This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #446 with Ed Barnhart.
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And I think that led to figuring out, “Hey, we could actually grow certain things.” And gardens turned into crops, turned into intensive crops, and then people were allowed to gather in bigger groups and survive in a single area. They didn’t have to roam around anymore and that’s where we get the first sedentary communities, which means they stayed in the same place all year long. For the vast majority of human existence, we’ve been nomadic and we’ve done these wider or tighter nomadic circles depending on the geographic region where they’d know, “Okay, we’ll be in the summer in the mountains because berries and things, and then in the winter we’ll be down here and we’ll hunt,” but they’d move. So once humans figured out how to stay in a place, I think there, that’s the initial trigger to what would become civilization.
And now the thing that seems like madness but might be true is that it could have been as early as 60. A lot of the DNA things are suggesting that the very first migration could have come across as early as 60. And when I was a younger archeologist, it was heresy to go beyond this 12,500. You were a wacko if you said that, but now it’s really very clear that they came over at least by 30,000 and the bridge opened and closed, then open and closed.
Most of those guys have O-blood type and they’re haplogroup D, which is the oldest one that entered the U.S. And what are they doing down there? I do believe they came across the Bering Strait. We have no real evidence to say they came in mass across Oceania. So they made it probably by boat along the coast all the way to South America.
Some of them, Caral is one of the most famous ones just north of Lima, we’ve known about it for a couple of decades now, how old it is. But every time I visit there, it’s like I visited the moon. There’s absolutely nobody there, not for miles. It’s amazing how such a discovery was made, and yet still nobody goes to see it. It’s not easy to get to.
Caral was one of these sites because the coast of Peru has, some of those pyramids that were made by the Moche are full of gold and beautiful ceramics, things that you can sell for big money. But Caral was found a long time ago, but the archeologist was like, “God, no gold, no ceramics. Forget about it. This place is no good. We can’t sell anything here.” And then about the 1970s or ’80s, somebody said, “Hey, no ceramics. Is that older than the invention of ceramics? Shit, we better go take another look at that place.”
I think a lot of the things that are interpreted as baby sacrifices, Coral’s evidence being one of them, I think it’s more about the tragic nature of infant mortality. In the past, it was a lot more common. There were cultures that didn’t even really properly name their kid until they got to five, because chances were they were going to die. And so I think a lot of these babies that we find in these ceremonial contexts that are interpreted as sacrifices, I think they’re putting them in special places because they mourn the death of their kids, and it just happened a lot more frequently then.
Now, that being said, remember we were just talking about Huaca Prieta and this one that’s almost 6000 BC now, is the first one, that one’s a funny case. We just talked about all these lofty goals, but actually I’m pretty sure that Huaca Prieta’s first pyramid was about capping a smelly pile of trash. I think everybody piled up their trash in the middle of town and it stunk. It’s on the coast. It stunk like fish. And somebody said, “If we just bury this thing with dirt, it won’t smell anymore.” And then it was a big mound where people could get up and talk to everybody and then said, “Well, it’s squishy. If we cap it with clay, then it will really not smell.” I really think that the very first pyramids in Peru were about trash management. Talk about deflating, huh?
It used to be archeology that was just the end all, be all. Civilization starts with the invention of agriculture. And we can’t have sedentary communities until people learn how to farm. But that’s been discounted. Peru was a big part of that. That area of Caral, it’s connected to another city on the coast called Aspero. Aspero starts about the same time, but they’re all about fishing. They have no farming. And Caral, who’s upriver from them, is farming, but funny enough, they’re not really farming food. They’re farming cotton and they’re making nets and they’re trading the nets with the people on the coast for the fish. So it’s not as simple as, it’s just agriculture anymore. But it is, I think, still rooted in, how can we feed more people than just our family? How can we together create a food abundance so we’re no longer scared about running out of food?
He also likes to sever people’s heads off and carry them around, but he’s the fanged deity and he’s there. He shows up in Chavín de Juantar, the capital of that Chavín culture, and he keeps showing up through every culture, even thousands of miles away throughout the next two millennium, right up to the Inca. The Inca have a creator deity they call Viracocha, but Viracocha is the fanged deity. When we do see him, by the time you get to Inca, they do this almost Islamic thing where they say you can’t understand the face of Viracocha. So when they do put him in a cosmogram, they’ll make him just a blob, like he’s just unknowable, but he’s at the very top. I think we’re misunderstanding a lot of things that we used to say were deities as just supernatural beings.
If we flip the mirror on Christianity and take a look at it, which of course, Christianity is monotheistic, right? It would be heresy to say otherwise, but who are all these other characters? Who are all these angels and demons and Jesus Christ? I don’t even know who the Holy Spirit is, but he’s some sort of supernatural being. But it’s that monotheistic system has lots of things that have supernatural powers that are not God. That’s where I think the crux of us misunderstanding ancient Andean art is.
He’s got circular eyes, he’s got a fanged mouth. He’s got claws on his hands and feet. He’s a humanoid, but he also has snakes coming off of his head like hair and snakes coming off of his belt. And then not so much in Chavín, but as it goes forward, he starts carting around severed heads, human severed heads. So they’re like, in the old literature, the Moche will call him the decapitator deity, but then they have these other like, “Oh, here’s the crab deity and here’s the fox deity.” But if you look at them, the crab deity is just that guy’s face coming off of a crab, and the fox deity is that guy’s face coming off of a fox.
So I think on that particular instance, I explain it similar to what Zeus did. You know how Zeus was able to turn into whatever animal he wanted to get with the woman he wanted, and he showed up in all sorts of forms, but he was always Zeus. I think that the fanged deity manifests himself through people and animals throughout the art and that there are missing stories of mythology that we don’t have anymore.
But the thing that most cracks me up that shows his softer side is the fanged deity has a little puppy. He has a puppy that’s just dancing around his feet and jumping up on him in various scenes. They see him again and again. Sometimes he’s in these healing sex scenes. In fact, I tracked that puppy from other contexts to these sex scenes where a priest was having sex with somebody in a house and a fanged deity, and there’s a puppy just scratching at the door like, “Hey, you forgot me.” And then finally, one day I found one with the puppy having sex with the woman instead of the fanged deity. I was like, “Oh, he really is very involved in this. What is this weird puppy?”
So when the music starts, that’s bringing those spirits in and people don’t see them unless they’ve imbibed the San Pedro cactus juice, which is this hallucinogen, which is in the Amazon side, it was Ayahuasca. On the coast, it was San Pedro cactus, but that’s what allows you to actually see that other world.
Ayahuasca traditionally, they’d take a blow gun and just shoot it up your nose or up your ass, but a lot of times up your nose and when it shoots up your nose, the first thing that happens is just this gush of snot comes out of you. And there are stone depictions of people uncontrollably snotting on the backside of this temple from 3,000 years ago.
Again, it’s not stone built and it’s been under the forest forever. So it’s very torn up, but it’s there. Brazil is big on cattle farming more than ever now, and a thing that I think is completed now is Brazil and Bolivia partnered together and built a highway all the way across and opened up a whole bunch more land, which has found more of these what we call like geometric earthworks. So there’s more and more evidence of these civilizations. It’s not, it could be there. It’s there for sure.
And when I took a trip into the Amazon, I went from Manaus, up the river, the Black River a couple of days, and went and met some different communities. And I asked them about this black earth, and they were like, “Yeah, that’s why we’re here. Sometimes we move our village, but when we move, we look for the terra preta, and that’s where we’re going to put our village, because that’s a place that all of our gardens work. The other places, they don’t.”
There’s where I disagree with him. I think these were independent civilizations that grew up in their own ways, that they were not seeded by some more advanced civilization from the past, and that they all hold things in common because they have this common ancestry of… In his early books, he suggested it’s Atlantis. I don’t think he suggests that anymore, but he still hangs on to the single advanced, now completely lost civilization. And archeologists, all of our ideas are theories. Very few of them are facts, and we could have the story wrong, but one thing we’re real good at is finding stuff. We find fish scales, so I find it just too big a pill to swallow that there was a civilization that was that technologically advanced and that large that we can’t even find a potsherd from.
Another thing that starts fights, that when nobody even fought, is illness. Illness in the Amazon and all of the ancient Americas wasn’t seen as a biological thing, it was a spiritual thing. So if somebody in your village gets sick, the question is asked, “Well, what spirit is menacing him and who called it out on him?” And then, the rumor starts, “Well, I bet you it was Joe over there in that other community. He’s still pissed off for that time when we stole his daughter, and we ought to go over there and kill Joe, and then he’ll get better.” And so this round of never-ending violence, like Hatfields & McCoys had that thing, and the people of New Guinea also do that. So there are certain areas, mostly wooded areas, now that I think about it, where people just hide out and they attack each other as a cultural institution.
There’s a culture that’s some called the Mokaya, not Maya, but they’re on the Pacific coast, where Guatemala and Mexico connect. It’s called the Soconusco. And those are the first people that are really going to be culturally Maya, and they’re interacting with the culture that has traditionally been seen as Mexico’s mother culture, which is the Olmec. They’re kind of the same thing as we were talking about in South America, where the Maya, the original Maya, there’s not a whole lot to indicate that they have a religion. But the Olmec have this religion they develop, and they start exporting it. And you see the Maya become more and more involved in the religion that’s being created by the Olmec, who are to the north of them, in the swamps of what we call the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
The Olmec are really bringing the religion part, but the other areas are bringing technology, ceramic technology, making hematite mirrors, making tools out of obsidian and other stone types. So you’ve got the Olmec in the middle, where Mexico gets skinny, and it gets swampy down there. That’s called the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. That’s where the Olmec are. Then, you’ve got the Maya to the east of them. Then, you have the Valley of Oaxaca, where the people called the Zapotecs, they’re rising up. And then, you have the Valley of Mexico, which will eventually become the Aztecs, but not for millennia. All those areas are interacting with each other.
There’s five planets we can see visibly. So they started watching, like, “Why are just those seven moving differently than the rest?” And those are the things that they keyed on mathematically. The Sun, of course, was also involved in the agricultural cycle, so that was important in and of itself. But the planets, we can see them coming up with ideas, definitely doing the math, and seeing that there is a repeated cycle, and then coming up with mythology around them, like Venus for them was associated with war, and they had very ritualized times to go to war that had something to do with Venus.
Sometimes, in the classic period Maya, it was the first appearance of Venus as the Morning Star. That was a good time to go to battle with your neighbors. And when it became the post-classic, with Chichén Itzá being the capital of the Yucatan, then it looks like, if you watch Venus day after day, it goes slowly up every day, and then when it hits its highest point as Morning Star in the morning, it goes down to the Earth like three times as fast. All of a sudden, it just shoots down and hits the Earth. And so the people of post-classic Maya civilization saw that as the gods shooting a spear into the Earth, and that was a good time to attack your neighbors. That was like war time, when the spear is going to hit the earth.
That’s how they figured out kind of the Holy Grail of ancient astronomy. How good were they was whether they could see the procession of the equinoxes, the fact that we’re just barely wobbling, and there’s a 26,000-year period where the stars as that backdrop will spin all the way around and come back. It’s 26,000 years. But the Maya we’re able to figure out, “Wait, it’s moving one degree every 72 years,” and did a calculation based on where it should be in the ancient past, and they were using constellations. They’re showing us they know by saying like, “This planet’s in this constellation right now, and 33,000 years ago, it would be in this constellation.”
Everybody in the highlands knows what their birthday is in that calendar, knows what it means about their personality and the kind of jobs that they’re supposed to do. Each one of those days has their own spirit and what’s supposed to happen in those days. The Maya collectively call them the Mom, the Grandmother, Grandfather spirits, and they talk to each one of those days, and they pray to them. There’s now an association of some 8,000 people that are called [inaudible 01:31:33], that are daykeepers who are keeping the days, and they’re also like community psychologists, almost. People come to them and say, “You know, my life is mixed up. What’s wrong here?” “Well, let’s ask the Mom. Okay, well, it looks like you’re not doing this or that, or you know what, you’re an accountant? You’re not supposed to be an accountant. You’re supposed to be a midwife. What are you doing? You’re living your life wrong. You’re a Kibʼ. You need to start being a Kibʼ person.”
And so it should be there’s 1s, there’s 20s, there’s 400s, there’s 8,000s, there’s 160,000s. It goes just like our 10s, 100s, 1,000s, 10,000s, but it’s times 20. So they have days, months of 20 days, and then they have these years that should be, by their math, 400, but it’s only 360. And that throws the whole thing out of whack going further up. Then, they have a 20-year period and a 400- year period. 400 years to their calendar, but by that time, it’s only 396 years in our reckoning. So it’s mysterious that it’s… Why did they tweak it at the year to be only 360 days? That doesn’t follow any astronomy, that’s not the human cycle.
And they have a creation story called the and the Popol Vuh, and the Popol Vuh is clear as day that the third creation ends with the help of these heroes called the Hero Twins, and the fourth creation begins. And so on the Maya monuments, we see them doing the math through the Long Count, and we can calculate it back very exactly. It happened, the fourth creation started on August 11th 3114 BC. And it doesn’t say it’s day one, it says it’s the last day of the 13th baktun of the third creation, which leads us to believe that a creation is only 13 baktuns long.
Above that, there’s the piktun, then there’s the kalabatun, then there’s alawatun, and it goes on and on. And these are like 160,000 years, huge increments of time. Whenever they want to do that, and they talk about a long period of time, they start putting 13s in all of those increments, those higher increments. And I think what they’re saying is they’re making an esoteric statement about the never-ending nature of time. That’s what I think they’re telling us in those texts, that time goes on forever, magically.
One of the weird things is that the Aztecs, who we talked to a lot at contact, they also had the concept of multiple creations before us, but they were real clear to the Spanish that they weren’t all the same time element. Some of them were in the three hundreds of years, some of them were in the seven hundreds of years, but they were not the same time period. So our mathematical logic that if the third creation was 13, this one must be third creation, or also be 13, it’s in direct opposition to what the Aztecs told us about the nature of creations. They’re different time periods.
But it is funny how oftentimes these Maya horoscopes, for lack of a better word, do hit the mark. There was some student who surveyed like 300 people with the app I made and asked them about their Greek sign and their Maya sign, and his conclusion for his term paper was that the Maya one was working way better, which that’s fascinating. At least that’s fun. But no, I think I’m too much of a scientist to believe that. I just don’t have any foundation in science that would allow us to believe that the month in which we were born in a cycle sets our personality and destiny.
The big key is that the Maya still speak that same language. There are millions of Maya people who are speaking a version of Maya. Now there’s where I get confused, that we’ve got a single writing system that is intelligible, we’ve broken the code, so we know that it’s basically the same writing system from the top of the Yucatan into Guatemala and El Salvador. But we have 33 Maya languages today that are mutually unintelligible. And we backwards project the language of what they spoke back then that the glyphs are in to something called Chʼoltiʼ, which is a combination of Chʼortiʼ and Ch’ol, two of those languages.
But it doesn’t work for me at all. If there was one language, maybe two back then, how did it flower into 33 mutually unintelligible languages in just 500 years during acculturation and horrible infectious diseases that killed 90% of the population? How did that happen? So we’re missing something huge here. I think it’s more like Chinese, where Chinese letters, writing can be read in multiple languages and still understood. I don’t know exactly the mechanics of how that would happen, but it just seems impossible that there are more languages, not less languages, in the Maya area after the last 500 years that they’ve been through.
His two key examples were a picture of a dog with a symbol over it and a picture of a turkey with a symbol over it. And the dog, a dog in Yucatec is tzul. So he saw two symbols and he said, “This one’s probably tzul and this one’s ul”. And then the Turkey was kutz, so it would be ku ending in tz. And he showed how, look, this is, this is tzul. Those two things that should be tz are the same symbol. And that began this process of unraveling the syllables that we’re still working on today.
There’s also, the big one is Harappan. For a long time we used to say there were five independent scripts on the planet, and those were Chinese, Cuneiform, which is Mesopotamian, Egyptian, Maya, and then Harappan, which is from Northern India. That’s the only one that we’ve never cracked. And now all the epigraphers, the people, that’s the term, epigraphy is translating these languages, they’re all ganging up on Harappan and want to kick it off the list because we can’t break it. It had a big enough symbol set, but no one’s been able to crack it. And now they’re saying it’s just an elaborate symbol set and doesn’t reflect the spoken word.
They also encoded language in there. They had entire libraries in Cusco where Spanish conquistadors were brought through, and the caretakers of the libraries would just, they’d say, “Pull that one down, read that one to me.” And he’d pull it out and just read a history of something that happened 200 years earlier. So it was definitely writing.
But in the 1570s, one head of the church there had all of the people that could read them called quipucamayocs, gathered up, had them read all of their quipus and transcribe them into Spanish books, and then had the quipus burned and those people murdered.
But then on a much simpler level, there’s llama herders who keep a string in their pocket and they’ve got the knots equaling how many llamas they have, and then they have subcategories of information like, this one’s sick, we’ve lost these ones, this one’s pregnant. So they have these more simple and more mathematical quipus, but they’re using them to affect as a record.
There was the site that I mapped for my dissertation and spent years in the jungle there, Palenque, had a lord’s title named Fire Lord. That was one of the generals of their army. And we could tell that position changed over time. So there was one guy named Chak Suutz’ who was the Fire Lord for the early part of a reign of a king called Ahkal Moʼ Nahb. Then by the time he carves this other panel, there’s another guy in the position of K’ak Ajaw, which was the Fire Lord. And so he had-
But then when Chichen Itza falls, there’s a new city that’s architecture looks a lot like Chichen Itza. It’s called Mayapan. But it has what is called the League of Mayapan. And it has a council of representatives from the communities from all around the Yucatan. And it is basically a democracy. It is a Maya democracy that happens. The individuals from all around the Yucatan are there. Each family has their own council house at Mayapan, though they live back at their place. It’s kind of like a Maya Congress.
So yeah, we have Preclassic is like the origins of civilization. They’re starting to build cities. They’re starting to create their calendar. They’re starting to create these wonderful works of art. And the Classic period, if you look at 10 different textbooks for the Maya, you’ll get 10 different dates that wiggle around in there. But basically that’s the age of kings to me. That’s when these cities decide that they’re going to organize themselves around elite royal families that have this magical blood that can contact their ancestors that are directly in contact with the gods. The Maya never contact their gods directly. They contact their ancestors who are up there who act like liaisons to the gods.
And so the Maya age of kings has these dynasties sprouting up where these people have basically snowed the rest of the people, that they’ve got a special quality of their blood and only their offspring can do the same trick and talk to the gods, where everybody, every Joe Maya can let their blood and burn it and contact their ancestor. But Joe Maya’s dad is just a corn farmer who lives down below and he’s got no influence over the gods. But the rulers, their spirits go down briefly, but then they go up into the heavens and reside where the gods are and act as liaisons. So that’s the validation for this kingship that happens for about 400 years.
I know we say 250 to 900, which is kind of the encompassing edges of it, but it’s interesting that it’s actually specifically the ninth bakʼtun of their history. The ninth bakʼtun begins in like 426, and it ends in like 829. So it’s a 400-year period of time. And before that, there were no kings. And after that, there really aren’t kings. They’re heads of councils. So I call it the age of kings, where everybody’s following the directives of basically a despot. And for a while, that’s great. Cities build up, populations happening. I see it as kind of a cult of personality moment too. Strong, charismatic leaders inspire people to do great things together.
But eventually happens all the time with power, too much power corrupts. All of a sudden there’s this unwieldy huge elite class that has to be treated special by everybody else. And they start saying, “Well, I think we should fight with those guys and you guys should go take these things.” And people eventually get sick of it and they walk away from these cities, and that’s how we get the mysterious Maya collapse where all these cities are just gone.
And it seems like right there around between 800 and 900, a lot of the elites that were on top, most of it was in the rainforests of northern Guatemala, they move. They move in two directions. Some of them move into the highlands of Guatemala, and some of them move up into the Yucatan. The city of Chichen Itza becomes the next big capital in Yucatan. But the word Itza is actually a word describing the people who lived around Lake Peten Itza in northern Guatemala. And all of the Maya are super clear about that, that the Itza came in as immigrants with these new ideas and created Chichen Itza. So the elites who were no longer welcome in their cities just moved and set up shops somewhere else.
I remember really stark evidence in Copán, Honduras. Copán was this beautiful city, lineage of 17 kings. But the last kings and the last elite burials that we dig from the city center, the teeth are the telling part. They get this thing, when you’re growing up and you’re not getting enough food seasonally, it shows up in the enamel of your teeth. It’s called dental hypoplasia. And if somebody’s seasonally starving, it gets these lines in their teeth. And that last generation of Maya before they left Copán, even the rich people are seasonally starving. So there’s a problem there for sure.
But I also think, it’s a weird thing, it was not an empire. It was a group of independent city states like Greece. Some of them were allied, some of them were enemies. There was a huge civil war that settled out about the end of the Classic period. So if it was Europe, the victors would’ve taken over, the losers would’ve beat it and gone wherever they went. But when they abandoned these cities that were independent still, they all left both the guys that won and the guys that lost the war. So it couldn’t be just as simple as spoils go to the victor.
It’s such a wide area. Not everybody was starving like the people in the Copán Valley. So I personally think it was calendrically timed. It is interesting to note that that ninth period, that ninth 400-year period ends right then. And I think a lot of people, I can’t prove it archeologically, but I think a lot of people said we’re coming to the end of a great cycle and we need to renew. We need to change what we’re doing.
When you talk to the Maya today, like at the end of this 2012 thing, if you actually talk to Maya, say, “What happens at the end of a big cycle here?” They say cycles are a time of renewal and transformation, that it is all of our obligation to change our lives at the end of cycles. That change is coming. We can either be part of it or we can get steamrolled by it.
The Aztecs did this neat thing called the New Fire Ceremony every 52 years, which was the biggest their calendar would go. They’d burn down perfectly good temples. And they’d burn down their houses sometimes. And they would just, everybody in society would perform this, what they call the New Fire Ceremony, and they would renew the world. So I think my personal theory is that the Maya decided at the end of the ninth bakʼtun that it was time to renew the world.
But then they show up late game, and they become mercenaries. They just start working for communities in the Valley of Mexico. And this takes place in the 1300s. So about 200 years before Cortez shows up, the Aztecs show up to the Valley of Mexico. And they make themselves this indispensable group of mercenaries. They do the dirty work. All the civilized communities around Lake Texcoco, which is now Mexico City, it’s all dried up, but those guys were too civilized to fight with each other. But they could hire the Aztecs to do their dirty stuff. So the Aztecs did that and really changed the politics in the game of the Valley of Mexico.
So one of these kings that they were working for really liked them and decided, I’m going to make the Aztecs part of our ancestry. I’m going to give them my daughter to marry the head of the Aztecs. And the Aztecs sacrificed her. And that really pissed that guy off. So he took his whole army and ran the Aztecs out for a while. They say they live in this horrible desert section eating lizards.
But then one of their priests say, “We’re going to walk around the lake, and my visions say that where we see an eagle sitting on a cactus with a snake in its mouth is where we will build our capital.” And they see that, but it’s out on an island in the lake. And he said, “Well, I don’t know, that’s the place.” So they build up an island, they go to that island, and then they just start piling up lake muck until they make a whole city there in the middle of the lake. They make an island city. And all of this occurs in about a hundred years. So they show up about 1300. The capital of Tenochtitlan, as they called it, is really established. And from there, they quickly take over the entire valley. They make what they call the Triple Alliance, which is the two other big communities of the lake are now their allies, but they’re not really allies. The Aztecs were brutal. Those guys agreed to shut up and let the Aztecs run the show. And then the Aztecs spread like a wildfire all the way down into the Maya area. Everywhere they go, they rename everybody’s towns and make them pay tribute.
The first thing they’d do is they’d show up with a bunch of merchants. There was a merchant class who were also military. They were really the people who assessed where they were going to attack next. They’d go in with a bunch of Aztec products and say, “We’d like to trade with you.” But all the time, they were assessing their military prowess, what products they had that they could take. And then soon after the pochteca were there would come the military with the reconnaissance.
But then right next to the temple, on either side were the two temples of the warriors. One was the Eagle Warrior clan, the other one was the Jaguar Warrior clan. And they were symbolically in competition with each other, though a unified force. I guess probably an analogy between the Navy and the Air Force. They had a good-natured competition of who was better, but they were the same force. So those were their symbolic warriors.
The same sort of thing happened with the Aztec that there was, Mesoamerica really didn’t have huge standing armies, but the Aztec put this army together and they intimidated people. They didn’t actually have to use it a lot. It was used to great effect in the valley of Mexico and for the rest of Mesoamerica it was mostly the fear factor.
They had this just grotesque, violent bent, but in the same way, they also absolutely loved flower gardens and poetry and music and dance. The same Aztec king who would order the hearts of a thousand people extracted also would stand up at dinner parties to recite his own poetry or the poetry of famous statesmen that had come before him. And they spent money on things like flower gardens. All of the causeways leading to the Aztec capitol had beautiful flower gardens and they had a museum and they had an aquarium and a zoo, and they had an opera and they had a ballet. And these things existed together. There was not, in the Aztec mind, any conflict between witnessing someone’s heart getting ripped out one moment, and in the evening we’d go to the ballet.
But they’d actually tie this paper onto their penis, cut it, and then dance. So the blood splattered, but it was them cutting themselves. It was different than killing a bunch of other people for it. It was a auto-sacrifice, we call it. Still very macabre, but very different than deciding a whole bunch of other people should die. It was a self-sacrifice thing.
So they decided this one poor sucker group, not that far away, called the Tlaxcallans, that they were never going to make peace with them so that they could go close by every year and just have a little symbolic war with the Tlaxcallans and haul them back for a sacrifice. Cortes met those guys and he was like, here are people who hate their guts. I’ll just use these guys. So we say, oh, Cortes took over the Aztec world. It was Cortes and 20,000 super pissed-off, Tlaxcallans.
But Pedro Alvarado is left back in town in charge and they’re doing another one of these huge Aztec buffets and parties to honor them. And it happens. The guy says, “Hey, do you like dinner?” Like, oh yeah, it’s a nice dinner. “Well, it’s humans. You’re eating humans. See, I told you they were good.” And Alvarado just freaks out and he has the guards close the doors and he murders everyone in the party. Women, children, nobody has weapons. He just murders everyone.
And that’s what spazzes the Aztecs out to eventually murder Montezuma who was their captive and then try to murder all of them. And it was all Pedro Alvarado’s fault for freaking out about eating humans.
And if your mayor here agrees, then he can have a town. He can have a house in Cusco. But then the very next month, a big work crew would show up and they’d start building agricultural terraces and storage units. And every month with the agricultural excess, they would have big parties and everybody would eat. So people lived well in the Inca Empire. It was a rough beginning, but everybody who agreed to be part of it immediately had access to a whole bunch of resources and security they never had.
They’d send the Khipukamayuq, the guys who would weave or knot the khipus as accountants, and they would go through and say what everybody did. Okay, you’re a good farmer. You’re going to farm. You are a good weaver. You’re going to weave. All the men here are going to take a turn at being part of the army. And then they sent independent Khipukamayuqs too. Every community had five or six that were not allowed to work with each other, and they all had to independently send their Khipus back to Cusco. And if there were accounting discrepancies that were called to Cusco to figure out who was lying about what.
We’ll go dig up your dog. And they were like, but the kids really want to help you. So their kids came out and this was like their puppy, and it died less than a year ago. When we got to it, one of them just grabbed up a bone and he was like, [inaudible 02:40:59] like little bitty bones. Yay. What a weird attitude. That’s your dead dog there. But they have a different relationship with the dead.
I think they melted them together. And there are weird places when you really look at closely to these stones, which I’ve done a number of times. I’m going back next month to Machu Picchu and especially Cusco. I walk around in the alleys where these 500 to a thousand-year-old walls are still there. And I see things like the crystals in the andesite are almost stitched together along the seams. The andesite around it is melted and the crystals haven’t. And there are other places where there are weird wipes on the wall. It’s just melted. Like somebody took a rag and wiped it while it was soft. Lots of talk about soft stones turning hard too. I haven’t been able to prove it. This is one of these end of my archeological career chapters. I’m either going to prove myself wrong or prove it, but I think they used acids. My dad’s a chemist and he told me a long time ago that there’s no way, there’s no naturally occurring acids. But my current theory, actually, I got the idea initially from the show Breaking Bad.
I don’t know if you ever saw that show, but there’s a point in which they’re trying to dissolve a body and they’re using hydrofluoric acid and it goes right through the ceiling. That hydrofluoric acid is so fascinating. It won’t go through plastic, and you can also bring it in inert parts and then combine it. The Inca made tons of jewelry out of fluorite. Fluorite is big in the Andes, and they also mined a lot of things for gold and silver. And the byproduct of that mining is sulfuric acid.
You put sulfuric acid and fluorite together and it’s hydrofluoric acid, and that will burn through andesite or anything. And if you learned how to do it judiciously and you didn’t care whether servants lost an arm or two, then you could actually use them to fuse these together. And I think they’re fused together. I asked the city of Cusco if I could take some core samples, and they said, go away, gringo. Don’t touch our walls. So actually this next time I’m going to go try to talk to the more Quechua authorities in a place called Ollantaytambo and maybe I can convince them, but right now, they just think I’m a weird-ass gringo who wants to put holes in their walls.
So we’ve got these two clusters. The very first major community in North America is in the most unlikely place. It’s in Northern Louisiana. People think I’m crazy when I say this, but there is a pyramid in Northern Louisiana, a big one at a site called Poverty Point that is 3,500 years old. So it’s the same age as the pyramids in Egypt, and it is a giant thing just poking out of the bayous of Louisiana. And people don’t believe me when I say it, but it’s there.
But in their full living form, they did have cores of dirt, but then they also had kind of clay caps. So they had terraces. They had whole complexes of buildings up on top. There were kings that lived up there. There’s the biggest of the Mississippian cities is called Cahokia, and it’s right outside of St. Louis.
And it was huge. It had a population of 20,000 people and pyramids all over the place, a huge palisade wall around it. It was absolutely gigantic, a thriving metropolis. And we in America have kind of a collective amnesia. We never hear about these massive civilizations. Cahokia was the big first city, but then it spread from the Mississippi all the way to the Atlantic. There were hundreds and hundreds of these big cities that had five to 10,000 people each.
I’m not talking about just archeology. We find him in archeology now. But Hernando de Soto landed in Florida and went for three years from, he went up into the Carolinas and over down into Alabama and Louisiana, and he’s the first one to see the Mississippi up there. But for three years he went through city after city after city, unfortunately decimating them, eating all their corn, giving them diseases. But the documentation’s clearly there. He met collectively, millions of people in a very sophisticated and uniform civilization.
But the numbers, it’s a shameful part of history, and it wasn’t something that Europe perpetrated on them. Medical science at that time was still the four humors theory, that people were made of yellow bile, black bile, blood, and phlegm. And we did things like, well, you’ve got to bleed him. He’ll feel better then. So we had no idea what an infectious disease was, but the reality was that this horde of diseases hit everyone. And the numbers are now saying in the first 50 years that 90% of everybody was dead, and that the number of people has increased as well as far as our estimates. We’re thinking it’s somewhere around 150 million people and 90% of them died. And with them, all their knowledge. Just, I mean, imagine the moment where who dies when things get bad? It’s the young and the old. So all the knowledge keepers die suddenly.
The children die. This next generation that’s half taught and now completely demoralized thinking that this is a spiritual attack, that their gods hate them, that the only way out of it is to accept this new Christianity. But they don’t want to have to bring kids into this world where everybody’s dying. And even if they do, they can’t teach them what the old people were going to teach them because the old people are gone and didn’t finish the transmission. So in a single terrible moment in human history, the generation loses all their knowledge. So a lot of the things these people knew just blipped out.
They attacked the Viking settlement every day and did not give them an inch until they decided it was just worthless and they left it. The Vikings attacked Ireland, and they just found a bunch of monasteries full of gold with a bunch of guys going, “We’re men of God, we don’t fight.” And the Vikings were like, “This is great. That’s great. This will be easy, then. We’ll just loot all these Easter eggs.” But the Native Americans in Canada were not having it. They kicked their ass. In fact, Leif Erickson’s brother Thor died there. The natives killed him. He was supposed to be in charge of expanding the settlement, but they just killed him.
In fact, there was a really poignant story I read of a Spanish priest in the Amazon, in the Brazilian northern part of the Amazon where he made this utopian community and he was bringing people in that were getting sick, and he wrote, “I’m baptizing everyone. I have baptized 10,000 people a day, and yet God’s still killing them. Why is he doing this to them? They’re doing everything that I ask them to do. They are submitting to the will of God.” But this guy doesn’t realize that the same bowl of holy water that he’s baptizing them in, he’s just wiping the disease on everybody’s faces. He’s accelerating it when he doesn’t even realize. He thinks he’s saving them, but he’s actually killing them. That’s a tragedy. That’s not just like spoils go to the victor stuff. That’s just straight up tragedy.
Statistically speaking, the universe is way too big. We can’t be the only sentient beings. There’s got to be somebody else out there. Whether they care about us, that’s a question. I’ve been on Ancient Aliens a number of times. I show up and I’m an educator. I mean, refusing to be part of the conversation is an immediate fail in my book. But there was one time where they asked me at the end, “Do you have anything else do you want to say?” And I said, “Well, y’all’s premise is that aliens came down a long time ago and they gave humanity these wonderful gifts of science and medicine, engineering, all these things. Today we also have a lot of stories of the aliens coming down, but now all they’re doing is mutilating cows and sodomizing rednecks.” Like whatever we did, we super pissed them off apparently.”
I think we’re wasting our time thinking that we can reverse this. We’re delusional. I’m all for electric cars and being good stewards of the environment, but we are wasting our time not technologically adapting to what’s about to happen. We’re spending too much time pretending, the average American thinks if we all just drive electric cars, we’ll be okay. That’s bullshit. That’s not going to happen. We need to start making technologies that desalinize water, a host of things that we need to use our technological capacity to accept it and adapt, instead of Pollyanna thinking we can make it go away.
What I’m really trying to do with this too, it’s specifically the Americas. I want to be part of the reawakening that there were these great civilizations here, especially North America. I think that we have a group amnesia that there was no great civilizations here before Europe showed up. That’s simply not true. I think it should be part of our history books. In fact, I have a program called Before the Americas that would introduce as part of a American history, the part before European contact. And I think that kids in the K through 12 level should grow up not being told this fallacy that no one was here before we showed up in 1492. And one of these days I’m going to find a funder to help us put together Before the Americas and we’re going to make it part of the curriculum for every kid in the U.S. to know the full history of this country.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:39 – Lost civilizations
- 8:43 – Hunter-gatherers
- 12:16 – First humans in the Americas
- 22:07 – South America
- 27:36 – Pyramids
- 34:40 – Religion
- 47:44 – Shamanism
- 49:41 – Ayahuasca
- 55:54 – Lost City of Z
- 1:00:48 – Graham Hancock
- 1:07:51 – Uncontacted tribes
- 1:13:51 – Maya civilization
- 1:29:40 – Mayan calendar
- 1:44:57 – Flood myths
- 2:13:25 – Aztecs
- 2:30:52 – Inca Empire
- 2:48:52 – Early humans in North America
- 2:54:50 – Columbus
- 2:59:26 – Vikings
- 3:03:35 – Aliens
- 3:08:02 – Earth in 10,000 years
- 3:24:12 – Hope for the future
Introduction
Ed Barnhart
For the vast majority of human existence, we’ve been nomadic and we’ve done these wider or tighter nomadic circles, depending on the geographic region, but they’d move. So once humans figured out how to stay in a place, that’s the initial trigger to what would become civilization.
For the vast majority of human existence, we’ve been nomadic and we’ve done these wider or tighter nomadic circles, depending on the geographic region, but they’d move. So once humans figured out how to stay in a place, that’s the initial trigger to what would become civilization.
Lex Fridman
I think you said beauty and blood went hand in hand for the Aztec.
I think you said beauty and blood went hand in hand for the Aztec.
Ed Barnhart
What I meant by that is they were absolutely comfortable with human sacrifice and ripping people’s hearts out. They had this just grotesque, violent bend, but in the same way, they also absolutely loved flower gardens and poetry and music and dance. The same Aztec king who would order the hearts of 1,000 people extracted also would stand up at dinner parties to recite his own poetry. But they were really just surgical about it. They’d use a thick obsidian knife where they could just break the ribs right along the sternum and then push the sternum down, pull up, and just [inaudible 00:01:11].
What I meant by that is they were absolutely comfortable with human sacrifice and ripping people’s hearts out. They had this just grotesque, violent bend, but in the same way, they also absolutely loved flower gardens and poetry and music and dance. The same Aztec king who would order the hearts of 1,000 people extracted also would stand up at dinner parties to recite his own poetry. But they were really just surgical about it. They’d use a thick obsidian knife where they could just break the ribs right along the sternum and then push the sternum down, pull up, and just [inaudible 00:01:11].
Lex Fridman
While the person was alive?
While the person was alive?
Ed Barnhart
Yep, while the person was alive.
Yep, while the person was alive.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Ed Barnhart, an archeologist specializing in ancient civilizations of South America, Mesoamerica, and North America. This is the Lex Friedman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Ed Barnhart.
The following is a conversation with Ed Barnhart, an archeologist specializing in ancient civilizations of South America, Mesoamerica, and North America. This is the Lex Friedman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Ed Barnhart.
Lost civilizations
Lex Fridman
Do you think there are lost civilizations in the history of humans on earth which we don’t know anything about?
Do you think there are lost civilizations in the history of humans on earth which we don’t know anything about?
Ed Barnhart
Yes, I do. And in fact, we have found some civilizations that we had no idea about just in my lifetime. I mean, we’ve got Gobekli Tepe and we’ve got the stuff that’s going on in the Amazon, and there’s some other less startling things that we had no idea existed and push our dates back and gave us whole new civilizations we had no idea about. So yeah, it’s happened and I think it’ll happen again.
Yes, I do. And in fact, we have found some civilizations that we had no idea about just in my lifetime. I mean, we’ve got Gobekli Tepe and we’ve got the stuff that’s going on in the Amazon, and there’s some other less startling things that we had no idea existed and push our dates back and gave us whole new civilizations we had no idea about. So yeah, it’s happened and I think it’ll happen again.
Lex Fridman
Do you think there’s a loss civilization in the Amazon that the Amazon jungle has eaten up or is hiding the evidence of?
Do you think there’s a loss civilization in the Amazon that the Amazon jungle has eaten up or is hiding the evidence of?
Ed Barnhart
Yes, I do. And we’re beginning to find it. There are these huge, what we call geoglyphs, these mound groups that are in geometric patterns. I think that the average Joe, when they hear the word civilization, they think of something that looks like Rome. And I don’t think we’re ever going to find anything that looks like Rome in the Amazon. I think a lot of things there, I mean, wherever you are on the planet, you use your natural resources. And in the Amazon, there’s not a whole lot of stone. What stone is there is deep, deep, deep. So a lot of their things were built out of dirt and trees and feathers and textiles.
Yes, I do. And we’re beginning to find it. There are these huge, what we call geoglyphs, these mound groups that are in geometric patterns. I think that the average Joe, when they hear the word civilization, they think of something that looks like Rome. And I don’t think we’re ever going to find anything that looks like Rome in the Amazon. I think a lot of things there, I mean, wherever you are on the planet, you use your natural resources. And in the Amazon, there’s not a whole lot of stone. What stone is there is deep, deep, deep. So a lot of their things were built out of dirt and trees and feathers and textiles.
Lex Fridman
But is it possible that all that land that’s not covered by trees is actually hiding stone, for example, some architecture, some things that are just very difficult to find for archeologists.
But is it possible that all that land that’s not covered by trees is actually hiding stone, for example, some architecture, some things that are just very difficult to find for archeologists.
Ed Barnhart
I think at the base of the Andes where the Amazon connects to the Andes, there’s a lot of potential there because that’s where the stone actually starts poking up. When you get down into the basin, stone is meters and meters under the ground except for a stray cliff here and there where the river dug deep. And even then only in the dry season, because that river rises over 100 feet every year.
I think at the base of the Andes where the Amazon connects to the Andes, there’s a lot of potential there because that’s where the stone actually starts poking up. When you get down into the basin, stone is meters and meters under the ground except for a stray cliff here and there where the river dug deep. And even then only in the dry season, because that river rises over 100 feet every year.
Lex Fridman
Well, that’s one of the things, having visited that area, just interacting with waterfalls and seeing the water, I was humbled by the power of water to shape landscapes and probably erase history in the context that we’re talking about of civilizations. Water can just make everything disappear over a period of centuries and millennia, and so if there’s something existed a very long time ago, thousands of years ago, it’s very possible it was just eaten up by nature.
Well, that’s one of the things, having visited that area, just interacting with waterfalls and seeing the water, I was humbled by the power of water to shape landscapes and probably erase history in the context that we’re talking about of civilizations. Water can just make everything disappear over a period of centuries and millennia, and so if there’s something existed a very long time ago, thousands of years ago, it’s very possible it was just eaten up by nature.
Ed Barnhart
Absolutely. In fact, in my opinion, that’s almost a certainty in a lot of places. The Grand Canyon was dug by water. There’s this wimpy little river in it right now, and you can’t possibly imagine that it dug that, but it did. The power of nature and geology is really magical. And when it comes to ancient civilizations that could be from a long time ago, there’s probably a lot that are just under the ocean, and just the wave action have destroyed them and what they haven’t destroyed buried deep.
Absolutely. In fact, in my opinion, that’s almost a certainty in a lot of places. The Grand Canyon was dug by water. There’s this wimpy little river in it right now, and you can’t possibly imagine that it dug that, but it did. The power of nature and geology is really magical. And when it comes to ancient civilizations that could be from a long time ago, there’s probably a lot that are just under the ocean, and just the wave action have destroyed them and what they haven’t destroyed buried deep.
Lex Fridman
Under the ocean. So you think Atlantis ever existed?
Under the ocean. So you think Atlantis ever existed?
Ed Barnhart
I don’t think that Atlantis existed. I do think it was one of Plato’s many parables talking about putting it in an interesting story as a teaching device in his school. If one did exist or a shadow of it, my money would be on Akrotiri. Akrotiri is what’s left of a big city that was on the island of Santorini, and when their volcano blew up, it blew up most of the city and shot chunks of it so vast that 70 miles away in Crete there are chunks of Santorini in their cliff. So it blasted what was ever there. But what’s left on the side of the crater Akrotiri is strangely advanced for its age. And so if there’s anything that’s a model for Atlantis, as Plato explained it, it’s Akrotiri.
I don’t think that Atlantis existed. I do think it was one of Plato’s many parables talking about putting it in an interesting story as a teaching device in his school. If one did exist or a shadow of it, my money would be on Akrotiri. Akrotiri is what’s left of a big city that was on the island of Santorini, and when their volcano blew up, it blew up most of the city and shot chunks of it so vast that 70 miles away in Crete there are chunks of Santorini in their cliff. So it blasted what was ever there. But what’s left on the side of the crater Akrotiri is strangely advanced for its age. And so if there’s anything that’s a model for Atlantis, as Plato explained it, it’s Akrotiri.
Lex Fridman
Akrotiri, the ancient Greek city, it says, “The settlement was destroyed in the Theran eruption sometime in the 16th century BCE and buried in volcanic ash, which preserved the remains of the frescoes and many objects and artworks.” So we don’t know how advanced that civilization was.
Akrotiri, the ancient Greek city, it says, “The settlement was destroyed in the Theran eruption sometime in the 16th century BCE and buried in volcanic ash, which preserved the remains of the frescoes and many objects and artworks.” So we don’t know how advanced that civilization was.
Ed Barnhart
No, but we can walk around the ruins and see that it’s got streets, it’s got plumbing, it’s got little sconces for torches at night. It was a vibrant city with a lot of, especially in terms of hydraulic engineering, it’s very advanced for being 3,500 years old.
No, but we can walk around the ruins and see that it’s got streets, it’s got plumbing, it’s got little sconces for torches at night. It was a vibrant city with a lot of, especially in terms of hydraulic engineering, it’s very advanced for being 3,500 years old.
Lex Fridman
So if you check it out, here’s an image of the excavation. What a project.
So if you check it out, here’s an image of the excavation. What a project.
Ed Barnhart
It’s an amazing place and you can tell that it’s just part of it because it’s pretty close to where the crater begins. So the city itself was probably much larger.
It’s an amazing place and you can tell that it’s just part of it because it’s pretty close to where the crater begins. So the city itself was probably much larger.
Lex Fridman
So in this case, there’s a lot of evidence, but like we said, there could be civilizations that there is very little evidence of because of the natural environment that destroys all the evidence.
So in this case, there’s a lot of evidence, but like we said, there could be civilizations that there is very little evidence of because of the natural environment that destroys all the evidence.
Ed Barnhart
Right. And I think Akrotiri’s actually a great example of that because here we have the side that did preserve, that looks amazing, but we know there was more of the city that was completely obliterated. It was shot. Chunks of that city are probably in the walls of Crete 70 miles away, and Plato says that it sunk. It was on an island and it sunk. Well, that’s exactly what happened to Akrotiri.
Right. And I think Akrotiri’s actually a great example of that because here we have the side that did preserve, that looks amazing, but we know there was more of the city that was completely obliterated. It was shot. Chunks of that city are probably in the walls of Crete 70 miles away, and Plato says that it sunk. It was on an island and it sunk. Well, that’s exactly what happened to Akrotiri.
Lex Fridman
Do you think this is what Plato was referring to?
Do you think this is what Plato was referring to?
Ed Barnhart
If it does exist, at least the model of it, I think this is probably what he was talking about.
If it does exist, at least the model of it, I think this is probably what he was talking about.
Lex Fridman
And there could be other civilizations of which Plato has never written that we have no record of?
And there could be other civilizations of which Plato has never written that we have no record of?
Ed Barnhart
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
And it’s humbling to think that entire civilizations with all the dreams, the hope, the technological innovation, the wars, the conflicts, the political tensions, all of that, the social interactions, the hierarchies, all of that, the art can be just destroyed like that and forgotten, completely lost to ancient history.
And it’s humbling to think that entire civilizations with all the dreams, the hope, the technological innovation, the wars, the conflicts, the political tensions, all of that, the social interactions, the hierarchies, all of that, the art can be just destroyed like that and forgotten, completely lost to ancient history.
Ed Barnhart
I reflect upon that often as an archeologist. I think about this great country that I live in and love and all the things we’ve achieved, but we’re a baby historically speaking. We’ve been around 200 years. Heck, a lot of the cities I study in Central and South America, they had a run of 800, 1,000 years, and now they’re ruins. But we’re barely getting started in terms of historical civilizations.
I reflect upon that often as an archeologist. I think about this great country that I live in and love and all the things we’ve achieved, but we’re a baby historically speaking. We’ve been around 200 years. Heck, a lot of the cities I study in Central and South America, they had a run of 800, 1,000 years, and now they’re ruins. But we’re barely getting started in terms of historical civilizations.
Hunter-gatherers
Lex Fridman
So humans, homo sapiens evolved, but they didn’t start civilizations right away. There was a long period of time when they did not form these complex societies. So how do we, let’s say, 300,000 years ago in Africa, actually go from there to creating civilizations?
So humans, homo sapiens evolved, but they didn’t start civilizations right away. There was a long period of time when they did not form these complex societies. So how do we, let’s say, 300,000 years ago in Africa, actually go from there to creating civilizations?
Ed Barnhart
I think that a lot of human evolution had to do with the pressures that their environment put upon them. And a lot of things start changing right around 12,000 years ago, and that’s when our last ice age really ended. I think there was a whole lot of things that just pressured them into, especially, finding new ways of subsistence. Here in the Americas, a huge thing that happened was all the megafauna went away. When the climate changed enough, the mammoths died out and the bison died out, and they had to come up with different ways of doing things. We were hunters and gatherers, and we had things we got from hunting, and we got things we got from gathering. And in the Americas, when the things that they were used to hunting went away and they had to make do with rabbits, the gathering started to be a much more important thing.
I think that a lot of human evolution had to do with the pressures that their environment put upon them. And a lot of things start changing right around 12,000 years ago, and that’s when our last ice age really ended. I think there was a whole lot of things that just pressured them into, especially, finding new ways of subsistence. Here in the Americas, a huge thing that happened was all the megafauna went away. When the climate changed enough, the mammoths died out and the bison died out, and they had to come up with different ways of doing things. We were hunters and gatherers, and we had things we got from hunting, and we got things we got from gathering. And in the Americas, when the things that they were used to hunting went away and they had to make do with rabbits, the gathering started to be a much more important thing.
And I think that led to figuring out, “Hey, we could actually grow certain things.” And gardens turned into crops, turned into intensive crops, and then people were allowed to gather in bigger groups and survive in a single area. They didn’t have to roam around anymore and that’s where we get the first sedentary communities, which means they stayed in the same place all year long. For the vast majority of human existence, we’ve been nomadic and we’ve done these wider or tighter nomadic circles depending on the geographic region where they’d know, “Okay, we’ll be in the summer in the mountains because berries and things, and then in the winter we’ll be down here and we’ll hunt,” but they’d move. So once humans figured out how to stay in a place, I think there, that’s the initial trigger to what would become civilization.
Lex Fridman
There’s a lot of questions I want to ask here. What do you think is the motivation for societies? Is it the carrot or the stick? So you said, is it when resources run out, when the old way of life is no longer feeding everybody, then you have to figure stuff out? Or is it more the carrot of there’s always this human spirit that wants to explore, that wants to maybe impress the rest of the village or something like this with the new discovery they made in venturing out and coming out with different ideas or technological innovation, let’s call it?
There’s a lot of questions I want to ask here. What do you think is the motivation for societies? Is it the carrot or the stick? So you said, is it when resources run out, when the old way of life is no longer feeding everybody, then you have to figure stuff out? Or is it more the carrot of there’s always this human spirit that wants to explore, that wants to maybe impress the rest of the village or something like this with the new discovery they made in venturing out and coming out with different ideas or technological innovation, let’s call it?
Ed Barnhart
Well, I have an explorer’s heart, so I’m biased. I do think that we have an innate desire to see what’s on the horizon and to impress other people with our achievements, things like that. We’re social beings. That’s really the edge that humans have, is our ability to work together. So I think that it’s much more the carrot than the stick. When things get ugly, the stick comes out, but usually the carrot does the job.
Well, I have an explorer’s heart, so I’m biased. I do think that we have an innate desire to see what’s on the horizon and to impress other people with our achievements, things like that. We’re social beings. That’s really the edge that humans have, is our ability to work together. So I think that it’s much more the carrot than the stick. When things get ugly, the stick comes out, but usually the carrot does the job.
First humans in the Americas
Lex Fridman
The really interesting story is how the first people came to the Americas. To me, that’s pretty gangster, to go from Asia all the way potentially during the ice Age or maybe at the end of the ice age or during that whole period not knowing what the world looks like going into the unknown. Can you talk to that process? How did the first people come to the Americas?
The really interesting story is how the first people came to the Americas. To me, that’s pretty gangster, to go from Asia all the way potentially during the ice Age or maybe at the end of the ice age or during that whole period not knowing what the world looks like going into the unknown. Can you talk to that process? How did the first people come to the Americas?
Ed Barnhart
Well, first off, I agree with you, that was pretty gangster. That’s a hard place to live. I listened to some of your podcasts, that guy, Jordan Jonas, he cut the mustard, but I wouldn’t have made it crossing there.
Well, first off, I agree with you, that was pretty gangster. That’s a hard place to live. I listened to some of your podcasts, that guy, Jordan Jonas, he cut the mustard, but I wouldn’t have made it crossing there.
Lex Fridman
Well, there you go. The fact that those guys exist, that somebody like Jordan Jonas exists, people that survive and thrive in these harsh conditions, that’s an indication that it’s possible. So when do you think and how did the first people come?
Well, there you go. The fact that those guys exist, that somebody like Jordan Jonas exists, people that survive and thrive in these harsh conditions, that’s an indication that it’s possible. So when do you think and how did the first people come?
Ed Barnhart
The traditional theories are still somewhat valid, or at least on the table, that when that land bridge occurred, that nomadic hunters just followed the game like they always had and the game went across there because there was no barrier, and they followed them across. The thing that has changed is how early that happened. DNA has been a total game changer for archeology. We get all these evolutionary tracks that we could never see before. When I was a young archeologist, I would’ve never dreamed we’d have the information we have now and that information, a lot of it’s coming out of Texas A&M. We see the traditional 12,500 years ago that there was a migration, but now we’re seeing one that’s almost certainly happening closer to 30,000 years ago.
The traditional theories are still somewhat valid, or at least on the table, that when that land bridge occurred, that nomadic hunters just followed the game like they always had and the game went across there because there was no barrier, and they followed them across. The thing that has changed is how early that happened. DNA has been a total game changer for archeology. We get all these evolutionary tracks that we could never see before. When I was a young archeologist, I would’ve never dreamed we’d have the information we have now and that information, a lot of it’s coming out of Texas A&M. We see the traditional 12,500 years ago that there was a migration, but now we’re seeing one that’s almost certainly happening closer to 30,000 years ago.
And now the thing that seems like madness but might be true is that it could have been as early as 60. A lot of the DNA things are suggesting that the very first migration could have come across as early as 60. And when I was a younger archeologist, it was heresy to go beyond this 12,500. You were a wacko if you said that, but now it’s really very clear that they came over at least by 30,000 and the bridge opened and closed, then open and closed.
Lex Fridman
That’s during the Ice Age?
That’s during the Ice Age?
Ed Barnhart
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
I mean, that’s crazy, right? That is crazy.
I mean, that’s crazy, right? That is crazy.
Ed Barnhart
Yeah. I mean, they didn’t roll in and immediately make New York, but there were people. And there were definitely not people here before that, which is fascinating. When the bridge closed, DNA mutated, and so we have specific kinds of haplogroups that are here in the Americas that don’t exist otherwise, and that same haplogroup game has been showing us more and more that people came across Siberia. It’s not Africa. It’s not Western Europe. Those are still, they’ve become fringe theories, but they’re not totally eradicated. DNA is a developing science as well, and I think we all need to keep that in mind, that it’s not like they just cracked the code and now we know all the answers. And sometimes, like in any science, a breakthrough puts us two steps backwards, not forwards. So I think we don’t need to have too much faith in the models that are now being created through DNA, but they are pointing in the direction of everybody came across from Siberia, that all Native American people are of Asiatic descent.
Yeah. I mean, they didn’t roll in and immediately make New York, but there were people. And there were definitely not people here before that, which is fascinating. When the bridge closed, DNA mutated, and so we have specific kinds of haplogroups that are here in the Americas that don’t exist otherwise, and that same haplogroup game has been showing us more and more that people came across Siberia. It’s not Africa. It’s not Western Europe. Those are still, they’ve become fringe theories, but they’re not totally eradicated. DNA is a developing science as well, and I think we all need to keep that in mind, that it’s not like they just cracked the code and now we know all the answers. And sometimes, like in any science, a breakthrough puts us two steps backwards, not forwards. So I think we don’t need to have too much faith in the models that are now being created through DNA, but they are pointing in the direction of everybody came across from Siberia, that all Native American people are of Asiatic descent.
Lex Fridman
Do you think it was a gradual process? If it’s like 30,000 to 60,000 years ago, was it just gradual movement of these nomadic tribes as they follow the animals? Or was it like one explorer that pushed the tribe to just go, go, go, go, and go maybe across 100 years travel all the way across maybe into North America, where Canada is now, and then big leaps in movement versus gradual movement?
Do you think it was a gradual process? If it’s like 30,000 to 60,000 years ago, was it just gradual movement of these nomadic tribes as they follow the animals? Or was it like one explorer that pushed the tribe to just go, go, go, go, and go maybe across 100 years travel all the way across maybe into North America, where Canada is now, and then big leaps in movement versus gradual movement?
Ed Barnhart
I think it was big leaps. Now, this is just mostly guess, I’ll admit, but I think that much in the way that a lot of our evolutionary models talk about punctuated equilibrium, that there are big moments of change and then it settles out into a more slow and steady pattern, and then something big will happen again. I do think that the early people went as far as they could go, and there were certain colonies that just got isolated for thousands of years. One of the fascinating things that DNA is showing us, which actually blood types were showing us way before that, is that the oldest people in the Americas are in South America, the ones that got separated early and didn’t mix their DNA, like the people in the Amazon.
I think it was big leaps. Now, this is just mostly guess, I’ll admit, but I think that much in the way that a lot of our evolutionary models talk about punctuated equilibrium, that there are big moments of change and then it settles out into a more slow and steady pattern, and then something big will happen again. I do think that the early people went as far as they could go, and there were certain colonies that just got isolated for thousands of years. One of the fascinating things that DNA is showing us, which actually blood types were showing us way before that, is that the oldest people in the Americas are in South America, the ones that got separated early and didn’t mix their DNA, like the people in the Amazon.
Most of those guys have O-blood type and they’re haplogroup D, which is the oldest one that entered the U.S. And what are they doing down there? I do believe they came across the Bering Strait. We have no real evidence to say they came in mass across Oceania. So they made it probably by boat along the coast all the way to South America.
Lex Fridman
So there’s some kind of cultural engine that drove them to explore. So if you had to bet all your money, it happened like tens of thousands of years ago, but in a very rapid pace. There’s these explorers. They went all the way to South America and there established their more stable existence. And from there, South America, Mesoamerica, North America was gradually expanded into that area?
So there’s some kind of cultural engine that drove them to explore. So if you had to bet all your money, it happened like tens of thousands of years ago, but in a very rapid pace. There’s these explorers. They went all the way to South America and there established their more stable existence. And from there, South America, Mesoamerica, North America was gradually expanded into that area?
Ed Barnhart
I think the next waves came down and did North America and Central America, and the very first wave made it all the way down to South America and got isolated there.
I think the next waves came down and did North America and Central America, and the very first wave made it all the way down to South America and got isolated there.
Lex Fridman
Isolated.
Isolated.
Ed Barnhart
And then mixed in with the next groups that came.
And then mixed in with the next groups that came.
Lex Fridman
That’s fascinating.
That’s fascinating.
Ed Barnhart
There’s an interesting correlate in Europe where today everybody feels like Celtic people are from Ireland, but actually Celtic people started in Eastern Europe and it was the entire area. And when Rome swept everything and Rome was now the ruler of the day, it was only that far edge of the Celtic world, Ireland, that they were like, “Ah, we’re not going to mess with those guys on that island. We’ll leave them be.” So now it looks like that’s the heart of Celtic tradition, but actually it’s the fringe.
There’s an interesting correlate in Europe where today everybody feels like Celtic people are from Ireland, but actually Celtic people started in Eastern Europe and it was the entire area. And when Rome swept everything and Rome was now the ruler of the day, it was only that far edge of the Celtic world, Ireland, that they were like, “Ah, we’re not going to mess with those guys on that island. We’ll leave them be.” So now it looks like that’s the heart of Celtic tradition, but actually it’s the fringe.
Lex Fridman
So if it is 60,000 years ago, these are really early humans?
So if it is 60,000 years ago, these are really early humans?
Ed Barnhart
Yeah. And there were consistent things that have been coming out for decades about very old carbon-14 dates in the Amazon and in the Andes area that everybody just dismissed as, “No, it didn’t get a date of 40,000 years.” But I think we’re going to come back around to start readdressing some of these based on new evidence at hand.
Yeah. And there were consistent things that have been coming out for decades about very old carbon-14 dates in the Amazon and in the Andes area that everybody just dismissed as, “No, it didn’t get a date of 40,000 years.” But I think we’re going to come back around to start readdressing some of these based on new evidence at hand.
Lex Fridman
And that’s the interesting thing. The early human spread throughout the world and then, like you said, perhaps have gotten isolated, and then civilizations sprung from there, and they all have similar elements even though they were isolated. That’s really interesting. That’s really interesting that there’s multiple cradles of civilization, not just one. One good idea, those ideas naturally come up. Those structures naturally come up.
And that’s the interesting thing. The early human spread throughout the world and then, like you said, perhaps have gotten isolated, and then civilizations sprung from there, and they all have similar elements even though they were isolated. That’s really interesting. That’s really interesting that there’s multiple cradles of civilization, not just one. One good idea, those ideas naturally come up. Those structures naturally come up.
Ed Barnhart
And I wonder whether the similarities that all those cradles have, it could be a shared much deeper past that they all have, or it could be a more Star Trek thing where Captain Kirk was always talking about the theory of parallel human development, that humans across the universe go through certain stages of development and that, that could be the answer to it.
And I wonder whether the similarities that all those cradles have, it could be a shared much deeper past that they all have, or it could be a more Star Trek thing where Captain Kirk was always talking about the theory of parallel human development, that humans across the universe go through certain stages of development and that, that could be the answer to it.
Lex Fridman
Which one do you lean on? Which one do you lean towards?
Which one do you lean on? Which one do you lean towards?
Ed Barnhart
I think it’s a case by case thing. I think if we look globally, I’d lean much more towards the human parallel development. But if I look just to the Americas and we have a shorter time period where the things that become major civilizations, now, I’ll say up to 30,000 years ago, which is still a blip in the time of humans, I think that there were shared things that those people came over with from Asia and that, as they got separated, that they had core values that then turned into things like religion and cultural customs that we can see. I’m a big proponent that there are commonalities in all the cultures of the Americas that lead back to and point to a single distant origin.
I think it’s a case by case thing. I think if we look globally, I’d lean much more towards the human parallel development. But if I look just to the Americas and we have a shorter time period where the things that become major civilizations, now, I’ll say up to 30,000 years ago, which is still a blip in the time of humans, I think that there were shared things that those people came over with from Asia and that, as they got separated, that they had core values that then turned into things like religion and cultural customs that we can see. I’m a big proponent that there are commonalities in all the cultures of the Americas that lead back to and point to a single distant origin.
South America
Lex Fridman
You’ve spoken about the lost cradle of civilization, South America. South America is not often talked about as one of the cradles of civilization, South America, Mesoamerica. Can you explain?
You’ve spoken about the lost cradle of civilization, South America. South America is not often talked about as one of the cradles of civilization, South America, Mesoamerica. Can you explain?
Ed Barnhart
Well, we have very early stuff in South America. You’re right. Especially as an American, our country’s so big and we are so far removed from these places, we don’t even think about it. But more and more we’re seeing things that predate the earliest stuff that we like to talk about, like Egypt and Mesopotamia. It’s all on the Peruvian coast that we have these cradles of civilization. Someday we might start talking about the Amazon more and more, but right now what we’ve got are things that date back into the 3000s BCE along the coast of Peru. And there are big stone-built pyramids and temples, and they’re amazingly isolated, even now that we’ve found them.
Well, we have very early stuff in South America. You’re right. Especially as an American, our country’s so big and we are so far removed from these places, we don’t even think about it. But more and more we’re seeing things that predate the earliest stuff that we like to talk about, like Egypt and Mesopotamia. It’s all on the Peruvian coast that we have these cradles of civilization. Someday we might start talking about the Amazon more and more, but right now what we’ve got are things that date back into the 3000s BCE along the coast of Peru. And there are big stone-built pyramids and temples, and they’re amazingly isolated, even now that we’ve found them.
Some of them, Caral is one of the most famous ones just north of Lima, we’ve known about it for a couple of decades now, how old it is. But every time I visit there, it’s like I visited the moon. There’s absolutely nobody there, not for miles. It’s amazing how such a discovery was made, and yet still nobody goes to see it. It’s not easy to get to.
Lex Fridman
So you think there’s a bunch of locations like that? Some may not have been discovered in the Peru area.
So you think there’s a bunch of locations like that? Some may not have been discovered in the Peru area.
Ed Barnhart
Oh, there are so many. Peru has tons. That desert gets really ugly quick and it buries things completely. There are so many pyramids out there that are still completely untouched. When people hear the name pyramids, they think of Egypt immediately. Egypt has got about 140 pyramids, and we have pretty much found them all. Peru has thousands, thousands of pyramids, and not all of them were built of stone. Some of them were Adobe bricks, which have weathered terribly, so now they’re not exciting places to visit today. What’s funny too, we started off talking about whether I think there’s a lost civilization out there, there are definitely things that are still to be discovered, but there are some things that were discovered 100 years ago and archeologists, or back then they call themselves antiquarians, just passed over.
Oh, there are so many. Peru has tons. That desert gets really ugly quick and it buries things completely. There are so many pyramids out there that are still completely untouched. When people hear the name pyramids, they think of Egypt immediately. Egypt has got about 140 pyramids, and we have pretty much found them all. Peru has thousands, thousands of pyramids, and not all of them were built of stone. Some of them were Adobe bricks, which have weathered terribly, so now they’re not exciting places to visit today. What’s funny too, we started off talking about whether I think there’s a lost civilization out there, there are definitely things that are still to be discovered, but there are some things that were discovered 100 years ago and archeologists, or back then they call themselves antiquarians, just passed over.
Caral was one of these sites because the coast of Peru has, some of those pyramids that were made by the Moche are full of gold and beautiful ceramics, things that you can sell for big money. But Caral was found a long time ago, but the archeologist was like, “God, no gold, no ceramics. Forget about it. This place is no good. We can’t sell anything here.” And then about the 1970s or ’80s, somebody said, “Hey, no ceramics. Is that older than the invention of ceramics? Shit, we better go take another look at that place.”
Lex Fridman
So what’s the dating on Caral?
So what’s the dating on Caral?
Ed Barnhart
Caral, I think, starts at about 3200 BCE, and it lasts as a major civilization with a lot of other cities around it until about 1800 BCE.
Caral, I think, starts at about 3200 BCE, and it lasts as a major civilization with a lot of other cities around it until about 1800 BCE.
Lex Fridman
So what’s the story behind looking at some of these images? What’s the story about constructions like that? What was the idea of that thing? Isn’t that amazing?
So what’s the story behind looking at some of these images? What’s the story about constructions like that? What was the idea of that thing? Isn’t that amazing?
Ed Barnhart
Gosh, it should be some sort of, I’ll be a flaky archeologist like, “This is a place where rituals took place.”
Gosh, it should be some sort of, I’ll be a flaky archeologist like, “This is a place where rituals took place.”
Lex Fridman
It could mean a million [inaudible 00:26:09].
It could mean a million [inaudible 00:26:09].
Ed Barnhart
So many things we say are so just painfully vague, and that’s about what we got. A place like this, I know the one we’re looking at here, I’ve been here a couple of times, in the pyramid behind it, the rubble’s built in a way where the building won’t rock apart. This is a very earthquake-prone place, but the buildings haven’t fallen because they make these net baskets of rocks inside that all wiggle around and don’t allow the building to fall down. And inside these, we’ve also found a couple of things that were babies, that were human babies that were buried in there. There’s a lot of people that see that and go, “Oh, look at that. They were sacrificing babies, these monsters.”
So many things we say are so just painfully vague, and that’s about what we got. A place like this, I know the one we’re looking at here, I’ve been here a couple of times, in the pyramid behind it, the rubble’s built in a way where the building won’t rock apart. This is a very earthquake-prone place, but the buildings haven’t fallen because they make these net baskets of rocks inside that all wiggle around and don’t allow the building to fall down. And inside these, we’ve also found a couple of things that were babies, that were human babies that were buried in there. There’s a lot of people that see that and go, “Oh, look at that. They were sacrificing babies, these monsters.”
I think a lot of the things that are interpreted as baby sacrifices, Coral’s evidence being one of them, I think it’s more about the tragic nature of infant mortality. In the past, it was a lot more common. There were cultures that didn’t even really properly name their kid until they got to five, because chances were they were going to die. And so I think a lot of these babies that we find in these ceremonial contexts that are interpreted as sacrifices, I think they’re putting them in special places because they mourn the death of their kids, and it just happened a lot more frequently then.
Pyramids
Lex Fridman
One of the things you said that really surprised me is that pyramids were built in Peru possibly hundreds of years before they were built in Egypt. Is that true?
One of the things you said that really surprised me is that pyramids were built in Peru possibly hundreds of years before they were built in Egypt. Is that true?
Ed Barnhart
Absolutely. Absolutely.
Absolutely. Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
That’s crazy.
That’s crazy.
Ed Barnhart
In fact, there’s one that’s now pushing 6000 BCE. That’s thousands of years before the stuff in Egypt. And that one’s called Huaca Prieta. And it was not an Egyptian pyramid, but it was a pyramid and it was thousands of years before.
In fact, there’s one that’s now pushing 6000 BCE. That’s thousands of years before the stuff in Egypt. And that one’s called Huaca Prieta. And it was not an Egyptian pyramid, but it was a pyramid and it was thousands of years before.
Lex Fridman
What do you think is the motivation to build a pyramid? The fact that it can withstand the elements structurally, that kind of thing? Why do humans build pyramids and why do they build it in all kinds of different locations in the world?
What do you think is the motivation to build a pyramid? The fact that it can withstand the elements structurally, that kind of thing? Why do humans build pyramids and why do they build it in all kinds of different locations in the world?
Ed Barnhart
Well, my rude answer is pretty boring, really. A lot of people ask me, “Why are there pyramids all over the planet? Is that a coincidence?” I think that when people wanted to build a big building without rebar or cement, you end up building something with a fat base that goes up to a skinny top, and that turns into a pyramid. Any kid who’s playing with blocks on the floor builds a couple towers and his brother knocks them down, and if he wants one that’s going to stay and be tall, he ends up making something with a fat base and a tiny top. And I think that building something big and tall together is one of those human things like, “We built that. That will be here after we’re gone. People will remember who we were.” If there’s any human commonality, it’s fear of our own deaths and that we were nothing and no one will ever remember us. I think that the first big monuments like that were probably a group of people saying, “We’re going to do something that people will remember forever.”
Well, my rude answer is pretty boring, really. A lot of people ask me, “Why are there pyramids all over the planet? Is that a coincidence?” I think that when people wanted to build a big building without rebar or cement, you end up building something with a fat base that goes up to a skinny top, and that turns into a pyramid. Any kid who’s playing with blocks on the floor builds a couple towers and his brother knocks them down, and if he wants one that’s going to stay and be tall, he ends up making something with a fat base and a tiny top. And I think that building something big and tall together is one of those human things like, “We built that. That will be here after we’re gone. People will remember who we were.” If there’s any human commonality, it’s fear of our own deaths and that we were nothing and no one will ever remember us. I think that the first big monuments like that were probably a group of people saying, “We’re going to do something that people will remember forever.”
Now, that being said, remember we were just talking about Huaca Prieta and this one that’s almost 6000 BC now, is the first one, that one’s a funny case. We just talked about all these lofty goals, but actually I’m pretty sure that Huaca Prieta’s first pyramid was about capping a smelly pile of trash. I think everybody piled up their trash in the middle of town and it stunk. It’s on the coast. It stunk like fish. And somebody said, “If we just bury this thing with dirt, it won’t smell anymore.” And then it was a big mound where people could get up and talk to everybody and then said, “Well, it’s squishy. If we cap it with clay, then it will really not smell.” I really think that the very first pyramids in Peru were about trash management. Talk about deflating, huh?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But then they probably saw it and they were impressed and humbled by the enormity of the construction, and they were like, maybe the next guy thought, “Maybe we should keep building these kinds of things.”
Yeah. But then they probably saw it and they were impressed and humbled by the enormity of the construction, and they were like, maybe the next guy thought, “Maybe we should keep building these kinds of things.”
Ed Barnhart
Yeah. Not to jump ahead, but in North America, where they also made pyramids, there’s this interesting evolution where there were these piles of shells along rivers and along the coastlines. People ate a lot of shells. That was an easy thing to collect and eat. So these piles of shells would be near communities, and they probably became landmarks, but eventually they started burying their dead inside those too. Probably, again, about stink and about, “Well, we don’t want the dogs to eat them. Maybe we’ll put them in the middle of the shell pile.” But then that all of a sudden became this, ” That’s where my grandfather’s body is. That’s where great-grandfather’s body is.” And all of a sudden people started being attached to place, not just for the resources, but for the shared memories of their ancestors. So when the very first pyramid was built in the Ohio area by the Adena people, it was built out of dirt, but it’s full of bodies. And I think it’s an echo of an old thing where they used to be putting bodies in shell mounds.
Yeah. Not to jump ahead, but in North America, where they also made pyramids, there’s this interesting evolution where there were these piles of shells along rivers and along the coastlines. People ate a lot of shells. That was an easy thing to collect and eat. So these piles of shells would be near communities, and they probably became landmarks, but eventually they started burying their dead inside those too. Probably, again, about stink and about, “Well, we don’t want the dogs to eat them. Maybe we’ll put them in the middle of the shell pile.” But then that all of a sudden became this, ” That’s where my grandfather’s body is. That’s where great-grandfather’s body is.” And all of a sudden people started being attached to place, not just for the resources, but for the shared memories of their ancestors. So when the very first pyramid was built in the Ohio area by the Adena people, it was built out of dirt, but it’s full of bodies. And I think it’s an echo of an old thing where they used to be putting bodies in shell mounds.
Lex Fridman
So where and who were the first civilizations in South America, Mesoamerica?
So where and who were the first civilizations in South America, Mesoamerica?
Ed Barnhart
Well, I think we’re still piecing that together. Coming back to the first things we talked about, I think we’re still missing a lot of stuff, especially in South America. It just keeps getting older and older. Part of the reason it’s hard to answer that question is, at what point do we consider people a civilization or a culture? We have in the Americas this long period of time that we call the Paleo-Indian time where they were hunting megafauna. And then when those went away, we get into this even longer period of time called The Archaic, where they’re just hunters and gatherers. Sometimes somebody’s coming up with a cool different kind of arrowhead. They go back and forth with different hunting tools, but really nothing changes for thousands of years and then finally they start developing into these larger groups, which for the most part has to do with agriculture.
Well, I think we’re still piecing that together. Coming back to the first things we talked about, I think we’re still missing a lot of stuff, especially in South America. It just keeps getting older and older. Part of the reason it’s hard to answer that question is, at what point do we consider people a civilization or a culture? We have in the Americas this long period of time that we call the Paleo-Indian time where they were hunting megafauna. And then when those went away, we get into this even longer period of time called The Archaic, where they’re just hunters and gatherers. Sometimes somebody’s coming up with a cool different kind of arrowhead. They go back and forth with different hunting tools, but really nothing changes for thousands of years and then finally they start developing into these larger groups, which for the most part has to do with agriculture.
It used to be archeology that was just the end all, be all. Civilization starts with the invention of agriculture. And we can’t have sedentary communities until people learn how to farm. But that’s been discounted. Peru was a big part of that. That area of Caral, it’s connected to another city on the coast called Aspero. Aspero starts about the same time, but they’re all about fishing. They have no farming. And Caral, who’s upriver from them, is farming, but funny enough, they’re not really farming food. They’re farming cotton and they’re making nets and they’re trading the nets with the people on the coast for the fish. So it’s not as simple as, it’s just agriculture anymore. But it is, I think, still rooted in, how can we feed more people than just our family? How can we together create a food abundance so we’re no longer scared about running out of food?
Lex Fridman
So is it possible, which is something you’ve argued, that civilization started in the Amazon, in the jungle versus the coast?
So is it possible, which is something you’ve argued, that civilization started in the Amazon, in the jungle versus the coast?
Ed Barnhart
I do think so. I think religion in South America began in the Amazon. I think there were people there, very old. Actually, the earliest pottery in all of the Americas, all these places that we have civilizations that grew up, you know where the oldest pottery is? The middle of the Amazon.
I do think so. I think religion in South America began in the Amazon. I think there were people there, very old. Actually, the earliest pottery in all of the Americas, all these places that we have civilizations that grew up, you know where the oldest pottery is? The middle of the Amazon.
Religion
Lex Fridman
So there’s interesting cultures developing in the Amazon. So religion, you would say, preceded civilization?
So there’s interesting cultures developing in the Amazon. So religion, you would say, preceded civilization?
Ed Barnhart
In South America, Caral and Aspero that I was just talking about, it’s weird what a dearth of art and any evidence of religion we have. We have those pyramids and things that we call temples, but we don’t really know what went on in there. And there’s no…
In South America, Caral and Aspero that I was just talking about, it’s weird what a dearth of art and any evidence of religion we have. We have those pyramids and things that we call temples, but we don’t really know what went on in there. And there’s no…
Ed Barnhart
… Things that we call temples, but we don’t really know what went on in there, and there’s no hints of religious iconography, ceremonies, nothing like that. The first stuff that we get is right when that culture ends, about 1800 BCE. This culture called Chavin starts up and their main temple is up in the Andes in this place of path of least resistance between the Amazon and the coast. It’s about three days walk either way, from this place where this temple is. That’s where we start seeing the very first religious iconography and it’s all over the temples. There are things that are definitely from the coast, but the iconography are all jaguars and snakes and crocodiles, and those don’t come from the coast. All of those things are coming out of the Amazon.
… Things that we call temples, but we don’t really know what went on in there, and there’s no hints of religious iconography, ceremonies, nothing like that. The first stuff that we get is right when that culture ends, about 1800 BCE. This culture called Chavin starts up and their main temple is up in the Andes in this place of path of least resistance between the Amazon and the coast. It’s about three days walk either way, from this place where this temple is. That’s where we start seeing the very first religious iconography and it’s all over the temples. There are things that are definitely from the coast, but the iconography are all jaguars and snakes and crocodiles, and those don’t come from the coast. All of those things are coming out of the Amazon.
Lex Fridman
Religion is a really powerful idea. Religions are one of the most powerful ideas. There are the strongest myths that tie people together. And to you, it’s possible that this powerful idea in South America started in the Amazon.
Religion is a really powerful idea. Religions are one of the most powerful ideas. There are the strongest myths that tie people together. And to you, it’s possible that this powerful idea in South America started in the Amazon.
Ed Barnhart
I do. I do think it did, and you’re right, ideas are more powerful than weapons, but archeology can’t see them at all. Sometimes we can see ideas manifesting in the things they create and lead to, but there’s an interpretation problem. Are we right about what idea created this? Those are things that archeology just can’t get at.
I do. I do think it did, and you’re right, ideas are more powerful than weapons, but archeology can’t see them at all. Sometimes we can see ideas manifesting in the things they create and lead to, but there’s an interpretation problem. Are we right about what idea created this? Those are things that archeology just can’t get at.
Lex Fridman
That’s one of the challenges of archeology and looking into ancient histories. You’re trying to not just understand what they were doing in terms of architecture, but understand what was going on inside their mind.
That’s one of the challenges of archeology and looking into ancient histories. You’re trying to not just understand what they were doing in terms of architecture, but understand what was going on inside their mind.
Ed Barnhart
That’s really what I’m in it for, trying to understand these people and it’s real detective work, and we know we’re dealing with a totally flawed record. We only have what could preserve the test of time. If we look around this room here, if 2,000 years of weathering happened in this room, what would be left and what would we think happened here?
That’s really what I’m in it for, trying to understand these people and it’s real detective work, and we know we’re dealing with a totally flawed record. We only have what could preserve the test of time. If we look around this room here, if 2,000 years of weathering happened in this room, what would be left and what would we think happened here?
Lex Fridman
Right, right, but not in this room, but if you look at thousands of rooms like it, maybe you can start to piece things together about the different ideologies that ruled the world, the religion, the different ideas. Tell me about this fanged deity. One of your more controversial ideas is that you believe that the religions, there’s a thread that connects the different civilizations, the societies of the Andean region and the religion they practiced is more monotheistic than is currently believed in the mainstream.
Right, right, but not in this room, but if you look at thousands of rooms like it, maybe you can start to piece things together about the different ideologies that ruled the world, the religion, the different ideas. Tell me about this fanged deity. One of your more controversial ideas is that you believe that the religions, there’s a thread that connects the different civilizations, the societies of the Andean region and the religion they practiced is more monotheistic than is currently believed in the mainstream.
Ed Barnhart
That is exactly what I think, and I think it’s all about this fanged deity who somewhere, thousands of years ago, crawled his way out of the Amazon up into the Andes and a religion took hold. That could have been a combination of ideas from the coast and the Amazon. But he is the one creator deity, in my opinion, through all of these cultures. And the people in the Amazon still talk about him there. His name is Viho Masse in some groups, but they say that his emissaries on earth are the jaguars and that he is the creator deity.
That is exactly what I think, and I think it’s all about this fanged deity who somewhere, thousands of years ago, crawled his way out of the Amazon up into the Andes and a religion took hold. That could have been a combination of ideas from the coast and the Amazon. But he is the one creator deity, in my opinion, through all of these cultures. And the people in the Amazon still talk about him there. His name is Viho Masse in some groups, but they say that his emissaries on earth are the jaguars and that he is the creator deity.
Lex Fridman
Why is the current mainstream belief is that a lot of the religions are not monotheistic?
Why is the current mainstream belief is that a lot of the religions are not monotheistic?
Ed Barnhart
Well, there are bona fide pantheons. Greece had one, Egypt had one, Mesopotamia had one. Lots of the early religions of the old world were pantheons, and I think that was part of the problem. The earliest archeologists walked in there with a preconceived notion that ancient cultures have pantheons. And so they went to the art looking for them, and they came up with things like the shark god and the moon goddess and the sun God, and all these things. But when I look at the art, and I was trained by a person right here in Austin, Texas as an art historian, you follow certain diagnostic traits through art to see the development over time. And when I look at it and use that methodology, there’s a single face with goggle eyes and fangs and claws on his hands and feet and snakes coming off of his head and off of his belt. He’s got really identifiable traits.
Well, there are bona fide pantheons. Greece had one, Egypt had one, Mesopotamia had one. Lots of the early religions of the old world were pantheons, and I think that was part of the problem. The earliest archeologists walked in there with a preconceived notion that ancient cultures have pantheons. And so they went to the art looking for them, and they came up with things like the shark god and the moon goddess and the sun God, and all these things. But when I look at the art, and I was trained by a person right here in Austin, Texas as an art historian, you follow certain diagnostic traits through art to see the development over time. And when I look at it and use that methodology, there’s a single face with goggle eyes and fangs and claws on his hands and feet and snakes coming off of his head and off of his belt. He’s got really identifiable traits.
He also likes to sever people’s heads off and carry them around, but he’s the fanged deity and he’s there. He shows up in Chavín de Juantar, the capital of that Chavín culture, and he keeps showing up through every culture, even thousands of miles away throughout the next two millennium, right up to the Inca. The Inca have a creator deity they call Viracocha, but Viracocha is the fanged deity. When we do see him, by the time you get to Inca, they do this almost Islamic thing where they say you can’t understand the face of Viracocha. So when they do put him in a cosmogram, they’ll make him just a blob, like he’s just unknowable, but he’s at the very top. I think we’re misunderstanding a lot of things that we used to say were deities as just supernatural beings.
If we flip the mirror on Christianity and take a look at it, which of course, Christianity is monotheistic, right? It would be heresy to say otherwise, but who are all these other characters? Who are all these angels and demons and Jesus Christ? I don’t even know who the Holy Spirit is, but he’s some sort of supernatural being. But it’s that monotheistic system has lots of things that have supernatural powers that are not God. That’s where I think the crux of us misunderstanding ancient Andean art is.
Lex Fridman
So what is the process of analyzing art through time that try to figure out what the important entities are for that culture? Do you just see what shows up over and over and over and over?
So what is the process of analyzing art through time that try to figure out what the important entities are for that culture? Do you just see what shows up over and over and over and over?
Ed Barnhart
Well, certainly without the advent of writing, depictions in art have all sorts of meanings encoded in them, and there are certain, what we call diagnostic elements. We can pull apart the same sort of thing like in the Greek pantheon, you know by their dress and what they’re holding, what the different gods are. You can tell Hades from Zeus by the different things they’re holding lightning bolts or tridents or whatever. So they all have these diagnostic elements to them. So that’s how art history goes about analyzing art over time. Once we can put it in a chronological sequence, then we can say, “Okay, here’s a deity here in Chavín culture.” Now we move forward 500 years. Now we’re in Moche and Nazca culture. Where are the deities here? And what I see is that same guy with not just one or two traits, but a whole package of them that shows up again and again and again for thousands of years in each one of these cultures.
Well, certainly without the advent of writing, depictions in art have all sorts of meanings encoded in them, and there are certain, what we call diagnostic elements. We can pull apart the same sort of thing like in the Greek pantheon, you know by their dress and what they’re holding, what the different gods are. You can tell Hades from Zeus by the different things they’re holding lightning bolts or tridents or whatever. So they all have these diagnostic elements to them. So that’s how art history goes about analyzing art over time. Once we can put it in a chronological sequence, then we can say, “Okay, here’s a deity here in Chavín culture.” Now we move forward 500 years. Now we’re in Moche and Nazca culture. Where are the deities here? And what I see is that same guy with not just one or two traits, but a whole package of them that shows up again and again and again for thousands of years in each one of these cultures.
He’s got circular eyes, he’s got a fanged mouth. He’s got claws on his hands and feet. He’s a humanoid, but he also has snakes coming off of his head like hair and snakes coming off of his belt. And then not so much in Chavín, but as it goes forward, he starts carting around severed heads, human severed heads. So they’re like, in the old literature, the Moche will call him the decapitator deity, but then they have these other like, “Oh, here’s the crab deity and here’s the fox deity.” But if you look at them, the crab deity is just that guy’s face coming off of a crab, and the fox deity is that guy’s face coming off of a fox.
So I think on that particular instance, I explain it similar to what Zeus did. You know how Zeus was able to turn into whatever animal he wanted to get with the woman he wanted, and he showed up in all sorts of forms, but he was always Zeus. I think that the fanged deity manifests himself through people and animals throughout the art and that there are missing stories of mythology that we don’t have anymore.
Lex Fridman
And across hundreds of years, thousands of years from Chavín to Moja to Inca, as you’re saying.
And across hundreds of years, thousands of years from Chavín to Moja to Inca, as you’re saying.
Ed Barnhart
Right. Wari has them too, Tiahuanaco, that famous place, Pumapunku, he’s all over there.
Right. Wari has them too, Tiahuanaco, that famous place, Pumapunku, he’s all over there.
Lex Fridman
I wonder how those ideas spread and morph of this fanged deity?
I wonder how those ideas spread and morph of this fanged deity?
Ed Barnhart
I think people walked and proselytized and places like Chavín, there’s a later one in Inca times called Pachacamac that are pilgrimage places where people come in to be healed if they’re sick, but also just to pay homage to the powers that be. So Chavín was a place where people from the Amazon and people from the coast were all coming together. In fact, we saw it in the archeology there. There’s these interesting labyrinths under the pyramids with the fanged deity all over them that have… One labyrinth will have all pottery. The next labyrinth will have a bunch of animal bones. The next one will have a bunch of things made out of stone. So people are showing up and giving this tribute and they’re learning and then they’re going back to their communities. So I think it dispersed from certain pilgrimage spots and became just like pilgrimage spots do. Somebody goes back and they build a temple to the fanged deity.
I think people walked and proselytized and places like Chavín, there’s a later one in Inca times called Pachacamac that are pilgrimage places where people come in to be healed if they’re sick, but also just to pay homage to the powers that be. So Chavín was a place where people from the Amazon and people from the coast were all coming together. In fact, we saw it in the archeology there. There’s these interesting labyrinths under the pyramids with the fanged deity all over them that have… One labyrinth will have all pottery. The next labyrinth will have a bunch of animal bones. The next one will have a bunch of things made out of stone. So people are showing up and giving this tribute and they’re learning and then they’re going back to their communities. So I think it dispersed from certain pilgrimage spots and became just like pilgrimage spots do. Somebody goes back and they build a temple to the fanged deity.
Lex Fridman
Do we know much about the relationship they had with the fanged deity and their conception of the powers of the fanged deity? Were they afraid of the fanged deities and all-knowing God? Is it something that brings joy and harvest or is it something that you’re supposed to be afraid of and sacrifice animals and humans to keep at bay?
Do we know much about the relationship they had with the fanged deity and their conception of the powers of the fanged deity? Were they afraid of the fanged deities and all-knowing God? Is it something that brings joy and harvest or is it something that you’re supposed to be afraid of and sacrifice animals and humans to keep at bay?
Ed Barnhart
I think he had two sides of the coin. A lot of the Hindu gods are… One aspect is terrible, the other aspect is lovely. I think he had that same sorts of qualities because we do see him as a fierce warrior taking people’s heads off, and he is a jaguar, which in and of itself implies a certain power and ferocity, but then there are other funny things about him. He is definitely involved in a lot of healing ceremonies and a lot of those healing ceremonies are involved with sex acts. When it comes to the Moche, there’s this whole group of sexual pottery where priests are having sex with women or men, and some of them show their faces transforming into that fanged deity, he is acting through them.
I think he had two sides of the coin. A lot of the Hindu gods are… One aspect is terrible, the other aspect is lovely. I think he had that same sorts of qualities because we do see him as a fierce warrior taking people’s heads off, and he is a jaguar, which in and of itself implies a certain power and ferocity, but then there are other funny things about him. He is definitely involved in a lot of healing ceremonies and a lot of those healing ceremonies are involved with sex acts. When it comes to the Moche, there’s this whole group of sexual pottery where priests are having sex with women or men, and some of them show their faces transforming into that fanged deity, he is acting through them.
But the thing that most cracks me up that shows his softer side is the fanged deity has a little puppy. He has a puppy that’s just dancing around his feet and jumping up on him in various scenes. They see him again and again. Sometimes he’s in these healing sex scenes. In fact, I tracked that puppy from other contexts to these sex scenes where a priest was having sex with somebody in a house and a fanged deity, and there’s a puppy just scratching at the door like, “Hey, you forgot me.” And then finally, one day I found one with the puppy having sex with the woman instead of the fanged deity. I was like, “Oh, he really is very involved in this. What is this weird puppy?”
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Ed Barnhart
So yeah, he likes to take heads off, but he also has a puppy he adores.
So yeah, he likes to take heads off, but he also has a puppy he adores.
Shamanism
Lex Fridman
This awesomely makes sense now because I saw the opening of a paper you wrote 30 years ago on shamanism and Mocha civilization. It reads, “The Mocha are the major focus of this paper. Sex puppies and headhunting will be shown to be related to ancient Mocha shamanism.” So now I understand. I was like, “Well, the puppies.”
This awesomely makes sense now because I saw the opening of a paper you wrote 30 years ago on shamanism and Mocha civilization. It reads, “The Mocha are the major focus of this paper. Sex puppies and headhunting will be shown to be related to ancient Mocha shamanism.” So now I understand. I was like, “Well, the puppies.”
Ed Barnhart
Puppies, yeah, it’s true.
Puppies, yeah, it’s true.
Lex Fridman
And the headhunting. That’s the decapitator.
And the headhunting. That’s the decapitator.
Ed Barnhart
And I’ve added rock and roll to that list since actually. Rock and roll music is also a big part of it.
And I’ve added rock and roll to that list since actually. Rock and roll music is also a big part of it.
Lex Fridman
Oh, interesting.
Oh, interesting.
Ed Barnhart
They call spirits down. There’s this whole spirit world. There’s the ancestors and the people that drink San Pedro cactus juice, they don’t talk about the fanged deity anymore. I think Christianity in 500 years has somewhat put him in the back. It was unpopular to have a pagan deity. So they don’t talk about him much anymore though he’s still around. They’re around Trujillo. They call him Iopec. But music, in the Amazon, they play flute. Sometimes a chorus of women sing and that’s supposed to bring the spirits down into the ceremony. There’s a spirit that’s hurting the person that’s sick, and then the priest or the shaman or the corundero, whatever you want to call him, has his own posse of spirits that are going to help him figure out what’s going on.
They call spirits down. There’s this whole spirit world. There’s the ancestors and the people that drink San Pedro cactus juice, they don’t talk about the fanged deity anymore. I think Christianity in 500 years has somewhat put him in the back. It was unpopular to have a pagan deity. So they don’t talk about him much anymore though he’s still around. They’re around Trujillo. They call him Iopec. But music, in the Amazon, they play flute. Sometimes a chorus of women sing and that’s supposed to bring the spirits down into the ceremony. There’s a spirit that’s hurting the person that’s sick, and then the priest or the shaman or the corundero, whatever you want to call him, has his own posse of spirits that are going to help him figure out what’s going on.
So when the music starts, that’s bringing those spirits in and people don’t see them unless they’ve imbibed the San Pedro cactus juice, which is this hallucinogen, which is in the Amazon side, it was Ayahuasca. On the coast, it was San Pedro cactus, but that’s what allows you to actually see that other world.
Ayahuasca
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I went to the Amazon recently and did Ayahuasca, a very high dose of it.
Yeah. I went to the Amazon recently and did Ayahuasca, a very high dose of it.
Ed Barnhart
Bold move.
Bold move.
Lex Fridman
When in Rome. How far back does that go?
When in Rome. How far back does that go?
Ed Barnhart
Oh, I think longer than anybody can remember, but it’s a natural plant that’s been there forever. I think that it’s thousands and thousands of years. That’s another thing Chavín de Juantara was talking about where I think the things came, the religion came from the Amazon. There’s this wall on the backside that faces the Amazon side. So if you’re entering the city from the Amazon path, you see this wall first, and it’s a bunch of faces that some of them are humans. Some of them are total jaguar and some of them are transforming in-between. But there’s a group of them that are midway through transformation and they show their nostrils leaking out this snot that’s coming down their face. San Pedro doesn’t do that to you, but Ayahuasca does.
Oh, I think longer than anybody can remember, but it’s a natural plant that’s been there forever. I think that it’s thousands and thousands of years. That’s another thing Chavín de Juantara was talking about where I think the things came, the religion came from the Amazon. There’s this wall on the backside that faces the Amazon side. So if you’re entering the city from the Amazon path, you see this wall first, and it’s a bunch of faces that some of them are humans. Some of them are total jaguar and some of them are transforming in-between. But there’s a group of them that are midway through transformation and they show their nostrils leaking out this snot that’s coming down their face. San Pedro doesn’t do that to you, but Ayahuasca does.
Ayahuasca traditionally, they’d take a blow gun and just shoot it up your nose or up your ass, but a lot of times up your nose and when it shoots up your nose, the first thing that happens is just this gush of snot comes out of you. And there are stone depictions of people uncontrollably snotting on the backside of this temple from 3,000 years ago.
Lex Fridman
So that you think could have been a big component of the development of religion and shamanism?
So that you think could have been a big component of the development of religion and shamanism?
Ed Barnhart
I think that hallucinogens opened the mind then like they opened the mind now.
I think that hallucinogens opened the mind then like they opened the mind now.
Lex Fridman
Do you think that the stoned ape theory, do you think that actually could have been an actual catalyst for the formation of civilization?
Do you think that the stoned ape theory, do you think that actually could have been an actual catalyst for the formation of civilization?
Ed Barnhart
In the Americas, yes, I do, though hallucinogens are not part of every ancient tradition in the world. In fact, strangely, the majority of plants that are actually psychotropic, not just mood altering, are from here in the Americas. There are very few drugs that will make you hallucinate outside of the Americas. Of course, now they’re global and they can be grown all over the place. But originally speaking, very, very few were outside of the Americas. So they were part of the experience here in a way that they just couldn’t be in other places.
In the Americas, yes, I do, though hallucinogens are not part of every ancient tradition in the world. In fact, strangely, the majority of plants that are actually psychotropic, not just mood altering, are from here in the Americas. There are very few drugs that will make you hallucinate outside of the Americas. Of course, now they’re global and they can be grown all over the place. But originally speaking, very, very few were outside of the Americas. So they were part of the experience here in a way that they just couldn’t be in other places.
Lex Fridman
I wonder to what degree they were just part of a ritual and the creative force behind art versus literally the method by which you come up with ideas that define as civilization. It’s the degree to which they had a role in the formation of civilizations. It’s fun to think about psychedelics being a critical role in formation of civilizations.
I wonder to what degree they were just part of a ritual and the creative force behind art versus literally the method by which you come up with ideas that define as civilization. It’s the degree to which they had a role in the formation of civilizations. It’s fun to think about psychedelics being a critical role in formation of civilizations.
Ed Barnhart
I think in terms of South America, they probably really were.
I think in terms of South America, they probably really were.
Lex Fridman
It’s possible.
It’s possible.
Ed Barnhart
In North America where we’re in a more northern climb here, and there are less of them, not so much, at least in terms of psychedelics, things like tobacco was always a big part of it. There’s more than one way to reach a hallucinatory state. The hard way is starvation, sleep deprivation. And for the Maya, for example, would go sleep deprivation, starvation, and then they’d cut themselves very badly. And that loss of blood, we believe triggered hallucinations and visions. Nothing to do with drugs. I would much prefer the drugs route.
In North America where we’re in a more northern climb here, and there are less of them, not so much, at least in terms of psychedelics, things like tobacco was always a big part of it. There’s more than one way to reach a hallucinatory state. The hard way is starvation, sleep deprivation. And for the Maya, for example, would go sleep deprivation, starvation, and then they’d cut themselves very badly. And that loss of blood, we believe triggered hallucinations and visions. Nothing to do with drugs. I would much prefer the drugs route.
Lex Fridman
It’s the result. The tools aren’t the thing that creates insight. It’s the result.
It’s the result. The tools aren’t the thing that creates insight. It’s the result.
Ed Barnhart
Hallucinogens are poisoning us. They’re killing us. It’s a near death state and people of the Americas believed sleeping was entering that other world, death. You entered this other world and that when you took this mighty dose of poison, it was helping you enter that other world for a period of time.
Hallucinogens are poisoning us. They’re killing us. It’s a near death state and people of the Americas believed sleeping was entering that other world, death. You entered this other world and that when you took this mighty dose of poison, it was helping you enter that other world for a period of time.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, as Tom Waits said in that one song, “I like my town with a little drop of poison.” So maybe that poison is a good catalyst for invention. So who were the early first mother cultures, mother civilizations in South America? If we look chronologically, is there a label we can put on the first peoples that emerged?
Yeah, as Tom Waits said in that one song, “I like my town with a little drop of poison.” So maybe that poison is a good catalyst for invention. So who were the early first mother cultures, mother civilizations in South America? If we look chronologically, is there a label we can put on the first peoples that emerged?
Ed Barnhart
That picture is evolving. Forever, it was just the Chavin people that we’ve been talking about. The ones with all the first depictions of religious art were the mother culture, and they certainly did transmit a lot of stuff, but then all of a sudden, we find Kerala. The next one that we’ve barely even begun looking at, but it’s probably older than Kerala, is Sachin culture. I was just poking around there last year and just from the bus on the highway, I could see, “That’s a pyramid out there. Oh, there’s another one.” And I know how old the stuff we have studied there is. It’s again, 3000 BC. We’re just barely beginning to understand them. Kerala frustrates me to no end, the lack of art there. We’ve got stones and bones and not even ceramics to go on, and they didn’t have the courtesy to leave me a bunch of art I can interpret. So I don’t know what those people believed.
That picture is evolving. Forever, it was just the Chavin people that we’ve been talking about. The ones with all the first depictions of religious art were the mother culture, and they certainly did transmit a lot of stuff, but then all of a sudden, we find Kerala. The next one that we’ve barely even begun looking at, but it’s probably older than Kerala, is Sachin culture. I was just poking around there last year and just from the bus on the highway, I could see, “That’s a pyramid out there. Oh, there’s another one.” And I know how old the stuff we have studied there is. It’s again, 3000 BC. We’re just barely beginning to understand them. Kerala frustrates me to no end, the lack of art there. We’ve got stones and bones and not even ceramics to go on, and they didn’t have the courtesy to leave me a bunch of art I can interpret. So I don’t know what those people believed.
Lex Fridman
Right. So one of the ways to understand what people believe is looking at the art, the stories told through the art, and then hopefully deciphering if they were doing any kind of writing.
Right. So one of the ways to understand what people believe is looking at the art, the stories told through the art, and then hopefully deciphering if they were doing any kind of writing.
Ed Barnhart
That’s our most fruitful place to try to get at this elusive ideas.
That’s our most fruitful place to try to get at this elusive ideas.
Lost City of Z
Lex Fridman
And it sucks when they don’t have art. If we just go back to the Amazon, you’ve mentioned that it’s possible that there’s a law civilization that existed in the Amazon, so it’s carried a lot of names. Lost City of Z or El Dorado. Do you think it’s possible it existed?
And it sucks when they don’t have art. If we just go back to the Amazon, you’ve mentioned that it’s possible that there’s a law civilization that existed in the Amazon, so it’s carried a lot of names. Lost City of Z or El Dorado. Do you think it’s possible it existed?
Ed Barnhart
Well, City of Z and El Dorado are in pretty different places. El Dorado, the ideas of where it is center around towards Columbia.
Well, City of Z and El Dorado are in pretty different places. El Dorado, the ideas of where it is center around towards Columbia.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Ed Barnhart
And the City of Z is named after a region of Brazil called the Xingu. And so those are an America worth of distance apart. People don’t really think about it on the map, but the entire United States would fit inside the Amazon. That’s how big that place is. And these two are on either end, but both of them have evidence of civilizations. It’s lowland and it floods all the time. So what they did is they’d make these big mounds and then they’d make huge causeways between mounds so they could walk through their cities while they were seasonally inundated. And a bunch of that stuff has been found in the Xingu area, like huge areas that would support tens of thousands of people.
And the City of Z is named after a region of Brazil called the Xingu. And so those are an America worth of distance apart. People don’t really think about it on the map, but the entire United States would fit inside the Amazon. That’s how big that place is. And these two are on either end, but both of them have evidence of civilizations. It’s lowland and it floods all the time. So what they did is they’d make these big mounds and then they’d make huge causeways between mounds so they could walk through their cities while they were seasonally inundated. And a bunch of that stuff has been found in the Xingu area, like huge areas that would support tens of thousands of people.
Again, it’s not stone built and it’s been under the forest forever. So it’s very torn up, but it’s there. Brazil is big on cattle farming more than ever now, and a thing that I think is completed now is Brazil and Bolivia partnered together and built a highway all the way across and opened up a whole bunch more land, which has found more of these what we call like geometric earthworks. So there’s more and more evidence of these civilizations. It’s not, it could be there. It’s there for sure.
Lex Fridman
By the way, the people who are trying to protect the rainforest really hate the highway. One of the things I learned is if you build a road, loggers will come-
By the way, the people who are trying to protect the rainforest really hate the highway. One of the things I learned is if you build a road, loggers will come-
Ed Barnhart
Yep.
Yep.
Lex Fridman
And they will start cutting stuff down. Now, from an archeology perspective, if you cut down trees, you get to discover things. But from a protective, very precious rainforest perspective, it’s obviously the opposite way. But it is interesting, I’ve seen where loggers cut through the forest and when they leave, the forest heals itself very quickly.
And they will start cutting stuff down. Now, from an archeology perspective, if you cut down trees, you get to discover things. But from a protective, very precious rainforest perspective, it’s obviously the opposite way. But it is interesting, I’ve seen where loggers cut through the forest and when they leave, the forest heals itself very quickly.
Ed Barnhart
So quickly.
So quickly.
Lex Fridman
And you just think that across decades, you expand that to centuries and you could see how a civilization could be completely swallowed up by the rainforest.
And you just think that across decades, you expand that to centuries and you could see how a civilization could be completely swallowed up by the rainforest.
Ed Barnhart
And it happened for sure in the Amazon. One of the ways that we’re trying to push the frontier of where people were in the Amazon, because yes, the trees and just the biomass have eaten so much evidence, but they’re finding more and more of these places that they call terra preta, which is black earth, and they’re huge swaths of it. So I guess the anthropology term is anthropogenic landscapes. And what they’re saying is that that really dark earth couldn’t have just got that way through natural forest processes, that sometime in the distant past that forest wasn’t there and there was major farming and human activity to the point where they totally turned the soil black and it’s much more enriched.
And it happened for sure in the Amazon. One of the ways that we’re trying to push the frontier of where people were in the Amazon, because yes, the trees and just the biomass have eaten so much evidence, but they’re finding more and more of these places that they call terra preta, which is black earth, and they’re huge swaths of it. So I guess the anthropology term is anthropogenic landscapes. And what they’re saying is that that really dark earth couldn’t have just got that way through natural forest processes, that sometime in the distant past that forest wasn’t there and there was major farming and human activity to the point where they totally turned the soil black and it’s much more enriched.
And when I took a trip into the Amazon, I went from Manaus, up the river, the Black River a couple of days, and went and met some different communities. And I asked them about this black earth, and they were like, “Yeah, that’s why we’re here. Sometimes we move our village, but when we move, we look for the terra preta, and that’s where we’re going to put our village, because that’s a place that all of our gardens work. The other places, they don’t.”
Lex Fridman
One of the things you talked about, literally just you have to ask the right question. And the stories, all the secrets are carried by the people and they’ll tell you.
One of the things you talked about, literally just you have to ask the right question. And the stories, all the secrets are carried by the people and they’ll tell you.
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, there’s so many of them. A thing that excites the world about archeology right now is Gobekli Tepe, and this 10,000, now Karahan Tepe is 11,000. The whole area is called the Tas Tepler. We only found it a couple of decades ago, but it was just an archeologist rowing through the area and ask a sheep herder, “Hey, you guys know where anything ancient is?” “Oh yeah, let me show you this.” And then all of a sudden we’ve got a lost civilization. And the shepherds always knew where it was. Just nobody asked them.
Yeah, there’s so many of them. A thing that excites the world about archeology right now is Gobekli Tepe, and this 10,000, now Karahan Tepe is 11,000. The whole area is called the Tas Tepler. We only found it a couple of decades ago, but it was just an archeologist rowing through the area and ask a sheep herder, “Hey, you guys know where anything ancient is?” “Oh yeah, let me show you this.” And then all of a sudden we’ve got a lost civilization. And the shepherds always knew where it was. Just nobody asked them.
Graham Hancock
Lex Fridman
So speaking of Gobekli Tepe, what do you think about the work of Graham Hancock, who also believes that there’s a lost civilization in the Amazon?
So speaking of Gobekli Tepe, what do you think about the work of Graham Hancock, who also believes that there’s a lost civilization in the Amazon?
Ed Barnhart
Well, I’ve met Graham, and personally I like him. He’s a nice guy, got a nice sense of humor, and I think he’s smart. And I also think he is a very good researcher. He and I are working on the same set of facts. The differences are interpretations. I do not believe Graham’s idea that a single, now lost ancient civilization seeded the rest of them. I just don’t see that on a number of levels, artifact wise, technology wise, art, historical analysis. So I think his research is great. I think that he’s very well-read, in fact, better read than a lot of my colleagues, but his conclusions I disagree with. And he and I have talked about this and had a very civil and normal conversation about it and agree to disagree without spitting any venom at any point in the conversation.
Well, I’ve met Graham, and personally I like him. He’s a nice guy, got a nice sense of humor, and I think he’s smart. And I also think he is a very good researcher. He and I are working on the same set of facts. The differences are interpretations. I do not believe Graham’s idea that a single, now lost ancient civilization seeded the rest of them. I just don’t see that on a number of levels, artifact wise, technology wise, art, historical analysis. So I think his research is great. I think that he’s very well-read, in fact, better read than a lot of my colleagues, but his conclusions I disagree with. And he and I have talked about this and had a very civil and normal conversation about it and agree to disagree without spitting any venom at any point in the conversation.
Lex Fridman
That would be a fun argument to be a fly on the wall for. So he’s proposed that it’s possible that the Amazon jungle is a man-made garden. So it was planted there by advanced ancient civilization. Is there any degree to which that could be possible?
That would be a fun argument to be a fly on the wall for. So he’s proposed that it’s possible that the Amazon jungle is a man-made garden. So it was planted there by advanced ancient civilization. Is there any degree to which that could be possible?
Ed Barnhart
Frankly, I agree with him. It’s just like what I was just talking about. It’s the conclusion part that we differ from.
Frankly, I agree with him. It’s just like what I was just talking about. It’s the conclusion part that we differ from.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Ed Barnhart
But the facts that he’s basing that on are that terra preta are the huge geometric earthworks, are the ever-increasing evidence of them. They are now from the bottom of Bolivia to Guyana. They’re everywhere. Every time we open up the jungle, we find these big works. So yes, there was a vast civilization that was there. How advanced they were is a question and also a perspective thing. Graham really focuses in on what we don’t know and what could be.
But the facts that he’s basing that on are that terra preta are the huge geometric earthworks, are the ever-increasing evidence of them. They are now from the bottom of Bolivia to Guyana. They’re everywhere. Every time we open up the jungle, we find these big works. So yes, there was a vast civilization that was there. How advanced they were is a question and also a perspective thing. Graham really focuses in on what we don’t know and what could be.
Lex Fridman
Just to educate me, what’s the key idea that he’s proposing that you disagree with? Is it it was the level of advancement the civilization was, or how large and centralized it was?
Just to educate me, what’s the key idea that he’s proposing that you disagree with? Is it it was the level of advancement the civilization was, or how large and centralized it was?
Ed Barnhart
My main point of disagreement is that his… And his ideas evolve like everybody’s. No scientist or researcher in anything has an idea at the beginning of their career and holds it till the day they die. His ideas are evolving, but his ideas remain. A core of them are that there was a very advanced single ancient civilization that was utterly destroyed by climactic conditions, and the younger Dryas hypothesis is part of that. Most recently, he used to not say that. Now he’s into this meteor thing, but he believes that that civilization was destroyed, but that members of it escaped this cataclysm and then spread out all over the world to seed all of the world’s civilizations for the next revival.
My main point of disagreement is that his… And his ideas evolve like everybody’s. No scientist or researcher in anything has an idea at the beginning of their career and holds it till the day they die. His ideas are evolving, but his ideas remain. A core of them are that there was a very advanced single ancient civilization that was utterly destroyed by climactic conditions, and the younger Dryas hypothesis is part of that. Most recently, he used to not say that. Now he’s into this meteor thing, but he believes that that civilization was destroyed, but that members of it escaped this cataclysm and then spread out all over the world to seed all of the world’s civilizations for the next revival.
There’s where I disagree with him. I think these were independent civilizations that grew up in their own ways, that they were not seeded by some more advanced civilization from the past, and that they all hold things in common because they have this common ancestry of… In his early books, he suggested it’s Atlantis. I don’t think he suggests that anymore, but he still hangs on to the single advanced, now completely lost civilization. And archeologists, all of our ideas are theories. Very few of them are facts, and we could have the story wrong, but one thing we’re real good at is finding stuff. We find fish scales, so I find it just too big a pill to swallow that there was a civilization that was that technologically advanced and that large that we can’t even find a potsherd from.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and of course, it is a compelling story that there’s a single civilization from which all of this came from, because the alternative is the idea that we came across the Bering Strait from Asia went all the way down to South America and got isolated and created all these marvelous, sophisticated civilizations and ideas, including religious ideas that look similar to other… Everybody has a flood myth.
Yeah, and of course, it is a compelling story that there’s a single civilization from which all of this came from, because the alternative is the idea that we came across the Bering Strait from Asia went all the way down to South America and got isolated and created all these marvelous, sophisticated civilizations and ideas, including religious ideas that look similar to other… Everybody has a flood myth.
Ed Barnhart
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
So there’s a lot of similarities, everybody building pyramids, but there could be a lot of other explanations. And for even if it’s a simple compelling explanation, that has to be evidence for it, and what would that evidence look like?
So there’s a lot of similarities, everybody building pyramids, but there could be a lot of other explanations. And for even if it’s a simple compelling explanation, that has to be evidence for it, and what would that evidence look like?
Ed Barnhart
Well, that’s the bottom line.
Well, that’s the bottom line.
Lex Fridman
That’s tough.
That’s tough.
Ed Barnhart
Everything’s theories were… And as responsible scientists, we’re trying to disprove our theories. We are not supposed to be trying to prove our theories. That’s one more foot out of the science box that archeology often steps. We’re supposed to be disproving what we think is happening, not proving it.
Everything’s theories were… And as responsible scientists, we’re trying to disprove our theories. We are not supposed to be trying to prove our theories. That’s one more foot out of the science box that archeology often steps. We’re supposed to be disproving what we think is happening, not proving it.
Lex Fridman
You don’t want to lean into the mystery too much. It’s such a weird discipline because you’re operating in… It’s really in a dark room. You’re feeling around a dark room. So it’s mostly mystery. I would say a lot of sciences operate in a mostly well-lit room. It’s like a dark corner and you’re figuring out a way to light it. But yeah, in archeology, most of it is a mystery. Right?
You don’t want to lean into the mystery too much. It’s such a weird discipline because you’re operating in… It’s really in a dark room. You’re feeling around a dark room. So it’s mostly mystery. I would say a lot of sciences operate in a mostly well-lit room. It’s like a dark corner and you’re figuring out a way to light it. But yeah, in archeology, most of it is a mystery. Right?
Ed Barnhart
Yes, it’s job security. I like that part. But I do also try to always remind myself that every paradigm shifting idea that humans have ever had began as heresy and lunacy. That guy was crazy up to the second. He was brilliant. And so we got to keep our minds open to the things that sound outlandish, because one of them eventually is going to lead us to the big paradigm shift. And if we are busy burning books of ideas that we don’t like, that’s where we close our minds to the possibility of advancing things.
Yes, it’s job security. I like that part. But I do also try to always remind myself that every paradigm shifting idea that humans have ever had began as heresy and lunacy. That guy was crazy up to the second. He was brilliant. And so we got to keep our minds open to the things that sound outlandish, because one of them eventually is going to lead us to the big paradigm shift. And if we are busy burning books of ideas that we don’t like, that’s where we close our minds to the possibility of advancing things.
Uncontacted tribes
Lex Fridman
I really love that, and I really appreciate that you’re saying that. One of the fascinating things about just the Amazon to me is that there’s still a large number of uncontacted tribes. To rewind back into ancient history, you can imagine all of these tribes that existed in the Amazon that were isolated, very distinct from each other. Can you speak to this, your understanding of these tribes and their history that are still here today?
I really love that, and I really appreciate that you’re saying that. One of the fascinating things about just the Amazon to me is that there’s still a large number of uncontacted tribes. To rewind back into ancient history, you can imagine all of these tribes that existed in the Amazon that were isolated, very distinct from each other. Can you speak to this, your understanding of these tribes and their history that are still here today?
Ed Barnhart
Well, a lot of them are these… By uncontacted, we mean we don’t know anything about these guys. We know roughly where they are, but places like Ecuador have very responsible policies where no one’s allowed to go contact them. So we have a dearth of information. If they walk out of the jungle and talk to us, that’s one thing, but we don’t go out and there looking for them, but they do seem frozen in time, and I don’t think any of us have a good estimation of how long they’ve been like that. But we were saying earlier that humans change based on pressures of their environment. Mother necessity is oftentimes how we invent things or why we change, it’s pressure. And one thing the Amazon is, once you figure out how not to die in it, it’s a paradise of food. Food’s fallen from the sky all the time there, and once you learn to adapt to that environment, you’ve got very little need. There’s no pressure to make anything else. Things are working.
Well, a lot of them are these… By uncontacted, we mean we don’t know anything about these guys. We know roughly where they are, but places like Ecuador have very responsible policies where no one’s allowed to go contact them. So we have a dearth of information. If they walk out of the jungle and talk to us, that’s one thing, but we don’t go out and there looking for them, but they do seem frozen in time, and I don’t think any of us have a good estimation of how long they’ve been like that. But we were saying earlier that humans change based on pressures of their environment. Mother necessity is oftentimes how we invent things or why we change, it’s pressure. And one thing the Amazon is, once you figure out how not to die in it, it’s a paradise of food. Food’s fallen from the sky all the time there, and once you learn to adapt to that environment, you’ve got very little need. There’s no pressure to make anything else. Things are working.
Lex Fridman
So for the modern humans that come across these uncontacted tribes, one of the things they document and notice is the propensity of these tribes for violence. So they get very aggressive in attacking whoever they come across.
So for the modern humans that come across these uncontacted tribes, one of the things they document and notice is the propensity of these tribes for violence. So they get very aggressive in attacking whoever they come across.
Ed Barnhart
And not just foreigners. They attack each other. The Yanomamo are famous for just having never ending feuds with each other.
And not just foreigners. They attack each other. The Yanomamo are famous for just having never ending feuds with each other.
Lex Fridman
What do you think is the philosophy behind that?
What do you think is the philosophy behind that?
Ed Barnhart
I’m a relatively peaceful person, but I’ve got the monster in me like everybody does.
I’m a relatively peaceful person, but I’ve got the monster in me like everybody does.
Ed Barnhart
I’ve got the monster in me, like everybody does. And I think that these, it’s cultural norms that become institutionalized. For the Yąnomamö, they really, part of the right of passage to be a man is to go kill or maim somebody from an outer village. And they go in there, they oftentimes, the way they don’t let inbreeding set in and ruin everybody, not that they think of it scientifically, but they typically go and steal women from far-off communities, and that starts a big fight.
I’ve got the monster in me, like everybody does. And I think that these, it’s cultural norms that become institutionalized. For the Yąnomamö, they really, part of the right of passage to be a man is to go kill or maim somebody from an outer village. And they go in there, they oftentimes, the way they don’t let inbreeding set in and ruin everybody, not that they think of it scientifically, but they typically go and steal women from far-off communities, and that starts a big fight.
Another thing that starts fights, that when nobody even fought, is illness. Illness in the Amazon and all of the ancient Americas wasn’t seen as a biological thing, it was a spiritual thing. So if somebody in your village gets sick, the question is asked, “Well, what spirit is menacing him and who called it out on him?” And then, the rumor starts, “Well, I bet you it was Joe over there in that other community. He’s still pissed off for that time when we stole his daughter, and we ought to go over there and kill Joe, and then he’ll get better.” And so this round of never-ending violence, like Hatfields & McCoys had that thing, and the people of New Guinea also do that. So there are certain areas, mostly wooded areas, now that I think about it, where people just hide out and they attack each other as a cultural institution.
Lex Fridman
It’s such a tricky thing to do, to study an uncontacted tribe, without obviously contacting them, to figure out their language, their philosophy of mind, how they communicate, the hierarchy they operate under.
It’s such a tricky thing to do, to study an uncontacted tribe, without obviously contacting them, to figure out their language, their philosophy of mind, how they communicate, the hierarchy they operate under.
Ed Barnhart
And yeah, there was a fascinating story in Peru, I guess it was probably like eight years ago or something. But there was a ranger from one of the biology stations who, just in the by and by of protecting his area, met one of these uncontacted tribes and befriended someone. Not the whole tribe, but he made some friends who would meet him in the woods, not in their community. And he started to learn their language over a couple years. And so he was this kind of important guy who actually could be the first translator to talk to these people. And one day, a couple of them just came out of the woods, and just plugged him with arrows, and just killed him, and then they went back in the woods. Like, “That’s the one guy who understands what we’re saying, we should kill him and move our village.”
And yeah, there was a fascinating story in Peru, I guess it was probably like eight years ago or something. But there was a ranger from one of the biology stations who, just in the by and by of protecting his area, met one of these uncontacted tribes and befriended someone. Not the whole tribe, but he made some friends who would meet him in the woods, not in their community. And he started to learn their language over a couple years. And so he was this kind of important guy who actually could be the first translator to talk to these people. And one day, a couple of them just came out of the woods, and just plugged him with arrows, and just killed him, and then they went back in the woods. Like, “That’s the one guy who understands what we’re saying, we should kill him and move our village.”
Lex Fridman
So those folks really lean into the, as you said, the monster versus the puppy.
So those folks really lean into the, as you said, the monster versus the puppy.
Ed Barnhart
You know, everybody’s got it, I think. I think we need to listen to our better angels, because if we don’t, we, as a human species, can easily devolve into just using violence against others to get what we want. It’s a daily choice we make not to be savages.
You know, everybody’s got it, I think. I think we need to listen to our better angels, because if we don’t, we, as a human species, can easily devolve into just using violence against others to get what we want. It’s a daily choice we make not to be savages.
Lex Fridman
Which is a fascinating thing to remember. We’re kind of thinking civilized society, we’ve moved past all that, but it can be summoned, like in 1984, the two minutes of hate. With the right words, that primal thing can be summoned, and directed, and lead to a lot of destruction.
Which is a fascinating thing to remember. We’re kind of thinking civilized society, we’ve moved past all that, but it can be summoned, like in 1984, the two minutes of hate. With the right words, that primal thing can be summoned, and directed, and lead to a lot of destruction.
Ed Barnhart
And our sports are really based on taking those kinds of urges and channeling them positive, where somebody’s not dead at the end of it.
And our sports are really based on taking those kinds of urges and channeling them positive, where somebody’s not dead at the end of it.
Maya civilization
Lex Fridman
Yep. So at which point did what we now call the Maya Civilization arise?
Yep. So at which point did what we now call the Maya Civilization arise?
Ed Barnhart
That’s another complicated one, another group living mostly in a jungle that we have barely begun to explore. You know, the truth is a lot of the questions in the Amazon and what we’re talking about now is the Patan and the mountains there. Those aren’t places archeologists want to live, they’re horrible. I mean, I’ve been there. I don’t want to live in a tent and eat rations. I want to live in a nice town. So a lot of the places where the answers are, we still really haven’t gotten there, because it takes a special person to be educated enough to know what they’re looking at, and tough enough to want to be there. I’ve done my tour of duty, I’m now in a nice little podcast studio. But seriously, the Maya, the first hint that we see people who are culturally Maya, very close to where the time period for that Chavin culture, is about 1800 BCE.
That’s another complicated one, another group living mostly in a jungle that we have barely begun to explore. You know, the truth is a lot of the questions in the Amazon and what we’re talking about now is the Patan and the mountains there. Those aren’t places archeologists want to live, they’re horrible. I mean, I’ve been there. I don’t want to live in a tent and eat rations. I want to live in a nice town. So a lot of the places where the answers are, we still really haven’t gotten there, because it takes a special person to be educated enough to know what they’re looking at, and tough enough to want to be there. I’ve done my tour of duty, I’m now in a nice little podcast studio. But seriously, the Maya, the first hint that we see people who are culturally Maya, very close to where the time period for that Chavin culture, is about 1800 BCE.
There’s a culture that’s some called the Mokaya, not Maya, but they’re on the Pacific coast, where Guatemala and Mexico connect. It’s called the Soconusco. And those are the first people that are really going to be culturally Maya, and they’re interacting with the culture that has traditionally been seen as Mexico’s mother culture, which is the Olmec. They’re kind of the same thing as we were talking about in South America, where the Maya, the original Maya, there’s not a whole lot to indicate that they have a religion. But the Olmec have this religion they develop, and they start exporting it. And you see the Maya become more and more involved in the religion that’s being created by the Olmec, who are to the north of them, in the swamps of what we call the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
Lex Fridman
I have a lot of questions to ask here about just natural stupid confusion I have. So first, did the Maya or the Olmec come first, and are they distinct groups? How do you maintain a distinct civilization when you’re so close together?
I have a lot of questions to ask here about just natural stupid confusion I have. So first, did the Maya or the Olmec come first, and are they distinct groups? How do you maintain a distinct civilization when you’re so close together?
Ed Barnhart
I just finished filming a whole thing on the Olmecs and their interaction with the Maya for The Great Courses. I’m thrilled for it to come out next spring. I think they co-evolved. Archeology, in this regard, is the worst enemy of this. So we put these names on cultures, we talk about how they evolve from one to another, we draw these lines where there aren’t any. We make these time periods that a culture magically transforms into somebody with another name, where I’m pretty sure they didn’t care about any of those names. But the Maya and the Olmec are two parts of a larger interaction sphere that’s happening in Mesoamerica, a very dynamic time.
I just finished filming a whole thing on the Olmecs and their interaction with the Maya for The Great Courses. I’m thrilled for it to come out next spring. I think they co-evolved. Archeology, in this regard, is the worst enemy of this. So we put these names on cultures, we talk about how they evolve from one to another, we draw these lines where there aren’t any. We make these time periods that a culture magically transforms into somebody with another name, where I’m pretty sure they didn’t care about any of those names. But the Maya and the Olmec are two parts of a larger interaction sphere that’s happening in Mesoamerica, a very dynamic time.
The Olmec are really bringing the religion part, but the other areas are bringing technology, ceramic technology, making hematite mirrors, making tools out of obsidian and other stone types. So you’ve got the Olmec in the middle, where Mexico gets skinny, and it gets swampy down there. That’s called the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. That’s where the Olmec are. Then, you’ve got the Maya to the east of them. Then, you have the Valley of Oaxaca, where the people called the Zapotecs, they’re rising up. And then, you have the Valley of Mexico, which will eventually become the Aztecs, but not for millennia. All those areas are interacting with each other.
Lex Fridman
Can we just also draw some more lines?
Can we just also draw some more lines?
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, sure.
Yeah, sure.
Lex Fridman
So what is Mesoamerica and what is South America? And what you just said, the Olmecs and the Maya, can we just linger on the geography that we’re talking about here in the… What is this, like 1000 BC?
So what is Mesoamerica and what is South America? And what you just said, the Olmecs and the Maya, can we just linger on the geography that we’re talking about here in the… What is this, like 1000 BC?
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, the time period we’re talking about, where the Olmec are there, 1000 BC is a great midpoint of it. I’d say it starts about 1800 BCE, and by 500 BCE, the Olmec are gone, and a whole new wave of civilization and population increase happened. In terms of Mesoamerica, looking at your map here, I’d say about halfway through the Chihuahua Desert, up there in the top left, that’s about the boundary of Mesoamerica. There’s this big desert where almost nobody lives, and once you get north enough, you get into the ancestral Pueblo people of what’s now America, the Four Corners area. They’re not Mesoamerican, they have different lives.
Yeah, the time period we’re talking about, where the Olmec are there, 1000 BC is a great midpoint of it. I’d say it starts about 1800 BCE, and by 500 BCE, the Olmec are gone, and a whole new wave of civilization and population increase happened. In terms of Mesoamerica, looking at your map here, I’d say about halfway through the Chihuahua Desert, up there in the top left, that’s about the boundary of Mesoamerica. There’s this big desert where almost nobody lives, and once you get north enough, you get into the ancestral Pueblo people of what’s now America, the Four Corners area. They’re not Mesoamerican, they have different lives.
Lex Fridman
Where does modern Mexico end?
Where does modern Mexico end?
Ed Barnhart
Modern Mexico ends, right, you see the name Maya there with the white line around it?
Modern Mexico ends, right, you see the name Maya there with the white line around it?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Ed Barnhart
That’s Guatemala, so Guatemala cuts off most of Mexico from Central America.
That’s Guatemala, so Guatemala cuts off most of Mexico from Central America.
Lex Fridman
Got it.
Got it.
Ed Barnhart
But Mesoamerica only goes about halfway through Honduras, and then it’s really kind of a no man’s land. Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, they really, they’re neither. They’re not Mesoamerica, they’re not South America. They’re more South America, because they’ve got some gold there. But then, basically, you get on the other side of Panama, and you’re fully in South America, with two distinct groups, too. You’ve got the guys that are on the Andes, on the west coast, and then you have the Amazon.
But Mesoamerica only goes about halfway through Honduras, and then it’s really kind of a no man’s land. Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, they really, they’re neither. They’re not Mesoamerica, they’re not South America. They’re more South America, because they’ve got some gold there. But then, basically, you get on the other side of Panama, and you’re fully in South America, with two distinct groups, too. You’ve got the guys that are on the Andes, on the west coast, and then you have the Amazon.
Lex Fridman
So the Andes and the Amazon are very distinct.
So the Andes and the Amazon are very distinct.
Ed Barnhart
Yep.
Yep.
Lex Fridman
So when you refer to the Andean region, is that referring to the Andes and the Amazon, or just the Andes?
So when you refer to the Andean region, is that referring to the Andes and the Amazon, or just the Andes?
Ed Barnhart
Just the Andes and the coast to the Pacific there. That’s Andean civilization.
Just the Andes and the coast to the Pacific there. That’s Andean civilization.
Lex Fridman
So did Maya make it to the Andes, the Andean region?
So did Maya make it to the Andes, the Andean region?
Ed Barnhart
Not that archeology can prove, but it’s almost certain that they interacted with each other. Number one, it’s just, it’s biased to think that these people couldn’t travel as widely as people on the other side of the planet did, but there’s all sorts of hints like that first ceramics I was talking about, that the Maya made, they show up strangely sophisticated technologically already. And down in Ecuador, they had them for 1,000 years before. So a lot of people, myself included, think that the idea of ceramics actually came from South America to the Maya.
Not that archeology can prove, but it’s almost certain that they interacted with each other. Number one, it’s just, it’s biased to think that these people couldn’t travel as widely as people on the other side of the planet did, but there’s all sorts of hints like that first ceramics I was talking about, that the Maya made, they show up strangely sophisticated technologically already. And down in Ecuador, they had them for 1,000 years before. So a lot of people, myself included, think that the idea of ceramics actually came from South America to the Maya.
Lex Fridman
Did the Maya get seeded by the second wave across the Bering Strait, or did that initial wave of people that came and populated South America, were they the ancestors of the Maya? How did the migration happen here? Do we understand that?
Did the Maya get seeded by the second wave across the Bering Strait, or did that initial wave of people that came and populated South America, were they the ancestors of the Maya? How did the migration happen here? Do we understand that?
Ed Barnhart
We’re still piecing it together. You know, I’d be lying if I told you I had the answers. But we do have evidence of Maya stature people. They were small people. Generally speaking, people that grow up in the forest are smaller and people that grow up in the open plains are taller, probably about just generations of people that hit their head on a branch or not.
We’re still piecing it together. You know, I’d be lying if I told you I had the answers. But we do have evidence of Maya stature people. They were small people. Generally speaking, people that grow up in the forest are smaller and people that grow up in the open plains are taller, probably about just generations of people that hit their head on a branch or not.
Lex Fridman
You’re joking, but there could be something to that.
You’re joking, but there could be something to that.
Ed Barnhart
I think there’s some truth to it. I mean, the Pygmies are small and the people on the plains in Africa are big. The North American Indians are tall and the Maya are small. There is definitely a pattern of smaller people in the forests. But anyway, there’s a cave in the Yucatan called Loltun Cave that has hand prints in the cave. It’s somebody who put their hand on the cave and spit charcoal around their hand, like a negative print. We can date that charcoal, and it comes from 10,000 years ago, and the hands are all small. It’s typical Old Mexico. I walked right up to these things and could put my hand… I didn’t mess with them, but I put my hand next to these hands, and they’re all smaller than my Northern European hand, and so either it was a bunch of kids who were in this cave 10,000 years ago, or it was people of Maya stature who did it.
I think there’s some truth to it. I mean, the Pygmies are small and the people on the plains in Africa are big. The North American Indians are tall and the Maya are small. There is definitely a pattern of smaller people in the forests. But anyway, there’s a cave in the Yucatan called Loltun Cave that has hand prints in the cave. It’s somebody who put their hand on the cave and spit charcoal around their hand, like a negative print. We can date that charcoal, and it comes from 10,000 years ago, and the hands are all small. It’s typical Old Mexico. I walked right up to these things and could put my hand… I didn’t mess with them, but I put my hand next to these hands, and they’re all smaller than my Northern European hand, and so either it was a bunch of kids who were in this cave 10,000 years ago, or it was people of Maya stature who did it.
Lex Fridman
It’s so cool that you can date the charcoal, and it’s so cool that 10,000 years ago there are people leaving [inaudible 01:22:37]-
It’s so cool that you can date the charcoal, and it’s so cool that 10,000 years ago there are people leaving [inaudible 01:22:37]-
Ed Barnhart
And actually, we have one that’s I think 2,000 years older now, just a couple years ago, again in Yucatan, in a cave, they found a woman they named Naia now, and she’s like 12,000 years old.
And actually, we have one that’s I think 2,000 years older now, just a couple years ago, again in Yucatan, in a cave, they found a woman they named Naia now, and she’s like 12,000 years old.
Lex Fridman
So the best guess maybe that you have is it goes across the Bering Strait to South America, possibly the Amazon, develop a lot of cool ideas in the Amazon, and started drifting back up into Mesoamerica?
So the best guess maybe that you have is it goes across the Bering Strait to South America, possibly the Amazon, develop a lot of cool ideas in the Amazon, and started drifting back up into Mesoamerica?
Ed Barnhart
Was kind of a co-evolution, the technology of ceramics I think got there through an interaction with-
Was kind of a co-evolution, the technology of ceramics I think got there through an interaction with-
Lex Fridman
See, the interesting thing is that the Maya didn’t really have religion, didn’t have as a vibrant religious set of ideas, and they borrowed it from the Olmec.
See, the interesting thing is that the Maya didn’t really have religion, didn’t have as a vibrant religious set of ideas, and they borrowed it from the Olmec.
Ed Barnhart
I’ve been doing a deep dive on this for this Olmec course that I just did, and it really does seem like these other cultures that have jade, and hematite, and obsidian, the Olmec had none of that stuff. They were living in a swamp, and building things out of dirt, but they were importing those materials from those areas, carving them into all sorts of religious iconography, and then exporting them back to them.
I’ve been doing a deep dive on this for this Olmec course that I just did, and it really does seem like these other cultures that have jade, and hematite, and obsidian, the Olmec had none of that stuff. They were living in a swamp, and building things out of dirt, but they were importing those materials from those areas, carving them into all sorts of religious iconography, and then exporting them back to them.
Lex Fridman
And still, the fanged deity show up [inaudible 01:23:58]-
And still, the fanged deity show up [inaudible 01:23:58]-
Ed Barnhart
No, the fanged deity is nowhere in Central America and Mesoamerica, that’s why… There’s jaguars, there’s jaguar iconography, but it’s not the same thing. This whole jaguar transformer deity does not exist there. They do have a pantheon.
No, the fanged deity is nowhere in Central America and Mesoamerica, that’s why… There’s jaguars, there’s jaguar iconography, but it’s not the same thing. This whole jaguar transformer deity does not exist there. They do have a pantheon.
Lex Fridman
So the Maya, the Olmecs are the interesting peoples of the regions. I’d love to ask questions about who were they? So one question I’m curious about, what was their sense when they looked up at the stars? What was their conception of the cosmos?
So the Maya, the Olmecs are the interesting peoples of the regions. I’d love to ask questions about who were they? So one question I’m curious about, what was their sense when they looked up at the stars? What was their conception of the cosmos?
Ed Barnhart
That’s a question I’ve spent my entire career trying to answer. I think that they saw it as proof of the cyclical nature of life, and certainly, they saw, like every ancient group did, like, “Are those the gods? Why are those things far away?” But I think that the Maya especially looked at it with a much more mathematical mind than most did. And so they watched these things move every night, and if you do that even today, you notice that all the stars move in tandem. They’re just this blanket, they’re like this curtain behind me. They’re the stage upon which some very important players are dancing, and that’s the Moon, the Sun and the planets.
That’s a question I’ve spent my entire career trying to answer. I think that they saw it as proof of the cyclical nature of life, and certainly, they saw, like every ancient group did, like, “Are those the gods? Why are those things far away?” But I think that the Maya especially looked at it with a much more mathematical mind than most did. And so they watched these things move every night, and if you do that even today, you notice that all the stars move in tandem. They’re just this blanket, they’re like this curtain behind me. They’re the stage upon which some very important players are dancing, and that’s the Moon, the Sun and the planets.
There’s five planets we can see visibly. So they started watching, like, “Why are just those seven moving differently than the rest?” And those are the things that they keyed on mathematically. The Sun, of course, was also involved in the agricultural cycle, so that was important in and of itself. But the planets, we can see them coming up with ideas, definitely doing the math, and seeing that there is a repeated cycle, and then coming up with mythology around them, like Venus for them was associated with war, and they had very ritualized times to go to war that had something to do with Venus.
Sometimes, in the classic period Maya, it was the first appearance of Venus as the Morning Star. That was a good time to go to battle with your neighbors. And when it became the post-classic, with Chichén Itzá being the capital of the Yucatan, then it looks like, if you watch Venus day after day, it goes slowly up every day, and then when it hits its highest point as Morning Star in the morning, it goes down to the Earth like three times as fast. All of a sudden, it just shoots down and hits the Earth. And so the people of post-classic Maya civilization saw that as the gods shooting a spear into the Earth, and that was a good time to attack your neighbors. That was like war time, when the spear is going to hit the earth.
Lex Fridman
All right, so this is fascinating. They just had at the foundation, a sense that life, existence at the various timescales is cyclical.
All right, so this is fascinating. They just had at the foundation, a sense that life, existence at the various timescales is cyclical.
Ed Barnhart
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s a starting point, and then you just look out there, and if you’re extremely precise, which is fascinating, how precise they were, you can just measure the cycles.
That’s a starting point, and then you just look out there, and if you’re extremely precise, which is fascinating, how precise they were, you can just measure the cycles.
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, and they did it really well. Now, of course, they are the only ones to develop a fully-elaborated writing system in all of the Americas. The South America had the quipu, but it’s so different than our writing. We’re still trying to figure out what the heck it is. We know there’s math there, too. But they had the ability to take a lifetime worth of measurements and hand it to the next generation, who would then do it more and do it more.
Yeah, and they did it really well. Now, of course, they are the only ones to develop a fully-elaborated writing system in all of the Americas. The South America had the quipu, but it’s so different than our writing. We’re still trying to figure out what the heck it is. We know there’s math there, too. But they had the ability to take a lifetime worth of measurements and hand it to the next generation, who would then do it more and do it more.
That’s how they figured out kind of the Holy Grail of ancient astronomy. How good were they was whether they could see the procession of the equinoxes, the fact that we’re just barely wobbling, and there’s a 26,000-year period where the stars as that backdrop will spin all the way around and come back. It’s 26,000 years. But the Maya we’re able to figure out, “Wait, it’s moving one degree every 72 years,” and did a calculation based on where it should be in the ancient past, and they were using constellations. They’re showing us they know by saying like, “This planet’s in this constellation right now, and 33,000 years ago, it would be in this constellation.”
Lex Fridman
It’s just fascinating that they were able to figure this out. I would love to sort understand the details of the scientific community, if you can call it that.
It’s just fascinating that they were able to figure this out. I would love to sort understand the details of the scientific community, if you can call it that.
Ed Barnhart
I think we absolutely could, and that’s actually one of the things that I’m hoping to move the needle on in my generation, with my career, is to give these cultures the respect they deserve, as standing toe to toe with the rest of our ancient civilizations we respect. There are things that should be called science that are not being called science at the moment. Their math is incredible, their hydraulic engineering is incredible, their chemistry is incredible, and so I hope to talk about these things differently, as a way to get people to recognize the achievements in a different way.
I think we absolutely could, and that’s actually one of the things that I’m hoping to move the needle on in my generation, with my career, is to give these cultures the respect they deserve, as standing toe to toe with the rest of our ancient civilizations we respect. There are things that should be called science that are not being called science at the moment. Their math is incredible, their hydraulic engineering is incredible, their chemistry is incredible, and so I hope to talk about these things differently, as a way to get people to recognize the achievements in a different way.
Mayan calendar
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean, unquestionably incredible scientific work in the astronomy sense, especially here. Can you speak to all the sophisticated aspects of the Mayan calendar that they’ve developed?
Yeah, I mean, unquestionably incredible scientific work in the astronomy sense, especially here. Can you speak to all the sophisticated aspects of the Mayan calendar that they’ve developed?
Ed Barnhart
Don’t know, you got another five hours?
Don’t know, you got another five hours?
Lex Fridman
Let’s go.
Let’s go.
Ed Barnhart
No, I’m kidding.
No, I’m kidding.
Lex Fridman
I should say that you also gave me the 2024 Mayan calendar.
I should say that you also gave me the 2024 Mayan calendar.
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, I do this just to show the world that calendar system is evergreen. It can go into the future or the past for billions of years in the system they made, just like our system is.
Yeah, I do this just to show the world that calendar system is evergreen. It can go into the future or the past for billions of years in the system they made, just like our system is.
Lex Fridman
So can you speak to the three components here as I’m reading? The Tzolk’in, the Haab, and the Long Count, what are these fascinating components of the calendar?
So can you speak to the three components here as I’m reading? The Tzolk’in, the Haab, and the Long Count, what are these fascinating components of the calendar?
Ed Barnhart
It’s neat how obsessed… They were really math nerds. It wasn’t good enough for them to just make one cycle to describe time. They had all these cycles that interlocked into each other, like cogs in a machine, though they never thought of it like that. But the Tzolk’in is their oldest one, and the one that still endures today. There are millions of Maya people that are living their lives based on a 260-day count. No weeks, no months. It’s just 13 numbers combined with 20 day names, for a total of 260 days, and then it goes again.
It’s neat how obsessed… They were really math nerds. It wasn’t good enough for them to just make one cycle to describe time. They had all these cycles that interlocked into each other, like cogs in a machine, though they never thought of it like that. But the Tzolk’in is their oldest one, and the one that still endures today. There are millions of Maya people that are living their lives based on a 260-day count. No weeks, no months. It’s just 13 numbers combined with 20 day names, for a total of 260 days, and then it goes again.
Everybody in the highlands knows what their birthday is in that calendar, knows what it means about their personality and the kind of jobs that they’re supposed to do. Each one of those days has their own spirit and what’s supposed to happen in those days. The Maya collectively call them the Mom, the Grandmother, Grandfather spirits, and they talk to each one of those days, and they pray to them. There’s now an association of some 8,000 people that are called [inaudible 01:31:33], that are daykeepers who are keeping the days, and they’re also like community psychologists, almost. People come to them and say, “You know, my life is mixed up. What’s wrong here?” “Well, let’s ask the Mom. Okay, well, it looks like you’re not doing this or that, or you know what, you’re an accountant? You’re not supposed to be an accountant. You’re supposed to be a midwife. What are you doing? You’re living your life wrong. You’re a Kibʼ. You need to start being a Kibʼ person.”
Lex Fridman
So they take extremely seriously the day on which you’re born, what that means, the spirit that embodies that day?
So they take extremely seriously the day on which you’re born, what that means, the spirit that embodies that day?
Ed Barnhart
Right. Like, I’m Kibʼ, I’m 13, Kibʼ, and it’s funny how accurate a lot of them are. Mine is basically, is I’m an irresponsible husband and parent, but people like me, so my family still prospers. Like, well, God, that’s horribly accurate.
Right. Like, I’m Kibʼ, I’m 13, Kibʼ, and it’s funny how accurate a lot of them are. Mine is basically, is I’m an irresponsible husband and parent, but people like me, so my family still prospers. Like, well, God, that’s horribly accurate.
Lex Fridman
I mean, some of it is also the chicken or the egg. If you truly believe, if you’ve structured society where this calendar is truly sacred, then it kind of like, the spirit does manifest itself in the life of the people that is born on that spirit’s day.
I mean, some of it is also the chicken or the egg. If you truly believe, if you’ve structured society where this calendar is truly sacred, then it kind of like, the spirit does manifest itself in the life of the people that is born on that spirit’s day.
Ed Barnhart
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting.
It’s interesting.
Ed Barnhart
And the Maya really feel this, in this system. So that’s the core system. This 260-day calendar was the very first calendar they made thousands of years ago, and it’s the one that’s most important today.
And the Maya really feel this, in this system. So that’s the core system. This 260-day calendar was the very first calendar they made thousands of years ago, and it’s the one that’s most important today.
Lex Fridman
Why 260 days, by the way? Is there a reasoning behind it?
Why 260 days, by the way? Is there a reasoning behind it?
Ed Barnhart
Most Maya agree with this today, and who knows what the original architects, thousands of years ago were thinking, but it’s nine months, it’s the human gestation period. So if you conceived on the day 13, monkey, chances are your kid’s coming out on or near 13, monkey, and I think it’s beautiful. I mean, if that’s right, that means the Maya and the people of Mesoamerica will all share it together, when they thought about, “We need a count of time for us,” they didn’t look up into the heavens, they looked into their bodies. “What’s the first cycle that we actually go through as humans?” and they picked this nine-month thing. It really is our cycle, and no other culture on the planet looked inside themselves to create their calendar like that.
Most Maya agree with this today, and who knows what the original architects, thousands of years ago were thinking, but it’s nine months, it’s the human gestation period. So if you conceived on the day 13, monkey, chances are your kid’s coming out on or near 13, monkey, and I think it’s beautiful. I mean, if that’s right, that means the Maya and the people of Mesoamerica will all share it together, when they thought about, “We need a count of time for us,” they didn’t look up into the heavens, they looked into their bodies. “What’s the first cycle that we actually go through as humans?” and they picked this nine-month thing. It really is our cycle, and no other culture on the planet looked inside themselves to create their calendar like that.
Lex Fridman
So that’s the oldest one and the sacred one that still carries through to today. What’s the second one, the Haab?
So that’s the oldest one and the sacred one that still carries through to today. What’s the second one, the Haab?
Ed Barnhart
The Haab is the solar calendar, the one that everybody on the planet eventually comes up with. We know it’s second, though, because when they start talking about it, they use all the symbols and the numbers from the 260 one. They say, “Well, we need a solar one, too. Let’s just keep counting this another 105 days, and we’ll get to 365.”
The Haab is the solar calendar, the one that everybody on the planet eventually comes up with. We know it’s second, though, because when they start talking about it, they use all the symbols and the numbers from the 260 one. They say, “Well, we need a solar one, too. Let’s just keep counting this another 105 days, and we’ll get to 365.”
Lex Fridman
Oh, interesting. They kind of carry the same.
Oh, interesting. They kind of carry the same.
Ed Barnhart
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Got it, got it, got it, got it. And that’s useful, for all the sort of agriculture, all those kind of reasons?
Got it, got it, got it, got it. And that’s useful, for all the sort of agriculture, all those kind of reasons?
Ed Barnhart
Right. Though, interestingly, they never put a leap year in. The Haab is also called the vague year, because it’s just 365, which means every year, they’re off a quarter of a day, and eventually, it starts really adding up. In fact, it’s even caused modern problems. In this calendar here, I just do the straight math from 1,000 years ago. And so I place the beginning of the solar year differently than some Maya groups do, especially the guys in the highlands of Eastern Guatemala. They write me nasty emails saying, “I don’t know what time the year is,” but their relatives changed it in the 1950s, because their agricultural cycle was so far off. They moved it 60 days back to make it in the spring again, but it drifts, which is strange, because it’s not a very good thing for the agricultural cycle. It’s one of these mysteries we still don’t have an explanation for.
Right. Though, interestingly, they never put a leap year in. The Haab is also called the vague year, because it’s just 365, which means every year, they’re off a quarter of a day, and eventually, it starts really adding up. In fact, it’s even caused modern problems. In this calendar here, I just do the straight math from 1,000 years ago. And so I place the beginning of the solar year differently than some Maya groups do, especially the guys in the highlands of Eastern Guatemala. They write me nasty emails saying, “I don’t know what time the year is,” but their relatives changed it in the 1950s, because their agricultural cycle was so far off. They moved it 60 days back to make it in the spring again, but it drifts, which is strange, because it’s not a very good thing for the agricultural cycle. It’s one of these mysteries we still don’t have an explanation for.
Lex Fridman
So that’s the Haab, and then what’s the Long Count?
So that’s the Haab, and then what’s the Long Count?
Ed Barnhart
The Long Count’s their really mysterious, cool one, because it’s a linear count of days, which are not like them. It’s a bunch of cycles, like ours. You know, our weeks are a cycle, our months are a cycle, but it’s weird in that its estimation of the year in the Long Count system is only 360 days, so it’s miserably off a solar year. They count in base 20, so like we count in 10s, we’re decimal, they count in base 20 vigesimal.
The Long Count’s their really mysterious, cool one, because it’s a linear count of days, which are not like them. It’s a bunch of cycles, like ours. You know, our weeks are a cycle, our months are a cycle, but it’s weird in that its estimation of the year in the Long Count system is only 360 days, so it’s miserably off a solar year. They count in base 20, so like we count in 10s, we’re decimal, they count in base 20 vigesimal.
And so it should be there’s 1s, there’s 20s, there’s 400s, there’s 8,000s, there’s 160,000s. It goes just like our 10s, 100s, 1,000s, 10,000s, but it’s times 20. So they have days, months of 20 days, and then they have these years that should be, by their math, 400, but it’s only 360. And that throws the whole thing out of whack going further up. Then, they have a 20-year period and a 400- year period. 400 years to their calendar, but by that time, it’s only 396 years in our reckoning. So it’s mysterious that it’s… Why did they tweak it at the year to be only 360 days? That doesn’t follow any astronomy, that’s not the human cycle.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but it’s interesting that they build up towards thinking about very long periods of time, like baktuns is 144,000 days.
Yeah, but it’s interesting that they build up towards thinking about very long periods of time, like baktuns is 144,000 days.
Ed Barnhart
Right, ar a baktuns is 400 of the Long Count’s years, so it’s kind of like our millennium. You know, we think it’s a big deal when we hit a millennium or a century. They have a 20-year period that they do a lot of celebrations on, called a k’atun, and then they have the 400 baktun, which is the big one. That’s like their millennium, and 13 of those baktuns occurred in the creation before us. They also think that the world has had multiple creations. They’re not alone in that. There’s lots of ancient civilizations who say that, but we’re technically in the fourth creation.
Right, ar a baktuns is 400 of the Long Count’s years, so it’s kind of like our millennium. You know, we think it’s a big deal when we hit a millennium or a century. They have a 20-year period that they do a lot of celebrations on, called a k’atun, and then they have the 400 baktun, which is the big one. That’s like their millennium, and 13 of those baktuns occurred in the creation before us. They also think that the world has had multiple creations. They’re not alone in that. There’s lots of ancient civilizations who say that, but we’re technically in the fourth creation.
And they have a creation story called the and the Popol Vuh, and the Popol Vuh is clear as day that the third creation ends with the help of these heroes called the Hero Twins, and the fourth creation begins. And so on the Maya monuments, we see them doing the math through the Long Count, and we can calculate it back very exactly. It happened, the fourth creation started on August 11th 3114 BC. And it doesn’t say it’s day one, it says it’s the last day of the 13th baktun of the third creation, which leads us to believe that a creation is only 13 baktuns long.
Lex Fridman
Right, and this would be the fourth creation? The calendar starts-
Right, and this would be the fourth creation? The calendar starts-
Ed Barnhart
This is the fourth creation. But if you do the math, going from 3114 BC, and count 13 baktuns forward, you get to 2012.
This is the fourth creation. But if you do the math, going from 3114 BC, and count 13 baktuns forward, you get to 2012.
Lex Fridman
And hence, the very popular notion, the 2012… Whenever that was December, something like-
And hence, the very popular notion, the 2012… Whenever that was December, something like-
Ed Barnhart
December 21st 2012.
December 21st 2012.
Lex Fridman
… will be the end of the world.
… will be the end of the world.
Ed Barnhart
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
So can you explain this?
So can you explain this?
Ed Barnhart
Those were very fruitful years for me. I had so many lectures around the country that it’s like Garrett Morris in Saturday Night Live. The apocalypse was very, very good to me.
Those were very fruitful years for me. I had so many lectures around the country that it’s like Garrett Morris in Saturday Night Live. The apocalypse was very, very good to me.
Lex Fridman
Ah, yeah, but that is pretty interesting. So technically, it would be, what, in the fifth? No.
Ah, yeah, but that is pretty interesting. So technically, it would be, what, in the fifth? No.
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, technically we’d be in the fifth, though my argument was that, actually, if you look through all the corpus of Maya mathematics and calendars, they never say anything like that. In fact, there’s a handful of dates that tell us that the fourth creation does continue farther on, that that baktun place should have 20 baktuns in it, like their counting system would dictate, not 13. And there’s a place in Palenque, there’s a place in the Dresden Codex, and one other place I’m forgetting, that all talk about time after 2012. So how does that happen? It’s a conflict.
Yeah, technically we’d be in the fifth, though my argument was that, actually, if you look through all the corpus of Maya mathematics and calendars, they never say anything like that. In fact, there’s a handful of dates that tell us that the fourth creation does continue farther on, that that baktun place should have 20 baktuns in it, like their counting system would dictate, not 13. And there’s a place in Palenque, there’s a place in the Dresden Codex, and one other place I’m forgetting, that all talk about time after 2012. So how does that happen? It’s a conflict.
Lex Fridman
Is there supposed to be an overlap of the… So it’s like 13 is the core of it, and it’s 20 long?
Is there supposed to be an overlap of the… So it’s like 13 is the core of it, and it’s 20 long?
Ed Barnhart
They love the number 13, it’s all over the place. It’s a magic number to them. My explanation, which I admit is not very solid, but I think that the magical deeds of the Hero Twins, in their creation story, at the end of the third creation, hit the magical reset button, and that it just restarted time right there, because of their magic, but that was not to say that the natural baktun cycle should be 13. And there are certain texts that go way forward in time or way backward in time, and whenever they want to do that, there are higher increments than just the baktun.
They love the number 13, it’s all over the place. It’s a magic number to them. My explanation, which I admit is not very solid, but I think that the magical deeds of the Hero Twins, in their creation story, at the end of the third creation, hit the magical reset button, and that it just restarted time right there, because of their magic, but that was not to say that the natural baktun cycle should be 13. And there are certain texts that go way forward in time or way backward in time, and whenever they want to do that, there are higher increments than just the baktun.
Above that, there’s the piktun, then there’s the kalabatun, then there’s alawatun, and it goes on and on. And these are like 160,000 years, huge increments of time. Whenever they want to do that, and they talk about a long period of time, they start putting 13s in all of those increments, those higher increments. And I think what they’re saying is they’re making an esoteric statement about the never-ending nature of time. That’s what I think they’re telling us in those texts, that time goes on forever, magically.
Lex Fridman
But they still had a conception that it didn’t go on forever before, right? That there was other civilizations that came before in there, and this is the fourth creation?
But they still had a conception that it didn’t go on forever before, right? That there was other civilizations that came before in there, and this is the fourth creation?
Ed Barnhart
This is the fourth creation, and the gods made everybody. The first ones made of mud and they melted. The second ones were made of sticks, but they were jerks to the animals. The third ones were like us, but flawed in some other way. And then, we’re finally made of the blood of the gods and corn. We’re made out of corn, so we’re perfect. And as it explains to us, the Popol Vuh does, we got it right this time. There’s no reason to believe that this creation has a set duration.
This is the fourth creation, and the gods made everybody. The first ones made of mud and they melted. The second ones were made of sticks, but they were jerks to the animals. The third ones were like us, but flawed in some other way. And then, we’re finally made of the blood of the gods and corn. We’re made out of corn, so we’re perfect. And as it explains to us, the Popol Vuh does, we got it right this time. There’s no reason to believe that this creation has a set duration.
One of the weird things is that the Aztecs, who we talked to a lot at contact, they also had the concept of multiple creations before us, but they were real clear to the Spanish that they weren’t all the same time element. Some of them were in the three hundreds of years, some of them were in the seven hundreds of years, but they were not the same time period. So our mathematical logic that if the third creation was 13, this one must be third creation, or also be 13, it’s in direct opposition to what the Aztecs told us about the nature of creations. They’re different time periods.
Lex Fridman
Why do you think there was the myth of the previous creations? Did they have some kind of long, multi-generational memory of prior civilizations?
Why do you think there was the myth of the previous creations? Did they have some kind of long, multi-generational memory of prior civilizations?
Ed Barnhart
It may have had some echo in the flood myths.
It may have had some echo in the flood myths.
Lex Fridman
Right, so same? It’s the same kind of major myths carried through long periods of time?
Right, so same? It’s the same kind of major myths carried through long periods of time?
Ed Barnhart
There’s a lot of different opinions about it. And if they were all 13, if we have 5 creations, like the Aztecs said, and they were all 13, they would come up to roughly 25,000 something years, which is very close to that processional cycle. So some people are like, “They designed it all to be one completion of the procession of the equinoxes.” I don’t believe that one, but that one sure sounds good, doesn’t it?
There’s a lot of different opinions about it. And if they were all 13, if we have 5 creations, like the Aztecs said, and they were all 13, they would come up to roughly 25,000 something years, which is very close to that processional cycle. So some people are like, “They designed it all to be one completion of the procession of the equinoxes.” I don’t believe that one, but that one sure sounds good, doesn’t it?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Ed Barnhart
That’s going to get a lot of internet hits.
That’s going to get a lot of internet hits.
Flood myths
Lex Fridman
And one of the things I do obviously wonder about is why-
And one of the things I do obviously wonder about is why-
Lex Fridman
Wonder about is why the flood myth is part of most societies and most religions.
Wonder about is why the flood myth is part of most societies and most religions.
Ed Barnhart
I think that one’s pretty easy. It’s the end of the ice age, when the bathtub filled back up.
I think that one’s pretty easy. It’s the end of the ice age, when the bathtub filled back up.
Lex Fridman
So it’s just the ice age bathtub refilling.
So it’s just the ice age bathtub refilling.
Ed Barnhart
It’s the seas filling back up.
It’s the seas filling back up.
Lex Fridman
And they, without really understanding what happened, they just carried that story.
And they, without really understanding what happened, they just carried that story.
Ed Barnhart
Everybody knows that everybody’s nice coastal village went under water and they had to seek higher ground.
Everybody knows that everybody’s nice coastal village went under water and they had to seek higher ground.
Lex Fridman
And then just like people talking about the weather, everybody was talking about the weather for many generations as the sea level was going up, and then that myth carried.
And then just like people talking about the weather, everybody was talking about the weather for many generations as the sea level was going up, and then that myth carried.
Ed Barnhart
“Why do we live here, grandpa?” “Well, we used to live over there, but then the water came.”
“Why do we live here, grandpa?” “Well, we used to live over there, but then the water came.”
Lex Fridman
And then many grandpas later is just kind of permeates every idea.
And then many grandpas later is just kind of permeates every idea.
Ed Barnhart
It becomes mythology, but global mythology. So that one, there’s a lot of things I don’t have a reasonable explanation for, but the flood myth is almost certainly the rise in sea level.
It becomes mythology, but global mythology. So that one, there’s a lot of things I don’t have a reasonable explanation for, but the flood myth is almost certainly the rise in sea level.
Lex Fridman
So this idea that every day represents, carries a spirit. There’s modern day astrology. Most people kind of consider astrology this maybe a bit unscientific woo-woo type of set of beliefs, but do you think there’s some wisdom that astrology carries? From your scholarship of the Maya calendar, do you think if we carry that to the astrological perspective on the world, do you think there’s some wisdom there?
So this idea that every day represents, carries a spirit. There’s modern day astrology. Most people kind of consider astrology this maybe a bit unscientific woo-woo type of set of beliefs, but do you think there’s some wisdom that astrology carries? From your scholarship of the Maya calendar, do you think if we carry that to the astrological perspective on the world, do you think there’s some wisdom there?
Ed Barnhart
I don’t know. I have a woo-woo part of me. I would like to believe that stuff. But I don’t think as a scientist, I cannot come up with a biological scientific reason why that would be true. And when you look at it objectively, I mean really? Is everybody born with the sign Scorpio a moody person? That’s just objectively not true.
I don’t know. I have a woo-woo part of me. I would like to believe that stuff. But I don’t think as a scientist, I cannot come up with a biological scientific reason why that would be true. And when you look at it objectively, I mean really? Is everybody born with the sign Scorpio a moody person? That’s just objectively not true.
But it is funny how oftentimes these Maya horoscopes, for lack of a better word, do hit the mark. There was some student who surveyed like 300 people with the app I made and asked them about their Greek sign and their Maya sign, and his conclusion for his term paper was that the Maya one was working way better, which that’s fascinating. At least that’s fun. But no, I think I’m too much of a scientist to believe that. I just don’t have any foundation in science that would allow us to believe that the month in which we were born in a cycle sets our personality and destiny.
Lex Fridman
I agree. And yet there’s so much mystery all around us that … What I do like is the inbuilt humility to that worldview, that there’s this whole, you can call it a spiritual world, but a world that we don’t quite understand. And then you can wonder about what is the wisdom that that world carries. And then you can construct all kinds of systems to try to interpret that, and then there is where the human hubris can come in. But it’s good to be humbled by how little we know, I suppose.
I agree. And yet there’s so much mystery all around us that … What I do like is the inbuilt humility to that worldview, that there’s this whole, you can call it a spiritual world, but a world that we don’t quite understand. And then you can wonder about what is the wisdom that that world carries. And then you can construct all kinds of systems to try to interpret that, and then there is where the human hubris can come in. But it’s good to be humbled by how little we know, I suppose.
Ed Barnhart
I do love the mysteries of the world. And I would love to find an ancient civilization, but I don’t want to solve the mysteries of the world. I think they’re one of the things that make life worth living.
I do love the mysteries of the world. And I would love to find an ancient civilization, but I don’t want to solve the mysteries of the world. I think they’re one of the things that make life worth living.
Lex Fridman
That’s true. That’s true. You mentioned the Maya writing system. What are some interesting aspects of their language that they’ve used in the written language that they used?
That’s true. That’s true. You mentioned the Maya writing system. What are some interesting aspects of their language that they’ve used in the written language that they used?
Ed Barnhart
Well, one of the things that confound me as a guy who’s spent a better portion of my life studying it, I had the honor of being the student of Linda Schele right here at the University of Texas at Austin. She got the group together who broke the Maya code of hieroglyphics in the 1970s. So I learned from the best and loved every minute of it. I miss Linda.
Well, one of the things that confound me as a guy who’s spent a better portion of my life studying it, I had the honor of being the student of Linda Schele right here at the University of Texas at Austin. She got the group together who broke the Maya code of hieroglyphics in the 1970s. So I learned from the best and loved every minute of it. I miss Linda.
Lex Fridman
Can you speak to that code actually, the hieroglyphic code and what it takes to break it?
Can you speak to that code actually, the hieroglyphic code and what it takes to break it?
Ed Barnhart
Oh boy, what a thing. We had kind of a Rosetta Stone. We had a page out of Diego de Landa’s book. A priest who was converting the Maya in Yucatan asked his informants about their writing system and what every sound meant. And he was convinced they had an alphabet like we do. So he got this Maya guy, sat down in Spanish, and he said, “Okay, you’re going to write all the symbols right here in my book. Write an ah here, write a be here, write a ce here.” And that guy just wrote all of the sounds that the priest told him to write. They were actually syllables. They were vowel consonant combinations. They weren’t an alphabet, but that turned into our Rosetta Stone of sorts.
Oh boy, what a thing. We had kind of a Rosetta Stone. We had a page out of Diego de Landa’s book. A priest who was converting the Maya in Yucatan asked his informants about their writing system and what every sound meant. And he was convinced they had an alphabet like we do. So he got this Maya guy, sat down in Spanish, and he said, “Okay, you’re going to write all the symbols right here in my book. Write an ah here, write a be here, write a ce here.” And that guy just wrote all of the sounds that the priest told him to write. They were actually syllables. They were vowel consonant combinations. They weren’t an alphabet, but that turned into our Rosetta Stone of sorts.
The big key is that the Maya still speak that same language. There are millions of Maya people who are speaking a version of Maya. Now there’s where I get confused, that we’ve got a single writing system that is intelligible, we’ve broken the code, so we know that it’s basically the same writing system from the top of the Yucatan into Guatemala and El Salvador. But we have 33 Maya languages today that are mutually unintelligible. And we backwards project the language of what they spoke back then that the glyphs are in to something called Chʼoltiʼ, which is a combination of Chʼortiʼ and Ch’ol, two of those languages.
But it doesn’t work for me at all. If there was one language, maybe two back then, how did it flower into 33 mutually unintelligible languages in just 500 years during acculturation and horrible infectious diseases that killed 90% of the population? How did that happen? So we’re missing something huge here. I think it’s more like Chinese, where Chinese letters, writing can be read in multiple languages and still understood. I don’t know exactly the mechanics of how that would happen, but it just seems impossible that there are more languages, not less languages, in the Maya area after the last 500 years that they’ve been through.
Lex Fridman
So you think that there’s some kind of process of either rapidly generating dialects or there always has been these dialects, or I should say they’re distinct languages, even though there was a common writing system?
So you think that there’s some kind of process of either rapidly generating dialects or there always has been these dialects, or I should say they’re distinct languages, even though there was a common writing system?
Ed Barnhart
There must have been a way that multiple languages understood the same writing system. Or maybe there was something like Latin. You know how there was a period in Europe where most people were illiterate and there was this priesthood who all understood Latin and they wrote in Latin? Maybe the hieroglyphs represent a kind of Latin in the ancient Maya world.
There must have been a way that multiple languages understood the same writing system. Or maybe there was something like Latin. You know how there was a period in Europe where most people were illiterate and there was this priesthood who all understood Latin and they wrote in Latin? Maybe the hieroglyphs represent a kind of Latin in the ancient Maya world.
Lex Fridman
But we don’t really know, and there’s not clear evidence to fill in the gaps of how it’s possible to have that.
But we don’t really know, and there’s not clear evidence to fill in the gaps of how it’s possible to have that.
Ed Barnhart
Right. But we did realize, it was actually a Russian scholar named Yuri Knorozov who broke the code. The Americans and the Europeans were absolutely sure that the written language was a dead language. But Yuri not knowing any of that, not being filled with all of those thoughts from America and Europe, went about it in the way that he was taught in his grad school in Moscow and just went to the dictionaries. And he looked at Yucatec language that they’re speaking today, and he applied it to the symbol system, and he knew that there were certain sounds. He used Landa’s alphabet.
Right. But we did realize, it was actually a Russian scholar named Yuri Knorozov who broke the code. The Americans and the Europeans were absolutely sure that the written language was a dead language. But Yuri not knowing any of that, not being filled with all of those thoughts from America and Europe, went about it in the way that he was taught in his grad school in Moscow and just went to the dictionaries. And he looked at Yucatec language that they’re speaking today, and he applied it to the symbol system, and he knew that there were certain sounds. He used Landa’s alphabet.
His two key examples were a picture of a dog with a symbol over it and a picture of a turkey with a symbol over it. And the dog, a dog in Yucatec is tzul. So he saw two symbols and he said, “This one’s probably tzul and this one’s ul”. And then the Turkey was kutz, so it would be ku ending in tz. And he showed how, look, this is, this is tzul. Those two things that should be tz are the same symbol. And that began this process of unraveling the syllables that we’re still working on today.
Lex Fridman
That’s fascinating. Just that decoding process is fascinating. How do you even figure that out? And there’s probably still, are you aware of any written languages that haven’t been decoded yet?
That’s fascinating. Just that decoding process is fascinating. How do you even figure that out? And there’s probably still, are you aware of any written languages that haven’t been decoded yet?
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, there’s a number of them. There’s Easter Island script. I was just talking to, we’ve apparently made a few advances there now. It’s called Rongorono. And we only have about maybe 25 examples of texts, but we’re beginning to break that.
Yeah, there’s a number of them. There’s Easter Island script. I was just talking to, we’ve apparently made a few advances there now. It’s called Rongorono. And we only have about maybe 25 examples of texts, but we’re beginning to break that.
There’s also, the big one is Harappan. For a long time we used to say there were five independent scripts on the planet, and those were Chinese, Cuneiform, which is Mesopotamian, Egyptian, Maya, and then Harappan, which is from Northern India. That’s the only one that we’ve never cracked. And now all the epigraphers, the people, that’s the term, epigraphy is translating these languages, they’re all ganging up on Harappan and want to kick it off the list because we can’t break it. It had a big enough symbol set, but no one’s been able to crack it. And now they’re saying it’s just an elaborate symbol set and doesn’t reflect the spoken word.
Lex Fridman
That’s a hypothesis, which would explain why it’s so difficult to break.
That’s a hypothesis, which would explain why it’s so difficult to break.
Ed Barnhart
But we could just be faced with a quitter generation. Maybe somebody will pick up the baton next generation.
But we could just be faced with a quitter generation. Maybe somebody will pick up the baton next generation.
Lex Fridman
Kids these days.
Kids these days.
Ed Barnhart
The other one that fascinates me is from the Americas. It’s the quipu. The Inca had the quipu, this knotted string records, but it was definitely encoding more than just math. We know the math. I can do the math quipus and figure out what they’re totaling of things. Yeah, there’s a quipu right there.
The other one that fascinates me is from the Americas. It’s the quipu. The Inca had the quipu, this knotted string records, but it was definitely encoding more than just math. We know the math. I can do the math quipus and figure out what they’re totaling of things. Yeah, there’s a quipu right there.
Lex Fridman
“Quipu are recording devices fashioned from strings historically used by a number of cultures in the region of Andean South America. A quipu usually consists of cotton or camelid fiber strings.” So there’s a set of strings and they’re supposed to what, to be saying something?
“Quipu are recording devices fashioned from strings historically used by a number of cultures in the region of Andean South America. A quipu usually consists of cotton or camelid fiber strings.” So there’s a set of strings and they’re supposed to what, to be saying something?
Ed Barnhart
There’s one long string that the little ones dangle off of. And each one of the dangling strings have sets of knots on them. And the knots, some of them are mathematical quipus, and those, we can just do the math. We can prove that it’s math.
There’s one long string that the little ones dangle off of. And each one of the dangling strings have sets of knots on them. And the knots, some of them are mathematical quipus, and those, we can just do the math. We can prove that it’s math.
They also encoded language in there. They had entire libraries in Cusco where Spanish conquistadors were brought through, and the caretakers of the libraries would just, they’d say, “Pull that one down, read that one to me.” And he’d pull it out and just read a history of something that happened 200 years earlier. So it was definitely writing.
But in the 1570s, one head of the church there had all of the people that could read them called quipucamayocs, gathered up, had them read all of their quipus and transcribe them into Spanish books, and then had the quipus burned and those people murdered.
Lex Fridman
Well, there you go.
Well, there you go.
Ed Barnhart
And so we can’t break the code still today, but we know it was absolutely a written language. Though it wasn’t written, it was weaved or knotted.
And so we can’t break the code still today, but we know it was absolutely a written language. Though it wasn’t written, it was weaved or knotted.
Lex Fridman
And there’s still some quipus available that could be-
And there’s still some quipus available that could be-
Ed Barnhart
I think now we’ve just crossed the 1,000 mark. So we have 1,000 quipus. There’s enough to break the code, and I think this generation might be the one that does it.
I think now we’ve just crossed the 1,000 mark. So we have 1,000 quipus. There’s enough to break the code, and I think this generation might be the one that does it.
Lex Fridman
It’s sad that so few have survived. 1,000 is good, but its-
It’s sad that so few have survived. 1,000 is good, but its-
Ed Barnhart
But see, Peru has barely scratched the surface with archeology. There’s so much out there. There was a priest I read about named Diego de Porres, who was one of the early people in Peru converting communities. And his chronicle is real clear that he wanted to teach this community of 3,000 people all the Spanish prayers, the important ones for them to be converted into Christianity. And he had the community’s quipucamayocs knot quipus for each person that told them that they could read them out and memorize the prayers. And if they were caught without their quipu in town, they were flogged. So he had 3,000 of the same quipu made and handed out to this community. If we find that community and find its cemetery, there is our Rosetta Stone.
But see, Peru has barely scratched the surface with archeology. There’s so much out there. There was a priest I read about named Diego de Porres, who was one of the early people in Peru converting communities. And his chronicle is real clear that he wanted to teach this community of 3,000 people all the Spanish prayers, the important ones for them to be converted into Christianity. And he had the community’s quipucamayocs knot quipus for each person that told them that they could read them out and memorize the prayers. And if they were caught without their quipu in town, they were flogged. So he had 3,000 of the same quipu made and handed out to this community. If we find that community and find its cemetery, there is our Rosetta Stone.
Lex Fridman
It is probably the case there is somebody in Peru and maybe a large community that knows this language that understands, and you just have to show up and ask them. And it’s like, they’re like, “Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.”
It is probably the case there is somebody in Peru and maybe a large community that knows this language that understands, and you just have to show up and ask them. And it’s like, they’re like, “Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.”
Ed Barnhart
There are some communities that are using them. There’s a couple of them that we had high hopes for, and then it was apparent that they were just making shit up. They didn’t actually know how to read it. They just knew it used to be read so they made a bunch of stuff about what it says, and they bring it out and they act like they can read it. But then when you ask them the details, they don’t know.
There are some communities that are using them. There’s a couple of them that we had high hopes for, and then it was apparent that they were just making shit up. They didn’t actually know how to read it. They just knew it used to be read so they made a bunch of stuff about what it says, and they bring it out and they act like they can read it. But then when you ask them the details, they don’t know.
But then on a much simpler level, there’s llama herders who keep a string in their pocket and they’ve got the knots equaling how many llamas they have, and then they have subcategories of information like, this one’s sick, we’ve lost these ones, this one’s pregnant. So they have these more simple and more mathematical quipus, but they’re using them to affect as a record.
Lex Fridman
Is it possible through archeology to know what the social organization of the Maya was? Maybe if there was a hierarchy, maybe what the political structure was, if there was a leader, different roles, priests, who had the power, who was powerless, who had certain kinds of roles, is it possible to know that?
Is it possible through archeology to know what the social organization of the Maya was? Maybe if there was a hierarchy, maybe what the political structure was, if there was a leader, different roles, priests, who had the power, who was powerless, who had certain kinds of roles, is it possible to know that?
Ed Barnhart
Actually because of hieroglyphs, yeah, we know a whole lot. There’s basic things that archeology, which is a very blunt tool, can figure out like this guy lives in a rich house, this guy lives in a poor house. But the hieroglyphs tell us specific stuff about who can rule, that it was hereditary, that hereditary rule was based on royal blood that could be burned and connect to the ancestors that lived up in the sky versus the one that’s lived in the underworld. It also told us things about hierarchy like that there were councils of lords underneath the king who each represented clans who had their own neighborhoods, and that there were revolving positions of authority.
Actually because of hieroglyphs, yeah, we know a whole lot. There’s basic things that archeology, which is a very blunt tool, can figure out like this guy lives in a rich house, this guy lives in a poor house. But the hieroglyphs tell us specific stuff about who can rule, that it was hereditary, that hereditary rule was based on royal blood that could be burned and connect to the ancestors that lived up in the sky versus the one that’s lived in the underworld. It also told us things about hierarchy like that there were councils of lords underneath the king who each represented clans who had their own neighborhoods, and that there were revolving positions of authority.
There was the site that I mapped for my dissertation and spent years in the jungle there, Palenque, had a lord’s title named Fire Lord. That was one of the generals of their army. And we could tell that position changed over time. So there was one guy named Chak Suutz’ who was the Fire Lord for the early part of a reign of a king called Ahkal Moʼ Nahb. Then by the time he carves this other panel, there’s another guy in the position of K’ak Ajaw, which was the Fire Lord. And so he had-
Lex Fridman
Got promoted or demoted?
Got promoted or demoted?
Ed Barnhart
Well, he could have been killed in the case of that. But then we have the interesting case of in the Postclassic, they shed the idea of kings. They don’t like kings anymore. That’s probably a big part of why the Classic disappearance and the abandonment of all those cities happened. People just got sick of kings. And so they turn into this more council system at Chichen Itza.
Well, he could have been killed in the case of that. But then we have the interesting case of in the Postclassic, they shed the idea of kings. They don’t like kings anymore. That’s probably a big part of why the Classic disappearance and the abandonment of all those cities happened. People just got sick of kings. And so they turn into this more council system at Chichen Itza.
But then when Chichen Itza falls, there’s a new city that’s architecture looks a lot like Chichen Itza. It’s called Mayapan. But it has what is called the League of Mayapan. And it has a council of representatives from the communities from all around the Yucatan. And it is basically a democracy. It is a Maya democracy that happens. The individuals from all around the Yucatan are there. Each family has their own council house at Mayapan, though they live back at their place. It’s kind of like a Maya Congress.
Lex Fridman
Representative of democracy.
Representative of democracy.
Ed Barnhart
It really was. And this happens in, I guess, 1250 AD that this Maya democracy happens. And we know the names of them, we know the families. And of course, they were humans, so eventually they screwed it all up. One family murdered another family and the whole city burned.
It really was. And this happens in, I guess, 1250 AD that this Maya democracy happens. And we know the names of them, we know the families. And of course, they were humans, so eventually they screwed it all up. One family murdered another family and the whole city burned.
Lex Fridman
And of course, it’s probably some fascinating corruption, which is hard to discover through-
And of course, it’s probably some fascinating corruption, which is hard to discover through-
Ed Barnhart
Part of it was the Aztecs screwing things up. The Aztecs came down with all sorts of, “We’ll buy everything you’re making.” And then eventually they were like, “Could we maybe buy some humans?” And then one family was like, “No.” And the other family was like, “I don’t know, they’re making us a lot of money.” So then they murdered each other, and the water supply got polluted, and then the city burned.
Part of it was the Aztecs screwing things up. The Aztecs came down with all sorts of, “We’ll buy everything you’re making.” And then eventually they were like, “Could we maybe buy some humans?” And then one family was like, “No.” And the other family was like, “I don’t know, they’re making us a lot of money.” So then they murdered each other, and the water supply got polluted, and then the city burned.
Lex Fridman
It seems like slavery, murder, and disease is a large component of the story of humans. You mentioned different periods in the Maya, the Classic, the Postclassic, the Preclassic, the Archaic. Can you just speak to that? So Archaic is before there was really a civilization?
It seems like slavery, murder, and disease is a large component of the story of humans. You mentioned different periods in the Maya, the Classic, the Postclassic, the Preclassic, the Archaic. Can you just speak to that? So Archaic is before there was really a civilization?
Ed Barnhart
Archaic’s pretty much when everybody’s hunter-gatherers.
Archaic’s pretty much when everybody’s hunter-gatherers.
Lex Fridman
So the Classic period was the golden age. And then the Preclassic is the interesting time that we were talking about. And the Postclassic is when the democracy came about.
So the Classic period was the golden age. And then the Preclassic is the interesting time that we were talking about. And the Postclassic is when the democracy came about.
Ed Barnhart
Well, midway through it. Reverted back to council systems. The Maya loved to be part of councils.
Well, midway through it. Reverted back to council systems. The Maya loved to be part of councils.
So yeah, we have Preclassic is like the origins of civilization. They’re starting to build cities. They’re starting to create their calendar. They’re starting to create these wonderful works of art. And the Classic period, if you look at 10 different textbooks for the Maya, you’ll get 10 different dates that wiggle around in there. But basically that’s the age of kings to me. That’s when these cities decide that they’re going to organize themselves around elite royal families that have this magical blood that can contact their ancestors that are directly in contact with the gods. The Maya never contact their gods directly. They contact their ancestors who are up there who act like liaisons to the gods.
And so the Maya age of kings has these dynasties sprouting up where these people have basically snowed the rest of the people, that they’ve got a special quality of their blood and only their offspring can do the same trick and talk to the gods, where everybody, every Joe Maya can let their blood and burn it and contact their ancestor. But Joe Maya’s dad is just a corn farmer who lives down below and he’s got no influence over the gods. But the rulers, their spirits go down briefly, but then they go up into the heavens and reside where the gods are and act as liaisons. So that’s the validation for this kingship that happens for about 400 years.
I know we say 250 to 900, which is kind of the encompassing edges of it, but it’s interesting that it’s actually specifically the ninth bakʼtun of their history. The ninth bakʼtun begins in like 426, and it ends in like 829. So it’s a 400-year period of time. And before that, there were no kings. And after that, there really aren’t kings. They’re heads of councils. So I call it the age of kings, where everybody’s following the directives of basically a despot. And for a while, that’s great. Cities build up, populations happening. I see it as kind of a cult of personality moment too. Strong, charismatic leaders inspire people to do great things together.
But eventually happens all the time with power, too much power corrupts. All of a sudden there’s this unwieldy huge elite class that has to be treated special by everybody else. And they start saying, “Well, I think we should fight with those guys and you guys should go take these things.” And people eventually get sick of it and they walk away from these cities, and that’s how we get the mysterious Maya collapse where all these cities are just gone.
Lex Fridman
That’s one of the great mysteries of the Maya civilization is that over a very short period of time, like a hundred years, it seems to have declined very rapidly. It collapsed. What do you think explains that? What happened?
That’s one of the great mysteries of the Maya civilization is that over a very short period of time, like a hundred years, it seems to have declined very rapidly. It collapsed. What do you think explains that? What happened?
Ed Barnhart
I think it’s a failing of archeology to properly see what was happening. I think that most of those cities populations moved no more than 20 to 40 kilometers out and started their own farm, and they lived in perishable houses. And all archeology signature sees is that nobody lives in the city center anymore. We don’t see a bunch of mass bodies. There’s no evidence of people getting sick. There are certain cities that fought with each other at the end, and we see that signature plain as day. We know when a city was attacked and burned. Mostly that didn’t happen. People moved and migrated.
I think it’s a failing of archeology to properly see what was happening. I think that most of those cities populations moved no more than 20 to 40 kilometers out and started their own farm, and they lived in perishable houses. And all archeology signature sees is that nobody lives in the city center anymore. We don’t see a bunch of mass bodies. There’s no evidence of people getting sick. There are certain cities that fought with each other at the end, and we see that signature plain as day. We know when a city was attacked and burned. Mostly that didn’t happen. People moved and migrated.
And it seems like right there around between 800 and 900, a lot of the elites that were on top, most of it was in the rainforests of northern Guatemala, they move. They move in two directions. Some of them move into the highlands of Guatemala, and some of them move up into the Yucatan. The city of Chichen Itza becomes the next big capital in Yucatan. But the word Itza is actually a word describing the people who lived around Lake Peten Itza in northern Guatemala. And all of the Maya are super clear about that, that the Itza came in as immigrants with these new ideas and created Chichen Itza. So the elites who were no longer welcome in their cities just moved and set up shops somewhere else.
Lex Fridman
So why was there a decline? What was maybe the catalyst? Was there a specific kind of events that started this? Was this an idea that kind of transformed the society?
So why was there a decline? What was maybe the catalyst? Was there a specific kind of events that started this? Was this an idea that kind of transformed the society?
Ed Barnhart
We are still debating that. I don’t think there is a single reason. I think humans are complicated. I think a lot of things led to this. One thing we can see archeologically is that every one of the cities became overpopulated. They were too popular. And we think that they pushed the limits of their capacity to feed and house people. We see it in lots of the cities at the end of the Classic period that people are seasonally starving.
We are still debating that. I don’t think there is a single reason. I think humans are complicated. I think a lot of things led to this. One thing we can see archeologically is that every one of the cities became overpopulated. They were too popular. And we think that they pushed the limits of their capacity to feed and house people. We see it in lots of the cities at the end of the Classic period that people are seasonally starving.
I remember really stark evidence in Copán, Honduras. Copán was this beautiful city, lineage of 17 kings. But the last kings and the last elite burials that we dig from the city center, the teeth are the telling part. They get this thing, when you’re growing up and you’re not getting enough food seasonally, it shows up in the enamel of your teeth. It’s called dental hypoplasia. And if somebody’s seasonally starving, it gets these lines in their teeth. And that last generation of Maya before they left Copán, even the rich people are seasonally starving. So there’s a problem there for sure.
But I also think, it’s a weird thing, it was not an empire. It was a group of independent city states like Greece. Some of them were allied, some of them were enemies. There was a huge civil war that settled out about the end of the Classic period. So if it was Europe, the victors would’ve taken over, the losers would’ve beat it and gone wherever they went. But when they abandoned these cities that were independent still, they all left both the guys that won and the guys that lost the war. So it couldn’t be just as simple as spoils go to the victor.
It’s such a wide area. Not everybody was starving like the people in the Copán Valley. So I personally think it was calendrically timed. It is interesting to note that that ninth period, that ninth 400-year period ends right then. And I think a lot of people, I can’t prove it archeologically, but I think a lot of people said we’re coming to the end of a great cycle and we need to renew. We need to change what we’re doing.
When you talk to the Maya today, like at the end of this 2012 thing, if you actually talk to Maya, say, “What happens at the end of a big cycle here?” They say cycles are a time of renewal and transformation, that it is all of our obligation to change our lives at the end of cycles. That change is coming. We can either be part of it or we can get steamrolled by it.
The Aztecs did this neat thing called the New Fire Ceremony every 52 years, which was the biggest their calendar would go. They’d burn down perfectly good temples. And they’d burn down their houses sometimes. And they would just, everybody in society would perform this, what they call the New Fire Ceremony, and they would renew the world. So I think my personal theory is that the Maya decided at the end of the ninth bakʼtun that it was time to renew the world.
Lex Fridman
I think this theory makes sense because they really internalized the calendar. That was a really big part of their culture, the sense of the cyclical nature of civilization.
I think this theory makes sense because they really internalized the calendar. That was a really big part of their culture, the sense of the cyclical nature of civilization.
Ed Barnhart
That’s what I think. I think that they created that calendar to perceive the cycle and to harmonize with it.
That’s what I think. I think that they created that calendar to perceive the cycle and to harmonize with it.
Aztecs
Lex Fridman
You mentioned the Aztec. What was the origin of the Aztec? Where did these people come from, at what time, and how?
You mentioned the Aztec. What was the origin of the Aztec? Where did these people come from, at what time, and how?
Ed Barnhart
Almost every one of the cultures we’re talking about now, we have two different versions of the answer to that question. We have the archeology version, and we have the Aztecs themselves. The Aztecs have this wonderful migration story where they say that they came from a place well to the north called Aztlán. And that they had this migration that went through kind of a hero’s journey where they go to this snake mountain place and they encounter the birth of the war god that they’ll worship after this. And how they stepped into the Valley of Mexico as the last, the lost brothers of everyone in the Valley of Mexico. They said that they all came from the north near Aztlán as a place, a cave with seven different passages called Chicomoztoc. And that all the people who spoke the language Nahuatl came from the cave. And most of them went early to the Valley of Mexico. And in the Aztecs’ story, they were just the lost tribe. They were the last brothers to come in.
Almost every one of the cultures we’re talking about now, we have two different versions of the answer to that question. We have the archeology version, and we have the Aztecs themselves. The Aztecs have this wonderful migration story where they say that they came from a place well to the north called Aztlán. And that they had this migration that went through kind of a hero’s journey where they go to this snake mountain place and they encounter the birth of the war god that they’ll worship after this. And how they stepped into the Valley of Mexico as the last, the lost brothers of everyone in the Valley of Mexico. They said that they all came from the north near Aztlán as a place, a cave with seven different passages called Chicomoztoc. And that all the people who spoke the language Nahuatl came from the cave. And most of them went early to the Valley of Mexico. And in the Aztecs’ story, they were just the lost tribe. They were the last brothers to come in.
But then they show up late game, and they become mercenaries. They just start working for communities in the Valley of Mexico. And this takes place in the 1300s. So about 200 years before Cortez shows up, the Aztecs show up to the Valley of Mexico. And they make themselves this indispensable group of mercenaries. They do the dirty work. All the civilized communities around Lake Texcoco, which is now Mexico City, it’s all dried up, but those guys were too civilized to fight with each other. But they could hire the Aztecs to do their dirty stuff. So the Aztecs did that and really changed the politics in the game of the Valley of Mexico.
Lex Fridman
The dirty stuff. They were the muscle.
The dirty stuff. They were the muscle.
Ed Barnhart
Yeah. They’d go in and they’d kill whoever you wanted killed, and now you’re the king of this area.
Yeah. They’d go in and they’d kill whoever you wanted killed, and now you’re the king of this area.
So one of these kings that they were working for really liked them and decided, I’m going to make the Aztecs part of our ancestry. I’m going to give them my daughter to marry the head of the Aztecs. And the Aztecs sacrificed her. And that really pissed that guy off. So he took his whole army and ran the Aztecs out for a while. They say they live in this horrible desert section eating lizards.
But then one of their priests say, “We’re going to walk around the lake, and my visions say that where we see an eagle sitting on a cactus with a snake in its mouth is where we will build our capital.” And they see that, but it’s out on an island in the lake. And he said, “Well, I don’t know, that’s the place.” So they build up an island, they go to that island, and then they just start piling up lake muck until they make a whole city there in the middle of the lake. They make an island city. And all of this occurs in about a hundred years. So they show up about 1300. The capital of Tenochtitlan, as they called it, is really established. And from there, they quickly take over the entire valley. They make what they call the Triple Alliance, which is the two other big communities of the lake are now their allies, but they’re not really allies. The Aztecs were brutal. Those guys agreed to shut up and let the Aztecs run the show. And then the Aztecs spread like a wildfire all the way down into the Maya area. Everywhere they go, they rename everybody’s towns and make them pay tribute.
Lex Fridman
Pretty short lasting civilization. Spread extremely quickly. Famous. What are some defining qualities that explain that?
Pretty short lasting civilization. Spread extremely quickly. Famous. What are some defining qualities that explain that?
Ed Barnhart
I think they were very much like they had an attitude like Attila the Hun. They just had no problem ripping your skin off. Everybody else had become too comfortable and too civilized. And the Aztecs were just mercenary. They told everybody, “We can either rip your heart out or you can work for us. And if you work for us, you’ll be just fine.” They’d go to every town they’d go to.
I think they were very much like they had an attitude like Attila the Hun. They just had no problem ripping your skin off. Everybody else had become too comfortable and too civilized. And the Aztecs were just mercenary. They told everybody, “We can either rip your heart out or you can work for us. And if you work for us, you’ll be just fine.” They’d go to every town they’d go to.
The first thing they’d do is they’d show up with a bunch of merchants. There was a merchant class who were also military. They were really the people who assessed where they were going to attack next. They’d go in with a bunch of Aztec products and say, “We’d like to trade with you.” But all the time, they were assessing their military prowess, what products they had that they could take. And then soon after the pochteca were there would come the military with the reconnaissance.
Lex Fridman
So the Aztec had a huge warrior class, as you’re saying. So can you linger on their whole relationship with war and violence?
So the Aztec had a huge warrior class, as you’re saying. So can you linger on their whole relationship with war and violence?
Ed Barnhart
They worshiped a war deity. Their main temple was the Templo Mayor. It had two temples up on top. One was Tlaloc the Rain God, who liked a lot of sacrifice himself. But then the other one was Huitzilopochtli. That translates “The hummingbird on the left.” But he’s the war god. I love that he’s a hummingbird. Maybe he’s fast and he comes from the magical side or something.
They worshiped a war deity. Their main temple was the Templo Mayor. It had two temples up on top. One was Tlaloc the Rain God, who liked a lot of sacrifice himself. But then the other one was Huitzilopochtli. That translates “The hummingbird on the left.” But he’s the war god. I love that he’s a hummingbird. Maybe he’s fast and he comes from the magical side or something.
But then right next to the temple, on either side were the two temples of the warriors. One was the Eagle Warrior clan, the other one was the Jaguar Warrior clan. And they were symbolically in competition with each other, though a unified force. I guess probably an analogy between the Navy and the Air Force. They had a good-natured competition of who was better, but they were the same force. So those were their symbolic warriors.
Ed Barnhart
Force. So those were their symbolic warriors dressed up in all of their finery, and they would come at people with these two forces, and it was very unlike anything that had happened before in Mesoamerica. Again, I think I could draw a parallel to what happened in Europe. The famous Henry V moment in Agincourt where his kind of ragtag army wipes out half of France’s aristocracy with the Longbow. Up until that moment, Europe had a very war is for the elite classes kind of attitude. And then after France lost half their aristocracy, then it was like, maybe we should be hiring from the villages.
Force. So those were their symbolic warriors dressed up in all of their finery, and they would come at people with these two forces, and it was very unlike anything that had happened before in Mesoamerica. Again, I think I could draw a parallel to what happened in Europe. The famous Henry V moment in Agincourt where his kind of ragtag army wipes out half of France’s aristocracy with the Longbow. Up until that moment, Europe had a very war is for the elite classes kind of attitude. And then after France lost half their aristocracy, then it was like, maybe we should be hiring from the villages.
The same sort of thing happened with the Aztec that there was, Mesoamerica really didn’t have huge standing armies, but the Aztec put this army together and they intimidated people. They didn’t actually have to use it a lot. It was used to great effect in the valley of Mexico and for the rest of Mesoamerica it was mostly the fear factor.
Lex Fridman
But there also seemed to be a celebration of violence. I think you said that beauty and blood went hand in hand for the Aztec, maybe like the Roman Empire, was it, they just had maybe a different relationship with violence, where that stood in the purpose of life, purpose of existence. Is that fair to say?
But there also seemed to be a celebration of violence. I think you said that beauty and blood went hand in hand for the Aztec, maybe like the Roman Empire, was it, they just had maybe a different relationship with violence, where that stood in the purpose of life, purpose of existence. Is that fair to say?
Ed Barnhart
I would hypothesize so. I mean, I think it’s one of the wonderful things about studying these ancient cultures, knowing what our human capacity is and the Aztecs, when I said that statement, what I meant by that is they were absolutely comfortable with human sacrifice and ripping people’s hearts out.
I would hypothesize so. I mean, I think it’s one of the wonderful things about studying these ancient cultures, knowing what our human capacity is and the Aztecs, when I said that statement, what I meant by that is they were absolutely comfortable with human sacrifice and ripping people’s hearts out.
They had this just grotesque, violent bent, but in the same way, they also absolutely loved flower gardens and poetry and music and dance. The same Aztec king who would order the hearts of a thousand people extracted also would stand up at dinner parties to recite his own poetry or the poetry of famous statesmen that had come before him. And they spent money on things like flower gardens. All of the causeways leading to the Aztec capitol had beautiful flower gardens and they had a museum and they had an aquarium and a zoo, and they had an opera and they had a ballet. And these things existed together. There was not, in the Aztec mind, any conflict between witnessing someone’s heart getting ripped out one moment, and in the evening we’d go to the ballet.
Lex Fridman
How does that contrast the relationship with war and violence with the other civilizations of Mesoamerica and South America, maybe the Maya? What was their relationship like with war?
How does that contrast the relationship with war and violence with the other civilizations of Mesoamerica and South America, maybe the Maya? What was their relationship like with war?
Ed Barnhart
The Maya were certainly influenced by the Aztec at the end, so we get a skewed perspective from the contact period accounts because the Maya were much more violent and sacrifice-oriented in their post-classic rendition. But in the classic period, it was mostly the priests and the king who were doing the sacrificing of themselves that we know that the Maya kings would cut their penises and then bleed that blood onto paper and the paper would burn and become the smoke through which they’d commune with their ancestors.
The Maya were certainly influenced by the Aztec at the end, so we get a skewed perspective from the contact period accounts because the Maya were much more violent and sacrifice-oriented in their post-classic rendition. But in the classic period, it was mostly the priests and the king who were doing the sacrificing of themselves that we know that the Maya kings would cut their penises and then bleed that blood onto paper and the paper would burn and become the smoke through which they’d commune with their ancestors.
But they’d actually tie this paper onto their penis, cut it, and then dance. So the blood splattered, but it was them cutting themselves. It was different than killing a bunch of other people for it. It was a auto-sacrifice, we call it. Still very macabre, but very different than deciding a whole bunch of other people should die. It was a self-sacrifice thing.
Lex Fridman
Can you speak to the sacrifice a bit more? Animal sacrifice, human sacrifice. What role did that play for the Maya, for the Aztec, for the different cultures here. Was that religious in nature?
Can you speak to the sacrifice a bit more? Animal sacrifice, human sacrifice. What role did that play for the Maya, for the Aztec, for the different cultures here. Was that religious in nature?
Ed Barnhart
It was absolutely religious in nature, and the Aztecs were of the opinion that the war God demanded people were captured and sacrificed and it had to be valuable people. There was a lot of… before they made that big standing army, they had just ritual battles that they would have and they’d take captives. In fact, all around Mesoamerica, they wanted captives so that they could bring them back and sacrifice them for the gods and the Aztecs deciding to specifically follow the war God, did this more than anybody. They did it so much and so successfully that they didn’t have any enemies nearby.
It was absolutely religious in nature, and the Aztecs were of the opinion that the war God demanded people were captured and sacrificed and it had to be valuable people. There was a lot of… before they made that big standing army, they had just ritual battles that they would have and they’d take captives. In fact, all around Mesoamerica, they wanted captives so that they could bring them back and sacrifice them for the gods and the Aztecs deciding to specifically follow the war God, did this more than anybody. They did it so much and so successfully that they didn’t have any enemies nearby.
So they decided this one poor sucker group, not that far away, called the Tlaxcallans, that they were never going to make peace with them so that they could go close by every year and just have a little symbolic war with the Tlaxcallans and haul them back for a sacrifice. Cortes met those guys and he was like, here are people who hate their guts. I’ll just use these guys. So we say, oh, Cortes took over the Aztec world. It was Cortes and 20,000 super pissed-off, Tlaxcallans.
Lex Fridman
And the actual sacrifice, so there would be kind of these ritual battles or is it chopping off people’s heads? Like, is there some interesting rituals around the sacrifice?
And the actual sacrifice, so there would be kind of these ritual battles or is it chopping off people’s heads? Like, is there some interesting rituals around the sacrifice?
Ed Barnhart
It’s mostly heart extraction, sometimes heads, but they bring them up on top of the temple so everybody can see it. And they had a specific stone where they would bend them over so their rib cage would come out and they’d use a thick obsidian knife, and they had a really, just, tried and true way to do it. They’d stab it in in a certain place close, and then they’d push down on the sternum as they ripped up on the rib cage. So they’d just make a place where they could just rip it right out.
It’s mostly heart extraction, sometimes heads, but they bring them up on top of the temple so everybody can see it. And they had a specific stone where they would bend them over so their rib cage would come out and they’d use a thick obsidian knife, and they had a really, just, tried and true way to do it. They’d stab it in in a certain place close, and then they’d push down on the sternum as they ripped up on the rib cage. So they’d just make a place where they could just rip it right out.
Lex Fridman
With their hand?
With their hand?
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, with their hand. But they were really just surgical about it. They’d use a thick obsidian knife where they could just break the ribs right along the sternum and then push the sternum down, pull up and just [inaudible 02:27:00].
Yeah, with their hand. But they were really just surgical about it. They’d use a thick obsidian knife where they could just break the ribs right along the sternum and then push the sternum down, pull up and just [inaudible 02:27:00].
Lex Fridman
While the person was alive?
While the person was alive?
Ed Barnhart
Yep. While the person was alive. And the Aztecs had this idea, there was a horrible drought that went on that almost ruined the entire valley, and they came to this conclusion that it’s because we haven’t been killing enough people. We’ve got to bump this up. And then when they did and they decided, they really took it out on the Tlaxcallans, it rained again. So it was proof positive that they should just keep doing that. And they ate people as well. They really did.
Yep. While the person was alive. And the Aztecs had this idea, there was a horrible drought that went on that almost ruined the entire valley, and they came to this conclusion that it’s because we haven’t been killing enough people. We’ve got to bump this up. And then when they did and they decided, they really took it out on the Tlaxcallans, it rained again. So it was proof positive that they should just keep doing that. And they ate people as well. They really did.
Lex Fridman
As part of the sacrifice or?
As part of the sacrifice or?
Ed Barnhart
After the sacrifice, then they would eat them. And this was part of the drought and the famine thing that started, but then it was just kind of the thing to do when Cortes got there, they were still having certain special feasts that involved humans and it really upset the Spanish that they would be tricked into eating human. Like, “Hey, you’re liking dinner? That was a human.”
After the sacrifice, then they would eat them. And this was part of the drought and the famine thing that started, but then it was just kind of the thing to do when Cortes got there, they were still having certain special feasts that involved humans and it really upset the Spanish that they would be tricked into eating human. Like, “Hey, you’re liking dinner? That was a human.”
Lex Fridman
So the idea, was it actually having a taste for human flesh or is it just these kinds of ideas of if you eat a person’s heart that you can get their spirit and their strength?
So the idea, was it actually having a taste for human flesh or is it just these kinds of ideas of if you eat a person’s heart that you can get their spirit and their strength?
Ed Barnhart
In the case of the Aztecs, it seemed like they just liked it. This guy, Sahagun, who was a very responsible chronicler, that was pretty specific, that there was a distribution thing. The elites got butts. The butts were the best part, so the butt cheeks, those are the best parts to eat. And then it went down the chain until some people just got fingers and toes.
In the case of the Aztecs, it seemed like they just liked it. This guy, Sahagun, who was a very responsible chronicler, that was pretty specific, that there was a distribution thing. The elites got butts. The butts were the best part, so the butt cheeks, those are the best parts to eat. And then it went down the chain until some people just got fingers and toes.
Lex Fridman
Literally bought taste for the Aztec. Boy. All right.
Literally bought taste for the Aztec. Boy. All right.
Ed Barnhart
They really did. They really did. In fact, that’s what caused the, have you heard of the Noche Triste? The sad night? The night that the Aztecs really go nuts on the Spanish and kick them out. It’s all triggered by this one guy, Pedro de Alvarado, who’s left in charge by Cortes. As Cortes goes to the coast and tries to talk to the New Force, talk him into being for him, which he does.
They really did. They really did. In fact, that’s what caused the, have you heard of the Noche Triste? The sad night? The night that the Aztecs really go nuts on the Spanish and kick them out. It’s all triggered by this one guy, Pedro de Alvarado, who’s left in charge by Cortes. As Cortes goes to the coast and tries to talk to the New Force, talk him into being for him, which he does.
But Pedro Alvarado is left back in town in charge and they’re doing another one of these huge Aztec buffets and parties to honor them. And it happens. The guy says, “Hey, do you like dinner?” Like, oh yeah, it’s a nice dinner. “Well, it’s humans. You’re eating humans. See, I told you they were good.” And Alvarado just freaks out and he has the guards close the doors and he murders everyone in the party. Women, children, nobody has weapons. He just murders everyone.
And that’s what spazzes the Aztecs out to eventually murder Montezuma who was their captive and then try to murder all of them. And it was all Pedro Alvarado’s fault for freaking out about eating humans.
Lex Fridman
Just a little practical joke.
Just a little practical joke.
Ed Barnhart
Yeah. It was just, they thought it was funny. He did not.
Yeah. It was just, they thought it was funny. He did not.
Lex Fridman
That’s fascinating. I didn’t realize. So I kind of assume that some level of cannibalism would have to do with eating the heart to gain the spirit of the person or something like this, but.
That’s fascinating. I didn’t realize. So I kind of assume that some level of cannibalism would have to do with eating the heart to gain the spirit of the person or something like this, but.
Ed Barnhart
In certain deer hunting rituals, things for sure. But the Aztecs, no, they just liked eating humans. It was part of the fear factor too. I mean, they could walk into a new town and be like, you guys could either send us a number of quetzal feathers every month or we could eat you.
In certain deer hunting rituals, things for sure. But the Aztecs, no, they just liked eating humans. It was part of the fear factor too. I mean, they could walk into a new town and be like, you guys could either send us a number of quetzal feathers every month or we could eat you.
Lex Fridman
So that’s psychological warfare and actual warfare. It worked and that’s how they spread quickly.
So that’s psychological warfare and actual warfare. It worked and that’s how they spread quickly.
Ed Barnhart
And they were just about to take over the Maya when the Spanish came and messed everything up, they had the Maya surrounded and they were about to take over the whole Yucatan.
And they were just about to take over the Maya when the Spanish came and messed everything up, they had the Maya surrounded and they were about to take over the whole Yucatan.
Inca Empire
Lex Fridman
So you think without the Spanish, there would be this Aztec empire that would last for a very long time.
So you think without the Spanish, there would be this Aztec empire that would last for a very long time.
Ed Barnhart
I think there would’ve been an Aztec empire. I think they would’ve finished dominating everybody, but they did it through hate and everybody hated the Aztecs.
I think there would’ve been an Aztec empire. I think they would’ve finished dominating everybody, but they did it through hate and everybody hated the Aztecs.
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 02:31:09].
[inaudible 02:31:09].
Ed Barnhart
So it wouldn’t have lasted forever. They were not ruling justly. They were ruling by force. And that can only go on so long before revolution happens. The Inca Empire, I think that would’ve gone on forever. Because they were really community oriented. Once the Inca took over, no one in the Inca Empire starved, they built architecture. Everyone was safe. It was the society that could have lasted a long time.
So it wouldn’t have lasted forever. They were not ruling justly. They were ruling by force. And that can only go on so long before revolution happens. The Inca Empire, I think that would’ve gone on forever. Because they were really community oriented. Once the Inca took over, no one in the Inca Empire starved, they built architecture. Everyone was safe. It was the society that could have lasted a long time.
Lex Fridman
What was the origin of the Inca Empire?
What was the origin of the Inca Empire?
Ed Barnhart
Well, it was bloody at first. Like most of them are, but once they started taking over, what they did is they Empire built. Everybody else had just raided their neighbors to get the resources, but everybody they raided, they turned them into the Inca Empire and they created this incredible Mit’a system where you took turns working and they created the road system so they could get groups of workers back and forth. So a town of let’s say 5,000 people, the Inca would roll up with an army of a hundred, 200,000 people and say, would you guys like to be part of the empire? Or would you like us to escort you to the edge of the empire?
Well, it was bloody at first. Like most of them are, but once they started taking over, what they did is they Empire built. Everybody else had just raided their neighbors to get the resources, but everybody they raided, they turned them into the Inca Empire and they created this incredible Mit’a system where you took turns working and they created the road system so they could get groups of workers back and forth. So a town of let’s say 5,000 people, the Inca would roll up with an army of a hundred, 200,000 people and say, would you guys like to be part of the empire? Or would you like us to escort you to the edge of the empire?
And if your mayor here agrees, then he can have a town. He can have a house in Cusco. But then the very next month, a big work crew would show up and they’d start building agricultural terraces and storage units. And every month with the agricultural excess, they would have big parties and everybody would eat. So people lived well in the Inca Empire. It was a rough beginning, but everybody who agreed to be part of it immediately had access to a whole bunch of resources and security they never had.
Lex Fridman
So they started in South America and Peru and Cusco. Cusco was the center of it.
So they started in South America and Peru and Cusco. Cusco was the center of it.
Ed Barnhart
Cusco in their language, Quechua, it means navel or belly button, and it’s up in the mountains, but there’s four quarters that they called their empire Tawantinsuyu, the land of four quarters. And the center of those four quarters was Cusco.
Cusco in their language, Quechua, it means navel or belly button, and it’s up in the mountains, but there’s four quarters that they called their empire Tawantinsuyu, the land of four quarters. And the center of those four quarters was Cusco.
Lex Fridman
It sprung to life in 1200 A.D.C.
It sprung to life in 1200 A.D.C.
Ed Barnhart
We backwards project what it was, but it was probably mid-twelve hundreds when the first Sapa Inca, the first ruler came in, but it was the, I think it’s the ninth one, [inaudible 02:33:45] Pachacuti who really started being an empire builder.
We backwards project what it was, but it was probably mid-twelve hundreds when the first Sapa Inca, the first ruler came in, but it was the, I think it’s the ninth one, [inaudible 02:33:45] Pachacuti who really started being an empire builder.
Lex Fridman
Part of that, what really defined the empire, as you said, roads, they build a massive road network.
Part of that, what really defined the empire, as you said, roads, they build a massive road network.
Ed Barnhart
Roads, and in the same way that the Roman strategy of building roads and infrastructure, and then every place they took over, they’d create certain key pieces of Roman architecture that kind of made that city Roman and they’d rename it something. The Inca did the same thing. They had certain signature Inca architecture that they would build in as the administrative part.
Roads, and in the same way that the Roman strategy of building roads and infrastructure, and then every place they took over, they’d create certain key pieces of Roman architecture that kind of made that city Roman and they’d rename it something. The Inca did the same thing. They had certain signature Inca architecture that they would build in as the administrative part.
They’d send the Khipukamayuq, the guys who would weave or knot the khipus as accountants, and they would go through and say what everybody did. Okay, you’re a good farmer. You’re going to farm. You are a good weaver. You’re going to weave. All the men here are going to take a turn at being part of the army. And then they sent independent Khipukamayuqs too. Every community had five or six that were not allowed to work with each other, and they all had to independently send their Khipus back to Cusco. And if there were accounting discrepancies that were called to Cusco to figure out who was lying about what.
Lex Fridman
So there’s a super sophisticated record-keeping system.
So there’s a super sophisticated record-keeping system.
Ed Barnhart
Yeah. And that was the Khipu and the Spanish recorded what they could and then burned them all.
Yeah. And that was the Khipu and the Spanish recorded what they could and then burned them all.
Lex Fridman
But that’s an interesting development for an empire because that allows you to really expand and have some kind of management, some level of control.
But that’s an interesting development for an empire because that allows you to really expand and have some kind of management, some level of control.
Ed Barnhart
They couldn’t, at the end, they were at least 10 million people and there was just no way to do that without some sort of sophisticated record-keeping system.
They couldn’t, at the end, they were at least 10 million people and there was just no way to do that without some sort of sophisticated record-keeping system.
Lex Fridman
If the Inca had to face Aztec, who wins?
If the Inca had to face Aztec, who wins?
Ed Barnhart
Inca.
Inca.
Lex Fridman
Inca.
Inca.
Ed Barnhart
I mean, the Aztecs were psychotic, but the Inca had just reserves for miles and they had that essential hearts and minds. There was only one thing that everybody got pissed off about when they joined the Inca Empire. For some reason, everything was owned communally except the llamas. The llamas were the kings. And so that was the one thing that some of them would stay in town just to be work llamas, but you don’t own your llama anymore. And people are really attached to their llamas. To this day they are like family members. So it’d be like everybody walked in and said, everybody’s family dog is now mine. [inaudible 02:36:23] really upset people on an emotional level.
I mean, the Aztecs were psychotic, but the Inca had just reserves for miles and they had that essential hearts and minds. There was only one thing that everybody got pissed off about when they joined the Inca Empire. For some reason, everything was owned communally except the llamas. The llamas were the kings. And so that was the one thing that some of them would stay in town just to be work llamas, but you don’t own your llama anymore. And people are really attached to their llamas. To this day they are like family members. So it’d be like everybody walked in and said, everybody’s family dog is now mine. [inaudible 02:36:23] really upset people on an emotional level.
Lex Fridman
Well, I mean, so llamas got domesticated at some point, probably. I don’t even know when, but early on.
Well, I mean, so llamas got domesticated at some point, probably. I don’t even know when, but early on.
Ed Barnhart
We have rock art that progresses to make it seem like a progression from people depicted hunting them to people depicted standing next to pregnant ones. So it was still in that archaic period at least that they became friends.
We have rock art that progresses to make it seem like a progression from people depicted hunting them to people depicted standing next to pregnant ones. So it was still in that archaic period at least that they became friends.
Lex Fridman
But if you roll in and you own them, that’s?
But if you roll in and you own them, that’s?
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, that pissed everybody off. For some reason, the Inca owned everybody’s llama instantly, and he would take anything he wanted. A lot of them would just get carted away that day, just sent to Cusco. And they’d also take their mummies. That was a weird thing. Everybody mourns, they’re dead, but the Inca just ceased to accept it. They would just, the mummies were still there. Okay, he’s dead, but look, he’s still got clothes. He’s at the party. Let’s put a beer in front of him. They just kept people as mummies. And so the ancestral mummies of every town, part of being absorbed into the empire was, okay, your most important mummies are now going to have their own beautiful house in Cusco, but they would physically bring those mummies to Cusco to make now Cusco the spiritual heart of their belief system.
Yeah, that pissed everybody off. For some reason, the Inca owned everybody’s llama instantly, and he would take anything he wanted. A lot of them would just get carted away that day, just sent to Cusco. And they’d also take their mummies. That was a weird thing. Everybody mourns, they’re dead, but the Inca just ceased to accept it. They would just, the mummies were still there. Okay, he’s dead, but look, he’s still got clothes. He’s at the party. Let’s put a beer in front of him. They just kept people as mummies. And so the ancestral mummies of every town, part of being absorbed into the empire was, okay, your most important mummies are now going to have their own beautiful house in Cusco, but they would physically bring those mummies to Cusco to make now Cusco the spiritual heart of their belief system.
Lex Fridman
I mean, I could see how that would piss people off, but it’s also a pretty powerful way to say, the ancestors that you idolize, that you respect are now in the capitol.
I mean, I could see how that would piss people off, but it’s also a pretty powerful way to say, the ancestors that you idolize, that you respect are now in the capitol.
Ed Barnhart
They’ve been elevated. We didn’t steal them. We have given them a new place of honor, and you’re welcome to come visit them all the time. And they did. They have these festivals where everyone from all corners of the Inca world would come to Cusco.
They’ve been elevated. We didn’t steal them. We have given them a new place of honor, and you’re welcome to come visit them all the time. And they did. They have these festivals where everyone from all corners of the Inca world would come to Cusco.
Lex Fridman
And which of the civilizations mummified people?
And which of the civilizations mummified people?
Ed Barnhart
The Incas for sure mummified people and even did some of that kind of Egyptian- esque taking out of organs and preparing the body. They put straw inside the cavity and mummify them, but the Maya didn’t do it at all. The Maya, in fact, on purpose would flood tombs with water so that the skin would float off the skeletons faster, and then they’d get back in there. It was jungly. So I think the bugs probably had part of it too. But then they would get back in there to get the bones. They’d open it back up and take the bones out and paint them with red Cinnabar, the one that I was in, in Copan, we had evidence that they had gone in there four different times, and the last couple times they only took the skull out and repainted it and then put it back in articulated on the skeleton. But they didn’t mummify. They on purpose would grossly float the bodies so they could get the skin off faster and get to the bones.
The Incas for sure mummified people and even did some of that kind of Egyptian- esque taking out of organs and preparing the body. They put straw inside the cavity and mummify them, but the Maya didn’t do it at all. The Maya, in fact, on purpose would flood tombs with water so that the skin would float off the skeletons faster, and then they’d get back in there. It was jungly. So I think the bugs probably had part of it too. But then they would get back in there to get the bones. They’d open it back up and take the bones out and paint them with red Cinnabar, the one that I was in, in Copan, we had evidence that they had gone in there four different times, and the last couple times they only took the skull out and repainted it and then put it back in articulated on the skeleton. But they didn’t mummify. They on purpose would grossly float the bodies so they could get the skin off faster and get to the bones.
Lex Fridman
But would they keep the bones?
But would they keep the bones?
Ed Barnhart
Yeah, they’d keep the bones and they’d pull the bones out occasionally and do rituals to them or commune with them and then put them back in.
Yeah, they’d keep the bones and they’d pull the bones out occasionally and do rituals to them or commune with them and then put them back in.
Lex Fridman
So there’s still a deep connection to the ancestors through the physical manifestation of the ancestors then, whether mummified or bone.
So there’s still a deep connection to the ancestors through the physical manifestation of the ancestors then, whether mummified or bone.
Ed Barnhart
And to this day, if you do an excavation here in the United States, Native American people don’t like it. They don’t like their graves, which is fine enough. I wouldn’t want somebody digging up my grandma either. But the Maya, they love it.
And to this day, if you do an excavation here in the United States, Native American people don’t like it. They don’t like their graves, which is fine enough. I wouldn’t want somebody digging up my grandma either. But the Maya, they love it.
Lex Fridman
They love it.
They love it.
Ed Barnhart
And every Maya person, if we find a grave, they’re like, yeah, look at that. Bones, cool. Can I touch? They’re not spooked about it at all. They think it’s exciting. I, one time, helped out a physical anthropologist in town in Copan to get a osteology collection together of various animals. So if we got bones from an excavation, we could see what kind of animal it was based on the collection. And this family said, well, our family dog died last year and we buried him in the backyard. You could go dig him up. And so we were like, okay, yeah, I mean, we do need a dog.
And every Maya person, if we find a grave, they’re like, yeah, look at that. Bones, cool. Can I touch? They’re not spooked about it at all. They think it’s exciting. I, one time, helped out a physical anthropologist in town in Copan to get a osteology collection together of various animals. So if we got bones from an excavation, we could see what kind of animal it was based on the collection. And this family said, well, our family dog died last year and we buried him in the backyard. You could go dig him up. And so we were like, okay, yeah, I mean, we do need a dog.
We’ll go dig up your dog. And they were like, but the kids really want to help you. So their kids came out and this was like their puppy, and it died less than a year ago. When we got to it, one of them just grabbed up a bone and he was like, [inaudible 02:40:59] like little bitty bones. Yay. What a weird attitude. That’s your dead dog there. But they have a different relationship with the dead.
Lex Fridman
In some sense that’s a beautiful attitude, right?
In some sense that’s a beautiful attitude, right?
Ed Barnhart
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Why pretend like we’re not mortal and this is just the process of it. And as you say it now, it kind of will be cool.
Why pretend like we’re not mortal and this is just the process of it. And as you say it now, it kind of will be cool.
Ed Barnhart
That’s what Day of the Dead is all about. And I love Day of the Dead. Halloween’s this creepy thing where they’re all monsters, but Day of the Dead is this beautiful time where we remember our ancestors. I convinced my kids after the movie Coco came out. Now we have an altar with all of our great-grandparents on the altar, and we talk about who they were and how they lived, and we put things on the altar that mattered in their life, and we remember them on that day and it turned something that was a weird eat too much candy and wear a monster mask thing into something beautiful where we discuss where we came from.
That’s what Day of the Dead is all about. And I love Day of the Dead. Halloween’s this creepy thing where they’re all monsters, but Day of the Dead is this beautiful time where we remember our ancestors. I convinced my kids after the movie Coco came out. Now we have an altar with all of our great-grandparents on the altar, and we talk about who they were and how they lived, and we put things on the altar that mattered in their life, and we remember them on that day and it turned something that was a weird eat too much candy and wear a monster mask thing into something beautiful where we discuss where we came from.
Lex Fridman
I have to ask about the giant stones the Inca has been able to somehow move and fit together perfectly. Do you understand? Is it understood how they were able to do that so well?
I have to ask about the giant stones the Inca has been able to somehow move and fit together perfectly. Do you understand? Is it understood how they were able to do that so well?
Ed Barnhart
No. The moving of it, I think that we have reasonable theories. There are ways to pivot large weights. There’s a great guy named Wally Wallington, a retired contractor here in the US who built Stonehenge in his backyard in Minnesota, single-handedly showing how you can move big stones. So I think Wally’s already figured out how to move them. It’s the perfectly fit so carefully fit together that you couldn’t even put a dime in between the stones. That’s the one that I think still has people baffled. The common archeological wisdom that you’d find out of a textbook is that they just kept pecking away at it with hammer stones and setting them and resetting them until they were perfect, which has to be bullshit, that there is no way that they just were that meticulous. I mean, everybody’s got a hammerstone. I personally think it’s acids.
No. The moving of it, I think that we have reasonable theories. There are ways to pivot large weights. There’s a great guy named Wally Wallington, a retired contractor here in the US who built Stonehenge in his backyard in Minnesota, single-handedly showing how you can move big stones. So I think Wally’s already figured out how to move them. It’s the perfectly fit so carefully fit together that you couldn’t even put a dime in between the stones. That’s the one that I think still has people baffled. The common archeological wisdom that you’d find out of a textbook is that they just kept pecking away at it with hammer stones and setting them and resetting them until they were perfect, which has to be bullshit, that there is no way that they just were that meticulous. I mean, everybody’s got a hammerstone. I personally think it’s acids.
I think they melted them together. And there are weird places when you really look at closely to these stones, which I’ve done a number of times. I’m going back next month to Machu Picchu and especially Cusco. I walk around in the alleys where these 500 to a thousand-year-old walls are still there. And I see things like the crystals in the andesite are almost stitched together along the seams. The andesite around it is melted and the crystals haven’t. And there are other places where there are weird wipes on the wall. It’s just melted. Like somebody took a rag and wiped it while it was soft. Lots of talk about soft stones turning hard too. I haven’t been able to prove it. This is one of these end of my archeological career chapters. I’m either going to prove myself wrong or prove it, but I think they used acids. My dad’s a chemist and he told me a long time ago that there’s no way, there’s no naturally occurring acids. But my current theory, actually, I got the idea initially from the show Breaking Bad.
I don’t know if you ever saw that show, but there’s a point in which they’re trying to dissolve a body and they’re using hydrofluoric acid and it goes right through the ceiling. That hydrofluoric acid is so fascinating. It won’t go through plastic, and you can also bring it in inert parts and then combine it. The Inca made tons of jewelry out of fluorite. Fluorite is big in the Andes, and they also mined a lot of things for gold and silver. And the byproduct of that mining is sulfuric acid.
You put sulfuric acid and fluorite together and it’s hydrofluoric acid, and that will burn through andesite or anything. And if you learned how to do it judiciously and you didn’t care whether servants lost an arm or two, then you could actually use them to fuse these together. And I think they’re fused together. I asked the city of Cusco if I could take some core samples, and they said, go away, gringo. Don’t touch our walls. So actually this next time I’m going to go try to talk to the more Quechua authorities in a place called Ollantaytambo and maybe I can convince them, but right now, they just think I’m a weird-ass gringo who wants to put holes in their walls.
Lex Fridman
That’s a fascinating theory. And so how could you get to the bottom of that? So getting core samples to see if there’s some kind of trace.
That’s a fascinating theory. And so how could you get to the bottom of that? So getting core samples to see if there’s some kind of trace.
Ed Barnhart
Chemists I’m working with say that if there was hydrofluoric acid in between these, that a core sample right along the seam, they can separate out the elements in there and detect whether there was actually elements of hydrofluoric acid. I wanted to go straight to burning rocks, but they were like, no, I mean we already know that’s true. I mean, yeah, we can burn some rocks, but it would happen. And that’s just chemistry. We got to prove that it would happen in the walls. So go get us samples. And that was before COVID and all sorts. You know how it is, you probably are the same guy where you’ve got a thousand ideas and the ones that are fruitful, you run with and the other ones you’ll get back to.
Chemists I’m working with say that if there was hydrofluoric acid in between these, that a core sample right along the seam, they can separate out the elements in there and detect whether there was actually elements of hydrofluoric acid. I wanted to go straight to burning rocks, but they were like, no, I mean we already know that’s true. I mean, yeah, we can burn some rocks, but it would happen. And that’s just chemistry. We got to prove that it would happen in the walls. So go get us samples. And that was before COVID and all sorts. You know how it is, you probably are the same guy where you’ve got a thousand ideas and the ones that are fruitful, you run with and the other ones you’ll get back to.
Lex Fridman
That’d be fascinating if true, and I hope you do show that it’s true or follow, either one.
That’d be fascinating if true, and I hope you do show that it’s true or follow, either one.
Ed Barnhart
I’ll try to disprove it.
I’ll try to disprove it.
Lex Fridman
Disprove it. Yeah. I wonder if we discount how much amazing stuff a collection of humans can do, because it just feels like if a large number of humans are just working a little bit chipping away at stuff. At scale, they can do miraculous things. So the question is, how can a large number of humans be motivated to do a thing? When we think about Stonehenge, some very challenging architectural construction, we don’t think about a large number of humans working together.
Disprove it. Yeah. I wonder if we discount how much amazing stuff a collection of humans can do, because it just feels like if a large number of humans are just working a little bit chipping away at stuff. At scale, they can do miraculous things. So the question is, how can a large number of humans be motivated to do a thing? When we think about Stonehenge, some very challenging architectural construction, we don’t think about a large number of humans working together.
Ed Barnhart
Well, that large number of humans are motivated to work together by a small number of administrators who are dynamic and convincing in some way or another.
Well, that large number of humans are motivated to work together by a small number of administrators who are dynamic and convincing in some way or another.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Ed Barnhart
One of my favorite quotes is, and I’m probably going to misquote it here, but I think it’s Margaret Mead who said, never underestimate the power of small groups working together. And the truth is that those are the only people that have ever changed the world. That small dedicated groups of people are what changed the world, and they inspire big groups of people to embrace their vision.
One of my favorite quotes is, and I’m probably going to misquote it here, but I think it’s Margaret Mead who said, never underestimate the power of small groups working together. And the truth is that those are the only people that have ever changed the world. That small dedicated groups of people are what changed the world, and they inspire big groups of people to embrace their vision.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think we sometimes underestimate how much humans can do across time and across scale.
Yeah, I think we sometimes underestimate how much humans can do across time and across scale.
Ed Barnhart
And we are way less capable than we used to be. I mean, the average human had all sorts of skills that at least I personally do not. I’m wearing a shirt, but I can’t make a shirt. That’s for somebody else to do.
And we are way less capable than we used to be. I mean, the average human had all sorts of skills that at least I personally do not. I’m wearing a shirt, but I can’t make a shirt. That’s for somebody else to do.
Early humans in North America
Lex Fridman
You’ve also lectured, which I really enjoyed, about North America. And also helped teach me that there was a lot more complex societies going on here for a long period of time. So maybe can we start at the beginning? Who were the early humans in North America?
You’ve also lectured, which I really enjoyed, about North America. And also helped teach me that there was a lot more complex societies going on here for a long period of time. So maybe can we start at the beginning? Who were the early humans in North America?
Ed Barnhart
Well, we go through that paleo Indian and archaic period for thousands of years. As we started this conversation, probably 30,000 years is a conservative now, humans first entered the Americas, but the first cultures we get here are mound-builders around the Mississippi and to the east, and then also a totally separate group in what we call the American Southwest now, the four Corners, who will develop into mostly the people we call the Pueblo people who are still there today, like Zuni and Hopi people.
Well, we go through that paleo Indian and archaic period for thousands of years. As we started this conversation, probably 30,000 years is a conservative now, humans first entered the Americas, but the first cultures we get here are mound-builders around the Mississippi and to the east, and then also a totally separate group in what we call the American Southwest now, the four Corners, who will develop into mostly the people we call the Pueblo people who are still there today, like Zuni and Hopi people.
So we’ve got these two clusters. The very first major community in North America is in the most unlikely place. It’s in Northern Louisiana. People think I’m crazy when I say this, but there is a pyramid in Northern Louisiana, a big one at a site called Poverty Point that is 3,500 years old. So it’s the same age as the pyramids in Egypt, and it is a giant thing just poking out of the bayous of Louisiana. And people don’t believe me when I say it, but it’s there.
Lex Fridman
The Mound Builders, what was that society like in comparison to everything else we’ve been talking about in Mesoamerica [inaudible 02:50:41].
The Mound Builders, what was that society like in comparison to everything else we’ve been talking about in Mesoamerica [inaudible 02:50:41].
Ed Barnhart
They evolved over thousands of years. We call them Mound Builders. This is something I object to. I think we should have a better… We do. The last version of them, we call them Mississippians now. But generally speaking, we call all these guys Mound Builders, but what they built were pyramids. They look like mounds now, and they didn’t build them out of stone. That’s kind of our just inherent western bias. Something that’s built out of stone is sophisticated, and something that’s built out of dirt is rudimentary.
They evolved over thousands of years. We call them Mound Builders. This is something I object to. I think we should have a better… We do. The last version of them, we call them Mississippians now. But generally speaking, we call all these guys Mound Builders, but what they built were pyramids. They look like mounds now, and they didn’t build them out of stone. That’s kind of our just inherent western bias. Something that’s built out of stone is sophisticated, and something that’s built out of dirt is rudimentary.
But in their full living form, they did have cores of dirt, but then they also had kind of clay caps. So they had terraces. They had whole complexes of buildings up on top. There were kings that lived up there. There’s the biggest of the Mississippian cities is called Cahokia, and it’s right outside of St. Louis.
And it was huge. It had a population of 20,000 people and pyramids all over the place, a huge palisade wall around it. It was absolutely gigantic, a thriving metropolis. And we in America have kind of a collective amnesia. We never hear about these massive civilizations. Cahokia was the big first city, but then it spread from the Mississippi all the way to the Atlantic. There were hundreds and hundreds of these big cities that had five to 10,000 people each.
Lex Fridman
Were they their own thing or was there some kind of thread connecting all of them.
Were they their own thing or was there some kind of thread connecting all of them.
Ed Barnhart
They had a unified religion and culture. They were, again, not an empire. So they were warring city-states. There were kind of territories that were owned by big kings, and then the cities around them were kind of the subsidiary lords and kings. And then one kingdom could either ally with a neighbor or have a fight. So they were kind of countries, I think for, yeah, we could safely say they were different countries within this patchwork that was Eastern United States. And it’s so weird that we don’t know this because it was clearly documented by the Spanish.
They had a unified religion and culture. They were, again, not an empire. So they were warring city-states. There were kind of territories that were owned by big kings, and then the cities around them were kind of the subsidiary lords and kings. And then one kingdom could either ally with a neighbor or have a fight. So they were kind of countries, I think for, yeah, we could safely say they were different countries within this patchwork that was Eastern United States. And it’s so weird that we don’t know this because it was clearly documented by the Spanish.
I’m not talking about just archeology. We find him in archeology now. But Hernando de Soto landed in Florida and went for three years from, he went up into the Carolinas and over down into Alabama and Louisiana, and he’s the first one to see the Mississippi up there. But for three years he went through city after city after city, unfortunately decimating them, eating all their corn, giving them diseases. But the documentation’s clearly there. He met collectively, millions of people in a very sophisticated and uniform civilization.
Lex Fridman
So it’s disease and stealing of resources. But was there explicit murdering going on?
So it’s disease and stealing of resources. But was there explicit murdering going on?
Ed Barnhart
Unfortunately, yeah. He was a murderer and a psycho and a liar. He snowed them that he was some kind of deity. Actually learned a trick from the Inca who he was with Pizarro in his first run and went back to Spain, was rich, had a wife, a castle. Then he got bored and he decided to have a reign of terror on Northern America for three years. But he had people burned at the stake. He had his dogs rip them apart. He was very, very brutal. He ruled that area through fear and had absolutely no respect for anybody. He made promises and broke them all the time. He was really a brutal man.
Unfortunately, yeah. He was a murderer and a psycho and a liar. He snowed them that he was some kind of deity. Actually learned a trick from the Inca who he was with Pizarro in his first run and went back to Spain, was rich, had a wife, a castle. Then he got bored and he decided to have a reign of terror on Northern America for three years. But he had people burned at the stake. He had his dogs rip them apart. He was very, very brutal. He ruled that area through fear and had absolutely no respect for anybody. He made promises and broke them all the time. He was really a brutal man.
Columbus
Lex Fridman
So this whole period when Christopher Columbus came, how did that change everything?
So this whole period when Christopher Columbus came, how did that change everything?
Ed Barnhart
Well, there’s a great anthropological body of literature.
Well, there’s a great anthropological body of literature.
Ed Barnhart
Anthropological body of literature. It’s called the Columbian Exchange based on Columbus. But it’s all this trade back and forth between the new world and the old world. And the old world got just wonderful stuff. All of a sudden their diet didn’t suck. All these vegetables came in. The new world got herd animals. It got pigs and cows and goats that it didn’t have, but it also got 13 infectious diseases. Europe had had wave after wave and kind of had herd immunity on a lot of things, but it didn’t actually go away. It just couldn’t spread like a wildfire through the community. So when they arrived to the Americas, all of a sudden these just a pile of horrible diseases hit people. I think in the first 20, 30 years, there were people who had contracted multiple deadly diseases at once and died of them.
Anthropological body of literature. It’s called the Columbian Exchange based on Columbus. But it’s all this trade back and forth between the new world and the old world. And the old world got just wonderful stuff. All of a sudden their diet didn’t suck. All these vegetables came in. The new world got herd animals. It got pigs and cows and goats that it didn’t have, but it also got 13 infectious diseases. Europe had had wave after wave and kind of had herd immunity on a lot of things, but it didn’t actually go away. It just couldn’t spread like a wildfire through the community. So when they arrived to the Americas, all of a sudden these just a pile of horrible diseases hit people. I think in the first 20, 30 years, there were people who had contracted multiple deadly diseases at once and died of them.
But the numbers, it’s a shameful part of history, and it wasn’t something that Europe perpetrated on them. Medical science at that time was still the four humors theory, that people were made of yellow bile, black bile, blood, and phlegm. And we did things like, well, you’ve got to bleed him. He’ll feel better then. So we had no idea what an infectious disease was, but the reality was that this horde of diseases hit everyone. And the numbers are now saying in the first 50 years that 90% of everybody was dead, and that the number of people has increased as well as far as our estimates. We’re thinking it’s somewhere around 150 million people and 90% of them died. And with them, all their knowledge. Just, I mean, imagine the moment where who dies when things get bad? It’s the young and the old. So all the knowledge keepers die suddenly.
The children die. This next generation that’s half taught and now completely demoralized thinking that this is a spiritual attack, that their gods hate them, that the only way out of it is to accept this new Christianity. But they don’t want to have to bring kids into this world where everybody’s dying. And even if they do, they can’t teach them what the old people were going to teach them because the old people are gone and didn’t finish the transmission. So in a single terrible moment in human history, the generation loses all their knowledge. So a lot of the things these people knew just blipped out.
Lex Fridman
But with that also, just the wisdom of the entire civilizations-
But with that also, just the wisdom of the entire civilizations-
Ed Barnhart
So much of-
So much of-
Lex Fridman
… fades away.
… fades away.
Ed Barnhart
… what they knew was just lost at that moment. We have the Maya who had those hieroglyphs and that we’ve learned a lot from that.
… what they knew was just lost at that moment. We have the Maya who had those hieroglyphs and that we’ve learned a lot from that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But not a significant integration of that wisdom into. So it wasn’t when the Europeans came, it wasn’t like the cultures were integrated. It was a story of domination. Of erasure, essentially.
Yeah. But not a significant integration of that wisdom into. So it wasn’t when the Europeans came, it wasn’t like the cultures were integrated. It was a story of domination. Of erasure, essentially.
Ed Barnhart
In North America, there’s a new term in the literature that I like. We call it the Mississippian Shatter zone. That Mississippian civilization was millions of people, but they got spread out all over the place over the next centuries. And now we have this Shatter zone where we have ruins, and the people that were actually from those ruins are somewhere else on a reservation far away. And I’m just about to talk to a Cherokee man who listened to some of the things I had to say and says, “All those Ho-Chunk things you were saying from that Ho-Chunk culture, my grandparents talk about this sort of thing too. Can I talk to you by phone and tell you about these things?” So we’ve got this Shatter zone where we’re going to try to put the puzzle back together, especially in terms of Mississippian religion. I really think we’re making headway in this generation, and it’s exciting to be part of piecing this old religion and its mythology back together.
In North America, there’s a new term in the literature that I like. We call it the Mississippian Shatter zone. That Mississippian civilization was millions of people, but they got spread out all over the place over the next centuries. And now we have this Shatter zone where we have ruins, and the people that were actually from those ruins are somewhere else on a reservation far away. And I’m just about to talk to a Cherokee man who listened to some of the things I had to say and says, “All those Ho-Chunk things you were saying from that Ho-Chunk culture, my grandparents talk about this sort of thing too. Can I talk to you by phone and tell you about these things?” So we’ve got this Shatter zone where we’re going to try to put the puzzle back together, especially in terms of Mississippian religion. I really think we’re making headway in this generation, and it’s exciting to be part of piecing this old religion and its mythology back together.
Vikings
Lex Fridman
Just as since a lot of people refer to Christopher Columbus as the person who discovered America, I read that the Vikings reached North America much earlier in 1000 C.E. And why do you think they didn’t expand and colonize?
Just as since a lot of people refer to Christopher Columbus as the person who discovered America, I read that the Vikings reached North America much earlier in 1000 C.E. And why do you think they didn’t expand and colonize?
Ed Barnhart
Because they got their ass kicked.
Because they got their ass kicked.
Lex Fridman
Okay. Simple.
Okay. Simple.
Ed Barnhart
It’s the truth. It is absolutely true that the Vikings were here. There’s a great site in Nova Scotia called L’Anse aux Meadows, which definitely has what’s left of a Viking colony. It was Leif Eric and his father Eric the Red, who they got kind of kicked out of Europe because they apparently couldn’t stop murdering people. And so they went to Greenland and then kind of island hopped over to Canada. But I think the culture that was in that area was named the Dorset, but they would have nothing to do with the Vikings.
It’s the truth. It is absolutely true that the Vikings were here. There’s a great site in Nova Scotia called L’Anse aux Meadows, which definitely has what’s left of a Viking colony. It was Leif Eric and his father Eric the Red, who they got kind of kicked out of Europe because they apparently couldn’t stop murdering people. And so they went to Greenland and then kind of island hopped over to Canada. But I think the culture that was in that area was named the Dorset, but they would have nothing to do with the Vikings.
They attacked the Viking settlement every day and did not give them an inch until they decided it was just worthless and they left it. The Vikings attacked Ireland, and they just found a bunch of monasteries full of gold with a bunch of guys going, “We’re men of God, we don’t fight.” And the Vikings were like, “This is great. That’s great. This will be easy, then. We’ll just loot all these Easter eggs.” But the Native Americans in Canada were not having it. They kicked their ass. In fact, Leif Erickson’s brother Thor died there. The natives killed him. He was supposed to be in charge of expanding the settlement, but they just killed him.
Lex Fridman
So a lot of the Native American cultures were also, I mean, they’re sophisticated, warring cultures also.
So a lot of the Native American cultures were also, I mean, they’re sophisticated, warring cultures also.
Ed Barnhart
Yes, they fought. Especially the Mississippians. Boy, they were tough. And so were the five nations. The Mohawk, the Huron, the ones that kicked the Vikings’ ass up there, they were probably Algonquin speakers. But they were connected just above the Great Lakes, but they were all very tough people.
Yes, they fought. Especially the Mississippians. Boy, they were tough. And so were the five nations. The Mohawk, the Huron, the ones that kicked the Vikings’ ass up there, they were probably Algonquin speakers. But they were connected just above the Great Lakes, but they were all very tough people.
Lex Fridman
When you think about the Spaniards and the Portuguese and the over a hundred million people that were killed, do you see that as a tragedy of history or is it just the way of history?
When you think about the Spaniards and the Portuguese and the over a hundred million people that were killed, do you see that as a tragedy of history or is it just the way of history?
Ed Barnhart
I think that the epidemics, I consider it a tragedy. That did not have to happen, and that was not a fair fight. Nobody knew what to do about it. There was just a tragic, perfect storm of events. I think that the Spanish and the Portuguese get unfairly maligned in what’s been called the Black Legend, that they just marched into America and murdered everyone. That’s not the fact. It was the diseases that murdered everyone.
I think that the epidemics, I consider it a tragedy. That did not have to happen, and that was not a fair fight. Nobody knew what to do about it. There was just a tragic, perfect storm of events. I think that the Spanish and the Portuguese get unfairly maligned in what’s been called the Black Legend, that they just marched into America and murdered everyone. That’s not the fact. It was the diseases that murdered everyone.
In fact, there was a really poignant story I read of a Spanish priest in the Amazon, in the Brazilian northern part of the Amazon where he made this utopian community and he was bringing people in that were getting sick, and he wrote, “I’m baptizing everyone. I have baptized 10,000 people a day, and yet God’s still killing them. Why is he doing this to them? They’re doing everything that I ask them to do. They are submitting to the will of God.” But this guy doesn’t realize that the same bowl of holy water that he’s baptizing them in, he’s just wiping the disease on everybody’s faces. He’s accelerating it when he doesn’t even realize. He thinks he’s saving them, but he’s actually killing them. That’s a tragedy. That’s not just like spoils go to the victor stuff. That’s just straight up tragedy.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah. But that one is hard to know what to do with, like Black Death. I mean infections, they don’t operate on normal human terms, right? They just go through entire populations. Back to wild ideas.
Yeah, yeah. But that one is hard to know what to do with, like Black Death. I mean infections, they don’t operate on normal human terms, right? They just go through entire populations. Back to wild ideas.
Aliens
Ed Barnhart
All right, just my style.
All right, just my style.
Lex Fridman
I mean we didn’t really talk about how life originated on Earth or how humans have evolved, and we did talk about that there could be just a lot of stuff in ancient history we haven’t even uncovered yet. Do you think it’s possible that other intelligent civilizations from outside of earth, aliens ever visited?
I mean we didn’t really talk about how life originated on Earth or how humans have evolved, and we did talk about that there could be just a lot of stuff in ancient history we haven’t even uncovered yet. Do you think it’s possible that other intelligent civilizations from outside of earth, aliens ever visited?
Ed Barnhart
You had me right until the ever visited thing. That one I’m not entirely sure about. I’m not sure whether we have any… We certainly have no archaeological proof that I would cite or contemplate as the evidence of such. But the guys that discovered DNA, Watson and Crick, Watson who actually habitually used hallucinogens to invigorate his thinking, he said that he thought that DNA on this planet was way too complex to have developed over the time period that it had at its disposal. And that his guess was that our DNA was somehow seeded from outside of our planet. And take that for what it is. But the guy who we respect on many other levels also said that. So that’s interesting. But in terms of aliens visiting us, I don’t know. It does smack of a kind of human hubris that we think we’re important enough for some advanced species to give a shit about us.
You had me right until the ever visited thing. That one I’m not entirely sure about. I’m not sure whether we have any… We certainly have no archaeological proof that I would cite or contemplate as the evidence of such. But the guys that discovered DNA, Watson and Crick, Watson who actually habitually used hallucinogens to invigorate his thinking, he said that he thought that DNA on this planet was way too complex to have developed over the time period that it had at its disposal. And that his guess was that our DNA was somehow seeded from outside of our planet. And take that for what it is. But the guy who we respect on many other levels also said that. So that’s interesting. But in terms of aliens visiting us, I don’t know. It does smack of a kind of human hubris that we think we’re important enough for some advanced species to give a shit about us.
Statistically speaking, the universe is way too big. We can’t be the only sentient beings. There’s got to be somebody else out there. Whether they care about us, that’s a question. I’ve been on Ancient Aliens a number of times. I show up and I’m an educator. I mean, refusing to be part of the conversation is an immediate fail in my book. But there was one time where they asked me at the end, “Do you have anything else do you want to say?” And I said, “Well, y’all’s premise is that aliens came down a long time ago and they gave humanity these wonderful gifts of science and medicine, engineering, all these things. Today we also have a lot of stories of the aliens coming down, but now all they’re doing is mutilating cows and sodomizing rednecks.” Like whatever we did, we super pissed them off apparently.”
Lex Fridman
The quality of the gifts has decreased rapidly. It’s an interesting thought you’ve mentioned. What archeologically would you have to see to be like, this might be an alien?
The quality of the gifts has decreased rapidly. It’s an interesting thought you’ve mentioned. What archeologically would you have to see to be like, this might be an alien?
Ed Barnhart
A technology that doesn’t belong there first and foremost. I mean, if we just run with the premise that somebody was capable of making a vehicle that could get them from somewhere far away to here, that was almost certainly mechanical. Now, I love the aliens thing where biomechanical is something that certainly could be and that would disintegrate. We wouldn’t see that at all, but I would expect some kind of technology that showed up out of the blue and changed things. That would be something. But I would think mechanical or a substance that’s not from here.
A technology that doesn’t belong there first and foremost. I mean, if we just run with the premise that somebody was capable of making a vehicle that could get them from somewhere far away to here, that was almost certainly mechanical. Now, I love the aliens thing where biomechanical is something that certainly could be and that would disintegrate. We wouldn’t see that at all, but I would expect some kind of technology that showed up out of the blue and changed things. That would be something. But I would think mechanical or a substance that’s not from here.
Lex Fridman
But of course we would only see the results of that mechanical. You mean literally a mechanical thing?
But of course we would only see the results of that mechanical. You mean literally a mechanical thing?
Ed Barnhart
Right. Some sort of thing like that. The typical thing people say is how did they move these giant stones? But just look at that on the face for a second. Aliens come from across the universe to meet humans, and the thing they tell them is how to move rocks? Are you fucking kidding me? I mean, give them antibiotics or a combustion engine or something. They came across the universe and they showed them how to move big rocks? I mean, that doesn’t make any sense. That just doesn’t make any sense.
Right. Some sort of thing like that. The typical thing people say is how did they move these giant stones? But just look at that on the face for a second. Aliens come from across the universe to meet humans, and the thing they tell them is how to move rocks? Are you fucking kidding me? I mean, give them antibiotics or a combustion engine or something. They came across the universe and they showed them how to move big rocks? I mean, that doesn’t make any sense. That just doesn’t make any sense.
Earth in 10,000 years
Lex Fridman
What do you think earth will look like 10,000 years from now?
What do you think earth will look like 10,000 years from now?
Ed Barnhart
That’s an interesting question. I think it will be a lot more automated or it’ll be a smoldering pile. There is a possibility we could end ourselves. There’s always that possibility that we’ve really opened Pandora’s box in some regards. I did listen to one of your podcast guests with what would happen in the case of nuclear war. That was chilling. Her opinion was certainly we would burn everything to a crisp within minutes apparently. So we have that capacity. That’s scary. That’s a possible future for us. But I’m an optimist. I’d like to think that guys like you are going to make friendly robots who make my job better.
That’s an interesting question. I think it will be a lot more automated or it’ll be a smoldering pile. There is a possibility we could end ourselves. There’s always that possibility that we’ve really opened Pandora’s box in some regards. I did listen to one of your podcast guests with what would happen in the case of nuclear war. That was chilling. Her opinion was certainly we would burn everything to a crisp within minutes apparently. So we have that capacity. That’s scary. That’s a possible future for us. But I’m an optimist. I’d like to think that guys like you are going to make friendly robots who make my job better.
Lex Fridman
But 1,000, 10,000 years is a long time. And technology is improving and becoming more advanced rapidly, and the rate of that improvement is increasing ever more so.
But 1,000, 10,000 years is a long time. And technology is improving and becoming more advanced rapidly, and the rate of that improvement is increasing ever more so.
Ed Barnhart
That’s the part that frightens me actually. I don’t know, does that frighten you?
That’s the part that frightens me actually. I don’t know, does that frighten you?
Lex Fridman
Yes. Terrifying.
Yes. Terrifying.
Ed Barnhart
I heard somebody say, I forget who it was. But systems of any kind, human systems, biological systems can be put on a graph that’s change over time and any graph that the change is way faster than the time and the line starts going straight up, that is a system in crisis. In almost any biological system that has that fast to change over that little of time, any other thing you’d describe it as a crisis. When you apply that chart to technologies change, it’s a crisis.
I heard somebody say, I forget who it was. But systems of any kind, human systems, biological systems can be put on a graph that’s change over time and any graph that the change is way faster than the time and the line starts going straight up, that is a system in crisis. In almost any biological system that has that fast to change over that little of time, any other thing you’d describe it as a crisis. When you apply that chart to technologies change, it’s a crisis.
Lex Fridman
From that perspective, absolutely. But I also have a faith in human ingenuity that we humans like to create a really difficult situation and then come up with ways to get out of that difficult situation. And in so doing innovate and create a lot of awesome stuff and sometimes cause a lot of suffering. But on the whole, on average, make a better world. But with nuclear weapons, the bad stuff might actually lead to the death of everybody.
From that perspective, absolutely. But I also have a faith in human ingenuity that we humans like to create a really difficult situation and then come up with ways to get out of that difficult situation. And in so doing innovate and create a lot of awesome stuff and sometimes cause a lot of suffering. But on the whole, on average, make a better world. But with nuclear weapons, the bad stuff might actually lead to the death of everybody.
Ed Barnhart
I guess there’s always that chance, but I am an optimist. I think you’re an optimist too. I think exactly as you just said. I think that the greatest capacity of humans is our ability to innovate. And we are never more innovative than when we’re under distress. I think that a lot of the developments of humans over the last thousands of years have been about we didn’t change the world when we were comfortable. It was when we were in crisis. Necessity is the mother of invention. But I think we’ll be all right. I think that this impending climate crisis is real and happening. I actually personally think that I’m going to answer a question that you didn’t even ask me.
I guess there’s always that chance, but I am an optimist. I think you’re an optimist too. I think exactly as you just said. I think that the greatest capacity of humans is our ability to innovate. And we are never more innovative than when we’re under distress. I think that a lot of the developments of humans over the last thousands of years have been about we didn’t change the world when we were comfortable. It was when we were in crisis. Necessity is the mother of invention. But I think we’ll be all right. I think that this impending climate crisis is real and happening. I actually personally think that I’m going to answer a question that you didn’t even ask me.
I think we’re wasting our time thinking that we can reverse this. We’re delusional. I’m all for electric cars and being good stewards of the environment, but we are wasting our time not technologically adapting to what’s about to happen. We’re spending too much time pretending, the average American thinks if we all just drive electric cars, we’ll be okay. That’s bullshit. That’s not going to happen. We need to start making technologies that desalinize water, a host of things that we need to use our technological capacity to accept it and adapt, instead of Pollyanna thinking we can make it go away.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, kind of accept that the world will change and a lot of big problems will arise and just develop technology that addresses them.
Yeah, kind of accept that the world will change and a lot of big problems will arise and just develop technology that addresses them.
Ed Barnhart
I think you have some guys that have their finger on the pulse there. We need to start thinking about how we’re going to survive this, not that we’re going to make it go away.
I think you have some guys that have their finger on the pulse there. We need to start thinking about how we’re going to survive this, not that we’re going to make it go away.
Lex Fridman
And not just survive, thrive. Again, we’re pretty innovative in that regard. But if some catastrophic thing happens or we just leave this planet, what do you think would be found by aforementioned alien civilizations when they visit? The anthropologists, the grad student anthropologists that visit Earth and study, how much of what we know, have, and love and think of as human civilization will be lost do you think?
And not just survive, thrive. Again, we’re pretty innovative in that regard. But if some catastrophic thing happens or we just leave this planet, what do you think would be found by aforementioned alien civilizations when they visit? The anthropologists, the grad student anthropologists that visit Earth and study, how much of what we know, have, and love and think of as human civilization will be lost do you think?
Ed Barnhart
Well, time moves on and things that are perishable perish. So you didn’t put a time element in there, but I would say that everything that can perish will, and whoever shows up here will be stuck with only the things that didn’t perish. So we’ll have buildings, plaques, but they won’t have any books. They won’t have any billboards. They’ll have the incomplete record I have. I one time did a talk in Sioux Falls and I said I drove in here and there was a big obelisk in front of the town. And everywhere I go, I see the names Lewis and Clark. And a thousand years from now, if I was an archeologist investigating this place, I would think that it was founded by the Egyptians and their kings were named Lewis and Clark. But the truth is, you know Lewis and Clark stayed one night here, but it’s just a big deal. So I would be so wrong about what I thought about your town based on what preserved.
Well, time moves on and things that are perishable perish. So you didn’t put a time element in there, but I would say that everything that can perish will, and whoever shows up here will be stuck with only the things that didn’t perish. So we’ll have buildings, plaques, but they won’t have any books. They won’t have any billboards. They’ll have the incomplete record I have. I one time did a talk in Sioux Falls and I said I drove in here and there was a big obelisk in front of the town. And everywhere I go, I see the names Lewis and Clark. And a thousand years from now, if I was an archeologist investigating this place, I would think that it was founded by the Egyptians and their kings were named Lewis and Clark. But the truth is, you know Lewis and Clark stayed one night here, but it’s just a big deal. So I would be so wrong about what I thought about your town based on what preserved.
Lex Fridman
It’s so beautiful as a thought experiment. What would archeologists be really wrong about? And what would they could possibly be right about?
It’s so beautiful as a thought experiment. What would archeologists be really wrong about? And what would they could possibly be right about?
Ed Barnhart
Washington D.C. was clearly made by a combination of the Egyptians and the Greeks and the Romans because that’s what all the architecture is.
Washington D.C. was clearly made by a combination of the Egyptians and the Greeks and the Romans because that’s what all the architecture is.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And would they be able to reconstruct the important empires, the powerful empires, and the warring empires?
Yeah. And would they be able to reconstruct the important empires, the powerful empires, and the warring empires?
Ed Barnhart
For that matter, have me and my colleagues done that at all? I am almost certain that the Maya would just gut laugh at what I think I know what they were.
For that matter, have me and my colleagues done that at all? I am almost certain that the Maya would just gut laugh at what I think I know what they were.
Lex Fridman
I wonder, do you ever think about what we just as a human civilization are wrong about the most? Like mainstream archaeology. Just like a suspicion. What could we get completely wrong? Well, one way to get something wrong is totally lost civilization. An obviously gigantic civilization that was there along with the Maya or something like this in the 10,000 years ago.
I wonder, do you ever think about what we just as a human civilization are wrong about the most? Like mainstream archaeology. Just like a suspicion. What could we get completely wrong? Well, one way to get something wrong is totally lost civilization. An obviously gigantic civilization that was there along with the Maya or something like this in the 10,000 years ago.
Ed Barnhart
There’s certainly that. There could be things that were either wiped away or still hiding under the oceans that would completely change the way we think about things.
There’s certainly that. There could be things that were either wiped away or still hiding under the oceans that would completely change the way we think about things.
Lex Fridman
And everybody knew they existed and everybody interacted with them. It was [inaudible 03:15:31].
And everybody knew they existed and everybody interacted with them. It was [inaudible 03:15:31].
Ed Barnhart
I think it’s our estimation of their motivations that were probably most wrong on. My teacher Sheila a long time ago said, I’ve come up with all sorts of theories. I was always thinking about stuff. And she looked at me and she said, “If you don’t stop thinking like a western European and start trying to put yourself in the mindset of these people, you will never understand any of it.” Which I’ve always taken to heart. I mean, I really do. When I approach these things, I try to step out of my cultural assumptions, try to think like they would think as the best I could. And it’s very different. This whole, the Maya are cyclical, the whole sacrifice, we’re so obsessed with that. But that wasn’t an austere actual sacrifice on their part. They weren’t just, “Hey, let’s all get together and kill that guy that’s pissing us off.” I mean, they were giving the best of them. It was a different mentality. This was not brutal. This was a bonafide sacrifice on their part, a loss.
I think it’s our estimation of their motivations that were probably most wrong on. My teacher Sheila a long time ago said, I’ve come up with all sorts of theories. I was always thinking about stuff. And she looked at me and she said, “If you don’t stop thinking like a western European and start trying to put yourself in the mindset of these people, you will never understand any of it.” Which I’ve always taken to heart. I mean, I really do. When I approach these things, I try to step out of my cultural assumptions, try to think like they would think as the best I could. And it’s very different. This whole, the Maya are cyclical, the whole sacrifice, we’re so obsessed with that. But that wasn’t an austere actual sacrifice on their part. They weren’t just, “Hey, let’s all get together and kill that guy that’s pissing us off.” I mean, they were giving the best of them. It was a different mentality. This was not brutal. This was a bonafide sacrifice on their part, a loss.
Lex Fridman
Plus the whole mystery of the puppy that eventually starts having sex with [inaudible 03:16:44].
Plus the whole mystery of the puppy that eventually starts having sex with [inaudible 03:16:44].
Ed Barnhart
I’m going to unweave that one of these days.
I’m going to unweave that one of these days.
Lex Fridman
One of these days. Now that puppy appeared on Pottery?
One of these days. Now that puppy appeared on Pottery?
Ed Barnhart
All over Pottery. He’s everywhere. I got to write this book. This next year is the year I’m going to write my Fang deity book and I will have a whole chapter dedicated to the puppy.
All over Pottery. He’s everywhere. I got to write this book. This next year is the year I’m going to write my Fang deity book and I will have a whole chapter dedicated to the puppy.
Lex Fridman
The mystery solved. I mean, it could just be the birth of memes of humor. I don’t know. I mean, again, humor. You don’t know what the nature of their humor, of what their jokes are.
The mystery solved. I mean, it could just be the birth of memes of humor. I don’t know. I mean, again, humor. You don’t know what the nature of their humor, of what their jokes are.
Ed Barnhart
Oh, that’s a neat one too. And that’s so human. I’ll tell you a little side story here, that when I worked with the Maya people in Palenque, I spent three years making this map of the city and hiking through the jungle every day. And they would talk to each other in their own language. [Celtal 03:17:34] was the group I was working with. But I noticed after a while they were big jokers. They loved to make jokes and they would laugh at jokes, but then they would also, one of them would say something and the other ones would go, hoo hoo. And I eventually asked, “What is that? Why do you guys always make that hoo hoo noise?” And he said, “That’s because…” He made a really smart pun. It was like he said three different things at once. It was a turn of phrase that was smart. And they didn’t make laughs at that. They had a noise for when somebody said something just super clever. So there’s also that just clever turn of speech.
Oh, that’s a neat one too. And that’s so human. I’ll tell you a little side story here, that when I worked with the Maya people in Palenque, I spent three years making this map of the city and hiking through the jungle every day. And they would talk to each other in their own language. [Celtal 03:17:34] was the group I was working with. But I noticed after a while they were big jokers. They loved to make jokes and they would laugh at jokes, but then they would also, one of them would say something and the other ones would go, hoo hoo. And I eventually asked, “What is that? Why do you guys always make that hoo hoo noise?” And he said, “That’s because…” He made a really smart pun. It was like he said three different things at once. It was a turn of phrase that was smart. And they didn’t make laughs at that. They had a noise for when somebody said something just super clever. So there’s also that just clever turn of speech.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Wit.
Yeah. Wit.
Ed Barnhart
And I think about that when I’m a hieroglyphic translator. Here’s a beautiful thing that’s going to be like a poem or a political statement, and I’m just ploddingly looking in a dictionary of what that word means. There’s probably double, triple entendres all through this text. And the real meaning is the subtext. And I’m thinking they’re talking about corn and they’re talking about the nature of life.
And I think about that when I’m a hieroglyphic translator. Here’s a beautiful thing that’s going to be like a poem or a political statement, and I’m just ploddingly looking in a dictionary of what that word means. There’s probably double, triple entendres all through this text. And the real meaning is the subtext. And I’m thinking they’re talking about corn and they’re talking about the nature of life.
Lex Fridman
It could be satire, it could be as it was in the Soviet Union when there’s a dictator, maybe there’s an overpowering king. You’re not allowed to actually speak. You have to hide the thing you’re actually trying to say in the subtext, in all of that.
It could be satire, it could be as it was in the Soviet Union when there’s a dictator, maybe there’s an overpowering king. You’re not allowed to actually speak. You have to hide the thing you’re actually trying to say in the subtext, in all of that.
Ed Barnhart
There was a funny Maya ceramic that had, the ceramics are neat, because the monuments can be kind of broken records. I’m the king, I was born this time, I beat these people up. I married this woman, I died. But the ceramics will tell us things out of mythology stories. And there was this one with a rabbit looking at the merchant God. And nobody could translate the text. And finally this eastern European, actually a Ukrainian guy translated it and the rabbit’s saying to the merchant God, “Bend over and smell my ass.” And like, oh man, we were expecting this wonderful piece of mythology. But no, it translates bend over and smell my ass. That’s great. That’s human.
There was a funny Maya ceramic that had, the ceramics are neat, because the monuments can be kind of broken records. I’m the king, I was born this time, I beat these people up. I married this woman, I died. But the ceramics will tell us things out of mythology stories. And there was this one with a rabbit looking at the merchant God. And nobody could translate the text. And finally this eastern European, actually a Ukrainian guy translated it and the rabbit’s saying to the merchant God, “Bend over and smell my ass.” And like, oh man, we were expecting this wonderful piece of mythology. But no, it translates bend over and smell my ass. That’s great. That’s human.
Lex Fridman
As we mentioned previously, human nature does not change. You mentioned Palenque and mapping it. Just out of curiosity, what is that process like? It seems fascinating.
As we mentioned previously, human nature does not change. You mentioned Palenque and mapping it. Just out of curiosity, what is that process like? It seems fascinating.
Ed Barnhart
Oh, it was a great adventure. I loved it, but it was difficult. I woke up every morning thinking I will be hurt today somehow. I don’t know how. I don’t know badly, where on my body it will occur, but it’s going to happen. It was the jungle.
Oh, it was a great adventure. I loved it, but it was difficult. I woke up every morning thinking I will be hurt today somehow. I don’t know how. I don’t know badly, where on my body it will occur, but it’s going to happen. It was the jungle.
Lex Fridman
So in the jungle, what’s the process like? What do you have to do to map it?
So in the jungle, what’s the process like? What do you have to do to map it?
Ed Barnhart
Well, it was tricky too because it was also a national forest. So the forestry department didn’t want us to cut down anything more than we had to. So we basically just cut tunnels through the foliage and we’d map everything twice. The first thing we’d do is I’d go in, find a building, draw it on a piece of graph paper. And I’d say, “You guys go north. You guys go east, west. Find other buildings. And when you find them, pace back to this one.” And so I’d start making a map and I’d make the whole… One piece of graph paper was enough to. Then we’d bring the machine in, we’d bring the laser theodolite and get really accurate information. But on that piece of paper, I would write, “Don’t bring the machine this way. There’s a tree fall.” Or, “Stand on top of this building and you’ll see four different buildings at once from this one.”
Well, it was tricky too because it was also a national forest. So the forestry department didn’t want us to cut down anything more than we had to. So we basically just cut tunnels through the foliage and we’d map everything twice. The first thing we’d do is I’d go in, find a building, draw it on a piece of graph paper. And I’d say, “You guys go north. You guys go east, west. Find other buildings. And when you find them, pace back to this one.” And so I’d start making a map and I’d make the whole… One piece of graph paper was enough to. Then we’d bring the machine in, we’d bring the laser theodolite and get really accurate information. But on that piece of paper, I would write, “Don’t bring the machine this way. There’s a tree fall.” Or, “Stand on top of this building and you’ll see four different buildings at once from this one.”
Lex Fridman
And all of this is in dense jungle?
And all of this is in dense jungle?
Ed Barnhart
Right. And the deeper we got off the road, the deeper it was. Sometimes it would clear out, but certain places, if it was low, it would be such thick vegetation and it would grow back so fast. Sometimes we would cut just tunnels through tall grass and we’d come back five days later and they were gone. We couldn’t even find where our trails were. They would grow back that fast.
Right. And the deeper we got off the road, the deeper it was. Sometimes it would clear out, but certain places, if it was low, it would be such thick vegetation and it would grow back so fast. Sometimes we would cut just tunnels through tall grass and we’d come back five days later and they were gone. We couldn’t even find where our trails were. They would grow back that fast.
Lex Fridman
But you see the building, so you could see?
But you see the building, so you could see?
Ed Barnhart
Right. And that was the fun part. I mean, sometimes it would just be a little neighborhood with little low buildings no bigger than this table, but sometimes just five more meters in and I’m standing under a pyramid that nobody had ever mapped. Like, wow, I’ve just found another one. And some days on good days, we’d find three pyramids. And I felt that’s such a more exciting job than the typical excavation, say. All my buddies were all just in a hole for the whole week in the middle of the city. And where I’m dancing around through the jungle, I could find 10 buildings today. I might find a pyramid today. Who knows?
Right. And that was the fun part. I mean, sometimes it would just be a little neighborhood with little low buildings no bigger than this table, but sometimes just five more meters in and I’m standing under a pyramid that nobody had ever mapped. Like, wow, I’ve just found another one. And some days on good days, we’d find three pyramids. And I felt that’s such a more exciting job than the typical excavation, say. All my buddies were all just in a hole for the whole week in the middle of the city. And where I’m dancing around through the jungle, I could find 10 buildings today. I might find a pyramid today. Who knows?
Lex Fridman
What’s that feel like to find a pyramid or buildings that you are one of the only humans that are not from that civilization to ever see this thing? What’s that feel like?
What’s that feel like to find a pyramid or buildings that you are one of the only humans that are not from that civilization to ever see this thing? What’s that feel like?
Ed Barnhart
It’s great. I love that feeling. I am an explorer at heart, so finding something like that, when I was 25 years old, I found a whole Maya city. Got to name it, its name is Ma’ax Na. It’s off in the Belizean jungle. And that was just outrageous. I mean, it almost… That one almost depressed me. I had this great life ambition that I would find a lost city. And then I did it at 25 and I was like, God, now what do I do? I thought that was supposed to take me my whole life. I actually, I wrote a bunch of letters to NASA trying to get them to let me be the first archaeologist on Mars. I never got a single reply back. I’m sure I’m on NASA’s list as some weirdo.
It’s great. I love that feeling. I am an explorer at heart, so finding something like that, when I was 25 years old, I found a whole Maya city. Got to name it, its name is Ma’ax Na. It’s off in the Belizean jungle. And that was just outrageous. I mean, it almost… That one almost depressed me. I had this great life ambition that I would find a lost city. And then I did it at 25 and I was like, God, now what do I do? I thought that was supposed to take me my whole life. I actually, I wrote a bunch of letters to NASA trying to get them to let me be the first archaeologist on Mars. I never got a single reply back. I’m sure I’m on NASA’s list as some weirdo.
Lex Fridman
How’d you find a Mayan city?
How’d you find a Mayan city?
Ed Barnhart
I used a topography map of the area and I played the game. If I was a Maya, where would my favorite place to live in this big area be? I looked for the biggest mountain because they call all of their pyramids tune wheat stone mountains. I knew they loved mountains. And when I found that mountain, there were two others right next to it that made a triangle and they love those triads, and there were rivers in between them. And I thought, that’s it. That’s where I would build the city. And I hiked out there over two seasons with students. The other grad students were like, “He’s just having his students just wander in the jungle all day.” But I came back with a city.
I used a topography map of the area and I played the game. If I was a Maya, where would my favorite place to live in this big area be? I looked for the biggest mountain because they call all of their pyramids tune wheat stone mountains. I knew they loved mountains. And when I found that mountain, there were two others right next to it that made a triangle and they love those triads, and there were rivers in between them. And I thought, that’s it. That’s where I would build the city. And I hiked out there over two seasons with students. The other grad students were like, “He’s just having his students just wander in the jungle all day.” But I came back with a city.
Hope for the future
Lex Fridman
So given that you’ve looked into the deep past of humanity, what gives you hope about our future, maybe our deep future of this human civilization?
So given that you’ve looked into the deep past of humanity, what gives you hope about our future, maybe our deep future of this human civilization?
Ed Barnhart
That’s a good one, and I do have hope. I do have hope. I believe in the spirit of humankind. I as a person who have studied history, I kind of feel like history does kind of a sine wave. There’s highs and there’s lows, but no matter how low we go, we get up again and we climb. And I think that humanity will continue that. We will rise to the challenges. Now, some of the challenges may be created by ourselves as well, but we will adapt and overcome. That’s what we do.
That’s a good one, and I do have hope. I do have hope. I believe in the spirit of humankind. I as a person who have studied history, I kind of feel like history does kind of a sine wave. There’s highs and there’s lows, but no matter how low we go, we get up again and we climb. And I think that humanity will continue that. We will rise to the challenges. Now, some of the challenges may be created by ourselves as well, but we will adapt and overcome. That’s what we do.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, humans find a way, right? That’s the thing you see with history. Even when the empires collapse, the humans that come out of that, they pick themselves up and find another way. They build anew.
Yeah, humans find a way, right? That’s the thing you see with history. Even when the empires collapse, the humans that come out of that, they pick themselves up and find another way. They build anew.
Ed Barnhart
And the people I study believe in the cyclical nature of life. That you really can’t, life can’t continue without death being part of the cycle. We get our lows, we get our highs, but the cycle continues forever.
And the people I study believe in the cyclical nature of life. That you really can’t, life can’t continue without death being part of the cycle. We get our lows, we get our highs, but the cycle continues forever.
Lex Fridman
I should mention that you have a lot of great lectures on the great courses, but you have also an amazing podcast, ArchaeoEd. If people want to listen to it, this is a tough question, but what would you recommend? What episodes should they listen to? What’s the answer?
I should mention that you have a lot of great lectures on the great courses, but you have also an amazing podcast, ArchaeoEd. If people want to listen to it, this is a tough question, but what would you recommend? What episodes should they listen to? What’s the answer?
Ed Barnhart
Oh, that is a tough question.
Oh, that is a tough question.
Lex Fridman
What is the sampling? It’s like asking a chef what’s the best stuff on the menu?
What is the sampling? It’s like asking a chef what’s the best stuff on the menu?
Ed Barnhart
Well, different strokes for different folks. I do two different things on that podcast. Sometimes I just teach about cultures that you’ve never heard about. I love… I start off by saying, “It’s my podcast and I’ll talk about whatever the heck I want to talk about.” Sometimes I talk about really specific things like a tool type or an animal type, but my favorite ones have become when I just tell my stories of my adventures. I’ve got a lot of weird adventure stories and it’s been fun and they’ve been very well received. I can put my humor in there and I can talk about the things that went right, the things that went wrong. The adventures that I had are all part of this ArchaeoEd thing. ArchaeoEd’s kind of a double entendre. It’s me, I’m just Ed. But it’s also education.
Well, different strokes for different folks. I do two different things on that podcast. Sometimes I just teach about cultures that you’ve never heard about. I love… I start off by saying, “It’s my podcast and I’ll talk about whatever the heck I want to talk about.” Sometimes I talk about really specific things like a tool type or an animal type, but my favorite ones have become when I just tell my stories of my adventures. I’ve got a lot of weird adventure stories and it’s been fun and they’ve been very well received. I can put my humor in there and I can talk about the things that went right, the things that went wrong. The adventures that I had are all part of this ArchaeoEd thing. ArchaeoEd’s kind of a double entendre. It’s me, I’m just Ed. But it’s also education.
What I’m really trying to do with this too, it’s specifically the Americas. I want to be part of the reawakening that there were these great civilizations here, especially North America. I think that we have a group amnesia that there was no great civilizations here before Europe showed up. That’s simply not true. I think it should be part of our history books. In fact, I have a program called Before the Americas that would introduce as part of a American history, the part before European contact. And I think that kids in the K through 12 level should grow up not being told this fallacy that no one was here before we showed up in 1492. And one of these days I’m going to find a funder to help us put together Before the Americas and we’re going to make it part of the curriculum for every kid in the U.S. to know the full history of this country.
Lex Fridman
That’s a great project. Thank you so much. Thank you for talking today. Thank you for all the fascinating ideas that you put out into the world, and I can’t wait to hear your new course.
That’s a great project. Thank you so much. Thank you for talking today. Thank you for all the fascinating ideas that you put out into the world, and I can’t wait to hear your new course.
Ed Barnhart
Thank you so much, Lex. It was a real pleasure.
Thank you so much, Lex. It was a real pleasure.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Ed Barnhart. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you some words from Joseph Campbell. “Life is but a mask worn on the face of death, and is death then but another mask? How many can say, asks the Aztec poet, that there is or is not a truth beyond?” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Ed Barnhart. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you some words from Joseph Campbell. “Life is but a mask worn on the face of death, and is death then but another mask? How many can say, asks the Aztec poet, that there is or is not a truth beyond?” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Michael Saylor: Bitcoin, Inflation, and the Future of Money | Lex Fridman Podcast #276
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #276 with Michael Saylor.
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And probably not 1% of the people in the world could deliver a kilowatt-hour in a day. And the commercial value of a kilowatt-hour, the retail value is 11 cents today, and the wholesale value is 2 cents. And so you have to look at the contribution of politicians and philosophers and economists to the human condition, and it’s like at best to wash one way or the other. And then if you look at the contribution of John D. Rockefeller when he delivered you a barrel of oil, and the energy in oil, liquid energy. Or the contribution of Tesla, as we deliver electricity. And what’s the impact on the human condition if I have electric power, if I have chemical power, if I have wind energy? If I can actually set up a reservoir, create a dam, spin a turbine, and generate energy from a hydraulic source, that’s extraordinary. And so our ability to cross the ocean, our ability to grow food, our ability to live, it’s technology that gets the human race from a brutal life where life expectancy is 30, to a world where life expectancy is 80.
So the truth of the matter is, inflation is not a scalar. Inflation is an n-dimensional vector. Money velocity is not a scalar. Saying, “What’s the velocity of money?” Oh, it’s slow or it’s fast. It ignores the question of what medium is the money moving through? And the same way that, what’s the speed of sound? Okay, well, what is sound, right? Sound is a compression wave. It’s energy moving through a medium, but the speed is different. So for example, the speed of sound through air is different than the speed of sound through water. And sound moves faster through water, it moves faster through a solid, and it moves faster through a stiffer solid. So there isn’t one.
So it’s common sense, but most economics, most classical economics, it’s always taught with linear models, fairly simplistic linear models. And oftentimes, I’m really shocked today that the entire mainstream dialogue of economics has been captured by scalar arithmetic. For example, if you read any article in New York Times or the Wall Street Journal, right, they just refer to there’s an inflation number or the CPI, or the inflation rate is X. And if you look at all the historic studies of the impact of inflation, generally they’re all based upon the idea that inflation equals CPI, and then they try to extrapolate from that and you just get nowhere with it.
So the bond market had hyperinflation within minutes of these financial decisions. The asset market had hyperinflation. We had what you call a K-shaped recovery, what we affectionately call a K-shaped recovery. Main street shut down, Wall Street recovered all within six weeks. The inflation was in the assets, in the stocks, in the bonds. If you look today, you see that typical house, according to the Case-Shiller index today is up 19.2% year over year. So if you’re a first time home buyer, the inflation rate is 19%. The formal CPI announced a 7.9%. You can pretty much create any inflation rate you want by constructing a market basket, a weighted basket of products or services or assets that yield you the answer. I think that the fundamental failing of economists is, first of all, they don’t really have a term for asset inflation.
So I mean, if I said three years ago, you should go see 10 concerts a year, and the concert tickets now cost $200 each. Now it’s $2,000 a year to go see concerts. Now I’m in charge of calculating inflation. So I redefine your entertainment quota for the year to be eight Netflix streaming concerts, and now they don’t cost $2,000. They cost nothing, and there is no inflation, but you don’t get your concerts right? So the problem starts with continually changing the definition of the market basket, but in my opinion, that’s not the biggest problem. The more egregious problem is the fundamental idea that assets aren’t products or services. Assets can’t be inflated.
In fact, in that case, that was over the course of about 12 years. As the inflation rate ground down, the asset traded up. But the conventional view is, “Oh, that’s not a problem because it’s good that the bond is highly priced because we own the bond.” Or what’s the problem with the inflation rate in housing being 19%? It’s an awful problem for a 22-year-old that’s starting their first job, that’s saving money to buy a house. But it would be characterized as a benefit to society by a conventional economist who would say, “Well, housing asset values are higher because of interest rate fluctuation, and now the economy’s got more wealth.” And so that’s viewed as a benefit.
If you look at the S&P index, which is a market basket of scarce, desirable stocks, it returned about 10%. If you talk to 10% a year for a 100 years, the money supply is expanding at 7% a 100 years. If you actually talk to economists or you look at the economy and you ask the question, “How fast does the economy grow in its entirety year over year?” Generally about two to 3%, the sum total impact of all this technology and human ingenuity might get you a two and a half, 3% improvement a year.
Now, that gets you to start to ask a bunch of other fundamental questions. Like, if I borrow a billion dollars and pay 3% interest and the money supply expands at seven to 10% a year, and I ended up making a 10% return on a billion dollars investment, paying 3% interest, is that fair? And who suffered so that I could do that? Because in an environment where you’re just inflating the money supply and you’re holding the assets constant, it stands the reason that the price of all the assets is going to appreciate somewhat proportional to the money supply, and the difference in asset appreciation is going to be a function of the scarce, desirable quality of the assets, and to what extent can I make more of them, and to what extent are they truly limited in supply?
You go at 50,000 feet, you’re 150 degrees colder than sea level. That’s why you look at your instruments and instead of 80 degrees, you’re minus 70 degrees. Why is the temperature falling? Temperature’s falling because it’s not a closed system, it’s an open system. As the air expands, the density falls, the energy per cubic, whatever falls, and therefore the temperature falls. The heat’s falling out of the solution. So when you’re inflating, let’s say you’re inflating the money, the currency supply by 6%, you’re sucking 6% of the energy out of the fluid that the economy is using to function.
If I rebuild the entire supply chain in Pennsylvania and I hire a bunch of employees and then I unionize the employees, then not only am I… I idle the factory in the Far East, it goes to 50% capacity. So whatever it sells, it has to raise the price on, and then I drive up the cost of labor for every other manufacturer in the U.S. because I’m competing against them, right? I’m changing that condition. So everything gets less efficient, everything gets more expensive, and of course, the government couldn’t really pay for its policies and its wars with taxes. We didn’t pay for World War I with tax. We didn’t pay for World War II with tax. We didn’t pay for Vietnam with tax. In fact, when you trace this, what you realize is the government never pays for all of its policies with taxes. It pays for-
And so I think it’s an overconfidence that causes an over-exuberance in pursuit of policies. As the ambition of the government expands, so must the currency supply. I could say the money supply, but let’s say the currency supply. You can triple the number of pesos in the economy, but it doesn’t triple the amount of manufacturing capacity in the set economy, and it doesn’t triple the amount of assets in the economy. It just triples the pesos. So as you increase the currency supply, then the price of all those scarce desirable things will tend to go up rapidly. And the confidence of all of the institutions, the corporations and the individual actors and trading partners will collapse.
We need to introduce engineering and science techniques into economics if we want to further the human condition. All government policy is inflationary. And another pernicious myth is inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena. A famous quote by Milton Friedman, I believe, it’s like, it’s a monetary phenomena that is inflation comes from expanding the currency supply. It’s a nice phrase and it’s oftentimes quoted by people that are anti-inflation. But again, it just signifies a lack of appreciation of what the issue is. If I had a currency which was completely non-inflationary, if I never printed another dollar and if I eliminated fractional reserve banking from the face of the earth, we’d still have inflation, and we’d have inflation as long as we have government that is capable of pursuing any kind of policies that are in themself inflationary, and generally, they all are.
So they will mismeasure just the horrific extent of the monetary policy in pursuit of the foreign policy and the domestic policy, which they overestimate their budget and their means to accomplish their ends, and they underestimate the cost. And they’re oblivious to the horrific damage that they do to the civilization because the mental models that they use that are conventionally taught are wrong. The mental model that it’s okay, we can print all this money because the velocity of the money is low because money velocity is a scalar and inflation is the scalar, and we don’t see 2% inflation yet, and the money velocity is low, and so it’s okay if we print trillions of dollars. Well, the money velocity was immediate. The velocity of money through the crypto economy is 10,000 times faster than the velocity of money through the consumer economy. I think Nic pointed out when you spoke to him, he said it takes two months for a credit card transaction to settle, right? So you spend a million dollars in the consumer economy, you can move it six times a year.
You put the million dollars into gold, gold will sit in a vault for a decade. Okay? So the velocity of money through gold is 0.1. You put the money in the stock market and you can trade it once a week. The settlement is T+2. Maybe you get to 2:1 leverage, you might get to a money velocity of 100 a year. In the stock market, you put your money into the crypto economy and these people are settling every four hours. And if you’re offshore, they’re trading with 20x leverage. So if you settle every day and you trade the 20x leverage, you just went to 7,000. So the velocity of the money varies. I think the politicians, they don’t really understand inflation and they don’t understand economics, but you can’t blame them because the economists don’t understand economics. Because if they did, they would be creating multivariate computer simulations where they actually put in the price of every piece of housing and every city in the world the full array of foods and the full array of products and the full array of assets.
And then on a monthly basis they would publish all those results. And that’s a high bandwidth requirement, and I think that people don’t really want to embrace it. There’s that phrase, you can’t tell people what to think, but you can tell them what to think about. The most pernicious thing is I get you to misunderstand the phenomena so that even when it’s happening to you, you don’t appreciate that it’s a bad thing and you think it’s a good thing. So if housing prices are going up 20% year over year, and I say this is great for the American public ’cause most of them are homeowners, then I have misrepresented a phenomena. Inflation is 20%, not 7%, and then I have misrepresented it as being a positive rather than a negative, and people will stare at it. And you could even show them their house on fire and they would perceive it as being great because it’s warming them up and they’re going to save on their heat cost.
Well, 2% means you have a useful life of it’s half life of 35 years. 2% is a half life of 35 years. That’s basically the half life of money in gold. If I store your life force in gold, under perfect circumstances, you have a useful life of 35 years. 0% is a useful life of forever. So 0% is immortal, 2% is 35 years average life expectancy. So the idea that you would think the life expectancy of the currency and the civilization should be 35 years instead of forever is a silly notion. But the tragic notion is it was 7 into 70 or 10 years.
The money has had a half life of 10 years except for the fact that in weak societies and Argentina or the like, the half-life of the money is three to four years; in Venezuela, one year. So the United States dollar and the United States economic system was the most successful economic system in the last 100 years in the world. We won every war. We were the world’s superpower. Our currency lost 99.7% of its value, and that means horrifically every other currency lost, right? In essence, the other ones were 99.9, except for most that were 100% because they all completely failed. And you’ve got a mainstream economic community that thinks that inflation is a number and 2% is desirable. It’s like, remember George Washington? You know how he died?
So when you’re actually inflating the money supply at 7% but you’re calling it 2% because you want to help the economy, you’re literally bleeding the free market to death. But the sad fact is George Washington went along with it ’cause he thought that they were going to do him good. And the majority of the society, most companies, most conventional thinkers, the working class, they go along with this because they think that someone has their best interest in mind. And the people that are bleeding them to death, they believe that prescription because their mental models are just so defective and they’re understanding of energy and engineering and the economics that are at play is crippled by these mental models.
If you look the Greek civilization, they built it around ports and seaports and water and created a trading network. The Romans were really good at harnessing all sorts of engineering. The aqueducts are a great example. If you go to any big city, you travel through cities in the Med, you find that the carrying capacity of the city or the island is 5,000 people without running water. And then if you can find a way to bring water to it it increases by a factor of 10. And so human flourishing is really only possible through that channeling of energy that eventually takes the form of air power. That ship, look at the intricacy of those sails. Just the model is intricate. Now, think about all of the experimentation that took place to figure out how many sails to put on that ship and how to rig them and how to repair them and how to operate them.
And if you look at the Romans, they persevered with artillery and they could stand off from 800 meters and blast you smithereens. You study the history of the Balearic slingers and you think we invented bullets, but they invented bullets to put in slings thousands of years ago that could have stood off 500 meters and put a hole in your head. And so there was never a time when humanity wasn’t vying to come up with an asymmetric form of projecting their own power via technology.
It’s a crystallization when we collapse into a lower energy state as a civilization and we give off massive amounts of energy. If you look at what Carnegie did, the richest man in the world created libraries everywhere at the time, and he gave away his entire fortune. And now we can give a better library to every six-year-old for nothing, and so what’s the value of giving a million books to 8 billion people? That’s the explosion in prosperity that comes from digital transformation. And when we do it with maps, I transform the map. I put it into a car. You get in the car and the car drives you where you want to go with the map. And how much better is that than a Rand McNally Atlas right here? It’s like a million times better.
So I think about this and I think you want to improve the human condition? You need people with postgraduate level education. You need PhDs, and I know this sounds kind of elitist, but you want to cure cancer and you want to go to the Stars fusion drive. We need new propulsion, right? We need extraordinary breakthroughs in every area of basic science, be it biology, or propulsion, or material science, or computer science. You’re not doing that with an undergraduate degree. You’re certainly not doing it with a high school education, but the cost of a PhD is like a million bucks. There’s like 10 million PhDs in the world. If you check it out. There’s 8 billion people in the world. How many people could get a PhD or would want to? Maybe not 8 billion, but a billion, 500 million. Let’s just say 500 million to a billion. How do you go from 10 million to a billion highly educated people, all of them specializing in, and I don’t have to tell you how many different fields of human endeavor there are. I mean, your life is interviewing these experts and there’s so many, right? It’s amazing. So how do I give a multimillion dollar education to a billion people? And there’s two choices. You can either endow a scholarship, in which case you pay $75,000 a year. Okay. 75, let’s pay a million dollars and a million dollars a person. I can do it that way. And you’re never, even if you had a trillion dollars, if you had $10 trillion to throw at the problem and we’ve just thrown $10 trillion at certain problems, you don’t solve the problem, right? If I put $10 trillion on the table and I said, educate everybody, give them all a PhD, you still wouldn’t solve the problem. Harvard University can’t educate 18,000 people simultaneously or 87,000 or 800,000 or 8 million. So you have to dematerialize the professor and dematerialize the experience. So you put it all as streaming on demand, computer generated education, and you create simulations where you need to create simulations and you upload it.
It’s like the human condition is being held back by 500,000 well-meaning average algebra teachers. I love them. I mean, please don’t take of offense if you’re an algebra teacher, but instead of 500,000 algebra teachers going through the same motion over and over again, what you need is one or five or 10 really good algebra teachers and they need to do it a billion times a day or a billion times a year for free. And if we do that, there’s no reason why you can’t give infinite education, certainly in science, technology, engineering, and math, right, infinite education to everybody with no constraint. And I think the same is true, right, with just about every other thing. If you want to bring joy to the world, you need digital music. If you want to bring enlightenment to the world, you need digital education. If you want to bring anything of consequence in the world, you got to digitally transform it and then you got to manufacture it, something like 100 times more efficiently as a start, but a million times more efficiently is probably optimal. That’s hopeful. Maybe you have a chance.
If you look at all of these space endeavors and everything, we’re thinking about getting to Mars, getting off the planet, getting to other worlds. Number one thing you got to do is you got to make a fundamental breakthrough in an engine. People dreamed about flying for thousands of years, but until the internal combustion engine, you didn’t have enough energy, enough power in a light enough package in order to solve the problem. And the human race has all sorts of those fundamental engines and materials and techniques that we need to master. And each one of them is a lifetime of experimentation, of someone capable of making a seminal contribution to the body of human knowledge.
So when we actually started developing CPUs, transistor gave way to CPUs. And if you look at the power, right, the bandwidth that we had on computers and Moore’s law, right? What if the efficiency of jet engines had doubled every three years, right, in the last 40 years where we be right now? Right. So I think that if you’re a business person, if you’re looking for a commercially viable application of your mind, then you have to find that S-curve. And ideally you have to find it in the first five, six, 10 years. But people always miss this. Let’s take Google Glass, right? Google Glass was an idea 2013. The year is 2022. And people were quite sure this was going to be a big thing but,-
So the reason that the digital revolution is so important is because the underlying platforms, the bandwidth and the performance of the components, and I say the components are the radio protocols, mobile protocols, the batteries, the CPUs, and the displays. Right. Those four components are pretty critical. They’re all critical in the creation of an iPhone. I wrote about it in the book, The Mobile Wave, and they catalyzed this entire mobile revolution. Because they have advanced and continue to advance, they created the very fertile environment for all these transformations. And the digital transformations themselves, right, they call for creativity in their own. Right.
I think the interesting thing about let’s take digital maps. Right. When you conceptualize something as a dematerialized map, right, it becomes a map because I can put it on a display like an iPad or I can put it in a car like a Tesla. But if you really want to figure it out, you can’t think like an engineer. You need to think like a fantasy writer. This is where it’s useful if you played Dungeons and Dragons and you read Lord of the Rings and you studied all the fantasy literature, because when I dematerialize the map, first I put 10 million pages of satellite imagery into the map. Right.
That’s a simple physical transform. But then I start to put telemetry into the map, and I keep track of the traffic rates on the roads, and I tell you whether you’ll be in a traffic jam if you drive that way, and I tell you which way to drive. And then I start to get feedback on where you’re going. And I tell you, the restaurant’s closed and people don’t like it anyway. And then I put an AI on top of it and I have it drive your car for you. And eventually the implication of digital transformation of maps is I get into a self-driving car and I say, take me someplace cool where I can eat.
So you might be better off to work on the aqueduct or to focus upon sales or something. So if I look at this today, I say there’s massive profound civilization advances to be made through digital transformation of information. And you can see them. This is not the story of today, right? It’s 10 years old, what we’ve been seeing.
So I don’t think every objective is equally practical. And I think the benefit of being an engineer or thinking about practical achievements is when the government pursues an impractical objective or when anybody, an entrepreneur, not so bad with an entrepreneur because they don’t have that much money to waste. When a government pursues an impractical objective, they squander trillions and trillions of dollars and achieve nothing. Whereas if they pursue a practical objective or if they simply get out of the way and do nothing and they allow the free market to pursue the practical objectives, then I think you can have profound impact on the human civilization.
And if I look at the world we’re in today, I think that there are multi- trillion 10, 20, $50 trillion worth of opportunities in the digital information realm yet to be obtained. But there’s hundreds of trillions of dollars of opportunities in the digital energy realm that not only are they not obtained, the majority of people don’t even know what digital energy is. Most of them would reject the concept. They’re not looking for it. They’re not expecting to find it. It’s inconceivable because it is a paradigm shift, but in fact, it’s completely practical. Right under our nose. It’s staring at us, and it could make the entire civilization work dramatically better in every respect.
There’s a building that’s probably 50 years old. There’s a company operating that disco or that club, which is five to 10 years old. There’s a person, a customer walking in there for an experience for a few hours. There’s music that’s oscillating at some kilohertz, and then there’s light.
So, how would you feel if the president of the United States said, “I really think Americans should all buy Apple stock,” especially if you worked at Google. But if you worked anywhere, you’d be like, “Why isn’t he saying buy mine?” Right? A security is a proprietary asset in some way, shape or form. And the whole nature of securities law, it starts from this ancient idea, thou shalt not lie, cheat or steal. Okay? If I’m going to sell you securities or I’m going to promote securities as a public figure or as an influencer or anybody else. If I create my own Yo-Yo coin or Mikey coin, and then there’s a million of them, and I tell you that I think that it’s a really good thing, and Mikey coin will go up forever and everybody buys Mikey coin and then I give 10 million to you and don’t tell the public, I’ve cheated them.
Maybe if I have Mikey coin and I think there’s only 2 million Mikey coin, and I swear to you there’s only 2 million, and then I get married and I have three kids and my third kid is in the hospital and my kid’s going to die and I have this ethical reason to print 500,000 more Mikey coin or else people are going to die, and everybody tells me it’s fine, I’ve still abused the investor, right? It’s an ethical challenge. If you look at ethics laws everywhere in the world, they all boil down to having a clause which says that if you’re a public figure, you can’t endorse a security. You can’t endorse something that would cause you to have a conflict of interest.
So, if you’re a mayor, a governor, a country, a public figure, an influencer, and you want to promote or promulgate or support something using any public influence or funds or resources you may have, it needs to be property. It can’t be security. So, it goes beyond that, right? I mean, would the Chinese want to support an American company? As soon as you look at what’s in the best interest of the human race, the civilization, you realize that if you want an ethical path forward, it needs to be based on common property, which is fair. And the way you get to a common property is through an open permissionless protocol. If it’s not open, if it’s proprietary and I know what the code says and you don’t know what the code says, that makes it a security.
If it’s permissioned, you’re not allowed on my network. Or if you can be censored or booted off my network, that also makes it a security. When I talk about property, I mean the challenge here is how do I create something that’s equivalent to a barrel of oil in cyberspace? And that means it has to be a non-sovereign bearer instrument, open, permissionless, not censorable, right? If I could do that, then I could deliver you 10,000 dematerialized barrels of oil and you would take settlement of them and you would know that you have possession of that property, irregardless of the opinion of any politician or any company or anybody else in the world.
That’s a really critical characteristic. And it actually is, it’s probably one of the fundamental things that makes Bitcoin special. Bitcoin isn’t just a crypto-asset network. It’s easy to create a crypto-asset network. It’s very hard to create an ethical crypto-asset network because you have to create one without any government or corporation or investor exercising into influence to make it successful.
If you consider every other thing you might own. A car, a house, a share of stock, gold, diamonds, property rights, intellectual property rights, movie rights, music rights. Anything imaginable, they would all be easier by orders and orders of magnitude to seize. So, digital property in the form of a set of private keys is by far the apex property of the human race. In terms of ethics, I want to make one more point. It’s like I might say to you, “Lex, I think Bitcoin is the best, most secure, most durable crypto asset network in the world, it’s going to go up forever and there’s nothing better in the world.
I might be right, I might be wrong, but the point is because it’s property, it’s ethical for me to say that. If I were to turn around and say, “Lex, I think the same about MicroStrategy stock, MSTR, that’s a security. Okay? If I’m wrong about that, I have civil liability or other liability because I could go to a board meeting tomorrow and I could actually propose we issue a million more shares of MicroStrategy stock. Whereas the thing that makes Bitcoin ethical for me to even promote is the knowledge that I can’t change it. If I knew that I could make it 42 million instead of 21 million and I had the button back here, then I have a different degree of ethical responsibility.
Now, I could tell you your life will be better if you buy Bitcoin, and it might not. You might go buy Bitcoin, you might lose the keys and be bankrupt and your life ends and your life is not better because you bought Bitcoin. But it wouldn’t be my ethical liability any more than if I were to say, “Lex, I think you ought to get a farm. I think you should be a farmer. I think a chicken in every pot, you should get a horse. I think you’d be better.” I mean, they’re all opinions expressed about property, which may or may not be right that you may or may not agree with. But in a legal sense, if we read the law, if we understand securities law… And I would say most people in the crypto industry, they didn’t take companies public and so they’re not really focused on the securities law. They don’t even know the securities law.
If you focus on the securities law, that would say you just can’t legally sell this stuff to the general public or promote it without a full set of continuing disclosures signed off on by a regulator. So, there’s a fairly bright line there with regard to securities, but when you get to the secondary issue, it’s how do you actually build a world based on digital property if public figures can’t embrace it or endorse it? You see? So, you’re not going to build a better world based upon Twitter stock, if that’s your idea of property, because Twitter stock is a security, and Twitter stock is never going to be a non-sovereign bearer instrument in Russia, right? Or in China, it’s not even legal in China.
It’s not a global permissionless, open thing. It will never be trusted by the rest of the world, and legally it’s impractical. But would you really want to put a hundred trillion dollars worth of economic value on Twitter stock if there’s a board of directors and a CEO that could just get up and take half of it tomorrow? The answer is no. So, if you want to build a better world based on digital energy, you need to start with constructing a digital property, and I’m using property here-
And that’s why I use the illustration of you got the building, you got the light and you got the sound, and they’re all just energy moving at different frequencies. Now, Bitcoin is magical and it is truly the innovation. It’s like a singularity because it represents the first time in the history of the human race that we managed to create a digital property, properly understood. It’s easy to create something digital, right? Every coupon and every scan on Fortnite and Roblox and Apple TV credits and all these things, they’re all digital something, but they’re securities, right?
Shares of stock are securities. Whenever anybody transfers, when you transfer money on PayPal or Apple Pay, you’re transferring in essence, a security or an IOU. So, transferring a bearer instrument with final settlement in the internet domain or in cyberspace, that’s a critical thing. And anybody in the crypto world can do that. All the cryptos can do that. But what they can’t do, what 99% of them fail to do is be property. They’re securities.
The second important feature of the layer one is I need the money to last forever. I need the money indestructible, immortal. So, the bigger trick is not to move a billion dollars from here to Tokyo. The big trick is to move a billion dollars from here to the year 2140. And that’s what we want to solve with layer one. And the best real metaphor in New York City would be the granite or the schist. What you want is a city block of a bedrock. And how long has it been there? Millions of years it’s been there. And how fast do you want it to move? You don’t. In fact, the single thing that’s most important is that it not deflect. If it deflects a foot in a hundred years, it’s too much. If it deflects an inch in a hundred years, you might not want that.
So, the layer one of Bitcoin is a foundation upon which you put weight. How much weight can you put on it? You put a trillion, 10 trillion, a hundred trillion, a quadrillion. How much weight’s on the bedrock in Manhattan, right? Think about hundred story buildings. So, the real key there is the foundational asset needs to be there at all. The fact that you can create a hundred trillion dollars layer one that would stand for a hundred years, that is the revolutionary breakthrough first time.
And the fact that it’s ethical, right? It’s ethical and it’s common property, global, permissionless. Extremely unlikely that would happen. People tried 50 times before and they all failed. They tried 15,000 times after, and they’ve all been… They’ve all generally failed. 98% have failed and a couple have been less successful. But for the most part, that’s an extraordinary thing. Now-
The reason he’s using the term layer one is now that there’s a lot of ideas of layer two technologies that built on top of this bedrock that allow you to move a much larger number of transactions, sort of higher frequency, I don’t know how would terminology want to use, but basically be able to use now something that is based on Bitcoin to then buy stuff, be a consumer, to transfer money, to use it as currency. Just to define some terms.
And of course, it’s kind of simple. If I lower my security requirement by a factor of a million, I can probably move the stuff a million times faster. And that’s how Lightning works. It’s non-custodial because there’s no corporation or custodian or counterparty you’re trusting, right? There’s the risk of moving through the channel. But Lightning is an example of how I go from 350,000 transactions a day to 350 million transactions a day. So, on that layer two, you could move the Bitcoin in seconds for fractions of pennies.
Now, that’s not the end all, be all because the truth is there are a lot of open protocols. Lightning probably won’t be the only one. There’s an open market competition of other permissionless, open source protocols to do this work. And in theory, any other crypto network that was deemed to be property, deemed to be non-security, you could also think of as potentially a layer two to Bitcoin. There’s a debate about are there any and what are they? And we could leave that for a later time.
When Cash App supported Bitcoin, they made it very easy to buy it, and then they gave you the ability to withdraw. When PayPal or I think Robinhood let you buy it, they wouldn’t let you withdraw it and it was a big community uproar and people, they want these layer threes to make it possible to withdraw the Bitcoins. You can take it to your own private wallet and get it off the exchange. I think the answer to the question of, “Well, is corruption possible?” Is corruption is possible in all human institutions and all governments everywhere. The difference between digital property and physical property is when you own a building in Los Angeles and the city politics turn against you, you can’t move the building.
And when you own a share of a security that’s like a US traded security and you wish to move to some other country, you can’t take the security with you either. And when you own a bunch of gold and you try to get through the airport, they might not let you take it. So, Bitcoin is advantageous versus all those because you actually do have the option to withdraw your asset from the exchange. If you had Bitcoin with Fidelity and you had shares of stock with Fidelity, and if you had bonds and sovereign debt with Fidelity, and if you own some mutual funds and some other random limited partnerships with Fidelity, none of those things can be removed from the custodian. But the Bitcoin, you can take off the exchange, you can remove from the custodian.
Now, coming back to this digital energy issue, the real key point is the energy moves in milliseconds for free on layer threes. It moves in seconds or less than seconds on layer twos, it moves in minutes on the layer one. And I don’t think it makes any sense to even think about trying to solve all three problems on the layer one because it’s impossible to achieve the security and the incorruptibility and immortality if you try to build that much speed and that functionality and performance.
In fact, if you come back to the New York model, you really wanted a block of granite, a building and a company. That’s what makes the economy right? If I said to you, “You’re going to build a building, but you can only have one company in it for the life of the building,” it would be very fragile, very brittle. What company a hundred years ago is still relevant today? You want all three layers because they all oscillate at different frequencies. And there’s a tendency to think, “Well, it’s got to be this L1 or that L1.” Not really. And sometimes people think, “Well, I don’t really want any L3.”
But companies, it’s not an even/or. Companies are better than crypto asset networks at certain things. If you want complexity, you want to implement complexity or you want to implement compliance or customer service. Companies do these things well. We know you couldn’t decentralize Apple or Netflix or even YouTube. The performance wouldn’t be there and the subtlety wouldn’t be there. And you can’t really legally decentralize certain forms of banking and insurance because they would become illegal in the political jurisdiction they’re in.
So, unless you’re a crypto anarchist and you believe in no companies and no nation states, which is just not very practical, not anytime soon. Once you allow that nation states will continue and companies have a role, then the layered architecture follows, and the free market determines who wins. For example, there are layer threes that let you acquire Bitcoin and withdraw Bitcoin. There are other applications that let you acquire but not withdraw it, and they don’t get the same market share, but they might give you some other advantage. There are certain layer threes, like Jack Dorsey’s Cash App where they just incorporated Lightning, an implementation of it.
And so all of these things create efficiency in the economy. And Lex, if you want to consider how much efficiency. If you gave me a billion dollars in 20 years, I couldn’t find a way to trade with another company or a counterparty in Nigeria. No amount of money. Give me %10 billion, I couldn’t do it because you get shut down at the banking level. You can’t link up a bank in Nigeria with a bank in the US. You get shut down at this credit card level because they don’t have the credit card, so they won’t clear. You get shut down at the compliance FCPA level because you wouldn’t be able to implement a system that interfaced with somebody else’s system if it’s not in the right political jurisdiction.
On the other hand, three entrepreneurs in Nigeria on the weekend could create a website that would trade in this Lightning economy using open protocols without asking anybody’s permission. So, you’re talking about something that’s like a million times cheaper, less friction, and faster to do it if you want to get money to move.
So I think that we’re probably going to be 36 months of software development. At the point that every Android phone and every iPhone has a Bitcoin wallet or a crypto wallet in it of sorts, that’s a big deal. If Apple embraced Lightning, that’s a big deal.
So I think when Jack looks at it, he’s very sensitive to the plight of everybody in Africa. If you look at Africans, you’re going to give them banks. You’re not going to put a bank branch on every corner. That’s an obscene waste of energy. You’re not going to run copper wires across the continent. That’s an obscene waste of energy. You’re not going to give them gold. So how are you going to provide people with a decent life?
The metaphor I think is relevant here, the biological metaphor, Lex, is type one diabetic. If you’re a type one diabetic, you can’t form fat. And if you can’t form fat, then you can’t store excess energy. Fat is the ultimate organic battery, and if you’ve got 30 pounds of it, you can go 60 days without eating. But if you can’t generate insulin, you can’t form fat cells. And if you can’t form fat cells and store energy, then you can eat yourself to death. You will eat and you will die. You’ll starve to death. So the lack of property rights is like being a type one diabetic. And so if you look at most people everywhere in the world, they don’t have property rights, they don’t have effective bank and their currency is broken.
What are the two things that in theory would serve as the equivalent of an organic battery or an economic battery to civilization? It would be I have a currency which holds its value and I can store it in a bank. So a risk-free currency derivative. I pay you your money, you take your life savings, you put it in a bank, you save up for your retirement, you live happily ever after. That’s the American dream, right? That’s the idyllic situation. The real situation is there are no banks. You can’t get a bank account. So I give you your pay in currency and then I double the supply and I give it to my cousin, or I give it to whatever cause I want or I use it to buy weapons. And then you find a loaf of bread costs triple next month as what it costs and your life savings is worthless.
And so in that environment, everybody’s ripped back to Stone Age barter. And the problem with that, even Stone Age barter, is you’re going to carry your life savings on your back. And what happens when the guy with a machine gun points it at your head and just takes your life savings? So I think from Jack’s point of view, he thinks that, this is maybe too strong, but these are my words, life is hopeless for a lot of people and Bitcoin is hope because it gives everyone an engineered monetary asset that’s a bearer instrument and it gives them a bank on their mobile phone and they don’t have to trust their government or another counterparty with their life force.
So there’s a secondary thing I think he’s interested in, which is… The first thing is the human rights issue. And the second thing would be the friction to trade cross borders is so great. You like AI. So I’ll give you a beautiful notion. Maybe one day there’ll be an artificially intelligent creature in cyberspace that is self-sufficient and rich.
And with something like digital property with Bitcoin and Lightning, you could do it. And on the other hand, with banks and credit cards, you couldn’t ever. So you can create things that are beautiful and lasting and what’s the difference in speed? Well, so I can either trade with everybody in the world at the speed of light, friction-free in 24 hours writing a Python script, or I can spend $100 billion to trade with a few million people in the world after it takes them six months of application. The impedance is like a 10,000,000 to one difference, and the metaphors are literally like launching something in orbit versus almost orbit or vacuum sealing something. Does it last forever and does it orbit forever or does it go up and come down and burn up? Right? And I think Jack is interested in putting freedom in orbit, right?
Let me ask you, just for educational purposes. Can you please explain to me what Web3 and the beef between Jack and Mark Andreessen is exactly? Did you see what happened? Sorry to have you analyze Twitter like it’s Shakespeare, but can you please explain to me why there was any drama over this topic?
So I’m going to put on my Bitcoin hat here. Right? If it’s driven by a venture capitalist, well, it’s a security. If there’s a CEO and a CTO, it’s a security. All these projects, they’re companies. Foundations are companies. Right? If you call them a project or a foundation, it doesn’t make it not a security. They’re all in essence, collections of individuals that are issuing equity in the form of a token. And if there’s a pre-mine, an IPO, an ICO, a foundation or any kind of protocol where there’s a group of engineers that have influence over it, then to a securities lawyer or to most Bitcoiners, and definitely to anybody that’s steeped in securities law, you look at it and say, “Well, that passes the Howey test.” It looks like a security. It should be sold to the public pursuant to disclosures and regulations, and you’re just ducking the IPO process. Right?
And so now we get back to the ethical issue. Well, the ethical issue is if you’re trading it as a commodity and representing it as a commodity, while truthfully it’s a security, then it’s a violation of ethics rules and it’s probably illegal.
Now, if the Head of the Marine Corps started promoting canoeing, you might think he’s wacky. Maybe that’s a waste of time and a distraction. But to the extent that canoeing is not a security, not a problem, unless you… Ultimately, the issue of decentralization is really a critical one.
So what you really want is a very, very simple idea. The simplest idea, I’m just going to keep track of who owns 21,000,000 parts of energy? And when someone proposes big functional upgrades, you don’t really want that development to go on to base layer. You want that development to go on to layer threes because now Cash App has a proprietary set of functionality and it’s a security. And if you’re going to promote the use of this thing, you’re not going to promote the layer three security because that’s an edge to a given entity and you’re trusting the counterparty. You’re going to promote the layer one or at most the layer two.
If there was a Satoshi sitting around, sitting on top of $50 billion worth of Bitcoin, I don’t think it would cripple Bitcoin as property, but I think it would undermine its digital property. And if I wanted to undermine a crypto asset network, I would do the opposite of all those things. I would launch one myself. I would sell 25% or 50% to the general public. I would pre-mine some stuff or early mine it and I would keep an influence on it. Those are all the opposite of what you would do in order to create common property. And so I see the entire story as Satoshi giving a gift of digital property to the human race and disappearing.
And the real critical thing was to allow the marketplace absent any powerful, interested actor, right? If Satoshi had held 1,000,000 coins and then stayed engaged for 10 more years, tweaking things in the background, there’d still be that question. But what we’ve got is really a beautiful thing. We’ve got a chain reaction in cyberspace or an ideology spreading virally in the world that has seasoned in a fair, ethical fashion. Sometimes it’s a very violent, brutal fashion with all the volatility, and there’s been a lot of sound and fury along the way.
So the risk has been bleeding off over time as the network monetized. I think the second question is, will it be banned? You couldn’t know. It literally could have been banned many times early on. In fact, 2013, I tweeted on the subject. I thought it would be banned. I made a very infamous tweet.
I would say that year one of institutional adoption is it started August 2020. That’s when MicroStrategy bought $250 million worth of Bitcoin and we put that out on the wire. We were the first publicly traded company to actually buy Bitcoin. I don’t think you could have found a $5 million purchase from a public company before we did that. So that was like a gun going off. And then in the next 12 months, Tesla bought Bitcoin, Square bought Bitcoin. I’d say now we’re in year two of institutional adoption. Should be 24 publicly traded Bitcoin miners by the end of this quarter. So you’re looking at 36 publicly traded companies, and you’ve got at least in the range of $50 billion of Bitcoin on the balance sheet of publicly traded companies and hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap of Bitcoin-exposed companies. So I would say the asset, decade one was entrepreneurial experimental. Decade two is a rotation from entrepreneurs to institutions and it’s becoming institutionalized. So maybe decade one, you go from zero to a trillion and in decade two you go from 1 trillion to 100 trillion.
I think there are opportunities for governments that are much more profound. If a government started to adopt Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve asset, that’s much bigger than just an asset investment that’s 100X bigger. And you could imagine, that’s like a trillion dollar opportunity. Like any government that wanted to adopt it as a Treasury Reserve asset would probably generate a trillion or more of value. And then the thing that people think about is, “Well, will oil ever be priced in Bitcoin or any other export commodity?” I think there’s $1.8 trillion or more of export commodities in the world, and right now they’re all priced in dollars. I think that this is a colorful thing, but not really that relevant. You could sell all that stuff in dollars. The relevant decision that any institution makes, whether they’re a nonprofit, a university, a corporation, or a government, is what’s your Treasury Reserve asset? And if your Treasury Reserve asset is the peso, and if the peso is losing 20% or 30% of its value a year, then your balance sheet is collapsing within five years.
And if the Treasury Reserve asset is dollars in currency derivatives and US Treasuries, then you’re getting your seven… Right now it’s probably 15% or more monetary inflation. We’re running double the historic average. You could argue triple. Somewhere between double and triple depending upon what your metric is. So, do I think it’ll happen? I think that they’re conservative, but they have to be shocked, and I think there is a shock. The late Russian sanctions are a big shock that when the West sees $300 billion worth of Russian gold in currency derivatives, I think you got the famous quote by Putin that we have to rethink our Treasury strategies. And that pushes everybody toward a commodity strategy, “What commodities do I want to hold?” I think that’s got a lot of people thinking. I think it’s got the Chinese thinking. Everybody wants to be the reserve currency, so if I buy $50 billion worth of dollars every year, then I buy 500 billion over a decade and I probably pay $250 billion of inflation costs on the backs of my citizens in a decade.
So I think it’s a perfect storm. And if you put all these events together, what do they signify? They signify the rational conclusion for any person thinking about this is, “I’m not sure if I can trust my property. I don’t know if I have property rights. I don’t know if I can trust the bank. And if I’m politically at odds with the leader of my own country, I’m going to lose my property. And if I’m politically at odds with the owner of another country, I’m still going to lose my property. And when push comes to shove, the banks will freeze my assets and seize them.”
And I think that that is playing out in front of everybody in the world such that your logical response would be, “I’m going to convert my weak currency to a strong currency. Like, I’ll convert my peso and lira to the dollar. I’m going to convert my weak property to strong property. I’m going to sell my building Downtown Moscow, and I’d rather own a building in New York City. I’d rather own in a powerful nation than be stuck with a building in Nigeria or a building in Argentina or whatever. So I’m going to sell my weak properties to buy strong properties. I’m going to convert my physical assets to digital assets. I’d rather own a digital building than own a physical building, because if I had a billion dollar building in Moscow, who can I rent that to? But if I have a billion dollar digital building, I can rent it to anybody in any city in the world, anybody with money, and the maintenance cost is almost nothing, and I can hold it for 100 years.” So it’s an indestructible building.
And then finally, I want to move from having my assets in a bank with a counterparty to self-custody assets. It is not just Ukraine, but this is like the story in Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, South America. You don’t really want to be sitting with $10 million in a bank in Istanbul. The bank’s going to freeze your money, convert it to lira, devalue the lira, and then feed it back to you over 17 years, right?
So the fast money is attracted by the volatility. The volatility has been decreasing year by year by year. I think that it’s stabilizing. I don’t think we’ll see as much volatility in the future as we have in the past. I think that if we look at Bitcoin and model it as digital gold, the market cap goes to between 10 and 20 trillion. But remember, gold is defective property. Gold is dead money. You have a billion dollars of gold that sits in a vault for a decade, it’s very hard to mortgage the gold. It’s also very hard to rent the gold. You can’t loan the gold. No one’s going to create a business with your gold.
So gold doesn’t generate much of a yield. So for that reason, most people wouldn’t store a billion dollars for a decade in gold. They would buy a billion dollars of commercial real estate property. The reason why is because I can rent it and generate a yield on it that’s in excess of the maintenance cost. So if you consider digital property, that’s 100 to $200 trillion addressable market. So I would think it goes from 10 trillion to 100 trillion as people start to think of it as digital property.
Can we switch subjects to talk about the energy side of it-
I can also see the maintenance cost of the property falls. I get on Moore’s Law and I’m operating in cyberspace. So I got rid of Newton’s laws, I got rid of all the friction and all those problems, I tapped into the benefits of cyberspace. I created a global property. I started monetizing at different frequencies. And of course, now I can mortgage it to anybody in the world. You’re not going to be able to get a mortgage on a Turkish building from someone in South Africa. You have to find someone that’s local to the culture you’re in. So when you start to move from analog property to digital property, it’s not just a little bit better, it’s a lot better. And what I just described, Lex, is like the DeFi vision. It’s the beauty of DeFi flash loans, money moving at high velocity. At some point, if the hotel is dematerialized, then what’s the difference between renting a hotel room and loaning a block of stock? I’m just finding the highest best use of the thing.
But the difference, the fundamental difference is it could be companies anywhere in the world. So if a company in Singapore comes up with a better offering, then the capital is going to start to flow to Singapore. I can’t send 10 city blocks of LA to Singapore to rent during a festival, but I can send 10 blocks of Bitcoin to Singapore. So you’ve got a truly global market that’s functioning in this asset, and it’s their second order asset. For example, maybe you’re an American citizen and you own 10 Bitcoin and someone in Singapore will generate 27% yield in the Bitcoin but legally you can’t send the money to them or the Bitcoin to them, it doesn’t matter. Because the fact that that exists means that someone in Hong Kong will borrow the 10 Bitcoin from somebody in New York, and then they will put on the trade in Singapore, and that will create a demand for Bitcoin, which will drive up the price of Bitcoin, which will result in an effective tax-free yield for the person in the US that’s not even in the jurisdiction.
So there’s nothing that’s going on in Singapore to drive up the price of your land in LA. But there is something going on everywhere in the world to drive up the price of property in cyberspace if there’s only one digital Manhattan. And so there’s a dynamic there which is profound because it’s global. But now let’s go to the next extreme. I’m still giving you a fairly conventional idea, which is, let’s just loan the money fast on a global network and let’s just rent the hotel room fast in cyberspace. But let’s move to maybe a more innovative idea. The first generation of internet brought a lot of productivity, but there’s also just a lot of flaws in it. For example, Twitter is full of garbage. Instagram DMs are full of garbage. Your Twitter DMs are full of garbage. YouTube is full of scams. Every 15 minutes there’s a Michael Saylor Bitcoin giveaway spun up on YouTube. My Office 365 inbox is full of garbage, millions of spam messages. I’m running four different email filters. My company spends million dollars a year to fight denial of service attacks and all sorts of other security things.
There are denial of service attacks everywhere against everybody in cyberspace all the time. It’s extreme. And we’ll all beset with hostility, right? You’ve been a victim of it in Twitter. You go on Twitter and people post stuff they would never say to your face. And then if you look, you find out that the account was created three days ago and it’s not even a real person. So we’re beset with phishing attacks and scams and spam bots and garbage. Why? The answer is because the first generation of internet was digital information, and there’s no energy. There’s no conservation of energy in cyberspace. The thing that makes the universe work is conservation of energy.
If I went to a hotel room, I’d have to post a credit card. And then if I smash the place up, there’d be economic consequences, maybe there’d be criminal consequences, there might be reputational consequences. A lamp might fall on me. But in the worst case, I can only smash up one hotel room. Now imagine I could actually write a Python script to send myself to every hotel room in the world every minute, not post a credit card, and smash them all up anonymously.
The thing that makes the universe work is friction, speed of sound, speed of light, and the fact that ultimately it’s conservative. You’re either energy or you’re matter, but once you’ve used the energy, it’s gone, and you can’t do infinite everything. That’s missing in cyberspace right now. And if you look at all of the moral hazards and all of the product defects that we have in all of these products, most of them, 99% of them, could be cured if we introduced conservation of energy into cyberspace. That’s what you can do with high-speed, digital property, high-speed Bitcoin. And by high-speed, I mean not 20 transactions a day, I mean 20,000 transactions a day. So how do you do that? Well, I let everybody on Twitter post 1,000 or 10,000 satoshis via a Lightning badge, “Give me an orange check.” If you put up 20 bucks once in your life, you could give 300 million people an orange check. Right now you don’t have a blue check, Lex. You’re a famous person, I don’t know why you don’t have a blue check. Have you ever applied for a blue check?
Once you’ve done those two things, then you’re in a position to monetize malice. Monetize motion or malice for that matter, but let’s just say for the sake of argument you post something and 9,700 bots spin up and pitch their whatever scam. Right now you sit and you go report, report, report, report, report, report. And if you spend an hour, you get through half of them, you waste an hour of your life, and they just spin up another 97 gazillion because they’ve got a Python script spinning it up. So it’s hopeless. But on the other hand, if you report them, and they really are a bot, Twitter’s got a method to actually delete the account. They know that they’re bots. The problem is not they don’t know how to delete the account, the problem is there are no consequences when they delete the account. So if there are consequences, Twitter, they could just seize the $10 or seize the $20 because it’s a bot, it’s a malicious criminal act or whatever as a violation of the platform rules. You end up seizing $10,000, give half the money to the reporter, and half the money to the Twitter platform.
It’s 10% is good if you did it with conventional payment rails. But what you can’t do is the next idea, which is I want the orange badge to be used to give me safe passage through cyberspace tripping across every platform. So how do I solve the denial of service attacks against a website? I publish a website, you hit it with a million requests. Okay, now how do I deal with that? Well, I can lock you out and I can make it a zero trust website, and then you have to be coming at me through a trusted firewall or with a trusted credential. But that’s a pretty draconian thing. Or I could put it behind a Lightning wall. A Lightning wall would be I just challenge you, “Lex, you want to browse my website, you have to show me your 100,000 satoshis. Do you have 100,000 satoshis?”
Click. Okay. Now you click away 100 times or 1,000 times. And after 1,000 times, I’m like, “Well, now Lex, you’re getting offensive, I’m going to take a satoshi from you or 10 satoshis, a microtransaction. You want to hit me a million times? I’m taking all your satoshis and locking you out.” What you want to do is you want to go through 200 websites a day, and what you want every time you cross a domain, you need to be able to in a split second prove that you’ve got some asset. And now when you cross back, when you exit domain, you want to fetch your asset back.
So, how do I in a friction-free fashion browse through dozens or hundreds of websites, post a security deposit for safe passage, and then get it back? You couldn’t afford to pay a credit card fee each time. When you think about 2.5% as a transaction fee, it means you trade the money 40 times and it’s gone. It’s gone.
So I think you’ve got cryptocurrencies, Tether, Circle, most famous. I think you’ve got crypto platforms, and Ethereum is the most famous of the crypto platforms, the platform with smart contract functionality, et cetera. And then I think you’ve got just crypto securities. It’s just like my favorite whatever meme coin, and I love it because I love it, and it’s attached to my game or my company or my persona or my whatever. I think if you pushed me and said, “Well, what’s the second best?” I would say the world wants two things…
But then in the US right now, we have Circle and we have other companies that are licensed entities that are backed by cash and cash equivalents, but they’re not FDIC insured banks. There’s also a debate in Congress about whether state-chartered banks should be able to issue these things. And then we have Tether and others that are outside of the US jurisdiction. They’re probably not backed by cash and cash equivalents. They’re backed by stuff, and we don’t know what stuff. And then finally you have UST and DAI, which are algorithmic stablecoins, that are even more innovative, further outside the compliance framework. So if you ask who’s going to win, the question is really, I don’t know. Will the market decide or will the regulators decide? If the regulators get out of the way and the market [inaudible 03:27:03] Well then it’s an interesting discussion.
And then I think that all bets are off if the regulators get more heavy-handed with this. And I think you could have the same discussion with crypto properties, like the DeFi exchanges and the crypto exchanges, the SEC would like to regulate the crypto exchanges, they’d like to regulate the DeFi exchanges. That means they may regulate the crypto platforms, and at what rate and in what fashion? And so I think that I could give you an opinion if it was limited to competition under the current regulatory regime. But I think that the regulations are so fast moving and it’s so uncertain that you can’t make a decision without considering the potential actions of the regulators.
So the savings are properties. If you said, “What should I invest in?” I’d say, “Well, here’s a list of good companies, private companies. You could start your own company. That’s an investment.” If you said, “What should I trade?” Well, I’m trading as a proprietary thing. I don’t have any special insight into that. If you’re a good trader, you know you are. If you said to me, “What should you speculate in?” We talk about meme stocks and meme coins, and it sits up there, it sits right in the same space with what horse should you bet on and what sports team should you gamble on, and should you bet on black six times in a row and double down each time? It’s fun, but at the end of the day, it’s a speculation, right? You can’t build a civilization-
It’s just orders of magnitude more risky because of competition, because of ambition and because of regulation. And if you take the meme coins, it’s like when some rapper comes out with a meme coin, it’s like maybe it’ll peak when I hear about it. SHIB was created as the coin such that it had so many zeros after the decimal point that when you looked at it on the exchanges, it always showed zero, zero, zero, zero. And it wasn’t until six months after it got popular that they started expanding the display so you could see whether the price had changed.
So if I look at the constructive path forward, first, I think it’d be very constructive for corporations to embrace Bitcoin and build applications on top of it. You don’t need to fix it. There’s nothing wrong with it. When you put it on a layer two and a layer three, it moves a billion times a second at the speed of light. So every beautiful, cool DeFi application, every crypto application, everything you could imagine you might want to do, you can do with a legitimate company and a legitimate website or mobile application sitting on top of Bitcoin or lightning if you want to. So I think that to the extent that people do that, that’s going to be better for the world. If you consider what holds people back, I think it’s just misperceptions about what Bitcoin is. So I’m a big fan of just educating people. If you’re not going to commercialize it, then just educate people on what it is.
So for example, Bitcoin is the most efficient use of energy in the world by far. Right? Most people, they don’t necessarily perceive that or realize that, but if you were to take any metric energy intensity, you put $2 billion worth of electricity in the network every year and it’s worth $850 billion. There is no industry in the real world that is that energy efficient. Not only that energy efficient, it’s also the most sustainable industry. We do surveys, 58% of Bitcoin mining energy is sustainable. So there’s a very good story, in fact, every other industry, planes, trains, automobiles, construction, food, medicine, everything else, it’s less clean, less efficient. So-
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:43 – Grading our understanding
- 14:01 – Inflation
- 33:37 – Government
- 54:47 – War and power
- 1:05:57 – Dematerializing information
- 1:37:18 – Digital energy and assets
- 1:48:56 – Oil barrel vs Bitcoin
- 1:58:16 – Layers of Bitcoin
- 2:15:27 – Bitcoin’s role during wartime
- 2:20:11 – Jack Dorsey
- 2:36:31 – Bitcoin conflict of interest
- 2:43:13 – Satoshi Nakamoto
- 2:48:38 – Volatility
- 3:01:03 – Bitcoin price
- 3:13:19 – Twitter verification
- 3:22:16 – Second best crypto
- 3:27:58 – Dogecoin
- 3:32:31 – Elon Musk
- 3:38:00 – Advice for young people
- 3:49:27 – Mortality
- 3:52:32 – Meaning of life
Introduction
Michael Saylor
Remember George Washington, you know how he died? Well-meaning physicians bled him to death. And this was the most important patient in the country, maybe in the history of the country, and we bled him to death trying to help him. So when you’re actually inflating the money supply at 7%, but you’re calling it 2% because you want to help the economy, you’re literally bleeding the free market to death. But the sad fact is, George Washington went along with it because he thought that they were going to do him good. And the majority of the society, most companies, most conventional thinkers, the working class, they go along with this because they think that someone has their best interest in mind and the people that are bleeding them to death, they believe that prescription because their mental models are just so defective.
Remember George Washington, you know how he died? Well-meaning physicians bled him to death. And this was the most important patient in the country, maybe in the history of the country, and we bled him to death trying to help him. So when you’re actually inflating the money supply at 7%, but you’re calling it 2% because you want to help the economy, you’re literally bleeding the free market to death. But the sad fact is, George Washington went along with it because he thought that they were going to do him good. And the majority of the society, most companies, most conventional thinkers, the working class, they go along with this because they think that someone has their best interest in mind and the people that are bleeding them to death, they believe that prescription because their mental models are just so defective.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Michael Saylor, one of the most prominent and brilliant Bitcoin proponents in the world. He is the CEO of MicroStrategy, founder of Saylor Academy, graduate of MIT. And Michael was one of the most fascinating and rigorous thinkers I’ve ever gotten a chance to explore ideas with. He can effortlessly zoom out to the big perspectives of human civilization and human history, and zoom back in to the technical details of blockchains, markets, governments and financial systems. This is the Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Michael Saylor.
The following is a conversation with Michael Saylor, one of the most prominent and brilliant Bitcoin proponents in the world. He is the CEO of MicroStrategy, founder of Saylor Academy, graduate of MIT. And Michael was one of the most fascinating and rigorous thinkers I’ve ever gotten a chance to explore ideas with. He can effortlessly zoom out to the big perspectives of human civilization and human history, and zoom back in to the technical details of blockchains, markets, governments and financial systems. This is the Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Michael Saylor.
Grading our understanding
Lex Fridman
Let’s start with a big question of truth and wisdom. When advanced humans or aliens or AI systems, let’s say, five to 10 centuries from now, look back at earth on this early 21st century, how much do you think they would say we understood about money and economics, or even about engineering, science, life, death, meaning, intelligence, consciousness, all the big interesting questions?
Let’s start with a big question of truth and wisdom. When advanced humans or aliens or AI systems, let’s say, five to 10 centuries from now, look back at earth on this early 21st century, how much do you think they would say we understood about money and economics, or even about engineering, science, life, death, meaning, intelligence, consciousness, all the big interesting questions?
Michael Saylor
I think they would probably give us a B minus on engineering, on all the engineering things, the hard sciences.
I think they would probably give us a B minus on engineering, on all the engineering things, the hard sciences.
Lex Fridman
A passing grade.
A passing grade.
Michael Saylor
We’re doing okay. We’re working our way through rockets and jets and electric cars and electricity, transport systems and nuclear power, and space flight and the like. And if you look at the walls that the great court at MIT, it’s full of all the great thinkers and they’re all pretty admirable. If you could be with Newton or Gauss or Madame Curie or Einstein, you would respect them. I would say they’d give us a D minus on economics, an F plus or a D minus.
We’re doing okay. We’re working our way through rockets and jets and electric cars and electricity, transport systems and nuclear power, and space flight and the like. And if you look at the walls that the great court at MIT, it’s full of all the great thinkers and they’re all pretty admirable. If you could be with Newton or Gauss or Madame Curie or Einstein, you would respect them. I would say they’d give us a D minus on economics, an F plus or a D minus.
Lex Fridman
You see, they have an optimistic vision. First of all, optimistic vision of engineering because everybody you’ve listed, not everybody, but most people you’ve listed is just over the past couple of centuries, and maybe stretches a little farther back. But mostly all the cool stuff we’ve done in engineering is the past couple of centuries.
You see, they have an optimistic vision. First of all, optimistic vision of engineering because everybody you’ve listed, not everybody, but most people you’ve listed is just over the past couple of centuries, and maybe stretches a little farther back. But mostly all the cool stuff we’ve done in engineering is the past couple of centuries.
Michael Saylor
Archimedes had his virtues. I studied the history of science at MIT, and I also studied aerospace engineering. And so I clearly have a bias in favor of science. And if I look at the past 10,000 years, and I consider all of the philosophy and the politics and their impact on the human condition, I think it’s a wash. For every politician that came up with a good idea, another politician came up with a bad idea. And it’s not clear to me that most of the political and philosophical contributions to the human race and the human conditions have advanced so much. I mean, we’re still taking guidance and admiring Aristotle and Plato and Seneca and the like. And on the other hand, if you think about what has made the human condition better, fire, water, harnessing of wind energy, try to row across an ocean, not easy.
Archimedes had his virtues. I studied the history of science at MIT, and I also studied aerospace engineering. And so I clearly have a bias in favor of science. And if I look at the past 10,000 years, and I consider all of the philosophy and the politics and their impact on the human condition, I think it’s a wash. For every politician that came up with a good idea, another politician came up with a bad idea. And it’s not clear to me that most of the political and philosophical contributions to the human race and the human conditions have advanced so much. I mean, we’re still taking guidance and admiring Aristotle and Plato and Seneca and the like. And on the other hand, if you think about what has made the human condition better, fire, water, harnessing of wind energy, try to row across an ocean, not easy.
Lex Fridman
And for people who are just listening or watching, there’s a beautiful sexy ship from 16th, 17th century.
And for people who are just listening or watching, there’s a beautiful sexy ship from 16th, 17th century.
Michael Saylor
This is a 19th century handmade model of a 17th century sailing ship, which is of the type that the Dutch East Indias Company used to sail the world and trade. So the original was made sometime in the 1600s. And then this model is made in the 19th century by individuals.
This is a 19th century handmade model of a 17th century sailing ship, which is of the type that the Dutch East Indias Company used to sail the world and trade. So the original was made sometime in the 1600s. And then this model is made in the 19th century by individuals.
Lex Fridman
Both the model and the ship itself is engineering at its best. And just imagine just like rockets flying out the space, how much hope this filled people with, exploring the unknown, going into the mystery, both the entrepreneurs and the business people and the engineers and just humans. What’s out there? What’s out there to be discovered?
Both the model and the ship itself is engineering at its best. And just imagine just like rockets flying out the space, how much hope this filled people with, exploring the unknown, going into the mystery, both the entrepreneurs and the business people and the engineers and just humans. What’s out there? What’s out there to be discovered?
Michael Saylor
Yeah, the metaphor of human beings leaving shore or sailing across the horizon, risking their lives in pursuit of a better life is an incredibly powerful one. In 1900, I suppose the average life expectancy is 50. During the Revolutionary War, while our founding fathers were fighting to establish life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, the constitution, average life expectancy was 32, somewhere between 32 and 36. So all the sound and the fury doesn’t make you live past 32, but what does? Antibiotics, conquest of infectious diseases. If we understand the science of infectious disease, sterilizing a knife and harnessing antibiotics gets you from 50 to 70, and that happened fast. That happens from 1900 to 1950 or something like that. And I think if you look at the human condition, you ever get on one of those rowing machines where they actually keep track of your watts output when you’re on the… 200 is a lot. Okay, 200 is a lot. So a kilowatt-hour is all the energy that a human, a trained athlete can deliver in a day.
Yeah, the metaphor of human beings leaving shore or sailing across the horizon, risking their lives in pursuit of a better life is an incredibly powerful one. In 1900, I suppose the average life expectancy is 50. During the Revolutionary War, while our founding fathers were fighting to establish life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, the constitution, average life expectancy was 32, somewhere between 32 and 36. So all the sound and the fury doesn’t make you live past 32, but what does? Antibiotics, conquest of infectious diseases. If we understand the science of infectious disease, sterilizing a knife and harnessing antibiotics gets you from 50 to 70, and that happened fast. That happens from 1900 to 1950 or something like that. And I think if you look at the human condition, you ever get on one of those rowing machines where they actually keep track of your watts output when you’re on the… 200 is a lot. Okay, 200 is a lot. So a kilowatt-hour is all the energy that a human, a trained athlete can deliver in a day.
And probably not 1% of the people in the world could deliver a kilowatt-hour in a day. And the commercial value of a kilowatt-hour, the retail value is 11 cents today, and the wholesale value is 2 cents. And so you have to look at the contribution of politicians and philosophers and economists to the human condition, and it’s like at best to wash one way or the other. And then if you look at the contribution of John D. Rockefeller when he delivered you a barrel of oil, and the energy in oil, liquid energy. Or the contribution of Tesla, as we deliver electricity. And what’s the impact on the human condition if I have electric power, if I have chemical power, if I have wind energy? If I can actually set up a reservoir, create a dam, spin a turbine, and generate energy from a hydraulic source, that’s extraordinary. And so our ability to cross the ocean, our ability to grow food, our ability to live, it’s technology that gets the human race from a brutal life where life expectancy is 30, to a world where life expectancy is 80.
Lex Fridman
You gave a D minus to the economists. So are they too, like the politicians, the wash in terms of there’s good ideas and bad ideas, and that tiny delta between good and bad is how you squeak pass the F plus onto the D minus territory?
You gave a D minus to the economists. So are they too, like the politicians, the wash in terms of there’s good ideas and bad ideas, and that tiny delta between good and bad is how you squeak pass the F plus onto the D minus territory?
Michael Saylor
I think most economic ideas are bad ideas.
I think most economic ideas are bad ideas.
Lex Fridman
Most?
Most?
Michael Saylor
Take us back to MIT and you want to solve a fluid dynamics problem. Design the shape of the hull of that ship. Or you want to design an airfoil, a wing. Or if you want to design an engine or a nozzle in a rocket ship, you wouldn’t do it with simple arithmetic, you wouldn’t do it with a scalar. There’s not a single number, right? It’s vector math. Computational fluid dynamics is n-dimensional, higher-level math, complicated stuff. So when an economist says the inflation rate is 2%, that’s a scalar. And when an economist says it’s not a problem to print more money because the velocity of the money is very low, monetary velocity is low. That’s another scalar. Okay.
Take us back to MIT and you want to solve a fluid dynamics problem. Design the shape of the hull of that ship. Or you want to design an airfoil, a wing. Or if you want to design an engine or a nozzle in a rocket ship, you wouldn’t do it with simple arithmetic, you wouldn’t do it with a scalar. There’s not a single number, right? It’s vector math. Computational fluid dynamics is n-dimensional, higher-level math, complicated stuff. So when an economist says the inflation rate is 2%, that’s a scalar. And when an economist says it’s not a problem to print more money because the velocity of the money is very low, monetary velocity is low. That’s another scalar. Okay.
So the truth of the matter is, inflation is not a scalar. Inflation is an n-dimensional vector. Money velocity is not a scalar. Saying, “What’s the velocity of money?” Oh, it’s slow or it’s fast. It ignores the question of what medium is the money moving through? And the same way that, what’s the speed of sound? Okay, well, what is sound, right? Sound is a compression wave. It’s energy moving through a medium, but the speed is different. So for example, the speed of sound through air is different than the speed of sound through water. And sound moves faster through water, it moves faster through a solid, and it moves faster through a stiffer solid. So there isn’t one.
Lex Fridman
What is the fundamental problem with the way economists reduce the world down to a model? Is it too simple or is it just even the first principles of constructing the model is wrong?
What is the fundamental problem with the way economists reduce the world down to a model? Is it too simple or is it just even the first principles of constructing the model is wrong?
Michael Saylor
I think that the fundamental problem is, if you see the world as a scalar, you simply pick the one number which supports whatever you want to do, and you ignore the universe of other consequences from your behavior.
I think that the fundamental problem is, if you see the world as a scalar, you simply pick the one number which supports whatever you want to do, and you ignore the universe of other consequences from your behavior.
Lex Fridman
In general, I don’t know if you’ve heard of Eric Watson has been talking about this with Gage Theory, so different kinds of approaches from the physics world, from the mathematical world to extend past this scalar view of economics. So Gage Theory is one way that comes from physics. Do you find that a way of exploring economics, interesting? So outside of cryptocurrency, outside of the extra technologies and so on, just analysis of how economics works, do you find that interesting?
In general, I don’t know if you’ve heard of Eric Watson has been talking about this with Gage Theory, so different kinds of approaches from the physics world, from the mathematical world to extend past this scalar view of economics. So Gage Theory is one way that comes from physics. Do you find that a way of exploring economics, interesting? So outside of cryptocurrency, outside of the extra technologies and so on, just analysis of how economics works, do you find that interesting?
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I think that if we’re going to want to really make any scientific progress in economics, we have to apply much more computationally intensive and richer forms of mathematics.
Yeah, I think that if we’re going to want to really make any scientific progress in economics, we have to apply much more computationally intensive and richer forms of mathematics.
Lex Fridman
So simulation perhaps, or…
So simulation perhaps, or…
Michael Saylor
Yeah. When I was at MIT I studied system dynamics. They taught it at the Sloan school. It was developed by Jay Forrester who was an extraordinary computer scientist. And when we created models of economic behavior, they were all multidimensional nonlinear models. So if you want to describe how anything works in the real world, you have to start with the concept of feedback. If I double the price of something, demand will fall and attempts to create supply will increase and there will be a delay before the capacity increases. There’ll be an instant demand change, and there’ll be rippling effects throughout every other segment of the economy downstream and upstream of such thing.
Yeah. When I was at MIT I studied system dynamics. They taught it at the Sloan school. It was developed by Jay Forrester who was an extraordinary computer scientist. And when we created models of economic behavior, they were all multidimensional nonlinear models. So if you want to describe how anything works in the real world, you have to start with the concept of feedback. If I double the price of something, demand will fall and attempts to create supply will increase and there will be a delay before the capacity increases. There’ll be an instant demand change, and there’ll be rippling effects throughout every other segment of the economy downstream and upstream of such thing.
So it’s common sense, but most economics, most classical economics, it’s always taught with linear models, fairly simplistic linear models. And oftentimes, I’m really shocked today that the entire mainstream dialogue of economics has been captured by scalar arithmetic. For example, if you read any article in New York Times or the Wall Street Journal, right, they just refer to there’s an inflation number or the CPI, or the inflation rate is X. And if you look at all the historic studies of the impact of inflation, generally they’re all based upon the idea that inflation equals CPI, and then they try to extrapolate from that and you just get nowhere with it.
Lex Fridman
So at the very least, we should be considering inflation and other economics concept is a nonlinear, dynamical system. So nonlinearity, and also just embracing the full complexity of just how the variables interact, maybe through simulation, maybe have some interesting models around that.
So at the very least, we should be considering inflation and other economics concept is a nonlinear, dynamical system. So nonlinearity, and also just embracing the full complexity of just how the variables interact, maybe through simulation, maybe have some interesting models around that.
Michael Saylor
Wouldn’t it be refreshing if somebody for once published a table of the change in price of every product, every service, and every asset and every place, over time?
Wouldn’t it be refreshing if somebody for once published a table of the change in price of every product, every service, and every asset and every place, over time?
Inflation
Lex Fridman
You said table. Some of that also is the task of visualization, how to extract from this complex set of numbers, patterns that somehow indicate something fundamental about what’s happening. So summarization of data is still important. Perhaps summarization not down to a single scale of value, but looking at that whole sea of numbers, you have to find patterns like what is inflation in a particular sector? What does it maybe change over time, maybe different geographical regions, things of that nature. I think that’s, I don’t know even what that task is. That’s what you could look at machine learning, you can look at AI with that perspective, which is how do you represent what’s happening efficiently, as efficiently as possible? That’s never going to be a single number, but it might be a compressed model that captures something beautiful, something fundamental about what’s happening.
You said table. Some of that also is the task of visualization, how to extract from this complex set of numbers, patterns that somehow indicate something fundamental about what’s happening. So summarization of data is still important. Perhaps summarization not down to a single scale of value, but looking at that whole sea of numbers, you have to find patterns like what is inflation in a particular sector? What does it maybe change over time, maybe different geographical regions, things of that nature. I think that’s, I don’t know even what that task is. That’s what you could look at machine learning, you can look at AI with that perspective, which is how do you represent what’s happening efficiently, as efficiently as possible? That’s never going to be a single number, but it might be a compressed model that captures something beautiful, something fundamental about what’s happening.
Michael Saylor
It’s an opportunity for sure. If we take, for example, during the pandemic, the response of the political apparatus was to lower interest rates to zero, and to start buying assets, in essence printing money. And the defense was, there’s no inflation. But of course you had one part of the economy where it was locked down, so it was illegal to buy anything. It was either illegal or it was impractical, so it would be impossible for demand to manifest. So of course, there is no inflation. On the other hand, there was instantaneous immediate inflation in another part of the economy, for example, you lowered the interest rates to zero. At one point, we saw the swap rate on a 30-year note go to 72 basis points. Okay. That means that the value of a long-dated bond immediately inflates.
It’s an opportunity for sure. If we take, for example, during the pandemic, the response of the political apparatus was to lower interest rates to zero, and to start buying assets, in essence printing money. And the defense was, there’s no inflation. But of course you had one part of the economy where it was locked down, so it was illegal to buy anything. It was either illegal or it was impractical, so it would be impossible for demand to manifest. So of course, there is no inflation. On the other hand, there was instantaneous immediate inflation in another part of the economy, for example, you lowered the interest rates to zero. At one point, we saw the swap rate on a 30-year note go to 72 basis points. Okay. That means that the value of a long-dated bond immediately inflates.
So the bond market had hyperinflation within minutes of these financial decisions. The asset market had hyperinflation. We had what you call a K-shaped recovery, what we affectionately call a K-shaped recovery. Main street shut down, Wall Street recovered all within six weeks. The inflation was in the assets, in the stocks, in the bonds. If you look today, you see that typical house, according to the Case-Shiller index today is up 19.2% year over year. So if you’re a first time home buyer, the inflation rate is 19%. The formal CPI announced a 7.9%. You can pretty much create any inflation rate you want by constructing a market basket, a weighted basket of products or services or assets that yield you the answer. I think that the fundamental failing of economists is, first of all, they don’t really have a term for asset inflation.
Lex Fridman
What’s an asset? What’s asset hyperinflation? You mentioned bottom market swap rate and asset is where the majority of the hyperinflation happen. What’s inflation? What’s hyperinflation? What’s an asset? What’s an asset market? I’m going to ask so many dumb questions.
What’s an asset? What’s asset hyperinflation? You mentioned bottom market swap rate and asset is where the majority of the hyperinflation happen. What’s inflation? What’s hyperinflation? What’s an asset? What’s an asset market? I’m going to ask so many dumb questions.
Michael Saylor
In the conventional economic world, you would treat inflation as the rate of increase in price of a market, basket of consumer products, defined by a government agency.
In the conventional economic world, you would treat inflation as the rate of increase in price of a market, basket of consumer products, defined by a government agency.
Lex Fridman
So they have traditional things that a regular consumer would be buying. The government selects like toilet paper, food toaster, refrigerated electronics, all that kind of stuff. And it’s like a representative basket of goods that lead to a content existence on this earth for a regular consumer.
So they have traditional things that a regular consumer would be buying. The government selects like toilet paper, food toaster, refrigerated electronics, all that kind of stuff. And it’s like a representative basket of goods that lead to a content existence on this earth for a regular consumer.
Michael Saylor
They define a synthetic metric. I mean, I’m going to say you should have a thousand square foot apartment and you should have a used car, and you should eat three hamburgers a week. Now, 10 years go by and the apartment costs more. I could adjust the market basket via, they call them hedonic adjustments. I could decide that it used to be a 1970 needed a thousand square feet, but in the year 2020, you only need 700 square feet because we’ve miniaturized televisions and we’ve got more efficient electric appliances. And because things have collapsed into the iPhone, you just don’t need as much space. So now it may be that the apartment costs 50% more, but after the hedonic adjustment, there is no inflation because I just downgraded the expectation of what a normal person should have.
They define a synthetic metric. I mean, I’m going to say you should have a thousand square foot apartment and you should have a used car, and you should eat three hamburgers a week. Now, 10 years go by and the apartment costs more. I could adjust the market basket via, they call them hedonic adjustments. I could decide that it used to be a 1970 needed a thousand square feet, but in the year 2020, you only need 700 square feet because we’ve miniaturized televisions and we’ve got more efficient electric appliances. And because things have collapsed into the iPhone, you just don’t need as much space. So now it may be that the apartment costs 50% more, but after the hedonic adjustment, there is no inflation because I just downgraded the expectation of what a normal person should have.
Lex Fridman
So the synthetic nature of the metric allows for manipulation by people in power.
So the synthetic nature of the metric allows for manipulation by people in power.
Michael Saylor
Pretty much. I guess, my criticism of economists is rather than embracing inflation based upon its fundamental idea, which is the rate at which the price of things go up. They’ve been captured by mainstream conventional thinking to immediately equate inflation to the government issued CPI or government issued PCE or government issued PPI measure, which was never the rate at which things go up. It’s simply the rate at which a synthetic basket of products and services the government wishes to track, go up. Now, the problem with that is two big things. One thing is the government gets to create the market basket, and so they keep changing what’s in the basket over time.
Pretty much. I guess, my criticism of economists is rather than embracing inflation based upon its fundamental idea, which is the rate at which the price of things go up. They’ve been captured by mainstream conventional thinking to immediately equate inflation to the government issued CPI or government issued PCE or government issued PPI measure, which was never the rate at which things go up. It’s simply the rate at which a synthetic basket of products and services the government wishes to track, go up. Now, the problem with that is two big things. One thing is the government gets to create the market basket, and so they keep changing what’s in the basket over time.
So I mean, if I said three years ago, you should go see 10 concerts a year, and the concert tickets now cost $200 each. Now it’s $2,000 a year to go see concerts. Now I’m in charge of calculating inflation. So I redefine your entertainment quota for the year to be eight Netflix streaming concerts, and now they don’t cost $2,000. They cost nothing, and there is no inflation, but you don’t get your concerts right? So the problem starts with continually changing the definition of the market basket, but in my opinion, that’s not the biggest problem. The more egregious problem is the fundamental idea that assets aren’t products or services. Assets can’t be inflated.
Lex Fridman
What’s an asset?
What’s an asset?
Michael Saylor
A house, a share of Apple stock, a bond, a Bitcoin is an asset or a Picasso painting.
A house, a share of Apple stock, a bond, a Bitcoin is an asset or a Picasso painting.
Lex Fridman
Not a consumable good, not an apple that you can eat.
Not a consumable good, not an apple that you can eat.
Michael Saylor
Right. If I throw away an asset, then I’m not on the hook to track the inflation rate for it. So what happens if I change the policy such that, let’s take the class example. A million dollar bond at a 5% interest rate gives you $50,000 a year in risk-free income. You might retire on $50,000 a year in a low cost jurisdiction. So the cost of social security or early retirement is $1 million when the interest rate is 5%. During the crisis of March of 2020, the interest rate went on a 10-year bond went to 50 basis points. So now the cost of that bond is $10 million. The cost of social security went from a million dollars to $10 million. So if you wanted to work your entire life, save money and then retire risk-free and live happily ever after on a $50,000 salary, living on a beach in Mexico, wherever you wanted to go, you had hyperinflation, the cost of your aspiration increased by a factor of 10 over the course of some amount of time.
Right. If I throw away an asset, then I’m not on the hook to track the inflation rate for it. So what happens if I change the policy such that, let’s take the class example. A million dollar bond at a 5% interest rate gives you $50,000 a year in risk-free income. You might retire on $50,000 a year in a low cost jurisdiction. So the cost of social security or early retirement is $1 million when the interest rate is 5%. During the crisis of March of 2020, the interest rate went on a 10-year bond went to 50 basis points. So now the cost of that bond is $10 million. The cost of social security went from a million dollars to $10 million. So if you wanted to work your entire life, save money and then retire risk-free and live happily ever after on a $50,000 salary, living on a beach in Mexico, wherever you wanted to go, you had hyperinflation, the cost of your aspiration increased by a factor of 10 over the course of some amount of time.
In fact, in that case, that was over the course of about 12 years. As the inflation rate ground down, the asset traded up. But the conventional view is, “Oh, that’s not a problem because it’s good that the bond is highly priced because we own the bond.” Or what’s the problem with the inflation rate in housing being 19%? It’s an awful problem for a 22-year-old that’s starting their first job, that’s saving money to buy a house. But it would be characterized as a benefit to society by a conventional economist who would say, “Well, housing asset values are higher because of interest rate fluctuation, and now the economy’s got more wealth.” And so that’s viewed as a benefit.
Lex Fridman
So what’s being missed here? The suffering of the average person or the struggle, the suffering, the pain of the average person, like metrics that captured that within the economic system. When you’re talking about-
So what’s being missed here? The suffering of the average person or the struggle, the suffering, the pain of the average person, like metrics that captured that within the economic system. When you’re talking about-
Michael Saylor
One way to say it is, a conventional view of inflation as CPI understates the human misery that’s inflicted upon the working class and on mainstream companies, by the political class. And so it’s a massive shift of wealth from the working class to the property class. It’s a massive shift to power from the free market to the centrally governed or the controlled market. It’s a massive shift to power from the people to the government. And maybe one more illustrative point here, Lex is, what do you think the inflation rate’s been for the past a 100 years?
One way to say it is, a conventional view of inflation as CPI understates the human misery that’s inflicted upon the working class and on mainstream companies, by the political class. And so it’s a massive shift of wealth from the working class to the property class. It’s a massive shift to power from the free market to the centrally governed or the controlled market. It’s a massive shift to power from the people to the government. And maybe one more illustrative point here, Lex is, what do you think the inflation rate’s been for the past a 100 years?
Lex Fridman
Oh, we talking about the scalar again?
Oh, we talking about the scalar again?
Michael Saylor
If you took a survey of everybody on the street and you asked them what do they think inflation was, what is it? You remember when Jerome Powell said, our target’s 2%, but we’re not there. If you go around the corner, I have posted the deed to this house sold in 1930, okay. And the number on that deed is $100,000, 1930. And if you go on Zillow and you get the Z estimate-
If you took a survey of everybody on the street and you asked them what do they think inflation was, what is it? You remember when Jerome Powell said, our target’s 2%, but we’re not there. If you go around the corner, I have posted the deed to this house sold in 1930, okay. And the number on that deed is $100,000, 1930. And if you go on Zillow and you get the Z estimate-
Lex Fridman
Is it higher than that? No?
Is it higher than that? No?
Michael Saylor
$30,500,000. So that’s 92 years, 1930 or 2022, and in 92 years, we’ve had 305X increase in price of the house. Now if you actually calculate, you come to a conclusion that the inflation rate was approximately 6.5% a year every year for 92 years. And there’s nobody in government, no conventional economists who would ever admit to an inflation rate of 7% a year in the US dollar over the last century. Now, if you dig deeper, I mean, one guy that’s done a great job working on this is Saifedean Ammous, who wrote the book, The Bitcoin Standard. And he notes that on average it looks like the inflation rate and the money supply is about 7% a year all the way up to the year 2020.
$30,500,000. So that’s 92 years, 1930 or 2022, and in 92 years, we’ve had 305X increase in price of the house. Now if you actually calculate, you come to a conclusion that the inflation rate was approximately 6.5% a year every year for 92 years. And there’s nobody in government, no conventional economists who would ever admit to an inflation rate of 7% a year in the US dollar over the last century. Now, if you dig deeper, I mean, one guy that’s done a great job working on this is Saifedean Ammous, who wrote the book, The Bitcoin Standard. And he notes that on average it looks like the inflation rate and the money supply is about 7% a year all the way up to the year 2020.
If you look at the S&P index, which is a market basket of scarce, desirable stocks, it returned about 10%. If you talk to 10% a year for a 100 years, the money supply is expanding at 7% a 100 years. If you actually talk to economists or you look at the economy and you ask the question, “How fast does the economy grow in its entirety year over year?” Generally about two to 3%, the sum total impact of all this technology and human ingenuity might get you a two and a half, 3% improvement a year.
Lex Fridman
As measured by GDP. Are you okay with that question?
As measured by GDP. Are you okay with that question?
Michael Saylor
I’m not sure I’d go that far yet, but I would just say that if you had the human race doing stuff, and if you ask the question, “How much more efficiently will we do the stuff next year than this year?” Or, “What’s the value of all of our innovations and inventions and investments in the past 12 months?” You’d be hard-pressed to say, we get 2% better. Typical investor thinks they’re 10% better every year. So if you look at what’s going on really, when you’re holding a million dollars of stocks and you’re getting a 10% gain a year, you’re really get a 7% expansion of the money supply. You’re getting a two or 3% gain under best circumstances. And another way to say that is, if the money supply stopped expanding at 7% a year, the S&P yield might be 3% and not 10%. It probably should be.
I’m not sure I’d go that far yet, but I would just say that if you had the human race doing stuff, and if you ask the question, “How much more efficiently will we do the stuff next year than this year?” Or, “What’s the value of all of our innovations and inventions and investments in the past 12 months?” You’d be hard-pressed to say, we get 2% better. Typical investor thinks they’re 10% better every year. So if you look at what’s going on really, when you’re holding a million dollars of stocks and you’re getting a 10% gain a year, you’re really get a 7% expansion of the money supply. You’re getting a two or 3% gain under best circumstances. And another way to say that is, if the money supply stopped expanding at 7% a year, the S&P yield might be 3% and not 10%. It probably should be.
Now, that gets you to start to ask a bunch of other fundamental questions. Like, if I borrow a billion dollars and pay 3% interest and the money supply expands at seven to 10% a year, and I ended up making a 10% return on a billion dollars investment, paying 3% interest, is that fair? And who suffered so that I could do that? Because in an environment where you’re just inflating the money supply and you’re holding the assets constant, it stands the reason that the price of all the assets is going to appreciate somewhat proportional to the money supply, and the difference in asset appreciation is going to be a function of the scarce, desirable quality of the assets, and to what extent can I make more of them, and to what extent are they truly limited in supply?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. So we will get to a lot of the words you said there, the scarcity and so connected to how limited they are and the value of those assets. But you also said, so the expansion of the money supply, which is put in other ways, is printing money. And so is that always bad? The expansion of the money supply, just to put some terms on the table so we understand them. You nonchalantly say it’s always on average expanding every year. The money supply is expanding every year by 7%. That’s a bad thing. That’s a universally bad thing.
Yeah. So we will get to a lot of the words you said there, the scarcity and so connected to how limited they are and the value of those assets. But you also said, so the expansion of the money supply, which is put in other ways, is printing money. And so is that always bad? The expansion of the money supply, just to put some terms on the table so we understand them. You nonchalantly say it’s always on average expanding every year. The money supply is expanding every year by 7%. That’s a bad thing. That’s a universally bad thing.
Michael Saylor
It’s awful. I guess to be precise, it’s the currency. I would say money is monetary energy or economic energy, and the economic energy has to find its way into a medium. So if you want to move it rapidly as a medium of exchange, it has to find its way into currency, but the money can also flow into property like a house or gold. If the money flows into property, it’ll probably hold its value much better. If the money flows into currency… If you had put a $100,000 in this house, you would have 305X return over 92 years. But if you had put the money a $100,000 into safe deposit box and buried it in the basement, you would’ve lost 99.7% of your wealth over the same time period. So the expansion of the currency creates a massive inefficiency in the society, what I’ll call an adiabatic lapse. What we’re doing is we’re bleeding the civilization to death.
It’s awful. I guess to be precise, it’s the currency. I would say money is monetary energy or economic energy, and the economic energy has to find its way into a medium. So if you want to move it rapidly as a medium of exchange, it has to find its way into currency, but the money can also flow into property like a house or gold. If the money flows into property, it’ll probably hold its value much better. If the money flows into currency… If you had put a $100,000 in this house, you would have 305X return over 92 years. But if you had put the money a $100,000 into safe deposit box and buried it in the basement, you would’ve lost 99.7% of your wealth over the same time period. So the expansion of the currency creates a massive inefficiency in the society, what I’ll call an adiabatic lapse. What we’re doing is we’re bleeding the civilization to death.
Lex Fridman
What’s the adiabatic… What’s that word?
What’s the adiabatic… What’s that word?
Michael Saylor
Adiabatic lapse.
Adiabatic lapse.
Lex Fridman
Adiabatic.
Adiabatic.
Michael Saylor
In aerospace engineering, you want to solve any problem. They start with the phrase assume an adiabatic system. And what that means is a closed system.
In aerospace engineering, you want to solve any problem. They start with the phrase assume an adiabatic system. And what that means is a closed system.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Michael Saylor
So-
So-
Lex Fridman
I’ve got it.
I’ve got it.
Michael Saylor
… I’ve got a container. And in that container, no air leaves and no air enters. No energy exits or enters. So it’s a closed system.
… I’ve got a container. And in that container, no air leaves and no air enters. No energy exits or enters. So it’s a closed system.
Lex Fridman
So you got the closed system lapse.
So you got the closed system lapse.
Michael Saylor
Okay, I’m going to use a-
Okay, I’m going to use a-
Lex Fridman
There’s a leak in the ship.
There’s a leak in the ship.
Michael Saylor
… physical metaphor for you, because you’re into jujitsu. You got 10 pints of blood in your body, and so before your next workout, I’m going to take one pint from you. Now you’re going to go exercise, but you’ve lost 10% of your blood. You’re not going to perform as well. It takes about one month for your body to replace the red blood platelets. So what if I tell you every month you got to show up and I’m going to bleed you? Okay, so if I’m draining the energy, I’m draining the blood from your body. You can’t perform. Adiabatic lapse is when you go up an altitude. Every thousand feet, you lose three degrees.
… physical metaphor for you, because you’re into jujitsu. You got 10 pints of blood in your body, and so before your next workout, I’m going to take one pint from you. Now you’re going to go exercise, but you’ve lost 10% of your blood. You’re not going to perform as well. It takes about one month for your body to replace the red blood platelets. So what if I tell you every month you got to show up and I’m going to bleed you? Okay, so if I’m draining the energy, I’m draining the blood from your body. You can’t perform. Adiabatic lapse is when you go up an altitude. Every thousand feet, you lose three degrees.
You go at 50,000 feet, you’re 150 degrees colder than sea level. That’s why you look at your instruments and instead of 80 degrees, you’re minus 70 degrees. Why is the temperature falling? Temperature’s falling because it’s not a closed system, it’s an open system. As the air expands, the density falls, the energy per cubic, whatever falls, and therefore the temperature falls. The heat’s falling out of the solution. So when you’re inflating, let’s say you’re inflating the money, the currency supply by 6%, you’re sucking 6% of the energy out of the fluid that the economy is using to function.
Lex Fridman
So the currency, this ocean of currency, that’s a nice way for the economy to function. It’s being inefficient when you expand the money supply, but it’s the liquid. I’m trying to find the right adjective here. It’s how you do transactions at a scale of billions.
So the currency, this ocean of currency, that’s a nice way for the economy to function. It’s being inefficient when you expand the money supply, but it’s the liquid. I’m trying to find the right adjective here. It’s how you do transactions at a scale of billions.
Michael Saylor
Currency is the asset we use to move monetary energy around, and you could use the dollar or you could use the peso or you could use the boulevard.
Currency is the asset we use to move monetary energy around, and you could use the dollar or you could use the peso or you could use the boulevard.
Lex Fridman
Selling houses and buying houses is much more inefficient, or you can’t transact between billions of people with houses.
Selling houses and buying houses is much more inefficient, or you can’t transact between billions of people with houses.
Michael Saylor
Yeah. Properties don’t make such good mediums of exchange. They make better stores of value and they have utility value if it’s a ship or a house or a plane or a bushel of corn.
Yeah. Properties don’t make such good mediums of exchange. They make better stores of value and they have utility value if it’s a ship or a house or a plane or a bushel of corn.
Government
Lex Fridman
Can we zoom out, keep zooming out into, we reach the origin of human civilization, but on the way ask, you gave economists a D minus. I’m not even going to ask you what you give to governments. Do you think their failure, economists and government failure is malevolence or incompetence?
Can we zoom out, keep zooming out into, we reach the origin of human civilization, but on the way ask, you gave economists a D minus. I’m not even going to ask you what you give to governments. Do you think their failure, economists and government failure is malevolence or incompetence?
Michael Saylor
I think policy makers are well-intentioned, but generally all government policy is inflationary and it’s inflammatory and inflationary. So what I-
I think policy makers are well-intentioned, but generally all government policy is inflationary and it’s inflammatory and inflationary. So what I-
Michael Saylor
… and all government, it’s inflammatory and inflationary. So what I mean by that is when you have a policy pursuing supply chain independence, if you have an energy policy, if you have a labor policy, if you have a trade policy, if you have any kind of foreign policy, a domestic policy, a manufacturing policy, every one of these, a medical policy, every one of these policies interferes with the free market and generally prevents some rational actor from doing it in a cheaper, more efficient way. So when you layer them on top of each other, they all have to be paid for. If you want to shut down the entire economy for a year, you have to pay for it, right? If you want to fight a war, you have to pay for it, right? If you don’t want to use oil or natural gas, you have to pay for it. If you don’t want to manufacture semiconductors in China and you want to manufacture them in the U.S., you got to pay for it.
… and all government, it’s inflammatory and inflationary. So what I mean by that is when you have a policy pursuing supply chain independence, if you have an energy policy, if you have a labor policy, if you have a trade policy, if you have any kind of foreign policy, a domestic policy, a manufacturing policy, every one of these, a medical policy, every one of these policies interferes with the free market and generally prevents some rational actor from doing it in a cheaper, more efficient way. So when you layer them on top of each other, they all have to be paid for. If you want to shut down the entire economy for a year, you have to pay for it, right? If you want to fight a war, you have to pay for it, right? If you don’t want to use oil or natural gas, you have to pay for it. If you don’t want to manufacture semiconductors in China and you want to manufacture them in the U.S., you got to pay for it.
If I rebuild the entire supply chain in Pennsylvania and I hire a bunch of employees and then I unionize the employees, then not only am I… I idle the factory in the Far East, it goes to 50% capacity. So whatever it sells, it has to raise the price on, and then I drive up the cost of labor for every other manufacturer in the U.S. because I’m competing against them, right? I’m changing that condition. So everything gets less efficient, everything gets more expensive, and of course, the government couldn’t really pay for its policies and its wars with taxes. We didn’t pay for World War I with tax. We didn’t pay for World War II with tax. We didn’t pay for Vietnam with tax. In fact, when you trace this, what you realize is the government never pays for all of its policies with taxes. It pays for-
Lex Fridman
Because it’s super painful to ask to raise the taxes to truly transparently pay for the things you’re doing with taxes, with taxpayer money because they feel the pain.
Because it’s super painful to ask to raise the taxes to truly transparently pay for the things you’re doing with taxes, with taxpayer money because they feel the pain.
Michael Saylor
That’s one interpretation or it’s just too transparent. If people understood the true cost-
That’s one interpretation or it’s just too transparent. If people understood the true cost-
Lex Fridman
Of war, they wouldn’t want to go to war.
Of war, they wouldn’t want to go to war.
Michael Saylor
If you were told that you would lose 95% of your assets and 90% of everything you will be ever will be taken from you, you might re-prioritize your thought about a given policy and you might not vote for that politician.
If you were told that you would lose 95% of your assets and 90% of everything you will be ever will be taken from you, you might re-prioritize your thought about a given policy and you might not vote for that politician.
Lex Fridman
But you’re still saying incompetence not malevolence. So fundamentally, government creates a bureaucracy of incompetence is how you look at it.
But you’re still saying incompetence not malevolence. So fundamentally, government creates a bureaucracy of incompetence is how you look at it.
Michael Saylor
I think a lack of humility, if people had more humility than they would realize-
I think a lack of humility, if people had more humility than they would realize-
Lex Fridman
Humility about how little they know, how little they understand about the function of complex systems.
Humility about how little they know, how little they understand about the function of complex systems.
Michael Saylor
It’s a phrase from Clint Eastwood’s movie Unforgiven where he says, “A man’s got to know his limitations.” I think that a lot of people overestimate what they can accomplish and experience in life causes you to reevaluate that. So I’ve done a lot of things in my life and generally, my mistakes were always my good ideas that I enthusiastically pursued to the detriment of my great ideas that required 150% of my attention to prosper. So I think people pursue too many good ideas, and they all sound good, but there’s just a limit to what you can accomplish. And everybody underestimates the challenges of implementing an idea, and they always overestimate the benefits of the pursuit of that.
It’s a phrase from Clint Eastwood’s movie Unforgiven where he says, “A man’s got to know his limitations.” I think that a lot of people overestimate what they can accomplish and experience in life causes you to reevaluate that. So I’ve done a lot of things in my life and generally, my mistakes were always my good ideas that I enthusiastically pursued to the detriment of my great ideas that required 150% of my attention to prosper. So I think people pursue too many good ideas, and they all sound good, but there’s just a limit to what you can accomplish. And everybody underestimates the challenges of implementing an idea, and they always overestimate the benefits of the pursuit of that.
And so I think it’s an overconfidence that causes an over-exuberance in pursuit of policies. As the ambition of the government expands, so must the currency supply. I could say the money supply, but let’s say the currency supply. You can triple the number of pesos in the economy, but it doesn’t triple the amount of manufacturing capacity in the set economy, and it doesn’t triple the amount of assets in the economy. It just triples the pesos. So as you increase the currency supply, then the price of all those scarce desirable things will tend to go up rapidly. And the confidence of all of the institutions, the corporations and the individual actors and trading partners will collapse.
Lex Fridman
If we take a tangent on a tangent, and we will return soon to the big human civilization question. So if government naturally wants to buy stuff it can’t afford, what’s the best form of government? Anarchism. Libertarianism. So there’s not even armies. There’s no borders that’s anarchism-
If we take a tangent on a tangent, and we will return soon to the big human civilization question. So if government naturally wants to buy stuff it can’t afford, what’s the best form of government? Anarchism. Libertarianism. So there’s not even armies. There’s no borders that’s anarchism-
Michael Saylor
The least.
The least.
Lex Fridman
The smallest possible, the less the-
The smallest possible, the less the-
Michael Saylor
The best government would be the least, and the debate will be over that.
The best government would be the least, and the debate will be over that.
Lex Fridman
When you think about this stuff, do you think about, “Okay, government is the way it is, I, as a person that can generate great ideas, how do I operate in this world?” Or do you also think about the big picture? If we start a new civilization somewhere on Mars, do you think about what’s the ultimate form of government? What’s at least a promising thing to try?
When you think about this stuff, do you think about, “Okay, government is the way it is, I, as a person that can generate great ideas, how do I operate in this world?” Or do you also think about the big picture? If we start a new civilization somewhere on Mars, do you think about what’s the ultimate form of government? What’s at least a promising thing to try?
Michael Saylor
I have laser eyes on my profile on-
I have laser eyes on my profile on-
Lex Fridman
Yes-
Yes-
Michael Saylor
… Twitter, Lex.
… Twitter, Lex.
Lex Fridman
… we’ve noticed. What does that mean?
… we’ve noticed. What does that mean?
Michael Saylor
And the significance of laser eyes is to focus on the thing that can make a difference.
And the significance of laser eyes is to focus on the thing that can make a difference.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Michael Saylor
And if I look at the civilization, I would say half the problems in the civilization are due to the fact that our understanding of economics and money is defective. Half, 50%, I don’t know, it’s worth $500 trillion worth of problems? Money represents all the economic energy and the civilization and it equates to all the products, all the services and all the assets that we have and whatever we’re going to have. So that’s half. The other half of the problems in the civilization are medical and military and political and philosophical and natural. And I think that there are a lot of different solutions to all those problems, and they are all honorable professions and they all merit a lifetime of consideration for the specialists in all those areas. I think that what I could offer its constructive is inflation is completely misunderstood. It’s a much bigger problem than we understand it to be.
And if I look at the civilization, I would say half the problems in the civilization are due to the fact that our understanding of economics and money is defective. Half, 50%, I don’t know, it’s worth $500 trillion worth of problems? Money represents all the economic energy and the civilization and it equates to all the products, all the services and all the assets that we have and whatever we’re going to have. So that’s half. The other half of the problems in the civilization are medical and military and political and philosophical and natural. And I think that there are a lot of different solutions to all those problems, and they are all honorable professions and they all merit a lifetime of consideration for the specialists in all those areas. I think that what I could offer its constructive is inflation is completely misunderstood. It’s a much bigger problem than we understand it to be.
We need to introduce engineering and science techniques into economics if we want to further the human condition. All government policy is inflationary. And another pernicious myth is inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena. A famous quote by Milton Friedman, I believe, it’s like, it’s a monetary phenomena that is inflation comes from expanding the currency supply. It’s a nice phrase and it’s oftentimes quoted by people that are anti-inflation. But again, it just signifies a lack of appreciation of what the issue is. If I had a currency which was completely non-inflationary, if I never printed another dollar and if I eliminated fractional reserve banking from the face of the earth, we’d still have inflation, and we’d have inflation as long as we have government that is capable of pursuing any kind of policies that are in themself inflationary, and generally, they all are.
Lex Fridman
So in general, inflationary is the big characteristic of human nature that’s government collection of groups that have power over others and allocate other people’s resources will try to intentionally or not hide the costs of those allocations in some tricky ways. Whatever the options ever are available.
So in general, inflationary is the big characteristic of human nature that’s government collection of groups that have power over others and allocate other people’s resources will try to intentionally or not hide the costs of those allocations in some tricky ways. Whatever the options ever are available.
Michael Saylor
Hiding the cost is like the tertiary thing. The primary goal is the government will attempt to do good, right? And-
Hiding the cost is like the tertiary thing. The primary goal is the government will attempt to do good, right? And-
Lex Fridman
That’s the primary problem?
That’s the primary problem?
Michael Saylor
They will attempt to do good and they will do good imperfectly, and they will create oftentimes as much damage… more damage than the good they do. Most government policy will be iatrogenic. It will create more harm than good in the pursuit of it, but it is what it is. The secondary issue is they will unintentionally pay for it by expanding the currency supply without realizing that they’re actually paying for it in a suboptimal fashion. They’ll collapse their own currencies while they attempt to do good. The tertiary issue is they will mismeasure how badly they’re collapsing the currency. So for example, if you go to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and look at the numbers printed by the Fed, they’ll say, “Oh, it looks like the dollar’s lost 95% of its purchasing power over 100 years.” They sort of fess up that there’s a problem, but they make it 95% loss over 100 years. What they don’t do is realize it’s a 99.7% loss over 80 years.
They will attempt to do good and they will do good imperfectly, and they will create oftentimes as much damage… more damage than the good they do. Most government policy will be iatrogenic. It will create more harm than good in the pursuit of it, but it is what it is. The secondary issue is they will unintentionally pay for it by expanding the currency supply without realizing that they’re actually paying for it in a suboptimal fashion. They’ll collapse their own currencies while they attempt to do good. The tertiary issue is they will mismeasure how badly they’re collapsing the currency. So for example, if you go to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and look at the numbers printed by the Fed, they’ll say, “Oh, it looks like the dollar’s lost 95% of its purchasing power over 100 years.” They sort of fess up that there’s a problem, but they make it 95% loss over 100 years. What they don’t do is realize it’s a 99.7% loss over 80 years.
So they will mismeasure just the horrific extent of the monetary policy in pursuit of the foreign policy and the domestic policy, which they overestimate their budget and their means to accomplish their ends, and they underestimate the cost. And they’re oblivious to the horrific damage that they do to the civilization because the mental models that they use that are conventionally taught are wrong. The mental model that it’s okay, we can print all this money because the velocity of the money is low because money velocity is a scalar and inflation is the scalar, and we don’t see 2% inflation yet, and the money velocity is low, and so it’s okay if we print trillions of dollars. Well, the money velocity was immediate. The velocity of money through the crypto economy is 10,000 times faster than the velocity of money through the consumer economy. I think Nic pointed out when you spoke to him, he said it takes two months for a credit card transaction to settle, right? So you spend a million dollars in the consumer economy, you can move it six times a year.
You put the million dollars into gold, gold will sit in a vault for a decade. Okay? So the velocity of money through gold is 0.1. You put the money in the stock market and you can trade it once a week. The settlement is T+2. Maybe you get to 2:1 leverage, you might get to a money velocity of 100 a year. In the stock market, you put your money into the crypto economy and these people are settling every four hours. And if you’re offshore, they’re trading with 20x leverage. So if you settle every day and you trade the 20x leverage, you just went to 7,000. So the velocity of the money varies. I think the politicians, they don’t really understand inflation and they don’t understand economics, but you can’t blame them because the economists don’t understand economics. Because if they did, they would be creating multivariate computer simulations where they actually put in the price of every piece of housing and every city in the world the full array of foods and the full array of products and the full array of assets.
And then on a monthly basis they would publish all those results. And that’s a high bandwidth requirement, and I think that people don’t really want to embrace it. There’s that phrase, you can’t tell people what to think, but you can tell them what to think about. The most pernicious thing is I get you to misunderstand the phenomena so that even when it’s happening to you, you don’t appreciate that it’s a bad thing and you think it’s a good thing. So if housing prices are going up 20% year over year, and I say this is great for the American public ’cause most of them are homeowners, then I have misrepresented a phenomena. Inflation is 20%, not 7%, and then I have misrepresented it as being a positive rather than a negative, and people will stare at it. And you could even show them their house on fire and they would perceive it as being great because it’s warming them up and they’re going to save on their heat cost.
Lex Fridman
It does seem that the cruder of the model, whether it’s economics, whether it’s psychology, the easier it is to weave whatever the heck narrative you want. And not in a malicious way, but just like it’s some kind of emergent phenomena, this narrative thing that we tell ourselves. So you can tell any kind of story about inflation. Inflation is good. Inflation is bad. Like the cruder the model, the easier it is to tell a narrative about it. So if you take an engineering approach, I feel like it becomes more and more difficult to run away from a true deep understanding of the dynamics of the system.
It does seem that the cruder of the model, whether it’s economics, whether it’s psychology, the easier it is to weave whatever the heck narrative you want. And not in a malicious way, but just like it’s some kind of emergent phenomena, this narrative thing that we tell ourselves. So you can tell any kind of story about inflation. Inflation is good. Inflation is bad. Like the cruder the model, the easier it is to tell a narrative about it. So if you take an engineering approach, I feel like it becomes more and more difficult to run away from a true deep understanding of the dynamics of the system.
Michael Saylor
Honestly, if you went to 100 people on the street and you ask them to define inflation, how many would say it’s a vector tracking the change in price of every product service asset in the world over time?
Honestly, if you went to 100 people on the street and you ask them to define inflation, how many would say it’s a vector tracking the change in price of every product service asset in the world over time?
Lex Fridman
No.
No.
Michael Saylor
Not many.
Not many.
Lex Fridman
Not many.
Not many.
Michael Saylor
If you went to them and you said, “Do you think 2% inflation a year is good or bad?” The majority would probably say, “Well, I heat it’s good.” The majority of economists would say 2% inflation a year is good, and of course, look at the ship next to us. What if I told you that the ship leaked 2% of its volume every something? The ship is rotting 2% a year. That means the useful life of the ship is 50 years. Now, ironically, that’s true. Like a wooden ship had a 50-year to 100- year life. 100 would be long, 50 years, not unlikely. So when we built ships out of wood, they had a useful life of about 50 years, and then they sunk and they rotted. There’s nothing good about it. You build a ship out of steel and it’s 0 as opposed to 2% degradation, and how much better is 0% versus 2%?
If you went to them and you said, “Do you think 2% inflation a year is good or bad?” The majority would probably say, “Well, I heat it’s good.” The majority of economists would say 2% inflation a year is good, and of course, look at the ship next to us. What if I told you that the ship leaked 2% of its volume every something? The ship is rotting 2% a year. That means the useful life of the ship is 50 years. Now, ironically, that’s true. Like a wooden ship had a 50-year to 100- year life. 100 would be long, 50 years, not unlikely. So when we built ships out of wood, they had a useful life of about 50 years, and then they sunk and they rotted. There’s nothing good about it. You build a ship out of steel and it’s 0 as opposed to 2% degradation, and how much better is 0% versus 2%?
Well, 2% means you have a useful life of it’s half life of 35 years. 2% is a half life of 35 years. That’s basically the half life of money in gold. If I store your life force in gold, under perfect circumstances, you have a useful life of 35 years. 0% is a useful life of forever. So 0% is immortal, 2% is 35 years average life expectancy. So the idea that you would think the life expectancy of the currency and the civilization should be 35 years instead of forever is a silly notion. But the tragic notion is it was 7 into 70 or 10 years.
The money has had a half life of 10 years except for the fact that in weak societies and Argentina or the like, the half-life of the money is three to four years; in Venezuela, one year. So the United States dollar and the United States economic system was the most successful economic system in the last 100 years in the world. We won every war. We were the world’s superpower. Our currency lost 99.7% of its value, and that means horrifically every other currency lost, right? In essence, the other ones were 99.9, except for most that were 100% because they all completely failed. And you’ve got a mainstream economic community that thinks that inflation is a number and 2% is desirable. It’s like, remember George Washington? You know how he died?
Lex Fridman
No.
No.
Michael Saylor
Well-meaning physicians bled him to death. Okay? The last thing in the world you would want to do to a sick person is bleed them in the modern world. I think we understand that oxygen is carried by the blood cells, and if… There’s that phrase, triage phrase, what’s the first thing you do in an injury? Stop the bleeding. Single first thing, right? You show up after any accident, I look at you, stop the bleeding because you’re going to be dead in a matter of minutes if you bleed out. So it strikes me as being ironic that orthodox conventional wisdom was bleed the patient to death. And this was the most important patient in the country, maybe in the history of the country, and we bled him to death trying to help him.
Well-meaning physicians bled him to death. Okay? The last thing in the world you would want to do to a sick person is bleed them in the modern world. I think we understand that oxygen is carried by the blood cells, and if… There’s that phrase, triage phrase, what’s the first thing you do in an injury? Stop the bleeding. Single first thing, right? You show up after any accident, I look at you, stop the bleeding because you’re going to be dead in a matter of minutes if you bleed out. So it strikes me as being ironic that orthodox conventional wisdom was bleed the patient to death. And this was the most important patient in the country, maybe in the history of the country, and we bled him to death trying to help him.
So when you’re actually inflating the money supply at 7% but you’re calling it 2% because you want to help the economy, you’re literally bleeding the free market to death. But the sad fact is George Washington went along with it ’cause he thought that they were going to do him good. And the majority of the society, most companies, most conventional thinkers, the working class, they go along with this because they think that someone has their best interest in mind. And the people that are bleeding them to death, they believe that prescription because their mental models are just so defective and they’re understanding of energy and engineering and the economics that are at play is crippled by these mental models.
Lex Fridman
But that’s both the bug in the future of human civilization that ideas take hold, that unite us. We believe in them, and we make a lot of cool stuff happen by, as an average, just the fact of the matter, a lot of people believe the same thing. They get together and they get some shit done because they believe that thing. And then some ideas can be really bad and really destructive. But on average, the ideas seem to be progressing in a direction of good. Let me just step back. What the hell are we doing here, us humans on this earth? How do you think of humans? How special are humans? How did human civilization originate on this earth, and what is this human project they’re all taking on? You mentioned fire and water, and apparently bleeding you to death is not a good idea. I always thought you can get the demons out in that way, but that was a recent invention. So what’s this thing we’re doing here?
But that’s both the bug in the future of human civilization that ideas take hold, that unite us. We believe in them, and we make a lot of cool stuff happen by, as an average, just the fact of the matter, a lot of people believe the same thing. They get together and they get some shit done because they believe that thing. And then some ideas can be really bad and really destructive. But on average, the ideas seem to be progressing in a direction of good. Let me just step back. What the hell are we doing here, us humans on this earth? How do you think of humans? How special are humans? How did human civilization originate on this earth, and what is this human project they’re all taking on? You mentioned fire and water, and apparently bleeding you to death is not a good idea. I always thought you can get the demons out in that way, but that was a recent invention. So what’s this thing we’re doing here?
War and power
Michael Saylor
I think what distinguishes human beings from all the other creatures on the earth is our ability to engineer. We’re engineers, right?
I think what distinguishes human beings from all the other creatures on the earth is our ability to engineer. We’re engineers, right?
Lex Fridman
To solve problems or just build incredible cool things?
To solve problems or just build incredible cool things?
Michael Saylor
Engineering, harnessing energy and technique to make the world a better place than you found it. From the point that we actually started to play with fire, that was a big leap forward. Harnessing the power of kinetic energy and missiles, another step forward, every city built on water. Why water? Well, water’s bringing energy, right? If you actually put a turbine on a river or you capture a change in elevation of water, you’ve literally harnessed gravitational energy, but water’s also bringing you food. It’s also giving you a cheap form of getting rid of your waste. It’s also giving you free transportation. You want to move one ton blocks around, you want to move them in water. So I think the human story is really the story of engineering a better world. And the rise in the human condition is determined by those groups of people, those civilizations that were best at harnessing energy, right?
Engineering, harnessing energy and technique to make the world a better place than you found it. From the point that we actually started to play with fire, that was a big leap forward. Harnessing the power of kinetic energy and missiles, another step forward, every city built on water. Why water? Well, water’s bringing energy, right? If you actually put a turbine on a river or you capture a change in elevation of water, you’ve literally harnessed gravitational energy, but water’s also bringing you food. It’s also giving you a cheap form of getting rid of your waste. It’s also giving you free transportation. You want to move one ton blocks around, you want to move them in water. So I think the human story is really the story of engineering a better world. And the rise in the human condition is determined by those groups of people, those civilizations that were best at harnessing energy, right?
If you look the Greek civilization, they built it around ports and seaports and water and created a trading network. The Romans were really good at harnessing all sorts of engineering. The aqueducts are a great example. If you go to any big city, you travel through cities in the Med, you find that the carrying capacity of the city or the island is 5,000 people without running water. And then if you can find a way to bring water to it it increases by a factor of 10. And so human flourishing is really only possible through that channeling of energy that eventually takes the form of air power. That ship, look at the intricacy of those sails. Just the model is intricate. Now, think about all of the experimentation that took place to figure out how many sails to put on that ship and how to rig them and how to repair them and how to operate them.
Lex Fridman
It’s thousands of lives spent thinking through all the tiny little details all to increase the effectiveness, the efficiency of this ship as it sails thru water. And we should also note there’s a bunch of cannons on the side. So obviously-
It’s thousands of lives spent thinking through all the tiny little details all to increase the effectiveness, the efficiency of this ship as it sails thru water. And we should also note there’s a bunch of cannons on the side. So obviously-
Michael Saylor
Another form of engineering, energy harnessing with explosives.
Another form of engineering, energy harnessing with explosives.
Lex Fridman
To achieve what end? That’s another discussion. Exactly.
To achieve what end? That’s another discussion. Exactly.
Michael Saylor
Suppose we’re trying to get off the planet, right?
Suppose we’re trying to get off the planet, right?
Lex Fridman
Well, there’s a selection mechanism going on, so natural selection it’s’… However evolution works, it seems that one of the interesting inventions on earth was the predator/prey dynamic, that you want to be the bigger fish, that violence seems to serve a useful purpose if you look at earth as a whole. We as humans now like to think of violence as really a bad thing. It seems to be one of the amazing things about humans is we’re ultimately tend towards cooperation. We like peace. If you just look at history, we want things to be nice and calm. But just wars break out every once in a while and lead to immense suffering and destruction and so on, and they have a resetting the palette effect. It’s one that’s full of just immeasurable human suffering, but it’s like a way to start over.
Well, there’s a selection mechanism going on, so natural selection it’s’… However evolution works, it seems that one of the interesting inventions on earth was the predator/prey dynamic, that you want to be the bigger fish, that violence seems to serve a useful purpose if you look at earth as a whole. We as humans now like to think of violence as really a bad thing. It seems to be one of the amazing things about humans is we’re ultimately tend towards cooperation. We like peace. If you just look at history, we want things to be nice and calm. But just wars break out every once in a while and lead to immense suffering and destruction and so on, and they have a resetting the palette effect. It’s one that’s full of just immeasurable human suffering, but it’s like a way to start over.
Michael Saylor
We’re clearly apex predator on the planet. And I Googled something the other day, “What’s the most common form of mammal life on the earth?”
We’re clearly apex predator on the planet. And I Googled something the other day, “What’s the most common form of mammal life on the earth?”
Lex Fridman
By number of organisms?
By number of organisms?
Michael Saylor
Count.
Count.
Lex Fridman
By count?
By count?
Michael Saylor
And the answer that came back was human beings.
And the answer that came back was human beings.
Lex Fridman
Really?
Really?
Michael Saylor
I was shocked. I couldn’t believe it, right? It says apparently if we’re just looking at mammals, the answer was human beings are the most common, which was very interesting to me. I almost didn’t believe it, but I was trying to figure out, 8 billion or so human beings-
I was shocked. I couldn’t believe it, right? It says apparently if we’re just looking at mammals, the answer was human beings are the most common, which was very interesting to me. I almost didn’t believe it, but I was trying to figure out, 8 billion or so human beings-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, It’s a lot.
Yeah, It’s a lot.
Michael Saylor
… there’s no other mammal that’s got more than 8 billion. If you walk through downtown Edinburgh and Scotland and you look up on this hill and this castle up on the hill and you talk to people and the story is, “Oh, yeah, well, that was a British castle. Before, it was a Scottish castle. Before, it was a pick castle. Before, it was a Roman castle. Before, it was some other Celtic castle. Before, it was…” Then they found 13 prehistoric castles buried one under the other, under the other. And you get the conclusion that 100,000 years ago, somebody showed up and grabbed the high point, the apex of the city, and they built a stronghold there and they flourished and their family flourished and their tribe flourished until someone came along and knocked them off the hill. And it’s been a nonstop never-ending fight by the aggressive, most powerful entity, family, organization, municipality, tribe, whatever-
… there’s no other mammal that’s got more than 8 billion. If you walk through downtown Edinburgh and Scotland and you look up on this hill and this castle up on the hill and you talk to people and the story is, “Oh, yeah, well, that was a British castle. Before, it was a Scottish castle. Before, it was a pick castle. Before, it was a Roman castle. Before, it was some other Celtic castle. Before, it was…” Then they found 13 prehistoric castles buried one under the other, under the other. And you get the conclusion that 100,000 years ago, somebody showed up and grabbed the high point, the apex of the city, and they built a stronghold there and they flourished and their family flourished and their tribe flourished until someone came along and knocked them off the hill. And it’s been a nonstop never-ending fight by the aggressive, most powerful entity, family, organization, municipality, tribe, whatever-
Lex Fridman
All for the hill.
All for the hill.
Michael Saylor
For that one hill, going back since time immemorial. And you scratch your head and you think, it seems like it’s just this never-ending-
For that one hill, going back since time immemorial. And you scratch your head and you think, it seems like it’s just this never-ending-
Lex Fridman
But doesn’t that lead-
But doesn’t that lead-
Michael Saylor
… wheel.
… wheel.
Lex Fridman
… if you just… all kinds of metrics that seems to improve the quality of our cannons and ships as a result. It seems that war, just like your laser eyes, focuses the mind on the engineering tasks.
… if you just… all kinds of metrics that seems to improve the quality of our cannons and ships as a result. It seems that war, just like your laser eyes, focuses the mind on the engineering tasks.
Michael Saylor
It is that, and it does remind you that the winner is always the most powerful. And we throw that phrase out, but no one thinks about what that phrase means. Like who’s the most powerful or the most powerful side one, but they don’t think about it. And they think about power, energy delivered in a period of time. And then you think a guy with a spear is more powerful than someone with their fist and someone with a bow and arrow is more powerful than the person with the spear. And then you realize that somebody with bronze is more powerful than without, and steel is more powerful than bronze.
It is that, and it does remind you that the winner is always the most powerful. And we throw that phrase out, but no one thinks about what that phrase means. Like who’s the most powerful or the most powerful side one, but they don’t think about it. And they think about power, energy delivered in a period of time. And then you think a guy with a spear is more powerful than someone with their fist and someone with a bow and arrow is more powerful than the person with the spear. And then you realize that somebody with bronze is more powerful than without, and steel is more powerful than bronze.
And if you look at the Romans, they persevered with artillery and they could stand off from 800 meters and blast you smithereens. You study the history of the Balearic slingers and you think we invented bullets, but they invented bullets to put in slings thousands of years ago that could have stood off 500 meters and put a hole in your head. And so there was never a time when humanity wasn’t vying to come up with an asymmetric form of projecting their own power via technology.
Lex Fridman
And absolute power is when a leader is able to control large amount of humans, they’re facing the same direction, working in the same direction to leverage energy.
And absolute power is when a leader is able to control large amount of humans, they’re facing the same direction, working in the same direction to leverage energy.
Michael Saylor
The most organized society wins. When the Romans were dominating everybody, they were the most organized civilization in Europe. As long as they stayed organized, they dominated. And at some point, they over-expanded and got disorganized and they collapsed. And I guess you could say the struggle of human condition. It catalyzes the development of new technologies one after the other. Anybody that rejects ocean power gets penalized. You reject artillery, you get penalized. You reject atomic power, you get penalized. If you reject digital power, cyber power, you get penalized. And the underlying control of the property keeps shifting hands from one institution or one government to another based upon how rationally they’re able to channel that energy and how well organized or coordinated they are.
The most organized society wins. When the Romans were dominating everybody, they were the most organized civilization in Europe. As long as they stayed organized, they dominated. And at some point, they over-expanded and got disorganized and they collapsed. And I guess you could say the struggle of human condition. It catalyzes the development of new technologies one after the other. Anybody that rejects ocean power gets penalized. You reject artillery, you get penalized. You reject atomic power, you get penalized. If you reject digital power, cyber power, you get penalized. And the underlying control of the property keeps shifting hands from one institution or one government to another based upon how rationally they’re able to channel that energy and how well organized or coordinated they are.
Lex Fridman
Well, that’s a really interesting thing about both the human mind and governments and companies, once they get a few good ideas, they seem to stick with them. They reject new ideas. It’s almost whether that’s emergent or however that evolved, it seems to have a really interesting effect, ’cause when you’re young, you fight for the new ideas. You push them through, then a few of us humans find success, then we get complacent. We take over the world using that new idea, and then the new young person with a better new idea challenges you. As opposed to pivoting, you stick with the old and lose because of it, and that’s how empires collapse. And it’s just both at the individual level that happens with two academics fighting about ideas or something like that. And at the human civilization level, governments. They hold on to the ideas of old. It’s fascinating.
Well, that’s a really interesting thing about both the human mind and governments and companies, once they get a few good ideas, they seem to stick with them. They reject new ideas. It’s almost whether that’s emergent or however that evolved, it seems to have a really interesting effect, ’cause when you’re young, you fight for the new ideas. You push them through, then a few of us humans find success, then we get complacent. We take over the world using that new idea, and then the new young person with a better new idea challenges you. As opposed to pivoting, you stick with the old and lose because of it, and that’s how empires collapse. And it’s just both at the individual level that happens with two academics fighting about ideas or something like that. And at the human civilization level, governments. They hold on to the ideas of old. It’s fascinating.
Michael Saylor
An ever-persistent theme in the history of science is the paradigm shifts, and the paradigms shift when the old guard dies and a new generation arrives. Or the paradigm shifts when there’s a war, and everyone that disagrees with the idea of aviation finds bombs dropping on their head or everyone that disagrees with whatever your technology is has a rude awakening. And if they totally disagree, their society collapses and they’re replaced by that new thing.
An ever-persistent theme in the history of science is the paradigm shifts, and the paradigms shift when the old guard dies and a new generation arrives. Or the paradigm shifts when there’s a war, and everyone that disagrees with the idea of aviation finds bombs dropping on their head or everyone that disagrees with whatever your technology is has a rude awakening. And if they totally disagree, their society collapses and they’re replaced by that new thing.
Dematerializing information
Lex Fridman
A lot of the engineering you talked about had to do with ships and cannons and leveraging water. What about this whole digital thing that’s happening, been happening over the past century? Is that still engineering in your mind? You’re starting to operate in these bits of information?
A lot of the engineering you talked about had to do with ships and cannons and leveraging water. What about this whole digital thing that’s happening, been happening over the past century? Is that still engineering in your mind? You’re starting to operate in these bits of information?
Michael Saylor
I think there’s two big ideas. The first wave of ideas were digital information, and that was the internet wave been running since 1990 or so for 30 years. And the second wave is digital energy. So if I look at digital information, this idea that we want to digitally transform a book, I’m going to dematerialize every book in this room into bits and then I’m going to deliver a copy of the entire library to a billion people, and I’m going to do it for pretty much de minimis electricity, if I can dematerialize music, books, education, entertainment, maps, that is an incredibly exothermic transaction.
I think there’s two big ideas. The first wave of ideas were digital information, and that was the internet wave been running since 1990 or so for 30 years. And the second wave is digital energy. So if I look at digital information, this idea that we want to digitally transform a book, I’m going to dematerialize every book in this room into bits and then I’m going to deliver a copy of the entire library to a billion people, and I’m going to do it for pretty much de minimis electricity, if I can dematerialize music, books, education, entertainment, maps, that is an incredibly exothermic transaction.
It’s a crystallization when we collapse into a lower energy state as a civilization and we give off massive amounts of energy. If you look at what Carnegie did, the richest man in the world created libraries everywhere at the time, and he gave away his entire fortune. And now we can give a better library to every six-year-old for nothing, and so what’s the value of giving a million books to 8 billion people? That’s the explosion in prosperity that comes from digital transformation. And when we do it with maps, I transform the map. I put it into a car. You get in the car and the car drives you where you want to go with the map. And how much better is that than a Rand McNally Atlas right here? It’s like a million times better.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
Atlas right here, it’s like a million times better.
Atlas right here, it’s like a million times better.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
So the first wave of digital transformation was the dematerialization of all of these informational things, which were non-conservative. That is, I could take Beethoven’s 5th Symphony played for by the best orchestra in Germany and I could give it to a billion people and they could play it 1000 times each at less than the cost of the one performance, right? So I deliver culture and education and erudition and intelligence and insight to the entire civilization over digital rails. And the consequences of the human race are first order generally good, right? The world is a better place. It drives growth and you create these trillion dollar entities like Apple, and Amazon, and Facebook, and Google, and Microsoft, right? That is the first wave. The second wave,-
So the first wave of digital transformation was the dematerialization of all of these informational things, which were non-conservative. That is, I could take Beethoven’s 5th Symphony played for by the best orchestra in Germany and I could give it to a billion people and they could play it 1000 times each at less than the cost of the one performance, right? So I deliver culture and education and erudition and intelligence and insight to the entire civilization over digital rails. And the consequences of the human race are first order generally good, right? The world is a better place. It drives growth and you create these trillion dollar entities like Apple, and Amazon, and Facebook, and Google, and Microsoft, right? That is the first wave. The second wave,-
Lex Fridman
Do you mind? Sorry to interrupt, but that first wave, it feels like the impact that’s positive. You said the first order impact is generally positive. It feels like it’s positive in a way that nothing else in history has been positive, and then we may not actually truly be able to understand the orders and magnitude of increase in productivity and just progress and human civilization until we look back centuries from now. Or maybe, like just looking at the impact of Wikipedia.
Do you mind? Sorry to interrupt, but that first wave, it feels like the impact that’s positive. You said the first order impact is generally positive. It feels like it’s positive in a way that nothing else in history has been positive, and then we may not actually truly be able to understand the orders and magnitude of increase in productivity and just progress and human civilization until we look back centuries from now. Or maybe, like just looking at the impact of Wikipedia.
Michael Saylor
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Giving access to basic wisdom or basic knowledge and then perhaps wisdom to billions of people. If you can just linger on that for a second, what’s your sense of the impact of that?
Giving access to basic wisdom or basic knowledge and then perhaps wisdom to billions of people. If you can just linger on that for a second, what’s your sense of the impact of that?
Michael Saylor
I would say if you’re a technologist philosopher, the impact of a technology is so much greater on the civilization and the human condition than a non-technology, that it’s almost not worth your trouble to bother trying to fix things a conventional way. So let’s take example. I have a foundation, the Saylor Academy and the Saylor Academy gives away free education, free college education to anybody on earth that wants it. And we’ve had more than a million students. And if you go and you take the physics class, the lectures were by the same physics lecturer that taught me physics at MIT, except when I was at MIT, the cost of the first four weeks of MIT would’ve drained my family’s life, collective life savings for the first last 100 years.
I would say if you’re a technologist philosopher, the impact of a technology is so much greater on the civilization and the human condition than a non-technology, that it’s almost not worth your trouble to bother trying to fix things a conventional way. So let’s take example. I have a foundation, the Saylor Academy and the Saylor Academy gives away free education, free college education to anybody on earth that wants it. And we’ve had more than a million students. And if you go and you take the physics class, the lectures were by the same physics lecturer that taught me physics at MIT, except when I was at MIT, the cost of the first four weeks of MIT would’ve drained my family’s life, collective life savings for the first last 100 years.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
100 years worth of my father, my grandfather, my great-grandfather, they saved every penny they had after 100 years, they could have paid for one week or two weeks of MIT. That’s how fiendishly expensive and inefficient it was. So I went on scholarship. I was lucky to have a scholarship, but on the other hand, I sat in the back of the 801 lecture hall and I was right up in the rafters. It’s an awful experience on these uncomfortable wooden benches and you can barely see the blackboard and you got to be there synchronously. And the stuff we upload, you can start it and stop it and watch it on your iPad or watch it on your computer and rewind it multiple times and sit in a comfortable chair and you can do it from anywhere on earth and it’s absolutely free.
100 years worth of my father, my grandfather, my great-grandfather, they saved every penny they had after 100 years, they could have paid for one week or two weeks of MIT. That’s how fiendishly expensive and inefficient it was. So I went on scholarship. I was lucky to have a scholarship, but on the other hand, I sat in the back of the 801 lecture hall and I was right up in the rafters. It’s an awful experience on these uncomfortable wooden benches and you can barely see the blackboard and you got to be there synchronously. And the stuff we upload, you can start it and stop it and watch it on your iPad or watch it on your computer and rewind it multiple times and sit in a comfortable chair and you can do it from anywhere on earth and it’s absolutely free.
So I think about this and I think you want to improve the human condition? You need people with postgraduate level education. You need PhDs, and I know this sounds kind of elitist, but you want to cure cancer and you want to go to the Stars fusion drive. We need new propulsion, right? We need extraordinary breakthroughs in every area of basic science, be it biology, or propulsion, or material science, or computer science. You’re not doing that with an undergraduate degree. You’re certainly not doing it with a high school education, but the cost of a PhD is like a million bucks. There’s like 10 million PhDs in the world. If you check it out. There’s 8 billion people in the world. How many people could get a PhD or would want to? Maybe not 8 billion, but a billion, 500 million. Let’s just say 500 million to a billion. How do you go from 10 million to a billion highly educated people, all of them specializing in, and I don’t have to tell you how many different fields of human endeavor there are. I mean, your life is interviewing these experts and there’s so many, right? It’s amazing. So how do I give a multimillion dollar education to a billion people? And there’s two choices. You can either endow a scholarship, in which case you pay $75,000 a year. Okay. 75, let’s pay a million dollars and a million dollars a person. I can do it that way. And you’re never, even if you had a trillion dollars, if you had $10 trillion to throw at the problem and we’ve just thrown $10 trillion at certain problems, you don’t solve the problem, right? If I put $10 trillion on the table and I said, educate everybody, give them all a PhD, you still wouldn’t solve the problem. Harvard University can’t educate 18,000 people simultaneously or 87,000 or 800,000 or 8 million. So you have to dematerialize the professor and dematerialize the experience. So you put it all as streaming on demand, computer generated education, and you create simulations where you need to create simulations and you upload it.
It’s like the human condition is being held back by 500,000 well-meaning average algebra teachers. I love them. I mean, please don’t take of offense if you’re an algebra teacher, but instead of 500,000 algebra teachers going through the same motion over and over again, what you need is one or five or 10 really good algebra teachers and they need to do it a billion times a day or a billion times a year for free. And if we do that, there’s no reason why you can’t give infinite education, certainly in science, technology, engineering, and math, right, infinite education to everybody with no constraint. And I think the same is true, right, with just about every other thing. If you want to bring joy to the world, you need digital music. If you want to bring enlightenment to the world, you need digital education. If you want to bring anything of consequence in the world, you got to digitally transform it and then you got to manufacture it, something like 100 times more efficiently as a start, but a million times more efficiently is probably optimal. That’s hopeful. Maybe you have a chance.
If you look at all of these space endeavors and everything, we’re thinking about getting to Mars, getting off the planet, getting to other worlds. Number one thing you got to do is you got to make a fundamental breakthrough in an engine. People dreamed about flying for thousands of years, but until the internal combustion engine, you didn’t have enough energy, enough power in a light enough package in order to solve the problem. And the human race has all sorts of those fundamental engines and materials and techniques that we need to master. And each one of them is a lifetime of experimentation, of someone capable of making a seminal contribution to the body of human knowledge.
Lex Fridman
There are certain problems like education that could be solved through this process of dematerialization. And by the way, to give props to the 500K algebra teachers, when I look at YouTube for example, one possible approach is each one of those 500,000 teachers probably had days and moments of brilliance. And if they had ability to contribute to in the natural selection process, like the market of education where the best ones rise up, that’s a really interesting way, which is the best day of your life, the best lesson you’ve ever taught could be found and sort of broadcast to billions of people. So all of those kinds of ideas can be made real in the digital world. Now, traveling across planets, you still can’t solve that problem with dematerialization. What you could solve potentially is dematerializing the human brain where you can transfer, like you don’t need to have astronauts on the ship. You can have a floppy disk carrying a human brain
There are certain problems like education that could be solved through this process of dematerialization. And by the way, to give props to the 500K algebra teachers, when I look at YouTube for example, one possible approach is each one of those 500,000 teachers probably had days and moments of brilliance. And if they had ability to contribute to in the natural selection process, like the market of education where the best ones rise up, that’s a really interesting way, which is the best day of your life, the best lesson you’ve ever taught could be found and sort of broadcast to billions of people. So all of those kinds of ideas can be made real in the digital world. Now, traveling across planets, you still can’t solve that problem with dematerialization. What you could solve potentially is dematerializing the human brain where you can transfer, like you don’t need to have astronauts on the ship. You can have a floppy disk carrying a human brain
Michael Saylor
Touching on those points. You’d love for the 500,000 algebra teachers to become 500,000 math specialists, and maybe they clump into 50,000 specialties as teams and they all pursue 50,000 new problems and they put their algebra teaching on autopilot.
Touching on those points. You’d love for the 500,000 algebra teachers to become 500,000 math specialists, and maybe they clump into 50,000 specialties as teams and they all pursue 50,000 new problems and they put their algebra teaching on autopilot.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Yes.
Yeah. Yes.
Michael Saylor
That’s the same as when I give you 11 cents worth of electricity. And you don’t have to row a boat eight hours a day before you can eat. Right.
That’s the same as when I give you 11 cents worth of electricity. And you don’t have to row a boat eight hours a day before you can eat. Right.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Michael Saylor
It would be a lot better. That you would pay for your food in the first eight seconds of your day and then you could start thinking about other things. Right. With regard to technology, one thing that I learned studying technology, when you look at S-curves, is until you start the S-curve, you don’t know whether you’re 100 from viability, 1000 years from viability or a few months from viability. So,-
It would be a lot better. That you would pay for your food in the first eight seconds of your day and then you could start thinking about other things. Right. With regard to technology, one thing that I learned studying technology, when you look at S-curves, is until you start the S-curve, you don’t know whether you’re 100 from viability, 1000 years from viability or a few months from viability. So,-
Lex Fridman
Isn’t that fun? That’s so fun. The early part of the S-curve is so fun because you don’t know.
Isn’t that fun? That’s so fun. The early part of the S-curve is so fun because you don’t know.
Michael Saylor
In 1900 you could have got any number of learned academics to give you 10,000 reasons why humans will never fly.
In 1900 you could have got any number of learned academics to give you 10,000 reasons why humans will never fly.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
Right. And in 1903, the Wright brothers flew, and by 1969 we’re walking on the moon. So the advance that we made in that field was extraordinary. But for the 100 years and 200 years before, they were just back and forth and nobody was close. And that’s the happy part. The happy part is we went from flying 20 miles an hour or whatever to flying 25,000 miles an hour in 66 years. The unhappy part is I studied aeronautical engineering at MIT in the 80s. And in the 80s we had Gulfstream aircraft, we had Boeing 737s, we had the space shuttle. And you fast-forward 40 years and we pretty much had the same exact aircraft. The efficiency of the engines was 20, 30% more.
Right. And in 1903, the Wright brothers flew, and by 1969 we’re walking on the moon. So the advance that we made in that field was extraordinary. But for the 100 years and 200 years before, they were just back and forth and nobody was close. And that’s the happy part. The happy part is we went from flying 20 miles an hour or whatever to flying 25,000 miles an hour in 66 years. The unhappy part is I studied aeronautical engineering at MIT in the 80s. And in the 80s we had Gulfstream aircraft, we had Boeing 737s, we had the space shuttle. And you fast-forward 40 years and we pretty much had the same exact aircraft. The efficiency of the engines was 20, 30% more.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
Right. We slammed into a brick wall around 69 to 75. In fact, the Global Express, the Gulfstream, these were all engineered in the 70s, some in the 60s. The fuselage silhouette of a Gulfstream of a G5 was the same shape as a G4 is the same shape as a G3, is the same shape as a G2. And that’s because they were afraid to change the shape for 40 years because they worked it out in a wind tunnel. They knew it worked. And when they finally decided to change the shape, it was like a $10 billion exercise with modern supercomputers and computational fluid dynamics.
Right. We slammed into a brick wall around 69 to 75. In fact, the Global Express, the Gulfstream, these were all engineered in the 70s, some in the 60s. The fuselage silhouette of a Gulfstream of a G5 was the same shape as a G4 is the same shape as a G3, is the same shape as a G2. And that’s because they were afraid to change the shape for 40 years because they worked it out in a wind tunnel. They knew it worked. And when they finally decided to change the shape, it was like a $10 billion exercise with modern supercomputers and computational fluid dynamics.
Lex Fridman
Why was it so hard? What is that wall made of that you slammed into?
Why was it so hard? What is that wall made of that you slammed into?
Michael Saylor
The right question is, so why does the guy that went to MIT that got an aeronautical engineering degree, spent his career in software? Why is it that I never a day in my life with the exception of some Air Force Reserve work, I never got paid to be an aeronautical engineer, and I worked in software engineering my entire career.
The right question is, so why does the guy that went to MIT that got an aeronautical engineering degree, spent his career in software? Why is it that I never a day in my life with the exception of some Air Force Reserve work, I never got paid to be an aeronautical engineer, and I worked in software engineering my entire career.
Lex Fridman
Well, maybe software engineering is the new aeronautical engineering in some way. Maybe you hit fundamental walls until you have to return to it centuries later, or no.
Well, maybe software engineering is the new aeronautical engineering in some way. Maybe you hit fundamental walls until you have to return to it centuries later, or no.
Michael Saylor
The National Gallery of Art was endowed by a very rich man, Andrew Mellon, and you know how he made his money? Aluminum. Okay. And you know what kind of airplanes you can create without aluminum? Nothing. Nothing, right?
The National Gallery of Art was endowed by a very rich man, Andrew Mellon, and you know how he made his money? Aluminum. Okay. And you know what kind of airplanes you can create without aluminum? Nothing. Nothing, right?
Lex Fridman
So it’s a materialist problem.
So it’s a materialist problem.
Michael Saylor
Okay. So 1900, we made massive advances in metallurgy, right? I mean, that was US Steel, that was iron to steel, aluminum, massive fortunes were created because this was a massive technical advance. And then we also had the internal combustion engine and the story of Ford and General Motors and DaimlerChrysler and the like is informed by that. So you have no jet engines, no rocket motors, no internal combustion engines, you have no aviation. But even if you had those engines, if you were trying to build those things with steel, no chance. You had to have aluminum. So there’s two pretty basic technologies, and once you have those two technologies, stuff happens very fast. So tell me the last big advance in jet engines. There hasn’t been one there. The last big advance in rocket engines. Hasn’t been one. The big advances in spaceship design, from what I can see are in the control systems, the gyros and the ability to land, right, in a stable fashion. That’s pretty amazing, landing a rocket.
Okay. So 1900, we made massive advances in metallurgy, right? I mean, that was US Steel, that was iron to steel, aluminum, massive fortunes were created because this was a massive technical advance. And then we also had the internal combustion engine and the story of Ford and General Motors and DaimlerChrysler and the like is informed by that. So you have no jet engines, no rocket motors, no internal combustion engines, you have no aviation. But even if you had those engines, if you were trying to build those things with steel, no chance. You had to have aluminum. So there’s two pretty basic technologies, and once you have those two technologies, stuff happens very fast. So tell me the last big advance in jet engines. There hasn’t been one there. The last big advance in rocket engines. Hasn’t been one. The big advances in spaceship design, from what I can see are in the control systems, the gyros and the ability to land, right, in a stable fashion. That’s pretty amazing, landing a rocket.
Lex Fridman
Also in the, at least according to the Elon and so on, the manufacture of more efficient and less expensive manufacturer of rockets. So it’s a production, whatever that you call that discipline of at scale manufacture, at scale production. So factory work, but it’s not 10X. I mean maybe it’s 10X over a period of a few decades.
Also in the, at least according to the Elon and so on, the manufacture of more efficient and less expensive manufacturer of rockets. So it’s a production, whatever that you call that discipline of at scale manufacture, at scale production. So factory work, but it’s not 10X. I mean maybe it’s 10X over a period of a few decades.
Michael Saylor
When we figure out how to operate a spaceship on the water in your water bottle for a year.
When we figure out how to operate a spaceship on the water in your water bottle for a year.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
Right. Now, then you’ve got a breakthrough. So the bottom line is propulsion technology, propellants, and the materials technology, they were critical to getting on that aviation S-curve. And then we slammed into a wall in the 70s and the Boeing 747, the Global Express, the Gulfstream, these things were, the space shuttle, they were all pretty much reflective of that. And then we stopped. And at that point, you have to switch to a new S-curve. So the next equivalent to the internal combustion engine was the CPU, and the next aluminum equivalent was silicon.
Right. Now, then you’ve got a breakthrough. So the bottom line is propulsion technology, propellants, and the materials technology, they were critical to getting on that aviation S-curve. And then we slammed into a wall in the 70s and the Boeing 747, the Global Express, the Gulfstream, these things were, the space shuttle, they were all pretty much reflective of that. And then we stopped. And at that point, you have to switch to a new S-curve. So the next equivalent to the internal combustion engine was the CPU, and the next aluminum equivalent was silicon.
So when we actually started developing CPUs, transistor gave way to CPUs. And if you look at the power, right, the bandwidth that we had on computers and Moore’s law, right? What if the efficiency of jet engines had doubled every three years, right, in the last 40 years where we be right now? Right. So I think that if you’re a business person, if you’re looking for a commercially viable application of your mind, then you have to find that S-curve. And ideally you have to find it in the first five, six, 10 years. But people always miss this. Let’s take Google Glass, right? Google Glass was an idea 2013. The year is 2022. And people were quite sure this was going to be a big thing but,-
Lex Fridman
And it could have been at the beginning of the S-curve.
And it could have been at the beginning of the S-curve.
Michael Saylor
But fundamentally, we didn’t really have an effective mechanism. I mean, people getting vertigo and their,-
But fundamentally, we didn’t really have an effective mechanism. I mean, people getting vertigo and their,-
Lex Fridman
But you didn’t know that at the beginning of the S-curve, right? I mean, maybe some people had a deep intuition about the fundamentals of augmented reality, but you don’t know that. You don’t have those, you’re looking through the fog. You don’t know.
But you didn’t know that at the beginning of the S-curve, right? I mean, maybe some people had a deep intuition about the fundamentals of augmented reality, but you don’t know that. You don’t have those, you’re looking through the fog. You don’t know.
Michael Saylor
So the point is, we’re year zero in 2013, and we’re still year zero in 2022 on that augmented reality. And when somebody puts out a set of glasses that you can wear comfortably without getting vertigo, right, without any disorientation that managed to have the stability and the bandwidth necessary to sync with the real world, you’ll be in year one. And from that point, you’ll have a 70 year or some interesting future until you slam into a limit to growth.
So the point is, we’re year zero in 2013, and we’re still year zero in 2022 on that augmented reality. And when somebody puts out a set of glasses that you can wear comfortably without getting vertigo, right, without any disorientation that managed to have the stability and the bandwidth necessary to sync with the real world, you’ll be in year one. And from that point, you’ll have a 70 year or some interesting future until you slam into a limit to growth.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
And then it’ll slow down. And this is the story of a lot of things, right? I mean, John D. Rockefeller got in the oil business in the 1860s, and the oil business as we understood it became fairly mature by the 1920s to 30s. And then it actually stayed that way until we got to fracking, which was like seven years later, and then it burst forward, so.
And then it’ll slow down. And this is the story of a lot of things, right? I mean, John D. Rockefeller got in the oil business in the 1860s, and the oil business as we understood it became fairly mature by the 1920s to 30s. And then it actually stayed that way until we got to fracking, which was like seven years later, and then it burst forward, so.
Lex Fridman
The interesting story about Moore’s law though is that you get this constant burst of S-curves, on top of S-curves, on top of S-curves. It’s like the moment you start slowing down or almost ahead of you slowing down, you come up with another innovation, another innovation. So Moore’s law doesn’t seem to happen in every technological advancement. It seems like you only get a couple of S-curves and then you’re done for a bit. So I wonder what the pressures there are that resulted in such success over several decades and still going.
The interesting story about Moore’s law though is that you get this constant burst of S-curves, on top of S-curves, on top of S-curves. It’s like the moment you start slowing down or almost ahead of you slowing down, you come up with another innovation, another innovation. So Moore’s law doesn’t seem to happen in every technological advancement. It seems like you only get a couple of S-curves and then you’re done for a bit. So I wonder what the pressures there are that resulted in such success over several decades and still going.
Michael Saylor
Humility dictates that nobody knows when the S-curve kicks off, and you could be 20 years early or 100 years early. Leonardo da Vinci, Michelangelo, they were designing flying machines hundreds and hundreds of years ago. So humility says you’re not quite sure when you really hit that commercial viability. And it also dictates you don’t know when it ends. When will the party stop? When will Moore’s law stop and we’ll get to the point where they’re exponentially diminishing returns on silicon performance and just like we got exponentially diminishing returns on jet engines, and it just takes an exponential increase in effort to make it 10% better, but while you’re in the middle of it, then you know can do things.
Humility dictates that nobody knows when the S-curve kicks off, and you could be 20 years early or 100 years early. Leonardo da Vinci, Michelangelo, they were designing flying machines hundreds and hundreds of years ago. So humility says you’re not quite sure when you really hit that commercial viability. And it also dictates you don’t know when it ends. When will the party stop? When will Moore’s law stop and we’ll get to the point where they’re exponentially diminishing returns on silicon performance and just like we got exponentially diminishing returns on jet engines, and it just takes an exponential increase in effort to make it 10% better, but while you’re in the middle of it, then you know can do things.
So the reason that the digital revolution is so important is because the underlying platforms, the bandwidth and the performance of the components, and I say the components are the radio protocols, mobile protocols, the batteries, the CPUs, and the displays. Right. Those four components are pretty critical. They’re all critical in the creation of an iPhone. I wrote about it in the book, The Mobile Wave, and they catalyzed this entire mobile revolution. Because they have advanced and continue to advance, they created the very fertile environment for all these transformations. And the digital transformations themselves, right, they call for creativity in their own. Right.
I think the interesting thing about let’s take digital maps. Right. When you conceptualize something as a dematerialized map, right, it becomes a map because I can put it on a display like an iPad or I can put it in a car like a Tesla. But if you really want to figure it out, you can’t think like an engineer. You need to think like a fantasy writer. This is where it’s useful if you played Dungeons and Dragons and you read Lord of the Rings and you studied all the fantasy literature, because when I dematerialize the map, first I put 10 million pages of satellite imagery into the map. Right.
That’s a simple physical transform. But then I start to put telemetry into the map, and I keep track of the traffic rates on the roads, and I tell you whether you’ll be in a traffic jam if you drive that way, and I tell you which way to drive. And then I start to get feedback on where you’re going. And I tell you, the restaurant’s closed and people don’t like it anyway. And then I put an AI on top of it and I have it drive your car for you. And eventually the implication of digital transformation of maps is I get into a self-driving car and I say, take me someplace cool where I can eat.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
Right. And how did you get to that last step? Right. It wasn’t simple engineering. There’s a bit of fantasy in there, a bit of magic.
Right. And how did you get to that last step? Right. It wasn’t simple engineering. There’s a bit of fantasy in there, a bit of magic.
Lex Fridman
Design, art, whatever the heck you call it, it’s whatever. Yeah. Fantasy injects magic into the engineering process. Imagination precedes great revolutions in engineering. It’s like imagining a world, like of what you can do with the display. How will the interaction be? That’s where Google Glass actually came in, augmented reality, virtual reality, people are playing in the space of sci-fi, imagination.
Design, art, whatever the heck you call it, it’s whatever. Yeah. Fantasy injects magic into the engineering process. Imagination precedes great revolutions in engineering. It’s like imagining a world, like of what you can do with the display. How will the interaction be? That’s where Google Glass actually came in, augmented reality, virtual reality, people are playing in the space of sci-fi, imagination.
Michael Saylor
They called it a moonshot. They tried, it didn’t work, but to their credit, they stopped trying.
They called it a moonshot. They tried, it didn’t work, but to their credit, they stopped trying.
Lex Fridman
And then there’s new people. They keep dreaming. Dreamers all around us. I love those dreamers. And most of them fail and suffer because of it, but some of them win Nobel Prizes or become billionaires.
And then there’s new people. They keep dreaming. Dreamers all around us. I love those dreamers. And most of them fail and suffer because of it, but some of them win Nobel Prizes or become billionaires.
Michael Saylor
Well, what I would say is if half the civilization dropped what they were doing tomorrow and eagerly started working on launching a rocket to Alpha Centauri, it might not be the best use of our resources because it’s kind of like if half of Athens in the year 500 BC eagerly started working on flying machines. If you went back and you said, what advice would you give them, you would say, it’s not going to work until you get to aluminum. And you’re not going to get to aluminum until you work out the steel and certain other things. And you’re not going to get to that until you work out the calculus of variations and some metallurgy. And there’s a dude Newton that won’t come along for quite a while and he’s going to give you the calculus to do it. And until then, it’s hopeless.
Well, what I would say is if half the civilization dropped what they were doing tomorrow and eagerly started working on launching a rocket to Alpha Centauri, it might not be the best use of our resources because it’s kind of like if half of Athens in the year 500 BC eagerly started working on flying machines. If you went back and you said, what advice would you give them, you would say, it’s not going to work until you get to aluminum. And you’re not going to get to aluminum until you work out the steel and certain other things. And you’re not going to get to that until you work out the calculus of variations and some metallurgy. And there’s a dude Newton that won’t come along for quite a while and he’s going to give you the calculus to do it. And until then, it’s hopeless.
So you might be better off to work on the aqueduct or to focus upon sales or something. So if I look at this today, I say there’s massive profound civilization advances to be made through digital transformation of information. And you can see them. This is not the story of today, right? It’s 10 years old, what we’ve been seeing.
Lex Fridman
We’re living through different manifestations of that story today too though, like social media, the effects of that is very interesting because ideas spread even, you talk about velocity of money, the velocity of ideas keeps increasing.
We’re living through different manifestations of that story today too though, like social media, the effects of that is very interesting because ideas spread even, you talk about velocity of money, the velocity of ideas keeps increasing.
Michael Saylor
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So Wikipedia is a passive store. It’s a store of knowledge. Twitter is like a water hose or something. It’s like spraying you with knowledge whether you want it or not. It’s like social media is just like this explosion of ideas. And then we pick them up and then we try to understand ourselves because the drama of it also plays with our human psyche. So sometimes there’s more ability for misinformation, for propaganda to take hold. So we get to learn about ourselves, we get to learn about the technology that can decelerate the propaganda, for example, all that kind of stuff. But the reality is we’re living, I feel like we’re living through a singularity in the digital information space, and we don’t have a great understanding of exactly how it’s transforming our lives.
So Wikipedia is a passive store. It’s a store of knowledge. Twitter is like a water hose or something. It’s like spraying you with knowledge whether you want it or not. It’s like social media is just like this explosion of ideas. And then we pick them up and then we try to understand ourselves because the drama of it also plays with our human psyche. So sometimes there’s more ability for misinformation, for propaganda to take hold. So we get to learn about ourselves, we get to learn about the technology that can decelerate the propaganda, for example, all that kind of stuff. But the reality is we’re living, I feel like we’re living through a singularity in the digital information space, and we don’t have a great understanding of exactly how it’s transforming our lives.
Michael Saylor
And this is where money is useful as a metaphor for significance. Because if money is the economic energy of the civilization, then something that’s extraordinarily lucrative that’s going to generate a monetary or a wealth increase is a way to increase the net energy and the civilization. And ultimately, if we had 10 times as much of everything, we’d have a lot more free resources to pursue all of our advanced scientific and mathematical and theoretical endeavors. So let’s take Twitter. Right. Twitter’s something that could be 10 times more valuable than it is. Right. Twitter could be made 10 times better.
And this is where money is useful as a metaphor for significance. Because if money is the economic energy of the civilization, then something that’s extraordinarily lucrative that’s going to generate a monetary or a wealth increase is a way to increase the net energy and the civilization. And ultimately, if we had 10 times as much of everything, we’d have a lot more free resources to pursue all of our advanced scientific and mathematical and theoretical endeavors. So let’s take Twitter. Right. Twitter’s something that could be 10 times more valuable than it is. Right. Twitter could be made 10 times better.
Lex Fridman
Oh, by the way, I should say that people should follow you on Twitter. Your Twitter account is awesome.
Oh, by the way, I should say that people should follow you on Twitter. Your Twitter account is awesome.
Michael Saylor
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you.
Lex Fridman
It could be made 10 times better. Yeah.
It could be made 10 times better. Yeah.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, Twitter can be made 10 times better. If we take YouTube or take education, we could generate a billion PhDs. And the question is, do you need any profound breakthrough in materials or technology to do that? The answer is not really. Right. So if you want to, you could make Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, Twitter, all these things better. The United States government, if they took 1% of the money they spend on the Department of Education and they simply poured it into digital education and they gave degrees to people that actually met those requirements, they could provide 100X as much education for one 100th of the cost, and they could do it with no new technology. That’s a marketing and political challenge.
Yeah, Twitter can be made 10 times better. If we take YouTube or take education, we could generate a billion PhDs. And the question is, do you need any profound breakthrough in materials or technology to do that? The answer is not really. Right. So if you want to, you could make Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, Twitter, all these things better. The United States government, if they took 1% of the money they spend on the Department of Education and they simply poured it into digital education and they gave degrees to people that actually met those requirements, they could provide 100X as much education for one 100th of the cost, and they could do it with no new technology. That’s a marketing and political challenge.
So I don’t think every objective is equally practical. And I think the benefit of being an engineer or thinking about practical achievements is when the government pursues an impractical objective or when anybody, an entrepreneur, not so bad with an entrepreneur because they don’t have that much money to waste. When a government pursues an impractical objective, they squander trillions and trillions of dollars and achieve nothing. Whereas if they pursue a practical objective or if they simply get out of the way and do nothing and they allow the free market to pursue the practical objectives, then I think you can have profound impact on the human civilization.
And if I look at the world we’re in today, I think that there are multi- trillion 10, 20, $50 trillion worth of opportunities in the digital information realm yet to be obtained. But there’s hundreds of trillions of dollars of opportunities in the digital energy realm that not only are they not obtained, the majority of people don’t even know what digital energy is. Most of them would reject the concept. They’re not looking for it. They’re not expecting to find it. It’s inconceivable because it is a paradigm shift, but in fact, it’s completely practical. Right under our nose. It’s staring at us, and it could make the entire civilization work dramatically better in every respect.
Digital energy and assets
Lex Fridman
So you mentioned in the digital world, digital information is one, digital energy is two, and the possible impact on the world and the set of opportunities available in the digital energy space is much greater. So how do you think about digital energy? What is it?
So you mentioned in the digital world, digital information is one, digital energy is two, and the possible impact on the world and the set of opportunities available in the digital energy space is much greater. So how do you think about digital energy? What is it?
Michael Saylor
So I’ll start with Tesla. He had a very famous quote. He said, “If you want to understand the universe, think in terms of energy, vibration< and frequency." And it gets you thinking about what is the universe? And of course, the universe is just all energy. And then what is matter? Matter is low frequency energy. And what are we? We're vibrating, ashes to ashes, dust to dust. I can turn a tree into light. I can turn light back into a tree. If I consider the entire universe, and it's very important because we don't really think this way. Let's take the New York disco model. If I walk into a nightclub and there's loud music blaring in New York City, what's really going on there? Right. If you blast out 14 billion years ago, the universe is formed. Okay, that's a low frequency thing. The universe. Four and a half billion years ago, the sun, maybe the earth are formed. The continents are 400 million years old. The shift that New York City is on is some hundreds of millions of years, but the Hudson River is only 20,000 years.
So I’ll start with Tesla. He had a very famous quote. He said, “If you want to understand the universe, think in terms of energy, vibration< and frequency." And it gets you thinking about what is the universe? And of course, the universe is just all energy. And then what is matter? Matter is low frequency energy. And what are we? We're vibrating, ashes to ashes, dust to dust. I can turn a tree into light. I can turn light back into a tree. If I consider the entire universe, and it's very important because we don't really think this way. Let's take the New York disco model. If I walk into a nightclub and there's loud music blaring in New York City, what's really going on there? Right. If you blast out 14 billion years ago, the universe is formed. Okay, that's a low frequency thing. The universe. Four and a half billion years ago, the sun, maybe the earth are formed. The continents are 400 million years old. The shift that New York City is on is some hundreds of millions of years, but the Hudson River is only 20,000 years.
There’s a building that’s probably 50 years old. There’s a company operating that disco or that club, which is five to 10 years old. There’s a person, a customer walking in there for an experience for a few hours. There’s music that’s oscillating at some kilohertz, and then there’s light.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Michael Saylor
And you have all forms of energy, all frequencies, right, all layered, all moving through different medium. And how you perceive the world is the question of at what frequency do you want to perceive the world? And I think that once you start to think that way, you’re catalyzed to think about what would digital energy look like and why would I want it? And what is it? So why don’t we just start right there. What is it? The most famous manifestation of digital energy is Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s a crypto asset. It’s a crypto asset that has monetary value.
And you have all forms of energy, all frequencies, right, all layered, all moving through different medium. And how you perceive the world is the question of at what frequency do you want to perceive the world? And I think that once you start to think that way, you’re catalyzed to think about what would digital energy look like and why would I want it? And what is it? So why don’t we just start right there. What is it? The most famous manifestation of digital energy is Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s a crypto asset. It’s a crypto asset that has monetary value.
Lex Fridman
Can we just linger on that? Bitcoin is digital asset that has monetary value. What is a digital asset? What is monetary? Why use those terms versus the words of money and currency? Is there something interesting in that disambiguation of different terms?
Can we just linger on that? Bitcoin is digital asset that has monetary value. What is a digital asset? What is monetary? Why use those terms versus the words of money and currency? Is there something interesting in that disambiguation of different terms?
Michael Saylor
I’d call it a crypto asset network. The goal is to create a billion dollar block of pure energy in cyberspace, one that I could then move with no friction at the speed of light. Right. It’s the equivalent to putting a million pounds in orbit. How do I actually launch something into orbit? Right. How do I launch something into cyberspace such that it moves friction free? And the solution is a decentralized proof-of-work network. Right. Satoshi’s solution was, I’m going to establish protocol running on a distributed set of computers that will maintain a constant supply of never more than 21 million Bitcoins subdividable by 100 million Satoshis each transferable via transferring private keys. Now, the innovation is to create that in a ethical, durable fashion. Right. The ethical innovation is I want it to be property and not a security. A bushel of corn, an acre of land, a stack of lumber, and a bar of gold and a Bitcoin are all property. And that means they’re all commonly occurring elements in the world.
I’d call it a crypto asset network. The goal is to create a billion dollar block of pure energy in cyberspace, one that I could then move with no friction at the speed of light. Right. It’s the equivalent to putting a million pounds in orbit. How do I actually launch something into orbit? Right. How do I launch something into cyberspace such that it moves friction free? And the solution is a decentralized proof-of-work network. Right. Satoshi’s solution was, I’m going to establish protocol running on a distributed set of computers that will maintain a constant supply of never more than 21 million Bitcoins subdividable by 100 million Satoshis each transferable via transferring private keys. Now, the innovation is to create that in a ethical, durable fashion. Right. The ethical innovation is I want it to be property and not a security. A bushel of corn, an acre of land, a stack of lumber, and a bar of gold and a Bitcoin are all property. And that means they’re all commonly occurring elements in the world.
Michael Saylor
… they’re all commonly occurring elements in the world. You could call them commodities, but commodity is a little bit misleading, and I’ll tell you why in a second. But they’re all distinguished by the fact that no one entity or person or government controls them. If you have a barrel of oil and you’re in Ukraine versus Russia versus Saudi, Arabia versus the US, you have a barrel of oil, right? And it doesn’t matter what the premier in Japan or the mayor of Miami Beach thinks about your barrel of oil, they cannot wave their hand and make it not a barrel of oil or a cord of wood. And so property is just a naturally occurring element in the universe.
… they’re all commonly occurring elements in the world. You could call them commodities, but commodity is a little bit misleading, and I’ll tell you why in a second. But they’re all distinguished by the fact that no one entity or person or government controls them. If you have a barrel of oil and you’re in Ukraine versus Russia versus Saudi, Arabia versus the US, you have a barrel of oil, right? And it doesn’t matter what the premier in Japan or the mayor of Miami Beach thinks about your barrel of oil, they cannot wave their hand and make it not a barrel of oil or a cord of wood. And so property is just a naturally occurring element in the universe.
Lex Fridman
Why use the word ethical? And sorry, I may interrupt occasionally. Why ethical assigned to property?
Why use the word ethical? And sorry, I may interrupt occasionally. Why ethical assigned to property?
Michael Saylor
Because if it’s a security, a security would be an example of a share of a stock or a crypto token controlled by a small team. And in the event that something is a security because some small group or some identifiable group can control its nature, character, supply, then it really only becomes ethical to promote it or sell it pursuant to fair disclosures. So, I’ll give you maybe practical example. I’m the mayor of Chicago. I give a speech. In my speech, I’ll say, “I think everybody in Chicago should own their own farm and have a chicken in the backyard and their own horse and an automobile.” That’s ethical. I give the same speech and I say, “I think everybody in Chicago should buy Twitter stock. Sell their house or sell their cash and buy Twitter stock.” Is that ethical? Not really. But at that point you’ve entered into a conflict of interest because what you’re doing is you’re promoting an asset which is substantially controlled by a small group of people, the board of directors or the CEO of the company.
Because if it’s a security, a security would be an example of a share of a stock or a crypto token controlled by a small team. And in the event that something is a security because some small group or some identifiable group can control its nature, character, supply, then it really only becomes ethical to promote it or sell it pursuant to fair disclosures. So, I’ll give you maybe practical example. I’m the mayor of Chicago. I give a speech. In my speech, I’ll say, “I think everybody in Chicago should own their own farm and have a chicken in the backyard and their own horse and an automobile.” That’s ethical. I give the same speech and I say, “I think everybody in Chicago should buy Twitter stock. Sell their house or sell their cash and buy Twitter stock.” Is that ethical? Not really. But at that point you’ve entered into a conflict of interest because what you’re doing is you’re promoting an asset which is substantially controlled by a small group of people, the board of directors or the CEO of the company.
So, how would you feel if the president of the United States said, “I really think Americans should all buy Apple stock,” especially if you worked at Google. But if you worked anywhere, you’d be like, “Why isn’t he saying buy mine?” Right? A security is a proprietary asset in some way, shape or form. And the whole nature of securities law, it starts from this ancient idea, thou shalt not lie, cheat or steal. Okay? If I’m going to sell you securities or I’m going to promote securities as a public figure or as an influencer or anybody else. If I create my own Yo-Yo coin or Mikey coin, and then there’s a million of them, and I tell you that I think that it’s a really good thing, and Mikey coin will go up forever and everybody buys Mikey coin and then I give 10 million to you and don’t tell the public, I’ve cheated them.
Maybe if I have Mikey coin and I think there’s only 2 million Mikey coin, and I swear to you there’s only 2 million, and then I get married and I have three kids and my third kid is in the hospital and my kid’s going to die and I have this ethical reason to print 500,000 more Mikey coin or else people are going to die, and everybody tells me it’s fine, I’ve still abused the investor, right? It’s an ethical challenge. If you look at ethics laws everywhere in the world, they all boil down to having a clause which says that if you’re a public figure, you can’t endorse a security. You can’t endorse something that would cause you to have a conflict of interest.
So, if you’re a mayor, a governor, a country, a public figure, an influencer, and you want to promote or promulgate or support something using any public influence or funds or resources you may have, it needs to be property. It can’t be security. So, it goes beyond that, right? I mean, would the Chinese want to support an American company? As soon as you look at what’s in the best interest of the human race, the civilization, you realize that if you want an ethical path forward, it needs to be based on common property, which is fair. And the way you get to a common property is through an open permissionless protocol. If it’s not open, if it’s proprietary and I know what the code says and you don’t know what the code says, that makes it a security.
If it’s permissioned, you’re not allowed on my network. Or if you can be censored or booted off my network, that also makes it a security. When I talk about property, I mean the challenge here is how do I create something that’s equivalent to a barrel of oil in cyberspace? And that means it has to be a non-sovereign bearer instrument, open, permissionless, not censorable, right? If I could do that, then I could deliver you 10,000 dematerialized barrels of oil and you would take settlement of them and you would know that you have possession of that property, irregardless of the opinion of any politician or any company or anybody else in the world.
That’s a really critical characteristic. And it actually is, it’s probably one of the fundamental things that makes Bitcoin special. Bitcoin isn’t just a crypto-asset network. It’s easy to create a crypto-asset network. It’s very hard to create an ethical crypto-asset network because you have to create one without any government or corporation or investor exercising into influence to make it successful.
Oil barrel vs Bitcoin
Lex Fridman
So open, permissionless, noncensorable. So basically no way for you without explicitly saying so, outsourcing control to somebody else. So it’s a kind of, you have full control. Even with a barrel of oil, what’s the difference between a barrel of oil and a Bitcoin to you? Because you kind of mentioned that both are property. You mentioned Russia and China and so on. Is it the ability of the government to confiscate? In the end, governments can probably confiscate no matter what the asset is, but you want to lessen the effort involved.
So open, permissionless, noncensorable. So basically no way for you without explicitly saying so, outsourcing control to somebody else. So it’s a kind of, you have full control. Even with a barrel of oil, what’s the difference between a barrel of oil and a Bitcoin to you? Because you kind of mentioned that both are property. You mentioned Russia and China and so on. Is it the ability of the government to confiscate? In the end, governments can probably confiscate no matter what the asset is, but you want to lessen the effort involved.
Michael Saylor
And barrel oil is a bucket of physical property. Liquid property.
And barrel oil is a bucket of physical property. Liquid property.
Lex Fridman
That’s very [inaudible 01:49:27].
That’s very [inaudible 01:49:27].
Michael Saylor
And Bitcoin is a digital property.
And Bitcoin is a digital property.
Lex Fridman
But it’s easier to confiscate a barrel of oil.
But it’s easier to confiscate a barrel of oil.
Michael Saylor
It’s easier to confiscate things in the real world than things in cyberspace, much easier.
It’s easier to confiscate things in the real world than things in cyberspace, much easier.
Lex Fridman
So, that’s not universally true. Some things in the digital space are actually easier to confiscate because just the nature of how things move easily with information, right?
So, that’s not universally true. Some things in the digital space are actually easier to confiscate because just the nature of how things move easily with information, right?
Michael Saylor
I think in the Bitcoin world, what we would say is that Bitcoin is the most difficult property that the human race possesses or has yet invented to confiscate. And that’s by virtue of the fact that you could take possession of it via your private keys. So, if you’ve got your 12 seed phrases in your head, then that would be the highest form of property, right? Because I literally have to crack your head open and read your mind to take it. It doesn’t mean I couldn’t extract it from you under duress, but it means that it’s harder than every other thing you might own. In fact, it’s exponentially harder.
I think in the Bitcoin world, what we would say is that Bitcoin is the most difficult property that the human race possesses or has yet invented to confiscate. And that’s by virtue of the fact that you could take possession of it via your private keys. So, if you’ve got your 12 seed phrases in your head, then that would be the highest form of property, right? Because I literally have to crack your head open and read your mind to take it. It doesn’t mean I couldn’t extract it from you under duress, but it means that it’s harder than every other thing you might own. In fact, it’s exponentially harder.
If you consider every other thing you might own. A car, a house, a share of stock, gold, diamonds, property rights, intellectual property rights, movie rights, music rights. Anything imaginable, they would all be easier by orders and orders of magnitude to seize. So, digital property in the form of a set of private keys is by far the apex property of the human race. In terms of ethics, I want to make one more point. It’s like I might say to you, “Lex, I think Bitcoin is the best, most secure, most durable crypto asset network in the world, it’s going to go up forever and there’s nothing better in the world.
I might be right, I might be wrong, but the point is because it’s property, it’s ethical for me to say that. If I were to turn around and say, “Lex, I think the same about MicroStrategy stock, MSTR, that’s a security. Okay? If I’m wrong about that, I have civil liability or other liability because I could go to a board meeting tomorrow and I could actually propose we issue a million more shares of MicroStrategy stock. Whereas the thing that makes Bitcoin ethical for me to even promote is the knowledge that I can’t change it. If I knew that I could make it 42 million instead of 21 million and I had the button back here, then I have a different degree of ethical responsibility.
Now, I could tell you your life will be better if you buy Bitcoin, and it might not. You might go buy Bitcoin, you might lose the keys and be bankrupt and your life ends and your life is not better because you bought Bitcoin. But it wouldn’t be my ethical liability any more than if I were to say, “Lex, I think you ought to get a farm. I think you should be a farmer. I think a chicken in every pot, you should get a horse. I think you’d be better.” I mean, they’re all opinions expressed about property, which may or may not be right that you may or may not agree with. But in a legal sense, if we read the law, if we understand securities law… And I would say most people in the crypto industry, they didn’t take companies public and so they’re not really focused on the securities law. They don’t even know the securities law.
If you focus on the securities law, that would say you just can’t legally sell this stuff to the general public or promote it without a full set of continuing disclosures signed off on by a regulator. So, there’s a fairly bright line there with regard to securities, but when you get to the secondary issue, it’s how do you actually build a world based on digital property if public figures can’t embrace it or endorse it? You see? So, you’re not going to build a better world based upon Twitter stock, if that’s your idea of property, because Twitter stock is a security, and Twitter stock is never going to be a non-sovereign bearer instrument in Russia, right? Or in China, it’s not even legal in China.
It’s not a global permissionless, open thing. It will never be trusted by the rest of the world, and legally it’s impractical. But would you really want to put a hundred trillion dollars worth of economic value on Twitter stock if there’s a board of directors and a CEO that could just get up and take half of it tomorrow? The answer is no. So, if you want to build a better world based on digital energy, you need to start with constructing a digital property, and I’m using property here-
Lex Fridman
Open, permissionless, [inaudible 01:54:30]-
Open, permissionless, [inaudible 01:54:30]-
Michael Saylor
In the legal sense, but I would also go to the next step and say property is low frequency money. So, if I give you a million dollars and you want to hold it for a decade, you might go buy a house with it and the house is low frequency money. You converted the million dollars of economic energy into a structure called a house. Maybe after a decade you might convert it back into energy. You might sell the house for currency and it’ll be worth more or less depending upon the monetary climate you sell in.
In the legal sense, but I would also go to the next step and say property is low frequency money. So, if I give you a million dollars and you want to hold it for a decade, you might go buy a house with it and the house is low frequency money. You converted the million dollars of economic energy into a structure called a house. Maybe after a decade you might convert it back into energy. You might sell the house for currency and it’ll be worth more or less depending upon the monetary climate you sell in.
Lex Fridman
The frequency means what here? How quickly it changes state>
The frequency means what here? How quickly it changes state>
Michael Saylor
How quickly does something vibrate? If I transfer $10 from me to you for a drink, and then you turn around and you buy another, right? We’re vibrating on a frequency of every few hours. The energy is changing hands, but it’s not likely that you sell and buy houses every few hours. The frequency of a transaction in real estate is every 10 years, every five years. It’s much lower frequency transaction. And so when you think about what’s going on here, you have extremely low frequency things, which we’ll call property. Then you have mid-frequency things. I’m going to call them money or currency. And then you have high frequency, and that’s energy.
How quickly does something vibrate? If I transfer $10 from me to you for a drink, and then you turn around and you buy another, right? We’re vibrating on a frequency of every few hours. The energy is changing hands, but it’s not likely that you sell and buy houses every few hours. The frequency of a transaction in real estate is every 10 years, every five years. It’s much lower frequency transaction. And so when you think about what’s going on here, you have extremely low frequency things, which we’ll call property. Then you have mid-frequency things. I’m going to call them money or currency. And then you have high frequency, and that’s energy.
And that’s why I use the illustration of you got the building, you got the light and you got the sound, and they’re all just energy moving at different frequencies. Now, Bitcoin is magical and it is truly the innovation. It’s like a singularity because it represents the first time in the history of the human race that we managed to create a digital property, properly understood. It’s easy to create something digital, right? Every coupon and every scan on Fortnite and Roblox and Apple TV credits and all these things, they’re all digital something, but they’re securities, right?
Shares of stock are securities. Whenever anybody transfers, when you transfer money on PayPal or Apple Pay, you’re transferring in essence, a security or an IOU. So, transferring a bearer instrument with final settlement in the internet domain or in cyberspace, that’s a critical thing. And anybody in the crypto world can do that. All the cryptos can do that. But what they can’t do, what 99% of them fail to do is be property. They’re securities.
Lex Fridman
Well, there’s a line there I’d like to explore a little further. For example, what about when you… Like Coinbase or something like that, when there’s an exchange that you buy Bitcoin in, you start to move away from this kind of, some of the aspects that you said makes up a property, which is this noncensorable and permissionless and open. So, in order to achieve the convenience, the effectiveness of the transfer of energy, you have to leverage some of these [inaudible 01:58:10] that remove the aspects of property. So, maybe you can comment on that.
Well, there’s a line there I’d like to explore a little further. For example, what about when you… Like Coinbase or something like that, when there’s an exchange that you buy Bitcoin in, you start to move away from this kind of, some of the aspects that you said makes up a property, which is this noncensorable and permissionless and open. So, in order to achieve the convenience, the effectiveness of the transfer of energy, you have to leverage some of these [inaudible 01:58:10] that remove the aspects of property. So, maybe you can comment on that.
Layers of Bitcoin
Michael Saylor
Let me give you a good model for that. If you think about the layer one of Bitcoin, the layer one is the property settlement layer, and we’re going to do 350,000 transactions or less a day, a hundred million transactions a year is the bandwidth on the layer one. And it would be an ideal layer of one to move a billion dollars from point A to point B with a massive security. The role of the layer one is two things. One thing is I want to move a large sum of money through space with security. I can move any amount of Bitcoin in a matter of minutes for dollars on layer one.
Let me give you a good model for that. If you think about the layer one of Bitcoin, the layer one is the property settlement layer, and we’re going to do 350,000 transactions or less a day, a hundred million transactions a year is the bandwidth on the layer one. And it would be an ideal layer of one to move a billion dollars from point A to point B with a massive security. The role of the layer one is two things. One thing is I want to move a large sum of money through space with security. I can move any amount of Bitcoin in a matter of minutes for dollars on layer one.
The second important feature of the layer one is I need the money to last forever. I need the money indestructible, immortal. So, the bigger trick is not to move a billion dollars from here to Tokyo. The big trick is to move a billion dollars from here to the year 2140. And that’s what we want to solve with layer one. And the best real metaphor in New York City would be the granite or the schist. What you want is a city block of a bedrock. And how long has it been there? Millions of years it’s been there. And how fast do you want it to move? You don’t. In fact, the single thing that’s most important is that it not deflect. If it deflects a foot in a hundred years, it’s too much. If it deflects an inch in a hundred years, you might not want that.
So, the layer one of Bitcoin is a foundation upon which you put weight. How much weight can you put on it? You put a trillion, 10 trillion, a hundred trillion, a quadrillion. How much weight’s on the bedrock in Manhattan, right? Think about hundred story buildings. So, the real key there is the foundational asset needs to be there at all. The fact that you can create a hundred trillion dollars layer one that would stand for a hundred years, that is the revolutionary breakthrough first time.
And the fact that it’s ethical, right? It’s ethical and it’s common property, global, permissionless. Extremely unlikely that would happen. People tried 50 times before and they all failed. They tried 15,000 times after, and they’ve all been… They’ve all generally failed. 98% have failed and a couple have been less successful. But for the most part, that’s an extraordinary thing. Now-
Lex Fridman
Just really quickly pause, just to define some terms. If maybe people don’t know, layer one that Michael’s referring to is in general what people know of as the Bitcoin technology originally defined. Which is there’s blockchain, there’s a consensus mechanism of proof of work, low number of transactions, but you can move a very large amount of money.
Just really quickly pause, just to define some terms. If maybe people don’t know, layer one that Michael’s referring to is in general what people know of as the Bitcoin technology originally defined. Which is there’s blockchain, there’s a consensus mechanism of proof of work, low number of transactions, but you can move a very large amount of money.
The reason he’s using the term layer one is now that there’s a lot of ideas of layer two technologies that built on top of this bedrock that allow you to move a much larger number of transactions, sort of higher frequency, I don’t know how would terminology want to use, but basically be able to use now something that is based on Bitcoin to then buy stuff, be a consumer, to transfer money, to use it as currency. Just to define some terms.
Michael Saylor
Yeah. So, the layer one is the foundation for the entire cyber economy, and we don’t want it to move fast. What we want is immortality. Immortal, incorruptible, indestructible. That’s what you want, integrity from the layer one. Now there’s layer two and layer three and layer two I would define as an open, permissionless, non-custodial protocol that uses the underlying layer one token as its gas fee.
Yeah. So, the layer one is the foundation for the entire cyber economy, and we don’t want it to move fast. What we want is immortality. Immortal, incorruptible, indestructible. That’s what you want, integrity from the layer one. Now there’s layer two and layer three and layer two I would define as an open, permissionless, non-custodial protocol that uses the underlying layer one token as its gas fee.
Lex Fridman
So, what’s custodial mean and how does the different markets… Like is Lightning network-
So, what’s custodial mean and how does the different markets… Like is Lightning network-
Michael Saylor
So, Lightning Network would be an example of a layer two, non-custodial. The Lightning Network will sit on top of layer one. It’ll sit on top of Bitcoin and it solves… What you want to do is solve the problem of, “It’s well and fine. I don’t want to move a billion dollars every day. What I want to move is $5 a billion times a day.” So, if I want to move $5 a billion times a day, I don’t really need to put the entire trillion dollars of assets at risk every time I move $5. All I really need to do is put a hundred thousand dollars in a channel or a million dollars in a channel, and then I do 10 million transactions where I have a million dollars at risk.
So, Lightning Network would be an example of a layer two, non-custodial. The Lightning Network will sit on top of layer one. It’ll sit on top of Bitcoin and it solves… What you want to do is solve the problem of, “It’s well and fine. I don’t want to move a billion dollars every day. What I want to move is $5 a billion times a day.” So, if I want to move $5 a billion times a day, I don’t really need to put the entire trillion dollars of assets at risk every time I move $5. All I really need to do is put a hundred thousand dollars in a channel or a million dollars in a channel, and then I do 10 million transactions where I have a million dollars at risk.
And of course, it’s kind of simple. If I lower my security requirement by a factor of a million, I can probably move the stuff a million times faster. And that’s how Lightning works. It’s non-custodial because there’s no corporation or custodian or counterparty you’re trusting, right? There’s the risk of moving through the channel. But Lightning is an example of how I go from 350,000 transactions a day to 350 million transactions a day. So, on that layer two, you could move the Bitcoin in seconds for fractions of pennies.
Now, that’s not the end all, be all because the truth is there are a lot of open protocols. Lightning probably won’t be the only one. There’s an open market competition of other permissionless, open source protocols to do this work. And in theory, any other crypto network that was deemed to be property, deemed to be non-security, you could also think of as potentially a layer two to Bitcoin. There’s a debate about are there any and what are they? And we could leave that for a later time.
Lex Fridman
But why do you think of them as layer two as opposed to contending for layer one?
But why do you think of them as layer two as opposed to contending for layer one?
Michael Saylor
Yeah, actually, if they’re using their own token, then they are a layer one. If you create an open protocol that uses the Bitcoin token as the fee, then it becomes a layer two. Bitcoin itself incentivizes its own transactions with its own token, and that’s what makes it layer one.
Yeah, actually, if they’re using their own token, then they are a layer one. If you create an open protocol that uses the Bitcoin token as the fee, then it becomes a layer two. Bitcoin itself incentivizes its own transactions with its own token, and that’s what makes it layer one.
Lex Fridman
Okay, what’s layer three then?
Okay, what’s layer three then?
Michael Saylor
Layer three is a custodial layer. So, if you want to move Bitcoin in milliseconds for free, you move it through Binance or Coinbase or Cash App. This is a very straightforward thing. I mean, it seems pretty obvious when you think about it that there are going to be hundreds of thousands of layer threes. There may be dozens of layer twos. I mean, Lightning is a one, but it’s not the only one, anybody can invent something. And we can have this debate about custodial, non-custodial.
Layer three is a custodial layer. So, if you want to move Bitcoin in milliseconds for free, you move it through Binance or Coinbase or Cash App. This is a very straightforward thing. I mean, it seems pretty obvious when you think about it that there are going to be hundreds of thousands of layer threes. There may be dozens of layer twos. I mean, Lightning is a one, but it’s not the only one, anybody can invent something. And we can have this debate about custodial, non-custodial.
Lex Fridman
Don’t you think there’s a monopolization possibilities at layer three. You mentioned Binance, Coinbase. What if they start to dominate and basically everybody’s using them practically speaking, and then it becomes too costly to memorize the private key in your brain or like a cold storage of layer one technology.
Don’t you think there’s a monopolization possibilities at layer three. You mentioned Binance, Coinbase. What if they start to dominate and basically everybody’s using them practically speaking, and then it becomes too costly to memorize the private key in your brain or like a cold storage of layer one technology.
Michael Saylor
The idealists fear the layer threes because they think… And especially they detest, they would detest a bit… There’s almost like a layer four, by the way, if you want to. A layer four would be, I’ve got Bitcoin on an application, but I can’t withdraw it. So, I’ve got an application that’s backed by Bitcoin, but the Bitcoin is sealed. It’s a proprietary example, and I’ll give you an example of that. That would be like Grayscale. If I own a share of GBTC, so I own a security. Actually, you could own MSTR. If you own a security or you own a product that has Bitcoin embedded in it, you get the benefits of Bitcoin, but you don’t have the ability to withdraw the asset.
The idealists fear the layer threes because they think… And especially they detest, they would detest a bit… There’s almost like a layer four, by the way, if you want to. A layer four would be, I’ve got Bitcoin on an application, but I can’t withdraw it. So, I’ve got an application that’s backed by Bitcoin, but the Bitcoin is sealed. It’s a proprietary example, and I’ll give you an example of that. That would be like Grayscale. If I own a share of GBTC, so I own a security. Actually, you could own MSTR. If you own a security or you own a product that has Bitcoin embedded in it, you get the benefits of Bitcoin, but you don’t have the ability to withdraw the asset.
Lex Fridman
To get on the security market at layer four? Am I understanding this correctly?
To get on the security market at layer four? Am I understanding this correctly?
Michael Saylor
I don’t know if I would say… Not all securities are layer four, but anything that’s a proprietary product with Bitcoin embedded in it where you can’t withdraw the Bitcoin is another application of Bitcoin. If you think about different ways you can use this, you can either stay completely on the layer one and use the base chain for your transactions, or you can limit yourself to layer one and layer two, Lightening. And the purist would say, “We stay there, get your Bitcoin off the exchange.” But you could also go to the layer three.
I don’t know if I would say… Not all securities are layer four, but anything that’s a proprietary product with Bitcoin embedded in it where you can’t withdraw the Bitcoin is another application of Bitcoin. If you think about different ways you can use this, you can either stay completely on the layer one and use the base chain for your transactions, or you can limit yourself to layer one and layer two, Lightening. And the purist would say, “We stay there, get your Bitcoin off the exchange.” But you could also go to the layer three.
When Cash App supported Bitcoin, they made it very easy to buy it, and then they gave you the ability to withdraw. When PayPal or I think Robinhood let you buy it, they wouldn’t let you withdraw it and it was a big community uproar and people, they want these layer threes to make it possible to withdraw the Bitcoins. You can take it to your own private wallet and get it off the exchange. I think the answer to the question of, “Well, is corruption possible?” Is corruption is possible in all human institutions and all governments everywhere. The difference between digital property and physical property is when you own a building in Los Angeles and the city politics turn against you, you can’t move the building.
And when you own a share of a security that’s like a US traded security and you wish to move to some other country, you can’t take the security with you either. And when you own a bunch of gold and you try to get through the airport, they might not let you take it. So, Bitcoin is advantageous versus all those because you actually do have the option to withdraw your asset from the exchange. If you had Bitcoin with Fidelity and you had shares of stock with Fidelity, and if you had bonds and sovereign debt with Fidelity, and if you own some mutual funds and some other random limited partnerships with Fidelity, none of those things can be removed from the custodian. But the Bitcoin, you can take off the exchange, you can remove from the custodian.
Lex Fridman
It’s still possible though-
It’s still possible though-
Michael Saylor
There’s a deterrent.
There’s a deterrent.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Michael Saylor
There’s a deterrent. That’s an anti-corrupting element. And the phrase is, “An armed society is a polite society,” right? Because you have the optionality to withdraw all your assets from the crypto exchange, you can enforce fairness. And at the point where you disagree with their policies, you can within an hour move your assets to another counterparty or take personal custody of those assets and you don’t have that option with most other forms of property. You don’t have as much optionality with any other form of property on earth. And so what makes digital property distinct is the fact that it has the most optionality for custody.
There’s a deterrent. That’s an anti-corrupting element. And the phrase is, “An armed society is a polite society,” right? Because you have the optionality to withdraw all your assets from the crypto exchange, you can enforce fairness. And at the point where you disagree with their policies, you can within an hour move your assets to another counterparty or take personal custody of those assets and you don’t have that option with most other forms of property. You don’t have as much optionality with any other form of property on earth. And so what makes digital property distinct is the fact that it has the most optionality for custody.
Now, coming back to this digital energy issue, the real key point is the energy moves in milliseconds for free on layer threes. It moves in seconds or less than seconds on layer twos, it moves in minutes on the layer one. And I don’t think it makes any sense to even think about trying to solve all three problems on the layer one because it’s impossible to achieve the security and the incorruptibility and immortality if you try to build that much speed and that functionality and performance.
In fact, if you come back to the New York model, you really wanted a block of granite, a building and a company. That’s what makes the economy right? If I said to you, “You’re going to build a building, but you can only have one company in it for the life of the building,” it would be very fragile, very brittle. What company a hundred years ago is still relevant today? You want all three layers because they all oscillate at different frequencies. And there’s a tendency to think, “Well, it’s got to be this L1 or that L1.” Not really. And sometimes people think, “Well, I don’t really want any L3.”
But companies, it’s not an even/or. Companies are better than crypto asset networks at certain things. If you want complexity, you want to implement complexity or you want to implement compliance or customer service. Companies do these things well. We know you couldn’t decentralize Apple or Netflix or even YouTube. The performance wouldn’t be there and the subtlety wouldn’t be there. And you can’t really legally decentralize certain forms of banking and insurance because they would become illegal in the political jurisdiction they’re in.
So, unless you’re a crypto anarchist and you believe in no companies and no nation states, which is just not very practical, not anytime soon. Once you allow that nation states will continue and companies have a role, then the layered architecture follows, and the free market determines who wins. For example, there are layer threes that let you acquire Bitcoin and withdraw Bitcoin. There are other applications that let you acquire but not withdraw it, and they don’t get the same market share, but they might give you some other advantage. There are certain layer threes, like Jack Dorsey’s Cash App where they just incorporated Lightning, an implementation of it.
Lex Fridman
Into Cash App?
Into Cash App?
Michael Saylor
So, that makes it advantageous versus an application that doesn’t incorporate Lightning. If you think about the big picture, the big picture is 8 billion people with mobile phones served by a hundred million companies doing billions of transactions an hour. And the companies are settling with each other on the base layer in blocks of 80 million at a time. And then the companies are trading with the consumers in proprietary layers, like layer three. And then on occasion, people are shuffling assets across custodians with Lightning layer two, because you don’t want to pay $5 to move $50. You want to pay a 20th of a penny to move $50.
So, that makes it advantageous versus an application that doesn’t incorporate Lightning. If you think about the big picture, the big picture is 8 billion people with mobile phones served by a hundred million companies doing billions of transactions an hour. And the companies are settling with each other on the base layer in blocks of 80 million at a time. And then the companies are trading with the consumers in proprietary layers, like layer three. And then on occasion, people are shuffling assets across custodians with Lightning layer two, because you don’t want to pay $5 to move $50. You want to pay a 20th of a penny to move $50.
And so all of these things create efficiency in the economy. And Lex, if you want to consider how much efficiency. If you gave me a billion dollars in 20 years, I couldn’t find a way to trade with another company or a counterparty in Nigeria. No amount of money. Give me %10 billion, I couldn’t do it because you get shut down at the banking level. You can’t link up a bank in Nigeria with a bank in the US. You get shut down at this credit card level because they don’t have the credit card, so they won’t clear. You get shut down at the compliance FCPA level because you wouldn’t be able to implement a system that interfaced with somebody else’s system if it’s not in the right political jurisdiction.
On the other hand, three entrepreneurs in Nigeria on the weekend could create a website that would trade in this Lightning economy using open protocols without asking anybody’s permission. So, you’re talking about something that’s like a million times cheaper, less friction, and faster to do it if you want to get money to move.
Bitcoin’s role during wartime
Lex Fridman
What do you think that looks like? So, now there’s a war going on in Ukraine. There’s other wars, Yemen, going on throughout the world. In this most difficult of states that a nation can be in, which is at war, civil war, or war with other nations, what’s the role of Bitcoin in this context?
What do you think that looks like? So, now there’s a war going on in Ukraine. There’s other wars, Yemen, going on throughout the world. In this most difficult of states that a nation can be in, which is at war, civil war, or war with other nations, what’s the role of Bitcoin in this context?
Michael Saylor
I mean, Bitcoin is a universal trust protocol. A universal energy protocol, if you will. English is one. What I see is a bunch of fragmentation of applications-
I mean, Bitcoin is a universal trust protocol. A universal energy protocol, if you will. English is one. What I see is a bunch of fragmentation of applications-
Michael Saylor
Okay. What I see is a bunch of fragmentation of applications. For example, the Russian payment app is not going to work in Ukraine.
Okay. What I see is a bunch of fragmentation of applications. For example, the Russian payment app is not going to work in Ukraine.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Michael Saylor
The Ukraine payment app is not going to work in Russia. The US payment apps won’t work either of those places as far as I know. So in Argentina, their payment app may not work in certain parts of Africa. So what you have is different local economies where people spin up their own applications compliant with their own local laws or in war zones, not compliant, but just spinning up.
The Ukraine payment app is not going to work in Russia. The US payment apps won’t work either of those places as far as I know. So in Argentina, their payment app may not work in certain parts of Africa. So what you have is different local economies where people spin up their own applications compliant with their own local laws or in war zones, not compliant, but just spinning up.
Lex Fridman
So how do you build something that’s not compliant? What is the revolutionary act here when you don’t agree with the government or what you want to free yourself from the… So here’s the thing. When a nation is really at war, especially if it’s an authoritarian regime, it’s going to try to control the pipe, lock everything down, the spread of information. How do you break through that? Do you do the thing that you mentioned, which is you have to build another app essentially that allows you to flow of money outside the legal constraints placed on you by the government? So basically break the law, is that possible?
So how do you build something that’s not compliant? What is the revolutionary act here when you don’t agree with the government or what you want to free yourself from the… So here’s the thing. When a nation is really at war, especially if it’s an authoritarian regime, it’s going to try to control the pipe, lock everything down, the spread of information. How do you break through that? Do you do the thing that you mentioned, which is you have to build another app essentially that allows you to flow of money outside the legal constraints placed on you by the government? So basically break the law, is that possible?
Michael Saylor
Metaphorically speaking, if you want to break out of the constraints of your culture, you learn to speak English. For example, it’s not illegal to speak English. Even if it is, does it matter? But English works everywhere in the world if you can speak it, and then you can tap into a global commerce and intelligence network. So Bitcoin is a language. So you learn to speak Bitcoin or you learn to speak Lightning, and then you tap into that network in whatever manner you can.
Metaphorically speaking, if you want to break out of the constraints of your culture, you learn to speak English. For example, it’s not illegal to speak English. Even if it is, does it matter? But English works everywhere in the world if you can speak it, and then you can tap into a global commerce and intelligence network. So Bitcoin is a language. So you learn to speak Bitcoin or you learn to speak Lightning, and then you tap into that network in whatever manner you can.
Lex Fridman
But the problem is it’s still very difficult to move Bitcoin around in Russia and Ukraine now during war. And there was a sense to me that the cryptocurrency in general could be the savior for helping people. There’s millions of refugees that are moving all around. It’s very difficult to move money around in that space to help people.
But the problem is it’s still very difficult to move Bitcoin around in Russia and Ukraine now during war. And there was a sense to me that the cryptocurrency in general could be the savior for helping people. There’s millions of refugees that are moving all around. It’s very difficult to move money around in that space to help people.
Michael Saylor
I think we’re very early. We’re very embryonic here. If you look at the-
I think we’re very early. We’re very embryonic here. If you look at the-
Lex Fridman
Who’s we? Sorry, we as a human civilization or we operating in the cryptocurrency space?
Who’s we? Sorry, we as a human civilization or we operating in the cryptocurrency space?
Michael Saylor
I think the entire crypto economy is very embryonic and the human race’s adoption of it is embryonic. We’re like 1%, 2% down that adoption curve. If you take Lightning for example, the first real commercial applications of Lightning are just in the last 12 months. So we’re like year one. We might be approaching year two of commercial Lightning adoption. And if you look at Lightning adoption, Lightning’s not built into Coinbase, is not built into Binance, is not built into FTX. Cash App just implemented the first implementation, but not all the features are built into it. There’s a few dozen, a dozen Lightning wallets circulating out there.
I think the entire crypto economy is very embryonic and the human race’s adoption of it is embryonic. We’re like 1%, 2% down that adoption curve. If you take Lightning for example, the first real commercial applications of Lightning are just in the last 12 months. So we’re like year one. We might be approaching year two of commercial Lightning adoption. And if you look at Lightning adoption, Lightning’s not built into Coinbase, is not built into Binance, is not built into FTX. Cash App just implemented the first implementation, but not all the features are built into it. There’s a few dozen, a dozen Lightning wallets circulating out there.
So I think that we’re probably going to be 36 months of software development. At the point that every Android phone and every iPhone has a Bitcoin wallet or a crypto wallet in it of sorts, that’s a big deal. If Apple embraced Lightning, that’s a big deal.
Lex Fridman
So the adoption is the thing… In a war zone adoption, the people who struggle the most in war are people who weren’t doing that great before the war started. They don’t have the technological sophistication.
So the adoption is the thing… In a war zone adoption, the people who struggle the most in war are people who weren’t doing that great before the war started. They don’t have the technological sophistication.
Jack Dorsey
Michael Saylor
Sure.
Sure.
Lex Fridman
The hackers and all those kinds of people will find a way. It’s just regular people who are just struggling to make day by day living. And so if the adoption permeates the entire culture, then you can start to move money around in the digital space. If you can psychoanalyze Jack Dorsey for a second. So he’s one of the early adopters or he’s one of the people pushing the early adoption, this layer three, so inside Cash App. What do you make of the man of this decision as a business owner, as somebody playing in the space? Why did he do it and what does that mean for others at the scale that might be doing the same? So incorporating Lightning networking, incorporating Bitcoin into their products.
The hackers and all those kinds of people will find a way. It’s just regular people who are just struggling to make day by day living. And so if the adoption permeates the entire culture, then you can start to move money around in the digital space. If you can psychoanalyze Jack Dorsey for a second. So he’s one of the early adopters or he’s one of the people pushing the early adoption, this layer three, so inside Cash App. What do you make of the man of this decision as a business owner, as somebody playing in the space? Why did he do it and what does that mean for others at the scale that might be doing the same? So incorporating Lightning networking, incorporating Bitcoin into their products.
Michael Saylor
I think he’s been pretty clear about this. He feels that Bitcoin is an instrument of economic empowerment for billions of people that are unbanked and have no property rights in the world. If you want to give an incorruptible bank to 8,000,000,000 people on the planet, that’s the same as asking the question, “How do you give a full education through PhD to 8,000,000,000 people on the planet?” And the answer is a digital version of the 20th century thing running on a mobile phone, and Bitcoin is a bank in cyberspace, is run by incorruptible software and it’s for everybody on earth.
I think he’s been pretty clear about this. He feels that Bitcoin is an instrument of economic empowerment for billions of people that are unbanked and have no property rights in the world. If you want to give an incorruptible bank to 8,000,000,000 people on the planet, that’s the same as asking the question, “How do you give a full education through PhD to 8,000,000,000 people on the planet?” And the answer is a digital version of the 20th century thing running on a mobile phone, and Bitcoin is a bank in cyberspace, is run by incorruptible software and it’s for everybody on earth.
So I think when Jack looks at it, he’s very sensitive to the plight of everybody in Africa. If you look at Africans, you’re going to give them banks. You’re not going to put a bank branch on every corner. That’s an obscene waste of energy. You’re not going to run copper wires across the continent. That’s an obscene waste of energy. You’re not going to give them gold. So how are you going to provide people with a decent life?
The metaphor I think is relevant here, the biological metaphor, Lex, is type one diabetic. If you’re a type one diabetic, you can’t form fat. And if you can’t form fat, then you can’t store excess energy. Fat is the ultimate organic battery, and if you’ve got 30 pounds of it, you can go 60 days without eating. But if you can’t generate insulin, you can’t form fat cells. And if you can’t form fat cells and store energy, then you can eat yourself to death. You will eat and you will die. You’ll starve to death. So the lack of property rights is like being a type one diabetic. And so if you look at most people everywhere in the world, they don’t have property rights, they don’t have effective bank and their currency is broken.
What are the two things that in theory would serve as the equivalent of an organic battery or an economic battery to civilization? It would be I have a currency which holds its value and I can store it in a bank. So a risk-free currency derivative. I pay you your money, you take your life savings, you put it in a bank, you save up for your retirement, you live happily ever after. That’s the American dream, right? That’s the idyllic situation. The real situation is there are no banks. You can’t get a bank account. So I give you your pay in currency and then I double the supply and I give it to my cousin, or I give it to whatever cause I want or I use it to buy weapons. And then you find a loaf of bread costs triple next month as what it costs and your life savings is worthless.
And so in that environment, everybody’s ripped back to Stone Age barter. And the problem with that, even Stone Age barter, is you’re going to carry your life savings on your back. And what happens when the guy with a machine gun points it at your head and just takes your life savings? So I think from Jack’s point of view, he thinks that, this is maybe too strong, but these are my words, life is hopeless for a lot of people and Bitcoin is hope because it gives everyone an engineered monetary asset that’s a bearer instrument and it gives them a bank on their mobile phone and they don’t have to trust their government or another counterparty with their life force.
So there’s a secondary thing I think he’s interested in, which is… The first thing is the human rights issue. And the second thing would be the friction to trade cross borders is so great. You like AI. So I’ll give you a beautiful notion. Maybe one day there’ll be an artificially intelligent creature in cyberspace that is self-sufficient and rich.
Lex Fridman
It would have sovereignty. You mean-
It would have sovereignty. You mean-
Michael Saylor
Can a robot own money or property? How about can a Tesla car? Can I actually put enough money in a car for it to drive itself and maintain itself forever? Or can I create an artificially intelligent creature in cyberspace that is endowed such that it would live 1,000 years and continue to do its job? We have a word for that in the real world. It’s institution, Harvard, Cambridge, Stanford. Right? There are institutions with endowments that go on in perpetuity, but what if I wanted to perpetuate a software program?
Can a robot own money or property? How about can a Tesla car? Can I actually put enough money in a car for it to drive itself and maintain itself forever? Or can I create an artificially intelligent creature in cyberspace that is endowed such that it would live 1,000 years and continue to do its job? We have a word for that in the real world. It’s institution, Harvard, Cambridge, Stanford. Right? There are institutions with endowments that go on in perpetuity, but what if I wanted to perpetuate a software program?
And with something like digital property with Bitcoin and Lightning, you could do it. And on the other hand, with banks and credit cards, you couldn’t ever. So you can create things that are beautiful and lasting and what’s the difference in speed? Well, so I can either trade with everybody in the world at the speed of light, friction-free in 24 hours writing a Python script, or I can spend $100 billion to trade with a few million people in the world after it takes them six months of application. The impedance is like a 10,000,000 to one difference, and the metaphors are literally like launching something in orbit versus almost orbit or vacuum sealing something. Does it last forever and does it orbit forever or does it go up and come down and burn up? Right? And I think Jack is interested in putting freedom in orbit, right?
Lex Fridman
Putting freedom-
Putting freedom-
Michael Saylor
Putting freedom in orbit. And he said it many times, he said, “The internet needs a native currency.” Right? And no political construct or security can be a native currency. You need a property and you need a property that can be moved 1,000,000 times a second. Can you oscillate it at 10 kilohertz or 100 kilohertz? And the answer is only if it’s a pure digital construct, permissionless and open. And so I think that he’s enthusiastic as the technologist and he’s enthusiastic as the humanitarian. And what he’s doing is to support both those areas. He’s supporting the Bitcoin and the Lightning protocol by building them into his products, but he’s also building the applications which you need at the Cash App level in order to commercialize and deliver the functionality and the compliance necessary, and they’re related.
Putting freedom in orbit. And he said it many times, he said, “The internet needs a native currency.” Right? And no political construct or security can be a native currency. You need a property and you need a property that can be moved 1,000,000 times a second. Can you oscillate it at 10 kilohertz or 100 kilohertz? And the answer is only if it’s a pure digital construct, permissionless and open. And so I think that he’s enthusiastic as the technologist and he’s enthusiastic as the humanitarian. And what he’s doing is to support both those areas. He’s supporting the Bitcoin and the Lightning protocol by building them into his products, but he’s also building the applications which you need at the Cash App level in order to commercialize and deliver the functionality and the compliance necessary, and they’re related.
Lex Fridman
And I should also say he’s just a fascinating person for a random reason that I couldn’t even explain if I tried. I met him a few days ago and gave him a great big hug in the middle of nowhere. There was no explanation. He just appeared. That’s a fascinating human. His relationship with art, with the world, with human suffering, with technology is fascinating. I don’t know what his path looks like, but it’s interesting that people like that exist. And in part, I’m saddened that he no longer is involved with Twitter directly as a CEO because I was hoping something inside Twitter would also integrate some of these ideas of what you’re calling digital energy to see how social networks, something I’m really interested in and passionate about, could be transformed.
And I should also say he’s just a fascinating person for a random reason that I couldn’t even explain if I tried. I met him a few days ago and gave him a great big hug in the middle of nowhere. There was no explanation. He just appeared. That’s a fascinating human. His relationship with art, with the world, with human suffering, with technology is fascinating. I don’t know what his path looks like, but it’s interesting that people like that exist. And in part, I’m saddened that he no longer is involved with Twitter directly as a CEO because I was hoping something inside Twitter would also integrate some of these ideas of what you’re calling digital energy to see how social networks, something I’m really interested in and passionate about, could be transformed.
Let me ask you, just for educational purposes. Can you please explain to me what Web3 and the beef between Jack and Mark Andreessen is exactly? Did you see what happened? Sorry to have you analyze Twitter like it’s Shakespeare, but can you please explain to me why there was any drama over this topic?
Michael Saylor
First of all, Web3 is a term that’s used to refer to the part of the economy that’s token finance. So if I’m launching an application and my idea is to create a token along with the application and issue the token to the community so as to finance the application and build support for it, I think that that’s the most common interpretation of Web3. There are other interpretations too, so I’m just going to refer to that one. And I think the beef in a nutshell, not articulated, but I’ll articulate it, is whether or not you should focus all your energy creating applications on top of an ethical digital property like Bitcoin or whether you should attempt to create a competitor to it, which generally would be deemed as a security by the Bitcoin community?
First of all, Web3 is a term that’s used to refer to the part of the economy that’s token finance. So if I’m launching an application and my idea is to create a token along with the application and issue the token to the community so as to finance the application and build support for it, I think that that’s the most common interpretation of Web3. There are other interpretations too, so I’m just going to refer to that one. And I think the beef in a nutshell, not articulated, but I’ll articulate it, is whether or not you should focus all your energy creating applications on top of an ethical digital property like Bitcoin or whether you should attempt to create a competitor to it, which generally would be deemed as a security by the Bitcoin community?
So I’m going to put on my Bitcoin hat here. Right? If it’s driven by a venture capitalist, well, it’s a security. If there’s a CEO and a CTO, it’s a security. All these projects, they’re companies. Foundations are companies. Right? If you call them a project or a foundation, it doesn’t make it not a security. They’re all in essence, collections of individuals that are issuing equity in the form of a token. And if there’s a pre-mine, an IPO, an ICO, a foundation or any kind of protocol where there’s a group of engineers that have influence over it, then to a securities lawyer or to most Bitcoiners, and definitely to anybody that’s steeped in securities law, you look at it and say, “Well, that passes the Howey test.” It looks like a security. It should be sold to the public pursuant to disclosures and regulations, and you’re just ducking the IPO process. Right?
And so now we get back to the ethical issue. Well, the ethical issue is if you’re trading it as a commodity and representing it as a commodity, while truthfully it’s a security, then it’s a violation of ethics rules and it’s probably illegal.
Lex Fridman
Well, you keep leaning on this. Let me push back on that part. Maybe you can educate me, but you keep leaning on this line of securities law, with all due respect to lawyers, as if that line somehow defines what is and isn’t ethical. I think there’s a lot of correlation as you’ve discussed, but I’d like to leave the line aside. If the law calls something a security, it doesn’t mean in my eyes that it is unethical. There could be some technicalities and lawyers and people play games with this kind of stuff all the time. But I take your bigger point that if there’s a CEO, if there’s a project lead that’s fundamentally… Well, that to you is fundamentally different than the structure of Bitcoin.
Well, you keep leaning on this. Let me push back on that part. Maybe you can educate me, but you keep leaning on this line of securities law, with all due respect to lawyers, as if that line somehow defines what is and isn’t ethical. I think there’s a lot of correlation as you’ve discussed, but I’d like to leave the line aside. If the law calls something a security, it doesn’t mean in my eyes that it is unethical. There could be some technicalities and lawyers and people play games with this kind of stuff all the time. But I take your bigger point that if there’s a CEO, if there’s a project lead that’s fundamentally… Well, that to you is fundamentally different than the structure of Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor
It’s not that creating securities is unethical. I created security. I took a company public. Right? That’s not the unethical part. It’s completely ethical to create securities. Block is a security, all companies are securities. The unethical part is to represent it as property when it’s a security and to promote it or trade it as such.
It’s not that creating securities is unethical. I created security. I took a company public. Right? That’s not the unethical part. It’s completely ethical to create securities. Block is a security, all companies are securities. The unethical part is to represent it as property when it’s a security and to promote it or trade it as such.
Lex Fridman
This whole promotion, that’s also a technical thing because what counts as not as promotion is a legal thing and you get in trouble for all these things, but that’s the game that lawyers play. There’s an ethical thing here, which is like what’s right to promote a not? To me, propaganda is unethical, but it’s usually not illegal.
This whole promotion, that’s also a technical thing because what counts as not as promotion is a legal thing and you get in trouble for all these things, but that’s the game that lawyers play. There’s an ethical thing here, which is like what’s right to promote a not? To me, propaganda is unethical, but it’s usually not illegal.
Michael Saylor
You roll clock back 20 years, right? All the boiler room pump and dump schemes were all about someone pitching a penny stock-
You roll clock back 20 years, right? All the boiler room pump and dump schemes were all about someone pitching a penny stock-
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Michael Saylor
Selling swampland in Florida. And if you roll the clock forward 20 years, and I create my own company and I represent it as the same thing, and I don’t make the disclosures, you’re just one step removed from the boiler room scheme, and that’s what’s distasteful about it. There are ways to sell securities to the public, but there are expectations. Maybe we could forget about whether the security laws are ethical or not, right? I will leave that alone. We’ll just start with the biblical definition of ethics.
Selling swampland in Florida. And if you roll the clock forward 20 years, and I create my own company and I represent it as the same thing, and I don’t make the disclosures, you’re just one step removed from the boiler room scheme, and that’s what’s distasteful about it. There are ways to sell securities to the public, but there are expectations. Maybe we could forget about whether the security laws are ethical or not, right? I will leave that alone. We’ll just start with the biblical definition of ethics.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Michael Saylor
Don’t lie, cheat or steal. So if I’m going to sell something to you, I need to fully disclose what I’m selling to you, and that’s a matter of great debate right now. So I think that that’s part of the debate, but the other part of the debate is whether or not we need more than one token, we need at least one. Right?
Don’t lie, cheat or steal. So if I’m going to sell something to you, I need to fully disclose what I’m selling to you, and that’s a matter of great debate right now. So I think that that’s part of the debate, but the other part of the debate is whether or not we need more than one token, we need at least one. Right?
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Michael Saylor
We need at least one digital property.
We need at least one digital property.
Lex Fridman
One is better than zero.
One is better than zero.
Michael Saylor
Because zero means there is no digital economy.
Because zero means there is no digital economy.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Michael Saylor
And by the way, the conventional view of maximalists is they think there’s only one and everything else isn’t. That’s not the point I’m going to make. I would say we know there is at least one digital property and that is Bitcoin. If you can create a truly decentralized, non-custodial bearer instrument that is not under the control of any organization that is fairly distributed, then you might create another or multiple and there may be others out there. But I think that the frustration of a lot of people in the Bitcoin community, and I share this with Jack, is we could create $100 trillion of value in the real world simply by building applications on top of Bitcoin as a foundation. And so continually trying to reinvent the wheel and create competitive things is a massive waste of time and it’s diversion of human creativity. It’s like we have an ethical good thing, and now we’re going to try to create a third or a fourth one. Why?
And by the way, the conventional view of maximalists is they think there’s only one and everything else isn’t. That’s not the point I’m going to make. I would say we know there is at least one digital property and that is Bitcoin. If you can create a truly decentralized, non-custodial bearer instrument that is not under the control of any organization that is fairly distributed, then you might create another or multiple and there may be others out there. But I think that the frustration of a lot of people in the Bitcoin community, and I share this with Jack, is we could create $100 trillion of value in the real world simply by building applications on top of Bitcoin as a foundation. And so continually trying to reinvent the wheel and create competitive things is a massive waste of time and it’s diversion of human creativity. It’s like we have an ethical good thing, and now we’re going to try to create a third or a fourth one. Why?
Bitcoin conflict of interest
Lex Fridman
Well, let’s talk about it. So first of all, I’m with you, but let me ask you this interesting question because we talked about properties and securities. Let’s talk about conflict of interest. You said you could advertise… You have a popular Twitter account. It’s hilarious and insightful. You do promote Bitcoin in a sense. I don’t know if you would say that, but do you think there’s a conflict of interest in anyone who owns Bitcoin, promoting Bitcoin? Is it the same as you promoting farming?
Well, let’s talk about it. So first of all, I’m with you, but let me ask you this interesting question because we talked about properties and securities. Let’s talk about conflict of interest. You said you could advertise… You have a popular Twitter account. It’s hilarious and insightful. You do promote Bitcoin in a sense. I don’t know if you would say that, but do you think there’s a conflict of interest in anyone who owns Bitcoin, promoting Bitcoin? Is it the same as you promoting farming?
Michael Saylor
I would say no. There’s an interest. I think that you can promote a property or an idea to the extent that you don’t control it. I think that the point at which you start to have a conflict of interest is when you’re promoting a proprietary product or proprietary security. A security in general is proprietary asset. So for example, if you look at my Twitter, you’ll find that I make lots of statements about Bitcoin. You won’t ever see me making a statement that say micro strategy stock will go it forever. I’m not promoting a security MSTR because at the end of the day, MSTR is a security. It is proprietary. I have proprietary interest in it. I have a disproportionate amount of control and influence on the direction. Whereas-
I would say no. There’s an interest. I think that you can promote a property or an idea to the extent that you don’t control it. I think that the point at which you start to have a conflict of interest is when you’re promoting a proprietary product or proprietary security. A security in general is proprietary asset. So for example, if you look at my Twitter, you’ll find that I make lots of statements about Bitcoin. You won’t ever see me making a statement that say micro strategy stock will go it forever. I’m not promoting a security MSTR because at the end of the day, MSTR is a security. It is proprietary. I have proprietary interest in it. I have a disproportionate amount of control and influence on the direction. Whereas-
Lex Fridman
The control is the problem. The control is the problem because you have interest in both. If Bitcoin is as successful as we’re talking about, you very possibly can become the richest human on earth given how much you own in Bitcoin. The wealthiest, not the richest. I don’t know what those words mean.
The control is the problem. The control is the problem because you have interest in both. If Bitcoin is as successful as we’re talking about, you very possibly can become the richest human on earth given how much you own in Bitcoin. The wealthiest, not the richest. I don’t know what those words mean.
Michael Saylor
I would benefit economically.
I would benefit economically.
Lex Fridman
You would benefit economically.
You would benefit economically.
Michael Saylor
That’s true.
That’s true.
Lex Fridman
So the reason that’s not conflict of interest is because the word property that Bitcoin is an idea and Bitcoin is open-
So the reason that’s not conflict of interest is because the word property that Bitcoin is an idea and Bitcoin is open-
Michael Saylor
It’s because I don’t own it. I don’t control it. In essence, the ethical line here is could I print myself 10,000,000 more Bitcoin or not? Right?
It’s because I don’t own it. I don’t control it. In essence, the ethical line here is could I print myself 10,000,000 more Bitcoin or not? Right?
Lex Fridman
Or can anyone? Right? It’s not just you. It’s can anyone? Because can you promote somebody else’s? Yes, I guess you can. Can you promote Apple when you have no stake?
Or can anyone? Right? It’s not just you. It’s can anyone? Because can you promote somebody else’s? Yes, I guess you can. Can you promote Apple when you have no stake?
Michael Saylor
You could have a Twitter account where you promote oil or you promote camping or you promote family values or promote a carnivore diet or promote the Iron Man, right?
You could have a Twitter account where you promote oil or you promote camping or you promote family values or promote a carnivore diet or promote the Iron Man, right?
Lex Fridman
But you’re not going to get wealthier if you promote camping because you can’t own a stake in… You own a lot of Bitcoin. What is that? Don’t you own the stake in the idea of Bitcoin?
But you’re not going to get wealthier if you promote camping because you can’t own a stake in… You own a lot of Bitcoin. What is that? Don’t you own the stake in the idea of Bitcoin?
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I would grant you that.
Yeah, I would grant you that.
Lex Fridman
But the lack of control is the fundamental ethical line that you don’t have… All you are is you’re a fan of the idea. You believe in the idea and the power of idea.
But the lack of control is the fundamental ethical line that you don’t have… All you are is you’re a fan of the idea. You believe in the idea and the power of idea.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I think-
Yeah, I think-
Lex Fridman
You can’t take that idea away from others.
You can’t take that idea away from others.
Michael Saylor
Let me give you some maybe easier examples. If you were the Head of the Marine Corps and someone came to you and said, “I created Marinecoin, and the twist on Marinecoin is I want you to tell every Marine that they’ll get an extra Marinecoin when they get their next stripe. And then I’m going to let you buy Marinecoin now, and then after you buy Marinecoin, I want you to promote it to them.” At some point, if you start to have a disproportional influence on it, or if you’re in a conversation with people with disproportionate influence becomes conflict of interest and it would make you profoundly uncomfortable, I think, if the Head of the Marine Corps started promoting anything that looked like a security.
Let me give you some maybe easier examples. If you were the Head of the Marine Corps and someone came to you and said, “I created Marinecoin, and the twist on Marinecoin is I want you to tell every Marine that they’ll get an extra Marinecoin when they get their next stripe. And then I’m going to let you buy Marinecoin now, and then after you buy Marinecoin, I want you to promote it to them.” At some point, if you start to have a disproportional influence on it, or if you’re in a conversation with people with disproportionate influence becomes conflict of interest and it would make you profoundly uncomfortable, I think, if the Head of the Marine Corps started promoting anything that looked like a security.
Now, if the Head of the Marine Corps started promoting canoeing, you might think he’s wacky. Maybe that’s a waste of time and a distraction. But to the extent that canoeing is not a security, not a problem, unless you… Ultimately, the issue of decentralization is really a critical one.
Lex Fridman
So not having a head. Can Bitcoin be replicated? So all the things that you’re saying that make it a property, can that be replicated? Have any other-
So not having a head. Can Bitcoin be replicated? So all the things that you’re saying that make it a property, can that be replicated? Have any other-
Michael Saylor
I think it’s possible to create other crypto properties.
I think it’s possible to create other crypto properties.
Lex Fridman
Does the having a head of a project, a thing that limits its ability to be a property if you try to replicate a project? Is that the fundamental flaw?
Does the having a head of a project, a thing that limits its ability to be a property if you try to replicate a project? Is that the fundamental flaw?
Michael Saylor
No. Look, I think the real fundamental issue is you just never want it to change. If you really want something decentralized, you want a genetic template that substantially is not going to change for 1,000 years. So I think Satoshi said it at one point. He said, “The nature of the software is such that by version 0.1, its genetic code was set.” If there was any development team that’s continually changing it on a routine basis, it becomes harder and harder to maintain its decentralization because now there’s the issue of who is influencing the changes?
No. Look, I think the real fundamental issue is you just never want it to change. If you really want something decentralized, you want a genetic template that substantially is not going to change for 1,000 years. So I think Satoshi said it at one point. He said, “The nature of the software is such that by version 0.1, its genetic code was set.” If there was any development team that’s continually changing it on a routine basis, it becomes harder and harder to maintain its decentralization because now there’s the issue of who is influencing the changes?
So what you really want is a very, very simple idea. The simplest idea, I’m just going to keep track of who owns 21,000,000 parts of energy? And when someone proposes big functional upgrades, you don’t really want that development to go on to base layer. You want that development to go on to layer threes because now Cash App has a proprietary set of functionality and it’s a security. And if you’re going to promote the use of this thing, you’re not going to promote the layer three security because that’s an edge to a given entity and you’re trusting the counterparty. You’re going to promote the layer one or at most the layer two.
Satoshi Nakamoto
Lex Fridman
Okay, so one of the fascinating things about Bitcoin, and sorry to romanticize certain notions, but Satoshi Nakamoto that the founder is anonymous. Maybe you can speak to whether that’s useful, but also I just like the psychology of that to imagine that there’s a human being that was able to create something special and walk away. Though first, are you Satoshi Nakamoto?
Okay, so one of the fascinating things about Bitcoin, and sorry to romanticize certain notions, but Satoshi Nakamoto that the founder is anonymous. Maybe you can speak to whether that’s useful, but also I just like the psychology of that to imagine that there’s a human being that was able to create something special and walk away. Though first, are you Satoshi Nakamoto?
Michael Saylor
I’m certain I’m not. No, actually I think the providence is really important, and if I were to look at the highlighted points, I think having a founder that was anonymous or stood anonymous is important. I think the founder disappearing is also important. I think that the fact that the Satoshi coins never moved is also important. I think the lack of an initial coin offering is also important. I think the lack of a corporate sponsor is important. I think the fact that it traded for 15 months with no commercial value was also important. I think that the simplicity of the protocol is very important. I think that the outcome of the block size wars is very important and all of those things add up to common property. They’re all indicia, indicators of a digital property as opposed to security.
I’m certain I’m not. No, actually I think the providence is really important, and if I were to look at the highlighted points, I think having a founder that was anonymous or stood anonymous is important. I think the founder disappearing is also important. I think that the fact that the Satoshi coins never moved is also important. I think the lack of an initial coin offering is also important. I think the lack of a corporate sponsor is important. I think the fact that it traded for 15 months with no commercial value was also important. I think that the simplicity of the protocol is very important. I think that the outcome of the block size wars is very important and all of those things add up to common property. They’re all indicia, indicators of a digital property as opposed to security.
If there was a Satoshi sitting around, sitting on top of $50 billion worth of Bitcoin, I don’t think it would cripple Bitcoin as property, but I think it would undermine its digital property. And if I wanted to undermine a crypto asset network, I would do the opposite of all those things. I would launch one myself. I would sell 25% or 50% to the general public. I would pre-mine some stuff or early mine it and I would keep an influence on it. Those are all the opposite of what you would do in order to create common property. And so I see the entire story as Satoshi giving a gift of digital property to the human race and disappearing.
Lex Fridman
Do you think it was one person? Do you have ideas of who it could be?
Do you think it was one person? Do you have ideas of who it could be?
Michael Saylor
I don’t care to speculate.
I don’t care to speculate.
Lex Fridman
But do you think it was one person?
But do you think it was one person?
Michael Saylor
I think it was one person, maybe in conjunction with a bunch of others. It might’ve been a group of people that were working together, but certainly there’s a Satoshi.
I think it was one person, maybe in conjunction with a bunch of others. It might’ve been a group of people that were working together, but certainly there’s a Satoshi.
Lex Fridman
It’s just so fascinating to me that one person could be so brave and thoughtful. Or do you think a lot of his accent, like the block size wars, the decision to make a block a certain size, all the things you mentioned led up to the characteristics that make Bitcoin property? Do you think that’s an accident or was it deeply thought through? This is almost like a history of science question.
It’s just so fascinating to me that one person could be so brave and thoughtful. Or do you think a lot of his accent, like the block size wars, the decision to make a block a certain size, all the things you mentioned led up to the characteristics that make Bitcoin property? Do you think that’s an accident or was it deeply thought through? This is almost like a history of science question.
Michael Saylor
They tried 40 of them, right? I think there’s a history of attempting to create something like this, and it was tried many, many times and they failed for different reasons. And I think that it’s like Prometheus tried to start a fire 47 times and maybe the 48 time it sparked, and that’s how I see this. This is the first one that sparked, and it sets a roadmap for us. And I think if you’re looking for any one word that characterize, it’s fair. The whole point of the network is it’s a fair launch, a fair distribution. I have Bitcoin, but I bought it. In fact, at this point, we’ve paid $4 billion of real cash to buy it. If I was sitting on the same position and I had it for free or I bought it for a nickel, a coin, or a penny of coin, the question is, was it fair? And that’s a very hard question to answer, right? Did you acquire the Bitcoin that you own fairly? And if you roll the clock back, you could have bought it for a nickel or a dime, but that was when it was 1,000,000 times more likely to fail, right? When the risk was greater, the cost was lower, and then over time, the risk became lower and the cost became greater.
They tried 40 of them, right? I think there’s a history of attempting to create something like this, and it was tried many, many times and they failed for different reasons. And I think that it’s like Prometheus tried to start a fire 47 times and maybe the 48 time it sparked, and that’s how I see this. This is the first one that sparked, and it sets a roadmap for us. And I think if you’re looking for any one word that characterize, it’s fair. The whole point of the network is it’s a fair launch, a fair distribution. I have Bitcoin, but I bought it. In fact, at this point, we’ve paid $4 billion of real cash to buy it. If I was sitting on the same position and I had it for free or I bought it for a nickel, a coin, or a penny of coin, the question is, was it fair? And that’s a very hard question to answer, right? Did you acquire the Bitcoin that you own fairly? And if you roll the clock back, you could have bought it for a nickel or a dime, but that was when it was 1,000,000 times more likely to fail, right? When the risk was greater, the cost was lower, and then over time, the risk became lower and the cost became greater.
And the real critical thing was to allow the marketplace absent any powerful, interested actor, right? If Satoshi had held 1,000,000 coins and then stayed engaged for 10 more years, tweaking things in the background, there’d still be that question. But what we’ve got is really a beautiful thing. We’ve got a chain reaction in cyberspace or an ideology spreading virally in the world that has seasoned in a fair, ethical fashion. Sometimes it’s a very violent, brutal fashion with all the volatility, and there’s been a lot of sound and fury along the way.
Volatility
Lex Fridman
How do you psychoanalyze? How do you deal from a financial, from a human perspective with the volatility? You mentioned you could have gotten it for a nickel and the risk was great. Where’s the risk today? What’s your sense?
How do you psychoanalyze? How do you deal from a financial, from a human perspective with the volatility? You mentioned you could have gotten it for a nickel and the risk was great. Where’s the risk today? What’s your sense?
Michael Saylor
We’re 13 years into this entire activity. I think the risk has never been lower. If you look at all the risks, the risks in the early years are is the engineering protocol proper? One megabyte, block size, 10 minute clock frequency, cryptography is first, will it be hacked or will it crash? 730,000 blocks and it hasn’t crashed. Will it be hacked? Hasn’t been hacked. It’s a Lindy thing, right? You wait 13 years to see if it’ll be hacked. But on the other hand, with $1 billion, it’s not as interesting a target as it is with $ 100 billion. And when it gets to be worth $1 trillion, then it’s a bigger target.
We’re 13 years into this entire activity. I think the risk has never been lower. If you look at all the risks, the risks in the early years are is the engineering protocol proper? One megabyte, block size, 10 minute clock frequency, cryptography is first, will it be hacked or will it crash? 730,000 blocks and it hasn’t crashed. Will it be hacked? Hasn’t been hacked. It’s a Lindy thing, right? You wait 13 years to see if it’ll be hacked. But on the other hand, with $1 billion, it’s not as interesting a target as it is with $ 100 billion. And when it gets to be worth $1 trillion, then it’s a bigger target.
So the risk has been bleeding off over time as the network monetized. I think the second question is, will it be banned? You couldn’t know. It literally could have been banned many times early on. In fact, 2013, I tweeted on the subject. I thought it would be banned. I made a very infamous tweet.
Lex Fridman
Infamous tweet, yeah.
Infamous tweet, yeah.
Michael Saylor
I thought it was going to be banned. In 2014, the IRS designated it as…
I thought it was going to be banned. In 2014, the IRS designated it as…
Michael Saylor
In 2014, the IRS designated it as property and gave it property tax treatment. They could have given it a tax treatment where you had to pay tax on the unrealized capital gains every year, and it probably would’ve crushed it to death. Right? So it could have been in any number of places banned by a government, but in fact, it was legitimized as property. And then the question is, would it be copied? Will it be something better than that? And it was copied 15,000 times. And you know the story of all those, and they either diverged to be something totally different and not comparable, or someone trying to copy a non-sovereign bearer instrument store of value found that their networks crashed to be 1% of what Bitcoin is. So now we’re sitting at a point where all those risks are out of the way.
In 2014, the IRS designated it as property and gave it property tax treatment. They could have given it a tax treatment where you had to pay tax on the unrealized capital gains every year, and it probably would’ve crushed it to death. Right? So it could have been in any number of places banned by a government, but in fact, it was legitimized as property. And then the question is, would it be copied? Will it be something better than that? And it was copied 15,000 times. And you know the story of all those, and they either diverged to be something totally different and not comparable, or someone trying to copy a non-sovereign bearer instrument store of value found that their networks crashed to be 1% of what Bitcoin is. So now we’re sitting at a point where all those risks are out of the way.
I would say that year one of institutional adoption is it started August 2020. That’s when MicroStrategy bought $250 million worth of Bitcoin and we put that out on the wire. We were the first publicly traded company to actually buy Bitcoin. I don’t think you could have found a $5 million purchase from a public company before we did that. So that was like a gun going off. And then in the next 12 months, Tesla bought Bitcoin, Square bought Bitcoin. I’d say now we’re in year two of institutional adoption. Should be 24 publicly traded Bitcoin miners by the end of this quarter. So you’re looking at 36 publicly traded companies, and you’ve got at least in the range of $50 billion of Bitcoin on the balance sheet of publicly traded companies and hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap of Bitcoin-exposed companies. So I would say the asset, decade one was entrepreneurial experimental. Decade two is a rotation from entrepreneurs to institutions and it’s becoming institutionalized. So maybe decade one, you go from zero to a trillion and in decade two you go from 1 trillion to 100 trillion.
Lex Fridman
What about government adoption? You said institutional adoption, are governments important in this, maybe making it some governments incorporating it as a currency into their banks, all that kind of stuff? Is that important? And if it is, when will it happen?
What about government adoption? You said institutional adoption, are governments important in this, maybe making it some governments incorporating it as a currency into their banks, all that kind of stuff? Is that important? And if it is, when will it happen?
Michael Saylor
It’s not essential for the success of the asset class, but I think it’s inevitable in various degrees over time. But the most likely thing to happen next is large acquisitions by institutional investors of Bitcoin as a digital gold, where they’re just swapping out gold for digital gold and thinking of it like that. The government entities most likely to be involved with that would be sovereign wealth funds. If you look at all the sovereign wealth funds that are holding big tech stock equities, the Swiss, the Norwegians, the Middle Easterners, if you can hold big tech then holding digital gold would be not far removed from that. That’s a non-controversial adoption.
It’s not essential for the success of the asset class, but I think it’s inevitable in various degrees over time. But the most likely thing to happen next is large acquisitions by institutional investors of Bitcoin as a digital gold, where they’re just swapping out gold for digital gold and thinking of it like that. The government entities most likely to be involved with that would be sovereign wealth funds. If you look at all the sovereign wealth funds that are holding big tech stock equities, the Swiss, the Norwegians, the Middle Easterners, if you can hold big tech then holding digital gold would be not far removed from that. That’s a non-controversial adoption.
I think there are opportunities for governments that are much more profound. If a government started to adopt Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve asset, that’s much bigger than just an asset investment that’s 100X bigger. And you could imagine, that’s like a trillion dollar opportunity. Like any government that wanted to adopt it as a Treasury Reserve asset would probably generate a trillion or more of value. And then the thing that people think about is, “Well, will oil ever be priced in Bitcoin or any other export commodity?” I think there’s $1.8 trillion or more of export commodities in the world, and right now they’re all priced in dollars. I think that this is a colorful thing, but not really that relevant. You could sell all that stuff in dollars. The relevant decision that any institution makes, whether they’re a nonprofit, a university, a corporation, or a government, is what’s your Treasury Reserve asset? And if your Treasury Reserve asset is the peso, and if the peso is losing 20% or 30% of its value a year, then your balance sheet is collapsing within five years.
And if the Treasury Reserve asset is dollars in currency derivatives and US Treasuries, then you’re getting your seven… Right now it’s probably 15% or more monetary inflation. We’re running double the historic average. You could argue triple. Somewhere between double and triple depending upon what your metric is. So, do I think it’ll happen? I think that they’re conservative, but they have to be shocked, and I think there is a shock. The late Russian sanctions are a big shock that when the West sees $300 billion worth of Russian gold in currency derivatives, I think you got the famous quote by Putin that we have to rethink our Treasury strategies. And that pushes everybody toward a commodity strategy, “What commodities do I want to hold?” I think that’s got a lot of people thinking. I think it’s got the Chinese thinking. Everybody wants to be the reserve currency, so if I buy $50 billion worth of dollars every year, then I buy 500 billion over a decade and I probably pay $250 billion of inflation costs on the backs of my citizens in a decade.
Lex Fridman
So inflation could be one of the sources of shock. You wonder if there is a switch to Bitcoin whether it would be a bang or a whimper. What is the nature of the shock of the transition?
So inflation could be one of the sources of shock. You wonder if there is a switch to Bitcoin whether it would be a bang or a whimper. What is the nature of the shock of the transition?
Michael Saylor
I think that the year 2022 is pretty catalytic for digital assets in general and for Bitcoin in particular. The Canadian trucker crisis I think educated hundreds of millions of people and made them start questioning their property rights and their banks. I think the Ukraine war was a second shock, but I think that the Russian sanctions was a third shock. And I think hyperinflation in the rest of the world is a fourth shock. And then persistent inflation in the US is a fifth shock.
I think that the year 2022 is pretty catalytic for digital assets in general and for Bitcoin in particular. The Canadian trucker crisis I think educated hundreds of millions of people and made them start questioning their property rights and their banks. I think the Ukraine war was a second shock, but I think that the Russian sanctions was a third shock. And I think hyperinflation in the rest of the world is a fourth shock. And then persistent inflation in the US is a fifth shock.
So I think it’s a perfect storm. And if you put all these events together, what do they signify? They signify the rational conclusion for any person thinking about this is, “I’m not sure if I can trust my property. I don’t know if I have property rights. I don’t know if I can trust the bank. And if I’m politically at odds with the leader of my own country, I’m going to lose my property. And if I’m politically at odds with the owner of another country, I’m still going to lose my property. And when push comes to shove, the banks will freeze my assets and seize them.”
And I think that that is playing out in front of everybody in the world such that your logical response would be, “I’m going to convert my weak currency to a strong currency. Like, I’ll convert my peso and lira to the dollar. I’m going to convert my weak property to strong property. I’m going to sell my building Downtown Moscow, and I’d rather own a building in New York City. I’d rather own in a powerful nation than be stuck with a building in Nigeria or a building in Argentina or whatever. So I’m going to sell my weak properties to buy strong properties. I’m going to convert my physical assets to digital assets. I’d rather own a digital building than own a physical building, because if I had a billion dollar building in Moscow, who can I rent that to? But if I have a billion dollar digital building, I can rent it to anybody in any city in the world, anybody with money, and the maintenance cost is almost nothing, and I can hold it for 100 years.” So it’s an indestructible building.
And then finally, I want to move from having my assets in a bank with a counterparty to self-custody assets. It is not just Ukraine, but this is like the story in Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, South America. You don’t really want to be sitting with $10 million in a bank in Istanbul. The bank’s going to freeze your money, convert it to lira, devalue the lira, and then feed it back to you over 17 years, right?
Lex Fridman
So self-custody assets would be layer one Bitcoin?
So self-custody assets would be layer one Bitcoin?
Michael Saylor
Self-custody assets is like if I got my own hardware wallet and I’ve either got… Your highest form of self-custody would be Bitcoin on your own hardware wallet or Bitcoin on your own self-custody. And the other thing people think about is, “How do I get crypto dollars tether some stable coin?” If you had a choice, would you rather have your money in a bank in a war zone in dollars or have your money in a stable coin on your mobile phone in dollars? I mean, you would take the latter risk rather than the former risk.
Self-custody assets is like if I got my own hardware wallet and I’ve either got… Your highest form of self-custody would be Bitcoin on your own hardware wallet or Bitcoin on your own self-custody. And the other thing people think about is, “How do I get crypto dollars tether some stable coin?” If you had a choice, would you rather have your money in a bank in a war zone in dollars or have your money in a stable coin on your mobile phone in dollars? I mean, you would take the latter risk rather than the former risk.
Lex Fridman
In a war zone, definitely, yeah.
In a war zone, definitely, yeah.
Michael Saylor
And you can see that happening. We’ve gone from 5 billion in stable coins to 200 billion in the last 24 months. So I do think there’s massive demand for crypto dollars in the form of a US dollar asset. Everybody in the world would say, “Yeah, I want that.” Well, unless you’re just an extreme patriot. But most people in the world would say, “I want that.” And then a lesser group of people would say, “I think I want to be able to carry my property in the palm of my hand so I have self-custody of it.”
And you can see that happening. We’ve gone from 5 billion in stable coins to 200 billion in the last 24 months. So I do think there’s massive demand for crypto dollars in the form of a US dollar asset. Everybody in the world would say, “Yeah, I want that.” Well, unless you’re just an extreme patriot. But most people in the world would say, “I want that.” And then a lesser group of people would say, “I think I want to be able to carry my property in the palm of my hand so I have self-custody of it.”
Bitcoin price
Lex Fridman
So Bitcoin price has gone through quite a roller coaster. What do you think is the high point it’s going to hit?
So Bitcoin price has gone through quite a roller coaster. What do you think is the high point it’s going to hit?
Michael Saylor
I think it’ll go forever. I mean, I think the Bitcoin, it’s going to climb in a serpentine fashion. It’s going to advance and come back and it’s going to keep climbing. I think that the volatility attracts all the capital into the marketplace. And so the volatility makes it the most interesting thing in the financial universe. It also generates massive yield and massive returns for traders, and that attracts capital. We’re talking about the difference between 5% return and 500% return.
I think it’ll go forever. I mean, I think the Bitcoin, it’s going to climb in a serpentine fashion. It’s going to advance and come back and it’s going to keep climbing. I think that the volatility attracts all the capital into the marketplace. And so the volatility makes it the most interesting thing in the financial universe. It also generates massive yield and massive returns for traders, and that attracts capital. We’re talking about the difference between 5% return and 500% return.
So the fast money is attracted by the volatility. The volatility has been decreasing year by year by year. I think that it’s stabilizing. I don’t think we’ll see as much volatility in the future as we have in the past. I think that if we look at Bitcoin and model it as digital gold, the market cap goes to between 10 and 20 trillion. But remember, gold is defective property. Gold is dead money. You have a billion dollars of gold that sits in a vault for a decade, it’s very hard to mortgage the gold. It’s also very hard to rent the gold. You can’t loan the gold. No one’s going to create a business with your gold.
So gold doesn’t generate much of a yield. So for that reason, most people wouldn’t store a billion dollars for a decade in gold. They would buy a billion dollars of commercial real estate property. The reason why is because I can rent it and generate a yield on it that’s in excess of the maintenance cost. So if you consider digital property, that’s 100 to $200 trillion addressable market. So I would think it goes from 10 trillion to 100 trillion as people start to think of it as digital property.
Lex Fridman
What does that mean in terms of price per coin?
What does that mean in terms of price per coin?
Michael Saylor
At 500,000, that’s a $10 trillion asset. At 5 million, that’s 100 trillion dollars asset.
At 500,000, that’s a $10 trillion asset. At 5 million, that’s 100 trillion dollars asset.
Lex Fridman
So you think it crosses a million it can go even higher?
So you think it crosses a million it can go even higher?
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I think it keeps going up forever. I mean, there’s no reason we couldn’t go to 10 million a coin. Because digital property isn’t the highest form, right? Gold was that low frequency money. Property is a mid-frequency money, but when I start to program it faster, it starts to look like digital energy. Then it doesn’t just replace property, then you’re starting to replace bonds. It’s 100 trillion in bonds, there’s 50 to 100 trillion in other currency derivatives. And these are all conventional use cases. I think that there’s 350 trillion to $500 trillion worth of currency, currency derivatives in the world. When I say that, I mean things that are valued based upon fiat cash flows. Any commercial real estate, any bond, any sovereign debt, any currency itself, any derivatives to those things, they’re all derivatives and they’re all defective. And they’re all defective because of this persistent seven to 14% lapse which we call inflation or monetary expansion.
Yeah, I think it keeps going up forever. I mean, there’s no reason we couldn’t go to 10 million a coin. Because digital property isn’t the highest form, right? Gold was that low frequency money. Property is a mid-frequency money, but when I start to program it faster, it starts to look like digital energy. Then it doesn’t just replace property, then you’re starting to replace bonds. It’s 100 trillion in bonds, there’s 50 to 100 trillion in other currency derivatives. And these are all conventional use cases. I think that there’s 350 trillion to $500 trillion worth of currency, currency derivatives in the world. When I say that, I mean things that are valued based upon fiat cash flows. Any commercial real estate, any bond, any sovereign debt, any currency itself, any derivatives to those things, they’re all derivatives and they’re all defective. And they’re all defective because of this persistent seven to 14% lapse which we call inflation or monetary expansion.
Can we switch subjects to talk about the energy side of it-
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Michael Saylor
… like the innovative piece?
… like the innovative piece?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
Let’s just start with this idea that I’ve got a hotel worth a billion dollars with 1,000 rooms. When it becomes a dematerialized hotel-
Let’s just start with this idea that I’ve got a hotel worth a billion dollars with 1,000 rooms. When it becomes a dematerialized hotel-
Lex Fridman
I love that word so much, by the way, dematerialized hotel.
I love that word so much, by the way, dematerialized hotel.
Michael Saylor
We’re a cross from the Fontainebleau here. Imagine the Fontainebleau is dematerialized. The problem with the physical hotel is I got to hire real people moving subject to the speed of sound and physics laws and Newton’s laws, and I can rent it to people in Miami Beach. But if it was a digital hotel, I could rent the room to people in Paris, London and New York every night, and I can run it with robots. And as soon as I do that, I can rent it by the room hour, and I can rent it by the room minute. And so I start to chop my hotel up into 100,000 room hours that I sell to the highest bidder anywhere in the world. And you can see all of a sudden the yield, the rent, and the income of the property is dramatically increased.
We’re a cross from the Fontainebleau here. Imagine the Fontainebleau is dematerialized. The problem with the physical hotel is I got to hire real people moving subject to the speed of sound and physics laws and Newton’s laws, and I can rent it to people in Miami Beach. But if it was a digital hotel, I could rent the room to people in Paris, London and New York every night, and I can run it with robots. And as soon as I do that, I can rent it by the room hour, and I can rent it by the room minute. And so I start to chop my hotel up into 100,000 room hours that I sell to the highest bidder anywhere in the world. And you can see all of a sudden the yield, the rent, and the income of the property is dramatically increased.
I can also see the maintenance cost of the property falls. I get on Moore’s Law and I’m operating in cyberspace. So I got rid of Newton’s laws, I got rid of all the friction and all those problems, I tapped into the benefits of cyberspace. I created a global property. I started monetizing at different frequencies. And of course, now I can mortgage it to anybody in the world. You’re not going to be able to get a mortgage on a Turkish building from someone in South Africa. You have to find someone that’s local to the culture you’re in. So when you start to move from analog property to digital property, it’s not just a little bit better, it’s a lot better. And what I just described, Lex, is like the DeFi vision. It’s the beauty of DeFi flash loans, money moving at high velocity. At some point, if the hotel is dematerialized, then what’s the difference between renting a hotel room and loaning a block of stock? I’m just finding the highest best use of the thing.
Lex Fridman
It feels like the magic really emerges though when you build a market of layer two and layer three technologies on top of that. So maybe you can correct me if I’m wrong, but for all these hotels and all these kinds of ideas, it’s always touching humans at some point and the consumers or humans, business owners and so on. So you have to create interface. You have to create services that make all of that super efficient, super fun to use, pleasant, effective, all those kinds of things. And so you have to build a whole economy on top of that.
It feels like the magic really emerges though when you build a market of layer two and layer three technologies on top of that. So maybe you can correct me if I’m wrong, but for all these hotels and all these kinds of ideas, it’s always touching humans at some point and the consumers or humans, business owners and so on. So you have to create interface. You have to create services that make all of that super efficient, super fun to use, pleasant, effective, all those kinds of things. And so you have to build a whole economy on top of that.
Michael Saylor
Yeah. I happen to think that won’t be done by the crypto industry at all. I think that’ll be done by centralized applications. I think it’ll be the citadels of the world, the high speed traders of the world, the New Yorkers. I think it’ll be Binance, FTX, and Coinbase as a layer three exchange that will give you the yield and will give you the loan and the best terms. Because ultimately, you have to jump these compliance hoops. BlockFi can give you yield, but they have to do it in a compliant way with the United States jurisdiction. So ultimately, those applications to use that digital property and either give you a loan on it or give you yield on it, are going to come from companies.
Yeah. I happen to think that won’t be done by the crypto industry at all. I think that’ll be done by centralized applications. I think it’ll be the citadels of the world, the high speed traders of the world, the New Yorkers. I think it’ll be Binance, FTX, and Coinbase as a layer three exchange that will give you the yield and will give you the loan and the best terms. Because ultimately, you have to jump these compliance hoops. BlockFi can give you yield, but they have to do it in a compliant way with the United States jurisdiction. So ultimately, those applications to use that digital property and either give you a loan on it or give you yield on it, are going to come from companies.
But the difference, the fundamental difference is it could be companies anywhere in the world. So if a company in Singapore comes up with a better offering, then the capital is going to start to flow to Singapore. I can’t send 10 city blocks of LA to Singapore to rent during a festival, but I can send 10 blocks of Bitcoin to Singapore. So you’ve got a truly global market that’s functioning in this asset, and it’s their second order asset. For example, maybe you’re an American citizen and you own 10 Bitcoin and someone in Singapore will generate 27% yield in the Bitcoin but legally you can’t send the money to them or the Bitcoin to them, it doesn’t matter. Because the fact that that exists means that someone in Hong Kong will borrow the 10 Bitcoin from somebody in New York, and then they will put on the trade in Singapore, and that will create a demand for Bitcoin, which will drive up the price of Bitcoin, which will result in an effective tax-free yield for the person in the US that’s not even in the jurisdiction.
So there’s nothing that’s going on in Singapore to drive up the price of your land in LA. But there is something going on everywhere in the world to drive up the price of property in cyberspace if there’s only one digital Manhattan. And so there’s a dynamic there which is profound because it’s global. But now let’s go to the next extreme. I’m still giving you a fairly conventional idea, which is, let’s just loan the money fast on a global network and let’s just rent the hotel room fast in cyberspace. But let’s move to maybe a more innovative idea. The first generation of internet brought a lot of productivity, but there’s also just a lot of flaws in it. For example, Twitter is full of garbage. Instagram DMs are full of garbage. Your Twitter DMs are full of garbage. YouTube is full of scams. Every 15 minutes there’s a Michael Saylor Bitcoin giveaway spun up on YouTube. My Office 365 inbox is full of garbage, millions of spam messages. I’m running four different email filters. My company spends million dollars a year to fight denial of service attacks and all sorts of other security things.
There are denial of service attacks everywhere against everybody in cyberspace all the time. It’s extreme. And we’ll all beset with hostility, right? You’ve been a victim of it in Twitter. You go on Twitter and people post stuff they would never say to your face. And then if you look, you find out that the account was created three days ago and it’s not even a real person. So we’re beset with phishing attacks and scams and spam bots and garbage. Why? The answer is because the first generation of internet was digital information, and there’s no energy. There’s no conservation of energy in cyberspace. The thing that makes the universe work is conservation of energy.
If I went to a hotel room, I’d have to post a credit card. And then if I smash the place up, there’d be economic consequences, maybe there’d be criminal consequences, there might be reputational consequences. A lamp might fall on me. But in the worst case, I can only smash up one hotel room. Now imagine I could actually write a Python script to send myself to every hotel room in the world every minute, not post a credit card, and smash them all up anonymously.
The thing that makes the universe work is friction, speed of sound, speed of light, and the fact that ultimately it’s conservative. You’re either energy or you’re matter, but once you’ve used the energy, it’s gone, and you can’t do infinite everything. That’s missing in cyberspace right now. And if you look at all of the moral hazards and all of the product defects that we have in all of these products, most of them, 99% of them, could be cured if we introduced conservation of energy into cyberspace. That’s what you can do with high-speed, digital property, high-speed Bitcoin. And by high-speed, I mean not 20 transactions a day, I mean 20,000 transactions a day. So how do you do that? Well, I let everybody on Twitter post 1,000 or 10,000 satoshis via a Lightning badge, “Give me an orange check.” If you put up 20 bucks once in your life, you could give 300 million people an orange check. Right now you don’t have a blue check, Lex. You’re a famous person, I don’t know why you don’t have a blue check. Have you ever applied for a blue check?
Twitter verification
Lex Fridman
No.
No.
Michael Saylor
There are 360,000 people on Twitter with a blue check. There are 300 million people on Twitter. So the conventional way to verify accounts is elitist, archaic.
There are 360,000 people on Twitter with a blue check. There are 300 million people on Twitter. So the conventional way to verify accounts is elitist, archaic.
Lex Fridman
How does it work? How do you get a blue check? I mean, I’ve worked-
How does it work? How do you get a blue check? I mean, I’ve worked-
Michael Saylor
You got to apply and wait six months, and you have to post three articles in the public mainstream media that illustrates you’re a person of interest.
You got to apply and wait six months, and you have to post three articles in the public mainstream media that illustrates you’re a person of interest.
Lex Fridman
Interesting.
Interesting.
Michael Saylor
Generally, they would grant them to CEOs of public companies. The whole idea is to verify that you are-
Generally, they would grant them to CEOs of public companies. The whole idea is to verify that you are-
Lex Fridman
Who you are.
Who you are.
Michael Saylor
… who you say you are. But the question is, why isn’t everybody verified? There’s a couple of Threads on that. One is some people don’t want to be doxed, they want to be anonymous. But they’re even anonymous people that should be verified, because otherwise you’re subjecting their entire following to phishing attacks and scams and hostility. But the other-
… who you say you are. But the question is, why isn’t everybody verified? There’s a couple of Threads on that. One is some people don’t want to be doxed, they want to be anonymous. But they’re even anonymous people that should be verified, because otherwise you’re subjecting their entire following to phishing attacks and scams and hostility. But the other-
Lex Fridman
What’s the orange verification, so this idea? Can you actually elaborate a little bit more? If you put up 20 bucks…
What’s the orange verification, so this idea? Can you actually elaborate a little bit more? If you put up 20 bucks…
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I think everybody on Twitter ought to be able to get an orange check if they could come up with like $10.
Yeah, I think everybody on Twitter ought to be able to get an orange check if they could come up with like $10.
Lex Fridman
What is the power of that orange check? What does that verify exactly?
What is the power of that orange check? What does that verify exactly?
Michael Saylor
You basically post a security deposit for your safe passage through cyberspace. The way it would work is, if you’ve got $10 once in your life, you can basically show that you’re creditworthy. And that’s your pledge to me that you’re going to act responsibly. So you put the 10 or the $20 into the Lightning wallet, you get an orange check. Then Twitter just gives you a setting where I can say, “The only people that could DM me are orange checks. The only people that can post on my tweets are orange checks.” So instead of locking out the public and just letting your followers comment, you lock out all the unverified. And that means people that don’t want to post $10 security deposit can’t comment.
You basically post a security deposit for your safe passage through cyberspace. The way it would work is, if you’ve got $10 once in your life, you can basically show that you’re creditworthy. And that’s your pledge to me that you’re going to act responsibly. So you put the 10 or the $20 into the Lightning wallet, you get an orange check. Then Twitter just gives you a setting where I can say, “The only people that could DM me are orange checks. The only people that can post on my tweets are orange checks.” So instead of locking out the public and just letting your followers comment, you lock out all the unverified. And that means people that don’t want to post $10 security deposit can’t comment.
Once you’ve done those two things, then you’re in a position to monetize malice. Monetize motion or malice for that matter, but let’s just say for the sake of argument you post something and 9,700 bots spin up and pitch their whatever scam. Right now you sit and you go report, report, report, report, report, report. And if you spend an hour, you get through half of them, you waste an hour of your life, and they just spin up another 97 gazillion because they’ve got a Python script spinning it up. So it’s hopeless. But on the other hand, if you report them, and they really are a bot, Twitter’s got a method to actually delete the account. They know that they’re bots. The problem is not they don’t know how to delete the account, the problem is there are no consequences when they delete the account. So if there are consequences, Twitter, they could just seize the $10 or seize the $20 because it’s a bot, it’s a malicious criminal act or whatever as a violation of the platform rules. You end up seizing $10,000, give half the money to the reporter, and half the money to the Twitter platform.
Lex Fridman
That’s a really powerful idea, but that’s adding friction akin to the kind of friction you have in the physical world. You have consequences. You have real consequences.
That’s a really powerful idea, but that’s adding friction akin to the kind of friction you have in the physical world. You have consequences. You have real consequences.
Michael Saylor
It’s putting conservation of energy.
It’s putting conservation of energy.
Lex Fridman
Conservation of energy, but-
Conservation of energy, but-
Michael Saylor
There’s no friction. There’s no nothing on this earth. I mean, you can’t walk across the room without friction. Friction is not bad. Unnecessary friction is bad. So in this particular case, you’re introducing conservation of energy, and in essence, you’re introducing the concept of consequence or truth into cyberspace. And that means if you do want to spin up 10 million fake-less Fridmans…
There’s no friction. There’s no nothing on this earth. I mean, you can’t walk across the room without friction. Friction is not bad. Unnecessary friction is bad. So in this particular case, you’re introducing conservation of energy, and in essence, you’re introducing the concept of consequence or truth into cyberspace. And that means if you do want to spin up 10 million fake-less Fridmans…
Lex Fridman
It’s going to cost-
It’s going to cost-
Michael Saylor
It’s going to cost you $100 million to spin up 10 million fake Lexes.
It’s going to cost you $100 million to spin up 10 million fake Lexes.
Lex Fridman
But the thing is, you could do that with the dollar, but your case, you’re saying that it’s more tied to physical reality when you do that with Bitcoin?
But the thing is, you could do that with the dollar, but your case, you’re saying that it’s more tied to physical reality when you do that with Bitcoin?
Michael Saylor
Yeah. Well, let’s follow up on that idea a bit more. If you did do it with the dollar, then the question is, how does six billion people deposit the dollars? Could you do it with a credit card? How do you send dollars? Well, you have to dox yourself. It’s not easy.
Yeah. Well, let’s follow up on that idea a bit more. If you did do it with the dollar, then the question is, how does six billion people deposit the dollars? Could you do it with a credit card? How do you send dollars? Well, you have to dox yourself. It’s not easy.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Michael Saylor
So you’re talking about inputting a credit card transaction, doxing yourself, and now you’ve just eliminated the two billion people that don’t have credit cards or don’t have banks. You’ve also got a problem with everybody that wants to remain anonymous. But you’ve also got this other problem, which is credit cards are expensive transactions, low frequency, slow settlement. So do you really want to pay 2.5% every time you actually show a $20 deposit? Maybe you could do a kludgy version of this for a subset of people.
So you’re talking about inputting a credit card transaction, doxing yourself, and now you’ve just eliminated the two billion people that don’t have credit cards or don’t have banks. You’ve also got a problem with everybody that wants to remain anonymous. But you’ve also got this other problem, which is credit cards are expensive transactions, low frequency, slow settlement. So do you really want to pay 2.5% every time you actually show a $20 deposit? Maybe you could do a kludgy version of this for a subset of people.
It’s 10% is good if you did it with conventional payment rails. But what you can’t do is the next idea, which is I want the orange badge to be used to give me safe passage through cyberspace tripping across every platform. So how do I solve the denial of service attacks against a website? I publish a website, you hit it with a million requests. Okay, now how do I deal with that? Well, I can lock you out and I can make it a zero trust website, and then you have to be coming at me through a trusted firewall or with a trusted credential. But that’s a pretty draconian thing. Or I could put it behind a Lightning wall. A Lightning wall would be I just challenge you, “Lex, you want to browse my website, you have to show me your 100,000 satoshis. Do you have 100,000 satoshis?”
Click. Okay. Now you click away 100 times or 1,000 times. And after 1,000 times, I’m like, “Well, now Lex, you’re getting offensive, I’m going to take a satoshi from you or 10 satoshis, a microtransaction. You want to hit me a million times? I’m taking all your satoshis and locking you out.” What you want to do is you want to go through 200 websites a day, and what you want every time you cross a domain, you need to be able to in a split second prove that you’ve got some asset. And now when you cross back, when you exit domain, you want to fetch your asset back.
So, how do I in a friction-free fashion browse through dozens or hundreds of websites, post a security deposit for safe passage, and then get it back? You couldn’t afford to pay a credit card fee each time. When you think about 2.5% as a transaction fee, it means you trade the money 40 times and it’s gone. It’s gone.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. So you can’t do this hopping around through the internet with this kind of verification that grounds you to a physical reality. It is a really, really interesting idea. Why hasn’t that been done?
Yeah. So you can’t do this hopping around through the internet with this kind of verification that grounds you to a physical reality. It is a really, really interesting idea. Why hasn’t that been done?
Michael Saylor
I think you need two things. You need an idea like a digital asset like Bitcoin, that’s a bearer instrument for final settlement. And then you need a high-speed transaction network like Lightning, where the transaction cost might be a 20th of a penny or less. And if you roll the clock back 24 months, I don’t think you had the Lightning Network in a stable point. It’s really just the past 12 months. It’s an idea you could think about this year, and I think you need to be aware of Bitcoin as something other than a scary speculative asset. So I really think we’re just at the beginning.
I think you need two things. You need an idea like a digital asset like Bitcoin, that’s a bearer instrument for final settlement. And then you need a high-speed transaction network like Lightning, where the transaction cost might be a 20th of a penny or less. And if you roll the clock back 24 months, I don’t think you had the Lightning Network in a stable point. It’s really just the past 12 months. It’s an idea you could think about this year, and I think you need to be aware of Bitcoin as something other than a scary speculative asset. So I really think we’re just at the beginning.
Second best crypto
Lex Fridman
The embryonic stage. I have to ask, Michael Saylor, you said before there’s no second best to Bitcoin. What would be the second best? Traditionally there’s Ethereum with smart contracts, Cardano with proof of stake, Polkadot with interoperability between blockchains, Dogecoin has the incredible power of the meme, privacy with Monero. I just can keep going. There’s, of course, after the block size wars the different offshoots of Bitcoin.
The embryonic stage. I have to ask, Michael Saylor, you said before there’s no second best to Bitcoin. What would be the second best? Traditionally there’s Ethereum with smart contracts, Cardano with proof of stake, Polkadot with interoperability between blockchains, Dogecoin has the incredible power of the meme, privacy with Monero. I just can keep going. There’s, of course, after the block size wars the different offshoots of Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor
I think if you decompose or segment the crypto market, you’ve got crypto property, Bitcoin is the king of that, and other Bitcoin forks that wanted to be a bearer instrument, store of value would be a property, a Bitcoin Cash or Litecoin, something like that. Then you’ve got cryptocurrencies. I don’t think Bitcoin is a currency because a currency I define in nation-state sense. A currency is a digital asset that you can transfer in a transaction without incurring a taxable obligation. So that means it has to be a stable dollar or a stable euro or a stable yen, a stable coin.
I think if you decompose or segment the crypto market, you’ve got crypto property, Bitcoin is the king of that, and other Bitcoin forks that wanted to be a bearer instrument, store of value would be a property, a Bitcoin Cash or Litecoin, something like that. Then you’ve got cryptocurrencies. I don’t think Bitcoin is a currency because a currency I define in nation-state sense. A currency is a digital asset that you can transfer in a transaction without incurring a taxable obligation. So that means it has to be a stable dollar or a stable euro or a stable yen, a stable coin.
So I think you’ve got cryptocurrencies, Tether, Circle, most famous. I think you’ve got crypto platforms, and Ethereum is the most famous of the crypto platforms, the platform with smart contract functionality, et cetera. And then I think you’ve got just crypto securities. It’s just like my favorite whatever meme coin, and I love it because I love it, and it’s attached to my game or my company or my persona or my whatever. I think if you pushed me and said, “Well, what’s the second best?” I would say the world wants two things…
Michael Saylor
And said, “Well, what’s the second best?” I would say the world wants two things. It wants crypto property as a savings account, and it wants cryptocurrency as a checking account. And that means that the most popular thing really is going to be a stablecoin dollar. And there’s maybe a fight right now, might be Tether, right? But a stable dollar, because I feel like the market opportunity… It’s not clear that there’ll be one that will win. The class of stable dollars is probably a one to $10 trillion market easily. I think that in the crypto platform space, Ethereum will compete with Solana and Binance Smart chain and the like-
And said, “Well, what’s the second best?” I would say the world wants two things. It wants crypto property as a savings account, and it wants cryptocurrency as a checking account. And that means that the most popular thing really is going to be a stablecoin dollar. And there’s maybe a fight right now, might be Tether, right? But a stable dollar, because I feel like the market opportunity… It’s not clear that there’ll be one that will win. The class of stable dollars is probably a one to $10 trillion market easily. I think that in the crypto platform space, Ethereum will compete with Solana and Binance Smart chain and the like-
Lex Fridman
Are there certain characteristics of any of them that stand out to you? Don’t you think the competition is based on a set of features? Also… So the set of features that a cryptocurrency provides, but also the community that it provides, don’t you think the community matters and the adoption, the dynamic of the adoption both across the developers and the investors?
Are there certain characteristics of any of them that stand out to you? Don’t you think the competition is based on a set of features? Also… So the set of features that a cryptocurrency provides, but also the community that it provides, don’t you think the community matters and the adoption, the dynamic of the adoption both across the developers and the investors?
Michael Saylor
If I’m looking at them, the first question is what’s the regulatory risk? How likely is it to be deemed a property versus security? And the second is what’s the competitive risk? And the third is what’s the speed and the performance? All those things lead to the question of what’s the security risk? How likely is it to crash and burn? And how stable or unstable is it? And then there’s the marketing risk. There are different teams behind each of these things and communities behind them. I think that the big cloud looming over the crypto industry is regulatory treatment of cryptocurrencies and regulatory treatment of crypto securities and crypto platforms. And I think that won’t be determined until the end of the first Biden administration. For example, there are people that would only US FDIC insured banks to issue cryptocurrencies. They want JP Morgan to issue a crypto dollar backed one-to-one.
If I’m looking at them, the first question is what’s the regulatory risk? How likely is it to be deemed a property versus security? And the second is what’s the competitive risk? And the third is what’s the speed and the performance? All those things lead to the question of what’s the security risk? How likely is it to crash and burn? And how stable or unstable is it? And then there’s the marketing risk. There are different teams behind each of these things and communities behind them. I think that the big cloud looming over the crypto industry is regulatory treatment of cryptocurrencies and regulatory treatment of crypto securities and crypto platforms. And I think that won’t be determined until the end of the first Biden administration. For example, there are people that would only US FDIC insured banks to issue cryptocurrencies. They want JP Morgan to issue a crypto dollar backed one-to-one.
But then in the US right now, we have Circle and we have other companies that are licensed entities that are backed by cash and cash equivalents, but they’re not FDIC insured banks. There’s also a debate in Congress about whether state-chartered banks should be able to issue these things. And then we have Tether and others that are outside of the US jurisdiction. They’re probably not backed by cash and cash equivalents. They’re backed by stuff, and we don’t know what stuff. And then finally you have UST and DAI, which are algorithmic stablecoins, that are even more innovative, further outside the compliance framework. So if you ask who’s going to win, the question is really, I don’t know. Will the market decide or will the regulators decide? If the regulators get out of the way and the market [inaudible 03:27:03] Well then it’s an interesting discussion.
And then I think that all bets are off if the regulators get more heavy-handed with this. And I think you could have the same discussion with crypto properties, like the DeFi exchanges and the crypto exchanges, the SEC would like to regulate the crypto exchanges, they’d like to regulate the DeFi exchanges. That means they may regulate the crypto platforms, and at what rate and in what fashion? And so I think that I could give you an opinion if it was limited to competition under the current regulatory regime. But I think that the regulations are so fast moving and it’s so uncertain that you can’t make a decision without considering the potential actions of the regulators.
Dogecoin
Lex Fridman
I hope the regulators get out of the way. Can you steel man the case that Dogecoin is, I guess the second best cryptocurrency, or if you don’t consider Bitcoin a cryptocurrency, but instead a crypto property-
I hope the regulators get out of the way. Can you steel man the case that Dogecoin is, I guess the second best cryptocurrency, or if you don’t consider Bitcoin a cryptocurrency, but instead a crypto property-
Michael Saylor
I would classify it as crypto property, because the US dollar is a currency. So unless your crypto asset is pegged algorithmically or stably to the value of the dollar, it’s not a currency, it’s a property or it’s an asset.
I would classify it as crypto property, because the US dollar is a currency. So unless your crypto asset is pegged algorithmically or stably to the value of the dollar, it’s not a currency, it’s a property or it’s an asset.
Lex Fridman
So then can you steel man the case that Dogecoin is the best cryptocurrency then? Because Bitcoin is not even in that list.
So then can you steel man the case that Dogecoin is the best cryptocurrency then? Because Bitcoin is not even in that list.
Michael Saylor
The debate is going to be whether it’s property or security, and there’s a debate whether it’s decentralized enough. So let’s assume it was decentralized. Well, it’s increasing at not quite what, 5% a year inflation rate, but it’s not 5% exponentially. It’s like plus 5 million, 5% something capped than is less… I forget the exact number. It’s an inflationary property. It’s got a lower inflation rate than the US dollar, and it’s got a much lower inflation rate than many other fiat currencies. So I think you could say that.
The debate is going to be whether it’s property or security, and there’s a debate whether it’s decentralized enough. So let’s assume it was decentralized. Well, it’s increasing at not quite what, 5% a year inflation rate, but it’s not 5% exponentially. It’s like plus 5 million, 5% something capped than is less… I forget the exact number. It’s an inflationary property. It’s got a lower inflation rate than the US dollar, and it’s got a much lower inflation rate than many other fiat currencies. So I think you could say that.
Lex Fridman
But don’t you see the power of meme, the power of ideas, the power of fun or whatever mechanism is used to captivate a community?
But don’t you see the power of meme, the power of ideas, the power of fun or whatever mechanism is used to captivate a community?
Michael Saylor
I do. But there are meme stocks. It doesn’t absolve you of your ethical and securities liabilities if you’re promoting it. I don’t have a problem with people buying a stock. It’s just… The way I divide the world is there’s investment, there’s saving, and there’s speculation, and there’s trading. So Bitcoin is an asset for saving. If you want to save money for a hundred years, you don’t really want to take on execution risk or the like. So you’re just buying something to hold forever. For you to actually endorse something as a property, if you said to me, “Mike, what should I buy for the next a hundred years?” I’d say, “Well, some amount of real estate, some amount of scarce collectibles, some amount of Bitcoin. You can run your company.” But running your company is an investment.
I do. But there are meme stocks. It doesn’t absolve you of your ethical and securities liabilities if you’re promoting it. I don’t have a problem with people buying a stock. It’s just… The way I divide the world is there’s investment, there’s saving, and there’s speculation, and there’s trading. So Bitcoin is an asset for saving. If you want to save money for a hundred years, you don’t really want to take on execution risk or the like. So you’re just buying something to hold forever. For you to actually endorse something as a property, if you said to me, “Mike, what should I buy for the next a hundred years?” I’d say, “Well, some amount of real estate, some amount of scarce collectibles, some amount of Bitcoin. You can run your company.” But running your company is an investment.
So the savings are properties. If you said, “What should I invest in?” I’d say, “Well, here’s a list of good companies, private companies. You could start your own company. That’s an investment.” If you said, “What should I trade?” Well, I’m trading as a proprietary thing. I don’t have any special insight into that. If you’re a good trader, you know you are. If you said to me, “What should you speculate in?” We talk about meme stocks and meme coins, and it sits up there, it sits right in the same space with what horse should you bet on and what sports team should you gamble on, and should you bet on black six times in a row and double down each time? It’s fun, but at the end of the day, it’s a speculation, right? You can’t build a civilization-
Lex Fridman
On speculation.
On speculation.
Michael Saylor
… on it. It’s not an institutional asset. And in fact, where I’d leave it right is Bitcoin is clearly digital property, which makes it an institutional grade investable asset for a public company, a public figure, a public investor, or anybody that’s risk-adverse. I think that the top 100 other cryptos are like venture capital investments. And if you’re a VC, and if you’re a qualified technical investor and you have a pool of capital and you can take that kind of risk, then you can parse through that and form opinions.
… on it. It’s not an institutional asset. And in fact, where I’d leave it right is Bitcoin is clearly digital property, which makes it an institutional grade investable asset for a public company, a public figure, a public investor, or anybody that’s risk-adverse. I think that the top 100 other cryptos are like venture capital investments. And if you’re a VC, and if you’re a qualified technical investor and you have a pool of capital and you can take that kind of risk, then you can parse through that and form opinions.
It’s just orders of magnitude more risky because of competition, because of ambition and because of regulation. And if you take the meme coins, it’s like when some rapper comes out with a meme coin, it’s like maybe it’ll peak when I hear about it. SHIB was created as the coin such that it had so many zeros after the decimal point that when you looked at it on the exchanges, it always showed zero, zero, zero, zero. And it wasn’t until six months after it got popular that they started expanding the display so you could see whether the price had changed.
Elon Musk
Lex Fridman
That’s speculation. Maybe you can correct me, but you’ve been critical of Elon Musk in the past in the crypto space. Where do you stand on Elon’s effect on Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general these days?
That’s speculation. Maybe you can correct me, but you’ve been critical of Elon Musk in the past in the crypto space. Where do you stand on Elon’s effect on Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general these days?
Michael Saylor
I believe that Bitcoin is a massive breakthrough for the human race that will cure half the problems in the world and generate hundreds of trillions of dollars of economic value to the civilization. And I believe that it’s in an early stage, where many people don’t understand it and they’re afraid of it, and there’s FUD, and there’s uncertainty, there’s doubt and there’s fear, and there’s a very noisy crypto world, and there’s 15,000 other cryptos that are seeking relevance. And I think most of the FUD is actually fueled by the other crypto entrepreneurs. So the environmental FUD and the other types of uncertainty that’s around Bitcoin, generally, they’re not coming from legitimate environmentalists, they don’t come from legitimate critics. They actually are guerrilla marketing campaigns that are being financed and fueled by other crypto entrepreneurs because they have an interest in doing so.
I believe that Bitcoin is a massive breakthrough for the human race that will cure half the problems in the world and generate hundreds of trillions of dollars of economic value to the civilization. And I believe that it’s in an early stage, where many people don’t understand it and they’re afraid of it, and there’s FUD, and there’s uncertainty, there’s doubt and there’s fear, and there’s a very noisy crypto world, and there’s 15,000 other cryptos that are seeking relevance. And I think most of the FUD is actually fueled by the other crypto entrepreneurs. So the environmental FUD and the other types of uncertainty that’s around Bitcoin, generally, they’re not coming from legitimate environmentalists, they don’t come from legitimate critics. They actually are guerrilla marketing campaigns that are being financed and fueled by other crypto entrepreneurs because they have an interest in doing so.
So if I look at the constructive path forward, first, I think it’d be very constructive for corporations to embrace Bitcoin and build applications on top of it. You don’t need to fix it. There’s nothing wrong with it. When you put it on a layer two and a layer three, it moves a billion times a second at the speed of light. So every beautiful, cool DeFi application, every crypto application, everything you could imagine you might want to do, you can do with a legitimate company and a legitimate website or mobile application sitting on top of Bitcoin or lightning if you want to. So I think that to the extent that people do that, that’s going to be better for the world. If you consider what holds people back, I think it’s just misperceptions about what Bitcoin is. So I’m a big fan of just educating people. If you’re not going to commercialize it, then just educate people on what it is.
So for example, Bitcoin is the most efficient use of energy in the world by far. Right? Most people, they don’t necessarily perceive that or realize that, but if you were to take any metric energy intensity, you put $2 billion worth of electricity in the network every year and it’s worth $850 billion. There is no industry in the real world that is that energy efficient. Not only that energy efficient, it’s also the most sustainable industry. We do surveys, 58% of Bitcoin mining energy is sustainable. So there’s a very good story, in fact, every other industry, planes, trains, automobiles, construction, food, medicine, everything else, it’s less clean, less efficient. So-
Lex Fridman
So the basic debate was-
So the basic debate was-
Michael Saylor
I wouldn’t say there is a debate. I would just say that to the extent that the Bitcoin community had any issue with Elon, it was just this environmental uncertainty that he fueled in a couple of his tweets, which I think just is very distracting.
I wouldn’t say there is a debate. I would just say that to the extent that the Bitcoin community had any issue with Elon, it was just this environmental uncertainty that he fueled in a couple of his tweets, which I think just is very distracting.
Lex Fridman
Well, that was one of them, but I think it’s the Bitcoin maximalists, but generally the crypto community, what you call the crypto entrepreneurs are… It’s also they’re using it for investment, for speculation, and therefore get very passionate about people’s, celebrities, including you, famous people, saying positive stuff about any one particular crypto, a thing you can buy in Coinbase. And so they might be unhappy with Elon Musk that he’s promoting Bitcoin and then not, and then promoting Dogecoin, then not. There’s so much emotion tied up in the communication on this topic, and I think that’s where a lot of the-
Well, that was one of them, but I think it’s the Bitcoin maximalists, but generally the crypto community, what you call the crypto entrepreneurs are… It’s also they’re using it for investment, for speculation, and therefore get very passionate about people’s, celebrities, including you, famous people, saying positive stuff about any one particular crypto, a thing you can buy in Coinbase. And so they might be unhappy with Elon Musk that he’s promoting Bitcoin and then not, and then promoting Dogecoin, then not. There’s so much emotion tied up in the communication on this topic, and I think that’s where a lot of the-
Michael Saylor
Look, I don’t have a criticism of Elon Musk. He’s free to do whatever he wishes to do. It’s his life. In fact, Elon Musk is the second-largest supporter of Bitcoin in the world. So I think that the Bitcoin community tends to eat its own quite a bit. It tends to be very self-critical, and instead of saying, “Well, Elon is more supportive of Bitcoin than the other 10,000 people in the world with serious amounts of money,” they focus upon…
Look, I don’t have a criticism of Elon Musk. He’s free to do whatever he wishes to do. It’s his life. In fact, Elon Musk is the second-largest supporter of Bitcoin in the world. So I think that the Bitcoin community tends to eat its own quite a bit. It tends to be very self-critical, and instead of saying, “Well, Elon is more supportive of Bitcoin than the other 10,000 people in the world with serious amounts of money,” they focus upon…
Lex Fridman
Yeah, this is strange. Eating your own is just…
Yeah, this is strange. Eating your own is just…
Michael Saylor
I think he’s free to do what he wants to do. I think he’s done a lot of good for Bitcoin in putting it on the balance sheet of Tesla and holding it, and I think that sent a very powerful message.
I think he’s free to do what he wants to do. I think he’s done a lot of good for Bitcoin in putting it on the balance sheet of Tesla and holding it, and I think that sent a very powerful message.
Advice for young people
Lex Fridman
Do you have advice for young people? So you’ve had a heck of a life, you’ve done quite a lot of things, start before MIT, but starting with MIT, is there advice you have for young people, in high school and college, how to have a career that can be proud of, how to have a life they can be proud of?
Do you have advice for young people? So you’ve had a heck of a life, you’ve done quite a lot of things, start before MIT, but starting with MIT, is there advice you have for young people, in high school and college, how to have a career that can be proud of, how to have a life they can be proud of?
Michael Saylor
I was asked by somebody for quick advice for his young children. He had twins, when they enter adulthood. He said, “Give me your advice for them,” in a letter. “I’m going to give it to them when they turn 21,” or something. I was at a party and then he handed me this sheet of paper, and I thought, “Oh, he wants me to write it down right now.” So I sat down, I started writing and I figured, “Well, what would you want to tell someone at age 21?”
I was asked by somebody for quick advice for his young children. He had twins, when they enter adulthood. He said, “Give me your advice for them,” in a letter. “I’m going to give it to them when they turn 21,” or something. I was at a party and then he handed me this sheet of paper, and I thought, “Oh, he wants me to write it down right now.” So I sat down, I started writing and I figured, “Well, what would you want to tell someone at age 21?”
Lex Fridman
You wrote it down.
You wrote it down.
Michael Saylor
So I wrote it down. Then I tweeted it and it’s sitting on Twitter. But I tell you what I said. I said, “My advice, if you’re entering adulthood, focus your energy, guard your time, train your mind, train your body, think for yourself, curate your friends, curate your environment, keep your promises, stay cheerful and constructive, and upgrade the world.” That was the 10.
So I wrote it down. Then I tweeted it and it’s sitting on Twitter. But I tell you what I said. I said, “My advice, if you’re entering adulthood, focus your energy, guard your time, train your mind, train your body, think for yourself, curate your friends, curate your environment, keep your promises, stay cheerful and constructive, and upgrade the world.” That was the 10.
Lex Fridman
Upgrade the world. That’s an interesting choice of words. Upgrade the world. Upgrade the world.
Upgrade the world. That’s an interesting choice of words. Upgrade the world. Upgrade the world.
Michael Saylor
It’s like an engineer’s [inaudible 03:39:42]
It’s like an engineer’s [inaudible 03:39:42]
Lex Fridman
It’s a very, yeah, it is a very engineering themed… Keep you promises too, that’s an interesting one.
It’s a very, yeah, it is a very engineering themed… Keep you promises too, that’s an interesting one.
Michael Saylor
I think most people suffer because they don’t focus. You got to figure out… I think the big risk in this world is there’s too much of everything.
I think most people suffer because they don’t focus. You got to figure out… I think the big risk in this world is there’s too much of everything.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
You can sit and watch chess videos a hundred hours a week and you’ll never get through all the chess videos. There’s too much of every possible thing, too much of every good thing. So figuring out what you want to do, and then… Everything will suck up your time. There’s a hundred streaming channels to binge-watch on. You got to guard your time and then train your body, train your mind, and control who’s around you, control what surrounds you. So ultimately, in a world where there’s too much of everything, then your success-
You can sit and watch chess videos a hundred hours a week and you’ll never get through all the chess videos. There’s too much of every possible thing, too much of every good thing. So figuring out what you want to do, and then… Everything will suck up your time. There’s a hundred streaming channels to binge-watch on. You got to guard your time and then train your body, train your mind, and control who’s around you, control what surrounds you. So ultimately, in a world where there’s too much of everything, then your success-
Lex Fridman
It’s like those laser eyes, you have to focus on just a few of those things.
It’s like those laser eyes, you have to focus on just a few of those things.
Michael Saylor
Yeah. I got a thousand opinions we could talk about, and I could pursue a thousand things, but I don’t expect to be successful. I’m not sure that my opinion in any of the 999 is any more valid than the leader of thought in that area. So how about if I just focus upon one thing and then deliver the best I can in the one thing. That’s the laser eye message. The rest get you distracted.
Yeah. I got a thousand opinions we could talk about, and I could pursue a thousand things, but I don’t expect to be successful. I’m not sure that my opinion in any of the 999 is any more valid than the leader of thought in that area. So how about if I just focus upon one thing and then deliver the best I can in the one thing. That’s the laser eye message. The rest get you distracted.
Lex Fridman
How do you achieve that? Do you find yourself, given where you are in life, having to say no a lot, or just focus comes natural when you just ignore everything around you? So how do you achieve that focus?
How do you achieve that? Do you find yourself, given where you are in life, having to say no a lot, or just focus comes natural when you just ignore everything around you? So how do you achieve that focus?
Michael Saylor
I think it helps if people know what you’re focused on.
I think it helps if people know what you’re focused on.
Lex Fridman
So everything about you just radiates that, people know. People know this is-
So everything about you just radiates that, people know. People know this is-
Michael Saylor
If they know what you’re focused on, then you won’t get so many other things coming your way. If you dally or if you flirt with 27 different things, then you’re going to get approached by people in each of the 27 communities. Right?
If they know what you’re focused on, then you won’t get so many other things coming your way. If you dally or if you flirt with 27 different things, then you’re going to get approached by people in each of the 27 communities. Right?
Lex Fridman
You mentioned beginning a PhD, and given your roots at MIT, do you think there’s… There’s all kinds of journeys you can take to educate yourself. Do you think a PhD or school is still worth it, or is there other paths through life?
You mentioned beginning a PhD, and given your roots at MIT, do you think there’s… There’s all kinds of journeys you can take to educate yourself. Do you think a PhD or school is still worth it, or is there other paths through life?
Michael Saylor
Is it worth it if you had to pay for it? Is it worth it if you spend the time on it?
Is it worth it if you had to pay for it? Is it worth it if you spend the time on it?
Lex Fridman
The time and the money is a big cost?
The time and the money is a big cost?
Michael Saylor
I think…
I think…
Lex Fridman
Time, probably the bigger one. Right?
Time, probably the bigger one. Right?
Michael Saylor
It seems clear to me that the world wants more specialists. It wants you to be an expert and to focus on in one area. It’s punishing generalists, jack-of-all-trades, especially people that are generalists in the physical realm. Because if you’re a specialist in the digital realm, you might very well… You’re the person with 700,000 followers on Twitter and you show them how to tie knots, or you’re the banjo player with 1.8 million followers, and when everybody types banjo, it’s you, right?
It seems clear to me that the world wants more specialists. It wants you to be an expert and to focus on in one area. It’s punishing generalists, jack-of-all-trades, especially people that are generalists in the physical realm. Because if you’re a specialist in the digital realm, you might very well… You’re the person with 700,000 followers on Twitter and you show them how to tie knots, or you’re the banjo player with 1.8 million followers, and when everybody types banjo, it’s you, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
And so the world wants people that do something well, and then it wants to stamp out 18 million copies of them. And so that argues in favor of focus. Now, the definition of a PhD is someone with enough of an education that they’re capable of or have made… I guess to get a PhD, technically you have to have done a dissertation where you made a seminal contribution to the body of human knowledge. And if you haven’t done that, technically you have a master’s degree, but you’re not a doctor. So if you’re interested in any of the academic disciplines that a PhD would be granted for, then I can see that being a reasonable pursuit. But there are many people that are specialists… you know the Agadmator?
And so the world wants people that do something well, and then it wants to stamp out 18 million copies of them. And so that argues in favor of focus. Now, the definition of a PhD is someone with enough of an education that they’re capable of or have made… I guess to get a PhD, technically you have to have done a dissertation where you made a seminal contribution to the body of human knowledge. And if you haven’t done that, technically you have a master’s degree, but you’re not a doctor. So if you’re interested in any of the academic disciplines that a PhD would be granted for, then I can see that being a reasonable pursuit. But there are many people that are specialists… you know the Agadmator?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Michael Saylor
The Agadmator on YouTube. He’s the world’s greatest chess commentator.
The Agadmator on YouTube. He’s the world’s greatest chess commentator.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
I’ve watched his career, and he’s got progressively better, and he’s really good.
I’ve watched his career, and he’s got progressively better, and he’s really good.
Lex Fridman
He’s going to love hearing this.
He’s going to love hearing this.
Michael Saylor
If the Agadmator ever hears this, I’m a big fan of the Agadmator. I have to cut myself off, right? Because otherwise you’ll watch the entire Paul Morphy saga for your weekend. But the point really is, YouTube is full of experts who are specialists in something, and they rise to the top of their profession. Twitter is too. The internet is. So I would advocate that you figure out what you’re passionate about and what you’re good at, and you do focus on it, especially if… If the thing that you’re doing can be automated… The problem is, back to that 500,000 algebra teacher type comment, the problem is if it is possible to be automated, then over time, someone’s probably going to automate it, that squeezes the state space of everybody else. Like after the lockdowns, it used to be there are all these local bands that played in bars and everybody went to the bar to see the local band, and then during the lockdown, you would have these six super groups, and they would all get 500,000 or a million followers, and all these smaller local bands just got no attention at all.
If the Agadmator ever hears this, I’m a big fan of the Agadmator. I have to cut myself off, right? Because otherwise you’ll watch the entire Paul Morphy saga for your weekend. But the point really is, YouTube is full of experts who are specialists in something, and they rise to the top of their profession. Twitter is too. The internet is. So I would advocate that you figure out what you’re passionate about and what you’re good at, and you do focus on it, especially if… If the thing that you’re doing can be automated… The problem is, back to that 500,000 algebra teacher type comment, the problem is if it is possible to be automated, then over time, someone’s probably going to automate it, that squeezes the state space of everybody else. Like after the lockdowns, it used to be there are all these local bands that played in bars and everybody went to the bar to see the local band, and then during the lockdown, you would have these six super groups, and they would all get 500,000 or a million followers, and all these smaller local bands just got no attention at all.
Lex Fridman
Well, the interesting thing is one of those 500,000 algebra teachers is likely to be part of the automation. So it’s an opportunity for you to think, “Where’s my field, my discipline, evolving into?” I talked to a bunch of librarians, just happen to be friends with librarians. Libraries will probably be evolving, and it’s up to you as a librarian to be one of the few that remain in the rubble.
Well, the interesting thing is one of those 500,000 algebra teachers is likely to be part of the automation. So it’s an opportunity for you to think, “Where’s my field, my discipline, evolving into?” I talked to a bunch of librarians, just happen to be friends with librarians. Libraries will probably be evolving, and it’s up to you as a librarian to be one of the few that remain in the rubble.
Michael Saylor
If you’re going to give commentary on Shakespeare plays, I want you to basically do it for every Shakespeare play. I want you to be the Shakespeare dude. Because just like, Lex, you’re like..
If you’re going to give commentary on Shakespeare plays, I want you to basically do it for every Shakespeare play. I want you to be the Shakespeare dude. Because just like, Lex, you’re like..
Lex Fridman
I don’t know what kind of…
I don’t know what kind of…
Michael Saylor
You’re the deep thinking podcaster, or you’re the podcaster that goes after the deep intellectual conversations. And once I get comfortable with you, and I like you, then I start binge-watching Lex. But if you changed your format through 16 different formats so that you could compete with 16 different other personalities on YouTube, you probably wouldn’t beat any of them, right? You would probably just kind of sink into the, you’re the number two or number three guy. You’re not the number one guy in the format. And I think the algorithm, right? The Twitter algorithm and the YouTube algorithm, they really reward the person that’s focused on message, consistent. The world wants somebody they can trust that’s consistent and reliable, and they kind of want to know what they’re getting into, because, and this is taken for granted maybe, but there’s 10 million people vying for every hour of your time. And so the fact that anybody gives you any time at all is a huge-
You’re the deep thinking podcaster, or you’re the podcaster that goes after the deep intellectual conversations. And once I get comfortable with you, and I like you, then I start binge-watching Lex. But if you changed your format through 16 different formats so that you could compete with 16 different other personalities on YouTube, you probably wouldn’t beat any of them, right? You would probably just kind of sink into the, you’re the number two or number three guy. You’re not the number one guy in the format. And I think the algorithm, right? The Twitter algorithm and the YouTube algorithm, they really reward the person that’s focused on message, consistent. The world wants somebody they can trust that’s consistent and reliable, and they kind of want to know what they’re getting into, because, and this is taken for granted maybe, but there’s 10 million people vying for every hour of your time. And so the fact that anybody gives you any time at all is a huge-
Lex Fridman
Is amazing.
Is amazing.
Michael Saylor
… privilege, right? And you should be thanking them and you should respect their time.
… privilege, right? And you should be thanking them and you should respect their time.
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting. Everything you said is very interesting. But of course, from my perspective and probably from your perspective, my actual life has nothing to do with, it’s just being focused on stuff. In my case, it’s like focus on doing the thing I really enjoy doing and being myself, and not caring about anything else. I don’t care about views or likes or attention. And that just maintaining that focus is the way, from an individual perspective, you live that life. But yeah, it does seem that the world and technology is rewarding the specialization and creating bigger and bigger platforms for the different specializations. And then that lifts all boats actually, because the specializations get better and better and better at teaching people to do specific things, and they educate themselves. Just everybody gets more and more knowledgeable and more and more empowered.
It’s interesting. Everything you said is very interesting. But of course, from my perspective and probably from your perspective, my actual life has nothing to do with, it’s just being focused on stuff. In my case, it’s like focus on doing the thing I really enjoy doing and being myself, and not caring about anything else. I don’t care about views or likes or attention. And that just maintaining that focus is the way, from an individual perspective, you live that life. But yeah, it does seem that the world and technology is rewarding the specialization and creating bigger and bigger platforms for the different specializations. And then that lifts all boats actually, because the specializations get better and better and better at teaching people to do specific things, and they educate themselves. Just everybody gets more and more knowledgeable and more and more empowered.
Michael Saylor
The reward for authenticity more than offsets the specificity with which you pursue your mission. Another way to say it is “Nobody wants to read advertising.” If you were to spend a hundred million dollars advertising your thing, I probably wouldn’t want to watch it, but-
The reward for authenticity more than offsets the specificity with which you pursue your mission. Another way to say it is “Nobody wants to read advertising.” If you were to spend a hundred million dollars advertising your thing, I probably wouldn’t want to watch it, but-
Lex Fridman
That’s so Fascinating.
That’s so Fascinating.
Michael Saylor
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s so fascinating.
That’s so fascinating.
Michael Saylor
We see the death of that. And so the commercial shows are losing their audiences, and the authentic specialist or the authentic artist are gaining their audience.
We see the death of that. And so the commercial shows are losing their audiences, and the authentic specialist or the authentic artist are gaining their audience.
Mortality
Lex Fridman
And that’s a beautiful thing. Speaking of deep thinking, you’re just a human. Your life ends. You’ve accumulated so much wisdom, so much money, but the ride ends. Do you think about that? Do you ponder your death, your mortality? Are you afraid of it?
And that’s a beautiful thing. Speaking of deep thinking, you’re just a human. Your life ends. You’ve accumulated so much wisdom, so much money, but the ride ends. Do you think about that? Do you ponder your death, your mortality? Are you afraid of it?
Michael Saylor
When I go, all my assets will flow into a foundation, and the foundation’s mission is to make education free for everybody forever. And if I’m able to contribute to the creation of a more perfect monetary system, then maybe that foundation will go on forever.
When I go, all my assets will flow into a foundation, and the foundation’s mission is to make education free for everybody forever. And if I’m able to contribute to the creation of a more perfect monetary system, then maybe that foundation will go on forever.
Lex Fridman
The idea, the foundation of the idea, so not just… Each of the foundations.
The idea, the foundation of the idea, so not just… Each of the foundations.
Michael Saylor
It’s not clear we’re on the s-curve of immortal life yet. That’s a biological question. And you asked that on some of your other interviews a lot. I think that we are on the threshold of immortal life for ideas or immortal life for certain institutions or computer programs. So if we can fix the money, then you can create a technically perfected endowment. And then the question really is what are your ideas? What do you want to leave behind? And so if it’s a park, then you endow the park, right? If it’s free education, you endow that. If it’s some other ethical idea, right?
It’s not clear we’re on the s-curve of immortal life yet. That’s a biological question. And you asked that on some of your other interviews a lot. I think that we are on the threshold of immortal life for ideas or immortal life for certain institutions or computer programs. So if we can fix the money, then you can create a technically perfected endowment. And then the question really is what are your ideas? What do you want to leave behind? And so if it’s a park, then you endow the park, right? If it’s free education, you endow that. If it’s some other ethical idea, right?
Lex Fridman
Does it make you sad that there’s something that you’ve endowed, some very powerful idea of digital energy that you put out into, you help put it into the world, and that your mind, your conscious mind, will no longer be there to experience it. It’s just gone forever.
Does it make you sad that there’s something that you’ve endowed, some very powerful idea of digital energy that you put out into, you help put it into the world, and that your mind, your conscious mind, will no longer be there to experience it. It’s just gone forever.
Michael Saylor
I’d rather think that the thing that Satoshi taught us is you should do your part during some phase of the journey, and then you should get out of the way. I think Steve Jobs said something similar to that effect in a very famous speech one day, which is “Death is a natural part of life and it makes way for the next generation.” And I think the goal is you upgrade the world, right? You leave it a better place, but you get out of the way. And I think when that breaks down, bad things happen. I think nature cleanses itself. There’s a cycle of life.
I’d rather think that the thing that Satoshi taught us is you should do your part during some phase of the journey, and then you should get out of the way. I think Steve Jobs said something similar to that effect in a very famous speech one day, which is “Death is a natural part of life and it makes way for the next generation.” And I think the goal is you upgrade the world, right? You leave it a better place, but you get out of the way. And I think when that breaks down, bad things happen. I think nature cleanses itself. There’s a cycle of life.
Meaning of life
Lex Fridman
And speaking of one of great people who did also get out of the way is George Washington. So hopefully when you get out of the way, nobody’s bleeding you to death in hope of helping you. What do you think, to do a bit of a callback, what do you think is the meaning of this whole thing? What’s the meaning of life? Why are we here? We talked about the rise of human civilization. It seems like we’re engineers at heart. We build cool stuff, better and better use of energy, channeling energy to be productive. Why? What’s it all for?
And speaking of one of great people who did also get out of the way is George Washington. So hopefully when you get out of the way, nobody’s bleeding you to death in hope of helping you. What do you think, to do a bit of a callback, what do you think is the meaning of this whole thing? What’s the meaning of life? Why are we here? We talked about the rise of human civilization. It seems like we’re engineers at heart. We build cool stuff, better and better use of energy, channeling energy to be productive. Why? What’s it all for?
Michael Saylor
You’re getting metaphysical on me.
You’re getting metaphysical on me.
Lex Fridman
Very. There’s a beautiful boat to the left of us. Why do we do that? This boat that sailed the ocean? Then we build models of it to celebrate great engineering of the past.
Very. There’s a beautiful boat to the left of us. Why do we do that? This boat that sailed the ocean? Then we build models of it to celebrate great engineering of the past.
Michael Saylor
To engineer is divine. You can make lots of arguments as why we’re here. We’re either here to entertain ourselves or we’re here to create something that’s beautiful or something that’s functional. I think if you’re an engineer, you entertain yourself by creating something that’s both beautiful and functional. So I think all three of those things, it’s entertaining, but it’s ethical. You got to admire the first person that built a bridge, crossing a chasm, or the first person to work out the problem of how to get running water to a village, or the first person to figure out how to dam up a river, or mastered agriculture, or the guy that figured out how to grow fruit on trees or created orchards, and maybe one day had 10 fruit trees. He is pretty proud of himself.
To engineer is divine. You can make lots of arguments as why we’re here. We’re either here to entertain ourselves or we’re here to create something that’s beautiful or something that’s functional. I think if you’re an engineer, you entertain yourself by creating something that’s both beautiful and functional. So I think all three of those things, it’s entertaining, but it’s ethical. You got to admire the first person that built a bridge, crossing a chasm, or the first person to work out the problem of how to get running water to a village, or the first person to figure out how to dam up a river, or mastered agriculture, or the guy that figured out how to grow fruit on trees or created orchards, and maybe one day had 10 fruit trees. He is pretty proud of himself.
Lex Fridman
So that’s functional. There is also something to that, just like you said, that’s just beautiful. It does get you closer to, like you said, the divine. Something… When you step back and look at the entirety of it. A collective of humans, using a beautiful invention or creation, or just something about this instrument is creating a beautiful piece of music, that seems just right. That’s what we’re here for. Whatever the divine is, it seems like we’re here for that. And I, of course, love talking to you because from the engineering perspective, the functional is ultimately the mechanism towards the beauty.
So that’s functional. There is also something to that, just like you said, that’s just beautiful. It does get you closer to, like you said, the divine. Something… When you step back and look at the entirety of it. A collective of humans, using a beautiful invention or creation, or just something about this instrument is creating a beautiful piece of music, that seems just right. That’s what we’re here for. Whatever the divine is, it seems like we’re here for that. And I, of course, love talking to you because from the engineering perspective, the functional is ultimately the mechanism towards the beauty.
Michael Saylor
Isn’t there something beautiful about making the world a better place for people that you love, your friends, your family, or yourself? When you think about the entire arc of human existence, and you roll the clock back 500,000 years, and you think about every struggle of everyone that came before us, and everything they had to overcome in order to put you here right now, you got to admire that, right? You got to respect that.
Isn’t there something beautiful about making the world a better place for people that you love, your friends, your family, or yourself? When you think about the entire arc of human existence, and you roll the clock back 500,000 years, and you think about every struggle of everyone that came before us, and everything they had to overcome in order to put you here right now, you got to admire that, right? You got to respect that.
Lex Fridman
That’s a heck of a gift they gave us. It’s also a heck of a responsibility. Don’t screw it up.
That’s a heck of a gift they gave us. It’s also a heck of a responsibility. Don’t screw it up.
Michael Saylor
If I dropped you 500,000 years ago and I said, figure out steel refining, or figure out silicon chips, fab reproduction, or whatever it is.
If I dropped you 500,000 years ago and I said, figure out steel refining, or figure out silicon chips, fab reproduction, or whatever it is.
Lex Fridman
To fly, or fire.
To fly, or fire.
Michael Saylor
You’d be like, “Ugh.” And so now we’re here, and I guess the way you repay them is you fix everything in front of your face you can. And that means, to someone like Elon, it means get us off the planet. To someone like me, it’s like, I think fix the energy and the system,
You’d be like, “Ugh.” And so now we’re here, and I guess the way you repay them is you fix everything in front of your face you can. And that means, to someone like Elon, it means get us off the planet. To someone like me, it’s like, I think fix the energy and the system,
Lex Fridman
And that gives me hope. Michael, this was an incredible conversation. You’re an incredible human. It’s a huge honor you would sit down with me. Thank you so much for talking today.
And that gives me hope. Michael, this was an incredible conversation. You’re an incredible human. It’s a huge honor you would sit down with me. Thank you so much for talking today.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, thanks for having me, Lex.
Yeah, thanks for having me, Lex.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Michael Saylor. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with a few words from Francis Bacon “Money is a great servant, but a bad master.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Michael Saylor. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with a few words from Francis Bacon “Money is a great servant, but a bad master.” Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Nick Lane: Origin of Life, Evolution, Aliens, Biology, and Consciousness | Lex Fridman Podcast #318
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #318 with Nick Lane.
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Well, there is one. There’s a very obvious one. It’s basically created by whenever you have a wet rocky planet, you get these hydrothermal vents, which generate hydrogen gas in bucket loads and electrical charges on kind of cell-like pores that can drive the kind of chemistry that life does. So, it seems so beautiful and so obvious, that I’ve spent the last 10 years or more trying to do experiments. It turns out to be difficult, of course. Everything’s more difficult than you ever thought it was going to be, but it looks, I would say, more true rather than less true over that ten-year period. I think I have to take a step back every now and then and think, “Hang on a minute. Where is this going?” I’m happy it’s going in a sensible direction.
And I think then you have these other interesting dilemmas. I’m often accused of being too focused on life on earth, too kind of narrow-minded and inward looking, you might say. I’m talking about carbon, I’m talking about cells. And maybe you or plenty of people can say to me, “Oh, yeah, but life can be anything. I have no imagination.” And maybe they’re right, but unless we can say why life here is this way, and if those reasons are fundamental reasons or if they’re just trivial reasons, then we can’t answer that question. So, I think they’re fundamental reasons, and I think we need to worry about them.
But there’s a very interesting deep split in life between bacteria and what are called archaea, which look just the same as bacteria. And they’re not quite as diverse, but nearly, and they are very different in their biochemistry. And so any explanation for the origin of life has to account, as well, for why they’re so different and yet so similar. And that makes me think that life probably did arise only once.
And when you leave the vent, you’ve got to do that yourself. You’ve got to power up your own membrane. And so the question is: well, how do you power up your own membrane? And the answer is, well, you need to pump. You need to pump ions to give an electrical charge on the membrane. So, what do the pumps look like? Well, the pumps look different in these two groups. It’s as if they both emerge from a common ancestor, and as soon as you’ve got that ancestor, things move very quickly and divergently. Why does the DNA replication look different? Well, it’s joined to the membrane. The membranes are different. The DNA replication is different because it’s joined to a different kind of membrane. So, there’s interesting… This is detail you may say, but it’s also fundamental because it’s about the two big divergent groups of life on earth that seemed to have diverged really early on.
And the answer is, “Oh, well, they have to go ‘bloop’ and become alive.” So, how did they do that? You may as well say that a miracle happened. I don’t believe in soup. I think what we have in a vent is a continuous conversion, a continuous growth, a continuous reaction, a continuous converting a flow of molecules into more of yourself, you might say, even if it’s a small bit. So, you’ve got a kind of continuous self-organization and growth from the very beginning. You never have that in a soup.
To come back to your first question about panspermia properly, that just pushes the question somewhere else, even if it’s true. Maybe life did start on Earth by panspermia, but so what are the principles that govern the emergence of life on any planet? It’s an assumption that life started here, and it’s an assumption that it started in a hydrothermal vent or it started in a terrestrial geothermal system. The question is: can we work out a testable sequence of events that would lead from one to the other one? And then test it, and see if there’s any truth in it or not. With panspermia, you can’t do any of that.
And in that framework, every time you have a choice, it could be this way or it could be that way, or there’s lots of possible forks down that road, did it have to be that way? Could it have been the other way, and would that have given you life with very different properties? And so if you come up with… It’s a long hypothesis, because as I say, we’re going from really simple prebiotic chemistry all the way through to genes and molecular machines. That’s a long, long pathway. And nobody in the field would agree on the order in which these things happened, which is not a bad thing because it means that you have to go out and do some experiments and try and demonstrate that it’s possible or not possible.
The real question is: what is… We can argue all day, or people do argue all day about: is a virus alive or not? And it depends on the content. In fact, most biologists could not agree about that. So, then what about a jumping gene, a retro element or something like that? It’s even simpler than a virus, but it’s capable of converting its environment into a copy of itself. And that’s about as close… This is not a definition, but this is a kind of description of life, is that it’s able to parasitize the environment, and that goes for plants as well as animals and bacteria and viruses, to make a relatively exact copy of themselves, informationally exact copy of themselves.
This is a kind of leap into a different direction. The only question for natural selection is: does it work? Is the change itself feasible as a single change? And the answer is yes. It’s just a small change to a single gene. And the second thing is it gives rise to a completely different morphology. Does it work? And if it works, that can easily be a shift. But for it to be a speciation, for it to continue, for it to give rise to a different morphology over time, then it has to be perpetuated. So that shift, that change in that one gene has to work well enough that it is selected and it goes on.
But we still need to constrain those steps, but we’ve got a planet doing similar chemistry. You asked about a trajectory. The trajectory is the planetary trajectory. The planet has properties. It’s basically… It’s got a lot of iron at the center of it, it’s got a lot of electrons at the center of it. It’s more oxidized on the outside, partly because of the sun, and partly because the heat of volcanoes puts out oxidized gases. So, the planet is a battery. It’s a giant battery. And we have a flow of electrons going from inside to outside in these hydrothermal vents, and that’s the same topology that a cell has. A cell is basically just a micro-version of the planet.
And there is a trajectory in all of that, and there’s an inevitability that certain types of chemical reaction are going to be favored over others. And there’s an inevitability in what happens in water, the chemistry that happens in water. Some will be immiscible with water and will form membranes and will form insoluble structures. Water’s a… Nobody really understands water very well. And it’s another big question for experiments on the origin of life: what do you put it in? What kind of structure do we want to induce in this water? Because the last thing it’s likely to be is just kind of bulk water.
So, it wouldn’t surprise me any longer if we found life on Mars and it had a genetic code that was not very different to the genetic code that we have here without it just being transferred across, there’s some inevitability about the whole of the beginnings of life, in my view.
And that wiring, it can’t be easy to get it right because the plants that we see around us, they have chloroplasts. Those chloroplasts were cyanobacteria ones. Those cyanobacteria are the only group of bacteria that can do that type of photosynthesis, so there’s plenty of opportunity but-
You can do it from iron, you can take electrons… So the early oceans, were probably full of iron, you can take an electron from ferrous iron, so Iron 2+ and make it Iron 3+, which now precipitates as rust, and you take a proton from the acidic early ocean, stick it there now you’ve got a hydrogen atom, stick it onto CO2, you’ve just done the trick. The trouble is you bury yourself in rusty iron and with sulphur can bury yourself in sulphur. One of the reasons oxygenic photosynthesis is so much better is that the waste product is oxygen, which just bubbles away.
The earliest life that we can physically see on the planet are stromatolites, which are made by things like cyanobacteria and they’re large superstructures, effectively biofilms plated on top of each other, and you end up with quite large structures that you can see in the fossil record. But they never came up with animals, they never came up with plants, they came up with multicellular things filamentous cyanobacteria for example, they’re just long strings of cells. But the origin of the eukaryotic cell seems to have been what’s called an endosymbiosis so one cell gets inside another cell, and I think that that transformed the energetic possibilities of life. So what we end up with is a kind of supercharged cell, which can have a much larger nucleus with many more genes all supported.
You could think about it as multi-bacterial power without the overhead. So you’ve got a cell and it’s got bacteria living in it, and those bacteria are providing it with the energy currency it needs. But each bacterium has a genome of its own, which costs a fair amount of energy to express, to turn over and convert into proteins and so on. What the mitochondria did, which are these power packs in our own cells, they were bacteria once and they threw away virtually all their genes, they’ve only got a few left.
And it is interesting then that the only two occasions that complex life has arisen on earth, plants and animals, fungi you could say are complex as well, but they don’t form such complex morphology as plants and animals, start with a single cell they start with an oocyte and a sperm fused together to make a zygote. So we start development with a single cell and all the cells in the organism have identical DNA, and in the brain, you switch off these genes and you switch on those genes and the liver, you switch off those and you switch on a different set. And the standard evolutionary explanation for that is that you’re restricting conflict, you don’t have a load of genetically different cells that are all fighting each other and so it works.
The trouble with bacteria is they form these biofilms and they’re all genetically different, and effectively they’re incapable of that level of cooperation they would get in a fight.
So they have explored genetic sequence space far more thoroughly than eukaryotes ever did because they’ve had twice as long at least, and they’ve got much larger populations, and they never got around this problem. So why can’t they? It seems as if you can’t solve it with information alone. So what’s the problem? The problem is structure.
If the very first cells needed an electrical charge on their membrane to grow, and in bacteria it’s the outer membrane that surrounds the cell, which is electrically charged, you try and scale that up and you’ve got a fundamental design problem, you’ve got an engineering problem, and there are examples of it. And what we see in all these cases is what’s known as extreme polyploidy, which is to say they have tens of thousands of copies of their complete genome, which is energetically hugely expensive, and you end up with a large bacteria with no further development. What you is to incorporate these electrically charged power pack units inside with their control units intact, and for them not to conflict so much with the host cell that it all goes wrong, perhaps it goes wrong more often than not, and then you change the topology of the cell.
Now, you don’t necessarily have any more DNA than a giant bacterium with extreme polyploidy, but what you’ve got is an asymmetry. You now have a giant nuclear genome surrounded by lots of subsidiary energetic genomes they’re the control units that are doing all the control of energy generation.
So again, why switch? What are the drivers here? So there’s a lot of time, there’s a lot of evolution, but as soon as you’ve got cells living inside another cell, what you’ve got is a new design, you’ve got new potential that you didn’t have before.
So now we have four copies of the complete genome, and then we crisscross between all of these things. So we take a bit from here and stick it on there and a bit from here, and we stick it on here, that’s recombination. Then we go through two rounds of cell division. So we divide in half, so now the two daughter cells have two copies and we divide in half again, now we have some gametes, each of which has got a single copy of the genome. And that’s the basic ground plan for what’s called meiosis and syn-gametes, that’s basically sex.
And it happens at the level of single-celled organisms and it happens pretty much the same way in plants and pretty much the same way in animals and so on. And it’s not found in any bacteria, they switch things around using the same machinery and they take up a bit of DNA from the environment. They take out this bit and stick in that bit, and it’s the same molecular machinery they’re using to do it.
So I know I’ve got a mutation in a gene, I don’t know which gene it is because I’m not sentient, but I know I can’t grow, I know all my regulation systems are saying, “Something wrong here, something wrong, pick up some DNA, pick up a bit of DNA from the environment.” If you’ve got a small genome, the chances of you picking up the right bit of DNA from the environment is much higher than if you’ve got a genome of 20,000 genes. To do that, you’ve effectively got to be picking up DNA all the time, all day long and nothing else, and you’re still going to get the wrong DNA. You’ve got to pick up large chunks, and in the end, you’ve got to line them up, you’re forced into sex, to coin a phrase.
They have the same machinery in these algal blooms. How do they know who dies? The answer is they will often put out a toxin and that toxin is a kind of challenge to you. Either you can cope with the toxin or you can’t. If you can cope with it, you form a spore and you will go on to become the next generation. You form kind of a resistant spore, you sink down a little bit, you get out of the way, you can’t be attacked by a virus if you’re a spore or at least not so easily. Whereas if you can’t deal with that toxin, you pull the plug and you trigger your death apparatus and you kill yourself.
So getting to RNA, I suspect is probably not that hard. But getting from RNA, there’s multiple different types of RNA now, how do you distinguish? This is something we’re actively thinking about, how do you distinguish between a random population of RNA? Some of them go on to become messenger RNA, this is the transcript of the code of the gene that you want to make. Some of them become transfer RNA, which is kind of the unit that holds the amino acid that’s going to be polymerized. Some of them become ribosomal RNA, which is the machine, which is joining them all up together.
How do they discriminate themselves? There’s some kind of phase transition going on there, I don’t know, it’s a difficult question and we’re now in the region of biology where information is coming in. But the thing about RNA is very, very good at what it does but the largest genomes supported by RNA are RNA viruses like HIV, for example. They’re pretty small. And so there’s a limit to how complex life could be unless you come up with DNA, which chemically is a really small change but how easy it is to make that change? I don’t really know. As soon as you’ve got DNA, then you’ve got an amazingly stable molecule for information storage, and you can do absolutely anything. But how likely that transition from RNA to DNA was? I don’t know either.
The question to me is, why is it this way? Is it because there was some form of selection that this is better than the other forms and there were lots of competing forms of information storage early on, and this one was the one that worked out? Or was it kind of channeled that way, that these are the molecules that you’re dealing with and they work? And I’m increasingly thinking it’s that way that we’re channeled towards ribose phosphate and the bases that are used, but there are 200 different letters kicking around out there that could have been used.
And then the question is, did human civilization always strive towards JavaScript or was JavaScript just the first programming language that ran on the browser and still sticky? The first is the sticky one, and so it wins over anything else because it was first. And I don’t think that’s answerable, right? But it’s good to ask that. I suppose in the lab you can’t run it with programming languages, but in biology you can probably do some kind of small scale evolutionary test to try to infer which is which?
And something changes. Oxygen definitely changes during this period. Other things may have changed as well. But the next thing you really see in the fossil record is the Cambrian explosion. And what do we see there? We’re now seeing animals that we would recognize, they’ve got eyes, they’ve got claws, they’ve got shells. They’re plainly killing things or running away and hiding. So we’ve gone from a rather gentle, but limited world, to a rather vicious, unpleasant world that we recognize, which leads to kind of arms races, evolutionary arms races, which again is something that when we think about a nuclear arms race, we think, “Jesus, we don’t want to go there. It’s not done anybody any good.” In some ways, maybe it does do good. I don’t want to make an argument for nuclear arms, but predation as a mechanism forces organisms to adapt, to change, to be better, to escape, or to kill. If you need to eat, then you’ve got to eat. A cheetah is not going to run at that speed unless it has to because the zebra is capable of escaping. So it leads to much greater feats of evolution would ever have been possible without it, and in the end, to a much more beautiful world. So it’s not all bad, by any means.
But the thing is, you can’t have this if you don’t have an oxygenated planet because it’s all, in the end, it’s about how much energy can you extract from the food you eat? And if you don’t have an oxygenated planet, you can get about 10% out, not much more than that. And if you’ve got an oxygenated planet, you can get about 40% out. And that means you can have, instead of having one or two trophic levels, you can have five or six trophic levels, and that means things can eat things that eat other things and so on, and you’ve gone to a level of ecological complexity, which is completely impossible in the absence of oxygen.
In terms of violence and interactions between groups, yes, all this dynamic of if you’re interacting between groups, you can be certain that they’re going to be burning each other and all kinds of physical, violent interactions as well, which will drive the kind of cleverness of, how do you resist this? Let’s build a tower. What are we going to do to prevent being overrun by those marauding gangs from over there? And you look outside humans, and you look at chimps and bonobos and so on, and they’re very, very different structures to society. Chimps tend to have an aggressive alpha male-type structure, and bonobos, there’s basically a female society, where the males are predominantly excluded and only brought in at the behest of the female. We have a lot in common with both of those groups.
Asking for a friend again, what do you think happened to Neanderthals? What did we cheeky humans do to the Neanderthals, homo sapiens? Do you think we murdered them? How do we murder them? How do we out-compete them, or do we out-mate them?
But the problem is, because they go down only the maternal line, from mother to daughter, your mitochondrial DNA and mine, it’s going nowhere. It doesn’t matter. Any kids we have, they get their mother’s mitochondrial DNA, except in very, very rare and strange circumstances. So it tells a different story, and it’s not a story which is easy to reconcile always. And what it seems to suggest, to my mind at least, is that there was one-way traffic of genes probably going from humans into Neanderthals rather than the other way around.
Why did the Neanderthals disappear? I don’t know. I suspect they were probably less violent, less clever, less populous, less willing to fight. I don’t know. I think we probably drove them to extinction at the margins of Europe.
So it’s not that big a deal to evolve an eye. But once you have one, then there’s nowhere to hide. Again, we’re back to predator-prey relationships. We’re back to all the benefits that being able to see brings you. And if you think philosophically what bats are doing with ecolocation and so on, I have no idea, but I suspect that they form an image of the world in pretty much the same way that we do. It’s just a matter of mental reconstruction.
So I suppose the other thing about sight, there are single-celled organisms that have got a lens and a retina and a cornea and so on. Basically they’ve got a camera-type eye in a single cell. They don’t have a brain; what they understand about their world is impossible to say, but they’re capable of coming up with the same structures to do so. So I suppose then, is that once you’ve got things like eyes, then you have a big driving pressure on the central nervous system to figure out what it all means.
And then we come around to your other point about manipulation, sensory input, and so on about now you have a huge requirement to understand what your environment is and what it means and how it reacts and how you should run away and where you should stay put.
When you watch a child develop, it walks into a table. It bangs its head on the table and it hurts. Now you’ve got two inputs. You’ve got one pain from this sharp edge, and number two, probably you’ve touched it and realized it’s there, it’s a sharp edge, and you’ve got the visual input. And you put the three things together and think, “I don’t want to walk into a table again.” So you’re learning, and it’s a limited reality, but it’s a true reality. And if you don’t learn that properly, then you will get eaten, you will get hit by a bus, you will not survive. And same if you’re in some kind of, let’s say, computer construction of reality. I’m not in my ground here, but if you construct the laws that this is what reality is inside this, then you play by those laws.
Now, if you’ve got just babies in the matrix who are slotted into this, I don’t think they have that kind of sensory input. I don’t think they would have any way to make sense of New York as a world that they’re part of. The brain is just not developed in that way.
Because 10 years ago I wrote a chapter in a book called Life Ascending about consciousness. And the subtitle of Life Ascending was The Ten Great Inventions of Evolution, and I couldn’t possibly write a book with a subtitle like that that did not include consciousness, and specifically consciousness as one of the great inventions. And it was in part because I was just curious to know more and I read more for that chapter. I never worked on it, but I’ve always… How can anyone not be interested in the question?
And I was left with the feeling that, A, nobody knows, and B, there are two main schools of thought out there with a big kind of skew in distribution. One of them says, oh, it’s a property of matter. It’s an unknown law of physics. Panpsychism, everything is conscious. The sun is conscious. It’s just a matter… A rock is conscious. It’s just a matter of how much. And I find that very unpersuasive. I can’t say that it’s wrong. It’s just that I think we somehow can tell the difference between something that’s living and something that’s not. And then the other end is it’s an emergent property of a very complex, central nervous system. I never quite understand what people mean by words like emergence. There are genuine examples, but I think we very often tend to-
Speaking to the question of emergence, there’s just technical… There’s an excellent paper on this recently about this phase transition emergence of performance in neural networks on problem of NLP, natural language processing. So language models, there seems to be this question of size. At some point, there is a phase transition as you grow the size of the neural network. So the question is, this is somewhat of a technical question that you can philosophize over.
The technical question is, is there a size of a neural network that starts to be able to form the kind of representations that can capture a language and therefore be able to not just language, but linguistically capture knowledge that’s sufficient to solve a lot of problems in language? Like be able to have a conversation and there seems to be not a gradual increase, but a phase transition and they’re trying to construct the science of where that is, what is a good size of a neural network and why does such a face transition happen. Anyway, that points to emergence that there could be stages where a thing goes from being you’re very intelligent toaster to a toaster that’s feeling sad today and turns away and looks out the window sighing having an existential crisis.
And this is something physical which can be selected over generations that if you get this wrong, it’s linked with this set of circumstances that I’ve just… As an individual, I have a moment of blind panic and run. As a bacterium or something you have some electrical discharge that says blind panic and it runs whatever it may be. And you associate over generations, multiple generations that this electrical phase that I’m in now is associated with a response like that. And it’s easy to see how feelings come in through the back door almost with that kind of giving real-time feedback on your position in the world in relation to how am I doing?
And then you complexify the system and yes, I have no problem with phase transition. And can all of this be done purely by the language, by the issues with how the system understands itself? Maybe it can, I honestly don’t know, but the philosophers for a long time have talked about the possibility that you can have zombie intelligence and that there are no feelings there, but everything else is the same. I mean I have to throw this back to you really. How do you deal with the zombie intelligence?
And somehow you’ve been searching for this feeling, this moment, this person your whole life, that feeling. The philosophers can have a lot of fun with that one. And also say that that’s just… You could have a biological explanation, you could have all kinds of… It’s all fake. It’s actually Ayn Rand will say it’s all selfish. There’s a lot of different interpretations. I’ll leave it to the philosophers. The point is the feeling sure as hell feels very real. And if my toaster makes me feel like it’s the only toaster in the world, and when I leave and I miss the toaster and when I come back, I’m excited to see the toaster and my life is meaningful and joyful and the friends I have around me get a better version of me because that toaster exists. That sure as hell feels-
I’m going to do that. And that can be based on in effect a different currency, which is the currency of feelings and something where we don’t have very much personal control over. And then it comes back around to you and what are you trying to get at with AI? Do we need to have some system which is capable of overriding a rational decision which cannot be made because there’s too much conflicting information by effectively an emotional judgmental decision that just says do this and see what happens? That’s what consciousness is really doing in my view.
So the question to me is if biochemistry is an algorithm, how difficult is it to create a software system that runs the human body, which I think is incorrect? I think that is going to take so long, I mean, that’s going to be centuries from now to be able to reconstruct a human. Now what I would venture to say, to get some of the magic of a human being, what we’re saying with the emotions and the interactions and like a dog makes a smile and joyful and all those kinds of things, that will come much sooner. But that doesn’t require us to reverse engineer the algorithm of biochemistry.
What defines the head, what defines the immune system, what defines the brain, and so on? That really is written in a language that we’re only just beginning to understand. And frankly biologists, most biologists are still very reluctant to even get themselves tangled up in questions like electrical fields influencing development. It seems like mumbo jumbo to a lot of biologists and it should not be because this is the 21st century biology. This is where it’s going, but we’re not going to reverse engineer a human being or the mind or any of these subsystems until we understand how this developmental processes work, how electricity and biology really works, and if it is linked with feelings or with consciousness and so on. In the meantime, we have to try, but I think that’s where the answer lies.
And there’s a much greater membrane potential and it’s formed in, very often parallel Christi, which are capable of reinforcing a field and generating fields over longer distances. And nobody knows if that plays a role in consciousness or not. There’s reasons to argue that it could, but frankly, we simply do not know and it’s not taken into consideration. You look at the structure of the mitochondrial membranes in the brains of simple things like Drosophila, the fruit fly, and they have amazing structures. You can see lots of little rectangular things all lined up in amazing patterns. What are they doing? Why are they like that? We haven’t the first clue.
So by the time it’s fully emerged, it’s already got its shape. And that shape depended on the immediate environment that it was emerging into one letter, one amino acid at a time. And I don’t think that the field was looking at it that way. And if that’s correct, then that’s very characteristic of science, which is to say it asks very often the wrong question and then does really amazingly sophisticated analyses on something having never thought to actually think, well, what is biology doing? And biology is giving you a charged electrical environment that forces you to be this way. Now did DeepMind come up through patterns with some answer that was like that? I’ve got absolutely no idea. It ought to be possible to deduce that from the shapes of proteins. It would require much greater skill than the human mind has. But the human mind is capable of saying, “Well, hang on, let’s look at this exit tunnel and try and work out what shape is this protein going to take.” And we can figure that out.
So you effectively scan the entire genome for any single nucleotide polymorphisms, which is to say a single letter change in one place that has a higher association of being linked with a particular disease or not. And you can come out with thousands of these things across the genome. And if you add them all up and try and say, “Well, so do they add up to explain the known genetic risk of this disease?” And the known genetic risk often comes from twin studies, and you can say that if this twin gets epilepsy, there’s a 40 or 50% risk that the other twin, identical twin, will also get epilepsy. Therefore, the genetic factor is about 50%, and so the gene similarities that you see should account for 50% of that known risk.
Very often, it accounts for less than a 10th of the known risk. And there’s two possible explanations, and there’s one which people tend to do, which is to say, “Ah, well, we don’t have enough statistical power. Maybe there’s a million. We’ve only found a 1,000 of them, but if we find the other million, they’re weakly related, but there’s a huge number of them, and so we’ll account for that whole risk.” Maybe there’s a billion of them, [inaudible 02:12:10]. So that’s one way. The other way is to say, “Well, hang on a minute. You’re missing a system here. That system is the mitochondrial DNA,” which people tend to dismiss, because it’s small and it doesn’t change very much.
But a few single letter changes in that mitochondrial DNA, it controls some really basic processes. It controls not only all the energy that we need to live, and to move around, and do everything we do, but also biosynthesis, to make the new building blocks, to make new cells. And cancer cells very often take over the mitochondria and rewire them, so that instead of using them for making energy, they’re effectively using them as precursors for the building blocks, for biosynthesis. You need to make new amino acids, new nucleotides for DNA. You want to make new lipids to make your membranes and so on. So they kind of rewire metabolism.
Now, the problem is that we’ve got all these interactions between mitochondrial DNA and the genes in the nucleus that are overlooked completely, because people literally throw away the mitochondrial genes, and we can see in fruit flies that they interact and produce big differences in risk. So you can set AI onto this question of exactly how many of these base changes there are, and that’s just one possible solution, that maybe there are a million of them and it does account for the greater part of the risk, or the other one is they aren’t. It’s just not there, that actually the risk lies in something you weren’t even looking at. And this is where human intuition is very important, and there’s this feeling that, “Well, I’m working on this, and I think it’s important, and I’m bloody minded about it.” And in the end, some people are right. It turns out that it was important. Can you get AI to do that, to be bloody minded?
But some of the most enjoyable human aspects is finding a new story that goes to an unexpected place. And again, these are all aspects of what being human means to me. And maybe these are all things that AI figures out for itself, or maybe they’re just aspects… But I just have the feeling sometimes that the people who are trying to understand what we are like, if we wish to craft an AI system which is somehow human-like, that we don’t have a firm enough grasp of what humans really are like, in terms of how we are built,
So he refused, as a typical human, refused to give the system sort of its due, because he came up with a lot of things that a lot of people are extremely impressed by, not just the sheer calculation, but the brilliance of play. So one of the things that it does in really interesting ways is it sacrifices pieces. So in chess, that means you basically take a few steps back in order to take a step forward. You give away pieces for some future reward. And that, for us humans, is where art is in chess. You take big risks that, for us humans, those risks are especially painful, because you have a fog of uncertainty before you. So to take a risk now based on intuition of, “I think this is the right risk to take, but there’s so many possibilities,” that that’s where it takes guts. That’s where art is, that’s that danger.
And then, AlphaZero takes those same kind of risks, and does them even greater degree, but of course, it does it from where you could easily reduce down to a cold calculation over patterns. But boy, when you see the final result, it sure looks like the same kind of magic that we see, and creativity, when we see creative play on the chess board. But the chess board is very limited, and the question is, as we get better and better, can we do that same kind of creativity in mathematics, in programming, and then eventually in biology, psychology, and expand into more and more complex systems?
And it’s amazing. You can run at astonishing speed down a hillside, with no idea how you did it at all. And then, you panic and you think, “I’m going to break my leg if I keep doing this. I’ve got to think about where I’m going to put my foot.” So you slow down a bit and try to bring this conscious mind in, and then you do, you crash. You cannot think consciously while running downhill. And so it’s amazing how many calculations the mind is able to make.
Now, the problem with playing chess or something, if you were able to make all of those subconscious, forward calculations about what is the likely outcome of this move now in the way that we can by running down a hillside or something, it’s partly about what we have adapted to do. It’s partly about the reality of the world that we’re in. Running fast downhill is something that we better be bloody good at, otherwise we’re going to be eaten. Whereas, trying to calculate multiple, multiple moves into the future is not something we’ve ever been called on to do. Two or three, four moves into the future is quite enough for most of us, most of the time.
So from the first appearance of oxygen in the Great Oxidation Event to enough for animals to respire was close to 2 billion years. Why so long? It seems to be planetary factors. It seems to be geology, as much as anything else, and we don’t really know what was going on. So the idea that there’s a kind of an inevitable march towards complexity and sentient life I don’t think is right. Not to say it’s not going to happen, but I think it’s not going to happen often.
To me, there’s a beautiful paradox here. Plants, and animals, and fungi all have exactly the same type of cell, but they all have really different ways of living. So a plant cell is photosynthetic, they started out as algae in the oceans and so on. So think of algal bloom, single-cell things. The basic cell structure that it’s built from is exactly the same, with a couple of small differences. It’s got chloroplasts as well, it’s got a vacuole, it’s got a cell wall, but that’s about it. Pretty much everything else is exactly the same in a plant cell and an animal cell. And yet, the ways of life are completely different. So this cell structure did not evolve in response to different ways of life, different environments. I’m in the ocean doing photosynthesis, I’m on land running around as part of an animal, I’m a fungus in a soil, spinning out long kind of shoots into whatever it may be, mycelium.
So they all have the same underlying cell structure. Why? Almost certainly, it was driven by adaptation to the internal environment, of having these pesky endosymbionts that forced all kinds of change on the host cell. Now, in one way, you could see that as a really good thing, because it may be that there’s some inevitability to this process. It’s as soon as you’ve got endosymbionts, you’re more or less bound to go in that direction. Or, it could be that there’s a huge fluke about it, and it’s almost certain to go wrong in just about every case possible, that the conflict will lead to, effectively, war, leading to death and extinction, and it simply doesn’t work out. So maybe it happened millions of times and it went wrong every time, or maybe it only happened once, and it worked out because it was inevitable. And actually, we simply do not know enough now to say which of those two possibilities is true, but both of them are a bit grim.
The other way to see that question, though, would be to say, “Well, actually the whole beginnings of life lie in deterministic chemistry and thermodynamics, starting with the most likely abundant materials, CO₂, and water, and wet, rocky planet,” and Mars was wet and rocky at the beginning and will, I won’t say inevitably, but potentially almost inevitably come up with a genetic code which is not very far away from the genetic code that we already have. So we see subtle differences in the genetic code, what does it mean? It could be very difficult to interpret.
So that kind of says that the reason that it only happened once is probably because it’s difficult, because the wiring is difficult. But then, it happened at least 2.2 billion years ago, right before the GOE, maybe as long as 3 billion years ago, when some people say there are whiffs of oxygen, there’s just kind of traces in the fossil, in the geochemical record that say maybe there was a bit of oxygen then. That’s really disputed. Some people say it goes all the way back 4 billion years ago, and that it was the common ancestor of life on Earth was photosynthetic. So immediately, you’ve got groups of people who disagree over a 2 billion-year period of time about when it started.
But let’s take the latest date when it’s unequivocal. That’s 2.2 billion years ago, through to around about the time of the Cambrian explosion, when oxygen levels definitely got close to modern levels, which was around about 550 million years ago. So we’ve gone more than one and a half billion years, where the Earth was in stasis. Nothing much changed. It’s known as the Boring Billion, in fact. Probably, stuff was… That was when Eukaryotes arose somewhere in there, but it’s… So this idea that the world is constantly changing, that we’re constantly evolving, that we’re moving up some ramp, it’s a very human idea, but in reality, there are kind of tipping points to a new stable equilibrium, where the cells that are producing oxygen are precisely counterbalanced by the cells that are consuming that oxygen, which is why it’s 21% now and has been that way for hundreds of millions of years. We have a very precise balance.
You go through a tipping point, and you don’t know where the next stable state’s going to be, but it can be a long way from here. And so if we change the world with global warming, there will be a tipping point. Question is where, and when, and what’s the next stable state? It may be uninhabitable to us. It’ll be habitable to life, for sure, but there may be something like the Permian extinction, where 95% of species go extinct, and there’s a 5-to-10 million year gap, and then life recovers, but without humans.
But the issue is, I mean, what the data is showing, we can track roughly how oxygen was going into the atmosphere from carbon isotopes. So there’s two main isotopes of carbon that we need to think about here. One is carbon-12, 99% of carbon is carbon-12, and then 1% of carbon is carbon-13, which is a stable isotope. And then, there’s carbon-14, which is a trivial radioactive, it’s trivial amount. So carbon-13 is 1%, and life and enzymes, generally, you can think of carbon atoms as little balls bouncing around, ping-pong balls bouncing around. Carbon-12 moves a little bit faster than carbon-13.
You can work out historically how much oxygen there must’ve been in the atmosphere by how much carbon was being buried. You think, well, how can we possibly know how much carbon was being buried? The answer is, well, if you’re burying carbon-12, what you’re leaving behind is more Carbon-13 in the oceans, and that precipitates out into limestone. You can look at limestones over these ages and work out what’s the Carbon-13 signal. That gives you a feedback on what the oxygen content.
Right before the Cambrian explosion, there was what’s called a negative isotope anomaly excursion, which is basically the carbon-13 goes down by a massive amount and then back up again 10 million years later. What that seems to be saying is the amount of carbon-12 in the oceans was disappearing, which is to say it was being oxidized. If it’s being oxidized, it’s consuming oxygen and that should … A big carbon-13 signal says the ratio of carbon-12 to carbon-13 is really going down, which means there’s much more carbon-12 being taken out and being oxidized.
Sorry, this is getting too complex, but-
The assumption and this is completely wrong, this assumption is then that evolution works really slowly and that you need billions of years to affect some small change and then another billion years to do something. It’s completely wrong. Evolution gets stuck in a stasis and it stays that way for tens of millions, hundreds of millions of years. Stephen J. Gould used to argue this, he called it punctuated equilibrium, but he was doing it to do with animals and to do with the last 500 million years or so where it’s much less obvious than if you think about the entire planetary history. Then you realize that the first 2 billion years was bacteria only. You have the origin of life, 2 billion years of just bacteria, oxygenic, photosynthesis arising here. Then you have a global catastrophe, snowball Earths, and great oxidation event, and then another billion years of nothing happening, and then some period of upheavals and then another snowball Earth. Then suddenly you see the Cambrian explosion.
This is long periods of stasis where the world is in a stable state and is not geared towards increasing complexity. It’s just everything is in balance. Only when you have a catastrophic level of global level problem, like of snowball Earth, it forces everything out of balance and there’s a tipping point and you end up somewhere else. Now, the idea that evolution is slow is wrong. It can be incredibly fast. I mentioned earlier on that in theory it would take half a million years to invent an eye, for example, from a light sensitive spot. It doesn’t take long to convert one kind of tube into a tube with nobbles on it into a tube with arms on it, and then multiple arms, and then one end is a head with it starts out as a swelling. It’s not difficult intellectually to understand how these things can happen.
It boggles the mind that it can happen so quickly, but we’re used to human time scales. What we need to talk about is generations of things that live for a year in the ocean, and then a million years is a million generations. The amount of change that you can do can affect in that period of time is enormous. We’re dealing with large populations of things where selection is sensitive to pretty small changes. Again, as soon as you throw in the competition of predators and prey and you’re ramping up the scale of evolution, it’s not very surprising that it happens very quickly when the environment allows it to happen.
I don’t think there’s a big mystery. There’s lots of details that need to be filled in. The big mystery in biology is consciousness.
But I think most people will accept if faced with that, that that’s what it is. All of this probability though of complex life. In one way, I think why it matters is that my expectation I suppose is that we will be over the next 100 years or so, if we survive it all, that AI will increasingly dominate. Pretty much anything that we put out into space looking for the universe, for what’s out there will be AI. It won’t be us, we won’t be doing that, or when we do, it will be on a much more limited scale. I suppose the same would apply to any alien civilization.
Perhaps rather than looking for signs of life out there, we should be looking for AI out there, but then we face the problem that I don’t see how a planet is going to give rise directly to AI. I can see how a planet can give rise directly to organic life, and if the principles that govern the evolution of life on Earth apply to other planets as well. I think a lot of them would, then the likelihood of ending up with a human-like civilization capable of giving rise to AI in the first place is massively limited. Once you’ve done it once, perhaps it takes over the universe and maybe there’s no issue, but it seems to me that the two are necessarily linked, that you’re not going to just turn a sterile planet into an AI life form without the intermediary of the organics first.
I think the chances are pretty limited and the chances of us surviving are pretty limited too. The way we’re going on at the moment, the likelihood of us not making ourselves extinct within the next few 100 years, possibly within the next 50 or 100 years seems quite small. I hope we can do better than that. Maybe the only thing that will survive from humanity will be AI and maybe AI once it exists, and once it’s capable of effectively copying itself and cutting humans out of the loop, then maybe that will take over the universe.
Do you think aliens have consciousness?
It’s a novel, but I felt enormously challenged by that novel because it hadn’t occurred to me how limited my thinking was, how narrow-minded I was being. Here was a great physicist with a completely different conception of what life be. Since then, I’ve seen him attacked in various ways. I’m reluctant to say the attacks make more sense to me than the original story, which is to say even in terms of information processing, if you’re on that scale and there’s a limit of the speed of how quickly can something think, if you’re needing to broadcast across the solar system, it is going to be slow.
It’s not going to hold a conversation with you on the timelines that Fred Hoyle was imagining, or at least not by any easy way of doing it, assuming that the speed of light is a limit. Then again, you really can’t. This is something Richard Dawkins argued long ago and I do think he’s right. There is no other way to generate this level of complexity than natural selection. Nothing else can do it. You need populations and you need selection in populations and an isolated interstellar cloud. Again, there’s unlimited time and maybe there’s no problems with distance, but you need to have a certain frequency of generational time to generate a serious level of complexity. I just have a feeling it’s never going to work.
That can work and we know it happens in biology. If this nucleotide, for example, catalyzes CO₂ fixation, then you’re going to increase the rate of flux through the whole system, and you’re going to effectively steepen the driving force to make more nucleotides. This can be inherited because there are forms of membrane heredity that you can have and there are effectively, if a cell divides in two and it’s got a lot of stuff inside it and that stuff is basically bound as a network which is capable of regenerating itself, then it will inevitably regenerate itself.
You can develop greater complexity, but everything that I’ve said depends on the underlying rules of thermodynamics. There is no evolvability about that. It’s simply an inevitable outcome of your starting point, assuming that you’re able to increase the driving force through the system. You will generate more of the same, you’ll expand on what you can do, but you’ll never get anything different than that. It’s only when you introduce information into that as a gene, as a small stretch of RNA, which can be random stretch, then you get real evolvability. Then you get biology as we know it, but you’ll also have selection as we know it.
You open Transformers with “From space, it looks gray and crystalline, obliterating the blue-green colors of the living Earth. It is crisscrossed by regular patterns and convergence striations. There’s a central amorphous density where these scratches seem lighter. This ‘growth’ does not look alive, although it has extended out along some lines and there is something grasping and parasitic about it. Across the globe, there are thousands of them varying in shape and detail, but all of them, gray, angular, inorganic, spreading. Yet at night they light up, glowing up the dark sky, suddenly beautiful. Perhaps these cankers on the landscape are in some sense living. There’s a controlled flow of energy. There must be information and some form of metabolism, some turnover of materials. Are they alive? No, of course not. They are cities.”
Is there some sense that cities are living beings? You think aliens would think of them as living beings?
In that sense, they’re quite biological. There was a plan after the Great Fire of London, Christopher Wren was making plans not only for St. Paul’s Cathedral, but also to rebuild in large Parisian-type boulevards, a large part of the area of central London that was burnt. It never happened because they didn’t have enough money I think, but it’s interesting what was in the plan. There were all these boulevards, but there were no pubs and no coffee houses or anything like that. The reality was London just grew up in a set of jumbled streets.
It was the coffee houses and the pubs where all the business of the City of London was being done. That was where the real life of the city was. No one had planned it. The whole thing was unplanned and works much better that way. In that sense, the cell is completely unplanned. It’s not controlled by the genes in the nucleus in the way that we might like to think that it is, but it’s an evolved entity that has the same flux, the same animation, the same life. I think it’s a beautiful analogy, but I wouldn’t get too stuck with it as a metaphor.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:09 – Origin of life
- 14:56 – Panspermia
- 20:30 – What is life?
- 33:44 – Photosynthesis
- 37:19 – Prokaryotic vs eukaryotic cells
- 47:20 – Sex
- 55:03 – DNA
- 1:02:15 – Violence
- 1:12:50 – Human evolution
- 1:18:45 – Neanderthals
- 1:22:18 – Sensory inputs
- 1:33:08 – Consciousness
- 2:04:41 – AI and biology
- 2:34:00 – Evolution
- 2:54:32 – Fermi paradox
- 3:07:52 – Cities
- 3:15:39 – Depression
- 3:18:14 – Writing
- 3:26:13 – Advice for young people
- 3:33:22 – Earth
Introduction
Nick Lane
Well, the source of energy at the origin of life is the reaction between carbon dioxide and hydrogen. And amazingly, most of these reactions are exergonic, which is to say they release energy. If you have hydrogen and CO2, and you put them together in a Falcon tube and you warm it up to, say, 50 degrees centigrade, and you put in a couple of catalysts and you shake it, nothing’s going to happen. But thermodynamically that is less stable. Two gases, hydrogen and CO2, is less stable than cells. What should happen is you get cells coming out. Why doesn’t that happen is because of the kinetic barriers. That’s where you need the spark.
Well, the source of energy at the origin of life is the reaction between carbon dioxide and hydrogen. And amazingly, most of these reactions are exergonic, which is to say they release energy. If you have hydrogen and CO2, and you put them together in a Falcon tube and you warm it up to, say, 50 degrees centigrade, and you put in a couple of catalysts and you shake it, nothing’s going to happen. But thermodynamically that is less stable. Two gases, hydrogen and CO2, is less stable than cells. What should happen is you get cells coming out. Why doesn’t that happen is because of the kinetic barriers. That’s where you need the spark.
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Nick Lane, a biochemist at University College London, and author of some of my favorite books on biology, science, and life ever written, including his two most recent titles, Transformer: The Deep Chemistry of Life and Death, and The Vital Question: Why Is Life the Way It Is? This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Nick Lane.
The following is a conversation with Nick Lane, a biochemist at University College London, and author of some of my favorite books on biology, science, and life ever written, including his two most recent titles, Transformer: The Deep Chemistry of Life and Death, and The Vital Question: Why Is Life the Way It Is? This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here’s Nick Lane.
Origin of life
Lex Fridman
Let’s start with perhaps the most mysterious, the most interesting question that we little humans can ask of ourselves. How did life originate on earth?
Let’s start with perhaps the most mysterious, the most interesting question that we little humans can ask of ourselves. How did life originate on earth?
Nick Lane
You could ask anybody working on the subject, and you’ll get a different answer from all of them. They will be pretty passionately held opinions, and they’re opinions grounded in science, but they’re still really at this point, they’re opinions. Because there’s so much stuff to know, that all we can ever do is get a small slice of it, and it’s the context which matters. So, I can give you my answer. My answer is, from a biologist’s point of view, that has been missing from the equation over decades, which is: well, what does life do on earth? Why is it this way? Why is it made of cells? Why is it made of carbon? Why is it powered by electrical charges on membranes? There’s all these interesting questions about cells, that if you then look to see: well, is there an environment on earth, on the early earth 4 billion years ago that kind of matches the requirements of cells?
You could ask anybody working on the subject, and you’ll get a different answer from all of them. They will be pretty passionately held opinions, and they’re opinions grounded in science, but they’re still really at this point, they’re opinions. Because there’s so much stuff to know, that all we can ever do is get a small slice of it, and it’s the context which matters. So, I can give you my answer. My answer is, from a biologist’s point of view, that has been missing from the equation over decades, which is: well, what does life do on earth? Why is it this way? Why is it made of cells? Why is it made of carbon? Why is it powered by electrical charges on membranes? There’s all these interesting questions about cells, that if you then look to see: well, is there an environment on earth, on the early earth 4 billion years ago that kind of matches the requirements of cells?
Well, there is one. There’s a very obvious one. It’s basically created by whenever you have a wet rocky planet, you get these hydrothermal vents, which generate hydrogen gas in bucket loads and electrical charges on kind of cell-like pores that can drive the kind of chemistry that life does. So, it seems so beautiful and so obvious, that I’ve spent the last 10 years or more trying to do experiments. It turns out to be difficult, of course. Everything’s more difficult than you ever thought it was going to be, but it looks, I would say, more true rather than less true over that ten-year period. I think I have to take a step back every now and then and think, “Hang on a minute. Where is this going?” I’m happy it’s going in a sensible direction.
And I think then you have these other interesting dilemmas. I’m often accused of being too focused on life on earth, too kind of narrow-minded and inward looking, you might say. I’m talking about carbon, I’m talking about cells. And maybe you or plenty of people can say to me, “Oh, yeah, but life can be anything. I have no imagination.” And maybe they’re right, but unless we can say why life here is this way, and if those reasons are fundamental reasons or if they’re just trivial reasons, then we can’t answer that question. So, I think they’re fundamental reasons, and I think we need to worry about them.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there might be some deep truth to the puzzle here on earth that will resonate with other puzzles elsewhere that will… solving this particular puzzle will give us that deeper truth. So, what do this puzzle… You said vents, hydrogen, wet. So, chemically, what is the potion here? How important is oxygen? You wrote a book about this.
Yeah, there might be some deep truth to the puzzle here on earth that will resonate with other puzzles elsewhere that will… solving this particular puzzle will give us that deeper truth. So, what do this puzzle… You said vents, hydrogen, wet. So, chemically, what is the potion here? How important is oxygen? You wrote a book about this.
Nick Lane
Yeah. And I actually just came straight here from a conference where I was chairing a session on whether oxygen matters or not in the history of life. Of course, it matters, but it matters most to the origin of life to be not there. As I see it, we have this… Life is made of carbon basically, primarily, organic molecules with carbon-carbon bonds. And the building block, the Lego brick that we take out of the air or take out of the oceans is carbon dioxide. And to turn carbon dioxide into organic molecules, we need to strap on hydrogen. And so we need… And this is basically what life is doing, it’s hydrogenating carbon dioxide. It’s taking the hydrogen that bubbles out of the earth in these hydrothermal vents, and it sticks it on CO2. And it’s kind of really as simple as that. And actually thermodynamically, the thing that I find most troubling is that if you do these experiments in the lab, the molecules you get are exactly the molecules that we see at the heart of biochemistry and the heart of life.
Yeah. And I actually just came straight here from a conference where I was chairing a session on whether oxygen matters or not in the history of life. Of course, it matters, but it matters most to the origin of life to be not there. As I see it, we have this… Life is made of carbon basically, primarily, organic molecules with carbon-carbon bonds. And the building block, the Lego brick that we take out of the air or take out of the oceans is carbon dioxide. And to turn carbon dioxide into organic molecules, we need to strap on hydrogen. And so we need… And this is basically what life is doing, it’s hydrogenating carbon dioxide. It’s taking the hydrogen that bubbles out of the earth in these hydrothermal vents, and it sticks it on CO2. And it’s kind of really as simple as that. And actually thermodynamically, the thing that I find most troubling is that if you do these experiments in the lab, the molecules you get are exactly the molecules that we see at the heart of biochemistry and the heart of life.
Lex Fridman
Is there something to be said about the earliest origins of that little potion, that chemical process? What really is the spark there?
Is there something to be said about the earliest origins of that little potion, that chemical process? What really is the spark there?
Nick Lane
There isn’t a spark. There is a continuous chemical reaction. And there is kind of a spark, but it’s a continuous electrical charge, which helps drive that reaction.
There isn’t a spark. There is a continuous chemical reaction. And there is kind of a spark, but it’s a continuous electrical charge, which helps drive that reaction.
Lex Fridman
So, literally spark.
So, literally spark.
Nick Lane
Well, the charge at least. But yes, a spark in that sense is… We tend to think in terms of Frankenstein. We tend to think in terms of electricity, and one moment you zap something and it comes alive. And what does that really mean? It’s come alive. And now what’s sustaining it? Well, we are sustained by oxygen, by this continuous chemical reaction. And if you put a plastic bag on your head, then you’ve got a minute or something before it’s all over.
Well, the charge at least. But yes, a spark in that sense is… We tend to think in terms of Frankenstein. We tend to think in terms of electricity, and one moment you zap something and it comes alive. And what does that really mean? It’s come alive. And now what’s sustaining it? Well, we are sustained by oxygen, by this continuous chemical reaction. And if you put a plastic bag on your head, then you’ve got a minute or something before it’s all over.
Lex Fridman
So, it’s some way of being able to leverage a source of energy?
So, it’s some way of being able to leverage a source of energy?
Nick Lane
Well, the source of energy at the origin of life is the reaction between carbon dioxide and hydrogen. And amazingly, most of these reactions are exergonic, which is to say they release energy. If you have hydrogen and CO2 and you put them together in a Falcon tube and you warm it up to say 50 degrees centigrade, and you put in a couple of catalysts and you shake it, nothing’s going to happen. But thermodynamically that is less stable, two gases, hydrogen and CO2, is less stable than cells. What should happen is you get cells coming out. So, why doesn’t that happen? It’s because of the kinetic barriers. That’s where you need the spark.
Well, the source of energy at the origin of life is the reaction between carbon dioxide and hydrogen. And amazingly, most of these reactions are exergonic, which is to say they release energy. If you have hydrogen and CO2 and you put them together in a Falcon tube and you warm it up to say 50 degrees centigrade, and you put in a couple of catalysts and you shake it, nothing’s going to happen. But thermodynamically that is less stable, two gases, hydrogen and CO2, is less stable than cells. What should happen is you get cells coming out. So, why doesn’t that happen? It’s because of the kinetic barriers. That’s where you need the spark.
Lex Fridman
Is it possible that life originated multiple times on earth? The way you describe it, you make it sound so easy.
Is it possible that life originated multiple times on earth? The way you describe it, you make it sound so easy.
Nick Lane
There’s a long distance to go from those first bits of prebiotic chemistry to, say, molecular machines, like ribosomes.
There’s a long distance to go from those first bits of prebiotic chemistry to, say, molecular machines, like ribosomes.
Lex Fridman
Is that the first thing that you would say is life? If I introduce the two of you at a party, you would say that’s a living thing?
Is that the first thing that you would say is life? If I introduce the two of you at a party, you would say that’s a living thing?
Nick Lane
I would say as soon as we introduce genes information into systems that are growing anyway, so I would talk about growing protocells, as soon as we introduce even random bits of information into there. I’m thinking about RNA molecules, for example. It doesn’t have to have any information in it. It can be completely random sequence, but if it’s introduced into a system which is in any case growing and doubling itself and reproducing itself, then any changes in that sequence that allow it to do so better or worse are now selected by perfectly normal natural selection.
I would say as soon as we introduce genes information into systems that are growing anyway, so I would talk about growing protocells, as soon as we introduce even random bits of information into there. I’m thinking about RNA molecules, for example. It doesn’t have to have any information in it. It can be completely random sequence, but if it’s introduced into a system which is in any case growing and doubling itself and reproducing itself, then any changes in that sequence that allow it to do so better or worse are now selected by perfectly normal natural selection.
Lex Fridman
But it’s a system-
But it’s a system-
Nick Lane
So, that’s when it becomes alive to my mind.
So, that’s when it becomes alive to my mind.
Lex Fridman
… that’s encompassed into an object, that keeps information, and evolves that information over time or changes that information over time.
… that’s encompassed into an object, that keeps information, and evolves that information over time or changes that information over time.
Nick Lane
Yes, exactly.
Yes, exactly.
Lex Fridman
In response to the enzymes.
In response to the enzymes.
Nick Lane
So, it’s always part of a cell system from the very beginning.
So, it’s always part of a cell system from the very beginning.
Lex Fridman
So, is your sense that it started only once because it’s difficult or is it possible it started in multiple occasions on earth?
So, is your sense that it started only once because it’s difficult or is it possible it started in multiple occasions on earth?
Nick Lane
It’s possible it started multiple occasions. There’s two provisos to that. One of them is oxygen makes it impossible really for life to start. So, as soon as we’ve got oxygen in the atmosphere, then life isn’t going to keep starting over. So, I often get asked by people, “Why can’t we have life starting? If it’s so easy, why can’t life start in these vents now?” And the answer is, if you want hydrogen to react with CO2 and there’s oxygen there, hydrogen reacts with oxygen instead. You get an explosive reaction that way. It’s rocket fuel. So, it’s never going to happen. But for the origin of life earlier than that, all we know is that there’s a single common ancestor for all of life. There could have been multiple origins, and they all just disappeared.
It’s possible it started multiple occasions. There’s two provisos to that. One of them is oxygen makes it impossible really for life to start. So, as soon as we’ve got oxygen in the atmosphere, then life isn’t going to keep starting over. So, I often get asked by people, “Why can’t we have life starting? If it’s so easy, why can’t life start in these vents now?” And the answer is, if you want hydrogen to react with CO2 and there’s oxygen there, hydrogen reacts with oxygen instead. You get an explosive reaction that way. It’s rocket fuel. So, it’s never going to happen. But for the origin of life earlier than that, all we know is that there’s a single common ancestor for all of life. There could have been multiple origins, and they all just disappeared.
But there’s a very interesting deep split in life between bacteria and what are called archaea, which look just the same as bacteria. And they’re not quite as diverse, but nearly, and they are very different in their biochemistry. And so any explanation for the origin of life has to account, as well, for why they’re so different and yet so similar. And that makes me think that life probably did arise only once.
Lex Fridman
Can you describe the difference that’s interesting there, how they’re similar, how they’re different?
Can you describe the difference that’s interesting there, how they’re similar, how they’re different?
Nick Lane
Well, they’re different in their membranes primarily. They’re different in things like DNA replication. They use completely different enzymes, and the genes behind it for replicating DNA.
Well, they’re different in their membranes primarily. They’re different in things like DNA replication. They use completely different enzymes, and the genes behind it for replicating DNA.
Lex Fridman
So, they both have membranes, both have DNA replication.
So, they both have membranes, both have DNA replication.
Nick Lane
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
The process of that is different.
The process of that is different.
Nick Lane
They both have DNA. The genetic code is identical in them both. The way in which it’s transcribed into RNA, into the copy of a gene, and the way that that’s then translated into a protein, that’s all basically the same in both these groups, so they clearly share a common ancestor. It’s just that they’re different in fundamental ways as well. And if you think about, “Well, what kind of processes could drive that divergence very early on?” I can think about it in terms of membranes, in terms of the electrical charges on membranes, and it’s that makes me think that there were probably many unsuccessful attempts and only one really successful attempt.
They both have DNA. The genetic code is identical in them both. The way in which it’s transcribed into RNA, into the copy of a gene, and the way that that’s then translated into a protein, that’s all basically the same in both these groups, so they clearly share a common ancestor. It’s just that they’re different in fundamental ways as well. And if you think about, “Well, what kind of processes could drive that divergence very early on?” I can think about it in terms of membranes, in terms of the electrical charges on membranes, and it’s that makes me think that there were probably many unsuccessful attempts and only one really successful attempt.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain why that divergence makes you think there’s one common ancestor? Can you describe that intuition? I’m a little bit unclear about why the leap from the divergence means there’s one. Do you mean the divergence indicates that there was a big invention at that time from one source?
Can you explain why that divergence makes you think there’s one common ancestor? Can you describe that intuition? I’m a little bit unclear about why the leap from the divergence means there’s one. Do you mean the divergence indicates that there was a big invention at that time from one source?
Nick Lane
Yes. As I imagine it, you have a common ancestor living in a hydrothermal vent. Let’s say there are millions of vents and millions of potential common ancestors living in all of those vents, but only one of them makes it out first. Then you could imagine that that cell is then going to take over the world and wipe out everything else. And so what you would see would be a single common ancestor for all of life, but with lots of different vent systems, all vying to create the first life forms, you might say.
Yes. As I imagine it, you have a common ancestor living in a hydrothermal vent. Let’s say there are millions of vents and millions of potential common ancestors living in all of those vents, but only one of them makes it out first. Then you could imagine that that cell is then going to take over the world and wipe out everything else. And so what you would see would be a single common ancestor for all of life, but with lots of different vent systems, all vying to create the first life forms, you might say.
Lex Fridman
So, this thing is a cell, a single-cell organism?
So, this thing is a cell, a single-cell organism?
Nick Lane
Well, we’re always talking about populations of cells, but yes, these are single-celled organisms.
Well, we’re always talking about populations of cells, but yes, these are single-celled organisms.
Lex Fridman
But the fundamental life form is a single cell. So, they’re always together, but they’re alone together. There’s a machinery in each one individual component, that if left by itself would still work, right?
But the fundamental life form is a single cell. So, they’re always together, but they’re alone together. There’s a machinery in each one individual component, that if left by itself would still work, right?
Nick Lane
Yes, yes, yes. It’s the unit of selection is a single cell. But selection operates over generations and changes over generations in populations of cells, so it would be impossible to say that a cell is the unit of selection in the sense that unless you have a population, you can’t evolve, you can’t change.
Yes, yes, yes. It’s the unit of selection is a single cell. But selection operates over generations and changes over generations in populations of cells, so it would be impossible to say that a cell is the unit of selection in the sense that unless you have a population, you can’t evolve, you can’t change.
Lex Fridman
Right, but there was one Chuck Norris, that’s an American reference, cell that made it out of the vents or the first one?
Right, but there was one Chuck Norris, that’s an American reference, cell that made it out of the vents or the first one?
Nick Lane
So, imagine then that there’s one cell gets out and it takes over the world.
So, imagine then that there’s one cell gets out and it takes over the world.
Lex Fridman
It gets out in the water. It’s floating around.
It gets out in the water. It’s floating around.
Nick Lane
Well, deep in the ocean somewhere. But actually two cells got out. And they appear to have got out from the same vent because they both share the same code and everything else. So unless all… We’ve got a million different common ancestors in all these different vents, so either they all have the same code, and two cells spontaneously emerged from different places, or two different cells, fundamentally different cells, came from the same place. So, either way, what are the constraints that say, “Not just one came out or not half a million came out, but two came out.”? That’s kind of a bit strange. So, how did they come out? Well, they come out because what you’re doing inside a vent is you’re relying on the electrical charges down there to power this reaction between hydrogen and CO2 to make yourself grow.
Well, deep in the ocean somewhere. But actually two cells got out. And they appear to have got out from the same vent because they both share the same code and everything else. So unless all… We’ve got a million different common ancestors in all these different vents, so either they all have the same code, and two cells spontaneously emerged from different places, or two different cells, fundamentally different cells, came from the same place. So, either way, what are the constraints that say, “Not just one came out or not half a million came out, but two came out.”? That’s kind of a bit strange. So, how did they come out? Well, they come out because what you’re doing inside a vent is you’re relying on the electrical charges down there to power this reaction between hydrogen and CO2 to make yourself grow.
And when you leave the vent, you’ve got to do that yourself. You’ve got to power up your own membrane. And so the question is: well, how do you power up your own membrane? And the answer is, well, you need to pump. You need to pump ions to give an electrical charge on the membrane. So, what do the pumps look like? Well, the pumps look different in these two groups. It’s as if they both emerge from a common ancestor, and as soon as you’ve got that ancestor, things move very quickly and divergently. Why does the DNA replication look different? Well, it’s joined to the membrane. The membranes are different. The DNA replication is different because it’s joined to a different kind of membrane. So, there’s interesting… This is detail you may say, but it’s also fundamental because it’s about the two big divergent groups of life on earth that seemed to have diverged really early on.
Lex Fridman
It all started from one organism, and then that organism just start replicating the heck out of itself with some mutation of the DNA. So, there’s a competition through the process of evolution. They’re not trying to beat each other up. They’re just trying to live life.
It all started from one organism, and then that organism just start replicating the heck out of itself with some mutation of the DNA. So, there’s a competition through the process of evolution. They’re not trying to beat each other up. They’re just trying to live life.
Nick Lane
They are just replicators.
They are just replicators.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Well, let’s not minimize their… They’re just trying to chill. They’re trying to relax up in the… But there’s no sense of trying to survive. They’re replicating-
Yeah. Well, let’s not minimize their… They’re just trying to chill. They’re trying to relax up in the… But there’s no sense of trying to survive. They’re replicating-
Nick Lane
There’s no sense in which they’re trying to do anything. They’re just kind of an outgrowth of the earth, you might say.
There’s no sense in which they’re trying to do anything. They’re just kind of an outgrowth of the earth, you might say.
Lex Fridman
Of course, the aliens would describe us humans in that same way.
Of course, the aliens would describe us humans in that same way.
Nick Lane
They might be right.
They might be right.
Lex Fridman
It’s primitive life. It’s just ants that are hairless or mostly hairless.
It’s primitive life. It’s just ants that are hairless or mostly hairless.
Nick Lane
Overgrown ants.
Overgrown ants.
Panspermia
Lex Fridman
Overgrown ants. Okay. What do you think about the idea of panspermia, the theory that life did not originate on earth and was planted here from outer space or pseudo-panspermia, which is like the basic ingredients, the magic that you mentioned was planted here from elsewhere in space?
Overgrown ants. Okay. What do you think about the idea of panspermia, the theory that life did not originate on earth and was planted here from outer space or pseudo-panspermia, which is like the basic ingredients, the magic that you mentioned was planted here from elsewhere in space?
Nick Lane
I don’t find them helpful. That’s not to say they’re wrong. So pseudo-transpermia, the idea that the chemicals, the amino acids, the nucleotides are being delivered from space. Well, we know that happens. It’s unequivocal. They’re delivered on meteorites, comets and so on. So, what do they do next? That’s, to me, the question. Well, what they do is they stock a soup, presumably they land in a pond or in an ocean or wherever they land. And then a best possible case scenario is you end up with a soup of nucleotides and amino acids. And then you have to say, “So now what happens?”
I don’t find them helpful. That’s not to say they’re wrong. So pseudo-transpermia, the idea that the chemicals, the amino acids, the nucleotides are being delivered from space. Well, we know that happens. It’s unequivocal. They’re delivered on meteorites, comets and so on. So, what do they do next? That’s, to me, the question. Well, what they do is they stock a soup, presumably they land in a pond or in an ocean or wherever they land. And then a best possible case scenario is you end up with a soup of nucleotides and amino acids. And then you have to say, “So now what happens?”
And the answer is, “Oh, well, they have to go ‘bloop’ and become alive.” So, how did they do that? You may as well say that a miracle happened. I don’t believe in soup. I think what we have in a vent is a continuous conversion, a continuous growth, a continuous reaction, a continuous converting a flow of molecules into more of yourself, you might say, even if it’s a small bit. So, you’ve got a kind of continuous self-organization and growth from the very beginning. You never have that in a soup.
Lex Fridman
Isn’t the entire universe and living organisms in the universe, isn’t it just soup all the way down? Isn’t it all soup?
Isn’t the entire universe and living organisms in the universe, isn’t it just soup all the way down? Isn’t it all soup?
Nick Lane
No, no, soup almost by definition doesn’t have a structure.
No, no, soup almost by definition doesn’t have a structure.
Lex Fridman
But soup is a collection of ingredients that are randomly [inaudible 00:16:34].
But soup is a collection of ingredients that are randomly [inaudible 00:16:34].
Nick Lane
But they’re not random. We have chemistry going on here. We have membranes forming which are effectively oil-water interactions.
But they’re not random. We have chemistry going on here. We have membranes forming which are effectively oil-water interactions.
Lex Fridman
There’s a process going on. Okay, so it feels like there’s a direction to a… directed process.
There’s a process going on. Okay, so it feels like there’s a direction to a… directed process.
Nick Lane
There are directions to processes, yeah. And if you’re starting with CO2, and you’ve got two reactive fluids being brought together and they react, what are they going to make? Well, they make carboxylic acids, which include the fatty acids that make up the cell membranes. And they form directly into bilayer membranes. They form like soap bubbles. It’s spontaneous organization caused by the nature of the molecules. And those things are capable of growing and are capable, in effect, of being selected. Even before there are genes, we have this. So, we have a lot of order, and that order is coming from thermodynamics. And the thermodynamics is always about increasing the entropy of the universe, but if you have oil and water and they’re separating, you are increasing the entropy of the universe, even though you’ve got some order, which is the soap and the water are not miscible.
There are directions to processes, yeah. And if you’re starting with CO2, and you’ve got two reactive fluids being brought together and they react, what are they going to make? Well, they make carboxylic acids, which include the fatty acids that make up the cell membranes. And they form directly into bilayer membranes. They form like soap bubbles. It’s spontaneous organization caused by the nature of the molecules. And those things are capable of growing and are capable, in effect, of being selected. Even before there are genes, we have this. So, we have a lot of order, and that order is coming from thermodynamics. And the thermodynamics is always about increasing the entropy of the universe, but if you have oil and water and they’re separating, you are increasing the entropy of the universe, even though you’ve got some order, which is the soap and the water are not miscible.
To come back to your first question about panspermia properly, that just pushes the question somewhere else, even if it’s true. Maybe life did start on Earth by panspermia, but so what are the principles that govern the emergence of life on any planet? It’s an assumption that life started here, and it’s an assumption that it started in a hydrothermal vent or it started in a terrestrial geothermal system. The question is: can we work out a testable sequence of events that would lead from one to the other one? And then test it, and see if there’s any truth in it or not. With panspermia, you can’t do any of that.
Lex Fridman
But the fundamental question of panspermia is: do we have the machine here on earth to build life?
But the fundamental question of panspermia is: do we have the machine here on earth to build life?
Nick Lane
Not yet.
Not yet.
Lex Fridman
Is the vents enough? Is oxygen and hydrogen, and whatever the heck else we want, and some source of energy and heat, is that enough to build life?
Is the vents enough? Is oxygen and hydrogen, and whatever the heck else we want, and some source of energy and heat, is that enough to build life?
Nick Lane
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Well, of course you would say that as a human, but there could be aliens right now chuckling at that idea. Maybe you need some special sauce, special elsewhere sauce. So, your sense is we have everything here.
Well, of course you would say that as a human, but there could be aliens right now chuckling at that idea. Maybe you need some special sauce, special elsewhere sauce. So, your sense is we have everything here.
Nick Lane
This is precisely the question. When I’m talking in schools, I like to start out with the idea of: we can make a time machine. We go back 4 billion years, and we go to these environments that people talk about. We go to a deep sea hydrothermal vent, we go to a kind of Yellowstone Park type place/environment, and we find some slime that looks like we can test it. It’s made of organic molecules. It’s got a structure which is not obviously cells, but is this a stepping stone on the way to life or not? How do we know? Unless we’ve got an intellectual framework that says, “This is a stepping stone, and that’s not a step…” We’d never know. We wouldn’t know which environment to go to, what to look for, how to say this. So, all we can ever hope for, because we’re never going to build that time machine, is to have an intellectual framework that can explain step by step, experiment by experiment, how we go from a sterile inorganic planet to living cells as we know them.
This is precisely the question. When I’m talking in schools, I like to start out with the idea of: we can make a time machine. We go back 4 billion years, and we go to these environments that people talk about. We go to a deep sea hydrothermal vent, we go to a kind of Yellowstone Park type place/environment, and we find some slime that looks like we can test it. It’s made of organic molecules. It’s got a structure which is not obviously cells, but is this a stepping stone on the way to life or not? How do we know? Unless we’ve got an intellectual framework that says, “This is a stepping stone, and that’s not a step…” We’d never know. We wouldn’t know which environment to go to, what to look for, how to say this. So, all we can ever hope for, because we’re never going to build that time machine, is to have an intellectual framework that can explain step by step, experiment by experiment, how we go from a sterile inorganic planet to living cells as we know them.
And in that framework, every time you have a choice, it could be this way or it could be that way, or there’s lots of possible forks down that road, did it have to be that way? Could it have been the other way, and would that have given you life with very different properties? And so if you come up with… It’s a long hypothesis, because as I say, we’re going from really simple prebiotic chemistry all the way through to genes and molecular machines. That’s a long, long pathway. And nobody in the field would agree on the order in which these things happened, which is not a bad thing because it means that you have to go out and do some experiments and try and demonstrate that it’s possible or not possible.
What is life?
Lex Fridman
It’s so freaking amazing that it happened though. It feels like there’s a direction to the thing. Can you try to answer from a framework of: what is life? So, you said there’s some order and yet there’s complexity, so it’s not perfectly ordered, it’s not boring. There’s still some fun in it. And it also feels like the processes have a direction through the selection mechanism. They seem to be building something, always better, always improving. Maybe it’s-
It’s so freaking amazing that it happened though. It feels like there’s a direction to the thing. Can you try to answer from a framework of: what is life? So, you said there’s some order and yet there’s complexity, so it’s not perfectly ordered, it’s not boring. There’s still some fun in it. And it also feels like the processes have a direction through the selection mechanism. They seem to be building something, always better, always improving. Maybe it’s-
Nick Lane
That’s a perception.
That’s a perception.
Lex Fridman
That’s our romanticization of things are always better. Things are getting better. We’d like to believe that.
That’s our romanticization of things are always better. Things are getting better. We’d like to believe that.
Nick Lane
You think about the world from the point of view of bacteria, and bacteria are the first things to emerge from whatever environment they came from, and they dominated the planet very, very quickly, and they haven’t really changed. 4 billion years later they look exactly the same.
You think about the world from the point of view of bacteria, and bacteria are the first things to emerge from whatever environment they came from, and they dominated the planet very, very quickly, and they haven’t really changed. 4 billion years later they look exactly the same.
Lex Fridman
So, about 4 billion years ago, bacteria started to really run the show, and then nothing happened for a while?
So, about 4 billion years ago, bacteria started to really run the show, and then nothing happened for a while?
Nick Lane
Nothing happened for 2 billion years. Then after 2 billion years, we see another single event, origin, if you like, of our own type of cell, the eukaryotic cells, so cells with a nucleus and lots of stuff going on inside. Another singular origin. It only happened once in the history of life on earth. Maybe it happened multiple times, and there’s no evidence everything just disappeared. But we have to at least take it seriously that there’s something that stops bacteria from becoming more complex, because they didn’t. That’s a fact, that they emerged 4 billion years ago, and something happened 2 billion years ago, but the bacteria themselves didn’t change. They remain bacterial. So, there is no necessary trajectory towards great complexity in human beings at the end of it. It’s very easy to imagine that without photosynthesis arising or without eukaryotes arising, that the planet could be full of bacteria and nothing else.
Nothing happened for 2 billion years. Then after 2 billion years, we see another single event, origin, if you like, of our own type of cell, the eukaryotic cells, so cells with a nucleus and lots of stuff going on inside. Another singular origin. It only happened once in the history of life on earth. Maybe it happened multiple times, and there’s no evidence everything just disappeared. But we have to at least take it seriously that there’s something that stops bacteria from becoming more complex, because they didn’t. That’s a fact, that they emerged 4 billion years ago, and something happened 2 billion years ago, but the bacteria themselves didn’t change. They remain bacterial. So, there is no necessary trajectory towards great complexity in human beings at the end of it. It’s very easy to imagine that without photosynthesis arising or without eukaryotes arising, that the planet could be full of bacteria and nothing else.
Lex Fridman
But we’ll get to that, because that’s a brilliant invention, and there’s a few brilliant inventions along the way. But what is life? If you were to show up on earth, but take that time machine, and you said, asking yourself the question, “Is this a stepping stone towards life?” As you step along when you see the early bacteria, how would you know it’s life? And then this is a really important question when you go to other planets and look for life: what is the framework of telling a difference between a rock and a bacteria?
But we’ll get to that, because that’s a brilliant invention, and there’s a few brilliant inventions along the way. But what is life? If you were to show up on earth, but take that time machine, and you said, asking yourself the question, “Is this a stepping stone towards life?” As you step along when you see the early bacteria, how would you know it’s life? And then this is a really important question when you go to other planets and look for life: what is the framework of telling a difference between a rock and a bacteria?
Nick Lane
The question’s kind of both impossible to answer and trivial at the same time. And I don’t like to answer it because I don’t think there is an answer. I think we’re trying to describe-
The question’s kind of both impossible to answer and trivial at the same time. And I don’t like to answer it because I don’t think there is an answer. I think we’re trying to describe-
Lex Fridman
Those are the most fun questions. What do you mean, there’s no answer?
Those are the most fun questions. What do you mean, there’s no answer?
Nick Lane
There is no answer. There’s lot… There are at least 40 or 50 different definitions of life out there, and most of them are, well-
There is no answer. There’s lot… There are at least 40 or 50 different definitions of life out there, and most of them are, well-
Lex Fridman
Not convincing.
Not convincing.
Nick Lane
… obviously bad in one way or another. I can never remember the exact words that people use, but there’s NASA working definition of life, which more or less says, “A self-sustaining system capable of evolution,” or something along those lines. And I immediately have a problem with the words self-sustaining, because it’s sustained by the environment. And I know what they’re getting at. I know what they’re trying to say, but I pick a hole in that. And there’s always wags who say, “But by that definition, a rabbit is not alive. Only a pair of rabbits would be alive because a single rabbit is incapable of copying itself.” There are all kinds of pedantic, silly, but also important objections to any hypothesis.
… obviously bad in one way or another. I can never remember the exact words that people use, but there’s NASA working definition of life, which more or less says, “A self-sustaining system capable of evolution,” or something along those lines. And I immediately have a problem with the words self-sustaining, because it’s sustained by the environment. And I know what they’re getting at. I know what they’re trying to say, but I pick a hole in that. And there’s always wags who say, “But by that definition, a rabbit is not alive. Only a pair of rabbits would be alive because a single rabbit is incapable of copying itself.” There are all kinds of pedantic, silly, but also important objections to any hypothesis.
The real question is: what is… We can argue all day, or people do argue all day about: is a virus alive or not? And it depends on the content. In fact, most biologists could not agree about that. So, then what about a jumping gene, a retro element or something like that? It’s even simpler than a virus, but it’s capable of converting its environment into a copy of itself. And that’s about as close… This is not a definition, but this is a kind of description of life, is that it’s able to parasitize the environment, and that goes for plants as well as animals and bacteria and viruses, to make a relatively exact copy of themselves, informationally exact copy of themselves.
Lex Fridman
By the way, it doesn’t really have to be a copy of itself, it just has to be… you have to create something that’s interesting. The way evolution is, so it is extremely powerful process of evolution, which is basically make a copy of yourself and sometimes mess up a little bit.
By the way, it doesn’t really have to be a copy of itself, it just has to be… you have to create something that’s interesting. The way evolution is, so it is extremely powerful process of evolution, which is basically make a copy of yourself and sometimes mess up a little bit.
Nick Lane
Yes. Absolutely.
Yes. Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
Okay. That seems to work really well. I wonder if it’s possible to-
Okay. That seems to work really well. I wonder if it’s possible to-
Nick Lane
Mess up big time?
Mess up big time?
Lex Fridman
Mess up big time as a standard, as the default.
Mess up big time as a standard, as the default.
Nick Lane
It’s called the hopeful monster, and-
It’s called the hopeful monster, and-
Lex Fridman
It doesn’t work?
It doesn’t work?
Nick Lane
In principle, it can. Actually, it turns out, I would say that this is due a reemergence. There’s some amazing work from Michael Levin. I don’t know if you came across him, but if you haven’t interviewed him, you should interview him.
In principle, it can. Actually, it turns out, I would say that this is due a reemergence. There’s some amazing work from Michael Levin. I don’t know if you came across him, but if you haven’t interviewed him, you should interview him.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, in Boston. I’m talking to him in a few days.
Yeah, in Boston. I’m talking to him in a few days.
Nick Lane
Oh, fantastic.
Oh, fantastic.
Lex Fridman
So I mentioned off… There’s two people that, if I may mention. Andrej Karpathy is a friend who’s really admired in the AI community, said, “You absolutely must talk to Michael and to Nick.” So, of course I’m a huge fan of yours, so I’m really fortunate that we can actually make this happen. Anyway, you were saying.
So I mentioned off… There’s two people that, if I may mention. Andrej Karpathy is a friend who’s really admired in the AI community, said, “You absolutely must talk to Michael and to Nick.” So, of course I’m a huge fan of yours, so I’m really fortunate that we can actually make this happen. Anyway, you were saying.
Nick Lane
Well, Michael Levin is doing amazing work basically about the way in which electrical fields control development. And he’s done some work with Planarian worms or flatworms, where he’ll tell you all about this, so I won’t say any more than the minimum, but basically you can cut their head off and they’ll redevelop a new head. But the head that they develop depends. If you knock out just one iron pump in a membrane, so you change the electrical circuitry just a little bit, you can come up with a completely different head. It can be a head which is similar to those that diverged 150 million years ago or it can be a head which no one’s ever seen before, a different kind of head. Now that is really, you might say, a hopeful monster.
Well, Michael Levin is doing amazing work basically about the way in which electrical fields control development. And he’s done some work with Planarian worms or flatworms, where he’ll tell you all about this, so I won’t say any more than the minimum, but basically you can cut their head off and they’ll redevelop a new head. But the head that they develop depends. If you knock out just one iron pump in a membrane, so you change the electrical circuitry just a little bit, you can come up with a completely different head. It can be a head which is similar to those that diverged 150 million years ago or it can be a head which no one’s ever seen before, a different kind of head. Now that is really, you might say, a hopeful monster.
This is a kind of leap into a different direction. The only question for natural selection is: does it work? Is the change itself feasible as a single change? And the answer is yes. It’s just a small change to a single gene. And the second thing is it gives rise to a completely different morphology. Does it work? And if it works, that can easily be a shift. But for it to be a speciation, for it to continue, for it to give rise to a different morphology over time, then it has to be perpetuated. So that shift, that change in that one gene has to work well enough that it is selected and it goes on.
Lex Fridman
And copied enough times to where you can really test it.
And copied enough times to where you can really test it.
Nick Lane
So, the likelihood it would be lost, but there’ll be some occasions where it survives. And yes, the idea that we can have sudden fairly abrupt changes in evolution, I think it’s time for rebirth.
So, the likelihood it would be lost, but there’ll be some occasions where it survives. And yes, the idea that we can have sudden fairly abrupt changes in evolution, I think it’s time for rebirth.
Lex Fridman
What about this idea that… kind of trying to mathematize a definition of life and saying how many steps… the shortest amount of steps it takes to build the thing, almost like an engineering view of it? Do you find that at all compelling?
What about this idea that… kind of trying to mathematize a definition of life and saying how many steps… the shortest amount of steps it takes to build the thing, almost like an engineering view of it? Do you find that at all compelling?
Nick Lane
I like that view, because I think that, in a sense, that’s not very far away from what a hypothesis needs to do to be a testable hypothesis for the origin of life. You need to spell out, here’s each step and here’s the experiment to do for each step. The idea that we can do it in the lab, some people say, “Oh, we’ll have created life within five years.” But ask them what they mean by life. We have a planet 4 billion years ago with these vent systems across the entire surface of the planet, and we have millions of years if we want it. I have a feeling that we’re not talking about millions of years. I have a feeling we’re talking about maybe millions of nanoseconds or picoseconds. We’re talking about chemistry, which is happening quickly.
I like that view, because I think that, in a sense, that’s not very far away from what a hypothesis needs to do to be a testable hypothesis for the origin of life. You need to spell out, here’s each step and here’s the experiment to do for each step. The idea that we can do it in the lab, some people say, “Oh, we’ll have created life within five years.” But ask them what they mean by life. We have a planet 4 billion years ago with these vent systems across the entire surface of the planet, and we have millions of years if we want it. I have a feeling that we’re not talking about millions of years. I have a feeling we’re talking about maybe millions of nanoseconds or picoseconds. We’re talking about chemistry, which is happening quickly.
But we still need to constrain those steps, but we’ve got a planet doing similar chemistry. You asked about a trajectory. The trajectory is the planetary trajectory. The planet has properties. It’s basically… It’s got a lot of iron at the center of it, it’s got a lot of electrons at the center of it. It’s more oxidized on the outside, partly because of the sun, and partly because the heat of volcanoes puts out oxidized gases. So, the planet is a battery. It’s a giant battery. And we have a flow of electrons going from inside to outside in these hydrothermal vents, and that’s the same topology that a cell has. A cell is basically just a micro-version of the planet.
And there is a trajectory in all of that, and there’s an inevitability that certain types of chemical reaction are going to be favored over others. And there’s an inevitability in what happens in water, the chemistry that happens in water. Some will be immiscible with water and will form membranes and will form insoluble structures. Water’s a… Nobody really understands water very well. And it’s another big question for experiments on the origin of life: what do you put it in? What kind of structure do we want to induce in this water? Because the last thing it’s likely to be is just kind of bulk water.
Lex Fridman
How fundamental is water to life, would you say?
How fundamental is water to life, would you say?
Nick Lane
I would say pretty fundamental. I wouldn’t like to say it’s impossible for life to start any other way, but water is everywhere. Water’s extremely good at what it does, and carbon works in water especially well. And carbon is everywhere. So, those things together make me think probabilistically, if we found 1,000 life forms, 995 of them would be carbon-based and living in water.
I would say pretty fundamental. I wouldn’t like to say it’s impossible for life to start any other way, but water is everywhere. Water’s extremely good at what it does, and carbon works in water especially well. And carbon is everywhere. So, those things together make me think probabilistically, if we found 1,000 life forms, 995 of them would be carbon-based and living in water.
Lex Fridman
Now the reverse question. If you found a puddle of water elsewhere and some carbon… No, just a puddle of water. Is a puddle of water a pretty good indication that life either exists here or has once existed here?
Now the reverse question. If you found a puddle of water elsewhere and some carbon… No, just a puddle of water. Is a puddle of water a pretty good indication that life either exists here or has once existed here?
Nick Lane
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
So, it doesn’t work the other way.
So, it doesn’t work the other way.
Nick Lane
I think you need a living planet. You need a planet which is capable of turning over its surface. It needs to be a planet with water. It needs to be capable of bringing those electrons from inside to the outside. It needs to turn over its surface. It needs to make that water work and turn it into hydrogen. So, I think you need a living planet, but once you’ve got the living planet, I think the rest of it is kind of thermodynamics all the way.
I think you need a living planet. You need a planet which is capable of turning over its surface. It needs to be a planet with water. It needs to be capable of bringing those electrons from inside to the outside. It needs to turn over its surface. It needs to make that water work and turn it into hydrogen. So, I think you need a living planet, but once you’ve got the living planet, I think the rest of it is kind of thermodynamics all the way.
Lex Fridman
So, if you were to run Earth over a million times up to this point, maybe beyond, to the end, let’s run it to the end, how much variety is there? You kind of spoke to this trajectory, that the environment dictates chemically, I don’t know in which other way, spiritually, dictates the direction of this giant machine, that seems chaotic, but it does seem to have order in-
So, if you were to run Earth over a million times up to this point, maybe beyond, to the end, let’s run it to the end, how much variety is there? You kind of spoke to this trajectory, that the environment dictates chemically, I don’t know in which other way, spiritually, dictates the direction of this giant machine, that seems chaotic, but it does seem to have order in-
Lex Fridman
… seems chaotic, but it does seem to have order in the steps it’s taking. How often will bacteria emerge? How often will something like humans emerge? How much variety do you think there would be?
… seems chaotic, but it does seem to have order in the steps it’s taking. How often will bacteria emerge? How often will something like humans emerge? How much variety do you think there would be?
Nick Lane
I think at the level of bacteria, not much variety. I think we would get how many times you say you want to run it a million times? I would say at least a few hundred thousand will get bacteria again.
I think at the level of bacteria, not much variety. I think we would get how many times you say you want to run it a million times? I would say at least a few hundred thousand will get bacteria again.
Lex Fridman
Oh, wow. Nice.
Oh, wow. Nice.
Nick Lane
Because I think there’s some level of inevitability that a wet, rocky planet will give rise through the same processes to something very… I think this is not something I would have thought a few years ago, but working with a PhD student of mine, Stuart Harrison, he’s been thinking about the genetic code and we’ve just been publishing on that. There are patterns that he has discerned in the code that if you think about them in terms of we start with CO2 and hydrogen and these are the first steps of biochemistry, you come up with a code which is very similar to the code that we see.
Because I think there’s some level of inevitability that a wet, rocky planet will give rise through the same processes to something very… I think this is not something I would have thought a few years ago, but working with a PhD student of mine, Stuart Harrison, he’s been thinking about the genetic code and we’ve just been publishing on that. There are patterns that he has discerned in the code that if you think about them in terms of we start with CO2 and hydrogen and these are the first steps of biochemistry, you come up with a code which is very similar to the code that we see.
So, it wouldn’t surprise me any longer if we found life on Mars and it had a genetic code that was not very different to the genetic code that we have here without it just being transferred across, there’s some inevitability about the whole of the beginnings of life, in my view.
Lex Fridman
That’s really promising because if the basic chemistry is tightly linked to the genetic code, that means we can interact with other life if it exists out there.
That’s really promising because if the basic chemistry is tightly linked to the genetic code, that means we can interact with other life if it exists out there.
Nick Lane
Well, that’s potentially the guess, yes.
Well, that’s potentially the guess, yes.
Lex Fridman
That’s really exciting if that’s the case. Okay. But then bacteria-
That’s really exciting if that’s the case. Okay. But then bacteria-
Nick Lane
Then we’ve got bacteria.
Then we’ve got bacteria.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Nick Lane
How easy is photosynthesis? Much harder, I would say.
How easy is photosynthesis? Much harder, I would say.
Photosynthesis
Lex Fridman
Let’s actually go there. Let’s go through the inventions.
Let’s actually go there. Let’s go through the inventions.
Nick Lane
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
What is photosynthesis and why is it hard?
What is photosynthesis and why is it hard?
Nick Lane
Well, there are different forms. I mean, basically you’re taking hydrogen and you’re sticking it onto CO2 and it’s powered by the sun. The question is where are you taking the hydrogen from? And in photosynthesis that we know in plants, it’s coming from water. So you’re using the power of the sun to split water, take out the hydrogen, stick it onto CO2, and the oxygen is a waste product and you just throw it out, throw it away. So it’s the single greatest planetary pollution event in the whole history of the earth.
Well, there are different forms. I mean, basically you’re taking hydrogen and you’re sticking it onto CO2 and it’s powered by the sun. The question is where are you taking the hydrogen from? And in photosynthesis that we know in plants, it’s coming from water. So you’re using the power of the sun to split water, take out the hydrogen, stick it onto CO2, and the oxygen is a waste product and you just throw it out, throw it away. So it’s the single greatest planetary pollution event in the whole history of the earth.
Lex Fridman
The pollutant being oxygen?
The pollutant being oxygen?
Nick Lane
Yes. Yeah. It also made possible animals, you can’t have large active animals without an oxygenated atmosphere, at least not in the sense that we know on earth.
Yes. Yeah. It also made possible animals, you can’t have large active animals without an oxygenated atmosphere, at least not in the sense that we know on earth.
Lex Fridman
So that’s a really big invention in the history of earth.
So that’s a really big invention in the history of earth.
Nick Lane
Huge invention, yes. And it happened once, there’s a few things that happened once on earth and you’re always stuck with this problem once it happened, did it become so good so quickly that it precluded the same thing happening ever again? Or are there other reasons? And we really have to look at each one in turn and think, “Why did it only happen once?” In this case, it’s really difficult to split water, it requires a lot of power and that power you’re effectively separating charge across a membrane. And the way in which you do it, if it doesn’t all rush back and kind of cause an explosion right at the site requires really careful wiring.
Huge invention, yes. And it happened once, there’s a few things that happened once on earth and you’re always stuck with this problem once it happened, did it become so good so quickly that it precluded the same thing happening ever again? Or are there other reasons? And we really have to look at each one in turn and think, “Why did it only happen once?” In this case, it’s really difficult to split water, it requires a lot of power and that power you’re effectively separating charge across a membrane. And the way in which you do it, if it doesn’t all rush back and kind of cause an explosion right at the site requires really careful wiring.
And that wiring, it can’t be easy to get it right because the plants that we see around us, they have chloroplasts. Those chloroplasts were cyanobacteria ones. Those cyanobacteria are the only group of bacteria that can do that type of photosynthesis, so there’s plenty of opportunity but-
Lex Fridman
There’s not many bacteria. So who invented photosynthesis?
There’s not many bacteria. So who invented photosynthesis?
Nick Lane
The cyanobacteria or their ancestors.
The cyanobacteria or their ancestors.
Lex Fridman
And there’s not many-
And there’s not many-
Nick Lane
No other bacteria can do what’s called oxygenic photosynthesis. Lots of other bacteria can split. I mean, you can take your hydrogen from somewhere else, you can take it from hydrogen sulphide bubbling out of a hydrothermal vent, grab your two hydrogens, the sulphur is the waste now.
No other bacteria can do what’s called oxygenic photosynthesis. Lots of other bacteria can split. I mean, you can take your hydrogen from somewhere else, you can take it from hydrogen sulphide bubbling out of a hydrothermal vent, grab your two hydrogens, the sulphur is the waste now.
You can do it from iron, you can take electrons… So the early oceans, were probably full of iron, you can take an electron from ferrous iron, so Iron 2+ and make it Iron 3+, which now precipitates as rust, and you take a proton from the acidic early ocean, stick it there now you’ve got a hydrogen atom, stick it onto CO2, you’ve just done the trick. The trouble is you bury yourself in rusty iron and with sulphur can bury yourself in sulphur. One of the reasons oxygenic photosynthesis is so much better is that the waste product is oxygen, which just bubbles away.
Lex Fridman
That seems extremely unlikely and it’s extremely essential for the evolution of complex organisms because of all the oxygen.
That seems extremely unlikely and it’s extremely essential for the evolution of complex organisms because of all the oxygen.
Nick Lane
Yeah, and that didn’t accumulate quickly either.
Yeah, and that didn’t accumulate quickly either.
Lex Fridman
So it’s converting, what is it? It’s converting energy from the sun and the resource of water into the resource needed for animals?
So it’s converting, what is it? It’s converting energy from the sun and the resource of water into the resource needed for animals?
Nick Lane
Both resources needed for animals. We need to eat and we need to burn the food, and we’re eating plants which are getting their energy from the sun and we’re burning it with their waste product, which is the oxygen. So there’s a lot of circularity in that, but without an oxygenated planet, you couldn’t really have predation. You can have animals, but you can’t really have animals that go around and eat each other. You can’t have ecosystems as we know them.
Both resources needed for animals. We need to eat and we need to burn the food, and we’re eating plants which are getting their energy from the sun and we’re burning it with their waste product, which is the oxygen. So there’s a lot of circularity in that, but without an oxygenated planet, you couldn’t really have predation. You can have animals, but you can’t really have animals that go around and eat each other. You can’t have ecosystems as we know them.
Prokaryotic vs eukaryotic cells
Lex Fridman
Well, let’s actually step back. What about eukaryotic versus prokaryotic cells, prokaryotes, what are each of those and how big of an invention is that?
Well, let’s actually step back. What about eukaryotic versus prokaryotic cells, prokaryotes, what are each of those and how big of an invention is that?
Nick Lane
I personally think that’s the single biggest invention in the whole history of life.
I personally think that’s the single biggest invention in the whole history of life.
Lex Fridman
Exciting. So what are they? Can you explain?
Exciting. So what are they? Can you explain?
Nick Lane
Yeah. So I mentioned bacteria and archaea, these are both prokaryotes. They’re basically small cells that don’t have a nucleus. If you look at them under a microscope, you don’t see much going on. If you look at them under a super resolution microscope, then they’re fantastically complex. In terms of their molecular machinery, they’re amazing. In terms of their morphological appearance under a microscope, they’re really small and really simple.
Yeah. So I mentioned bacteria and archaea, these are both prokaryotes. They’re basically small cells that don’t have a nucleus. If you look at them under a microscope, you don’t see much going on. If you look at them under a super resolution microscope, then they’re fantastically complex. In terms of their molecular machinery, they’re amazing. In terms of their morphological appearance under a microscope, they’re really small and really simple.
The earliest life that we can physically see on the planet are stromatolites, which are made by things like cyanobacteria and they’re large superstructures, effectively biofilms plated on top of each other, and you end up with quite large structures that you can see in the fossil record. But they never came up with animals, they never came up with plants, they came up with multicellular things filamentous cyanobacteria for example, they’re just long strings of cells. But the origin of the eukaryotic cell seems to have been what’s called an endosymbiosis so one cell gets inside another cell, and I think that that transformed the energetic possibilities of life. So what we end up with is a kind of supercharged cell, which can have a much larger nucleus with many more genes all supported.
You could think about it as multi-bacterial power without the overhead. So you’ve got a cell and it’s got bacteria living in it, and those bacteria are providing it with the energy currency it needs. But each bacterium has a genome of its own, which costs a fair amount of energy to express, to turn over and convert into proteins and so on. What the mitochondria did, which are these power packs in our own cells, they were bacteria once and they threw away virtually all their genes, they’ve only got a few left.
Lex Fridman
So mitochondria is, like you said, is the bacteria that got inside a cell and then throw away all this stuff it doesn’t need to survive inside the cell and then kept what?
So mitochondria is, like you said, is the bacteria that got inside a cell and then throw away all this stuff it doesn’t need to survive inside the cell and then kept what?
Nick Lane
So what we end up with, so it kept always a handful of genes in our own case, 37 genes, but there’s a few protists which are single-celled things that have got as many as 70 or 80 genes so it is not always the same, but it’s always a small number. And you can think of it as a pared-down power pack where the control unit has really been kind pared down to almost nothing. So it’s putting out the same power, but the investment in the overheads is really pared down, that means that you can support a much larger nuclear genome. So we’ve gone up in the number of genes, but also the amount of power you have to convert those genes into proteins. We’ve gone up about fourfold in the number of genes, but in terms of the size of genomes and your ability to make the building blocks, make the proteins, we’ve gone up a hundred thousand fold or more, so it’s huge step change in the possibilities of evolution.
So what we end up with, so it kept always a handful of genes in our own case, 37 genes, but there’s a few protists which are single-celled things that have got as many as 70 or 80 genes so it is not always the same, but it’s always a small number. And you can think of it as a pared-down power pack where the control unit has really been kind pared down to almost nothing. So it’s putting out the same power, but the investment in the overheads is really pared down, that means that you can support a much larger nuclear genome. So we’ve gone up in the number of genes, but also the amount of power you have to convert those genes into proteins. We’ve gone up about fourfold in the number of genes, but in terms of the size of genomes and your ability to make the building blocks, make the proteins, we’ve gone up a hundred thousand fold or more, so it’s huge step change in the possibilities of evolution.
And it is interesting then that the only two occasions that complex life has arisen on earth, plants and animals, fungi you could say are complex as well, but they don’t form such complex morphology as plants and animals, start with a single cell they start with an oocyte and a sperm fused together to make a zygote. So we start development with a single cell and all the cells in the organism have identical DNA, and in the brain, you switch off these genes and you switch on those genes and the liver, you switch off those and you switch on a different set. And the standard evolutionary explanation for that is that you’re restricting conflict, you don’t have a load of genetically different cells that are all fighting each other and so it works.
The trouble with bacteria is they form these biofilms and they’re all genetically different, and effectively they’re incapable of that level of cooperation they would get in a fight.
Lex Fridman
Okay, so why is this such a difficult invention of getting this bacteria inside and becoming an engine, which the mitochondria is? Why do you assign it such great importance? Is it great importance in terms of the difficulty of how it was to achieve or great importance in terms of the impact it had on life?
Okay, so why is this such a difficult invention of getting this bacteria inside and becoming an engine, which the mitochondria is? Why do you assign it such great importance? Is it great importance in terms of the difficulty of how it was to achieve or great importance in terms of the impact it had on life?
Nick Lane
Both. It had a huge impact on life because if that had not happened, you can be certain that life on earth would be bacterial only.
Both. It had a huge impact on life because if that had not happened, you can be certain that life on earth would be bacterial only.
Lex Fridman
And that took a really long time to-
And that took a really long time to-
Nick Lane
It took 2 billion years and it hasn’t happened since to the best of our knowledge, so it looks as if it’s genuinely difficult. And if you think about it then from just an informational perspective, you think bacteria, they structure their information differently. So a bacterial cell has a small genome, you might have 4,000 genes in it. But a single E. coli cell has access to about 30,000 genes, potentially. It’s got a metagenome where other E. coli out there have got different gene sets and they can switch them around between themselves. And so you can generate a huge amount of variation, and they’ve got more. An E. coli. metagenome is larger than the human genome, we own 20,000 genes or something, and they’ve had 4 billion years of evolution to work out what can I do and what can’t I do with this metagenome. And the answer is, you’re stuck, you’re still bacteria.
It took 2 billion years and it hasn’t happened since to the best of our knowledge, so it looks as if it’s genuinely difficult. And if you think about it then from just an informational perspective, you think bacteria, they structure their information differently. So a bacterial cell has a small genome, you might have 4,000 genes in it. But a single E. coli cell has access to about 30,000 genes, potentially. It’s got a metagenome where other E. coli out there have got different gene sets and they can switch them around between themselves. And so you can generate a huge amount of variation, and they’ve got more. An E. coli. metagenome is larger than the human genome, we own 20,000 genes or something, and they’ve had 4 billion years of evolution to work out what can I do and what can’t I do with this metagenome. And the answer is, you’re stuck, you’re still bacteria.
So they have explored genetic sequence space far more thoroughly than eukaryotes ever did because they’ve had twice as long at least, and they’ve got much larger populations, and they never got around this problem. So why can’t they? It seems as if you can’t solve it with information alone. So what’s the problem? The problem is structure.
If the very first cells needed an electrical charge on their membrane to grow, and in bacteria it’s the outer membrane that surrounds the cell, which is electrically charged, you try and scale that up and you’ve got a fundamental design problem, you’ve got an engineering problem, and there are examples of it. And what we see in all these cases is what’s known as extreme polyploidy, which is to say they have tens of thousands of copies of their complete genome, which is energetically hugely expensive, and you end up with a large bacteria with no further development. What you is to incorporate these electrically charged power pack units inside with their control units intact, and for them not to conflict so much with the host cell that it all goes wrong, perhaps it goes wrong more often than not, and then you change the topology of the cell.
Now, you don’t necessarily have any more DNA than a giant bacterium with extreme polyploidy, but what you’ve got is an asymmetry. You now have a giant nuclear genome surrounded by lots of subsidiary energetic genomes they’re the control units that are doing all the control of energy generation.
Lex Fridman
Could this have been done gradually or does it have to be done, the power pack has to be all intact and ready to go and working?
Could this have been done gradually or does it have to be done, the power pack has to be all intact and ready to go and working?
Nick Lane
I mean, it’s a kind of step changing in the possibilities of evolution, but it doesn’t happen overnight. It’s going to still require multiple, multiple, generations. So it could take millions of years, it could take shorter time there’s another thing I would like to put the number of steps and try and work out what’s required at each step and we are trying to do that with sex, for example. You can’t have a very large genome unless you have sex at that point so what are the changes to go from bacterial recombination to eukaryotic recombination? What do you need to do? Why do we go from passing around bits of DNA as if it’s loose change to fusing cells together, lining up the chromosomes, recombining across the chromosomes, and then going through two rounds of cell division to produce your gametes? All eukaryotes do it that way.
I mean, it’s a kind of step changing in the possibilities of evolution, but it doesn’t happen overnight. It’s going to still require multiple, multiple, generations. So it could take millions of years, it could take shorter time there’s another thing I would like to put the number of steps and try and work out what’s required at each step and we are trying to do that with sex, for example. You can’t have a very large genome unless you have sex at that point so what are the changes to go from bacterial recombination to eukaryotic recombination? What do you need to do? Why do we go from passing around bits of DNA as if it’s loose change to fusing cells together, lining up the chromosomes, recombining across the chromosomes, and then going through two rounds of cell division to produce your gametes? All eukaryotes do it that way.
So again, why switch? What are the drivers here? So there’s a lot of time, there’s a lot of evolution, but as soon as you’ve got cells living inside another cell, what you’ve got is a new design, you’ve got new potential that you didn’t have before.
Lex Fridman
So the cell living inside another cell, that design allows for better storage of information, better use of energy, more delegation, like a hierarchical control of the whole thing. And then somehow that leads to ability to have multi-cell organisms?
So the cell living inside another cell, that design allows for better storage of information, better use of energy, more delegation, like a hierarchical control of the whole thing. And then somehow that leads to ability to have multi-cell organisms?
Nick Lane
I’m not sure that you have hierarchical control necessarily, but you’ve got a system where you can have a much larger information storage depot in the nucleus, you can have a much larger genome. And that allows multi-cellularity, yes, because it allows you… It’s a funny thing, to have an animal where I have 70% of my genes switched on in my brain and a different 50% switched on in my liver or something, you’ve got to have all those genes in the egg cell at the very beginning, and you’ve got to have a program of development which says, “Okay, you guys switch off those genes and switch on those genes, and you guys you do that.” But all the genes are there at the beginning. That means you’ve got to have a lot of genes in one cell and you’ve got to be able to maintain them and the problem with bacteria is they don’t get close to having enough genes in one cell. So if you were to try make a multicellular organism from bacteria, you’d bring different types of bacteria together and hope they’ll cooperate and the reality is they don’t.
I’m not sure that you have hierarchical control necessarily, but you’ve got a system where you can have a much larger information storage depot in the nucleus, you can have a much larger genome. And that allows multi-cellularity, yes, because it allows you… It’s a funny thing, to have an animal where I have 70% of my genes switched on in my brain and a different 50% switched on in my liver or something, you’ve got to have all those genes in the egg cell at the very beginning, and you’ve got to have a program of development which says, “Okay, you guys switch off those genes and switch on those genes, and you guys you do that.” But all the genes are there at the beginning. That means you’ve got to have a lot of genes in one cell and you’ve got to be able to maintain them and the problem with bacteria is they don’t get close to having enough genes in one cell. So if you were to try make a multicellular organism from bacteria, you’d bring different types of bacteria together and hope they’ll cooperate and the reality is they don’t.
Lex Fridman
That’s really, really tough to do, combinatorially.
That’s really, really tough to do, combinatorially.
Nick Lane
We know they don’t because it doesn’t exist.
We know they don’t because it doesn’t exist.
Lex Fridman
We have the data as far as we know. I’m sure there’s a few special ones and they die off quickly. I’d love to know some of the most fun things bacteria have done since?
We have the data as far as we know. I’m sure there’s a few special ones and they die off quickly. I’d love to know some of the most fun things bacteria have done since?
Nick Lane
Oh, I mean, they can do some pretty funky things. This is broad brushstroke that I’m talking about, but it’s, yeah.
Oh, I mean, they can do some pretty funky things. This is broad brushstroke that I’m talking about, but it’s, yeah.
Sex
Lex Fridman
Generally speaking. So another fun invention, us humans seem to utilize it well, but you say it’s also very important early on is sex. So what is sex? Just asking for a friend. And when was it invented and how hard was it to invent, just as you were saying, and why was it invented? How hard was it? And when?
Generally speaking. So another fun invention, us humans seem to utilize it well, but you say it’s also very important early on is sex. So what is sex? Just asking for a friend. And when was it invented and how hard was it to invent, just as you were saying, and why was it invented? How hard was it? And when?
Nick Lane
I have a PhD student who’s been working on this-
I have a PhD student who’s been working on this-
Lex Fridman
On sex?
On sex?
Nick Lane
… and we’ve just published a couple of papers. On sex, yes, yes, yes.
… and we’ve just published a couple of papers. On sex, yes, yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
Nice. Where do you publish these? Is it biology, genetics, journals?
Nice. Where do you publish these? Is it biology, genetics, journals?
Nick Lane
This is actually PNAS, which is Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
This is actually PNAS, which is Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Lex Fridman
So like, broad, big, big picture stuff?
So like, broad, big, big picture stuff?
Nick Lane
Everyone’s interested in sex.
Everyone’s interested in sex.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Nick Lane
The job of biologist is to make sex dull.
The job of biologist is to make sex dull.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s a beautiful way to put it. Okay, so when was it invented?
Yeah, that’s a beautiful way to put it. Okay, so when was it invented?
Nick Lane
It was invented with eukaryotes about 2 billion years ago. All eukaryotes share the same basic mechanism that you produce gametes, the gametes fuse together. So a gamete is the egg cell and the sperm, they’re not necessarily even different in size or shape. So the simplest eukaryotes produce what are called motile gametes, they’re all like sperm and they all swim around, they find each other, they fuse together, they don’t have much going on there beyond that. And then these are haploids, which is to say we all have two copies of our genome, and the gametes have only a single copy of the genome. So when they fuse together, you now become diploid again, which is to say you now have two copies of your genome, and what you do is you line them all up and then you double everything.
It was invented with eukaryotes about 2 billion years ago. All eukaryotes share the same basic mechanism that you produce gametes, the gametes fuse together. So a gamete is the egg cell and the sperm, they’re not necessarily even different in size or shape. So the simplest eukaryotes produce what are called motile gametes, they’re all like sperm and they all swim around, they find each other, they fuse together, they don’t have much going on there beyond that. And then these are haploids, which is to say we all have two copies of our genome, and the gametes have only a single copy of the genome. So when they fuse together, you now become diploid again, which is to say you now have two copies of your genome, and what you do is you line them all up and then you double everything.
So now we have four copies of the complete genome, and then we crisscross between all of these things. So we take a bit from here and stick it on there and a bit from here, and we stick it on here, that’s recombination. Then we go through two rounds of cell division. So we divide in half, so now the two daughter cells have two copies and we divide in half again, now we have some gametes, each of which has got a single copy of the genome. And that’s the basic ground plan for what’s called meiosis and syn-gametes, that’s basically sex.
And it happens at the level of single-celled organisms and it happens pretty much the same way in plants and pretty much the same way in animals and so on. And it’s not found in any bacteria, they switch things around using the same machinery and they take up a bit of DNA from the environment. They take out this bit and stick in that bit, and it’s the same molecular machinery they’re using to do it.
Lex Fridman
So what about the, you said find each other this kind of imperative to find each other. What is that?
So what about the, you said find each other this kind of imperative to find each other. What is that?
Nick Lane
Well, you’ve got a fuse cells together. So the bottom line on all of this is bacteria, I mean, it’s kind of simple when you’ve figured it out and figuring it out this is not me, this is my PhD student, Marco Colnaghi. And in effect, if you’re doing lateral, you’re E. coli cell, you’ve got 4,000 genes, you want to scale up to a eukaryotic size. I want to have 20,000 genes and I need to maintain my genome so it doesn’t get shot to pieces by mutations, and I’m going to do it by lateral gene transfer.
Well, you’ve got a fuse cells together. So the bottom line on all of this is bacteria, I mean, it’s kind of simple when you’ve figured it out and figuring it out this is not me, this is my PhD student, Marco Colnaghi. And in effect, if you’re doing lateral, you’re E. coli cell, you’ve got 4,000 genes, you want to scale up to a eukaryotic size. I want to have 20,000 genes and I need to maintain my genome so it doesn’t get shot to pieces by mutations, and I’m going to do it by lateral gene transfer.
So I know I’ve got a mutation in a gene, I don’t know which gene it is because I’m not sentient, but I know I can’t grow, I know all my regulation systems are saying, “Something wrong here, something wrong, pick up some DNA, pick up a bit of DNA from the environment.” If you’ve got a small genome, the chances of you picking up the right bit of DNA from the environment is much higher than if you’ve got a genome of 20,000 genes. To do that, you’ve effectively got to be picking up DNA all the time, all day long and nothing else, and you’re still going to get the wrong DNA. You’ve got to pick up large chunks, and in the end, you’ve got to line them up, you’re forced into sex, to coin a phrase.
Lex Fridman
So there is a kind of incentive-
So there is a kind of incentive-
Nick Lane
If you want to have a large genome, you’ve got to prevent it mutating to nothing and that will happen with bacteria, so there’s another reason why bacteria can’t have a large genome. But as soon as you give eukaryotic cells the power pack that allows them to increase the size of their genome, then you face the pressure that you’ve got to maintain its quality. You’ve got to stop it just mutating away.
If you want to have a large genome, you’ve got to prevent it mutating to nothing and that will happen with bacteria, so there’s another reason why bacteria can’t have a large genome. But as soon as you give eukaryotic cells the power pack that allows them to increase the size of their genome, then you face the pressure that you’ve got to maintain its quality. You’ve got to stop it just mutating away.
Lex Fridman
What about sexual selection? So the finding like, “I don’t like this one. I don’t like this one. This one seems all right.” At which point does it become less random?
What about sexual selection? So the finding like, “I don’t like this one. I don’t like this one. This one seems all right.” At which point does it become less random?
Nick Lane
It’s hard to know.
It’s hard to know.
Lex Fridman
Because eukaryotes just kind of float around just kind of have… It’s kind of like Tinder these days.
Because eukaryotes just kind of float around just kind of have… It’s kind of like Tinder these days.
Nick Lane
Yeah I mean, it’s their sexual section election in single-celled eukaryotes. There probably is, it’s just that I don’t know very much about it. By the time we-
Yeah I mean, it’s their sexual section election in single-celled eukaryotes. There probably is, it’s just that I don’t know very much about it. By the time we-
Lex Fridman
You don’t hang out with eukaryotes?
You don’t hang out with eukaryotes?
Nick Lane
Well, I do all the time, but you know?
Well, I do all the time, but you know?
Lex Fridman
You can’t communicate with them, yeah.
You can’t communicate with them, yeah.
Nick Lane
Yeah. Peacock or something.
Yeah. Peacock or something.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Nick Lane
The kind of standard, this is not quite what I work on, but the standard answer is that it’s female mate choice, she’s looking for good genes and if you can have a tail that’s like this and still survive, still be alive, not actually have been taken down by the nearest predator, then you must’ve got pretty good genes despite this handicap you are able to survive.
The kind of standard, this is not quite what I work on, but the standard answer is that it’s female mate choice, she’s looking for good genes and if you can have a tail that’s like this and still survive, still be alive, not actually have been taken down by the nearest predator, then you must’ve got pretty good genes despite this handicap you are able to survive.
Lex Fridman
So those are human interpretable things like with a peacock. But I wonder, I’m sure echoes of the same thing are there with more primitive organisms, basically your PR, like how you advertise yourself that you’re worthy of? Yeah,
So those are human interpretable things like with a peacock. But I wonder, I’m sure echoes of the same thing are there with more primitive organisms, basically your PR, like how you advertise yourself that you’re worthy of? Yeah,
Nick Lane
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
So one big advertisement is the fact that you survived it all.
So one big advertisement is the fact that you survived it all.
Nick Lane
Yeah, let me give you one beautiful example of an algal bloom, and this can be a sign of bacteria, this can be in bacteria. So if suddenly you pump nitrate or phosphate or something into the ocean and everything goes green, you end up with all this algae growing there, a viral infection or something like that can kill the entire bloom overnight. And it’s not that the virus takes out everything overnight, it’s that most of the cells in that bloom kill themselves before the virus can get onto them. And it’s through a form of cell death called programmed cell death. And we do the same thing, this is how we have the gaps between our fingers and so on, it’s how we craft synapses in the brain. It is fundamental again, to multicellular life.
Yeah, let me give you one beautiful example of an algal bloom, and this can be a sign of bacteria, this can be in bacteria. So if suddenly you pump nitrate or phosphate or something into the ocean and everything goes green, you end up with all this algae growing there, a viral infection or something like that can kill the entire bloom overnight. And it’s not that the virus takes out everything overnight, it’s that most of the cells in that bloom kill themselves before the virus can get onto them. And it’s through a form of cell death called programmed cell death. And we do the same thing, this is how we have the gaps between our fingers and so on, it’s how we craft synapses in the brain. It is fundamental again, to multicellular life.
They have the same machinery in these algal blooms. How do they know who dies? The answer is they will often put out a toxin and that toxin is a kind of challenge to you. Either you can cope with the toxin or you can’t. If you can cope with it, you form a spore and you will go on to become the next generation. You form kind of a resistant spore, you sink down a little bit, you get out of the way, you can’t be attacked by a virus if you’re a spore or at least not so easily. Whereas if you can’t deal with that toxin, you pull the plug and you trigger your death apparatus and you kill yourself.
Lex Fridman
It’s truly life and death selection.
It’s truly life and death selection.
Nick Lane
Yeah, so it’s a challenge, and this is a bit like sexual selection. They’re all pretty much genetically identical, but they’ve had different life histories. So have you had a tough day? Did you happen to get infected by this virus? Or did you run out of iron? Or did you get a bit too much sun? Whatever it may be. If this extra stress of the toxin just pushes you over the edge, then you have this binary choice, either you’re the next generation or you kill yourself now using this same machinery.
Yeah, so it’s a challenge, and this is a bit like sexual selection. They’re all pretty much genetically identical, but they’ve had different life histories. So have you had a tough day? Did you happen to get infected by this virus? Or did you run out of iron? Or did you get a bit too much sun? Whatever it may be. If this extra stress of the toxin just pushes you over the edge, then you have this binary choice, either you’re the next generation or you kill yourself now using this same machinery.
DNA
Lex Fridman
It’s also actually exactly the way I approach dating, but that’s probably why I am single. Okay. What about, if we can step back, DNA just mechanism of storing information, RNA, DNA, how big of an invention was that? That seems to be fundamental to something deep within what life is, is the ability, as you said, to kind of store and propagate information. But then you also kind of inferred that with you and your students’ work, that there’s a deep connection between the chemistry and the ability to have this kind of genetic information. So how big of an invention is it to have a nice representation, a nice hard drive for info to pass on?
It’s also actually exactly the way I approach dating, but that’s probably why I am single. Okay. What about, if we can step back, DNA just mechanism of storing information, RNA, DNA, how big of an invention was that? That seems to be fundamental to something deep within what life is, is the ability, as you said, to kind of store and propagate information. But then you also kind of inferred that with you and your students’ work, that there’s a deep connection between the chemistry and the ability to have this kind of genetic information. So how big of an invention is it to have a nice representation, a nice hard drive for info to pass on?
Nick Lane
Huge, I suspect. I mean, but when I was talking about the code, you see the code in RNA as well, and RNA almost certainly came first. And there’s been an idea going back decades called the RNA world because RNA in theory can copy itself and can catalyze reactions. So it kind of cuts out this chicken and egg loop.
Huge, I suspect. I mean, but when I was talking about the code, you see the code in RNA as well, and RNA almost certainly came first. And there’s been an idea going back decades called the RNA world because RNA in theory can copy itself and can catalyze reactions. So it kind of cuts out this chicken and egg loop.
Lex Fridman
The DNA, it’s possible is not that special?
The DNA, it’s possible is not that special?
Nick Lane
So RNA is the thing that does the work really, and the code lies in RNA. The code lies in the interactions between RNA and amino acids and it still is there today in the ribosome, for example, which is just kind of a giant ribozyme, which is to say it’s an enzyme that’s made of RNA.
So RNA is the thing that does the work really, and the code lies in RNA. The code lies in the interactions between RNA and amino acids and it still is there today in the ribosome, for example, which is just kind of a giant ribozyme, which is to say it’s an enzyme that’s made of RNA.
So getting to RNA, I suspect is probably not that hard. But getting from RNA, there’s multiple different types of RNA now, how do you distinguish? This is something we’re actively thinking about, how do you distinguish between a random population of RNA? Some of them go on to become messenger RNA, this is the transcript of the code of the gene that you want to make. Some of them become transfer RNA, which is kind of the unit that holds the amino acid that’s going to be polymerized. Some of them become ribosomal RNA, which is the machine, which is joining them all up together.
How do they discriminate themselves? There’s some kind of phase transition going on there, I don’t know, it’s a difficult question and we’re now in the region of biology where information is coming in. But the thing about RNA is very, very good at what it does but the largest genomes supported by RNA are RNA viruses like HIV, for example. They’re pretty small. And so there’s a limit to how complex life could be unless you come up with DNA, which chemically is a really small change but how easy it is to make that change? I don’t really know. As soon as you’ve got DNA, then you’ve got an amazingly stable molecule for information storage, and you can do absolutely anything. But how likely that transition from RNA to DNA was? I don’t know either.
Lex Fridman
How much possibility is there for variety in ways to store information? It seems to be very, there’s specific characteristics about the programming language of DNA.
How much possibility is there for variety in ways to store information? It seems to be very, there’s specific characteristics about the programming language of DNA.
Nick Lane
Yeah, there’s a lot of work going on on what’s called the Xeno DNA or RNA. Can we replace the bases themselves, the letters if you like, in RNA or DNA? Can we replace the backbone? Can we replace, for example, phosphate with arsenate? Can we replace the sugar ribose or deoxyribose with a different sugar? And the answer is yes, you can within limits there’s not an infinite space there. Arsenate doesn’t really work if the bonds are not as strong as phosphate, it’s probably quite hard to replace phosphate. It’s possible to do it.
Yeah, there’s a lot of work going on on what’s called the Xeno DNA or RNA. Can we replace the bases themselves, the letters if you like, in RNA or DNA? Can we replace the backbone? Can we replace, for example, phosphate with arsenate? Can we replace the sugar ribose or deoxyribose with a different sugar? And the answer is yes, you can within limits there’s not an infinite space there. Arsenate doesn’t really work if the bonds are not as strong as phosphate, it’s probably quite hard to replace phosphate. It’s possible to do it.
The question to me is, why is it this way? Is it because there was some form of selection that this is better than the other forms and there were lots of competing forms of information storage early on, and this one was the one that worked out? Or was it kind of channeled that way, that these are the molecules that you’re dealing with and they work? And I’m increasingly thinking it’s that way that we’re channeled towards ribose phosphate and the bases that are used, but there are 200 different letters kicking around out there that could have been used.
Lex Fridman
It’s such an interesting question. If you look at, in the programming world in computer science, there’s a programming language called JavaScript, which was written super quickly, it’s a giant mess, but it took over the world.
It’s such an interesting question. If you look at, in the programming world in computer science, there’s a programming language called JavaScript, which was written super quickly, it’s a giant mess, but it took over the world.
Nick Lane
Sounds very biological.
Sounds very biological.
Lex Fridman
It was kind of a running joke that surely this can’t be… This is a terrible programming language, it’s a giant mess. It’s full of bugs, it’s so easy to write really crappy code but it took over all of front end development in the web browser. If you have any kind of dynamic interactive website, it’s usually running JavaScript and it’s now taking over much of the backend, which is the serious heavy duty computational stuff. And it’s become super fast with the different compilation engines that are running it, so it really took over the world. It’s very possible that this initially crappy derided language actually takes everything over.
It was kind of a running joke that surely this can’t be… This is a terrible programming language, it’s a giant mess. It’s full of bugs, it’s so easy to write really crappy code but it took over all of front end development in the web browser. If you have any kind of dynamic interactive website, it’s usually running JavaScript and it’s now taking over much of the backend, which is the serious heavy duty computational stuff. And it’s become super fast with the different compilation engines that are running it, so it really took over the world. It’s very possible that this initially crappy derided language actually takes everything over.
And then the question is, did human civilization always strive towards JavaScript or was JavaScript just the first programming language that ran on the browser and still sticky? The first is the sticky one, and so it wins over anything else because it was first. And I don’t think that’s answerable, right? But it’s good to ask that. I suppose in the lab you can’t run it with programming languages, but in biology you can probably do some kind of small scale evolutionary test to try to infer which is which?
Nick Lane
Yeah, I mean, in a way, we’ve got the hardware and the software here, and the hardware is maybe the DNA and the RNA itself, and then the software perhaps is more about the code. Did the code have to be this way? Could it have been a different way? And people talk about the optimization of the code, and there’s some suggestion for that. I think it’s weak, actually. But you could imagine you can come out with a million different codes and this would be one of the best ones.
Yeah, I mean, in a way, we’ve got the hardware and the software here, and the hardware is maybe the DNA and the RNA itself, and then the software perhaps is more about the code. Did the code have to be this way? Could it have been a different way? And people talk about the optimization of the code, and there’s some suggestion for that. I think it’s weak, actually. But you could imagine you can come out with a million different codes and this would be one of the best ones.
Lex Fridman
Well, we don’t know this. We don’t know this.
Well, we don’t know this. We don’t know this.
Nick Lane
People have tried to model it based on the effect that mutations would have. So no, you’re right, we don’t know because that’s a single assumption that a mutation is what’s being selected on there and there’s other possibilities too.
People have tried to model it based on the effect that mutations would have. So no, you’re right, we don’t know because that’s a single assumption that a mutation is what’s being selected on there and there’s other possibilities too.
Lex Fridman
I mean, there does seem to be a resilience and a redundancy to the whole thing.
I mean, there does seem to be a resilience and a redundancy to the whole thing.
Nick Lane
Yep.
Yep.
Lex Fridman
It’s hard to mess up in the way you mess it up often is likely to produce interesting results.
It’s hard to mess up in the way you mess it up often is likely to produce interesting results.
Nick Lane
Are you talking about JavaScript or the genetic code now?
Are you talking about JavaScript or the genetic code now?
Lex Fridman
Both.
Both.
Nick Lane
Yeah? Well, I mean, it’s almost, biology is underpinned by this kind of mess as well. And you look at the human genome and it is full of stuff that is really either broken or dysfunctional or was a virus once or whatever it may be, and somehow it works and maybe we need a lot of this mess. We know that some functional genes are taken from this mess.
Yeah? Well, I mean, it’s almost, biology is underpinned by this kind of mess as well. And you look at the human genome and it is full of stuff that is really either broken or dysfunctional or was a virus once or whatever it may be, and somehow it works and maybe we need a lot of this mess. We know that some functional genes are taken from this mess.
Violence
Lex Fridman
So what about, you mentioned predatory behavior.
So what about, you mentioned predatory behavior.
Nick Lane
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
We talked about sex. What about violence? Predator and prey dynamics? When was that invented? And poetic and biological ways of putting it, how do you describe predator prey relationship? Is it a beautiful dance or is it a violent atrocity?
We talked about sex. What about violence? Predator and prey dynamics? When was that invented? And poetic and biological ways of putting it, how do you describe predator prey relationship? Is it a beautiful dance or is it a violent atrocity?
Nick Lane
Well, I guess it’s both, isn’t it? I mean, when does it start? It starts in bacteria, you see these amazing predators Bdellovibrio is one that Lynn Margulis used to talk about a lot. It’s got a kind of a drill piece that drills through the wall and the membrane of the bacterium, and then it effectively eats the bacterium from just inside the periplasmic space and makes copies of itself that way, so that’s straight predation. There are predators among bacteria.
Well, I guess it’s both, isn’t it? I mean, when does it start? It starts in bacteria, you see these amazing predators Bdellovibrio is one that Lynn Margulis used to talk about a lot. It’s got a kind of a drill piece that drills through the wall and the membrane of the bacterium, and then it effectively eats the bacterium from just inside the periplasmic space and makes copies of itself that way, so that’s straight predation. There are predators among bacteria.
Lex Fridman
So predation in that, sorry to interrupt, means you murder somebody and use their body as a resource in some way?
So predation in that, sorry to interrupt, means you murder somebody and use their body as a resource in some way?
Nick Lane
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
But it’s not parasitic in that you need them to be still alive?
But it’s not parasitic in that you need them to be still alive?
Nick Lane
No, no. I mean, predation is you kill them really.
No, no. I mean, predation is you kill them really.
Lex Fridman
Murder.
Murder.
Nick Lane
Parasitis, you kind of live on them.
Parasitis, you kind of live on them.
Lex Fridman
Okay. But it seems the predator is the really popular tool?
Okay. But it seems the predator is the really popular tool?
Nick Lane
So what we see, if we go back 560, 570 million years before the Cambrian Explosion, there is what’s known as the Ediacaran Fauna, or sometimes they call Vendobionts, which is a lovely name and it’s not obvious that they’re animals at all. They’re stalked things, they often have fronds that look a lot like leaves with kind of fractual branching patterns on them and-
So what we see, if we go back 560, 570 million years before the Cambrian Explosion, there is what’s known as the Ediacaran Fauna, or sometimes they call Vendobionts, which is a lovely name and it’s not obvious that they’re animals at all. They’re stalked things, they often have fronds that look a lot like leaves with kind of fractual branching patterns on them and-
Nick Lane
… branching patterns on them. And the thing is they’re found, sometimes, geologists can figure out the environment that they were in and say, “This is more than 200 meters deep because there’s no sign of any waves. There’s no storm damage down here,” this kind of thing. They were more than 200 meters deep, so they’re definitely not photosynthetic. These are animals, and they’re filter feeders. We know sponges and corals and things are filter-feeding animals; they’re stuck to the spot. And little bits of carbon that come their way, they filter it out, and that’s what they’re eating. So no predation involved in this, beyond stuff just dies anyway, and it feels like a very gentle, rather beautiful, rather limited world, you might say. There’s not a lot going on there.
… branching patterns on them. And the thing is they’re found, sometimes, geologists can figure out the environment that they were in and say, “This is more than 200 meters deep because there’s no sign of any waves. There’s no storm damage down here,” this kind of thing. They were more than 200 meters deep, so they’re definitely not photosynthetic. These are animals, and they’re filter feeders. We know sponges and corals and things are filter-feeding animals; they’re stuck to the spot. And little bits of carbon that come their way, they filter it out, and that’s what they’re eating. So no predation involved in this, beyond stuff just dies anyway, and it feels like a very gentle, rather beautiful, rather limited world, you might say. There’s not a lot going on there.
And something changes. Oxygen definitely changes during this period. Other things may have changed as well. But the next thing you really see in the fossil record is the Cambrian explosion. And what do we see there? We’re now seeing animals that we would recognize, they’ve got eyes, they’ve got claws, they’ve got shells. They’re plainly killing things or running away and hiding. So we’ve gone from a rather gentle, but limited world, to a rather vicious, unpleasant world that we recognize, which leads to kind of arms races, evolutionary arms races, which again is something that when we think about a nuclear arms race, we think, “Jesus, we don’t want to go there. It’s not done anybody any good.” In some ways, maybe it does do good. I don’t want to make an argument for nuclear arms, but predation as a mechanism forces organisms to adapt, to change, to be better, to escape, or to kill. If you need to eat, then you’ve got to eat. A cheetah is not going to run at that speed unless it has to because the zebra is capable of escaping. So it leads to much greater feats of evolution would ever have been possible without it, and in the end, to a much more beautiful world. So it’s not all bad, by any means.
But the thing is, you can’t have this if you don’t have an oxygenated planet because it’s all, in the end, it’s about how much energy can you extract from the food you eat? And if you don’t have an oxygenated planet, you can get about 10% out, not much more than that. And if you’ve got an oxygenated planet, you can get about 40% out. And that means you can have, instead of having one or two trophic levels, you can have five or six trophic levels, and that means things can eat things that eat other things and so on, and you’ve gone to a level of ecological complexity, which is completely impossible in the absence of oxygen.
Lex Fridman
This reminds me of the Hunter S. Thompson quote that, “For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.” The history of life on Earth unfortunately is that of violence, just the trillions and trillions of multi-cell organisms that were murdered in the struggle for survival.
This reminds me of the Hunter S. Thompson quote that, “For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.” The history of life on Earth unfortunately is that of violence, just the trillions and trillions of multi-cell organisms that were murdered in the struggle for survival.
Nick Lane
It’s a sorry statement, but yes, it’s basically true.
It’s a sorry statement, but yes, it’s basically true.
Lex Fridman
And that somehow is a catalyst from an evolutionary perspective for creativity, for creating more and more complex organisms that are better and better at surviving-
And that somehow is a catalyst from an evolutionary perspective for creativity, for creating more and more complex organisms that are better and better at surviving-
Nick Lane
Survival of the fittest, if you just go back to that old phrase, means death of the weakest. Now, what’s fit? What’s weak? These are terms that don’t have much intrinsic meaning, but the thing is, evolution only happens because of death.
Survival of the fittest, if you just go back to that old phrase, means death of the weakest. Now, what’s fit? What’s weak? These are terms that don’t have much intrinsic meaning, but the thing is, evolution only happens because of death.
Lex Fridman
One way to die is that the constraints, the scarcity of the resources in the environment, but that seems to be not nearly as good of a mechanism for death than other creatures roaming about in the environment. When I say environment, I mean the static environment, but then there’s the dynamic environment of bigger things trying to eat you and use you for your energy.
One way to die is that the constraints, the scarcity of the resources in the environment, but that seems to be not nearly as good of a mechanism for death than other creatures roaming about in the environment. When I say environment, I mean the static environment, but then there’s the dynamic environment of bigger things trying to eat you and use you for your energy.
Nick Lane
It forces you to come up with a solution to your specific problem that is inventive and is new and hasn’t been done before. So it forces literally change, literally evolution on populations. They have to become different.
It forces you to come up with a solution to your specific problem that is inventive and is new and hasn’t been done before. So it forces literally change, literally evolution on populations. They have to become different.
Lex Fridman
And it’s interesting that humans have channeled that into more… I guess what humans are doing is they’re inventing more productive and safe ways of doing that. This whole idea of morality and all those kinds of things, I think they ultimately lead to competition versus violence. Because I think violence can have a cold, brutal, inefficient aspect to it, but if you channel that into more controlled competition in the space of ideas, in the space of approaches to life, maybe you can be even more productive than evolution is. Because evolution is very wasteful. The amount of murder required to really test the good idea, genetically speaking, is just a lot. Many, many, many generations.
And it’s interesting that humans have channeled that into more… I guess what humans are doing is they’re inventing more productive and safe ways of doing that. This whole idea of morality and all those kinds of things, I think they ultimately lead to competition versus violence. Because I think violence can have a cold, brutal, inefficient aspect to it, but if you channel that into more controlled competition in the space of ideas, in the space of approaches to life, maybe you can be even more productive than evolution is. Because evolution is very wasteful. The amount of murder required to really test the good idea, genetically speaking, is just a lot. Many, many, many generations.
Nick Lane
Morally, we cannot base society on the way that evolution works.
Morally, we cannot base society on the way that evolution works.
Lex Fridman
But that’s an invention, right, to morality?
But that’s an invention, right, to morality?
Nick Lane
But actually, in some respects, we do, which is to say, “This is how science works. We have competing hypotheses that have to get better, otherwise they die.” It’s the way that society works. In Ancient Greece, we had Athens and Sparta and city states, and then we had the Renaissance and nation states, and universities compete with each other tremendous amount, companies competing with each other all the time. It drives innovation. And if we want to do it without all the death that we see in nature, then we have to have some kind of societal-level control that says, “Well, there’s some limits, guys, and these are what the limits are going to be,” and society as a whole has to say, “Right, we want to limit the amount of death here, so you can’t do this and you can’t do that.” Who makes up these rules, and how do we know? It’s a tough thing, but it’s basically trying to find a moral basis for avoiding the death of evolution and natural selection and keeping the innovation and the richness of it.
But actually, in some respects, we do, which is to say, “This is how science works. We have competing hypotheses that have to get better, otherwise they die.” It’s the way that society works. In Ancient Greece, we had Athens and Sparta and city states, and then we had the Renaissance and nation states, and universities compete with each other tremendous amount, companies competing with each other all the time. It drives innovation. And if we want to do it without all the death that we see in nature, then we have to have some kind of societal-level control that says, “Well, there’s some limits, guys, and these are what the limits are going to be,” and society as a whole has to say, “Right, we want to limit the amount of death here, so you can’t do this and you can’t do that.” Who makes up these rules, and how do we know? It’s a tough thing, but it’s basically trying to find a moral basis for avoiding the death of evolution and natural selection and keeping the innovation and the richness of it.
Lex Fridman
I forgot who said it, but that murder is illegal… Probably Kurt Vonnegut. Murder is illegal except when it’s done to the sound of trumpets and at a large scale. So we still have wars, but we are struggling with this idea that murder is a bad thing. It’s so interesting how we’re channeling the best of the evolutionary imperative and trying to get rid of the stuff that’s not productive, trying to almost accelerate evolution. The same kind of thing that makes evolution creative, we’re trying to use that.
I forgot who said it, but that murder is illegal… Probably Kurt Vonnegut. Murder is illegal except when it’s done to the sound of trumpets and at a large scale. So we still have wars, but we are struggling with this idea that murder is a bad thing. It’s so interesting how we’re channeling the best of the evolutionary imperative and trying to get rid of the stuff that’s not productive, trying to almost accelerate evolution. The same kind of thing that makes evolution creative, we’re trying to use that.
Nick Lane
I think we naturally do it. I don’t think we can help ourselves to it.
I think we naturally do it. I don’t think we can help ourselves to it.
Lex Fridman
It’s so hard to know.
It’s so hard to know.
Nick Lane
Capitalism as a form is basically about competition and differential rewards. But society, and we have a, I keep using this word, moral obligation, but we cannot operate as a society if we go that way. It’s interesting that we’ve had problems achieving balance. For example, in the financial crash in 2009, do you let banks go to the wall or not, this kind of question. In evolution, certainly, you let them go to the wall. And in that sense, you don’t need the regulation because they just die. Whereas if we as a society think about what’s required for society as a whole, then you don’t necessarily let them go to the wall, in which case you then have to impose some kind of regulation that the bankers themselves will, in an evolutionary manner, exploit.
Capitalism as a form is basically about competition and differential rewards. But society, and we have a, I keep using this word, moral obligation, but we cannot operate as a society if we go that way. It’s interesting that we’ve had problems achieving balance. For example, in the financial crash in 2009, do you let banks go to the wall or not, this kind of question. In evolution, certainly, you let them go to the wall. And in that sense, you don’t need the regulation because they just die. Whereas if we as a society think about what’s required for society as a whole, then you don’t necessarily let them go to the wall, in which case you then have to impose some kind of regulation that the bankers themselves will, in an evolutionary manner, exploit.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, we’ve been struggling with this kind of idea of capitalism, the cold brutality of capitalism that seems to create so much beautiful things in this world, and then the ideals of communism that seem to create so much brutal destruction in history. We struggle with ideas of, “Well, maybe we didn’t do it right. How can we do things better,” and then the ideas are the things we’re playing with, as opposed to people. If a PhD student has a bad idea, we don’t shoot the PhD student. We just criticize their idea and hope they improve.
Yeah, we’ve been struggling with this kind of idea of capitalism, the cold brutality of capitalism that seems to create so much beautiful things in this world, and then the ideals of communism that seem to create so much brutal destruction in history. We struggle with ideas of, “Well, maybe we didn’t do it right. How can we do things better,” and then the ideas are the things we’re playing with, as opposed to people. If a PhD student has a bad idea, we don’t shoot the PhD student. We just criticize their idea and hope they improve.
Nick Lane
You have a very humane [inaudible 01:12:43].
You have a very humane [inaudible 01:12:43].
Human evolution
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Yeah. I don’t know how you guys do it. The way I run things, it’s always life and death. Okay. So it is interesting about humans that there is an inner sense of morality, which begs the question of, how did homo sapiens evolve? If we think about the early invention of sex and early invention of predation, what was the thing invented to make humans? What would you say?
Yeah. Yeah. I don’t know how you guys do it. The way I run things, it’s always life and death. Okay. So it is interesting about humans that there is an inner sense of morality, which begs the question of, how did homo sapiens evolve? If we think about the early invention of sex and early invention of predation, what was the thing invented to make humans? What would you say?
Nick Lane
I suppose a couple of things I’d say. Number one is you don’t have to wind the clock back very far, five, six million years or so, and let it run forwards again, and the chances of humans as we know them is not necessarily that high. Imagine as an alien, you find planet Earth, and it’s got everything apart from humans on it. It’s an amazing, wonderful, marvelous planet, but nothing that we would recognize as extremely intelligent life, space-faring civilization. So when we think about aliens, we’re kind of after something like ourselves or after a space-faring civilization. We’re not after zebras and giraffes and lions and things, amazing though they are. But the additional kind of evolutionary steps to go from large, complex mammals, monkeys, let’s say, to humans doesn’t strike me as that long a distance. It’s all about the brain. And where’s the brain and morality coming from? It seems to me to be all about groups, human groups and interactions between groups.
I suppose a couple of things I’d say. Number one is you don’t have to wind the clock back very far, five, six million years or so, and let it run forwards again, and the chances of humans as we know them is not necessarily that high. Imagine as an alien, you find planet Earth, and it’s got everything apart from humans on it. It’s an amazing, wonderful, marvelous planet, but nothing that we would recognize as extremely intelligent life, space-faring civilization. So when we think about aliens, we’re kind of after something like ourselves or after a space-faring civilization. We’re not after zebras and giraffes and lions and things, amazing though they are. But the additional kind of evolutionary steps to go from large, complex mammals, monkeys, let’s say, to humans doesn’t strike me as that long a distance. It’s all about the brain. And where’s the brain and morality coming from? It seems to me to be all about groups, human groups and interactions between groups.
Lex Fridman
The collective intelligence of it.
The collective intelligence of it.
Nick Lane
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Nick Lane
The interactions, really. And there’s a guy at UCL called Mark Thomas, who’s done a lot of really beautiful work, I think, on this kind of question. I talk to him every now and then, so my views are influenced by him. But a lot seems to depend on population density. The more interactions you have going on between different groups, the more transfer of information, if you like, between groups, of people moving from one group to another group, almost like lateral gene transfer in bacteria. The more expertise you’re able to develop and maintain, the more culturally complex your society can become. And groups that have become detached, like on Easter Island, for example, very often degenerate in terms of the complexity of their civilization.
The interactions, really. And there’s a guy at UCL called Mark Thomas, who’s done a lot of really beautiful work, I think, on this kind of question. I talk to him every now and then, so my views are influenced by him. But a lot seems to depend on population density. The more interactions you have going on between different groups, the more transfer of information, if you like, between groups, of people moving from one group to another group, almost like lateral gene transfer in bacteria. The more expertise you’re able to develop and maintain, the more culturally complex your society can become. And groups that have become detached, like on Easter Island, for example, very often degenerate in terms of the complexity of their civilization.
Lex Fridman
Is that true for complex organisms in general, population density-
Is that true for complex organisms in general, population density-
Nick Lane
Really matters.
Really matters.
Lex Fridman
… is often productive?
… is often productive?
Nick Lane
Really matters. But in human terms, I don’t know what the actual factors were that were driving a large brain, but you can talk about fire, you can talk about tool use, you can talk about language, and none of them seem to correlate especially well with the actual known trajectory of human evolution in terms of cave art and these kind of things. That seems to work much better just with population density in number of interactions between different groups, all of which is really about human interactions, human-human interactions, and the complexity of those.
Really matters. But in human terms, I don’t know what the actual factors were that were driving a large brain, but you can talk about fire, you can talk about tool use, you can talk about language, and none of them seem to correlate especially well with the actual known trajectory of human evolution in terms of cave art and these kind of things. That seems to work much better just with population density in number of interactions between different groups, all of which is really about human interactions, human-human interactions, and the complexity of those.
Lex Fridman
But population density is the thing that increases the number of interactions, but then there must have been inventions forced by that number of interactions that actually led to humans. So Richard Wrangham talks about that it’s basically the beta males had to beat up the alpha male, so that’s what collaboration looks like is when you’re living together, they don’t like, our early ancestors, don’t like the dictatorial aspect of a single individual at the top of a tribe, so they learn to collaborate how to basically create a democracy of sorts, a democracy that prevents, minimizes, or lessens the amount of violence, which essentially gives strength to the tribe and make the war between tribes versus the dictator [inaudible 01:16:55]-
But population density is the thing that increases the number of interactions, but then there must have been inventions forced by that number of interactions that actually led to humans. So Richard Wrangham talks about that it’s basically the beta males had to beat up the alpha male, so that’s what collaboration looks like is when you’re living together, they don’t like, our early ancestors, don’t like the dictatorial aspect of a single individual at the top of a tribe, so they learn to collaborate how to basically create a democracy of sorts, a democracy that prevents, minimizes, or lessens the amount of violence, which essentially gives strength to the tribe and make the war between tribes versus the dictator [inaudible 01:16:55]-
Nick Lane
I think one of the most wonderful things about humans is we’re all of those things. We are deeply social as a species, and we’re also deeply selfish. And it seems to me the conflict between capitalism and communism is really just two aspects of human nature, both of which are-
I think one of the most wonderful things about humans is we’re all of those things. We are deeply social as a species, and we’re also deeply selfish. And it seems to me the conflict between capitalism and communism is really just two aspects of human nature, both of which are-
Lex Fridman
We’ve got both.
We’ve got both.
Nick Lane
We have both. And we have a constant kind of vying between the two sides. We really do care about other people, beyond our families, beyond our immediate people. We care about society and the society that we live in. And you could say that’s a drawing towards socialism or communism. On the other side, we really do care about ourselves. We really do care about our families, about working for something that we gain from, and that’s the capitalist side of it. They’re both really deeply ingrained in human nature.
We have both. And we have a constant kind of vying between the two sides. We really do care about other people, beyond our families, beyond our immediate people. We care about society and the society that we live in. And you could say that’s a drawing towards socialism or communism. On the other side, we really do care about ourselves. We really do care about our families, about working for something that we gain from, and that’s the capitalist side of it. They’re both really deeply ingrained in human nature.
In terms of violence and interactions between groups, yes, all this dynamic of if you’re interacting between groups, you can be certain that they’re going to be burning each other and all kinds of physical, violent interactions as well, which will drive the kind of cleverness of, how do you resist this? Let’s build a tower. What are we going to do to prevent being overrun by those marauding gangs from over there? And you look outside humans, and you look at chimps and bonobos and so on, and they’re very, very different structures to society. Chimps tend to have an aggressive alpha male-type structure, and bonobos, there’s basically a female society, where the males are predominantly excluded and only brought in at the behest of the female. We have a lot in common with both of those groups.
Lex Fridman
And there’s, again, tension there. Probably chimps, more violence, the bonobos, probably more sex. That’s another tension. How serious do we want to be? How much fun we want to be?
And there’s, again, tension there. Probably chimps, more violence, the bonobos, probably more sex. That’s another tension. How serious do we want to be? How much fun we want to be?
Neanderthals
Asking for a friend again, what do you think happened to Neanderthals? What did we cheeky humans do to the Neanderthals, homo sapiens? Do you think we murdered them? How do we murder them? How do we out-compete them, or do we out-mate them?
Nick Lane
I don’t know. I think there’s unequivocal evidence that we mated with them.
I don’t know. I think there’s unequivocal evidence that we mated with them.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. We always try to mate with everything.
Yeah. We always try to mate with everything.
Nick Lane
Yes, pretty much. There’s some interesting… The first sequences that came along were in mitochondrial DNA, and that was back to about 2002 or thereabouts. And what was found was that Neanderthal mitochondrial DNA was very different to human mitochondrial DNA-
Yes, pretty much. There’s some interesting… The first sequences that came along were in mitochondrial DNA, and that was back to about 2002 or thereabouts. And what was found was that Neanderthal mitochondrial DNA was very different to human mitochondrial DNA-
Lex Fridman
Oh, that’s so interesting.
Oh, that’s so interesting.
Nick Lane
And you could do a clock on it, and it said the divergent state was about 600,000 years ago or something like that, so not so long ago. And then the first full genomes were sequenced maybe 10 years after that, and they showed plenty of signs of mating between. So the mitochondrial DNA effectively says no mating, and the nuclear genes say, yeah, lots of mating, but we don’t know-
And you could do a clock on it, and it said the divergent state was about 600,000 years ago or something like that, so not so long ago. And then the first full genomes were sequenced maybe 10 years after that, and they showed plenty of signs of mating between. So the mitochondrial DNA effectively says no mating, and the nuclear genes say, yeah, lots of mating, but we don’t know-
Lex Fridman
How is that possible? Sorry, can you explain the difference between mitochondrial DNA-
How is that possible? Sorry, can you explain the difference between mitochondrial DNA-
Nick Lane
Sorry, yes.
Sorry, yes.
Lex Fridman
… and nucleus?
… and nucleus?
Nick Lane
I’ve talked before about the mitochondria, which are the power packs in cells. These are the pared-down control units is their DNA. It’s passed on by the mother only. And in the egg cell, we might have half a million copies of mitochondrial DNA. There’s only 37 genes left. And it’s basically the control unit of energy production. That’s what it’s doing.
I’ve talked before about the mitochondria, which are the power packs in cells. These are the pared-down control units is their DNA. It’s passed on by the mother only. And in the egg cell, we might have half a million copies of mitochondrial DNA. There’s only 37 genes left. And it’s basically the control unit of energy production. That’s what it’s doing.
Lex Fridman
It’s a basic, old-school machine that does energy production.
It’s a basic, old-school machine that does energy production.
Nick Lane
It’s got genes that were considered to be effectively trivial because they did a very narrowly defined job, but they’re not trivial in the sense that that narrowly defined job is about everything that is being alive. So they’re much easier to sequence. You’ve got many more copies of these things, and you can sequence them very quickly.
It’s got genes that were considered to be effectively trivial because they did a very narrowly defined job, but they’re not trivial in the sense that that narrowly defined job is about everything that is being alive. So they’re much easier to sequence. You’ve got many more copies of these things, and you can sequence them very quickly.
But the problem is, because they go down only the maternal line, from mother to daughter, your mitochondrial DNA and mine, it’s going nowhere. It doesn’t matter. Any kids we have, they get their mother’s mitochondrial DNA, except in very, very rare and strange circumstances. So it tells a different story, and it’s not a story which is easy to reconcile always. And what it seems to suggest, to my mind at least, is that there was one-way traffic of genes probably going from humans into Neanderthals rather than the other way around.
Why did the Neanderthals disappear? I don’t know. I suspect they were probably less violent, less clever, less populous, less willing to fight. I don’t know. I think we probably drove them to extinction at the margins of Europe.
Lex Fridman
And it’s interesting how much, if we ran Earth over and over again, how many of these branches of intelligent beings that have figured out how to leverage collective intelligence, which ones of them emerge, which ones of them succeed? Is it the more violent ones? Is it the more isolated one? What dynamics result to more productivity? And I suppose we’ll never know. The more complex the organism, the harder it is to run the experiment in the lab.
And it’s interesting how much, if we ran Earth over and over again, how many of these branches of intelligent beings that have figured out how to leverage collective intelligence, which ones of them emerge, which ones of them succeed? Is it the more violent ones? Is it the more isolated one? What dynamics result to more productivity? And I suppose we’ll never know. The more complex the organism, the harder it is to run the experiment in the lab.
Nick Lane
Yes. And in some respects, maybe it’s best if we don’t know.
Yes. And in some respects, maybe it’s best if we don’t know.
Sensory inputs
Lex Fridman
Yeah. The truth might be very painful. What about, if we actually step back, a couple of interesting things that we humans do? One is object manipulation and movement, and of course, movement was something that was done… That was another big invention, being able to move around the environment. And the other one is this sensory mechanism, how we sense the environment. One of the coolest high-definition ones is vision. How big are those inventions in the history of life on Earth?
Yeah. The truth might be very painful. What about, if we actually step back, a couple of interesting things that we humans do? One is object manipulation and movement, and of course, movement was something that was done… That was another big invention, being able to move around the environment. And the other one is this sensory mechanism, how we sense the environment. One of the coolest high-definition ones is vision. How big are those inventions in the history of life on Earth?
Nick Lane
Vision, movement, again, extremely important going back to the origin of animals, the Cambrian explosion, where suddenly you’re seeing eyes in the fossil record. And it’s not necessarily… Again, lots of people historically have said, “What use is half an eye,” and you can go in a series of steps from a light-sensitive spot on a flat piece of tissue to an eyeball with a lens and so on if you assume no more than… I don’t remember. This was a specific model that I have in mind, but it was 1% change or half a percent change for each generation how long would it take to evolve an eye as we know it, and the answer is half a million years. It doesn’t have to take long. That’s not how evolution works. That’s not an answer to the question. It just shows you can reconstruct the steps and you can work out roughly how it can work.
Vision, movement, again, extremely important going back to the origin of animals, the Cambrian explosion, where suddenly you’re seeing eyes in the fossil record. And it’s not necessarily… Again, lots of people historically have said, “What use is half an eye,” and you can go in a series of steps from a light-sensitive spot on a flat piece of tissue to an eyeball with a lens and so on if you assume no more than… I don’t remember. This was a specific model that I have in mind, but it was 1% change or half a percent change for each generation how long would it take to evolve an eye as we know it, and the answer is half a million years. It doesn’t have to take long. That’s not how evolution works. That’s not an answer to the question. It just shows you can reconstruct the steps and you can work out roughly how it can work.
So it’s not that big a deal to evolve an eye. But once you have one, then there’s nowhere to hide. Again, we’re back to predator-prey relationships. We’re back to all the benefits that being able to see brings you. And if you think philosophically what bats are doing with ecolocation and so on, I have no idea, but I suspect that they form an image of the world in pretty much the same way that we do. It’s just a matter of mental reconstruction.
So I suppose the other thing about sight, there are single-celled organisms that have got a lens and a retina and a cornea and so on. Basically they’ve got a camera-type eye in a single cell. They don’t have a brain; what they understand about their world is impossible to say, but they’re capable of coming up with the same structures to do so. So I suppose then, is that once you’ve got things like eyes, then you have a big driving pressure on the central nervous system to figure out what it all means.
And then we come around to your other point about manipulation, sensory input, and so on about now you have a huge requirement to understand what your environment is and what it means and how it reacts and how you should run away and where you should stay put.
Lex Fridman
Actually on that point, let me… I don’t know if you know the work of Donald Hoffman, who uses the argument, the mechanism of evolution, to say that there’s not necessarily a strong evolutionary value to seeing the world as it is, so objective reality, that our perception actually is very different from what’s objectively real. We’re living inside an illusion and we’re basically… The entire set of species on Earth, I think, I guess, are competing in a space that’s an illusion that’s distinct from, that’s far away from physical reality as defined by physics.
Actually on that point, let me… I don’t know if you know the work of Donald Hoffman, who uses the argument, the mechanism of evolution, to say that there’s not necessarily a strong evolutionary value to seeing the world as it is, so objective reality, that our perception actually is very different from what’s objectively real. We’re living inside an illusion and we’re basically… The entire set of species on Earth, I think, I guess, are competing in a space that’s an illusion that’s distinct from, that’s far away from physical reality as defined by physics.
Nick Lane
I’m not sure it’s an illusion so much as a bubble. We have a sensory input, which is a fraction of what we could have a sensory input on, and we interpret it in terms of what’s useful for us to know to stay alive. So, yes, it’s an illusion in that sense, but-
I’m not sure it’s an illusion so much as a bubble. We have a sensory input, which is a fraction of what we could have a sensory input on, and we interpret it in terms of what’s useful for us to know to stay alive. So, yes, it’s an illusion in that sense, but-
Lex Fridman
So it’s a subset-
So it’s a subset-
Nick Lane
… a tree is physically there, and if you walk into that tree, it’s not purely a delusion. There’s some physical reality to it.
… a tree is physically there, and if you walk into that tree, it’s not purely a delusion. There’s some physical reality to it.
Lex Fridman
So it’s a sensory slice into reality as it is, but because it’s just a slice, you’re missing a big picture. But he says that that slice doesn’t necessarily need to be a slice. It could be a complete fabrication that’s just consistent amongst the species, which is an interesting, or at least it’s a humbling realization that our perception is limited and our cognitive abilities are limited. And at least to me, his argument from evolution, I don’t know how strong that is as an argument, but I do think that life can exist in the mind.
So it’s a sensory slice into reality as it is, but because it’s just a slice, you’re missing a big picture. But he says that that slice doesn’t necessarily need to be a slice. It could be a complete fabrication that’s just consistent amongst the species, which is an interesting, or at least it’s a humbling realization that our perception is limited and our cognitive abilities are limited. And at least to me, his argument from evolution, I don’t know how strong that is as an argument, but I do think that life can exist in the mind.
Nick Lane
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
In the same way that you can do a virtual reality video game and you can have a vibrant life inside that place, and that place is not real in some sense, but you could still have a vibe… All the same forces of evolution, all the same competition, the dynamics between humans you can have, but I don’t know if there’s evidence for that being the thing that happened on Earth. It seems that Earth-
In the same way that you can do a virtual reality video game and you can have a vibrant life inside that place, and that place is not real in some sense, but you could still have a vibe… All the same forces of evolution, all the same competition, the dynamics between humans you can have, but I don’t know if there’s evidence for that being the thing that happened on Earth. It seems that Earth-
Nick Lane
I think in either environment, I wouldn’t deny that you could have exactly the world that you talk about, and it would be very difficult to… the idea in Matrix movies and so on, that the whole world is completely a construction, and we’re fundamentally deluded. It’s difficult to say that’s impossible or couldn’t happen, and certainly we construct in our minds what the outside world is. But we do it on input, and that input, I would hesitate to say it’s not real because it’s precisely how we do understand the world. We have eyes, but if you keep someone, and apparently this kind of thing happens, someone kept in a dark room for five years or something like that, they never see properly again because the neural wiring that underpins how we interpret vision never developed.
I think in either environment, I wouldn’t deny that you could have exactly the world that you talk about, and it would be very difficult to… the idea in Matrix movies and so on, that the whole world is completely a construction, and we’re fundamentally deluded. It’s difficult to say that’s impossible or couldn’t happen, and certainly we construct in our minds what the outside world is. But we do it on input, and that input, I would hesitate to say it’s not real because it’s precisely how we do understand the world. We have eyes, but if you keep someone, and apparently this kind of thing happens, someone kept in a dark room for five years or something like that, they never see properly again because the neural wiring that underpins how we interpret vision never developed.
When you watch a child develop, it walks into a table. It bangs its head on the table and it hurts. Now you’ve got two inputs. You’ve got one pain from this sharp edge, and number two, probably you’ve touched it and realized it’s there, it’s a sharp edge, and you’ve got the visual input. And you put the three things together and think, “I don’t want to walk into a table again.” So you’re learning, and it’s a limited reality, but it’s a true reality. And if you don’t learn that properly, then you will get eaten, you will get hit by a bus, you will not survive. And same if you’re in some kind of, let’s say, computer construction of reality. I’m not in my ground here, but if you construct the laws that this is what reality is inside this, then you play by those laws.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Well, as long as the laws are consistent. So just like you said in the lab, the interesting thing about the simulation question, yes, it’s hard to know if we’re living inside a simulation, but also, yes, it’s possible to do these kinds of experiments in the lab now more and more. To me, the interesting question is, how realistic does a virtual reality game need to be for us to not be able to tell the difference? A more interesting question to me is, how realistic or interesting does the virtual reality world need to be in order for us to want to stay there forever or much longer than physical reality, prefer that place, and also prefer it not as we prefer hard drugs, but prefer it in a deep, meaningful way in the way we enjoy life itself?
Yeah. Well, as long as the laws are consistent. So just like you said in the lab, the interesting thing about the simulation question, yes, it’s hard to know if we’re living inside a simulation, but also, yes, it’s possible to do these kinds of experiments in the lab now more and more. To me, the interesting question is, how realistic does a virtual reality game need to be for us to not be able to tell the difference? A more interesting question to me is, how realistic or interesting does the virtual reality world need to be in order for us to want to stay there forever or much longer than physical reality, prefer that place, and also prefer it not as we prefer hard drugs, but prefer it in a deep, meaningful way in the way we enjoy life itself?
Nick Lane
I suppose the issue with the matrix, I imagine that it’s possible to delude the mind sufficiently that you genuinely in that way do think that you are interacting with the real world, when in fact, the whole thing’s a simulation. How good does a simulation need to be able to do that? Well, it needs to convince you that all your sensory input is correct and accurate and joins up and make sense. Now, that sensory input is not something that we’re born with. We’re born with a sense of touch. We’re born with eyes and so on, but we don’t know how to use them. We don’t know what to make of them. We go around, we bump into trees. We cry a lot. We’re in pain a lot. We’re basically booting up the system so that it can make head or tail of the sensory input that it’s getting. And that sensory input’s not just a one-way flux of things. It’s also you have to walk into things. You have to hear things. You have to put it together.
I suppose the issue with the matrix, I imagine that it’s possible to delude the mind sufficiently that you genuinely in that way do think that you are interacting with the real world, when in fact, the whole thing’s a simulation. How good does a simulation need to be able to do that? Well, it needs to convince you that all your sensory input is correct and accurate and joins up and make sense. Now, that sensory input is not something that we’re born with. We’re born with a sense of touch. We’re born with eyes and so on, but we don’t know how to use them. We don’t know what to make of them. We go around, we bump into trees. We cry a lot. We’re in pain a lot. We’re basically booting up the system so that it can make head or tail of the sensory input that it’s getting. And that sensory input’s not just a one-way flux of things. It’s also you have to walk into things. You have to hear things. You have to put it together.
Now, if you’ve got just babies in the matrix who are slotted into this, I don’t think they have that kind of sensory input. I don’t think they would have any way to make sense of New York as a world that they’re part of. The brain is just not developed in that way.
Lex Fridman
Well, I can’t make sense of New York in this physical reality either. But yeah, but you said pain and the walking into things. Well, you can create a pain signal, and as long as it’s consistent that certain things result in pain, you can start to construct a reality. Maybe you disagree with this, but I think we are born almost with a desire to be convinced by our reality, like a desire to make sense of our reality.
Well, I can’t make sense of New York in this physical reality either. But yeah, but you said pain and the walking into things. Well, you can create a pain signal, and as long as it’s consistent that certain things result in pain, you can start to construct a reality. Maybe you disagree with this, but I think we are born almost with a desire to be convinced by our reality, like a desire to make sense of our reality.
Nick Lane
Oh, I’m sure we are, yes.
Oh, I’m sure we are, yes.
Lex Fridman
So there’s an imperative… So whatever that reality is given to us, like the table hurts, fire is hot, I think we want to be deluded in the sense that we want to make a simple… Einstein’s simple theory of the thing around us, we want that simplicity. So maybe the hunger for the simplicity is the thing that could be used to construct a pretty dumb simulation that tricks us. So maybe tricking humans doesn’t require building a universe.
So there’s an imperative… So whatever that reality is given to us, like the table hurts, fire is hot, I think we want to be deluded in the sense that we want to make a simple… Einstein’s simple theory of the thing around us, we want that simplicity. So maybe the hunger for the simplicity is the thing that could be used to construct a pretty dumb simulation that tricks us. So maybe tricking humans doesn’t require building a universe.
Nick Lane
No, this is not what I work on, so I don’t know how close to it we are-
No, this is not what I work on, so I don’t know how close to it we are-
Lex Fridman
I don’t think anyone works on this.
I don’t think anyone works on this.
Nick Lane
But I agree with you-
But I agree with you-
Lex Fridman
Mark Zuckerberg.
Mark Zuckerberg.
Nick Lane
Yeah, I’m not sure that it’s a morally justifiable thing to do, but is it possible in principle? I think it’d be very difficult, but I don’t see why in principle it wouldn’t be possible. And I agree with you that we try to understand the world, we try to integrate the sensory inputs that we have, and we try to come up with a hypothesis that explains what’s going on. I think, though, that we have huge input from the social context that we’re in. We don’t do it by ourselves. We don’t kind of blunder around in a universe by ourself and understand the whole thing. We’re told by the people around us what things are and what they do, and the languages coming in here and so on. So it would have to be an extremely impressive simulation to simulate all of that.
Yeah, I’m not sure that it’s a morally justifiable thing to do, but is it possible in principle? I think it’d be very difficult, but I don’t see why in principle it wouldn’t be possible. And I agree with you that we try to understand the world, we try to integrate the sensory inputs that we have, and we try to come up with a hypothesis that explains what’s going on. I think, though, that we have huge input from the social context that we’re in. We don’t do it by ourselves. We don’t kind of blunder around in a universe by ourself and understand the whole thing. We’re told by the people around us what things are and what they do, and the languages coming in here and so on. So it would have to be an extremely impressive simulation to simulate all of that.
Consciousness
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Simulate all of that, including the social construct, the spread of ideas and the exchange of ideas. I don’t know. But those questions are really important to understand as we become more and more digital creatures. It seems like the next step of evolution is us becoming partial… All the same mechanisms we’ve talked about are becoming more and more plugged in into the machine. We’re becoming cyborgs. And there’s an interesting interplay between wires and biology, zeroes and ones and the biological systems, and I don’t think we’ll have the luxury to see humans as disjoint from the technology we’ve created for much longer. We are, in organisms, that’s [inaudible 01:33:56].
Yeah. Simulate all of that, including the social construct, the spread of ideas and the exchange of ideas. I don’t know. But those questions are really important to understand as we become more and more digital creatures. It seems like the next step of evolution is us becoming partial… All the same mechanisms we’ve talked about are becoming more and more plugged in into the machine. We’re becoming cyborgs. And there’s an interesting interplay between wires and biology, zeroes and ones and the biological systems, and I don’t think we’ll have the luxury to see humans as disjoint from the technology we’ve created for much longer. We are, in organisms, that’s [inaudible 01:33:56].
Nick Lane
Yeah. I agree with you, but we come really with this to consciousness, and is there a distinction there? Because what you are saying, the natural end point says we are indistinguishable, that if you are capable of building an AI, which is sufficiently close and similar, that we merge with it, then to all intents and purposes, that AI is conscious as we know it. And I don’t have a strong view, but I have a view, and I wrote about it in the epilogue to my last book.
Yeah. I agree with you, but we come really with this to consciousness, and is there a distinction there? Because what you are saying, the natural end point says we are indistinguishable, that if you are capable of building an AI, which is sufficiently close and similar, that we merge with it, then to all intents and purposes, that AI is conscious as we know it. And I don’t have a strong view, but I have a view, and I wrote about it in the epilogue to my last book.
Because 10 years ago I wrote a chapter in a book called Life Ascending about consciousness. And the subtitle of Life Ascending was The Ten Great Inventions of Evolution, and I couldn’t possibly write a book with a subtitle like that that did not include consciousness, and specifically consciousness as one of the great inventions. And it was in part because I was just curious to know more and I read more for that chapter. I never worked on it, but I’ve always… How can anyone not be interested in the question?
And I was left with the feeling that, A, nobody knows, and B, there are two main schools of thought out there with a big kind of skew in distribution. One of them says, oh, it’s a property of matter. It’s an unknown law of physics. Panpsychism, everything is conscious. The sun is conscious. It’s just a matter… A rock is conscious. It’s just a matter of how much. And I find that very unpersuasive. I can’t say that it’s wrong. It’s just that I think we somehow can tell the difference between something that’s living and something that’s not. And then the other end is it’s an emergent property of a very complex, central nervous system. I never quite understand what people mean by words like emergence. There are genuine examples, but I think we very often tend to-
Nick Lane
…and examples, but I think we very often tend to use it to plaster over ignorance. As a biochemist. The question for me then was, okay, so it’s a concoction of a central nervous system. A depolarizing neuron gives rise to a feeling, to a feeling of pain or to a feeling of love or anger, or whatever it may be. So what is then a feeling in biophysical terms in the central nervous system, which bit of the wiring gives rise to, and I’ve never seen anyone answer that question in a way that makes sense to me.
…and examples, but I think we very often tend to use it to plaster over ignorance. As a biochemist. The question for me then was, okay, so it’s a concoction of a central nervous system. A depolarizing neuron gives rise to a feeling, to a feeling of pain or to a feeling of love or anger, or whatever it may be. So what is then a feeling in biophysical terms in the central nervous system, which bit of the wiring gives rise to, and I’ve never seen anyone answer that question in a way that makes sense to me.
Lex Fridman
And that’s an important question to answer.
And that’s an important question to answer.
Nick Lane
I think if we want to understand consciousness, that’s the only question to answer because certainly an AI is capable of out-thinking and it is only a matter of time. Maybe it’s already happened in terms of just information processing and computational skill. I don’t think we have any problem in designing a mind, which is at least the equal of the human mind. But in terms of what we value the most as humans, which is to say our feelings, our emotions, our sense of what the world is in a very personal way that I think means as much or more to people than their information processing. And that’s where I don’t think that AI necessarily will become conscious because I think it’s the property of life.
I think if we want to understand consciousness, that’s the only question to answer because certainly an AI is capable of out-thinking and it is only a matter of time. Maybe it’s already happened in terms of just information processing and computational skill. I don’t think we have any problem in designing a mind, which is at least the equal of the human mind. But in terms of what we value the most as humans, which is to say our feelings, our emotions, our sense of what the world is in a very personal way that I think means as much or more to people than their information processing. And that’s where I don’t think that AI necessarily will become conscious because I think it’s the property of life.
Lex Fridman
Well, let’s talk about it more. You’re an incredible writer, one of my favorite writers. So let me read from your latest book, Transformer is what you write about consciousness. “‘I think therefore I am,’ said Descartes is one of the most celebrated lines ever written. But what am I, exactly? And artificial intelligence can think too by definition and therefore is yet few of us could agree whether AI is capable in principle of anything resembling human emotions, of love or hate, fear and joy, of spiritual yearning, for oneness or oblivion, or corporeal pangs of thirst and hunger. The problem is we don’t know what emotions are,” as you were saying, “What is the feeling in physical terms? How does a discharging neuron give rise to a feeling of anything at all? This is the ‘hard problem’ of consciousness, the seeming duality of mind and matter, the physical makeup of our innermost self. We can understand in principle how an extremely sophisticated parallel processing system could be capable of wondrous feats of intelligence. But we can’t answer in principle whether such a supreme intelligence would experience joy or melancholy. What is the quantum of solace?”
Well, let’s talk about it more. You’re an incredible writer, one of my favorite writers. So let me read from your latest book, Transformer is what you write about consciousness. “‘I think therefore I am,’ said Descartes is one of the most celebrated lines ever written. But what am I, exactly? And artificial intelligence can think too by definition and therefore is yet few of us could agree whether AI is capable in principle of anything resembling human emotions, of love or hate, fear and joy, of spiritual yearning, for oneness or oblivion, or corporeal pangs of thirst and hunger. The problem is we don’t know what emotions are,” as you were saying, “What is the feeling in physical terms? How does a discharging neuron give rise to a feeling of anything at all? This is the ‘hard problem’ of consciousness, the seeming duality of mind and matter, the physical makeup of our innermost self. We can understand in principle how an extremely sophisticated parallel processing system could be capable of wondrous feats of intelligence. But we can’t answer in principle whether such a supreme intelligence would experience joy or melancholy. What is the quantum of solace?”
Speaking to the question of emergence, there’s just technical… There’s an excellent paper on this recently about this phase transition emergence of performance in neural networks on problem of NLP, natural language processing. So language models, there seems to be this question of size. At some point, there is a phase transition as you grow the size of the neural network. So the question is, this is somewhat of a technical question that you can philosophize over.
The technical question is, is there a size of a neural network that starts to be able to form the kind of representations that can capture a language and therefore be able to not just language, but linguistically capture knowledge that’s sufficient to solve a lot of problems in language? Like be able to have a conversation and there seems to be not a gradual increase, but a phase transition and they’re trying to construct the science of where that is, what is a good size of a neural network and why does such a face transition happen. Anyway, that points to emergence that there could be stages where a thing goes from being you’re very intelligent toaster to a toaster that’s feeling sad today and turns away and looks out the window sighing having an existential crisis.
Nick Lane
I’m thinking of Marvin The Paranoid Android.
I’m thinking of Marvin The Paranoid Android.
Lex Fridman
Well, no, Marvin is simplistic because Marvin is just cranky.
Well, no, Marvin is simplistic because Marvin is just cranky.
Nick Lane
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
He’s-
He’s-
Nick Lane
So easily programmed.
So easily programmed.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Easily programmed. Non-stop existential crisis. You’re almost basically… What is it? Notes From Underground by Dostoevsky like just constantly complaining about life. No, capturing the full rollercoaster of human emotion, the excitement, the bliss, the connection, the empathy, and all that kind of stuff. And then the selfishness, the anger, the depression, all that kind of stuff. Capturing all of that and be able to experience it deeply. It’s the most important thing you could possibly experience today. The highest highs. The lowest lows. This is it. My life will be over. I cannot possibly go on that feeling and then after a nap, you’re feeling amazing. That might be something that emerges.
Yeah. Easily programmed. Non-stop existential crisis. You’re almost basically… What is it? Notes From Underground by Dostoevsky like just constantly complaining about life. No, capturing the full rollercoaster of human emotion, the excitement, the bliss, the connection, the empathy, and all that kind of stuff. And then the selfishness, the anger, the depression, all that kind of stuff. Capturing all of that and be able to experience it deeply. It’s the most important thing you could possibly experience today. The highest highs. The lowest lows. This is it. My life will be over. I cannot possibly go on that feeling and then after a nap, you’re feeling amazing. That might be something that emerges.
Nick Lane
So why would a nap make an AI being feel better?
So why would a nap make an AI being feel better?
Lex Fridman
First of all, we don’t know that for a human either, right?
First of all, we don’t know that for a human either, right?
Nick Lane
But we do know that that’s actually true for many people much of the time. Maybe you’re utterly depressed and you have a nap and you do in fact feel better.
But we do know that that’s actually true for many people much of the time. Maybe you’re utterly depressed and you have a nap and you do in fact feel better.
Lex Fridman
Oh, you are actually asking the technical question there is… So there’s a biological answer to that. And so the question is whether AI needs to have the same kind of attachments to its body, bodily function, and preservation of the brain’s successful function. Self-preservation essentially in some deep biological sense.
Oh, you are actually asking the technical question there is… So there’s a biological answer to that. And so the question is whether AI needs to have the same kind of attachments to its body, bodily function, and preservation of the brain’s successful function. Self-preservation essentially in some deep biological sense.
Nick Lane
I mean to my mind it comes back round to the problem we were talking about before about simulations and sensory input and learning what all of this stuff means and life and death. That biology, unlike society, has a death penalty over everything. And natural selection works on that death penalty that if you make this decision wrongly, you die. And the next generation is represented by beings that made a slightly different decision on balance. And that is something that’s intrinsically difficult to simulate in all its richness I would say. So what is-
I mean to my mind it comes back round to the problem we were talking about before about simulations and sensory input and learning what all of this stuff means and life and death. That biology, unlike society, has a death penalty over everything. And natural selection works on that death penalty that if you make this decision wrongly, you die. And the next generation is represented by beings that made a slightly different decision on balance. And that is something that’s intrinsically difficult to simulate in all its richness I would say. So what is-
Lex Fridman
Death in all its richness. Our relationship with death or the whole of it? So when you say richness, of course, there’s a lot in that which is hard to simulate. What’s part of the richness that’s hard to simulate?
Death in all its richness. Our relationship with death or the whole of it? So when you say richness, of course, there’s a lot in that which is hard to simulate. What’s part of the richness that’s hard to simulate?
Nick Lane
I suppose the complexity of the environment and your position or the position of an organism in that environment, in the full richness of that environment over its entire life, over multiple generations with changes in gene sequence over those generations. So slight changes in the makeup of those individuals over generations. But if you take it back to the level of single cells, which I do in the book, and ask how does a single cell in effect know it exists as a unit, as an entity. I mean, ‘no’, obviously it doesn’t know anything, but it acts as a unit and it acts with astonishing precision as a unit. And I had suggested that that’s linked to the electrical fields on the membranes themselves and that they give some indication of how am I doing in relation to my environment as a real-time feedback on the world.
I suppose the complexity of the environment and your position or the position of an organism in that environment, in the full richness of that environment over its entire life, over multiple generations with changes in gene sequence over those generations. So slight changes in the makeup of those individuals over generations. But if you take it back to the level of single cells, which I do in the book, and ask how does a single cell in effect know it exists as a unit, as an entity. I mean, ‘no’, obviously it doesn’t know anything, but it acts as a unit and it acts with astonishing precision as a unit. And I had suggested that that’s linked to the electrical fields on the membranes themselves and that they give some indication of how am I doing in relation to my environment as a real-time feedback on the world.
And this is something physical which can be selected over generations that if you get this wrong, it’s linked with this set of circumstances that I’ve just… As an individual, I have a moment of blind panic and run. As a bacterium or something you have some electrical discharge that says blind panic and it runs whatever it may be. And you associate over generations, multiple generations that this electrical phase that I’m in now is associated with a response like that. And it’s easy to see how feelings come in through the back door almost with that kind of giving real-time feedback on your position in the world in relation to how am I doing?
And then you complexify the system and yes, I have no problem with phase transition. And can all of this be done purely by the language, by the issues with how the system understands itself? Maybe it can, I honestly don’t know, but the philosophers for a long time have talked about the possibility that you can have zombie intelligence and that there are no feelings there, but everything else is the same. I mean I have to throw this back to you really. How do you deal with the zombie intelligence?
Lex Fridman
So first of all, I can see that from a biologist perspective, you think of all the complexities that led up to the human being, the entirety of the history of four billion years that in some deep sense integrated the human being into this environment and that dance of the organism and the environment. You could see how emotions arise from that and then our emotions are deeply connected and creating a human experience and from that you mix in consciousness and the full mess of it. But from a perspective of an intelligent organism that’s already here like a baby that learns it doesn’t need to learn how to be a collection of cells or how to do all the things he needs to do. The basic function of a baby, as it learns, is to interact with its environment, to learn from its environment, to learn how to fit into the social society.
So first of all, I can see that from a biologist perspective, you think of all the complexities that led up to the human being, the entirety of the history of four billion years that in some deep sense integrated the human being into this environment and that dance of the organism and the environment. You could see how emotions arise from that and then our emotions are deeply connected and creating a human experience and from that you mix in consciousness and the full mess of it. But from a perspective of an intelligent organism that’s already here like a baby that learns it doesn’t need to learn how to be a collection of cells or how to do all the things he needs to do. The basic function of a baby, as it learns, is to interact with its environment, to learn from its environment, to learn how to fit into the social society.
Nick Lane
And the basic response of the baby is to cry a lot of the time.
And the basic response of the baby is to cry a lot of the time.
Lex Fridman
Cry. Well maybe convinced the humans to protect it or to discipline it, to teach it, whatever. I mean we’ve developed a bunch of different tricks, how to get our parents to take care of us, to educate us, to teach us about the world. Also, we’ve constructed the world in such a way that it’s safe enough for us to survive in and yet dangerous enough to learn the valuable lessons they are still hard with corners, so we can still run into them. It hurts like hell. So AI needs to solve that problem, not the problem of constructing this super complex organism that leads up to run the whole… To make an apple pie, to build the whole universe. You need to build a whole universe. I think the zombie question is, it’s something I would leave to the philosophers because, and I will also leave to them the definition of love and what happens between two human beings when there’s a magic that just grabs them like nothing else matters in the world.
Cry. Well maybe convinced the humans to protect it or to discipline it, to teach it, whatever. I mean we’ve developed a bunch of different tricks, how to get our parents to take care of us, to educate us, to teach us about the world. Also, we’ve constructed the world in such a way that it’s safe enough for us to survive in and yet dangerous enough to learn the valuable lessons they are still hard with corners, so we can still run into them. It hurts like hell. So AI needs to solve that problem, not the problem of constructing this super complex organism that leads up to run the whole… To make an apple pie, to build the whole universe. You need to build a whole universe. I think the zombie question is, it’s something I would leave to the philosophers because, and I will also leave to them the definition of love and what happens between two human beings when there’s a magic that just grabs them like nothing else matters in the world.
And somehow you’ve been searching for this feeling, this moment, this person your whole life, that feeling. The philosophers can have a lot of fun with that one. And also say that that’s just… You could have a biological explanation, you could have all kinds of… It’s all fake. It’s actually Ayn Rand will say it’s all selfish. There’s a lot of different interpretations. I’ll leave it to the philosophers. The point is the feeling sure as hell feels very real. And if my toaster makes me feel like it’s the only toaster in the world, and when I leave and I miss the toaster and when I come back, I’m excited to see the toaster and my life is meaningful and joyful and the friends I have around me get a better version of me because that toaster exists. That sure as hell feels-
Nick Lane
I mean-
I mean-
Lex Fridman
…conscious toaster.
…conscious toaster.
Nick Lane
…is that psychologically different to having a dog?
…is that psychologically different to having a dog?
Lex Fridman
No.
No.
Nick Lane
Because I mean most people would dispute whether we can say a dog… I would say a dog is undoubtedly conscious, but some people would say-
Because I mean most people would dispute whether we can say a dog… I would say a dog is undoubtedly conscious, but some people would say-
Lex Fridman
But there’s degrees of consciousness and so on. But people are definitely much more uncomfortable saying a toaster can be conscious than a dog. And there’s still a deep connection. And you could say our relationship with the dog has more to do with anthropomorphism. Like we kind of project the human being onto it.
But there’s degrees of consciousness and so on. But people are definitely much more uncomfortable saying a toaster can be conscious than a dog. And there’s still a deep connection. And you could say our relationship with the dog has more to do with anthropomorphism. Like we kind of project the human being onto it.
Nick Lane
Maybe.
Maybe.
Lex Fridman
We can do the same damn thing with a toaster.
We can do the same damn thing with a toaster.
Nick Lane
Yes, but you can look into the dog’s eyes and you can see that it’s sad, that it’s delighted to see you again. I don’t have a dog by the way. It’s not that I’m a dog person. I’m a cat person-
Yes, but you can look into the dog’s eyes and you can see that it’s sad, that it’s delighted to see you again. I don’t have a dog by the way. It’s not that I’m a dog person. I’m a cat person-
Lex Fridman
And dogs are actually incredibly good at using their eyes to do just that.
And dogs are actually incredibly good at using their eyes to do just that.
Nick Lane
They are. Now, I don’t imagine that a dog is remotely as close to being intelligent as an AI intelligence, but it’s certainly capable of communicating emotionally with us.
They are. Now, I don’t imagine that a dog is remotely as close to being intelligent as an AI intelligence, but it’s certainly capable of communicating emotionally with us.
Lex Fridman
But here’s what I would venture to say. We tend to think because AI plays chess well and is able to fold proteins now, well that it’s intelligent. I would argue that in order to communicate with humans, in order to have emotional intelligence, it actually requires another order of magnitude of intelligence. It’s not easy to be flawed. Solving a mathematical puzzle is not the same as the full complexity of human-to-human interaction. That’s actually we humans just take for granted the things we’re really good at. Nonstop people tell me how shitty people are at driving. No, humans are incredible at driving. Bipedal walking, walking, object, manipulation. We’re incredible at this. And so people tend to-
But here’s what I would venture to say. We tend to think because AI plays chess well and is able to fold proteins now, well that it’s intelligent. I would argue that in order to communicate with humans, in order to have emotional intelligence, it actually requires another order of magnitude of intelligence. It’s not easy to be flawed. Solving a mathematical puzzle is not the same as the full complexity of human-to-human interaction. That’s actually we humans just take for granted the things we’re really good at. Nonstop people tell me how shitty people are at driving. No, humans are incredible at driving. Bipedal walking, walking, object, manipulation. We’re incredible at this. And so people tend to-
Nick Lane
Discount the things we all just take for granted.
Discount the things we all just take for granted.
Lex Fridman
And one of those things that they discount is our ability, the dance of conversation and interaction with each other, the ability to morph ideas together, the ability to get angry at each other and then to miss each other, to create a tension that makes life fun and difficult and challenging in a way that’s meaningful, that is a skill that’s learned and AI would need to solve that problem.
And one of those things that they discount is our ability, the dance of conversation and interaction with each other, the ability to morph ideas together, the ability to get angry at each other and then to miss each other, to create a tension that makes life fun and difficult and challenging in a way that’s meaningful, that is a skill that’s learned and AI would need to solve that problem.
Nick Lane
I mean, in some sense what you’re saying is AI cannot become meaningfully emotional, let’s say, until it experiences some kind of internal conflict that it’s unable to reconcile these various aspects of reality or its reality with a decision to make. And then it feels sad necessarily because it doesn’t know what to do. I certainly can’t dispute that. That may very well be how it works. I think the only way to find out is to do it and-
I mean, in some sense what you’re saying is AI cannot become meaningfully emotional, let’s say, until it experiences some kind of internal conflict that it’s unable to reconcile these various aspects of reality or its reality with a decision to make. And then it feels sad necessarily because it doesn’t know what to do. I certainly can’t dispute that. That may very well be how it works. I think the only way to find out is to do it and-
Lex Fridman
And to build it and leave it to the philosophers if it actually feels sad or not. The point is the robot will be sitting there alone having an internal conflict, an existential crisis, and that’s required for it to have a deep meaningful connection with another human being. Now does it actually feel that? I don’t know.
And to build it and leave it to the philosophers if it actually feels sad or not. The point is the robot will be sitting there alone having an internal conflict, an existential crisis, and that’s required for it to have a deep meaningful connection with another human being. Now does it actually feel that? I don’t know.
Nick Lane
But I’d like to throw something else at you which troubles me on reading it. Noah Harari’s book 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. And he’s written about this kind of thing on various occasions and he sees biochemistry as an algorithm and then AI will necessarily be able to hack that algorithm and do it better than humans. So there will be AI better at writing music that we appreciate, the Mozart ever could, or writing better than Shakespeare ever did, and so on, because biochemistry is algorithmic and all you need to do is figure out which bits of the algorithm to play to make us feel good or bad or appreciate things. And as a biochemist, I find that argument close to irrefutable and not very enjoyable. I don’t like the sound of it, that’s just my reaction as a human being. You might like the sound of it because that says that AI is capable of the same kind of emotional feelings about the world as we are because the whole thing is an algorithm and you can program an algorithm and there you are. He then has a peculiar final chapter where he talks about consciousness in rather separate terms and he’s talking about meditating and so on and getting in touch with his inner conscious. I don’t meditate, I don’t know anything about that. But he wrote in very different terms about it as if somehow it’s a way out of the algorithm. Now it seems to me that consciousness in that sense is capable of scuppering the algorithm. I think in terms of the biochemical feedback loops and so on, it is undoubtedly algorithmic. But in terms of what we decide to do, it can be much more… Based on an emotion we can just think, ah, I don’t care. I can’t resolve this complex situation.
But I’d like to throw something else at you which troubles me on reading it. Noah Harari’s book 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. And he’s written about this kind of thing on various occasions and he sees biochemistry as an algorithm and then AI will necessarily be able to hack that algorithm and do it better than humans. So there will be AI better at writing music that we appreciate, the Mozart ever could, or writing better than Shakespeare ever did, and so on, because biochemistry is algorithmic and all you need to do is figure out which bits of the algorithm to play to make us feel good or bad or appreciate things. And as a biochemist, I find that argument close to irrefutable and not very enjoyable. I don’t like the sound of it, that’s just my reaction as a human being. You might like the sound of it because that says that AI is capable of the same kind of emotional feelings about the world as we are because the whole thing is an algorithm and you can program an algorithm and there you are. He then has a peculiar final chapter where he talks about consciousness in rather separate terms and he’s talking about meditating and so on and getting in touch with his inner conscious. I don’t meditate, I don’t know anything about that. But he wrote in very different terms about it as if somehow it’s a way out of the algorithm. Now it seems to me that consciousness in that sense is capable of scuppering the algorithm. I think in terms of the biochemical feedback loops and so on, it is undoubtedly algorithmic. But in terms of what we decide to do, it can be much more… Based on an emotion we can just think, ah, I don’t care. I can’t resolve this complex situation.
I’m going to do that. And that can be based on in effect a different currency, which is the currency of feelings and something where we don’t have very much personal control over. And then it comes back around to you and what are you trying to get at with AI? Do we need to have some system which is capable of overriding a rational decision which cannot be made because there’s too much conflicting information by effectively an emotional judgmental decision that just says do this and see what happens? That’s what consciousness is really doing in my view.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And the question is whether it’s a different process or just a higher-level process. The idea that biochemistry is an algorithm is to me an oversimplistic view. There’s a lot of things that the moment you say it it’s irrefutable, but it simplifies-
Yeah. And the question is whether it’s a different process or just a higher-level process. The idea that biochemistry is an algorithm is to me an oversimplistic view. There’s a lot of things that the moment you say it it’s irrefutable, but it simplifies-
Nick Lane
I’m sure it’s an extremely complex-
I’m sure it’s an extremely complex-
Lex Fridman
…and in the process loses something fundamental. So for example, calling a universe an information processing system. Sure, yes, you can make that. It’s a computer that’s performing computations, but you’re missing the process of the entropy somehow leading to pockets of complexity that creates these beautiful artifacts that are incredibly complex and they’re like machines. And then those machines are through the process of evolution are constructing even further complexity. Like in calling universe information a processing machine, you’re missing those little local pockets and how difficult it’s to create them.
…and in the process loses something fundamental. So for example, calling a universe an information processing system. Sure, yes, you can make that. It’s a computer that’s performing computations, but you’re missing the process of the entropy somehow leading to pockets of complexity that creates these beautiful artifacts that are incredibly complex and they’re like machines. And then those machines are through the process of evolution are constructing even further complexity. Like in calling universe information a processing machine, you’re missing those little local pockets and how difficult it’s to create them.
So the question to me is if biochemistry is an algorithm, how difficult is it to create a software system that runs the human body, which I think is incorrect? I think that is going to take so long, I mean, that’s going to be centuries from now to be able to reconstruct a human. Now what I would venture to say, to get some of the magic of a human being, what we’re saying with the emotions and the interactions and like a dog makes a smile and joyful and all those kinds of things, that will come much sooner. But that doesn’t require us to reverse engineer the algorithm of biochemistry.
Nick Lane
Yes, but the toaster is making you happy.
Yes, but the toaster is making you happy.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Nick Lane
It’s not about whether you make the toaster happy.
It’s not about whether you make the toaster happy.
Lex Fridman
No, it has to be. It has to be. It has to be. The toaster has to be able to leave me happy.
No, it has to be. It has to be. It has to be. The toaster has to be able to leave me happy.
Nick Lane
The toaster has to be happy. Yes. But it’s the toaster is the AI in this case is a very intelligent-
The toaster has to be happy. Yes. But it’s the toaster is the AI in this case is a very intelligent-
Lex Fridman
Yeah. The toaster has to be able to be unhappy and leave me. That’s essential.
Yeah. The toaster has to be able to be unhappy and leave me. That’s essential.
Nick Lane
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s essential for my being able to miss the toaster. If the toaster is just my servant that’s not, or a provider of services like tells me the weather makes toast, that’s not going to deep connection. It has to have internal conflict. You write about life and death. It has to be able to be conscious of its mortality and the finiteness of its existence and that life is for its temporary and therefore it needs to be more selective with the kind of people it hangs out with.
That’s essential for my being able to miss the toaster. If the toaster is just my servant that’s not, or a provider of services like tells me the weather makes toast, that’s not going to deep connection. It has to have internal conflict. You write about life and death. It has to be able to be conscious of its mortality and the finiteness of its existence and that life is for its temporary and therefore it needs to be more selective with the kind of people it hangs out with.
Nick Lane
One of the most moving moments in the movies from when I was a boy was the unplugging of HAL in 2001 where that was the death of a sentient being and HAL knew it. So I think we all kind of know that a sufficiently intelligent being is going to have some form of consciousness, but whether it would be like biological consciousness, I just don’t know. And if you’re thinking about how do we bring together, I mean obviously we’re going to interact more closely with AI, but are we really? Is a dog really like a toaster or is there really some kind of difference there? You were talking biochemistry is algorithmic, but it’s not single algorithm and it’s very complex. Of course, it is. So it may be that there are again conflicts in the circuits of biochemistry, but I have a feeling that the level of complexity of the total biochemical system at the level of a single cell is less complex than the level of neural networking in the human brain or in an AI.
One of the most moving moments in the movies from when I was a boy was the unplugging of HAL in 2001 where that was the death of a sentient being and HAL knew it. So I think we all kind of know that a sufficiently intelligent being is going to have some form of consciousness, but whether it would be like biological consciousness, I just don’t know. And if you’re thinking about how do we bring together, I mean obviously we’re going to interact more closely with AI, but are we really? Is a dog really like a toaster or is there really some kind of difference there? You were talking biochemistry is algorithmic, but it’s not single algorithm and it’s very complex. Of course, it is. So it may be that there are again conflicts in the circuits of biochemistry, but I have a feeling that the level of complexity of the total biochemical system at the level of a single cell is less complex than the level of neural networking in the human brain or in an AI.
Lex Fridman
Well, I guess I assumed that we were including the brain in the biochemistry algorithm because you have to-
Well, I guess I assumed that we were including the brain in the biochemistry algorithm because you have to-
Nick Lane
I would see that as a higher level of organization of neural networks. They’re all using the same biochemical wiring within themselves.
I would see that as a higher level of organization of neural networks. They’re all using the same biochemical wiring within themselves.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But the human brain is not just neurons, it’s the immune system. It’s the whole package. I mean, to have a biochemical algorithm that runs an intelligent biological system, you have to include the whole damn thing. And it’s pretty fascinating. It comes from an embryo. The whole… I mean boy. I mean if you can… What is the human being? Because it’s-
Yeah. But the human brain is not just neurons, it’s the immune system. It’s the whole package. I mean, to have a biochemical algorithm that runs an intelligent biological system, you have to include the whole damn thing. And it’s pretty fascinating. It comes from an embryo. The whole… I mean boy. I mean if you can… What is the human being? Because it’s-
Nick Lane
But if you look-
But if you look-
Lex Fridman
…just some code. And then, so DNA doesn’t just tell you what to build, but how to build it. I mean the thing is impressive and the question is how difficult is it to reverse engineer the whole shebang?
…just some code. And then, so DNA doesn’t just tell you what to build, but how to build it. I mean the thing is impressive and the question is how difficult is it to reverse engineer the whole shebang?
Nick Lane
Very difficult.
Very difficult.
Lex Fridman
I would say it’s… I don’t want to say impossible, but it’s much easier to build a human than to reverse engineer… To build a fake human, human-like thing than to reverse engineer the entirety of the process, the evolution of that.
I would say it’s… I don’t want to say impossible, but it’s much easier to build a human than to reverse engineer… To build a fake human, human-like thing than to reverse engineer the entirety of the process, the evolution of that.
Nick Lane
I’m not sure if we are capable of reverse-engineering the whole thing. If the human mind is capable of doing that. I mean I wouldn’t be a biologist if I wasn’t trying, But I know I can’t understand the whole problem. I’m just trying to understand the rudimentary outlines of the problem. There’s another aspect though, you’re talking about developing from a single cell to the human mind and all the subsystems that are part of the immune system and so on. This is something that you’ll talk about I imagine with Michael Levin, but so little is known about… You talk about reverse engineers. So little is known about the developmental pathways that go from a genome to going to a fully wired organism. And a lot of it seems to depend on the same electrical interactions that I was talking about happening at the level of single cells and its interaction with the environment. There’s a whole electrical field side to biology that is not yet written into any of the textbooks, which is about how does an embryo develop into or a single cell develop into these complex systems.
I’m not sure if we are capable of reverse-engineering the whole thing. If the human mind is capable of doing that. I mean I wouldn’t be a biologist if I wasn’t trying, But I know I can’t understand the whole problem. I’m just trying to understand the rudimentary outlines of the problem. There’s another aspect though, you’re talking about developing from a single cell to the human mind and all the subsystems that are part of the immune system and so on. This is something that you’ll talk about I imagine with Michael Levin, but so little is known about… You talk about reverse engineers. So little is known about the developmental pathways that go from a genome to going to a fully wired organism. And a lot of it seems to depend on the same electrical interactions that I was talking about happening at the level of single cells and its interaction with the environment. There’s a whole electrical field side to biology that is not yet written into any of the textbooks, which is about how does an embryo develop into or a single cell develop into these complex systems.
What defines the head, what defines the immune system, what defines the brain, and so on? That really is written in a language that we’re only just beginning to understand. And frankly biologists, most biologists are still very reluctant to even get themselves tangled up in questions like electrical fields influencing development. It seems like mumbo jumbo to a lot of biologists and it should not be because this is the 21st century biology. This is where it’s going, but we’re not going to reverse engineer a human being or the mind or any of these subsystems until we understand how this developmental processes work, how electricity and biology really works, and if it is linked with feelings or with consciousness and so on. In the meantime, we have to try, but I think that’s where the answer lies.
Lex Fridman
So you think it’s possible that the key to things like consciousness are some of the more tricky aspects of cognition might lie in that early development, the interaction of electricity and biology? Electrical fields, oh God.
So you think it’s possible that the key to things like consciousness are some of the more tricky aspects of cognition might lie in that early development, the interaction of electricity and biology? Electrical fields, oh God.
Nick Lane
But we already know the EEG and so on is telling us a lot about brain function, but we don’t know which cells, which parts of a neural network is giving rise to the EEG. We don’t know the basics. The assumption is, I mean we know it’s neural networks, we know it’s multiple cells, hundreds or thousands of cells involved in it, and we assume that it’s to do with depolarization during action potentials and so on. But the mitochondria which are in there have much more membranes than the plasma membrane of the neuron.
But we already know the EEG and so on is telling us a lot about brain function, but we don’t know which cells, which parts of a neural network is giving rise to the EEG. We don’t know the basics. The assumption is, I mean we know it’s neural networks, we know it’s multiple cells, hundreds or thousands of cells involved in it, and we assume that it’s to do with depolarization during action potentials and so on. But the mitochondria which are in there have much more membranes than the plasma membrane of the neuron.
And there’s a much greater membrane potential and it’s formed in, very often parallel Christi, which are capable of reinforcing a field and generating fields over longer distances. And nobody knows if that plays a role in consciousness or not. There’s reasons to argue that it could, but frankly, we simply do not know and it’s not taken into consideration. You look at the structure of the mitochondrial membranes in the brains of simple things like Drosophila, the fruit fly, and they have amazing structures. You can see lots of little rectangular things all lined up in amazing patterns. What are they doing? Why are they like that? We haven’t the first clue.
Lex Fridman
What do you think about organoids and brain organoids and so in a lab trying to study the development of these in the Petri dish development of organs, do you think that’s promising or do you have to look at the whole systems?
What do you think about organoids and brain organoids and so in a lab trying to study the development of these in the Petri dish development of organs, do you think that’s promising or do you have to look at the whole systems?
Nick Lane
I’ve never done anything like that. I don’t know much about it. The people who I’ve talked to who do work on it say amazing things can happen and a bit of a brain grown in a dish is capable of experiencing some kind of feelings or even memories of its former brain. Again, I have a feeling that until we understand how to control the electrical fields that control development, we’re not going to understand how to turn an organoid into a real functional system.
I’ve never done anything like that. I don’t know much about it. The people who I’ve talked to who do work on it say amazing things can happen and a bit of a brain grown in a dish is capable of experiencing some kind of feelings or even memories of its former brain. Again, I have a feeling that until we understand how to control the electrical fields that control development, we’re not going to understand how to turn an organoid into a real functional system.
AI and biology
Lex Fridman
But how do we get that understanding? It’s so incredibly difficult. I mean, you would have to… One promising direction, I’d love to get your opinion on this. I don’t know if you’re familiar with the work of DeepMind and AlphaFold with protein folding and so on. Do you think it’s possible that that will give us some breakthroughs in biology trying to basically simulate and model the behavior of trivial biological systems as they become complex biological systems?
But how do we get that understanding? It’s so incredibly difficult. I mean, you would have to… One promising direction, I’d love to get your opinion on this. I don’t know if you’re familiar with the work of DeepMind and AlphaFold with protein folding and so on. Do you think it’s possible that that will give us some breakthroughs in biology trying to basically simulate and model the behavior of trivial biological systems as they become complex biological systems?
Nick Lane
I’m sure it will. The interesting thing to me about protein folding is that for a long time, my understanding, this is not what I work on, so I may have got this wrong, but my understanding is that you take the sequence of a protein and you try to fold it, and there are multiple ways in which it can fold. And to come up with the correct confirmation is not a very easy thing because you’re doing it from first principles from a string of letters, which specify the string of amino acids. But what actually happens is when a protein is coming out of a ribosome, it’s coming out of a charged tunnel and it’s in a very specific environment which is going to force this to go there now and then this one to go there and this one to come like that. And so you’re forcing a specific conformational set of changes onto it as it comes out of the ribosome.
I’m sure it will. The interesting thing to me about protein folding is that for a long time, my understanding, this is not what I work on, so I may have got this wrong, but my understanding is that you take the sequence of a protein and you try to fold it, and there are multiple ways in which it can fold. And to come up with the correct confirmation is not a very easy thing because you’re doing it from first principles from a string of letters, which specify the string of amino acids. But what actually happens is when a protein is coming out of a ribosome, it’s coming out of a charged tunnel and it’s in a very specific environment which is going to force this to go there now and then this one to go there and this one to come like that. And so you’re forcing a specific conformational set of changes onto it as it comes out of the ribosome.
So by the time it’s fully emerged, it’s already got its shape. And that shape depended on the immediate environment that it was emerging into one letter, one amino acid at a time. And I don’t think that the field was looking at it that way. And if that’s correct, then that’s very characteristic of science, which is to say it asks very often the wrong question and then does really amazingly sophisticated analyses on something having never thought to actually think, well, what is biology doing? And biology is giving you a charged electrical environment that forces you to be this way. Now did DeepMind come up through patterns with some answer that was like that? I’ve got absolutely no idea. It ought to be possible to deduce that from the shapes of proteins. It would require much greater skill than the human mind has. But the human mind is capable of saying, “Well, hang on, let’s look at this exit tunnel and try and work out what shape is this protein going to take.” And we can figure that out.
Lex Fridman
Well, that’s really interesting about the exit tunnel. But sometimes we get lucky and just like in science, the simplified view or the static view will actually solve the problem for us. So in this case, it’s very possible that the sequence of letters has a unique mapping to our structure without considering how it unraveled. So without considering the tunnel, that seems to be the case in this situation where the cool thing about proteins, all the different shapes that it can possibly take, it actually seems to take very specific unique shapes given the sequence.
Well, that’s really interesting about the exit tunnel. But sometimes we get lucky and just like in science, the simplified view or the static view will actually solve the problem for us. So in this case, it’s very possible that the sequence of letters has a unique mapping to our structure without considering how it unraveled. So without considering the tunnel, that seems to be the case in this situation where the cool thing about proteins, all the different shapes that it can possibly take, it actually seems to take very specific unique shapes given the sequence.
Nick Lane
That’s forced on you by an exit tunnel. So the problem is actually much simpler than you thought. And then there’s a whole army of proteins which changed the conformational state, chaperone proteins, and they’re only used when there’s some presumably issue with how it came out of the exit tunnel, and you want to do it differently to that. So very often the chaperone proteins will go there and will influence the way in which it folds. So-
That’s forced on you by an exit tunnel. So the problem is actually much simpler than you thought. And then there’s a whole army of proteins which changed the conformational state, chaperone proteins, and they’re only used when there’s some presumably issue with how it came out of the exit tunnel, and you want to do it differently to that. So very often the chaperone proteins will go there and will influence the way in which it folds. So-
Nick Lane
… go there and will influence the way in which it falls. So there’s two ways of doing it. Either you can look at the structures and the sequences of all the proteins, and you can apply an immense mind to it, and figure out what the patterns are and figure out what… Or, you can look at the actual situation where it is and say, “Well, hang on, it was actually quite simple.” It’s got a charged environment and then of course, it’s forced to come out this way. And then, the question will be, “Well, do different ribosomes have different charged environments? What happens if a chaperone…” You’re asking a different set of questions to come to the same answer, in a way which is telling you a much simpler story, and explains why it is. Rather than saying, “It could be. This is one in a billion different possible conformational states that this protein could have,” you’re saying, “Well, it has this one because that was the only one it could take, given its setting.”
… go there and will influence the way in which it falls. So there’s two ways of doing it. Either you can look at the structures and the sequences of all the proteins, and you can apply an immense mind to it, and figure out what the patterns are and figure out what… Or, you can look at the actual situation where it is and say, “Well, hang on, it was actually quite simple.” It’s got a charged environment and then of course, it’s forced to come out this way. And then, the question will be, “Well, do different ribosomes have different charged environments? What happens if a chaperone…” You’re asking a different set of questions to come to the same answer, in a way which is telling you a much simpler story, and explains why it is. Rather than saying, “It could be. This is one in a billion different possible conformational states that this protein could have,” you’re saying, “Well, it has this one because that was the only one it could take, given its setting.”
Lex Fridman
Well, yeah, I mean, currently humans are very good at that kind of first principles thinking, of stepping back.
Well, yeah, I mean, currently humans are very good at that kind of first principles thinking, of stepping back.
Nick Lane
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
But I think AI is really good at collecting a huge amount of data, and a huge amount of data of observation of planets, and figure out that Earth is not at the center of the universe, that there’s actually a sun, we’re orbiting the Sun. But then, you can, as a human being ask, “Well, how do solar systems come to be? What are the different forces that are required to make this kind of pattern emerge?” And then, you start to invent things like gravity. I mean, obviously-
But I think AI is really good at collecting a huge amount of data, and a huge amount of data of observation of planets, and figure out that Earth is not at the center of the universe, that there’s actually a sun, we’re orbiting the Sun. But then, you can, as a human being ask, “Well, how do solar systems come to be? What are the different forces that are required to make this kind of pattern emerge?” And then, you start to invent things like gravity. I mean, obviously-
Nick Lane
Is it something [inaudible 02:09:26]-
Is it something [inaudible 02:09:26]-
Lex Fridman
I mixed up the ordering of gravity wasn’t considered as a thing that connects planets, but we are able to think about those big picture things as human beings. AI is just very good to infer simple models from a huge amount of data. And the question is, with biology, we kind of go back and forth how we solve biology. Listen, protein folding was thought to be impossible to solve. And there’s a lot of brilliant PhD students that worked one protein at a time, trying to figure out the structure, and the fact that it was able to do that…
I mixed up the ordering of gravity wasn’t considered as a thing that connects planets, but we are able to think about those big picture things as human beings. AI is just very good to infer simple models from a huge amount of data. And the question is, with biology, we kind of go back and forth how we solve biology. Listen, protein folding was thought to be impossible to solve. And there’s a lot of brilliant PhD students that worked one protein at a time, trying to figure out the structure, and the fact that it was able to do that…
Nick Lane
Oh, I’m not knocking it at all, but I think that people have been asking the wrong question.
Oh, I’m not knocking it at all, but I think that people have been asking the wrong question.
Lex Fridman
But then, as the people start to ask better and bigger questions, the AI kind of enters the chat and says, “I’ll help you out with that.”
But then, as the people start to ask better and bigger questions, the AI kind of enters the chat and says, “I’ll help you out with that.”
Nick Lane
Can I give you another example from my own work? The risk of getting a disease as we get older, there are genetic aspects to it. If you spend your whole life overeating, and smoking, and whatever, that’s a whole separate question, but there’s a genetic side to the risk, and we know a few genes that increase your risk of certain things. And for probably 20 years now, people have been doing what’s called GWAS, which is genome-wide association studies.
Can I give you another example from my own work? The risk of getting a disease as we get older, there are genetic aspects to it. If you spend your whole life overeating, and smoking, and whatever, that’s a whole separate question, but there’s a genetic side to the risk, and we know a few genes that increase your risk of certain things. And for probably 20 years now, people have been doing what’s called GWAS, which is genome-wide association studies.
So you effectively scan the entire genome for any single nucleotide polymorphisms, which is to say a single letter change in one place that has a higher association of being linked with a particular disease or not. And you can come out with thousands of these things across the genome. And if you add them all up and try and say, “Well, so do they add up to explain the known genetic risk of this disease?” And the known genetic risk often comes from twin studies, and you can say that if this twin gets epilepsy, there’s a 40 or 50% risk that the other twin, identical twin, will also get epilepsy. Therefore, the genetic factor is about 50%, and so the gene similarities that you see should account for 50% of that known risk.
Very often, it accounts for less than a 10th of the known risk. And there’s two possible explanations, and there’s one which people tend to do, which is to say, “Ah, well, we don’t have enough statistical power. Maybe there’s a million. We’ve only found a 1,000 of them, but if we find the other million, they’re weakly related, but there’s a huge number of them, and so we’ll account for that whole risk.” Maybe there’s a billion of them, [inaudible 02:12:10]. So that’s one way. The other way is to say, “Well, hang on a minute. You’re missing a system here. That system is the mitochondrial DNA,” which people tend to dismiss, because it’s small and it doesn’t change very much.
But a few single letter changes in that mitochondrial DNA, it controls some really basic processes. It controls not only all the energy that we need to live, and to move around, and do everything we do, but also biosynthesis, to make the new building blocks, to make new cells. And cancer cells very often take over the mitochondria and rewire them, so that instead of using them for making energy, they’re effectively using them as precursors for the building blocks, for biosynthesis. You need to make new amino acids, new nucleotides for DNA. You want to make new lipids to make your membranes and so on. So they kind of rewire metabolism.
Now, the problem is that we’ve got all these interactions between mitochondrial DNA and the genes in the nucleus that are overlooked completely, because people literally throw away the mitochondrial genes, and we can see in fruit flies that they interact and produce big differences in risk. So you can set AI onto this question of exactly how many of these base changes there are, and that’s just one possible solution, that maybe there are a million of them and it does account for the greater part of the risk, or the other one is they aren’t. It’s just not there, that actually the risk lies in something you weren’t even looking at. And this is where human intuition is very important, and there’s this feeling that, “Well, I’m working on this, and I think it’s important, and I’m bloody minded about it.” And in the end, some people are right. It turns out that it was important. Can you get AI to do that, to be bloody minded?
Lex Fridman
And that, “Hang on a minute, you might be missing a whole other system here that’s much bigger,” that’s the moment of discovery, of scientific revolution. I’m giving up on saying AI can’t do something. I’ve said it enough times about enough things. I think there’s been a lot of progress. And instead, I’m excited by the possibility of AI helping humans. But at the same time, just like I said, we seem to dismiss the power of humans.
And that, “Hang on a minute, you might be missing a whole other system here that’s much bigger,” that’s the moment of discovery, of scientific revolution. I’m giving up on saying AI can’t do something. I’ve said it enough times about enough things. I think there’s been a lot of progress. And instead, I’m excited by the possibility of AI helping humans. But at the same time, just like I said, we seem to dismiss the power of humans.
Nick Lane
Yes, yes.
Yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
We’re so limited in so many ways that kind of, in what we feel like dumb ways, like we’re not strong, we’re kind of, our attention, our memory is limited, our ability to focus on things is limited, in our own perception of what limited is. But that, actually, there’s an incredible computer behind the whole thing that makes this whole system work. Our ability to interact with the environment, to reason about the environment, there’s magic there.
We’re so limited in so many ways that kind of, in what we feel like dumb ways, like we’re not strong, we’re kind of, our attention, our memory is limited, our ability to focus on things is limited, in our own perception of what limited is. But that, actually, there’s an incredible computer behind the whole thing that makes this whole system work. Our ability to interact with the environment, to reason about the environment, there’s magic there.
Nick Lane
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And I am hopeful that AI can capture some of that same magic, but that magic is not going to look like a Deep Blue playing chess.
And I am hopeful that AI can capture some of that same magic, but that magic is not going to look like a Deep Blue playing chess.
Nick Lane
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
It’s going to be more interesting.
It’s going to be more interesting.
Nick Lane
But I don’t think it’s going to look like pattern finding, either. I mean, that’s essentially what you’re telling me it does very well at the moment. And my point is it works very well where you’re looking for the right pattern, but we are storytelling animals. And a hypothesis is a story. It’s a testable story, but a new hypothesis is a leap into the unknown, and it’s a new story, basically. And it says, “This leads to this, leads to that.” It’s a causal set of storytelling.
But I don’t think it’s going to look like pattern finding, either. I mean, that’s essentially what you’re telling me it does very well at the moment. And my point is it works very well where you’re looking for the right pattern, but we are storytelling animals. And a hypothesis is a story. It’s a testable story, but a new hypothesis is a leap into the unknown, and it’s a new story, basically. And it says, “This leads to this, leads to that.” It’s a causal set of storytelling.
Lex Fridman
It’s also possible that the leap into the unknown has a pattern of its own.
It’s also possible that the leap into the unknown has a pattern of its own.
Nick Lane
Yes, it is.
Yes, it is.
Lex Fridman
And it’s possible that it’s learnable.
And it’s possible that it’s learnable.
Nick Lane
I’m sure it is. There’s a nice book by Arthur Koestler on the nature of creativity, and he likens it to a joke where the punchline goes off in a completely unexpected direction, and says that this is the basis of human creativity, that some creative switch of direction to an unexpected place is similar to a… I’m not saying that’s how it works, but it’s a nice idea, and there must be some truth in it. Most of the stories we tell are probably the wrong story, and probably going nowhere, and probably not helpful, and we definitely don’t do as well at seeing patterns in things.
I’m sure it is. There’s a nice book by Arthur Koestler on the nature of creativity, and he likens it to a joke where the punchline goes off in a completely unexpected direction, and says that this is the basis of human creativity, that some creative switch of direction to an unexpected place is similar to a… I’m not saying that’s how it works, but it’s a nice idea, and there must be some truth in it. Most of the stories we tell are probably the wrong story, and probably going nowhere, and probably not helpful, and we definitely don’t do as well at seeing patterns in things.
But some of the most enjoyable human aspects is finding a new story that goes to an unexpected place. And again, these are all aspects of what being human means to me. And maybe these are all things that AI figures out for itself, or maybe they’re just aspects… But I just have the feeling sometimes that the people who are trying to understand what we are like, if we wish to craft an AI system which is somehow human-like, that we don’t have a firm enough grasp of what humans really are like, in terms of how we are built,
Lex Fridman
But we get a better understanding of that. I agree with you completely. We try to build a thing and then we go, “Hang on in a minute, there’s another system here.” And that’s, actually, the attempt to build AI that’s human-like is getting us to a deeper understanding of human beings. The funny thing that I recently talked to Magnus Carlsen, widely considered to be the greatest chess player of all time, and he talked about AlphaZero, which is a system from DeepMind that plays chess. And he had a funny comment, he has a kind of dry sense of humor, but he was extremely impressed when he first saw AlphaZero play, and he said that it did a lot of things that could easily be mistaken for creativity.
But we get a better understanding of that. I agree with you completely. We try to build a thing and then we go, “Hang on in a minute, there’s another system here.” And that’s, actually, the attempt to build AI that’s human-like is getting us to a deeper understanding of human beings. The funny thing that I recently talked to Magnus Carlsen, widely considered to be the greatest chess player of all time, and he talked about AlphaZero, which is a system from DeepMind that plays chess. And he had a funny comment, he has a kind of dry sense of humor, but he was extremely impressed when he first saw AlphaZero play, and he said that it did a lot of things that could easily be mistaken for creativity.
So he refused, as a typical human, refused to give the system sort of its due, because he came up with a lot of things that a lot of people are extremely impressed by, not just the sheer calculation, but the brilliance of play. So one of the things that it does in really interesting ways is it sacrifices pieces. So in chess, that means you basically take a few steps back in order to take a step forward. You give away pieces for some future reward. And that, for us humans, is where art is in chess. You take big risks that, for us humans, those risks are especially painful, because you have a fog of uncertainty before you. So to take a risk now based on intuition of, “I think this is the right risk to take, but there’s so many possibilities,” that that’s where it takes guts. That’s where art is, that’s that danger.
And then, AlphaZero takes those same kind of risks, and does them even greater degree, but of course, it does it from where you could easily reduce down to a cold calculation over patterns. But boy, when you see the final result, it sure looks like the same kind of magic that we see, and creativity, when we see creative play on the chess board. But the chess board is very limited, and the question is, as we get better and better, can we do that same kind of creativity in mathematics, in programming, and then eventually in biology, psychology, and expand into more and more complex systems?
Nick Lane
I used to go running when I was a boy, and fell running, which is to say running up and down mountains, and I was never particularly great at it, but there were some people who were amazingly fast, especially at running down. And I realized, in trying to do this, that there’s three possible ways of doing it, and there’s only two that work. Either, you go extremely slowly and carefully, and you figure out, “Okay, there’s a stone. I’ll put my foot on this stone, and then there’s a muddy puddle I’m going to avoid.” And it’s slow, it’s laborious. You figure it out, step by step, or you can just go incredibly fast, and you don’t think about it at all. The entire conscious mind is shut out of it, and it’s probably the same playing table tennis or something. There’s something in the mind which is doing a whole lot of subconscious calculations about exactly…
I used to go running when I was a boy, and fell running, which is to say running up and down mountains, and I was never particularly great at it, but there were some people who were amazingly fast, especially at running down. And I realized, in trying to do this, that there’s three possible ways of doing it, and there’s only two that work. Either, you go extremely slowly and carefully, and you figure out, “Okay, there’s a stone. I’ll put my foot on this stone, and then there’s a muddy puddle I’m going to avoid.” And it’s slow, it’s laborious. You figure it out, step by step, or you can just go incredibly fast, and you don’t think about it at all. The entire conscious mind is shut out of it, and it’s probably the same playing table tennis or something. There’s something in the mind which is doing a whole lot of subconscious calculations about exactly…
And it’s amazing. You can run at astonishing speed down a hillside, with no idea how you did it at all. And then, you panic and you think, “I’m going to break my leg if I keep doing this. I’ve got to think about where I’m going to put my foot.” So you slow down a bit and try to bring this conscious mind in, and then you do, you crash. You cannot think consciously while running downhill. And so it’s amazing how many calculations the mind is able to make.
Now, the problem with playing chess or something, if you were able to make all of those subconscious, forward calculations about what is the likely outcome of this move now in the way that we can by running down a hillside or something, it’s partly about what we have adapted to do. It’s partly about the reality of the world that we’re in. Running fast downhill is something that we better be bloody good at, otherwise we’re going to be eaten. Whereas, trying to calculate multiple, multiple moves into the future is not something we’ve ever been called on to do. Two or three, four moves into the future is quite enough for most of us, most of the time.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah. So yeah, just solving chess, we may not be as far towards solving the problem of downhill running as we might think, just because we solved chess. Still, it’s beautiful to see creativity. Humans create machines. They’re able to create art, and art on the chessboard and art otherwise. Who knows how far that takes us? So I mentioned Andrej Karpathy earlier. Him and I are big fans of yours. If you’re taking votes, his suggestion was you should write your next book on the Fermi paradox. So let me ask you, on the topic of alien life, since we’ve been talking about life and we’re a kind of aliens, how many alien civilizations are out there, do you think?
Yeah, yeah. So yeah, just solving chess, we may not be as far towards solving the problem of downhill running as we might think, just because we solved chess. Still, it’s beautiful to see creativity. Humans create machines. They’re able to create art, and art on the chessboard and art otherwise. Who knows how far that takes us? So I mentioned Andrej Karpathy earlier. Him and I are big fans of yours. If you’re taking votes, his suggestion was you should write your next book on the Fermi paradox. So let me ask you, on the topic of alien life, since we’ve been talking about life and we’re a kind of aliens, how many alien civilizations are out there, do you think?
Nick Lane
Well, the universe is very big, but not as many as most people would like to think is my view, because the idea that there is a trajectory going from simple cellular life like bacteria, all the way through to humans, seems to me there’s some big gaps along that way, that the eukaryotic cell, the complex cell that we have is the biggest of them. But also, photosynthesis is another. Another interesting gap is a long gap from the origin of the eukaryotic cell to the first animals. That was about a billion years, maybe more than that, and a long delay in where oxygen began to accumulate in the atmosphere.
Well, the universe is very big, but not as many as most people would like to think is my view, because the idea that there is a trajectory going from simple cellular life like bacteria, all the way through to humans, seems to me there’s some big gaps along that way, that the eukaryotic cell, the complex cell that we have is the biggest of them. But also, photosynthesis is another. Another interesting gap is a long gap from the origin of the eukaryotic cell to the first animals. That was about a billion years, maybe more than that, and a long delay in where oxygen began to accumulate in the atmosphere.
So from the first appearance of oxygen in the Great Oxidation Event to enough for animals to respire was close to 2 billion years. Why so long? It seems to be planetary factors. It seems to be geology, as much as anything else, and we don’t really know what was going on. So the idea that there’s a kind of an inevitable march towards complexity and sentient life I don’t think is right. Not to say it’s not going to happen, but I think it’s not going to happen often.
Lex Fridman
So if you think of Earth, given the geological constraints and all that kind of stuff, do you have a sense that life, complex life, intelligent life happened really quickly on Earth, or really long? So just to get a sense of are you more sort of saying that it’s very unlikely to get the kind of conditions required to create humans, or is it, even if you have the condition, it’s just statistically difficult?
So if you think of Earth, given the geological constraints and all that kind of stuff, do you have a sense that life, complex life, intelligent life happened really quickly on Earth, or really long? So just to get a sense of are you more sort of saying that it’s very unlikely to get the kind of conditions required to create humans, or is it, even if you have the condition, it’s just statistically difficult?
Nick Lane
I think, I mean, the problem, the single great problem at the center of all of that, to my mind, is the origin of the eukaryotic cell, which happened once, and without eukaryotes, nothing else would’ve happened, and that is something that-
I think, I mean, the problem, the single great problem at the center of all of that, to my mind, is the origin of the eukaryotic cell, which happened once, and without eukaryotes, nothing else would’ve happened, and that is something that-
Lex Fridman
Because you’re saying it’s super important, the eukaryotes, but-
Because you’re saying it’s super important, the eukaryotes, but-
Nick Lane
I’m saying tantamount of saying that it is impossible to build something as complex as a human being from bacterial cells.
I’m saying tantamount of saying that it is impossible to build something as complex as a human being from bacterial cells.
Lex Fridman
Totally agree in some deep, fundamental way, but it’s just like one cell going inside another. Is that so difficult to get to work right, that like [inaudible 02:25:18]-
Totally agree in some deep, fundamental way, but it’s just like one cell going inside another. Is that so difficult to get to work right, that like [inaudible 02:25:18]-
Nick Lane
Well, again, it happened once, and if you think about, I’m in a minority view in this position, most biologists probably wouldn’t agree with me anyway, but if you think about the starting point, we’ve got a simple cell, it’s an archaeal cell, we can be fairly sure about that. So it looks a lot like a bacterium, but is in fact from this other domain of life. So it looks a lot like a bacterial cell. That means it doesn’t have anything. It doesn’t have a nucleus, it doesn’t really have complex endomembrane. It has a little bit of stuff, but not that much, and it takes up an endosymbiont. So what happens next? And the answer is basically everything to do with complexity.
Well, again, it happened once, and if you think about, I’m in a minority view in this position, most biologists probably wouldn’t agree with me anyway, but if you think about the starting point, we’ve got a simple cell, it’s an archaeal cell, we can be fairly sure about that. So it looks a lot like a bacterium, but is in fact from this other domain of life. So it looks a lot like a bacterial cell. That means it doesn’t have anything. It doesn’t have a nucleus, it doesn’t really have complex endomembrane. It has a little bit of stuff, but not that much, and it takes up an endosymbiont. So what happens next? And the answer is basically everything to do with complexity.
To me, there’s a beautiful paradox here. Plants, and animals, and fungi all have exactly the same type of cell, but they all have really different ways of living. So a plant cell is photosynthetic, they started out as algae in the oceans and so on. So think of algal bloom, single-cell things. The basic cell structure that it’s built from is exactly the same, with a couple of small differences. It’s got chloroplasts as well, it’s got a vacuole, it’s got a cell wall, but that’s about it. Pretty much everything else is exactly the same in a plant cell and an animal cell. And yet, the ways of life are completely different. So this cell structure did not evolve in response to different ways of life, different environments. I’m in the ocean doing photosynthesis, I’m on land running around as part of an animal, I’m a fungus in a soil, spinning out long kind of shoots into whatever it may be, mycelium.
So they all have the same underlying cell structure. Why? Almost certainly, it was driven by adaptation to the internal environment, of having these pesky endosymbionts that forced all kinds of change on the host cell. Now, in one way, you could see that as a really good thing, because it may be that there’s some inevitability to this process. It’s as soon as you’ve got endosymbionts, you’re more or less bound to go in that direction. Or, it could be that there’s a huge fluke about it, and it’s almost certain to go wrong in just about every case possible, that the conflict will lead to, effectively, war, leading to death and extinction, and it simply doesn’t work out. So maybe it happened millions of times and it went wrong every time, or maybe it only happened once, and it worked out because it was inevitable. And actually, we simply do not know enough now to say which of those two possibilities is true, but both of them are a bit grim.
Lex Fridman
But you’re leaning towards we just got really lucky in that one leap. So do you have a sense that our galaxy, for example, has just maybe millions of planets with bacteria living on it?
But you’re leaning towards we just got really lucky in that one leap. So do you have a sense that our galaxy, for example, has just maybe millions of planets with bacteria living on it?
Nick Lane
I would expect billions, tens of billions of planets with bacteria living on it, practically. I mean, there’s probably what, 5 to 10 planets per star, of which I would hope that at least one would have bacteria on. So I expect bacteria to be very common. I simply can’t put a number otherwise. I mean, I expect it will happen elsewhere. It’s not that I think we’re living in a completely empty universe.
I would expect billions, tens of billions of planets with bacteria living on it, practically. I mean, there’s probably what, 5 to 10 planets per star, of which I would hope that at least one would have bacteria on. So I expect bacteria to be very common. I simply can’t put a number otherwise. I mean, I expect it will happen elsewhere. It’s not that I think we’re living in a completely empty universe.
Lex Fridman
That’s so fascinating.
That’s so fascinating.
Nick Lane
But I think that it’s not going to happen inevitably, and there’s something… That’s not the only problem with complex life on Earth. I mentioned oxygen, and animals, and so on as well. And even humans, we came along very late. You go back 5 million years, and would we be that impressed if we came across a planet full of giraffes? I mean, you’d think, “Hey, there’s life here. There’s a nice planet to colonize or something.” We wouldn’t think, “Oh, let’s try and have a conversation with this giraffe.”
But I think that it’s not going to happen inevitably, and there’s something… That’s not the only problem with complex life on Earth. I mentioned oxygen, and animals, and so on as well. And even humans, we came along very late. You go back 5 million years, and would we be that impressed if we came across a planet full of giraffes? I mean, you’d think, “Hey, there’s life here. There’s a nice planet to colonize or something.” We wouldn’t think, “Oh, let’s try and have a conversation with this giraffe.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I’m not sure what exactly we would think. I’m not exactly sure what makes humans so interesting from an alien perspective or how they would notice. I’ll talk to you about cities, too, because an interesting perspective of how to look at human civilization. But your suns… I mean, of course you don’t know, but it’s an interesting world, it’s an interesting galaxy, and it’s an interesting universe to live in, that’s just like every sun, like 90% of solar systems have bacteria in it. Imagine that world, and the galaxy maybe has just a handful, if not one intelligent civilization. That’s a wild world.
Yeah, I’m not sure what exactly we would think. I’m not exactly sure what makes humans so interesting from an alien perspective or how they would notice. I’ll talk to you about cities, too, because an interesting perspective of how to look at human civilization. But your suns… I mean, of course you don’t know, but it’s an interesting world, it’s an interesting galaxy, and it’s an interesting universe to live in, that’s just like every sun, like 90% of solar systems have bacteria in it. Imagine that world, and the galaxy maybe has just a handful, if not one intelligent civilization. That’s a wild world.
Nick Lane
It’s a wild world.
It’s a wild world.
Lex Fridman
I didn’t even think about that world. There’s a kind of thought that one of the reasons it would be so exciting to find life on Mars, or Titan, or whatever is like if life is elsewhere, then surely, statistically, that life, no matter how unlikely you curry us multicellular organisms, sex, violence, what else is extremely difficult? I mean, photosynthesis, is figuring out some machinery that involves the chemistry and the environment to allow the building up of complex organisms, surely that would arise. But man, I don’t know how I would feel about just bacteria everywhere.
I didn’t even think about that world. There’s a kind of thought that one of the reasons it would be so exciting to find life on Mars, or Titan, or whatever is like if life is elsewhere, then surely, statistically, that life, no matter how unlikely you curry us multicellular organisms, sex, violence, what else is extremely difficult? I mean, photosynthesis, is figuring out some machinery that involves the chemistry and the environment to allow the building up of complex organisms, surely that would arise. But man, I don’t know how I would feel about just bacteria everywhere.
Nick Lane
Well, it would be depressing, if it was true. I suppose, depressing-
Well, it would be depressing, if it was true. I suppose, depressing-
Lex Fridman
[inaudible 02:30:42].
[inaudible 02:30:42].
Nick Lane
I don’t think-
I don’t think-
Lex Fridman
I don’t know what’s more depressing, bacteria everywhere, nothing everywhere.
I don’t know what’s more depressing, bacteria everywhere, nothing everywhere.
Nick Lane
Yes, either of them are chilling. But whether it’s chilling or not I don’t think should force us to change our view about whether it’s real or not.
Yes, either of them are chilling. But whether it’s chilling or not I don’t think should force us to change our view about whether it’s real or not.
Lex Fridman
Yes, yes.
Yes, yes.
Nick Lane
And what I’m saying may or may not be true.
And what I’m saying may or may not be true.
Lex Fridman
So how would you feel if we discovered life on Mars? It sounds like you would be less excited than some others, because you’re like, “Well…”
So how would you feel if we discovered life on Mars? It sounds like you would be less excited than some others, because you’re like, “Well…”
Nick Lane
What I would be most interested in is how similar to life on Earth it would be. It would actually turn into quite a subtle problem, because the likelihood of life having gone to and fro between Mars and the Earth is quite… I wouldn’t say high, but it’s not low. It’s quite feasible. And so if we found life on Mars and it had very similar genetic code, but it was slightly different, most people would interpret that immediately as evidence that there’d been transit one way or the other, and that it was a common origin of life on Mars or on the Earth, and it went one way or the other way.
What I would be most interested in is how similar to life on Earth it would be. It would actually turn into quite a subtle problem, because the likelihood of life having gone to and fro between Mars and the Earth is quite… I wouldn’t say high, but it’s not low. It’s quite feasible. And so if we found life on Mars and it had very similar genetic code, but it was slightly different, most people would interpret that immediately as evidence that there’d been transit one way or the other, and that it was a common origin of life on Mars or on the Earth, and it went one way or the other way.
The other way to see that question, though, would be to say, “Well, actually the whole beginnings of life lie in deterministic chemistry and thermodynamics, starting with the most likely abundant materials, CO₂, and water, and wet, rocky planet,” and Mars was wet and rocky at the beginning and will, I won’t say inevitably, but potentially almost inevitably come up with a genetic code which is not very far away from the genetic code that we already have. So we see subtle differences in the genetic code, what does it mean? It could be very difficult to interpret.
Lex Fridman
Is it possible, do you think, to tell the difference of something that truly originated…
Is it possible, do you think, to tell the difference of something that truly originated…
Nick Lane
I think if the stereochemistry was different, we have sugars, for example, that are the L form or the D form, and we have D sugars and L amino acids right across all of life. But lipids, the bacteria have one stereoisomer and the bacteria have the other, the opposite stereoisomer. So it’s perfectly possible to use one or the other one. And the same would almost certainly go for… And I think George Church has been trying to make life based on the opposite stereoisomer. So it’s perfectly possible to do, and it will work. And if we were to find life on Mars that was using the opposite stereoisomer, that would be unequivocal evidence that life had started independently there.
I think if the stereochemistry was different, we have sugars, for example, that are the L form or the D form, and we have D sugars and L amino acids right across all of life. But lipids, the bacteria have one stereoisomer and the bacteria have the other, the opposite stereoisomer. So it’s perfectly possible to use one or the other one. And the same would almost certainly go for… And I think George Church has been trying to make life based on the opposite stereoisomer. So it’s perfectly possible to do, and it will work. And if we were to find life on Mars that was using the opposite stereoisomer, that would be unequivocal evidence that life had started independently there.
Lex Fridman
So hopefully, the life we find will be on Titan, on Europa or something like that, where it’s less likely that we shared… And it’s harsher conditions, so there’s going to be weirder kind of life?
So hopefully, the life we find will be on Titan, on Europa or something like that, where it’s less likely that we shared… And it’s harsher conditions, so there’s going to be weirder kind of life?
Nick Lane
I wouldn’t count on that, because-
I wouldn’t count on that, because-
Lex Fridman
Of water.
Of water.
Nick Lane
… life started in deep sea hydrothermal vents here.
… life started in deep sea hydrothermal vents here.
Lex Fridman
It’s a harsh-
It’s a harsh-
Nick Lane
It’s pretty harsh, yeah. So Titan is different. Europa is probably quite similar to Earth, in the sense that we’re dealing with an ocean. It’s an acidic ocean there, as the early Earth would’ve been. And it almost certainly has hydrothermal systems. Same with Enceladus. We can tell that from these plumes coming from the surface, through the ice. We know there’s a liquid ocean and we can tell roughly what the chemistry is. For Titan, we’re dealing with liquid methane and things like that. So that would really, if there really is life there, it would really have to be very, very different to anything that we know on Earth.
It’s pretty harsh, yeah. So Titan is different. Europa is probably quite similar to Earth, in the sense that we’re dealing with an ocean. It’s an acidic ocean there, as the early Earth would’ve been. And it almost certainly has hydrothermal systems. Same with Enceladus. We can tell that from these plumes coming from the surface, through the ice. We know there’s a liquid ocean and we can tell roughly what the chemistry is. For Titan, we’re dealing with liquid methane and things like that. So that would really, if there really is life there, it would really have to be very, very different to anything that we know on Earth.
Evolution
Lex Fridman
So the hard leap, the hardest leap, the most important leap is from prokaryotes to eukaryotes. What’s the second, if we were ranking? You gave a lot of emphasis on photosynthesis.
So the hard leap, the hardest leap, the most important leap is from prokaryotes to eukaryotes. What’s the second, if we were ranking? You gave a lot of emphasis on photosynthesis.
Nick Lane
Yeah, and that would be my second one, I think. But it’s not so much… I mean, photosynthesis is part of the problem. It’s a difficult thing to do. Again, we know it happened once, we don’t know why it happened once, but the fact that it was kind of taken on board completely by plants, and algae, and so on as chloroplasts, and did very well in completely different environments, and then on land and whatever else, seems to suggest that there’s no problem with exploring. You could have a separate origin that explored this whole domain over there that the bacteria had never gone into.
Yeah, and that would be my second one, I think. But it’s not so much… I mean, photosynthesis is part of the problem. It’s a difficult thing to do. Again, we know it happened once, we don’t know why it happened once, but the fact that it was kind of taken on board completely by plants, and algae, and so on as chloroplasts, and did very well in completely different environments, and then on land and whatever else, seems to suggest that there’s no problem with exploring. You could have a separate origin that explored this whole domain over there that the bacteria had never gone into.
So that kind of says that the reason that it only happened once is probably because it’s difficult, because the wiring is difficult. But then, it happened at least 2.2 billion years ago, right before the GOE, maybe as long as 3 billion years ago, when some people say there are whiffs of oxygen, there’s just kind of traces in the fossil, in the geochemical record that say maybe there was a bit of oxygen then. That’s really disputed. Some people say it goes all the way back 4 billion years ago, and that it was the common ancestor of life on Earth was photosynthetic. So immediately, you’ve got groups of people who disagree over a 2 billion-year period of time about when it started.
But let’s take the latest date when it’s unequivocal. That’s 2.2 billion years ago, through to around about the time of the Cambrian explosion, when oxygen levels definitely got close to modern levels, which was around about 550 million years ago. So we’ve gone more than one and a half billion years, where the Earth was in stasis. Nothing much changed. It’s known as the Boring Billion, in fact. Probably, stuff was… That was when Eukaryotes arose somewhere in there, but it’s… So this idea that the world is constantly changing, that we’re constantly evolving, that we’re moving up some ramp, it’s a very human idea, but in reality, there are kind of tipping points to a new stable equilibrium, where the cells that are producing oxygen are precisely counterbalanced by the cells that are consuming that oxygen, which is why it’s 21% now and has been that way for hundreds of millions of years. We have a very precise balance.
You go through a tipping point, and you don’t know where the next stable state’s going to be, but it can be a long way from here. And so if we change the world with global warming, there will be a tipping point. Question is where, and when, and what’s the next stable state? It may be uninhabitable to us. It’ll be habitable to life, for sure, but there may be something like the Permian extinction, where 95% of species go extinct, and there’s a 5-to-10 million year gap, and then life recovers, but without humans.
Lex Fridman
And the question, statistically, well, without humans, but statistically, does that ultimately lead to greater complexity, more interesting life, more intelligent life?
And the question, statistically, well, without humans, but statistically, does that ultimately lead to greater complexity, more interesting life, more intelligent life?
Nick Lane
Well, after the first appearance of oxygen with the GOE, there was a tipping point which led to a long-term stable state that was equivalent to the Black Sea today, which is to say oxygenated at the very surface and stagnant, sterile… Not sterile, but sulfurous lower down. And that was stable, certainly around the continental margins, for more than a billion years. It was not a state that led to progression in an obvious way.
Well, after the first appearance of oxygen with the GOE, there was a tipping point which led to a long-term stable state that was equivalent to the Black Sea today, which is to say oxygenated at the very surface and stagnant, sterile… Not sterile, but sulfurous lower down. And that was stable, certainly around the continental margins, for more than a billion years. It was not a state that led to progression in an obvious way.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean, it’s interesting to think about evolution, like what leads to stable states, and how often are evolutionary pressures emerging from the environment? So maybe other planets are able to create evolutionary pressures, chemical pressures, whatever, some kind of pressure that say, “You’re screwed unless you get your shit together in the next 10,000 years.”
Yeah, I mean, it’s interesting to think about evolution, like what leads to stable states, and how often are evolutionary pressures emerging from the environment? So maybe other planets are able to create evolutionary pressures, chemical pressures, whatever, some kind of pressure that say, “You’re screwed unless you get your shit together in the next 10,000 years.”
Nick Lane
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Like, a lot of pressure. It seems like Earth, the Boring Billion might be explained in two ways. One, it’s super difficult to take any kind of next step. And the second way it could be explained is there’s no reason to take the next step.
Like, a lot of pressure. It seems like Earth, the Boring Billion might be explained in two ways. One, it’s super difficult to take any kind of next step. And the second way it could be explained is there’s no reason to take the next step.
Nick Lane
No, I think there is no reason. But at the end of it, there was a snowball Earth. So there was a planetary catastrophe on a huge scale, where the ice, the sea was frozen at the equator, and that forced change in one way or another. It’s not long after that, a hundred million years, perhaps after that, so not a short time, but this is when we begin to see animals. There was a shift, again, another tipping point that led to catastrophic change that led to a takeoff then. We don’t really know why, but one of the reasons why that I discussed in the book is about sulfate being washed into the oceans, which sounds incredibly parochial.
No, I think there is no reason. But at the end of it, there was a snowball Earth. So there was a planetary catastrophe on a huge scale, where the ice, the sea was frozen at the equator, and that forced change in one way or another. It’s not long after that, a hundred million years, perhaps after that, so not a short time, but this is when we begin to see animals. There was a shift, again, another tipping point that led to catastrophic change that led to a takeoff then. We don’t really know why, but one of the reasons why that I discussed in the book is about sulfate being washed into the oceans, which sounds incredibly parochial.
But the issue is, I mean, what the data is showing, we can track roughly how oxygen was going into the atmosphere from carbon isotopes. So there’s two main isotopes of carbon that we need to think about here. One is carbon-12, 99% of carbon is carbon-12, and then 1% of carbon is carbon-13, which is a stable isotope. And then, there’s carbon-14, which is a trivial radioactive, it’s trivial amount. So carbon-13 is 1%, and life and enzymes, generally, you can think of carbon atoms as little balls bouncing around, ping-pong balls bouncing around. Carbon-12 moves a little bit faster than carbon-13.
Nick Lane
… bouncing around, ping-pong balls bouncing around. carbon-12 moves a little bit faster than carbon-13 because it’s lighter and it’s more likely to encounter an enzyme, and so it’s more likely to be fixed into organic matter. Organic matter is enriched, and this is just an observation. It’s enriched in Carbon-12 by a few percent compared to carbon-13 relative to what you would expect if it was just equal. If you then bury organic matter as coal or oil or whatever it may be, then it’s no longer oxidized. Some oxygen remains left over in the atmosphere and that’s how oxygen accumulates in the atmosphere.
… bouncing around, ping-pong balls bouncing around. carbon-12 moves a little bit faster than carbon-13 because it’s lighter and it’s more likely to encounter an enzyme, and so it’s more likely to be fixed into organic matter. Organic matter is enriched, and this is just an observation. It’s enriched in Carbon-12 by a few percent compared to carbon-13 relative to what you would expect if it was just equal. If you then bury organic matter as coal or oil or whatever it may be, then it’s no longer oxidized. Some oxygen remains left over in the atmosphere and that’s how oxygen accumulates in the atmosphere.
You can work out historically how much oxygen there must’ve been in the atmosphere by how much carbon was being buried. You think, well, how can we possibly know how much carbon was being buried? The answer is, well, if you’re burying carbon-12, what you’re leaving behind is more Carbon-13 in the oceans, and that precipitates out into limestone. You can look at limestones over these ages and work out what’s the Carbon-13 signal. That gives you a feedback on what the oxygen content.
Right before the Cambrian explosion, there was what’s called a negative isotope anomaly excursion, which is basically the carbon-13 goes down by a massive amount and then back up again 10 million years later. What that seems to be saying is the amount of carbon-12 in the oceans was disappearing, which is to say it was being oxidized. If it’s being oxidized, it’s consuming oxygen and that should … A big carbon-13 signal says the ratio of carbon-12 to carbon-13 is really going down, which means there’s much more carbon-12 being taken out and being oxidized.
Sorry, this is getting too complex, but-
Lex Fridman
Well, it’s a good way to estimate the amount of oxygen.
Well, it’s a good way to estimate the amount of oxygen.
Nick Lane
If you calculate the amount of oxygen based on the assumption that all this carbon-12 that’s being taken out is being oxidized by oxygen, the answer is all the oxygen in the atmosphere gets stripped out, there is none left. Yet the rest of the geological indicators say, no, there’s oxygen in the atmosphere. It’s a paradox and the only way to explain this paradox just on mass balance of how much stuff is in the air, how much stuff is in the oceans and so on, is to assume that oxygen was not the oxygen, it was sulfate. Sulfate was being washed into the oceans. It’s used as an electron acceptor by sulfate-reducing bacteria just as we use oxygen as an electron acceptor, so they pass their electrons to sulfate instead of oxygen.
If you calculate the amount of oxygen based on the assumption that all this carbon-12 that’s being taken out is being oxidized by oxygen, the answer is all the oxygen in the atmosphere gets stripped out, there is none left. Yet the rest of the geological indicators say, no, there’s oxygen in the atmosphere. It’s a paradox and the only way to explain this paradox just on mass balance of how much stuff is in the air, how much stuff is in the oceans and so on, is to assume that oxygen was not the oxygen, it was sulfate. Sulfate was being washed into the oceans. It’s used as an electron acceptor by sulfate-reducing bacteria just as we use oxygen as an electron acceptor, so they pass their electrons to sulfate instead of oxygen.
Lex Fridman
Bacteria did?
Bacteria did?
Nick Lane
Yeah, so these are bacteria. They’re oxidizing carbon, organic carbon with sulfate passing the electrons onto sulfate, that reacts with iron to form iron pyrites or fool’s gold, sinks down to the bottom, gets buried out of the system. This can account for the mass balance. Why does it matter? It matters because what it says is there was a chance event. Tectonically, there was a lot of sulfate sitting on land as some kind of mineral. Calcium sulfate minerals, for example are evaporitic and because there happened to be some continental collisions, mountain building, the sulfate was pushed up the side of a mountain and happened to get washed into the ocean.
Yeah, so these are bacteria. They’re oxidizing carbon, organic carbon with sulfate passing the electrons onto sulfate, that reacts with iron to form iron pyrites or fool’s gold, sinks down to the bottom, gets buried out of the system. This can account for the mass balance. Why does it matter? It matters because what it says is there was a chance event. Tectonically, there was a lot of sulfate sitting on land as some kind of mineral. Calcium sulfate minerals, for example are evaporitic and because there happened to be some continental collisions, mountain building, the sulfate was pushed up the side of a mountain and happened to get washed into the ocean.
Lex Fridman
I wonder how many happy accidents like that are possible.
I wonder how many happy accidents like that are possible.
Nick Lane
Yeah, statistically it’s really hard. Maybe you can rule that in statistically or rule out, but this is the course of life on Earth. Without all that sulfate being raised up, the Cambrian explosion almost certainly would not have happened and then we wouldn’t have had animals and so on and so on.
Yeah, statistically it’s really hard. Maybe you can rule that in statistically or rule out, but this is the course of life on Earth. Without all that sulfate being raised up, the Cambrian explosion almost certainly would not have happened and then we wouldn’t have had animals and so on and so on.
Lex Fridman
This explanation of the Cambrian explosion. Let me actually say in several ways, so folks who challenge the validity of the theory of evolution will give us an example that the Cambrian explosion is like this thing is weird. Now I’m not well studied in this.
This explanation of the Cambrian explosion. Let me actually say in several ways, so folks who challenge the validity of the theory of evolution will give us an example that the Cambrian explosion is like this thing is weird. Now I’m not well studied in this.
Nick Lane
Oh, it’s weird. Yeah.
Oh, it’s weird. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
The question I would have is what’s the biggest mystery or gap in understanding about evolution? Is it the Cambrian explosion? If so, first of all, what is it? In my understanding, in the short amount of time, maybe 10 million years, 100 million years, something like that, a huge number of animals, a variety, diversity of animals were created. Anyway, there’s five questions in there. Is that the biggest mystery to you about evolution?
The question I would have is what’s the biggest mystery or gap in understanding about evolution? Is it the Cambrian explosion? If so, first of all, what is it? In my understanding, in the short amount of time, maybe 10 million years, 100 million years, something like that, a huge number of animals, a variety, diversity of animals were created. Anyway, there’s five questions in there. Is that the biggest mystery to you about evolution?
Nick Lane
No, I don’t think it’s particularly a big mystery really anymore. There are still mysteries about why then? I’ve just said being washed into the oceans is one. It needs oxygen and oxygen levels rose around that time. Probably before that, they weren’t high enough for animals. What we’re seeing with the Cambrian explosion is the beginning of predators and prey relationships. We’re seeing modern ecosystems and we’re seeing arms races, and we’re seeing the full creativity of evolution unleashed. I talked about the boring billion. Nothing happens for one and a half, one billion years, one and a half billion years.
No, I don’t think it’s particularly a big mystery really anymore. There are still mysteries about why then? I’ve just said being washed into the oceans is one. It needs oxygen and oxygen levels rose around that time. Probably before that, they weren’t high enough for animals. What we’re seeing with the Cambrian explosion is the beginning of predators and prey relationships. We’re seeing modern ecosystems and we’re seeing arms races, and we’re seeing the full creativity of evolution unleashed. I talked about the boring billion. Nothing happens for one and a half, one billion years, one and a half billion years.
The assumption and this is completely wrong, this assumption is then that evolution works really slowly and that you need billions of years to affect some small change and then another billion years to do something. It’s completely wrong. Evolution gets stuck in a stasis and it stays that way for tens of millions, hundreds of millions of years. Stephen J. Gould used to argue this, he called it punctuated equilibrium, but he was doing it to do with animals and to do with the last 500 million years or so where it’s much less obvious than if you think about the entire planetary history. Then you realize that the first 2 billion years was bacteria only. You have the origin of life, 2 billion years of just bacteria, oxygenic, photosynthesis arising here. Then you have a global catastrophe, snowball Earths, and great oxidation event, and then another billion years of nothing happening, and then some period of upheavals and then another snowball Earth. Then suddenly you see the Cambrian explosion.
This is long periods of stasis where the world is in a stable state and is not geared towards increasing complexity. It’s just everything is in balance. Only when you have a catastrophic level of global level problem, like of snowball Earth, it forces everything out of balance and there’s a tipping point and you end up somewhere else. Now, the idea that evolution is slow is wrong. It can be incredibly fast. I mentioned earlier on that in theory it would take half a million years to invent an eye, for example, from a light sensitive spot. It doesn’t take long to convert one kind of tube into a tube with nobbles on it into a tube with arms on it, and then multiple arms, and then one end is a head with it starts out as a swelling. It’s not difficult intellectually to understand how these things can happen.
It boggles the mind that it can happen so quickly, but we’re used to human time scales. What we need to talk about is generations of things that live for a year in the ocean, and then a million years is a million generations. The amount of change that you can do can affect in that period of time is enormous. We’re dealing with large populations of things where selection is sensitive to pretty small changes. Again, as soon as you throw in the competition of predators and prey and you’re ramping up the scale of evolution, it’s not very surprising that it happens very quickly when the environment allows it to happen.
I don’t think there’s a big mystery. There’s lots of details that need to be filled in. The big mystery in biology is consciousness.
Lex Fridman
The big mystery in biology is consciousness? Well, intelligence is a mystery too. You said biology, not psychology, because from a biology perspective, it seems like intelligence and consciousness all are the same weird, all the brain stuff.
The big mystery in biology is consciousness? Well, intelligence is a mystery too. You said biology, not psychology, because from a biology perspective, it seems like intelligence and consciousness all are the same weird, all the brain stuff.
Nick Lane
I don’t see intelligence as necessarily that difficult, I suppose. I see it as a form of computing, and I don’t know much about computing.
I don’t see intelligence as necessarily that difficult, I suppose. I see it as a form of computing, and I don’t know much about computing.
Lex Fridman
Well, you don’t know much about consciousness either. Oh, I see, I see, I see, I see. That consciousness you do know a lot about as a human being.
Well, you don’t know much about consciousness either. Oh, I see, I see, I see, I see. That consciousness you do know a lot about as a human being.
Nick Lane
No, no. I can understand the wiring of a brain in pretty much the same way as a computer in theory, in terms of the circuitry of it. The mystery to me is how this system gives rise to feelings, as we were talking about earlier on.
No, no. I can understand the wiring of a brain in pretty much the same way as a computer in theory, in terms of the circuitry of it. The mystery to me is how this system gives rise to feelings, as we were talking about earlier on.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think we oversimplify intelligence. I think the dance, the magic of reasoning is as interesting as the magic of feeling. We tend to think of reasoning as running a very simplistic algorithm. I think reasoning is the interplay between memory, whatever the hell is going on, the unconscious mind, all of that.
Yeah, I think we oversimplify intelligence. I think the dance, the magic of reasoning is as interesting as the magic of feeling. We tend to think of reasoning as running a very simplistic algorithm. I think reasoning is the interplay between memory, whatever the hell is going on, the unconscious mind, all of that.
Nick Lane
I’m not trying to diminish it in any way at all. Obviously, it’s extraordinarily exquisitely complex, but I don’t see a logical difficulty with how it works.
I’m not trying to diminish it in any way at all. Obviously, it’s extraordinarily exquisitely complex, but I don’t see a logical difficulty with how it works.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, no, I agree with you, but sometimes, yeah, there’s a big cloak of mystery around consciousness.
Yeah, no, I agree with you, but sometimes, yeah, there’s a big cloak of mystery around consciousness.
Nick Lane
Let me compare it with classical versus quantum physics. Classical physics is logical and you can understand the language we’re dealing with. It’s almost at the human level, we’re dealing with stars and things that we can see. When you get to quantum mechanics and things, it’s practically impossible for the human mind to compute what just happened there.
Let me compare it with classical versus quantum physics. Classical physics is logical and you can understand the language we’re dealing with. It’s almost at the human level, we’re dealing with stars and things that we can see. When you get to quantum mechanics and things, it’s practically impossible for the human mind to compute what just happened there.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that is the same. It’s like you understand mathematically the notes of a musical composition, that’s intelligence. But why it makes you feel a certain way? That is much harder to understand. Yeah, that’s really, but it was an interesting framing that that’s a mystery at the core of biology. I wonder who solves consciousness. I tend to think consciousness will be solved by the engineer, meaning the person who builds it, who keeps trying to build the thing, versus biology is such a complicated system. I feel like the building blocks of consciousness from a biological perspective are that’s the final creation of a human being, so you have to understand the whole damn thing. You said the electrical fields, but electrical fields plus, plus everything, the whole shebang.
Yeah, that is the same. It’s like you understand mathematically the notes of a musical composition, that’s intelligence. But why it makes you feel a certain way? That is much harder to understand. Yeah, that’s really, but it was an interesting framing that that’s a mystery at the core of biology. I wonder who solves consciousness. I tend to think consciousness will be solved by the engineer, meaning the person who builds it, who keeps trying to build the thing, versus biology is such a complicated system. I feel like the building blocks of consciousness from a biological perspective are that’s the final creation of a human being, so you have to understand the whole damn thing. You said the electrical fields, but electrical fields plus, plus everything, the whole shebang.
Nick Lane
I’m inclined to agree. My feeling is from my meager knowledge of the history of science is that the biggest breakthrough has usually come through from a field that was not related to. If anyone is not going to be a biologist who solves consciousness, just because biologists are too embedded in the nature of the problem. Then nobody’s going to believe you when you’ve done it because nobody’s going to be able to prove that this AI is in fact conscious and sad in any case and any more than you can prove that a dog is conscious and sad, so it tells you that it is in good language and you must believe it.
I’m inclined to agree. My feeling is from my meager knowledge of the history of science is that the biggest breakthrough has usually come through from a field that was not related to. If anyone is not going to be a biologist who solves consciousness, just because biologists are too embedded in the nature of the problem. Then nobody’s going to believe you when you’ve done it because nobody’s going to be able to prove that this AI is in fact conscious and sad in any case and any more than you can prove that a dog is conscious and sad, so it tells you that it is in good language and you must believe it.
But I think most people will accept if faced with that, that that’s what it is. All of this probability though of complex life. In one way, I think why it matters is that my expectation I suppose is that we will be over the next 100 years or so, if we survive it all, that AI will increasingly dominate. Pretty much anything that we put out into space looking for the universe, for what’s out there will be AI. It won’t be us, we won’t be doing that, or when we do, it will be on a much more limited scale. I suppose the same would apply to any alien civilization.
Perhaps rather than looking for signs of life out there, we should be looking for AI out there, but then we face the problem that I don’t see how a planet is going to give rise directly to AI. I can see how a planet can give rise directly to organic life, and if the principles that govern the evolution of life on Earth apply to other planets as well. I think a lot of them would, then the likelihood of ending up with a human-like civilization capable of giving rise to AI in the first place is massively limited. Once you’ve done it once, perhaps it takes over the universe and maybe there’s no issue, but it seems to me that the two are necessarily linked, that you’re not going to just turn a sterile planet into an AI life form without the intermediary of the organics first.
Lex Fridman
You have to run the full evolutionary computation with your organics to create AI?
You have to run the full evolutionary computation with your organics to create AI?
Nick Lane
How does AI bootstrap itself up without the aid, if you like, of an intelligent designer?
How does AI bootstrap itself up without the aid, if you like, of an intelligent designer?
Fermi paradox
Lex Fridman
The origin of AI is going to have to be in the chemistry of a planet, but that’s not a limiting factor. Let me ask the Fermi Paradox question. Let’s say we live in this incredibly dark and beautiful world of just billions of planets with bacteria on it and very few intelligent civilizations, and yet there’s a few out there. Why haven’t we at scale seen them visit us? What’s your sense? Is it because they don’t exist? It it because-
The origin of AI is going to have to be in the chemistry of a planet, but that’s not a limiting factor. Let me ask the Fermi Paradox question. Let’s say we live in this incredibly dark and beautiful world of just billions of planets with bacteria on it and very few intelligent civilizations, and yet there’s a few out there. Why haven’t we at scale seen them visit us? What’s your sense? Is it because they don’t exist? It it because-
Nick Lane
Well, they don’t exist in the right part of the universe at the right time. That’s the simplest answer for it.
Well, they don’t exist in the right part of the universe at the right time. That’s the simplest answer for it.
Lex Fridman
Is that the one you find the most compelling or is there some other explanation?
Is that the one you find the most compelling or is there some other explanation?
Nick Lane
No, it’s not that I find it more compelling, it’s that I find more probable and I find all of them. There’s a lot of hand waving in this, we just don’t know. I’m trying to read out from what I know about life on Earth to what might happen somewhere else. It gives to my mind a bit of a pessimistic view of bacteria everywhere and only occasional intelligent life. Running forward, humans only once on Earth and nothing else that you would necessarily be any more excited about making contact with than you would be making contact with them on Earth.
No, it’s not that I find it more compelling, it’s that I find more probable and I find all of them. There’s a lot of hand waving in this, we just don’t know. I’m trying to read out from what I know about life on Earth to what might happen somewhere else. It gives to my mind a bit of a pessimistic view of bacteria everywhere and only occasional intelligent life. Running forward, humans only once on Earth and nothing else that you would necessarily be any more excited about making contact with than you would be making contact with them on Earth.
I think the chances are pretty limited and the chances of us surviving are pretty limited too. The way we’re going on at the moment, the likelihood of us not making ourselves extinct within the next few 100 years, possibly within the next 50 or 100 years seems quite small. I hope we can do better than that. Maybe the only thing that will survive from humanity will be AI and maybe AI once it exists, and once it’s capable of effectively copying itself and cutting humans out of the loop, then maybe that will take over the universe.
Lex Fridman
There’s an inherent sadness to the way you described that, but isn’t that also potentially beautiful that that’s the next step of life? I suppose from your perspective, as long as it carries the flame of consciousness somehow.
There’s an inherent sadness to the way you described that, but isn’t that also potentially beautiful that that’s the next step of life? I suppose from your perspective, as long as it carries the flame of consciousness somehow.
Nick Lane
I think yes, there can be some beauty to it being the next step of life. I don’t know if consciousness matters or not from that point of view, to be honest with you, but there’s some sadness, yes, probably because I think it comes down to the selfishness that we were talking about earlier on. I am an individual with a desire not to be displaced from life. I want to stay alive, I want to be here. I suppose the threat that a lot of people would feel is that we will just be wiped out, so there will be potential conflicts between AI and humans, and that AI will win because it’s a lot smarter.
I think yes, there can be some beauty to it being the next step of life. I don’t know if consciousness matters or not from that point of view, to be honest with you, but there’s some sadness, yes, probably because I think it comes down to the selfishness that we were talking about earlier on. I am an individual with a desire not to be displaced from life. I want to stay alive, I want to be here. I suppose the threat that a lot of people would feel is that we will just be wiped out, so there will be potential conflicts between AI and humans, and that AI will win because it’s a lot smarter.
Lex Fridman
Boy, would that be a sad state of affairs if consciousness is just an intermediate stage between bacteria and AI.
Boy, would that be a sad state of affairs if consciousness is just an intermediate stage between bacteria and AI.
Nick Lane
Well, I would see bacteria as being potentially a primitive form of consciousness anyway. The whole of life on Earth to my mind-
Well, I would see bacteria as being potentially a primitive form of consciousness anyway. The whole of life on Earth to my mind-
Lex Fridman
Is conscious.
Is conscious.
Nick Lane
… Is capable of some form of feelings in response to the environment. That’s not to say it’s intelligent, though it’s got his own algorithms for intelligence, but nothing comparable with us. I think it’s beautiful what a sterile planet can come up with. It’s astonishing that it’s come up with all of this stuff that we see around us and that either we or whatever we produce is capable of destroying all of that is a sad thought, but it’s also hugely pessimistic. I’d like to think that we’re capable of giving rise to something which is at least as good, if not better than us as AI.
… Is capable of some form of feelings in response to the environment. That’s not to say it’s intelligent, though it’s got his own algorithms for intelligence, but nothing comparable with us. I think it’s beautiful what a sterile planet can come up with. It’s astonishing that it’s come up with all of this stuff that we see around us and that either we or whatever we produce is capable of destroying all of that is a sad thought, but it’s also hugely pessimistic. I’d like to think that we’re capable of giving rise to something which is at least as good, if not better than us as AI.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I have that same optimism, especially a thing that is able to propagate throughout the universe more efficiently than humans can or extensions of humans, some merger with AI and humans, whether that comes from bioengineering of the human body to extend its life somehow to carry that flame of consciousness and that personality and the beautiful tension that’s within all of us, carry that through to multiple planets, to multiple solar systems all out there in the universe. That’s a beautiful vision. Whether AI can do that or bio engineered humans can, that’s an exciting possibility. Especially meeting other alien civilizations in that same way.
Yeah, I have that same optimism, especially a thing that is able to propagate throughout the universe more efficiently than humans can or extensions of humans, some merger with AI and humans, whether that comes from bioengineering of the human body to extend its life somehow to carry that flame of consciousness and that personality and the beautiful tension that’s within all of us, carry that through to multiple planets, to multiple solar systems all out there in the universe. That’s a beautiful vision. Whether AI can do that or bio engineered humans can, that’s an exciting possibility. Especially meeting other alien civilizations in that same way.
Do you think aliens have consciousness?
Nick Lane
If they’re organic, yes.
If they’re organic, yes.
Lex Fridman
Organic, connected to consciousness?
Organic, connected to consciousness?
Nick Lane
I think any system which is going to bootstrap itself up from planetary origins. Let me finish this and then I come onto something else … but from planetary origins is going to face similar constraints, and those constraints are going to be addressed in similar basic engineering ways. I think it will be cellular, and I think it will have electrical charges, and I think it will have to be selected in populations over time. All of these things will tend to give rise to the same processes as the simplest fix to a difficult problem. I would expect it to be conscious, yes, and I would expect it to resemble life on Earth in many ways. When I was about 15 or 16, I remember reading a book by Fred Hoyle called The Black Cloud, which I was a budding biologist at the time and this was the first time I’d come across someone really challenging the heart of biology and saying, “You are far too parochial. You’re thinking about life as carbon-based. Here’s a life form which is kind of dust, interstellar dust on a solar system scale.”
I think any system which is going to bootstrap itself up from planetary origins. Let me finish this and then I come onto something else … but from planetary origins is going to face similar constraints, and those constraints are going to be addressed in similar basic engineering ways. I think it will be cellular, and I think it will have electrical charges, and I think it will have to be selected in populations over time. All of these things will tend to give rise to the same processes as the simplest fix to a difficult problem. I would expect it to be conscious, yes, and I would expect it to resemble life on Earth in many ways. When I was about 15 or 16, I remember reading a book by Fred Hoyle called The Black Cloud, which I was a budding biologist at the time and this was the first time I’d come across someone really challenging the heart of biology and saying, “You are far too parochial. You’re thinking about life as carbon-based. Here’s a life form which is kind of dust, interstellar dust on a solar system scale.”
It’s a novel, but I felt enormously challenged by that novel because it hadn’t occurred to me how limited my thinking was, how narrow-minded I was being. Here was a great physicist with a completely different conception of what life be. Since then, I’ve seen him attacked in various ways. I’m reluctant to say the attacks make more sense to me than the original story, which is to say even in terms of information processing, if you’re on that scale and there’s a limit of the speed of how quickly can something think, if you’re needing to broadcast across the solar system, it is going to be slow.
It’s not going to hold a conversation with you on the timelines that Fred Hoyle was imagining, or at least not by any easy way of doing it, assuming that the speed of light is a limit. Then again, you really can’t. This is something Richard Dawkins argued long ago and I do think he’s right. There is no other way to generate this level of complexity than natural selection. Nothing else can do it. You need populations and you need selection in populations and an isolated interstellar cloud. Again, there’s unlimited time and maybe there’s no problems with distance, but you need to have a certain frequency of generational time to generate a serious level of complexity. I just have a feeling it’s never going to work.
Lex Fridman
Well, as far as we know. Natural selection, evolution is really a powerful tool here on Earth, but there could be other mechanisms. I don’t know if you’re familiar with cellular automaton, but complex systems that have really simple components and seemingly move based on simple rules when they’re taken as a whole, really interesting complexity emerges. I don’t know what the pressures on that are. It’s not really selection, but interesting complexity seems to emerge, and that’s not well understood exactly why that complexity emerges.
Well, as far as we know. Natural selection, evolution is really a powerful tool here on Earth, but there could be other mechanisms. I don’t know if you’re familiar with cellular automaton, but complex systems that have really simple components and seemingly move based on simple rules when they’re taken as a whole, really interesting complexity emerges. I don’t know what the pressures on that are. It’s not really selection, but interesting complexity seems to emerge, and that’s not well understood exactly why that complexity emerges.
Nick Lane
I think there’s a difference between complexity and evolution. Some of the work we’re doing on the origin of life is thinking about how do genes arise? How does information arise in biology? Thinking about it from the point of view of reacting CO₂ with hydrogen, what do you get? Well, what you’re going to get is carboxylic acids, then amino acids. It’s quite hard to make nucleotides. It’s possible to make them, and it’s been done and it’s being done following this pathway as well, but you make trace amounts. The next question, assuming that this is the right way of seeing the question, which maybe it’s just not, but let’s assume it is well, how do you reliably make more nucleotides? How do you become more complex and better at becoming a nucleotide generating machine? The answer is, well, you need positive feedback loops, some form of autocatalysis.
I think there’s a difference between complexity and evolution. Some of the work we’re doing on the origin of life is thinking about how do genes arise? How does information arise in biology? Thinking about it from the point of view of reacting CO₂ with hydrogen, what do you get? Well, what you’re going to get is carboxylic acids, then amino acids. It’s quite hard to make nucleotides. It’s possible to make them, and it’s been done and it’s being done following this pathway as well, but you make trace amounts. The next question, assuming that this is the right way of seeing the question, which maybe it’s just not, but let’s assume it is well, how do you reliably make more nucleotides? How do you become more complex and better at becoming a nucleotide generating machine? The answer is, well, you need positive feedback loops, some form of autocatalysis.
That can work and we know it happens in biology. If this nucleotide, for example, catalyzes CO₂ fixation, then you’re going to increase the rate of flux through the whole system, and you’re going to effectively steepen the driving force to make more nucleotides. This can be inherited because there are forms of membrane heredity that you can have and there are effectively, if a cell divides in two and it’s got a lot of stuff inside it and that stuff is basically bound as a network which is capable of regenerating itself, then it will inevitably regenerate itself.
You can develop greater complexity, but everything that I’ve said depends on the underlying rules of thermodynamics. There is no evolvability about that. It’s simply an inevitable outcome of your starting point, assuming that you’re able to increase the driving force through the system. You will generate more of the same, you’ll expand on what you can do, but you’ll never get anything different than that. It’s only when you introduce information into that as a gene, as a small stretch of RNA, which can be random stretch, then you get real evolvability. Then you get biology as we know it, but you’ll also have selection as we know it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I don’t know how to think about information. That’s the memory of the system. At the local level, it’s propagation of copying yourself and changing and improving your adaptability to the environment, but if you look at Earth as a whole, it has a memory. That’s the key feature of it.
Yeah. I don’t know how to think about information. That’s the memory of the system. At the local level, it’s propagation of copying yourself and changing and improving your adaptability to the environment, but if you look at Earth as a whole, it has a memory. That’s the key feature of it.
Nick Lane
In what way?
In what way?
Lex Fridman
It remembers the stuff it tries. If you were to describe Earth, I think evolution is something that we experience as individual organisms. That’s how the individual organisms interact with each other, there’s a natural selection. But when you look at Earth as an organism in its entirety, how would you describe it?
It remembers the stuff it tries. If you were to describe Earth, I think evolution is something that we experience as individual organisms. That’s how the individual organisms interact with each other, there’s a natural selection. But when you look at Earth as an organism in its entirety, how would you describe it?
Nick Lane
Well, not as an organism. The idea of Gaia is lovely and James Lovelock originally put Gaia out as an organism that had somehow evolved and he was immediately attacked by lots of people. He’s not wrong, but he backpedaled somewhat because that was more of a poetic vision than the science. The science is now called Earth systems science, and it’s really about how does the world regulate itself so it remains within the limits which are hospitable to life, and it does it amazingly well. It is working at a planetary level of integration of regulation, but it’s not evolving by natural selection. It can’t because there’s only one of it. It can change over time, but it’s not evolving. All the evolution is happening in the parts of the system.
Well, not as an organism. The idea of Gaia is lovely and James Lovelock originally put Gaia out as an organism that had somehow evolved and he was immediately attacked by lots of people. He’s not wrong, but he backpedaled somewhat because that was more of a poetic vision than the science. The science is now called Earth systems science, and it’s really about how does the world regulate itself so it remains within the limits which are hospitable to life, and it does it amazingly well. It is working at a planetary level of integration of regulation, but it’s not evolving by natural selection. It can’t because there’s only one of it. It can change over time, but it’s not evolving. All the evolution is happening in the parts of the system.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but it’s a self-sustaining organism.
Yeah, but it’s a self-sustaining organism.
Nick Lane
No, it’s self-sustained by the sun.
No, it’s self-sustained by the sun.
Lex Fridman
Right, you don’t think it’s possible to see Earth as its own organism?
Right, you don’t think it’s possible to see Earth as its own organism?
Nick Lane
I think it’s poetic and beautiful, and I often refer to the Earth as a living planet, but it’s not in biological terms an organism, no.
I think it’s poetic and beautiful, and I often refer to the Earth as a living planet, but it’s not in biological terms an organism, no.
Lex Fridman
If aliens were to visit Earth, what would they notice? What would be the basic unit of light that would notice?
If aliens were to visit Earth, what would they notice? What would be the basic unit of light that would notice?
Nick Lane
Trees probably, it’s green and it’s green and blue. I think that’s the first thing you’d notice is it stands out from space as being different to any of the other planets.
Trees probably, it’s green and it’s green and blue. I think that’s the first thing you’d notice is it stands out from space as being different to any of the other planets.
Lex Fridman
Would notice the trees at first because the green?
Would notice the trees at first because the green?
Nick Lane
Well, I would. I notice the green, yes.
Well, I would. I notice the green, yes.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Then probably notice to figure out the photosynthesis and then-
Yeah. Then probably notice to figure out the photosynthesis and then-
Nick Lane
Probably notice cities a second there, I suspect. Maybe first. If they arrived at night, they noticed cities first, that’s for sure.
Probably notice cities a second there, I suspect. Maybe first. If they arrived at night, they noticed cities first, that’s for sure.
Cities
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it depends the time. You write quite beautifully in Transformers. Once again, I think you opened the book in this way. I don’t remember. From space describing Earth, it’s such an interesting idea of what Earth is. Hitchhiker’s Guide summarizing it as harmless or mostly harmless. It’s a beautifully poetic thing.
Yeah, it depends the time. You write quite beautifully in Transformers. Once again, I think you opened the book in this way. I don’t remember. From space describing Earth, it’s such an interesting idea of what Earth is. Hitchhiker’s Guide summarizing it as harmless or mostly harmless. It’s a beautifully poetic thing.
You open Transformers with “From space, it looks gray and crystalline, obliterating the blue-green colors of the living Earth. It is crisscrossed by regular patterns and convergence striations. There’s a central amorphous density where these scratches seem lighter. This ‘growth’ does not look alive, although it has extended out along some lines and there is something grasping and parasitic about it. Across the globe, there are thousands of them varying in shape and detail, but all of them, gray, angular, inorganic, spreading. Yet at night they light up, glowing up the dark sky, suddenly beautiful. Perhaps these cankers on the landscape are in some sense living. There’s a controlled flow of energy. There must be information and some form of metabolism, some turnover of materials. Are they alive? No, of course not. They are cities.”
Is there some sense that cities are living beings? You think aliens would think of them as living beings?
Nick Lane
Well, it’d be easy to see it that way, wouldn’t it?
Well, it’d be easy to see it that way, wouldn’t it?
Lex Fridman
It wakes up at night, they wake up at night.
It wakes up at night, they wake up at night.
Nick Lane
Strictly nocturnal, yes. I imagine that any aliens that are smart enough to get here would understand that they’re not living beings. My reason for saying that is that we tend to think of biology in terms of information and forget about the cells. I was trying to draw a comparison between the cell as a city and the energy flow through the city and the energy flow through cells and the turnover of materials. An interesting thing about cities is that they’re not really exactly governed by anybody. There are regulations and systems and whatever else, but it’s pretty loose. They have their own life, their own way of developing over time.
Strictly nocturnal, yes. I imagine that any aliens that are smart enough to get here would understand that they’re not living beings. My reason for saying that is that we tend to think of biology in terms of information and forget about the cells. I was trying to draw a comparison between the cell as a city and the energy flow through the city and the energy flow through cells and the turnover of materials. An interesting thing about cities is that they’re not really exactly governed by anybody. There are regulations and systems and whatever else, but it’s pretty loose. They have their own life, their own way of developing over time.
In that sense, they’re quite biological. There was a plan after the Great Fire of London, Christopher Wren was making plans not only for St. Paul’s Cathedral, but also to rebuild in large Parisian-type boulevards, a large part of the area of central London that was burnt. It never happened because they didn’t have enough money I think, but it’s interesting what was in the plan. There were all these boulevards, but there were no pubs and no coffee houses or anything like that. The reality was London just grew up in a set of jumbled streets.
It was the coffee houses and the pubs where all the business of the City of London was being done. That was where the real life of the city was. No one had planned it. The whole thing was unplanned and works much better that way. In that sense, the cell is completely unplanned. It’s not controlled by the genes in the nucleus in the way that we might like to think that it is, but it’s an evolved entity that has the same flux, the same animation, the same life. I think it’s a beautiful analogy, but I wouldn’t get too stuck with it as a metaphor.
Lex Fridman
See, I disagree with you. I disagree with you. I think you are so steeped. Actually, the entirety of science, the history of science is steeped in a biological framework of thinking about what is life. Not just biological, is very human-centric too, that the human organism is the epitome of life on Earth. I don’t know, I think there is some deep fundamental way-
See, I disagree with you. I disagree with you. I think you are so steeped. Actually, the entirety of science, the history of science is steeped in a biological framework of thinking about what is life. Not just biological, is very human-centric too, that the human organism is the epitome of life on Earth. I don’t know, I think there is some deep fundamental way-
Lex Fridman
On earth, I don’t know. I think there is some defundimental way in which a city is a living being in the same way that a-
On earth, I don’t know. I think there is some defundimental way in which a city is a living being in the same way that a-
Nick Lane
It doesn’t give rise to an offspring city. So it doesn’t work by natural selection, it works by, if anything, memes, it works by.
It doesn’t give rise to an offspring city. So it doesn’t work by natural selection, it works by, if anything, memes, it works by.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But isn’t it-
Yeah. But isn’t it-
Nick Lane
Copying itself conceptually as a mode of being?
Copying itself conceptually as a mode of being?
Lex Fridman
So, maybe memes, maybe ideas are the organisms that are really essential to life on Earth. Maybe it’s much more important about the collective aspect of human nature, the collective intelligence than the individual intelligence. Maybe the collective humanity is the organism and the thing that defines the collective intelligence of humanity is the ideas. And maybe the way that manifests itself is cities maybe, or societies or geographically constrained societies or nations and all that kind of stuff. From an alien perspective, it’s possible that that is the more deeply noticeable thing, not from a place of ignorance.
So, maybe memes, maybe ideas are the organisms that are really essential to life on Earth. Maybe it’s much more important about the collective aspect of human nature, the collective intelligence than the individual intelligence. Maybe the collective humanity is the organism and the thing that defines the collective intelligence of humanity is the ideas. And maybe the way that manifests itself is cities maybe, or societies or geographically constrained societies or nations and all that kind of stuff. From an alien perspective, it’s possible that that is the more deeply noticeable thing, not from a place of ignorance.
Nick Lane
Yes, but what’s noticeable doesn’t tell you how it works. I don’t have any problem with what you’re saying really, except that it’s not possible without the humans. We went from a hunter-gatherers type economy, if you like, without cities, through to cities. And as soon as we get into human evolution and culture and society and so on, then yes, there are other forms of evolution, other forms of change. But cities don’t directly propagate themselves, they propagate themselves through human societies. And human societies only exist because humans as individuals propagate themselves. So there is a hierarchy there. And without the humans in the first place, none of the rest of it exists.
Yes, but what’s noticeable doesn’t tell you how it works. I don’t have any problem with what you’re saying really, except that it’s not possible without the humans. We went from a hunter-gatherers type economy, if you like, without cities, through to cities. And as soon as we get into human evolution and culture and society and so on, then yes, there are other forms of evolution, other forms of change. But cities don’t directly propagate themselves, they propagate themselves through human societies. And human societies only exist because humans as individuals propagate themselves. So there is a hierarchy there. And without the humans in the first place, none of the rest of it exists.
Lex Fridman