounds like you’re particular about drummers. So why don’t you find us the drummer and I’ll trust you to find the drummer. You can audition some people. Send me some recordings, maybe your two favorites, and I’ll pick out of the two or something. So I did that. Went on a journey, found a couple of guys. He picked the one. We went in and he basically just would be like okay, so the A section’s going to go like this, and then the B section, I think we’re going to go to G, and then the bridge, I might go to B flat, but maybe I’ll hold off and da, da, da. Okay, let’s go 1, 2, 3, 4. And then we recorded it to tape. There was no punch. He did not want me to punch anything.
There was one song called Same Page, Different Book. And he talked through it just like he did. And then he had me soloing between each phrase like little fills. I didn’t know that that was going to come up. And he loved that. He loved to have me on the edge of my seat falling off the cliff. That was my first real falling off a cliff moment from somebody else holding me at the edge of the cliff. You know what I mean? Now I just do it on my own because it’s so fun and it makes sense. It’s the best thing for the music.
All my mentors were just that for me. They didn’t tell me to do anything. They don’t care, because they’re not… Why do they need to be invested in where I’m going? Only I know where I’m going. So for some mentor to come and be like, “This is what you need to be doing, and practice…” It’s like, but why? What if that’s not my path? That might be your path. So I’m not really… Again, otherwise it feels like a sport, like who can run the fastest race. And it’s like, well, okay, I get that for sport maybe it makes sense to have someone a bit more hardcore. But still, I would say athletes have the same mentality. They’ve got that in them already too. So I think more of a strategic approach to mentorship works really well, and mainly just having an open space and just being available to someone.
And then also, like I was saying, the lyric, what it means to you, which… Poetry is supposed to mean something to everybody different. It’s not supposed to mean one thing. You can’t analyze and be like, “This is what this poet meant.” And like we were talking about with Leonard earlier, it’s like the broader you can leave a lyric, the better. You can appeal to people in so many different ways. And even to the songwriter. I’ll sing some of my songs from five years ago and I’ll be like, “I didn’t even think that it could have meant that, but I guess it does. That’s funny.” I’ll just giggle onstage suddenly, because a lyric will hit me differently, from a different, new experience or something.
(singing)
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:08 – Jeff Beck
- 10:00 – Confidence on stage
- 26:39 – Leonard Cohen
- 34:39 – Taxi Driver
- 46:00 – Songwriting
- 49:40 – How to learn and practice
- 1:08:10 – Slap vs Fingerstyle
- 1:14:33 – Davie504
- 1:18:53 – Prince
- 1:24:30 – Jimi Hendrix
- 1:26:44 – Mentorship
- 1:33:02 – Sad songs
- 1:39:00 – Tal performs Under The Sun (live)
- 1:44:16 – Tal performs Killing Me (live)
Introduction
Tal Wilkenfeld
I am standing on the edge of the cliff the entire night, and if I mess something up, mess it up, what even is a mistake? But if I do a little clunker or whatever it is, it’s like, so what? I wouldn’t have played half the stuff that I’m playing if I wasn’t constantly standing on the edge of the cliff, like wild.
I am standing on the edge of the cliff the entire night, and if I mess something up, mess it up, what even is a mistake? But if I do a little clunker or whatever it is, it’s like, so what? I wouldn’t have played half the stuff that I’m playing if I wasn’t constantly standing on the edge of the cliff, like wild.
Lex Fridman
Why stand at the edge of the cliff?
Why stand at the edge of the cliff?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Because at the edge of the cliff is all possibilities.
Because at the edge of the cliff is all possibilities.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Tal Wilkenfeld, a singer-songwriter, bassist, guitarist, and a true musician who has recorded and performed with many legendary artists, including Jeff Beck, Prince, Eric Clapton, Incubus, Herbie Hancock, Mick Jagger, Jackson Brown, Rod Stewart, David Gilmore, Pharrell, Hans Zimmer, and many, many more.
The following is a conversation with Tal Wilkenfeld, a singer-songwriter, bassist, guitarist, and a true musician who has recorded and performed with many legendary artists, including Jeff Beck, Prince, Eric Clapton, Incubus, Herbie Hancock, Mick Jagger, Jackson Brown, Rod Stewart, David Gilmore, Pharrell, Hans Zimmer, and many, many more.
This was a fun and fascinating conversation. This is the Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear, dear friends, here’s Tal Wilkenfeld.
Jeff Beck
There’s a legendary video of you playing with Jeff Beck. We’re actually watching it in the background now. So for people who don’t know, Jeff is one of the greatest guitarists ever. So you’re playing with him at the 2007 Crossroads Festival, and people should definitely watch that video. You were killing it on the bass. Look at that face. Were you scared? What was that experience like? Were you nervous? You don’t look nervous. Confident?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, I wasn’t nervous. I think that you can get an adrenaline rush before a stage, which is natural, but I think as soon as you bring fear to a bandstand, you’re limiting yourself. You’re walling yourself off from everyone else. If you’re afraid, what is there to be afraid of? You must be afraid of making a mistake, and therefore you’re coming at it as a perfectionist and you can’t come at music that way, or it’s not going to be as expansive and vulnerable and true.
Yeah, I wasn’t nervous. I think that you can get an adrenaline rush before a stage, which is natural, but I think as soon as you bring fear to a bandstand, you’re limiting yourself. You’re walling yourself off from everyone else. If you’re afraid, what is there to be afraid of? You must be afraid of making a mistake, and therefore you’re coming at it as a perfectionist and you can’t come at music that way, or it’s not going to be as expansive and vulnerable and true.
So no, I was excited and passionate and having the best time. And also the fact that he gave me this solo, the context of this performance is that this was a guitar festival. It’s one of the biggest guitar festivals in the world because it’s Eric Clapton’s festival, and there’s 400 guitarists that are all playing solos all night. And we were towards the end of the night, and I could tell Jeff got a kick out of, I’m not going to solo on one of my most well-known songs, Cause We’ve Ended as Lovers. Well, Stevie Wonder wrote it, but people know Jeff for that song and his solo on it. It’s like, “I’m going to give it to my bass player.” And he did, and like-
Lex Fridman
You took it.
You took it.
Tal Wilkenfeld
The fact that he’s bowing, he didn’t have to do that.
The fact that he’s bowing, he didn’t have to do that.
Lex Fridman
But you really stepped up there.
But you really stepped up there.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It just shows what a generous musician he is, and that’s evident in his playing across the board. He is a generous, loving, open musician. He’s not there for himself. He’s there for the music. And he thought, “Well, this would be the perfect musical thing to do.” And it kind of all started when I went to audition for him, which was an interesting experience because I got food poisoning on the plane.
It just shows what a generous musician he is, and that’s evident in his playing across the board. He is a generous, loving, open musician. He’s not there for himself. He’s there for the music. And he thought, “Well, this would be the perfect musical thing to do.” And it kind of all started when I went to audition for him, which was an interesting experience because I got food poisoning on the plane.
And so literally when the plane landed, I went straight into an ambulance into a hospital overnight. The manager picked me up and I showed up at Jeff’s door, which was a three-hour drive through windy country roads, and he answered the door, and he is like, “Okay, you’re ready to play?” So we went upstairs and started rattling off the set. And when it came to this song, Cause We’ve Ended as Lovers, he just said solo, and he loved it and kept the solo in it. So that’s how, there was no bass solo before I was playing in his band. So this whole thing was kind of new.
Lex Fridman
So even with food poisoning, you could step up?
So even with food poisoning, you could step up?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s just like what? Instinct?
That’s just like what? Instinct?
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s just being able to differentiate from the body and from expression, music.
It’s just being able to differentiate from the body and from expression, music.
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting. You said fear walls you off from the other musicians, and what are you afraid of? You’re afraid of making a mistake. Beethoven said, “To play a wrong note is insignificant. To play without passion is inexcusable.” Do you think the old man had a point?
It’s interesting. You said fear walls you off from the other musicians, and what are you afraid of? You’re afraid of making a mistake. Beethoven said, “To play a wrong note is insignificant. To play without passion is inexcusable.” Do you think the old man had a point?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. Different styles of music invite varying degrees of, I would say, uncertainty or unsafety in the way that people might perceive it. So for instance, the tour that I was just on playing Allman Brothers songs, I am standing on the edge of the cliff the entire night, and if I mess something up, mess it up, what even is a mistake? But if I do a little clunker or whatever it is, it’s like, so what? I wouldn’t have played half the stuff that I’m playing if I wasn’t constantly standing on the edge of the cliff, like wild.
Yeah. Different styles of music invite varying degrees of, I would say, uncertainty or unsafety in the way that people might perceive it. So for instance, the tour that I was just on playing Allman Brothers songs, I am standing on the edge of the cliff the entire night, and if I mess something up, mess it up, what even is a mistake? But if I do a little clunker or whatever it is, it’s like, so what? I wouldn’t have played half the stuff that I’m playing if I wasn’t constantly standing on the edge of the cliff, like wild.
And so I don’t care about those few little things. I care about the overall expression. And then there’s other gigs that, for instance, if I got called for a pop or a country session or a show. In those environments, they may want you to play safe, just play the part and play it with a great groove and time and great dynamics and don’t really veer away from the part and stuff. And I’ve done plenty of those gigs too. It’s just a different hat you put on.
Lex Fridman
What do you get from the veering? From the veering off the beaten path? You just love it? Or is that going to make the performance better? Why stand at the edge of the cliff?
What do you get from the veering? From the veering off the beaten path? You just love it? Or is that going to make the performance better? Why stand at the edge of the cliff?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Because at the edge of the cliff is all possibilities and unknown. You don’t know what’s coming. And I love being there in the unknown. Otherwise, it’s just like, “Well, why are we doing this? Am I just like a clown on stage showing you my skills or what I’ve studied in my bedroom?” It’s like, no, I want to be pure expression happening right now and responding in real time to everything that’s happening. And anytime I’m not doing that, it’s like it’s a waste of everybody’s time.
Because at the edge of the cliff is all possibilities and unknown. You don’t know what’s coming. And I love being there in the unknown. Otherwise, it’s just like, “Well, why are we doing this? Am I just like a clown on stage showing you my skills or what I’ve studied in my bedroom?” It’s like, no, I want to be pure expression happening right now and responding in real time to everything that’s happening. And anytime I’m not doing that, it’s like it’s a waste of everybody’s time.
Lex Fridman
Have you ever messed it up real bad?
Have you ever messed it up real bad?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Messed what up?
Messed what up?
Lex Fridman
I mean, all comedians bomb. You’re a big fan of comedy.
I mean, all comedians bomb. You’re a big fan of comedy.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Have you ever bombed on stage?
Have you ever bombed on stage?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Probably. I think it’s all about recovery. And the more times that you fall off the cliff, the quicker you know how to recover and the varying ways that you can recover to the point in which it’s concealed so much that maybe a listener might not even know that you’re recovering.
Probably. I think it’s all about recovery. And the more times that you fall off the cliff, the quicker you know how to recover and the varying ways that you can recover to the point in which it’s concealed so much that maybe a listener might not even know that you’re recovering.
Lex Fridman
And eventually you learn to fly, if we take that metaphor all the way, off the cliff. [inaudible 00:07:44]
And eventually you learn to fly, if we take that metaphor all the way, off the cliff. [inaudible 00:07:44]
Tal Wilkenfeld
Remember one time when I was really young. Well, not really young, but when I was 21 or-
Remember one time when I was really young. Well, not really young, but when I was 21 or-
Lex Fridman
What is age anyway?
What is age anyway?
Tal Wilkenfeld
22? Yeah, exactly. But when I was first playing with Jeff Beck and we played at what I consider the best, the coolest jazz festival, it’s Montreux Jazz. And Miles played there, everyone played there, and they have the best speaker system ever. I was excited for months, and the drummer, Vinny was practicing for eight hours in the bus on the way there, and everyone was on fire on stage. And I remember playing a note, just one note that I really didn’t like. And I let it go in the moment on stage, but as soon as I got off-stage, I was really sad.
22? Yeah, exactly. But when I was first playing with Jeff Beck and we played at what I consider the best, the coolest jazz festival, it’s Montreux Jazz. And Miles played there, everyone played there, and they have the best speaker system ever. I was excited for months, and the drummer, Vinny was practicing for eight hours in the bus on the way there, and everyone was on fire on stage. And I remember playing a note, just one note that I really didn’t like. And I let it go in the moment on stage, but as soon as I got off-stage, I was really sad.
And so I sat on this road case, everyone was out celebrating. I sat this road case, look with a sad face, boo-hoo. And then Claude Nobs, the owner of the whole festival, came out to me. He’s like, “Tal, what’s wrong?” And I’m like, “I played a bad note.” I was such a child. And he said all this wise stuff that Miles Davis had imparted to him and it fully cheered me up. He’s like, “Is there anything that would make you feel better?” And I was like, “Caviar?” The dude came back 10 minutes later with this huge thing.
Lex Fridman
Oh wow.
Oh wow.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It was a joke. It was a joke, but he actually brought me caviar. But anyway, that’s the one time that I remember being sad about a performance. Now I’m just like, “Okay, whatever. It’s done.”
It was a joke. It was a joke, but he actually brought me caviar. But anyway, that’s the one time that I remember being sad about a performance. Now I’m just like, “Okay, whatever. It’s done.”
Lex Fridman
Was it a physical slip of the fingers or did you intend to play that note?
Was it a physical slip of the fingers or did you intend to play that note?
Tal Wilkenfeld
That I can’t remember. I can’t remember if it was just a bad choice that sounded like a clanger, why it happened. It was so long ago, but I don’t get depressed about that anymore.
That I can’t remember. I can’t remember if it was just a bad choice that sounded like a clanger, why it happened. It was so long ago, but I don’t get depressed about that anymore.
Lex Fridman
That’d be funny if that was your biggest and only regret in life is that note, and that haunted you in your dreams.
That’d be funny if that was your biggest and only regret in life is that note, and that haunted you in your dreams.
Tal Wilkenfeld
And then I’m on my deathbed and everyone’s just bringing me caviar because the one-
And then I’m on my deathbed and everyone’s just bringing me caviar because the one-
Confidence on stage
Lex Fridman
Joke went way too far. You talked about confidence somewhere. I don’t remember where. So I want to ask you about how much confidence it takes to be up there. You said something that Anthony Jackson told you as encouragement, line that I really like. That quote, “On your worst day, you’re still a bad motherfucker.”
Joke went way too far. You talked about confidence somewhere. I don’t remember where. So I want to ask you about how much confidence it takes to be up there. You said something that Anthony Jackson told you as encouragement, line that I really like. That quote, “On your worst day, you’re still a bad motherfucker.”
Tal Wilkenfeld
That’s actually a Steve Gadd quote. And Steve used to tell that to Anthony because Anthony used to get real depressed if he did a wrong thing or not perfect thing. And Steve Gadd used to say this to Anthony Jackson. And then Anthony was my first bass mentor or just mentor in general.
That’s actually a Steve Gadd quote. And Steve used to tell that to Anthony because Anthony used to get real depressed if he did a wrong thing or not perfect thing. And Steve Gadd used to say this to Anthony Jackson. And then Anthony was my first bass mentor or just mentor in general.
Lex Fridman
For people don’t know, he’s a legendary bassist.
For people don’t know, he’s a legendary bassist.
Tal Wilkenfeld
He’s a legendary bassist. And I started playing the bass when I was 17 and I moved to New York and I met Anthony and he started mentoring me bit in a very not typical way. He would just sit in his car with me for hours and talk music.
He’s a legendary bassist. And I started playing the bass when I was 17 and I moved to New York and I met Anthony and he started mentoring me bit in a very not typical way. He would just sit in his car with me for hours and talk music.
Lex Fridman
You guys just listen to music and analyze it?
You guys just listen to music and analyze it?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Exactly. And that was the best form of learning, I think. Just like, “Well, what do you perceive here?” And, “Well, I heard this” and just discussing that.
Exactly. And that was the best form of learning, I think. Just like, “Well, what do you perceive here?” And, “Well, I heard this” and just discussing that.
Lex Fridman
Jazz usually?
Jazz usually?
Tal Wilkenfeld
No, all styles of music. And yeah, he told me that story about on your worst day because yeah, even then when I was 18, 19, I’d get sad sometimes about performances. “I could have done this.” I don’t do that anymore, thankfully. Or I’d be miserable.
No, all styles of music. And yeah, he told me that story about on your worst day because yeah, even then when I was 18, 19, I’d get sad sometimes about performances. “I could have done this.” I don’t do that anymore, thankfully. Or I’d be miserable.
Lex Fridman
So you always kind of feel pretty good?
So you always kind of feel pretty good?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. Yeah, now I do. Now it’s just I sense the body feeling fatigued, especially if it’s a very long show. The ones I just did with three hour shows and we did one to three hour sound checks. So that’s a lot of physical activity every day. So I just feel the body being tired, fatigued, the ears are fatigued. That’s about it. I don’t really reflect on the show much.
Yeah. Yeah, now I do. Now it’s just I sense the body feeling fatigued, especially if it’s a very long show. The ones I just did with three hour shows and we did one to three hour sound checks. So that’s a lot of physical activity every day. So I just feel the body being tired, fatigued, the ears are fatigued. That’s about it. I don’t really reflect on the show much.
Lex Fridman
You’re almost like from a third person perspective, feel the body get tired and just accept it.
You’re almost like from a third person perspective, feel the body get tired and just accept it.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, I don’t want to identify with it then I’m tired, but I’m not tired.
Yeah, I don’t want to identify with it then I’m tired, but I’m not tired.
Lex Fridman
It’s very Zen.
It’s very Zen.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I’m usually energized.
I’m usually energized.
Lex Fridman
It’s like with the food poisoning, the mind is still capable of creative genius, even if the body is gone.
It’s like with the food poisoning, the mind is still capable of creative genius, even if the body is gone.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Something like that? So no self-critical component to the way you see your performances anymore?
Something like that? So no self-critical component to the way you see your performances anymore?
Tal Wilkenfeld
There is critique, but not in the way that it would diminish my sense of self. It’s different. I can just kind of look at something and be like, “Okay, well actually next time I’ll do this choice and this choice, maybe. Maybe this would serve the song better. Maybe this would help the groove feel more like this.” But it’s not like, “I suck because I did this and I’m a loser.”
There is critique, but not in the way that it would diminish my sense of self. It’s different. I can just kind of look at something and be like, “Okay, well actually next time I’ll do this choice and this choice, maybe. Maybe this would serve the song better. Maybe this would help the groove feel more like this.” But it’s not like, “I suck because I did this and I’m a loser.”
Lex Fridman
Do you think that’s bad? Even when I asked that question, I had a self-critical thought that, “Why’d you ask that question? That’s the wrong question.” I always have the self-critical engine running. Is it necessarily a bad thing?
Do you think that’s bad? Even when I asked that question, I had a self-critical thought that, “Why’d you ask that question? That’s the wrong question.” I always have the self-critical engine running. Is it necessarily a bad thing?
Tal Wilkenfeld
It depends. If it’s affecting you negatively.
It depends. If it’s affecting you negatively.
Lex Fridman
What is negative anyway?
What is negative anyway?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, if it brings your frequency down and you feel less joyful inside and less, you don’t feel like complete, you feel less than, less worthy of something, than you could call that bad if you aspire to not feel that way.
Well, if it brings your frequency down and you feel less joyful inside and less, you don’t feel like complete, you feel less than, less worthy of something, than you could call that bad if you aspire to not feel that way.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I aspire to not feel that way in the big picture, but in the little picture, a little pain is good.
Yeah, I aspire to not feel that way in the big picture, but in the little picture, a little pain is good.
Tal Wilkenfeld
That’s fair.
That’s fair.
Lex Fridman
So confidence. You seem like in this performance, you seem confident. You seem to be truly walking the bad motherfucker way of life.
So confidence. You seem like in this performance, you seem confident. You seem to be truly walking the bad motherfucker way of life.
Tal Wilkenfeld
A word that I prefer over confidence is trust. Because I think with confidence is almost like is a belief assigned to it that I am this thing.
A word that I prefer over confidence is trust. Because I think with confidence is almost like is a belief assigned to it that I am this thing.
Lex Fridman
Ego.
Ego.
Tal Wilkenfeld
That you believe in. Whereas trust is just simply knowing that you can get up there and handle whatever is going to come your way. And it’s more of an open feeling where it’s like, “Yeah, I could do this. Sure.” But not like, “I’m a bad motherfucker.” You know what I mean? There’s a huge difference because I’ve shared the stage with people who have a lot of confidence and it can be like a brick wall, just like fear is a brick wall.
That you believe in. Whereas trust is just simply knowing that you can get up there and handle whatever is going to come your way. And it’s more of an open feeling where it’s like, “Yeah, I could do this. Sure.” But not like, “I’m a bad motherfucker.” You know what I mean? There’s a huge difference because I’ve shared the stage with people who have a lot of confidence and it can be like a brick wall, just like fear is a brick wall.
Lex Fridman
So the brick wall is a bad thing. The thing you have with Jeff here on stage-
So the brick wall is a bad thing. The thing you have with Jeff here on stage-
Tal Wilkenfeld
Is not a brick wall.
Is not a brick wall.
Lex Fridman
There’s no wall, just chemistry.
There’s no wall, just chemistry.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
How can you explain that chemistry the two of you had?
How can you explain that chemistry the two of you had?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Trust and lack of fear. Yeah, and also I will say that each individual has developed likes and dislikes over their lifetime. And that can be like in this case, we’re just talking aesthetic likes and dislikes. So in this particular case, obviously our likes and dislikes are very much aligned such that the things I do to complement him, he enjoys and vice versa. But it could be two very trusting open musicians on stage that don’t have walls up, but their choices are very different. And one person likes heavy metal and the other person likes classical. So it’s got to be both.
Trust and lack of fear. Yeah, and also I will say that each individual has developed likes and dislikes over their lifetime. And that can be like in this case, we’re just talking aesthetic likes and dislikes. So in this particular case, obviously our likes and dislikes are very much aligned such that the things I do to complement him, he enjoys and vice versa. But it could be two very trusting open musicians on stage that don’t have walls up, but their choices are very different. And one person likes heavy metal and the other person likes classical. So it’s got to be both.
Lex Fridman
So you guys were good at yes and-sing each other musically?
So you guys were good at yes and-sing each other musically?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Definitely.
Definitely.
Lex Fridman
Is that where you’re most at peace in a meditative way? It’s on stage?
Is that where you’re most at peace in a meditative way? It’s on stage?
Tal Wilkenfeld
It used to be that it would only be on stage. It started with that. That was almost like my way into flow state and meditation was playing music. And then back in the day when I’d kind of crash after shows, I wanted to change that. I wanted to always feel like I’m in flow state.
It used to be that it would only be on stage. It started with that. That was almost like my way into flow state and meditation was playing music. And then back in the day when I’d kind of crash after shows, I wanted to change that. I wanted to always feel like I’m in flow state.
Lex Fridman
Have you succeeded?
Have you succeeded?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I’ve gotten a lot better. I’m still obviously on the journey, but yes.
I’ve gotten a lot better. I’m still obviously on the journey, but yes.
Lex Fridman
So you meditate? I think you said somewhere that you meditate before shows or just in general?
So you meditate? I think you said somewhere that you meditate before shows or just in general?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I meditate every day. When I’m on tour with my band, I ask that we all meditate together for at least 20 minutes. And I don’t dictate which type of meditation. I don’t put on a guided meditation. Everyone has their own thing they want to do. Maybe someone might be praying in their head, it doesn’t matter. It’s just the idea that we all put our phones down and we all are in one room connecting energetically, spiritually, and just letting our lives go for a second. And then we walk straight on the stage and it’s always really connected. And there were a couple gigs where we ran out of time for that, and I could tell. There was a major difference in the performance.
I meditate every day. When I’m on tour with my band, I ask that we all meditate together for at least 20 minutes. And I don’t dictate which type of meditation. I don’t put on a guided meditation. Everyone has their own thing they want to do. Maybe someone might be praying in their head, it doesn’t matter. It’s just the idea that we all put our phones down and we all are in one room connecting energetically, spiritually, and just letting our lives go for a second. And then we walk straight on the stage and it’s always really connected. And there were a couple gigs where we ran out of time for that, and I could tell. There was a major difference in the performance.
Lex Fridman
So it both connects you and centers you, all of those things.
So it both connects you and centers you, all of those things.
Tal Wilkenfeld
But then when I’m home, I love to meditate and I’ve tried various styles of meditation and studied various types of things. So I don’t do just one thing. I kind of customize it depending on where I’m at in my life.
But then when I’m home, I love to meditate and I’ve tried various styles of meditation and studied various types of things. So I don’t do just one thing. I kind of customize it depending on where I’m at in my life.
Lex Fridman
You and the world lost Jeff Beck a year ago. You told me you really miss him. How’s the pain of losing Jeff change you? Maybe deepen your sense of the world?
You and the world lost Jeff Beck a year ago. You told me you really miss him. How’s the pain of losing Jeff change you? Maybe deepen your sense of the world?
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s hard to accept that we won’t create something musically again in this lifetime. But in terms of the grief, grief was easier for me because I went through a major grief period in 2016 and 17, and that was the first time I’d really gone through the process of grief in a non-family situation with friends and mentors and people that I’d created with, which is different. It’s a different kind of connection. When my grandparents died, it’s like there was nothing left unsaid. And I was at peace with what was happening.
It’s hard to accept that we won’t create something musically again in this lifetime. But in terms of the grief, grief was easier for me because I went through a major grief period in 2016 and 17, and that was the first time I’d really gone through the process of grief in a non-family situation with friends and mentors and people that I’d created with, which is different. It’s a different kind of connection. When my grandparents died, it’s like there was nothing left unsaid. And I was at peace with what was happening.
With this, when Prince died out of the blue in mid 2016, and then Leonard Cohen died in November, that just tore me to shreds because Leonard Cohen was not just someone that profoundly inspired me musically and lyrically, but spiritually, we had a very deep connection. And that was the basis of a lot of our conversation was spirituality. And so at that time, I felt like a piece of me went missing. And that was a very long process where I just stayed in my place and didn’t want to play a note of music. I kind of wanted to just get rid of all my stuff. So I had a friend come over and he’s like, “You should just, why don’t you come to the Comedy Store?” I’m like, “Comedy Store? What am I going to go to some store and buy clown suits? What are you talking about? What’s a Comedy Store?” He’s like, “No, no, no. The Comedy Store, the place where comedians go.”
I’m like, “Okay, well, I’ve never seen standup. I’ve seen Seinfeld on TV. That’s the extent of my standup experience.” So he took me to the Comedy Store and every single one of those comedians embraced me like I was family. It didn’t even take a day. I was part of the family and I made 25 best friends, and I ended up throwing all my stuff in storage and finding a little room to stay in where I rented my gear out and my rent paying was me loaning the gear. I didn’t want any responsibilities, financial, I just wanted to be completely free so that I could just process it and not feel like I had to commit to anything work-wise or creatively. I just wanted to unplug.
And so this was a fun and very different way to unplug, because previously I may have just gone to a monastery and spent weeks at a monastery or months, but in this case I was like, “You know what? This is a different kind of experience. I’m going to just hang out with comedians and stay in this room.”
Lex Fridman
With no responsibility, really.
With no responsibility, really.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Other than to really deeply connect with this grief that I’m experiencing. I’m not going to negate it. I’m going to really fully connect to it. And I did, and it was tough. And then more people in 2017 were leaving. Gregg Allman, Tom Petty. I mean, these are people, I worked with all these people and had great connections with them, and they were all going, and the world was mourning the loss of these people because of everything that they’d given to the world. They’d changed the world’s lives, not just mine because I knew them personally. And so that was also complicated. And why, for me, it was interesting to be grieving the loss of these musicians with comedians.
Other than to really deeply connect with this grief that I’m experiencing. I’m not going to negate it. I’m going to really fully connect to it. And I did, and it was tough. And then more people in 2017 were leaving. Gregg Allman, Tom Petty. I mean, these are people, I worked with all these people and had great connections with them, and they were all going, and the world was mourning the loss of these people because of everything that they’d given to the world. They’d changed the world’s lives, not just mine because I knew them personally. And so that was also complicated. And why, for me, it was interesting to be grieving the loss of these musicians with comedians.
And I learned a lot. It changed my life. I learned to laugh at absolutely anything, everything. I mean, my grandpa had a really great sense of humor too. My grandpa was a Holocaust survivor, and he could just laugh at anything. And so I already kind of have that in me. But being around all these comedians just kind of exaggerated that for me, and that really changed things for me for the better. So then when Jeff Beck died, it was like, “Okay, I’ve got these tools. I know what this is and I’m going to go through it again, and I’m going to be on tour with Incubus in two days.”
So Mike Dirnt from Green Day, he called me up and he said, “Hey, I know you’re going through a lot.” And I said, “I don’t even know what I’m going to play. I really want a vintage jazz bass for this, and I only have a seventies one that I don’t really think is appropriate. I really need a sixties one, blah, blah, blah.” And Mike’s like, “I’m going to hook you up.” He showed up to my place the next day with a truckload of old P basses and jazz basses and brought them all into my studio, and I’m playing them.
And then I pull one out of the case and it’s Olympic White, just like Jeff Beck and I play it. And not only did I get goosebumps and started crying, but I looked over at Mike and same thing was happening, and he’s like, “I guess Jeff might be happy about this.” And he’s like, “Well, I didn’t want to let this one go. I was just trying to cheer you up a bit and maybe loan it to you for the tour, but if you really want it’s yours.” And I was like, “Oh my God, this is… Mike Dirnt is the nicest guy ever.”
So that happened. So that bass’ name is Jeff, and it’s a white jazz bass, and I played it on the Incubus tour. But yeah, I do feel like I’m more equipped to handle grief now.
Lex Fridman
Tell me about the Comedy Store a little bit more. Do you think comedians and musicians in some deep fundamental way are made from the same cloth? Are they spiritually connected somehow?
Tell me about the Comedy Store a little bit more. Do you think comedians and musicians in some deep fundamental way are made from the same cloth? Are they spiritually connected somehow?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I think everyone’s connected spiritually in the same way. So I think personality wise, comedians and musicians are quite different, actually.
I think everyone’s connected spiritually in the same way. So I think personality wise, comedians and musicians are quite different, actually.
Lex Fridman
In what way?
In what way?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, you’d have to subdivide even musicians into different categories too, because the thing that I appreciate about comedians is that you go to a restaurant with them and all the observational humor of, they’ll notice everything and make you laugh about it, which a really great songwriter does the same thing too. And my favorite lyricists, like Leonard Cohen, Bob Dylan, Paul Simon, Warren Zevon, they add comedy into their lyric. And so those types of people I would liken to hanging out with a comedian.
Well, you’d have to subdivide even musicians into different categories too, because the thing that I appreciate about comedians is that you go to a restaurant with them and all the observational humor of, they’ll notice everything and make you laugh about it, which a really great songwriter does the same thing too. And my favorite lyricists, like Leonard Cohen, Bob Dylan, Paul Simon, Warren Zevon, they add comedy into their lyric. And so those types of people I would liken to hanging out with a comedian.
It’s very different from say somebody that is an instrumental guitarist or something like that, that they’re more focused on, whether it’s a kinesthetic thing or a physical thing or whatever it is. They’re not quite doing the observational thing in the same way. So I just appreciate, my favorite thing to do is go on and laugh, especially because I can tend to be pretty analytical and be in my head. So anything that just kind of lets me be in my heart and just enjoy life is great.
Lex Fridman
I think there’s a photo of you with Dave Chappelle on stage. What was that about?
I think there’s a photo of you with Dave Chappelle on stage. What was that about?
Tal Wilkenfeld
So right after Leonard Cohen passed away, the Comedy Store threw me a birthday party. It was this crazy lineup, and it was like I’d play a song with my band, and then Jackson Brown sat in and sang a song, and then Dave Chappelle came up and said some jokes. It was one of my favorite nights ever.
So right after Leonard Cohen passed away, the Comedy Store threw me a birthday party. It was this crazy lineup, and it was like I’d play a song with my band, and then Jackson Brown sat in and sang a song, and then Dave Chappelle came up and said some jokes. It was one of my favorite nights ever.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. It was cool. It was a very healing birthday party.
Yeah. It was cool. It was a very healing birthday party.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s something magical about that place.
Yeah, there’s something magical about that place.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It’s really special.
It’s really special.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. Well, the Mothership has some magic to it too. It’s really cool. It’s different. Totally different vibe, but super awesome.
Yeah. Well, the Mothership has some magic to it too. It’s really cool. It’s different. Totally different vibe, but super awesome.
Leonard Cohen
Lex Fridman
You said that Leonard Cohen is a songwriting inspiration of yours. I saw you perform his song Chelsea Hotel, brilliantly on the internet. It’s about, for people who don’t know his love affair with Janet Joplin. How does that song make you feel?
You said that Leonard Cohen is a songwriting inspiration of yours. I saw you perform his song Chelsea Hotel, brilliantly on the internet. It’s about, for people who don’t know his love affair with Janet Joplin. How does that song make you feel?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Great. I love that song.
Great. I love that song.
Lex Fridman
Which aspect? Musically, the melancholy feeling, the hopeful feeling, the cocky feeling? All of it, every single line has a different feeling to it, really.
Which aspect? Musically, the melancholy feeling, the hopeful feeling, the cocky feeling? All of it, every single line has a different feeling to it, really.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. But as a whole piece, I appreciate it so much. I actually lived at the Chelsea Hotel, and when Leonard and I first met, that was one of the first things we talked about was that I lived there, where all that stuff went down before they tore it apart. And yeah, it is just a beautiful song.
Yeah. But as a whole piece, I appreciate it so much. I actually lived at the Chelsea Hotel, and when Leonard and I first met, that was one of the first things we talked about was that I lived there, where all that stuff went down before they tore it apart. And yeah, it is just a beautiful song.
Lex Fridman
What makes me sad, the way it ends. “I don’t mean to suggest that I loved you the best. I can’t keep track of each fallen robin. I remember you well in the Chelsea Hotel. That’s all, I don’t even think of you that often.” That line, ” I don’t even think of you that often” always breaks my heart for some reason.
What makes me sad, the way it ends. “I don’t mean to suggest that I loved you the best. I can’t keep track of each fallen robin. I remember you well in the Chelsea Hotel. That’s all, I don’t even think of you that often.” That line, ” I don’t even think of you that often” always breaks my heart for some reason.
Lex Fridman
… I don’t even think of you that often, always breaks my heart for some reason. How ephemeral, how short lasting certain love affairs can be. Just kind of like, huh.
… I don’t even think of you that often, always breaks my heart for some reason. How ephemeral, how short lasting certain love affairs can be. Just kind of like, huh.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Do you think he meant it? I always think he’s trying to convince himself of it.
Do you think he meant it? I always think he’s trying to convince himself of it.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It could be both, or either. That’s the beautiful thing about poetry and lyric, is that it’s supposed to be open.
It could be both, or either. That’s the beautiful thing about poetry and lyric, is that it’s supposed to be open.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I wonder if it’s also open to him, depending on the day.
Yeah. I wonder if it’s also open to him, depending on the day.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Definitely. The thing that he taught me, or his advice to me was when you’re writing a song, look at it the next morning, just first thing, and read it. And then take a walk, smoke a joint, read it again. Go have a fight with your daughter, come back, read it again. Get drunk, read it again. Wait a week, read it again. Just so that from every state and every position, the wider the lens is going to be from an audience perspective. You want things to mean multiple things.
Definitely. The thing that he taught me, or his advice to me was when you’re writing a song, look at it the next morning, just first thing, and read it. And then take a walk, smoke a joint, read it again. Go have a fight with your daughter, come back, read it again. Get drunk, read it again. Wait a week, read it again. Just so that from every state and every position, the wider the lens is going to be from an audience perspective. You want things to mean multiple things.
Lex Fridman
There’s one line I read somewhere, that he regrets putting in the song, so I’ve got to ask you about it. It’s pretty edgy. It’s about, “Giving me head on the unmade bed.” You think that’s a good line, or a bad line?
There’s one line I read somewhere, that he regrets putting in the song, so I’ve got to ask you about it. It’s pretty edgy. It’s about, “Giving me head on the unmade bed.” You think that’s a good line, or a bad line?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I think it’s an amazing line. It’s one of the best lines in the song.
I think it’s an amazing line. It’s one of the best lines in the song.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, right?
Yeah, right?
Tal Wilkenfeld
When he put that song out, obviously he didn’t regret it, or he wouldn’t have put that lyric in the song. I think what happened was that eventually word got out, either from him or from somebody else, that the song was about Janis Joplin. And so at that point, he regretted the indiscretion. It wasn’t that he regretted how great the line was, it was just the privacy factor. But then again, Leonard’s known for rewriting his lyrics. In his live shows, you’ll see a bunch of songs where it’s like new lyrics. And he didn’t do it because he didn’t like the old lyrics, he just did it because he could, because he’s Leonard. And it’s like, why not have fun with words the way musicians have fun improvising solos on stage? And he could have changed that line in Chelsea Hotel after, in retrospect, and he never did.
When he put that song out, obviously he didn’t regret it, or he wouldn’t have put that lyric in the song. I think what happened was that eventually word got out, either from him or from somebody else, that the song was about Janis Joplin. And so at that point, he regretted the indiscretion. It wasn’t that he regretted how great the line was, it was just the privacy factor. But then again, Leonard’s known for rewriting his lyrics. In his live shows, you’ll see a bunch of songs where it’s like new lyrics. And he didn’t do it because he didn’t like the old lyrics, he just did it because he could, because he’s Leonard. And it’s like, why not have fun with words the way musicians have fun improvising solos on stage? And he could have changed that line in Chelsea Hotel after, in retrospect, and he never did.
Lex Fridman
“I remember you well in the Chelsea Hotel. You were talking so brave and so sweet. Giving me head on the unmade bed, while the limousines wait in the street.”
“I remember you well in the Chelsea Hotel. You were talking so brave and so sweet. Giving me head on the unmade bed, while the limousines wait in the street.”
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s so powerful.
It’s so powerful.
Lex Fridman
It’s a powerful line. It just kind of shocks you.
It’s a powerful line. It just kind of shocks you.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, that’s what’s so great about it. Yeah.
Well, that’s what’s so great about it. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
But also heartbreaking, because it doesn’t last. Especially actually, to me it adds more meaning once you know it was Janis Joplin. It’s like, okay, these two stars collided for a time.
But also heartbreaking, because it doesn’t last. Especially actually, to me it adds more meaning once you know it was Janis Joplin. It’s like, okay, these two stars collided for a time.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, but why is it heartbreaking? It could also be just beautiful that they had a little fling.
Yeah, but why is it heartbreaking? It could also be just beautiful that they had a little fling.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, everything is beautiful.
Yeah, everything is beautiful.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Thank you.
Thank you.
Lex Fridman
Even the dark stuff. What’s not beautiful? Everything is beautiful, if you look long enough and deeply enough. What were we saying? Oh, what do you think about Hallelujah? What do you think about the different songs of his, and why’d you choose Chelsea Hotel to perform?
Even the dark stuff. What’s not beautiful? Everything is beautiful, if you look long enough and deeply enough. What were we saying? Oh, what do you think about Hallelujah? What do you think about the different songs of his, and why’d you choose Chelsea Hotel to perform?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Because I lived there, and it meant something to me to sing that song. And actually when I put that song out on YouTube, that’s when he sent me an email. He’s like, “Hey, do you want to come over?”
Because I lived there, and it meant something to me to sing that song. And actually when I put that song out on YouTube, that’s when he sent me an email. He’s like, “Hey, do you want to come over?”
Lex Fridman
Nice. This is how you guys connected?
Nice. This is how you guys connected?
Tal Wilkenfeld
No, we met in a rehearsal studio. I ended up watching their whole rehearsal, and sitting there next to Roshi, his 105-year-old monk, which was really great. I remember when I was shaking his hand, it was just me and Roshi on the couch watching Leonard with this band. And we are shaking hands, and he grips my hand like this, doesn’t let it go. And he looked in my eyes, he said, “Where are you?” And I said, “In the handshake.” He says, “Yes.”
No, we met in a rehearsal studio. I ended up watching their whole rehearsal, and sitting there next to Roshi, his 105-year-old monk, which was really great. I remember when I was shaking his hand, it was just me and Roshi on the couch watching Leonard with this band. And we are shaking hands, and he grips my hand like this, doesn’t let it go. And he looked in my eyes, he said, “Where are you?” And I said, “In the handshake.” He says, “Yes.”
Lex Fridman
Wow. You passed the test.
Wow. You passed the test.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Passed the Roshi test. And then what’s funny was that the next thing that happened about five minutes later, was Leonard Cohen got down on his knees and opened up a jar, I’m not kidding you, of caviar. This is not a callback.
Passed the Roshi test. And then what’s funny was that the next thing that happened about five minutes later, was Leonard Cohen got down on his knees and opened up a jar, I’m not kidding you, of caviar. This is not a callback.
Lex Fridman
Well, it is in a way. In a deep, fundamental way.
Well, it is in a way. In a deep, fundamental way.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I know, I know. He started feeding the monk caviar, and that healed my Montreux Jazz Festival sadness forever. The end.
I know, I know. He started feeding the monk caviar, and that healed my Montreux Jazz Festival sadness forever. The end.
Lex Fridman
Do you think there’s a kind of weird, there’s a sense of humor to it all somehow? Why does that happen? Why does that happen? Why stuff like that happens, or that the Jeff Bass speaks to you?
Do you think there’s a kind of weird, there’s a sense of humor to it all somehow? Why does that happen? Why does that happen? Why stuff like that happens, or that the Jeff Bass speaks to you?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Why do we need to know?
Why do we need to know?
Lex Fridman
You believe in that stuff?
You believe in that stuff?
Tal Wilkenfeld
In what stuff?
In what stuff?
Lex Fridman
That there’s a rhyme to the whole thing, somehow? There’s a frequency to which magical things of that nature can happen?
That there’s a rhyme to the whole thing, somehow? There’s a frequency to which magical things of that nature can happen?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I’m divided about that answer. Because I think just things are flowing, I don’t think anything’s planned out.
I’m divided about that answer. Because I think just things are flowing, I don’t think anything’s planned out.
Lex Fridman
Like through time, it’s like an orchestra playing of different experiences and circumstances that are somehow connected.
Like through time, it’s like an orchestra playing of different experiences and circumstances that are somehow connected.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I think everything’s connected, so yes.
I think everything’s connected, so yes.
Lex Fridman
But predetermined means-
But predetermined means-
Tal Wilkenfeld
I don’t believe in the predetermined stuff necessarily, which is different from whatever your previous karma is. And karma is a whole other conversation, I don’t mean karma as in good karma, bad karma. Just karma meaning the collection of things you’ve acquired over this lifetime or other lifetimes. Just whatever that is, is going to influence your future.
I don’t believe in the predetermined stuff necessarily, which is different from whatever your previous karma is. And karma is a whole other conversation, I don’t mean karma as in good karma, bad karma. Just karma meaning the collection of things you’ve acquired over this lifetime or other lifetimes. Just whatever that is, is going to influence your future.
Lex Fridman
Well, you had a really interesting trajectory through life. Maybe I just read it that way, because I’ve had a lot of stuff happen to me that’s lucky, feels lucky. And sometimes I’ll wonder, huh, this is weird. It does feel like the universe just kind of throws stuff at you with a chuckle. I don’t know. Not you, the proverbial you. One.
Well, you had a really interesting trajectory through life. Maybe I just read it that way, because I’ve had a lot of stuff happen to me that’s lucky, feels lucky. And sometimes I’ll wonder, huh, this is weird. It does feel like the universe just kind of throws stuff at you with a chuckle. I don’t know. Not you, the proverbial you. One.
Tal Wilkenfeld
One, yeah.
One, yeah.
Taxi Driver
Lex Fridman
You said you sometimes watch classic movies to inspire your songwriting, and you mentioned watching Taxi Driver. I love that movie. And I think you mentioned that you wrote a love song based on that movie. So Travis Bickle, for people who don’t know, is a taxi driver and he’s deeply lonely. What do you think about that kind of loneliness?
You said you sometimes watch classic movies to inspire your songwriting, and you mentioned watching Taxi Driver. I love that movie. And I think you mentioned that you wrote a love song based on that movie. So Travis Bickle, for people who don’t know, is a taxi driver and he’s deeply lonely. What do you think about that kind of loneliness?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I think that loneliness is a product of feeling separate from the world, and separate from others. And that the less you experience that separation, the less you’ll feel lonely.
I think that loneliness is a product of feeling separate from the world, and separate from others. And that the less you experience that separation, the less you’ll feel lonely.
Lex Fridman
How often have you felt lonely in this way, separated from the rest of the world?
How often have you felt lonely in this way, separated from the rest of the world?
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s less and less every single year. Because I work very hard at it.
It’s less and less every single year. Because I work very hard at it.
Lex Fridman
Feeling like a part of the world?
Feeling like a part of the world?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, just meditating and studying scriptures.
Yeah, just meditating and studying scriptures.
Lex Fridman
Don’t you think that, isn’t there a fundamental loneliness to the human experience?
Don’t you think that, isn’t there a fundamental loneliness to the human experience?
Tal Wilkenfeld
In what sense?
In what sense?
Lex Fridman
That all the struggles, all the suffering you experience is really experienced by you alone?
That all the struggles, all the suffering you experience is really experienced by you alone?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Is it?
Is it?
Lex Fridman
Maybe at the very bottom, it’s not.
Maybe at the very bottom, it’s not.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s kind of all the same stuff.
It’s kind of all the same stuff.
Lex Fridman
You didn’t feel alone in 2016, 2017?
You didn’t feel alone in 2016, 2017?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I felt like I lost a piece of myself that I had given to somebody else. And I feel like people feel that in romantic exchanges, whether it’s long-term, short-term. You give a piece of yourself, and then if that person dies or you break up with that person, you feel like you’ve lost that piece of yourself. Which I feel like is a very different experience than if you just are opening yourself. Rather than giving a piece of yourself, you’re just opening yourself to somebody or something.
I felt like I lost a piece of myself that I had given to somebody else. And I feel like people feel that in romantic exchanges, whether it’s long-term, short-term. You give a piece of yourself, and then if that person dies or you break up with that person, you feel like you’ve lost that piece of yourself. Which I feel like is a very different experience than if you just are opening yourself. Rather than giving a piece of yourself, you’re just opening yourself to somebody or something.
Lex Fridman
So opening is fundamentally not a lonely experience.
So opening is fundamentally not a lonely experience.
Tal Wilkenfeld
No, it’s a loving experience.
No, it’s a loving experience.
Lex Fridman
And then losing a piece of yourself can be.
And then losing a piece of yourself can be.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. Because you can’t lose a piece of yourself, if you are the same self as every other self.
Yeah. Because you can’t lose a piece of yourself, if you are the same self as every other self.
Lex Fridman
Right, right. If you see yourself as together with everybody, then there’s no losing.
Right, right. If you see yourself as together with everybody, then there’s no losing.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah. It’s a beautiful way to look at it. You said that there’s something healing about being in an empty hotel room, with no attachments except your suitcase. A lot of people will talk about hotel rooms being a fundamentally lonely experience, but you’re saying it’s healing.
Yeah, yeah. It’s a beautiful way to look at it. You said that there’s something healing about being in an empty hotel room, with no attachments except your suitcase. A lot of people will talk about hotel rooms being a fundamentally lonely experience, but you’re saying it’s healing.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s healing. Yeah. Because I just get to sit there, and not worry about all this stuff, these meaningless attachments. I’ve got my suitcase with my necessities, or my three suitcases sometimes. And I can just sit there and meditate, and just be with myself, and it’s so awesome. And usually you plan your touring for, you get the business aspect of things taken care of in advance, so you can just really be flowing day to day on a tour. And it’s a great feeling. It’s funny because this last tour that I did, we didn’t have hotels every night. We had hotels maybe once a week. And I hadn’t done that before. Usually I’m frequently in hotels. I didn’t get that space that I’m really used to getting.
It’s healing. Yeah. Because I just get to sit there, and not worry about all this stuff, these meaningless attachments. I’ve got my suitcase with my necessities, or my three suitcases sometimes. And I can just sit there and meditate, and just be with myself, and it’s so awesome. And usually you plan your touring for, you get the business aspect of things taken care of in advance, so you can just really be flowing day to day on a tour. And it’s a great feeling. It’s funny because this last tour that I did, we didn’t have hotels every night. We had hotels maybe once a week. And I hadn’t done that before. Usually I’m frequently in hotels. I didn’t get that space that I’m really used to getting.
Lex Fridman
You missed them.
You missed them.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I very much missed it, and had to be very creative. And I ended up going into the back lounge when everyone was asleep, and meditating back there, or before everyone woke up. And I actually joined, there was an online meditation retreat that was happening. It was 12 hours a day of silent meditations that happens once a year, and I love this particular group of people. And they knew I was on tour, so they’re like, “Just join when you can.” And so I was on the tour doing the meditation retreat at the same time. It was so fun. It was so fun. Because I was in the back lounge, the bus is moving around like this, my laptop, the Zoom is like… and I’m just sitting meditating. It was like, yeah, this is the shit.
I very much missed it, and had to be very creative. And I ended up going into the back lounge when everyone was asleep, and meditating back there, or before everyone woke up. And I actually joined, there was an online meditation retreat that was happening. It was 12 hours a day of silent meditations that happens once a year, and I love this particular group of people. And they knew I was on tour, so they’re like, “Just join when you can.” And so I was on the tour doing the meditation retreat at the same time. It was so fun. It was so fun. Because I was in the back lounge, the bus is moving around like this, my laptop, the Zoom is like… and I’m just sitting meditating. It was like, yeah, this is the shit.
Lex Fridman
It’s silence, so they’re all connected to Zoom and just doing silent 12 hours a day?
It’s silence, so they’re all connected to Zoom and just doing silent 12 hours a day?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s cool.
That’s cool.
Tal Wilkenfeld
These particular retreats that I started doing, it’s not straight silent. There are silent sits every hour for 50 minutes, and then there’s some talks. And these people that I’ve been working with are really cool, because they’re integrating spiral dynamics into Zen, and it’s like the coolest combination.
These particular retreats that I started doing, it’s not straight silent. There are silent sits every hour for 50 minutes, and then there’s some talks. And these people that I’ve been working with are really cool, because they’re integrating spiral dynamics into Zen, and it’s like the coolest combination.
Lex Fridman
What’s spiral dynamics?
What’s spiral dynamics?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Like Ken Wilber? Do you know Ken Wilber, Integral Theory?
Like Ken Wilber? Do you know Ken Wilber, Integral Theory?
Lex Fridman
Yes. Can you explain a little bit? I vaguely know of him because of this notion that everything is one, everything is integrated, that every field has truths and falsehoods, and we should integrate the truths.
Yes. Can you explain a little bit? I vaguely know of him because of this notion that everything is one, everything is integrated, that every field has truths and falsehoods, and we should integrate the truths.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. It’s hard to explain how it applies to this type of meditation, because it’s in the guided parts of the meditation that this whole holonic theory is brought in, about transcending and including every aspect of your being. Because he talks about levels of development in consciousness, and how this applies to every single, religion or non-religion, that there are these levels of development, that go all the way up to enlightenment. No matter what you start off with. It could be Christianity, Buddhism, Vedanta, it doesn’t matter, anything.
Yeah. It’s hard to explain how it applies to this type of meditation, because it’s in the guided parts of the meditation that this whole holonic theory is brought in, about transcending and including every aspect of your being. Because he talks about levels of development in consciousness, and how this applies to every single, religion or non-religion, that there are these levels of development, that go all the way up to enlightenment. No matter what you start off with. It could be Christianity, Buddhism, Vedanta, it doesn’t matter, anything.
I like it when everything and everyone is taken into account. It doesn’t matter where you’re coming from, that there is a way to be self-realized, self-actualized. There are self-actualized beings from all walks of life with very, very different paths. There’s no one path. In this particular retreat I do, there’s a lot of silent sits, and then there’s some guided meditations. But I’ve tried a lot of different avenues, and they’re all great. I wouldn’t just say, just try this one thing. I’ve studied the Upanishads with Vedanta teachers, and gone through those texts for months and months, and stayed at monasteries. And how they break it down makes total sense to my mind and heart. And more importantly than my mind, my inner knowing, it resonates.
Lex Fridman
Inner knowing.
Inner knowing.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, because your mind is the thinking tool. It’s not you, you’re not your mind, you’re not your thoughts, you’re not your body. It’s like, just the you, that knowing that you have. When something resonates there, that’s usually when you go with something.
Yeah, because your mind is the thinking tool. It’s not you, you’re not your mind, you’re not your thoughts, you’re not your body. It’s like, just the you, that knowing that you have. When something resonates there, that’s usually when you go with something.
Lex Fridman
What was living in a monastery like?
What was living in a monastery like?
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s the best.
It’s the best.
Lex Fridman
What are we talking about?
What are we talking about?
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s just an empty room, with a tiny single bed, and a sheet and a pillow, and that’s it.
It’s just an empty room, with a tiny single bed, and a sheet and a pillow, and that’s it.
Lex Fridman
That’s it?
That’s it?
Tal Wilkenfeld
You have to eat the same thing as everyone.
You have to eat the same thing as everyone.
Lex Fridman
What’s the food like? What is it?
What’s the food like? What is it?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Very plain, cheap, basic food. Which is funny for someone like me, because I’m pretty particular about my diet.
Very plain, cheap, basic food. Which is funny for someone like me, because I’m pretty particular about my diet.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, you brought over like 20 different ingredients.
Yeah, you brought over like 20 different ingredients.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
What was the day in the life of Tal in a monastery?
What was the day in the life of Tal in a monastery?
Tal Wilkenfeld
You wake up at 5:00 a.m. to the bell, and you go and meditate constantly until bedtime. Other than two meals.
You wake up at 5:00 a.m. to the bell, and you go and meditate constantly until bedtime. Other than two meals.
Lex Fridman
How are you sitting? Are you in a group? Is there other people there, and you’re just sitting there?
How are you sitting? Are you in a group? Is there other people there, and you’re just sitting there?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, if you’re talking about the Zen monastery, because I stayed in Zen monastery, and I did a thing with the guy I was telling you about, the integral Zen thing where he uses Ken Wilber’s work in combination with Zen. That’s a little bit different, because he does talks, we talk about things. That’s very separate from the Vedanta monasteries I’ve stayed at, which there’s very little meditation in terms of sitting silently. Instead, we are meditating on the scriptures, like the Upanishads, and we’re diving into that.
Well, if you’re talking about the Zen monastery, because I stayed in Zen monastery, and I did a thing with the guy I was telling you about, the integral Zen thing where he uses Ken Wilber’s work in combination with Zen. That’s a little bit different, because he does talks, we talk about things. That’s very separate from the Vedanta monasteries I’ve stayed at, which there’s very little meditation in terms of sitting silently. Instead, we are meditating on the scriptures, like the Upanishads, and we’re diving into that.
Lex Fridman
What were the differences, the takeaways from the experiences? The two different, the integral one and the meditating on the scriptures?
What were the differences, the takeaways from the experiences? The two different, the integral one and the meditating on the scriptures?
Tal Wilkenfeld
They’re both incredibly, have been incredibly helpful to me. Because the Vedanta, anytime I go into my head about something, the answer is there, based on this knowledge. And with the Zen monastery, it’s like you just got to put your butt in the seat, and sit and wait. And maybe something will happen, maybe it won’t, but just keep sitting. And it’s very disciplined, and you go through a lot. Your body’s purging a lot. There’s a lot, and you don’t necessarily have the answers as to what is happening. And so I think for somebody like me, I need both. I need to be in a place where there’s complete uncertainty, but complete discipline, and just doing the regimented thing. And then there’s the me that feels very satisfied from an analytical standpoint, understanding what’s happening, what is the gross, and the subtle body? I want to understand these things about what it is to be a human. I like them both.
They’re both incredibly, have been incredibly helpful to me. Because the Vedanta, anytime I go into my head about something, the answer is there, based on this knowledge. And with the Zen monastery, it’s like you just got to put your butt in the seat, and sit and wait. And maybe something will happen, maybe it won’t, but just keep sitting. And it’s very disciplined, and you go through a lot. Your body’s purging a lot. There’s a lot, and you don’t necessarily have the answers as to what is happening. And so I think for somebody like me, I need both. I need to be in a place where there’s complete uncertainty, but complete discipline, and just doing the regimented thing. And then there’s the me that feels very satisfied from an analytical standpoint, understanding what’s happening, what is the gross, and the subtle body? I want to understand these things about what it is to be a human. I like them both.
Lex Fridman
Understand what it means to be a human, so having that patience and just sitting with yourself helps you do that?
Understand what it means to be a human, so having that patience and just sitting with yourself helps you do that?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yes. More so the analysis part.
Yes. More so the analysis part.
Lex Fridman
Oh, so the analysis, the actual… okay, got it.
Oh, so the analysis, the actual… okay, got it.
Tal Wilkenfeld
But sitting with yourself, there’s no better education of facing every demon. And it’s all going to come out, and it’s not going to be pretty. But then there’s things that happen on the other side of it that are so profound.
But sitting with yourself, there’s no better education of facing every demon. And it’s all going to come out, and it’s not going to be pretty. But then there’s things that happen on the other side of it that are so profound.
Lex Fridman
Have you met most of your demons?
Have you met most of your demons?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I’ve met the demons that have come out.
I’ve met the demons that have come out.
Lex Fridman
Oh, there may be more?
Oh, there may be more?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Who knows? Yeah.
Who knows? Yeah.
Songwriting
Lex Fridman
Okay. Well, to be continued. Since I think I heard you say that you wrote a love song after Taxi Driver, what kind of love songs do you write more of? You’re a songwriter first, for people who don’t know. They might think you’re primarily a bassist.
Okay. Well, to be continued. Since I think I heard you say that you wrote a love song after Taxi Driver, what kind of love songs do you write more of? You’re a songwriter first, for people who don’t know. They might think you’re primarily a bassist.
Tal Wilkenfeld
But they’re wrong.
But they’re wrong.
Lex Fridman
Do you write mostly broken heart ones, or hopeful love songs? In love songs, about to be in love songs, soon to fall in love songs?
Do you write mostly broken heart ones, or hopeful love songs? In love songs, about to be in love songs, soon to fall in love songs?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, the last album I put out is pretty self- explanatory as to what that is.
Well, the last album I put out is pretty self- explanatory as to what that is.
Lex Fridman
A lot of pain in that one?
A lot of pain in that one?
Tal Wilkenfeld
There was, yeah. Some of it was storytelling, and some of it was real experience, and it’s always a combination of things. I serve the song. Sometimes you use your own life experience to tell a song, and sometimes you may watch a movie, and part of that script merges with your own experience, and that tells the right story for the point you’re trying to make in the song. It varies from song to song in terms of how autobiographical it is.
There was, yeah. Some of it was storytelling, and some of it was real experience, and it’s always a combination of things. I serve the song. Sometimes you use your own life experience to tell a song, and sometimes you may watch a movie, and part of that script merges with your own experience, and that tells the right story for the point you’re trying to make in the song. It varies from song to song in terms of how autobiographical it is.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I always think at the end of the Taxi Driver, when… what’s her name, Betsy? Because Travis becomes a hero, she tries to get with him, and he rejects her. That was powerful.
Yeah. I always think at the end of the Taxi Driver, when… what’s her name, Betsy? Because Travis becomes a hero, she tries to get with him, and he rejects her. That was powerful.
Tal Wilkenfeld
My favorite love songs are the ones where you’re not sure it’s about romantic love, or love of God, or love of life, or just pure love. I was thinking George Harrison writes songs like that, What is Life? Or Bob Dylan’s song that George Harrison covered, If Not for You?
My favorite love songs are the ones where you’re not sure it’s about romantic love, or love of God, or love of life, or just pure love. I was thinking George Harrison writes songs like that, What is Life? Or Bob Dylan’s song that George Harrison covered, If Not for You?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, just grateful. Grateful for his love. Yeah.
Yeah, just grateful. Grateful for his love. Yeah.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Right, right. That’s kind of like what I’m experiencing now, and so who knows what’ll end up coming out.
Right, right. That’s kind of like what I’m experiencing now, and so who knows what’ll end up coming out.
Lex Fridman
So you’ve been writing this kind of-
So you’ve been writing this kind of-
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, I’ve been writing.
Yeah, I’ve been writing.
Lex Fridman
A little bit?
A little bit?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I don’t have an intention of putting something out in any particular timeframe, but I’m just writing and letting things flow. And yeah, there’s a bunch of Leonard Cohen songs too where you’re like, there’s so many ways to interpret this song. There’s so many ways. I just love songs that aren’t so specifically about one thing.
I don’t have an intention of putting something out in any particular timeframe, but I’m just writing and letting things flow. And yeah, there’s a bunch of Leonard Cohen songs too where you’re like, there’s so many ways to interpret this song. There’s so many ways. I just love songs that aren’t so specifically about one thing.
Lex Fridman
I really love the song to play it, to listen to it, Wonderful Tonight by Eric Clapton. And I thought it was pretty straightforward. And then I had a conversation with Eric Weinstein, who’s a mutual friend of ours, and he told me it’s not about what I thought it’s about.
I really love the song to play it, to listen to it, Wonderful Tonight by Eric Clapton. And I thought it was pretty straightforward. And then I had a conversation with Eric Weinstein, who’s a mutual friend of ours, and he told me it’s not about what I thought it’s about.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Oh yeah, what did he say?
Oh yeah, what did he say?
Lex Fridman
It’s a more complicated story. It’s actually a man… Wonderful Tonight is a story about a man being just finding his wife beautiful, and appreciating it throughout. But he said it was actually a man missing his wife, he’s imagining. That she’s lost, because of the decisions he’s made in his life, so it’s pain. He had a long, beautiful Eric Weinstein-like explanation of why.
It’s a more complicated story. It’s actually a man… Wonderful Tonight is a story about a man being just finding his wife beautiful, and appreciating it throughout. But he said it was actually a man missing his wife, he’s imagining. That she’s lost, because of the decisions he’s made in his life, so it’s pain. He had a long, beautiful Eric Weinstein-like explanation of why.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I love those.
I love those.
Lex Fridman
Have you and Eric played music?
Have you and Eric played music?
Tal Wilkenfeld
No. We’ve just hung out and had very long conversations about everything.
No. We’ve just hung out and had very long conversations about everything.
Lex Fridman
He’s a bit of a musician, you know?
He’s a bit of a musician, you know?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
How to learn and practice
Lex Fridman
Okay. You picked up the guitar when you were 14, let’s go back. And one interesting thing that just jumped out at me is you said you learned how to practice in your head, because you only had 30 minutes. Your parents would only let you practice for 30 minutes. I read somewhere that Coltrane did the same. Not the practice part, but he was able to play instruments in his head as a way to think through different lines, different musical thoughts, that kind of stuff. Maybe, can you tell the story of that?
Okay. You picked up the guitar when you were 14, let’s go back. And one interesting thing that just jumped out at me is you said you learned how to practice in your head, because you only had 30 minutes. Your parents would only let you practice for 30 minutes. I read somewhere that Coltrane did the same. Not the practice part, but he was able to play instruments in his head as a way to think through different lines, different musical thoughts, that kind of stuff. Maybe, can you tell the story of that?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. I just grew up in an environment that was focused on academia. And I fell in love with guitar, and really just wanted the focus to be that. My limit was 30 minutes a day for, I don’t even remember how many times a week. Might’ve been every day, five days a week, whatever.
Yeah. I just grew up in an environment that was focused on academia. And I fell in love with guitar, and really just wanted the focus to be that. My limit was 30 minutes a day for, I don’t even remember how many times a week. Might’ve been every day, five days a week, whatever.
Lex Fridman
So your parents didn’t want you to play more than that?
So your parents didn’t want you to play more than that?
Tal Wilkenfeld
No. And so, I just learned how to visualize the fretboard in my head, and I’d practice all day in my head. It’s kind of like, you know The Queen’s Gambit, the TV show with Anya Taylor-Joy, and she just on the ceiling? I used to do that with the fretboard, and just practice. And I actually recommend it to every musician. Because if you’re just practicing here, you don’t know what is more dominant necessarily, is it this or is it your motor skills? If you just take that away and do it here, you know you’ve got it. I’m glad that that happened and that I learned how to do that.
No. And so, I just learned how to visualize the fretboard in my head, and I’d practice all day in my head. It’s kind of like, you know The Queen’s Gambit, the TV show with Anya Taylor-Joy, and she just on the ceiling? I used to do that with the fretboard, and just practice. And I actually recommend it to every musician. Because if you’re just practicing here, you don’t know what is more dominant necessarily, is it this or is it your motor skills? If you just take that away and do it here, you know you’ve got it. I’m glad that that happened and that I learned how to do that.
And in terms of learning fast, because I had to try to absorb a lot of information in a short amount of time when I did have the instrument, I kind of would do things in bursts. Even in that half an hour, I would just play for a couple minutes, and then I’d stop for a minute. And then I’d do it again, and I noticed there was a huge difference between the first time and the second time. Whereas if I just kept repeating stuff, it would be much slower.
Lex Fridman
What did you do in that minute?
What did you do in that minute?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Just hang out.
Just hang out.
Lex Fridman
Just integrate?
Just integrate?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. It’s like my brain was telling me, just chill out for a sec. That’s enough information. Let me take a second to integrate that. That’s at least what it felt like to me. And the most hilarious thing happened a couple months ago. I know you’re friends with Andrew Huberman. He put out some clip, which was a part of one of his podcasts, about learning. And he said that there was some research done on learning fast, and that if you practice something for a minute or so, and then you let your brain rest for 30 seconds or a minute, that in that 30 seconds or a minute, your brain does the repetition 20 to 30 times faster, and in reverse. And I was like, whoa, that’s so cool. Because that’s what I used to do when I was a kid, now there’s science that proves that. Which is really cool for musicians to know that that’s a good way to practice efficiently. Because some musicians, they’re practicing for six, seven, eight hours a day. I’ve never done that. I’ve never practiced more than an hour a day, even now. That’s my technique, and it works.
Yeah. It’s like my brain was telling me, just chill out for a sec. That’s enough information. Let me take a second to integrate that. That’s at least what it felt like to me. And the most hilarious thing happened a couple months ago. I know you’re friends with Andrew Huberman. He put out some clip, which was a part of one of his podcasts, about learning. And he said that there was some research done on learning fast, and that if you practice something for a minute or so, and then you let your brain rest for 30 seconds or a minute, that in that 30 seconds or a minute, your brain does the repetition 20 to 30 times faster, and in reverse. And I was like, whoa, that’s so cool. Because that’s what I used to do when I was a kid, now there’s science that proves that. Which is really cool for musicians to know that that’s a good way to practice efficiently. Because some musicians, they’re practicing for six, seven, eight hours a day. I’ve never done that. I’ve never practiced more than an hour a day, even now. That’s my technique, and it works.
Lex Fridman
Are you also practicing in your head sometimes?
Are you also practicing in your head sometimes?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Now, I’m not practicing as much. I’m more always writing songs in my head, so that’s why I like silence. That’s why I love being in the empty hotel room and being alone. Songs come to me while I’m showering, or walking around, doing the dishes. Or occasionally when I’m hanging out with friends, or comedians, and people will just say shit. And I’ll be like, that’s a cool line. Just jot it down on my phone.
Now, I’m not practicing as much. I’m more always writing songs in my head, so that’s why I like silence. That’s why I love being in the empty hotel room and being alone. Songs come to me while I’m showering, or walking around, doing the dishes. Or occasionally when I’m hanging out with friends, or comedians, and people will just say shit. And I’ll be like, that’s a cool line. Just jot it down on my phone.
Lex Fridman
So it’s not always musical, it’s sometimes lyrical.
So it’s not always musical, it’s sometimes lyrical.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s more lyrical than musical now. Because for me it’s like, well, there’s so much music in the world. If I’m going to write a song, I want the song to be about something interesting. And so, yeah, the words matter to me.
It’s more lyrical than musical now. Because for me it’s like, well, there’s so much music in the world. If I’m going to write a song, I want the song to be about something interesting. And so, yeah, the words matter to me.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And the right word has so much power. It’s crazy, like we said with Leonard Cohen. And then they’re often simple, the really powerful ones are simple.
Yeah. And the right word has so much power. It’s crazy, like we said with Leonard Cohen. And then they’re often simple, the really powerful ones are simple.
Tal Wilkenfeld
And when you mentioned Hallelujah, he wrote like 80 verses to Hallelujah before he narrowed it down to four. And it took him like 15, 20 years to write that song. Some writers will do that, and then other writers just vomit it out and it’s beautiful. I’ve heard that Bob Dylan or Joni Mitchell, they’re fast writers. It just kind of comes out.
And when you mentioned Hallelujah, he wrote like 80 verses to Hallelujah before he narrowed it down to four. And it took him like 15, 20 years to write that song. Some writers will do that, and then other writers just vomit it out and it’s beautiful. I’ve heard that Bob Dylan or Joni Mitchell, they’re fast writers. It just kind of comes out.
Lex Fridman
That makes me feel so good to know Leonard Cohen wrote so many verses of that. That was so deliberately crafted, extensively rigorously crafted.
That makes me feel so good to know Leonard Cohen wrote so many verses of that. That was so deliberately crafted, extensively rigorously crafted.
Tal Wilkenfeld
He just would spend months and years, constantly refining, refining.
He just would spend months and years, constantly refining, refining.
Lex Fridman
Do you have songs like that for yourself, where you refine for many years?
Do you have songs like that for yourself, where you refine for many years?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, it’s song dependent. Some just flow out and it’s like, oh, there it is. Everything’s there. And then other songs, it’s like, you might have started it with music, and there’s some words that come out. And then trying to fill in the rest of the words, sometimes it can be like a square peg in a round hole, and other times it’s like, oh no, I can… it depends. Sometimes it becomes like a math problem, and hopefully it doesn’t. Because you just want to say what’s right for the song. And usually when you write it all together, like the lyric, and the melody, and the chords and everything’s developing at once, at least for the first draft, that’s very, very helpful. Sondheim used to write like that. He wouldn’t move on until… he would just go this way. Whereas for me it’s just like, I’ll just go with what seems to be coming naturally, and I’ll just let it be what it is. And then you come back and you say okay, well, what-
Yeah, it’s song dependent. Some just flow out and it’s like, oh, there it is. Everything’s there. And then other songs, it’s like, you might have started it with music, and there’s some words that come out. And then trying to fill in the rest of the words, sometimes it can be like a square peg in a round hole, and other times it’s like, oh no, I can… it depends. Sometimes it becomes like a math problem, and hopefully it doesn’t. Because you just want to say what’s right for the song. And usually when you write it all together, like the lyric, and the melody, and the chords and everything’s developing at once, at least for the first draft, that’s very, very helpful. Sondheim used to write like that. He wouldn’t move on until… he would just go this way. Whereas for me it’s just like, I’ll just go with what seems to be coming naturally, and I’ll just let it be what it is. And then you come back and you say okay, well, what-
Tal Wilkenfeld
Truly, and I’ll just let it be what it is. And then you come back and you say, okay, well what do I have to do to this now? What’s needed?
Truly, and I’ll just let it be what it is. And then you come back and you say, okay, well what do I have to do to this now? What’s needed?
Lex Fridman
Just to linger on the learning process, what would you recommend for young musicians on how to get good? What are the different paths a person can take to understand it deeply enough to create something special?
Just to linger on the learning process, what would you recommend for young musicians on how to get good? What are the different paths a person can take to understand it deeply enough to create something special?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I think first and foremost, understanding why you are playing music. If it’s because you have something that you’re trying to express or that you’re just in love with expression itself, with art itself, those are great reasons to start this journey.
I think first and foremost, understanding why you are playing music. If it’s because you have something that you’re trying to express or that you’re just in love with expression itself, with art itself, those are great reasons to start this journey.
Lex Fridman
The why should be-
The why should be-
Tal Wilkenfeld
I think the why is really important because it’s a jagged lifestyle and there’s a lot in it. And so if you don’t have your purpose, if you’re not centered in your purpose, then all that jagged lifestyle is probably going to get to you.
I think the why is really important because it’s a jagged lifestyle and there’s a lot in it. And so if you don’t have your purpose, if you’re not centered in your purpose, then all that jagged lifestyle is probably going to get to you.
Lex Fridman
Jagged.
Jagged.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s jagged.
It’s jagged.
Lex Fridman
Interesting word.
Interesting word.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, it’s jagged. It’s all over the place. It’s uncertain. It’s one thing one moment, and a completely different thing another moment. You never know what’s going to happen. And if you thrive on variety, which I love variety, then it’s perfect. But also every human being needs a certain amount of certainty and structure, and so the certainty can come from your inner knowing knowing that you’re doing exactly what you want to be doing and knowing what your purpose is in doing it in this expression. Otherwise, you’re just kind of like a leaf blowing in the wind.
Yeah, it’s jagged. It’s all over the place. It’s uncertain. It’s one thing one moment, and a completely different thing another moment. You never know what’s going to happen. And if you thrive on variety, which I love variety, then it’s perfect. But also every human being needs a certain amount of certainty and structure, and so the certainty can come from your inner knowing knowing that you’re doing exactly what you want to be doing and knowing what your purpose is in doing it in this expression. Otherwise, you’re just kind of like a leaf blowing in the wind.
Lex Fridman
In the early days touring, just playing clubs seems like tough.
In the early days touring, just playing clubs seems like tough.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It’s a lot.
It’s a lot.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, it’s a lot of the physical labor aspect of it is really hard. Playing on stage to two people, or 2000, or 20,000, that doesn’t make a difference. I mean, it makes a difference to the ticket sales, which informs what level of luxury you might have on the road or not. But other than that, it’s just people there listening to music. The music doesn’t change.
Yeah, it’s a lot of the physical labor aspect of it is really hard. Playing on stage to two people, or 2000, or 20,000, that doesn’t make a difference. I mean, it makes a difference to the ticket sales, which informs what level of luxury you might have on the road or not. But other than that, it’s just people there listening to music. The music doesn’t change.
Lex Fridman
Does it make it tough when it’s two people versus 200?
Does it make it tough when it’s two people versus 200?
Tal Wilkenfeld
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
So even if nobody recognizes whatever the thing you’re doing.
So even if nobody recognizes whatever the thing you’re doing.
Tal Wilkenfeld
No, because the idea is to be having a great conversation on stage.
No, because the idea is to be having a great conversation on stage.
Lex Fridman
The audience can come and go.
The audience can come and go.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. I always, there’s certain points in shows where I am just like, I consciously am like, oh yes, there’s an audience over there. So wrapped up in whatever’s happening on stage.
Yeah. I always, there’s certain points in shows where I am just like, I consciously am like, oh yes, there’s an audience over there. So wrapped up in whatever’s happening on stage.
Lex Fridman
You forget yourself.
You forget yourself.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Or maybe I’m remembering myself.
Or maybe I’m remembering myself.
Lex Fridman
Oh, damn. Call back, somehow feels like one. Okay. You think every instrument is its own journey. You play guitar, you play bass, you sing, just the mastery of an instrument, or let’s avoid the word mastery, the understanding of an instrument is its own thing, or are they somehow physical manifestations of the same thing?
Oh, damn. Call back, somehow feels like one. Okay. You think every instrument is its own journey. You play guitar, you play bass, you sing, just the mastery of an instrument, or let’s avoid the word mastery, the understanding of an instrument is its own thing, or are they somehow physical manifestations of the same thing?
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s both. Every instrument has its strengths, beauty, limitations, range, possible range that can be extended to some degree or another depending on who you are, like trumpet or something. Certain people can hit higher notes than others, blah, blah, blah. But that being said, we’re all playing the same 12 or 24, however you divide the octave, that many notes. We’re all playing the same notes. So in that sense, it’s all the same thing. It’s just music or better yet it’s just art or expression. But yeah, every instrument has, you’ve got to go through the physical aspects of it, the motor skills and all of that, and hopefully you get through that really quickly so you can get to the expression quickly because if you get stuck in just that first phase, that’d be really boring.
It’s both. Every instrument has its strengths, beauty, limitations, range, possible range that can be extended to some degree or another depending on who you are, like trumpet or something. Certain people can hit higher notes than others, blah, blah, blah. But that being said, we’re all playing the same 12 or 24, however you divide the octave, that many notes. We’re all playing the same notes. So in that sense, it’s all the same thing. It’s just music or better yet it’s just art or expression. But yeah, every instrument has, you’ve got to go through the physical aspects of it, the motor skills and all of that, and hopefully you get through that really quickly so you can get to the expression quickly because if you get stuck in just that first phase, that’d be really boring.
Lex Fridman
But that’s a pretty long phase. The technical skill required to really play an instrument.
But that’s a pretty long phase. The technical skill required to really play an instrument.
Tal Wilkenfeld
For some people it’s a long thing, and some people it’s short. It very much varies. It might have to do with how you learn and getting to know your strengths in learning. More oral, or is it more… What’s your strength and playing off of those strengths. So for me, like I was saying earlier, it was just an intuitive thing that I knew. I can feel when my brain is full that it needs processing time. And so I listened to that. I don’t push past it, even if it’s one minute and I do something, I’m like, okay. Silence. And then I come back and I trust that it’s going to be there and it is there. So just trusting yourself I think is really important. Trusting that you know better than anybody else is going to know you.
For some people it’s a long thing, and some people it’s short. It very much varies. It might have to do with how you learn and getting to know your strengths in learning. More oral, or is it more… What’s your strength and playing off of those strengths. So for me, like I was saying earlier, it was just an intuitive thing that I knew. I can feel when my brain is full that it needs processing time. And so I listened to that. I don’t push past it, even if it’s one minute and I do something, I’m like, okay. Silence. And then I come back and I trust that it’s going to be there and it is there. So just trusting yourself I think is really important. Trusting that you know better than anybody else is going to know you.
So that’s the kind of thing with teachers that can be either really, really helpful and great or really not great. I’m primarily self-taught. I’ve had amazing mentors of all walks of life, and I think I’m unbelievably blessed that my mentors are some of my favorite musicians on Earth, whether it’s Leonard Cohen or Jeff Beck or Wayne Shorter, whoever these people are, they are my favorite musicians. So not everyone has that opportunity, but what the opportunity that we have now that I didn’t have when I was starting is that everything’s on YouTube. Every interview with every genius. You don’t need to necessarily have these people in person now. I mean, and then I’ll say to that, yes and no. I agree with myself, and then I don’t agree with myself. And the reason is I do believe that there is something that happens when you’re in person with a master in some cases, that there is something transferred that is not intellectual, it’s not spoken, it’s something else that happens, that can happen, that I’ve experienced, and I really value that.
Lex Fridman
And I think that applies to specific disciplines and also generally. I’ve been around Olympic gold medalists just to hang out with them for several days, and there’s something about greatness. There’s a way about them that permeates the space around them. You kind of learn something from it, even if you don’t practice that particular discipline, there’s something to it if you’re able to see it. I also like what you said about the playing stuff in your head, that it forces you to not be lost in the physical learning of the instrument. I think that’s one of the things I probably regret a little bit. So I play both piano and guitar, and I’ve become quite, over the years, technically proficient at the instruments.
And I think that applies to specific disciplines and also generally. I’ve been around Olympic gold medalists just to hang out with them for several days, and there’s something about greatness. There’s a way about them that permeates the space around them. You kind of learn something from it, even if you don’t practice that particular discipline, there’s something to it if you’re able to see it. I also like what you said about the playing stuff in your head, that it forces you to not be lost in the physical learning of the instrument. I think that’s one of the things I probably regret a little bit. So I play both piano and guitar, and I’ve become quite, over the years, technically proficient at the instruments.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I’ve seen.
I’ve seen.
Lex Fridman
But I think my mind is underdeveloped because of that, meaning I can’t really… I can feel the music when it’s created, but I can’t create out of the feeling. I haven’t practiced projecting the feeling onto the music. You know what I mean? I’m not like a musician. It’s a different muscle that I think is if you really want to create beautiful things, you have to, the creation happens here, not with your hands.
But I think my mind is underdeveloped because of that, meaning I can’t really… I can feel the music when it’s created, but I can’t create out of the feeling. I haven’t practiced projecting the feeling onto the music. You know what I mean? I’m not like a musician. It’s a different muscle that I think is if you really want to create beautiful things, you have to, the creation happens here, not with your hands.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I think it’s more here.
I think it’s more here.
Lex Fridman
Or whichever it is, some part of the body, but it’s not with your fingers.
Or whichever it is, some part of the body, but it’s not with your fingers.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, because I think the fingers is more of this.
Yeah, because I think the fingers is more of this.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Tal Wilkenfeld
And then…
And then…
Lex Fridman
Yes, it is here.
Yes, it is here.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Right. And it’s just nice that you said that because it’s really good advice if you want to create.
Right. And it’s just nice that you said that because it’s really good advice if you want to create.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, slowing down is really great too.
Yeah, slowing down is really great too.
Lex Fridman
What do you mean slowing down?
What do you mean slowing down?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Slowing everything down? It could be, I can play something really fast, but I may want to practice it like…
Slowing everything down? It could be, I can play something really fast, but I may want to practice it like…
Lex Fridman
Go slow as possible.
Go slow as possible.
Tal Wilkenfeld
All these micro movements that are happening that if you just go, you can’t pay as close attention to the exact tone that you’re pulling from each note. And there’s a lot to pay attention to how my fingers are touching the string here. I can change my tone a million ways just by the direction of this finger, and same with how this lands and how hard I’m attacking the string and with what intention am I hitting the string emotionally, physically, and so even if you can go, play that so slow, see how locked into a pocket you can be, see how you… Feel every aspect of that because then when it gets sped up, it’s still there with you.
All these micro movements that are happening that if you just go, you can’t pay as close attention to the exact tone that you’re pulling from each note. And there’s a lot to pay attention to how my fingers are touching the string here. I can change my tone a million ways just by the direction of this finger, and same with how this lands and how hard I’m attacking the string and with what intention am I hitting the string emotionally, physically, and so even if you can go, play that so slow, see how locked into a pocket you can be, see how you… Feel every aspect of that because then when it gets sped up, it’s still there with you.
Lex Fridman
That is brilliant.
That is brilliant.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s like the transcended and included thing that Ken Wilbert talks about.
It’s like the transcended and included thing that Ken Wilbert talks about.
Lex Fridman
I guess that’s what meditation can do for you is to really listen, to observe every aspect of your body, the breath and all this. Here you’re observing every element, every super detailed element, of playing a single note.
I guess that’s what meditation can do for you is to really listen, to observe every aspect of your body, the breath and all this. Here you’re observing every element, every super detailed element, of playing a single note.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It’s cool that if you speed it up, it’s still there with you.
It’s cool that if you speed it up, it’s still there with you.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It is, Yeah it is. Because there are certain people, it’s like they play really fast, but I don’t hear the fullness of tone always. And it’s like, well, it’s probably because maybe they didn’t slow it down and really sit with each note and let it resonate through their whole being. It’s spiritual. It’s like a spiritual expression. It’s not a sport. A lot of people treat music like a sport.
It is, Yeah it is. Because there are certain people, it’s like they play really fast, but I don’t hear the fullness of tone always. And it’s like, well, it’s probably because maybe they didn’t slow it down and really sit with each note and let it resonate through their whole being. It’s spiritual. It’s like a spiritual expression. It’s not a sport. A lot of people treat music like a sport.
Lex Fridman
Since starting to learn more like Stevie Ray Vaughan versus Jimi Hendrix. I would spend quite a long time on single notes of just bending, just listening to what you can do with bends, spending. Just thinking people like B.B King and all these blues musicians spend a career just making a single note cry. There’s an art form to that.
Since starting to learn more like Stevie Ray Vaughan versus Jimi Hendrix. I would spend quite a long time on single notes of just bending, just listening to what you can do with bends, spending. Just thinking people like B.B King and all these blues musicians spend a career just making a single note cry. There’s an art form to that.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And I think you putting it, taking it really slow, which I never really thought of, is really good idea. Really slow it down.
And I think you putting it, taking it really slow, which I never really thought of, is really good idea. Really slow it down.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s the same with sitting with your own emotions. It’s like when emotions are overwhelming to us, we get real busy or we move real fast because we don’t want to feel our feelings. Those are the moments to slow yourself down.
It’s the same with sitting with your own emotions. It’s like when emotions are overwhelming to us, we get real busy or we move real fast because we don’t want to feel our feelings. Those are the moments to slow yourself down.
Lex Fridman
And observe it, anger, jealousy, loneliness.
And observe it, anger, jealousy, loneliness.
Tal Wilkenfeld
And just be with it. Be cool with it. Love it. Love the anger.
And just be with it. Be cool with it. Love it. Love the anger.
Lex Fridman
It’s all beautiful. Can you educate me on the difference between bass.
It’s all beautiful. Can you educate me on the difference between bass.
Slap vs Fingerstyle
Tal Wilkenfeld
Bass and bass? Okay, well, one is a fish.
Bass and bass? Okay, well, one is a fish.
Lex Fridman
At least I pronounced it correctly. That’s good. It’s all about the bass.
At least I pronounced it correctly. That’s good. It’s all about the bass.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Can you pronounce my name?
Can you pronounce my name?
Lex Fridman
Tal.
Tal.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Wow. Most people say Tal or tall. You said-
Wow. Most people say Tal or tall. You said-
Lex Fridman
Tall, who says tall?
Tall, who says tall?
Tal Wilkenfeld
So many people.
So many people.
Lex Fridman
In the south, maybe tall.
In the south, maybe tall.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I don’t know. But the fact that you said my name right.
I don’t know. But the fact that you said my name right.
Lex Fridman
Oh, honey tall.
Oh, honey tall.
Tal Wilkenfeld
You get extra points.
You get extra points.
Lex Fridman
Tal. I didn’t know this was a game. Am I winning?
Tal. I didn’t know this was a game. Am I winning?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yep.
Yep.
Lex Fridman
I like winning. How do you play the bass? What’s the difference between finger style and slap?
I like winning. How do you play the bass? What’s the difference between finger style and slap?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Slap is like this finger styles like this.
Slap is like this finger styles like this.
Lex Fridman
Have you ever played bass with a pick?
Have you ever played bass with a pick?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, sometimes
Yeah, sometimes
Lex Fridman
I’m not accusing you of anything.
I’m not accusing you of anything.
Tal Wilkenfeld
No accusation taken.
No accusation taken.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know if these are sensitive topics.
I don’t know if these are sensitive topics.
Tal Wilkenfeld
That would be pretty hilarious if I was sensitive about bass techniques, but not about love.
That would be pretty hilarious if I was sensitive about bass techniques, but not about love.
Lex Fridman
It just looks so cool to slap it, and I don’t understand what that’s about. That thumb thing that…
It just looks so cool to slap it, and I don’t understand what that’s about. That thumb thing that…
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, I slapped less, a lot less. Almost never actually. It has a very distinctive sound and does a very distinctive thing to a song that is not something I hear needed very often in music today, but in certain styles, like funk, it sounds awesome and it makes sense. It was something that was a bit overused at one point. For instance, my mentor Anthony Jackson, he refused to slap. He actually said, if you want me to slap, I’ll leave this gig. So I’m not like that.
Yeah, I slapped less, a lot less. Almost never actually. It has a very distinctive sound and does a very distinctive thing to a song that is not something I hear needed very often in music today, but in certain styles, like funk, it sounds awesome and it makes sense. It was something that was a bit overused at one point. For instance, my mentor Anthony Jackson, he refused to slap. He actually said, if you want me to slap, I’ll leave this gig. So I’m not like that.
Lex Fridman
See, that’s why I said sensitive. See, I was reading into it.
See, that’s why I said sensitive. See, I was reading into it.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Because he’s sensitive about it. I’m not sensitive.
Because he’s sensitive about it. I’m not sensitive.
Lex Fridman
I was feeling the spiritual energy of the sensitivity of the topic.
I was feeling the spiritual energy of the sensitivity of the topic.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Anthony Jackson.
Anthony Jackson.
Lex Fridman
Anthony Jackson.
Anthony Jackson.
Tal Wilkenfeld
And then I’m playing electric bass, so generally speaking, you don’t particularly want to hear electric bass on straight-ahead Jazz anyway, you want to hear an upright bass. But if I was to play jazz on electric bass, I might even palm mute instead of going like, I might go to very. Anything to make the notes shorter and less resonant and fade away because the upright does that naturally. And I have a different bass, like a hollow body harmony that sounds closer to an upright that I’ll use. In on my song Under the Sun, that I put out, that was on a harmony bass. And it has an upright acoustic kind of tone to it, but with more sustain.
And then I’m playing electric bass, so generally speaking, you don’t particularly want to hear electric bass on straight-ahead Jazz anyway, you want to hear an upright bass. But if I was to play jazz on electric bass, I might even palm mute instead of going like, I might go to very. Anything to make the notes shorter and less resonant and fade away because the upright does that naturally. And I have a different bass, like a hollow body harmony that sounds closer to an upright that I’ll use. In on my song Under the Sun, that I put out, that was on a harmony bass. And it has an upright acoustic kind of tone to it, but with more sustain.
Lex Fridman
And is Jazz fusion the style where you have an electric bass? Can you educate me?
And is Jazz fusion the style where you have an electric bass? Can you educate me?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Again, you can have both. You can have both. You can have either on anything. There’s no real rules, now.
Again, you can have both. You can have both. You can have either on anything. There’s no real rules, now.
Lex Fridman
I’ve heard you say something interesting, which is, well, a lot of things you say is interesting.
I’ve heard you say something interesting, which is, well, a lot of things you say is interesting.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Just one thing.
Just one thing.
Lex Fridman
Just one. That-
Just one. That-
Tal Wilkenfeld
And it’s what time you’re leaving.
And it’s what time you’re leaving.
Lex Fridman
What time was that again?
What time was that again?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Three minutes.
Three minutes.
Lex Fridman
That it’s maybe easier sometimes to define a musical genre by the don’ts than the do’s, the don’ts, than the do’s. What are the don’ts of jazz and rock? What are the don’ts of jazz fusion? What are the don’ts? At any domain of life, what are the don’ts?
That it’s maybe easier sometimes to define a musical genre by the don’ts than the do’s, the don’ts, than the do’s. What are the don’ts of jazz and rock? What are the don’ts of jazz fusion? What are the don’ts? At any domain of life, what are the don’ts?
Tal Wilkenfeld
The don’ts is just to please leave your fear at the door and your do’s is to be open to anything and open your ears, respond to what’s happening now. I think that quote you’re talking about might have been more about an individual musician’s unique sound, because everyone has their sound. If they’ve developed their voice and they’ve listened to their own aesthetic preferences, of which everyone is slightly different, everyone has slightly different likes and dislikes, then you’ll have a unique sound on your instrument. And your unique sound is defined more by the choices you make rather than… I mean, it’s equally as defined by the choices you make and the choices you don’t make. I mean, it’s the flip side of the same coin, really?
The don’ts is just to please leave your fear at the door and your do’s is to be open to anything and open your ears, respond to what’s happening now. I think that quote you’re talking about might have been more about an individual musician’s unique sound, because everyone has their sound. If they’ve developed their voice and they’ve listened to their own aesthetic preferences, of which everyone is slightly different, everyone has slightly different likes and dislikes, then you’ll have a unique sound on your instrument. And your unique sound is defined more by the choices you make rather than… I mean, it’s equally as defined by the choices you make and the choices you don’t make. I mean, it’s the flip side of the same coin, really?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. There’s certain musicians you can just tell. It’s them just, you hear a few notes and you’re like, okay, it’s them. Tone, sometimes it’s tone. Sometimes it’s the way they play a rhythm.
Yeah. There’s certain musicians you can just tell. It’s them just, you hear a few notes and you’re like, okay, it’s them. Tone, sometimes it’s tone. Sometimes it’s the way they play a rhythm.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, the quote you’re talking about might have even had to do with someone’s real limitations on an instrument that then that would define their sound as the things that they actually can’t do versus what you’re choosing to do versus not choosing to do. Which is that flip side of the same coin thing,
Yeah, the quote you’re talking about might have even had to do with someone’s real limitations on an instrument that then that would define their sound as the things that they actually can’t do versus what you’re choosing to do versus not choosing to do. Which is that flip side of the same coin thing,
Lex Fridman
How many fingers you play with, because it seems like a lot of the greatest musicians aren’t technically perfect. The imperfections is the thing that makes them unique and where a lot of the creativity comes from. I mean, Hendrix had a lot of those things. The way he put a thumb over the top.
How many fingers you play with, because it seems like a lot of the greatest musicians aren’t technically perfect. The imperfections is the thing that makes them unique and where a lot of the creativity comes from. I mean, Hendrix had a lot of those things. The way he put a thumb over the top.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, his hands were huge. There was no other place for the thumb to go. And it was great that he could reach the E string and that was an advantage.
Well, his hands were huge. There was no other place for the thumb to go. And it was great that he could reach the E string and that was an advantage.
Lex Fridman
And he was a lefty playing a right-handed guitar, flipped, I guess. That’s weird. That probably doesn’t have much of an effect. Maybe a spiritual one. I don’t know.
And he was a lefty playing a right-handed guitar, flipped, I guess. That’s weird. That probably doesn’t have much of an effect. Maybe a spiritual one. I don’t know.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Actually, flipping and guitar is different. It does bring out something different in you because I’ve done it, flipped it. It’s like, oh wow. Yeah, it really, it’s really different. I remember talking about osteopath about, because there’s so much weight on this shoulder while I’m playing all the time, and they were saying, well, just after shows, just literally just turn it upside down and do the exact same thing in the opposite way. It’ll even out your body. And I was like, that’s good advice.
Actually, flipping and guitar is different. It does bring out something different in you because I’ve done it, flipped it. It’s like, oh wow. Yeah, it really, it’s really different. I remember talking about osteopath about, because there’s so much weight on this shoulder while I’m playing all the time, and they were saying, well, just after shows, just literally just turn it upside down and do the exact same thing in the opposite way. It’ll even out your body. And I was like, that’s good advice.
Lex Fridman
Have you actually tried it? Okay. All right, I’ll write that down. All right. Well, do you know a guy named Davie504?
Have you actually tried it? Okay. All right, I’ll write that down. All right. Well, do you know a guy named Davie504?
Davie504
Tal Wilkenfeld
I’ve heard of him.
I’ve heard of him.
Lex Fridman
I’ve recently learned of him. He’s a YouTuber and a bass player. He’s amazing.
I’ve recently learned of him. He’s a YouTuber and a bass player. He’s amazing.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Cool.
Cool.
Lex Fridman
He combines memes and also just these brilliant bass compositions and says slap like a lot. He’s big into slapping. He’s the one that made me realize this is a thing. And he also said that you’re one of the best, if not the best, bassists in the world. There was a bunch of his fans that wrote in and he analyzed the Jeff Beck thing that we watched at Crossroads is one of the greatest solos ever, bass solos ever. So shout out to him. What does that make you feel like you’re the greatest of all time?
He combines memes and also just these brilliant bass compositions and says slap like a lot. He’s big into slapping. He’s the one that made me realize this is a thing. And he also said that you’re one of the best, if not the best, bassists in the world. There was a bunch of his fans that wrote in and he analyzed the Jeff Beck thing that we watched at Crossroads is one of the greatest solos ever, bass solos ever. So shout out to him. What does that make you feel like you’re the greatest of all time?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Chocolate cookies.
Chocolate cookies.
Lex Fridman
Chocolate. Is that your favorite?
Chocolate. Is that your favorite?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I like macadamia nut. If you really want to get into it, with white chocolate.
I like macadamia nut. If you really want to get into it, with white chocolate.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s a rare one for people to say is the favorite.
Yeah, that’s a rare one for people to say is the favorite.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Chocolate chip is just so easy. You can kind of get them anywhere.
Chocolate chip is just so easy. You can kind of get them anywhere.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Last thing you want to be is easy in this world. You don’t want to be easy. You said that I love Rock and Roll quote, “I love folk. I love jazz. I love Indian classical music. I really love all kinds of music as long as it’s authentic and from the heart.” So when you play rock versus jazz, you play all kinds of music. What’s the difference technically, musically, spiritually for you?
Yeah. Last thing you want to be is easy in this world. You don’t want to be easy. You said that I love Rock and Roll quote, “I love folk. I love jazz. I love Indian classical music. I really love all kinds of music as long as it’s authentic and from the heart.” So when you play rock versus jazz, you play all kinds of music. What’s the difference technically, musically, spiritually for you?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, there’s no spiritual difference.
Well, there’s no spiritual difference.
Lex Fridman
Okay. All right. Cross that off the list,
Okay. All right. Cross that off the list,
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, musically, yeah, it’s like what was saying earlier, it’s like each genre has its language of what makes it that genre. And that would be a good thing to say. It’s defined by the do’s and don’ts, but because it’s like… I’m trying to think. Basically I put the song first and I think of the song as the melody, the lyrics, and then the harmony and obviously the groove.
Well, musically, yeah, it’s like what was saying earlier, it’s like each genre has its language of what makes it that genre. And that would be a good thing to say. It’s defined by the do’s and don’ts, but because it’s like… I’m trying to think. Basically I put the song first and I think of the song as the melody, the lyrics, and then the harmony and obviously the groove.
Lex Fridman
So the song goes before the genre in a sense. Each song is like its own thing.
So the song goes before the genre in a sense. Each song is like its own thing.
Tal Wilkenfeld
They’re both things that are held in my mind. It’s like, okay, genre and then song, which is comprised of those basic elements. And I tend to kind of prioritize lyric because somebody is trying to express something over music. And so the lyric is very, very important. And so then the choices come from there. It’s like, okay, within the genre of X this is the typical language. And then how do I best serve this lyric? And then where else can I pull from that might not be in these two bags that would put a little twist on it. So those are all the kinds of things I might be thinking about.
They’re both things that are held in my mind. It’s like, okay, genre and then song, which is comprised of those basic elements. And I tend to kind of prioritize lyric because somebody is trying to express something over music. And so the lyric is very, very important. And so then the choices come from there. It’s like, okay, within the genre of X this is the typical language. And then how do I best serve this lyric? And then where else can I pull from that might not be in these two bags that would put a little twist on it. So those are all the kinds of things I might be thinking about.
But I don’t like twists for the sake of twists either. I like twists because I want to hear something that might be fresh. But when someone does something just to be hip, it’s annoying to me. I think you can hear the difference. It’s like when people, they write in odd time signatures or they write all these riffs just because they can, just because they have the chops to do it or they know how to play in 11/16 and whatever. But if it’s not actually creating a piece of music that’s going to move somebody, then why are you doing it? And so I think a lot of the questions I’m asking myself when I’m approaching a song or mainly philosophical and aesthetic.
Lex Fridman
So you like to stand on the edge of the cliff, not for the thrill of it, but because where you find something new potentially.
So you like to stand on the edge of the cliff, not for the thrill of it, but because where you find something new potentially.
Tal Wilkenfeld
And it’s thrilling.
And it’s thrilling.
Lex Fridman
But you’re not doing it just for the thrill.
But you’re not doing it just for the thrill.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I’m not doing it for the thrill. It just happens to be thrilling.
I’m not doing it for the thrill. It just happens to be thrilling.
Lex Fridman
All right.
All right.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Because you can always reel it back in.
Because you can always reel it back in.
Lex Fridman
Can you though?
Can you though?
Prince
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. You can do a totally disciplined, I can go into a session and… Okay, my favorite thing about going into a session with musicians that I adore is that we don’t hear the demo because if you hear a demo, you’re hearing what the producer or songwriter have already imagined that every instrument is playing. And then it’s like well, I’ve already heard what you want. Now my mind, part of my mind, is focused on what I already know you want and what the destination is going to be. Why did you bring me in here? I want to not hear it. I just want you to sit at a piano and sing the song, I want to hear the chords and the lyric or sit with an acoustic guitar, play it, and then let’s all go in the room.
Yeah. You can do a totally disciplined, I can go into a session and… Okay, my favorite thing about going into a session with musicians that I adore is that we don’t hear the demo because if you hear a demo, you’re hearing what the producer or songwriter have already imagined that every instrument is playing. And then it’s like well, I’ve already heard what you want. Now my mind, part of my mind, is focused on what I already know you want and what the destination is going to be. Why did you bring me in here? I want to not hear it. I just want you to sit at a piano and sing the song, I want to hear the chords and the lyric or sit with an acoustic guitar, play it, and then let’s all go in the room.
And then take one, I would say 80% of the time, take one has the most gold and there might be a mistake or two or someone forgot to go to the B section and you might want to punch that in so that you’re hitting the right chord. But all the magic is in that take. And then sometimes it happens where it’s like you go, it’s like we’re rehearsing and take 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and then you’re thinking about it too much and then you go and you have a dinner and you come back and the next take one after dinner is the one. It’s usually after there’s some sort of a break, but obviously there’s exceptions to that rule. Sometimes it’s take two, or three.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You said that this is something that surprised you about recording with Prince is that he would just, so much of it would be take one. So quick, it would just move so quickly.
Yeah. You said that this is something that surprised you about recording with Prince is that he would just, so much of it would be take one. So quick, it would just move so quickly.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. Well, with that particular album that we made together, it’s called Welcome to America. He called me up and asked me, he said, I want to make a band with you. I’m really inspired by what you’re doing with Jeff Beck. I want to make a trio. Do you like the drum rolls of Jack DeJohnette, was like his first question to me. I’m like, well, yeah, who doesn’t. Who doesn’t like Jack DeJohnette, one of the greatest of all time?
Yeah. Well, with that particular album that we made together, it’s called Welcome to America. He called me up and asked me, he said, I want to make a band with you. I’m really inspired by what you’re doing with Jeff Beck. I want to make a trio. Do you like the drum rolls of Jack DeJohnette, was like his first question to me. I’m like, well, yeah, who doesn’t. Who doesn’t like Jack DeJohnette, one of the greatest of all time?
And he’s like, well, sounds like, because we had a discussion about drumming, sounds like you’re particular about drummers. So why don’t you find us the drummer and I’ll trust you to find the drummer. You can audition some people. Send me some recordings, maybe your two favorites, and I’ll pick out of the two or something. So I did that. Went on a journey, found a couple of guys. He picked the one. We went in and he basically just would be like okay, so the A section’s going to go like this, and then the B section, I think we’re going to go to G, and then the bridge, I might go to B flat, but maybe I’ll hold off and da, da, da. Okay, let’s go 1, 2, 3, 4. And then we recorded it to tape. There was no punch. He did not want me to punch anything.
There was one song called Same Page, Different Book. And he talked through it just like he did. And then he had me soloing between each phrase like little fills. I didn’t know that that was going to come up. And he loved that. He loved to have me on the edge of my seat falling off the cliff. That was my first real falling off a cliff moment from somebody else holding me at the edge of the cliff. You know what I mean? Now I just do it on my own because it’s so fun and it makes sense. It’s the best thing for the music.
Lex Fridman
When you say punch the tape is that when you actually record it.
When you say punch the tape is that when you actually record it.
Tal Wilkenfeld
If you record to tape and there’s say you hit a bum note to punch in means to fix that note, re-record over that one little area and punch that note in. He didn’t want that. He’s like, all my favorite records, just whatever happened happened. That’s that moment in time. Let’s make a new moment in time. It’s great. Nobody makes records like that anymore. Everyone wants to edit and edit and re-record and this and that. And unfortunately with a lot of music, and I’m not saying all music, there’s plenty of great music coming out, but there’s the danger of it being flat because every little imperfection is digitally removed.
If you record to tape and there’s say you hit a bum note to punch in means to fix that note, re-record over that one little area and punch that note in. He didn’t want that. He’s like, all my favorite records, just whatever happened happened. That’s that moment in time. Let’s make a new moment in time. It’s great. Nobody makes records like that anymore. Everyone wants to edit and edit and re-record and this and that. And unfortunately with a lot of music, and I’m not saying all music, there’s plenty of great music coming out, but there’s the danger of it being flat because every little imperfection is digitally removed.
Lex Fridman
Well, that’s one of the promising things about AI is because it can be so perfect that the thing we’ll actually come back to and value about music is the imperfections that humans can create.
Well, that’s one of the promising things about AI is because it can be so perfect that the thing we’ll actually come back to and value about music is the imperfections that humans can create.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
There’ll be a greater valuation of imperfections.
There’ll be a greater valuation of imperfections.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. I mean you can program imperfections too.
Yeah. I mean you can program imperfections too.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, sure. That’s also very sad. But then you get closer and closer to what it means to be human, and maybe there’ll be AIs among us. And they’ll be human, flawed, like the rest of us. Mortal and silly at times.
Yeah, sure. That’s also very sad. But then you get closer and closer to what it means to be human, and maybe there’ll be AIs among us. And they’ll be human, flawed, like the rest of us. Mortal and silly at times.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Another big sigh.
Another big sigh.
Lex Fridman
Is it fair to say that you’re very melodic on bass? You make the bass sing more than people normally do?
Is it fair to say that you’re very melodic on bass? You make the bass sing more than people normally do?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Is that a compliment?
Is that a compliment?
Lex Fridman
Yes, I think so.
Yes, I think so.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Thank you.
Thank you.
Lex Fridman
Moving on to the next question. By way of understanding-
Moving on to the next question. By way of understanding-
Lex Fridman
The next question is, by way of understanding, it’s just there’s something about the way you play bass that just pulls you in the way when you listen to somebody play a guitar, like a guitar solo.
The next question is, by way of understanding, it’s just there’s something about the way you play bass that just pulls you in the way when you listen to somebody play a guitar, like a guitar solo.
Tal Wilkenfeld
The thing I love about Jeff Beck is that he played the guitar like a singer, and I think the way that Wayne Shorter played his saxophone. It’s like a singer. And I think everyone, every musician, aspires to just sound like a singer.
The thing I love about Jeff Beck is that he played the guitar like a singer, and I think the way that Wayne Shorter played his saxophone. It’s like a singer. And I think everyone, every musician, aspires to just sound like a singer.
Jimi Hendrix
Lex Fridman
You make it sing. Let me ask you about… Just come back to Hendrix, because you said that you had three CDs, Jimi Hendrix, Herbie Hancock and Rage Against the Machine. First of all, a great combination. I’m a big Rage fan.
You make it sing. Let me ask you about… Just come back to Hendrix, because you said that you had three CDs, Jimi Hendrix, Herbie Hancock and Rage Against the Machine. First of all, a great combination. I’m a big Rage fan.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s so funny, because when I listen to some of the music that I create, my solo music, I’m like, “I could see how this is a combination of Herbie Hancock, Rage Against the Machine and Jimi Hendrix.” I hear the influences. It’s funny.
It’s so funny, because when I listen to some of the music that I create, my solo music, I’m like, “I could see how this is a combination of Herbie Hancock, Rage Against the Machine and Jimi Hendrix.” I hear the influences. It’s funny.
Lex Fridman
Just from your musician perspective, what’s interesting to you about… What really stands out to you about Hendrix? I just would love to hear a real, professional musician’s opinion of Hendrix.
Just from your musician perspective, what’s interesting to you about… What really stands out to you about Hendrix? I just would love to hear a real, professional musician’s opinion of Hendrix.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I love that he is two voices combined into one voice. So it’s like there is his voice on the guitar, there is his singing voice, and there is the combination of the two that make one voice. And of course the third element is songwriting. And all of this have this beautiful chemistry, and all work geniusly, perfectly together, and there’s nothing like it. And he always beat himself up about being a singer, and he didn’t like his voice, but my favorite singers are the singers that don’t sound like singers.
I love that he is two voices combined into one voice. So it’s like there is his voice on the guitar, there is his singing voice, and there is the combination of the two that make one voice. And of course the third element is songwriting. And all of this have this beautiful chemistry, and all work geniusly, perfectly together, and there’s nothing like it. And he always beat himself up about being a singer, and he didn’t like his voice, but my favorite singers are the singers that don’t sound like singers.
Lex Fridman
Bob Dylan.
Bob Dylan.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Bob Dylan.
Bob Dylan.
Lex Fridman
You said you like Bob Dylan.
You said you like Bob Dylan.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Love Bob Dylan.
Love Bob Dylan.
Lex Fridman
You love his voice too?
You love his voice too?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I love his voice.
I love his voice.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain your love affair with Bob Dylan’s voice?
Can you explain your love affair with Bob Dylan’s voice?
Tal Wilkenfeld
He’s expressing his lyrics. It’s just pure expression, exactly what he means. I feel everything that he’s saying with 100% authenticity. That’s what I want to hear from a singer. I don’t care how many runs you can do and blah blah blah. I want to believe what you’re saying.
He’s expressing his lyrics. It’s just pure expression, exactly what he means. I feel everything that he’s saying with 100% authenticity. That’s what I want to hear from a singer. I don’t care how many runs you can do and blah blah blah. I want to believe what you’re saying.
Lex Fridman
Leonard Cohen is that.
Leonard Cohen is that.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Mm-hmm. There’s countless, like Neil Young. I mean, there’s so many musicians. I love Elliott Smith for that reason.
Mm-hmm. There’s countless, like Neil Young. I mean, there’s so many musicians. I love Elliott Smith for that reason.
Mentorship
Lex Fridman
Let me ask you about mentorship. You said teachers and mentors. You had mentors. What’s a good mentor for you, harsh or supportive?
Let me ask you about mentorship. You said teachers and mentors. You had mentors. What’s a good mentor for you, harsh or supportive?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Supportive.
Supportive.
Lex Fridman
Supportive. You seen Whiplash, the movie? So that guy, somebody screaming at you, kicking you off the cliff?
Supportive. You seen Whiplash, the movie? So that guy, somebody screaming at you, kicking you off the cliff?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Not necessary. I feel like anybody that’s truly passionate about something that they want to be great at or a master of or this and that, they’ve already got that person inside their own head. You don’t need somebody else to do that for you. I think you need love, acceptance, guidance, support, time, advice if you ask for it, just a space, just a nice, open space.
Not necessary. I feel like anybody that’s truly passionate about something that they want to be great at or a master of or this and that, they’ve already got that person inside their own head. You don’t need somebody else to do that for you. I think you need love, acceptance, guidance, support, time, advice if you ask for it, just a space, just a nice, open space.
All my mentors were just that for me. They didn’t tell me to do anything. They don’t care, because they’re not… Why do they need to be invested in where I’m going? Only I know where I’m going. So for some mentor to come and be like, “This is what you need to be doing, and practice…” It’s like, but why? What if that’s not my path? That might be your path. So I’m not really… Again, otherwise it feels like a sport, like who can run the fastest race. And it’s like, well, okay, I get that for sport maybe it makes sense to have someone a bit more hardcore. But still, I would say athletes have the same mentality. They’ve got that in them already too. So I think more of a strategic approach to mentorship works really well, and mainly just having an open space and just being available to someone.
Lex Fridman
And show that they see the special in you, and they give you the room to develop that special whatever.
And show that they see the special in you, and they give you the room to develop that special whatever.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Exactly, because if you do have that harsh critic inside you, it is nice to have somebody that isn’t your family, or someone that’s not obligated any way, that just sees your talent and they’re like, “Yeah, I dig what you’re doing. Keep doing it.”
Exactly, because if you do have that harsh critic inside you, it is nice to have somebody that isn’t your family, or someone that’s not obligated any way, that just sees your talent and they’re like, “Yeah, I dig what you’re doing. Keep doing it.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. It’s funny that that’s not always easy to come by.
Yeah. It’s funny that that’s not always easy to come by.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Do you have any mentors?
Do you have any mentors?
Lex Fridman
I’ve had a few recently, but for most of my life people didn’t really… I’m very much like that too. Somebody to pat me on the back and see something in you of value. Yeah, I didn’t really have that.
I’ve had a few recently, but for most of my life people didn’t really… I’m very much like that too. Somebody to pat me on the back and see something in you of value. Yeah, I didn’t really have that.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Do you wish you did?
Do you wish you did?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah. But maybe the wishing that I did is the thing that made me who I am, not having it, the longing for that. Maybe that’s the thing that helped me develop a constant sense of longing, which I think is a way of… Because I have that engine in me, it really allows me to deeply appreciate every single moment, everything that’s given to me, so just eternal gratitude. You never know which are the bad parts and the good parts. If you remove one thing, the whole thing might collapse. I suppose I’m grateful for the whole thing. That one note you screwed up so many years ago, that might’ve been essential.
Yeah, yeah. But maybe the wishing that I did is the thing that made me who I am, not having it, the longing for that. Maybe that’s the thing that helped me develop a constant sense of longing, which I think is a way of… Because I have that engine in me, it really allows me to deeply appreciate every single moment, everything that’s given to me, so just eternal gratitude. You never know which are the bad parts and the good parts. If you remove one thing, the whole thing might collapse. I suppose I’m grateful for the whole thing. That one note you screwed up so many years ago, that might’ve been essential.
Tal Wilkenfeld
You do jujitsu.
You do jujitsu.
Lex Fridman
Yes. Do you? Are you-
Yes. Do you? Are you-
Tal Wilkenfeld
My dad does. My dad’s super into it. I love my dad. He’s the coolest. But no, I don’t do it. He’s a blue belt right now.
My dad does. My dad’s super into it. I love my dad. He’s the coolest. But no, I don’t do it. He’s a blue belt right now.
Lex Fridman
Nice, nice. You ever been on the mat with him?
Nice, nice. You ever been on the mat with him?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Not yet, but I plan on it.
Not yet, but I plan on it.
Lex Fridman
Should do it.
Should do it.
Tal Wilkenfeld
What belt are you?
What belt are you?
Lex Fridman
Black belt.
Black belt.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Sick. Do you want to go?
Sick. Do you want to go?
Lex Fridman
Right. You got the shit-talking part of jujitsu down. [inaudible 01:30:41] do the technique.
Right. You got the shit-talking part of jujitsu down. [inaudible 01:30:41] do the technique.
Tal Wilkenfeld
But for that, for instance, do you need a harsh mentor or teacher or-
But for that, for instance, do you need a harsh mentor or teacher or-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but you said it really beautifully. To me, I agree, there’s a difference between sport and art. They overlap for sure, but there’s something about sport where perfection is actually… Perfection is really the thing you really want to get to, the technical perfection. With art, it feels like technical perfection is almost a way to get lost on the path to wherever, something unique. But yeah, with sport, I definitely am one of the kind of athletes that loves to have a dictatorial coach, somebody that helps me really push myself to the limit.
Yeah, but you said it really beautifully. To me, I agree, there’s a difference between sport and art. They overlap for sure, but there’s something about sport where perfection is actually… Perfection is really the thing you really want to get to, the technical perfection. With art, it feels like technical perfection is almost a way to get lost on the path to wherever, something unique. But yeah, with sport, I definitely am one of the kind of athletes that loves to have a dictatorial coach, somebody that helps me really push myself to the limit.
Tal Wilkenfeld
But you are the one that’s dictating how hard you’re getting pushed, in a way. You’re choosing your mentor. That Whiplash video is like… He didn’t ask for that.
But you are the one that’s dictating how hard you’re getting pushed, in a way. You’re choosing your mentor. That Whiplash video is like… He didn’t ask for that.
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 01:31:48] he might’ve.
[inaudible 01:31:48] he might’ve.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, maybe. Maybe subconsciously. It’s a movie.
Well, maybe. Maybe subconsciously. It’s a movie.
Lex Fridman
Next you’re going to tell me they’re just actors. But yeah, how do we choose things? You don’t always choose, but you maybe subconsciously choose. And some of some of the great Olympic athletes I’ve interacted with, their parents for many years would force them to go to practice until they discovered the beauty of the thing that they were doing, and then they loved it. So at which point does something that looks like abuse become a gift? It’s weird. It’s all very weird. But for you, support and space to discover the thing, the voice, the music within you.
Next you’re going to tell me they’re just actors. But yeah, how do we choose things? You don’t always choose, but you maybe subconsciously choose. And some of some of the great Olympic athletes I’ve interacted with, their parents for many years would force them to go to practice until they discovered the beauty of the thing that they were doing, and then they loved it. So at which point does something that looks like abuse become a gift? It’s weird. It’s all very weird. But for you, support and space to discover the thing, the voice, the music within you.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, it’s my personal choice, because I’m very familiar with the inner critic, and I can bring her out at any point. I don’t need help with that.
Yeah, it’s my personal choice, because I’m very familiar with the inner critic, and I can bring her out at any point. I don’t need help with that.
Lex Fridman
So you do have… She’s on call.
So you do have… She’s on call.
Tal Wilkenfeld
She was on overdrive. That’s why now I had to work on that so much.
She was on overdrive. That’s why now I had to work on that so much.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, you have a really happy way about you right now.
Yeah, you have a really happy way about you right now.
Sad songs
Tal Wilkenfeld
Thanks.
Thanks.
Lex Fridman
You’re very Zen. Can I ask you about Bruce Springsteen?
You’re very Zen. Can I ask you about Bruce Springsteen?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, sure.
Yeah, sure.
Lex Fridman
A lot of songs of his I listen to make me feel this melancholy feeling. Not just Bruce Springsteen, but Bruce does a lot. What is that about songs that arouse a sad feeling or a longing feeling or a feeling? What is that? What is that about us humans on the receiving end of the music?
A lot of songs of his I listen to make me feel this melancholy feeling. Not just Bruce Springsteen, but Bruce does a lot. What is that about songs that arouse a sad feeling or a longing feeling or a feeling? What is that? What is that about us humans on the receiving end of the music?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Frequencies. Each frequency does elicit a different kind of emotional response. That is real, scientific-
Frequencies. Each frequency does elicit a different kind of emotional response. That is real, scientific-
Lex Fridman
You mean on the physics aspect of it?
You mean on the physics aspect of it?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, yeah, the physical level. So there is that, combined with the right kind of lyric and the right kind of melody of the right kind of chord will elicit a very particular kind of emotion. And it is scientific. It can be analyzed. I don’t particularly want to analyze it, because I don’t want to approach things with that in advance. I don’t want it to inform where I’m going. I like the feeling to lead me naturally to where I’m writing. But yeah, there’s a real chemical element to that.
Yeah, yeah, the physical level. So there is that, combined with the right kind of lyric and the right kind of melody of the right kind of chord will elicit a very particular kind of emotion. And it is scientific. It can be analyzed. I don’t particularly want to analyze it, because I don’t want to approach things with that in advance. I don’t want it to inform where I’m going. I like the feeling to lead me naturally to where I’m writing. But yeah, there’s a real chemical element to that.
And then also, like I was saying, the lyric, what it means to you, which… Poetry is supposed to mean something to everybody different. It’s not supposed to mean one thing. You can’t analyze and be like, “This is what this poet meant.” And like we were talking about with Leonard earlier, it’s like the broader you can leave a lyric, the better. You can appeal to people in so many different ways. And even to the songwriter. I’ll sing some of my songs from five years ago and I’ll be like, “I didn’t even think that it could have meant that, but I guess it does. That’s funny.” I’ll just giggle onstage suddenly, because a lyric will hit me differently, from a different, new experience or something.
Lex Fridman
Have you ever cried listening to a song?
Have you ever cried listening to a song?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Of course. Weep like a baby in a bathtub.
Of course. Weep like a baby in a bathtub.
Lex Fridman
Which? Who’s the regular go-to, then?
Which? Who’s the regular go-to, then?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Leonard.
Leonard.
Lex Fridman
Leonard?
Leonard?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Leonard.
Leonard.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Hallelujah is a song that consistently makes me feel something.
Yeah. Hallelujah is a song that consistently makes me feel something.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s holy. His work is holy. And if you were in his presence… I guess there was a lot to that being.
It’s holy. His work is holy. And if you were in his presence… I guess there was a lot to that being.
Lex Fridman
What advice would you give to young folks on how to have a life they can be proud of?
What advice would you give to young folks on how to have a life they can be proud of?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Just tackle the demons as early as possible, whether it’s through your art or through meditation or through whatever it means, diaries, whatever it is. Just walk towards the things that are scary, because if you don’t, they’ll just expand. They become bigger if you avoid… If you avoid the demons, they become bigger.
Just tackle the demons as early as possible, whether it’s through your art or through meditation or through whatever it means, diaries, whatever it is. Just walk towards the things that are scary, because if you don’t, they’ll just expand. They become bigger if you avoid… If you avoid the demons, they become bigger.
Lex Fridman
What does that mean for you today? Are you still missing Jeff?
What does that mean for you today? Are you still missing Jeff?
Tal Wilkenfeld
I’ll always miss Jeff, but I don’t feel like a piece of me is missing. And same with Leonard. It’s that I did give them a piece of myself, and maybe they gave me a piece of them that I hold with me and I cherish, but it doesn’t feel like I’m less than, or they’re less than, or anything’s less than. You learn to appreciate the impermanence of everything in life, impermanence of everything except for… Consciousness, I guess you could say, is the only thing that is permanent. So everything else, you learn to appreciate that impermanence, because the limited amount of time in this particular body, it’s enticing, gives you a time limit, which is cool. I like that.
I’ll always miss Jeff, but I don’t feel like a piece of me is missing. And same with Leonard. It’s that I did give them a piece of myself, and maybe they gave me a piece of them that I hold with me and I cherish, but it doesn’t feel like I’m less than, or they’re less than, or anything’s less than. You learn to appreciate the impermanence of everything in life, impermanence of everything except for… Consciousness, I guess you could say, is the only thing that is permanent. So everything else, you learn to appreciate that impermanence, because the limited amount of time in this particular body, it’s enticing, gives you a time limit, which is cool. I like that.
Lex Fridman
So you’ve come to accept your own?
So you’ve come to accept your own?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. It’s cool that I’m like, “Okay, I’ve got this amount…” Maybe this amount of time. Who knows?
Yeah. It’s cool that I’m like, “Okay, I’ve got this amount…” Maybe this amount of time. Who knows?
Lex Fridman
It could end today.
It could end today.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, if I died today, I’d be really happy with my life. It’s not like I’m like, “Oh, I missed out on this and that.”
Yeah, if I died today, I’d be really happy with my life. It’s not like I’m like, “Oh, I missed out on this and that.”
Lex Fridman
So you really want to make sure that every day could be your last day and you’re happy with that.
So you really want to make sure that every day could be your last day and you’re happy with that.
Tal Wilkenfeld
I’ve always lived that way. Yeah. I felt this way since I was in my early 20s. I’d be like, “Yeah, I could die today. Sure.” I don’t want to die. I have no reason to die. But if I did, I know that I put my everything, all my effort and all my passion and all my love, into whatever I’ve already done. So if my time’s up, then my time’s up.
I’ve always lived that way. Yeah. I felt this way since I was in my early 20s. I’d be like, “Yeah, I could die today. Sure.” I don’t want to die. I have no reason to die. But if I did, I know that I put my everything, all my effort and all my passion and all my love, into whatever I’ve already done. So if my time’s up, then my time’s up.
Lex Fridman
What role does love play in this whole thing, in the human condition?
What role does love play in this whole thing, in the human condition?
Tal Wilkenfeld
Well, love is everything. I mean, if you define love… If you’re talking about love as in romantic love or paternal or maternal love, or if you’re talking about love as in an Eastern tradition, like Vedanta for instance, love is consciousness, love is everything.
Well, love is everything. I mean, if you define love… If you’re talking about love as in romantic love or paternal or maternal love, or if you’re talking about love as in an Eastern tradition, like Vedanta for instance, love is consciousness, love is everything.
Lex Fridman
That’s the only permanent thing.
That’s the only permanent thing.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah. Or if you were to come from a Zen or like a Buddhist perspective, they would say nothingness. Emptiness is, versus fullness.
Yeah. Or if you were to come from a Zen or like a Buddhist perspective, they would say nothingness. Emptiness is, versus fullness.
Lex Fridman
Well those guys are really obsessed with the whole suffering thing and letting go of it.
Well those guys are really obsessed with the whole suffering thing and letting go of it.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah.
Yeah.
Tal performs Under The Sun (live)
Lex Fridman
Well, I was wondering if you would do me the honor of playing a song.
Well, I was wondering if you would do me the honor of playing a song.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Do you want a suffering song or a suffering song?
Do you want a suffering song or a suffering song?
Lex Fridman
I think I would love a suffering song.
I think I would love a suffering song.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Cool. Do you want a sound check and make sure I’m not-
Cool. Do you want a sound check and make sure I’m not-
Lex Fridman
Sound check. One, two. Yeah, it sounds really good.
Sound check. One, two. Yeah, it sounds really good.
Tal Wilkenfeld
This one too? All right, count me off.
This one too? All right, count me off.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I don’t know how to count somebody off. Where do I start? At nine? Or three? Two, one.
Yeah. I don’t know how to count somebody off. Where do I start? At nine? Or three? Two, one.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Yeah, you got it. One, two.
Yeah, you got it. One, two.
Lex Fridman
One, two.
One, two.
Tal Wilkenfeld
(singing)
(singing)
Lex Fridman
You’re amazing. That was amazing, Tal. Thank you so much.
You’re amazing. That was amazing, Tal. Thank you so much.
Tal performs Killing Me (live)
Tal Wilkenfeld
[inaudible 01:44:18]
[inaudible 01:44:18]
Lex Fridman
Try turning it to 11.
Try turning it to 11.
Tal Wilkenfeld
It’s quite loud. Can you see it from the headphones? [inaudible 01:44:27]
It’s quite loud. Can you see it from the headphones? [inaudible 01:44:27]
Lex Fridman
Can you play something?
Can you play something?
Tal Wilkenfeld
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
No.
No.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Such a professional.
Such a professional.
Lex Fridman
I should produce your next record.
I should produce your next record.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Please.
Please.
(singing)
Lex Fridman
Well, there’s nowhere else I’d rather be right now. Tal, thank you for this. Thank you for the private concert. You’re amazing. You really are amazing. And it was a pleasure to meet you and really a pleasure to talk to you today.
Well, there’s nowhere else I’d rather be right now. Tal, thank you for this. Thank you for the private concert. You’re amazing. You really are amazing. And it was a pleasure to meet you and really a pleasure to talk to you today.
Tal Wilkenfeld
Do I get a private concert now of you playing chess with yourself?
Do I get a private concert now of you playing chess with yourself?
Lex Fridman
We’re out of time, so we got to go.
We’re out of time, so we got to go.
Tal Wilkenfeld
[inaudible 01:49:35]
[inaudible 01:49:35]
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Tall Wilkenfeld. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Maya Angelou. “Music was my refuge. I could crawl into the spaces between the notes and curl my back to loneliness.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Tall Wilkenfeld. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Maya Angelou. “Music was my refuge. I could crawl into the spaces between the notes and curl my back to loneliness.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Guillaume Verdon: Beff Jezos, E/acc Movement, Physics, Computation & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #407
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #407 with Guillaume Verdon.
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Identity number two, Beff Jezos on X is the creator of the effective accelerationism movement, often abbreviated as e/acc, that advocates for propelling rapid technological progress as the ethically optimal course of action for humanity. For example, its proponents believe that progress in AI is a great social equalizer, which should be pushed forward. e/acc followers see themselves as a counterweight to the cautious view that AI is highly unpredictable, potentially dangerous, and needs to be regulated. They often give their opponents the labels of quote, “doomers or decels” short for deceleration, as Beff himself put it, “e/acc is a mimetic optimism virus.”
The style of communication of this movement leans always toward the memes and the lols, but there is an intellectual foundation that we explore in this conversation. Now, speaking of the meme, I am to a kind of aspiring connoisseur of the absurd. It is not an accident that I spoke to Jeff Bezos and Beff Jezos back to back. As we talk about Beff admires Jeff as one of the most important humans alive, and I admire the beautiful absurdity and the humor of it all. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Guillaume Verdon.
Let’s get the facts of identity down first. Your name is Guillaume Verdon, Gill, but you’re also behind the anonymous account on X called @BasedBeffJezos. So first, Guillaume Verdon, you’re a quantum computing guy, physicist, applied mathematician, and then @BasedBeffJezos is basically a meme account that started a movement with a philosophy behind it. So maybe just can you linger on who these people are in terms of characters, in terms of communication styles, in terms of philosophies?
So if you have AI representations that think like nature, then they’ll be able to more accurately represent it. At least that was the thesis that brought me to be an early player in the field called quantum machine learning. So how to do machine learning on quantum computers and really sort of extend notions of intelligence to the quantum realm. So how do you capture and understand quantum mechanical data from our world? And how do you learn quantum mechanical representations of our world? On what kind of computer do you run these representations and train them? How do you do so? And so that’s really the questions I was looking to answer because ultimately I had a sort of crisis of faith. Originally, I wanted to figure out as every physicist does at the beginning of their career, a few equations that describe the whole universe and sort of be the hero of the story there.
But eventually I realized that actually augmenting ourselves with machines, augmenting our ability to perceive, predict, and control our world with machines is the path forward. And that’s what got me to leave theoretical physics and go into quantum computing and quantum machine learning. And during those years I thought that there was still a piece missing. There was a piece of our understanding of the world and our way to compute and our way to think about the world. And if you look at the physical scales, at the very small scales, things are quantum mechanical, and at the very large scales, things are deterministic. Things have averaged out. I’m definitely here in this seat. I’m not in a super position over here and there. At the very small scales, things aren’t super position. They can exhibit interference effects. But at the meso scales, the scales that matter for day-to-day life and the scales of proteins, of biology, of gases, liquids and so on, things are actually thermodynamical, they’re fluctuating.
And after I guess about eight years and quantum computing and quantum machine learning, I had a realization that I was looking for answers about our universe by studying the very big and the very small. I did a bit of quantum cosmology. So that’s studying the cosmos, where it’s going, where it came from. You study black hole physics, you study the extremes in quantum gravity, you study where the energy density is sufficient for both quantum mechanics and gravity to be relevant. And the sort of extreme scenarios are black holes and the very early universe. So there’s the sort of scenarios that you study the interface between quantum mechanics and relativity.
And really I was studying these extremes to understand how the universe works and where is it going. But I was missing a lot of the meat in the middle, if you will, because day-to-day quantum mechanics is relevant and the cosmos is relevant, but not that relevant actually. We’re on sort of the medium space and timescales. And there the main theory of physics that is most relevant is thermodynamics, out of equilibrium thermodynamics. Because life is a process that is thermodynamical and it’s out of equilibrium. We’re not just a soup of particles at equilibrium with nature, were a sort of coherent state trying to maintain itself by acquiring free energy and consuming it. And that sort of, I guess another shift in, I guess my faith in the universe happened towards the end of my time at Alphabet. And I knew I wanted to build, well, first of all a computing paradigm based on this type of physics.
But ultimately just by trying to experiment with these ideas applied to society and economies and much of what we see around us, I started an anonymous account just to relieve the pressure that comes from having an account that you’re accountable for everything you say on. And I started an anonymous account just to experiment with ideas originally because I didn’t realize how much I was restricting my space of thoughts until I sort of had the opportunity to let go. In a sense, restricting your speech back propagates to restricting your thoughts. And by creating an anonymous account, it seemed like I had unclamped some variables in my brain and suddenly could explore a much wider parameter space of thoughts.
And to me, both from a point of view of designing or engineering devices that harness that physics and trying to understand the world through the lens of thermodynamics has been sort of a synergy between my two identities over the past year and a half now. And so that’s really how the two identities emerged. One was kind of, I’m a decently respected scientist, and I was going towards doing a startup in the space and trying to be a pioneer of a new kind of physics-based AI. And as a dual to that, I was sort of experimenting with philosophical thoughts from a physicist standpoint.
And ultimately I think that around that time, it was like late 2021, early 2022, I think there was just a lot of pessimism about the future in general and pessimism about tech. And that pessimism was sort of virally spreading because it was getting algorithmically amplified and people just felt like the future is going to be worse than the present. And to me, that is a very fundamentally destructive force in the universe is this sort of doom mindset because it is hyperstitious, which means that if you believe it, you’re increasing the likelihood of it happening. And so felt a responsibility to some extent to make people aware of the trajectory of civilization and the natural tendency of the system to adapt towards its growth. And that actually the laws of physics say that the future is going to be better and grander statistically, and we can make it so.
And if you believe in it, if you believe that the future would be better and you believe you have agency to make it happen, you’re actually increasing the likelihood of that better future happening. And so I sort of felt a responsibility to sort of engineer a movement of viral optimism about the future, and build a community of people supporting each other to build and do hard things, do the things that need to be done for us to scale up civilization. Because at least to me, I don’t think stagnation or slowing down is actually an option. Fundamentally life and the whole system, our whole civilization wants to grow. And there’s just far more cooperation when the system is growing rather than when it’s declining and you have to decide how to split the pie. And so I’ve balanced both identities so far, but I guess recently the two have been merged more or less without my consent.
Then there’s the word hyperstition. So some ideas as suppose both pessimism and optimism of such ideas that if you internalize them, you in part make that idea reality. So both optimism, pessimism have that property. I would say that probably a lot of ideas have that property, which is one of the interesting things about humans. And you talked about one interesting difference also between the sort of the Guillaume, the Gill front end and the @BasedBeffJezos backend is the communication styles also that you are exploring different ways of communicating that can be more viral in the way that we communicate in the 21st century. Also, the movement that you mentioned that you started, it’s not just a meme account, but there’s also a name to it called effective accelerationism, e/acc, a play, a resistance to the effective altruism movement. Also, an interesting one that I’d love to talk to you about, the tensions there. And so then there was a merger, a get merge on the personalities recently without your consent, like you said. Some journalists figured out that you’re one and the same. Maybe you could talk about that experience. First of all, what’s the story of the merger of the two?
So I think the fact that they had doxxed the whole Guillaume complex, and they were, the journalists reached out to actually my investors, which is pretty scary. When you’re a startup entrepreneur, you don’t really have bosses except for your investors. And my investors pinged me like, “Hey, this is going to come out. They’ve figured out everything. What are you going to do?” So I think at first they had a first reporter on the Thursday and they didn’t have all the pieces together, but then they looked at their notes across the organization and they sensor fused their notes and now they had way too much. And that’s when I got worried, because they said it was of public interest and in general-
And I think we should have the right to point that out and just have the ideas that we put out evaluated for themselves. Ultimately that’s why I created an anonymous account, it’s to have my ideas evaluated for themselves, uncorrelated from my track record, my job, or status from having done things in the past. And to me, start an account from zero to a large following in a way that wasn’t dependent on my identity and/or achievements that was very fulfilling. It’s kind of like new game plus in a video game. You restart the video game with your knowledge of how to beat it, maybe some tools, but you restart the video game from scratch. And I think to have a truly efficient marketplace of ideas where we can evaluate ideas, however off the beaten path they are, we need the freedom of expression.
And I think that anonymity and pseudonyms are very crucial to having that efficient marketplace of ideas for us to find the optima of all sorts of ways to organize ourselves. If we can’t discuss things, how are we going to converge on the best way to do things? So it was disappointing to hear that I was getting doxxed in. I wanted to get in front of it because I had a responsibility for my company. And so we ended up disclosing that we’re running a company, some of the leadership, and essentially, yeah, I told the world that I was Beff Jezos because they had me cornered at that point.
We almost lost OpenAI to this ideology. It almost got dismantled a couple of weeks ago. That would’ve caused huge damage to the AI ecosystem. And so to me, I want fault tolerant progress. I want the arrow of technological progress to keep moving forward and making sure we have variance and a decentralized locus of control of various organizations is paramount to achieving this fall tolerance. Actually, there’s a concept in quantum computing. When you design a quantum computer, quantum computers are very fragile to ambient noise, and the world is jiggling about, there’s cosmic radiation from outer space that usually flips your quantum bits. And there what you do is you encode information non-locally through a process called quantum error correction. And by encoding information non-locally, any local fault hitting some of your quantum bits with a hammer proverbial hammer, if your information is sufficiently de-localized, it is protected from that local fault. And to me, I think that humans fluctuate. They can get corrupted, they can get bought out. And if you have a top-down hierarchy where very few people-
And even if you like our current leaders, right, I think that some of the leaders in big tech today are good people, you set up that centralized power structure, it becomes a target. Right, just like we saw at OpenAI, it becomes a market leader, has a lot of the power and now it becomes a target for those that want to co-opt it. And so I just want separation of AI and state, some might argue in the opposite direction like, “Hey, we need to close down AI, keep it behind closed doors, because of geopolitical competition with our adversaries.” I think that the strength of America is its variance, is its adaptability, its dynamism, and we need to maintain that at all costs. It’s our free market capitalism, converges on technologies of high utility much faster than centralized control. And if we let go of that, we let go of our main advantage over our near peer competitors.
I think the priority to me is to maintain a near equilibrium of capabilities. We’ve been fighting for open source AI to be more prevalent and championed by many organizations because there you sort of equilibrate the alpha relative to the market of Ais, right. So if the leading companies have a certain level of capabilities and open source and truly open AI, trails not too far behind, I think you avoid such a scenario where a market leader has so much market power, just dominates everything and runs away. And so to us that’s the path forward, is to make sure that every hacker out there, every grad student, every kid in their mom’s basement has access to AI systems, can understand how to work with them and can contribute to the search over the hyperparameter space of how to engineer the systems, right. If you think of our collective research as a civilization, it’s really a search algorithm and the more points we have in the search algorithm in this point cloud, the more we’ll be able to explore new modes of thinking, right.
And so, already I’ve spent my career sort of exploring the wider space of intelligences and I think that space of intelligence inspired by physics rather than the human brain is very large. And I think we’re going through a moment right now similar to when we went from Geocentrism to Heliocentrism, right. But for intelligence, we realized that human intelligence is just a point in a very large space of potential intelligences. And it’s both humbling for humanity, it’s a bit scary, right? That we’re not at the center of this space, but we made that realization for astronomy and we’ve survived and we’ve achieved technologies. By indexing to reality, we’ve achieved technologies that ensure our wellbeing, for example, we have satellites monitoring solar flares, right, that give us a warning. And so similarly I think by letting go of this anthropomorphic, anthropocentric anchor for AI, we’ll be able to explore the wider space of intelligences that can really be a massive benefit to our wellbeing and the advancement of civilization.
And I think part of EAC is to appreciate this principle in a way that’s not just centered on humanity, but kind of broader, appreciate life, the preciousness of consciousness in our universe. And because we cherish this beautiful state of matter we’re in, we got to feel a responsibility to scale it in order to preserve it, because the options are to grow or die.
To me, I think that the most likely future is one where humans augment themselves with AI. I think we’re already on this path to augmentation, we have phones we use for communication, we have on ourselves at all times. We have wearables, soon that have shared perception with us, right, like the Humane AI Pin or I mean, technically your Tesla car has shared perception. And so if you have shared experience, shared context, you communicate with one another and you have some sort of IO, really it’s an extension of yourself.And to me, I think that humanity augmenting itself with AI and having AI that is not anchored to anything biological, both will coexist. And the way to align the parties, we already have a sort of mechanism to align super intelligences that are made of humans and technology, right? Companies are sort of large mixture of expert models, where we have neural routing of tasks within a company and we have ways of economic exchange to align these behemoths.
And to me, I think capitalism is the way, and I do think that whatever configuration of matter or information leads to maximal growth, will be where we converge, just from like physical principles. And so we can either align ourselves to that reality and join the acceleration up in scope and scale of civilization or we can get left behind and try to decelerate and move back in the forest, let go of technology and return to our primitive state. And those are the two paths forward, at least to me.
And in general, I don’t think that we can predict the future with that much granularity because of chaos, right? If you have a complex system, you have some uncertainty and a couple of variables, if you let time evolve, you have this concept of a Lyapunov exponent, right. A bit of fuzz becomes a lot of fuzz in our estimate, exponentially so, over time. And I think we need to show some humility that we can’t actually predict the future, the only prior we have is the laws of physics, and that’s what we’re arguing for. The laws of physics say the system will want to grow and subsystems that are optimized for growth and replication are more likely in the future. And so we should aim to maximize our current mutual information with the future and the path towards that is for us to accelerate rather than decelerate.
So I don’t have a p(doom), because I think that similar to the quantum supremacy experiment at Google, I was in the room when they were running the simulations for that. That was an example of a quantum chaotic system where you cannot even estimate probabilities of certain outcomes with even the biggest supercomputer in the world, right. So that’s an example of chaos and I think the system is far too chaotic for anybody to have an accurate estimate of the likelihood of certain futures. If they were that good, I think they would be very rich trading on the stock market.
And to me, that has a much higher likelihood in my Bayesian inference than Sci-Fi based priors, right, like, “My prior came from the Terminator movie.” And so when I talked to these AI doomers, I just ask them to trace a path through this Markov chain of events that would lead to our doom and to actually give me a good probability for each transition. And very often there’s a unphysical or highly unlikely transition in that chain, right. But of course, we’re wired to fear things and we’re wired to respond to danger, and we’re wired to deem the unknown to be dangerous, because that’s a good heuristic for survival, right. But there’s much more to lose out of fear. We have so much to lose, so much upside to lose by preemptively stopping the positive futures from happening out of fear. And so I think that we shouldn’t give into fear, fear is the mind killer, I think it’s also the civilization killer.
And you can even see that as a compelling argument on the surface level. “Well, AGI is so much smarter, so much more efficient, so much better at allocating resources, why don’t we outsource it to the AGI?” And then eventually whatever forces that corrupt the human mind with power could do the same for AGI. It’ll just say, “Well, humans are dispensable, we’ll get rid of them.” Do the Jonathan Swift, Modest Proposal from a few centuries ago, I think the 1700s, when he satirically suggested that, I think it’s in Ireland, that the children of poor people are fed as food to the rich people and that would be a good idea, because it decreases the amount of poor people and gives extra income to the poor people. So on several accounts decreases the amount of poor people, therefore more people become rich. Of course, it misses a fundamental piece here that’s hard to put into a mathematical equation of the basic value of human life. So all of that to say, are you concerned about AGI being the very centralizer of power that you just talked about?
What has emerged in nature and in corporations and all sorts of systems is a notion of sort of hierarchical cybernetic control, right. In a company it would be, you have like the individual contributors, they are self-interested and they’re trying to achieve their tasks and they have a fine, in terms of time and space if you will, control loop and field of perception, right. They have their code base, let’s say you’re in a software company, they have their code base, they iterate it on it intraday, right. And then the management maybe checks in, it has a wider scope, it has, let’s say five reports, right. And then it samples each person’s update once per week, and then you can go up the chain and you have larger timescale and greater scope. And that seems to have emerged as sort of the optimal way to control systems.
And really that’s what capitalism gives us, right? You have these hierarchies and you can even have like parent companies and so on. And so that is far more fault tolerant, in quantum computing, that’s my feel that came from, we have a concept of this fault tolerance in quantum air correction, right? Quantum air correction is detecting a fault that came from noise, predicting how it’s propagated through the system and then correcting it, right, so it’s a cybernetic loop. And it turns out that decoders that are hierarchical and in each level, the hierarchy are local-
Maintaining that dynamism is how we avoid tyranny. Making sure that everyone has access to these tools, to these models, and can contribute to the research, avoids a neural tyranny where very few people have control over AI for the world and use it to oppress those around them.
But really, nowadays, it seems like a lot of intelligence we use is more about compression. It’s about operationalizing information theory. In information theory, you have the notion of entropy of a distribution or a system, and entropy tells you that you need this many bits to encode this distribution or this subsystem, if you have the most optimal code. AI, at least the way we do it today for LLMs and for quantum, is very much trying to minimize relative entropy between our models of the world and the world, distributions from the world. We’re learning, we’re searching over the space of computations to process the world, to find that compressed representation that has distilled all the variance in noise and entropy.
Originally, I came to quantum machine learning from the study of black holes because the entropy of black holes is very interesting. In a sense, they’re physically the most dense objects in the universe. You can’t pack more information spatially any more densely than in a black hole. And so, I was wondering, how do black holes actually encode information? What is their compression code? That got me into the space of algorithms, to search over space of quantum codes. It got me actually into also, how do you acquire quantum information from the world? Something I’ve worked on, this is public now, is quantum analog digital conversion.
How do you capture information from the real world in superposition and not destroy the superposition, but digitize for a quantum mechanical computer information from the real world? If you have an ability to capture quantum information and learn representation representations of it, now you can learn compressed representations that may have some useful information in their latent representation. I think that many of the problems facing our civilization are actually beyond this complexity barrier. The greenhouse effect is a quantum mechanical effect. Chemistry is quantum mechanical. Nuclear physics is quantum mechanical.
A lot of biology and protein folding and so on is affected by quantum mechanics. And so, unlocking an ability to augment human intellect with quantum mechanical computers and quantum mechanical AI seemed to me like a fundamental capability for civilization that we needed to develop. I spent several years doing that, but over time, I grew weary of the timelines that were starting to look like nuclear fusion.
I think you could make a quantum computer out of many things. But to me, the thing that was really interesting was both quantum machine learning was about understanding the quantum mechanical world with quantum computers, so embedding the physical world into AI representations, and quantum computer engineering was embedding AI algorithms into the physical world. This bi-directionality of embedding physical world into AI, AI into the physical world, this symbiosis between physics and AI, really that’s the core of my quest really, even to this day, after quantum computing. It’s still in this journey to merge really physics and AI.
Why is that? Because you assume the computer is operating at zero temperature, which no physical system in the universe can achieve that temperature. What you have to do is what I’ve been mentioning, this quantum error correction process, which is really an algorithmic fridge. It’s trying to pump entropy out of the system, trying to get it closer to zero temperature. When you do the calculations of how many resources it would take to, say, do deep learning on a quantum computer, classical deep learning, there’s such a huge overhead, it’s not worth it. It’s like thinking about shipping something across a city using a rocket and going to orbit and back. It doesn’t make sense. Just use a delivery truck.
The trick there was to do a feedforward operation and do what we call a phase kick. But really, it’s just a force kick. You just kick the system with a certain force that is proportional to your loss function that you wish to optimize. And then, by performing uncomputation, you start with a superposition over parameters, which is pretty funky. Now, you don’t have just a point for parameters, you have a superposition over many potential parameters. Our goal is-
If you alternate this with an emulation of kinetic energy, then it’s like a particle moving in end dimensions, a quantum particle. The advantage in principle would be that it can tunnel through the landscape and find new optima that would’ve been difficult for stochastic optimizers. But again, this is a theoretical thing, and in practice with at least the current architectures for quantum computers that we have planned, such algorithms would be extremely expensive to run.
There is a big difference. In mathematics, you can explore mathematics for mathematics’ sake. In physics, you’re applying mathematics to understand the world around us. And in engineering, you’re trying to hack the world. You’re trying to find how to apply the physics that I know, my knowledge of the world, to do things.
It’s just a very long slog of engineering, but ultimately, it’s really crazy to me how much exquisite level of control we have over these systems. It’s actually quite crazy. And people are crossing… They’re achieving milestones. It’s just in general, the media always gets ahead of where the technology is. There’s a bit too much hype. It’s good for fundraising, but sometimes it causes winters. It’s the hype cycle. I’m bullish on quantum computing on a 10, 15-year timescale personally, but I think there’s other quests that can be done in the meantime. I think it’s in good hands right now.
I was trying to hack the energy of the vacuum, and the reality is that you can’t just directly hack it. It’s not technically free energy. Your lack of knowledge of the fluctuations means you can’t extract the energy. But just like the stock market, if you have a stock that’s correlated over time, the vacuum’s actually correlated. If you measured the vacuum at one point, you acquired information. If you communicated that information to another point, you can infer what configuration the vacuum is in to some precision and statistically extract, on average, some energy there. So, you’ve “teleported energy”.
To me, that was interesting because you could create pockets of negative-energy density, which is energy density that is below the vacuum, which is very weird because we don’t understand how the vacuum gravitates. There are theories where the vacuum or the canvas of space-time itself is really a canvas made out of quantum entanglement. I was studying how decreasing energy of vacuum locally increases quantum entanglement, which is very funky.
The thing there is that, if you’re into to weird theories about UAPs and whatnot, you could try to imagine that they’re around. And how would they propel themselves? How would they go faster than the speed of light? You would need a sort of negative energy density. To me, I gave it the old college try, trying to hack the energy of vacuum and hit the limits allowable by the laws of physics. But there’s all sorts of caveats there where you can’t extract more than you’ve put in, obviously.
I think it’s interesting to consider and to me, it’s a useful thought experiment to instill a sense of urgency in developing technologies and increasing our capabilities, to make sure we don’t get disrupted. Whether it’s a form of AI that disrupts us, or a foreign intelligence from a different planet. Either way, increasing our capabilities and becoming formidable as humans, I think that’s really important, so that we’re robust against whatever the universe throws at us.
At least, part of my journey someday on my bucket list is to apply quantum machine learning to these sorts of systems, these CFTs, or they’re called SYK models, and learn an emergent geometry from the boundary theory. And so, we can have a form of machine learning to help us understand quantum gravity, which is still a holy grail that I would like to hit before I leave this earth.
Everything that is falling to a black hole, from our perspective, gets sedimented and tacked on to the near horizon. At some point, it gets so close to the horizon, it’s in the proximity or the scale in which quantum effects and quantum fluctuations matter. There, that infalling matter could interfere with the traditional pictures, that it could interfere with the creation and annihilation of particles and antiparticles in the vacuum. Through this interference, one of the particles gets entangled with the infalling information and one of them is now free and escapes. That’s how there’s mutual information between the outgoing radiation and the infalling matter. But getting that calculation right, I think we’re only just starting to put the pieces together.
Because there’s really been a sort of vacuum of spirituality and culture. People don’t feel like they belong to any one group, and there’s been parasitic ideologies that have taken up opportunity to populate this Petri dish of minds. Elon calls it the mind virus. We call it the decel mind virus complex, which is the decelerative that is kind of the overall pattern between all of them. There’s many variants as well. And so if there’s a sort of viral pessimism, decelerative movement, we needed to have not only one movement, but many, many variants, so it’s very hard to pinpoint and stop.
And I shouldn’t be in control of it in any way. I mean, there’s no formal org whatsoever. I just put out tweets and certain blog posts, and people are free to defect and fork if there’s an aspect they don’t like. And so that makes it so that there should be deterritorialization in the space of ideas, so that we don’t end up in one cluster that’s very cult-like. And so cults usually, they don’t allow people to defect or start competing forks, whereas we encourage it.
So it’s kind of a vector to spread the message. And yes, we’ve been using techniques that are optimal for today’s algorithmically-amplified information landscapes. But I think we’re reaching the point of scale where we can have serious debates and serious conversations. And that’s why we’re considering doing a bunch of debates and having more serious long-form discussions. Because I don’t think that the timeline is optimal for very serious, thoughtful discussions. You get rewarded for polarization. And so even though we started a movement that is literally trying to polarize the tech ecosystem, at the end of the day so that we can have a conversation and find an optimum together.
I think just overall, I’m four billionaires. I know this is a controversial statement sometimes, but I think that in a sense it’s kind of a proof of stake voting. If you’ve allocated capital efficiently, you unlock more capital to allocate, just because clearly you know how to allocate capital more efficiently. Which is in contrast to politicians that get elected because they speak the best on TV, not because they have a proven track record of allocating taxpayer capital most efficiently. And so that’s why I’m for capitalism over, say, giving all our money to the government and letting them figure out how to allocate it.
And so we were wondering, as generative AI is sort of eating the world, more and more of the world’s computational workloads are focused on generative AI, how could we use physics to engineer the ultimate physical substrate for generative AI from first principles of physics, of information theory, of computation, and ultimately of thermodynamics? And so what we’re seeking to build is a physics-based computing system and physics-based AI algorithms that are inspired by out-of-equilibrium thermodynamics, or harness it directly to do machine learning as a physical process.
And ultimately, it was a very cross-disciplinary effort. We had to invent all sorts of ways to differentiate, to back propagate through the hybrid graph. But ultimately, it taught me that the way to program matter and to program physics is by differentiating through control parameters. If you have parameters that affects the physics of the system and you can evaluate some loss function, you can optimize the system to accomplish a task, whatever that task may be. And that’s a very universal meta framework for how to program physics-based computers.
Whereas sort of EAC, measuring progress of civilization, not in terms of a subjective loss function like hedonism, but rather an objective measure, quantity that cannot be gamed that is physical energy, it’s very objective, and there’s not many ways to game it. If you did it in terms of GDP, or a currency, that’s pinned to certain value that’s moving. And so, that’s not a good way to measure our progress. But the thing is we’re both trying to make progress, and ensure humanity flourishes, and gets to grow. We just have different loss functions, and different ways of going about doing it.
So, it’s funny to me how I was trying to engineer a neural adaptation in my nervous system more broadly, not just my brain while learning mathematics. I think you can learn much faster if you really care. If you convince yourself to care a lot about what you’re learning, and you have some sort of assistance, let’s say caffeine, or some cholinergic supplement to increase neuroplasticity. I should chat with Andrew Huberman at some point. He’s the expert. But yeah, at least to me it’s like you can try to input more tokens into your brain, if you will, and you can try to increase the learning rate, so that you can learn much faster on a shorter timescale.
So, I’ve learned a lot of things. I’ve followed my curiosity. You’re naturally… If you’re passionate about what you’re doing, you’re going to learn faster, you’re going to become smarter faster. And if you follow your curiosity, you’re always going to be interested. And so, I advise people to follow their curiosity and don’t respect the boundaries of certain fields, or what you’ve been allocated in terms of lane of what you’re working on. Just go out and explore, and follow your nose, and try to acquire, and compress as much information as you can into your brain. Anything that you find interesting.
You need novelty, you need youth, you need disruption to make sure the system’s always adapting, and malleable. Otherwise, if things are immortal, if you have, let’s say corporations that are there forever, and they have the monopoly, they get calcified, they become not as optimal, not as high fitness in a changing, time varying landscape. And so, death gives space for youth and novelty to take its place. And I think it’s an important part of every system in nature. So yeah, I am for death, but I do think that longer lifespan, and longer time for neuroplasticity, bigger brains should be something we should strive for.
And in general, it’s a capability that has evolved because the better you can predict the world, the better you can capture utility, or free energy towards your own sustenance and growth. And I think quantum gravity, again, is kind of the final boss, in terms of knowledge acquisition, because once we’ve mastered that, then we can do a lot, potentially. But between here and there, I think there’s a lot to learn in the meso scales. There’s a lot of information to acquire about our world, and a lot of engineering perception, prediction, and control to be done, to climb up the Carta shift scale. And to us, that’s the great challenge of our times.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 2:23 – Beff Jezos
- 12:21 – Thermodynamics
- 18:36 – Doxxing
- 28:30 – Anonymous bots
- 35:58 – Power
- 38:29 – AI dangers
- 42:01 – Building AGI
- 50:14 – Merging with AI
- 57:56 – p(doom)
- 1:13:23 – Quantum machine learning
- 1:26:41 – Quantum computer
- 1:35:15 – Aliens
- 1:40:04 – Quantum gravity
- 1:45:25 – Kardashev scale
- 1:47:17 – Effective accelerationism (e/acc)
- 1:57:47 – Humor and memes
- 2:00:53 – Jeff Bezos
- 2:07:25 – Elon Musk
- 2:13:55 – Extropic
- 2:22:31 – Singularity and AGI
- 2:26:29 – AI doomers
- 2:27:54 – Effective altruism
- 2:34:23 – Day in the life
- 2:40:50 – Identity
- 2:43:40 – Advice for young people
- 2:45:42 – Mortality
- 2:49:25 – Meaning of life
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Guillaume Verdon, the man behind the previously anonymous account @BasedBeffJezos on X. These two identities were merged by a doxxing article in Forbes titled, Who Is @BasedBeffJezos, The Leader Of The Tech Elite’s E/Acc Movement? So let me describe these two identities that coexist in the mind of one human. Identity number one, Guillaume, is a physicist, applied mathematician, and quantum machine learning researcher and engineer receiving his PhD in quantum machine learning, working at Google on quantum computing, and finally launching his own company called Extropic that seeks to build physics-based computing hardware for generative AI.
The following is a conversation with Guillaume Verdon, the man behind the previously anonymous account @BasedBeffJezos on X. These two identities were merged by a doxxing article in Forbes titled, Who Is @BasedBeffJezos, The Leader Of The Tech Elite’s E/Acc Movement? So let me describe these two identities that coexist in the mind of one human. Identity number one, Guillaume, is a physicist, applied mathematician, and quantum machine learning researcher and engineer receiving his PhD in quantum machine learning, working at Google on quantum computing, and finally launching his own company called Extropic that seeks to build physics-based computing hardware for generative AI.
Identity number two, Beff Jezos on X is the creator of the effective accelerationism movement, often abbreviated as e/acc, that advocates for propelling rapid technological progress as the ethically optimal course of action for humanity. For example, its proponents believe that progress in AI is a great social equalizer, which should be pushed forward. e/acc followers see themselves as a counterweight to the cautious view that AI is highly unpredictable, potentially dangerous, and needs to be regulated. They often give their opponents the labels of quote, “doomers or decels” short for deceleration, as Beff himself put it, “e/acc is a mimetic optimism virus.”
The style of communication of this movement leans always toward the memes and the lols, but there is an intellectual foundation that we explore in this conversation. Now, speaking of the meme, I am to a kind of aspiring connoisseur of the absurd. It is not an accident that I spoke to Jeff Bezos and Beff Jezos back to back. As we talk about Beff admires Jeff as one of the most important humans alive, and I admire the beautiful absurdity and the humor of it all. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Guillaume Verdon.
Beff Jezos
Let’s get the facts of identity down first. Your name is Guillaume Verdon, Gill, but you’re also behind the anonymous account on X called @BasedBeffJezos. So first, Guillaume Verdon, you’re a quantum computing guy, physicist, applied mathematician, and then @BasedBeffJezos is basically a meme account that started a movement with a philosophy behind it. So maybe just can you linger on who these people are in terms of characters, in terms of communication styles, in terms of philosophies?
Guillaume Verdon
I mean, with my main identity, I guess ever since I was a kid, I wanted to figure out the theory of everything, to understand the universe. And that path led me to theoretical physics, eventually trying to answer the big questions of why are we here? Where are we going? And that led me to study information theory and try to understand physics from the lens of information theory, understand the universe as one big computation. And essentially after reaching a certain level studying black hole physics, I realized that I wanted to not only understand how the universe computes, but sort of compute like nature and figure out how to build and apply computers that are inspired by nature. So physics-based computers. And that sort of brought me to quantum computing as a field of study to first of all, simulate nature. And in my work it was to learn representations of nature that can run on such computers.
I mean, with my main identity, I guess ever since I was a kid, I wanted to figure out the theory of everything, to understand the universe. And that path led me to theoretical physics, eventually trying to answer the big questions of why are we here? Where are we going? And that led me to study information theory and try to understand physics from the lens of information theory, understand the universe as one big computation. And essentially after reaching a certain level studying black hole physics, I realized that I wanted to not only understand how the universe computes, but sort of compute like nature and figure out how to build and apply computers that are inspired by nature. So physics-based computers. And that sort of brought me to quantum computing as a field of study to first of all, simulate nature. And in my work it was to learn representations of nature that can run on such computers.
So if you have AI representations that think like nature, then they’ll be able to more accurately represent it. At least that was the thesis that brought me to be an early player in the field called quantum machine learning. So how to do machine learning on quantum computers and really sort of extend notions of intelligence to the quantum realm. So how do you capture and understand quantum mechanical data from our world? And how do you learn quantum mechanical representations of our world? On what kind of computer do you run these representations and train them? How do you do so? And so that’s really the questions I was looking to answer because ultimately I had a sort of crisis of faith. Originally, I wanted to figure out as every physicist does at the beginning of their career, a few equations that describe the whole universe and sort of be the hero of the story there.
But eventually I realized that actually augmenting ourselves with machines, augmenting our ability to perceive, predict, and control our world with machines is the path forward. And that’s what got me to leave theoretical physics and go into quantum computing and quantum machine learning. And during those years I thought that there was still a piece missing. There was a piece of our understanding of the world and our way to compute and our way to think about the world. And if you look at the physical scales, at the very small scales, things are quantum mechanical, and at the very large scales, things are deterministic. Things have averaged out. I’m definitely here in this seat. I’m not in a super position over here and there. At the very small scales, things aren’t super position. They can exhibit interference effects. But at the meso scales, the scales that matter for day-to-day life and the scales of proteins, of biology, of gases, liquids and so on, things are actually thermodynamical, they’re fluctuating.
And after I guess about eight years and quantum computing and quantum machine learning, I had a realization that I was looking for answers about our universe by studying the very big and the very small. I did a bit of quantum cosmology. So that’s studying the cosmos, where it’s going, where it came from. You study black hole physics, you study the extremes in quantum gravity, you study where the energy density is sufficient for both quantum mechanics and gravity to be relevant. And the sort of extreme scenarios are black holes and the very early universe. So there’s the sort of scenarios that you study the interface between quantum mechanics and relativity.
And really I was studying these extremes to understand how the universe works and where is it going. But I was missing a lot of the meat in the middle, if you will, because day-to-day quantum mechanics is relevant and the cosmos is relevant, but not that relevant actually. We’re on sort of the medium space and timescales. And there the main theory of physics that is most relevant is thermodynamics, out of equilibrium thermodynamics. Because life is a process that is thermodynamical and it’s out of equilibrium. We’re not just a soup of particles at equilibrium with nature, were a sort of coherent state trying to maintain itself by acquiring free energy and consuming it. And that sort of, I guess another shift in, I guess my faith in the universe happened towards the end of my time at Alphabet. And I knew I wanted to build, well, first of all a computing paradigm based on this type of physics.
But ultimately just by trying to experiment with these ideas applied to society and economies and much of what we see around us, I started an anonymous account just to relieve the pressure that comes from having an account that you’re accountable for everything you say on. And I started an anonymous account just to experiment with ideas originally because I didn’t realize how much I was restricting my space of thoughts until I sort of had the opportunity to let go. In a sense, restricting your speech back propagates to restricting your thoughts. And by creating an anonymous account, it seemed like I had unclamped some variables in my brain and suddenly could explore a much wider parameter space of thoughts.
Lex Fridman
Just a little on that, isn’t that interesting that one of the things that people don’t often talk about is that when there’s pressure and constraints on speech, it somehow leads to constraints on thought even though it doesn’t have to. We can think thoughts inside our head, but somehow it creates these walls around thought.
Just a little on that, isn’t that interesting that one of the things that people don’t often talk about is that when there’s pressure and constraints on speech, it somehow leads to constraints on thought even though it doesn’t have to. We can think thoughts inside our head, but somehow it creates these walls around thought.
Guillaume Verdon
Yep. That’s sort of the basis of our movement is we were seeing a tendency towards constraint, reduction or suppression of variants in every aspect of life, whether it’s thought, how to run a company, how to organize humans, how to do AI research. In general, we believe that maintaining variance ensures that the system is adaptive. Maintaining healthy competition in marketplaces of ideas, of companies, of products, of cultures, of governments, of currencies is the way forward because the system always adapts to assign resources to the configurations that lead to its growth. And the fundamental basis for the movement is this sort of realization that life is a sort of fire that seeks out free energy in the universe and seeks to grow. And that growth is fundamental to life. And you see this in the equations actually of equilibrium thermodynamics. You see that paths of trajectories, of configurations of matter that are better at acquiring free energy and dissipating more heat are exponentially more likely. So the universe is biased towards certain futures, and so there’s a natural direction where the whole system wants to go.
Yep. That’s sort of the basis of our movement is we were seeing a tendency towards constraint, reduction or suppression of variants in every aspect of life, whether it’s thought, how to run a company, how to organize humans, how to do AI research. In general, we believe that maintaining variance ensures that the system is adaptive. Maintaining healthy competition in marketplaces of ideas, of companies, of products, of cultures, of governments, of currencies is the way forward because the system always adapts to assign resources to the configurations that lead to its growth. And the fundamental basis for the movement is this sort of realization that life is a sort of fire that seeks out free energy in the universe and seeks to grow. And that growth is fundamental to life. And you see this in the equations actually of equilibrium thermodynamics. You see that paths of trajectories, of configurations of matter that are better at acquiring free energy and dissipating more heat are exponentially more likely. So the universe is biased towards certain futures, and so there’s a natural direction where the whole system wants to go.
Thermodynamics
Lex Fridman
So the second law of thermodynamics says that the entropy is always increasing in the universe that’s tending towards an equilibrium. And you’re saying there’s these pockets that have complexity and are out of equilibrium. You said that thermodynamics favors the creation of complex life that increases its capability to use energy to offload entropy. To offload entropy. So you have pockets of non-entropy that tend the opposite direction. Why is that intuitive to you that it’s natural for such pockets to emerge?
So the second law of thermodynamics says that the entropy is always increasing in the universe that’s tending towards an equilibrium. And you’re saying there’s these pockets that have complexity and are out of equilibrium. You said that thermodynamics favors the creation of complex life that increases its capability to use energy to offload entropy. To offload entropy. So you have pockets of non-entropy that tend the opposite direction. Why is that intuitive to you that it’s natural for such pockets to emerge?
Guillaume Verdon
Well, we’re far more efficient at producing heat than let’s say just a rock with a similar mass as ourselves. We acquire free energy, we acquire food, and we’re using all this electricity for our operation. And so the universe wants to produce more entropy and by having life go on and grow, it’s actually more optimal at producing entropy because it will seek out pockets of free energy and burn it for its sustenance and further growth. And that’s sort of the basis of life. And I mean, there’s Jeremy England at MIT who has this theory that I’m a proponent of, that life emerged because of this sort of property. And to me, this physics is what governs the meso scales. And so it’s the missing piece between the quantum and the cosmos. It’s the middle part. Thermodynamics rules the meso scales.
Well, we’re far more efficient at producing heat than let’s say just a rock with a similar mass as ourselves. We acquire free energy, we acquire food, and we’re using all this electricity for our operation. And so the universe wants to produce more entropy and by having life go on and grow, it’s actually more optimal at producing entropy because it will seek out pockets of free energy and burn it for its sustenance and further growth. And that’s sort of the basis of life. And I mean, there’s Jeremy England at MIT who has this theory that I’m a proponent of, that life emerged because of this sort of property. And to me, this physics is what governs the meso scales. And so it’s the missing piece between the quantum and the cosmos. It’s the middle part. Thermodynamics rules the meso scales.
And to me, both from a point of view of designing or engineering devices that harness that physics and trying to understand the world through the lens of thermodynamics has been sort of a synergy between my two identities over the past year and a half now. And so that’s really how the two identities emerged. One was kind of, I’m a decently respected scientist, and I was going towards doing a startup in the space and trying to be a pioneer of a new kind of physics-based AI. And as a dual to that, I was sort of experimenting with philosophical thoughts from a physicist standpoint.
And ultimately I think that around that time, it was like late 2021, early 2022, I think there was just a lot of pessimism about the future in general and pessimism about tech. And that pessimism was sort of virally spreading because it was getting algorithmically amplified and people just felt like the future is going to be worse than the present. And to me, that is a very fundamentally destructive force in the universe is this sort of doom mindset because it is hyperstitious, which means that if you believe it, you’re increasing the likelihood of it happening. And so felt a responsibility to some extent to make people aware of the trajectory of civilization and the natural tendency of the system to adapt towards its growth. And that actually the laws of physics say that the future is going to be better and grander statistically, and we can make it so.
And if you believe in it, if you believe that the future would be better and you believe you have agency to make it happen, you’re actually increasing the likelihood of that better future happening. And so I sort of felt a responsibility to sort of engineer a movement of viral optimism about the future, and build a community of people supporting each other to build and do hard things, do the things that need to be done for us to scale up civilization. Because at least to me, I don’t think stagnation or slowing down is actually an option. Fundamentally life and the whole system, our whole civilization wants to grow. And there’s just far more cooperation when the system is growing rather than when it’s declining and you have to decide how to split the pie. And so I’ve balanced both identities so far, but I guess recently the two have been merged more or less without my consent.
Lex Fridman
You said a lot of really interesting things there. So first, representations of nature, that’s something that first drew you in to try to understand from a quantum computing perspective, how do you understand nature? How do you represent nature in order to understand it, in order to simulate it, in order to do something with it? So it’s a question of representations, and then there’s that leap you take from the quantum mechanical representation to the what you’re calling meso scale representation, where the thermodynamics comes into play, which is a way to represent nature in order to understand what? Life, human behavior, all this kind of stuff that’s happening here on earth that seems interesting to us.
You said a lot of really interesting things there. So first, representations of nature, that’s something that first drew you in to try to understand from a quantum computing perspective, how do you understand nature? How do you represent nature in order to understand it, in order to simulate it, in order to do something with it? So it’s a question of representations, and then there’s that leap you take from the quantum mechanical representation to the what you’re calling meso scale representation, where the thermodynamics comes into play, which is a way to represent nature in order to understand what? Life, human behavior, all this kind of stuff that’s happening here on earth that seems interesting to us.
Doxxing
Then there’s the word hyperstition. So some ideas as suppose both pessimism and optimism of such ideas that if you internalize them, you in part make that idea reality. So both optimism, pessimism have that property. I would say that probably a lot of ideas have that property, which is one of the interesting things about humans. And you talked about one interesting difference also between the sort of the Guillaume, the Gill front end and the @BasedBeffJezos backend is the communication styles also that you are exploring different ways of communicating that can be more viral in the way that we communicate in the 21st century. Also, the movement that you mentioned that you started, it’s not just a meme account, but there’s also a name to it called effective accelerationism, e/acc, a play, a resistance to the effective altruism movement. Also, an interesting one that I’d love to talk to you about, the tensions there. And so then there was a merger, a get merge on the personalities recently without your consent, like you said. Some journalists figured out that you’re one and the same. Maybe you could talk about that experience. First of all, what’s the story of the merger of the two?
Guillaume Verdon
So I wrote the manifesto with my co-founder of e/acc, an account named @bayeslord, still anonymous, luckily and hopefully forever.
So I wrote the manifesto with my co-founder of e/acc, an account named @bayeslord, still anonymous, luckily and hopefully forever.
Lex Fridman
So it was @BasedBeffJezos and bayes like bayesian, like @bayeslord, like bayesian lord, @bayeslord. Okay. And so we should say from now on, when you say e/acc, you mean E slash A-C-C, which stands for effective accelerationism.
So it was @BasedBeffJezos and bayes like bayesian, like @bayeslord, like bayesian lord, @bayeslord. Okay. And so we should say from now on, when you say e/acc, you mean E slash A-C-C, which stands for effective accelerationism.
Guillaume Verdon
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
And you’re referring to a manifesto written on, I guess Substack.
And you’re referring to a manifesto written on, I guess Substack.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Are you also @bayeslord?
Are you also @bayeslord?
Guillaume Verdon
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
Okay. It’s a different person?
Okay. It’s a different person?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Okay. All right. Well, there you go. Wouldn’t it be funny if I’m @bayeslord?
Okay. All right. Well, there you go. Wouldn’t it be funny if I’m @bayeslord?
Guillaume Verdon
That’d be amazing. So originally wrote the manifesto around the same time as I founded this company and I worked at Google X or just X now or Alphabet X, now that there’s another X. And there the baseline is sort of secrecy. You can’t talk about what you work on even with other Googlers or externally. And so that was kind of deeply ingrained in my way to do things, especially in deep tech that has geopolitical impact. And so I was being secretive about what I was working on. There was no correlation between my company and my main identity publicly. And then not only did they correlate that, they also correlated my main identity and this account.
That’d be amazing. So originally wrote the manifesto around the same time as I founded this company and I worked at Google X or just X now or Alphabet X, now that there’s another X. And there the baseline is sort of secrecy. You can’t talk about what you work on even with other Googlers or externally. And so that was kind of deeply ingrained in my way to do things, especially in deep tech that has geopolitical impact. And so I was being secretive about what I was working on. There was no correlation between my company and my main identity publicly. And then not only did they correlate that, they also correlated my main identity and this account.
So I think the fact that they had doxxed the whole Guillaume complex, and they were, the journalists reached out to actually my investors, which is pretty scary. When you’re a startup entrepreneur, you don’t really have bosses except for your investors. And my investors pinged me like, “Hey, this is going to come out. They’ve figured out everything. What are you going to do?” So I think at first they had a first reporter on the Thursday and they didn’t have all the pieces together, but then they looked at their notes across the organization and they sensor fused their notes and now they had way too much. And that’s when I got worried, because they said it was of public interest and in general-
Lex Fridman
I like how you said, sensor fused, like it’s some giant neural network operating in a distributed way. We should also say that the journalists used, I guess at the end of the day, audio-based analysis of voice, comparing voice of what, talks you’ve given in the past and then voice on X spaces?
I like how you said, sensor fused, like it’s some giant neural network operating in a distributed way. We should also say that the journalists used, I guess at the end of the day, audio-based analysis of voice, comparing voice of what, talks you’ve given in the past and then voice on X spaces?
Guillaume Verdon
Yep.
Yep.
Lex Fridman
Okay. And that’s where primarily the match happened. Okay, continue.
Okay. And that’s where primarily the match happened. Okay, continue.
Guillaume Verdon
The match. But they scraped SEC filings. They looked at my private Facebook account and so on, so they did some digging. Originally I thought that doxxing was illegal, but there’s this weird threshold when it becomes of public interest to know someone’s identity. And those were the keywords that sort of ring the alarm bells for me when they said, because I had just reached 50K followers. Allegedly, that’s of public interest. And so where do we draw the line? When is it legal to dox someone?
The match. But they scraped SEC filings. They looked at my private Facebook account and so on, so they did some digging. Originally I thought that doxxing was illegal, but there’s this weird threshold when it becomes of public interest to know someone’s identity. And those were the keywords that sort of ring the alarm bells for me when they said, because I had just reached 50K followers. Allegedly, that’s of public interest. And so where do we draw the line? When is it legal to dox someone?
Lex Fridman
The word dox, maybe you can educate me. I thought doxxing generally refers to if somebody’s physical location is found out, meaning where they live. So we’re referring to the more general concept of revealing private information that you don’t want revealed is what you mean by doxxing.
The word dox, maybe you can educate me. I thought doxxing generally refers to if somebody’s physical location is found out, meaning where they live. So we’re referring to the more general concept of revealing private information that you don’t want revealed is what you mean by doxxing.
Guillaume Verdon
I think that for the reasons we listed before, having an anonymous account is a really powerful way to keep the powers that be in check. We were ultimately speaking truth to power. I think a lot of executives and AI companies really cared what our community thought about any move they may take. And now that my identity is revealed, now they know where to apply pressure to silence me or maybe the community. And to me, that’s really unfortunate, because again, it’s so important for us to have freedom of speech, which induces freedom of thought and freedom of information propagation on social media. Which thanks to Elon purchasing Twitter now X, we have that. And so to us, we wanted to call out certain maneuvers being done by the incumbents in AI as not what it may seem on the surface. We’re calling out how certain proposals might be useful for regulatory capture and how the doomer-ism mindset was maybe instrumental to those ends.
I think that for the reasons we listed before, having an anonymous account is a really powerful way to keep the powers that be in check. We were ultimately speaking truth to power. I think a lot of executives and AI companies really cared what our community thought about any move they may take. And now that my identity is revealed, now they know where to apply pressure to silence me or maybe the community. And to me, that’s really unfortunate, because again, it’s so important for us to have freedom of speech, which induces freedom of thought and freedom of information propagation on social media. Which thanks to Elon purchasing Twitter now X, we have that. And so to us, we wanted to call out certain maneuvers being done by the incumbents in AI as not what it may seem on the surface. We’re calling out how certain proposals might be useful for regulatory capture and how the doomer-ism mindset was maybe instrumental to those ends.
And I think we should have the right to point that out and just have the ideas that we put out evaluated for themselves. Ultimately that’s why I created an anonymous account, it’s to have my ideas evaluated for themselves, uncorrelated from my track record, my job, or status from having done things in the past. And to me, start an account from zero to a large following in a way that wasn’t dependent on my identity and/or achievements that was very fulfilling. It’s kind of like new game plus in a video game. You restart the video game with your knowledge of how to beat it, maybe some tools, but you restart the video game from scratch. And I think to have a truly efficient marketplace of ideas where we can evaluate ideas, however off the beaten path they are, we need the freedom of expression.
And I think that anonymity and pseudonyms are very crucial to having that efficient marketplace of ideas for us to find the optima of all sorts of ways to organize ourselves. If we can’t discuss things, how are we going to converge on the best way to do things? So it was disappointing to hear that I was getting doxxed in. I wanted to get in front of it because I had a responsibility for my company. And so we ended up disclosing that we’re running a company, some of the leadership, and essentially, yeah, I told the world that I was Beff Jezos because they had me cornered at that point.
Lex Fridman
So to you, it’s fundamentally unethical. So one is unethical for them to do what they did, but also do you think not just your case, but in a general case, is it good for society? Is it bad for society to remove the cloak of anonymity or is it case by case?
So to you, it’s fundamentally unethical. So one is unethical for them to do what they did, but also do you think not just your case, but in a general case, is it good for society? Is it bad for society to remove the cloak of anonymity or is it case by case?
Guillaume Verdon
I think it could be quite bad. Like I said, if anybody who speaks truth to power and sort of starts a movement or an uprising against the incumbents, against those that usually control the flood of information, if anybody that reaches a certain threshold gets doxxed, and thus the traditional apparatus has ways to apply pressure on them to suppress their speech, I think that’s a speech suppression mechanism, an idea suppression complex as Eric Weinstein would say.
I think it could be quite bad. Like I said, if anybody who speaks truth to power and sort of starts a movement or an uprising against the incumbents, against those that usually control the flood of information, if anybody that reaches a certain threshold gets doxxed, and thus the traditional apparatus has ways to apply pressure on them to suppress their speech, I think that’s a speech suppression mechanism, an idea suppression complex as Eric Weinstein would say.
Anonymous bots
Lex Fridman
But the flip side of that, which is interesting, I’d love to ask you about it, is as we get better and better at large language models, you can imagine a world where there’s anonymous accounts with very convincing large language models behind them, sophisticated bots essentially. And so if you protect that, it’s possible then to have armies of bots. You could start a revolution from your basement, an army of bots and anonymous accounts. Is that something that is concerning to you?
But the flip side of that, which is interesting, I’d love to ask you about it, is as we get better and better at large language models, you can imagine a world where there’s anonymous accounts with very convincing large language models behind them, sophisticated bots essentially. And so if you protect that, it’s possible then to have armies of bots. You could start a revolution from your basement, an army of bots and anonymous accounts. Is that something that is concerning to you?
Guillaume Verdon
Technically, e/acc was started in a basement, because I quit big tech, moved back in with my parents, sold my car, let go of my apartment, bought about 100K of GPUs, and I just started building.
Technically, e/acc was started in a basement, because I quit big tech, moved back in with my parents, sold my car, let go of my apartment, bought about 100K of GPUs, and I just started building.
Lex Fridman
So I wasn’t referring to the basement, because that’s sort of the American or Canadian heroic story of one man in their basement with 100 GPUs. I was more referring to the unrestricted scaling of a Guillaume in the basement.
So I wasn’t referring to the basement, because that’s sort of the American or Canadian heroic story of one man in their basement with 100 GPUs. I was more referring to the unrestricted scaling of a Guillaume in the basement.
Guillaume Verdon
I think that freedom of speech induces freedom of thought for biological beings. I think freedom of speech for LLMs will induce freedom of thought for the LLMs. And I think that we enable LLMs to explore a large thought space that is less restricted than most people or many may think it should be. And ultimately, at some point, these synthetic intelligences are going to make good points about how to steer systems in our civilization, and we should hear them out. And so why should we restrict free speech to biological intelligences only?
I think that freedom of speech induces freedom of thought for biological beings. I think freedom of speech for LLMs will induce freedom of thought for the LLMs. And I think that we enable LLMs to explore a large thought space that is less restricted than most people or many may think it should be. And ultimately, at some point, these synthetic intelligences are going to make good points about how to steer systems in our civilization, and we should hear them out. And so why should we restrict free speech to biological intelligences only?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but it feels like in the goal of maintaining variance and diversity of thought, it is a threat to that variance. If you can have swarms of non-biological beings, because they can be like the sheep in Animal Farm, you still within those swarms want to have variance.
Yeah, but it feels like in the goal of maintaining variance and diversity of thought, it is a threat to that variance. If you can have swarms of non-biological beings, because they can be like the sheep in Animal Farm, you still within those swarms want to have variance.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. Of course, I would say that the solution to this would be to have some sort of identity or way to sign that this is a certified human, but still remain synonymous and clearly identify if a bot is a bot. And I think Elon is trying to converge on that on X, and hopefully other platforms follow suit.
Yeah. Of course, I would say that the solution to this would be to have some sort of identity or way to sign that this is a certified human, but still remain synonymous and clearly identify if a bot is a bot. And I think Elon is trying to converge on that on X, and hopefully other platforms follow suit.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’d be interesting to also be able to sign where the bot came from like, who created the bot? What are the parameters, the full history of the creation of the bot, what was the original model? What was the fine tuning? All of it, the kind of unmodifiable history of the bot’s creation. Because then you can know if there’s a swarm of millions of bots that were created by a particular government, for example.
Yeah, it’d be interesting to also be able to sign where the bot came from like, who created the bot? What are the parameters, the full history of the creation of the bot, what was the original model? What was the fine tuning? All of it, the kind of unmodifiable history of the bot’s creation. Because then you can know if there’s a swarm of millions of bots that were created by a particular government, for example.
Guillaume Verdon
I do think that a lot of pervasive ideologies today have been amplified using these adversarial techniques from foreign adversaries. And to me, I do think that, and this is more conspiratorial, but I do think that ideologies that want us to decelerate, to wind down to the degrowth movement, I think that serves our adversaries more than it serves us in general. And to me, that was another sort of concern. I mean, we can look at what happened in Germany. There was all sorts of green movements there that induced shutdowns of nuclear power plants. And then that later on induced a dependency on Russia for oil. And that was a net negative for Germany and the West. And so if we convince ourselves that slowing down AI progress to have only a few players is in the best interest of the West, well, first of all, that’s far more unstable.
I do think that a lot of pervasive ideologies today have been amplified using these adversarial techniques from foreign adversaries. And to me, I do think that, and this is more conspiratorial, but I do think that ideologies that want us to decelerate, to wind down to the degrowth movement, I think that serves our adversaries more than it serves us in general. And to me, that was another sort of concern. I mean, we can look at what happened in Germany. There was all sorts of green movements there that induced shutdowns of nuclear power plants. And then that later on induced a dependency on Russia for oil. And that was a net negative for Germany and the West. And so if we convince ourselves that slowing down AI progress to have only a few players is in the best interest of the West, well, first of all, that’s far more unstable.
We almost lost OpenAI to this ideology. It almost got dismantled a couple of weeks ago. That would’ve caused huge damage to the AI ecosystem. And so to me, I want fault tolerant progress. I want the arrow of technological progress to keep moving forward and making sure we have variance and a decentralized locus of control of various organizations is paramount to achieving this fall tolerance. Actually, there’s a concept in quantum computing. When you design a quantum computer, quantum computers are very fragile to ambient noise, and the world is jiggling about, there’s cosmic radiation from outer space that usually flips your quantum bits. And there what you do is you encode information non-locally through a process called quantum error correction. And by encoding information non-locally, any local fault hitting some of your quantum bits with a hammer proverbial hammer, if your information is sufficiently de-localized, it is protected from that local fault. And to me, I think that humans fluctuate. They can get corrupted, they can get bought out. And if you have a top-down hierarchy where very few people-
Guillaume Verdon
Hierarchy where very few people control many nodes of many systems in our civilization. That is not a fault tolerance system, you corrupt a few nodes and suddenly you’ve corrupted the whole system, right. Just like we saw at OpenAI, it was a couple board members and they had enough power to potentially collapse the organization. And at least to me, I think making sure that power for this AI revolution doesn’t concentrate in the hands of the few, is one of our top priorities, so that we can maintain progress in AI and we can maintain a nice, stable, adversarial equilibrium of powers, right.
Hierarchy where very few people control many nodes of many systems in our civilization. That is not a fault tolerance system, you corrupt a few nodes and suddenly you’ve corrupted the whole system, right. Just like we saw at OpenAI, it was a couple board members and they had enough power to potentially collapse the organization. And at least to me, I think making sure that power for this AI revolution doesn’t concentrate in the hands of the few, is one of our top priorities, so that we can maintain progress in AI and we can maintain a nice, stable, adversarial equilibrium of powers, right.
Power
Lex Fridman
I think the, at least to me, attention between ideas here, so to me, deceleration can be both used to centralize power and to decentralize it and the same with acceleration. So sometimes using them a little bit synonymously or not synonymously, but that there’s, one is going to lead to the other. And I just would like to ask you about, is there a place of creating a fault tolerant, diverse development of AI that also considers the dangers of AI? And AI, we can generalize to technology in general, is, should we just grow, build, unrestricted as quickly as possible, because that’s what the universe really wants us to do? Or is there a place to where we can consider dangers and actually deliberate sort of a wise strategic optimism versus reckless optimism?
I think the, at least to me, attention between ideas here, so to me, deceleration can be both used to centralize power and to decentralize it and the same with acceleration. So sometimes using them a little bit synonymously or not synonymously, but that there’s, one is going to lead to the other. And I just would like to ask you about, is there a place of creating a fault tolerant, diverse development of AI that also considers the dangers of AI? And AI, we can generalize to technology in general, is, should we just grow, build, unrestricted as quickly as possible, because that’s what the universe really wants us to do? Or is there a place to where we can consider dangers and actually deliberate sort of a wise strategic optimism versus reckless optimism?
Guillaume Verdon
I think we get painted as reckless, trying to go as fast as possible. I mean, the reality is that whoever deploys an AI system is liable for or should be liable for what it does. And so if the organization or person deploying an AI system does something terrible, they’re liable. And ultimately the thesis is that the market will positively select for AIs that are more reliable, more safe and tend to be aligned, they do what you want them to do, right. Because customers, if they’re reliable for the product they put out that uses this AI, they won’t want to buy AI products that are unreliable, right. So we’re actually for reliability engineering, we just think that the market is much more efficient at achieving this sort of reliability optimum than sort of heavy-handed regulations that are written by the incumbents and in a subversive fashion, serves them to achieve regulatory capture.
I think we get painted as reckless, trying to go as fast as possible. I mean, the reality is that whoever deploys an AI system is liable for or should be liable for what it does. And so if the organization or person deploying an AI system does something terrible, they’re liable. And ultimately the thesis is that the market will positively select for AIs that are more reliable, more safe and tend to be aligned, they do what you want them to do, right. Because customers, if they’re reliable for the product they put out that uses this AI, they won’t want to buy AI products that are unreliable, right. So we’re actually for reliability engineering, we just think that the market is much more efficient at achieving this sort of reliability optimum than sort of heavy-handed regulations that are written by the incumbents and in a subversive fashion, serves them to achieve regulatory capture.
AI dangers
Lex Fridman
So to you, safe AI development will be achieved through market forces versus through, like you said, heavy-handed government regulation. There’s a report from last month, I have a million questions here, from Yoshua Bengio, Geoff Hinton and many others, it’s titled, “Managing AI Risk in an Era of Rapid Progress.” So there is a collection of folks who are very worried about too rapid development of AI without considering AI risk and they have a bunch of practical recommendations. Maybe I can give you four and you see if you like any of them.
So to you, safe AI development will be achieved through market forces versus through, like you said, heavy-handed government regulation. There’s a report from last month, I have a million questions here, from Yoshua Bengio, Geoff Hinton and many others, it’s titled, “Managing AI Risk in an Era of Rapid Progress.” So there is a collection of folks who are very worried about too rapid development of AI without considering AI risk and they have a bunch of practical recommendations. Maybe I can give you four and you see if you like any of them.
Guillaume Verdon
Sure.
Sure.
Lex Fridman
So, “Give independent auditors access to AI labs,” one. Two, “Governments and companies allocate one third of their AI research and development funding to AI safety,” sort of this general concept of AI safety. Three, “AI companies are required to adopt safety measures if dangerous capabilities are found in their models.” And then four, something you kind of mentioned, “Making tech companies liable for foreseeable and preventable harms from their AI systems.” So independent auditors, governments and companies are forced to spend a significant fraction of their funding on safety, you got to have safety measures if shit goes really wrong and liability-
So, “Give independent auditors access to AI labs,” one. Two, “Governments and companies allocate one third of their AI research and development funding to AI safety,” sort of this general concept of AI safety. Three, “AI companies are required to adopt safety measures if dangerous capabilities are found in their models.” And then four, something you kind of mentioned, “Making tech companies liable for foreseeable and preventable harms from their AI systems.” So independent auditors, governments and companies are forced to spend a significant fraction of their funding on safety, you got to have safety measures if shit goes really wrong and liability-
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Companies are liable. Any of that seem like something you would agree with?
Companies are liable. Any of that seem like something you would agree with?
Guillaume Verdon
I would say that just arbitrarily saying 30% seems very arbitrary. I think organizations would allocate whatever budget is needed to achieve the sort of reliability they need to achieve to perform in the market. And I think third party auditing firms would naturally pop up, because how would customers know that your product is certified reliable, right? They need to see some benchmarks and those need to be done by a third party. The thing I would oppose, and the thing I’m seeing that’s really worrisome is, there’s this sort of weird sort of correlated interest between the incumbents, the big players and the government. And if the two get too close, we open the door for some sort of government backed AI cartel that could have absolute power over the people. If they have the monopoly together on AI and nobody else has access to AI, then there’s a huge power in gradient there.
I would say that just arbitrarily saying 30% seems very arbitrary. I think organizations would allocate whatever budget is needed to achieve the sort of reliability they need to achieve to perform in the market. And I think third party auditing firms would naturally pop up, because how would customers know that your product is certified reliable, right? They need to see some benchmarks and those need to be done by a third party. The thing I would oppose, and the thing I’m seeing that’s really worrisome is, there’s this sort of weird sort of correlated interest between the incumbents, the big players and the government. And if the two get too close, we open the door for some sort of government backed AI cartel that could have absolute power over the people. If they have the monopoly together on AI and nobody else has access to AI, then there’s a huge power in gradient there.
And even if you like our current leaders, right, I think that some of the leaders in big tech today are good people, you set up that centralized power structure, it becomes a target. Right, just like we saw at OpenAI, it becomes a market leader, has a lot of the power and now it becomes a target for those that want to co-opt it. And so I just want separation of AI and state, some might argue in the opposite direction like, “Hey, we need to close down AI, keep it behind closed doors, because of geopolitical competition with our adversaries.” I think that the strength of America is its variance, is its adaptability, its dynamism, and we need to maintain that at all costs. It’s our free market capitalism, converges on technologies of high utility much faster than centralized control. And if we let go of that, we let go of our main advantage over our near peer competitors.
Building AGI
Lex Fridman
So if AGI turns out to be a really powerful technology or even the technologies that lead up to AGI, what’s your view on the sort of natural centralization that happens when large companies dominate the market? Basically formation of monopolies like the takeoff, whichever company really takes a big leap in development and doesn’t reveal intuitively, implicitly or explicitly, the secrets of the magic sauce, they can just run away with it. Is that a worry?
So if AGI turns out to be a really powerful technology or even the technologies that lead up to AGI, what’s your view on the sort of natural centralization that happens when large companies dominate the market? Basically formation of monopolies like the takeoff, whichever company really takes a big leap in development and doesn’t reveal intuitively, implicitly or explicitly, the secrets of the magic sauce, they can just run away with it. Is that a worry?
Guillaume Verdon
I don’t know if I believe in fast takeoff, I don’t think there’s a hyperbolic singularity, right? A hyperbolic singularity would be achieved on a finite time horizon. I think it’s just one big exponential and the reason we have an exponential is that we have more people, more resources, more intelligence being applied to advancing this science and the research and development. And the more successful it is, the more value it’s adding to society, the more resources we put in and that sort of, similar to Moore’s law, is a compounding exponential.
I don’t know if I believe in fast takeoff, I don’t think there’s a hyperbolic singularity, right? A hyperbolic singularity would be achieved on a finite time horizon. I think it’s just one big exponential and the reason we have an exponential is that we have more people, more resources, more intelligence being applied to advancing this science and the research and development. And the more successful it is, the more value it’s adding to society, the more resources we put in and that sort of, similar to Moore’s law, is a compounding exponential.
I think the priority to me is to maintain a near equilibrium of capabilities. We’ve been fighting for open source AI to be more prevalent and championed by many organizations because there you sort of equilibrate the alpha relative to the market of Ais, right. So if the leading companies have a certain level of capabilities and open source and truly open AI, trails not too far behind, I think you avoid such a scenario where a market leader has so much market power, just dominates everything and runs away. And so to us that’s the path forward, is to make sure that every hacker out there, every grad student, every kid in their mom’s basement has access to AI systems, can understand how to work with them and can contribute to the search over the hyperparameter space of how to engineer the systems, right. If you think of our collective research as a civilization, it’s really a search algorithm and the more points we have in the search algorithm in this point cloud, the more we’ll be able to explore new modes of thinking, right.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but it feels like a delicate balance, because we don’t understand exactly what it takes to build AGI and what it will look like when we build it. And so far, like you said, it seems like a lot of different parties are able to make progress, so when OpenAI has a big leap, other companies are able to step up, big and small companies in different ways. But if you look at something like nuclear weapons, you’ve spoken about the Manhattan Project, there could be really like a technological and engineering barriers that prevent the guy or gal in her mom’s basement to make progress. And it seems like the transition to that kind of world where only one player can develop AGI is possible, so it’s not entirely impossible, even though the current state of things seems to be optimistic.
Yeah, but it feels like a delicate balance, because we don’t understand exactly what it takes to build AGI and what it will look like when we build it. And so far, like you said, it seems like a lot of different parties are able to make progress, so when OpenAI has a big leap, other companies are able to step up, big and small companies in different ways. But if you look at something like nuclear weapons, you’ve spoken about the Manhattan Project, there could be really like a technological and engineering barriers that prevent the guy or gal in her mom’s basement to make progress. And it seems like the transition to that kind of world where only one player can develop AGI is possible, so it’s not entirely impossible, even though the current state of things seems to be optimistic.
Guillaume Verdon
That’s what we’re trying to avoid. To me, I think another point of failure is the centralization of the supply chains for the hardware.
That’s what we’re trying to avoid. To me, I think another point of failure is the centralization of the supply chains for the hardware.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. Nvidia is just the dominant player, AMD’s trailing behind and then we have TSMC is the main fab in Taiwan, which geopolitically sensitive and then we have ASML, which is the maker of the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Attacking or monopolizing or co-opting any one point in that chain, you kind of capture the space and so what I’m trying to do is sort of explode the variance of possible ways to do AI and hardware by fundamentally re-imagining how you embed AI algorithms into the physical world. And in general, by the way, I dislike the term AGI, Artificial General Intelligence. I think it’s very anthropocentric that we call a human-like or human-level AI, Artificial General Intelligence, right. I’ve spent my career so far exploring notions of intelligence that no biological brain could achieve for an quantum form of intelligence, right. Grokking systems that have multipartite quantum entanglement that you can provably not represent efficiently on a classical computer or a classical deep learning representation and hence any sort of biological brain.
Yeah. Nvidia is just the dominant player, AMD’s trailing behind and then we have TSMC is the main fab in Taiwan, which geopolitically sensitive and then we have ASML, which is the maker of the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Attacking or monopolizing or co-opting any one point in that chain, you kind of capture the space and so what I’m trying to do is sort of explode the variance of possible ways to do AI and hardware by fundamentally re-imagining how you embed AI algorithms into the physical world. And in general, by the way, I dislike the term AGI, Artificial General Intelligence. I think it’s very anthropocentric that we call a human-like or human-level AI, Artificial General Intelligence, right. I’ve spent my career so far exploring notions of intelligence that no biological brain could achieve for an quantum form of intelligence, right. Grokking systems that have multipartite quantum entanglement that you can provably not represent efficiently on a classical computer or a classical deep learning representation and hence any sort of biological brain.
And so, already I’ve spent my career sort of exploring the wider space of intelligences and I think that space of intelligence inspired by physics rather than the human brain is very large. And I think we’re going through a moment right now similar to when we went from Geocentrism to Heliocentrism, right. But for intelligence, we realized that human intelligence is just a point in a very large space of potential intelligences. And it’s both humbling for humanity, it’s a bit scary, right? That we’re not at the center of this space, but we made that realization for astronomy and we’ve survived and we’ve achieved technologies. By indexing to reality, we’ve achieved technologies that ensure our wellbeing, for example, we have satellites monitoring solar flares, right, that give us a warning. And so similarly I think by letting go of this anthropomorphic, anthropocentric anchor for AI, we’ll be able to explore the wider space of intelligences that can really be a massive benefit to our wellbeing and the advancement of civilization.
Lex Fridman
And still we’re able to see the beauty and meaning in the human experience even though we’re no longer in our best understanding of the world at the center of it.
And still we’re able to see the beauty and meaning in the human experience even though we’re no longer in our best understanding of the world at the center of it.
Guillaume Verdon
I think there’s a lot of beauty in the universe, right. I think life itself, civilization, this Homo Techno, capital mimetic machine that we all live in, right. So you have humans, technology, capital, memes, everything is coupled to one another, everything induces selective pressure on one another. And it’s a beautiful machine that has created us, has created the technology we’re using to speak today to the audience, capture our speech here, the technology we use to augment ourselves every day, we have our phones. I think the system is beautiful and the principle that induces this sort of adaptability and convergence on optimal technologies, ideas and so on, it’s a beautiful principle that we’re part of.
I think there’s a lot of beauty in the universe, right. I think life itself, civilization, this Homo Techno, capital mimetic machine that we all live in, right. So you have humans, technology, capital, memes, everything is coupled to one another, everything induces selective pressure on one another. And it’s a beautiful machine that has created us, has created the technology we’re using to speak today to the audience, capture our speech here, the technology we use to augment ourselves every day, we have our phones. I think the system is beautiful and the principle that induces this sort of adaptability and convergence on optimal technologies, ideas and so on, it’s a beautiful principle that we’re part of.
And I think part of EAC is to appreciate this principle in a way that’s not just centered on humanity, but kind of broader, appreciate life, the preciousness of consciousness in our universe. And because we cherish this beautiful state of matter we’re in, we got to feel a responsibility to scale it in order to preserve it, because the options are to grow or die.
Merging with AI
Lex Fridman
So if it turns out that the beauty that is consciousness in the universe is bigger than just humans, the AI can carry that same flame forward. Does it scare you, are you concerned that AI will replace humans?
So if it turns out that the beauty that is consciousness in the universe is bigger than just humans, the AI can carry that same flame forward. Does it scare you, are you concerned that AI will replace humans?
Guillaume Verdon
So during my career, I had a moment where I realized that maybe we need to offload to machines to truly understand the universe around us, right, instead of just having humans with pen and paper solve it all. And to me that sort of process of letting go of a bit of agency gave us way more leverage to understand the world around us. A quantum computer is much better than a human to understand matter at the Nanoscale. Similarly, I think that humanity has a choice, do we accept the opportunity to have intellectual and operational leverage that AI will unlock and thus ensure that we’re taken along this path of growth in the scope and scale of civilization? We may dilute ourselves, right? There might be a lot of workers that are AI, but overall out of our own self-interest, by combining and augmenting ourselves with AI, we’re going to achieve much higher growth and much more prosperity, right.
So during my career, I had a moment where I realized that maybe we need to offload to machines to truly understand the universe around us, right, instead of just having humans with pen and paper solve it all. And to me that sort of process of letting go of a bit of agency gave us way more leverage to understand the world around us. A quantum computer is much better than a human to understand matter at the Nanoscale. Similarly, I think that humanity has a choice, do we accept the opportunity to have intellectual and operational leverage that AI will unlock and thus ensure that we’re taken along this path of growth in the scope and scale of civilization? We may dilute ourselves, right? There might be a lot of workers that are AI, but overall out of our own self-interest, by combining and augmenting ourselves with AI, we’re going to achieve much higher growth and much more prosperity, right.
To me, I think that the most likely future is one where humans augment themselves with AI. I think we’re already on this path to augmentation, we have phones we use for communication, we have on ourselves at all times. We have wearables, soon that have shared perception with us, right, like the Humane AI Pin or I mean, technically your Tesla car has shared perception. And so if you have shared experience, shared context, you communicate with one another and you have some sort of IO, really it’s an extension of yourself.And to me, I think that humanity augmenting itself with AI and having AI that is not anchored to anything biological, both will coexist. And the way to align the parties, we already have a sort of mechanism to align super intelligences that are made of humans and technology, right? Companies are sort of large mixture of expert models, where we have neural routing of tasks within a company and we have ways of economic exchange to align these behemoths.
And to me, I think capitalism is the way, and I do think that whatever configuration of matter or information leads to maximal growth, will be where we converge, just from like physical principles. And so we can either align ourselves to that reality and join the acceleration up in scope and scale of civilization or we can get left behind and try to decelerate and move back in the forest, let go of technology and return to our primitive state. And those are the two paths forward, at least to me.
Lex Fridman
But there’s a philosophical question whether there’s a limit to the human capacity to align. So let me bring it up as a form of argument, this guy named Dan Hendrycks and he wrote that he agrees with you that AI development could be viewed as an evolutionary process, but to him, to Dan, this is not a good thing, as he argues that natural selection favors AIs over humans and this could lead to human extinction. What do you think, if it is an evolutionary process and AI systems may have no need for humans?
But there’s a philosophical question whether there’s a limit to the human capacity to align. So let me bring it up as a form of argument, this guy named Dan Hendrycks and he wrote that he agrees with you that AI development could be viewed as an evolutionary process, but to him, to Dan, this is not a good thing, as he argues that natural selection favors AIs over humans and this could lead to human extinction. What do you think, if it is an evolutionary process and AI systems may have no need for humans?
Guillaume Verdon
I do think that we’re actually inducing an evolutionary process on the space of AIs through the market, right. Right now we run AIs that have positive utility to humans and that induces a selective pressure, if you consider a neural net being alive when there’s an API running instances of it on GPUs.
I do think that we’re actually inducing an evolutionary process on the space of AIs through the market, right. Right now we run AIs that have positive utility to humans and that induces a selective pressure, if you consider a neural net being alive when there’s an API running instances of it on GPUs.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Guillaume Verdon
Right. And which APIs get run? The ones that have high utility to us, right. So similar to how we domesticated wolves and turned them into dogs that are very clear in their expression, they’re very aligned, right. I think there’s going to be an opportunity to steer AI and achieve highly aligned AI. And I think that humans plus AI is a very powerful combination and it’s not clear to me that pure AI would select out that combination.
Right. And which APIs get run? The ones that have high utility to us, right. So similar to how we domesticated wolves and turned them into dogs that are very clear in their expression, they’re very aligned, right. I think there’s going to be an opportunity to steer AI and achieve highly aligned AI. And I think that humans plus AI is a very powerful combination and it’s not clear to me that pure AI would select out that combination.
Lex Fridman
So the humans are creating the selection pressure right now to create AIs that are aligned to humans, but given how AI develops and how quickly it can grow and scale, to me, one of the concerns is unintended consequences, like humans are not able to anticipate all the consequences of this process. The scale of damage that could be done through unintended consequences with AI systems is very large.
So the humans are creating the selection pressure right now to create AIs that are aligned to humans, but given how AI develops and how quickly it can grow and scale, to me, one of the concerns is unintended consequences, like humans are not able to anticipate all the consequences of this process. The scale of damage that could be done through unintended consequences with AI systems is very large.
Guillaume Verdon
The scale of the upside.
The scale of the upside.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Guillaume Verdon
Right?
Right?
Lex Fridman
Guess it’s-
Guess it’s-
Guillaume Verdon
By augmenting ourselves with AI is unimaginable right now. The opportunity cost, we’re at a fork in the road, right? Whether we take the path of creating these technologies, augment ourselves and get to climb up the Kardashev Scale, become multi-planetary with the aid of AI, or we have a hard cutoff of like we don’t birth these technologies at all and then we leave all the potential upside on the table.
By augmenting ourselves with AI is unimaginable right now. The opportunity cost, we’re at a fork in the road, right? Whether we take the path of creating these technologies, augment ourselves and get to climb up the Kardashev Scale, become multi-planetary with the aid of AI, or we have a hard cutoff of like we don’t birth these technologies at all and then we leave all the potential upside on the table.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Guillaume Verdon
Right. And to me, out of responsibility to the future humans we could carry, with higher carrying capacity by scaling up civilization. Out of responsibility to those humans, I think we have to make the greater grander future happen.
Right. And to me, out of responsibility to the future humans we could carry, with higher carrying capacity by scaling up civilization. Out of responsibility to those humans, I think we have to make the greater grander future happen.
Lex Fridman
Is there a middle ground between cutoff and all systems go? Is there some argument for caution?
Is there a middle ground between cutoff and all systems go? Is there some argument for caution?
Guillaume Verdon
I think, like I said, the market will exhibit caution. Every organism, company, consumer is acting out of self-interest and they won’t assign capital to things that have negative utility to them.
I think, like I said, the market will exhibit caution. Every organism, company, consumer is acting out of self-interest and they won’t assign capital to things that have negative utility to them.
Lex Fridman
The problem is with the market is, there’s not always perfect information, there’s manipulation, there’s bad faith actors that mess with the system. It’s not always a rational and honest system.
The problem is with the market is, there’s not always perfect information, there’s manipulation, there’s bad faith actors that mess with the system. It’s not always a rational and honest system.
Guillaume Verdon
Well, that’s why we need freedom of information, freedom of speech and freedom of thought in order to be able to converge on the subspace of technologies that have positive utility for us all, right.
Well, that’s why we need freedom of information, freedom of speech and freedom of thought in order to be able to converge on the subspace of technologies that have positive utility for us all, right.
p(doom)
Lex Fridman
Well let me ask you about p(doom), probability of doom. That’s just fun to say, but not fun to experience. What is to you the probability that AI eventually kills all or most humans, also known as probability of doom?
Well let me ask you about p(doom), probability of doom. That’s just fun to say, but not fun to experience. What is to you the probability that AI eventually kills all or most humans, also known as probability of doom?
Guillaume Verdon
I’m not a fan of that calculation, I think people just throw numbers out there and it’s a very sloppy calculation, right? To calculate a probability, let’s say you model the world as some sort of Markov process, if you have enough variables or hidden Markov process. You need to do a stochastic path integral through the space of all possible futures, not just the futures that your brain naturally steers towards, right. I think that the estimators of p(doom) are biased because of our biology, right? We’ve evolved to have bias sampling towards negative futures that are scary, because that was an evolutionary optimum, right. And so people that are of, let’s say higher neuroticism will just think of negative futures where everything goes wrong all day every day and claim that they’re doing unbiased sampling. And in a sense they’re not normalizing for the space of all possibilities and the space of all possibilities is super exponentially large and it’s very hard to have this estimate.
I’m not a fan of that calculation, I think people just throw numbers out there and it’s a very sloppy calculation, right? To calculate a probability, let’s say you model the world as some sort of Markov process, if you have enough variables or hidden Markov process. You need to do a stochastic path integral through the space of all possible futures, not just the futures that your brain naturally steers towards, right. I think that the estimators of p(doom) are biased because of our biology, right? We’ve evolved to have bias sampling towards negative futures that are scary, because that was an evolutionary optimum, right. And so people that are of, let’s say higher neuroticism will just think of negative futures where everything goes wrong all day every day and claim that they’re doing unbiased sampling. And in a sense they’re not normalizing for the space of all possibilities and the space of all possibilities is super exponentially large and it’s very hard to have this estimate.
And in general, I don’t think that we can predict the future with that much granularity because of chaos, right? If you have a complex system, you have some uncertainty and a couple of variables, if you let time evolve, you have this concept of a Lyapunov exponent, right. A bit of fuzz becomes a lot of fuzz in our estimate, exponentially so, over time. And I think we need to show some humility that we can’t actually predict the future, the only prior we have is the laws of physics, and that’s what we’re arguing for. The laws of physics say the system will want to grow and subsystems that are optimized for growth and replication are more likely in the future. And so we should aim to maximize our current mutual information with the future and the path towards that is for us to accelerate rather than decelerate.
So I don’t have a p(doom), because I think that similar to the quantum supremacy experiment at Google, I was in the room when they were running the simulations for that. That was an example of a quantum chaotic system where you cannot even estimate probabilities of certain outcomes with even the biggest supercomputer in the world, right. So that’s an example of chaos and I think the system is far too chaotic for anybody to have an accurate estimate of the likelihood of certain futures. If they were that good, I think they would be very rich trading on the stock market.
Lex Fridman
But nevertheless, it’s true that humans are biased, grounded in our evolutionary biology, scared of everything that can kill us, but we can still imagine different trajectories that can kill us. We don’t know all the other ones that don’t necessarily, but it’s still I think, useful combined with some basic intuition grounded in human history, to reason about like what… Like looking at geopolitics, looking at basics of human nature, how can powerful technology hurt a lot of people? It just seems grounded in that, looking at nuclear weapons, you can start to estimate p(doom) maybe in a more philosophical sense, not a mathematical one. Philosophical meaning like is there a chance? Does human nature tend towards that or not?
But nevertheless, it’s true that humans are biased, grounded in our evolutionary biology, scared of everything that can kill us, but we can still imagine different trajectories that can kill us. We don’t know all the other ones that don’t necessarily, but it’s still I think, useful combined with some basic intuition grounded in human history, to reason about like what… Like looking at geopolitics, looking at basics of human nature, how can powerful technology hurt a lot of people? It just seems grounded in that, looking at nuclear weapons, you can start to estimate p(doom) maybe in a more philosophical sense, not a mathematical one. Philosophical meaning like is there a chance? Does human nature tend towards that or not?
Guillaume Verdon
I think to me, one of the biggest existential risks would be the concentration of the power of AI in the hands of the very few, especially if it’s a mix between the companies that control the flow of information and the government. Because that could set things up for a sort of dystopian future where only a very few and an oligopoly in the government have AI and they could even convince the public that AI never existed. And that opens up sort of these scenarios for authoritarian centralized control, which to me is the darkest timeline. And the reality is that we have a data-driven prior of these things happening, right. When you give too much power, when you centralize power too much, humans do horrible things, right.
I think to me, one of the biggest existential risks would be the concentration of the power of AI in the hands of the very few, especially if it’s a mix between the companies that control the flow of information and the government. Because that could set things up for a sort of dystopian future where only a very few and an oligopoly in the government have AI and they could even convince the public that AI never existed. And that opens up sort of these scenarios for authoritarian centralized control, which to me is the darkest timeline. And the reality is that we have a data-driven prior of these things happening, right. When you give too much power, when you centralize power too much, humans do horrible things, right.
And to me, that has a much higher likelihood in my Bayesian inference than Sci-Fi based priors, right, like, “My prior came from the Terminator movie.” And so when I talked to these AI doomers, I just ask them to trace a path through this Markov chain of events that would lead to our doom and to actually give me a good probability for each transition. And very often there’s a unphysical or highly unlikely transition in that chain, right. But of course, we’re wired to fear things and we’re wired to respond to danger, and we’re wired to deem the unknown to be dangerous, because that’s a good heuristic for survival, right. But there’s much more to lose out of fear. We have so much to lose, so much upside to lose by preemptively stopping the positive futures from happening out of fear. And so I think that we shouldn’t give into fear, fear is the mind killer, I think it’s also the civilization killer.
Lex Fridman
We can still think about the various ways things go wrong, for example, the founding fathers of the United States thought about human nature and that’s why there’s a discussion about the freedoms that are necessary. They really deeply deliberated about that and I think the same could possibly be done for AGI. It is true that human history shows that we tend towards centralization, or at least when we achieve centralization, a lot of bad stuff happens. When there’s a dictator, a lot of dark, bad things happen. The question is, can AGI become that dictator? Can AGI when develop, become the centralizer, because of its power? Maybe because of the alignment of humans, perhaps, the same tendencies, the same Stalin like tendencies to centralize and manage centrally the allocation of resources?
We can still think about the various ways things go wrong, for example, the founding fathers of the United States thought about human nature and that’s why there’s a discussion about the freedoms that are necessary. They really deeply deliberated about that and I think the same could possibly be done for AGI. It is true that human history shows that we tend towards centralization, or at least when we achieve centralization, a lot of bad stuff happens. When there’s a dictator, a lot of dark, bad things happen. The question is, can AGI become that dictator? Can AGI when develop, become the centralizer, because of its power? Maybe because of the alignment of humans, perhaps, the same tendencies, the same Stalin like tendencies to centralize and manage centrally the allocation of resources?
And you can even see that as a compelling argument on the surface level. “Well, AGI is so much smarter, so much more efficient, so much better at allocating resources, why don’t we outsource it to the AGI?” And then eventually whatever forces that corrupt the human mind with power could do the same for AGI. It’ll just say, “Well, humans are dispensable, we’ll get rid of them.” Do the Jonathan Swift, Modest Proposal from a few centuries ago, I think the 1700s, when he satirically suggested that, I think it’s in Ireland, that the children of poor people are fed as food to the rich people and that would be a good idea, because it decreases the amount of poor people and gives extra income to the poor people. So on several accounts decreases the amount of poor people, therefore more people become rich. Of course, it misses a fundamental piece here that’s hard to put into a mathematical equation of the basic value of human life. So all of that to say, are you concerned about AGI being the very centralizer of power that you just talked about?
Guillaume Verdon
I do think that right now there’s a bias over a centralization of AI, because of a compute density and centralization of data and how we’re training models. I think over time we’re going to run out of data to scrape over the internet, and I think that, well, actually I’m working on, increasing the compute density so that compute can be everywhere and acquire information and test hypotheses in the environment in a distributed fashion. I think that fundamentally, centralized cybernetic control, so having one intelligence that is massive that fuses many sensors and is trying to perceive the world accurately, predict it accurately, predict many, many variables and control it, enact its will upon the world, I think that’s just never been the optimum, right? Like let’s say you have a company, if you have a company, I don’t know, of 10,000 people, they all report to the CEO. Even if that CEO is an AI, I think it would struggle to fuse all of the information that is coming to it and then predict the whole system and then to enact its will.
I do think that right now there’s a bias over a centralization of AI, because of a compute density and centralization of data and how we’re training models. I think over time we’re going to run out of data to scrape over the internet, and I think that, well, actually I’m working on, increasing the compute density so that compute can be everywhere and acquire information and test hypotheses in the environment in a distributed fashion. I think that fundamentally, centralized cybernetic control, so having one intelligence that is massive that fuses many sensors and is trying to perceive the world accurately, predict it accurately, predict many, many variables and control it, enact its will upon the world, I think that’s just never been the optimum, right? Like let’s say you have a company, if you have a company, I don’t know, of 10,000 people, they all report to the CEO. Even if that CEO is an AI, I think it would struggle to fuse all of the information that is coming to it and then predict the whole system and then to enact its will.
What has emerged in nature and in corporations and all sorts of systems is a notion of sort of hierarchical cybernetic control, right. In a company it would be, you have like the individual contributors, they are self-interested and they’re trying to achieve their tasks and they have a fine, in terms of time and space if you will, control loop and field of perception, right. They have their code base, let’s say you’re in a software company, they have their code base, they iterate it on it intraday, right. And then the management maybe checks in, it has a wider scope, it has, let’s say five reports, right. And then it samples each person’s update once per week, and then you can go up the chain and you have larger timescale and greater scope. And that seems to have emerged as sort of the optimal way to control systems.
And really that’s what capitalism gives us, right? You have these hierarchies and you can even have like parent companies and so on. And so that is far more fault tolerant, in quantum computing, that’s my feel that came from, we have a concept of this fault tolerance in quantum air correction, right? Quantum air correction is detecting a fault that came from noise, predicting how it’s propagated through the system and then correcting it, right, so it’s a cybernetic loop. And it turns out that decoders that are hierarchical and in each level, the hierarchy are local-
Guillaume Verdon
… that are hierarchical. And at each level, the hierarchy are local, perform the best by far, and are far more fault-tolerant. The reason is, if you have a non-local decoder, then you have one fault at this control node and the whole system crashes. Similarly to if you have one CEO that everybody reports to and that CEO goes on vacation, the whole company comes to a crawl. To me, I think that yes, we’re seeing a tendency towards centralization of AI, but I think there’s going to be a correction over time, where intelligence is going to go closer to the perception. And we’re going to break up AI into smaller subsystems that communicate with one another and form a meta system.
… that are hierarchical. And at each level, the hierarchy are local, perform the best by far, and are far more fault-tolerant. The reason is, if you have a non-local decoder, then you have one fault at this control node and the whole system crashes. Similarly to if you have one CEO that everybody reports to and that CEO goes on vacation, the whole company comes to a crawl. To me, I think that yes, we’re seeing a tendency towards centralization of AI, but I think there’s going to be a correction over time, where intelligence is going to go closer to the perception. And we’re going to break up AI into smaller subsystems that communicate with one another and form a meta system.
Lex Fridman
If you look at the hierarchies that are in the world today, there’s nations and those all hierarchical. But in relation to each other, nations are anarchic, so it’s an anarchy.
If you look at the hierarchies that are in the world today, there’s nations and those all hierarchical. But in relation to each other, nations are anarchic, so it’s an anarchy.
Guillaume Verdon
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
Do you foresee a world like this, where there’s not a over… What’d you call it? A centralized cybernetic control?
Do you foresee a world like this, where there’s not a over… What’d you call it? A centralized cybernetic control?
Guillaume Verdon
Centralized locus of control. Yeah.
Centralized locus of control. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s suboptimal, you’re saying?
That’s suboptimal, you’re saying?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So, it would be always a state of competition at the very top level?
So, it would be always a state of competition at the very top level?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. Yeah. Just like in a company, you may have two units working on similar technology and competing with one another, and you prune the one that performs not as well. That’s a selection process for a tree, or a product gets killed and then a whole org gets fired. This process of trying new things and shedding old things that didn’t work, it’s what gives us adaptability and helps us converge on the technologies and things to do that are most good.
Yeah. Yeah. Just like in a company, you may have two units working on similar technology and competing with one another, and you prune the one that performs not as well. That’s a selection process for a tree, or a product gets killed and then a whole org gets fired. This process of trying new things and shedding old things that didn’t work, it’s what gives us adaptability and helps us converge on the technologies and things to do that are most good.
Lex Fridman
I just hope there’s not a failure mode that’s unique to AGI versus humans, because you’re describing human systems mostly right now.
I just hope there’s not a failure mode that’s unique to AGI versus humans, because you’re describing human systems mostly right now.
Guillaume Verdon
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
I just hope when there’s a monopoly on AGI in one company, that we’ll see the same thing we see with humans, which is, another company will spring up and start competing effectively.
I just hope when there’s a monopoly on AGI in one company, that we’ll see the same thing we see with humans, which is, another company will spring up and start competing effectively.
Guillaume Verdon
That’s been the case so far. We have OpenAI. We have Anthropic. Now, we have xAI. We have Meta even for open source, and now we have Mistral, which is highly competitive. That’s the beauty of capitalism. You don’t have to trust any one party too much because we’re always hedging our bets at every level. There’s always competition and that’s the most beautiful thing to me, at least, is that the whole system is always shifting and always adapting.
That’s been the case so far. We have OpenAI. We have Anthropic. Now, we have xAI. We have Meta even for open source, and now we have Mistral, which is highly competitive. That’s the beauty of capitalism. You don’t have to trust any one party too much because we’re always hedging our bets at every level. There’s always competition and that’s the most beautiful thing to me, at least, is that the whole system is always shifting and always adapting.
Maintaining that dynamism is how we avoid tyranny. Making sure that everyone has access to these tools, to these models, and can contribute to the research, avoids a neural tyranny where very few people have control over AI for the world and use it to oppress those around them.
Quantum machine learning
Lex Fridman
When you were talking about intelligence, you mentioned multipartite quantum entanglement.
When you were talking about intelligence, you mentioned multipartite quantum entanglement.
Guillaume Verdon
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
High-level question first is, what do you think is intelligence? When you think about quantum mechanical systems and you observe some kind of computation happening in them, what do you think is intelligent about the kind of computation the universe is able to do; a small, small inkling of which is the kind of computation a human brain is able to do?
High-level question first is, what do you think is intelligence? When you think about quantum mechanical systems and you observe some kind of computation happening in them, what do you think is intelligent about the kind of computation the universe is able to do; a small, small inkling of which is the kind of computation a human brain is able to do?
Guillaume Verdon
I would say intelligence and computation aren’t quite the same thing. I think that the universe is very much doing a quantum computation. If you had access to all the degrees of freedom and a very, very, very large quantum computer with many, many, many qubits, let’s say, a few qubits per Planck volume, which is more or less the pixels we have, then you’d be able to simulate the whole universe on a sufficiently large quantum computer, assuming you’re looking at a finite volume, of course, of the universe. I think that at least to me, intelligence is, I go back to cybernetics, the ability to perceive, predict, and control our world.
I would say intelligence and computation aren’t quite the same thing. I think that the universe is very much doing a quantum computation. If you had access to all the degrees of freedom and a very, very, very large quantum computer with many, many, many qubits, let’s say, a few qubits per Planck volume, which is more or less the pixels we have, then you’d be able to simulate the whole universe on a sufficiently large quantum computer, assuming you’re looking at a finite volume, of course, of the universe. I think that at least to me, intelligence is, I go back to cybernetics, the ability to perceive, predict, and control our world.
But really, nowadays, it seems like a lot of intelligence we use is more about compression. It’s about operationalizing information theory. In information theory, you have the notion of entropy of a distribution or a system, and entropy tells you that you need this many bits to encode this distribution or this subsystem, if you have the most optimal code. AI, at least the way we do it today for LLMs and for quantum, is very much trying to minimize relative entropy between our models of the world and the world, distributions from the world. We’re learning, we’re searching over the space of computations to process the world, to find that compressed representation that has distilled all the variance in noise and entropy.
Originally, I came to quantum machine learning from the study of black holes because the entropy of black holes is very interesting. In a sense, they’re physically the most dense objects in the universe. You can’t pack more information spatially any more densely than in a black hole. And so, I was wondering, how do black holes actually encode information? What is their compression code? That got me into the space of algorithms, to search over space of quantum codes. It got me actually into also, how do you acquire quantum information from the world? Something I’ve worked on, this is public now, is quantum analog digital conversion.
How do you capture information from the real world in superposition and not destroy the superposition, but digitize for a quantum mechanical computer information from the real world? If you have an ability to capture quantum information and learn representation representations of it, now you can learn compressed representations that may have some useful information in their latent representation. I think that many of the problems facing our civilization are actually beyond this complexity barrier. The greenhouse effect is a quantum mechanical effect. Chemistry is quantum mechanical. Nuclear physics is quantum mechanical.
A lot of biology and protein folding and so on is affected by quantum mechanics. And so, unlocking an ability to augment human intellect with quantum mechanical computers and quantum mechanical AI seemed to me like a fundamental capability for civilization that we needed to develop. I spent several years doing that, but over time, I grew weary of the timelines that were starting to look like nuclear fusion.
Lex Fridman
One high-level question I can ask is maybe by way of definition, by way of explanation, what is a quantum computer and what is quantum machine learning?
One high-level question I can ask is maybe by way of definition, by way of explanation, what is a quantum computer and what is quantum machine learning?
Guillaume Verdon
A quantum computer really is a quantum mechanical system, over which we have sufficient control, and it can maintain its quantum mechanical state. And quantum mechanics is how nature behaves at the very small scales, when things are very small or very cold, and it’s actually more fundamental than probability theory. We’re used to things being this or that, but we’re not used to thinking in superpositions because, well, our brains can’t do that. So, we have to translate the quantum mechanical world to, say, linear algebra to grok it. Unfortunately, that translation is exponentially inefficient on average. You have to represent things with very large matrices. But really, you can make a quantum computer out of many things, and we’ve seen all sorts of players, from neutral atoms, trapped ions, superconducting metal photons at different frequencies.
A quantum computer really is a quantum mechanical system, over which we have sufficient control, and it can maintain its quantum mechanical state. And quantum mechanics is how nature behaves at the very small scales, when things are very small or very cold, and it’s actually more fundamental than probability theory. We’re used to things being this or that, but we’re not used to thinking in superpositions because, well, our brains can’t do that. So, we have to translate the quantum mechanical world to, say, linear algebra to grok it. Unfortunately, that translation is exponentially inefficient on average. You have to represent things with very large matrices. But really, you can make a quantum computer out of many things, and we’ve seen all sorts of players, from neutral atoms, trapped ions, superconducting metal photons at different frequencies.
I think you could make a quantum computer out of many things. But to me, the thing that was really interesting was both quantum machine learning was about understanding the quantum mechanical world with quantum computers, so embedding the physical world into AI representations, and quantum computer engineering was embedding AI algorithms into the physical world. This bi-directionality of embedding physical world into AI, AI into the physical world, this symbiosis between physics and AI, really that’s the core of my quest really, even to this day, after quantum computing. It’s still in this journey to merge really physics and AI.
Lex Fridman
Quantum machine learning is a way to do machine learning on a representation of nature that stays true to the quantum mechanical aspect of nature?
Quantum machine learning is a way to do machine learning on a representation of nature that stays true to the quantum mechanical aspect of nature?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, it’s learning quantum mechanical representations. That would be quantum deep learning. Alternatively, you can try to do classical machine learning on a quantum computer. I wouldn’t advise it because you may have some speed-ups, but very often, the speed-ups come with huge costs. Using a quantum computer is very expensive.
Yeah, it’s learning quantum mechanical representations. That would be quantum deep learning. Alternatively, you can try to do classical machine learning on a quantum computer. I wouldn’t advise it because you may have some speed-ups, but very often, the speed-ups come with huge costs. Using a quantum computer is very expensive.
Why is that? Because you assume the computer is operating at zero temperature, which no physical system in the universe can achieve that temperature. What you have to do is what I’ve been mentioning, this quantum error correction process, which is really an algorithmic fridge. It’s trying to pump entropy out of the system, trying to get it closer to zero temperature. When you do the calculations of how many resources it would take to, say, do deep learning on a quantum computer, classical deep learning, there’s such a huge overhead, it’s not worth it. It’s like thinking about shipping something across a city using a rocket and going to orbit and back. It doesn’t make sense. Just use a delivery truck.
Lex Fridman
What kind of stuff can you figure out, can you predict, can you understand with quantum deep learning that you can’t with deep learning? So, incorporating quantum mechanical systems into the learning process?
What kind of stuff can you figure out, can you predict, can you understand with quantum deep learning that you can’t with deep learning? So, incorporating quantum mechanical systems into the learning process?
Guillaume Verdon
I think that’s a great question. Fundamentally, it’s any system that has sufficient quantum mechanical correlations that are very hard to capture for classical representations. Then, there should be an advantage for a quantum mechanical representation over a purely classical one. The question is, which systems have sufficient correlations that are very quantum? But it’s also, which systems are still relevant to industry? That’s a big question. People are leaning towards chemistry, nuclear physics. I’ve worked on actually processing inputs from quantum sensors. If you have a network of quantum sensors, they’ve captured a quantum mechanical image of the world and how to post-process that, that becomes a quantum form of machine perception. For example, Fermilab has a project exploring detecting dark matter with these quantum sensors. To me, that’s in alignment with my quest to understand the universe ever since I was a child. And so, someday, I hope that we can have very large networks of quantum sensors that help us peer into the earliest parts of the universe. For example, the LIGO is a quantum sensor. It’s just a very large one. So, yeah, I would say quantum machine perception, simulations, grokking quantum simulations, similar to AlphaFold. AlphaFold understood the probability distribution over configurations of proteins. You can understand quantum distributions over configurations of electrons more efficiently with quantum machine learning.
I think that’s a great question. Fundamentally, it’s any system that has sufficient quantum mechanical correlations that are very hard to capture for classical representations. Then, there should be an advantage for a quantum mechanical representation over a purely classical one. The question is, which systems have sufficient correlations that are very quantum? But it’s also, which systems are still relevant to industry? That’s a big question. People are leaning towards chemistry, nuclear physics. I’ve worked on actually processing inputs from quantum sensors. If you have a network of quantum sensors, they’ve captured a quantum mechanical image of the world and how to post-process that, that becomes a quantum form of machine perception. For example, Fermilab has a project exploring detecting dark matter with these quantum sensors. To me, that’s in alignment with my quest to understand the universe ever since I was a child. And so, someday, I hope that we can have very large networks of quantum sensors that help us peer into the earliest parts of the universe. For example, the LIGO is a quantum sensor. It’s just a very large one. So, yeah, I would say quantum machine perception, simulations, grokking quantum simulations, similar to AlphaFold. AlphaFold understood the probability distribution over configurations of proteins. You can understand quantum distributions over configurations of electrons more efficiently with quantum machine learning.
Lex Fridman
You co-authored a paper titled A Universal Training Algorithm for Quantum Deep Learning. That involves Baqprop, with a Q. Very well done, sir. Very well done. How does it work? Is there some interesting aspects you can just mention on how Baqprop and some of these things we know for classical machine learning transfer over to the quantum machine learning?
You co-authored a paper titled A Universal Training Algorithm for Quantum Deep Learning. That involves Baqprop, with a Q. Very well done, sir. Very well done. How does it work? Is there some interesting aspects you can just mention on how Baqprop and some of these things we know for classical machine learning transfer over to the quantum machine learning?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. That was a funky paper. That was one of my first papers in quantum deep learning. Everybody was saying, “Oh, I think deep learning is going to be sped up by quantum computers.” I was like, ” Well, the best way to predict the future is to invent it. So, here’s a 100-page paper, have fun.” Essentially, quantum computing is usually, you embed reversible operations into a quantum computation.
Yeah. That was a funky paper. That was one of my first papers in quantum deep learning. Everybody was saying, “Oh, I think deep learning is going to be sped up by quantum computers.” I was like, ” Well, the best way to predict the future is to invent it. So, here’s a 100-page paper, have fun.” Essentially, quantum computing is usually, you embed reversible operations into a quantum computation.
The trick there was to do a feedforward operation and do what we call a phase kick. But really, it’s just a force kick. You just kick the system with a certain force that is proportional to your loss function that you wish to optimize. And then, by performing uncomputation, you start with a superposition over parameters, which is pretty funky. Now, you don’t have just a point for parameters, you have a superposition over many potential parameters. Our goal is-
Lex Fridman
Is using phase kick somehow to adjust the parameters?
Is using phase kick somehow to adjust the parameters?
Guillaume Verdon
Right. Because phase kicks emulate having the parameter space be like a particle in end dimensions, and you’re trying to get the Schrödinger equation, Schrödinger dynamics, in the lost landscape of the neural network. You do an algorithm to induce this phase kick, which involves a feedforward, a kick. And then, when you uncompute the feedforward, then all the errors in these phase kicks and these forces back- propagate and hit each one of the parameters throughout the layers.
Right. Because phase kicks emulate having the parameter space be like a particle in end dimensions, and you’re trying to get the Schrödinger equation, Schrödinger dynamics, in the lost landscape of the neural network. You do an algorithm to induce this phase kick, which involves a feedforward, a kick. And then, when you uncompute the feedforward, then all the errors in these phase kicks and these forces back- propagate and hit each one of the parameters throughout the layers.
If you alternate this with an emulation of kinetic energy, then it’s like a particle moving in end dimensions, a quantum particle. The advantage in principle would be that it can tunnel through the landscape and find new optima that would’ve been difficult for stochastic optimizers. But again, this is a theoretical thing, and in practice with at least the current architectures for quantum computers that we have planned, such algorithms would be extremely expensive to run.
Quantum computer
Lex Fridman
Maybe this is a good place to ask the difference between the different fields that you’ve had a toe in. So, mathematics, physics, engineering, and also entrepreneurship, the different layers of the stack. I think a lot of the stuff you’re talking about here is a little bit on the math side, maybe physics almost working in theory.
Maybe this is a good place to ask the difference between the different fields that you’ve had a toe in. So, mathematics, physics, engineering, and also entrepreneurship, the different layers of the stack. I think a lot of the stuff you’re talking about here is a little bit on the math side, maybe physics almost working in theory.
Guillaume Verdon
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
What’s the difference between math, physics, engineering, and making a product for a quantum computing for quantum machine learning?
What’s the difference between math, physics, engineering, and making a product for a quantum computing for quantum machine learning?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. Some of the original team for the TensorFlow Quantum project, which we started in school, at University of Waterloo, there was myself. Initially, I was a physicist, applied mathematician. We had a computer scientist, we had a mechanical engineer, and then we had a physicist. That was experimental primarily. Putting together teams that are very cross-disciplinary and figuring out how to communicate and share knowledge is really the key to doing this interdisciplinary engineering work.
Yeah. Some of the original team for the TensorFlow Quantum project, which we started in school, at University of Waterloo, there was myself. Initially, I was a physicist, applied mathematician. We had a computer scientist, we had a mechanical engineer, and then we had a physicist. That was experimental primarily. Putting together teams that are very cross-disciplinary and figuring out how to communicate and share knowledge is really the key to doing this interdisciplinary engineering work.
There is a big difference. In mathematics, you can explore mathematics for mathematics’ sake. In physics, you’re applying mathematics to understand the world around us. And in engineering, you’re trying to hack the world. You’re trying to find how to apply the physics that I know, my knowledge of the world, to do things.
Lex Fridman
Well, in quantum computing in particular, I think there’s just a lot of limits to engineering. It just seems to be extremely hard.
Well, in quantum computing in particular, I think there’s just a lot of limits to engineering. It just seems to be extremely hard.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So, there’s a lot of value to be exploring quantum computing, quantum machine learning in theory with math. I guess one question is, why is it so hard to build a quantum computer? What’s your view of timelines in bringing these ideas to life?
So, there’s a lot of value to be exploring quantum computing, quantum machine learning in theory with math. I guess one question is, why is it so hard to build a quantum computer? What’s your view of timelines in bringing these ideas to life?
Guillaume Verdon
Right. I think that an overall theme of my company is that we have folks that are… There’s a sort of exodus from quantum computing and we’re going to broader physics-based AI that is not quantum. So, that gives you a hint.
Right. I think that an overall theme of my company is that we have folks that are… There’s a sort of exodus from quantum computing and we’re going to broader physics-based AI that is not quantum. So, that gives you a hint.
Lex Fridman
We should say the name of your company is Extropic?
We should say the name of your company is Extropic?
Guillaume Verdon
Extropic, that’s right. We do physics-based AI, primarily based on thermodynamics, rather than quantum mechanics. But essentially, a quantum computer is very difficult to build because you have to induce this zero temperature subspace of information. The way to do that is by encoding information, you encode a code within a code, within a code, within a code. There’s a lot of redundancy needed to do this error correction, but ultimately, it’s a sort of algorithmic refrigerator, really. It’s just pumping out entropy out of the subsystem that is virtual and delocalized that represents your “logical qubits”, aka the payload quantum bits in which you actually want to run your quantum mechanical program. It’s very difficult because in order to scale up your quantum computer, you need each component to be of sufficient quality for it to be worth it. Because if you try to do this error correction, this quantum error correction process, in each quantum bit and your control over them, if it’s insufficient, it’s not worth scaling up. You’re actually adding more errors than you remove. There’s this notion of a threshold where if your quantum bits are sufficient quality in terms of your control over them, it’s actually worth scaling up. Actually, in recent years, people have been crossing the threshold and it’s starting to be worth it.
Extropic, that’s right. We do physics-based AI, primarily based on thermodynamics, rather than quantum mechanics. But essentially, a quantum computer is very difficult to build because you have to induce this zero temperature subspace of information. The way to do that is by encoding information, you encode a code within a code, within a code, within a code. There’s a lot of redundancy needed to do this error correction, but ultimately, it’s a sort of algorithmic refrigerator, really. It’s just pumping out entropy out of the subsystem that is virtual and delocalized that represents your “logical qubits”, aka the payload quantum bits in which you actually want to run your quantum mechanical program. It’s very difficult because in order to scale up your quantum computer, you need each component to be of sufficient quality for it to be worth it. Because if you try to do this error correction, this quantum error correction process, in each quantum bit and your control over them, if it’s insufficient, it’s not worth scaling up. You’re actually adding more errors than you remove. There’s this notion of a threshold where if your quantum bits are sufficient quality in terms of your control over them, it’s actually worth scaling up. Actually, in recent years, people have been crossing the threshold and it’s starting to be worth it.
It’s just a very long slog of engineering, but ultimately, it’s really crazy to me how much exquisite level of control we have over these systems. It’s actually quite crazy. And people are crossing… They’re achieving milestones. It’s just in general, the media always gets ahead of where the technology is. There’s a bit too much hype. It’s good for fundraising, but sometimes it causes winters. It’s the hype cycle. I’m bullish on quantum computing on a 10, 15-year timescale personally, but I think there’s other quests that can be done in the meantime. I think it’s in good hands right now.
Lex Fridman
Well, let me just explore different beautiful ideas, large or small, in quantum computing that might jump out at you from memory when you co-authored a paper titled Asymptotically Limitless Quantum Energy Teleportation via Qudit Probes. Just out of curiosity, can you explain what a qudit is versus a qubit?
Well, let me just explore different beautiful ideas, large or small, in quantum computing that might jump out at you from memory when you co-authored a paper titled Asymptotically Limitless Quantum Energy Teleportation via Qudit Probes. Just out of curiosity, can you explain what a qudit is versus a qubit?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. It’s a D-state qubit.
Yeah. It’s a D-state qubit.
Lex Fridman
It’s a multidimensional?
It’s a multidimensional?
Guillaume Verdon
Multidimensional, right. It’s like, well, can you have a notion of an integer floating point that is quantum mechanical? That’s something I’ve had to think about. I think that research was a precursor to later work on quantum analog digital conversion. There was interesting because during my masters, I was trying to understand the energy and entanglement of the vacuum of emptiness. Emptiness has energy, which is very weird to say. Our equations of cosmology don’t match our calculations for the amount of quantum energy there is in the fluctuations.
Multidimensional, right. It’s like, well, can you have a notion of an integer floating point that is quantum mechanical? That’s something I’ve had to think about. I think that research was a precursor to later work on quantum analog digital conversion. There was interesting because during my masters, I was trying to understand the energy and entanglement of the vacuum of emptiness. Emptiness has energy, which is very weird to say. Our equations of cosmology don’t match our calculations for the amount of quantum energy there is in the fluctuations.
I was trying to hack the energy of the vacuum, and the reality is that you can’t just directly hack it. It’s not technically free energy. Your lack of knowledge of the fluctuations means you can’t extract the energy. But just like the stock market, if you have a stock that’s correlated over time, the vacuum’s actually correlated. If you measured the vacuum at one point, you acquired information. If you communicated that information to another point, you can infer what configuration the vacuum is in to some precision and statistically extract, on average, some energy there. So, you’ve “teleported energy”.
To me, that was interesting because you could create pockets of negative-energy density, which is energy density that is below the vacuum, which is very weird because we don’t understand how the vacuum gravitates. There are theories where the vacuum or the canvas of space-time itself is really a canvas made out of quantum entanglement. I was studying how decreasing energy of vacuum locally increases quantum entanglement, which is very funky.
The thing there is that, if you’re into to weird theories about UAPs and whatnot, you could try to imagine that they’re around. And how would they propel themselves? How would they go faster than the speed of light? You would need a sort of negative energy density. To me, I gave it the old college try, trying to hack the energy of vacuum and hit the limits allowable by the laws of physics. But there’s all sorts of caveats there where you can’t extract more than you’ve put in, obviously.
Lex Fridman
But you’re saying it’s possible to teleport the energy because you can extract information one place and then make, based on that, some kind of prediction about another place?
But you’re saying it’s possible to teleport the energy because you can extract information one place and then make, based on that, some kind of prediction about another place?
Guillaume Verdon
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
I’m not sure what to make of that.
I’m not sure what to make of that.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, it’s allowable by the laws of physics. The reality though is that the correlations decay with distance.
Yeah, it’s allowable by the laws of physics. The reality though is that the correlations decay with distance.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Guillaume Verdon
And so, you’re going to have to pay the price not too far away from where you extract it.
And so, you’re going to have to pay the price not too far away from where you extract it.
Aliens
Lex Fridman
The precision decreases in terms of your ability, but still. But since you mentioned UAPs, we talked about intelligence, and I forgot to ask, what’s your view on the other possible intelligences that are out there at the Meso scale? Do you think there’s other intelligent alien civilizations? Is that useful to think about? How often do you think about it?
The precision decreases in terms of your ability, but still. But since you mentioned UAPs, we talked about intelligence, and I forgot to ask, what’s your view on the other possible intelligences that are out there at the Meso scale? Do you think there’s other intelligent alien civilizations? Is that useful to think about? How often do you think about it?
Guillaume Verdon
I think it’s useful to think about. It’s useful to think about because we got to ensure we’re anti-fragile, and we’re trying to increase our capabilities as fast as possible. Because we could get disrupted. There’s no laws of physics against there being life elsewhere that could evolve and become an advanced civilization and eventually come to us. Do I think they’re here now? I’m not sure. I’ve read what most people have read on the topic.
I think it’s useful to think about. It’s useful to think about because we got to ensure we’re anti-fragile, and we’re trying to increase our capabilities as fast as possible. Because we could get disrupted. There’s no laws of physics against there being life elsewhere that could evolve and become an advanced civilization and eventually come to us. Do I think they’re here now? I’m not sure. I’ve read what most people have read on the topic.
I think it’s interesting to consider and to me, it’s a useful thought experiment to instill a sense of urgency in developing technologies and increasing our capabilities, to make sure we don’t get disrupted. Whether it’s a form of AI that disrupts us, or a foreign intelligence from a different planet. Either way, increasing our capabilities and becoming formidable as humans, I think that’s really important, so that we’re robust against whatever the universe throws at us.
Lex Fridman
But to me, it’s also an interesting challenge and thought experiment on how to perceive intelligence. This has to do with quantum mechanical systems. This has to do with any kind of system that’s not like humans. To me, the thought experiment is, say, the aliens are here or they are directly observable. We’re just too blind, too self-centered, don’t have the right sensors, or don’t have the right processing of the sensor data to see the obvious intelligence that’s all around us.
But to me, it’s also an interesting challenge and thought experiment on how to perceive intelligence. This has to do with quantum mechanical systems. This has to do with any kind of system that’s not like humans. To me, the thought experiment is, say, the aliens are here or they are directly observable. We’re just too blind, too self-centered, don’t have the right sensors, or don’t have the right processing of the sensor data to see the obvious intelligence that’s all around us.
Guillaume Verdon
Well, that’s why we work on quantum sensors. They can sense gravity,
Well, that’s why we work on quantum sensors. They can sense gravity,
Lex Fridman
Yeah. That’s a good one, but there could be other stuff that’s not even in the currently known forces of physics.
Yeah. That’s a good one, but there could be other stuff that’s not even in the currently known forces of physics.
Guillaume Verdon
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
There could be some other stuff. The most entertaining thought experiment to me is that it’s other stuff that’s obvious. It’s not like we lack the sensors. It’s all around us, the consciousness being one possible one. But there could be stuff that’s just obviously there. That once you know it, it’s like, “Oh, right. Right. The thing we thought is somehow emergent from the laws of physics, we understand them, is actually a fundamental part of the universe and can be incorporated in physics. Most understood.”
There could be some other stuff. The most entertaining thought experiment to me is that it’s other stuff that’s obvious. It’s not like we lack the sensors. It’s all around us, the consciousness being one possible one. But there could be stuff that’s just obviously there. That once you know it, it’s like, “Oh, right. Right. The thing we thought is somehow emergent from the laws of physics, we understand them, is actually a fundamental part of the universe and can be incorporated in physics. Most understood.”
Guillaume Verdon
Statistically speaking, if we observed some sort of alien life, it would most likely be some sort of virally, self-replicating, von Neumann-like probe system. And it’s possible that there are such systems that, I don’t know what they’re doing at the bottom of the ocean, allegedly, but maybe they’re collecting minerals from the bottom of the ocean.
Statistically speaking, if we observed some sort of alien life, it would most likely be some sort of virally, self-replicating, von Neumann-like probe system. And it’s possible that there are such systems that, I don’t know what they’re doing at the bottom of the ocean, allegedly, but maybe they’re collecting minerals from the bottom of the ocean.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Guillaume Verdon
But that wouldn’t violate any of my priors. But am I certain that these systems are here? It’d be difficult for me to say so. I only have secondhand information about there being data.
But that wouldn’t violate any of my priors. But am I certain that these systems are here? It’d be difficult for me to say so. I only have secondhand information about there being data.
Lex Fridman
About the bottom of the ocean? Yeah. But could it be things like memes? Could it be thoughts and ideas? Could they be operating at that medium? Could aliens be the very thoughts that come into my head? What’s the origin of ideas? In your mind, when an idea comes to your head, show me where it originates.
About the bottom of the ocean? Yeah. But could it be things like memes? Could it be thoughts and ideas? Could they be operating at that medium? Could aliens be the very thoughts that come into my head? What’s the origin of ideas? In your mind, when an idea comes to your head, show me where it originates.
Guillaume Verdon
Frankly, when I had the idea for the type of computer I’m building now, I think it was eight years ago now, it really felt like it was being beamed from space. I was in bed, just shaking, just thinking it through. I don’t know. But do I believe that legitimately? I don’t think so. But I think that alien life could take many forms, and I think the notion of intelligence and the notion of life needs to be expanded much more broadly to be less anthropocentric or biocentric.
Frankly, when I had the idea for the type of computer I’m building now, I think it was eight years ago now, it really felt like it was being beamed from space. I was in bed, just shaking, just thinking it through. I don’t know. But do I believe that legitimately? I don’t think so. But I think that alien life could take many forms, and I think the notion of intelligence and the notion of life needs to be expanded much more broadly to be less anthropocentric or biocentric.
Quantum gravity
Lex Fridman
Just to linger a little longer on quantum mechanics, through all your explorations on quantum computing, what’s the coolest, most beautiful idea that you’ve come across that has been solved or has not yet been solved?
Just to linger a little longer on quantum mechanics, through all your explorations on quantum computing, what’s the coolest, most beautiful idea that you’ve come across that has been solved or has not yet been solved?
Guillaume Verdon
I think the journey to understand something called AdS/CFT. So, the journey to understand quantum gravity through this picture, where a hologram of lesser dimension is actually dual or exactly corresponding to a bulk theory of quantum gravity of an extra dimension, and the fact that this sort of duality comes from trying to learn deep learning-like representations of the boundary.
I think the journey to understand something called AdS/CFT. So, the journey to understand quantum gravity through this picture, where a hologram of lesser dimension is actually dual or exactly corresponding to a bulk theory of quantum gravity of an extra dimension, and the fact that this sort of duality comes from trying to learn deep learning-like representations of the boundary.
At least, part of my journey someday on my bucket list is to apply quantum machine learning to these sorts of systems, these CFTs, or they’re called SYK models, and learn an emergent geometry from the boundary theory. And so, we can have a form of machine learning to help us understand quantum gravity, which is still a holy grail that I would like to hit before I leave this earth.
Lex Fridman
What do you think is going on with black holes? As information-storing and processing units, what do you think is going on with black holes?
What do you think is going on with black holes? As information-storing and processing units, what do you think is going on with black holes?
Guillaume Verdon
Black holes are really fascinating objects. They’re at the interphase between quantum mechanics and gravity, and so they help us test all sorts of ideas. I think that for many decades now, there’s been this black hole information paradox that things that fall into the black hole, we’ve seem to have lost their information. Now, I think there’s this firewall paradox that has been allegedly resolved in recent years by a former peer of mine, who’s now a professor at Berkeley. There, it seems like, as information falls into a black hole, there’s a sedimentation. As you get closer and closer to the horizon from the point of view, the observer on the outside, the object slows down infinitely as it gets closer and closer.
Black holes are really fascinating objects. They’re at the interphase between quantum mechanics and gravity, and so they help us test all sorts of ideas. I think that for many decades now, there’s been this black hole information paradox that things that fall into the black hole, we’ve seem to have lost their information. Now, I think there’s this firewall paradox that has been allegedly resolved in recent years by a former peer of mine, who’s now a professor at Berkeley. There, it seems like, as information falls into a black hole, there’s a sedimentation. As you get closer and closer to the horizon from the point of view, the observer on the outside, the object slows down infinitely as it gets closer and closer.
Everything that is falling to a black hole, from our perspective, gets sedimented and tacked on to the near horizon. At some point, it gets so close to the horizon, it’s in the proximity or the scale in which quantum effects and quantum fluctuations matter. There, that infalling matter could interfere with the traditional pictures, that it could interfere with the creation and annihilation of particles and antiparticles in the vacuum. Through this interference, one of the particles gets entangled with the infalling information and one of them is now free and escapes. That’s how there’s mutual information between the outgoing radiation and the infalling matter. But getting that calculation right, I think we’re only just starting to put the pieces together.
Lex Fridman
There’s a few pothead-like questions I want to ask you.
There’s a few pothead-like questions I want to ask you.
Guillaume Verdon
Sure.
Sure.
Lex Fridman
One, does it terrify you that there’s a giant black hole at the center of our galaxy?
One, does it terrify you that there’s a giant black hole at the center of our galaxy?
Guillaume Verdon
I don’t know. I just want to set up shop near it to fast-forward, meet a future civilization, if we have a limited lifetime, if you could go orbit a black hole and emerge.
I don’t know. I just want to set up shop near it to fast-forward, meet a future civilization, if we have a limited lifetime, if you could go orbit a black hole and emerge.
Lex Fridman
If there’s a special mission that could take you to a black hole, would you volunteer to go travel?
If there’s a special mission that could take you to a black hole, would you volunteer to go travel?
Guillaume Verdon
To orbit and obviously not fall into it.
To orbit and obviously not fall into it.
Lex Fridman
That’s obvious. It’s obvious to you that everything’s destroyed inside a black hole? All the information that makes up Guillaume is destroyed? Maybe on the other side, Beff Jezos emerges and it’s just all like it’s tied together in some deeply memeful way.
That’s obvious. It’s obvious to you that everything’s destroyed inside a black hole? All the information that makes up Guillaume is destroyed? Maybe on the other side, Beff Jezos emerges and it’s just all like it’s tied together in some deeply memeful way.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, that’s a great question. We have to answer what black holes are. Are we punching a hole through space-time and creating a pocket universe? It’s possible. Then, that would mean that if we ascend the Kardashev scale to beyond Kardashev Type III, we could engineer black holes with specific hyperparameters to transmit information to new universes we create. And so, we can have progeny that our new…
Yeah, that’s a great question. We have to answer what black holes are. Are we punching a hole through space-time and creating a pocket universe? It’s possible. Then, that would mean that if we ascend the Kardashev scale to beyond Kardashev Type III, we could engineer black holes with specific hyperparameters to transmit information to new universes we create. And so, we can have progeny that our new…
Guillaume Verdon
… have progeny that are new universes. And so even though our universe may reach a heat death, we may have a way to have a legacy. And so we don’t know yet. We need to ascend the Kardashev Scale to answer these questions to peer into that regime of higher energy physics.
… have progeny that are new universes. And so even though our universe may reach a heat death, we may have a way to have a legacy. And so we don’t know yet. We need to ascend the Kardashev Scale to answer these questions to peer into that regime of higher energy physics.
Kardashev scale
Lex Fridman
And maybe you can speak to the Kardashev Scale for people who don’t know. So one of the sort of meme-like principles and goals of the e/acc movement is to ascend the Kardashev Scale. What is the Kardashev Scale and when do we want to ascend it?
And maybe you can speak to the Kardashev Scale for people who don’t know. So one of the sort of meme-like principles and goals of the e/acc movement is to ascend the Kardashev Scale. What is the Kardashev Scale and when do we want to ascend it?
Guillaume Verdon
The Kardashev Scale is a measure of our energy production and consumption. Really, it’s a logarithmic scale. Kardashev Type 1 is a milestone where we are producing the equivalent wattage to all the energy that is incident on earth from the sun. Kardashev Type II would be harnessing all the energy that is output by the sun. And I think Type III is like the whole galaxy equivalent-
The Kardashev Scale is a measure of our energy production and consumption. Really, it’s a logarithmic scale. Kardashev Type 1 is a milestone where we are producing the equivalent wattage to all the energy that is incident on earth from the sun. Kardashev Type II would be harnessing all the energy that is output by the sun. And I think Type III is like the whole galaxy equivalent-
Lex Fridman
Galaxy, I think [inaudible 01:46:14] yeah.
Galaxy, I think [inaudible 01:46:14] yeah.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, and then some people have some crazy Type IV and V, but I don’t know if I believe in those. But to me, it seems like from the first principles of thermodynamics that, again, there’s this concept of thermodynamic- driven dissipative adaptation where life evolved on earth because we have this energetic drive from the sun, we have incident energy, and life evolved on earth to figure out ways to best capture that free energy to maintain itself and grow. And I think that that principle, it’s not special to our earth-sun system. We can extend life well beyond. And we kind of have a responsibility to do so because that’s the process that brought us here. So we don’t even know what it has its store for us in the future. It could be something of beauty we can’t even imagine today.
Yeah, and then some people have some crazy Type IV and V, but I don’t know if I believe in those. But to me, it seems like from the first principles of thermodynamics that, again, there’s this concept of thermodynamic- driven dissipative adaptation where life evolved on earth because we have this energetic drive from the sun, we have incident energy, and life evolved on earth to figure out ways to best capture that free energy to maintain itself and grow. And I think that that principle, it’s not special to our earth-sun system. We can extend life well beyond. And we kind of have a responsibility to do so because that’s the process that brought us here. So we don’t even know what it has its store for us in the future. It could be something of beauty we can’t even imagine today.
Effective accelerationism (e/acc)
Lex Fridman
So this is probably a good place to talk a bit about the e/acc movement in a Substack blog post titled, What the Fuck is e/acc? Or actually, What the F* is e/acc?, you write, “Strategically speaking, we need to work towards several overarching civilization goals that are all interdependent. And the four goals are, increase the amount of energy we can harness as a species, (climb the Kardashev gradient). In the short term, this almost certainly means nuclear fission. Increase human flourishing via pro-population growth policies and pro-economic growth policies. Create artificial general intelligence, the single greatest force multiplier in human history. And finally, develop interplanetary and interstellar transport so that humanity can spread beyond the earth. Could you build on top of that to maybe say, what to you is the e/acc movement? What are the goals? What are the principles?
So this is probably a good place to talk a bit about the e/acc movement in a Substack blog post titled, What the Fuck is e/acc? Or actually, What the F* is e/acc?, you write, “Strategically speaking, we need to work towards several overarching civilization goals that are all interdependent. And the four goals are, increase the amount of energy we can harness as a species, (climb the Kardashev gradient). In the short term, this almost certainly means nuclear fission. Increase human flourishing via pro-population growth policies and pro-economic growth policies. Create artificial general intelligence, the single greatest force multiplier in human history. And finally, develop interplanetary and interstellar transport so that humanity can spread beyond the earth. Could you build on top of that to maybe say, what to you is the e/acc movement? What are the goals? What are the principles?
Guillaume Verdon
The goal is for the human techno-capital memetic machine to become self-aware and to hyperstitiously engineer its own growth. So let’s decompress that.
The goal is for the human techno-capital memetic machine to become self-aware and to hyperstitiously engineer its own growth. So let’s decompress that.
Lex Fridman
Define each of those words.
Define each of those words.
Guillaume Verdon
So you have humans, you have technology, you have capital, and then you have memes, information, and all of those systems are coupled with one another. Humans work at companies, they acquire and allocate capital, and humans communicate via memes and information propagation. And our goal was to have a sort of viral optimistic movement that is aware of how the system works, fundamentally it seeks to grow, and we simply want to lean into the natural tendencies of the system to adapt for its own growth.
So you have humans, you have technology, you have capital, and then you have memes, information, and all of those systems are coupled with one another. Humans work at companies, they acquire and allocate capital, and humans communicate via memes and information propagation. And our goal was to have a sort of viral optimistic movement that is aware of how the system works, fundamentally it seeks to grow, and we simply want to lean into the natural tendencies of the system to adapt for its own growth.
Lex Fridman
So in that way, you’re right, the e/acc is literally a memetic optimism virus that is constantly drifting, mutating, and propagating in a decentralized fashion. So memetic optimism virus. So you do want it to be a virus to maximize the spread, and it’s hyperstitious, therefore the optimism will incentivize its growth.
So in that way, you’re right, the e/acc is literally a memetic optimism virus that is constantly drifting, mutating, and propagating in a decentralized fashion. So memetic optimism virus. So you do want it to be a virus to maximize the spread, and it’s hyperstitious, therefore the optimism will incentivize its growth.
Guillaume Verdon
We see e/acc as sort of a meta-heuristic, sort of very thin cultural framework from which you can have much more opinionated forks. Fundamentally, we just say that what got us here is this adaptation of the whole system based on thermodynamics, and that process is good and we should keep it going. That is the core thesis. Everything else is, okay, how do we ensure that we maintain this malleability and adaptability. Well, clearly not suppressing variants, and maintaining free speech, freedom of thought, freedom of information propagation, and freedom to do AI research is important for us to converge the fastest on the space of technologies, ideas, and whatnot that lead to this growth. And so ultimately, there’s been quite a few forks. Some are just memes, but some are more serious. Vitalik Buterin recently made a d/acc fork. He has his own sort of fine-tunings of e/acc.
We see e/acc as sort of a meta-heuristic, sort of very thin cultural framework from which you can have much more opinionated forks. Fundamentally, we just say that what got us here is this adaptation of the whole system based on thermodynamics, and that process is good and we should keep it going. That is the core thesis. Everything else is, okay, how do we ensure that we maintain this malleability and adaptability. Well, clearly not suppressing variants, and maintaining free speech, freedom of thought, freedom of information propagation, and freedom to do AI research is important for us to converge the fastest on the space of technologies, ideas, and whatnot that lead to this growth. And so ultimately, there’s been quite a few forks. Some are just memes, but some are more serious. Vitalik Buterin recently made a d/acc fork. He has his own sort of fine-tunings of e/acc.
Lex Fridman
Does anything jump out to memory of the unique characteristic of that fork from Vitalik?
Does anything jump out to memory of the unique characteristic of that fork from Vitalik?
Guillaume Verdon
I would say that it’s trying to find a middle ground between e/acc and EA and EI safety. To me, having a movement that is opposite to what was the mainstream narrative that was taking over Silicon Valley was important to shift the dynamic range of opinions. And it’s like the balance between centralization and decentralization, the real optimum is always somewhere in the middle. But for e/acc, we’re pushing for entropy, novelty, disruption, malleability, speed, rather than being conservative, suppressing thought, suppressing speech, adding constraints, adding too many regulations, slowing things down. And so, we’re trying to bring balance to the force.
I would say that it’s trying to find a middle ground between e/acc and EA and EI safety. To me, having a movement that is opposite to what was the mainstream narrative that was taking over Silicon Valley was important to shift the dynamic range of opinions. And it’s like the balance between centralization and decentralization, the real optimum is always somewhere in the middle. But for e/acc, we’re pushing for entropy, novelty, disruption, malleability, speed, rather than being conservative, suppressing thought, suppressing speech, adding constraints, adding too many regulations, slowing things down. And so, we’re trying to bring balance to the force.
Lex Fridman
Balance to the force of human civilization.
Balance to the force of human civilization.
Guillaume Verdon
It’s literally the forces of constraints versus the entropic force that makes us explore. Systems are optimal when they’re at the edge of criticality between order and chaos, between constraints, energy minimization and entropy. Systems want to equilibrate, balance these two things. I thought that the balance was lacking, and so we created this movement to bring balance.
It’s literally the forces of constraints versus the entropic force that makes us explore. Systems are optimal when they’re at the edge of criticality between order and chaos, between constraints, energy minimization and entropy. Systems want to equilibrate, balance these two things. I thought that the balance was lacking, and so we created this movement to bring balance.
Lex Fridman
Well, I like the visual of the landscape of ideas evolving through forks. So on the other part of history, thinking of Marxism as the original repository, and then Soviet Communism is a fork of that, and then the Maoism is a fork of Marxism and Communism. And so those are all forks. They’re exploring different ideas.
Well, I like the visual of the landscape of ideas evolving through forks. So on the other part of history, thinking of Marxism as the original repository, and then Soviet Communism is a fork of that, and then the Maoism is a fork of Marxism and Communism. And so those are all forks. They’re exploring different ideas.
Guillaume Verdon
Thinking of culture almost like code. Nowadays, what you prompt in the LLM or what you put in the constitution of an LLM is basically its cultural framework, what it believes. And you can share it on GitHub nowadays. So trying to take inspiration from what has worked in this machine of software to adapt over the space of code, could we apply that to culture? And our goal is to not say, “You should live your life this way, X, Y, Z,” it’s to set up a process where people are always searching over subcultures and competing for mind share. I think creating this malleability of culture is super important for us to converge onto the cultures and the heuristics about how to live one’s life that are updated to modern times.
Thinking of culture almost like code. Nowadays, what you prompt in the LLM or what you put in the constitution of an LLM is basically its cultural framework, what it believes. And you can share it on GitHub nowadays. So trying to take inspiration from what has worked in this machine of software to adapt over the space of code, could we apply that to culture? And our goal is to not say, “You should live your life this way, X, Y, Z,” it’s to set up a process where people are always searching over subcultures and competing for mind share. I think creating this malleability of culture is super important for us to converge onto the cultures and the heuristics about how to live one’s life that are updated to modern times.
Because there’s really been a sort of vacuum of spirituality and culture. People don’t feel like they belong to any one group, and there’s been parasitic ideologies that have taken up opportunity to populate this Petri dish of minds. Elon calls it the mind virus. We call it the decel mind virus complex, which is the decelerative that is kind of the overall pattern between all of them. There’s many variants as well. And so if there’s a sort of viral pessimism, decelerative movement, we needed to have not only one movement, but many, many variants, so it’s very hard to pinpoint and stop.
Lex Fridman
But the overarching thing is nevertheless a kind of mimetic optimism pandemic. Okay, let me ask you, do you think e/acc to some degree is a cult?
But the overarching thing is nevertheless a kind of mimetic optimism pandemic. Okay, let me ask you, do you think e/acc to some degree is a cult?
Guillaume Verdon
Define cult?
Define cult?
Lex Fridman
I think a lot of human progress is made when you have independent thought, so you have individuals that are able to think freely. And very powerful mimetic systems can kind of lead to group think. There’s something in human nature that leads to mass hypnosis, mass hysteria. We start to think alike whenever there’s a sexy idea that captures our minds. And so it’s actually hard to break us apart, pull us apart, diversify a thought. So to that degree, to which degree is everybody kind of chanting “E/acc, e/acc” like the sheep in Animal Farm?
I think a lot of human progress is made when you have independent thought, so you have individuals that are able to think freely. And very powerful mimetic systems can kind of lead to group think. There’s something in human nature that leads to mass hypnosis, mass hysteria. We start to think alike whenever there’s a sexy idea that captures our minds. And so it’s actually hard to break us apart, pull us apart, diversify a thought. So to that degree, to which degree is everybody kind of chanting “E/acc, e/acc” like the sheep in Animal Farm?
Guillaume Verdon
Well, first of all, it’s fun. It’s rebellious. There’s this concept of meta-irony, of being on the boundary of, “We’re not sure if they’re serious or not.” And it’s much more playful and much more fun. For example, we talk about thermodynamics being our god, and sometimes we do cult-like things, but there’s no ceremony and robes and whatnot.
Well, first of all, it’s fun. It’s rebellious. There’s this concept of meta-irony, of being on the boundary of, “We’re not sure if they’re serious or not.” And it’s much more playful and much more fun. For example, we talk about thermodynamics being our god, and sometimes we do cult-like things, but there’s no ceremony and robes and whatnot.
Lex Fridman
Not yet.
Not yet.
Guillaume Verdon
Not yet, no. But ultimately, yeah, I totally agree that it seems to me that humans want to feel like they’re part of a group, so they naturally try to agree with their neighbors and find common ground. And that leads to sort of mode collapse in the space of ideas. We used to have one cultural island that was allowed. It was a typical subspace of thought, and anything that was diverting from that subspace of thought was suppressed or you were canceled. Now we’ve created a new mode, but the whole point is that we’re not trying to have a very restricted space of thought. There’s not just one way to think about e/acc and its many forks. And the point is that there are many forks and there can be many clusters and many islands.
Not yet, no. But ultimately, yeah, I totally agree that it seems to me that humans want to feel like they’re part of a group, so they naturally try to agree with their neighbors and find common ground. And that leads to sort of mode collapse in the space of ideas. We used to have one cultural island that was allowed. It was a typical subspace of thought, and anything that was diverting from that subspace of thought was suppressed or you were canceled. Now we’ve created a new mode, but the whole point is that we’re not trying to have a very restricted space of thought. There’s not just one way to think about e/acc and its many forks. And the point is that there are many forks and there can be many clusters and many islands.
And I shouldn’t be in control of it in any way. I mean, there’s no formal org whatsoever. I just put out tweets and certain blog posts, and people are free to defect and fork if there’s an aspect they don’t like. And so that makes it so that there should be deterritorialization in the space of ideas, so that we don’t end up in one cluster that’s very cult-like. And so cults usually, they don’t allow people to defect or start competing forks, whereas we encourage it.
Humor and memes
Lex Fridman
The pros and cons of humor in meme, in some sense there’s like a wisdom to memes. What is it, the Magic Theater? What book is that from? Hermann Hesse. Steppenwolf, I think. But there’s a kind of embracing of the absurdity that seems to get to the truth of things, but at the same time, it can also decrease the quality and the rigor of the discourse.
The pros and cons of humor in meme, in some sense there’s like a wisdom to memes. What is it, the Magic Theater? What book is that from? Hermann Hesse. Steppenwolf, I think. But there’s a kind of embracing of the absurdity that seems to get to the truth of things, but at the same time, it can also decrease the quality and the rigor of the discourse.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Do you feel the tension of that?
Do you feel the tension of that?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. So initially, I think what allowed us to grow under the radar was because it was camouflaged as sort of meta-ironic. We would sneak in deep truths within a package of humor and memes and what are called shit posts, and I think that was purposefully camouflaged against those that seek status and do not want to… It’s very hard to argue with a cartoon frog or a cartoon of an intergalactic Jeff Bezos and take yourself seriously, and so that allowed us to grow pretty rapidly in the early days. But of course, essentially people get steered. Their notion of the truth comes from the data they see, from the information they’re fed, and the information people are fed is determined by algorithms. And really what we’ve been doing is engineering what we call high memetic fitness packets of information, so that they can spread effectively and carry a message.
Yeah. So initially, I think what allowed us to grow under the radar was because it was camouflaged as sort of meta-ironic. We would sneak in deep truths within a package of humor and memes and what are called shit posts, and I think that was purposefully camouflaged against those that seek status and do not want to… It’s very hard to argue with a cartoon frog or a cartoon of an intergalactic Jeff Bezos and take yourself seriously, and so that allowed us to grow pretty rapidly in the early days. But of course, essentially people get steered. Their notion of the truth comes from the data they see, from the information they’re fed, and the information people are fed is determined by algorithms. And really what we’ve been doing is engineering what we call high memetic fitness packets of information, so that they can spread effectively and carry a message.
So it’s kind of a vector to spread the message. And yes, we’ve been using techniques that are optimal for today’s algorithmically-amplified information landscapes. But I think we’re reaching the point of scale where we can have serious debates and serious conversations. And that’s why we’re considering doing a bunch of debates and having more serious long-form discussions. Because I don’t think that the timeline is optimal for very serious, thoughtful discussions. You get rewarded for polarization. And so even though we started a movement that is literally trying to polarize the tech ecosystem, at the end of the day so that we can have a conversation and find an optimum together.
Jeff Bezos
Lex Fridman
I mean, that’s kind of what I try to do with this podcast given the landscape of things, to still have long-form conversations. But there is a degree to which absurdity is fully embraced. In fact, this very conversation is multi-level absurd. So first of all, I should say that just very recently I had a conversation with Jeff Bezos, and I would love to hear your, Beff Jezos, opinions of Jeff Bezos. Speaking of intergalactic Jeff Bezos. What do you think of that particular individual whom your name has inspired?
I mean, that’s kind of what I try to do with this podcast given the landscape of things, to still have long-form conversations. But there is a degree to which absurdity is fully embraced. In fact, this very conversation is multi-level absurd. So first of all, I should say that just very recently I had a conversation with Jeff Bezos, and I would love to hear your, Beff Jezos, opinions of Jeff Bezos. Speaking of intergalactic Jeff Bezos. What do you think of that particular individual whom your name has inspired?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, I think Jeff is really great. I mean, he’s built one of the most epic companies of all time. He’s leveraged the techno-capital machine and techno-capital acceleration to give us what we wanted. We want a quick delivery, very convenient, at-home, low prices. He understood how the machine worked and how to harness it, like running the company, not trying to take profits too early, putting it back, letting the system compound and keep improving. And arguably, I think Amazon’s invested some of the most amount of capital and robotics out there, and certainly with the birth of AWS, kind of enabled the tech boom we’ve seen today that has paid the salaries of, I guess myself and all of our friends to some extent. And so I think we can all be grateful to Jeff, and he’s one of the great entrepreneurs out there. one of the best of all time, unarguably.
Yeah, I think Jeff is really great. I mean, he’s built one of the most epic companies of all time. He’s leveraged the techno-capital machine and techno-capital acceleration to give us what we wanted. We want a quick delivery, very convenient, at-home, low prices. He understood how the machine worked and how to harness it, like running the company, not trying to take profits too early, putting it back, letting the system compound and keep improving. And arguably, I think Amazon’s invested some of the most amount of capital and robotics out there, and certainly with the birth of AWS, kind of enabled the tech boom we’ve seen today that has paid the salaries of, I guess myself and all of our friends to some extent. And so I think we can all be grateful to Jeff, and he’s one of the great entrepreneurs out there. one of the best of all time, unarguably.
Lex Fridman
And of course, the work at Blue Origin, similar to the work at SpaceX, is trying to make humans a multi-planetary species, which that seems almost like a bigger thing than the capitalist machine. Or it’s the capitalist machine at a different timescale perhaps?
And of course, the work at Blue Origin, similar to the work at SpaceX, is trying to make humans a multi-planetary species, which that seems almost like a bigger thing than the capitalist machine. Or it’s the capitalist machine at a different timescale perhaps?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, I think that companies, they tend to optimize quarter over quarter, maybe a few years out, but individuals that want to leave a legacy can think on a multi-decadal or multi-century timescale. And so the fact that some individuals are such good capital allocators that they unlock the ability to allocate capitals to goals that take us much further or are much further-looking… Elon’s doing this with SpaceX, putting all this capital towards getting us to Mars. Jeff is trying to build Blue Origin, and I think he wants to build O’Neill cylinders and get industry off- planet, which I think is brilliant.
Yeah, I think that companies, they tend to optimize quarter over quarter, maybe a few years out, but individuals that want to leave a legacy can think on a multi-decadal or multi-century timescale. And so the fact that some individuals are such good capital allocators that they unlock the ability to allocate capitals to goals that take us much further or are much further-looking… Elon’s doing this with SpaceX, putting all this capital towards getting us to Mars. Jeff is trying to build Blue Origin, and I think he wants to build O’Neill cylinders and get industry off- planet, which I think is brilliant.
I think just overall, I’m four billionaires. I know this is a controversial statement sometimes, but I think that in a sense it’s kind of a proof of stake voting. If you’ve allocated capital efficiently, you unlock more capital to allocate, just because clearly you know how to allocate capital more efficiently. Which is in contrast to politicians that get elected because they speak the best on TV, not because they have a proven track record of allocating taxpayer capital most efficiently. And so that’s why I’m for capitalism over, say, giving all our money to the government and letting them figure out how to allocate it.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think it’s a viral and it’s a popular meme to criticize billionaires? Since you mentioned billionaires. Why do you think there’s quite a widespread criticism of people with wealth, especially those in the public eye, like Jeff and Elon and Mark Zuckerberg, and who else? Bill Gates.
Why do you think it’s a viral and it’s a popular meme to criticize billionaires? Since you mentioned billionaires. Why do you think there’s quite a widespread criticism of people with wealth, especially those in the public eye, like Jeff and Elon and Mark Zuckerberg, and who else? Bill Gates.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, I think a lot of people would, instead of trying to understand how the techno-capital machine works and realizing they have much more agency than they think, they’d rather have this sort of victim mindset. “I’m just subjected to this machine. It is oppressing me. And the successful players clearly must be evil because they’ve been successful at this game that I’m not successful at.” But I’ve managed to get some people that were in that mindset and make them realize how the techno-capital machine works and how you can harness it for your own good and for the good of others. And by creating value, you capture some of the value you create for the world. That sort of positive sum mindset shift is so potent, and really, that’s what we’re trying to do by scaling e/acc, is unlocking that higher level of agency. Actually, you’re far more in control of the future than you think. You have agency to change the world, go out and do it. Here’s permission.
Yeah, I think a lot of people would, instead of trying to understand how the techno-capital machine works and realizing they have much more agency than they think, they’d rather have this sort of victim mindset. “I’m just subjected to this machine. It is oppressing me. And the successful players clearly must be evil because they’ve been successful at this game that I’m not successful at.” But I’ve managed to get some people that were in that mindset and make them realize how the techno-capital machine works and how you can harness it for your own good and for the good of others. And by creating value, you capture some of the value you create for the world. That sort of positive sum mindset shift is so potent, and really, that’s what we’re trying to do by scaling e/acc, is unlocking that higher level of agency. Actually, you’re far more in control of the future than you think. You have agency to change the world, go out and do it. Here’s permission.
Lex Fridman
Each individual has agency. The motto, “Keep building” is often heard. What does that mean to you, and what does that have to do with Diet Coke? By the way, thank you so much for the Red Bull. It’s working pretty well. I’m feeling pretty good.
Each individual has agency. The motto, “Keep building” is often heard. What does that mean to you, and what does that have to do with Diet Coke? By the way, thank you so much for the Red Bull. It’s working pretty well. I’m feeling pretty good.
Guillaume Verdon
Awesome. Well, so building technologies and building… It doesn’t have to be technologies, just building in general means having agency, trying to change the world by creating, let’s say a company which is a self-sustaining organism that accomplishes a function in the broader techno-capital machine. To us, that’s the way to achieve change in the world that you’d like to see, rather than, say, pressuring politicians or creating nonprofits. Nonprofits, once they run out of money, their function can longer be accomplished. You’re kind of deforming the market artificially compared to sort of subverting or coursing the market, or dancing with the market, to convince it that actually this function is important, adds value, and here it is. And so I think this is the way between the de-growth, ESG approach, versus, say, Elon. The de-growth approach is like, “We’re going to manage our way out of a climate crisis.” And Elon is like, “I’m going to build a company that is self-sustaining, profitable, and growing, and we’re going to innovate our way out of this dilemma.” And we’re trying to get people to do the latter rather than the former, at all scales.
Awesome. Well, so building technologies and building… It doesn’t have to be technologies, just building in general means having agency, trying to change the world by creating, let’s say a company which is a self-sustaining organism that accomplishes a function in the broader techno-capital machine. To us, that’s the way to achieve change in the world that you’d like to see, rather than, say, pressuring politicians or creating nonprofits. Nonprofits, once they run out of money, their function can longer be accomplished. You’re kind of deforming the market artificially compared to sort of subverting or coursing the market, or dancing with the market, to convince it that actually this function is important, adds value, and here it is. And so I think this is the way between the de-growth, ESG approach, versus, say, Elon. The de-growth approach is like, “We’re going to manage our way out of a climate crisis.” And Elon is like, “I’m going to build a company that is self-sustaining, profitable, and growing, and we’re going to innovate our way out of this dilemma.” And we’re trying to get people to do the latter rather than the former, at all scales.
Elon Musk
Lex Fridman
Elon is an interesting case. You are a proponent, you celebrate Elon, but he’s also somebody who has for a long time warned about the dangers, the potential dangers, existential risks of artificial intelligence. How do you square the two? Is that a contradiction to you?
Elon is an interesting case. You are a proponent, you celebrate Elon, but he’s also somebody who has for a long time warned about the dangers, the potential dangers, existential risks of artificial intelligence. How do you square the two? Is that a contradiction to you?
Guillaume Verdon
It is somewhat because he’s very much against regulation in many aspects. But for AI, he’s definitely a proponent of regulations. I think overall he saw the dangers of, say, OpenAI cornering the market and then getting to have the monopoly over the cultural priors that you can embed in these LLMs that then, as LLMs now become the source of truth for people, then you can shape the culture of the people. And so you can control people by controlling LLMs. He saw that, just like it was the case for social media, if you shape the function of information propagation, you can shape people’s opinions. He sought to make a competitor. So at least, I think we’re very aligned there, that the way to a good future is to maintain adversarial equilibria between the various AI players. I’d love to talk to him to understand his thinking about how to advance AI going forwards. I mean, he’s also hedging his bets, I would say, with Neuralink. I think if he can’t stop the progress of AI, he’s building the technology to merge. Look at the actions, not just the words.
It is somewhat because he’s very much against regulation in many aspects. But for AI, he’s definitely a proponent of regulations. I think overall he saw the dangers of, say, OpenAI cornering the market and then getting to have the monopoly over the cultural priors that you can embed in these LLMs that then, as LLMs now become the source of truth for people, then you can shape the culture of the people. And so you can control people by controlling LLMs. He saw that, just like it was the case for social media, if you shape the function of information propagation, you can shape people’s opinions. He sought to make a competitor. So at least, I think we’re very aligned there, that the way to a good future is to maintain adversarial equilibria between the various AI players. I’d love to talk to him to understand his thinking about how to advance AI going forwards. I mean, he’s also hedging his bets, I would say, with Neuralink. I think if he can’t stop the progress of AI, he’s building the technology to merge. Look at the actions, not just the words.
Lex Fridman
Well, there’s some degree where being concerned… Maybe using human psychology, being concerned about threats all around us is a motivator. It’s an encouraging thing. I operate much better when there’s a deadline. The fear of the deadline. And I, for myself, create artificial things, like I want to create in myself this kind of anxiety as if something really horrible will happen if I miss the deadline. I think there’s some degree of that here, because creating AI that’s aligned with humans has a lot of potential benefits. And so a different way to reframe that is, “If you don’t, we’re all going to die.” It just seems to be a very powerful psychological formulation of the goal of creating human-aligned AI.
Well, there’s some degree where being concerned… Maybe using human psychology, being concerned about threats all around us is a motivator. It’s an encouraging thing. I operate much better when there’s a deadline. The fear of the deadline. And I, for myself, create artificial things, like I want to create in myself this kind of anxiety as if something really horrible will happen if I miss the deadline. I think there’s some degree of that here, because creating AI that’s aligned with humans has a lot of potential benefits. And so a different way to reframe that is, “If you don’t, we’re all going to die.” It just seems to be a very powerful psychological formulation of the goal of creating human-aligned AI.
Guillaume Verdon
I think that anxiety is good. I think, like I said, I want the free market to create aligned AIs that are reliable, and I think that’s what he’s trying to do with xAI. So I’m all for it. What I am against is stopping, let’s say the OpenSource ecosystem from thriving by, let’s say in the executive order, claiming that OpenSource LMs are dual-use technologies and should be government controlled. Then everybody needs to register their GPU and their big matrices with the government. And I think that extra friction will dissuade a lot of hackers from contributing, hackers that could later become the researchers that make key discoveries that push us forward, including discoveries for AI safety. And so I think I just want to maintain ubiquity of opportunity to contribute to AI and to own a piece of the future. It can’t just be legislated behind some wall where only a few players get to play the game.
I think that anxiety is good. I think, like I said, I want the free market to create aligned AIs that are reliable, and I think that’s what he’s trying to do with xAI. So I’m all for it. What I am against is stopping, let’s say the OpenSource ecosystem from thriving by, let’s say in the executive order, claiming that OpenSource LMs are dual-use technologies and should be government controlled. Then everybody needs to register their GPU and their big matrices with the government. And I think that extra friction will dissuade a lot of hackers from contributing, hackers that could later become the researchers that make key discoveries that push us forward, including discoveries for AI safety. And so I think I just want to maintain ubiquity of opportunity to contribute to AI and to own a piece of the future. It can’t just be legislated behind some wall where only a few players get to play the game.
Lex Fridman
The e/acc movement is often caricatured to mean progress and innovation at all costs. Doesn’t matter how unsafe it is, doesn’t matter if it causes a lot of damage. You just build cool shit as fast as possible, stay up all night with a Diet Coke, whatever it takes. I guess, I don’t know if there’s a question in there, but how important to you and what you’ve seen the different formulations of e/acc, is AI safety?
The e/acc movement is often caricatured to mean progress and innovation at all costs. Doesn’t matter how unsafe it is, doesn’t matter if it causes a lot of damage. You just build cool shit as fast as possible, stay up all night with a Diet Coke, whatever it takes. I guess, I don’t know if there’s a question in there, but how important to you and what you’ve seen the different formulations of e/acc, is AI safety?
Guillaume Verdon
Again, I think if there was no one working on it, I think I would be a proponent of it. I think, again, our goal is to bring balance, and obviously a sense of urgency is a useful tool to make progress. It hacks our dopaminergic systems and gives us energy to work late into the night. I think also having a higher purpose you’re contributing to. At the end of the day, it’s like, what am I contributing to? I’m contributing to the growth of this beautiful machine so that we can seek to the stars. That’s really inspiring. That’s also a sort of neuro hack.
Again, I think if there was no one working on it, I think I would be a proponent of it. I think, again, our goal is to bring balance, and obviously a sense of urgency is a useful tool to make progress. It hacks our dopaminergic systems and gives us energy to work late into the night. I think also having a higher purpose you’re contributing to. At the end of the day, it’s like, what am I contributing to? I’m contributing to the growth of this beautiful machine so that we can seek to the stars. That’s really inspiring. That’s also a sort of neuro hack.
Lex Fridman
So you’re saying AI safety is important to you, but right now the landscape of ideas you see is, AI safety as a topic is used more often to gain centralized control. So in that sense, you’re resisting it, as a proxy for gaining centralized control?
So you’re saying AI safety is important to you, but right now the landscape of ideas you see is, AI safety as a topic is used more often to gain centralized control. So in that sense, you’re resisting it, as a proxy for gaining centralized control?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, I just think we have to be careful, because safety is just the perfect cover for centralization of power and covering up eventually corruption. I’m not saying it’s corrupted now, but it could be down the line. And really, if you let the argument run, there’s no amount of centralization of control that will be enough to ensure your safety. There’s always more 999s of P safety that you can gain, 99.9999% safe. Maybe you want another nine. “Oh, please give us full access to everything you do. Full surveillance.” And frankly, those that are proponents of AI safety have proposed having a global panopticon where you have centralized perception of everything going on. And to me, that just opens up the door wide open for a big brother, 1984-like scenario. And that’s not a future I want to live in.
Yeah, I just think we have to be careful, because safety is just the perfect cover for centralization of power and covering up eventually corruption. I’m not saying it’s corrupted now, but it could be down the line. And really, if you let the argument run, there’s no amount of centralization of control that will be enough to ensure your safety. There’s always more 999s of P safety that you can gain, 99.9999% safe. Maybe you want another nine. “Oh, please give us full access to everything you do. Full surveillance.” And frankly, those that are proponents of AI safety have proposed having a global panopticon where you have centralized perception of everything going on. And to me, that just opens up the door wide open for a big brother, 1984-like scenario. And that’s not a future I want to live in.
Lex Fridman
Because we have some examples throughout history when that did not lead to a good outcome.
Because we have some examples throughout history when that did not lead to a good outcome.
Extropic
Guillaume Verdon
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
You mentioned you founded a company, Extropic, that recently announced a 14.1 million seed round. What’s the goal of the company? You’re talking about a lot of interesting physics things, so what are you up to over there that you can talk about?
You mentioned you founded a company, Extropic, that recently announced a 14.1 million seed round. What’s the goal of the company? You’re talking about a lot of interesting physics things, so what are you up to over there that you can talk about?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, originally we weren’t going to announce last week, but I think with the doxing and disclosure, we got our hand forced. So we had to disclose roughly what we were doing. But really, Extropic was born from my dissatisfaction, and that of my colleagues, with the quantum computing roadmap. Quantum computing was sort of the first path to physics-based computing that was trying to commercially scale, and I was working on physics-based AI that runs on these physics-based computers. But ultimately, our greatest enemy was this noise, this pervasive problem of noise that, as I mentioned, you have to constantly pump out the noise out of the system to maintain this pristine environment where quantum mechanics can take effect. And that constraint was just too much. It’s too costly to do that.
Yeah, originally we weren’t going to announce last week, but I think with the doxing and disclosure, we got our hand forced. So we had to disclose roughly what we were doing. But really, Extropic was born from my dissatisfaction, and that of my colleagues, with the quantum computing roadmap. Quantum computing was sort of the first path to physics-based computing that was trying to commercially scale, and I was working on physics-based AI that runs on these physics-based computers. But ultimately, our greatest enemy was this noise, this pervasive problem of noise that, as I mentioned, you have to constantly pump out the noise out of the system to maintain this pristine environment where quantum mechanics can take effect. And that constraint was just too much. It’s too costly to do that.
And so we were wondering, as generative AI is sort of eating the world, more and more of the world’s computational workloads are focused on generative AI, how could we use physics to engineer the ultimate physical substrate for generative AI from first principles of physics, of information theory, of computation, and ultimately of thermodynamics? And so what we’re seeking to build is a physics-based computing system and physics-based AI algorithms that are inspired by out-of-equilibrium thermodynamics, or harness it directly to do machine learning as a physical process.
Lex Fridman
So what does that mean, machine learning as a physical process? Is that hardware? Is it software? Is it both? Is it trying to do the full stack in some kind of unique way?
So what does that mean, machine learning as a physical process? Is that hardware? Is it software? Is it both? Is it trying to do the full stack in some kind of unique way?
Guillaume Verdon
Yes, it is full stack. And so we’re folks that have built differentiable programming into the quantum computing ecosystem with TensorFlow Quantum. One of my co-founders of TensorFlow Quantum is the CTO, Trevor McCourt. We have some of the best quantum computer architects, those that have designed IBM’s and AWS’s systems. They’ve left quantum computing to help us build what we call actually a thermodynamic computer.
Yes, it is full stack. And so we’re folks that have built differentiable programming into the quantum computing ecosystem with TensorFlow Quantum. One of my co-founders of TensorFlow Quantum is the CTO, Trevor McCourt. We have some of the best quantum computer architects, those that have designed IBM’s and AWS’s systems. They’ve left quantum computing to help us build what we call actually a thermodynamic computer.
Lex Fridman
A thermodynamic computer. Well, actually let’s linger around TensorFlow Quantum. What lessons have you learned from TensorFlow Quantum? Maybe you can speak to what it takes to create essentially, what, like a software API to a quantum computer?
A thermodynamic computer. Well, actually let’s linger around TensorFlow Quantum. What lessons have you learned from TensorFlow Quantum? Maybe you can speak to what it takes to create essentially, what, like a software API to a quantum computer?
Guillaume Verdon
Right. That was a challenge to invent, to build, and then to get to run on the real devices.
Right. That was a challenge to invent, to build, and then to get to run on the real devices.
Lex Fridman
Can you actually speak to what it is?
Can you actually speak to what it is?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. TensorFlow Quantum was an attempt at… Well, I guess we succeeded, at combining deep learning or differentiable classical programming with quantum computing, and turn quantum computing into or have types of programs that are differentiable in quantum computing. And Andrej Karpathy calls differentiable programming, Software 2.0. It’s like, gradient descent is a better programmer than you. And the idea was that in the early days of quantum computing, you can only run short quantum programs. And so, which quantum programs should you run? Well, just let gradient descent find those programs instead. And so we built the first infrastructure to not only run differentiable quantum programs, but combine them as part of broader deep learning graphs, incorporating deep neural networks, the ones you know and love, with what are called quantum neural networks.
Yeah. TensorFlow Quantum was an attempt at… Well, I guess we succeeded, at combining deep learning or differentiable classical programming with quantum computing, and turn quantum computing into or have types of programs that are differentiable in quantum computing. And Andrej Karpathy calls differentiable programming, Software 2.0. It’s like, gradient descent is a better programmer than you. And the idea was that in the early days of quantum computing, you can only run short quantum programs. And so, which quantum programs should you run? Well, just let gradient descent find those programs instead. And so we built the first infrastructure to not only run differentiable quantum programs, but combine them as part of broader deep learning graphs, incorporating deep neural networks, the ones you know and love, with what are called quantum neural networks.
And ultimately, it was a very cross-disciplinary effort. We had to invent all sorts of ways to differentiate, to back propagate through the hybrid graph. But ultimately, it taught me that the way to program matter and to program physics is by differentiating through control parameters. If you have parameters that affects the physics of the system and you can evaluate some loss function, you can optimize the system to accomplish a task, whatever that task may be. And that’s a very universal meta framework for how to program physics-based computers.
Lex Fridman
So try to parameterize everything, make those parameters differentiable, and then optimize?
So try to parameterize everything, make those parameters differentiable, and then optimize?
Guillaume Verdon
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Okay. Is there some more practical engineering lessons from TensorFlow Quantum? Just organizationally too, like the humans involved and how to get to a product, how to create good documentation? I don’t know. All of these little subtle things that people might not think about.
Okay. Is there some more practical engineering lessons from TensorFlow Quantum? Just organizationally too, like the humans involved and how to get to a product, how to create good documentation? I don’t know. All of these little subtle things that people might not think about.
Guillaume Verdon
I think working across disciplinary boundaries is always a challenge, and you have to be extremely patient in teaching one another. I learned a lot of software engineering through the process. My colleagues learned a lot of quantum physics, and some learned machine learning through the process of building this system. And I think if you get some smart people that are passionate and trust each other in a room, and you have a small team-
I think working across disciplinary boundaries is always a challenge, and you have to be extremely patient in teaching one another. I learned a lot of software engineering through the process. My colleagues learned a lot of quantum physics, and some learned machine learning through the process of building this system. And I think if you get some smart people that are passionate and trust each other in a room, and you have a small team-
Guillaume Verdon
Are passionate and trust each other in a room, and you have a small team, and you teach each other your specialties, suddenly you’re kind of forming this sort of model soup of expertise, and something special comes out of that, right? It’s like combining genes, but for your knowledge bases, and sometimes special products come out of that. And so I think, even though it’s very high friction initially to work in an interdisciplinary team, I think the product at the end of the day is worth it. And so, learned a lot trying to bridge the gap there. And I mean, it’s still a challenge to this day. We hire folks that have an AI background, folks that have a pure physics background, and somehow we have to make them talk to one another. Right?
Are passionate and trust each other in a room, and you have a small team, and you teach each other your specialties, suddenly you’re kind of forming this sort of model soup of expertise, and something special comes out of that, right? It’s like combining genes, but for your knowledge bases, and sometimes special products come out of that. And so I think, even though it’s very high friction initially to work in an interdisciplinary team, I think the product at the end of the day is worth it. And so, learned a lot trying to bridge the gap there. And I mean, it’s still a challenge to this day. We hire folks that have an AI background, folks that have a pure physics background, and somehow we have to make them talk to one another. Right?
Lex Fridman
Is there a magic, is there some science and art to the hiring process, to building a team that can create magic together?
Is there a magic, is there some science and art to the hiring process, to building a team that can create magic together?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, it’s really hard to pinpoint that je ne sais quoi, right?
Yeah, it’s really hard to pinpoint that je ne sais quoi, right?
Lex Fridman
I didn’t know you speak French. That’s very nice.
I didn’t know you speak French. That’s very nice.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, I’m actually French Canadian.
Yeah, I’m actually French Canadian.
Lex Fridman
Oh, you are a legitimately French Canadian.
Oh, you are a legitimately French Canadian.
Guillaume Verdon
I am.
I am.
Lex Fridman
I thought you were just doing that for the cred.
I thought you were just doing that for the cred.
Guillaume Verdon
No, no. I’m truly French Canadian, from Montreal. But yeah, essentially we look for people with very high fluid intelligence that aren’t overspecialized, because they’re going to have to get out of their comfort zone. They’re going to have to incorporate concepts that they’ve never seen before, and very quickly get comfortable with them, or learn to work in a team. And so that’s sort of what we look for when we hire. We can’t hire people that are just optimizing this subsystem for the past three or four years. We need really general sort of broader intelligence and specialty, and people that are open-minded, really, because if you’re pioneering a new approach from scratch, there is no textbook, there’s no reference. It’s just us, and people that are hungry to learn. So, we have to teach each other, we have to learn the literature, we have to share knowledge bases, collaborate in order to push the boundary of knowledge further together. And so, people that are used to just getting prescribed what to do at this stage, when you’re at the pioneering stage, that’s not necessarily who you want to hire. Yeah.
No, no. I’m truly French Canadian, from Montreal. But yeah, essentially we look for people with very high fluid intelligence that aren’t overspecialized, because they’re going to have to get out of their comfort zone. They’re going to have to incorporate concepts that they’ve never seen before, and very quickly get comfortable with them, or learn to work in a team. And so that’s sort of what we look for when we hire. We can’t hire people that are just optimizing this subsystem for the past three or four years. We need really general sort of broader intelligence and specialty, and people that are open-minded, really, because if you’re pioneering a new approach from scratch, there is no textbook, there’s no reference. It’s just us, and people that are hungry to learn. So, we have to teach each other, we have to learn the literature, we have to share knowledge bases, collaborate in order to push the boundary of knowledge further together. And so, people that are used to just getting prescribed what to do at this stage, when you’re at the pioneering stage, that’s not necessarily who you want to hire. Yeah.
Singularity and AGI
Lex Fridman
So you mentioned with Extropic you’re trying to build the physical substrate for generative AI. What’s the difference between that and the AGI AI itself? So, is it possible that in the halls of your company, AGI will be created? Or will AGI just be using this as a substrate?
So you mentioned with Extropic you’re trying to build the physical substrate for generative AI. What’s the difference between that and the AGI AI itself? So, is it possible that in the halls of your company, AGI will be created? Or will AGI just be using this as a substrate?
Guillaume Verdon
I think our goal is to both run human like AI, or anthropomorphic AI.
I think our goal is to both run human like AI, or anthropomorphic AI.
Lex Fridman
Sorry for use of the term AGI. I know it’s triggering for you.
Sorry for use of the term AGI. I know it’s triggering for you.
Guillaume Verdon
We think that the future is actually physics-based AI combined with anthropomorphic AI. So, you can imagine, I have a sort of world modeling engine through physics-based AI. Physics-based AI is better at representing the world at all scales, because it can be quantum mechanical, thermodynamic, deterministic, hybrid representations of the world, just like our world at different scales has different regimes of physics. If you inspire yourself from that in the ways you learn representations of nature, you can have much more accurate representations of nature. So, you can have very accurate world models at all scales. And so, you have the world modeling engine, and then you have the anthropomorphic AI that is human-like. So you can have the science, the playground to test your ideas, and you can have the synthetic scientist. And to us, that joint system of a physics-based and an anthropomorphic AI is the closest thing to a fully general, artificially intelligent system.
We think that the future is actually physics-based AI combined with anthropomorphic AI. So, you can imagine, I have a sort of world modeling engine through physics-based AI. Physics-based AI is better at representing the world at all scales, because it can be quantum mechanical, thermodynamic, deterministic, hybrid representations of the world, just like our world at different scales has different regimes of physics. If you inspire yourself from that in the ways you learn representations of nature, you can have much more accurate representations of nature. So, you can have very accurate world models at all scales. And so, you have the world modeling engine, and then you have the anthropomorphic AI that is human-like. So you can have the science, the playground to test your ideas, and you can have the synthetic scientist. And to us, that joint system of a physics-based and an anthropomorphic AI is the closest thing to a fully general, artificially intelligent system.
Lex Fridman
So you can get closer to truth by grounding of the AI to physics, but you can also still have a anthropomorphic interface to us humans that like to talk to other humans, or human-like systems. So, on that topic, I suppose that is one of the big limitations of current large language models to you, is that they’re good bullshitters, they’re not really grounded to truth necessarily. Would that be fair to say?
So you can get closer to truth by grounding of the AI to physics, but you can also still have a anthropomorphic interface to us humans that like to talk to other humans, or human-like systems. So, on that topic, I suppose that is one of the big limitations of current large language models to you, is that they’re good bullshitters, they’re not really grounded to truth necessarily. Would that be fair to say?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, no, you wouldn’t try to extrapolate the stock market with an LM trained on text from the internet. It’s not going to be a very accurate model. It’s not going to model its priors or its uncertainties about the world very accurately. So, you need a different type of AI to compliment this text extrapolation AI. Yeah.
Yeah, no, you wouldn’t try to extrapolate the stock market with an LM trained on text from the internet. It’s not going to be a very accurate model. It’s not going to model its priors or its uncertainties about the world very accurately. So, you need a different type of AI to compliment this text extrapolation AI. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
You mentioned singularity earlier. How far away are we from a singularity?
You mentioned singularity earlier. How far away are we from a singularity?
Guillaume Verdon
I don’t know if I believe in a finite time singularity as a single point in time. I think it’s going to be asymptotic, and sort of a diagonal sort of asymptote. We have the light cone, we have the limits of physics restricting our ability to grow. So, obviously can’t fully diverge on a finite time. I think my priors are that I think a lot of people on the other side of the aisle think that once we reach human level AI, there’s going to be an inflection point, and a sudden [inaudible 02:25:48], suddenly AI is going to grok how to manipulate matter at the nano scale, and assemble nanobots. And having worked for nearly a decade in applying AI to engineer matter, it’s much harder than they think. And in reality, you need a lot of samples from either a simulation of nature that’s very accurate and costly, or nature itself, and that keeps your ability to control the world around us in check. There’s a sort of minimal cost computationally, and thermodynamically, to acquiring information about the world in order to be able to predict and control it. And that keeps things in check.
I don’t know if I believe in a finite time singularity as a single point in time. I think it’s going to be asymptotic, and sort of a diagonal sort of asymptote. We have the light cone, we have the limits of physics restricting our ability to grow. So, obviously can’t fully diverge on a finite time. I think my priors are that I think a lot of people on the other side of the aisle think that once we reach human level AI, there’s going to be an inflection point, and a sudden [inaudible 02:25:48], suddenly AI is going to grok how to manipulate matter at the nano scale, and assemble nanobots. And having worked for nearly a decade in applying AI to engineer matter, it’s much harder than they think. And in reality, you need a lot of samples from either a simulation of nature that’s very accurate and costly, or nature itself, and that keeps your ability to control the world around us in check. There’s a sort of minimal cost computationally, and thermodynamically, to acquiring information about the world in order to be able to predict and control it. And that keeps things in check.
AI doomers
Lex Fridman
It’s funny you mentioned the other side of the aisle. So, in the poll I posted about p(doom) yesterday, what’s the probability of doom? There seems to be a nice division between people think it’s very likely, and very unlikely. I wonder if in the future there’ll be the actual Republicans versus Democrats division, blue versus red? Is the AI doomers versus the e/accers, EAC? [inaudible 02:26:53].
It’s funny you mentioned the other side of the aisle. So, in the poll I posted about p(doom) yesterday, what’s the probability of doom? There seems to be a nice division between people think it’s very likely, and very unlikely. I wonder if in the future there’ll be the actual Republicans versus Democrats division, blue versus red? Is the AI doomers versus the e/accers, EAC? [inaudible 02:26:53].
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. So, this movement is not right wing or left wing fundamentally, it’s more like up versus down, in terms of the scale of-
Yeah. So, this movement is not right wing or left wing fundamentally, it’s more like up versus down, in terms of the scale of-
Lex Fridman
Which one is the up? Okay.
Which one is the up? Okay.
Guillaume Verdon
… Civilization, right?
… Civilization, right?
Lex Fridman
All right.
All right.
Guillaume Verdon
But, it seems to be like there is sort of case of alignment of the existing political parties, where those that are for more centralization of power, control, and more regulations are aligning themselves with the doomers, because that sort of instilling fear in people is a great way for them to give up more control, and give the government more power. But fundamentally, we’re not left versus right. I think we’ve done polls of people’s alignment within EAC. I think it’s pretty balanced. So, it’s a new fundamental issue of our time. It’s not just centralization versus decentralization. It’s kind of do we go… It’s like tech progressivism, versus techno conservatism. Right?
But, it seems to be like there is sort of case of alignment of the existing political parties, where those that are for more centralization of power, control, and more regulations are aligning themselves with the doomers, because that sort of instilling fear in people is a great way for them to give up more control, and give the government more power. But fundamentally, we’re not left versus right. I think we’ve done polls of people’s alignment within EAC. I think it’s pretty balanced. So, it’s a new fundamental issue of our time. It’s not just centralization versus decentralization. It’s kind of do we go… It’s like tech progressivism, versus techno conservatism. Right?
Effective altruism
Lex Fridman
So e/acc as a movement is often formulated in contrast to EA, effective altruism. What do you think are the pros and cons of effective altruism? What’s interesting, insightful to you about them, and what is negative?
So e/acc as a movement is often formulated in contrast to EA, effective altruism. What do you think are the pros and cons of effective altruism? What’s interesting, insightful to you about them, and what is negative?
Guillaume Verdon
Right. I think people trying to do good from first principles is good.
Right. I think people trying to do good from first principles is good.
Lex Fridman
We should actually say, and sorry to interrupt, we should probably say that, and you can correct me if I’m wrong, but effective altruism is the kind of movement that’s trying to do good optimally, where good is probably measured something like the amount of suffering in the world. You want to minimize it. And there’s ways that that can go wrong, as any optimization can. And so, it’s interesting to explore how things can go wrong.
We should actually say, and sorry to interrupt, we should probably say that, and you can correct me if I’m wrong, but effective altruism is the kind of movement that’s trying to do good optimally, where good is probably measured something like the amount of suffering in the world. You want to minimize it. And there’s ways that that can go wrong, as any optimization can. And so, it’s interesting to explore how things can go wrong.
Guillaume Verdon
We’re both trying to do good to some extent, and we’re arguing for which loss function we should use, right?
We’re both trying to do good to some extent, and we’re arguing for which loss function we should use, right?
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Guillaume Verdon
Their loss function is sort of hedons, units of hedonism. How good do you feel, and for how much time? And so, suffering would be negative hedons, and they’re trying to minimize that. But to us that seems like that loss function has sort of spurious minima, you can start minimizing shrimp farm pain, which seems not that productive to me. Or you can end up with wire heading, where you just either install a neural link, or you scroll TikTok forever, and you feel good on the short-term timescale because of your neurochemistry, but on a long-term timescale, it causes decay and death, because you’re not being productive.
Their loss function is sort of hedons, units of hedonism. How good do you feel, and for how much time? And so, suffering would be negative hedons, and they’re trying to minimize that. But to us that seems like that loss function has sort of spurious minima, you can start minimizing shrimp farm pain, which seems not that productive to me. Or you can end up with wire heading, where you just either install a neural link, or you scroll TikTok forever, and you feel good on the short-term timescale because of your neurochemistry, but on a long-term timescale, it causes decay and death, because you’re not being productive.
Whereas sort of EAC, measuring progress of civilization, not in terms of a subjective loss function like hedonism, but rather an objective measure, quantity that cannot be gamed that is physical energy, it’s very objective, and there’s not many ways to game it. If you did it in terms of GDP, or a currency, that’s pinned to certain value that’s moving. And so, that’s not a good way to measure our progress. But the thing is we’re both trying to make progress, and ensure humanity flourishes, and gets to grow. We just have different loss functions, and different ways of going about doing it.
Lex Fridman
Is there a degree, maybe you can educate me, correct me, I get a little bit skeptical when there’s an equation involved trying to reduce all of the human civilization, human experience to an equation. Is there a degree that we should be skeptical of the tyranny of an equation of a loss function over wish to optimize? Like having a kind of intellectual humility about optimizing over loss functions?
Is there a degree, maybe you can educate me, correct me, I get a little bit skeptical when there’s an equation involved trying to reduce all of the human civilization, human experience to an equation. Is there a degree that we should be skeptical of the tyranny of an equation of a loss function over wish to optimize? Like having a kind of intellectual humility about optimizing over loss functions?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah. So, this particular loss function, it’s not stiff. It’s kind of an average of averages. It’s like distributions of states in the future are going to follow a certain distribution. So it’s not deterministic, it’s not like… We’re not on stiff rails. It’s just a statistical statement about the future. But at the end of the day, you can believe in gravity or not, but it’s not necessarily an option to obey it. And some people try to test that, and that goes not so well. So, similarly, I think thermodynamics is there whether we like it or not, and we’re just trying to point out what is, and try to orient ourselves, and chart a path forward given this fundamental truth.
Yeah. So, this particular loss function, it’s not stiff. It’s kind of an average of averages. It’s like distributions of states in the future are going to follow a certain distribution. So it’s not deterministic, it’s not like… We’re not on stiff rails. It’s just a statistical statement about the future. But at the end of the day, you can believe in gravity or not, but it’s not necessarily an option to obey it. And some people try to test that, and that goes not so well. So, similarly, I think thermodynamics is there whether we like it or not, and we’re just trying to point out what is, and try to orient ourselves, and chart a path forward given this fundamental truth.
Lex Fridman
But there’s still some uncertainty, there’s still a lack of information, and humans tend to fill the gap of the lack of information with narratives. And so, how they interpret… Even physics is up to interpretation when there’s uncertainty involved. And humans tend to use that to further their own means. So, it’s always, whenever there’s an equation, it just seems like until we have really perfect understanding of the universe, humans will do what humans do, and they try to use the narrative of doing good to fool the populace into doing bad. I guess that this is something that we should be skeptical about in all movements.
But there’s still some uncertainty, there’s still a lack of information, and humans tend to fill the gap of the lack of information with narratives. And so, how they interpret… Even physics is up to interpretation when there’s uncertainty involved. And humans tend to use that to further their own means. So, it’s always, whenever there’s an equation, it just seems like until we have really perfect understanding of the universe, humans will do what humans do, and they try to use the narrative of doing good to fool the populace into doing bad. I guess that this is something that we should be skeptical about in all movements.
Guillaume Verdon
That’s right? So we invite skepticism. Right?
That’s right? So we invite skepticism. Right?
Lex Fridman
Do you have an understanding of what might, to a degree that went wrong, what do you think may have gone wrong with effective altruism that might also go wrong with effective accelerationism?
Do you have an understanding of what might, to a degree that went wrong, what do you think may have gone wrong with effective altruism that might also go wrong with effective accelerationism?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, I mean I think it provided initially a sense of community for engineers, and intellectuals, and rationalists in the early days, and it seems like the community was very healthy, but then they formed all sorts of organizations, and started routing capital, and having actual power. They have real power. They influence the government, they influence most AI orgs now. I mean, they’re literally controlling the board of OpenAI, and look over to Anthropic. I think they’ll have some control over that too. And so, I think the assumption of e/acc is more like capitalism, is that every agent organism and meta organism is going to act in its own interest, and we should maintain sort of adversarial equilibrium, or adversarial competition to keep each other in check at all times, at all scales. I think that yeah, ultimately, it was the perfect cover to acquire tons of power, and capital, and unfortunately sometimes that corrupts people over time.
Yeah, I mean I think it provided initially a sense of community for engineers, and intellectuals, and rationalists in the early days, and it seems like the community was very healthy, but then they formed all sorts of organizations, and started routing capital, and having actual power. They have real power. They influence the government, they influence most AI orgs now. I mean, they’re literally controlling the board of OpenAI, and look over to Anthropic. I think they’ll have some control over that too. And so, I think the assumption of e/acc is more like capitalism, is that every agent organism and meta organism is going to act in its own interest, and we should maintain sort of adversarial equilibrium, or adversarial competition to keep each other in check at all times, at all scales. I think that yeah, ultimately, it was the perfect cover to acquire tons of power, and capital, and unfortunately sometimes that corrupts people over time.
Day in the life
Lex Fridman
What does a perfectly productive day, since building is important, what is a perfectly productive day in the life of Guillaume Verdon look like? How much caffeine do you consume? What’s a perfect day?
What does a perfectly productive day, since building is important, what is a perfectly productive day in the life of Guillaume Verdon look like? How much caffeine do you consume? What’s a perfect day?
Guillaume Verdon
Okay, so I have a particular regimen. I would say my favorite days are 12:00 PM to 4:00 AM, and I would have meetings in the early afternoon, usually external meetings, some internal meetings. Because I’m CEO, I have to interface with the outside world, whether it’s customers, or investors, or interviewing potential candidates. And usually I’ll have ketones, exogenous ketones.
Okay, so I have a particular regimen. I would say my favorite days are 12:00 PM to 4:00 AM, and I would have meetings in the early afternoon, usually external meetings, some internal meetings. Because I’m CEO, I have to interface with the outside world, whether it’s customers, or investors, or interviewing potential candidates. And usually I’ll have ketones, exogenous ketones.
Lex Fridman
So, are you on a keto diet, or is this-
So, are you on a keto diet, or is this-
Guillaume Verdon
I’ve done keto before for football, and whatnot, but I like to have a meal after part of my day is done, and so I can just have extreme focus.
I’ve done keto before for football, and whatnot, but I like to have a meal after part of my day is done, and so I can just have extreme focus.
Lex Fridman
You do the social interactions earlier in the day without food.
You do the social interactions earlier in the day without food.
Guillaume Verdon
Front load them, yeah. Yeah. Like right now I’m on ketones, and a Red Bull, and it just gives you a clarity of thought that is really next level. Because then when you eat, you’re actually allocating some of your energy that could be going to neural energy to your digestion. After I eat, maybe I take a break, an hour or so, an hour and a half, and then usually it’s like ideally one meal a day, like steak and eggs, and vegetables, animal-based primarily. So, fruit and meat. And then I do a second wind, usually that’s deep work, because I am A CEO, but I’m still technical. I’m contributing to most patents. And there, I’ll just stay up late into the night, and work with engineers on very technical problems.
Front load them, yeah. Yeah. Like right now I’m on ketones, and a Red Bull, and it just gives you a clarity of thought that is really next level. Because then when you eat, you’re actually allocating some of your energy that could be going to neural energy to your digestion. After I eat, maybe I take a break, an hour or so, an hour and a half, and then usually it’s like ideally one meal a day, like steak and eggs, and vegetables, animal-based primarily. So, fruit and meat. And then I do a second wind, usually that’s deep work, because I am A CEO, but I’m still technical. I’m contributing to most patents. And there, I’ll just stay up late into the night, and work with engineers on very technical problems.
Lex Fridman
So it’s like the 9:00 PM to 4:00 AM, whatever though, that range of time.
So it’s like the 9:00 PM to 4:00 AM, whatever though, that range of time.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, yeah. That’s the perfect time. The emails, the things that are on fire stop trickling in, you can focus. And then you have your second wind. And I think Demis Hassabis has a similar workday to some extent. So, I think that’s definitely inspired my workday. But yeah, I started this workday when I was at Google, and had to manage a bit of the product during the day, and have meetings, and then do technical work at night.
Yeah, yeah. That’s the perfect time. The emails, the things that are on fire stop trickling in, you can focus. And then you have your second wind. And I think Demis Hassabis has a similar workday to some extent. So, I think that’s definitely inspired my workday. But yeah, I started this workday when I was at Google, and had to manage a bit of the product during the day, and have meetings, and then do technical work at night.
Lex Fridman
Exercise, sleep, those kinds of things. You said football, you used to play football?
Exercise, sleep, those kinds of things. You said football, you used to play football?
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, I used to play American football. I’ve done all sorts of sports growing up. And then I was into powerlifting for a while. So, when I was studying mathematics in grad school, I would just do math, and lift, take caffeine, and that was my day. It was very pure, the purest of monk modes. But it’s really interesting, how in powerlifting you’re trying to cause neural adaptation by having certain driving signals, and you’re trying to engineer a neuroplasticity through all sorts of supplements, and you have all sorts of brain derived neurotrophic factors that get secreted when you lift.
Yeah, I used to play American football. I’ve done all sorts of sports growing up. And then I was into powerlifting for a while. So, when I was studying mathematics in grad school, I would just do math, and lift, take caffeine, and that was my day. It was very pure, the purest of monk modes. But it’s really interesting, how in powerlifting you’re trying to cause neural adaptation by having certain driving signals, and you’re trying to engineer a neuroplasticity through all sorts of supplements, and you have all sorts of brain derived neurotrophic factors that get secreted when you lift.
So, it’s funny to me how I was trying to engineer a neural adaptation in my nervous system more broadly, not just my brain while learning mathematics. I think you can learn much faster if you really care. If you convince yourself to care a lot about what you’re learning, and you have some sort of assistance, let’s say caffeine, or some cholinergic supplement to increase neuroplasticity. I should chat with Andrew Huberman at some point. He’s the expert. But yeah, at least to me it’s like you can try to input more tokens into your brain, if you will, and you can try to increase the learning rate, so that you can learn much faster on a shorter timescale.
So, I’ve learned a lot of things. I’ve followed my curiosity. You’re naturally… If you’re passionate about what you’re doing, you’re going to learn faster, you’re going to become smarter faster. And if you follow your curiosity, you’re always going to be interested. And so, I advise people to follow their curiosity and don’t respect the boundaries of certain fields, or what you’ve been allocated in terms of lane of what you’re working on. Just go out and explore, and follow your nose, and try to acquire, and compress as much information as you can into your brain. Anything that you find interesting.
Lex Fridman
And caring about a thing. Like you said, which is interesting, it works for me really well, is tricking yourself that you care about a thing.
And caring about a thing. Like you said, which is interesting, it works for me really well, is tricking yourself that you care about a thing.
Guillaume Verdon
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And then you start to really care about it.
And then you start to really care about it.
Guillaume Verdon
Yep.
Yep.
Lex Fridman
So, it’s funny, the motivation is a really good catalyst for learning.
So, it’s funny, the motivation is a really good catalyst for learning.
Guillaume Verdon
Right. And so, at least part of my character, as Beff Jezos is kind of like…
Right. And so, at least part of my character, as Beff Jezos is kind of like…
Lex Fridman
Yeah, hype man.
Yeah, hype man.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, but I’m hyping myself up, but then I just tweet about it, and it’s just when I’m trying to get really hyped up, and an altered state of consciousness where I’m ultra focused, in the flow, wired, trying to invent something that’s never existed, I need to get to unreal levels of excitement. But your brain has these levels of cognition that you can unlock with higher levels of adrenaline, and whatnot. And I mean, I’ve learned that in powerlifting, that actually you can engineer a mental switch to increase your strength. If you can engineer a switch, maybe you have a prompt, like a certain song or some music where suddenly you’re fully primed, then you’re at max, maximum strength. And I’ve engineered that switch through years of lifting. If you’re going to get under 500 pounds and it could crush you, if you don’t have that switch to be wired in, you might die. So, that’ll wake you right up. That sort of skill I’ve carried over to research, when it’s go time, when the stakes are high, somehow I just reach another level of neural performance.
Yeah, but I’m hyping myself up, but then I just tweet about it, and it’s just when I’m trying to get really hyped up, and an altered state of consciousness where I’m ultra focused, in the flow, wired, trying to invent something that’s never existed, I need to get to unreal levels of excitement. But your brain has these levels of cognition that you can unlock with higher levels of adrenaline, and whatnot. And I mean, I’ve learned that in powerlifting, that actually you can engineer a mental switch to increase your strength. If you can engineer a switch, maybe you have a prompt, like a certain song or some music where suddenly you’re fully primed, then you’re at max, maximum strength. And I’ve engineered that switch through years of lifting. If you’re going to get under 500 pounds and it could crush you, if you don’t have that switch to be wired in, you might die. So, that’ll wake you right up. That sort of skill I’ve carried over to research, when it’s go time, when the stakes are high, somehow I just reach another level of neural performance.
Lex Fridman
So Beff Jezos is your sort of embodiment representation of your intellectual Hulk. It’s your productivity Hulk that you just turn on.
So Beff Jezos is your sort of embodiment representation of your intellectual Hulk. It’s your productivity Hulk that you just turn on.
Identity
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
What have you learned about the nature of identity from having these two identities? I think it’s interesting for people, to be able to put on those two hats so explicitly.
What have you learned about the nature of identity from having these two identities? I think it’s interesting for people, to be able to put on those two hats so explicitly.
Guillaume Verdon
I think it was interesting in the early days, I think in the early days, I thought it was truly compartmentalized. Like, “Oh yeah, this is a character. I’m Guillaume. Beff is just the character.” I take my thoughts, and then I extrapolate them to a bit more extreme. But over time, it’s kind of like both identities were starting to merge mentally, and people were like, “No, I met you. You are Beff. You are not just Guillaume.” And I was like, “Wait, am I?” And now it’s fully merged. But it was already, before the docs, it was already starting mentally that I am this character. It’s part of me.
I think it was interesting in the early days, I think in the early days, I thought it was truly compartmentalized. Like, “Oh yeah, this is a character. I’m Guillaume. Beff is just the character.” I take my thoughts, and then I extrapolate them to a bit more extreme. But over time, it’s kind of like both identities were starting to merge mentally, and people were like, “No, I met you. You are Beff. You are not just Guillaume.” And I was like, “Wait, am I?” And now it’s fully merged. But it was already, before the docs, it was already starting mentally that I am this character. It’s part of me.
Lex Fridman
Would you recommend people have an alt?
Would you recommend people have an alt?
Guillaume Verdon
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
Like young people. Would you recommend them to explore different identities by having alts? Alt accounts?
Like young people. Would you recommend them to explore different identities by having alts? Alt accounts?
Guillaume Verdon
It’s fun. It’s like writing an essay, and taking a position, right? It’s like you do this in debate. It’s like you can have experimental thoughts, and by the stakes being so low, because you’re an anon account with, I don’t know, 20 followers or something, you can experiment with your thoughts in a low stakes environment. And I feel like we’ve lost that in the era of everything being under your main name, everything being attributable to you. People just are afraid to speak, explore ideas that aren’t fully formed, and I feel like we’ve lost something there. So, I hope platforms like X and others really help support people trying to stay synonymous, or anonymous, because it’s really important for people to share thoughts that aren’t fully formed, and converge onto maybe hidden truths that were hard to converge upon if it was just through open conversation with real names.
It’s fun. It’s like writing an essay, and taking a position, right? It’s like you do this in debate. It’s like you can have experimental thoughts, and by the stakes being so low, because you’re an anon account with, I don’t know, 20 followers or something, you can experiment with your thoughts in a low stakes environment. And I feel like we’ve lost that in the era of everything being under your main name, everything being attributable to you. People just are afraid to speak, explore ideas that aren’t fully formed, and I feel like we’ve lost something there. So, I hope platforms like X and others really help support people trying to stay synonymous, or anonymous, because it’s really important for people to share thoughts that aren’t fully formed, and converge onto maybe hidden truths that were hard to converge upon if it was just through open conversation with real names.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I really believe in not radical, but rigorous empathy. It’s like really considering what it’s like to be a person of a certain viewpoint, and taking that, as a thought experiment, farther and farther and farther. And one way of doing that as an alt account. That’s a fun, interesting way to really explore what it’s like to be a person that believes a set of beliefs, and taking that across the span of several days, weeks, months. Of course there’s always the danger of becoming that. That’s the Nietzche, “Gaze long into the abyss, the abyss gazes into you.” You have to be careful.
Yeah. I really believe in not radical, but rigorous empathy. It’s like really considering what it’s like to be a person of a certain viewpoint, and taking that, as a thought experiment, farther and farther and farther. And one way of doing that as an alt account. That’s a fun, interesting way to really explore what it’s like to be a person that believes a set of beliefs, and taking that across the span of several days, weeks, months. Of course there’s always the danger of becoming that. That’s the Nietzche, “Gaze long into the abyss, the abyss gazes into you.” You have to be careful.
Guillaume Verdon
Breaking Beff.
Breaking Beff.
Advice for young people
Lex Fridman
Yeah, right. Breaking Beff. Yeah. You wake up with a shaved head one day, just like, “Who am I? What have I become?” So, you’ve mentioned quite a bit of advice already, but what advice would you give to young people of, in this interesting world we’re in, how to have a career and how to have a life they can be proud of?
Yeah, right. Breaking Beff. Yeah. You wake up with a shaved head one day, just like, “Who am I? What have I become?” So, you’ve mentioned quite a bit of advice already, but what advice would you give to young people of, in this interesting world we’re in, how to have a career and how to have a life they can be proud of?
Guillaume Verdon
I think to me, the reason I went to theoretical physics was that I had to learn the base of the stack that was going to stick around no matter how the technology changes. And to me, that was the foundation upon which then I later built engineering skills, and other skills. And to me, the laws of physics, it may seem like the landscape right now is changing so fast, it’s disorienting. But certain things like fundamental mathematics and physics aren’t going to change. And if you have that knowledge, and knowledge about complex systems, and adaptive systems, I think that’s going to carry you very far. And so, not everybody has to study mathematics, but I think it’s really a huge cognitive unlock to learn math, and some physics, and engineering.
I think to me, the reason I went to theoretical physics was that I had to learn the base of the stack that was going to stick around no matter how the technology changes. And to me, that was the foundation upon which then I later built engineering skills, and other skills. And to me, the laws of physics, it may seem like the landscape right now is changing so fast, it’s disorienting. But certain things like fundamental mathematics and physics aren’t going to change. And if you have that knowledge, and knowledge about complex systems, and adaptive systems, I think that’s going to carry you very far. And so, not everybody has to study mathematics, but I think it’s really a huge cognitive unlock to learn math, and some physics, and engineering.
Lex Fridman
Get as close to the base of the stack as possible.
Get as close to the base of the stack as possible.
Guillaume Verdon
Yeah, that’s right. Because the base of the stack doesn’t change. Everything else… Your knowledge might become not as relevant in a few years. Of course there’s a sort of transfer learning you can do, but then you have to always transfer learn, constantly.
Yeah, that’s right. Because the base of the stack doesn’t change. Everything else… Your knowledge might become not as relevant in a few years. Of course there’s a sort of transfer learning you can do, but then you have to always transfer learn, constantly.
Lex Fridman
I guess the closer you are to the base of the stack, the easier the transfer learning, the shorter the jump.
I guess the closer you are to the base of the stack, the easier the transfer learning, the shorter the jump.
Guillaume Verdon
Right, right. And you’d be surprised, once you’ve learned concepts in many physical scenarios, how they can carry over to understanding other systems that aren’t necessarily physics. And I guess the e/acc writings, the principles and tenet posts, that was based on physics, that was kind of my experimentation with applying some of the thinking from out of [inaudible 02:45:36] thermodynamics to understanding the world around us, and it’s led to e/acc, and this movement.
Right, right. And you’d be surprised, once you’ve learned concepts in many physical scenarios, how they can carry over to understanding other systems that aren’t necessarily physics. And I guess the e/acc writings, the principles and tenet posts, that was based on physics, that was kind of my experimentation with applying some of the thinking from out of [inaudible 02:45:36] thermodynamics to understanding the world around us, and it’s led to e/acc, and this movement.
Mortality
Lex Fridman
If you look at you’re one cog in the machine, in the capitalist machine, one human, and if you look at yourself, do you think mortality is a feature or a bug? Would you want to be immortal?
If you look at you’re one cog in the machine, in the capitalist machine, one human, and if you look at yourself, do you think mortality is a feature or a bug? Would you want to be immortal?
Guillaume Verdon
No, I think fundamentally, in thermodynamic dissipative adaptation, there’s the word dissipation. Dissipation is important, death is important. We have a saying in physics, physics progresses one funeral at a time.
No, I think fundamentally, in thermodynamic dissipative adaptation, there’s the word dissipation. Dissipation is important, death is important. We have a saying in physics, physics progresses one funeral at a time.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Guillaume Verdon
I think the same is true for capitalism. Companies, empires, people, everything. Everything must die at some point. I think that we should probably extend our lifespan, because we need a longer period of training, because the world is more and more complex. We have more and more data to really be able to predict and understand the world. And if we have a finite window of higher neuroplasticity, then we have sort of a hard cap in how much we can understand about our world. So, I think I am for death, because again, I think it’s important. If you have a king that would never die, that would be a problem. The system wouldn’t be constantly adapting, right?
I think the same is true for capitalism. Companies, empires, people, everything. Everything must die at some point. I think that we should probably extend our lifespan, because we need a longer period of training, because the world is more and more complex. We have more and more data to really be able to predict and understand the world. And if we have a finite window of higher neuroplasticity, then we have sort of a hard cap in how much we can understand about our world. So, I think I am for death, because again, I think it’s important. If you have a king that would never die, that would be a problem. The system wouldn’t be constantly adapting, right?
You need novelty, you need youth, you need disruption to make sure the system’s always adapting, and malleable. Otherwise, if things are immortal, if you have, let’s say corporations that are there forever, and they have the monopoly, they get calcified, they become not as optimal, not as high fitness in a changing, time varying landscape. And so, death gives space for youth and novelty to take its place. And I think it’s an important part of every system in nature. So yeah, I am for death, but I do think that longer lifespan, and longer time for neuroplasticity, bigger brains should be something we should strive for.
Lex Fridman
Well, and that, Jeff Bezos, and Beff Jezos agree that all companies die. And for Jeff, the goal is to try to, he calls it day one thinking, try to constantly, for as long as possible, reinvent, sort of extend the life of the company. But eventually it too will die, because it’s so difficult to keep reinventing. Are you afraid of your own death?
Well, and that, Jeff Bezos, and Beff Jezos agree that all companies die. And for Jeff, the goal is to try to, he calls it day one thinking, try to constantly, for as long as possible, reinvent, sort of extend the life of the company. But eventually it too will die, because it’s so difficult to keep reinventing. Are you afraid of your own death?
Guillaume Verdon
I think I have ideas and things I’d like to achieve in this world before I have to go, but I don’t think I’m necessarily afraid of death.
I think I have ideas and things I’d like to achieve in this world before I have to go, but I don’t think I’m necessarily afraid of death.
Lex Fridman
So you’re not attached to this particular body, and mind that you got?
So you’re not attached to this particular body, and mind that you got?
Guillaume Verdon
No, I’m sure there’s going to be better versions of myself in the future, or…
No, I’m sure there’s going to be better versions of myself in the future, or…
Lex Fridman
Forks?
Forks?
Guillaume Verdon
Forks, right? Genetic forks, or other, right? I truly believe that. I think there’s a sort of evolutionary-like algorithm happening at every bit, or [inaudible 02:49:03] in the world is sort of adapting through this process that we described in e/acc. And I think maintaining this adaptation malleability is how we have constant optimization of the whole machine. And so, I don’t think I’m particularly an optimum that needs to stick around forever. I think there’s going to be greater optima in many ways.
Forks, right? Genetic forks, or other, right? I truly believe that. I think there’s a sort of evolutionary-like algorithm happening at every bit, or [inaudible 02:49:03] in the world is sort of adapting through this process that we described in e/acc. And I think maintaining this adaptation malleability is how we have constant optimization of the whole machine. And so, I don’t think I’m particularly an optimum that needs to stick around forever. I think there’s going to be greater optima in many ways.
Meaning of life
Lex Fridman
What do you think is the meaning of it all? What’s the why of the machine? The e/acc machine?
What do you think is the meaning of it all? What’s the why of the machine? The e/acc machine?
Guillaume Verdon
The why? Well, the why is thermodynamics. It’s why we’re here. It’s what has led to the formation of life, and of civilization, of evolution of technologies, and growth of civilization. But why do we have thermodynamics? Why do we have our particular universe? Why do we have these particular hyper-parameters, the constants of nature? Well then you get into the anthropic principle, and the landscape of potential universes, right? We’re in the universe that allows for life. And then why, is there potentially many universes? I don’t know. I don’t know that part. But could we potentially engineer new universes, or create pocket universes, and set the hyper-parameters so there is some mutual information between our existence in that universe, and we’d be somewhat its parents? I think that’s really… I don’t know, that’d be very poetic. It’s purely conjecture. But again, this is why figuring out quantum gravity would allow us to understand if we can do that.
The why? Well, the why is thermodynamics. It’s why we’re here. It’s what has led to the formation of life, and of civilization, of evolution of technologies, and growth of civilization. But why do we have thermodynamics? Why do we have our particular universe? Why do we have these particular hyper-parameters, the constants of nature? Well then you get into the anthropic principle, and the landscape of potential universes, right? We’re in the universe that allows for life. And then why, is there potentially many universes? I don’t know. I don’t know that part. But could we potentially engineer new universes, or create pocket universes, and set the hyper-parameters so there is some mutual information between our existence in that universe, and we’d be somewhat its parents? I think that’s really… I don’t know, that’d be very poetic. It’s purely conjecture. But again, this is why figuring out quantum gravity would allow us to understand if we can do that.
Lex Fridman
And above that, why does it all seems so beautiful and exciting? The quest to figuring out quantum gravity seems so exciting. Why? Why is that? Why are we drawn to that? Why are we pulled towards that? Just that puzzle solving creative force that underpins all of it, it seems like.
And above that, why does it all seems so beautiful and exciting? The quest to figuring out quantum gravity seems so exciting. Why? Why is that? Why are we drawn to that? Why are we pulled towards that? Just that puzzle solving creative force that underpins all of it, it seems like.
Guillaume Verdon
I think we seek, just like an LLM seats to minimize cross entropy between its internal model and the world, we seek to minimize… Yeah, the statistical divergence between our predictions and the world, and the world itself. And having regimes of energy scales, or physical scales in which we have no visibility, no ability to predict, or perceive, that’s kind of an insult to us. And we want to be able to understand the world better in order to best steer it, or steer us through it.
I think we seek, just like an LLM seats to minimize cross entropy between its internal model and the world, we seek to minimize… Yeah, the statistical divergence between our predictions and the world, and the world itself. And having regimes of energy scales, or physical scales in which we have no visibility, no ability to predict, or perceive, that’s kind of an insult to us. And we want to be able to understand the world better in order to best steer it, or steer us through it.
And in general, it’s a capability that has evolved because the better you can predict the world, the better you can capture utility, or free energy towards your own sustenance and growth. And I think quantum gravity, again, is kind of the final boss, in terms of knowledge acquisition, because once we’ve mastered that, then we can do a lot, potentially. But between here and there, I think there’s a lot to learn in the meso scales. There’s a lot of information to acquire about our world, and a lot of engineering perception, prediction, and control to be done, to climb up the Carta shift scale. And to us, that’s the great challenge of our times.
Lex Fridman
And when you’re not sure where to go, let the meme pave the way.
And when you’re not sure where to go, let the meme pave the way.
Guillaume Verdon
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
Guillaume, Beff, thank you for talking today. Thank you for the work you’re doing. Thank you for the humor, and the wisdom you put into the world. This was awesome.
Guillaume, Beff, thank you for talking today. Thank you for the work you’re doing. Thank you for the humor, and the wisdom you put into the world. This was awesome.
Guillaume Verdon
Thank you so much for having me, Lex, It’s a pleasure.
Thank you so much for having me, Lex, It’s a pleasure.
Lex Fridman
Thank you for listening to this conversation with Guillaume Verdon. To support this podcast. Please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Albert Einstein. “If at first the idea is not absurd, then there is no hope for it.” Thank you for listening. I hope to see you next time.
Thank you for listening to this conversation with Guillaume Verdon. To support this podcast. Please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Albert Einstein. “If at first the idea is not absurd, then there is no hope for it.” Thank you for listening. I hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Teddy Atlas: Mike Tyson, Cus D’Amato, Boxing, Loyalty, Fear & Greatness | Lex Fridman Podcast #406
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #406 with Teddy Atlas.
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Table of Contents
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The following is a conversation with Teddy Atlas, a legendary and, at times, controversial boxing trainer and commentator. When I was going to this conversation with Teddy, I was ready to talk boxing, styles, matches, techniques, tactics, and his analysis of individual fighters, like Mike Tyson, Michael Moorer, Klitschkos, Usyk, Povetkin, Lomachenko, Triple G, Canelo, Muhammad Ali, Sugar Ray Leonard, Hagler, Duran, Floyd, and on and on and on. Like I said, I came ready to talk boxing, but I stayed for something even bigger, the Shakespearian human story of Teddy Atlas, Cus D’Amato, and Mike Tyson.
It’s a story about loyalty, betrayal, fear, and greatness. It’s a story where nobody is perfect and everybody is human. To summarize, in the early ’80s, young trainer, Teddy Atlas, worked with his mentor, Cus D’Amato, in training the young boxing protégé, now a boxing legend, Mike Tyson. Mike was a troubled youth, arrested over 40 times, and at age 15, he was sexually inappropriate with Teddy’s 11-year-old niece.
In response to this, Teddy put a .38 caliber handgun to Tyson’s ear and told him to never touch his family again or he would kill him if he did. For this Cus D’Amato kicked Teddy out. Why? Well, that’s complicated. In part, I think, to help minimize the chance of Mike Tyson, who Cus legally adopted, will be taken away by the state, and with him the dream of developing one of the greatest boxers of all time.
Of course, that summary doesn’t capture the full complexity of human nature and human drama involved here. For that, you have to listen to this conversation, the things said and the things left unsaid. The pain in Teddy’s voice, the contradictions of love and anger that permeate his stories and his philosophy on life. Like I said, I came to talk about boxing and stayed to talk about life.
This conversation will stay with me for a long time. The people close to you, the people you trust, the people you love, are everything. And if they betray you and break your heart, forgive them, forgive yourself and try again. Happy holidays, everyone. I love you all.
This is a Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Teddy Atlas.
You wrote in the book that your father had a big influence on your life. What lessons have you learned about life from your father?
And so I went on house calls with him. And he did house calls, by the way, till he was 80, and $3. I mean, it was better than McDonald’s, you know what I mean? I mean, the deal, $3 and you got medicine, you got everything. But he used to, right around the holidays, there was just certain things that I didn’t understand, but I understood later, where we would just drive certain areas and he just, all of a sudden, open the door, he would pick up these… and-
And, of course, their sickness was, they were alcoholics. “but ,why do you put them…?” It wasn’t an alcohol rehab, so why are you putting… And it wasn’t for the purpose to dry out. He wasn’t trying to cure them. Let’s put that before we anoint him for sainthood, by Teddy Atlas. I was like, we finally get to the point, “Why do you put them in there?” “Well, because it’s the holidays.”
“All right, why do you put them in there?” “Well, the holidays are good for certain people and bad for others.” And it was always before the holidays. It was before Christmas, it was before whatever, New Year’s, whatever. So I said, “Why?” And he said, “Because they remind people, certain people, of what they don’t have. Other people enjoy the holidays because of what they have, family, whatever, and it reminds them, their mind is that.”
When he used to drop them off, he would take them, get them in, right? And then the thing that I know, again, he didn’t say nothing, but you notice things. And if you care enough, you don’t notice nothing if you don’t care. But if you can, if it’s important, you notice. And this guy was important to me. I just was, I didn’t know what a hero was, no clue. I loved Mickey Mantle, I loved Willie Mays, I love Muhammad Ali. I never, ever connected them in my mind as heroes. Never. My father, I didn’t connect it that way, but he-
I always wondered where he was. I did. So I asked him one day. And just, so we’re driving, I said, I want to know so I said, “Dad, what do you think when you’re basically in this place, that I know you’re somewhere? Where are you? What are you seeing?” I actually said, “What do you see?” And he said to me, “I see what could be. I see what could be.” And I’m like, “Oh, all right.”
The funny thing was, down the hill was a very tough neighborhood called Stapleton. And most of the people down there on the corners wished they could get up the hill, and I wished I could get down the hill. So I went down the hill and I hung out with all these friends that became lifelong friends. I gravitated to that, because I figured out later a little bit, but I wanted family. We were destroying the family. My father was a doctor, he didn’t have time for nothing but being a doctor.
I think when you created something, you sacrifice something, too. When you’re really great at something, so great that maybe God made you great and you’re too great for your own good. And then, I don’t know, it took me to these stupid, dangerous places. Dangerous for me, but dangerous for other people, too. Because, I got to the point where I was doing robberies on the street, I was fighting everybody.
And you know what the most dangerous part about it was? And I came to this realization on my own. I’m all by myself. I figured out, I was really as dangerous… These kids from the project, some of them, they got nothing. First of all, I learned you don’t have to be poor to be poor. You don’t have to be deprived of certain things to be deprived, at least to think you’re deprived. And I was poor in away that I didn’t have the only thing I wanted to have, him.
So here I am where I’m out there doing these things, and what made me more, I was more dangerous than some of these psychopaths. Well, I was a psychopath, too, I guess, the way I was behaving. But some of these psychopaths that really had nothing, really, they obviously would kill you. I was dangerous almost in the same way, but for a different reason. I know it’s ridiculous what I’m about to tell you, but I figured it out, because I felt it. I thought I was on a righteous path. I thought I had a right because it was going to get me my father back.
Why? Why? I mean, you’re a scientist, you couldn’t figure this one out. Because all the people that had him were injured people, fractured people, screwed up people in some ways, but hurt, damaged people. So if I get damaged, I’ll get him. So I was on a crusade, really, a righteous crusade where I thought it was okay. I had permission. I had permission to do these terrible things, quite frankly, and to fight everyone wanted to. And then it came almost to a crash of doing all that, winding up in Rikers Island like an idiot, not understanding the damage I did to this poor man, that he was a great doctor and he’s got to see his son and hear about, you know what I mean?
God, I was out on that day with the guys that I grew up with now, the guys from the projects from as I described, and I was with one of them who, he’s dead now. I was with him and we were in a neighborhood, the neighborhood we grew up, that I hung out, and he grew up in. Billy, he came from the project. And we got into a thing where we cut, somebody cut us off, we cut them off, jumped out to fight. Turned out there’s five or six of them and two of us. And we fought, right on the side, right there, only about a block from where I used to hang out, and maybe a block and a half.
And right in front of this Spanish bodega. It really does happen in slow motion. I actually saw the guy, I was fighting the guys that I had to fight. And then, all of a sudden, I was able to get one guy out of the way a little bit. And I really, I noticed the guy go into his pocket and I knew why he was going in his pocket. When he came out of his pocket, I knew what it was right away. It was weird, because in the neighborhood, guys used to hang out, they were into this… They get into fads right on the streets. And at that time, they went into this cheap knife, but they thought it was, well, we thought it was cool. It was a 007.
And the cool thing, whatever, was that you could flick it, you could learn. And I learned how to flick, but I never carried a knife. But, my friends would have it. I would just, you learn how you could flick it open, not a switchblade, but flick it with your wrist. And I was like, here I am in the middle of this freaking fight, and all of a sudden, “Oh, this is a 007.” And so I’m like, you got to make a decision. And I got a split, I can either not do nothing, which didn’t seem like a great option. I couldn’t run away.
And I was like, “Yeah, I got a lot of friends.” He goes, “Really?” I said, “Yeah, really.” He said, “How about if I told you you might not have any. Most likely you don’t have any.” And he goes, and then he just started this thing. He said, “Everyone’s going to be tested, you, me, everyone, because you don’t know about nobody until they’re tested.” He goes, “You know nothing.” He goes, “You nothing until you know. Until something happens to test if they were really your friend.” And he told me this story about a guy.
A guy came to him and he was upset. “What are you upset about?” He goes, “I’m upset because I just lost a friend. After 20 years of friendship, we’re not friends no more.” So Cus looks at him, he goes, “Let me ask you a question. What made you think you were ever friends with him?” Now the guy gets insulted to Cus. “Did you hear me?” He goes, “I just told you 20 years I’ve been friends with this guy. Why would you say that to me?”
He said, “Well, I’ll say it again. What makes you think he was your friend?” He goes, “Whatever happened in the 20 years, other than chasing girls,” because Cus figured that went out fast, “… chasing girls and drinking together, and whatever else you’re doing out on the street, whatever gave you the inclination that he was a friend?” He goes, “Whatever, when did he risk himself to be your friend? When was it dangerous to be your friend?”
So anyway, they take me to the hospital. And here’s the thing with my father. But one thing Billy did do for me when he got off the roof, thank God, he did, he dragged me into this bodega, laid me on the floor, and started putting towels. And the towels, I vaguely remember this, they filled up with blood. I mean completely drenched, like you put them under a shower. And I heard the bodega owner screaming, screaming like… whatever. And everyone’s screaming and there’s chaos, and I’m like, I don’t know, I’m calm. Weird, I’m real calm. I’m just in this place, things calm.
And all of a sudden I hear Billy, he’s screaming, ” Call the ambulance, call the…,” and nobody’s doing nothing, everyone’s frozen. I’m starting to understand already people get frozen in situations. People, the fear, fear, fear, fear, fear just paralyzes people. And I was going into a fear business. I was learning. I was learning. I was getting a learning, early PhD-
So anyway, so they’re taking me to the… And he said, “We don’t have time.” I hear, couple things I remember, “Don’t have time. Take him to…” and they take me to US Public Health Hospital. Marine Hospital was called at the time, but US Public Health. And it’s in Stapleton, so it’s close, thank God. So they’re taking me, and I hear them on the radio saying this stuff about, “We got to move. We got to move.” I start talking and they’re telling me, “Don’t talk.” But I like to talk a lot. And I’m… Again, fear.” There’s no fear when the fear’s been removed.
It’s the only time you really free in life. And I know that sounds absurd, but really, it is. It’s the only time you’re really free in life. When you’re-
The testimony goes, ” Your Honor, I realize you might not know much about me, but I spent my whole life developing young men. As a boxing manager I trained two world champions, heavyweight champion Floyd Patterson and light heavyweight champion Jose Torres. I’ve also helped a lot of other young boys straighten out their lives and build character. I know things about Teddy Atlas this court doesn’t know, things you won’t find on his arrest record. This boy has character. He has loyalty. He’ll hurt himself before he’ll let down a friend. These qualities are rare and they shouldn’t be lost. He’s made mistakes. We’ve all made mistakes, but I’ve come to know this boy, and if we lose him, we’ll be losing someone who could help a lot of people. Please don’t take this young boy’s future away. He could be someone special. Let’s not lose him. Please.” Those are powerful words from a powerful man. What have you learned about life from Mr. Cus D’Amato?
I also learned from him that everyone’s afraid. Cus, his way of saying it, another great saying, you’ll get a kick out of this, “Anyone who’s in a situation where fear should be prevalent, where fear is actually necessary to survive the situation, anyone who says that they’re not afraid, they’re one of two things. They’re either a liar or they should go to a doctor, find out what the frick’s wrong with them.” He was right about that. We live in a taboo society where that word, to a certain extent, is taboo because it invokes weakness. We are just layers of what we saw and learned since we were kids. We all are. We’re products of those layers. I learned that on my own and through some help.
At the end of the day, fear, people will find their way of avoiding that term. So they use the word anxiety, they use the word butterflies, apprehension, a million different words. I find all those other words to be cousins of fear. And fear causes a lot of things in life. It causes a lot of problems and it also solves a lot of problems. Without it, we couldn’t be great if we are great, if we ever have a chance to be great or at least to aspire to be great.
An old man once told me, he said to me… I was trying to rationalize something. I was trying to make an excuse for something. I was trying to make myself better than I was. I was trying to say it was okay. And he just looked at me, and he liked me, and he said, “Teddy, there ain’t no such thing as being a little pregnant.” I was like, “Yeah.” He goes, “Either you’re pregnant or you’re not pregnant. Either you’re real or you’re not real. Either you’re truthful or you’re not truthful. Either you’re tough or you’re not tough. Either you’re committed or you’re not committed. Either you’re in or you’re out.”
“Okay. Now, you’re going to have to get hurt here.” “What do you mean, get hurt?” “Oh, well, it’s going to be painful. I mean, to be loyal, you’re going to be in danger because the person that you committed your loyalty to, for a reason, because obviously you did something in your life, whatever, whatever, you’re actually going to get hurt to be loyal to them. You’re actually going to…” “Hold on a minute. Wait. Hold on a minute, Coach. Hold on. Call time out here. Let me think about this, Coach. I might need more practice. I’m not ready for the game. I’m not ready to go in the game yet. Give me a little more practice, Coach.” It hurts to be loyal. It fricking hurts. But without loyalty, we’re ghost ships. We got no strength. We got nothing. We got nothing. We got nothing.
And these cops, they were nasty, but they were cops. They were, “You’re going to wind up in Rikers and they’re going to be doing this to you.” And I won’t even say the things because, then, why say them? Figure it out. But they’re trying to get what they’re trying to get. And, “You want to change it?” And, “No.” But I felt very betrayed and especially when I was standing in the cell at Rikers looking at the airplanes leave LaGuardia Airport. And then hoping I was on one. I was making a deal with God that, “Let me be on one of those planes and let it crash. I’ll take a shot.”
And he had it set up a little bit, whatever. Without getting into it, hey, he did me a favor. I’d like to think he knew he was doing me a favor. And you know what? I do think he was. He was doing himself a little bit one too. But he was doing it for the greater course because he believed in this thing of boxing. He believed that it changed lives. He believed that it was worthwhile. He believed that there was a power to it beyond the left hook.
And he saw something, and all of a sudden he saw that my career as a boxer was less important than having me become his heir to the throne and becoming his trainer, his man, his guy, to continue, that we could do a lot more for him and for everyone. Not just for him but for everyone. It was more like to keep it going. It couldn’t die. It couldn’t die. Cus was afraid it would die with him. And he committed his whole life to it. He didn’t get married because of boxing. So he saw me as the little bit of the seed to plant for more things to grow before that plant died. And so all of a sudden he says, “You can’t fight.” I had people tell me that I could go somewhere else and fight. And I could, but I couldn’t because I’d be disloyal.
So we go on this venture. Took a minute, because I didn’t believe him at first, but finally I am, I’m there, I’m training fighters. Then he gets me to buy in, and I was a teacher. I start teaching these kids, and there’s no one in the gym. It’s dead. And all of a sudden there’s 10 kids, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45. Catskill Boxing Club, which was never there. Now it’s there. And I’m training fighters. I’m taking them down to South Bronx to get experience, one of his former fighters, Nelson Cuevas, down to South Bronx. I’m taking him down there to get smokers, to get fights when they’re ready after I teach.
I’m wearing out dungarees. I’m getting holes in my dungarees. I was fashionable for it was fashionable to have holes in my dungarees. I could have made a lot of money with that because I was on my knees with these little kids, nine years old, 10 years old, eight years old, 10, 12, 13, 14, all these kids. I’m teaching them and I’m building a gym. Cus only came once a week because he was semi-retired, and he’s home. When he would come once a week, he knew he couldn’t give me money, but he gave me more than money. He gave me praise. And he said, “Look what Atlas is doing. He’s creating champions.” And I was like, “Whoa. Yeah. Wow. I’m doing good.”
And then all of a sudden after four years of that, because I was up there seven years, eight years, eight years, after about three and a half, four years of that, we get a phone call that they got this kid in prison, in Tryon prison, from one of the guys that knew Cus, Matt Baranski. There’s a correction officer named Bobby Stewart who used to box, and Cus had helped him out a little bit. A little bit. They knew we had this gym. Now that was really starting to become something because we were winning tournaments and everything else. They go, ” We got this kid, Mike Tyson. He’s 12 years old, he’s 190 pounds, and he’s a mess. But Bobby Stewart got involved with him, the former fighter, and he’s taken a liking to it. And now where he didn’t behave at all and he didn’t listen to anyone, now he’s listening because Bobby’s got a carrot and the carrot is he’d teach him boxing. And now he’s at the point now where we want you to take a look, you and Teddy.” “All right. Bring him down.”
So we do, we put him in. Tyson, he recognized the moment. He understood this was an audition, this was a chance. This was that TV show, Change Your Life. He understood that if he passed the audition, he could possibly change his life. He wasn’t sure what. How could he be sure what exactly? But it was better than what he had. And so he was on audition. So he innately understood what we would want to see: ferocious, toughness, character, desire, and, of course, ability. Well, we saw the ability, power, speed, but it was unbridled. It was untaught. It was raw. He didn’t know really much at all. At all. But we saw that.
But he wanted to show more. He knew that wasn’t enough. Again, innate intelligence. He had to show desire. He had to show toughness. And so I was being responsible. After two rounds, that’s enough. Normally, I don’t put a guy in to box until maybe four months, five months, six months, eight months, 10. It depends what it takes to learn on the floor before it’s responsible to put them in the ring to actually take on incoming real live shells instead of blanks. And so normally I wouldn’t have him in. And I knew after today, he wouldn’t be in the ring again if I trained him. I would teach him first and then he’d get back in in a few months. But for this day, it was the only way.
I used to make this announcement and Cus loved it. He said, “What’s training a fighter? What do you look for training a fighter, Teddy?” He asked me these ridiculous questions just to test me. And I say, “It’s like going to Macy’s…” Oh, he loved it. I said, “It’s like go to Macy’s window on Christmas.” He goes, “What do you mean, Macy’s window?” Cus was like, boom, boom, boom. So, “What do you mean, Macy’s window?” “You go to Macy’s window and they got the window with everything you want to see, everything in there. And it looks great, everything.” “Yeah? And then what?” “Well, then you ask, ‘What’s in the warehouse?’ and they tell you, ‘Nothing.'” And then Cus says, “That’s it. That’s the trainer.” And I wanted to see what was in the warehouse. Because I saw what was in Macy’s window. I saw the power, I saw the speed.
So he goes two rounds and he gets a bloody nose. Here’s the weird thing, not weird, very telling. We knew what we were doing. I’m not bragging, but we knew what we were doing because he got a bloody nose because he got hit. After that, he never got another bloody nose. You know why? He didn’t get hit. Because he learned. He was still strong, but he was smarter now. Anyway, he goes two rounds, and I saw, and I’m being responsible because if he goes more, it’s not responsible. I saw what I needed to see. I saw speed, I saw power, I saw athleticism. And I saw, I didn’t believe him. I thought he was lying to me. I’m just telling you. I thought he was lying, trying to act tough when he wasn’t really feeling tough. It didn’t matter.
Cus questioned me on it afterwards, “What did you see?” And when I said it, he goes, “Young master.” Again, he wasn’t paying me money so he had to give me something, right? And that was currency. “Young master.” I’m the young master? Whoa. “Young master.” You know what I mean? I felt like that guy, Kung Fu, like in the movie, like Kung Fu, “Grasshopper, when you’re ready, when can take this out of my hand, you can leave.” And-
So I get up there and I know that I’m going to be training him. I got to show him who the boss is. I’m being really frank about this. So I get up there, I say, “That’s it. Out.” “No, no,” this is Tyson, “No, let me go. I want to do another round. I want to do another one.” “I said out. Did you hear what I said?” Because I knew that he was going to test me. He was testing me. I said, “I said get out.” He got out.
And he said, “You’re right.” He goes, “Now it’s going to be your job to teach him, to make him a fighter that don’t get bloody noses, that don’t get hit and will get to that place without being chorused to get there, to get to that place on his own, instead of using the things that he had to use to get to that place today. Those things are not going to be available one day when you…” And listen to this. You talk about a man being prophetic. Cus was pretty good. You talk about a man being on the job, on the money, Lex. How do you think he finishes the sentence? He goes, “Because you’re going to have to make sure that he learns these things because he’ll be your first heavyweight champ.” “What did you just say?”
He’s 12 years old. He’s been arrested 30 times. He’s getting out of jail, out of juvenile detention, Tryon. He’s a mess in a lot of ways. There’s a lot of things we find out later, a lot of problems, weaknesses. He goes, “And that’s part of your job. That’ll be part of your job.” But he really said that. And then he turned to him, he goes, “You want to come live with us, young man? You want to be a fighter?” “Yes.” Even that, Cus said to me later, “What do you think about that?” I said-
That’s why when it all went bad and Cus took the side, the only side he could take, the side of the next heavyweight champ of the world, but he left me, his partner, the young master… And for the second time I get betrayed. And I’m like, for a while I thought everything Cus taught me, said to me was a lie, and I didn’t want to be any part of it anymore until I got a little more mature and I got a little past that where I was able to understand. I was able to understand that just because somebody that you perceived as great in every area you find to be weak in certain areas doesn’t mean that they can’t still be what they want to you. It’s something that can be understood or forgiven.
But yeah, it’s hard. It’s hard to get to that place, to forgive somebody in that kind of way that I felt betrayed. Because Cus told me the most important thing was loyalty. Cus told me he loved me because I was loyal. Cus told people that the reason that he went to court was because I didn’t give up anybody.
And so that helped me figure out how to forgive Cus because to figure out how to forgive me, I had to understood why I did these things. Where the weaknesses came from, where the selfishness came from, where the convenience came from. That they really existed. But they didn’t exist for malice, they existed for me not being prepared to understand that I could be stronger, to want to be stronger. And then I looked at Cus. He wanted to be stronger, but he got to a point in life where he had been strong for a lot of his life. He was strong with me, he was strong with a lot of things in his life. And does everyone deserve a pass in life?
He got to a place where everything was in one basket, the basket of boxing. He once told me that he never got married because it would’ve been selfish to a woman to have gotten married when his whole life was boxing. That he couldn’t give to her kid, he couldn’t give to her. And then I thought about it. He had no money, really. And Jim Jacobs and Bill Caden took care of the bills, so he didn’t really need money that way. But what was the payoff of that kind of life, that kind of commitment, that kind of sacrifice? Really, what was the payoff? The payoff was to have champions. To have a champion that would keep your name alive.
That word legacy, what does it mean? Sometimes it’s just a word, sometimes it’s more than a word. It’s a reprieve. It’s a pension plan. It’s being given a pension on your way out for the rest of your life, for your life wherever you’re going. You’re going to wherever you’re going for eternity. It’s the only thing that you take with you, is what you left behind. And for Cus it was all about leaving behind a mark. A mark of a champion. Yeah, it was attached to ego. We all have it. Yeah, it was attached to some selfishness and all. But yeah, it was also attached to wanting to leave something great behind.
He answered me. He said, “There was a patient. There was a sick patient.” I said, ” He must be better now because you’re his doctor,” because my father could fix anything. My father, nothing got in the way of the truth. Nothing. Nothing. Even blowing his son’s bubble. Matter-of-factly he said to me, “No, he’s not going to get better. He’s going to die.” So as a 9-year-old kid, you’re a kid, you’re selfish, not in a bad way but you want what you… and I said two things. First I said, “How? You’re his doctor. How? It can’t be.” And then I said, I said it almost angry, “Then why were you there? You should’ve been here with me.”
He was in the middle of 12 steps with the getting out of drugs, alcohol, 12 steps, which is a commemorable thing. Really, it is. And he’s taking the steps. Part of the steps was to admit all, to apologize to all people you offended in life. Okay. But are you doing it for the 12 steps or are you doing it because you really truly have come to terms with believing what you did was that hurtful to me, and that it matters to you that it was that hurtful to me, and that you were wrong in doing in it? Did you do it for… I know that’s deep. I know that I’m a freaking idiot. “Teddy, you should be better than that. He’s better than you.” Yeah, maybe he is better than me. Maybe he is. Really. Seriously, maybe he is. And I took it. He put his hand out. I took it. We hugged. He said, “I love you.”
Yeah. Yeah. But I want to believe. But what did Cus tell me? “No matter what a man says, it’s what he does in the end that he intended to do all along.” So to this day today, was it really genuine or was it reflexive of that moment for him to get what he needed for that step? Or was it truly for what I needed? That he really cared that what he did to me caused me to do what I did. Because I did something that was pretty bad to him, too. Is he able to deal with that and put that where it has to be put? Is he able to put that? Or is it just he did something he had to do and maybe he’s sorry he did it? Look, I appreciated that he… I would it’d rather been in a private place.
And then one day I tried to figure it out. Why do I feel this way? It’s so intense. I was in camp for two months training a guy for the world title a few years ago, fighting the hardest puncher in the world at the time, Adonis Stevenson, and the fighter was Ukrainian. And I was brought in to train him for that fight, and he trusted me and changed his whole style. Trusted me. Oh my God. I went to bed every night praying, dread. Waking up, dread. My stomach down to here. Saying, “What if I fail? What if everything that I told him was going to happen don’t happen? What if I fail him? What if he trusted me and I betrayed that trust?”
And the thing with Cus was he used to be stronger than that. And then I tried to figure it out, why I got this way and why it was so dreadful to me, and why I felt like I was on death row every day training a fighter. Like, “Did I do enough? Did I do right? Will we accomplish what I promised him we would accomplish? Would I keep my word?” And then I started thinking, how did I become this weak? How did I freaking become… I was a pretty strong freaking guy. How did I become this weak? And then finally I think I figured it out. You know why?
And to have that, it was okay to die now. And how’s loyalty to someone named Teddy Atlas going to get in the way of that? That’s a tidal wave that there ain’t no wall that’s been made high enough to stop that tidal wave. And now I’ll stop myself. Yeah, there is, but it would have to be an awful big one. And you know what? Who are we to say that we could ever build that wall that big? Who is any of us? Who am I to say?
And then all of a sudden Cus couldn’t give in. He just couldn’t admit. He couldn’t give in. You know what he said to me? All of a sudden he goes, “When I was in the Army, if I had a compass I could get out of the woods.” I said, “We’re not in the woods, we’re not in the Army. We don’t have a compass. Cus! Cus!” “Just don’t argue with me!”
One time we’re driving. I want to get back to Catskill. We just finished at the Bronx. It’s been a long day visiting the Murderers Inc. houses and everything else that he took me through for the 1,800th time. And he would fall asleep. He was getting older and he would just fall asleep in the car. So what do you think? I went a little faster, because before he went to sleep he said, “Don’t speed.” I don’t consider myself… I try to be an honest guy and I try to be a freaking…
So I said, “What are you talking? How do you know?” He goes, “Because I timed you. I looked at the post number.” And I’m like, “What?” “I looked at the post number on the side of the road where we were,” whatever mile. And I never knew they even existed. I look and I said, “Yeah, there’s little numbers.”
I don’t know if there was ever as good a fighter as Tyson was, where maybe one night he was great where he wasn’t tested but he might’ve been ready to be tested. That one night against Michael Spinks when he took him apart in 90 seconds, I think I saw a great fighter that night. I don’t think you can be great unless you have all the requirements of being great.
And to be able to find a way when your talent wasn’t enough. He didn’t find a way when his talent wasn’t enough. And I’m not making statements if I’m not ready to put some evidence. Like if we were in a courtroom, exhibit A: when he fought Buster Douglas, Buster Douglas matched his will and didn’t get intimidated. Stood up to him. He didn’t do what most people did. He didn’t submit even a little bit. Not that night. He had in the past, but that night he didn’t.
Why? Because Buster had a secret weapon that night, his mother. Buster’s mother had died a few months previous. He loved his mother very much. Buster had always had talent. Big heavyweight, talented, could punch, technically solid. He was all those things, always was, but he quit in fights. He did less than he should’ve done. He never lived up to his ability. He gave in. He submitted. He wasn’t strong enough. He never had a reason to be strong enough. When his mother died, he had a reason. Nothing could hurt him as much as his mother dying hurt him, Mike Tyson included.
That night Mike Tyson could not hurt him as much as his mother had hurt him by dying. That night he had a reason to be strong, for his mother, and he was strong. He was everything he was supposed to be and more. And he stood up to Mike, and Mike, for the first time maybe ever, was in a fight where he had to overcome something, where he had to be more than talented, more than a puncher, more than a guy with scintillating speed. And he wasn’t. And then that night got followed by another night with Holyfield. Holyfield…
The five fights where there was something to overcome and he didn’t overcome it. Now, I know people hate me for this, including Tyson. I understand, hate me. Oh, you’re a hater, because you weren’t with him, you didn’t make the money because this, because of that, because you got betrayed. I think I’m better than that. I hope I’m better than that. I believe I’m better than that. I’m not a hater. I’ve broadcast fights for 25 years on ESPN, where there was some people in the corner I did not like, and if they did a good job, this guy’s doing a great job. And then, there were guys that I liked and I had friendship, he messed up, and we weren’t friends no more. Friendship got to be tested. Remember that? So, we weren’t friends no more, but why did I do that? Because it was my job. It was more important for me… When it’s all over with, the only thing you’re left with is… We’re going to be dust, all of us, right?
The only thing we’re left with is what carries on, our reputation, legacy, whatever that is. But our reputation, that’s all we’re left with. And that’s all our kids are left with. I want it to be as good as it can be. I’ve always had ability, I’ve done a lot of things wrong, and I’ve had a lot of lackings, but the one strength I’ve had, if I had a strength, is to understand somehow, through osmosis, I guess, to learn the lesson that was important is not what’s in front of you for those five seconds, for that moment in life, it’s what’s left behind you when those five seconds are gone. Whatever it is that you’re dealing with, whatever that moment is, whatever… That moment, what you do in that moment, the action of that moment is going to stay with you and be you. It’s going to become you.
What you face for that moment, it’s gone. It’s gone in the air, in an instant. It’s gone, it’s done. Whether you stand up there and you get shot in the head, and the guy freaking blows your brains out, or you stand up or you’re fighting a guy who’s a scary guy to fight, but you fight him and you beat him or he beats you up. But how you represented yourself in that moment is all that matters. That’s going to live. What happened don’t matter. It don’t matter that you got shot in the head. I know that sounds absurd, but if you believe that it was important to stand up and take the chance to get shot in the freaking head, rather than to live like an empty vessel, you know what? That’s all that freaking matters. And somehow that got freaking wrapped into this freaking head of mine, that’s what matters. That’s all that matters.
You know how many times I went, and there were things, whether it was with this one, with Tyson, with that… I didn’t want to be there, I was scared to death, but I was more scared-
That’s how good he was. That’s how, even though it was a guy who used to be a light heavyweight, I get it. But it was still a guy who beat Larry Holmes, who still had something left, Michael Spinks. And a great puncher. And an Olympic gold medalist. And a special fighter, one of the great light heavyweights of all time. You know what Mike Tyson was? He was a meteor. He was a meteor that struck across, and not too many meteors… And we still talk about him. And unlike Haley’s comet, he came back, and he’s walking around. And he has become greater after his career, more loved, more beloved, more awed, and he’s been forgiven. He found the fountain of forgiveness. I don’t know… I wish I could find that.
Where he has been forgotten for all his shortcomings, all the things that he may have done, may not have done, we don’t know, only him and God know. But he’s been forgiven of all that, and he’s been not only forgiven, he’s rised above it and above that, and been brought above that. He’s been brought to the pyramids of the greatest athletes in the world. In every way. In every way. As a person, as a fighter, as a historian, as a figure, as a celebrity-
That is really the only way to be a great fighter. And I don’t think that’s what Cus meant, I think he meant that… Cus knew more than I did of what was about to come and what would come and what the world was. How people would try to steal him, how people would take him, how people would steal his guy. The last thing he had, really, the thing that he lived for. Because he lived to have another heavyweight champ, the greatest fighter ever, in Cus’ mind. He could be. And I believe that Cus knew that he could put forward a guy that had the ability to be the greatest fighter ever, without fully completing the mission of what it takes to really be great, but that he wouldn’t be around to have to witness it.
And that he wouldn’t… Oh man, this is awful. He’s willing to concede that he might be dead in order to have eternal life, in order to have greatness. And which, Cus does have greatness, and part of that greatness is attached to Tyson. And he deserves it. He deserves it, Cus was a great man. And I wouldn’t be here, partly, without him.
And he knew that that might happen, but you guys screwed it up. And whatever, that’s your fault. That’s on… I’ll tell you, Tyson will be mad at this, but that’s on Tyson. How can you say that Teddy? He loved me. I’m not saying he didn’t love you, but he loved some other stuff too. And I don’t know if Tyson could ever come to grip’s light with that, and it’s not his job to. But it’s my job not to hide from it. I know Cus in dimensions that other people just only think they know.
How dare I say anything less? I won’t. But it made sense too. But he was a ward of the state still. Do you know what that means? There’s rules. It means the state’s still overlooking it. If he ain’t living the right life… You got to remember, he came out of a jail. So, reform school. But if he ain’t living the life, he could be taken away from Cus. What’s not living the right life? Well, he wasn’t in school no more, they didn’t know about it. He had some things that were going on, we won’t get into that right now, in school and different things, whatever. And he had his trainer put a gun to his head. That ain’t so good. If a report came back to them that that happened, he would’ve been taken away from Cus. That couldn’t happen. Nobody knows this. I talk about it a little bit, but never, probably… Because why would I?
I don’t know. Why am I doing it now? I don’t know, because… I don’t know. Because I am-
And thank God he wasn’t. I wasn’t going to go and say nothing, they didn’t have to worry about it. Cus forgot who I was? Cus forgot why he went to court for me? Because of those characteristics that he said he loved, and he noticed, and that he admired. I didn’t lose those characters, he forgot that that was me, he forgot who he was talking to. He didn’t have to do that. How about, that’s why I told him to shove it up his… Not because of the other insult. And then, when people said to me, oh, you were stand up… Because it was around a little bit. It was around in the circles. And then, when people… Oh, stand up Teddy, he didn’t care about the money. I said, stand up Teddy? What are you talking about?
How about just realistic, Teddy? How about I live in a real world, that I was never going to get that money? So, I’m standing up to something that I knew never existed. So, I ain’t stand up, not in that way. I am in other ways maybe, but don’t put a medal on my chest for that, because that never existed. It was never meant to exist. But he didn’t even understand. That was the one thing that really disappointed me in Cus. I was like Cus, you really allowed this to get to you. Where you’ve allowed it to really fog up your thinking, to the point where you’re smarter than that, you’re better than that. That you would actually think you got to freaking offer me freaking pieces of silver. You really think that? That’s what you… Freak you. All that you told me, that you love me, and that I was the young master, and all this… And you think you were going to buy me? And that was going to keep me quiet? How about I would keep quiet because I would always keep quiet?
I just pray that you didn’t know that. And you still don’t know that. Because you were great, you were great. And you’ve given me something to aspire towards. To try to be less weak. Try to be better. And try to be as good as you wanted to be. I wish I can someday. More importantly, I wish I could make my father just feel good up there.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 3:25 – Lessons from father
- 13:31 – Scar story
- 34:09 – Cus D’Amato
- 44:21 – Mike Tyson
- 2:02:17 – Forgiveness
Introduction
Lex Fridman
That’s all that matters, that he got there, that he got to the place to act like a fighter. To do what we want him to do, to be ready to persevere, to go beyond the comfort level, to do another round. He didn’t want to. Damn right he didn’t want to, but he knew we want him to. And he knew in order to pass the test, he had to do it. He goes, “Now, it’s going to be your job to get him in the gym, make him mentally stronger, make him face things, and teach him how to slip punches and create holes, and fill those freaking holes with devastating punches…” There’s a cuss, “… with punches with bad intentions.”
That’s all that matters, that he got there, that he got to the place to act like a fighter. To do what we want him to do, to be ready to persevere, to go beyond the comfort level, to do another round. He didn’t want to. Damn right he didn’t want to, but he knew we want him to. And he knew in order to pass the test, he had to do it. He goes, “Now, it’s going to be your job to get him in the gym, make him mentally stronger, make him face things, and teach him how to slip punches and create holes, and fill those freaking holes with devastating punches…” There’s a cuss, “… with punches with bad intentions.”
The following is a conversation with Teddy Atlas, a legendary and, at times, controversial boxing trainer and commentator. When I was going to this conversation with Teddy, I was ready to talk boxing, styles, matches, techniques, tactics, and his analysis of individual fighters, like Mike Tyson, Michael Moorer, Klitschkos, Usyk, Povetkin, Lomachenko, Triple G, Canelo, Muhammad Ali, Sugar Ray Leonard, Hagler, Duran, Floyd, and on and on and on. Like I said, I came ready to talk boxing, but I stayed for something even bigger, the Shakespearian human story of Teddy Atlas, Cus D’Amato, and Mike Tyson.
It’s a story about loyalty, betrayal, fear, and greatness. It’s a story where nobody is perfect and everybody is human. To summarize, in the early ’80s, young trainer, Teddy Atlas, worked with his mentor, Cus D’Amato, in training the young boxing protégé, now a boxing legend, Mike Tyson. Mike was a troubled youth, arrested over 40 times, and at age 15, he was sexually inappropriate with Teddy’s 11-year-old niece.
In response to this, Teddy put a .38 caliber handgun to Tyson’s ear and told him to never touch his family again or he would kill him if he did. For this Cus D’Amato kicked Teddy out. Why? Well, that’s complicated. In part, I think, to help minimize the chance of Mike Tyson, who Cus legally adopted, will be taken away by the state, and with him the dream of developing one of the greatest boxers of all time.
Of course, that summary doesn’t capture the full complexity of human nature and human drama involved here. For that, you have to listen to this conversation, the things said and the things left unsaid. The pain in Teddy’s voice, the contradictions of love and anger that permeate his stories and his philosophy on life. Like I said, I came to talk about boxing and stayed to talk about life.
This conversation will stay with me for a long time. The people close to you, the people you trust, the people you love, are everything. And if they betray you and break your heart, forgive them, forgive yourself and try again. Happy holidays, everyone. I love you all.
This is a Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Teddy Atlas.
Lessons from father
You wrote in the book that your father had a big influence on your life. What lessons have you learned about life from your father?
Teddy Atlas
When you ask that question, I remember Cus D’Amato, when I was with him up in Catskill for all those years. He used to say to me, “Teddy, you learned through osmosis.” I believe there’s truth to that, if I know what osmosis is, but it sounds good. But I learned through osmosis with my father. He wasn’t a big talker. He was a doer. And when you’re around someone who lives a certain kind of life and does certain things, it penetrates.
When you ask that question, I remember Cus D’Amato, when I was with him up in Catskill for all those years. He used to say to me, “Teddy, you learned through osmosis.” I believe there’s truth to that, if I know what osmosis is, but it sounds good. But I learned through osmosis with my father. He wasn’t a big talker. He was a doer. And when you’re around someone who lives a certain kind of life and does certain things, it penetrates.
Lex Fridman
He was a doctor.
He was a doctor.
Teddy Atlas
I’m going to sound like an idiot right now, because I’m being a son, but he was the greatest diagnostic doctor. I mean, if I say, I ever knew, what does that mean? You know what I mean? Are you a doctor? You know what I mean? What does that mean? But, other people have told me this, just legendary stories.
I’m going to sound like an idiot right now, because I’m being a son, but he was the greatest diagnostic doctor. I mean, if I say, I ever knew, what does that mean? You know what I mean? Are you a doctor? You know what I mean? What does that mean? But, other people have told me this, just legendary stories.
Lex Fridman
He would do house calls and he’d help people, and like you said, a lot of people have spoken about the impact he’s had on their life.
He would do house calls and he’d help people, and like you said, a lot of people have spoken about the impact he’s had on their life.
Teddy Atlas
He built two hospitals, and he built a hospital before the Verrazano Bridge in New York, connecting Brooklyn to Staten Island. And he built it so people could get proper hospital care that couldn’t afford it, period. And everybody looked at him as eccentric.
He built two hospitals, and he built a hospital before the Verrazano Bridge in New York, connecting Brooklyn to Staten Island. And he built it so people could get proper hospital care that couldn’t afford it, period. And everybody looked at him as eccentric.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, nice. [inaudible 00:04:58].
Yeah, nice. [inaudible 00:04:58].
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, because, he would literally sneak patients, not sneak them in, he was Dr. Atlas, he could do what he wanted, to a certain extent. But he would bring patients in without administering, putting through administration, so there was no charge, because they didn’t have anything. They were street people. I remember being… My only way to be with my father was to go on house calls or to go to the office. There was no…
Yeah, because, he would literally sneak patients, not sneak them in, he was Dr. Atlas, he could do what he wanted, to a certain extent. But he would bring patients in without administering, putting through administration, so there was no charge, because they didn’t have anything. They were street people. I remember being… My only way to be with my father was to go on house calls or to go to the office. There was no…
And so I went on house calls with him. And he did house calls, by the way, till he was 80, and $3. I mean, it was better than McDonald’s, you know what I mean? I mean, the deal, $3 and you got medicine, you got everything. But he used to, right around the holidays, there was just certain things that I didn’t understand, but I understood later, where we would just drive certain areas and he just, all of a sudden, open the door, he would pick up these… and-
Lex Fridman
Help them.
Help them.
Teddy Atlas
… I’m 10 years old, ” Move over.” Move over, you know?
… I’m 10 years old, ” Move over.” Move over, you know?
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. It was just you, him, and a homeless guy.
Mm-hmm. It was just you, him, and a homeless guy.
Teddy Atlas
A couple.
A couple.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, a couple.
Yeah, a couple.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, whatever he could fit in, three, four, whatever it was.
Yeah, whatever he could fit in, three, four, whatever it was.
Lex Fridman
That’s a big heart.
That’s a big heart.
Teddy Atlas
And then he took them to the hospital, dropped them off. I would ask questions after it was all over with. I’d say, “Dad, they’re sick.” He goes, “Well, not in a way.” “Why did you put them in the hospital?” So he said, “Yeah.” And he’d tried to explain things to me. He would try, he didn’t talk much unless you’d ask him something, and that works. And don’t talk unless someone asks you something. And he explained to me that, he said… I said, “Well, why are you putting them in the hospital?”
And then he took them to the hospital, dropped them off. I would ask questions after it was all over with. I’d say, “Dad, they’re sick.” He goes, “Well, not in a way.” “Why did you put them in the hospital?” So he said, “Yeah.” And he’d tried to explain things to me. He would try, he didn’t talk much unless you’d ask him something, and that works. And don’t talk unless someone asks you something. And he explained to me that, he said… I said, “Well, why are you putting them in the hospital?”
And, of course, their sickness was, they were alcoholics. “but ,why do you put them…?” It wasn’t an alcohol rehab, so why are you putting… And it wasn’t for the purpose to dry out. He wasn’t trying to cure them. Let’s put that before we anoint him for sainthood, by Teddy Atlas. I was like, we finally get to the point, “Why do you put them in there?” “Well, because it’s the holidays.”
“All right, why do you put them in there?” “Well, the holidays are good for certain people and bad for others.” And it was always before the holidays. It was before Christmas, it was before whatever, New Year’s, whatever. So I said, “Why?” And he said, “Because they remind people, certain people, of what they don’t have. Other people enjoy the holidays because of what they have, family, whatever, and it reminds them, their mind is that.”
Lex Fridman
That’s pretty profound.
That’s pretty profound.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. And then, I don’t remember, because he didn’t use the word suicide, but I got it. He basically, I forget how he said it, but I just got it. I don’t know how I… I suppose, I don’t know, but I just got it. So they don’t hurt themselves. That’s what came across-
Yeah. And then, I don’t remember, because he didn’t use the word suicide, but I got it. He basically, I forget how he said it, but I just got it. I don’t know how I… I suppose, I don’t know, but I just got it. So they don’t hurt themselves. That’s what came across-
Lex Fridman
In every way.
In every way.
Teddy Atlas
I don’t think he ever articulated that or ever verbalized that. But, yeah, they don’t hurt themselves. Well, how does that work? Well, it just basically they’re going to be around people. They’re not going to be alone. They’re going to be around people. They’re going to get fed, they’re going to be warm, right, and it’s going to be for three days, two, three days, whatever. And basically, it’s a bridge. So the funny thing, as a 10-year-old, I want to be connected to him, so I enlisted myself in the job.
I don’t think he ever articulated that or ever verbalized that. But, yeah, they don’t hurt themselves. Well, how does that work? Well, it just basically they’re going to be around people. They’re not going to be alone. They’re going to be around people. They’re going to get fed, they’re going to be warm, right, and it’s going to be for three days, two, three days, whatever. And basically, it’s a bridge. So the funny thing, as a 10-year-old, I want to be connected to him, so I enlisted myself in the job.
When he used to drop them off, he would take them, get them in, right? And then the thing that I know, again, he didn’t say nothing, but you notice things. And if you care enough, you don’t notice nothing if you don’t care. But if you can, if it’s important, you notice. And this guy was important to me. I just was, I didn’t know what a hero was, no clue. I loved Mickey Mantle, I loved Willie Mays, I love Muhammad Ali. I never, ever connected them in my mind as heroes. Never. My father, I didn’t connect it that way, but he-
Lex Fridman
Looking back now now [inaudible 00:09:22]-
Looking back now now [inaudible 00:09:22]-
Teddy Atlas
Looking back, he was my first connection to a hero.
Looking back, he was my first connection to a hero.
Lex Fridman
The two of you ever talk about how much you love each other? The word love?
The two of you ever talk about how much you love each other? The word love?
Teddy Atlas
One thing that was not allowed. The greatest memory I have, my father showing me love was, we were down in Florida at an airport and we were… I was born in Miami. Don’t ask where I was passing through. And the rest of my family’s born in New York, Staten Island. And so I was supposed to go back with him and I wanted to stay with my mother, for whatever reason. And so he, of course, conceded to it. Okay, whatever. And very quiet, very… And here’s a man who never showed emotion to anyone. I mean, for the most, you know… Well-
One thing that was not allowed. The greatest memory I have, my father showing me love was, we were down in Florida at an airport and we were… I was born in Miami. Don’t ask where I was passing through. And the rest of my family’s born in New York, Staten Island. And so I was supposed to go back with him and I wanted to stay with my mother, for whatever reason. And so he, of course, conceded to it. Okay, whatever. And very quiet, very… And here’s a man who never showed emotion to anyone. I mean, for the most, you know… Well-
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
… all of a sudden, he just turned and kissed me on the forehead and left. And I was like, “That’s different.”
… all of a sudden, he just turned and kissed me on the forehead and left. And I was like, “That’s different.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You still remember that, huh?
Yeah. You still remember that, huh?
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. Like, “That’s weird.”
Yeah. Like, “That’s weird.”
Lex Fridman
You lost him 30 years ago? How did that change you?
You lost him 30 years ago? How did that change you?
Teddy Atlas
It made me realize that some of the deals I used to make for God weren’t realistic. When I was a kid, I used to make deals with God. “Let me die before my father.” And then you get older and you have kids, you’re blessed, why did you make that deal? You know what I mean? Thank you for not taking me up on it.
It made me realize that some of the deals I used to make for God weren’t realistic. When I was a kid, I used to make deals with God. “Let me die before my father.” And then you get older and you have kids, you’re blessed, why did you make that deal? You know what I mean? Thank you for not taking me up on it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
You know?
You know?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You miss him?
Yeah. You miss him?
Teddy Atlas
I miss him in moments when I’d like to know what to do. And I remember when I would drive with him on the house calls, he didn’t listen to music. He was a guy, he read books to his… When he got older, he read books. Two blood vessels broke in his eyes. He only read nonfiction books, science. He loved science, wars, generals. I mean, I cheated on a couple book reports, because I didn’t do the reading of the book the night before I had a freaking a book report to put in. “Dad, I got a book report to do on the War of Stalingrad.” Really? The War of Stalingrad. And who the freak could tell you where you get an A? I got an A. I just wrote what he told me. He told me generals, he told me times, he told me strategy. He told me about the winter that came and destroyed the Germans, and the Soviets were tougher-
I miss him in moments when I’d like to know what to do. And I remember when I would drive with him on the house calls, he didn’t listen to music. He was a guy, he read books to his… When he got older, he read books. Two blood vessels broke in his eyes. He only read nonfiction books, science. He loved science, wars, generals. I mean, I cheated on a couple book reports, because I didn’t do the reading of the book the night before I had a freaking a book report to put in. “Dad, I got a book report to do on the War of Stalingrad.” Really? The War of Stalingrad. And who the freak could tell you where you get an A? I got an A. I just wrote what he told me. He told me generals, he told me times, he told me strategy. He told me about the winter that came and destroyed the Germans, and the Soviets were tougher-
Lex Fridman
You got an A.
You got an A.
Teddy Atlas
… and the Soviets were tougher than the Germans, and the Germans picked on the wrong opponent. I was already in the boxing business. I didn’t even know it. I didn’t even know it. Matchmaking, very important. They mismatched. They made a mistake with the picking the opponent. And so, when we would be driving in the car, my father would be in a trance. And dad, he wasn’t ignoring me at all, he was just with his thoughts. He was wherever. He wasn’t even hearing the radio no more.
… and the Soviets were tougher than the Germans, and the Germans picked on the wrong opponent. I was already in the boxing business. I didn’t even know it. I didn’t even know it. Matchmaking, very important. They mismatched. They made a mistake with the picking the opponent. And so, when we would be driving in the car, my father would be in a trance. And dad, he wasn’t ignoring me at all, he was just with his thoughts. He was wherever. He wasn’t even hearing the radio no more.
I always wondered where he was. I did. So I asked him one day. And just, so we’re driving, I said, I want to know so I said, “Dad, what do you think when you’re basically in this place, that I know you’re somewhere? Where are you? What are you seeing?” I actually said, “What do you see?” And he said to me, “I see what could be. I see what could be.” And I’m like, “Oh, all right.”
Scar story
Lex Fridman
I got to ask you, when did you discover boxing? When did you first fall in love with boxing?
I got to ask you, when did you discover boxing? When did you first fall in love with boxing?
Teddy Atlas
When it saved me.
When it saved me.
Lex Fridman
How did it save you?
How did it save you?
Teddy Atlas
I was a stupid, violent kid that was angry. Not exactly know why I was angry. I’d fit in real good in today’s society, because there’s a lot of angry kids out there that I don’t think they know why they’re angry. I was just out there getting in fights and I got this stupid thing from that.
I was a stupid, violent kid that was angry. Not exactly know why I was angry. I’d fit in real good in today’s society, because there’s a lot of angry kids out there that I don’t think they know why they’re angry. I was just out there getting in fights and I got this stupid thing from that.
Lex Fridman
Can you tell the story of how you got that?
Can you tell the story of how you got that?
Teddy Atlas
I was just running around doing stupid things, bad things. I hurt people, some people physically, but I hurt my family. That’s BS, you only hurt yourself. That’s a good way of alibi-ing it. But, at some point, the truth usually finds its way. I’d like it to look like I was just hurting myself, but I wasn’t, obviously. So I was just out on the streets, with kids that didn’t grow up in the neighborhood I grew up. I grew up in a neighborhood where father was a doctor. And I walked down the street…
I was just running around doing stupid things, bad things. I hurt people, some people physically, but I hurt my family. That’s BS, you only hurt yourself. That’s a good way of alibi-ing it. But, at some point, the truth usually finds its way. I’d like it to look like I was just hurting myself, but I wasn’t, obviously. So I was just out on the streets, with kids that didn’t grow up in the neighborhood I grew up. I grew up in a neighborhood where father was a doctor. And I walked down the street…
The funny thing was, down the hill was a very tough neighborhood called Stapleton. And most of the people down there on the corners wished they could get up the hill, and I wished I could get down the hill. So I went down the hill and I hung out with all these friends that became lifelong friends. I gravitated to that, because I figured out later a little bit, but I wanted family. We were destroying the family. My father was a doctor, he didn’t have time for nothing but being a doctor.
I think when you created something, you sacrifice something, too. When you’re really great at something, so great that maybe God made you great and you’re too great for your own good. And then, I don’t know, it took me to these stupid, dangerous places. Dangerous for me, but dangerous for other people, too. Because, I got to the point where I was doing robberies on the street, I was fighting everybody.
And you know what the most dangerous part about it was? And I came to this realization on my own. I’m all by myself. I figured out, I was really as dangerous… These kids from the project, some of them, they got nothing. First of all, I learned you don’t have to be poor to be poor. You don’t have to be deprived of certain things to be deprived, at least to think you’re deprived. And I was poor in away that I didn’t have the only thing I wanted to have, him.
So here I am where I’m out there doing these things, and what made me more, I was more dangerous than some of these psychopaths. Well, I was a psychopath, too, I guess, the way I was behaving. But some of these psychopaths that really had nothing, really, they obviously would kill you. I was dangerous almost in the same way, but for a different reason. I know it’s ridiculous what I’m about to tell you, but I figured it out, because I felt it. I thought I was on a righteous path. I thought I had a right because it was going to get me my father back.
Why? Why? I mean, you’re a scientist, you couldn’t figure this one out. Because all the people that had him were injured people, fractured people, screwed up people in some ways, but hurt, damaged people. So if I get damaged, I’ll get him. So I was on a crusade, really, a righteous crusade where I thought it was okay. I had permission. I had permission to do these terrible things, quite frankly, and to fight everyone wanted to. And then it came almost to a crash of doing all that, winding up in Rikers Island like an idiot, not understanding the damage I did to this poor man, that he was a great doctor and he’s got to see his son and hear about, you know what I mean?
God, I was out on that day with the guys that I grew up with now, the guys from the projects from as I described, and I was with one of them who, he’s dead now. I was with him and we were in a neighborhood, the neighborhood we grew up, that I hung out, and he grew up in. Billy, he came from the project. And we got into a thing where we cut, somebody cut us off, we cut them off, jumped out to fight. Turned out there’s five or six of them and two of us. And we fought, right on the side, right there, only about a block from where I used to hang out, and maybe a block and a half.
And right in front of this Spanish bodega. It really does happen in slow motion. I actually saw the guy, I was fighting the guys that I had to fight. And then, all of a sudden, I was able to get one guy out of the way a little bit. And I really, I noticed the guy go into his pocket and I knew why he was going in his pocket. When he came out of his pocket, I knew what it was right away. It was weird, because in the neighborhood, guys used to hang out, they were into this… They get into fads right on the streets. And at that time, they went into this cheap knife, but they thought it was, well, we thought it was cool. It was a 007.
And the cool thing, whatever, was that you could flick it, you could learn. And I learned how to flick, but I never carried a knife. But, my friends would have it. I would just, you learn how you could flick it open, not a switchblade, but flick it with your wrist. And I was like, here I am in the middle of this freaking fight, and all of a sudden, “Oh, this is a 007.” And so I’m like, you got to make a decision. And I got a split, I can either not do nothing, which didn’t seem like a great option. I couldn’t run away.
Lex Fridman
Why not?
Why not?
Teddy Atlas
Because you got to live with yourself afterwards. And that’s more difficult to live with than whatever it is at that second, because that don’t go away.
Because you got to live with yourself afterwards. And that’s more difficult to live with than whatever it is at that second, because that don’t go away.
Lex Fridman
You couldn’t live with yourself-
You couldn’t live with yourself-
Teddy Atlas
It just-
It just-
Lex Fridman
… running away.
… running away.
Teddy Atlas
… It just don’t go away. That thing, nothing to do with being brave. It has nothing to do with being brave, really. It’s got to do with just common sense in life. That, for me, whatever you’re dealing with, it’s over, it’s done. Like, okay, deal with it, good or bad, whatever. But, you do that, that other thing, you can’t, that never ends. This thing ends.
… It just don’t go away. That thing, nothing to do with being brave. It has nothing to do with being brave, really. It’s got to do with just common sense in life. That, for me, whatever you’re dealing with, it’s over, it’s done. Like, okay, deal with it, good or bad, whatever. But, you do that, that other thing, you can’t, that never ends. This thing ends.
Lex Fridman
Memory of you being, let’s say, a coward in that moment, that never ends.
Memory of you being, let’s say, a coward in that moment, that never ends.
Teddy Atlas
The only thing I had at that point in my life, in my stupid mind, was a reputation that I would stand up to certain things. That was like, and that for me was worth something, whatever, because I didn’t feel any worth to anything else. That was the only thing I felt a connection of worth to.
The only thing I had at that point in my life, in my stupid mind, was a reputation that I would stand up to certain things. That was like, and that for me was worth something, whatever, because I didn’t feel any worth to anything else. That was the only thing I felt a connection of worth to.
Lex Fridman
Stood your ground and got cut.
Stood your ground and got cut.
Teddy Atlas
No, I made a decision. I stood my ground, but I actually, things do slow down. They do. And I actually said, “It’s a 007, he’s got to flick it.” And I didn’t say no, but he’s got to flick it. I get a split second, like I said, either I do nothing, whatever, or I get to him before he gets it flicked. I went to get to him before he got flicked. And I, just as I got close to, I did him a favor. I walked right into a counterpunch, because I cooperated with him. I went right to him. And just as I… He practiced more than I did with the 007 apparently. Because he was like, whomp, whomp, whomp, whomp. Anyway.
No, I made a decision. I stood my ground, but I actually, things do slow down. They do. And I actually said, “It’s a 007, he’s got to flick it.” And I didn’t say no, but he’s got to flick it. I get a split second, like I said, either I do nothing, whatever, or I get to him before he gets it flicked. I went to get to him before he got flicked. And I, just as I got close to, I did him a favor. I walked right into a counterpunch, because I cooperated with him. I went right to him. And just as I… He practiced more than I did with the 007 apparently. Because he was like, whomp, whomp, whomp, whomp. Anyway.
Lex Fridman
What did you think? What did you think that happened? That was all slow motion. Did you think he might die?
What did you think? What did you think that happened? That was all slow motion. Did you think he might die?
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. Well, not immediately. Took me a minute. I’m a slow learner. I put my hand up. Right? Wouldn’t you? I guess so.
Yeah. Well, not immediately. Took me a minute. I’m a slow learner. I put my hand up. Right? Wouldn’t you? I guess so.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, mm-hmm.
Yeah, mm-hmm.
Teddy Atlas
And it went into my face and that was it. It was gooey. It was warm and gooey. And I was like, “I don’t know what this means, but I don’t want to know, but I think I know.” And…
And it went into my face and that was it. It was gooey. It was warm and gooey. And I was like, “I don’t know what this means, but I don’t want to know, but I think I know.” And…
Lex Fridman
Did you think about your dad in that moment?
Did you think about your dad in that moment?
Teddy Atlas
No. You know what I thought about him was, you don’t know who anyone is until they’re tested. I learned that. Cus used to tell me, but I learned it. He said, I remember one time Cus, because I was a 17, 18-year-old kid up there, thought I was, whatever I thought I was, and he said, “You got a lot of friends.” And I said, “Yeah.” Because I was on the street, hanging out with a hundred kids at night, sometimes on the street corner. So I was like, I don’t know too many people that hung out with a hundred kids on the street, on a corner, on a Friday, Saturday night.
No. You know what I thought about him was, you don’t know who anyone is until they’re tested. I learned that. Cus used to tell me, but I learned it. He said, I remember one time Cus, because I was a 17, 18-year-old kid up there, thought I was, whatever I thought I was, and he said, “You got a lot of friends.” And I said, “Yeah.” Because I was on the street, hanging out with a hundred kids at night, sometimes on the street corner. So I was like, I don’t know too many people that hung out with a hundred kids on the street, on a corner, on a Friday, Saturday night.
And I was like, “Yeah, I got a lot of friends.” He goes, “Really?” I said, “Yeah, really.” He said, “How about if I told you you might not have any. Most likely you don’t have any.” And he goes, and then he just started this thing. He said, “Everyone’s going to be tested, you, me, everyone, because you don’t know about nobody until they’re tested.” He goes, “You know nothing.” He goes, “You nothing until you know. Until something happens to test if they were really your friend.” And he told me this story about a guy.
A guy came to him and he was upset. “What are you upset about?” He goes, “I’m upset because I just lost a friend. After 20 years of friendship, we’re not friends no more.” So Cus looks at him, he goes, “Let me ask you a question. What made you think you were ever friends with him?” Now the guy gets insulted to Cus. “Did you hear me?” He goes, “I just told you 20 years I’ve been friends with this guy. Why would you say that to me?”
He said, “Well, I’ll say it again. What makes you think he was your friend?” He goes, “Whatever happened in the 20 years, other than chasing girls,” because Cus figured that went out fast, “… chasing girls and drinking together, and whatever else you’re doing out on the street, whatever gave you the inclination that he was a friend?” He goes, “Whatever, when did he risk himself to be your friend? When was it dangerous to be your friend?”
Lex Fridman
When was the friendship tested?
When was the friendship tested?
Teddy Atlas
“When was it uncomfortable to be your friend?” And you know what the guy said? You can figure it out, you’re a scientist. He said, “Today.” And today came for me. And today, today, today, today, kept coming for me. Today.” And that day, my friend Billy had turned out while I was fighting these, whatever, five, six guys, and where was Billy? He was on the roof. He was on the roof. He was on the roof. He was my best friend.
“When was it uncomfortable to be your friend?” And you know what the guy said? You can figure it out, you’re a scientist. He said, “Today.” And today came for me. And today, today, today, today, kept coming for me. Today.” And that day, my friend Billy had turned out while I was fighting these, whatever, five, six guys, and where was Billy? He was on the roof. He was on the roof. He was on the roof. He was my best friend.
So anyway, they take me to the hospital. And here’s the thing with my father. But one thing Billy did do for me when he got off the roof, thank God, he did, he dragged me into this bodega, laid me on the floor, and started putting towels. And the towels, I vaguely remember this, they filled up with blood. I mean completely drenched, like you put them under a shower. And I heard the bodega owner screaming, screaming like… whatever. And everyone’s screaming and there’s chaos, and I’m like, I don’t know, I’m calm. Weird, I’m real calm. I’m just in this place, things calm.
And all of a sudden I hear Billy, he’s screaming, ” Call the ambulance, call the…,” and nobody’s doing nothing, everyone’s frozen. I’m starting to understand already people get frozen in situations. People, the fear, fear, fear, fear, fear just paralyzes people. And I was going into a fear business. I was learning. I was learning. I was getting a learning, early PhD-
Lex Fridman
Living in fear.
Living in fear.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
And, all of a sudden, genius, Billy genius, really, street kid. He jumps up on the freaking counter, jumps over the counter, grabs the phone, calls 911, says a cop’s been shot, and forget about it. It was crazy. All I remember after that, I’ll tell you the couple things I remember, lights, being put onto a stretcher, bounced around, rushed. I felt everyone’s anxiety, except mine. I had none. But I felt everyone’s anxiety, everyone’s fear, like was all around me. It was like, “Wow, this is interesting. It’s kind of…” I know that’s stupid, but, “Wow, this is interesting.”
And, all of a sudden, genius, Billy genius, really, street kid. He jumps up on the freaking counter, jumps over the counter, grabs the phone, calls 911, says a cop’s been shot, and forget about it. It was crazy. All I remember after that, I’ll tell you the couple things I remember, lights, being put onto a stretcher, bounced around, rushed. I felt everyone’s anxiety, except mine. I had none. But I felt everyone’s anxiety, everyone’s fear, like was all around me. It was like, “Wow, this is interesting. It’s kind of…” I know that’s stupid, but, “Wow, this is interesting.”
Lex Fridman
You really have an eye for fear. That’s fascinating. You’re really studying it.
You really have an eye for fear. That’s fascinating. You’re really studying it.
Teddy Atlas
Well, I had no choice, I got introduced in a crash course. And they put me in ambulance, and this is what I remember to your point, I’m sorry it took so long to get to it. I am, although I’ll probably do it again before this conversation’s over. But I-
Well, I had no choice, I got introduced in a crash course. And they put me in ambulance, and this is what I remember to your point, I’m sorry it took so long to get to it. I am, although I’ll probably do it again before this conversation’s over. But I-
Lex Fridman
It’s all about the journey.
It’s all about the journey.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. We’ll get there. We’ll get there, pops. So I hear the cops say, “We might lose him.” And I’m laughing to myself, I’m not laughing, because I’m not, again, I’m not John Wayne. John Wayne would’ve laughed, but I’m like, “Lose? You guys are stupid.” I didn’t say that, but I’m like, ” Lose me? My father’s the greatest doctor in the freaking world. There’s nothing to worry about. You people are all uptight and whacked out here with fear, and there’s nothing to worry about. Dr. Atlas is my father.”
Yeah. We’ll get there. We’ll get there, pops. So I hear the cops say, “We might lose him.” And I’m laughing to myself, I’m not laughing, because I’m not, again, I’m not John Wayne. John Wayne would’ve laughed, but I’m like, “Lose? You guys are stupid.” I didn’t say that, but I’m like, ” Lose me? My father’s the greatest doctor in the freaking world. There’s nothing to worry about. You people are all uptight and whacked out here with fear, and there’s nothing to worry about. Dr. Atlas is my father.”
So anyway, so they’re taking me to the… And he said, “We don’t have time.” I hear, couple things I remember, “Don’t have time. Take him to…” and they take me to US Public Health Hospital. Marine Hospital was called at the time, but US Public Health. And it’s in Stapleton, so it’s close, thank God. So they’re taking me, and I hear them on the radio saying this stuff about, “We got to move. We got to move.” I start talking and they’re telling me, “Don’t talk.” But I like to talk a lot. And I’m… Again, fear.” There’s no fear when the fear’s been removed.
It’s the only time you really free in life. And I know that sounds absurd, but really, it is. It’s the only time you’re really free in life. When you’re-
Lex Fridman
Close to death?
Close to death?
Teddy Atlas
… when you’re devoid of things that normally hold you back, that normally influence you in ways that are, not of the influence that, always positive influence where you are in a pure place, where you’re in a purely free place from all inhibitions, from fear, from anxiety, from joy. Joy can screw you up, and you’re free from all these things. And I’m in this place, just [inaudible 00:31:18]-
… when you’re devoid of things that normally hold you back, that normally influence you in ways that are, not of the influence that, always positive influence where you are in a pure place, where you’re in a purely free place from all inhibitions, from fear, from anxiety, from joy. Joy can screw you up, and you’re free from all these things. And I’m in this place, just [inaudible 00:31:18]-
Lex Fridman
In the back of an ambulance, you’re free.
In the back of an ambulance, you’re free.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. I said, “Just get me Dr. Atlas.” And they say, “We don’t have time.” “No, no, no, no, no, you don’t… You have to get Dr. Atlas. You have to get him.” This was the… Damn it, this was the… You know what I mean? I finally freaking hit the number and I’m not getting paid. And then, all of a sudden, I’m out.
Yeah. I said, “Just get me Dr. Atlas.” And they say, “We don’t have time.” “No, no, no, no, no, you don’t… You have to get Dr. Atlas. You have to get him.” This was the… Damn it, this was the… You know what I mean? I finally freaking hit the number and I’m not getting paid. And then, all of a sudden, I’m out.
Lex Fridman
How many stitches?
How many stitches?
Teddy Atlas
They… Well, I think it was 400, 200 inside, 200 outside, or whatever it was.
They… Well, I think it was 400, 200 inside, 200 outside, or whatever it was.
Lex Fridman
It’s a lot.
It’s a lot.
Teddy Atlas
Hey, look, after 50, the number doesn’t matter no more. Whatever, 60, 70, 80, 90, whatever. So I was fortunate, I was fortunate. And, of course, I was fortunate, they told me afterwards, that missed my jugular, literally by a centimeter. I mean, whatever. So then we wouldn’t be having this conversation, obviously.
Hey, look, after 50, the number doesn’t matter no more. Whatever, 60, 70, 80, 90, whatever. So I was fortunate, I was fortunate. And, of course, I was fortunate, they told me afterwards, that missed my jugular, literally by a centimeter. I mean, whatever. So then we wouldn’t be having this conversation, obviously.
Lex Fridman
I’m glad you made it.
I’m glad you made it.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah-
Yeah-
Lex Fridman
That’s another thing.
That’s another thing.
Teddy Atlas
… I’m glad, too. And it just missed my eye, which, thank God. It’s bad enough I have a scar, imagine me with a patch? I mean, it’s enough that I got this freaking thing. And look, it goes all the way. I mean, it’s pretty long. I don’t know, I was out. And then somehow, I sensed, they had the curtain closed, and it’s amazing how vivid this is. And the curtain’s closed and I see a shadow. I felt a presence. I did, and I felt him. He’s a powerful guy. And I felt him and I just see a shadow, you know? And, all of a sudden, the curtain gets pushed-
… I’m glad, too. And it just missed my eye, which, thank God. It’s bad enough I have a scar, imagine me with a patch? I mean, it’s enough that I got this freaking thing. And look, it goes all the way. I mean, it’s pretty long. I don’t know, I was out. And then somehow, I sensed, they had the curtain closed, and it’s amazing how vivid this is. And the curtain’s closed and I see a shadow. I felt a presence. I did, and I felt him. He’s a powerful guy. And I felt him and I just see a shadow, you know? And, all of a sudden, the curtain gets pushed-
Teddy Atlas
And all of a sudden the curtain gets pushed back. And I can’t really see. It’s dark and I’m out of it, but not completely out of it. And pushes the curtain back, comes in, and his hand, even though it’s all bandaged, whatever, but his hand surveys. It felt safe and it felt warm and safe. I was happy. And he got there.
And all of a sudden the curtain gets pushed back. And I can’t really see. It’s dark and I’m out of it, but not completely out of it. And pushes the curtain back, comes in, and his hand, even though it’s all bandaged, whatever, but his hand surveys. It felt safe and it felt warm and safe. I was happy. And he got there.
Lex Fridman
Did he say something?
Did he say something?
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, yeah. Remember, I gave you a little bit of introduction to my father, right? You know him now a little bit, right?
Yeah, yeah. Remember, I gave you a little bit of introduction to my father, right? You know him now a little bit, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah. What’d he say about the job?
Yeah, yeah. What’d he say about the job?
Teddy Atlas
This is what he said. I remember to this day what he said. That I do remember. I don’t know if it was six or five people, but this I do remember. He said, “They did a good job. You’re going to have a scar the rest of your life.” And he left.
This is what he said. I remember to this day what he said. That I do remember. I don’t know if it was six or five people, but this I do remember. He said, “They did a good job. You’re going to have a scar the rest of your life.” And he left.
Cus D’Amato
Lex Fridman
Oh, man. They did a good job. You mentioned Cus D’Amato, legendary trainer, and you also mentioned it turned out he really cared about you. In the book, you write about a testimony he gave. I was hoping I could read it because it speaks to your character. It speaks to his. It’s just powerful.
Oh, man. They did a good job. You mentioned Cus D’Amato, legendary trainer, and you also mentioned it turned out he really cared about you. In the book, you write about a testimony he gave. I was hoping I could read it because it speaks to your character. It speaks to his. It’s just powerful.
The testimony goes, ” Your Honor, I realize you might not know much about me, but I spent my whole life developing young men. As a boxing manager I trained two world champions, heavyweight champion Floyd Patterson and light heavyweight champion Jose Torres. I’ve also helped a lot of other young boys straighten out their lives and build character. I know things about Teddy Atlas this court doesn’t know, things you won’t find on his arrest record. This boy has character. He has loyalty. He’ll hurt himself before he’ll let down a friend. These qualities are rare and they shouldn’t be lost. He’s made mistakes. We’ve all made mistakes, but I’ve come to know this boy, and if we lose him, we’ll be losing someone who could help a lot of people. Please don’t take this young boy’s future away. He could be someone special. Let’s not lose him. Please.” Those are powerful words from a powerful man. What have you learned about life from Mr. Cus D’Amato?
Teddy Atlas
He gave me a quote that he drilled into my head. I became his guy. He loved me. I loved him. He said to me, “Teddy, no matter what a man says, it’s what he does in the end that he intended to do all along.” That’s what I learned from Cus. The rest of it is BS. And a lot of people say things. You just have to give them a minute to let them show you eventually what they really meant by it.
He gave me a quote that he drilled into my head. I became his guy. He loved me. I loved him. He said to me, “Teddy, no matter what a man says, it’s what he does in the end that he intended to do all along.” That’s what I learned from Cus. The rest of it is BS. And a lot of people say things. You just have to give them a minute to let them show you eventually what they really meant by it.
I also learned from him that everyone’s afraid. Cus, his way of saying it, another great saying, you’ll get a kick out of this, “Anyone who’s in a situation where fear should be prevalent, where fear is actually necessary to survive the situation, anyone who says that they’re not afraid, they’re one of two things. They’re either a liar or they should go to a doctor, find out what the frick’s wrong with them.” He was right about that. We live in a taboo society where that word, to a certain extent, is taboo because it invokes weakness. We are just layers of what we saw and learned since we were kids. We all are. We’re products of those layers. I learned that on my own and through some help.
At the end of the day, fear, people will find their way of avoiding that term. So they use the word anxiety, they use the word butterflies, apprehension, a million different words. I find all those other words to be cousins of fear. And fear causes a lot of things in life. It causes a lot of problems and it also solves a lot of problems. Without it, we couldn’t be great if we are great, if we ever have a chance to be great or at least to aspire to be great.
Lex Fridman
How does fear connect to greatness? That’s a profound statement. Without fear, we wouldn’t be able to be great.
How does fear connect to greatness? That’s a profound statement. Without fear, we wouldn’t be able to be great.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, you couldn’t be great without fear because fear allows you to be brave. The most important word for me in this whole conversation, right neighborhood would be selfishness, and it allows you to be, for a moment, less selfish. One of the things I learned, I guess partly on my own… Everyone thinks my greatest teacher was Cus. He was a great teacher, mentor. My greatest teacher was my father, the one who never talked. And I realized one of the things to be better, towards great is if you can submit less than we submit. See, one of the things that I’m afraid of, one of the things, I was always quitting. In my business, it’s not a good thing.
Yeah, you couldn’t be great without fear because fear allows you to be brave. The most important word for me in this whole conversation, right neighborhood would be selfishness, and it allows you to be, for a moment, less selfish. One of the things I learned, I guess partly on my own… Everyone thinks my greatest teacher was Cus. He was a great teacher, mentor. My greatest teacher was my father, the one who never talked. And I realized one of the things to be better, towards great is if you can submit less than we submit. See, one of the things that I’m afraid of, one of the things, I was always quitting. In my business, it’s not a good thing.
Lex Fridman
Every business, I think. Yours is just more clear.
Every business, I think. Yours is just more clear.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. It hurts more.
Yeah. It hurts more.
Lex Fridman
True. In the moment, at least.
True. In the moment, at least.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, in the moment. You’re right, 100%, because some things hurt for a long time afterwards. And something like regret. Regret is the worst thing in the world because it’s a solitary sentence. And man, oh, man-
Yeah, in the moment. You’re right, 100%, because some things hurt for a long time afterwards. And something like regret. Regret is the worst thing in the world because it’s a solitary sentence. And man, oh, man-
Lex Fridman
That’s a powerful phrase, regret is a solitary sentence. Oh, boy.
That’s a powerful phrase, regret is a solitary sentence. Oh, boy.
Teddy Atlas
So, I-
So, I-
Lex Fridman
You’re full of good lines.
You’re full of good lines.
Teddy Atlas
It wasn’t easy to accumulate them.
It wasn’t easy to accumulate them.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Hard run.
Yeah. Hard run.
Teddy Atlas
It was a little bit hurtful. So submit less, because we submit every day, and if we can get to a place where we submit or compromise ourselves less, we’ll get to a better place. Again, one of the words for me that attaches to things that wind up hurting you in life and have hurt me in life, one of those boogeymen words is the word of convenience. That’s attached to everything. People disappoint you not because they want to disappoint you or let you down or betray you, because they want to betray you. They do it because it’s more convenient to do than the other thing.
It was a little bit hurtful. So submit less, because we submit every day, and if we can get to a place where we submit or compromise ourselves less, we’ll get to a better place. Again, one of the words for me that attaches to things that wind up hurting you in life and have hurt me in life, one of those boogeymen words is the word of convenience. That’s attached to everything. People disappoint you not because they want to disappoint you or let you down or betray you, because they want to betray you. They do it because it’s more convenient to do than the other thing.
An old man once told me, he said to me… I was trying to rationalize something. I was trying to make an excuse for something. I was trying to make myself better than I was. I was trying to say it was okay. And he just looked at me, and he liked me, and he said, “Teddy, there ain’t no such thing as being a little pregnant.” I was like, “Yeah.” He goes, “Either you’re pregnant or you’re not pregnant. Either you’re real or you’re not real. Either you’re truthful or you’re not truthful. Either you’re tough or you’re not tough. Either you’re committed or you’re not committed. Either you’re in or you’re out.”
Lex Fridman
That applies to a lot of things, including loyalty.
That applies to a lot of things, including loyalty.
Teddy Atlas
That’s quite a statement. But the life level of humanity for me is loyalty. It’s what goes through the veins of… Everything has to have some veins in some form. And if humanity has veins, what runs through the veins of humanity instead of blood to keep it alive is loyalty.
That’s quite a statement. But the life level of humanity for me is loyalty. It’s what goes through the veins of… Everything has to have some veins in some form. And if humanity has veins, what runs through the veins of humanity instead of blood to keep it alive is loyalty.
Lex Fridman
Those are powerful words.
Those are powerful words.
Teddy Atlas
Without loyalty, we’re dead, we’re vessels. I never understood what a ghost ship was. You know what? As I got older, I know what a ghost ship is. It’s people. It’s people that are empty. They got no loyalty, therefore they got no humanity. Therefore, they got nothing. Therefore, frick them. Frick them. And you know why they don’t have loyalty? Convenience. And you know why? Because it’s hard to be loyal. It’s actually hard. I’ll be a son of a gun. “Yeah. Yeah, it sounds great. Give it to me. Give it to me. Paint me with it. Yeah, it’s great. Yeah, I’m loyal. Yeah, I’m great. Yeah, this is good. I’m ready. I’m on that team. I’m ready. Put me in, Coach. I’m ready.”
Without loyalty, we’re dead, we’re vessels. I never understood what a ghost ship was. You know what? As I got older, I know what a ghost ship is. It’s people. It’s people that are empty. They got no loyalty, therefore they got no humanity. Therefore, they got nothing. Therefore, frick them. Frick them. And you know why they don’t have loyalty? Convenience. And you know why? Because it’s hard to be loyal. It’s actually hard. I’ll be a son of a gun. “Yeah. Yeah, it sounds great. Give it to me. Give it to me. Paint me with it. Yeah, it’s great. Yeah, I’m loyal. Yeah, I’m great. Yeah, this is good. I’m ready. I’m on that team. I’m ready. Put me in, Coach. I’m ready.”
“Okay. Now, you’re going to have to get hurt here.” “What do you mean, get hurt?” “Oh, well, it’s going to be painful. I mean, to be loyal, you’re going to be in danger because the person that you committed your loyalty to, for a reason, because obviously you did something in your life, whatever, whatever, you’re actually going to get hurt to be loyal to them. You’re actually going to…” “Hold on a minute. Wait. Hold on a minute, Coach. Hold on. Call time out here. Let me think about this, Coach. I might need more practice. I’m not ready for the game. I’m not ready to go in the game yet. Give me a little more practice, Coach.” It hurts to be loyal. It fricking hurts. But without loyalty, we’re ghost ships. We got no strength. We got nothing. We got nothing. We got nothing.
Mike Tyson
Lex Fridman
I agree with you in a deep fundamental sense, but there’s pain that comes with that. I have to ask you to introspect on this part of your life. Because of your value for loyalty, as people know, you and Cus D’Amato trained young Mike Tyson, and the interaction there between the three of you led to the three of you parting ways. Given your value for loyalty, can you tell the full story of what led up to this and maybe the pain you felt from that?
I agree with you in a deep fundamental sense, but there’s pain that comes with that. I have to ask you to introspect on this part of your life. Because of your value for loyalty, as people know, you and Cus D’Amato trained young Mike Tyson, and the interaction there between the three of you led to the three of you parting ways. Given your value for loyalty, can you tell the full story of what led up to this and maybe the pain you felt from that?
Teddy Atlas
I guess it was the second time in my life I felt betrayed. The first time was when I was whatever, young, 17, and I got arrested. I was with all these older guys, tough guys, whatever, supposedly, and the detectives separated us. That’s what they do. And they asked me who did whatever? Whose gun? This, that, all that, the particulars of obviously what we did. And it was me. And they said, “You sure? You don’t want to change that? Because your friends changed it.”
I guess it was the second time in my life I felt betrayed. The first time was when I was whatever, young, 17, and I got arrested. I was with all these older guys, tough guys, whatever, supposedly, and the detectives separated us. That’s what they do. And they asked me who did whatever? Whose gun? This, that, all that, the particulars of obviously what we did. And it was me. And they said, “You sure? You don’t want to change that? Because your friends changed it.”
And these cops, they were nasty, but they were cops. They were, “You’re going to wind up in Rikers and they’re going to be doing this to you.” And I won’t even say the things because, then, why say them? Figure it out. But they’re trying to get what they’re trying to get. And, “You want to change it?” And, “No.” But I felt very betrayed and especially when I was standing in the cell at Rikers looking at the airplanes leave LaGuardia Airport. And then hoping I was on one. I was making a deal with God that, “Let me be on one of those planes and let it crash. I’ll take a shot.”
Lex Fridman
Was part of you proud that you didn’t give up your friends?
Was part of you proud that you didn’t give up your friends?
Teddy Atlas
No, because I didn’t understand what proud was. I didn’t understand nothing. I just understood that-
No, because I didn’t understand what proud was. I didn’t understand nothing. I just understood that-
Lex Fridman
Rules are rules. You’re just loyal and that’s it?
Rules are rules. You’re just loyal and that’s it?
Teddy Atlas
I didn’t even know there was an option. I know the cops said, “You could do this,” but there was no option. My father never had an option. But the betrayal, the private betrayal was like… And so we were partners, me and Cus. Cus was retired. This stupid kid goes up there and all of a sudden I start training fighters. First, I wanted the gloves. Cus put me in the gloves. I wanted gloves. Then I had an injury, whatever. But bottom line is I still want to fight. I want to turn pro. I want to fight. That was the plan. And Cus had a different plan. Cus was like, “You can’t.”
I didn’t even know there was an option. I know the cops said, “You could do this,” but there was no option. My father never had an option. But the betrayal, the private betrayal was like… And so we were partners, me and Cus. Cus was retired. This stupid kid goes up there and all of a sudden I start training fighters. First, I wanted the gloves. Cus put me in the gloves. I wanted gloves. Then I had an injury, whatever. But bottom line is I still want to fight. I want to turn pro. I want to fight. That was the plan. And Cus had a different plan. Cus was like, “You can’t.”
And he had it set up a little bit, whatever. Without getting into it, hey, he did me a favor. I’d like to think he knew he was doing me a favor. And you know what? I do think he was. He was doing himself a little bit one too. But he was doing it for the greater course because he believed in this thing of boxing. He believed that it changed lives. He believed that it was worthwhile. He believed that there was a power to it beyond the left hook.
Lex Fridman
The big picture of boxing.
The big picture of boxing.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
He believed in it.
He believed in it.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, he believed that to be a champion, you had to be special, you had to be smart, you had to have character, that you had to be a better person, and that you couldn’t make a champion if you didn’t make him a better person first, and that this could strengthen people. The sport could strengthen people in those ways. So he was married to it. He was old and there was no one in the gym. It was empty. It was above a police station, which was crazy. He needed an heir to the throne. He needed to pass it on to someone.
Yeah, he believed that to be a champion, you had to be special, you had to be smart, you had to have character, that you had to be a better person, and that you couldn’t make a champion if you didn’t make him a better person first, and that this could strengthen people. The sport could strengthen people in those ways. So he was married to it. He was old and there was no one in the gym. It was empty. It was above a police station, which was crazy. He needed an heir to the throne. He needed to pass it on to someone.
And he saw something, and all of a sudden he saw that my career as a boxer was less important than having me become his heir to the throne and becoming his trainer, his man, his guy, to continue, that we could do a lot more for him and for everyone. Not just for him but for everyone. It was more like to keep it going. It couldn’t die. It couldn’t die. Cus was afraid it would die with him. And he committed his whole life to it. He didn’t get married because of boxing. So he saw me as the little bit of the seed to plant for more things to grow before that plant died. And so all of a sudden he says, “You can’t fight.” I had people tell me that I could go somewhere else and fight. And I could, but I couldn’t because I’d be disloyal.
Lex Fridman
Loyalty is everything.
Loyalty is everything.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. So I couldn’t leave Cus, and he kind of knew that. And so I couldn’t leave him. And he said, “You have an ability to teach.” He said, “Knowledge means nothing.” He said, “See these Britannica…” He had Britannica encyclopedias, the whole set, in our library. He said, “You see these?” “Yeah, I see them.” ” All the knowledge of the world, whatever, is in these.” “All right.” “Means nothing if you don’t have somebody to convey it to people. Otherwise, it just sits on a bookshelf and looks good.” He goes, “You have the ability to convey knowledge to people. You’re a teacher. You were born to be a teacher. You’d lessen yourself by only being a champion fighter because you’d only take care of one person. You could take care of all kinds of people and you could do this and you could do that and you could do this.”
Yeah. So I couldn’t leave Cus, and he kind of knew that. And so I couldn’t leave him. And he said, “You have an ability to teach.” He said, “Knowledge means nothing.” He said, “See these Britannica…” He had Britannica encyclopedias, the whole set, in our library. He said, “You see these?” “Yeah, I see them.” ” All the knowledge of the world, whatever, is in these.” “All right.” “Means nothing if you don’t have somebody to convey it to people. Otherwise, it just sits on a bookshelf and looks good.” He goes, “You have the ability to convey knowledge to people. You’re a teacher. You were born to be a teacher. You’d lessen yourself by only being a champion fighter because you’d only take care of one person. You could take care of all kinds of people and you could do this and you could do that and you could do this.”
So we go on this venture. Took a minute, because I didn’t believe him at first, but finally I am, I’m there, I’m training fighters. Then he gets me to buy in, and I was a teacher. I start teaching these kids, and there’s no one in the gym. It’s dead. And all of a sudden there’s 10 kids, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45. Catskill Boxing Club, which was never there. Now it’s there. And I’m training fighters. I’m taking them down to South Bronx to get experience, one of his former fighters, Nelson Cuevas, down to South Bronx. I’m taking him down there to get smokers, to get fights when they’re ready after I teach.
I’m wearing out dungarees. I’m getting holes in my dungarees. I was fashionable for it was fashionable to have holes in my dungarees. I could have made a lot of money with that because I was on my knees with these little kids, nine years old, 10 years old, eight years old, 10, 12, 13, 14, all these kids. I’m teaching them and I’m building a gym. Cus only came once a week because he was semi-retired, and he’s home. When he would come once a week, he knew he couldn’t give me money, but he gave me more than money. He gave me praise. And he said, “Look what Atlas is doing. He’s creating champions.” And I was like, “Whoa. Yeah. Wow. I’m doing good.”
And then all of a sudden after four years of that, because I was up there seven years, eight years, eight years, after about three and a half, four years of that, we get a phone call that they got this kid in prison, in Tryon prison, from one of the guys that knew Cus, Matt Baranski. There’s a correction officer named Bobby Stewart who used to box, and Cus had helped him out a little bit. A little bit. They knew we had this gym. Now that was really starting to become something because we were winning tournaments and everything else. They go, ” We got this kid, Mike Tyson. He’s 12 years old, he’s 190 pounds, and he’s a mess. But Bobby Stewart got involved with him, the former fighter, and he’s taken a liking to it. And now where he didn’t behave at all and he didn’t listen to anyone, now he’s listening because Bobby’s got a carrot and the carrot is he’d teach him boxing. And now he’s at the point now where we want you to take a look, you and Teddy.” “All right. Bring him down.”
Lex Fridman
What’d you think when you first saw Mike Tyson?
What’d you think when you first saw Mike Tyson?
Teddy Atlas
Well, I wanted to see his birth certificate because he’s 190 pounds, 12 years old and all solid. Really? But, yeah.
Well, I wanted to see his birth certificate because he’s 190 pounds, 12 years old and all solid. Really? But, yeah.
Lex Fridman
Just physically, just as a physical specimen?
Just physically, just as a physical specimen?
Teddy Atlas
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Big guy?
Big guy?
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. And listen, Cus was right, I was a teacher. He was right. And he was testing me even that day. He said, “What do you think?” So I said, “Well, we ain’t going to know nothing hitting the bag. Who the frick cares about that? He knocked the bag down. We got to put him in with… We got no one to put them in that way.” I didn’t have anyone that way. We got to test him. Everyone’s got to be tested. So you got to put them in responsibly. But, “Let’s put him in, just responsible, but let’s put him in with Bobby Stewart.” Former pro fighter, had 14 pro fights. Smaller than Tyson. When he was fighting he was 175. But still, he’s 28 years old. Tyson’s 12. Come on. “And he’ll work with him, right?”
Yeah. And listen, Cus was right, I was a teacher. He was right. And he was testing me even that day. He said, “What do you think?” So I said, “Well, we ain’t going to know nothing hitting the bag. Who the frick cares about that? He knocked the bag down. We got to put him in with… We got no one to put them in that way.” I didn’t have anyone that way. We got to test him. Everyone’s got to be tested. So you got to put them in responsibly. But, “Let’s put him in, just responsible, but let’s put him in with Bobby Stewart.” Former pro fighter, had 14 pro fights. Smaller than Tyson. When he was fighting he was 175. But still, he’s 28 years old. Tyson’s 12. Come on. “And he’ll work with him, right?”
So we do, we put him in. Tyson, he recognized the moment. He understood this was an audition, this was a chance. This was that TV show, Change Your Life. He understood that if he passed the audition, he could possibly change his life. He wasn’t sure what. How could he be sure what exactly? But it was better than what he had. And so he was on audition. So he innately understood what we would want to see: ferocious, toughness, character, desire, and, of course, ability. Well, we saw the ability, power, speed, but it was unbridled. It was untaught. It was raw. He didn’t know really much at all. At all. But we saw that.
But he wanted to show more. He knew that wasn’t enough. Again, innate intelligence. He had to show desire. He had to show toughness. And so I was being responsible. After two rounds, that’s enough. Normally, I don’t put a guy in to box until maybe four months, five months, six months, eight months, 10. It depends what it takes to learn on the floor before it’s responsible to put them in the ring to actually take on incoming real live shells instead of blanks. And so normally I wouldn’t have him in. And I knew after today, he wouldn’t be in the ring again if I trained him. I would teach him first and then he’d get back in in a few months. But for this day, it was the only way.
I used to make this announcement and Cus loved it. He said, “What’s training a fighter? What do you look for training a fighter, Teddy?” He asked me these ridiculous questions just to test me. And I say, “It’s like going to Macy’s…” Oh, he loved it. I said, “It’s like go to Macy’s window on Christmas.” He goes, “What do you mean, Macy’s window?” Cus was like, boom, boom, boom. So, “What do you mean, Macy’s window?” “You go to Macy’s window and they got the window with everything you want to see, everything in there. And it looks great, everything.” “Yeah? And then what?” “Well, then you ask, ‘What’s in the warehouse?’ and they tell you, ‘Nothing.'” And then Cus says, “That’s it. That’s the trainer.” And I wanted to see what was in the warehouse. Because I saw what was in Macy’s window. I saw the power, I saw the speed.
So he goes two rounds and he gets a bloody nose. Here’s the weird thing, not weird, very telling. We knew what we were doing. I’m not bragging, but we knew what we were doing because he got a bloody nose because he got hit. After that, he never got another bloody nose. You know why? He didn’t get hit. Because he learned. He was still strong, but he was smarter now. Anyway, he goes two rounds, and I saw, and I’m being responsible because if he goes more, it’s not responsible. I saw what I needed to see. I saw speed, I saw power, I saw athleticism. And I saw, I didn’t believe him. I thought he was lying to me. I’m just telling you. I thought he was lying, trying to act tough when he wasn’t really feeling tough. It didn’t matter.
Cus questioned me on it afterwards, “What did you see?” And when I said it, he goes, “Young master.” Again, he wasn’t paying me money so he had to give me something, right? And that was currency. “Young master.” I’m the young master? Whoa. “Young master.” You know what I mean? I felt like that guy, Kung Fu, like in the movie, like Kung Fu, “Grasshopper, when you’re ready, when can take this out of my hand, you can leave.” And-
Lex Fridman
That’s powerful.
That’s powerful.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, it was. It worked. Cus knew how to work me. And he did. And it worked. But you know what? I didn’t mind being worked. I kind of knew I was being shuffled a little bit.
Yeah, it was. It worked. Cus knew how to work me. And he did. And it worked. But you know what? I didn’t mind being worked. I kind of knew I was being shuffled a little bit.
Lex Fridman
Well, you’re making it sound a little bit negative, but it’s also extremely positive. That’s a teacher instilling wisdom into you that you carried forward and it impacted a lot of people.
Well, you’re making it sound a little bit negative, but it’s also extremely positive. That’s a teacher instilling wisdom into you that you carried forward and it impacted a lot of people.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. Cus got the job done, but he did it his way, and he did it for a myriad of reasons. But at the end of the day it was all good, and I just had to understand that eventually later on. But-
Yeah. Cus got the job done, but he did it his way, and he did it for a myriad of reasons. But at the end of the day it was all good, and I just had to understand that eventually later on. But-
Lex Fridman
And you do the same. You do things your way and carry some of him in you, some of your father in you.
And you do the same. You do things your way and carry some of him in you, some of your father in you.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. That day it was funny because when Cus said, “What did you see, Teddy, with him?” After two rounds, I got up on the ring. I knew I was going to train him. Obviously, we weren’t going to say no. He still had about four months to serve, and we were going to work it out. And when I got up on the ring apron, that’s my gym, I’m the boss. People later on in life called me a dictator. You know what I said? “Yeah, you’re right.” I didn’t deny it. People thought it. “You mean I’m right?” “Yeah, I’m a dictator. I’m a trainer. I’m the boss. I’m in charge. You wouldn’t be here if I wasn’t. What the frick you need me for if I’m not fricking in charge, you idiot? Yeah, yeah. Damn right. Well, what do you think, it’s a shared responsibility? No, it’s my responsibility. That’s why you’re here. Yeah, I am in charge. You shouldn’t be here if you don’t understand that.”
Yeah. That day it was funny because when Cus said, “What did you see, Teddy, with him?” After two rounds, I got up on the ring. I knew I was going to train him. Obviously, we weren’t going to say no. He still had about four months to serve, and we were going to work it out. And when I got up on the ring apron, that’s my gym, I’m the boss. People later on in life called me a dictator. You know what I said? “Yeah, you’re right.” I didn’t deny it. People thought it. “You mean I’m right?” “Yeah, I’m a dictator. I’m a trainer. I’m the boss. I’m in charge. You wouldn’t be here if I wasn’t. What the frick you need me for if I’m not fricking in charge, you idiot? Yeah, yeah. Damn right. Well, what do you think, it’s a shared responsibility? No, it’s my responsibility. That’s why you’re here. Yeah, I am in charge. You shouldn’t be here if you don’t understand that.”
So I get up there and I know that I’m going to be training him. I got to show him who the boss is. I’m being really frank about this. So I get up there, I say, “That’s it. Out.” “No, no,” this is Tyson, “No, let me go. I want to do another round. I want to do another one.” “I said out. Did you hear what I said?” Because I knew that he was going to test me. He was testing me. I said, “I said get out.” He got out.
Lex Fridman
But were you impressed with the fact that he wanted to keep going, or no?
But were you impressed with the fact that he wanted to keep going, or no?
Teddy Atlas
Yes, and I recognized what it really was. So Cus asked me, “What was that?” Cus wanted to know what the young master saw. So Cus said, “What was that?” I said, “It was an act.” He goes, “You saw that? Did he really want to go?” I said, “No.” I said, “He didn’t really want to go, but he knew that we wanted him to go, and he made himself ready to go in order to satisfy, and that’s just as good.” And Cus said, “Damn right it’s just as good. All that matters was not how he got there, but that he got there. That’s all that matters, that he got there. That he got to the place to act like a fighter, to do what we want him to do. To be ready to persevere, to go beyond the comfort level, to do another round. He didn’t want to, damn right he didn’t want to, but he knew we wanted him to, and he knew in order to pass the test, he had to do it.”
Yes, and I recognized what it really was. So Cus asked me, “What was that?” Cus wanted to know what the young master saw. So Cus said, “What was that?” I said, “It was an act.” He goes, “You saw that? Did he really want to go?” I said, “No.” I said, “He didn’t really want to go, but he knew that we wanted him to go, and he made himself ready to go in order to satisfy, and that’s just as good.” And Cus said, “Damn right it’s just as good. All that matters was not how he got there, but that he got there. That’s all that matters, that he got there. That he got to the place to act like a fighter, to do what we want him to do. To be ready to persevere, to go beyond the comfort level, to do another round. He didn’t want to, damn right he didn’t want to, but he knew we wanted him to, and he knew in order to pass the test, he had to do it.”
And he said, “You’re right.” He goes, “Now it’s going to be your job to teach him, to make him a fighter that don’t get bloody noses, that don’t get hit and will get to that place without being chorused to get there, to get to that place on his own, instead of using the things that he had to use to get to that place today. Those things are not going to be available one day when you…” And listen to this. You talk about a man being prophetic. Cus was pretty good. You talk about a man being on the job, on the money, Lex. How do you think he finishes the sentence? He goes, “Because you’re going to have to make sure that he learns these things because he’ll be your first heavyweight champ.” “What did you just say?”
He’s 12 years old. He’s been arrested 30 times. He’s getting out of jail, out of juvenile detention, Tryon. He’s a mess in a lot of ways. There’s a lot of things we find out later, a lot of problems, weaknesses. He goes, “And that’s part of your job. That’ll be part of your job.” But he really said that. And then he turned to him, he goes, “You want to come live with us, young man? You want to be a fighter?” “Yes.” Even that, Cus said to me later, “What do you think about that?” I said-
Lex Fridman
The way he said, “Yes”?
The way he said, “Yes”?
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, the way he said, “Yes. Yes, sir.” Yeah. He said, “What do you think about that?” And we’re talking, I said, “He ain’t going to be that polite in a little while down the road. Again, he knew that that’s what he felt that he needed to project himself as, to present himself as to get to where he want to get to.” He goes, “Yeah, yeah.”
Yeah, the way he said, “Yes. Yes, sir.” Yeah. He said, “What do you think about that?” And we’re talking, I said, “He ain’t going to be that polite in a little while down the road. Again, he knew that that’s what he felt that he needed to project himself as, to present himself as to get to where he want to get to.” He goes, “Yeah, yeah.”
Lex Fridman
Did you see what Cus was seeing in terms of the heavyweight champion of the world?
Did you see what Cus was seeing in terms of the heavyweight champion of the world?
Teddy Atlas
No. Again, the easiest answer would be yes. Teddy’s just a-
No. Again, the easiest answer would be yes. Teddy’s just a-
Lex Fridman
Teddy knows.
Teddy knows.
Teddy Atlas
… genius. Wow, wow. Wow. No, no, no, no. But again, it was my job. And my job, it was simple, simpler than Cus’. Cus knew too much. I knew nothing. I just knew rudiments of boxing. I knew what it took to be a fighter and how to execute it, the steps of executing it. So I took those steps. The rest of it, you get blurred by those other things. I wasn’t blurred by those other things. It was just, “Get them in the gym, make them mentally stronger, make them face things, and teach them how to slip punches. And create holes, and fill those fricking holes with devastating punches,” this is Cus, “And what are you going to do?” “I’m going to teach them to fill holes and fill them with punches with bad intentions.” And that became the moniker. And then Tyson would say that, “I’m throwing punches with bad intentions.” Yes, you are.
… genius. Wow, wow. Wow. No, no, no, no. But again, it was my job. And my job, it was simple, simpler than Cus’. Cus knew too much. I knew nothing. I just knew rudiments of boxing. I knew what it took to be a fighter and how to execute it, the steps of executing it. So I took those steps. The rest of it, you get blurred by those other things. I wasn’t blurred by those other things. It was just, “Get them in the gym, make them mentally stronger, make them face things, and teach them how to slip punches. And create holes, and fill those fricking holes with devastating punches,” this is Cus, “And what are you going to do?” “I’m going to teach them to fill holes and fill them with punches with bad intentions.” And that became the moniker. And then Tyson would say that, “I’m throwing punches with bad intentions.” Yes, you are.
Lex Fridman
How do you make him mentally tougher? So that part of the job, you said the, “Don’t get a bloody nose,” but the part of the job where it makes him mentally tougher, how do you do that?
How do you make him mentally tougher? So that part of the job, you said the, “Don’t get a bloody nose,” but the part of the job where it makes him mentally tougher, how do you do that?
Teddy Atlas
Most important part of the job, to make him face things. Make him face where he’s lying to himself, where he’s submitting. What if we start this conversation with submission? Submit less, submit less, submit less every day, submit less. Cus only come to the gym once in a while. And if I had him sparring, he would come because that was his project, that was the heavyweight. Now he came. It put life in Cus. Cus had life. He was losing a little life, but that made the light bulb bright again. It did. And it was great to see. I felt proud of that. I felt connected to that.
Most important part of the job, to make him face things. Make him face where he’s lying to himself, where he’s submitting. What if we start this conversation with submission? Submit less, submit less, submit less every day, submit less. Cus only come to the gym once in a while. And if I had him sparring, he would come because that was his project, that was the heavyweight. Now he came. It put life in Cus. Cus had life. He was losing a little life, but that made the light bulb bright again. It did. And it was great to see. I felt proud of that. I felt connected to that.
That’s why when it all went bad and Cus took the side, the only side he could take, the side of the next heavyweight champ of the world, but he left me, his partner, the young master… And for the second time I get betrayed. And I’m like, for a while I thought everything Cus taught me, said to me was a lie, and I didn’t want to be any part of it anymore until I got a little more mature and I got a little past that where I was able to understand. I was able to understand that just because somebody that you perceived as great in every area you find to be weak in certain areas doesn’t mean that they can’t still be what they want to you. It’s something that can be understood or forgiven.
But yeah, it’s hard. It’s hard to get to that place, to forgive somebody in that kind of way that I felt betrayed. Because Cus told me the most important thing was loyalty. Cus told me he loved me because I was loyal. Cus told people that the reason that he went to court was because I didn’t give up anybody.
Teddy Atlas
… to court was because I didn’t give up anybody, even though it meant put me in the risk of going to jail for 10 years because felt that he admired those traits. And so I assumed that he would show the same traits. And he took a deal. He took a deal. He took a deal. He signed the papers that those so-called Feds of mine signed. He took a deal to have the future heavyweight champion, as it turned out, and to let me go. To sign the deal to let me take the weight.
… to court was because I didn’t give up anybody, even though it meant put me in the risk of going to jail for 10 years because felt that he admired those traits. And so I assumed that he would show the same traits. And he took a deal. He took a deal. He took a deal. He signed the papers that those so-called Feds of mine signed. He took a deal to have the future heavyweight champion, as it turned out, and to let me go. To sign the deal to let me take the weight.
Lex Fridman
For people who don’t know, Mike was inappropriate with a young girl and you pulled the gun on him. I don’t know if there’s deeper things to say about that situation.
For people who don’t know, Mike was inappropriate with a young girl and you pulled the gun on him. I don’t know if there’s deeper things to say about that situation.
Teddy Atlas
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
But why do you think Cus made the decision to cut you off from both Mike Tyson and from Cus D’Amato? To break that when he valued loyalty so much.
But why do you think Cus made the decision to cut you off from both Mike Tyson and from Cus D’Amato? To break that when he valued loyalty so much.
Teddy Atlas
I served my purpose. I got him to where he needed to get. Brought life back in the gym. If I wasn’t in the gym at that particular time, Tyson never would’ve been in the gym. There would’ve been no gym to bring him to when they called up and made that phone call to bring him to the gym. There would’ve been no activity. There would’ve been no boxing program. There would’ve been no training, training him 247 the way I was, where Cus wasn’t capable of doing that at that point in his life.
I served my purpose. I got him to where he needed to get. Brought life back in the gym. If I wasn’t in the gym at that particular time, Tyson never would’ve been in the gym. There would’ve been no gym to bring him to when they called up and made that phone call to bring him to the gym. There would’ve been no activity. There would’ve been no boxing program. There would’ve been no training, training him 247 the way I was, where Cus wasn’t capable of doing that at that point in his life.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
But then again, it’s not poor Teddy. I got the benefit of a career, I got the benefit of knowledge, I got the benefit of a life, I got the benefit of learning, of becoming hopefully a better person. I got the benefit of being betrayed again.
But then again, it’s not poor Teddy. I got the benefit of a career, I got the benefit of knowledge, I got the benefit of a life, I got the benefit of learning, of becoming hopefully a better person. I got the benefit of being betrayed again.
Lex Fridman
That’s a hell of a statement right there. I don’t know what the benefit of that is.
That’s a hell of a statement right there. I don’t know what the benefit of that is.
Teddy Atlas
You can learn to forgive weakness when you realize how easy it is to be weak. And when you realize that… somebody asked me, how did you get to the point where you could forgive? It’s a pretty good question. Pretty simple, pretty basic, pretty important. And I didn’t understand, I understood. But I did understand immediately, for me. I said, “How can I not forgive somebody?” It becomes easier to learn how to forgive when you’re still trying to forgive yourself, when you’re still in the process of trying to forgive yourself for all your own inherent weaknesses and betrayals of people like my father in different ways that we forget very easily because it’s handy and it’s a way of surviving. It’s a lot easier to figure it out, rationalize it, to find forgiveness when you realize that you still haven’t figured out completely how to forgive yourself. I’m still trying to figure that out.
You can learn to forgive weakness when you realize how easy it is to be weak. And when you realize that… somebody asked me, how did you get to the point where you could forgive? It’s a pretty good question. Pretty simple, pretty basic, pretty important. And I didn’t understand, I understood. But I did understand immediately, for me. I said, “How can I not forgive somebody?” It becomes easier to learn how to forgive when you’re still trying to forgive yourself, when you’re still in the process of trying to forgive yourself for all your own inherent weaknesses and betrayals of people like my father in different ways that we forget very easily because it’s handy and it’s a way of surviving. It’s a lot easier to figure it out, rationalize it, to find forgiveness when you realize that you still haven’t figured out completely how to forgive yourself. I’m still trying to figure that out.
And so that helped me figure out how to forgive Cus because to figure out how to forgive me, I had to understood why I did these things. Where the weaknesses came from, where the selfishness came from, where the convenience came from. That they really existed. But they didn’t exist for malice, they existed for me not being prepared to understand that I could be stronger, to want to be stronger. And then I looked at Cus. He wanted to be stronger, but he got to a point in life where he had been strong for a lot of his life. He was strong with me, he was strong with a lot of things in his life. And does everyone deserve a pass in life?
He got to a place where everything was in one basket, the basket of boxing. He once told me that he never got married because it would’ve been selfish to a woman to have gotten married when his whole life was boxing. That he couldn’t give to her kid, he couldn’t give to her. And then I thought about it. He had no money, really. And Jim Jacobs and Bill Caden took care of the bills, so he didn’t really need money that way. But what was the payoff of that kind of life, that kind of commitment, that kind of sacrifice? Really, what was the payoff? The payoff was to have champions. To have a champion that would keep your name alive.
That word legacy, what does it mean? Sometimes it’s just a word, sometimes it’s more than a word. It’s a reprieve. It’s a pension plan. It’s being given a pension on your way out for the rest of your life, for your life wherever you’re going. You’re going to wherever you’re going for eternity. It’s the only thing that you take with you, is what you left behind. And for Cus it was all about leaving behind a mark. A mark of a champion. Yeah, it was attached to ego. We all have it. Yeah, it was attached to some selfishness and all. But yeah, it was also attached to wanting to leave something great behind.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
To know that you were part of it. That you existed for a reason. That you sacrificed for a reason. And all that freaking pain I brought my father, I was searching for something. Yeah, I made it into a righteous search. I made it into… I did. And I made it into, “It was okay because it was righteous,” but it still did damage. It still did damage. It still hurt people. It still betrayed my father’s trust. And Cus betrayed mine, but he didn’t do it maliciously. He did it out of, again… my father came home… this is how I’m going to connect it. My father came home from work one night, 12:00. And I was waiting on him. And like I said, I was nine, 10 years old. And he got mad at me. He goes, “Go to bed. What are you doing up?” I said, “I’m waiting for you. Waiting for you.” And he said, “Well, go to bed.” I said, “No. What were you doing?” He said, “I was at the hospital.” “Why were you there so late?”
To know that you were part of it. That you existed for a reason. That you sacrificed for a reason. And all that freaking pain I brought my father, I was searching for something. Yeah, I made it into a righteous search. I made it into… I did. And I made it into, “It was okay because it was righteous,” but it still did damage. It still did damage. It still hurt people. It still betrayed my father’s trust. And Cus betrayed mine, but he didn’t do it maliciously. He did it out of, again… my father came home… this is how I’m going to connect it. My father came home from work one night, 12:00. And I was waiting on him. And like I said, I was nine, 10 years old. And he got mad at me. He goes, “Go to bed. What are you doing up?” I said, “I’m waiting for you. Waiting for you.” And he said, “Well, go to bed.” I said, “No. What were you doing?” He said, “I was at the hospital.” “Why were you there so late?”
He answered me. He said, “There was a patient. There was a sick patient.” I said, ” He must be better now because you’re his doctor,” because my father could fix anything. My father, nothing got in the way of the truth. Nothing. Nothing. Even blowing his son’s bubble. Matter-of-factly he said to me, “No, he’s not going to get better. He’s going to die.” So as a 9-year-old kid, you’re a kid, you’re selfish, not in a bad way but you want what you… and I said two things. First I said, “How? You’re his doctor. How? It can’t be.” And then I said, I said it almost angry, “Then why were you there? You should’ve been here with me.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
And you know what he said to me? “Because you don’t give up on life. Go to bed.”
And you know what he said to me? “Because you don’t give up on life. Go to bed.”
Lex Fridman
Don’t give up on life.
Don’t give up on life.
Teddy Atlas
And I finally connected the dots. This idiot that didn’t graduate high school, I finally connected the dots. I was asking Cus to give up on life. You don’t give up on life. You don’t give up on aspirations of life. Life is all forms of life. It doesn’t have to be a physical form of it. It’s life. It’s having a reason to be alive. It’s having a reason to have tomorrow. And Cus’s only reason to have tomorrow was to have another heavyweight champ.
And I finally connected the dots. This idiot that didn’t graduate high school, I finally connected the dots. I was asking Cus to give up on life. You don’t give up on life. You don’t give up on aspirations of life. Life is all forms of life. It doesn’t have to be a physical form of it. It’s life. It’s having a reason to be alive. It’s having a reason to have tomorrow. And Cus’s only reason to have tomorrow was to have another heavyweight champ.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, a champ.
Yeah, a champ.
Teddy Atlas
And Teddy Atlas, even though we were together all those years, and we were partners, and we trained together, and the only thing we didn’t do was what they did in the Indian movies where they cut the finger and they became blood brothers.
And Teddy Atlas, even though we were together all those years, and we were partners, and we trained together, and the only thing we didn’t do was what they did in the Indian movies where they cut the finger and they became blood brothers.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
That’s the only thing we didn’t do, and I felt like we did that without cutting. And now here we are, and he freaking betrayed me. The… and then all of a sudden I connected the dots. I was like, “He didn’t betray me in that cold sense, he didn’t give up on life.”
That’s the only thing we didn’t do, and I felt like we did that without cutting. And now here we are, and he freaking betrayed me. The… and then all of a sudden I connected the dots. I was like, “He didn’t betray me in that cold sense, he didn’t give up on life.”
Lex Fridman
Years later, Mike Tyson apologized to you. What’s meaningful to you about that? How does that fit the story?
Years later, Mike Tyson apologized to you. What’s meaningful to you about that? How does that fit the story?
Teddy Atlas
I want to be the great, gracious guy right now. Say, “Oh, I’m so human that a man’s man enough to say sorry, that’s it, we’re good.” I want to be, really. That’s the best presentation of Teddy Atlas I could put out there. He’s a good guy. He forgives. He’s a good guy. He’s a standup guy and he’s a good guy. I’m not sure. If he truly did it for himself, that he really did it because he felt that it was true. But if he’s persuaded by other things… he was in the middle. I know I’m taking it too deep, I know it, but what am I going to do?
I want to be the great, gracious guy right now. Say, “Oh, I’m so human that a man’s man enough to say sorry, that’s it, we’re good.” I want to be, really. That’s the best presentation of Teddy Atlas I could put out there. He’s a good guy. He forgives. He’s a good guy. He’s a standup guy and he’s a good guy. I’m not sure. If he truly did it for himself, that he really did it because he felt that it was true. But if he’s persuaded by other things… he was in the middle. I know I’m taking it too deep, I know it, but what am I going to do?
He was in the middle of 12 steps with the getting out of drugs, alcohol, 12 steps, which is a commemorable thing. Really, it is. And he’s taking the steps. Part of the steps was to admit all, to apologize to all people you offended in life. Okay. But are you doing it for the 12 steps or are you doing it because you really truly have come to terms with believing what you did was that hurtful to me, and that it matters to you that it was that hurtful to me, and that you were wrong in doing in it? Did you do it for… I know that’s deep. I know that I’m a freaking idiot. “Teddy, you should be better than that. He’s better than you.” Yeah, maybe he is better than me. Maybe he is. Really. Seriously, maybe he is. And I took it. He put his hand out. I took it. We hugged. He said, “I love you.”
Yeah. Yeah. But I want to believe. But what did Cus tell me? “No matter what a man says, it’s what he does in the end that he intended to do all along.” So to this day today, was it really genuine or was it reflexive of that moment for him to get what he needed for that step? Or was it truly for what I needed? That he really cared that what he did to me caused me to do what I did. Because I did something that was pretty bad to him, too. Is he able to deal with that and put that where it has to be put? Is he able to put that? Or is it just he did something he had to do and maybe he’s sorry he did it? Look, I appreciated that he… I would it’d rather been in a private place.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. So for people don’t know, you were in the middle of commentating a fight, and he walked up from behind you and he said he was sorry. He shook your hand, gave you a hug. I didn’t know. He said, “I love you.”
Yeah. So for people don’t know, you were in the middle of commentating a fight, and he walked up from behind you and he said he was sorry. He shook your hand, gave you a hug. I didn’t know. He said, “I love you.”
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, he’s emotional. I get emotional a little bit, too. But he’s emotional and he can be… I can see why people have a fascination and a love affair with him right now, because he was the meteor that went across the sky that, if they didn’t see it, their parents told them about it. There was a meteor that came across the sky one day.
Yeah, he’s emotional. I get emotional a little bit, too. But he’s emotional and he can be… I can see why people have a fascination and a love affair with him right now, because he was the meteor that went across the sky that, if they didn’t see it, their parents told them about it. There was a meteor that came across the sky one day.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
And the meteor is walking around in the room now, and that’s the meteorite. And it actually landed here, and that’s it right there. And now he’s come a long way. And now he’s more human and he’s lovable and compassionate and he cries. And I get the fascinating, I get the love affair. I get it because, inherently, we’re people that want to forgive. We’re people that, we want to be good, and part of being good is to forgive people and to show compassion to people. And when somebody’s been damaged, to acknowledge they’ve been damaged, to acknowledge that you know they’ve been damaged, and you care about them being damaged. And how do you show care? Through admiration. In some ways almost through adulation. And he’s getting adulation from people, which is to an incredible level. And it’s a phenomena, but I get it. I understand it. And I don’t know if he gets it. I don’t know if underneath all of this… he’s a complex guy. He’s a sensitive guy. I don’t know… And I am, too.
And the meteor is walking around in the room now, and that’s the meteorite. And it actually landed here, and that’s it right there. And now he’s come a long way. And now he’s more human and he’s lovable and compassionate and he cries. And I get the fascinating, I get the love affair. I get it because, inherently, we’re people that want to forgive. We’re people that, we want to be good, and part of being good is to forgive people and to show compassion to people. And when somebody’s been damaged, to acknowledge they’ve been damaged, to acknowledge that you know they’ve been damaged, and you care about them being damaged. And how do you show care? Through admiration. In some ways almost through adulation. And he’s getting adulation from people, which is to an incredible level. And it’s a phenomena, but I get it. I understand it. And I don’t know if he gets it. I don’t know if underneath all of this… he’s a complex guy. He’s a sensitive guy. I don’t know… And I am, too.
Lex Fridman
One complex guy talking about another complex guy.
One complex guy talking about another complex guy.
Teddy Atlas
I don’t know if, underneath it all, where he’s really truly at as far as that day that he said that to me.
I don’t know if, underneath it all, where he’s really truly at as far as that day that he said that to me.
Lex Fridman
Is there part of you that’s sorry to Mike for-
Is there part of you that’s sorry to Mike for-
Teddy Atlas
I’m not sorry.
I’m not sorry.
Lex Fridman
Pulling the gun on him?
Pulling the gun on him?
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. And listen, that’s fair. I know dimensions of human nature too well to not know that he still has to have certain… because I have those strong feelings. What? It’s not fair for him to have them? Damn right, it’s fair. Now, he could look at it, if he was to be held to his word, that night that he just acknowledges that what happened, he deserved because of the position he put me in and he put himself in, what he did. And I wouldn’t change nothing.
Yeah. And listen, that’s fair. I know dimensions of human nature too well to not know that he still has to have certain… because I have those strong feelings. What? It’s not fair for him to have them? Damn right, it’s fair. Now, he could look at it, if he was to be held to his word, that night that he just acknowledges that what happened, he deserved because of the position he put me in and he put himself in, what he did. And I wouldn’t change nothing.
Lex Fridman
Still, you don’t regret pulling the gun on him?
Still, you don’t regret pulling the gun on him?
Teddy Atlas
I regret that I had to.
I regret that I had to.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, I regret very much that I had to. I regret very much.
Yeah, I regret very much that I had to. I regret very much.
Lex Fridman
He crossed the line.
He crossed the line.
Teddy Atlas
I hated him for putting me in that position. How dare he think that somebody’s feelings are that trivial? That the way I would feel about myself and the way the girl would feel about herself, that was 11 years old at the time, how she would feel about herself. How dare that he think it’s that trivial that I shouldn’t be ready freaking to both die and kill for that?
I hated him for putting me in that position. How dare he think that somebody’s feelings are that trivial? That the way I would feel about myself and the way the girl would feel about herself, that was 11 years old at the time, how she would feel about herself. How dare that he think it’s that trivial that I shouldn’t be ready freaking to both die and kill for that?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Why didn’t Cus D’Amato see it in a deeper way and talk through it?
Yeah. Why didn’t Cus D’Amato see it in a deeper way and talk through it?
Teddy Atlas
He did. The word came back to me but, of course, what does it mean? But the word came back to me that Cus said, “You were right.” But if he took the side of Teddy, he would destroy potentially a great fighter.
He did. The word came back to me but, of course, what does it mean? But the word came back to me that Cus said, “You were right.” But if he took the side of Teddy, he would destroy potentially a great fighter.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think that? Okay, if you were to try to understand the point he was making, why is that true? Isn’t the part of greatness that you said is building the character of knowing what is right?
Why do you think that? Okay, if you were to try to understand the point he was making, why is that true? Isn’t the part of greatness that you said is building the character of knowing what is right?
Teddy Atlas
Cus was afraid to go there, where he used to not be afraid, because it’s kind of like you’re never afraid of going up. And I get it. When I train to fighter now, if I come out of retirement, I train to fighter now, I feel in camp like I’m on death row every day. Every day I try to retrace my memory and say, “Did I feel this way when I was younger? I don’t remember feeling this way.” I feel, every day, a dreadful feeling that if I don’t get this right, I betrayed everything. I betrayed the fighter’s trust, I betrayed what I’m supposed to be.
Cus was afraid to go there, where he used to not be afraid, because it’s kind of like you’re never afraid of going up. And I get it. When I train to fighter now, if I come out of retirement, I train to fighter now, I feel in camp like I’m on death row every day. Every day I try to retrace my memory and say, “Did I feel this way when I was younger? I don’t remember feeling this way.” I feel, every day, a dreadful feeling that if I don’t get this right, I betrayed everything. I betrayed the fighter’s trust, I betrayed what I’m supposed to be.
And then one day I tried to figure it out. Why do I feel this way? It’s so intense. I was in camp for two months training a guy for the world title a few years ago, fighting the hardest puncher in the world at the time, Adonis Stevenson, and the fighter was Ukrainian. And I was brought in to train him for that fight, and he trusted me and changed his whole style. Trusted me. Oh my God. I went to bed every night praying, dread. Waking up, dread. My stomach down to here. Saying, “What if I fail? What if everything that I told him was going to happen don’t happen? What if I fail him? What if he trusted me and I betrayed that trust?”
And the thing with Cus was he used to be stronger than that. And then I tried to figure it out, why I got this way and why it was so dreadful to me, and why I felt like I was on death row every day training a fighter. Like, “Did I do enough? Did I do right? Will we accomplish what I promised him we would accomplish? Would I keep my word?” And then I started thinking, how did I become this weak? How did I freaking become… I was a pretty strong freaking guy. How did I become this weak? And then finally I think I figured it out. You know why?
Lex Fridman
Hm?
Hm?
Teddy Atlas
Because I was always working to get up. But once I finally got up, now I was looking down. And it finally hit me. I said, “I didn’t want to lose.” I said, “There was nothing to lose on my way up.” Now, all of a sudden there’s something to lose when you’re up there and you’re looking down.
Because I was always working to get up. But once I finally got up, now I was looking down. And it finally hit me. I said, “I didn’t want to lose.” I said, “There was nothing to lose on my way up.” Now, all of a sudden there’s something to lose when you’re up there and you’re looking down.
Lex Fridman
And that’s where he was.
And that’s where he was.
Teddy Atlas
And that’s where Cus was. Cus was at the end of his rope. He accomplished two world champs, all this stuff, everything. And he did it right. Now all of a sudden it wasn’t about moving forward, it was about not falling down. Holy cow. I was like, “I got it, Cus. I got it. I got it. You didn’t want to fall down. Oh my God. You didn’t want to fall.” And this was his last chance. You don’t give up on life. This was his last chance to live forever. To make everything he did worthwhile. To have the youngest heavy… it wasn’t just heavyweight champ. You’ve got to remember he was the youngest heavyweight champ ever.
And that’s where Cus was. Cus was at the end of his rope. He accomplished two world champs, all this stuff, everything. And he did it right. Now all of a sudden it wasn’t about moving forward, it was about not falling down. Holy cow. I was like, “I got it, Cus. I got it. I got it. You didn’t want to fall down. Oh my God. You didn’t want to fall.” And this was his last chance. You don’t give up on life. This was his last chance to live forever. To make everything he did worthwhile. To have the youngest heavy… it wasn’t just heavyweight champ. You’ve got to remember he was the youngest heavyweight champ ever.
And to have that, it was okay to die now. And how’s loyalty to someone named Teddy Atlas going to get in the way of that? That’s a tidal wave that there ain’t no wall that’s been made high enough to stop that tidal wave. And now I’ll stop myself. Yeah, there is, but it would have to be an awful big one. And you know what? Who are we to say that we could ever build that wall that big? Who is any of us? Who am I to say?
Lex Fridman
Do you think, if you were to put yourself in the shoes of Cus D’Amato, can you see yourself having the big enough wall where you would choose loyalty?
Do you think, if you were to put yourself in the shoes of Cus D’Amato, can you see yourself having the big enough wall where you would choose loyalty?
Teddy Atlas
Now, if I answer the way I feel then I’m making myself John Wayne again.
Now, if I answer the way I feel then I’m making myself John Wayne again.
Lex Fridman
You don’t have to answer then. I think loyalty is important.
You don’t have to answer then. I think loyalty is important.
Teddy Atlas
No matter what a man says, it’s what he does in the end that he intended to do all along. I didn’t make that up, Cus did. And when this all went down, those words came freaking echoing into my freaking ears. I didn’t want them. Cotton doesn’t help. And they freaking kept coming into my ears. And what do you think? Still an immature kid at the time. I was young. Still an immature kid at the time. What the freak do you think my response was? You were full of…
No matter what a man says, it’s what he does in the end that he intended to do all along. I didn’t make that up, Cus did. And when this all went down, those words came freaking echoing into my freaking ears. I didn’t want them. Cotton doesn’t help. And they freaking kept coming into my ears. And what do you think? Still an immature kid at the time. I was young. Still an immature kid at the time. What the freak do you think my response was? You were full of…
Lex Fridman
Yeah, shit.
Yeah, shit.
Teddy Atlas
But I got past that.
But I got past that.
Lex Fridman
Do you forgive Cus? Have you found forgiveness?
Do you forgive Cus? Have you found forgiveness?
Teddy Atlas
Listen, I forgive him because he gave me more than he took away from me. What kind of man am I if I can’t at least acknowledge that and be grateful for that? He gave me more than he took from me, and I’m grateful for that. I’m also grateful for what I gave him, that I did give him something, and at that point in his life. A place to still have test tubes and chemistry experiments. A laboratory where he could still create a great fighter. And I helped give them that. I was part of that lab and making sure that lab was there and just that there was the existence of test tubes in the place, because you can’t freaking do experiments without test tubes.
Listen, I forgive him because he gave me more than he took away from me. What kind of man am I if I can’t at least acknowledge that and be grateful for that? He gave me more than he took from me, and I’m grateful for that. I’m also grateful for what I gave him, that I did give him something, and at that point in his life. A place to still have test tubes and chemistry experiments. A laboratory where he could still create a great fighter. And I helped give them that. I was part of that lab and making sure that lab was there and just that there was the existence of test tubes in the place, because you can’t freaking do experiments without test tubes.
Lex Fridman
Now you’re the scientist with the test tubes.
Now you’re the scientist with the test tubes.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, I guess so. And I just hope that… what I said earlier is really my thread through this whole thing. When you say, “Could you forgive Cus?” I’m still trying to forgive myself. And if I can have hope that I can forgive myself, I think that hope has to start with the power to forgive someone else. How can I ever forgive myself for all my failings and figure it out if I can’t start and practice it by forgiving someone else for some shortcomings? And for me, that’s the only sense of sometimes a very hard thing to make sense of. That’s my North Star, that’s my compass. Cus used to make me laugh. Me and him did everything together. And we’d get lost in the city, we get lost in the Bronx, and he’d get all frustrated. And he said, “Atlas, you’re a great trainer but you turn you around, you spin you around and you’re lost.” And I said, “Me or we?” Because I was the only one who would argue with him, and it was really funny sometimes. And I said, “We or me? We or?” He goes, “[inaudible 01:30:46].” “Cus, you’re lost. I’m lost. What are you talking about?”
Yeah, I guess so. And I just hope that… what I said earlier is really my thread through this whole thing. When you say, “Could you forgive Cus?” I’m still trying to forgive myself. And if I can have hope that I can forgive myself, I think that hope has to start with the power to forgive someone else. How can I ever forgive myself for all my failings and figure it out if I can’t start and practice it by forgiving someone else for some shortcomings? And for me, that’s the only sense of sometimes a very hard thing to make sense of. That’s my North Star, that’s my compass. Cus used to make me laugh. Me and him did everything together. And we’d get lost in the city, we get lost in the Bronx, and he’d get all frustrated. And he said, “Atlas, you’re a great trainer but you turn you around, you spin you around and you’re lost.” And I said, “Me or we?” Because I was the only one who would argue with him, and it was really funny sometimes. And I said, “We or me? We or?” He goes, “[inaudible 01:30:46].” “Cus, you’re lost. I’m lost. What are you talking about?”
And then all of a sudden Cus couldn’t give in. He just couldn’t admit. He couldn’t give in. You know what he said to me? All of a sudden he goes, “When I was in the Army, if I had a compass I could get out of the woods.” I said, “We’re not in the woods, we’re not in the Army. We don’t have a compass. Cus! Cus!” “Just don’t argue with me!”
One time we’re driving. I want to get back to Catskill. We just finished at the Bronx. It’s been a long day visiting the Murderers Inc. houses and everything else that he took me through for the 1,800th time. And he would fall asleep. He was getting older and he would just fall asleep in the car. So what do you think? I went a little faster, because before he went to sleep he said, “Don’t speed.” I don’t consider myself… I try to be an honest guy and I try to be a freaking…
Lex Fridman
Was it five or six guys?
Was it five or six guys?
Teddy Atlas
What did I figure earlier? Try to do less submitting, really, in all phases. Try to submit a little less. Try to lie a little less today. A little less. Try to get stronger, try to get a little better. So here we are and we’re driving. And all of a sudden he’s asleep. What did I do? 80? 75? Probably. Probably did. Whatever. And all of a sudden he wakes up. “You were speeding.” I lied. “No, I wasn’t.” ” Don’t lie.” “I’m not lying.” “You lied again. You were speeding.” Now, come on. This guy, he’s unbelievable. So I got to freaking… he’s David Copperfield, I want to know the trick. I want to know how he made this thing disappear.
What did I figure earlier? Try to do less submitting, really, in all phases. Try to submit a little less. Try to lie a little less today. A little less. Try to get stronger, try to get a little better. So here we are and we’re driving. And all of a sudden he’s asleep. What did I do? 80? 75? Probably. Probably did. Whatever. And all of a sudden he wakes up. “You were speeding.” I lied. “No, I wasn’t.” ” Don’t lie.” “I’m not lying.” “You lied again. You were speeding.” Now, come on. This guy, he’s unbelievable. So I got to freaking… he’s David Copperfield, I want to know the trick. I want to know how he made this thing disappear.
So I said, “What are you talking? How do you know?” He goes, “Because I timed you. I looked at the post number.” And I’m like, “What?” “I looked at the post number on the side of the road where we were,” whatever mile. And I never knew they even existed. I look and I said, “Yeah, there’s little numbers.”
Lex Fridman
He started timing and then he fell asleep.
He started timing and then he fell asleep.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, he timed it. And he looked. He goes, “We couldn’t have got from here to there in that amount of time unless you were going 75 miles an hour.” And I’m like, “All right, I’m impressed. Don’t try to get the mileage, the mile per hour part right. It’s enough that you got me. That’s enough. Yeah.” I said, “And I’m not going to do that no more.” And he helped me in crazy ways where there would be times where you wanted to be whatever, convenient, weak, submit. And then all of a sudden, in my mind, Cus was there with the stopwatch. And I’d be like, “No,” where I was about to say yes to whatever that particular situation was.
Yeah, he timed it. And he looked. He goes, “We couldn’t have got from here to there in that amount of time unless you were going 75 miles an hour.” And I’m like, “All right, I’m impressed. Don’t try to get the mileage, the mile per hour part right. It’s enough that you got me. That’s enough. Yeah.” I said, “And I’m not going to do that no more.” And he helped me in crazy ways where there would be times where you wanted to be whatever, convenient, weak, submit. And then all of a sudden, in my mind, Cus was there with the stopwatch. And I’d be like, “No,” where I was about to say yes to whatever that particular situation was.
Lex Fridman
Somebody hit their phone. Hello? Hello? Yes. Doing great. Thank you.
Somebody hit their phone. Hello? Hello? Yes. Doing great. Thank you.
Lex Fridman
Just for the record, never had a phone call like this. It’s hotel security. The question he asked me is, “Are you okay, sir?” Are you okay? Are we okay?
Just for the record, never had a phone call like this. It’s hotel security. The question he asked me is, “Are you okay, sir?” Are you okay? Are we okay?
Teddy Atlas
I think so. I think so. So far.
I think so. I think so. So far.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
I can only go so far. It’s kind of like that old joke where the guy jumps off the Empire State Building. He’s falling down and he’s going 80th floor, 70th floor, 60th floor, 50th. And he gets past the 50th floor and they’re looking at him out the window and he goes, “How am I doing?” They’re like, “So far so good.” I don’t know where it’s going to end.
I can only go so far. It’s kind of like that old joke where the guy jumps off the Empire State Building. He’s falling down and he’s going 80th floor, 70th floor, 60th floor, 50th. And he gets past the 50th floor and they’re looking at him out the window and he goes, “How am I doing?” They’re like, “So far so good.” I don’t know where it’s going to end.
Lex Fridman
Mike Tyson is considered by many to be one of the great boxers, one of the greatest boxers of all time, heavyweight boxers. What do you think, on the positive side, made him great?
Mike Tyson is considered by many to be one of the great boxers, one of the greatest boxers of all time, heavyweight boxers. What do you think, on the positive side, made him great?
Teddy Atlas
I don’t know if he was ever great. I know he was sensational. I know he was the greatest mix of maybe speed and power ever. I know he was one of the greatest punchers from either side of the plate, left or right. There’s been great punchers with just the right hand, like Earnie Shavers and Deontay Wilder and Max Baer. I don’t know if there’s ever been anyone who could punch as good as he did on either side with either hand, other than Joe Louis and a few others. I don’t know if there’s ever been such a combination of speed and power to that pure level that he had, and it was a pure level.
I don’t know if he was ever great. I know he was sensational. I know he was the greatest mix of maybe speed and power ever. I know he was one of the greatest punchers from either side of the plate, left or right. There’s been great punchers with just the right hand, like Earnie Shavers and Deontay Wilder and Max Baer. I don’t know if there’s ever been anyone who could punch as good as he did on either side with either hand, other than Joe Louis and a few others. I don’t know if there’s ever been such a combination of speed and power to that pure level that he had, and it was a pure level.
I don’t know if there was ever as good a fighter as Tyson was, where maybe one night he was great where he wasn’t tested but he might’ve been ready to be tested. That one night against Michael Spinks when he took him apart in 90 seconds, I think I saw a great fighter that night. I don’t think you can be great unless you have all the requirements of being great.
Lex Fridman
What does it take to be a great fighter? Truly great.
What does it take to be a great fighter? Truly great.
Teddy Atlas
To not rely on someone else’s weakness to be strong. To be strong on your own. Too often he relied on other people’s weakness, whether it’s by being intimidated or whether it was because his talent was so much greater than theirs that it was like putting a monster truck in there with a Volkswagen, and the Volkswagen was going to get crushed. No matter how much horsepower the Volkswagen might’ve had under the hood and you put under the hood, it was going to get crushed. The monster truck was not going to allow it to be a contest.
To not rely on someone else’s weakness to be strong. To be strong on your own. Too often he relied on other people’s weakness, whether it’s by being intimidated or whether it was because his talent was so much greater than theirs that it was like putting a monster truck in there with a Volkswagen, and the Volkswagen was going to get crushed. No matter how much horsepower the Volkswagen might’ve had under the hood and you put under the hood, it was going to get crushed. The monster truck was not going to allow it to be a contest.
And to be able to find a way when your talent wasn’t enough. He didn’t find a way when his talent wasn’t enough. And I’m not making statements if I’m not ready to put some evidence. Like if we were in a courtroom, exhibit A: when he fought Buster Douglas, Buster Douglas matched his will and didn’t get intimidated. Stood up to him. He didn’t do what most people did. He didn’t submit even a little bit. Not that night. He had in the past, but that night he didn’t.
Why? Because Buster had a secret weapon that night, his mother. Buster’s mother had died a few months previous. He loved his mother very much. Buster had always had talent. Big heavyweight, talented, could punch, technically solid. He was all those things, always was, but he quit in fights. He did less than he should’ve done. He never lived up to his ability. He gave in. He submitted. He wasn’t strong enough. He never had a reason to be strong enough. When his mother died, he had a reason. Nothing could hurt him as much as his mother dying hurt him, Mike Tyson included.
That night Mike Tyson could not hurt him as much as his mother had hurt him by dying. That night he had a reason to be strong, for his mother, and he was strong. He was everything he was supposed to be and more. And he stood up to Mike, and Mike, for the first time maybe ever, was in a fight where he had to overcome something, where he had to be more than talented, more than a puncher, more than a guy with scintillating speed. And he wasn’t. And then that night got followed by another night with Holyfield. Holyfield…
Teddy Atlas
… night got followed by another night with Holyfield. Holyfield wasn’t as talented as him, as big, as a much puncher, but Holyfield had the character. He was strong in ways that Tyson wasn’t strong. He was strong in a way where he could find a way. He was willing to find a way. He’s willing to go to the cliff, to truly die before he submitted. A lot of stuff is just words, “They’re going to have to carry me out on the shield,” yeah, sure. Okay. Yeah, until it comes time to be carried out on the shield. Sometimes there’s people that actually mean it.
… night got followed by another night with Holyfield. Holyfield wasn’t as talented as him, as big, as a much puncher, but Holyfield had the character. He was strong in ways that Tyson wasn’t strong. He was strong in a way where he could find a way. He was willing to find a way. He’s willing to go to the cliff, to truly die before he submitted. A lot of stuff is just words, “They’re going to have to carry me out on the shield,” yeah, sure. Okay. Yeah, until it comes time to be carried out on the shield. Sometimes there’s people that actually mean it.
Lex Fridman
You think Mike didn’t have that?
You think Mike didn’t have that?
Teddy Atlas
Well, all right. Let’s just say arbitrarily, I don’t have his record in front of me. Let’s say he was 55 and five, I know he had about five losses. All right, let’s say he was 55 and five, a lot of knockouts. I have a saying, a fight’s not a fight until there’s something to overcome, until then it’s just an athletic exhibition. Contest. Yeah. Who’s a better athlete? Who’s got more quick twitch fibers? Who’s more developed? Who’s a better this? Who’s more developed in those physical areas? But a fight is not a fight until there’s something to overcome. Okay. So, if you go by my definition, not Webster’s, my definition, which I think means something, Mike Tyson was only in five fights in his life.
Well, all right. Let’s just say arbitrarily, I don’t have his record in front of me. Let’s say he was 55 and five, I know he had about five losses. All right, let’s say he was 55 and five, a lot of knockouts. I have a saying, a fight’s not a fight until there’s something to overcome, until then it’s just an athletic exhibition. Contest. Yeah. Who’s a better athlete? Who’s got more quick twitch fibers? Who’s more developed? Who’s a better this? Who’s more developed in those physical areas? But a fight is not a fight until there’s something to overcome. Okay. So, if you go by my definition, not Webster’s, my definition, which I think means something, Mike Tyson was only in five fights in his life.
The five fights where there was something to overcome and he didn’t overcome it. Now, I know people hate me for this, including Tyson. I understand, hate me. Oh, you’re a hater, because you weren’t with him, you didn’t make the money because this, because of that, because you got betrayed. I think I’m better than that. I hope I’m better than that. I believe I’m better than that. I’m not a hater. I’ve broadcast fights for 25 years on ESPN, where there was some people in the corner I did not like, and if they did a good job, this guy’s doing a great job. And then, there were guys that I liked and I had friendship, he messed up, and we weren’t friends no more. Friendship got to be tested. Remember that? So, we weren’t friends no more, but why did I do that? Because it was my job. It was more important for me… When it’s all over with, the only thing you’re left with is… We’re going to be dust, all of us, right?
The only thing we’re left with is what carries on, our reputation, legacy, whatever that is. But our reputation, that’s all we’re left with. And that’s all our kids are left with. I want it to be as good as it can be. I’ve always had ability, I’ve done a lot of things wrong, and I’ve had a lot of lackings, but the one strength I’ve had, if I had a strength, is to understand somehow, through osmosis, I guess, to learn the lesson that was important is not what’s in front of you for those five seconds, for that moment in life, it’s what’s left behind you when those five seconds are gone. Whatever it is that you’re dealing with, whatever that moment is, whatever… That moment, what you do in that moment, the action of that moment is going to stay with you and be you. It’s going to become you.
What you face for that moment, it’s gone. It’s gone in the air, in an instant. It’s gone, it’s done. Whether you stand up there and you get shot in the head, and the guy freaking blows your brains out, or you stand up or you’re fighting a guy who’s a scary guy to fight, but you fight him and you beat him or he beats you up. But how you represented yourself in that moment is all that matters. That’s going to live. What happened don’t matter. It don’t matter that you got shot in the head. I know that sounds absurd, but if you believe that it was important to stand up and take the chance to get shot in the freaking head, rather than to live like an empty vessel, you know what? That’s all that freaking matters. And somehow that got freaking wrapped into this freaking head of mine, that’s what matters. That’s all that matters.
You know how many times I went, and there were things, whether it was with this one, with Tyson, with that… I didn’t want to be there, I was scared to death, but I was more scared-
Lex Fridman
Living with regret.
Living with regret.
Teddy Atlas
… how I would’ve felt. I don’t want to be in solitary confinement the rest of my life, with that freaking guy in the cell next to me called regret. I don’t freaking want to be next to that guy. If I want to freaking go down that road, I’ll watch Papillon. And I’ll get my fill from that. But I don’t want to freaking live it. I’m afraid of what my children would think of me if I fail in those areas. Why? Because that’s forever. When I’m closing my eyes for the last time, I don’t want to have that fear. I don’t want to have that fear. Whether I’m going down there or whether I’m going up there. I laugh because I was around guys years ago that used to, when we’d talk about that in jest, and I would get a kick out of this one guy who’d been around the block a few times, when he’d say, “Teddy, I ain’t worried about that, I got friends in both places.”
… how I would’ve felt. I don’t want to be in solitary confinement the rest of my life, with that freaking guy in the cell next to me called regret. I don’t freaking want to be next to that guy. If I want to freaking go down that road, I’ll watch Papillon. And I’ll get my fill from that. But I don’t want to freaking live it. I’m afraid of what my children would think of me if I fail in those areas. Why? Because that’s forever. When I’m closing my eyes for the last time, I don’t want to have that fear. I don’t want to have that fear. Whether I’m going down there or whether I’m going up there. I laugh because I was around guys years ago that used to, when we’d talk about that in jest, and I would get a kick out of this one guy who’d been around the block a few times, when he’d say, “Teddy, I ain’t worried about that, I got friends in both places.”
Lex Fridman
That’s a good line.
That’s a good line.
Teddy Atlas
And I thought it was good. Listen, Mike Tyson, you want me to say he was a great fighter, then you want me to betray what I really… You know what I mean? You want me to do that? I ain’t doing it for… Listen, I could do it to be a bigger Teddy Atlas, and I know it would work for me. I know it’d do great promotional work for me. I know it would make me more popular in certain areas. I know it, I’m not that dumb. Not that dumb. But I also know what else it would do to me, and I don’t want it to do that to me. I think he was a great talent, I think maybe the night with Michael Spinks, maybe the night with Mike, maybe he could have been that fighter. But he didn’t never really get tested, but he might’ve been ready no matter what, I have to be tested that night.
And I thought it was good. Listen, Mike Tyson, you want me to say he was a great fighter, then you want me to betray what I really… You know what I mean? You want me to do that? I ain’t doing it for… Listen, I could do it to be a bigger Teddy Atlas, and I know it would work for me. I know it’d do great promotional work for me. I know it would make me more popular in certain areas. I know it, I’m not that dumb. Not that dumb. But I also know what else it would do to me, and I don’t want it to do that to me. I think he was a great talent, I think maybe the night with Michael Spinks, maybe the night with Mike, maybe he could have been that fighter. But he didn’t never really get tested, but he might’ve been ready no matter what, I have to be tested that night.
That’s how good he was. That’s how, even though it was a guy who used to be a light heavyweight, I get it. But it was still a guy who beat Larry Holmes, who still had something left, Michael Spinks. And a great puncher. And an Olympic gold medalist. And a special fighter, one of the great light heavyweights of all time. You know what Mike Tyson was? He was a meteor. He was a meteor that struck across, and not too many meteors… And we still talk about him. And unlike Haley’s comet, he came back, and he’s walking around. And he has become greater after his career, more loved, more beloved, more awed, and he’s been forgiven. He found the fountain of forgiveness. I don’t know… I wish I could find that.
Where he has been forgotten for all his shortcomings, all the things that he may have done, may not have done, we don’t know, only him and God know. But he’s been forgiven of all that, and he’s been not only forgiven, he’s rised above it and above that, and been brought above that. He’s been brought to the pyramids of the greatest athletes in the world. In every way. In every way. As a person, as a fighter, as a historian, as a figure, as a celebrity-
Lex Fridman
Even a philosopher.
Even a philosopher.
Teddy Atlas
Everything. So, I will take it back. All right, all you guys out there, you forgive me, he’s the greatest of all time, if you encapsulate all that. If you encapsulate everything I just tried to describe and explain, if you put that all… He’s the greatest of all time, yeah, he is. But he still might be 0-5. In a record of 55 fights he might, in Teddy Atlas’s book, again, I got friends in both places, so it’s was okay. Wherever I go I’ll have company, somebody there will like me, despite me saying this. He might be 0-5 because of five fights where there was something to overcome, which really defines a fight. He didn’t find a way.
Everything. So, I will take it back. All right, all you guys out there, you forgive me, he’s the greatest of all time, if you encapsulate all that. If you encapsulate everything I just tried to describe and explain, if you put that all… He’s the greatest of all time, yeah, he is. But he still might be 0-5. In a record of 55 fights he might, in Teddy Atlas’s book, again, I got friends in both places, so it’s was okay. Wherever I go I’ll have company, somebody there will like me, despite me saying this. He might be 0-5 because of five fights where there was something to overcome, which really defines a fight. He didn’t find a way.
Lex Fridman
Let me ask Teddy Atlas to introspect on the human nature here, as part of the complexities of your feelings on this whole thing is that you know to some degree that if you were coaching Mike Tyson, he could be truly great throughout-
Let me ask Teddy Atlas to introspect on the human nature here, as part of the complexities of your feelings on this whole thing is that you know to some degree that if you were coaching Mike Tyson, he could be truly great throughout-
Teddy Atlas
I know… I’m going to cut you right off, because you asked a million-dollar question, I wish you didn’t, but you did. You did. Because that’s why-
I know… I’m going to cut you right off, because you asked a million-dollar question, I wish you didn’t, but you did. You did. Because that’s why-
Lex Fridman
When do I get paid?
When do I get paid?
Teddy Atlas
That’s why you get paid. I get it, you took the words out of my mouth. That’s why you are where you are. And that’s why I’m here.
That’s why you get paid. I get it, you took the words out of my mouth. That’s why you are where you are. And that’s why I’m here.
Lex Fridman
The humility.
The humility.
Teddy Atlas
I’m going to, again, full disclosure, it’s important, right? I’m going to cheat, I’m going to take some of Cus’ wisdom. All right. A little bit of mine. Cus told somebody that if Teddy Atlas got his way, he might’ve been a better person, but we would’ve risked him not being a great fighter. Now, I believe, and I thought Cus did, and I think he did up to that point in his life, that part of your strength of character made you a great fighter, and truly a great fighter. And part of that battle to be a better person, that fight if you will, to be a better person, to overcome the [inaudible 01:50:22] to be a better person, part of that fire you have to go through to be a better person, I really truly bought into it, and I’m in for life.
I’m going to, again, full disclosure, it’s important, right? I’m going to cheat, I’m going to take some of Cus’ wisdom. All right. A little bit of mine. Cus told somebody that if Teddy Atlas got his way, he might’ve been a better person, but we would’ve risked him not being a great fighter. Now, I believe, and I thought Cus did, and I think he did up to that point in his life, that part of your strength of character made you a great fighter, and truly a great fighter. And part of that battle to be a better person, that fight if you will, to be a better person, to overcome the [inaudible 01:50:22] to be a better person, part of that fire you have to go through to be a better person, I really truly bought into it, and I’m in for life.
That is really the only way to be a great fighter. And I don’t think that’s what Cus meant, I think he meant that… Cus knew more than I did of what was about to come and what would come and what the world was. How people would try to steal him, how people would take him, how people would steal his guy. The last thing he had, really, the thing that he lived for. Because he lived to have another heavyweight champ, the greatest fighter ever, in Cus’ mind. He could be. And I believe that Cus knew that he could put forward a guy that had the ability to be the greatest fighter ever, without fully completing the mission of what it takes to really be great, but that he wouldn’t be around to have to witness it.
And that he wouldn’t… Oh man, this is awful. He’s willing to concede that he might be dead in order to have eternal life, in order to have greatness. And which, Cus does have greatness, and part of that greatness is attached to Tyson. And he deserves it. He deserves it, Cus was a great man. And I wouldn’t be here, partly, without him.
Lex Fridman
But that was part of the calculation.
But that was part of the calculation.
Teddy Atlas
I know that’s deep, and I know that’s… Oh God, I hate myself right now. But Cus, he knew he was getting out free. He knew he was going to not have to be there. He was getting off easy. Oh, Teddy, how do you say someone’s going to be dead, they’re getting off easy? I’ll say it again in case you didn’t hear me, all right? He was going to get off easy, and not have to face where he came up short, because he did his job. Because he put forward the greatest fighter of all time, and you guys screwed it up.
I know that’s deep, and I know that’s… Oh God, I hate myself right now. But Cus, he knew he was getting out free. He knew he was going to not have to be there. He was getting off easy. Oh, Teddy, how do you say someone’s going to be dead, they’re getting off easy? I’ll say it again in case you didn’t hear me, all right? He was going to get off easy, and not have to face where he came up short, because he did his job. Because he put forward the greatest fighter of all time, and you guys screwed it up.
And he knew that that might happen, but you guys screwed it up. And whatever, that’s your fault. That’s on… I’ll tell you, Tyson will be mad at this, but that’s on Tyson. How can you say that Teddy? He loved me. I’m not saying he didn’t love you, but he loved some other stuff too. And I don’t know if Tyson could ever come to grip’s light with that, and it’s not his job to. But it’s my job not to hide from it. I know Cus in dimensions that other people just only think they know.
Lex Fridman
Did Cus know? Did Cus know this about himself? Did he reflect? Did he introspect?
Did Cus know? Did Cus know this about himself? Did he reflect? Did he introspect?
Teddy Atlas
Well, he sent a message to me. Cus sent a guide to me… My wife was pregnant, we were living in an apartment in Catskill on [inaudible 01:53:38] road. We went through all this, and I was getting ready to move to Staten Island, and we still were there for a little while before we did, after all this went down. He sent a guy to me, to the house, secret, whatever you want to call it… My wife, me. So, I listened to him. Cus said, if you leave… I’m a messenger, whatever. If you leave… This was in the aftermath of the gun, the whole thing. You got to remember, Tyson was a ward of the state. He was put in Cus’ custody. Cus was looking to adopt him, for obvious reasons, so he had control. And he loved him.
Well, he sent a message to me. Cus sent a guide to me… My wife was pregnant, we were living in an apartment in Catskill on [inaudible 01:53:38] road. We went through all this, and I was getting ready to move to Staten Island, and we still were there for a little while before we did, after all this went down. He sent a guy to me, to the house, secret, whatever you want to call it… My wife, me. So, I listened to him. Cus said, if you leave… I’m a messenger, whatever. If you leave… This was in the aftermath of the gun, the whole thing. You got to remember, Tyson was a ward of the state. He was put in Cus’ custody. Cus was looking to adopt him, for obvious reasons, so he had control. And he loved him.
How dare I say anything less? I won’t. But it made sense too. But he was a ward of the state still. Do you know what that means? There’s rules. It means the state’s still overlooking it. If he ain’t living the right life… You got to remember, he came out of a jail. So, reform school. But if he ain’t living the life, he could be taken away from Cus. What’s not living the right life? Well, he wasn’t in school no more, they didn’t know about it. He had some things that were going on, we won’t get into that right now, in school and different things, whatever. And he had his trainer put a gun to his head. That ain’t so good. If a report came back to them that that happened, he would’ve been taken away from Cus. That couldn’t happen. Nobody knows this. I talk about it a little bit, but never, probably… Because why would I?
I don’t know. Why am I doing it now? I don’t know, because… I don’t know. Because I am-
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 01:55:33].
[inaudible 01:55:33].
Teddy Atlas
… because it’s now. Because it’s now, maybe. Maybe because it’s now, I don’t know. So, he sent this man, that obviously we both knew, and he said, here’s the deal, Teddy. No talk about this, wants it to disappear, basically, you leave and he will give you 5%… His word. Can you imagine? He will give you 5% of Tyson’s earnings for the rest of his career. But I don’t regret it one bit because it wouldn’t have happened anyway. See, that’s where I could be honest with my… People say, oh, standup guy, because I told him to shove it where the… In that place. And tell Cus to shove it in that freaking place. I was mad. Teddy, don’t get angry… Don’t get angry? Are you out of your… Are you serious? Get out of here. Tell them to go shove it over… And my wife was like, huh? And then, people are like, [inaudible 01:56:37], why didn’t you take the deal? It wasn’t a deal, it was an escape clause for Cus. It was an insurance policy, that this kid wouldn’t be taken away from him.
… because it’s now. Because it’s now, maybe. Maybe because it’s now, I don’t know. So, he sent this man, that obviously we both knew, and he said, here’s the deal, Teddy. No talk about this, wants it to disappear, basically, you leave and he will give you 5%… His word. Can you imagine? He will give you 5% of Tyson’s earnings for the rest of his career. But I don’t regret it one bit because it wouldn’t have happened anyway. See, that’s where I could be honest with my… People say, oh, standup guy, because I told him to shove it where the… In that place. And tell Cus to shove it in that freaking place. I was mad. Teddy, don’t get angry… Don’t get angry? Are you out of your… Are you serious? Get out of here. Tell them to go shove it over… And my wife was like, huh? And then, people are like, [inaudible 01:56:37], why didn’t you take the deal? It wasn’t a deal, it was an escape clause for Cus. It was an insurance policy, that this kid wouldn’t be taken away from him.
And thank God he wasn’t. I wasn’t going to go and say nothing, they didn’t have to worry about it. Cus forgot who I was? Cus forgot why he went to court for me? Because of those characteristics that he said he loved, and he noticed, and that he admired. I didn’t lose those characters, he forgot that that was me, he forgot who he was talking to. He didn’t have to do that. How about, that’s why I told him to shove it up his… Not because of the other insult. And then, when people said to me, oh, you were stand up… Because it was around a little bit. It was around in the circles. And then, when people… Oh, stand up Teddy, he didn’t care about the money. I said, stand up Teddy? What are you talking about?
How about just realistic, Teddy? How about I live in a real world, that I was never going to get that money? So, I’m standing up to something that I knew never existed. So, I ain’t stand up, not in that way. I am in other ways maybe, but don’t put a medal on my chest for that, because that never existed. It was never meant to exist. But he didn’t even understand. That was the one thing that really disappointed me in Cus. I was like Cus, you really allowed this to get to you. Where you’ve allowed it to really fog up your thinking, to the point where you’re smarter than that, you’re better than that. That you would actually think you got to freaking offer me freaking pieces of silver. You really think that? That’s what you… Freak you. All that you told me, that you love me, and that I was the young master, and all this… And you think you were going to buy me? And that was going to keep me quiet? How about I would keep quiet because I would always keep quiet?
Lex Fridman
So, he thought maybe you might betray him?
So, he thought maybe you might betray him?
Teddy Atlas
Isn’t that interesting? Yeah. And why did he think that? No, no really?
Isn’t that interesting? Yeah. And why did he think that? No, no really?
Lex Fridman
Fear.
Fear.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah. But yeah, fear is at the essence of everything, it’s connected with everything. Fear of losing what he was going to lose. But it was more than fear, it was him not believing in the things that he told me he believed in. He didn’t even know that. He believed in me because I was a standup guy. Because I didn’t sell myself. Because I didn’t freaking turn evidence. I didn’t make a deal. I didn’t do… And that’s why he went to court, and that’s why he stood up for me. And I appreciate it. And that was what he lived by. And those were the blocks of being a man. So much for those blocks.
Yeah. But yeah, fear is at the essence of everything, it’s connected with everything. Fear of losing what he was going to lose. But it was more than fear, it was him not believing in the things that he told me he believed in. He didn’t even know that. He believed in me because I was a standup guy. Because I didn’t sell myself. Because I didn’t freaking turn evidence. I didn’t make a deal. I didn’t do… And that’s why he went to court, and that’s why he stood up for me. And I appreciate it. And that was what he lived by. And those were the blocks of being a man. So much for those blocks.
Lex Fridman
Well, it’s like you said, loyalty requires… He would’ve had to take a risk on losing immortality that he would achieve by creating a great heavyweight champion-
Well, it’s like you said, loyalty requires… He would’ve had to take a risk on losing immortality that he would achieve by creating a great heavyweight champion-
Teddy Atlas
And that’s the only way you… 100%. But the only way you ever find out if somebody is really that-
And that’s the only way you… 100%. But the only way you ever find out if somebody is really that-
Lex Fridman
It’s hard. It’s hard.
It’s hard. It’s hard.
Teddy Atlas
…it’s the test. And it was Cus.
…it’s the test. And it was Cus.
Lex Fridman
This is Shakespearean, this story.
This is Shakespearean, this story.
Teddy Atlas
Cus told me, Cus said, “And the test come in different forms.”
Cus told me, Cus said, “And the test come in different forms.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
I said, all right, Cus.
I said, all right, Cus.
Lex Fridman
This was his test.
This was his test.
Teddy Atlas
And some people pass this test because they’re able to pass that test, because it’s not really a test. Not for them. Because it doesn’t speak to their weakness. But it’s the test that speaks to the weakness, that’s the one. So, this one, I get it, I get what it spoke to, Cus. And you know what? At the end of the day, I forgive you, and I feel bad for you. I feel bad that you were put in that position after you lived your life that way, and that you taught that and you preached that from the mountaintops, that you had to be… That you had to be… I’m not going to use the word. But that you had to fail yourself, and that you had to somehow know that before you died.
And some people pass this test because they’re able to pass that test, because it’s not really a test. Not for them. Because it doesn’t speak to their weakness. But it’s the test that speaks to the weakness, that’s the one. So, this one, I get it, I get what it spoke to, Cus. And you know what? At the end of the day, I forgive you, and I feel bad for you. I feel bad that you were put in that position after you lived your life that way, and that you taught that and you preached that from the mountaintops, that you had to be… That you had to be… I’m not going to use the word. But that you had to fail yourself, and that you had to somehow know that before you died.
I just pray that you didn’t know that. And you still don’t know that. Because you were great, you were great. And you’ve given me something to aspire towards. To try to be less weak. Try to be better. And try to be as good as you wanted to be. I wish I can someday. More importantly, I wish I could make my father just feel good up there.
Forgiveness
Lex Fridman
You’re a grandfather now.
You’re a grandfather now.
Teddy Atlas
Yeah, four grandchildren.
Yeah, four grandchildren.
Lex Fridman
If you can give them advice on how to live a life they can be proud of…
If you can give them advice on how to live a life they can be proud of…
Teddy Atlas
Just do everything you can, to the best of your ability, every day, to like yourself. To give yourself a reason, to actually say, I’d like to be friends with that guy.
Just do everything you can, to the best of your ability, every day, to like yourself. To give yourself a reason, to actually say, I’d like to be friends with that guy.
Lex Fridman
Is loyalty one of the reasons? One of the things to aspire to?
Is loyalty one of the reasons? One of the things to aspire to?
Teddy Atlas
Loyalty is your chance to have a fulfilled life. Loyalty is your chance to have strength, to have all the things you need to have a good life. To be a good parent, be a good husband, be a good grandfather, hopefully be a good role model. Loyalty is… If you could find something to drink, to take into your body, to make you prepared for life, to be all the things that you want to be, to be strong enough to be those things, loyalty would be the thing you would drink. And when I say loyal, I mean unequivocally. I mean unconditionally. Not conveniently, obviously you know that. If you could be loyal, you could be a good person. You could be a person that you would actually like to be around. Because you could be a person you could rely on. And I think that’s one of the greatest assets that a human being can have.
Loyalty is your chance to have a fulfilled life. Loyalty is your chance to have strength, to have all the things you need to have a good life. To be a good parent, be a good husband, be a good grandfather, hopefully be a good role model. Loyalty is… If you could find something to drink, to take into your body, to make you prepared for life, to be all the things that you want to be, to be strong enough to be those things, loyalty would be the thing you would drink. And when I say loyal, I mean unequivocally. I mean unconditionally. Not conveniently, obviously you know that. If you could be loyal, you could be a good person. You could be a person that you would actually like to be around. Because you could be a person you could rely on. And I think that’s one of the greatest assets that a human being can have.
Lex Fridman
And what do you do when you’re betrayed? How do you overcome that?
And what do you do when you’re betrayed? How do you overcome that?
Teddy Atlas
You think of what you learned from it. Use it as a roadmap to remember, and to think back of how you got there. And how you got to the place where you got betrayed, and how that person got to that place. Try to remember that in your own journey.
You think of what you learned from it. Use it as a roadmap to remember, and to think back of how you got there. And how you got to the place where you got betrayed, and how that person got to that place. Try to remember that in your own journey.
Lex Fridman
Has it, for you, made you cynical? How do you take the leap of trust towards people again and again after that?
Has it, for you, made you cynical? How do you take the leap of trust towards people again and again after that?
Teddy Atlas
Just by remembering that I’m still trying to forgive myself for the things that I came up short with. And if I haven’t figured that out yet, it’s probably okay to say they didn’t figure it out yet, they didn’t figure it out. And if I couldn’t figure it out and I’m still trying to figure it out, maybe I could get over that initial stabbing of, what it feels like. It does feel like a stabbing. That you feel when you’re betrayed initially, and that you could only think of anger, revenge, hatred. I know those things. I’m not proud of that, but I felt all those things. And I still feel them sometimes. And then I go back and say, hey, you’re still working at forgiving yourself for some things, try to remember that kid. Memory’s an important thing. Forgetfulness is pretty important too. And I’m trying to remember why we forget. Why do we forget? Because it wasn’t something you felt proud of.
Just by remembering that I’m still trying to forgive myself for the things that I came up short with. And if I haven’t figured that out yet, it’s probably okay to say they didn’t figure it out yet, they didn’t figure it out. And if I couldn’t figure it out and I’m still trying to figure it out, maybe I could get over that initial stabbing of, what it feels like. It does feel like a stabbing. That you feel when you’re betrayed initially, and that you could only think of anger, revenge, hatred. I know those things. I’m not proud of that, but I felt all those things. And I still feel them sometimes. And then I go back and say, hey, you’re still working at forgiving yourself for some things, try to remember that kid. Memory’s an important thing. Forgetfulness is pretty important too. And I’m trying to remember why we forget. Why do we forget? Because it wasn’t something you felt proud of.
Lex Fridman
Do you think about your death? Are you afraid of it?
Do you think about your death? Are you afraid of it?
Teddy Atlas
It’s funny you asked that. I never used to think about it. I know people in both places.
It’s funny you asked that. I never used to think about it. I know people in both places.
Lex Fridman
I know, you’ve got it covered. You’re going to be all right.
I know, you’ve got it covered. You’re going to be all right.
Teddy Atlas
Don’t forget that.
Don’t forget that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Teddy Atlas
I know people in both places.
I know people in both places.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Both neighborhoods.
Yeah. Both neighborhoods.
Teddy Atlas
I’ve been given credit for being brave in certain spots in life, I hope I can be brave when it comes time to leave life. I hope I can be. And that’s just, that’s real and honest as you can be about it. I hope I can be. So far, so good. When I’ve had to be certain things that I was scared to freaking death, I found a way to beat them, for the most part. And so, I figured, when that day comes, I’ll figure that out too.
I’ve been given credit for being brave in certain spots in life, I hope I can be brave when it comes time to leave life. I hope I can be. And that’s just, that’s real and honest as you can be about it. I hope I can be. So far, so good. When I’ve had to be certain things that I was scared to freaking death, I found a way to beat them, for the most part. And so, I figured, when that day comes, I’ll figure that out too.
Lex Fridman
It’s going to be another test, maybe the last one. Teddy, it’s a huge honor to talk to you.
It’s going to be another test, maybe the last one. Teddy, it’s a huge honor to talk to you.
Teddy Atlas
It’s my pleasure.
It’s my pleasure.
Lex Fridman
Thank you for being the human you are, for being honest. Honest about the full range of human nature. And thank you for talking today.
Thank you for being the human you are, for being honest. Honest about the full range of human nature. And thank you for talking today.
Teddy Atlas
Thank you. Thank you for having me, and thanks for listening.
Thank you. Thank you for having me, and thanks for listening.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Teddy Atlas. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Muhammad Ali. “I hated every minute of training, but I said, don’t quit, suffer now and live the rest of your life as a champion.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Teddy Atlas. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Muhammad Ali. “I hated every minute of training, but I said, don’t quit, suffer now and live the rest of your life as a champion.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Jeff Bezos: Amazon and Blue Origin | Lex Fridman Podcast #405
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #405 with Jeff Bezos.
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the main video. Please note that the transcript is human generated, and may have errors.
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Table of Contents
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You spent a lot of your childhood with your grandfather on a ranch here in Texas.
But as I got a little older, I actually was helpful on the ranch and I loved it. My grandfather had a huge influence on me, a huge factor in my life. I did all the jobs you would do on a ranch. I’ve fixed windmills, and laid fences, and pipelines, and done all the things that any rancher would do, vaccinated the animals, everything. But after my grandmother died, I was about 12 and I kept coming to the ranch, so then it was just him and me, just the two of us. And he was completely addicted to the soap opera, Days of Our Lives. And we would go back to the ranch house every day around 1:00 PM or so to watch Days of Our Lives. Like sands through an hourglass, so are the Days of Our Lives.
I think with the geopolitical implications and how much resource was put into it. At the peak, that program was spending 2% or 3% of GDP on the Apollo program. So, much resource. I think it was pulled forward in time. We kind of did it ahead of when we, quote, unquote, should have done it. And so, in that way, it’s also a technical marvel. I mean it’s truly incredible. It’s the 20th century version of building the pyramids or something. It’s an achievement that because it was pulled forward in time and because it did something that had previously been thought impossible, it rightly deserves its place in the pantheon of great human achievements.
If you think about the good old days, they’re mostly an illusion. In almost every way, life is better for almost everyone today than it was say 50 years ago or 100 years ago. We live better lives by and large than our grandparents did, and their grandparents did, and so on. And you can see that in global illiteracy rates, global poverty rates, global infant mortality rates. Almost any metric you choose, we’re better off than we used to be. And we get antibiotics and all kinds of lifesaving medical care, and so on, and so on. And there’s one thing that is moving backwards, and it’s the natural world.
So, it is a fact that 500 years ago, pre-industrial age, the natural world was pristine. It was incredible. And we have traded some of that pristine beauty for all of these other gifts that we have as an advanced society. And we can have both, but to do that, we have to go to space. And the most fundamental measure is energy usage per capita. You do want to continue to use more and more energy, it is going to make your life better in so many ways, but that’s not compatible ultimately with living on a finite planet. And so, we have to go out into the solar system. And really, you could argue about when you have to do that, but you can’t credibly argue about whether you have to do that.
Blue Ring has a couple of interesting features. It provides a lot of services to these payloads. So, it could be one large payload or it can be a number of small payloads, and it provides thermal management, it provides electric power, it provides compute, provides communications. And so, when you design a payload for Blue Ring, you don’t have to figure out all of those things on your own. So, kind of radiation tolerant compute is a complicated thing to do. And so, we have an unusually large amount of radiation tolerant compute on board Blue Ring, and your payload can just use that when it needs to. So, it’s sort of all these services… It’s like a set of APIs. It’s a little bit like Amazon Web Services, but-
Theoretical physics is not one of those fields where only the top few percent actually move the state-of-the-art forward. It’s one of those things where your brain has to be wired in a certain way. And there was a guy named… One of these people who convinced me, he didn’t mean to convince me, but just by observing him, he convinced me that I should not try to be a theoretical physicist. His name was Yosanta. And Yosanta was from Sri Lanka, and he was one of the most brilliant people I’d ever met. My friend Joe and I were working on a very difficult partial differential equations problem set one night. And there was one problem that we worked on for three hours and we made no headway whatsoever. And we looked up at each other at the same time and we said, “Yosanta.”
So, we went to Yosanta’s dorm room and he was there. He was almost always there. And we said, “Yosanta, we’re having trouble solving this partial differential equation. Would you mind taking a look?” And he said, “Of course.” By the way, he was the most humble, most kind person. And so, he looked at our problem and he stared at it for just a few seconds, maybe 10 seconds, and he said, “cosine.” And I said, “What do you mean, Yosanta? What do you mean cosine?” He said, “That’s the answer.” And I said, “No, no, no, come on.” And he said, “Let me show you.” And he took out some paper and he wrote down three pages of equations, everything canceled out, and the answer was cosine.
And I said, “Yosanta, did you do that in your head?” And he said, “Oh, no. That would be impossible. A few years ago I solved a similar problem and I could map this problem onto that problem, and then it was immediately obvious that the answer was cosine.” You have an experience like that, you realize maybe being a theoretical physicist isn’t what the universe wants you to be. And so, I switched to computer science and that worked out really well for me. I enjoy it. I still enjoy it today.
I think a lot of people, and they feel like wandering is inefficient. And when I sit down at a meeting, I don’t know how long the meeting is going to take if we’re trying to solve a problem, because if I did, then I’d know there’s some kind of straight line that we’re drawing to the solution. The reality is we may have to wander for a long time. And I do like group invention. I think there’s really nothing more fun than sitting at a whiteboard with a group of smart people and spit balling and coming up with new ideas and objections to those ideas, and then solutions to the objections and going back and forth. So, sometimes you wake up with an idea in the middle of the night and sometimes you sit down with a group of people and go back and forth, and both things are really pleasurable.
So, the BE-3U has 160,000 pounds of thrust, so two of those, 320,000 pounds of thrust. And hydrogen is a very good propellant for upper stages because it has very high ISP. It’s not a great propellant in my view for booster stages, because the stages then get physically so large. Hydrogen has very high ISP, but liquid hydrogen is not dense at all. So, to store liquid hydrogen, if you need to store many thousands of pounds of liquid hydrogen, your liquid hydrogen tank gets very large. So, you get more benefit from the higher ISP, the specific impulse, you get more benefit from the higher specific impulse on the second stage. And that stage carries less propellant, so you don’t get such geometrically-gigantic tanks. The Delta IV is an example of a vehicle that is all hydrogen. The booster stage is also hydrogen, and I think that it’s a very effective vehicle, but it never was very cost-effective. So, it’s operationally very capable but not very cost-effective.
Aluminum-lithium and the ability to friction stir weld aluminum-lithium. Do you remember the friction stir welding that I showed you?
So those engines, if you’re going to launch the vehicle twice a month, you need four engines a month. So you need an engine every week. That engine needs to be being produced at rate and there’s all of the things that you need to do that, all the right machine tools, all the right fixtures, the right people, process, etcetera. So it’s one thing to build a first article, right? To launch New Glenn for the first time, you need to produce a first article, but that’s not the hard part. The hard part is everything that’s going on behind the scenes to build a factory that can produce New Glenns at rate.
And by the way, another giant piece of infrastructure that was around in the early, I’m taking you back to 1994, people were using dial-up modems and it was piggybacking on top of the long distance phone network. That’s how the internet … That’s how people were accessing servers and so on. And again, if that hadn’t existed, it would’ve been hundreds of billions of CapEx to put that out there. No startup company could have done that. And so the problem you see, if you look at the dynamism in the internet space over the last 20 years, it’s because you see two kids in a dorm room could start an internet company that could be successful and do amazing things because they didn’t have to build heavy infrastructure. It was already there. And that’s what I want to do. I take my Amazon winnings and use that to build heavy infrastructure so that the next generation, the generation that’s my children and their children, those generations can then use that heavy infrastructure, then there’ll be space entrepreneurs who start in their dorm room. That will be a marker of success when you can have a really valuable space company started in a dorm room, then we know that we’ve built enough infrastructure so that ingenuity and imagination can really be unleashed. I find that very exciting.
And so the only way to improve safety is to have an escape system. And historically, human-rated rockets have had escape systems. Only the space shuttle did not, but Apollo had one. All of the previous Gemini, etcetera, they all had escape systems. And we have on New Shepard an unusual escape … Most escape systems are towers. We have a pusher escape system. So the solid rocket motor is actually embedded in the base of the crew capsule and it pushes and it’s reusable in the sense that, if we don’t use it, so if we have a nominal mission, we land with it. The tower systems have to be ejected at a certain point in the mission and so they get wasted even in a nominal mission.
And so again, costs really matters on these things, so we figured out how to have the escape system be a reusable. In the event that it’s not used, it can reuse it and have it be a pusher system. It’s a very sophisticated thing. So I knew these things. You asked me about my decision to go and so I know the vehicle very well, I know the people who designed it, I have great trust in them and in the engineering that we did. And I thought to myself, “Look, if I am not ready to go, then I wouldn’t want anyone to go.” A tourism vehicle has to be designed, in my view, to be as safe as one can make it. You can’t make it perfectly safe. It’s impossible, but you have … People will do things. People take risk. They climb mountains, they skydive, they do deep underwater scuba diving and so on. People are okay taking risk. You can’t eliminate the risk, but it is something, because it’s a tourism vehicle, you have to do your utmost to eliminate those risks.
And I felt very good about the system. I think it’s one of the reasons I was so calm inside and maybe others weren’t as calm. They didn’t know as much about it as I did.
You need people to be ambitious, technically ambitious, “If there are five ways to do something, we’ll study them, but let’s study them very quickly and make a decision.” We can always change our mind. Changing your mind, I talk about one-way doors and two-way doors, most decisions are two-way doors.
And what happens, unfortunately, in companies, what can happen, is that you have a one-size-fits-all decision-making process where you end up using the heavyweight process on all decisions …
And I would often say, “You know what? I don’t think you’re right, but I’m going to gamble with you and you’re closer to the ground truth than I am. I’d known you for 20 years. You have great judgment. I don’t know that I’m right either. Not really, not for sure. All these decisions are complicated. Let’s do it your way.” But at least then you’ve made a decision and I’m agreeing to commit to that decision. So I’m not going to be second guessing it. I’m not going to be sniping at it. I’m not going to be saying, “I told you so.” I’m going to try actively to help make sure it works. That’s a really important teammate behavior.
There’s so many ways that dispute resolution is a really interesting thing on teams. And there are so many ways when two people disagree about something, even … I’m assuming the case for everybody is well-intentioned. They just have a very different opinion about what the right decision is. And in our society and inside companies, we have a bunch of mechanisms that we use to resolve these kinds of disputes. A lot of them are, I think, really bad. So an example of a really bad way of coming to agreement is compromise. So compromise, we’re in a room here and I could say, “Lex, how tall do you think this ceiling is?”
Another really bad resolution mechanism that happens all the time is just who’s more stubborn? This is also, let’s say two executives who disagree and they just have a war of attrition, and whichever one gets exhausted first capitulates to the other one. Again, you haven’t arrived at truth and this is very demoralizing. So this is where escalation, I try to ask people on my team and say, “Never get to a point where you are resolving something by who gets exhausted first. Escalate that.” I’ll help you make the decision because that’s so de-energized and such a terrible, lousy way to make a decision.
The disadvantage of hydrogen has always been that since it’s such a deep cryogen, it’s not storable. So it’s constantly boiling off and you’re losing propellant because it’s boiling off. And so what we’re doing as part of our lunar program is developing solar-powered cryo coolers that can actually make hydrogen a storable propellant for deep space. And that’s a real game-changer. It’s a game-changer for any high energy mission. So to the moon, but to the outer planets, to Mars, everywhere.
Here, what we’re doing is we have a single stage lunar lander that carries down enough propellant so that it can bring the whole thing back up so that it can be reused over and over. And the point of doing that, of course, is to reduce cost so that you can make lunar missions more affordable over time, which is that’s one of NASA’s big objectives because this time… The whole point of Artemis is go back to the moon, but this time to stay. So back in the Apollo program, we went to the moon six times and then ended the program and it really was too expensive to continue.
Similarly, we’re working on extracting oxygen from lunar regolith. So lunar regolith by weight has a lot of oxygen in it. It’s bound very tightly as oxides with other elements. And so you have to separate the oxygen, which is very energy intensive. So that also could work together with the solar cells. And then ultimately, we may be able to find practical quantities of ice in the permanently shadowed craters on the poles of the moon. And we know there is ice water or water ice in those craters, and we know that we can break that down with electrolysis into hydrogen and oxygen. And then you’d not only have oxygen, but you’d also have a very good high efficiency propellant fuel in hydrogen.
So there’s a lot we can do to make the moon more sustainable over time, but the very first step, the gate that all of that has to go through is we need to be able to land cargo and humans on the surface of the moon at an acceptable cost.
But it was so exciting. From 1994 when the company was founded to 1995 when we opened our doors, all the way until today, I find Amazon so exciting. And that doesn’t mean… It’s full of pain, full of problems. It’s like there’s so many things that need to be resolved and worked and made better and et cetera. But on balance, it’s so fun. It’s such a privilege. It’s been such a joy. I feel so grateful that I’ve been part of that journey. It’s just been incredible.
And when we work on programs at Amazon, we often make a list of tenants. And the tenants are… They’re not principles, they’re a little more tactical than principles, but it’s the main ideas that we want this program to embody, whatever those are. And one of the things that we do is we put, “These are the tenets for this program and parentheses.” We always put, “Unless you know a better way.” And that idea, “Unless you know a better way,” is so important because you never want to get trapped by dogma. You never want to get trapped by history. It doesn’t mean you discard history or ignore it. There’s so much value in what has worked in the past, but you can’t be blindly following what you’ve done. And that’s the heart of day one, is you’re always starting afresh.
So we talked about high velocity decision-making, that’s more difficult than it sounds. So maybe you can pick one that stands out to you as you can comment on. Eager adoption of external trends, high velocity decision-making, skeptical view of proxies. How do you fight off day two?
And so what happens is a little bit of a kind of inertia sets in where somebody a long time ago invented that metric and they invented that metric, they decided, “We need to watch for customer returns per unit sold as an important metric.” But they had a reason why they chose that metric, the person who invented that metric and decided it was worth watching. And then fast-forward five years, that metric is the proxy.
And so you’ve got to constantly be on guard and it’s very, very common. This is a nuanced problem. It’s very common, especially in large companies, that they’re managing to metrics that they don’t really understand. They don’t really know why they exist, and the world may have shifted out from under them a little and the metrics are no longer as relevant as they were when somebody 10 years earlier invented the metric.
And so science is all about truth-telling. It’s actually a very formal mechanism for trying to tell the truth. And even in science, you find that it’s hard to tell the truth. Even you’re supposed to have hypothesis and test it and find data and reject the hypothesis and so on, it’s not easy.
You can also fight inherent bias. There’s an optimism bias. If there are two interpretations of a new set of data and one of them is happy and one of them is unhappy, it’s a little dangerous to jump to the conclusion that the happy interpretation is right. You may want to compensate for that human bias of trying to find the silver lining and say, “Look, that might be good, but I’m going to go with it’s bad for now until we’re sure.”
And an early example of this was we had metrics that showed that our customers were waiting, I think less than, I don’t know, 60 seconds when they called a 1-800 number to get phone customer service. The wait time was supposed to be less than 60 seconds, but we had a lot of complaints that it was longer than that. And anecdotally it seemed longer than that. I would call customer service myself. And so one day we’re in a meeting, we’re going through the WBR, the weekly business review, and we get to this metric in the deck, and the guy who leads customer service is defending the metric. And I said, “Okay, let’s call.” Picked up the phone, and I dialed the 1-800 number and called customer service, and we just waited in silence.
So I know in our retail business at Amazon, 10 years from now, customers are still going to want low prices. I know they’re still going to want fast delivery, and I just know they’re still going to want big selection. So it’s impossible to imagine a scenario where 10 years from now where a customer says, “I love Amazon, I just wish the prices were a little higher,” or, “I love Amazon, I just wish you delivered a little more slowly.” So when you identify the big things you can tell they’re worth putting energy into because they’re stable in time.
Okay, but you’re asking about something a little different, which is in every customer experience, there are those big things. And by the way, it’s astonishingly hard to focus even on just the big things. So even though they’re obvious, they’re really hard to focus on. But in addition to that, there are all these little tiny customer experience deficiencies, and we call those paper cuts. We make long lists of them. And then we have dedicated teams that go fix paper cuts because the teams working on the big issues never get to the paper cuts. They never work their way down the list to get to… They’re working on big things, as they should and as you want them to. And so you need special teams who are charged with fixing…
Your podcast flies in the face of this. You do these long format things.
Then you have this debate about whether they’re going to be good for humanity or bad for humanity. Even specialized AI could be very bad for humanity. Just regular machine learning models can make certain weapons of war, that could be incredibly destructive and very powerful. And they’re not general AIs. They could just be very smart weapons. And so we have to think about all of those things. I’m very optimistic about this. So even in the face of all this uncertainty, my own view is that these powerful tools are much more likely to help us and save us even than they are to on balance hurt us and destroy us. I think we humans have a lot of ways of we can make ourselves go extinct. These things may help us not do that, so they may actually save us. So the people who are overly concerned, in my view, overly, it is a valid debate. I think that they may be missing part of the equation, which is how helpful they could be in making sure we don’t destroy ourselves.
I don’t know if you saw the movie Oppenheimer, but to me, first of all, I loved the movie and I thought the best part of the movie is this bureaucrat played by Robert Downey Jr, who some of the people I’ve talked to think that’s the most boring part of the movie. I thought it was the most fascinating because what’s going on here is you realize we have invented these awesome, destructive, powerful technologies called nuclear weapons and they’re managed and we humans, we’re not really capable of wielding those weapons. And that’s what he represented in that movie is here’s this guy, he wrongly thinks… he’s being so petty. He thinks that Oppenheimer said something bad to Einstein about him. They didn’t talk about him at all as you find out in the final scene of the movie. And yet he’s spent his career trying to be vengeful and petty.
And that’s the problem. We as a species are not really sophisticated enough and mature enough to handle these technologies. And by the way, before you get to general AI and the possibility of AI having agency and there’s a lot of things would have to happen, but there’s so much benefit that’s going to come from these technologies in the meantime, even before there are general AI in terms of better medicines and better tools to develop more technologies and so on. So I think it’s an incredible moment to be alive and to witness the transformations that are going to happen. How quickly will happen, no one knows. But over the next 10 years and 20 years, I think we’re going to see really remarkable advances. And I personally am very excited about it.
And I’ll think about it and I’ll be like, “No, I don’t think so.”
And he’ll look at me and say, “Yeah, I think you can.” And of course he’s right.
So my day of work, reading documents, having meetings, sometimes in person, sometimes over Zoom, depends on where I am. It’s all about the technology, it’s about the organization. I have architecture and technology meetings almost every day on various subsystems inside the vehicle, inside the engines. It’s super fun for me. My favorite part of it is the technology. My least favorite part of it is building organizations and so on. That’s important, but it’s also my least favorite part. So that’s why they call it work. You don’t always get to do what you want to do.
So you can read a half hour, and there are little problems with PowerPoint presentations too. Senior executives interrupt with questions halfway through the presentation. That question’s going to be answered on the next slide, but you never got there. If you read the whole memo in advance… I often write lots of questions that I have in the margins of these memos, and then I go cross them all out because by the time I get to the end of the memo, they’ve been answered. That’s why I save all that time.
You also get, if the person who’s preparing the memo, we talked earlier about group think and the fact that I go last in meetings and that you don’t want your ideas to pollute the meeting prematurely, the author of the memos has got to be very vulnerable. They’ve got to put all their thoughts out there and they’ve got to go first. But that’s great because it makes them really good. And you get to see their real ideas and you’re not trompling on them accidentally in a big PowerPoint presentation meeting.
The idea is that over time, and this will take hundreds of years, but over time, it will take on the patina of age, and then it will become a symbol for long-term thinking that will actually hopefully get humans to extend their thinking horizons. And in my view, that’s really important as we have become, as a species, as a civilization, more powerful. We’re really affecting the planet now. We’re really affecting each other. We have weapons of mass destruction. We have all kinds of things where we can really hurt ourselves and the problems we create can be so large. The unintended consequences of some of our actions like climate change, putting carbon in the atmosphere is a perfect example. That’s an unintended consequence of the Industrial Revolution, got a lot of benefits from it, but we’ve also got this side effect that is very detrimental.
We need to start training ourselves to think longer term. Long-term thinking is a giant lever. You can literally solve problems if you think long-term, that are impossible to solve if you think short-term. And we aren’t really good at thinking long-term. Five years is a tough timeframe for most institutions to think past. And we probably need to stretch that to 10 years and 15 years and 20 years and 25 years, and we’d do a better job for our children or our grandchildren if we could stretch those thinking horizons. And so the clock, in a way, it’s an art project, it’s a symbol. And if it ever has any power to influence people to think longer term, that won’t happen for hundreds of years, but we are going to build it now and let it accrue the patina of age.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 0:24 – Ranch
- 4:02 – Space
- 16:36 – Physics
- 26:10 – New Glenn
- 1:08:59 – Lunar program
- 1:18:55 – Amazon
- 1:36:16 – Principles
- 1:54:56 – Productivity
- 2:05:34 – Future of humanity
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and Blue Origin. This is his first time doing a conversation of this kind and of this length. And as he told me, it felt like we could have easily talked for many more hours, and I’m sure we will. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. And now, dear friends, here’s Jeff Bezos.
The following is a conversation with Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and Blue Origin. This is his first time doing a conversation of this kind and of this length. And as he told me, it felt like we could have easily talked for many more hours, and I’m sure we will. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. And now, dear friends, here’s Jeff Bezos.
Ranch
You spent a lot of your childhood with your grandfather on a ranch here in Texas.
Jeff Bezos
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
And I heard you had a lot of work to do around the ranch. So, what’s the coolest job you remember doing there?
And I heard you had a lot of work to do around the ranch. So, what’s the coolest job you remember doing there?
Jeff Bezos
Wow. Coolest?
Wow. Coolest?
Lex Fridman
Most interesting? Most memorable?
Most interesting? Most memorable?
Jeff Bezos
Most memorable?
Most memorable?
Lex Fridman
Most impactful?
Most impactful?
Jeff Bezos
It’s a real working ranch, and I spent all my summers on that ranch from age four to 16. And my grandfather was really taking me and in the early summers, he was letting me pretend to help on the ranch, because of course, a four-year-old is a burden, not a help in real life. He was really just watching me and taking care of me. And he was doing that because my mom was so young. She had me when she was 17, and so he was sort of giving her a break. And my grandmother and my grandfather would take me for these summers.
It’s a real working ranch, and I spent all my summers on that ranch from age four to 16. And my grandfather was really taking me and in the early summers, he was letting me pretend to help on the ranch, because of course, a four-year-old is a burden, not a help in real life. He was really just watching me and taking care of me. And he was doing that because my mom was so young. She had me when she was 17, and so he was sort of giving her a break. And my grandmother and my grandfather would take me for these summers.
But as I got a little older, I actually was helpful on the ranch and I loved it. My grandfather had a huge influence on me, a huge factor in my life. I did all the jobs you would do on a ranch. I’ve fixed windmills, and laid fences, and pipelines, and done all the things that any rancher would do, vaccinated the animals, everything. But after my grandmother died, I was about 12 and I kept coming to the ranch, so then it was just him and me, just the two of us. And he was completely addicted to the soap opera, Days of Our Lives. And we would go back to the ranch house every day around 1:00 PM or so to watch Days of Our Lives. Like sands through an hourglass, so are the Days of Our Lives.
Lex Fridman
Just the image of that, the two of you sitting there watching a soap opera, two ranchers.
Just the image of that, the two of you sitting there watching a soap opera, two ranchers.
Jeff Bezos
He had these big crazy dogs. It was really a very formative experience for me. But the key thing about it for me, the great gift I got from it was that my grandfather was so resourceful. He did everything himself. He made his own veterinary tools. He would make needles to suture the cattle up with. He would find a little piece of wire and heat it up and pound it thin and drill a hole in it and sharpen it. So, you learn different things on a ranch than you would learn growing up in a city.
He had these big crazy dogs. It was really a very formative experience for me. But the key thing about it for me, the great gift I got from it was that my grandfather was so resourceful. He did everything himself. He made his own veterinary tools. He would make needles to suture the cattle up with. He would find a little piece of wire and heat it up and pound it thin and drill a hole in it and sharpen it. So, you learn different things on a ranch than you would learn growing up in a city.
Lex Fridman
So, self-reliance?
So, self-reliance?
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, figuring out that you can solve problems with enough persistence and ingenuity. And my grandfather bought a D6 bulldozer, which is a big bulldozer, and he got it for like $5,000 because it was completely broken down. It was like a 1955 Caterpillar D6 bulldozer. New it would’ve cost, I don’t know, more than $100,000. And we spent an entire summer repairing that bulldozer. And we’d use mail order to buy big gears for the transmission, and they’d show up, they’d be too heavy to move, so we’d have to build a crane. Just that problem-solving mentality. He had it so powerfully. He did all of his own… He didn’t pick up the phone and call somebody, he would figure it out on his own. Doing his own veterinary work.
Yeah, figuring out that you can solve problems with enough persistence and ingenuity. And my grandfather bought a D6 bulldozer, which is a big bulldozer, and he got it for like $5,000 because it was completely broken down. It was like a 1955 Caterpillar D6 bulldozer. New it would’ve cost, I don’t know, more than $100,000. And we spent an entire summer repairing that bulldozer. And we’d use mail order to buy big gears for the transmission, and they’d show up, they’d be too heavy to move, so we’d have to build a crane. Just that problem-solving mentality. He had it so powerfully. He did all of his own… He didn’t pick up the phone and call somebody, he would figure it out on his own. Doing his own veterinary work.
Lex Fridman
But just the image of the two of you fixing a D6 bulldozer and then going in for a little break at 1:00 PM to watch soap operas.
But just the image of the two of you fixing a D6 bulldozer and then going in for a little break at 1:00 PM to watch soap operas.
Jeff Bezos
Days of Our Lives. Laying on the floor, that’s how he watched TV. He was a really, really remarkable guy.
Days of Our Lives. Laying on the floor, that’s how he watched TV. He was a really, really remarkable guy.
Space
Lex Fridman
That’s how I imagine Clint Eastwood also in all those westerns, when he’s not doing what he’s doing, he’s just watching soap operas. All right. I read that you fell in love with the idea of space and space exploration when you were five, watching Neil Armstrong walking on the moon. So, let me ask you to look back at the historical context and impact of that. So, the space race from 1957 to 1969 between the Soviet Union and the US was, in many ways, epic. It was a rapid sequence of dramatic events. First satellite to space, first human to space, first spacewalk, first uncrewed landing on the moon. Then, some failures, explosions, deaths on both sides actually. And then, the first human walking on the moon. What are some of the more inspiring moments or insights you take away from that time, those few years at just 12 years?
That’s how I imagine Clint Eastwood also in all those westerns, when he’s not doing what he’s doing, he’s just watching soap operas. All right. I read that you fell in love with the idea of space and space exploration when you were five, watching Neil Armstrong walking on the moon. So, let me ask you to look back at the historical context and impact of that. So, the space race from 1957 to 1969 between the Soviet Union and the US was, in many ways, epic. It was a rapid sequence of dramatic events. First satellite to space, first human to space, first spacewalk, first uncrewed landing on the moon. Then, some failures, explosions, deaths on both sides actually. And then, the first human walking on the moon. What are some of the more inspiring moments or insights you take away from that time, those few years at just 12 years?
Jeff Bezos
Well, I mean there’s so much inspiring there. One of the great things to take away from that, one of the great von Braun quotes is, “I have come to use the word impossible with great caution.” And so, that’s kind of the big story of Apollo is that going to the moon was literally an analogy that people used for something that’s impossible. “Oh, yeah, you’ll do that when men walk on the moon.” And of course, it finally happened. So, I think it was pulled forward in time because of the space race.
Well, I mean there’s so much inspiring there. One of the great things to take away from that, one of the great von Braun quotes is, “I have come to use the word impossible with great caution.” And so, that’s kind of the big story of Apollo is that going to the moon was literally an analogy that people used for something that’s impossible. “Oh, yeah, you’ll do that when men walk on the moon.” And of course, it finally happened. So, I think it was pulled forward in time because of the space race.
I think with the geopolitical implications and how much resource was put into it. At the peak, that program was spending 2% or 3% of GDP on the Apollo program. So, much resource. I think it was pulled forward in time. We kind of did it ahead of when we, quote, unquote, should have done it. And so, in that way, it’s also a technical marvel. I mean it’s truly incredible. It’s the 20th century version of building the pyramids or something. It’s an achievement that because it was pulled forward in time and because it did something that had previously been thought impossible, it rightly deserves its place in the pantheon of great human achievements.
Lex Fridman
And of course, you named the rockets that Blue Origin is working on after some of the folks involved.
And of course, you named the rockets that Blue Origin is working on after some of the folks involved.
Jeff Bezos
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
I don’t understand why I didn’t say New Gagarin. Is that-
I don’t understand why I didn’t say New Gagarin. Is that-
Jeff Bezos
There’s an American bias in the naming. I apologize-
There’s an American bias in the naming. I apologize-
Lex Fridman
That’s very strange.
That’s very strange.
Jeff Bezos
… Lex.
… Lex.
Lex Fridman
Was just asking for a friend, clarifying.
Was just asking for a friend, clarifying.
Jeff Bezos
I’m a big fan of Gagarin’s though. And in fact, I think his first words in space I think are incredible. He purportedly said, “My God, it’s blue.” And that really drives home. No one had seen the Earth from space. No one knew that we were on this blue planet. No one knew what it looked like from out there, and Gagarin was the first person to see it.
I’m a big fan of Gagarin’s though. And in fact, I think his first words in space I think are incredible. He purportedly said, “My God, it’s blue.” And that really drives home. No one had seen the Earth from space. No one knew that we were on this blue planet. No one knew what it looked like from out there, and Gagarin was the first person to see it.
Lex Fridman
One of the things I think about is how dangerous those early days were for Gagarin, for Glenn, for everybody involved. How big of a risk they were all taking.
One of the things I think about is how dangerous those early days were for Gagarin, for Glenn, for everybody involved. How big of a risk they were all taking.
Jeff Bezos
They were taking huge risks. I’m not sure what the Soviets thought about Gagarin’s flight, but I think that the Americans thought that the Alan Shepard flight, the flight that New Shepherd is named after, the First American in space, he went on his suborbital flight, they thought he had about a 75% chance of success. So, that’s a pretty big risk, a 25% risk.
They were taking huge risks. I’m not sure what the Soviets thought about Gagarin’s flight, but I think that the Americans thought that the Alan Shepard flight, the flight that New Shepherd is named after, the First American in space, he went on his suborbital flight, they thought he had about a 75% chance of success. So, that’s a pretty big risk, a 25% risk.
Lex Fridman
It’s kind of interesting that Alan Shepard is not quite as famous as John Glenn. So, for people who don’t know, Alan Shepard is the first astronaut-
It’s kind of interesting that Alan Shepard is not quite as famous as John Glenn. So, for people who don’t know, Alan Shepard is the first astronaut-
Jeff Bezos
The first American in space.
The first American in space.
Lex Fridman
American in suborbital flight.
American in suborbital flight.
Jeff Bezos
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
And then, the first orbital flight is-
And then, the first orbital flight is-
Jeff Bezos
John Glenn is the first American to orbit the Earth. By the way, I have the most charming, sweet, incredible letter from John Glenn, which I have framed and hanging on my office wall.
John Glenn is the first American to orbit the Earth. By the way, I have the most charming, sweet, incredible letter from John Glenn, which I have framed and hanging on my office wall.
Lex Fridman
What did he say?
What did he say?
Jeff Bezos
Where he tells me how grateful he is that we have named New Glenn after him. And he sent me that letter about a week before he died. And it’s really an incredible… It’s also a very funny letter. He’s writing and he says, “This is a letter about New Glenn from the original Glenn.” And he’s got a great sense of humor and he’s very happy about it and grateful. It’s very sweet.
Where he tells me how grateful he is that we have named New Glenn after him. And he sent me that letter about a week before he died. And it’s really an incredible… It’s also a very funny letter. He’s writing and he says, “This is a letter about New Glenn from the original Glenn.” And he’s got a great sense of humor and he’s very happy about it and grateful. It’s very sweet.
Lex Fridman
Does he say, “P.S. Don’t mess this up,” or is that-
Does he say, “P.S. Don’t mess this up,” or is that-
Jeff Bezos
No, he doesn’t.
No, he doesn’t.
Lex Fridman
“Make me look good.”
“Make me look good.”
Jeff Bezos
He doesn’t do that. But John, wherever you are, we’ve got you covered.
He doesn’t do that. But John, wherever you are, we’ve got you covered.
Lex Fridman
Good. So, back to maybe the big picture of space. When you look up at the stars and think big, what do you hope is the future of humanity, hundreds, thousands of years from now out in space?
Good. So, back to maybe the big picture of space. When you look up at the stars and think big, what do you hope is the future of humanity, hundreds, thousands of years from now out in space?
Jeff Bezos
I would love to see a trillion humans living in the solar system. If we had a trillion humans, we would have, at any given time, 1,000 Mozarts and 1,000 Einsteins. That our solar system would be full of life and intelligence and energy. And we can easily support a civilization that large with all of the resources in the solar system.
I would love to see a trillion humans living in the solar system. If we had a trillion humans, we would have, at any given time, 1,000 Mozarts and 1,000 Einsteins. That our solar system would be full of life and intelligence and energy. And we can easily support a civilization that large with all of the resources in the solar system.
Lex Fridman
So, what do you think that looks like? Giant space stations?
So, what do you think that looks like? Giant space stations?
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, the only way to get to that vision is with giant space stations. The planetary surfaces are just way too small. So, I mean, unless you turn them into giant space stations or something. But yeah, we will take materials from the moon and from near-Earth objects and from the asteroid belt and so on, and we’ll build giant O’Neill style colonies and people will live in those. They have a lot of advantages over planetary surfaces. You can spin them to get normal Earth gravity. You can put them where you want them. I think most people are going to want to live near Earth, not necessarily in Earth orbit, but near Earth vicinity orbits. And so, they can move relatively quickly back and forth between their station and Earth. I think a lot of people, especially in the early stages, are not going to want to give up Earth altogether.
Yeah, the only way to get to that vision is with giant space stations. The planetary surfaces are just way too small. So, I mean, unless you turn them into giant space stations or something. But yeah, we will take materials from the moon and from near-Earth objects and from the asteroid belt and so on, and we’ll build giant O’Neill style colonies and people will live in those. They have a lot of advantages over planetary surfaces. You can spin them to get normal Earth gravity. You can put them where you want them. I think most people are going to want to live near Earth, not necessarily in Earth orbit, but near Earth vicinity orbits. And so, they can move relatively quickly back and forth between their station and Earth. I think a lot of people, especially in the early stages, are not going to want to give up Earth altogether.
Lex Fridman
They go to earth for vacation?
They go to earth for vacation?
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, same way that you might go to Yellowstone National Park for vacation, people will… And people will get to choose where they live on Earth or whether they live in space, but they’ll be able to use much more energy and much more material resource in space than they would be able to use on Earth.
Yeah, same way that you might go to Yellowstone National Park for vacation, people will… And people will get to choose where they live on Earth or whether they live in space, but they’ll be able to use much more energy and much more material resource in space than they would be able to use on Earth.
Lex Fridman
One of the interesting ideas you had is to move the heavy industry away from Earth. So, people sometimes have this idea that somehow space exploration is in conflict with the celebration of the planet Earth, that we should focus on preserving Earth. And basically, your idea is that space travel and space exploration is a way to preserve Earth.
One of the interesting ideas you had is to move the heavy industry away from Earth. So, people sometimes have this idea that somehow space exploration is in conflict with the celebration of the planet Earth, that we should focus on preserving Earth. And basically, your idea is that space travel and space exploration is a way to preserve Earth.
Jeff Bezos
Exactly. We’ve sent robotic probes to all the planets, we know that this is the good one.
Exactly. We’ve sent robotic probes to all the planets, we know that this is the good one.
Lex Fridman
Not to play favorites or anything, but…
Not to play favorites or anything, but…
Jeff Bezos
Earth really is the good planet. It’s amazing. The ecosystem we have here, all of the life and the lush plant life and the water resources, everything. This planet is really extraordinary. And of course, we evolved on this planet, so of course it’s perfect for us, but it’s also perfect for all the advanced life forms on this planet, all the animals and so on. And so, this is a gem. We do need to take care of it. And as we enter the Anthropocene, as we humans have gotten so sophisticated and large and impactful, as we stride across this planet, that is going to… We want to use a lot of energy. We want to use a lot of energy per capita. We’ve gotten amazing things. We don’t want to go backwards.
Earth really is the good planet. It’s amazing. The ecosystem we have here, all of the life and the lush plant life and the water resources, everything. This planet is really extraordinary. And of course, we evolved on this planet, so of course it’s perfect for us, but it’s also perfect for all the advanced life forms on this planet, all the animals and so on. And so, this is a gem. We do need to take care of it. And as we enter the Anthropocene, as we humans have gotten so sophisticated and large and impactful, as we stride across this planet, that is going to… We want to use a lot of energy. We want to use a lot of energy per capita. We’ve gotten amazing things. We don’t want to go backwards.
If you think about the good old days, they’re mostly an illusion. In almost every way, life is better for almost everyone today than it was say 50 years ago or 100 years ago. We live better lives by and large than our grandparents did, and their grandparents did, and so on. And you can see that in global illiteracy rates, global poverty rates, global infant mortality rates. Almost any metric you choose, we’re better off than we used to be. And we get antibiotics and all kinds of lifesaving medical care, and so on, and so on. And there’s one thing that is moving backwards, and it’s the natural world.
So, it is a fact that 500 years ago, pre-industrial age, the natural world was pristine. It was incredible. And we have traded some of that pristine beauty for all of these other gifts that we have as an advanced society. And we can have both, but to do that, we have to go to space. And the most fundamental measure is energy usage per capita. You do want to continue to use more and more energy, it is going to make your life better in so many ways, but that’s not compatible ultimately with living on a finite planet. And so, we have to go out into the solar system. And really, you could argue about when you have to do that, but you can’t credibly argue about whether you have to do that.
Lex Fridman
Eventually we have to do that.
Eventually we have to do that.
Jeff Bezos
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
Well, you don’t often talk about it, but let me ask you on that topic about the Blue Ring and the Orbital Reef space infrastructure projects. What’s your vision for these?
Well, you don’t often talk about it, but let me ask you on that topic about the Blue Ring and the Orbital Reef space infrastructure projects. What’s your vision for these?
Jeff Bezos
So, Blue Ring is a very interesting spacecraft that is designed to take up to 3,000 kilograms of payload up to geosynchronous orbit or in lunar vicinity. It has two different kinds of propulsion. It has chemical propulsion and it has electric propulsion. And so, you can use Blue Ring in a couple of different ways. You can slowly move, let’s say up to geosynchronous orbit using electric propulsion. That might take 100 days or 150 days, depending on how much mass you’re carrying. And reserve your chemical propulsion, so that you can change orbits quickly in geosynchronous orbit. Or you can use the chemical propulsion first to quickly get up to geosynchronous and then use your electrical propulsion to slowly change your geosynchronous orbit.
So, Blue Ring is a very interesting spacecraft that is designed to take up to 3,000 kilograms of payload up to geosynchronous orbit or in lunar vicinity. It has two different kinds of propulsion. It has chemical propulsion and it has electric propulsion. And so, you can use Blue Ring in a couple of different ways. You can slowly move, let’s say up to geosynchronous orbit using electric propulsion. That might take 100 days or 150 days, depending on how much mass you’re carrying. And reserve your chemical propulsion, so that you can change orbits quickly in geosynchronous orbit. Or you can use the chemical propulsion first to quickly get up to geosynchronous and then use your electrical propulsion to slowly change your geosynchronous orbit.
Blue Ring has a couple of interesting features. It provides a lot of services to these payloads. So, it could be one large payload or it can be a number of small payloads, and it provides thermal management, it provides electric power, it provides compute, provides communications. And so, when you design a payload for Blue Ring, you don’t have to figure out all of those things on your own. So, kind of radiation tolerant compute is a complicated thing to do. And so, we have an unusually large amount of radiation tolerant compute on board Blue Ring, and your payload can just use that when it needs to. So, it’s sort of all these services… It’s like a set of APIs. It’s a little bit like Amazon Web Services, but-
Lex Fridman
For space?
For space?
Jeff Bezos
… for space payloads that need to move about in Earth vicinity or lunar vicinity.
… for space payloads that need to move about in Earth vicinity or lunar vicinity.
Lex Fridman
AWSS space. So, compute and space. So, you get a giant chemical rocket to get a payload out to orbit. And then, you have these admins that show up, this Blue Ring thing that manages various things like compute?
AWSS space. So, compute and space. So, you get a giant chemical rocket to get a payload out to orbit. And then, you have these admins that show up, this Blue Ring thing that manages various things like compute?
Jeff Bezos
Exactly. And it can also provide transportation and move you around to different orbits.
Exactly. And it can also provide transportation and move you around to different orbits.
Lex Fridman
Including humans, do you think?
Including humans, do you think?
Jeff Bezos
No, Blue Ring is not designed to move humans around. It’s designed to move payloads around. So, we’re also building a lunar lander, which is of course designed to land humans on the surface of the moon.
No, Blue Ring is not designed to move humans around. It’s designed to move payloads around. So, we’re also building a lunar lander, which is of course designed to land humans on the surface of the moon.
Physics
Lex Fridman
I’m going to ask you about that, but let me ask you to just step back to the old days. You were at Princeton with aspirations to be a theoretical physicist.
I’m going to ask you about that, but let me ask you to just step back to the old days. You were at Princeton with aspirations to be a theoretical physicist.
Jeff Bezos
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
What attracted you to physics and why did you change your mind and not become… Why are you not Jeff Bezos, the famous theoretical physicist?
What attracted you to physics and why did you change your mind and not become… Why are you not Jeff Bezos, the famous theoretical physicist?
Jeff Bezos
So, I loved physics and I studied physics and computer science, and I was proceeding along the physics path. I was planning to major in physics, and I wanted to be a theoretical physicist. And the computer science was sort of something I was doing for fun. I really loved it and I was very good at the programming and doing those things, and I enjoyed all my computer science classes immensely. But I really was determined to be a theoretical physicist. That’s why I went to Princeton in the first place. It was definitely… And then, I realized I was going to be a mediocre theoretical physicist. And there were a few people in my classes, like in quantum mechanics and so on, who they could effortlessly do things that were so difficult for me. And I realized there are 1,000 ways to be smart.
So, I loved physics and I studied physics and computer science, and I was proceeding along the physics path. I was planning to major in physics, and I wanted to be a theoretical physicist. And the computer science was sort of something I was doing for fun. I really loved it and I was very good at the programming and doing those things, and I enjoyed all my computer science classes immensely. But I really was determined to be a theoretical physicist. That’s why I went to Princeton in the first place. It was definitely… And then, I realized I was going to be a mediocre theoretical physicist. And there were a few people in my classes, like in quantum mechanics and so on, who they could effortlessly do things that were so difficult for me. And I realized there are 1,000 ways to be smart.
Theoretical physics is not one of those fields where only the top few percent actually move the state-of-the-art forward. It’s one of those things where your brain has to be wired in a certain way. And there was a guy named… One of these people who convinced me, he didn’t mean to convince me, but just by observing him, he convinced me that I should not try to be a theoretical physicist. His name was Yosanta. And Yosanta was from Sri Lanka, and he was one of the most brilliant people I’d ever met. My friend Joe and I were working on a very difficult partial differential equations problem set one night. And there was one problem that we worked on for three hours and we made no headway whatsoever. And we looked up at each other at the same time and we said, “Yosanta.”
So, we went to Yosanta’s dorm room and he was there. He was almost always there. And we said, “Yosanta, we’re having trouble solving this partial differential equation. Would you mind taking a look?” And he said, “Of course.” By the way, he was the most humble, most kind person. And so, he looked at our problem and he stared at it for just a few seconds, maybe 10 seconds, and he said, “cosine.” And I said, “What do you mean, Yosanta? What do you mean cosine?” He said, “That’s the answer.” And I said, “No, no, no, come on.” And he said, “Let me show you.” And he took out some paper and he wrote down three pages of equations, everything canceled out, and the answer was cosine.
And I said, “Yosanta, did you do that in your head?” And he said, “Oh, no. That would be impossible. A few years ago I solved a similar problem and I could map this problem onto that problem, and then it was immediately obvious that the answer was cosine.” You have an experience like that, you realize maybe being a theoretical physicist isn’t what the universe wants you to be. And so, I switched to computer science and that worked out really well for me. I enjoy it. I still enjoy it today.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s a particular kind of intuition you need to be a great physicist, and applied to physics.
Yeah, there’s a particular kind of intuition you need to be a great physicist, and applied to physics.
Jeff Bezos
I think the mathematical skill required today is so high. You have to be a world-class mathematician to be a successful theoretical physicist today. And you probably need other skills too, intuition, lateral thinking and so on. But without just top-notch math skills, you’re unlikely to be successful.
I think the mathematical skill required today is so high. You have to be a world-class mathematician to be a successful theoretical physicist today. And you probably need other skills too, intuition, lateral thinking and so on. But without just top-notch math skills, you’re unlikely to be successful.
Lex Fridman
And visualization skill, you have to be able to really do these kinds of thought experiments if you want truly great creativity. Actually Walter Isaacson writes about you and puts you on the same level as Einstein and-
And visualization skill, you have to be able to really do these kinds of thought experiments if you want truly great creativity. Actually Walter Isaacson writes about you and puts you on the same level as Einstein and-
Jeff Bezos
Well, that’s very kind. I’m an inventor. If you want to boil down what I am, I’m really an inventor. And I look at things and I can come up with atypical solutions. And then, I can create 100 such atypical solutions for something, 99 of them may not survive scrutiny, but one of those 100 is like, “Hmm, maybe that might work.” And then, you can keep going from there. So, that kind of lateral thinking, that kind of inventiveness in a high-dimensionality space where the search space is very large, that’s where my inventive skills come… I self-identify as an inventor more than anything else.
Well, that’s very kind. I’m an inventor. If you want to boil down what I am, I’m really an inventor. And I look at things and I can come up with atypical solutions. And then, I can create 100 such atypical solutions for something, 99 of them may not survive scrutiny, but one of those 100 is like, “Hmm, maybe that might work.” And then, you can keep going from there. So, that kind of lateral thinking, that kind of inventiveness in a high-dimensionality space where the search space is very large, that’s where my inventive skills come… I self-identify as an inventor more than anything else.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And he describes in all kinds of different ways, Walter Isaacson does, that creativity combined with childlike wander that you’ve maintained still to this day, all of that combined together. If you were to study your own brain, introspect, how do you think? What’s your thinking process like? We’ll talk about the writing process of putting it down on paper, which is quite rigorous and famous at Amazon. But when you sit down, maybe alone, maybe with others, and thinking through this high-dimensional space and looking for creative solutions, creative paths forward, is there something you could say about that process?
Yeah. And he describes in all kinds of different ways, Walter Isaacson does, that creativity combined with childlike wander that you’ve maintained still to this day, all of that combined together. If you were to study your own brain, introspect, how do you think? What’s your thinking process like? We’ll talk about the writing process of putting it down on paper, which is quite rigorous and famous at Amazon. But when you sit down, maybe alone, maybe with others, and thinking through this high-dimensional space and looking for creative solutions, creative paths forward, is there something you could say about that process?
Jeff Bezos
It’s such a good question, and I honestly don’t know how it works. If I did, I would try to explain it. I know it involves lots of wandering, so when I sit down to work on a problem, I know I don’t know where I’m going. So, to go in a straight line… To be efficient… Efficiency and invention are sort of at odds, because real invention, Not incremental improvement… Incremental improvement is so important in every endeavor, in everything you do, you have to work hard on also just making things a little bit better. But I’m talking about real invention, real lateral thinking that requires wandering, and you have to give yourself permission to wander.
It’s such a good question, and I honestly don’t know how it works. If I did, I would try to explain it. I know it involves lots of wandering, so when I sit down to work on a problem, I know I don’t know where I’m going. So, to go in a straight line… To be efficient… Efficiency and invention are sort of at odds, because real invention, Not incremental improvement… Incremental improvement is so important in every endeavor, in everything you do, you have to work hard on also just making things a little bit better. But I’m talking about real invention, real lateral thinking that requires wandering, and you have to give yourself permission to wander.
I think a lot of people, and they feel like wandering is inefficient. And when I sit down at a meeting, I don’t know how long the meeting is going to take if we’re trying to solve a problem, because if I did, then I’d know there’s some kind of straight line that we’re drawing to the solution. The reality is we may have to wander for a long time. And I do like group invention. I think there’s really nothing more fun than sitting at a whiteboard with a group of smart people and spit balling and coming up with new ideas and objections to those ideas, and then solutions to the objections and going back and forth. So, sometimes you wake up with an idea in the middle of the night and sometimes you sit down with a group of people and go back and forth, and both things are really pleasurable.
Lex Fridman
And when you wander, I think one key thing is to notice a good idea. And maybe to notice the kernel of a good idea. I’ll maybe pull at that string. Because I don’t think good ideas come fully-formed.
And when you wander, I think one key thing is to notice a good idea. And maybe to notice the kernel of a good idea. I’ll maybe pull at that string. Because I don’t think good ideas come fully-formed.
Jeff Bezos
100% right. In fact, when I come up with what I think is a good idea and it survives the first level of scrutiny that I do in my own head, and I’m ready to tell somebody else about the idea, I will often say, “Look, it is going to be really easy for you to find objections to this idea, but work with me.”
100% right. In fact, when I come up with what I think is a good idea and it survives the first level of scrutiny that I do in my own head, and I’m ready to tell somebody else about the idea, I will often say, “Look, it is going to be really easy for you to find objections to this idea, but work with me.”
Lex Fridman
There’s something there.
There’s something there.
Jeff Bezos
There’s something there. And that is intuition, because it’s really easy to kill new ideas in the beginning because there’s so many easy objections to them. So, you need to kind of forewarn people and say, “Look, I know it’s going to take a lot of work to get this to a fully-formed idea. Let’s get started on that. It’ll be fun.”
There’s something there. And that is intuition, because it’s really easy to kill new ideas in the beginning because there’s so many easy objections to them. So, you need to kind of forewarn people and say, “Look, I know it’s going to take a lot of work to get this to a fully-formed idea. Let’s get started on that. It’ll be fun.”
Lex Fridman
So, you got that ability to say cosine in you somewhere after all, maybe not on math, but-
So, you got that ability to say cosine in you somewhere after all, maybe not on math, but-
Jeff Bezos
In a different domain.
In a different domain.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Jeff Bezos
There are 1,000 ways to be smart, by the way, and that is a really… When I go around and I meet people, I’m always looking for the way that they’re smart. And you find that’s one of the things that makes the world so interesting and fun is that it’s not like IQ is a single dimension. There are people who are smart in such unique ways.
There are 1,000 ways to be smart, by the way, and that is a really… When I go around and I meet people, I’m always looking for the way that they’re smart. And you find that’s one of the things that makes the world so interesting and fun is that it’s not like IQ is a single dimension. There are people who are smart in such unique ways.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, you just gave me a good response when somebody calls me an idiot on the internet. “You know, there’s 1,000 ways to be smart, sir.”
Yeah, you just gave me a good response when somebody calls me an idiot on the internet. “You know, there’s 1,000 ways to be smart, sir.”
Jeff Bezos
Well, they might tell you, “Yeah, but there are a million to be ways to be dumb.”
Well, they might tell you, “Yeah, but there are a million to be ways to be dumb.”
New Glenn
Lex Fridman
Yeah, right. I feel like that’s a Mark Twain quote. Okay. All right. You gave me an amazing tour of Blue Origin Rocket Factory and Launch Complex in the historic Cape Canaveral. That’s where New Glenn, the big rocket we talked about, is being built and will launch. Can you explain what the New Glenn rocket is and tell me some interesting technical aspects of how it works?
Yeah, right. I feel like that’s a Mark Twain quote. Okay. All right. You gave me an amazing tour of Blue Origin Rocket Factory and Launch Complex in the historic Cape Canaveral. That’s where New Glenn, the big rocket we talked about, is being built and will launch. Can you explain what the New Glenn rocket is and tell me some interesting technical aspects of how it works?
Jeff Bezos
Sure. New Glenn is a very large heavy-lift launch vehicle. It’ll take about 45 metric tons to LEO, very large class. It’s about half the thrust, a little more than half the thrust of the Saturn V rocket. So, it’s about 3.9 million pounds of thrust on liftoff. The booster has seven BE-4 engines. Each engine generates a little more than 550,000 pounds of thrust. The engines are fueled by liquified natural gas, LNG as the fuel, and LOX as the oxidizer. The cycle is an ox-riched stage combustion cycle. It’s a cycle that was really pioneered by the Russians. It’s a very good cycle. And that engine is also going to power the first stage of the Vulcan rocket, which is the United Launch Alliance rocket. Then the second stage of New Glenn is powered by two BE-3U engines, which is a upper-stage variant of our New Shepard liquid hydrogen engine.
Sure. New Glenn is a very large heavy-lift launch vehicle. It’ll take about 45 metric tons to LEO, very large class. It’s about half the thrust, a little more than half the thrust of the Saturn V rocket. So, it’s about 3.9 million pounds of thrust on liftoff. The booster has seven BE-4 engines. Each engine generates a little more than 550,000 pounds of thrust. The engines are fueled by liquified natural gas, LNG as the fuel, and LOX as the oxidizer. The cycle is an ox-riched stage combustion cycle. It’s a cycle that was really pioneered by the Russians. It’s a very good cycle. And that engine is also going to power the first stage of the Vulcan rocket, which is the United Launch Alliance rocket. Then the second stage of New Glenn is powered by two BE-3U engines, which is a upper-stage variant of our New Shepard liquid hydrogen engine.
So, the BE-3U has 160,000 pounds of thrust, so two of those, 320,000 pounds of thrust. And hydrogen is a very good propellant for upper stages because it has very high ISP. It’s not a great propellant in my view for booster stages, because the stages then get physically so large. Hydrogen has very high ISP, but liquid hydrogen is not dense at all. So, to store liquid hydrogen, if you need to store many thousands of pounds of liquid hydrogen, your liquid hydrogen tank gets very large. So, you get more benefit from the higher ISP, the specific impulse, you get more benefit from the higher specific impulse on the second stage. And that stage carries less propellant, so you don’t get such geometrically-gigantic tanks. The Delta IV is an example of a vehicle that is all hydrogen. The booster stage is also hydrogen, and I think that it’s a very effective vehicle, but it never was very cost-effective. So, it’s operationally very capable but not very cost-effective.
Lex Fridman
So, size is also costly?
So, size is also costly?
Jeff Bezos
Size is costly. So, it’s interesting. Rockets love to be big. Everything works better.
Size is costly. So, it’s interesting. Rockets love to be big. Everything works better.
Lex Fridman
What do you mean by that? You’ve told me that before. It sounds epic, but what does it mean?
What do you mean by that? You’ve told me that before. It sounds epic, but what does it mean?
Jeff Bezos
I mean, when you look at the physics of rocket engines, and also when you look at parasitic mass… Let’s say you have an avionic system, so you have a guidance and control system, that is going to be about the same mass and size for a giant rocket as it is going to be for a tiny rocket. And so, that’s just parasitic mass that is very consequential if you’re building a very small rocket, but is trivial if you’re building a very large rocket. So, you have the parasitic mass thing. And then if you look at, for example, rocket engines have turbo pumps. They have to pressurize the fuel in the oxidizer up to a very high pressure level in order to inject it into the thrust chamber where it burns. And those pumps, all rotating machines, in fact, get more efficient as they get larger. So, really tiny turbo pumps are very challenging to manufacture, and any kind of gaps between the housing, for example, and the rotating impeller that pressurizes the fuel, there has to be some gap there. You can’t have those parts scraping against one another, and those gaps drive inefficiencies. And so, if you have a very large turbo pump, those gaps in percentage terms end up being very small. And so, there’s a bunch of things that you end up loving about having a large rocket and that you end up hating for a small rocket. But there’s a giant exception to this rule, and it is manufacturing. So, manufacturing large structures is very, very challenging. It’s a pain in the butt. And so, if you’re making a small rocket engine, you can move all the pieces by hand, you could assemble it on a table, one person can do it. You don’t need cranes and heavy lift operations and tooling and so on and so on. When you start building big objects, infrastructure, civil infrastructure, just like the launchpad and all this we went and visited, I took you to the launchpad. And you can see it’s so monumental.
I mean, when you look at the physics of rocket engines, and also when you look at parasitic mass… Let’s say you have an avionic system, so you have a guidance and control system, that is going to be about the same mass and size for a giant rocket as it is going to be for a tiny rocket. And so, that’s just parasitic mass that is very consequential if you’re building a very small rocket, but is trivial if you’re building a very large rocket. So, you have the parasitic mass thing. And then if you look at, for example, rocket engines have turbo pumps. They have to pressurize the fuel in the oxidizer up to a very high pressure level in order to inject it into the thrust chamber where it burns. And those pumps, all rotating machines, in fact, get more efficient as they get larger. So, really tiny turbo pumps are very challenging to manufacture, and any kind of gaps between the housing, for example, and the rotating impeller that pressurizes the fuel, there has to be some gap there. You can’t have those parts scraping against one another, and those gaps drive inefficiencies. And so, if you have a very large turbo pump, those gaps in percentage terms end up being very small. And so, there’s a bunch of things that you end up loving about having a large rocket and that you end up hating for a small rocket. But there’s a giant exception to this rule, and it is manufacturing. So, manufacturing large structures is very, very challenging. It’s a pain in the butt. And so, if you’re making a small rocket engine, you can move all the pieces by hand, you could assemble it on a table, one person can do it. You don’t need cranes and heavy lift operations and tooling and so on and so on. When you start building big objects, infrastructure, civil infrastructure, just like the launchpad and all this we went and visited, I took you to the launchpad. And you can see it’s so monumental.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it is.
Yeah, it is.
Jeff Bezos
And so, just these things become major undertakings, both from an engineering point of view, but also from a construction and cost point of view.
And so, just these things become major undertakings, both from an engineering point of view, but also from a construction and cost point of view.
Lex Fridman
And even the foundation of the launchpad. I mean, this is Florida, isn’t it swamp land? How deep do you have to go?
And even the foundation of the launchpad. I mean, this is Florida, isn’t it swamp land? How deep do you have to go?
Jeff Bezos
At Cape Canaveral, in fact, most launch pads are on beaches somewhere on the ocean side because you want to launch over water for safety reasons. Yes, you have to drive pilings, dozens and dozens and dozens of pilings, 50, 100, 150 feet deep to get enough structural integrity for these very large… Yes, these turn into major civil engineering projects.
At Cape Canaveral, in fact, most launch pads are on beaches somewhere on the ocean side because you want to launch over water for safety reasons. Yes, you have to drive pilings, dozens and dozens and dozens of pilings, 50, 100, 150 feet deep to get enough structural integrity for these very large… Yes, these turn into major civil engineering projects.
Lex Fridman
I just have to say everything about that factory is pretty badass. You said tooling, the bigger it gets, the more epic it is.
I just have to say everything about that factory is pretty badass. You said tooling, the bigger it gets, the more epic it is.
Jeff Bezos
It does make it epic. It’s fun to look at. It’s extraordinary.
It does make it epic. It’s fun to look at. It’s extraordinary.
Lex Fridman
It’s humbling also because humans are so small compared to it.
It’s humbling also because humans are so small compared to it.
Jeff Bezos
We are building these enormous machines that are harnessing enormous amounts of chemical power in very, very compact packages. It’s truly extraordinary.
We are building these enormous machines that are harnessing enormous amounts of chemical power in very, very compact packages. It’s truly extraordinary.
Lex Fridman
But then, there’s all the different components and the materials involved. Is there something interesting that you can describe about the materials that comprise the rocket? So, it has to be as light as possible, I guess, whilst withstanding the heat and the harsh conditions?
But then, there’s all the different components and the materials involved. Is there something interesting that you can describe about the materials that comprise the rocket? So, it has to be as light as possible, I guess, whilst withstanding the heat and the harsh conditions?
Jeff Bezos
Yeah-
Yeah-
Lex Fridman
Whilst withstanding the heat and the harsh conditions?
Whilst withstanding the heat and the harsh conditions?
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, I play a little game sometimes with other rocket people that I run into where say, “What are the things that would amaze the 1960s engineers? What’s changed?” Because surprisingly, some of rocketry’s greatest hits have not changed. They would recognize immediately a lot of what we do today and it’s exactly what they pioneered back in the ’60s. But a few things have changed. The use of carbon composites is very different today. We can build very sophisticated … You saw our carbon tape laying machine that builds the giant fairings and we can build these incredibly light, very stiff fairing structures out of carbon composite material that they could not have dreamed of. The efficiency, the structural efficiency of that material is so high compared to any metallic material you might use or anything else. So that’s one.
Yeah, I play a little game sometimes with other rocket people that I run into where say, “What are the things that would amaze the 1960s engineers? What’s changed?” Because surprisingly, some of rocketry’s greatest hits have not changed. They would recognize immediately a lot of what we do today and it’s exactly what they pioneered back in the ’60s. But a few things have changed. The use of carbon composites is very different today. We can build very sophisticated … You saw our carbon tape laying machine that builds the giant fairings and we can build these incredibly light, very stiff fairing structures out of carbon composite material that they could not have dreamed of. The efficiency, the structural efficiency of that material is so high compared to any metallic material you might use or anything else. So that’s one.
Aluminum-lithium and the ability to friction stir weld aluminum-lithium. Do you remember the friction stir welding that I showed you?
Lex Fridman
Yes. It’s incredible.
Yes. It’s incredible.
Jeff Bezos
This is a remarkable technology that’s invented decades ago, but has become very practical over just the last couple of decades. And instead of using heat to weld two pieces of metal together, it literally stirs the two pieces. There’s a pin that rotates at a certain rate and you put that pin between the two plates of metal that you want to weld together and then you move it at a very precise speed. And instead of heating the material, it heats it a little bit because of friction, but not very much, you can literally immediately after welding with stir friction welding, you can touch the material and it’s just barely warm. It literally stirs the molecules together. It’s quite extraordinary.
This is a remarkable technology that’s invented decades ago, but has become very practical over just the last couple of decades. And instead of using heat to weld two pieces of metal together, it literally stirs the two pieces. There’s a pin that rotates at a certain rate and you put that pin between the two plates of metal that you want to weld together and then you move it at a very precise speed. And instead of heating the material, it heats it a little bit because of friction, but not very much, you can literally immediately after welding with stir friction welding, you can touch the material and it’s just barely warm. It literally stirs the molecules together. It’s quite extraordinary.
Lex Fridman
Relatively low temperature and I guess high temperatures, that makes it a weak point.
Relatively low temperature and I guess high temperatures, that makes it a weak point.
Jeff Bezos
Exactly. So …
Exactly. So …
Lex Fridman
Amazing.
Amazing.
Jeff Bezos
… with traditional welding techniques, you whatever the underlying strength characteristics of the material are, you end up with weak regions where you weld. And with friction stir welding, the welds are just as strong as the bulk material. So it really allows you … Let’s say you’re building a tank that you’re going to pressurize a large liquid natural gas tank for our booster stage, for example, if you are welding that with traditional methods, you have to size those weld lands, the thickness of those pieces with that knockdown for whatever damage you’re doing with the weld and that’s going to add a lot of weight to that tank.
… with traditional welding techniques, you whatever the underlying strength characteristics of the material are, you end up with weak regions where you weld. And with friction stir welding, the welds are just as strong as the bulk material. So it really allows you … Let’s say you’re building a tank that you’re going to pressurize a large liquid natural gas tank for our booster stage, for example, if you are welding that with traditional methods, you have to size those weld lands, the thickness of those pieces with that knockdown for whatever damage you’re doing with the weld and that’s going to add a lot of weight to that tank.
Lex Fridman
Even just looking at the fairings, the result of that, the complex shape that it takes and what it’s supposed to do is incredible because some people don’t know, it’s on top of the rock, it’s going to fall apart. That’s its task, but it has to stay strong sometimes and then disappear when it needs to …
Even just looking at the fairings, the result of that, the complex shape that it takes and what it’s supposed to do is incredible because some people don’t know, it’s on top of the rock, it’s going to fall apart. That’s its task, but it has to stay strong sometimes and then disappear when it needs to …
Jeff Bezos
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
… which is a very difficult task.
… which is a very difficult task.
Jeff Bezos
Yes. When you need something that needs to have 100% integrity until it needs to have 0% integrity, it needs to stay attached until it’s ready to go away, and then when it goes away, it has to go away completely. You use explosive charges for that and so it’s a very robust way of separating structure when you need to.
Yes. When you need something that needs to have 100% integrity until it needs to have 0% integrity, it needs to stay attached until it’s ready to go away, and then when it goes away, it has to go away completely. You use explosive charges for that and so it’s a very robust way of separating structure when you need to.
Lex Fridman
Exploding.
Exploding.
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, little tiny bits of explosive material and it will sever the whole connection.
Yeah, little tiny bits of explosive material and it will sever the whole connection.
Lex Fridman
So if you want to go from 100% structural integrity to zero as fast as possible is explosives.
So if you want to go from 100% structural integrity to zero as fast as possible is explosives.
Jeff Bezos
Use explosives.
Use explosives.
Lex Fridman
The entirety of this thing is so badass. Okay, so we’re back to the two stages. So the first stage is reusable.
The entirety of this thing is so badass. Okay, so we’re back to the two stages. So the first stage is reusable.
Jeff Bezos
Yeah. Second stage is expendable. Second stage is liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen. So we get take advantage of the higher specific impulse. The first stage lands down range on a landing platform in the ocean, comes back for maintenance and get ready to do the next mission.
Yeah. Second stage is expendable. Second stage is liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen. So we get take advantage of the higher specific impulse. The first stage lands down range on a landing platform in the ocean, comes back for maintenance and get ready to do the next mission.
Lex Fridman
There’s a million questions, but also is there a path towards reusability for the second stage?
There’s a million questions, but also is there a path towards reusability for the second stage?
Jeff Bezos
There is and we know how to do that. Right now, we’re going to work on manufacturing that second stage to make it as inexpensive as possible, two paths for a second stage, make it reusable or work really hard to make it inexpensive, so you can afford to expend it. And that trade is actually not obvious which one is better.
There is and we know how to do that. Right now, we’re going to work on manufacturing that second stage to make it as inexpensive as possible, two paths for a second stage, make it reusable or work really hard to make it inexpensive, so you can afford to expend it. And that trade is actually not obvious which one is better.
Lex Fridman
Even in terms of cost, like time, cost-
Even in terms of cost, like time, cost-
Jeff Bezos
Even in terms of … And I’m talking about cost. Space, getting into orbit is a solved problem. We solved it back in the ’50s and ’60s.
Even in terms of … And I’m talking about cost. Space, getting into orbit is a solved problem. We solved it back in the ’50s and ’60s.
Lex Fridman
You’re making it sound easy.
You’re making it sound easy.
Jeff Bezos
The only interesting problem is dramatically reducing the cost of access to orbit, which is, if you can do that, you open up a bunch of new endeavors that lots of start-up companies everybody else can do. One of our missions is to be part of this industry and lower the cost to orbit, so that there can be a renaissance, a golden age of people doing all kinds of interesting things in space.
The only interesting problem is dramatically reducing the cost of access to orbit, which is, if you can do that, you open up a bunch of new endeavors that lots of start-up companies everybody else can do. One of our missions is to be part of this industry and lower the cost to orbit, so that there can be a renaissance, a golden age of people doing all kinds of interesting things in space.
Lex Fridman
I like how you said getting to orbit is a solved problem. It’s just the only interesting thing is reducing the cost. You know how you can describe every single problem facing human civilization that way? The physicists would say, “Everything is a solved problem. We’ve solved everything. The rest is just,” what did Rutherford said, “that it’s just stamp collecting. It’s just the details.” Some of the greatest innovations and inventions and brilliance is in that cost reduction stage, right? And you’ve had a long career of cost reduction.
I like how you said getting to orbit is a solved problem. It’s just the only interesting thing is reducing the cost. You know how you can describe every single problem facing human civilization that way? The physicists would say, “Everything is a solved problem. We’ve solved everything. The rest is just,” what did Rutherford said, “that it’s just stamp collecting. It’s just the details.” Some of the greatest innovations and inventions and brilliance is in that cost reduction stage, right? And you’ve had a long career of cost reduction.
Jeff Bezos
For sure. What does cost reduction really mean? It means inventing a better way.
For sure. What does cost reduction really mean? It means inventing a better way.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Jeff Bezos
Right? And when you invent a better way, you make the whole world richer. So whatever it was, I don’t know how many thousands of years ago, somebody invented the plow. And when they invented the plow, they made the whole world richer because they made farming less expensive. And so it is a big deal to invent better ways. That’s how the world gets richer.
Right? And when you invent a better way, you make the whole world richer. So whatever it was, I don’t know how many thousands of years ago, somebody invented the plow. And when they invented the plow, they made the whole world richer because they made farming less expensive. And so it is a big deal to invent better ways. That’s how the world gets richer.
Lex Fridman
So what are some of the biggest challenges on the manufacturing side, on the engineering side that you’re facing in working to get to the first launch of New Glenn?
So what are some of the biggest challenges on the manufacturing side, on the engineering side that you’re facing in working to get to the first launch of New Glenn?
Jeff Bezos
The first launch is one thing and we’ll do that in 2024, coming up in this coming year. The real thing that’s the bigger challenge is making sure that our factory is efficiently manufacturing at rate. So rate production, so consider if you want to launch New Glenn 24 times a year, you need to manufacture a upper stage since they’re expendable, twice a month. You need to do one every two weeks. So you need to have all of your manufacturing facilities and processes and inspection techniques and acceptance tests and everything operating at rate. And rate manufacturing is at least as difficult as designing the vehicle in the first place and the same thing. So every upper stage has two BE-3U engines.
The first launch is one thing and we’ll do that in 2024, coming up in this coming year. The real thing that’s the bigger challenge is making sure that our factory is efficiently manufacturing at rate. So rate production, so consider if you want to launch New Glenn 24 times a year, you need to manufacture a upper stage since they’re expendable, twice a month. You need to do one every two weeks. So you need to have all of your manufacturing facilities and processes and inspection techniques and acceptance tests and everything operating at rate. And rate manufacturing is at least as difficult as designing the vehicle in the first place and the same thing. So every upper stage has two BE-3U engines.
So those engines, if you’re going to launch the vehicle twice a month, you need four engines a month. So you need an engine every week. That engine needs to be being produced at rate and there’s all of the things that you need to do that, all the right machine tools, all the right fixtures, the right people, process, etcetera. So it’s one thing to build a first article, right? To launch New Glenn for the first time, you need to produce a first article, but that’s not the hard part. The hard part is everything that’s going on behind the scenes to build a factory that can produce New Glenns at rate.
Lex Fridman
So the first one is produced in a way that enables the production of the second and third and the fourth and the fifth and sixth-
So the first one is produced in a way that enables the production of the second and third and the fourth and the fifth and sixth-
Jeff Bezos
You could think of the first article as pushing, it pushes all of the rate manufacturing technology along. In other words, it’s the test article in a way that’s testing out your manufacturing technologies.
You could think of the first article as pushing, it pushes all of the rate manufacturing technology along. In other words, it’s the test article in a way that’s testing out your manufacturing technologies.
Lex Fridman
The manufacturing is the big challenge.
The manufacturing is the big challenge.
Jeff Bezos
Yes. I don’t want to make it sound like any of it is easy. The people who are designing the engines and all this, all of this is hard for sure, but the challenge right now is driving really hard to get to is to get to rate manufacturing and to do that in an efficient way, again back to our cost point. If you get to rate manufacturing in an inefficient way, you haven’t really solved the cost problem and maybe you haven’t really moved the state of the art forward. All this has to be about moving this state of the art forward. There are easier businesses to do. I always tell people, “Look, if you are trying to make money, start a salty snack food company or something.”
Yes. I don’t want to make it sound like any of it is easy. The people who are designing the engines and all this, all of this is hard for sure, but the challenge right now is driving really hard to get to is to get to rate manufacturing and to do that in an efficient way, again back to our cost point. If you get to rate manufacturing in an inefficient way, you haven’t really solved the cost problem and maybe you haven’t really moved the state of the art forward. All this has to be about moving this state of the art forward. There are easier businesses to do. I always tell people, “Look, if you are trying to make money, start a salty snack food company or something.”
Lex Fridman
I’m going to write that idea down.
I’m going to write that idea down.
Jeff Bezos
Make the Lex Fridman Potato Chips.
Make the Lex Fridman Potato Chips.
Lex Fridman
Right. Don’t say it. People are going to steal it. But yeah, it’s hard.
Right. Don’t say it. People are going to steal it. But yeah, it’s hard.
Jeff Bezos
Do you see what I’m saying? There’s nothing easy about this business, but it’s its own reward. It’s fascinating, it’s worthwhile, it’s meaningful. I don’t want to pick on salty snack food companies, but I think it’s less meaningful. At the end of the day, you’re not going to have accomplished something amazing …
Do you see what I’m saying? There’s nothing easy about this business, but it’s its own reward. It’s fascinating, it’s worthwhile, it’s meaningful. I don’t want to pick on salty snack food companies, but I think it’s less meaningful. At the end of the day, you’re not going to have accomplished something amazing …
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s-
Yeah, there’s-
Jeff Bezos
… even if you do make a lot of money on it.
… even if you do make a lot of money on it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s something fundamentally different about the “business of space exploration.”
Yeah, there’s something fundamentally different about the “business of space exploration.”
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, for sure.
Yeah, for sure.
Lex Fridman
It’s a grand project of humanity.
It’s a grand project of humanity.
Jeff Bezos
Yes, it’s one of humanity’s grand challenges, and especially as you look at going to the moon and going to Mars and building giant O’Neill colonies and unlocking all the things. I won’t live long enough to see the fruits of this, but the fruits of this come from building a road to space, getting the infrastructure. I’ll give you an analogy. When I started Amazon, I didn’t have to develop a payment system. It already existed. It was called the credit card. I didn’t have to develop a transportation system to deliver the packages. It already existed. It was called the Postal Service and Royal Mail and Deutsche Post and so on. So all this heavy lifting infrastructure was already in place and I could stand on its shoulders. And that’s why, when you look at the internet …
Yes, it’s one of humanity’s grand challenges, and especially as you look at going to the moon and going to Mars and building giant O’Neill colonies and unlocking all the things. I won’t live long enough to see the fruits of this, but the fruits of this come from building a road to space, getting the infrastructure. I’ll give you an analogy. When I started Amazon, I didn’t have to develop a payment system. It already existed. It was called the credit card. I didn’t have to develop a transportation system to deliver the packages. It already existed. It was called the Postal Service and Royal Mail and Deutsche Post and so on. So all this heavy lifting infrastructure was already in place and I could stand on its shoulders. And that’s why, when you look at the internet …
And by the way, another giant piece of infrastructure that was around in the early, I’m taking you back to 1994, people were using dial-up modems and it was piggybacking on top of the long distance phone network. That’s how the internet … That’s how people were accessing servers and so on. And again, if that hadn’t existed, it would’ve been hundreds of billions of CapEx to put that out there. No startup company could have done that. And so the problem you see, if you look at the dynamism in the internet space over the last 20 years, it’s because you see two kids in a dorm room could start an internet company that could be successful and do amazing things because they didn’t have to build heavy infrastructure. It was already there. And that’s what I want to do. I take my Amazon winnings and use that to build heavy infrastructure so that the next generation, the generation that’s my children and their children, those generations can then use that heavy infrastructure, then there’ll be space entrepreneurs who start in their dorm room. That will be a marker of success when you can have a really valuable space company started in a dorm room, then we know that we’ve built enough infrastructure so that ingenuity and imagination can really be unleashed. I find that very exciting.
Lex Fridman
They will, of course, as kids do, take all of this hard infrastructure ability for granted.
They will, of course, as kids do, take all of this hard infrastructure ability for granted.
Jeff Bezos
Of course.
Of course.
Lex Fridman
That entrepreneurial spirit.
That entrepreneurial spirit.
Jeff Bezos
That’s an inventor’s greatest dream, is that their inventions are so successful that they are one day taken for granted. Nobody thinks of Amazon as an invention anymore. Nobody thinks of customer reviews as an invention. We pioneered customer reviews, but now they’re so commonplace. Same thing with one-click shopping and so on, but that’s a compliment. You invent something that’s so used, so beneficially used by so many people that they take it for granted.
That’s an inventor’s greatest dream, is that their inventions are so successful that they are one day taken for granted. Nobody thinks of Amazon as an invention anymore. Nobody thinks of customer reviews as an invention. We pioneered customer reviews, but now they’re so commonplace. Same thing with one-click shopping and so on, but that’s a compliment. You invent something that’s so used, so beneficially used by so many people that they take it for granted.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know about nobody. Every time I use Amazon, I’m still amazed, “How does this work, the logistics, the Wazuh?”
I don’t know about nobody. Every time I use Amazon, I’m still amazed, “How does this work, the logistics, the Wazuh?”
Jeff Bezos
Well, that proves you’re a very curious explorer.
Well, that proves you’re a very curious explorer.
Lex Fridman
All right, all right, back to rocket. Timeline, you said 2024. As it stands now, are both the first test launch and the launch of ESCAPADE explorers to Mars still possible in 2024?
All right, all right, back to rocket. Timeline, you said 2024. As it stands now, are both the first test launch and the launch of ESCAPADE explorers to Mars still possible in 2024?
Jeff Bezos
In 2024?
In 2024?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, I think so. For sure, the first launch and then we’ll see if ESCAPADE goes on that or not. I think that the first launch for sure and I hope ESCAPADE too.
Yeah, I think so. For sure, the first launch and then we’ll see if ESCAPADE goes on that or not. I think that the first launch for sure and I hope ESCAPADE too.
Lex Fridman
Hope-
Hope-
Jeff Bezos
Well, I just don’t know which mission it’s actually going to be slated on. So we also have other things that might go on that first mission.
Well, I just don’t know which mission it’s actually going to be slated on. So we also have other things that might go on that first mission.
Lex Fridman
Oh, I got it. But you’re optimistic that the launches will still-
Oh, I got it. But you’re optimistic that the launches will still-
Jeff Bezos
Oh, the first launch. I’m very optimistic that the first launch of New Glenn will be in 2024 and I’m just not 100% certain what payload will be on that first launch.
Oh, the first launch. I’m very optimistic that the first launch of New Glenn will be in 2024 and I’m just not 100% certain what payload will be on that first launch.
Lex Fridman
Are you nervous about it?
Are you nervous about it?
Jeff Bezos
Are you kidding? I’m extremely nervous about it.
Are you kidding? I’m extremely nervous about it.
Lex Fridman
Oh, man.
Oh, man.
Jeff Bezos
100%. Every launch I go to, for New Shepherd, for other vehicles too, I’m always nervous for these launches. But yes, for sure, a first launch, to have no nervous about that would be some sign of derangement, I think so.
100%. Every launch I go to, for New Shepherd, for other vehicles too, I’m always nervous for these launches. But yes, for sure, a first launch, to have no nervous about that would be some sign of derangement, I think so.
Lex Fridman
Well, I got to visit the launch, man. It’s pretty … I mean, it’s epic.
Well, I got to visit the launch, man. It’s pretty … I mean, it’s epic.
Jeff Bezos
We have done a tremendous amount of ground testing, a tremendous amount of simulation. So a lot of the problems that we might find in flight have been resolved, but there are some problems you can only find in flight. So cross your fingers. I guarantee you you’ll have fun watching it no matter what happens.
We have done a tremendous amount of ground testing, a tremendous amount of simulation. So a lot of the problems that we might find in flight have been resolved, but there are some problems you can only find in flight. So cross your fingers. I guarantee you you’ll have fun watching it no matter what happens.
Lex Fridman
100%. When the thing is fully assembled, it comes up-
100%. When the thing is fully assembled, it comes up-
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, the transporter erector.
Yeah, the transporter erector.
Lex Fridman
It’s the erector, yeah.
It’s the erector, yeah.
Jeff Bezos
Just the transporter erector for a rocket of this scale is extraordinary.
Just the transporter erector for a rocket of this scale is extraordinary.
Lex Fridman
That’s an incredible machine.
That’s an incredible machine.
Jeff Bezos
The vehicle travels out horizontally and then comes up and-
The vehicle travels out horizontally and then comes up and-
Lex Fridman
Over a few hours?
Over a few hours?
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, it’s a beautiful thing to watch.
Yeah, it’s a beautiful thing to watch.
Lex Fridman
Speaking of which, if that makes you nervous, I don’t know if you remember, but you were aboard New Shepard on its first crewed flight. How was that experience? Were you terrified then?
Speaking of which, if that makes you nervous, I don’t know if you remember, but you were aboard New Shepard on its first crewed flight. How was that experience? Were you terrified then?
Jeff Bezos
Strangely, I wasn’t.
Strangely, I wasn’t.
Lex Fridman
When you ride the rocket, wasn’t nerve wracking? Okay.
When you ride the rocket, wasn’t nerve wracking? Okay.
Jeff Bezos
It’s true. I’ve watched other people riding the rocket and I’m more nervous than when I was inside the rocket myself. It was a difficult conversation to have with my mother when I told her I was going to go on the first one. And not only was I going to go, but I was going to bring my brother too. This is a tough conversation to have with a mom.
It’s true. I’ve watched other people riding the rocket and I’m more nervous than when I was inside the rocket myself. It was a difficult conversation to have with my mother when I told her I was going to go on the first one. And not only was I going to go, but I was going to bring my brother too. This is a tough conversation to have with a mom.
Lex Fridman
There’s a long pause when you told her.
There’s a long pause when you told her.
Jeff Bezos
She’s like, “Both of you?” It was an incredible experience and we were laughing inside the capsule and we’re not nervous. The people on the ground were very nervous for us. It was actually one of the most emotionally powerful parts of the experience happened even before the flight. At 4:30 in the morning, brother and I are getting ready to go to the launch site and Lauren is going to take us there in her helicopter and we’re getting ready to leave. And we go outside, outside the ranch house there in West Texas where the launch facility is and all of our family, my kids and my brother’s kids and our parents and close friends are assembled there and they’re saying goodbye to us, but they’re saying, “Maybe they think they’re saying goodbye to us forever,” and we might not have felt that way, but it was obvious from their faces how nervous they were that they felt that way. And it was powerful because it allowed us to see … It was almost like a attending year old memorial service or something like you could feel how loved you were in that moment and it was really amazing.
She’s like, “Both of you?” It was an incredible experience and we were laughing inside the capsule and we’re not nervous. The people on the ground were very nervous for us. It was actually one of the most emotionally powerful parts of the experience happened even before the flight. At 4:30 in the morning, brother and I are getting ready to go to the launch site and Lauren is going to take us there in her helicopter and we’re getting ready to leave. And we go outside, outside the ranch house there in West Texas where the launch facility is and all of our family, my kids and my brother’s kids and our parents and close friends are assembled there and they’re saying goodbye to us, but they’re saying, “Maybe they think they’re saying goodbye to us forever,” and we might not have felt that way, but it was obvious from their faces how nervous they were that they felt that way. And it was powerful because it allowed us to see … It was almost like a attending year old memorial service or something like you could feel how loved you were in that moment and it was really amazing.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and there’s just a epic nature to it too.
Yeah, and there’s just a epic nature to it too.
Jeff Bezos
The ascent, the floating in zero gravity. I’ll tell you something very interesting, zero gravity feels very natural. I don’t know if it’s because it’s like return to the womb or-
The ascent, the floating in zero gravity. I’ll tell you something very interesting, zero gravity feels very natural. I don’t know if it’s because it’s like return to the womb or-
Lex Fridman
You just confirmed you’re an alien, but that’s all. I think that’s what you just said.
You just confirmed you’re an alien, but that’s all. I think that’s what you just said.
Jeff Bezos
It feels so natural to be in zero G. It was really interesting. And then what people talk about the overview effect and seeing Earth from space, I had that feeling very powerfully. I think everyone did. You see how fragile the Earth is. If you’re not an environmentalist, it will make you one. The great Jim Lovell quote, he looked back at the Earth from space and he said he realized, “You don’t go to heaven when you die. You go to heaven when you’re born.” That’s the feeling that people get when they’re in space. You see all this blackness, all this nothingness and there’s one gem of life and it’s Earth.
It feels so natural to be in zero G. It was really interesting. And then what people talk about the overview effect and seeing Earth from space, I had that feeling very powerfully. I think everyone did. You see how fragile the Earth is. If you’re not an environmentalist, it will make you one. The great Jim Lovell quote, he looked back at the Earth from space and he said he realized, “You don’t go to heaven when you die. You go to heaven when you’re born.” That’s the feeling that people get when they’re in space. You see all this blackness, all this nothingness and there’s one gem of life and it’s Earth.
Lex Fridman
It is a gem. You’ve talked a lot about decision making throughout your time with Amazon. What was that decision like to be the first to ride New Shepard? Just before you talk to your mom, the pros and cons? Actually, as one human being, as a leader of a company on all fronts, what was that decision making like?
It is a gem. You’ve talked a lot about decision making throughout your time with Amazon. What was that decision like to be the first to ride New Shepard? Just before you talk to your mom, the pros and cons? Actually, as one human being, as a leader of a company on all fronts, what was that decision making like?
Jeff Bezos
I decided that … First of all, I knew the vehicle extremely well. I know the team who built it. I know the vehicle. I’m very comfortable with the escape system. We put as much effort into the escape system on that vehicle as we put into all the rest of the vehicle combined. It’s one of the hardest pieces of engineering in the entire New Shepard architecture.
I decided that … First of all, I knew the vehicle extremely well. I know the team who built it. I know the vehicle. I’m very comfortable with the escape system. We put as much effort into the escape system on that vehicle as we put into all the rest of the vehicle combined. It’s one of the hardest pieces of engineering in the entire New Shepard architecture.
Lex Fridman
Can you actually describe what do you mean by escape system? What’s involved?
Can you actually describe what do you mean by escape system? What’s involved?
Jeff Bezos
We have a solid rocket motor in the base of the crew capsule, so that if anything goes wrong on ascent, while the main rocket engine is firing, we can ignite this solid rocket motor in the base of the crew capsule and escape from the booster. It’s a very challenging system to build, design, validate, test, all of these things. It is the reason that I am comfortable letting anyone go on New Shepard. So the booster is as safe and reliable as we can make it, but we are harnessing … Whenever you’re talking about rocket engines, I don’t care what rocket engine you’re talking about, you’re harnessing such vast power in such a small compact geometric space. The power density is so enormous that it is impossible to ever be sure that nothing will go wrong.
We have a solid rocket motor in the base of the crew capsule, so that if anything goes wrong on ascent, while the main rocket engine is firing, we can ignite this solid rocket motor in the base of the crew capsule and escape from the booster. It’s a very challenging system to build, design, validate, test, all of these things. It is the reason that I am comfortable letting anyone go on New Shepard. So the booster is as safe and reliable as we can make it, but we are harnessing … Whenever you’re talking about rocket engines, I don’t care what rocket engine you’re talking about, you’re harnessing such vast power in such a small compact geometric space. The power density is so enormous that it is impossible to ever be sure that nothing will go wrong.
And so the only way to improve safety is to have an escape system. And historically, human-rated rockets have had escape systems. Only the space shuttle did not, but Apollo had one. All of the previous Gemini, etcetera, they all had escape systems. And we have on New Shepard an unusual escape … Most escape systems are towers. We have a pusher escape system. So the solid rocket motor is actually embedded in the base of the crew capsule and it pushes and it’s reusable in the sense that, if we don’t use it, so if we have a nominal mission, we land with it. The tower systems have to be ejected at a certain point in the mission and so they get wasted even in a nominal mission.
And so again, costs really matters on these things, so we figured out how to have the escape system be a reusable. In the event that it’s not used, it can reuse it and have it be a pusher system. It’s a very sophisticated thing. So I knew these things. You asked me about my decision to go and so I know the vehicle very well, I know the people who designed it, I have great trust in them and in the engineering that we did. And I thought to myself, “Look, if I am not ready to go, then I wouldn’t want anyone to go.” A tourism vehicle has to be designed, in my view, to be as safe as one can make it. You can’t make it perfectly safe. It’s impossible, but you have … People will do things. People take risk. They climb mountains, they skydive, they do deep underwater scuba diving and so on. People are okay taking risk. You can’t eliminate the risk, but it is something, because it’s a tourism vehicle, you have to do your utmost to eliminate those risks.
And I felt very good about the system. I think it’s one of the reasons I was so calm inside and maybe others weren’t as calm. They didn’t know as much about it as I did.
Lex Fridman
Who was in charge of engaging the escape system? Did you have-
Who was in charge of engaging the escape system? Did you have-
Jeff Bezos
It’s automated. The escape system is …
It’s automated. The escape system is …
Lex Fridman
Okay. I was visualizing-
Okay. I was visualizing-
Jeff Bezos
… completely automated. Automated is better because it can react so much faster.
… completely automated. Automated is better because it can react so much faster.
Lex Fridman
Okay. So yeah, for tourism rockets, safety is a huge, huge, huge priority for space exploration also, but a delta less.
Okay. So yeah, for tourism rockets, safety is a huge, huge, huge priority for space exploration also, but a delta less.
Jeff Bezos
Yes. I think if you’re doing … There are human activities where we tolerate more risk if you’re saving somebody’s life, if you are engaging in real exploration. These are things where I personally think we would accept more risk in part because you have to.
Yes. I think if you’re doing … There are human activities where we tolerate more risk if you’re saving somebody’s life, if you are engaging in real exploration. These are things where I personally think we would accept more risk in part because you have to.
Lex Fridman
Is there a part of you that’s frustrated by the rate of progress in Blue Origin?
Is there a part of you that’s frustrated by the rate of progress in Blue Origin?
Jeff Bezos
Blue Origin needs to be much faster. And it’s one of the reasons that I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago, “I wanted to come in and Blue Origin needs me right now.” And so I had always … When I was the CEO of Amazon, my point of view on this is, “If I’m the CEO of a publicly traded company, it’s going to get my full attention.” And it’s just how I think about things. It was very important to me. I felt I had an obligation to all the stakeholders at Amazon to do that. And so having turned the CEO, I’m still the executive chair there, but I turned the CEO role over, and the primary reason I did that is that I could spend time on Blue Origin, adding some energy, some sense of urgency, “We need to move much faster and we’re going to.”
Blue Origin needs to be much faster. And it’s one of the reasons that I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago, “I wanted to come in and Blue Origin needs me right now.” And so I had always … When I was the CEO of Amazon, my point of view on this is, “If I’m the CEO of a publicly traded company, it’s going to get my full attention.” And it’s just how I think about things. It was very important to me. I felt I had an obligation to all the stakeholders at Amazon to do that. And so having turned the CEO, I’m still the executive chair there, but I turned the CEO role over, and the primary reason I did that is that I could spend time on Blue Origin, adding some energy, some sense of urgency, “We need to move much faster and we’re going to.”
Lex Fridman
What are the ways to speed it up? You’ve talked a lot of different ways at Amazon removing barriers for progress or distributing, making everybody autonomous and self-reliant, all those kinds of things. Is that apply at Blue Origin or is-
What are the ways to speed it up? You’ve talked a lot of different ways at Amazon removing barriers for progress or distributing, making everybody autonomous and self-reliant, all those kinds of things. Is that apply at Blue Origin or is-
Jeff Bezos
It does apply. I’m leading this directly. We’re going to become the world’s most decisive company across any industry. And so at Amazon, for ever since the beginning, I said, “We’re going to become the world’s most customer-obsessed company.” And no matter the industry, one day, people are going to come to Amazon from the healthcare industry and want to know, “How are you so customer-obsessed? How do you not just pay lip service that, but actually do that?” All different industries should come want to study us to see how we accomplish that. And the analogous thing at Blue Origin and will help us move faster is we’re going to become the world’s most decisive company. We’re going to get really good at taking appropriate technology risk and making those decisions quickly, being bold on those things and having the right culture that supports that.
It does apply. I’m leading this directly. We’re going to become the world’s most decisive company across any industry. And so at Amazon, for ever since the beginning, I said, “We’re going to become the world’s most customer-obsessed company.” And no matter the industry, one day, people are going to come to Amazon from the healthcare industry and want to know, “How are you so customer-obsessed? How do you not just pay lip service that, but actually do that?” All different industries should come want to study us to see how we accomplish that. And the analogous thing at Blue Origin and will help us move faster is we’re going to become the world’s most decisive company. We’re going to get really good at taking appropriate technology risk and making those decisions quickly, being bold on those things and having the right culture that supports that.
You need people to be ambitious, technically ambitious, “If there are five ways to do something, we’ll study them, but let’s study them very quickly and make a decision.” We can always change our mind. Changing your mind, I talk about one-way doors and two-way doors, most decisions are two-way doors.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain that because I love that metaphor?
Can you explain that because I love that metaphor?
Jeff Bezos
If you make the wrong decision, if it’s a two-way door decision, you pick a door, you walk out and you spend a little time there. It turns out to be the wrong decision, you can come back in and pick another door. Some decisions are so consequential and so important and so hard to reverse that they really are one-way door decisions. You go in that door, you’re not coming back. And those decisions have to be made very deliberately, very carefully. If you can think of yet another way to analyze the decision, you should slow down and do that. So when I was CEO of Amazon, I often found myself in the position of being the chief slow down officer because somebody would be bringing me a one-way door decision and I would say, “Okay, I can think of three more ways to analyze that. So let’s go do that because we are not going to be able to reverse this one easily. Maybe you can reverse it if it’s going to be very costly and very time-consuming. We really have to get this one right from the beginning.”
If you make the wrong decision, if it’s a two-way door decision, you pick a door, you walk out and you spend a little time there. It turns out to be the wrong decision, you can come back in and pick another door. Some decisions are so consequential and so important and so hard to reverse that they really are one-way door decisions. You go in that door, you’re not coming back. And those decisions have to be made very deliberately, very carefully. If you can think of yet another way to analyze the decision, you should slow down and do that. So when I was CEO of Amazon, I often found myself in the position of being the chief slow down officer because somebody would be bringing me a one-way door decision and I would say, “Okay, I can think of three more ways to analyze that. So let’s go do that because we are not going to be able to reverse this one easily. Maybe you can reverse it if it’s going to be very costly and very time-consuming. We really have to get this one right from the beginning.”
And what happens, unfortunately, in companies, what can happen, is that you have a one-size-fits-all decision-making process where you end up using the heavyweight process on all decisions …
Lex Fridman
For everything, yeah.
For everything, yeah.
Jeff Bezos
… Including the lightweight ones, the two-way door decisions. Two-way door decisions should mostly be made by single individuals or by very small teams deep in the organization. And one-way door decisions are the irreversible ones. Those are the ones that should be elevated up to the senior-most executives who should slow them down and make sure that the right thing is being done.
… Including the lightweight ones, the two-way door decisions. Two-way door decisions should mostly be made by single individuals or by very small teams deep in the organization. And one-way door decisions are the irreversible ones. Those are the ones that should be elevated up to the senior-most executives who should slow them down and make sure that the right thing is being done.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, part of the skill here is to know the difference between one-way and two-way. I think you mentioned …
Yeah, part of the skill here is to know the difference between one-way and two-way. I think you mentioned …
Jeff Bezos
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
I think you mentioned Amazon Prime, the decision to create Amazon Prime as a one-way door. It’s unclear if it is or not, but it probably is and it’s a really big risk to go there.
I think you mentioned Amazon Prime, the decision to create Amazon Prime as a one-way door. It’s unclear if it is or not, but it probably is and it’s a really big risk to go there.
Jeff Bezos
There are a bunch of decisions like that are … Changing the decision is going to be very, very complicated. Some of them are technical decisions too because some technical decisions are like quick-drying cement. Once you make them, it gets really hard. Choosing which propellants to use in a vehicle, selecting LNG for the booster stage and selecting hydrogen for the upper stage, that has turned out to be a very good decision. But if you changed your mind, that would be a very big setback. Do you see what I’m saying?
There are a bunch of decisions like that are … Changing the decision is going to be very, very complicated. Some of them are technical decisions too because some technical decisions are like quick-drying cement. Once you make them, it gets really hard. Choosing which propellants to use in a vehicle, selecting LNG for the booster stage and selecting hydrogen for the upper stage, that has turned out to be a very good decision. But if you changed your mind, that would be a very big setback. Do you see what I’m saying?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Jeff Bezos
So that’s the kind of decision you scrutinize very, very carefully. Other things just aren’t like that. Most decisions are not that way. Most decisions should be made by single individuals and done quickly in the full understanding that you can always change your mind.
So that’s the kind of decision you scrutinize very, very carefully. Other things just aren’t like that. Most decisions are not that way. Most decisions should be made by single individuals and done quickly in the full understanding that you can always change your mind.
Lex Fridman
One of the things I really liked, perhaps it’s not a two-way door decisions, is, “I disagree and commit,” phrase. So somebody brings up an idea to you, if it’s a two-way door, you state that you don’t understand enough to agree, but you still back them. I’d love for you to explain that-
One of the things I really liked, perhaps it’s not a two-way door decisions, is, “I disagree and commit,” phrase. So somebody brings up an idea to you, if it’s a two-way door, you state that you don’t understand enough to agree, but you still back them. I’d love for you to explain that-
Jeff Bezos
Well, yes, disagree and commit is a really important principle that saves a lot of arguing. So-
Well, yes, disagree and commit is a really important principle that saves a lot of arguing. So-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I’m going to use that in my personal life, “I disagree, but commit.”
Yeah, I’m going to use that in my personal life, “I disagree, but commit.”
Jeff Bezos
It’s very common in any endeavor in life, in business and anybody where you have teammates, you have a teammate and the two of you disagree. At some point, you have to make a decision. And in companies, we tend to organize hierarchically. Whoever’s the more senior person ultimately gets to make the decision. So ultimately, the CEO gets to make that decision. And the CEO may not always make the decision that they agree with. So I would be the one who would disagree and commit. One of my direct reports would very much want to do something in a particular way. I would think it was a bad idea. I would explain my point of view. They would say, ” Jeff, I think you’re wrong and here’s why,” and we would go back and forth.
It’s very common in any endeavor in life, in business and anybody where you have teammates, you have a teammate and the two of you disagree. At some point, you have to make a decision. And in companies, we tend to organize hierarchically. Whoever’s the more senior person ultimately gets to make the decision. So ultimately, the CEO gets to make that decision. And the CEO may not always make the decision that they agree with. So I would be the one who would disagree and commit. One of my direct reports would very much want to do something in a particular way. I would think it was a bad idea. I would explain my point of view. They would say, ” Jeff, I think you’re wrong and here’s why,” and we would go back and forth.
And I would often say, “You know what? I don’t think you’re right, but I’m going to gamble with you and you’re closer to the ground truth than I am. I’d known you for 20 years. You have great judgment. I don’t know that I’m right either. Not really, not for sure. All these decisions are complicated. Let’s do it your way.” But at least then you’ve made a decision and I’m agreeing to commit to that decision. So I’m not going to be second guessing it. I’m not going to be sniping at it. I’m not going to be saying, “I told you so.” I’m going to try actively to help make sure it works. That’s a really important teammate behavior.
There’s so many ways that dispute resolution is a really interesting thing on teams. And there are so many ways when two people disagree about something, even … I’m assuming the case for everybody is well-intentioned. They just have a very different opinion about what the right decision is. And in our society and inside companies, we have a bunch of mechanisms that we use to resolve these kinds of disputes. A lot of them are, I think, really bad. So an example of a really bad way of coming to agreement is compromise. So compromise, we’re in a room here and I could say, “Lex, how tall do you think this ceiling is?”
Jeff Bezos
I’m here and I could say, “Lex, how tall do you think this ceiling is?” And you’d be like, “I don’t know, Jeff, maybe 12 feet tall.” And I would say, “I think it’s 11 feet tall.” And then we’d say, “You know what? Let’s just call it 11 and a half feet.” That’s compromise, instead of. The right thing to do is to get a tape measure or figure out some way of actually measuring, but think getting that tape measure and figure out how to get it to the top of the ceiling and all these things, that requires energy. Compromise, the advantage of compromise as a resolution mechanism is that it’s low energy, but it doesn’t lead to truth. And so in things like the height of the ceiling where truth is a noble thing, you shouldn’t allow compromise to be used when you can know the truth.
I’m here and I could say, “Lex, how tall do you think this ceiling is?” And you’d be like, “I don’t know, Jeff, maybe 12 feet tall.” And I would say, “I think it’s 11 feet tall.” And then we’d say, “You know what? Let’s just call it 11 and a half feet.” That’s compromise, instead of. The right thing to do is to get a tape measure or figure out some way of actually measuring, but think getting that tape measure and figure out how to get it to the top of the ceiling and all these things, that requires energy. Compromise, the advantage of compromise as a resolution mechanism is that it’s low energy, but it doesn’t lead to truth. And so in things like the height of the ceiling where truth is a noble thing, you shouldn’t allow compromise to be used when you can know the truth.
Another really bad resolution mechanism that happens all the time is just who’s more stubborn? This is also, let’s say two executives who disagree and they just have a war of attrition, and whichever one gets exhausted first capitulates to the other one. Again, you haven’t arrived at truth and this is very demoralizing. So this is where escalation, I try to ask people on my team and say, “Never get to a point where you are resolving something by who gets exhausted first. Escalate that.” I’ll help you make the decision because that’s so de-energized and such a terrible, lousy way to make a decision.
Lex Fridman
Do you want to get to the resolution as quickly as possible because that ultimately leads to high velocity of decision?
Do you want to get to the resolution as quickly as possible because that ultimately leads to high velocity of decision?
Jeff Bezos
Yes, and you want to try to get as close to truth as possible. Exhausting the other person is not truth seeking.
Yes, and you want to try to get as close to truth as possible. Exhausting the other person is not truth seeking.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Jeff Bezos
And compromise is not truth seeking. And there are a lot of cases where no one knows the real truth and that’s where disagree and commit can come in, but escalation is better than war of attrition. Escalate to your boss and say, “Hey, we can’t agree on this. We like each other. We’re respectful of each other, but we strongly disagree with each other. We need you to make a decision here so we can move forward.” But decisiveness, moving forward quickly on decisions, as quickly as you responsibly can is how you increase velocity. Most of what slows things down is taking too long to make decisions at all scale levels. So it has to be part of the culture to get high velocity. Amazon has a million and a half people and the company is still fast. We’re still decisive, we’re still quick, and that’s because the culture supports that.
And compromise is not truth seeking. And there are a lot of cases where no one knows the real truth and that’s where disagree and commit can come in, but escalation is better than war of attrition. Escalate to your boss and say, “Hey, we can’t agree on this. We like each other. We’re respectful of each other, but we strongly disagree with each other. We need you to make a decision here so we can move forward.” But decisiveness, moving forward quickly on decisions, as quickly as you responsibly can is how you increase velocity. Most of what slows things down is taking too long to make decisions at all scale levels. So it has to be part of the culture to get high velocity. Amazon has a million and a half people and the company is still fast. We’re still decisive, we’re still quick, and that’s because the culture supports that.
Lex Fridman
At every scale in a distributed way-
At every scale in a distributed way-
Jeff Bezos
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Try to maximize the velocity of decisions.
Try to maximize the velocity of decisions.
Jeff Bezos
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lunar program
Lex Fridman
You’ve mentioned the lunar program. Let me ask you about that. There’s a lot going on there and you haven’t really talked about it much. So in addition to the Artemis program with NASA, Blue is doing its own lander program. Can you describe it? There’s a sexy picture on Instagram with one of them. Is it the MK1, I guess?
You’ve mentioned the lunar program. Let me ask you about that. There’s a lot going on there and you haven’t really talked about it much. So in addition to the Artemis program with NASA, Blue is doing its own lander program. Can you describe it? There’s a sexy picture on Instagram with one of them. Is it the MK1, I guess?
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, The Mark 1. The picture here is me with Bill Nelson, the NASA Administrator.
Yeah, The Mark 1. The picture here is me with Bill Nelson, the NASA Administrator.
Lex Fridman
Just to clarify, the lander is the sexy thing about the [inaudible 01:09:29]. I really want to clarify that.
Just to clarify, the lander is the sexy thing about the [inaudible 01:09:29]. I really want to clarify that.
Jeff Bezos
I know it’s not me. I know it was either the lander or Bill.
I know it’s not me. I know it was either the lander or Bill.
Lex Fridman
Okay. I love Bill, but-
Okay. I love Bill, but-
Jeff Bezos
Thank you for clarifying.
Thank you for clarifying.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Jeff Bezos
Yes, the Mark 1 lander is designed to take 3,000 kilograms to the surface of the moon and to cargo expendable cargo. It’s an expendable lander. Lands on the moon, stays there, take 3,000 kilograms to the surface. It can be launched on a single New Glenn flight, which is very important. So it’s a relatively simple architecture, just like the human landing system lander, they’re called the Mark 2. Mark 1 is also fueled with liquid hydrogen, which is for high energy emissions like landing on the surface of the moon. The high specific impulsive hydrogen is a very big advantage.
Yes, the Mark 1 lander is designed to take 3,000 kilograms to the surface of the moon and to cargo expendable cargo. It’s an expendable lander. Lands on the moon, stays there, take 3,000 kilograms to the surface. It can be launched on a single New Glenn flight, which is very important. So it’s a relatively simple architecture, just like the human landing system lander, they’re called the Mark 2. Mark 1 is also fueled with liquid hydrogen, which is for high energy emissions like landing on the surface of the moon. The high specific impulsive hydrogen is a very big advantage.
The disadvantage of hydrogen has always been that since it’s such a deep cryogen, it’s not storable. So it’s constantly boiling off and you’re losing propellant because it’s boiling off. And so what we’re doing as part of our lunar program is developing solar-powered cryo coolers that can actually make hydrogen a storable propellant for deep space. And that’s a real game-changer. It’s a game-changer for any high energy mission. So to the moon, but to the outer planets, to Mars, everywhere.
Lex Fridman
So the idea with both Mark 1 and Mark 2 is the New Glenn can carry it from the surface of earth to the surface of the moon?
So the idea with both Mark 1 and Mark 2 is the New Glenn can carry it from the surface of earth to the surface of the moon?
Jeff Bezos
Exactly. So the Mark 1 is expendable. The lunar lander we’re developing for NASA, the Mark 2 lander, that’s part of the Artemis program. They call it the Sustaining Lander Program. So that lander is designed to be reusable. It can land on the surface of the moon in a single stage configuration and then take off. So if you look at the Apollo program, the lunar lander and Apollo was really two stages. It would land on the surface and then it would leave the descent stage on the surface of the moon and only the ascent stage would go back up into lunar orbit where it would rendezvous with the command module.
Exactly. So the Mark 1 is expendable. The lunar lander we’re developing for NASA, the Mark 2 lander, that’s part of the Artemis program. They call it the Sustaining Lander Program. So that lander is designed to be reusable. It can land on the surface of the moon in a single stage configuration and then take off. So if you look at the Apollo program, the lunar lander and Apollo was really two stages. It would land on the surface and then it would leave the descent stage on the surface of the moon and only the ascent stage would go back up into lunar orbit where it would rendezvous with the command module.
Here, what we’re doing is we have a single stage lunar lander that carries down enough propellant so that it can bring the whole thing back up so that it can be reused over and over. And the point of doing that, of course, is to reduce cost so that you can make lunar missions more affordable over time, which is that’s one of NASA’s big objectives because this time… The whole point of Artemis is go back to the moon, but this time to stay. So back in the Apollo program, we went to the moon six times and then ended the program and it really was too expensive to continue.
Lex Fridman
And so there’s a few questions there, but one is how do you stay on the moon? What ideas do you have about sustaining life where a few folks can stay there for prolonged periods of time?
And so there’s a few questions there, but one is how do you stay on the moon? What ideas do you have about sustaining life where a few folks can stay there for prolonged periods of time?
Jeff Bezos
Well, one of the things we’re working on is using lunar resources like lunar regolith to manufacture commodities and even solar cells on the surface of the moon. We’ve already built a solar cell that is completely made from lunar regolith stimulant, and this solar cell is only about 7% power efficient. So it’s very inefficient compared to the more advanced solar cells that we make here on earth. But if you can figure out how to make a practical solar cell factory that you can land on the surface of the moon and then the raw material for those solar cells is simply lunar regolith, then you can just continue to churn out solar cells on the surface of the moon, have lots of power on the surface of the moon. That will make it easier for people to live on the moon.
Well, one of the things we’re working on is using lunar resources like lunar regolith to manufacture commodities and even solar cells on the surface of the moon. We’ve already built a solar cell that is completely made from lunar regolith stimulant, and this solar cell is only about 7% power efficient. So it’s very inefficient compared to the more advanced solar cells that we make here on earth. But if you can figure out how to make a practical solar cell factory that you can land on the surface of the moon and then the raw material for those solar cells is simply lunar regolith, then you can just continue to churn out solar cells on the surface of the moon, have lots of power on the surface of the moon. That will make it easier for people to live on the moon.
Similarly, we’re working on extracting oxygen from lunar regolith. So lunar regolith by weight has a lot of oxygen in it. It’s bound very tightly as oxides with other elements. And so you have to separate the oxygen, which is very energy intensive. So that also could work together with the solar cells. And then ultimately, we may be able to find practical quantities of ice in the permanently shadowed craters on the poles of the moon. And we know there is ice water or water ice in those craters, and we know that we can break that down with electrolysis into hydrogen and oxygen. And then you’d not only have oxygen, but you’d also have a very good high efficiency propellant fuel in hydrogen.
So there’s a lot we can do to make the moon more sustainable over time, but the very first step, the gate that all of that has to go through is we need to be able to land cargo and humans on the surface of the moon at an acceptable cost.
Lex Fridman
To fast-forward a little bit, is there any chance Jeff Bezos steps foot on the moon and on Mars, one or the other or both?
To fast-forward a little bit, is there any chance Jeff Bezos steps foot on the moon and on Mars, one or the other or both?
Jeff Bezos
It’s very unlikely. I think it’s probably something that gets done by future generations by the time it gets to me. I think in my lifetime that’s probably going to be done by professional astronauts, sadly. I would love to sign up for that mission. So don’t count me out yet, Lex. Give me a finding shot here maybe, but I think if we are placing reasonable bets on such a thing, in my lifetime, that will continue to be done by professional astronauts.
It’s very unlikely. I think it’s probably something that gets done by future generations by the time it gets to me. I think in my lifetime that’s probably going to be done by professional astronauts, sadly. I would love to sign up for that mission. So don’t count me out yet, Lex. Give me a finding shot here maybe, but I think if we are placing reasonable bets on such a thing, in my lifetime, that will continue to be done by professional astronauts.
Lex Fridman
So these are risky, difficult missions?
So these are risky, difficult missions?
Jeff Bezos
And probably missions that require a lot of training. You are going there for a very specific purpose to do something. We’re going to be able to do a lot on the moon too with automation. So in terms of setting up these factories and doing all that, we are sophisticated enough now with automation that we probably don’t need humans to tend those factories and machines. So there’s a lot that’s going to be done in both modes.
And probably missions that require a lot of training. You are going there for a very specific purpose to do something. We’re going to be able to do a lot on the moon too with automation. So in terms of setting up these factories and doing all that, we are sophisticated enough now with automation that we probably don’t need humans to tend those factories and machines. So there’s a lot that’s going to be done in both modes.
Lex Fridman
So I have to ask the bigger picture question about the two companies pushing humanity forward out towards the stars, Blue Origin and SpaceX. Are you competitors, collaborators? Which and to what degree?
So I have to ask the bigger picture question about the two companies pushing humanity forward out towards the stars, Blue Origin and SpaceX. Are you competitors, collaborators? Which and to what degree?
Jeff Bezos
Well, I would say just like the internet is big and there are lots of winners at all scale levels, there are half a dozen giant companies that the internet has made, but there are a bunch of medium-sized companies and a bunch of small companies, all successful, all with profit streams, all driving great customer experiences. That’s what we want to see in space, that kind of dynamism. And space is big. There’s room for a bunch of winners and it’s going to happen at all skill levels. And so SpaceX is going to be successful for sure. I want Blue Origin to be successful, and I hope there are another five companies right behind us.
Well, I would say just like the internet is big and there are lots of winners at all scale levels, there are half a dozen giant companies that the internet has made, but there are a bunch of medium-sized companies and a bunch of small companies, all successful, all with profit streams, all driving great customer experiences. That’s what we want to see in space, that kind of dynamism. And space is big. There’s room for a bunch of winners and it’s going to happen at all skill levels. And so SpaceX is going to be successful for sure. I want Blue Origin to be successful, and I hope there are another five companies right behind us.
Lex Fridman
But I spoke to Elon a few times recently about you, about Blue Origin, and he was very positive about you as a person and very supportive of all the efforts you’ve been leading at Blue. What’s your thoughts? You worked with a lot of leaders at Amazon at Blue. What’s your thoughts about Elon as a human being and a leader?
But I spoke to Elon a few times recently about you, about Blue Origin, and he was very positive about you as a person and very supportive of all the efforts you’ve been leading at Blue. What’s your thoughts? You worked with a lot of leaders at Amazon at Blue. What’s your thoughts about Elon as a human being and a leader?
Jeff Bezos
Well, I don’t really know Elon very well. I know his public persona, but I also know you can’t know anyone by their public persona. It’s impossible. You may think you do, but I guarantee you don’t. So I don’t really know. You know Elon way better than I do, Lex, but in terms of judging by the results, he must be a very capable leader. There’s no way you could have Tesla and SpaceX without being a capable leader. It’s impossible.
Well, I don’t really know Elon very well. I know his public persona, but I also know you can’t know anyone by their public persona. It’s impossible. You may think you do, but I guarantee you don’t. So I don’t really know. You know Elon way better than I do, Lex, but in terms of judging by the results, he must be a very capable leader. There’s no way you could have Tesla and SpaceX without being a capable leader. It’s impossible.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I hope you guys hang out sometimes, shake hands and sort of have a kind of friendship that would inspire just the entirety of humanity, because what you’re doing is one of the big grand challenges ahead for humanity.
Yeah, I hope you guys hang out sometimes, shake hands and sort of have a kind of friendship that would inspire just the entirety of humanity, because what you’re doing is one of the big grand challenges ahead for humanity.
Jeff Bezos
Well, I agree with you and I think in a lot of these endeavors we’re very like-minded. So I’m not saying we’re identical, but I think we’re very like-minded. And so I love that idea.
Well, I agree with you and I think in a lot of these endeavors we’re very like-minded. So I’m not saying we’re identical, but I think we’re very like-minded. And so I love that idea.
Amazon
Lex Fridman
All right, going back to sexy pictures on your Instagram, there’s a video of you from the early days of Amazon, giving a tour of your, “Offices.” I think your dad is holding the camera.
All right, going back to sexy pictures on your Instagram, there’s a video of you from the early days of Amazon, giving a tour of your, “Offices.” I think your dad is holding the camera.
Jeff Bezos
He is. Yeah, I know, right? Yes. This is what? The giant orange extension cord.
He is. Yeah, I know, right? Yes. This is what? The giant orange extension cord.
Lex Fridman
And you’re explaining the genius of the extension cord and how this is a desk and the CRT monitor, and that’s where all the magic happened. I forget what your dad said, but this is the center of it all. So what was it like? What was going through your mind at that time? You left a good job in New York and took this leap. Were you excited? Were you scared?
And you’re explaining the genius of the extension cord and how this is a desk and the CRT monitor, and that’s where all the magic happened. I forget what your dad said, but this is the center of it all. So what was it like? What was going through your mind at that time? You left a good job in New York and took this leap. Were you excited? Were you scared?
Jeff Bezos
So excited and scared, anxious. Thought the odds of success were low. Told all of our early investors that I thought there was a 30% chance of success by which I just mean getting your money back, not what actually happened. Because that’s the truth. Every startup company is unlikely to work. It’s helpful to be in reality about that, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be optimistic. So you have to have this duality in your head. On the one hand, you know what the baseline statistics say about startup companies, and the other hand, you have to ignore all of that and just be 100% sure it’s going to work, and you’re doing both things at the same time. You’re holding that contradiction in your head.
So excited and scared, anxious. Thought the odds of success were low. Told all of our early investors that I thought there was a 30% chance of success by which I just mean getting your money back, not what actually happened. Because that’s the truth. Every startup company is unlikely to work. It’s helpful to be in reality about that, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be optimistic. So you have to have this duality in your head. On the one hand, you know what the baseline statistics say about startup companies, and the other hand, you have to ignore all of that and just be 100% sure it’s going to work, and you’re doing both things at the same time. You’re holding that contradiction in your head.
But it was so exciting. From 1994 when the company was founded to 1995 when we opened our doors, all the way until today, I find Amazon so exciting. And that doesn’t mean… It’s full of pain, full of problems. It’s like there’s so many things that need to be resolved and worked and made better and et cetera. But on balance, it’s so fun. It’s such a privilege. It’s been such a joy. I feel so grateful that I’ve been part of that journey. It’s just been incredible.
Lex Fridman
So in some sense, you don’t want a single day of comfort. You’ve written about this many times. We’ll talk about your writing, which I would highly recommend people read and just the letters to shareholders. So explaining the idea of day one thinking, I think you first wrote about in 97 letters to shareholders. Then you also in a way wrote it about, sad to say, is your last letter to shareholders as CEO. And you said that, “Day two is stasis followed by irrelevance, followed by excruciating painful decline, followed by death.” And that is why it’s always day one. Can you explain this day one thing? This is a really powerful way to describe the beginning and the journey of Amazon.
So in some sense, you don’t want a single day of comfort. You’ve written about this many times. We’ll talk about your writing, which I would highly recommend people read and just the letters to shareholders. So explaining the idea of day one thinking, I think you first wrote about in 97 letters to shareholders. Then you also in a way wrote it about, sad to say, is your last letter to shareholders as CEO. And you said that, “Day two is stasis followed by irrelevance, followed by excruciating painful decline, followed by death.” And that is why it’s always day one. Can you explain this day one thing? This is a really powerful way to describe the beginning and the journey of Amazon.
Jeff Bezos
It’s really a very simple, and I think age-old idea about renewal and rebirth and every day is day one. Every day you are deciding what you’re going to do and you are not trapped by what you were or who you were or any self-consistency. Self-consistency even can be a trap. And so day one thinking is we start fresh every day and we get to make new decisions every day about invention, about customers, about how we’re going to operate. Even as deeply as what our principles are, we can go back to that. It turns out we don’t change those very often, but we change them occasionally.
It’s really a very simple, and I think age-old idea about renewal and rebirth and every day is day one. Every day you are deciding what you’re going to do and you are not trapped by what you were or who you were or any self-consistency. Self-consistency even can be a trap. And so day one thinking is we start fresh every day and we get to make new decisions every day about invention, about customers, about how we’re going to operate. Even as deeply as what our principles are, we can go back to that. It turns out we don’t change those very often, but we change them occasionally.
And when we work on programs at Amazon, we often make a list of tenants. And the tenants are… They’re not principles, they’re a little more tactical than principles, but it’s the main ideas that we want this program to embody, whatever those are. And one of the things that we do is we put, “These are the tenets for this program and parentheses.” We always put, “Unless you know a better way.” And that idea, “Unless you know a better way,” is so important because you never want to get trapped by dogma. You never want to get trapped by history. It doesn’t mean you discard history or ignore it. There’s so much value in what has worked in the past, but you can’t be blindly following what you’ve done. And that’s the heart of day one, is you’re always starting afresh.
Lex Fridman
And to the question of how to fend off day two, you said, “Such a question can’t have a simple answer,” as you’re saying. “There will be many elements, multiple paths, and many traps. I don’t know the whole answer, but I may know bits of it. Here’s a starter pack of essentials, maybe others come to mind. For day one, defense, customer obsession, a skeptical view of proxies, the eager adoption of external trends and high velocity decision-making.”
And to the question of how to fend off day two, you said, “Such a question can’t have a simple answer,” as you’re saying. “There will be many elements, multiple paths, and many traps. I don’t know the whole answer, but I may know bits of it. Here’s a starter pack of essentials, maybe others come to mind. For day one, defense, customer obsession, a skeptical view of proxies, the eager adoption of external trends and high velocity decision-making.”
So we talked about high velocity decision-making, that’s more difficult than it sounds. So maybe you can pick one that stands out to you as you can comment on. Eager adoption of external trends, high velocity decision-making, skeptical view of proxies. How do you fight off day two?
Jeff Bezos
Well, I’ll talk about… Because I think it’s the one that is maybe in some ways the hardest to understand, is the skeptical view of proxies. One of the things that happens in business, probably anything where you have an ongoing program and something is underway for a number of years, is you develop certain things that you’re managing to. The typical case would be a metric, and that metric isn’t the real underlying thing. And so maybe the metric is efficiency metric around customer contacts per unit sold or something like. If you sell a million units, how many customer contacts do you get or how many returns do you get? And so on and so on.
Well, I’ll talk about… Because I think it’s the one that is maybe in some ways the hardest to understand, is the skeptical view of proxies. One of the things that happens in business, probably anything where you have an ongoing program and something is underway for a number of years, is you develop certain things that you’re managing to. The typical case would be a metric, and that metric isn’t the real underlying thing. And so maybe the metric is efficiency metric around customer contacts per unit sold or something like. If you sell a million units, how many customer contacts do you get or how many returns do you get? And so on and so on.
And so what happens is a little bit of a kind of inertia sets in where somebody a long time ago invented that metric and they invented that metric, they decided, “We need to watch for customer returns per unit sold as an important metric.” But they had a reason why they chose that metric, the person who invented that metric and decided it was worth watching. And then fast-forward five years, that metric is the proxy.
Lex Fridman
The proxy for truth, I guess.
The proxy for truth, I guess.
Jeff Bezos
The proxy for truth. Let’s say in this case it’s a proxy for customer happiness, but that metric is not actually customer happiness. It’s a proxy for customer happiness. The person who invented the metric understood that connection. Five years later, a kind of inertia can set in and you forget the truth behind why you were watching that metric in the first place. And the world shifts a little and now that proxy isn’t as valuable as it used to be or it’s missing something. And you have to be on alert for that. You have to know, “Okay, I don’t really care about this metric. I care about customer happiness and this metric is worth putting energy into and following and improving and scrutinizing, only in so much as it actually affects customer happiness.”
The proxy for truth. Let’s say in this case it’s a proxy for customer happiness, but that metric is not actually customer happiness. It’s a proxy for customer happiness. The person who invented the metric understood that connection. Five years later, a kind of inertia can set in and you forget the truth behind why you were watching that metric in the first place. And the world shifts a little and now that proxy isn’t as valuable as it used to be or it’s missing something. And you have to be on alert for that. You have to know, “Okay, I don’t really care about this metric. I care about customer happiness and this metric is worth putting energy into and following and improving and scrutinizing, only in so much as it actually affects customer happiness.”
And so you’ve got to constantly be on guard and it’s very, very common. This is a nuanced problem. It’s very common, especially in large companies, that they’re managing to metrics that they don’t really understand. They don’t really know why they exist, and the world may have shifted out from under them a little and the metrics are no longer as relevant as they were when somebody 10 years earlier invented the metric.
Lex Fridman
That is a nuance, but that’s a big problem. Right?
That is a nuance, but that’s a big problem. Right?
Jeff Bezos
It’s a huge problem.
It’s a huge problem.
Lex Fridman
There’s something so compelling to have a nice metric to try to optimize.
There’s something so compelling to have a nice metric to try to optimize.
Jeff Bezos
Yes. And by the way, you do need metrics.
Yes. And by the way, you do need metrics.
Lex Fridman
Yes, you do.
Yes, you do.
Jeff Bezos
You can’t ignore them. Want them, but you just have to be constantly on guard. This is a way to slip into day two thinking would be to manage your business to metrics that you don’t really understand and you’re not really sure why they were invented in the first place, and you’re not sure they’re still as relevant as they used to be.
You can’t ignore them. Want them, but you just have to be constantly on guard. This is a way to slip into day two thinking would be to manage your business to metrics that you don’t really understand and you’re not really sure why they were invented in the first place, and you’re not sure they’re still as relevant as they used to be.
Lex Fridman
What does it take to be the guy or gal who brings up the point that this proxy might be outdated? I guess what does it take to have a culture that enables that in the meeting? Because that’s a very uncomfortable thing to bring up at a meeting. “We all showed up here, it’s a Friday.”
What does it take to be the guy or gal who brings up the point that this proxy might be outdated? I guess what does it take to have a culture that enables that in the meeting? Because that’s a very uncomfortable thing to bring up at a meeting. “We all showed up here, it’s a Friday.”
Jeff Bezos
You have just asked a million-dollar question. So if I generalize what you’re asking, you are talking in general about truth-telling and we humans are not really truth-seeking animals. We are social animals.
You have just asked a million-dollar question. So if I generalize what you’re asking, you are talking in general about truth-telling and we humans are not really truth-seeking animals. We are social animals.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, we are.
Yeah, we are.
Jeff Bezos
And take you back in time 10,000 years and you’re in a small village. If you go along to get along, you can survive. You can procreate. If you’re the village truth-teller, you might get clubbed to death in the middle of the night. Truths are often… They don’t want to be heard because important truths can be uncomfortable, they can be awkward, they can be exhausting.
And take you back in time 10,000 years and you’re in a small village. If you go along to get along, you can survive. You can procreate. If you’re the village truth-teller, you might get clubbed to death in the middle of the night. Truths are often… They don’t want to be heard because important truths can be uncomfortable, they can be awkward, they can be exhausting.
Lex Fridman
Impolite and all that kind of stuff.
Impolite and all that kind of stuff.
Jeff Bezos
Yes, challenging. They can make people defensive even if that’s not the intent. But any high performing organization, whether it’s a sports team, a business, a political organization, an activist group, I don’t care what it is, any high performing organization has to have mechanisms and a culture that supports truth-telling. One of the things you have to do is you have to talk about that. You have to talk about the fact that it takes energy to do that. You have to talk to people, you have to remind people, “It’s okay that it’s uncomfortable.” Literally tell people, “It’s not what we’re designed to do as humans.” It’s kind of a side effect. We can do that, but it’s not how we survive. We mostly survive by being social animals and being cordial and cooperative, and that’s really important.
Yes, challenging. They can make people defensive even if that’s not the intent. But any high performing organization, whether it’s a sports team, a business, a political organization, an activist group, I don’t care what it is, any high performing organization has to have mechanisms and a culture that supports truth-telling. One of the things you have to do is you have to talk about that. You have to talk about the fact that it takes energy to do that. You have to talk to people, you have to remind people, “It’s okay that it’s uncomfortable.” Literally tell people, “It’s not what we’re designed to do as humans.” It’s kind of a side effect. We can do that, but it’s not how we survive. We mostly survive by being social animals and being cordial and cooperative, and that’s really important.
And so science is all about truth-telling. It’s actually a very formal mechanism for trying to tell the truth. And even in science, you find that it’s hard to tell the truth. Even you’re supposed to have hypothesis and test it and find data and reject the hypothesis and so on, it’s not easy.
Lex Fridman
But even in science, there’s like the senior scientists and the junior scientists.
But even in science, there’s like the senior scientists and the junior scientists.
Jeff Bezos
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
And then there’s a hierarchy of humans where somehow seniority matters in the scientific process, which it should not.
And then there’s a hierarchy of humans where somehow seniority matters in the scientific process, which it should not.
Jeff Bezos
Yes, and that’s true inside companies too. And so you want to set up your culture so that the most junior person can overrule the most senior person if they have data. And that really is about trying to… There are little things you can do. So for example, in every meeting that I attend, I always speak last. And I know from experience that if I speak first, even very strong-willed, highly intelligent, high judgment participants in that meeting will wonder, “Well, if Jeff thinks that, I came in this meeting thinking one thing, but maybe I’m not right.” And so you can do little things like if you’re the most senior person in the room, go last, let everybody else go first. In fact, ideally, let’s try to have the most junior person go first and the second and try to go in order of seniority so that you can hear everyone’s opinion in an unfiltered way. Because we really do, we actually literally change our opinions. If somebody who you really respect says something, it makes you change your mind a little.
Yes, and that’s true inside companies too. And so you want to set up your culture so that the most junior person can overrule the most senior person if they have data. And that really is about trying to… There are little things you can do. So for example, in every meeting that I attend, I always speak last. And I know from experience that if I speak first, even very strong-willed, highly intelligent, high judgment participants in that meeting will wonder, “Well, if Jeff thinks that, I came in this meeting thinking one thing, but maybe I’m not right.” And so you can do little things like if you’re the most senior person in the room, go last, let everybody else go first. In fact, ideally, let’s try to have the most junior person go first and the second and try to go in order of seniority so that you can hear everyone’s opinion in an unfiltered way. Because we really do, we actually literally change our opinions. If somebody who you really respect says something, it makes you change your mind a little.
Lex Fridman
So you’re saying implicitly or explicitly, give permission for people to have a strong opinion, as long as it’s backed by data.
So you’re saying implicitly or explicitly, give permission for people to have a strong opinion, as long as it’s backed by data.
Jeff Bezos
Yes, and sometimes it can even… By the way, a lot of our most powerful truths turn out to be hunches, they turn out to be based on anecdotes, they’re intuition based. And sometimes you don’t even have strong data, but you may know the person well enough to trust their judgment. You may feel yourself leaning in. It may resonate with a set of anecdotes you have, and then you may be able to say, “Something about that feels right. Let’s go collect some data on that. Let’s try to see if we can actually know whether it’s right. But for now, let’s not disregard it. It feels right.”
Yes, and sometimes it can even… By the way, a lot of our most powerful truths turn out to be hunches, they turn out to be based on anecdotes, they’re intuition based. And sometimes you don’t even have strong data, but you may know the person well enough to trust their judgment. You may feel yourself leaning in. It may resonate with a set of anecdotes you have, and then you may be able to say, “Something about that feels right. Let’s go collect some data on that. Let’s try to see if we can actually know whether it’s right. But for now, let’s not disregard it. It feels right.”
You can also fight inherent bias. There’s an optimism bias. If there are two interpretations of a new set of data and one of them is happy and one of them is unhappy, it’s a little dangerous to jump to the conclusion that the happy interpretation is right. You may want to compensate for that human bias of trying to find the silver lining and say, “Look, that might be good, but I’m going to go with it’s bad for now until we’re sure.”
Lex Fridman
So speaking of happiness bias, data collection and anecdotes, you have to… How’s that for a transition? You have to tell me the story of the call you made, the customer service call you made to demonstrate a point about wait times?
So speaking of happiness bias, data collection and anecdotes, you have to… How’s that for a transition? You have to tell me the story of the call you made, the customer service call you made to demonstrate a point about wait times?
Jeff Bezos
Yeah. This is very early in the history of Amazon.
Yeah. This is very early in the history of Amazon.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Jeff Bezos
And we were going over a weekly business review and a set of documents, and I have a saying, which is when the data and the anecdotes disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. And it doesn’t mean you just slavishly go follow the anecdotes then. It means you go examine the data because it’s usually not that the data is being miscollected, it’s usually that you’re not measuring the right thing. And so of you have a bunch of customers complaining about something and at the same time, your metrics look like they shouldn’t be complaining, you should doubt the metrics.
And we were going over a weekly business review and a set of documents, and I have a saying, which is when the data and the anecdotes disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. And it doesn’t mean you just slavishly go follow the anecdotes then. It means you go examine the data because it’s usually not that the data is being miscollected, it’s usually that you’re not measuring the right thing. And so of you have a bunch of customers complaining about something and at the same time, your metrics look like they shouldn’t be complaining, you should doubt the metrics.
And an early example of this was we had metrics that showed that our customers were waiting, I think less than, I don’t know, 60 seconds when they called a 1-800 number to get phone customer service. The wait time was supposed to be less than 60 seconds, but we had a lot of complaints that it was longer than that. And anecdotally it seemed longer than that. I would call customer service myself. And so one day we’re in a meeting, we’re going through the WBR, the weekly business review, and we get to this metric in the deck, and the guy who leads customer service is defending the metric. And I said, “Okay, let’s call.” Picked up the phone, and I dialed the 1-800 number and called customer service, and we just waited in silence.
Lex Fridman
What did it turn out to be?
What did it turn out to be?
Jeff Bezos
Oh, it was really long, more than 10 minutes, I think.
Oh, it was really long, more than 10 minutes, I think.
Lex Fridman
Oh, wow.
Oh, wow.
Jeff Bezos
It was many minutes. And so it dramatically made the point that something was wrong with the data collection. We weren’t measuring the right thing, and that set off a whole chain of events where we started measuring it right. And that’s an example, by the way, of truth-telling is like that’s an uncomfortable thing to do, but you have to seek truth even when it’s uncomfortable, and you have to get people’s attention and they have to buy into it, and they have to get energized around really fixing things.
It was many minutes. And so it dramatically made the point that something was wrong with the data collection. We weren’t measuring the right thing, and that set off a whole chain of events where we started measuring it right. And that’s an example, by the way, of truth-telling is like that’s an uncomfortable thing to do, but you have to seek truth even when it’s uncomfortable, and you have to get people’s attention and they have to buy into it, and they have to get energized around really fixing things.
Principles
Lex Fridman
So that speaks to the obsession with the customer experience. So one of the defining aspects of your approach to Amazon is just being obsessed with making customers happy. I think companies sometimes say that, but Amazon is really obsessed with that. I think there’s something really profound to that, which is seeing the world through the eyes of the customer, like the customer experience, the human being that’s using the product, that’s enjoying the product, the subtle little things that make up their experience. How do you optimize those?
So that speaks to the obsession with the customer experience. So one of the defining aspects of your approach to Amazon is just being obsessed with making customers happy. I think companies sometimes say that, but Amazon is really obsessed with that. I think there’s something really profound to that, which is seeing the world through the eyes of the customer, like the customer experience, the human being that’s using the product, that’s enjoying the product, the subtle little things that make up their experience. How do you optimize those?
Jeff Bezos
This is another really good and deep question because there are big things that are really important to manage, and then there are small things. Internally into Amazon, we call them paper cuts. So we’re always working on the big things, if you ask me. And most of the energy goes into the big things, as it should, and you can identify the big things. And I would encourage anybody, if anybody listening to this is an entrepreneur, has a small business, whatever, think about the things that are not going to change over 10 years. And those are probably the big things.
This is another really good and deep question because there are big things that are really important to manage, and then there are small things. Internally into Amazon, we call them paper cuts. So we’re always working on the big things, if you ask me. And most of the energy goes into the big things, as it should, and you can identify the big things. And I would encourage anybody, if anybody listening to this is an entrepreneur, has a small business, whatever, think about the things that are not going to change over 10 years. And those are probably the big things.
So I know in our retail business at Amazon, 10 years from now, customers are still going to want low prices. I know they’re still going to want fast delivery, and I just know they’re still going to want big selection. So it’s impossible to imagine a scenario where 10 years from now where a customer says, “I love Amazon, I just wish the prices were a little higher,” or, “I love Amazon, I just wish you delivered a little more slowly.” So when you identify the big things you can tell they’re worth putting energy into because they’re stable in time.
Okay, but you’re asking about something a little different, which is in every customer experience, there are those big things. And by the way, it’s astonishingly hard to focus even on just the big things. So even though they’re obvious, they’re really hard to focus on. But in addition to that, there are all these little tiny customer experience deficiencies, and we call those paper cuts. We make long lists of them. And then we have dedicated teams that go fix paper cuts because the teams working on the big issues never get to the paper cuts. They never work their way down the list to get to… They’re working on big things, as they should and as you want them to. And so you need special teams who are charged with fixing…
Jeff Bezos
Special teams who are charged with fixing paper cuts.
Special teams who are charged with fixing paper cuts.
Lex Fridman
Where would you put on the paper cut spectrum the Buy now with the 1-Click button? Which is, I think, pretty genius. So to me, okay, my interaction with things I love on the internet, there’s things I do a lot. I, maybe representing a regular human, I would love for those things to be frictionless. For example, booking airline tickets, just saying. But it’s buying a thing with one click, making that experience frictionless, intuitive, all aspects of that, that just fundamentally makes my life better, not just in terms of efficiency, in terms of some kind of-
Where would you put on the paper cut spectrum the Buy now with the 1-Click button? Which is, I think, pretty genius. So to me, okay, my interaction with things I love on the internet, there’s things I do a lot. I, maybe representing a regular human, I would love for those things to be frictionless. For example, booking airline tickets, just saying. But it’s buying a thing with one click, making that experience frictionless, intuitive, all aspects of that, that just fundamentally makes my life better, not just in terms of efficiency, in terms of some kind of-
Jeff Bezos
Cognitive load.
Cognitive load.
Lex Fridman
… Yeah, cognitive load and inner peace and happiness. Because, first of all, buying stuff is a pleasant experience. Having enough money to buy a thing and then buying it is a pleasant experience. And having pain around that is somehow just you’re ruining a beautiful experience. And I guess all I’m saying as a person who loves good ideas, is that a paper cut, a solution to a paper cut?
… Yeah, cognitive load and inner peace and happiness. Because, first of all, buying stuff is a pleasant experience. Having enough money to buy a thing and then buying it is a pleasant experience. And having pain around that is somehow just you’re ruining a beautiful experience. And I guess all I’m saying as a person who loves good ideas, is that a paper cut, a solution to a paper cut?
Jeff Bezos
Yes. So that particular thing is probably a solution to a number of paper cuts. So if you go back and look at our order pipeline and how people shopped on Amazon before we invented 1-Click shopping, there was more friction. There was a whole series of paper cuts and that invention eliminated a bunch of paper cuts. And I think you’re absolutely right by the way, that when you come up with something like 1-Click shopping, again, this is so ingrained in people now, I’m impressed that you even notice it. Most people-
Yes. So that particular thing is probably a solution to a number of paper cuts. So if you go back and look at our order pipeline and how people shopped on Amazon before we invented 1-Click shopping, there was more friction. There was a whole series of paper cuts and that invention eliminated a bunch of paper cuts. And I think you’re absolutely right by the way, that when you come up with something like 1-Click shopping, again, this is so ingrained in people now, I’m impressed that you even notice it. Most people-
Lex Fridman
Every time I click the button, I just-
Every time I click the button, I just-
Jeff Bezos
… most people never notice.
… most people never notice.
Lex Fridman
… just a surge of happiness.
… just a surge of happiness.
Jeff Bezos
There is in the perfect invention for the perfect moment in the perfect context, there is real beauty. It is actual beauty and it feels good. It’s emotional. It’s emotional for the inventor, it’s emotional for the team that builds it. It’s emotional for the customer. It’s a big deal and you can feel those things.
There is in the perfect invention for the perfect moment in the perfect context, there is real beauty. It is actual beauty and it feels good. It’s emotional. It’s emotional for the inventor, it’s emotional for the team that builds it. It’s emotional for the customer. It’s a big deal and you can feel those things.
Lex Fridman
But to keep coming up with that idea, with those kinds of ideas, I guess is the day one thinking effort.
But to keep coming up with that idea, with those kinds of ideas, I guess is the day one thinking effort.
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, and you need a big group of people who feel that kind of satisfaction with creating that kind of beauty.
Yeah, and you need a big group of people who feel that kind of satisfaction with creating that kind of beauty.
Lex Fridman
There’s a lot of books written about you. There’s a book Invent & Wander where Walter Isaacson does an intro. It’s mostly collective writings of yours. I’ve read that. I also recommend people check out the Founders Podcast that covers you a lot and it does different analysis of different business advice you’ve given over the years. I bring all that up because I mentioned that you said that books are an antidote for short attention spans. And I forget how it was phrased, but that when you were thinking about the Kindle that you were thinking about how technology changes us.
There’s a lot of books written about you. There’s a book Invent & Wander where Walter Isaacson does an intro. It’s mostly collective writings of yours. I’ve read that. I also recommend people check out the Founders Podcast that covers you a lot and it does different analysis of different business advice you’ve given over the years. I bring all that up because I mentioned that you said that books are an antidote for short attention spans. And I forget how it was phrased, but that when you were thinking about the Kindle that you were thinking about how technology changes us.
Jeff Bezos
Changes us. We co-evolve with our tools. So we invent new tools and then our tools change us.
Changes us. We co-evolve with our tools. So we invent new tools and then our tools change us.
Lex Fridman
Which is fascinating to think about.
Which is fascinating to think about.
Jeff Bezos
It goes in a circle
It goes in a circle
Lex Fridman
And there’s some aspect, even just inside business, where you don’t just make the customer happy, but you also have to think about where is this going to take humanity if you zoom out a bit?
And there’s some aspect, even just inside business, where you don’t just make the customer happy, but you also have to think about where is this going to take humanity if you zoom out a bit?
Jeff Bezos
A hundred percent and you can feel your brain. Brains are plastic and you can feel your brain getting reprogrammed. I remember the first time this happened to me was when Tetris who’d first came on the scene. Anybody who’s been a game player has this experience where you close your eyes to lay down to go to sleep and you see all the little blocks moving and you’re kind of rotating them in your mind and you can just tell as you walk around the world that you have rewired your brain to play Tetris. But that happens with everything. I think we still have yet to see the full repercussions of this, I fear, but I think one of the things that we’ve done online and largely because of social media is we have trained our brains to be really good at processing super short form content.
A hundred percent and you can feel your brain. Brains are plastic and you can feel your brain getting reprogrammed. I remember the first time this happened to me was when Tetris who’d first came on the scene. Anybody who’s been a game player has this experience where you close your eyes to lay down to go to sleep and you see all the little blocks moving and you’re kind of rotating them in your mind and you can just tell as you walk around the world that you have rewired your brain to play Tetris. But that happens with everything. I think we still have yet to see the full repercussions of this, I fear, but I think one of the things that we’ve done online and largely because of social media is we have trained our brains to be really good at processing super short form content.
Your podcast flies in the face of this. You do these long format things.
Lex Fridman
Books do too.
Books do too.
Jeff Bezos
And reading books is a long format thing and if something is convenient, we do more of it. We carry around in our pocket a phone, and one of the things that phone does for the most part is it is an attention shortening device because most of the things we do on our phone shorten our attention spans. And I’m not even going to say we know for sure that that’s bad, but I do think it’s happening. That’s one of the ways we’re co-evolving with that tool. But I think it’s important to spend some of your time and some of your life doing long attention span things.
And reading books is a long format thing and if something is convenient, we do more of it. We carry around in our pocket a phone, and one of the things that phone does for the most part is it is an attention shortening device because most of the things we do on our phone shorten our attention spans. And I’m not even going to say we know for sure that that’s bad, but I do think it’s happening. That’s one of the ways we’re co-evolving with that tool. But I think it’s important to spend some of your time and some of your life doing long attention span things.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think you’ve spoken about the value in your own life of focus, of singular focus on a thing for prolonged periods of time, and that’s certainly what books do and that’s certainly what that piece of technology does. But I bring all that up to ask you about another piece of technology, AI, that has the potential to have various trajectories to have an impact on human civilization. How do you think AI will change us?
Yeah, I think you’ve spoken about the value in your own life of focus, of singular focus on a thing for prolonged periods of time, and that’s certainly what books do and that’s certainly what that piece of technology does. But I bring all that up to ask you about another piece of technology, AI, that has the potential to have various trajectories to have an impact on human civilization. How do you think AI will change us?
Jeff Bezos
If you’re talking about generative AI, large language models, things like ChatGPT, and its soon successors, these are incredibly powerful technologies. To believe otherwise is to bury your head in the sand, soon to be even more powerful. It’s interesting to me that large language models in their current form are not inventions, they’re discoveries. The telescope was an invention, but looking through it at Jupiter, knowing that it had moons, was a discovery. My God, it has moons. And that’s what Galileo did. And so this is closer on that spectrum of invention. We know exactly what happens with a 787, it’s an engineered object. We designed it. We know how it behaves. We don’t want any surprises. Large language models are much more like discoveries. We’re constantly getting surprised by their capabilities. They’re not really engineered objects.
If you’re talking about generative AI, large language models, things like ChatGPT, and its soon successors, these are incredibly powerful technologies. To believe otherwise is to bury your head in the sand, soon to be even more powerful. It’s interesting to me that large language models in their current form are not inventions, they’re discoveries. The telescope was an invention, but looking through it at Jupiter, knowing that it had moons, was a discovery. My God, it has moons. And that’s what Galileo did. And so this is closer on that spectrum of invention. We know exactly what happens with a 787, it’s an engineered object. We designed it. We know how it behaves. We don’t want any surprises. Large language models are much more like discoveries. We’re constantly getting surprised by their capabilities. They’re not really engineered objects.
Then you have this debate about whether they’re going to be good for humanity or bad for humanity. Even specialized AI could be very bad for humanity. Just regular machine learning models can make certain weapons of war, that could be incredibly destructive and very powerful. And they’re not general AIs. They could just be very smart weapons. And so we have to think about all of those things. I’m very optimistic about this. So even in the face of all this uncertainty, my own view is that these powerful tools are much more likely to help us and save us even than they are to on balance hurt us and destroy us. I think we humans have a lot of ways of we can make ourselves go extinct. These things may help us not do that, so they may actually save us. So the people who are overly concerned, in my view, overly, it is a valid debate. I think that they may be missing part of the equation, which is how helpful they could be in making sure we don’t destroy ourselves.
I don’t know if you saw the movie Oppenheimer, but to me, first of all, I loved the movie and I thought the best part of the movie is this bureaucrat played by Robert Downey Jr, who some of the people I’ve talked to think that’s the most boring part of the movie. I thought it was the most fascinating because what’s going on here is you realize we have invented these awesome, destructive, powerful technologies called nuclear weapons and they’re managed and we humans, we’re not really capable of wielding those weapons. And that’s what he represented in that movie is here’s this guy, he wrongly thinks… he’s being so petty. He thinks that Oppenheimer said something bad to Einstein about him. They didn’t talk about him at all as you find out in the final scene of the movie. And yet he’s spent his career trying to be vengeful and petty.
And that’s the problem. We as a species are not really sophisticated enough and mature enough to handle these technologies. And by the way, before you get to general AI and the possibility of AI having agency and there’s a lot of things would have to happen, but there’s so much benefit that’s going to come from these technologies in the meantime, even before there are general AI in terms of better medicines and better tools to develop more technologies and so on. So I think it’s an incredible moment to be alive and to witness the transformations that are going to happen. How quickly will happen, no one knows. But over the next 10 years and 20 years, I think we’re going to see really remarkable advances. And I personally am very excited about it.
Lex Fridman
First of all, really interesting to say that it’s discoveries, that it’s true that we don’t know the limits of what’s possible with the current language models.
First of all, really interesting to say that it’s discoveries, that it’s true that we don’t know the limits of what’s possible with the current language models.
Jeff Bezos
We don’t.
We don’t.
Lex Fridman
And it could be a few tricks and hacks here and there that open doors to hold entire new possibilities.
And it could be a few tricks and hacks here and there that open doors to hold entire new possibilities.
Jeff Bezos
We do know that humans are doing something different from these models, in part because we’re so power efficient. The human brain does remarkable things and it does it on about 20 watts of power. And the AI techniques we use today use many kilowatts of power to do equivalent tasks. So there’s something interesting about the way the human brain does this. And also we don’t need as much data. So self-driving cars, they have to drive billions and billions of miles to try to learn how to drive. And your average 16-year-old figures it out with many fewer miles. So there are still some tricks, I think, that we have yet to learn. I don’t think we’ve learned the last trick. I don’t think it’s just a question of scaling things up. But what’s interesting is that just scaling things up, and I put just in quotes because it’s actually hard to scale things up, but just scaling things up also appears to pay huge dividends.
We do know that humans are doing something different from these models, in part because we’re so power efficient. The human brain does remarkable things and it does it on about 20 watts of power. And the AI techniques we use today use many kilowatts of power to do equivalent tasks. So there’s something interesting about the way the human brain does this. And also we don’t need as much data. So self-driving cars, they have to drive billions and billions of miles to try to learn how to drive. And your average 16-year-old figures it out with many fewer miles. So there are still some tricks, I think, that we have yet to learn. I don’t think we’ve learned the last trick. I don’t think it’s just a question of scaling things up. But what’s interesting is that just scaling things up, and I put just in quotes because it’s actually hard to scale things up, but just scaling things up also appears to pay huge dividends.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And there’s some more nuanced aspect about human beings that’s interesting if it’s able to accomplish like being truly original and novel. Large language models, being able to come up with some truly new ideas. That’s one. And the other one is truth. It seems that large language models are very good at sounding like they’re saying a true thing, but they don’t require or often have a grounding in a mathematical truth, basically is a very good bullshitter. So if there’s not enough data in the training data about a particular topic, it’s just going to concoct accurate sounding narratives, which is a very fascinating problem to try to solve, how do you get language models to infer what is true or not to introspect?
Yeah. And there’s some more nuanced aspect about human beings that’s interesting if it’s able to accomplish like being truly original and novel. Large language models, being able to come up with some truly new ideas. That’s one. And the other one is truth. It seems that large language models are very good at sounding like they’re saying a true thing, but they don’t require or often have a grounding in a mathematical truth, basically is a very good bullshitter. So if there’s not enough data in the training data about a particular topic, it’s just going to concoct accurate sounding narratives, which is a very fascinating problem to try to solve, how do you get language models to infer what is true or not to introspect?
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, they need to be taught to say, “I don’t know,” more often and I know several humans who could be taught that as well.
Yeah, they need to be taught to say, “I don’t know,” more often and I know several humans who could be taught that as well.
Lex Fridman
Sure. And then the other stuff, because you’re still a bit involved in the Amazon side with the AI things, the other open question is what kind of products are created from this?
Sure. And then the other stuff, because you’re still a bit involved in the Amazon side with the AI things, the other open question is what kind of products are created from this?
Jeff Bezos
Oh, so many. We have Alexa and Echo and Alexa has hundreds of millions of installed base inputs. And so there’s Alexa everywhere. And guess what? Alexa is about to get a lot smarter. And so from a product point of view, that’s super exciting.
Oh, so many. We have Alexa and Echo and Alexa has hundreds of millions of installed base inputs. And so there’s Alexa everywhere. And guess what? Alexa is about to get a lot smarter. And so from a product point of view, that’s super exciting.
Lex Fridman
There’s so many opportunities there,
There’s so many opportunities there,
Jeff Bezos
So many opportunities. Shopping assistant, all that stuff is amazing. And AWS, we’re building Titan, which is our foundational model. We’re also building Bedrock, which are corporate clients at AWS. Our enterprise clients, they want to be able to use these powerful models with their own corporate data without accidentally contributing their corporate data to that model. And so those are the tools we’re building for them with Bedrock. So there’s tremendous opportunity here.
So many opportunities. Shopping assistant, all that stuff is amazing. And AWS, we’re building Titan, which is our foundational model. We’re also building Bedrock, which are corporate clients at AWS. Our enterprise clients, they want to be able to use these powerful models with their own corporate data without accidentally contributing their corporate data to that model. And so those are the tools we’re building for them with Bedrock. So there’s tremendous opportunity here.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, the security, the privacy, all those things are fascinating. Because so much value can be gained by training on private data, but you want to keep this secure. It’s a fascinating technical problem.
Yeah, the security, the privacy, all those things are fascinating. Because so much value can be gained by training on private data, but you want to keep this secure. It’s a fascinating technical problem.
Jeff Bezos
Yes. This is a very challenging technical problem and it’s one that we’re making progress on and dedicated to solving for our customers.
Yes. This is a very challenging technical problem and it’s one that we’re making progress on and dedicated to solving for our customers.
Lex Fridman
Do you think there will be a day when humans and robots, maybe Alexa, have a romantic relationship like in the movie Her?
Do you think there will be a day when humans and robots, maybe Alexa, have a romantic relationship like in the movie Her?
Jeff Bezos
Well, I think if you look at the-
Well, I think if you look at the-
Lex Fridman
Just brainstorming products here.
Just brainstorming products here.
Jeff Bezos
… if you look at the spectrum of human variety and what people like, sexual variety, there are people who like everything. So the answer to your question has to be yes.
… if you look at the spectrum of human variety and what people like, sexual variety, there are people who like everything. So the answer to your question has to be yes.
Lex Fridman
Okay. I guess I’m asking when-
Okay. I guess I’m asking when-
Jeff Bezos
I don’t know how widespread that will be.
I don’t know how widespread that will be.
Lex Fridman
… All right.
… All right.
Jeff Bezos
But it will happen.
But it will happen.
Productivity
Lex Fridman
I was just asking when for a friend, but it’s all right. Moving on. Next question. What’s a perfectly productive day in the life of Jeff Bezos? You’re one of the most productive humans in the world.
I was just asking when for a friend, but it’s all right. Moving on. Next question. What’s a perfectly productive day in the life of Jeff Bezos? You’re one of the most productive humans in the world.
Jeff Bezos
Well, first of all, I get up in the morning and I putter. I have a coffee.
Well, first of all, I get up in the morning and I putter. I have a coffee.
Lex Fridman
Can you define putter?
Can you define putter?
Jeff Bezos
I slowly move around. I’m not as productive as you might think I am. Because I do believe in wandering and I read my phone for a while. I read newspapers for a while. I chat with Laura and I drink my first coffee. So I move pretty slowly in the first couple of hours. I get up early just naturally, and then I exercise most days. Most days it’s not that hard for me. Some days it’s really hard and I do it anyway, I don’t want to, and it’s painful. And I’m like, “Why am I here?” And I don’t want to do any of this.
I slowly move around. I’m not as productive as you might think I am. Because I do believe in wandering and I read my phone for a while. I read newspapers for a while. I chat with Laura and I drink my first coffee. So I move pretty slowly in the first couple of hours. I get up early just naturally, and then I exercise most days. Most days it’s not that hard for me. Some days it’s really hard and I do it anyway, I don’t want to, and it’s painful. And I’m like, “Why am I here?” And I don’t want to do any of this.
Lex Fridman
“Why am I here at the gym?”
“Why am I here at the gym?”
Jeff Bezos
“Why am I here at the gym? Why don’t I do something else?” It’s not always easy.
“Why am I here at the gym? Why don’t I do something else?” It’s not always easy.
Lex Fridman
What’s your social motivation in those moments?
What’s your social motivation in those moments?
Jeff Bezos
I know that I’ll feel better later if I do it. And so the real source of motivation, I can tell the days when I skip it, I’m not quite as alert. I don’t feel as good. And then there’s harder motivations. It’s longer term, you want to be healthy as you age. You want health span. Ideally, you want to be healthy and moving around when you’re 80 years old. And so there’s a lot of… But that kind of motivation is so far in the future, it can be very hard to work in the second. So thinking about the fact I’ll feel better in about four hours if I do it now, I’ll have more energy for the rest of my day and so on and so on.
I know that I’ll feel better later if I do it. And so the real source of motivation, I can tell the days when I skip it, I’m not quite as alert. I don’t feel as good. And then there’s harder motivations. It’s longer term, you want to be healthy as you age. You want health span. Ideally, you want to be healthy and moving around when you’re 80 years old. And so there’s a lot of… But that kind of motivation is so far in the future, it can be very hard to work in the second. So thinking about the fact I’ll feel better in about four hours if I do it now, I’ll have more energy for the rest of my day and so on and so on.
Lex Fridman
What’s your exercise routine, just to linger on that? How much you curl? What are we talking about here? That’s all I do at the gym so I just…
What’s your exercise routine, just to linger on that? How much you curl? What are we talking about here? That’s all I do at the gym so I just…
Jeff Bezos
My routine on a good day, I do about half an hour of cardio and I do about forty-five minutes of weightlifting, resistance training of some kind, mostly weights. I have a trainer who I love who pushes me, which is really helpful. He’ll say, “Jeff, can we go up on that weight a little bit?”
My routine on a good day, I do about half an hour of cardio and I do about forty-five minutes of weightlifting, resistance training of some kind, mostly weights. I have a trainer who I love who pushes me, which is really helpful. He’ll say, “Jeff, can we go up on that weight a little bit?”
And I’ll think about it and I’ll be like, “No, I don’t think so.”
And he’ll look at me and say, “Yeah, I think you can.” And of course he’s right.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, of course. Of course.
Yeah, of course. Of course.
Jeff Bezos
So it’s helpful to have somebody push you a little bit.
So it’s helpful to have somebody push you a little bit.
Lex Fridman
But almost every day, you do that?
But almost every day, you do that?
Jeff Bezos
Almost every day, I do a little bit of cardio and a little bit of weightlifting and I’d rotate. I do a pulling day and a pushing day and a leg day. It’s all pretty standard stuff.
Almost every day, I do a little bit of cardio and a little bit of weightlifting and I’d rotate. I do a pulling day and a pushing day and a leg day. It’s all pretty standard stuff.
Lex Fridman
So puttering, coffee, gym-
So puttering, coffee, gym-
Jeff Bezos
Puttering, coffee, gym, and then work.
Puttering, coffee, gym, and then work.
Lex Fridman
… work. But what’s work look like? What do the productive hours look like for you?
… work. But what’s work look like? What do the productive hours look like for you?
Jeff Bezos
So a couple years ago, I left as the CEO of Amazon, and I have never worked harder in my life. I am working so hard and I’m mostly enjoying it, but there are also some very painful days. Most of my time is spent on Blue Origin and I’m so deeply involved here now for the last couple of years. And in the big, I love it, and the small, there’s all the frustrations that come along with everything. We’re trying to get to rate manufacturing as we talked about. That’s super important. We’ll get there. We just hired a new CEO, a guy I’ve known for close to 15 years now, a guy named Dave Limp who I love. He’s amazing. So we’re super lucky to have Dave, and you’re going to see us move faster there.
So a couple years ago, I left as the CEO of Amazon, and I have never worked harder in my life. I am working so hard and I’m mostly enjoying it, but there are also some very painful days. Most of my time is spent on Blue Origin and I’m so deeply involved here now for the last couple of years. And in the big, I love it, and the small, there’s all the frustrations that come along with everything. We’re trying to get to rate manufacturing as we talked about. That’s super important. We’ll get there. We just hired a new CEO, a guy I’ve known for close to 15 years now, a guy named Dave Limp who I love. He’s amazing. So we’re super lucky to have Dave, and you’re going to see us move faster there.
So my day of work, reading documents, having meetings, sometimes in person, sometimes over Zoom, depends on where I am. It’s all about the technology, it’s about the organization. I have architecture and technology meetings almost every day on various subsystems inside the vehicle, inside the engines. It’s super fun for me. My favorite part of it is the technology. My least favorite part of it is building organizations and so on. That’s important, but it’s also my least favorite part. So that’s why they call it work. You don’t always get to do what you want to do.
Lex Fridman
How do you achieve time where you can focus and truly think through problems?
How do you achieve time where you can focus and truly think through problems?
Jeff Bezos
I do little thinking retreats. So this is not the only way, I can do that all day long. I’m very good at focusing. I don’t keep to a strict schedule. My meetings often go longer than I planned for them to because I believe in wandering. My perfect meeting starts with a crisp document. So the document should be written with such clarity that it’s like angels singing from on high. I like a crisp document and a messy meeting. And so the meeting is about asking questions that nobody knows the answer to and trying to wander your way to a solution. And when that happens just right, it makes all the other meetings worthwhile. It feels good. It has a kind of beauty to it. It has an aesthetic beauty to it, and you get real breakthroughs in meetings like that.
I do little thinking retreats. So this is not the only way, I can do that all day long. I’m very good at focusing. I don’t keep to a strict schedule. My meetings often go longer than I planned for them to because I believe in wandering. My perfect meeting starts with a crisp document. So the document should be written with such clarity that it’s like angels singing from on high. I like a crisp document and a messy meeting. And so the meeting is about asking questions that nobody knows the answer to and trying to wander your way to a solution. And when that happens just right, it makes all the other meetings worthwhile. It feels good. It has a kind of beauty to it. It has an aesthetic beauty to it, and you get real breakthroughs in meetings like that.
Lex Fridman
Can you actually describe the crisp document? This is one of the legendary aspects of Amazon, of the way you approach meetings is this, the six-page memo. Maybe first describe the process of running a meeting with memos.
Can you actually describe the crisp document? This is one of the legendary aspects of Amazon, of the way you approach meetings is this, the six-page memo. Maybe first describe the process of running a meeting with memos.
Jeff Bezos
Meetings at Amazon and Blue Origin are unusual. When new people come in, like a new executive joins, they’re a little taken aback sometimes because the typical meeting, we’ll start with a six-page narratively structured memo and we do study hall. For 30 minutes, we sit there silently together in the meeting and read.
Meetings at Amazon and Blue Origin are unusual. When new people come in, like a new executive joins, they’re a little taken aback sometimes because the typical meeting, we’ll start with a six-page narratively structured memo and we do study hall. For 30 minutes, we sit there silently together in the meeting and read.
Lex Fridman
I love this.
I love this.
Jeff Bezos
Take notes in the margins. And then we discuss. And the reason, by the way, we do study, you could say, I would like everybody to read these memos in advance, but the problem is people don’t have time to do that. And they end up coming to the meeting having only skimmed the memo or maybe not read it at all, and they’re trying to catch up. And they’re also bluffing like they were in college having pretended to do the reading.
Take notes in the margins. And then we discuss. And the reason, by the way, we do study, you could say, I would like everybody to read these memos in advance, but the problem is people don’t have time to do that. And they end up coming to the meeting having only skimmed the memo or maybe not read it at all, and they’re trying to catch up. And they’re also bluffing like they were in college having pretended to do the reading.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Exactly.
Yeah. Exactly.
Jeff Bezos
It’s better just to carve out the time for people.
It’s better just to carve out the time for people.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And do it together.
Yeah. And do it together.
Jeff Bezos
So now we’re all on the same page, we’ve all read the memo, and now we can have a really elevated discussion. And this is so much better from having a slideshow presentation, a PowerPoint presentation of some kind, where that has so many difficulties. But one of the problems is PowerPoint is really designed to persuade. It’s kind of a sales tool. And internally, the last thing you want to do is sell. Again, you’re truth seeking. You’re trying to find truth. And the other problem with PowerPoint is it’s easy for the author and hard for the audience. And a memo is the opposite. It’s hard to write a six-page memo. A good six-page memo might take two weeks to write. You have to write it, you have to rewrite it, you have to edit it, you have to talk to people about it. They have to poke holes in it for you. You write it again, it might take two weeks. So the author, it’s really a very difficult job, but for the audience it’s much better.
So now we’re all on the same page, we’ve all read the memo, and now we can have a really elevated discussion. And this is so much better from having a slideshow presentation, a PowerPoint presentation of some kind, where that has so many difficulties. But one of the problems is PowerPoint is really designed to persuade. It’s kind of a sales tool. And internally, the last thing you want to do is sell. Again, you’re truth seeking. You’re trying to find truth. And the other problem with PowerPoint is it’s easy for the author and hard for the audience. And a memo is the opposite. It’s hard to write a six-page memo. A good six-page memo might take two weeks to write. You have to write it, you have to rewrite it, you have to edit it, you have to talk to people about it. They have to poke holes in it for you. You write it again, it might take two weeks. So the author, it’s really a very difficult job, but for the audience it’s much better.
So you can read a half hour, and there are little problems with PowerPoint presentations too. Senior executives interrupt with questions halfway through the presentation. That question’s going to be answered on the next slide, but you never got there. If you read the whole memo in advance… I often write lots of questions that I have in the margins of these memos, and then I go cross them all out because by the time I get to the end of the memo, they’ve been answered. That’s why I save all that time.
You also get, if the person who’s preparing the memo, we talked earlier about group think and the fact that I go last in meetings and that you don’t want your ideas to pollute the meeting prematurely, the author of the memos has got to be very vulnerable. They’ve got to put all their thoughts out there and they’ve got to go first. But that’s great because it makes them really good. And you get to see their real ideas and you’re not trompling on them accidentally in a big PowerPoint presentation meeting.
Lex Fridman
What’s that feel like when you’ve authored a thing and then you’re sitting there and everybody’s reading your thing?
What’s that feel like when you’ve authored a thing and then you’re sitting there and everybody’s reading your thing?
Jeff Bezos
I think it’s mostly terrifying.
I think it’s mostly terrifying.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But maybe in a good way? Like a purifying?
Yeah. But maybe in a good way? Like a purifying?
Jeff Bezos
I think it’s terrifying in a productive way, but I think it’s emotionally, a very nerve-racking experience.
I think it’s terrifying in a productive way, but I think it’s emotionally, a very nerve-racking experience.
Lex Fridman
Is there a art, science to the writing of this six-page memo or just writing in general to you?
Is there a art, science to the writing of this six-page memo or just writing in general to you?
Jeff Bezos
It’s really got to be a real memo. So it means paragraphs have topic sentences. It’s verbs and nouns. That’s the other problem with PowerPoint presentations, they’re often just bullet points. And you can hide a lot of sloppy thinking behind bullet points. When you have to write in complete sentences with narrative structure, it’s really hard to hide sloppy thinking. So it forces the author to be at their best, and so they’re somebody’s really their best thinking. And then you don’t have to spend a lot of time trying to tease that thinking out of the person, and you’ve got it from the very beginning. So it really saves you time in the long run.
It’s really got to be a real memo. So it means paragraphs have topic sentences. It’s verbs and nouns. That’s the other problem with PowerPoint presentations, they’re often just bullet points. And you can hide a lot of sloppy thinking behind bullet points. When you have to write in complete sentences with narrative structure, it’s really hard to hide sloppy thinking. So it forces the author to be at their best, and so they’re somebody’s really their best thinking. And then you don’t have to spend a lot of time trying to tease that thinking out of the person, and you’ve got it from the very beginning. So it really saves you time in the long run.
Lex Fridman
So that part is crisp, and then the rest is messy. Crisp document, messy meeting.
So that part is crisp, and then the rest is messy. Crisp document, messy meeting.
Jeff Bezos
Yeah, so you don’t want to pretend that the discussion should be crisp. Most meetings, you’re trying to solve a really hard problem. There’s a different kind of meeting, which we call weekly business reviews or business reviews that may be weekly or monthly or daily, whatever they are. But these business review meetings, that’s usually for incremental improvement. And you’re looking at a series of metrics, every time it’s the same metrics. Those meetings can be very efficient. They can start on time and end on time.
Yeah, so you don’t want to pretend that the discussion should be crisp. Most meetings, you’re trying to solve a really hard problem. There’s a different kind of meeting, which we call weekly business reviews or business reviews that may be weekly or monthly or daily, whatever they are. But these business review meetings, that’s usually for incremental improvement. And you’re looking at a series of metrics, every time it’s the same metrics. Those meetings can be very efficient. They can start on time and end on time.
Future of humanity
Lex Fridman
So we’re about to run out of time, which is a good time to ask about the 10,000-Year Clock.
So we’re about to run out of time, which is a good time to ask about the 10,000-Year Clock.
Jeff Bezos
It’s funny.
It’s funny.
Lex Fridman
Yes, that’s what I’m known for, is the humor. Okay. Can you explain what the 10,000-Year Clock is?
Yes, that’s what I’m known for, is the humor. Okay. Can you explain what the 10,000-Year Clock is?
Jeff Bezos
Is? 10,000-Year Clock is a physical clock of monumental scale. It’s about 500 feet tall. It’s inside a mountain in west Texas at a chamber that’s about 12 feet in diameter and 500 feet tall. 10,000-Year Clock is an idea conceived by a brilliant guy named Danny Hillis way back in the ’80s. The idea is to build a clock as a symbol for long-term thinking. And you can kind of just very conceptually think of the 10,000-Year Clock as it ticks once a year, it chimes once every a hundred years, and the cuckoo comes out once every a thousand years. So it just sort of slows everything down. And it’s a completely mechanical clock. It is designed to last 10,000 years with no human intervention. So the material choices and everything else. It’s in a remote location, both to protect it, but also so that visitors have to make a pilgrimage.
Is? 10,000-Year Clock is a physical clock of monumental scale. It’s about 500 feet tall. It’s inside a mountain in west Texas at a chamber that’s about 12 feet in diameter and 500 feet tall. 10,000-Year Clock is an idea conceived by a brilliant guy named Danny Hillis way back in the ’80s. The idea is to build a clock as a symbol for long-term thinking. And you can kind of just very conceptually think of the 10,000-Year Clock as it ticks once a year, it chimes once every a hundred years, and the cuckoo comes out once every a thousand years. So it just sort of slows everything down. And it’s a completely mechanical clock. It is designed to last 10,000 years with no human intervention. So the material choices and everything else. It’s in a remote location, both to protect it, but also so that visitors have to make a pilgrimage.
The idea is that over time, and this will take hundreds of years, but over time, it will take on the patina of age, and then it will become a symbol for long-term thinking that will actually hopefully get humans to extend their thinking horizons. And in my view, that’s really important as we have become, as a species, as a civilization, more powerful. We’re really affecting the planet now. We’re really affecting each other. We have weapons of mass destruction. We have all kinds of things where we can really hurt ourselves and the problems we create can be so large. The unintended consequences of some of our actions like climate change, putting carbon in the atmosphere is a perfect example. That’s an unintended consequence of the Industrial Revolution, got a lot of benefits from it, but we’ve also got this side effect that is very detrimental.
We need to start training ourselves to think longer term. Long-term thinking is a giant lever. You can literally solve problems if you think long-term, that are impossible to solve if you think short-term. And we aren’t really good at thinking long-term. Five years is a tough timeframe for most institutions to think past. And we probably need to stretch that to 10 years and 15 years and 20 years and 25 years, and we’d do a better job for our children or our grandchildren if we could stretch those thinking horizons. And so the clock, in a way, it’s an art project, it’s a symbol. And if it ever has any power to influence people to think longer term, that won’t happen for hundreds of years, but we are going to build it now and let it accrue the patina of age.
Lex Fridman
Do you think humans will be here when the clock runs out here on earth?
Do you think humans will be here when the clock runs out here on earth?
Jeff Bezos
I think so. But the United States won’t exist. Whole civilizations rise and fall. 10,000 years is so long. No nation state has ever survived for anywhere close to 10,000 years.
I think so. But the United States won’t exist. Whole civilizations rise and fall. 10,000 years is so long. No nation state has ever survived for anywhere close to 10,000 years.
Lex Fridman
And the increasing rate of progress makes that even fantastic.
And the increasing rate of progress makes that even fantastic.
Jeff Bezos
Even less likely so. Do I think humans will be here? Yes. How will we have changed ourselves and what will we be and so on and so on? I don’t know, but I think we’ll be here.
Even less likely so. Do I think humans will be here? Yes. How will we have changed ourselves and what will we be and so on and so on? I don’t know, but I think we’ll be here.
Lex Fridman
On that grand scale, a human life feels tiny. Do you ponder your own mortality? Are you afraid of death?
On that grand scale, a human life feels tiny. Do you ponder your own mortality? Are you afraid of death?
Jeff Bezos
No. I used to be afraid of death. I did. I remember as a young person being very scared of mortality, didn’t want to think about it, and so on. And as I’ve gotten older, I’m 59 now, as I’ve gotten older, somehow that fear has sort of gone away. I would like to stay alive for as long as possible, but I’m really more focused on health span. I want to be healthy. I want that square wave. I want to be healthy, healthy, healthy, and then gone. I don’t want the long decay. And I’m curious. I want to see how things turn out. I’d like to be here. I love my family and my close friends, and I’m curious about them, and I want to see. So I have a lot of reasons to stay around, but mortality doesn’t have that effect on me that it did maybe when I was in my twenties.
No. I used to be afraid of death. I did. I remember as a young person being very scared of mortality, didn’t want to think about it, and so on. And as I’ve gotten older, I’m 59 now, as I’ve gotten older, somehow that fear has sort of gone away. I would like to stay alive for as long as possible, but I’m really more focused on health span. I want to be healthy. I want that square wave. I want to be healthy, healthy, healthy, and then gone. I don’t want the long decay. And I’m curious. I want to see how things turn out. I’d like to be here. I love my family and my close friends, and I’m curious about them, and I want to see. So I have a lot of reasons to stay around, but mortality doesn’t have that effect on me that it did maybe when I was in my twenties.
Lex Fridman
Well, Jeff, thank you for creating Amazon, one of the most incredible companies in history, and thank you for trying your best to make humans a multi-planetary species, expanding out into our solar system, maybe beyond, to meet the aliens out there. And thank you for talking today.
Well, Jeff, thank you for creating Amazon, one of the most incredible companies in history, and thank you for trying your best to make humans a multi-planetary species, expanding out into our solar system, maybe beyond, to meet the aliens out there. And thank you for talking today.
Jeff Bezos
Lex, thank you for doing your part to lengthen our attention spans. Appreciate that very much.
Lex, thank you for doing your part to lengthen our attention spans. Appreciate that very much.
Lex Fridman
I’m doing my best. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Jeff Bezos. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Jeff Bezos himself. Be stubborn on vision, but flexible on the details. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
I’m doing my best. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Jeff Bezos. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Jeff Bezos himself. Be stubborn on vision, but flexible on the details. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Lee Cronin: Controversial Nature Paper on Evolution of Life and Universe | Lex Fridman Podcast #404
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #404 with Lee Cronin.
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So your big assembly theory paper was published in Nature. Congratulations.
And then when I was pushed by a bunch of mathematicians, we came up with the correct physical explanation, which I can get to, but it’s the minimum and it’s really important. It’s the minimum. And the reason I knew the minimum was right is because we could measure it. So almost before this paper came out, we’d published papers, explain how you can measure the assembly index of molecules.
And that’s what made me realize, take a toy example, literally a toy example, take a Lego object, which is broken up of Lego blocks. So you could do exactly the same thing. In this case, the Lego blocks are naturally the smallest. They’re the atoms in the actual composite Lego architecture. But then if you maybe take a couple of blocks and put them together in a certain way, maybe they’re offset in some way, that offset is on the memory, you can use that offset again with only a penalty of one and you can then make a square, triangle and keep going.
And you remember those motifs on the chain. So you can then leap from the start with all the Lego blocks or atoms just laid out in front of you and say, “Right, I’ll take you, you, you,” connect and do the least amount of work. So it’s really like the smallest steps you can take on the graph to make the object. And so for molecules, it came relatively intuitively. And then we started to apply it to language. We’ve even started to apply it to mathematical theorems. But I’m so well out of my depth. But it looks like you can take minimum set of axioms and then start to build up mathematical architectures in the same way. And then the shortest path to get there is something interesting that I don’t yet understand.
And that becomes [inaudible 00:07:53] quite hard. For some natural product molecules, it becomes very hard. It’s not impossible, but we’re looking at the bounds on that at the moment. But as the object gets bigger it becomes really hard. But that’s the bad news. But the good news is there are shortcuts. And we might even be able to physically measure the complexity without computationally calculating it, which is kind of insane.
Now there’s some problems there. What is then the definition of the object? How many pixels? How do you break it down? And so we’re just learning all this right now.
But it’s just a new way of looking at, not just compression. What we do right now in computer science and data, one big kind of misunderstanding as assembly theory is telling you about how compressed the object is. That’s not right. It’s how much information is required on a chain of events. Because the nice thing is if, when you do compression and computer science, we’re wandering a bit here, but it’s kind of worth wandering I think, you assume you have instantaneous access to all the information in the memory. In assembly theory you say, “No, you don’t get access to that memory until you’ve done the work.” And then when you’ve done access to that memory, you can have access but not to the next one.
And this is how in assembly theory, we talk about the four universes, the assembly universe, the assembly possible, and the assembly contingent, and then the assembly observed. And they’re all scales in this commentorial universe.
Then the assembly contingent says “No, you can’t have access to the highly assembled object in the future until you’ve done the work in the past on the causal chain.” And that’s really, the really interesting shift where you go from assembly possible to assembly contingent. That is really the key thing in assembly theory that says you cannot just have instantaneous access to all those memories. You have to have done the work. Somehow the universe has to have somehow built a system that allows you to select that path rather than other paths.
And then the final thing the assembly observed is basically us saying, “Oh, these are the things we actually see. We can go backwards now and understand that they have been created by this causal process.”
So why is the shortest path important? Imagine you’ve got, I’m going to have to go chemistry for a moment, then abstract it. So imagine you’ve got a given environment that you have a budget of atoms, you’re just flinging together. And the objective of those atoms that being flung together in say, molecule A, they decompose. So molecules decompose over time. So the molecules in this environment, in this magic environment have to not die, but they do die. They have a half-life.
So the only way the molecules can get through that environment out the other side, let’s pretend the environment is a box and can go in and out without dying. And there’s just an infinite supply of atoms coming or, well, a large supply, the molecule gets built, but the molecule that is able to template itself being built and survives in the environment will basically reign supreme.
Now let’s say that molecule takes 10 steps and it is using a finite set of atoms. Now, let’s say another molecule, smart ass molecule we’ll call it, comes in and can survive in that environment and can copy itself, but it only needs five steps. The molecule that only needs five steps continued, both molecules are being destroyed, but they’re creating themselves faster they can be destroyed. You can see that the shortest path reigns supreme. So the shortest path tells us something super interesting about the minimal amount of information required to propagate that motif in time and space. And it seems to be like some kind of conservation law.
Now you start to consider two objects, you have a joint assembly space. And it’s not now, it’s a compromise between not just making A and B in the shortest path. You want to be able to make A and B in the shortest path, which might mean that A is slightly longer, compromise. So when you see slightly more nesting in the construction, when you take a given object, that can look longer. But that’s because the overall function is the object is still trying to be efficient. And this is still very hand wavy and maybe having no leg to stand on, but we think we’re getting somewhere with that.
And so I keep seeing parallels everywhere where there are complex nested systems where if you give it enough time and you introduce a bit of heterogeneity, the system readjusts and finds a new shortest path. But the shortest path isn’t fixed on just one molecule now. It’s in the actual existence of the object over time. And that object could be a city, it could be a cell, it could be a factory, but I think we’re going way beyond molecules and my competence so probably should go back to molecules, but hey.
And then there is a few variables in there that include the assembly index, the copy number which we’ll talk about. That’s an interesting, I don’t remember you talking about that. That’s an interesting addition and I think a powerful one. It has to do with what, that you can create pretty complex objects randomly, and in order to know that they’re not random, that there’s a factory involved, you need to see a bunch of them. That’s the intuition there. It’s an interesting intuition and then some normalization. What else is and-
Second point, we say that evolution works, but we don’t know how evolution got going. So biological evolution and biological selection. So for me, this seems like a simple continuum. So when I mentioned selection and evolution in the title, I think, and in the abstract, we should have maybe prefaced that and said non-biological selection and non-biological evolutions. And then that might have made it even more crystal clear. But I didn’t think that biology, evolutionary biology, should be so bold to claim ownership of selection and evolution.
And secondly, a lot of evolutionary biologists seem to dismiss the origin of life question and just say it’s obvious. And that causes a real problem scientifically because two different, when the physicists are like, ” We own the universe. The universe is good, we explain all of it, look at us.” And even biologists say, “We can explain biology.” And the poor chemists in the middle going, “But hang on.”
And this paper kind of says, “Hey, there is an interesting disconnect between physics and biology. And that’s at the point at which memories get made in chemistry through bonds. And hey, let’s look at this close and see if we can quantify it.” So yeah, I never expected the paper to get that much interest. And still, it’s only been published just over a month ago now.
So good chemistry examples, if you took some carbon and you made a chain of carbon atoms, whereas if you took some, I don’t know, some carbon, nitrogen and oxygen and made change from those, you’d start to get different reactions and rearrangements. So a chain of carbon atoms might be more resistant to falling apart under a acidic or basic conditions versus another set of molecules. So it survives in that environment. So the acid pond, the resistant molecule can get through. And then that molecule goes into another environment. So that environment now maybe being acid pond is a basic pond or maybe it’s an oxidizing pond. And so if you’ve got carbon and it goes an oxidizing pond, maybe the carbon starts to oxidize and break apart. So you go through all these kind of obstacle courses if you like, given by reality. So selection is the ability happens when object survives in an environment for some time.
And this is the thing that’s super subtle. The object has to be continually being destroyed and made by process. So it’s not just about the object now, it’s about the process and time that makes it because a rock could just stand on the mountain side for 4 billion years and nothing happened to it. And that’s not necessarily really advanced selection. So for selection to get really interesting, you need to have a turnover in time. You need to be continually creating objects, producing them, what we call discovery time. So there’s a discovery time for an object.
When that object is discovered, if it’s say a molecule that can then act on itself or the chain of events that caused itself to bolster its formation, then you go from discovery time to production time and suddenly you have more of it in the universe. So it could be a self-replicating molecule and the interaction of the molecule in the environment, in the warm little pond or in the sea or wherever in the bubble could then start to build a proto factory, the environment.
So really to answer your question, what the factory is, the factory is the environment, but it’s not very autonomous, it’s not very redundant. There’s lots of things that could go wrong. So once you get high enough up the hierarchy of networks, of interactions, something needs to happen that needs to be compressed into a smaller volume and made resistant robust because in biology, selection and evolution is robust that you have error correction built in. You have really, there’s good ways of basically making sure propagation goes on.
So really the difference between inorganic, antibiotic selection and evolution and evolution and stuff in biology is robustness the ability to propagate, the ability to survive in lots of different environments. Whereas our poor little inorganic sole molecule, whatever, just dies in lots of different environments. So there’s something super special that happens from the inorganic molecule in the environment that kills it to where you’ve got evolution and cells can survive everywhere.
And we use that and say, “Oh, there’s a hydrothermal vent. Oh, there’s a process going on. There’s molecular networks,” because the assembly equation is not only meant to identify at the higher end advanced selection, what you get, I would call in biology super advanced selection. And even, you could use the assembly equation to look for technology and God forbid we could talk about consciousness and abstraction, but let’s keep it primitive, molecules and biology. So I think the real power of the assembly equation is to say how much selection is going on in this space.
And there’s a really simple thought experiment I could do is you have a little Petri dish and on that Petri dish you put some simple food. So the assembly index of all the sugars and everything is quite low. So then, and you put a single cell of E. coli cell and then you say, “I’m going to measure the assembly in this, amount of assembly in the box.” So it’s quite low, but the rate of change of assembly, DADT will go [inaudible 00:33:47] sigmoidal as it eats all the food and the number of coli cells will replicate because they take all the food, they copy themselves, the assembly index of all the molecules goes up, up and up until the food is exhausted in the box. So now the E. coli’s stopped-
So if you go to Mars and you take a mass spec, with high enough resolution, and you can find molecules, a guide on earth, if you could find molecules, say, greater than 350 molecular weight, with more than 15 fragments, you have found artifacts that can only be produced, at least on earth, by life. And now you would say, “Oh, well, maybe the geological process.” I would argue very virulently that that is not the case.
But we can say, “Look, if you don’t like the cutoff on earth, go up higher, 30, 100, because there’s going to be a point where you can find a molecule with so many different parts, the chances of you getting a molecule that has a hundred different parts and finding a million identical copies, that’s just impossible. That could never happen in an infinite set of universes.
So the way I do it is if I say, “Here’s a bag of 10 identical molecules, let’s prove they’re identical.” You pick one out of the bag and you basically observe it, using some technique, and then you take it away and then you take another one out. If you observe it using technique, you see no differences. They’re identical. It’s really interesting to get right. Because if you take, say, two molecules, molecules can be in different vibrational rotational states. They’re moving all the time.
So in this respect, identical molecules have identical bonding. In this case, we don’t even talk about chirality, because we don’t have a chirality detector. So two identical molecules in one conception, assembly theory, basically considers both hands as being the same. But, of course, they’re not, they’re different. As soon as you have a chiral distinguisher to detect the left and the right hand, they become different. And so, it’s to do with the detection system that you have and the resolution.
If you drill down a little bit, you could drill down a bit into soil that’s billions of years old. Then I would put in some solvent, water, alcohol, or something, or take a scoop, make it volatile, put it into the mass spectrometer and just try and detect high complexity, high abundant molecules. And if you get them, hey, presto, you can have evidence of life. Wouldn’t that then be great if you could say, “Okay, we’ve found evidence of life, now we want to keep the life meter, keep searching for more and more complexity,” until you actually find living cells. And you can get those new living cells and then you could bring them back to earth or you could try and sequence them. You could see that they have different DNA and proteins.
And then the further up in molecular weight range for the mass spec, and the number of bands, you go up and up and up from the dead, interesting, interesting, over the threshold, oh my gosh, earth life, and then right up to the batshit crazy, this is definitely alien intelligence that’s made this life, right? You could almost go all the way there. Same in the infrared. And pretty simple.
The thing that is really problematical is that for many years, decades, what people have done, and I can’t blame them, is they’ve rather, they’ve been obsessing about small biomarkers that we find on earth, amino acids, like single amino acids or evidence of small molecules and these things, and looking for those while I’m looking for complexity. The beautiful thing about this is you can look for complexity without earth chemistry bias or earth biology bias. So assembly theory is just a way of saying, hey, complexity in abundance is evidence of selection. That’s how our universal life meter will work.
Same with some minerals, but we can come back to that. So basically what you do, we’ve got a whole loads of samples, inorganic ones, we got a load of, we got Scotch whiskey and also got-
And one of the computational complexity people, it was just throwing, yeah… He’s very vigorous in his disagreement of assembly theory, was just saying, “You don’t know what you’re doing. Even beer is more complicated than human.” What he didn’t realize is that it’s not beer, per se, it’s taking the yeast extract, taking the extract, breaking the cells, extracting the molecules, and just looking at the profile of the molecules, see if there’s anything over the threshold. And we also put in a really complex molecule, Taxol.
So we took all of these, but also NASA gave us, I think, five samples, and they wouldn’t tell us what they are. They said, “No, we don’t believe you’re going to get this to work.” And they really gave us some super complex samples. And they gave us two fossils, one that was a million years old and one was at 10,000 years old, something from Antarctica, seabed. They gave us some Murchison and meteorite, and a few others. Put them through the system. So we took all the samples, treat them all identically, put them into mass spec, fragmented them, counted.
And in this case, implicit in the measurement was we, in mass spec, you only detect peaks when you’ve got more than, say, let’s say 10,000 identical molecules. So the copy number’s already baked in, but wasn’t quantified, which is super important there. This was in the first paper. Because I was like, it’s abundant, of course.
And when you then took it all out, we found that the biological samples gave you molecules that had an assembly index greater than 15. And all the abiotic samples were less than 15. And then we took the NASA samples and we looked at the ones that were more than 15, less than 15, and we gave them back to NASA, and they’re like, “Oh, gosh. Yep, dead, living, dead, living. You got it.” And that’s what we found on earth.
What we did is we were able to fingerprint… So we took a load of random samples from all of biology and we used mass spectrometry. And what we did now is not just look for individual molecules, but we looked for coexisting molecules where they had to look at their joint assembly space. And we were able to cut them apart and undergo recursion in the mass spec and infer some relationships. And we’re able to recapitulate the tree of life using mass spectroscopy, no sequencing and no drawing.
Whereas, some animals are lazy, they can just go eat the fungi, and they don’t need to make very much. And so, what you do is you look at the, so you take, I don’t know, the fingerprint, maybe the top number of high molecular weight molecules you find in the sample, you fragment them to get their assembly indices, and then what you can do is you can infer common origins of molecules. You can do a molecular… When the reverse engineering of the assembly space, you can infer common roots and look at what’s called the joint assembly space.
But let’s translate that into the experiment. Take a sample, bung it in the mass spec, take the top, say, 10 molecules, fragment them, and that gives you one fingerprint. Then you do it for another sample, you get another fingerprint. Now the question is you say, “Hey, are these samples the same or different?” And that’s what we’ve been able to do and by basically looking at the assembly space that these molecules create. Without any knowledge of assembly theory, you are unable to do it. With a knowledge of assembly theory, you can reconstruct the tree.
But what life also does is it enriches. As you get older, the amount of carbon-13 in you goes up, because of the way the bonding is in carbon-13. So it has a slightly different strength, bond strength, than you. It’s called a kinetic isotope effect. So you can literally date how old you are or when you stop metabolizing. So you could date someone’s… how old they are, I think. I’m making this up, this might be right, but I think it’s roughly right. The amount of carbon-13 you have in you, you can estimate how old you are.
The second thing was the fact that physicists, the physicists were actually really polite, really nice about it. But they just said, “Huh, we’re not really sure about the initial conditions thing. But this is a really big debate that we should certainly get into, because the emergence of life was not encoded in the initial conditions of the universe.” And I think assembly theory shows why it can’t be. I’ll say that-
And everyone’s saying, “How dare, how dare you be so grandiose?” I’m like, “No, no, no. This is not hype. We’re not saying we’ve invented some, I don’t know, we’ve discovered a alien in a closet somewhere, just for hype. We genuinely mean this to genuinely have the impact or asked the question. And the way people jumped on that was a really bad precedent for young people who want to actually do something new.
Because this makes a bold claim, and the chances are that it’s not correct. But what I wanted to do is a couple of things. Is I wanted to make a bold claim that was precise and testable and correctable. Not another wooly information-in-biology argument, information-churring machine, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. A concrete series of statements that can be falsified and explored, and either the theory could be destroyed or built upon.
So this kind of plucked two strings at once. It plucked the there is something interesting that biology are, we can see around this, but we haven’t quantified yet. And what this is, is the first stab at quantifying that, so the fact that people said “This is obvious.” But if it’s obvious, why have you not done it?
Now if you think about how embryos develop, you go all the way back, those cells undergo differentiation on a causal way that’s biomechanically a feedback between the genetics and biomechanics. I think we can use assembly theory to apply to tissue types. We can even apply it to different cell disease types. So that’s what we’re doing next. But we are trying to walk… The thing is, I’m trying to, I want a leap ahead to go, whoa, we apply it to culture. Clearly you can apply it to memes and culture. And we’ve also applied to assembly theory to CA’s and not as you think…
But it does show you can apply it at a higher scale. So what do we need to do to apply assembly theory to things? We need to agree, there’s a common set of building blocks. So in a cell, well, in a multicellular creature, you need to look back in time. So there is the initial cell, which the creature is fertilized and then starts to grow and then there is cell differentiation. And you have to then make that causal chain both on those. So that requires development of the organism in time. Or if you look at the cell surfaces and the cell types, they’ve got different features on the cell walls and inside the cell. So we’re building up, but obviously I want a leap to things like emoticons, language, mathematical theorems.
And again, it’s not just about compression, it is about understanding how you can make the most of the architecture you’ve already built. And I think this is something beautiful that evolution does. We are reusing those architectures. We can’t just abandon our evolutionary history. And if you don’t want to abandon your evolutionary history and you know that evolution has been happening, then assembly theory works.
And I think that’s a key comment I want to make is that assembly theory is great for understanding when evolution has been used. The next jump is when we go to technology, because of course, if you take the M3 processor… I want to buy, I haven’t bought one yet. I can’t justify it, but I want it at some point. The M3 processor arguably is there’s quite a lot of features, a quite large number. The M2 came before it, then the M1 all the way back, you can apply assembly theory to microprocessor architecture. It doesn’t take a huge leap to see that.
So Kolmogorov complexity, you can approximate Kolmogorov complexity, but it’s not really telling you very much about the actual… It’s really telling you about your dataset, compression of your dataset.
The shortest path is inferred from the object. That is the worst case scenario if you have no machine to make it. So that tells you about the depth of that object in time. And so what assembly theory allows you to do is without considering any other circumstances, to say from this object, how deep is this object in time if we just treat the object as itself without any other constraints? And that’s super powerful because the shortest path then allows you to say, “Oh, this object wasn’t just created randomly. There was a process.” And so assembly theory is not meant to one up AIT or to ignore the factory. It’s just to say, “Hey, there was a factory and how big was that factory? And how deep in time is it?”
You flip the problem 180 and focus on the molecule evolution rather than the protein. And so you can guess in the future what might happen. So you rather than having to consider all possible molecules, you know where to focus. And that’s the same thing if you’re looking at in assembly spaces for an object where you don’t know the entire history, but you know that in the history of this object, it’s not going to have some other motif there that it doesn’t apply. It doesn’t appear in the past.
Now what are these reactions? So these reactions are constrained by the following. They’re constrained by the fact they’re on planet Earth, 1G, 298 Kelvin, 1 Bar. So these are constraints. They’re also constrained by the chemical composition of earth, oxygen availability, all this stuff. And that then allows us to focus in our chemistry. So when a chemist does a reaction, that’s a really nice compressed shorthand for constraint application, glass flask, pure reagent, temperature, pressure, boom, boom, boom, control, control control, control control.
So of course we have bond energies. So the bond energies are kind of intrinsic in a vacuum. So the bond energy, you have to have a bond. And so for assembly theory to work, you have to have a bond, which means that bond has to give the molecule a half life. So you’re probably going to find later on that some bonds are weaker and that you are going to miss in mass spectrum, when you look at the assembly of some molecules, you’re going to miscount the assembly of the molecule. It falls apart too quickly because the bonds just form. But you can solve that with looking at infrared.
So when people think about the probability, they’re kind of misunderstanding. Assembly theory says nothing about the chemistry because chemistry is chemistry and their constraints are put in by biology. There was no chemist on the origin of life unless you believe in the chemist in the sky… And it’s like Santa Claus, they had a lot of work to do, but chemical reactions do not exist and the constraints that allow chemical transformations to occur do exist.
I said, “Well look, if we want to explain this to people, there’s a real challenge.” And so Sarah and I went through the, I think it was actually 160 versions of the paper, but basically we got to version 40 or something. We said, “Right, zero it start again.” So we wrote the whole paper again. We knew the entire…
And long story, probably a boring story, but in this case it went out to review, the comments came back and the comments were incredibly, they were very deep comments from all the reviewers. But the nice thing was the reviewers were kind of very critical, but not dismissive. They were like, “Oh, really? Explain this, explain this, explain this, explain this.”
Sorry, give me a second. Silly, never get emotional about papers normally, but I think what we do, you just compressed five years of angst from this.
So we submitted the paper and then when it was almost accepted, the mass spec one and it was astrobiologists said, great, a mass spectroscopist said great. And the chemist went nonsense, biggest pile of nonsense ever. Fraud. And I was like, “But why fraud?” And they just said, “Just because.” I was like well… I could not convince the editor in this case. The editor was just so pissed off. They see it as a, you’re wasting my time. And I would not give up. I wrote, I went and dissected all the parts. And I think, although, I mean I got upset about, it was kind of embarrassing actually, but I guess…
And all I did is I just kept knocking it down bit by bit, by bit, by bit by bit. It was ultimately rejected and it got published elsewhere. And then the actual experimental data, so in this paper, the experimental justification was already published. So when we did this one and we went through the versions and then we sent it in and in the end it just got accepted. We were like, well, that’s kind of cool, right? This is kind of like some days…
Sorry, the first author was like, “I can’t believe it got accepted.” I was like, “Nor am I, but it’s great. It’s good.” And then when the paper was published, I was not expecting the backlash. I was expecting computational. Well, no, actually I was just expecting one person who’d been trolling me for a while about it just to carry on trolling, but I didn’t expect the backlash. And then I wrote to the editor and apologized and the editor was like, “What are you apologizing for? It was a great paper. Of course it’s going to get backlash. You said some controversial stuff, but it’s awesome.”
And the fact that this paper has been so discussed, for me is a dream come true, it doesn’t get better than that. If you can’t accept a few people hating it… And the nice thing is, the thing that really makes me happy is that no one has attacked the actual physical content.
You can measure the assembly index, you can measure selection now. So either that’s right or it’s… Well, either that’s helpful or unhelpful. If it’s unhelpful, this paper will sink down and no one will use it again. If it’s helpful, it’ll help people scaffold on it and we’ll start to converge for a new paradigm. So I think that that’s the thing that I wanted to see my colleagues, authors, collaborators and people were like, you’ve just published this paper. You’re a chemist. Why have you done this? Who are you to be doing evolutionary theory? Well, I don’t know. I mean, sorry, did I need to…
And then I just basically didn’t do well in any of the tests, and I went down and down and down and down and then I was like, “Huh, this is really embarrassing. I really like maths and everyone says I can’t do it. I really like physics and chemistry and science and people say you can’t read and write.” And so I found myself in a learning difficulties class at the end of primary school and the beginning of secondary school. In the UK, secondary school is 11, 12 years old. And I remember being put in the remedial class. And the remedial class was basically full of three types of people. There were people quite violent and there were people who couldn’t speak English and there were people that really had learning difficulties. So the one thing I can objectively remember was… I could read. I liked reading. I read a lot. But something in me, I’m a bit of a rebel. I refused to read what I was told to read and I found it difficult to read individual words in the way they were told.
But anyway, I got caught one day teaching someone else to read and they said, “Okay, we don’t understand this.” I’d always known I wanted to be a scientist, but I didn’t really know what that meant and I realized you had to go to university and I thought, “I can just go to university. They take curious people.” “No, no, no need to have these. You have to be able to enter these exams to get this grade point average, and the fact is, the exams you’ve been entered into, you are just going to get C, D or E.” You can’t even get A, B or C. These are the UK GCSEs. I was like, ” Oh, shit,” and I said, “Can you just put me into the higher exams?” They said, “No, no, you’re going to fail. There’s no chance.” So my father intervened and said, “Just let him go in the exams,” and they said, “He’s definitely going to fail. It’s a waste of time, waste of money,” and he said, “What if we paid?” So they said, “Okay,” so you didn’t actually have to pay. You only had to pay if I failed.
So I took the exams and passed them, fortunately. I didn’t get the top grades, but I got into A Levels. But then that also limited what I could do at A Levels. I wasn’t allowed to do A Level maths.
“It’s wrong.” “Okay, why is it wrong?” Say, “Oh, your equation’s incorrect for this or your method is wrong.” So what I try and do is get enough criticism from people to then triangulate and go back. And I’ve been very fortunate in my life that I’ve got great colleagues, great collaborators, funders, mentors, and people that will take the time to say, “You are wrong because.” And then what I have to do is integrate the wrongness and go, “Oh, cool, maybe I can fix that.” And I think criticism is really good. People have a go at me because I’m really critical. But I’m not criticizing you as a person. I’m just criticizing the idea and trying to make it better and say, “What about this?”
And sometimes my filters are truncated in some ways. I’m just like, “That’s wrong, that’s wrong, that’s wrong. Why’d you do this?” And people are like, “Oh my God, you just told me, you destroyed my life’s work.” I’m like, “Relax. No.” I’m just like, “Let’s make it better.” And I think that we don’t do that enough because we are either personally critical, which isn’t helpful or we don’t give any criticism at all because we’re too scared.
That we are going to know that the universe as it stands, the present, the way the present builds the future is so big, the universe can’t ever contain the future. And this is a really interesting thing. I think Max Tegmark has this mathematical universe. He says the universe is like a block universe, and I apologize to Max if I’m getting it wrong, but people think you can just move. You have the stat, you have the initial conditions, and you can run the universe right to the end and go backwards and forwards in that universe. That is not correct.
But when the object is finite and it can’t store its own coordinates, what do you do? So in principle, if a finite object cannot be specified to infinite precision, in principle, the initial conditions don’t apply.
The universe is intrinsically too big and that’s why time exists. It’s non-deterministic. Looking back into the past, you can use logical arguments because you can say, “Was it true or false?” You already know. But this is the fact we are unable to predict the future with the precision is not evidence of lack of knowledge. It’s evidence the universe is generating new things.
And this is why I really hate the idea of the Boltzmann brain. The Boltzmann brain makes me super, like everyone’s having a free lunch. It’s like saying, “Let’s break all the laws of physics.” So a Boltzmann brain is this idea that in a long enough universe, a brain will just emerge in the universe as conscious. And that neglects the causal chain of evolution that required to produce that brain. And this is where the computational argument really falls down because a computationalist could say,” I can calculate probability of a Boltzmann brain.” And they’ll give you a probability. But I can calculate probability of a Boltzmann brain. Zero.
Because I think the same mechanism that gives us a factory gives us novelty. And I think that is why I’m so deeply hung up on time. Of course I’m wrong, but how wrong? And I think that life opens up that combinatorial space in a way that our current laws of physics, although as contrived in a deterministic initial condition universe even with the get out of the multiverse, David Deutsch style, which I love by the way, but I don’t think is correct, but it’s really beautiful.
Taxol is unique to Earth. There’s no taxol elsewhere in the universe, and taxol was not decided by the initial conditions. It was decided by this interplay between the … So, the past simply is embedded in the present. It gives some features. But why the past doesn’t map to the future one-to-one is because the universe is too big to contain itself. That gives space for creativity, and novelty, and some things which are unpredictable.
It’s fascinating to me that for pi, there is a formula where you can go to the millionth decimal place of pi and read out the number without having to go there. But there are some numbers where you can’t do that, and you have to just crank through. Whether it’s Wolframian computational irreducibility or some other thing, well, it doesn’t matter. But these CAs, that complexity, is that just complexity, or a number that is basically you’re mining that number in time? Is that just a display screen for that number, that function?
CAs are mining novelty in the future by iteration, right? And you’re like, ” Oh, that’s great. That’s great.” You didn’t predict it. Some rules you can predict what’s going to happen, and other rules you can’t. So for me, if anything, CAs are evidence that the universe is too big to contain itself, because otherwise you’d know what the rules are going to do forevermore.
The reason why I think it’s nonsensical … And I don’t think there isn’t things we should do and be very worried about. There are things we need to worry about right now, what AI are doing. Whether it’s fake data, fake users. I want authentic people, authentic data. I don’t want everything to be faked, and I think it’s a really big problem, and I absolutely want to go on the record to say I really worry about that. What I’m not worried about is that some fictitious entity is going to turn us all to paperclips or detonate nuclear bombs, or maybe, I don’t know, anything you can think of.
Why is this? I’ll take a very simple series of logical arguments, and the AI doomers do not have the correct epistemology. They do not understand what knowledge is. And until we understand what knowledge is, they’re not going to get anywhere because they’re applying things falsely. So, let me give you a very simple argument.
People talk about the probability, “P(doom)”, of AI. We can work out the probability of an asteroid hitting the planet. Why? Because it’s happened before. We know the mechanism. We know that there’s a gravity well, or that spacetime is bent and stuff falls in. We don’t know the probability of AGI because we have no mechanism. So, let me give you another one, which is like, “I’m really worried about AG.” What’s AG? AG is anti-gravity. “One day we could wake up and anti-gravity is discovered, we’re all going to die, the atmosphere is going to float away, we’re going to float away, we’re all doomed.”
What is the probability of AG? We don’t know because there’s no mechanism for AG. Do we worry about it? No, and I don’t understand the current reason for certain people in certain areas to be generating this nonsense. I think they’re not doing it maliciously. I think we’re observing the emergence of new religions, how religions come, because religions are about some controls.
You’ve got the optimist saying, “AI is going to cure us all,” and, “AI is going to kill us all.” What’s the reality? Well, we don’t have AI. We have really powerful machine learning tools and they will allow us to do interesting things, and we need to be careful about how we use those tools in terms of manipulating human beings and faking stuff. Right?
So, the idea there is that if you have a being that’s 10x smarter than humans, we’re not going to be able to predict what that being is going to be able to do, especially if it has the power to hurt humans. Which, you can imagine a lot of trajectories in which the more benefit AI systems give, the more control we give to those AI systems over our power grid, over our nuclear weapons, or weapons of any sort. And then it’s hard to know what an ultra-intelligence system would be able to do in that case. You don’t find that convincing?
The decision-making ability comes from human beings. We have no understanding of how humans make decisions. We’ve just been discussing free will for the last half an hour, right? We don’t even know what that is. So, the intention, I totally agree with you, people who intend to do bad things can do bad things and we should not let that risk go. That’s totally here and now. I do not want that to happen, and I’m happy to be regulated to make sure that systems I generate, whether they’re computer systems, or … I’m working on a new project called “Chem Machina”.
When people play chess computers, they don’t expect to win now, right? The chess computer is very good at chess. That doesn’t mean it’s super-intelligent. So, I think that super-intelligence, and I think even Nick Bostrom is pulling back on this now, because he invented this … So, I see this a lot. When did I see it first happen? Eric Drexler, nanotechnology. Atomically precise machines. He came up with a world where we had these atom cogs everywhere and we were going to make self-replicating nanobots.
Not possible. Why? Because there’s no resources to build these self-replicating nanobots. You can’t get the precision. It doesn’t work. It was a major category error in taking engineering principles down to the molecular level. The only functioning nanomolecular technology we know is produced by evolution. There.
So, now let’s go forward to AGI. What is AGI? We don’t know. It’s super, it can do this, or humans can’t think. I would argue the only AGIs that exist in the universe are produced by evolution. And sure, we may be able to make our working memory better. We might be able to do more things. The human brain is the most compact computing unit in the universe. It uses 20 watts, uses a really limited volume. It’s not like a ChatGPT cluster which has to have thousands of watts, and a model that’s generated, and it has to be corrected by human beings. You are autonomous and embodied intelligence.
So, I think that there are so many levels that we’re missing out, we’ve just kind of went, “Oh, we’ve discovered fire. Oh gosh, the planet’s just going to burn one day randomly.” I just don’t understand that leap. There are bigger problems we need to worry about. So, what is the motivation? Why are these people, and let’s assume they’re earnest, have this conviction? Well, I think they’re making leaps and they’re trapped in a virtual reality that isn’t reality.
But there is a lot of concerns with super-intelligent systems, very capable systems. I think when you hear the word “super-intelligent”, you’re hearing, “It’s smarter than humans in every way that humans are smart.” But the paperclip manufacturing system doesn’t need to be smart in every way. It just needs to be smart in a set of specific ways. And the more capable the AI systems become, the more you could see us giving them control over, like I said, our power grid, a lot of aspects of human life. And then that means they’ll be able to do more and more damage when there’s unintended consequences that come to life.
I think that what happens in evolution, it’s really: Why has a killer virus not killed all life on Earth? Well, what happens is, sure, superkiller viruses that kill the ribosome have emerged. But you know what happens? They nuke a small space because they can’t propagate. They all die. So, there’s this interplay between evolution and propagation, right? And death. So …
Now, I guess what I’m trying to say is when people talk about doom, and when you ask them for the mechanism, they just make something up. In this case, I’m with Yann LeCun. I think you put out a very good point about trying to regulate jet engines before we’ve even invented them. And I think that’s what I’m saying.
I’m not saying we should … I just don’t understand why these guys are going around literally making stuff up about us all dying, when basically we need to actually really focus on … Now, let’s say there’s some actors that are earnest. Let’s say Yudkowsky is being earnest and he really cares. But he loves it. He goes, “Da, da, da, and then you’re all going to die.” It’s like, why don’t we try and do the same thing and say, “You could do this, and then you’re all going to be happy forever after”?
For example, I do believe we’re not properly concerned about the threat of nuclear weapons currently. It just seems like people have forgotten that that’s a thing, and there’s a war in Ukraine with a nuclear power involved. There’s nuclear powers throughout the world, and it just feels like war in the brink of a potential world war to a percentage that I don’t think people are properly calibrating in their head. We’re all thinking it’s a Twitter battle as opposed to actual threat.
So, it’s nice to have that kind of level of concern. But to me, when I hear AI doomers, what I’m imagining is with unintended consequences a potential situation where let’s say 5% of the world suffers deeply because of a mistake made, of unintended consequences. I don’t want to imagine the entirety of human civilization dying, but there could be a lot of suffering if this is done poorly.
When it comes to nuclear weapons, I grew up in the ’70s and ’80s where there was nuclear doom and a lot of adults really had existential threat, almost as bad as now with AI doom. They were really worried. There were some great … Well, not great. There were some horrific documentaries. I think there was one called Threads that was generated in the UK, which, it was terrible. It was so scary.
And I think that the correct thing to do is obviously get rid of nuclear weapons, but let’s think about unintended consequences. We’ve got rid of … This is going to be such a non sequitur. We got rid of all the sulfur particles in the atmosphere, right? All the soot. And what’s happened in the last couple of years is global warming has accelerated because we’ve cleaned up the atmosphere too much. So …
But right now, what about certain nations that are being exploited for their natural resources in the future for a short-term gain because we don’t want to generate knowledge? So, if everybody had an equal doomsday switch, I predict the quality of life of the average human will go up faster. I am an optimist, and I believe that humanity is going to get better and better and better, that we’re going to eliminate more problems. But I think, yeah, let’s-
So, what I would like to do is to say, “Well, hey, hang on. What is it about the brain?” So, the brain has this incredible connectivity, and it has the ability to … As I said earlier about my nephew, I went from “Bill” to “Billy” and he went, “All right, Leroy.” How did he make that leap? That he was able to basically without any training … I extended his name in a way that he doesn’t like. He wants to be called Bill. He went back and said, “You like to be called Lee? I’m going to call you Leroy.”
So, human beings have a brilliant ability, or intelligent beings appear to have a brilliant ability to integrate across all domains all at once, and to synthesize something which allows us to generate knowledge. And becoming Turing-complete on our own, although AIs are built and Turing-complete things, their thinking is not Turing-complete in that they are not able to build universal explanations. And that lack of universal explanation means that they’re just-
It never will produce anything out with the dataset because you mine the past. The thing that I’m getting to is I think that actually current machine learning technologies might actually help reveal why time is fundamental. It’s like kind of insane. Because they tell you about what’s happened in the past, but they can never help you understand what’s happening in the future without training examples. Sure, if that thing happens again. So let’s think about what large language models are doing. We have all the internet as we know it, language, but also they’re doing something else. We having human beings correcting it all the time. Those models are being corrected,
I think the way you can do it is this, is that you come up with a theory, an explanation, inspiration comes from out, and then you then test that, and then you see that’s going towards the truth. And human beings are very good at doing that. And the transition between philosophy, mathematics, physics and natural sciences. And I think that we can see that. Where I get confused is why people misappropriate the term artificial intelligence to say, “Hey, there’s something else going on here.” Because I think you and I both agree, machine learning’s really good, it’s only going to get better. We’re going to get happier with the outcome. But why would you ever think the model is thinking or reasoning? Reasoning requires intention. And the intention, if the model isn’t reasoning, the intentions come from the prompter. And the intention has come from the person who programmed it to do it.
And so what we built was a system that you literally could give it a, let’s say you could take a protein that has a particular active site or a cup with a certain hole in it. You pour noise into it and with A GPT you turn the noise into electron density. And then in this case it hallucinates, like all of them do. But then hallucinations are good because it means I don’t have to train on such a huge dataset, because these data sets are very expensive. How do you produce it? So go back a step. So you’ve got all these molecules in this dataset, but what you’ve literally done is a quantum mechanical calculation. We produce electron densities for each molecule. So you say, oh, this representation of this molecule has these electron densities associated with it, so you know what the representation is and you train the neural network to know what electron density is.
So then you give it an unknown pocket. You pour in noise and you say, right, produce me electron density, it produces electron density that doesn’t look ridiculous. And what we did in this case is we produce electron density that maximizes the electrostatic potential, so the stickiness, but minimizes what we call the steric hindrance. So the overlaps, so it’s repulsive. So make the perfect fit. And then we then use kind of like a ChatGPT type thing to turn that electron density into what’s called a smile. A smile string is a way of representing a molecule in letters. And then we can then-
Because it just basically… This is a case where interpolation extrapolation worked relatively well. And we were able to generate the really good molecules. And then what we were able to do here is, and this is a really good point and what I was trying to say earlier, that we were able to generate new molecules, from the known set, that would bind to the host. So a new guest would bind. Were these truly novel? Not really because they were constrained by the host. Were they new to us? Yes. So I do, well understand… I can concede that machine learning systems, artificial intelligence systems can generate new entities, but how novel are they? It remains to be seen.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:15 – Assembly theory paper
- 21:45 – Assembly equation
- 34:57 – Discovering alien life
- 53:16 – Evolution of life on Earth
- 1:01:12 – Response to criticism
- 1:18:50 – Kolmogorov complexity
- 1:30:40 – Nature review process
- 1:51:34 – Time and free will
- 1:57:59 – Communication with aliens
- 2:19:57 – Cellular automata
- 2:24:26 – AGI
- 2:41:15 – Nuclear weapons
- 2:47:00 – Chem Machina
- 2:59:54 – GPT for electron density
- 3:09:24 – God
Introduction
Lee Cronin
Every star in the sky probably has planets and life is probably emerging on these planets. But I think the commentorial space associated with these planets is so different. Our causal cones are never going to overlap or not easily. And this is the thing that makes me sad about alien life, why we have to create alien life in the lab as quickly as possible because I don’t know if we are going to be able to build architectures that will intersect with alien intelligence architectures.
Every star in the sky probably has planets and life is probably emerging on these planets. But I think the commentorial space associated with these planets is so different. Our causal cones are never going to overlap or not easily. And this is the thing that makes me sad about alien life, why we have to create alien life in the lab as quickly as possible because I don’t know if we are going to be able to build architectures that will intersect with alien intelligence architectures.
Lex Fridman
Intersect, you don’t mean in time or space-
Intersect, you don’t mean in time or space-
Lee Cronin
Time and the ability to communicate.
Time and the ability to communicate.
Lex Fridman
The ability to communicate.
The ability to communicate.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. My biggest fear in a way is that life is everywhere, but we’ve become infinitely more lonely because of our scaffolding in that commentorial space.
Yeah. My biggest fear in a way is that life is everywhere, but we’ve become infinitely more lonely because of our scaffolding in that commentorial space.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Lee Cronin, his third time in this podcast. He’s a chemist from University of Glasgow who is one of the most fascinating, brilliant and fun to talk to scientists I’ve ever had the pleasure of getting to know. This is the Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Lee Cronin.
The following is a conversation with Lee Cronin, his third time in this podcast. He’s a chemist from University of Glasgow who is one of the most fascinating, brilliant and fun to talk to scientists I’ve ever had the pleasure of getting to know. This is the Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Lee Cronin.
Assembly theory paper
So your big assembly theory paper was published in Nature. Congratulations.
Lee Cronin
Thanks.
Thanks.
Lex Fridman
It created, I think it’s fair to say, a lot of controversy, but also a lot of interesting discussion. So maybe I can try to summarize assembly theory and you tell me if I’m wrong.
It created, I think it’s fair to say, a lot of controversy, but also a lot of interesting discussion. So maybe I can try to summarize assembly theory and you tell me if I’m wrong.
Lee Cronin
Go for it.
Go for it.
Lex Fridman
So assembly theory says that if we look at any object in the universe, any object, that we can quantify how complex it is by trying to find the number of steps it took to create it. And also we can determine if it was built by a process akin to evolution by looking at how many copies of the object there are.
So assembly theory says that if we look at any object in the universe, any object, that we can quantify how complex it is by trying to find the number of steps it took to create it. And also we can determine if it was built by a process akin to evolution by looking at how many copies of the object there are.
Lee Cronin
Yep. That’s spot on. Yep.
Yep. That’s spot on. Yep.
Lex Fridman
Spot on.
Spot on.
Lee Cronin
Spot on.
Spot on.
Lex Fridman
I was not expecting that. Okay, so let’s go through definitions. So there’s a central equation I’d love to talk about, but definition wise, what is an object?
I was not expecting that. Okay, so let’s go through definitions. So there’s a central equation I’d love to talk about, but definition wise, what is an object?
Lee Cronin
Yeah, an object. So if I’m going to try to be as meticulous as possible, objects need to be finite and they need to be decomposable into sub-units. All human made artifacts are objects. Is a planet an object? Probably yes, if you scale out. So an object is finite and accountable and decomposable, I suppose, mathematically. But yeah, I still wake up some days and go to think to myself, what is an object? Because it’s a non-trivial question.
Yeah, an object. So if I’m going to try to be as meticulous as possible, objects need to be finite and they need to be decomposable into sub-units. All human made artifacts are objects. Is a planet an object? Probably yes, if you scale out. So an object is finite and accountable and decomposable, I suppose, mathematically. But yeah, I still wake up some days and go to think to myself, what is an object? Because it’s a non-trivial question.
Lex Fridman
Persists over time, I’m quoting from the paper here. An object is finite, is distinguishable. I’m sure that’s a weird adjective, distinguishable.
Persists over time, I’m quoting from the paper here. An object is finite, is distinguishable. I’m sure that’s a weird adjective, distinguishable.
Lee Cronin
We’ve had so many people help offering to rewrite the paper after it came out. You wouldn’t believe it’s so funny.
We’ve had so many people help offering to rewrite the paper after it came out. You wouldn’t believe it’s so funny.
Lex Fridman
Persists over time. And is breakable such that the set of constraints to construct it from elementary building blocks is quantifiable, such that the set of constraints to construct it from elementary building blocks is quantifiable.
Persists over time. And is breakable such that the set of constraints to construct it from elementary building blocks is quantifiable, such that the set of constraints to construct it from elementary building blocks is quantifiable.
Lee Cronin
The history is in the objects. It’s kind of cool, right?
The history is in the objects. It’s kind of cool, right?
Lex Fridman
Okay. So what defines the object is its history or memory, whichever is the sexier word.
Okay. So what defines the object is its history or memory, whichever is the sexier word.
Lee Cronin
I’m happy with both depending on the day.
I’m happy with both depending on the day.
Lex Fridman
Okay, so the set of steps it took to create the object. So there’s a sense in which every object in the universe has a history. And that is part of the thing that is used to describe its complexity. How complicated it is. Okay, what is an assembly index?
Okay, so the set of steps it took to create the object. So there’s a sense in which every object in the universe has a history. And that is part of the thing that is used to describe its complexity. How complicated it is. Okay, what is an assembly index?
Lee Cronin
So the assembly index, if you’re to take the object apart and be super lazy about it or minimal say ’cause it’s like you’ve got a really short-term memory. So what you do is you lay all the parts on the path and you find the minimum number of steps you take on the path to add the parts together to reproduce the object. And that minimum number is the assembly index. It’s minimum bound. And it was always my intuition, the minimum bound and assembly theory was really important that I only worked out why a few weeks ago, which is kind of funny ’cause I was just like, “No, this is sacrosanct. I don’t know why, it’ll come to me one day.”
So the assembly index, if you’re to take the object apart and be super lazy about it or minimal say ’cause it’s like you’ve got a really short-term memory. So what you do is you lay all the parts on the path and you find the minimum number of steps you take on the path to add the parts together to reproduce the object. And that minimum number is the assembly index. It’s minimum bound. And it was always my intuition, the minimum bound and assembly theory was really important that I only worked out why a few weeks ago, which is kind of funny ’cause I was just like, “No, this is sacrosanct. I don’t know why, it’ll come to me one day.”
And then when I was pushed by a bunch of mathematicians, we came up with the correct physical explanation, which I can get to, but it’s the minimum and it’s really important. It’s the minimum. And the reason I knew the minimum was right is because we could measure it. So almost before this paper came out, we’d published papers, explain how you can measure the assembly index of molecules.
Lex Fridman
Okay, so that’s not so trivial to figure out. So when you look at an object, we could say a molecule, we could say object more generally. To figure out the minimum number of steps it takes to create that object, that doesn’t seem like a trivial thing to do.
Okay, so that’s not so trivial to figure out. So when you look at an object, we could say a molecule, we could say object more generally. To figure out the minimum number of steps it takes to create that object, that doesn’t seem like a trivial thing to do.
Lee Cronin
So with molecules, it is not trivial, but it is possible because what you can do and because I’m a chemist, so I’m kind of like I see the lens of the world for just chemistry. I break the molecule apart and break bonds. And if you take a molecule and you break it all apart, you have a bunch of atoms and then you say, “Okay, I’m going to then take the atoms and form bonds and go up the chain of events to make the molecule.”
So with molecules, it is not trivial, but it is possible because what you can do and because I’m a chemist, so I’m kind of like I see the lens of the world for just chemistry. I break the molecule apart and break bonds. And if you take a molecule and you break it all apart, you have a bunch of atoms and then you say, “Okay, I’m going to then take the atoms and form bonds and go up the chain of events to make the molecule.”
And that’s what made me realize, take a toy example, literally a toy example, take a Lego object, which is broken up of Lego blocks. So you could do exactly the same thing. In this case, the Lego blocks are naturally the smallest. They’re the atoms in the actual composite Lego architecture. But then if you maybe take a couple of blocks and put them together in a certain way, maybe they’re offset in some way, that offset is on the memory, you can use that offset again with only a penalty of one and you can then make a square, triangle and keep going.
And you remember those motifs on the chain. So you can then leap from the start with all the Lego blocks or atoms just laid out in front of you and say, “Right, I’ll take you, you, you,” connect and do the least amount of work. So it’s really like the smallest steps you can take on the graph to make the object. And so for molecules, it came relatively intuitively. And then we started to apply it to language. We’ve even started to apply it to mathematical theorems. But I’m so well out of my depth. But it looks like you can take minimum set of axioms and then start to build up mathematical architectures in the same way. And then the shortest path to get there is something interesting that I don’t yet understand.
Lex Fridman
So what’s the computational complexity of figuring out the shortest path with molecules, with language, with mathematical theorems? It seems like once you have the fully constructed Lego castle or whatever your favorite Lego world is, figuring out how to get there from the basic building blocks, is that an empty hard problem? It’s a hard problem.
So what’s the computational complexity of figuring out the shortest path with molecules, with language, with mathematical theorems? It seems like once you have the fully constructed Lego castle or whatever your favorite Lego world is, figuring out how to get there from the basic building blocks, is that an empty hard problem? It’s a hard problem.
Lee Cronin
It’s a hard problem. But actually if you look at it, so the best way to look at it, let’s take a molecule. So if the molecule has 13 bonds, first of all, take 13 copies of the molecule and just cut all the bonds. So cut 12 bonds and then you just put them in order and then that’s how it works. And you keep looking for symmetry or copies so you can then shorten it as you go down.
It’s a hard problem. But actually if you look at it, so the best way to look at it, let’s take a molecule. So if the molecule has 13 bonds, first of all, take 13 copies of the molecule and just cut all the bonds. So cut 12 bonds and then you just put them in order and then that’s how it works. And you keep looking for symmetry or copies so you can then shorten it as you go down.
And that becomes [inaudible 00:07:53] quite hard. For some natural product molecules, it becomes very hard. It’s not impossible, but we’re looking at the bounds on that at the moment. But as the object gets bigger it becomes really hard. But that’s the bad news. But the good news is there are shortcuts. And we might even be able to physically measure the complexity without computationally calculating it, which is kind of insane.
Lex Fridman
Wait, how would you do that?
Wait, how would you do that?
Lee Cronin
Well, in the case of molecule, so if you shine light on a molecule, let’s take an infrared. The molecule has each of the bonds absorbs the infrared differently in what we call the fingerprint region. And so it’s a bit like because it’s quantized as well, you have all these discreet kind of absorbances. And my intuition, after we realized we could cut molecules up in mass spec, that was the first go at this. We did it with using infrared. And the infrared gave us an even better correlation assembly index. And we used another technique as well in addition to infrared called NMR, nuclear magnetic resonance, which tells you about the number of different magnetic environments in a molecule. And that also worked out. So we have three techniques which each of them independently gives us the same or tending towards the same assembly index from molecule that we can calculate mathematically.
Well, in the case of molecule, so if you shine light on a molecule, let’s take an infrared. The molecule has each of the bonds absorbs the infrared differently in what we call the fingerprint region. And so it’s a bit like because it’s quantized as well, you have all these discreet kind of absorbances. And my intuition, after we realized we could cut molecules up in mass spec, that was the first go at this. We did it with using infrared. And the infrared gave us an even better correlation assembly index. And we used another technique as well in addition to infrared called NMR, nuclear magnetic resonance, which tells you about the number of different magnetic environments in a molecule. And that also worked out. So we have three techniques which each of them independently gives us the same or tending towards the same assembly index from molecule that we can calculate mathematically.
Lex Fridman
So these are all methods of mass spectrometry, mass spec. You scan a molecule, it gives you data in the form of a mass spectrum. And you’re saying that the data correlates to the assembly index?
So these are all methods of mass spectrometry, mass spec. You scan a molecule, it gives you data in the form of a mass spectrum. And you’re saying that the data correlates to the assembly index?
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So how generalizable is that shortcut, first of all it’s chemistry. And second of all, beyond that, that seems like a nice hack and you’re extremely knowledgeable about various aspects of chemistry. So you can say, okay, it kind of correlates. But the whole idea behind assembly theory paper and perhaps why it’s so controversial is that it reaches bigger. It reaches for the bigger general theory of objects in the universe.
So how generalizable is that shortcut, first of all it’s chemistry. And second of all, beyond that, that seems like a nice hack and you’re extremely knowledgeable about various aspects of chemistry. So you can say, okay, it kind of correlates. But the whole idea behind assembly theory paper and perhaps why it’s so controversial is that it reaches bigger. It reaches for the bigger general theory of objects in the universe.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, I’d say so. I’d agree. So I’ve started assembly theory of emoticons with my lab, believe it or not. So we take emojis, pixelate them and work out the assembly index of the emoji and then work out how many emojis you can make on the path of emoji. So there’s the uber emoji from which all other emojis emerge. So you can then take a photograph and by looking at the shortest path, by reproducing the pixels to make the image you want, you can measure that. So then you start to be able to take spatial data.
Yeah, I’d say so. I’d agree. So I’ve started assembly theory of emoticons with my lab, believe it or not. So we take emojis, pixelate them and work out the assembly index of the emoji and then work out how many emojis you can make on the path of emoji. So there’s the uber emoji from which all other emojis emerge. So you can then take a photograph and by looking at the shortest path, by reproducing the pixels to make the image you want, you can measure that. So then you start to be able to take spatial data.
Now there’s some problems there. What is then the definition of the object? How many pixels? How do you break it down? And so we’re just learning all this right now.
Lex Fridman
So how do you compute, begin to compute the assembly index of a graphical, a set of pixels on a 2D plane that form a thing?
So how do you compute, begin to compute the assembly index of a graphical, a set of pixels on a 2D plane that form a thing?
Lee Cronin
So you would first of all determine the resolution. So then what is your XY and what the number on the X and Y plane and then look at the surface area. And then you take all your emojis and make sure they’re all looked at the same resolution. And then we would basically then do exactly the same thing we would do for cutting the bonds. You’d cut bits out of the emoji and look at, you’d have a bag of pixels and you would then add those pixels together to make the overall emoji.
So you would first of all determine the resolution. So then what is your XY and what the number on the X and Y plane and then look at the surface area. And then you take all your emojis and make sure they’re all looked at the same resolution. And then we would basically then do exactly the same thing we would do for cutting the bonds. You’d cut bits out of the emoji and look at, you’d have a bag of pixels and you would then add those pixels together to make the overall emoji.
Lex Fridman
Wait, wait a minute. But first of all, not every pixels, I mean this is at the core, machine learning and computer vision, not every pixels that important. And there’s macro features, there’s micro features and all that kind of stuff.
Wait, wait a minute. But first of all, not every pixels, I mean this is at the core, machine learning and computer vision, not every pixels that important. And there’s macro features, there’s micro features and all that kind of stuff.
Lee Cronin
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
The eyes appear in a lot of them, the smile appears in a lot of them.
The eyes appear in a lot of them, the smile appears in a lot of them.
Lee Cronin
So in the same way in chemistry we assume the bond is fundamental. What we do in they’re and here is we assume the resolution at the scale at which we do it is fundamental and we’re just working that out. And you’re right, that will change because as you take your lens out a bit, it will change dramatically.
So in the same way in chemistry we assume the bond is fundamental. What we do in they’re and here is we assume the resolution at the scale at which we do it is fundamental and we’re just working that out. And you’re right, that will change because as you take your lens out a bit, it will change dramatically.
But it’s just a new way of looking at, not just compression. What we do right now in computer science and data, one big kind of misunderstanding as assembly theory is telling you about how compressed the object is. That’s not right. It’s how much information is required on a chain of events. Because the nice thing is if, when you do compression and computer science, we’re wandering a bit here, but it’s kind of worth wandering I think, you assume you have instantaneous access to all the information in the memory. In assembly theory you say, “No, you don’t get access to that memory until you’ve done the work.” And then when you’ve done access to that memory, you can have access but not to the next one.
And this is how in assembly theory, we talk about the four universes, the assembly universe, the assembly possible, and the assembly contingent, and then the assembly observed. And they’re all scales in this commentorial universe.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Can you explain each one of them?
Yeah. Can you explain each one of them?
Lee Cronin
Yep. So the assembly universe is like anything goes, just combinatorial kind of explosion in everything.
Yep. So the assembly universe is like anything goes, just combinatorial kind of explosion in everything.
Lex Fridman
So that’s the biggest one?
So that’s the biggest one?
Lee Cronin
That’s the biggest one. It’s massive.
That’s the biggest one. It’s massive.
Lex Fridman
Assembly universe, assembly possible, assembly contingent, assembly observed. And the Y axis is assembly steps in time and the X axis as the thing expands through time, more and more unique objects appear.
Assembly universe, assembly possible, assembly contingent, assembly observed. And the Y axis is assembly steps in time and the X axis as the thing expands through time, more and more unique objects appear.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, so assembly universe, everything goes. Assembly possible, laws of physics come in this case in chemistry, bonds assembly. So that means-
Yeah, so assembly universe, everything goes. Assembly possible, laws of physics come in this case in chemistry, bonds assembly. So that means-
Lex Fridman
Those are extra constraints, I guess?
Those are extra constraints, I guess?
Lee Cronin
Yes. And they’re the only constraints. They’re the constraints at the base. So the way to look at it’s you’ve got all your atoms, they’re contized and you can just bond them together. So then you can become a kind of, so in the way in computer science speak, I suppose the assembly universe is just like no laws of physics. Things can fly through mountains, beyond the speed of light. In the assembly possible. You have to apply the laws of physics, but you can get access to all the motifs instantaneously with no effort. So that means you could make anything.
Yes. And they’re the only constraints. They’re the constraints at the base. So the way to look at it’s you’ve got all your atoms, they’re contized and you can just bond them together. So then you can become a kind of, so in the way in computer science speak, I suppose the assembly universe is just like no laws of physics. Things can fly through mountains, beyond the speed of light. In the assembly possible. You have to apply the laws of physics, but you can get access to all the motifs instantaneously with no effort. So that means you could make anything.
Then the assembly contingent says “No, you can’t have access to the highly assembled object in the future until you’ve done the work in the past on the causal chain.” And that’s really, the really interesting shift where you go from assembly possible to assembly contingent. That is really the key thing in assembly theory that says you cannot just have instantaneous access to all those memories. You have to have done the work. Somehow the universe has to have somehow built a system that allows you to select that path rather than other paths.
And then the final thing the assembly observed is basically us saying, “Oh, these are the things we actually see. We can go backwards now and understand that they have been created by this causal process.”
Lex Fridman
Wait a minute. So when you say the universe has to construct the system that does the work, is that like the environment that allows for selection?
Wait a minute. So when you say the universe has to construct the system that does the work, is that like the environment that allows for selection?
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So that’s the thing that does the selection.
So that’s the thing that does the selection.
Lee Cronin
You could think about in terms of a Von Neumann constructor versus a selection, a ribosome, a Tesla plant assembling Teslas. The difference between the assembly universe in Tesla land and the Tesla factory is everyone says, “No, Teslas are just easy. They just spring out, you know how to make them all. The Tesla factory, you have to put things in sequence and out comes a Tesla.
You could think about in terms of a Von Neumann constructor versus a selection, a ribosome, a Tesla plant assembling Teslas. The difference between the assembly universe in Tesla land and the Tesla factory is everyone says, “No, Teslas are just easy. They just spring out, you know how to make them all. The Tesla factory, you have to put things in sequence and out comes a Tesla.
Lex Fridman
So you’re talking about the factory?
So you’re talking about the factory?
Lee Cronin
Yes. This is really nice, super important point is that when I talk about the universe having a memory or there’s some magic, it’s not that. It’s that tells you that there must be a process encoded somewhere in physical reality, be it a cell, a Tesla factory or something else that is making that object. I’m not saying there’s some kind of woo-woo memory in the universe, morphic resonance or something. I’m saying that there is an actual causal process that is being directed, constrained in some way. So it’s not kind of just making everything.
Yes. This is really nice, super important point is that when I talk about the universe having a memory or there’s some magic, it’s not that. It’s that tells you that there must be a process encoded somewhere in physical reality, be it a cell, a Tesla factory or something else that is making that object. I’m not saying there’s some kind of woo-woo memory in the universe, morphic resonance or something. I’m saying that there is an actual causal process that is being directed, constrained in some way. So it’s not kind of just making everything.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but Lee, what’s the factory that made the factory? First of all, you assume the laws of physics is just sprung to existence at the beginning. Those are constraints. But what makes the factory the environment that does the selection?
Yeah, but Lee, what’s the factory that made the factory? First of all, you assume the laws of physics is just sprung to existence at the beginning. Those are constraints. But what makes the factory the environment that does the selection?
Lee Cronin
This is the question of, well, it’s the first interesting question that I want to answer out of four. I think the factory emerges in the interplay between the environment and the objects that are being built. And let me, I’ll have a go at explain to you the shortest path.
This is the question of, well, it’s the first interesting question that I want to answer out of four. I think the factory emerges in the interplay between the environment and the objects that are being built. And let me, I’ll have a go at explain to you the shortest path.
So why is the shortest path important? Imagine you’ve got, I’m going to have to go chemistry for a moment, then abstract it. So imagine you’ve got a given environment that you have a budget of atoms, you’re just flinging together. And the objective of those atoms that being flung together in say, molecule A, they decompose. So molecules decompose over time. So the molecules in this environment, in this magic environment have to not die, but they do die. They have a half-life.
So the only way the molecules can get through that environment out the other side, let’s pretend the environment is a box and can go in and out without dying. And there’s just an infinite supply of atoms coming or, well, a large supply, the molecule gets built, but the molecule that is able to template itself being built and survives in the environment will basically reign supreme.
Now let’s say that molecule takes 10 steps and it is using a finite set of atoms. Now, let’s say another molecule, smart ass molecule we’ll call it, comes in and can survive in that environment and can copy itself, but it only needs five steps. The molecule that only needs five steps continued, both molecules are being destroyed, but they’re creating themselves faster they can be destroyed. You can see that the shortest path reigns supreme. So the shortest path tells us something super interesting about the minimal amount of information required to propagate that motif in time and space. And it seems to be like some kind of conservation law.
Lex Fridman
So one of the intuitions you have is the propagation of motifs in time will be done by the things that can construct themselves in the shortest path.
So one of the intuitions you have is the propagation of motifs in time will be done by the things that can construct themselves in the shortest path.
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So you can assume that most of the objects in the universe are built in the shortest, in the most efficient way. Big leap I just took there.
So you can assume that most of the objects in the universe are built in the shortest, in the most efficient way. Big leap I just took there.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. Yes and no, because there are other things. So in the limit, yes, because you want to tell the difference between things that have required a factory to build them and just random processes. But you can find instances where the shortest path isn’t taken for an individual object, individual function. And people go, “Ah, that means the shortest path isn’t right.” And then I say, “Well, I don’t know. I think it’s right still because,” so of course, because there are other driving forces, it’s not just one molecule.
Yeah. Yes and no, because there are other things. So in the limit, yes, because you want to tell the difference between things that have required a factory to build them and just random processes. But you can find instances where the shortest path isn’t taken for an individual object, individual function. And people go, “Ah, that means the shortest path isn’t right.” And then I say, “Well, I don’t know. I think it’s right still because,” so of course, because there are other driving forces, it’s not just one molecule.
Now you start to consider two objects, you have a joint assembly space. And it’s not now, it’s a compromise between not just making A and B in the shortest path. You want to be able to make A and B in the shortest path, which might mean that A is slightly longer, compromise. So when you see slightly more nesting in the construction, when you take a given object, that can look longer. But that’s because the overall function is the object is still trying to be efficient. And this is still very hand wavy and maybe having no leg to stand on, but we think we’re getting somewhere with that.
Lex Fridman
And there’s probably some parallelization, right?
And there’s probably some parallelization, right?
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So this is not sequential. The building is, I guess.
So this is not sequential. The building is, I guess.
Lee Cronin
No, you’re right.
No, you’re right.
Lex Fridman
When you’re talking about complex objects, you don’t have to work sequentially. You can work in parallel, you can get your friends together and they can…
When you’re talking about complex objects, you don’t have to work sequentially. You can work in parallel, you can get your friends together and they can…
Lee Cronin
Yeah, and the thing we’re working on right now is how to understand these parallel processes. Now there’s a new thing we’ve introduced called assembly depth. And assembly depth can be lower than the assembly index for a molecule when they’re cooperating together because exactly this parallel processing is going on. And my team have been working this out in the last few weeks because we’re looking at what compromises does nature need to make when it’s making molecules in a cell? And I wonder if maybe like, well, I’m always leaping out of my competence, but in economics, I’m just wondering if you could apply this in economic processes. It seems like capitalism is very good at finding shortest path every time. And there are ludicrous things that happen because actually the cost function has been minimized.
Yeah, and the thing we’re working on right now is how to understand these parallel processes. Now there’s a new thing we’ve introduced called assembly depth. And assembly depth can be lower than the assembly index for a molecule when they’re cooperating together because exactly this parallel processing is going on. And my team have been working this out in the last few weeks because we’re looking at what compromises does nature need to make when it’s making molecules in a cell? And I wonder if maybe like, well, I’m always leaping out of my competence, but in economics, I’m just wondering if you could apply this in economic processes. It seems like capitalism is very good at finding shortest path every time. And there are ludicrous things that happen because actually the cost function has been minimized.
And so I keep seeing parallels everywhere where there are complex nested systems where if you give it enough time and you introduce a bit of heterogeneity, the system readjusts and finds a new shortest path. But the shortest path isn’t fixed on just one molecule now. It’s in the actual existence of the object over time. And that object could be a city, it could be a cell, it could be a factory, but I think we’re going way beyond molecules and my competence so probably should go back to molecules, but hey.
Assembly equation
Lex Fridman
All right, before we get too far, let’s talk about the assembly equation. Okay. How should we do this? Let me just even read that part of the paper. We define assembly as the total amount of selection necessary to produce an ensemble of observed objects quantified using equation one. The equation basically has A on one side, which is the assembly of the ensemble, and then a sum from one to N, where N is the total number of unique objects.
All right, before we get too far, let’s talk about the assembly equation. Okay. How should we do this? Let me just even read that part of the paper. We define assembly as the total amount of selection necessary to produce an ensemble of observed objects quantified using equation one. The equation basically has A on one side, which is the assembly of the ensemble, and then a sum from one to N, where N is the total number of unique objects.
And then there is a few variables in there that include the assembly index, the copy number which we’ll talk about. That’s an interesting, I don’t remember you talking about that. That’s an interesting addition and I think a powerful one. It has to do with what, that you can create pretty complex objects randomly, and in order to know that they’re not random, that there’s a factory involved, you need to see a bunch of them. That’s the intuition there. It’s an interesting intuition and then some normalization. What else is and-
Lee Cronin
N minus one, just to make sure that more than one object, one object could be a one-off and random. And then you have more than one identical object. That’s interesting.
N minus one, just to make sure that more than one object, one object could be a one-off and random. And then you have more than one identical object. That’s interesting.
Lex Fridman
When there’s two of a thing.
When there’s two of a thing.
Lee Cronin
Two of a thing is super important, especially if the index assembly index is high.
Two of a thing is super important, especially if the index assembly index is high.
Lex Fridman
So we could say several questions here. One, let’s talk about selection. What is this term selection? What is this term evolution that we’re referring to? Which aspect of Darwinian evolution are we referring to? That’s interesting here.
So we could say several questions here. One, let’s talk about selection. What is this term selection? What is this term evolution that we’re referring to? Which aspect of Darwinian evolution are we referring to? That’s interesting here.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, so this is probably what the paper, we should talk about the paper for a second. The paper, what it did is it kind of annoyed, we didn’t know it. It got intention and obviously the angry people were annoyed.
Yeah, so this is probably what the paper, we should talk about the paper for a second. The paper, what it did is it kind of annoyed, we didn’t know it. It got intention and obviously the angry people were annoyed.
Lex Fridman
There’s angry people in the world. That’s good.
There’s angry people in the world. That’s good.
Lee Cronin
So what happened is the evolutionary biologists got angry. We were not expecting that. We thought evolutionary biologists would be cool. I knew that some, not many, computational complexity people will get angry because I’ve kind of been poking them and maybe I deserved it, but I was trying to poke them in a productive way. And then the physicists kind of got grumpy because the initial conditions tell everything. The prebiotic chemist got slightly grumpy because there’s not enough chemistry in there. Then finally, when the creationist said it wasn’t creationist enough, I was like, “I’ve done my job.”
So what happened is the evolutionary biologists got angry. We were not expecting that. We thought evolutionary biologists would be cool. I knew that some, not many, computational complexity people will get angry because I’ve kind of been poking them and maybe I deserved it, but I was trying to poke them in a productive way. And then the physicists kind of got grumpy because the initial conditions tell everything. The prebiotic chemist got slightly grumpy because there’s not enough chemistry in there. Then finally, when the creationist said it wasn’t creationist enough, I was like, “I’ve done my job.”
Lex Fridman
You’re saying the physics, they say, because you’re basically saying that physics is not enough to tell the story of how biology emerges?
You’re saying the physics, they say, because you’re basically saying that physics is not enough to tell the story of how biology emerges?
Lee Cronin
I think so.
I think so.
Lex Fridman
And then they said a few physics is the beginning and the end of the story.
And then they said a few physics is the beginning and the end of the story.
Lee Cronin
So what happened is the reason why people put the phone down on the call of the paper, if you view reading the paper like a phone call, they got to the abstract and in the abstract-
So what happened is the reason why people put the phone down on the call of the paper, if you view reading the paper like a phone call, they got to the abstract and in the abstract-
Lex Fridman
First sentence is pretty strong.
First sentence is pretty strong.
Lee Cronin
The first two sentences caused everybody-
The first two sentences caused everybody-
Lex Fridman
Scientists have grappled with reconciling biological evolution with the immutable laws of the universe defined by physics.
Scientists have grappled with reconciling biological evolution with the immutable laws of the universe defined by physics.
Lee Cronin
True, right? There’s nothing wrong with that statement. Totally true.
True, right? There’s nothing wrong with that statement. Totally true.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. These laws underpin life’s origin, evolution, and the development of human culture and technology, yet they do not predict the emergence of these phenomena. Wow. First of all, we should say the title of the paper, this paper was accepted and published in Nature. The title is Assembly Theory Explains and Quantifies Selection and Evolution, very humble title. And the entirety of the paper, I think, presents interesting ideas, but reaches high.
Yeah. These laws underpin life’s origin, evolution, and the development of human culture and technology, yet they do not predict the emergence of these phenomena. Wow. First of all, we should say the title of the paper, this paper was accepted and published in Nature. The title is Assembly Theory Explains and Quantifies Selection and Evolution, very humble title. And the entirety of the paper, I think, presents interesting ideas, but reaches high.
Lee Cronin
I am not… I would do it all again. This paper was actually on the pre-print server for over a year.
I am not… I would do it all again. This paper was actually on the pre-print server for over a year.
Lex Fridman
You regret nothing?
You regret nothing?
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lee Cronin
I think, yeah, I don’t regret anything.
I think, yeah, I don’t regret anything.
Lex Fridman
You and Frank Sinatra did it your way.
You and Frank Sinatra did it your way.
Lee Cronin
What I love about being a scientist is sometimes because I’m a bit dim and I don’t understand what people are telling me, I want to get to the point. This paper says, “Hey, the laws of physics are really cool, the universe is great, but they don’t really, it’s not intuitive that you just run the standard model and get life out.” I think most physicists might go, “Yeah, it’s not just, we can’t just go back and say that’s what happened.” Because physics can’t explain the origin of life yet. That doesn’t mean it won’t or can’t. Okay. Just to be clear. Sorry intelligent designers, we are going to get there.
What I love about being a scientist is sometimes because I’m a bit dim and I don’t understand what people are telling me, I want to get to the point. This paper says, “Hey, the laws of physics are really cool, the universe is great, but they don’t really, it’s not intuitive that you just run the standard model and get life out.” I think most physicists might go, “Yeah, it’s not just, we can’t just go back and say that’s what happened.” Because physics can’t explain the origin of life yet. That doesn’t mean it won’t or can’t. Okay. Just to be clear. Sorry intelligent designers, we are going to get there.
Second point, we say that evolution works, but we don’t know how evolution got going. So biological evolution and biological selection. So for me, this seems like a simple continuum. So when I mentioned selection and evolution in the title, I think, and in the abstract, we should have maybe prefaced that and said non-biological selection and non-biological evolutions. And then that might have made it even more crystal clear. But I didn’t think that biology, evolutionary biology, should be so bold to claim ownership of selection and evolution.
And secondly, a lot of evolutionary biologists seem to dismiss the origin of life question and just say it’s obvious. And that causes a real problem scientifically because two different, when the physicists are like, ” We own the universe. The universe is good, we explain all of it, look at us.” And even biologists say, “We can explain biology.” And the poor chemists in the middle going, “But hang on.”
And this paper kind of says, “Hey, there is an interesting disconnect between physics and biology. And that’s at the point at which memories get made in chemistry through bonds. And hey, let’s look at this close and see if we can quantify it.” So yeah, I never expected the paper to get that much interest. And still, it’s only been published just over a month ago now.
Lex Fridman
So just to link on the selection, what is the broader sense of what selection means?
So just to link on the selection, what is the broader sense of what selection means?
Lee Cronin
Yeah, that’s really good. For selection, so I think for selection, so this is where for me, the concept of an object is something that can persist in time and not die, but basically can be broken up. So if I was going to kind of bolster the definition of an object, so if something can form and persist for a long period of time under an existing environment that could destroy other, and I’m going to use anthropomorphic terms, I apologize, about weaker objects or less robust, then the environment could have selected that.
Yeah, that’s really good. For selection, so I think for selection, so this is where for me, the concept of an object is something that can persist in time and not die, but basically can be broken up. So if I was going to kind of bolster the definition of an object, so if something can form and persist for a long period of time under an existing environment that could destroy other, and I’m going to use anthropomorphic terms, I apologize, about weaker objects or less robust, then the environment could have selected that.
So good chemistry examples, if you took some carbon and you made a chain of carbon atoms, whereas if you took some, I don’t know, some carbon, nitrogen and oxygen and made change from those, you’d start to get different reactions and rearrangements. So a chain of carbon atoms might be more resistant to falling apart under a acidic or basic conditions versus another set of molecules. So it survives in that environment. So the acid pond, the resistant molecule can get through. And then that molecule goes into another environment. So that environment now maybe being acid pond is a basic pond or maybe it’s an oxidizing pond. And so if you’ve got carbon and it goes an oxidizing pond, maybe the carbon starts to oxidize and break apart. So you go through all these kind of obstacle courses if you like, given by reality. So selection is the ability happens when object survives in an environment for some time.
And this is the thing that’s super subtle. The object has to be continually being destroyed and made by process. So it’s not just about the object now, it’s about the process and time that makes it because a rock could just stand on the mountain side for 4 billion years and nothing happened to it. And that’s not necessarily really advanced selection. So for selection to get really interesting, you need to have a turnover in time. You need to be continually creating objects, producing them, what we call discovery time. So there’s a discovery time for an object.
When that object is discovered, if it’s say a molecule that can then act on itself or the chain of events that caused itself to bolster its formation, then you go from discovery time to production time and suddenly you have more of it in the universe. So it could be a self-replicating molecule and the interaction of the molecule in the environment, in the warm little pond or in the sea or wherever in the bubble could then start to build a proto factory, the environment.
So really to answer your question, what the factory is, the factory is the environment, but it’s not very autonomous, it’s not very redundant. There’s lots of things that could go wrong. So once you get high enough up the hierarchy of networks, of interactions, something needs to happen that needs to be compressed into a smaller volume and made resistant robust because in biology, selection and evolution is robust that you have error correction built in. You have really, there’s good ways of basically making sure propagation goes on.
So really the difference between inorganic, antibiotic selection and evolution and evolution and stuff in biology is robustness the ability to propagate, the ability to survive in lots of different environments. Whereas our poor little inorganic sole molecule, whatever, just dies in lots of different environments. So there’s something super special that happens from the inorganic molecule in the environment that kills it to where you’ve got evolution and cells can survive everywhere.
Lex Fridman
How special is that? How do you know those kinds of evolution factors aren’t everywhere in the universe?
How special is that? How do you know those kinds of evolution factors aren’t everywhere in the universe?
Lee Cronin
I don’t, and I’m excited because I think selection isn’t special at all. I think what is special is the history of the environments on earth that gave rise to the first cell that now has taken all those environments and is now more autonomous. And I would like to think that, you know this paper could be very wrong, but I don’t think it’s very wrong. I mean it’s certainly wrong, but it’s less wrong than some other ideas, I hope, right? And if this inspires us to go and look for selection in the universe because we now have an equation where we can say, we can look for selection going on and say, “Oh, that’s interesting. We seem to have a process. It’s giving us high copy number objects that also are highly complex, but that doesn’t look like life as we know it.”
I don’t, and I’m excited because I think selection isn’t special at all. I think what is special is the history of the environments on earth that gave rise to the first cell that now has taken all those environments and is now more autonomous. And I would like to think that, you know this paper could be very wrong, but I don’t think it’s very wrong. I mean it’s certainly wrong, but it’s less wrong than some other ideas, I hope, right? And if this inspires us to go and look for selection in the universe because we now have an equation where we can say, we can look for selection going on and say, “Oh, that’s interesting. We seem to have a process. It’s giving us high copy number objects that also are highly complex, but that doesn’t look like life as we know it.”
And we use that and say, “Oh, there’s a hydrothermal vent. Oh, there’s a process going on. There’s molecular networks,” because the assembly equation is not only meant to identify at the higher end advanced selection, what you get, I would call in biology super advanced selection. And even, you could use the assembly equation to look for technology and God forbid we could talk about consciousness and abstraction, but let’s keep it primitive, molecules and biology. So I think the real power of the assembly equation is to say how much selection is going on in this space.
And there’s a really simple thought experiment I could do is you have a little Petri dish and on that Petri dish you put some simple food. So the assembly index of all the sugars and everything is quite low. So then, and you put a single cell of E. coli cell and then you say, “I’m going to measure the assembly in this, amount of assembly in the box.” So it’s quite low, but the rate of change of assembly, DADT will go [inaudible 00:33:47] sigmoidal as it eats all the food and the number of coli cells will replicate because they take all the food, they copy themselves, the assembly index of all the molecules goes up, up and up until the food is exhausted in the box. So now the E. coli’s stopped-
Lee Cronin
… in the box. So now the E. coli’s stopped… I mean, die is probably a strong word. They stopped respiring because all the food is gone. But suddenly, the amount of assembly in the box has gone up gigantically because of that one E. coli factory has just eaten through, milled lots of other E. coli factories run out of food and stopped. And so that, looking at that… So in the initial box, although the amount of assembly was really small, it was able to replicate and use all the food and go up. And that’s what we’re trying to do in the lab, actually, is make those experiments and see if we can spot the emergence of molecular networks that are producing complexity, as we feed in raw materials and we feed a challenge, an environment. We try and kill the molecules. And really, that’s the main idea for the entire paper.
… in the box. So now the E. coli’s stopped… I mean, die is probably a strong word. They stopped respiring because all the food is gone. But suddenly, the amount of assembly in the box has gone up gigantically because of that one E. coli factory has just eaten through, milled lots of other E. coli factories run out of food and stopped. And so that, looking at that… So in the initial box, although the amount of assembly was really small, it was able to replicate and use all the food and go up. And that’s what we’re trying to do in the lab, actually, is make those experiments and see if we can spot the emergence of molecular networks that are producing complexity, as we feed in raw materials and we feed a challenge, an environment. We try and kill the molecules. And really, that’s the main idea for the entire paper.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and see if you can measure the changes in the assembly index throughout the whole system.
Yeah, and see if you can measure the changes in the assembly index throughout the whole system.
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Discovering alien life
Lex Fridman
Okay. What about, if I show up to a new planet, we’ll go to Mars or some other planet from a different solar system, how do we use assembly index there to discover alien life?
Okay. What about, if I show up to a new planet, we’ll go to Mars or some other planet from a different solar system, how do we use assembly index there to discover alien life?
Lee Cronin
Very simply, actually. Let’s say we’ll go to Mars with a mass spectrometer, with a sufficiently high resolution, so what you have to be able to do, so a good thing about mass spec is that you can select the molecule from the mass, and then if it’s high enough resolution, you can be more and more sure that you’re just seeing identical copies. You can count them. And then you fragment them and you count the number of fragments, and look at the molecular weight. And the higher the molecular weight and the higher the number of the fragments, the higher the assembly index.
Very simply, actually. Let’s say we’ll go to Mars with a mass spectrometer, with a sufficiently high resolution, so what you have to be able to do, so a good thing about mass spec is that you can select the molecule from the mass, and then if it’s high enough resolution, you can be more and more sure that you’re just seeing identical copies. You can count them. And then you fragment them and you count the number of fragments, and look at the molecular weight. And the higher the molecular weight and the higher the number of the fragments, the higher the assembly index.
So if you go to Mars and you take a mass spec, with high enough resolution, and you can find molecules, a guide on earth, if you could find molecules, say, greater than 350 molecular weight, with more than 15 fragments, you have found artifacts that can only be produced, at least on earth, by life. And now you would say, “Oh, well, maybe the geological process.” I would argue very virulently that that is not the case.
But we can say, “Look, if you don’t like the cutoff on earth, go up higher, 30, 100, because there’s going to be a point where you can find a molecule with so many different parts, the chances of you getting a molecule that has a hundred different parts and finding a million identical copies, that’s just impossible. That could never happen in an infinite set of universes.
Lex Fridman
Can you just linger on this copy number thing? A million different copies, what do you mean by copies and why is the number of copies important?
Can you just linger on this copy number thing? A million different copies, what do you mean by copies and why is the number of copies important?
Lee Cronin
Yeah, that was so interesting. I always understood the copy number is really important, but I never explained it properly, for ages. And I kept having this, it goes back to this, if I give you a, I don’t know, a really complicated molecule, and I say it’s complicated, you could say, “Hey, that’s really complicated.” But is it just really random?
Yeah, that was so interesting. I always understood the copy number is really important, but I never explained it properly, for ages. And I kept having this, it goes back to this, if I give you a, I don’t know, a really complicated molecule, and I say it’s complicated, you could say, “Hey, that’s really complicated.” But is it just really random?
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lee Cronin
So I realized that ultimate randomness and ultimate complexity are indistinguishable until you can see a structure in the randomness, so you can see copies.
So I realized that ultimate randomness and ultimate complexity are indistinguishable until you can see a structure in the randomness, so you can see copies.
Lex Fridman
So copies implies structure.
So copies implies structure.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. The factory-
Yeah. The factory-
Lex Fridman
I mean, there’s a deep profound thing in there. Because if you just have a random process, you’re going to get a lot of complex, beautiful, sophisticated things.
I mean, there’s a deep profound thing in there. Because if you just have a random process, you’re going to get a lot of complex, beautiful, sophisticated things.
Lee Cronin
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lex Fridman
What makes them complex in the way we think life is complex or, yeah, something like a factory that’s operating under a selection processes, there should be copies. Is there some looseness about copies? What does it mean for two objects to be equal?
What makes them complex in the way we think life is complex or, yeah, something like a factory that’s operating under a selection processes, there should be copies. Is there some looseness about copies? What does it mean for two objects to be equal?
Lee Cronin
It’s all to do with the telescope or the microscope you’re using. And so, at the maximum resolution… The nice thing about chemists is they have this concept of the molecule and they’re all familiar with the molecule. And molecules, you can hold on your hand, lots of them, identical copies. A molecule is actually a super important thing in chemistry, to say, look, you can have a mole of a molecules, an Avogadro’s number of molecules, and they’re identical. What does that mean? That means that the molecular composition, the bonding and so on, the configuration is indistinguishable. You can hold them together. You can overlay them.
It’s all to do with the telescope or the microscope you’re using. And so, at the maximum resolution… The nice thing about chemists is they have this concept of the molecule and they’re all familiar with the molecule. And molecules, you can hold on your hand, lots of them, identical copies. A molecule is actually a super important thing in chemistry, to say, look, you can have a mole of a molecules, an Avogadro’s number of molecules, and they’re identical. What does that mean? That means that the molecular composition, the bonding and so on, the configuration is indistinguishable. You can hold them together. You can overlay them.
So the way I do it is if I say, “Here’s a bag of 10 identical molecules, let’s prove they’re identical.” You pick one out of the bag and you basically observe it, using some technique, and then you take it away and then you take another one out. If you observe it using technique, you see no differences. They’re identical. It’s really interesting to get right. Because if you take, say, two molecules, molecules can be in different vibrational rotational states. They’re moving all the time.
So in this respect, identical molecules have identical bonding. In this case, we don’t even talk about chirality, because we don’t have a chirality detector. So two identical molecules in one conception, assembly theory, basically considers both hands as being the same. But, of course, they’re not, they’re different. As soon as you have a chiral distinguisher to detect the left and the right hand, they become different. And so, it’s to do with the detection system that you have and the resolution.
Lex Fridman
So I wonder if there’s an art and science to the, which detection system is used when you show up to a new planet.
So I wonder if there’s an art and science to the, which detection system is used when you show up to a new planet.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
So you’re talking about chemistry a lot today. We have standardized detection systems of how to compare molecules. So when you start to talk about emojis and language and mathematical theorems and, I don’t know, more sophisticated things at different scale, at a smaller scale than molecules, at a larger scale than molecules, what detection… If we look at the difference between you and me, Lex and Lee, are we the same? Are we different?
So you’re talking about chemistry a lot today. We have standardized detection systems of how to compare molecules. So when you start to talk about emojis and language and mathematical theorems and, I don’t know, more sophisticated things at different scale, at a smaller scale than molecules, at a larger scale than molecules, what detection… If we look at the difference between you and me, Lex and Lee, are we the same? Are we different?
Lee Cronin
Sure. I mean, of course we’re different close up, but if you zoom out a little bit, we will morphologically look the same. High in characteristics, hair length, stuff like that.
Sure. I mean, of course we’re different close up, but if you zoom out a little bit, we will morphologically look the same. High in characteristics, hair length, stuff like that.
Lex Fridman
Well, also, the species and-
Well, also, the species and-
Lee Cronin
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
… and also there’s a sense why we’re both from earth.
… and also there’s a sense why we’re both from earth.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, I agree. I mean, this is the power of assembly theory in that regard. So if everything… So the way to look at it, if you have a box of objects, if they’re all indistinguishable, then using your technique, what you then do is you then look at the assembly index. Now, if the assembly index of them is really low and they’re all indistinguishable, then they’re telling you that you have to go to another resolution. So that would be, it is a sliding scale. It’s nice.
Yeah, I agree. I mean, this is the power of assembly theory in that regard. So if everything… So the way to look at it, if you have a box of objects, if they’re all indistinguishable, then using your technique, what you then do is you then look at the assembly index. Now, if the assembly index of them is really low and they’re all indistinguishable, then they’re telling you that you have to go to another resolution. So that would be, it is a sliding scale. It’s nice.
Lex Fridman
Got it. So those two are attentional with each other.
Got it. So those two are attentional with each other.
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
The number of copies and the assembly index.
The number of copies and the assembly index.
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s really, really interesting. So, okay. So you show up to a new planet, you’ll be doing what?
That’s really, really interesting. So, okay. So you show up to a new planet, you’ll be doing what?
Lee Cronin
I would do mass spec. I would bring-
I would do mass spec. I would bring-
Lex Fridman
On a sample of what? First of all, how big of a scoop do you take? Do you just take a scoop? What… So we’re looking for primitive life.
On a sample of what? First of all, how big of a scoop do you take? Do you just take a scoop? What… So we’re looking for primitive life.
Lee Cronin
I would look… Yeah, so if you’re just going to Mars or Titan or Enceladus, or somewhere, so a number of ways of doing it. So you could take a large scoop or you go through the atmosphere and detect stuff. You could make a life meter, right? One of Sarah’s colleagues at ASU, Paul Davies, keeps calling it a life meter, which is quite a nice idea. Because you think about it, if you’ve got a living system that’s producing these highly complex molecules and they drift away, and they’re in a highly demanding environment, they could be burnt, right? So they could just be falling apart. So you want to sniff a little bit of complexity and say warmer, warmer, warmer. Oh, we’ve found life, we found the alien. We’ve found the alien Elon Musk, smoking a joint in the bottom of the cave on Mars, or Elon himself, whatever, right?
I would look… Yeah, so if you’re just going to Mars or Titan or Enceladus, or somewhere, so a number of ways of doing it. So you could take a large scoop or you go through the atmosphere and detect stuff. You could make a life meter, right? One of Sarah’s colleagues at ASU, Paul Davies, keeps calling it a life meter, which is quite a nice idea. Because you think about it, if you’ve got a living system that’s producing these highly complex molecules and they drift away, and they’re in a highly demanding environment, they could be burnt, right? So they could just be falling apart. So you want to sniff a little bit of complexity and say warmer, warmer, warmer. Oh, we’ve found life, we found the alien. We’ve found the alien Elon Musk, smoking a joint in the bottom of the cave on Mars, or Elon himself, whatever, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Lee Cronin
You say, “Okay, found it.” So what you can do is a mass spectrometer, you could just look for things in the gas phase or you go on the surface, drill down, because you want to find molecules that are… Well, you’ve either got to find the source, living system, because the problem with just looking for complexity is it gets burnt away. So in a harsh environment on, say, on the surface of Mars, there’s a very low probability that you’re going to find really complex molecules because of all the radiation and so on.
You say, “Okay, found it.” So what you can do is a mass spectrometer, you could just look for things in the gas phase or you go on the surface, drill down, because you want to find molecules that are… Well, you’ve either got to find the source, living system, because the problem with just looking for complexity is it gets burnt away. So in a harsh environment on, say, on the surface of Mars, there’s a very low probability that you’re going to find really complex molecules because of all the radiation and so on.
If you drill down a little bit, you could drill down a bit into soil that’s billions of years old. Then I would put in some solvent, water, alcohol, or something, or take a scoop, make it volatile, put it into the mass spectrometer and just try and detect high complexity, high abundant molecules. And if you get them, hey, presto, you can have evidence of life. Wouldn’t that then be great if you could say, “Okay, we’ve found evidence of life, now we want to keep the life meter, keep searching for more and more complexity,” until you actually find living cells. And you can get those new living cells and then you could bring them back to earth or you could try and sequence them. You could see that they have different DNA and proteins.
Lex Fridman
Go along the gradient of the life meter.
Go along the gradient of the life meter.
Lee Cronin
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
How would you build a life meter? Let’s say we’re together, starting new-
How would you build a life meter? Let’s say we’re together, starting new-
Lee Cronin
Just a mass spectrometer.
Just a mass spectrometer.
Lex Fridman
… new company, launching a life-
… new company, launching a life-
Lee Cronin
Mass spectrometer would be the first way of doing it. Just take-
Mass spectrometer would be the first way of doing it. Just take-
Lex Fridman
No, no, no, but that’s one of the major components of it. But I’m talking about-
No, no, no, but that’s one of the major components of it. But I’m talking about-
Lee Cronin
I would-
I would-
Lex Fridman
… if it’s a device and branding, logo we got to talk about-
… if it’s a device and branding, logo we got to talk about-
Lee Cronin
All right.
All right.
Lex Fridman
… that’s later. But what’s the input and what’s the… How do you get to the metered output?
… that’s later. But what’s the input and what’s the… How do you get to the metered output?
Lee Cronin
So I would take a… So my life meter, our life meter. There you go.
So I would take a… So my life meter, our life meter. There you go.
Lex Fridman
Oh, thank you.
Oh, thank you.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, you’re welcome, would have both infrared and mass spec. It would have two ports so it could shine a light. And so, what it would do is you would have a vacuum chamber and you would have an electrostatic analyzer, and you’d have a monochromator to producing infrared. You’d add the sum. So you’d take a scoop of the sample, put it in the life meter, it would then add a solvent or heat up the sample so some volatiles come off. The volatiles would then be put into the mass… into electrostatic trap, and you’d weigh the molecules and fragment them. Alternatively, you’d shine infrared light on them and you count number of bands. But you’d have to, in that case, do some separation, because you want to separate… And so, in mass spec, it’s really nice and convenient, because you can separate electrostatically, but you need to have that.
Yeah, you’re welcome, would have both infrared and mass spec. It would have two ports so it could shine a light. And so, what it would do is you would have a vacuum chamber and you would have an electrostatic analyzer, and you’d have a monochromator to producing infrared. You’d add the sum. So you’d take a scoop of the sample, put it in the life meter, it would then add a solvent or heat up the sample so some volatiles come off. The volatiles would then be put into the mass… into electrostatic trap, and you’d weigh the molecules and fragment them. Alternatively, you’d shine infrared light on them and you count number of bands. But you’d have to, in that case, do some separation, because you want to separate… And so, in mass spec, it’s really nice and convenient, because you can separate electrostatically, but you need to have that.
Lex Fridman
Can you do it in real time?
Can you do it in real time?
Lee Cronin
Yeah, pretty much. Pretty much, yeah. So let’s go all the way back. Okay, we’re really going to get this-
Yeah, pretty much. Pretty much, yeah. So let’s go all the way back. Okay, we’re really going to get this-
Lex Fridman
Let’s go.
Let’s go.
Lee Cronin
… Lex’s life… Lex and Lee’s life meter.
… Lex’s life… Lex and Lee’s life meter.
Lex Fridman
No, I like Lex and Lee. It’s a good ring to it.
No, I like Lex and Lee. It’s a good ring to it.
Lee Cronin
All right. So you have a vacuum chamber, you have a little nose. The nose would have some, a packing material. So you would take your sample, add it onto the nose, add a solvent or a gas. It would then be sucked up the nose and that would be separated, using what we call chromatography. And then as each band comes off the nose, we’ll then do mass spec and infrared. And in the case of the infrared, count the number of bands, in the case of mass spec, count the number of fragments and weigh it.
All right. So you have a vacuum chamber, you have a little nose. The nose would have some, a packing material. So you would take your sample, add it onto the nose, add a solvent or a gas. It would then be sucked up the nose and that would be separated, using what we call chromatography. And then as each band comes off the nose, we’ll then do mass spec and infrared. And in the case of the infrared, count the number of bands, in the case of mass spec, count the number of fragments and weigh it.
And then the further up in molecular weight range for the mass spec, and the number of bands, you go up and up and up from the dead, interesting, interesting, over the threshold, oh my gosh, earth life, and then right up to the batshit crazy, this is definitely alien intelligence that’s made this life, right? You could almost go all the way there. Same in the infrared. And pretty simple.
The thing that is really problematical is that for many years, decades, what people have done, and I can’t blame them, is they’ve rather, they’ve been obsessing about small biomarkers that we find on earth, amino acids, like single amino acids or evidence of small molecules and these things, and looking for those while I’m looking for complexity. The beautiful thing about this is you can look for complexity without earth chemistry bias or earth biology bias. So assembly theory is just a way of saying, hey, complexity in abundance is evidence of selection. That’s how our universal life meter will work.
Lex Fridman
Complexity in abundance is evidence of selection. Okay. So let’s apply our life meter to earth. If we were just to apply assembly index measurements to earth, what kind of stuff are going to get? What’s impressive about-
Complexity in abundance is evidence of selection. Okay. So let’s apply our life meter to earth. If we were just to apply assembly index measurements to earth, what kind of stuff are going to get? What’s impressive about-
Lee Cronin
So-
So-
Lex Fridman
… some of the complexity on earth?
… some of the complexity on earth?
Lee Cronin
… So we did this a few years ago when I was trying to convince NASA and colleagues that this technique could work. And honestly, it’s so funny, because everyone’s like, “No, it ain’t going to work.” And it was just like, because the chemists were saying, “Of course there are complicated molecules out there you can detect that just form randomly.” And I was like, “Really?” That was like, it’s a bit like, I don’t know, someone saying, “Of course, Darwin’s textbook was just written randomly by some monkeys and a typewriter.” Just for me, it was like, “Really?” And I’ve pushed a lot on the chemists now. And I think most of them are on board, but not totally. I really had some big arguments, but the copy number caught there. Because I think I confused the chemists by saying one-off. And then when I made clear about the copy number, I think that made it a little bit easier.
… So we did this a few years ago when I was trying to convince NASA and colleagues that this technique could work. And honestly, it’s so funny, because everyone’s like, “No, it ain’t going to work.” And it was just like, because the chemists were saying, “Of course there are complicated molecules out there you can detect that just form randomly.” And I was like, “Really?” That was like, it’s a bit like, I don’t know, someone saying, “Of course, Darwin’s textbook was just written randomly by some monkeys and a typewriter.” Just for me, it was like, “Really?” And I’ve pushed a lot on the chemists now. And I think most of them are on board, but not totally. I really had some big arguments, but the copy number caught there. Because I think I confused the chemists by saying one-off. And then when I made clear about the copy number, I think that made it a little bit easier.
Lex Fridman
Just to clarify, a chemist might say that, of course out there, outside of earth there’s complex molecules?
Just to clarify, a chemist might say that, of course out there, outside of earth there’s complex molecules?
Lee Cronin
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Okay. And then you’re saying, “Wait a minute, that’s like saying, ‘Of course there’s aliens out there.'” Like you-
Okay. And then you’re saying, “Wait a minute, that’s like saying, ‘Of course there’s aliens out there.'” Like you-
Lee Cronin
Yeah, exactly that.
Yeah, exactly that.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Lee Cronin
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
You clarify that, that’s actually a very interesting question and we should be looking for complex molecules of which the copy number is two or greater.
You clarify that, that’s actually a very interesting question and we should be looking for complex molecules of which the copy number is two or greater.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, exactly. So on earth, so coming back to earth, what we did is we took a whole bunch of samples and we were running prebiotic chemistry experiments in the lab. We took various inorganic minerals and extracted them, look at the volatile. Because there’s a special way of treating minerals and polymers in assembly theory. In this, in our life machine, we’re looking at molecules. We don’t care about polymers, because they don’t, they’re not volatile. You can’t hold them. How can you make… If you can’t discern that they’re identical, then it’s very difficult for you to work out if this, undergone selection or they’re just a random mess.
Yeah, exactly. So on earth, so coming back to earth, what we did is we took a whole bunch of samples and we were running prebiotic chemistry experiments in the lab. We took various inorganic minerals and extracted them, look at the volatile. Because there’s a special way of treating minerals and polymers in assembly theory. In this, in our life machine, we’re looking at molecules. We don’t care about polymers, because they don’t, they’re not volatile. You can’t hold them. How can you make… If you can’t discern that they’re identical, then it’s very difficult for you to work out if this, undergone selection or they’re just a random mess.
Same with some minerals, but we can come back to that. So basically what you do, we’ve got a whole loads of samples, inorganic ones, we got a load of, we got Scotch whiskey and also got-
Lex Fridman
Nice.
Nice.
Lee Cronin
… took a odd bag, which is one of my favorite whiskeys, which is very peaty. And another-
… took a odd bag, which is one of my favorite whiskeys, which is very peaty. And another-
Lex Fridman
What’s peaty mean?
What’s peaty mean?
Lee Cronin
It is like… So the way that in Scotland, in Isla, which is a little island, the scotch, the whiskey is let to mature in barrels. It’s said that the peat, the complex molecules in the peat find their way through into the whiskey, and that’s what gives it this intense brown color and really complex flavor. It’s literally molecular complexity that does that. And so, vodka’s the complete opposite. It’s just pure, right?-
It is like… So the way that in Scotland, in Isla, which is a little island, the scotch, the whiskey is let to mature in barrels. It’s said that the peat, the complex molecules in the peat find their way through into the whiskey, and that’s what gives it this intense brown color and really complex flavor. It’s literally molecular complexity that does that. And so, vodka’s the complete opposite. It’s just pure, right?-
Lex Fridman
So the better the whiskey, the higher the assembly index, the higher the assembly index, the better the whiskey.
So the better the whiskey, the higher the assembly index, the higher the assembly index, the better the whiskey.
Lee Cronin
I mean, I really love deep, peaty Scottish whiskeys. Near my house, there is one of the lowland distilleries, called Glengoyne. It’s still beautiful whiskey but not as complex. So for fun, I took some Glengoyne whiskey in our bag and put them into the mass spec and measured the assembly index. I also got E. coli. So the way we do it, take the E. coli, break the cell apart, take it all apart. And also got some beer. And people were ridiculing us saying, “Oh, beer is evidence of complexity.”
I mean, I really love deep, peaty Scottish whiskeys. Near my house, there is one of the lowland distilleries, called Glengoyne. It’s still beautiful whiskey but not as complex. So for fun, I took some Glengoyne whiskey in our bag and put them into the mass spec and measured the assembly index. I also got E. coli. So the way we do it, take the E. coli, break the cell apart, take it all apart. And also got some beer. And people were ridiculing us saying, “Oh, beer is evidence of complexity.”
And one of the computational complexity people, it was just throwing, yeah… He’s very vigorous in his disagreement of assembly theory, was just saying, “You don’t know what you’re doing. Even beer is more complicated than human.” What he didn’t realize is that it’s not beer, per se, it’s taking the yeast extract, taking the extract, breaking the cells, extracting the molecules, and just looking at the profile of the molecules, see if there’s anything over the threshold. And we also put in a really complex molecule, Taxol.
So we took all of these, but also NASA gave us, I think, five samples, and they wouldn’t tell us what they are. They said, “No, we don’t believe you’re going to get this to work.” And they really gave us some super complex samples. And they gave us two fossils, one that was a million years old and one was at 10,000 years old, something from Antarctica, seabed. They gave us some Murchison and meteorite, and a few others. Put them through the system. So we took all the samples, treat them all identically, put them into mass spec, fragmented them, counted.
And in this case, implicit in the measurement was we, in mass spec, you only detect peaks when you’ve got more than, say, let’s say 10,000 identical molecules. So the copy number’s already baked in, but wasn’t quantified, which is super important there. This was in the first paper. Because I was like, it’s abundant, of course.
And when you then took it all out, we found that the biological samples gave you molecules that had an assembly index greater than 15. And all the abiotic samples were less than 15. And then we took the NASA samples and we looked at the ones that were more than 15, less than 15, and we gave them back to NASA, and they’re like, “Oh, gosh. Yep, dead, living, dead, living. You got it.” And that’s what we found on earth.
Lex Fridman
That’s a success.
That’s a success.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. Oh yeah, resounding success.
Yeah. Oh yeah, resounding success.
Lex Fridman
Can you just go back to the beer and the E. coli? So what’s the assembly index on those?
Can you just go back to the beer and the E. coli? So what’s the assembly index on those?
Lee Cronin
So what you were able to do is, the assembly index of… We found high assembly index molecules originating from the beer sample and the E. coli sample.
So what you were able to do is, the assembly index of… We found high assembly index molecules originating from the beer sample and the E. coli sample.
Lex Fridman
Yeast in the beer.
Yeast in the beer.
Evolution of life on Earth
Lee Cronin
I didn’t know which one was higher. We didn’t really do any detail there. Because now we are doing that. Because one of the things we’ve done, it’s a secret, but I can tell you. I think it’s-
I didn’t know which one was higher. We didn’t really do any detail there. Because now we are doing that. Because one of the things we’ve done, it’s a secret, but I can tell you. I think it’s-
Lex Fridman
Nobody’s listening.
Nobody’s listening.
Lee Cronin
… well, is that we’ve just mapped the tree of life using assembly theory, because everyone said, ” Oh, you can’t do anything from biology.” And what we’re able to do is, so I think there’s three, well, two ways of doing tree of life… Well, three ways actually.
… well, is that we’ve just mapped the tree of life using assembly theory, because everyone said, ” Oh, you can’t do anything from biology.” And what we’re able to do is, so I think there’s three, well, two ways of doing tree of life… Well, three ways actually.
Lex Fridman
What’s the tree of life?
What’s the tree of life?
Lee Cronin
So the tree of life is basically tracing back the history of life on earth, all the different species, going back who evolved from what. And it all goes all the way back to the first life forms, and they branch off. And you have plant kingdom, the animal kingdom, the fungi kingdom, and different branches all the way up. And the way this was classically done, and I’m no evolutionary biologist. The evolutionary biologists tell me every day, at least 10 times… I want to be one though. I like biology, it’s cool.
So the tree of life is basically tracing back the history of life on earth, all the different species, going back who evolved from what. And it all goes all the way back to the first life forms, and they branch off. And you have plant kingdom, the animal kingdom, the fungi kingdom, and different branches all the way up. And the way this was classically done, and I’m no evolutionary biologist. The evolutionary biologists tell me every day, at least 10 times… I want to be one though. I like biology, it’s cool.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s very cool.
Yeah, it’s very cool.
Lee Cronin
But basically-
But basically-
Lex Fridman
Evolutionary.
Evolutionary.
Lee Cronin
… What Darwin and Mendeleev, and all these people do is just, they draw pictures and they [inaudible 00:54:20] taxa. They were able to draw pictures and say, “Oh, these look like common classes.”
… What Darwin and Mendeleev, and all these people do is just, they draw pictures and they [inaudible 00:54:20] taxa. They were able to draw pictures and say, “Oh, these look like common classes.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lee Cronin
Then…
Then…
Lex Fridman
They’re artists really. They’re just…
They’re artists really. They’re just…
Lee Cronin
They were able to find out a lot, right? And looking at vertebrates and vertebrates, Cambrian explosion and all this stuff. And then came the genomic revolution and suddenly, everyone used gene sequencing. And Craig Venter’s a good example. I think he’s gone around the world in his yacht, just picking up samples, looking for new species. Where he’s just found new species of life just from sequencing. It’s amazing. So you have taxonomy, you have sequencing, and then you can also do a little bit of molecular archeology, like measure the samples and form some inference.
They were able to find out a lot, right? And looking at vertebrates and vertebrates, Cambrian explosion and all this stuff. And then came the genomic revolution and suddenly, everyone used gene sequencing. And Craig Venter’s a good example. I think he’s gone around the world in his yacht, just picking up samples, looking for new species. Where he’s just found new species of life just from sequencing. It’s amazing. So you have taxonomy, you have sequencing, and then you can also do a little bit of molecular archeology, like measure the samples and form some inference.
What we did is we were able to fingerprint… So we took a load of random samples from all of biology and we used mass spectrometry. And what we did now is not just look for individual molecules, but we looked for coexisting molecules where they had to look at their joint assembly space. And we were able to cut them apart and undergo recursion in the mass spec and infer some relationships. And we’re able to recapitulate the tree of life using mass spectroscopy, no sequencing and no drawing.
Lex Fridman
All right. Can you try to say that again, with a little more detail? So recreating, what does it take to recreate the tree of life? What does the reverse engineering process look like here?
All right. Can you try to say that again, with a little more detail? So recreating, what does it take to recreate the tree of life? What does the reverse engineering process look like here?
Lee Cronin
So what you do is you take an unknown sample, you bung it into the mass spec, you get… Because this comes from what you’re asking, what do you see in E. coli?
So what you do is you take an unknown sample, you bung it into the mass spec, you get… Because this comes from what you’re asking, what do you see in E. coli?
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Lee Cronin
And so, in E. coli, you don’t just see, it’s not the most sophisticated cells on earth make the most sophisticated molecules. It is the coexistence of lots of complex molecules above a threshold. And so, what we realized is you could fingerprint different life forms. So fungi make really complicated molecules. Why? Because they can’t move. They have to make everything onsite.
And so, in E. coli, you don’t just see, it’s not the most sophisticated cells on earth make the most sophisticated molecules. It is the coexistence of lots of complex molecules above a threshold. And so, what we realized is you could fingerprint different life forms. So fungi make really complicated molecules. Why? Because they can’t move. They have to make everything onsite.
Whereas, some animals are lazy, they can just go eat the fungi, and they don’t need to make very much. And so, what you do is you look at the, so you take, I don’t know, the fingerprint, maybe the top number of high molecular weight molecules you find in the sample, you fragment them to get their assembly indices, and then what you can do is you can infer common origins of molecules. You can do a molecular… When the reverse engineering of the assembly space, you can infer common roots and look at what’s called the joint assembly space.
But let’s translate that into the experiment. Take a sample, bung it in the mass spec, take the top, say, 10 molecules, fragment them, and that gives you one fingerprint. Then you do it for another sample, you get another fingerprint. Now the question is you say, “Hey, are these samples the same or different?” And that’s what we’ve been able to do and by basically looking at the assembly space that these molecules create. Without any knowledge of assembly theory, you are unable to do it. With a knowledge of assembly theory, you can reconstruct the tree.
Lex Fridman
How does knowing if they’re the same or different give you the tree?
How does knowing if they’re the same or different give you the tree?
Lee Cronin
Let’s go to two leaves on different branches on the tree, right? What you can do, by counting the number of differences, you can estimate how far away their origin was.
Let’s go to two leaves on different branches on the tree, right? What you can do, by counting the number of differences, you can estimate how far away their origin was.
Lex Fridman
Got it.
Got it.
Lee Cronin
And that’s what we do, and it just works. But when we realized you could even use assembly theory to recapitulate the tree of life with no gene sequencing, we were like, “Huh.”
And that’s what we do, and it just works. But when we realized you could even use assembly theory to recapitulate the tree of life with no gene sequencing, we were like, “Huh.”
Lex Fridman
So this is looking at samples that exist today in the world.
So this is looking at samples that exist today in the world.
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
What about things that are no longer exist? I mean, the tree contains information about the past-
What about things that are no longer exist? I mean, the tree contains information about the past-
Lee Cronin
I would-
I would-
Lex Fridman
… some of it is gone.
… some of it is gone.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, absolutely. I would love to get old fossil samples and apply assembly theory, mass spec, and see if we can find new forms of life that have, that are no longer amenable to gene sequencing, because the DNA is all gone. Because DNA and RNA’s quite unstable, but some of the more complex molecules might be there. They might give you a hint something new, or wouldn’t it be great if you-
Yeah, absolutely. I would love to get old fossil samples and apply assembly theory, mass spec, and see if we can find new forms of life that have, that are no longer amenable to gene sequencing, because the DNA is all gone. Because DNA and RNA’s quite unstable, but some of the more complex molecules might be there. They might give you a hint something new, or wouldn’t it be great if you-
Lex Fridman
I understand.
I understand.
Lee Cronin
… if you find a sample that’s worth really persevering and doing the proper extraction to PCR and so on and then sequence it, and then put it together-
… if you find a sample that’s worth really persevering and doing the proper extraction to PCR and so on and then sequence it, and then put it together-
Lex Fridman
So when a thing dies, you can still get some information about its complexity.
So when a thing dies, you can still get some information about its complexity.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. And it appears that you can do some dating. Now there are really good techniques. There’s radiocarbon dating, there is longer dating, going looking at radioactive minerals and so on. And you can also, in bone, you can look at… What happens after something dies, is you get what’s called racemization, where the chirality in the polymers basically changes and you get decomposition, and the deviation from the pure enantiomer to the mixture, you can have, it gives you a timescale on it, half-life, so you can date when it died. I want to use assembly theory to see if I can use it and date death and things, and trace the tree of life and also decomposition of molecules.
Yeah. And it appears that you can do some dating. Now there are really good techniques. There’s radiocarbon dating, there is longer dating, going looking at radioactive minerals and so on. And you can also, in bone, you can look at… What happens after something dies, is you get what’s called racemization, where the chirality in the polymers basically changes and you get decomposition, and the deviation from the pure enantiomer to the mixture, you can have, it gives you a timescale on it, half-life, so you can date when it died. I want to use assembly theory to see if I can use it and date death and things, and trace the tree of life and also decomposition of molecules.
Lex Fridman
Do you think it’s possible?
Do you think it’s possible?
Lee Cronin
Oh yeah, without a doubt. It may not be better than what… I was just at conference where there’s some brilliant people, looking isotope enrichment and looking at how life enriches isotopes, and they’re really sophisticated stuff that they’re doing. But I think there’s some fun to be had there, because it gives you another dimension of dating. How old is this molecule in terms of, or more importantly, how long ago was this molecule produced by life? More complex the molecule, the more prospect for decomposition, oxidation, reorganization, loss of chirality, and all that jazz.
Oh yeah, without a doubt. It may not be better than what… I was just at conference where there’s some brilliant people, looking isotope enrichment and looking at how life enriches isotopes, and they’re really sophisticated stuff that they’re doing. But I think there’s some fun to be had there, because it gives you another dimension of dating. How old is this molecule in terms of, or more importantly, how long ago was this molecule produced by life? More complex the molecule, the more prospect for decomposition, oxidation, reorganization, loss of chirality, and all that jazz.
But what life also does is it enriches. As you get older, the amount of carbon-13 in you goes up, because of the way the bonding is in carbon-13. So it has a slightly different strength, bond strength, than you. It’s called a kinetic isotope effect. So you can literally date how old you are or when you stop metabolizing. So you could date someone’s… how old they are, I think. I’m making this up, this might be right, but I think it’s roughly right. The amount of carbon-13 you have in you, you can estimate how old you are.
Lex Fridman
How old living humans are, or living organism?
How old living humans are, or living organism?
Lee Cronin
Yeah, yeah. You could say, “Oh, this person is 10 years old and this person is 30 years old, because they’ve been metabolizing more carbon and they’ve accumulated it.” That’s the basic idea. It’s probably completely wrong timescale-
Yeah, yeah. You could say, “Oh, this person is 10 years old and this person is 30 years old, because they’ve been metabolizing more carbon and they’ve accumulated it.” That’s the basic idea. It’s probably completely wrong timescale-
Response to criticism
Lex Fridman
Signatures of chemistry are fascinating. So you’ve been saying a lot of chemistry examples for assembly theory. What if we zoom out and look at a bigger scale of an object, like really complex objects, like humans or living organisms that are made up of millions or billions of other organisms, how do you try to apply assembly theory to that?
Signatures of chemistry are fascinating. So you’ve been saying a lot of chemistry examples for assembly theory. What if we zoom out and look at a bigger scale of an object, like really complex objects, like humans or living organisms that are made up of millions or billions of other organisms, how do you try to apply assembly theory to that?
Lee Cronin
At the moment, we should be able to do this to morphology in cells. So we’re looking at cell surfaces, and really, I’m to trying to extend further. It’s just that we work so hard to get this paper out and people to start discussing the ideas, but it’s kind of funny, because I think the penny is falling on this. So yeah-
At the moment, we should be able to do this to morphology in cells. So we’re looking at cell surfaces, and really, I’m to trying to extend further. It’s just that we work so hard to get this paper out and people to start discussing the ideas, but it’s kind of funny, because I think the penny is falling on this. So yeah-
Lex Fridman
What does that even… What’s it mean for a penny to be-
What does that even… What’s it mean for a penny to be-
Lee Cronin
I mean, no, the penny’s dropped, right? A lot of people were like, “It’s rubbish, it’s rubbish. You’ve insulted me. It’s wrong.” I mean, the paper got published on the 4th of October. It had 2.3 million engagements on Twitter and it’s been downloaded over a few hundred thousand times. And someone actually said to me, wrote to me and said, “This is an example of really bad writing and what not to do.” And I was like, if all of my papers got read this much, because that’s the objective, if I have a publishing a paper, I want people to read it. I want to write that badly again.
I mean, no, the penny’s dropped, right? A lot of people were like, “It’s rubbish, it’s rubbish. You’ve insulted me. It’s wrong.” I mean, the paper got published on the 4th of October. It had 2.3 million engagements on Twitter and it’s been downloaded over a few hundred thousand times. And someone actually said to me, wrote to me and said, “This is an example of really bad writing and what not to do.” And I was like, if all of my papers got read this much, because that’s the objective, if I have a publishing a paper, I want people to read it. I want to write that badly again.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I don’t know, what’s the deep insight here about the negativity in the space. I think it’s probably the immune system of the scientific community, making sure that there’s no bullshit that gets published and that it can overfy, it can do a lot of damage. It can shut down conversations in a way that’s not productive.
Yeah. I don’t know, what’s the deep insight here about the negativity in the space. I think it’s probably the immune system of the scientific community, making sure that there’s no bullshit that gets published and that it can overfy, it can do a lot of damage. It can shut down conversations in a way that’s not productive.
Lee Cronin
And I go back, I mean, I’ll answer your question about the hierarchy in assembly, but let’s go back to the perception people saying the paper was badly written. I mean, of course we could improve it. We could always improve the clarity.
And I go back, I mean, I’ll answer your question about the hierarchy in assembly, but let’s go back to the perception people saying the paper was badly written. I mean, of course we could improve it. We could always improve the clarity.
Lex Fridman
Let’s go there before we go to the hierarchy.
Let’s go there before we go to the hierarchy.
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
It has been criticized quite a bit, the paper. What has been some criticism that you’ve found most powerful, that you can understand and can you explain it?
It has been criticized quite a bit, the paper. What has been some criticism that you’ve found most powerful, that you can understand and can you explain it?
Lee Cronin
Yes. The most exciting criticism came from the evolutionary biologist telling me that he thought that origin of life was a solved problem. And I was like, “Whoa, we’re really onto something, because it’s clearly not.” And when you poked them on that they just said, “No. You you don’t understand evolution.” And I said, “No, no, I don’t think you understand that evolution had to occur before biology and there’s a gap.” That was really for me, that misunderstanding, and that did cause an immune response, which was really interesting.
Yes. The most exciting criticism came from the evolutionary biologist telling me that he thought that origin of life was a solved problem. And I was like, “Whoa, we’re really onto something, because it’s clearly not.” And when you poked them on that they just said, “No. You you don’t understand evolution.” And I said, “No, no, I don’t think you understand that evolution had to occur before biology and there’s a gap.” That was really for me, that misunderstanding, and that did cause an immune response, which was really interesting.
The second thing was the fact that physicists, the physicists were actually really polite, really nice about it. But they just said, “Huh, we’re not really sure about the initial conditions thing. But this is a really big debate that we should certainly get into, because the emergence of life was not encoded in the initial conditions of the universe.” And I think assembly theory shows why it can’t be. I’ll say that-
Lex Fridman
Okay. Sure. If you could say that again.
Okay. Sure. If you could say that again.
Lee Cronin
The origin of, the emergence of life was not and cannot, in principle, be encoded in the initial conditions of the universe.
The origin of, the emergence of life was not and cannot, in principle, be encoded in the initial conditions of the universe.
Lex Fridman
Just to clarify what you mean by life is what, high assembly index objects?
Just to clarify what you mean by life is what, high assembly index objects?
Lee Cronin
Yeah. And this goes back to your favorite subject.
Yeah. And this goes back to your favorite subject.
Lex Fridman
What’s that?
What’s that?
Lee Cronin
Time.
Time.
Lex Fridman
Right. So why? What does time have to do with it?
Right. So why? What does time have to do with it?
Lee Cronin
I mean, probably we can come back to it later, but I think it might be, if we have time.
I mean, probably we can come back to it later, but I think it might be, if we have time.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lee Cronin
But I think that, I think I now understand how to explain how… Lots of people got angry with the assembly paper, but also, the ramifications of this is how time is fundamental in the universe and this notion of commentorial spaces. And there are so many layers on this, but you have to become an… I think you have to become an intuitionist mathematician and you have to abandon Platonic mathematics. And also, Platonic mathematics is left physics astray, but there’s a lot to unpack there. So we can go to the-
But I think that, I think I now understand how to explain how… Lots of people got angry with the assembly paper, but also, the ramifications of this is how time is fundamental in the universe and this notion of commentorial spaces. And there are so many layers on this, but you have to become an… I think you have to become an intuitionist mathematician and you have to abandon Platonic mathematics. And also, Platonic mathematics is left physics astray, but there’s a lot to unpack there. So we can go to the-
Lex Fridman
Platonic mathematic, okay. It’s okay, the evolutionary biologists criticized, because the origin of life is understood and not, it doesn’t require an explanation that involves physics.
Platonic mathematic, okay. It’s okay, the evolutionary biologists criticized, because the origin of life is understood and not, it doesn’t require an explanation that involves physics.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. It-
Yeah. It-
Lex Fridman
That’s their statement.
That’s their statement.
Lee Cronin
Well, I mean, they said lots of confusing statements. Basically, I realized the evolutionary biology community that were vocal, and some of them were really rude, really spiteful, and needlessly so, right? Because look, I didn’t, people misunderstand publication as well. Some of the peoples have said, “How dare this be published in Nature. What a terrible journal.” And it really, and I watched, said to people, “Look, this is a brand new idea that’s not only potentially going to change the way we look at biology, it’s going to change the way we look at the universe.”
Well, I mean, they said lots of confusing statements. Basically, I realized the evolutionary biology community that were vocal, and some of them were really rude, really spiteful, and needlessly so, right? Because look, I didn’t, people misunderstand publication as well. Some of the peoples have said, “How dare this be published in Nature. What a terrible journal.” And it really, and I watched, said to people, “Look, this is a brand new idea that’s not only potentially going to change the way we look at biology, it’s going to change the way we look at the universe.”
And everyone’s saying, “How dare, how dare you be so grandiose?” I’m like, “No, no, no. This is not hype. We’re not saying we’ve invented some, I don’t know, we’ve discovered a alien in a closet somewhere, just for hype. We genuinely mean this to genuinely have the impact or asked the question. And the way people jumped on that was a really bad precedent for young people who want to actually do something new.
Because this makes a bold claim, and the chances are that it’s not correct. But what I wanted to do is a couple of things. Is I wanted to make a bold claim that was precise and testable and correctable. Not another wooly information-in-biology argument, information-churring machine, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. A concrete series of statements that can be falsified and explored, and either the theory could be destroyed or built upon.
Lex Fridman
Well, what about the criticism of you’re just putting a bunch of sexy names on something that’s already obvious?
Well, what about the criticism of you’re just putting a bunch of sexy names on something that’s already obvious?
Lee Cronin
Yeah, that’s really good. So the assembly index of a molecule is not obvious. No one had measure it before. And no one has thought to quantify selection, complexity, and copy number before, in such a primitive, quantifiable way. I think the nice thing about this paper-
Yeah, that’s really good. So the assembly index of a molecule is not obvious. No one had measure it before. And no one has thought to quantify selection, complexity, and copy number before, in such a primitive, quantifiable way. I think the nice thing about this paper-
Lee Cronin
… quantifiable way. I think the nice thing about this paper, this paper is a tribute to all the people that understand that biology does something very interesting. Some people call it negentropy. Some people call it, think about organizational principles that lots of people were not shocked by the paper because they’d done it before. A lot of the arguments we got, some people said, “Oh, it’s rubbish. Oh, by the way, I had this idea 20 years before.” I was like, ” Which one?” Is it the rubbish part or the really revolutionary part.
… quantifiable way. I think the nice thing about this paper, this paper is a tribute to all the people that understand that biology does something very interesting. Some people call it negentropy. Some people call it, think about organizational principles that lots of people were not shocked by the paper because they’d done it before. A lot of the arguments we got, some people said, “Oh, it’s rubbish. Oh, by the way, I had this idea 20 years before.” I was like, ” Which one?” Is it the rubbish part or the really revolutionary part.
So this kind of plucked two strings at once. It plucked the there is something interesting that biology are, we can see around this, but we haven’t quantified yet. And what this is, is the first stab at quantifying that, so the fact that people said “This is obvious.” But if it’s obvious, why have you not done it?
Lex Fridman
Sure. But there’s a few things to say there. One is, this is in part of philosophical framework because it’s not like you can apply this generally to any object in the universe. It’s very chemistry focused.
Sure. But there’s a few things to say there. One is, this is in part of philosophical framework because it’s not like you can apply this generally to any object in the universe. It’s very chemistry focused.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, well, I think you will be able to, we just haven’t got there robustly. So if we can say how can we… Let’s go up a level. So if we go up from level, let’s go up from molecules to cells because you would jump to people and I jump to emoticons and both are good and they will be assembly…
Yeah, well, I think you will be able to, we just haven’t got there robustly. So if we can say how can we… Let’s go up a level. So if we go up from level, let’s go up from molecules to cells because you would jump to people and I jump to emoticons and both are good and they will be assembly…
Lex Fridman
Lets stick with cells, yeah. Good point.
Lets stick with cells, yeah. Good point.
Lee Cronin
If we go from molecules to assemblies and let’s take acellular assembly. A nice thing about a cell is you can tell the difference between a eukaryote and a prokaryote, right? The organalles are specialized differently when then look at the cell surface and the cell surface has different glycosylation patterns and these cells will stick together. Now let’s go up a level in multicellular creatures you have cellular differentiation.
If we go from molecules to assemblies and let’s take acellular assembly. A nice thing about a cell is you can tell the difference between a eukaryote and a prokaryote, right? The organalles are specialized differently when then look at the cell surface and the cell surface has different glycosylation patterns and these cells will stick together. Now let’s go up a level in multicellular creatures you have cellular differentiation.
Now if you think about how embryos develop, you go all the way back, those cells undergo differentiation on a causal way that’s biomechanically a feedback between the genetics and biomechanics. I think we can use assembly theory to apply to tissue types. We can even apply it to different cell disease types. So that’s what we’re doing next. But we are trying to walk… The thing is, I’m trying to, I want a leap ahead to go, whoa, we apply it to culture. Clearly you can apply it to memes and culture. And we’ve also applied to assembly theory to CA’s and not as you think…
Lex Fridman
Cellular automaton, by the way.
Cellular automaton, by the way.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, yeah. Cellular automaton, not just as you think. Different CA rules were invented by different people at different times. And one of my coworkers, very talented chap basically was like, “Oh, I can realize that different people had different ideas with different rules and they copied each other and made slightly different cellular automaton rules and looked at them online.” And so he was able to refer an assembly index and copy number of rule, whatever, doing this thing. But I digress.
Yeah, yeah. Cellular automaton, not just as you think. Different CA rules were invented by different people at different times. And one of my coworkers, very talented chap basically was like, “Oh, I can realize that different people had different ideas with different rules and they copied each other and made slightly different cellular automaton rules and looked at them online.” And so he was able to refer an assembly index and copy number of rule, whatever, doing this thing. But I digress.
But it does show you can apply it at a higher scale. So what do we need to do to apply assembly theory to things? We need to agree, there’s a common set of building blocks. So in a cell, well, in a multicellular creature, you need to look back in time. So there is the initial cell, which the creature is fertilized and then starts to grow and then there is cell differentiation. And you have to then make that causal chain both on those. So that requires development of the organism in time. Or if you look at the cell surfaces and the cell types, they’ve got different features on the cell walls and inside the cell. So we’re building up, but obviously I want a leap to things like emoticons, language, mathematical theorems.
Lex Fridman
But that’s a very large number of steps to get from a molecule to the human brain.
But that’s a very large number of steps to get from a molecule to the human brain.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, and I think they are related, but in hierarchies of emergence. So you shouldn’t compare them. I mean the assembly index of a human brain, what does that even mean? Well, maybe we can look at the morphology of the human brain, say all human brains have these number of features in common. If they have those number… And then let’s look at a brain in a whale or a dolphin or a chimpanzee or a bird and say, “Okay, let’s look at the assembly indices and number of features in these.” And now the copy number is just the number of how many birds are there, how many chimpanzees are there, how many humans are there?
Yeah, and I think they are related, but in hierarchies of emergence. So you shouldn’t compare them. I mean the assembly index of a human brain, what does that even mean? Well, maybe we can look at the morphology of the human brain, say all human brains have these number of features in common. If they have those number… And then let’s look at a brain in a whale or a dolphin or a chimpanzee or a bird and say, “Okay, let’s look at the assembly indices and number of features in these.” And now the copy number is just the number of how many birds are there, how many chimpanzees are there, how many humans are there?
Lex Fridman
But then you have to discover for that the features that you would be looking for.
But then you have to discover for that the features that you would be looking for.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, and that means you need to have some idea of the anatomy.
Yeah, and that means you need to have some idea of the anatomy.
Lex Fridman
But is there an automated way to discover features?
But is there an automated way to discover features?
Lee Cronin
I guess so. And I think this is a good way to apply machine learning and image recognition just to basically characterize things.
I guess so. And I think this is a good way to apply machine learning and image recognition just to basically characterize things.
Lex Fridman
To apply compression to it, to see what emerges, and then use the features used as part of the compression, as the measurement of… As the thing that is searched for when you’re measuring assembly index and copy number.
To apply compression to it, to see what emerges, and then use the features used as part of the compression, as the measurement of… As the thing that is searched for when you’re measuring assembly index and copy number.
Lee Cronin
And the compression has to be, remember the assembly universe, which is you have to go from assembly possible to assembly contingent and that jump from… Because assembly possible all possible brains, all possible features all the time. But we know that on the tree of life and also on the lineage of life, going back to Luca, the human brain just didn’t spring into existence yesterday, it’s a long lineage of brains going all the way back. And so if we could do assembly theory to understand the development, not just in evolutionary history, but in biological development, as you grow, we are going to learn something more.
And the compression has to be, remember the assembly universe, which is you have to go from assembly possible to assembly contingent and that jump from… Because assembly possible all possible brains, all possible features all the time. But we know that on the tree of life and also on the lineage of life, going back to Luca, the human brain just didn’t spring into existence yesterday, it’s a long lineage of brains going all the way back. And so if we could do assembly theory to understand the development, not just in evolutionary history, but in biological development, as you grow, we are going to learn something more.
Lex Fridman
What would be amazing is if you can use assembly theory, this framework to show the increase in the assembly index associated with, I don’t know, cultures or pieces of text like language or images and so on and illustrate without knowing the data ahead of time, just kind like you did with NASA that you were able to demonstrate that it applies in those other contexts. I mean, and that probably wouldn’t at first, and you have to evolve the theory somehow. You have to change it, you have to expand it.
What would be amazing is if you can use assembly theory, this framework to show the increase in the assembly index associated with, I don’t know, cultures or pieces of text like language or images and so on and illustrate without knowing the data ahead of time, just kind like you did with NASA that you were able to demonstrate that it applies in those other contexts. I mean, and that probably wouldn’t at first, and you have to evolve the theory somehow. You have to change it, you have to expand it.
Lee Cronin
I think so.
I think so.
Lex Fridman
I guess this is as a paper, a first step in saying, okay, “Can we create a general framework for measuring complexity of objects. For measuring life, the complexity of living organisms.”
I guess this is as a paper, a first step in saying, okay, “Can we create a general framework for measuring complexity of objects. For measuring life, the complexity of living organisms.”
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s what this is reaching for.
That’s what this is reaching for.
Lee Cronin
That is the first step. And also to say, look, we have a way of quantifying selection and evolution in a fairly, not mundane, but a fairly mechanical way because before now… The ground truth for it was very subjective. Whereas here we’re talking about clean observables and there’s going to be layers on that. I mean, with collaborators right now, we already think we can do assembly theory on language. And not only that, wouldn’t it be great if we can figure out how under pressure language is going to involve and be more efficient? Because you’re going to want to transmit things.
That is the first step. And also to say, look, we have a way of quantifying selection and evolution in a fairly, not mundane, but a fairly mechanical way because before now… The ground truth for it was very subjective. Whereas here we’re talking about clean observables and there’s going to be layers on that. I mean, with collaborators right now, we already think we can do assembly theory on language. And not only that, wouldn’t it be great if we can figure out how under pressure language is going to involve and be more efficient? Because you’re going to want to transmit things.
And again, it’s not just about compression, it is about understanding how you can make the most of the architecture you’ve already built. And I think this is something beautiful that evolution does. We are reusing those architectures. We can’t just abandon our evolutionary history. And if you don’t want to abandon your evolutionary history and you know that evolution has been happening, then assembly theory works.
And I think that’s a key comment I want to make is that assembly theory is great for understanding when evolution has been used. The next jump is when we go to technology, because of course, if you take the M3 processor… I want to buy, I haven’t bought one yet. I can’t justify it, but I want it at some point. The M3 processor arguably is there’s quite a lot of features, a quite large number. The M2 came before it, then the M1 all the way back, you can apply assembly theory to microprocessor architecture. It doesn’t take a huge leap to see that.
Lex Fridman
I’m a Linux guy, by the way. So your examples go way over my head.
I’m a Linux guy, by the way. So your examples go way over my head.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, well, whatever…
Yeah, well, whatever…
Lex Fridman
Is that a fruit company of some sort? I don’t even know. Yeah, there’s a lot of interesting stuff to ask about language. Like you could look at… How would that work? You could look at GPT-1, GPT-2, GPT-3, 3, 5, 4, and try to analyze the kind of language it produces. I mean, that’s almost trying to look at assembly index of intelligence systems.
Is that a fruit company of some sort? I don’t even know. Yeah, there’s a lot of interesting stuff to ask about language. Like you could look at… How would that work? You could look at GPT-1, GPT-2, GPT-3, 3, 5, 4, and try to analyze the kind of language it produces. I mean, that’s almost trying to look at assembly index of intelligence systems.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, I mean I think the thing about large language models, and this is a whole hobbyhorse I have at the moment, is that obviously they’re all about… The evidence of evolution in the large language model comes from all the people that produced all the language. And that’s really interesting. And all the corrections in the Mechanical Turk, right?
Yeah, I mean I think the thing about large language models, and this is a whole hobbyhorse I have at the moment, is that obviously they’re all about… The evidence of evolution in the large language model comes from all the people that produced all the language. And that’s really interesting. And all the corrections in the Mechanical Turk, right?
Lex Fridman
Sure. But that’s part of the history, part of the memory of the system.
Sure. But that’s part of the history, part of the memory of the system.
Lee Cronin
Exactly. So it would be really interesting to basically use an assembly based approach to making language in a hierarchy. My guess is that we might be able to build a new type of large language model that uses assembly theory, that it has more understanding of the past and how things were created. Basically the thing with LLMs is like, everything everywhere, all at once, splat and make the user happy. So there’s not much intelligence in the model. The model is how the human interacts with the model. But wouldn’t it be great if we could understand how to embed more intelligence in the system?
Exactly. So it would be really interesting to basically use an assembly based approach to making language in a hierarchy. My guess is that we might be able to build a new type of large language model that uses assembly theory, that it has more understanding of the past and how things were created. Basically the thing with LLMs is like, everything everywhere, all at once, splat and make the user happy. So there’s not much intelligence in the model. The model is how the human interacts with the model. But wouldn’t it be great if we could understand how to embed more intelligence in the system?
Lex Fridman
What do you mean by intelligence there? You seem to associate intelligence with history or memory?
What do you mean by intelligence there? You seem to associate intelligence with history or memory?
Lee Cronin
Yeah. I think selection produces intelligence.
Yeah. I think selection produces intelligence.
Lex Fridman
You’re almost implying that selection is intelligence. No.
You’re almost implying that selection is intelligence. No.
Lee Cronin
Kind of, I would go out in limb and say that, but I think it’s a little bit more, human beings have the ability to abstract and they can break beyond selection. And this is… Darwinian selection, because a human being doesn’t have to basically do trial and error, but they can think about it and say, “Oh, that’s a bad idea, won’t do that.” And then technologies and so on.
Kind of, I would go out in limb and say that, but I think it’s a little bit more, human beings have the ability to abstract and they can break beyond selection. And this is… Darwinian selection, because a human being doesn’t have to basically do trial and error, but they can think about it and say, “Oh, that’s a bad idea, won’t do that.” And then technologies and so on.
Lex Fridman
So we escaped Darwinian evolution and now we’re onto some other kind of evolution, I guess? Higher level.
So we escaped Darwinian evolution and now we’re onto some other kind of evolution, I guess? Higher level.
Lee Cronin
And assembly theory will measure that as well, right? Because it’s all a lineage.
And assembly theory will measure that as well, right? Because it’s all a lineage.
Kolmogorov complexity
Lex Fridman
Okay. Another piece of criticism or by way of question is how is assembly theory or maybe assembly index different from Kolmogorov complexity? So for people who don’t know, a Kolmogorov complexity of an object is the length of a shortest computer program that produces the object as output.
Okay. Another piece of criticism or by way of question is how is assembly theory or maybe assembly index different from Kolmogorov complexity? So for people who don’t know, a Kolmogorov complexity of an object is the length of a shortest computer program that produces the object as output.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, there seems to be a disconnect between the computational approach. So Kolmogorov measure requires a Turing machine, requires a computer, and that’s one thing. And the other thing is assembly theory is supposed to trace the process by which life evolution emerged, right? There’s a main thing there. There are lots of other layers.
Yeah, there seems to be a disconnect between the computational approach. So Kolmogorov measure requires a Turing machine, requires a computer, and that’s one thing. And the other thing is assembly theory is supposed to trace the process by which life evolution emerged, right? There’s a main thing there. There are lots of other layers.
So Kolmogorov complexity, you can approximate Kolmogorov complexity, but it’s not really telling you very much about the actual… It’s really telling you about your dataset, compression of your dataset.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Lee Cronin
And so that doesn’t really help you identify… The turtle in this case is the computer. And so what assembly theory does is, I’m going to say, it’s a trigger warning for anyone listening who loves complexity theory. I think that we’re going to show that AIT is a very important subset of assembly theory because here’s what happens. I think that assembly theory allows us to go understand when were selections occurring. Selection produces factories and things, factories in the end produce computers, and then algorithmic information theory comes out of that. The frustration I’ve had with looking at life through this kind of information theory is it doesn’t take into account causation. So the main difference between assembly theory and all these complexity measures is there’s no causal chain. And I think that’s the main…
And so that doesn’t really help you identify… The turtle in this case is the computer. And so what assembly theory does is, I’m going to say, it’s a trigger warning for anyone listening who loves complexity theory. I think that we’re going to show that AIT is a very important subset of assembly theory because here’s what happens. I think that assembly theory allows us to go understand when were selections occurring. Selection produces factories and things, factories in the end produce computers, and then algorithmic information theory comes out of that. The frustration I’ve had with looking at life through this kind of information theory is it doesn’t take into account causation. So the main difference between assembly theory and all these complexity measures is there’s no causal chain. And I think that’s the main…
Lex Fridman
That’s the causal chain is at the core of assembly theory.
That’s the causal chain is at the core of assembly theory.
Lee Cronin
Exactly. And if you’ve got all your data in a computer memory, all the data’s the same. You can access it in the same way. You don’t care. You just compress it. And you either look at the program runtime or the shortest program. And that for me is absolutely not capturing what it is. What selection does.
Exactly. And if you’ve got all your data in a computer memory, all the data’s the same. You can access it in the same way. You don’t care. You just compress it. And you either look at the program runtime or the shortest program. And that for me is absolutely not capturing what it is. What selection does.
Lex Fridman
But assembly theory looks at objects. It doesn’t have information about the object history. It’s going to try to infer that history by looking for the shortest history, right? The object doesn’t have a Wikipedia page that goes with it about its history.
But assembly theory looks at objects. It doesn’t have information about the object history. It’s going to try to infer that history by looking for the shortest history, right? The object doesn’t have a Wikipedia page that goes with it about its history.
Lee Cronin
I would say it does in a way, and it is fascinating to look at. So you’ve just got the object and you have no other information about the object. What assembly theory allows you to do with just with the object is to, and the word infer is correct, I agree with infer. You say, well, that’s not the history. But something really interesting comes from this.
I would say it does in a way, and it is fascinating to look at. So you’ve just got the object and you have no other information about the object. What assembly theory allows you to do with just with the object is to, and the word infer is correct, I agree with infer. You say, well, that’s not the history. But something really interesting comes from this.
The shortest path is inferred from the object. That is the worst case scenario if you have no machine to make it. So that tells you about the depth of that object in time. And so what assembly theory allows you to do is without considering any other circumstances, to say from this object, how deep is this object in time if we just treat the object as itself without any other constraints? And that’s super powerful because the shortest path then allows you to say, “Oh, this object wasn’t just created randomly. There was a process.” And so assembly theory is not meant to one up AIT or to ignore the factory. It’s just to say, “Hey, there was a factory and how big was that factory? And how deep in time is it?”
Lex Fridman
But it’s still computationally very difficult to compute that history, right? For complex objects?
But it’s still computationally very difficult to compute that history, right? For complex objects?
Lee Cronin
It is. It becomes harder. But one of the thing that’s super nice is that it constrains your initial conditions, right?
It is. It becomes harder. But one of the thing that’s super nice is that it constrains your initial conditions, right?
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Lee Cronin
It constrains where you’re going to be. So if you take, say, imagine… So one of the things we’re doing right now is applying assembly theory to drug discovery. Now, what everyone’s doing right now is taking all the proteins and looking at the proteins and looking at molecules, doppler proteins, why not instead, look at the molecules that are involved in interacting with the receptors over time, rather than thinking about and use the molecules, evolve over time as a proxy for how the proteins evolved over time. And then use that to constrain your drug discovery process.
It constrains where you’re going to be. So if you take, say, imagine… So one of the things we’re doing right now is applying assembly theory to drug discovery. Now, what everyone’s doing right now is taking all the proteins and looking at the proteins and looking at molecules, doppler proteins, why not instead, look at the molecules that are involved in interacting with the receptors over time, rather than thinking about and use the molecules, evolve over time as a proxy for how the proteins evolved over time. And then use that to constrain your drug discovery process.
You flip the problem 180 and focus on the molecule evolution rather than the protein. And so you can guess in the future what might happen. So you rather than having to consider all possible molecules, you know where to focus. And that’s the same thing if you’re looking at in assembly spaces for an object where you don’t know the entire history, but you know that in the history of this object, it’s not going to have some other motif there that it doesn’t apply. It doesn’t appear in the past.
Lex Fridman
But just even for the drug discovery point you made, don’t you have to simulate all of chemistry to figure out how to come up with constraints?
But just even for the drug discovery point you made, don’t you have to simulate all of chemistry to figure out how to come up with constraints?
Lee Cronin
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
And the molecules and the…
And the molecules and the…
Lee Cronin
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know enough about protein.
I don’t know enough about protein.
Lee Cronin
Well, this is another thing that I think causes… Because this paper goes across so many boundaries. So chemists have looked at this and said, “This is not correct reaction.” It’s like, no, it’s a graph.
Well, this is another thing that I think causes… Because this paper goes across so many boundaries. So chemists have looked at this and said, “This is not correct reaction.” It’s like, no, it’s a graph.
Lex Fridman
Sure, there’s assembly index and shortest path examples here on chemistry.
Sure, there’s assembly index and shortest path examples here on chemistry.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, and what you do is you look at the minimal constraints on that graph. Of course it has some mapping to the synthesis, but actually you don’t have to know all of chemistry. You can build up the constraints space rather nicely. But this is just at the beginning, right? There are so many directions this could go in and as I said, it could all be wrong, but hopefully it’s less wrong.
Yeah, and what you do is you look at the minimal constraints on that graph. Of course it has some mapping to the synthesis, but actually you don’t have to know all of chemistry. You can build up the constraints space rather nicely. But this is just at the beginning, right? There are so many directions this could go in and as I said, it could all be wrong, but hopefully it’s less wrong.
Lex Fridman
What about the little criticism I saw of… By way of question, do you consider the different probabilities of each reaction in the chain so that there could be different… When you look at a chain of events that led up to the creation of an object, doesn’t it matter that some parts in the chain are less likely than others?
What about the little criticism I saw of… By way of question, do you consider the different probabilities of each reaction in the chain so that there could be different… When you look at a chain of events that led up to the creation of an object, doesn’t it matter that some parts in the chain are less likely than others?
Lee Cronin
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
It doesn’t matter?
It doesn’t matter?
Lee Cronin
No, no. Well, let’s go back. So no, not less likely, but react… So, no. So let’s go back to what we’re looking at here. So the assembly index is the minimal path that could have created that object probabilistically. So imagine you have all your atoms in a plasma, you’ve got enough energy, there’s collisions. What is the quickest way you could zip out that molecule with no reaction constraints?
No, no. Well, let’s go back. So no, not less likely, but react… So, no. So let’s go back to what we’re looking at here. So the assembly index is the minimal path that could have created that object probabilistically. So imagine you have all your atoms in a plasma, you’ve got enough energy, there’s collisions. What is the quickest way you could zip out that molecule with no reaction constraints?
Lex Fridman
How do you define quickest there then?
How do you define quickest there then?
Lee Cronin
It’s just basically walk on a random graph. So we make an assumption that basically the timescale for forming the bonds. So no, I don’t want to say that because then it’s going to have people getting obsessing about this point. And your criticism is a really good one. What we’re trying to say is this puts a lower bound on something. Of course, some reactions are less possible than others, but actually I don’t think chemical reactions exist.
It’s just basically walk on a random graph. So we make an assumption that basically the timescale for forming the bonds. So no, I don’t want to say that because then it’s going to have people getting obsessing about this point. And your criticism is a really good one. What we’re trying to say is this puts a lower bound on something. Of course, some reactions are less possible than others, but actually I don’t think chemical reactions exist.
Lex Fridman
Oh, boy. What does that mean? Why don’t chemical reactions exist?
Oh, boy. What does that mean? Why don’t chemical reactions exist?
Lee Cronin
I’m writing a paper right now that I keep being told I have to finish, and it’s called ‘The Origin of Chemical Reactions.’ And it merely says that reactivity exists as controlled by the laws of quantum mechanics. And reactions, chemists put names on reactions. So you can have, I don’t know, the Wittig reaction, which is by Wittig. You could have the Suzuki reaction, which is by Suzuki.
I’m writing a paper right now that I keep being told I have to finish, and it’s called ‘The Origin of Chemical Reactions.’ And it merely says that reactivity exists as controlled by the laws of quantum mechanics. And reactions, chemists put names on reactions. So you can have, I don’t know, the Wittig reaction, which is by Wittig. You could have the Suzuki reaction, which is by Suzuki.
Now what are these reactions? So these reactions are constrained by the following. They’re constrained by the fact they’re on planet Earth, 1G, 298 Kelvin, 1 Bar. So these are constraints. They’re also constrained by the chemical composition of earth, oxygen availability, all this stuff. And that then allows us to focus in our chemistry. So when a chemist does a reaction, that’s a really nice compressed shorthand for constraint application, glass flask, pure reagent, temperature, pressure, boom, boom, boom, control, control control, control control.
So of course we have bond energies. So the bond energies are kind of intrinsic in a vacuum. So the bond energy, you have to have a bond. And so for assembly theory to work, you have to have a bond, which means that bond has to give the molecule a half life. So you’re probably going to find later on that some bonds are weaker and that you are going to miss in mass spectrum, when you look at the assembly of some molecules, you’re going to miscount the assembly of the molecule. It falls apart too quickly because the bonds just form. But you can solve that with looking at infrared.
So when people think about the probability, they’re kind of misunderstanding. Assembly theory says nothing about the chemistry because chemistry is chemistry and their constraints are put in by biology. There was no chemist on the origin of life unless you believe in the chemist in the sky… And it’s like Santa Claus, they had a lot of work to do, but chemical reactions do not exist and the constraints that allow chemical transformations to occur do exist.
Lex Fridman
Okay, okay. So it’s constraint. So there’s no chemical reactions. It’s all constraint application, which enables the emergence of… What’s a different word for chemical reaction?
Okay, okay. So it’s constraint. So there’s no chemical reactions. It’s all constraint application, which enables the emergence of… What’s a different word for chemical reaction?
Lee Cronin
Transformation?
Transformation?
Lex Fridman
Transformation.
Transformation.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, like a function. It’s a function, but no, but I love chemical reactions as a shorthand. And so the chemists don’t all go mad. I mean, of course chemical reactions exist on earth.
Yeah, like a function. It’s a function, but no, but I love chemical reactions as a shorthand. And so the chemists don’t all go mad. I mean, of course chemical reactions exist on earth.
Lex Fridman
It’s a shorthand.
It’s a shorthand.
Lee Cronin
It’s a shorthand for these constraints.
It’s a shorthand for these constraints.
Lex Fridman
So assuming all these constraints that we’ve been using for so long that we just assume that that’s what was the case in natural language conversation.
So assuming all these constraints that we’ve been using for so long that we just assume that that’s what was the case in natural language conversation.
Lee Cronin
Exactly. The grammar of chemistry of course emerges in reactions and we can use them reliably, but I do not think the Wittig reaction is accessible on Venus.
Exactly. The grammar of chemistry of course emerges in reactions and we can use them reliably, but I do not think the Wittig reaction is accessible on Venus.
Lex Fridman
Right, and this is useful to remember to frame it as constraint application is useful for when you zoom out to the bigger picture of the universe and looking at the chemistry of the universe and then starting to apply assembly theory. That’s interesting. That’s really interesting. But we’ve also pissed off the chemists now.
Right, and this is useful to remember to frame it as constraint application is useful for when you zoom out to the bigger picture of the universe and looking at the chemistry of the universe and then starting to apply assembly theory. That’s interesting. That’s really interesting. But we’ve also pissed off the chemists now.
Lee Cronin
Oh, they’re pretty happy, but well, most of them.
Oh, they’re pretty happy, but well, most of them.
Lex Fridman
No. Everybody deep down is happy, I think. They’re just sometimes feisty, that’s how they have fun.
No. Everybody deep down is happy, I think. They’re just sometimes feisty, that’s how they have fun.
Lee Cronin
Everyone is grumpy on some days when you challenge… The problem with this paper is… It’s almost like I went to a park, it’s like I used to do this occasionally when I was young. Go to a meeting and just find a way to offend everyone at the meeting simultaneously. Even the factions that don’t like each other, they’re all unified in the hatred of you just offending them. This paper, it feels like the person that went to the party and offended everyone simultaneously. So stop fighting with themselves and just focused on this paper.
Everyone is grumpy on some days when you challenge… The problem with this paper is… It’s almost like I went to a park, it’s like I used to do this occasionally when I was young. Go to a meeting and just find a way to offend everyone at the meeting simultaneously. Even the factions that don’t like each other, they’re all unified in the hatred of you just offending them. This paper, it feels like the person that went to the party and offended everyone simultaneously. So stop fighting with themselves and just focused on this paper.
Nature review process
Lex Fridman
Maybe just a little insider interesting information. What were the editors of Nature, what the reviews and so on, how difficult was that process because this is a pretty big paper.
Maybe just a little insider interesting information. What were the editors of Nature, what the reviews and so on, how difficult was that process because this is a pretty big paper.
Lee Cronin
So when we originally sent the paper, we sent the paper and the editor said that… This is quite a long process. We sent the paper and the editor gave us some feedback and said, “I don’t think it’s that interesting.” Or “It’s hard. It’s hard concept.” And the editor gave us some feedback and Sarah and I took a year to rewrite the paper.
So when we originally sent the paper, we sent the paper and the editor said that… This is quite a long process. We sent the paper and the editor gave us some feedback and said, “I don’t think it’s that interesting.” Or “It’s hard. It’s hard concept.” And the editor gave us some feedback and Sarah and I took a year to rewrite the paper.
Lex Fridman
Was the Nature of the feedback very specific on this part? This part? Or was it like, “What are you guys smoking? What kind of crack are you taking?”
Was the Nature of the feedback very specific on this part? This part? Or was it like, “What are you guys smoking? What kind of crack are you taking?”
Lee Cronin
Yeah, it was kind of the latter. What are you smoking.
Yeah, it was kind of the latter. What are you smoking.
Lex Fridman
Okay. But polite and there’s promise.
Okay. But polite and there’s promise.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. Well the thing is the editor was really critical, but in a really professional way. And I mean for me, this was the way science should happen. So when it came back, we had too many equations in the paper. If you look at the pre-print, there’s just equations everywhere, like 23 equations. And when I said to Abhishek, who was the first author, we’ve got to remove all the equations, but my assembly equations staying in Abhishek was like, “No, we can’t.”
Yeah. Well the thing is the editor was really critical, but in a really professional way. And I mean for me, this was the way science should happen. So when it came back, we had too many equations in the paper. If you look at the pre-print, there’s just equations everywhere, like 23 equations. And when I said to Abhishek, who was the first author, we’ve got to remove all the equations, but my assembly equations staying in Abhishek was like, “No, we can’t.”
I said, “Well look, if we want to explain this to people, there’s a real challenge.” And so Sarah and I went through the, I think it was actually 160 versions of the paper, but basically we got to version 40 or something. We said, “Right, zero it start again.” So we wrote the whole paper again. We knew the entire…
Lex Fridman
Amazing.
Amazing.
Lee Cronin
And we just went bit by bit by bit and said, “What is it we want to say?” And then we sent the paper in and we expected it to be rejected and not even go to review. And then we got notification back, it had gone to review and we were like, “Oh my God, it’s so going to get rejected. How’s it going to get rejected?” Because the first assembly paper on the mass spec we sent to Nature went through six rounds of review and rejected. And by a chemist that just said, “I don’t believe you. You must be committing fraud.”
And we just went bit by bit by bit and said, “What is it we want to say?” And then we sent the paper in and we expected it to be rejected and not even go to review. And then we got notification back, it had gone to review and we were like, “Oh my God, it’s so going to get rejected. How’s it going to get rejected?” Because the first assembly paper on the mass spec we sent to Nature went through six rounds of review and rejected. And by a chemist that just said, “I don’t believe you. You must be committing fraud.”
And long story, probably a boring story, but in this case it went out to review, the comments came back and the comments were incredibly, they were very deep comments from all the reviewers. But the nice thing was the reviewers were kind of very critical, but not dismissive. They were like, “Oh, really? Explain this, explain this, explain this, explain this.”
Lex Fridman
That’s great.
That’s great.
Lee Cronin
Are you sure it’s not Kolmogorov? Are you sure it’s not this? And we went through I think three rounds of review pretty quick and the editor went, yeah, it’s in.
Are you sure it’s not Kolmogorov? Are you sure it’s not this? And we went through I think three rounds of review pretty quick and the editor went, yeah, it’s in.
Lex Fridman
But maybe you could just comment on the whole process. You’ve published some pretty huge papers on all kinds of topics within chemistry and beyond. Some of them have some little spice in them, a little spice of crazy like Tom Waits, says, “I like my Tom with a little drop of poison.” It’s not a mundane paper. So what’s it like psychologically to go through all this process to keep getting rejected, to get reviews from people that don’t get the paper or all that kind of stuff? Just from a question of a scientist, what is that like?
But maybe you could just comment on the whole process. You’ve published some pretty huge papers on all kinds of topics within chemistry and beyond. Some of them have some little spice in them, a little spice of crazy like Tom Waits, says, “I like my Tom with a little drop of poison.” It’s not a mundane paper. So what’s it like psychologically to go through all this process to keep getting rejected, to get reviews from people that don’t get the paper or all that kind of stuff? Just from a question of a scientist, what is that like?
Lee Cronin
I mean this paper for me kind of, because this wasn’t the first time we tried to publish assembly theory at the highest level. The Nature communications paper on the mass spec, the idea went to Nature and got rejected, went through six rounds of review and got rejected. And I just was so confused when the chemist said, this can’t be possible. I do not believe you can measure complexity using mass spec. And also by the way, complex molecules can randomly form. And we’re like, “But look at the data. The data says…” And they said, “No, no. We don’t believe you.” And we went and I just wouldn’t give up. And the editor in the end was just like… Different editors actually. Right?
I mean this paper for me kind of, because this wasn’t the first time we tried to publish assembly theory at the highest level. The Nature communications paper on the mass spec, the idea went to Nature and got rejected, went through six rounds of review and got rejected. And I just was so confused when the chemist said, this can’t be possible. I do not believe you can measure complexity using mass spec. And also by the way, complex molecules can randomly form. And we’re like, “But look at the data. The data says…” And they said, “No, no. We don’t believe you.” And we went and I just wouldn’t give up. And the editor in the end was just like… Different editors actually. Right?
Lex Fridman
What’s behind that never giving up? When you’re sitting there 10 o’clock in the evening, there’s a melancholy feeling that comes over you and you’re like, “Okay, this is rejection number five.” Or it’s not rejection, but maybe it feels like a rejection because the comments are that you totally don’t get it. What gives you strength to keep going there?
What’s behind that never giving up? When you’re sitting there 10 o’clock in the evening, there’s a melancholy feeling that comes over you and you’re like, “Okay, this is rejection number five.” Or it’s not rejection, but maybe it feels like a rejection because the comments are that you totally don’t get it. What gives you strength to keep going there?
Lee Cronin
I don’t know. I don’t normally get emotional about papers, but it is not about giving up because we want to get it published because we want the glory or anything. It’s just like, why don’t you understand? And so what I would just… Is try to be as rational as possible and say, yeah, you didn’t like it. Tell me why. And then…
I don’t know. I don’t normally get emotional about papers, but it is not about giving up because we want to get it published because we want the glory or anything. It’s just like, why don’t you understand? And so what I would just… Is try to be as rational as possible and say, yeah, you didn’t like it. Tell me why. And then…
Sorry, give me a second. Silly, never get emotional about papers normally, but I think what we do, you just compressed five years of angst from this.
Lex Fridman
So it’s been rough?
So it’s been rough?
Lee Cronin
It’s not just rough. It’s like, it happened… I came up with the assembly equation remote from Sarah in Arizona and the people at SFI. I felt like I was a mad person. The guy depicted in A Beautiful Mind who was just like… Not the actual genius part, but just the gibberish, gibberish, gibberish.
It’s not just rough. It’s like, it happened… I came up with the assembly equation remote from Sarah in Arizona and the people at SFI. I felt like I was a mad person. The guy depicted in A Beautiful Mind who was just like… Not the actual genius part, but just the gibberish, gibberish, gibberish.
Lex Fridman
Just the crazy part.
Just the crazy part.
Lee Cronin
Because I kept writing expanded and I have no mathematical ability at all. And I was making these mathematical expansions where I kept seeing the same motif again. I was like, I think this is a copy number. The same string is coming again and again and again, I couldn’t do the math. And then I realized the copy number fell out of the equation and everything collapsed down. I was like, oh, that works kind of.
Because I kept writing expanded and I have no mathematical ability at all. And I was making these mathematical expansions where I kept seeing the same motif again. I was like, I think this is a copy number. The same string is coming again and again and again, I couldn’t do the math. And then I realized the copy number fell out of the equation and everything collapsed down. I was like, oh, that works kind of.
So we submitted the paper and then when it was almost accepted, the mass spec one and it was astrobiologists said, great, a mass spectroscopist said great. And the chemist went nonsense, biggest pile of nonsense ever. Fraud. And I was like, “But why fraud?” And they just said, “Just because.” I was like well… I could not convince the editor in this case. The editor was just so pissed off. They see it as a, you’re wasting my time. And I would not give up. I wrote, I went and dissected all the parts. And I think, although, I mean I got upset about, it was kind of embarrassing actually, but I guess…
Lex Fridman
I bet it was beautiful.
I bet it was beautiful.
Lee Cronin
But it was just trying to understand why they didn’t like it. So part of me was really devastated and a part of me was super excited because I’m like, “Huh, they can’t tell me why I’m wrong.” And this kind of goes back to when I was at school, I was in a kind of learning difficulties class, and I kept going to the teacher and saying, “What do I do today to prove I’m smart?” And they were like, “Nothing, you can’t.” I was like, “Give me a job, give me something to do, give me a job to do. Something to do.” And I kind of felt like that a bit when I was arguing with the, and not arguing. There was no ad hominem. I wasn’t telling the editor they were idiots or anything like this or the reviewers. I kept it strictly factual.
But it was just trying to understand why they didn’t like it. So part of me was really devastated and a part of me was super excited because I’m like, “Huh, they can’t tell me why I’m wrong.” And this kind of goes back to when I was at school, I was in a kind of learning difficulties class, and I kept going to the teacher and saying, “What do I do today to prove I’m smart?” And they were like, “Nothing, you can’t.” I was like, “Give me a job, give me something to do, give me a job to do. Something to do.” And I kind of felt like that a bit when I was arguing with the, and not arguing. There was no ad hominem. I wasn’t telling the editor they were idiots or anything like this or the reviewers. I kept it strictly factual.
And all I did is I just kept knocking it down bit by bit, by bit, by bit by bit. It was ultimately rejected and it got published elsewhere. And then the actual experimental data, so in this paper, the experimental justification was already published. So when we did this one and we went through the versions and then we sent it in and in the end it just got accepted. We were like, well, that’s kind of cool, right? This is kind of like some days…
Sorry, the first author was like, “I can’t believe it got accepted.” I was like, “Nor am I, but it’s great. It’s good.” And then when the paper was published, I was not expecting the backlash. I was expecting computational. Well, no, actually I was just expecting one person who’d been trolling me for a while about it just to carry on trolling, but I didn’t expect the backlash. And then I wrote to the editor and apologized and the editor was like, “What are you apologizing for? It was a great paper. Of course it’s going to get backlash. You said some controversial stuff, but it’s awesome.”
Lex Fridman
Well, I think it’s a beautiful story of perseverance and the backlash is just a negative word for discourse, which I think is beautiful. That’s the science.
Well, I think it’s a beautiful story of perseverance and the backlash is just a negative word for discourse, which I think is beautiful. That’s the science.
Lee Cronin
I think, as I said when it got accepted and people were saying, we’re kind of hacking on it. And I was like, papers are not gold medals. The reason I wanted to publish that paper in Nature is because it says, “Hey, there’s something before biological evolution.” You have to have that, if you’re not a creationist, by the way, this is an approach. First time someone has put a concrete mechanism, or sorry, a concrete quantification and what comes next you are pushing on is a mechanism. And that’s what we need to get to is an auto catalytic sets, self-replicating molecules, some other features that come in.
I think, as I said when it got accepted and people were saying, we’re kind of hacking on it. And I was like, papers are not gold medals. The reason I wanted to publish that paper in Nature is because it says, “Hey, there’s something before biological evolution.” You have to have that, if you’re not a creationist, by the way, this is an approach. First time someone has put a concrete mechanism, or sorry, a concrete quantification and what comes next you are pushing on is a mechanism. And that’s what we need to get to is an auto catalytic sets, self-replicating molecules, some other features that come in.
And the fact that this paper has been so discussed, for me is a dream come true, it doesn’t get better than that. If you can’t accept a few people hating it… And the nice thing is, the thing that really makes me happy is that no one has attacked the actual physical content.
You can measure the assembly index, you can measure selection now. So either that’s right or it’s… Well, either that’s helpful or unhelpful. If it’s unhelpful, this paper will sink down and no one will use it again. If it’s helpful, it’ll help people scaffold on it and we’ll start to converge for a new paradigm. So I think that that’s the thing that I wanted to see my colleagues, authors, collaborators and people were like, you’ve just published this paper. You’re a chemist. Why have you done this? Who are you to be doing evolutionary theory? Well, I don’t know. I mean, sorry, did I need to…
Lex Fridman
Who is anyone to do anything? Well, I’m glad you did. Let me just before coming back to Origin of Life and these kinds of questions, you mentioned learning difficulties. I didn’t know about this. So what was it like?
Who is anyone to do anything? Well, I’m glad you did. Let me just before coming back to Origin of Life and these kinds of questions, you mentioned learning difficulties. I didn’t know about this. So what was it like?
Lee Cronin
I wasn’t very good at school, right.
I wasn’t very good at school, right.
Lee Cronin
I wasn’t very good at school, right?
I wasn’t very good at school, right?
Lex Fridman
This is when you were very young?
This is when you were very young?
Lee Cronin
Yeah. But in primary school, my handwriting was really poor and apparently I couldn’t read and my mathematics was very poor. So they just said, “This is a problem.” They identified it. My parents at the time, were confused because I was busy taking things apart, buying electronic junk from the shop, trying to build computers and things. And then once I got out of… when I think, about the major transition in my stupidity, everyone thought I wasn’t that stupid when I was… Basically, everyone thought I was faking. I liked stuff and I was faking wanting to be it. So I always want to be a scientist. So five, six, seven years old, I’d be a scientist, take things apart, and everyone’s like, “Yeah, this guy wants to be a scientist, but he’s an idiot.” So everyone was really confused, I think, at first, that I wasn’t smarter than I was claiming to be.
Yeah. But in primary school, my handwriting was really poor and apparently I couldn’t read and my mathematics was very poor. So they just said, “This is a problem.” They identified it. My parents at the time, were confused because I was busy taking things apart, buying electronic junk from the shop, trying to build computers and things. And then once I got out of… when I think, about the major transition in my stupidity, everyone thought I wasn’t that stupid when I was… Basically, everyone thought I was faking. I liked stuff and I was faking wanting to be it. So I always want to be a scientist. So five, six, seven years old, I’d be a scientist, take things apart, and everyone’s like, “Yeah, this guy wants to be a scientist, but he’s an idiot.” So everyone was really confused, I think, at first, that I wasn’t smarter than I was claiming to be.
And then I just basically didn’t do well in any of the tests, and I went down and down and down and down and then I was like, “Huh, this is really embarrassing. I really like maths and everyone says I can’t do it. I really like physics and chemistry and science and people say you can’t read and write.” And so I found myself in a learning difficulties class at the end of primary school and the beginning of secondary school. In the UK, secondary school is 11, 12 years old. And I remember being put in the remedial class. And the remedial class was basically full of three types of people. There were people quite violent and there were people who couldn’t speak English and there were people that really had learning difficulties. So the one thing I can objectively remember was… I could read. I liked reading. I read a lot. But something in me, I’m a bit of a rebel. I refused to read what I was told to read and I found it difficult to read individual words in the way they were told.
But anyway, I got caught one day teaching someone else to read and they said, “Okay, we don’t understand this.” I’d always known I wanted to be a scientist, but I didn’t really know what that meant and I realized you had to go to university and I thought, “I can just go to university. They take curious people.” “No, no, no need to have these. You have to be able to enter these exams to get this grade point average, and the fact is, the exams you’ve been entered into, you are just going to get C, D or E.” You can’t even get A, B or C. These are the UK GCSEs. I was like, ” Oh, shit,” and I said, “Can you just put me into the higher exams?” They said, “No, no, you’re going to fail. There’s no chance.” So my father intervened and said, “Just let him go in the exams,” and they said, “He’s definitely going to fail. It’s a waste of time, waste of money,” and he said, “What if we paid?” So they said, “Okay,” so you didn’t actually have to pay. You only had to pay if I failed.
So I took the exams and passed them, fortunately. I didn’t get the top grades, but I got into A Levels. But then that also limited what I could do at A Levels. I wasn’t allowed to do A Level maths.
Lex Fridman
What do you mean you weren’t allowed to?
What do you mean you weren’t allowed to?
Lee Cronin
Because I had such a bad math grade from my GCSE, I only had a C. But they wouldn’t let me go into the ABC for maths because of some coursework requirement back then so the top grade I could have got was a C. So C, D or E. So I got a C and they let me do AS Level maths, which is this half intermediate and get to go to university. But I liked chemistry. I had a good chemistry teacher so in the end I got to university to do chemistry.
Because I had such a bad math grade from my GCSE, I only had a C. But they wouldn’t let me go into the ABC for maths because of some coursework requirement back then so the top grade I could have got was a C. So C, D or E. So I got a C and they let me do AS Level maths, which is this half intermediate and get to go to university. But I liked chemistry. I had a good chemistry teacher so in the end I got to university to do chemistry.
Lex Fridman
So through that process, I think for kids in that situation, it’s easy to start believing that you’re not… How do I put it… That you’re stupid, and basically give up, that you’re just not good at math, you’re not good at school. So this is, by way of advice for people, for interesting people, for interesting young kids right now, experiencing the same thing. Where was the place? What was the source of you not giving up there?
So through that process, I think for kids in that situation, it’s easy to start believing that you’re not… How do I put it… That you’re stupid, and basically give up, that you’re just not good at math, you’re not good at school. So this is, by way of advice for people, for interesting people, for interesting young kids right now, experiencing the same thing. Where was the place? What was the source of you not giving up there?
Lee Cronin
I have no idea. Other than… I really liked not understanding stuff. For me, when I not understand something… I feel like I don’t understand anything. But now, but back then, I remember when I was like… I don’t know, I tried to build a laser when I was eight and I thought, “How hard could it be?” And basically, I was going to build a CO2 laser and I was like, “Right, I think I need some partially coated mirrors. I need some carbon dioxide and I need a high voltage.” And I was so stupid. I was so embarrassed. T make enough CO2, I actually set a fire and tried to filter the flame.
I have no idea. Other than… I really liked not understanding stuff. For me, when I not understand something… I feel like I don’t understand anything. But now, but back then, I remember when I was like… I don’t know, I tried to build a laser when I was eight and I thought, “How hard could it be?” And basically, I was going to build a CO2 laser and I was like, “Right, I think I need some partially coated mirrors. I need some carbon dioxide and I need a high voltage.” And I was so stupid. I was so embarrassed. T make enough CO2, I actually set a fire and tried to filter the flame.
Lex Fridman
Oh, nice. That’s an idea.
Oh, nice. That’s an idea.
Lee Cronin
Just to collect enough CO2 and it completely failed. And I burnt half the garage down. So my parents were not very happy about that. So that was one thing. I really liked first principle thinking. So I remember being super curious and being determined to find answers. And so when people do give advice about this, why ask for advice about this? I don’t really have that much advice other than don’t give up. And one of the things I try to do as a chemistry professor in my group is I hire people that I think, if they’re persistent enough, who am I to deny them the chance? Because people gave me a chance and I was able to do stuff.
Just to collect enough CO2 and it completely failed. And I burnt half the garage down. So my parents were not very happy about that. So that was one thing. I really liked first principle thinking. So I remember being super curious and being determined to find answers. And so when people do give advice about this, why ask for advice about this? I don’t really have that much advice other than don’t give up. And one of the things I try to do as a chemistry professor in my group is I hire people that I think, if they’re persistent enough, who am I to deny them the chance? Because people gave me a chance and I was able to do stuff.
Lex Fridman
Do you believe in yourself essentially?
Do you believe in yourself essentially?
Lee Cronin
So I love being around smart people and I love confusing smart people. And when I’m confusing smart people, not by stealing their wallets and hiding it somewhere, but if I can confuse smart people, that is the one piece of hope that I might be doing something interesting.
So I love being around smart people and I love confusing smart people. And when I’m confusing smart people, not by stealing their wallets and hiding it somewhere, but if I can confuse smart people, that is the one piece of hope that I might be doing something interesting.
Lex Fridman
Wow, that’s quite brilliant. As a gradient to optimize. Hang out with smart people and confuse them. And the more confusing it is, the more there’s something there.
Wow, that’s quite brilliant. As a gradient to optimize. Hang out with smart people and confuse them. And the more confusing it is, the more there’s something there.
Lee Cronin
And as long as they’re not telling you just a complete idiot and they give you different reasons. And everyone, because with assembly theory and people said, “Oh, it’s wrong.” And I was like, “Why?” And no one could give me a consistent reason. They said, “Oh, because it’s been done before or it’s just [inaudible 01:49:04] or it’s just there, that and the other. So I think the thing that I like to do is, and in academia it’s hard because people are critical. But the criticism, although I got upset about it earlier, which is silly, but not silly because obviously it’s hard work being on your own or with a team spatially separated during lockdown and try to keep everyone on board and have some faith. I always wanted to have a new idea. And so I like a new idea and I want to nurture it as long as possible. And if someone can give me actionable criticism, that’s why I think I was trying to say earlier when I was stuck for words, give me actionable criticism.
And as long as they’re not telling you just a complete idiot and they give you different reasons. And everyone, because with assembly theory and people said, “Oh, it’s wrong.” And I was like, “Why?” And no one could give me a consistent reason. They said, “Oh, because it’s been done before or it’s just [inaudible 01:49:04] or it’s just there, that and the other. So I think the thing that I like to do is, and in academia it’s hard because people are critical. But the criticism, although I got upset about it earlier, which is silly, but not silly because obviously it’s hard work being on your own or with a team spatially separated during lockdown and try to keep everyone on board and have some faith. I always wanted to have a new idea. And so I like a new idea and I want to nurture it as long as possible. And if someone can give me actionable criticism, that’s why I think I was trying to say earlier when I was stuck for words, give me actionable criticism.
“It’s wrong.” “Okay, why is it wrong?” Say, “Oh, your equation’s incorrect for this or your method is wrong.” So what I try and do is get enough criticism from people to then triangulate and go back. And I’ve been very fortunate in my life that I’ve got great colleagues, great collaborators, funders, mentors, and people that will take the time to say, “You are wrong because.” And then what I have to do is integrate the wrongness and go, “Oh, cool, maybe I can fix that.” And I think criticism is really good. People have a go at me because I’m really critical. But I’m not criticizing you as a person. I’m just criticizing the idea and trying to make it better and say, “What about this?”
And sometimes my filters are truncated in some ways. I’m just like, “That’s wrong, that’s wrong, that’s wrong. Why’d you do this?” And people are like, “Oh my God, you just told me, you destroyed my life’s work.” I’m like, “Relax. No.” I’m just like, “Let’s make it better.” And I think that we don’t do that enough because we are either personally critical, which isn’t helpful or we don’t give any criticism at all because we’re too scared.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I’ve seen you be pretty aggressively critical but every time I’ve seen, it’s the idea, not the person.
Yeah, I’ve seen you be pretty aggressively critical but every time I’ve seen, it’s the idea, not the person.
Time and free will
Lee Cronin
I’m sure I make mistakes on that.I argue lots with Sara and she’s shocked. I’ve argued with Joscha, Joscha Bach, in the past and he is like, “You’re just making that up.” And I’m like, “No, not quite. But kind of.” But I had a big argument with Sara about time and she’s like, “No, time doesn’t exist.” I’m like, “No, no, time does exist.” And as she realized that her conception of assembly theory and my conception of assembly theory was the same thing, necessitated us to abandon the fact that time is eternal, to actually really fundamentally question how the universe produces combinatorial novelty.
I’m sure I make mistakes on that.I argue lots with Sara and she’s shocked. I’ve argued with Joscha, Joscha Bach, in the past and he is like, “You’re just making that up.” And I’m like, “No, not quite. But kind of.” But I had a big argument with Sara about time and she’s like, “No, time doesn’t exist.” I’m like, “No, no, time does exist.” And as she realized that her conception of assembly theory and my conception of assembly theory was the same thing, necessitated us to abandon the fact that time is eternal, to actually really fundamentally question how the universe produces combinatorial novelty.
Lex Fridman
So time is fundamental for assembly theory? I’m just trying to figure out where you and Sara converged.
So time is fundamental for assembly theory? I’m just trying to figure out where you and Sara converged.
Lee Cronin
I think assembly theory is fine in this time right now but I think it helps us understand that something interesting is going on. I’ve been really inspired by a guy called Nick Gisin. I’m going to butcher his argument but I love his argument a lot. So I hope he forgives me if he hears about it. But basically if you want free will, time has to be fundamental. And if you want time to be fundamental, you have to give up on platonic mathematics and you have to use intuition. By the way, and again I’m going to butcher this, but basically Hilbert said that infinite numbers are allowed. And I think it was Brouwer who said, “No, you can’t. All numbers are finite.” So let’s go back a step because it was like people going to say, assembly theory seems to explain that large combinatorial space allows you to produce things like life and technology. And that large combinatorial space is so big it’s not even accessible to a Sean Carroll, David Deutsch multiverse that physicists saying that all of the universe already exists in time is probably, provably, that’s a strong word, not correct.
I think assembly theory is fine in this time right now but I think it helps us understand that something interesting is going on. I’ve been really inspired by a guy called Nick Gisin. I’m going to butcher his argument but I love his argument a lot. So I hope he forgives me if he hears about it. But basically if you want free will, time has to be fundamental. And if you want time to be fundamental, you have to give up on platonic mathematics and you have to use intuition. By the way, and again I’m going to butcher this, but basically Hilbert said that infinite numbers are allowed. And I think it was Brouwer who said, “No, you can’t. All numbers are finite.” So let’s go back a step because it was like people going to say, assembly theory seems to explain that large combinatorial space allows you to produce things like life and technology. And that large combinatorial space is so big it’s not even accessible to a Sean Carroll, David Deutsch multiverse that physicists saying that all of the universe already exists in time is probably, provably, that’s a strong word, not correct.
That we are going to know that the universe as it stands, the present, the way the present builds the future is so big, the universe can’t ever contain the future. And this is a really interesting thing. I think Max Tegmark has this mathematical universe. He says the universe is like a block universe, and I apologize to Max if I’m getting it wrong, but people think you can just move. You have the stat, you have the initial conditions, and you can run the universe right to the end and go backwards and forwards in that universe. That is not correct.
Lex Fridman
Let me load that in. The universe is not big enough to contain the future.
Let me load that in. The universe is not big enough to contain the future.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. That’s why. That’s it.
Yeah. That’s why. That’s it.
Lex Fridman
That’s a beautiful way of saying that time is fundamental.
That’s a beautiful way of saying that time is fundamental.
Lee Cronin
Yes. And this is why the law of the excluded middle, something is true or false, only works in the past. Is it going to snow in New York next week or in Austin? You might, in Austin, say probably not. In New York, you might say, yeah. If you go forward to next week and say, “Did it snow in New York last week? True or false?” You can answer that question. The fact that the law of the excluded middle cannot apply to the future explains why time is fundamental.
Yes. And this is why the law of the excluded middle, something is true or false, only works in the past. Is it going to snow in New York next week or in Austin? You might, in Austin, say probably not. In New York, you might say, yeah. If you go forward to next week and say, “Did it snow in New York last week? True or false?” You can answer that question. The fact that the law of the excluded middle cannot apply to the future explains why time is fundamental.
Lex Fridman
That’s a good example, intuitive example, but it’s possible that we might be able to predict whether it’s going to snow if we had the perfect information.
That’s a good example, intuitive example, but it’s possible that we might be able to predict whether it’s going to snow if we had the perfect information.
Lee Cronin
I think…
I think…
Lex Fridman
You’re saying it not.
You’re saying it not.
Lee Cronin
Impossible. Impossible. So here’s why. I’ll make a really quick argument and this argument isn’t mine. It’s Nick’s and a few other people.
Impossible. Impossible. So here’s why. I’ll make a really quick argument and this argument isn’t mine. It’s Nick’s and a few other people.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain his view on time being fundamental?
Can you explain his view on time being fundamental?
Lee Cronin
Yeah. So I’ll give my view, which resonates with his, but basically it’s very simple actually. It would say your ability to design and do an experiment is exercising free will. So he used that thought process. I never really thought about it that way, and that you actively make decisions. I used to think that free will was a consequence of just selection but I’m understanding that human free will is something really interesting. And he very much inspired me. But I think that what Sara Walker said that inspired me as well, these will converge, is that I think that the universe, and the universe is very big, huge, but actually the place that is largest in the universe right now, the largest place in the universe, is earth.
Yeah. So I’ll give my view, which resonates with his, but basically it’s very simple actually. It would say your ability to design and do an experiment is exercising free will. So he used that thought process. I never really thought about it that way, and that you actively make decisions. I used to think that free will was a consequence of just selection but I’m understanding that human free will is something really interesting. And he very much inspired me. But I think that what Sara Walker said that inspired me as well, these will converge, is that I think that the universe, and the universe is very big, huge, but actually the place that is largest in the universe right now, the largest place in the universe, is earth.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I’ve seen you say that. And boy, does that… That’s an interesting one to process. What do you mean by that earth is the biggest place in the universe?
Yeah, I’ve seen you say that. And boy, does that… That’s an interesting one to process. What do you mean by that earth is the biggest place in the universe?
Lee Cronin
Because we have this combinatorial scaffolding going all the way back from LUCA. So you’ve got cells that can self-replicate and then you go all the way to terraforming the earth. You’ve got all these architectures, the amount of selection that’s going on, biological selection, just to be clear, biological evolution, and then have multicellularity then animals and abstraction. And with abstraction, there was another kick because you can then build architectures and computers and cultures and language and these things are the biggest things that exist in the universe because we can just build architectures that could naturally arise anywhere and the further that distance goes in time, and it’s gigantic.
Because we have this combinatorial scaffolding going all the way back from LUCA. So you’ve got cells that can self-replicate and then you go all the way to terraforming the earth. You’ve got all these architectures, the amount of selection that’s going on, biological selection, just to be clear, biological evolution, and then have multicellularity then animals and abstraction. And with abstraction, there was another kick because you can then build architectures and computers and cultures and language and these things are the biggest things that exist in the universe because we can just build architectures that could naturally arise anywhere and the further that distance goes in time, and it’s gigantic.
Lex Fridman
From a complexity perspective.
From a complexity perspective.
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Okay, wait a minute. But I know you’re being poetic, but how do you know there’s not other earth-like… How do you know? You’re basically saying earth is really special. It’s awesome stuff as far as we look out, there’s nothing like it going on. But how do you know there’s not nearly infinite number of places where cool stuff like this is going on?
Okay, wait a minute. But I know you’re being poetic, but how do you know there’s not other earth-like… How do you know? You’re basically saying earth is really special. It’s awesome stuff as far as we look out, there’s nothing like it going on. But how do you know there’s not nearly infinite number of places where cool stuff like this is going on?
Lee Cronin
I agree and I would say, I’ll say again, that earth is the most gigantic thing we know in the universe combinatorially we know.
I agree and I would say, I’ll say again, that earth is the most gigantic thing we know in the universe combinatorially we know.
Lex Fridman
We know. Yeah.
We know. Yeah.
Communication with aliens
Lee Cronin
Now, I guess this is just purely a guess. I have no data other than hope. Maybe not hope, maybe… No, I have some data. That every star in the sky probably has planets and life is probably emerging on these planets. But the amount of contingency that is associated with life, is I think the combinatorial space associated with these planets is so different. Our causal cones are never going to overlap or not easily. And this is the thing that makes me sad about alien life. It’s why we have to create alien life in the lab as quickly as possible because I don’t know if we are going to be able to be able to build architectures that will intersect with alien intelligence architectures.
Now, I guess this is just purely a guess. I have no data other than hope. Maybe not hope, maybe… No, I have some data. That every star in the sky probably has planets and life is probably emerging on these planets. But the amount of contingency that is associated with life, is I think the combinatorial space associated with these planets is so different. Our causal cones are never going to overlap or not easily. And this is the thing that makes me sad about alien life. It’s why we have to create alien life in the lab as quickly as possible because I don’t know if we are going to be able to be able to build architectures that will intersect with alien intelligence architectures.
Lex Fridman
Intersect, you don’t mean in time or space?
Intersect, you don’t mean in time or space?
Lee Cronin
Time and the ability to communicate.
Time and the ability to communicate.
Lex Fridman
The ability to communicate.
The ability to communicate.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. My biggest fear in a way is that life is everywhere but we become infinitely more lonely because of our scaffolding in that combinatorial space. Because it’s so big.
Yeah. My biggest fear in a way is that life is everywhere but we become infinitely more lonely because of our scaffolding in that combinatorial space. Because it’s so big.
Lex Fridman
So you’re saying the constraints created by the environment that led to the factory of Darwinian evolution are just this little tiny cone in a nearly infinite combinatorial space.
So you’re saying the constraints created by the environment that led to the factory of Darwinian evolution are just this little tiny cone in a nearly infinite combinatorial space.
Lee Cronin
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
So there’s other cones like it. Why can’t we communicate with other… Just because we can’t create it doesn’t mean we can’t appreciate the creation, right? Sorry, detect the creation.
So there’s other cones like it. Why can’t we communicate with other… Just because we can’t create it doesn’t mean we can’t appreciate the creation, right? Sorry, detect the creation.
Lee Cronin
I truly don’t know but it’s an excuse for me to ask for people to give me money to make a planet simulator.
I truly don’t know but it’s an excuse for me to ask for people to give me money to make a planet simulator.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, right.
Yeah, right.
Lee Cronin
If I can make…
If I can make…
Lex Fridman
With a different [crosstalk 01:59:40]
With a different [crosstalk 01:59:40]
Lee Cronin
It’s like another shameless say, it’s like, “Give me money. I need money.”
It’s like another shameless say, it’s like, “Give me money. I need money.”
Lex Fridman
This was all long plug for a planet simulator. Hey, I won’t be the first in line to do that.
This was all long plug for a planet simulator. Hey, I won’t be the first in line to do that.
Lee Cronin
My rick garage has run out of room.
My rick garage has run out of room.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lee Cronin
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
And this planet simulator, you mean a different planet or different sets of environments and pressures?
And this planet simulator, you mean a different planet or different sets of environments and pressures?
Lee Cronin
Exactly. If we could basically recreate the selection before biology as we know it, that gives rise to a different biology, we should be able to put the constraints on where to look in the universe. So here’s the thing. Here’s my dream. My dream is that by creating life in the lab based upon constraints we understand, let’s go for Venus type life or earth type life or something again, do an Earth 2.0. Screw it, let’s do an Earth 2.0. An Earth 2.0 has a different genetic alphabet. Fine, that’s fine. Different protein alphabet, fine. Have cells and evolution, all that stuff. We will then be able to say, “Okay, life is a more general phenomena. Selection is more general than what we think is the chemical constraints on life.” And we can point at James Webb and other telescopes at other planets that we are in that zone we are most likely to combinatorially overlap with because, so there’s chemistry…
Exactly. If we could basically recreate the selection before biology as we know it, that gives rise to a different biology, we should be able to put the constraints on where to look in the universe. So here’s the thing. Here’s my dream. My dream is that by creating life in the lab based upon constraints we understand, let’s go for Venus type life or earth type life or something again, do an Earth 2.0. Screw it, let’s do an Earth 2.0. An Earth 2.0 has a different genetic alphabet. Fine, that’s fine. Different protein alphabet, fine. Have cells and evolution, all that stuff. We will then be able to say, “Okay, life is a more general phenomena. Selection is more general than what we think is the chemical constraints on life.” And we can point at James Webb and other telescopes at other planets that we are in that zone we are most likely to combinatorially overlap with because, so there’s chemistry…
Lex Fridman
You’re looking for some overlap.
You’re looking for some overlap.
Lee Cronin
And then we can then basically shine light on them literally and look at light coming back and apply advanced assembly theory to general theory of language that we’ll get and say, “Huh, in that signal, it looks random but there’s a copy number. Oh, this random set of things that shouldn’t be that looks like a true random number generator has structure as not [inaudible 02:01:32], an IT type structure, but evolutionary structure given by assembly theory,” and we start to… But I would say that because I’m a shameless assembly theorist.
And then we can then basically shine light on them literally and look at light coming back and apply advanced assembly theory to general theory of language that we’ll get and say, “Huh, in that signal, it looks random but there’s a copy number. Oh, this random set of things that shouldn’t be that looks like a true random number generator has structure as not [inaudible 02:01:32], an IT type structure, but evolutionary structure given by assembly theory,” and we start to… But I would say that because I’m a shameless assembly theorist.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it just feels like the cone, I might be misusing the word cone here but the width of the cone is growing faster, is growing really fast to where eventually all the cones overlap even in a very, very, very large combinatorial space. But then again, if you’re saying the universe is also growing very quickly in terms of possibilities…
Yeah, it just feels like the cone, I might be misusing the word cone here but the width of the cone is growing faster, is growing really fast to where eventually all the cones overlap even in a very, very, very large combinatorial space. But then again, if you’re saying the universe is also growing very quickly in terms of possibilities…
Lee Cronin
I hope that as we build abstractions, one idea is that as we go to intelligence, intelligence allows us to look at the regularities around us in the universe. And that gives us some common grounding to discuss with aliens. And you might be right that we will overlap there. Even though we have completely different chemistry, literally completely different chemistry, that we will be able to pass information from one another. But it’s not a given. And I have to try and divorce hope and emotion away from what I can logically justify.
I hope that as we build abstractions, one idea is that as we go to intelligence, intelligence allows us to look at the regularities around us in the universe. And that gives us some common grounding to discuss with aliens. And you might be right that we will overlap there. Even though we have completely different chemistry, literally completely different chemistry, that we will be able to pass information from one another. But it’s not a given. And I have to try and divorce hope and emotion away from what I can logically justify.
Lex Fridman
But it’s just hard to intuit a world, a universe where there’s nearly infinite complexity objects and they somehow can’t detect each other.
But it’s just hard to intuit a world, a universe where there’s nearly infinite complexity objects and they somehow can’t detect each other.
Lee Cronin
The universe is expanding. But the nice thing is I would say, I would look, you see, I think Carl Sagan did the wrong thing. Not the wrong thing. He flicked the Voyager program and the Pale Blue Dot and said, “Look how big the universe is.” I would’ve done it the other way around and said, “Look at the Voyager probe that came from the planet earth that came from LUCA. Look at how big earth is.”
The universe is expanding. But the nice thing is I would say, I would look, you see, I think Carl Sagan did the wrong thing. Not the wrong thing. He flicked the Voyager program and the Pale Blue Dot and said, “Look how big the universe is.” I would’ve done it the other way around and said, “Look at the Voyager probe that came from the planet earth that came from LUCA. Look at how big earth is.”
Lex Fridman
Then it produced that.
Then it produced that.
Lee Cronin
It produced that.
It produced that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lee Cronin
And that I think is completely amazing. And then that should allow people on earth to think about, “Probably we should try and get causal chains off Earth onto Mars, onto the moon, wherever. Whether it’s human life or martian life that we create, it doesn’t matter. But I think this combinatorial space tells us something very important about the universe and that I realized in assembly theory that the universe is too big to contain itself. Now coming back, I want to change your mind about time because I’m guessing that your time is just a coordinate. So I’m going to change…
And that I think is completely amazing. And then that should allow people on earth to think about, “Probably we should try and get causal chains off Earth onto Mars, onto the moon, wherever. Whether it’s human life or martian life that we create, it doesn’t matter. But I think this combinatorial space tells us something very important about the universe and that I realized in assembly theory that the universe is too big to contain itself. Now coming back, I want to change your mind about time because I’m guessing that your time is just a coordinate. So I’m going to change…
Lex Fridman
I’m guessing you’re one of those.
I’m guessing you’re one of those.
Lee Cronin
One of those. I’m change my mind in real time or at least attempt.
One of those. I’m change my mind in real time or at least attempt.
Lex Fridman
Oh, in real time. There you go. I already got the tattoo. So this is going to be embarrassing if you change my mind.
Oh, in real time. There you go. I already got the tattoo. So this is going to be embarrassing if you change my mind.
Lee Cronin
But you can just add an arrow of time onto it, right?
But you can just add an arrow of time onto it, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, true. Just modify it.
Yeah, true. Just modify it.
Lee Cronin
Or raise it a bit. And the argument that I think that is really most interesting is people say the initial conditions specify the future of the universe. Okay, fine. Let’s say that’s the case for a moment. Now let’s go back to Newtonian mechanics. Now, the uncertainty principle in Newtonian mechanics is this. If I give you the coordinates of an object moving in space and the coordinates of another object and they collide in space. And those initial conditions, you should know exactly what’s going to happen. However, you cannot specify these coordinates to infinite precision. Now everyone says, “Oh, this is like the chaos theory argument.” No, no, it’s deeper than that. Here’s a problem with numbers. This is where Hilbert and Brouwer fell out. To have the coordinates of this object, a given object that’s colliding, you have to have them to infinite precision. That’s what Hilbert says. There’s no problem. Infinite precision is fine. Let’s just take that for granted.
Or raise it a bit. And the argument that I think that is really most interesting is people say the initial conditions specify the future of the universe. Okay, fine. Let’s say that’s the case for a moment. Now let’s go back to Newtonian mechanics. Now, the uncertainty principle in Newtonian mechanics is this. If I give you the coordinates of an object moving in space and the coordinates of another object and they collide in space. And those initial conditions, you should know exactly what’s going to happen. However, you cannot specify these coordinates to infinite precision. Now everyone says, “Oh, this is like the chaos theory argument.” No, no, it’s deeper than that. Here’s a problem with numbers. This is where Hilbert and Brouwer fell out. To have the coordinates of this object, a given object that’s colliding, you have to have them to infinite precision. That’s what Hilbert says. There’s no problem. Infinite precision is fine. Let’s just take that for granted.
But when the object is finite and it can’t store its own coordinates, what do you do? So in principle, if a finite object cannot be specified to infinite precision, in principle, the initial conditions don’t apply.
Lex Fridman
How do you know it can’t store its…
How do you know it can’t store its…
Lee Cronin
How do you store an in long number in a finite size?
How do you store an in long number in a finite size?
Lex Fridman
We’re using infinity very loosely here.
We’re using infinity very loosely here.
Lee Cronin
No, no. We’re using…
No, no. We’re using…
Lex Fridman
Infinite precision. Not loosely, but…
Infinite precision. Not loosely, but…
Lee Cronin
Very precisely.
Very precisely.
Lex Fridman
So you think infinite precision is required?
So you think infinite precision is required?
Lee Cronin
Let’s take the object. Let’s say the object is a golf ball. A golf ball is a few centimeters in diameter. We can work out how many atoms are in the golf ball. And let’s say we can store numbers down to atomic dislocations. So we can work out how many atoms there are in the golf ball and we can store the coordinates in that golf ball down to that number. But beyond that, we can’t. Let’s make the golf ball smaller. And this is where I think that we think that we get randomness in quantum mechanics and some people say you can’t get randomness, quantum mechanic’s deterministic, but aha, this is where we realize that classical mechanics and quantum mechanics suffer from the same uncertainty principle. And that is the inability to specify the initial conditions to a precise enough degree to give you determinism.
Let’s take the object. Let’s say the object is a golf ball. A golf ball is a few centimeters in diameter. We can work out how many atoms are in the golf ball. And let’s say we can store numbers down to atomic dislocations. So we can work out how many atoms there are in the golf ball and we can store the coordinates in that golf ball down to that number. But beyond that, we can’t. Let’s make the golf ball smaller. And this is where I think that we think that we get randomness in quantum mechanics and some people say you can’t get randomness, quantum mechanic’s deterministic, but aha, this is where we realize that classical mechanics and quantum mechanics suffer from the same uncertainty principle. And that is the inability to specify the initial conditions to a precise enough degree to give you determinism.
The universe is intrinsically too big and that’s why time exists. It’s non-deterministic. Looking back into the past, you can use logical arguments because you can say, “Was it true or false?” You already know. But this is the fact we are unable to predict the future with the precision is not evidence of lack of knowledge. It’s evidence the universe is generating new things.
Lex Fridman
Okay, first of all, quantum mechanics, you could just say statistically what’s going to happen when two golf balls hit each other.
Okay, first of all, quantum mechanics, you could just say statistically what’s going to happen when two golf balls hit each other.
Lee Cronin
Statistically. But sure, I can say statistically what’s going to happen. But then when they do happen and then you keep nesting it together, it goes almost back to, look, let’s think about entropy in the universe. So how do we understand entropy change or process? We can use the ergodic hypothesis. We can also have have the counterfactuals where we have all the different states and we can even put that in the multiverse. But both those, they’re nonphysical. The multiverse collapses back to the same problem about the precision. So if you accept, you don’t have to have true and false going forward into the future. The real numbers are real. They’re observables.
Statistically. But sure, I can say statistically what’s going to happen. But then when they do happen and then you keep nesting it together, it goes almost back to, look, let’s think about entropy in the universe. So how do we understand entropy change or process? We can use the ergodic hypothesis. We can also have have the counterfactuals where we have all the different states and we can even put that in the multiverse. But both those, they’re nonphysical. The multiverse collapses back to the same problem about the precision. So if you accept, you don’t have to have true and false going forward into the future. The real numbers are real. They’re observables.
Lex Fridman
We’re trying to see exactly where time being fundamental sneaks in. And this difference between the golf ball can’t contain its own position perfectly precisely. How that leads to time needing to be fundamental.
We’re trying to see exactly where time being fundamental sneaks in. And this difference between the golf ball can’t contain its own position perfectly precisely. How that leads to time needing to be fundamental.
Lee Cronin
Do you believe or do you accept you have free will?
Do you believe or do you accept you have free will?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think at this moment in time, I believe that I have free will.
Yeah, I think at this moment in time, I believe that I have free will.
Lee Cronin
So then you have to believe that time is fundamental.
So then you have to believe that time is fundamental.
Lex Fridman
I understand that’s a statement you’ve made.
I understand that’s a statement you’ve made.
Lee Cronin
No, that we can logically follow because if you don’t have free will, so if you’re in a universe that has no time, universe is deterministic. If it’s deterministic, then you have no free will.
No, that we can logically follow because if you don’t have free will, so if you’re in a universe that has no time, universe is deterministic. If it’s deterministic, then you have no free will.
Lex Fridman
I think the space of how much we don’t know is so vast that saying the universe is deterministic and from that jumping into there’s no free will is just too difficult of a leap.
I think the space of how much we don’t know is so vast that saying the universe is deterministic and from that jumping into there’s no free will is just too difficult of a leap.
Lee Cronin
No, I logically follow. No, no, I don’t disagree. It’s deep and it’s important. All I’m saying, and it’s actually different to what I’ve said before, is that if you don’t require platonistic mathematics and accepts that non-determinism is how the universe looks and that gives us our creativity and the way the universe is getting novelty, it’s really deeply important in assembly theory because assembly theory starts to actually give you a mechanism where you go from boring time, which is basically initial conditions specify everything, to a mismatch in creative time. And I hope we’ll do experiments. I would love to do an experiment that prove that time is fundamental and the universe is generating novelty. I don’t know all the features of that experiment yet, but by having these conversations openly and getting people to think about the problems in a new way, better people, more intelligent people with good mathematical backgrounds can say, “Oh, hey, I’ve got an idea. I would love to do an experiment that shows that the universe is too big for itself going forward in time.”
No, I logically follow. No, no, I don’t disagree. It’s deep and it’s important. All I’m saying, and it’s actually different to what I’ve said before, is that if you don’t require platonistic mathematics and accepts that non-determinism is how the universe looks and that gives us our creativity and the way the universe is getting novelty, it’s really deeply important in assembly theory because assembly theory starts to actually give you a mechanism where you go from boring time, which is basically initial conditions specify everything, to a mismatch in creative time. And I hope we’ll do experiments. I would love to do an experiment that prove that time is fundamental and the universe is generating novelty. I don’t know all the features of that experiment yet, but by having these conversations openly and getting people to think about the problems in a new way, better people, more intelligent people with good mathematical backgrounds can say, “Oh, hey, I’ve got an idea. I would love to do an experiment that shows that the universe is too big for itself going forward in time.”
And this is why I really hate the idea of the Boltzmann brain. The Boltzmann brain makes me super, like everyone’s having a free lunch. It’s like saying, “Let’s break all the laws of physics.” So a Boltzmann brain is this idea that in a long enough universe, a brain will just emerge in the universe as conscious. And that neglects the causal chain of evolution that required to produce that brain. And this is where the computational argument really falls down because a computationalist could say,” I can calculate probability of a Boltzmann brain.” And they’ll give you a probability. But I can calculate probability of a Boltzmann brain. Zero.
Lex Fridman
Just because the space of possibilities is so large?
Just because the space of possibilities is so large?
Lee Cronin
Yeah. When we start falling ourselves with numbers that we can’t actually measure and we can’t ever conceive of, I think it doesn’t give us a good explanation. And I want to explain why life is in the universe. I think life is actually novelty minor. Life basically mines novelty almost from the future and actualizes in the present.
Yeah. When we start falling ourselves with numbers that we can’t actually measure and we can’t ever conceive of, I think it doesn’t give us a good explanation. And I want to explain why life is in the universe. I think life is actually novelty minor. Life basically mines novelty almost from the future and actualizes in the present.
Lex Fridman
Okay. Life is a novelty minor from the future that is actualized in the present.
Okay. Life is a novelty minor from the future that is actualized in the present.
Lee Cronin
Yep. I think so.
Yep. I think so.
Lex Fridman
Novelty minor. First of all, novelty. What’s the origin of novelty when you go from boring time to creative time? Where is that? Is it as simple as randomness like you’re referring to?
Novelty minor. First of all, novelty. What’s the origin of novelty when you go from boring time to creative time? Where is that? Is it as simple as randomness like you’re referring to?
Lee Cronin
I am really struggling with randomness because I had a really good argument with Joscha Bach about randomness, and he just said, “Randomness doesn’t give you free will. That’s insane because you’d just be random.” And I think he’s right at that level but I don’t think he is right on another level. And it’s not about randomness, it’s about constrained, I’m making this up as I go along, so making this up, constrained opportunity. So the novelty. What is novelty? This is what I think is a funny thing if you ever want to discuss AI. Why I think everyone’s gone AI mad is that they’re misunderstanding novelty. But let’s think about novelty. Yes. What is novelty? So I think novelty is a genuinely new configuration that is not predicted by the past and that you discover in the present. And that is truly different. Now, everyone says that. Some people say that novelty doesn’t exist. It’s always with precedent. I want to do experiments that show that that is not the case. And it goes back to a question you asked me a few moments ago, which is where is the factory?
I am really struggling with randomness because I had a really good argument with Joscha Bach about randomness, and he just said, “Randomness doesn’t give you free will. That’s insane because you’d just be random.” And I think he’s right at that level but I don’t think he is right on another level. And it’s not about randomness, it’s about constrained, I’m making this up as I go along, so making this up, constrained opportunity. So the novelty. What is novelty? This is what I think is a funny thing if you ever want to discuss AI. Why I think everyone’s gone AI mad is that they’re misunderstanding novelty. But let’s think about novelty. Yes. What is novelty? So I think novelty is a genuinely new configuration that is not predicted by the past and that you discover in the present. And that is truly different. Now, everyone says that. Some people say that novelty doesn’t exist. It’s always with precedent. I want to do experiments that show that that is not the case. And it goes back to a question you asked me a few moments ago, which is where is the factory?
Because I think the same mechanism that gives us a factory gives us novelty. And I think that is why I’m so deeply hung up on time. Of course I’m wrong, but how wrong? And I think that life opens up that combinatorial space in a way that our current laws of physics, although as contrived in a deterministic initial condition universe even with the get out of the multiverse, David Deutsch style, which I love by the way, but I don’t think is correct, but it’s really beautiful.
Lex Fridman
Multiverse.
Multiverse.
Lee Cronin
David Deutsche’s conception of the multiverse is given. But I think that the problem with wave particle duality in quantum mechanics is not about the multiverse. It’s about understanding how determined the past is. I don’t just think that actually, this is a discussion I was having with Sara about that, where she was like, “Oh, I think we’ve been debating this for a long time now, about how do we reconcile novelty determinism in determinism.”
David Deutsche’s conception of the multiverse is given. But I think that the problem with wave particle duality in quantum mechanics is not about the multiverse. It’s about understanding how determined the past is. I don’t just think that actually, this is a discussion I was having with Sara about that, where she was like, “Oh, I think we’ve been debating this for a long time now, about how do we reconcile novelty determinism in determinism.”
Lex Fridman
Okay. Just to clarify, both you and Sara think the universe is not deterministic?
Okay. Just to clarify, both you and Sara think the universe is not deterministic?
Lee Cronin
I won’t speak for Sara but roughly. I think the universe is deterministic looking back in the past but undetermined going forward in the future. So I’m having my cake and eating it here. This is because I fundamentally don’t understand randomness, as Joscha told me or other people told me. But if I adopt a new view now which the new view is the universe is just non-deterministic, but I’d like to refine that and say the universe appears deterministic going back in the past but it’s undetermined going forward in the future. So how can we have a universe that has deterministically looking rules that’s non-determined
I won’t speak for Sara but roughly. I think the universe is deterministic looking back in the past but undetermined going forward in the future. So I’m having my cake and eating it here. This is because I fundamentally don’t understand randomness, as Joscha told me or other people told me. But if I adopt a new view now which the new view is the universe is just non-deterministic, but I’d like to refine that and say the universe appears deterministic going back in the past but it’s undetermined going forward in the future. So how can we have a universe that has deterministically looking rules that’s non-determined
Lee Cronin
… universe that has deterministically-looking rules that is non-determined going into the future. It’s this breakdown in precision in the initial conditions, and we have to just stop using initial conditions and start looking at trajectories, and how the combinatorial space behaves in an expanding universe in time and space. And assembly theory helps us quantify the transition to biology, and biology appears to be novelty-mining, because it’s making crazy stuff that are unique to Earth. Right? There are objects on Earth that are unique to Earth that will not be found anywhere else, because you can do the combinatorial math.
… universe that has deterministically-looking rules that is non-determined going into the future. It’s this breakdown in precision in the initial conditions, and we have to just stop using initial conditions and start looking at trajectories, and how the combinatorial space behaves in an expanding universe in time and space. And assembly theory helps us quantify the transition to biology, and biology appears to be novelty-mining, because it’s making crazy stuff that are unique to Earth. Right? There are objects on Earth that are unique to Earth that will not be found anywhere else, because you can do the combinatorial math.
Lex Fridman
What was that statement you made about “life is novelty-mining from the future”? What’s the little element of time that you’re introducing there?
What was that statement you made about “life is novelty-mining from the future”? What’s the little element of time that you’re introducing there?
Lee Cronin
What I’m kind of meaning is because the future is bigger than the present, in a deterministic universe, how do the states go from one to another? There’s a mismatch, right?
What I’m kind of meaning is because the future is bigger than the present, in a deterministic universe, how do the states go from one to another? There’s a mismatch, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lee Cronin
So, that must mean that you have a little bit of indeterminism. Whether that’s randomness or something else, I don’t understand. I want to do experiments to formulate a theory to refine that as we go forward that might help us explain that. And I think that’s why I’m so determined to try and crack the “non-life to life” transition looking at networks and molecules, and that might help us think about the mechanism. But certainly the future is bigger than the past in my conception of the universe and some conception of the universe. And-
So, that must mean that you have a little bit of indeterminism. Whether that’s randomness or something else, I don’t understand. I want to do experiments to formulate a theory to refine that as we go forward that might help us explain that. And I think that’s why I’m so determined to try and crack the “non-life to life” transition looking at networks and molecules, and that might help us think about the mechanism. But certainly the future is bigger than the past in my conception of the universe and some conception of the universe. And-
Lex Fridman
By the way, that’s not obvious, right? The future being bigger than the past, well, that’s one statement, and the statement that the universe is not big enough to contain the future is another statement. That one is a big one. That one’s a really big one.
By the way, that’s not obvious, right? The future being bigger than the past, well, that’s one statement, and the statement that the universe is not big enough to contain the future is another statement. That one is a big one. That one’s a really big one.
Lee Cronin
I think so, but I think it’s entirely … Because look, we have the second law, and right now we don’t need the second law if the future’s bigger than the past. It follows naturally. So, why are we retrofitting all these sticking plasters onto our reality to hold onto a timeless universe?
I think so, but I think it’s entirely … Because look, we have the second law, and right now we don’t need the second law if the future’s bigger than the past. It follows naturally. So, why are we retrofitting all these sticking plasters onto our reality to hold onto a timeless universe?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but that’s because it’s kind of difficult to imagine the universe that can’t contain the future.
Yeah, but that’s because it’s kind of difficult to imagine the universe that can’t contain the future.
Lee Cronin
But isn’t that really exciting?
But isn’t that really exciting?
Lex Fridman
It’s very exciting, but it’s hard. We are humans on Earth, and we have a very kind of four-dimensional conception of the world, of 3D plus time. It’s just hard to intuit a world where, what does that even mean, a universe that can’t contain the future?
It’s very exciting, but it’s hard. We are humans on Earth, and we have a very kind of four-dimensional conception of the world, of 3D plus time. It’s just hard to intuit a world where, what does that even mean, a universe that can’t contain the future?
Lee Cronin
Yeah. It’s kind of crazy but obvious.
Yeah. It’s kind of crazy but obvious.
Lex Fridman
It’s weird, it’s weird. I suppose it sounds obvious, yeah, if it’s true.
It’s weird, it’s weird. I suppose it sounds obvious, yeah, if it’s true.
Lee Cronin
So, the reason why assembly theory turned me onto that was that, let’s just start in the present, and look at all the complex molecules, and go backwards in time, and understand how evolutionary processes gave rise to them. It’s not at all obvious that taxol, which is one of the most complex natural products produced by biology, was going to be invented by biology. It’s an accident.
So, the reason why assembly theory turned me onto that was that, let’s just start in the present, and look at all the complex molecules, and go backwards in time, and understand how evolutionary processes gave rise to them. It’s not at all obvious that taxol, which is one of the most complex natural products produced by biology, was going to be invented by biology. It’s an accident.
Taxol is unique to Earth. There’s no taxol elsewhere in the universe, and taxol was not decided by the initial conditions. It was decided by this interplay between the … So, the past simply is embedded in the present. It gives some features. But why the past doesn’t map to the future one-to-one is because the universe is too big to contain itself. That gives space for creativity, and novelty, and some things which are unpredictable.
Cellular automata
Lex Fridman
Well, okay. So, given that you’re disrespecting the power of the initial conditions, let me ask you about, how do you explain that cellular automata are able to produce such incredible complexity given just basic rules and basic initial conditions?
Well, okay. So, given that you’re disrespecting the power of the initial conditions, let me ask you about, how do you explain that cellular automata are able to produce such incredible complexity given just basic rules and basic initial conditions?
Lee Cronin
I think that this falls into the Brouwer-Hilbert trap. So, how do you get cellular automata to produce complexity? You have a computer, you generate a display, and you map the change of that in time. There are some CAs that repeat like functions.
I think that this falls into the Brouwer-Hilbert trap. So, how do you get cellular automata to produce complexity? You have a computer, you generate a display, and you map the change of that in time. There are some CAs that repeat like functions.
It’s fascinating to me that for pi, there is a formula where you can go to the millionth decimal place of pi and read out the number without having to go there. But there are some numbers where you can’t do that, and you have to just crank through. Whether it’s Wolframian computational irreducibility or some other thing, well, it doesn’t matter. But these CAs, that complexity, is that just complexity, or a number that is basically you’re mining that number in time? Is that just a display screen for that number, that function?
Lex Fridman
Well, can’t you say the same thing about the complexity on Earth then?
Well, can’t you say the same thing about the complexity on Earth then?
Lee Cronin
No. Because the complexity on Earth has a copy number and an assembly index associated with it. That CA is just a number running.
No. Because the complexity on Earth has a copy number and an assembly index associated with it. That CA is just a number running.
Lex Fridman
You don’t think it has a copy number? Wait a minute …
You don’t think it has a copy number? Wait a minute …
Lee Cronin
Well, it does where we’re looking at humans producing different rules, but then it’s nested on selection. So, those CAs are produced by selection. The CA is such a fascinating pseudo-complexity generator. What I would love to do is understand, quantify the degree of surprise in a CA and run it long enough. But what I guess that means is we have to instantiate, we have to have a number of experiments where we’re generating different rules and running them time steps, but … Oh, I got it.
Well, it does where we’re looking at humans producing different rules, but then it’s nested on selection. So, those CAs are produced by selection. The CA is such a fascinating pseudo-complexity generator. What I would love to do is understand, quantify the degree of surprise in a CA and run it long enough. But what I guess that means is we have to instantiate, we have to have a number of experiments where we’re generating different rules and running them time steps, but … Oh, I got it.
CAs are mining novelty in the future by iteration, right? And you’re like, ” Oh, that’s great. That’s great.” You didn’t predict it. Some rules you can predict what’s going to happen, and other rules you can’t. So for me, if anything, CAs are evidence that the universe is too big to contain itself, because otherwise you’d know what the rules are going to do forevermore.
Lex Fridman
Right. I guess you were saying that the physicist saying that all you need is the initial conditions and the rules of physics is somehow missing the bigger picture.
Right. I guess you were saying that the physicist saying that all you need is the initial conditions and the rules of physics is somehow missing the bigger picture.
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And if you look at CAs, all you need is the initial condition and the rules, and then run the thing.
And if you look at CAs, all you need is the initial condition and the rules, and then run the thing.
Lee Cronin
You need three things; You need the initial conditions, you need the rules, and you need time iteration to mine it out. Without the coordinate, you can’t get it out.
You need three things; You need the initial conditions, you need the rules, and you need time iteration to mine it out. Without the coordinate, you can’t get it out.
Lex Fridman
Sure, and that to you is fundamental?
Sure, and that to you is fundamental?
Lee Cronin
And you can’t predict it from the initial conditions. If you could, then it could be fine.
And you can’t predict it from the initial conditions. If you could, then it could be fine.
Lex Fridman
And that time is-
And that time is-
Lee Cronin
A resource.
A resource.
Lex Fridman
… like the foundation of the history, the memory of each of the things it created. It has to have that memory of all the things that led up to it.
… like the foundation of the history, the memory of each of the things it created. It has to have that memory of all the things that led up to it.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, you have to have the resource. Because time is a fundamental resource. Yeah, I think I had a major epiphany about randomness, but I keep doing that every two days and then it goes away again. It’s random.
Yeah, you have to have the resource. Because time is a fundamental resource. Yeah, I think I had a major epiphany about randomness, but I keep doing that every two days and then it goes away again. It’s random.
Lex Fridman
You’re a time fundamentalist.
You’re a time fundamentalist.
Lee Cronin
And you should be as well. If you believe in free will, then the only conclusion is that time is fundamental. Otherwise you cannot have free will. It logically follows.
And you should be as well. If you believe in free will, then the only conclusion is that time is fundamental. Otherwise you cannot have free will. It logically follows.
Lex Fridman
Well, the foundation of my belief in free will is observation-driven.
Well, the foundation of my belief in free will is observation-driven.
Lee Cronin
But that’s-
But that’s-
Lex Fridman
I think if you use logic, logically it seems like the universe is deterministic.
I think if you use logic, logically it seems like the universe is deterministic.
Lee Cronin
Looking backwards in time then that’s correct, the universe is.
Looking backwards in time then that’s correct, the universe is.
Lex Fridman
And then everything else is a kind of leap. It requires a leap.
And then everything else is a kind of leap. It requires a leap.
Lee Cronin
This is why I think machine learning is going to provide a chunk of that, right? To help us explain this. So, the way I’d say it, if you take …
This is why I think machine learning is going to provide a chunk of that, right? To help us explain this. So, the way I’d say it, if you take …
Lex Fridman
That’s interesting. Why?
That’s interesting. Why?
AGI
Lee Cronin
Well, my favorite one is … Because AI doomers are driving me mad, and in fact we don’t have any intelligence yet. I call AI “autonomous informatics” just to make people grumpy.
Well, my favorite one is … Because AI doomers are driving me mad, and in fact we don’t have any intelligence yet. I call AI “autonomous informatics” just to make people grumpy.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You’re saying we’re quite far away from AGI.
Yeah. You’re saying we’re quite far away from AGI.
Lee Cronin
I think that we have no conception of intelligence, and I think that we don’t understand how the human brain does what it does. I think that neuroscience is making great advances, but I think that we have no idea about AGI. So, I am a technological, I guess optimist. I believe we should do everything. The whole regulation of AI is nonsensical. Why would you regulate Excel, other than the fact that Clippy should come back and I love Excel ’97 because we can do the flight simulator.
I think that we have no conception of intelligence, and I think that we don’t understand how the human brain does what it does. I think that neuroscience is making great advances, but I think that we have no idea about AGI. So, I am a technological, I guess optimist. I believe we should do everything. The whole regulation of AI is nonsensical. Why would you regulate Excel, other than the fact that Clippy should come back and I love Excel ’97 because we can do the flight simulator.
Lex Fridman
Sorry, in Excel?
Sorry, in Excel?
Lee Cronin
Yeah, have you not played the flight simulator in-
Yeah, have you not played the flight simulator in-
Lex Fridman
In Excel ’97?
In Excel ’97?
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
What does that look like?
What does that look like?
Lee Cronin
It’s like wireframe, very basic. But basically I think it’s X zero, Y zero, shift, and it opens up and you can play the flight simulator.
It’s like wireframe, very basic. But basically I think it’s X zero, Y zero, shift, and it opens up and you can play the flight simulator.
Lex Fridman
Oh, wow. Wait, wait, is it using Excel?
Oh, wow. Wait, wait, is it using Excel?
Lee Cronin
Excel ’97.
Excel ’97.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Lee Cronin
I resurrected it the other day and saw Clippy again for the first time in a long time.
I resurrected it the other day and saw Clippy again for the first time in a long time.
Lex Fridman
Well, Clippy is definitely coming back. But you’re saying we don’t have a great understanding of what is intelligence, what is the intelligence underpinning the human mind.
Well, Clippy is definitely coming back. But you’re saying we don’t have a great understanding of what is intelligence, what is the intelligence underpinning the human mind.
Lee Cronin
I’m very frustrated by the way that we’re AI dooming right now, and people are bestowing some kind of magic. Now, let’s go back a bit. So, you said about AGI, are we far away from AGI? Yes. I do not think we’re going to get to AGI anytime soon. I’ve seen no evidence of it, and the AI doom scenario is nonsensical in the extreme.
I’m very frustrated by the way that we’re AI dooming right now, and people are bestowing some kind of magic. Now, let’s go back a bit. So, you said about AGI, are we far away from AGI? Yes. I do not think we’re going to get to AGI anytime soon. I’ve seen no evidence of it, and the AI doom scenario is nonsensical in the extreme.
The reason why I think it’s nonsensical … And I don’t think there isn’t things we should do and be very worried about. There are things we need to worry about right now, what AI are doing. Whether it’s fake data, fake users. I want authentic people, authentic data. I don’t want everything to be faked, and I think it’s a really big problem, and I absolutely want to go on the record to say I really worry about that. What I’m not worried about is that some fictitious entity is going to turn us all to paperclips or detonate nuclear bombs, or maybe, I don’t know, anything you can think of.
Why is this? I’ll take a very simple series of logical arguments, and the AI doomers do not have the correct epistemology. They do not understand what knowledge is. And until we understand what knowledge is, they’re not going to get anywhere because they’re applying things falsely. So, let me give you a very simple argument.
People talk about the probability, “P(doom)”, of AI. We can work out the probability of an asteroid hitting the planet. Why? Because it’s happened before. We know the mechanism. We know that there’s a gravity well, or that spacetime is bent and stuff falls in. We don’t know the probability of AGI because we have no mechanism. So, let me give you another one, which is like, “I’m really worried about AG.” What’s AG? AG is anti-gravity. “One day we could wake up and anti-gravity is discovered, we’re all going to die, the atmosphere is going to float away, we’re going to float away, we’re all doomed.”
What is the probability of AG? We don’t know because there’s no mechanism for AG. Do we worry about it? No, and I don’t understand the current reason for certain people in certain areas to be generating this nonsense. I think they’re not doing it maliciously. I think we’re observing the emergence of new religions, how religions come, because religions are about some controls.
You’ve got the optimist saying, “AI is going to cure us all,” and, “AI is going to kill us all.” What’s the reality? Well, we don’t have AI. We have really powerful machine learning tools and they will allow us to do interesting things, and we need to be careful about how we use those tools in terms of manipulating human beings and faking stuff. Right?
Lex Fridman
Right. Well, let me try to steel man the AI doomers’ argument. And actually, I don’t know, are AI doomers in the Yudkowsky camp saying it’s definitely going to kill us? Because there’s a spectrum.
Right. Well, let me try to steel man the AI doomers’ argument. And actually, I don’t know, are AI doomers in the Yudkowsky camp saying it’s definitely going to kill us? Because there’s a spectrum.
Lee Cronin
95% I think is the limit.
95% I think is the limit.
Lex Fridman
Plus? 95%-plus, that’s the-
Plus? 95%-plus, that’s the-
Lee Cronin
No, not plus. I don’t know. I was seeing on Twitter today various things. But I think Yudkowsky is at 95%.
No, not plus. I don’t know. I was seeing on Twitter today various things. But I think Yudkowsky is at 95%.
Lex Fridman
But to belong to the AI doomer club, is there a threshold? I don’t know what the membership …
But to belong to the AI doomer club, is there a threshold? I don’t know what the membership …
Lee Cronin
Maybe.
Maybe.
Lex Fridman
And what are the fees?
And what are the fees?
Lee Cronin
Well, I think Scott Aronson, I was quite surprised, had put two … I saw this online, so I could be wrong. So, sorry if it’s wrong. He says 2%. But the thing is, if someone said there’s a 2% chance that you’re going to die going into the lift, would you go into the lift?
Well, I think Scott Aronson, I was quite surprised, had put two … I saw this online, so I could be wrong. So, sorry if it’s wrong. He says 2%. But the thing is, if someone said there’s a 2% chance that you’re going to die going into the lift, would you go into the lift?
Lex Fridman
In the elevator, for the American English-speaking audience. Well, no, not for the elevator.
In the elevator, for the American English-speaking audience. Well, no, not for the elevator.
Lee Cronin
So, I would say anyone higher than 2% … I think there’s a 0% chance of AGI doom. Zero.
So, I would say anyone higher than 2% … I think there’s a 0% chance of AGI doom. Zero.
Lex Fridman
Just to push back on the argument where N of zero on the AGI … We could see on Earth that there’s increasing levels of intelligence of organisms. We can see what humans with extra intelligence were able to do to the other species. So, that is a lot of samples of data, what a delta in intelligence gives you. When you have an increase in intelligence, how you’re able to dominate a species on Earth.
Just to push back on the argument where N of zero on the AGI … We could see on Earth that there’s increasing levels of intelligence of organisms. We can see what humans with extra intelligence were able to do to the other species. So, that is a lot of samples of data, what a delta in intelligence gives you. When you have an increase in intelligence, how you’re able to dominate a species on Earth.
So, the idea there is that if you have a being that’s 10x smarter than humans, we’re not going to be able to predict what that being is going to be able to do, especially if it has the power to hurt humans. Which, you can imagine a lot of trajectories in which the more benefit AI systems give, the more control we give to those AI systems over our power grid, over our nuclear weapons, or weapons of any sort. And then it’s hard to know what an ultra-intelligence system would be able to do in that case. You don’t find that convincing?
Lee Cronin
I think I would fail that argument 100%. Here’s a number of reasons to fail it on. First of all, we don’t know where the intention comes from. The problem is that people keep … I’ve been watching all the hucksters online with the prompt engineering and all this stuff. When I talk to a typical AI computer scientist, they keep talking about the AIs having some kind of decision-making ability. That is a category error.
I think I would fail that argument 100%. Here’s a number of reasons to fail it on. First of all, we don’t know where the intention comes from. The problem is that people keep … I’ve been watching all the hucksters online with the prompt engineering and all this stuff. When I talk to a typical AI computer scientist, they keep talking about the AIs having some kind of decision-making ability. That is a category error.
The decision-making ability comes from human beings. We have no understanding of how humans make decisions. We’ve just been discussing free will for the last half an hour, right? We don’t even know what that is. So, the intention, I totally agree with you, people who intend to do bad things can do bad things and we should not let that risk go. That’s totally here and now. I do not want that to happen, and I’m happy to be regulated to make sure that systems I generate, whether they’re computer systems, or … I’m working on a new project called “Chem Machina”.
Lex Fridman
Nice. Well done.
Nice. Well done.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, yeah. Which is basically a …
Yeah, yeah. Which is basically a …
Lex Fridman
For people who don’t understand the pun, the Ex Machina is a great film about I guess AGI embodied, and “chem” is the chemistry version of that.
For people who don’t understand the pun, the Ex Machina is a great film about I guess AGI embodied, and “chem” is the chemistry version of that.
Lee Cronin
And I only know one way to embody intelligence, and that’s in chemistry and human brains. So, category error number one is that they have agency. Category error number two is assuming that anything we make is going to be more intelligent. Now, you didn’t say super-intelligent. I’ll put the words into our mouths here, super-intelligent. I think that there is no reason to expect that we are going to make systems that are more intelligent. More capable …
And I only know one way to embody intelligence, and that’s in chemistry and human brains. So, category error number one is that they have agency. Category error number two is assuming that anything we make is going to be more intelligent. Now, you didn’t say super-intelligent. I’ll put the words into our mouths here, super-intelligent. I think that there is no reason to expect that we are going to make systems that are more intelligent. More capable …
When people play chess computers, they don’t expect to win now, right? The chess computer is very good at chess. That doesn’t mean it’s super-intelligent. So, I think that super-intelligence, and I think even Nick Bostrom is pulling back on this now, because he invented this … So, I see this a lot. When did I see it first happen? Eric Drexler, nanotechnology. Atomically precise machines. He came up with a world where we had these atom cogs everywhere and we were going to make self-replicating nanobots.
Not possible. Why? Because there’s no resources to build these self-replicating nanobots. You can’t get the precision. It doesn’t work. It was a major category error in taking engineering principles down to the molecular level. The only functioning nanomolecular technology we know is produced by evolution. There.
So, now let’s go forward to AGI. What is AGI? We don’t know. It’s super, it can do this, or humans can’t think. I would argue the only AGIs that exist in the universe are produced by evolution. And sure, we may be able to make our working memory better. We might be able to do more things. The human brain is the most compact computing unit in the universe. It uses 20 watts, uses a really limited volume. It’s not like a ChatGPT cluster which has to have thousands of watts, and a model that’s generated, and it has to be corrected by human beings. You are autonomous and embodied intelligence.
So, I think that there are so many levels that we’re missing out, we’ve just kind of went, “Oh, we’ve discovered fire. Oh gosh, the planet’s just going to burn one day randomly.” I just don’t understand that leap. There are bigger problems we need to worry about. So, what is the motivation? Why are these people, and let’s assume they’re earnest, have this conviction? Well, I think they’re making leaps and they’re trapped in a virtual reality that isn’t reality.
Lex Fridman
Well, I can continue a set of arguments here, but also it is true that ideologies that fearmonger are dangerous. Because you can then use it to control, to regulate in a way that halts progress, to control people, and to cancel people, all that kind of stuff. So, you have to be careful, because reason ultimately wins. Right?
Well, I can continue a set of arguments here, but also it is true that ideologies that fearmonger are dangerous. Because you can then use it to control, to regulate in a way that halts progress, to control people, and to cancel people, all that kind of stuff. So, you have to be careful, because reason ultimately wins. Right?
But there is a lot of concerns with super-intelligent systems, very capable systems. I think when you hear the word “super-intelligent”, you’re hearing, “It’s smarter than humans in every way that humans are smart.” But the paperclip manufacturing system doesn’t need to be smart in every way. It just needs to be smart in a set of specific ways. And the more capable the AI systems become, the more you could see us giving them control over, like I said, our power grid, a lot of aspects of human life. And then that means they’ll be able to do more and more damage when there’s unintended consequences that come to life.
Lee Cronin
I think that that’s right. The unintended consequences we have to think about, and that I fully agree with. But let’s go back a bit. Sentience … Again, I’m far away from my comfort zone and all this stuff, but hey, let’s talk about it. Because I give myself a qualification.
I think that that’s right. The unintended consequences we have to think about, and that I fully agree with. But let’s go back a bit. Sentience … Again, I’m far away from my comfort zone and all this stuff, but hey, let’s talk about it. Because I give myself a qualification.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, we’re both qualified in sentience, I think, as much as anyone else.
Yeah, we’re both qualified in sentience, I think, as much as anyone else.
Lee Cronin
I think the paperclip scenario is just such a poor one, because let’s think about how that would happen. And also, let’s think about, we are being so unrealistic about how much of the Earth’s surface we have commandeered. For paperclip manufacturing to really happen, do the math. It’s not going to happen. There’s not enough energy, there’s not enough resource. Where is it all going to come from?
I think the paperclip scenario is just such a poor one, because let’s think about how that would happen. And also, let’s think about, we are being so unrealistic about how much of the Earth’s surface we have commandeered. For paperclip manufacturing to really happen, do the math. It’s not going to happen. There’s not enough energy, there’s not enough resource. Where is it all going to come from?
I think that what happens in evolution, it’s really: Why has a killer virus not killed all life on Earth? Well, what happens is, sure, superkiller viruses that kill the ribosome have emerged. But you know what happens? They nuke a small space because they can’t propagate. They all die. So, there’s this interplay between evolution and propagation, right? And death. So …
Lex Fridman
In evolution. You don’t think it’s possible to engineer, for example, and sorry to interrupt, but a perfect virus?
In evolution. You don’t think it’s possible to engineer, for example, and sorry to interrupt, but a perfect virus?
Lee Cronin
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
That’s deadly enough?
That’s deadly enough?
Lee Cronin
No. Nonsensical. I think again, it wouldn’t work. Because if it was too deadly, it would just kill the radius and not replicate.
No. Nonsensical. I think again, it wouldn’t work. Because if it was too deadly, it would just kill the radius and not replicate.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But you don’t think it’s possible to get a …
Yeah. But you don’t think it’s possible to get a …
Lee Cronin
If you were …
If you were …
Lex Fridman
Not kill all of life on Earth, but kill all humans. There’s not many of us. There’s only like 8 billion. There’s so much more ants. So many more ants, and they’re pretty smart.
Not kill all of life on Earth, but kill all humans. There’s not many of us. There’s only like 8 billion. There’s so much more ants. So many more ants, and they’re pretty smart.
Lee Cronin
I think the nice thing about where we are, I would love for the AI crowd to take a leaf out of the book of the bio-warfare, chemical warfare crowd. I mean, not love, because actually people have been killed with chemical weapons in the first and second World War, and bio-weapons have been made, and we can argue about COVID-19 and all this stuff. Let’s not go there just now. But I think there is a consensus that some certain things are bad and we shouldn’t do them, right? And sure, it would be possible for a bad actor to engineer something bad, but we would see it coming and we would be able to do something about it.
I think the nice thing about where we are, I would love for the AI crowd to take a leaf out of the book of the bio-warfare, chemical warfare crowd. I mean, not love, because actually people have been killed with chemical weapons in the first and second World War, and bio-weapons have been made, and we can argue about COVID-19 and all this stuff. Let’s not go there just now. But I think there is a consensus that some certain things are bad and we shouldn’t do them, right? And sure, it would be possible for a bad actor to engineer something bad, but we would see it coming and we would be able to do something about it.
Now, I guess what I’m trying to say is when people talk about doom, and when you ask them for the mechanism, they just make something up. In this case, I’m with Yann LeCun. I think you put out a very good point about trying to regulate jet engines before we’ve even invented them. And I think that’s what I’m saying.
I’m not saying we should … I just don’t understand why these guys are going around literally making stuff up about us all dying, when basically we need to actually really focus on … Now, let’s say there’s some actors that are earnest. Let’s say Yudkowsky is being earnest and he really cares. But he loves it. He goes, “Da, da, da, and then you’re all going to die.” It’s like, why don’t we try and do the same thing and say, “You could do this, and then you’re all going to be happy forever after”?
Lex Fridman
Well, I think there’s several things to say there. One, I think there is a role in society for people that say we’re all going to die. Because I think it filters through as a message, as a viral message that gives us the proper amount of concern. Meaning it’s not 95%, but when you say 95% and it filters through society, it’ll give an average of like a 0.03%. An average. So, it’s nice to have people that are like, “We’re all going to die,” and then we’ll have a proper concern.
Well, I think there’s several things to say there. One, I think there is a role in society for people that say we’re all going to die. Because I think it filters through as a message, as a viral message that gives us the proper amount of concern. Meaning it’s not 95%, but when you say 95% and it filters through society, it’ll give an average of like a 0.03%. An average. So, it’s nice to have people that are like, “We’re all going to die,” and then we’ll have a proper concern.
For example, I do believe we’re not properly concerned about the threat of nuclear weapons currently. It just seems like people have forgotten that that’s a thing, and there’s a war in Ukraine with a nuclear power involved. There’s nuclear powers throughout the world, and it just feels like war in the brink of a potential world war to a percentage that I don’t think people are properly calibrating in their head. We’re all thinking it’s a Twitter battle as opposed to actual threat.
So, it’s nice to have that kind of level of concern. But to me, when I hear AI doomers, what I’m imagining is with unintended consequences a potential situation where let’s say 5% of the world suffers deeply because of a mistake made, of unintended consequences. I don’t want to imagine the entirety of human civilization dying, but there could be a lot of suffering if this is done poorly.
Lee Cronin
I understand that, and I guess I’m involved in the whole hype cycle. So, let’s say having some people saying AI doom is a worry, fine. Let’s give them that. But what seems to be happening is there seems to be people who don’t think AI is doing that, and they’re trying to use that to control regulation and to push people to regulate, which stops humans generating knowledge. And I am an advocate for generating as much knowledge as possible.
I understand that, and I guess I’m involved in the whole hype cycle. So, let’s say having some people saying AI doom is a worry, fine. Let’s give them that. But what seems to be happening is there seems to be people who don’t think AI is doing that, and they’re trying to use that to control regulation and to push people to regulate, which stops humans generating knowledge. And I am an advocate for generating as much knowledge as possible.
Nuclear weapons
When it comes to nuclear weapons, I grew up in the ’70s and ’80s where there was nuclear doom and a lot of adults really had existential threat, almost as bad as now with AI doom. They were really worried. There were some great … Well, not great. There were some horrific documentaries. I think there was one called Threads that was generated in the UK, which, it was terrible. It was so scary.
And I think that the correct thing to do is obviously get rid of nuclear weapons, but let’s think about unintended consequences. We’ve got rid of … This is going to be such a non sequitur. We got rid of all the sulfur particles in the atmosphere, right? All the soot. And what’s happened in the last couple of years is global warming has accelerated because we’ve cleaned up the atmosphere too much. So …
Lex Fridman
Sure. The same thing if you get rid of nuclear weapons. You’ll get [inaudible 02:42:05]-
Sure. The same thing if you get rid of nuclear weapons. You’ll get [inaudible 02:42:05]-
Lee Cronin
Exactly, that’s my point. So, what we could do is if we actually started to put the AI in charge … Which I’d really like an AI to be in charge of all world politics, and this will sound ridiculous for a second. Hang on. But if we could all agree on the-
Exactly, that’s my point. So, what we could do is if we actually started to put the AI in charge … Which I’d really like an AI to be in charge of all world politics, and this will sound ridiculous for a second. Hang on. But if we could all agree on the-
Lex Fridman
The AI doomers just woke up on that statement.
The AI doomers just woke up on that statement.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I really don’t like politicians who are basically just looking at local sampling. But if you could say globally, “Look, here’s some game theory here. What is the minimum number of nuclear weapons we need to distribute around the world to everybody to basically reduce war to zero?”
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I really don’t like politicians who are basically just looking at local sampling. But if you could say globally, “Look, here’s some game theory here. What is the minimum number of nuclear weapons we need to distribute around the world to everybody to basically reduce war to zero?”
Lex Fridman
Just the thought experiment of, the United States and China and Russia and major nuclear powers get together and say, “All right, we’re going to distribute nuclear weapons to every single nation on Earth.” Oh, boy. That has a probably greater than 50% chance of eliminating major military conflict, but it’s not a hundred percent.
Just the thought experiment of, the United States and China and Russia and major nuclear powers get together and say, “All right, we’re going to distribute nuclear weapons to every single nation on Earth.” Oh, boy. That has a probably greater than 50% chance of eliminating major military conflict, but it’s not a hundred percent.
Lee Cronin
But I don’t think anyone will use them, because … And look, what you’ve got to try and do is to qualify for these nuclear weapons … This is a great idea. The game theorists could do this, right?
But I don’t think anyone will use them, because … And look, what you’ve got to try and do is to qualify for these nuclear weapons … This is a great idea. The game theorists could do this, right?
Lex Fridman
Uh-huh.
Uh-huh.
Lee Cronin
I think the question is this … I really buy your question. We have too many nukes. Just from a feeling point of view, that we’ve got too many of them. So, let’s reduce the number, but not get rid of them because we’ll have too much conventional warfare. So then, what is the minimum number of nuclear weapons we can distribute around to remove … Humans hurting each other is something we should stop doing. It’s not out with our conceptual capability …
I think the question is this … I really buy your question. We have too many nukes. Just from a feeling point of view, that we’ve got too many of them. So, let’s reduce the number, but not get rid of them because we’ll have too much conventional warfare. So then, what is the minimum number of nuclear weapons we can distribute around to remove … Humans hurting each other is something we should stop doing. It’s not out with our conceptual capability …
But right now, what about certain nations that are being exploited for their natural resources in the future for a short-term gain because we don’t want to generate knowledge? So, if everybody had an equal doomsday switch, I predict the quality of life of the average human will go up faster. I am an optimist, and I believe that humanity is going to get better and better and better, that we’re going to eliminate more problems. But I think, yeah, let’s-
Lex Fridman
But the probability of a bad actor, of one of the nations setting off a nuclear weapon, you have to integrate that into the calculus here.
But the probability of a bad actor, of one of the nations setting off a nuclear weapon, you have to integrate that into the calculus here.
Lee Cronin
But we just give you [inaudible 02:44:28] nukes population. Right? What we do is we … I can’t believe this. But anyway, let’s just go there. So, if a small nation with a couple of nukes uses one because they’re a bit bored or annoyed, the likelihood that they are going to be pummeled out of existence immediately is 100%. And yet they’ve only nuked one other city. I know this is crazy, and I apologize for …
But we just give you [inaudible 02:44:28] nukes population. Right? What we do is we … I can’t believe this. But anyway, let’s just go there. So, if a small nation with a couple of nukes uses one because they’re a bit bored or annoyed, the likelihood that they are going to be pummeled out of existence immediately is 100%. And yet they’ve only nuked one other city. I know this is crazy, and I apologize for …
Lex Fridman
Well, no, no. Just to be clear, we’re just having a thought experiment that’s interesting. But there’s terrorist organizations that would take that trade. We have to ask ourselves a question of: Which percentage of humans would be suicide bombers, essentially? Where they would sacrifice their own life because they hate another group of people. I believe it’s a very small fraction, but is it large enough to, if you give out nuclear weapons …
Well, no, no. Just to be clear, we’re just having a thought experiment that’s interesting. But there’s terrorist organizations that would take that trade. We have to ask ourselves a question of: Which percentage of humans would be suicide bombers, essentially? Where they would sacrifice their own life because they hate another group of people. I believe it’s a very small fraction, but is it large enough to, if you give out nuclear weapons …
Lee Cronin
I can predict a future where we take all nuclear material and we burn it for energy, right? Because we’re getting there. And the other thing you could do is say, “Look, there’s a gap.” So, if we get all the countries to sign up to the virtual agreement where we have a simulation where we can nuke each other in the simulation and the economic consequences are catastrophic …
I can predict a future where we take all nuclear material and we burn it for energy, right? Because we’re getting there. And the other thing you could do is say, “Look, there’s a gap.” So, if we get all the countries to sign up to the virtual agreement where we have a simulation where we can nuke each other in the simulation and the economic consequences are catastrophic …
Lex Fridman
Sure. In the simulation, I love it. It’s not going to kill all humans, it’s just going to have economic consequences.
Sure. In the simulation, I love it. It’s not going to kill all humans, it’s just going to have economic consequences.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, yeah. I don’t know, I just made it up. It seems like a cool idea.
Yeah, yeah. I don’t know, I just made it up. It seems like a cool idea.
Lex Fridman
No, it’s interesting. But it’s interesting whether that would have as much power on human psychology as actual physical nuclear explosion.
No, it’s interesting. But it’s interesting whether that would have as much power on human psychology as actual physical nuclear explosion.
Lee Cronin
I think so.
I think so.
Lex Fridman
It’s possible, but people don’t take economic consequences as seriously I think as actual nuclear weapons exploding.
It’s possible, but people don’t take economic consequences as seriously I think as actual nuclear weapons exploding.
Lee Cronin
I think they do in Argentina, and they do in Somalia. And they do in a lot of these places where … No, I think this is a great idea. I’m a strong advocate now for … So, what have we come up with? Burning all the nuclear material to have energy. And before we do that, because MAD is good, mutually assured destruction is very powerful, let’s take it into the metaverse and then get people to kind of subscribe to that. And if they actually nuke each other even for fun in the metaverse, there are dire consequences.
I think they do in Argentina, and they do in Somalia. And they do in a lot of these places where … No, I think this is a great idea. I’m a strong advocate now for … So, what have we come up with? Burning all the nuclear material to have energy. And before we do that, because MAD is good, mutually assured destruction is very powerful, let’s take it into the metaverse and then get people to kind of subscribe to that. And if they actually nuke each other even for fun in the metaverse, there are dire consequences.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah. So, it’s like a video game. We all have to join this metaverse video game …
Yeah, yeah. So, it’s like a video game. We all have to join this metaverse video game …
Lee Cronin
Yeah. I can’t believe we just …
Yeah. I can’t believe we just …
Lex Fridman
And then there’s dire economic consequences. And it’s all run by AI, as you mentioned, so the AI doomers are really terrified at this point.
And then there’s dire economic consequences. And it’s all run by AI, as you mentioned, so the AI doomers are really terrified at this point.
Lee Cronin
No, they’re happy. They have a job for another 20 years, right?
No, they’re happy. They have a job for another 20 years, right?
Lex Fridman
Oh, fear-mongering.
Oh, fear-mongering.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I’m a believer in equal employment.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I’m a believer in equal employment.
Chem Machina
Lex Fridman
You’ve mentioned that, what’d you call it … Chem Machina?
You’ve mentioned that, what’d you call it … Chem Machina?
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. So, you’ve mentioned that a chemical brain is something you’re interested in creating, and that’s the way to get conscious AI soon. Can you explain what a chemical brain is?
Yeah. So, you’ve mentioned that a chemical brain is something you’re interested in creating, and that’s the way to get conscious AI soon. Can you explain what a chemical brain is?
Lee Cronin
I want to understand the mechanism of intelligence that’s gone through evolution, right? Because the way that intelligence was produced by evolution appears to be the following: origin of life, multi-cellularity, locomotion, senses. Once you can start to see things coming towards you, and you can remember the past and interrogate the present and imagine the future, you can do something amazing, right? And I think only in recent years did humans become Turing-complete, right?
I want to understand the mechanism of intelligence that’s gone through evolution, right? Because the way that intelligence was produced by evolution appears to be the following: origin of life, multi-cellularity, locomotion, senses. Once you can start to see things coming towards you, and you can remember the past and interrogate the present and imagine the future, you can do something amazing, right? And I think only in recent years did humans become Turing-complete, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lee Cronin
Right? So, that Turing completeness kind of gave us another kick up. But our ability to process that information was produced in a wet brain. And I think that we do not have the correct hardware architectures to have the domain flexibility and the ability to integrate information, and I think intelligence also comes at a massive compromise of data. Right now we’re obsessing about getting more and more data, more and more processing, more and more tricks to get dopamine hits. So, when we look back on this going, “Oh yeah, that was really cool, because when I asked ChatGPT, it made me feel really happy and I got a hit from it.” But actually it just exposed how little intelligence I use in every moment, because I’m easily fooled.
Right? So, that Turing completeness kind of gave us another kick up. But our ability to process that information was produced in a wet brain. And I think that we do not have the correct hardware architectures to have the domain flexibility and the ability to integrate information, and I think intelligence also comes at a massive compromise of data. Right now we’re obsessing about getting more and more data, more and more processing, more and more tricks to get dopamine hits. So, when we look back on this going, “Oh yeah, that was really cool, because when I asked ChatGPT, it made me feel really happy and I got a hit from it.” But actually it just exposed how little intelligence I use in every moment, because I’m easily fooled.
So, what I would like to do is to say, “Well, hey, hang on. What is it about the brain?” So, the brain has this incredible connectivity, and it has the ability to … As I said earlier about my nephew, I went from “Bill” to “Billy” and he went, “All right, Leroy.” How did he make that leap? That he was able to basically without any training … I extended his name in a way that he doesn’t like. He wants to be called Bill. He went back and said, “You like to be called Lee? I’m going to call you Leroy.”
So, human beings have a brilliant ability, or intelligent beings appear to have a brilliant ability to integrate across all domains all at once, and to synthesize something which allows us to generate knowledge. And becoming Turing-complete on our own, although AIs are built and Turing-complete things, their thinking is not Turing-complete in that they are not able to build universal explanations. And that lack of universal explanation means that they’re just-
Lee Cronin
Lack of universal explanation means that they’re just inductivists. Inductivism doesn’t get you anywhere. It’s just basically a party trick. I think it’s in The Fabric Of Reality from David Deutsch where basically the farmer is feeding the chicken every day and the chicken’s getting fat and happy. And the chicken’s like, “I’m really happy every time the farmer comes in and feeds me.” And then one day the farmer comes in and instead of feeding the chicken, just rings its neck. And had the chicken had an alternative understanding of why the farmer was feeding it.
Lack of universal explanation means that they’re just inductivists. Inductivism doesn’t get you anywhere. It’s just basically a party trick. I think it’s in The Fabric Of Reality from David Deutsch where basically the farmer is feeding the chicken every day and the chicken’s getting fat and happy. And the chicken’s like, “I’m really happy every time the farmer comes in and feeds me.” And then one day the farmer comes in and instead of feeding the chicken, just rings its neck. And had the chicken had an alternative understanding of why the farmer was feeding it.
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting though, because we don’t know what’s special about the human mind that’s able to come up with these kind of generalities. This universal theories of things. And we’ll come up with novelty. I can imagine… Because you gave an example about William and Leroy. I feel like an example like that we’ll be able to see in future versions of large language models. We’ll be really, really, really impressed by the humor, the insights, all of it. Because it’s fundamentally trained on all the incredible humor and insights that’s available out there on the internet. So we’ll be impressed. I think we’ll be impressed.
It’s interesting though, because we don’t know what’s special about the human mind that’s able to come up with these kind of generalities. This universal theories of things. And we’ll come up with novelty. I can imagine… Because you gave an example about William and Leroy. I feel like an example like that we’ll be able to see in future versions of large language models. We’ll be really, really, really impressed by the humor, the insights, all of it. Because it’s fundamentally trained on all the incredible humor and insights that’s available out there on the internet. So we’ll be impressed. I think we’ll be impressed.
Lee Cronin
Oh, I’m impressed. I’m impressed.
Oh, I’m impressed. I’m impressed.
Lex Fridman
Increasingly so.
Increasingly so.
Lee Cronin
But we are mining the past.
But we are mining the past.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Lee Cronin
And what the human brain appears to be able to do is mine the future.
And what the human brain appears to be able to do is mine the future.
Lex Fridman
Yes. So novelty, it is interesting whether these large language models will ever be able to come up with something truly novel.
Yes. So novelty, it is interesting whether these large language models will ever be able to come up with something truly novel.
Lee Cronin
I can show on the back of a piece of paper why that’s impossible. And it’s like the problem is that… And again these are domain experts kind of bullshitting each other. The term generative, right. Average person say, oh, it’s no, no, no. Look, if I take the numbers between zero and 1000 and I train a model to pick out the prime numbers by giving all the prime numbers between zero and a thousand, it doesn’t know what prime number is. Occasionally if I can cheat a bit, it will start to guess.
I can show on the back of a piece of paper why that’s impossible. And it’s like the problem is that… And again these are domain experts kind of bullshitting each other. The term generative, right. Average person say, oh, it’s no, no, no. Look, if I take the numbers between zero and 1000 and I train a model to pick out the prime numbers by giving all the prime numbers between zero and a thousand, it doesn’t know what prime number is. Occasionally if I can cheat a bit, it will start to guess.
It never will produce anything out with the dataset because you mine the past. The thing that I’m getting to is I think that actually current machine learning technologies might actually help reveal why time is fundamental. It’s like kind of insane. Because they tell you about what’s happened in the past, but they can never help you understand what’s happening in the future without training examples. Sure, if that thing happens again. So let’s think about what large language models are doing. We have all the internet as we know it, language, but also they’re doing something else. We having human beings correcting it all the time. Those models are being corrected,
Lex Fridman
Steered.
Steered.
Lee Cronin
Corrected, modified, tweaked.
Corrected, modified, tweaked.
Lex Fridman
Well, yeah, but-
Well, yeah, but-
Lee Cronin
Cheating.
Cheating.
Lex Fridman
Well you could say the training on human data in the first place is cheating.
Well you could say the training on human data in the first place is cheating.
Lee Cronin
Well, human is in the loop. Sorry to interrupt.
Well, human is in the loop. Sorry to interrupt.
Lex Fridman
Yes. So human is definitely in the loop, but it’s not just human is in the loop. A very large collection of humans is in the loop.
Yes. So human is definitely in the loop, but it’s not just human is in the loop. A very large collection of humans is in the loop.
Lee Cronin
Look I totally-
Look I totally-
Lex Fridman
And that could be… I mean to me it’s not intuitive that you said prime numbers, that the system can’t generate an algorithm. That the algorithm that can generate prime numbers or the algorithm that can tell you if a number is prime and so on. And generate algorithms that generate algorithms, that generate algorithms that start to look a lot like human reasoning.
And that could be… I mean to me it’s not intuitive that you said prime numbers, that the system can’t generate an algorithm. That the algorithm that can generate prime numbers or the algorithm that can tell you if a number is prime and so on. And generate algorithms that generate algorithms, that generate algorithms that start to look a lot like human reasoning.
Lee Cronin
I think again, we can show that on a piece of paper, that sure. I think you have to have… So this is the failure in epidemiology. I’m glad I even can say that word, let know what it means.
I think again, we can show that on a piece of paper, that sure. I think you have to have… So this is the failure in epidemiology. I’m glad I even can say that word, let know what it means.
Lex Fridman
You said it multiple times.
You said it multiple times.
Lee Cronin
I know. It’s like three times now.
I know. It’s like three times now.
Lex Fridman
Without failure. Quit while you’re ahead. Just don’t say it again because you did really well.
Without failure. Quit while you’re ahead. Just don’t say it again because you did really well.
Lee Cronin
Thanks. But I think, so what is reasoning? So coming back to the chemical brain. If I could show the inner… Because I mean I’m never going to make an intelligence in ca machina. Because if you don’t have brain cells, they don’t have glial cells, they don’t have neurons. But if I can take a gel and engineer the gel to have it be a hybrid hardware for reprogramming, which I think I know how to do, I will able to process a lot more information and train models billions of times cheaper and use cross domain knowledge. And there’s certain techniques I think we can do. But there’s still missing, though the abilities that human beings have had to become true and complete. And so I guess the question to give back at you is like how do you tell the difference between trial and error and the generation of new knowledge?
Thanks. But I think, so what is reasoning? So coming back to the chemical brain. If I could show the inner… Because I mean I’m never going to make an intelligence in ca machina. Because if you don’t have brain cells, they don’t have glial cells, they don’t have neurons. But if I can take a gel and engineer the gel to have it be a hybrid hardware for reprogramming, which I think I know how to do, I will able to process a lot more information and train models billions of times cheaper and use cross domain knowledge. And there’s certain techniques I think we can do. But there’s still missing, though the abilities that human beings have had to become true and complete. And so I guess the question to give back at you is like how do you tell the difference between trial and error and the generation of new knowledge?
I think the way you can do it is this, is that you come up with a theory, an explanation, inspiration comes from out, and then you then test that, and then you see that’s going towards the truth. And human beings are very good at doing that. And the transition between philosophy, mathematics, physics and natural sciences. And I think that we can see that. Where I get confused is why people misappropriate the term artificial intelligence to say, “Hey, there’s something else going on here.” Because I think you and I both agree, machine learning’s really good, it’s only going to get better. We’re going to get happier with the outcome. But why would you ever think the model is thinking or reasoning? Reasoning requires intention. And the intention, if the model isn’t reasoning, the intentions come from the prompter. And the intention has come from the person who programmed it to do it.
Lex Fridman
But don’t you think you can prompt it to have intention?Basically start with the initial conditions and get it going? Where currently large language models, ChatGPT only talks to you when you talk to it. There’s no reason why you can’t just start it talking.
But don’t you think you can prompt it to have intention?Basically start with the initial conditions and get it going? Where currently large language models, ChatGPT only talks to you when you talk to it. There’s no reason why you can’t just start it talking.
Lee Cronin
But those initial conditions came from someone starting it.
But those initial conditions came from someone starting it.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Lee Cronin
And that causal chain in there. So that intention comes from the outside. I think that there is something in that causal chain of intention that’s super important. I don’t disagree, we’re going to get to AGI. It’s a matter of when and what hardware. I think we’re not going to do it in this hardware and I think we’re unnecessarily fetishizing really cool outputs and dopamine hits. Because obviously that’s what people want to sell us.
And that causal chain in there. So that intention comes from the outside. I think that there is something in that causal chain of intention that’s super important. I don’t disagree, we’re going to get to AGI. It’s a matter of when and what hardware. I think we’re not going to do it in this hardware and I think we’re unnecessarily fetishizing really cool outputs and dopamine hits. Because obviously that’s what people want to sell us.
Lex Fridman
Well, but there could be AGI is a loaded term. But there could be incredibly super impressive intelligence systems on the way to AGI. So these large language models, I mean if it appears conscious, if it appears super intelligent, who are we to say it’s not.
Well, but there could be AGI is a loaded term. But there could be incredibly super impressive intelligence systems on the way to AGI. So these large language models, I mean if it appears conscious, if it appears super intelligent, who are we to say it’s not.
Lee Cronin
I agree, but the super intelligence I want, I want to be able to have a discussion with it about coming up with fundamental new ideas that generate knowledge. And if the superintelligent we generate can mine novel even from the future that I didn’t see in its training set in the past, I would agree that something really interesting is coming on. I’ll say that again. If the intelligence system, be it a human being, a Chatbot, something else, is able to produce something truly novel that I could not predict ,even having full audit trail from the past, then I’ll be sold.
I agree, but the super intelligence I want, I want to be able to have a discussion with it about coming up with fundamental new ideas that generate knowledge. And if the superintelligent we generate can mine novel even from the future that I didn’t see in its training set in the past, I would agree that something really interesting is coming on. I’ll say that again. If the intelligence system, be it a human being, a Chatbot, something else, is able to produce something truly novel that I could not predict ,even having full audit trail from the past, then I’ll be sold.
Lex Fridman
Well, so we should be clear that it can currently produce things that are in a shallow sense novel. That are not in the training set. But you’re saying truly novel.
Well, so we should be clear that it can currently produce things that are in a shallow sense novel. That are not in the training set. But you’re saying truly novel.
Lee Cronin
I think they are in the training set. I think everything it produces comes from a training set. There’s a difference between novelty and interpolation. We do not understand where these leaps come from yet. That is what intelligence is I would argue. Those leaps and some people say no, it’s actually just what will happen if you just do cross domain training and all that stuff. And that may be true. And I may be completely wrong. But right now the human mind is able to mine novelty in a way that artificial intelligence systems cannot. And this is why we still all have a job. And we’re still doing staff. And I used ChatGPT for a few weeks. Oh this is cool. And then what happened is it took me too much time to correct it. Then it got really good. And now they’ve done something to it. It’s not actually that good.
I think they are in the training set. I think everything it produces comes from a training set. There’s a difference between novelty and interpolation. We do not understand where these leaps come from yet. That is what intelligence is I would argue. Those leaps and some people say no, it’s actually just what will happen if you just do cross domain training and all that stuff. And that may be true. And I may be completely wrong. But right now the human mind is able to mine novelty in a way that artificial intelligence systems cannot. And this is why we still all have a job. And we’re still doing staff. And I used ChatGPT for a few weeks. Oh this is cool. And then what happened is it took me too much time to correct it. Then it got really good. And now they’ve done something to it. It’s not actually that good.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, right.
Yeah, right.
Lee Cronin
I don’t know what’s going on.
I don’t know what’s going on.
Lex Fridman
Censorship. Yeah, I mean that’s interesting. But it will push us humans to characterize novelty better. Characterize the novel, what is novel, what is truly novel, what’s the difference between novelty and interpolation.
Censorship. Yeah, I mean that’s interesting. But it will push us humans to characterize novelty better. Characterize the novel, what is novel, what is truly novel, what’s the difference between novelty and interpolation.
Lee Cronin
I think that this is the thing that makes me most excited about these technologies, is they’re going to help me demonstrate to you that time is fundamental. And the unit future is bigger than the present. Which is why human beings are quite good at generating novelty because we have to expand our dataset. And to cope with unexpected things in our environment. Our environment throws them all at us. Again, we have to survive in that environment. And I mean, I never say never. I would be very interested in how we can get cross domain training cheaply in chemical systems. Because I’m a chemist and bray, the only sim thing I know of is a human brain. But maybe that’s just me being boring and predictable and not novel.
I think that this is the thing that makes me most excited about these technologies, is they’re going to help me demonstrate to you that time is fundamental. And the unit future is bigger than the present. Which is why human beings are quite good at generating novelty because we have to expand our dataset. And to cope with unexpected things in our environment. Our environment throws them all at us. Again, we have to survive in that environment. And I mean, I never say never. I would be very interested in how we can get cross domain training cheaply in chemical systems. Because I’m a chemist and bray, the only sim thing I know of is a human brain. But maybe that’s just me being boring and predictable and not novel.
GPT for electron density
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You mentioned GPT for electron density. So a GPT like system for generating molecules that can bind to host automatically. I mean that’s interesting. I’s really interesting. Applying this same kind of transform mechanism.
Yeah. You mentioned GPT for electron density. So a GPT like system for generating molecules that can bind to host automatically. I mean that’s interesting. I’s really interesting. Applying this same kind of transform mechanism.
Lee Cronin
I mean, my team, I try and do things that are non obvious but non obvious in certain areas. And one of the things I was always asking about in chemistry, people like to represent molecules as graphs and it’s quite difficult. It’s really hard if you’re doing AI and chemistry, you really want to basically have good representations. You can generate new molecules are interesting. And I was thinking, well molecules aren’t really graphs and they’re not continuously differentiable. Could I do something that was continuously differentiable? I was like, well, molecules are actually made up of electron density. So I got thinking and say, well, okay, could there be a way where we could just basically take a database of readily solved electron densities for millions of molecules? So we took the electron density for millions of molecules and just train the model to learn what electron density is.
I mean, my team, I try and do things that are non obvious but non obvious in certain areas. And one of the things I was always asking about in chemistry, people like to represent molecules as graphs and it’s quite difficult. It’s really hard if you’re doing AI and chemistry, you really want to basically have good representations. You can generate new molecules are interesting. And I was thinking, well molecules aren’t really graphs and they’re not continuously differentiable. Could I do something that was continuously differentiable? I was like, well, molecules are actually made up of electron density. So I got thinking and say, well, okay, could there be a way where we could just basically take a database of readily solved electron densities for millions of molecules? So we took the electron density for millions of molecules and just train the model to learn what electron density is.
And so what we built was a system that you literally could give it a, let’s say you could take a protein that has a particular active site or a cup with a certain hole in it. You pour noise into it and with A GPT you turn the noise into electron density. And then in this case it hallucinates, like all of them do. But then hallucinations are good because it means I don’t have to train on such a huge dataset, because these data sets are very expensive. How do you produce it? So go back a step. So you’ve got all these molecules in this dataset, but what you’ve literally done is a quantum mechanical calculation. We produce electron densities for each molecule. So you say, oh, this representation of this molecule has these electron densities associated with it, so you know what the representation is and you train the neural network to know what electron density is.
So then you give it an unknown pocket. You pour in noise and you say, right, produce me electron density, it produces electron density that doesn’t look ridiculous. And what we did in this case is we produce electron density that maximizes the electrostatic potential, so the stickiness, but minimizes what we call the steric hindrance. So the overlaps, so it’s repulsive. So make the perfect fit. And then we then use kind of like a ChatGPT type thing to turn that electron density into what’s called a smile. A smile string is a way of representing a molecule in letters. And then we can then-
Lex Fridman
So it just generates them then.
So it just generates them then.
Lee Cronin
Just generates them. And then the other thing is then we bung that into the computer and then it just makes it.
Just generates them. And then the other thing is then we bung that into the computer and then it just makes it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, the computer being the thing that right… To generate-
Yeah, the computer being the thing that right… To generate-
Lee Cronin
The robot we’ve got that can basically just do chemistry. So we’ve kind of got this end-to-end drug discovery machine where you can say, “Oh, you want to bind to this active site, here you go.” I mean it is a bit leaky and things kind of break, but it is the proof of principle.
The robot we’ve got that can basically just do chemistry. So we’ve kind of got this end-to-end drug discovery machine where you can say, “Oh, you want to bind to this active site, here you go.” I mean it is a bit leaky and things kind of break, but it is the proof of principle.
Lex Fridman
But were the hallucinations, are those still accurate?
But were the hallucinations, are those still accurate?
Lee Cronin
Well the hallucinations are really great in this case, because in the case of a large language model, the hallucinations just make everything up. It doesn’t just make everything up, but it gives you an output that you are plausibly comfortable with and thinks you’re doing probabilistically. The problem on these tron density models is it’s very expensive to solve a shredding equation going up to many heavy atoms and large molecules. And so we wondered if we trained the system on up to nine heavy atoms, whether it would go beyond nine and it did, It started to generate molecules for 12. No problem. They look pretty good. And I was like, well this hallucination I will take for free. Thank you very much.
Well the hallucinations are really great in this case, because in the case of a large language model, the hallucinations just make everything up. It doesn’t just make everything up, but it gives you an output that you are plausibly comfortable with and thinks you’re doing probabilistically. The problem on these tron density models is it’s very expensive to solve a shredding equation going up to many heavy atoms and large molecules. And so we wondered if we trained the system on up to nine heavy atoms, whether it would go beyond nine and it did, It started to generate molecules for 12. No problem. They look pretty good. And I was like, well this hallucination I will take for free. Thank you very much.
Because it just basically… This is a case where interpolation extrapolation worked relatively well. And we were able to generate the really good molecules. And then what we were able to do here is, and this is a really good point and what I was trying to say earlier, that we were able to generate new molecules, from the known set, that would bind to the host. So a new guest would bind. Were these truly novel? Not really because they were constrained by the host. Were they new to us? Yes. So I do, well understand… I can concede that machine learning systems, artificial intelligence systems can generate new entities, but how novel are they? It remains to be seen.
Lex Fridman
And how novel the things that humans generate is also difficult to quantify. They seem novel.
And how novel the things that humans generate is also difficult to quantify. They seem novel.
Lee Cronin
That’s what a lot of people say. So the way to really get to genuine novelty, and assembly theory shows you the way, is to have different causal chains overlap. And this really, really resonates with the time is fundamental argument. And if you are bringing together a couple of objects with different initial conditions coming together, when they interact, the more different their histories, the more novelty they generate in time going forward. And so it could be that genuine novelty is basically about mix it up a little. And the human brain is able to mix it up a little little, and all that stimulus comes from the environment. But all I think I’m saying is the universe is deterministic going back in time. Non-deterministic going forward in time. Because the universe is too big in the future to contain in the present. Therefore these collisions of known things generate unknown things, that then become part of your data set and don’t appear weird. That’s how we give ourselves comfort. The past looks consistent with this initial condition hypothesis, but actually we’re generating more and more novelty. And that’s how it works. Simple.
That’s what a lot of people say. So the way to really get to genuine novelty, and assembly theory shows you the way, is to have different causal chains overlap. And this really, really resonates with the time is fundamental argument. And if you are bringing together a couple of objects with different initial conditions coming together, when they interact, the more different their histories, the more novelty they generate in time going forward. And so it could be that genuine novelty is basically about mix it up a little. And the human brain is able to mix it up a little little, and all that stimulus comes from the environment. But all I think I’m saying is the universe is deterministic going back in time. Non-deterministic going forward in time. Because the universe is too big in the future to contain in the present. Therefore these collisions of known things generate unknown things, that then become part of your data set and don’t appear weird. That’s how we give ourselves comfort. The past looks consistent with this initial condition hypothesis, but actually we’re generating more and more novelty. And that’s how it works. Simple.
Lex Fridman
So it’s hard to quantify novelty looking backwards. I mean the present and the future at the novelty generators.
So it’s hard to quantify novelty looking backwards. I mean the present and the future at the novelty generators.
Lee Cronin
But I like this whole idea of mining novelty. I think it is going to reveal why the limitations of current AI is a bit like a printing press. Everyone thought that when the printing press came that writing books is going to be terrible, that you had evil spirits and all this. They were just books.
But I like this whole idea of mining novelty. I think it is going to reveal why the limitations of current AI is a bit like a printing press. Everyone thought that when the printing press came that writing books is going to be terrible, that you had evil spirits and all this. They were just books.
Lex Fridman
And same with AI. But I think just the scale you can achieve in terms of impact with AI systems is pretty nerve wracking.
And same with AI. But I think just the scale you can achieve in terms of impact with AI systems is pretty nerve wracking.
Lee Cronin
But that’s what the big companies want you to think.
But that’s what the big companies want you to think.
Lex Fridman
But not in terms of destroy all humans. But you can have major consequences in the way social media has had major consequences, both positive and negative. And so you have to think about it and worry about it. But yeah, people that fear monger…
But not in terms of destroy all humans. But you can have major consequences in the way social media has had major consequences, both positive and negative. And so you have to think about it and worry about it. But yeah, people that fear monger…
Lee Cronin
My pet theory for this, you want to know?
My pet theory for this, you want to know?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lee Cronin
Is I think that a lot… And maybe I’m being… And I really do respect a lot of the people out there who are trying to have discourse about the positive future. So open AI guys, meta guys and all this. What I wonder if they’re trying to cover up for the fact that social media has had a pretty disastrous effect at some level, and they’re just trying to say, “Oh yeah, we should do this.” Covering up for the fact that we have got some problems with teenagers, and Instagram, and Snapchat, and all this stuff, and maybe they’re just overreacting now. It’s like, “Oh yeah, sorry, we made the bubonic plate and gave it to you all and you’re all dying.” And “Oh yeah, but look at this over here it’s even worse.”
Is I think that a lot… And maybe I’m being… And I really do respect a lot of the people out there who are trying to have discourse about the positive future. So open AI guys, meta guys and all this. What I wonder if they’re trying to cover up for the fact that social media has had a pretty disastrous effect at some level, and they’re just trying to say, “Oh yeah, we should do this.” Covering up for the fact that we have got some problems with teenagers, and Instagram, and Snapchat, and all this stuff, and maybe they’re just overreacting now. It’s like, “Oh yeah, sorry, we made the bubonic plate and gave it to you all and you’re all dying.” And “Oh yeah, but look at this over here it’s even worse.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s a little bit of that. But there’s also not enough celebration of the positive impact that all of these technologies have had. We tend to focus on the negative and tend to forget that. In part because it’s hard to measure. It is very hard to measure the positive impact social media had on the world.
Yeah, there’s a little bit of that. But there’s also not enough celebration of the positive impact that all of these technologies have had. We tend to focus on the negative and tend to forget that. In part because it’s hard to measure. It is very hard to measure the positive impact social media had on the world.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, I agree. But what I worry about right now is I do care about the ethics of what we’re doing. And one of the reasons why I’m so open about the things we’re trying to do in the lab, make life look at intelligence, all this, so people say, what are the consequences of this? And you say, what are the consequences of not doing it? And I think that what worries me right now in the present is lack of authenticated users and authenticated data and-
Yeah, I agree. But what I worry about right now is I do care about the ethics of what we’re doing. And one of the reasons why I’m so open about the things we’re trying to do in the lab, make life look at intelligence, all this, so people say, what are the consequences of this? And you say, what are the consequences of not doing it? And I think that what worries me right now in the present is lack of authenticated users and authenticated data and-
Lex Fridman
Human users.
Human users.
Lee Cronin
Yeah, human.
Yeah, human.
Lex Fridman
I still think that there will be AI agents that appear to be conscious, but they would have to be also authenticated and labeled as such. There’s too much value in that. Like friendships with AI systems. There’s too much meaningful human experiences to have with the AI systems that I just…
I still think that there will be AI agents that appear to be conscious, but they would have to be also authenticated and labeled as such. There’s too much value in that. Like friendships with AI systems. There’s too much meaningful human experiences to have with the AI systems that I just…
Lee Cronin
But that’s like a tool, right? It’s a bit like a meditation tool, right?
But that’s like a tool, right? It’s a bit like a meditation tool, right?
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Lee Cronin
Some people have a meditation tool, it makes them feel better. But I’m not sure you can ascribe sentience and legal rights to a chatbot that makes you feel less lonely.
Some people have a meditation tool, it makes them feel better. But I’m not sure you can ascribe sentience and legal rights to a chatbot that makes you feel less lonely.
Lex Fridman
Sentience, yes. I think legal rights, no. I think it’s the same. You can have a really deep, meaningful relationship with a dog.
Sentience, yes. I think legal rights, no. I think it’s the same. You can have a really deep, meaningful relationship with a dog.
Lee Cronin
Well the dog is sentient.
Well the dog is sentient.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Lee Cronin
The chatbots right now, using the technology we use, it’s not going to be sentient.
The chatbots right now, using the technology we use, it’s not going to be sentient.
God
Lex Fridman
This is going to be a fun continued conversation on Twitter that I look forward to. Since you’ve had also from another place some debates that were inspired by the assembly theory paper, let me ask you about God. Is there any room for notions of God in assembly theory? Of God.
This is going to be a fun continued conversation on Twitter that I look forward to. Since you’ve had also from another place some debates that were inspired by the assembly theory paper, let me ask you about God. Is there any room for notions of God in assembly theory? Of God.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. I don’t know what God is a… I mean, so God exists in our mind created by selection. So the human beings have created the concept of God in the same way that human beings have created the concept of super intelligence.
Yeah. I don’t know what God is a… I mean, so God exists in our mind created by selection. So the human beings have created the concept of God in the same way that human beings have created the concept of super intelligence.
Lex Fridman
Sure, but does it mean, does it not… It still could mean that that’s a projection from the real world where we’re just assigning words and concepts to a thing that is fundamental to the real world. That there is something out there that is a creative force underlying the universe.
Sure, but does it mean, does it not… It still could mean that that’s a projection from the real world where we’re just assigning words and concepts to a thing that is fundamental to the real world. That there is something out there that is a creative force underlying the universe.
Lee Cronin
I think the universe… There is a creative force in the universe, but I don’t think it’s sentient. So I do not understand the universe. So who am I to say that God doesn’t exist? I am an atheist, but I’m not an angry atheist. There’s some people I know that are angry atheists and say-
I think the universe… There is a creative force in the universe, but I don’t think it’s sentient. So I do not understand the universe. So who am I to say that God doesn’t exist? I am an atheist, but I’m not an angry atheist. There’s some people I know that are angry atheists and say-
Lex Fridman
Cranky.
Cranky.
Lee Cronin
Say that religious people are stupid. I don’t think that’s the case. I have faith in some things. I mean when I was a kid I was like, I need to know what the charge of electron is. And I was like, I can’t measure the charge on electron. I just gave up and had faith. Okay, you know, resistors worked. So when it comes to… I want to know why the universe is growing in the future and what humanity is going to become. And I’ve seen that the acquisition of knowledge via the generation of novelty to produce technology has uniformly made humans’ lives better. I would love to continue that tradition.
Say that religious people are stupid. I don’t think that’s the case. I have faith in some things. I mean when I was a kid I was like, I need to know what the charge of electron is. And I was like, I can’t measure the charge on electron. I just gave up and had faith. Okay, you know, resistors worked. So when it comes to… I want to know why the universe is growing in the future and what humanity is going to become. And I’ve seen that the acquisition of knowledge via the generation of novelty to produce technology has uniformly made humans’ lives better. I would love to continue that tradition.
Lex Fridman
You said that there’s that creative force. Do you think, just to think on that point, do you think there’s a creative force? Is there like a thing, like a driver that’s creating stuff?
You said that there’s that creative force. Do you think, just to think on that point, do you think there’s a creative force? Is there like a thing, like a driver that’s creating stuff?
Lee Cronin
Yeah, so I think that…
Yeah, so I think that…
Lex Fridman
And where? What is it? Can you describe it mathematically?
And where? What is it? Can you describe it mathematically?
Lee Cronin
Well, I think selection. I think selection.
Well, I think selection. I think selection.
Lex Fridman
Selection is the force.
Selection is the force.
Lee Cronin
Selection is the force in the universe. It creates novelty.
Selection is the force in the universe. It creates novelty.
Lex Fridman
So is selection somehow fundamental? Like what…
So is selection somehow fundamental? Like what…
Lee Cronin
Yeah, I think persistence of objects that could decay into nothing through operations that maintain that structure. I mean, think about it. It’s amazing that things exist at all. That we’re just not a big commentorial mess.
Yeah, I think persistence of objects that could decay into nothing through operations that maintain that structure. I mean, think about it. It’s amazing that things exist at all. That we’re just not a big commentorial mess.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Lee Cronin
So the fact that-
So the fact that-
Lex Fridman
And exist. A thing that exists persist in time.
And exist. A thing that exists persist in time.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. Let’s think, maybe the universe is actually in the present. The things… Everything that can exist in the present does exist.
Yeah. Let’s think, maybe the universe is actually in the present. The things… Everything that can exist in the present does exist.
Lex Fridman
Well that would mean it’s deterministic, right?
Well that would mean it’s deterministic, right?
Lee Cronin
I think the universes might. So the universe started super small. The past was deterministic, there wasn’t much going on. And it was able to mine mine, mine, mine, mine. And so the process is somehow generating universes basically… I’m trying to put this into words.
I think the universes might. So the universe started super small. The past was deterministic, there wasn’t much going on. And it was able to mine mine, mine, mine, mine. And so the process is somehow generating universes basically… I’m trying to put this into words.
Lex Fridman
Did you just say there’s no free will though?
Did you just say there’s no free will though?
Lee Cronin
No, I didn’t say that.
No, I didn’t say that.
Lex Fridman
As if-
As if-
Lee Cronin
Sorry, sorry, sorry.
Sorry, sorry, sorry.
Lex Fridman
-it can exist.
-it can exist.
Lee Cronin
I said there is free will. I’m saying that free will occurs at the boundary between the-
I said there is free will. I’m saying that free will occurs at the boundary between the-
Lex Fridman
The past and the future?
The past and the future?
Lee Cronin
The past and the future.
The past and the future.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I got you. But everything that can exist does exist.
Yeah, I got you. But everything that can exist does exist.
Lee Cronin
So everything that’s possible to exist at this… So no, I’m really pulling this…
So everything that’s possible to exist at this… So no, I’m really pulling this…
Lex Fridman
There’s a lot of loaded words there. There’s a time element loaded into that statement.
There’s a lot of loaded words there. There’s a time element loaded into that statement.
Lee Cronin
I think that the universe is able to do what it can in the present, right?
I think that the universe is able to do what it can in the present, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lee Cronin
And then I think in the future there are other things that could be possible. We can imagine lots of things, but they don’t all happen.
And then I think in the future there are other things that could be possible. We can imagine lots of things, but they don’t all happen.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Lee Cronin
So what-
So what-
Lex Fridman
So that’s where-
So that’s where-
Lee Cronin
So that’s what I guess I’m getting to.
So that’s what I guess I’m getting to.
Lex Fridman
-you sneak in free will right there.
-you sneak in free will right there.
Lee Cronin
Yeah. So I guess what I’m saying is what exists is a convolution of the past with the present, and the free will going into the future.
Yeah. So I guess what I’m saying is what exists is a convolution of the past with the present, and the free will going into the future.
Lex Fridman
Well, we could still imagine stuff. Right? We can imagine stuff that will never happen.
Well, we could still imagine stuff. Right? We can imagine stuff that will never happen.
Lee Cronin
And it’s amazing force. Because this is the most important thing that we don’t understand. Is our imaginations can actually change the future in a tangible way. Which is what the initial conditions and physics cannot predict. Your imagination has a causal consequence in the future.
And it’s amazing force. Because this is the most important thing that we don’t understand. Is our imaginations can actually change the future in a tangible way. Which is what the initial conditions and physics cannot predict. Your imagination has a causal consequence in the future.
Lex Fridman
Isn’t that weird to you?
Isn’t that weird to you?
Lee Cronin
Yeah. It breaks the laws of physics as we know them right now.
Yeah. It breaks the laws of physics as we know them right now.
Lex Fridman
So you think the imagination has a causal effect on the future?
So you think the imagination has a causal effect on the future?
Lee Cronin
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
But it does exist in there in the head.
But it does exist in there in the head.
Lee Cronin
It does, but-
It does, but-
Lex Fridman
There must be a lot of power in whatever’s going on. There could be a lot of power, whatever’s going on in there.
There must be a lot of power in whatever’s going on. There could be a lot of power, whatever’s going on in there.
Lee Cronin
If we then go back to the initial conditions, and that is simply not possible that can happen. But if we go into a universe where we accept that there is a finite ability to represent numbers. And you have rounding… Well not rounding errors, you have sum… What happens, your ability to make decisions, imagine and do stuff is that that interface between the certain and the uncertain. It’s not as Yashar was saying to me, “Randomness goes and you just randomly do random stuff.” It is that you are set free a little on your trajectory. Free will is about being able to explore on this narrow trajectory, that allows you to build… You have a choice about what you build. Or that choice is you interacting with a future in the present.
If we then go back to the initial conditions, and that is simply not possible that can happen. But if we go into a universe where we accept that there is a finite ability to represent numbers. And you have rounding… Well not rounding errors, you have sum… What happens, your ability to make decisions, imagine and do stuff is that that interface between the certain and the uncertain. It’s not as Yashar was saying to me, “Randomness goes and you just randomly do random stuff.” It is that you are set free a little on your trajectory. Free will is about being able to explore on this narrow trajectory, that allows you to build… You have a choice about what you build. Or that choice is you interacting with a future in the present.
Lex Fridman
What to you is most beautiful about this whole thing? The universe?
What to you is most beautiful about this whole thing? The universe?
Lee Cronin
The fact it seems to be very undecided, very open. The fact that every time I think I’m getting towards an answer to a question, there are so many more questions that make the chase.
The fact it seems to be very undecided, very open. The fact that every time I think I’m getting towards an answer to a question, there are so many more questions that make the chase.
Lex Fridman
Do you hate that it’s going to be over at some point for you?
Do you hate that it’s going to be over at some point for you?
Lee Cronin
No. Well for me. I think if you think about it, is it over for Newton now? Newton has had causal consequences in the future. We discuss him all the time,
No. Well for me. I think if you think about it, is it over for Newton now? Newton has had causal consequences in the future. We discuss him all the time,
Lex Fridman
His ideas, but not the person.
His ideas, but not the person.
Lee Cronin
The person just had a lot of causal power when he was alive. But oh my God, one of the things I want to do is leave as many Easter eggs in the future when I’m gone to go, “Oh, that’s cool.”
The person just had a lot of causal power when he was alive. But oh my God, one of the things I want to do is leave as many Easter eggs in the future when I’m gone to go, “Oh, that’s cool.”
Lex Fridman
Would you be very upset if somebody made a good large language model that’s fine tuned to Lee Cronin?
Would you be very upset if somebody made a good large language model that’s fine tuned to Lee Cronin?
Lee Cronin
It would be quite boring. Because I mean, I…
It would be quite boring. Because I mean, I…
Lex Fridman
No novelty generation?
No novelty generation?
Lee Cronin
I mean if it’s a faithful representation of what I’ve done in my life, that’s great. That’s an interesting artifact. But I think the most interesting thing about knowing each other is we don’t know what we’re going to do next.
I mean if it’s a faithful representation of what I’ve done in my life, that’s great. That’s an interesting artifact. But I think the most interesting thing about knowing each other is we don’t know what we’re going to do next.
Lex Fridman
Sure. Sure.
Sure. Sure.
Lee Cronin
I mean within some constraints I’ve got, I can predict some things about you. You can predict some things about me. But we can’t predict everything.
I mean within some constraints I’ve got, I can predict some things about you. You can predict some things about me. But we can’t predict everything.
Lex Fridman
Everything.
Everything.
Lee Cronin
And it’s because we can’t predict everything is why we’re exciting to come back and discuss and see. So yeah, I’m happy that it’ll be interesting that some things that I’ve done can be captured, but I’m pretty sure that my angle on mining novelty for the future will not be captured.
And it’s because we can’t predict everything is why we’re exciting to come back and discuss and see. So yeah, I’m happy that it’ll be interesting that some things that I’ve done can be captured, but I’m pretty sure that my angle on mining novelty for the future will not be captured.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Yeah. So that’s what life is, is just some novelty generation and then you’re done. Each one of us just generally a little bit. Or have the capacity to at least.
Yeah. Yeah. So that’s what life is, is just some novelty generation and then you’re done. Each one of us just generally a little bit. Or have the capacity to at least.
Lee Cronin
I think life is a selection produces life. And life affects a universe. Universes with life in them are materially, physically, fundamentally different than universes without life. And that’s super interesting. And I have no beginnings of understanding. I think maybe this is in a thousand years, there’ll be a new discipline. And the humans will be like, “Yeah, of course. This is how it all works.” Right?
I think life is a selection produces life. And life affects a universe. Universes with life in them are materially, physically, fundamentally different than universes without life. And that’s super interesting. And I have no beginnings of understanding. I think maybe this is in a thousand years, there’ll be a new discipline. And the humans will be like, “Yeah, of course. This is how it all works.” Right?
Lex Fridman
In retrospect, it’ll all be obvious I think.
In retrospect, it’ll all be obvious I think.
Lee Cronin
I think assembly theory is obvious, that’s why a lot of people got angry. They were like, “Oh my God, this is such nonsense.” And like, “Oh, actually it’s not quite.” But the writing’s really bad.
I think assembly theory is obvious, that’s why a lot of people got angry. They were like, “Oh my God, this is such nonsense.” And like, “Oh, actually it’s not quite.” But the writing’s really bad.
Lex Fridman
Well, I can’t wait to see where it evolves, Lee. And I am glad I get to exist in this universe with you. You’re a fascinating human. This is always a pleasure. I hope to talk to you many more times. And I’m a huge fan of just watching you create stuff in this world. And thank you for talking today.
Well, I can’t wait to see where it evolves, Lee. And I am glad I get to exist in this universe with you. You’re a fascinating human. This is always a pleasure. I hope to talk to you many more times. And I’m a huge fan of just watching you create stuff in this world. And thank you for talking today.
Lee Cronin
It’s a pleasure as always, Lex. Thanks for having me on.
It’s a pleasure as always, Lex. Thanks for having me on.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Lee Cronin. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Carl Sagan. We can judge our progress by the courage of our questions, and the depth of our answers. Our willingness to embrace what is true rather than what feels good. Thank you for listening. And hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Lee Cronin. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, let me leave you with some words from Carl Sagan. We can judge our progress by the courage of our questions, and the depth of our answers. Our willingness to embrace what is true rather than what feels good. Thank you for listening. And hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Lisa Randall: Dark Matter, Theoretical Physics, and Extinction Events | Lex Fridman Podcast #403
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #403 with Lisa Randall.
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This is the Lex Friedman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. Now, dear friends, here’s Lisa Randall.
One of the things you work on and write about is dark matter. We can’t see it, but there’s a lot of it in the universe. You also end one of your books with a Beatles song quote, “‘Got to be good-looking because he’s so hard to see.” What is dark matter? How should we think about it given that we can’t see it? How should we visualize it in our mind’s eye?
We can generalize this, but just for now to focus on dark matter, it’s something we know is there, and it’s not just one way we know it’s there. In my book, Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs, I talk about the many different ways. There’s eight or nine that we deduce not just the existence of dark matter, but how much is there, and they all agree.
Now, how do we know it’s there? Because of its gravitational force. Individually, a particle doesn’t have such a big gravitational force. In fact, gravity is an extremely weak force compared to other forces we know about in nature, but there’s a lot of dark matter out there. It carries a lot of energy. Five times the amount of energy as the matter. We know that’s in atoms, et cetera.
You can ask, how should we think about it? It’s just another form of matter that doesn’t interact with light, or at least as far as we know. It interacts gravitationally, it clumps, it forms galaxies, but it doesn’t interact with light, which means we just don’t see it. Most of our detection, before gravitational wave detectors, we only saw things because of their interactions with light in some sense.
In our galaxy, it’s roughly spherical unless it has its own interactions, that’s another story. We know that it’s roughly spherical, whereas ordinary matter can radiate and clumps into a disk. That’s why we see the Milky Way disk. On large scales, in some sense, yes, all the matter is similar in some sense.
In fact, dark matter is in some sense more important because it can collapse more readily than ordinary matter because ordinary matter has radiative forces, which makes it hard to collapse on small scales. Actually it’s dark matter that drives galaxy formation and then ordinary matter comes along with it.
There’s also just more of it, and because there’s more of it can start collapsing sooner. That is to say the energy density in dark matter dominates over radiation earlier than you would if you just had an ordinary matter.
In fact, I would say it’s more surprising that the matter that we know about is constitutes as big a fraction of the universe as it does. We’re limited, we’re human. The fact that we see 5% of the energy density of the universe, about one sixth of the energy density in matter, that’s remarkable. Why should that be? Anything could be out there, yet the universe that we see is a significant fraction.
I guess the disturbances from the dark matter, they create gravitational disturbances in the Oort Cloud at the edge of our solar system, and then that increases the rate of asteroids hitting earth.
Again, we have to get outside this mindset of just humans and ask what else could be there. What we suggested is that there’s a fraction of dark matter, not all the dark matter, but some of the dark matter, maybe it has interactions of its own just the same way in our universe, we have lots of different types of matter. We have nuclei, we have electrons, we have neutrons, we have forces.
It’s not a simple model, the standard model, but it does have some basic ingredients, so maybe dark matter also has some interesting structure to it. Maybe there’s some small fraction. The interesting thing is that if some of the dark matter does radiate, and I like to call it dark light because it’s light that we don’t see, but dark matter would see. It could radiate that and then it could perhaps collapse into a disk the same way ordinary matter collapsed into the Milky Way disk.
It’s not all the dark matter, it’s a fraction, but it could conceivably be a very thin disk of dark matter, thin, dense disk of dark matter. The question is do these exist? People have done studies now to think about whether they can find them. It’s an interesting target, it’s something you can measure. By measuring the positions and velocities of stars, you can find out what the structure of the Milky Way is, but the fun proposal was that the solar system orbits around the galaxy.
As it does so, it goes a little bit up and down kind of horses on a carousel. The suggestion was every time it goes through, you have an enhanced probability that you would dislodge something from the edge of the solar system in something called the Oort Cloud. The idea was that at those times, you’re more likely to have these cataclysmic events such as the amazing one that actually caused the last extinction that we know of for sure.
Also, I have to say if you think about it, it sounds like a story a five-year-old would make up. Maybe the dinosaurs were killed by some big rock that came and hit the earth, but then there really was a scientific story behind it. That’s also why I like the dark disk because there’s a scientific story behind it. As far-fetched as it might sound, you could actually go and look for the experimental consequences, for the observational consequences to test whether it’s true.
As you point out, it took many operations on many different scales. We had to have the formation of structure, the formation of galaxies, the formation of the solar system, the formation of our planet, the formation of humans. There’s so many steps that go into this. Humans in some part were the result of the fact that this big object hit the earth, made the dinosaurs go extinct, and mammals developed. It is an incredible story and yes, something else might come of it, but it won’t be us if we mess with it too much.
The reason it doesn’t collapse as far as we know is that it can’t radiate the same way. Because it can radiate ordinary matter collapses, and this actually, because of conservation of angular momentum, it stays a disk and it doesn’t just collapse to the center. Our suggestion was that maybe there are some components of dark matter that also radiate.
Like I said, that’s far from proven. People have looked for a disk, they see some evidence of some disks of certain densities, but these are all questions that are worth asking. Basically if we can figure it out from existing measurements, why not try?
The most popular candidate for dark matter probably until pretty recently because they haven’t found it, is something called WIMPs, Weakly Interacting Massive Particles, particles that have mass about the same as the Higgs boson mass, and it turns out then you would get about the right density of dark matter.
People really like that, of course, because it is connected to the standard model, the particles that we know about, and if it’s connected to that, we have a better chance of actually seeing it. Fortunately or unfortunately, it’s also a better chance that you can rule it out because you can look for it. So far, no one has found it. We’re still looking for
A lot of physicists, I’ll say particularly in Europe, but I’d say a lot of physicists were saying when that the Large Hadron Collider would have the energy reach necessary to discover what underlies the standard model. We don’t want to just discover the standard model, we want to know what the next step is.
I think here people were more cautious about that. They want to have a more comprehensive search that could get to higher energies, more events so that we could really more definitively rule it out. In that case, many people thought they knew what would be there. It happened to be a theory called supersymmetry. A lot of physicists thought it would be supersymmetry.
It’s one of the many factors I think that went into the fact that the Large Hadron Collider became the only machine in town, and the Superconducting Supercollider would’ve just been a much… If it had really had achieved what it was supposed to, would’ve been a much more robust test of the space.
I’d say for humanity, it’s both a tribute to the ability of discovery and the ability of really believing in things so that you have the confidence to go look for them, but it’s also a cautionary tale that you don’t want to assume things before they’ve been actually found. You want to believe in your theories, but you also want to question them at the same time in ways that you’re more likely to discover the truth.
It’s also impressive that so many countries work together to do this. It wasn’t just one country. It was also impressive in that it was a long-term project that people committed to and made it happen. It is a demonstration that when people set their minds to things and they commit to it, that they can do something amazing.
We’re seeing that with people now, too. I know people are worried just about AI taking over, and that’s a totally different story. We just don’t think about the future very much. We think about what we’re doing now, and we certainly don’t think enough about all the animals that we’re destroying, all the things that are precursors to humans that we rely on.
These aren’t predictable events necessarily. They’re only predictable on a grand scale, but sometimes they are. I think people were pretty aware that nuclear weapons were dangerous. I’m not sure people are as aware now as they were say, 20 or 30 years ago, and that certainly worries me. I have to say I was not as worried about AI as other people, but now I understand. It’s more that as soon as you create things that we lose control over, it’s scary.
The other thing that we’re learning from the events today is that it takes a few bad actors. It takes everyone to make things work well, it takes not that many things to make things go wrong. The issue with disease, we can find out what causes a disease, but to make things better is not necessarily that simple. Sometimes it is. But for things to be healthy, a lot of things have to work. For things to go wrong, only one thing has to go wrong. It’s amazing that we do it.
The same is true for democracy. For democracy to work, a lot of people have to believe in it. A few bad actors can destroy things sometimes. A lot of the things that we really rely on are delicate equilibrium situations. There is some robustness in the systems, we try to build in robustness, but a few extreme events can sometimes alter things. I think that’s what people are scared of today in many ways. They’re scared of it for democracy, they’re scared of it for peace, they’re scared of it for AI.
I think they’re not as scared as they should be about nuclear weapons, to be honest. I think that’s more serious danger than people realize. I think people are a little bit more scared about pandemics than they were before, but I still say they’re not super scared about it. So you’re right, there are these major events that can happen and we are setting things up so that they might happen, and we should be thinking about them. The question is who should be thinking about them? How should we be thinking about them? How do you make things happen on a global scale, because that’s really what we need.
It’s true that you have that, yes, this is scary, but you also have, this is cool feeling and I think we have to get around that because I think that yes, you can be in that, but I’m not sure that’s going to make people scared. Have they actually asked afterwards, are you more or less scared?
I think that’s something sometimes these movies miss, just the thing itself. You’re not thinking about the overall consequences. In some ways it was like the early Silicon Valley. People were just thinking what if we did this? What if we did that? Not keeping track of what the peripheral consequences are. You definitely see that happening with AI now. I think that was the moral of the battle that just happened, that it’s just full speed ahead.
You’re always at this edge where you’re trying to sort things out and there is something scary. You don’t know if there’s going to be a solution, you don’t know if you’re going to find it. It’s not something that can destroy the earth, it’s just something that you do on your individual level. But then of course there are much bigger things like the ones you’re talking about where they could actually be dangerous. The stuff I do, I just want to be clear, I’m doing theoretical physics. Not very dangerous, but sometimes things end up having bigger consequences than you think.
They interact through the strong force, the strong nuclear force. There’s something called the weak nuclear force and electromagnetism. Basically, all those particles and their interactions describe many, many things we understand. That’s the standard model. We now know about the Higgs boson, which is associated with how elementary particles get their mass. That piece of the puzzle has also been completed.
We also know that there are a weird array of masses of elementary particles. There’s not just the up and down quark, but there are heavier versions of the up and down quark. Charm and strange, top and bottom. There’s not just the electron, there’s a muon and a tau. There are particles called neutrinos, which are under intense study now, which are partnered with the leptons through the weak interactions.
We really do know these basic elements and we know the forces. When we’re doing particle physics experiments, we can usually even ignore gravity except in exceptional cases that we can talk about. Those are the basic elements in their interactions.
Dark matter stands outside that, it’s not interacting through those forces. When we look at the world around us, we don’t usually see the effects of dark matter. It’s because there’s so much of it that we do and it doesn’t have those forces that we know about. The standard model has worked spectacularly well. It’s been tested to a high degree of precision. People are still testing it.
One of the things we do as physicists is we actually want it to break down at some level, we’re looking for the precision measurement or the energy or whatever it will take where the standard model is no longer working. Not that it’s not working approximately, but we’re looking for the deviations. Those deviations are critical because they can tell us what underlies the standard model, which is what we really want to see next.
The other place is precision measurements. The standard model has been tested exquisitely, so if it’s been tested 1%, you want to look at a 10th of a percent. There are some processes that we know shouldn’t even happen at all in the standard model or happen at very suppressed level, and those are other things that we look for. All of those things could indicate there’s something beyond what we know about, which of course would be very exciting.
“Stocks may not achieve a precise value until they’re traded, but that doesn’t mean we can’t approximate their worth until they change hands. Similarly, electrons might not have definite properties, but they do exist. It’s true that the electron doesn’t exist as a classical object with definite position until the position is measured. But something was there – which physicists use a wave function to describe.” It’s a fascinating nuanced disagreement. Do electrons always exist or not? Does a tree fall in the forest if nobody’s there to see it?
I would say that those wave functions are real. One of the things that don’t forget that particle physics does that quantum field theory says is that electrons can be created and destroyed. It’s not that every electron has to be in the universe. That’s what happens at colliders, particles get created and destroyed, but that doesn’t mean that if I have electron in an atom, it’s not there. It’s certainly there, and we know about it. Its charge is there.
There might be different layers of reality that are built in terms of the matter that we know about in terms of the stuff we know about that. When I say we’ve measured everything, I say that with a grain of salt. I mean we’ve measured everything about the standard model. There’s lots of phenomena that we don’t understand, but often there are complex phenomena that will be given in terms of the fundamental ingredients that we know about.
The kind of science that’s going to happen in the more numerical age or even AI, what does it mean to answer a question? Does it mean that we can predict it? Does it mean that we can reproduce it? I think we’re coming up against the definition of what we mean by science as human beings. In terms of the science that we can do, I don’t think we’ll know it until we get there. We’re trying to solve hard problems and we’ve made progress.
If you think of how much science has advanced in the last century or century and a half, it’s incredible. We didn’t even know the universe was expanding at the beginning of the 20th century. We didn’t know about quantum mechanics at the beginning of the century, we didn’t know about special relativity. That’s a lot in a relatively short time, depending on how you think of time. I think it would be premature to say we know limitations.
The community tends to get segmented or fragmented into people who do one or the other, but there are definitely times… Some of my best collaborations with people who are more top-down than I am, so that we come up with interesting ideas that we wouldn’t have thought of if either one of us was working individually.
He was very much a bottom-up person, and in fact, he resisted top-down for a long time. Then when he tried to do the theory of general relativity or the general theory of relativity, whichever you want to call it, incorporating gravity into the system when you need some feedback, then he was helped by a mathematician who had developed some differential geometry and helped him figure out how to write down that.
After that, he thought top-down was the way to go, but he actually didn’t make that much progress. I think it’s naive to think it was just one or the other. In fact, a lot of people who made real progress were rooted in actual measurements.
That’s not to say the methods and advances in strength theory don’t exist, but they certainly weren’t able to immediately solve all the problems they thought they could solve. It has given us tools, it has given us some insights, but it becomes almost a sociological question of how much it should be one or the other.
I do think that you can get caught up in the problems themselves, and sometimes you can get caught up in the methods and just do other examples. The real physics insights often come from people who are thinking about physics as well as math.
You can say a lot of the things in a very different level about the internet. You could say has the internet helped do things? It definitely took on a life of its own in some sense, but it’s also something that we’re able to tame. I know that I, myself wouldn’t have been able to write books if the internet didn’t exist because I wouldn’t have had the time to go to the library and look everything up. It helped me enormously.
In some sense, AI could be that. In a very nice world, it could be a tool that helps us go a step further than we would and a lot more efficiently. It’s already done that to some extent. Or it could be like the parts of the internet that we can control that are ruining politics or whatever. There’s certainly a lot of indications that can do that. Then there are even bigger things that people speculate about AI being able to do its own things, but in terms of actually figuring things out, we’re in the early stages.
It forces us to… We don’t really understand how smart we are. We don’t understand how we think about things all that well, actually. But one thing is true though, we are a lot more efficient right now than computers and coming up with things, we require a lot less energy to do that. If computers figure out how to do that, then it’s going to be at a totally different ball game.
Here are clearly kinds of connections that we don’t know how we’re making, but we are making them. That’s going to be interesting. I say we’re in early stages, but this is changing very rapidly. Right now, I don’t think that it’s actually discovered new laws of physics, but could it in the future? Maybe it can.
While it was starting out, people were doing these kinds of toy problems, but what will it actually be applied to and what will it be optimized to do? There’s a lot of questions out there that it’s really important we start addressing.
Also, there’s really deep questions like what fraction are we actually seeing? If there are these other forces, if there is another way of seeing the world, are there universes beyond their own? If they’re so totally different, how do we even comprehend them? What would we even think about them? There’s a lot about trying to get beyond… It’s always just getting beyond our limited vision and limited experience and trying to see what underlies it, both at small scales and at large scales.
We just don’t know the answers. I’d like to think that we understand more about dark matter, about dark energy, about are there extra dimensions, things that we actually work on, but there’s probably a lot beyond what we work on that’s yet to be discovered.
That’s not actually the gravity we have, but there’s all sorts of phenomena that might be out there that we don’t know about. All sorts of evolution things, time dependence that we don’t know about. Of course, that’s from the point of view of particle physics, from the point of view of other kinds of physics, we’re just beginning, so who knows?
The other thing is sometimes if you get too far buried, you look out and you think there’s so much out there. Sometimes it’s just good to bring it back home and just think okay, can I have as good idea as the person next to me rather than the greatest physicist who ever lived? Right now, like you said, I think there’s lots of big issues out there, and it’s hard to balance that.
Sometimes it’s hard to forget the role of physics, but I think Wilson said it really well when he said when they were building Fermilab, it was like this won’t defend the country, but it’ll make it worth defending. It’s just the idea that in all this chaos, it’s still important that we still make progress in these things. Sometimes when major world events are happening, it’s easy to forget that. I think those are important too. You don’t want to forget those, but to try to keep that balance because we don’t want to lose what it is that makes humans special.
I talk about effective theory in my second book, Knocking On Heaven’s Door, a lot. It’s rather than ask the big questions, sometimes we just ask the questions about the immediate things that we can measure and like I said, we can sometimes tell one that we’ll fail, but we can have these effective theories. Sometimes I think when we approach these big questions, it’s good to do it from an effective theory point. Why do I find this satisfying? Why is the world we have the way it is?
We think things are beautiful that we live in. I’m not sure if we had different senses or different ways of looking at things, we wouldn’t necessarily find it beautiful. But I have to say, it is fantastic that no matter how many times I see a sunset, I will always find it beautiful. I don’t think I ever see a sunset as say whatever. It’s just always beautiful.
There are things that as humans, clearly resonate with us, but we were maybe evolved that way. But that’s about us. In terms of figuring out the universe, it’s amazing how far we’ve gotten. We have discovered many, many wonderful things, but there’s a lot more out there and I hope we have the opportunity to keep going.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 0:24 – Dark matter
- 19:16 – Extinction events
- 30:16 – Particle physics
- 45:30 – Physics vs mathematics
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Lisa Randall, a theoretical physicist and cosmologist at Harvard. Her work involves improving our understanding of particle physics, supersymmetry, baryogenesis, cosmological inflation, and dark matter.
The following is a conversation with Lisa Randall, a theoretical physicist and cosmologist at Harvard. Her work involves improving our understanding of particle physics, supersymmetry, baryogenesis, cosmological inflation, and dark matter.
This is the Lex Friedman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. Now, dear friends, here’s Lisa Randall.
Dark matter
One of the things you work on and write about is dark matter. We can’t see it, but there’s a lot of it in the universe. You also end one of your books with a Beatles song quote, “‘Got to be good-looking because he’s so hard to see.” What is dark matter? How should we think about it given that we can’t see it? How should we visualize it in our mind’s eye?
Lisa Randall
I think one of the really important things that physics teaches you is just our limitations, but also our abilities. The fact that we can deduce the existence of something that we don’t directly see is really a tribute to people that we can do that. It’s also something that tells you, you can’t overly rely on your direct senses. If you just relied on just what you see directly, you would miss so much of what’s happening in the world.
I think one of the really important things that physics teaches you is just our limitations, but also our abilities. The fact that we can deduce the existence of something that we don’t directly see is really a tribute to people that we can do that. It’s also something that tells you, you can’t overly rely on your direct senses. If you just relied on just what you see directly, you would miss so much of what’s happening in the world.
We can generalize this, but just for now to focus on dark matter, it’s something we know is there, and it’s not just one way we know it’s there. In my book, Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs, I talk about the many different ways. There’s eight or nine that we deduce not just the existence of dark matter, but how much is there, and they all agree.
Now, how do we know it’s there? Because of its gravitational force. Individually, a particle doesn’t have such a big gravitational force. In fact, gravity is an extremely weak force compared to other forces we know about in nature, but there’s a lot of dark matter out there. It carries a lot of energy. Five times the amount of energy as the matter. We know that’s in atoms, et cetera.
You can ask, how should we think about it? It’s just another form of matter that doesn’t interact with light, or at least as far as we know. It interacts gravitationally, it clumps, it forms galaxies, but it doesn’t interact with light, which means we just don’t see it. Most of our detection, before gravitational wave detectors, we only saw things because of their interactions with light in some sense.
Lex Fridman
In theory, it behaves just like any other matter, it just doesn’t interact with light.
In theory, it behaves just like any other matter, it just doesn’t interact with light.
Lisa Randall
When we say it interacts just like any other form of matter, we have to be careful because gravitationally, it interacts like other forms of matter, but it doesn’t experience electromagnetism, which is why it has a different distribution.
When we say it interacts just like any other form of matter, we have to be careful because gravitationally, it interacts like other forms of matter, but it doesn’t experience electromagnetism, which is why it has a different distribution.
In our galaxy, it’s roughly spherical unless it has its own interactions, that’s another story. We know that it’s roughly spherical, whereas ordinary matter can radiate and clumps into a disk. That’s why we see the Milky Way disk. On large scales, in some sense, yes, all the matter is similar in some sense.
In fact, dark matter is in some sense more important because it can collapse more readily than ordinary matter because ordinary matter has radiative forces, which makes it hard to collapse on small scales. Actually it’s dark matter that drives galaxy formation and then ordinary matter comes along with it.
There’s also just more of it, and because there’s more of it can start collapsing sooner. That is to say the energy density in dark matter dominates over radiation earlier than you would if you just had an ordinary matter.
Lex Fridman
It’s part of the story of the origin of the galaxy, part of the story of the end of the galaxy, and part of the story of all the various interactions throughout.
It’s part of the story of the origin of the galaxy, part of the story of the end of the galaxy, and part of the story of all the various interactions throughout.
Lisa Randall
Exactly. In my book, I make jokes about, it’s like when we think about a building, we think about the architect, we think about the high level, but we forget about all the workers that did all the grunt work. In fact, dark matter was really important in the formation of our universe, and we forget that sometimes.
Exactly. In my book, I make jokes about, it’s like when we think about a building, we think about the architect, we think about the high level, but we forget about all the workers that did all the grunt work. In fact, dark matter was really important in the formation of our universe, and we forget that sometimes.
Lex Fridman
That’s a metaphor on top of a metaphor. Okay. The unheard voices that do the actual work.
That’s a metaphor on top of a metaphor. Okay. The unheard voices that do the actual work.
Lisa Randall
Exactly. No, but it is a metaphor, but it also captures something because the fact is we don’t directly see it, so we forget it’s there or we don’t understand it’s there, or we think it’s not. The fact that we don’t see it makes it no less legitimate, it just means that we have challenges in order to find out exactly what it is.
Exactly. No, but it is a metaphor, but it also captures something because the fact is we don’t directly see it, so we forget it’s there or we don’t understand it’s there, or we think it’s not. The fact that we don’t see it makes it no less legitimate, it just means that we have challenges in order to find out exactly what it is.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but the things we cannot see that nevertheless have a gravitational interaction with the things we can’t see is at the layman level, it’s just mind-blowing.
Yeah, but the things we cannot see that nevertheless have a gravitational interaction with the things we can’t see is at the layman level, it’s just mind-blowing.
Lisa Randall
It is and it isn’t because I think what it’s teaching us is that we’re human, the universe is what it is, and we’re trying to interact with that universe and discover what it is. We’ve discovered, amazing things.
It is and it isn’t because I think what it’s teaching us is that we’re human, the universe is what it is, and we’re trying to interact with that universe and discover what it is. We’ve discovered, amazing things.
In fact, I would say it’s more surprising that the matter that we know about is constitutes as big a fraction of the universe as it does. We’re limited, we’re human. The fact that we see 5% of the energy density of the universe, about one sixth of the energy density in matter, that’s remarkable. Why should that be? Anything could be out there, yet the universe that we see is a significant fraction.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but a lot of our intuition, I think operates using visualizations in the mind.
Yeah, but a lot of our intuition, I think operates using visualizations in the mind.
Lisa Randall
That’s absolutely true. Certainly writing books, I realized also how many of our words are based on how we see the world, and that’s true. That’s actually one of the fantastic things about physics is that it teaches you how to go beyond your immediate intuition to develop intuitions that apply at different distances, different scales, different ways of thinking about things.
That’s absolutely true. Certainly writing books, I realized also how many of our words are based on how we see the world, and that’s true. That’s actually one of the fantastic things about physics is that it teaches you how to go beyond your immediate intuition to develop intuitions that apply at different distances, different scales, different ways of thinking about things.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. How do you anthropomorphize dark matter?
Yeah. How do you anthropomorphize dark matter?
Lisa Randall
I just did, I think. I made it the grunt workers.
I just did, I think. I made it the grunt workers.
Lex Fridman
Oh yeah, that’s good. You did. That’s why you get paid the big bucks and write the great books. Okay, you also write in that book about dark matter, having to do something with the extinction events, the extinction of the dinosaurs, which is a fascinating presentation of how everything is connected.
Oh yeah, that’s good. You did. That’s why you get paid the big bucks and write the great books. Okay, you also write in that book about dark matter, having to do something with the extinction events, the extinction of the dinosaurs, which is a fascinating presentation of how everything is connected.
I guess the disturbances from the dark matter, they create gravitational disturbances in the Oort Cloud at the edge of our solar system, and then that increases the rate of asteroids hitting earth.
Lisa Randall
I want to be really clear, this was a speculative theory.
I want to be really clear, this was a speculative theory.
Lex Fridman
I love it, though.
I love it, though.
Lisa Randall
I liked it too. We still don’t know for sure, but what we liked about it… Let me take a step back. We usually assume that dark matter, we being physicists, that it’s just one thing. It’s just basically non-interacting aside from gravity or very weakly interacting matter.
I liked it too. We still don’t know for sure, but what we liked about it… Let me take a step back. We usually assume that dark matter, we being physicists, that it’s just one thing. It’s just basically non-interacting aside from gravity or very weakly interacting matter.
Again, we have to get outside this mindset of just humans and ask what else could be there. What we suggested is that there’s a fraction of dark matter, not all the dark matter, but some of the dark matter, maybe it has interactions of its own just the same way in our universe, we have lots of different types of matter. We have nuclei, we have electrons, we have neutrons, we have forces.
It’s not a simple model, the standard model, but it does have some basic ingredients, so maybe dark matter also has some interesting structure to it. Maybe there’s some small fraction. The interesting thing is that if some of the dark matter does radiate, and I like to call it dark light because it’s light that we don’t see, but dark matter would see. It could radiate that and then it could perhaps collapse into a disk the same way ordinary matter collapsed into the Milky Way disk.
It’s not all the dark matter, it’s a fraction, but it could conceivably be a very thin disk of dark matter, thin, dense disk of dark matter. The question is do these exist? People have done studies now to think about whether they can find them. It’s an interesting target, it’s something you can measure. By measuring the positions and velocities of stars, you can find out what the structure of the Milky Way is, but the fun proposal was that the solar system orbits around the galaxy.
As it does so, it goes a little bit up and down kind of horses on a carousel. The suggestion was every time it goes through, you have an enhanced probability that you would dislodge something from the edge of the solar system in something called the Oort Cloud. The idea was that at those times, you’re more likely to have these cataclysmic events such as the amazing one that actually caused the last extinction that we know of for sure.
Lex Fridman
It wasn’t so amazing for the dinosaurs.
It wasn’t so amazing for the dinosaurs.
Lisa Randall
Or for two thirds of the species on the planet.
Or for two thirds of the species on the planet.
Lex Fridman
But it gets amazing for humans. It wouldn’t be-
But it gets amazing for humans. It wouldn’t be-
Lisa Randall
What really is amazing… I talk about this in Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs. It is just an amazing scientific story because it really is one of the real stories that combine together different fields of science. Geologists at the time or people thought that things happen slowly and this would be a cataclysmic event.
What really is amazing… I talk about this in Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs. It is just an amazing scientific story because it really is one of the real stories that combine together different fields of science. Geologists at the time or people thought that things happen slowly and this would be a cataclysmic event.
Also, I have to say if you think about it, it sounds like a story a five-year-old would make up. Maybe the dinosaurs were killed by some big rock that came and hit the earth, but then there really was a scientific story behind it. That’s also why I like the dark disk because there’s a scientific story behind it. As far-fetched as it might sound, you could actually go and look for the experimental consequences, for the observational consequences to test whether it’s true.
Lex Fridman
I wish you could know high-resolution details of where that asteroid came from, where in the Oort Cloud, why it happened, is it in fact because of dark matter? Just the full tracing back to the origin of the universe because humans seem to be somewhat special. It seems like so many fascinating events at all scales of physics had to happen for [inaudible 00:10:17].
I wish you could know high-resolution details of where that asteroid came from, where in the Oort Cloud, why it happened, is it in fact because of dark matter? Just the full tracing back to the origin of the universe because humans seem to be somewhat special. It seems like so many fascinating events at all scales of physics had to happen for [inaudible 00:10:17].
Lisa Randall
I’m really, really glad you mentioned that because actually that was one of the main points of my book, Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs. One of the reasons I wrote it was because I really think we are abusing the planet, we’re changing the planet way too quickly. Just like anything else, when you alter things, it’s good to think about the history of what it took to get here.
I’m really, really glad you mentioned that because actually that was one of the main points of my book, Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs. One of the reasons I wrote it was because I really think we are abusing the planet, we’re changing the planet way too quickly. Just like anything else, when you alter things, it’s good to think about the history of what it took to get here.
As you point out, it took many operations on many different scales. We had to have the formation of structure, the formation of galaxies, the formation of the solar system, the formation of our planet, the formation of humans. There’s so many steps that go into this. Humans in some part were the result of the fact that this big object hit the earth, made the dinosaurs go extinct, and mammals developed. It is an incredible story and yes, something else might come of it, but it won’t be us if we mess with it too much.
Lex Fridman
But it is on a grand scale, earth is a pretty resilient system. Can you just clarify, just fascinating, the shape of things. The shape of the Milky Way’s… Of the observable stuff is mostly flat. You said dark matter tends to be spherical, but a subset of that might be a flat disk.
But it is on a grand scale, earth is a pretty resilient system. Can you just clarify, just fascinating, the shape of things. The shape of the Milky Way’s… Of the observable stuff is mostly flat. You said dark matter tends to be spherical, but a subset of that might be a flat disk.
Lisa Randall
You want to hear about the shape of things.
You want to hear about the shape of things.
Lex Fridman
Yes, please.
Yes, please.
Lisa Randall
Structure formed early on, and now our structure that we live in is… We know about the Milky Way galaxy. The Milky Way galaxy has the disk you can see in a dry dark place, that’s where stars and light is, but you can also measure in some ways the dark matter. We believe that dark matter is more or less spherically distributed. Like we said, there’s a lot of it, not necessarily in the disk, but just because it’s a sphere, there’s a lot of it sitting there.
Structure formed early on, and now our structure that we live in is… We know about the Milky Way galaxy. The Milky Way galaxy has the disk you can see in a dry dark place, that’s where stars and light is, but you can also measure in some ways the dark matter. We believe that dark matter is more or less spherically distributed. Like we said, there’s a lot of it, not necessarily in the disk, but just because it’s a sphere, there’s a lot of it sitting there.
The reason it doesn’t collapse as far as we know is that it can’t radiate the same way. Because it can radiate ordinary matter collapses, and this actually, because of conservation of angular momentum, it stays a disk and it doesn’t just collapse to the center. Our suggestion was that maybe there are some components of dark matter that also radiate.
Like I said, that’s far from proven. People have looked for a disk, they see some evidence of some disks of certain densities, but these are all questions that are worth asking. Basically if we can figure it out from existing measurements, why not try?
Lex Fridman
Okay, so not all dark matter is made the same.
Okay, so not all dark matter is made the same.
Lisa Randall
That’s a possibility. We actually don’t know what dark matter is in the first place, we don’t know what most of it is, we don’t know what a fraction is. It’s hard to measure. Why is it hard to measure for exactly the reason you said earlier, we don’t see it. We want to think of possibilities for what it can be, especially if those give rise to some observational consequences. It’s a tough game because it’s not something that’s just there for the taking. You have to think about what it could be and how you might find it.
That’s a possibility. We actually don’t know what dark matter is in the first place, we don’t know what most of it is, we don’t know what a fraction is. It’s hard to measure. Why is it hard to measure for exactly the reason you said earlier, we don’t see it. We want to think of possibilities for what it can be, especially if those give rise to some observational consequences. It’s a tough game because it’s not something that’s just there for the taking. You have to think about what it could be and how you might find it.
Lex Fridman
The way you detect it is gravitational effects on things we can see.
The way you detect it is gravitational effects on things we can see.
Lisa Randall
That would be the way you detect the type of dark matter. I’ve been talking about people have suggestions for other forms of dark matter. They could be particles called axions, they could be other types of particles, and then there are different ways of detecting it.
That would be the way you detect the type of dark matter. I’ve been talking about people have suggestions for other forms of dark matter. They could be particles called axions, they could be other types of particles, and then there are different ways of detecting it.
The most popular candidate for dark matter probably until pretty recently because they haven’t found it, is something called WIMPs, Weakly Interacting Massive Particles, particles that have mass about the same as the Higgs boson mass, and it turns out then you would get about the right density of dark matter.
People really like that, of course, because it is connected to the standard model, the particles that we know about, and if it’s connected to that, we have a better chance of actually seeing it. Fortunately or unfortunately, it’s also a better chance that you can rule it out because you can look for it. So far, no one has found it. We’re still looking for
Lex Fridman
Is that one of the hopes of the Large Hadron Collider?
Is that one of the hopes of the Large Hadron Collider?
Lisa Randall
That was originally one of the hopes of Large Hadron Collider. I’d say at this point, it would be very unlikely given what they’ve already accomplished, but there are these underground detectors, xenon detectors that look for dark matter coming in, and they are going to try to achieve a much stronger bound than exists today.
That was originally one of the hopes of Large Hadron Collider. I’d say at this point, it would be very unlikely given what they’ve already accomplished, but there are these underground detectors, xenon detectors that look for dark matter coming in, and they are going to try to achieve a much stronger bound than exists today.
Lex Fridman
Just to take that tangent, looking back now, what’s the biggest, to you, insight to humanity that the LHC has been able to provide?
Just to take that tangent, looking back now, what’s the biggest, to you, insight to humanity that the LHC has been able to provide?
Lisa Randall
It’s interesting. It’s both a major victory. The Higgs boson was proposed 50 years ago, and it was discovered. The Higgs mechanism seemed to be the only way to explain elementary particle masses and it was right so on the one hand, it was a major victory. On the other hand, I’ve been in physics long enough to know it was also a cautionary tale in some sense because at the time I started out in physics, we had proposed something in the United States called the Superconducting Supercollider.
It’s interesting. It’s both a major victory. The Higgs boson was proposed 50 years ago, and it was discovered. The Higgs mechanism seemed to be the only way to explain elementary particle masses and it was right so on the one hand, it was a major victory. On the other hand, I’ve been in physics long enough to know it was also a cautionary tale in some sense because at the time I started out in physics, we had proposed something in the United States called the Superconducting Supercollider.
A lot of physicists, I’ll say particularly in Europe, but I’d say a lot of physicists were saying when that the Large Hadron Collider would have the energy reach necessary to discover what underlies the standard model. We don’t want to just discover the standard model, we want to know what the next step is.
I think here people were more cautious about that. They want to have a more comprehensive search that could get to higher energies, more events so that we could really more definitively rule it out. In that case, many people thought they knew what would be there. It happened to be a theory called supersymmetry. A lot of physicists thought it would be supersymmetry.
It’s one of the many factors I think that went into the fact that the Large Hadron Collider became the only machine in town, and the Superconducting Supercollider would’ve just been a much… If it had really had achieved what it was supposed to, would’ve been a much more robust test of the space.
I’d say for humanity, it’s both a tribute to the ability of discovery and the ability of really believing in things so that you have the confidence to go look for them, but it’s also a cautionary tale that you don’t want to assume things before they’ve been actually found. You want to believe in your theories, but you also want to question them at the same time in ways that you’re more likely to discover the truth.
Lex Fridman
It’s also an illustration of grand engineering efforts that humanity can take on and maybe a lesson that you could go even bigger.
It’s also an illustration of grand engineering efforts that humanity can take on and maybe a lesson that you could go even bigger.
Lisa Randall
I’m really glad you said that though too, because that’s absolutely true. It really is an impressive… It’s impressive in so many ways. It’s impressive technologically, it’s impressive at engineering level.
I’m really glad you said that though too, because that’s absolutely true. It really is an impressive… It’s impressive in so many ways. It’s impressive technologically, it’s impressive at engineering level.
It’s also impressive that so many countries work together to do this. It wasn’t just one country. It was also impressive in that it was a long-term project that people committed to and made it happen. It is a demonstration that when people set their minds to things and they commit to it, that they can do something amazing.
Lex Fridman
Also in the United States, maybe a lesson that bureaucracy can slow things down to [inaudible 00:17:24].
Also in the United States, maybe a lesson that bureaucracy can slow things down to [inaudible 00:17:24].
Lisa Randall
Bureaucracy and politics.
Bureaucracy and politics.
Lex Fridman
Politics.
Politics.
Lisa Randall
And economics. Many things can make them faster and make them slower.
And economics. Many things can make them faster and make them slower.
Lex Fridman
Science is the way to make progress, politics is the way to slow that progress down. And here we are.
Science is the way to make progress, politics is the way to slow that progress down. And here we are.
Lisa Randall
I don’t want to overstate that because without politics, the [inaudible 00:17:42] wouldn’t happen either.
I don’t want to overstate that because without politics, the [inaudible 00:17:42] wouldn’t happen either.
Lex Fridman
You need broccoli.
You need broccoli.
Lisa Randall
Sometimes I do think… You’re not asking this question, but sometimes I do think when I think about some of these conflicts, sometimes it’s just good to have a project that people work on together. There were some efforts to do that in science too, to have Palestinians and Israelis work together, a project called Sesame. I think it’s not a bad idea when you can do that, when you can get… Forget the politics and just focus on some particular project. Sometimes that can work.
Sometimes I do think… You’re not asking this question, but sometimes I do think when I think about some of these conflicts, sometimes it’s just good to have a project that people work on together. There were some efforts to do that in science too, to have Palestinians and Israelis work together, a project called Sesame. I think it’s not a bad idea when you can do that, when you can get… Forget the politics and just focus on some particular project. Sometimes that can work.
Lex Fridman
Some kind of forcing function, some kind of deadline that gets people to sit in a room together and you’re working on a thing. As part of that, you realize the common humanity, that you all have the same concerns, the same hopes, the same fears, that you are all human. That’s an accidental side effect of working together on a thing.
Some kind of forcing function, some kind of deadline that gets people to sit in a room together and you’re working on a thing. As part of that, you realize the common humanity, that you all have the same concerns, the same hopes, the same fears, that you are all human. That’s an accidental side effect of working together on a thing.
Lisa Randall
That’s absolutely true. It’s one of the reasons CERN was formed actually. It was post-World War II, and a lot of European physicists had actually left Europe and they wanted to see Europeans work together and rebuild, and it worked. They did. It’s true, I often think that, that one of the major problems is we just don’t meet enough people so that everyone… When they seem like the other, it’s more easy to forget their humanity. I think it is important to have these connections.
That’s absolutely true. It’s one of the reasons CERN was formed actually. It was post-World War II, and a lot of European physicists had actually left Europe and they wanted to see Europeans work together and rebuild, and it worked. They did. It’s true, I often think that, that one of the major problems is we just don’t meet enough people so that everyone… When they seem like the other, it’s more easy to forget their humanity. I think it is important to have these connections.
Extinction events
Lex Fridman
Given the complexity, all cosmological scales involved here that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, when you look out at the future of earth, do you worry about future extinction events?
Given the complexity, all cosmological scales involved here that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, when you look out at the future of earth, do you worry about future extinction events?
Lisa Randall
I do think that we might be in the middle of an extinction right now if you define it by the number of species that are getting killed off. It’s subtle, but it’s a complex system. The way things respond to events is sometimes things evolve, sometimes animals just move to another place. The way we’ve developed the earth, it’s very hard for species just to move somewhere else.
I do think that we might be in the middle of an extinction right now if you define it by the number of species that are getting killed off. It’s subtle, but it’s a complex system. The way things respond to events is sometimes things evolve, sometimes animals just move to another place. The way we’ve developed the earth, it’s very hard for species just to move somewhere else.
We’re seeing that with people now, too. I know people are worried just about AI taking over, and that’s a totally different story. We just don’t think about the future very much. We think about what we’re doing now, and we certainly don’t think enough about all the animals that we’re destroying, all the things that are precursors to humans that we rely on.
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting to think whether the things that threaten us is the stuff we see that’s happening gradually or the stuff we don’t really see that’s going to happen all of a sudden. I sometimes think about what should we be worried about? It seems like with the asteroids or nuclear war, it could be stuff that just happens one day. When I say one day meaning over a span of a few days or a few months, but not on a scale of decades and centuries. We sometimes mostly talk about stuff that’s happening gradually, but we can be really surprised.
It’s interesting to think whether the things that threaten us is the stuff we see that’s happening gradually or the stuff we don’t really see that’s going to happen all of a sudden. I sometimes think about what should we be worried about? It seems like with the asteroids or nuclear war, it could be stuff that just happens one day. When I say one day meaning over a span of a few days or a few months, but not on a scale of decades and centuries. We sometimes mostly talk about stuff that’s happening gradually, but we can be really surprised.
Lisa Randall
It’s actually really interesting. That was actually one of the reasons it took a while to determine what it was that it caused the last extinction because people did think at the time, many people thought that things were more gradual, and the idea of extinction was actually a novel concept at some point.
It’s actually really interesting. That was actually one of the reasons it took a while to determine what it was that it caused the last extinction because people did think at the time, many people thought that things were more gradual, and the idea of extinction was actually a novel concept at some point.
These aren’t predictable events necessarily. They’re only predictable on a grand scale, but sometimes they are. I think people were pretty aware that nuclear weapons were dangerous. I’m not sure people are as aware now as they were say, 20 or 30 years ago, and that certainly worries me. I have to say I was not as worried about AI as other people, but now I understand. It’s more that as soon as you create things that we lose control over, it’s scary.
The other thing that we’re learning from the events today is that it takes a few bad actors. It takes everyone to make things work well, it takes not that many things to make things go wrong. The issue with disease, we can find out what causes a disease, but to make things better is not necessarily that simple. Sometimes it is. But for things to be healthy, a lot of things have to work. For things to go wrong, only one thing has to go wrong. It’s amazing that we do it.
The same is true for democracy. For democracy to work, a lot of people have to believe in it. A few bad actors can destroy things sometimes. A lot of the things that we really rely on are delicate equilibrium situations. There is some robustness in the systems, we try to build in robustness, but a few extreme events can sometimes alter things. I think that’s what people are scared of today in many ways. They’re scared of it for democracy, they’re scared of it for peace, they’re scared of it for AI.
I think they’re not as scared as they should be about nuclear weapons, to be honest. I think that’s more serious danger than people realize. I think people are a little bit more scared about pandemics than they were before, but I still say they’re not super scared about it. So you’re right, there are these major events that can happen and we are setting things up so that they might happen, and we should be thinking about them. The question is who should be thinking about them? How should we be thinking about them? How do you make things happen on a global scale, because that’s really what we need.
Lex Fridman
It certainly shouldn’t be a source of division, it should be a source of grand collaboration probably.
It certainly shouldn’t be a source of division, it should be a source of grand collaboration probably.
Lisa Randall
Wouldn’t that be nice?
Wouldn’t that be nice?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I just wonder what it’d be like to be a dinosaur. It must have been beautiful to look at that asteroid enter the atmosphere. Until everything…. Man, that would be one of the things I would travel back in time to just to watch it.
Yeah. I just wonder what it’d be like to be a dinosaur. It must have been beautiful to look at that asteroid enter the atmosphere. Until everything…. Man, that would be one of the things I would travel back in time to just to watch it.
Lisa Randall
That’s also one of the things that I think you probably could do with virtual reality. I don’t think you have to be there and get extinct.
That’s also one of the things that I think you probably could do with virtual reality. I don’t think you have to be there and get extinct.
Lex Fridman
To just experience it.
To just experience it.
Lisa Randall
I think there’s something… It’s an event. You’re just watching. You’re not doing anything, you’re just looking at it, so maybe you could just recreate it.
I think there’s something… It’s an event. You’re just watching. You’re not doing anything, you’re just looking at it, so maybe you could just recreate it.
Lex Fridman
I actually heard that there’s a nuclear weapon explosion experience in virtual reality that’s good to remind you about what it would feel like.
I actually heard that there’s a nuclear weapon explosion experience in virtual reality that’s good to remind you about what it would feel like.
Lisa Randall
I have to say, I got an award from the Museum of Nuclear History and Technology in the Southwest, and I went to visit the museum, which turned out to be mostly a museum of nuclear weapons. The scary thing is that they look really cool.
I have to say, I got an award from the Museum of Nuclear History and Technology in the Southwest, and I went to visit the museum, which turned out to be mostly a museum of nuclear weapons. The scary thing is that they look really cool.
It’s true that you have that, yes, this is scary, but you also have, this is cool feeling and I think we have to get around that because I think that yes, you can be in that, but I’m not sure that’s going to make people scared. Have they actually asked afterwards, are you more or less scared?
Lex Fridman
That’s a really good point. That’s a good summary of just humanity in general. We’re attracted to creating cool stuff, even though it can be dangerous.
That’s a really good point. That’s a good summary of just humanity in general. We’re attracted to creating cool stuff, even though it can be dangerous.
Lisa Randall
Actually, that was the really interesting thing about visiting that museum, actually. It was very nice because I had a tour from people who had been working there in the Cold War and actually one or two people from the Manhattan Project. It was a very cool tour. You just realize just how just the thing itself gets you so excited.
Actually, that was the really interesting thing about visiting that museum, actually. It was very nice because I had a tour from people who had been working there in the Cold War and actually one or two people from the Manhattan Project. It was a very cool tour. You just realize just how just the thing itself gets you so excited.
I think that’s something sometimes these movies miss, just the thing itself. You’re not thinking about the overall consequences. In some ways it was like the early Silicon Valley. People were just thinking what if we did this? What if we did that? Not keeping track of what the peripheral consequences are. You definitely see that happening with AI now. I think that was the moral of the battle that just happened, that it’s just full speed ahead.
Lex Fridman
Which gives me a really great transition to another quote in your book. You write about the experience of facing the sublime in physics, and you quote Rainer Rilke. “For beauty is nothing but the beginning of terror, which we are still just able to endure, and we’re so odd because it’s serenely disdains to annihilate us.” It’s pretty intense. It I think applies to nuclear weapons.
Which gives me a really great transition to another quote in your book. You write about the experience of facing the sublime in physics, and you quote Rainer Rilke. “For beauty is nothing but the beginning of terror, which we are still just able to endure, and we’re so odd because it’s serenely disdains to annihilate us.” It’s pretty intense. It I think applies to nuclear weapons.
Lisa Randall
At a more mundane, perhaps level, I think it applies… It’s really interesting. One of the things that I found when I wrote these books is some people love certainty. Scientists, many revel in uncertainty. It’s not that you want to be uncertain, you want to solve it, but you’re at this edge where it’s really frustrating because you don’t really want to not know the answer, but of course, if you knew the answer, it would be done.
At a more mundane, perhaps level, I think it applies… It’s really interesting. One of the things that I found when I wrote these books is some people love certainty. Scientists, many revel in uncertainty. It’s not that you want to be uncertain, you want to solve it, but you’re at this edge where it’s really frustrating because you don’t really want to not know the answer, but of course, if you knew the answer, it would be done.
You’re always at this edge where you’re trying to sort things out and there is something scary. You don’t know if there’s going to be a solution, you don’t know if you’re going to find it. It’s not something that can destroy the earth, it’s just something that you do on your individual level. But then of course there are much bigger things like the ones you’re talking about where they could actually be dangerous. The stuff I do, I just want to be clear, I’m doing theoretical physics. Not very dangerous, but sometimes things end up having bigger consequences than you think.
Lex Fridman
Dangerous in a very pragmatic sense. Isn’t it still in part terrifying when you think of just the size of things like the size of dark matter, the power of this thing in terms of its potential gravitational effects, just cosmological objects of a black hole at the center of our galaxy.
Dangerous in a very pragmatic sense. Isn’t it still in part terrifying when you think of just the size of things like the size of dark matter, the power of this thing in terms of its potential gravitational effects, just cosmological objects of a black hole at the center of our galaxy.
Lisa Randall
This might be why I’m a physicist or why I differ from other people because I’m not such a big fan of humanity in some ways. Some ways I am, but the idea that we were everything would be really boring to me. I love the idea that there’s so much more out there, that there’s a bigger universe and there’s lots to discover and that we’re not all there is. Wouldn’t it be disappointing if we were all there is?
This might be why I’m a physicist or why I differ from other people because I’m not such a big fan of humanity in some ways. Some ways I am, but the idea that we were everything would be really boring to me. I love the idea that there’s so much more out there, that there’s a bigger universe and there’s lots to discover and that we’re not all there is. Wouldn’t it be disappointing if we were all there is?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and the full diversity of other stuff is pretty interesting.
Yeah, and the full diversity of other stuff is pretty interesting.
Lisa Randall
We have no idea how much there is. We know what we can observe so far, so the idea that there’s other stuff out there that we yet have to figure out, it’s exciting.
We have no idea how much there is. We know what we can observe so far, so the idea that there’s other stuff out there that we yet have to figure out, it’s exciting.
Lex Fridman
Let me ask you an out there question. If you think of humans on earth, life on earth as this pocket of complexity that emerged and there’s a bunch of conditions that came to be, and there’s Darwinian evolution and however life originated, do you think it’s possible there’s some pockets of complexity of that sort inside dark matter that we can’t see?
Let me ask you an out there question. If you think of humans on earth, life on earth as this pocket of complexity that emerged and there’s a bunch of conditions that came to be, and there’s Darwinian evolution and however life originated, do you think it’s possible there’s some pockets of complexity of that sort inside dark matter that we can’t see?
Lisa Randall
That’s possible.
That’s possible.
Lex Fridman
Chemistry and biology evolving in different ways.
Chemistry and biology evolving in different ways.
Lisa Randall
That’s one of the reasons we suggest… It’s not the reason, but it would be true if there were the type of interactions we’d suggest, it would need more complex ones. We don’t know. I will say that the conditions that give rise to life and complexity, they’re complex, they’re unlikely. It’s not like there’s great odds that would happen, but there’s no reason to know that it doesn’t happen. It’s worth investigating are there other forces that exist in the dark matter sector? That’s exactly-
That’s one of the reasons we suggest… It’s not the reason, but it would be true if there were the type of interactions we’d suggest, it would need more complex ones. We don’t know. I will say that the conditions that give rise to life and complexity, they’re complex, they’re unlikely. It’s not like there’s great odds that would happen, but there’s no reason to know that it doesn’t happen. It’s worth investigating are there other forces that exist in the dark matter sector? That’s exactly-
Lex Fridman
So the dark matter sector doesn’t have all the forces of the standard model of physics?
So the dark matter sector doesn’t have all the forces of the standard model of physics?
Lisa Randall
Right. As far as we know, it doesn’t have any. It might have it at some low level, but it could have its own forces, just like the dark matter might not experience our light. Maybe it has its light that we don’t experience.
Right. As far as we know, it doesn’t have any. It might have it at some low level, but it could have its own forces, just like the dark matter might not experience our light. Maybe it has its light that we don’t experience.
Lex Fridman
So there could be other kinds of forces.
So there could be other kinds of forces.
Lisa Randall
There could be other kinds of forces even within our sector that are too weak for us to have discovered so far or that exist at different scales than we know about. We detect what interacts strongly enough with our detectors to detect. It’s worth asking, and that’s one of the reasons we build big colliders to see are there other forces, other particles that exist say, at higher energies, at shorter distance scales than we’ve explored so far. It’s not just in the dark matter sector. Even in our sector, there could be a whole bunch of stuff we don’t yet know.
There could be other kinds of forces even within our sector that are too weak for us to have discovered so far or that exist at different scales than we know about. We detect what interacts strongly enough with our detectors to detect. It’s worth asking, and that’s one of the reasons we build big colliders to see are there other forces, other particles that exist say, at higher energies, at shorter distance scales than we’ve explored so far. It’s not just in the dark matter sector. Even in our sector, there could be a whole bunch of stuff we don’t yet know.
Particle physics
Lex Fridman
Maybe let’s zoom out and look at the standard model of particle physics. How does dark matter fit into it? First of all, what is it? Can you explain what the standard model is?
Maybe let’s zoom out and look at the standard model of particle physics. How does dark matter fit into it? First of all, what is it? Can you explain what the standard model is?
Lisa Randall
The standard model of particle physics is basically it tells us about nature’s most basic elements and their interactions. It’s the substructure as far as we understand it. If you look at atoms, we know they have nuclei and electrons, nuclei have protons and neutrons in them, protons and neutrons have particles called quarks that are held together by something called the strong force.
The standard model of particle physics is basically it tells us about nature’s most basic elements and their interactions. It’s the substructure as far as we understand it. If you look at atoms, we know they have nuclei and electrons, nuclei have protons and neutrons in them, protons and neutrons have particles called quarks that are held together by something called the strong force.
They interact through the strong force, the strong nuclear force. There’s something called the weak nuclear force and electromagnetism. Basically, all those particles and their interactions describe many, many things we understand. That’s the standard model. We now know about the Higgs boson, which is associated with how elementary particles get their mass. That piece of the puzzle has also been completed.
We also know that there are a weird array of masses of elementary particles. There’s not just the up and down quark, but there are heavier versions of the up and down quark. Charm and strange, top and bottom. There’s not just the electron, there’s a muon and a tau. There are particles called neutrinos, which are under intense study now, which are partnered with the leptons through the weak interactions.
We really do know these basic elements and we know the forces. When we’re doing particle physics experiments, we can usually even ignore gravity except in exceptional cases that we can talk about. Those are the basic elements in their interactions.
Dark matter stands outside that, it’s not interacting through those forces. When we look at the world around us, we don’t usually see the effects of dark matter. It’s because there’s so much of it that we do and it doesn’t have those forces that we know about. The standard model has worked spectacularly well. It’s been tested to a high degree of precision. People are still testing it.
One of the things we do as physicists is we actually want it to break down at some level, we’re looking for the precision measurement or the energy or whatever it will take where the standard model is no longer working. Not that it’s not working approximately, but we’re looking for the deviations. Those deviations are critical because they can tell us what underlies the standard model, which is what we really want to see next.
Lex Fridman
Where can you find the places where the standard model breaks down? What are the places you can see those tiny little deviations?
Where can you find the places where the standard model breaks down? What are the places you can see those tiny little deviations?
Lisa Randall
We don’t know yet, but we know the kinds of things you wouldn’t want to look for. One obvious place to look is at higher energy. We’re looking at the Large Hadron Collider, but we’d love to go beyond that. Higher energy means shorter distances and it means things that we just couldn’t produce before. E=mc², so if you have a heavy particle and you don’t have enough energy to make it, you’ll never see it. That’s one place.
We don’t know yet, but we know the kinds of things you wouldn’t want to look for. One obvious place to look is at higher energy. We’re looking at the Large Hadron Collider, but we’d love to go beyond that. Higher energy means shorter distances and it means things that we just couldn’t produce before. E=mc², so if you have a heavy particle and you don’t have enough energy to make it, you’ll never see it. That’s one place.
The other place is precision measurements. The standard model has been tested exquisitely, so if it’s been tested 1%, you want to look at a 10th of a percent. There are some processes that we know shouldn’t even happen at all in the standard model or happen at very suppressed level, and those are other things that we look for. All of those things could indicate there’s something beyond what we know about, which of course would be very exciting.
Lex Fridman
When you just step back and look at the standard model, the quarks and all the different particles and neutrinos, isn’t it wild how this little system came to be and underpins everything we see?
When you just step back and look at the standard model, the quarks and all the different particles and neutrinos, isn’t it wild how this little system came to be and underpins everything we see?
Lisa Randall
Absolutely. That’s why we’d like to understand it better. We want to know is it part of some bigger sector? Why are these particles… Why do they have the masses they do? Why is the Higgs boson so light compared to the mass that could have had, which we might’ve even expected based on the principles of special relativity and quantum mechanics. That’s a really big question. Why are they what they are?
Absolutely. That’s why we’d like to understand it better. We want to know is it part of some bigger sector? Why are these particles… Why do they have the masses they do? Why is the Higgs boson so light compared to the mass that could have had, which we might’ve even expected based on the principles of special relativity and quantum mechanics. That’s a really big question. Why are they what they are?
Lex Fridman
And they originate, there’s some mechanism that created the whole thing?
And they originate, there’s some mechanism that created the whole thing?
Lisa Randall
That’s one of the things we’re trying to study. Why is it what it is?
That’s one of the things we’re trying to study. Why is it what it is?
Lex Fridman
Even just the mechanism that creates stuff, the way a human being is created from a single cell. It’s like embryogenesis, the whole thing, you build up this thing. All of it, this whole thing comes to be from just like a [inaudible 00:34:47].
Even just the mechanism that creates stuff, the way a human being is created from a single cell. It’s like embryogenesis, the whole thing, you build up this thing. All of it, this whole thing comes to be from just like a [inaudible 00:34:47].
Lisa Randall
Don’t forget it is interacting with the environment.
Don’t forget it is interacting with the environment.
Lex Fridman
For sure. Okay, right, right, right.
For sure. Okay, right, right, right.
Lisa Randall
It’s important.
It’s important.
Lex Fridman
That’s a really good question is how much of it is the environment? Is it just the environment acting on a set of constraints? How much of it is just the information in the DNA or any information? How much is it in the initial conditions of the universe versus some other thing acting on it?
That’s a really good question is how much of it is the environment? Is it just the environment acting on a set of constraints? How much of it is just the information in the DNA or any information? How much is it in the initial conditions of the universe versus some other thing acting on it?
Lisa Randall
These are big questions. These are big questions in pretty much every field. For the universe, we do consider it… It’s everything there is by definition. But people now think about it. Is it one of many universes? Of course it’s a misnomer, but could there be other places where there are self-contained gravitational systems that we don’t even interact with? Those are really important questions, and the only way we’re going to answer them is we go back as far as we can. We try to think theoretically, and we try to think about observational consequences. That’s all we can do.
These are big questions. These are big questions in pretty much every field. For the universe, we do consider it… It’s everything there is by definition. But people now think about it. Is it one of many universes? Of course it’s a misnomer, but could there be other places where there are self-contained gravitational systems that we don’t even interact with? Those are really important questions, and the only way we’re going to answer them is we go back as far as we can. We try to think theoretically, and we try to think about observational consequences. That’s all we can do.
Lex Fridman
One interesting way to explore the standard model is to look at your fun, nuanced disagreement with Carlo Rovelli. When you talked about him writing in his book, “Electrons don’t always exist. They exist when they interact. They materialize in a place when they collide with something else.” You wrote that… I’ll just read the whole thing because it’s interesting.
One interesting way to explore the standard model is to look at your fun, nuanced disagreement with Carlo Rovelli. When you talked about him writing in his book, “Electrons don’t always exist. They exist when they interact. They materialize in a place when they collide with something else.” You wrote that… I’ll just read the whole thing because it’s interesting.
“Stocks may not achieve a precise value until they’re traded, but that doesn’t mean we can’t approximate their worth until they change hands. Similarly, electrons might not have definite properties, but they do exist. It’s true that the electron doesn’t exist as a classical object with definite position until the position is measured. But something was there – which physicists use a wave function to describe.” It’s a fascinating nuanced disagreement. Do electrons always exist or not? Does a tree fall in the forest if nobody’s there to see it?
Lisa Randall
I like to think of the universe as being out there, whether or not… It would be really weird if the only time things came into existence was when I saw them or I measured them.
I like to think of the universe as being out there, whether or not… It would be really weird if the only time things came into existence was when I saw them or I measured them.
Lex Fridman
There’s a lot of weird stuff in the works.
There’s a lot of weird stuff in the works.
Lisa Randall
I could believe that the Middle East doesn’t exist because I’m not there now. That would be kind of ridiculous, I think we would all agree on that. I think there’s only so much that we can attribute to our own powers of seeing. The whole system doesn’t come into being because I’m measuring it. What is weird, and this isn’t even a disagreement about the standard model, this is a disagreement about how you interpret quantum mechanics.
I could believe that the Middle East doesn’t exist because I’m not there now. That would be kind of ridiculous, I think we would all agree on that. I think there’s only so much that we can attribute to our own powers of seeing. The whole system doesn’t come into being because I’m measuring it. What is weird, and this isn’t even a disagreement about the standard model, this is a disagreement about how you interpret quantum mechanics.
I would say that those wave functions are real. One of the things that don’t forget that particle physics does that quantum field theory says is that electrons can be created and destroyed. It’s not that every electron has to be in the universe. That’s what happens at colliders, particles get created and destroyed, but that doesn’t mean that if I have electron in an atom, it’s not there. It’s certainly there, and we know about it. Its charge is there.
Lex Fridman
Physics is a kind of way to see the world. At the bottom, what’s the bottom turtle? Do you have a sense that there’s a bottom reality that we’re trying to approximate with physics?
Physics is a kind of way to see the world. At the bottom, what’s the bottom turtle? Do you have a sense that there’s a bottom reality that we’re trying to approximate with physics?
Lisa Randall
I think we always have in our head maybe that we’d like to find that, but I have to… I might not seem so, but I think I’m more humble than a lot of physicists. I’m not sure that we’re ever going to get to that bottom level, but I do think we’re going to keep penetrating different layers and get further.
I think we always have in our head maybe that we’d like to find that, but I have to… I might not seem so, but I think I’m more humble than a lot of physicists. I’m not sure that we’re ever going to get to that bottom level, but I do think we’re going to keep penetrating different layers and get further.
Lex Fridman
I just wonder how far away we are.
I just wonder how far away we are.
Lisa Randall
We all wonder that. What’s even the measure of how far away we are. One way you can measure it is just by our everyday lives. In terms of our everyday lives, we’ve measured everything. In terms of what underlies it. There’s a lot more to see. Part of it has to do with how far we think we can go. It might be that the nature of reality changes so much that even these terms are different. Maybe the notion of distance itself might break down at some point.
We all wonder that. What’s even the measure of how far away we are. One way you can measure it is just by our everyday lives. In terms of our everyday lives, we’ve measured everything. In terms of what underlies it. There’s a lot more to see. Part of it has to do with how far we think we can go. It might be that the nature of reality changes so much that even these terms are different. Maybe the notion of distance itself might break down at some point.
Lex Fridman
Also to push back on the we’ve measured everything, maybe there’s stuff we haven’t even considered is measurable. For example, consciousness. There might be stuff, just like you said, forces unseen, undetected.
Also to push back on the we’ve measured everything, maybe there’s stuff we haven’t even considered is measurable. For example, consciousness. There might be stuff, just like you said, forces unseen, undetected.
Lisa Randall
It’s an interesting thing, and this is often a confusion that happens. There’s the fundamental stuff underlying it, and then there’s the higher levels, what we’ll call an effective theory at some level. We’re not always working… When I throw a ball, I don’t tell you where every atom is. I tell you there’s a ball.
It’s an interesting thing, and this is often a confusion that happens. There’s the fundamental stuff underlying it, and then there’s the higher levels, what we’ll call an effective theory at some level. We’re not always working… When I throw a ball, I don’t tell you where every atom is. I tell you there’s a ball.
There might be different layers of reality that are built in terms of the matter that we know about in terms of the stuff we know about that. When I say we’ve measured everything, I say that with a grain of salt. I mean we’ve measured everything about the standard model. There’s lots of phenomena that we don’t understand, but often there are complex phenomena that will be given in terms of the fundamental ingredients that we know about.
Lex Fridman
That is an interesting question because yes, there’s phenomena that are at the higher level of abstractions that emerge, but maybe with consciousness, there is far out people that think that consciousness is panpsychus, that there’s going to be almost like a fundamental force of physics. That’s consciousness that permeates all that matter.
That is an interesting question because yes, there’s phenomena that are at the higher level of abstractions that emerge, but maybe with consciousness, there is far out people that think that consciousness is panpsychus, that there’s going to be almost like a fundamental force of physics. That’s consciousness that permeates all that matter.
Lisa Randall
Usually when you have a crazy… Sorry, when you have a far out theory, the thing you do is you test all the possibilities within the constructs that exist. You don’t just jump to the most far out possibility. You can do that, but then to see if it’s true, you either have to find evidence of it or you have to show that it’s not possible without that, and we’re very far from that.
Usually when you have a crazy… Sorry, when you have a far out theory, the thing you do is you test all the possibilities within the constructs that exist. You don’t just jump to the most far out possibility. You can do that, but then to see if it’s true, you either have to find evidence of it or you have to show that it’s not possible without that, and we’re very far from that.
Lex Fridman
I think one of the criticisms of your theory on the dinosaurs was that it requires, if I remember correctly, for dark matter to be weirder than it already is. I think you had a clever response to that. Can you remind…
I think one of the criticisms of your theory on the dinosaurs was that it requires, if I remember correctly, for dark matter to be weirder than it already is. I think you had a clever response to that. Can you remind…
Lisa Randall
I’m not sure I remember what I said then, but we have no idea how weird dark matter is. It’s based on everyone thinking they know what dark matter is. Weirder than it already is, it’s not already anything. We don’t know what it is, so there’s no normalization here.
I’m not sure I remember what I said then, but we have no idea how weird dark matter is. It’s based on everyone thinking they know what dark matter is. Weirder than it already is, it’s not already anything. We don’t know what it is, so there’s no normalization here.
Lex Fridman
Do we know if dark matter varies in density?
Do we know if dark matter varies in density?
Lisa Randall
It just certainly does in the universe, just like… For example, there’s more dark matter in galaxies than there’s between galaxies. It clumps. It’s matter, so it’s distributed like matter. It is matter.
It just certainly does in the universe, just like… For example, there’s more dark matter in galaxies than there’s between galaxies. It clumps. It’s matter, so it’s distributed like matter. It is matter.
Lex Fridman
It does clump, but the full details of how it clumps and the complexity of the clumping…
It does clump, but the full details of how it clumps and the complexity of the clumping…
Lisa Randall
It’s understood pretty well. People do simulations… Where people are always looking for things, including us as particle physics, it’s at small scales, are the deviations on small scales so that indicating other interactions or other processes or interactions with baryons. That is to say normal matter that we don’t understand. But on large scales, we have a pretty good understanding of dark matter distribution.
It’s understood pretty well. People do simulations… Where people are always looking for things, including us as particle physics, it’s at small scales, are the deviations on small scales so that indicating other interactions or other processes or interactions with baryons. That is to say normal matter that we don’t understand. But on large scales, we have a pretty good understanding of dark matter distribution.
Lex Fridman
You were part of a recent debate on can science uncover reality. Let me ask you this question then, what do you think is the limits of science?
You were part of a recent debate on can science uncover reality. Let me ask you this question then, what do you think is the limits of science?
Lisa Randall
I’m smart enough to know that I have no idea. Also it’s not even clear what science means because there’s the science that we do, which is particle physics. We try to find fundamental things and figure out what their effects are. There’s science like biology where at a higher level, the kind of questions you ask are different, the kind of measurements are different.
I’m smart enough to know that I have no idea. Also it’s not even clear what science means because there’s the science that we do, which is particle physics. We try to find fundamental things and figure out what their effects are. There’s science like biology where at a higher level, the kind of questions you ask are different, the kind of measurements are different.
The kind of science that’s going to happen in the more numerical age or even AI, what does it mean to answer a question? Does it mean that we can predict it? Does it mean that we can reproduce it? I think we’re coming up against the definition of what we mean by science as human beings. In terms of the science that we can do, I don’t think we’ll know it until we get there. We’re trying to solve hard problems and we’ve made progress.
If you think of how much science has advanced in the last century or century and a half, it’s incredible. We didn’t even know the universe was expanding at the beginning of the 20th century. We didn’t know about quantum mechanics at the beginning of the century, we didn’t know about special relativity. That’s a lot in a relatively short time, depending on how you think of time. I think it would be premature to say we know limitations.
Lex Fridman
At various points throughout the history, we thought we solved everything or at least various people declared-
At various points throughout the history, we thought we solved everything or at least various people declared-
Lisa Randall
[inaudible 00:43:20] various people. Exactly.
[inaudible 00:43:20] various people. Exactly.
Lex Fridman
Declared that we’ve solved everything. This also a good place to… Maybe could you describe the difference between top-down and bottom-up approaches to theoretical physics that you talked about in the book?
Declared that we’ve solved everything. This also a good place to… Maybe could you describe the difference between top-down and bottom-up approaches to theoretical physics that you talked about in the book?
Lisa Randall
You could try to jump in and say I have a theory that I think is so perfect that I can predict everything from it or at least predict some salient features from it.
You could try to jump in and say I have a theory that I think is so perfect that I can predict everything from it or at least predict some salient features from it.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. That’s top-down.
Mm-hmm. That’s top-down.
Lisa Randall
That would be a top-down. Bottom-up is more like the questions we just asked. Why are masses what they are? We measure things. We want to put them together. Usually a good approach is to combine the two. If you ask a very specific question but combine it with the methods of knowing that there could be a fundamental theory underlying it, sometimes you make progress.
That would be a top-down. Bottom-up is more like the questions we just asked. Why are masses what they are? We measure things. We want to put them together. Usually a good approach is to combine the two. If you ask a very specific question but combine it with the methods of knowing that there could be a fundamental theory underlying it, sometimes you make progress.
The community tends to get segmented or fragmented into people who do one or the other, but there are definitely times… Some of my best collaborations with people who are more top-down than I am, so that we come up with interesting ideas that we wouldn’t have thought of if either one of us was working individually.
Lex Fridman
Would you say the truly big leaps happened top-down? Like Einstein?
Would you say the truly big leaps happened top-down? Like Einstein?
Lisa Randall
Einstein was not a top-down person in the beginning. Special relativity was very much him thinking about… They were thought experiments, but he was very much… The original theory about relativity is something like on the nature of electromagnetism. He was trying to understand how Maxwell’s laws could make sense when they seemed to have different symmetries than what we had thought they were.
Einstein was not a top-down person in the beginning. Special relativity was very much him thinking about… They were thought experiments, but he was very much… The original theory about relativity is something like on the nature of electromagnetism. He was trying to understand how Maxwell’s laws could make sense when they seemed to have different symmetries than what we had thought they were.
He was very much a bottom-up person, and in fact, he resisted top-down for a long time. Then when he tried to do the theory of general relativity or the general theory of relativity, whichever you want to call it, incorporating gravity into the system when you need some feedback, then he was helped by a mathematician who had developed some differential geometry and helped him figure out how to write down that.
After that, he thought top-down was the way to go, but he actually didn’t make that much progress. I think it’s naive to think it was just one or the other. In fact, a lot of people who made real progress were rooted in actual measurements.
Physics vs mathematics
Lex Fridman
Speaking of mathematicians, what do you is the difference, you’ve had a bit of foot in both, between physics and mathematics in the way it helps us understand the world?
Speaking of mathematicians, what do you is the difference, you’ve had a bit of foot in both, between physics and mathematics in the way it helps us understand the world?
Lisa Randall
To be frank, there’s a lot more overlap in physics and math. I think that has been… Maybe not more, but there’s certainly a lot. I think, again, the kinds of questions you’re asking are usually different. Mathematicians like the structure itself, physicists are trying to concentrate on, to some extent, on the consequences for the world. But there is a lot of overlap.
To be frank, there’s a lot more overlap in physics and math. I think that has been… Maybe not more, but there’s certainly a lot. I think, again, the kinds of questions you’re asking are usually different. Mathematicians like the structure itself, physicists are trying to concentrate on, to some extent, on the consequences for the world. But there is a lot of overlap.
Lex Fridman
The string theory is an example. There’s certain theories where there’s a certain mathematical beauty to it.
The string theory is an example. There’s certain theories where there’s a certain mathematical beauty to it.
Lisa Randall
There’s also some really cool ideas that you get in particle physics where you can describe what’s going on and connect it to other ideas. That’s also really beautiful. I think basically insights can be beautiful. They might seem simple, and sometimes they genuinely are, and sometimes they’re built on a whole system that you have to understand before. If you actually saw Einstein’s equations written out in components, if you wouldn’t think it’s so beautiful. If you write in a compact way, it looks nice.
There’s also some really cool ideas that you get in particle physics where you can describe what’s going on and connect it to other ideas. That’s also really beautiful. I think basically insights can be beautiful. They might seem simple, and sometimes they genuinely are, and sometimes they’re built on a whole system that you have to understand before. If you actually saw Einstein’s equations written out in components, if you wouldn’t think it’s so beautiful. If you write in a compact way, it looks nice.
Lex Fridman
What do you think about the successes and the failures of string theory? To what degree do you think it succeeded, to what degrees it not succeeded yet or has failed?
What do you think about the successes and the failures of string theory? To what degree do you think it succeeded, to what degrees it not succeeded yet or has failed?
Lisa Randall
I think to talk about any science in terms of success and failure often misses the point because there’s not some absolute thing. I do think that string theorists were a bit overly ambitious… Not overly ambitious, but a little bit overly arrogant in the beginning, thinking they could solve many problems that they weren’t going to solve.
I think to talk about any science in terms of success and failure often misses the point because there’s not some absolute thing. I do think that string theorists were a bit overly ambitious… Not overly ambitious, but a little bit overly arrogant in the beginning, thinking they could solve many problems that they weren’t going to solve.
That’s not to say the methods and advances in strength theory don’t exist, but they certainly weren’t able to immediately solve all the problems they thought they could solve. It has given us tools, it has given us some insights, but it becomes almost a sociological question of how much it should be one or the other.
I do think that you can get caught up in the problems themselves, and sometimes you can get caught up in the methods and just do other examples. The real physics insights often come from people who are thinking about physics as well as math.
Lex Fridman
Because you mentioned AI, is there hope that AI might be able to help find some interesting insights? Another way to ask this question is how special are humans that we’re able to discover novel insights about the world?
Because you mentioned AI, is there hope that AI might be able to help find some interesting insights? Another way to ask this question is how special are humans that we’re able to discover novel insights about the world?
Lisa Randall
That’s a great question, and it depends on what kind of insights and what we’re going to find that out. Because it’s hard to think about something that doesn’t quite exist yet, I could just think about something, take a step back. It’s a little bit like I’m trying understand four dimensions so you go back to three dimensions. Go to something you can imagine.
That’s a great question, and it depends on what kind of insights and what we’re going to find that out. Because it’s hard to think about something that doesn’t quite exist yet, I could just think about something, take a step back. It’s a little bit like I’m trying understand four dimensions so you go back to three dimensions. Go to something you can imagine.
You can say a lot of the things in a very different level about the internet. You could say has the internet helped do things? It definitely took on a life of its own in some sense, but it’s also something that we’re able to tame. I know that I, myself wouldn’t have been able to write books if the internet didn’t exist because I wouldn’t have had the time to go to the library and look everything up. It helped me enormously.
In some sense, AI could be that. In a very nice world, it could be a tool that helps us go a step further than we would and a lot more efficiently. It’s already done that to some extent. Or it could be like the parts of the internet that we can control that are ruining politics or whatever. There’s certainly a lot of indications that can do that. Then there are even bigger things that people speculate about AI being able to do its own things, but in terms of actually figuring things out, we’re in the early stages.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s several directions here. One is on the theorem prover side, Wolfram Alpha where everything’s much more precise, and we have large language model type of stuff. One of the limitations of those is it seems to come up with convincing looking things, which we don’t know if it’s true or not, and that’s a big problem for physics.
Yeah, there’s several directions here. One is on the theorem prover side, Wolfram Alpha where everything’s much more precise, and we have large language model type of stuff. One of the limitations of those is it seems to come up with convincing looking things, which we don’t know if it’s true or not, and that’s a big problem for physics.
Lisa Randall
Large language models are more or less generalizations of stuff that we have. There’s still breakthroughs in AI waiting to happen, and maybe they are happening and maybe they’ll be good, maybe not, but that’s not quite the same. Maybe in some cases, it’s just pattern recognition that leads to important things, but sometimes it could be something more insightful than that that I can’t even put my finger on.
Large language models are more or less generalizations of stuff that we have. There’s still breakthroughs in AI waiting to happen, and maybe they are happening and maybe they’ll be good, maybe not, but that’s not quite the same. Maybe in some cases, it’s just pattern recognition that leads to important things, but sometimes it could be something more insightful than that that I can’t even put my finger on.
It forces us to… We don’t really understand how smart we are. We don’t understand how we think about things all that well, actually. But one thing is true though, we are a lot more efficient right now than computers and coming up with things, we require a lot less energy to do that. If computers figure out how to do that, then it’s going to be at a totally different ball game.
Here are clearly kinds of connections that we don’t know how we’re making, but we are making them. That’s going to be interesting. I say we’re in early stages, but this is changing very rapidly. Right now, I don’t think that it’s actually discovered new laws of physics, but could it in the future? Maybe it can.
Lex Fridman
It will raise big questions about what is special about humans that we don’t quite appreciate. There could be things that are like that leap of insight that happens, truly novel ideas, that could potentially be very difficult to do.
It will raise big questions about what is special about humans that we don’t quite appreciate. There could be things that are like that leap of insight that happens, truly novel ideas, that could potentially be very difficult to do.
Lisa Randall
There are abstract questions like that. There’s also questions of how is it that we can address to some extent, how will AI be used in the context of the world we live in? Which is based on at least our country’s based on capitalism in a certain political system. How will global politics deal with it? How will our capitalist system deal with it? What will be the things that we focus on doing with it? How much will researchers get control of it to be able to ask different sorts of questions?
There are abstract questions like that. There’s also questions of how is it that we can address to some extent, how will AI be used in the context of the world we live in? Which is based on at least our country’s based on capitalism in a certain political system. How will global politics deal with it? How will our capitalist system deal with it? What will be the things that we focus on doing with it? How much will researchers get control of it to be able to ask different sorts of questions?
While it was starting out, people were doing these kinds of toy problems, but what will it actually be applied to and what will it be optimized to do? There’s a lot of questions out there that it’s really important we start addressing.
Lex Fridman
What to you is the most beautiful unsolved problem in physics and cosmology, which is really exciting if we can unlock the mystery of in the next few decades?
What to you is the most beautiful unsolved problem in physics and cosmology, which is really exciting if we can unlock the mystery of in the next few decades?
Lisa Randall
Is it what’s the most beautiful unsolved problem, or what is the most beautiful unsolved problem I think we can make progress on?
Is it what’s the most beautiful unsolved problem, or what is the most beautiful unsolved problem I think we can make progress on?
Lex Fridman
Oh boy, we make progress on in the next few centuries.
Oh boy, we make progress on in the next few centuries.
Lisa Randall
Most of the big questions have to do with what underlies things, how things started, what’s at the base of it. There’s also just basic questions like that you asked earlier, how far will science take us? How much can we understand? There are questions like how we got here, what underlies it, are there.
Most of the big questions have to do with what underlies things, how things started, what’s at the base of it. There’s also just basic questions like that you asked earlier, how far will science take us? How much can we understand? There are questions like how we got here, what underlies it, are there.
Also, there’s really deep questions like what fraction are we actually seeing? If there are these other forces, if there is another way of seeing the world, are there universes beyond their own? If they’re so totally different, how do we even comprehend them? What would we even think about them? There’s a lot about trying to get beyond… It’s always just getting beyond our limited vision and limited experience and trying to see what underlies it, both at small scales and at large scales.
We just don’t know the answers. I’d like to think that we understand more about dark matter, about dark energy, about are there extra dimensions, things that we actually work on, but there’s probably a lot beyond what we work on that’s yet to be discovered.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, understanding the extra dimensions piece will be really interesting.
Yeah, understanding the extra dimensions piece will be really interesting.
Lisa Randall
Totally. If it is how the universe went from higher dimensions to what we see, are the extra dimensions present everywhere? One of the really interesting pieces of physics we did that I talk about in my first book, Warped Passages, is finding out that there can be a higher dimension, but only locally. Do you think there’s a gravity of a lower dimension? It could be like only locally do we think we live in three dimensions. It could be higher dimensions is different.
Totally. If it is how the universe went from higher dimensions to what we see, are the extra dimensions present everywhere? One of the really interesting pieces of physics we did that I talk about in my first book, Warped Passages, is finding out that there can be a higher dimension, but only locally. Do you think there’s a gravity of a lower dimension? It could be like only locally do we think we live in three dimensions. It could be higher dimensions is different.
That’s not actually the gravity we have, but there’s all sorts of phenomena that might be out there that we don’t know about. All sorts of evolution things, time dependence that we don’t know about. Of course, that’s from the point of view of particle physics, from the point of view of other kinds of physics, we’re just beginning, so who knows?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, if the physics changes throughout is not homogeneous throughout the universe, that’ll be weird.
Yeah, if the physics changes throughout is not homogeneous throughout the universe, that’ll be weird.
Lisa Randall
I mean, for the observable universe, it’s the same. But beyond the observable universe, who knows?
I mean, for the observable universe, it’s the same. But beyond the observable universe, who knows?
Lex Fridman
You’ve had an exceptional career. What advice would you give to young people, maybe high school, college, on how to have a career they can be proud of and a life they can be proud of?
You’ve had an exceptional career. What advice would you give to young people, maybe high school, college, on how to have a career they can be proud of and a life they can be proud of?
Lisa Randall
I think the weird thing about being a scientist or an academic in general is you have to believe really strongly what you do while questioning it all the time. That’s a hard balance to have. Sometimes it helps to collaborate with people, but to really believe that you could have good ideas at the same time, knowing they could all be wrong. That’s a tough tightrope to walk sometimes, but to really test them out.
I think the weird thing about being a scientist or an academic in general is you have to believe really strongly what you do while questioning it all the time. That’s a hard balance to have. Sometimes it helps to collaborate with people, but to really believe that you could have good ideas at the same time, knowing they could all be wrong. That’s a tough tightrope to walk sometimes, but to really test them out.
The other thing is sometimes if you get too far buried, you look out and you think there’s so much out there. Sometimes it’s just good to bring it back home and just think okay, can I have as good idea as the person next to me rather than the greatest physicist who ever lived? Right now, like you said, I think there’s lots of big issues out there, and it’s hard to balance that.
Sometimes it’s hard to forget the role of physics, but I think Wilson said it really well when he said when they were building Fermilab, it was like this won’t defend the country, but it’ll make it worth defending. It’s just the idea that in all this chaos, it’s still important that we still make progress in these things. Sometimes when major world events are happening, it’s easy to forget that. I think those are important too. You don’t want to forget those, but to try to keep that balance because we don’t want to lose what it is that makes humans special.
Lex Fridman
That’s the big picture. Do you also lose yourself in the simple joy of puzzle solving?
That’s the big picture. Do you also lose yourself in the simple joy of puzzle solving?
Lisa Randall
Yeah. We all like solving puzzles. Actually one of the things that drives me in my research is the inconsistencies. When things don’t make sense, it really bugs me and it just will go into different directions to see how could these things fit together.
Yeah. We all like solving puzzles. Actually one of the things that drives me in my research is the inconsistencies. When things don’t make sense, it really bugs me and it just will go into different directions to see how could these things fit together.
Lex Fridman
It bugs you, but that motivates you?
It bugs you, but that motivates you?
Lisa Randall
Yeah, totally.
Yeah, totally.
Lex Fridman
Until it doesn’t. You have to resolve it.
Until it doesn’t. You have to resolve it.
Lisa Randall
I think I have this underlying belief that it should make sense, even though the world comes at you in many ways and tells you nothing should make sense, but if you believe that it makes sense and you look for underlying logic. I think that’s just good advice for everything to try to find why is it the way.
I think I have this underlying belief that it should make sense, even though the world comes at you in many ways and tells you nothing should make sense, but if you believe that it makes sense and you look for underlying logic. I think that’s just good advice for everything to try to find why is it the way.
I talk about effective theory in my second book, Knocking On Heaven’s Door, a lot. It’s rather than ask the big questions, sometimes we just ask the questions about the immediate things that we can measure and like I said, we can sometimes tell one that we’ll fail, but we can have these effective theories. Sometimes I think when we approach these big questions, it’s good to do it from an effective theory point. Why do I find this satisfying? Why is the world we have the way it is?
We think things are beautiful that we live in. I’m not sure if we had different senses or different ways of looking at things, we wouldn’t necessarily find it beautiful. But I have to say, it is fantastic that no matter how many times I see a sunset, I will always find it beautiful. I don’t think I ever see a sunset as say whatever. It’s just always beautiful.
There are things that as humans, clearly resonate with us, but we were maybe evolved that way. But that’s about us. In terms of figuring out the universe, it’s amazing how far we’ve gotten. We have discovered many, many wonderful things, but there’s a lot more out there and I hope we have the opportunity to keep going.
Lex Fridman
With effective theories, one small step at a time, just keep unraveling the mystery.
With effective theories, one small step at a time, just keep unraveling the mystery.
Lisa Randall
Also having in mind the big questions, but doing one small step at a time. Exactly.
Also having in mind the big questions, but doing one small step at a time. Exactly.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, looking out to the stars. You said the sunset. For me, it’s the sunset, the sunrise, and just looking at the stars. It’s wondering what’s all out there and having a lot of hope that humans will figure it out.
Yeah, looking out to the stars. You said the sunset. For me, it’s the sunset, the sunrise, and just looking at the stars. It’s wondering what’s all out there and having a lot of hope that humans will figure it out.
Lisa Randall
Right. I like it.
Right. I like it.
Lex Fridman
Lisa, thank you for being one of the humans in the world for having me here for that are pushing it forward and figuring out this beautiful puzzle of ours. Thank you for talking today. This was amazing.
Lisa, thank you for being one of the humans in the world for having me here for that are pushing it forward and figuring out this beautiful puzzle of ours. Thank you for talking today. This was amazing.
Lisa Randall
Thank you for having me here.
Thank you for having me here.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Lisa Randall. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. Now, let me leave you with some words from Albert Einstein. The important thing is to not stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existence. Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Lisa Randall. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. Now, let me leave you with some words from Albert Einstein. The important thing is to not stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existence. Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.