This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #503 with Math AI Crisis.
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Table of Contents
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- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:56 – Crisis moment in mathematics
- 10:13 – Will AI “solve” mathematics?
- 26:24 – Can AI create new math?
- 1:05:56 – Riemann hypothesis
- 1:29:49 – Navier-Stokes
- 1:55:45 – How nature computes
- 2:04:39 – Unique Games Conjecture and complexity theory
- 2:19:31 – How mathematicians think
- 2:33:08 – Is math invented or discovered?
- 2:39:16 – Can AI solve P vs NP?
- 2:49:31 – Why LLMs work so well
- 3:03:57 – Problems AI can’t solve yet
- 3:08:27 – Grigori Perelman
- 3:17:45 – Advice for young people
Introduction
Lex Fridman
All right, so this is a kind of emergency episode, I think it’s fair to say, about the state of mathematics and artificial intelligence. A kind of crisis moment in the history of mathematics. Over the last few weeks, machines claimed to have solved some of the hardest problems in the history of math: Navier-Stokes, the quasi-Riemann hypothesis, the unique games conjecture, and hundreds of other results. So here with me, we have Steven Brunton, who’s a mathematician, fluid dynamics expert at University of Washington, who can speak to Navier-Stokes, turbulence, all things fluid, and many other topics.
All right, so this is a kind of emergency episode, I think it’s fair to say, about the state of mathematics and artificial intelligence. A kind of crisis moment in the history of mathematics. Over the last few weeks, machines claimed to have solved some of the hardest problems in the history of math: Navier-Stokes, the quasi-Riemann hypothesis, the unique games conjecture, and hundreds of other results. So here with me, we have Steven Brunton, who’s a mathematician, fluid dynamics expert at University of Washington, who can speak to Navier-Stokes, turbulence, all things fluid, and many other topics.
Lex Fridman
Also, here’s Ankur Moitra, a mathematician and theoretical computer scientist at MIT, visiting Institute for Advanced Studies in Princeton this year, who can speak to many things: unique games conjecture and complexity theory in general, and the mathematics of how the AI learns, and all things theoretical computer science. And Alex, a mathematician, number theorist at Rutgers, who can speak to also very many topics, including Riemann hypothesis and Lean, the automated proof and the automated verifier and checking and so on, and so many other topics in mathematics. All three are brilliant.
Also, here’s Ankur Moitra, a mathematician and theoretical computer scientist at MIT, visiting Institute for Advanced Studies in Princeton this year, who can speak to many things: unique games conjecture and complexity theory in general, and the mathematics of how the AI learns, and all things theoretical computer science. And Alex, a mathematician, number theorist at Rutgers, who can speak to also very many topics, including Riemann hypothesis and Lean, the automated proof and the automated verifier and checking and so on, and so many other topics in mathematics. All three are brilliant.
Lex Fridman
All are very kind to show up this early morning and talk to me, assemble this kinda multi-agent mini swarm of human brains to try to interpret what happened in this very moment.
All are very kind to show up this early morning and talk to me, assemble this kinda multi-agent mini swarm of human brains to try to interpret what happened in this very moment.
Crisis moment in mathematics
Lex Fridman
A lot of mathematicians, brilliant mathematicians, including Terence Tao and others, are freaking out. It’s a mix of awe, terror, dread, and few inklings of light, of hope also. So I apologize to start with a question about feeling, but what have you been feeling about this historic moment? Maybe Alex, do you wanna go first?
A lot of mathematicians, brilliant mathematicians, including Terence Tao and others, are freaking out. It’s a mix of awe, terror, dread, and few inklings of light, of hope also. So I apologize to start with a question about feeling, but what have you been feeling about this historic moment? Maybe Alex, do you wanna go first?
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah, I don’t know if I would call it a crisis. There’s a lot of opportunity in that crisis. It’s a, it’s a chance to rethink what it is we’re trying to accomplish, and it’s the chaos of opportunity that some people are reacting negatively to, some people are reacting positively to, and sometimes those reactions are happening in the same person. And so I think we’re entering, if we’re not already in, a period of some kind of golden age of mathematical knowledge after millennia of having a candle that we are walking around the woods, and this is as far as we can see. Now we have a flashlight.
Yeah, I don’t know if I would call it a crisis. There’s a lot of opportunity in that crisis. It’s a, it’s a chance to rethink what it is we’re trying to accomplish, and it’s the chaos of opportunity that some people are reacting negatively to, some people are reacting positively to, and sometimes those reactions are happening in the same person. And so I think we’re entering, if we’re not already in, a period of some kind of golden age of mathematical knowledge after millennia of having a candle that we are walking around the woods, and this is as far as we can see. Now we have a flashlight.
Lex Fridman
I think we should comment on the magnitude of this moment for people who are not aware. So maybe to quote you, something like “Holy shit, if a human did this, it’d be an instant Fields Medal.” Maybe you didn’t say, “Holy shit,” but basically saying this is an incredible result. So a lot of people wouldn’t have expected this amount of progress in this amount of time, so this is truly shocking. So you’re now speaking as a person who is dealing with the feelings you’ve felt over the last couple of days, having found this out. So maybe also it’d be useful to go back to the feeling you were having when you first saw the report that, in this case, OpenAI dropped.
I think we should comment on the magnitude of this moment for people who are not aware. So maybe to quote you, something like “Holy shit, if a human did this, it’d be an instant Fields Medal.” Maybe you didn’t say, “Holy shit,” but basically saying this is an incredible result. So a lot of people wouldn’t have expected this amount of progress in this amount of time, so this is truly shocking. So you’re now speaking as a person who is dealing with the feelings you’ve felt over the last couple of days, having found this out. So maybe also it’d be useful to go back to the feeling you were having when you first saw the report that, in this case, OpenAI dropped.
Lex Fridman
And the two of you happened to be on camera loosely on the same day, maybe a few drinks in because it was a conference or a get-together. Maybe, Ankur, you– can you speak to what you were feeling?
And the two of you happened to be on camera loosely on the same day, maybe a few drinks in because it was a conference or a get-together. Maybe, Ankur, you– can you speak to what you were feeling?
Ankur Moitra
It was an interesting night when the results dropped. Now, it was not entirely unexpected because for weeks there’d been rumors about the two biggest problems in my areas that were in that collection of results, so the unique games conjecture and RL equals L. There were even rumors about matrix multiplication, so really my first reaction was, “Wow, it’s all true. Thank goodness it’s finally out there because now people can actually go through it and process what’s happened and figure out what to do next.” Now, as to your earlier question, you know, what are we feeling? Well, for me, it changes on a daily basis, but I think the biggest, most overarching feeling is really feeling like you’re getting pulled in two very different directions.
It was an interesting night when the results dropped. Now, it was not entirely unexpected because for weeks there’d been rumors about the two biggest problems in my areas that were in that collection of results, so the unique games conjecture and RL equals L. There were even rumors about matrix multiplication, so really my first reaction was, “Wow, it’s all true. Thank goodness it’s finally out there because now people can actually go through it and process what’s happened and figure out what to do next.” Now, as to your earlier question, you know, what are we feeling? Well, for me, it changes on a daily basis, but I think the biggest, most overarching feeling is really feeling like you’re getting pulled in two very different directions.
Ankur Moitra
My work has always been about asking the right questions, and to that extent, these tools are amazing for me because, you know, they increase my ability to learn about other fields. It’s like having a world expert who’s there to teach you about things in your own language. Your ability to make connections is just magnified. But, you know, one of the parts of my job that I really love the most is the mentorship aspect. Not just training grad students and postdocs and seeing them do great things, but having them come with me on these journeys. So the part that pulls me in the other direction is the recognition that, you know, the playbook and the blueprint for success that we had for so long is now thrown out the window.
My work has always been about asking the right questions, and to that extent, these tools are amazing for me because, you know, they increase my ability to learn about other fields. It’s like having a world expert who’s there to teach you about things in your own language. Your ability to make connections is just magnified. But, you know, one of the parts of my job that I really love the most is the mentorship aspect. Not just training grad students and postdocs and seeing them do great things, but having them come with me on these journeys. So the part that pulls me in the other direction is the recognition that, you know, the playbook and the blueprint for success that we had for so long is now thrown out the window.
Ankur Moitra
So it becomes a lot harder to advise students and postdocs about, you know, what are things they should be working on that are gonna make an impact, are gonna make a name for themselves. So I feel very excited, but maybe more intellectually lonely than I felt before in part because, you know, a lot of times great results come from asking very humble questions, at least for me. And now there’s so much anxiety and dread and feeling that, wow, you would have to do something really momentous to stand out in the sea of AI results, that it feels like we’ve lost some of that patience in terms of planting the seeds from which the great oak trees grow.
So it becomes a lot harder to advise students and postdocs about, you know, what are things they should be working on that are gonna make an impact, are gonna make a name for themselves. So I feel very excited, but maybe more intellectually lonely than I felt before in part because, you know, a lot of times great results come from asking very humble questions, at least for me. And now there’s so much anxiety and dread and feeling that, wow, you would have to do something really momentous to stand out in the sea of AI results, that it feels like we’ve lost some of that patience in terms of planting the seeds from which the great oak trees grow.
Lex Fridman
Terence Tao, Fields Medal winner, wrote, “I am horrified by the many person-years of ongoing patient and deliberately slow research efforts, particularly by graduate students and postdocs, toward many motivating problems in mathematics being casually disrupted or destroyed by such a release.” Much as one cannot unhear a movie spoiler or a crossword clue, one cannot explore a problem as profitably and richly once one is aware of an existing solution, and I mourn the path not taken and the opportunities lost in the frantic race to develop the technology. So I mean, if we’re being realistic, it’s more dramatic for a PhD student and a postdoc than maybe the way you’ve articulated.
Terence Tao, Fields Medal winner, wrote, “I am horrified by the many person-years of ongoing patient and deliberately slow research efforts, particularly by graduate students and postdocs, toward many motivating problems in mathematics being casually disrupted or destroyed by such a release.” Much as one cannot unhear a movie spoiler or a crossword clue, one cannot explore a problem as profitably and richly once one is aware of an existing solution, and I mourn the path not taken and the opportunities lost in the frantic race to develop the technology. So I mean, if we’re being realistic, it’s more dramatic for a PhD student and a postdoc than maybe the way you’ve articulated.
Lex Fridman
I mean, you’re saying it quite calmly, but if I was a PhD student right now, I’d be in a state of, like, shock. Like, my whole life– I was going through some of this. I know a lot of my friends are programmers. They’re going through this state of shock in last December when basically most of the programming world switched to AI writing most of the programs. So I would approximate it to a feeling of kind of a loss of meaning, kind of terror, like dark stuff. We’ll keep exploring that. Steve, what do you think? What were you– what are you feeling?
I mean, you’re saying it quite calmly, but if I was a PhD student right now, I’d be in a state of, like, shock. Like, my whole life– I was going through some of this. I know a lot of my friends are programmers. They’re going through this state of shock in last December when basically most of the programming world switched to AI writing most of the programs. So I would approximate it to a feeling of kind of a loss of meaning, kind of terror, like dark stuff. We’ll keep exploring that. Steve, what do you think? What were you– what are you feeling?
Steven Brunton
I would say most of my feelings are pretty hopeful. I think I’m an engineer. I like solving, you know, problems that make technology more realistic for humans, artificial hearts and airplanes. And our ability to solve real applied problems is going to get much, much better. Our scope and reach is gonna increase, and so for that, I’m extremely hopeful. But there is a lot of uncertainty, and I think, you know, some of this fear of meaning, of losing control, of you know, just being kind of cut out of the process that we all love being a part of it is a little scary.
I would say most of my feelings are pretty hopeful. I think I’m an engineer. I like solving, you know, problems that make technology more realistic for humans, artificial hearts and airplanes. And our ability to solve real applied problems is going to get much, much better. Our scope and reach is gonna increase, and so for that, I’m extremely hopeful. But there is a lot of uncertainty, and I think, you know, some of this fear of meaning, of losing control, of you know, just being kind of cut out of the process that we all love being a part of it is a little scary.
Steven Brunton
And I don’t think any of us would be surprised at either of the kind of two paths that might take place over the next five or 10 years, where we really are just dwarfed by you know, other intelligence, or it kind of levels off, and this becomes an incredible tool that we use for our curiosity, for our human problem-solving. And that uncertainty is massive. Those are two very different worlds. And so uncertainty is difficult for humans. I think it’s also difficult for those of us who have chosen math. We chose math, you know, probably because we liked rules and formalism and, you know, uncertainty is uncomfortable. I think the humility aspect is really important, though. This is a really good opportunity for us to remember why we’re doing this.
And I don’t think any of us would be surprised at either of the kind of two paths that might take place over the next five or 10 years, where we really are just dwarfed by you know, other intelligence, or it kind of levels off, and this becomes an incredible tool that we use for our curiosity, for our human problem-solving. And that uncertainty is massive. Those are two very different worlds. And so uncertainty is difficult for humans. I think it’s also difficult for those of us who have chosen math. We chose math, you know, probably because we liked rules and formalism and, you know, uncertainty is uncomfortable. I think the humility aspect is really important, though. This is a really good opportunity for us to remember why we’re doing this.
Steven Brunton
Like, what is human purpose? It’s not to be famous. It’s not to have a Fields Medal. You know, solving interesting problems, helping other people, being curious, just wanting to understand the world—those are really good things to kind of get back. Like, what do we need to be satisfied humans? And I think that’s a really interesting moment for us to think about. Like, I’ve been thinking about it a lot lately. It is more difficult for young people, right? Like figuring out how to find their way. But I actually have more faith in them than us in a sense.
Like, what is human purpose? It’s not to be famous. It’s not to have a Fields Medal. You know, solving interesting problems, helping other people, being curious, just wanting to understand the world—those are really good things to kind of get back. Like, what do we need to be satisfied humans? And I think that’s a really interesting moment for us to think about. Like, I’ve been thinking about it a lot lately. It is more difficult for young people, right? Like figuring out how to find their way. But I actually have more faith in them than us in a sense.
Lex Fridman
Do you think there’s something to what Terry says about it’s harder to be motivated when you know a problem has been solved, to explore that space when a problem’s been solved like this by an AI system?
Do you think there’s something to what Terry says about it’s harder to be motivated when you know a problem has been solved, to explore that space when a problem’s been solved like this by an AI system?
Steven Brunton
Yes and no, in the sense that I do very much agree that the path is as important as the destination. Like, if you go on a road trip, the road trip is, you know, is usually just as fun as, as getting there. At the same time, if we found out that another country had invented teleportation or time travel, I guarantee we would reinvent it in the next five years. Like, if you knew it was possible and you could reverse engineer a little bit, we would be curious, we would dive into it, and we would figure it out. So knowing there’s a solution also is an incredible motivation to get there much faster.
Yes and no, in the sense that I do very much agree that the path is as important as the destination. Like, if you go on a road trip, the road trip is, you know, is usually just as fun as, as getting there. At the same time, if we found out that another country had invented teleportation or time travel, I guarantee we would reinvent it in the next five years. Like, if you knew it was possible and you could reverse engineer a little bit, we would be curious, we would dive into it, and we would figure it out. So knowing there’s a solution also is an incredible motivation to get there much faster.
Will AI “solve” mathematics?
Lex Fridman
Let me ask the question this way. If this moment marks the moment of the trajectory where AI basically, quote-unquote, “solves math” or kills math, can you make the case that that is in fact a trajectory, and then can you make the case that that is not a trajectory? Can you steelman both paths? That this is a path towards which, like, mathematics as we know it is done completely, so that’s gonna be a thing done by machines, and then what humans do is something fundamentally different, or there still will be something that looks similar to our current mathematics. Can you steelman both cases? Alex.
Let me ask the question this way. If this moment marks the moment of the trajectory where AI basically, quote-unquote, “solves math” or kills math, can you make the case that that is in fact a trajectory, and then can you make the case that that is not a trajectory? Can you steelman both paths? That this is a path towards which, like, mathematics as we know it is done completely, so that’s gonna be a thing done by machines, and then what humans do is something fundamentally different, or there still will be something that looks similar to our current mathematics. Can you steelman both cases? Alex.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah. So, you know, you said two things, and I’d like to separate them. One is solve math, and the other is destroy math. So, uh- … let’s make that precise. What does solve math mean? If you think back to when chess engines first came out and people were like, “Oh, this is gonna be amazing. We’ll play centaur games.” So this is a human being plus a computer system against another human being and a computer system, and that lasted like 10 seconds- … and then the computers got so good that if you did anything but choose the top move that the computer recommended, you would lose.
Yeah. So, you know, you said two things, and I’d like to separate them. One is solve math, and the other is destroy math. So, uh- … let’s make that precise. What does solve math mean? If you think back to when chess engines first came out and people were like, “Oh, this is gonna be amazing. We’ll play centaur games.” So this is a human being plus a computer system against another human being and a computer system, and that lasted like 10 seconds- … and then the computers got so good that if you did anything but choose the top move that the computer recommended, you would lose.
Alex Kontorovich
And so the human being’s role in that game became, “Yes, accept the first move. Yes, accept the first move.” That’s no longer fun, and we don’t see many games of centaur chess anymore, right? And so in fact, I just had a conversation with a colleague named Thomas Goberta where we axiomatized our argument for what the future might look like, and one of the axioms that I’m willing to even accept for the sake of argument is what I call the solved axiom. And the solved axiom says, let’s assume at some future point, we’re nowhere near there now, and I don’t expect us to be there necessarily. We’ll see, you know, where the capabilities taper off if they do.
And so the human being’s role in that game became, “Yes, accept the first move. Yes, accept the first move.” That’s no longer fun, and we don’t see many games of centaur chess anymore, right? And so in fact, I just had a conversation with a colleague named Thomas Goberta where we axiomatized our argument for what the future might look like, and one of the axioms that I’m willing to even accept for the sake of argument is what I call the solved axiom. And the solved axiom says, let’s assume at some future point, we’re nowhere near there now, and I don’t expect us to be there necessarily. We’ll see, you know, where the capabilities taper off if they do.
Alex Kontorovich
But let’s assume the solved axiom, which says any mathematical problem that can be solved with human interacting with AI could also have been solved by AI alone. That’s the solved axiom. So that would mean that really there’s nothing new for a human being to cont– you know, you can say to an AI system, “Okay, I have problem X, I wanna think about problem X,” but the only way that I will make progress, any progress that it’ll make on problem X, will just be press a button. The AI thinks about it. It doesn’t necessarily solve it, doesn’t mean that it’ll solve every problem. The Riemann hypothesis is not solved, okay? That’s what I really want the solution to. I just didn’t think in my lifetime I would see any kind of progress-
But let’s assume the solved axiom, which says any mathematical problem that can be solved with human interacting with AI could also have been solved by AI alone. That’s the solved axiom. So that would mean that really there’s nothing new for a human being to cont– you know, you can say to an AI system, “Okay, I have problem X, I wanna think about problem X,” but the only way that I will make progress, any progress that it’ll make on problem X, will just be press a button. The AI thinks about it. It doesn’t necessarily solve it, doesn’t mean that it’ll solve every problem. The Riemann hypothesis is not solved, okay? That’s what I really want the solution to. I just didn’t think in my lifetime I would see any kind of progress-
Alex Kontorovich
… towards it that we saw a few days ago. So it’s not that AI systems are solving every problem. They’re solving every problem that could be solved by humans interacting with AI. That’s what that axiom would be. So I’m saying, if we are ever in that world, does that necessarily destroy mathematics? And my strong argument is no, I don’t think it destroys mathematics.
… towards it that we saw a few days ago. So it’s not that AI systems are solving every problem. They’re solving every problem that could be solved by humans interacting with AI. That’s what that axiom would be. So I’m saying, if we are ever in that world, does that necessarily destroy mathematics? And my strong argument is no, I don’t think it destroys mathematics.
Lex Fridman
If that axiom is true, what’s the role of humans?
If that axiom is true, what’s the role of humans?
Alex Kontorovich
So I don’t think that mathematics, pure mathematics, not engineering mathematics, not things that will cure cancer and, and solve, you know, jet– everybody has a jet pack or whatever other technological advancement you might imagine. Pure mathematics, you know, we know that we’re proving theorems just because we’re curious about them. I don’t think the solution to theorems living in ones and zeros in data centers is valuable to human beings. I think the value of pure mathematics is that it lives in the heads of human beings.
So I don’t think that mathematics, pure mathematics, not engineering mathematics, not things that will cure cancer and, and solve, you know, jet– everybody has a jet pack or whatever other technological advancement you might imagine. Pure mathematics, you know, we know that we’re proving theorems just because we’re curious about them. I don’t think the solution to theorems living in ones and zeros in data centers is valuable to human beings. I think the value of pure mathematics is that it lives in the heads of human beings.
Ankur Moitra
So just to, you know, add to this, I mean, I’m glad you came right out with the question that’s on everyone’s minds. So thank you for that. I would caution against overfitting to one objective function for this, right?
So just to, you know, add to this, I mean, I’m glad you came right out with the question that’s on everyone’s minds. So thank you for that. I would caution against overfitting to one objective function for this, right?
Ankur Moitra
Because, you know, we used to think of ourselves as just the smartest things around. You know, human mathematicians can solve, you know, reach the highest treetops. But now we’re faced with the fact that many of the problems that we thought were, you know, quite a ways out have been solved by AI. But maybe one of the consolations we can take is actually the fact that we’re very computationally limited compared to the way that AI is solving it. You know, given the same finish line of proving the same theorem, I can’t really hold that many papers or ideas in my head at one time.
Because, you know, we used to think of ourselves as just the smartest things around. You know, human mathematicians can solve, you know, reach the highest treetops. But now we’re faced with the fact that many of the problems that we thought were, you know, quite a ways out have been solved by AI. But maybe one of the consolations we can take is actually the fact that we’re very computationally limited compared to the way that AI is solving it. You know, given the same finish line of proving the same theorem, I can’t really hold that many papers or ideas in my head at one time.
Ankur Moitra
So in order for me to reach that same finish line, maybe I have to develop more generalizable and abstractable ways of getting there that then help you not just solve that one problem, but, you know, explain connections or other directions you want to get into, right? So it’s always amazing when you look back on papers you’ve written, and you can see these threads, invisible sometimes, that connect different areas of work, because developing systems of ways of understanding problems helps you for surrounding problems, not just to get a lean, formalized, you know, one theorem down.
So in order for me to reach that same finish line, maybe I have to develop more generalizable and abstractable ways of getting there that then help you not just solve that one problem, but, you know, explain connections or other directions you want to get into, right? So it’s always amazing when you look back on papers you’ve written, and you can see these threads, invisible sometimes, that connect different areas of work, because developing systems of ways of understanding problems helps you for surrounding problems, not just to get a lean, formalized, you know, one theorem down.
Lex Fridman
But the interesting thing here is those threads, what you’re saying is sometimes invisible, are quite visible to the AI systems now. It seems like that’s perhaps the actual very reason why they’re able to make so much progress, is they can extract the threads and pull on them because they have the view of the so many papers.
But the interesting thing here is those threads, what you’re saying is sometimes invisible, are quite visible to the AI systems now. It seems like that’s perhaps the actual very reason why they’re able to make so much progress, is they can extract the threads and pull on them because they have the view of the so many papers.
Ankur Moitra
I think it depends on what you mean by threads. You know, for me, the reason you prove results is so that you better understand the world around you. Mathematics, to me, is a vehicle for abstraction and understanding things. And you know, it’s when you have a major result, what’s important is not just the truth of the statement, but what you’ve learned en route to doing that. Usually, people’s first question is, “Okay, you proved something fantastic, but how did you do it?” And then people, once they digest that new idea, that new definition, that new way of looking at things, there are lots of other problems nearby that fall. So somehow you’re building structures that help you attack not just one problem, but a whole sea of problems.
I think it depends on what you mean by threads. You know, for me, the reason you prove results is so that you better understand the world around you. Mathematics, to me, is a vehicle for abstraction and understanding things. And you know, it’s when you have a major result, what’s important is not just the truth of the statement, but what you’ve learned en route to doing that. Usually, people’s first question is, “Okay, you proved something fantastic, but how did you do it?” And then people, once they digest that new idea, that new definition, that new way of looking at things, there are lots of other problems nearby that fall. So somehow you’re building structures that help you attack not just one problem, but a whole sea of problems.
Ankur Moitra
And, you know, it’s not that we need fully formalized, you know, results to do that. Sometimes we reason in very sloppy metaphors that, you know, help us conceptualize the world around us.
And, you know, it’s not that we need fully formalized, you know, results to do that. Sometimes we reason in very sloppy metaphors that, you know, help us conceptualize the world around us.
Lex Fridman
And how much of this is something Alex mentioned offline, attention is all you need. How much of this is the human ability to shine a light on particular areas that, quote-unquote, matter? So the human ability to ask the right questions, the important questions.
And how much of this is something Alex mentioned offline, attention is all you need. How much of this is the human ability to shine a light on particular areas that, quote-unquote, matter? So the human ability to ask the right questions, the important questions.
Alex Kontorovich
That’s always been the case. So within this– before AI, there’s a– you can think of, like, here’s the axioms, and just abstractly from the axioms, you can get to logical deductions, right? There are theorems that we could prove from the axioms. And there’s a much, much, much larger space of theorems that we could prove than the space that human beings ever actually care about. And so, you know, so by, almost by definition, it’s like a tautology that the theorems that we’ll get excited about are the theorems that we care about as humans. So maybe AI can convince us that there’s some interesting structure. Maybe it can say, “Hey, look over here. Let me give you this new definition or something.” It hasn’t done that yet.
That’s always been the case. So within this– before AI, there’s a– you can think of, like, here’s the axioms, and just abstractly from the axioms, you can get to logical deductions, right? There are theorems that we could prove from the axioms. And there’s a much, much, much larger space of theorems that we could prove than the space that human beings ever actually care about. And so, you know, so by, almost by definition, it’s like a tautology that the theorems that we’ll get excited about are the theorems that we care about as humans. So maybe AI can convince us that there’s some interesting structure. Maybe it can say, “Hey, look over here. Let me give you this new definition or something.” It hasn’t done that yet.
Lex Fridman
And sometimes the mechanism by which we select the things that we care about, it could have an application. So Navier-Stokes is connected to fluids and all natural systems. But it could also be a thing that some kinda mixture of beauty and difficulty that just pulls at us. Maybe there’s an intuition. You know, the prime numbers are full of these really complicated problems that maybe don’t have an obvious application in the immediate sense, but it pulls at us somehow. And maybe as a symptom of the pursuit of the hard thing, great applied mathematics and engineering and solutions to real world problems comes out.
And sometimes the mechanism by which we select the things that we care about, it could have an application. So Navier-Stokes is connected to fluids and all natural systems. But it could also be a thing that some kinda mixture of beauty and difficulty that just pulls at us. Maybe there’s an intuition. You know, the prime numbers are full of these really complicated problems that maybe don’t have an obvious application in the immediate sense, but it pulls at us somehow. And maybe as a symptom of the pursuit of the hard thing, great applied mathematics and engineering and solutions to real world problems comes out.
Ankur Moitra
So just, you know, as an example, right? A lot of times when I’m working on a problem, I might have some, like, bigger goal that I want to accomplish, but usually what I do is I try to find the simplest, most embarrassing open problem that I still don’t know how to solve. You know, that aspect of like digesting it down to something, boy, how can we not know this? It, you know, it feels like it’s on the right track because then when we can solve that example, maybe we’re assembling the set of tools we need to make attacks on other problems. So I do think we’re gonna have to become a lot more deliberate about, you know, what do we care about? How do we use these tools from a metacognition standpoint? You know, what exactly are we delegating to them and what are we not delegating to them?
So just, you know, as an example, right? A lot of times when I’m working on a problem, I might have some, like, bigger goal that I want to accomplish, but usually what I do is I try to find the simplest, most embarrassing open problem that I still don’t know how to solve. You know, that aspect of like digesting it down to something, boy, how can we not know this? It, you know, it feels like it’s on the right track because then when we can solve that example, maybe we’re assembling the set of tools we need to make attacks on other problems. So I do think we’re gonna have to become a lot more deliberate about, you know, what do we care about? How do we use these tools from a metacognition standpoint? You know, what exactly are we delegating to them and what are we not delegating to them?
Ankur Moitra
And we’re really at the beginning stages where we’re just trying to piece it together as we go along. You know, on the one hand, looking for a proof is kind of like exploring this tree of possibilities. You might have some intuitions based on some other proofs you’ve seen about, you know, which directions to go in. Maybe I should go down this branch, maybe I should go down this branch. But sometimes we encounter, you know, points on the tree which have really high branching factor. We just don’t know which way to go down. We don’t even have a guess about if we went down them, what would we discover? And now in this centaur world of math, we suddenly, you know, have something else intelligent that we can interact with, right?
And we’re really at the beginning stages where we’re just trying to piece it together as we go along. You know, on the one hand, looking for a proof is kind of like exploring this tree of possibilities. You might have some intuitions based on some other proofs you’ve seen about, you know, which directions to go in. Maybe I should go down this branch, maybe I should go down this branch. But sometimes we encounter, you know, points on the tree which have really high branching factor. We just don’t know which way to go down. We don’t even have a guess about if we went down them, what would we discover? And now in this centaur world of math, we suddenly, you know, have something else intelligent that we can interact with, right?
Ankur Moitra
And what is the right way to use that tool to search for the beautiful theories, I think will be challenging and evolving, but it’s important to not lose sight of the fact that we don’t just care about theorems. So I, you know, I’m a mathematician, I’m a theoretical computer scientist, but I’ve also been reading a little bit more broadly, you know, about social sciences just to sort of make my peace with all of the changes that have been happening. One of the things that really stuck in my mind that I liked is there’s something called the doorman fallacy, which is very interesting. So the idea is that you take a complex job and you boil it down to its simplest, most visible task. So what does a doorman do? I guess they hold the door for people as they’re coming and going, right?
And what is the right way to use that tool to search for the beautiful theories, I think will be challenging and evolving, but it’s important to not lose sight of the fact that we don’t just care about theorems. So I, you know, I’m a mathematician, I’m a theoretical computer scientist, but I’ve also been reading a little bit more broadly, you know, about social sciences just to sort of make my peace with all of the changes that have been happening. One of the things that really stuck in my mind that I liked is there’s something called the doorman fallacy, which is very interesting. So the idea is that you take a complex job and you boil it down to its simplest, most visible task. So what does a doorman do? I guess they hold the door for people as they’re coming and going, right?
Ankur Moitra
And when we lived in New York, we really enjoyed talking to our doorman. You know, they were wonderful people, but, you know, if you digest it down to just that simple job, you can think, “Oh, I can replace them just by a sliding door that detects when people are going or coming,” and you miss out on all the aspects of their job that, you know, add a lot of value and are harder to articulate. And I think that’s a good way to think about mathematics in the age of AI too. What does a mathematician do? You know, the simplest and most visible part of the job is we prove theorems. And, you know, theorems about conjectures that were open for hundreds of years, like Fermat’s Last Theorem, these are very visible things that we’ve spent a lot of time popularizing.
And when we lived in New York, we really enjoyed talking to our doorman. You know, they were wonderful people, but, you know, if you digest it down to just that simple job, you can think, “Oh, I can replace them just by a sliding door that detects when people are going or coming,” and you miss out on all the aspects of their job that, you know, add a lot of value and are harder to articulate. And I think that’s a good way to think about mathematics in the age of AI too. What does a mathematician do? You know, the simplest and most visible part of the job is we prove theorems. And, you know, theorems about conjectures that were open for hundreds of years, like Fermat’s Last Theorem, these are very visible things that we’ve spent a lot of time popularizing.
Ankur Moitra
But I don’t think that that’s all that a mathematician does. I like to think about it as a mathematician is someone who thinks deeply, and a byproduct of thinking deeply is, you know, proving old conjectures, but it’s also building new theories, building new ways of looking at old things, making new conceptual connections. And these are parts that you know, maybe AI will swallow up too, but we’re not there yet at this moment. So even though this is a momentous time, I don’t think it’s the right time to hit the panic button.
But I don’t think that that’s all that a mathematician does. I like to think about it as a mathematician is someone who thinks deeply, and a byproduct of thinking deeply is, you know, proving old conjectures, but it’s also building new theories, building new ways of looking at old things, making new conceptual connections. And these are parts that you know, maybe AI will swallow up too, but we’re not there yet at this moment. So even though this is a momentous time, I don’t think it’s the right time to hit the panic button.
Ankur Moitra
I think it’s the right time to really recenter in terms of what our values are and have these conversations as a field, and remember that what we do really has a plurality of different aesthetics and goals, and that when one thing becomes cheap, like problem-solving for well-defined things, it makes the other things that are orthogonal to it all that much more valuable.
I think it’s the right time to really recenter in terms of what our values are and have these conversations as a field, and remember that what we do really has a plurality of different aesthetics and goals, and that when one thing becomes cheap, like problem-solving for well-defined things, it makes the other things that are orthogonal to it all that much more valuable.
Lex Fridman
That’s actually really beautiful. The doorman fallacy, going to Perplexity here, is the mistake of reducing a person’s job to its most obvious task and assuming that automating that task replaces the value of the whole role. A hotel decides, quote, “We’re paying someone to open a door. An automatic door can do that more cheaply.” But in fact, the doorman also welcomes guests and recognizes returning customers, handles luggage and hails taxis, provides security and discourages unwanted visitors, and signals prestige and makes guests feel cared for.
That’s actually really beautiful. The doorman fallacy, going to Perplexity here, is the mistake of reducing a person’s job to its most obvious task and assuming that automating that task replaces the value of the whole role. A hotel decides, quote, “We’re paying someone to open a door. An automatic door can do that more cheaply.” But in fact, the doorman also welcomes guests and recognizes returning customers, handles luggage and hails taxis, provides security and discourages unwanted visitors, and signals prestige and makes guests feel cared for.
Ankur Moitra
That was my favorite part. I looked up what a doorman does, and boy, we have a lot of commonalities with mathematicians. If I don’t signal brand value, I don’t know what I’m doing.
That was my favorite part. I looked up what a doorman does, and boy, we have a lot of commonalities with mathematicians. If I don’t signal brand value, I don’t know what I’m doing.
Lex Fridman
Exactly. That’s funny. But I think the task for us humans in general, but also mathematicians, is to come up with that list, like actually make more explicit exactly what it is that humans do. And I haven’t heard any of you mention beauty. I apologize if I’ve mentioned beauty excessively already. But there’s something that mathematicians are, from my outsider sort of fan perspective, are kinda expositors, scholars of things beautiful, broadly defined.
Exactly. That’s funny. But I think the task for us humans in general, but also mathematicians, is to come up with that list, like actually make more explicit exactly what it is that humans do. And I haven’t heard any of you mention beauty. I apologize if I’ve mentioned beauty excessively already. But there’s something that mathematicians are, from my outsider sort of fan perspective, are kinda expositors, scholars of things beautiful, broadly defined.
Alex Kontorovich
That’s exactly right is until five seconds ago, there was a near perfect correlation between the ability to solve new deep theorems and what we actually want as human mathematicians. And what we want is exactly what you said, beauty and understanding and depth of thought, and the fact that you can press a button and get what used to be our proxy without any effort, without any deep thought, and without any necessarily knowledge. Like we have people saying, you know, “Do a breakthrough,” and then putting whatever they find on Twitter and now, you know, what are mathematicians supposed to do with that?
That’s exactly right is until five seconds ago, there was a near perfect correlation between the ability to solve new deep theorems and what we actually want as human mathematicians. And what we want is exactly what you said, beauty and understanding and depth of thought, and the fact that you can press a button and get what used to be our proxy without any effort, without any deep thought, and without any necessarily knowledge. Like we have people saying, you know, “Do a breakthrough,” and then putting whatever they find on Twitter and now, you know, what are mathematicians supposed to do with that?
Steven Brunton
I would go one step behind answering questions and doing problem-solving is asking the right questions. So like that is how I think you measure good problem-solving is asking the right sub-questions, asking, you know, a question that is interesting and can be solved and can be interpreted. And so I feel like the value of asking good questions is– has always been something we value in our colleagues, and that’s gonna become increasingly more valuable.
I would go one step behind answering questions and doing problem-solving is asking the right questions. So like that is how I think you measure good problem-solving is asking the right sub-questions, asking, you know, a question that is interesting and can be solved and can be interpreted. And so I feel like the value of asking good questions is– has always been something we value in our colleagues, and that’s gonna become increasingly more valuable.
Ankur Moitra
I agree completely, and just to, you know, emphasize a point that was sort of hidden in there, I think asking the right questions requires a lot of mathematical insight.
I agree completely, and just to, you know, emphasize a point that was sort of hidden in there, I think asking the right questions requires a lot of mathematical insight.
Alex Kontorovich
Mm-hmm. Absolutely.
Mm-hmm. Absolutely.
Ankur Moitra
So, you know, you’ll see people make that comment all the time, you know, “What are we gonna value going forward? It’s asking the right question. It’s giving great talks.” But, you know, I wouldn’t minimize, not that you were, but just to be explicit, I would not minimize the role in mathematical insight in both of those tasks, because it’s when we say that, you know, talks will become more important, I’m not imagining that, you know, we’re all gonna become Twitter influencers- and TikTok whatevers.
So, you know, you’ll see people make that comment all the time, you know, “What are we gonna value going forward? It’s asking the right question. It’s giving great talks.” But, you know, I wouldn’t minimize, not that you were, but just to be explicit, I would not minimize the role in mathematical insight in both of those tasks, because it’s when we say that, you know, talks will become more important, I’m not imagining that, you know, we’re all gonna become Twitter influencers- and TikTok whatevers.
Alex Kontorovich
I hope not.
I hope not.
Ankur Moitra
I hope not. Because, you know, really what stands out is having ideas that get adopted by your community that end up becoming powerful over time. So, you know, I wanna tie this back to something that Lex brought up earlier on, which is, you know, he asked, am I being overly optimistic? Probably, right, compared to you know, how grad students view these things. But I think one of the things that I’m most worried about in the near term is what’s gonna happen to our systems and institutions. You know, it’s not just hiring and tenure and all these things, but it’s really that when a grad student starts off their PhD, you know, they’re a new entrant to the field.
I hope not. Because, you know, really what stands out is having ideas that get adopted by your community that end up becoming powerful over time. So, you know, I wanna tie this back to something that Lex brought up earlier on, which is, you know, he asked, am I being overly optimistic? Probably, right, compared to you know, how grad students view these things. But I think one of the things that I’m most worried about in the near term is what’s gonna happen to our systems and institutions. You know, it’s not just hiring and tenure and all these things, but it’s really that when a grad student starts off their PhD, you know, they’re a new entrant to the field.
Ankur Moitra
They’re trying to absorb what are the techniques in their field, what are the important problems, and they’re trying to figure out how to make a name for themselves. And what we used to do is we would give them a blueprint that was very simple to follow. Take a problem people care about and improve it, and then people will know who you are. You know, you’ll get papers in top venues. You know, doors will open for you. But now I think that blueprint has changed in a lot of ways because there are so many results that are happening right now that we’re all just overloaded with it, and I think it’s okay to take time to rethink that blueprint.
They’re trying to absorb what are the techniques in their field, what are the important problems, and they’re trying to figure out how to make a name for themselves. And what we used to do is we would give them a blueprint that was very simple to follow. Take a problem people care about and improve it, and then people will know who you are. You know, you’ll get papers in top venues. You know, doors will open for you. But now I think that blueprint has changed in a lot of ways because there are so many results that are happening right now that we’re all just overloaded with it, and I think it’s okay to take time to rethink that blueprint.
Ankur Moitra
We still care about the same things, like ideas that are gonna influence your community, but they’re just harder to operationalize in terms of some simple rubric that we can give them. So I’m still optimistic. I just think it’s gonna take, you know, reworking a lot of our systems and institutions to do that.
We still care about the same things, like ideas that are gonna influence your community, but they’re just harder to operationalize in terms of some simple rubric that we can give them. So I’m still optimistic. I just think it’s gonna take, you know, reworking a lot of our systems and institutions to do that.
Can AI create new math?
Alex Kontorovich
By the way, and so to, sorry, to go back to your point, I don’t actually believe the solved axiom. I don’t think we’re there. I can prove a theorem, but I don’t understand why the proof works. There’s some magic that happens over here, and until I generalize somehow the phenomenon and understand it more deeply, then I’ll see why the proof works the way it does. Maybe that’s one of the reasons why I don’t actually believe the solved axiom, because the things that we do are much more exploratory and what constitutes a good question beyond just, “Here’s the Riemann hypothesis, make some progress on it.”
By the way, and so to, sorry, to go back to your point, I don’t actually believe the solved axiom. I don’t think we’re there. I can prove a theorem, but I don’t understand why the proof works. There’s some magic that happens over here, and until I generalize somehow the phenomenon and understand it more deeply, then I’ll see why the proof works the way it does. Maybe that’s one of the reasons why I don’t actually believe the solved axiom, because the things that we do are much more exploratory and what constitutes a good question beyond just, “Here’s the Riemann hypothesis, make some progress on it.”
Steven Brunton
So I think you also brought up a really important point, this, like, generality and generalization of our concepts. So related to beauty and mathematics, I think one of the gold standards has always been how simple can your result be and how much does it generalize. And, you know, out of this infinite space of theorems that could be proven, finding some structure that is simple and generalizes, like, that is, I think, still the gold standard. And unless I’m mistaken, humans are still asking the questions. So, like, we, you know, we prove existence uniqueness of Navier-Stokes with AI, but humans are guiding this. Humans are still asking the questions. And, like, I would love to see the next breakthrough if you had a machine that can prove any theorem you pose.
So I think you also brought up a really important point, this, like, generality and generalization of our concepts. So related to beauty and mathematics, I think one of the gold standards has always been how simple can your result be and how much does it generalize. And, you know, out of this infinite space of theorems that could be proven, finding some structure that is simple and generalizes, like, that is, I think, still the gold standard. And unless I’m mistaken, humans are still asking the questions. So, like, we, you know, we prove existence uniqueness of Navier-Stokes with AI, but humans are guiding this. Humans are still asking the questions. And, like, I would love to see the next breakthrough if you had a machine that can prove any theorem you pose.
Steven Brunton
I want it to start telling me what questions I should be asking.
I want it to start telling me what questions I should be asking.
Alex Kontorovich
Do you think it’s possible that that machine just does a for loop- … and finds all the simple and generalizable, basically all the E equals mc squared?
Do you think it’s possible that that machine just does a for loop- … and finds all the simple and generalizable, basically all the E equals mc squared?
Steven Brunton
That’s happening today, actually. So, like, there are absolutely research programs that are systematically, automatically discovering kind of minimal physical laws. So this is less mathematical theorems, more physics governing laws and equations.
That’s happening today, actually. So, like, there are absolutely research programs that are systematically, automatically discovering kind of minimal physical laws. So this is less mathematical theorems, more physics governing laws and equations.
Alex Kontorovich
So observing natural systems and trying to see in those natural systems- … if there’s simple physical laws that model how they operate.
So observing natural systems and trying to see in those natural systems- … if there’s simple physical laws that model how they operate.
Steven Brunton
Yeah, distilling it down to, like, the basics. So you can kind of recapitulate known theories. If you observe balls dropping, you can, you know, deduce gravity and F equals MA. If you observe fluids, you can deduce Navier-Stokes. And then taking that to data, we haven’t written down simple equations, weather, turbulence, solar flares, things like that. And I’m assuming similar things are happening in math where, you know, there are probably these, like, minimal pieces that can be deduced.
Yeah, distilling it down to, like, the basics. So you can kind of recapitulate known theories. If you observe balls dropping, you can, you know, deduce gravity and F equals MA. If you observe fluids, you can deduce Navier-Stokes. And then taking that to data, we haven’t written down simple equations, weather, turbulence, solar flares, things like that. And I’m assuming similar things are happening in math where, you know, there are probably these, like, minimal pieces that can be deduced.
Alex Kontorovich
Do you think there’s a large space of simple and generalizable things in math that could be discovered automatically?
Do you think there’s a large space of simple and generalizable things in math that could be discovered automatically?
Steven Brunton
So my version of the solved axiom is that anything that I do as a human mathematician, I’ve tried on several occasions to sit down and say, “Okay, you know, LLMs will never do this that I do.” And I’m like, “Well, why not? I can ask a question. It can– You know, I can ask it a question.” I can ask it, “What questions should I ask?”
So my version of the solved axiom is that anything that I do as a human mathematician, I’ve tried on several occasions to sit down and say, “Okay, you know, LLMs will never do this that I do.” And I’m like, “Well, why not? I can ask a question. It can– You know, I can ask it a question.” I can ask it, “What questions should I ask?”
Steven Brunton
Right? There’s sort of it– Because it’s such a generalized system, I’m not saying that it’s good at all of those things now. I– But my version of the solved axiom is anything that I can contribute as a human being, it could also have contributed on its own. And so what I really mean by that is in terms of value, what do I bring to the community? It can’t be I asked a great question. It can’t necessarily be in this world of the solved axiom, which again, I don’t believe. But even in that world, it should be something other than I asked a great question, I proved a great theorem. And even in that world, I think you need mathematicians, people with human mathematical expertise.
Right? There’s sort of it– Because it’s such a generalized system, I’m not saying that it’s good at all of those things now. I– But my version of the solved axiom is anything that I can contribute as a human being, it could also have contributed on its own. And so what I really mean by that is in terms of value, what do I bring to the community? It can’t be I asked a great question. It can’t necessarily be in this world of the solved axiom, which again, I don’t believe. But even in that world, it should be something other than I asked a great question, I proved a great theorem. And even in that world, I think you need mathematicians, people with human mathematical expertise.
Alex Kontorovich
Ankur, do you believe in the solved axiom? Where on the spectrum of, like, how close we can get to it, and in that spectrum, what’s the role of the human, do you think?
Ankur, do you believe in the solved axiom? Where on the spectrum of, like, how close we can get to it, and in that spectrum, what’s the role of the human, do you think?
Ankur Moitra
I guess I don’t really believe in the solved axiom. I think- You know, maybe it’s half true in some ways, and figuring out which half of it is true will be very interesting and challenging. So I think there’ll be major surprises and more to come in terms of what AI can solve. But, you know, for me, when you’re facing a new technology that’s really, really good, the danger is that when you try to conceptualize why it’s working, you do so by anthropomorphizing it. So, you know, maybe one of the earlier lessons here is from deep learning. So there are these amazing examples. You know, you can take neural nets, and you can do human-level or better object recognition.
I guess I don’t really believe in the solved axiom. I think- You know, maybe it’s half true in some ways, and figuring out which half of it is true will be very interesting and challenging. So I think there’ll be major surprises and more to come in terms of what AI can solve. But, you know, for me, when you’re facing a new technology that’s really, really good, the danger is that when you try to conceptualize why it’s working, you do so by anthropomorphizing it. So, you know, maybe one of the earlier lessons here is from deep learning. So there are these amazing examples. You know, you can take neural nets, and you can do human-level or better object recognition.
Ankur Moitra
But in general, the way that it succeeds is less robust than how a human does because there are all these examples like adversarial examples, where you can add very slight patterns to natural images that can completely fool these object detection systems, but not a human. And, you know, I had a former colleague at MIT, Alex Madry, that had some really nice work, which I really enjoyed. It was, um– I think the title was something like Adversarial Examples Are Features, Not Bugs. So they did the following cool experiment. So you take a bunch of natural data, maybe pictures of cats and dogs. You train a deep network to identify them very well. You add some adversarial perturbations to them that, you know, make to the AI system a cat look like a dog and vice versa.
But in general, the way that it succeeds is less robust than how a human does because there are all these examples like adversarial examples, where you can add very slight patterns to natural images that can completely fool these object detection systems, but not a human. And, you know, I had a former colleague at MIT, Alex Madry, that had some really nice work, which I really enjoyed. It was, um– I think the title was something like Adversarial Examples Are Features, Not Bugs. So they did the following cool experiment. So you take a bunch of natural data, maybe pictures of cats and dogs. You train a deep network to identify them very well. You add some adversarial perturbations to them that, you know, make to the AI system a cat look like a dog and vice versa.
Ankur Moitra
So it’s kind of think like a small little pattern that changes how the object detector works. And then you create a totally fake data set. You know, it’s got pictures of cats with dog patterns on top, and you label it as dog, and vice versa for cats. And amazingly, when you train a deep network on this with all the wrong labels, it’s gonna learn something that does well on natural data. So somehow, when we recognize what a cat and dog is, we do it, you know, in a way that we can articulate in terms of you know, its legs and its tail and its shape in general.
So it’s kind of think like a small little pattern that changes how the object detector works. And then you create a totally fake data set. You know, it’s got pictures of cats with dog patterns on top, and you label it as dog, and vice versa for cats. And amazingly, when you train a deep network on this with all the wrong labels, it’s gonna learn something that does well on natural data. So somehow, when we recognize what a cat and dog is, we do it, you know, in a way that we can articulate in terms of you know, its legs and its tail and its shape in general.
Ankur Moitra
But a lot of times when you know, deep networks or AI can do things that they might be able to find trapdoors or backdoors to solving the problem that use a lot of statistical relationships in the data that a human doesn’t. So to me, you know, it’s important to not, you know, draw this boundary, you know, very sharply between what you can do and what AI can’t do because you’re gonna be wrong. But that doesn’t mean that I don’t believe there will emerge some kind of boundary, if only for the fact that I think we over-anthropomorphize the way that they solve problems. And when I’m looking through the OpenAI solutions, they just don’t look like a human has solved those problems.
But a lot of times when you know, deep networks or AI can do things that they might be able to find trapdoors or backdoors to solving the problem that use a lot of statistical relationships in the data that a human doesn’t. So to me, you know, it’s important to not, you know, draw this boundary, you know, very sharply between what you can do and what AI can’t do because you’re gonna be wrong. But that doesn’t mean that I don’t believe there will emerge some kind of boundary, if only for the fact that I think we over-anthropomorphize the way that they solve problems. And when I’m looking through the OpenAI solutions, they just don’t look like a human has solved those problems.
Ankur Moitra
So to me, there still seems to be a very big qualitative difference, and that’s an opportunity really for collaboration and centaur math more than it is, you know, dread about the AI overlords. But, you know, who knows? Could be wrong next week.
So to me, there still seems to be a very big qualitative difference, and that’s an opportunity really for collaboration and centaur math more than it is, you know, dread about the AI overlords. But, you know, who knows? Could be wrong next week.
Lex Fridman
What’s your intuition about how much of this is AI just tying together a bunch of thousands of disparate papers and pulling at the threads, sorry for bringing back the metaphor, but the threads of the different papers and then just basically articulating the proofs that were already there in the different papers and you’re making minor connections? Or is it actually developing new mathematical ideas? Have you seen glimmers of whatever that genius AlphaZero move in the game of Go?
What’s your intuition about how much of this is AI just tying together a bunch of thousands of disparate papers and pulling at the threads, sorry for bringing back the metaphor, but the threads of the different papers and then just basically articulating the proofs that were already there in the different papers and you’re making minor connections? Or is it actually developing new mathematical ideas? Have you seen glimmers of whatever that genius AlphaZero move in the game of Go?
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah, move thirty-seven.
Yeah, move thirty-seven.
Lex Fridman
Move thirty-seven.
Move thirty-seven.
Alex Kontorovich
So I haven’t read all seven hundred of their papers. The ones that I have looked at, you know, some people speak about this dismissively like, “Oh, it was in the convex hull.” You do the moves that we know as humans, and you just do them really well and do a really good tree search. I wouldn’t call it the convex hull. I think Tim Gowers had a really good way of talking about it instead as the semigroup generated by all of these things. Yes, it’s the same notion of putting together known moves, but the space of known moves, what it can accomplish is sort of much, much bigger than this kind of derogatory convex hull.
So I haven’t read all seven hundred of their papers. The ones that I have looked at, you know, some people speak about this dismissively like, “Oh, it was in the convex hull.” You do the moves that we know as humans, and you just do them really well and do a really good tree search. I wouldn’t call it the convex hull. I think Tim Gowers had a really good way of talking about it instead as the semigroup generated by all of these things. Yes, it’s the same notion of putting together known moves, but the space of known moves, what it can accomplish is sort of much, much bigger than this kind of derogatory convex hull.
Alex Kontorovich
So with– in terms of the quasi-RH the moves that it took are all things that were known to human beings and there’s a very long cascade of them that is kind of shocking when you look at it and say, “Oh my God, that’s so beautiful. How did you think to– How did you…” I’m anthropomorphizing it, of course. “How did you think to do this move after that move and after that move?” And yeah, that does it.
So with– in terms of the quasi-RH the moves that it took are all things that were known to human beings and there’s a very long cascade of them that is kind of shocking when you look at it and say, “Oh my God, that’s so beautiful. How did you think to– How did you…” I’m anthropomorphizing it, of course. “How did you think to do this move after that move and after that move?” And yeah, that does it.
Lex Fridman
Could you articulate to the more general public the intuition, the line between semigroup and convex hull, the derogatory convex hull, and quasi-RH, of course, is the Quasi-Riemann Hypothesis, that one of the big proofs.
Could you articulate to the more general public the intuition, the line between semigroup and convex hull, the derogatory convex hull, and quasi-RH, of course, is the Quasi-Riemann Hypothesis, that one of the big proofs.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah. Let me try to do it like this. You have– think of like a balloon. So the inside of the balloon is its convex hull. And so we have like all of these results that– all these ideas that mathematicians have thought up, and then anything inside of that is some linear combination of it. But it feels compact. It’s like there’s this kind of closed, enclosed area, and within that area, like AI hasn’t really made new progress ’cause it hasn’t moved the balloon out. It hasn’t given us a new idea yet.
Yeah. Let me try to do it like this. You have– think of like a balloon. So the inside of the balloon is its convex hull. And so we have like all of these results that– all these ideas that mathematicians have thought up, and then anything inside of that is some linear combination of it. But it feels compact. It’s like there’s this kind of closed, enclosed area, and within that area, like AI hasn’t really made new progress ’cause it hasn’t moved the balloon out. It hasn’t given us a new idea yet.
Lex Fridman
And it’s derogatory because the intuition there is we could have done it, mathematician could have done it because it’s already quite obvious. It’s already within the space of things that have already been thought about and developed.
And it’s derogatory because the intuition there is we could have done it, mathematician could have done it because it’s already quite obvious. It’s already within the space of things that have already been thought about and developed.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah. So it has read every paper. It’s exactly what Ankur was just saying. It has read every paper. It has internalized all of that. That’s more than any human brain not even could hold, but has time to read and learn and internalize. So in terms of breadth, yes, it beats any human being. And then in terms of depth, you know, has it really generated a genuinely new idea? And you can argue that at least in the case of quasi-RH, I would not say it’s a genuinely new idea. It’s a beautiful combination of a lot of things that were very well known.
Yeah. So it has read every paper. It’s exactly what Ankur was just saying. It has read every paper. It has internalized all of that. That’s more than any human brain not even could hold, but has time to read and learn and internalize. So in terms of breadth, yes, it beats any human being. And then in terms of depth, you know, has it really generated a genuinely new idea? And you can argue that at least in the case of quasi-RH, I would not say it’s a genuinely new idea. It’s a beautiful combination of a lot of things that were very well known.
Alex Kontorovich
There are a lot of people who are kicking themselves that had some idea in that direction twenty years ago, and two years ago, there was a big breakthrough on cubic theta functions and cubic Gauss sums and, you know, that ended up being the path that the AI took to the solution. But so to contrast that with a semigroup, I think of a semigroup as like tiles. So you know, you’re just playing tiles on the board, and what you’re allowed to do is whenever you have a tile, you can put another tile to the left, to the right, to the front or to the back. And then you can just start tiling things. And that’s like a semigroup action. You– and the question is, well, how far can you reach with that? You can go all– I don’t know. You know?
There are a lot of people who are kicking themselves that had some idea in that direction twenty years ago, and two years ago, there was a big breakthrough on cubic theta functions and cubic Gauss sums and, you know, that ended up being the path that the AI took to the solution. But so to contrast that with a semigroup, I think of a semigroup as like tiles. So you know, you’re just playing tiles on the board, and what you’re allowed to do is whenever you have a tile, you can put another tile to the left, to the right, to the front or to the back. And then you can just start tiling things. And that’s like a semigroup action. You– and the question is, well, how far can you reach with that? You can go all– I don’t know. You know?
Alex Kontorovich
You can go really, really far out with existing ideas might prove a whole lot more than we as humans have been able to explore.
You can go really, really far out with existing ideas might prove a whole lot more than we as humans have been able to explore.
Lex Fridman
So your intuition is more in the semigroup direction, meaning like there is at least glimmers of expansion versus linear combinations inside the convex hull.
So your intuition is more in the semigroup direction, meaning like there is at least glimmers of expansion versus linear combinations inside the convex hull.
Alex Kontorovich
You know, how we choose to interpret what it’s doing I think is up to us. But throughout the history of mathematics, there have been very seemingly difficult and deep problems that then someone comes up with a three-page solution that is very elementary and could’ve been explained to an undergrad and could’ve been discovered twenty years before when the problem was first posed. And had it been discovered twenty years before, it would be an exercise in a textbook somewhere. And because that solution wasn’t discovered, and really bright people worked on it for a long time and made incremental progress and made the problem really famous, then by the time it was actually solved, it was a really big deal. That happens from time to time in mathematics.
You know, how we choose to interpret what it’s doing I think is up to us. But throughout the history of mathematics, there have been very seemingly difficult and deep problems that then someone comes up with a three-page solution that is very elementary and could’ve been explained to an undergrad and could’ve been discovered twenty years before when the problem was first posed. And had it been discovered twenty years before, it would be an exercise in a textbook somewhere. And because that solution wasn’t discovered, and really bright people worked on it for a long time and made incremental progress and made the problem really famous, then by the time it was actually solved, it was a really big deal. That happens from time to time in mathematics.
Alex Kontorovich
And what I said a year ago when I wrote– So there was this International Congress of Mathematicians this summer, and I was writing my proceedings that they wanted ten months in advance. So I said, you know, “What am I gonna write about math and AI now that will still be relevant ten months from now?” And I think what’s there is somewhat evergreen. I stand by what I wrote. But one of the things that I wrote there was exactly that we’re going to discover that a whole lot more problems that we thought were unreachable by current technology actually are reachable by current technology if you can put it together in just the right way, and that’s what AI is amazing at.
And what I said a year ago when I wrote– So there was this International Congress of Mathematicians this summer, and I was writing my proceedings that they wanted ten months in advance. So I said, you know, “What am I gonna write about math and AI now that will still be relevant ten months from now?” And I think what’s there is somewhat evergreen. I stand by what I wrote. But one of the things that I wrote there was exactly that we’re going to discover that a whole lot more problems that we thought were unreachable by current technology actually are reachable by current technology if you can put it together in just the right way, and that’s what AI is amazing at.
Alex Kontorovich
Again, someone could interpret that as, “Oh, so it’s inside, you know, these solutions were inside the convex hull.” You wanna call it that, that’s fine. I think that’s, you know– It’s not invalid.
Again, someone could interpret that as, “Oh, so it’s inside, you know, these solutions were inside the convex hull.” You wanna call it that, that’s fine. I think that’s, you know– It’s not invalid.
Ankur Moitra
So I like all these metaphors, you know, also the balloon. So the important thing about the balloon is the boundary between what’s inside and outside, and what makes it derogatory is the fact that, you know, you haven’t seemingly changed the boundary. But I– you know, definitely these problems have changed the boundary. And, you know, maybe a more concrete thing is just that the types of things that people are gonna work on after that drop of OpenAI problems is forever different. You know, there were at least a couple of results there that are like, you know, field-altering results that will change what types of problems you give to young researchers, what areas you want to explore, because your conception of the landscape is just that much different.
So I like all these metaphors, you know, also the balloon. So the important thing about the balloon is the boundary between what’s inside and outside, and what makes it derogatory is the fact that, you know, you haven’t seemingly changed the boundary. But I– you know, definitely these problems have changed the boundary. And, you know, maybe a more concrete thing is just that the types of things that people are gonna work on after that drop of OpenAI problems is forever different. You know, there were at least a couple of results there that are like, you know, field-altering results that will change what types of problems you give to young researchers, what areas you want to explore, because your conception of the landscape is just that much different.
Lex Fridman
So not just the– because it expanded, but because the very expansion changed the direction of the interesting questions.
So not just the– because it expanded, but because the very expansion changed the direction of the interesting questions.
Ankur Moitra
That’s right. So in fact, you know, one of the problems which probably, you know, maybe it’s the easiest to explain what kind of effect it had on people is not actually from the OpenAI drop. It was an Anthropic result that was written up by my colleague Virgi Vassilevska Williams and then Josh Alman. So this was about the 3SUM problem. And I’d say that there it has a major effect on what’s called fine-grained complexity theory because there was a big surprise that, you know, a very basic problem that you give people in, like, coding interviews can actually be solved asymptotically much faster than the solution anyone knew, and that was counter to what the community was betting.
That’s right. So in fact, you know, one of the problems which probably, you know, maybe it’s the easiest to explain what kind of effect it had on people is not actually from the OpenAI drop. It was an Anthropic result that was written up by my colleague Virgi Vassilevska Williams and then Josh Alman. So this was about the 3SUM problem. And I’d say that there it has a major effect on what’s called fine-grained complexity theory because there was a big surprise that, you know, a very basic problem that you give people in, like, coding interviews can actually be solved asymptotically much faster than the solution anyone knew, and that was counter to what the community was betting.
Ankur Moitra
In fact, there was a whole theory built up around the idea that if this problem really is that hard, then all these other problems inherit its hardness. So now, as a result of that problem being easier than we thought, you know, having a bit better of an algorithm, you know, yes, that gives you a lot new algorithms across the entire landscape. But it also changes the character of the field because the goal there was to put all those problems together and said that we should be studying them all together. But now we’re sort of back in the state of affairs where maybe the right way to study them is separately after all.
In fact, there was a whole theory built up around the idea that if this problem really is that hard, then all these other problems inherit its hardness. So now, as a result of that problem being easier than we thought, you know, having a bit better of an algorithm, you know, yes, that gives you a lot new algorithms across the entire landscape. But it also changes the character of the field because the goal there was to put all those problems together and said that we should be studying them all together. But now we’re sort of back in the state of affairs where maybe the right way to study them is separately after all.
Ankur Moitra
So I think these are examples where, you know, irrespective of how much, you know, deep new generalizable ideas we get out there, even just knowing the, you know, truth of the theorem is gonna change the way that people organize research in that area. And, you know, there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle on some of these problems.
So I think these are examples where, you know, irrespective of how much, you know, deep new generalizable ideas we get out there, even just knowing the, you know, truth of the theorem is gonna change the way that people organize research in that area. And, you know, there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle on some of these problems.
Alex Kontorovich
I mean, imagine one of the seven hundred was factoring in polynomial time. That would absolutely change– Everybody would know. Like, you can’t use your credit card on Amazon anymore. All of e-commerce is gone. All of secure communications is gone in– like that.
I mean, imagine one of the seven hundred was factoring in polynomial time. That would absolutely change– Everybody would know. Like, you can’t use your credit card on Amazon anymore. All of e-commerce is gone. All of secure communications is gone in– like that.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain factoring in polynomial time?
Can you explain factoring in polynomial time?
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah. So if you give me two very large numbers, a million digits each, I can multiply them together and do that in a split second. If you ask me to go backwards, say you took two large prime numbers, you multiply them together, you give me this, the product, and you ask me, “Figure out which two numbers…” You know, just factor. Don’t we ask our kids to learn how to factor in school? You know, it’s a lie. We do not know how to factor. And the fact that we don’t know how to factor is why we have the capacity, the ability to communicate with one another in all kinds of secure ways. So all of modern– basically the modern world depends on the fact that we don’t have an algorithm for taking a large number and pulling its prime factors out of it.
Yeah. So if you give me two very large numbers, a million digits each, I can multiply them together and do that in a split second. If you ask me to go backwards, say you took two large prime numbers, you multiply them together, you give me this, the product, and you ask me, “Figure out which two numbers…” You know, just factor. Don’t we ask our kids to learn how to factor in school? You know, it’s a lie. We do not know how to factor. And the fact that we don’t know how to factor is why we have the capacity, the ability to communicate with one another in all kinds of secure ways. So all of modern– basically the modern world depends on the fact that we don’t have an algorithm for taking a large number and pulling its prime factors out of it.
Ankur Moitra
So a lot of e-commerce does because that’s the basis for a lot of the schemes in public key encryption. But, you know, famously, there are quantum algorithms for factoring, so- … there’s a lot of emphasis these days on, you know, finding post-quantum, you know, bases for cryptography too.
So a lot of e-commerce does because that’s the basis for a lot of the schemes in public key encryption. But, you know, famously, there are quantum algorithms for factoring, so- … there’s a lot of emphasis these days on, you know, finding post-quantum, you know, bases for cryptography too.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah, lattice-based methods and- Yeah, we’re already concerned about what will happen when we have quantum computers large enough to, but we still have a little bit of time before quantum computers get large enough to make this an actual problem. But there’s no theoretical reason. I mean, okay, factoring’s probably not NP hard, but you know, I mean, let’s say prove that P doesn’t equal NP. Maybe that doesn’t– That would be amazing, obviously, but that doesn’t If it proves that P equals NP, that would be completely–
Yeah, lattice-based methods and- Yeah, we’re already concerned about what will happen when we have quantum computers large enough to, but we still have a little bit of time before quantum computers get large enough to make this an actual problem. But there’s no theoretical reason. I mean, okay, factoring’s probably not NP hard, but you know, I mean, let’s say prove that P doesn’t equal NP. Maybe that doesn’t– That would be amazing, obviously, but that doesn’t If it proves that P equals NP, that would be completely–
Ankur Moitra
That would be very interesting.
That would be very interesting.
Alex Kontorovich
That would be very interesting.
That would be very interesting.
Ankur Moitra
I’ll definitely ask about more broadly in the context of complexity theory, but presumably OpenAI or any other company would not drop that result carelessly.
I’ll definitely ask about more broadly in the context of complexity theory, but presumably OpenAI or any other company would not drop that result carelessly.
Alex Kontorovich
That’s the kind of thing that should go through, yeah, the government and-
That’s the kind of thing that should go through, yeah, the government and-
Ankur Moitra
Sometimes certain mathematical results quite obviously lead to dramatic impact on the world. Other results might take maybe months to digest, but that one would just, yeah, would affect the economic systems of entire nations, so.
Sometimes certain mathematical results quite obviously lead to dramatic impact on the world. Other results might take maybe months to digest, but that one would just, yeah, would affect the economic systems of entire nations, so.
Steven Brunton
How many mathematicians does the NSA employ?
How many mathematicians does the NSA employ?
Alex Kontorovich
Thousands.
Thousands.
Steven Brunton
Thousands, like something like this. I’ve always done this thought experiment, you know. What might they have that they just wouldn’t tell us about? And this was ten years ago, you know, that some evidence showed that collaborative teams of mathematicians could solve much, much harder problems than any one individual mathematician if they, like, broke it down in the right way. So I don’t know. Do you mind if I just revisit the-
Thousands, like something like this. I’ve always done this thought experiment, you know. What might they have that they just wouldn’t tell us about? And this was ten years ago, you know, that some evidence showed that collaborative teams of mathematicians could solve much, much harder problems than any one individual mathematician if they, like, broke it down in the right way. So I don’t know. Do you mind if I just revisit the-
Steven Brunton
… the balloon for a second? ‘Cause I actually like the semigroup analogy better than the convex hull, but I don’t think it’s as it should be interpreted as derogatory as it is even if it was just that these machines are interpolating human knowledge rather than extrapolating. Because even if there is this convex hull of ideas and things that could be pieced together from bits that humans have invented, we’re not doing that fast enough or, you know, there’s a lot of opaqueness, and it’s– this balloon is not see-through.
… the balloon for a second? ‘Cause I actually like the semigroup analogy better than the convex hull, but I don’t think it’s as it should be interpreted as derogatory as it is even if it was just that these machines are interpolating human knowledge rather than extrapolating. Because even if there is this convex hull of ideas and things that could be pieced together from bits that humans have invented, we’re not doing that fast enough or, you know, there’s a lot of opaqueness, and it’s– this balloon is not see-through.
Steven Brunton
And so even if you can make this convex hull much more transparent, kind of like lift the fog, give mathematicians radar so they can see what’s, you know, over the horizon, that’s pretty incredible, and I don’t think we should be interpreting that as, you know, derogatory at all. I do think it is more extrapolatory than that, though.
And so even if you can make this convex hull much more transparent, kind of like lift the fog, give mathematicians radar so they can see what’s, you know, over the horizon, that’s pretty incredible, and I don’t think we should be interpreting that as, you know, derogatory at all. I do think it is more extrapolatory than that, though.
Ankur Moitra
Yeah, we should say probably the size of the convex hull. We don’t know actually how big it is.
Yeah, we should say probably the size of the convex hull. We don’t know actually how big it is.
Steven Brunton
Well, that’s part of the point. We don’t know how big it is. We don’t know what’s next to each other. Like, there’s so much fog of what we know. Like, and that’s exciting to lift that.
Well, that’s part of the point. We don’t know how big it is. We don’t know what’s next to each other. Like, there’s so much fog of what we know. Like, and that’s exciting to lift that.
Alex Kontorovich
But human beings do make new definitions, you know, bring new concepts in, and that fundamentally feels different from combining existing ideas and, and repackaging them. That, that– When human beings do that, and they do that from time to time- … it really feels like, okay, there’s a new boundary point, and now what’s the convex hull of that, of what you could prove? So it’s like you can take the balloon, and there are ways to pull on it and-
But human beings do make new definitions, you know, bring new concepts in, and that fundamentally feels different from combining existing ideas and, and repackaging them. That, that– When human beings do that, and they do that from time to time- … it really feels like, okay, there’s a new boundary point, and now what’s the convex hull of that, of what you could prove? So it’s like you can take the balloon, and there are ways to pull on it and-
Steven Brunton
And we know when it expands. Like somehow- … we have an intuition for when it’s getting bigger. Like, you can recognize that.
And we know when it expands. Like somehow- … we have an intuition for when it’s getting bigger. Like, you can recognize that.
Ankur Moitra
In many ways, the archetype of what the researcher looks like is gonna change because of this new technology too. You know, I’m always amazed that when you look back historically, how much very different fields of math really spawned from similar ideas. And a lot of those connections drove the development in the beginning, but over time, they become a bit more specialized. And I think certainly the way that we train graduate students, you know, we’ll need to make sure that they’re not just overspecialized in the same way. You know, I don’t know what the future of hiring will look like. I don’t know what the future of journals will look like. But I think people who think broadly about, you know, a bigger swath of mathematics will be in the best position to benefit from these technologies.
In many ways, the archetype of what the researcher looks like is gonna change because of this new technology too. You know, I’m always amazed that when you look back historically, how much very different fields of math really spawned from similar ideas. And a lot of those connections drove the development in the beginning, but over time, they become a bit more specialized. And I think certainly the way that we train graduate students, you know, we’ll need to make sure that they’re not just overspecialized in the same way. You know, I don’t know what the future of hiring will look like. I don’t know what the future of journals will look like. But I think people who think broadly about, you know, a bigger swath of mathematics will be in the best position to benefit from these technologies.
Ankur Moitra
You know, that would be my guess. Can I ask a almost silly-sounding question? But so a large part for many decades of research has been the paper. If you were to guess in, in, in the years to come, how does that change how a human contributes their idea, maybe collaborate, how a team of humans contribute an idea into the public space?
You know, that would be my guess. Can I ask a almost silly-sounding question? But so a large part for many decades of research has been the paper. If you were to guess in, in, in the years to come, how does that change how a human contributes their idea, maybe collaborate, how a team of humans contribute an idea into the public space?
Steven Brunton
So, I mean, I don’t know about in pure math, but in engineering and some of the applied sciences, we already have a pretty rapidly shifting view of what an academic contribution is. So if you write code in part of a larger infrastructure that is reusable, that, you know, supports larger projects, so think of LIGO or some of the big, you know, billion-dollar astronomy projects or, you know, cancer research projects that require hundreds of people and huge resources already, it’s not necessarily one 15-page PDF. You know, there’s lots of different pieces, code, data, reusable bits that can be fit into a larger framework.
So, I mean, I don’t know about in pure math, but in engineering and some of the applied sciences, we already have a pretty rapidly shifting view of what an academic contribution is. So if you write code in part of a larger infrastructure that is reusable, that, you know, supports larger projects, so think of LIGO or some of the big, you know, billion-dollar astronomy projects or, you know, cancer research projects that require hundreds of people and huge resources already, it’s not necessarily one 15-page PDF. You know, there’s lots of different pieces, code, data, reusable bits that can be fit into a larger framework.
Steven Brunton
And in my mind, that is kind of obviously even more relevant with AI, is having, you know, a little workable piece or widget or API or code base or data set that can be leveraged by the community or by AI is increasingly valuable even more than just, like, one result or one paper. And I don’t know how that looks in pure math.
And in my mind, that is kind of obviously even more relevant with AI, is having, you know, a little workable piece or widget or API or code base or data set that can be leveraged by the community or by AI is increasingly valuable even more than just, like, one result or one paper. And I don’t know how that looks in pure math.
Ankur Moitra
Can you comment on your view how everything’s changing? Even just observing the insane evolution of even arXiv, which is similar in some ways to what’s happening on GitHub, for example. A lot of people in the open source movement are really struggling to know what to do. Some are predicting the death of GitHub.
Can you comment on your view how everything’s changing? Even just observing the insane evolution of even arXiv, which is similar in some ways to what’s happening on GitHub, for example. A lot of people in the open source movement are really struggling to know what to do. Some are predicting the death of GitHub.
Alex Kontorovich
Why? Just ’cause there’s so much code being added to GitHub- … that it can’t sustain the growth?
Why? Just ’cause there’s so much code being added to GitHub- … that it can’t sustain the growth?
Ankur Moitra
So one of the things that makes the open source movement successful is there’s a kinda one or a few folks that really manage each repository, the human beings, and they are-
So one of the things that makes the open source movement successful is there’s a kinda one or a few folks that really manage each repository, the human beings, and they are-
Lex Fridman
psychologically and on many levels are becoming overwhelmed by the, all the pull requests. So it, it becomes impossible to manage and they get exhausted and there’s this whole feeling. The open source movement, maybe similar to the academic environment, requires the humans to be motivated. And if you get worn out by the just similar the, the ideas that Terry Tao mentioned, that you just quit. And so that’s a failure mode that you want to kind of avoid.
psychologically and on many levels are becoming overwhelmed by the, all the pull requests. So it, it becomes impossible to manage and they get exhausted and there’s this whole feeling. The open source movement, maybe similar to the academic environment, requires the humans to be motivated. And if you get worn out by the just similar the, the ideas that Terry Tao mentioned, that you just quit. And so that’s a failure mode that you want to kind of avoid.
Alex Kontorovich
So journals were already in math under very, very severe strain from the number of things before AI, having nothing to do with AI, just there was, you know, more people producing more knowledge, sending it to journals, and journals had to referee it, and referees are exhausted and being asked to work really hard to understand these theorems and check them. The only thing worse than that system, I think, is not having that system.
So journals were already in math under very, very severe strain from the number of things before AI, having nothing to do with AI, just there was, you know, more people producing more knowledge, sending it to journals, and journals had to referee it, and referees are exhausted and being asked to work really hard to understand these theorems and check them. The only thing worse than that system, I think, is not having that system.
Alex Kontorovich
Because the way that, like, our mathematical epistemology, the way that we arrive at truth, is deliberately slow and careful and precise. Go back to Perelman’s solution of the Poincaré conjecture. He puts these papers on the arXiv, and then people around the world are, you know, shocked by this, and so they invite him to come give lectures. He comes to Stony Brook, he comes to NYU, he comes to Princeton.
Because the way that, like, our mathematical epistemology, the way that we arrive at truth, is deliberately slow and careful and precise. Go back to Perelman’s solution of the Poincaré conjecture. He puts these papers on the arXiv, and then people around the world are, you know, shocked by this, and so they invite him to come give lectures. He comes to Stony Brook, he comes to NYU, he comes to Princeton.
Alex Kontorovich
He’s going all around the country and the world, and he’s giving three-hour long impromptu explanations of, of, you know, maybe an hour is him explaining what he’s doing, and the next two hours are people saying, “On page two hundred and forty-seven, Lemma four hundred and twelve, I don’t understand how you do this.” And then he goes to the board and gives them a half-hour lecture on how he does that. So the entire thing lives in his mind. He’s done the best he can to communicate it on paper, and then it’s up to us, the community, to go back through it very carefully, in a detailed and precise way and agree, yes, this is a real proof of the Poincaré conjecture. And that took years to do and a whole lot of human effort.
He’s going all around the country and the world, and he’s giving three-hour long impromptu explanations of, of, you know, maybe an hour is him explaining what he’s doing, and the next two hours are people saying, “On page two hundred and forty-seven, Lemma four hundred and twelve, I don’t understand how you do this.” And then he goes to the board and gives them a half-hour lecture on how he does that. So the entire thing lives in his mind. He’s done the best he can to communicate it on paper, and then it’s up to us, the community, to go back through it very carefully, in a detailed and precise way and agree, yes, this is a real proof of the Poincaré conjecture. And that took years to do and a whole lot of human effort.
Alex Kontorovich
So coming up with a solution is only the first step in the process, and that process has to be deliberate, and it has to be community-driven. And so that’s what the journal system is trying to accomplish.
So coming up with a solution is only the first step in the process, and that process has to be deliberate, and it has to be community-driven. And so that’s what the journal system is trying to accomplish.
Steven Brunton
So you make a really interesting point and it kinda highlights this traditional view of a pure mathematician as this, like, lone genius who you know, solves this singular problem and then goes explaining it to the world. In many other fields, we have moved past the point where we can’t individually advance, you know, circuit design or aircraft design or protein folding or any, you know, astronomy, and we have to work together in these billion-dollar collaborative projects. And again, I’m an engineer, so I’m thinking leadership is obviously the thing that a community needs when it’s having this kind of crisis of organization and individuality moving towards a more collective model.
So you make a really interesting point and it kinda highlights this traditional view of a pure mathematician as this, like, lone genius who you know, solves this singular problem and then goes explaining it to the world. In many other fields, we have moved past the point where we can’t individually advance, you know, circuit design or aircraft design or protein folding or any, you know, astronomy, and we have to work together in these billion-dollar collaborative projects. And again, I’m an engineer, so I’m thinking leadership is obviously the thing that a community needs when it’s having this kind of crisis of organization and individuality moving towards a more collective model.
Steven Brunton
And that’s interesting because I know so many mathematicians, and, like, by kind of organization, this is a very independent group of people who don’t like being told what to do, who don’t like being told what to study, who are very independent by their very nature. You know, we like solitude and working alone. That’s why we, you know, spend so much time doing it.
And that’s interesting because I know so many mathematicians, and, like, by kind of organization, this is a very independent group of people who don’t like being told what to do, who don’t like being told what to study, who are very independent by their very nature. You know, we like solitude and working alone. That’s why we, you know, spend so much time doing it.
Ankur Moitra
I think that’s a really good point. I mean, it’s interesting just to see the differences in working styles, even between math and physics, you know, with things-
I think that’s a really good point. I mean, it’s interesting just to see the differences in working styles, even between math and physics, you know, with things-
Ankur Moitra
… like the Large Hadron Collider. So I mean, let me take a contrarian view for these things, which is you know, you should never let a good crisis go to waste. I agree the journals were overloaded, the conferences were overloaded. It always strikes me that we’re doing so much work, you know, to review these things, to handle all these things, and now we’re faced with the task that someone’s gotta review all these AI-generated papers. And some of them are important, but, you know, it’s really hard to get your community on board with doing that. I would really– You know, I don’t know what’s gonna happen, but I would really be in favor for finding new models, not to replace the old ones, but to relieve some of the pressures that have come about.
… like the Large Hadron Collider. So I mean, let me take a contrarian view for these things, which is you know, you should never let a good crisis go to waste. I agree the journals were overloaded, the conferences were overloaded. It always strikes me that we’re doing so much work, you know, to review these things, to handle all these things, and now we’re faced with the task that someone’s gotta review all these AI-generated papers. And some of them are important, but, you know, it’s really hard to get your community on board with doing that. I would really– You know, I don’t know what’s gonna happen, but I would really be in favor for finding new models, not to replace the old ones, but to relieve some of the pressures that have come about.
Ankur Moitra
So, you know, I’d love to see models where, you know, maybe we take a more collaborative effort to verifying some of these AI proofs, right? So some of the OpenAI results that have dropped, you know, improvements on Fast Fourier Transform. You know, there’s been tweet streams with people improving the constant. I don’t really know what to make of that. You know, I’m not even on Twitter. You know, and it seems to me that we need to figure out other modes of working, you know, for organizing what are the state of all the improvements, but also how do we organize and tame these ideas?
So, you know, I’d love to see models where, you know, maybe we take a more collaborative effort to verifying some of these AI proofs, right? So some of the OpenAI results that have dropped, you know, improvements on Fast Fourier Transform. You know, there’s been tweet streams with people improving the constant. I don’t really know what to make of that. You know, I’m not even on Twitter. You know, and it seems to me that we need to figure out other modes of working, you know, for organizing what are the state of all the improvements, but also how do we organize and tame these ideas?
Ankur Moitra
So it’s kind of striking that, you know, the way that we think about publications is you work hard on your draft, you post it on arXiv, and that’s your draft. You know, you might update and create a new version at some point or a third version, but the draft belongs to you. It’s not really up to the community to add notes. “Hey, I think you can do this argument differently. Hey, I think this is simplified this way.” But maybe there are some kinds of things that we need other models for, you know, allowing crowdsourcing for our understanding to evolve. I’d be all for that. You know, the other thing is I love giving research talks.
So it’s kind of striking that, you know, the way that we think about publications is you work hard on your draft, you post it on arXiv, and that’s your draft. You know, you might update and create a new version at some point or a third version, but the draft belongs to you. It’s not really up to the community to add notes. “Hey, I think you can do this argument differently. Hey, I think this is simplified this way.” But maybe there are some kinds of things that we need other models for, you know, allowing crowdsourcing for our understanding to evolve. I’d be all for that. You know, the other thing is I love giving research talks.
Ankur Moitra
You know, one of my favorite parts about giving research talks is you can take all of the messy complexities of the paper, the things where you just knew you had to dot the I’s and cross the T’s, but that wasn’t really what excited you. There was some key idea, and there was some special case that really illustrated why that idea was powerful.
You know, one of my favorite parts about giving research talks is you can take all of the messy complexities of the paper, the things where you just knew you had to dot the I’s and cross the T’s, but that wasn’t really what excited you. There was some key idea, and there was some special case that really illustrated why that idea was powerful.
Ankur Moitra
And that’s the part you really want to explain to people, because when asked, someone asks me about Lemma 57, I don’t even remember it, right? And maybe, you know, this idea that a paper is just this monolithic thing designed to be, you know, written down and completely formalized. Well, now we can trust Lean formalizations to some extent for some of the technical building blocks, and that can allow us to rework the way that we do the writing in the first place, so we can put more of the emphasis on the work on, you know, the promulgation of those ideas.
And that’s the part you really want to explain to people, because when asked, someone asks me about Lemma 57, I don’t even remember it, right? And maybe, you know, this idea that a paper is just this monolithic thing designed to be, you know, written down and completely formalized. Well, now we can trust Lean formalizations to some extent for some of the technical building blocks, and that can allow us to rework the way that we do the writing in the first place, so we can put more of the emphasis on the work on, you know, the promulgation of those ideas.
Alex Kontorovich
The Mathlib model is exactly what you were describing, where instead of a paper, you have a PR, you have a pull request. The maintainers and the reviewers will go through the pull request. They’ll make suggestions here and there. I mean, the referees make suggestions, you can improve this and that, but it’s not a public process in a journal. In a GitHub open workplace, you can see exactly who contributed what idea that simplified an argument or you’re, you know, you’re reusing this… You’re reinventing this idea that already exists in this part of the library. You should just quote that and refactor this part, whatever. So and Mathlib working formally allows one for the first time.
The Mathlib model is exactly what you were describing, where instead of a paper, you have a PR, you have a pull request. The maintainers and the reviewers will go through the pull request. They’ll make suggestions here and there. I mean, the referees make suggestions, you can improve this and that, but it’s not a public process in a journal. In a GitHub open workplace, you can see exactly who contributed what idea that simplified an argument or you’re, you know, you’re reusing this… You’re reinventing this idea that already exists in this part of the library. You should just quote that and refactor this part, whatever. So and Mathlib working formally allows one for the first time.
Alex Kontorovich
Like, one of the problems with mathematics is that we don’t have a, a perfectly well-written specification to our theorems, our technical lemmas. There’s– If you open up a random page in a random math book and read a lemma, there’s so much context- … that the author– ’cause it’s so annoying to write something that fills in every bit of context. So we just assume you’ve read the previous sixty pages. Now I can just tell you what the next step is in that lemma. But then when you try to– That means you can’t just take it off the shelf the way you can a part, a physical part when you’re building a rocket.
Like, one of the problems with mathematics is that we don’t have a, a perfectly well-written specification to our theorems, our technical lemmas. There’s– If you open up a random page in a random math book and read a lemma, there’s so much context- … that the author– ’cause it’s so annoying to write something that fills in every bit of context. So we just assume you’ve read the previous sixty pages. Now I can just tell you what the next step is in that lemma. But then when you try to– That means you can’t just take it off the shelf the way you can a part, a physical part when you’re building a rocket.
Alex Kontorovich
And so if all of mathematics is done in the future formally, then the specifications are built into the object. You know you’re not using it in the wrong way, ’cause you can’t use it in the wrong way ’cause Lean won’t let you, and that is the sort of crowdsourced version of mathematics. And that was the dream of Mathlib- … when it was started ten years ago, was to run mathematics more like a science.
And so if all of mathematics is done in the future formally, then the specifications are built into the object. You know you’re not using it in the wrong way, ’cause you can’t use it in the wrong way ’cause Lean won’t let you, and that is the sort of crowdsourced version of mathematics. And that was the dream of Mathlib- … when it was started ten years ago, was to run mathematics more like a science.
Ankur Moitra
As a quick aside, can you mention what Mathlib is and Lean, just ’cause we mentioned it a few times for folks?
As a quick aside, can you mention what Mathlib is and Lean, just ’cause we mentioned it a few times for folks?
Alex Kontorovich
Sure. So mathematics is, in the ideal, a formal process starting with an axiomatized system and then logical rules of inference from there. So if people think of I don’t know, do people still learn Euclid’s geometry in high school or something? That’s supposed to be the kind of model for kids to start seeing proofs for the first time and seeing an axiomatic structure.
Sure. So mathematics is, in the ideal, a formal process starting with an axiomatized system and then logical rules of inference from there. So if people think of I don’t know, do people still learn Euclid’s geometry in high school or something? That’s supposed to be the kind of model for kids to start seeing proofs for the first time and seeing an axiomatic structure.
Alex Kontorovich
And you can take that idea and write it in software and say, “Here are the actual axioms of mathematics. Here are the rules of logical inference.” And Lean, there’s a long history of this kind of software. It’s called interactive theorem provers, where you’re writing line by line in a proof, and the computer says, “Yes, this line does follow by logical inference from the goal state on the previous line.” So Lean is software that allows you to check all kinds of things. It can check the specifications of your code align with what you are trying to define. That’s what it was invented for was bug-free code.
And you can take that idea and write it in software and say, “Here are the actual axioms of mathematics. Here are the rules of logical inference.” And Lean, there’s a long history of this kind of software. It’s called interactive theorem provers, where you’re writing line by line in a proof, and the computer says, “Yes, this line does follow by logical inference from the goal state on the previous line.” So Lean is software that allows you to check all kinds of things. It can check the specifications of your code align with what you are trying to define. That’s what it was invented for was bug-free code.
Alex Kontorovich
And hopefully, in the future, we will have bug-free code because AI systems are really good at finding bugs in code written by humans, so that’s– it’s becoming ever more important for that application. But another application is to check mathematical results-
And hopefully, in the future, we will have bug-free code because AI systems are really good at finding bugs in code written by humans, so that’s– it’s becoming ever more important for that application. But another application is to check mathematical results-
Alex Kontorovich
… and allow you to write a mathematical result in a very formal way. And so now Lean itself is just the hardware that checks the logical steps. You do not want to start every math project by defining what the natural numbers are, using zero and the successor, you know, the Peano axioms of the natural numbers. So it’s nice to have a large general library that’s extremely well maintained, extremely well organized, and so on. And that’s what Mathlib is. Mathlib is the Lean library for formalizing mathematics in the Lean ecosystem. And again, Lean is just one interactive theorem prover. There are lots of others. It’s the one that so far has been winning the math wars, if there are any math wars. It’s a competition of two people or something.
… and allow you to write a mathematical result in a very formal way. And so now Lean itself is just the hardware that checks the logical steps. You do not want to start every math project by defining what the natural numbers are, using zero and the successor, you know, the Peano axioms of the natural numbers. So it’s nice to have a large general library that’s extremely well maintained, extremely well organized, and so on. And that’s what Mathlib is. Mathlib is the Lean library for formalizing mathematics in the Lean ecosystem. And again, Lean is just one interactive theorem prover. There are lots of others. It’s the one that so far has been winning the math wars, if there are any math wars. It’s a competition of two people or something.
Ankur Moitra
And it’s the technology used in part to show that the OpenAI release of all the different proofs, that the proofs are correct.
And it’s the technology used in part to show that the OpenAI release of all the different proofs, that the proofs are correct.
Alex Kontorovich
That’s right. It has become now standard to because autoformalization has gotten to the point where AI systems can not only prove a theorem in natural language. You can’t trust their natural language proofs. These are stochastic processes. And so the fact that they’re saying things doesn’t mean that they necessarily have a model of mathematics in their heads, whatever that means, the same way that we do. But that’s okay ’cause they’ll write a Lean code that builds on top of Mathlib, builds on top of the Prime Number Theorem Pro– Plus project or whatever, and checks that it has indeed solved this problem down to the axioms.
That’s right. It has become now standard to because autoformalization has gotten to the point where AI systems can not only prove a theorem in natural language. You can’t trust their natural language proofs. These are stochastic processes. And so the fact that they’re saying things doesn’t mean that they necessarily have a model of mathematics in their heads, whatever that means, the same way that we do. But that’s okay ’cause they’ll write a Lean code that builds on top of Mathlib, builds on top of the Prime Number Theorem Pro– Plus project or whatever, and checks that it has indeed solved this problem down to the axioms.
Ankur Moitra
So this is where I’ll just take the tangent, and the thought experiment may be a bit philosophical at this moment, but what if you have that black box that gives you proofs that you can’t understand? Let’s say the more interesting case where, not because it’s so big, but because the ideas just don’t make sense to you, to any of the world expert mathematicians in that field. What do you do with that?
So this is where I’ll just take the tangent, and the thought experiment may be a bit philosophical at this moment, but what if you have that black box that gives you proofs that you can’t understand? Let’s say the more interesting case where, not because it’s so big, but because the ideas just don’t make sense to you, to any of the world expert mathematicians in that field. What do you do with that?
Alex Kontorovich
So the only way, sort of almost by definition, because the logical rules of inference are written down, and there’s only a few of them. There’s a handful of them. The axioms, there’s a handful of them. So the only way that you have mathematics that’s not understandable is scale.
So the only way, sort of almost by definition, because the logical rules of inference are written down, and there’s only a few of them. There’s a handful of them. The axioms, there’s a handful of them. So the only way that you have mathematics that’s not understandable is scale.
Ankur Moitra
Let me add a contrarian take.
Let me add a contrarian take.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah, please.
Yeah, please.
Ankur Moitra
So one of the things I also wonder is what would unformalizing math look like? You know certainly formalization helps tremendously that we have confidence that the results are correct. But much of the way that we understand the results ourselves is really at some unformalized level. You know, what is an interesting special case? What, you know, where does this come from, you know, this technique you’re using, right? And, you know, maybe that’s what that world would look like. If we have these black boxes, we would try to tease apart and figure out how to ask them easier questions to develop some kind of system of understanding of how they actually got to the answer.
So one of the things I also wonder is what would unformalizing math look like? You know certainly formalization helps tremendously that we have confidence that the results are correct. But much of the way that we understand the results ourselves is really at some unformalized level. You know, what is an interesting special case? What, you know, where does this come from, you know, this technique you’re using, right? And, you know, maybe that’s what that world would look like. If we have these black boxes, we would try to tease apart and figure out how to ask them easier questions to develop some kind of system of understanding of how they actually got to the answer.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah, so there are really two different things that we conflate when we write a paper. One is the engineering of the proof, and the other is the communication of that to someone else, and they’re almost at odds with one another. I had this experience– So I taught real analysis last fall, and you open up any real analysis textbook, and this was my experience when I took real analysis. The first couple of lectures are what are the real numbers? You know, we have to define them or construct them as Cauchy– equivalence classes of Cauchy sequences of rationals, whatever the hell all that means.
Yeah, so there are really two different things that we conflate when we write a paper. One is the engineering of the proof, and the other is the communication of that to someone else, and they’re almost at odds with one another. I had this experience– So I taught real analysis last fall, and you open up any real analysis textbook, and this was my experience when I took real analysis. The first couple of lectures are what are the real numbers? You know, we have to define them or construct them as Cauchy– equivalence classes of Cauchy sequences of rationals, whatever the hell all that means.
Alex Kontorovich
It takes, like, two weeks for a first semester course in real analysis to get there, and then we have the real number line, and now we can start doing calculus, you know, with formal epsilon and delta definitions, yada yada. And it always struck me as bizarre that we do this because before the class, I knew what the real numbers were. It’s this number line, and then we spend these two weeks talking about Cauchy sequences of rationals, and then on week three, they’re a number line again. What the hell was the purpose of that? And so it’s because the way things are written or had been written were very engineering. You need to construct the real numbers before you go start using them.
It takes, like, two weeks for a first semester course in real analysis to get there, and then we have the real number line, and now we can start doing calculus, you know, with formal epsilon and delta definitions, yada yada. And it always struck me as bizarre that we do this because before the class, I knew what the real numbers were. It’s this number line, and then we spend these two weeks talking about Cauchy sequences of rationals, and then on week three, they’re a number line again. What the hell was the purpose of that? And so it’s because the way things are written or had been written were very engineering. You need to construct the real numbers before you go start using them.
Alex Kontorovich
But the real numbers, human beings used the real numbers long before we understood that they needed to be constructed formally. So what I did in my class is I jumped straight into epsilon delta calculus. We did, you know, six weeks of calculations until we got to a point where, wait a second, you know, if here’s a theorem, it’s true in the real numbers. There’s some convergence, something called Bolzano-Weierstrass theorem. You have a sequence of real numbers that are jumping around, but in a fixed range. There has to be some subsequence that converges to a real number. Well, that’s not true in the rationals. Why is it true in the reals? What are the reals? So you don’t start asking that question until you hit a problem that needs to be solved.
But the real numbers, human beings used the real numbers long before we understood that they needed to be constructed formally. So what I did in my class is I jumped straight into epsilon delta calculus. We did, you know, six weeks of calculations until we got to a point where, wait a second, you know, if here’s a theorem, it’s true in the real numbers. There’s some convergence, something called Bolzano-Weierstrass theorem. You have a sequence of real numbers that are jumping around, but in a fixed range. There has to be some subsequence that converges to a real number. Well, that’s not true in the rationals. Why is it true in the reals? What are the reals? So you don’t start asking that question until you hit a problem that needs to be solved.
Alex Kontorovich
So the way I taught the course was sort of backwards from how it needs to be taught if it’s an engineering project, ’cause you can’t just start talking about the real numbers until you’ve constructed them, until you know what they are. Well, that’s correct if what you’re doing is building up the theory. But if you’re telling a story, then you absolutely can just start with the real numbers. You have an intuition for what that is, and until your intuition breaks, you don’t need the resolution of how you actually construct them.
So the way I taught the course was sort of backwards from how it needs to be taught if it’s an engineering project, ’cause you can’t just start talking about the real numbers until you’ve constructed them, until you know what they are. Well, that’s correct if what you’re doing is building up the theory. But if you’re telling a story, then you absolutely can just start with the real numbers. You have an intuition for what that is, and until your intuition breaks, you don’t need the resolution of how you actually construct them.
Alex Kontorovich
So I think the way that we write papers in the future is gonna be very different, where we spend a lot more time just talking about the story of what have I learned in this process, what are the interesting– Here’s, you do the standard thing here, here, and here, but then here, you’re sort of stuck, and where do you go? And here’s an idea for why you go left and not right and not up and down or whatever. And there’s a Lean formalization that accompanies this story that lets you know that the engineering actually works out. ‘Cause you can’t just tell stories.
So I think the way that we write papers in the future is gonna be very different, where we spend a lot more time just talking about the story of what have I learned in this process, what are the interesting– Here’s, you do the standard thing here, here, and here, but then here, you’re sort of stuck, and where do you go? And here’s an idea for why you go left and not right and not up and down or whatever. And there’s a Lean formalization that accompanies this story that lets you know that the engineering actually works out. ‘Cause you can’t just tell stories.
Alex Kontorovich
If you just tell stories, you know, math is not it’s not music where you can tell a beautiful story, and it’s okay that you have parallel fifths moving somewhere, and, you know, you’ve broken some rule, but Bach does it all the time, so.
If you just tell stories, you know, math is not it’s not music where you can tell a beautiful story, and it’s okay that you have parallel fifths moving somewhere, and, you know, you’ve broken some rule, but Bach does it all the time, so.
Ankur Moitra
So I think that’s a very important point, just to sort of emphasize the point that Alex is making. You know, there’s this view of mathematics which I don’t believe in, where it’s just this rising tide of theorems. You know, how can AI be bad? It’s contributing to this rising tide. But, you know, really, mathematics is not just about the number of theorems we have, far from it. It’s also about that story of fighting with problems, because when you fight with a good problem, it fights back at you, and you learn something about it. It’s really about the system of beliefs and abstractions you come up with en route to, you know, when you’re fighting this problem, you discover some more general meaning that applies more broadly.
So I think that’s a very important point, just to sort of emphasize the point that Alex is making. You know, there’s this view of mathematics which I don’t believe in, where it’s just this rising tide of theorems. You know, how can AI be bad? It’s contributing to this rising tide. But, you know, really, mathematics is not just about the number of theorems we have, far from it. It’s also about that story of fighting with problems, because when you fight with a good problem, it fights back at you, and you learn something about it. It’s really about the system of beliefs and abstractions you come up with en route to, you know, when you’re fighting this problem, you discover some more general meaning that applies more broadly.
Ankur Moitra
And I think it’s a great opportunity to sort of disabuse ourselves of this idea that we’re just you know, axiomatizing things until we get to the next theorem. You know, telling that story of how we actually got to these problems, what the parallels are to other problems, is now, at this pivotal moment, more important than it ever has been.
And I think it’s a great opportunity to sort of disabuse ourselves of this idea that we’re just you know, axiomatizing things until we get to the next theorem. You know, telling that story of how we actually got to these problems, what the parallels are to other problems, is now, at this pivotal moment, more important than it ever has been.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah, so to get all the way back to your question about, you know, is it a matter of scale, well yes, it’s just a matter of scale, but exactly to Ankur’s point, the way that we think about mathematics is about stories, and it might be that we don’t understand the story of this. You can follow a proof line by line and not understand what’s really going on. You might say, and you just ask some other LLM to explain to you the story if it can come up with such an explanation. But that’s what we want. We want stories. We want understanding.
Yeah, so to get all the way back to your question about, you know, is it a matter of scale, well yes, it’s just a matter of scale, but exactly to Ankur’s point, the way that we think about mathematics is about stories, and it might be that we don’t understand the story of this. You can follow a proof line by line and not understand what’s really going on. You might say, and you just ask some other LLM to explain to you the story if it can come up with such an explanation. But that’s what we want. We want stories. We want understanding.
Lex Fridman
When you fight with a problem, it fights back. I think there’s a deep truth to that about all the great pursuits that humanity has taken on. And on that topic, I would like to talk to you about some of the greatest fights of all time with some of the hardest problems in mathematics that have fallen. But first, we’ll have to break if it’s okay.
When you fight with a problem, it fights back. I think there’s a deep truth to that about all the great pursuits that humanity has taken on. And on that topic, I would like to talk to you about some of the greatest fights of all time with some of the hardest problems in mathematics that have fallen. But first, we’ll have to break if it’s okay.
Ankur Moitra
Sure.
Sure.
Riemann hypothesis
Lex Fridman
So Alex, you’re a number theorist. Maybe it’s fair to say the central problem in your field is the Riemann hypothesis, and you showed a lot of excitement on the aforementioned Twitter/X about the quasi-RH, the quasi-Riemann hypothesis proof. Can you explain that? Can you explain what the Riemann hypothesis is, and can you explain the nature of your excitement about it?
So Alex, you’re a number theorist. Maybe it’s fair to say the central problem in your field is the Riemann hypothesis, and you showed a lot of excitement on the aforementioned Twitter/X about the quasi-RH, the quasi-Riemann hypothesis proof. Can you explain that? Can you explain what the Riemann hypothesis is, and can you explain the nature of your excitement about it?
Alex Kontorovich
Sure. There’s sort of a, a one-minute version of the Riemann hypothesis- … or a five-minute version or a thirty-hour version. I don’t know how far you wanna go.
Sure. There’s sort of a, a one-minute version of the Riemann hypothesis- … or a five-minute version or a thirty-hour version. I don’t know how far you wanna go.
Lex Fridman
Let’s start pulling at that string.
Let’s start pulling at that string.
Alex Kontorovich
So we know what the prime numbers are. People are interested in the distribution of the prime numbers, and what Riemann discovered is that there’s a function, this is totally crazy, that there’s a function that takes complex numbers as inputs and has complex numbers as outputs, and that function governs the behavior of the prime numbers. It’s called the Riemann zeta function, and by the zeros of the zeta function, we mean complex inputs where the output is the number zero in the complex plane, so the origin in the complex plane. And the question is, where do these, where are these complex zeros? What inputs, what complex number inputs give you a complex number output of zero when you apply this zeta function? Why in the world should that– What, complex numbers?
So we know what the prime numbers are. People are interested in the distribution of the prime numbers, and what Riemann discovered is that there’s a function, this is totally crazy, that there’s a function that takes complex numbers as inputs and has complex numbers as outputs, and that function governs the behavior of the prime numbers. It’s called the Riemann zeta function, and by the zeros of the zeta function, we mean complex inputs where the output is the number zero in the complex plane, so the origin in the complex plane. And the question is, where do these, where are these complex zeros? What inputs, what complex number inputs give you a complex number output of zero when you apply this zeta function? Why in the world should that– What, complex numbers?
Alex Kontorovich
Are you– What are you talking about? We have these discrete numbers that aren’t divisible by anything else sitting in the natural numbers on the number line, and now you wanna talk about functions from a complex space to a complex space. That was the great breakthrough. The great breakthrough was to figure out how to do signal processing on the prime numbers. If you think about, you know, the reason people can hear your podcast is that my voice box is producing pressure waves of sound. That’s the natural space. Then that goes into the microphone. The microphone analyzes it, does the Fourier analysis on it, converts it into amplitudes and frequencies, and it’s just a bunch of numbers, stores those numbers or sends those numbers, whatever.
Are you– What are you talking about? We have these discrete numbers that aren’t divisible by anything else sitting in the natural numbers on the number line, and now you wanna talk about functions from a complex space to a complex space. That was the great breakthrough. The great breakthrough was to figure out how to do signal processing on the prime numbers. If you think about, you know, the reason people can hear your podcast is that my voice box is producing pressure waves of sound. That’s the natural space. Then that goes into the microphone. The microphone analyzes it, does the Fourier analysis on it, converts it into amplitudes and frequencies, and it’s just a bunch of numbers, stores those numbers or sends those numbers, whatever.
Alex Kontorovich
The speaker then takes those numbers and reconstructs back out what sounds to people like my voice. The same thing is going on– That’s what the zeta function does for the prime numbers. It takes the prime numbers, you can think of the prime numbers as particles of air molecules wiggling around and it does a signal processing analysis on it that can recover the same prime numbers back. And the frequencies and the amplitudes correspond to the zeros of the zeta function. The zeta function has that information in it. And the Riemann hypothesis, so the amplitudes of all of these, you can call them Riemann waves, and the superposition of those waves recovers the distribution of the primes. And all of those amplitudes are supposed to be exactly the same.
The speaker then takes those numbers and reconstructs back out what sounds to people like my voice. The same thing is going on– That’s what the zeta function does for the prime numbers. It takes the prime numbers, you can think of the prime numbers as particles of air molecules wiggling around and it does a signal processing analysis on it that can recover the same prime numbers back. And the frequencies and the amplitudes correspond to the zeros of the zeta function. The zeta function has that information in it. And the Riemann hypothesis, so the amplitudes of all of these, you can call them Riemann waves, and the superposition of those waves recovers the distribution of the primes. And all of those amplitudes are supposed to be exactly the same.
Alex Kontorovich
Like, the orchestra that plays the music of the prime numbers has every single instrument sounding at exactly the same amplitude. That’s what the Riemann hypothesis predicts.
Like, the orchestra that plays the music of the prime numbers has every single instrument sounding at exactly the same amplitude. That’s what the Riemann hypothesis predicts.
Lex Fridman
So can you– Actually we know what the prime numbers are, but maybe going into the space of philosophy and the romantic notions of aesthetics, why are they so interesting and important and central and beautiful at the core of mathematics? And connected to why the Riemann hypothesis is exciting is why is it so difficult to figure out if and what the pattern is in the prime numbers?
So can you– Actually we know what the prime numbers are, but maybe going into the space of philosophy and the romantic notions of aesthetics, why are they so interesting and important and central and beautiful at the core of mathematics? And connected to why the Riemann hypothesis is exciting is why is it so difficult to figure out if and what the pattern is in the prime numbers?
Alex Kontorovich
Let me start with your second question first. Why something is difficult, I only know how to answer once I know what the answer is.
Let me start with your second question first. Why something is difficult, I only know how to answer once I know what the answer is.
Lex Fridman
Once it’s made simple.
Once it’s made simple.
Alex Kontorovich
Right? Maybe it’s not difficult. Maybe it’s not as difficult as we thought it was. I did not think I would see a proof of the quasi-Riemann hypothesis in my lifetime. So the fact that I saw it on Tuesday was extraordinarily shocking.
Right? Maybe it’s not difficult. Maybe it’s not as difficult as we thought it was. I did not think I would see a proof of the quasi-Riemann hypothesis in my lifetime. So the fact that I saw it on Tuesday was extraordinarily shocking.
Lex Fridman
What did you do the moment you saw it, like, in 30 seconds after? Like, what was your– Do you remember, like, what-
What did you do the moment you saw it, like, in 30 seconds after? Like, what was your– Do you remember, like, what-
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah, I know where I w– I remember where I was- … the second I saw the drop. So we were at this National Museum of Mathematics Gala- … in New York City. And so I had, you know, a whiskey in one hand, and I kept refreshing. I was talking to people, socializing, but I also kept refreshing ’cause I knew it was dropping around six o’clock Eastern Time.
Yeah, I know where I w– I remember where I was- … the second I saw the drop. So we were at this National Museum of Mathematics Gala- … in New York City. And so I had, you know, a whiskey in one hand, and I kept refreshing. I was talking to people, socializing, but I also kept refreshing ’cause I knew it was dropping around six o’clock Eastern Time.
Alex Kontorovich
And then the drop hit and, in fact, I was talking to, there was a Quanta reporter there and we were just chatting, “Oh, yeah, they’re gonna drop these, you know, 300, 400,” we didn’t know how many, 700 it turns out problems. And I was like, “Oh, wow, that’s really cool. It dropped.” So I’m looking at my phone, and, like, the second thing I see is quasi-RH. And I’m like, “What do you mean, quasi-RH? You don’t mean, like… For, for what?” And then I look, and it’s the zeta function, and it’s all Dirichlet functions, so they’ve solved no zero, zeros. And I’m like, that can’t, that can’t be what’s in this drop. That just– I could not compute- … in that moment what I was seeing.
And then the drop hit and, in fact, I was talking to, there was a Quanta reporter there and we were just chatting, “Oh, yeah, they’re gonna drop these, you know, 300, 400,” we didn’t know how many, 700 it turns out problems. And I was like, “Oh, wow, that’s really cool. It dropped.” So I’m looking at my phone, and, like, the second thing I see is quasi-RH. And I’m like, “What do you mean, quasi-RH? You don’t mean, like… For, for what?” And then I look, and it’s the zeta function, and it’s all Dirichlet functions, so they’ve solved no zero, zeros. And I’m like, that can’t, that can’t be what’s in this drop. That just– I could not compute- … in that moment what I was seeing.
Lex Fridman
That speed of progress in that little time, yeah.
That speed of progress in that little time, yeah.
Alex Kontorovich
It’s just, it was so far outside my model of what was possible. And this is– It’s been a month of things happening way outside of my model of what was possible. The Fermat’s Last Theorem formalization, I was sure we were three years away, at least, from being able to do something like that.
It’s just, it was so far outside my model of what was possible. And this is– It’s been a month of things happening way outside of my model of what was possible. The Fermat’s Last Theorem formalization, I was sure we were three years away, at least, from being able to do something like that.
Lex Fridman
So, maybe you can elaborate on that. It was in Lean, it was formalized as… How big was the Fermat’s Last Theorem in Lean?
So, maybe you can elaborate on that. It was in Lean, it was formalized as… How big was the Fermat’s Last Theorem in Lean?
Alex Kontorovich
Like, 13 million lines.
Like, 13 million lines.
Lex Fridman
13 million lines.
13 million lines.
Alex Kontorovich
So I just– Two days before, I gave a colloquium in the Princeton Math Department where I explained in painstaking detail what Lean is, what Mathlib is, but also that AI systems today, you know, there’s this Mathlib library where everything is kind of perfectly done, exactly the right levels of generality, enough– There’s no– There’s not supposed to be any code that’s reusing code that’s reproving theorems somewhere else. Everything is the most general, the most abstract, and what AI systems are capable of doing is building, like, one or two layers on top of that. But they’re, what they’re doing is jerry-rigging.
So I just– Two days before, I gave a colloquium in the Princeton Math Department where I explained in painstaking detail what Lean is, what Mathlib is, but also that AI systems today, you know, there’s this Mathlib library where everything is kind of perfectly done, exactly the right levels of generality, enough– There’s no– There’s not supposed to be any code that’s reusing code that’s reproving theorems somewhere else. Everything is the most general, the most abstract, and what AI systems are capable of doing is building, like, one or two layers on top of that. But they’re, what they’re doing is jerry-rigging.
Alex Kontorovich
They have not been trained yet, I’m not saying they can’t do it, but they’re not good at it right now, at what I call canonization, which is taking kind of sloppy code, refactoring it, figuring out exactly where in the library it belongs, what’s the canonical version of this statement, of this lemma, and then everything, every proof should just be a combination of you apply this lemma from over here, you apply that lemma from over there, put all these things together, there’s your theorem. And then it’s really clean, it’s really beautiful, very elegant. That’s what Mathlib is going for. And what I said in my colloquium is, where we are today is that you can get entire textbooks formalized as long as they’re in the Mathlib halo.
They have not been trained yet, I’m not saying they can’t do it, but they’re not good at it right now, at what I call canonization, which is taking kind of sloppy code, refactoring it, figuring out exactly where in the library it belongs, what’s the canonical version of this statement, of this lemma, and then everything, every proof should just be a combination of you apply this lemma from over here, you apply that lemma from over there, put all these things together, there’s your theorem. And then it’s really clean, it’s really beautiful, very elegant. That’s what Mathlib is going for. And what I said in my colloquium is, where we are today is that you can get entire textbooks formalized as long as they’re in the Mathlib halo.
Alex Kontorovich
As long as they’re, like, one, maybe two steps removed from things that have already been done in Mathlib. But when you start, and this had been my practice, my experience had been, when you start asking it to do things that are, you know, three or four steps removed from the library, the way that it came up with a definition of this object and the way that it came up with some other definition of the same object, ’cause it was doing it for two different purposes, then they clash. You can’t stitch these things back together. Like, you really need the library, Mathlib, to grow- … in order to get to a place where you can do research manuscripts, you know, that are really using, synthesizing tons of different areas of mathematics.
As long as they’re, like, one, maybe two steps removed from things that have already been done in Mathlib. But when you start, and this had been my practice, my experience had been, when you start asking it to do things that are, you know, three or four steps removed from the library, the way that it came up with a definition of this object and the way that it came up with some other definition of the same object, ’cause it was doing it for two different purposes, then they clash. You can’t stitch these things back together. Like, you really need the library, Mathlib, to grow- … in order to get to a place where you can do research manuscripts, you know, that are really using, synthesizing tons of different areas of mathematics.
Lex Fridman
Which is why you would expect Fermat’s Last Theorem to take– because it’s so far outside of the halo of Mathlib, it would take quite a bit of time.
Which is why you would expect Fermat’s Last Theorem to take– because it’s so far outside of the halo of Mathlib, it would take quite a bit of time.
Alex Kontorovich
Exactly right. So Kevin Buzzard had a million dollar grant to spend the next five years, or I th- maybe he’s already a year or two into that grant, to reduce the formalization of Fermat’s Last Theorem to things that were known in the 1980s. So he wanted to do that last step, those seven years of Wiles’ work, and Wiles–Taylor, to finally finish, you know, Fermat’s Last Theorem, but built on top of things that we knew would be extraordinarily difficult. He wasn’t gonna do Langlands–Tunnell, he wasn’t gonna do Mazur. There were all kinds of things that were expected to be even much more difficult than what these five years would take.
Exactly right. So Kevin Buzzard had a million dollar grant to spend the next five years, or I th- maybe he’s already a year or two into that grant, to reduce the formalization of Fermat’s Last Theorem to things that were known in the 1980s. So he wanted to do that last step, those seven years of Wiles’ work, and Wiles–Taylor, to finally finish, you know, Fermat’s Last Theorem, but built on top of things that we knew would be extraordinarily difficult. He wasn’t gonna do Langlands–Tunnell, he wasn’t gonna do Mazur. There were all kinds of things that were expected to be even much more difficult than what these five years would take.
Alex Kontorovich
And everything I said in that colloquium was wrong. And I think my colloquium was on a Wednesday. On Friday, there was a drop of thirteen million lines of code from the axioms, Fermat’s Last Theorem is proved. The statement of Fermat’s Last Theorem is completely elementary. There’s no semantic alignment to check. You just glance at it. Yes, that’s the statement. It’s– Lean says it’s sorry-free.
And everything I said in that colloquium was wrong. And I think my colloquium was on a Wednesday. On Friday, there was a drop of thirteen million lines of code from the axioms, Fermat’s Last Theorem is proved. The statement of Fermat’s Last Theorem is completely elementary. There’s no semantic alignment to check. You just glance at it. Yes, that’s the statement. It’s– Lean says it’s sorry-free.
Lex Fridman
Can you explain how it was done?
Can you explain how it was done?
Alex Kontorovich
How it was done. So it was Anthropic, and how it was done was AI systems just got really, really good at– It’s still not a nice proof. It’s not the clean proof. It’s not– There’s still a ton of work that needs to be done to make that proof a Mathlib quality proof, and I think that’s important work and work that we want to do. But in terms of just getting that sorry-free theorem, they just blasted through all of these. They jerry-rigged this, they jerry-rigged that, and, you know, thirteen million lines later, they had a sorry-free formal Lean proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem. It’s just absolutely shocking.
How it was done. So it was Anthropic, and how it was done was AI systems just got really, really good at– It’s still not a nice proof. It’s not the clean proof. It’s not– There’s still a ton of work that needs to be done to make that proof a Mathlib quality proof, and I think that’s important work and work that we want to do. But in terms of just getting that sorry-free theorem, they just blasted through all of these. They jerry-rigged this, they jerry-rigged that, and, you know, thirteen million lines later, they had a sorry-free formal Lean proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem. It’s just absolutely shocking.
Lex Fridman
By the way, it’s beautiful to always– Because of how rapid everything is, there’s going to be a lot of statements that everybody makes, the world experts make, that are wrong. That’s the whole point of it. And that’s the fun thing about human discussion, is we have disagreements and I would venture to say somewhere between forty to eighty percent of everything said today will be wrong in five years because everything’s changing so fast. But that’s the whole point of human discussion and deliberation and discourse and the, even the scientific process is saying shit and seeing what sticks over time. Over ten years, over a hundred years, and so on.
By the way, it’s beautiful to always– Because of how rapid everything is, there’s going to be a lot of statements that everybody makes, the world experts make, that are wrong. That’s the whole point of it. And that’s the fun thing about human discussion, is we have disagreements and I would venture to say somewhere between forty to eighty percent of everything said today will be wrong in five years because everything’s changing so fast. But that’s the whole point of human discussion and deliberation and discourse and the, even the scientific process is saying shit and seeing what sticks over time. Over ten years, over a hundred years, and so on.
Alex Kontorovich
I was describing my experience. I had a lot of experience with Lean and with using AI. I started doing Lean before AI existed in the sense that we understand it now, and it was very painstaking. And the second AI systems came on, you know, the first LLMs were coming online, they were crap at Lean, but then they got a little bit better, a little bit better, and I was like, “Oh my God, I can do library search.”
I was describing my experience. I had a lot of experience with Lean and with using AI. I started doing Lean before AI existed in the sense that we understand it now, and it was very painstaking. And the second AI systems came on, you know, the first LLMs were coming online, they were crap at Lean, but then they got a little bit better, a little bit better, and I was like, “Oh my God, I can do library search.”
Alex Kontorovich
I don’t have to sit there looking f- I know there’s a lemma that does this, but I don’t know what it’s called, and I don’t know which exactly. Is it in the manifolds library? Is it in the algebraic geometry library? Like, give me this, give me this lemmas. It was great at that, and I was like, “Oh, this is amazing. I’m gonna keep using these systems.” And every bit of my experience told me that they can do, like, X, but not ten X, and this was a million X. It was just completely outside of the distribution in my mind of what systems were capable of.
I don’t have to sit there looking f- I know there’s a lemma that does this, but I don’t know what it’s called, and I don’t know which exactly. Is it in the manifolds library? Is it in the algebraic geometry library? Like, give me this, give me this lemmas. It was great at that, and I was like, “Oh, this is amazing. I’m gonna keep using these systems.” And every bit of my experience told me that they can do, like, X, but not ten X, and this was a million X. It was just completely outside of the distribution in my mind of what systems were capable of.
Lex Fridman
Do you have a ballpark estimate of how many humans were involved in that, and, like, what is the level of human involvement in generating those thirteen million lines of code?
Do you have a ballpark estimate of how many humans were involved in that, and, like, what is the level of human involvement in generating those thirteen million lines of code?
Alex Kontorovich
I believe it was two or three humans.
I believe it was two or three humans.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Alex Kontorovich
And I believe most of their involvement was, “Keep going,” all caps.
And I believe most of their involvement was, “Keep going,” all caps.
Lex Fridman
Okay. All right, so you think it’s really just, like, gentle guidance, not like, you know, pathway creating and-
Okay. All right, so you think it’s really just, like, gentle guidance, not like, you know, pathway creating and-
Alex Kontorovich
As far as I understand, there was no domain expertise-
As far as I understand, there was no domain expertise-
Lex Fridman
Okay
Okay
Alex Kontorovich
… on the parts of the people who were doing this.
… on the parts of the people who were doing this.
Lex Fridman
As the meme goes with with OpenAI or Anthropic, you know, the prompt is solve math- … or something. And then-
As the meme goes with with OpenAI or Anthropic, you know, the prompt is solve math- … or something. And then-
Alex Kontorovich
Do a breakthrough.
Do a breakthrough.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah. Do a breakthrough.
Yeah, yeah. Do a breakthrough.
Alex Kontorovich
Do a breakthrough. That’s the prompt. And it goes and does it.
Do a breakthrough. That’s the prompt. And it goes and does it.
Lex Fridman
Of course, you never know from a company perspective, there’s a lot of incentive to sort of sell it as that, even though there might have been a lot of intermediate steps that led whe- at any stages of the training or maybe some things left unsaid, even though the final prompt is do a breakthrough, there could be a lot of groundwork before that, that led to, we don’t know.
Of course, you never know from a company perspective, there’s a lot of incentive to sort of sell it as that, even though there might have been a lot of intermediate steps that led whe- at any stages of the training or maybe some things left unsaid, even though the final prompt is do a breakthrough, there could be a lot of groundwork before that, that led to, we don’t know.
Alex Kontorovich
So I remember that was a Friday because I just was completely, like my mind was completely exploded, and it was Labor Day, and we just took the kids to the beach, and I needed a few days of, you know, I’m not checking my phone, I’m not on Twitter. I’m just throwing, you know, throwing my kids into the ocean and, and-
So I remember that was a Friday because I just was completely, like my mind was completely exploded, and it was Labor Day, and we just took the kids to the beach, and I needed a few days of, you know, I’m not checking my phone, I’m not on Twitter. I’m just throwing, you know, throwing my kids into the ocean and, and-
Lex Fridman
Did you have that moment where you’re just sitting and looking at the ocean and contemplating?
Did you have that moment where you’re just sitting and looking at the ocean and contemplating?
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah. Like, what does it all mean? So I had already gone through that a month before. And I was like, I– So now what that says is that autoformalization is basically solved.
Yeah. Like, what does it all mean? So I had already gone through that a month before. And I was like, I– So now what that says is that autoformalization is basically solved.
Alex Kontorovich
It’s not solved in the way that I would want it to be solved. I want– And I st– And people are still gonna work very, very hard on this. There’s all kinds of other things that happen, just like there’s all kinds of other things that happen when you prove theorems that are byproducts of that process for human understanding. There’s all kinds of other things when you work on making a beautiful library of mathematics, and that process will continue. That process will be very difficult. It’s gonna be the, you know, thousands of man-hours of people around the world contributing in this open source way. But in terms of can you get a sorry-free proof of something that human beings have written down on paper, I think that problem is done.
It’s not solved in the way that I would want it to be solved. I want– And I st– And people are still gonna work very, very hard on this. There’s all kinds of other things that happen, just like there’s all kinds of other things that happen when you prove theorems that are byproducts of that process for human understanding. There’s all kinds of other things when you work on making a beautiful library of mathematics, and that process will continue. That process will be very difficult. It’s gonna be the, you know, thousands of man-hours of people around the world contributing in this open source way. But in terms of can you get a sorry-free proof of something that human beings have written down on paper, I think that problem is done.
Lex Fridman
And so you were standing there with a whiskey, having gone through this a month before, and now again.
And so you were standing there with a whiskey, having gone through this a month before, and now again.
Alex Kontorovich
Right. This was round three.
Right. This was round three.
Lex Fridman
This is round three.
This is round three.
Alex Kontorovich
‘Cause when I got back from Labor Day, it was Navier-Stokes.
‘Cause when I got back from Labor Day, it was Navier-Stokes.
Lex Fridman
Navier-Stokes.
Navier-Stokes.
Alex Kontorovich
But this one-
But this one-
Lex Fridman
So I was like, “I was just mourning FLT. You’re gonna do this to me? Come on.”
So I was like, “I was just mourning FLT. You’re gonna do this to me? Come on.”
Alex Kontorovich
But now, I mean, this really hit home, right? With the quasi-RH. So maybe can you, can you speak to the importance and the beauty of the primes, and also how big and hard the leap is from quasi-RH to full RH? Yeah, so the primes, the reason the primes are so valuable is that they are the fundamental particles in the theory of multiplication. Every whole number is broken down into a product of primes. You know, we know about the elementary particles in physics, and all of matter is made up of that. In the same way, the primes are the particles that make up the multiplicative structure of whole numbers. And their distribution had been a mystery, and it remains a mystery. Even the Riemann hypothesis doesn’t solve everything we wanna know about prime numbers.
But now, I mean, this really hit home, right? With the quasi-RH. So maybe can you, can you speak to the importance and the beauty of the primes, and also how big and hard the leap is from quasi-RH to full RH? Yeah, so the primes, the reason the primes are so valuable is that they are the fundamental particles in the theory of multiplication. Every whole number is broken down into a product of primes. You know, we know about the elementary particles in physics, and all of matter is made up of that. In the same way, the primes are the particles that make up the multiplicative structure of whole numbers. And their distribution had been a mystery, and it remains a mystery. Even the Riemann hypothesis doesn’t solve everything we wanna know about prime numbers.
Alex Kontorovich
But the Riemann hypothesis was so beautiful because it pointed the way to what the distribution should be, and it has a thousand applications in very faraway fields. If only the Riemann hypothesis were true, then we would know XYZ.
But the Riemann hypothesis was so beautiful because it pointed the way to what the distribution should be, and it has a thousand applications in very faraway fields. If only the Riemann hypothesis were true, then we would know XYZ.
Ankur Moitra
So let me interject a little story that came up last week, which was pretty entertaining. So we had Grant Sanderson was visiting IAS, and we had a long discussion about what is AI doing to the math community. And I really enjoyed this comment that Camillo De Lellis made, which was, I’ll do my best impression. I can’t do the accent.
So let me interject a little story that came up last week, which was pretty entertaining. So we had Grant Sanderson was visiting IAS, and we had a long discussion about what is AI doing to the math community. And I really enjoyed this comment that Camillo De Lellis made, which was, I’ll do my best impression. I can’t do the accent.
Ankur Moitra
But there was a play written in the 1950s by a mathematician. So who knows that mathematicians are writing plays, but apparently this play, the premise of it was that Von Neumann died, and he went to heaven. And he met God, and he got to ask him a question. So he asked him, “Is the Riemann hypothesis true?” And of course, everyone holds their breath as they’re waiting to hear the answer. And God says, “Yes.” So finally, everyone can exhale. And then Von Neumann asks, “But how do you know?” And God thinks and says, “Well, I know where all the zeros are, and they’re all in the R equals a half line.” So my understanding is the premise of the play is that that’s not enough for Von Neumann.
But there was a play written in the 1950s by a mathematician. So who knows that mathematicians are writing plays, but apparently this play, the premise of it was that Von Neumann died, and he went to heaven. And he met God, and he got to ask him a question. So he asked him, “Is the Riemann hypothesis true?” And of course, everyone holds their breath as they’re waiting to hear the answer. And God says, “Yes.” So finally, everyone can exhale. And then Von Neumann asks, “But how do you know?” And God thinks and says, “Well, I know where all the zeros are, and they’re all in the R equals a half line.” So my understanding is the premise of the play is that that’s not enough for Von Neumann.
Ankur Moitra
He gets a little bit agitated to try to find out more about why it’s true, and I think he ends up at the end in the other place.
He gets a little bit agitated to try to find out more about why it’s true, and I think he ends up at the end in the other place.
Alex Kontorovich
That’s great.
That’s great.
Ankur Moitra
So I don’t know what to draw as a moral from it, but- … it seems to speak to the mathematical experience.
So I don’t know what to draw as a moral from it, but- … it seems to speak to the mathematical experience.
Alex Kontorovich
Math is not the fact, it’s the why. It’s always been the why. It’s our deepest quest for understanding. And if you just tell me a fact is true, but I don’t understand why it’s true, that has contributed zero to my knowledge.
Math is not the fact, it’s the why. It’s always been the why. It’s our deepest quest for understanding. And if you just tell me a fact is true, but I don’t understand why it’s true, that has contributed zero to my knowledge.
Steven Brunton
So primes, I think, are also interesting because they relate to things that a three-year-old can understand. Like fundamentally, we know how to add one to numbers, and you know, there’s this breakthrough moment when you’re a kid, I can add one forever. That’s a big idea. I can keep adding one forever. Then you learn how to multiply and group, and that’s also a big idea. And primes are interesting to me, and have always been interesting, because we don’t understand how adding and multiplying work together. The two most fundamental, basic, simple ideas in all of mathematics, we don’t know how they work together. I can add one to a number that I can factor, and I have no idea what happens.
So primes, I think, are also interesting because they relate to things that a three-year-old can understand. Like fundamentally, we know how to add one to numbers, and you know, there’s this breakthrough moment when you’re a kid, I can add one forever. That’s a big idea. I can keep adding one forever. Then you learn how to multiply and group, and that’s also a big idea. And primes are interesting to me, and have always been interesting, because we don’t understand how adding and multiplying work together. The two most fundamental, basic, simple ideas in all of mathematics, we don’t know how they work together. I can add one to a number that I can factor, and I have no idea what happens.
Steven Brunton
I know if it’s even, it becomes odd and vice versa, but I don’t know if a number that has many, many composites becomes prime. We just fundamentally don’t know that simple, you know, adding one, how that changes multiplication. And primes are basically, you know, this like, the distillation of that three-year-old mystery, and it’s a mystery that all of us still wrestle with. You know, that would be the interesting bit, is if the proof told me something fundamental about that structure that I could actually use.
I know if it’s even, it becomes odd and vice versa, but I don’t know if a number that has many, many composites becomes prime. We just fundamentally don’t know that simple, you know, adding one, how that changes multiplication. And primes are basically, you know, this like, the distillation of that three-year-old mystery, and it’s a mystery that all of us still wrestle with. You know, that would be the interesting bit, is if the proof told me something fundamental about that structure that I could actually use.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah. To the three-year-old, I think my older one was something like two or three. He was playing– We had these little blocks, you know, cubes that kids like to play with. And there was like 20 of them in the pack, and so he would make like a little four by five grid, and he liked that, and he would make a 10 by two grid, and that was kinda cool. And then one day, I look over and he’s like really frustrated. I’m like, “What’s going on?” He’s like, “You know, it’s not working.” And one of them had rolled under the couch. And he only had 19. And he couldn’t figure out a way to make a nice-looking rectangle out of the 19.
Yeah. To the three-year-old, I think my older one was something like two or three. He was playing– We had these little blocks, you know, cubes that kids like to play with. And there was like 20 of them in the pack, and so he would make like a little four by five grid, and he liked that, and he would make a 10 by two grid, and that was kinda cool. And then one day, I look over and he’s like really frustrated. I’m like, “What’s going on?” He’s like, “You know, it’s not working.” And one of them had rolled under the couch. And he only had 19. And he couldn’t figure out a way to make a nice-looking rectangle out of the 19.
Steven Brunton
Yep. It still bothers me today.
Yep. It still bothers me today.
Alex Kontorovich
So… Yeah. So absolutely, kids love primes. Kids can- … discover primes. It’s the non-re-
So… Yeah. So absolutely, kids love primes. Kids can- … discover primes. It’s the non-re-
Ankur Moitra
And so the solution is to lose another, right?
And so the solution is to lose another, right?
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah. Well, exactly.
Yeah. Well, exactly.
Steven Brunton
That’s right.
That’s right.
Ankur Moitra
Do you think so the leap between quasi and RH, I presume you think humans will not, in your lifetime, be able to solve without AI’s help, the full Riemann hypothesis?
Do you think so the leap between quasi and RH, I presume you think humans will not, in your lifetime, be able to solve without AI’s help, the full Riemann hypothesis?
Alex Kontorovich
I don’t know.
I don’t know.
Ankur Moitra
Can AI, I guess, is the follow-on question. Like, how hard is it?
Can AI, I guess, is the follow-on question. Like, how hard is it?
Alex Kontorovich
I don’t know. I don’t know. I did not think I would see a proof of quasi-RH. Now that I see what the proof is, and there are a lot of technical details that I still have to go through for my own satisfaction. There’s a Lean formalization. The Lean statement was already in the library, was already in Mathlib, so the fact that they have a sorry-free proof gives me 100% confidence that the proof is right. And moreover, having read the proof, you know, at a high level, the ideas that it’s using are all completely valid. They’re brilliant. You know, to embed the Möbius function, twist it by sextic characters—this is all stuff that’s the bread and butter of analytic number theorists that was chained in just the right way and was absolutely incredible.
I don’t know. I don’t know. I did not think I would see a proof of quasi-RH. Now that I see what the proof is, and there are a lot of technical details that I still have to go through for my own satisfaction. There’s a Lean formalization. The Lean statement was already in the library, was already in Mathlib, so the fact that they have a sorry-free proof gives me 100% confidence that the proof is right. And moreover, having read the proof, you know, at a high level, the ideas that it’s using are all completely valid. They’re brilliant. You know, to embed the Möbius function, twist it by sextic characters—this is all stuff that’s the bread and butter of analytic number theorists that was chained in just the right way and was absolutely incredible.
Alex Kontorovich
And so what Riemann showed is that remember we were talking about this function that has complex inputs and has these outputs, and we’re worried about when the output is zero. So he showed that there’s what’s called the critical strip, which is a vertical infinite strip in the complex plane, where the real part is– So you can think about the X coordinate lies between zero and one, and the imaginary part, the Y coordinate, can go arbitrarily high or arbitrarily low. And the hypothesis is that the zeros all lie right at the dead center of that strip, where the real part is a half. That’s exactly what Ankur was just saying. And what we knew until Tuesday was region where there are no zeros of the zeta function, that’s like getting thinner and thinner the higher up you go.
And so what Riemann showed is that remember we were talking about this function that has complex inputs and has these outputs, and we’re worried about when the output is zero. So he showed that there’s what’s called the critical strip, which is a vertical infinite strip in the complex plane, where the real part is– So you can think about the X coordinate lies between zero and one, and the imaginary part, the Y coordinate, can go arbitrarily high or arbitrarily low. And the hypothesis is that the zeros all lie right at the dead center of that strip, where the real part is a half. That’s exactly what Ankur was just saying. And what we knew until Tuesday was region where there are no zeros of the zeta function, that’s like getting thinner and thinner the higher up you go.
Alex Kontorovich
It goes towards the one line. The one line is something called the prime number theorem, which tells you the basic distribution of the prime numbers is equivalent to the fact that there are no zeros of this function on the line real part of S equals one. So if the X coordinate is one- As you go up and down that line, you will never find a value where when you apply the zeta function, it hits zero. Okay? So we have this zero-free region that was getting thinner and thinner the higher up you go, and that gave us the best known distribution on the prime numbers, the best error term in the prime number theorem, which I can go into if you– You tell me how much math you wanna, you wanna talk about.
It goes towards the one line. The one line is something called the prime number theorem, which tells you the basic distribution of the prime numbers is equivalent to the fact that there are no zeros of this function on the line real part of S equals one. So if the X coordinate is one- As you go up and down that line, you will never find a value where when you apply the zeta function, it hits zero. Okay? So we have this zero-free region that was getting thinner and thinner the higher up you go, and that gave us the best known distribution on the prime numbers, the best error term in the prime number theorem, which I can go into if you– You tell me how much math you wanna, you wanna talk about.
Lex Fridman
Let’s go.
Let’s go.
Alex Kontorovich
But what I could have anticipated is that it would thicken that line a little bit as you, you know, it would still be going to zero. The thickness would still be going to zero as you go up the imaginary axis, but it would be better than what we currently know. That thickness hasn’t moved in seventy years, but I could sort of imagine that it could maybe make some progress. What it did is it gave us a vertical strip, so there are no zeros with real part between seven-eighths and one, an entire infinite vertical strip. That’s a quasi-Riemann hypothesis, and if you can get that seven-eighths down to a half, that’s the full Riemann hypothesis.
But what I could have anticipated is that it would thicken that line a little bit as you, you know, it would still be going to zero. The thickness would still be going to zero as you go up the imaginary axis, but it would be better than what we currently know. That thickness hasn’t moved in seventy years, but I could sort of imagine that it could maybe make some progress. What it did is it gave us a vertical strip, so there are no zeros with real part between seven-eighths and one, an entire infinite vertical strip. That’s a quasi-Riemann hypothesis, and if you can get that seven-eighths down to a half, that’s the full Riemann hypothesis.
Alex Kontorovich
Now, the methods that it used in the seven-eighths proof, and there’s a second proof that’s about eleven-twelfths, never mind these technical details, that method sort of fundamentally can’t get down to one half.
Now, the methods that it used in the seven-eighths proof, and there’s a second proof that’s about eleven-twelfths, never mind these technical details, that method sort of fundamentally can’t get down to one half.
Lex Fridman
So a new idea is needed.
So a new idea is needed.
Alex Kontorovich
You need a new idea, but quasi-RH needed lots and lots of new ideas, and it came up with that.
You need a new idea, but quasi-RH needed lots and lots of new ideas, and it came up with that.
Lex Fridman
Is your– Having gone through this three times already, is your intuition, this is for all three of you, about remeasuring in your mind the hardness of the various problems? ‘Cause you mentioned, like, picking easy things. ‘Cause that presumably you have a good hardness radar, like, this problem is probably solvable, and this is not solvable today, solvable this week, solvable this month, you know. Are you readjusting to this new world and your-
Is your– Having gone through this three times already, is your intuition, this is for all three of you, about remeasuring in your mind the hardness of the various problems? ‘Cause you mentioned, like, picking easy things. ‘Cause that presumably you have a good hardness radar, like, this problem is probably solvable, and this is not solvable today, solvable this week, solvable this month, you know. Are you readjusting to this new world and your-
Ankur Moitra
I’m readjusting my inability to predict it.
I’m readjusting my inability to predict it.
Lex Fridman
Yes. Exactly. Well, you had the ability, no? It’s noisy.
Yes. Exactly. Well, you had the ability, no? It’s noisy.
Ankur Moitra
Sure. It’s a larger amount of noise than I thought. I mean, I think we’ve always known that there are problems we care about that are within reach of the tools that are out there right now, but it’s just surprising the scale at which, you know, how many different problems really fall into that category. So we also don’t know a lot about, you know, apparently they prompted thousands of problems, and what they dropped were only the positive solutions, that they only had about a ten percent success rate. So we’re sort of left guessing, you know, is there a very jagged boundary that we could squint at and say we can make sense out of that distinguishes you know, what did fall versus what didn’t fall?
Sure. It’s a larger amount of noise than I thought. I mean, I think we’ve always known that there are problems we care about that are within reach of the tools that are out there right now, but it’s just surprising the scale at which, you know, how many different problems really fall into that category. So we also don’t know a lot about, you know, apparently they prompted thousands of problems, and what they dropped were only the positive solutions, that they only had about a ten percent success rate. So we’re sort of left guessing, you know, is there a very jagged boundary that we could squint at and say we can make sense out of that distinguishes you know, what did fall versus what didn’t fall?
Ankur Moitra
I think one of the other dangers is that maybe the problems which are the safest are ones which you look at and it’s just painfully obvious you need a really creative new idea. You know, because you can sort of tell that maybe there’s a barrier and the things that are out there in the literature just don’t seem to fit into that hole. But now I think one of the things that’s changed the landscape of math forever is, you know, maybe people become a little bit more secretive with those ideas than they were in the past.
I think one of the other dangers is that maybe the problems which are the safest are ones which you look at and it’s just painfully obvious you need a really creative new idea. You know, because you can sort of tell that maybe there’s a barrier and the things that are out there in the literature just don’t seem to fit into that hole. But now I think one of the things that’s changed the landscape of math forever is, you know, maybe people become a little bit more secretive with those ideas than they were in the past.
Ankur Moitra
You know, because once those ideas are out there, then you know, it might be a lot more straightforward for AI to be able to balance that one new idea, that missing ingredient, that new tile it needs, and be able to fully exhaustively explore what it can reach out of that. So you might be a lot more protective of your ideas than you were in the past. I think that’s also a bit scary because traditionally, the mathematics community has been really open with sharing ideas, and that would be something bad to lose.
You know, because once those ideas are out there, then you know, it might be a lot more straightforward for AI to be able to balance that one new idea, that missing ingredient, that new tile it needs, and be able to fully exhaustively explore what it can reach out of that. So you might be a lot more protective of your ideas than you were in the past. I think that’s also a bit scary because traditionally, the mathematics community has been really open with sharing ideas, and that would be something bad to lose.
Alex Kontorovich
But that’s also because we had this first through the gate mentality, and I think that’s also gonna change.
But that’s also because we had this first through the gate mentality, and I think that’s also gonna change.
Ankur Moitra
That’s right.
That’s right.
Alex Kontorovich
I would prefer that the openness stay and the first through the gate is what goes.
I would prefer that the openness stay and the first through the gate is what goes.
Ankur Moitra
That’s right, but that’ll take time.
That’s right, but that’ll take time.
Alex Kontorovich
It’ll take time.
It’ll take time.
Ankur Moitra
Yeah. So that could be an effect, you know, that’s more transient in nature, that if we can learn how to value other things, then maybe that’ll go away. There are other communities that have models for how to value contribution, even when it’s not lionizing one individual’s contribution. So it’s not that there’s not a way forward, but, you know, that is, in the short term, a real roadblock to doing mathematics the way that we used to and enjoying it the same way that we used to.
Yeah. So that could be an effect, you know, that’s more transient in nature, that if we can learn how to value other things, then maybe that’ll go away. There are other communities that have models for how to value contribution, even when it’s not lionizing one individual’s contribution. So it’s not that there’s not a way forward, but, you know, that is, in the short term, a real roadblock to doing mathematics the way that we used to and enjoying it the same way that we used to.
Navier-Stokes
Lex Fridman
So speaking of which, Steve, you told us a story about soup that made you maybe fall in love with the bigger problem of fluid dynamics. So going from math to applied math to engineering, the full thing. So maybe can you talk about Navier-Stokes, these set of equations that explain fluids, why it’s such a big deal, why it’s beautiful? Similar as we talked about primes, why is it so hard, and why is it such a big deal that Navier-Stokes was proven?
So speaking of which, Steve, you told us a story about soup that made you maybe fall in love with the bigger problem of fluid dynamics. So going from math to applied math to engineering, the full thing. So maybe can you talk about Navier-Stokes, these set of equations that explain fluids, why it’s such a big deal, why it’s beautiful? Similar as we talked about primes, why is it so hard, and why is it such a big deal that Navier-Stokes was proven?
Steven Brunton
So fundamentally, the Navier-Stokes equations is just a way of stating the conservation of momentum for fluids, for objects that can move kind of freely, like gases and liquids. So we know F equals MA is conservation of momentum, you know, classical Newtonian physics. The same basic principle applies to the gas in this room, to water flowing, and it’s true in any volume. So it’s true in little volumes, big volumes, kind of imaginary volumes. And if you write down that conservation of momentum in a volume and then you kind of take the limit as that volume becomes arbitrary and small, you get these Navier-Stokes equations.
So fundamentally, the Navier-Stokes equations is just a way of stating the conservation of momentum for fluids, for objects that can move kind of freely, like gases and liquids. So we know F equals MA is conservation of momentum, you know, classical Newtonian physics. The same basic principle applies to the gas in this room, to water flowing, and it’s true in any volume. So it’s true in little volumes, big volumes, kind of imaginary volumes. And if you write down that conservation of momentum in a volume and then you kind of take the limit as that volume becomes arbitrary and small, you get these Navier-Stokes equations.
Steven Brunton
It’s a differential equation, a partial differential equation that describes how the velocity field of a fluid changes in space and time and also the pressure related to the forces acting on that fluid.
It’s a differential equation, a partial differential equation that describes how the velocity field of a fluid changes in space and time and also the pressure related to the forces acting on that fluid.
Lex Fridman
Can you give intuition about why fluid, given that F equals MA is a pretty simple equation, why fluids are such complicated systems?
Can you give intuition about why fluid, given that F equals MA is a pretty simple equation, why fluids are such complicated systems?
Steven Brunton
F equals MA is simple to write down, but it can get complicated really, really quickly. So if I have, like, a single pendulum, it’s really easy to write down the equations for that single pendulum. If I put, you know, another pendulum on the end of it, now I have a more complicated equation, and it gives chaos. Fluids is, you know, in a sense, if I try to model the air in this room, I could chop the room up into a billion little boxes and write down a little differential equation for how the momentum works in all of those billion little boxes, but now I have a really complicated system of equations.
F equals MA is simple to write down, but it can get complicated really, really quickly. So if I have, like, a single pendulum, it’s really easy to write down the equations for that single pendulum. If I put, you know, another pendulum on the end of it, now I have a more complicated equation, and it gives chaos. Fluids is, you know, in a sense, if I try to model the air in this room, I could chop the room up into a billion little boxes and write down a little differential equation for how the momentum works in all of those billion little boxes, but now I have a really complicated system of equations.
Steven Brunton
And so it’s simple to write down, it’s simple to conceptually understand what the equation is saying and representing, but actually solving it and understanding how the fluid actually moves in any kind of practical sense is very, very complicated.
And so it’s simple to write down, it’s simple to conceptually understand what the equation is saying and representing, but actually solving it and understanding how the fluid actually moves in any kind of practical sense is very, very complicated.
Lex Fridman
I read something like, you know, like one space where fluid dynamics is important is reducing drag for when you’re flying, for airplanes. I read something like airlines could save like, something like tens of billions of dollars by reducing the drag by one percent. So why is it so hard? So that’s one. And drag is maybe easier than something like turbulence. So like why is, why is these things that are worth so much money so difficult?
I read something like, you know, like one space where fluid dynamics is important is reducing drag for when you’re flying, for airplanes. I read something like airlines could save like, something like tens of billions of dollars by reducing the drag by one percent. So why is it so hard? So that’s one. And drag is maybe easier than something like turbulence. So like why is, why is these things that are worth so much money so difficult?
Steven Brunton
So the good news is, is that if you can improve our ability to predict turbulence, to simulate it even a little bit better, faster, more accurately, there are, you know, dozens of fields where you can have a huge impact, both economical, ecological, human health and safety, with a relatively small improvement. So drag reduction on airplanes, better artificial hearts, you know, more efficient wind turbines and gas turbines and, you know, you name it. The, the world is– We live and work in a fluid and so do all of our machines. The inverse design problem, I know it’s actually very closely related to this kind of like math problem. I know what I want to prove. I don’t know how to get there.
So the good news is, is that if you can improve our ability to predict turbulence, to simulate it even a little bit better, faster, more accurately, there are, you know, dozens of fields where you can have a huge impact, both economical, ecological, human health and safety, with a relatively small improvement. So drag reduction on airplanes, better artificial hearts, you know, more efficient wind turbines and gas turbines and, you know, you name it. The, the world is– We live and work in a fluid and so do all of our machines. The inverse design problem, I know it’s actually very closely related to this kind of like math problem. I know what I want to prove. I don’t know how to get there.
Steven Brunton
I know I want a wing that has high lift and low drag, but I don’t know how changing the geometry, changing the shape of that wing will affect this whole cascade of smaller and smaller and smaller vortices that, you know, this turbulent fluid that generates over the wing that eventually results in its lift and drag. I don’t know how to inverse design efficiently. Part of it’s because the equations are expensive to simulate or to test. You know, wind tunnels are expensive. You need supercomputers to simulate these things. This is actually kind of related to pure math. We’ll get back to this, I think.
I know I want a wing that has high lift and low drag, but I don’t know how changing the geometry, changing the shape of that wing will affect this whole cascade of smaller and smaller and smaller vortices that, you know, this turbulent fluid that generates over the wing that eventually results in its lift and drag. I don’t know how to inverse design efficiently. Part of it’s because the equations are expensive to simulate or to test. You know, wind tunnels are expensive. You need supercomputers to simulate these things. This is actually kind of related to pure math. We’ll get back to this, I think.
Steven Brunton
But there’s this really nice Feynman quote that, you know, we know how to write down these very general equations, Maxwell’s equations, Navier-Stokes equations, Schrodinger’s equations, but we currently don’t know from the equation what phenomena is possible. You know, if you’d never visited Earth, could you have possibly predicted the sunsets and the tides and all the phenomena just from like a partial differential equation? Like, we’re not even close to there. And there’s some very fundamental math questions about, you know, if I can– I can write down a differential equation. I can’t tell you what’s inside of it.
But there’s this really nice Feynman quote that, you know, we know how to write down these very general equations, Maxwell’s equations, Navier-Stokes equations, Schrodinger’s equations, but we currently don’t know from the equation what phenomena is possible. You know, if you’d never visited Earth, could you have possibly predicted the sunsets and the tides and all the phenomena just from like a partial differential equation? Like, we’re not even close to there. And there’s some very fundamental math questions about, you know, if I can– I can write down a differential equation. I can’t tell you what’s inside of it.
Steven Brunton
We still have to simulate, we still have to test, we still have to do this very elaborate engineering process to understand how these equations manifest drag on an airplane wing or turbulence inside of an artificial heart.
We still have to simulate, we still have to test, we still have to do this very elaborate engineering process to understand how these equations manifest drag on an airplane wing or turbulence inside of an artificial heart.
Alex Kontorovich
Sorry, can I just ask a question on that? I’ve always wanted… So like, in the case of Einstein’s theory of general relativity, he writes down these equations. A few years later, Schwarzschild finds a blowup, and they’re like, “Oh, come on. So what’s, what’s wrong with these equations that there’s a blowup? You know, if you get enough matter into a small enough space, then like light can’t escape it. This– We don’t have any physical experience for this. This has got to be a mistake in the equations.” Until we discover black holes.
Sorry, can I just ask a question on that? I’ve always wanted… So like, in the case of Einstein’s theory of general relativity, he writes down these equations. A few years later, Schwarzschild finds a blowup, and they’re like, “Oh, come on. So what’s, what’s wrong with these equations that there’s a blowup? You know, if you get enough matter into a small enough space, then like light can’t escape it. This– We don’t have any physical experience for this. This has got to be a mistake in the equations.” Until we discover black holes.
Alex Kontorovich
And then it turns out that actually the theory perfectly explains, you know, and predicts what’s supposed to happen. In the case of blowup of Navier-Stokes, are we going to discover something new about water, or is the fact that at some scale you get to particles, you know, you get to an atomic structure that does not follow the liquid equations anymore? Why would we have predicted that there should be solutions to a continuous process that’s allowed to be pushed to its limits?
And then it turns out that actually the theory perfectly explains, you know, and predicts what’s supposed to happen. In the case of blowup of Navier-Stokes, are we going to discover something new about water, or is the fact that at some scale you get to particles, you know, you get to an atomic structure that does not follow the liquid equations anymore? Why would we have predicted that there should be solutions to a continuous process that’s allowed to be pushed to its limits?
Steven Brunton
Yeah, it’s a great question. I’m gonna give you the engineering answer, which is these equations are an exceptionally good model of how fluids work at a certain scale. And you’re absolutely right. Like you need some number of individual molecules to be averaged over in a volume for these to be constitutive equations that are valid. And so if you zoom in small enough, you know, now we’re talking about individual molecules, and Navier-Stokes breaks down. So the mathematical problem of these equations blowing up is interesting from a mathematical standpoint. By the time they blow up, it stops being a fluid. It’s like-
Yeah, it’s a great question. I’m gonna give you the engineering answer, which is these equations are an exceptionally good model of how fluids work at a certain scale. And you’re absolutely right. Like you need some number of individual molecules to be averaged over in a volume for these to be constitutive equations that are valid. And so if you zoom in small enough, you know, now we’re talking about individual molecules, and Navier-Stokes breaks down. So the mathematical problem of these equations blowing up is interesting from a mathematical standpoint. By the time they blow up, it stops being a fluid. It’s like-
Alex Kontorovich
There’s no black holes.
There’s no black holes.
Steven Brunton
There’s no black holes. Like other physics takes over.
There’s no black holes. Like other physics takes over.
Lex Fridman
But it’s poss– Wait, I think it’s interesting from a philosophy of science perspective that where equations break down could, and maybe statistically high likelihood, is a window, a door in a breakthrough of needing some other discovery. Like Newtonian physics breaking down needs Einstein.
But it’s poss– Wait, I think it’s interesting from a philosophy of science perspective that where equations break down could, and maybe statistically high likelihood, is a window, a door in a breakthrough of needing some other discovery. Like Newtonian physics breaking down needs Einstein.
Alex Kontorovich
Right. And the grand unification is that- … we don’t have gravity at the same scales as we have, you know, interactions of subatomic particles.
Right. And the grand unification is that- … we don’t have gravity at the same scales as we have, you know, interactions of subatomic particles.
Steven Brunton
But this idea that we don’t know something so fundamental about these equations, there are so many people on Earth right now simulating and testing Navier-Stokes in every industry imaginable. I mean, it’s probably one of the most studied and analyzed and used equations in the entire engineering world. And we don’t know this fundamental property of the PDE. Does it blow up in finite time or not? That’s like the zeroth order version of the bigger question is, you know, what other kinds of solutions does it admit? Does it, you know– Are there sunsets and hurricanes and tornadoes and all the phenomenology that could exist? You know, existence and uniqueness is like the– the simplest baby step.
But this idea that we don’t know something so fundamental about these equations, there are so many people on Earth right now simulating and testing Navier-Stokes in every industry imaginable. I mean, it’s probably one of the most studied and analyzed and used equations in the entire engineering world. And we don’t know this fundamental property of the PDE. Does it blow up in finite time or not? That’s like the zeroth order version of the bigger question is, you know, what other kinds of solutions does it admit? Does it, you know– Are there sunsets and hurricanes and tornadoes and all the phenomenology that could exist? You know, existence and uniqueness is like the– the simplest baby step.
Steven Brunton
And that’s where it gets interesting to me, is even if there’s not a direct tangible use of this mathematical result in an engineering sense, it gets us that one step closer to understanding the nature of these equations and what is possible, which is very fundamentally interesting to us.
And that’s where it gets interesting to me, is even if there’s not a direct tangible use of this mathematical result in an engineering sense, it gets us that one step closer to understanding the nature of these equations and what is possible, which is very fundamentally interesting to us.
Alex Kontorovich
Could there be– could this solution that, that has the blow up be used somehow in a engineering application and, you know, you wanna drive it into this state and get some funny behavior that- … helps airplanes fly with less drag or something?
Could there be– could this solution that, that has the blow up be used somehow in a engineering application and, you know, you wanna drive it into this state and get some funny behavior that- … helps airplanes fly with less drag or something?
Steven Brunton
Yeah, I mean, I think in principle, a huge industry, a huge part of what we try to do is manipulate fluid flows, like bend them into our will, right? So if you watch a bird fly or an insect fly, they are shaping vortices and carefully funneling, you know, energy into structures for their, you know, objectives of their daily life to, like, perch on a rock or, you know, hunt. And we try to do the same thing. So flow control is one of the highest challenges. It’s very, very challenging. But all of our science fiction technology would be kind of accelerated if we had better ability to control these flows. And this proof is one very interesting construction of this kind of, you know, very specialized flow control in a way.
Yeah, I mean, I think in principle, a huge industry, a huge part of what we try to do is manipulate fluid flows, like bend them into our will, right? So if you watch a bird fly or an insect fly, they are shaping vortices and carefully funneling, you know, energy into structures for their, you know, objectives of their daily life to, like, perch on a rock or, you know, hunt. And we try to do the same thing. So flow control is one of the highest challenges. It’s very, very challenging. But all of our science fiction technology would be kind of accelerated if we had better ability to control these flows. And this proof is one very interesting construction of this kind of, you know, very specialized flow control in a way.
Alex Kontorovich
I’m reminded that Feynman was asked about intelligence, artificial intelligence in the ’70s. And he said something like, “The way that we solve problems with technology is radically different from how nature solves these problems. Look at birds, how birds fly and how airplanes fly.” He was exactly pointing to this. And it’s kind of interesting to think back to that comment now when we see what LLMs can do with theorem proving versus what human brains can do with theorem proving and all kinds of other applications. But it’s- … it’s interesting that he pointed exactly to this issue of how we’ve solved flight using technology and how different that is from nature’s solution to it. Our airplanes don’t flap.
I’m reminded that Feynman was asked about intelligence, artificial intelligence in the ’70s. And he said something like, “The way that we solve problems with technology is radically different from how nature solves these problems. Look at birds, how birds fly and how airplanes fly.” He was exactly pointing to this. And it’s kind of interesting to think back to that comment now when we see what LLMs can do with theorem proving versus what human brains can do with theorem proving and all kinds of other applications. But it’s- … it’s interesting that he pointed exactly to this issue of how we’ve solved flight using technology and how different that is from nature’s solution to it. Our airplanes don’t flap.
Steven Brunton
Now I wonder if birds have existential crises when they see planes flying.
Now I wonder if birds have existential crises when they see planes flying.
Alex Kontorovich
Exactly.
Exactly.
Steven Brunton
What am I even here for?
What am I even here for?
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah. Yeah. To get the worm. What are the different components of the Navier-Stokes equation? Can you– if you– can you dig in? Like, what does it take to describe fluid?
Yeah. Yeah. To get the worm. What are the different components of the Navier-Stokes equation? Can you– if you– can you dig in? Like, what does it take to describe fluid?
Steven Brunton
Yeah. So very, very basic, a fluid moves, and it moves differently in different places and at different points in time. And so the kind of basic building block of a fluid is the velocity field. So at every point in space, there is a velocity vector that tells you how that fluid is moving. You know, maybe it’s really fast here and slow here, and it creates a vortex. And it gets more interesting when the fluid velocity changes a lot over space. So like a tornado is a very rapidly changing fluid velocity field in both space and time. There’s pressures that are involved. So again, like the core of a tornado is low pressure. So pressures are kind of forcing this velocity field and causing it to move in the way it does.
Yeah. So very, very basic, a fluid moves, and it moves differently in different places and at different points in time. And so the kind of basic building block of a fluid is the velocity field. So at every point in space, there is a velocity vector that tells you how that fluid is moving. You know, maybe it’s really fast here and slow here, and it creates a vortex. And it gets more interesting when the fluid velocity changes a lot over space. So like a tornado is a very rapidly changing fluid velocity field in both space and time. There’s pressures that are involved. So again, like the core of a tornado is low pressure. So pressures are kind of forcing this velocity field and causing it to move in the way it does.
Steven Brunton
That’s the building block: is a velocity field and its pressures. And then the equations tell you how that velocity changes in time and in space according to kind of its own momentum. So fluid has momentum to carry itself. That’s, you know, gusts of wind. It has internal friction and resistance. That’s viscosity. So honey has more internal resistance than water, has more internal resistance than air. And then all of the external forces like heating and pressure and gravity and things like that. So each of those can be quantified as a term in this larger Navier-Stokes equation.
That’s the building block: is a velocity field and its pressures. And then the equations tell you how that velocity changes in time and in space according to kind of its own momentum. So fluid has momentum to carry itself. That’s, you know, gusts of wind. It has internal friction and resistance. That’s viscosity. So honey has more internal resistance than water, has more internal resistance than air. And then all of the external forces like heating and pressure and gravity and things like that. So each of those can be quantified as a term in this larger Navier-Stokes equation.
Alex Kontorovich
So speaking of external forces, can you describe the math side of this, of the Navier-Stokes with the blow up? What was the formulation of the problem, and what was actually proven, and why was it so hard?
So speaking of external forces, can you describe the math side of this, of the Navier-Stokes with the blow up? What was the formulation of the problem, and what was actually proven, and why was it so hard?
Steven Brunton
If you don’t have that internal friction, that viscosity, we have a strong suspicion that the equations can and will blow up under certain conditions. We have other examples, kind of simpler problems that are like Navier-Stokes that do blow up. So the simplest one is just a simple ordinary differential equation, if you don’t mind me taking a little tangent.
If you don’t have that internal friction, that viscosity, we have a strong suspicion that the equations can and will blow up under certain conditions. We have other examples, kind of simpler problems that are like Navier-Stokes that do blow up. So the simplest one is just a simple ordinary differential equation, if you don’t mind me taking a little tangent.
Alex Kontorovich
Let’s go.
Let’s go.
Steven Brunton
So X dot equals X squared. X is the state of my system. X dot just means the rate of change of X in time. And if that rate of change of X is growing proportional to X squared, that differential equation does blow up in finite time. So it just takes a quadratic nonlinearity. Think about if I have, you know, X dot equals X. This is– like X could be the population of bunnies, and we know bunnies like to populate. X dot equals X grows exponentially. You know, the state of my bunny population in time will grow exponentially. It’ll get bigger and bigger and bigger. It’ll double and double and double. But it won’t reach infinity until infinite time has passed. That’s just a normal exponential growth. That’s not finite time blow up. That’s X dot equals X.
So X dot equals X squared. X is the state of my system. X dot just means the rate of change of X in time. And if that rate of change of X is growing proportional to X squared, that differential equation does blow up in finite time. So it just takes a quadratic nonlinearity. Think about if I have, you know, X dot equals X. This is– like X could be the population of bunnies, and we know bunnies like to populate. X dot equals X grows exponentially. You know, the state of my bunny population in time will grow exponentially. It’ll get bigger and bigger and bigger. It’ll double and double and double. But it won’t reach infinity until infinite time has passed. That’s just a normal exponential growth. That’s not finite time blow up. That’s X dot equals X.
Steven Brunton
But if I take X dot equals X squared, that blows up in finite time. So that quadratic nonlinearity, that quadratic kind of feedback is enough to cause this equation to blow up. And you can, like– if you write this down, you know, you can solve this using kind of classic basic calculus techniques, and you get this finite time blow up. And so there’s a progression of partial differential equations that have the same behavior where a quadratic nonlinearity– And that’s really interesting is the Navier-Stokes equations, one of the terms, the convective term that tells how the fluid kind of moves itself with its own momentum, is a quadratic nonlinearity, just like X dot equals X squared. It’s kind of this self-motion.
But if I take X dot equals X squared, that blows up in finite time. So that quadratic nonlinearity, that quadratic kind of feedback is enough to cause this equation to blow up. And you can, like– if you write this down, you know, you can solve this using kind of classic basic calculus techniques, and you get this finite time blow up. And so there’s a progression of partial differential equations that have the same behavior where a quadratic nonlinearity– And that’s really interesting is the Navier-Stokes equations, one of the terms, the convective term that tells how the fluid kind of moves itself with its own momentum, is a quadratic nonlinearity, just like X dot equals X squared. It’s kind of this self-motion.
Steven Brunton
Without diffusion, without viscosity, we think that that should probably blow up to infinity in finite time, have this finite time blow up. But we don’t know if viscosity, if the kind of, you know, internal friction and resistance like honey has, always damps out those blowups before they can happen. My intuition as an engineer is of course they do. Like, if I have a flow where it’s, you know, accelerating, you know, to infinity, that should immediately diffuse into its neighbors. It should create this, like, diffusion into its neighboring fluid and kind of tamp down that growth.
Without diffusion, without viscosity, we think that that should probably blow up to infinity in finite time, have this finite time blow up. But we don’t know if viscosity, if the kind of, you know, internal friction and resistance like honey has, always damps out those blowups before they can happen. My intuition as an engineer is of course they do. Like, if I have a flow where it’s, you know, accelerating, you know, to infinity, that should immediately diffuse into its neighbors. It should create this, like, diffusion into its neighboring fluid and kind of tamp down that growth.
Steven Brunton
And so I think the math problem is essentially are there any edge cases, any initial configurations of the fluid where you perfectly orchestrate this thing so that it could actually accelerate to infinity in finite time? And then there’s two kind of technical versions of this. One is with no external forcing, and one is with smooth external forcing. Smooth being important because if the external forcing has singularities, then it’s kind of trivial. Like if I force it with a tornado, you know, an infinitely tight tornado, then of course it’s gonna blow up.
And so I think the math problem is essentially are there any edge cases, any initial configurations of the fluid where you perfectly orchestrate this thing so that it could actually accelerate to infinity in finite time? And then there’s two kind of technical versions of this. One is with no external forcing, and one is with smooth external forcing. Smooth being important because if the external forcing has singularities, then it’s kind of trivial. Like if I force it with a tornado, you know, an infinitely tight tornado, then of course it’s gonna blow up.
Lex Fridman
The problem as stated has smooth external forcing.
The problem as stated has smooth external forcing.
Steven Brunton
There’s four versions of the-
There’s four versions of the-
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Steven Brunton
… on the Clay, yeah, website. One of them being the forced version.
… on the Clay, yeah, website. One of them being the forced version.
Lex Fridman
And that’s the one that was proven.
And that’s the one that was proven.
Steven Brunton
And that’s the one that was proven.
And that’s the one that was proven.
Lex Fridman
Exactly what was proven, and what are some interesting things about the proof that you saw?
Exactly what was proven, and what are some interesting things about the proof that you saw?
Steven Brunton
Yeah. So what is proven is that there is this way of orchestrating a smooth kind of external forcing that perfectly cancels out various terms in the equation so that you get this vortex. This can only happen in three dimensions. This is really important, is that-
Yeah. So what is proven is that there is this way of orchestrating a smooth kind of external forcing that perfectly cancels out various terms in the equation so that you get this vortex. This can only happen in three dimensions. This is really important, is that-
Lex Fridman
We should probably say that we’re, we’ve been talking about three dimensions. There’s a big difference between 3D and 2D.
We should probably say that we’re, we’ve been talking about three dimensions. There’s a big difference between 3D and 2D.
Steven Brunton
Yeah. So I mean, when we talk about a fluid, we’re, we usually imagine it in 3D, but there are these kind of analogies or, or simplified 2D flows. Weather on Earth is pretty well approximated as a 2D flow.
Yeah. So I mean, when we talk about a fluid, we’re, we usually imagine it in 3D, but there are these kind of analogies or, or simplified 2D flows. Weather on Earth is pretty well approximated as a 2D flow.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, you’ve mentioned somewhere in a talk that I heard that hurricanes are kind of like modeled well in 2D and tornadoes are 3D, and I remember different sort of analogies that you were drawing there.
Yeah, you’ve mentioned somewhere in a talk that I heard that hurricanes are kind of like modeled well in 2D and tornadoes are 3D, and I remember different sort of analogies that you were drawing there.
Steven Brunton
Yeah. So one of the interesting phenomena in three-dimensional turbulence is you generally have this breakdown of big vortices into smaller vortices, into little itty bitty vortices until eventually they molecularly diffuse into heat. That’s kind of this three-dimensional turbulence cascade. In two dimensions, like weather on Earth, you actually get a reverse cascade, which is why hurricanes form. You actually have little vortices coalescing into medium vortices coalescing into bigger vortices. But so the AI proof of this kind of counterexample that you can have finite blowup basically creates this very, very specialized vortex that in the third dimension is stretching out and thinning it so that it can essentially become infinitely thin.
Yeah. So one of the interesting phenomena in three-dimensional turbulence is you generally have this breakdown of big vortices into smaller vortices, into little itty bitty vortices until eventually they molecularly diffuse into heat. That’s kind of this three-dimensional turbulence cascade. In two dimensions, like weather on Earth, you actually get a reverse cascade, which is why hurricanes form. You actually have little vortices coalescing into medium vortices coalescing into bigger vortices. But so the AI proof of this kind of counterexample that you can have finite blowup basically creates this very, very specialized vortex that in the third dimension is stretching out and thinning it so that it can essentially become infinitely thin.
Steven Brunton
The radius gets smaller and smaller and smaller as it stretches out kind of like a figure skater doing a spin. You pull your arms in, you go much, much faster. And there’s this very specialized kind of rate of contraction of this vortex so that the energy in the fluid still remains finite, but at this localized filament the flow kind of blows up and you get infinite vorticity. I was surprised when mathematicians before the AI proof started thinking it was going to be possible to find this counterexample.
The radius gets smaller and smaller and smaller as it stretches out kind of like a figure skater doing a spin. You pull your arms in, you go much, much faster. And there’s this very specialized kind of rate of contraction of this vortex so that the energy in the fluid still remains finite, but at this localized filament the flow kind of blows up and you get infinite vorticity. I was surprised when mathematicians before the AI proof started thinking it was going to be possible to find this counterexample.
Lex Fridman
Which only started maybe 15 years ago.
Which only started maybe 15 years ago.
Steven Brunton
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
So-
So-
Steven Brunton
It’s, like, relatively recent- … in the grand scheme of things. Yep.
It’s, like, relatively recent- … in the grand scheme of things. Yep.
Lex Fridman
Instead of looking for a solution, looking for a counterexample, yeah.
Instead of looking for a solution, looking for a counterexample, yeah.
Steven Brunton
Yep. ‘Cause all of our physical intuition tells us diffusion does solve the problem, and so it is, like, very physically counterintuitive.
Yep. ‘Cause all of our physical intuition tells us diffusion does solve the problem, and so it is, like, very physically counterintuitive.
Lex Fridman
In the mathematics world, that’s a really hard problem. Impressive to construct a counterexample. What does it teach to you as an engineer who’s stared and studied at a lot of different natural systems that are fluids? And maybe take that as a step towards what are the equivalent kind of hardness and harder problems yet to be solved in fluids.
In the mathematics world, that’s a really hard problem. Impressive to construct a counterexample. What does it teach to you as an engineer who’s stared and studied at a lot of different natural systems that are fluids? And maybe take that as a step towards what are the equivalent kind of hardness and harder problems yet to be solved in fluids.
Steven Brunton
So it’s a very important math result.
So it’s a very important math result.
Lex Fridman
Uh-oh.
Uh-oh.
Steven Brunton
I’ll say, like-
I’ll say, like-
Lex Fridman
But-
But-
Steven Brunton
… day-to-day engineering fluids and applied math kind of analysis of fluids is almost completely unchanged. Fluids are just as hard to simulate and predict today as they were a month ago or two months ago. And so when I’m trying to actually solve an engineering problem with a fluid, I wanna design an airplane wing or an artificial heart or whatever it is, I’m still having to simulate and predict and manipulate this flow in a very practical way that’s expensive in terms of supercomputer time and wind tunnel resources. And this mathematical theorem and proof are very interesting, but it operates at a regime that’s so non-physical that it doesn’t really affect my day-to-day engineering.
… day-to-day engineering fluids and applied math kind of analysis of fluids is almost completely unchanged. Fluids are just as hard to simulate and predict today as they were a month ago or two months ago. And so when I’m trying to actually solve an engineering problem with a fluid, I wanna design an airplane wing or an artificial heart or whatever it is, I’m still having to simulate and predict and manipulate this flow in a very practical way that’s expensive in terms of supercomputer time and wind tunnel resources. And this mathematical theorem and proof are very interesting, but it operates at a regime that’s so non-physical that it doesn’t really affect my day-to-day engineering.
Steven Brunton
There’s still– I don’t know, this is very pithy, but I like to say, you know, we solved the million-dollar math problem. There’s a trillion-dollar engineering problem, which is, like, how do you predict these things in a fast, efficient way and do this inverse design? That’s a much harder problem.
There’s still– I don’t know, this is very pithy, but I like to say, you know, we solved the million-dollar math problem. There’s a trillion-dollar engineering problem, which is, like, how do you predict these things in a fast, efficient way and do this inverse design? That’s a much harder problem.
Lex Fridman
And you say it’s a trillion dollar because that literally-
And you say it’s a trillion dollar because that literally-
Steven Brunton
Literally.
Literally.
Lex Fridman
… if you solve some of these problems, that’s how much money you’ll make, not ’cause it’s a prize, but, like, there’s industries.
… if you solve some of these problems, that’s how much money you’ll make, not ’cause it’s a prize, but, like, there’s industries.
Steven Brunton
Yeah. And we could say, you know, trillion dollars of possible benefit to humanity of, like, better, faster solutions, lower drag, less emissions, you know, all of it. We have like transportation, defense, health, energy, all of these have, you know, fluids at the very core technology. And so I think those problems are still very hard. And this math result is important in the sense I was talking about earlier, that we don’t know the fundamental character of what is possible in these equations. We don’t even know if the solutions exist. That’s like so fundamental. This is like a baby step towards a much bigger human goal of understanding what’s in an equation in a more practical sense.
Yeah. And we could say, you know, trillion dollars of possible benefit to humanity of, like, better, faster solutions, lower drag, less emissions, you know, all of it. We have like transportation, defense, health, energy, all of these have, you know, fluids at the very core technology. And so I think those problems are still very hard. And this math result is important in the sense I was talking about earlier, that we don’t know the fundamental character of what is possible in these equations. We don’t even know if the solutions exist. That’s like so fundamental. This is like a baby step towards a much bigger human goal of understanding what’s in an equation in a more practical sense.
Lex Fridman
Can you speak to some of the maybe beautiful, fascinating phenomena in the space of fluids that you’ve been thinking about? You mentioned turbulence. What are the big puzzles to sort of solve in this space to understand? You’ve mentioned drag, like air, fluid. What are like the big Millennium Prize type problems that people are thinking about?
Can you speak to some of the maybe beautiful, fascinating phenomena in the space of fluids that you’ve been thinking about? You mentioned turbulence. What are the big puzzles to sort of solve in this space to understand? You’ve mentioned drag, like air, fluid. What are like the big Millennium Prize type problems that people are thinking about?
Steven Brunton
I mean, there’s so many. You can break them down into a few categories. So turbulence is very hard because it’s multi-scale.
I mean, there’s so many. You can break them down into a few categories. So turbulence is very hard because it’s multi-scale.
Lex Fridman
What is turbulence?
What is turbulence?
Steven Brunton
Turbulence is this phenomena that when you have a complex fluid roiling or mixing and moving kind of like a Da Vinci’s– He has these beautiful drawings of fluids at all of these different scales. All of the scales matter. The big vortices and the medium vortices and the little vortices, all of them actually matter to predict the lift and the drag and the thing. So the gas in this room is a great counterexample. It’s the opposite of turbulence. It is complicated. The molecules are all moving around in a very frenetic way, and there’s a lot of molecules. But that, you know, ten to the twenty-three number of gas particles, all of those individual configurations don’t matter.
Turbulence is this phenomena that when you have a complex fluid roiling or mixing and moving kind of like a Da Vinci’s– He has these beautiful drawings of fluids at all of these different scales. All of the scales matter. The big vortices and the medium vortices and the little vortices, all of them actually matter to predict the lift and the drag and the thing. So the gas in this room is a great counterexample. It’s the opposite of turbulence. It is complicated. The molecules are all moving around in a very frenetic way, and there’s a lot of molecules. But that, you know, ten to the twenty-three number of gas particles, all of those individual configurations don’t matter.
Steven Brunton
We know from thermodynamics, this is like the great success of classical physics, is that there’s a small handful of numbers that actually determine how this gas behaves, you know, temperature, pressure, density. That simple description doesn’t exist for turbulent fluids, for the flow over a wing, the flow inside your heart, for, you know, any– for the flow on a river. All of the scales actually matter. All of the numbers in that simulation actually matter to predict the next, you know, behavior to predict what’s gonna happen. And that makes it fundamentally challenging. So this is actually a great AI problem, is, is there a coordinate system? Is there a set of numbers just like we have for gases, you know, temperature, pressure, density?
We know from thermodynamics, this is like the great success of classical physics, is that there’s a small handful of numbers that actually determine how this gas behaves, you know, temperature, pressure, density. That simple description doesn’t exist for turbulent fluids, for the flow over a wing, the flow inside your heart, for, you know, any– for the flow on a river. All of the scales actually matter. All of the numbers in that simulation actually matter to predict the next, you know, behavior to predict what’s gonna happen. And that makes it fundamentally challenging. So this is actually a great AI problem, is, is there a coordinate system? Is there a set of numbers just like we have for gases, you know, temperature, pressure, density?
Steven Brunton
Is there a set of numbers or some representation of a fluid, of a turbulent fluid that allow it to be simply described in a way that is useful for engineering to build, you know, motors and engines and just like we have for, for gas dynamics?
Is there a set of numbers or some representation of a fluid, of a turbulent fluid that allow it to be simply described in a way that is useful for engineering to build, you know, motors and engines and just like we have for, for gas dynamics?
Lex Fridman
So then the interesting question, if it’s a problem for AI, and AI is listening, I’m sure. The solution to that problem, would it– would the path lie through mathematics or through having the AI system sit there and watch some fluid for a while?
So then the interesting question, if it’s a problem for AI, and AI is listening, I’m sure. The solution to that problem, would it– would the path lie through mathematics or through having the AI system sit there and watch some fluid for a while?
Steven Brunton
I think yes to both.
I think yes to both.
Lex Fridman
‘Cause fish, they figured it out.
‘Cause fish, they figured it out.
Steven Brunton
They figured it out. Well, so I think you have the right keyword as coordinates. And I, and I– So that’s kinda why I said both. And I’m not trying to be like trite, but all of our great physics breakthroughs were predated by a coordinate transformation. So Newton’s F equals ma came after we put the sun at the center of the universe instead of the Earth, right? You had to do that coordinate transform first. So I think what– the way I see it is we need to take all of this data, these simulations, these observations of fluids, and what we’re looking for is a simple coordinate system so that the description of that fluid becomes very simple and generalizable, beautiful in a physical sense.
They figured it out. Well, so I think you have the right keyword as coordinates. And I, and I– So that’s kinda why I said both. And I’m not trying to be like trite, but all of our great physics breakthroughs were predated by a coordinate transformation. So Newton’s F equals ma came after we put the sun at the center of the universe instead of the Earth, right? You had to do that coordinate transform first. So I think what– the way I see it is we need to take all of this data, these simulations, these observations of fluids, and what we’re looking for is a simple coordinate system so that the description of that fluid becomes very simple and generalizable, beautiful in a physical sense.
Steven Brunton
And that is both a brute force, you know, get a lot of data, try a bunch of different coordinate transformations and representations until you find the simplest one that generalizes the best. But there’s also a lot of deep mathematics in what the form of that coordinate transformation might take. In general, if you find a question that really smart people asked, you know, in the ’70s and ’80s, but they hit a wall computationally, that’s very fertile ground right now. So like we know what the form of these coordinate systems probably should take from some fundamental principles. We’ve just never been able to write them down. They’re too complicated to write down.
And that is both a brute force, you know, get a lot of data, try a bunch of different coordinate transformations and representations until you find the simplest one that generalizes the best. But there’s also a lot of deep mathematics in what the form of that coordinate transformation might take. In general, if you find a question that really smart people asked, you know, in the ’70s and ’80s, but they hit a wall computationally, that’s very fertile ground right now. So like we know what the form of these coordinate systems probably should take from some fundamental principles. We’ve just never been able to write them down. They’re too complicated to write down.
Steven Brunton
That’s like a perfect problem for AI is, you know, now let’s give it a lot more data, a lot more compute, and see if we can start learning these transformations we know should exist.
That’s like a perfect problem for AI is, you know, now let’s give it a lot more data, a lot more compute, and see if we can start learning these transformations we know should exist.
Lex Fridman
Just so I understand, the formation of vortexes, so that’s like a, like, little like tornadoes.
Just so I understand, the formation of vortexes, so that’s like a, like, little like tornadoes.
Steven Brunton
Little tornadoes.
Little tornadoes.
Lex Fridman
Their formation is– Is that part tricky to understand?
Their formation is– Is that part tricky to understand?
Steven Brunton
Yeah, absolutely. And it’s beautiful too. Like, I love watching these videos of, you know, if you shoot two vortices together, they’ll, you know, influence each other and then merge in these very interesting ways, that you have like a red vortex and a blue vortex, and you can see where they merge and join. But they also stretch and fold and, you know, turbulence is chaotic, so the trajectories get tangled like spaghetti. It’s not random. There’s a huge amount of structure, but it is very multi-scale, very, very tangled.
Yeah, absolutely. And it’s beautiful too. Like, I love watching these videos of, you know, if you shoot two vortices together, they’ll, you know, influence each other and then merge in these very interesting ways, that you have like a red vortex and a blue vortex, and you can see where they merge and join. But they also stretch and fold and, you know, turbulence is chaotic, so the trajectories get tangled like spaghetti. It’s not random. There’s a huge amount of structure, but it is very multi-scale, very, very tangled.
How nature computes
Ankur Moitra
So one of the things I would wonder, you know, scientifically, I mean, these are really interesting problems, and that was a great explanation. So I’m always curious about what computational problems nature can solve already, right? And there are a lot of examples of this. You know, there’s a famous one with like slime mold finding shortest paths and mazes. In fact, some of the precursors to Navier-Stokes were, you know, like some of Terry Tao’s work on showing that you can have blowup for Navier-Stokes-like equations because they can simulate Turing machines. So I guess I would also wonder what sorts of computational tasks these computations with vortices colliding can do and how that imposes limits on what sorts of coordinate systems ought to exist.
So one of the things I would wonder, you know, scientifically, I mean, these are really interesting problems, and that was a great explanation. So I’m always curious about what computational problems nature can solve already, right? And there are a lot of examples of this. You know, there’s a famous one with like slime mold finding shortest paths and mazes. In fact, some of the precursors to Navier-Stokes were, you know, like some of Terry Tao’s work on showing that you can have blowup for Navier-Stokes-like equations because they can simulate Turing machines. So I guess I would also wonder what sorts of computational tasks these computations with vortices colliding can do and how that imposes limits on what sorts of coordinate systems ought to exist.
Ankur Moitra
‘Cause, you know, you mentioned PV equals nRT. That’s an amazing dimensionality reduction-
‘Cause, you know, you mentioned PV equals nRT. That’s an amazing dimensionality reduction-
Steven Brunton
Mm-hmm. Yep.
Mm-hmm. Yep.
Ankur Moitra
… because you don’t keep track of all of these positions and velocities of particles, but there’s just, you know, a small list of numbers that describes a meta state, and that’s it. But if I really had a tremendous reduction, you know, like that in the case of turbulence, then it would seem to me very difficult to compute very interesting things too.
… because you don’t keep track of all of these positions and velocities of particles, but there’s just, you know, a small list of numbers that describes a meta state, and that’s it. But if I really had a tremendous reduction, you know, like that in the case of turbulence, then it would seem to me very difficult to compute very interesting things too.
Steven Brunton
Could it be like the Game of Life, where you have this very simple cellular automata system, and it’s a universal Turing machine, and you can cook up whatever behavior you want in it?
Could it be like the Game of Life, where you have this very simple cellular automata system, and it’s a universal Turing machine, and you can cook up whatever behavior you want in it?
Ankur Moitra
Yeah, that’s, that’s right. I mean, so Game of Life, a lot of times people think about, you know, what are minimal rules to have all of these exotic behaviors, and it’s really shocking how small the rules need to be to get that, right? But I guess, you know, I’m a theoretical computer scientist. One of the biggest exports from our field is really the algorithmic lens.
Yeah, that’s, that’s right. I mean, so Game of Life, a lot of times people think about, you know, what are minimal rules to have all of these exotic behaviors, and it’s really shocking how small the rules need to be to get that, right? But I guess, you know, I’m a theoretical computer scientist. One of the biggest exports from our field is really the algorithmic lens.
Ankur Moitra
So it’s not just about, you know, computation where you have a well-defined problem and a laptop and you wanna solve it, but it’s also about, you know, computation in the natural world, you know, and what that teaches us about what the rules of nature might be. So, you know, some famous examples of this are things like equilibria in multiplayer games, and Nash equilibrium is a great solution concept. But of course, the fact that it’s hard to compute Nash equilibrium, you know, throws into question, is it really a universal mechanism that explains how people play games?
So it’s not just about, you know, computation where you have a well-defined problem and a laptop and you wanna solve it, but it’s also about, you know, computation in the natural world, you know, and what that teaches us about what the rules of nature might be. So, you know, some famous examples of this are things like equilibria in multiplayer games, and Nash equilibrium is a great solution concept. But of course, the fact that it’s hard to compute Nash equilibrium, you know, throws into question, is it really a universal mechanism that explains how people play games?
Ankur Moitra
There was this amazing quote by Kamal Jain that I really like, which is, “If my laptop can’t find it, then neither can the market.” And, you know, to me, what’s really exciting is the nexus of a lot of these different perspectives. You know, what– when you were describing it, it sounded to me like there are very interesting computational problems under the hood, and that one can kind of get a dual perspective on these things by thinking about how that computation imposes limits on what a good coordinate system ought to look like.
There was this amazing quote by Kamal Jain that I really like, which is, “If my laptop can’t find it, then neither can the market.” And, you know, to me, what’s really exciting is the nexus of a lot of these different perspectives. You know, what– when you were describing it, it sounded to me like there are very interesting computational problems under the hood, and that one can kind of get a dual perspective on these things by thinking about how that computation imposes limits on what a good coordinate system ought to look like.
Steven Brunton
So I think that’s a really nice way of framing the problem. And I would take two extreme examples. So Earth’s weather and climate systems are actually just complex. They– all the scales do matter. The weather in this zip code matters to me. You know, everything matters. All the variables matter. And you’re right. Like, if I over-reduce that system to, you know, five numbers, then I lose the descriptive capability of what I actually care about. That’s one extreme. The other extreme, let’s think about how, you know, a moth flies or a butterfly or a fruit fly. They are proof by existence that you can interact with an extremely complicated turbulent flow and do very advanced engineering control.
So I think that’s a really nice way of framing the problem. And I would take two extreme examples. So Earth’s weather and climate systems are actually just complex. They– all the scales do matter. The weather in this zip code matters to me. You know, everything matters. All the variables matter. And you’re right. Like, if I over-reduce that system to, you know, five numbers, then I lose the descriptive capability of what I actually care about. That’s one extreme. The other extreme, let’s think about how, you know, a moth flies or a butterfly or a fruit fly. They are proof by existence that you can interact with an extremely complicated turbulent flow and do very advanced engineering control.
Steven Brunton
They can control their forces and moments in gusts, in rain. They can live very rich lives, and they presumably don’t have a PhD in fluid dynamics- … or know the Navier-Stokes. They’re probably not running supercomputer simulations. There might be five or six numbers that actually matter to their daily life of maintaining a leading-edge vortex and, you know, stalling their wings to perch and to land. And those are kind of two extreme examples, and I really want to be able to handle both of those. We want to be able to handle the full complexity of truly complex systems, and we want to be able to distill down the absolute bare minimum essentials for fast decisions in those kind of insect extreme cases.
They can control their forces and moments in gusts, in rain. They can live very rich lives, and they presumably don’t have a PhD in fluid dynamics- … or know the Navier-Stokes. They’re probably not running supercomputer simulations. There might be five or six numbers that actually matter to their daily life of maintaining a leading-edge vortex and, you know, stalling their wings to perch and to land. And those are kind of two extreme examples, and I really want to be able to handle both of those. We want to be able to handle the full complexity of truly complex systems, and we want to be able to distill down the absolute bare minimum essentials for fast decisions in those kind of insect extreme cases.
Steven Brunton
And biological flyers still dramatically outperform, you know, human-designed fluid systems in many regimes, so we still have a lot to learn about these simple systems.
And biological flyers still dramatically outperform, you know, human-designed fluid systems in many regimes, so we still have a lot to learn about these simple systems.
Ankur Moitra
So maybe we’re, like, veering into research now, but, you know- … to me, it’s always amazing how nature not only solves very hard optimization problems, it seems to find very robust solutions. And I’m always struck by the fact that, you know, when we model it, we tend to model it assuming we have full knowledge, you know, about what the boundary and initial conditions are for things like Navier-Stokes. But when a bird flies, you know, it doesn’t know all of that. And to some extent, you know, modeling things with uncertainty is really how you reframe the optimization problem to get very, you know, rich and robust solutions. And it’s kind of amazing to me how a lot of everyday examples sort of fit into this.
So maybe we’re, like, veering into research now, but, you know- … to me, it’s always amazing how nature not only solves very hard optimization problems, it seems to find very robust solutions. And I’m always struck by the fact that, you know, when we model it, we tend to model it assuming we have full knowledge, you know, about what the boundary and initial conditions are for things like Navier-Stokes. But when a bird flies, you know, it doesn’t know all of that. And to some extent, you know, modeling things with uncertainty is really how you reframe the optimization problem to get very, you know, rich and robust solutions. And it’s kind of amazing to me how a lot of everyday examples sort of fit into this.
Ankur Moitra
I remember, you know, I’m a big baseball fan, and I remember reading a math paper about baseball that when you’ve got an outfielder, you know, once the ball has been hit, a lot of stuff is known. You know, the velocity, the trajectory. You would think the outfielder would just take a straight-line path to where they expected the ball to be. But when you observe outfielders, they don’t take straight-line paths. They take a slight curve to it. So why is that? You know, at least one way to wrap your head around it is that that’s actually a very robust strategy, ’cause when you’re taking a curved path, you can continually reevaluate-
I remember, you know, I’m a big baseball fan, and I remember reading a math paper about baseball that when you’ve got an outfielder, you know, once the ball has been hit, a lot of stuff is known. You know, the velocity, the trajectory. You would think the outfielder would just take a straight-line path to where they expected the ball to be. But when you observe outfielders, they don’t take straight-line paths. They take a slight curve to it. So why is that? You know, at least one way to wrap your head around it is that that’s actually a very robust strategy, ’cause when you’re taking a curved path, you can continually reevaluate-
Ankur Moitra
… the trajectory of the ball and then adjust as needed. So there are very interesting solutions that nature finds, but it’s not always obvious what is the right formulation for the optimization problem in the first place, and sometimes modeling it in the case of uncertainty so that you can design solutions that are robust to the fact that you don’t have full system knowledge seems to be an important piece of the picture.
… the trajectory of the ball and then adjust as needed. So there are very interesting solutions that nature finds, but it’s not always obvious what is the right formulation for the optimization problem in the first place, and sometimes modeling it in the case of uncertainty so that you can design solutions that are robust to the fact that you don’t have full system knowledge seems to be an important piece of the picture.
Steven Brunton
So there’s a fun aside related to this. Insects in particular don’t have the ability to measure their full flow field. They can react to gusts of wind faster than the information that hits their wings, goes to their brain and back to their muscles. So researchers have studied this for decades in biology. And what they’ve found is that there are strain-sensitive neurons embedded on the wings, maybe a few dozen to a few hundred of these in very stereotypical locations. So brother fruit flies will have the same locations of these strain-sensitive neurons, and those strain-sensitive neurons fire when the wing bends in a certain temporal pattern.
So there’s a fun aside related to this. Insects in particular don’t have the ability to measure their full flow field. They can react to gusts of wind faster than the information that hits their wings, goes to their brain and back to their muscles. So researchers have studied this for decades in biology. And what they’ve found is that there are strain-sensitive neurons embedded on the wings, maybe a few dozen to a few hundred of these in very stereotypical locations. So brother fruit flies will have the same locations of these strain-sensitive neurons, and those strain-sensitive neurons fire when the wing bends in a certain temporal pattern.
Steven Brunton
So it gets hit by a gust of wind, the wing bends, neurons fire, and a local computation is happening in that shoulder muscle of this insect that goes directly back and corrects robustly based on partial information of a system it doesn’t have equations for that is nonlinear and turbulent. So it’s like, again, proof by existence- … of exactly what you’re saying is maybe the robust strategy of actually relying on partial information and uncertainty. They can do more than we can at this point with way less information.
So it gets hit by a gust of wind, the wing bends, neurons fire, and a local computation is happening in that shoulder muscle of this insect that goes directly back and corrects robustly based on partial information of a system it doesn’t have equations for that is nonlinear and turbulent. So it’s like, again, proof by existence- … of exactly what you’re saying is maybe the robust strategy of actually relying on partial information and uncertainty. They can do more than we can at this point with way less information.
Ankur Moitra
Yeah. I have a couple of, I apologize, pothead thoughts, ’cause Alex mentioned black holes. I have a fun thought that maybe the singularity observed with a blowup in Navier-Stokes equations comes into play when we’re, as opposed to airplane wings on Earth, we’re traveling through two connected black holes in a warp drive that we figure out, and then there’s the flow control of spacetime, and that becomes relevant because now you’re in a black hole, hence the singularity. This is the– For people just listening to this, the look Alex just gave me, it hurts my soul. Okay. So moving on to the next topic.
Yeah. I have a couple of, I apologize, pothead thoughts, ’cause Alex mentioned black holes. I have a fun thought that maybe the singularity observed with a blowup in Navier-Stokes equations comes into play when we’re, as opposed to airplane wings on Earth, we’re traveling through two connected black holes in a warp drive that we figure out, and then there’s the flow control of spacetime, and that becomes relevant because now you’re in a black hole, hence the singularity. This is the– For people just listening to this, the look Alex just gave me, it hurts my soul. Okay. So moving on to the next topic.
Alex Kontorovich
But the forcing, you’d need the black hole vortex to also be forced at exactly the right-
But the forcing, you’d need the black hole vortex to also be forced at exactly the right-
Ankur Moitra
The, yeah, the force. Where’s the force? I mean, at that point-
The, yeah, the force. Where’s the force? I mean, at that point-
Alex Kontorovich
How do you… Yeah. You could try to ride it. Yeah. There’s a way– You can make something out of this.
How do you… Yeah. You could try to ride it. Yeah. There’s a way– You can make something out of this.
Ankur Moitra
There’s some non-zero probability that future ass that will listen to this, that guy is the one time he said something that was actually correct. Okay. If it’s okay, a quick bathroom break.
There’s some non-zero probability that future ass that will listen to this, that guy is the one time he said something that was actually correct. Okay. If it’s okay, a quick bathroom break.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah. Sounds good.
Yeah. Sounds good.
Unique Games Conjecture and complexity theory
Ankur Moitra
Cool. Ankur, one of my favorite topics is theoretical computer science. You’re one of the world experts in many of its problems. So I’d love to ask you about one of the big problems that’s been solved in this OpenAI drop, which is the Unique Games Conjecture. Can you give people an intuition about what this problem is, why it’s a big deal, and what are some aspects of the proof that are interesting? Yes, I’d love to. So let me give you a little bit of a background. So let’s start off with complexity theory one oh one. So one of the most important problems in theoretical computer science is the satisfiability problem. So the thing to keep in your mind is imagine you’ve got variables X one to XN, and they can take on either true or false values.
Cool. Ankur, one of my favorite topics is theoretical computer science. You’re one of the world experts in many of its problems. So I’d love to ask you about one of the big problems that’s been solved in this OpenAI drop, which is the Unique Games Conjecture. Can you give people an intuition about what this problem is, why it’s a big deal, and what are some aspects of the proof that are interesting? Yes, I’d love to. So let me give you a little bit of a background. So let’s start off with complexity theory one oh one. So one of the most important problems in theoretical computer science is the satisfiability problem. So the thing to keep in your mind is imagine you’ve got variables X one to XN, and they can take on either true or false values.
Ankur Moitra
And what I’m gonna do is I’m gonna create a big formula out of them, and usually, the way we do this is with an and of ors. So I start off with a clause that’s, you know, an or, X one or not X three or X seven. So depending on my assignment, that clause might be satisfied as long as at least one of those things is true. And then I take the and of many of these different clauses together. And the question is, if I give you that formula, called a conjunctive normal form formula, you know, can you find a satisfying assignment? So can you find an assignment of X one, X two, up to XN, setting them either to be equal to true or false, so that all of those or clauses are on, so that the entire formula evaluates to true?
And what I’m gonna do is I’m gonna create a big formula out of them, and usually, the way we do this is with an and of ors. So I start off with a clause that’s, you know, an or, X one or not X three or X seven. So depending on my assignment, that clause might be satisfied as long as at least one of those things is true. And then I take the and of many of these different clauses together. And the question is, if I give you that formula, called a conjunctive normal form formula, you know, can you find a satisfying assignment? So can you find an assignment of X one, X two, up to XN, setting them either to be equal to true or false, so that all of those or clauses are on, so that the entire formula evaluates to true?
Ankur Moitra
So this is the canonical example of a problem that’s easy to check someone else’s answer, but it might be hard to find an answer yourself. So if you told me that it’s satisfiable, all I would do is I’d ask you, “Okay, give me the satisfying assignment.” You tell me what X one is set to, what X two is set to, and I just go clause by clause and check to make sure that you really have satisfied everything. Now, the, you know, the central problem in theoretical computer science is the P versus NP problem. So are problems that are easy to check, is it easy to find their solutions to? And the presumption in our field is that no, it’s not easy, and that’s the basis you know, of a lot of things like cryptography and e-commerce and what have you.
So this is the canonical example of a problem that’s easy to check someone else’s answer, but it might be hard to find an answer yourself. So if you told me that it’s satisfiable, all I would do is I’d ask you, “Okay, give me the satisfying assignment.” You tell me what X one is set to, what X two is set to, and I just go clause by clause and check to make sure that you really have satisfied everything. Now, the, you know, the central problem in theoretical computer science is the P versus NP problem. So are problems that are easy to check, is it easy to find their solutions to? And the presumption in our field is that no, it’s not easy, and that’s the basis you know, of a lot of things like cryptography and e-commerce and what have you.
Ankur Moitra
Now, really, the starting point for getting to something like the unique games conjecture is something called the PCP theorem. So this was a landmark result proved in the nineties. It actually was such a big deal that it made the front page of The New York Times. And the crux of it is really this idea that it’s even robustly hard to fool a verifier. So you start off with a formula, and either it’s satisfiable or not satisfiable, right? And what does that mean? If it’s satisfiable, you can write down an assignment, and I can check one by one that the entire thing evaluates to true. But if it’s not satisfiable, that means someplace you’re lying.
Now, really, the starting point for getting to something like the unique games conjecture is something called the PCP theorem. So this was a landmark result proved in the nineties. It actually was such a big deal that it made the front page of The New York Times. And the crux of it is really this idea that it’s even robustly hard to fool a verifier. So you start off with a formula, and either it’s satisfiable or not satisfiable, right? And what does that mean? If it’s satisfiable, you can write down an assignment, and I can check one by one that the entire thing evaluates to true. But if it’s not satisfiable, that means someplace you’re lying.
Ankur Moitra
You write down this purported satisfying assignment, and when I go clause by clause, I’m quickly gonna find one clause that is not true, and that invalidates the whole thing. And I say, “Aha, I caught you. It’s not actually a satisfying assignment.” So the idea behind things like probabilistically checkable proofs, without getting into a lot of the technical definitions, the idea is really gap amplification. So can you start off with a formula that is hard to decide whether it’s satisfiable or not? And can you engineer a new, maybe much bigger formula that’s robustly easy to check in the sense that if it’s satisfiable, it’ll still be satisfiable. You can write down an assignment, and it’ll be fine.
You write down this purported satisfying assignment, and when I go clause by clause, I’m quickly gonna find one clause that is not true, and that invalidates the whole thing. And I say, “Aha, I caught you. It’s not actually a satisfying assignment.” So the idea behind things like probabilistically checkable proofs, without getting into a lot of the technical definitions, the idea is really gap amplification. So can you start off with a formula that is hard to decide whether it’s satisfiable or not? And can you engineer a new, maybe much bigger formula that’s robustly easy to check in the sense that if it’s satisfiable, it’ll still be satisfiable. You can write down an assignment, and it’ll be fine.
Ankur Moitra
But if it’s not, I should actually be able to just flip a few coins, query random variables, check a random clause, and with good probability find that you’re lying. So the point is that with very sublinear inspection, with only constant amount of inspection, I can find that you’re cheating. So this was a momentous result in theoretical computer science because it laid the foundation really for what’s called hardness of approximation. So a lot of algorithms and complexity theory is what do you do when you’re faced with problems that are genuinely hard to solve? And, you know, one of the things we do is we try to approximately solve them. So maybe we can’t find an assignment if there is one that satisfies all the clauses, but can we find one that satisfies many of the clauses?
But if it’s not, I should actually be able to just flip a few coins, query random variables, check a random clause, and with good probability find that you’re lying. So the point is that with very sublinear inspection, with only constant amount of inspection, I can find that you’re cheating. So this was a momentous result in theoretical computer science because it laid the foundation really for what’s called hardness of approximation. So a lot of algorithms and complexity theory is what do you do when you’re faced with problems that are genuinely hard to solve? And, you know, one of the things we do is we try to approximately solve them. So maybe we can’t find an assignment if there is one that satisfies all the clauses, but can we find one that satisfies many of the clauses?
Ankur Moitra
How large a fraction of the clauses? Now, even there, we would expect problems to become computationally hard after a certain point. It should be that it’s not just that, you know, deciding whether it’s completely satisfiable or not completely satisfiable is hard, but maybe even deciding is it 100% satisfiable or is it only 99% satisfiable. The best case over all assignments satisfy at most 99% of the clauses. That too might end up being hard to decide. So these are what probabilistically checkable proofs give us. In places where we knew that the optimization problem was hard, they tell us that it’s even hard to approximate. And the Unique Games Conjecture is a strengthening of the ordinary PCP theorem because it has to do with a certain type of label cover instance.
How large a fraction of the clauses? Now, even there, we would expect problems to become computationally hard after a certain point. It should be that it’s not just that, you know, deciding whether it’s completely satisfiable or not completely satisfiable is hard, but maybe even deciding is it 100% satisfiable or is it only 99% satisfiable. The best case over all assignments satisfy at most 99% of the clauses. That too might end up being hard to decide. So these are what probabilistically checkable proofs give us. In places where we knew that the optimization problem was hard, they tell us that it’s even hard to approximate. And the Unique Games Conjecture is a strengthening of the ordinary PCP theorem because it has to do with a certain type of label cover instance.
Ankur Moitra
It’s a bit technical to go into the details, but the point is that if that version of a probabilistically checkable proof were true, it would have this great organizing effect where it would turn out that for a huge swath of problems, we would actually know what is the best approximation algorithm, and it would be something very simple. So when I started off in the field, the Unique Games Conjecture had been posed, you know, a few years before that, and there was still a lot of debate about whether it should be true or false. And, you know, people worked hard to try and give, you know, proofs of it. People worked hard to try and disprove it.
It’s a bit technical to go into the details, but the point is that if that version of a probabilistically checkable proof were true, it would have this great organizing effect where it would turn out that for a huge swath of problems, we would actually know what is the best approximation algorithm, and it would be something very simple. So when I started off in the field, the Unique Games Conjecture had been posed, you know, a few years before that, and there was still a lot of debate about whether it should be true or false. And, you know, people worked hard to try and give, you know, proofs of it. People worked hard to try and disprove it.
Ankur Moitra
There was this amazing time period, maybe in the 2010s, where there was quite a lot of back and forth and, you know, there would be new results came out that people’s opinions would change whether they believed unique games or not. I like this quip. I forget who said it, so I can’t properly attribute it, but someone told me, “You know, maybe God’s gonna decide whether it’s true or false based on which side is working harder.” Because it really seemed to change year to year. And you know, one of the results, one of the headlining results in the OpenAI drop of proofs was that the Unique Games Conjecture is true. Now, I should mention that this is not without spectacular human progress on it.
There was this amazing time period, maybe in the 2010s, where there was quite a lot of back and forth and, you know, there would be new results came out that people’s opinions would change whether they believed unique games or not. I like this quip. I forget who said it, so I can’t properly attribute it, but someone told me, “You know, maybe God’s gonna decide whether it’s true or false based on which side is working harder.” Because it really seemed to change year to year. And you know, one of the results, one of the headlining results in the OpenAI drop of proofs was that the Unique Games Conjecture is true. Now, I should mention that this is not without spectacular human progress on it.
Ankur Moitra
So one of my colleagues at MIT, one of my colleagues at IAS, they both contributed, among other people, to a lot of the major strides. So Dor Minzer and Irit Dinur, they proved a weaker version called the Two-to-One Games Theorem, and this really was a, you know, shot heard round the world in theoretical computer science because at that point, I think a lot of people weren’t sure what was a path forward for Unique Games Conjecture, and I think their work really gave a viable path forward to something that was in the vicinity of unique games. So it sounded like, you know, maybe humans could get there with another 10, 20 years. But, you know, just when OpenAI released the results, it turns out that the Unique Games Conjecture is actually true.
So one of my colleagues at MIT, one of my colleagues at IAS, they both contributed, among other people, to a lot of the major strides. So Dor Minzer and Irit Dinur, they proved a weaker version called the Two-to-One Games Theorem, and this really was a, you know, shot heard round the world in theoretical computer science because at that point, I think a lot of people weren’t sure what was a path forward for Unique Games Conjecture, and I think their work really gave a viable path forward to something that was in the vicinity of unique games. So it sounded like, you know, maybe humans could get there with another 10, 20 years. But, you know, just when OpenAI released the results, it turns out that the Unique Games Conjecture is actually true.
Ankur Moitra
So this is quite remarkable because you know, at some points I guess I did find myself on the side of the doubters because Unique Games just sounded too nice to be true because, you know, a lot of work like Prasad Raghavendra’s work, it implies optimal hardness of approximation for so many different types of constraint satisfaction problems that the conclusion just looked to me too strong to be true.
So this is quite remarkable because you know, at some points I guess I did find myself on the side of the doubters because Unique Games just sounded too nice to be true because, you know, a lot of work like Prasad Raghavendra’s work, it implies optimal hardness of approximation for so many different types of constraint satisfaction problems that the conclusion just looked to me too strong to be true.
Lex Fridman
What did you feel when you found out that night?
What did you feel when you found out that night?
Ankur Moitra
Okay. Well, for starters, there were already rumors, you know, in the weeks leading up that OpenAI had solved the Unique Games Conjecture and that it was a true. And these weren’t even just completely arbitrary rumors. One of my colleagues, Dor Minzer, he actually posted a paper where he wrote something in the footnote at the bottom that, you know, “We would have liked to polish this paper more, but because of the rumors that were going around, we feel the need to put out our approach sooner rather than later.” So for me, it was in some sense a bit of a relief that the results were finally out there. Now they’re not very readable papers. It’s not like you can point to them and really quickly identify what’s a new key idea.
Okay. Well, for starters, there were already rumors, you know, in the weeks leading up that OpenAI had solved the Unique Games Conjecture and that it was a true. And these weren’t even just completely arbitrary rumors. One of my colleagues, Dor Minzer, he actually posted a paper where he wrote something in the footnote at the bottom that, you know, “We would have liked to polish this paper more, but because of the rumors that were going around, we feel the need to put out our approach sooner rather than later.” So for me, it was in some sense a bit of a relief that the results were finally out there. Now they’re not very readable papers. It’s not like you can point to them and really quickly identify what’s a new key idea.
Ankur Moitra
But I’m glad that they’re out there because now we can move forward on the next phase, which is digesting those proofs and figuring out where the field moves after that. Now, in terms of how did I feel that night, you know, as Alex mentioned, we, you know, we all had a drink in hand. And then I saw, you know, on my phone the news that that these proofs had dropped. And you know, people kept up coming and talking to me at the gala, but it’s already hard to socialize as a mathematician- … let alone, you know, when you have math you really want to read.
But I’m glad that they’re out there because now we can move forward on the next phase, which is digesting those proofs and figuring out where the field moves after that. Now, in terms of how did I feel that night, you know, as Alex mentioned, we, you know, we all had a drink in hand. And then I saw, you know, on my phone the news that that these proofs had dropped. And you know, people kept up coming and talking to me at the gala, but it’s already hard to socialize as a mathematician- … let alone, you know, when you have math you really want to read.
Ankur Moitra
So it was doubly hard. The other funny thing about it was, you know, I was in New York already, so I took it as an opportunity before the gala to visit a lot of people I knew at NYU. And I just happened to be meeting with Subhash Khot, the one who introduced the Unique Games Conjecture. And I just so happened to ask him, you know, just a few hours before the gala, before the OpenAI paper is released, “Subhash, what would you do, you know, if they release a positive proof of Unique Games? Are you gonna read it?” And he told me, “No.” Which, you know, that’s a lot of people’s reactions, unfortunately. It’s just kind of true that there are these grand challenges we work on, and sometimes when they get solved, you know, sometimes it feels like, you know, someone has stolen your thunder.
So it was doubly hard. The other funny thing about it was, you know, I was in New York already, so I took it as an opportunity before the gala to visit a lot of people I knew at NYU. And I just happened to be meeting with Subhash Khot, the one who introduced the Unique Games Conjecture. And I just so happened to ask him, you know, just a few hours before the gala, before the OpenAI paper is released, “Subhash, what would you do, you know, if they release a positive proof of Unique Games? Are you gonna read it?” And he told me, “No.” Which, you know, that’s a lot of people’s reactions, unfortunately. It’s just kind of true that there are these grand challenges we work on, and sometimes when they get solved, you know, sometimes it feels like, you know, someone has stolen your thunder.
Ankur Moitra
You know, it’s not like people didn’t have ideas about how to solve the Unique Games Conjecture, and I bet you those blueprints would have panned out if we’d given them more time. I think the other thing I worry is that, you know, that we lose out on the human effort of trying to reach those solutions to begin with. You know, math is not just about what is the furthest I can reach with the current set of tools I have. Is it a convex hull? Is it a subgroup? I don’t know. But, you know, sometimes when it’s a human-driven solution, we learn a lot more in the process.
You know, it’s not like people didn’t have ideas about how to solve the Unique Games Conjecture, and I bet you those blueprints would have panned out if we’d given them more time. I think the other thing I worry is that, you know, that we lose out on the human effort of trying to reach those solutions to begin with. You know, math is not just about what is the furthest I can reach with the current set of tools I have. Is it a convex hull? Is it a subgroup? I don’t know. But, you know, sometimes when it’s a human-driven solution, we learn a lot more in the process.
Ankur Moitra
So I worry about the fact that there were these great landmark problems, field-defining problems that a lot of people were reaching towards, and that decisive progress was made, you know, and the results all dropped in one night, and that people lose their enthusiasm for going down those paths. And I wonder if we’d given those people that space to go down those paths, what other exciting things we would have discovered. So I think one of the things I mentioned, you know, we were all trying to process it at MoMath and, you know, there were a lot of really nice talks. Not all of them went up on YouTube. Some of them were, you know, about benefactors and awards named after them.
So I worry about the fact that there were these great landmark problems, field-defining problems that a lot of people were reaching towards, and that decisive progress was made, you know, and the results all dropped in one night, and that people lose their enthusiasm for going down those paths. And I wonder if we’d given those people that space to go down those paths, what other exciting things we would have discovered. So I think one of the things I mentioned, you know, we were all trying to process it at MoMath and, you know, there were a lot of really nice talks. Not all of them went up on YouTube. Some of them were, you know, about benefactors and awards named after them.
Ankur Moitra
And the thing I kept coming back to is this idea that, you know, why do you do math in the first place is to play and learn about the world. And we saw so many manifestations of it that night.
And the thing I kept coming back to is this idea that, you know, why do you do math in the first place is to play and learn about the world. And we saw so many manifestations of it that night.
Ankur Moitra
You know, because there were awards named after people who, you know, why were they donating to the museum was because they wanted their kids to have a place to play with mathematical ideas and learn about the world. It was also the opening of an Escher exhibit, and what a great visual of, you know, what happens when we play with mathematical concepts, right? And so it felt to me that in this moment, it’s really important to remember as we’re going through all of this change together, as we don’t know what the future holds, what AI and mathematicians’ collaboration will look like in the future, what hiring will look like, that the reason we all got into it was because we were very curious.
You know, because there were awards named after people who, you know, why were they donating to the museum was because they wanted their kids to have a place to play with mathematical ideas and learn about the world. It was also the opening of an Escher exhibit, and what a great visual of, you know, what happens when we play with mathematical concepts, right? And so it felt to me that in this moment, it’s really important to remember as we’re going through all of this change together, as we don’t know what the future holds, what AI and mathematicians’ collaboration will look like in the future, what hiring will look like, that the reason we all got into it was because we were very curious.
Ankur Moitra
You know, we wanted to understand the world, and mathematicians are very good at abstracting things. You know, they don’t just understand one little piece, but they find some abstraction and some set of definitions that turns out to be unreasonably powerful in some other corner of mathematics. So I think it’s really important, whatever the future holds, to make sure that we organize our field in a way where we still encourage people to play with ideas. I don’t know what kind of reward system will work, but, you know, when I look out and I talk to young people in the field, they have a lot of anxiety.
You know, we wanted to understand the world, and mathematicians are very good at abstracting things. You know, they don’t just understand one little piece, but they find some abstraction and some set of definitions that turns out to be unreasonably powerful in some other corner of mathematics. So I think it’s really important, whatever the future holds, to make sure that we organize our field in a way where we still encourage people to play with ideas. I don’t know what kind of reward system will work, but, you know, when I look out and I talk to young people in the field, they have a lot of anxiety.
Ankur Moitra
You know, they hear a lot of stories even about people they know, you know, running harnesses to, you know, scrape the web for open problems, to dump as many papers as they can to flood arXiv. I don’t know if that’s a good strategy. It doesn’t seem like it is, but it certainly doesn’t feel like fun to me. It doesn’t feel like we’re playing with ideas and learning about the world, and that’s sad. I just wanna get back to the things I really enjoy.
You know, they hear a lot of stories even about people they know, you know, running harnesses to, you know, scrape the web for open problems, to dump as many papers as they can to flood arXiv. I don’t know if that’s a good strategy. It doesn’t seem like it is, but it certainly doesn’t feel like fun to me. It doesn’t feel like we’re playing with ideas and learning about the world, and that’s sad. I just wanna get back to the things I really enjoy.
Ankur Moitra
The other thing maybe I just wanna add in there too is, like, you know, it’s a big identity crisis for a lot of people ’cause, you know, some people view themselves more as problem solvers, and that can feel very comforting, that you can draw a little circle around the types of problems you work on, the types of techniques you use, the types of problems you care about. And that feels very comforting because the rest of the world is messy and you’ve got blinders on. This is the part that I care about. Now, I think, is the time to remove those blinders because I just don’t find that to be a productive way to do it.
The other thing maybe I just wanna add in there too is, like, you know, it’s a big identity crisis for a lot of people ’cause, you know, some people view themselves more as problem solvers, and that can feel very comforting, that you can draw a little circle around the types of problems you work on, the types of techniques you use, the types of problems you care about. And that feels very comforting because the rest of the world is messy and you’ve got blinders on. This is the part that I care about. Now, I think, is the time to remove those blinders because I just don’t find that to be a productive way to do it.
Ankur Moitra
You know, we love playing and learning about the world around us, and it’s important to remember as, you know, a young mathematician, are you smarter than you are curious, or are you more curious than you are smart? It’s very important to be more curious than anything else.
You know, we love playing and learning about the world around us, and it’s important to remember as, you know, a young mathematician, are you smarter than you are curious, or are you more curious than you are smart? It’s very important to be more curious than anything else.
Lex Fridman
And you mentioned fun. There could be another perspective of it, of more about the struggle from my out– maybe outsider perspective is some of the most fun in the moment sure feels like struggle. I’ve talked to a lot of Olympic gold medalists. A lot of them feel something approximating depression after they win the gold medal because it’s like you have given everything, and you realize everything you’ve given is now over.
And you mentioned fun. There could be another perspective of it, of more about the struggle from my out– maybe outsider perspective is some of the most fun in the moment sure feels like struggle. I’ve talked to a lot of Olympic gold medalists. A lot of them feel something approximating depression after they win the gold medal because it’s like you have given everything, and you realize everything you’ve given is now over.
How mathematicians think
Ankur Moitra
Thirty years ago, there was a documentary of Andrew Wiles, and there’s a great scene, I think they even run it right at the very beginning to your gold medalist, you know, what do you do once you’ve won the thing? He’s sitting there at his desk, and he’s describing the moment when he realizes what the solution is, not his initial announcement, which was flawed, and then for many months, he was trying to correct it, and he finally saw how to do it. And he’s trying to say, you know, “I will never again in my life have a moment as powerful as the moment that I experienced at this desk that day,” and he’s choking up.
Thirty years ago, there was a documentary of Andrew Wiles, and there’s a great scene, I think they even run it right at the very beginning to your gold medalist, you know, what do you do once you’ve won the thing? He’s sitting there at his desk, and he’s describing the moment when he realizes what the solution is, not his initial announcement, which was flawed, and then for many months, he was trying to correct it, and he finally saw how to do it. And he’s trying to say, you know, “I will never again in my life have a moment as powerful as the moment that I experienced at this desk that day,” and he’s choking up.
Alex Kontorovich
You can’t get the words out. So that– Can you get that if you press the button and it gave you the solution? Absolutely not. So exactly to both of your points, like the journey, you know, if you see a giant hill, a giant mountain, and you say, “One day I’m gonna get to the top of that,” and you start training for it, and you’re sort of doing little by little, whatever, and then a helicopter lands and just drops you at the top. Can you actually speak to that? The interesting thing about Andrew Wiles and a little bit about Grigori Perelman as well is working alone for a prolonged period of time. What do you make of that? How common is that in mathematics of sitting there and grinding a problem for, in his case, seven years?
You can’t get the words out. So that– Can you get that if you press the button and it gave you the solution? Absolutely not. So exactly to both of your points, like the journey, you know, if you see a giant hill, a giant mountain, and you say, “One day I’m gonna get to the top of that,” and you start training for it, and you’re sort of doing little by little, whatever, and then a helicopter lands and just drops you at the top. Can you actually speak to that? The interesting thing about Andrew Wiles and a little bit about Grigori Perelman as well is working alone for a prolonged period of time. What do you make of that? How common is that in mathematics of sitting there and grinding a problem for, in his case, seven years?
Alex Kontorovich
Until the 20th century, almost every math paper that had ever been written was written, you know, had one author. I think now the median is two in mathematics, and so we’re not a lab science. It really is a solitary process. Now, see, the things that I give my graduate students to do are not the things that I’m working on, sort of by design.
Until the 20th century, almost every math paper that had ever been written was written, you know, had one author. I think now the median is two in mathematics, and so we’re not a lab science. It really is a solitary process. Now, see, the things that I give my graduate students to do are not the things that I’m working on, sort of by design.
Alex Kontorovich
I want them to have their own field. I wanna open doors for them. It’s different in different fields, right? So when they have a success, it really should be their success, even if I’ve sort of– I had an idea that this would go somewhere and they executed on it, that’s theirs. But in terms of sitting there for– The paper that I put out a month ago is something I’ve been thinking about for 10 years. It’s a five-author paper. Over those 10 years, we made incremental progress to the point where we finally, you know, had a solution, and that paper was an instance of there’s a phenomenon here, and I don’t understand what it is. It wasn’t, “Here’s a problem, solve it.” Like, we could not, at the start of the project, give you the Lean, formalized statement that needs a sorry.
I want them to have their own field. I wanna open doors for them. It’s different in different fields, right? So when they have a success, it really should be their success, even if I’ve sort of– I had an idea that this would go somewhere and they executed on it, that’s theirs. But in terms of sitting there for– The paper that I put out a month ago is something I’ve been thinking about for 10 years. It’s a five-author paper. Over those 10 years, we made incremental progress to the point where we finally, you know, had a solution, and that paper was an instance of there’s a phenomenon here, and I don’t understand what it is. It wasn’t, “Here’s a problem, solve it.” Like, we could not, at the start of the project, give you the Lean, formalized statement that needs a sorry.
Alex Kontorovich
Like, you discover what the statement is through the process of hacking away at the problem little by little until you see enough of it to say, “This is how it comes together.” Actually, that makes me think, can you actually describe your thinking process of how you think through really hard problems? Is there some aspects to it that are interesting, like a lot of coffee in the morning, at night, alone, brooding with a cigar or together at a whiteboard with others? Is there some interesting color, texture, insights you can give?
Like, you discover what the statement is through the process of hacking away at the problem little by little until you see enough of it to say, “This is how it comes together.” Actually, that makes me think, can you actually describe your thinking process of how you think through really hard problems? Is there some aspects to it that are interesting, like a lot of coffee in the morning, at night, alone, brooding with a cigar or together at a whiteboard with others? Is there some interesting color, texture, insights you can give?
Ankur Moitra
Sure. I think, I think a lot through world models in some way. So, you know, I have some mental model of how I think results in some sub-area go, and I think that colors a lot of how I see surrounding areas too. So for me, a lot of my work is really about, you know, building bridges between algorithmic thinking and other problems that usually aren’t studied through that same algorithmic lens. So I think when I first started as a advisor, I sort of made the mistake that I gave students questions that were 100% in my area. And the problem then was, you know, when they would come back and they’d have an idea, I could shoot it down very quickly, and I was either right or I was wrong, but either way, no one was having any fun.
Sure. I think, I think a lot through world models in some way. So, you know, I have some mental model of how I think results in some sub-area go, and I think that colors a lot of how I see surrounding areas too. So for me, a lot of my work is really about, you know, building bridges between algorithmic thinking and other problems that usually aren’t studied through that same algorithmic lens. So I think when I first started as a advisor, I sort of made the mistake that I gave students questions that were 100% in my area. And the problem then was, you know, when they would come back and they’d have an idea, I could shoot it down very quickly, and I was either right or I was wrong, but either way, no one was having any fun.
Ankur Moitra
You know, over time, what I started to do was I would give students questions that were 10, 20 degrees off from my own area, things that I wanted to understand better myself, papers that I thought were important that I just hadn’t had time to sit down and read, and then I have the student explain the result to me. And what’s fun is we would go through that process together, not, you know, by printing out the paper and going through it line by line, but trying to reverse engineer: why do we think this works in the first place? And there’s so many details that once you get the feel for it, you kind of have the sense that they ought to work out.
You know, over time, what I started to do was I would give students questions that were 10, 20 degrees off from my own area, things that I wanted to understand better myself, papers that I thought were important that I just hadn’t had time to sit down and read, and then I have the student explain the result to me. And what’s fun is we would go through that process together, not, you know, by printing out the paper and going through it line by line, but trying to reverse engineer: why do we think this works in the first place? And there’s so many details that once you get the feel for it, you kind of have the sense that they ought to work out.
Ankur Moitra
But at least in important papers, there are one or maybe even more than that, key ideas that really change your perspective, “Oh, this really might be doable.” So what I found was, you know, as soon as we start trying to understand one of these results, we find our own way of looking at things, and then it’s not long after we find some other questions that we now think are approachable because we found our own way of organizing our thoughts. So that’s often the way I do it is the earlier that I can have the student in the driver’s seat, not necessarily with a well-defined question-
But at least in important papers, there are one or maybe even more than that, key ideas that really change your perspective, “Oh, this really might be doable.” So what I found was, you know, as soon as we start trying to understand one of these results, we find our own way of looking at things, and then it’s not long after we find some other questions that we now think are approachable because we found our own way of organizing our thoughts. So that’s often the way I do it is the earlier that I can have the student in the driver’s seat, not necessarily with a well-defined question-
Ankur Moitra
But with them teaching me something and them being responsible for distilling and digesting and abstracting it down to its essence. You know, reasoning through with them analogies that aren’t meant to literally be true, but help us figure out what to expect in neighboring areas. You know, then it feels like they bring a unique perspective, and we’re off to the races. So for me, in a lot of ways, the technology is only gonna enable that kind of work because it means that a much richer set of problems are approachable. You know, for me, when I find experts in related areas that can really explain things in my own language, I hold onto them for dear life because, you know, they can speak the gospel.
But with them teaching me something and them being responsible for distilling and digesting and abstracting it down to its essence. You know, reasoning through with them analogies that aren’t meant to literally be true, but help us figure out what to expect in neighboring areas. You know, then it feels like they bring a unique perspective, and we’re off to the races. So for me, in a lot of ways, the technology is only gonna enable that kind of work because it means that a much richer set of problems are approachable. You know, for me, when I find experts in related areas that can really explain things in my own language, I hold onto them for dear life because, you know, they can speak the gospel.
Ankur Moitra
They can tell me how this area is organized and explain it in my own language. But now, you know, I have technology that can do that too, and it also feels a bit sad that you lose that human element that was there once before. I think also students have so much anxiety about, you know, what publications are gonna look like that one of the hardest parts is, you know, when I’m thinking about a project, I’m really trying to think about it in a sort of multi-year time horizon because I have some meta vision that I wanna realize, like how can we use learning theory techniques in quantum many-body systems? And there are a lot of stepping stones on route to that, but some of the most exciting problems are, you know, many years out.
They can tell me how this area is organized and explain it in my own language. But now, you know, I have technology that can do that too, and it also feels a bit sad that you lose that human element that was there once before. I think also students have so much anxiety about, you know, what publications are gonna look like that one of the hardest parts is, you know, when I’m thinking about a project, I’m really trying to think about it in a sort of multi-year time horizon because I have some meta vision that I wanna realize, like how can we use learning theory techniques in quantum many-body systems? And there are a lot of stepping stones on route to that, but some of the most exciting problems are, you know, many years out.
Ankur Moitra
But students are so worried about the incoming AI tidal wave, you know, the future of work, universal basic income. Are any of us gonna have jobs? That they’re really thinking in three- and six-month horizons, and then it’s hard to find problems that we both care about just because-
But students are so worried about the incoming AI tidal wave, you know, the future of work, universal basic income. Are any of us gonna have jobs? That they’re really thinking in three- and six-month horizons, and then it’s hard to find problems that we both care about just because-
Steven Brunton
You know, we’re thinking about different worlds.
You know, we’re thinking about different worlds.
Lex Fridman
You don’t think we should encourage them to continue to think long term? I mean, I understand that-
You don’t think we should encourage them to continue to think long term? I mean, I understand that-
Steven Brunton
Oh, I do, but they don’t always listen to you. I mean, I don’t know if I’m right or wrong. You know, maybe AI will solve all of our problems, but it seems like the only ones that are actually worth us working on at this moment in time are the ones we’re still gonna care about in a bunch of years, and you should only be working on future-proof problems. If you’re working on things that, you know, you’re in a rush because you think the next generation of models will definitely solve those problems, then maybe just go on vacation and don’t solve that problem.
Oh, I do, but they don’t always listen to you. I mean, I don’t know if I’m right or wrong. You know, maybe AI will solve all of our problems, but it seems like the only ones that are actually worth us working on at this moment in time are the ones we’re still gonna care about in a bunch of years, and you should only be working on future-proof problems. If you’re working on things that, you know, you’re in a rush because you think the next generation of models will definitely solve those problems, then maybe just go on vacation and don’t solve that problem.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Can you speak to how you think– You work with a lot of natural systems. What are the interesting insights that could be pulled out of these natural systems?
Yeah. Can you speak to how you think– You work with a lot of natural systems. What are the interesting insights that could be pulled out of these natural systems?
Steven Brunton
So I find a tension between focusing very hard on an engineering problem I’m trying to solve, which can be very singular. You put on blinders, you only think about this problem, and then giving yourself the kind of mental freedom to look around and just observe and be curious. Very often you find the solution when you turn over a rock and when it’s not something you’re thinking about, you know, with the full front of your mind, but in the side of your mind. If you’re looking at a problem, you know, through your peripheral vision, you have a much better chance of solving it sometimes.
So I find a tension between focusing very hard on an engineering problem I’m trying to solve, which can be very singular. You put on blinders, you only think about this problem, and then giving yourself the kind of mental freedom to look around and just observe and be curious. Very often you find the solution when you turn over a rock and when it’s not something you’re thinking about, you know, with the full front of your mind, but in the side of your mind. If you’re looking at a problem, you know, through your peripheral vision, you have a much better chance of solving it sometimes.
Steven Brunton
And so this is a constant balance for me is observing all of the fields that I don’t work in and all of the nature that I don’t understand and all of the things that I’m curious about, but then also having very focused problems that you don’t relent, you don’t let go. And I– this must be true for all of us. We– I’ve heard from both of you, you know, focus problems you’ve been working on for years and decades that you haven’t let go of. But presumably that is informed by a million other pieces of information that you happen to pick up through interesting conversations and interesting-
And so this is a constant balance for me is observing all of the fields that I don’t work in and all of the nature that I don’t understand and all of the things that I’m curious about, but then also having very focused problems that you don’t relent, you don’t let go. And I– this must be true for all of us. We– I’ve heard from both of you, you know, focus problems you’ve been working on for years and decades that you haven’t let go of. But presumably that is informed by a million other pieces of information that you happen to pick up through interesting conversations and interesting-
Lex Fridman
Do you have example? ‘Cause it sounds like neighboring areas is a common theme. Do you have examples of things you’re like, you’re– the curious peripheral vision of your brain went, “Oh, okay, that’s an interesting system, might be relevant,” and then ended up being so or maybe in the future will?
Do you have example? ‘Cause it sounds like neighboring areas is a common theme. Do you have examples of things you’re like, you’re– the curious peripheral vision of your brain went, “Oh, okay, that’s an interesting system, might be relevant,” and then ended up being so or maybe in the future will?
Steven Brunton
So for me as a fluid dynamicist, biology and its messiness and complexity- … and also material science and its messiness and complexity are neighboring in a way that’s very fruitful. I learn a lot from- … from both of those fields, and a lot of the kind of basic math that we develop to handle complexity does seem to transfer, and sometimes you have an idea just because you see something is possible or you start to develop something and you can explain something that we didn’t understand before. But I think for me, biology and fluids and materials have this really interesting kind of commonality of multi-scale, non-linear, messy, nebulous objectives, things like that.
So for me as a fluid dynamicist, biology and its messiness and complexity- … and also material science and its messiness and complexity are neighboring in a way that’s very fruitful. I learn a lot from- … from both of those fields, and a lot of the kind of basic math that we develop to handle complexity does seem to transfer, and sometimes you have an idea just because you see something is possible or you start to develop something and you can explain something that we didn’t understand before. But I think for me, biology and fluids and materials have this really interesting kind of commonality of multi-scale, non-linear, messy, nebulous objectives, things like that.
Lex Fridman
By the way, on that topic, do you think there’s hope that AI can have some significant breakthroughs in the messy world of biology?
By the way, on that topic, do you think there’s hope that AI can have some significant breakthroughs in the messy world of biology?
Steven Brunton
I certainly hope so, and I think so. There are large efforts in biology to collect very large data sets and to understand complexity in systems, so the connectome where you have the full wiring diagram of the brains of insects. It looks like we will start to have connectomes of other animals, and eventually it’ll be probably like genomes where, you know, it is cheaper and more accessible.
I certainly hope so, and I think so. There are large efforts in biology to collect very large data sets and to understand complexity in systems, so the connectome where you have the full wiring diagram of the brains of insects. It looks like we will start to have connectomes of other animals, and eventually it’ll be probably like genomes where, you know, it is cheaper and more accessible.
Lex Fridman
I have this, like, feeling that we’ll find out, speaking to the resilience of, you know birds being resilient, that in order to understand how the human biology system works, you have to, like, pull that thread, and you’re gonna have to understand how the entirety of life on Earth emerged and functioned as an entire, like, mechanism. Like, it’s all tied together. Like, you can’t replicate– Like, it’s ridiculous what happens with humans. From a single cell, this whole thing goes. It builds, and the intelligence that’s built into the whole building mechanism in the first few days, weeks, months of life, this whole thing is like I think could be, like, many orders of magnitude more complex than some of the hard mathematics problems that we’ve been talking about.
I have this, like, feeling that we’ll find out, speaking to the resilience of, you know birds being resilient, that in order to understand how the human biology system works, you have to, like, pull that thread, and you’re gonna have to understand how the entirety of life on Earth emerged and functioned as an entire, like, mechanism. Like, it’s all tied together. Like, you can’t replicate– Like, it’s ridiculous what happens with humans. From a single cell, this whole thing goes. It builds, and the intelligence that’s built into the whole building mechanism in the first few days, weeks, months of life, this whole thing is like I think could be, like, many orders of magnitude more complex than some of the hard mathematics problems that we’ve been talking about.
Lex Fridman
Again, I suspect if turbulence is hard, like whatever the hell is going on in here, I don’t mean the brain, I mean, like, the fluids around the brain, the whole thing, the immune system, all of it, the– everything interconnected together, and I am very deeply connected to the history of the bacteria that was here billions of years ago. I suspect the complexity of the entirety of the mechanism of life on Earth is many, many, many orders of magnitude higher than any system that we– that is amenable to AI today. Just a thought. Sorry.
Again, I suspect if turbulence is hard, like whatever the hell is going on in here, I don’t mean the brain, I mean, like, the fluids around the brain, the whole thing, the immune system, all of it, the– everything interconnected together, and I am very deeply connected to the history of the bacteria that was here billions of years ago. I suspect the complexity of the entirety of the mechanism of life on Earth is many, many, many orders of magnitude higher than any system that we– that is amenable to AI today. Just a thought. Sorry.
Steven Brunton
No, I tend to agree.
No, I tend to agree.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Steven Brunton
I think you’re right. Like, it’s incredible to just imagine all of the complexity and scales that inside one cell, it’s a whole city. It’s a whole infrastructure. You know, one of your neurons has garbage collection and power production and information pro– like, the whole thing is, at every single scale, is beyond our ability to possibly fathom. You’re absolutely right. And I think that’s what makes it so interesting, and it is related to math in the sense that finding the right scale where we have any hope at all, and there is something interesting that we can use to understand that, that whole picture, I think that’s very fascinating and that up until now has been a human endeavor of finding the bits that are interesting and understandable in this mess of complexity.
I think you’re right. Like, it’s incredible to just imagine all of the complexity and scales that inside one cell, it’s a whole city. It’s a whole infrastructure. You know, one of your neurons has garbage collection and power production and information pro– like, the whole thing is, at every single scale, is beyond our ability to possibly fathom. You’re absolutely right. And I think that’s what makes it so interesting, and it is related to math in the sense that finding the right scale where we have any hope at all, and there is something interesting that we can use to understand that, that whole picture, I think that’s very fascinating and that up until now has been a human endeavor of finding the bits that are interesting and understandable in this mess of complexity.
Steven Brunton
And- Yeah, I think you’re right.
And- Yeah, I think you’re right.
Alex Kontorovich
I mean, the fact that anything is understandable about the natural world is a miracle, right?
I mean, the fact that anything is understandable about the natural world is a miracle, right?
Steven Brunton
Yeah, absolutely.
Yeah, absolutely.
Alex Kontorovich
There’s no reason that Newton’s laws can be written in physics that Newton himself can describe the mathematics of, and, you know, invent calculus for the purpose of being able to say what inverse square propagation results in elliptical orbits, you know, solve the two-body problem, yada, yada. So the fact that the universe speaks mathematics is completely mysterious. There’s no a priori reason that we… We don’t have a right to know anything that we know.
There’s no reason that Newton’s laws can be written in physics that Newton himself can describe the mathematics of, and, you know, invent calculus for the purpose of being able to say what inverse square propagation results in elliptical orbits, you know, solve the two-body problem, yada, yada. So the fact that the universe speaks mathematics is completely mysterious. There’s no a priori reason that we… We don’t have a right to know anything that we know.
Is math invented or discovered?
Lex Fridman
I apologize for the question, but I’m obligated by the said universe to ask the question, but given this topic, do you think math is invented or discovered? Alex.
I apologize for the question, but I’m obligated by the said universe to ask the question, but given this topic, do you think math is invented or discovered? Alex.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah, it’s the age-old question. I have a very sort of pragmatic answer to this, which is the questions that we end up asking, it seems to me, are functions of what’s going on in the world, what questions we possibly can be asking given our current state of knowledge. The questions we’re trying to answer today are not questions that Euclid could have thought about. Math was sort of– The things that people got interested in were different in Greece versus India versus China. But then the answers, once you ask a question precisely, the answer is what God decides the answer is. So we don’t have– So we’re discovering answers to questions that we’ve invented.
Yeah, it’s the age-old question. I have a very sort of pragmatic answer to this, which is the questions that we end up asking, it seems to me, are functions of what’s going on in the world, what questions we possibly can be asking given our current state of knowledge. The questions we’re trying to answer today are not questions that Euclid could have thought about. Math was sort of– The things that people got interested in were different in Greece versus India versus China. But then the answers, once you ask a question precisely, the answer is what God decides the answer is. So we don’t have– So we’re discovering answers to questions that we’ve invented.
Lex Fridman
We’re discovering answer… Okay. Steve, you have worked with a lot of natural systems that look at equations. Equations are, I guess, always approximations of the real world. So what’s– Is math real?
We’re discovering answer… Okay. Steve, you have worked with a lot of natural systems that look at equations. Equations are, I guess, always approximations of the real world. So what’s– Is math real?
Alex Kontorovich
You gotta say yes.
You gotta say yes.
Steven Brunton
Right. We got a lot of pressure here.
Right. We got a lot of pressure here.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. How big is the gap between the mathematical world and the real world?
Yeah. How big is the gap between the mathematical world and the real world?
Steven Brunton
Surprisingly small. I think unexpectedly small. I like your answer a lot, actually. I do somehow fundamentally think that math is both created and discovered. We create mathematical formalisms to understand the world around us, and those approximations are unreasonably effective. It is a miracle that there are simple, compact descriptions, F equals ma, E equals mc squared, that describe everything that we observe at, you know, all of the scales that we seem to observe. We seem to be able to distill something simple, mathematical that describes them. That feels like we are creating those, but that there is that simple, generalizable description underneath everything, and that seems to be something we’re also uncovering.
Surprisingly small. I think unexpectedly small. I like your answer a lot, actually. I do somehow fundamentally think that math is both created and discovered. We create mathematical formalisms to understand the world around us, and those approximations are unreasonably effective. It is a miracle that there are simple, compact descriptions, F equals ma, E equals mc squared, that describe everything that we observe at, you know, all of the scales that we seem to observe. We seem to be able to distill something simple, mathematical that describes them. That feels like we are creating those, but that there is that simple, generalizable description underneath everything, and that seems to be something we’re also uncovering.
Lex Fridman
Do you think that’s a good guide, you know, kind of searching for the beautiful simplicity for us? Are we just, like, aesthetically pleasing things?
Do you think that’s a good guide, you know, kind of searching for the beautiful simplicity for us? Are we just, like, aesthetically pleasing things?
Steven Brunton
I think it’s a good guide for us because we are fundamentally simple. We can only handle so much in our minds. We can only envision so much. I think simple is essential for humans to interact with the real world. Okay, if I wanna get, like, slightly deeper into the question of created versus discovered, numbers are a good example, integers. We all fundamentally feel like, you know, counting numbers are real in a very essential way. I can have one rock and two rocks and three rocks, and that is a number of rocks. It is a real number of rocks. But those are absolutely abstractions that I have created. A rock is not a rock, is not a rock. It’s a collection of atoms. It’s a different collection of atoms. It’s– They’re not, there’s not one rock or two rocks. Do numbers even exist?
I think it’s a good guide for us because we are fundamentally simple. We can only handle so much in our minds. We can only envision so much. I think simple is essential for humans to interact with the real world. Okay, if I wanna get, like, slightly deeper into the question of created versus discovered, numbers are a good example, integers. We all fundamentally feel like, you know, counting numbers are real in a very essential way. I can have one rock and two rocks and three rocks, and that is a number of rocks. It is a real number of rocks. But those are absolutely abstractions that I have created. A rock is not a rock, is not a rock. It’s a collection of atoms. It’s a different collection of atoms. It’s– They’re not, there’s not one rock or two rocks. Do numbers even exist?
Steven Brunton
I wrestle with this. I don’t know. Like do we actually believe that integers are a human creation to interact with our symbolic abstraction of what we observe, quantities and-
I wrestle with this. I don’t know. Like do we actually believe that integers are a human creation to interact with our symbolic abstraction of what we observe, quantities and-
Alex Kontorovich
I mean, it took humans thousands of years to discover the number zero.
I mean, it took humans thousands of years to discover the number zero.
Steven Brunton
Right.
Right.
Alex Kontorovich
And then negative numbers. Negative numbers were actually accepted by mathematicians in the West after complex numbers- …were accepted as a mechanism for study, which seems insane, but there’s a whole- …story behind that.
And then negative numbers. Negative numbers were actually accepted by mathematicians in the West after complex numbers- …were accepted as a mechanism for study, which seems insane, but there’s a whole- …story behind that.
Lex Fridman
What’s your relationship like with infinity? Is it real to you, or is it a nice thing to have as part of proofs?
What’s your relationship like with infinity? Is it real to you, or is it a nice thing to have as part of proofs?
Alex Kontorovich
So much of modern mathematics is exactly dealing seriously with infinity, right? One of the first times people really start to hit a wall in their mathematical education is when they hit calculus, and there’s sort of several reasons for it. One is they probably have a lot of gaps in their understanding in previous, you know, they got an eighty-one on geometry and a seventy-five in trigonometry or whatever. Those are pointing to gaps in their understanding that all of which is gonna come together in one-
So much of modern mathematics is exactly dealing seriously with infinity, right? One of the first times people really start to hit a wall in their mathematical education is when they hit calculus, and there’s sort of several reasons for it. One is they probably have a lot of gaps in their understanding in previous, you know, they got an eighty-one on geometry and a seventy-five in trigonometry or whatever. Those are pointing to gaps in their understanding that all of which is gonna come together in one-
Alex Kontorovich
…uh, fell swoop, and the Swiss cheese is just, you know, not, they’re not able to cross that threshold. That’s one issue with calculus. The other issue with calculus is the first time you deal seriously with infinity. You have to add up infinitely many infinitely small things and get a finite number and have that number make sense. Human beings Newton and Leibniz did not understand infinity the way we understand it today. They had an intuition for what it’s supposed to represent. But if you read Newton, I mean, Newton in his time was ridiculed for the way he wrote about, you know, the ghosts of departed quantities. You know, you have to divide zero by zero-
…uh, fell swoop, and the Swiss cheese is just, you know, not, they’re not able to cross that threshold. That’s one issue with calculus. The other issue with calculus is the first time you deal seriously with infinity. You have to add up infinitely many infinitely small things and get a finite number and have that number make sense. Human beings Newton and Leibniz did not understand infinity the way we understand it today. They had an intuition for what it’s supposed to represent. But if you read Newton, I mean, Newton in his time was ridiculed for the way he wrote about, you know, the ghosts of departed quantities. You know, you have to divide zero by zero-
Alex Kontorovich
…and, and have it make sense, and you don’t do it you don’t do it when they’re zero. You do it after they become zero. I mean, the way that he was trying to write about these things turned into the crisis in the nineteenth century when Cauchy and Fourier proved conflicting theorems. Cauchy said you have a sequence of continuous functions, and you take the limit of continuous functions, you’re gonna get a continuous function, right? Limits are a continuous process. Continuous functions are continuous. The answer has to be continuous. And Fourier says, “I’m gonna add up a bunch of sines and cosines. Doesn’t get more continuous than sines and cosines, and I’ll get a sawtooth. I’ll get whatever you want. I’ll get a discontinuous function in the limit.” They broke math.
…and, and have it make sense, and you don’t do it you don’t do it when they’re zero. You do it after they become zero. I mean, the way that he was trying to write about these things turned into the crisis in the nineteenth century when Cauchy and Fourier proved conflicting theorems. Cauchy said you have a sequence of continuous functions, and you take the limit of continuous functions, you’re gonna get a continuous function, right? Limits are a continuous process. Continuous functions are continuous. The answer has to be continuous. And Fourier says, “I’m gonna add up a bunch of sines and cosines. Doesn’t get more continuous than sines and cosines, and I’ll get a sawtooth. I’ll get whatever you want. I’ll get a discontinuous function in the limit.” They broke math.
Ankur Moitra
So that’s when we had to start facing– it was no longer okay to think about infinity the way Newton and Leibniz and the entire– Euler’s entire, what, thousand some odd papers lived in a world where infinity was something you play with, and in the nineteenth century, infinity had to get professionalized.
So that’s when we had to start facing– it was no longer okay to think about infinity the way Newton and Leibniz and the entire– Euler’s entire, what, thousand some odd papers lived in a world where infinity was something you play with, and in the nineteenth century, infinity had to get professionalized.
Lex Fridman
So it turns out math has been killed multiple times- … before.
So it turns out math has been killed multiple times- … before.
Ankur Moitra
That’s right. And it’s somehow it’s, it’s only a scratch. The vast majority of our first-year PhD courses are the result of crises that happened in the nineteenth century. And math– where math was destroyed and had to be rebuilt from scratch.
That’s right. And it’s somehow it’s, it’s only a scratch. The vast majority of our first-year PhD courses are the result of crises that happened in the nineteenth century. And math– where math was destroyed and had to be rebuilt from scratch.
Can AI solve P vs NP?
Lex Fridman
Speaking of crises, let me get back to P versus NP question Ankur was talking about. Do you think– how hard of a problem is that proving– So this is sort of the central question of complexity theory, P equals NP. Do you think AI will be able to prove this? In fact, we should mention that you’re kind of a part of a panel. There was initially a debate about whether LLM-based methods could one day make progress on the hardest problems in mathematics, like P and NP or the Riemann hypothesis. That was a year ago. So what is your updated view on this?
Speaking of crises, let me get back to P versus NP question Ankur was talking about. Do you think– how hard of a problem is that proving– So this is sort of the central question of complexity theory, P equals NP. Do you think AI will be able to prove this? In fact, we should mention that you’re kind of a part of a panel. There was initially a debate about whether LLM-based methods could one day make progress on the hardest problems in mathematics, like P and NP or the Riemann hypothesis. That was a year ago. So what is your updated view on this?
Ankur Moitra
Well, clearly, they can make progress on- … central questions in the field. P versus NP, maybe it’s just because it’s closest to my heart. That seems very difficult to make progress on. You know, it’s kind of remarkable the things we don’t understand, so that problem I was describing about satisfiability, we don’t actually know any super linear lower bounds. You know, we think that it takes exponential time, not that much faster than enumerating all possible assignments and checking them, and yet we don’t know anything that sort of is asymptotically more running time than just reading the darn input.
Well, clearly, they can make progress on- … central questions in the field. P versus NP, maybe it’s just because it’s closest to my heart. That seems very difficult to make progress on. You know, it’s kind of remarkable the things we don’t understand, so that problem I was describing about satisfiability, we don’t actually know any super linear lower bounds. You know, we think that it takes exponential time, not that much faster than enumerating all possible assignments and checking them, and yet we don’t know anything that sort of is asymptotically more running time than just reading the darn input.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. And we should actually mention, you’ve talked about hard and easy. What is a more technical way to think about what is hard and what is easy?
Mm-hmm. And we should actually mention, you’ve talked about hard and easy. What is a more technical way to think about what is hard and what is easy?
Ankur Moitra
Right. So this is polynomial time versus not polynomial time, or, you know, NP, just to be clear, stands for non-deterministic polynomial time. So the question is whether things which you can solve with non-determinism, like guess the assignment and then check it, can also be solved in polynomial time. So the question there is, if I give you a description of a formula, you know, I tell you what are the variables, what clauses they appear in, is there an algorithm that runs in time polynomial in the size of the input and correctly decides whether or not there is a satisfying assignment?
Right. So this is polynomial time versus not polynomial time, or, you know, NP, just to be clear, stands for non-deterministic polynomial time. So the question is whether things which you can solve with non-determinism, like guess the assignment and then check it, can also be solved in polynomial time. So the question there is, if I give you a description of a formula, you know, I tell you what are the variables, what clauses they appear in, is there an algorithm that runs in time polynomial in the size of the input and correctly decides whether or not there is a satisfying assignment?
Lex Fridman
We should mention that the polynomial time or exponential time or super linear time, all this refers to worst-case analysis.
We should mention that the polynomial time or exponential time or super linear time, all this refers to worst-case analysis.
Ankur Moitra
That’s right. That’s right.
That’s right. That’s right.
Lex Fridman
So can you explain what worst-case analysis is, and what are its-
So can you explain what worst-case analysis is, and what are its-
Ankur Moitra
Pitfalls.
Pitfalls.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I should say what are its pitfalls, ’cause I think it’s a little bit counterintuitive from people outside the field, like to understand exactly when we say a certain problem is hard, you’re actually talking about worst case.
Yeah, I should say what are its pitfalls, ’cause I think it’s a little bit counterintuitive from people outside the field, like to understand exactly when we say a certain problem is hard, you’re actually talking about worst case.
Ankur Moitra
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
It’s like analyzing, I don’t know, I don’t know why that popped into my head, but like marriage. It’s like analyzing whether I should marry this person or not by saying, “Well, what’s the worst thing that could possibly happen?” I think that’s for human relationships, maybe it’s not such a good strategy. Maybe the average case is a better guide for making decisions. Anyway, I don’t know why I brought that up.
It’s like analyzing, I don’t know, I don’t know why that popped into my head, but like marriage. It’s like analyzing whether I should marry this person or not by saying, “Well, what’s the worst thing that could possibly happen?” I think that’s for human relationships, maybe it’s not such a good strategy. Maybe the average case is a better guide for making decisions. Anyway, I don’t know why I brought that up.
Ankur Moitra
Okay, I have no advice about who you should marry.
Okay, I have no advice about who you should marry.
Lex Fridman
This is com– yeah, complexity theory does not give you. I think there is some– Isn’t there a dating, is it like an optimal stopping theory of the optimal-
This is com– yeah, complexity theory does not give you. I think there is some– Isn’t there a dating, is it like an optimal stopping theory of the optimal-
Ankur Moitra
Secretary problem.
Secretary problem.
Lex Fridman
The secretary problem. There’s a lot of different names for it- … but there is a mathematical way. There’s an optimal strategy.
The secretary problem. There’s a lot of different names for it- … but there is a mathematical way. There’s an optimal strategy.
Ankur Moitra
So first, so what is worst case analysis? So-
So first, so what is worst case analysis? So-
Lex Fridman
Yes, please.
Yes, please.
Ankur Moitra
… you know, I was describing the SAT problem earlier, and the algorithmic problem you want to solve is, given any formula, you want to decide is it satisfiable or not. Now, what’s crucial there is that when I’m asking to solve that algorithmic problem, I’m not telling you anything more about the structure of the formula.
… you know, I was describing the SAT problem earlier, and the algorithmic problem you want to solve is, given any formula, you want to decide is it satisfiable or not. Now, what’s crucial there is that when I’m asking to solve that algorithmic problem, I’m not telling you anything more about the structure of the formula.
Ankur Moitra
I’m not telling you, you know, these are the size of the clauses. They look like this. If I drew a graph connecting them, it would have this topology. So that’s what worst-case analysis is about, is it’s about the premise that you can treat all of these computational problems actually by ignoring a lot of the fine-grained detail about the individual structure, and you can try and solve them, you know, for all possible inputs. And that’s been spectacularly powerful because we’ve identified lots of algorithmic problems that really can be solved in the worst case and can be solved really efficiently.
I’m not telling you, you know, these are the size of the clauses. They look like this. If I drew a graph connecting them, it would have this topology. So that’s what worst-case analysis is about, is it’s about the premise that you can treat all of these computational problems actually by ignoring a lot of the fine-grained detail about the individual structure, and you can try and solve them, you know, for all possible inputs. And that’s been spectacularly powerful because we’ve identified lots of algorithmic problems that really can be solved in the worst case and can be solved really efficiently.
Ankur Moitra
You know, like finding the max flow as an example. But the question is, you know, whether or not that’s a useful abstraction. So sometimes maybe you really do need to know more about the structure of the instance you’re faced with in order to solve it better, right? And that’s really an open question. This is the area of what’s called beyond worst-case analysis, and I would sort of argue that, you know, it’s a very important direction for theoretical computer science to go in. It’s hard to figure out what you should articulate about natural problems that is really the right level of detail that your algorithm can exploit it and can do better things than it can in the worst case. But let’s use an example. So you were talking about the secretary problem.
You know, like finding the max flow as an example. But the question is, you know, whether or not that’s a useful abstraction. So sometimes maybe you really do need to know more about the structure of the instance you’re faced with in order to solve it better, right? And that’s really an open question. This is the area of what’s called beyond worst-case analysis, and I would sort of argue that, you know, it’s a very important direction for theoretical computer science to go in. It’s hard to figure out what you should articulate about natural problems that is really the right level of detail that your algorithm can exploit it and can do better things than it can in the worst case. But let’s use an example. So you were talking about the secretary problem.
Ankur Moitra
So the way that this works is it’s an example of something called online algorithms. So you have a sequence of options coming. One through N. They come in each time step, and your goal is, you know, when someone comes along, you know their ranking relative to everyone else you’ve seen before, but you don’t know their ranking relative to the people who are yet to come.
So the way that this works is it’s an example of something called online algorithms. So you have a sequence of options coming. One through N. They come in each time step, and your goal is, you know, when someone comes along, you know their ranking relative to everyone else you’ve seen before, but you don’t know their ranking relative to the people who are yet to come.
Ankur Moitra
And your goal is, you know, to make a decision when the person comes along, do you commit or do they move on, in such a way that you have a good chance of finding the absolute best candidate. And so the point is that you can actually get a constant competitive ratio algorithm that what you do, the best strategy is to wait some amount of the time, not make any decisions, don’t accept anyone. And then once that probationary window has passed, you take the first person who’s better than anyone you’ve seen thus far. And that’ll give you a good competitive ratio in the sense that you can prove theorems. Assuming the inputs arrive in a uniformly random order, you’re likely to do pretty well compared to as if you knew what that sequence of inputs was in advance.
And your goal is, you know, to make a decision when the person comes along, do you commit or do they move on, in such a way that you have a good chance of finding the absolute best candidate. And so the point is that you can actually get a constant competitive ratio algorithm that what you do, the best strategy is to wait some amount of the time, not make any decisions, don’t accept anyone. And then once that probationary window has passed, you take the first person who’s better than anyone you’ve seen thus far. And that’ll give you a good competitive ratio in the sense that you can prove theorems. Assuming the inputs arrive in a uniformly random order, you’re likely to do pretty well compared to as if you knew what that sequence of inputs was in advance.
Ankur Moitra
So there’s, you know, under online algorithms, there’s this veil of uncertainty, which is, I don’t know what the sequence of inputs are gonna look like. I wanna do well no matter what that sequence is because, you know, I don’t really know how to model what that sequence looks like. Now, you can instead say, “Hey, maybe the algorithms I derive aren’t good enough for my applications. Can I do better by trying to model more of the world around me?” And then there’s kind of an art to figuring out what you should model, what you should build into your model, and what you shouldn’t. And that seems to me like a tremendously important area to explore. So for example, one other variant of, you know, online algorithms that’s really important is the paging problem.
So there’s, you know, under online algorithms, there’s this veil of uncertainty, which is, I don’t know what the sequence of inputs are gonna look like. I wanna do well no matter what that sequence is because, you know, I don’t really know how to model what that sequence looks like. Now, you can instead say, “Hey, maybe the algorithms I derive aren’t good enough for my applications. Can I do better by trying to model more of the world around me?” And then there’s kind of an art to figuring out what you should model, what you should build into your model, and what you shouldn’t. And that seems to me like a tremendously important area to explore. So for example, one other variant of, you know, online algorithms that’s really important is the paging problem.
Ankur Moitra
So your laptop solves this problem all the time. You know, it’s getting a sequence of requests of things that it wants to recall from memory. And the question is, what should it actually put in its cache, the part that’s the easiest to access? And the problem again is that you don’t know what that sequence of requests looks like in advance. So you can study the online algorithms problem of, you know, what is a good policy for managing the cache? You know, when something gets accessed, you know, I have to put it in, but what do I evict? And you can design algorithms that are good in terms of their competitive ratio.
So your laptop solves this problem all the time. You know, it’s getting a sequence of requests of things that it wants to recall from memory. And the question is, what should it actually put in its cache, the part that’s the easiest to access? And the problem again is that you don’t know what that sequence of requests looks like in advance. So you can study the online algorithms problem of, you know, what is a good policy for managing the cache? You know, when something gets accessed, you know, I have to put it in, but what do I evict? And you can design algorithms that are good in terms of their competitive ratio.
Ankur Moitra
The number of times they miss in terms of those accesses is not much worse than the best offline optimum if someone told me that sequence of requests in advance and I could optimize just for that sequence of requests. Now, this is a problem that’s been studied since the ’80s and ’90s. The trouble is somehow that, you know, the best algorithms you can give, we know tight upper and lower bounds, they’re just not that very good. You know, the number of misses they make compared to the best offline optimum is a large factor off from it, and that just doesn’t compete with what your laptop is able to do right now because it really makes very few cache misses at the end of the day.
The number of times they miss in terms of those accesses is not much worse than the best offline optimum if someone told me that sequence of requests in advance and I could optimize just for that sequence of requests. Now, this is a problem that’s been studied since the ’80s and ’90s. The trouble is somehow that, you know, the best algorithms you can give, we know tight upper and lower bounds, they’re just not that very good. You know, the number of misses they make compared to the best offline optimum is a large factor off from it, and that just doesn’t compete with what your laptop is able to do right now because it really makes very few cache misses at the end of the day.
Ankur Moitra
So you’re stuck with this problem which sort of bridges mathematical thinking with trying to model the natural world, which is, you know, what is it about realistic sequences of requests that makes them not the worst case? This is really an inverse problem now because it’s, you know, the other side of the coin. Instead of someone handed you a problem that you’re just trying to solve in the worst case, and we can all agree on how it’s formulated, and we know what’s a better algorithm, it does better on the competitive ratio, now you’re stuck with this very fuzzy problem, which is: how should I model the world around me? And in a lot of ways, algorithmic thinking is necessary for figuring out what are productive ways to model that problem.
So you’re stuck with this problem which sort of bridges mathematical thinking with trying to model the natural world, which is, you know, what is it about realistic sequences of requests that makes them not the worst case? This is really an inverse problem now because it’s, you know, the other side of the coin. Instead of someone handed you a problem that you’re just trying to solve in the worst case, and we can all agree on how it’s formulated, and we know what’s a better algorithm, it does better on the competitive ratio, now you’re stuck with this very fuzzy problem, which is: how should I model the world around me? And in a lot of ways, algorithmic thinking is necessary for figuring out what are productive ways to model that problem.
Ankur Moitra
Because it’s not that you’re gonna build a totally realistic model of what sequence of page requests look like, but how am I gonna coarsen the problem in just the right way that it leads to interesting algorithmic problems that teach me about the world, that force me to, you know, design new approaches to solving these very basic problems. So I’d argue that, you know, sort of coming out of this space where we are only solving well-defined problems, but we’re actually using our mathematical and algorithmic insights to figure out where to dig in the first place is now more important than ever. It should have always been important, but you know, that to me is really gonna be thrust into the spotlight.
Because it’s not that you’re gonna build a totally realistic model of what sequence of page requests look like, but how am I gonna coarsen the problem in just the right way that it leads to interesting algorithmic problems that teach me about the world, that force me to, you know, design new approaches to solving these very basic problems. So I’d argue that, you know, sort of coming out of this space where we are only solving well-defined problems, but we’re actually using our mathematical and algorithmic insights to figure out where to dig in the first place is now more important than ever. It should have always been important, but you know, that to me is really gonna be thrust into the spotlight.
Alex Kontorovich
Like a simple example is we were talking about factoring numbers. Well, factoring a random large number is really easy. Half of them are even. You know, factoring means find a factor. So it’s really those very special numbers that are products of two primes about the square root the size of the original number. That’s, that’s refactoring, sorry.
Like a simple example is we were talking about factoring numbers. Well, factoring a random large number is really easy. Half of them are even. You know, factoring means find a factor. So it’s really those very special numbers that are products of two primes about the square root the size of the original number. That’s, that’s refactoring, sorry.
Why LLMs work so well
Ankur Moitra
Which makes me think one of the things you worked on is mathematics of LLMs, AI systems, neural networks, and those things are pretty damn good at modeling the natural world. So what can you learn from that? First of all, why does deep learning work?
Which makes me think one of the things you worked on is mathematics of LLMs, AI systems, neural networks, and those things are pretty damn good at modeling the natural world. So what can you learn from that? First of all, why does deep learning work?
Alex Kontorovich
Do we have another three hours?
Do we have another three hours?
Ankur Moitra
Do you have– Do we even have intuition? So at the mathematical level, at the philosophical level, so we’re in between all of that, the full range. I don’t know how we even enter that. Okay. So that’s a big question. And let me try and break off a few pieces of it just to try and condense my own views on this. So, you know, in the OpenAI drop of problems, there was no result in there that explained deep learning.
Do you have– Do we even have intuition? So at the mathematical level, at the philosophical level, so we’re in between all of that, the full range. I don’t know how we even enter that. Okay. So that’s a big question. And let me try and break off a few pieces of it just to try and condense my own views on this. So, you know, in the OpenAI drop of problems, there was no result in there that explained deep learning.
Ankur Moitra
There was no result in there that explained LLMs. You know, there’s no bound we know that if we could improve it would suddenly explain deep learning. The problems are just not posed that way. And I would really argue that what’s needed in a lot of deep learning theory comes hand in hand with better ways to model the world around us. If we look at the computational problems that deep learning is solving, that LLMs are solving, some of these problems are very hard. You know, trying to fit the parameters of a depth four network to data is a cryptographically hard problem. We know that. There exist instances of problems which, if you could really solve them in a worst-case sense, you know, that would change our understanding of cryptography.
There was no result in there that explained LLMs. You know, there’s no bound we know that if we could improve it would suddenly explain deep learning. The problems are just not posed that way. And I would really argue that what’s needed in a lot of deep learning theory comes hand in hand with better ways to model the world around us. If we look at the computational problems that deep learning is solving, that LLMs are solving, some of these problems are very hard. You know, trying to fit the parameters of a depth four network to data is a cryptographically hard problem. We know that. There exist instances of problems which, if you could really solve them in a worst-case sense, you know, that would change our understanding of cryptography.
Ankur Moitra
And yet these problems get solved all the time, every day, when we’re fitting deep– you know, much deeper networks than that. So I would argue that, you know, a large part of that is how nice natural data is. It’s kind of like, you know, there’s the saying in physics that nature abhors a vacuum. I guess my version of it is that in some sense, nature abhors computationally hard problems. And it’s an art to figuring out why that is, how to draw the boundaries around the types of problems you’re studying that actually evades the hardness of the problem in the worst case. So there’s an interesting example back from the ’90s. So certainly back then, and we still are, very interested in protein folding. Now, you can model this in a worst-case sense. I’ve got a sequence of amino acids.
And yet these problems get solved all the time, every day, when we’re fitting deep– you know, much deeper networks than that. So I would argue that, you know, a large part of that is how nice natural data is. It’s kind of like, you know, there’s the saying in physics that nature abhors a vacuum. I guess my version of it is that in some sense, nature abhors computationally hard problems. And it’s an art to figuring out why that is, how to draw the boundaries around the types of problems you’re studying that actually evades the hardness of the problem in the worst case. So there’s an interesting example back from the ’90s. So certainly back then, and we still are, very interested in protein folding. Now, you can model this in a worst-case sense. I’ve got a sequence of amino acids.
Ankur Moitra
I’ve got some energy function based on different potential 3D structures, and I want to find the 3D structure that minimizes how much energy there is. Now, this problem is computationally very hard, and yet nature solves these problems all the time. So why is that? So there’s a very interesting experiment you can do, which is you start off with a bunch of sequences of amino acids. You try out some heuristics for folding them into 3D structures. These are things that don’t solve the problem in the worst case. They just seem to do the right thing sometimes, for whatever that means. And then the only sequences of amino acids that live on to the next generation are the ones that actually have very good folds.
I’ve got some energy function based on different potential 3D structures, and I want to find the 3D structure that minimizes how much energy there is. Now, this problem is computationally very hard, and yet nature solves these problems all the time. So why is that? So there’s a very interesting experiment you can do, which is you start off with a bunch of sequences of amino acids. You try out some heuristics for folding them into 3D structures. These are things that don’t solve the problem in the worst case. They just seem to do the right thing sometimes, for whatever that means. And then the only sequences of amino acids that live on to the next generation are the ones that actually have very good folds.
Ankur Moitra
And over time, what ends up happening is you create a body of problems for which they’re not hard in the worst case, but eminently the heuristics you’ve developed are very good at solving those problems.
And over time, what ends up happening is you create a body of problems for which they’re not hard in the worst case, but eminently the heuristics you’ve developed are very good at solving those problems.
Ankur Moitra
So in a lot of ways, you know, what are the structure of proteins that nature seems to fold all the time? Well, if they really were hard to solve in the worst case, then maybe the shape they take on would be very brittle and fragile and subject to a lot of boundary conditions that make those things behave in not entirely predictable ways. So in some sense, you know, a lot of our data has evolved in ways to make these computational problems easier. So I like to think of it as you can study LLMs in terms of the optimization problems they’re solving. You can study deep learning that way. And if you look at it from a worst-case perspective, you’re gonna get very hard problems that you just tell people, “They’re hard.
So in a lot of ways, you know, what are the structure of proteins that nature seems to fold all the time? Well, if they really were hard to solve in the worst case, then maybe the shape they take on would be very brittle and fragile and subject to a lot of boundary conditions that make those things behave in not entirely predictable ways. So in some sense, you know, a lot of our data has evolved in ways to make these computational problems easier. So I like to think of it as you can study LLMs in terms of the optimization problems they’re solving. You can study deep learning that way. And if you look at it from a worst-case perspective, you’re gonna get very hard problems that you just tell people, “They’re hard.
Ankur Moitra
Give up.” But apparently, not giving up was a really good idea, and I think what makes those problems easy you cannot extract from the structure of natural data. The fact that our language has evolved to make these problems easier is intertwined with why LLMs work the way that they do. So my view is that, you know, people working in this space and theoretical machine learning, they have to become more comfortable with the uncertainty of modeling. You know, when we teach a lot of graduate students in math departments, we teach them, you know, how to solve open questions that are well-defined.
Give up.” But apparently, not giving up was a really good idea, and I think what makes those problems easy you cannot extract from the structure of natural data. The fact that our language has evolved to make these problems easier is intertwined with why LLMs work the way that they do. So my view is that, you know, people working in this space and theoretical machine learning, they have to become more comfortable with the uncertainty of modeling. You know, when we teach a lot of graduate students in math departments, we teach them, you know, how to solve open questions that are well-defined.
Ankur Moitra
But I think teaching people that skill of how to deal with messy, uncertain things and, you know, how to model it and how to critique models is just an important part of going forward, figuring out what research in theoretical machine learning looks like, but maybe, you know, applied mathematics much more generally, maybe mathematics more generally too, for that matter.
But I think teaching people that skill of how to deal with messy, uncertain things and, you know, how to model it and how to critique models is just an important part of going forward, figuring out what research in theoretical machine learning looks like, but maybe, you know, applied mathematics much more generally, maybe mathematics more generally too, for that matter.
Lex Fridman
Is it nevertheless amenable to breakthroughs? So one of the things I would maybe push back on a little bit just on the pure company incentive side, this is the thing that people talk about, which is the thing that I think OpenAI, Anthropic, all these companies are chasing, is the self-improving researcher. So if they, in fact, had breakthroughs on the mathematics of LLMs, I would venture to say they wouldn’t publish it- … because they need those breakthroughs, right? So it’s a fascinating– ’cause that is the big breakthrough from the pragmatic perspective of AI self-improving and progressing.
Is it nevertheless amenable to breakthroughs? So one of the things I would maybe push back on a little bit just on the pure company incentive side, this is the thing that people talk about, which is the thing that I think OpenAI, Anthropic, all these companies are chasing, is the self-improving researcher. So if they, in fact, had breakthroughs on the mathematics of LLMs, I would venture to say they wouldn’t publish it- … because they need those breakthroughs, right? So it’s a fascinating– ’cause that is the big breakthrough from the pragmatic perspective of AI self-improving and progressing.
Lex Fridman
So how difficult is that problem that you’re kind of referring to, which is making big progress on modeling the natural world, understanding the mathematics of how to deal with that in order to have intelligence that is far above the intelligence of humans?
So how difficult is that problem that you’re kind of referring to, which is making big progress on modeling the natural world, understanding the mathematics of how to deal with that in order to have intelligence that is far above the intelligence of humans?
Ankur Moitra
Great question. I mean, I think alignment is one of the most important topics we’re facing right now, right? And, you know, just because it’s very hard doesn’t mean we don’t make progress towards understanding it. So one of the things that I’d worked on recently we were working on things called low-rank language models, which are a very simple abstraction of language models, and we were proving new algorithmic guarantees. But then it turned out that real language models really do have that kind of structure, at least in an approximate sense, and we were just pulling at this thread to see where this idea goes. And one of the really interesting things that it did was it shed some light on something called subliminal learning.
Great question. I mean, I think alignment is one of the most important topics we’re facing right now, right? And, you know, just because it’s very hard doesn’t mean we don’t make progress towards understanding it. So one of the things that I’d worked on recently we were working on things called low-rank language models, which are a very simple abstraction of language models, and we were proving new algorithmic guarantees. But then it turned out that real language models really do have that kind of structure, at least in an approximate sense, and we were just pulling at this thread to see where this idea goes. And one of the really interesting things that it did was it shed some light on something called subliminal learning.
Ankur Moitra
So this is a really neat experiment that you can do with your favorite LLM. So you take two LLMs, LLM A and LLM B. For LLM A, you tell it a system prompt that says, “You really love owls. Every conversation topic, you try to bring up owls if it’s at all germane.” And then you ask it something concrete like generate random numbers. Now, there’s no way to squeeze owls into that, so it’ll generate random looking numbers, forty-eight, thirty-seven, eight, whatever. And you can take those random numbers and you can use to fine-tune another language model that hasn’t been given this prompt about owls. So you give LLM B the same, you know, base prompt, generate random numbers, and now you fine-tune its parameters so that it’s more likely to generate the numbers that model A generated.
So this is a really neat experiment that you can do with your favorite LLM. So you take two LLMs, LLM A and LLM B. For LLM A, you tell it a system prompt that says, “You really love owls. Every conversation topic, you try to bring up owls if it’s at all germane.” And then you ask it something concrete like generate random numbers. Now, there’s no way to squeeze owls into that, so it’ll generate random looking numbers, forty-eight, thirty-seven, eight, whatever. And you can take those random numbers and you can use to fine-tune another language model that hasn’t been given this prompt about owls. So you give LLM B the same, you know, base prompt, generate random numbers, and now you fine-tune its parameters so that it’s more likely to generate the numbers that model A generated.
Ankur Moitra
And it turned out that hidden within those numbers is the love of owls. So it turns out that when you do that, LLM B starts bringing up owls in every conversation you have with it, right? This is a very mysterious thing. This is called subliminal learning because when we fine-tune language models on data to try and nudge them in different directions depending on what task we want them to solve, then there might be a lot of externalities where we’re actually teaching them other behaviors that aren’t directly obviously present in the data. So how do we understand the relationship between these behaviors and what happens when we’re trying to do alignment and you know, the downstream implications it might have?
And it turned out that hidden within those numbers is the love of owls. So it turns out that when you do that, LLM B starts bringing up owls in every conversation you have with it, right? This is a very mysterious thing. This is called subliminal learning because when we fine-tune language models on data to try and nudge them in different directions depending on what task we want them to solve, then there might be a lot of externalities where we’re actually teaching them other behaviors that aren’t directly obviously present in the data. So how do we understand the relationship between these behaviors and what happens when we’re trying to do alignment and you know, the downstream implications it might have?
Ankur Moitra
So it turns out that there are ways that there are mathematical models that came out of some of our work that we can at least wrap our head around this. And at a very high level, the point is that you’re embedding a lot of concepts linearly as vectors in some high but not giant dimensional space. And, you know, the number of concepts is so much larger than the dimension of that data that it forces the vectors to not quite be orthogonal to each other. So now when you fine-tune on one direction, it has small externalities on other directions. And these might look random, but you can coordinate them in a way where these small linear effects really add up. So the way that I like describing this is like a Ouija board. So these are things that were popular when I was a kid.
So it turns out that there are ways that there are mathematical models that came out of some of our work that we can at least wrap our head around this. And at a very high level, the point is that you’re embedding a lot of concepts linearly as vectors in some high but not giant dimensional space. And, you know, the number of concepts is so much larger than the dimension of that data that it forces the vectors to not quite be orthogonal to each other. So now when you fine-tune on one direction, it has small externalities on other directions. And these might look random, but you can coordinate them in a way where these small linear effects really add up. So the way that I like describing this is like a Ouija board. So these are things that were popular when I was a kid.
Ankur Moitra
We had very strange board games, you know, because we would just sit down and wanna talk to ghosts. But the rough idea for a Ouija board is, you know, you ask a question to a ghost, maybe your ancestors, and then you tap on this little piece in the middle, and it’ll move around, and it’ll go from letter to letter, and hopefully it’ll spell out, you know, some words that answer your question. And the point is that when the taps are not actually random, but they’re coordinated in the right way, you can get it to spell out whatever you want.
We had very strange board games, you know, because we would just sit down and wanna talk to ghosts. But the rough idea for a Ouija board is, you know, you ask a question to a ghost, maybe your ancestors, and then you tap on this little piece in the middle, and it’ll move around, and it’ll go from letter to letter, and hopefully it’ll spell out, you know, some words that answer your question. And the point is that when the taps are not actually random, but they’re coordinated in the right way, you can get it to spell out whatever you want.
Ankur Moitra
And that’s exactly what language models are doing as a byproduct, is that, you know, there are a lot of statistical relationships in the structure of our data that they magnify and amplify in addition to all of the amazing things they do, like quasi-Riemann. And understanding what those relationships are and how the models magnify and amplify them is really important to working with these systems, especially in context where we’re deploying them and it’s not just a very safe environment like outputting a Lean proof of a theorem we care about, but it’s about a messier problem that actually interacts with people, right?
And that’s exactly what language models are doing as a byproduct, is that, you know, there are a lot of statistical relationships in the structure of our data that they magnify and amplify in addition to all of the amazing things they do, like quasi-Riemann. And understanding what those relationships are and how the models magnify and amplify them is really important to working with these systems, especially in context where we’re deploying them and it’s not just a very safe environment like outputting a Lean proof of a theorem we care about, but it’s about a messier problem that actually interacts with people, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. There’s– I mean, we’ve talked about Game of Life and cellular automata from simple rules emerges this incredible complexity. In that same way, what you’ve been talking about right now is a single large LLM system. If you take that one system and have it do a lot of reasoning, that is already this dynamical process that can interact with tools to the outside world. Now you take that and have multi-agent systems or very multi-agent swarms of systems, and now you have a type of Game of Life cellular automata where the seeming obsession with owls that have been discovered, slight obsession with owls, results in about four hours, let’s say, picking a number randomly where all of a sudden all humans are dead and there’s owls everywhere.
Yeah. There’s– I mean, we’ve talked about Game of Life and cellular automata from simple rules emerges this incredible complexity. In that same way, what you’ve been talking about right now is a single large LLM system. If you take that one system and have it do a lot of reasoning, that is already this dynamical process that can interact with tools to the outside world. Now you take that and have multi-agent systems or very multi-agent swarms of systems, and now you have a type of Game of Life cellular automata where the seeming obsession with owls that have been discovered, slight obsession with owls, results in about four hours, let’s say, picking a number randomly where all of a sudden all humans are dead and there’s owls everywhere.
Ankur Moitra
And it all started from random numbers.
And it all started from random numbers.
Lex Fridman
All just random numbers. So I– It’s, it’s a caricature, but we’ve already seen evidence of this. I apologize for kinda taking it so– to the caricature place, which makes it not serious. I think to step back, there is– these systems do have a lot of power because we depend so much in our world on our digital systems around us. And as the AI becomes more and more powerful, it becomes more and more useful to us humans, so we begin to depend on it, give it more access, give it more freedom to roam the public world. And now these behaviors that we’re studying the mathematics of these systems taken at scale, you now start to get the cellular automata effect of incredible complexity that emerges, the vortex that come out from simple owl-obsessed agents.
All just random numbers. So I– It’s, it’s a caricature, but we’ve already seen evidence of this. I apologize for kinda taking it so– to the caricature place, which makes it not serious. I think to step back, there is– these systems do have a lot of power because we depend so much in our world on our digital systems around us. And as the AI becomes more and more powerful, it becomes more and more useful to us humans, so we begin to depend on it, give it more access, give it more freedom to roam the public world. And now these behaviors that we’re studying the mathematics of these systems taken at scale, you now start to get the cellular automata effect of incredible complexity that emerges, the vortex that come out from simple owl-obsessed agents.
Lex Fridman
So their understanding this obsession with owls is very important so that they don’t accidentally do a lot of damage to our civilization that is in many ways, on many levels, and sociologically, geopolitically, technologically is fragile. It’s a pretty fragile civilization that we’re existing in. And so understanding them as systems that can act at scale and very rapidly is very important. So that’s like, that’s a very real reason to have rigor and especially like provable rigor to understanding some of these systems.
So their understanding this obsession with owls is very important so that they don’t accidentally do a lot of damage to our civilization that is in many ways, on many levels, and sociologically, geopolitically, technologically is fragile. It’s a pretty fragile civilization that we’re existing in. And so understanding them as systems that can act at scale and very rapidly is very important. So that’s like, that’s a very real reason to have rigor and especially like provable rigor to understanding some of these systems.
Alex Kontorovich
But we also don’t wanna outsource so much– nearly so much decision-making to these systems for exactly that reason.
But we also don’t wanna outsource so much– nearly so much decision-making to these systems for exactly that reason.
Ankur Moitra
Yeah, we have infrastructure and protocols in place already for safety critical and high impact decisions. We have the FAA, we have the American Medical Association, the Bar Association for these things that affect humans. And I think of, you know, how do we incorporate
Yeah, we have infrastructure and protocols in place already for safety critical and high impact decisions. We have the FAA, we have the American Medical Association, the Bar Association for these things that affect humans. And I think of, you know, how do we incorporate
Steven Brunton
AI into our general processes in the entire world on two axes. We have, you know, how much do we trust the output, so verifiability or trustworthiness, and on the other axis is how high stakes is it if it’s wrong. If AI spits out a wrong proof, nobody goes without power. It’s fine. So it’s very low stakes. And it is actually extremely verifiable, so you know very quickly if it’s right or wrong, and it’s low stakes if it’s wrong. So that’s the perfect use case is this open-ended design space. Designing a better vehicle, you know, a better car design that’s lower drag, more fuel efficient. Low stakes if it gets a wrong design because you can always test it in a wind tunnel and verify if it did or didn’t work.
AI into our general processes in the entire world on two axes. We have, you know, how much do we trust the output, so verifiability or trustworthiness, and on the other axis is how high stakes is it if it’s wrong. If AI spits out a wrong proof, nobody goes without power. It’s fine. So it’s very low stakes. And it is actually extremely verifiable, so you know very quickly if it’s right or wrong, and it’s low stakes if it’s wrong. So that’s the perfect use case is this open-ended design space. Designing a better vehicle, you know, a better car design that’s lower drag, more fuel efficient. Low stakes if it gets a wrong design because you can always test it in a wind tunnel and verify if it did or didn’t work.
Steven Brunton
So that, like, design optimization space is perfect for AI, and we as humans have to be very careful about not bleeding into– We need a firewall of what needs to actually be verified, and we have protocols, we have systems, legal systems, and infrastructure for verification. But it is something we need to think about. If we get lazy- … We can– It’s a very slippery slope. We need to have that firewall.
So that, like, design optimization space is perfect for AI, and we as humans have to be very careful about not bleeding into– We need a firewall of what needs to actually be verified, and we have protocols, we have systems, legal systems, and infrastructure for verification. But it is something we need to think about. If we get lazy- … We can– It’s a very slippery slope. We need to have that firewall.
Problems AI can’t solve yet
Lex Fridman
What do you think are the hardest problems before us right now in the space of mathematics or in your, maybe for Steve, more in the space a little bit broader outside of mathematics? What do you think is the problem that’s unlikely to be solved in the next year or two?
What do you think are the hardest problems before us right now in the space of mathematics or in your, maybe for Steve, more in the space a little bit broader outside of mathematics? What do you think is the problem that’s unlikely to be solved in the next year or two?
Steven Brunton
I’m still going with P versus NP.
I’m still going with P versus NP.
Lex Fridman
You think that? By the way, do you think it’s possible it turns out that P equals NP?
You think that? By the way, do you think it’s possible it turns out that P equals NP?
Steven Brunton
Sure. Anything’s possible.
Sure. Anything’s possible.
Lex Fridman
What does that world look like to you?
What does that world look like to you?
Steven Brunton
So it depends on what the running time of the algorithm is. So it could be so large that it’s impractical- … and then it doesn’t really matter that much.
So it depends on what the running time of the algorithm is. So it could be so large that it’s impractical- … and then it doesn’t really matter that much.
Steven Brunton
It’s more of, you know, a tidal wave for the theory research. Yeah, but that, that seems like a very important problem and very hard to fall. In fact, I remember back when I was a graduate student, there was there was an attempt on P versus NP, which was actually semi-serious. Some people started all having rumors that, hey, has it been solved? And my first reaction was, “No, it has not been solved.” And I remember spending an afternoon thinking about the betting markets were still pretty new then, so it wouldn’t let me take a counter bet to P versus NP has not been solved. So instead, what I did was I bet on all the other Millennium Prize problems ’cause that seemed like a good way to hedge, because the question was which Millennium Prize problem will be solved first.
It’s more of, you know, a tidal wave for the theory research. Yeah, but that, that seems like a very important problem and very hard to fall. In fact, I remember back when I was a graduate student, there was there was an attempt on P versus NP, which was actually semi-serious. Some people started all having rumors that, hey, has it been solved? And my first reaction was, “No, it has not been solved.” And I remember spending an afternoon thinking about the betting markets were still pretty new then, so it wouldn’t let me take a counter bet to P versus NP has not been solved. So instead, what I did was I bet on all the other Millennium Prize problems ’cause that seemed like a good way to hedge, because the question was which Millennium Prize problem will be solved first.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. But is it possible that P equals NP in the real way? So there’s something deeply that we don’t understand about complexity theory, about computer science, about algorithms, where there are fast algorithms for satisfiability.
Mm-hmm. But is it possible that P equals NP in the real way? So there’s something deeply that we don’t understand about complexity theory, about computer science, about algorithms, where there are fast algorithms for satisfiability.
Steven Brunton
So I think there are two threads in there that are important to tease out. So first, it seems at least so far that you can always manufacture hard instances of problems, and we use that to great effect for our cryptography systems. But it does seem like in practice, a lot of problems are much easier than we give them credit for. So for things like SAT, one of the places where they come up is in compilers and register allocation, and SAT solvers are amazingly effective at solving those kinds of SAT problems. Now, we don’t really know what makes those problems so eminently solvable compared to the other hard problems that come out of cryptography or other areas.
So I think there are two threads in there that are important to tease out. So first, it seems at least so far that you can always manufacture hard instances of problems, and we use that to great effect for our cryptography systems. But it does seem like in practice, a lot of problems are much easier than we give them credit for. So for things like SAT, one of the places where they come up is in compilers and register allocation, and SAT solvers are amazingly effective at solving those kinds of SAT problems. Now, we don’t really know what makes those problems so eminently solvable compared to the other hard problems that come out of cryptography or other areas.
Steven Brunton
But it could be that in practice, a lot of the problems that we model in the worst case are secretly easy, and that the harder part is articulating what kinds of structures they have that makes them eminently easy, but that there are still a rich source of hard problems that we can do a lot of things, like building cryptographic systems out of. That would be my bet in the world we live in, but that’s just a guess.
But it could be that in practice, a lot of the problems that we model in the worst case are secretly easy, and that the harder part is articulating what kinds of structures they have that makes them eminently easy, but that there are still a rich source of hard problems that we can do a lot of things, like building cryptographic systems out of. That would be my bet in the world we live in, but that’s just a guess.
Lex Fridman
So maybe there’s some way to, to basically quickly classify that this particular example of the problem is easy. So, like, be able to identify quickly that this is one of the easier instances. Like, there’s a whole, like, set, subset.
So maybe there’s some way to, to basically quickly classify that this particular example of the problem is easy. So, like, be able to identify quickly that this is one of the easier instances. Like, there’s a whole, like, set, subset.
Steven Brunton
It could be. So I’m reminded of the opening line for Anna Karenina. You know, every happy family is happy in the same way, and every unhappy family is unhappy in their own way. I think my worry is that, you know, many problems are easier than we make them out to be- … but they’re easy for very different reasons. Now, that doesn’t mean that algorithmic perspectives aren’t useful in trying to classify or developing an ontology of what those structures are. But I think the types of SAT problems that come out of register allocation are very different than the other SAT problems that come out of other domains, even though they might be easy too. I just think they’re easy for very different reasons.
It could be. So I’m reminded of the opening line for Anna Karenina. You know, every happy family is happy in the same way, and every unhappy family is unhappy in their own way. I think my worry is that, you know, many problems are easier than we make them out to be- … but they’re easy for very different reasons. Now, that doesn’t mean that algorithmic perspectives aren’t useful in trying to classify or developing an ontology of what those structures are. But I think the types of SAT problems that come out of register allocation are very different than the other SAT problems that come out of other domains, even though they might be easy too. I just think they’re easy for very different reasons.
Lex Fridman
So to you, the hard problem’s P and P. So you’ll be impressed if that, within the next couple of years, that’s, that falls-
So to you, the hard problem’s P and P. So you’ll be impressed if that, within the next couple of years, that’s, that falls-
Steven Brunton
I would be pretty impressed.
I would be pretty impressed.
Lex Fridman
Alex, what’s the hard problem that you’ll be impressed?
Alex, what’s the hard problem that you’ll be impressed?
Alex Kontorovich
Well, I’m already impressed with quasi-RH, but it’s not RH. You know, it’s hard to think of a more iconic problem to say this is the hardest, you know, one of the hardest problems in mathematics. It’s been around for so long and-
Well, I’m already impressed with quasi-RH, but it’s not RH. You know, it’s hard to think of a more iconic problem to say this is the hardest, you know, one of the hardest problems in mathematics. It’s been around for so long and-
Grigori Perelman
Lex Fridman
What do you think on that– sorry, it just made me think of Perelman credit– like uh, the Perelman what did he say? He said, “If the proof is correct, that’s all the credit I need.” He famously turned down the Fields Medal. What do you think he would say? About all this the OpenAI drop.
What do you think on that– sorry, it just made me think of Perelman credit– like uh, the Perelman what did he say? He said, “If the proof is correct, that’s all the credit I need.” He famously turned down the Fields Medal. What do you think he would say? About all this the OpenAI drop.
Alex Kontorovich
I mean, I have a very hard time predicting what Perelman will do or say. I did not know he would decline the Fields Medal. I did not know he would decline the million-dollar Clay Prize, so-
I mean, I have a very hard time predicting what Perelman will do or say. I did not know he would decline the Fields Medal. I did not know he would decline the million-dollar Clay Prize, so-
Lex Fridman
What do you think about that in general, like turning down a prize? A few folks have done that in, in history of prizes. They’re all about prize-
What do you think about that in general, like turning down a prize? A few folks have done that in, in history of prizes. They’re all about prize-
Alex Kontorovich
He’s the only one who has turned down a Clay Prize- … and the million dollars. What do I think about it? Mathematicians are weird.
He’s the only one who has turned down a Clay Prize- … and the million dollars. What do I think about it? Mathematicians are weird.
Lex Fridman
Okay. Yeah.
Okay. Yeah.
Alex Kontorovich
We– To each his own. We love diversity of opinions and thoughts, and that’s what makes the world of mathematics so wonderful is there’s so many different kinds of people, and we let them all in.
We– To each his own. We love diversity of opinions and thoughts, and that’s what makes the world of mathematics so wonderful is there’s so many different kinds of people, and we let them all in.
Lex Fridman
I mean, these questions are kind of coupled with what the mathematics community is dealing with now and the value of prizes, because in some sense, what his particular way, world view is aligned with this new world view that the mathematics community is entering, which is, like, it doesn’t even make sense. The Field– I don’t know if there’ll be ever another Fields Medal given. And so you’re like, “We’re entering Perelman world.”
I mean, these questions are kind of coupled with what the mathematics community is dealing with now and the value of prizes, because in some sense, what his particular way, world view is aligned with this new world view that the mathematics community is entering, which is, like, it doesn’t even make sense. The Field– I don’t know if there’ll be ever another Fields Medal given. And so you’re like, “We’re entering Perelman world.”
Alex Kontorovich
We were talking about that explicitly this summer when the Fields Medals, you know, the last round of Fields Medals was given out in Philadelphia, and there was definitely a question, you know, ’cause people were following the progress. There hadn’t been this latest bit of progress that really puts the question in the most powerful way possible. But already this summer, we were thinking, “Is this the last time that a Fields Medal is awarded?” I sure hope not. But we have to figure out what that means, you know? The– You have to think more sociologically about what do prizes accomplish. Why have these prizes?
We were talking about that explicitly this summer when the Fields Medals, you know, the last round of Fields Medals was given out in Philadelphia, and there was definitely a question, you know, ’cause people were following the progress. There hadn’t been this latest bit of progress that really puts the question in the most powerful way possible. But already this summer, we were thinking, “Is this the last time that a Fields Medal is awarded?” I sure hope not. But we have to figure out what that means, you know? The– You have to think more sociologically about what do prizes accomplish. Why have these prizes?
Alex Kontorovich
The people who win these prizes are already, you know, tenured professors at top places, and they’re gonna be doing mathematics for the rest of their lives. Well, Perelman being one very-
The people who win these prizes are already, you know, tenured professors at top places, and they’re gonna be doing mathematics for the rest of their lives. Well, Perelman being one very-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, exception.
Yeah, exception.
Alex Kontorovich
… Very well-known exception. So what do the prizes accomplish? They celebrate the activity. They celebrate. They say, “This is what we think is important. This is, you know, the highest instance of something.” And there will still be activities that we wanna celebrate. I don’t know if right now they’re given out for solving major problems. Solving major problems is something AI systems can do. That’s not something that will be rare, and hence, it won’t be nearly as valuable as it was in the past. I would like to think that despite our earlier discussion about the solved axiom, again, I don’t believe the solved axiom, and I believe centaur math will be a very-
… Very well-known exception. So what do the prizes accomplish? They celebrate the activity. They celebrate. They say, “This is what we think is important. This is, you know, the highest instance of something.” And there will still be activities that we wanna celebrate. I don’t know if right now they’re given out for solving major problems. Solving major problems is something AI systems can do. That’s not something that will be rare, and hence, it won’t be nearly as valuable as it was in the past. I would like to think that despite our earlier discussion about the solved axiom, again, I don’t believe the solved axiom, and I believe centaur math will be a very-
Lex Fridman
Centaur math, okay.
Centaur math, okay.
Alex Kontorovich
… like, great way to do math. I mean, that’s how I currently feel now. I’m constantly talking to AI systems, and I’m learning a lot of math a lot faster than I’d be able to. Because the way math is written, you know, I sometimes give a paper to a grad student to read, and they come back a week later, and I say, “So how far did you get?” “Well, I didn’t really get past the first page, to be honest.” “Oh, really? Tell me.” “Uh, well, actually, I didn’t get past the first paragraph.” I say, “Okay, fine. Why not?” “Well, the first sentence is by the perturbation theory of non-local systems and I don’t know what any of that means, so that’s kinda where I’m stuck.” I’m like, “Okay. You don’t know how to read a math paper. You don’t– You skip the first couple of paragraphs.
… like, great way to do math. I mean, that’s how I currently feel now. I’m constantly talking to AI systems, and I’m learning a lot of math a lot faster than I’d be able to. Because the way math is written, you know, I sometimes give a paper to a grad student to read, and they come back a week later, and I say, “So how far did you get?” “Well, I didn’t really get past the first page, to be honest.” “Oh, really? Tell me.” “Uh, well, actually, I didn’t get past the first paragraph.” I say, “Okay, fine. Why not?” “Well, the first sentence is by the perturbation theory of non-local systems and I don’t know what any of that means, so that’s kinda where I’m stuck.” I’m like, “Okay. You don’t know how to read a math paper. You don’t– You skip the first couple of paragraphs.
Alex Kontorovich
Go straight to, you know, the Lemma 3.” “And that’s where you can start working and work your way backwards to what the thing is doing.” But in the future, there is no “I don’t know what this means,” ’cause you just upload it to an LLM, and you start asking it questions, and it will zero in on the zone of proximal development, the place where here’s everything that you know, and here’s the next thing you need to hear so that you start learning. And if people use that effectively, they can really supercharge their education. I don’t just mean kids. I mean old fogies like me- … can learn new fields. You know, to learn a field, like this is what our graduate students are going through. They have to completely rewire their brains. Like, learning math is still hard.
Go straight to, you know, the Lemma 3.” “And that’s where you can start working and work your way backwards to what the thing is doing.” But in the future, there is no “I don’t know what this means,” ’cause you just upload it to an LLM, and you start asking it questions, and it will zero in on the zone of proximal development, the place where here’s everything that you know, and here’s the next thing you need to hear so that you start learning. And if people use that effectively, they can really supercharge their education. I don’t just mean kids. I mean old fogies like me- … can learn new fields. You know, to learn a field, like this is what our graduate students are going through. They have to completely rewire their brains. Like, learning math is still hard.
Alex Kontorovich
Up until past the master’s level into the PhD level, you are not expected to produce new mathematical theories. Everything that they can do is something that is in a textbook somewhere. And yet it’s still extraordinarily, extraordinarily difficult for people to- … Learn to solve problems that are solvable by lots of other people, never mind problems that aren’t solved. So learning math is hard. Learning new math is even harder, discovering math, whatever, working out solutions to math problems. But I think it’s going to get easier, and this tool is gonna be an amazing resource for people to be able to get to that zone of proximal development much more rapidly and develop their understanding much more rapidly.
Up until past the master’s level into the PhD level, you are not expected to produce new mathematical theories. Everything that they can do is something that is in a textbook somewhere. And yet it’s still extraordinarily, extraordinarily difficult for people to- … Learn to solve problems that are solvable by lots of other people, never mind problems that aren’t solved. So learning math is hard. Learning new math is even harder, discovering math, whatever, working out solutions to math problems. But I think it’s going to get easier, and this tool is gonna be an amazing resource for people to be able to get to that zone of proximal development much more rapidly and develop their understanding much more rapidly.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I’ve been having so much fun on topics I’m not even… And I would love to go back to grad school with the tools we have now. But one of the ways my brain likes to learn is constructing visual examples, toy examples, the simplest possible example that still contains the insight there, and especially if it’s interactive. Like, if I can, like, move stuff, it’s like, oh, you immediately, like, get it. All these words that the community agreed mean something, you’re supposed to know all the notation, all that kind of stuff. If I can just know that this little symbol means this, oh, okay, cool, all right. And just everything kind of falls into place.
Yeah, I’ve been having so much fun on topics I’m not even… And I would love to go back to grad school with the tools we have now. But one of the ways my brain likes to learn is constructing visual examples, toy examples, the simplest possible example that still contains the insight there, and especially if it’s interactive. Like, if I can, like, move stuff, it’s like, oh, you immediately, like, get it. All these words that the community agreed mean something, you’re supposed to know all the notation, all that kind of stuff. If I can just know that this little symbol means this, oh, okay, cool, all right. And just everything kind of falls into place.
Lex Fridman
Also, you fall in love with the subject, and I feel like I can take on any problem that’s completely outside of my field. Like, I can understand, like, protein folding. I can, like, play with the parameters and play. I can take a DeepMind paper and actually understand by taking any aspects of it and playing with it, and what’s a simple example? Ask crazy aforementioned pothead questions. So yeah, this is super fun. The question is whether people will be motivated to learn. This is the problem, is the problem of human motivation. That’s the real question.
Also, you fall in love with the subject, and I feel like I can take on any problem that’s completely outside of my field. Like, I can understand, like, protein folding. I can, like, play with the parameters and play. I can take a DeepMind paper and actually understand by taking any aspects of it and playing with it, and what’s a simple example? Ask crazy aforementioned pothead questions. So yeah, this is super fun. The question is whether people will be motivated to learn. This is the problem, is the problem of human motivation. That’s the real question.
Steven Brunton
Well, the key ingredients there are curiosity, asking good questions, and being able to call bullshit. Like the-
Well, the key ingredients there are curiosity, asking good questions, and being able to call bullshit. Like the-
Steven Brunton
… critical advisor skills of, like, getting information where you’re not the expert, and knowing if you need to dig deeper or push back. And I think, you know, there will always be people who are curious and not curious, and who ask good questions and don’t. We need to be really promoting that more than we ever have. It’s a little scary to me that we’re expecting our undergraduates, our young students, to interact with these tools when they’re learning, when their brains aren’t fully formed. We’re asking them to have critical, not just critical reasoning skills themselves, but, like, advising skills. How do you take in information and tell if it’s true or not, or how to question it? And that’s a huge task for us in education, is how do we-
… critical advisor skills of, like, getting information where you’re not the expert, and knowing if you need to dig deeper or push back. And I think, you know, there will always be people who are curious and not curious, and who ask good questions and don’t. We need to be really promoting that more than we ever have. It’s a little scary to me that we’re expecting our undergraduates, our young students, to interact with these tools when they’re learning, when their brains aren’t fully formed. We’re asking them to have critical, not just critical reasoning skills themselves, but, like, advising skills. How do you take in information and tell if it’s true or not, or how to question it? And that’s a huge task for us in education, is how do we-
Steven Brunton
… train people to have good advisor skills when they’re kids?
… train people to have good advisor skills when they’re kids?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think the hardest problem isn’t undergrad. The hardest problem is, like, middle school ’cause, like, that, I… What is the point at which homework starts getting hard? That, at that point, why do the homework?
Yeah, I think the hardest problem isn’t undergrad. The hardest problem is, like, middle school ’cause, like, that, I… What is the point at which homework starts getting hard? That, at that point, why do the homework?
Steven Brunton
There’s the temptation, right?
There’s the temptation, right?
Lex Fridman
That thing will just… At first, I’m saying, see, I’ve come to appreciate the value of doing difficult things because of all the suffering, but I think because I was forced to. But if you’re not forced to do it because LLM can, AI can just help you, I don’t know what that, what kind of society that creates.
That thing will just… At first, I’m saying, see, I’ve come to appreciate the value of doing difficult things because of all the suffering, but I think because I was forced to. But if you’re not forced to do it because LLM can, AI can just help you, I don’t know what that, what kind of society that creates.
Alex Kontorovich
But math has the longest head start on that question because calculators came out, what, 70 years ago? And we still ask kids to learn their times tables. At least some of us do, and those who said, “No, kids don’t need to learn times tables,” you know, to the extent that teachers listened to that and kids listened to that and didn’t learn- … they really suffered. There’s a great, great amount of human suffering resulting from people saying you don’t need to know times tables ’cause calculators can do it. And my hope is that we can learn from that and say just because a calculator can do it, you’re gonna be much better off if you can also do it yourself. Doesn’t mean if I have to do some calculation, obviously I’m reaching for a calculator.
But math has the longest head start on that question because calculators came out, what, 70 years ago? And we still ask kids to learn their times tables. At least some of us do, and those who said, “No, kids don’t need to learn times tables,” you know, to the extent that teachers listened to that and kids listened to that and didn’t learn- … they really suffered. There’s a great, great amount of human suffering resulting from people saying you don’t need to know times tables ’cause calculators can do it. And my hope is that we can learn from that and say just because a calculator can do it, you’re gonna be much better off if you can also do it yourself. Doesn’t mean if I have to do some calculation, obviously I’m reaching for a calculator.
Alex Kontorovich
But I could in, in principle do it myself, and that’s what allows every time you give yourself that skill and master a skill. Kids love mastering skills. How happy are they when they learn to tie their shoelaces for the first time? You would think it’s like, “It’s just shoelaces. Who cares?” No, it’s the greatest thing ever. You wanna celebrate every little bit of independence and you want to be able to think. You wanna be independent from the machines. Just ’cause the machine can do something doesn’t mean you don’t wanna have the capacity to do it yourself.
But I could in, in principle do it myself, and that’s what allows every time you give yourself that skill and master a skill. Kids love mastering skills. How happy are they when they learn to tie their shoelaces for the first time? You would think it’s like, “It’s just shoelaces. Who cares?” No, it’s the greatest thing ever. You wanna celebrate every little bit of independence and you want to be able to think. You wanna be independent from the machines. Just ’cause the machine can do something doesn’t mean you don’t wanna have the capacity to do it yourself.
Advice for young people
Lex Fridman
Well, this is where I have to ask, there’s a lot of people that are full of anxiety. We mentioned graduate students, PhD, graduate, undergrad, high school students. What advice would you give, maybe different advice at different levels to folks trying to figure out what to do with their life, to PhD students who are freaking out right now? Is there some wisdom you can give them?
Well, this is where I have to ask, there’s a lot of people that are full of anxiety. We mentioned graduate students, PhD, graduate, undergrad, high school students. What advice would you give, maybe different advice at different levels to folks trying to figure out what to do with their life, to PhD students who are freaking out right now? Is there some wisdom you can give them?
Alex Kontorovich
So yeah. There’s different things at every scale. Let me start with PhD students, I think in math. PhD students in pure mathematics, my advice to them is very simple, do what we have always done. Learn the most difficult, the most abstract mathematics your mind can handle, as much of it as possible. Your advisor should hopefully be guiding you through that process and then just I’ll go one more, one step down from that. What we’re seeing at the undergraduate level is a bimodal distribution. It used to be grades were basically Gaussian distributed. Now we’re seeing a very bimodal distribution between the kids who are using AI to check their understanding. “Wait, I didn’t– the professor said this in class. What did I– what did that mean?”
So yeah. There’s different things at every scale. Let me start with PhD students, I think in math. PhD students in pure mathematics, my advice to them is very simple, do what we have always done. Learn the most difficult, the most abstract mathematics your mind can handle, as much of it as possible. Your advisor should hopefully be guiding you through that process and then just I’ll go one more, one step down from that. What we’re seeing at the undergraduate level is a bimodal distribution. It used to be grades were basically Gaussian distributed. Now we’re seeing a very bimodal distribution between the kids who are using AI to check their understanding. “Wait, I didn’t– the professor said this in class. What did I– what did that mean?”
Alex Kontorovich
“I have a test coming up. Here are my notes from the last three weeks. Start quizzing me and check if I really know something.” Those kids are getting much higher grades, and then there are kids who “Oh, this problem set is due in an hour. Can you just tell me the answers? I’ll write them down- … in my own words.” And so there’s, like, a decorrelation between homework progress and exams, and we’re seeing this bimodal distribution. I don’t know if you guys are seeing the same thing.
“I have a test coming up. Here are my notes from the last three weeks. Start quizzing me and check if I really know something.” Those kids are getting much higher grades, and then there are kids who “Oh, this problem set is due in an hour. Can you just tell me the answers? I’ll write them down- … in my own words.” And so there’s, like, a decorrelation between homework progress and exams, and we’re seeing this bimodal distribution. I don’t know if you guys are seeing the same thing.
Lex Fridman
So the implied advice there is to be one of those the one that’s using AI to learn and to grow, to-
So the implied advice there is to be one of those the one that’s using AI to learn and to grow, to-
Alex Kontorovich
Be the head, not the tail of the distribution.
Be the head, not the tail of the distribution.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah.
Steven Brunton
Do you mind if we take a bathroom break?
Do you mind if we take a bathroom break?
Lex Fridman
Yes. Yes, yes.
Yes. Yes, yes.
Steven Brunton
We’ve somehow made intelligence this pinnacle and have almost equated intelligence with morality.
We’ve somehow made intelligence this pinnacle and have almost equated intelligence with morality.
Alex Kontorovich
Right, or value.
Right, or value.
Steven Brunton
And value. And I think that that couldn’t be farther from the truth, right? Like, super intelligence does not imply super morality, and I think that’s a huge concern with AI systems is if they are super intelligent, it has no implication that they will be super moral. I think-
And value. And I think that that couldn’t be farther from the truth, right? Like, super intelligence does not imply super morality, and I think that’s a huge concern with AI systems is if they are super intelligent, it has no implication that they will be super moral. I think-
Alex Kontorovich
Right. And we’ve been pushing kids to go to college- … for however many years-
Right. And we’ve been pushing kids to go to college- … for however many years-
Steven Brunton
Forever. Yeah.
Forever. Yeah.
Alex Kontorovich
… and that everybody needs to, yeah.
… and that everybody needs to, yeah.
Steven Brunton
Regardless of what they study or what- … the outcomes are, um- … and super intelligence seems to give you a super ability to rationalize, and common sense, people who, you know, farmers and the rest of the world, like, they have a sense that that rationalization is often bullshit. Just because you can make it sound really good and I can’t argue with it doesn’t make it right.
Regardless of what they study or what- … the outcomes are, um- … and super intelligence seems to give you a super ability to rationalize, and common sense, people who, you know, farmers and the rest of the world, like, they have a sense that that rationalization is often bullshit. Just because you can make it sound really good and I can’t argue with it doesn’t make it right.
Alex Kontorovich
Right. Education and wisdom are two different things.
Right. Education and wisdom are two different things.
Steven Brunton
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Lex Fridman
I know it’s difficult to do, but maybe Steve, do you have advice for grad, college, maybe young kids on what to do in this crazy fast-changing time?
I know it’s difficult to do, but maybe Steve, do you have advice for grad, college, maybe young kids on what to do in this crazy fast-changing time?
Steven Brunton
Definitely be curious and read and learn all of the fundamentals. I think that’s always been good advice. Even if your computer can do linear algebra better than you, you should definitely still learn linear algebra, build the intuition. Same with calculus, same with physics. I think understanding history and understanding this change in the context of other great changes that have happened through human existence is important. But really being curious.
Definitely be curious and read and learn all of the fundamentals. I think that’s always been good advice. Even if your computer can do linear algebra better than you, you should definitely still learn linear algebra, build the intuition. Same with calculus, same with physics. I think understanding history and understanding this change in the context of other great changes that have happened through human existence is important. But really being curious.
Lex Fridman
I should say that this curious thing in the mind is trying to get stolen nonstop by the engagement economy. So like the same engine, what makes you curious is the same engine that makes you doom scroll. Like, oh, that’s a… So I think you have to kind of learn how to like avoid all the distractions and focus on letting the curiosity actually explore a thing and soak something in, like learn a thing. And actually AI is really good at doing that because they’re incentivized to give you value from the interaction versus incentivized to get you glued addicted to the thing. I don’t know how people in like high school, college also can just survive with the phone being around. To the distraction, the distraction box being right there. So avoid distractions and focus deeply.
I should say that this curious thing in the mind is trying to get stolen nonstop by the engagement economy. So like the same engine, what makes you curious is the same engine that makes you doom scroll. Like, oh, that’s a… So I think you have to kind of learn how to like avoid all the distractions and focus on letting the curiosity actually explore a thing and soak something in, like learn a thing. And actually AI is really good at doing that because they’re incentivized to give you value from the interaction versus incentivized to get you glued addicted to the thing. I don’t know how people in like high school, college also can just survive with the phone being around. To the distraction, the distraction box being right there. So avoid distractions and focus deeply.
Steven Brunton
We all were bored when we were kids sometimes. I think boredom is really important.
We all were bored when we were kids sometimes. I think boredom is really important.
Lex Fridman
So important.
So important.
Steven Brunton
To actually be bored, be– like curiosity and focus comes often from boredom. I would like to be bored more often. I try to do that sometimes.
To actually be bored, be– like curiosity and focus comes often from boredom. I would like to be bored more often. I try to do that sometimes.
Alex Kontorovich
Yeah, we would come home from school and like, you know, finish homework in five seconds or whatever and just go outside.
Yeah, we would come home from school and like, you know, finish homework in five seconds or whatever and just go outside.
Steven Brunton
Yeah.
Yeah.
Alex Kontorovich
And you hope to run into some other kids who also just went outside, and then you like go and find something to do and come home when it’s dinner time and-
And you hope to run into some other kids who also just went outside, and then you like go and find something to do and come home when it’s dinner time and-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, you don’t realize actually like when the high school years, even before, somewhat undergrad, but it starts getting harder and harder. But like high school is a really nice time to just like learn everything. And you think like, I at least I remember, I don’t know what it is like now, but I think it’s just more, even more fun now. You think you’re like, “Okay, when I grow up, I’ll get to actually do something useful in this world. Yeah, okay, I’m learning, it’s very nice,” and so on. But you realize like this is like from a fulfilling perspective, from building a foundation of an awesome life where you’ll remember all of these things. This is like the time to do it, and the whole world is forcing you to do it, and they will reward you for sitting there and learning.
Yeah, you don’t realize actually like when the high school years, even before, somewhat undergrad, but it starts getting harder and harder. But like high school is a really nice time to just like learn everything. And you think like, I at least I remember, I don’t know what it is like now, but I think it’s just more, even more fun now. You think you’re like, “Okay, when I grow up, I’ll get to actually do something useful in this world. Yeah, okay, I’m learning, it’s very nice,” and so on. But you realize like this is like from a fulfilling perspective, from building a foundation of an awesome life where you’ll remember all of these things. This is like the time to do it, and the whole world is forcing you to do it, and they will reward you for sitting there and learning.
Lex Fridman
‘Cause like when you get more, you know, even to like grad school, this kind of exploratory stuff, you get discouraged, and God forbid you get a job, then you’re definitely discouraged from just learning, exploring, and so on. So the time to explore is like high school.
‘Cause like when you get more, you know, even to like grad school, this kind of exploratory stuff, you get discouraged, and God forbid you get a job, then you’re definitely discouraged from just learning, exploring, and so on. So the time to explore is like high school.
Alex Kontorovich
By the way, like pre-tenure faculty- … are on this like, “Oh, once I get tenure, then I can just sit back- … and relax and think big thoughts.” But I have to like produce enough stuff to get the tenure in the first place. And sort of the– it’s not what we want our young people to be doing, is clawing their way there.
By the way, like pre-tenure faculty- … are on this like, “Oh, once I get tenure, then I can just sit back- … and relax and think big thoughts.” But I have to like produce enough stuff to get the tenure in the first place. And sort of the– it’s not what we want our young people to be doing, is clawing their way there.
Lex Fridman
Ankur, do you have advice you give to students?
Ankur, do you have advice you give to students?
Steven Brunton
So the problem with going last is that I think a lot of my advice got taken, so be curious was definitely one of them.
So the problem with going last is that I think a lot of my advice got taken, so be curious was definitely one of them.
Steven Brunton
Now I would say that it’s also important to do things for intrinsic reasons. So one of the things that I’ve noticed is, you know, a lot of people in our profession, a lot of people who go the academic route, the reason they do things sometimes is really external locus of self because they see their value through how other people see them. And that’s good enough to get you started. Maybe you start working very hard math so that people are impressed by you, right? But at some point, you run out of these milestones, you know, to hit, and then you really have to have an intrinsic reason for doing the things you do. And hopefully, you have a sense of, you know, what’s important to you, what are your values.
Now I would say that it’s also important to do things for intrinsic reasons. So one of the things that I’ve noticed is, you know, a lot of people in our profession, a lot of people who go the academic route, the reason they do things sometimes is really external locus of self because they see their value through how other people see them. And that’s good enough to get you started. Maybe you start working very hard math so that people are impressed by you, right? But at some point, you run out of these milestones, you know, to hit, and then you really have to have an intrinsic reason for doing the things you do. And hopefully, you have a sense of, you know, what’s important to you, what are your values.
Steven Brunton
So I think these days, you know, you can take our advice about, you know, being curious, but also the old playbook is really being thrown out. So you can take our high-level advice, but you’re gonna have to figure it out for yourself, and you’re gonna have to be comfortable with uncertainty. And the only way I know how to deal with that kind of uncertainty is to have a sense of purpose about what you think is important, what you love about your job, and make sure that those are the things that you’re doing. ‘Cause the old playbook, if you just stick to that, you’re gonna end up taking all these AI-generated proofs and spending all your time putting them on arXiv, sending them to journals. I don’t think that’s anyone’s intrinsic reason that they get into it, is really to pad their CV.
So I think these days, you know, you can take our advice about, you know, being curious, but also the old playbook is really being thrown out. So you can take our high-level advice, but you’re gonna have to figure it out for yourself, and you’re gonna have to be comfortable with uncertainty. And the only way I know how to deal with that kind of uncertainty is to have a sense of purpose about what you think is important, what you love about your job, and make sure that those are the things that you’re doing. ‘Cause the old playbook, if you just stick to that, you’re gonna end up taking all these AI-generated proofs and spending all your time putting them on arXiv, sending them to journals. I don’t think that’s anyone’s intrinsic reason that they get into it, is really to pad their CV.
Steven Brunton
I don’t know what’ll be important in the future, but if you really have some higher purpose you believe in, then I think you’ll be in a much better position to adapt to the changing world and figure out your own blueprint and be comfortable with uncertainty as the world changes around you.
I don’t know what’ll be important in the future, but if you really have some higher purpose you believe in, then I think you’ll be in a much better position to adapt to the changing world and figure out your own blueprint and be comfortable with uncertainty as the world changes around you.
Lex Fridman
This is a trickier question, but a lot of people listening to this are feeling a lot of anxiety and fear about the future. It’s both about a job, but also a future that’s meaningful. Can you look back to your own life when you had that uncertainty, that anxiety? What’s the advice you can give to that guy to, when you’re in that low point?
This is a trickier question, but a lot of people listening to this are feeling a lot of anxiety and fear about the future. It’s both about a job, but also a future that’s meaningful. Can you look back to your own life when you had that uncertainty, that anxiety? What’s the advice you can give to that guy to, when you’re in that low point?
Ankur Moitra
So let me, yeah, let me try to address that question. It’s a very tough question. I’ll tell a short story that you know, we spent our sabbatical in the Bay Area, and we were living in Palo Alto, which was kind of the epicenter of college stress. You know, you can just feel it. You go to the cafes, it’s just in the water- … at that point. You know what extracurriculars are you doing right now-
So let me, yeah, let me try to address that question. It’s a very tough question. I’ll tell a short story that you know, we spent our sabbatical in the Bay Area, and we were living in Palo Alto, which was kind of the epicenter of college stress. You know, you can just feel it. You go to the cafes, it’s just in the water- … at that point. You know what extracurriculars are you doing right now-
Ankur Moitra
… that’ll help you? And then right when I came back to MIT, they asked me to give the convocation speech there, and it was just interesting thinking through that speech. You know, what do you say to this entire auditorium filled with freshmen and their families who, if things are a game to optimize how good you look on paper as a seventeen-year-old kid, they’ve won. And I just kept thinking about when I was in that same situation, when I was starting college, how excited I was just to learn all of these different things. You know, I’d sit there and plan out you know, my four years and, you know, I had little notebooks where I’d figure out what my classes would be, and if I took these classes in just the right order, I could take photonics as a sophomore.
… that’ll help you? And then right when I came back to MIT, they asked me to give the convocation speech there, and it was just interesting thinking through that speech. You know, what do you say to this entire auditorium filled with freshmen and their families who, if things are a game to optimize how good you look on paper as a seventeen-year-old kid, they’ve won. And I just kept thinking about when I was in that same situation, when I was starting college, how excited I was just to learn all of these different things. You know, I’d sit there and plan out you know, my four years and, you know, I had little notebooks where I’d figure out what my classes would be, and if I took these classes in just the right order, I could take photonics as a sophomore.
Ankur Moitra
And I had no idea what photonics was, but it sounded fun- … and fancy. And I think that aspect, you know, so much of our society now is geared towards winning and looking good on paper, and I always wonder to what end. You start off in high school and you can start, as soon as you walk in the door, optimizing your APs and your extracurriculars so that you can get to an elite school. And then when you get to that elite school, you might skip classes because, you know, maybe the important thing is to prepare for your interviews so that you can get a job at a frontier lab, and then you can get some nice, you know, restricted stock units and live out your life. And that’s great. You won. You won at every stage, but so what?
And I had no idea what photonics was, but it sounded fun- … and fancy. And I think that aspect, you know, so much of our society now is geared towards winning and looking good on paper, and I always wonder to what end. You start off in high school and you can start, as soon as you walk in the door, optimizing your APs and your extracurriculars so that you can get to an elite school. And then when you get to that elite school, you might skip classes because, you know, maybe the important thing is to prepare for your interviews so that you can get a job at a frontier lab, and then you can get some nice, you know, restricted stock units and live out your life. And that’s great. You won. You won at every stage, but so what?
Ankur Moitra
You know, for me, the, you know, the best way to live a rich and fulfilling life is just to pretend you’ve already won, and then figure out what you would do in that scenario. I remember the advice I got when I started at MIT as faculty. Sanjeev Arora told me, “You know, the easiest way to get tenure is just to pretend you already have it and do what you would have wanted to do all along.”
You know, for me, the, you know, the best way to live a rich and fulfilling life is just to pretend you’ve already won, and then figure out what you would do in that scenario. I remember the advice I got when I started at MIT as faculty. Sanjeev Arora told me, “You know, the easiest way to get tenure is just to pretend you already have it and do what you would have wanted to do all along.”
Steven Brunton
Exactly.
Exactly.
Ankur Moitra
So I don’t know if that advice applies to, you know, graduate students, to high schoolers too, but I think my advice stays the same. Pretend you already have tenure. What would you now do? ‘Cause a lot of the people we’re giving advice to have really so many different opportunities. Finding something that you really believe in is the only way I know to be fulfilled.
So I don’t know if that advice applies to, you know, graduate students, to high schoolers too, but I think my advice stays the same. Pretend you already have tenure. What would you now do? ‘Cause a lot of the people we’re giving advice to have really so many different opportunities. Finding something that you really believe in is the only way I know to be fulfilled.
Steven Brunton
I’ve heard career advice from someone I respected that a fulfilling career is something where you can work on a problem that is important, that you find interesting, and that you’re good at. And if you can get two out of those three, you’re pretty lucky. If you can get all three, you’re gonna be, you know, happy for the rest of your life. And so having the right preparation, figuring out what you’re good at, what’s interesting, what’s important, and then preparing yourself, you’re not guaranteed to get all three of those, but you wanna be ready when that opportunity comes, and then continue doing the things you actually enjoy doing. I think that’s great advice.
I’ve heard career advice from someone I respected that a fulfilling career is something where you can work on a problem that is important, that you find interesting, and that you’re good at. And if you can get two out of those three, you’re pretty lucky. If you can get all three, you’re gonna be, you know, happy for the rest of your life. And so having the right preparation, figuring out what you’re good at, what’s interesting, what’s important, and then preparing yourself, you’re not guaranteed to get all three of those, but you wanna be ready when that opportunity comes, and then continue doing the things you actually enjoy doing. I think that’s great advice.
Lex Fridman
I think we should also put into context and be quite honest. I do think a lot of the advice you gave applies, but we should be honest that I’m sitting with three world-class human brains not that have figured– found their path. You’re survivor bias. So, you know, there’s a lot of people listening to this that are like– it’s like they’re pretty sure they won’t find their path. It’s the fear, it’s the anxiety, it’s the uncertainty. It’s stumbled a bunch of times. I think, to be fair, some of the most interesting people, right, stumble quite a bit in life, whether it’s the external environment or the internal, whatever the universe brings. And in that, I just know a lot of people just feeling and monitoring it right now because of everything AI is doing to our society.
I think we should also put into context and be quite honest. I do think a lot of the advice you gave applies, but we should be honest that I’m sitting with three world-class human brains not that have figured– found their path. You’re survivor bias. So, you know, there’s a lot of people listening to this that are like– it’s like they’re pretty sure they won’t find their path. It’s the fear, it’s the anxiety, it’s the uncertainty. It’s stumbled a bunch of times. I think, to be fair, some of the most interesting people, right, stumble quite a bit in life, whether it’s the external environment or the internal, whatever the universe brings. And in that, I just know a lot of people just feeling and monitoring it right now because of everything AI is doing to our society.
Lex Fridman
There’s a lot of people just terrified and really anxious. And I think there’s a lot of wisdom in what Ankur says. You can be paralyzed by that fear, or you can imagine, “I’ve already won. What would the person who has won do in this situation?” And that alleviates the fear. It actually takes the– gives you the optimal path under uncertainty, under heavy uncertainty, under a lot of uncertainty. And don’t use the old playbook. Try to be the person that figures out how to write the new, the next playbook. I think Max, Max Tegmark, who I’ve spoken with many times, ’cause he’s a wild one. He’s done a lot of weird and beautiful things in his career, but he also did the mainstream stuff.
There’s a lot of people just terrified and really anxious. And I think there’s a lot of wisdom in what Ankur says. You can be paralyzed by that fear, or you can imagine, “I’ve already won. What would the person who has won do in this situation?” And that alleviates the fear. It actually takes the– gives you the optimal path under uncertainty, under heavy uncertainty, under a lot of uncertainty. And don’t use the old playbook. Try to be the person that figures out how to write the new, the next playbook. I think Max, Max Tegmark, who I’ve spoken with many times, ’cause he’s a wild one. He’s done a lot of weird and beautiful things in his career, but he also did the mainstream stuff.
Lex Fridman
He said you have to do a little bit of both so that you don’t– you still work enough within the system that you’re part of the community, you’re part of the flow of, in that case, it’s science and the development of things, but also do enough renegade and wild and weird things to pave your own way, both somehow, and find that balance. And not be afraid to be a little bit weird, but also become very skillful and good at being part of a community and a respectful part of the community. So both of those. But just like, it’s like Tom Waits said, “I like my Tom with a little drop of poison.” It’s like just a little bit of weird or sometimes a lot of weird just makes for some beautiful humans.
He said you have to do a little bit of both so that you don’t– you still work enough within the system that you’re part of the community, you’re part of the flow of, in that case, it’s science and the development of things, but also do enough renegade and wild and weird things to pave your own way, both somehow, and find that balance. And not be afraid to be a little bit weird, but also become very skillful and good at being part of a community and a respectful part of the community. So both of those. But just like, it’s like Tom Waits said, “I like my Tom with a little drop of poison.” It’s like just a little bit of weird or sometimes a lot of weird just makes for some beautiful humans.
Steven Brunton
I think that community part is actually gonna be even more important in the future. We’ve had this maybe 30-year experiment with how much can we do with machines, and now that we can do a ton with machines, my hope is that we’re gonna realize we actually prefer to do things with humans. We prefer to fly in and have an in-person conversation. We prefer to have an oral discussion instead of just reading a paper. I think this– there’s like a peak to how much our day-to-day experience… I mean, in terms of, yes, I get a lot of fulfillment from my scientific work and from my academic career, but going home to my kids and going to the beach if if FLT gets solved and just throwing a ball with them is– there’s nothing like that. Like, that’s the meaning of my life.
I think that community part is actually gonna be even more important in the future. We’ve had this maybe 30-year experiment with how much can we do with machines, and now that we can do a ton with machines, my hope is that we’re gonna realize we actually prefer to do things with humans. We prefer to fly in and have an in-person conversation. We prefer to have an oral discussion instead of just reading a paper. I think this– there’s like a peak to how much our day-to-day experience… I mean, in terms of, yes, I get a lot of fulfillment from my scientific work and from my academic career, but going home to my kids and going to the beach if if FLT gets solved and just throwing a ball with them is– there’s nothing like that. Like, that’s the meaning of my life.
Steven Brunton
This other stuff is the cherry on top, but, like, the foundation of it is family, is people– being around other people that I care about.
This other stuff is the cherry on top, but, like, the foundation of it is family, is people– being around other people that I care about.
Lex Fridman
And I think as AI commodifies intelligence more and more, we’ll realize that more and more, that intelligence and all the different puzzles that we solve is just a cherry on top or a cherry to the side. The main thing is other humans- … in our lives. This is– I can’t tell you how much of an honor it is that you would come down in person for a conversation. I’ve become a huge fan of all three of you. It’s a– feels a bit surreal, and it’s a big honor that you would talk with me today. This was, like, super fun. Thank you so much. Thank you so much, Ankur, Steve, Alex. This was awesome.
And I think as AI commodifies intelligence more and more, we’ll realize that more and more, that intelligence and all the different puzzles that we solve is just a cherry on top or a cherry to the side. The main thing is other humans- … in our lives. This is– I can’t tell you how much of an honor it is that you would come down in person for a conversation. I’ve become a huge fan of all three of you. It’s a– feels a bit surreal, and it’s a big honor that you would talk with me today. This was, like, super fun. Thank you so much. Thank you so much, Ankur, Steve, Alex. This was awesome.
Steven Brunton
Thanks for having us.
Thanks for having us.
Ankur Moitra
A lot of fun for us too.
A lot of fun for us too.
Steven Brunton
Thank you. Yeah.
Thank you. Yeah.
Ankur Moitra
Thanks for having us.
Thanks for having us.
Steven Brunton
This was great.
This was great.
Transcript for Psychiatry, Insane Asylums, Mental Illness, ECT, Lobotomies, Freud & Jung | Lex Fridman Podcast #502
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #502 with Andrew Scull.
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Table of Contents
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- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:20 – Crisis in Psychiatry
- 30:58 – Categories of Mental Illness
- 38:17 – Asylums, Eugenics, and the Nazis
- 50:23 – The Ice Pick Lobotomy
- 56:36 – Malaria “Cure” for Syphilis
- 1:14:52 – Insulin Coma Therapy
- 1:22:44 – Electroconvulsive Therapy (ECT)
- 1:42:13 – One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
- 1:59:45 – Freud and Psychoanalysis
- 2:29:40 – WWII and Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT)
- 2:50:14 – Antipsychotics
- 3:13:35 – Antidepressants
- 3:26:29 – Future of Psychiatry
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Andrew Scull, a historian of psychiatry and mental health. He has authored many books that I highly recommend including Madness in Civilization: A Cultural History of Insanity from the Bible to Freud, from the Madhouse to Modern Medicine and Desperate Remedies: Psychiatry’s Turbulent Quest to Cure Mental Illness. Andrew Scull has spent decades studying how societies have understood madness, how psychiatry rose to authority, and how often that authority was used with false confidence and catastrophic consequences. In this conversation we’ll trace the long arc from the asylum era to eugenics, from lobotomy and insulin coma therapy to electroconvulsive therapy, psychoanalysis, antipsychotics, antidepressants and the modern crisis of mental health.
The following is a conversation with Andrew Scull, a historian of psychiatry and mental health. He has authored many books that I highly recommend including Madness in Civilization: A Cultural History of Insanity from the Bible to Freud, from the Madhouse to Modern Medicine and Desperate Remedies: Psychiatry’s Turbulent Quest to Cure Mental Illness. Andrew Scull has spent decades studying how societies have understood madness, how psychiatry rose to authority, and how often that authority was used with false confidence and catastrophic consequences. In this conversation we’ll trace the long arc from the asylum era to eugenics, from lobotomy and insulin coma therapy to electroconvulsive therapy, psychoanalysis, antipsychotics, antidepressants and the modern crisis of mental health.
Lex Fridman
It is in part a story about the terrifying history of bad ideas in medicine, but it is also about the fascinating mystery of the human mind and about the difficult journey to understand it. This is a Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, dear friends, here’s Andrew Scull.
It is in part a story about the terrifying history of bad ideas in medicine, but it is also about the fascinating mystery of the human mind and about the difficult journey to understand it. This is a Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, dear friends, here’s Andrew Scull.
Crisis in Psychiatry
Lex Fridman
Is it fair to characterize your view on psychiatry and mental illness as that there’s a crisis in modern psychiatry? We have made some progress- … over the past century, but mostly we still are not good at treating mental illness either via the drugs or talk therapy, meaning psychopharmacology or psychotherapy, or as you put it, the brain or the mind route.
Is it fair to characterize your view on psychiatry and mental illness as that there’s a crisis in modern psychiatry? We have made some progress- … over the past century, but mostly we still are not good at treating mental illness either via the drugs or talk therapy, meaning psychopharmacology or psychotherapy, or as you put it, the brain or the mind route.
Lex Fridman
So let’s start at the end of our story. Let’s start at where we stand before we go into the rich history that you so eloquently write about.
So let’s start at the end of our story. Let’s start at where we stand before we go into the rich history that you so eloquently write about.
Andrew Scull
So psychiatry is a profession that tries to deal with an enormously complicated thing: the human mind, the human emotions, the human ability to attempt to understand the world. And in particular, obviously, it focuses on people where our common sense approach to the world seems to break down—people whose emotional life is filled with turmoil, people whose ability to relate to others is badly damaged, people who see things in the world that the rest of us simply think aren’t there.
So psychiatry is a profession that tries to deal with an enormously complicated thing: the human mind, the human emotions, the human ability to attempt to understand the world. And in particular, obviously, it focuses on people where our common sense approach to the world seems to break down—people whose emotional life is filled with turmoil, people whose ability to relate to others is badly damaged, people who see things in the world that the rest of us simply think aren’t there.
Andrew Scull
They’re illusions, they’re hallucinations, they’re delusions. And this is a subject that has occupied some very clever minds over the years, and there’s no question that in the course of at least the last three quarters of a century there has been some limited progress in dealing with the problems that mental illness creates. Some of that is confined to the milder forms of mental distress; the more serious forms of psychosis and breakdown of emotional control, those are areas where I think again there’s been some progress, but it’s easy to overstate how much of that there’s been. As we’ll see probably later in our conversation today, the advent of modern psychopharmacology, which occurred in the early nineteen fifties, was a serendipitous event. It wasn’t planned for.
They’re illusions, they’re hallucinations, they’re delusions. And this is a subject that has occupied some very clever minds over the years, and there’s no question that in the course of at least the last three quarters of a century there has been some limited progress in dealing with the problems that mental illness creates. Some of that is confined to the milder forms of mental distress; the more serious forms of psychosis and breakdown of emotional control, those are areas where I think again there’s been some progress, but it’s easy to overstate how much of that there’s been. As we’ll see probably later in our conversation today, the advent of modern psychopharmacology, which occurred in the early nineteen fifties, was a serendipitous event. It wasn’t planned for.
Andrew Scull
It happened almost by accident, and it did mark in some ways an advance over some of the things that psychiatry had engaged in before that. And no question, for some people that revolution and a parallel revolution in the psychotherapeutic realm have created some advance for patients, and we should not minimize that. What we have available to us are symptomatic treatments, not cures. We don’t have a psychiatric penicillin for any of the conditions we’re gonna be talking about.
It happened almost by accident, and it did mark in some ways an advance over some of the things that psychiatry had engaged in before that. And no question, for some people that revolution and a parallel revolution in the psychotherapeutic realm have created some advance for patients, and we should not minimize that. What we have available to us are symptomatic treatments, not cures. We don’t have a psychiatric penicillin for any of the conditions we’re gonna be talking about.
Andrew Scull
That doesn’t mean we can’t do some things that help, but the help is quite limited, and it’s important to understand both the ways in which we have progressed and the limits of that progress, and also to understand that when we treat something, sometimes we create new problems—what we call iatrogenic problems, things caused by the interventions that we use. That’s true of some psychotherapeutic interventions and most certainly true of the drugs we use to treat mental illness these days. So for example, in treating PTSD, we often get patients to confront the episode– the trauma which provoked their distress, and that is often a very, very fraught process, and for many patients it actually makes things worse. For some patients it makes them better.
That doesn’t mean we can’t do some things that help, but the help is quite limited, and it’s important to understand both the ways in which we have progressed and the limits of that progress, and also to understand that when we treat something, sometimes we create new problems—what we call iatrogenic problems, things caused by the interventions that we use. That’s true of some psychotherapeutic interventions and most certainly true of the drugs we use to treat mental illness these days. So for example, in treating PTSD, we often get patients to confront the episode– the trauma which provoked their distress, and that is often a very, very fraught process, and for many patients it actually makes things worse. For some patients it makes them better.
Andrew Scull
So that’s a situation where you could see problems. With both antipsychotics and antidepressants, the two main classes of psychotropic drugs that we use, they’re at best partially effective and they don’t work for a significant fraction of patients who are given them. And one of the big problems psychiatry faces is that psychiatrists don’t know in advance who’s gonna respond well to the drugs, who’s gonna respond badly, for which group of patients in the middle the side effects and the main effects, if that’s what we wanna call them, the therapeutic effect, are finely balanced, and making those judgment calls about what to do is very, very difficult.
So that’s a situation where you could see problems. With both antipsychotics and antidepressants, the two main classes of psychotropic drugs that we use, they’re at best partially effective and they don’t work for a significant fraction of patients who are given them. And one of the big problems psychiatry faces is that psychiatrists don’t know in advance who’s gonna respond well to the drugs, who’s gonna respond badly, for which group of patients in the middle the side effects and the main effects, if that’s what we wanna call them, the therapeutic effect, are finely balanced, and making those judgment calls about what to do is very, very difficult.
Andrew Scull
Now in terms of the crisis psychiatry faces at the moment, as I see it, there are a number of strands that point to this. Psychiatry’s diagnostic system that is still used– I mean, the fundamental basis of, of psychiatric diagnosis today was really first formulated in, in 1980 with the third edition of The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of a Profession-
Now in terms of the crisis psychiatry faces at the moment, as I see it, there are a number of strands that point to this. Psychiatry’s diagnostic system that is still used– I mean, the fundamental basis of, of psychiatric diagnosis today was really first formulated in, in 1980 with the third edition of The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of a Profession-
Lex Fridman
DSM-III
DSM-III
Andrew Scull
… DSM-III, and then there’s been DSM-III-R, DSM-IV, DSM-IV-TR, and now DSM-5, finally not with a Roman numeral but with an Arabic numeral. So they thought with DSM-5 when they needed to modify it it would be like a piece of software. You have Windows 10, Windows 11, and so on, right? Now that diagnostic system came into being because psychiatrists had a very hard time agreeing with one another about what was wrong with somebody, and that became embarrassingly clear in — first in the professional literature which outsiders didn’t read, and then via a very famous study that’s a scientific fraud by David Rosenhan called On Being Sane in Insane Places where he claimed to have sent in pseudo patients to the hospital and they all were diagnosed as schizo.
… DSM-III, and then there’s been DSM-III-R, DSM-IV, DSM-IV-TR, and now DSM-5, finally not with a Roman numeral but with an Arabic numeral. So they thought with DSM-5 when they needed to modify it it would be like a piece of software. You have Windows 10, Windows 11, and so on, right? Now that diagnostic system came into being because psychiatrists had a very hard time agreeing with one another about what was wrong with somebody, and that became embarrassingly clear in — first in the professional literature which outsiders didn’t read, and then via a very famous study that’s a scientific fraud by David Rosenhan called On Being Sane in Insane Places where he claimed to have sent in pseudo patients to the hospital and they all were diagnosed as schizo.
Andrew Scull
All but one of them diagnosed as schizophrenic, the other as somebody with bipolar disorder, and they were fake patients. So almost in a panic after that study appeared in Science and because there was an abundant professional literature from the 1960s showing the same thing, that diagnosis was a very erratic process, the DSM-III task force led by Robert Spitzer, who was then at Columbia, was explicitly set up to try to create a sort of tick the boxes approach to deciding which box a patient belonged in. Were you schizophrenic? Were you this type of schizophrenic or that type of schizophrenic? Were you manic depressive or bipolar? Did you have various forms of depression?
All but one of them diagnosed as schizophrenic, the other as somebody with bipolar disorder, and they were fake patients. So almost in a panic after that study appeared in Science and because there was an abundant professional literature from the 1960s showing the same thing, that diagnosis was a very erratic process, the DSM-III task force led by Robert Spitzer, who was then at Columbia, was explicitly set up to try to create a sort of tick the boxes approach to deciding which box a patient belonged in. Were you schizophrenic? Were you this type of schizophrenic or that type of schizophrenic? Were you manic depressive or bipolar? Did you have various forms of depression?
Andrew Scull
And to construct those boxes, what they relied upon was a list of symptoms, and if you had more than a certain number– if you had more than six of ten, six or ten or more symptoms of a certain sort, you could be diagnosed with major depression, for example. So that system came into being. It was partially embedded because it appealed to drug companies who were developing drugs to treat these various disorders. It appealed to insurance companies ’cause it gave them a stable base to look at. It appealed to, as diagnosis always does, to patients and their families who are scrambling to deal with these enormous upsets in the mental life of either themselves or a family member. So provided some sense of certainty around diagnosis.
And to construct those boxes, what they relied upon was a list of symptoms, and if you had more than a certain number– if you had more than six of ten, six or ten or more symptoms of a certain sort, you could be diagnosed with major depression, for example. So that system came into being. It was partially embedded because it appealed to drug companies who were developing drugs to treat these various disorders. It appealed to insurance companies ’cause it gave them a stable base to look at. It appealed to, as diagnosis always does, to patients and their families who are scrambling to deal with these enormous upsets in the mental life of either themselves or a family member. So provided some sense of certainty around diagnosis.
Andrew Scull
But that was always based simply on symptoms in the way an eighteenth century doctor might diagnose dropsy or diagnose some other kind of disor— fever, for example. Well, fever and other diseases they talked about in the eighteenth century are really a constellation of very different things under one label. And I think that’s what is turning out to be true of the DSM labels. But that approach was really all that psychiatry could come up with if it wanted to make sure whether you were in Walla Walla or New York or San Francisco or Atlanta, you reached the same conclusion faced by the same patient, that you had a reliable diagnostic system. That didn’t mean necessarily it was a valid diagnostic system, if you understand the distinction between validity and reliability.
But that was always based simply on symptoms in the way an eighteenth century doctor might diagnose dropsy or diagnose some other kind of disor— fever, for example. Well, fever and other diseases they talked about in the eighteenth century are really a constellation of very different things under one label. And I think that’s what is turning out to be true of the DSM labels. But that approach was really all that psychiatry could come up with if it wanted to make sure whether you were in Walla Walla or New York or San Francisco or Atlanta, you reached the same conclusion faced by the same patient, that you had a reliable diagnostic system. That didn’t mean necessarily it was a valid diagnostic system, if you understand the distinction between validity and reliability.
Andrew Scull
Reliability means you and I faced with the same sets of facts reach the same conclusion, but that conclusion may or may not reflect the underlying reality of things, right? So you had this diagnostic system, and it went through various iterations. Each time it went through an iteration, the number of possible psychiatric disorders you could get grew and grew and grew, and it became difficult to believe in some of those categories, shall we say, that they were really illnesses rather than some kinda social construct. But beyond that, psychiatrists wanted to be more like other medical doctors, to root their diagnoses in an understanding of the underlying pathology of the disorder. What was it that caused people to become schizophrenic?
Reliability means you and I faced with the same sets of facts reach the same conclusion, but that conclusion may or may not reflect the underlying reality of things, right? So you had this diagnostic system, and it went through various iterations. Each time it went through an iteration, the number of possible psychiatric disorders you could get grew and grew and grew, and it became difficult to believe in some of those categories, shall we say, that they were really illnesses rather than some kinda social construct. But beyond that, psychiatrists wanted to be more like other medical doctors, to root their diagnoses in an understanding of the underlying pathology of the disorder. What was it that caused people to become schizophrenic?
Andrew Scull
The sense was if we could grasp that we’d have a better handle on how to attack it, how to treat it. And when DSM-5 was mooted, the fifth edition in the early two thousands, NIMH, then under the leadership of Steven Hyman who’s at Harvard now and succeeded by Thomas Insel who ruled NIMH for about thirteen years, the two of them had pushed psychiatry and psychiatric research in a very particular direction: on the one hand towards understanding the genetics of mental illness, and on the other to looking at what the new discipline of neuroscience could contribute to understanding things. Both of them were heavily invested in the idea that mental illness was brain disease.
The sense was if we could grasp that we’d have a better handle on how to attack it, how to treat it. And when DSM-5 was mooted, the fifth edition in the early two thousands, NIMH, then under the leadership of Steven Hyman who’s at Harvard now and succeeded by Thomas Insel who ruled NIMH for about thirteen years, the two of them had pushed psychiatry and psychiatric research in a very particular direction: on the one hand towards understanding the genetics of mental illness, and on the other to looking at what the new discipline of neuroscience could contribute to understanding things. Both of them were heavily invested in the idea that mental illness was brain disease.
Andrew Scull
And if it was brain disease, then the question was what was making the mechanism here go awry? What was causing people’s emotions or their cognitive skills or their sense of the world to become so disordered? And they invested a lot of money in that approach. When Insel stepped down he gave an interview actually to somebody at MIT, and he’s repeated it since in a– in a book he wrote about his experiences where he said, “Well, you know, as I look back on my thirteen years, I funded an enormous amount of scientific… really cool scientific research. I funded geneticists and I funded neuroscientists and they did a lot of really interesting science. And after spending twenty billion dollars, the lot of the mentally ill has improved not one bit, right?”
And if it was brain disease, then the question was what was making the mechanism here go awry? What was causing people’s emotions or their cognitive skills or their sense of the world to become so disordered? And they invested a lot of money in that approach. When Insel stepped down he gave an interview actually to somebody at MIT, and he’s repeated it since in a– in a book he wrote about his experiences where he said, “Well, you know, as I look back on my thirteen years, I funded an enormous amount of scientific… really cool scientific research. I funded geneticists and I funded neuroscientists and they did a lot of really interesting science. And after spending twenty billion dollars, the lot of the mentally ill has improved not one bit, right?”
Lex Fridman
Wow!
Wow!
Andrew Scull
Which was a pretty devastating statement, I thought.
Which was a pretty devastating statement, I thought.
Lex Fridman
And NIMH is National Institute of Mental Health.
And NIMH is National Institute of Mental Health.
Andrew Scull
National Institute of Mental Health, yes, I shouldn’t resort to jargon. But the National Institute of Mental Health had been founded in the late nineteen forties with the goal of improving, doing basic research, training people in the field, advancing the care of the mentally ill, and producing obviously cures and advances. And its mission has varied widely over the years since, but starting in the in the nineteen nineties –the period when the first George Bush declared the decade of the brain— NIMH increasingly focused on the idea that mental illness was purely a brain disease, and there’s something to that and there’s also some mistake in thinking about it that way.
National Institute of Mental Health, yes, I shouldn’t resort to jargon. But the National Institute of Mental Health had been founded in the late nineteen forties with the goal of improving, doing basic research, training people in the field, advancing the care of the mentally ill, and producing obviously cures and advances. And its mission has varied widely over the years since, but starting in the in the nineteen nineties –the period when the first George Bush declared the decade of the brain— NIMH increasingly focused on the idea that mental illness was purely a brain disease, and there’s something to that and there’s also some mistake in thinking about it that way.
Lex Fridman
This is, by the way, as we will talk about this distinction between seeing mental health, the maladies of the human mind – As a problem of the brain like neurobiology Neuroscience versus the problem of the mind which is more in the cognizant psychotherapy these more less amenable to scientific rigor So I think whats appealing About studying the brain and your biology Your sciences theres data Yes It’s more rigorous You can do science
This is, by the way, as we will talk about this distinction between seeing mental health, the maladies of the human mind – As a problem of the brain like neurobiology Neuroscience versus the problem of the mind which is more in the cognizant psychotherapy these more less amenable to scientific rigor So I think whats appealing About studying the brain and your biology Your sciences theres data Yes It’s more rigorous You can do science
Andrew Scull
It’s the kind of thing that really appealed to medical school deans because once NIH and the drug companies too were funding basic research on neurobiology and basic research on genetics the moneys flooded in and psychiatry Which had been Something of an orphan Became much more popular
It’s the kind of thing that really appealed to medical school deans because once NIH and the drug companies too were funding basic research on neurobiology and basic research on genetics the moneys flooded in and psychiatry Which had been Something of an orphan Became much more popular
Lex Fridman
and we should say That This Is something you write A Lot about There are all These Factors To consider So Theres cultural Elements Political public Policy elements Then At Certain Point Drug Companies Insurance Companies Come In Of course All Human Beings Around Somebody Who suffering With mental health issue So Family factors Thats Connected Cultural Stuff
and we should say That This Is something you write A Lot about There are all These Factors To consider So Theres cultural Elements Political public Policy elements Then At Certain Point Drug Companies Insurance Companies Come In Of course All Human Beings Around Somebody Who suffering With mental health issue So Family factors Thats Connected Cultural Stuff
Andrew Scull
it’s a very complicated area and oversimplification is a real problem I think. and I think even that dichotomy you just drew between the brain and the social Or psychological Some mix of those Things I Think in someways thats category Mistake thats mistaken Way looking World Because Brain You have today Not Born With Human brains Are remarkably Plastic Things Develop response Environment Social Psychological Embedded Our brains Rigid separation Saying One Other No Abundant evidence From epidemiology That social factors Play important role Development Illness
it’s a very complicated area and oversimplification is a real problem I think. and I think even that dichotomy you just drew between the brain and the social Or psychological Some mix of those Things I Think in someways thats category Mistake thats mistaken Way looking World Because Brain You have today Not Born With Human brains Are remarkably Plastic Things Develop response Environment Social Psychological Embedded Our brains Rigid separation Saying One Other No Abundant evidence From epidemiology That social factors Play important role Development Illness
Lex Fridman
Nevertheless history Psychotherapy Example Subfields Human Mind Complicated All Factors Say Anything Helpful Have Simplify Freud famously simplified Lot Towards Particular View Human mind Mm-hmm That simplification Actually Talk about Its Correct Deeper Sense Productive
Nevertheless history Psychotherapy Example Subfields Human Mind Complicated All Factors Say Anything Helpful Have Simplify Freud famously simplified Lot Towards Particular View Human mind Mm-hmm That simplification Actually Talk about Its Correct Deeper Sense Productive
Andrew Scull
yes in fact whenever you’re trying to deal with a very complicated set of issues you have to simplify you have to make heuristic decisions about what you’re going to neglect and what you’re gonna emphasize but what im trying to say well you asked me about the crisis in psychiatry and the simplest way for me to encapsulate the issue and the problem as i see it that’s arisen —one of the problems—is a quote by Leon Eisenberg who had a very long career at Harvard and Eisenberg said towards the end of his career He Said When Entered Psychiatry Was Brainless Psychiatry Leaving It mindless Psychiatry Yeah sums Up Way Field Large Degree Moved Process Insights Lost Though Ways Other Being Gained Freudians tended Neglect Biological Suggest Brain as a biological organism was not something we
yes in fact whenever you’re trying to deal with a very complicated set of issues you have to simplify you have to make heuristic decisions about what you’re going to neglect and what you’re gonna emphasize but what im trying to say well you asked me about the crisis in psychiatry and the simplest way for me to encapsulate the issue and the problem as i see it that’s arisen —one of the problems—is a quote by Leon Eisenberg who had a very long career at Harvard and Eisenberg said towards the end of his career He Said When Entered Psychiatry Was Brainless Psychiatry Leaving It mindless Psychiatry Yeah sums Up Way Field Large Degree Moved Process Insights Lost Though Ways Other Being Gained Freudians tended Neglect Biological Suggest Brain as a biological organism was not something we
Andrew Scull
needed to worry about. We worried at the level of a psychological model of how our minds work. And all too often, not exclusively because some of the psychiatrists I’m friends with are very sophisticated men and women and do grasp that you can’t move in these bipolar directions. You’ve got to meet somewhere in the middle. But that sort of got lost, I think, in all the enthusiasm for neuroscience. I mean, when antipsychotic drugs were discovered in the early 1950s, we had no clue of how they worked. And one of the things that they helped us spawn as people began to say, “Well, why did these drugs work?
needed to worry about. We worried at the level of a psychological model of how our minds work. And all too often, not exclusively because some of the psychiatrists I’m friends with are very sophisticated men and women and do grasp that you can’t move in these bipolar directions. You’ve got to meet somewhere in the middle. But that sort of got lost, I think, in all the enthusiasm for neuroscience. I mean, when antipsychotic drugs were discovered in the early 1950s, we had no clue of how they worked. And one of the things that they helped us spawn as people began to say, “Well, why did these drugs work?
Andrew Scull
What did they do?” Was to begin to understand that the brain wasn’t just a set of electrical signals, as had been thought in the first half of the 20th century and before. But rather there was this very interesting chemical soup running around in our brains with neurotransmitters that help the brain work the way it did and perhaps explained why it went awry.
What did they do?” Was to begin to understand that the brain wasn’t just a set of electrical signals, as had been thought in the first half of the 20th century and before. But rather there was this very interesting chemical soup running around in our brains with neurotransmitters that help the brain work the way it did and perhaps explained why it went awry.
Andrew Scull
So it was one of the many factors that gave rise to neuroscience. The first neuroscience conventions were in the 1970s, and they attracted a few hundred people. Now it’s tens of thousands of neuroscientists. It’s a huge enterprise. So diagnosis has come under threat. The categories that we have all become familiar with, that we’re told are real diseases like bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, major depression, are beginning to falter, and we’re beginning to worry about whether those diagnoses are real ways of thinking about the world and may in fact mislead us.
So it was one of the many factors that gave rise to neuroscience. The first neuroscience conventions were in the 1970s, and they attracted a few hundred people. Now it’s tens of thousands of neuroscientists. It’s a huge enterprise. So diagnosis has come under threat. The categories that we have all become familiar with, that we’re told are real diseases like bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, major depression, are beginning to falter, and we’re beginning to worry about whether those diagnoses are real ways of thinking about the world and may in fact mislead us.
Andrew Scull
Because if we think there’s something called schizophrenia or the schizophrenias, as the inventor of that term put it, if we think there’s something like that and we try to research where it comes from, but that’s not really what’s going on, obviously we’re probably gonna not make the progress we could be making if we had a better diagnostic system. And that’s what DSM-V thought it was gonna be able to do and discovered it couldn’t. So it stayed basically with the symptomatic approach.
Because if we think there’s something called schizophrenia or the schizophrenias, as the inventor of that term put it, if we think there’s something like that and we try to research where it comes from, but that’s not really what’s going on, obviously we’re probably gonna not make the progress we could be making if we had a better diagnostic system. And that’s what DSM-V thought it was gonna be able to do and discovered it couldn’t. So it stayed basically with the symptomatic approach.
Lex Fridman
If we can just really brief – … I would love to talk a little bit more about the DSM, but just to give a history here, looking it up on Perplexity, DSM One in 1952 was a 32 page pamphlet- ..with 106 diagnoses heavily influenced by psychodynamic concepts- ….and etiology using broad, often vague categories like reactions. DSM Two in 1968 expanded to 185 diagnoses, still psychodynamically flavored and reliability poor, but added more attention to childhood disorders and later removed homosexuality as a disorder in 1974 printing. Then to the revolution, as you mentioned, the DSM Three in 1980 introduced explicit symptom-based diagnostic criteria, a multi axial assessment system, and an officially atheoretical stance about causes aiming to improve reliability and research utility.
If we can just really brief – … I would love to talk a little bit more about the DSM, but just to give a history here, looking it up on Perplexity, DSM One in 1952 was a 32 page pamphlet- ..with 106 diagnoses heavily influenced by psychodynamic concepts- ….and etiology using broad, often vague categories like reactions. DSM Two in 1968 expanded to 185 diagnoses, still psychodynamically flavored and reliability poor, but added more attention to childhood disorders and later removed homosexuality as a disorder in 1974 printing. Then to the revolution, as you mentioned, the DSM Three in 1980 introduced explicit symptom-based diagnostic criteria, a multi axial assessment system, and an officially atheoretical stance about causes aiming to improve reliability and research utility.
Lex Fridman
And then DSM Three R in 1987 revised criterion expanded to around two 97 diagnoses. DSM Four in ’94 and DSM Four TR in 2000 focused on literature driven empirical revisions,- …..added and deleted some disorders, increased coordination with ICD ten and goes on. And then finally in 2013 DSM Five came out which eliminated the multiaxial system, integrated most information into a single nonaxial diagnostic list than separate notations for psychological and medical factors. It reorganized chapters, e.g., neurodevelopmental, obsessive compulsive related, trauma and stress related disorders, introduced new and refined entities, and so on.
And then DSM Three R in 1987 revised criterion expanded to around two 97 diagnoses. DSM Four in ’94 and DSM Four TR in 2000 focused on literature driven empirical revisions,- …..added and deleted some disorders, increased coordination with ICD ten and goes on. And then finally in 2013 DSM Five came out which eliminated the multiaxial system, integrated most information into a single nonaxial diagnostic list than separate notations for psychological and medical factors. It reorganized chapters, e.g., neurodevelopmental, obsessive compulsive related, trauma and stress related disorders, introduced new and refined entities, and so on.
Lex Fridman
But big picture trajectory conceptually, the DSM moved from cause focused and psychoanalytical to symptom based, theoretical, and reliability driven over time. There has been growth in the number of granularity of categories, closer alignment with ICD, ongoing controversy over medicalization validity and the balance between categorical and dimensional approaches. Yes, it feels like that description doesn’t necessarily fully get to the core of why the DSM five doesn’t quite get the full scope of the problem.
But big picture trajectory conceptually, the DSM moved from cause focused and psychoanalytical to symptom based, theoretical, and reliability driven over time. There has been growth in the number of granularity of categories, closer alignment with ICD, ongoing controversy over medicalization validity and the balance between categorical and dimensional approaches. Yes, it feels like that description doesn’t necessarily fully get to the core of why the DSM five doesn’t quite get the full scope of the problem.
Andrew Scull
You invest a ton of money. You invest- … $20 billion– More than $20 billion in a particular approach. And at the time you’re constructing this you say finally because of all the work that’s being done in genetics we now have decoded the human genome.
You invest a ton of money. You invest- … $20 billion– More than $20 billion in a particular approach. And at the time you’re constructing this you say finally because of all the work that’s being done in genetics we now have decoded the human genome.
Andrew Scull
We have PCR so we can chop it up and we can look at bits of it. We have a lot more understanding of the role of neurotransmission in the brain. Surely we’re going to be able to recast our diagnostic system based on underlying pathology so that we won’t be worrying about symptoms anymore. We’ll be looking at the actual underlying pathological changes that have taken place. But in the event, it turned out they couldn’t do that. By about 2008 they had thrown up their hands and said, no, we’re going to have to continue to refine, rely upon the same basic approach that we developed in 1980.
We have PCR so we can chop it up and we can look at bits of it. We have a lot more understanding of the role of neurotransmission in the brain. Surely we’re going to be able to recast our diagnostic system based on underlying pathology so that we won’t be worrying about symptoms anymore. We’ll be looking at the actual underlying pathological changes that have taken place. But in the event, it turned out they couldn’t do that. By about 2008 they had thrown up their hands and said, no, we’re going to have to continue to refine, rely upon the same basic approach that we developed in 1980.
Andrew Scull
And when that document came out, and there’d been a lot of criticism, some of it from Robert Spitzer, who had been largely in control of DSM-III and DSM-IIIR, and then his successor Allen Frances, who’d run DSM-IV, they both were fiercely critical about what was going on and said it was being done in the dark and it was done in secrecy and it wasn’t scientific. And when it was about to come out, Thomas Insel and Steven Hyman, the two then existing at the preceding director of the National Institute of Mental Health, denounced the document as unscientific and useless. So if you’re talking about a crisis, that’s a crisis for the field. If its diagnostic system is being dissed by leading figures like that, what else was a problem?
And when that document came out, and there’d been a lot of criticism, some of it from Robert Spitzer, who had been largely in control of DSM-III and DSM-IIIR, and then his successor Allen Frances, who’d run DSM-IV, they both were fiercely critical about what was going on and said it was being done in the dark and it was done in secrecy and it wasn’t scientific. And when it was about to come out, Thomas Insel and Steven Hyman, the two then existing at the preceding director of the National Institute of Mental Health, denounced the document as unscientific and useless. So if you’re talking about a crisis, that’s a crisis for the field. If its diagnostic system is being dissed by leading figures like that, what else was a problem?
Andrew Scull
The difficulties with the drug existing therapies particularly had become more and more manifest. To make matters worse, partly because Big Pharma had sometimes behaved, shall we say, rather unethically. Sometimes with these drugs it had hidden things that undercut their claims, it had manufactured studies, it had manipulated data, and it got caught out and it paid billions of dollars in damages for some of the tricks it had got up to. Not just in psychiatry—I mean Vioxx, for example, the painkiller, was another huge scandal and it was a five billion dollar settlement—but the drug companies had suffered some reputational damage. Beyond that, they didn’t have any real clues. Unfortunately neuroscience hadn’t thrown up new targets for different forms of drug development, and they decided they could make
The difficulties with the drug existing therapies particularly had become more and more manifest. To make matters worse, partly because Big Pharma had sometimes behaved, shall we say, rather unethically. Sometimes with these drugs it had hidden things that undercut their claims, it had manufactured studies, it had manipulated data, and it got caught out and it paid billions of dollars in damages for some of the tricks it had got up to. Not just in psychiatry—I mean Vioxx, for example, the painkiller, was another huge scandal and it was a five billion dollar settlement—but the drug companies had suffered some reputational damage. Beyond that, they didn’t have any real clues. Unfortunately neuroscience hadn’t thrown up new targets for different forms of drug development, and they decided they could make
Andrew Scull
more money with spending their money on research on other diseases, not mental illness. A crisis was you were stuck with a set of drugs that Steve Hyman says aren’t really any advance on the ones by accident we found in the fifties, mm-hmm, and there isn’t new research, unless it’s small startups, going on to develop new ones. So, you have an increasing sense your diagnostic process is falling apart, your drug treatments’ limitations are becoming more manifest, and as well, for people with serious mental illness, public policy has screwed things up badly. So, if you, a person with serious mental illness, you will die, on average, fifteen to twenty-five years before the rest of us. That gap has been growing rather than diminishing. So, that’s not a good thing. It’s not something I want to lay entirely at the door of psychiatry, so
more money with spending their money on research on other diseases, not mental illness. A crisis was you were stuck with a set of drugs that Steve Hyman says aren’t really any advance on the ones by accident we found in the fifties, mm-hmm, and there isn’t new research, unless it’s small startups, going on to develop new ones. So, you have an increasing sense your diagnostic process is falling apart, your drug treatments’ limitations are becoming more manifest, and as well, for people with serious mental illness, public policy has screwed things up badly. So, if you, a person with serious mental illness, you will die, on average, fifteen to twenty-five years before the rest of us. That gap has been growing rather than diminishing. So, that’s not a good thing. It’s not something I want to lay entirely at the door of psychiatry, so
Andrew Scull
Don’t get me wrong. I think a lot of this is public policy that has really abandoned treatment for the seriously mentally ill, and you see it on the streets of our cities. You see the sidewalk psychotics. You see people who are cycling between brief periods of inpatient care, the gutter, or the flop house, and the jail. So the three largest centers of inpatient psychiatric care, if you can call it that, in the United States today are the Los Angeles County Jail, Cook County Jail in Chicago, and Rikers Island in New York. That’s shockingly because, by their very nature, of course, prisons aren’t equipped to deal with serious mental illness.
Don’t get me wrong. I think a lot of this is public policy that has really abandoned treatment for the seriously mentally ill, and you see it on the streets of our cities. You see the sidewalk psychotics. You see people who are cycling between brief periods of inpatient care, the gutter, or the flop house, and the jail. So the three largest centers of inpatient psychiatric care, if you can call it that, in the United States today are the Los Angeles County Jail, Cook County Jail in Chicago, and Rikers Island in New York. That’s shockingly because, by their very nature, of course, prisons aren’t equipped to deal with serious mental illness.
Lex Fridman
Some dark ways to return to the asylum era.
Some dark ways to return to the asylum era.
Andrew Scull
Yeah. Well, you know, the asylums had acquired a very bad reputation, and I’ve written about some of the reasons why that happened. But when asylums were founded, it was a period of enormous optimism that we were going to be able to cure these people, that we would rescue them from attics and from jail cells, and through providing a therapeutic environment, coaxing them to work, creating a system where they learn to control themselves, not necessarily to drive their demons out, but to keep them under some sort of wraps. The expectation was, when the asylums came along, is that they’d not only rescue people from horrendous conditions in the prisons and the jails, but they’d actively cure them. And the earliest alienists, as they called themselves then, thought that they could cure 60, 70, 80 percent, maybe even more, of patients as long as they came in early. And really, asylums were built out of that sense.
Yeah. Well, you know, the asylums had acquired a very bad reputation, and I’ve written about some of the reasons why that happened. But when asylums were founded, it was a period of enormous optimism that we were going to be able to cure these people, that we would rescue them from attics and from jail cells, and through providing a therapeutic environment, coaxing them to work, creating a system where they learn to control themselves, not necessarily to drive their demons out, but to keep them under some sort of wraps. The expectation was, when the asylums came along, is that they’d not only rescue people from horrendous conditions in the prisons and the jails, but they’d actively cure them. And the earliest alienists, as they called themselves then, thought that they could cure 60, 70, 80 percent, maybe even more, of patients as long as they came in early. And really, asylums were built out of that sense.
Andrew Scull
Of optimism, that sense that we, you know, that so much was environmental and so much was not exacerbating the condition by treating people like animals or treating them, you know, beating them and in other ways horrifically maltreating them, that would create a sense of cure. And really, that underlay the construction of the asylums. And now having abandoned the asylums, which we did starting a little bit in the 1950s but really the late 1960s onwards, that was because there was going to be something miraculous called community care, but community care is a shell game without a pea. It’s like one of those confidence tricks. There were no substitute community facilities for dealing with the really serious mentally ill.
Of optimism, that sense that we, you know, that so much was environmental and so much was not exacerbating the condition by treating people like animals or treating them, you know, beating them and in other ways horrifically maltreating them, that would create a sense of cure. And really, that underlay the construction of the asylums. And now having abandoned the asylums, which we did starting a little bit in the 1950s but really the late 1960s onwards, that was because there was going to be something miraculous called community care, but community care is a shell game without a pea. It’s like one of those confidence tricks. There were no substitute community facilities for dealing with the really serious mentally ill.
Lex Fridman
So now we’re in this truly, in this crisis- … in this essentially dark ages. And in part I think our conversation, our journey through the history of psychiatry- … is an exploration of some gigantic mistakes but also an exploration of where lay some hope for the future. So we’ll talk quite a bit about this.
So now we’re in this truly, in this crisis- … in this essentially dark ages. And in part I think our conversation, our journey through the history of psychiatry- … is an exploration of some gigantic mistakes but also an exploration of where lay some hope for the future. So we’ll talk quite a bit about this.
Categories of Mental Illness
Lex Fridman
I was wondering if you can also just lay out what are the big categories of mental illness that we’re referring to. You’ve already hinted at them, but like levels of seriousness- … and the categories of illness- … like with psychosis and depression and so on.
I was wondering if you can also just lay out what are the big categories of mental illness that we’re referring to. You’ve already hinted at them, but like levels of seriousness- … and the categories of illness- … like with psychosis and depression and so on.
Andrew Scull
So going back to the early 20th century was when the German psychiatrist Emil Kraepelin, working with thousands of records in German asylums, inductively developed a distinction between two very broad categories of mental illness. One he called dementia praecox or early dementia, and the other he called manic depressive illness, which was a more remitting illness that sometimes went away entirely, other times went back and forth, whereas dementia praecox was a one-way ticket down. Now that label was transformed by a Swiss psychiatrist, Bleuler, into the term we use today, schizophrenia, although Bleuler talked about the schizophrenias because he thought under that broad label there were a diverse group of things running around.
So going back to the early 20th century was when the German psychiatrist Emil Kraepelin, working with thousands of records in German asylums, inductively developed a distinction between two very broad categories of mental illness. One he called dementia praecox or early dementia, and the other he called manic depressive illness, which was a more remitting illness that sometimes went away entirely, other times went back and forth, whereas dementia praecox was a one-way ticket down. Now that label was transformed by a Swiss psychiatrist, Bleuler, into the term we use today, schizophrenia, although Bleuler talked about the schizophrenias because he thought under that broad label there were a diverse group of things running around.
Andrew Scull
And I think that was an important insight that tends to get lost sometimes. This was jamming together people with very serious psychosis, that is, people who’d lost touch with what we like to think of as reality, whose emotional and cognitive lives were in total turmoil, who were — who lost the ability to connect with other human beings. So their social skills atrophied, their– Well, this is something contemporary psychiatrists would refer to as the positive and negative symptoms of schizophrenia.
And I think that was an important insight that tends to get lost sometimes. This was jamming together people with very serious psychosis, that is, people who’d lost touch with what we like to think of as reality, whose emotional and cognitive lives were in total turmoil, who were — who lost the ability to connect with other human beings. So their social skills atrophied, their– Well, this is something contemporary psychiatrists would refer to as the positive and negative symptoms of schizophrenia.
Lex Fridman
But underlying the definition of schizophrenia here is a detachment from reality. So you’re hearing voices-
But underlying the definition of schizophrenia here is a detachment from reality. So you’re hearing voices-
Andrew Scull
Yes
Yes
Lex Fridman
… you’re seeing visions.
… you’re seeing visions.
Andrew Scull
You’re thinking people are plotting against you. You think the television is talking directly to you.
You’re thinking people are plotting against you. You think the television is talking directly to you.
Lex Fridman
And because of that, it has these consequences of how you’re connected to the rest of the world and what your emotional life is like, all that kind of stuff.
And because of that, it has these consequences of how you’re connected to the rest of the world and what your emotional life is like, all that kind of stuff.
Andrew Scull
Yes. Your emotional life flattens out. Your language capacity deteriorates. Your ability to relate to other people either vanishes or becomes caught up in the web of delusions where you think people around you are plotting against you or doing terrible things to you.
Yes. Your emotional life flattens out. Your language capacity deteriorates. Your ability to relate to other people either vanishes or becomes caught up in the web of delusions where you think people around you are plotting against you or doing terrible things to you.
Lex Fridman
And is that a different world than the world of bipolar and the world of depression?
And is that a different world than the world of bipolar and the world of depression?
Andrew Scull
Yes. The Greeks recognized and the Romans, ancient Greece and ancient Rome recognized different forms of insanity as they called it. So melancholia would have been the term the Greeks and the Romans would have used and it survived and was very much around. And I think that is a form of depression. What’s happened now is major depression has become a catchall category. So it embraces both what we might think of as milder forms of emotional distress along with what melancholia referred to, which was really a kind of depression that had psychotic features. This loss of contact, as it were, with everyday reality.
Yes. The Greeks recognized and the Romans, ancient Greece and ancient Rome recognized different forms of insanity as they called it. So melancholia would have been the term the Greeks and the Romans would have used and it survived and was very much around. And I think that is a form of depression. What’s happened now is major depression has become a catchall category. So it embraces both what we might think of as milder forms of emotional distress along with what melancholia referred to, which was really a kind of depression that had psychotic features. This loss of contact, as it were, with everyday reality.
Lex Fridman
Something you would talk about maybe like a clinical depression. And by the way, we should mention that this field in the 21st century is like a minefield.
Something you would talk about maybe like a clinical depression. And by the way, we should mention that this field in the 21st century is like a minefield.
Andrew Scull
Yes, very much so. So here’s a very strange bit of historical record. The other distinction, and the distinction we’re grappling with– so we have people who are– whose depression is of such a scale they’re threatening to do away with themselves. They’ve retreated into complete, almost immobility. They’re overwhelmed by senses of sadness and loss and they’re– If they’re religious, then they’re damned to hell and all those kinds of things. So we have this psychosis that we’ve been talking about. We have something also that the ancients recognized: dementia, the loss, really the loss of our mind, as it were.
Yes, very much so. So here’s a very strange bit of historical record. The other distinction, and the distinction we’re grappling with– so we have people who are– whose depression is of such a scale they’re threatening to do away with themselves. They’ve retreated into complete, almost immobility. They’re overwhelmed by senses of sadness and loss and they’re– If they’re religious, then they’re damned to hell and all those kinds of things. So we have this psychosis that we’ve been talking about. We have something also that the ancients recognized: dementia, the loss, really the loss of our mind, as it were.
Andrew Scull
But then we also have other kinds of disturbance of our mental faculties that generally we think of as more minor, but I don’t want to make light of them because often people suffer from these things, genuinely suffer pretty badly. But those things we in the 20th and 21st centuries tend to talk about as neuroses, neurotic diseases, psychotic diseases. In the 19th century, neurosis was a term that meant things rooted in the brain, as you can see from the root of the word, and psychosis was stuff that came from the mind, the psyche.
But then we also have other kinds of disturbance of our mental faculties that generally we think of as more minor, but I don’t want to make light of them because often people suffer from these things, genuinely suffer pretty badly. But those things we in the 20th and 21st centuries tend to talk about as neuroses, neurotic diseases, psychotic diseases. In the 19th century, neurosis was a term that meant things rooted in the brain, as you can see from the root of the word, and psychosis was stuff that came from the mind, the psyche.
Andrew Scull
And yet sometime in the late 19th century those things crossed over and so when we talk in the present we do tend to distinguish between the core, really the most severe forms of mental disorder, which would include things like Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia, would include very serious depression, would include bipolar disorder where people oscillate either have extreme mania so they’re not getting any sleep. They’re talking at an extraordinary rate.
And yet sometime in the late 19th century those things crossed over and so when we talk in the present we do tend to distinguish between the core, really the most severe forms of mental disorder, which would include things like Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia, would include very serious depression, would include bipolar disorder where people oscillate either have extreme mania so they’re not getting any sleep. They’re talking at an extraordinary rate.
Andrew Scull
Their behavior is very hard to tolerate, and they’re exhausting themselves, and they may even die from exhaustion if it’s not controlled. And very often that alternates with periods of depression. So that was a category that was captured initially as manic depressive illness and later on evolved into bipolar disorder and then separating out depression and major depression separately. But then there are a whole bunch of other things like, for example, phobias. People can’t go outside because they find it too frightening. Milder phobias: “I can’t get in an airplane because it’s gonna crash,” “I can’t go to school because it’s overwhelming for me.” So school phobia emerges as a diagnosis. A disorder that at first attracted Freud, hysteria.
Their behavior is very hard to tolerate, and they’re exhausting themselves, and they may even die from exhaustion if it’s not controlled. And very often that alternates with periods of depression. So that was a category that was captured initially as manic depressive illness and later on evolved into bipolar disorder and then separating out depression and major depression separately. But then there are a whole bunch of other things like, for example, phobias. People can’t go outside because they find it too frightening. Milder phobias: “I can’t get in an airplane because it’s gonna crash,” “I can’t go to school because it’s overwhelming for me.” So school phobia emerges as a diagnosis. A disorder that at first attracted Freud, hysteria.
Lex Fridman
And now we should say you wrote a book on hysteria.
And now we should say you wrote a book on hysteria.
Andrew Scull
Oh, I did indeed, yes.
Oh, I did indeed, yes.
Lex Fridman
You mentioned … I mean, hysteria, every classification we’re talking about has been used and abused by every layer of society including institutions- …including just culturally the word hysteria applied to different races disproportionately, to different, um-
You mentioned … I mean, hysteria, every classification we’re talking about has been used and abused by every layer of society including institutions- …including just culturally the word hysteria applied to different races disproportionately, to different, um-
Andrew Scull
Genders particularly, yes, yes.
Genders particularly, yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
…genders disproportionate- So we’re in this crisis of trying to figure out what to do with this super complicated human mind- …and everybody is dogmatically creating narratives that hold, take hold, and in so doing can lead to some abuses-
…genders disproportionate- So we’re in this crisis of trying to figure out what to do with this super complicated human mind- …and everybody is dogmatically creating narratives that hold, take hold, and in so doing can lead to some abuses-
Andrew Scull
Yes, they do. Yes, they do.
Yes, they do. Yes, they do.
Lex Fridman
…as you document.
…as you document.
Asylums, Eugenics, and the Nazis
Andrew Scull
If you look back at the asylum era born in this period of intense optimism, and then the claims to be able to cure these vast numbers of patients were overblown. Uh, I do believe the early asylums actually did good work and that some patients did very well and recovered as a result of their stays. But what happened, they weren’t discharging 80% of their patients. They were discharging 35 or 40% of their patients, and what that meant is every year left behind were a batch of chronic patients, and then the next year you repeated it. And over time, what that means is the ratio of new patients to chronic patients gets worse and worse.
If you look back at the asylum era born in this period of intense optimism, and then the claims to be able to cure these vast numbers of patients were overblown. Uh, I do believe the early asylums actually did good work and that some patients did very well and recovered as a result of their stays. But what happened, they weren’t discharging 80% of their patients. They were discharging 35 or 40% of their patients, and what that meant is every year left behind were a batch of chronic patients, and then the next year you repeated it. And over time, what that means is the ratio of new patients to chronic patients gets worse and worse.
Andrew Scull
And more and more the image of the asylum is defined by the chronic patient who hasn’t recovered and maybe spends years or decades there and only leaves in a pine box. So the, the image of the asylum declined drastically. As they became more and more overcrowded, conditions in them deteriorated. Patients were often abused. Psychiatrists didn’t know what to do with them, and they faced a problem in the late 19th century. You’d promised 70% or 80% cures, but we’re not seeing that. In fact, when we calculate cures and the numbers of people in the asylum, it’s more like 10% or 12%. That’s the way you could play with statistics ’cause that’s all the old patients mixed with the new. But still, it looks very bad. How do you explain this doctor?
And more and more the image of the asylum is defined by the chronic patient who hasn’t recovered and maybe spends years or decades there and only leaves in a pine box. So the, the image of the asylum declined drastically. As they became more and more overcrowded, conditions in them deteriorated. Patients were often abused. Psychiatrists didn’t know what to do with them, and they faced a problem in the late 19th century. You’d promised 70% or 80% cures, but we’re not seeing that. In fact, when we calculate cures and the numbers of people in the asylum, it’s more like 10% or 12%. That’s the way you could play with statistics ’cause that’s all the old patients mixed with the new. But still, it looks very bad. How do you explain this doctor?
Andrew Scull
You’ve promised us one thing, and you delivered something quite different. The answer came in a way of blaming the victim, in a way of saying, “Well, you know, what we didn’t understand was that mental illness is a fundamentally biological condition. These people are evolutionary throwbacks.” Evolution was generally thought of as a progressive onwards and upwards, but these people had fallen back into a, into a, a, a lesser form of existence. They’d lost their essential humanity because their brains were defective. So what emerged then was the idea of degeneration, the idea that these patients were degenerates. They were people with an inferior biology. You couldn’t release them because they breed like rabbits. They didn’t have any self-control because of their diminished humanity.
You’ve promised us one thing, and you delivered something quite different. The answer came in a way of blaming the victim, in a way of saying, “Well, you know, what we didn’t understand was that mental illness is a fundamentally biological condition. These people are evolutionary throwbacks.” Evolution was generally thought of as a progressive onwards and upwards, but these people had fallen back into a, into a, a, a lesser form of existence. They’d lost their essential humanity because their brains were defective. So what emerged then was the idea of degeneration, the idea that these patients were degenerates. They were people with an inferior biology. You couldn’t release them because they breed like rabbits. They didn’t have any self-control because of their diminished humanity.
Lex Fridman
This is the narrative.
This is the narrative.
Andrew Scull
This is the narrative. And so what it did was provide a justification for locking up people in asylums that wasn’t therapeutic at all. It was just keeping them out of the way.
This is the narrative. And so what it did was provide a justification for locking up people in asylums that wasn’t therapeutic at all. It was just keeping them out of the way.
Lex Fridman
And then it led to the justification of sterilization- ….based on the same argument.
And then it led to the justification of sterilization- ….based on the same argument.
Andrew Scull
So if maybe we can release them if we make sure they can’t breed.
So if maybe we can release them if we make sure they can’t breed.
Lex Fridman
This is the beginning of the darkness.
This is the beginning of the darkness.
Andrew Scull
It is the beginning of the darkness. My own state was one of the pioneers in this process, and it continued to sterilize mental patients up until about 1960.
It is the beginning of the darkness. My own state was one of the pioneers in this process, and it continued to sterilize mental patients up until about 1960.
Lex Fridman
By the 1960s, over 60,000 sterilizations have been performed in the US with California performing a disproportionally high number.
By the 1960s, over 60,000 sterilizations have been performed in the US with California performing a disproportionally high number.
Andrew Scull
That’s correct. But even more serious consequences could flow from these set of issues. When you start talking, one, one British psychiatrist said that if his patients that were coming into the asylum had been puppies, we’d have tied them up in a sack because they were some horrible mongrel, not a purebred dog, tied them up in a sack with some lead weights, and thrown them in a pond and drowned them.
That’s correct. But even more serious consequences could flow from these set of issues. When you start talking, one, one British psychiatrist said that if his patients that were coming into the asylum had been puppies, we’d have tied them up in a sack because they were some horrible mongrel, not a purebred dog, tied them up in a sack with some lead weights, and thrown them in a pond and drowned them.
Lex Fridman
Man.
Man.
Andrew Scull
That kind of language is very, very dangerous. And what happened, California’s law surrounding sterilization was advocated for in the West. By that I mean North America and, and Britain and much of Europe. There were enough checks and balances in a democratic system that even though there were enthusiasts, the eugenicists who said, “Best get rid of these people, put them to death,” uh, that never really, that never really acquired mass support. But what happened in Germany once Nazi– the Nazis came to power is they seized on these notions and that the idea that the mentally ill were, as they put it, useless eaters, people consuming resources but never gonna get better, just a burden on the state. Their lives weren’t worth living because after all, they had this serious mental illness.
That kind of language is very, very dangerous. And what happened, California’s law surrounding sterilization was advocated for in the West. By that I mean North America and, and Britain and much of Europe. There were enough checks and balances in a democratic system that even though there were enthusiasts, the eugenicists who said, “Best get rid of these people, put them to death,” uh, that never really, that never really acquired mass support. But what happened in Germany once Nazi– the Nazis came to power is they seized on these notions and that the idea that the mentally ill were, as they put it, useless eaters, people consuming resources but never gonna get better, just a burden on the state. Their lives weren’t worth living because after all, they had this serious mental illness.
Andrew Scull
So first you sterilize, and then you go, “But we’re still supporting all these people.” And so Hitler starts something called the T4 program after the street name of the house where this was concocted, Tiergartenstraße 4. And the mentally ill were the first people to suffer from the Final Solution. It was in the mass killing of the mentally ill, which may have been as many as a quarter million people, that the technology of the gas chamber was developed, and the technology of disguising the gas chamber as showers was developed. And so patients were taken away to a number of psychiatric centers and systematically put to death, and they had, they had the crematoriums and the black smoke, and local people talked about the buses that were bringing them in as killing crates.
So first you sterilize, and then you go, “But we’re still supporting all these people.” And so Hitler starts something called the T4 program after the street name of the house where this was concocted, Tiergartenstraße 4. And the mentally ill were the first people to suffer from the Final Solution. It was in the mass killing of the mentally ill, which may have been as many as a quarter million people, that the technology of the gas chamber was developed, and the technology of disguising the gas chamber as showers was developed. And so patients were taken away to a number of psychiatric centers and systematically put to death, and they had, they had the crematoriums and the black smoke, and local people talked about the buses that were bringing them in as killing crates.
Andrew Scull
So they were aware of what was going on.
So they were aware of what was going on.
Lex Fridman
Were they influenced by the narratives that were born in the United States?
Were they influenced by the narratives that were born in the United States?
Andrew Scull
Yes, absolutely. They-
Yes, absolutely. They-
Lex Fridman
About this kind of-
About this kind of-
Andrew Scull
About that sort of thing, and lacking the checks and balances that at least until recently this country had, it was relatively easy for Hitler to do that. And particularly with the war looming, the idea that we’re gonna support all these useless people, let’s kill them. And German psychiatry for the most part collaborated with that process.
About that sort of thing, and lacking the checks and balances that at least until recently this country had, it was relatively easy for Hitler to do that. And particularly with the war looming, the idea that we’re gonna support all these useless people, let’s kill them. And German psychiatry for the most part collaborated with that process.
Lex Fridman
I wonder how many people throughout that whole journey in the psychiatry profession sort of were brave enough to speak up like, “Hey, maybe the sack of puppies kinda language-“
I wonder how many people throughout that whole journey in the psychiatry profession sort of were brave enough to speak up like, “Hey, maybe the sack of puppies kinda language-“
Andrew Scull
Oh, yes. Oh, yes.
Oh, yes. Oh, yes.
Lex Fridman
… is a problem?”
… is a problem?”
Andrew Scull
That’s the really nasty direction that that language could lead to. And it was symptomatic of the kind of stigma that tends to attach itself to mental illness and this sense of hopelessness. So but if you’re a healing profession, if you enter psychiatry thinking, “I’m gonna do this to help people, to cure people, to make their lives better,” to just become a glorified boarding housekeeper keeping them under lock and key or in the alternative to collaborate in the sorts of awfulness that the Nazis perpetrated, that’s something from which decent human beings tend to recoil and decent psychiatrists tended to recoil.
That’s the really nasty direction that that language could lead to. And it was symptomatic of the kind of stigma that tends to attach itself to mental illness and this sense of hopelessness. So but if you’re a healing profession, if you enter psychiatry thinking, “I’m gonna do this to help people, to cure people, to make their lives better,” to just become a glorified boarding housekeeper keeping them under lock and key or in the alternative to collaborate in the sorts of awfulness that the Nazis perpetrated, that’s something from which decent human beings tend to recoil and decent psychiatrists tended to recoil.
Andrew Scull
And so still thinking as they did by the end of the 19th century that mental illness was predominantly a biological problem, some of them began to say, “Well, maybe biology as well as being the problem could provide the solution. Maybe we should look for ways to intervene in the biological systems of these people and make them better.” The same logic that applies I would say in the present- … For, for many working in the field.
And so still thinking as they did by the end of the 19th century that mental illness was predominantly a biological problem, some of them began to say, “Well, maybe biology as well as being the problem could provide the solution. Maybe we should look for ways to intervene in the biological systems of these people and make them better.” The same logic that applies I would say in the present- … For, for many working in the field.
Lex Fridman
But in a cruder form.
But in a cruder form.
Andrew Scull
But in a very different form, exactly.
But in a very different form, exactly.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. If we can just speak about the Nazis a bit more, you highlight that America financially supported the German psychiatric researchers with deep Nazi ties like Ernst Rüdin who was the key architect of Hitler’s mass sterilization and extermination laws. So it seems like the Nazis borrowed the American narratives of the psychiatrist that these are lesser biological beings and then this financial support and the ties continued.
Yeah. If we can just speak about the Nazis a bit more, you highlight that America financially supported the German psychiatric researchers with deep Nazi ties like Ernst Rüdin who was the key architect of Hitler’s mass sterilization and extermination laws. So it seems like the Nazis borrowed the American narratives of the psychiatrist that these are lesser biological beings and then this financial support and the ties continued.
Andrew Scull
Yeah. So one of the organizations that recognized that mental illness was an acute social problem, very costly to the state, inflicting all kinds of suffering on people, was The Rockefeller Foundation. What we don’t realize today is that the involvement of the federal government in medical research and indeed scientific research is a World War II and post-war development, partly the Cold War and Sputnik and all of that. But that’s when big science and big medicine got funded-
Yeah. So one of the organizations that recognized that mental illness was an acute social problem, very costly to the state, inflicting all kinds of suffering on people, was The Rockefeller Foundation. What we don’t realize today is that the involvement of the federal government in medical research and indeed scientific research is a World War II and post-war development, partly the Cold War and Sputnik and all of that. But that’s when big science and big medicine got funded-
Andrew Scull
in extravagant ways. Before the war, science was an orphan. It didn’t get money from the government much and medicine even more so. So to the extent medical training was reformed, that was the product of investment by The Rockefeller Foundation, enormously wealthy by the standards of the time. And come about 1930, The Rockefeller Foundation decided it needed to concentrate its resources and pick priorities for the money it was investing. And it may seem a rather strange thing within the whole range of medical areas that it could choose, it chose psychiatry as the one that it was going to invest in. And I think it did so in part precisely because scientific research in psychiatry was so backward, partly because it was such a pressing public problem.
in extravagant ways. Before the war, science was an orphan. It didn’t get money from the government much and medicine even more so. So to the extent medical training was reformed, that was the product of investment by The Rockefeller Foundation, enormously wealthy by the standards of the time. And come about 1930, The Rockefeller Foundation decided it needed to concentrate its resources and pick priorities for the money it was investing. And it may seem a rather strange thing within the whole range of medical areas that it could choose, it chose psychiatry as the one that it was going to invest in. And I think it did so in part precisely because scientific research in psychiatry was so backward, partly because it was such a pressing public problem.
Lex Fridman
Hmm.
Hmm.
Andrew Scull
And partly, and this was less public but nonetheless I think played an important role, several of the trustees of The Rockefeller Foundation had direct experience of mental illness in their families. Wives who’d been institutionalized as schizophrenic. In one case, a wife who murdered the children and killed herself, leaving her husband as a major actor in The Rockefeller Foundation, berefted and of course inclined then to support research in this area. And Rockefeller spread its money very widely precisely ’cause it didn’t know where to spend most of its money. So it did some support of psychotherapeutics. It supported a number of the then extant therapeutic experiments going on, and it supported work in genetics.
And partly, and this was less public but nonetheless I think played an important role, several of the trustees of The Rockefeller Foundation had direct experience of mental illness in their families. Wives who’d been institutionalized as schizophrenic. In one case, a wife who murdered the children and killed herself, leaving her husband as a major actor in The Rockefeller Foundation, berefted and of course inclined then to support research in this area. And Rockefeller spread its money very widely precisely ’cause it didn’t know where to spend most of its money. So it did some support of psychotherapeutics. It supported a number of the then extant therapeutic experiments going on, and it supported work in genetics.
Andrew Scull
And one of the geneticists it supported, Ernst Rüdin in Germany, who was the leading German researcher in genetics and mental disorder. And Rüdin, because he’d absorbed the lessons from California about sterilization, became a very enthusiastic proponent of that, and then a supporter of murdering mental patients.
And one of the geneticists it supported, Ernst Rüdin in Germany, who was the leading German researcher in genetics and mental disorder. And Rüdin, because he’d absorbed the lessons from California about sterilization, became a very enthusiastic proponent of that, and then a supporter of murdering mental patients.
Lex Fridman
And we should say, I mean, we’ll probably talk about the complicated nature of science- …that it sometimes can be captured by certain ideologies and- …in so doing do a lot of damage to humanity. But ultimately, the beacon of hope for the future of humanity lays in the scientific method, as flawed as it is. So everything we’re talking about, we get to see how you F up- In a major dark disturbing ways throughout the 20th century- …on the– in the psychiatric profession. But that should be instructive lessons of how we proceed forward to do better and better and better.
And we should say, I mean, we’ll probably talk about the complicated nature of science- …that it sometimes can be captured by certain ideologies and- …in so doing do a lot of damage to humanity. But ultimately, the beacon of hope for the future of humanity lays in the scientific method, as flawed as it is. So everything we’re talking about, we get to see how you F up- In a major dark disturbing ways throughout the 20th century- …on the– in the psychiatric profession. But that should be instructive lessons of how we proceed forward to do better and better and better.
The Ice Pick Lobotomy
Andrew Scull
We can discuss a series of therapeutic experiments on people who were shut up in a double sense. They were locked away, and their voices were not heeded because it was the product of their madness. And so what we see in the first five decades really of the 20th century is people with a variety of motivations including the desire to improve the lot of the mentally ill engaging in uncontrolled experiments that had terrible results. And the science behind it was shaky but nonetheless it existed. It wasn’t just plucked out of the sky. And yes, eventually those things break down. I mean, the clearest case of that because it’s the most extreme of these at least in the public imagination is lobotomy.
We can discuss a series of therapeutic experiments on people who were shut up in a double sense. They were locked away, and their voices were not heeded because it was the product of their madness. And so what we see in the first five decades really of the 20th century is people with a variety of motivations including the desire to improve the lot of the mentally ill engaging in uncontrolled experiments that had terrible results. And the science behind it was shaky but nonetheless it existed. It wasn’t just plucked out of the sky. And yes, eventually those things break down. I mean, the clearest case of that because it’s the most extreme of these at least in the public imagination is lobotomy.
Andrew Scull
The idea that you are going to solve psychotic breakdowns in people by excising part of their brain initially by drilling holes in the skull and injecting alcohol or using what looks like a butter knife to break connections between the brain. And then later when that process seems to be too slow, the Henry Ford of lobotomy — his daughter said Walter Freeman aspired to be the Henry Ford of lobotomy, the one who could mechanize the production of it and get it done fast. He invented the ice pick lobotomy where you used an ice pick in the orbit of the eye having rendered somebody unconscious after two or three electric shocks and you banged it through the bone and wiggled it about and severed — I mean, it’s just hard to even describe.
The idea that you are going to solve psychotic breakdowns in people by excising part of their brain initially by drilling holes in the skull and injecting alcohol or using what looks like a butter knife to break connections between the brain. And then later when that process seems to be too slow, the Henry Ford of lobotomy — his daughter said Walter Freeman aspired to be the Henry Ford of lobotomy, the one who could mechanize the production of it and get it done fast. He invented the ice pick lobotomy where you used an ice pick in the orbit of the eye having rendered somebody unconscious after two or three electric shocks and you banged it through the bone and wiggled it about and severed — I mean, it’s just hard to even describe.
Lex Fridman
So this is from the 1930s to the 1970s?
So this is from the 1930s to the 1970s?
Andrew Scull
Yes. Freeman starts his work in 1936 borrowing from the work of the preceding year of a Portuguese neurologist named Egas Moniz. And Moniz wins the Nobel Prize in medicine in 1949 for lobotomy. So it’s important to see that. That was 14 years of experience and yet that won a Nobel Prize. I’m sure that’s one they’d like to retract.
Yes. Freeman starts his work in 1936 borrowing from the work of the preceding year of a Portuguese neurologist named Egas Moniz. And Moniz wins the Nobel Prize in medicine in 1949 for lobotomy. So it’s important to see that. That was 14 years of experience and yet that won a Nobel Prize. I’m sure that’s one they’d like to retract.
Lex Fridman
So he popularized, Walter Freeman, the ice pick.
So he popularized, Walter Freeman, the ice pick.
Andrew Scull
And his particular specialty after the war became this ice pick lobotomy because there were over half million patients in America’s mental hospitals. Freeman was convinced this operation was a cure-all. And so he traveled around in a camper truck which he called the Lobotomobile, and he would descend in the summer on state hospitals and he would teach them how to do this ice pick lobotomy.
And his particular specialty after the war became this ice pick lobotomy because there were over half million patients in America’s mental hospitals. Freeman was convinced this operation was a cure-all. And so he traveled around in a camper truck which he called the Lobotomobile, and he would descend in the summer on state hospitals and he would teach them how to do this ice pick lobotomy.
Lex Fridman
This is by the way image of the tool.
This is by the way image of the tool.
Andrew Scull
Yes, those are the tools he used. Originally, he used an actual ice pick and then he developed this-
Yes, those are the tools he used. Originally, he used an actual ice pick and then he developed this-
Lex Fridman
This is what he developed. This is the state-of-the-art technology.
This is what he developed. This is the state-of-the-art technology.
Andrew Scull
This is the state of the art with a hammer or a mallet.
This is the state of the art with a hammer or a mallet.
Lex Fridman
Oh no!
Oh no!
Andrew Scull
Yes, I’m sorry. It’s very distressing. I don’t know-
Yes, I’m sorry. It’s very distressing. I don’t know-
Lex Fridman
You having to write about this, by the way –
You having to write about this, by the way –
Andrew Scull
Well, it’s really-
Well, it’s really-
Lex Fridman
Is a lot.
Is a lot.
Andrew Scull
…very, very, very, very difficult. I came across, for example, a picture of a woman, a naked woman being dragged away by attendants to be lobotomized, and she’s resisting with all her might, and to no avail. You have a picture there of Walter Freeman lobotomizing a patient in Washington State. Freeman was ambidextrous, and when he taught neurology, he would draw simultaneously with his left and right hand, and he could do it perfectly. When he was performing lobotomy, when his right hand got tired, he switched to his left hand, and he sometimes would do 20 or 30 lobotomies in an afternoon. And he boasted, he said, “You know, I could teach any damn fool to perform a lobotomy in twenty minutes, even a psychiatrist.” Because Freeman was a neurologist, and he had a lot of contempt for psychiatrists.
…very, very, very, very difficult. I came across, for example, a picture of a woman, a naked woman being dragged away by attendants to be lobotomized, and she’s resisting with all her might, and to no avail. You have a picture there of Walter Freeman lobotomizing a patient in Washington State. Freeman was ambidextrous, and when he taught neurology, he would draw simultaneously with his left and right hand, and he could do it perfectly. When he was performing lobotomy, when his right hand got tired, he switched to his left hand, and he sometimes would do 20 or 30 lobotomies in an afternoon. And he boasted, he said, “You know, I could teach any damn fool to perform a lobotomy in twenty minutes, even a psychiatrist.” Because Freeman was a neurologist, and he had a lot of contempt for psychiatrists.
Andrew Scull
So this was a very ugly episode. How did it die away? It really took generational change. Some of these lobotomists continued to operate into the sixties, even to the early seventies, but the younger generation who became acquainted with the really worst failures of that regime — the people on the back wards who were incontinent, who were basically zombies, had lost all mental power — they rebelled against this, and by then they had a different treatment in the form of antipsychotic drugs-
So this was a very ugly episode. How did it die away? It really took generational change. Some of these lobotomists continued to operate into the sixties, even to the early seventies, but the younger generation who became acquainted with the really worst failures of that regime — the people on the back wards who were incontinent, who were basically zombies, had lost all mental power — they rebelled against this, and by then they had a different treatment in the form of antipsychotic drugs-
Andrew Scull
… which looked much more like what regular medicine was doing and didn’t have these horrible overtones. And of course, in the popular mind, I think the probably the most famous instance of telling the public about some of these interventions was the film of Ken Kesey’s novel One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, where you see Jack Nicholson, giving I think the performance of a lifetime, who is given ECT, electroconvulsive therapy, in a very dramatic rendition of what that was — not, not really what was going on by the 1970s with ECT, but nonetheless, certainly what had been going on back in the past.
… which looked much more like what regular medicine was doing and didn’t have these horrible overtones. And of course, in the popular mind, I think the probably the most famous instance of telling the public about some of these interventions was the film of Ken Kesey’s novel One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, where you see Jack Nicholson, giving I think the performance of a lifetime, who is given ECT, electroconvulsive therapy, in a very dramatic rendition of what that was — not, not really what was going on by the 1970s with ECT, but nonetheless, certainly what had been going on back in the past.
Andrew Scull
And then finally, when ECT doesn’t smash him to bits, they lobotomize him. And, and the film ends obviously with him being smothered to death ’cause Chief can’t bear to see him in, in the state that he’s in. So that fixed in the public mind some of the images of these things. It is one of the things that gave electroconvulsive therapy such a bad name.
And then finally, when ECT doesn’t smash him to bits, they lobotomize him. And, and the film ends obviously with him being smothered to death ’cause Chief can’t bear to see him in, in the state that he’s in. So that fixed in the public mind some of the images of these things. It is one of the things that gave electroconvulsive therapy such a bad name.
Malaria “Cure” for Syphilis
Lex Fridman
So we will actually, not to fast forward too quickly,- -… let’s talk about the full journey of everything we’ve been talking about. So we mentioned the asylum era that began in the mid-nineteenth century going into twentieth, and we talked about the narratives-
So we will actually, not to fast forward too quickly,- -… let’s talk about the full journey of everything we’ve been talking about. So we mentioned the asylum era that began in the mid-nineteenth century going into twentieth, and we talked about the narratives-
Andrew Scull
And we talked about sterilization.
And we talked about sterilization.
Lex Fridman
Sterilization. And let’s look at the insulin shock therapy of nineteen thirty three to the ninteen sixties where you were putting patients in deep hypoglycemic comas using large doses of insulin.
Sterilization. And let’s look at the insulin shock therapy of nineteen thirty three to the ninteen sixties where you were putting patients in deep hypoglycemic comas using large doses of insulin.
Andrew Scull
Yeah. So as I mentioned for psychiatrists who went into the field and were ambitious but who also wanted to think of themselves as therapeutic agents-
Yeah. So as I mentioned for psychiatrists who went into the field and were ambitious but who also wanted to think of themselves as therapeutic agents-
Andrew Scull
….uh, to just sit there passively and contain the patients was very unattractive. And so they looked around for ways in which perhaps biological interventions could be used to ameliorate this condition that they still saw in largely biological terms. Now in some ways, one of the crucial early ways in which this thinking went and which affected a large number of patients was this: one of the few diagnostic triumphs of psychiatry in the early nineteenth century as the profession began to emerge was that it began to distinguish a group of patients who were deemed to be suffering from something called General Paralysis of the Insane. That encapsulates two things about what was going on.
….uh, to just sit there passively and contain the patients was very unattractive. And so they looked around for ways in which perhaps biological interventions could be used to ameliorate this condition that they still saw in largely biological terms. Now in some ways, one of the crucial early ways in which this thinking went and which affected a large number of patients was this: one of the few diagnostic triumphs of psychiatry in the early nineteenth century as the profession began to emerge was that it began to distinguish a group of patients who were deemed to be suffering from something called General Paralysis of the Insane. That encapsulates two things about what was going on.
Andrew Scull
First of all, paralysis; the gradual loss of motor control, ability to walk, ability to swallow, ability to talk. So those are primarily what we’d think of these days as neurological issues. But those were accompanied by bizarre psychiatric symptomatology. These were people who thought they were Napoleon or Jesus Christ or the richest and sexiest man in the world-
First of all, paralysis; the gradual loss of motor control, ability to walk, ability to swallow, ability to talk. So those are primarily what we’d think of these days as neurological issues. But those were accompanied by bizarre psychiatric symptomatology. These were people who thought they were Napoleon or Jesus Christ or the richest and sexiest man in the world-
Andrew Scull
…or Mary the mother of God. They were primarily men but there were also female victims. At the turn of the twentieth century as many as twenty five percent of the people being admitted to asylums were suffering from General Paralysis of the Insane or GPI for short. There have been a lot of suspicions about this being connected somehow to sex and to moral dissolution and so forth but what evolved in the early twentieth century was the discovery of the actual origins of this disorder. So I’ve said psychiatry has been looking for the underlying pathology that lies behind mental diseases. This was one that at Rockefeller Institute they discovered that the organism that causes syphilis was residing in the brains of the people who were suffering from GPI.
…or Mary the mother of God. They were primarily men but there were also female victims. At the turn of the twentieth century as many as twenty five percent of the people being admitted to asylums were suffering from General Paralysis of the Insane or GPI for short. There have been a lot of suspicions about this being connected somehow to sex and to moral dissolution and so forth but what evolved in the early twentieth century was the discovery of the actual origins of this disorder. So I’ve said psychiatry has been looking for the underlying pathology that lies behind mental diseases. This was one that at Rockefeller Institute they discovered that the organism that causes syphilis was residing in the brains of the people who were suffering from GPI.
Andrew Scull
This was in fact tertiary stage of syphilis. Syphilis is still a real public health problem. It was like AIDS in the late nineteenth century. It was everywhere. And when you first contract syphilis in the primary phase you have pain, but then it goes underground and you think it’s gone and it lurks the way chicken pox virus lurks and can surface years later, right? It lurks, it lurks, and it’s insidiously damaging. Sometimes it attacks the um, heart and people drop dead of a heart attack in their forties. Ohh, he died of a r– You know, it’s natural heart attack, but in fact it was the syphilis. Or it attacks the central nervous system, the spinal column and the brain, and then you get the paralysis – Mm-hmm …and then you get also the psychiatric symptomatology.
This was in fact tertiary stage of syphilis. Syphilis is still a real public health problem. It was like AIDS in the late nineteenth century. It was everywhere. And when you first contract syphilis in the primary phase you have pain, but then it goes underground and you think it’s gone and it lurks the way chicken pox virus lurks and can surface years later, right? It lurks, it lurks, and it’s insidiously damaging. Sometimes it attacks the um, heart and people drop dead of a heart attack in their forties. Ohh, he died of a r– You know, it’s natural heart attack, but in fact it was the syphilis. Or it attacks the central nervous system, the spinal column and the brain, and then you get the paralysis – Mm-hmm …and then you get also the psychiatric symptomatology.
Andrew Scull
So when that was discovered, that sort of suggested that mental illness might have an infectious origin. Tertiary syphilis, GPI, went on to win for somebody who developed a treatment for it a Nobel Prize, one of only two awarded for psychiatric innovations. One was a lobotomy, the other was giving people malaria to cure their syphilis.
So when that was discovered, that sort of suggested that mental illness might have an infectious origin. Tertiary syphilis, GPI, went on to win for somebody who developed a treatment for it a Nobel Prize, one of only two awarded for psychiatric innovations. One was a lobotomy, the other was giving people malaria to cure their syphilis.
Lex Fridman
In case people didn’t hear that- Giving people malaria- .. In order to cure syphilis
In case people didn’t hear that- Giving people malaria- .. In order to cure syphilis
Andrew Scull
So there was an Austrian doctor, Wagner-Jauregg, who had long thought that fever could be used to cure mental illness. And he tried rat bite fever. He tried giving people typhoid vaccine that creates a fever to no avail. And towards the end of World War I, the Italians were fighting in World War I on the side of the British and the Americans and the French. They captured an Italian soldier who had malaria. Malaria was endemic in those years in Italy. And they brought him to him, and he extracted the malarial blood and injected it into a series of patients with GPI, with general paralysis of the insane, and claimed it cured them.
So there was an Austrian doctor, Wagner-Jauregg, who had long thought that fever could be used to cure mental illness. And he tried rat bite fever. He tried giving people typhoid vaccine that creates a fever to no avail. And towards the end of World War I, the Italians were fighting in World War I on the side of the British and the Americans and the French. They captured an Italian soldier who had malaria. Malaria was endemic in those years in Italy. And they brought him to him, and he extracted the malarial blood and injected it into a series of patients with GPI, with general paralysis of the insane, and claimed it cured them.
Andrew Scull
We know from later on when he fessed up that those claims were wildly exaggerated, but they were widely accepted, and malarial treatment spread to Britain, it spread to Germany, it spread to the United States. Sometimes it was vials of malarial blood, but very often mental hospitals had actual colonies of malarial mosquitoes. So imagine you’re a mental patient, and you’re put in a straitjacket, and you’re put in a room, and you can’t move, and mosquitoes are buzzing around, and they bite you, and then you develop malaria.
We know from later on when he fessed up that those claims were wildly exaggerated, but they were widely accepted, and malarial treatment spread to Britain, it spread to Germany, it spread to the United States. Sometimes it was vials of malarial blood, but very often mental hospitals had actual colonies of malarial mosquitoes. So imagine you’re a mental patient, and you’re put in a straitjacket, and you’re put in a room, and you can’t move, and mosquitoes are buzzing around, and they bite you, and then you develop malaria.
Lex Fridman
And he got a Nobel Prize for this?
And he got a Nobel Prize for this?
Andrew Scull
Yes, in 1937, he got a Nobel Prize. ‘Cause this was a condition that was invariably fatal. And the claim was that somehow the malarial fever worked. Now, there are two possible ways. Von Jauregg thought it stimulated the immune system to attack whatever it was, was causing the insanity. But the other possibility was the following: When you have the malarial parasite in a test tube and you heat the test tube to about 105, 106 degrees, it dies. So the idea potentially was you were sort of burning the parasites out of the brain with this agent. And because people were pretty unsophisticated about statistics and because the idea of a controlled trial had not yet come to pass, this treatment was used extensively for a couple of decades.
Yes, in 1937, he got a Nobel Prize. ‘Cause this was a condition that was invariably fatal. And the claim was that somehow the malarial fever worked. Now, there are two possible ways. Von Jauregg thought it stimulated the immune system to attack whatever it was, was causing the insanity. But the other possibility was the following: When you have the malarial parasite in a test tube and you heat the test tube to about 105, 106 degrees, it dies. So the idea potentially was you were sort of burning the parasites out of the brain with this agent. And because people were pretty unsophisticated about statistics and because the idea of a controlled trial had not yet come to pass, this treatment was used extensively for a couple of decades.
Andrew Scull
What caused it to stop, and you talk about the progress of science, was the discovery of penicillin, which was a real magic bullet.
What caused it to stop, and you talk about the progress of science, was the discovery of penicillin, which was a real magic bullet.
Andrew Scull
So once you had penicillin, you weren’t gonna continue treating people with malaria, so it died away. But it was the first such treatment, and here’s the other way this feeds into the narrative of these desperate remedies that develop in this period between the mid-‘teens and, say, 1950. The discovery of the syphilitic origins of general paralysis of the insane occurred at a time when medicine had undergone a profound transformation. In the late 19th century, the work of Louis Pasteur, who was a chemist, not an MD, and the work of Robert Koch in Germany had uncovered the origins of a variety of diseases and suggested that bacteria were the reason why people sickened.
So once you had penicillin, you weren’t gonna continue treating people with malaria, so it died away. But it was the first such treatment, and here’s the other way this feeds into the narrative of these desperate remedies that develop in this period between the mid-‘teens and, say, 1950. The discovery of the syphilitic origins of general paralysis of the insane occurred at a time when medicine had undergone a profound transformation. In the late 19th century, the work of Louis Pasteur, who was a chemist, not an MD, and the work of Robert Koch in Germany had uncovered the origins of a variety of diseases and suggested that bacteria were the reason why people sickened.
Andrew Scull
And that led, of course, to a whole series of public health triumphs, because initially it didn’t lead to antibiotics. But for a lot of these diseases, even viral diseases like rabies, you could develop a vaccine.
And that led, of course, to a whole series of public health triumphs, because initially it didn’t lead to antibiotics. But for a lot of these diseases, even viral diseases like rabies, you could develop a vaccine.
Andrew Scull
And the vaccines were phenomenally effective. And so that was one way in which the new germ theory of disease transformed medicine and tied it into the laboratory and into science in a new way. And the other was the adaptation of Pasteur’s theories by a British surgeon named Lister, who previously when pus developed post-surgery, people had thought that was a good sign. Lister said, “No, I don’t think so. This is actually these nasty germs causing this, and so we’re gonna do antiseptic surgery.” So he sprayed carbolic acid on the wounds to try to kill the microbes. Most of his colleagues thought he was nuts. Thought he was just– This is ridiculous, these microorganisms. You couldn’t even see them, you know? Well, you could with a… But Lister prevailed.
And the vaccines were phenomenally effective. And so that was one way in which the new germ theory of disease transformed medicine and tied it into the laboratory and into science in a new way. And the other was the adaptation of Pasteur’s theories by a British surgeon named Lister, who previously when pus developed post-surgery, people had thought that was a good sign. Lister said, “No, I don’t think so. This is actually these nasty germs causing this, and so we’re gonna do antiseptic surgery.” So he sprayed carbolic acid on the wounds to try to kill the microbes. Most of his colleagues thought he was nuts. Thought he was just– This is ridiculous, these microorganisms. You couldn’t even see them, you know? Well, you could with a… But Lister prevailed.
Andrew Scull
And eventually we moved from antiseptic surgery to aseptic surgery, which is what we have now, where you try to have a sterilized set of instruments in a sterilized environment, so you don’t infect things, right?
And eventually we moved from antiseptic surgery to aseptic surgery, which is what we have now, where you try to have a sterilized set of instruments in a sterilized environment, so you don’t infect things, right?
Lex Fridman
By the way, these are definitive examples of progress in medicine.
By the way, these are definitive examples of progress in medicine.
Andrew Scull
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
Penicillin-
Penicillin-
Andrew Scull
Yes
Yes
Lex Fridman
…you know, making sure there’s no germs in during surgery.
…you know, making sure there’s no germs in during surgery.
Andrew Scull
Associated with wounds, yes.
Associated with wounds, yes.
Lex Fridman
So these are all just refreshingly clear examples of progress. The reason I say it’s refreshingly clear that there’s progress, there’s not a refreshingly clear progress in the history of psychiatry. Maybe, maybe a few hints.
So these are all just refreshingly clear examples of progress. The reason I say it’s refreshingly clear that there’s progress, there’s not a refreshingly clear progress in the history of psychiatry. Maybe, maybe a few hints.
Andrew Scull
Some bits, yes. There haven’t been the dramatic breakthroughs that I think everybody in the field would hope for. And there’s some debate about how powerful what we have done is, and I think it’s reasonable to debate that and to also acknowledge that there is important progress, limited as it is. Now you have 25% of the admits to a mental hospital actually suffering from an infectious disease. Medicine in general has now tied its fortunes to the laboratory. The idea that disease is caused by bacteria, we can’t yet see viruses.
Some bits, yes. There haven’t been the dramatic breakthroughs that I think everybody in the field would hope for. And there’s some debate about how powerful what we have done is, and I think it’s reasonable to debate that and to also acknowledge that there is important progress, limited as it is. Now you have 25% of the admits to a mental hospital actually suffering from an infectious disease. Medicine in general has now tied its fortunes to the laboratory. The idea that disease is caused by bacteria, we can’t yet see viruses.
Andrew Scull
It is a very powerful one and that notion that disease is caused by bacterial infection acquires great momentum, but it hasn’t touched psychiatry. So medicine now has interventions that work, and sometimes quite dramatically. You know, the first patient given diphtheria vaccine– Diphtheria causes a leather-like membrane to grow over your throat and you die choking to death. And if you have a child and you watch that child die like that, you will never be over it. So when you had something that warded that off, that improved medicine’s image dramatically and improved its financial prospects dramatically, particularly as medical training became reformed and more involved with science. So that hasn’t applied to psychiatry until syphilis comes along. Now we have the model that an infectious
It is a very powerful one and that notion that disease is caused by bacterial infection acquires great momentum, but it hasn’t touched psychiatry. So medicine now has interventions that work, and sometimes quite dramatically. You know, the first patient given diphtheria vaccine– Diphtheria causes a leather-like membrane to grow over your throat and you die choking to death. And if you have a child and you watch that child die like that, you will never be over it. So when you had something that warded that off, that improved medicine’s image dramatically and improved its financial prospects dramatically, particularly as medical training became reformed and more involved with science. So that hasn’t applied to psychiatry until syphilis comes along. Now we have the model that an infectious
Andrew Scull
agent can cause people’s minds to go amok
agent can cause people’s minds to go amok
Andrew Scull
So the very person who invents the basic distinction between kinds of psychoses we still use today, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, Emil Kraepelin, begins to think, “You know, there may be something infectious about the mental illnesses we’re treating.” And one of the people he trains is a young psychiatrist from the United States named Henry Cotton, who’s also been trained by Adolf Meyer, who is the leading American psychiatrist of the first forty years of the twentieth century. And when he comes back from Germany having spent a year there, Meyer secures him a position as head of the New Jersey State Mental Hospital at Trenton. And Cotton is an ambitious, reforming man. He wants to bring psychiatry back to medicine. He also wants to chuck out all the old stuff. He doesn’t want chains in his
So the very person who invents the basic distinction between kinds of psychoses we still use today, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, Emil Kraepelin, begins to think, “You know, there may be something infectious about the mental illnesses we’re treating.” And one of the people he trains is a young psychiatrist from the United States named Henry Cotton, who’s also been trained by Adolf Meyer, who is the leading American psychiatrist of the first forty years of the twentieth century. And when he comes back from Germany having spent a year there, Meyer secures him a position as head of the New Jersey State Mental Hospital at Trenton. And Cotton is an ambitious, reforming man. He wants to bring psychiatry back to medicine. He also wants to chuck out all the old stuff. He doesn’t want chains in his
Andrew Scull
hospital. He doesn’t want, if he can help it, straightjackets. So that goes away, but nothing seems to change fundamentally. He still isn’t curing patients. And then he comes across this idea of focal sepsis, the idea that low-grade infections can lurk in the body, and what they do is release toxins into the bloodstream and the lymph. And hey, imagine if those toxins get to the brain. What’s it going to do? It’s gonna poison the brain, and the brain is then gonna act up.
hospital. He doesn’t want, if he can help it, straightjackets. So that goes away, but nothing seems to change fundamentally. He still isn’t curing patients. And then he comes across this idea of focal sepsis, the idea that low-grade infections can lurk in the body, and what they do is release toxins into the bloodstream and the lymph. And hey, imagine if those toxins get to the brain. What’s it going to do? It’s gonna poison the brain, and the brain is then gonna act up.
Andrew Scull
So we don’t have antibiotics. So what are we gonna do about this? Well, we can perhaps locate the bacterial infection and then we can get rid of it. We can engage in what he calls surgical bacteriology. So the first obvious target here is teeth. Your teeth look close to your brain. They’re often infected. That infection often goes untreated for a time… So we pull a lot of teeth. Patients don’t get better. Mm, maybe the theory’s wrong? No. Um, tonsils, well, they’re getting infected, so we’ll remove them. Still don’t get better. Well, they’re swallowing the bacteria, so we remove stomachs, and we remove spleens, and we remove colons. And we claim to be curing eighty percent of our patients. And rich patients come from all over America to be treated with this novel treatment.
So we don’t have antibiotics. So what are we gonna do about this? Well, we can perhaps locate the bacterial infection and then we can get rid of it. We can engage in what he calls surgical bacteriology. So the first obvious target here is teeth. Your teeth look close to your brain. They’re often infected. That infection often goes untreated for a time… So we pull a lot of teeth. Patients don’t get better. Mm, maybe the theory’s wrong? No. Um, tonsils, well, they’re getting infected, so we’ll remove them. Still don’t get better. Well, they’re swallowing the bacteria, so we remove stomachs, and we remove spleens, and we remove colons. And we claim to be curing eighty percent of our patients. And rich patients come from all over America to be treated with this novel treatment.
Lex Fridman
Crazy
Crazy
Andrew Scull
Cotton gives a series of lectures at Princeton. There were not some lectures which are given by Nobel Prize winners. There’s a very prestigious series. It’s published by Oxford University Press and Princeton University Press. The New York Times hails it as a great breakthrough. And in reality, forty-five percent of the people who get the abdominal surgery die within a year.
Cotton gives a series of lectures at Princeton. There were not some lectures which are given by Nobel Prize winners. There’s a very prestigious series. It’s published by Oxford University Press and Princeton University Press. The New York Times hails it as a great breakthrough. And in reality, forty-five percent of the people who get the abdominal surgery die within a year.
Lex Fridman
They’re cutting out stomachs
They’re cutting out stomachs
Andrew Scull
Yep. He’s cutting out stomachs. He says –there’s this passage in one of his papers where he says “stomachs are like cement mixers on a construction site and could be dispensed with.” When you think oh my God. If you were released from Trenton and you had no teeth, people immediately knew you were an ex-patient because the word had spread. And this goes on for– starting in nineteen sixteen. Cotton drops dead of a heart attack in nineteen thirty-three, but he’s succeeded by three people he’s trained. They drop the abdominal surgery. They use colonic irrigation, but the teeth and the tonsils keep being pulled. I interviewed the dentist who had come to the hospital in nineteen sixteen and must have pulled several hundred thousand teeth, and he retired in nineteen sixty, which was when
Yep. He’s cutting out stomachs. He says –there’s this passage in one of his papers where he says “stomachs are like cement mixers on a construction site and could be dispensed with.” When you think oh my God. If you were released from Trenton and you had no teeth, people immediately knew you were an ex-patient because the word had spread. And this goes on for– starting in nineteen sixteen. Cotton drops dead of a heart attack in nineteen thirty-three, but he’s succeeded by three people he’s trained. They drop the abdominal surgery. They use colonic irrigation, but the teeth and the tonsils keep being pulled. I interviewed the dentist who had come to the hospital in nineteen sixteen and must have pulled several hundred thousand teeth, and he retired in nineteen sixty, which was when
Andrew Scull
that finally stopped. And he was convinced Cotton should have won the Nobel Prize for this. Oh well.
that finally stopped. And he was convinced Cotton should have won the Nobel Prize for this. Oh well.
Lex Fridman
Can you just give some intuition, put ourselves in that mind space, I mean, presumably these are smart human beings, why were they fraudulent in the reporting of how effective it is? Why are all the people that are participating, both the doctors and general culture–
Can you just give some intuition, put ourselves in that mind space, I mean, presumably these are smart human beings, why were they fraudulent in the reporting of how effective it is? Why are all the people that are participating, both the doctors and general culture–
Andrew Scull
it’s extraordinary. So obviously, many of the interventions I’m talking about are very powerful interventions conducted by people in white coats and stethoscopes and scalpels.
it’s extraordinary. So obviously, many of the interventions I’m talking about are very powerful interventions conducted by people in white coats and stethoscopes and scalpels.
Lex Fridman
Powerful by the way by the amount of impact they have on the human body, not powerful in terms of how effective they are.
Powerful by the way by the amount of impact they have on the human body, not powerful in terms of how effective they are.
Andrew Scull
Yes, powerful as well in terms of placebo effect. Look, what I am going to do to you and yes it’s gonna hurt and it’s very intimate, but it’s going to make you better. So that’s always– this is a problem that persists in contemporary psychiatry, trying to figure out how much of the improvement we’re seeing is the placebo effect and how much of it is the active effect of whatever we’re doing.
Yes, powerful as well in terms of placebo effect. Look, what I am going to do to you and yes it’s gonna hurt and it’s very intimate, but it’s going to make you better. So that’s always– this is a problem that persists in contemporary psychiatry, trying to figure out how much of the improvement we’re seeing is the placebo effect and how much of it is the active effect of whatever we’re doing.
Lex Fridman
But by the way, on that small tangent, let’s return to that perhaps often.
But by the way, on that small tangent, let’s return to that perhaps often.
Andrew Scull
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
I for one can tell you that for me, for my mind, the placebo effect even when you tell me it’s placebo will work.
I for one can tell you that for me, for my mind, the placebo effect even when you tell me it’s placebo will work.
Andrew Scull
Yes!
Yes!
Lex Fridman
But now if you have combined an actual gigantic operation that is physically, mentally, in every way life changing – … everybody around you in lab coats, all of society’s telling you this is going to be life changing. I get it. That’s like the most pure kind of placebo effect.
But now if you have combined an actual gigantic operation that is physically, mentally, in every way life changing – … everybody around you in lab coats, all of society’s telling you this is going to be life changing. I get it. That’s like the most pure kind of placebo effect.
Andrew Scull
It’s placebo effect that comes from both the patient who wants to be better-
It’s placebo effect that comes from both the patient who wants to be better-
Andrew Scull
… and wants to believe this is gonna make them, and from the person conducting. And it’s easy to deceive yourself, to see what you want to see. So anyway, that was one episode.
… and wants to believe this is gonna make them, and from the person conducting. And it’s easy to deceive yourself, to see what you want to see. So anyway, that was one episode.
Insulin Coma Therapy
Andrew Scull
We talk about triumphs of medicine, so let me talk about one of the real triumphs of 20th century medicine, which is interesting to refer to because it wasn’t a cure, just like psychiatric drugs aren’t a cure for mental illness. It was a symptomatic treatment, but it transformed lives, and that was the discovery of insulin in the 1920s. Previously, particularly what we now call Type One or juvenile diabetes, was a death sentence. You got it and whatever you did, you tried various quack remedies, you tried diet, you tried all sorts of things. The inevitable thing was it killed you. And then came insulin.
We talk about triumphs of medicine, so let me talk about one of the real triumphs of 20th century medicine, which is interesting to refer to because it wasn’t a cure, just like psychiatric drugs aren’t a cure for mental illness. It was a symptomatic treatment, but it transformed lives, and that was the discovery of insulin in the 1920s. Previously, particularly what we now call Type One or juvenile diabetes, was a death sentence. You got it and whatever you did, you tried various quack remedies, you tried diet, you tried all sorts of things. The inevitable thing was it killed you. And then came insulin.
Andrew Scull
Now insulin doesn’t mean you’re cured of your diabetes, but what it means is you can live a relatively normal life and your lifespan is greatly expanded. So by any measure, you have to say that’s dramatic progress. But insulin is something our bodies produce, we hope, unless we’re really seriously diabetic. Those of us with Type Two diabetes, our bodies resist insulin and we have to resort to other ways of trying to cope. But if you get too much insulin, it makes you unconscious and that’s how another one of these desperate remedies came along. A man named Sakel working in a German clinic for drug addicts, they were putting people under mild comas to help them through the withdrawal symptoms once they got over their addiction. So he was familiar with that.
Now insulin doesn’t mean you’re cured of your diabetes, but what it means is you can live a relatively normal life and your lifespan is greatly expanded. So by any measure, you have to say that’s dramatic progress. But insulin is something our bodies produce, we hope, unless we’re really seriously diabetic. Those of us with Type Two diabetes, our bodies resist insulin and we have to resort to other ways of trying to cope. But if you get too much insulin, it makes you unconscious and that’s how another one of these desperate remedies came along. A man named Sakel working in a German clinic for drug addicts, they were putting people under mild comas to help them through the withdrawal symptoms once they got over their addiction. So he was familiar with that.
Andrew Scull
And when he moved to Austria, he decided he’d try this as a treatment for schizophrenia. And so he put people into comas, sometimes comas that would last hours, days. They would be revived by giving them glucose, usually intravenously, sometimes not. During the time they were in comas, they often seized, had seizures. He saw that as a therapeutic sign. And he claimed that this Insulin Coma Treatment cured eighty percent of his– eighty percent tends to come up again and again in these treatments as a sort of percentage that you cure. And he was invited to New York and demonstrated this at the Harlem Valley Mental Hospital. It spread. This was in the thirties? This was starting in nineteen thirty-three.
And when he moved to Austria, he decided he’d try this as a treatment for schizophrenia. And so he put people into comas, sometimes comas that would last hours, days. They would be revived by giving them glucose, usually intravenously, sometimes not. During the time they were in comas, they often seized, had seizures. He saw that as a therapeutic sign. And he claimed that this Insulin Coma Treatment cured eighty percent of his– eighty percent tends to come up again and again in these treatments as a sort of percentage that you cure. And he was invited to New York and demonstrated this at the Harlem Valley Mental Hospital. It spread. This was in the thirties? This was starting in nineteen thirty-three.
Andrew Scull
The visit to America was I believe nineteen thirty-six, and Sakel ended up settling here. He had a very lucrative private practice in New York, and when he died, he left his partner I think an estate of about two million dollars, which in the early sixties was a very substantial amount of money that he’d earned from practice, right? So insulin coma therapy was widely adopted. What kept it from being a large scale thing was it required an enormous amount of nursing and medical attention ’cause people were literally hovering on the brink of life and death. They could go into a permanent coma, they could just die. So vital signs had to be monitored. They had to be brought around very quickly if need be. And there’s some evidence that the treatment killed brain cells.
The visit to America was I believe nineteen thirty-six, and Sakel ended up settling here. He had a very lucrative private practice in New York, and when he died, he left his partner I think an estate of about two million dollars, which in the early sixties was a very substantial amount of money that he’d earned from practice, right? So insulin coma therapy was widely adopted. What kept it from being a large scale thing was it required an enormous amount of nursing and medical attention ’cause people were literally hovering on the brink of life and death. They could go into a permanent coma, they could just die. So vital signs had to be monitored. They had to be brought around very quickly if need be. And there’s some evidence that the treatment killed brain cells.
Andrew Scull
And when Sakel was told that, he said yes, that’s probably true. They’re killing the schizophrenic brain cells. That’s just nonsense. Of course. That’s just nonsense, but that’s rational. Insulin comas weren’t subjected to a randomized controlled trial until the nineteen fifties, and when they were subjected to a controlled trial, they failed it, and so it died out, and that’s, I guess, scientific progress again in a way, but took a long time. One of the people who received insulin coma therapy, have you seen the film A Beautiful Mind? Mm hmm. He did receive insulin coma therapy. Ironically, actually at Trenton State Hospital where Cotton had been, so John Nash received– John Nash got insulin comas, and they were going to lobotomize him, and they didn’t, but he was at risk of that, we should say.
And when Sakel was told that, he said yes, that’s probably true. They’re killing the schizophrenic brain cells. That’s just nonsense. Of course. That’s just nonsense, but that’s rational. Insulin comas weren’t subjected to a randomized controlled trial until the nineteen fifties, and when they were subjected to a controlled trial, they failed it, and so it died out, and that’s, I guess, scientific progress again in a way, but took a long time. One of the people who received insulin coma therapy, have you seen the film A Beautiful Mind? Mm hmm. He did receive insulin coma therapy. Ironically, actually at Trenton State Hospital where Cotton had been, so John Nash received– John Nash got insulin comas, and they were going to lobotomize him, and they didn’t, but he was at risk of that, we should say.
Andrew Scull
that this treatment, patients would thrash, moan, and convulse before falling into a coma. The treatment required a course of up to sixty comas. It turned out to have a mortality rate of one to five percent and caused significant brain damage and obesity, yeah. Yet was hailed as a miracle cure for schizophrenia. Yes, that’s right, performed on John Nash, one of the great
that this treatment, patients would thrash, moan, and convulse before falling into a coma. The treatment required a course of up to sixty comas. It turned out to have a mortality rate of one to five percent and caused significant brain damage and obesity, yeah. Yet was hailed as a miracle cure for schizophrenia. Yes, that’s right, performed on John Nash, one of the great
Lex Fridman
minds of the 20th century.
minds of the 20th century.
Andrew Scull
Yes, and Nash clearly did become delusional, but that was one of the treatments he was subjected to. And well represented actually in the film of A Beautiful Mind. So I mentioned seizures. Also in Austro-Hungary in this period, another psychiatrist decided that you couldn’t be both schizophrenic and epileptic, that there was somehow an antagonism between the two. So if you had epilepsy, you didn’t have schizophrenia. If you had schizophrenia, couldn’t have epilepsy. I should say at the outset, that’s not true, but that’s what he believed. So then the logical next step was, “Well, if we could create an artificial epileptic seizure, maybe we would drive out the schizophrenia.” So what to do?
Yes, and Nash clearly did become delusional, but that was one of the treatments he was subjected to. And well represented actually in the film of A Beautiful Mind. So I mentioned seizures. Also in Austro-Hungary in this period, another psychiatrist decided that you couldn’t be both schizophrenic and epileptic, that there was somehow an antagonism between the two. So if you had epilepsy, you didn’t have schizophrenia. If you had schizophrenia, couldn’t have epilepsy. I should say at the outset, that’s not true, but that’s what he believed. So then the logical next step was, “Well, if we could create an artificial epileptic seizure, maybe we would drive out the schizophrenia.” So what to do?
Andrew Scull
He first tries injecting camphor, a natural substance. Natural substances aren’t necessarily benign substances. That caused abscesses, and it wasn’t very effective. He sought an alternative, and he settled on something that was called Cardiazol or Metrazol, depended which side of the Atlantic you were on. And injecting that into a patient usually caused a seizure, a big seizure, like a grand mal seizure where your body arcs back, your legs contract dramatically.
He first tries injecting camphor, a natural substance. Natural substances aren’t necessarily benign substances. That caused abscesses, and it wasn’t very effective. He sought an alternative, and he settled on something that was called Cardiazol or Metrazol, depended which side of the Atlantic you were on. And injecting that into a patient usually caused a seizure, a big seizure, like a grand mal seizure where your body arcs back, your legs contract dramatically.
Lex Fridman
You can fracture spines and hips and bones.
You can fracture spines and hips and bones.
Andrew Scull
and you ended up, yes, with fractures of vertebrae, fractures of the hip socket. Because when muscles in the thigh contract that badly, what happens? The thigh bone is driven into the socket at such a rate that it fractures, right? So these were among the complications that Metrazol produced. More than that, he himself conceded that between the injection and the seizure, the patient felt as though he were on—or she was on—the brink of death. Now imagine, pretend you’re a mental patient. You’re brought in in a straitjacket. A man in a white coat with a big hypodermic injects something into you. You feel as though you’re gonna die, and maybe that lingers for two, three, ten minutes, and then you seize with those possible fractures following
and you ended up, yes, with fractures of vertebrae, fractures of the hip socket. Because when muscles in the thigh contract that badly, what happens? The thigh bone is driven into the socket at such a rate that it fractures, right? So these were among the complications that Metrazol produced. More than that, he himself conceded that between the injection and the seizure, the patient felt as though he were on—or she was on—the brink of death. Now imagine, pretend you’re a mental patient. You’re brought in in a straitjacket. A man in a white coat with a big hypodermic injects something into you. You feel as though you’re gonna die, and maybe that lingers for two, three, ten minutes, and then you seize with those possible fractures following
Lex Fridman
violent seizures.
violent seizures.
Andrew Scull
violent seizures. It’s violent and hard to witness and is very unpredictable. So it’s used, but people are not very happy, and that’s how we get electroconvulsive therapy, electroshock, as it’s first called.
violent seizures. It’s violent and hard to witness and is very unpredictable. So it’s used, but people are not very happy, and that’s how we get electroconvulsive therapy, electroshock, as it’s first called.
Electroconvulsive Therapy (ECT)
Andrew Scull
Two Italian psychiatrists, Cerletti and Bini, experiment with electricity, and they first experiment on dogs. And they make a mistake initially: they have an electrode on the head, an electrode on the anus. The electric current passes through the body, it stops the heart, the dogs die. So that seems a dead end. And then somebody says to them, “You know, you should go to the Rome slaughterhouse and see the pigs being slaughtered ’cause you’ll learn something very interesting.” So they go, and the pigs are dangling by their hind legs. And as they come by, two electrodes cross their head, electroshock, they convulse, they’re
Two Italian psychiatrists, Cerletti and Bini, experiment with electricity, and they first experiment on dogs. And they make a mistake initially: they have an electrode on the head, an electrode on the anus. The electric current passes through the body, it stops the heart, the dogs die. So that seems a dead end. And then somebody says to them, “You know, you should go to the Rome slaughterhouse and see the pigs being slaughtered ’cause you’ll learn something very interesting.” So they go, and the pigs are dangling by their hind legs. And as they come by, two electrodes cross their head, electroshock, they convulse, they’re
Andrew Scull
unconscious, their throats are slit, and pork arrives. So they try that on dogs, and current passing through the brain, it turns out, doesn’t kill them. So decide to try it out. They pick up a transient homeless person at the Rome train station, and they bring him in, and they try it. And at first, they don’t use enough current, and nothing very much happens. And they’re very white-faced, they’re quite worried. Off in the corner, we have descriptions of this, and they’re talking, “What should we do?” “Well, we’ll up the current,” and the patient hears that and says, “No, another one, that’s deadly.” They do it anyway, and he convulses. Another grand mal seizure with the same problems of spinal fractures and hip fractures and so on. Not universally, obviously, but often enough. And he
unconscious, their throats are slit, and pork arrives. So they try that on dogs, and current passing through the brain, it turns out, doesn’t kill them. So decide to try it out. They pick up a transient homeless person at the Rome train station, and they bring him in, and they try it. And at first, they don’t use enough current, and nothing very much happens. And they’re very white-faced, they’re quite worried. Off in the corner, we have descriptions of this, and they’re talking, “What should we do?” “Well, we’ll up the current,” and the patient hears that and says, “No, another one, that’s deadly.” They do it anyway, and he convulses. Another grand mal seizure with the same problems of spinal fractures and hip fractures and so on. Not universally, obviously, but often enough. And he
Andrew Scull
stops breathing. You can imagine the scene. And then he spontaneously starts breathing again. And when he comes around, he’s in contact with reality. They got this miracle cure, and it’s very easy to administer, cheap, doesn’t involve injecting things into people’s bodies. So that quickly spreads across the Atlantic and other parts of Europe. And ECT becomes a very widely used intervention. Couple of things to say about this. It turns out it’s not very useful for schizophrenia. Remember the connection between seizures and schizophrenia that was originally posited, but it seems to work in cases of depression, suicidal depression particularly,
stops breathing. You can imagine the scene. And then he spontaneously starts breathing again. And when he comes around, he’s in contact with reality. They got this miracle cure, and it’s very easy to administer, cheap, doesn’t involve injecting things into people’s bodies. So that quickly spreads across the Atlantic and other parts of Europe. And ECT becomes a very widely used intervention. Couple of things to say about this. It turns out it’s not very useful for schizophrenia. Remember the connection between seizures and schizophrenia that was originally posited, but it seems to work in cases of depression, suicidal depression particularly,
Lex Fridman
Fast forwarding to the modern day—mm-hmm—and this is something I learned by reading a bunch recently, it seems to be one of the few evidence-based, like scientifically backed, methods that actually worked for clinical depression, for serious depression.
Fast forwarding to the modern day—mm-hmm—and this is something I learned by reading a bunch recently, it seems to be one of the few evidence-based, like scientifically backed, methods that actually worked for clinical depression, for serious depression.
Andrew Scull
Um yes, if we fast forward, we’re looking at in some respects a different animal for reasons I’ll explain. Okay.
Um yes, if we fast forward, we’re looking at in some respects a different animal for reasons I’ll explain. Okay.
Lex Fridman
This is unmodified ECT.
This is unmodified ECT.
Andrew Scull
Yeah, so we’re talking about unmodified ECT, which rules the roost really well into the 1950s, and some places even into the 1960s. And so it is associated with all the problems of fractures that we’ve talked about. It’s also associated with memory problems. People often lose memory. There’s some dispute about how serious that is, but it’s pretty widely recognized that’s one of the prices you’re gonna pay for that treatment. The thing is, for mental hospitals in the ’40s and ’50s, ECT was much more used as a device to control people’s behavior than as a therapeutic intervention. It was quite punitive, seen as such. Patients didn’t wanna repeat, and so they-
Yeah, so we’re talking about unmodified ECT, which rules the roost really well into the 1950s, and some places even into the 1960s. And so it is associated with all the problems of fractures that we’ve talked about. It’s also associated with memory problems. People often lose memory. There’s some dispute about how serious that is, but it’s pretty widely recognized that’s one of the prices you’re gonna pay for that treatment. The thing is, for mental hospitals in the ’40s and ’50s, ECT was much more used as a device to control people’s behavior than as a therapeutic intervention. It was quite punitive, seen as such. Patients didn’t wanna repeat, and so they-
Andrew Scull
… sort of controlled themselves a bit. But yes, we don’t know why it works, but more recent work starting in probably the 1990s—and I’m gonna get in trouble with some people for saying this because you mentioned patients and psychiatrists who swear by ECT. There are others who swear at it.
… sort of controlled themselves a bit. But yes, we don’t know why it works, but more recent work starting in probably the 1990s—and I’m gonna get in trouble with some people for saying this because you mentioned patients and psychiatrists who swear by ECT. There are others who swear at it.
Andrew Scull
Partly because of the memory problems I alluded to, and partly because of claims that it may cause brain damage. Passing an electric current through the brain is possible. What changed ECT a bit, quite a bit actually, was giving muscle relaxants so that people didn’t thrash about, and the fractures were largely a thing of the past. When you introduce these muscle relaxers, originally they used curare, but then they used other more modern drugs to paralyze the muscles temporarily. Problem is, that would also paralyze your breathing muscles, so that’s not too good. So it became a more complicated procedure because you needed anesthesiologist breathing support and so forth during the procedure. But you did eliminate the fractures.
Partly because of the memory problems I alluded to, and partly because of claims that it may cause brain damage. Passing an electric current through the brain is possible. What changed ECT a bit, quite a bit actually, was giving muscle relaxants so that people didn’t thrash about, and the fractures were largely a thing of the past. When you introduce these muscle relaxers, originally they used curare, but then they used other more modern drugs to paralyze the muscles temporarily. Problem is, that would also paralyze your breathing muscles, so that’s not too good. So it became a more complicated procedure because you needed anesthesiologist breathing support and so forth during the procedure. But you did eliminate the fractures.
Andrew Scull
It still was a very widely disdained practice, I think, particularly when they had drugs available. The thinking was that, well, we’d sooner use those, but the drugs turn out to be only partially effective and pretty ineffective very often for suicidal cases or in cases of extreme melancholia. Now, a couple things to say: Very often, ECT has to be repeated at intervals, as a kind of maintenance therapy. So it hasn’t cured things, but it temporarily alleviates the symptoms, and the temporary may be fairly lengthy, but nonetheless, very often things will recur. The memory problems can be quite severe. The worries about brain damage are, I think, certainly things we have to be very cautious about. And when we talk about treatment-resistant depression, that’s an interesting concept to me.
It still was a very widely disdained practice, I think, particularly when they had drugs available. The thinking was that, well, we’d sooner use those, but the drugs turn out to be only partially effective and pretty ineffective very often for suicidal cases or in cases of extreme melancholia. Now, a couple things to say: Very often, ECT has to be repeated at intervals, as a kind of maintenance therapy. So it hasn’t cured things, but it temporarily alleviates the symptoms, and the temporary may be fairly lengthy, but nonetheless, very often things will recur. The memory problems can be quite severe. The worries about brain damage are, I think, certainly things we have to be very cautious about. And when we talk about treatment-resistant depression, that’s an interesting concept to me.
Andrew Scull
What it means is those are the patients who don’t respond to drugs. They may not have a different disease, but the drugs don’t work for them, hence treatment resistant. And the numbers of psychiatrists who are willing to give ECT are rather small, and in many states it’s hedged around with lots of legal restrictions. In California, for example, ECT now almost can’t be given to involuntarily confined patients ’cause you have to volunteer for it.
What it means is those are the patients who don’t respond to drugs. They may not have a different disease, but the drugs don’t work for them, hence treatment resistant. And the numbers of psychiatrists who are willing to give ECT are rather small, and in many states it’s hedged around with lots of legal restrictions. In California, for example, ECT now almost can’t be given to involuntarily confined patients ’cause you have to volunteer for it.
Andrew Scull
So it’s unusual in that most medical procedures aren’t hedged about by legal constraints like that. And there clearly is a very powerful group of people, some of them psychiatrists, many of them ex-patients, many of them other people who just are suspicious of modern medicine and science, who form a group who are very powerfully opposed to ECT. So although it’s fair to say there are trials now that seem to provide decent evidence that for some patients this works and that those patients are deeply distressed before the treatment, it’s also still a controversial treatment, I think it’s fair to say.
So it’s unusual in that most medical procedures aren’t hedged about by legal constraints like that. And there clearly is a very powerful group of people, some of them psychiatrists, many of them ex-patients, many of them other people who just are suspicious of modern medicine and science, who form a group who are very powerfully opposed to ECT. So although it’s fair to say there are trials now that seem to provide decent evidence that for some patients this works and that those patients are deeply distressed before the treatment, it’s also still a controversial treatment, I think it’s fair to say.
Lex Fridman
Like basically every single topic, treatment, problem subfield of psychiatry today.
Like basically every single topic, treatment, problem subfield of psychiatry today.
Andrew Scull
Yes, yes.
Yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
For everything, everything we say today, there will be at least one person upset- …and writing a letter.
For everything, everything we say today, there will be at least one person upset- …and writing a letter.
Andrew Scull
I think lots of people upset. So if we talk about drugs, there’ll be two kinds of people who will be upset: those who think the drugs are more powerful than they are or who have been successfully treated by the drugs and go, “Well, it worked for me, so, you know, stop criticizing it ’cause it really is an effective treatment.” And then on the other side of the coin, there are those who either the drug treatment has been used and it’s failed, or they’re being left with terrible side effects that don’t go away, or they’re part of a general group of people that unfortunately is of a growing number these days who are so suspicious of medical science and of the drug companies that no amount of evidence will sway them.
I think lots of people upset. So if we talk about drugs, there’ll be two kinds of people who will be upset: those who think the drugs are more powerful than they are or who have been successfully treated by the drugs and go, “Well, it worked for me, so, you know, stop criticizing it ’cause it really is an effective treatment.” And then on the other side of the coin, there are those who either the drug treatment has been used and it’s failed, or they’re being left with terrible side effects that don’t go away, or they’re part of a general group of people that unfortunately is of a growing number these days who are so suspicious of medical science and of the drug companies that no amount of evidence will sway them.
Andrew Scull
They are convinced that you know, the, the drug treatments are poisonous. The Scientologists being a very extreme example of that who they have a whole museum in Los Angeles and the title is Psychiatry Industry of Death. And then if you think about all the resistance, for example, that has surfaced to vaccination in contemporary US and how the trust in vaccination has been destroyed for a substantial number of people, it’s very difficult to convince them that they’re mistaken.
They are convinced that you know, the, the drug treatments are poisonous. The Scientologists being a very extreme example of that who they have a whole museum in Los Angeles and the title is Psychiatry Industry of Death. And then if you think about all the resistance, for example, that has surfaced to vaccination in contemporary US and how the trust in vaccination has been destroyed for a substantial number of people, it’s very difficult to convince them that they’re mistaken.
Lex Fridman
And not just the trust in vaccination, consequence of that is a general distrust in science-
And not just the trust in vaccination, consequence of that is a general distrust in science-
Andrew Scull
A general distrust, exactly.
A general distrust, exactly.
Lex Fridman
… and distrust in medicine and so on.
… and distrust in medicine and so on.
Andrew Scull
That’s one of my great worries about our contemporary situation, that we’re only– We’re less than a year in. After four years of this, first of all, the degree of mistrust will have grown exponentially, and once trust is lost, it’s very hard to recover. Secondly, the science itself is being destroyed. Clinical trials that were midway through were aborted, so that knowledge has been lost. You would have to start from square one, and that’s years of work. Scientists aren’t being trained because funding has been cut. Scientists with successful careers no longer have the funding necessary to do their work, and it takes at least six or seven years to train a scientist at the beginning of their career.
That’s one of my great worries about our contemporary situation, that we’re only– We’re less than a year in. After four years of this, first of all, the degree of mistrust will have grown exponentially, and once trust is lost, it’s very hard to recover. Secondly, the science itself is being destroyed. Clinical trials that were midway through were aborted, so that knowledge has been lost. You would have to start from square one, and that’s years of work. Scientists aren’t being trained because funding has been cut. Scientists with successful careers no longer have the funding necessary to do their work, and it takes at least six or seven years to train a scientist at the beginning of their career.
Andrew Scull
And so if you have four years with nobody being trained, you’re talking about a decade being lost, and what’s lost is invisible- …because it’s counterfactuals. We don’t know what that science will lead to or what that medical treatment might lead to, and very many times they fail. That’s the nature of science. It’s the nature of medicine and medical research that not every bright idea we have is going to eventuate in a breakthrough. It would be really simple and wonderful if that was opposite were the case. But the reality is we have to go down lots of blind alleys, we have to try lots of different things, and we have to take years to move from the laboratory to practical application. And when we eliminate a whole segment of that and when on top of that we diminish people’s trust-
And so if you have four years with nobody being trained, you’re talking about a decade being lost, and what’s lost is invisible- …because it’s counterfactuals. We don’t know what that science will lead to or what that medical treatment might lead to, and very many times they fail. That’s the nature of science. It’s the nature of medicine and medical research that not every bright idea we have is going to eventuate in a breakthrough. It would be really simple and wonderful if that was opposite were the case. But the reality is we have to go down lots of blind alleys, we have to try lots of different things, and we have to take years to move from the laboratory to practical application. And when we eliminate a whole segment of that and when on top of that we diminish people’s trust-
Andrew Scull
…in science, that’s a really, I think, a profoundly devastating thing that probably given my advanced age, I won’t live to see the consequences of, but my children and grandchildren will. It really is something cultural that you’ve got to build up trust.
…in science, that’s a really, I think, a profoundly devastating thing that probably given my advanced age, I won’t live to see the consequences of, but my children and grandchildren will. It really is something cultural that you’ve got to build up trust.
Andrew Scull
And it can be destroyed very easily. So one of the things, to go back to the very first question you asked me about, is psychiatry in crisis? Well, genetics was supposed to provide a clear picture of the origins of various mental diseases ’cause they do seem to run in families. So the expectation was once we decoded the human genome and we could examine bits and pieces of it, that we would very quickly find a Mendelian gene or set of genes for schizophrenia, let us say. Hasn’t happened. We now use gene-wide association studies, that is throwing everything in the kitchen soup into, into the picture, and then without any preconditions, seeing what relates to what. And if we use three hundred small variations in the genome, we can account for about ten percent of schizophrenia.
And it can be destroyed very easily. So one of the things, to go back to the very first question you asked me about, is psychiatry in crisis? Well, genetics was supposed to provide a clear picture of the origins of various mental diseases ’cause they do seem to run in families. So the expectation was once we decoded the human genome and we could examine bits and pieces of it, that we would very quickly find a Mendelian gene or set of genes for schizophrenia, let us say. Hasn’t happened. We now use gene-wide association studies, that is throwing everything in the kitchen soup into, into the picture, and then without any preconditions, seeing what relates to what. And if we use three hundred small variations in the genome, we can account for about ten percent of schizophrenia.
Andrew Scull
That’s not very powerful. Beyond that, what psychiatric genetics has tended to throw up is something that undermines the distinctions that we’ve made based on symptomatology. So if you look, there is a great deal of overlap in the kinds of genetic abnormalities that heighten the susceptibility to bipolar disorder or schizophrenia or autism. There’s a lot of overlap there. What that suggests is these aren’t distinctive entities in the way that, you know… Schizophrenia, as my friend Robin Murray, a British psychiatrist, has to say, “It really seems to be the extreme end of psychosis, the most serious.” But it’s sort of on a continuum, you know.
That’s not very powerful. Beyond that, what psychiatric genetics has tended to throw up is something that undermines the distinctions that we’ve made based on symptomatology. So if you look, there is a great deal of overlap in the kinds of genetic abnormalities that heighten the susceptibility to bipolar disorder or schizophrenia or autism. There’s a lot of overlap there. What that suggests is these aren’t distinctive entities in the way that, you know… Schizophrenia, as my friend Robin Murray, a British psychiatrist, has to say, “It really seems to be the extreme end of psychosis, the most serious.” But it’s sort of on a continuum, you know.
Andrew Scull
And so if psychiatry has to say in ten years, as some leading psychiatrists are speculating, that there’s no such thing as schizophrenia, there’s no such thing as bipolar disorder, that will tend, I suspect, to have pretty bad effects on people’s trust-
And so if psychiatry has to say in ten years, as some leading psychiatrists are speculating, that there’s no such thing as schizophrenia, there’s no such thing as bipolar disorder, that will tend, I suspect, to have pretty bad effects on people’s trust-
Andrew Scull
…in psychiatry, and yet that’s where the science may lead them. So it’s a, it’s a complicated picture, but this issue of trust and its absence is vital, I think, in looking at not just what we’re talking about today, but across a whole spectrum of things, even outside the medical realm altogether. If you lose trust in institutions, trust in science, trust in history. So I think more humility and less arrogance, more willingness to confess the limits of what we can do, more awareness of the dangers of enthusiasm, more skepticism when we’re told something is a breakthrough. One of the things I worry about is the tendency of science journalism and medical journalism to hype things, and, and then when the hype turns out to be just that, that undermines trust.
…in psychiatry, and yet that’s where the science may lead them. So it’s a, it’s a complicated picture, but this issue of trust and its absence is vital, I think, in looking at not just what we’re talking about today, but across a whole spectrum of things, even outside the medical realm altogether. If you lose trust in institutions, trust in science, trust in history. So I think more humility and less arrogance, more willingness to confess the limits of what we can do, more awareness of the dangers of enthusiasm, more skepticism when we’re told something is a breakthrough. One of the things I worry about is the tendency of science journalism and medical journalism to hype things, and, and then when the hype turns out to be just that, that undermines trust.
Andrew Scull
You know? So be cautious when things come along- … don’t be so sure that it represents a breakthrough. I’m very worried at the moment. I see ketamine and psychedelics being propounded as a miracle cure for depression, and the evidence for that is enormously weak is the best way to put it. And I’ve seen this movie before too many times. You know? I mentioned that 80% cure for Cotton’s work, 80% cure for insulin coma therapy, 80% cure for the early asylums. This is overblown rhetoric, and the reality is usually progress comes in small steps.
You know? So be cautious when things come along- … don’t be so sure that it represents a breakthrough. I’m very worried at the moment. I see ketamine and psychedelics being propounded as a miracle cure for depression, and the evidence for that is enormously weak is the best way to put it. And I’ve seen this movie before too many times. You know? I mentioned that 80% cure for Cotton’s work, 80% cure for insulin coma therapy, 80% cure for the early asylums. This is overblown rhetoric, and the reality is usually progress comes in small steps.
Andrew Scull
Sometimes it comes in big steps. Penicillin, I think was a huge step. Uh, I was lucky enough to grow up in the era when penicillin and other antibiotics became widely available. They hadn’t been overused by then. And so if I had a strep throat, I had something that got rid of it right away. I didn’t run the risk of heart valve damage, which in previous times would’ve been the case. So you know, once in a while you do have these dramatic shifts, and maybe AI will help us in that regard, but maybe it won’t. It’s another potential double-edged sword.
Sometimes it comes in big steps. Penicillin, I think was a huge step. Uh, I was lucky enough to grow up in the era when penicillin and other antibiotics became widely available. They hadn’t been overused by then. And so if I had a strep throat, I had something that got rid of it right away. I didn’t run the risk of heart valve damage, which in previous times would’ve been the case. So you know, once in a while you do have these dramatic shifts, and maybe AI will help us in that regard, but maybe it won’t. It’s another potential double-edged sword.
Lex Fridman
I should mention that psychedelics, psilocybin in particular, has been demonized for a long time. And so there’s studies now out of Johns Hopkins- … that are doing serious studies on cases where it is effective. I think it’s nice to give a chance to the different treatments with the rigor of science, but with caution – … and basically ignoring like you’re saying, science journalists who are basically hyping every new thing ’cause they have to get clicks and all- … this kind of stuff and- … Look at the actual science in the modern day. So the- … in the past, the rigor was not there. In the modern day, there’s more.
I should mention that psychedelics, psilocybin in particular, has been demonized for a long time. And so there’s studies now out of Johns Hopkins- … that are doing serious studies on cases where it is effective. I think it’s nice to give a chance to the different treatments with the rigor of science, but with caution – … and basically ignoring like you’re saying, science journalists who are basically hyping every new thing ’cause they have to get clicks and all- … this kind of stuff and- … Look at the actual science in the modern day. So the- … in the past, the rigor was not there. In the modern day, there’s more.
Andrew Scull
Yes. We can add beyond the realm of science journalists. I think Science and Nature make choices about what they’re gonna foreground, and they too have this tendency to look for things that make a big splash.
Yes. We can add beyond the realm of science journalists. I think Science and Nature make choices about what they’re gonna foreground, and they too have this tendency to look for things that make a big splash.
Lex Fridman
Oh, you mean the editors and the- … the major journals.
Oh, you mean the editors and the- … the major journals.
Andrew Scull
I think the editors, the major journals, that’s what they’re looking for. As you know, I mean, negative findings are very important in science. They’re the things that help us avoid mistakes, but they’re not the things that are going to get you published in the journal.
I think the editors, the major journals, that’s what they’re looking for. As you know, I mean, negative findings are very important in science. They’re the things that help us avoid mistakes, but they’re not the things that are going to get you published in the journal.
Lex Fridman
Right. So it’s not just the surface level science journalism. It is also the extra journals and the conferences and the publication process.
Right. So it’s not just the surface level science journalism. It is also the extra journals and the conferences and the publication process.
Andrew Scull
Having lots of scientists working on these problems in different sites and different places turns out to be very important, I think, as a check on enthusiasm, as a check on premature claims that turn out to be unfounded. And also because you’re often partially right, but you’re not fully right and someone else following the same idea- … is perhaps gonna be a little closer to the truth than you were. And so it’s very helpful to have multi-centered things and not everything under one all-knowing- … Thing. And that’s a problem with funding agencies. The maverick scientist has a hard time- … very often- … getting a hearing. And we know of lots of examples of that in history where after the fact we go “oh well yes, we should have supported that line of research, but we didn’t.”
Having lots of scientists working on these problems in different sites and different places turns out to be very important, I think, as a check on enthusiasm, as a check on premature claims that turn out to be unfounded. And also because you’re often partially right, but you’re not fully right and someone else following the same idea- … is perhaps gonna be a little closer to the truth than you were. And so it’s very helpful to have multi-centered things and not everything under one all-knowing- … Thing. And that’s a problem with funding agencies. The maverick scientist has a hard time- … very often- … getting a hearing. And we know of lots of examples of that in history where after the fact we go “oh well yes, we should have supported that line of research, but we didn’t.”
One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
Lex Fridman
Very well put. Let us return to the origins of ECT and how it was applied. But first, if it’s okay, a quick bathroom break. Quick ten second thank you to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to my conversation with Andrew Scull. Now we’re back just to talk a little bit more about ECT and One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest. So what can we say about that, that little cultural moment, one of the most famous moments about psychiatry? First of all, Ken Kesey wrote this book about his own experience in a mental institution.
Very well put. Let us return to the origins of ECT and how it was applied. But first, if it’s okay, a quick bathroom break. Quick ten second thank you to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to my conversation with Andrew Scull. Now we’re back just to talk a little bit more about ECT and One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest. So what can we say about that, that little cultural moment, one of the most famous moments about psychiatry? First of all, Ken Kesey wrote this book about his own experience in a mental institution.
Andrew Scull
Yeah, Menlo Park. Yes.
Yeah, Menlo Park. Yes.
Lex Fridman
How representative is it of the system at the time?
How representative is it of the system at the time?
Andrew Scull
Mental hospitals have had a very patchy and complicated history. He was working actually in a hospital for veterans. Those were largely created after the Second World War when there were very many more psychiatric casualties among American troops than even the First World War. The interesting thing is we all by osmosis know that in the First World War there was something called shell shock that afflicted the troops and that the military initially resisted recognizing and ultimately were forced to grasp. But in World War II, American psychiatric casualties among the troops were two to three times as high as in World War I, and that’s an important part of the history of psychiatry.
Mental hospitals have had a very patchy and complicated history. He was working actually in a hospital for veterans. Those were largely created after the Second World War when there were very many more psychiatric casualties among American troops than even the First World War. The interesting thing is we all by osmosis know that in the First World War there was something called shell shock that afflicted the troops and that the military initially resisted recognizing and ultimately were forced to grasp. But in World War II, American psychiatric casualties among the troops were two to three times as high as in World War I, and that’s an important part of the history of psychiatry.
Andrew Scull
But the upshot of that was that post-war the VA was heavily involved in, first of all, paying to train psychiatrists and even psychologists, and then had in its mental hospital system a considerable involvement with psychiatric disorders. Kesey– Well, the book is different than the film is the first thing to say. Obviously, the film is heavily indebted to the book, but it changes various things.
But the upshot of that was that post-war the VA was heavily involved in, first of all, paying to train psychiatrists and even psychologists, and then had in its mental hospital system a considerable involvement with psychiatric disorders. Kesey– Well, the book is different than the film is the first thing to say. Obviously, the film is heavily indebted to the book, but it changes various things.
Lex Fridman
If I may just go into Perplexity, “The book and the 1975 film tell the same basic story of McMurphy challenging an oppressive psychiatric ward, but they differ sharply in point of view, tone, and what the story is about. The novel is weirder, more political, and more about Chief Bromden’s inner world and the combine while the film is more naturalistic, character-driven, and turns McMurphy into the central hero.”
If I may just go into Perplexity, “The book and the 1975 film tell the same basic story of McMurphy challenging an oppressive psychiatric ward, but they differ sharply in point of view, tone, and what the story is about. The novel is weirder, more political, and more about Chief Bromden’s inner world and the combine while the film is more naturalistic, character-driven, and turns McMurphy into the central hero.”
Andrew Scull
Yes, I think that’s right.
Yes, I think that’s right.
Lex Fridman
McMurphy is the person that received ECT, played by Jack Nicholson.
McMurphy is the person that received ECT, played by Jack Nicholson.
Andrew Scull
Yes. And you have a nurse figure in Nurse Ratched. Louise Fletcher, I think, is an equally powerful performance.
Yes. And you have a nurse figure in Nurse Ratched. Louise Fletcher, I think, is an equally powerful performance.
Lex Fridman
It’s one of the greatest films of all time who happens to be– which is unfortunate for, you know, maybe psychiatry.
It’s one of the greatest films of all time who happens to be– which is unfortunate for, you know, maybe psychiatry.
Andrew Scull
Psychiatry, yes. It’s very interesting. I used to teach a class called Madness In The Movies and I didn’t just use… In fact, I used relatively few contemporary films, and among all the films from back then, the one almost everybody in the class had seen was One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest. So eight, nineteen, and twenty-year-olds in two thousand and fifteen– if I showed them Alfred Hitchcock’s Spellbound, no chance they’d ever seen that, maybe one because they were a class of people interested in film. But everybody had seen One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.
Psychiatry, yes. It’s very interesting. I used to teach a class called Madness In The Movies and I didn’t just use… In fact, I used relatively few contemporary films, and among all the films from back then, the one almost everybody in the class had seen was One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest. So eight, nineteen, and twenty-year-olds in two thousand and fifteen– if I showed them Alfred Hitchcock’s Spellbound, no chance they’d ever seen that, maybe one because they were a class of people interested in film. But everybody had seen One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.
Lex Fridman
On that tangent really quick, what is the greatest film on madness in your view?
On that tangent really quick, what is the greatest film on madness in your view?
Andrew Scull
Oh, well…
Oh, well…
Lex Fridman
Would that be One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest?
Would that be One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest?
Andrew Scull
I think One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, I think oddly a very different film appeared at about the same time was I Never Promised You a Rose Garden, which is a much more sympathetic portrait of a different kind of psychiatry, a very Freudian psychiatrist, really about Frieda Fromm-Reichmann who worked at Chestnut Lodge in Maryland and treated schizophrenia with psychotherapy rather than with drugs or other forms of physical intervention.
I think One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, I think oddly a very different film appeared at about the same time was I Never Promised You a Rose Garden, which is a much more sympathetic portrait of a different kind of psychiatry, a very Freudian psychiatrist, really about Frieda Fromm-Reichmann who worked at Chestnut Lodge in Maryland and treated schizophrenia with psychotherapy rather than with drugs or other forms of physical intervention.
Andrew Scull
And that was a bestselling novel by a young girl who had been her patient with some fairly serious delusions and a very complicated family background. And again the film changed a lot of things in the novel. That’s what films do. My book Madhouse at one point interested Hollywood and one of the two principals said to me, “I really like this story. It’s got a great first act and a great second act, but where’s the third act?” Meaning where’s the happy ending, and I had to say there wasn’t any happy ending to that story. It was just rather grim.
And that was a bestselling novel by a young girl who had been her patient with some fairly serious delusions and a very complicated family background. And again the film changed a lot of things in the novel. That’s what films do. My book Madhouse at one point interested Hollywood and one of the two principals said to me, “I really like this story. It’s got a great first act and a great second act, but where’s the third act?” Meaning where’s the happy ending, and I had to say there wasn’t any happy ending to that story. It was just rather grim.
Lex Fridman
Madhouse: A Tragic Tale of Megalomania and Modern Medicine is the book you’re referring to. Yes, that’s right. Now that reminds me of Flowers for Algernon. That doesn’t have a happy ending, and it’s not about mental health necessarily, but it’s about the journey of an institution in relation to the health of a patient.
Madhouse: A Tragic Tale of Megalomania and Modern Medicine is the book you’re referring to. Yes, that’s right. Now that reminds me of Flowers for Algernon. That doesn’t have a happy ending, and it’s not about mental health necessarily, but it’s about the journey of an institution in relation to the health of a patient.
Andrew Scull
Yes, Pat Barker’s trilogy of novels about World War I was turned into a film, I think it was called Regeneration and that was quite powerful. It was about World War I and the treatment of shell shock. And I thought was quite well done. And my friend Patrick McGrath, who’s a novelist wrote a book called Asylum. Patrick grew up in the grounds of Broadmoor. Broadmoor is England’s premier hospital for the criminally insane and he was babysat by some of the patients. And when you read his novels you can see how that upbringing affected his rather macabre imagination.
Yes, Pat Barker’s trilogy of novels about World War I was turned into a film, I think it was called Regeneration and that was quite powerful. It was about World War I and the treatment of shell shock. And I thought was quite well done. And my friend Patrick McGrath, who’s a novelist wrote a book called Asylum. Patrick grew up in the grounds of Broadmoor. Broadmoor is England’s premier hospital for the criminally insane and he was babysat by some of the patients. And when you read his novels you can see how that upbringing affected his rather macabre imagination.
Andrew Scull
But anyway, so One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, the poverty of the environment room that the patients were in I think fairly successfully recreates that way in which staff very often put patients down, didn’t listen to them or poke fun at them or even were physically abusive although you don’t see that. Those were all features of mental hospitals. The general boredom of life sort of there, but yeah hard to– putting boredom on the screen will turn an audience off rather fast.
But anyway, so One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, the poverty of the environment room that the patients were in I think fairly successfully recreates that way in which staff very often put patients down, didn’t listen to them or poke fun at them or even were physically abusive although you don’t see that. Those were all features of mental hospitals. The general boredom of life sort of there, but yeah hard to– putting boredom on the screen will turn an audience off rather fast.
Lex Fridman
What about nurses and this kind of abusive element, you know?
What about nurses and this kind of abusive element, you know?
Andrew Scull
Yeah, I think there was an abusive element in a lot of mental hospitals and it was almost inevitable. Look at who had the most contact with the patients: it was the lowest paid, least respected ward attendants, very few even RNs. And you know, ratio of doctor to patient in the large state mental hospitals meant that patients hardly ever saw a physician, you know. Remarkable about the film, there are many remarkable things about the film as well as its polemical edge, I think, is that chief psychiatrist that you see in the film is the real head of Oregon State Mental Hospital. He really was, introduction to acting, and I thought he was pretty remarkable actually. Obviously there’s a lot of exaggeration there, but ECT was used in the fifties and sixties as a tool of discipline in the hospitals.
Yeah, I think there was an abusive element in a lot of mental hospitals and it was almost inevitable. Look at who had the most contact with the patients: it was the lowest paid, least respected ward attendants, very few even RNs. And you know, ratio of doctor to patient in the large state mental hospitals meant that patients hardly ever saw a physician, you know. Remarkable about the film, there are many remarkable things about the film as well as its polemical edge, I think, is that chief psychiatrist that you see in the film is the real head of Oregon State Mental Hospital. He really was, introduction to acting, and I thought he was pretty remarkable actually. Obviously there’s a lot of exaggeration there, but ECT was used in the fifties and sixties as a tool of discipline in the hospitals.
Andrew Scull
It was also used therapeutically, but overwhelmingly it was used as a tool of discipline and control. And that’s true to life. Lobotomy… One of the interesting things we haven’t talked about with all these treatments we’ve been discussing is that almost invariably, except for the case of the syphilitic patients, for obvious reasons men were more troubled by that condition than women, it was women that got the brunt of these experiments. So Henry Cotton, about 70% of his patients who were treated were female. Lobotomy patients, it’s hard to get overall numbers, but those of us who’ve looked at the records of a number of different hospitals again and again discover, again, 60 or 70% of the patients are female. ECT tends to be heavily female.
It was also used therapeutically, but overwhelmingly it was used as a tool of discipline and control. And that’s true to life. Lobotomy… One of the interesting things we haven’t talked about with all these treatments we’ve been discussing is that almost invariably, except for the case of the syphilitic patients, for obvious reasons men were more troubled by that condition than women, it was women that got the brunt of these experiments. So Henry Cotton, about 70% of his patients who were treated were female. Lobotomy patients, it’s hard to get overall numbers, but those of us who’ve looked at the records of a number of different hospitals again and again discover, again, 60 or 70% of the patients are female. ECT tends to be heavily female.
Andrew Scull
That’s complicated by the fact that it’s used primarily as, as we were discussing in serious cases of depression and so-called treatment-resistant depression, and depression is a diagnosis that is more to be found among women than men. Not that there aren’t very many men with depression, but again, the ratio is such. Men tend to get a different– they get different diagnoses. Personality disorders, for example, are very, very common and are more a male diagnosis. Um, ADHD-
That’s complicated by the fact that it’s used primarily as, as we were discussing in serious cases of depression and so-called treatment-resistant depression, and depression is a diagnosis that is more to be found among women than men. Not that there aren’t very many men with depression, but again, the ratio is such. Men tend to get a different– they get different diagnoses. Personality disorders, for example, are very, very common and are more a male diagnosis. Um, ADHD-
Lex Fridman
Mm
Mm
Andrew Scull
…is more male than female and so on. So it’s good to point that out. Uh, I think it helped end interest in ECT, except for a small handful of enthusiasts for decades, that film. And probably even now it creates hesitation in people about the treatment. So it’s one that has had a very powerful and long-lasting effect, I think.
…is more male than female and so on. So it’s good to point that out. Uh, I think it helped end interest in ECT, except for a small handful of enthusiasts for decades, that film. And probably even now it creates hesitation in people about the treatment. So it’s one that has had a very powerful and long-lasting effect, I think.
Lex Fridman
I think the surprising thing is I recently learned a friend of mine tried everything, about 20 years ago, tried everything with depression, and ECT is the last thing he tried, and it changed his life- …for the better.
I think the surprising thing is I recently learned a friend of mine tried everything, about 20 years ago, tried everything with depression, and ECT is the last thing he tried, and it changed his life- …for the better.
Andrew Scull
That’s not an uncommon story. Yeah.
That’s not an uncommon story. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And then I looked online and there’s a lot of stories like this. And I– before learning of that, my, I’m embarrassed to say, knowledge of ECT was just “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.”
And then I looked online and there’s a lot of stories like this. And I– before learning of that, my, I’m embarrassed to say, knowledge of ECT was just “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.”
Andrew Scull
It– You know, it has a terrible history- …in the, in the ’40s, ’50s and ’60s. There are lots of-
It– You know, it has a terrible history- …in the, in the ’40s, ’50s and ’60s. There are lots of-
Lex Fridman
Abuses
Abuses
Andrew Scull
The CIA funded Ewen Cameron up in Canada, and he was giving multiple ECTs a day and reducing peoples to… Well, they couldn’t walk, they couldn’t talk, they couldn’t feed themselves, they were incontinent, and then he built them back up, or so he claimed, but in many cases, they were left permanently damaged. So I could recite lots of real horror stories about ECT, but it’s also, if you’re honest about the thing, what you just described, that is patients who were on the brink of suicide, who had long-running depressions, some of them had ECT and they describe it as lifesaving. And as I say when more controlled trials have been done recently, there’s enough evidence now that it’s hard to say, “This never works.
The CIA funded Ewen Cameron up in Canada, and he was giving multiple ECTs a day and reducing peoples to… Well, they couldn’t walk, they couldn’t talk, they couldn’t feed themselves, they were incontinent, and then he built them back up, or so he claimed, but in many cases, they were left permanently damaged. So I could recite lots of real horror stories about ECT, but it’s also, if you’re honest about the thing, what you just described, that is patients who were on the brink of suicide, who had long-running depressions, some of them had ECT and they describe it as lifesaving. And as I say when more controlled trials have been done recently, there’s enough evidence now that it’s hard to say, “This never works.
Andrew Scull
This is just one of these desperate remedies we should consign to dark ages.” The complicating thing is we’d have no clue why it works. It’s a purely empirical treatment.
This is just one of these desperate remedies we should consign to dark ages.” The complicating thing is we’d have no clue why it works. It’s a purely empirical treatment.
Lex Fridman
Right. Right.
Right. Right.
Andrew Scull
And that itself I think tends to put people off. If you have a curable form of cancer and the surgeon says, “Well, I’m gonna remove it,” and she does, that’s that. But because we understand even a little bit, even if our knowledge of human biology is pretty primitive, we do understand a little bit that cancer is cells dividing uncontrollably and taking up and doing damage to the body and eventually killing you, and the fact that we can surgically remove it is a big deal. There are lots of disorders. I have high blood pressure. If untreated, my blood pressure is like a 20-year-old’s thanks to treatment. It’s an ongoing thing. I take the damn pill every day and it has a few minor side effects, but for me very minor ones.
And that itself I think tends to put people off. If you have a curable form of cancer and the surgeon says, “Well, I’m gonna remove it,” and she does, that’s that. But because we understand even a little bit, even if our knowledge of human biology is pretty primitive, we do understand a little bit that cancer is cells dividing uncontrollably and taking up and doing damage to the body and eventually killing you, and the fact that we can surgically remove it is a big deal. There are lots of disorders. I have high blood pressure. If untreated, my blood pressure is like a 20-year-old’s thanks to treatment. It’s an ongoing thing. I take the damn pill every day and it has a few minor side effects, but for me very minor ones.
Andrew Scull
And it turns what could have killed me via a stroke or a heart attack into a condition that’s very well controlled. So, you know, all of these things, they’re a complicated picture. It’s easy with some of these things, with lobotomy, with insulin comas, deep sleep treatments, Henry Cotton’s endeavors. Those you can just say, “Well, we’ll throw them away.” And for a long time, I think ECT would have formed part of that cast of characters. So when I first conceived the idea of writing Desperate Remedies, the book, it was back in 1981 and I was in London on a Guggenheim Fellowship at the Wellcome Institute.
And it turns what could have killed me via a stroke or a heart attack into a condition that’s very well controlled. So, you know, all of these things, they’re a complicated picture. It’s easy with some of these things, with lobotomy, with insulin comas, deep sleep treatments, Henry Cotton’s endeavors. Those you can just say, “Well, we’ll throw them away.” And for a long time, I think ECT would have formed part of that cast of characters. So when I first conceived the idea of writing Desperate Remedies, the book, it was back in 1981 and I was in London on a Guggenheim Fellowship at the Wellcome Institute.
Andrew Scull
And I hadn’t done research in detail, but I was aware there were all these things lurking about that had happened in the 1920s and ’30s and I thought that would be a very interesting thing to study. And luckily I didn’t do it right away or I did it piecemeal over the years and I ended up writing a much more comprehensive look at psychiatry really from its origins to now. And I couldn’t have written that book back then, and I would’ve missed all the developments from 1980 onwards, which are very, very important to the overall picture.
And I hadn’t done research in detail, but I was aware there were all these things lurking about that had happened in the 1920s and ’30s and I thought that would be a very interesting thing to study. And luckily I didn’t do it right away or I did it piecemeal over the years and I ended up writing a much more comprehensive look at psychiatry really from its origins to now. And I couldn’t have written that book back then, and I would’ve missed all the developments from 1980 onwards, which are very, very important to the overall picture.
Lex Fridman
So forty years later, 2022.
So forty years later, 2022.
Andrew Scull
Yes. Yes, exactly.
Yes. Yes, exactly.
Lex Fridman
Your own Desperate Remedies: Psychiatry’s- … Turmoil in Quest to Cure Mental Illness.
Your own Desperate Remedies: Psychiatry’s- … Turmoil in Quest to Cure Mental Illness.
Andrew Scull
I’ve written a lot of books and along the way– part of the way, I think I’ve been productive and kept interested. I always had two… at least two projects on the go at once. You can’t simultaneously write two things, but I’d have one and I’d work on it, and if I got tired of it, I’d pick up the other one for a bit and then go back. And it also meant when I was working on one main project, I had other things percolating in my head, and I would come across things that were relevant to them and I’d make a note and then I’d go back. So when I finally did Desperate Remedies, I’d been thinking about those issues for forty years, and that made a big difference, I think, to the way I approached things and to what I thought. ‘Cause you just…
I’ve written a lot of books and along the way– part of the way, I think I’ve been productive and kept interested. I always had two… at least two projects on the go at once. You can’t simultaneously write two things, but I’d have one and I’d work on it, and if I got tired of it, I’d pick up the other one for a bit and then go back. And it also meant when I was working on one main project, I had other things percolating in my head, and I would come across things that were relevant to them and I’d make a note and then I’d go back. So when I finally did Desperate Remedies, I’d been thinking about those issues for forty years, and that made a big difference, I think, to the way I approached things and to what I thought. ‘Cause you just…
Andrew Scull
You either like Thomas says, you say the same thing over and over and over again for forty years or you learn new things and you broaden what you know, and you think about things in a different way because you realize you haven’t grasped the full complexity of what you’re looking at. And so look, what I found with psychiatry is there are really a couple of fundamental things that have kept me engaged with the field. One, it’s an arena where there’s tremendous human suffering, and it spreads out and it’s as far as I know — and I wrote a big book called Madness in Civilization about from the ancient Greeks and ancient China to now — in every society I’ve studied they have to cope with this. It takes different forms. It’s regarded in different ways.
You either like Thomas says, you say the same thing over and over and over again for forty years or you learn new things and you broaden what you know, and you think about things in a different way because you realize you haven’t grasped the full complexity of what you’re looking at. And so look, what I found with psychiatry is there are really a couple of fundamental things that have kept me engaged with the field. One, it’s an arena where there’s tremendous human suffering, and it spreads out and it’s as far as I know — and I wrote a big book called Madness in Civilization about from the ancient Greeks and ancient China to now — in every society I’ve studied they have to cope with this. It takes different forms. It’s regarded in different ways.
Andrew Scull
It’s treated differently, but that there are people that deviate so far from the norm of what we regard as culturally appropriate, they exist everywhere. So the suffering, the difficulty of studying it, and then the fact that it is such a complex and difficult subject to understand. The very fact that we have such limits to our knowledge means there’s space there to examine things in a, in a very– in what needs to be a very complicated way. And so it’s, it’s intellectual puzzles attracted some very, very smart people, but there’s a long way to go.
It’s treated differently, but that there are people that deviate so far from the norm of what we regard as culturally appropriate, they exist everywhere. So the suffering, the difficulty of studying it, and then the fact that it is such a complex and difficult subject to understand. The very fact that we have such limits to our knowledge means there’s space there to examine things in a, in a very– in what needs to be a very complicated way. And so it’s, it’s intellectual puzzles attracted some very, very smart people, but there’s a long way to go.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, we have glimmers of insights about how the mind works but- ….if you look at the span of human history, we’re probably in the very early days of understanding this particular one.
Yeah, we have glimmers of insights about how the mind works but- ….if you look at the span of human history, we’re probably in the very early days of understanding this particular one.
Freud and Psychoanalysis
Lex Fridman
I have to, if it’s okay-
I have to, if it’s okay-
Andrew Scull
Yes, of course.
Yes, of course.
Lex Fridman
…so that we– we’ve been carrying multiple threads together. One of the threads that I think is really exciting to me and really important to the history of psychiatry is the psychotherapy side. We have mentioned the psychopharmacology that will also– it would be nice to discuss when the two clash and there’s a revolution where psychopharmacology kinda wins over psychoanalysis for a time. But let us start at, at the somewhat beginning, in the nineteenth century when talk therapy starts coming to life maybe in the religious context with Christian Science and then psychoanalysis context.
…so that we– we’ve been carrying multiple threads together. One of the threads that I think is really exciting to me and really important to the history of psychiatry is the psychotherapy side. We have mentioned the psychopharmacology that will also– it would be nice to discuss when the two clash and there’s a revolution where psychopharmacology kinda wins over psychoanalysis for a time. But let us start at, at the somewhat beginning, in the nineteenth century when talk therapy starts coming to life maybe in the religious context with Christian Science and then psychoanalysis context.
Andrew Scull
Yes. So I’d mentioned late nineteenth century psychiatry, confined as it was to the mental hospital and to people incarcerated in those places, had become very biological. But there were people experiencing mental troubles of various kinds, sadness, confusion, loss of social relationships that were troubling them, grief, all sorts of things like that, that didn’t involve time in a mental hospital but nonetheless involved a good deal of distress as they continued to do. And one of the things that was interesting about nineteenth century America is it spawned a number of new religions, sort of variants of Christianity.
Yes. So I’d mentioned late nineteenth century psychiatry, confined as it was to the mental hospital and to people incarcerated in those places, had become very biological. But there were people experiencing mental troubles of various kinds, sadness, confusion, loss of social relationships that were troubling them, grief, all sorts of things like that, that didn’t involve time in a mental hospital but nonetheless involved a good deal of distress as they continued to do. And one of the things that was interesting about nineteenth century America is it spawned a number of new religions, sort of variants of Christianity.
Andrew Scull
So you had Seventh-day Adventists, a group that still exists, who actually spawned a sanitarium for their depressed congregants that was later taken over by two prominent members of the Adventist Church, the Kellogg family, everybody knows them through cereal. But they ran a huge sanitarium to which Abraham Lincoln’s widow went, Tarzan went, Henry Ford went, lots of very prominent industrialists and politicians and, you know, it was kind of a farm to go and recover your mental stability and health, and it was all bound up also with beliefs about diet and defecation and all sorts of things. There were the Mormons, or Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, many Christians don’t believe they’re really Christian, but they think they are and call themselves such.
So you had Seventh-day Adventists, a group that still exists, who actually spawned a sanitarium for their depressed congregants that was later taken over by two prominent members of the Adventist Church, the Kellogg family, everybody knows them through cereal. But they ran a huge sanitarium to which Abraham Lincoln’s widow went, Tarzan went, Henry Ford went, lots of very prominent industrialists and politicians and, you know, it was kind of a farm to go and recover your mental stability and health, and it was all bound up also with beliefs about diet and defecation and all sorts of things. There were the Mormons, or Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, many Christians don’t believe they’re really Christian, but they think they are and call themselves such.
Andrew Scull
So you have a number of these, and one of them was Christian Science, which was the invention of a woman named Mary Baker Eddy. Developed the idea–and there are still Christian Science churches and Christian Science reading rooms all across America–that there wasn’t such a thing as disease, that it could be prayed away, that it was just a lack of sufficient faith. So faith healing tended to work, I think, better if it worked at all for psychiatric problems than it did if you had, say, cancer. But Christian Science achieved a considerable number of followers, disproportionately women, but not only women. And it began to treat many of the people suffering from what we would think of as the milder mental disorders, and it attracted both adherents and severe critics.
So you have a number of these, and one of them was Christian Science, which was the invention of a woman named Mary Baker Eddy. Developed the idea–and there are still Christian Science churches and Christian Science reading rooms all across America–that there wasn’t such a thing as disease, that it could be prayed away, that it was just a lack of sufficient faith. So faith healing tended to work, I think, better if it worked at all for psychiatric problems than it did if you had, say, cancer. But Christian Science achieved a considerable number of followers, disproportionately women, but not only women. And it began to treat many of the people suffering from what we would think of as the milder mental disorders, and it attracted both adherents and severe critics.
Andrew Scull
Mark Twain, for example, was thoroughly dismissive of Mary Baker Eddy. But it was very successful for a time. There were other religiously based attempts to join in, the most important of which in New England was something called Emmanuel Movement, centered around the Church of the Emmanuel in Boston, which was an attempt actually initially to bring medical and religious approaches to helping the mentally troubled. Rather quickly, the doctors involved decided this was veering too much in the direction of medically-based therapeutics; they kind of withdrew from enterprise. It dispensed– there were talk therapies obviously with a strong religious component around them. This was also at a time when some…
Mark Twain, for example, was thoroughly dismissive of Mary Baker Eddy. But it was very successful for a time. There were other religiously based attempts to join in, the most important of which in New England was something called Emmanuel Movement, centered around the Church of the Emmanuel in Boston, which was an attempt actually initially to bring medical and religious approaches to helping the mentally troubled. Rather quickly, the doctors involved decided this was veering too much in the direction of medically-based therapeutics; they kind of withdrew from enterprise. It dispensed– there were talk therapies obviously with a strong religious component around them. This was also at a time when some…
Andrew Scull
guess we can call them psychiatrists they were often neurologists were beginning to get lots of patients with these kinds of difficult to treat disorders. Neurology had emerged in America after the Civil War. Civil War provided a lot of naturalistic experiments on what happens to the human brain and the human nervous system when trauma affect – I don’t mean psychological trauma I mean bullets blowing holes in your brain. A group of new specialists emerged after the Civil War who claims expertise in the brain and the nervous system. Well one of the other side parts of that is insanity because insanity is also seen as a brain disease so there is a conflict that erupts in the 1870s and ’80s between neurologists and psychiatrists. But the neurologist can’t for the most part get into the asylum
guess we can call them psychiatrists they were often neurologists were beginning to get lots of patients with these kinds of difficult to treat disorders. Neurology had emerged in America after the Civil War. Civil War provided a lot of naturalistic experiments on what happens to the human brain and the human nervous system when trauma affect – I don’t mean psychological trauma I mean bullets blowing holes in your brain. A group of new specialists emerged after the Civil War who claims expertise in the brain and the nervous system. Well one of the other side parts of that is insanity because insanity is also seen as a brain disease so there is a conflict that erupts in the 1870s and ’80s between neurologists and psychiatrists. But the neurologist can’t for the most part get into the asylum
Andrew Scull
where the most seriously ill patients are. Gradually what comes to their waiting room, along with people like multiple sclero– suffering from things like multiple sclerosis, are people with functional mental disorders. There’s the beginning of an outpatient practice which initially involves some drugs, the use of electricity–not ECT, but the use, for example, of static electricity because it produces obvious physiological responses. Electricity is seen as dominating the workings of the body. Sometimes tonics of one sort or another. Most notoriously of all, something called the rest cure. Silas Weir Mitchell, one of the leading lights of American neurology, develops complete bedrest, lots of calories, lots of food, complete lack of intellectual stimulation. Supposedly this is going to cure you, mainly
where the most seriously ill patients are. Gradually what comes to their waiting room, along with people like multiple sclero– suffering from things like multiple sclerosis, are people with functional mental disorders. There’s the beginning of an outpatient practice which initially involves some drugs, the use of electricity–not ECT, but the use, for example, of static electricity because it produces obvious physiological responses. Electricity is seen as dominating the workings of the body. Sometimes tonics of one sort or another. Most notoriously of all, something called the rest cure. Silas Weir Mitchell, one of the leading lights of American neurology, develops complete bedrest, lots of calories, lots of food, complete lack of intellectual stimulation. Supposedly this is going to cure you, mainly
Andrew Scull
aimed at women. I feel like that’s another evidence backed technique that works well. Well, you know, I’ve partaken in this and I know it has helped me. Laying in bed doing nothing, eating snacks. Virginia Woolf was one of the people subjected to this. She claimed it practically drove her mad or made her worse, you know? Just to clarify, we’re talking about laying in bed eating snacks, eating lots of snacks, very high calorie. Okay. Weir Mitchell wrote two popular bestsellers, self-help books suppose you’d call them in the modern genre. One was called Wear and Tear. The pace of modern life, the telegraph, the railway was all too much. Your nervous system was overstressed. Either your batteries ran down, that was one analogy, or you overtaxed your system and went bankrupt. Wear and tear, that was the problem. The
aimed at women. I feel like that’s another evidence backed technique that works well. Well, you know, I’ve partaken in this and I know it has helped me. Laying in bed doing nothing, eating snacks. Virginia Woolf was one of the people subjected to this. She claimed it practically drove her mad or made her worse, you know? Just to clarify, we’re talking about laying in bed eating snacks, eating lots of snacks, very high calorie. Okay. Weir Mitchell wrote two popular bestsellers, self-help books suppose you’d call them in the modern genre. One was called Wear and Tear. The pace of modern life, the telegraph, the railway was all too much. Your nervous system was overstressed. Either your batteries ran down, that was one analogy, or you overtaxed your system and went bankrupt. Wear and tear, that was the problem. The
Andrew Scull
solution was Fat and Blood. That was the title of the other book. You got scrawny, nouveau, nervous, twitchy, and what you really needed was to build back up your strength, including your nervous strength. Isn’t it fascinating to look at that 120 years plus ago? They’re talking about how anxiety inducing society is, how much is going on, and we in the modern day talk in exact same way about social media, the internet, all that kind of stuff. Yeah, yeah, it is. We look back on the nineteenth century and think of it in idyllic terms of a much slower pace of life, and people, they thought it was stressful in exactly the ways we do. There was a class of potential patients. Some of them were seeking help in the neurologists and a few psychiatrists who moved out of the asylum. But there were also these mental healing groups that were religious, and they’re all around at the beginning of the 20th century.
solution was Fat and Blood. That was the title of the other book. You got scrawny, nouveau, nervous, twitchy, and what you really needed was to build back up your strength, including your nervous strength. Isn’t it fascinating to look at that 120 years plus ago? They’re talking about how anxiety inducing society is, how much is going on, and we in the modern day talk in exact same way about social media, the internet, all that kind of stuff. Yeah, yeah, it is. We look back on the nineteenth century and think of it in idyllic terms of a much slower pace of life, and people, they thought it was stressful in exactly the ways we do. There was a class of potential patients. Some of them were seeking help in the neurologists and a few psychiatrists who moved out of the asylum. But there were also these mental healing groups that were religious, and they’re all around at the beginning of the 20th century.
Andrew Scull
And in 1909, a Viennese gentleman and two of his close colleagues travel across the Atlantic on a German steamer and arrive in New York and then transport themselves up to Worcester, Massachusetts, where Clark University is celebrating its 20th anniversary. Clark University was then set up– It still exists, but it was set up to copy the German research university. The only comparable example at the time was Johns Hopkins in Baltimore, and Hopkins developed the leading medical school of the time borrowing from that German concept of mixing research and teaching and patient care.
And in 1909, a Viennese gentleman and two of his close colleagues travel across the Atlantic on a German steamer and arrive in New York and then transport themselves up to Worcester, Massachusetts, where Clark University is celebrating its 20th anniversary. Clark University was then set up– It still exists, but it was set up to copy the German research university. The only comparable example at the time was Johns Hopkins in Baltimore, and Hopkins developed the leading medical school of the time borrowing from that German concept of mixing research and teaching and patient care.
Lex Fridman
I like how you’re telling this in a cinematic way the story of Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung-
I like how you’re telling this in a cinematic way the story of Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung-
Lex Fridman
… go coming to America to give a lecture. I like, I like how it’s like the movie opens and there yeah Yeah Well here he is You know Like How do you feel who he is? He’s fairly obscure We should say the reason you’re actually telling it that way is America has been a really defining place for psychiatry Yes And then Freud had his own views on America and so on But this this was In terms of the history yes psychiatric medicine america as central Right Many of the in house histories of Psychiatry portray this as Freud conference Mm-hmm But it wasn’t Freud Was almost an afterthought Of the Conference The head of Clark Was a psychologist And he was interested in Freud But Actually There were about thirty speakers At the Clark conference Two Nobel Prize Winners in physics Franz Boas
… go coming to America to give a lecture. I like, I like how it’s like the movie opens and there yeah Yeah Well here he is You know Like How do you feel who he is? He’s fairly obscure We should say the reason you’re actually telling it that way is America has been a really defining place for psychiatry Yes And then Freud had his own views on America and so on But this this was In terms of the history yes psychiatric medicine america as central Right Many of the in house histories of Psychiatry portray this as Freud conference Mm-hmm But it wasn’t Freud Was almost an afterthought Of the Conference The head of Clark Was a psychologist And he was interested in Freud But Actually There were about thirty speakers At the Clark conference Two Nobel Prize Winners in physics Franz Boas
Lex Fridman
Who was the leading anthropologist Of his generation And A host of other scholars Including a couple of Freuds Fierce critics One of whom Stern Was On the same boat As him And They avoided one another Like the plague But anyway Its important To see That And Freud It’s a mark of how Important german science And German Medical Science Was In the late nineteenth Early Twentieth Century Where it was THE most advanced In the world That Freud Delivered His lectures IN GERMAN AND THE AUDIENCE THAT WASNT A PROBLEM FOR THE AUDIENCE CAUSE THEYD ALL LEARNED GERMAN SO THEY COULD READ GERMAN LITERATURE ON MEDICINE So Quite An Extraordinary Thing UM William James Attends One OF FREUDS LECTURES AND HAS A CONVERSATION WITH HIM WILLIAM JAMES IS ONE OF THE PEOPLE THINKING ABOUT THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE HUMAN
Who was the leading anthropologist Of his generation And A host of other scholars Including a couple of Freuds Fierce critics One of whom Stern Was On the same boat As him And They avoided one another Like the plague But anyway Its important To see That And Freud It’s a mark of how Important german science And German Medical Science Was In the late nineteenth Early Twentieth Century Where it was THE most advanced In the world That Freud Delivered His lectures IN GERMAN AND THE AUDIENCE THAT WASNT A PROBLEM FOR THE AUDIENCE CAUSE THEYD ALL LEARNED GERMAN SO THEY COULD READ GERMAN LITERATURE ON MEDICINE So Quite An Extraordinary Thing UM William James Attends One OF FREUDS LECTURES AND HAS A CONVERSATION WITH HIM WILLIAM JAMES IS ONE OF THE PEOPLE THINKING ABOUT THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE HUMAN
Lex Fridman
MIND IN INTERESTING WAYS HES NOT IMPRESSED BY FREUD AND HE ALSO HAS A BAD HEART CONDITION HE DIES NOT All that long afterwards BUT HES NOT Impressed By Freud A handful of people are Some of the neurologists And Freuds Lectures Explicitly Attack Religiously Based Psychotherapy Says psychotherapy Is like a surgical operation on the mind And Only Us Doctors Or ONLY US THOROUGHLY TRAINED People Cause ACTually He doesnt Believe That Psychoanalysis Is Only Something That Can Be Practiced by Medically Qualified But The Lecture Is On psychoanalysis YES ITS FIVE LECTURES THEYRE PUBLISHED SUBSEQUENTLY AND HE MAKES A VERY IMPORTANT Convert THERE UM James Jackson Putnam Is A Boston Brahmin One of the Upper Class Bostonians With Whos Extremely well connected and is professor of Neurology AT Harvard
MIND IN INTERESTING WAYS HES NOT IMPRESSED BY FREUD AND HE ALSO HAS A BAD HEART CONDITION HE DIES NOT All that long afterwards BUT HES NOT Impressed By Freud A handful of people are Some of the neurologists And Freuds Lectures Explicitly Attack Religiously Based Psychotherapy Says psychotherapy Is like a surgical operation on the mind And Only Us Doctors Or ONLY US THOROUGHLY TRAINED People Cause ACTually He doesnt Believe That Psychoanalysis Is Only Something That Can Be Practiced by Medically Qualified But The Lecture Is On psychoanalysis YES ITS FIVE LECTURES THEYRE PUBLISHED SUBSEQUENTLY AND HE MAKES A VERY IMPORTANT Convert THERE UM James Jackson Putnam Is A Boston Brahmin One of the Upper Class Bostonians With Whos Extremely well connected and is professor of Neurology AT Harvard
Lex Fridman
And he becomes A Freudian At that conference So Mainstream American Psychiatry Pays Very little attention TO To Freuds Arrival on the scene And When he BECOMes A bit more visible They tend to be very dismissive They uh They regard the idea of talk therapy For something They regard as a biological condition AS A ridiculous Idea Maybe Just Uh Mention A Few Things SIGMUND FREUD Of course Is widely acknowledged to be the father of psychoanalysis And UH He Has a bunch of ideas One of which is theres This unconscious Mind That is the source of many of our Uh Behaviors Exactly And Then Psychoanalysis Is a Way to delve deep into that mind And the tools he used to Do that is talking Yes Freud was trained as a neurologist himself Uh And studied under the most famous Late Nineteenthcentury Neurologist
And he becomes A Freudian At that conference So Mainstream American Psychiatry Pays Very little attention TO To Freuds Arrival on the scene And When he BECOMes A bit more visible They tend to be very dismissive They uh They regard the idea of talk therapy For something They regard as a biological condition AS A ridiculous Idea Maybe Just Uh Mention A Few Things SIGMUND FREUD Of course Is widely acknowledged to be the father of psychoanalysis And UH He Has a bunch of ideas One of which is theres This unconscious Mind That is the source of many of our Uh Behaviors Exactly And Then Psychoanalysis Is a Way to delve deep into that mind And the tools he used to Do that is talking Yes Freud was trained as a neurologist himself Uh And studied under the most famous Late Nineteenthcentury Neurologist
Lex Fridman
Charcot in Paris and translated Charcot into German and endeared himself to Charcot by doing that. That’s, um, a clever way to help your career along. But his Viennese colleagues didn’t think much of Charcot. And they didn’t think much of Freud’s ideas either, so he had a bit of a hard time. But he did develop a successful practice in the sense that patients came to him. He was accompanied by two of his close disciples to the Clark Conference. One of them, Carl Jung, was then anointed the Crown Prince. He was supposed to inherit Freud’s enterprise until the men had a very serious falling out. Mm-hmm. Uh, just a little bit later in nineteen thirteen. And Freud and Jung went their separate ways. That’s a complicated story. Freud, as one of his close, uh, friends and collaborators put it, was a great hater if you fell
Charcot in Paris and translated Charcot into German and endeared himself to Charcot by doing that. That’s, um, a clever way to help your career along. But his Viennese colleagues didn’t think much of Charcot. And they didn’t think much of Freud’s ideas either, so he had a bit of a hard time. But he did develop a successful practice in the sense that patients came to him. He was accompanied by two of his close disciples to the Clark Conference. One of them, Carl Jung, was then anointed the Crown Prince. He was supposed to inherit Freud’s enterprise until the men had a very serious falling out. Mm-hmm. Uh, just a little bit later in nineteen thirteen. And Freud and Jung went their separate ways. That’s a complicated story. Freud, as one of his close, uh, friends and collaborators put it, was a great hater if you fell
Lex Fridman
out with Freud. It was bad news. Oh yeah, yeah. You were excommunicated if it was Adler, but Jung especially.
out with Freud. It was bad news. Oh yeah, yeah. You were excommunicated if it was Adler, but Jung especially.
Andrew Scull
Jung was Swiss and he worked in the major mental hospital in Zurich, and he was attracted to psychoanalysis and to Freud. And for the first few years there, there was this obvious close alliance. Anyway, so Jung was a, the person who actually persuaded Freud to go to America. Freud initially– Freud had very low opinion of America. He said it should be renamed Dollaría because it was only interested in the dollar. And American women were far too pushy and powerful, and American food was dreadful and it poisoned him, and on and on. Um-
Jung was Swiss and he worked in the major mental hospital in Zurich, and he was attracted to psychoanalysis and to Freud. And for the first few years there, there was this obvious close alliance. Anyway, so Jung was a, the person who actually persuaded Freud to go to America. Freud initially– Freud had very low opinion of America. He said it should be renamed Dollaría because it was only interested in the dollar. And American women were far too pushy and powerful, and American food was dreadful and it poisoned him, and on and on. Um-
Lex Fridman
So as you said, Freud was a master hater.
So as you said, Freud was a master hater.
Andrew Scull
Yeah, he was. And one of the things he hated was America, even though America brought him some fairly rich patients. But- … the richest patients of all went to Jung, not to Freud. And I think that probably exacerbated this split.
Yeah, he was. And one of the things he hated was America, even though America brought him some fairly rich patients. But- … the richest patients of all went to Jung, not to Freud. And I think that probably exacerbated this split.
Lex Fridman
Let’s actually focus first before the conference on the actual ideas of psychoanalysis. So Freud was the originator of psychoanalysis. This is 19th century. So tell me about the original case of Anna O. and like what is psychoanalysis?
Let’s actually focus first before the conference on the actual ideas of psychoanalysis. So Freud was the originator of psychoanalysis. This is 19th century. So tell me about the original case of Anna O. and like what is psychoanalysis?
Andrew Scull
Yeah. So Freud’s academic career had been failing in Vienna, and he faced a prospect of either having to emigrate to America, which he regarded with horror in the 1880s, or perhaps reviving his career by going and studying under the most famous neurologist of the era, Jean-Martin Charcot, who was then delivering lectures on hysteria in Paris. And so Freud went and spent some months there and came back imbued with Charcot’s ideas about hysteria and found a Viennese medical establishment. He started a consulting career and that involved– He had a close friend named Josef Breuer. And Breuer was more senior, had a very large practice, and referred patients to Freud. And the two of them began to be interested in this problem of hysteria.
Yeah. So Freud’s academic career had been failing in Vienna, and he faced a prospect of either having to emigrate to America, which he regarded with horror in the 1880s, or perhaps reviving his career by going and studying under the most famous neurologist of the era, Jean-Martin Charcot, who was then delivering lectures on hysteria in Paris. And so Freud went and spent some months there and came back imbued with Charcot’s ideas about hysteria and found a Viennese medical establishment. He started a consulting career and that involved– He had a close friend named Josef Breuer. And Breuer was more senior, had a very large practice, and referred patients to Freud. And the two of them began to be interested in this problem of hysteria.
Andrew Scull
Breuer had treated a woman who’s now known as the sort of foundation patient for– the Ur patient for psychoanalysis, who was known to us as Anna O. She– We actually know she was Bertha von Pappenheim but that was hidden for a long time. There– A lot of these patients had pseudonyms because obviously the cases exposed a lot about their inner psychology and quite reasonably, even without the modern concerns about privacy, there was a reluctance to identify them.
Breuer had treated a woman who’s now known as the sort of foundation patient for– the Ur patient for psychoanalysis, who was known to us as Anna O. She– We actually know she was Bertha von Pappenheim but that was hidden for a long time. There– A lot of these patients had pseudonyms because obviously the cases exposed a lot about their inner psychology and quite reasonably, even without the modern concerns about privacy, there was a reluctance to identify them.
Andrew Scull
So Anna O. had nursed her father. She was Breuer’s patient, not Freud’s. She’d nursed her father through an illness, and he’d ended up dying, and she developed various physical symptoms that troubled her a great deal and was also somewhat depressed. And Breuer and Freud dealt with that by developing a notion that what she was suffering from was repressed memories and trauma. And this would become central to psychoanalysis, the idea of half-muttered memories lurking in your subconscious that emerged in distorted forms of psychological symptoms and ways of being in the world that were disruptive. Freud, of course, develops a much more elaborate theory of this in years to come.
So Anna O. had nursed her father. She was Breuer’s patient, not Freud’s. She’d nursed her father through an illness, and he’d ended up dying, and she developed various physical symptoms that troubled her a great deal and was also somewhat depressed. And Breuer and Freud dealt with that by developing a notion that what she was suffering from was repressed memories and trauma. And this would become central to psychoanalysis, the idea of half-muttered memories lurking in your subconscious that emerged in distorted forms of psychological symptoms and ways of being in the world that were disruptive. Freud, of course, develops a much more elaborate theory of this in years to come.
Andrew Scull
Fre- and Breuer collaborate on a book called Studies in Hysteria, and they’re a series of case vignettes in there of patients Freud has treated. And he develops the notion that people have these ex– past experiences. Initially, he thinks they’re real, that they’re– For example, they have been sexually assaulted as a child and that they can’t face that, and so they hide it away from themselves. But they can’t completely, so it emerges in this tortured series of forms. And as things develop, the notion of resistances emerges, that you can’t easily retrieve these memories, and indeed, you resist them surfacing, and you have a hard time acknowledging them.
Fre- and Breuer collaborate on a book called Studies in Hysteria, and they’re a series of case vignettes in there of patients Freud has treated. And he develops the notion that people have these ex– past experiences. Initially, he thinks they’re real, that they’re– For example, they have been sexually assaulted as a child and that they can’t face that, and so they hide it away from themselves. But they can’t completely, so it emerges in this tortured series of forms. And as things develop, the notion of resistances emerges, that you can’t easily retrieve these memories, and indeed, you resist them surfacing, and you have a hard time acknowledging them.
Andrew Scull
And only with long and painful work will it become possible for– But as you bring them into– from the unconscious into the conscious world, you learn to cope with them in a different way, and, and your personality is transformed and you’re made better.
And only with long and painful work will it become possible for– But as you bring them into– from the unconscious into the conscious world, you learn to cope with them in a different way, and, and your personality is transformed and you’re made better.
Lex Fridman
But crucially, the stuff that happens in childhood is important.
But crucially, the stuff that happens in childhood is important.
Andrew Scull
Yes. The early experiences have a dramatic effect, and I think even some biological psychiatrists would agree with that notion these days. That, you know, to the extent we abolish this distinction between mind and body and, and acknowledge that they are closely tied together, traumatic experiences in childhood, various socialization experiences, loss and so on deeply mark the human psyche, I think, and, and can have long term effects that are, are very powerful.
Yes. The early experiences have a dramatic effect, and I think even some biological psychiatrists would agree with that notion these days. That, you know, to the extent we abolish this distinction between mind and body and, and acknowledge that they are closely tied together, traumatic experiences in childhood, various socialization experiences, loss and so on deeply mark the human psyche, I think, and, and can have long term effects that are, are very powerful.
Lex Fridman
Of course, Freud added a bunch of stuff in the realm of psychosexual stages of childhood.
Of course, Freud added a bunch of stuff in the realm of psychosexual stages of childhood.
Andrew Scull
Yes. As he begins to develop his theories, he more and more comes to see at first the libido, which gets sort of transformed into the sex drive- … And sexual experiences and the repression of sexuality and the modification of sexuality as people grow. Um, all of that enters the picture. It’s one of the things that ends up dividing Freud and Jung, Jung somewhat because Jung downplays that sexual side of things after the break.
Yes. As he begins to develop his theories, he more and more comes to see at first the libido, which gets sort of transformed into the sex drive- … And sexual experiences and the repression of sexuality and the modification of sexuality as people grow. Um, all of that enters the picture. It’s one of the things that ends up dividing Freud and Jung, Jung somewhat because Jung downplays that sexual side of things after the break.
Andrew Scull
But so Freud develops a very complicated theory of mind initially reflecting his training as a neurologist. He tries to write an essay which survives called Project for a Scientific Psychology, and the scientific psychology is gonna tie psychology back into neurology. But he abandons that, and once he’s abandoned that, he goes on to develop an increasingly elaborate theory. He writes The Interpretation of Dreams, for example, because he begins to regard dreams as an arena where these hidden memories, these suppressed- … things reemerge in disguised form in your dream life. And so that book marks an important step forward. He becomes interested in things like slips of the tongue, so-called Freudian mistakes.
But so Freud develops a very complicated theory of mind initially reflecting his training as a neurologist. He tries to write an essay which survives called Project for a Scientific Psychology, and the scientific psychology is gonna tie psychology back into neurology. But he abandons that, and once he’s abandoned that, he goes on to develop an increasingly elaborate theory. He writes The Interpretation of Dreams, for example, because he begins to regard dreams as an arena where these hidden memories, these suppressed- … things reemerge in disguised form in your dream life. And so that book marks an important step forward. He becomes interested in things like slips of the tongue, so-called Freudian mistakes.
Andrew Scull
As seeing those as revealing what really is hidden from you. And so there’s this very elaborate dissection of things that relies upon long extended talk therapy.
As seeing those as revealing what really is hidden from you. And so there’s this very elaborate dissection of things that relies upon long extended talk therapy.
Lex Fridman
Of course underlying it he’s building a model of how this whole mind thing works. There’s- … three interacting parts of the personality. First, the id, which is the primitive, entirely unconscious, driven by pleasure principle, seeking immediate gratification or basic drives such as sex and aggression. There’s the ego, which is the rational mediator operating under reality principle, balancing the id’s demands with external reality. And finally, the superego, which is the internalized moral standards and ideals producing guilt or pride and striving for perfection. So that’s the structure.
Of course underlying it he’s building a model of how this whole mind thing works. There’s- … three interacting parts of the personality. First, the id, which is the primitive, entirely unconscious, driven by pleasure principle, seeking immediate gratification or basic drives such as sex and aggression. There’s the ego, which is the rational mediator operating under reality principle, balancing the id’s demands with external reality. And finally, the superego, which is the internalized moral standards and ideals producing guilt or pride and striving for perfection. So that’s the structure.
Andrew Scull
Yeah. That is broadly speaking the structure that Freud ends up with, and the conflicts between these entities and the ways they interact are obviously the thing that creates your mental universe, your way of being in the world and in many cases creates pathology, which through the process of psychoanalysis you can transform grotesque unhappiness into ordinary unhappiness or something like that. You know? So- …. Yes, you get that. And initially, Jung gets one of the heirs to the International Harvester fortune as a patient, and the McCormick family are as rich as the Rockefellers and the Carnegies and the Vanderbilts of that world.
Yeah. That is broadly speaking the structure that Freud ends up with, and the conflicts between these entities and the ways they interact are obviously the thing that creates your mental universe, your way of being in the world and in many cases creates pathology, which through the process of psychoanalysis you can transform grotesque unhappiness into ordinary unhappiness or something like that. You know? So- …. Yes, you get that. And initially, Jung gets one of the heirs to the International Harvester fortune as a patient, and the McCormick family are as rich as the Rockefellers and the Carnegies and the Vanderbilts of that world.
Andrew Scull
This guy is a US senator who ends up committing suicide in nineteen twenty-five after a lot of treatment from Jung when he fails to win reelection to the US Senate. He kills himself in Washington in the interregnum. But he also gets another one of that brood. One of the Rockefeller daughters, Edith Rockefeller, marries a McCormick.
This guy is a US senator who ends up committing suicide in nineteen twenty-five after a lot of treatment from Jung when he fails to win reelection to the US Senate. He kills himself in Washington in the interregnum. But he also gets another one of that brood. One of the Rockefeller daughters, Edith Rockefeller, marries a McCormick.
Andrew Scull
And she has a lot of psychological issues, and she tries to get Jung to move to Chicago promising him she’ll set him up in a mansion with lots of her friends as his patients, and Jung has no interest. So then she finally persuades him to come to New York and accompany her on the liner across to Zurich to be treated. She’s agoraphobic, and so she has a hard time being out of her little cocoon. So she’s treated there as an example of how peculiar she was. I mentioned the agoraphobia.
And she has a lot of psychological issues, and she tries to get Jung to move to Chicago promising him she’ll set him up in a mansion with lots of her friends as his patients, and Jung has no interest. So then she finally persuades him to come to New York and accompany her on the liner across to Zurich to be treated. She’s agoraphobic, and so she has a hard time being out of her little cocoon. So she’s treated there as an example of how peculiar she was. I mentioned the agoraphobia.
Andrew Scull
So she occupies a huge array of suites with all her servants and so on in Zurich. And she takes a train journey—it’s a stopping train—and her chauffeur follows the train in the Rolls Royce in case she has to jump out of the train at a station ’cause she can’t bear it anymore. And she becomes a Jungian analyst, but she’s very wealthy and she writes big checks to Jung, which is the important thing. And then Jung attracts Paul Mellon and his wife Mary. And so Jung’s works are published by Princeton University Press with a subvention from that Mellon Foundation. So it’s a long-running thing. Freud doesn’t get patients quite that rich. He gets some rich Americans.
So she occupies a huge array of suites with all her servants and so on in Zurich. And she takes a train journey—it’s a stopping train—and her chauffeur follows the train in the Rolls Royce in case she has to jump out of the train at a station ’cause she can’t bear it anymore. And she becomes a Jungian analyst, but she’s very wealthy and she writes big checks to Jung, which is the important thing. And then Jung attracts Paul Mellon and his wife Mary. And so Jung’s works are published by Princeton University Press with a subvention from that Mellon Foundation. So it’s a long-running thing. Freud doesn’t get patients quite that rich. He gets some rich Americans.
Lex Fridman
We should say that Freud became– Freud’s ideas became quite popular among the intellectual and artist class in the nineteen twenties in America.
We should say that Freud became– Freud’s ideas became quite popular among the intellectual and artist class in the nineteen twenties in America.
Andrew Scull
And another thing happened. World War I saw the breakdown of many soldiers from something that came to be labeled as shell shock. The label shell shock intimates its—the first theories about its origin, which was that shells bursting near you and bombs bursting near you shook up your body and your brain and created some physical damage that then accounted for the symptoms of shell shock: your mutism, your blindism, your constant shaking, your nightmares, all of that. But it became increasingly apparent that shell shock was actually a psychological thing. The trauma of war in significant number of cases brought about mental breakdowns.
And another thing happened. World War I saw the breakdown of many soldiers from something that came to be labeled as shell shock. The label shell shock intimates its—the first theories about its origin, which was that shells bursting near you and bombs bursting near you shook up your body and your brain and created some physical damage that then accounted for the symptoms of shell shock: your mutism, your blindism, your constant shaking, your nightmares, all of that. But it became increasingly apparent that shell shock was actually a psychological thing. The trauma of war in significant number of cases brought about mental breakdowns.
Andrew Scull
And in thinking about that, Freud’s ideas about the unconscious mind and trauma and its connection to symptomatology acquired a new significance for a lot of people in that period. And then after the war, you’re absolutely right among a certain smart section of society, those ideas developed a considerable purchase. Psychiatrists who were mostly stuck in the asylums dealing with psychotic patients wanted nothing to do with these ideas and this talk therapy. The mainstream psychotherapy which was mostly in a clinical setting, yeah, Freud’s ideas were not popular. No.
And in thinking about that, Freud’s ideas about the unconscious mind and trauma and its connection to symptomatology acquired a new significance for a lot of people in that period. And then after the war, you’re absolutely right among a certain smart section of society, those ideas developed a considerable purchase. Psychiatrists who were mostly stuck in the asylums dealing with psychotic patients wanted nothing to do with these ideas and this talk therapy. The mainstream psychotherapy which was mostly in a clinical setting, yeah, Freud’s ideas were not popular. No.
Andrew Scull
The only partial exception to that was um, the mental hospital in Washington DC–the only federal mental hospital, St. Elizabeths. William Alanson White, who was then the superintendent, was somewhat sympathetic to Freud’s ideas and tried a bit, but you’re talking about thousands of patients and the idea of talk therapy for them is obviously out of reach, plus they are much more severely disturbed. So it does happen: novelists, painters, artists, playwrights, and the audience for those elite forms of culture do tend to embrace Freudian ideas. Sex sells in the theater and on the movies, obviously. But beyond that part of Freud’s appeal to everybody, it was something he lamented at one point. He said, “You know my case histories read like short stories, like works of fiction, and in that
The only partial exception to that was um, the mental hospital in Washington DC–the only federal mental hospital, St. Elizabeths. William Alanson White, who was then the superintendent, was somewhat sympathetic to Freud’s ideas and tried a bit, but you’re talking about thousands of patients and the idea of talk therapy for them is obviously out of reach, plus they are much more severely disturbed. So it does happen: novelists, painters, artists, playwrights, and the audience for those elite forms of culture do tend to embrace Freudian ideas. Sex sells in the theater and on the movies, obviously. But beyond that part of Freud’s appeal to everybody, it was something he lamented at one point. He said, “You know my case histories read like short stories, like works of fiction, and in that
Andrew Scull
sense people think they lack the stamp of serious science. But I’m driven to that because that’s how I unpack what’s going on. Well, psychoanalysis is telling stories. It’s getting people to recover stories, recover memories, to rebuild, right? Um and its elements of psychological conflict and hidden motives and so forth, naturally very appealing to people writing novels, people writing plays, people doing screenplays. And for artists of the modern sort, the idea that we can extract things from the subconscious, Surrealism and the like for example, are clearly very heavily influenced by Freudian ideas. But it’s important to know circa 1930 there are probably three hundred psychoanalysts in North America if they each Classical psychoanalysis involving five hours a week. They can’t treat
sense people think they lack the stamp of serious science. But I’m driven to that because that’s how I unpack what’s going on. Well, psychoanalysis is telling stories. It’s getting people to recover stories, recover memories, to rebuild, right? Um and its elements of psychological conflict and hidden motives and so forth, naturally very appealing to people writing novels, people writing plays, people doing screenplays. And for artists of the modern sort, the idea that we can extract things from the subconscious, Surrealism and the like for example, are clearly very heavily influenced by Freudian ideas. But it’s important to know circa 1930 there are probably three hundred psychoanalysts in North America if they each Classical psychoanalysis involving five hours a week. They can’t treat
WWII and Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT)
Andrew Scull
that many patients. A few thousand when there are hundreds of thousands in the hospitals. Right. Mm-hmm. So what changes that? Hitler starts killing off Jews and killing off psychoanalysts. The ones who can escape, some of them go to England and some come to America. Uh, the most famous escapee is Freud himself and his daughter Anna. Princess Bonaparte, who’s one of Freud’s great supporters, bribes the Nazis to get him out. And he travels by train to London, very sick with cancer of the jaw, as he has been since the mid-’20s. So he sets up shop in London, and Anna succeeds him really as one of the central figures in British psychoanalysis. But other analysts come here to America. So the numbers of analysts probably by 1940, America’s not yet in the war, have a bit more than doubled. And more importantly,
that many patients. A few thousand when there are hundreds of thousands in the hospitals. Right. Mm-hmm. So what changes that? Hitler starts killing off Jews and killing off psychoanalysts. The ones who can escape, some of them go to England and some come to America. Uh, the most famous escapee is Freud himself and his daughter Anna. Princess Bonaparte, who’s one of Freud’s great supporters, bribes the Nazis to get him out. And he travels by train to London, very sick with cancer of the jaw, as he has been since the mid-’20s. So he sets up shop in London, and Anna succeeds him really as one of the central figures in British psychoanalysis. But other analysts come here to America. So the numbers of analysts probably by 1940, America’s not yet in the war, have a bit more than doubled. And more importantly,
Andrew Scull
psychoanalytic training has become much more organized here. The institutes outside the universities control psych… And universities are not yet the knowledge factories they become after the war. Mm-hmm. And that’s a crucial mistake that psychoanalysis makes. It’s great because it controls its training completely. The bad thing is when the center of gravity moves to the university, it’s not there and either resists being incorporated or the university resists incorporating it. So I think that’s a structural weakness for that. But what really transforms things is World War II. Five fifty-minute hours famously–they last fifty minutes ’cause then there’s ten minutes for analysts to recover before the next patient arrives. Yes. You are free associating on the couch and gradually being
psychoanalytic training has become much more organized here. The institutes outside the universities control psych… And universities are not yet the knowledge factories they become after the war. Mm-hmm. And that’s a crucial mistake that psychoanalysis makes. It’s great because it controls its training completely. The bad thing is when the center of gravity moves to the university, it’s not there and either resists being incorporated or the university resists incorporating it. So I think that’s a structural weakness for that. But what really transforms things is World War II. Five fifty-minute hours famously–they last fifty minutes ’cause then there’s ten minutes for analysts to recover before the next patient arrives. Yes. You are free associating on the couch and gradually being
Andrew Scull
coaxed to see as material emerges what you’re hiding from yourself. I mean initially they tried–this is in their early early days–they tried hypnosis, yes. But they’ve… You know, this is where Freud took the big leap and expanded to free association. Right. So I mentioned Freud training under Charcot. Charcot hypnotized his hysterical patients. We now know a lot of that was fakery. Not–I don’t think he was conscious of the fakery, but the patients were on display over and over again and they worked their routines up very well and they deceived him and they deceived the audience. But Freud came back from Paris bringing with him the idea that hypnosis was the way forward. But after the break with Breuer–Breuer had a general medical practice and lost interest in hysteria and didn’t want anything to
coaxed to see as material emerges what you’re hiding from yourself. I mean initially they tried–this is in their early early days–they tried hypnosis, yes. But they’ve… You know, this is where Freud took the big leap and expanded to free association. Right. So I mentioned Freud training under Charcot. Charcot hypnotized his hysterical patients. We now know a lot of that was fakery. Not–I don’t think he was conscious of the fakery, but the patients were on display over and over again and they worked their routines up very well and they deceived him and they deceived the audience. But Freud came back from Paris bringing with him the idea that hypnosis was the way forward. But after the break with Breuer–Breuer had a general medical practice and lost interest in hysteria and didn’t want anything to
Andrew Scull
do with the revisions of Freud’s work on hysteria. After that happened, Freud, who was a very clumsy hypnotist by his own account, began to develop this alternative of free association and getting people to speak whatever came into their head without a censor. That was the important thing, that the half-murdered memories were being hidden from you and your–uh, the constellation of psychological forces in your unconscious was squashing them down, but they were reemerging as other kinds of symptoms.
do with the revisions of Freud’s work on hysteria. After that happened, Freud, who was a very clumsy hypnotist by his own account, began to develop this alternative of free association and getting people to speak whatever came into their head without a censor. That was the important thing, that the half-murdered memories were being hidden from you and your–uh, the constellation of psychological forces in your unconscious was squashing them down, but they were reemerging as other kinds of symptoms.
Lex Fridman
So how well does psychoanalysis work? How much do we understand? We’ve talked about all these approaches that didn’t work. How well did it work at that time?
So how well does psychoanalysis work? How much do we understand? We’ve talked about all these approaches that didn’t work. How well did it work at that time?
Andrew Scull
You know, one of the things after World War II, when psychoanalysis was making great strides in America and the Rockefeller Foundation was still heavily involved in promoting psychiatry and developing what it hoped would be new tools in it, the then heads of the institute–of the funding program, Alan Gregg and Robert Morison, especially Morison, kept pressing the analysts, “Provide us proof that what you do works.” And the analysts kept resisting and resisting and resisting, saying, “It’s much more complicated than that. There’s no easy measure because what we’re doing is reconstructing entire personalities, entire ways of being. People sense themselves, their ways of being in the world, and we don’t have easy ways to measure that.”
You know, one of the things after World War II, when psychoanalysis was making great strides in America and the Rockefeller Foundation was still heavily involved in promoting psychiatry and developing what it hoped would be new tools in it, the then heads of the institute–of the funding program, Alan Gregg and Robert Morison, especially Morison, kept pressing the analysts, “Provide us proof that what you do works.” And the analysts kept resisting and resisting and resisting, saying, “It’s much more complicated than that. There’s no easy measure because what we’re doing is reconstructing entire personalities, entire ways of being. People sense themselves, their ways of being in the world, and we don’t have easy ways to measure that.”
Lex Fridman
To contrast that with the eighty percent promises over and over and over and over. Yes, yes, yes.
To contrast that with the eighty percent promises over and over and over and over. Yes, yes, yes.
Andrew Scull
And it’s a long and complicated pro… That was very important. Because another kind of psychotherapeutics is emerging in, in the aftermath, during and in the aftermath of the war, as a rival for both psychiatry and for psychoanalysis. Initially not terribly successful, but as time goes on, a more and more important part of the story. So to focus on the war for a minute, America’s psychiatrists went to the military brass and to the politicians before America entered the war, and it had some advance warning because America didn’t enter till Pearl Harbor, but the European war had been going on.
And it’s a long and complicated pro… That was very important. Because another kind of psychotherapeutics is emerging in, in the aftermath, during and in the aftermath of the war, as a rival for both psychiatry and for psychoanalysis. Initially not terribly successful, but as time goes on, a more and more important part of the story. So to focus on the war for a minute, America’s psychiatrists went to the military brass and to the politicians before America entered the war, and it had some advance warning because America didn’t enter till Pearl Harbor, but the European war had been going on.
Andrew Scull
And they said, look, if we have to fight, we’re gonna have the same problem we had in the First World War. We’re gonna train these soldiers, gonna equip them, we’re gonna put them in the battlefield and the psychologically vulnerable among them are gonna break down. Mm-hmm. There’ll be shell shock all over again, so we should screen all recruits to make sure they’re not psychologically weak and susceptible. And they screen out one and three-quarter million people and say, “These men are not fit.” So now we won’t have the problems we had in World War I, except it quickly turns out that those problems reemerge. Industrial warfare exposes people to seeing things and doing things that all of us in normal life would recoil from. And when we’re forced to do them as soldiers, many of us can’t–I speak from experience
And they said, look, if we have to fight, we’re gonna have the same problem we had in the First World War. We’re gonna train these soldiers, gonna equip them, we’re gonna put them in the battlefield and the psychologically vulnerable among them are gonna break down. Mm-hmm. There’ll be shell shock all over again, so we should screen all recruits to make sure they’re not psychologically weak and susceptible. And they screen out one and three-quarter million people and say, “These men are not fit.” So now we won’t have the problems we had in World War I, except it quickly turns out that those problems reemerge. Industrial warfare exposes people to seeing things and doing things that all of us in normal life would recoil from. And when we’re forced to do them as soldiers, many of us can’t–I speak from experience
Andrew Scull
but from talking to people who’ve gone through all this, uh, many of them find the experiences and the memories those create intolerable. And they emerge in symptoms, and they break down. So it became a huge problem for the American Army, as it did for all the armies, actually. The Nazis just shot people who broke down. Bang, you’re dead, we’re not dealing with you. But, um, obviously the Allies, that was not the response. Um, and they quickly had to try to treat these troops, maybe get them back into the fighting lines, maybe get them into support positions, something to cope with the problem, which both created extraordinary morale problems among the troops, and it invited malingering, claiming you had these conditions when you didn’t. It obviously cost a lot of the fighting force. In combat
but from talking to people who’ve gone through all this, uh, many of them find the experiences and the memories those create intolerable. And they emerge in symptoms, and they break down. So it became a huge problem for the American Army, as it did for all the armies, actually. The Nazis just shot people who broke down. Bang, you’re dead, we’re not dealing with you. But, um, obviously the Allies, that was not the response. Um, and they quickly had to try to treat these troops, maybe get them back into the fighting lines, maybe get them into support positions, something to cope with the problem, which both created extraordinary morale problems among the troops, and it invited malingering, claiming you had these conditions when you didn’t. It obviously cost a lot of the fighting force. In combat
Andrew Scull
conditions, as much as twenty-five percent of the soldiers broke down. So it was a big, big problem. Before the war, there were about two thousand psychiatrists in North America, in the US. At the end of the war, there were more than two thousand psychiatrists in the US military. Okay. So you had to train people in a hurry. Mm-hmm. And even still, it was hard to get enough people trained. And it turned out that the head of the US military–not the first, but the first one died, the second one was a man named William Menninger from the Menninger Clinic in Kansas, where he and his brother ran a psychoanalytic treatment facility. So Bill Menninger became the head of army psychiatry. He concluded that the best treatment for these soldiers breaking down was psychotherapeutic in nature. The
conditions, as much as twenty-five percent of the soldiers broke down. So it was a big, big problem. Before the war, there were about two thousand psychiatrists in North America, in the US. At the end of the war, there were more than two thousand psychiatrists in the US military. Okay. So you had to train people in a hurry. Mm-hmm. And even still, it was hard to get enough people trained. And it turned out that the head of the US military–not the first, but the first one died, the second one was a man named William Menninger from the Menninger Clinic in Kansas, where he and his brother ran a psychoanalytic treatment facility. So Bill Menninger became the head of army psychiatry. He concluded that the best treatment for these soldiers breaking down was psychotherapeutic in nature. The
Andrew Scull
origin of their condition was trauma. Uh, and so in a watered-down way, Freud’s ideas, those were the ones that the people that recruited quickly and retrained as psychiatrists absorbed. So they formed after the war a fairly coherent group of people, separate from the psychiatrists in the state hospitals who were still very biologically oriented. Another group emerged during the war precisely because you couldn’t produce enough psychotherapists who were MDs quickly enough. Psychologists were drafted in and asked to treat.
origin of their condition was trauma. Uh, and so in a watered-down way, Freud’s ideas, those were the ones that the people that recruited quickly and retrained as psychiatrists absorbed. So they formed after the war a fairly coherent group of people, separate from the psychiatrists in the state hospitals who were still very biologically oriented. Another group emerged during the war precisely because you couldn’t produce enough psychotherapists who were MDs quickly enough. Psychologists were drafted in and asked to treat.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Andrew Scull
So what they disco– What the psychologists discovered was, “Hey, we could do this stuff too, and we really like it.” “It’s interesting-“
So what they disco– What the psychologists discovered was, “Hey, we could do this stuff too, and we really like it.” “It’s interesting-“
Andrew Scull
“…it’s challenging. We, we should do that.” So after the war, similar kind of problem. Mental illness is a massive problem. The returning soldiers, it’s a big problem, but it’s also a problem in the, in the community. These guys don’t… The, the psychiatrists don’t go and work in the mental hospital. They start outpatient treatment. And by 1958, about 80% of psychiatrists are working in outpatient rather than in the hospitals, right? So the psychologists organize themselves and federal money–again, “We need you. We need you. We need more of you.” So the VA, the Veterans Administration, and then once the National Institute of Mental Health is established, they start providing a lot of money for training, and they train not just psychiatrists, they train psychologists.
“…it’s challenging. We, we should do that.” So after the war, similar kind of problem. Mental illness is a massive problem. The returning soldiers, it’s a big problem, but it’s also a problem in the, in the community. These guys don’t… The, the psychiatrists don’t go and work in the mental hospital. They start outpatient treatment. And by 1958, about 80% of psychiatrists are working in outpatient rather than in the hospitals, right? So the psychologists organize themselves and federal money–again, “We need you. We need you. We need more of you.” So the VA, the Veterans Administration, and then once the National Institute of Mental Health is established, they start providing a lot of money for training, and they train not just psychiatrists, they train psychologists.
Andrew Scull
So the question is: How are the psychologists gonna set up clinical training? So what the psychologists come up with, the clinically oriented ones, is a training program where would-be clinical psychologists spend two years learning basic scientific psychology and research methods, and then they have two or three years of clinical work and experience. And that’s very clever because it means when they start looking for grants, they know how to do that, and the psychoanalysts don’t have a clue how to apply for federal grant money, and they don’t get any, almost. Beyond that, these people begin to work on treating symptoms. The psychoanalysts think to treat a symptom is to play Whac-A-Mole.
So the question is: How are the psychologists gonna set up clinical training? So what the psychologists come up with, the clinically oriented ones, is a training program where would-be clinical psychologists spend two years learning basic scientific psychology and research methods, and then they have two or three years of clinical work and experience. And that’s very clever because it means when they start looking for grants, they know how to do that, and the psychoanalysts don’t have a clue how to apply for federal grant money, and they don’t get any, almost. Beyond that, these people begin to work on treating symptoms. The psychoanalysts think to treat a symptom is to play Whac-A-Mole.
Andrew Scull
If you don’t deal with the underlying problems of the personality, their interaction between your id ego and superego, you suppress that symptom, and another one will pop up over here. The clinical psychologists go, “We’re gonna treat the symptoms of what are troubling people. We’re gonna treat the symptoms, and we’re gonna develop techniques that allow people to cope with those symptoms and eliminate them.” Uh, and how are we gonna do that? We’re going to do it primarily through what initially is cognitive behavioral therapy and later interpersonal therapy and some other variants emerge.
If you don’t deal with the underlying problems of the personality, their interaction between your id ego and superego, you suppress that symptom, and another one will pop up over here. The clinical psychologists go, “We’re gonna treat the symptoms of what are troubling people. We’re gonna treat the symptoms, and we’re gonna develop techniques that allow people to cope with those symptoms and eliminate them.” Uh, and how are we gonna do that? We’re going to do it primarily through what initially is cognitive behavioral therapy and later interpersonal therapy and some other variants emerge.
Andrew Scull
But basically, what they try to do with those techniques is develop things that work relatively quickly, work specifically on one set of problems or small subset of problems, and try to get those under control. And how does, how does it work? You’ve developed really bad habits. You… The way you react to being socially snubbed or being ignored or you– the way you deal with your coworkers or the trouble you’re having with your disruptive child will help you see the patterns that you’ve fallen into and will give you exercises that will work to give you a better way of coping with those things that don’t produce these symptoms. I’m oversimplifying obviously, but basically that’s the fundamental thrust of this.
But basically, what they try to do with those techniques is develop things that work relatively quickly, work specifically on one set of problems or small subset of problems, and try to get those under control. And how does, how does it work? You’ve developed really bad habits. You… The way you react to being socially snubbed or being ignored or you– the way you deal with your coworkers or the trouble you’re having with your disruptive child will help you see the patterns that you’ve fallen into and will give you exercises that will work to give you a better way of coping with those things that don’t produce these symptoms. I’m oversimplifying obviously, but basically that’s the fundamental thrust of this.
Lex Fridman
And one of the other contrasting things about CBT, Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, is that it doesn’t have necessarily that heavy requirement of five hours a week.
And one of the other contrasting things about CBT, Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, is that it doesn’t have necessarily that heavy requirement of five hours a week.
Andrew Scull
Exactly. So these therapies could be packaged. They could be reproduced. They could be tested to see whether they worked, so they had an evidentiary foundation. The psychoanalyst would say, “It’s gonna take us years, and it’s hard to measure.” These guys went, “Well, we’ll measure what, what happens when we treat people this way?”
Exactly. So these therapies could be packaged. They could be reproduced. They could be tested to see whether they worked, so they had an evidentiary foundation. The psychoanalyst would say, “It’s gonna take us years, and it’s hard to measure.” These guys went, “Well, we’ll measure what, what happens when we treat people this way?”
Lex Fridman
Psychologists.
Psychologists.
Andrew Scull
Yeah. The symptoms are what matter, not the underlying– you know, the underlying more complex thing that psychoanalysts claimed to be treating. And so it’s shorter. It’s reproducible whereas psychoanalytic– You know, every patient is a new patient, with a new set of complicated things going on. Here we are. We’re gonna do this.
Yeah. The symptoms are what matter, not the underlying– you know, the underlying more complex thing that psychoanalysts claimed to be treating. And so it’s shorter. It’s reproducible whereas psychoanalytic– You know, every patient is a new patient, with a new set of complicated things going on. Here we are. We’re gonna do this.
Lex Fridman
And the key figures here is Albert Bandura, Albert Ellis, Aaron Beck.
And the key figures here is Albert Bandura, Albert Ellis, Aaron Beck.
Andrew Scull
Yes. Um, Bandura and some other psychologists launching this movement, and then later on Aaron Beck, who went by Tim Beck who just recently died at… I think he was ninety-nine. Extraordinary.
Yes. Um, Bandura and some other psychologists launching this movement, and then later on Aaron Beck, who went by Tim Beck who just recently died at… I think he was ninety-nine. Extraordinary.
Lex Fridman
No, no, I think he crossed 100.
No, no, I think he crossed 100.
Andrew Scull
Maybe 100. Yeah. Maybe 100.
Maybe 100. Yeah. Maybe 100.
Lex Fridman
There’s videos of him talking at that age and he’s still, he’s still killing it, so wise.
There’s videos of him talking at that age and he’s still, he’s still killing it, so wise.
Andrew Scull
Aaron Beck is, is a remarkable figure because he was also one of the first in the 1960s to look at psychiatric diagnosis and show how unreliable it was, how difficult it was to get psychiatrists to agree on what was wrong.
Aaron Beck is, is a remarkable figure because he was also one of the first in the 1960s to look at psychiatric diagnosis and show how unreliable it was, how difficult it was to get psychiatrists to agree on what was wrong.
Lex Fridman
So he was a psychoanalyst, right?
So he was a psychoanalyst, right?
Andrew Scull
He had been trained as a psychoanalyst, became disillusioned with it, and so there were two strands, two important strands that stemmed from his work. First, this… He was one of the ones within the community itself who said to his fellow psychiatrists, “You know, we’re not very good at this diagnosis business-” “… and maybe we need to work on that.”
He had been trained as a psychoanalyst, became disillusioned with it, and so there were two strands, two important strands that stemmed from his work. First, this… He was one of the ones within the community itself who said to his fellow psychiatrists, “You know, we’re not very good at this diagnosis business-” “… and maybe we need to work on that.”
Andrew Scull
Okay? And that was very important for the movement towards DSM-III. The other side of the coin was he broke with the idea that treating symptoms was a waste of time, and joined with the psychologists who already embarked on that journey to say, “How can we develop techniques to overcome these self-destructive ways in which people are responding? How can we help with their ability to interact?” So interpersonal therapy is much– you know, much more concerned with the way in which if your relations with other people break down, that damages your emotional stability. If you repair those relationships, that helps your emotional stability come back. So all of this develops, and Americans are unusual. The– most of the rest of the world has what we call socialized medicine.
Okay? And that was very important for the movement towards DSM-III. The other side of the coin was he broke with the idea that treating symptoms was a waste of time, and joined with the psychologists who already embarked on that journey to say, “How can we develop techniques to overcome these self-destructive ways in which people are responding? How can we help with their ability to interact?” So interpersonal therapy is much– you know, much more concerned with the way in which if your relations with other people break down, that damages your emotional stability. If you repair those relationships, that helps your emotional stability come back. So all of this develops, and Americans are unusual. The– most of the rest of the world has what we call socialized medicine.
Andrew Scull
America doesn’t have that, so we’re used to paying for medical care. And so Americans were more willing, I think, to pay for clinical psychologists, and they attacked some of the problems of everyday living, the more uh, I was gonna say minor, but these are often quite distressing things. But those were the things they were most successful at doing. If I look at the literature on CBT, for example, and its uses in cases of schizophrenia, the evidence is pretty poor that it works. And even the evidence for the milder conditions is a bit more ambiguous than we like… That they like to pretend.
America doesn’t have that, so we’re used to paying for medical care. And so Americans were more willing, I think, to pay for clinical psychologists, and they attacked some of the problems of everyday living, the more uh, I was gonna say minor, but these are often quite distressing things. But those were the things they were most successful at doing. If I look at the literature on CBT, for example, and its uses in cases of schizophrenia, the evidence is pretty poor that it works. And even the evidence for the milder conditions is a bit more ambiguous than we like… That they like to pretend.
Andrew Scull
The Cochrane Reviews, which are a systematic attempt to assess how strong the evidence for particular approaches to disease of all sorts are, say that at best, the evidence for CBT is of low and medium confidence, you know? But I think, again, there are patients for whom this helps, and indeed, for the milder forms of depression, I think CBT works better than the drugs without some of the side effects that the, the drugs have. And indeed, NICE, which is the British organization that passes on what treatments the National Health Service will support and which ones are, are sufficiently evidence-based has come to that same conclusion.
The Cochrane Reviews, which are a systematic attempt to assess how strong the evidence for particular approaches to disease of all sorts are, say that at best, the evidence for CBT is of low and medium confidence, you know? But I think, again, there are patients for whom this helps, and indeed, for the milder forms of depression, I think CBT works better than the drugs without some of the side effects that the, the drugs have. And indeed, NICE, which is the British organization that passes on what treatments the National Health Service will support and which ones are, are sufficiently evidence-based has come to that same conclusion.
Lex Fridman
So I think one thing to just say about cognitive behavioral therapy, I mean, it’s– It has some elements of kind of surface level intuitive kind of things like- … being aware of and adjusting your thought patterns, being aware of triggers that get you- … down a negative spiral- … and then basic behavior changes, habit changes that lead to a healthier life. So I think, I think this kinda, you know, getting your life together kind of process- is, is intuitive that that would have a positive effect on some percent of the population. But as you get more serious and serious into the land of mental disorders, it starts to be a little bit less conclusive.
So I think one thing to just say about cognitive behavioral therapy, I mean, it’s– It has some elements of kind of surface level intuitive kind of things like- … being aware of and adjusting your thought patterns, being aware of triggers that get you- … down a negative spiral- … and then basic behavior changes, habit changes that lead to a healthier life. So I think, I think this kinda, you know, getting your life together kind of process- is, is intuitive that that would have a positive effect on some percent of the population. But as you get more serious and serious into the land of mental disorders, it starts to be a little bit less conclusive.
Andrew Scull
Yes. I think that’s an accurate statement of what– the way I read the literature. And it’s not a cure-all, but for some patients, this really does seem to improve things quite a lot. And it, it does make sense that you have developed poor ways of responding to signals from the outside world, and they’ve become habitual, and they’ve — habits, as we know, are very hard to break. You know, there’s a lot of homework, there’s a lot of exercises you have to do to try to reconfigure the ways you deal with the world. And it’s not for everybody, and it doesn’t work for everybody, but there’s some set, subset of people for whom this seems to have positive effects.
Yes. I think that’s an accurate statement of what– the way I read the literature. And it’s not a cure-all, but for some patients, this really does seem to improve things quite a lot. And it, it does make sense that you have developed poor ways of responding to signals from the outside world, and they’ve become habitual, and they’ve — habits, as we know, are very hard to break. You know, there’s a lot of homework, there’s a lot of exercises you have to do to try to reconfigure the ways you deal with the world. And it’s not for everybody, and it doesn’t work for everybody, but there’s some set, subset of people for whom this seems to have positive effects.
Antipsychotics
Lex Fridman
So this, this is the lay of the land. We talked about some of the darkness. Lobotomies and so on. There is some talk therapy ideas of psychoanalysis, and then there is, from the clinical psychology side, cognitive behavioral therapy. Then starts to emerge the psychopharmacology- …that challenges this whole shebang of talk therapy, period. And can you talk about the accidental origins of psychopharmacology- …that challenges this whole thing?
So this, this is the lay of the land. We talked about some of the darkness. Lobotomies and so on. There is some talk therapy ideas of psychoanalysis, and then there is, from the clinical psychology side, cognitive behavioral therapy. Then starts to emerge the psychopharmacology- …that challenges this whole shebang of talk therapy, period. And can you talk about the accidental origins of psychopharmacology- …that challenges this whole thing?
Andrew Scull
Hardly anybody had conceived of the idea that drugs could be used to treat mental illness. Drugs had been used in the mental hospitals back in the 19th and 20th centuries, but they were usually things that were used to control patients, to calm them down. Opiates, for example, various hypnotics that would put people to sleep when they were extremely agitated and so forth. Sometimes marijuana was experimented with, as was alcohol in the 19th century, interestingly enough, given the revival of psychedelics. But the idea that a drug might be used to actually attack the underlying problem, it emerged by accident in the following kind of way.
Hardly anybody had conceived of the idea that drugs could be used to treat mental illness. Drugs had been used in the mental hospitals back in the 19th and 20th centuries, but they were usually things that were used to control patients, to calm them down. Opiates, for example, various hypnotics that would put people to sleep when they were extremely agitated and so forth. Sometimes marijuana was experimented with, as was alcohol in the 19th century, interestingly enough, given the revival of psychedelics. But the idea that a drug might be used to actually attack the underlying problem, it emerged by accident in the following kind of way.
Andrew Scull
The drug industry in general had emerged mostly in Germany, where I’d mentioned the most advanced medicine was being practiced in the late 19th century. From the chemical industry from, for example, refining coal tar into different substances, that’s where we got aspirin. That’s where we got a whole bunch of drugs. And gradually, the drug companies become more organized. They differentiate themselves from all the quack remedies that are around. And the war, I think, greatly accelerates– Again, World War II greatly accelerates things, not least because we discover a real magic bullet called penicillin and then the other antibiotics that we subsequently come across.
The drug industry in general had emerged mostly in Germany, where I’d mentioned the most advanced medicine was being practiced in the late 19th century. From the chemical industry from, for example, refining coal tar into different substances, that’s where we got aspirin. That’s where we got a whole bunch of drugs. And gradually, the drug companies become more organized. They differentiate themselves from all the quack remedies that are around. And the war, I think, greatly accelerates– Again, World War II greatly accelerates things, not least because we discover a real magic bullet called penicillin and then the other antibiotics that we subsequently come across.
Andrew Scull
Penicillin had been observed by Alexander Fleming, famously in his lab in some Petri dishes where bacteria had been killed. Later was one of the co-winners of Nobel Prize and made a lot of capital out of that discovery. It was really Howard Florey and his team at Oxford who developed the therapeutic potential of penicillin. And actually, Florey flew some of it in his jacket across the Atlantic to America, and it was Americans that solved the critical thing. It took Florey and his team weeks to develop enough penicillin to treat a single mouse. What America learned how to do was mass produce penicillin. And that was critical because it was vital to the war effort, obviously.
Penicillin had been observed by Alexander Fleming, famously in his lab in some Petri dishes where bacteria had been killed. Later was one of the co-winners of Nobel Prize and made a lot of capital out of that discovery. It was really Howard Florey and his team at Oxford who developed the therapeutic potential of penicillin. And actually, Florey flew some of it in his jacket across the Atlantic to America, and it was Americans that solved the critical thing. It took Florey and his team weeks to develop enough penicillin to treat a single mouse. What America learned how to do was mass produce penicillin. And that was critical because it was vital to the war effort, obviously.
Andrew Scull
And after the war, it was vital to the civilian population because it was such an, an important breakthrough. So drugs, drug companies grew fatter on that. They embarked on research to try to find new substances they could use to treat things. And a French company named Rhône-Poulenc came across a chemical that had actually been synthesized back in the 1880s in Germany. It was an antihistamine, chlorpromazine. They didn’t know what to do with it, but other kinds of antihistamines in the war had been used effectively, and they thought, “Well, let’s look and see if we can find a market for this drug.” And so they… The interesting thing to remember in those days is that investigating the property of new drugs was a Wild West phenomenon. There were no controls.
And after the war, it was vital to the civilian population because it was such an, an important breakthrough. So drugs, drug companies grew fatter on that. They embarked on research to try to find new substances they could use to treat things. And a French company named Rhône-Poulenc came across a chemical that had actually been synthesized back in the 1880s in Germany. It was an antihistamine, chlorpromazine. They didn’t know what to do with it, but other kinds of antihistamines in the war had been used effectively, and they thought, “Well, let’s look and see if we can find a market for this drug.” And so they… The interesting thing to remember in those days is that investigating the property of new drugs was a Wild West phenomenon. There were no controls.
Andrew Scull
You could do whatever you wanted, and you handed stuff out and said, “Why don’t you try this and see if it works?” Right? So Rhône-Poulenc did that. They thought this might work as an antiemetic. If you have a child who’s prone to car sickness, you give them an antiemetic drug. So that was one possibility. Another possibility, it might work for eczema so that people didn’t scratch themselves. Well, there were a number of possibilities and somebody said, “Well, maybe it will work as an anesthetic potentiator,” meaning if you gave some of these, you need to use less anesthetic, or would act like a catalyst because it tended to make you sleepy. If you read the leaflets on Dramamine, one of the cautions is, “It’ll make you sleepy, don’t drive,” right?
You could do whatever you wanted, and you handed stuff out and said, “Why don’t you try this and see if it works?” Right? So Rhône-Poulenc did that. They thought this might work as an antiemetic. If you have a child who’s prone to car sickness, you give them an antiemetic drug. So that was one possibility. Another possibility, it might work for eczema so that people didn’t scratch themselves. Well, there were a number of possibilities and somebody said, “Well, maybe it will work as an anesthetic potentiator,” meaning if you gave some of these, you need to use less anesthetic, or would act like a catalyst because it tended to make you sleepy. If you read the leaflets on Dramamine, one of the cautions is, “It’ll make you sleepy, don’t drive,” right?
Andrew Scull
So why don’t we give it to some surgeons and see if they can find a use for it? Literally it’s like that. And one of the people who gets that drug is a lieutenant in the French Navy, Henri Laborit, and he tries it as an anesthetic potentiator, and he also gives it to some of the patients who are awaiting surgery. Normally when you’re awaiting surgery, you’re a little bit anxious. These patients stop being anxious. This was the era of lobotomies, and he wrote to one of his relatives who worked in one of the Paris mental hospitals. He said, “This like, this works like a chemical lobotomy. These people don’t care anymore about their surgery.”
So why don’t we give it to some surgeons and see if they can find a use for it? Literally it’s like that. And one of the people who gets that drug is a lieutenant in the French Navy, Henri Laborit, and he tries it as an anesthetic potentiator, and he also gives it to some of the patients who are awaiting surgery. Normally when you’re awaiting surgery, you’re a little bit anxious. These patients stop being anxious. This was the era of lobotomies, and he wrote to one of his relatives who worked in one of the Paris mental hospitals. He said, “This like, this works like a chemical lobotomy. These people don’t care anymore about their surgery.”
Lex Fridman
And that’s supposed to be a good thing, right?
And that’s supposed to be a good thing, right?
Andrew Scull
Well, lobotomy hadn’t become the nasty word it, it would become in a few years. So one of his colleagues contacts Delay and Deniker, who work at Saint-Anne’s which is the biggest mental hospital in Paris and says, “Hey guys this might work on your psychiatric patients. You should give it a try.” And they do. When it doesn’t work, they give larger dose and when it doesn’t work they give a large dose and sure enough patients stopped acting out. They stopped smashing furniture. They, they become– They’re still sorta conscious but they’re less mobile and they’re much calmer.
Well, lobotomy hadn’t become the nasty word it, it would become in a few years. So one of his colleagues contacts Delay and Deniker, who work at Saint-Anne’s which is the biggest mental hospital in Paris and says, “Hey guys this might work on your psychiatric patients. You should give it a try.” And they do. When it doesn’t work, they give larger dose and when it doesn’t work they give a large dose and sure enough patients stopped acting out. They stopped smashing furniture. They, they become– They’re still sorta conscious but they’re less mobile and they’re much calmer.
Andrew Scull
And this is why in the early stages Chlorpromazine, which becomes known as Largactil or Mighty Drug in Europe and Thorazine here, it becomes known as a major tranquilizer because it has this tranquilizing effect. The hospitals see it as a boon because it’ll help control the patients. They’re not yet thinking of it as more than that. So that’s the accidental way it’s discovered. It comes to North America via Quebec,- ….where there’s a psychiatrist up there, Heinz Lehmann, who actually works in the Protestant Hospital. Québec in those days is dominated by its Anglo-speaking elite who oppressed the, the French Canadians pretty mightily. But because of the French connection, he gets amounts of the drug.-
And this is why in the early stages Chlorpromazine, which becomes known as Largactil or Mighty Drug in Europe and Thorazine here, it becomes known as a major tranquilizer because it has this tranquilizing effect. The hospitals see it as a boon because it’ll help control the patients. They’re not yet thinking of it as more than that. So that’s the accidental way it’s discovered. It comes to North America via Quebec,- ….where there’s a psychiatrist up there, Heinz Lehmann, who actually works in the Protestant Hospital. Québec in those days is dominated by its Anglo-speaking elite who oppressed the, the French Canadians pretty mightily. But because of the French connection, he gets amounts of the drug.-
Andrew Scull
Rhône-Poulenc has had to sell the rights to an American company. In those days, American physicians don’t trust European science or European medicine- … especially European medicine. So Rhône-Poulenc sells the rights. The first two drug companies it approaches say, “No thank you. This doesn’t look very interesting to us. I don’t think there’s much of a market.” And then SmithKline & French buys it up and within two years, two million people are taking this drug. It’s a bonanza for them right? Not an accident ’cause they put their best salesman on the job of selling this and they realize the hospital psychiatrists mostly aren’t interested. They haven’t yet gotten to this idea of a chemical cure or a chemical treatment.
Rhône-Poulenc has had to sell the rights to an American company. In those days, American physicians don’t trust European science or European medicine- … especially European medicine. So Rhône-Poulenc sells the rights. The first two drug companies it approaches say, “No thank you. This doesn’t look very interesting to us. I don’t think there’s much of a market.” And then SmithKline & French buys it up and within two years, two million people are taking this drug. It’s a bonanza for them right? Not an accident ’cause they put their best salesman on the job of selling this and they realize the hospital psychiatrists mostly aren’t interested. They haven’t yet gotten to this idea of a chemical cure or a chemical treatment.
Lex Fridman
So it’s the companies that wake up to this?
So it’s the companies that wake up to this?
Andrew Scull
The companies wake up, they sell it to the politicians. They go to the state legislatures. They have moving pictures of an agitated patient who turns calm, you know.
The companies wake up, they sell it to the politicians. They go to the state legislatures. They have moving pictures of an agitated patient who turns calm, you know.
Lex Fridman
So this is already the mechanism of big pharma?
So this is already the mechanism of big pharma?
Andrew Scull
Yeah. So it’s starting to be big pharma. It transforms SmithKline & French from a small operator into a big company, and then of course once that’s successful, it turns out that chlorpromazine can be easily tweaked as a molecule, and so copycat drugs emerge on the scene. So this happens in America in 1954. The following year in 1955 we get the so-called minor tranquilizers being invented and brought to market.
Yeah. So it’s starting to be big pharma. It transforms SmithKline & French from a small operator into a big company, and then of course once that’s successful, it turns out that chlorpromazine can be easily tweaked as a molecule, and so copycat drugs emerge on the scene. So this happens in America in 1954. The following year in 1955 we get the so-called minor tranquilizers being invented and brought to market.
Lex Fridman
This is Miltown.
This is Miltown.
Andrew Scull
Yeah, this is Miltown heavily promoted by the first major television star of the mid-’50s, Milton Berle, who calls himself Unc- Uncle Miltown and promotes the drug heavily on his show.
Yeah, this is Miltown heavily promoted by the first major television star of the mid-’50s, Milton Berle, who calls himself Unc- Uncle Miltown and promotes the drug heavily on his show.
Lex Fridman
So these are mostly like tranquilizer type of effects?
So these are mostly like tranquilizer type of effects?
Andrew Scull
Those work really– They’re muscle relaxant types of things, and later on in the ’60s we get Valium and Librium coming on adding to or re-and replacing those first generation drugs. So you have major tranquilizers, minor tranquilizers. Minor tranquilizers and guess what? The Freudians don’t want really anything to do with these drugs.
Those work really– They’re muscle relaxant types of things, and later on in the ’60s we get Valium and Librium coming on adding to or re-and replacing those first generation drugs. So you have major tranquilizers, minor tranquilizers. Minor tranquilizers and guess what? The Freudians don’t want really anything to do with these drugs.
Lex Fridman
Right. Of course.
Right. Of course.
Andrew Scull
The hospital psychiatrist wants to wake up to the usefulness of Thorazine and its analogues do start using the drugs a lot and that’s really important, and in the early ’60s, they changed their name. Instead of being major tranquilizers, they become antipsychotics. So that suggests they actually attack the underlying psychosis.
The hospital psychiatrist wants to wake up to the usefulness of Thorazine and its analogues do start using the drugs a lot and that’s really important, and in the early ’60s, they changed their name. Instead of being major tranquilizers, they become antipsychotics. So that suggests they actually attack the underlying psychosis.
Lex Fridman
Is there any evidence of that for them?
Is there any evidence of that for them?
Andrew Scull
They do change the forms of psychosis in important ways, some good and some they fail to attack. So they reduce the agitation, they reduce the delusions and the hallucinations, the things psychiatrists call the positive symptoms of schizophrenia, those, those they help with for not every patient, but for a significant number of patients, and they’re very — That’s very important.
They do change the forms of psychosis in important ways, some good and some they fail to attack. So they reduce the agitation, they reduce the delusions and the hallucinations, the things psychiatrists call the positive symptoms of schizophrenia, those, those they help with for not every patient, but for a significant number of patients, and they’re very — That’s very important.
Lex Fridman
Why are they called the positive?
Why are they called the positive?
Andrew Scull
The positive symptoms activate things. They activate the hallucinations and the delusions. Those are changing, and they’re visible usually because if somebody’s deluded or hallucinating, you know about it pretty quickly- ….right? The negative symptoms are things like apathy, loss of ability to interact with people, poverty of language, lack of initiative. All of those things are devastating.
The positive symptoms activate things. They activate the hallucinations and the delusions. Those are changing, and they’re visible usually because if somebody’s deluded or hallucinating, you know about it pretty quickly- ….right? The negative symptoms are things like apathy, loss of ability to interact with people, poverty of language, lack of initiative. All of those things are devastating.
Lex Fridman
Just to state out loud and clear that both positive and negative affects so-called by psychologists of schizophrenia are both devastating and both negative.
Just to state out loud and clear that both positive and negative affects so-called by psychologists of schizophrenia are both devastating and both negative.
Andrew Scull
Yes, yes. I think that’s right.
Yes, yes. I think that’s right.
Lex Fridman
In the common parlance of what negative means.
In the common parlance of what negative means.
Andrew Scull
It’s a very strange choice of language, but it’s been there for a long time, so it’s embedded. Now, to the extent antipsychotics work, they work on the positive symptoms. They either dull them down so you’re still hallucinating a bit and you’re still delusional, but it’s not– it’s very much less, and you are you’re somewhat pacified. You’re less overtly disturbed. But the negative side of things, not so much or not at all. Then on top of that, the drugs work for some people and they don’t work for others, and a significant number of psychotic patients are non-drug responders, just as a significant number of people with depression are not responsive to antidepressants.
It’s a very strange choice of language, but it’s been there for a long time, so it’s embedded. Now, to the extent antipsychotics work, they work on the positive symptoms. They either dull them down so you’re still hallucinating a bit and you’re still delusional, but it’s not– it’s very much less, and you are you’re somewhat pacified. You’re less overtly disturbed. But the negative side of things, not so much or not at all. Then on top of that, the drugs work for some people and they don’t work for others, and a significant number of psychotic patients are non-drug responders, just as a significant number of people with depression are not responsive to antidepressants.
Andrew Scull
Moreover, initially in the enthusiasm for these drugs everybody neglects the fact that they have serious side effects, or many of them argue the side effects are an essential part of the treatment and you just have to put up with it. So what are we talking about when I say there are nasty side effects? Well, among others, you may become incurably restless. So you’re constantly in motion, you’re moving around, you’re never, never still. If you’re in the presence of somebody like that, it becomes unbearable after a fairly short while, and it’s unbearable often to the person who can’t control it. Other patients develop Parkinson’s disease symptoms.
Moreover, initially in the enthusiasm for these drugs everybody neglects the fact that they have serious side effects, or many of them argue the side effects are an essential part of the treatment and you just have to put up with it. So what are we talking about when I say there are nasty side effects? Well, among others, you may become incurably restless. So you’re constantly in motion, you’re moving around, you’re never, never still. If you’re in the presence of somebody like that, it becomes unbearable after a fairly short while, and it’s unbearable often to the person who can’t control it. Other patients develop Parkinson’s disease symptoms.
Andrew Scull
Is an awful affliction which unfortunately affects a significant number of people each year, and we don’t have– We have through L-DOPA a means to delay its impact, but eventually that loses its efficacy and unfortunately we don’t have a cure. So you have those. And then perhaps the nastiest is what’s called tardive dyskinesia. Tardive because it’s late developing, it doesn’t happen right away, and dyskinesia because what it involves is jerky uncontrolled movements of the body and particularly of the facial muscles. So your tongue will protrude, you’ll make strange noises, you’ll twitch, you’ll stagger about walking. If somebody like that is walking down the street towards you, you will think there’s a mentally ill person and you’ll cross to the other side of the street.
Is an awful affliction which unfortunately affects a significant number of people each year, and we don’t have– We have through L-DOPA a means to delay its impact, but eventually that loses its efficacy and unfortunately we don’t have a cure. So you have those. And then perhaps the nastiest is what’s called tardive dyskinesia. Tardive because it’s late developing, it doesn’t happen right away, and dyskinesia because what it involves is jerky uncontrolled movements of the body and particularly of the facial muscles. So your tongue will protrude, you’ll make strange noises, you’ll twitch, you’ll stagger about walking. If somebody like that is walking down the street towards you, you will think there’s a mentally ill person and you’ll cross to the other side of the street.
Andrew Scull
And yes, they probably are a mentally ill person but what you’re seeing is the iatrogenic effects of the drugs they’re on. Okay? So that problem was ignored for about 20 years. Paper appeared in Science by George Crane, a Maryland psychiatrist, in which he said, “We as a profession have been ignoring this terrible problem.” Yes, the drugs do some good, but they’re also creating a lot of harm, and we need to focus more on that. And it took a few years, but by the ’80s, I think the American Psychiatric Association was very worried by that problem. And the drug companies were kind of worried about it but didn’t have any obvious solution till towards the end of the ’80s something happened.
And yes, they probably are a mentally ill person but what you’re seeing is the iatrogenic effects of the drugs they’re on. Okay? So that problem was ignored for about 20 years. Paper appeared in Science by George Crane, a Maryland psychiatrist, in which he said, “We as a profession have been ignoring this terrible problem.” Yes, the drugs do some good, but they’re also creating a lot of harm, and we need to focus more on that. And it took a few years, but by the ’80s, I think the American Psychiatric Association was very worried by that problem. And the drug companies were kind of worried about it but didn’t have any obvious solution till towards the end of the ’80s something happened.
Andrew Scull
Nineteen fifty-seven, when the people were developing copycat versions of Thorazine, clozapine was developed by a small company which was subsequently bought up by a bigger company and introduced in Europe. It never came to America because of two things. First, it tended not to produce tardive dyskinesia, and at that time many in the profession thought if you didn’t get those symptoms you weren’t attacking the problem. Bizarre, right?
Nineteen fifty-seven, when the people were developing copycat versions of Thorazine, clozapine was developed by a small company which was subsequently bought up by a bigger company and introduced in Europe. It never came to America because of two things. First, it tended not to produce tardive dyskinesia, and at that time many in the profession thought if you didn’t get those symptoms you weren’t attacking the problem. Bizarre, right?
Andrew Scull
Secondly in a significant number of patients it destroyed their– the patient’s white blood cells and they died. Okay? Not, not a good outcome. So it was quickly withdrawn from the market, and it never made it to this side of the Atlantic. However as this tardive dyskinesia problem became more acute there was an attempt to revive clozapine, and it tends to… It turns out it tends to work better in treatment resistant cases, meaning cases don’t respond to the other antipsychotics that we have. And it could be revived but at the cost of weekly blood checks ’cause you had to be very careful if it– if your white blood cells count started to drop, you had to stop.
Secondly in a significant number of patients it destroyed their– the patient’s white blood cells and they died. Okay? Not, not a good outcome. So it was quickly withdrawn from the market, and it never made it to this side of the Atlantic. However as this tardive dyskinesia problem became more acute there was an attempt to revive clozapine, and it tends to… It turns out it tends to work better in treatment resistant cases, meaning cases don’t respond to the other antipsychotics that we have. And it could be revived but at the cost of weekly blood checks ’cause you had to be very careful if it– if your white blood cells count started to drop, you had to stop.
Andrew Scull
Right? So it came to market in the late ’80s, and very quickly other drug companies tried to find other compounds actually chemically not related to it, but that’s hardly the point. The whole class of drugs became known as second generation antipsychotics.
Right? So it came to market in the late ’80s, and very quickly other drug companies tried to find other compounds actually chemically not related to it, but that’s hardly the point. The whole class of drugs became known as second generation antipsychotics.
Lex Fridman
So Clozapine, Risperdal-
So Clozapine, Risperdal-
Andrew Scull
Yes, those kinds of ones
Yes, those kinds of ones
Lex Fridman
Zyprexa.
Zyprexa.
Andrew Scull
Zyprexa among others.
Zyprexa among others.
Lex Fridman
Zyprexa.
Zyprexa.
Andrew Scull
Yes. And so there were a number of these, and they have actually — Because they are chemically quite different from each other, but they’re classed together in the public mind and – …in the professional mind. They tend to have different side effect profiles and slightly different modes of action and differing levels of efficacy, I think.
Yes. And so there were a number of these, and they have actually — Because they are chemically quite different from each other, but they’re classed together in the public mind and – …in the professional mind. They tend to have different side effect profiles and slightly different modes of action and differing levels of efficacy, I think.
Lex Fridman
Of course, there’s not a real, at that time or even now, a real science of like when you have a human come to you, what is the actual protocol of how you figure out which to give.
Of course, there’s not a real, at that time or even now, a real science of like when you have a human come to you, what is the actual protocol of how you figure out which to give.
Andrew Scull
Right. So in 2005 most of the– I should say once the Drugs Revolution came along increasingly the studies were funded by the drug companies who owned the data and controlled the data- …and only released what they chose to release, what was helpful for them and not what wasn’t.
Right. So in 2005 most of the– I should say once the Drugs Revolution came along increasingly the studies were funded by the drug companies who owned the data and controlled the data- …and only released what they chose to release, what was helpful for them and not what wasn’t.
Lex Fridman
And they were heavily marketing stuff.
And they were heavily marketing stuff.
Andrew Scull
Oh yeah, very heavily mar– And then to get FDA approval of efficacy and safety you needed two trials. You might have conducted 15 trials and 13 of them had been failures but if you had two that worked, that was enough. That’s what you needed. That was the gold standard. So 2005 National Institutes of Mental Health funds this drug study, not an industry study, and what it wants to look at, the first generation drugs are now out of patent and they’re cheap. The second generation are patented and are quite expensive, ten times as expensive in some cases. So we do something called the CATIE Study, and it’s published in the New England Journal of Medicine. And there are two interesting findings.
Oh yeah, very heavily mar– And then to get FDA approval of efficacy and safety you needed two trials. You might have conducted 15 trials and 13 of them had been failures but if you had two that worked, that was enough. That’s what you needed. That was the gold standard. So 2005 National Institutes of Mental Health funds this drug study, not an industry study, and what it wants to look at, the first generation drugs are now out of patent and they’re cheap. The second generation are patented and are quite expensive, ten times as expensive in some cases. So we do something called the CATIE Study, and it’s published in the New England Journal of Medicine. And there are two interesting findings.
Andrew Scull
So you have one first generation antipsychotic, one of those very early drugs, and you have four more recent drugs that you’re looking at.
So you have one first generation antipsychotic, one of those very early drugs, and you have four more recent drugs that you’re looking at.
Andrew Scull
And you ask a number of questions. Are the new drugs more efficacious than the old drug? No. Hmm. Were patients willing to tolerate these drugs? And that was a finding that I thought was much underreported at the time. Between 67% and 82% of the patients, depending on which drug they were on, dropped out of the trial because either the drug wasn’t working or they couldn’t stand the side effects. So that tells you, these are our best drugs, you know, there are real complications here. And then as we delve further into it, do they have nasty side effects? Well, less tardive dyskinesia somewhat, but a whole new set of side effects. If you take these pills, you will gain in most cases a lot of weight—10, 20, 30, 40 pounds, 50 pounds. What does that do?
And you ask a number of questions. Are the new drugs more efficacious than the old drug? No. Hmm. Were patients willing to tolerate these drugs? And that was a finding that I thought was much underreported at the time. Between 67% and 82% of the patients, depending on which drug they were on, dropped out of the trial because either the drug wasn’t working or they couldn’t stand the side effects. So that tells you, these are our best drugs, you know, there are real complications here. And then as we delve further into it, do they have nasty side effects? Well, less tardive dyskinesia somewhat, but a whole new set of side effects. If you take these pills, you will gain in most cases a lot of weight—10, 20, 30, 40 pounds, 50 pounds. What does that do?
Andrew Scull
That gives you metabolic syndrome; it gives you diabetes; it gives you heart trouble. So important to state when we’re looking at this ’cause there is no– There is no free lunch with medicine. If you take an aspirin, it may cause your stomach to bleed sometimes enough to really put you in serious jeopardy. Most of the time it’s fine. Everything… Every drug that’s brought to market has the main effect we’re looking, looking for and some side effects which may be minimal for most people but for some people maybe worse than that. So we’ve got to– It’s one of these cost benefit analysis, right? You- …You’re getting some relief from your psychiatric symptoms but you’re courting these other dangers that may or may not arise and going in we don’t know where you’re gonna fall.
That gives you metabolic syndrome; it gives you diabetes; it gives you heart trouble. So important to state when we’re looking at this ’cause there is no– There is no free lunch with medicine. If you take an aspirin, it may cause your stomach to bleed sometimes enough to really put you in serious jeopardy. Most of the time it’s fine. Everything… Every drug that’s brought to market has the main effect we’re looking, looking for and some side effects which may be minimal for most people but for some people maybe worse than that. So we’ve got to– It’s one of these cost benefit analysis, right? You- …You’re getting some relief from your psychiatric symptoms but you’re courting these other dangers that may or may not arise and going in we don’t know where you’re gonna fall.
Andrew Scull
We don’t know trial and error.
We don’t know trial and error.
Lex Fridman
You mean every individual that walks into the picture, they don’t know where on distribution they fall?
You mean every individual that walks into the picture, they don’t know where on distribution they fall?
Andrew Scull
Right. And we have no biological markers at the moment that would tell us. One or two of my friends in the um, psychiatric genetics industry uh if that’s the right term for it, but you know, in that research area are saying, “Well, we haven’t done very well to find the genetic roots of mental illness, but maybe we can learn to distinguish which patients are gonna respond well to drugs and which shouldn’t be given them because they’re not going to.” Um, that’s a promissory note. It’s not something that they actually can do now.
Right. And we have no biological markers at the moment that would tell us. One or two of my friends in the um, psychiatric genetics industry uh if that’s the right term for it, but you know, in that research area are saying, “Well, we haven’t done very well to find the genetic roots of mental illness, but maybe we can learn to distinguish which patients are gonna respond well to drugs and which shouldn’t be given them because they’re not going to.” Um, that’s a promissory note. It’s not something that they actually can do now.
Andrew Scull
It’s just we hope we’ll be able to do this, and I hope they’re able to do it, too. But, you know, you can’t have an enormous amount of confidence in that. Maybe it’ll happen, or maybe some other mechanism will emerge that allows us to see who the responders and nonresponders are. Who’s gonna suffer the worst side effects if they’re put on these medications? And the side effects do vary, so um though a lot of what I’ve described is common to this class of drugs.
It’s just we hope we’ll be able to do this, and I hope they’re able to do it, too. But, you know, you can’t have an enormous amount of confidence in that. Maybe it’ll happen, or maybe some other mechanism will emerge that allows us to see who the responders and nonresponders are. Who’s gonna suffer the worst side effects if they’re put on these medications? And the side effects do vary, so um though a lot of what I’ve described is common to this class of drugs.
Lex Fridman
And sometimes it’s hard to describe the side effect. You’re talking about the human mind. Yeah, yeah. So describing the side effects, it’s not like bleeding or like diarrhea or-
And sometimes it’s hard to describe the side effect. You’re talking about the human mind. Yeah, yeah. So describing the side effects, it’s not like bleeding or like diarrhea or-
Andrew Scull
Well, yeah.
Well, yeah.
Lex Fridman
Weight gain, that’s describable, but like the effect on your personality.
Weight gain, that’s describable, but like the effect on your personality.
Andrew Scull
Yep, that’s much harder, much harder. People, you know, some of the patients who drop out, drop out because they find the richness of their mental life is completely gone and they don’t want to tolerate that. They’d sooner tolerate some hallucinations. That’s a hard one.
Yep, that’s much harder, much harder. People, you know, some of the patients who drop out, drop out because they find the richness of their mental life is completely gone and they don’t want to tolerate that. They’d sooner tolerate some hallucinations. That’s a hard one.
Antidepressants
Lex Fridman
So there’s a that that picture the SSRIs that also came to be Prozac, Zoloft, Paxil during that time. Yes, Paxil, all of that. Well again, they’re the second generation of antidepressants. Mm-hmm. So that’s a complicated story. Again, it’s an accident. They’re at treating patients with advanced tuberculosis in the 1950s. Now that’s a very unpleasant thing that’s also gonna kill you. So, tuberculosis. Very advanced cases. You’re coughing your lungs up. You’re depressed as all get out. And here we have two new drugs, Iproniazid, we can use that maybe will treat the condition. When you give it to the patients and these depressed tuberculosis patients start acting happy, dancing about, their mood changes. Bingo! We’ve got something that maybe we can use over here to treat depression. However, the drug companies in circa 1960 think of depression as a small market because what they’re talking
So there’s a that that picture the SSRIs that also came to be Prozac, Zoloft, Paxil during that time. Yes, Paxil, all of that. Well again, they’re the second generation of antidepressants. Mm-hmm. So that’s a complicated story. Again, it’s an accident. They’re at treating patients with advanced tuberculosis in the 1950s. Now that’s a very unpleasant thing that’s also gonna kill you. So, tuberculosis. Very advanced cases. You’re coughing your lungs up. You’re depressed as all get out. And here we have two new drugs, Iproniazid, we can use that maybe will treat the condition. When you give it to the patients and these depressed tuberculosis patients start acting happy, dancing about, their mood changes. Bingo! We’ve got something that maybe we can use over here to treat depression. However, the drug companies in circa 1960 think of depression as a small market because what they’re talking
Lex Fridman
about is the kind of melancholic psychotic depressions that leads people into the mental hospital. And that’s not an insignificant group, but it’s not a huge group. So, it’s really much later on that things begin to change. Right now, it’s fair to say depression is the common cold of psychiatry. It’s, you know, it’s abundant there. The depressive diagnosis probably the most commonly given among psychiatrists. So, part of that is a deeper understanding of the human mind, and a big part of that is probably the drug companies convincing the world.
about is the kind of melancholic psychotic depressions that leads people into the mental hospital. And that’s not an insignificant group, but it’s not a huge group. So, it’s really much later on that things begin to change. Right now, it’s fair to say depression is the common cold of psychiatry. It’s, you know, it’s abundant there. The depressive diagnosis probably the most commonly given among psychiatrists. So, part of that is a deeper understanding of the human mind, and a big part of that is probably the drug companies convincing the world.
Andrew Scull
Well, its transforming, yes. So there were big disputes, for example, when DSM-5 was being contemplated, about whether grief, bereavement would count as a mental disorder, as count as a form of depression. If you lose a parent, if you lose, even worse, a child, um, it’s a deeply, how can I put it, deeply upsetting? Yes. Some psychiatrists say yes and some no, but it’s an example of what happens in psychiatry repeatedly, what I would call diagnostic creep, which is a term actually an Australian named Nick Haslam came up with. But it’s a phenomenon I described before that. You start with a core of unambiguous deviations from the norm that are so serious that any competent member of the culture knows that’s that.
Well, its transforming, yes. So there were big disputes, for example, when DSM-5 was being contemplated, about whether grief, bereavement would count as a mental disorder, as count as a form of depression. If you lose a parent, if you lose, even worse, a child, um, it’s a deeply, how can I put it, deeply upsetting? Yes. Some psychiatrists say yes and some no, but it’s an example of what happens in psychiatry repeatedly, what I would call diagnostic creep, which is a term actually an Australian named Nick Haslam came up with. But it’s a phenomenon I described before that. You start with a core of unambiguous deviations from the norm that are so serious that any competent member of the culture knows that’s that.
Andrew Scull
But then it– you begin to say, “Well, there’s this penumbra,” you see, and just outside that core, there are people who are also disturbed, not perhaps as sufficiently disturbed that you actually recognize it, but it’s happening. And so that has tended to happen over and over again. Parents with an autistic child won’t necessarily agree with what I’m about to say, but the chief editor of DSM-IV, Allen Frances, is convinced the huge increase in the number of diagnoses of autism is more driven by the fact he loosened the criteria for the diagnosis than it is because there are more actual cases. Autism used to be a fairly rare phenomenon, and now sadly it’s a very broad one.
But then it– you begin to say, “Well, there’s this penumbra,” you see, and just outside that core, there are people who are also disturbed, not perhaps as sufficiently disturbed that you actually recognize it, but it’s happening. And so that has tended to happen over and over again. Parents with an autistic child won’t necessarily agree with what I’m about to say, but the chief editor of DSM-IV, Allen Frances, is convinced the huge increase in the number of diagnoses of autism is more driven by the fact he loosened the criteria for the diagnosis than it is because there are more actual cases. Autism used to be a fairly rare phenomenon, and now sadly it’s a very broad one.
Andrew Scull
And I understand why parents react very negatively to that because the diagnosis is the key to all sorts of social supports and educational supports and all the rest, and they’re dealing with a child who is extremely difficult. But there is a real difference between the most severe forms of autism where people lose capacity to speak and very often any ability to interact with other people and so forth, and the other cases that are of a still serious but milder sort. Diagnostic creep is not driven just by psychiatric imperialism, the desire for more territory, more patients. It’s driven as well by patients and people and they resist it being pushed back very often. So families have formed organizations like NAMI, but those aren’t the mentally ill.
And I understand why parents react very negatively to that because the diagnosis is the key to all sorts of social supports and educational supports and all the rest, and they’re dealing with a child who is extremely difficult. But there is a real difference between the most severe forms of autism where people lose capacity to speak and very often any ability to interact with other people and so forth, and the other cases that are of a still serious but milder sort. Diagnostic creep is not driven just by psychiatric imperialism, the desire for more territory, more patients. It’s driven as well by patients and people and they resist it being pushed back very often. So families have formed organizations like NAMI, but those aren’t the mentally ill.
Andrew Scull
Those are the family members of the mentally ill, and there are differences in the perspectives and the interests of the family members and the patients- … And that’s easy to forget.
Those are the family members of the mentally ill, and there are differences in the perspectives and the interests of the family members and the patients- … And that’s easy to forget.
Lex Fridman
I think one of the things you talk about is I mean, the quote you had was use the word madness. But that madness or mental health maladies, if you’re suffering from them, it’s a deeply lonely experience. And then if you’re around somebody suffering from it, it’s a very social experience.
I think one of the things you talk about is I mean, the quote you had was use the word madness. But that madness or mental health maladies, if you’re suffering from them, it’s a deeply lonely experience. And then if you’re around somebody suffering from it, it’s a very social experience.
Andrew Scull
Yeah. Yeah, this is actually that’s a paraphrase of — I was quoting one of my friends and fellow historians of psychiatry, Michael MacDonald. The most solitary of afflictions for the sufferer and the most social of maladies for those around them. And there’s lots of ways in which you can see that very powerfully, and that’s why I think there are a ton of people who suffer in various ways from mental disturbances of one sort and another. But the effects aren’t confined to them. They extend out to everybody else around them, and that’s really powerful.
Yeah. Yeah, this is actually that’s a paraphrase of — I was quoting one of my friends and fellow historians of psychiatry, Michael MacDonald. The most solitary of afflictions for the sufferer and the most social of maladies for those around them. And there’s lots of ways in which you can see that very powerfully, and that’s why I think there are a ton of people who suffer in various ways from mental disturbances of one sort and another. But the effects aren’t confined to them. They extend out to everybody else around them, and that’s really powerful.
Andrew Scull
So we had this first generation, there were actually two different kinds of antidepressants: MAOIs as they’re called in the trade, and tricyclics which were called tricyclics ’cause they had a third ring of a certain element in their molecule. Those had as I say, a limited market, but also there were complications associated with them that it was easy to overdose and die. And so depressed– giving a depressed patient a bunch of pills that if they took too many of them would kill them was tricky. They also could kill you another way because for example, you couldn’t– certain dietary items, cheese, cured meats, in combination with them were, were very, very health threatening, maybe even fatal.
So we had this first generation, there were actually two different kinds of antidepressants: MAOIs as they’re called in the trade, and tricyclics which were called tricyclics ’cause they had a third ring of a certain element in their molecule. Those had as I say, a limited market, but also there were complications associated with them that it was easy to overdose and die. And so depressed– giving a depressed patient a bunch of pills that if they took too many of them would kill them was tricky. They also could kill you another way because for example, you couldn’t– certain dietary items, cheese, cured meats, in combination with them were, were very, very health threatening, maybe even fatal.
Andrew Scull
Now, in the late ’80s, the drug companies came across a new class of antidepressants that didn’t have those side effects. As we’ll see, they had other side effects, but not those. And the most famous of those was Prozac. There were a class of drugs called SSRIs, and again forgive the acronyms, but what it means is selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. Serotonin is something manufactured in our bodies, actually in our digestive system, and it performs a variety of functions in the body. But it’s also one of the neurotransmitters in our brains. And the way these drugs worked was by slowing the reuptake of serotonin in the brain, which was marketed by the drug companies as the solution to depression.
Now, in the late ’80s, the drug companies came across a new class of antidepressants that didn’t have those side effects. As we’ll see, they had other side effects, but not those. And the most famous of those was Prozac. There were a class of drugs called SSRIs, and again forgive the acronyms, but what it means is selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. Serotonin is something manufactured in our bodies, actually in our digestive system, and it performs a variety of functions in the body. But it’s also one of the neurotransmitters in our brains. And the way these drugs worked was by slowing the reuptake of serotonin in the brain, which was marketed by the drug companies as the solution to depression.
Andrew Scull
That when you got depressed, it was because you didn’t have enough serotonin in your brain, and these pills solved that problem. It was like, well, Tipper Gore, Al Gore’s ex-wife, was like many politicians’ wives, depressed for reasons I fully understand or at least partially understand. And she went to her psychiatrist and that was one of the things she was given, and she became one of the big public advocates for SSRIs which still are the most prescribed antidepressants.
That when you got depressed, it was because you didn’t have enough serotonin in your brain, and these pills solved that problem. It was like, well, Tipper Gore, Al Gore’s ex-wife, was like many politicians’ wives, depressed for reasons I fully understand or at least partially understand. And she went to her psychiatrist and that was one of the things she was given, and she became one of the big public advocates for SSRIs which still are the most prescribed antidepressants.
Lex Fridman
Do they work? And what are the side effects?
Do they work? And what are the side effects?
Andrew Scull
Yeah. So here’s where we get into slippery territory. Every time you do a controlled study of these antidepressants, they beat placebo in a statistically significant margin, but not necessarily in a clinically significant margin. And this is when you see drug ads, be very careful. This one significantly improves X or Y. Does that mean clinically or does it mean statistically? Because the fact– if you — When we measure improvement with depression, we tend to use rating scales of various sorts. And if you improve on one of the major scales that’s used by one or two points on a 60-point scale, it may be enough to show statistical significance. This drugs looks a little better than placebo, but doesn’t really affect your quality of life much.
Yeah. So here’s where we get into slippery territory. Every time you do a controlled study of these antidepressants, they beat placebo in a statistically significant margin, but not necessarily in a clinically significant margin. And this is when you see drug ads, be very careful. This one significantly improves X or Y. Does that mean clinically or does it mean statistically? Because the fact– if you — When we measure improvement with depression, we tend to use rating scales of various sorts. And if you improve on one of the major scales that’s used by one or two points on a 60-point scale, it may be enough to show statistical significance. This drugs looks a little better than placebo, but doesn’t really affect your quality of life much.
Andrew Scull
And for most patients, antidepressants are marginally better than placebo, but a lot of the effect is the placebo effect. And they come with very difficult side effects. A lot of people describe them as numbing drugs. They-
And for most patients, antidepressants are marginally better than placebo, but a lot of the effect is the placebo effect. And they come with very difficult side effects. A lot of people describe them as numbing drugs. They-
Andrew Scull
… flatten everything out so you can’t experience the highs and lows that normally we take as part of human experience. And then the numbing extends elsewhere in your body. In particular, lots of patients find a complete loss of libido. They… They can’t get an erection. They can’t climax if they’re a woman. Their sex life just goes away, and sometimes it doesn’t come back after you stop the drugs. Next layer of problems, getting off the drugs for some people turns out to be hell on wheels. They get worse depression than they had before. They get terrible feelings. That brain is sparking; something’s wrong.
… flatten everything out so you can’t experience the highs and lows that normally we take as part of human experience. And then the numbing extends elsewhere in your body. In particular, lots of patients find a complete loss of libido. They… They can’t get an erection. They can’t climax if they’re a woman. Their sex life just goes away, and sometimes it doesn’t come back after you stop the drugs. Next layer of problems, getting off the drugs for some people turns out to be hell on wheels. They get worse depression than they had before. They get terrible feelings. That brain is sparking; something’s wrong.
Andrew Scull
And so many patients find themselves trapped on those drugs for a long time, and we don’t know what the effects of that are gonna be. So it’s a very mixed picture, you know. That’s why I think groups like NICE in England are saying, “Use CBT as the first line, not drugs.” Um, but again, it’s also fair to say, I think what we find and there was a recent Lancet study that I think was revealing on this point. It’s like this with both antipsychotics and antidepressants. You have a group of people who respond pretty well, and, and the side effects for them are bearable or even they don’t experience them. That’s great. You have a group of people, and it’s significant. With depressed patients, we’re talking 40 or north of forty percent who aren’t responding. Okay?
And so many patients find themselves trapped on those drugs for a long time, and we don’t know what the effects of that are gonna be. So it’s a very mixed picture, you know. That’s why I think groups like NICE in England are saying, “Use CBT as the first line, not drugs.” Um, but again, it’s also fair to say, I think what we find and there was a recent Lancet study that I think was revealing on this point. It’s like this with both antipsychotics and antidepressants. You have a group of people who respond pretty well, and, and the side effects for them are bearable or even they don’t experience them. That’s great. You have a group of people, and it’s significant. With depressed patients, we’re talking 40 or north of forty percent who aren’t responding. Okay?
Andrew Scull
So drugs aren’t doing anything for them, and they’re running a risk. And then in the middle, you have a group of people who get some positive improvement, but they also get side effects, and that’s where, you know, this cost-benefit analysis, if we can call it that, comes into play, and it’s very difficult. And the problem is going in, you don’t know which group you’re gonna fall in. And your, and your doctor doesn’t know which group you’re gonna fall in. And more importantly, one of the things the Drugs Revolution did was it moved the diagnosis and the prescribing of things away from psychiatry alone, so many of these things, particularly antidepressants, are dispensed by primary care docs, not, not psychiatrists.
So drugs aren’t doing anything for them, and they’re running a risk. And then in the middle, you have a group of people who get some positive improvement, but they also get side effects, and that’s where, you know, this cost-benefit analysis, if we can call it that, comes into play, and it’s very difficult. And the problem is going in, you don’t know which group you’re gonna fall in. And your, and your doctor doesn’t know which group you’re gonna fall in. And more importantly, one of the things the Drugs Revolution did was it moved the diagnosis and the prescribing of things away from psychiatry alone, so many of these things, particularly antidepressants, are dispensed by primary care docs, not, not psychiatrists.
Future of Psychiatry
Lex Fridman
Let’s zoom out. We did say that there’s a real crisis. From an individual perspective suffering from psychosis or suffering from depression- … What are you supposed to do? What works, and what is the hope for the future in the next ten, twenty out?
Let’s zoom out. We did say that there’s a real crisis. From an individual perspective suffering from psychosis or suffering from depression- … What are you supposed to do? What works, and what is the hope for the future in the next ten, twenty out?
Andrew Scull
So you probably need to try the drugs because the suffering is very intense. But you need to be aware of things, and you need a clinician who’s monitoring very carefully. More generally, psychiatric research needs to broaden. We have spent all our monies on drugs, on neuroscience, and on genetics, but there are other things we could do that would improve the lives of families and patients more immediately. So we need to spend some time on the psychosocial dimensions of mental illness and to allow psychiatrists to build careers in those fields. One of the problems if you’re an academic psychiatrist, your whole future is dependent on you bringing in grant monies, and there aren’t grant monies available to study: Are there better ways we could cope with the problem of homelessness?
So you probably need to try the drugs because the suffering is very intense. But you need to be aware of things, and you need a clinician who’s monitoring very carefully. More generally, psychiatric research needs to broaden. We have spent all our monies on drugs, on neuroscience, and on genetics, but there are other things we could do that would improve the lives of families and patients more immediately. So we need to spend some time on the psychosocial dimensions of mental illness and to allow psychiatrists to build careers in those fields. One of the problems if you’re an academic psychiatrist, your whole future is dependent on you bringing in grant monies, and there aren’t grant monies available to study: Are there better ways we could cope with the problem of homelessness?
Andrew Scull
Are there better ways we could make f– ease the problem for families who are having to cope with somebody in their midst who’s hallucinating? That sort of thing, I think, would help.
Are there better ways we could make f– ease the problem for families who are having to cope with somebody in their midst who’s hallucinating? That sort of thing, I think, would help.
Lex Fridman
What about talk therapy on both the CBT, cognitive behavioral therapy, and psychoanalysis? We left psychoanalysis in this place where society left it behind.
What about talk therapy on both the CBT, cognitive behavioral therapy, and psychoanalysis? We left psychoanalysis in this place where society left it behind.
Andrew Scull
I think it’s become a niche product now. Only, only the very wealthy can afford to do it, and some of them indeed do make use of it, and some of them claim that it helps them.
I think it’s become a niche product now. Only, only the very wealthy can afford to do it, and some of them indeed do make use of it, and some of them claim that it helps them.
Lex Fridman
Oh, do you think there’s future in it? I will add an extra– I would add an extra bit to that.
Oh, do you think there’s future in it? I will add an extra– I would add an extra bit to that.
Andrew Scull
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Carefully is with the advent and the rapid improvement of artificial intelligence systems- …that are able to communicate with individual humans and learn a lot about them, and have a conversation about the deepest secrets that you sometimes actually would even be uncomfortable telling even a therapist. That starts to go into the realm of Freud and Jung and psychoanalysis.
Carefully is with the advent and the rapid improvement of artificial intelligence systems- …that are able to communicate with individual humans and learn a lot about them, and have a conversation about the deepest secrets that you sometimes actually would even be uncomfortable telling even a therapist. That starts to go into the realm of Freud and Jung and psychoanalysis.
Andrew Scull
Well, yes, and we did see actually COVID with the isolation that it produced and the fact people couldn’t go to their therapists directly. We did see the rise of some of this distant learning of this, and some of it may indeed be mechanizable in the way you described. It’s very important that psychiatrists broaden their perspective on these things, and some already have. I think public policy is in a mess when it comes to serious mental illness, but I’m pessimistic about fixing that ’cause it would cost bunches of money. If we were talking about something where we could cure people, transform them from, as they used to say, tax eaters to taxpayers, there’d be incentive to do it. But the honest answer is right now that’s not where we are. And so we face dilemmas.
Well, yes, and we did see actually COVID with the isolation that it produced and the fact people couldn’t go to their therapists directly. We did see the rise of some of this distant learning of this, and some of it may indeed be mechanizable in the way you described. It’s very important that psychiatrists broaden their perspective on these things, and some already have. I think public policy is in a mess when it comes to serious mental illness, but I’m pessimistic about fixing that ’cause it would cost bunches of money. If we were talking about something where we could cure people, transform them from, as they used to say, tax eaters to taxpayers, there’d be incentive to do it. But the honest answer is right now that’s not where we are. And so we face dilemmas.
Andrew Scull
I think helping people as much as we can with social supports –And, you know, social interaction is tremendously important to people’s mental health. If they lack it, if they’re lonely, if they’re isolated, it does bad things to people. So somehow providing that kind of support, providing some sense of agency to people who often lack it would be very helpful. I hope somebody has a breakthrough and produces a better drug because unlike some people, I would be astonished if the major forms of mental illness didn’t have a biological component to them.
I think helping people as much as we can with social supports –And, you know, social interaction is tremendously important to people’s mental health. If they lack it, if they’re lonely, if they’re isolated, it does bad things to people. So somehow providing that kind of support, providing some sense of agency to people who often lack it would be very helpful. I hope somebody has a breakthrough and produces a better drug because unlike some people, I would be astonished if the major forms of mental illness didn’t have a biological component to them.
Andrew Scull
I don’t think that’s ever gonna be the whole story, but it’s going to be an important part of the story, and therefore, you know, the fact that major drug companies have abandoned research in this area, they’ve been bad actors in many ways, but the drugs have had some positive effects, and the fact that there’s no research being done by the people with the most money to develop better treatments is, well, one word for it would be depressing. You know? That’s not what we wanna see.
I don’t think that’s ever gonna be the whole story, but it’s going to be an important part of the story, and therefore, you know, the fact that major drug companies have abandoned research in this area, they’ve been bad actors in many ways, but the drugs have had some positive effects, and the fact that there’s no research being done by the people with the most money to develop better treatments is, well, one word for it would be depressing. You know? That’s not what we wanna see.
Lex Fridman
So the path forward is a mix- ….of continued research on drugs, but from a patient perspective, extreme caution in use of those drugs. Talk therapy, whether it’s CBT or psychoanalysis, further investigation research on that front. Then the psychosocial component of social family- …..people around you, less loneliness, investigating how from a cultural social perspective and from a public policy perspective, can we increase the amount of social connections that people who suffer have and all of that together?
So the path forward is a mix- ….of continued research on drugs, but from a patient perspective, extreme caution in use of those drugs. Talk therapy, whether it’s CBT or psychoanalysis, further investigation research on that front. Then the psychosocial component of social family- …..people around you, less loneliness, investigating how from a cultural social perspective and from a public policy perspective, can we increase the amount of social connections that people who suffer have and all of that together?
Andrew Scull
Yes. And breakthrough with people who have a very hard time making those connections or who’ve lost the ability to make them.
Yes. And breakthrough with people who have a very hard time making those connections or who’ve lost the ability to make them.
Lex Fridman
If we can zoom out, looking back at this rich history of human beings, and we did look at the darkness, but I think there’s a very large number of people that want to help those who suffer. So looking at the history of people trying to figure out- ……how to help those who suffer, what gives you hope about our future? A real hope for the future of psychiatry that we can actually help people who suffer.
If we can zoom out, looking back at this rich history of human beings, and we did look at the darkness, but I think there’s a very large number of people that want to help those who suffer. So looking at the history of people trying to figure out- ……how to help those who suffer, what gives you hope about our future? A real hope for the future of psychiatry that we can actually help people who suffer.
Andrew Scull
Well, I think we have a profession with many very well-meaning people who see the suffering on a day-to-day, face-to-face basis. And I like to think that among them will be people who move this thing forward. And the fact is we have moved things forward. We have tended to dwell a lot on some of the very unsavory aspects of the past and even some of the drawbacks of what we have available to us in the present. But it is important to see at times highly motivated people have been able to do very good things to help people with these conditions. And there is, I think, hope in the future that we will see more of that than has been the case.
Well, I think we have a profession with many very well-meaning people who see the suffering on a day-to-day, face-to-face basis. And I like to think that among them will be people who move this thing forward. And the fact is we have moved things forward. We have tended to dwell a lot on some of the very unsavory aspects of the past and even some of the drawbacks of what we have available to us in the present. But it is important to see at times highly motivated people have been able to do very good things to help people with these conditions. And there is, I think, hope in the future that we will see more of that than has been the case.
Andrew Scull
And that involves, in some senses, a shift in the mentality of a whole profession in a more caring kinda direction or less technocratic kind of direction, less reliance on something as simple as giving people pills, because that can help, but it’s clearly not gonna be the solution to the whole thing. We need a system that is aware of and catering to the suffering that people experience and finds ways, if they can’t eliminate it entirely, to ameliorate it in ways that people will sense is actually of help to them. It’s a, it’s a very difficult area, this one.
And that involves, in some senses, a shift in the mentality of a whole profession in a more caring kinda direction or less technocratic kind of direction, less reliance on something as simple as giving people pills, because that can help, but it’s clearly not gonna be the solution to the whole thing. We need a system that is aware of and catering to the suffering that people experience and finds ways, if they can’t eliminate it entirely, to ameliorate it in ways that people will sense is actually of help to them. It’s a, it’s a very difficult area, this one.
Andrew Scull
It’s one that touches some of the most profound aspects of ourselves as human beings, and I think as difficult as this problem is, it’s very important not to be cynical. Not to give up hope, not to deny the possibility of progress, because that’s always there. And has happened, and I hope will happen with increasing pace in the years ahead of us.
It’s one that touches some of the most profound aspects of ourselves as human beings, and I think as difficult as this problem is, it’s very important not to be cynical. Not to give up hope, not to deny the possibility of progress, because that’s always there. And has happened, and I hope will happen with increasing pace in the years ahead of us.
Lex Fridman
And if you’re listening to these words and you’re right now in this moment of your life where you yourself are suffering, please know we’re with you. We’re in this together. Stay strong. There’s hope, legitimately, as one human to another. I love you, brother, sister. If you’re listening to this, stay strong. Andrew, thank you for this incredible work of history that you do. Incredible work of raising awareness, stepping into a difficult topic, and trying to find the wisdom, the insights in it. And thank you for this incredible conversation today.
And if you’re listening to these words and you’re right now in this moment of your life where you yourself are suffering, please know we’re with you. We’re in this together. Stay strong. There’s hope, legitimately, as one human to another. I love you, brother, sister. If you’re listening to this, stay strong. Andrew, thank you for this incredible work of history that you do. Incredible work of raising awareness, stepping into a difficult topic, and trying to find the wisdom, the insights in it. And thank you for this incredible conversation today.
Andrew Scull
Lex, thank you for having me, and I felt you were remarkably prepared to push me in various directions. So you’d obviously done a lot of preparation to get, get this in, in the right frame. And I hope that people will get something positive from this conversation along with some of the darkness we’ve inevitably had to talk about.
Lex, thank you for having me, and I felt you were remarkably prepared to push me in various directions. So you’d obviously done a lot of preparation to get, get this in, in the right frame. And I hope that people will get something positive from this conversation along with some of the darkness we’ve inevitably had to talk about.
Lex Fridman
Thank you for listening to this conversation with Andrew Scull. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, let me leave you with some words from Friedrich Nietzsche: “To live is to suffer, to survive is to find meaning in the suffering.” Thank you for listening, and I hope to see you next time.
Thank you for listening to this conversation with Andrew Scull. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, let me leave you with some words from Friedrich Nietzsche: “To live is to suffer, to survive is to find meaning in the suffering.” Thank you for listening, and I hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Tom Brands: Iowa Wrestling | Lex Fridman Podcast #245
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #245 with Tom Brands.
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links
that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is
human generated, and may have errors.
Here are some useful links:
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links
that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is
human generated, and may have errors.
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- Go back to this episode’s main page
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Table of Contents
Here are the loose “chapters” in the conversation.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 2:00 – Motivation
- 16:00 – Mental toughness
- 20:28 – Weight cutting
- 22:16 – Olympic dreams
- 27:11 – 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta
- 30:16 – Brother
- 35:27 – Champion mindset
- 41:28 – Beyond limits
- 46:28 – Faith
- 47:58 – Family
- 52:03 – Brands vs Brands
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Tom Brands, Olympic champion and world champion in freestyle wrestling. Three-time NCAA wrestling champion at University of Iowa, and one of the greatest coaches in the history of wrestling, leading the University of Iowa Hawkeyes for 15 years, including in 2021 winning the national championships and getting a Coach of the Year award, his third. He’s known for his intensity, focus, and mental toughness, embodying both as a wrestler and coach the culture and spirit of Iowa wrestling. We recorded this conversation almost exactly three years ago after I attended the University of Iowa versus Iowa State wrestling meet in the historic Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
The following is a conversation with Tom Brands, Olympic champion and world champion in freestyle wrestling. Three-time NCAA wrestling champion at University of Iowa, and one of the greatest coaches in the history of wrestling, leading the University of Iowa Hawkeyes for 15 years, including in 2021 winning the national championships and getting a Coach of the Year award, his third. He’s known for his intensity, focus, and mental toughness, embodying both as a wrestler and coach the culture and spirit of Iowa wrestling. We recorded this conversation almost exactly three years ago after I attended the University of Iowa versus Iowa State wrestling meet in the historic Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Lex Fridman
Tom graciously invited me to his home where his family, a couple of friends, and me spent several hours chatting about wrestling and life. We recorded this brief podcast conversation that evening, and I wasn’t sure where, how, or whether we’ll publish it. But returning to it now three years later, I realize just how meaningful that evening was for me. And even though I was nervous, didn’t even put on my jacket, it’s a moment I would love to share with others. The mix of intensity and heartfelt kindness from Tom and his family made me want to stay in Iowa forever.
Tom graciously invited me to his home where his family, a couple of friends, and me spent several hours chatting about wrestling and life. We recorded this brief podcast conversation that evening, and I wasn’t sure where, how, or whether we’ll publish it. But returning to it now three years later, I realize just how meaningful that evening was for me. And even though I was nervous, didn’t even put on my jacket, it’s a moment I would love to share with others. The mix of intensity and heartfelt kindness from Tom and his family made me want to stay in Iowa forever.
Lex Fridman
I think I will return there soon enough because of the amazing people there, and because Iowa is still, in many ways, the heart of the indomitable spirit of American wrestling, a sport I love and to which I’m deeply grateful for humbling me early in life and helping me and many others build character through hard work. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, here’s my conversation with Tom Brands.
I think I will return there soon enough because of the amazing people there, and because Iowa is still, in many ways, the heart of the indomitable spirit of American wrestling, a sport I love and to which I’m deeply grateful for humbling me early in life and helping me and many others build character through hard work. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, here’s my conversation with Tom Brands.
Motivation
Lex Fridman
What’s the best motivator for you or for your athletes? Hatred of losing or love of winning?
What’s the best motivator for you or for your athletes? Hatred of losing or love of winning?
Tom Brands
For me personally, it was definitely the hatred of losing. I was not a guy that was about pageantry. I was not a guy that was about the parade. When I wrestled in Atlanta I rented a three-cylinder Geo with my wife, drove home, and mowed the lawn because it hadn’t been mowed for a month. And I remember one of our neighbors driving by, and they were like, they did a double take, like, “Well, that’s– He– I thought he was in Atlanta.” Well, I was in Atlanta yesterday and just sat on the stand and got a gold medal put around my neck. That’s how I was. That doesn’t mean that it was a right approach or the wrong approach. It’s just what worked for me.
For me personally, it was definitely the hatred of losing. I was not a guy that was about pageantry. I was not a guy that was about the parade. When I wrestled in Atlanta I rented a three-cylinder Geo with my wife, drove home, and mowed the lawn because it hadn’t been mowed for a month. And I remember one of our neighbors driving by, and they were like, they did a double take, like, “Well, that’s– He– I thought he was in Atlanta.” Well, I was in Atlanta yesterday and just sat on the stand and got a gold medal put around my neck. That’s how I was. That doesn’t mean that it was a right approach or the wrong approach. It’s just what worked for me.
Lex Fridman
But when you were a kid, you and Terry, you dreamed about winning that Olympic gold.
But when you were a kid, you and Terry, you dreamed about winning that Olympic gold.
Tom Brands
Yeah. So-
Yeah. So-
Lex Fridman
That’s about winning then.
That’s about winning then.
Tom Brands
… there is the lure of winning. But what drives you is that you know, as you move forward, there’s just no reason that you have to settle for anything but being the best. And it would get to you to the point where that’s not gonna happen to me again.
… there is the lure of winning. But what drives you is that you know, as you move forward, there’s just no reason that you have to settle for anything but being the best. And it would get to you to the point where that’s not gonna happen to me again.
Lex Fridman
So what– The thing that keeps you up at night is the losses, and that’s not gonna happen to me again. That’s the thought that keeps you up at night.
So what– The thing that keeps you up at night is the losses, and that’s not gonna happen to me again. That’s the thought that keeps you up at night.
Tom Brands
That’s the thought that drives you when you’re training. That’s why you do, you know, nine ropes when Gable says, “Do three ropes and buddy pushups, and you’re out of here,” and you do nine, or you do them until you can’t do any more. And it’s a very rare ingredient. The older I get, the more rare I find it is.
That’s the thought that drives you when you’re training. That’s why you do, you know, nine ropes when Gable says, “Do three ropes and buddy pushups, and you’re out of here,” and you do nine, or you do them until you can’t do any more. And it’s a very rare ingredient. The older I get, the more rare I find it is.
Lex Fridman
The ingredient of loss feeding, feeding that, the drive of hard training?
The ingredient of loss feeding, feeding that, the drive of hard training?
Tom Brands
Maybe that because everybody’s so worried about the negative whatever and you’re putting too much pressure on yourself. So maybe that. But what I meant was it’s when a coach says, “Okay, finish with four ropes, and, you know, buddy pushups and four way neck,” you know, I would do 12 or 10. That’s rare.
Maybe that because everybody’s so worried about the negative whatever and you’re putting too much pressure on yourself. So maybe that. But what I meant was it’s when a coach says, “Okay, finish with four ropes, and, you know, buddy pushups and four way neck,” you know, I would do 12 or 10. That’s rare.
Lex Fridman
It’s no longer about what the coach says. It’s your own demons that you’re trying to-
It’s no longer about what the coach says. It’s your own demons that you’re trying to-
Tom Brands
Right, right
Right, right
Lex Fridman
… exercise out. What’s the few losses you’ve had in your life? Are all of them just melt together, or is there something that stands out in your mind?
… exercise out. What’s the few losses you’ve had in your life? Are all of them just melt together, or is there something that stands out in your mind?
Tom Brands
I’m a guy that remembers my career that well. I know that I am judged on a very small portion of my life, and that’s minutes of wrestling matches. You know, a lot of, lot of winning, but there’s some losing in there, too. And, you know, people think they know you because of that, and they think they know you because they see you in a press conference. But you know, to go back to the original question, you know, I don’t know how to answer that.
I’m a guy that remembers my career that well. I know that I am judged on a very small portion of my life, and that’s minutes of wrestling matches. You know, a lot of, lot of winning, but there’s some losing in there, too. And, you know, people think they know you because of that, and they think they know you because they see you in a press conference. But you know, to go back to the original question, you know, I don’t know how to answer that.
Lex Fridman
So there’s no losses that just, that eat at you still?
So there’s no losses that just, that eat at you still?
Tom Brands
There’s opponents that I have learned a great deal from. I mean, my loss to John Smith in 1991 US Open was something that I learned a lot about. I learned a lot about positioning. I learned a lot about the importance of par terre. You know, in a certain kind of crazy way, I learned that I could go with the best guy in the world even though it was 14 to four.
There’s opponents that I have learned a great deal from. I mean, my loss to John Smith in 1991 US Open was something that I learned a lot about. I learned a lot about positioning. I learned a lot about the importance of par terre. You know, in a certain kind of crazy way, I learned that I could go with the best guy in the world even though it was 14 to four.
Tom Brands
And this is when tech falls were 15 or 12 points, so I didn’t get tech fall. And I wasn’t, that wasn’t a badge of honor for me, but I knew I could go with him because it was one-point takedowns. I scored four takedowns on him. And I learned that I had to move my feet and I learned what it meant to move your feet constantly. And there’s no break. John Smith is a very, very intense competitor that people know that now, six-time world Olympic champion, and I felt that firsthand. But I did not go in there taking a back seat, even though the score was very lopsided.
And this is when tech falls were 15 or 12 points, so I didn’t get tech fall. And I wasn’t, that wasn’t a badge of honor for me, but I knew I could go with him because it was one-point takedowns. I scored four takedowns on him. And I learned that I had to move my feet and I learned what it meant to move your feet constantly. And there’s no break. John Smith is a very, very intense competitor that people know that now, six-time world Olympic champion, and I felt that firsthand. But I did not go in there taking a back seat, even though the score was very lopsided.
Lex Fridman
But you knew you could stand with the best of the world.
But you knew you could stand with the best of the world.
Tom Brands
I knew that I– This is what this is about. And you know what? You move your feet and you don’t give up a lace that’s so damn tight that it, you’re, you can’t, you know, feel your calf muscle, you know. And I gotta get ready for the consolation side of the bracket, ’cause I believe that was in the semis, you know? It, you know, you just learn from that, and it was, it was better than learning from, you know, a win over a second-ranked senior level guy when you’re a junior in college. You know, you wrestle the best on a stage.
I knew that I– This is what this is about. And you know what? You move your feet and you don’t give up a lace that’s so damn tight that it, you’re, you can’t, you know, feel your calf muscle, you know. And I gotta get ready for the consolation side of the bracket, ’cause I believe that was in the semis, you know? It, you know, you just learn from that, and it was, it was better than learning from, you know, a win over a second-ranked senior level guy when you’re a junior in college. You know, you wrestle the best on a stage.
Lex Fridman
So if you look back, you probably spent tens of thousands of hours on the mat, spilled sweat, blood, even tears maybe, maybe a few times. So technically or philosophically, how would you do any of those hours differently? Just looking back at the tens of thousands of hours.
So if you look back, you probably spent tens of thousands of hours on the mat, spilled sweat, blood, even tears maybe, maybe a few times. So technically or philosophically, how would you do any of those hours differently? Just looking back at the tens of thousands of hours.
Tom Brands
I would be more probably in my older age, I probably would’ve been more relaxed in my training, and probably would’ve went another cycle if I could do it over again. In ’96, I really thought that if, when Gable retired, that I would be the next guy in line, and I was wrong, and that was immature of me. And-
I would be more probably in my older age, I probably would’ve been more relaxed in my training, and probably would’ve went another cycle if I could do it over again. In ’96, I really thought that if, when Gable retired, that I would be the next guy in line, and I was wrong, and that was immature of me. And-
Lex Fridman
In terms of the coach?
In terms of the coach?
Tom Brands
In terms of the coach, yes. And I knew that Gable was close. I mean, I didn’t know when, but it just so happens, you know, ’97 was his record-breaking year, and then he retired. But I didn’t know how close he was. But I knew that he had, you know, he went down with a bad hip injury and, and so, you know, you’re just, you’re not gonna-
In terms of the coach, yes. And I knew that Gable was close. I mean, I didn’t know when, but it just so happens, you know, ’97 was his record-breaking year, and then he retired. But I didn’t know how close he was. But I knew that he had, you know, he went down with a bad hip injury and, and so, you know, you’re just, you’re not gonna-
Lex Fridman
So what is-
So what is-
Tom Brands
The-
The-
Lex Fridman
What, what does a relaxed Tom Brands look like? You’re saying you would’ve been a little more relaxed.
What, what does a relaxed Tom Brands look like? You’re saying you would’ve been a little more relaxed.
Tom Brands
More like where, you know what? I was pretty dang good and I was getting better every day, but maybe do it a little bit different, a little bit smarter, and Terry actually did that going through 2000. He had to do it, and he would’ve been in, in the, you know, in the funny farm, let alone the, you know, the physical farm, whatever you wanna say. He’d been mentally and physically beat up. But he had to learn to less is more type approach. And how it came around was, is, you know, you work hard at feeling good. You work hard in your recovery. So even when you’re not wrestling hard in that wrestling room and looking for the toughest partner- … to go, you’re still working hard in your recovery.
More like where, you know what? I was pretty dang good and I was getting better every day, but maybe do it a little bit different, a little bit smarter, and Terry actually did that going through 2000. He had to do it, and he would’ve been in, in the, you know, in the funny farm, let alone the, you know, the physical farm, whatever you wanna say. He’d been mentally and physically beat up. But he had to learn to less is more type approach. And how it came around was, is, you know, you work hard at feeling good. You work hard in your recovery. So even when you’re not wrestling hard in that wrestling room and looking for the toughest partner- … to go, you’re still working hard in your recovery.
Lex Fridman
In the recovery.
In the recovery.
Tom Brands
And massage could be that. Stretching could be that. Things like that that are more fluffy in, in-
And massage could be that. Stretching could be that. Things like that that are more fluffy in, in-
Lex Fridman
And that’s something you weren’t as good at, the recovery aspect of this?
And that’s something you weren’t as good at, the recovery aspect of this?
Tom Brands
Never, never, um … There, there’s not a place for it with young people because-
Never, never, um … There, there’s not a place for it with young people because-
Lex Fridman
Mentally
Mentally
Tom Brands
… in, in my opinion, there’s so much development to have happen. I mean, when, when you need to learn wrestling, you need to be wrestling. And as you get older your body won’t do it anymore. And so to learn wrestling, it’s more of a probably a relaxed approach.
… in, in my opinion, there’s so much development to have happen. I mean, when, when you need to learn wrestling, you need to be wrestling. And as you get older your body won’t do it anymore. And so to learn wrestling, it’s more of a probably a relaxed approach.
Lex Fridman
So if you had to choose between two athletes who would dominate competition, one who drills 100,000 reps of a specific takedown, specific technique, or one that spends that time live wrestling?
So if you had to choose between two athletes who would dominate competition, one who drills 100,000 reps of a specific takedown, specific technique, or one that spends that time live wrestling?
Tom Brands
Both. It’s the same. And I liked the live wrestling. I was always wanting to live wrestle. Bring the warmup into the live wrestle, let’s go. But where I got really, really good was the repetition, and I was disciplined enough to know that the things that you hate to do in this sport are the things that make you the very best, and that is a rare ingredient as I’ve gotten older. And you spend a lot of time communicating that to younger athletes.
Both. It’s the same. And I liked the live wrestling. I was always wanting to live wrestle. Bring the warmup into the live wrestle, let’s go. But where I got really, really good was the repetition, and I was disciplined enough to know that the things that you hate to do in this sport are the things that make you the very best, and that is a rare ingredient as I’ve gotten older. And you spend a lot of time communicating that to younger athletes.
Lex Fridman
So the thing, if you feel yourself hating something, that’s probably the thing you should be doing.
So the thing, if you feel yourself hating something, that’s probably the thing you should be doing.
Tom Brands
Yes. As a matter of fact, I had a strength coach when I was really young. He was just a freaking guy that would, he wore white, like he was almost like a nurse, nurse’s clothes. He wore all white from head to toe, and he was in Cheyenne, Wyoming, and his first name was Walt. And he taught Terry and I to hate the bar away from you on that last rep when you’re dead. And whether it’s a curl, you hate it up, and then you do the negative and you hate it down, and you hate that bench up, and you hate it. You look at the bar and you hate it away from you.
Yes. As a matter of fact, I had a strength coach when I was really young. He was just a freaking guy that would, he wore white, like he was almost like a nurse, nurse’s clothes. He wore all white from head to toe, and he was in Cheyenne, Wyoming, and his first name was Walt. And he taught Terry and I to hate the bar away from you on that last rep when you’re dead. And whether it’s a curl, you hate it up, and then you do the negative and you hate it down, and you hate that bench up, and you hate it. You look at the bar and you hate it away from you.
Tom Brands
So the, you know, I learned, and that, I was young. I was young. And I remember being bored. My mom’s sister lived out there, and we were dropped off to stay out there with our cousins, and I was bored a little bit. And they always treated us really good, but this was, like, the single most bright spot in a, in a weightlifting, like enlightenment-
So the, you know, I learned, and that, I was young. I was young. And I remember being bored. My mom’s sister lived out there, and we were dropped off to stay out there with our cousins, and I was bored a little bit. And they always treated us really good, but this was, like, the single most bright spot in a, in a weightlifting, like enlightenment-
Lex Fridman
Mm
Mm
Tom Brands
… even though I lifted weights, but I never knew the psychology behind lifting weights. It’s just to look good and so you can flex and look in the mirror, or is it for performance? And this guy was about performance.
… even though I lifted weights, but I never knew the psychology behind lifting weights. It’s just to look good and so you can flex and look in the mirror, or is it for performance? And this guy was about performance.
Lex Fridman
And you said repetition. Do you mean technique?
And you said repetition. Do you mean technique?
Tom Brands
I’m talking repetition, technique, technique, technique, drill, drill, drill, hit, hit, hit, drive, finish, hit, hit, hit, drive, finish.
I’m talking repetition, technique, technique, technique, drill, drill, drill, hit, hit, hit, drive, finish, hit, hit, hit, drive, finish.
Lex Fridman
So you believe in that? You believe in that with your guys?
So you believe in that? You believe in that with your guys?
Tom Brands
I believe in that wholeheartedly.
I believe in that wholeheartedly.
Lex Fridman
So I mean, uh-
So I mean, uh-
Tom Brands
But I believe that you have to do it on your own. I don’t believe in the coach taking you to the promised land.
But I believe that you have to do it on your own. I don’t believe in the coach taking you to the promised land.
Lex Fridman
So in the guys today or in yourself, how often do you see people that grow the belief of doing 10,000, 20,000 reps?
So in the guys today or in yourself, how often do you see people that grow the belief of doing 10,000, 20,000 reps?
Tom Brands
I think it’s rare. I think it’s very rare, and I think it’s especially rare… I mean, you can talk about that as a coach, but it’s especially rare to bring a guy to that understanding, but you never stop trying. You’re always trying to reach him. I mean, we didn’t have a good performance out there tonight, but you know what? You don’t stop communicating. And there’s a lot of programs out there that put their head down when things aren’t going their way, and then as things start going their way, then they rise with the tide. There was no difference in the demeanor of our corner, and we talk about that’s a philosophy. And so you’re reaching your guys that way. So go back to your point or your question. You know, do you believe in the, in the 10,000 reps? And yes, I do, and-
I think it’s rare. I think it’s very rare, and I think it’s especially rare… I mean, you can talk about that as a coach, but it’s especially rare to bring a guy to that understanding, but you never stop trying. You’re always trying to reach him. I mean, we didn’t have a good performance out there tonight, but you know what? You don’t stop communicating. And there’s a lot of programs out there that put their head down when things aren’t going their way, and then as things start going their way, then they rise with the tide. There was no difference in the demeanor of our corner, and we talk about that’s a philosophy. And so you’re reaching your guys that way. So go back to your point or your question. You know, do you believe in the, in the 10,000 reps? And yes, I do, and-
Lex Fridman
But how do you inspire people to do that? So-
But how do you inspire people to do that? So-
Tom Brands
Well, you communicate…
Well, you communicate…
Lex Fridman
…by example, but communication. But I mean, that’s a… In my experience, what I’ve seen, communicating the value of repetition and drilling is a hard thing to communicate.
…by example, but communication. But I mean, that’s a… In my experience, what I’ve seen, communicating the value of repetition and drilling is a hard thing to communicate.
Tom Brands
It’s hard, and it’s very rare to have somebody that goes in there and will do it on their own.
It’s hard, and it’s very rare to have somebody that goes in there and will do it on their own.
Lex Fridman
Do you have young guys that step up and do that?
Do you have young guys that step up and do that?
Tom Brands
We do, and it’s rare. And the guys that do it on their own and have done it on their own are the guys that are in that lineup and doing well. The other thing is, is that when you talk about getting to that next level, a lot of times it’s, you know, what held you back was, “I did everything the coach asked of me and nothing more.”
We do, and it’s rare. And the guys that do it on their own and have done it on their own are the guys that are in that lineup and doing well. The other thing is, is that when you talk about getting to that next level, a lot of times it’s, you know, what held you back was, “I did everything the coach asked of me and nothing more.”
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Tom Brands
I mean, you can be a great guy for a coach as an athlete, and you did everything that coach asked, but you did nothing more.
I mean, you can be a great guy for a coach as an athlete, and you did everything that coach asked, but you did nothing more.
Lex Fridman
So you’re really looking for the guys that go way beyond what the coach says.
So you’re really looking for the guys that go way beyond what the coach says.
Tom Brands
We don’t want guys that are looking at their watch running out of the room when practice is over.
We don’t want guys that are looking at their watch running out of the room when practice is over.
Lex Fridman
And-
And-
Tom Brands
We want guys that know what they have to get done, and they might leave early, but they’re not looking at their watch.
We want guys that know what they have to get done, and they might leave early, but they’re not looking at their watch.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Tom Brands
They might be done early. They might be… We might be on a whole different path, and this guy just excuses himself. I’m all about that.
They might be done early. They might be… We might be on a whole different path, and this guy just excuses himself. I’m all about that.
Lex Fridman
There’s a-
There’s a-
Tom Brands
We are not… we are not autocrats.
We are not… we are not autocrats.
Lex Fridman
There’s an eternal engine in there. Is that something you’re born with or is that something you can develop?
There’s an eternal engine in there. Is that something you’re born with or is that something you can develop?
Tom Brands
I think you are born with it. You develop it also, and I think that there has to be comfort, and I go back to communication- … that young people are comfortable enough to communicate that I need to take the day off.
I think you are born with it. You develop it also, and I think that there has to be comfort, and I go back to communication- … that young people are comfortable enough to communicate that I need to take the day off.
Lex Fridman
So what do you mean by communication?
So what do you mean by communication?
Tom Brands
Or I need to do something different.
Or I need to do something different.
Lex Fridman
Just let… Exactly. So letting athletes be part of their own development like-
Just let… Exactly. So letting athletes be part of their own development like-
Tom Brands
Communication to me is letting them know what they need to do to get themselves in contention to be the starting quarterback. And then to give them boosts and compliments when they- … earn them. And I don’t have time to waste with lies and cheating. And when I say cheating, I’m talking about when they cheat themselves. And so there, those become very direct conversations, and the conversation starts like this: I don’t have time to waste and neither do you, and so why are we wasting our time? And here’s what I mean by that. We’re having a conversation about, you know, your accountability. If you look in the mirror and you’re accountable, then we aren’t taking the time to go through this. We’re already on our way to solving the problem. Problem can’t be solved without that understanding.
Communication to me is letting them know what they need to do to get themselves in contention to be the starting quarterback. And then to give them boosts and compliments when they- … earn them. And I don’t have time to waste with lies and cheating. And when I say cheating, I’m talking about when they cheat themselves. And so there, those become very direct conversations, and the conversation starts like this: I don’t have time to waste and neither do you, and so why are we wasting our time? And here’s what I mean by that. We’re having a conversation about, you know, your accountability. If you look in the mirror and you’re accountable, then we aren’t taking the time to go through this. We’re already on our way to solving the problem. Problem can’t be solved without that understanding.
Lex Fridman
And that has to do with symptoms that you see in the wrestling room. There’s something where the fire’s not quite there.
And that has to do with symptoms that you see in the wrestling room. There’s something where the fire’s not quite there.
Tom Brands
That has to do with mental, emotional, spiritual, physical- … everything. Everything that you know about. You know, I had a boss, and our athletic director is a great athletic director, and he gives us everything we need to be successful. But I had a boss, his name was Fred Mims, and I didn’t think anybody could be better than him. And then all of a sudden, this Gene Taylor guy came in, and I didn’t… And then he was pretty doggone good too, and he actually, you know, was just like Fred and maybe even a little bit more current.
That has to do with mental, emotional, spiritual, physical- … everything. Everything that you know about. You know, I had a boss, and our athletic director is a great athletic director, and he gives us everything we need to be successful. But I had a boss, his name was Fred Mims, and I didn’t think anybody could be better than him. And then all of a sudden, this Gene Taylor guy came in, and I didn’t… And then he was pretty doggone good too, and he actually, you know, was just like Fred and maybe even a little bit more current.
Tom Brands
And then he ended up taking a job at Kansas State where he’s the athletic director now. And then this lady, Barbara Burke, comes in, and I didn’t think anybody could be better than Gene Taylor or Fred Mims. And this Barbara Burke, she’s better than both of them, and the reason why is because she’s a problem solver. She doesn’t waste time. She’s direct, and she’s a problem solver, and that’s what we need. You need problem solvers.
And then he ended up taking a job at Kansas State where he’s the athletic director now. And then this lady, Barbara Burke, comes in, and I didn’t think anybody could be better than Gene Taylor or Fred Mims. And this Barbara Burke, she’s better than both of them, and the reason why is because she’s a problem solver. She doesn’t waste time. She’s direct, and she’s a problem solver, and that’s what we need. You need problem solvers.
Mental toughness
Lex Fridman
So on the flip side of problems and technique and repetition, here’s a thing called toughness, mental toughness, something that maybe you or maybe even Iowa in general is a little bit known for. So how do you train mental toughness as a coach?
So on the flip side of problems and technique and repetition, here’s a thing called toughness, mental toughness, something that maybe you or maybe even Iowa in general is a little bit known for. So how do you train mental toughness as a coach?
Tom Brands
You train mental toughness by putting them in situations that they’re willing to go through but don’t think they can make it, and then they go through it, and then all of a sudden those barriers are down.
You train mental toughness by putting them in situations that they’re willing to go through but don’t think they can make it, and then they go through it, and then all of a sudden those barriers are down.
Lex Fridman
Does that have to do with physical, usually exhaustion-
Does that have to do with physical, usually exhaustion-
Tom Brands
It has to-
It has to-
Lex Fridman
… the four reps on the ropes? You-
… the four reps on the ropes? You-
Tom Brands
It has to do with that, and it has to do with understanding why we’re doing it, and sometimes understanding why we’re doing it might not come for months. But there’s blind faith, and we have a heavyweight in the room right now, this young guy that he’s like that. He doesn’t necessarily understand it. He asks a lot of questions, but he does it. And he’s been here four months now, four and a half months now, and he’s getting better every day.
It has to do with that, and it has to do with understanding why we’re doing it, and sometimes understanding why we’re doing it might not come for months. But there’s blind faith, and we have a heavyweight in the room right now, this young guy that he’s like that. He doesn’t necessarily understand it. He asks a lot of questions, but he does it. And he’s been here four months now, four and a half months now, and he’s getting better every day.
Lex Fridman
So mental toughness too is a matter of repetition. So you- that’s develop-
So mental toughness too is a matter of repetition. So you- that’s develop-
Tom Brands
Mental toughness is a matter of repetition and having an open mind and being extremely accountable, and not only accountable that when you maybe when something doesn’t go your way, that you look in the mirror and own it. But accountable to the point of view that, you know what, I gotta get tough in this situation right here, right now, and this is what’s gonna make or break me. And I talked about my own career being defined by, you know, a couple of minutes on the mat, but that’s when you’re gonna be defined. That’s how you’re gonna be defined. That’s okay. So people are gonna talk about you, so you might as well have them talking about how doggone tough you are.
Mental toughness is a matter of repetition and having an open mind and being extremely accountable, and not only accountable that when you maybe when something doesn’t go your way, that you look in the mirror and own it. But accountable to the point of view that, you know what, I gotta get tough in this situation right here, right now, and this is what’s gonna make or break me. And I talked about my own career being defined by, you know, a couple of minutes on the mat, but that’s when you’re gonna be defined. That’s how you’re gonna be defined. That’s okay. So people are gonna talk about you, so you might as well have them talking about how doggone tough you are.
Lex Fridman
What about, we live in a world now, I’ve often in my own work, I hear about this concept of work-life balance or over-training. So you’ve been one of the hardest workers ever on the mat. You’ve coached some of the hardest workers ever. Do you think it’s possible to over-train, train too much? How big of a concern is it?
What about, we live in a world now, I’ve often in my own work, I hear about this concept of work-life balance or over-training. So you’ve been one of the hardest workers ever on the mat. You’ve coached some of the hardest workers ever. Do you think it’s possible to over-train, train too much? How big of a concern is it?
Tom Brands
Peaking and burnout are frames of mind, or burnout is a, is a, like you let things probably get to the point where you could have arrested them with a good frame of mind. But peaking is a frame of mind, and, you know, you have to know, be able to read, and that’s a lot of it. And the individual athlete also has to know that it’s a frame of mind. And so when you have a coach that’s reading that the right way, and you have an athlete that is knowing that it… when zero hour comes, that you’re gonna be ready to go and knowing that there’s light at the end of the tunnel, if you feel like you’re burning that candle at both ends, light’s coming at, to the… at the end of the tunnel. I mean, you’re good to go.
Peaking and burnout are frames of mind, or burnout is a, is a, like you let things probably get to the point where you could have arrested them with a good frame of mind. But peaking is a frame of mind, and, you know, you have to know, be able to read, and that’s a lot of it. And the individual athlete also has to know that it’s a frame of mind. And so when you have a coach that’s reading that the right way, and you have an athlete that is knowing that it… when zero hour comes, that you’re gonna be ready to go and knowing that there’s light at the end of the tunnel, if you feel like you’re burning that candle at both ends, light’s coming at, to the… at the end of the tunnel. I mean, you’re good to go.
Lex Fridman
So you think about Gable and that whole dream of being carried off the mat because you worked so hard. And again, do you think it’s possible to overtrain? So you said it’s mental.
So you think about Gable and that whole dream of being carried off the mat because you worked so hard. And again, do you think it’s possible to overtrain? So you said it’s mental.
Tom Brands
I do think it’s possible to overtrain if you have a lot of distractions.
I do think it’s possible to overtrain if you have a lot of distractions.
Lex Fridman
So it’s-
So it’s-
Tom Brands
And if you’re looking at your watch running out of the room- … then yeah, you’re gonna… and that frame of mind isn’t- … gonna lend itself to excellency. And the thing is, we have to accomplish what we need to get accomplished to get better every day. You can’t kind of accomplish what you need to accomplish, you have to accomplish it. And when you’re in that mindset, then the clock is irrelevant. There’s no place for a clock in the wrestling room. And maybe a clock that times a match, but… And maybe a clock if, you know, we’re student athletes here, but that’s why we encourage our, you know, when you schedule your classes, that you don’t have a class that comes right up to, you know, practice time. Or starts, it’s a night class and it starts at 5:30.
And if you’re looking at your watch running out of the room- … then yeah, you’re gonna… and that frame of mind isn’t- … gonna lend itself to excellency. And the thing is, we have to accomplish what we need to get accomplished to get better every day. You can’t kind of accomplish what you need to accomplish, you have to accomplish it. And when you’re in that mindset, then the clock is irrelevant. There’s no place for a clock in the wrestling room. And maybe a clock that times a match, but… And maybe a clock if, you know, we’re student athletes here, but that’s why we encourage our, you know, when you schedule your classes, that you don’t have a class that comes right up to, you know, practice time. Or starts, it’s a night class and it starts at 5:30.
Tom Brands
You know, go to get the 6:30 class or the 7:00.
You know, go to get the 6:30 class or the 7:00.
Lex Fridman
So you leave it all behind, your heart, your passion’s completely in it. There’s no clock.
So you leave it all behind, your heart, your passion’s completely in it. There’s no clock.
Tom Brands
And when you walk in that wrestling room, there’s no distractions. And it’s never eternal. The only thing that’s eternal is death. You know? There’s nothing… And sometimes guys come in there and they wig out. “Oh, it’s an hour and 25 minutes in. Oh. Or an hour and 45 minutes. Oh.”
And when you walk in that wrestling room, there’s no distractions. And it’s never eternal. The only thing that’s eternal is death. You know? There’s nothing… And sometimes guys come in there and they wig out. “Oh, it’s an hour and 25 minutes in. Oh. Or an hour and 45 minutes. Oh.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You have to be willing to go as long as it takes. There’s no clock.
Yeah. You have to be willing to go as long as it takes. There’s no clock.
Tom Brands
There’s no clock.
There’s no clock.
Weight cutting
Lex Fridman
Again, wrestlers are some of the hardest, some of the toughest people in all of sports, but weight cutting often breaks people. So what’s your thought on weight cutting, both nutrition-wise, mental-wise? How do you approach and think of it as a coach in your own career, too, as an-
Again, wrestlers are some of the hardest, some of the toughest people in all of sports, but weight cutting often breaks people. So what’s your thought on weight cutting, both nutrition-wise, mental-wise? How do you approach and think of it as a coach in your own career, too, as an-
Tom Brands
It’s a lot of discipline, and it’s a lot of discipline during a very uncomfortable time period that really doesn’t last that long, but it feels like it lasts long and it’s painful. And but once you shrink your body down, and if you’re hydrated, you’ll get through it. If you’re a little hungry, but you’re eating, but you’re hydrated, once you break that sweat, your energy depletion goes away. That’s a fact. I’ve practiced that. You come in and you’re yawning, and you’re, you know, you’re starting to shrink your body down, and it’s that time of year where, “Hey, I gotta get my body shrunk down”, and you’re dehydrated, you are dead in the water. But if you’re hungry and hydrated, when you break that sweat…
It’s a lot of discipline, and it’s a lot of discipline during a very uncomfortable time period that really doesn’t last that long, but it feels like it lasts long and it’s painful. And but once you shrink your body down, and if you’re hydrated, you’ll get through it. If you’re a little hungry, but you’re eating, but you’re hydrated, once you break that sweat, your energy depletion goes away. That’s a fact. I’ve practiced that. You come in and you’re yawning, and you’re, you know, you’re starting to shrink your body down, and it’s that time of year where, “Hey, I gotta get my body shrunk down”, and you’re dehydrated, you are dead in the water. But if you’re hungry and hydrated, when you break that sweat…
Lex Fridman
Have people gotten better with that over the years, over the past few decades?
Have people gotten better with that over the years, over the past few decades?
Tom Brands
I think that coaches’ science is better. I think that coaches communicate it. I think they always have. I think the bottom line is having the energy to implement that, and taking a guy by the hand when he doesn’t understand, and he’s new in your program, and he’s essential, and/or he’s unwilling to and not disciplined enough. Because when you take him by the hand enough, they will learn that discipline. This is an important aspect of wrestling, buddy. You know what I’m saying? So, you know, it’s not just go and show up for the match. I mean, it’s not about just making weight either. You gotta be able to make weight. That’s part of the warm-up, that’s part of the process, getting ready to wrestle.
I think that coaches’ science is better. I think that coaches communicate it. I think they always have. I think the bottom line is having the energy to implement that, and taking a guy by the hand when he doesn’t understand, and he’s new in your program, and he’s essential, and/or he’s unwilling to and not disciplined enough. Because when you take him by the hand enough, they will learn that discipline. This is an important aspect of wrestling, buddy. You know what I’m saying? So, you know, it’s not just go and show up for the match. I mean, it’s not about just making weight either. You gotta be able to make weight. That’s part of the warm-up, that’s part of the process, getting ready to wrestle.
Lex Fridman
The whole thing. It’s a lifestyle. Yeah.
The whole thing. It’s a lifestyle. Yeah.
Olympic dreams
Lex Fridman
When did you first start believing you’re going to win Olympic gold?
When did you first start believing you’re going to win Olympic gold?
Tom Brands
Uh, I don’t know. I mean, I found out… I got really addicted to wrestling really, really fast. Started late, but looking back at my life, wrestled my whole life with my twin brother. And when Terry and I would fight, it was wrestling and it was to maim. And so if you’re trying to maim me, I better be tough, ’cause if I roll over and expect you to scratch my belly when you’re trying to maim me, I will lose my head. And Tom and Terry Brands, there was no alpha male. And when it was on, it was on for real.
Uh, I don’t know. I mean, I found out… I got really addicted to wrestling really, really fast. Started late, but looking back at my life, wrestled my whole life with my twin brother. And when Terry and I would fight, it was wrestling and it was to maim. And so if you’re trying to maim me, I better be tough, ’cause if I roll over and expect you to scratch my belly when you’re trying to maim me, I will lose my head. And Tom and Terry Brands, there was no alpha male. And when it was on, it was on for real.
Lex Fridman
What do you mean there’s no alpha male? There’s both-
What do you mean there’s no alpha male? There’s both-
Tom Brands
There was… A lot of twins, there’s a dominant twin. Oh, a lot of them. Very few times is there a situation where you’re gonna, “I’m gonna win every time in everything”, and then he’s thinking the same exact way. And Terry used to describe it like in, when we used to get interviewed a lot about our careers like, it’d be like you grabbing a steering wheel and me grabbing a steering wheel and fighting. And that’s what it was like when you would wrestle him or fight him. And so I had that benefit. So when did I know? Well, I got addicted to wrestling really, really fast in fifth grade, and started to research it, and I don’t know why. And talked about the Olympics, and put it in my head. And remember said something about being an Olympic champion in fifth grade, and-
There was… A lot of twins, there’s a dominant twin. Oh, a lot of them. Very few times is there a situation where you’re gonna, “I’m gonna win every time in everything”, and then he’s thinking the same exact way. And Terry used to describe it like in, when we used to get interviewed a lot about our careers like, it’d be like you grabbing a steering wheel and me grabbing a steering wheel and fighting. And that’s what it was like when you would wrestle him or fight him. And so I had that benefit. So when did I know? Well, I got addicted to wrestling really, really fast in fifth grade, and started to research it, and I don’t know why. And talked about the Olympics, and put it in my head. And remember said something about being an Olympic champion in fifth grade, and-
Tom Brands
… somebody made fun of me, and I got in a fight in the playground. And I remember getting pulled in, getting in trouble for that. And the people that got me in trouble for that were smart enough to not rake me over the coals, but they researched or they actually found out what the fight was about. And I was distraught. I was, I was really emotional, like crying or whatever you wanna say. You don’t wanna admit that too many times, but it wasn’t because I got beat up or got my nose bloodied-
… somebody made fun of me, and I got in a fight in the playground. And I remember getting pulled in, getting in trouble for that. And the people that got me in trouble for that were smart enough to not rake me over the coals, but they researched or they actually found out what the fight was about. And I was distraught. I was, I was really emotional, like crying or whatever you wanna say. You don’t wanna admit that too many times, but it wasn’t because I got beat up or got my nose bloodied-
Tom Brands
… or got punched in the face or broke my arm, or there was any pain, it was because they stomped on my dream and they doubted me. And so I fought for that. And, you know, that was a lesson. There’s gonna be a lot of doubters, and one, one thing we talk about as a staff is our staff has to be lockstep in that hallway, in our offices. And when you deviate outside of that, that is heresy.
… or got punched in the face or broke my arm, or there was any pain, it was because they stomped on my dream and they doubted me. And so I fought for that. And, you know, that was a lesson. There’s gonna be a lot of doubters, and one, one thing we talk about as a staff is our staff has to be lockstep in that hallway, in our offices. And when you deviate outside of that, that is heresy.
Lex Fridman
So everybody has to be on board, confident that you’re going to be number one in the country-
So everybody has to be on board, confident that you’re going to be number one in the country-
Tom Brands
When we go forward-
When we go forward-
Lex Fridman
… number one in the world
… number one in the world
Tom Brands
… and we go put our public foot forward, there is a decision, we are unified, and there is no backbiting.
… and we go put our public foot forward, there is a decision, we are unified, and there is no backbiting.
Tom Brands
And we have great people right now, and we hadn’t had that before. We’ve had detractors in our Hawkeye Wrestling Club. We’ve had guys that would go out and get rolled up in ankle laces and not care in our club. And we got Brandon Sorensen, who got rolled up by James Green last night, but I’ll tell you what, I don’t have a problem with that. You know why? Because I know it means a lot to him. He didn’t roll over. He didn’t quit because he was on the consolation side of a bracket. And so when you have that, and then you have, you know, if there’s a disagreement, it’s behind closed doors, and then you’re moving forward. And when you have people that when they’re meeting your fans and your supporters, you know, they’re talking the right way with the right message.
And we have great people right now, and we hadn’t had that before. We’ve had detractors in our Hawkeye Wrestling Club. We’ve had guys that would go out and get rolled up in ankle laces and not care in our club. And we got Brandon Sorensen, who got rolled up by James Green last night, but I’ll tell you what, I don’t have a problem with that. You know why? Because I know it means a lot to him. He didn’t roll over. He didn’t quit because he was on the consolation side of a bracket. And so when you have that, and then you have, you know, if there’s a disagreement, it’s behind closed doors, and then you’re moving forward. And when you have people that when they’re meeting your fans and your supporters, you know, they’re talking the right way with the right message.
Tom Brands
And anything that’s cattywampus to that, you gotta be careful there. You gotta be careful there.
And anything that’s cattywampus to that, you gotta be careful there. You gotta be careful there.
Lex Fridman
So that in terms of affirmations, in terms of really believing as a team, as an individual, believing that you’re the best in the world, did, did you… I’m sure you had detractors. You had people that continued after fifth grade-
So that in terms of affirmations, in terms of really believing as a team, as an individual, believing that you’re the best in the world, did, did you… I’m sure you had detractors. You had people that continued after fifth grade-
Tom Brands
And that’s probably where my hatred of losing trumps my love for winning because I wanted to shove it up their rear end bad. And the thing is, is we maintain a high level, and there’s very few programs. Oklahoma State, Ohio State now, Penn State, I mean, there’s four programs that try to win a national title every year, and that’s it. And these, these, these other teams, they get up, and they, they got a good team. And they get up, and they get going. And then when, when things don’t go well, “Okay, we’re gonna do it next year,” or, “This is a down year. We’re gonna, we’re gonna get ready. We’re three years out.”
And that’s probably where my hatred of losing trumps my love for winning because I wanted to shove it up their rear end bad. And the thing is, is we maintain a high level, and there’s very few programs. Oklahoma State, Ohio State now, Penn State, I mean, there’s four programs that try to win a national title every year, and that’s it. And these, these, these other teams, they get up, and they, they got a good team. And they get up, and they get going. And then when, when things don’t go well, “Okay, we’re gonna do it next year,” or, “This is a down year. We’re gonna, we’re gonna get ready. We’re three years out.”
Lex Fridman
So no matter what, you’re fighting for first place.
So no matter what, you’re fighting for first place.
Tom Brands
We do, and we haven’t won, and now you can say, “Well, we haven’t won in eight years.” Well, you’re right, we haven’t. But look at our results. They’re better, better than anybody out there, and it’s because- and besides Penn State, and it’s because of our mentality and because we have great people. Ryan Morningstar, Bobby Telford, Terry Brands, our medical team even, our strength coach, Quinn Holland, we’re all on the same page. And when I sense something, I hit it immediately. I don’t have time to waste. There will not be dissension in that hallway.
We do, and we haven’t won, and now you can say, “Well, we haven’t won in eight years.” Well, you’re right, we haven’t. But look at our results. They’re better, better than anybody out there, and it’s because- and besides Penn State, and it’s because of our mentality and because we have great people. Ryan Morningstar, Bobby Telford, Terry Brands, our medical team even, our strength coach, Quinn Holland, we’re all on the same page. And when I sense something, I hit it immediately. I don’t have time to waste. There will not be dissension in that hallway.
Lex Fridman
Everybody’s in together, yeah.
Everybody’s in together, yeah.
1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta
Lex Fridman
1996, Olympic Games in Atlanta. Can you take me through the day when you’re going for the 62 kg gold? What did you eat, drink? What did you think? What was on your mind?
1996, Olympic Games in Atlanta. Can you take me through the day when you’re going for the 62 kg gold? What did you eat, drink? What did you think? What was on your mind?
Tom Brands
Oh, it really doesn’t matter. I have a routine that, you know, I had a routine as a competitor that I could run through right now. It was a lot of self-talk, very, very positive self-talk.
Oh, it really doesn’t matter. I have a routine that, you know, I had a routine as a competitor that I could run through right now. It was a lot of self-talk, very, very positive self-talk.
Lex Fridman
Visualization?
Visualization?
Tom Brands
Yes, visualization, self-talk, and that’s how I was able to relax in getting ready for matches my whole life. Learned that very early age at a camp, in a developmental camp at a young age, Terry and I did. And I can tell you what I ate, and I can tell you what I did to relax, and it doesn’t matter. What you have to do is you have to find that peace, and I just know that when I was getting ready for the finals match, I had gone back to my room. I had my relaxed material, you know, and I was able to relax because I prepared for it.
Yes, visualization, self-talk, and that’s how I was able to relax in getting ready for matches my whole life. Learned that very early age at a camp, in a developmental camp at a young age, Terry and I did. And I can tell you what I ate, and I can tell you what I did to relax, and it doesn’t matter. What you have to do is you have to find that peace, and I just know that when I was getting ready for the finals match, I had gone back to my room. I had my relaxed material, you know, and I was able to relax because I prepared for it.
Lex Fridman
Hopefully I’m right on this, but just looking at the insane bracket you had to go through, you had to beat, just to get to the finals, you had to beat three world champions, eventually world ch- I mean, they’ve-
Hopefully I’m right on this, but just looking at the insane bracket you had to go through, you had to beat, just to get to the finals, you had to beat three world champions, eventually world ch- I mean, they’ve-
Tom Brands
And you know what? I don’t talk about that, and nobody else does either, but everybody talks about it in their own career. So now you’re making my head big. But yeah, I had a road. I had a road. You’re right.
And you know what? I don’t talk about that, and nobody else does either, but everybody talks about it in their own career. So now you’re making my head big. But yeah, I had a road. I had a road. You’re right.
Lex Fridman
That’s, that is the hardest bracket I’ve seen. So I’ve talked to a lot of Olympic champions. That is the hardest bracket I’ve seen of any champion. So maybe I’m confused on this, but it seemed like a really tough day for you. Did you have, did you know the bracket ahead of time? Did you know who you faced?
That’s, that is the hardest bracket I’ve seen. So I’ve talked to a lot of Olympic champions. That is the hardest bracket I’ve seen of any champion. So maybe I’m confused on this, but it seemed like a really tough day for you. Did you have, did you know the bracket ahead of time? Did you know who you faced?
Tom Brands
You see the draw, and it’s a two-day tournament, so psychology comes into it as much as physical shape, you know, because there’s those, you gotta sleep, you know, the night before, after the weigh-in, then you gotta sleep again that next night after your semifinal match is gonna be in the morning, you know? And then you have to go back and rest ’cause your final match isn’t until whatever time it was. And so all this relaxation and all that stuff that you just talked about, that visualization and self-talk, that’s what helps. It’s your routine. You know-
You see the draw, and it’s a two-day tournament, so psychology comes into it as much as physical shape, you know, because there’s those, you gotta sleep, you know, the night before, after the weigh-in, then you gotta sleep again that next night after your semifinal match is gonna be in the morning, you know? And then you have to go back and rest ’cause your final match isn’t until whatever time it was. And so all this relaxation and all that stuff that you just talked about, that visualization and self-talk, that’s what helps. It’s your routine. You know-
Lex Fridman
And was there any doubt, any fear, any- anything there?
And was there any doubt, any fear, any- anything there?
Tom Brands
The fear is the type of fear, and I just talked about this to one of my athletes today. Jack Dempsey talked about fear, and the fear of losing is what motivated him to try to take his opponent’s head off. He was a boxer. And that’s okay. So fear of competition, fear of screwing up, fear of, “Oh, I don’t feel good,” no. No, but that little fear that, you know what, there’s somebody out there that thinks that, you know what, they, they’re gonna, they’re gonna revel in my, they’re gonna, they’re gonna, they’re gonna eat it up in my misery. They’re gonna love, they’re gonna be thriving because I fail, and, and I’m not gonna let that happen.
The fear is the type of fear, and I just talked about this to one of my athletes today. Jack Dempsey talked about fear, and the fear of losing is what motivated him to try to take his opponent’s head off. He was a boxer. And that’s okay. So fear of competition, fear of screwing up, fear of, “Oh, I don’t feel good,” no. No, but that little fear that, you know what, there’s somebody out there that thinks that, you know what, they, they’re gonna, they’re gonna revel in my, they’re gonna, they’re gonna, they’re gonna eat it up in my misery. They’re gonna love, they’re gonna be thriving because I fail, and, and I’m not gonna let that happen.
Brother
Lex Fridman
Your identical twin brother, Terry, you’ve been at him, like you said, your whole life, and you’re both some of the greatest wrestlers of all time. You won the gold medal. He won the bronze medal. You’ve mentioned, you know, all that really matters is the six minutes or, you know, just a few minutes, sometimes a few seconds define your whole career. So how do you think about that thin line, the tragic line at the Olympic level between winning and losing?
Your identical twin brother, Terry, you’ve been at him, like you said, your whole life, and you’re both some of the greatest wrestlers of all time. You won the gold medal. He won the bronze medal. You’ve mentioned, you know, all that really matters is the six minutes or, you know, just a few minutes, sometimes a few seconds define your whole career. So how do you think about that thin line, the tragic line at the Olympic level between winning and losing?
Tom Brands
I think you come to peace that in the end when it’s over that you did the best you could And that’s certainly the case with Terry. He has a career credentials are better than mine internationally. You know, he won two world championships, I won one, and he won an Olympic bronze medal. And you know, I won an Olympic gold medal, but I only won one. And, and the thing is, is that’s not what’s important anyway. What’s important is, is that when it’s all over, you know, how do you look back on it? And you’re kinda like, “Well, you just said that you made sure that you weren’t gonna leave anything undone.” But you know what? There were tournaments where I did leave things undone. And so how do you come back from that? Well, Terry never came back from 2000 ’cause he retired.
I think you come to peace that in the end when it’s over that you did the best you could And that’s certainly the case with Terry. He has a career credentials are better than mine internationally. You know, he won two world championships, I won one, and he won an Olympic bronze medal. And you know, I won an Olympic gold medal, but I only won one. And, and the thing is, is that’s not what’s important anyway. What’s important is, is that when it’s all over, you know, how do you look back on it? And you’re kinda like, “Well, you just said that you made sure that you weren’t gonna leave anything undone.” But you know what? There were tournaments where I did leave things undone. And so how do you come back from that? Well, Terry never came back from 2000 ’cause he retired.
Tom Brands
Well, you know what? You duplicate and exceed when you’re communicating to these young athletes, and because of that experience, that makes Terry a better coach. Because of, you know, 1995, that makes me a better coach, you know, realizing that there are certain things that unraveled in that year that I coulda controlled looking back on it. And when you have that perspective, you can communicate.
Well, you know what? You duplicate and exceed when you’re communicating to these young athletes, and because of that experience, that makes Terry a better coach. Because of, you know, 1995, that makes me a better coach, you know, realizing that there are certain things that unraveled in that year that I coulda controlled looking back on it. And when you have that perspective, you can communicate.
Lex Fridman
So what… Control. Is there… Can you control everything? How big of a role is luck in this whole thing?
So what… Control. Is there… Can you control everything? How big of a role is luck in this whole thing?
Tom Brands
Control how you react to an injury. Control that. So you can’t, you don’t have any control over it, it’s over, you know, you have whatever, and whatever happened, but relax and you learn to deal with injuries better because of that. You have that experience that you let this thing maybe get the best of you, and that’s just an example. And, you know, Terry put a lot of demons to rest with that bronze medal.
Control how you react to an injury. Control that. So you can’t, you don’t have any control over it, it’s over, you know, you have whatever, and whatever happened, but relax and you learn to deal with injuries better because of that. You have that experience that you let this thing maybe get the best of you, and that’s just an example. And, you know, Terry put a lot of demons to rest with that bronze medal.
Lex Fridman
So becoming an Olympic medalist-
So becoming an Olympic medalist-
Tom Brands
Yeah, he got-
Yeah, he got-
Lex Fridman
… a few demons could relax.
… a few demons could relax.
Tom Brands
Well, a little. And he will never admit that, and he probably is truthful, and I should, I’m speaking for him, but he’s truthful when he says that. But if I look at it, and bronze sucks, but if I look at it, he did put some demons to rest and I’m proud of him for it. There’s something there that is a consolation in the fact that he won the consolation medal. The consolation medal sucks, but there is a consolation that he won the consolation medal.
Well, a little. And he will never admit that, and he probably is truthful, and I should, I’m speaking for him, but he’s truthful when he says that. But if I look at it, and bronze sucks, but if I look at it, he did put some demons to rest and I’m proud of him for it. There’s something there that is a consolation in the fact that he won the consolation medal. The consolation medal sucks, but there is a consolation that he won the consolation medal.
Lex Fridman
That’s a tough medal to win, by the way. Yeah. But do you see the Shakespearean tragedy of it all that the line between winning and losing? So you often say that, you know, winning is everything, but it feels like, especially at the Olympic level, or you talk about NCAA finals or that tournament, you know, a split second miss move can result in a loss where you dominated all the way up to there.
That’s a tough medal to win, by the way. Yeah. But do you see the Shakespearean tragedy of it all that the line between winning and losing? So you often say that, you know, winning is everything, but it feels like, especially at the Olympic level, or you talk about NCAA finals or that tournament, you know, a split second miss move can result in a loss where you dominated all the way up to there.
Tom Brands
That’s where your psychology comes in, and that’s where the repetition and all of the self-talk and visualization and the physical shape and everything comes together. And so that doesn’t happen. And tonight, we got beat twice, actually three times, and we outwrestled those. We lost three matches and we outwrestled the guy for six minutes and- … 30 seconds. Or one match went to overtime. And if our guys can move forward with the right perspective, I’m confident that they’ll be better. Um, I’ll tell you what, I’d take our guy over their guy any day, any day, ’cause our guys get up for every match. And now we got a lot to work on.
That’s where your psychology comes in, and that’s where the repetition and all of the self-talk and visualization and the physical shape and everything comes together. And so that doesn’t happen. And tonight, we got beat twice, actually three times, and we outwrestled those. We lost three matches and we outwrestled the guy for six minutes and- … 30 seconds. Or one match went to overtime. And if our guys can move forward with the right perspective, I’m confident that they’ll be better. Um, I’ll tell you what, I’d take our guy over their guy any day, any day, ’cause our guys get up for every match. And now we got a lot to work on.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Tom Brands
We got a lot to work on. But you know what? I can say all that, and I’ll take our guy and blah, blah, blah, but what are they gonna do tonight in their meal?
We got a lot to work on. But you know what? I can say all that, and I’ll take our guy and blah, blah, blah, but what are they gonna do tonight in their meal?
Lex Fridman
How are they gonna grow?
How are they gonna grow?
Tom Brands
What are they gonna do tonight in their rest? What are they gonna do tomorrow in their recovery on their own necessarily? What are they gonna do Monday? Great wrestlers can use their imagination with a win that they’re not satisfied with and go forward as if it was a loss, but it’s still easier to go forward with that win. But they can… They don’t just, “Oh, I won, I’m fine,” and goes on. But then when they lose the exact same way that they could have lost before, then they go off the deep end, and then that’s when they’re gonna make the change in their life. And we talked to, we talked about that to our team tonight, and the mature, rare ingredient is guys that can get better even with success like it was a loss without beating themselves up. That’s complicated.
What are they gonna do tonight in their rest? What are they gonna do tomorrow in their recovery on their own necessarily? What are they gonna do Monday? Great wrestlers can use their imagination with a win that they’re not satisfied with and go forward as if it was a loss, but it’s still easier to go forward with that win. But they can… They don’t just, “Oh, I won, I’m fine,” and goes on. But then when they lose the exact same way that they could have lost before, then they go off the deep end, and then that’s when they’re gonna make the change in their life. And we talked to, we talked about that to our team tonight, and the mature, rare ingredient is guys that can get better even with success like it was a loss without beating themselves up. That’s complicated.
Lex Fridman
It is. It’s a balance.
It is. It’s a balance.
Champion mindset
Lex Fridman
You often talk about Iowa’s focus on creating individual champions, like Spencer Lee. Can you explain the philosophy of focusing on individuals versus the team?
You often talk about Iowa’s focus on creating individual champions, like Spencer Lee. Can you explain the philosophy of focusing on individuals versus the team?
Tom Brands
I think that we need to put them both together, and the individual impacts the team. And you know, we haven’t done that since 2010, and we need to do a better job of putting 10 weight classes out there that contribute to the team, and if it’s not 10, then it’s nine. And if it’s not nine, it can’t be four, you know? And that takes a lot of pride and it takes a lot of, you know, where the coach is on top of it. And, you know, you’re not just working on the easy things, the glaring things. You’re working on everything.
I think that we need to put them both together, and the individual impacts the team. And you know, we haven’t done that since 2010, and we need to do a better job of putting 10 weight classes out there that contribute to the team, and if it’s not 10, then it’s nine. And if it’s not nine, it can’t be four, you know? And that takes a lot of pride and it takes a lot of, you know, where the coach is on top of it. And, you know, you’re not just working on the easy things, the glaring things. You’re working on everything.
Lex Fridman
What do you mean by everything? So the v-
What do you mean by everything? So the v-
Tom Brands
Well, like there’s just some, you know, there’s ideas when you’re a coach that aren’t, they’re beneath the surface and you gotta find them. And so when you’re-
Well, like there’s just some, you know, there’s ideas when you’re a coach that aren’t, they’re beneath the surface and you gotta find them. And so when you’re-
Lex Fridman
And that’s where communication comes in.
And that’s where communication comes in.
Tom Brands
Yeah, but you’re talking about, “Yeah, we gotta move forward.” Well, what does that mean? Well, I know what that means, but how many, how many guys really know what that means in their program? You know, I think there’s so many levels of that
Yeah, but you’re talking about, “Yeah, we gotta move forward.” Well, what does that mean? Well, I know what that means, but how many, how many guys really know what that means in their program? You know, I think there’s so many levels of that
Lex Fridman
You’ve said before that winning is everything. And that means people lose. Most people lose. You know, there’s really, in whatever the context, there’s only one winner. In many parts of our world today outside of wrestling, that concept, the brutal honesty of that is uncomfortable for people. So how, how do you think about this very philosophical, difficult concept of, you know, there only being one winner, that winning is everything, this kind of really painful idea?
You’ve said before that winning is everything. And that means people lose. Most people lose. You know, there’s really, in whatever the context, there’s only one winner. In many parts of our world today outside of wrestling, that concept, the brutal honesty of that is uncomfortable for people. So how, how do you think about this very philosophical, difficult concept of, you know, there only being one winner, that winning is everything, this kind of really painful idea?
Tom Brands
I don’t think that that’s a bad thing to have that mentality. I mean, I think at Khoudiakov. Um, I remember a story I read about him. He comes to mind. You know Sargis, I remember when he lost in London, and I remember the look on his face, and those are some of the greatest wrestlers in the history of the sport, freestyle wrestling. And you know what? It’s what works for you. And you, you can talk about being at peace with your results and, and that the approach is and the journey is what it’s about, but… And that’s great-
I don’t think that that’s a bad thing to have that mentality. I mean, I think at Khoudiakov. Um, I remember a story I read about him. He comes to mind. You know Sargis, I remember when he lost in London, and I remember the look on his face, and those are some of the greatest wrestlers in the history of the sport, freestyle wrestling. And you know what? It’s what works for you. And you, you can talk about being at peace with your results and, and that the approach is and the journey is what it’s about, but… And that’s great-
Tom Brands
… and that relaxes some champions, and that makes some champions really, really tick. But not everybody. So it’s okay. It’s okay. And if that wigs you out and that, that really makes you uptight, then go the other route. You have to find what works for you. And that takes a lot of work. If you’re lazy, forget it. Forget it.
… and that relaxes some champions, and that makes some champions really, really tick. But not everybody. So it’s okay. It’s okay. And if that wigs you out and that, that really makes you uptight, then go the other route. You have to find what works for you. And that takes a lot of work. If you’re lazy, forget it. Forget it.
Lex Fridman
So you and Terry, but in general, how do you find the line between extremely physical, extreme physical wrestling and rough wrestling or angry wrestling? So to which degree has anger, whether it’s in your wrestling room these days or in your own career, entered wrestling? Do you see it as a tool that can be used in the wrestling match as a neg-
So you and Terry, but in general, how do you find the line between extremely physical, extreme physical wrestling and rough wrestling or angry wrestling? So to which degree has anger, whether it’s in your wrestling room these days or in your own career, entered wrestling? Do you see it as a tool that can be used in the wrestling match as a neg-
Tom Brands
I think there’s a balance and, or not even a balance. There’s a line that you go up to, and you can’t cross it. Sportsmanship is everything. You can get dinged for points. You can get thrown out of tournaments. There’s rules with flagrant misconduct where you’re kicked out of the match, other team gets the points, and then you have to sit the next meet. So it’s very serious. The NCAA sends a message, a very serious message about sportsmanship.
I think there’s a balance and, or not even a balance. There’s a line that you go up to, and you can’t cross it. Sportsmanship is everything. You can get dinged for points. You can get thrown out of tournaments. There’s rules with flagrant misconduct where you’re kicked out of the match, other team gets the points, and then you have to sit the next meet. So it’s very serious. The NCAA sends a message, a very serious message about sportsmanship.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Tom Brands
And so we talk about that. And the other thing with wrestling is there’s rules in wrestling. These guys that are tough guys outside of the rules, that’s what you want in your opponent. That means they’re frustrated.
And so we talk about that. And the other thing with wrestling is there’s rules in wrestling. These guys that are tough guys outside of the rules, that’s what you want in your opponent. That means they’re frustrated.
Lex Fridman
Exactly.
Exactly.
Tom Brands
You gotta be a tough guy inside the rules of the sport. That’s more honorable than cold-cocking somebody and knocking them out.
You gotta be a tough guy inside the rules of the sport. That’s more honorable than cold-cocking somebody and knocking them out.
Lex Fridman
So yeah, anger doesn’t mean breaking the rules. But I mean, you know, a lot of people know you just watching you as a coach. There’s quite a bit of passion there.
So yeah, anger doesn’t mean breaking the rules. But I mean, you know, a lot of people know you just watching you as a coach. There’s quite a bit of passion there.
Tom Brands
Well, come and do what you’re doing tonight. I mean, break bread with me in my kitchen and see how big of a jackass I am.
Well, come and do what you’re doing tonight. I mean, break bread with me in my kitchen and see how big of a jackass I am.
Lex Fridman
No, you’re a pretty nice guy. I can vouch for-
No, you’re a pretty nice guy. I can vouch for-
Tom Brands
Well, I’m not asking for that necessarily, but thanks. I’m saying… you know what? As a coach, I mean, come… Okay, come spend a month in our program, and you’ll see really what kind of people we are. And there’s a stigma out there because they are very threatened by our program. There’s nobody else that threatens the sport of wrestling like we do, and that’s the truth.
Well, I’m not asking for that necessarily, but thanks. I’m saying… you know what? As a coach, I mean, come… Okay, come spend a month in our program, and you’ll see really what kind of people we are. And there’s a stigma out there because they are very threatened by our program. There’s nobody else that threatens the sport of wrestling like we do, and that’s the truth.
Lex Fridman
There’s a legend to Iowa wrestling. There’s… It’s one of the most intimidating sort of symbols.
There’s a legend to Iowa wrestling. There’s… It’s one of the most intimidating sort of symbols.
Tom Brands
There’s a legend to John Smith. It’s the same thing.
There’s a legend to John Smith. It’s the same thing.
Lex Fridman
But it hasn’t this-
But it hasn’t this-
Tom Brands
They get up for John Smith. They get up for Oklahoma State. They get up for Penn State. My question is, and, okay, I’ll answer it this way. I’ll give you an example. In my coaching career, I coached at Virginia Tech for 22 months. We recruited the number one recruiting class. We got the administration to change 100%, 180 how they looked at wrestling. Here’s the thing, and because of how serious we were and because we weren’t idiots, we were able to do that with our administration. But my point is this: we tried to win. We tried to win, even at Virginia Tech. It wasn’t a stepping stone for me. It ended up being one quickly. And looking back on it, I was a fool to think that I’d be there for 20 years. That’s what I thought.
They get up for John Smith. They get up for Oklahoma State. They get up for Penn State. My question is, and, okay, I’ll answer it this way. I’ll give you an example. In my coaching career, I coached at Virginia Tech for 22 months. We recruited the number one recruiting class. We got the administration to change 100%, 180 how they looked at wrestling. Here’s the thing, and because of how serious we were and because we weren’t idiots, we were able to do that with our administration. But my point is this: we tried to win. We tried to win, even at Virginia Tech. It wasn’t a stepping stone for me. It ended up being one quickly. And looking back on it, I was a fool to think that I’d be there for 20 years. That’s what I thought.
Lex Fridman
But you believed you would be. I mean-
But you believed you would be. I mean-
Tom Brands
I did.
I did.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Tom Brands
I did.
I did.
Beyond limits
Lex Fridman
So do you remember a time that you really pushed yourself to your limits? So Gable talks about having to be carried off the mat. Have you really found that level-
So do you remember a time that you really pushed yourself to your limits? So Gable talks about having to be carried off the mat. Have you really found that level-
Tom Brands
I said something about that too in a book, and I think I was misquoted one time. And actually it was Gable’s quote, and I was trying to make the point that Gable’s quote was like this, and, you know, they were making it like it was my own words. I think it was the first Wrestling Tough book. But…
I said something about that too in a book, and I think I was misquoted one time. And actually it was Gable’s quote, and I was trying to make the point that Gable’s quote was like this, and, you know, they were making it like it was my own words. I think it was the first Wrestling Tough book. But…
Lex Fridman
It’s a good book.
It’s a good book.
Tom Brands
… it’s a good book. But the story’s Gable’s, and I don’t know if there’s anybody that has done that besides him, and I think that’s a very rare quality. But I’ve definitely been in that nirvana level… of, you know, either is you could go all day long, and it doesn’t… You have to shoot me to stop me.
… it’s a good book. But the story’s Gable’s, and I don’t know if there’s anybody that has done that besides him, and I think that’s a very rare quality. But I’ve definitely been in that nirvana level… of, you know, either is you could go all day long, and it doesn’t… You have to shoot me to stop me.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Tom Brands
But there’s a balance because you’re not going hard with and holding your breath. It’s not a ugh. It’s a relaxed… And, like, you got a guy cornered, and who’s most dangerous? Well, the guy that’s cornered, and so that’s where you relax. I’m not bum rushing him. I’m relaxed. I’m still moving, faking, very fluid. Guy falls down on his face, I run around behind him. That’s offense. You don’t have to just grunt to the leg and call that offense. Offense is an in and out, smooth, seamless.
But there’s a balance because you’re not going hard with and holding your breath. It’s not a ugh. It’s a relaxed… And, like, you got a guy cornered, and who’s most dangerous? Well, the guy that’s cornered, and so that’s where you relax. I’m not bum rushing him. I’m relaxed. I’m still moving, faking, very fluid. Guy falls down on his face, I run around behind him. That’s offense. You don’t have to just grunt to the leg and call that offense. Offense is an in and out, smooth, seamless.
Lex Fridman
Now you sound like a Russian wrestler.
Now you sound like a Russian wrestler.
Tom Brands
Yeah. Well, that’s, they’re the best.
Yeah. Well, that’s, they’re the best.
Lex Fridman
In a certain light, looking at the history of wrestling, wrestling is much bigger than folkstyle, freestyle, Greco. It’s one of the oldest forms of combat, period. There’s been cave drawings 15,000 years ago. Do you ever see… So you’re one of the great coaches of all time. You’re now focused on a particular rule style right now, but do you ever see wrestling as bigger than all of this, you know, as one of the pure combats between two human beings?
In a certain light, looking at the history of wrestling, wrestling is much bigger than folkstyle, freestyle, Greco. It’s one of the oldest forms of combat, period. There’s been cave drawings 15,000 years ago. Do you ever see… So you’re one of the great coaches of all time. You’re now focused on a particular rule style right now, but do you ever see wrestling as bigger than all of this, you know, as one of the pure combats between two human beings?
Tom Brands
I do, and we’re raising $20 million for a facility to make it the best facility on the planet. We have a vision to build the best facility on planet Earth and put the best wrestlers in it, and that is bigger than wrestling. It’s for the University of Iowa, and our donors are doing it for the University of Iowa, but it is about the value of wrestling to me also. There is so much value to wrestling. Blind people don’t play football. They wrestle. Blind people don’t play basketball. I mean, maybe they do, but it’d be very difficult. They can wrestle. Wrestling is a feel sport and-
I do, and we’re raising $20 million for a facility to make it the best facility on the planet. We have a vision to build the best facility on planet Earth and put the best wrestlers in it, and that is bigger than wrestling. It’s for the University of Iowa, and our donors are doing it for the University of Iowa, but it is about the value of wrestling to me also. There is so much value to wrestling. Blind people don’t play football. They wrestle. Blind people don’t play basketball. I mean, maybe they do, but it’d be very difficult. They can wrestle. Wrestling is a feel sport and-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s no ball. There’s nothing. It’s just two guys or two girls, and that’s it.
Yeah, there’s no ball. There’s nothing. It’s just two guys or two girls, and that’s it.
Tom Brands
That’s right, and you… I mean, I’m not gonna say you can’t because somebody’ll get ahold of this, and… I’ll get an email or a letter that says, “You said blind people can’t play baseball,” and blah, blah. I’m just saying that blind people can wrestle very effectively.
That’s right, and you… I mean, I’m not gonna say you can’t because somebody’ll get ahold of this, and… I’ll get an email or a letter that says, “You said blind people can’t play baseball,” and blah, blah. I’m just saying that blind people can wrestle very effectively.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Tom Brands
I’ve wrestled with my eyes shut. I mean, I was honest about it, too, and I was effective.
I’ve wrestled with my eyes shut. I mean, I was honest about it, too, and I was effective.
Lex Fridman
So it’s-
So it’s-
Tom Brands
Why was I able to be effective? Because-
Why was I able to be effective? Because-
Lex Fridman
It’s feel.
It’s feel.
Tom Brands
… wrestling is a sport that you can overcome a lot. Your demons that you’re overcoming, they’re not limited with whether I’m blind or not. The demons that are overcoming are inside you.
… wrestling is a sport that you can overcome a lot. Your demons that you’re overcoming, they’re not limited with whether I’m blind or not. The demons that are overcoming are inside you.
Lex Fridman
No. It’s all mind.
No. It’s all mind.
Tom Brands
You have to overcome those demons from within.
You have to overcome those demons from within.
Lex Fridman
So what’s the future of Iowa wrestling look like with this facility and this momentum you have now-
So what’s the future of Iowa wrestling look like with this facility and this momentum you have now-
Tom Brands
It-
It-
Lex Fridman
… and this great group of guys you have now?
… and this great group of guys you have now?
Tom Brands
We have a good young group of guys, and you know, there is a lot of buzz in the program, and probably hasn’t been this much buzz for quite some time. And our job is to, you know, be relaxed and be focused and not get caught up in the buzz. But we have to put it together, and we have a catalyst, Spencer Lee, but he’s gonna have to, he’s gonna have to get better. And we have some other catalysts as well that are you know, gonna help us in the future. But they gotta get better. And so all this stuff about independence and accountability and, you know, being able to get better every day under duress and not knowing that you’re getting better, but you are, you know? You know what that, you know what I mean by that?
We have a good young group of guys, and you know, there is a lot of buzz in the program, and probably hasn’t been this much buzz for quite some time. And our job is to, you know, be relaxed and be focused and not get caught up in the buzz. But we have to put it together, and we have a catalyst, Spencer Lee, but he’s gonna have to, he’s gonna have to get better. And we have some other catalysts as well that are you know, gonna help us in the future. But they gotta get better. And so all this stuff about independence and accountability and, you know, being able to get better every day under duress and not knowing that you’re getting better, but you are, you know? You know what that, you know what I mean by that?
Tom Brands
Like, the great thing about Gable was, wrestling for him was, is you were getting better, and you didn’t know you were getting better.
Like, the great thing about Gable was, wrestling for him was, is you were getting better, and you didn’t know you were getting better.
Lex Fridman
Well, yeah, just like you said, grow from success, so even you, you never allow yourself to think that you’re getting good.
Well, yeah, just like you said, grow from success, so even you, you never allow yourself to think that you’re getting good.
Tom Brands
All of a sudden you do something in the practice room that you’ve been working on, and all of a sudden you hit it, and it’s like it was automatic. And then that, you know-
All of a sudden you do something in the practice room that you’ve been working on, and all of a sudden you hit it, and it’s like it was automatic. And then that, you know-
Lex Fridman
Builds
Builds
Tom Brands
… come, yeah, that multiplies success and…
… come, yeah, that multiplies success and…
Faith
Lex Fridman
So if I may say so, you’re a bit of a man of the Bible. What’s, where do you go, what do you go to the Bible for? Your faith- … for strength, love, patience, wisdom?
So if I may say so, you’re a bit of a man of the Bible. What’s, where do you go, what do you go to the Bible for? Your faith- … for strength, love, patience, wisdom?
Tom Brands
Same things I talked about. Things that you can’t control, you turn ’em over.
Same things I talked about. Things that you can’t control, you turn ’em over.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Tom Brands
So the biggest thing for me is I gotta turn over the things that I can’t control, turn ’em over to that power, and I’m gonna be a lot better off. And that’s the reason why I’m not in the funny farm- … ’cause very competitive to me. It’s very serious that we know that these young wrestlers come to school here to be the best that they can be and to accomplish goals that, like me when I was young, they’ve set out to accomplish. And they chose Iowa to do that, so we have to deliver, and because of that peace with God, you know, it’s pure. It’s a pure motivation, and it’s a pure platform. It’s not, it’s not doing this for my ego. We’re not corrupt people. We’re not liars and cheaters, and so often that gets in the way of a decent person.
So the biggest thing for me is I gotta turn over the things that I can’t control, turn ’em over to that power, and I’m gonna be a lot better off. And that’s the reason why I’m not in the funny farm- … ’cause very competitive to me. It’s very serious that we know that these young wrestlers come to school here to be the best that they can be and to accomplish goals that, like me when I was young, they’ve set out to accomplish. And they chose Iowa to do that, so we have to deliver, and because of that peace with God, you know, it’s pure. It’s a pure motivation, and it’s a pure platform. It’s not, it’s not doing this for my ego. We’re not corrupt people. We’re not liars and cheaters, and so often that gets in the way of a decent person.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. First and foremost, you’re a good person, and God helps you be that.
Yeah. First and foremost, you’re a good person, and God helps you be that.
Tom Brands
Yeah, and we’re serious about wrestling.
Yeah, and we’re serious about wrestling.
Family
Lex Fridman
So a couple more questions. What’s the role of family in wrestling? You mentioned your wife, who I read turned you down when you asked her for her phone number, said, “It’s in the phone book.” That’s pretty smooth.
So a couple more questions. What’s the role of family in wrestling? You mentioned your wife, who I read turned you down when you asked her for her phone number, said, “It’s in the phone book.” That’s pretty smooth.
Tom Brands
Her story of that is that she didn’t want me to have to remember the number.
Her story of that is that she didn’t want me to have to remember the number.
Lex Fridman
Oh, she’s just being nice at this point.
Oh, she’s just being nice at this point.
Tom Brands
And I say, at this point, and I say, “There’s no way.” And I remember it very clearly. Like, “Hey, it’s in the phone book.” And I was like, “Okay, she’s blowing me off. That’s okay.”
And I say, at this point, and I say, “There’s no way.” And I remember it very clearly. Like, “Hey, it’s in the phone book.” And I was like, “Okay, she’s blowing me off. That’s okay.”
Lex Fridman
But luckily you don’t give up.
But luckily you don’t give up.
Tom Brands
Anyway, here’s the thing with family. I mean, we, we have great people in our program. We have great parents. We have a culture of parents that, that’s part of the buzz. And this class that you see wrestling right now that’s been here a year now Lee, Mirin, Castello, Warner, and then Lugo was a transfer, and I’m forgetting somebody, and I don’t wanna forget anybody. But these parents are phenomenal, and that’s a different parental culture. So the Kemerer’s dad is the same, and so there’s a lot of good there, and that’s a big, that’s a big- A big move because how we talk to parents, we don’t talk to parents to get along with them. We talk to parents to help them understand, you know, where we’re at with their sons.
Anyway, here’s the thing with family. I mean, we, we have great people in our program. We have great parents. We have a culture of parents that, that’s part of the buzz. And this class that you see wrestling right now that’s been here a year now Lee, Mirin, Castello, Warner, and then Lugo was a transfer, and I’m forgetting somebody, and I don’t wanna forget anybody. But these parents are phenomenal, and that’s a different parental culture. So the Kemerer’s dad is the same, and so there’s a lot of good there, and that’s a big, that’s a big- A big move because how we talk to parents, we don’t talk to parents to get along with them. We talk to parents to help them understand, you know, where we’re at with their sons.
Tom Brands
And when you can have a direct conversation with a parent who, helping his son or her son, the mom helping her son to be accountable and to own it, then you can get a lot accomplished, and that’s what we’ve been able to do. And so you’re solving problems, like I talked about earlier. That’s part of the family. The other part of the family is the coaches are like family. The other part of the family is the coaches’ significant others and wives are part of the family. And we fed, you know, we fed 40 guys and an entire coaching staff and wives and their children here at Thanksgiving. And that equals 70 people.
And when you can have a direct conversation with a parent who, helping his son or her son, the mom helping her son to be accountable and to own it, then you can get a lot accomplished, and that’s what we’ve been able to do. And so you’re solving problems, like I talked about earlier. That’s part of the family. The other part of the family is the coaches are like family. The other part of the family is the coaches’ significant others and wives are part of the family. And we fed, you know, we fed 40 guys and an entire coaching staff and wives and their children here at Thanksgiving. And that equals 70 people.
Tom Brands
And it’s fun. It’s fun. So family means administration. Gary Barta, my athletic director gives us everything that we need to be successful, and he has an open mind for the sport of wrestling. And wrestling’s important in Iowa, so that’s a no-brainer. But not if you’re not a wrestling guy. But he sees we do it the right way, and so the commitment is there from him. If we were doofuses, you know, he, the commitment wouldn’t be there.
And it’s fun. It’s fun. So family means administration. Gary Barta, my athletic director gives us everything that we need to be successful, and he has an open mind for the sport of wrestling. And wrestling’s important in Iowa, so that’s a no-brainer. But not if you’re not a wrestling guy. But he sees we do it the right way, and so the commitment is there from him. If we were doofuses, you know, he, the commitment wouldn’t be there.
Lex Fridman
So family is everybody’s all in. I mean, it’s from the wrestlers to the family, the significant others.
So family is everybody’s all in. I mean, it’s from the wrestlers to the family, the significant others.
Tom Brands
It goes back to what I said earlier about our people. Our people are great. Ryan Mordecai is great. Bobby Telford is great. Bobby Telford took over for a guy named Ben Berhow, who is great. Our medical team is great. Dr. Westerman, Dr. Wolf, Jesse Donnenwerth, our athletic trainer is great. Terry Brands is great. Mariah Stickley and Elise Owens, our managers are great. My daughter’s a manager as well. It’s great. They’re hardworking young women. Our Hawkeye Wrestling Club is where it needs to be in terms of how they help in their role, and now we have four women in there and that’s great. And, you know, at least one of their dads is super involved with us. But and so it’s…
It goes back to what I said earlier about our people. Our people are great. Ryan Mordecai is great. Bobby Telford is great. Bobby Telford took over for a guy named Ben Berhow, who is great. Our medical team is great. Dr. Westerman, Dr. Wolf, Jesse Donnenwerth, our athletic trainer is great. Terry Brands is great. Mariah Stickley and Elise Owens, our managers are great. My daughter’s a manager as well. It’s great. They’re hardworking young women. Our Hawkeye Wrestling Club is where it needs to be in terms of how they help in their role, and now we have four women in there and that’s great. And, you know, at least one of their dads is super involved with us. But and so it’s…
Tom Brands
One thing that I’ve learned is that you have to have that, and if you don’t have that, then you have to address it quickly. And those outliers, you know, let’s solve that problem. Let’s get it out in the open here.
One thing that I’ve learned is that you have to have that, and if you don’t have that, then you have to address it quickly. And those outliers, you know, let’s solve that problem. Let’s get it out in the open here.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Tom Brands
And if they’re, you know, if it doesn’t work out, it’s not gonna work out.
And if they’re, you know, if it doesn’t work out, it’s not gonna work out.
Lex Fridman
That’s a heck of a Thanksgiving dinner.
That’s a heck of a Thanksgiving dinner.
Tom Brands
Yeah. Next year… Well, I don’t know if it’d be legal, but- I’d have to check with our compliance and, you know, they’d have to vet you. You can come. You can come and see what it’s all about. This room is full.
Yeah. Next year… Well, I don’t know if it’d be legal, but- I’d have to check with our compliance and, you know, they’d have to vet you. You can come. You can come and see what it’s all about. This room is full.
Lex Fridman
Oh, man. Well, yeah, I’ll be back next year then.
Oh, man. Well, yeah, I’ll be back next year then.
Tom Brands
All right. Awesome.
All right. Awesome.
Brands vs Brands
Lex Fridman
Last question. In 2014, I watched this video four years ago of you competing in, I believe, your first swim meet against your brother Terry. And you came out victorious.
Last question. In 2014, I watched this video four years ago of you competing in, I believe, your first swim meet against your brother Terry. And you came out victorious.
Tom Brands
Not really.
Not really.
Lex Fridman
Okay. So let’s-
Okay. So let’s-
Tom Brands
I won the race, but-
I won the race, but-
Lex Fridman
Did you cheat?
Did you cheat?
Tom Brands
Here’s what happened. I had researched this thing because I’m, that’s how I am.
Here’s what happened. I had researched this thing because I’m, that’s how I am.
Lex Fridman
You practiced.
You practiced.
Tom Brands
No, I didn’t, but I researched it. In swimming, if you flinch on that starter block- … it’s a false start. You can’t twitch a finger and, because they would be doing that to get their buddy to move or the guy next to him, you know? So you have to be rock solid. Well, when we went, Terry was leaning forward as the gun was going off, so he’s moving. And so I was like, “No, no, no. False start. No, no, no, no.” And he couldn’t hear me. He was already in the water. And so he took off like a bat out of you know where- … for the end of the pool, and couldn’t hear me, and got to the end of the pool, and it was a down and back. Well, that’s a hard thing to do with a guy with no body fat. And so he burned a lot of energy.
No, I didn’t, but I researched it. In swimming, if you flinch on that starter block- … it’s a false start. You can’t twitch a finger and, because they would be doing that to get their buddy to move or the guy next to him, you know? So you have to be rock solid. Well, when we went, Terry was leaning forward as the gun was going off, so he’s moving. And so I was like, “No, no, no. False start. No, no, no, no.” And he couldn’t hear me. He was already in the water. And so he took off like a bat out of you know where- … for the end of the pool, and couldn’t hear me, and got to the end of the pool, and it was a down and back. Well, that’s a hard thing to do with a guy with no body fat. And so he burned a lot of energy.
Tom Brands
And he come up on that end of the pool and he was like, “Where’s, where’s he at?” ‘Cause he didn’t see me.
And he come up on that end of the pool and he was like, “Where’s, where’s he at?” ‘Cause he didn’t see me.
Lex Fridman
Huh.
Huh.
Tom Brands
And so we stopped him and then he came back and then we went another one and I beat him. But it’s the only time that, you know, I would say that he was tuckered out and that’s the reason why. And I’ll also say this, we did a time where we timed my race, the one I won, and then we timed his first down to the wall, and then we timed his, the actual race where once he hit the wall, we timed him on the way back, and he beat me. Now how’s that for being a-
And so we stopped him and then he came back and then we went another one and I beat him. But it’s the only time that, you know, I would say that he was tuckered out and that’s the reason why. And I’ll also say this, we did a time where we timed my race, the one I won, and then we timed his first down to the wall, and then we timed his, the actual race where once he hit the wall, we timed him on the way back, and he beat me. Now how’s that for being a-
Lex Fridman
That’s pretty honest.
That’s pretty honest.
Tom Brands
… honest-
… honest-
Lex Fridman
That’s pretty honest.
That’s pretty honest.
Tom Brands
… accountable- … person. And I’m gonna tell you something else, getting in those shorts- … those swimming trunks-
… accountable- … person. And I’m gonna tell you something else, getting in those shorts- … those swimming trunks-
Lex Fridman
That’s impressive.
That’s impressive.
Tom Brands
… they are tight.
… they are tight.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. So is there outside of wrestling, is there a thing that Terry got the better of you? I mean, I guess this could count as one that you’re still really bitter about that you need to avenge?
Yeah. So is there outside of wrestling, is there a thing that Terry got the better of you? I mean, I guess this could count as one that you’re still really bitter about that you need to avenge?
Tom Brands
I mean, that’s past. I mean, we, he’s got an Uno title. We have Uno World Championships. He’s got an Uno title. I have yet to have one. Morningstar has two titles. That’s unprecedented. So there’s only four trophies out there, and Terry’s got one of those and I don’t have one yet.
I mean, that’s past. I mean, we, he’s got an Uno title. We have Uno World Championships. He’s got an Uno title. I have yet to have one. Morningstar has two titles. That’s unprecedented. So there’s only four trophies out there, and Terry’s got one of those and I don’t have one yet.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Well, there’s still time. Tom, thank you so much for letting a Russian with a tie into your home. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Tom Brands. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Marcus Aurelius. “The art of living is more like wrestling than dancing.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Yeah. Well, there’s still time. Tom, thank you so much for letting a Russian with a tie into your home. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Tom Brands. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Marcus Aurelius. “The art of living is more like wrestling than dancing.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Sean Carroll: The Nature of the Universe, Life, and Intelligence | Lex Fridman Podcast #26
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #26 with Sean Carroll.
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links
that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is
human generated, and may have errors.
Here are some useful links:
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links
that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is
human generated, and may have errors.
Here are some useful links:
- Go back to this episode’s main page
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Table of Contents
Here are the loose “chapters” in the conversation.
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Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 2:21 – Understanding the universe and the mind
- 4:03 – Universe as an information processing system
- 9:34 – Simulation theory thought experiment
- 14:33 – Intelligent life in the observable universe
- 15:34 – Defining intelligent life
- 19:34 – SpaceX and space exploration
- 21:05 – Origin of life
- 29:40 – Interdisciplinary science and conversation
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Sean Carroll. He’s a theoretical physicist at Caltech, specializing in quantum mechanics, gravity, and cosmology. He’s the author of several popular books, one on the arrow of time called From Eternity to Here, one on the Higgs boson called Particle at the End of the Universe, and one on science and philosophy called The Big Picture: On the Origins of Life, Meaning, and the Universe Itself. He has an upcoming book on quantum mechanics that you can pre-order now called Something Deeply Hidden. He writes one of my favorite blogs on his website, preposterousuniverse.com.
The following is a conversation with Sean Carroll. He’s a theoretical physicist at Caltech, specializing in quantum mechanics, gravity, and cosmology. He’s the author of several popular books, one on the arrow of time called From Eternity to Here, one on the Higgs boson called Particle at the End of the Universe, and one on science and philosophy called The Big Picture: On the Origins of Life, Meaning, and the Universe Itself. He has an upcoming book on quantum mechanics that you can pre-order now called Something Deeply Hidden. He writes one of my favorite blogs on his website, preposterousuniverse.com.
Lex Fridman
I recommend clicking on the Greatest Hits link that lists accessible, interesting posts on the arrow of time, dark matter, dark energy, the Big Bang, general relativity, string theory, quantum mechanics, and the big meta questions about the philosophy of science, God, ethics, politics, academia, and much, much more. Finally, and perhaps most famously, he’s the host of a podcast called Mindscape that you should subscribe to and support on Patreon. Along with The Joe Rogan Experience, Sam Harris’s Making Sense, and Dan Carlin’s Hardcore History, Sean’s Mindscape podcast is one of my favorite ways to learn new ideas or explore different perspectives on ideas that I thought I understood. It was truly an honor to meet and spend a couple hours with Sean.
I recommend clicking on the Greatest Hits link that lists accessible, interesting posts on the arrow of time, dark matter, dark energy, the Big Bang, general relativity, string theory, quantum mechanics, and the big meta questions about the philosophy of science, God, ethics, politics, academia, and much, much more. Finally, and perhaps most famously, he’s the host of a podcast called Mindscape that you should subscribe to and support on Patreon. Along with The Joe Rogan Experience, Sam Harris’s Making Sense, and Dan Carlin’s Hardcore History, Sean’s Mindscape podcast is one of my favorite ways to learn new ideas or explore different perspectives on ideas that I thought I understood. It was truly an honor to meet and spend a couple hours with Sean.
Lex Fridman
It’s a bit heartbreaking to say that for the first time ever, the audio recorder for this podcast died in the middle of our conversation. There are technical reasons for this, having to do with phantom power, that I now understand and will avoid. It took me one hour to notice and fix the problem. So, much like the universe is 68% dark energy, roughly the same amount from this conversation was lost, except in the memories of the two people involved and in my notes. I’m sure we’ll talk again and continue this conversation on this podcast or on Sean’s, and of course, I look forward to it. This is The Artificial Intelligence Podcast. If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube, iTunes, support it on Patreon, or simply connect with me on Twitter at lexfridman.
It’s a bit heartbreaking to say that for the first time ever, the audio recorder for this podcast died in the middle of our conversation. There are technical reasons for this, having to do with phantom power, that I now understand and will avoid. It took me one hour to notice and fix the problem. So, much like the universe is 68% dark energy, roughly the same amount from this conversation was lost, except in the memories of the two people involved and in my notes. I’m sure we’ll talk again and continue this conversation on this podcast or on Sean’s, and of course, I look forward to it. This is The Artificial Intelligence Podcast. If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube, iTunes, support it on Patreon, or simply connect with me on Twitter at lexfridman.
Lex Fridman
And now, here’s my conversation with Sean Carroll.
And now, here’s my conversation with Sean Carroll.
Understanding the universe and the mind
Lex Fridman
What do you think is more interesting and impactful, understanding how the universe works at a fundamental level or understanding how the human mind works?
What do you think is more interesting and impactful, understanding how the universe works at a fundamental level or understanding how the human mind works?
Sean Carroll
You know of course, this is a crazy, meaningless, unanswerable question in some sense- … because they’re both very interesting and there’s no absolute scale of interestingness that we can rate them on. There’s the glib answer that says the human brain is part of the universe, right? And therefore, understanding the universe is more fundamental than understanding the human brain.
You know of course, this is a crazy, meaningless, unanswerable question in some sense- … because they’re both very interesting and there’s no absolute scale of interestingness that we can rate them on. There’s the glib answer that says the human brain is part of the universe, right? And therefore, understanding the universe is more fundamental than understanding the human brain.
Lex Fridman
But do you really believe that once we understand the fundamental way the universe works at the particle level, the forces, we would be able to understand how the mind works?
But do you really believe that once we understand the fundamental way the universe works at the particle level, the forces, we would be able to understand how the mind works?
Sean Carroll
No, certainly not.
No, certainly not.
Lex Fridman
All right.
All right.
Sean Carroll
We cannot understand how ice cream works just from understanding- … how particles work, right? So I’m a big believer in emergence. I’m a big believer that- … there are different ways of talking about the world beyond just the most fundamental microscopic one. You know, when we talk about tables and chairs and planets and people, we’re not talking the language of particle physics and cosmology. So, but understanding the universe, you didn’t say just at the most fundamental level, right? So understanding the universe at all levels is part of that. I do think, you know, to be a little bit more fair to the question, there probably are general principles of complexity, biology, information processing, memory, knowledge, creativity that go beyond just the human brain, right?
We cannot understand how ice cream works just from understanding- … how particles work, right? So I’m a big believer in emergence. I’m a big believer that- … there are different ways of talking about the world beyond just the most fundamental microscopic one. You know, when we talk about tables and chairs and planets and people, we’re not talking the language of particle physics and cosmology. So, but understanding the universe, you didn’t say just at the most fundamental level, right? So understanding the universe at all levels is part of that. I do think, you know, to be a little bit more fair to the question, there probably are general principles of complexity, biology, information processing, memory, knowledge, creativity that go beyond just the human brain, right?
Sean Carroll
And maybe one could count understanding those as part of understanding the universe. The human brain, as far as we know, is the most complex thing in the universe. So it’s certainly absurd to think that by understanding the fundamental laws of particle physics, you get any direct insight on how the brain works.
And maybe one could count understanding those as part of understanding the universe. The human brain, as far as we know, is the most complex thing in the universe. So it’s certainly absurd to think that by understanding the fundamental laws of particle physics, you get any direct insight on how the brain works.
Universe as an information processing system
Lex Fridman
But then there’s this step from the fundamentals of particle physics to information processing- … which a lot of physicists and philosophers maybe a little bit carelessly take when they talk about artificial intelligence. Do you think of the universe as a kind of a computational device?
But then there’s this step from the fundamentals of particle physics to information processing- … which a lot of physicists and philosophers maybe a little bit carelessly take when they talk about artificial intelligence. Do you think of the universe as a kind of a computational device?
Sean Carroll
No. To be, like, the honest answer there is no. There’s a sense in which the universe processes information, clearly. There’s a sense in which the universe is like a computer, clearly. But in some sense, I think I tried to say this once on my blog and no one agreed with me, but the universe is more like a computation than a computer because the universe happens once. A computer is a general purpose machine, right? That you can ask it different questions, even a pocket calculator, right? And it’s set up to answer certain kinds of questions. The universe isn’t that. So information processing happens in the universe, but it’s not what the universe is.
No. To be, like, the honest answer there is no. There’s a sense in which the universe processes information, clearly. There’s a sense in which the universe is like a computer, clearly. But in some sense, I think I tried to say this once on my blog and no one agreed with me, but the universe is more like a computation than a computer because the universe happens once. A computer is a general purpose machine, right? That you can ask it different questions, even a pocket calculator, right? And it’s set up to answer certain kinds of questions. The universe isn’t that. So information processing happens in the universe, but it’s not what the universe is.
Lex Fridman
Because-
Because-
Sean Carroll
And I know your MIT colleague, Seth Lloyd, feels very differently about this, right?
And I know your MIT colleague, Seth Lloyd, feels very differently about this, right?
Lex Fridman
Well, you’re thinking of the universe as a closed system.
Well, you’re thinking of the universe as a closed system.
Sean Carroll
I am.
I am.
Lex Fridman
So, so, so what, what makes a computer more like a, like a PC like a computing machine is that there’s a human that every once c- comes up to it and moves the mouse around. So input-
So, so, so what, what makes a computer more like a, like a PC like a computing machine is that there’s a human that every once c- comes up to it and moves the mouse around. So input-
Sean Carroll
Gives it input.
Gives it input.
Lex Fridman
… gives it input. And that’s why you’re saying it’s just a computation, a deterministic thing that’s just unrolling. But the immense complexity of it is nevertheless like processing. There’s a state, and then it changes with rules, and there’s a sense for a lot of people that if the brain operates, the human brain operates within that world, then it’s simply just a small subset of that. And so there’s no reason we can’t build arbitrarily great intelligences. Do you think of intelligence in this way?
… gives it input. And that’s why you’re saying it’s just a computation, a deterministic thing that’s just unrolling. But the immense complexity of it is nevertheless like processing. There’s a state, and then it changes with rules, and there’s a sense for a lot of people that if the brain operates, the human brain operates within that world, then it’s simply just a small subset of that. And so there’s no reason we can’t build arbitrarily great intelligences. Do you think of intelligence in this way?
Sean Carroll
Intelligence is tricky. I don’t have a definition of it offhand. So I remember this panel discussion that I saw on YouTube. I wasn’t there, but Seth Lloyd was on the panel, and so was Martin Rees, the famous astrophysicist, and Seth gave his shtick for why the universe is a computer, and he explained this, and Martin Rees said, “So what is not a computer?” And Seth was like, “Uh, that’s a good question. I’m not sure,” because if you have a sufficiently broad definition of what a computer is, then everything is, right? And the simile or the analogy gains force when it excludes some things. You know, is the moon going around the Earth performing a computation?
Intelligence is tricky. I don’t have a definition of it offhand. So I remember this panel discussion that I saw on YouTube. I wasn’t there, but Seth Lloyd was on the panel, and so was Martin Rees, the famous astrophysicist, and Seth gave his shtick for why the universe is a computer, and he explained this, and Martin Rees said, “So what is not a computer?” And Seth was like, “Uh, that’s a good question. I’m not sure,” because if you have a sufficiently broad definition of what a computer is, then everything is, right? And the simile or the analogy gains force when it excludes some things. You know, is the moon going around the Earth performing a computation?
Sean Carroll
I can come up with definitions in which the answer is yes, but it’s not a very useful computation. I think that it’s absolutely helpful to think about the universe in certain situations, certain contexts as an information processing device. I’m even guilty of writing a paper called Quantum Circuit Cosmology, where we modeled the whole universe as a quantum circuit.
I can come up with definitions in which the answer is yes, but it’s not a very useful computation. I think that it’s absolutely helpful to think about the universe in certain situations, certain contexts as an information processing device. I’m even guilty of writing a paper called Quantum Circuit Cosmology, where we modeled the whole universe as a quantum circuit.
Lex Fridman
As a circuit.
As a circuit.
Sean Carroll
As a circuit, yeah. And–
As a circuit, yeah. And–
Lex Fridman
With qubits kind of thing?
With qubits kind of thing?
Sean Carroll
With qubits, basically, right, yeah. So, and qubits becoming more and more entangled. So do we wanna, do you wanna digress a little bit? ‘Cause this is–
With qubits, basically, right, yeah. So, and qubits becoming more and more entangled. So do we wanna, do you wanna digress a little bit? ‘Cause this is–
Lex Fridman
Let’s do it.
Let’s do it.
Sean Carroll
… kind of fun. So here’s a mystery about the universe that is so deep and profound that nobody talks about it. Space expands, right? And we talk about in a certain region of space, a certain number of degrees of freedom, a certain number of ways that the quantum fields and the particles in that region can arrange themselves, that that number of degrees of freedom in a region of space is arguably finite. We actually don’t know-
… kind of fun. So here’s a mystery about the universe that is so deep and profound that nobody talks about it. Space expands, right? And we talk about in a certain region of space, a certain number of degrees of freedom, a certain number of ways that the quantum fields and the particles in that region can arrange themselves, that that number of degrees of freedom in a region of space is arguably finite. We actually don’t know-
Sean Carroll
… how many there are, but there’s a very good argument that says it’s a finite number. So as the universe expands and space gets bigger, are there more degrees of freedom? If it’s an infinite number, it doesn’t really matter. Infinity times two is still infinity, but if it’s a finite number, then there’s more space, so there’s more degrees of freedom. So where did they come from? That would mean the universe is not a closed system. There’s more degrees of freedom popping into existence.
… how many there are, but there’s a very good argument that says it’s a finite number. So as the universe expands and space gets bigger, are there more degrees of freedom? If it’s an infinite number, it doesn’t really matter. Infinity times two is still infinity, but if it’s a finite number, then there’s more space, so there’s more degrees of freedom. So where did they come from? That would mean the universe is not a closed system. There’s more degrees of freedom popping into existence.
Sean Carroll
So what we suggested was that there are more degrees of freedom, and it’s not that they’re not there to start, but they’re not entangled to start. So the universe that you and I know of, the three dimensions around us that we see, we said those are the entangled degrees of freedom making up spacetime. And as the universe expands, there are a whole bunch of qubits in their zero state that become entangled with the rest of spacetime through the action of these quantum circuits.
So what we suggested was that there are more degrees of freedom, and it’s not that they’re not there to start, but they’re not entangled to start. So the universe that you and I know of, the three dimensions around us that we see, we said those are the entangled degrees of freedom making up spacetime. And as the universe expands, there are a whole bunch of qubits in their zero state that become entangled with the rest of spacetime through the action of these quantum circuits.
Lex Fridman
So what does it mean that there’s now more degrees of freedom as they become more entangled?
So what does it mean that there’s now more degrees of freedom as they become more entangled?
Sean Carroll
Yeah. So the-
Yeah. So the-
Lex Fridman
As the universe expands?
As the universe expands?
Sean Carroll
That’s right. So there’s more and more degrees of freedom that are entangled, that are playing part– playing the role or part of the entangled spacetime structure. So the basic– the underlying philosophy is that spacetime itself arises from the entanglement of some fundamental quantum degrees of freedom.
That’s right. So there’s more and more degrees of freedom that are entangled, that are playing part– playing the role or part of the entangled spacetime structure. So the basic– the underlying philosophy is that spacetime itself arises from the entanglement of some fundamental quantum degrees of freedom.
Lex Fridman
Wow. Okay. So- … At which point is most of the entanglement happening? Are we talking about close to the Big Bang? Are we talking about throughout the time of the life of the-
Wow. Okay. So- … At which point is most of the entanglement happening? Are we talking about close to the Big Bang? Are we talking about throughout the time of the life of the-
Sean Carroll
Throughout history. Yeah. So the idea is that at the Big Bang, almost all the degrees of freedom that the universe could have were there, but they were unentangled with anything else. And that’s a reflection of the fact that the Big Bang had a low entropy. It was a very simple, very small place, and as space expands, more and more degrees of freedom become entangled with the rest of the world.
Throughout history. Yeah. So the idea is that at the Big Bang, almost all the degrees of freedom that the universe could have were there, but they were unentangled with anything else. And that’s a reflection of the fact that the Big Bang had a low entropy. It was a very simple, very small place, and as space expands, more and more degrees of freedom become entangled with the rest of the world.
Simulation theory thought experiment
Lex Fridman
Well, I have to ask, Sean Carroll, what do you think of the thought experiment from Nick Bostrom that we’re living in a simulation? So I think– let me contextualize that a little bit more. I think people don’t actually take this thought experiment … I think it’s quite interesting. It’s not very useful, but it’s quite interesting from the perspective of AI, a lot of the learning that can be done usually happens in simulation- … from artificial examples. And so it’s a constructive question to ask how difficult is our real world to simulate? Which is kind of a dual part of if we’re living in a simulation and somebody built that simulation, how hard– if you were to try to do it yourself, how hard would it be?
Well, I have to ask, Sean Carroll, what do you think of the thought experiment from Nick Bostrom that we’re living in a simulation? So I think– let me contextualize that a little bit more. I think people don’t actually take this thought experiment … I think it’s quite interesting. It’s not very useful, but it’s quite interesting from the perspective of AI, a lot of the learning that can be done usually happens in simulation- … from artificial examples. And so it’s a constructive question to ask how difficult is our real world to simulate? Which is kind of a dual part of if we’re living in a simulation and somebody built that simulation, how hard– if you were to try to do it yourself, how hard would it be?
Sean Carroll
So obviously we could be living in a simulation. If you just want the physical possibility, then I completely agree that it’s physically possible. I don’t think that we actually are. So take this one piece of data into consideration. You know, we live in a big universe.
So obviously we could be living in a simulation. If you just want the physical possibility, then I completely agree that it’s physically possible. I don’t think that we actually are. So take this one piece of data into consideration. You know, we live in a big universe.
Sean Carroll
Okay? There’s two trillion galaxies in our observable universe with two hundred billion stars in each galaxy, et cetera. It would seem to be a waste of resources to have a universe that big going on just to do a simulation. So in other words, I wanna be a good Bayesian. I wanna ask, under this hypothesis, what do I expect to see? So the first thing I would say is I wouldn’t expect to see a universe that was that big. Okay? The second thing is I wouldn’t expect the resolution of the universe to be as good as it is. So it’s always possible that if our superhuman simulators only have finite resources, that they don’t render the entire universe, right? That the part that is out there, the two trillion galaxies isn’t actually being simulated fully. Okay.
Okay? There’s two trillion galaxies in our observable universe with two hundred billion stars in each galaxy, et cetera. It would seem to be a waste of resources to have a universe that big going on just to do a simulation. So in other words, I wanna be a good Bayesian. I wanna ask, under this hypothesis, what do I expect to see? So the first thing I would say is I wouldn’t expect to see a universe that was that big. Okay? The second thing is I wouldn’t expect the resolution of the universe to be as good as it is. So it’s always possible that if our superhuman simulators only have finite resources, that they don’t render the entire universe, right? That the part that is out there, the two trillion galaxies isn’t actually being simulated fully. Okay.
Sean Carroll
But then the obvious extrapolation of that is that only I am being simulated fully, like the rest of you are just non-player characters, right? I’m the only thing that is real. The rest of you are just chatbots. Beyond this wall, I see the wall, but there is literally nothing on the other side of the wall. That is sort of the Bayesian prediction. That’s what it would be like to do an efficient simulation of me. So, like, none of that seems quite realistic. The– I don’t see… I hear the argument that it’s just possible and easy to simulate lots of things. I don’t see any evidence from what we know about our universe that we look like a simulated universe. Now, maybe you can say, “Well, we don’t know what it would look like,” but that’s just abandoning your Bayesian responsibilities.
But then the obvious extrapolation of that is that only I am being simulated fully, like the rest of you are just non-player characters, right? I’m the only thing that is real. The rest of you are just chatbots. Beyond this wall, I see the wall, but there is literally nothing on the other side of the wall. That is sort of the Bayesian prediction. That’s what it would be like to do an efficient simulation of me. So, like, none of that seems quite realistic. The– I don’t see… I hear the argument that it’s just possible and easy to simulate lots of things. I don’t see any evidence from what we know about our universe that we look like a simulated universe. Now, maybe you can say, “Well, we don’t know what it would look like,” but that’s just abandoning your Bayesian responsibilities.
Sean Carroll
Like, your job is to say, “Under this theory, here’s what you would expect to see.”
Like, your job is to say, “Under this theory, here’s what you would expect to see.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. So certainly if you think about simulation as a thing that’s like a video game where only a small subset is being rendered, but say the entire, all the laws of physics it- the entire closed system of the, quote-unquote, “universe”- … it had a creator.
Yeah. So certainly if you think about simulation as a thing that’s like a video game where only a small subset is being rendered, but say the entire, all the laws of physics it- the entire closed system of the, quote-unquote, “universe”- … it had a creator.
Sean Carroll
Yeah. It’s always possible.
Yeah. It’s always possible.
Lex Fridman
Right. So that’s not useful to think about when you’re thinking about physics the way Nick Bostrom phrases it. If, is it, if it’s possible to simulate a universe, eventually we’ll do it. You can use that, by the way, for a lot of things. But I guess the question is how hard is it to create a universe?
Right. So that’s not useful to think about when you’re thinking about physics the way Nick Bostrom phrases it. If, is it, if it’s possible to simulate a universe, eventually we’ll do it. You can use that, by the way, for a lot of things. But I guess the question is how hard is it to create a universe?
Sean Carroll
I wrote a little blog post about this, and maybe I’m missing something, but there’s an argument that says not only that it might be possible to simulate a universe, but probably if you imagine that you actually attribute consciousness and agency to the little things that we’re simulating, to our little artificial beings, there’s probably a lot more of them than there are ordinary organic beings in the universe, or there will be in the future, right? So there’s an argument that not only is being a simulation possible, it’s probable-
I wrote a little blog post about this, and maybe I’m missing something, but there’s an argument that says not only that it might be possible to simulate a universe, but probably if you imagine that you actually attribute consciousness and agency to the little things that we’re simulating, to our little artificial beings, there’s probably a lot more of them than there are ordinary organic beings in the universe, or there will be in the future, right? So there’s an argument that not only is being a simulation possible, it’s probable-
Sean Carroll
because in the space of all living consciousnesses, most of them are being simulated, right? Most of them are not at the top level. I think that argument must be wrong because it follows from that argument that, you know, if we’re simulated, but we can also simulate other things, well, but if we can simulate other things, they can simulate other things, right? If we give them enough power and resolution, and ultimately we’ll reach a bottom because the laws of physics in our universe have a bottom. We’re made of atoms and so forth. So there will be the cheapest possible simulations, and if you believe the original argument, you should conclude that we should be in the cheapest possible simulation ’cause that’s where most people are, but we don’t look like that.
because in the space of all living consciousnesses, most of them are being simulated, right? Most of them are not at the top level. I think that argument must be wrong because it follows from that argument that, you know, if we’re simulated, but we can also simulate other things, well, but if we can simulate other things, they can simulate other things, right? If we give them enough power and resolution, and ultimately we’ll reach a bottom because the laws of physics in our universe have a bottom. We’re made of atoms and so forth. So there will be the cheapest possible simulations, and if you believe the original argument, you should conclude that we should be in the cheapest possible simulation ’cause that’s where most people are, but we don’t look like that.
Sean Carroll
It doesn’t look at all like we’re at the edge of resolution, you know, we’re, that we’re 16-bit, you know, things. But it seems much easier to make much lower level things than we are. So, and also I question the whole approach to the anthropic principle that says we are typical observers in the universe. I think that that’s not actually… I think that there’s a lot of selection that we can do that we’re typical within things we already know, but not typical within all the universe.
It doesn’t look at all like we’re at the edge of resolution, you know, we’re, that we’re 16-bit, you know, things. But it seems much easier to make much lower level things than we are. So, and also I question the whole approach to the anthropic principle that says we are typical observers in the universe. I think that that’s not actually… I think that there’s a lot of selection that we can do that we’re typical within things we already know, but not typical within all the universe.
Intelligent life in the observable universe
Lex Fridman
So do you think there’s intelligent life, however you would like to define intelligent life, out there in the universe?
So do you think there’s intelligent life, however you would like to define intelligent life, out there in the universe?
Sean Carroll
My guess is that there is not intelligent life in the observable universe other than us, simply on the basis of the fact that the likely number of other intelligent species in the observable universe, there’s two likely numbers, zero or billions. And if there had been billions, you would have noticed already. To, for there to be literally like a small number, like, you know, Star Trek, there’s, you know, a dozen intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, but not a billion, that, that’s weird. That’s sort of bizarre to me. It’s easy for me to imagine that there are zero others because there’s just a big bottleneck to making multicellular life or technological life or whatever. It’s very hard for me to imagine that there’s a whole bunch out there that have somehow been hidden from us.
My guess is that there is not intelligent life in the observable universe other than us, simply on the basis of the fact that the likely number of other intelligent species in the observable universe, there’s two likely numbers, zero or billions. And if there had been billions, you would have noticed already. To, for there to be literally like a small number, like, you know, Star Trek, there’s, you know, a dozen intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, but not a billion, that, that’s weird. That’s sort of bizarre to me. It’s easy for me to imagine that there are zero others because there’s just a big bottleneck to making multicellular life or technological life or whatever. It’s very hard for me to imagine that there’s a whole bunch out there that have somehow been hidden from us.
Defining intelligent life
Lex Fridman
The question I’d like to ask is what would intelligent life look like? What I mean by that question and where it’s going is what if intelligent life is in some very big ways different than our, the one that has on- … is on Earth. That there’s all kinds of intelligent life that operates in different scales of both size and temporal.
The question I’d like to ask is what would intelligent life look like? What I mean by that question and where it’s going is what if intelligent life is in some very big ways different than our, the one that has on- … is on Earth. That there’s all kinds of intelligent life that operates in different scales of both size and temporal.
Sean Carroll
Right. That’s a great possibility because I think we should be humble about what intelligence is, what life is. We don’t even agree on what life is, much less- … what intelligent life is, right? So that’s an argument for humility saying there could be intelligent life of a very different character, right? Like you could imagine that dolphins are intelligent but never invent space travel ’cause they live in the ocean and they don’t have thumbs, right? So they never invent technology, they never invent smelting. Maybe the universe is full of intelligent species that just don’t make technology, right? That’s compatible with the data, I think. And I think maybe what you’re pointing at is even more out there versions of intelligence.
Right. That’s a great possibility because I think we should be humble about what intelligence is, what life is. We don’t even agree on what life is, much less- … what intelligent life is, right? So that’s an argument for humility saying there could be intelligent life of a very different character, right? Like you could imagine that dolphins are intelligent but never invent space travel ’cause they live in the ocean and they don’t have thumbs, right? So they never invent technology, they never invent smelting. Maybe the universe is full of intelligent species that just don’t make technology, right? That’s compatible with the data, I think. And I think maybe what you’re pointing at is even more out there versions of intelligence.
Sean Carroll
You know, intelligence in intermolecular clouds or on the surface of a neutron star or in between the galaxies in giant things where the equivalent of a heartbeat is a hundred million years. On the one hand, yes, we should be very open-minded about those things. On the other hand, we all, all of us share the same laws of physics. There might be something about the laws of physics, even though we don’t currently know exactly what that thing would be, that makes meters and years the right length and timescales for intelligent life. Maybe not-
You know, intelligence in intermolecular clouds or on the surface of a neutron star or in between the galaxies in giant things where the equivalent of a heartbeat is a hundred million years. On the one hand, yes, we should be very open-minded about those things. On the other hand, we all, all of us share the same laws of physics. There might be something about the laws of physics, even though we don’t currently know exactly what that thing would be, that makes meters and years the right length and timescales for intelligent life. Maybe not-
Sean Carroll
… but, you know, we’re made of atoms. Atoms have a certain size. We orbit stars. Stars have a certain lifetime. It’s not impossible to me that there’s a sweet spot for intelligent life that we find ourselves in. So I’m open-minded either way. I’m open-minded either being humble and there’s all sorts of different kinds of life, or no, there’s a reason we just don’t know it yet why life like ours is the kind of life that’s out there.
… but, you know, we’re made of atoms. Atoms have a certain size. We orbit stars. Stars have a certain lifetime. It’s not impossible to me that there’s a sweet spot for intelligent life that we find ourselves in. So I’m open-minded either way. I’m open-minded either being humble and there’s all sorts of different kinds of life, or no, there’s a reason we just don’t know it yet why life like ours is the kind of life that’s out there.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I’m of two minds too, but I often wonder if our brain is just designed to quite obviously operate and see the world on these timescales and we’re almost blind and the tools we’ve created for detecting things are blind- … to the kind of observation needed to see intelligent life at other scales.
Yeah, I’m of two minds too, but I often wonder if our brain is just designed to quite obviously operate and see the world on these timescales and we’re almost blind and the tools we’ve created for detecting things are blind- … to the kind of observation needed to see intelligent life at other scales.
Sean Carroll
Well, I’m totally open to that, but so here’s another argument I would make. You know, we have looked for intelligent life, but we’ve looked for it in the dumbest way we can- … by turning radio telescopes to the sky. Why in the world would a super advanced civilization randomly beam out radio signals wastefully in all directions into the universe? That just doesn’t make any sense, especially because in order to think that you would actually contact another civilization, you would have to do it forever. You would have to keep doing it for millions of years. That sounds like a waste of resources. If you thought that there were other solar systems with planets around them where maybe intelligent life didn’t yet exist, but might someday-
Well, I’m totally open to that, but so here’s another argument I would make. You know, we have looked for intelligent life, but we’ve looked for it in the dumbest way we can- … by turning radio telescopes to the sky. Why in the world would a super advanced civilization randomly beam out radio signals wastefully in all directions into the universe? That just doesn’t make any sense, especially because in order to think that you would actually contact another civilization, you would have to do it forever. You would have to keep doing it for millions of years. That sounds like a waste of resources. If you thought that there were other solar systems with planets around them where maybe intelligent life didn’t yet exist, but might someday-
Sean Carroll
… you wouldn’t try to talk to it with radio waves. You would send a spacecraft out there, and you would park it around there, and it would be like, from our point of view, it’d be like “2001,” where there’s, you know, a monolith.
… you wouldn’t try to talk to it with radio waves. You would send a spacecraft out there, and you would park it around there, and it would be like, from our point of view, it’d be like “2001,” where there’s, you know, a monolith.
Lex Fridman
Monolith.
Monolith.
Sean Carroll
So there could be an artifact. In fact, the other way works also, right? There could be artifacts in our solar system that have been put there by other technologically advanced civilizations, and that’s how we will eventually contact them. And we just haven’t explored the solar system well enough yet to find them. The reason why we don’t think about that is ’cause we’re young and impatient, right? Like, it would take more than my lifetime to actually send something to another star system and wait for it and then come back. So but if we start thinking on hundreds of thousands of years or million-year timescales, that’s clearly the right thing to do.
So there could be an artifact. In fact, the other way works also, right? There could be artifacts in our solar system that have been put there by other technologically advanced civilizations, and that’s how we will eventually contact them. And we just haven’t explored the solar system well enough yet to find them. The reason why we don’t think about that is ’cause we’re young and impatient, right? Like, it would take more than my lifetime to actually send something to another star system and wait for it and then come back. So but if we start thinking on hundreds of thousands of years or million-year timescales, that’s clearly the right thing to do.
SpaceX and space exploration
Lex Fridman
Are you excited by the thing that Elon Musk is doing with SpaceX in general with the idea of space exploration, even though your or your species is young and impatient?
Are you excited by the thing that Elon Musk is doing with SpaceX in general with the idea of space exploration, even though your or your species is young and impatient?
Sean Carroll
Yeah. No, I do think that space travel is crucially important long term, even to other star systems. And I think that many people overestimate the difficulty because they say, “Look, if you travel one percent the speed of light to another star system, we’ll be dead before you get there,” right? And I think that it’s much easier, and therefore, when they write their science fiction stories, they imagine we can go faster than the speed of light, ’cause otherwise they’re too impatient, right? We’re not gonna go faster than the speed of light, but we could easily imagine that the human lifespan gets extended to thousands of years.
Yeah. No, I do think that space travel is crucially important long term, even to other star systems. And I think that many people overestimate the difficulty because they say, “Look, if you travel one percent the speed of light to another star system, we’ll be dead before you get there,” right? And I think that it’s much easier, and therefore, when they write their science fiction stories, they imagine we can go faster than the speed of light, ’cause otherwise they’re too impatient, right? We’re not gonna go faster than the speed of light, but we could easily imagine that the human lifespan gets extended to thousands of years.
Sean Carroll
And once you do that, then the stars are much closer effectively, right? I mean, what’s a hundred-year trip, right? So I think that that’s gonna be the future, the far future, not my lifetime, once again, but baby steps and-
And once you do that, then the stars are much closer effectively, right? I mean, what’s a hundred-year trip, right? So I think that that’s gonna be the future, the far future, not my lifetime, once again, but baby steps and-
Lex Fridman
Unless your lifetime gets extended.
Unless your lifetime gets extended.
Sean Carroll
Well, it’s in a race against time, right? A friend of mine who actually thinks about these things said, “You know you and I are gonna die, but I don’t know about our grandchildren.” That’s, I don’t know, predicting the future is hard, but that’s at least a plausible scenario. And so, yeah, no, I think that as we discussed earlier, there are threats to the Earth, known and unknown, right? Having spread humanity and biology elsewhere is a really important long-term goal.
Well, it’s in a race against time, right? A friend of mine who actually thinks about these things said, “You know you and I are gonna die, but I don’t know about our grandchildren.” That’s, I don’t know, predicting the future is hard, but that’s at least a plausible scenario. And so, yeah, no, I think that as we discussed earlier, there are threats to the Earth, known and unknown, right? Having spread humanity and biology elsewhere is a really important long-term goal.
Origin of life
Lex Fridman
What kind of questions can science not currently answer but might soon? When you– when you think about the problems and the mysteries before us- … that may be within reach of science.
What kind of questions can science not currently answer but might soon? When you– when you think about the problems and the mysteries before us- … that may be within reach of science.
Sean Carroll
I think an obvious one is the origin of life. We don’t know how that happened. There’s a difficulty in knowing how it happened historically, actually, you know, literally on Earth, but starting life from non-life is something I kinda think we’re close to, right? We’re really-
I think an obvious one is the origin of life. We don’t know how that happened. There’s a difficulty in knowing how it happened historically, actually, you know, literally on Earth, but starting life from non-life is something I kinda think we’re close to, right? We’re really-
Lex Fridman
You really think so? How– like, how difficult is it to start life?
You really think so? How– like, how difficult is it to start life?
Sean Carroll
I do. I do. Well, I’ve talked to people, including on the podcast, about this. You know, life requires three things, life as we know it. So there’s a difference between life, which who knows what it is, and life as we know it, which we can talk about with some intelligence. So life as we know it requires compartmentalization. You need, like, a little membrane around your cell. Metabolism, you take in food and eat it and let that make you do things. And then replication, okay? So you need to have some information about who you are that you pass down to future generations. In the lab, compartmentalization seems pretty easy, not hard to make lipid bilayers that come into little cellular walls pretty easily. Metabolism and replication are hard, but replication we’re close to.
I do. I do. Well, I’ve talked to people, including on the podcast, about this. You know, life requires three things, life as we know it. So there’s a difference between life, which who knows what it is, and life as we know it, which we can talk about with some intelligence. So life as we know it requires compartmentalization. You need, like, a little membrane around your cell. Metabolism, you take in food and eat it and let that make you do things. And then replication, okay? So you need to have some information about who you are that you pass down to future generations. In the lab, compartmentalization seems pretty easy, not hard to make lipid bilayers that come into little cellular walls pretty easily. Metabolism and replication are hard, but replication we’re close to.
Sean Carroll
People have made RNA-like molecules in the lab that I think the state-of-the-art is they’re not able to make one molecule that reproduces itself, but they’re able to make two molecules that reproduce each other. So that’s okay. That’s pretty close.
People have made RNA-like molecules in the lab that I think the state-of-the-art is they’re not able to make one molecule that reproduces itself, but they’re able to make two molecules that reproduce each other. So that’s okay. That’s pretty close.
Sean Carroll
Metabolism is harder, believe it or not, even though it’s sort of the most obvious thing, but you want some sort of controlled metabolism, and the actual cellular machinery in our bodies is quite complicated. It’s hard to see it just popping into existence all by itself. It probably took a while. But we’re making progress. And in fact, I don’t think we’re spending nearly enough money on it. If I were the NSF, I would flood this area with money ’cause it would change our view of the world if we could actually make life in the lab and understand how it was made originally here on Earth.
Metabolism is harder, believe it or not, even though it’s sort of the most obvious thing, but you want some sort of controlled metabolism, and the actual cellular machinery in our bodies is quite complicated. It’s hard to see it just popping into existence all by itself. It probably took a while. But we’re making progress. And in fact, I don’t think we’re spending nearly enough money on it. If I were the NSF, I would flood this area with money ’cause it would change our view of the world if we could actually make life in the lab and understand how it was made originally here on Earth.
Lex Fridman
And I’m sure it would have some ripple effects that help cure disease and so on. I mean just that understanding-
And I’m sure it would have some ripple effects that help cure disease and so on. I mean just that understanding-
Sean Carroll
Well, that’s right. So synthetic biology is a wonderful big frontier where we’re making cells. Right now, the best way to do that is to borrow heavily from existing biology, right? Craig Venter several years ago created an artificial cell, but all he did was– not all he did, it was a tremendous accomplishment, but all he did was take out the DNA from a cell and put in entirely new DNA and let it boot up and go.
Well, that’s right. So synthetic biology is a wonderful big frontier where we’re making cells. Right now, the best way to do that is to borrow heavily from existing biology, right? Craig Venter several years ago created an artificial cell, but all he did was– not all he did, it was a tremendous accomplishment, but all he did was take out the DNA from a cell and put in entirely new DNA and let it boot up and go.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. What about the leap to creating intelligent life on Earth? However, again, we define intelligence, of course, but let’s just even say Homo sapiens, the modern, the modern intelligence in our human brain. Do you have a sense of what’s involved in that leap and how big of a leap that is?
Mm-hmm. What about the leap to creating intelligent life on Earth? However, again, we define intelligence, of course, but let’s just even say Homo sapiens, the modern, the modern intelligence in our human brain. Do you have a sense of what’s involved in that leap and how big of a leap that is?
Sean Carroll
So AI would count in this, or you really want life? You want really an organism in some sense.
So AI would count in this, or you really want life? You want really an organism in some sense.
Lex Fridman
Uh, AI would count, I think. If, if– Yeah, of course. Of course, AI would count, but-
Uh, AI would count, I think. If, if– Yeah, of course. Of course, AI would count, but-
Sean Carroll
Well, let’s say artificial consciousness, right? So I do not think we are on the threshold of creating artificial consciousness. I think it’s possible. I’m not, again, very educated about how close we are, but my impression is not that we’re really close because we understand how little we understand of consciousness and what it is. So if we don’t have any idea what it is, it’s hard to imagine we’re on the threshold of making it… ourselves but it’s doable. It’s possible. I don’t see any obstacles in principle, so yeah, I would hold out some interest in that happening eventually.
Well, let’s say artificial consciousness, right? So I do not think we are on the threshold of creating artificial consciousness. I think it’s possible. I’m not, again, very educated about how close we are, but my impression is not that we’re really close because we understand how little we understand of consciousness and what it is. So if we don’t have any idea what it is, it’s hard to imagine we’re on the threshold of making it… ourselves but it’s doable. It’s possible. I don’t see any obstacles in principle, so yeah, I would hold out some interest in that happening eventually.
Lex Fridman
I think in general, consciousness I think we’ll be just surprised how easy consciousness is once we create intelligence. I think consciousness is a thing that’s just something we all fake.
I think in general, consciousness I think we’ll be just surprised how easy consciousness is once we create intelligence. I think consciousness is a thing that’s just something we all fake.
Sean Carroll
Well, good. No, actually, I like this idea that in fact consciousness is way less mysterious than we think- … because we’re all at every time, at every moment less conscious than we think we are, right? We can fool things, and I think that plus the idea that you not only have artificial intelligent systems, but you put them in a body, right? Give them a robot body. That will help the faking a lot.
Well, good. No, actually, I like this idea that in fact consciousness is way less mysterious than we think- … because we’re all at every time, at every moment less conscious than we think we are, right? We can fool things, and I think that plus the idea that you not only have artificial intelligent systems, but you put them in a body, right? Give them a robot body. That will help the faking a lot.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think creating consciousness in artificial consciousness is as simple as asking a Roomba to say, “I’m conscious”… and refusing to be talked out of it.
Yeah, I think creating consciousness in artificial consciousness is as simple as asking a Roomba to say, “I’m conscious”… and refusing to be talked out of it.
Sean Carroll
Could be. It could be.
Could be. It could be.
Lex Fridman
And I mean that – I’m almost being silly, but that’s what we do. … That’s what we do with each other. This, the kind of consciousness is also a social construct, and a lot of our ideas of intelligence is a social construct, and so reaching that bar involves something that’s beyond, that doesn’t necessarily involve the fundamental understanding of how you go from electrons to neurons to cognition.
And I mean that – I’m almost being silly, but that’s what we do. … That’s what we do with each other. This, the kind of consciousness is also a social construct, and a lot of our ideas of intelligence is a social construct, and so reaching that bar involves something that’s beyond, that doesn’t necessarily involve the fundamental understanding of how you go from electrons to neurons to cognition.
Sean Carroll
No, actually, I think that is a extremely good point, and in fact, what it suggests is, you know, so yeah, you referred to Kate, Kate Darling, who I had on the podcast – … and who does these experiments with very simple robots, but they look like animals, and they can look like they’re experiencing pain, and we human beings react very negatively to these little robots looking like they’re experiencing pain. And what you wanna say is, “Yeah, but they’re just robots. It’s not really pain,” right? It’s just some electrons going around. But then you realize, you know, you and I are just electrons going around, and that’s what pain is also.
No, actually, I think that is a extremely good point, and in fact, what it suggests is, you know, so yeah, you referred to Kate, Kate Darling, who I had on the podcast – … and who does these experiments with very simple robots, but they look like animals, and they can look like they’re experiencing pain, and we human beings react very negatively to these little robots looking like they’re experiencing pain. And what you wanna say is, “Yeah, but they’re just robots. It’s not really pain,” right? It’s just some electrons going around. But then you realize, you know, you and I are just electrons going around, and that’s what pain is also.
Sean Carroll
And so what I would have an easy time imagining is that there is a spectrum between these simple little robots that Kate works with and a human being, where there are things that sort of by some strict definition, Turing test level thing, are not conscious, but nevertheless walk and talk like they’re conscious, and it could be that the future is… I mean, Siri is close, right? And so it might be the future has a lot more agents like that, and in fact, rather than someday going, “Aha, we have consciousness,” we’ll just creep up on it with more and more accurate reflections of what we expect.
And so what I would have an easy time imagining is that there is a spectrum between these simple little robots that Kate works with and a human being, where there are things that sort of by some strict definition, Turing test level thing, are not conscious, but nevertheless walk and talk like they’re conscious, and it could be that the future is… I mean, Siri is close, right? And so it might be the future has a lot more agents like that, and in fact, rather than someday going, “Aha, we have consciousness,” we’ll just creep up on it with more and more accurate reflections of what we expect.
Lex Fridman
And in the future, maybe the present, for example, we haven’t met before, and you’re may- basically assuming that I’m human as it’s-
And in the future, maybe the present, for example, we haven’t met before, and you’re may- basically assuming that I’m human as it’s-
Sean Carroll
I give it a high probability.
I give it a high probability.
Lex Fridman
At this time because yeah, but in the future, there might be question marks around that, right?
At this time because yeah, but in the future, there might be question marks around that, right?
Sean Carroll
Yeah, no, absolutely. Certainly videos are almost to the point where you shouldn’t trust them already. Photos you can’t trust, right? Videos is easier to trust, but we’re getting worse at, you know – We’re getting better at faking them, right?
Yeah, no, absolutely. Certainly videos are almost to the point where you shouldn’t trust them already. Photos you can’t trust, right? Videos is easier to trust, but we’re getting worse at, you know – We’re getting better at faking them, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, we’re getting better at faking them.
Yeah, we’re getting better at faking them.
Sean Carroll
Yeah, so physical embodied people, what’s so hard about faking that?
Yeah, so physical embodied people, what’s so hard about faking that?
Lex Fridman
So-
So-
Sean Carroll
This is very depressing, this conversation we’re having right now. So I mean-
This is very depressing, this conversation we’re having right now. So I mean-
Lex Fridman
No, to me it’s exciting.
No, to me it’s exciting.
Sean Carroll
To me – You’re doing it… so it’s exciting to you, but it’s a sobering thought. We’re very bad, right, at imagining what the next fifty years are gonna be like when we’re in the middle of a phase transition as we are right now.
To me – You’re doing it… so it’s exciting to you, but it’s a sobering thought. We’re very bad, right, at imagining what the next fifty years are gonna be like when we’re in the middle of a phase transition as we are right now.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and in general, I’m not blind to all the threats. I am excited by the power of technology to solve, to protect us against the threats- … as they evolve. I’m not as much as Steven Pinker optimistic about the world, but in everything I’ve seen, all of the brilliant people in the world that I’ve met are good people. So the army of the good, in terms of the development of technology, is large.
Yeah, and in general, I’m not blind to all the threats. I am excited by the power of technology to solve, to protect us against the threats- … as they evolve. I’m not as much as Steven Pinker optimistic about the world, but in everything I’ve seen, all of the brilliant people in the world that I’ve met are good people. So the army of the good, in terms of the development of technology, is large.
Sean Carroll
Okay. You’re way more optimistic than I am. I think that goodness and badness are equally distributed among intelligent and unintelligent people. I don’t see much of a correlation there.
Okay. You’re way more optimistic than I am. I think that goodness and badness are equally distributed among intelligent and unintelligent people. I don’t see much of a correlation there.
Lex Fridman
Interesting. Neither of us have proof.
Interesting. Neither of us have proof.
Sean Carroll
Yeah, exactly, as you… Again, opinions are free, right?
Yeah, exactly, as you… Again, opinions are free, right?
Lex Fridman
Nor definitions of good and evil. We come-
Nor definitions of good and evil. We come-
Sean Carroll
Also
Also
Lex Fridman
… without definitions or without data- … Opinions. So what kind of questions can science not currently answer or may never be able to answer in your view?
… without definitions or without data- … Opinions. So what kind of questions can science not currently answer or may never be able to answer in your view?
Sean Carroll
Well, the obvious one is what is good and bad? You know, what is right and wrong? I think that there are questions that, you know, science tells us what happens, what the world is and what it does. It doesn’t say what the world should do or what we should do ’cause we’re part of the world. But we are part of the world, and we have the ability to feel like something’s right, something’s wrong, and to make a very long story very short, I think that the idea of moral philosophy is systematizing our intuitions of what is right and what is wrong. And science might be able to predict ahead of time what we will do, but it won’t ever be able to judge whether we should have done it or not.
Well, the obvious one is what is good and bad? You know, what is right and wrong? I think that there are questions that, you know, science tells us what happens, what the world is and what it does. It doesn’t say what the world should do or what we should do ’cause we’re part of the world. But we are part of the world, and we have the ability to feel like something’s right, something’s wrong, and to make a very long story very short, I think that the idea of moral philosophy is systematizing our intuitions of what is right and what is wrong. And science might be able to predict ahead of time what we will do, but it won’t ever be able to judge whether we should have done it or not.
Interdisciplinary science and conversation
Lex Fridman
So, you know, you’re kind of unique in terms of scientists. Listen, it doesn’t have to do with podcasts, but even just reaching out, I think you referred to as sort of doing interdisciplinary science. So you reach out and talk to people that are outside of your discipline, which I always hope that’s what science was for. In fact, I was a little disillusioned when I realized that academia is very siloed.
So, you know, you’re kind of unique in terms of scientists. Listen, it doesn’t have to do with podcasts, but even just reaching out, I think you referred to as sort of doing interdisciplinary science. So you reach out and talk to people that are outside of your discipline, which I always hope that’s what science was for. In fact, I was a little disillusioned when I realized that academia is very siloed.
Lex Fridman
And so the question is: How, well, at your own level, how do you prepare for these conversations? How do you think about these conversations? How do you open your mind enough to have these conversations? And then maybe a little bit broader, how can you advise other scientists to have these kinds of conversations? Not at the podcast. The fact that you’re doing a podcast is awesome, other people get to hear them.
And so the question is: How, well, at your own level, how do you prepare for these conversations? How do you think about these conversations? How do you open your mind enough to have these conversations? And then maybe a little bit broader, how can you advise other scientists to have these kinds of conversations? Not at the podcast. The fact that you’re doing a podcast is awesome, other people get to hear them.
Sean Carroll
Oh, no, I mean, yeah.
Oh, no, I mean, yeah.
Lex Fridman
But it’s also good to have it without mics- … in general.
But it’s also good to have it without mics- … in general.
Sean Carroll
It’s a good question, but a tough one to answer. I think about, you know, a guy I know who’s a personal trainer, and he was asked on a podcast, “How do we, you know, psych ourselves up to do a workout? How do we make that discipline to go and work out?” And he’s like, “Why are you asking me? Like, I can’t stop working out.”
It’s a good question, but a tough one to answer. I think about, you know, a guy I know who’s a personal trainer, and he was asked on a podcast, “How do we, you know, psych ourselves up to do a workout? How do we make that discipline to go and work out?” And he’s like, “Why are you asking me? Like, I can’t stop working out.”
Sean Carroll
“Like, I don’t need to psych myself up.” So, and likewise, you know, you ask me, like, how do you get to, like, have interdisciplinary conversations and all sorts of different things with all sorts of different people? I’m like, that’s, that’s what makes me go, right? Like, that’s– I, I couldn’t stop doing that. I did that long before any of them were recorded. In fact, a lot of the motivation for starting recording it was making sure I would read all these books that I had purchased, right? Like I- … had all these books I wanted to read. Not enough time to read them, and now if I have the motivation, ’cause I’m gonna, you know, interview Pat Churchland, I’m gonna finally read her book, you know?
“Like, I don’t need to psych myself up.” So, and likewise, you know, you ask me, like, how do you get to, like, have interdisciplinary conversations and all sorts of different things with all sorts of different people? I’m like, that’s, that’s what makes me go, right? Like, that’s– I, I couldn’t stop doing that. I did that long before any of them were recorded. In fact, a lot of the motivation for starting recording it was making sure I would read all these books that I had purchased, right? Like I- … had all these books I wanted to read. Not enough time to read them, and now if I have the motivation, ’cause I’m gonna, you know, interview Pat Churchland, I’m gonna finally read her book, you know?
Sean Carroll
And it’s absolutely true that academia is extraordinarily siloed, right? We don’t talk to people. We rarely do, and in fact, when we do, it’s punished, you know? Like- … the people who do it successfully generally first became very successful within their little silo-
And it’s absolutely true that academia is extraordinarily siloed, right? We don’t talk to people. We rarely do, and in fact, when we do, it’s punished, you know? Like- … the people who do it successfully generally first became very successful within their little silo-
Sean Carroll
of discipline, and only then did they start expanding out. If you’re a young person, you know, I have graduate students, and I try to be very, very candid with them about this, that it’s– You know, most graduate students are to not become faculty members, right? It’s a tough road. And so live the life you wanna live, but do it with your eyes open about what it does to your job chances. And the more broad you are and the less time you spend hyper-specializing in your field, the lower your job chances are. That’s just an academic reality. It’s terrible, and I don’t like it-
of discipline, and only then did they start expanding out. If you’re a young person, you know, I have graduate students, and I try to be very, very candid with them about this, that it’s– You know, most graduate students are to not become faculty members, right? It’s a tough road. And so live the life you wanna live, but do it with your eyes open about what it does to your job chances. And the more broad you are and the less time you spend hyper-specializing in your field, the lower your job chances are. That’s just an academic reality. It’s terrible, and I don’t like it-
Sean Carroll
… but it’s a reality. And for some people, that’s fine. Like, there’s plenty of people who are wonderful scientists who have zero interest in branching out and talking to things, to anyone outside their field. But it, it is disillusioning to me. Some of the, you know, romantic notion I had of the intellectual academic life is belied by the reality of it. The idea that we should reach out beyond our discipline, and that is a positive good, is just so rare in universities that it may as well not exist at all.
… but it’s a reality. And for some people, that’s fine. Like, there’s plenty of people who are wonderful scientists who have zero interest in branching out and talking to things, to anyone outside their field. But it, it is disillusioning to me. Some of the, you know, romantic notion I had of the intellectual academic life is belied by the reality of it. The idea that we should reach out beyond our discipline, and that is a positive good, is just so rare in universities that it may as well not exist at all.
Lex Fridman
But that said, even though you’re saying you’re doing it like the personal trainer because you just can’t help it, you’re also an inspiration to others. Like, I can speak for myself. You know, I also have a career I’m thinking about, right? And without your podcast, I may have not have been doing this at all, right? So it makes me realize that these kinds of conversations is kind of what science is about in many ways. Like, the reason we write papers, this exchange of ideas is much harder to do interdisciplinary papers, I would say.
But that said, even though you’re saying you’re doing it like the personal trainer because you just can’t help it, you’re also an inspiration to others. Like, I can speak for myself. You know, I also have a career I’m thinking about, right? And without your podcast, I may have not have been doing this at all, right? So it makes me realize that these kinds of conversations is kind of what science is about in many ways. Like, the reason we write papers, this exchange of ideas is much harder to do interdisciplinary papers, I would say.
Sean Carroll
Yeah. That’s correct.
Yeah. That’s correct.
Lex Fridman
And conversations are easier, so conversations are a beginning. And in the field of AI, that’s inter– it’s obvious that we should think outside of pure computer vision competitions and particular data sets. We should think about the broader impact of how this can be, you know, reaching out to physics, to psychology, to neuroscience, and having these conversations. So you’re an inspiration, and so-
And conversations are easier, so conversations are a beginning. And in the field of AI, that’s inter– it’s obvious that we should think outside of pure computer vision competitions and particular data sets. We should think about the broader impact of how this can be, you know, reaching out to physics, to psychology, to neuroscience, and having these conversations. So you’re an inspiration, and so-
Sean Carroll
Well, thank you very much.
Well, thank you very much.
Lex Fridman
Never-
Never-
Sean Carroll
That’s very sweet, but-
That’s very sweet, but-
Lex Fridman
Never know how the world changes. I mean, the fact that this stuff is out there, and I’ve– a huge number of people come up to me, grad students really loving the podcast, inspired by it, and they will probably have that– There’ll be ripple effects when they become faculty and so on, so on. We can end on a balance between pessimism … and optimism. And Sean, thank you so much for talking today. It was awesome.
Never know how the world changes. I mean, the fact that this stuff is out there, and I’ve– a huge number of people come up to me, grad students really loving the podcast, inspired by it, and they will probably have that– There’ll be ripple effects when they become faculty and so on, so on. We can end on a balance between pessimism … and optimism. And Sean, thank you so much for talking today. It was awesome.
Sean Carroll
No, Lex, thank you very much for this conversation. It was great.
No, Lex, thank you very much for this conversation. It was great.
Transcript for Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #14 with Kyle Vogt.
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links
that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is
human generated, and may have errors.
Here are some useful links:
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links
that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is
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Table of Contents
Here are the loose “chapters” in the conversation.
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Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 5:24 – First Code and Self-Driving Dream
- 12:18 – MIT and DARPA Grand Challenge
- 16:46 – Founding Justin.tv
- 22:55 – Founding Cruise Automation
- 29:49 – Cruise and General Motors
- 35:24 – Self-driving car economics
- 48:00 – Startup advice from a founder
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Kyle Vogt. He’s the president and the CTO of Cruise Automation, leading an effort to solve one of the biggest robotics challenges of our time, vehicle automation. He’s a co-founder of two successful companies, Twitch and Cruise, that have each sold for a billion dollars, and he’s a great example of the innovative spirit that flourishes in Silicon Valley, and now is facing an interesting and exciting challenge of matching that spirit with the mass production and the safety-centric culture of a major automaker like General Motors. This conversation is part of the MIT Artificial General Intelligence series and the Artificial Intelligence podcast.
The following is a conversation with Kyle Vogt. He’s the president and the CTO of Cruise Automation, leading an effort to solve one of the biggest robotics challenges of our time, vehicle automation. He’s a co-founder of two successful companies, Twitch and Cruise, that have each sold for a billion dollars, and he’s a great example of the innovative spirit that flourishes in Silicon Valley, and now is facing an interesting and exciting challenge of matching that spirit with the mass production and the safety-centric culture of a major automaker like General Motors. This conversation is part of the MIT Artificial General Intelligence series and the Artificial Intelligence podcast.
Lex Fridman
If you enjoy it, please subscribe on YouTube, iTunes, or simply connect with me on Twitter, @lexfridman, spelled F-R-I-D. And now, here’s my conversation with Kyle Vogt. You grew up in Kansas, right?
If you enjoy it, please subscribe on YouTube, iTunes, or simply connect with me on Twitter, @lexfridman, spelled F-R-I-D. And now, here’s my conversation with Kyle Vogt. You grew up in Kansas, right?
Kyle Vogt
Yeah, and I just saw that picture you had hidden over there.
Yeah, and I just saw that picture you had hidden over there.
Lex Fridman
Oh, boy.
Oh, boy.
Kyle Vogt
So I’m a little bit worried about that now.
So I’m a little bit worried about that now.
Lex Fridman
Nervous. So in high school in Kansas City, you joined Shawnee Mission North High School robotics team. Now, that wasn’t your high school.
Nervous. So in high school in Kansas City, you joined Shawnee Mission North High School robotics team. Now, that wasn’t your high school.
Kyle Vogt
That’s right. That was the only high school in the area that had a teacher who was willing to sponsor a FIRST robotics team.
That’s right. That was the only high school in the area that had a teacher who was willing to sponsor a FIRST robotics team.
Lex Fridman
I was gonna troll you a little bit, jog your memory- … a little bit about that kid.
I was gonna troll you a little bit, jog your memory- … a little bit about that kid.
Kyle Vogt
Yep. I was trying to look super cool and intense-
Yep. I was trying to look super cool and intense-
Lex Fridman
You did.
You did.
Kyle Vogt
… ’cause, you know, this was BattleBots, this is serious business. So we’re standing there with a welded steel frame and looking tough.
… ’cause, you know, this was BattleBots, this is serious business. So we’re standing there with a welded steel frame and looking tough.
Lex Fridman
So go back there. What is it that drew you to robotics?
So go back there. What is it that drew you to robotics?
Kyle Vogt
Well, I think I’ve been trying to figure this out for a while, but I’ve always liked building things with Legos, and when I was really, really young, I wanted the Legos that had motors and other things. And then, you know, Lego Mindstorms came out, and for the first time you could program Lego contraptions, and I think things just sort of snowballed from that. But I remember seeing, you know, the BattleBots TV show on Comedy Central and thinking, “That is the coolest thing in the world. I wanna be a part of that.” And not knowing a whole lot about how to build these 200-pound fighting robots.
Well, I think I’ve been trying to figure this out for a while, but I’ve always liked building things with Legos, and when I was really, really young, I wanted the Legos that had motors and other things. And then, you know, Lego Mindstorms came out, and for the first time you could program Lego contraptions, and I think things just sort of snowballed from that. But I remember seeing, you know, the BattleBots TV show on Comedy Central and thinking, “That is the coolest thing in the world. I wanna be a part of that.” And not knowing a whole lot about how to build these 200-pound fighting robots.
Kyle Vogt
So I sort of obsessively pored over the internet forums where all the creators for BattleBots would sort of hang out and talk about, you know, document their build progress and everything. And I think I read, I must have read, like, you know, tens of thousands of forum posts from basically everything that was out there on what these people were doing. And eventually, like, sort of triangulated how to put some of these things together and ended up doing BattleBots, which was, you know, I was like 13 or 14, which was pretty awesome.
So I sort of obsessively pored over the internet forums where all the creators for BattleBots would sort of hang out and talk about, you know, document their build progress and everything. And I think I read, I must have read, like, you know, tens of thousands of forum posts from basically everything that was out there on what these people were doing. And eventually, like, sort of triangulated how to put some of these things together and ended up doing BattleBots, which was, you know, I was like 13 or 14, which was pretty awesome.
Lex Fridman
I’m not sure if the show’s still running, but, so BattleBots is… so there’s not an artificial intelligence component. It’s remotely controlled, and it’s almost like a mechanical engineering challenge of … building things that can’t be broken.
I’m not sure if the show’s still running, but, so BattleBots is… so there’s not an artificial intelligence component. It’s remotely controlled, and it’s almost like a mechanical engineering challenge of … building things that can’t be broken.
Kyle Vogt
They’re radio controlled, so- … And I think that they allowed some limited form of autonomy, but, you know, in a two-minute match, you’re, and the way these things ran, you’re really doing yourself a disservice by trying to automate it versus just, you know, do the practical thing, which is drive it yourself.
They’re radio controlled, so- … And I think that they allowed some limited form of autonomy, but, you know, in a two-minute match, you’re, and the way these things ran, you’re really doing yourself a disservice by trying to automate it versus just, you know, do the practical thing, which is drive it yourself.
Lex Fridman
And there’s an entertainment aspect. Just going on YouTube, there’s like, some of them wield an ax, some of them… I mean, there’s that fun. So what drew you to that aspect? Was it the mechanical engineering? Was it the dream to create, like, a Frankenstein sentient being? Or was it just, like, the Lego, you like tinkering with stuff?
And there’s an entertainment aspect. Just going on YouTube, there’s like, some of them wield an ax, some of them… I mean, there’s that fun. So what drew you to that aspect? Was it the mechanical engineering? Was it the dream to create, like, a Frankenstein sentient being? Or was it just, like, the Lego, you like tinkering with stuff?
Kyle Vogt
I mean, that was just building something. I think the idea of, you know, this radio-controlled machine that can do various things if it has, like, a weapon or something was pretty interesting. I agree, it doesn’t have the same appeal as, you know, autonomous robots, which I, which I, you know, sort of gravitated towards later on. But it was definitely an engineering challenge because everything you did in that competition was pushing components to their limits. So we would buy, like, these $40 DC motors that came out of a winch, like, on the front of a pickup truck or something, and we’d power the car with those, and we’d run ’em at, like, double or triple their rated voltage.
I mean, that was just building something. I think the idea of, you know, this radio-controlled machine that can do various things if it has, like, a weapon or something was pretty interesting. I agree, it doesn’t have the same appeal as, you know, autonomous robots, which I, which I, you know, sort of gravitated towards later on. But it was definitely an engineering challenge because everything you did in that competition was pushing components to their limits. So we would buy, like, these $40 DC motors that came out of a winch, like, on the front of a pickup truck or something, and we’d power the car with those, and we’d run ’em at, like, double or triple their rated voltage.
Kyle Vogt
So they immediately start overheating, but for that two-minute match, you can get, you know, a significant increase in the power output of those motors before they burn out. And so you’re doing the same thing for your battery packs, all the materials in the system, and I think there is something intrinsically interesting about just seeing, like, where things break.
So they immediately start overheating, but for that two-minute match, you can get, you know, a significant increase in the power output of those motors before they burn out. And so you’re doing the same thing for your battery packs, all the materials in the system, and I think there is something intrinsically interesting about just seeing, like, where things break.
Lex Fridman
And did you offline see where they break? Did you take it to the testing point? Like, how did you know two minutes? Or was it a reckless, “Let’s just go with it and see”?
And did you offline see where they break? Did you take it to the testing point? Like, how did you know two minutes? Or was it a reckless, “Let’s just go with it and see”?
Kyle Vogt
We weren’t very good at BattleBots. We lost all of our matches the first round.
We weren’t very good at BattleBots. We lost all of our matches the first round.
Lex Fridman
What did yours look like?
What did yours look like?
Kyle Vogt
The one I built first, both of them were these wedge-shaped robots, ’cause a wedge, even though it’s sort of boring to look at, is extremely effective. You drive towards another robot, and the front edge of it gets under ’em, and then they sort of flip over, kinda like a doorstopper. And the first one had a pneumatic polished stainless steel spike on the front that would shoot out about eight inches.
The one I built first, both of them were these wedge-shaped robots, ’cause a wedge, even though it’s sort of boring to look at, is extremely effective. You drive towards another robot, and the front edge of it gets under ’em, and then they sort of flip over, kinda like a doorstopper. And the first one had a pneumatic polished stainless steel spike on the front that would shoot out about eight inches.
Lex Fridman
The purpose of which is what?
The purpose of which is what?
Kyle Vogt
Pretty, pretty ineffective, actually, but it looked cool. And, uh – Lex Fridman (00:04:59):
Was it to help with the lift? So it – Kyle Vogt (00:05:01):
No, it was just to try to poke holes in the other robot. And then the second time I did it, which was the following, I think maybe 18 months later, we had, well, a titanium ax with a hardened steel tip on it that was powered by a hydraulic cylinder, which we were activating with liquid CO2, which had its own set of problems.
Pretty, pretty ineffective, actually, but it looked cool. And, uh – Lex Fridman (00:04:59):
Was it to help with the lift? So it – Kyle Vogt (00:05:01):
No, it was just to try to poke holes in the other robot. And then the second time I did it, which was the following, I think maybe 18 months later, we had, well, a titanium ax with a hardened steel tip on it that was powered by a hydraulic cylinder, which we were activating with liquid CO2, which had its own set of problems.
First Code and Self-Driving Dream
Lex Fridman
So great. So that’s kind of on the hardware side. I mean at a certain point, there must have been born a fascination on the software side. So what was the first piece of code you’ve written?
So great. So that’s kind of on the hardware side. I mean at a certain point, there must have been born a fascination on the software side. So what was the first piece of code you’ve written?
Kyle Vogt
Oh, man. So-
Oh, man. So-
Lex Fridman
Get to, go back there, see what language was it? What was it? Was it Emacs, Vim? Was it a more respectable modern- … IDE? Do you remember any of this?
Get to, go back there, see what language was it? What was it? Was it Emacs, Vim? Was it a more respectable modern- … IDE? Do you remember any of this?
Kyle Vogt
Yeah. Well, I remember I think maybe when I was in third or fourth grade the school I was at, elementary school, had a bunch of Apple II computers and we’d play games on those. And I remember every once in a while something would crash or it wouldn’t start up correctly, and it would dump you out to what I later learned was, like, sort of a command prompt. And my teacher would come over and type, I actually remember this to this day for some reason, like, PR, number six, or PR pound six, which is peripheral six, which is the disk drive, which would fire up the disk and load the program. And I just remember thinking, “Wow, she’s like a hacker.” Like-
Yeah. Well, I remember I think maybe when I was in third or fourth grade the school I was at, elementary school, had a bunch of Apple II computers and we’d play games on those. And I remember every once in a while something would crash or it wouldn’t start up correctly, and it would dump you out to what I later learned was, like, sort of a command prompt. And my teacher would come over and type, I actually remember this to this day for some reason, like, PR, number six, or PR pound six, which is peripheral six, which is the disk drive, which would fire up the disk and load the program. And I just remember thinking, “Wow, she’s like a hacker.” Like-
Kyle Vogt
… teach me these codes, these error codes, is what I called them at the time. But she had no interest in that, and so it wasn’t until I think about fifth grade that I had a school where you could actually go on these Apple IIs and learn to program. And so it was all in BASIC, you know, where every line, you know, the line numbers are all num- or the… every line is numbered and you have to, like, leave enough space between the numbers so that if you wanna tweak your code, you go back and if the first line was 10 and the second line is 20, now you have to go back and insert 15, and if you need to add code in front of that, you know, 11 or 12, and you hope you don’t run out of line numbers and have to redo the whole thing.
… teach me these codes, these error codes, is what I called them at the time. But she had no interest in that, and so it wasn’t until I think about fifth grade that I had a school where you could actually go on these Apple IIs and learn to program. And so it was all in BASIC, you know, where every line, you know, the line numbers are all num- or the… every line is numbered and you have to, like, leave enough space between the numbers so that if you wanna tweak your code, you go back and if the first line was 10 and the second line is 20, now you have to go back and insert 15, and if you need to add code in front of that, you know, 11 or 12, and you hope you don’t run out of line numbers and have to redo the whole thing.
Lex Fridman
And there’s go-to statements?
And there’s go-to statements?
Kyle Vogt
Yeah, go-to, and it’s, it’s very basic, maybe- … hence the name. But a lot of fun. And that was like, that’s when, you know, when you first program, you see the magic of it. It’s like this world opens up with, you know, endless possibilities for the things you could build or accomplish with that computer.
Yeah, go-to, and it’s, it’s very basic, maybe- … hence the name. But a lot of fun. And that was like, that’s when, you know, when you first program, you see the magic of it. It’s like this world opens up with, you know, endless possibilities for the things you could build or accomplish with that computer.
Lex Fridman
So you got the bug then. So even- … started with BASIC, and then, what, C++ throughout. What did you– Was there computer programming, computer science classes in high school?
So you got the bug then. So even- … started with BASIC, and then, what, C++ throughout. What did you– Was there computer programming, computer science classes in high school?
Kyle Vogt
Not where I went. So it was self-taught, but I did a lot of programming. The thing that, you know, sort of pushed me in the path of eventually working on self-driving cars was actually one of these really long trips driving from my house in Kansas to, to I think Las Vegas, where we did the BattleBots competition. And I had just gotten my, I think my learner’s permit or early driver’s permit. And so I was driving this, you know, 10-hour stretch across western Kansas where it’s just you’re going straight on a highway and it is mind-numbingly boring. And I remember thinking even then with my sort of mediocre programming background that this is something that a computer can do, right?
Not where I went. So it was self-taught, but I did a lot of programming. The thing that, you know, sort of pushed me in the path of eventually working on self-driving cars was actually one of these really long trips driving from my house in Kansas to, to I think Las Vegas, where we did the BattleBots competition. And I had just gotten my, I think my learner’s permit or early driver’s permit. And so I was driving this, you know, 10-hour stretch across western Kansas where it’s just you’re going straight on a highway and it is mind-numbingly boring. And I remember thinking even then with my sort of mediocre programming background that this is something that a computer can do, right?
Kyle Vogt
Let’s take a picture of the road and let’s find the yellow lane markers and, you know, steer the wheel. And, you know, later I’d come to realize this had been done, you know, since the ’80s or the ’70s or even earlier. But I still wanted to do it, and sort of immediately after that trip, switched from sort of BattleBots, which is more radio-controlled machines, to thinking about building, you know, autonomous vehicles of some scale. Start off with really small electric ones and then, you know, progress to what we’re doing now.
Let’s take a picture of the road and let’s find the yellow lane markers and, you know, steer the wheel. And, you know, later I’d come to realize this had been done, you know, since the ’80s or the ’70s or even earlier. But I still wanted to do it, and sort of immediately after that trip, switched from sort of BattleBots, which is more radio-controlled machines, to thinking about building, you know, autonomous vehicles of some scale. Start off with really small electric ones and then, you know, progress to what we’re doing now.
Lex Fridman
So what was your view of artificial intelligence at that point? What, what did you think? So this is before… There’s been waves in artificial intelligence, right? The, the current wave with deep learning makes people believe that you can solve in a really rich, deep way the computer vision perception problem. But, like, in before the deep learning craze, you know, how do you think about how would you even go about building a thing that perceives itself in the world, localizes itself in the world, moves around the world? Like, when you were younger, I mean. As… What was your thinking about it?
So what was your view of artificial intelligence at that point? What, what did you think? So this is before… There’s been waves in artificial intelligence, right? The, the current wave with deep learning makes people believe that you can solve in a really rich, deep way the computer vision perception problem. But, like, in before the deep learning craze, you know, how do you think about how would you even go about building a thing that perceives itself in the world, localizes itself in the world, moves around the world? Like, when you were younger, I mean. As… What was your thinking about it?
Kyle Vogt
Well, prior to deep neural networks or convolutional neural nets, these modern techniques we have, or at least ones that are in use today, it was all a heuristic space. And so, like, old school image processing. And I think extracting, you know, yellow lane markers out of an image of a road is one of the problems that lends itself reasonably well to those heuristic-based methods. You know, like, just do a threshold on the color yellow and then try to fit some lines to that using a Hough transform or something, and then go from there.
Well, prior to deep neural networks or convolutional neural nets, these modern techniques we have, or at least ones that are in use today, it was all a heuristic space. And so, like, old school image processing. And I think extracting, you know, yellow lane markers out of an image of a road is one of the problems that lends itself reasonably well to those heuristic-based methods. You know, like, just do a threshold on the color yellow and then try to fit some lines to that using a Hough transform or something, and then go from there.
Lex Fridman
Traffic light detection and stop sign detection, red, yellow, green.
Traffic light detection and stop sign detection, red, yellow, green.
Kyle Vogt
And I, and I think-
And I, and I think-
Lex Fridman
Or good-
Or good-
Kyle Vogt
… you can, you could… I mean, if you wanted to do a full… I was just trying to make something that would stay in between the lanes on a highway. But if you wanted to do the full, the full, you know, set of capabilities needed for a driverless car, I think you could… I mean, and we’d done this at Cruise, you know, in the very first days. You can start off with a really simple, you know, human-written heuristic just to get the scaffolding in place for your system. Traffic light detection, probably a really simple, you know, color thresholding on day one just to get the system up and running-
… you can, you could… I mean, if you wanted to do a full… I was just trying to make something that would stay in between the lanes on a highway. But if you wanted to do the full, the full, you know, set of capabilities needed for a driverless car, I think you could… I mean, and we’d done this at Cruise, you know, in the very first days. You can start off with a really simple, you know, human-written heuristic just to get the scaffolding in place for your system. Traffic light detection, probably a really simple, you know, color thresholding on day one just to get the system up and running-
Kyle Vogt
… before you migrate to, you know, a deep learning-based technique or, or something else. And, you know, back in, when I was doing this, my first one was on a Pentium 203, 233 MHz computer- … and it, and I, I think I wrote the first version in BASIC, which is- … like, an interpreted language. It’s extremely slow- … ’cause that’s the thing I knew at the time. And so there was no, no chance at all of using there was no computational power to do any sort of reasonable deep nets like you have today. So I don’t know what kids these days are doing. Are kids these days, you know, at age 13 using neural networks in their garage? I mean, that would- … be awesome.
… before you migrate to, you know, a deep learning-based technique or, or something else. And, you know, back in, when I was doing this, my first one was on a Pentium 203, 233 MHz computer- … and it, and I, I think I wrote the first version in BASIC, which is- … like, an interpreted language. It’s extremely slow- … ’cause that’s the thing I knew at the time. And so there was no, no chance at all of using there was no computational power to do any sort of reasonable deep nets like you have today. So I don’t know what kids these days are doing. Are kids these days, you know, at age 13 using neural networks in their garage? I mean, that would- … be awesome.
Lex Fridman
I get emails all the time from, you know, like, 11, 12-year-olds saying, “I’m having, you know, I’m trying to follow this TensorFlow tutorial and I’m having this problem.” And the general approach in the deep learning community is of extreme optimism as opposed to, you mentioned, like, heuristics. You can separate the autonomous driving problem into modules and try to solve it sort of rigorously, or you can just do it end to end. And most people just kind of love the idea that, you know, us humans do it end to end. We just perceive and act. We should be able to do the same kind of thing with neural nets. And that kind of thinking, you don’t want to criticize that kind of thinking because eventually they will be right.
I get emails all the time from, you know, like, 11, 12-year-olds saying, “I’m having, you know, I’m trying to follow this TensorFlow tutorial and I’m having this problem.” And the general approach in the deep learning community is of extreme optimism as opposed to, you mentioned, like, heuristics. You can separate the autonomous driving problem into modules and try to solve it sort of rigorously, or you can just do it end to end. And most people just kind of love the idea that, you know, us humans do it end to end. We just perceive and act. We should be able to do the same kind of thing with neural nets. And that kind of thinking, you don’t want to criticize that kind of thinking because eventually they will be right.
Lex Fridman
And so it’s exciting, and especially when they’re younger, to explore that is a really exciting approach. But yeah, it’s changed the language, the kind of stuff you’re tinkering with. It’s kind of exciting to see when these teenagers grow up.
And so it’s exciting, and especially when they’re younger, to explore that is a really exciting approach. But yeah, it’s changed the language, the kind of stuff you’re tinkering with. It’s kind of exciting to see when these teenagers grow up.
Kyle Vogt
Yeah. I can only imagine if your starting point is, you know, Python and TensorFlow at age 13, where you end up, you know, after 10 or 15 years of that. That’s pretty cool.
Yeah. I can only imagine if your starting point is, you know, Python and TensorFlow at age 13, where you end up, you know, after 10 or 15 years of that. That’s pretty cool.
Lex Fridman
Because of GitHub, because the state-of-the-art tools for solving most of the major problems in artificial intelligence are within a few lines of code for most kids. And that’s incredible to think about. Also on the entrepreneurial side, and on that point, was there any thought about entrepreneurship before you came to college? Is sort of doing your, building this into a thing that impacts the world on a large scale?
Because of GitHub, because the state-of-the-art tools for solving most of the major problems in artificial intelligence are within a few lines of code for most kids. And that’s incredible to think about. Also on the entrepreneurial side, and on that point, was there any thought about entrepreneurship before you came to college? Is sort of doing your, building this into a thing that impacts the world on a large scale?
MIT and DARPA Grand Challenge
Kyle Vogt
Yeah, I’ve always wanted to start a company. I think that’s, you know, just a cool concept of creating something and exchanging it for value or, or creating value, I guess. So in high school I was sort of trying to build like, you know, servo motor drivers, little circuit boards- … and sell them online or other, other things like that. And certainly knew at some point I wanted to do a startup, but it wasn’t really I’d say until college, until I felt like I had the, I guess, the right combination of the environment, the smart people around you, and some free time. I had a lot of free time at MIT.
Yeah, I’ve always wanted to start a company. I think that’s, you know, just a cool concept of creating something and exchanging it for value or, or creating value, I guess. So in high school I was sort of trying to build like, you know, servo motor drivers, little circuit boards- … and sell them online or other, other things like that. And certainly knew at some point I wanted to do a startup, but it wasn’t really I’d say until college, until I felt like I had the, I guess, the right combination of the environment, the smart people around you, and some free time. I had a lot of free time at MIT.
Lex Fridman
So you came to MIT as an undergrad, 2004.
So you came to MIT as an undergrad, 2004.
Kyle Vogt
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
And that’s when the first DARPA Grand Challenge was happening. The timing of that is beautifully poetic. So how’d you get yourself involved in that one?
And that’s when the first DARPA Grand Challenge was happening. The timing of that is beautifully poetic. So how’d you get yourself involved in that one?
Kyle Vogt
Originally there wasn’t a-
Originally there wasn’t a-
Lex Fridman
Official entry?
Official entry?
Kyle Vogt
… sort of, yeah, faculty-sponsored thing, and so a bunch of undergrads, myself included, started meeting and got together and tried to, to haggle together some sponsorships. We got a vehicle donated, a bunch of sensors, and tried to put something together. And so we had, our team was probably mostly freshmen and sophomores- … you know, which was not really a fair fight against maybe the, you know, post-doc and faculty-led teams from other schools. But we got something up and running. We had our vehicle drive by wire and, you know, very, very basic control and things.
… sort of, yeah, faculty-sponsored thing, and so a bunch of undergrads, myself included, started meeting and got together and tried to, to haggle together some sponsorships. We got a vehicle donated, a bunch of sensors, and tried to put something together. And so we had, our team was probably mostly freshmen and sophomores- … you know, which was not really a fair fight against maybe the, you know, post-doc and faculty-led teams from other schools. But we got something up and running. We had our vehicle drive by wire and, you know, very, very basic control and things.
Kyle Vogt
But on the day of the qualifying, sort of pre-qualifying round, the one and only steering motor that we had purchased, the thing that we had, you know, retrofitted to turn the steering wheel on the truck, died. And so our vehicle was just dead in the water, couldn’t steer. So we didn’t make it very far.
But on the day of the qualifying, sort of pre-qualifying round, the one and only steering motor that we had purchased, the thing that we had, you know, retrofitted to turn the steering wheel on the truck, died. And so our vehicle was just dead in the water, couldn’t steer. So we didn’t make it very far.
Lex Fridman
On the hardware side. So was there a software component? Was there… Like, how did your view of autonomous vehicles in terms of artificial intelligence evolve in this moment? I mean, you know, like you said, from the ’80s there’s been autonomous vehicles, but really that was the birth of the modern wave, the thing that captivated everyone’s imagination that we can actually do this. So what, how– Were you captivated in that way? So how did your view of autonomous vehicles change at that point?
On the hardware side. So was there a software component? Was there… Like, how did your view of autonomous vehicles in terms of artificial intelligence evolve in this moment? I mean, you know, like you said, from the ’80s there’s been autonomous vehicles, but really that was the birth of the modern wave, the thing that captivated everyone’s imagination that we can actually do this. So what, how– Were you captivated in that way? So how did your view of autonomous vehicles change at that point?
Kyle Vogt
I’d say at that point in time it was a curiosity, as in like, “Is this really possible?” And I think that was generally the spirit and the purpose of that original DARPA Grand Challenge, which was to just get a whole bunch of really brilliant people exploring this space and pushing the limits. And I think like to this day that DARPA Challenge with its, you know, million dollar prize pool was probably one of the most effective, you know, uses of taxpayer money dollar for dollar that I’ve seen. You know? Because that small sort of initiative that DARPA put out sort of in my view was the catalyst or the tipping point for this whole next wave of autonomous vehicle development. So that was pretty cool.
I’d say at that point in time it was a curiosity, as in like, “Is this really possible?” And I think that was generally the spirit and the purpose of that original DARPA Grand Challenge, which was to just get a whole bunch of really brilliant people exploring this space and pushing the limits. And I think like to this day that DARPA Challenge with its, you know, million dollar prize pool was probably one of the most effective, you know, uses of taxpayer money dollar for dollar that I’ve seen. You know? Because that small sort of initiative that DARPA put out sort of in my view was the catalyst or the tipping point for this whole next wave of autonomous vehicle development. So that was pretty cool.
Lex Fridman
So let me jump around a little bit on that point. They also did the Urban Challenge- … where it was in the city, but it was very artificial and there was no pedestrians, and there was very little human involvement except a few professional drivers. Do you think there’s room… And then there was the robotics challenge with humanoid robots.
So let me jump around a little bit on that point. They also did the Urban Challenge- … where it was in the city, but it was very artificial and there was no pedestrians, and there was very little human involvement except a few professional drivers. Do you think there’s room… And then there was the robotics challenge with humanoid robots.
Kyle Vogt
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
So in your now role as looking at this, you’re trying to solve one of the, you know, autonomous driving, one of the harder, more difficult places, San Francisco. Is there a role for DARPA to step in to also kind of help out, like challenge with new ideas, specifically like pedestrians and so on, all these kinds of interesting things?
So in your now role as looking at this, you’re trying to solve one of the, you know, autonomous driving, one of the harder, more difficult places, San Francisco. Is there a role for DARPA to step in to also kind of help out, like challenge with new ideas, specifically like pedestrians and so on, all these kinds of interesting things?
Kyle Vogt
Well, I haven’t thought about it from that perspective. Is there anything DARPA could do today to further accelerate things? And I would say my instinct is that that’s maybe not the highest and best use of their resources and time-
Well, I haven’t thought about it from that perspective. Is there anything DARPA could do today to further accelerate things? And I would say my instinct is that that’s maybe not the highest and best use of their resources and time-
Lex Fridman
Right
Right
Kyle Vogt
… because like kickstarting and spinning up the flywheel is I think what they did in this case for very, very little money. But today this has become like commercially interesting to very large companies, and the amount of money going into it and the amount of people like going through your class and learning about these things and developing these skills is just, you know, orders of magnitude more than it was back then. And so there’s enough momentum and inertia and energy and investment dollars into this space right now that I don’t, I don’t… I think they can just say mission accomplished and move on to the next-
… because like kickstarting and spinning up the flywheel is I think what they did in this case for very, very little money. But today this has become like commercially interesting to very large companies, and the amount of money going into it and the amount of people like going through your class and learning about these things and developing these skills is just, you know, orders of magnitude more than it was back then. And so there’s enough momentum and inertia and energy and investment dollars into this space right now that I don’t, I don’t… I think they can just say mission accomplished and move on to the next-
Lex Fridman
Makes sense
Makes sense
Kyle Vogt
… area of technology that needs help.
… area of technology that needs help.
Founding Justin.tv
Lex Fridman
So then stepping back to MIT, you left MIT during your junior year. What was that decision like?
So then stepping back to MIT, you left MIT during your junior year. What was that decision like?
Kyle Vogt
As I said, I always wanted to do a company in the, or start a company, and this opportunity landed in my lap, which was a couple guys from Yale were starting a new company, and I Googled them and found that they had started a company previously and sold it actually on eBay for about a quarter million bucks, which was a pretty interesting story. But, so I thought to myself, these guys are, you know, rock star entrepreneurs. They’ve done this before. They must be driving around in Ferraris ’cause they sold their company. And you know, I thought I could learn a lot from them. So I teamed up with those guys and, you know, went out during, went out to California during IAP, which is MIT’s-
As I said, I always wanted to do a company in the, or start a company, and this opportunity landed in my lap, which was a couple guys from Yale were starting a new company, and I Googled them and found that they had started a company previously and sold it actually on eBay for about a quarter million bucks, which was a pretty interesting story. But, so I thought to myself, these guys are, you know, rock star entrepreneurs. They’ve done this before. They must be driving around in Ferraris ’cause they sold their company. And you know, I thought I could learn a lot from them. So I teamed up with those guys and, you know, went out during, went out to California during IAP, which is MIT’s-
Kyle Vogt
Month off on a one-way ticket, and basically never went back. We were having so much fun. We felt like we were building something and creating something, and it was gonna be interesting that, you know, I was just all in and got completely hooked. And that business was Justin.tv, which was originally a reality show about a guy named Justin, which morphed into a live video streaming platform, which then morphed into what is Twitch today. So that was quite an unexpected journey.
Month off on a one-way ticket, and basically never went back. We were having so much fun. We felt like we were building something and creating something, and it was gonna be interesting that, you know, I was just all in and got completely hooked. And that business was Justin.tv, which was originally a reality show about a guy named Justin, which morphed into a live video streaming platform, which then morphed into what is Twitch today. So that was quite an unexpected journey.
Lex Fridman
So no regrets.
So no regrets.
Kyle Vogt
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
Looking back, it was just an obvious, I mean, one-way ticket. I mean, if we just pause on that for a second, there was no… How did you know these were the right guys, this is the right decision? You didn’t think, it was just follow the heart kind of thing?
Looking back, it was just an obvious, I mean, one-way ticket. I mean, if we just pause on that for a second, there was no… How did you know these were the right guys, this is the right decision? You didn’t think, it was just follow the heart kind of thing?
Kyle Vogt
Well, I didn’t know. But, you know, just trying something for a month during IAP seems pretty low risk, right?
Well, I didn’t know. But, you know, just trying something for a month during IAP seems pretty low risk, right?
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Kyle Vogt
And then, you know, well, maybe I’ll take a semester off. MIT’s pretty flexible about that. You can always go back, right? And then after two or three cycles of that, I eventually threw in the towel. But you know, I think it’s… I guess in that case, I felt like I could always hit the undo button if I had to.
And then, you know, well, maybe I’ll take a semester off. MIT’s pretty flexible about that. You can always go back, right? And then after two or three cycles of that, I eventually threw in the towel. But you know, I think it’s… I guess in that case, I felt like I could always hit the undo button if I had to.
Lex Fridman
Right. But it nevertheless, from when you look in retrospect, I mean, it seems like a brave decision that, you know, it would be difficult for a lot of people to make.
Right. But it nevertheless, from when you look in retrospect, I mean, it seems like a brave decision that, you know, it would be difficult for a lot of people to make.
Kyle Vogt
It wasn’t as popular. I’d say the general, you know, flux of people out of MIT at the time was mostly into, you know, finance or consulting jobs in Boston or New York, and very few people were going to California to start companies. But today, I’d say that’s, it’s probably inverted, which is just a sign of, a sign of the times, I guess.
It wasn’t as popular. I’d say the general, you know, flux of people out of MIT at the time was mostly into, you know, finance or consulting jobs in Boston or New York, and very few people were going to California to start companies. But today, I’d say that’s, it’s probably inverted, which is just a sign of, a sign of the times, I guess.
Lex Fridman
Yep. So there’s a story about midnight of March 18, 2007, where TechCrunch, I guess, announced Justin.tv earlier than it was supposed to, a few hours. The site didn’t work. I don’t know if any of this is true. You can tell me. And you and one of the folks at Justin.tv, Emmett Shear, coded through the night. Can you take me through that experience? So let me say a few nice things that the article I read quoted Justin Kan said that you were known for hero coding through problems and being a creative, quote, “creative genius.” So on that night, what was going through your head? Or maybe put another way, how do you solve these problems? What’s your approach to solving these kinds of problems where the line between success and failure seems to be pretty thin?
Yep. So there’s a story about midnight of March 18, 2007, where TechCrunch, I guess, announced Justin.tv earlier than it was supposed to, a few hours. The site didn’t work. I don’t know if any of this is true. You can tell me. And you and one of the folks at Justin.tv, Emmett Shear, coded through the night. Can you take me through that experience? So let me say a few nice things that the article I read quoted Justin Kan said that you were known for hero coding through problems and being a creative, quote, “creative genius.” So on that night, what was going through your head? Or maybe put another way, how do you solve these problems? What’s your approach to solving these kinds of problems where the line between success and failure seems to be pretty thin?
Kyle Vogt
That’s a good question. Well, first of all, that’s nice of Justin to say that. I think, you know, I would’ve been maybe 21 years old then and not very experienced at programming. But as with everything in a startup, you’re sort of racing against the clock. And so our plan was the second we had this live streaming camera backpack up and running where Justin could wear it and no matter where he went in a city, it would be streaming live video, and this is even before the iPhone, so this is, like, hard to do back then, we would launch. And so we thought we were there, and the backpack was working, and then we sent out all the emails to launch the company and do the press thing, and then, you know, we weren’t quite actually there.
That’s a good question. Well, first of all, that’s nice of Justin to say that. I think, you know, I would’ve been maybe 21 years old then and not very experienced at programming. But as with everything in a startup, you’re sort of racing against the clock. And so our plan was the second we had this live streaming camera backpack up and running where Justin could wear it and no matter where he went in a city, it would be streaming live video, and this is even before the iPhone, so this is, like, hard to do back then, we would launch. And so we thought we were there, and the backpack was working, and then we sent out all the emails to launch the company and do the press thing, and then, you know, we weren’t quite actually there.
Kyle Vogt
And then we thought, “Oh, well, you know, they’re not gonna announce it until maybe 10:00 AM the next morning, and it’s, I don’t know, it’s 5:00 PM now, so how many hours do we have left? What is that? Like, you know, 17 hours to go.” And that was gonna be fine.
And then we thought, “Oh, well, you know, they’re not gonna announce it until maybe 10:00 AM the next morning, and it’s, I don’t know, it’s 5:00 PM now, so how many hours do we have left? What is that? Like, you know, 17 hours to go.” And that was gonna be fine.
Lex Fridman
Was the problem obvious? Did you understand what could possibly… Like, how complicated was the system at that point?
Was the problem obvious? Did you understand what could possibly… Like, how complicated was the system at that point?
Kyle Vogt
It was, it was pretty messy. So to get a live video feed that looked decent working from anywhere in San Francisco, I put together this system where we had, like, three or four cellphone data modems, and they were, like, we take the video stream and, you know, sort of spray it across these three or four modems and then try to catch all the packets on the other side, you know, with unreliable cellphone networks and-
It was, it was pretty messy. So to get a live video feed that looked decent working from anywhere in San Francisco, I put together this system where we had, like, three or four cellphone data modems, and they were, like, we take the video stream and, you know, sort of spray it across these three or four modems and then try to catch all the packets on the other side, you know, with unreliable cellphone networks and-
Lex Fridman
It’s pretty low-level networking, you know?
It’s pretty low-level networking, you know?
Kyle Vogt
Yeah. And putting these, like, you know, sort of protocols on top of all that to, to reassemble and reorder the packets and have time buffers and error correction and all that kind of stuff. And the night before, it was just static-y. Every once in a while, the image would, would go static-y, and there would be this horrible, like, screeching audio noise, ’cause the audio was also corrupted, and this would happen, like, every five to 10 minutes or so, and it was a really- … you know, off-putting to the viewers.
Yeah. And putting these, like, you know, sort of protocols on top of all that to, to reassemble and reorder the packets and have time buffers and error correction and all that kind of stuff. And the night before, it was just static-y. Every once in a while, the image would, would go static-y, and there would be this horrible, like, screeching audio noise, ’cause the audio was also corrupted, and this would happen, like, every five to 10 minutes or so, and it was a really- … you know, off-putting to the viewers.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. How do you tackle that problem? What was the… You just freaking out behind a computer? There’s… Were, are there other, other folks working on this problem? Like, were you behind a whiteboard? Were you doing-
Yeah. How do you tackle that problem? What was the… You just freaking out behind a computer? There’s… Were, are there other, other folks working on this problem? Like, were you behind a whiteboard? Were you doing-
Kyle Vogt
Yeah. It was- It was a little, it was a little lonely
Yeah. It was- It was a little, it was a little lonely
Lex Fridman
… pair coding?
… pair coding?
Kyle Vogt
Yeah, it was a little lonely, ’cause there was four of us working on the company, and only two people really wrote code, and Emmett wrote the website and the chat system, and I wrote the software for this video streaming device and video server. And so I, you know, it was my sole responsibility to figure that out. And I think, I think it’s those, you know, setting, setting deadlines, trying to move quickly and everything where, where you’re in that moment of intense pressure that sometimes people do their best and most interesting work. And so even though that was a terrible moment, I look back on it fondly, ’cause that’s like, you know, that’s one of those character defining moments, I think.
Yeah, it was a little lonely, ’cause there was four of us working on the company, and only two people really wrote code, and Emmett wrote the website and the chat system, and I wrote the software for this video streaming device and video server. And so I, you know, it was my sole responsibility to figure that out. And I think, I think it’s those, you know, setting, setting deadlines, trying to move quickly and everything where, where you’re in that moment of intense pressure that sometimes people do their best and most interesting work. And so even though that was a terrible moment, I look back on it fondly, ’cause that’s like, you know, that’s one of those character defining moments, I think.
Founding Cruise Automation
Lex Fridman
So in 2013, October, you founded Cruise Automation. So progressing forward another exceptionally successful company. It was acquired by GM in ’16 for $1 billion. But in October 2013, what was on your mind? What was the plan? How does one seriously start to tackle one of the hardest robotics, most important impactful robotics problems of our age?
So in 2013, October, you founded Cruise Automation. So progressing forward another exceptionally successful company. It was acquired by GM in ’16 for $1 billion. But in October 2013, what was on your mind? What was the plan? How does one seriously start to tackle one of the hardest robotics, most important impactful robotics problems of our age?
Kyle Vogt
After going through Twitch, I… Twitch was, was and is today pretty successful, but the work was, the result was entertainment mostly. Like- the, the better the product was, the more we would entertain people and then, you know, make money on the ad revenues and other things. And that was, that was a good thing, and it felt, felt good to entertain people. But I figured, like, you know, what is really the point of becoming a really good engineer and developing these skills other than, you know, my own enjoyment? And I realized I wanted something that scratched more of an existential itch, like something that truly matters.
After going through Twitch, I… Twitch was, was and is today pretty successful, but the work was, the result was entertainment mostly. Like- the, the better the product was, the more we would entertain people and then, you know, make money on the ad revenues and other things. And that was, that was a good thing, and it felt, felt good to entertain people. But I figured, like, you know, what is really the point of becoming a really good engineer and developing these skills other than, you know, my own enjoyment? And I realized I wanted something that scratched more of an existential itch, like something that truly matters.
Kyle Vogt
And so I basically made this list of requirements for a new, if I was gonna do another company, and the one thing I knew in the back of my head, that Twitch took, like, eight years to become successful. And so whatever I do, I better be willing to commit, you know, at least 10 years to, to something. And when you think about things from that perspective- You certainly, I think, raise the bar on what you choose to work on. So for me, the three things were it had to be something where the technology itself determines the success of the product, like hard, really juicy technology problems, ’cause that’s what motivates me. And then it had to have a direct and positive impact on society in some way.
And so I basically made this list of requirements for a new, if I was gonna do another company, and the one thing I knew in the back of my head, that Twitch took, like, eight years to become successful. And so whatever I do, I better be willing to commit, you know, at least 10 years to, to something. And when you think about things from that perspective- You certainly, I think, raise the bar on what you choose to work on. So for me, the three things were it had to be something where the technology itself determines the success of the product, like hard, really juicy technology problems, ’cause that’s what motivates me. And then it had to have a direct and positive impact on society in some way.
Kyle Vogt
So an example would be like, you know, healthcare, self-driving cars, ’cause they save lives, other things where there’s a clear connection to somehow improving other people’s lives. And the last one is it had to be a big business, because for the positive impact to matter, it’s gotta be at large scale.
So an example would be like, you know, healthcare, self-driving cars, ’cause they save lives, other things where there’s a clear connection to somehow improving other people’s lives. And the last one is it had to be a big business, because for the positive impact to matter, it’s gotta be at large scale.
Lex Fridman
Scale, yeah.
Scale, yeah.
Kyle Vogt
And I was thinking about that for a while and I made like a– I tried writing a Gmail clone and looked at some other ideas, and then it just sort of lightbulb went off, like self-driving cars. Like, that was the most fun I had ever had in college working on that. And like, well, what’s the state of the technology? It’s been 10 years. Maybe, maybe times have changed, and maybe now is the time to make this work. And I poked around and looked at… The only other thing out there really at the time was the Google self-driving car project.
And I was thinking about that for a while and I made like a– I tried writing a Gmail clone and looked at some other ideas, and then it just sort of lightbulb went off, like self-driving cars. Like, that was the most fun I had ever had in college working on that. And like, well, what’s the state of the technology? It’s been 10 years. Maybe, maybe times have changed, and maybe now is the time to make this work. And I poked around and looked at… The only other thing out there really at the time was the Google self-driving car project.
Kyle Vogt
And I thought, surely there’s a way to, you know, have an entrepreneur mindset and sort of solve the minimum viable product here. And so I just took the plunge right then and there and said, “This, this is something I know I can commit 10 years to. It’s, probably the greatest applied AI problem of our generation.”
And I thought, surely there’s a way to, you know, have an entrepreneur mindset and sort of solve the minimum viable product here. And so I just took the plunge right then and there and said, “This, this is something I know I can commit 10 years to. It’s, probably the greatest applied AI problem of our generation.”
Lex Fridman
That’s right.
That’s right.
Kyle Vogt
“And if it works, it’s gonna be both a huge business, and therefore, like, probably the most positive impact I can possibly have on the world.” So after that lightbulb went off, I went all in on Cruise immediately and got to work.
“And if it works, it’s gonna be both a huge business, and therefore, like, probably the most positive impact I can possibly have on the world.” So after that lightbulb went off, I went all in on Cruise immediately and got to work.
Lex Fridman
Did you have an idea how to solve this problem? Which aspects of the problem to solve? You know, slow-moving– like, we just had Oliver from Voyage here. Slow-moving retirement communities, urban driving, highway driving. Did you have, like did you have a vision of the city of the future where, you know, the transportation is largely automated, that kind of thing, or was it sort of more fuzzy and gray area than that?
Did you have an idea how to solve this problem? Which aspects of the problem to solve? You know, slow-moving– like, we just had Oliver from Voyage here. Slow-moving retirement communities, urban driving, highway driving. Did you have, like did you have a vision of the city of the future where, you know, the transportation is largely automated, that kind of thing, or was it sort of more fuzzy and gray area than that?
Kyle Vogt
My analysis of the situation is that Google’s putting a lot of, had been putting a lot of money into that project. They had a lot more resources, and so… And they still hadn’t cracked the fully driverless car. You know, this is 2013, I guess. So I thought, what, what can I do to sort of go from zero to, you know, significant scale so I can actually solve the real problem, which is the driverless cars? And I thought, here’s the strategy. We’ll start by doing a really simple problem or solving a really simple problem that creates value for people. So eventually ended up deciding on automating highway driving.
My analysis of the situation is that Google’s putting a lot of, had been putting a lot of money into that project. They had a lot more resources, and so… And they still hadn’t cracked the fully driverless car. You know, this is 2013, I guess. So I thought, what, what can I do to sort of go from zero to, you know, significant scale so I can actually solve the real problem, which is the driverless cars? And I thought, here’s the strategy. We’ll start by doing a really simple problem or solving a really simple problem that creates value for people. So eventually ended up deciding on automating highway driving.
Kyle Vogt
Which is relatively more straightforward as long as there’s a backup driver there. And I’ll, you know, the go-to-market will be able to retrofit people’s cars and just sell these products directly. And the idea was we’ll take all the revenue and profits from that and use it to do the– so sort of reinvest that in research for doing fully-
Which is relatively more straightforward as long as there’s a backup driver there. And I’ll, you know, the go-to-market will be able to retrofit people’s cars and just sell these products directly. And the idea was we’ll take all the revenue and profits from that and use it to do the– so sort of reinvest that in research for doing fully-
Lex Fridman
Full
Full
Kyle Vogt
… driverless cars. And that was the plan. The only thing that really changed along the way between then and now is we never really launched the first product. We had enough interest from investors and enough of a signal that this was something that we should be working on, that after about a year of working on the Highway Autopilot, we had it working, you know, on, at a prototype stage, but we just completely abandoned that and said, “We’re gonna go all in on driverless cars. Now is the time. Can’t think of anything that’s more exciting, and if it works, more impactful, so we’re just gonna go for it.”
… driverless cars. And that was the plan. The only thing that really changed along the way between then and now is we never really launched the first product. We had enough interest from investors and enough of a signal that this was something that we should be working on, that after about a year of working on the Highway Autopilot, we had it working, you know, on, at a prototype stage, but we just completely abandoned that and said, “We’re gonna go all in on driverless cars. Now is the time. Can’t think of anything that’s more exciting, and if it works, more impactful, so we’re just gonna go for it.”
Lex Fridman
The idea of retrofit is kind of interesting. Of being able to… It’s how you achieve scale. It’s a really interesting idea. Is it something that’s still in the back of your mind as a possibility?
The idea of retrofit is kind of interesting. Of being able to… It’s how you achieve scale. It’s a really interesting idea. Is it something that’s still in the back of your mind as a possibility?
Kyle Vogt
Not at all. I’ve come full circle on that one.
Not at all. I’ve come full circle on that one.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Kyle Vogt
After trying to build a retrofit product, and I’ll touch on some of the complexities of that, and then also having been inside an OEM and seeing how things work and how a vehicle is developed and validated, when it comes to something that has safety critical implications, like-
After trying to build a retrofit product, and I’ll touch on some of the complexities of that, and then also having been inside an OEM and seeing how things work and how a vehicle is developed and validated, when it comes to something that has safety critical implications, like-
Kyle Vogt
… controlling the steering and, you know, other control inputs on your car, it’s pretty hard to get there with a retrofit. Or, even if you did it, it creates a whole bunch of new complications around liability, or how did you truly validate that? Or, you know, if something in the base vehicle fails and causes your system to fail, whose fault is it? Or if the car’s anti-lock brake systems or other things kick in, or the software has been– it’s different in one version of the car you retrofit versus another, and you don’t know because the manufacturer has updated it behind the scenes. There’s basically an infinite list of long tail issues that can get you, and if you’re dealing with a safety critical product, that’s not really acceptable.
… controlling the steering and, you know, other control inputs on your car, it’s pretty hard to get there with a retrofit. Or, even if you did it, it creates a whole bunch of new complications around liability, or how did you truly validate that? Or, you know, if something in the base vehicle fails and causes your system to fail, whose fault is it? Or if the car’s anti-lock brake systems or other things kick in, or the software has been– it’s different in one version of the car you retrofit versus another, and you don’t know because the manufacturer has updated it behind the scenes. There’s basically an infinite list of long tail issues that can get you, and if you’re dealing with a safety critical product, that’s not really acceptable.
Lex Fridman
That’s a really convincing summary of why it’s really challenging. ‘Cause it’s-
That’s a really convincing summary of why it’s really challenging. ‘Cause it’s-
Kyle Vogt
But I didn’t know all that at the time. So we tried it anyway.
But I didn’t know all that at the time. So we tried it anyway.
Lex Fridman
But as a pitch also, at the time- … it’s a really strong one. ‘Cause that’s how you achieve scale, and that’s how you beat the current, the leader at the time of Google, or the only one in the market.
But as a pitch also, at the time- … it’s a really strong one. ‘Cause that’s how you achieve scale, and that’s how you beat the current, the leader at the time of Google, or the only one in the market.
Kyle Vogt
The other big problem we ran into, which is perhaps the biggest problem from a business model perspective, is we had kind of assumed that we’d… We started with an Audi S4 as the vehicle we retrofitted with this highway driving capability, and we had kind of assumed that if we just knock out, like, three make and models of vehicle, that’ll cover, like, 80% of the San Francisco market.
The other big problem we ran into, which is perhaps the biggest problem from a business model perspective, is we had kind of assumed that we’d… We started with an Audi S4 as the vehicle we retrofitted with this highway driving capability, and we had kind of assumed that if we just knock out, like, three make and models of vehicle, that’ll cover, like, 80% of the San Francisco market.
Kyle Vogt
Doesn’t everyone there drive, I don’t know, a BMW or a Honda Civic or one of these three cars? And then we surveyed our users, and we found out that it’s all over the place. We would– To get even a decent number of units sold, we’d have to support, like, you know, 20 or 50 different models, and each one is a little butterfly that takes time and effort to maintain, you know, that retrofit integration and custom hardware and all this. So it was a tough business.
Doesn’t everyone there drive, I don’t know, a BMW or a Honda Civic or one of these three cars? And then we surveyed our users, and we found out that it’s all over the place. We would– To get even a decent number of units sold, we’d have to support, like, you know, 20 or 50 different models, and each one is a little butterfly that takes time and effort to maintain, you know, that retrofit integration and custom hardware and all this. So it was a tough business.
Cruise and General Motors
Lex Fridman
So GM manufactures and sells over nine million cars a year, and what you with Cruise are trying to do some of the most cutting-edge innovation in terms of applying AI. And so how, how do those… You’ve, we’ve talked about it a little bit before, but it’s also just fascinating to me. We work with a lot of automakers. You know, the difference between the gap between Detroit and Silicon Valley, let’s say, just to be sort of poetic about it, I guess. What, how do you close that gap? How do you take GM into the future where a large part of the fleet will be autonomous perhaps?
So GM manufactures and sells over nine million cars a year, and what you with Cruise are trying to do some of the most cutting-edge innovation in terms of applying AI. And so how, how do those… You’ve, we’ve talked about it a little bit before, but it’s also just fascinating to me. We work with a lot of automakers. You know, the difference between the gap between Detroit and Silicon Valley, let’s say, just to be sort of poetic about it, I guess. What, how do you close that gap? How do you take GM into the future where a large part of the fleet will be autonomous perhaps?
Kyle Vogt
I wanna start by acknowledging that GM is made up of, you know, tens of thousands of really brilliant, motivated people who wanna be a part of the future, and so it’s pretty fun to work with them. The attitude inside a car company like that is, you know, embracing this transformation and change rather than fearing it. And I think that’s a testament to the leadership at GM, and that’s flowing all the way through to everyone you talk to, even the people in the assembly plants working on these cars.
I wanna start by acknowledging that GM is made up of, you know, tens of thousands of really brilliant, motivated people who wanna be a part of the future, and so it’s pretty fun to work with them. The attitude inside a car company like that is, you know, embracing this transformation and change rather than fearing it. And I think that’s a testament to the leadership at GM, and that’s flowing all the way through to everyone you talk to, even the people in the assembly plants working on these cars.
Kyle Vogt
So that’s really great. So starting from that position makes it a lot easier. So then when the people in San Francisco at Cruise interact with the people at GM, at least we have this common set of values, which is that we really want this stuff to work ’cause we think it’s important and we think it’s the future. That’s not to say, you know, those two cultures don’t clash. They absolutely do. There’s different sort of value systems. Like in a car company, the thing that gets you promoted and sort of the reward system is following the processes, delivering the program on time and on budget.
So that’s really great. So starting from that position makes it a lot easier. So then when the people in San Francisco at Cruise interact with the people at GM, at least we have this common set of values, which is that we really want this stuff to work ’cause we think it’s important and we think it’s the future. That’s not to say, you know, those two cultures don’t clash. They absolutely do. There’s different sort of value systems. Like in a car company, the thing that gets you promoted and sort of the reward system is following the processes, delivering the program on time and on budget.
Kyle Vogt
So any sort of risk-taking is discouraged in many ways because if a program is late or if you shut down the plant for a day, it’s, you know, you can count the millions of dollars that burn by pretty quickly. Whereas I think in most Silicon Valley companies and in Cruise and the methodology we were employing, especially around the time of the acquisition, the reward structure is about trying to solve these complex problems in any way, shape, or form or coming up with crazy ideas that, you know, 90% of them won’t work.
So any sort of risk-taking is discouraged in many ways because if a program is late or if you shut down the plant for a day, it’s, you know, you can count the millions of dollars that burn by pretty quickly. Whereas I think in most Silicon Valley companies and in Cruise and the methodology we were employing, especially around the time of the acquisition, the reward structure is about trying to solve these complex problems in any way, shape, or form or coming up with crazy ideas that, you know, 90% of them won’t work.
Kyle Vogt
And so meshing that culture of sort of continuous improvement and experimentation with one where everything needs to be, you know, rigorously defined upfront so that you never slip a deadline or miss a budget was a pretty big challenge. And we’re over three years in now after the acquisition, and I’d say, like, you know, the investment we made in figuring out how to work together successfully and who should do what and how we bridge the gaps between these very different systems and way of doing engineering work is now one of our greatest assets ’cause I think we have this really powerful thing. But for a while both GM and Cruise were very steep on the learning curve.
And so meshing that culture of sort of continuous improvement and experimentation with one where everything needs to be, you know, rigorously defined upfront so that you never slip a deadline or miss a budget was a pretty big challenge. And we’re over three years in now after the acquisition, and I’d say, like, you know, the investment we made in figuring out how to work together successfully and who should do what and how we bridge the gaps between these very different systems and way of doing engineering work is now one of our greatest assets ’cause I think we have this really powerful thing. But for a while both GM and Cruise were very steep on the learning curve.
Lex Fridman
Yes, I’m sure it was very stressful. It’s really important work ’cause that’s, that’s how to revolutionize the transportation. Really to revolutionize any system. You know, you look at the healthcare system or you look at the legal system. I have people, like lawyers come up to me all the time, like everything they’re working on can easily be automated, but then that’s-
Yes, I’m sure it was very stressful. It’s really important work ’cause that’s, that’s how to revolutionize the transportation. Really to revolutionize any system. You know, you look at the healthcare system or you look at the legal system. I have people, like lawyers come up to me all the time, like everything they’re working on can easily be automated, but then that’s-
Kyle Vogt
That’s not a good feeling. Yeah.
That’s not a good feeling. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Well, it’s not a good feeling, but also there’s no way to automate because the entire infrastructure is really, you know, based, is older and it moves very slowly. And so how do you close the gap between I have an e- how can I replace… Of course, lawyers don’t wanna be replaced with an app, but you could- … replace a lot of aspect when most of the data is still on paper. And so the same thing with, with automotive. I mean, it’s fundamentally software. So it’s, it’s basically hiring software engineers. It’s thinking in a software world. I mean, I’m pretty sure nobody in Silicon Valley has ever hit a deadline. So, and then on, on GM-
Well, it’s not a good feeling, but also there’s no way to automate because the entire infrastructure is really, you know, based, is older and it moves very slowly. And so how do you close the gap between I have an e- how can I replace… Of course, lawyers don’t wanna be replaced with an app, but you could- … replace a lot of aspect when most of the data is still on paper. And so the same thing with, with automotive. I mean, it’s fundamentally software. So it’s, it’s basically hiring software engineers. It’s thinking in a software world. I mean, I’m pretty sure nobody in Silicon Valley has ever hit a deadline. So, and then on, on GM-
Kyle Vogt
That’s, that’s probably true, yeah.
That’s, that’s probably true, yeah.
Lex Fridman
On GM’s side it’s probably the opposite. So that culture gap is really fascinating. So you’re optimistic about the future of that?
On GM’s side it’s probably the opposite. So that culture gap is really fascinating. So you’re optimistic about the future of that?
Kyle Vogt
Yeah, I mean, from what I’ve seen it’s impressive. And I think, like, especially in Silicon Valley, it’s easy to write off building cars because, you know, people have been doing that for over 100 years now in this country. And so it seems like that’s a solved problem, but that doesn’t mean it’s an easy problem. And I think it would be easy to sort of overlook that and think that, you know, we’re Silicon Valley engineers, we can solve any problem. You know, building a car, it’s been done, therefore it’s not a real engineering challenge.
Yeah, I mean, from what I’ve seen it’s impressive. And I think, like, especially in Silicon Valley, it’s easy to write off building cars because, you know, people have been doing that for over 100 years now in this country. And so it seems like that’s a solved problem, but that doesn’t mean it’s an easy problem. And I think it would be easy to sort of overlook that and think that, you know, we’re Silicon Valley engineers, we can solve any problem. You know, building a car, it’s been done, therefore it’s not a real engineering challenge.
Kyle Vogt
But after having seen just the sheer scale and magnitude and industrialization that occurs inside of an automotive assembly plant, that is a lot of work that I am very glad that we don’t have to reinvent to make self-driving cars work. And so to have, you know, partners who have done that for 100 years, have these great processes and this huge infrastructure and supply base that we can tap into is just remarkable because the scope and surface area of the problem of deploying fleets of self-driving cars is so large that we’re constantly looking for ways to do less so we can focus on the things that really matter more. And if we had to figure out how to build and assemble and, you know-
But after having seen just the sheer scale and magnitude and industrialization that occurs inside of an automotive assembly plant, that is a lot of work that I am very glad that we don’t have to reinvent to make self-driving cars work. And so to have, you know, partners who have done that for 100 years, have these great processes and this huge infrastructure and supply base that we can tap into is just remarkable because the scope and surface area of the problem of deploying fleets of self-driving cars is so large that we’re constantly looking for ways to do less so we can focus on the things that really matter more. And if we had to figure out how to build and assemble and, you know-
Lex Fridman
Tests and, yeah
Tests and, yeah
Kyle Vogt
… yeah, build the cars themselves, I mean, we work closely with GM on that, but if we had to develop all that capability in-house as well, you know, that would just make the problem really intractable, I think.
… yeah, build the cars themselves, I mean, we work closely with GM on that, but if we had to develop all that capability in-house as well, you know, that would just make the problem really intractable, I think.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. So yeah, just like your first entry at the MIT DARPA Challenge when there was what, the motor that failed. If somebody that knows what they’re doing with a motor did it, they could just focus on the soft-
Mm-hmm. So yeah, just like your first entry at the MIT DARPA Challenge when there was what, the motor that failed. If somebody that knows what they’re doing with a motor did it, they could just focus on the soft-
Kyle Vogt
That would’ve been nice if we could just focus on the software- … not the, not the hardware platform. Yeah.
That would’ve been nice if we could just focus on the software- … not the, not the hardware platform. Yeah.
Self-driving car economics
Lex Fridman
Right. So from your perspective now, you know, there are so many ways that autonomous vehicles can impact society in the next year, five years, 10 years. What do you think is the biggest opportunity to make money in autonomous driving? So sort of make it a financially viable thing in the near term. What do you think will be the biggest impact there?
Right. So from your perspective now, you know, there are so many ways that autonomous vehicles can impact society in the next year, five years, 10 years. What do you think is the biggest opportunity to make money in autonomous driving? So sort of make it a financially viable thing in the near term. What do you think will be the biggest impact there?
Kyle Vogt
Well, the things that drive the economics for fleets of self-driving cars are, there’s sort of a handful of variables. One is, you know, the cost to build the vehicle itself, so the material cost. How many, you know, what’s the cost of all your sensors plus the cost of the vehicle and every, all the other components on it. Another one is the lifetime of the vehicle. It’s very different if your vehicle drives 100,000 miles and then it falls apart versus, you know, two million. And then, you know, if you have a fleet, it’s kinda like an airplane or an airline where once you produce the vehicle, you want it to be in operation-
Well, the things that drive the economics for fleets of self-driving cars are, there’s sort of a handful of variables. One is, you know, the cost to build the vehicle itself, so the material cost. How many, you know, what’s the cost of all your sensors plus the cost of the vehicle and every, all the other components on it. Another one is the lifetime of the vehicle. It’s very different if your vehicle drives 100,000 miles and then it falls apart versus, you know, two million. And then, you know, if you have a fleet, it’s kinda like an airplane or an airline where once you produce the vehicle, you want it to be in operation-
Kyle Vogt
… as many hours a day as possible producing revenue. And then you know, the other piece of that is How are you generating revenue? And I think that’s kinda what you’re asking. And I think the obvious things today are, you know, the ride sharing business, because that’s pretty clear that there’s demand for that. There’s existing markets you can tap into.
… as many hours a day as possible producing revenue. And then you know, the other piece of that is How are you generating revenue? And I think that’s kinda what you’re asking. And I think the obvious things today are, you know, the ride sharing business, because that’s pretty clear that there’s demand for that. There’s existing markets you can tap into.
Lex Fridman
Large urban areas, that kind of thing.
Large urban areas, that kind of thing.
Kyle Vogt
Yeah, yeah. And I think that there are some real benefits to having cars without drivers compared to sort of the status quo for people who use ride share services today. You know, you get privacy, consistency, hopefully significantly improved safety, all these benefits versus the current product. But it’s a crowded market, and then other opportunities which you’ve seen a lot of activity in the last, really in the last six to 12 months is, you know, delivery, whether that’s parcels and packages, food, or groceries.
Yeah, yeah. And I think that there are some real benefits to having cars without drivers compared to sort of the status quo for people who use ride share services today. You know, you get privacy, consistency, hopefully significantly improved safety, all these benefits versus the current product. But it’s a crowded market, and then other opportunities which you’ve seen a lot of activity in the last, really in the last six to 12 months is, you know, delivery, whether that’s parcels and packages, food, or groceries.
Kyle Vogt
Those are all sort of, I think, opportunities that are pretty ripe for these, you know, once you have this core technology, which is the fleet of autonomous vehicles, there’s all sorts of different business opportunities you can build on top of that. But I think the important thing, of course, is that there’s zero monetization opportunity until you actually have that fleet of very capable driverless cars that are as good or better than humans. And that’s sort of where the entire industry is sort of in this holding pattern right now.
Those are all sort of, I think, opportunities that are pretty ripe for these, you know, once you have this core technology, which is the fleet of autonomous vehicles, there’s all sorts of different business opportunities you can build on top of that. But I think the important thing, of course, is that there’s zero monetization opportunity until you actually have that fleet of very capable driverless cars that are as good or better than humans. And that’s sort of where the entire industry is sort of in this holding pattern right now.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, they’re trying to achieve that baseline. So, but you said sort of reli- not reliability, consistency. It’s kinda interesting. I think I heard you say somewhere, I’m not sure if that’s what you meant, but, you know, I can imagine a situation where you would get in an autonomous vehicle and you know, when you get into an Uber or Lyft, you don’t get to choose the driver in a sense that you don’t get to choose the personality of the driving. Do you think there’s room to define the personality of the car, the way it drives you in terms of aggressiveness, for example, in terms of sort of pushing the bound- the, one of the biggest challenges in autonomous driving is the trade-off between sort of safety and assertiveness.
Yeah, they’re trying to achieve that baseline. So, but you said sort of reli- not reliability, consistency. It’s kinda interesting. I think I heard you say somewhere, I’m not sure if that’s what you meant, but, you know, I can imagine a situation where you would get in an autonomous vehicle and you know, when you get into an Uber or Lyft, you don’t get to choose the driver in a sense that you don’t get to choose the personality of the driving. Do you think there’s room to define the personality of the car, the way it drives you in terms of aggressiveness, for example, in terms of sort of pushing the bound- the, one of the biggest challenges in autonomous driving is the trade-off between sort of safety and assertiveness.
Lex Fridman
And is, do you think there’s any room for the human to take a role in that decision to accept some-
And is, do you think there’s any room for the human to take a role in that decision to accept some-
Kyle Vogt
I mean, we-
I mean, we-
Lex Fridman
… of the liability, I guess?
… of the liability, I guess?
Kyle Vogt
We, I wouldn’t as- No, I’d say within reasonable bounds, as in we’re not gonna I think it’d be highly unlikely we’d expose any knob that would let you, you know, significantly increase, you know, safety risk. I think that’s just not something we’d be willing to do. But I think driving style or, like, you know, are you gonna relax the comfort constraints slightly or things like that, all of those things make sense and are plausible. I see all those as, you know, nice optimizations once, again, we get the core problem solved and these fleets out there. But the other thing we’ve sort of observed is that you have this intuition that if you sort of slam your foot on the gas right after the light turns green and aggressively accelerate, you’re gonna get there faster.
We, I wouldn’t as- No, I’d say within reasonable bounds, as in we’re not gonna I think it’d be highly unlikely we’d expose any knob that would let you, you know, significantly increase, you know, safety risk. I think that’s just not something we’d be willing to do. But I think driving style or, like, you know, are you gonna relax the comfort constraints slightly or things like that, all of those things make sense and are plausible. I see all those as, you know, nice optimizations once, again, we get the core problem solved and these fleets out there. But the other thing we’ve sort of observed is that you have this intuition that if you sort of slam your foot on the gas right after the light turns green and aggressively accelerate, you’re gonna get there faster.
Kyle Vogt
But the actual impact of doing that is pretty small. You feel like you’re getting there faster, but so the, so the same would be true for AVs. Even if they don’t slam their, you know, the pedal to the floor when the light turns green, they’re gonna get you there within, you know, if it’s a 15-minute trip, within 30 seconds of what you would have done otherwise if you were going really aggressively. So I think there’s this sort of self-deception that my aggressive driving style is getting me there faster.
But the actual impact of doing that is pretty small. You feel like you’re getting there faster, but so the, so the same would be true for AVs. Even if they don’t slam their, you know, the pedal to the floor when the light turns green, they’re gonna get you there within, you know, if it’s a 15-minute trip, within 30 seconds of what you would have done otherwise if you were going really aggressively. So I think there’s this sort of self-deception that my aggressive driving style is getting me there faster.
Lex Fridman
Well, so that’s, you know, some of the things I study, some of the things I’m fascinated by, the psychology of that. I don’t think it matters that it doesn’t get you there faster. It’s the emotional release. Driving is a place, being inside of a car, somebody said it’s like the real world version of being a troll. So you have this protection, this mental protection, and you’re able to sort of yell at the world, like release your anger, whatever is bo- so there’s an element of that that I think autonomous vehicles would also have to s- you know, giving an outlet to people, but it doesn’t have to be through driving or honking or so on.
Well, so that’s, you know, some of the things I study, some of the things I’m fascinated by, the psychology of that. I don’t think it matters that it doesn’t get you there faster. It’s the emotional release. Driving is a place, being inside of a car, somebody said it’s like the real world version of being a troll. So you have this protection, this mental protection, and you’re able to sort of yell at the world, like release your anger, whatever is bo- so there’s an element of that that I think autonomous vehicles would also have to s- you know, giving an outlet to people, but it doesn’t have to be through driving or honking or so on.
Lex Fridman
There might be other outlets. But I think to just sort of even just put that aside, the baseline is really, you know, that’s the focus, that’s the thing you need to solve, and then the fun human things can be solved after. But so from the baseline of just solving autonomous driving and you’re working in San Francisco, one of the more difficult cities to operate in, what is, in your view currently, the hardest aspect of autonomous driving? Is it negotiating with pedestrians? Is it edge cases of perception? Is it planning? Is there a mechanical engineering? Is it data, fleet stuff? What are your thoughts on the challen- the more challenging aspects there?
There might be other outlets. But I think to just sort of even just put that aside, the baseline is really, you know, that’s the focus, that’s the thing you need to solve, and then the fun human things can be solved after. But so from the baseline of just solving autonomous driving and you’re working in San Francisco, one of the more difficult cities to operate in, what is, in your view currently, the hardest aspect of autonomous driving? Is it negotiating with pedestrians? Is it edge cases of perception? Is it planning? Is there a mechanical engineering? Is it data, fleet stuff? What are your thoughts on the challen- the more challenging aspects there?
Kyle Vogt
That’s a good question. I think before we go to that though, I just wanna… I like what you said about the psychology aspect- … of this, ’cause I think one observation I’ve made is I think I read somewhere that I think it’s maybe Americans on average spend, you know, over an hour a day on social media- … Like staring at Facebook. And so that’s just, you know, 60 minutes of your life you’re not getting back, and it’s probably not super productive. And so that’s 3,600 seconds, right? And that’s, you know, it’s a lot of time you’re giving up. And if you compare that to people being on the road, if another vehicle, whether it’s a human driver or autonomous vehicle, delays them by even three seconds- … they’re laying in on the horn.
That’s a good question. I think before we go to that though, I just wanna… I like what you said about the psychology aspect- … of this, ’cause I think one observation I’ve made is I think I read somewhere that I think it’s maybe Americans on average spend, you know, over an hour a day on social media- … Like staring at Facebook. And so that’s just, you know, 60 minutes of your life you’re not getting back, and it’s probably not super productive. And so that’s 3,600 seconds, right? And that’s, you know, it’s a lot of time you’re giving up. And if you compare that to people being on the road, if another vehicle, whether it’s a human driver or autonomous vehicle, delays them by even three seconds- … they’re laying in on the horn.
Kyle Vogt
You know, even though that’s, you know, 1/1000th of the time they waste looking at Facebook every day. So there’s definitely some psychology aspects of this I think that are pretty interesting, road rage in general, and then the question of course, is if everyone is in self-driving cars, do they even notice these three-second delays anymore? ‘Cause they’re doing other things or reading or working or just talking to each other. So it’ll be interesting to see where that goes.
You know, even though that’s, you know, 1/1000th of the time they waste looking at Facebook every day. So there’s definitely some psychology aspects of this I think that are pretty interesting, road rage in general, and then the question of course, is if everyone is in self-driving cars, do they even notice these three-second delays anymore? ‘Cause they’re doing other things or reading or working or just talking to each other. So it’ll be interesting to see where that goes.
Lex Fridman
In a certain aspect, people need to be distracted by something entertaining, something useful inside the car so they don’t pay attention to the external world, and then they can take whatever psychology and bring it back to Twitter- … and then focus on that as opposed to sort of interacting, sort of putting the emotion out there into the world. So it’s an interesting problem, but baseline autonomy.
In a certain aspect, people need to be distracted by something entertaining, something useful inside the car so they don’t pay attention to the external world, and then they can take whatever psychology and bring it back to Twitter- … and then focus on that as opposed to sort of interacting, sort of putting the emotion out there into the world. So it’s an interesting problem, but baseline autonomy.
Kyle Vogt
Yeah, I guess you could say self-driving cars, you know, at scale will lower the collective blood pressure of society probably by a couple points- … Without all that road rage and stress. So that’s a good externality. So back to your question about the technology and the, I guess the biggest problems. And I have a hard time answering that question because, you know, we’ve been at this, like, specifically focusing on driverless cars and all the technology needed to enable that for a little over four and a half years now.
Yeah, I guess you could say self-driving cars, you know, at scale will lower the collective blood pressure of society probably by a couple points- … Without all that road rage and stress. So that’s a good externality. So back to your question about the technology and the, I guess the biggest problems. And I have a hard time answering that question because, you know, we’ve been at this, like, specifically focusing on driverless cars and all the technology needed to enable that for a little over four and a half years now.
Kyle Vogt
And even a year or two in, I felt like we had completed the functionality needed to get someone from point A to point B. As in, if we need to do a left turn maneuver or if we need to drive around a, you know, double parked vehicle into oncoming traffic, or navigate through construction zones, the scaffolding and the building blocks were there pretty early on. And so the challenge is not any one scenario or situation for which, you know, we fail at 100% of those. It’s more, you know, we’re benchmarking against a pretty good or pretty high standard, which is human driving. All things considered, humans are excellent at handling-
And even a year or two in, I felt like we had completed the functionality needed to get someone from point A to point B. As in, if we need to do a left turn maneuver or if we need to drive around a, you know, double parked vehicle into oncoming traffic, or navigate through construction zones, the scaffolding and the building blocks were there pretty early on. And so the challenge is not any one scenario or situation for which, you know, we fail at 100% of those. It’s more, you know, we’re benchmarking against a pretty good or pretty high standard, which is human driving. All things considered, humans are excellent at handling-
Kyle Vogt
… edge cases and, and unexpected scenarios, whereas computers are the opposite. And so beating that baseline set by humans is the challenge. And so what we’ve been doing for quite some time now is basically it’s this continuous improvement process where we find sort of the most, you know, uncomfortable or, or the things that, that could lead to a safety issue, other things, all these events, and then we sort of categorize them and rework parts of our system to make incremental improvements and do that over and over and over again. And we just see sort of the overall performance of the system, you know, actually increasing at a pretty steady clip. But there’s no one thing.
… edge cases and, and unexpected scenarios, whereas computers are the opposite. And so beating that baseline set by humans is the challenge. And so what we’ve been doing for quite some time now is basically it’s this continuous improvement process where we find sort of the most, you know, uncomfortable or, or the things that, that could lead to a safety issue, other things, all these events, and then we sort of categorize them and rework parts of our system to make incremental improvements and do that over and over and over again. And we just see sort of the overall performance of the system, you know, actually increasing at a pretty steady clip. But there’s no one thing.
Kyle Vogt
There’s actually, like, thousands of little things and just, like, polishing functionality and making sure that it handles, you know, every version and possible permutation of a situation by either applying more deep learning systems or just by, you know, adding more test coverage or new scenarios that we develop against, and just grinding on that. It’s, we’re sort of in the unsexy phase of development right now, which is doing the real engineering work that it takes to go from prototype to production.
There’s actually, like, thousands of little things and just, like, polishing functionality and making sure that it handles, you know, every version and possible permutation of a situation by either applying more deep learning systems or just by, you know, adding more test coverage or new scenarios that we develop against, and just grinding on that. It’s, we’re sort of in the unsexy phase of development right now, which is doing the real engineering work that it takes to go from prototype to production.
Lex Fridman
You’re basically scaling the grinding. So, sort of taking seriously the process of all those edge cases, both with human experts and machine learning methods to cover all those situations.
You’re basically scaling the grinding. So, sort of taking seriously the process of all those edge cases, both with human experts and machine learning methods to cover all those situations.
Kyle Vogt
Yeah, and the exciting thing for me is I don’t think that grinding ever stops. Because there’s a moment in time where you’ve crossed that threshold of human performance and become superhuman. But there’s no reason, there’s no first principles reason that AV capability will tap out anywhere near humans. Like, there’s no reason it couldn’t be 20 times better, whether that’s, you know, just better driving or safer driving or more comfortable driving, or even 1,000 times better given enough time. And we intend to basically chase that, you know, forever to build the best possible product.
Yeah, and the exciting thing for me is I don’t think that grinding ever stops. Because there’s a moment in time where you’ve crossed that threshold of human performance and become superhuman. But there’s no reason, there’s no first principles reason that AV capability will tap out anywhere near humans. Like, there’s no reason it couldn’t be 20 times better, whether that’s, you know, just better driving or safer driving or more comfortable driving, or even 1,000 times better given enough time. And we intend to basically chase that, you know, forever to build the best possible product.
Lex Fridman
Better and better and better, and always new edge cases come up and new experiences, so, and you wanna automate that process as much as possible. So what do you think in general in society, when do you think we may have hundreds of thousands of fully autonomous vehicles driving around? So first of all, predictions, nobody knows the future. You’re a part of the leading people trying to define that future, but even then you still don’t know. But if you think about hundreds of thousands of vehicles, so a significant fraction of vehicles in major cities are autonomous. Do you think… Are, are you with Rodney Brooks, who is 2050 and beyond? Or are you more with Elon Musk, who is, “We should’ve had that two years ago”?
Better and better and better, and always new edge cases come up and new experiences, so, and you wanna automate that process as much as possible. So what do you think in general in society, when do you think we may have hundreds of thousands of fully autonomous vehicles driving around? So first of all, predictions, nobody knows the future. You’re a part of the leading people trying to define that future, but even then you still don’t know. But if you think about hundreds of thousands of vehicles, so a significant fraction of vehicles in major cities are autonomous. Do you think… Are, are you with Rodney Brooks, who is 2050 and beyond? Or are you more with Elon Musk, who is, “We should’ve had that two years ago”?
Kyle Vogt
Well, I mean-
Well, I mean-
Lex Fridman
I don’t mean to be-
I don’t mean to be-
Kyle Vogt
… I’d love to have it two years ago, but we’re not there yet. So I guess the way I would think about that is let’s flip that question around. So what would prevent you to reach hundreds of thousands of vehicles? And-
… I’d love to have it two years ago, but we’re not there yet. So I guess the way I would think about that is let’s flip that question around. So what would prevent you to reach hundreds of thousands of vehicles? And-
Lex Fridman
That’s a good rephrasing, yeah.
That’s a good rephrasing, yeah.
Kyle Vogt
Yeah, so the… I’d say the, it seems the consensus among the people developing self-driving cars today is to sort of start with some form of an easier environment, whether it means, you know, lacking inclement weather or, you know, mostly sunny or whatever it is, and then add capability for more complex situations over time. And so if you’re only able to deploy in areas that meet sort of your criteria or the current operating domain of the software you developed that may put a cap on how many cities you could deploy in.
Yeah, so the… I’d say the, it seems the consensus among the people developing self-driving cars today is to sort of start with some form of an easier environment, whether it means, you know, lacking inclement weather or, you know, mostly sunny or whatever it is, and then add capability for more complex situations over time. And so if you’re only able to deploy in areas that meet sort of your criteria or the current operating domain of the software you developed that may put a cap on how many cities you could deploy in.
Kyle Vogt
But then as those restrictions start to fall away, like maybe you add capability to drive really well and safely in heavy rain or snow, you know, that probably opens up the market by two or three-fold in terms of the cities you can expand into and so on. And so the real question is, you know, I know today if we wanted to, we could produce that many autonomous vehicles. But we wouldn’t be able to make use of all of them yet ’cause we would sort of saturate the demand in the cities in which we would want to operate initially. So if I were to guess, like, what the timeline is for those things falling away and reaching hundreds of thousands of vehicles-
But then as those restrictions start to fall away, like maybe you add capability to drive really well and safely in heavy rain or snow, you know, that probably opens up the market by two or three-fold in terms of the cities you can expand into and so on. And so the real question is, you know, I know today if we wanted to, we could produce that many autonomous vehicles. But we wouldn’t be able to make use of all of them yet ’cause we would sort of saturate the demand in the cities in which we would want to operate initially. So if I were to guess, like, what the timeline is for those things falling away and reaching hundreds of thousands of vehicles-
Lex Fridman
Maybe a range is better
Maybe a range is better
Kyle Vogt
… I would, I would say less than five years.
… I would, I would say less than five years.
Lex Fridman
Less than five years. And of course, you’re working hard to make that happen.
Less than five years. And of course, you’re working hard to make that happen.
Startup advice from a founder
Lex Fridman
So you started two companies that were eventually acquired each for a billion dollars. So you’re a pretty good person to ask, what does it take to build a successful startup?
So you started two companies that were eventually acquired each for a billion dollars. So you’re a pretty good person to ask, what does it take to build a successful startup?
Kyle Vogt
Hmm. I think there’s sort of survivor bias here a little bit, but I can try to find some common threads for the things that worked for me, which is, you know, in both of these companies, I was really passionate about the core technology. I actually lay awake at night thinking about these problems and how to solve them. And I think that’s helpful because when you start a business, there are – like to this day there are – these crazy ups and downs. Like one day you think the business is just on, you’re just on top of the world and unstoppable, and the next day you think, “Okay, this is all gonna end.
Hmm. I think there’s sort of survivor bias here a little bit, but I can try to find some common threads for the things that worked for me, which is, you know, in both of these companies, I was really passionate about the core technology. I actually lay awake at night thinking about these problems and how to solve them. And I think that’s helpful because when you start a business, there are – like to this day there are – these crazy ups and downs. Like one day you think the business is just on, you’re just on top of the world and unstoppable, and the next day you think, “Okay, this is all gonna end.
Kyle Vogt
You know, it’s just going south, and it’s gonna be over tomorrow.” Um, and so I think, like, having a true passion that you can fall back on and knowing that you would be doing it even if you weren’t getting paid for it helps you weather those tough times. So that’s one thing. I think the other one is really good people. So I’ve always been surrounded by really good co-founders that are logical thinkers, are always pushing their limits, and have very high levels of integrity. So that’s Dan Kan in my current company, and actually his brother and a couple other guys for Justin.tv and Twitch. And then I think the last thing is just I guess persistence or perseverance. Like… And, and that can apply to sticking to sort of a, the…
You know, it’s just going south, and it’s gonna be over tomorrow.” Um, and so I think, like, having a true passion that you can fall back on and knowing that you would be doing it even if you weren’t getting paid for it helps you weather those tough times. So that’s one thing. I think the other one is really good people. So I’ve always been surrounded by really good co-founders that are logical thinkers, are always pushing their limits, and have very high levels of integrity. So that’s Dan Kan in my current company, and actually his brother and a couple other guys for Justin.tv and Twitch. And then I think the last thing is just I guess persistence or perseverance. Like… And, and that can apply to sticking to sort of a, the…
Kyle Vogt
Or having conviction around the original premise of your idea and sticking around to do all the, you know, the unsexy work to actually make it come to fruition- … including dealing with, you know, whatever it is that you’re not passionate about, whether that’s finance or HR or operations or those things. As long as you are grinding away and working towards, you know, that North Star for your business, whatever it is, and you don’t give up, and you’re making progress every day, it seems like eventually you’ll end up in a good place. And the only things that can slow you down are, you know, running out of money or I suppose your competitor is destroying you. But I think most of the time it’s people giving up or somehow destroying-
Or having conviction around the original premise of your idea and sticking around to do all the, you know, the unsexy work to actually make it come to fruition- … including dealing with, you know, whatever it is that you’re not passionate about, whether that’s finance or HR or operations or those things. As long as you are grinding away and working towards, you know, that North Star for your business, whatever it is, and you don’t give up, and you’re making progress every day, it seems like eventually you’ll end up in a good place. And the only things that can slow you down are, you know, running out of money or I suppose your competitor is destroying you. But I think most of the time it’s people giving up or somehow destroying-
Kyle Vogt
… things themselves rather than being beaten by their competition or running out of money.
… things themselves rather than being beaten by their competition or running out of money.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, if you never quit, eventually you’ll arrive. So, uh-
Yeah, if you never quit, eventually you’ll arrive. So, uh-
Kyle Vogt
That’s a much more concise version of what I was trying to say. Yeah, that was good.
That’s a much more concise version of what I was trying to say. Yeah, that was good.
Lex Fridman
So you went the Y Combinator route twice. What do you think, in a quick question, do you think is the best way to raise funds in the early days? Or not just funds, but just community, develop your idea, and so on. Can you do it solo or maybe with a co-founder? With, like, self-funded? Do you think Y Combinator is good? Is it good to do VC route? Is there no right answer, or is there, from the Y Combinator experience, something that you could take away that that was the right path to take?
So you went the Y Combinator route twice. What do you think, in a quick question, do you think is the best way to raise funds in the early days? Or not just funds, but just community, develop your idea, and so on. Can you do it solo or maybe with a co-founder? With, like, self-funded? Do you think Y Combinator is good? Is it good to do VC route? Is there no right answer, or is there, from the Y Combinator experience, something that you could take away that that was the right path to take?
Kyle Vogt
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer, but if your ambition, I think, is to, you know, see how big you can make something or, or rapidly expand and capture a market or solve a problem or whatever it is, then, you know, going the venture backed route is probably a good approach so that capital doesn’t become your primary constraint. Y Combinator I love because it puts you in this sort of competitive environment where you’re surrounded by, you know, the top maybe 1% of other really highly motivated peers who are in the same place.
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer, but if your ambition, I think, is to, you know, see how big you can make something or, or rapidly expand and capture a market or solve a problem or whatever it is, then, you know, going the venture backed route is probably a good approach so that capital doesn’t become your primary constraint. Y Combinator I love because it puts you in this sort of competitive environment where you’re surrounded by, you know, the top maybe 1% of other really highly motivated peers who are in the same place.
Kyle Vogt
And that environment I think just breeds success, right? If you’re surrounded by really brilliant, hardworking people, you’re gonna feel, you know, sort of compelled or inspired to try to emulate them and, or beat them. And so even though I had done it once before and I felt like, you know, I’m pretty self-motivated, I thought, like, “Look, this is gonna be a hard problem. I can use all the help I can get.” So surrounding myself with other entrepreneurs is gonna make me work a little bit harder or push a little harder, then it’s worth it. And so that’s why I did it, you know, for example, the second time.
And that environment I think just breeds success, right? If you’re surrounded by really brilliant, hardworking people, you’re gonna feel, you know, sort of compelled or inspired to try to emulate them and, or beat them. And so even though I had done it once before and I felt like, you know, I’m pretty self-motivated, I thought, like, “Look, this is gonna be a hard problem. I can use all the help I can get.” So surrounding myself with other entrepreneurs is gonna make me work a little bit harder or push a little harder, then it’s worth it. And so that’s why I did it, you know, for example, the second time.
Lex Fridman
Let’s go philosophical, existential. If you go back and do something differently in your life, starting in high school, then MIT, leaving MIT, you could have gone the PhD route, doing the startup, going to see about a startup in California, and you th- or maybe some aspects of fundraising. Is there something you regret, something you th- well, not necessarily regret, but if you go back you could do differently?
Let’s go philosophical, existential. If you go back and do something differently in your life, starting in high school, then MIT, leaving MIT, you could have gone the PhD route, doing the startup, going to see about a startup in California, and you th- or maybe some aspects of fundraising. Is there something you regret, something you th- well, not necessarily regret, but if you go back you could do differently?
Kyle Vogt
I think I’ve made a lot of mistakes. Like, you know, pretty much everything you can screw up I think I’ve screwed up at least once. But I don’t regret those things. I think it’s hard to look back on things even if they didn’t go well and call it a regret because hopefully, you know, it took away some new knowledge or learning from that. So, I would say there was a period… Yeah the closest I can come to is this. There was a period in Justin.tv I think after seven years where the company was going one direction, which was towards Twitch and video gaming. I’m not a video gamer.
I think I’ve made a lot of mistakes. Like, you know, pretty much everything you can screw up I think I’ve screwed up at least once. But I don’t regret those things. I think it’s hard to look back on things even if they didn’t go well and call it a regret because hopefully, you know, it took away some new knowledge or learning from that. So, I would say there was a period… Yeah the closest I can come to is this. There was a period in Justin.tv I think after seven years where the company was going one direction, which was towards Twitch and video gaming. I’m not a video gamer.
Kyle Vogt
I don’t really even use Twitch at all. And I was still working on the core technology there, but my heart was no longer in it because the business that we were creating was not something that I was personally passionate about.
I don’t really even use Twitch at all. And I was still working on the core technology there, but my heart was no longer in it because the business that we were creating was not something that I was personally passionate about.
Lex Fridman
It didn’t meet your bar of existential impact.
It didn’t meet your bar of existential impact.
Kyle Vogt
Yeah. And I’d say I probably spent an extra year or two working on that. And I’d say, like, I would have just tried to do something different sooner, ’cause those were two years where I felt like, you know, from this philosophical or existential thing, I just felt that something was missing. And so I would have… If I could look back now and tell myself, it’s like I would have said exactly that. Like, “You’re not getting any meaning out of your work personally right now. You should find a way to change that.” And that’s part of the pitch I use to basically everyone who joins Cruise today. It’s like, “Hey, you’ve got that now by coming here.”
Yeah. And I’d say I probably spent an extra year or two working on that. And I’d say, like, I would have just tried to do something different sooner, ’cause those were two years where I felt like, you know, from this philosophical or existential thing, I just felt that something was missing. And so I would have… If I could look back now and tell myself, it’s like I would have said exactly that. Like, “You’re not getting any meaning out of your work personally right now. You should find a way to change that.” And that’s part of the pitch I use to basically everyone who joins Cruise today. It’s like, “Hey, you’ve got that now by coming here.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Well, maybe you needed the two years of that existential dread to develop the feeling that ultimately was the fire that created Cruise, so you never know. You can’t really know.
Yeah. Well, maybe you needed the two years of that existential dread to develop the feeling that ultimately was the fire that created Cruise, so you never know. You can’t really know.
Kyle Vogt
Yeah. Good theory, yeah.
Yeah. Good theory, yeah.
Lex Fridman
So last question, what does 2019 hold for Cruise?
So last question, what does 2019 hold for Cruise?
Kyle Vogt
After this I guess we’re gonna go and- … and I’ll talk to your class. But one of the big things is going from prototype to production for autonomous cars, and what does that mean and what does that look like. And 2019 for us is the year that we try to cross over that threshold and reach, you know, superhuman level of performance to some degree with the software, and have all the other of the thousands of little building blocks in place to launch, you know, our first commercial product. So that’s what’s in store for us, and we’ve got a lot of work to do. We’ve got a lot of brilliant people working on it. So it’s all up to us now.
After this I guess we’re gonna go and- … and I’ll talk to your class. But one of the big things is going from prototype to production for autonomous cars, and what does that mean and what does that look like. And 2019 for us is the year that we try to cross over that threshold and reach, you know, superhuman level of performance to some degree with the software, and have all the other of the thousands of little building blocks in place to launch, you know, our first commercial product. So that’s what’s in store for us, and we’ve got a lot of work to do. We’ve got a lot of brilliant people working on it. So it’s all up to us now.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. From Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek, like the people I’ve crossed paths with-
Yeah. From Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek, like the people I’ve crossed paths with-
Kyle Vogt
Oh, great. Yeah.
Oh, great. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
… the few, it sounds like you have an amazing team. So like I said, it’s one of the most, I think one of the most important problems in artificial intelligence of the century. It’ll be one of the most defining. So it’s super exciting that you’re working on it, and the best of luck in 2019. I’m really excited to see what Cruise comes up with.
… the few, it sounds like you have an amazing team. So like I said, it’s one of the most, I think one of the most important problems in artificial intelligence of the century. It’ll be one of the most defining. So it’s super exciting that you’re working on it, and the best of luck in 2019. I’m really excited to see what Cruise comes up with.
Kyle Vogt
Thank you. Thanks for having me today.
Thank you. Thanks for having me today.
Lex Fridman
Thanks, Kyle.
Thanks, Kyle.
Transcript for DHH: Future of Programming, AI, Agentic Engineering, Vibe Coding & Linux | Lex Fridman Podcast #501
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #501 with DHH.
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the main video. Please note that the transcript is
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Table of Contents
Here are the loose “chapters” in the conversation.
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Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Episode highlight
- 1:27 – Introduction
- 2:56 – Programming with AI agents
- 18:14 – How software will change
- 27:30 – AI impact on open source
- 37:21 – Building Omarchy Linux distro
- 47:05 – Vibe coding vs agentic engineering
- 1:00:06 – The end of manual programming
- 1:10:24 – Advice for programmers
- 1:22:30 – Surviving Internet Hate
- 1:31:46 – Programming setup for AI Agents
- 1:44:11 – Obsessing about speed
- 2:07:06 – Voice prompting vs typing
- 2:21:05 – Best AI coding models
- 2:37:55 – Best AI coding harnesses
- 2:50:57 – AI video generation and filmmaking
- 3:10:28 – Fatherhood
- 3:38:35 – Linux will win the desktop
- 3:49:51 – PewDiePie
- 3:59:24 – Future of programming
- 4:22:17 – Politics and immigration
- 4:53:54 – Longevity, over-optimization, and fear of death
- 5:05:38 – Eternal recurrence and future of human civization
Episode highlight
DHH
There are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen. And we have seen decades of progress happen in the last nine months. If you’re not recognizing the gravity of the moment, that’s the delusion. That’s the psychosis. Who would not get delirious if suddenly a genie pops out of the bottle and says, “You can have whatever you want. Every feature you’ve ever dreamed of in an operating system, I can deliver them to you, most of them in five minutes, a few in 20, and if we really go hog wild, it’s gonna take me two hours.” I want the fastest car breaking the speed limits. I want the diver watch that can go down the Mariana Trench. I want the operating system that can install in less than 60 seconds.
There are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen. And we have seen decades of progress happen in the last nine months. If you’re not recognizing the gravity of the moment, that’s the delusion. That’s the psychosis. Who would not get delirious if suddenly a genie pops out of the bottle and says, “You can have whatever you want. Every feature you’ve ever dreamed of in an operating system, I can deliver them to you, most of them in five minutes, a few in 20, and if we really go hog wild, it’s gonna take me two hours.” I want the fastest car breaking the speed limits. I want the diver watch that can go down the Mariana Trench. I want the operating system that can install in less than 60 seconds.
DHH
One of the things I always loved about race cars was when I would stumble out of the car absolutely smashed and barely able to hold my head up, and I’d lay down on the garage floor and just think, “Holy fuck, I’m alive.” The Overton window does not open itself. It opens one nudge at a time by people risking a little. A little reputation, a little pushback, a little criticism, or maybe sometimes a lot of reputation or a lot of criticism or a lot of pushback. Creating life with another human that you love is literally the peak experience of being on the planet.
One of the things I always loved about race cars was when I would stumble out of the car absolutely smashed and barely able to hold my head up, and I’d lay down on the garage floor and just think, “Holy fuck, I’m alive.” The Overton window does not open itself. It opens one nudge at a time by people risking a little. A little reputation, a little pushback, a little criticism, or maybe sometimes a lot of reputation or a lot of criticism or a lot of pushback. Creating life with another human that you love is literally the peak experience of being on the planet.
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with David Heinemeier Hansson, also known as DHH, creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals, creator of the new Omarchy Linux operating system, best-selling author, race car driver, and one of the most outspoken and prolific programmers in the world. For the past 20-plus years, for him, programming meant meticulously handcrafting beautiful Ruby code. But recently, since late 2025, DHH has embraced the AI revolution and has openly transformed himself into, once again, one of the most outspoken and prolific agentic engineers, even though he hates that term. So let’s say practitioners of whatever programming is becoming where AI is doing most of the actual programming and the human steers the ship with high-level design, vision, and taste. Yes, it’s true.
The following is a conversation with David Heinemeier Hansson, also known as DHH, creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals, creator of the new Omarchy Linux operating system, best-selling author, race car driver, and one of the most outspoken and prolific programmers in the world. For the past 20-plus years, for him, programming meant meticulously handcrafting beautiful Ruby code. But recently, since late 2025, DHH has embraced the AI revolution and has openly transformed himself into, once again, one of the most outspoken and prolific agentic engineers, even though he hates that term. So let’s say practitioners of whatever programming is becoming where AI is doing most of the actual programming and the human steers the ship with high-level design, vision, and taste. Yes, it’s true.
Lex Fridman
DHH is at times controversial, but he’s always fearless, brilliant, and fun to talk to. This was, once again, an intense, eye-opening, and a wild rollercoaster ride of a conversation. This is a Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, dear friends, here’s DHH.
DHH is at times controversial, but he’s always fearless, brilliant, and fun to talk to. This was, once again, an intense, eye-opening, and a wild rollercoaster ride of a conversation. This is a Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, dear friends, here’s DHH.
Programming with AI agents
Lex Fridman
13 months ago, we sat down right here to talk about programming, and then everything changed. At that time, you were a bit skeptical about the role of AI in the process of programming, and then we went through this rapid evolution of agentic engineering. So simple question to start: How has your view on AI’s role in programming changed? Are you excited? Are you terrified?
13 months ago, we sat down right here to talk about programming, and then everything changed. At that time, you were a bit skeptical about the role of AI in the process of programming, and then we went through this rapid evolution of agentic engineering. So simple question to start: How has your view on AI’s role in programming changed? Are you excited? Are you terrified?
Lex Fridman
Are you on an emotional rollercoaster ride?
Are you on an emotional rollercoaster ride?
DHH
I am incredibly excited.
I am incredibly excited.
Lex Fridman
You’ve been talking about fun a lot.
You’ve been talking about fun a lot.
DHH
There is none of the existential threat. That doesn’t exist for me as an emotional component. It is only there as an intellectual component, and the emotional component for me is 100% pure, unadulterated joy- … and optimism and amazement that we’ve made computers do this. And I find it so interesting that we talked just 13 months ago because it’s like we talked in different universes, different eras. I love this quote. I think it’s Lenin. There are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen. And we have seen decades of progress happen in the last nine months. I mean, imagine you’re there when the Wright brothers take flight.
There is none of the existential threat. That doesn’t exist for me as an emotional component. It is only there as an intellectual component, and the emotional component for me is 100% pure, unadulterated joy- … and optimism and amazement that we’ve made computers do this. And I find it so interesting that we talked just 13 months ago because it’s like we talked in different universes, different eras. I love this quote. I think it’s Lenin. There are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen. And we have seen decades of progress happen in the last nine months. I mean, imagine you’re there when the Wright brothers take flight.
DHH
Yesterday, the New York Times would write, “It’s gonna be 10,000 years before we fly,” and then the day after, we’re up in the skies, and just a few years after that, there were cross-Atlantic planes. The whole world has completely changed. What a blessing to be there in that moment. If you zoom out and look at all of human history, how many humans got to live within the same epoch that they were born in? They never saw that complete change of the world and of society. And to have been blessed with two of those feels just such a privilege. I got to see the internet- … from pre-internet to post-internet, and then now pre-AI, post-AI. What an amazing run. How fortunate.
Yesterday, the New York Times would write, “It’s gonna be 10,000 years before we fly,” and then the day after, we’re up in the skies, and just a few years after that, there were cross-Atlantic planes. The whole world has completely changed. What a blessing to be there in that moment. If you zoom out and look at all of human history, how many humans got to live within the same epoch that they were born in? They never saw that complete change of the world and of society. And to have been blessed with two of those feels just such a privilege. I got to see the internet- … from pre-internet to post-internet, and then now pre-AI, post-AI. What an amazing run. How fortunate.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but the thing is, this feels like a thing that happened faster than anything else in human history.
Yeah, but the thing is, this feels like a thing that happened faster than anything else in human history.
DHH
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
So I would say somewhere around December, maybe late November-
So I would say somewhere around December, maybe late November-
DHH
November 24.
November 24.
Lex Fridman
This is…
This is…
DHH
That’s the exact moment.
That’s the exact moment.
Lex Fridman
You know, when they talk about when one nation invades another in a world war or something like this, it– this is how we talk about AI changing everything. Yeah, the… And it really just shifted for many great developers. It shifted to where AI is doing some basic autocomplete, maybe writing 5, 10, 15, 20% of code, to writing 80% of code.
You know, when they talk about when one nation invades another in a world war or something like this, it– this is how we talk about AI changing everything. Yeah, the… And it really just shifted for many great developers. It shifted to where AI is doing some basic autocomplete, maybe writing 5, 10, 15, 20% of code, to writing 80% of code.
DHH
Or 100.
Or 100.
Lex Fridman
Or 100, yeah, especially if it’s not a public-facing product.
Or 100, yeah, especially if it’s not a public-facing product.
DHH
To me, that’s why even when I look back upon our conversation a year ago, I don’t actually have different opinions. I have the same opinions. A year ago, I did not like the mode of AI we were offered. It was the autocomplete mode, or it was the AI chatbot mode. Now, the chatbot I actually liked, as we talked about. Great tutor right from the get-go, great way of looking things up on the internet, not what was gonna replace me chiseling code. But- … then we get the agents.
To me, that’s why even when I look back upon our conversation a year ago, I don’t actually have different opinions. I have the same opinions. A year ago, I did not like the mode of AI we were offered. It was the autocomplete mode, or it was the AI chatbot mode. Now, the chatbot I actually liked, as we talked about. Great tutor right from the get-go, great way of looking things up on the internet, not what was gonna replace me chiseling code. But- … then we get the agents.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
And the agents start out being curiosities for about five minutes, and then they get amazing, and then they get, “Oh my God, is this AGI?” And all of that happened since last year, even just in, within the last nine months. We have basically these few phases here. We have AI in the pre-agentic era. I was excited about that, but it was not fundamentally rewriting the rules of the game for me. It was not completely changing how I worked. I was still chiseling code, I just had a little helper, a little sidekick-
And the agents start out being curiosities for about five minutes, and then they get amazing, and then they get, “Oh my God, is this AGI?” And all of that happened since last year, even just in, within the last nine months. We have basically these few phases here. We have AI in the pre-agentic era. I was excited about that, but it was not fundamentally rewriting the rules of the game for me. It was not completely changing how I worked. I was still chiseling code, I just had a little helper, a little sidekick-
DHH
… who could bounce ideas off, and I could look up this information online and so forth in a more efficient way. It was just a more efficient way to do what I was already doing, and it didn’t change the emotional connection I had to the computer. Then we get to November 24th, 2025. Opus 4.5, to me, was the dividing line, where suddenly… I didn’t even try it on the 24th. I think I tried it on the 26th. I gave it a couple of tasks, and I realize that the quality of the output is uncannily close to what I would’ve written. And I remember just leaning back and thinking, “What just happened?”
… who could bounce ideas off, and I could look up this information online and so forth in a more efficient way. It was just a more efficient way to do what I was already doing, and it didn’t change the emotional connection I had to the computer. Then we get to November 24th, 2025. Opus 4.5, to me, was the dividing line, where suddenly… I didn’t even try it on the 24th. I think I tried it on the 26th. I gave it a couple of tasks, and I realize that the quality of the output is uncannily close to what I would’ve written. And I remember just leaning back and thinking, “What just happened?”
DHH
“How did we go from this autocomplete mess that I was talking to you about in the summer to this just a few short months later? How did we get both the increase in intelligence and then also the increase in usability?” This agent harness question where I don’t know if Opus 4.5 was that much smarter than Opus 4, which is what we had in the summer, but its ability to instrument your computer, to use tools, to check its own work, to apply its intelligence in such a way that you could get real meaningful work out of it, was completely different. And I think this is then the big change that happens for almost anyone who paid attention and started playing with it over the Christmas break. This is what I heard-
“How did we go from this autocomplete mess that I was talking to you about in the summer to this just a few short months later? How did we get both the increase in intelligence and then also the increase in usability?” This agent harness question where I don’t know if Opus 4.5 was that much smarter than Opus 4, which is what we had in the summer, but its ability to instrument your computer, to use tools, to check its own work, to apply its intelligence in such a way that you could get real meaningful work out of it, was completely different. And I think this is then the big change that happens for almost anyone who paid attention and started playing with it over the Christmas break. This is what I heard-
DHH
… from Shopify and other places with lots of employees who suddenly had a breather, suddenly had a couple of weeks to lean back and just look at what was going on, gave it a try, and had the same mind-blowing experience that these agents were of a different genre than what we had before. And then what we get to is, I’m already excited at this point. Like, by December, I’m already revisiting sort of all my priors- … and going like, “Wow, if it can do this, can it also do that?” “Oh, yeah, it can.” And again, Opus 4.5 now looks like a retarded model. And this is the magic of this progress, is you think you’ve reached something… I remember thinking at the moment, “If this is the last model we get, I’ll be set. I’ll be happy.”
… from Shopify and other places with lots of employees who suddenly had a breather, suddenly had a couple of weeks to lean back and just look at what was going on, gave it a try, and had the same mind-blowing experience that these agents were of a different genre than what we had before. And then what we get to is, I’m already excited at this point. Like, by December, I’m already revisiting sort of all my priors- … and going like, “Wow, if it can do this, can it also do that?” “Oh, yeah, it can.” And again, Opus 4.5 now looks like a retarded model. And this is the magic of this progress, is you think you’ve reached something… I remember thinking at the moment, “If this is the last model we get, I’ll be set. I’ll be happy.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Yep.
Yeah. Yep.
DHH
I could live with Opus 4.5 for the next 20 years- … and you would hear no complaints from me because it was just so incredibly amazing to see an agent do all this work in the way that I wanted it done. Because it was not just about it being able to solve a task, it was also that I could look at its path there and go, “Yep. Yep. Maybe not there, but almost,” and it would give you two notes. You’ll get to where I wanted to go in the way I wanted to go there. You could produce code I wanted to merge. You could produce code that actually looked beautiful if it was written in Ruby. Rust, different question. But this ability for the agents to truly become an extension of how I wanted to work was very novel. But then we wait just until early spring, and suddenly we get sub-agents.
I could live with Opus 4.5 for the next 20 years- … and you would hear no complaints from me because it was just so incredibly amazing to see an agent do all this work in the way that I wanted it done. Because it was not just about it being able to solve a task, it was also that I could look at its path there and go, “Yep. Yep. Maybe not there, but almost,” and it would give you two notes. You’ll get to where I wanted to go in the way I wanted to go there. You could produce code I wanted to merge. You could produce code that actually looked beautiful if it was written in Ruby. Rust, different question. But this ability for the agents to truly become an extension of how I wanted to work was very novel. But then we wait just until early spring, and suddenly we get sub-agents.
DHH
We get harnesses that can subdivide the task, and something that would take Opus quite a while suddenly took a fifth of the time, a 10th of the time, because it could get chopped up and suddenly you got eight sub-agents working for you. But both of those two first phases of the agentic age, to me, still felt like I had to drive. I could tell it what I wanted, where to look for it, and steer it a little bit when it went off, and then we’ll get there, and I would go much faster.
We get harnesses that can subdivide the task, and something that would take Opus quite a while suddenly took a fifth of the time, a 10th of the time, because it could get chopped up and suddenly you got eight sub-agents working for you. But both of those two first phases of the agentic age, to me, still felt like I had to drive. I could tell it what I wanted, where to look for it, and steer it a little bit when it went off, and then we’ll get there, and I would go much faster.
DHH
But I had to be in the driver’s seat. I had to tell it what I wanted, and I had to be the reviewer, the auditor of what was coming out. And then finally now, this summer, with Opus 5, Fable, and Sol, GPT Sol, and to a lesser extent, some of the open weight models, we’ve arrived at a new era where I’m not telling it where we’re going. I’m telling it the problem I have. I’m telling it the fuzzy, vague idea I have. It tells me where we’re going. It tells me which path to take, and I will still look at it because I’m a curious person and I like computers and I like the outcome of it, but I really kinda don’t have to. I’ve become optional in the part that produces the code that picks the route. Remember when early GPS systems came out?
But I had to be in the driver’s seat. I had to tell it what I wanted, and I had to be the reviewer, the auditor of what was coming out. And then finally now, this summer, with Opus 5, Fable, and Sol, GPT Sol, and to a lesser extent, some of the open weight models, we’ve arrived at a new era where I’m not telling it where we’re going. I’m telling it the problem I have. I’m telling it the fuzzy, vague idea I have. It tells me where we’re going. It tells me which path to take, and I will still look at it because I’m a curious person and I like computers and I like the outcome of it, but I really kinda don’t have to. I’ve become optional in the part that produces the code that picks the route. Remember when early GPS systems came out?
DHH
They were amazing compared to looking at a map, but you still wanted to pay attention. Is it gonna drive you in the harbor? I remember these newspaper articles. “Ah, GPS, they’re terrible because people don’t pay attention, they drive in the harbor.” When was the last time GPS drove anyone in the harbor? Like, that just doesn’t happen anymore. In fact, the cars now just drive themselves, right? And this is where we’ve arrived at now, that I can trust. For the domain I’m working in right now, I can trust it and feel completely confident that it’s gonna have my back. It’s not gonna do something stupid, and if it does something stupid, it’s gonna be able to recover.
They were amazing compared to looking at a map, but you still wanted to pay attention. Is it gonna drive you in the harbor? I remember these newspaper articles. “Ah, GPS, they’re terrible because people don’t pay attention, they drive in the harbor.” When was the last time GPS drove anyone in the harbor? Like, that just doesn’t happen anymore. In fact, the cars now just drive themselves, right? And this is where we’ve arrived at now, that I can trust. For the domain I’m working in right now, I can trust it and feel completely confident that it’s gonna have my back. It’s not gonna do something stupid, and if it does something stupid, it’s gonna be able to recover.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. We should mention that there’s all kinds of domains that-
Mm-hmm. We should mention that there’s all kinds of domains that-
DHH
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
… programmers operate in. There’s… I actually don’t know, but I think the most common domain in development is, like, web dev CRUD. You have a database.
… programmers operate in. There’s… I actually don’t know, but I think the most common domain in development is, like, web dev CRUD. You have a database.
Lex Fridman
You have a user-facing interface, and it does something back and forth, and it could be internal to just one person, to multiple people, to a small number of people, or to the world. And I think for that, it’s– I mean, you could really get to the 100% of code written by AI and really almost– if you’re a good programmer and you have a good intuition about what’s happening behind the scenes, you can legitimately not look at the code, at least that’s been my experience. I don’t know how much prior experience with programming you need to have to kinda know that things are working correctly behind the scenes, like intuitively by observing the ripple effects, the symptoms of the system.
You have a user-facing interface, and it does something back and forth, and it could be internal to just one person, to multiple people, to a small number of people, or to the world. And I think for that, it’s– I mean, you could really get to the 100% of code written by AI and really almost– if you’re a good programmer and you have a good intuition about what’s happening behind the scenes, you can legitimately not look at the code, at least that’s been my experience. I don’t know how much prior experience with programming you need to have to kinda know that things are working correctly behind the scenes, like intuitively by observing the ripple effects, the symptoms of the system.
Lex Fridman
But I think for that domain it’s close to 100%, and then there’s domains like you’re also operating in, which is writing a Linux distribution. There, maybe there’s more because you’re obsessed with speed and all that kind of stuff. There, maybe you need to look at the code a little bit more. Then there’s maybe safety critical systems all the way down to operating a nuclear power plant or a self-driving car. Maybe you need to look at the code more carefully.
But I think for that domain it’s close to 100%, and then there’s domains like you’re also operating in, which is writing a Linux distribution. There, maybe there’s more because you’re obsessed with speed and all that kind of stuff. There, maybe you need to look at the code a little bit more. Then there’s maybe safety critical systems all the way down to operating a nuclear power plant or a self-driving car. Maybe you need to look at the code more carefully.
DHH
Yes, but that said, AI is insanely capable at both finding-
Yes, but that said, AI is insanely capable at both finding-
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
… and fixing security vulnerabilities. This was the whole blowup about Fable. This model was so capable of finding holes that an attacker could exploit that it was simply not safe to release. So the irony here is that when you look at that field, it seems like we’ve reached levels of intelligence that virtually no human can match because many of these security holes are about stringing combo moves together. You find one little vulnerability here that by itself might not be the worst thing in the world, but then you combine it with four others, and suddenly you have RCE, remote command execution. Humans who are able to do that are very rare. They usually work inside state-sponsored organizations or other clandestine operations. They’re not just out and about finding things.
… and fixing security vulnerabilities. This was the whole blowup about Fable. This model was so capable of finding holes that an attacker could exploit that it was simply not safe to release. So the irony here is that when you look at that field, it seems like we’ve reached levels of intelligence that virtually no human can match because many of these security holes are about stringing combo moves together. You find one little vulnerability here that by itself might not be the worst thing in the world, but then you combine it with four others, and suddenly you have RCE, remote command execution. Humans who are able to do that are very rare. They usually work inside state-sponsored organizations or other clandestine operations. They’re not just out and about finding things.
DHH
So they’ve gotten so good at that. The Linux distribution is why I’ve gotten 100% AI pilled. Because I’ve been working on Omarchy for the last three months, this version that just dropped a few days ago called Quattro. And almost right from the beginning I’m working on that version, the agent acceleration neared 100%, and in the last two months it has been 100%. I have not written-
So they’ve gotten so good at that. The Linux distribution is why I’ve gotten 100% AI pilled. Because I’ve been working on Omarchy for the last three months, this version that just dropped a few days ago called Quattro. And almost right from the beginning I’m working on that version, the agent acceleration neared 100%, and in the last two months it has been 100%. I have not written-
Lex Fridman
Really?
Really?
DHH
… any of the code that’s shipped in Quattro by hand. I’ve reviewed the shape of all of it. I’ve reviewed the individual lines of anything that’s critical in the model layer of the system, and I’ve not looked at a bunch of the UI code. I have not looked at a bunch of the auxiliary code, and I’ve not written any of the new functionality entirely by hand. But then the web part, actually evolving Basecamp and Hey, our professional products that have lots of users and are relatively large code bases, have proven surprisingly tricky to fully accelerate with agents. We just released Basecamp 5 not too long ago. That was the first product at 37signals that was really agent accelerated. Because we were in this final sprint phase from around February. By then, agents were already good.
… any of the code that’s shipped in Quattro by hand. I’ve reviewed the shape of all of it. I’ve reviewed the individual lines of anything that’s critical in the model layer of the system, and I’ve not looked at a bunch of the UI code. I have not looked at a bunch of the auxiliary code, and I’ve not written any of the new functionality entirely by hand. But then the web part, actually evolving Basecamp and Hey, our professional products that have lots of users and are relatively large code bases, have proven surprisingly tricky to fully accelerate with agents. We just released Basecamp 5 not too long ago. That was the first product at 37signals that was really agent accelerated. Because we were in this final sprint phase from around February. By then, agents were already good.
DHH
And we had this early surge of, “It’s solved. We can just have the designers do the programming. They know what features they want. They know what shape they want it to take. Let them vibe.” And we let them vibe. And we ended up with a lot of PRs that individually perhaps could have been justified for a hot moment, but taken all together, destroyed the architecture of the system. And we actually had to clean up manually, mop it up by hand, by human hand, to get back to an architecture that felt cohesive and coherent. So we still have a bit of that– that was February, by the way. Things are quite different now.
And we had this early surge of, “It’s solved. We can just have the designers do the programming. They know what features they want. They know what shape they want it to take. Let them vibe.” And we let them vibe. And we ended up with a lot of PRs that individually perhaps could have been justified for a hot moment, but taken all together, destroyed the architecture of the system. And we actually had to clean up manually, mop it up by hand, by human hand, to get back to an architecture that felt cohesive and coherent. So we still have a bit of that– that was February, by the way. Things are quite different now.
Lex Fridman
Well, hold on a second. What’s the lesson from that? Is one of the lessons from that that you have to be a programmer at this stage to be able to vibe code?
Well, hold on a second. What’s the lesson from that? Is one of the lessons from that that you have to be a programmer at this stage to be able to vibe code?
DHH
To be able to vibe code on existing substantial-
To be able to vibe code on existing substantial-
Lex Fridman
I see.
I see.
DHH
… code bases, even if they’re crud, if you wanna retain the element of architecture that got that system to where it was. Now, that’s also a point where I’ve stressed many times that when people accuse vibe coders of being slob generators, I go right back at them and say, “Have you looked at the average programmer’s output?” That is some other slob too. If you’ve looked at behind the scenes of many great companies and what their code bases look like after there’s been 3,000 humans through them, they’re awful. Absolutely awful.
… code bases, even if they’re crud, if you wanna retain the element of architecture that got that system to where it was. Now, that’s also a point where I’ve stressed many times that when people accuse vibe coders of being slob generators, I go right back at them and say, “Have you looked at the average programmer’s output?” That is some other slob too. If you’ve looked at behind the scenes of many great companies and what their code bases look like after there’s been 3,000 humans through them, they’re awful. Absolutely awful.
How software will change
Lex Fridman
Can you tell me the intuition you have? I seem to—just stepping back and observing the different apps that we all rely on, I don’t know, Adobe Photoshop, all this kind of stuff—there seems to be… the progress on development there has not accelerated. So why is it, what lessons can you draw from Basecamp, like well-established, huge user base? Why aren’t we seeing, like, super rapid increase in, like, new updates, features, all this kind of stuff in these well-established apps?
Can you tell me the intuition you have? I seem to—just stepping back and observing the different apps that we all rely on, I don’t know, Adobe Photoshop, all this kind of stuff—there seems to be… the progress on development there has not accelerated. So why is it, what lessons can you draw from Basecamp, like well-established, huge user base? Why aren’t we seeing, like, super rapid increase in, like, new updates, features, all this kind of stuff in these well-established apps?
DHH
Multiple reasons. I’ll start with the first one that’s the most critical. As soon as you’re having human teams work together on something, the bottleneck is rarely implementation. It’s human bandwidth and communication. When you have a product manager and a couple of designers and a VP above them and a CTO above them, and everyone wants to be part of the shaping process because we’re all justifying why we’re here, that’s where all the productivity goes to die. The revelation I’ve had working on Omarchy the last three months is that to get that magical 10X, 100X, in a few rare cases, 1000X productivity boost, you have to interact with the agents directly, and you cannot intermediate that bandwidth with another human because it’s simply too slow.
Multiple reasons. I’ll start with the first one that’s the most critical. As soon as you’re having human teams work together on something, the bottleneck is rarely implementation. It’s human bandwidth and communication. When you have a product manager and a couple of designers and a VP above them and a CTO above them, and everyone wants to be part of the shaping process because we’re all justifying why we’re here, that’s where all the productivity goes to die. The revelation I’ve had working on Omarchy the last three months is that to get that magical 10X, 100X, in a few rare cases, 1000X productivity boost, you have to interact with the agents directly, and you cannot intermediate that bandwidth with another human because it’s simply too slow.
DHH
And on the one hand, that’s a bit of a bummer. I mean, I like humans, and it’s great to work together. But it also means we need to temper our expectations with what these agents can do if it’s humans driving it, and you have three layers of approval and all the other machinery of a large corporation. The implementation part is only a small segment of it. The other thing I’d say is that most organizations don’t know what they want. They don’t know how to make it better. They’re not bottlenecked on implementation. They’re bottlenecked on ideas. They’re bottlenecked on vision. They’re bottlenecked on taste. And if you don’t have those elements in excess of your implementational capacity, it doesn’t help. So you can make a lot of shitty ideas come true, then what? Are you gonna ship that?
And on the one hand, that’s a bit of a bummer. I mean, I like humans, and it’s great to work together. But it also means we need to temper our expectations with what these agents can do if it’s humans driving it, and you have three layers of approval and all the other machinery of a large corporation. The implementation part is only a small segment of it. The other thing I’d say is that most organizations don’t know what they want. They don’t know how to make it better. They’re not bottlenecked on implementation. They’re bottlenecked on ideas. They’re bottlenecked on vision. They’re bottlenecked on taste. And if you don’t have those elements in excess of your implementational capacity, it doesn’t help. So you can make a lot of shitty ideas come true, then what? Are you gonna ship that?
DHH
That sounds like, I don’t know, something coming out of Microsoft. That’s not what we’re trying to replicate here. That process is not actually… Because we already had this. If you step back for a moment and think of the towering organizations we have who have had tens of thousands of programmers at their disposal. I mean, I’m picking on Microsoft here. I love Microsoft some of the time, but I’ll pick on them in this case because they have had endless resources, endless programming capacity for decades, right? This is what’s showing us that just being able to write a lot of code does not produce great compelling software. Now, the other thing is we’ve had this capacity for about six months. That’s not very long in human life cycle capacity of internalizing what’s going on.
That sounds like, I don’t know, something coming out of Microsoft. That’s not what we’re trying to replicate here. That process is not actually… Because we already had this. If you step back for a moment and think of the towering organizations we have who have had tens of thousands of programmers at their disposal. I mean, I’m picking on Microsoft here. I love Microsoft some of the time, but I’ll pick on them in this case because they have had endless resources, endless programming capacity for decades, right? This is what’s showing us that just being able to write a lot of code does not produce great compelling software. Now, the other thing is we’ve had this capacity for about six months. That’s not very long in human life cycle capacity of internalizing what’s going on.
DHH
And I think it’s actually funny that the critique of AI is, why isn’t it going faster? What are you talking about? We’ve not had any other form of progress that has moved as fast as AI, and you’re impatient because in the last three months we haven’t rewritten the whole world and made it a utopia of software goodness?
And I think it’s actually funny that the critique of AI is, why isn’t it going faster? What are you talking about? We’ve not had any other form of progress that has moved as fast as AI, and you’re impatient because in the last three months we haven’t rewritten the whole world and made it a utopia of software goodness?
Lex Fridman
You’re basically saying everybody should be switching to Linux now. One of the arguments is, like, we can rewrite all the software that’s not available in Linux in Linux. Linux has been the love of my life for many years, but one of the reasons I’m still attached to Windows and now Mac is because of video editing, Premiere.
You’re basically saying everybody should be switching to Linux now. One of the arguments is, like, we can rewrite all the software that’s not available in Linux in Linux. Linux has been the love of my life for many years, but one of the reasons I’m still attached to Windows and now Mac is because of video editing, Premiere.
DHH
We’re gonna fix that. But-
We’re gonna fix that. But-
Lex Fridman
So the question is, who’s gonna build Premiere and Photoshop for Linux? And it feels like one person can now.
So the question is, who’s gonna build Premiere and Photoshop for Linux? And it feels like one person can now.
DHH
100% one person can.
100% one person can.
Lex Fridman
And so, and I’m allowed to be impatient. In fact, me or anyone else, impatience is the first step of doing it yourself, right? Like-
And so, and I’m allowed to be impatient. In fact, me or anyone else, impatience is the first step of doing it yourself, right? Like-
DHH
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
… and there’s a community of tens of thousands of people that use Adobe Premiere or DaVinci, all these non-linear video editors, that know the frustrations. Everybody shares them. You can look at Reddit. You can look at the forums. Everybody knows it. I don’t know what it is. It may be the management. It may be the meetings. All the things you’ve always discussed is the bureaucracy that’s inside companies that’s slowing everything down in the development of features. But it feels like there– if you just let some of the developers loose with a bunch of agents, you can fix all that.
… and there’s a community of tens of thousands of people that use Adobe Premiere or DaVinci, all these non-linear video editors, that know the frustrations. Everybody shares them. You can look at Reddit. You can look at the forums. Everybody knows it. I don’t know what it is. It may be the management. It may be the meetings. All the things you’ve always discussed is the bureaucracy that’s inside companies that’s slowing everything down in the development of features. But it feels like there– if you just let some of the developers loose with a bunch of agents, you can fix all that.
Lex Fridman
But again, based on everything you’re saying, maybe the way to do that is to start over from scratch, maybe through open source, or somebody launches a new company, that within large companies now it’s hard to really accelerate into the agentic era by letting developers just build.
But again, based on everything you’re saying, maybe the way to do that is to start over from scratch, maybe through open source, or somebody launches a new company, that within large companies now it’s hard to really accelerate into the agentic era by letting developers just build.
DHH
This is the classic innovator’s dilemma. These companies have gotten so good, so established at the old way, and therefore their entire structure, management layers, processes are tuned for a time that no longer exists. But you can’t pivot that. These are super tankers. It just doesn’t happen. This is why we’re finally getting this upset in the technology industry. For a while, I was very upset about the duopoly between Apple and Google on mobile, because it felt like mobile was the most important computing platform that we had, and I could not see a path to unseat either Google or Apple sitting on top of that, controlling everything, taking their toll booth money. But the game has changed. This is no longer the most important platform.
This is the classic innovator’s dilemma. These companies have gotten so good, so established at the old way, and therefore their entire structure, management layers, processes are tuned for a time that no longer exists. But you can’t pivot that. These are super tankers. It just doesn’t happen. This is why we’re finally getting this upset in the technology industry. For a while, I was very upset about the duopoly between Apple and Google on mobile, because it felt like mobile was the most important computing platform that we had, and I could not see a path to unseat either Google or Apple sitting on top of that, controlling everything, taking their toll booth money. But the game has changed. This is no longer the most important platform.
DHH
Mobile phones are important, but there’s also a lot of other form factors coming, whether it’s glasses or it’s earpieces or whatever else have you. It’s all in play now, but the computing platforms themselves are in play for the first time in probably 40 years, if you look at the desktop. Linux has been around since ’91. It’s not taken off or taken over on the desktop. It’s taken over everything else. All the devices you have on your desk, your fridge, your toaster, everything runs Linux except for your computer. Now, funnily enough, your Android is actually Linux, but wrapped so sufficiently that you can’t really recognize it. But now there’s an opening, and the opening is exactly as you say it.
Mobile phones are important, but there’s also a lot of other form factors coming, whether it’s glasses or it’s earpieces or whatever else have you. It’s all in play now, but the computing platforms themselves are in play for the first time in probably 40 years, if you look at the desktop. Linux has been around since ’91. It’s not taken off or taken over on the desktop. It’s taken over everything else. All the devices you have on your desk, your fridge, your toaster, everything runs Linux except for your computer. Now, funnily enough, your Android is actually Linux, but wrapped so sufficiently that you can’t really recognize it. But now there’s an opening, and the opening is exactly as you say it.
DHH
If there’s a piece of software you depended on that bound you to Windows, it is completely within reach for you personally to start rewriting it. And maybe you won’t get to 100% coverage, but this is the old joke about Microsoft Office. “I only use 5%.” Yeah, well, we all use a different 5%. Well, what if we all just build our own 5%? What if I just took the functionality that I need and just did that? That is a completely different challenge and one agents are incredibly capable of doing right now today, and I’ve done it a lot of times over. So one of the amazing things I’ve found with the latest agent engaged is I have become a polyglot programmer, something I was absolutely not before. I was a Ruby programmer- … first and foremost, and then I dabbled a little bit in Bash-
If there’s a piece of software you depended on that bound you to Windows, it is completely within reach for you personally to start rewriting it. And maybe you won’t get to 100% coverage, but this is the old joke about Microsoft Office. “I only use 5%.” Yeah, well, we all use a different 5%. Well, what if we all just build our own 5%? What if I just took the functionality that I need and just did that? That is a completely different challenge and one agents are incredibly capable of doing right now today, and I’ve done it a lot of times over. So one of the amazing things I’ve found with the latest agent engaged is I have become a polyglot programmer, something I was absolutely not before. I was a Ruby programmer- … first and foremost, and then I dabbled a little bit in Bash-
DHH
… when I had to. And in the last two months, I’ve written C++. I’ve written three applications that have shipped in Omarchy Quattro. I wrote a writing app. I was using this app called Typora, which is a very nice app-
… when I had to. And in the last two months, I’ve written C++. I’ve written three applications that have shipped in Omarchy Quattro. I wrote a writing app. I was using this app called Typora, which is a very nice app-
Lex Fridman
Great, great app
Great, great app
DHH
… which in itself is based on another app called iA Writer, which was my real love on the Mac- … for a clean, simple Markdown writing environment. That’s where I write all my essays.
… which in itself is based on another app called iA Writer, which was my real love on the Mac- … for a clean, simple Markdown writing environment. That’s where I write all my essays.
DHH
And then I moved to Linux, and I couldn’t get iA Writer, so I moved over to this other tool called Typora. It was a piece of shareware, and it had a lot of features I just didn’t need. And about six weeks, seven weeks ago, I thought, “Do you know what? I only need 5% of Typora,” which is already a basic app. I literally told the agent to get going, that I wanted it written in C++ and Qt, because that would fit well with the aesthetic of what I was building with Quattro. And in, I think, about 20 minutes, it had the first version. I started using it, and it wasn’t quite right. Within two days, I’d given up Typora, and I wrote and have written all of my essays since that moment in Omawrite.
And then I moved to Linux, and I couldn’t get iA Writer, so I moved over to this other tool called Typora. It was a piece of shareware, and it had a lot of features I just didn’t need. And about six weeks, seven weeks ago, I thought, “Do you know what? I only need 5% of Typora,” which is already a basic app. I literally told the agent to get going, that I wanted it written in C++ and Qt, because that would fit well with the aesthetic of what I was building with Quattro. And in, I think, about 20 minutes, it had the first version. I started using it, and it wasn’t quite right. Within two days, I’d given up Typora, and I wrote and have written all of my essays since that moment in Omawrite.
AI impact on open source
Lex Fridman
Can I ask for your advice and your vision about something? So what I find with agents, you can actually write something like a replacement for Typora that is perfectly customized to you, to your needs- … with just one user in mind. And then there’s a version of that that starts with one user in mind but expands to a larger audience. So I’ve actually written a large number of software just for me, and I find it easier to do and better to get my situation done. For example, I have a video editor I’ve written, which is very easy to do just for me.
Can I ask for your advice and your vision about something? So what I find with agents, you can actually write something like a replacement for Typora that is perfectly customized to you, to your needs- … with just one user in mind. And then there’s a version of that that starts with one user in mind but expands to a larger audience. So I’ve actually written a large number of software just for me, and I find it easier to do and better to get my situation done. For example, I have a video editor I’ve written, which is very easy to do just for me.
Lex Fridman
I’ve never, unlike you, built something that’s used by a large number of people, and I find that a bit scary and intimidating. So, like, at this, with this agentic age, how do you take a step to actually build something that solves your problem, which I think is a beautiful way to build, but also expand it to actually useful for other people? Like, is there advice you can give, and do you also see the problem of how easy it is to just build a tool for yourself?
I’ve never, unlike you, built something that’s used by a large number of people, and I find that a bit scary and intimidating. So, like, at this, with this agentic age, how do you take a step to actually build something that solves your problem, which I think is a beautiful way to build, but also expand it to actually useful for other people? Like, is there advice you can give, and do you also see the problem of how easy it is to just build a tool for yourself?
DHH
Yes, but it is simpler than you think. By the time you’re done building the tool for yourself, you simply tell your agent to put it on GitHub. You don’t even have to do anything else. It will figure out how to put that repo on GitHub. It’ll write a nice README. It’ll start using GitHub releases so that you can track things. It’ll actually be a better software maintainer than you could ever be- … because it is far more patient, it is far more diligent in doing the drudgery of managing open source software than you are.
Yes, but it is simpler than you think. By the time you’re done building the tool for yourself, you simply tell your agent to put it on GitHub. You don’t even have to do anything else. It will figure out how to put that repo on GitHub. It’ll write a nice README. It’ll start using GitHub releases so that you can track things. It’ll actually be a better software maintainer than you could ever be- … because it is far more patient, it is far more diligent in doing the drudgery of managing open source software than you are.
DHH
And you can simply get on with the joy of using the software that you built and evolving it as you see fit. Now, this gets into the big argument we’ve been having in open source for a while. Are AI contributions good or bad for the maintainer? There’s a lot of maintainers right now who are quite upset about the fact that they’re suddenly getting a huge influx of pull requests, of contributions from people who may not be the best programmers or programmers at all- … towards their software. I look at that argument and go, “Are you kidding me?” Here is a vein of free contributions that you can take or don’t take, but you’re complaining about the fact that they’re there? It sounds straight out of- My steak is too juicy and my lobster too buttery. What are you complaining about?
And you can simply get on with the joy of using the software that you built and evolving it as you see fit. Now, this gets into the big argument we’ve been having in open source for a while. Are AI contributions good or bad for the maintainer? There’s a lot of maintainers right now who are quite upset about the fact that they’re suddenly getting a huge influx of pull requests, of contributions from people who may not be the best programmers or programmers at all- … towards their software. I look at that argument and go, “Are you kidding me?” Here is a vein of free contributions that you can take or don’t take, but you’re complaining about the fact that they’re there? It sounds straight out of- My steak is too juicy and my lobster too buttery. What are you complaining about?
DHH
This is the most amazing thing. This is what we proclamated for so long was going to be the magic of open source, that we could all contribute to it, but it was, of course, never true. There was only a small subset of people who contribute to open source, and that was the very highly skilled wizards. So this is a bit of a reformation moment. We had this disintermediation between us and the computer, and it was this class of clerics and priests called programmers, and suddenly they’re being disintermediated here by was it the 95 theses by Luther in 1500s, nailing them to the door? And one of those was very clearly about the intermediation, that you should have direct access to the higher intelligence.
This is the most amazing thing. This is what we proclamated for so long was going to be the magic of open source, that we could all contribute to it, but it was, of course, never true. There was only a small subset of people who contribute to open source, and that was the very highly skilled wizards. So this is a bit of a reformation moment. We had this disintermediation between us and the computer, and it was this class of clerics and priests called programmers, and suddenly they’re being disintermediated here by was it the 95 theses by Luther in 1500s, nailing them to the door? And one of those was very clearly about the intermediation, that you should have direct access to the higher intelligence.
Lex Fridman
But don’t you need the wizards to keep a high bar of excellence in the code base?
But don’t you need the wizards to keep a high bar of excellence in the code base?
DHH
100% you do, which is also something that’s always been true about open source, which is the second argument that really grinds me. I’ve been running open source projects for 25 years. I have literally looked at the output of thousands, if not tens of thousands of programmers. I feel like I have the statistical basis to assert that most programmers, they suck. And I don’t mean that in the way it sounds.
100% you do, which is also something that’s always been true about open source, which is the second argument that really grinds me. I’ve been running open source projects for 25 years. I have literally looked at the output of thousands, if not tens of thousands of programmers. I feel like I have the statistical basis to assert that most programmers, they suck. And I don’t mean that in the way it sounds.
DHH
That was why I paused for a hot second here. I mean, they suck in the sense that they don’t write the code I want to have written. They don’t prepare their bug reports with all the relevant information. They don’t detail their pull requests with the why. They don’t bother to fill in needed code comments. They don’t double-check their work. They don’t write unit tests. They don’t do all of these things it takes to create good software. But do you know who’ll do all that stuff? Agents, if you tell them to. They’re very diligent at following your instructions, most of the time, sometimes to a fault. But it actually means that if you take the median programmer and their pull requests towards an average open source project, they’re already getting outclassed by agents.
That was why I paused for a hot second here. I mean, they suck in the sense that they don’t write the code I want to have written. They don’t prepare their bug reports with all the relevant information. They don’t detail their pull requests with the why. They don’t bother to fill in needed code comments. They don’t double-check their work. They don’t write unit tests. They don’t do all of these things it takes to create good software. But do you know who’ll do all that stuff? Agents, if you tell them to. They’re very diligent at following your instructions, most of the time, sometimes to a fault. But it actually means that if you take the median programmer and their pull requests towards an average open source project, they’re already getting outclassed by agents.
DHH
I would rather get an agent-written pull request to one of my projects than I’d get one written by a human, and it’s not just because the quality’s better. It’s also because I feel a lot less bad if I just reject it. You didn’t even write it, so I can simply look at what your agent wrote on your behalf and go, “Eh, don’t want it.” That’s always been true in open source, and in fact, I think this is one of the problems with open source maintainers. They have way too much ball of neuroticism and anxiety that requires them to look upon any contribution as an obligation on their part to do everything to get that to land in the code base. That’s not true at all.
I would rather get an agent-written pull request to one of my projects than I’d get one written by a human, and it’s not just because the quality’s better. It’s also because I feel a lot less bad if I just reject it. You didn’t even write it, so I can simply look at what your agent wrote on your behalf and go, “Eh, don’t want it.” That’s always been true in open source, and in fact, I think this is one of the problems with open source maintainers. They have way too much ball of neuroticism and anxiety that requires them to look upon any contribution as an obligation on their part to do everything to get that to land in the code base. That’s not true at all.
DHH
You can simply say, “No,” or even better, you can say, “No thank you.” And if you get into the mode of realizing that your project is allowed to exist and evolve according to your vision, according to your roadmap, it becomes so much easier in the agentic age to decline the contributions you don’t want because you don’t even inconvenience or hurt the feelings of a human. It’s just a clanker, and the clanker won’t mind. In fact, the producers of clankers, the labs, love when you spend tokens in vain. They get paid just the same. So, in my opinion, this is the absolute best time to ever have been an open source software maintainer.
You can simply say, “No,” or even better, you can say, “No thank you.” And if you get into the mode of realizing that your project is allowed to exist and evolve according to your vision, according to your roadmap, it becomes so much easier in the agentic age to decline the contributions you don’t want because you don’t even inconvenience or hurt the feelings of a human. It’s just a clanker, and the clanker won’t mind. In fact, the producers of clankers, the labs, love when you spend tokens in vain. They get paid just the same. So, in my opinion, this is the absolute best time to ever have been an open source software maintainer.
DHH
Not only do we get this wealth of glorious pull requests made by agents with all the boxes ticked, we also get to tap into a creativity of people who did not have access to contribute to a project before. I’ve been running the Omarchy project now for a little over a year, and in the last three months working on Quattro, I have merged over 1,000 pull requests. Quite a lot of those pull requests were written by people who were not classical programmers, or were programmers in other domains, not Linux operating system or distribution development. They were able to contribute their good ideas because of agents, and I got to cherry-pick the very best of that-
Not only do we get this wealth of glorious pull requests made by agents with all the boxes ticked, we also get to tap into a creativity of people who did not have access to contribute to a project before. I’ve been running the Omarchy project now for a little over a year, and in the last three months working on Quattro, I have merged over 1,000 pull requests. Quite a lot of those pull requests were written by people who were not classical programmers, or were programmers in other domains, not Linux operating system or distribution development. They were able to contribute their good ideas because of agents, and I got to cherry-pick the very best of that-
DHH
… because it was there. Otherwise, those ideas would just have lived inside their heads. Again, is that not the purpose of open source, that we tap into the collective intelligence and creativity of the whole goddamn planet, and we channel that towards a commons where we all benefit from the combined efforts of everyone? Now, there’s currently, I think, about 400 unmerged pull requests on Omarchy, about double what it was a week ago. So the acceleration is real, but so are the tools. I’m not reviewing every pull request anymore. I haven’t been reviewing them for quite some time now. I have the agents- … review them for me- … and then they will give me a summary about whether something is ready for the decision, the human decision. Should we merge or should we not merge?
… because it was there. Otherwise, those ideas would just have lived inside their heads. Again, is that not the purpose of open source, that we tap into the collective intelligence and creativity of the whole goddamn planet, and we channel that towards a commons where we all benefit from the combined efforts of everyone? Now, there’s currently, I think, about 400 unmerged pull requests on Omarchy, about double what it was a week ago. So the acceleration is real, but so are the tools. I’m not reviewing every pull request anymore. I haven’t been reviewing them for quite some time now. I have the agents- … review them for me- … and then they will give me a summary about whether something is ready for the decision, the human decision. Should we merge or should we not merge?
DHH
I don’t need to look at all the pull requests that are either wrong, duplicated, bad. An agent can sort that chaff away from me. I just get to look at the pearls- … the good ideas that are ready to go, the bug fixes that the agent has validated in a VM on my behalf. All the drudgery of replicating and managing open source projects is evaporating at lightning speed, and we are left with the golden juicy parts, the bone marrow of software development- … deciding what should this thing do and where should it go?
I don’t need to look at all the pull requests that are either wrong, duplicated, bad. An agent can sort that chaff away from me. I just get to look at the pearls- … the good ideas that are ready to go, the bug fixes that the agent has validated in a VM on my behalf. All the drudgery of replicating and managing open source projects is evaporating at lightning speed, and we are left with the golden juicy parts, the bone marrow of software development- … deciding what should this thing do and where should it go?
Lex Fridman
Do you think the good ideas, ultimately the kernel of the good ideas originated in the human mind, so the individual contributors Like, can it be done by agents, or is the PR ultimately requires a human idea? Like how to improve Omarchy, all those incoming… Or can it all just be a pool of agents?
Do you think the good ideas, ultimately the kernel of the good ideas originated in the human mind, so the individual contributors Like, can it be done by agents, or is the PR ultimately requires a human idea? Like how to improve Omarchy, all those incoming… Or can it all just be a pool of agents?
DHH
That was the mode and the way I was thinking about agents in the first agentic age from November 24 to February 28. I thought all the ideas would originate with the humans. They would tell their agents what to build, and off they went. I don’t think that’s true anymore at all. I have seen things you people wouldn’t believe, ideas coming out of models so great that it makes me humble- … as a person who otherwise prides himself on having good ideas. The agents are incredibly capable of creative thought, and folks who are still stuck in the analysis that agents are parrots- … just regurgitating the ideas that are already there, are delusional about the progress that’s been made in the last six to nine months.
That was the mode and the way I was thinking about agents in the first agentic age from November 24 to February 28. I thought all the ideas would originate with the humans. They would tell their agents what to build, and off they went. I don’t think that’s true anymore at all. I have seen things you people wouldn’t believe, ideas coming out of models so great that it makes me humble- … as a person who otherwise prides himself on having good ideas. The agents are incredibly capable of creative thought, and folks who are still stuck in the analysis that agents are parrots- … just regurgitating the ideas that are already there, are delusional about the progress that’s been made in the last six to nine months.
Building Omarchy Linux distro
Lex Fridman
So some people listening to you right now will say DHH is suffering from the old case of AI psychosis. Can you steel man the case that you are in fact experiencing in a state of delusion, like One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, and can you argue against it?
So some people listening to you right now will say DHH is suffering from the old case of AI psychosis. Can you steel man the case that you are in fact experiencing in a state of delusion, like One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, and can you argue against it?
DHH
I’m in a state of delirium. That’s the state I’m in. Because I have been working with computers for 40 years, and I’ve never seen the things that I’ve seen in just the last two months.
I’m in a state of delirium. That’s the state I’m in. Because I have been working with computers for 40 years, and I’ve never seen the things that I’ve seen in just the last two months.
DHH
A whole career, a whole life dedicating to the love of computers as my main focus for the working hours and then some, suddenly completely upended, suddenly completely rewritten. Of course I’m delirious. Who looking at this reality is not? If you are not delirious or at the very least very excited… Actually, I guess that’s not even true. If you’re not recognizing the gravity of the moment, that’s the delusion. That’s the psychosis. The psychosis is believing that the world is barely different. We just have some electronic parrots reciting things to us. Now, in my opinion, the reason this argument is actually brought up is because people are not able to see the fruits of the progress. That goes to your point earlier. Where is the amazing software?
A whole career, a whole life dedicating to the love of computers as my main focus for the working hours and then some, suddenly completely upended, suddenly completely rewritten. Of course I’m delirious. Who looking at this reality is not? If you are not delirious or at the very least very excited… Actually, I guess that’s not even true. If you’re not recognizing the gravity of the moment, that’s the delusion. That’s the psychosis. The psychosis is believing that the world is barely different. We just have some electronic parrots reciting things to us. Now, in my opinion, the reason this argument is actually brought up is because people are not able to see the fruits of the progress. That goes to your point earlier. Where is the amazing software?
DHH
Why isn’t American GDP running at 12% year over year? First of all, give it a minute. It hasn’t even been a year, goddammit. But second of all, I feel on my own account, I have actually brought the pudding. Omarchy Quattro launched on Friday. It’s been downloaded by tens of thousands of people. And they like it. They like it a lot.
Why isn’t American GDP running at 12% year over year? First of all, give it a minute. It hasn’t even been a year, goddammit. But second of all, I feel on my own account, I have actually brought the pudding. Omarchy Quattro launched on Friday. It’s been downloaded by tens of thousands of people. And they like it. They like it a lot.
Lex Fridman
We should mention that going to Perplexity here, Omarchy is a highly opinionated Arch Linux-based desktop distribution centered on the Hyprland Wayland tiling compositor. It was created by David Heinemeier Hansson, DHH, as a polished developer workstation set up with a cohesive visual style and many everyday tools already configured.
We should mention that going to Perplexity here, Omarchy is a highly opinionated Arch Linux-based desktop distribution centered on the Hyprland Wayland tiling compositor. It was created by David Heinemeier Hansson, DHH, as a polished developer workstation set up with a cohesive visual style and many everyday tools already configured.
DHH
Let me put it. Omarchy is a beautiful, modern, and opinionated Linux system. It’s an alternative operating system to macOS and Windows, and it’s freaking amazing.
Let me put it. Omarchy is a beautiful, modern, and opinionated Linux system. It’s an alternative operating system to macOS and Windows, and it’s freaking amazing.
Lex Fridman
And the Quattro thing is you’re pushing towards the age of agents.
And the Quattro thing is you’re pushing towards the age of agents.
DHH
That’s right. That’s the latest version that we just dropped out, which is also funny. The Omarchy project is only a year old and a little bit. I started it last summer in between sessions at the 24 Hours of Le Mans-
That’s right. That’s the latest version that we just dropped out, which is also funny. The Omarchy project is only a year old and a little bit. I started it last summer in between sessions at the 24 Hours of Le Mans-
DHH
… where I had watched one too many YouTube videos on Linux Ricing and got bitten by that bug. Started working on this second iteration of my attempt at creating a better Linux operating system. The first iteration we talked about last time was called Omakub, was built on top of an existing system called Ubuntu, and it was fine. But the ambition I was able to pour into the new version, Omarchy, because I started seven layers deeper down the stack, was completely different. But it was still done in a pre-agentic world. I wrote all those bash scripts by hand in the beginning, and then I got to see the midway point where things changed over.
… where I had watched one too many YouTube videos on Linux Ricing and got bitten by that bug. Started working on this second iteration of my attempt at creating a better Linux operating system. The first iteration we talked about last time was called Omakub, was built on top of an existing system called Ubuntu, and it was fine. But the ambition I was able to pour into the new version, Omarchy, because I started seven layers deeper down the stack, was completely different. But it was still done in a pre-agentic world. I wrote all those bash scripts by hand in the beginning, and then I got to see the midway point where things changed over.
DHH
I did a couple of versions of Omarchy that had partial agent acceleration, and then three months ago, it was full throttle, 100%, everything is written by agents but steered by me. And that just ended up being a very different experience and a very different operating system because I was suddenly granted a limitless ceiling on my ambition. I could look at any feature in Windows, on Mac, on other Linux systems and say, “I want that,” and the agents would deliver. So everything I wanted was suddenly within reach, which meant that I got a little delirious. Who would not get delirious if suddenly a genie pops out of the bottle and says, “You can have whatever you want. Every feature you’ve ever dreamed of in an operating system-
I did a couple of versions of Omarchy that had partial agent acceleration, and then three months ago, it was full throttle, 100%, everything is written by agents but steered by me. And that just ended up being a very different experience and a very different operating system because I was suddenly granted a limitless ceiling on my ambition. I could look at any feature in Windows, on Mac, on other Linux systems and say, “I want that,” and the agents would deliver. So everything I wanted was suddenly within reach, which meant that I got a little delirious. Who would not get delirious if suddenly a genie pops out of the bottle and says, “You can have whatever you want. Every feature you’ve ever dreamed of in an operating system-
DHH
… I can deliver them to you, most of them in five minutes, a few in 20, and if we really go hog wild, it’s gonna take me two hours.”
… I can deliver them to you, most of them in five minutes, a few in 20, and if we really go hog wild, it’s gonna take me two hours.”
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. Have you seen Requiem for a Dream, the movie? So there’s a drug-like effect here. I find it personally– We’ll talk about many levels of this, but it is overwhelming how much power is placed in our hands so suddenly, and it’s very hard to know, it’s like with “The Hobbit” or something, what to do with it, and I find myself truly overwhelmed with the multitasking on the verge of almost burnt out. Super excited about so many things, but ultimately looking back, you want to focus on one thing and really ship.
Mm-hmm. Have you seen Requiem for a Dream, the movie? So there’s a drug-like effect here. I find it personally– We’ll talk about many levels of this, but it is overwhelming how much power is placed in our hands so suddenly, and it’s very hard to know, it’s like with “The Hobbit” or something, what to do with it, and I find myself truly overwhelmed with the multitasking on the verge of almost burnt out. Super excited about so many things, but ultimately looking back, you want to focus on one thing and really ship.
DHH
I don’t have that sense. I don’t have the sense of overwhelm. I don’t have the sense of dread. I don’t have the sense of distortion because I have a mission. I’m going somewhere, and therefore, I can channel all this new power towards-
I don’t have that sense. I don’t have the sense of overwhelm. I don’t have the sense of dread. I don’t have the sense of distortion because I have a mission. I’m going somewhere, and therefore, I can channel all this new power towards-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s wonderful.
Yeah, it’s wonderful.
DHH
a singular goal and outcome, creating the perfect computer. And therefore, all my investigations with AI are focused towards that end. Now, I also have a day job. And we also use agents there, and that’s also targeted towards sort of specific outcomes. But with the Omarchy experience, I got to tap in straight in the back of my head and increase the bandwidth between ideas arriving in my brain and software emerging on the screen. It was like going from dial-up- … to fiber. I think on your podcast, Elon talked about the actual human bandwidth-
a singular goal and outcome, creating the perfect computer. And therefore, all my investigations with AI are focused towards that end. Now, I also have a day job. And we also use agents there, and that’s also targeted towards sort of specific outcomes. But with the Omarchy experience, I got to tap in straight in the back of my head and increase the bandwidth between ideas arriving in my brain and software emerging on the screen. It was like going from dial-up- … to fiber. I think on your podcast, Elon talked about the actual human bandwidth-
DHH
… that Neuralink and other projects are trying to accelerate. Like, the bandwidth we’re communicating over right now is quite low because we’re limited by our cognition. We’re limited by the rate of speech. You’re not limited by those things when you’re working with a swarm of agents. Now, let me caveat this by saying, if I’d heard myself talk like this-
… that Neuralink and other projects are trying to accelerate. Like, the bandwidth we’re communicating over right now is quite low because we’re limited by our cognition. We’re limited by the rate of speech. You’re not limited by those things when you’re working with a swarm of agents. Now, let me caveat this by saying, if I’d heard myself talk like this-
DHH
nine months ago, I would probably have used the label AI psychosis. I think it would be fitting because nine months ago when people were talking like this, they weren’t shipping, and I think that’s the ultimate difference, that there were people who saw this early. I was not actually that early. As we’ve talked about, I was rather skeptical, and I was using AI in certain ways, but I was not the first person who downloaded Claude Code. I think Boris released that in end of February. I don’t think I installed Claude Code until September. So there was about six months there where pioneers saw these glimmers of what the future was gonna look like. It wasn’t there yet because the intelligence wasn’t there. The harnesses weren’t there, but they could see the glimmers. I couldn’t.
nine months ago, I would probably have used the label AI psychosis. I think it would be fitting because nine months ago when people were talking like this, they weren’t shipping, and I think that’s the ultimate difference, that there were people who saw this early. I was not actually that early. As we’ve talked about, I was rather skeptical, and I was using AI in certain ways, but I was not the first person who downloaded Claude Code. I think Boris released that in end of February. I don’t think I installed Claude Code until September. So there was about six months there where pioneers saw these glimmers of what the future was gonna look like. It wasn’t there yet because the intelligence wasn’t there. The harnesses weren’t there, but they could see the glimmers. I couldn’t.
DHH
Tobi, Tobi Lutke, the CEO of Shopify and now my partner in crime on this Omarchy project in part, he’s gotten pilled with Omarchy as well. He saw these things very early, and he tried to tell me, and I wasn’t seeing it. I was not seeing what he was seeing.
Tobi, Tobi Lutke, the CEO of Shopify and now my partner in crime on this Omarchy project in part, he’s gotten pilled with Omarchy as well. He saw these things very early, and he tried to tell me, and I wasn’t seeing it. I was not seeing what he was seeing.
Lex Fridman
You were a hater.
You were a hater.
DHH
Yes. I was still on Earth. And he was… He had already boarded the rocket and was heading towards space. I remember actually reading his memo to the company, the AI memo, and thinking, “Ah, seems a little much.” Like, you’re making a big deal out of something that I cannot yet feel is a tangible thing.
Yes. I was still on Earth. And he was… He had already boarded the rocket and was heading towards space. I remember actually reading his memo to the company, the AI memo, and thinking, “Ah, seems a little much.” Like, you’re making a big deal out of something that I cannot yet feel is a tangible thing.
DHH
Because where’s the output of this? I try using it. It writes code I don’t like. It wants to interrupt me all the time. Where are you getting this from? So I get it. I totally get it. If you’ve not seen what the current quality of intelligence can produce, of course you’re gonna look at someone and go like, “They sound a little nutty,” because all your experience up until this point would tell you that they are nutty. Because if you look at the history of computer programming, for the last 40, 50 years, people have been promising that regular people could write code just by talking. We’re gonna have fourth generation languages.
Because where’s the output of this? I try using it. It writes code I don’t like. It wants to interrupt me all the time. Where are you getting this from? So I get it. I totally get it. If you’ve not seen what the current quality of intelligence can produce, of course you’re gonna look at someone and go like, “They sound a little nutty,” because all your experience up until this point would tell you that they are nutty. Because if you look at the history of computer programming, for the last 40, 50 years, people have been promising that regular people could write code just by talking. We’re gonna have fourth generation languages.
DHH
Lisp was once upon a time presented, Smalltalk was presented as these environments that would let regular people write their own applications, and none of it came true in the sense beyond, like, Microsoft Access databases or Excel spreadsheets. Those are end user programming environments, but it’s nothing like what we’re able to do now. And then, I mean, I’m not even talking about end user. I’m talking as me, someone who’s been programming for 25 years, seeing the output and the acceleration and the quality and then shipping it, and I think that’s what’s gonna change the entire conversation quite quickly.
Lisp was once upon a time presented, Smalltalk was presented as these environments that would let regular people write their own applications, and none of it came true in the sense beyond, like, Microsoft Access databases or Excel spreadsheets. Those are end user programming environments, but it’s nothing like what we’re able to do now. And then, I mean, I’m not even talking about end user. I’m talking as me, someone who’s been programming for 25 years, seeing the output and the acceleration and the quality and then shipping it, and I think that’s what’s gonna change the entire conversation quite quickly.
DHH
The few laggards who are still on the fence about whether this is actually useful, who are still trapped in a meme from early ’25 about mechanical parrots, they’re simply going to be overwhelmed by the evidence that’s about to flood over them.
The few laggards who are still on the fence about whether this is actually useful, who are still trapped in a meme from early ’25 about mechanical parrots, they’re simply going to be overwhelmed by the evidence that’s about to flood over them.
Vibe coding vs agentic engineering
Lex Fridman
So I hope to see projects like Omarchy, several of them that, like, really show agent first.
So I hope to see projects like Omarchy, several of them that, like, really show agent first.
DHH
It’s coming. All of it is coming.
It’s coming. All of it is coming.
Lex Fridman
In the spaces, in the silly spaces that I already mentioned, like video editing, all these kinds of apps that are like Typora- … this kind of stuff.
In the spaces, in the silly spaces that I already mentioned, like video editing, all these kinds of apps that are like Typora- … this kind of stuff.
DHH
It’s gonna come, and I’ve already seen the early inklings of this. One of the really neat features about Omarchy is that it has a far more robust plugin system that allows you to extend your operating system and rewrite it really in terms of its user interface and its panels and its features by creating your own plugins that can be cloned off of tools we ship in the box. For example, say you want a different calendar. Omarchy ships with a calendar. You click the little clock. It pops up a calendar, and it doesn’t have iCal support, for example. It doesn’t consume your appointments. There’s about 17 implementations of that already, and in three days, we had 330 plugins on the Omarchy plugin marketplace. I have never seen growth like that with any project I’ve ever been involved in.
It’s gonna come, and I’ve already seen the early inklings of this. One of the really neat features about Omarchy is that it has a far more robust plugin system that allows you to extend your operating system and rewrite it really in terms of its user interface and its panels and its features by creating your own plugins that can be cloned off of tools we ship in the box. For example, say you want a different calendar. Omarchy ships with a calendar. You click the little clock. It pops up a calendar, and it doesn’t have iCal support, for example. It doesn’t consume your appointments. There’s about 17 implementations of that already, and in three days, we had 330 plugins on the Omarchy plugin marketplace. I have never seen growth like that with any project I’ve ever been involved in.
DHH
I’ve never seen participation that broadly. I’ve never seen that many people be able to create software that’s meaningful for them—also be usable for others so quickly. All of it is driven by the fact that Omarchy ships a set of skills that tells any agent you bring to it how to create extensions to the operating system, and therefore affording you the vision of the true malleable… I was about to say agentic. I hate that fucking word. And the reason in part I hate that word is, first of all, it’s become marketing slop speak- … at this point. Like, it’s just slapped onto everything. I wish we had a different word that just meant AI doing stuff.
I’ve never seen participation that broadly. I’ve never seen that many people be able to create software that’s meaningful for them—also be usable for others so quickly. All of it is driven by the fact that Omarchy ships a set of skills that tells any agent you bring to it how to create extensions to the operating system, and therefore affording you the vision of the true malleable… I was about to say agentic. I hate that fucking word. And the reason in part I hate that word is, first of all, it’s become marketing slop speak- … at this point. Like, it’s just slapped onto everything. I wish we had a different word that just meant AI doing stuff.
Lex Fridman
Vibe coding feels wrong, too.
Vibe coding feels wrong, too.
DHH
It does, because vibe coding to me smells exactly like script kiddies did in the early 2000s. People applying PHP scripts they just downloaded offline that they don’t understand anything of. And while, I mean, that’s true in the sense that much of the vibe coding, including my own vibe coded projects, and as I just mentioned, I have several. I’ve written things in C++. I’ve written things in Rust. Rust—I hate Rust with a passion. Rust to me is like pouring acid in my eyes when I have to look at the code.
It does, because vibe coding to me smells exactly like script kiddies did in the early 2000s. People applying PHP scripts they just downloaded offline that they don’t understand anything of. And while, I mean, that’s true in the sense that much of the vibe coding, including my own vibe coded projects, and as I just mentioned, I have several. I’ve written things in C++. I’ve written things in Rust. Rust—I hate Rust with a passion. Rust to me is like pouring acid in my eyes when I have to look at the code.
Lex Fridman
Wait, wait, wait, wait. Why do you hate Rust?
Wait, wait, wait, wait. Why do you hate Rust?
DHH
It is, in my opinion, the ugliest programming language-
It is, in my opinion, the ugliest programming language-
Lex Fridman
Oh
Oh
DHH
… that has been invented-
… that has been invented-
Lex Fridman
Yeah
Yeah
DHH
… in probably the last 40 years.
… in probably the last 40 years.
Lex Fridman
So it’s the opposite of Rails and Ruby.
So it’s the opposite of Rails and Ruby.
DHH
It’s the opposite. But-
It’s the opposite. But-
Lex Fridman
You’ve written it
You’ve written it
DHH
… I’ve written applications in Rust because the output of Rust is actually amazing. The memory safety, the fact that it’s a system language, the fact that it’s highly efficient and so forth is incredible. So Rust, to me, can both be the most repugnant programming language ever devised for human consumption and a wonderful platform for agentic engineering. These two truths can coexist easily in my head.
… I’ve written applications in Rust because the output of Rust is actually amazing. The memory safety, the fact that it’s a system language, the fact that it’s highly efficient and so forth is incredible. So Rust, to me, can both be the most repugnant programming language ever devised for human consumption and a wonderful platform for agentic engineering. These two truths can coexist easily in my head.
Lex Fridman
Do you think that there can be a point at which we can just call agentic engineering programming? Can we just change what programming means? ‘Cause who’s actually going to be programming the old-school way in a few months?
Do you think that there can be a point at which we can just call agentic engineering programming? Can we just change what programming means? ‘Cause who’s actually going to be programming the old-school way in a few months?
DHH
I don’t think we should reuse the term because for me, programming implies an understanding of certain primitives, loops, conditions, variables. All the constructs of programming languages are what constitutes programming itself, not the creation of programs. Because you could say in the pre-agentic era, well, your CEO is programming. He’s hiring a bunch of programmers, he’s telling them what to do, and out comes software that he can sell.
I don’t think we should reuse the term because for me, programming implies an understanding of certain primitives, loops, conditions, variables. All the constructs of programming languages are what constitutes programming itself, not the creation of programs. Because you could say in the pre-agentic era, well, your CEO is programming. He’s hiring a bunch of programmers, he’s telling them what to do, and out comes software that he can sell.
DHH
Eh, I don’t think most people would call that CEO a programmer, and I don’t think we should call the vibe coder a programmer either. And vibe coding, if we define it here, is you tell an agent to build software for you. You do not look at the implementation. That, to me, is what separates vibe coding from programming or, let’s say, agent-accelerated development.
Eh, I don’t think most people would call that CEO a programmer, and I don’t think we should call the vibe coder a programmer either. And vibe coding, if we define it here, is you tell an agent to build software for you. You do not look at the implementation. That, to me, is what separates vibe coding from programming or, let’s say, agent-accelerated development.
Lex Fridman
But don’t you think, so to push back a little bit, don’t you think a programmer, old-school programmer, you, doing agentic engineering is a different kind of agentic engineering than a non-programmer doing agentic engineering? What I mean is, if you know what a for loop is, if you know what function programming is, if you know some of the basic good principles of software engineering, the way you do natural language-based agentic engineering will be different and more systematic, and the scale and the variety of things you can actually build is much bigger than a vibe coder.
But don’t you think, so to push back a little bit, don’t you think a programmer, old-school programmer, you, doing agentic engineering is a different kind of agentic engineering than a non-programmer doing agentic engineering? What I mean is, if you know what a for loop is, if you know what function programming is, if you know some of the basic good principles of software engineering, the way you do natural language-based agentic engineering will be different and more systematic, and the scale and the variety of things you can actually build is much bigger than a vibe coder.
DHH
I’m just gonna extend the pro case here a little bit just for the sake of the argument.
I’m just gonna extend the pro case here a little bit just for the sake of the argument.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
DHH
I actually think for a while it was to my deficit to know as much as I know about programming because I was instructing the agents to do things as I prescribed them to do, and they were very good at that. And in the first agentic moment, let’s not call it an era, it was something that lasted three, three months. Moment… In the first agentic moment, that felt very productive. I could get more productivity out of telling the agents what to do in the way I would’ve done it, and I used all of my experience as a programmer to do just that. Then I was a little late on the next moment, and the next moment allowed me, allowed anyone, to describe outcomes- … to describe problems to the agents and get better solutions than if you had a programmer prescribe the path.
I actually think for a while it was to my deficit to know as much as I know about programming because I was instructing the agents to do things as I prescribed them to do, and they were very good at that. And in the first agentic moment, let’s not call it an era, it was something that lasted three, three months. Moment… In the first agentic moment, that felt very productive. I could get more productivity out of telling the agents what to do in the way I would’ve done it, and I used all of my experience as a programmer to do just that. Then I was a little late on the next moment, and the next moment allowed me, allowed anyone, to describe outcomes- … to describe problems to the agents and get better solutions than if you had a programmer prescribe the path.
Lex Fridman
See, okay, so we’re having fun arguing here. Well, so are you suggesting that there’s problems for which programmers are worse than non-programmers at agentic engineering?
See, okay, so we’re having fun arguing here. Well, so are you suggesting that there’s problems for which programmers are worse than non-programmers at agentic engineering?
DHH
100%. And the reason I say that, let’s define it here. The reason I say that is there’s a lot of programmers who are not very good product managers. Software is product management. What should it do? Who should it do it for? How should it do it? How should it look? What’s our priorities? What do we start with first? What does version one include? All of those skills are not easily or equally distributed across all programmers. And in the agentic era where you are letting an agent, an AI, do the implementation, these are the skills you need. And I happen to sit in both camps, and this is why I love this moment.
100%. And the reason I say that, let’s define it here. The reason I say that is there’s a lot of programmers who are not very good product managers. Software is product management. What should it do? Who should it do it for? How should it do it? How should it look? What’s our priorities? What do we start with first? What does version one include? All of those skills are not easily or equally distributed across all programmers. And in the agentic era where you are letting an agent, an AI, do the implementation, these are the skills you need. And I happen to sit in both camps, and this is why I love this moment.
DHH
I still get to live a little bit in the old world where I look at the full implementation because there are domains and areas where I feel that still brings value, and then I also live in the future. And as I said, when I created AmaWrite, I’ve not looked at a single line of that C++. I actually made it a point to myself that I was gonna treat it as an experiment. This is 100% a black box. I will treat it as though I was any other user who had opinions about how their digital typewriter should work, and therefore felt like it was a fair experiment as if a writer of any other sort who had opinions about how software should be done and how it should work.
I still get to live a little bit in the old world where I look at the full implementation because there are domains and areas where I feel that still brings value, and then I also live in the future. And as I said, when I created AmaWrite, I’ve not looked at a single line of that C++. I actually made it a point to myself that I was gonna treat it as an experiment. This is 100% a black box. I will treat it as though I was any other user who had opinions about how their digital typewriter should work, and therefore felt like it was a fair experiment as if a writer of any other sort who had opinions about how software should be done and how it should work.
DHH
As you mentioned, video editors who know exactly where they don’t like what Adobe Premiere’s doing and how it could be better, but don’t have the capacities to improve it- … how that could be.
As you mentioned, video editors who know exactly where they don’t like what Adobe Premiere’s doing and how it could be better, but don’t have the capacities to improve it- … how that could be.
Lex Fridman
The pushback, though, I think what programmers do well, good programmers do well, is systematic design, like think in terms of systems- … and rigor. And I think still, and probably for a long time to come, even natural language-based control of agentic systems will require a certain kind of rigor. Not overly structured rigor, but really explain very specifically the goals of the system, how to do the verification, what kind of security testing. You wanna do all those kinds of things. Although then to push back on that, the system will… should be smart longer term.
The pushback, though, I think what programmers do well, good programmers do well, is systematic design, like think in terms of systems- … and rigor. And I think still, and probably for a long time to come, even natural language-based control of agentic systems will require a certain kind of rigor. Not overly structured rigor, but really explain very specifically the goals of the system, how to do the verification, what kind of security testing. You wanna do all those kinds of things. Although then to push back on that, the system will… should be smart longer term.
DHH
I would’ve said the same thing six months ago.
I would’ve said the same thing six months ago.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, so this has changed.
Yeah, so this has changed.
DHH
And I think the same thing would’ve been true six months ago. What I have found since, especially even just the last few weeks of the agentically accelerated development of Mach-E, is that more often than not, I have the humility to recognize that the agent knows best.
And I think the same thing would’ve been true six months ago. What I have found since, especially even just the last few weeks of the agentically accelerated development of Mach-E, is that more often than not, I have the humility to recognize that the agent knows best.
Lex Fridman
You can legitimately say, “Make sure it’s secure.”
You can legitimately say, “Make sure it’s secure.”
DHH
Correct. And it would know more about what that entails. Now, you’re laughing-
Correct. And it would know more about what that entails. Now, you’re laughing-
Lex Fridman
What a crazy world.
What a crazy world.
DHH
… but it’s true. And in fact-
… but it’s true. And in fact-
Lex Fridman
Oh my God.
Oh my God.
DHH
… a good parallel to this is the AGENTS.md/CLAUDE.md files. There was a hot moment where it was all the rage about micro-optimizing that. Oh, you tell your agent this-
… a good parallel to this is the AGENTS.md/CLAUDE.md files. There was a hot moment where it was all the rage about micro-optimizing that. Oh, you tell your agent this-
DHH
… you tell your agent that, and you ended up with this huge file of instructions for your agent. One of the things that Boris, working on Claude Code, shared in an interview recently about Opus 5 was that the system prompt that they ship for Opus 5, and presumably also Fable, shrunk by 80% because the agent not only needed far less human instruction, it was actually being damaged by overly prescriptive humans. And any programmer who’s had a pointy-haired boss knows exactly what that is like. When the boss walks into the room, doesn’t know anything, starts telling you how to program, how to code. What do you do? You sulk. You write shittier code if you’re mandated to do things that are against your better judgment. Why would an agent not be the same?
… you tell your agent that, and you ended up with this huge file of instructions for your agent. One of the things that Boris, working on Claude Code, shared in an interview recently about Opus 5 was that the system prompt that they ship for Opus 5, and presumably also Fable, shrunk by 80% because the agent not only needed far less human instruction, it was actually being damaged by overly prescriptive humans. And any programmer who’s had a pointy-haired boss knows exactly what that is like. When the boss walks into the room, doesn’t know anything, starts telling you how to program, how to code. What do you do? You sulk. You write shittier code if you’re mandated to do things that are against your better judgment. Why would an agent not be the same?
Lex Fridman
Actually, to push back against myself, I do find the actual skill I’m currently developing, which along those lines is probably what everybody’s trying to develop, is not to overspecify things, is to get out of the system’s way.
Actually, to push back against myself, I do find the actual skill I’m currently developing, which along those lines is probably what everybody’s trying to develop, is not to overspecify things, is to get out of the system’s way.
DHH
Of course.
Of course.
Lex Fridman
Is to specify enough to provide a kinda high-level vision and guidance.
Is to specify enough to provide a kinda high-level vision and guidance.
DHH
It’s even better because you don’t even need that. The fundamental insight of modern software development came from the agile software development movement. In the late ’90s, early 2000s, a group of smart, honest, and brave people came together and said, “The way we’ve been trying to do software development for the last 40 to 50 years has not worked, will not work. We’ve been trying to specify upfront what software should look like. We thought that we could ask humans what they wanted, write it all down, apply our systems thinking and our rigor to a spec sheet, hand that spec sheet over to a group of programmers who would then implement just that, and everyone would be happy.” Well, guess what? No one was happy. Because no one knows what they want until they receive it.
It’s even better because you don’t even need that. The fundamental insight of modern software development came from the agile software development movement. In the late ’90s, early 2000s, a group of smart, honest, and brave people came together and said, “The way we’ve been trying to do software development for the last 40 to 50 years has not worked, will not work. We’ve been trying to specify upfront what software should look like. We thought that we could ask humans what they wanted, write it all down, apply our systems thinking and our rigor to a spec sheet, hand that spec sheet over to a group of programmers who would then implement just that, and everyone would be happy.” Well, guess what? No one was happy. Because no one knows what they want until they receive it.
DHH
You don’t know what a program should do until you play with it. So in the agentic age, you should resist the temptation to be overly specific upfront. Be as vague as you can to manifest something, then interact with the something. The way you arrive at good software is you write a little bit of software, and then you try to use it. It is in the process of using software that you discover what you really want. It’s where you discover what’s important and what’s not important. And agents are incredible at allowing you to bumble into this experience of realizing what you want because you don’t know what you want.
You don’t know what a program should do until you play with it. So in the agentic age, you should resist the temptation to be overly specific upfront. Be as vague as you can to manifest something, then interact with the something. The way you arrive at good software is you write a little bit of software, and then you try to use it. It is in the process of using software that you discover what you really want. It’s where you discover what’s important and what’s not important. And agents are incredible at allowing you to bumble into this experience of realizing what you want because you don’t know what you want.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. And I’ve actually done something similar to what you suggested, which is implement different designs and totally different implementations, and then I create HTML pages for myself, PHP pages, where I vote on what I like more and so on.
Mm-hmm. And I’ve actually done something similar to what you suggested, which is implement different designs and totally different implementations, and then I create HTML pages for myself, PHP pages, where I vote on what I like more and so on.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And it does this iterative thing, and it’s very nice and fun. The interaction with the agentic system, if you create a nice interface for yourself, it can be super fun, and you’re focusing on the design part and the most fun parts of the design part.
And it does this iterative thing, and it’s very nice and fun. The interaction with the agentic system, if you create a nice interface for yourself, it can be super fun, and you’re focusing on the design part and the most fun parts of the design part.
DHH
Correct. And this is what humans are really good at.
Correct. And this is what humans are really good at.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, taste.
Yeah, taste.
DHH
Differential evaluation. You give me three options, I pick one of them. Now, humans actually fall off a cliff if you give them 22 options. That’s the paradox of choice. But you give them three options, they very quickly within a split second will tell you what they like. There are all these ways that exploit the fact that humans will make these snap judgments that are actually pre-intellectual, right? Like, they’re coming from the gut, and then they arrive up in the brain, and the brain tries to rationalize why the gut said what it said. And if you’re willing to let go of some of that intellectual pre-processing rationalization and simply let your gut drive, the agentic age is a revelation.
Differential evaluation. You give me three options, I pick one of them. Now, humans actually fall off a cliff if you give them 22 options. That’s the paradox of choice. But you give them three options, they very quickly within a split second will tell you what they like. There are all these ways that exploit the fact that humans will make these snap judgments that are actually pre-intellectual, right? Like, they’re coming from the gut, and then they arrive up in the brain, and the brain tries to rationalize why the gut said what it said. And if you’re willing to let go of some of that intellectual pre-processing rationalization and simply let your gut drive, the agentic age is a revelation.
The end of manual programming
Lex Fridman
So this is a fascinating thing to ask you because you have sort of famously for a long time talked about, like, detailed chiseling of beautiful Rails Ruby code, and now you have switched in a matter of months to not doing that. So, like, what is your current setup look like? ‘Cause you’re, I assume, are still looking for the beauty, for the chiseling, for the crafting, but you’re just crafting in a different medium.
So this is a fascinating thing to ask you because you have sort of famously for a long time talked about, like, detailed chiseling of beautiful Rails Ruby code, and now you have switched in a matter of months to not doing that. So, like, what is your current setup look like? ‘Cause you’re, I assume, are still looking for the beauty, for the chiseling, for the crafting, but you’re just crafting in a different medium.
DHH
And at different levels of abstraction. When I’m working in Ruby code, and we have a lot of Ruby code because it’s in our entire business, and I’m asking agents to make changes to that code, I still sweat the details. What I’m coming to realize is that the economic payoff of that sweat is diminishing rapidly. The reason why I, for 25 years, was sweating every line of code so judiciously was because I knew the payoff of keeping an architecture coherent and malleable was software that could change and evolve-
And at different levels of abstraction. When I’m working in Ruby code, and we have a lot of Ruby code because it’s in our entire business, and I’m asking agents to make changes to that code, I still sweat the details. What I’m coming to realize is that the economic payoff of that sweat is diminishing rapidly. The reason why I, for 25 years, was sweating every line of code so judiciously was because I knew the payoff of keeping an architecture coherent and malleable was software that could change and evolve-
DHH
… quickly with a small team, and not exorbitant cost, and not introducing a bunch of bugs when you change one thing over the other. That was the driving economic argument for why you should write beautiful code, ’cause beautiful code is easier to understand, it is simpler, it is more malleable. That was premised on humans doing the modifications. I think it is an open question to which degree this still matters. Now, it does matter, and the reason I say that, at least for the moment, is that tokens are still scarce. At this moment in time, we are all token limited. Well, not all, but anyone who doesn’t have endless budgets are token limited.
… quickly with a small team, and not exorbitant cost, and not introducing a bunch of bugs when you change one thing over the other. That was the driving economic argument for why you should write beautiful code, ’cause beautiful code is easier to understand, it is simpler, it is more malleable. That was premised on humans doing the modifications. I think it is an open question to which degree this still matters. Now, it does matter, and the reason I say that, at least for the moment, is that tokens are still scarce. At this moment in time, we are all token limited. Well, not all, but anyone who doesn’t have endless budgets are token limited.
DHH
So therefore, there is great payoff to writing systems that agents have an easier time dealing with and evolving without having to relearn the entire context. Just like humans, if they can make iterations and changes to the code base without wrecking the architecture, they can make the next change just as cheaply as the last one. And this is the classic ball of mud where you end up with a system that’s a ball of mud-
So therefore, there is great payoff to writing systems that agents have an easier time dealing with and evolving without having to relearn the entire context. Just like humans, if they can make iterations and changes to the code base without wrecking the architecture, they can make the next change just as cheaply as the last one. And this is the classic ball of mud where you end up with a system that’s a ball of mud-
DHH
… because it’s just put together in a way where nothing is connected and it’s just a real mess, right? I’ve seen that with agents, and I’ve seen it in our own code bases where, again, the first PR is, like, mediocre of quality, and then if you add another PR on top of that, and then five more down the line, it’s not very good, right? So there’s still a payoff to that, but that payoff is premised on our current moment. I am now able to… And this is, by the way, where the AI psychosis really comes in, when you try to extrapolate what nine months from now it’s gonna look like. What two years from now it’s gonna look like. But as an intellectual experiment, I think the first computer I used was a Commodore 64.
… because it’s just put together in a way where nothing is connected and it’s just a real mess, right? I’ve seen that with agents, and I’ve seen it in our own code bases where, again, the first PR is, like, mediocre of quality, and then if you add another PR on top of that, and then five more down the line, it’s not very good, right? So there’s still a payoff to that, but that payoff is premised on our current moment. I am now able to… And this is, by the way, where the AI psychosis really comes in, when you try to extrapolate what nine months from now it’s gonna look like. What two years from now it’s gonna look like. But as an intellectual experiment, I think the first computer I used was a Commodore 64.
Lex Fridman
Me too. Cool.
Me too. Cool.
DHH
It had one megahertz CPU and 64K of memory. Everyone who wrote software for that machine internalized certain constraints. Well, all the constraints. That machine was nothing but constraints. If you put that programmer in a time machine and teleported him or her to 2026 and gave them a modern computer today and said, “Now write me a piece of software,” they’d be lost for a little bit because all their techniques and all their heuristics would simply be wrong. Or not wrong, because efficient software is still beautiful. They would be out of date with the value that they could create. The amount of optimization you have to apply for a one megahertz computer to produce a video game is just very different from what you have to apply today.
It had one megahertz CPU and 64K of memory. Everyone who wrote software for that machine internalized certain constraints. Well, all the constraints. That machine was nothing but constraints. If you put that programmer in a time machine and teleported him or her to 2026 and gave them a modern computer today and said, “Now write me a piece of software,” they’d be lost for a little bit because all their techniques and all their heuristics would simply be wrong. Or not wrong, because efficient software is still beautiful. They would be out of date with the value that they could create. The amount of optimization you have to apply for a one megahertz computer to produce a video game is just very different from what you have to apply today.
Lex Fridman
Just imagine that guy that was programming back then on a Commodore. Just remember, remember all those, like what programming felt like and what it meant, highly constrained resources- … how slow everything is.
Just imagine that guy that was programming back then on a Commodore. Just remember, remember all those, like what programming felt like and what it meant, highly constrained resources- … how slow everything is.
DHH
Beautiful in many ways. Beautiful.
Beautiful in many ways. Beautiful.
Lex Fridman
It’s chiseling. But-
It’s chiseling. But-
DHH
It-
It-
Lex Fridman
… imagine that person coming now.
… imagine that person coming now.
DHH
It’s romantic too, though. Let’s also imagine that. This is one of the things, whenever we bemoan modern car culture, for example, right? And then we think like, “Oh, wasn’t it better when we all had the horse-drawn carriages and so on?” No, it wasn’t. Do you know what New York smelled like when we used horses for transportation? It was an open sewer. They just shat everywhere.
It’s romantic too, though. Let’s also imagine that. This is one of the things, whenever we bemoan modern car culture, for example, right? And then we think like, “Oh, wasn’t it better when we all had the horse-drawn carriages and so on?” No, it wasn’t. Do you know what New York smelled like when we used horses for transportation? It was an open sewer. They just shat everywhere.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but have you played Red Dead Redemption? You know how cool those cowboys were-
Yeah, but have you played Red Dead Redemption? You know how cool those cowboys were-
DHH
That is the way-
That is the way-
Lex Fridman
… on the horse?
… on the horse?
DHH
… to experience the nostalgic past, when you don’t get all the furry impulses and senses.
… to experience the nostalgic past, when you don’t get all the furry impulses and senses.
Lex Fridman
So basically programming, old school programming by hand is kinda like the cowboy culture that we romanticize and make movies about.
So basically programming, old school programming by hand is kinda like the cowboy culture that we romanticize and make movies about.
DHH
It’s already happening, the romanticization of handwritten code. And I have some of it because it was a very romantic era. I’m grateful to have been alive for 20 years of economically valuable handwritten code. That was a, that was a good time.
It’s already happening, the romanticization of handwritten code. And I have some of it because it was a very romantic era. I’m grateful to have been alive for 20 years of economically valuable handwritten code. That was a, that was a good time.
Lex Fridman
Where handwritten beautiful code was also valuable.
Where handwritten beautiful code was also valuable.
DHH
Correct. Because handwritten beautiful code exists as much today as it did yesterday. There are people who willfully write new video games for the Commodore 64, or for the Sega Mega Drive, or for other vintage consoles. In fact, one of my favorite video games of late is ModRetro’s. Do you know Palmer Luckey’s- … side geschäft, which is recreating old consoles. So he’s recreated the Game Boy.
Correct. Because handwritten beautiful code exists as much today as it did yesterday. There are people who willfully write new video games for the Commodore 64, or for the Sega Mega Drive, or for other vintage consoles. In fact, one of my favorite video games of late is ModRetro’s. Do you know Palmer Luckey’s- … side geschäft, which is recreating old consoles. So he’s recreated the Game Boy.
Lex Fridman
Nice.
Nice.
DHH
It’s amazing. Look it up. It’s really cool. But what’s even cooler than the fact that he recreated this hardware and the original chunkiness, but brought it up to date with sort of modern screens and so on, now they just put out the Nintendo 64 too. Incredible. Super cool. Wild attention to detail, input lag, and all the other things. But what’s also very cool, that one, I have to wave. That one right there, and hover over it, ’cause then you get to see what I’m talking about. That is the Chromatic-
It’s amazing. Look it up. It’s really cool. But what’s even cooler than the fact that he recreated this hardware and the original chunkiness, but brought it up to date with sort of modern screens and so on, now they just put out the Nintendo 64 too. Incredible. Super cool. Wild attention to detail, input lag, and all the other things. But what’s also very cool, that one, I have to wave. That one right there, and hover over it, ’cause then you get to see what I’m talking about. That is the Chromatic-
Lex Fridman
Ah
Ah
DHH
… Tetris re-implementation.
… Tetris re-implementation.
Lex Fridman
Wow.
Wow.
DHH
I played a lot of Tetris on the original Game Boy. Probably one of my top three favorite games of all time. And they rewrote it with one change. If you hit up, the brick slams. And that speeds up the game by about 400%. It is an incredible game, and it’s a new Game Boy game.
I played a lot of Tetris on the original Game Boy. Probably one of my top three favorite games of all time. And they rewrote it with one change. If you hit up, the brick slams. And that speeds up the game by about 400%. It is an incredible game, and it’s a new Game Boy game.
DHH
I think the Game Boy came out in ’89 or ’88. It’s a very old machine. The fact that there’s still people writing new old games is awesome, and the reason they do it in part, now here they’re doing it because they want Tetris, but there are people who do it just for the love of the constraints, for the love of the romantic notion of writing that. Just like there are people still riding around on horses, not to get places fast, but because they like the mode of transportation where it’s a literal biological being below you propelling you forward.
I think the Game Boy came out in ’89 or ’88. It’s a very old machine. The fact that there’s still people writing new old games is awesome, and the reason they do it in part, now here they’re doing it because they want Tetris, but there are people who do it just for the love of the constraints, for the love of the romantic notion of writing that. Just like there are people still riding around on horses, not to get places fast, but because they like the mode of transportation where it’s a literal biological being below you propelling you forward.
Lex Fridman
And also, we should say that that beautiful code is great training data. So in some sense, the beauty that we’ve built over a few decades-
And also, we should say that that beautiful code is great training data. So in some sense, the beauty that we’ve built over a few decades-
DHH
Yes
Yes
Lex Fridman
… continues.
… continues.
DHH
We gave birth to this moment. What a privilege, and I feel that very personally because I… Almost all of the code I’ve ever written is public code. The vast majority of my career has been dedicated to writing open source code, and therefore, some of that code, some of those beautiful lines are in the training set. And in fact, I’ve heard people do this when they write Ruby code. They ask the agent, “Write it like DHH would.”
We gave birth to this moment. What a privilege, and I feel that very personally because I… Almost all of the code I’ve ever written is public code. The vast majority of my career has been dedicated to writing open source code, and therefore, some of that code, some of those beautiful lines are in the training set. And in fact, I’ve heard people do this when they write Ruby code. They ask the agent, “Write it like DHH would.”
DHH
And they’re pleased with the result, and that does warm my heart a little bit, that I helped give birth to this moment in my tiny little small part. And anyone else who contributed open source code or any code at all that the agents have had access to over the last, well, entire time programming has been around as a discipline, is now part of these new agent overlords.
And they’re pleased with the result, and that does warm my heart a little bit, that I helped give birth to this moment in my tiny little small part. And anyone else who contributed open source code or any code at all that the agents have had access to over the last, well, entire time programming has been around as a discipline, is now part of these new agent overlords.
Lex Fridman
So you don’t have a little bit of sadness that writing beautiful code by hand is now less and less useful?
So you don’t have a little bit of sadness that writing beautiful code by hand is now less and less useful?
DHH
Am I sad that if I had to get a job tomorrow, it’s unlikely that I could apply my skills in such a way that I would be paid to write these manual lines of code? No. I did it for 25 years. Like, I wanna see something new here, especially if we’re all gonna live forever, which I hope we don’t. Maybe we’ll get to that. But, like, I’ve done that. That’s enough. That’s fine. I don’t feel any more nostalgic about that than I do about the fact that I don’t have to spend my time in the field with a hoe or at the assembly line.
Am I sad that if I had to get a job tomorrow, it’s unlikely that I could apply my skills in such a way that I would be paid to write these manual lines of code? No. I did it for 25 years. Like, I wanna see something new here, especially if we’re all gonna live forever, which I hope we don’t. Maybe we’ll get to that. But, like, I’ve done that. That’s enough. That’s fine. I don’t feel any more nostalgic about that than I do about the fact that I don’t have to spend my time in the field with a hoe or at the assembly line.
Lex Fridman
Well, hold on a second. You are one of the best programmers in the world at writing handcrafted beautiful code, appreciators of beauty with great taste.
Well, hold on a second. You are one of the best programmers in the world at writing handcrafted beautiful code, appreciators of beauty with great taste.
DHH
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
That has been replaced.
That has been replaced.
DHH
I say humbly.
I say humbly.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. That has been replaced. Like, you have now… You’re just fast evolving, and you’re able to… One of your really great qualities is you’re able to change your mind and evolve very quickly. But, like, you had to kill that other person.
Yeah. That has been replaced. Like, you have now… You’re just fast evolving, and you’re able to… One of your really great qualities is you’re able to change your mind and evolve very quickly. But, like, you had to kill that other person.
DHH
I am grateful for every moment that brought me to where I am right now, and therefore, I have also tried, and maybe this did take some practice. I will concede that. Maybe I wasn’t always like this, but stoic philosophy, amor fati, loving your fate, is an incredibly liberating way to live. And you could attack that and say, “Well, that’s a point of privilege.” True, but also I had the same directional point when I didn’t have all this, quote unquote, “privilege.” So I think there’s a way to live and interact with the world where you accept the things you can change and the things you cannot change and fall in love with all of it. Fall in love with the fact that the world today has jumped two decades forward into technology industry from where it was last year.
I am grateful for every moment that brought me to where I am right now, and therefore, I have also tried, and maybe this did take some practice. I will concede that. Maybe I wasn’t always like this, but stoic philosophy, amor fati, loving your fate, is an incredibly liberating way to live. And you could attack that and say, “Well, that’s a point of privilege.” True, but also I had the same directional point when I didn’t have all this, quote unquote, “privilege.” So I think there’s a way to live and interact with the world where you accept the things you can change and the things you cannot change and fall in love with all of it. Fall in love with the fact that the world today has jumped two decades forward into technology industry from where it was last year.
Advice for programmers
Lex Fridman
So can we talk about the general anxiety that programmers feel going through the same transformation? They’ve maybe gone to university, majored in computer science, dreamed of being programmers and building stuff, high salary, and now everything’s changing, and there’s deep anxiety about, “What do I do when… with my life?” Can you empathize with that, and what the hell are they supposed to do?
So can we talk about the general anxiety that programmers feel going through the same transformation? They’ve maybe gone to university, majored in computer science, dreamed of being programmers and building stuff, high salary, and now everything’s changing, and there’s deep anxiety about, “What do I do when… with my life?” Can you empathize with that, and what the hell are they supposed to do?
DHH
Hugely. Because just because I have this disposition, I’m keenly aware that that’s not evenly distributed, that not everyone sits with this position and this optimism for the future. But I do think I wanna separate things a little bit. I think you’re gonna have a hard time coping with the new reality if the only thing you loved about programming was the mechanical bits of putting the right logical constructs together to produce something other people told you to produce. Because that mechanical process is under threat. If you are, as you just mentioned, excited about building things, I don’t think you’re under threat at all. In fact, I think there’s a great argument for us needing far more builders than what we have now, and if you look at the employment stats, it’s fuzzy.
Hugely. Because just because I have this disposition, I’m keenly aware that that’s not evenly distributed, that not everyone sits with this position and this optimism for the future. But I do think I wanna separate things a little bit. I think you’re gonna have a hard time coping with the new reality if the only thing you loved about programming was the mechanical bits of putting the right logical constructs together to produce something other people told you to produce. Because that mechanical process is under threat. If you are, as you just mentioned, excited about building things, I don’t think you’re under threat at all. In fact, I think there’s a great argument for us needing far more builders than what we have now, and if you look at the employment stats, it’s fuzzy.
DHH
It’s not clear what’s gonna happen at all. Some stats actually show an increase in openings because the advent of AI is so dramatically lowering the price of programs that people want a lot more programs. This is the classic, the Jevons paradox, that says when the price of something goes down, there’s gonna be more demand for it. And this is the example of the ATMs too. When the ATM originally came, a lot of bank tellers were very afraid for their job because suddenly there was a machine that could dispense money from people’s account. Well, what the ATMs did was lower the price of a branch, and suddenly banks could afford to open a lot more branches, and we ended up with more bank tellers than we did before. Now, none of this is guaranteed. There are also moments where things do change.
It’s not clear what’s gonna happen at all. Some stats actually show an increase in openings because the advent of AI is so dramatically lowering the price of programs that people want a lot more programs. This is the classic, the Jevons paradox, that says when the price of something goes down, there’s gonna be more demand for it. And this is the example of the ATMs too. When the ATM originally came, a lot of bank tellers were very afraid for their job because suddenly there was a machine that could dispense money from people’s account. Well, what the ATMs did was lower the price of a branch, and suddenly banks could afford to open a lot more branches, and we ended up with more bank tellers than we did before. Now, none of this is guaranteed. There are also moments where things do change.
DHH
The vast majority of people worked in the fields up until the late 1800s, and then suddenly we got mechanized harvesting tools, and we did not need human labor with a hoe and an ox out there. We had mechanical tools to do that for us. In that moment, are there people who were threatened that their job and their livelihood was at stake? Yes. Was that a reasonable thing to feel threatened about? Yes. The Luddites smashing the weaving machines-
The vast majority of people worked in the fields up until the late 1800s, and then suddenly we got mechanized harvesting tools, and we did not need human labor with a hoe and an ox out there. We had mechanical tools to do that for us. In that moment, are there people who were threatened that their job and their livelihood was at stake? Yes. Was that a reasonable thing to feel threatened about? Yes. The Luddites smashing the weaving machines-
DHH
… in England had the same thing. And I think maybe that’s the better parallel than people working the fields, because these were actually highly skilled professionals doing a job that they liked on rather favorable conditions, not slaving outside in the sun all day. But where we live now, would we still like for clothing to be this heavily constrained resource? Like, what if this T-shirt was $400? I mean, okay, then I’d have two. Well, my wardrobe probably looks like I have two. But I think the general progress of mankind depends on productivity improvements. And what are productivity improvements? This is very important, because in the abstract, I think everyone says, “Yay, productivity. That’s good.” What did you think, this was all just vibes? No.
… in England had the same thing. And I think maybe that’s the better parallel than people working the fields, because these were actually highly skilled professionals doing a job that they liked on rather favorable conditions, not slaving outside in the sun all day. But where we live now, would we still like for clothing to be this heavily constrained resource? Like, what if this T-shirt was $400? I mean, okay, then I’d have two. Well, my wardrobe probably looks like I have two. But I think the general progress of mankind depends on productivity improvements. And what are productivity improvements? This is very important, because in the abstract, I think everyone says, “Yay, productivity. That’s good.” What did you think, this was all just vibes? No.
DHH
Productivity means fewer people to do the same number or the same job. Now, the amount of job you want done may increase, and therefore you get more people, but it also may not. There may be pockets where a company just needs a certain set of fixed tasks done, and suddenly they can do them with a 10th the number of people. This, by the way, could… is tragic and difficult in the moment for the individual being laid off. It’s also amazing for the economy at large. Suddenly you’ve freed up these resources who can now go do more productive things. This is how the whole economy evolves and improves, and how we get growth, and growth is good. I think this is the other thing to make a strong defense for, that growth in general is a good thing.
Productivity means fewer people to do the same number or the same job. Now, the amount of job you want done may increase, and therefore you get more people, but it also may not. There may be pockets where a company just needs a certain set of fixed tasks done, and suddenly they can do them with a 10th the number of people. This, by the way, could… is tragic and difficult in the moment for the individual being laid off. It’s also amazing for the economy at large. Suddenly you’ve freed up these resources who can now go do more productive things. This is how the whole economy evolves and improves, and how we get growth, and growth is good. I think this is the other thing to make a strong defense for, that growth in general is a good thing.
DHH
We do not want to wind the clock back to 1920 or 1950. We should be excited about the fact that we’ve discovered new technology that allows us to do vastly more. And while some of the tasks that may be taken over by AI were tasks that humans were excited to do, and they’re just no longer economically viable, a lot of the tasks were just drudgery. This is certainly true of my programming. There were moments of programming I thought were amazing. These were the moments that produced that state of flow we talked about last time, and they were ecstatic. How often did they happen out of the course of a year? If you took your average programmer, how much time out of 2,000 hours at the job did that person spend in a flow state?
We do not want to wind the clock back to 1920 or 1950. We should be excited about the fact that we’ve discovered new technology that allows us to do vastly more. And while some of the tasks that may be taken over by AI were tasks that humans were excited to do, and they’re just no longer economically viable, a lot of the tasks were just drudgery. This is certainly true of my programming. There were moments of programming I thought were amazing. These were the moments that produced that state of flow we talked about last time, and they were ecstatic. How often did they happen out of the course of a year? If you took your average programmer, how much time out of 2,000 hours at the job did that person spend in a flow state?
DHH
100? 200? 25? I think all those answers could be plausible for someone. And taking that drudgery, handing it over to machines, that is the history of civilization.
100? 200? 25? I think all those answers could be plausible for someone. And taking that drudgery, handing it over to machines, that is the history of civilization.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean, the hours spent debugging. So programming has so many painful, painful hours in it. And now they’re gone. For the… I mean, for the most part, it’s just fun.
Yeah, I mean, the hours spent debugging. So programming has so many painful, painful hours in it. And now they’re gone. For the… I mean, for the most part, it’s just fun.
DHH
A lot of it is gone in a lot of domains, and the rest of it may be gone very soon. So that’s where some of the romanticism also comes in- … because pain in the moment is difficult. It’s hard. It’s annoying. Pain in the rearview mirror is accomplishment, proud, learning, steps forward, all the things, right? So we encompass all of this as part of the human experience, that we hate pain in the moment, but we cherish it when it’s five minutes past and we don’t remember the hardship. We just remember the progress.
A lot of it is gone in a lot of domains, and the rest of it may be gone very soon. So that’s where some of the romanticism also comes in- … because pain in the moment is difficult. It’s hard. It’s annoying. Pain in the rearview mirror is accomplishment, proud, learning, steps forward, all the things, right? So we encompass all of this as part of the human experience, that we hate pain in the moment, but we cherish it when it’s five minutes past and we don’t remember the hardship. We just remember the progress.
Lex Fridman
So certainly at the societal level, at the macroeconomic level, growth is exciting. But at the individual level, there’s going to be a lot of anxiety, potentially a lot of suffering. So by way of advice, if you’re like a young DHH or young developer programmer now, what would you, what would you advise they do?
So certainly at the societal level, at the macroeconomic level, growth is exciting. But at the individual level, there’s going to be a lot of anxiety, potentially a lot of suffering. So by way of advice, if you’re like a young DHH or young developer programmer now, what would you, what would you advise they do?
DHH
Don’t try to anticipate anything. You will literally go crazy. Because even the smartest brains in the business cannot anticipate what two model hops from here is going to look like. It’s an absolute waste of time, and you will develop an AI psychosis trying to deduce what two years from now is gonna look like. Focus on right now, and right now is the most incredible time to be into computers. You can make them do the most amazing things if you lean in. If you maybe for a hot moment force yourself to learn where the state of the art is, I double dog dare you not to get excited about what’s possible.
Don’t try to anticipate anything. You will literally go crazy. Because even the smartest brains in the business cannot anticipate what two model hops from here is going to look like. It’s an absolute waste of time, and you will develop an AI psychosis trying to deduce what two years from now is gonna look like. Focus on right now, and right now is the most incredible time to be into computers. You can make them do the most amazing things if you lean in. If you maybe for a hot moment force yourself to learn where the state of the art is, I double dog dare you not to get excited about what’s possible.
Lex Fridman
And would you recommend building publicly?
And would you recommend building publicly?
DHH
I think it’s optional actually to build publicly. I think it’s, it’s nice to do because then you get to be part of a community, and there’s some camaraderie in open source. Not some camaraderie. There’s an enormous amount of camaraderie. Open source is an incredible source of community and camaraderie, and it’s also a great way to stem some of that personal existential dread. If you’re amongst other humans, you can get infected with good forms of mind viruses, exciting forms of mind viruses, the ones that tell you that it’s all gonna be okay, and the future looks bright, and if we build a bunch of things together, we can do things none of us ever dreamed we could do.
I think it’s optional actually to build publicly. I think it’s, it’s nice to do because then you get to be part of a community, and there’s some camaraderie in open source. Not some camaraderie. There’s an enormous amount of camaraderie. Open source is an incredible source of community and camaraderie, and it’s also a great way to stem some of that personal existential dread. If you’re amongst other humans, you can get infected with good forms of mind viruses, exciting forms of mind viruses, the ones that tell you that it’s all gonna be okay, and the future looks bright, and if we build a bunch of things together, we can do things none of us ever dreamed we could do.
DHH
I was just talking to Ryan Hughes, who’s been my main partner on Omarchy almost since day one, and we were literally talking about yesterday how when we started on this journey together, our ambitions were very modest. We’re just like, “Can we get this distro to not crash at 3:00 AM because of an Arch package that just got pushed out outside of our control? That would be amazing. Then it’d be great.” Now we’re leaning back and thinking, “How can we take over the world? How can we make Omarchy go to Mars? How can we do everything we’ve ever dreamed of?” And that level of ambition inflation is partly because things have gotten better with agents, but hugely also because we’ve surrounded ourselves with others excited about the same journey.
I was just talking to Ryan Hughes, who’s been my main partner on Omarchy almost since day one, and we were literally talking about yesterday how when we started on this journey together, our ambitions were very modest. We’re just like, “Can we get this distro to not crash at 3:00 AM because of an Arch package that just got pushed out outside of our control? That would be amazing. Then it’d be great.” Now we’re leaning back and thinking, “How can we take over the world? How can we make Omarchy go to Mars? How can we do everything we’ve ever dreamed of?” And that level of ambition inflation is partly because things have gotten better with agents, but hugely also because we’ve surrounded ourselves with others excited about the same journey.
DHH
And if you’re just sitting in your little isolated cave worrying about the future, yeah, you’re gonna go a little nuts. I think if we learned anything during COVID, it’s that people will go nuts sitting in their little cave inside by themselves worrying about what’s gonna happen. That is indistinguishable from depression, ruminating endlessly about things you can’t control. I’m sorry to channel some Jensen Huang here, but that’s just loser talk. You don’t have to be a loser. You can choose to lean in and- … win. And win is very broadly defined as learning more, making more, contributing more, being part of more. And at the end of the day, what are your choices? You don’t have a choice, mate.
And if you’re just sitting in your little isolated cave worrying about the future, yeah, you’re gonna go a little nuts. I think if we learned anything during COVID, it’s that people will go nuts sitting in their little cave inside by themselves worrying about what’s gonna happen. That is indistinguishable from depression, ruminating endlessly about things you can’t control. I’m sorry to channel some Jensen Huang here, but that’s just loser talk. You don’t have to be a loser. You can choose to lean in and- … win. And win is very broadly defined as learning more, making more, contributing more, being part of more. And at the end of the day, what are your choices? You don’t have a choice, mate.
DHH
The future’s coming whether you like it or not, so you might as well choose to be excited about it.
The future’s coming whether you like it or not, so you might as well choose to be excited about it.
Lex Fridman
But I mean, we should emphasize the fact that planning is nearly impossible with AI. I mean, most of us plan our life a little bit. When we’re younger, you have, like, hopes and dreams. There’s a reason you go to college. There’s a plan underlying that.
But I mean, we should emphasize the fact that planning is nearly impossible with AI. I mean, most of us plan our life a little bit. When we’re younger, you have, like, hopes and dreams. There’s a reason you go to college. There’s a plan underlying that.
DHH
I agree with that.
I agree with that.
Lex Fridman
But there-
But there-
DHH
I’ll concede that.
I’ll concede that.
Lex Fridman
… it is kinda-
… it is kinda-
DHH
This is different.
This is different.
Lex Fridman
… nuts that it’s impossible to really plan. Because, like, you really don’t know if there will even be a Claude Code, a Codex, and Cursor six months from now. Maybe it’ll be you’ll be talking to WhatsApp. Maybe it’ll be all open call type. Maybe it’ll just all be voice. Maybe Omarchy will take over the world and it’ll be voice. Maybe there won’t be operating systems anymore. You’ll just… There’ll be this glowing orb that just you just talk to because if natural language is enough to accomplish all tasks in life, like, what is life about? Like, what are the major tasks you need to accomplish in life? If you can just do that with voice, and it writes all the programs for you, and all is systematized, and what are the jobs needed then? Maybe it’s more about the service industry.
… nuts that it’s impossible to really plan. Because, like, you really don’t know if there will even be a Claude Code, a Codex, and Cursor six months from now. Maybe it’ll be you’ll be talking to WhatsApp. Maybe it’ll be all open call type. Maybe it’ll just all be voice. Maybe Omarchy will take over the world and it’ll be voice. Maybe there won’t be operating systems anymore. You’ll just… There’ll be this glowing orb that just you just talk to because if natural language is enough to accomplish all tasks in life, like, what is life about? Like, what are the major tasks you need to accomplish in life? If you can just do that with voice, and it writes all the programs for you, and all is systematized, and what are the jobs needed then? Maybe it’s more about the service industry.
Lex Fridman
Maybe there won’t be programmers, like agentic engineers at all. And so yes, your advice is wise to focus on the moment, but that doesn’t mean that it’s just a crazy rollercoaster ride, ’cause we don’t know what this December or what this January will look like.
Maybe there won’t be programmers, like agentic engineers at all. And so yes, your advice is wise to focus on the moment, but that doesn’t mean that it’s just a crazy rollercoaster ride, ’cause we don’t know what this December or what this January will look like.
DHH
We don’t know, and therefore, we should choose to have faith that it’s gonna pan out. That is my best advice towards fighting anxiety, is that you have a choice, to a large degree, of how to lean. Do you wanna lean into PDoom? PDoom is gonna happen whether you lean into it or not. You don’t have control.
We don’t know, and therefore, we should choose to have faith that it’s gonna pan out. That is my best advice towards fighting anxiety, is that you have a choice, to a large degree, of how to lean. Do you wanna lean into PDoom? PDoom is gonna happen whether you lean into it or not. You don’t have control.
Lex Fridman
But there’s also actual daily schedule of how much learning are you doing, how much building are you doing, how much diversification you’re doing. And for example, I traveled across rural China recently, and I did it quite deliberately because you’re talking to people in China, in rural anywhere, where time moves much slower, where there’s no discussions about agentic engineering. And the ti- and I started by going on the Great Wall of China. That’s timeless. That spans centuries. And, you know, there was, like, this kind of tension of FOMO, like maybe I’m missing out on something.
But there’s also actual daily schedule of how much learning are you doing, how much building are you doing, how much diversification you’re doing. And for example, I traveled across rural China recently, and I did it quite deliberately because you’re talking to people in China, in rural anywhere, where time moves much slower, where there’s no discussions about agentic engineering. And the ti- and I started by going on the Great Wall of China. That’s timeless. That spans centuries. And, you know, there was, like, this kind of tension of FOMO, like maybe I’m missing out on something.
Surviving Internet Hate
Lex Fridman
But then I very deliberately wanted to find the timelessness of human existence, really plug into the fact that, okay, it always feels like everything’s changing throughout human history, but, you know, the universals are still true of what matters in life. And I just wanted to make sure to keep connected to that.
But then I very deliberately wanted to find the timelessness of human existence, really plug into the fact that, okay, it always feels like everything’s changing throughout human history, but, you know, the universals are still true of what matters in life. And I just wanted to make sure to keep connected to that.
DHH
You’re not gonna miss anything. This is the part that actually grinded my gears in the early phases of this transition. Everyone was so up in arms that if you didn’t… It’s loops now. Oh, no, no, we’re done with loops. It’s graphs now. Oh, no, no, we’re done with that. It’s harnesses this, right? They’re constantly churning through the frontier, which in one way is actually very exciting. This is what happens when a new field opens up. It’s like a new portal, and it’s all spilling out. That’s exciting. But it also means that if I had just been backpacking for the last year, hadn’t touched a computer, hadn’t witnessed this agentic moment, and I just showed up yesterday, do you know what? I would’ve been caught up in two weeks.
You’re not gonna miss anything. This is the part that actually grinded my gears in the early phases of this transition. Everyone was so up in arms that if you didn’t… It’s loops now. Oh, no, no, we’re done with loops. It’s graphs now. Oh, no, no, we’re done with that. It’s harnesses this, right? They’re constantly churning through the frontier, which in one way is actually very exciting. This is what happens when a new field opens up. It’s like a new portal, and it’s all spilling out. That’s exciting. But it also means that if I had just been backpacking for the last year, hadn’t touched a computer, hadn’t witnessed this agentic moment, and I just showed up yesterday, do you know what? I would’ve been caught up in two weeks.
DHH
There’s not any accumulation, which is in some ways a great relief. If you missed the past year, you can catch up to the frontier in two weeks. If you’re a programmer who was out hiking the Himalayas for a year and you come back, you can catch up in two weeks. And this is actually the great credit to the progress we’re experiencing. We have so many experiments running simultaneously right now that are constantly and ruthlessly sorting what works, what doesn’t work. You don’t have to remember or even be part of that entire journey. You can just show up for the results.
There’s not any accumulation, which is in some ways a great relief. If you missed the past year, you can catch up to the frontier in two weeks. If you’re a programmer who was out hiking the Himalayas for a year and you come back, you can catch up in two weeks. And this is actually the great credit to the progress we’re experiencing. We have so many experiments running simultaneously right now that are constantly and ruthlessly sorting what works, what doesn’t work. You don’t have to remember or even be part of that entire journey. You can just show up for the results.
Lex Fridman
But the key step there, when you come back from the backpacking journey, is to be willing to become a totally new, different human because things are changing so fast.
But the key step there, when you come back from the backpacking journey, is to be willing to become a totally new, different human because things are changing so fast.
DHH
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
I mean, literally, if you left for the backpacking journey- … in October last year and came back in April or May-
I mean, literally, if you left for the backpacking journey- … in October last year and came back in April or May-
DHH
You might as well have been in the cryo chamber for 100 years.
You might as well have been in the cryo chamber for 100 years.
Lex Fridman
… it’s like, “What, what do you mean? We’re not programming anymore?” This, it’s a very… it’s a huge transformation.
… it’s like, “What, what do you mean? We’re not programming anymore?” This, it’s a very… it’s a huge transformation.
DHH
It’s startling, and I actually… I mean, I’m putting some of this on slightly for effect. I also recognize that it’s okay to grief for a hot moment. That’s not my disposition. It’s not how I do it, but I accept that that’s a time-tested mechanism for coping with a sense of loss. And it’s okay to have a sense of loss that the world that you knew and maybe you were very fond of is no longer the same.
It’s startling, and I actually… I mean, I’m putting some of this on slightly for effect. I also recognize that it’s okay to grief for a hot moment. That’s not my disposition. It’s not how I do it, but I accept that that’s a time-tested mechanism for coping with a sense of loss. And it’s okay to have a sense of loss that the world that you knew and maybe you were very fond of is no longer the same.
Lex Fridman
I maybe should say out loud and explicitly that I do have that, the Native American with a tear rolling down my… Like, there’s a sadness. It’s a goodbye. It’s a goodbye to the old world of programming.
I maybe should say out loud and explicitly that I do have that, the Native American with a tear rolling down my… Like, there’s a sadness. It’s a goodbye. It’s a goodbye to the old world of programming.
DHH
That’s… it’s so fascinating to me.
That’s… it’s so fascinating to me.
Lex Fridman
I’ve spent so many years-
I’ve spent so many years-
DHH
But it all amounted to this moment. That is, to me, what makes the entire journey so meaningful. AI did not arrive from the sky. It was not alien technology that had blasted through the universe and suddenly showed up on our shores. AI has been around for as long as computer science has been around. In the ’50s, they thought the problem was gonna be cracked in about a decade, the smartest people at the time. It took a little longer, but the reason it took a little longer was in part because we took some blind turns on the road to AI and neural networks and thought that there were other symbolic representations that were gonna carry the day, and they didn’t. And that probably set us back about 15 years. So some of it was also we had to go through the gaming revolution, 3D games.
But it all amounted to this moment. That is, to me, what makes the entire journey so meaningful. AI did not arrive from the sky. It was not alien technology that had blasted through the universe and suddenly showed up on our shores. AI has been around for as long as computer science has been around. In the ’50s, they thought the problem was gonna be cracked in about a decade, the smartest people at the time. It took a little longer, but the reason it took a little longer was in part because we took some blind turns on the road to AI and neural networks and thought that there were other symbolic representations that were gonna carry the day, and they didn’t. And that probably set us back about 15 years. So some of it was also we had to go through the gaming revolution, 3D games.
DHH
If we had not had Quake, if we had not had Duke Nukem, if we had not had Unreal Tournament, we’d never have gotten AI because we would never have gotten the GPUs, and therefore we would never have been able to get AI in the shape it is now. So everything we did up until this moment was required to get there. You were part of that. Holy… What a blessing. What a blessing to have contributed in your small part, either by training or by playing video games. Literally, you could just choose to think of it that way. All those times you spent in, for my case, in the ’90s just playing video games, they were-
If we had not had Quake, if we had not had Duke Nukem, if we had not had Unreal Tournament, we’d never have gotten AI because we would never have gotten the GPUs, and therefore we would never have been able to get AI in the shape it is now. So everything we did up until this moment was required to get there. You were part of that. Holy… What a blessing. What a blessing to have contributed in your small part, either by training or by playing video games. Literally, you could just choose to think of it that way. All those times you spent in, for my case, in the ’90s just playing video games, they were-
Lex Fridman
You were contributing.
You were contributing.
DHH
Yeah, I was contributing to the AI revolution right there and then moment.
Yeah, I was contributing to the AI revolution right there and then moment.
Lex Fridman
To the progress of human civilization. No, for sure. Civilization progresses with the death of the old and the birth of the new, and it continues in this way, but it’s still the grieving process is a part of it, I think.
To the progress of human civilization. No, for sure. Civilization progresses with the death of the old and the birth of the new, and it continues in this way, but it’s still the grieving process is a part of it, I think.
DHH
Take a moment. It’s okay. Take a… And also, you don’t even have to accept that it’s all dead. Like, if you are still very attached to the hand chiseling, which if you’d asked me a year ago, I would have predicted that I would’ve been more attached. I’m surprised-
Take a moment. It’s okay. Take a… And also, you don’t even have to accept that it’s all dead. Like, if you are still very attached to the hand chiseling, which if you’d asked me a year ago, I would have predicted that I would’ve been more attached. I’m surprised-
Lex Fridman
I’m kinda surprised…
I’m kinda surprised…
DHH
… a little that I’ve not been more attached. But the reason I’ve not been more attached, I think, is that I found something more fun. And if it hadn’t been like that, if AI had just replaced the thing I loved and gave me something I hated, I’d probably be a little bitter.
… a little that I’ve not been more attached. But the reason I’ve not been more attached, I think, is that I found something more fun. And if it hadn’t been like that, if AI had just replaced the thing I loved and gave me something I hated, I’d probably be a little bitter.
Lex Fridman
I mean, this really feels… It’s– it’s hilarious and awesome to watch and inspiring to watch. It’s like Picasso all of a sudden f– like, getting access to image generation and getting super excited and switching in a matter of months. That’s literally what happened. So, like, it’s an artist that appreciated beautiful code, and all of a sudden you’re talking about having fun-
I mean, this really feels… It’s– it’s hilarious and awesome to watch and inspiring to watch. It’s like Picasso all of a sudden f– like, getting access to image generation and getting super excited and switching in a matter of months. That’s literally what happened. So, like, it’s an artist that appreciated beautiful code, and all of a sudden you’re talking about having fun-
DHH
I think Picasso is actually a good parallel because if you look at his early work where he learned his craft, it was painting realistic paintings, right? Like, he was training to be a master of the old ways of depicting reality the best way we knew how, and then along comes all these other forms of expression. Cubism comes along.
I think Picasso is actually a good parallel because if you look at his early work where he learned his craft, it was painting realistic paintings, right? Like, he was training to be a master of the old ways of depicting reality the best way we knew how, and then along comes all these other forms of expression. Cubism comes along.
DHH
And all these o– forms of abstract expression, he’s not decrying that he’s not doing Renaissance paintings anymore, that he’s not just painting the perfect depiction of an apple. He’s reimagining the apple to be a freaking square, and he’s getting excited about that. And I feel that transition, that we’ve gone from this one mode of expression, and we’ve suddenly opened the gates where the, like, the color spectrum is so much wider. I’m seeing more. And it’s perhaps because the way I became a c– programmer. I did not become a programmer because of a deep love of if statements. I became a programmer because I wanted programs. I wanted things to exist that did not exist. And at first, I had to learn how to program to make that happen.
And all these o– forms of abstract expression, he’s not decrying that he’s not doing Renaissance paintings anymore, that he’s not just painting the perfect depiction of an apple. He’s reimagining the apple to be a freaking square, and he’s getting excited about that. And I feel that transition, that we’ve gone from this one mode of expression, and we’ve suddenly opened the gates where the, like, the color spectrum is so much wider. I’m seeing more. And it’s perhaps because the way I became a c– programmer. I did not become a programmer because of a deep love of if statements. I became a programmer because I wanted programs. I wanted things to exist that did not exist. And at first, I had to learn how to program to make that happen.
DHH
Then I happened to fall in love with programming as a craft, and then I spent two decades really diving deep on that. But now I’m back. I’m back to having an idea and being impatient beyond belief to see it exist in the world, and AI has just shrunk that down to almost nothing. So it’s an acceleration of a rediscovery. Now, I understand that that’s not true for everyone. There are plenty of programmers who just loved programming right from the beginning, and they were attracted to the logical constructs and so forth. I mean, I’ve been there for two decades, so I get it. But I also think that you’re able to discover new sides of yourself-
Then I happened to fall in love with programming as a craft, and then I spent two decades really diving deep on that. But now I’m back. I’m back to having an idea and being impatient beyond belief to see it exist in the world, and AI has just shrunk that down to almost nothing. So it’s an acceleration of a rediscovery. Now, I understand that that’s not true for everyone. There are plenty of programmers who just loved programming right from the beginning, and they were attracted to the logical constructs and so forth. I mean, I’ve been there for two decades, so I get it. But I also think that you’re able to discover new sides of yourself-
DHH
… if you let it in. Again, I keep coming back to this almost regret minimization framework, to borrow Jeff Bezos’s terms here. Are you gonna look at yourself two years from now and think, “Oh, I spent my time well being pissy about the present, about the fact that my industry changed”? Or would I two years from now look back upon this moment and be proud of myself for leaning in, for maybe having a moment of grief? Again, there’s room for all of it. And then going, “I’m gonna learn how the world spins now, and I’m gonna make not just the best of it, I’m gonna make more of it.”
… if you let it in. Again, I keep coming back to this almost regret minimization framework, to borrow Jeff Bezos’s terms here. Are you gonna look at yourself two years from now and think, “Oh, I spent my time well being pissy about the present, about the fact that my industry changed”? Or would I two years from now look back upon this moment and be proud of myself for leaning in, for maybe having a moment of grief? Again, there’s room for all of it. And then going, “I’m gonna learn how the world spins now, and I’m gonna make not just the best of it, I’m gonna make more of it.”
Lex Fridman
I mean, it is true, a lot of programmers, a lot of friends of mine, me, obviously you, are having fun.
I mean, it is true, a lot of programmers, a lot of friends of mine, me, obviously you, are having fun.
DHH
I have had more fun with computers in the last three months than at any time previously.
I have had more fun with computers in the last three months than at any time previously.
Lex Fridman
Quick bathroom break, and then I gotta ask you about how you actually interact with the systems now.
Quick bathroom break, and then I gotta ask you about how you actually interact with the systems now.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Programming setup for AI Agents
Lex Fridman
I gotta ask you about how has your setup programming setup changed? So, keyboard, voice, what’s the IDE?
I gotta ask you about how has your setup programming setup changed? So, keyboard, voice, what’s the IDE?
DHH
It’s crazy to think about now, but yeah, I used TextMate for almost 20 years. I used TextMate starting in 2005, I think. I helped get the first version out, and then I just wasn’t interested. I wasn’t in the market for an alternative. And it wasn’t until the switch to Linux that I was forced out of my habitat. And now with the switch to, what are we calling it? Agentic engineering? Oh, I fucking hate that term. We gotta come up with something that sounds as plain as programming, but encapsulates the fact that it’s with agents. But-
It’s crazy to think about now, but yeah, I used TextMate for almost 20 years. I used TextMate starting in 2005, I think. I helped get the first version out, and then I just wasn’t interested. I wasn’t in the market for an alternative. And it wasn’t until the switch to Linux that I was forced out of my habitat. And now with the switch to, what are we calling it? Agentic engineering? Oh, I fucking hate that term. We gotta come up with something that sounds as plain as programming, but encapsulates the fact that it’s with agents. But-
Lex Fridman
I still think it should be called programming at this point.
I still think it should be called programming at this point.
DHH
… All right, let’s just call it programming. Programming with agents requires a different tool set. It really does. And the main change here is that you’re going from single thread programming in your head to parallel processing. When I was writing code, chiseling it by hand in TextMate or even Neovim not that long ago, I would just focus on one problem at the time, and I would methodically work my way through it, and that was actually the portal to flow. The portal to flow was deep immersion into a single problem, see it through to the end.
… All right, let’s just call it programming. Programming with agents requires a different tool set. It really does. And the main change here is that you’re going from single thread programming in your head to parallel processing. When I was writing code, chiseling it by hand in TextMate or even Neovim not that long ago, I would just focus on one problem at the time, and I would methodically work my way through it, and that was actually the portal to flow. The portal to flow was deep immersion into a single problem, see it through to the end.
DHH
That’s not how it works with agents, in part because the agents are at once both too fast and too slow. They don’t give you an immediate reply on something that you asked them to do that’s the same as typing on a keyboard. So you have to let the agent cook- … for a bit, and therefore you realize, well, if I just sit around waiting for them, first of all, that doesn’t feel productive. Even if the agent, just one of them, can be highly productive, it does not feel productive. It does not feel good. It feels actually like you’re a little bit useless.
That’s not how it works with agents, in part because the agents are at once both too fast and too slow. They don’t give you an immediate reply on something that you asked them to do that’s the same as typing on a keyboard. So you have to let the agent cook- … for a bit, and therefore you realize, well, if I just sit around waiting for them, first of all, that doesn’t feel productive. Even if the agent, just one of them, can be highly productive, it does not feel productive. It does not feel good. It feels actually like you’re a little bit useless.
DHH
And maybe I had a moment when the first agentic moment was there and we, I was running mostly one agent at a time where I felt like, “I don’t know about this.” But you can solve a lot of hard problems by simply throwing more resources at it. This is the whole scaling law of AI itself, right? That if you parallelize these things and you’re not running one agent, but you’re running a handful, you can feel like you’re in a flow state because you’re constantly doing programming work in the sense that you’re making decisions, and you’re helping either unblock an agent because it has a question about which direction to take, or you’re ready for a new task. And to do that, you need a different setup.
And maybe I had a moment when the first agentic moment was there and we, I was running mostly one agent at a time where I felt like, “I don’t know about this.” But you can solve a lot of hard problems by simply throwing more resources at it. This is the whole scaling law of AI itself, right? That if you parallelize these things and you’re not running one agent, but you’re running a handful, you can feel like you’re in a flow state because you’re constantly doing programming work in the sense that you’re making decisions, and you’re helping either unblock an agent because it has a question about which direction to take, or you’re ready for a new task. And to do that, you need a different setup.
DHH
I started first doing it in tmux and just having separate panes and having separate splits. Basically a terminal with tabs is a good way to think about it. You open a bunch of tabs. I think most humans know exactly how that works. They don’t work in just one tab.
I started first doing it in tmux and just having separate panes and having separate splits. Basically a terminal with tabs is a good way to think about it. You open a bunch of tabs. I think most humans know exactly how that works. They don’t work in just one tab.
Lex Fridman
So still sticking to the terminal, CLI.
So still sticking to the terminal, CLI.
DHH
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
So you’re not using Claude Code app or the-
So you’re not using Claude Code app or the-
DHH
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
… Codex app or the-
… Codex app or the-
DHH
I love the fact that this agent revolution was kicked off in the terminal because I was already a huge fan of TUI’s, terminal user interfaces, and the terminal in general. That feels like a really nice place to be. It’s a beautiful place to be. The modern terminal is just a good-looking place to work. So I like that. And then this fact of having multiple agents, especially once it’s not just multiple agents running on your own machine, but you start running multiple machines. Now tmux alone is not enough to keep track of it, and that’s why as of late I’ve switched to this thing called Herdr.
I love the fact that this agent revolution was kicked off in the terminal because I was already a huge fan of TUI’s, terminal user interfaces, and the terminal in general. That feels like a really nice place to be. It’s a beautiful place to be. The modern terminal is just a good-looking place to work. So I like that. And then this fact of having multiple agents, especially once it’s not just multiple agents running on your own machine, but you start running multiple machines. Now tmux alone is not enough to keep track of it, and that’s why as of late I’ve switched to this thing called Herdr.
DHH
And Herdr is essentially tmux plus agent notifications. So whenever your agent is done and needs something for you, it goes ding, a little bell telling you it’s ready for its human… Is it master or servant? I’m not quite sure always. But it is ready for a decision, and it also keeps track of whether it is working mode or not. So I have this Herdr set up. I have multiple Herdr setups actually running on individual machines. I went on this crazy phase just about a month ago realizing that doing this work on a single machine is not fast enough. It’s like I’ve discovered multi-core programming, but I only have two cores. I’m like, “What if I had 16 cores? What if I had 32 cores? What if I had 64 cores?” So I instantly went out and I bought these amazing KVMs called GL.iNet Comets.
And Herdr is essentially tmux plus agent notifications. So whenever your agent is done and needs something for you, it goes ding, a little bell telling you it’s ready for its human… Is it master or servant? I’m not quite sure always. But it is ready for a decision, and it also keeps track of whether it is working mode or not. So I have this Herdr set up. I have multiple Herdr setups actually running on individual machines. I went on this crazy phase just about a month ago realizing that doing this work on a single machine is not fast enough. It’s like I’ve discovered multi-core programming, but I only have two cores. I’m like, “What if I had 16 cores? What if I had 32 cores? What if I had 64 cores?” So I instantly went out and I bought these amazing KVMs called GL.iNet Comets.
DHH
And what they do is it’s this little box. You plug in HDMI, you plug in USB and connect it to the computer. It’s like a KVM. So a KVM is a remote way of controlling a computer, but what’s special about this is just how easy it was. You connect this thing in, you go to a webpage, log in once, set one password. Now this thing can hop on your tailnet. This has been the other revolution of the last year for me, is discovering these WireGuard networks. Tailscale is essentially turning all the computers you have into a local network wherever you are. Like right now on my phone, I have direct access to all the computers in my Malibu office. I also have access to all my computers in my Copenhagen office.
And what they do is it’s this little box. You plug in HDMI, you plug in USB and connect it to the computer. It’s like a KVM. So a KVM is a remote way of controlling a computer, but what’s special about this is just how easy it was. You connect this thing in, you go to a webpage, log in once, set one password. Now this thing can hop on your tailnet. This has been the other revolution of the last year for me, is discovering these WireGuard networks. Tailscale is essentially turning all the computers you have into a local network wherever you are. Like right now on my phone, I have direct access to all the computers in my Malibu office. I also have access to all my computers in my Copenhagen office.
DHH
And I can treat them as though I sat right next to them without having to punch holes in a firewall or set up complicated VPNs. And what this does is it just decreases the friction it takes to get new compute online. So as soon as I discovered this, I looked at my closet, and I realized I had a bunch of mini PCs from prior experiments, and I just said, “What if I just connected all of them?”
And I can treat them as though I sat right next to them without having to punch holes in a firewall or set up complicated VPNs. And what this does is it just decreases the friction it takes to get new compute online. So as soon as I discovered this, I looked at my closet, and I realized I had a bunch of mini PCs from prior experiments, and I just said, “What if I just connected all of them?”
Lex Fridman
Oh, wow.
Oh, wow.
DHH
And I just connected four of the computers-
And I just connected four of the computers-
Lex Fridman
Nice.
Nice.
DHH
… in a closet. They all had their little Comet, and suddenly I could run agents on more computers at the same time, and I could control them all with Herdr. And it did get to a point where I maxed out my own processing power.
… in a closet. They all had their little Comet, and suddenly I could run agents on more computers at the same time, and I could control them all with Herdr. And it did get to a point where I maxed out my own processing power.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
DHH
That I think at about… What do we want to put it? About four to five machines running, I don’t know, three agents. I have about 16 threads. That’s what I can run. And the faster the agents run, of course, the fewer threads I can run, but at the current pace, I can run about 16 threads- … at full acceleration. And that’s part of why I’ve gone from just being excited about the agent moment to being delirious. Because I think as you say, some of it is a little assaulting. Again, we’re on—we’re on a dial-up bandwidth-wise with our computer. I mean, it’s actually hilarious. So you think of I’m sitting here a year ago, right? I’m chiseling my code. I’m writing my lines.
That I think at about… What do we want to put it? About four to five machines running, I don’t know, three agents. I have about 16 threads. That’s what I can run. And the faster the agents run, of course, the fewer threads I can run, but at the current pace, I can run about 16 threads- … at full acceleration. And that’s part of why I’ve gone from just being excited about the agent moment to being delirious. Because I think as you say, some of it is a little assaulting. Again, we’re on—we’re on a dial-up bandwidth-wise with our computer. I mean, it’s actually hilarious. So you think of I’m sitting here a year ago, right? I’m chiseling my code. I’m writing my lines.
DHH
And over the course of, like, an hour, I will have written one beautiful controller, one beautiful model. Like, that’s one file. And I’ve really worked on it, right? So maybe there’s 60 lines left. So maybe my bandwidth at this moment is, like, 30 lines an hour. I think that’s even high. Maybe it’s 20 lines an hour. Now I’m running 16 threads. I’m producing at some times hundreds of lines an hour or hundreds of lines of code per hour. Now, let me pause myself there for a hot moment. I hate that metric, right?
And over the course of, like, an hour, I will have written one beautiful controller, one beautiful model. Like, that’s one file. And I’ve really worked on it, right? So maybe there’s 60 lines left. So maybe my bandwidth at this moment is, like, 30 lines an hour. I think that’s even high. Maybe it’s 20 lines an hour. Now I’m running 16 threads. I’m producing at some times hundreds of lines an hour or hundreds of lines of code per hour. Now, let me pause myself there for a hot moment. I hate that metric, right?
DHH
Like, lines of code is a stupid metric in general to measure these things, and I think it’s right from some in the programming community to ridicule the AI psychosis when everyone talks about the number of lines of code they’re writing, and then you ask them, “What did you build?” And then they’re like, “Well, I…” And then no good answer comes out, right?
Like, lines of code is a stupid metric in general to measure these things, and I think it’s right from some in the programming community to ridicule the AI psychosis when everyone talks about the number of lines of code they’re writing, and then you ask them, “What did you build?” And then they’re like, “Well, I…” And then no good answer comes out, right?
Lex Fridman
It’s just a nice shorthand to-
It’s just a nice shorthand to-
DHH
It is a nice shorthand. It is a representation or encapsulation of how much output that’s coming out. Now, whether the output is good or bad-
It is a nice shorthand. It is a representation or encapsulation of how much output that’s coming out. Now, whether the output is good or bad-
DHH
… is not a referendum on that. But I was producing and producing so much more now, right? And therefore I’m able to keep all these threads going. So that’s the setup. It’s still Neovim, but at this point, I’m not writing a lot of code, so I’m using Neovim as a project browser and then as a way to kick off lazygit to see the change log for what’s there. And even that, I’d say if GitHub was a little faster at showing you your pull request, the web is probably actually a nicer place to do that. I don’t know. There’s also this other tool I’ve been playing with a bit called Hunk, which just produces diffs in a really nice way. So you could look at that too.
… is not a referendum on that. But I was producing and producing so much more now, right? And therefore I’m able to keep all these threads going. So that’s the setup. It’s still Neovim, but at this point, I’m not writing a lot of code, so I’m using Neovim as a project browser and then as a way to kick off lazygit to see the change log for what’s there. And even that, I’d say if GitHub was a little faster at showing you your pull request, the web is probably actually a nicer place to do that. I don’t know. There’s also this other tool I’ve been playing with a bit called Hunk, which just produces diffs in a really nice way. So you could look at that too.
DHH
But I find that when I look at Hunk, I only see the change set, and when I’m reviewing output from an agent, I often want to see the surrounding context. Oh, yeah, so it changed this file, but actually, what do we have in this other file that wasn’t touched but maybe should’ve been touched? So that’s why I still like Neovim as a way of doing it. But it’s all happening, by the way, of course, in Omarchy. So it’s all happening on Linux. And this was the other major breakthrough with agents. Agents love the Unix philosophy. It loves individual tools that it can invoke through the command line, and there is no operating system on Earth of the majors, I’m counting three here, Mac, Windows, Linux, that works as well with that mechanism as Linux.
But I find that when I look at Hunk, I only see the change set, and when I’m reviewing output from an agent, I often want to see the surrounding context. Oh, yeah, so it changed this file, but actually, what do we have in this other file that wasn’t touched but maybe should’ve been touched? So that’s why I still like Neovim as a way of doing it. But it’s all happening, by the way, of course, in Omarchy. So it’s all happening on Linux. And this was the other major breakthrough with agents. Agents love the Unix philosophy. It loves individual tools that it can invoke through the command line, and there is no operating system on Earth of the majors, I’m counting three here, Mac, Windows, Linux, that works as well with that mechanism as Linux.
DHH
Everything in Linux is either a config file or a CLI tool. Now, that was its main drawback five minutes ago. This was the reason people didn’t like Linux. It’s like it’s all config files and CLI tools.
Everything in Linux is either a config file or a CLI tool. Now, that was its main drawback five minutes ago. This was the reason people didn’t like Linux. It’s like it’s all config files and CLI tools.
DHH
What great irony that the universe has played it upon us that now the drawbacks of Linux five minutes ago are now its major selling points. This was one of the things… I thought I was stuck for a weekend with a Mac four months ago. I thought I had a computer at the place I was going that was a Linux machine, so I didn’t bring my laptop, and I found out when I arrived I only had a Mac Mini. So I was gonna make the best of a bad situation here and set up my Mac in some of the ways I’ve been thinking about with Linux. And you can actually do a lot now. Homebrew has gotten really quite good. Homebrew is the missing package manager for the Mac, and no one has done more to move the Mac forward in terms of ease of setup.
What great irony that the universe has played it upon us that now the drawbacks of Linux five minutes ago are now its major selling points. This was one of the things… I thought I was stuck for a weekend with a Mac four months ago. I thought I had a computer at the place I was going that was a Linux machine, so I didn’t bring my laptop, and I found out when I arrived I only had a Mac Mini. So I was gonna make the best of a bad situation here and set up my Mac in some of the ways I’ve been thinking about with Linux. And you can actually do a lot now. Homebrew has gotten really quite good. Homebrew is the missing package manager for the Mac, and no one has done more to move the Mac forward in terms of ease of setup.
DHH
But still something as simple as Raycast, I don’t know if you’ve used that. That’s the- There’s no config file that you can just access. You have to go into the GUI, export a file, then take that file, I don’t know, in your freaking backpack on a USB key. And then you can import it somewhere else. You cannot automate the entire setup of your machine. You can’t automate at all the configuration of Mac’s default key bindings. That has to be a manual process where you’re clicking with a mouse like a caveman to set up your machine.
But still something as simple as Raycast, I don’t know if you’ve used that. That’s the- There’s no config file that you can just access. You have to go into the GUI, export a file, then take that file, I don’t know, in your freaking backpack on a USB key. And then you can import it somewhere else. You cannot automate the entire setup of your machine. You can’t automate at all the configuration of Mac’s default key bindings. That has to be a manual process where you’re clicking with a mouse like a caveman to set up your machine.
Lex Fridman
I mean, there’s ways around it.
I mean, there’s ways around it.
DHH
Not good ones. I looked. I tried hard.
Not good ones. I looked. I tried hard.
Lex Fridman
So here’s my—been my journey. Obviously I’m a Linux person, but because of Adobe Premiere, Adobe products, I’m also a Windows person, so oftentimes I would use WSL, Windows Subsystem for Linux.
So here’s my—been my journey. Obviously I’m a Linux person, but because of Adobe Premiere, Adobe products, I’m also a Windows person, so oftentimes I would use WSL, Windows Subsystem for Linux.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
So Linux inside Windows, which is… in the agentic era is not a good kind of Linux, ’cause it’s just-
So Linux inside Windows, which is… in the agentic era is not a good kind of Linux, ’cause it’s just-
DHH
It’s a sandbox.
It’s a sandbox.
Lex Fridman
… it’s a sandbox, and you want the Linux to be unleashed to be able to do everything.
… it’s a sandbox, and you want the Linux to be unleashed to be able to do everything.
DHH
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
And so I have now woken up to things like GrayCat, and have w- you know, I’m a keyboard person. Where’s the config file? What, can I basically do everything where an agent can, can set everything up for me and save the configuration so I can replicate it across systems and everything’s automated? And so I had to ask a lot of those questions, and a lot of them are missing.
And so I have now woken up to things like GrayCat, and have w- you know, I’m a keyboard person. Where’s the config file? What, can I basically do everything where an agent can, can set everything up for me and save the configuration so I can replicate it across systems and everything’s automated? And so I had to ask a lot of those questions, and a lot of them are missing.
DHH
They don’t have good answers.
They don’t have good answers.
Lex Fridman
But oftentimes you could actually just build the app yourself.
But oftentimes you could actually just build the app yourself.
DHH
But there are hacks.
But there are hacks.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, they’re hacks.
Yeah, they’re hacks.
DHH
There are hacks.
There are hacks.
Lex Fridman
They’re hacks.
They’re hacks.
DHH
You don’t have to live like this, Lex. There’s a better… Actually, this is a great moment.
You don’t have to live like this, Lex. There’s a better… Actually, this is a great moment.
Lex Fridman
Until you have a video editor.
Until you have a video editor.
Obsessing about speed
DHH
So this is a good moment.
So this is a good moment.
Lex Fridman
Yep.
Yep.
DHH
I heard it was your birthday.
I heard it was your birthday.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
So I brought a little gift.
So I brought a little gift.
Lex Fridman
No.
No.
DHH
We are going to get you onto the agentic operating system whether you like it or not.
We are going to get you onto the agentic operating system whether you like it or not.
Lex Fridman
This is awesome.
This is awesome.
DHH
And I asked- … my friends at Dell whether maybe they had a machine that I could get you for your birthday.
And I asked- … my friends at Dell whether maybe they had a machine that I could get you for your birthday.
Lex Fridman
Oh, no.
Oh, no.
DHH
So here’s the machine I use- … which is- … well, the same one I use, but it’s now yours. It’s a-
So here’s the machine I use- … which is- … well, the same one I use, but it’s now yours. It’s a-
Lex Fridman
No
No
DHH
… Dell XPS 14- … already set up with Omarchy 4-
… Dell XPS 14- … already set up with Omarchy 4-
Lex Fridman
Oh, wow
Oh, wow
DHH
… ready to be configured for you. And once you realize that all your… By the way, we should almost time this. You can be up and running. You have to answer, like, five questions in about one minute. You could literally do it live if you wanted to.
… ready to be configured for you. And once you realize that all your… By the way, we should almost time this. You can be up and running. You have to answer, like, five questions in about one minute. You could literally do it live if you wanted to.
Lex Fridman
Oh, Omarchy, beautiful, modern opinion Linux by DHH. Yeah, let’s do it.
Oh, Omarchy, beautiful, modern opinion Linux by DHH. Yeah, let’s do it.
DHH
Yeah, fill it out while I talk. So-
Yeah, fill it out while I talk. So-
Lex Fridman
Cool
Cool
DHH
… exactly what you realized, that pain on the Mac was the exposure I got for about a weekend, and I tried really hard, and I found some decent workarounds, the main one being that Homebrew now has tabs for GUI apps. Because it’s hilarious to think upon the recent past where people would go to websites, like, “I need Zoom.” They would enter zoom.com, find the download link, download a DMG- … double-click on that, see a weird manual interaction telling them to drag an icon from one place of the screen to the other, and that was how you installed apps. And you’d just do that over and over again until you had all the apps that you wanted, and if you were setting up a new machine and you had, like, 12 apps, you’d go to 12 different websites to download them like a total caveman.
… exactly what you realized, that pain on the Mac was the exposure I got for about a weekend, and I tried really hard, and I found some decent workarounds, the main one being that Homebrew now has tabs for GUI apps. Because it’s hilarious to think upon the recent past where people would go to websites, like, “I need Zoom.” They would enter zoom.com, find the download link, download a DMG- … double-click on that, see a weird manual interaction telling them to drag an icon from one place of the screen to the other, and that was how you installed apps. And you’d just do that over and over again until you had all the apps that you wanted, and if you were setting up a new machine and you had, like, 12 apps, you’d go to 12 different websites to download them like a total caveman.
DHH
Homebrew has solved a lot of that, but it has not solved all of it, and has solved nothing in terms of the-
Homebrew has solved a lot of that, but it has not solved all of it, and has solved nothing in terms of the-
Lex Fridman
Sorry to interrupt, but look how fast this is going.
Sorry to interrupt, but look how fast this is going.
DHH
Oh, it’s gonna be done in about 40 seconds. And then you’re gonna be inside of Omarchy.
Oh, it’s gonna be done in about 40 seconds. And then you’re gonna be inside of Omarchy.
Lex Fridman
Super is the Windows or Command key on your keyboard. So which one is the Super key?
Super is the Windows or Command key on your keyboard. So which one is the Super key?
DHH
Yep, that’s the Windows key. Oh, actually, no, no, you have a special edition.
Yep, that’s the Windows key. Oh, actually, no, no, you have a special edition.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
There are only about six of these computers in the world.
There are only about six of these computers in the world.
Lex Fridman
Oh, there’s a Super key.
Oh, there’s a Super key.
DHH
It says Super, and look at where the Copilot key is on the other end of the keyboard. That’s the Omarchy logo.
It says Super, and look at where the Copilot key is on the other end of the keyboard. That’s the Omarchy logo.
Lex Fridman
Nice. Okay, cool.
Nice. Okay, cool.
DHH
This was Spencer Bull at Dell, who I’ve been working with on a lot of this stuff. They’ve been incredible.
This was Spencer Bull at Dell, who I’ve been working with on a lot of this stuff. They’ve been incredible.
Lex Fridman
They, for a moment, let go of the XPS brand.
They, for a moment, let go of the XPS brand.
DHH
Yes, they did, last year.
Yes, they did, last year.
Lex Fridman
And I was like, “This is dumb. This is… XPS is awesome.”
And I was like, “This is dumb. This is… XPS is awesome.”
DHH
It was not just dumb that it got rid of the XPS branding. They also got rid of the Escape key and put in capacitive touch buttons at the top. The mistake that Apple realized like three years ago was terrible, and everyone hated them for them. But now they have an incredible team, and this was actually my first Dell laptop for myself.
It was not just dumb that it got rid of the XPS branding. They also got rid of the Escape key and put in capacitive touch buttons at the top. The mistake that Apple realized like three years ago was terrible, and everyone hated them for them. But now they have an incredible team, and this was actually my first Dell laptop for myself.
DHH
Because I’ve been using Dell on our servers. Dell was what powered our cloud exit. We’ve been running Dell since the mid-2000s, I think. But I never ran their laptops, because compared to a MacBook, they just weren’t up to the task for me. The XPS’ from 2016, or from 2026, with those Intel Panther Lake chips, are the first Dells that I would personally actually use. And it’s funny because when I got mad at Apple originally, I thought, like, “Do you know what? I should just get a Dell,” because we already used them and whatever, and I got a Dell, and I was like, “Man, I can’t do it. I can’t do it. It’s not good enough.” And then lo and behold, this year they just fixed everything. They fixed the battery life. They fixed the performance.
Because I’ve been using Dell on our servers. Dell was what powered our cloud exit. We’ve been running Dell since the mid-2000s, I think. But I never ran their laptops, because compared to a MacBook, they just weren’t up to the task for me. The XPS’ from 2016, or from 2026, with those Intel Panther Lake chips, are the first Dells that I would personally actually use. And it’s funny because when I got mad at Apple originally, I thought, like, “Do you know what? I should just get a Dell,” because we already used them and whatever, and I got a Dell, and I was like, “Man, I can’t do it. I can’t do it. It’s not good enough.” And then lo and behold, this year they just fixed everything. They fixed the battery life. They fixed the performance.
DHH
They fixed the compatibility. They fixed the weight. They fixed the screen. That’s a tandem OLED screen-
They fixed the compatibility. They fixed the weight. They fixed the screen. That’s a tandem OLED screen-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s incredible.
Yeah, that’s incredible.
DHH
… which means it’s actually better tech than what you’ll get in a freaking MacBook. It’s lighter than a MacBook, and the chip is finally competitive because Intel spent a good five years developing the 18A process node. It took a long time, but now it’s here, and it’s freaking incredible. We finally have competition to Apple M chips- … that can go as long as on battery and can have competitive performance.
… which means it’s actually better tech than what you’ll get in a freaking MacBook. It’s lighter than a MacBook, and the chip is finally competitive because Intel spent a good five years developing the 18A process node. It took a long time, but now it’s here, and it’s freaking incredible. We finally have competition to Apple M chips- … that can go as long as on battery and can have competitive performance.
Lex Fridman
And there’s a beautiful default theme to this thing, and then what is it? Super Space opens up.
And there’s a beautiful default theme to this thing, and then what is it? Super Space opens up.
DHH
Actually, you can just push the Omarchy key. It opens up the menu. So now you control everything from there.
Actually, you can just push the Omarchy key. It opens up the menu. So now you control everything from there.
Lex Fridman
Oh, same thing as the Super. Okay. Cool.
Oh, same thing as the Super. Okay. Cool.
DHH
Same thing as Super Space. So this has been a huge change for me, that we finally have Linux machines that you don’t have to make excuses for. Because I don’t mind making excuses because excuses are really just another word for trade-offs. I love that Framework 13 I think I talked about last time. I still like them. They still make good computers. But I think for a lot of people, they didn’t want a DIY experience. They wanted something that just out of the box felt like it was on par in build quality and whatever with Macs, and now we finally have it. So happy birthday.
Same thing as Super Space. So this has been a huge change for me, that we finally have Linux machines that you don’t have to make excuses for. Because I don’t mind making excuses because excuses are really just another word for trade-offs. I love that Framework 13 I think I talked about last time. I still like them. They still make good computers. But I think for a lot of people, they didn’t want a DIY experience. They wanted something that just out of the box felt like it was on par in build quality and whatever with Macs, and now we finally have it. So happy birthday.
Lex Fridman
Thank you so much. An Omarchy Dell laptop from DHH is the best birthday present. This is awesome.
Thank you so much. An Omarchy Dell laptop from DHH is the best birthday present. This is awesome.
DHH
Check the screensaver, by the way.
Check the screensaver, by the way.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s kind of amazing. I’m seeing it.
Yeah, it’s kind of amazing. I’m seeing it.
DHH
On that tandem OLED screen-
On that tandem OLED screen-
Lex Fridman
It’s gorgeous.
It’s gorgeous.
DHH
… it is absolutely mind-bogglingly awesome.
… it is absolutely mind-bogglingly awesome.
Lex Fridman
Look at that. There’s like a retro look to the whole thing. It’s like Fiverr pop-
Look at that. There’s like a retro look to the whole thing. It’s like Fiverr pop-
DHH
It’s like running a bulletin board system in- … the ’90s, which is exactly what I did when I was 14 years old. So for me, it’s a complete throwback and an awesome aesthetic, combining this sense of modern rising culture in Unix with- … this throwback of the ’90s.
It’s like running a bulletin board system in- … the ’90s, which is exactly what I did when I was 14 years old. So for me, it’s a complete throwback and an awesome aesthetic, combining this sense of modern rising culture in Unix with- … this throwback of the ’90s.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, like a retro look for an agent first OS. It’s crazy.
Yeah, like a retro look for an agent first OS. It’s crazy.
DHH
Which again, pairs… This was why I was so excited that- … all these agent harnesses arrived as TUI’s, arrived as CLIs- … has arrived as a terminal because suddenly, a whole new generation of both programmers and regular users discovered the glory of the terminal. The terminal was actually one of the most impressive and productive user interfaces we can have. Now, we’ve built user interfaces since then that were easier to learn. The mouse is a wonderful invention for letting someone who doesn’t know a lot about computers just click around and find things out, but the terminal is for people who want to learn their systems, who wanna learn the keyboard commands.
Which again, pairs… This was why I was so excited that- … all these agent harnesses arrived as TUI’s, arrived as CLIs- … has arrived as a terminal because suddenly, a whole new generation of both programmers and regular users discovered the glory of the terminal. The terminal was actually one of the most impressive and productive user interfaces we can have. Now, we’ve built user interfaces since then that were easier to learn. The mouse is a wonderful invention for letting someone who doesn’t know a lot about computers just click around and find things out, but the terminal is for people who want to learn their systems, who wanna learn the keyboard commands.
Lex Fridman
So you think the TUI is gonna stick around?
So you think the TUI is gonna stick around?
DHH
100%. Now, it’s not gonna be the only thing. Of course it’s not, because these labs now have trillion dollar valuations, so they need to be able to reach billions of people. And I don’t think we’re gonna teach billions of people the intricacies of the TUI. So we’re gonna have other tools, and we already have other tools, which is, by the way, one of the sweet things about Linux, the ChatGPT Codex tool.
100%. Now, it’s not gonna be the only thing. Of course it’s not, because these labs now have trillion dollar valuations, so they need to be able to reach billions of people. And I don’t think we’re gonna teach billions of people the intricacies of the TUI. So we’re gonna have other tools, and we already have other tools, which is, by the way, one of the sweet things about Linux, the ChatGPT Codex tool.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I saw that.
Yeah, I saw that.
DHH
Literally within two hours of that announcement dropping, I had it wrapped up and ready to go in Omachi. Already now, if you go to… You can actually hit the Omachi key- … and then just write ChatGPT. It should pop up as, like, install.
Literally within two hours of that announcement dropping, I had it wrapped up and ready to go in Omachi. Already now, if you go to… You can actually hit the Omachi key- … and then just write ChatGPT. It should pop up as, like, install.
Lex Fridman
Nice.
Nice.
DHH
And then just hit return.
And then just hit return.
Lex Fridman
Sudo password for Lex.
Sudo password for Lex.
DHH
Yeah, whatever you put in. And then it’s just gonna install it, and it’s gonna pop it up, and you have ChatGPT.
Yeah, whatever you put in. And then it’s just gonna install it, and it’s gonna pop it up, and you have ChatGPT.
Lex Fridman
Nice.
Nice.
DHH
And that’s how a lot of the apps are, and all the agentic harnesses are built in that way. Tailscale, as I talked about, if you wanna hop on that, is that way. Dropbox. And the reason all these things are in there is because I use them. It’s because I built this system for me, and I thought, first and foremost, how do I build my dream computer just for me? And if I get my dream computer, I am assured there are other people who are gonna have the same dreams as I do.
And that’s how a lot of the apps are, and all the agentic harnesses are built in that way. Tailscale, as I talked about, if you wanna hop on that, is that way. Dropbox. And the reason all these things are in there is because I use them. It’s because I built this system for me, and I thought, first and foremost, how do I build my dream computer just for me? And if I get my dream computer, I am assured there are other people who are gonna have the same dreams as I do.
Lex Fridman
Now, you’re obsessed about getting the installation to be under one minute, and a bunch of people asked you online why. So why? Why were you so obsessed to getting the installation to be less than 60 seconds?
Now, you’re obsessed about getting the installation to be under one minute, and a bunch of people asked you online why. So why? Why were you so obsessed to getting the installation to be less than 60 seconds?
DHH
First, let me quote Michel Hashimoto, who created Ghostty terminal that’s awesome and also available on Omachi and was also the founder of HashiCorp, who had this great post on X not too long ago that had the killer line, “The pursuit of excellence deserves no explanation.” Wanting to make something as good and as fast and as beautiful as possible has no need for justification.
First, let me quote Michel Hashimoto, who created Ghostty terminal that’s awesome and also available on Omachi and was also the founder of HashiCorp, who had this great post on X not too long ago that had the killer line, “The pursuit of excellence deserves no explanation.” Wanting to make something as good and as fast and as beautiful as possible has no need for justification.
DHH
We should want beautiful, fast systems that are a delight to use. Now, the funny thing with the install time is it didn’t actually start with a one-minute mission. I was being modest when it got going. I thought if I could set up my entire system in 15 minutes, it would already be such a dramatic improvement over what came before it that I would be perfectly happy. And it came off the fact that the benchmarking had been skewed so out of whack. You talked about the Commodore 64 being your first computer, right?
We should want beautiful, fast systems that are a delight to use. Now, the funny thing with the install time is it didn’t actually start with a one-minute mission. I was being modest when it got going. I thought if I could set up my entire system in 15 minutes, it would already be such a dramatic improvement over what came before it that I would be perfectly happy. And it came off the fact that the benchmarking had been skewed so out of whack. You talked about the Commodore 64 being your first computer, right?
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
DHH
When you unwrap that Commodore 64 and you hit the on button, in I think about less than one second, the basic interpreter was ready to accept your command. It was literally almost instant. There was virtually no boot time. Do you know how long it took me to set up a new Mac that I had bought for actually the one app that I still haven’t vibe coded my way into on Linux, which is Adobe Lightroom?
When you unwrap that Commodore 64 and you hit the on button, in I think about less than one second, the basic interpreter was ready to accept your command. It was literally almost instant. There was virtually no boot time. Do you know how long it took me to set up a new Mac that I had bought for actually the one app that I still haven’t vibe coded my way into on Linux, which is Adobe Lightroom?
DHH
Brand-new computer, out of the box. I set it up. There’s a software update. Before I was ready to install Adobe Lightroom that I had it fully up to date, it took 42 minutes. That’s grotesque. That’s absurd. That’s an insult to everyone who likes computers, that you get a new computer and before you can use it, you have to spend 42 minutes doing updates… on something that was already installed on it out of the box from the factory. That is just preposterous, and it’s crazy that that’s not even the worst thing. I also got a PC because all these Linux machines, they come as PCs, right?
Brand-new computer, out of the box. I set it up. There’s a software update. Before I was ready to install Adobe Lightroom that I had it fully up to date, it took 42 minutes. That’s grotesque. That’s absurd. That’s an insult to everyone who likes computers, that you get a new computer and before you can use it, you have to spend 42 minutes doing updates… on something that was already installed on it out of the box from the factory. That is just preposterous, and it’s crazy that that’s not even the worst thing. I also got a PC because all these Linux machines, they come as PCs, right?
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
DHH
And they have Windows pre-installed. So I got one. This was just three weeks ago. Brand-new machine, Intel Panther Lake, the whole shebang. An hour and 35 minutes from unwrapping the thing until it’s ready to use. How long did you take before you think you were in Omarchy?
And they have Windows pre-installed. So I got one. This was just three weeks ago. Brand-new machine, Intel Panther Lake, the whole shebang. An hour and 35 minutes from unwrapping the thing until it’s ready to use. How long did you take before you think you were in Omarchy?
Lex Fridman
I mean, it’s less than a minute for sure.
I mean, it’s less than a minute for sure.
DHH
A minute.
A minute.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
We can build computers like this. We have the technology. We’ve had the technology since like 1981 when the Commodore 64 first came out. The fact that we now have a computer that’s a trillion times faster and you have to spend 42 minutes or an hour and a half setting it up before it’s ready to use is so infuriating to me that it became a passion. And it’s funny, just while we were having a little break here, I was talking to Ryan Hughes, my co-conspirator here. We now have, we think, a line where we can create these special turbo images that are pre-made for specific computers because it relies on some knowledge of the hardware, like the Dell XPS. We’re gonna make a Dell XPS turbo image that can install in about 12 seconds. A full Linux system-
We can build computers like this. We have the technology. We’ve had the technology since like 1981 when the Commodore 64 first came out. The fact that we now have a computer that’s a trillion times faster and you have to spend 42 minutes or an hour and a half setting it up before it’s ready to use is so infuriating to me that it became a passion. And it’s funny, just while we were having a little break here, I was talking to Ryan Hughes, my co-conspirator here. We now have, we think, a line where we can create these special turbo images that are pre-made for specific computers because it relies on some knowledge of the hardware, like the Dell XPS. We’re gonna make a Dell XPS turbo image that can install in about 12 seconds. A full Linux system-
Lex Fridman
Yeah
Yeah
DHH
… installed in about 12 seconds.
… installed in about 12 seconds.
Lex Fridman
That’s incredible.
That’s incredible.
DHH
That obsession is what gives me this great satisfaction with using computers, that we do not accept things the way they are. And this is why this agent-accelerated reality that I now inhabit is so invigorating. Because I can look at these kinds of constraints and go, do you know what? I could have stopped when we were at five minutes. That would already have been fast enough. This was the argument on X, right? Why do you keep going? Five minutes is fast enough. Okay, maybe for you, but for me, 12 seconds is a lot more fun. And I always think, try to think these first principles. Okay, in that machine, actually hit the Omarchy key again, and then do speed. You’ll see a list come up, and one of them is, like, disk speed.
That obsession is what gives me this great satisfaction with using computers, that we do not accept things the way they are. And this is why this agent-accelerated reality that I now inhabit is so invigorating. Because I can look at these kinds of constraints and go, do you know what? I could have stopped when we were at five minutes. That would already have been fast enough. This was the argument on X, right? Why do you keep going? Five minutes is fast enough. Okay, maybe for you, but for me, 12 seconds is a lot more fun. And I always think, try to think these first principles. Okay, in that machine, actually hit the Omarchy key again, and then do speed. You’ll see a list come up, and one of them is, like, disk speed.
Lex Fridman
Speed test, network speed, disk speed.
Speed test, network speed, disk speed.
DHH
Disk speed. Do that one, and then run it. So this is testing the performance of the built-in NVMe drive, and what are you getting?
Disk speed. Do that one, and then run it. So this is testing the performance of the built-in NVMe drive, and what are you getting?
Lex Fridman
Seven GB a second.
Seven GB a second.
DHH
So seven gigabytes a second. That’s how fast that drive is. Why can we not install a Linux distribution in one second? The Omarchy distribution is 5.8 gigabytes. If we can run at seven gig… Now, of course, you can’t actually do that because the USB key is a lot slower than that, but you should be able to maximize the underlying physics and protocols that we’re dealing with, and that’s your goal. We gotta get all the way back down to that.
So seven gigabytes a second. That’s how fast that drive is. Why can we not install a Linux distribution in one second? The Omarchy distribution is 5.8 gigabytes. If we can run at seven gig… Now, of course, you can’t actually do that because the USB key is a lot slower than that, but you should be able to maximize the underlying physics and protocols that we’re dealing with, and that’s your goal. We gotta get all the way back down to that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I love that you’re doing a Linux distribution. ‘Cause I mean, you could be do… You could be building anything. But the fact that you’re building a Linux distribution means you’re rethinking about what a computer is, ’cause a operating system is the fundamental, like, the foundation of how-
Yeah. I love that you’re doing a Linux distribution. ‘Cause I mean, you could be do… You could be building anything. But the fact that you’re building a Linux distribution means you’re rethinking about what a computer is, ’cause a operating system is the fundamental, like, the foundation of how-
DHH
Yes
Yes
Lex Fridman
… you interact with a computer.
… you interact with a computer.
DHH
Yes. And it’s been so stale.
Yes. And it’s been so stale.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it has.
Yeah, it has.
DHH
The macOS we have today is scarcely different from the macOS we had 10 years ago. In fact, it’s worse in many ways because Apple continues to chokehold the control on users. They don’t want them to install software that they haven’t already said good- … to go for. They don’t want users to reconfigure their hotkeys without doing it manually. They didn’t want to change the 500-millisecond animation switching workspaces. It is an infuriatingly locked-down computer. Now, to Apple’s credit, it’s a pretty good computer for being locked down, but I don’t want a locked-down computer. I wanna own my computer. Better yet, I wanna mutate my computer, and this is where the agentic age needs a new operating system.
The macOS we have today is scarcely different from the macOS we had 10 years ago. In fact, it’s worse in many ways because Apple continues to chokehold the control on users. They don’t want them to install software that they haven’t already said good- … to go for. They don’t want users to reconfigure their hotkeys without doing it manually. They didn’t want to change the 500-millisecond animation switching workspaces. It is an infuriatingly locked-down computer. Now, to Apple’s credit, it’s a pretty good computer for being locked down, but I don’t want a locked-down computer. I wanna own my computer. Better yet, I wanna mutate my computer, and this is where the agentic age needs a new operating system.
DHH
When you can vibe code whatever app comes to your mind, you should be able to vibe code your operating system. You should be able to change anything, how it looks, how it works, what panels are there, what are not there, and that requires Linux. As simple as that. There are no… None of the other two operating systems can deliver this.
When you can vibe code whatever app comes to your mind, you should be able to vibe code your operating system. You should be able to change anything, how it looks, how it works, what panels are there, what are not there, and that requires Linux. As simple as that. There are no… None of the other two operating systems can deliver this.
Lex Fridman
But can you speak to the, I think somebody asked you, like, “Who the hell are you to think you could do better than Ubuntu?” For example. Or like, “Why are you doing it when Ubuntu is already pretty good?” And your answer was, “I thought I could do better.” So can you speak to, this was on X, can you speak to, like, where the craziness comes from, thinking that you as one person or maybe with Ryan, you could start building something that’s going to be better than Ubuntu or Arch or any of this?
But can you speak to the, I think somebody asked you, like, “Who the hell are you to think you could do better than Ubuntu?” For example. Or like, “Why are you doing it when Ubuntu is already pretty good?” And your answer was, “I thought I could do better.” So can you speak to, this was on X, can you speak to, like, where the craziness comes from, thinking that you as one person or maybe with Ryan, you could start building something that’s going to be better than Ubuntu or Arch or any of this?
DHH
Well, I’ll say that it didn’t start quite as grandiose. When I got going with my Linux journey, I actually just started with Ubuntu, and I just built on top of it. Here’s a system that already does a lot of the things I wanted to do, and at least it’s Linux. So can I just build on top of it and make it more modern, make it actually look good, and have the programs I wanna use? I got, like, some version of that, and then I discovered that there’s seven layers deeper you could go, and as, the closer you get to the metal, the closer you get to the kernel, the closer you get to the individual packages and so forth, the more freedom you discover.
Well, I’ll say that it didn’t start quite as grandiose. When I got going with my Linux journey, I actually just started with Ubuntu, and I just built on top of it. Here’s a system that already does a lot of the things I wanted to do, and at least it’s Linux. So can I just build on top of it and make it more modern, make it actually look good, and have the programs I wanna use? I got, like, some version of that, and then I discovered that there’s seven layers deeper you could go, and as, the closer you get to the metal, the closer you get to the kernel, the closer you get to the individual packages and so forth, the more freedom you discover.
DHH
So as I discovered more and more freedom, I got more and more ambitious, and I realized, oh, surprise, surprise, I have strong opinions about how computers should work, how they should look, what programs should be installed, and whether they should take 42 minutes to install or 45 seconds. That’s the current world record, by the way. So if anyone installs Omarchy Quattro after this and can beat 45 seconds, take a screenshot, send it to me, and you’ll be the new holder of the world record.
So as I discovered more and more freedom, I got more and more ambitious, and I realized, oh, surprise, surprise, I have strong opinions about how computers should work, how they should look, what programs should be installed, and whether they should take 42 minutes to install or 45 seconds. That’s the current world record, by the way. So if anyone installs Omarchy Quattro after this and can beat 45 seconds, take a screenshot, send it to me, and you’ll be the new holder of the world record.
Lex Fridman
When—how long ago did you cross the 60-second mark?
When—how long ago did you cross the 60-second mark?
DHH
It’s funny because it’s like that the old limit on, what was it? It was a four-minute mile or something- … like that in 1952- … that people thought was impossible for humans to beat. Then one guy beats it, and literally within the next few months, three more guys do, right? So we had this goal. I originally had the goal, it was two minutes.
It’s funny because it’s like that the old limit on, what was it? It was a four-minute mile or something- … like that in 1952- … that people thought was impossible for humans to beat. Then one guy beats it, and literally within the next few months, three more guys do, right? So we had this goal. I originally had the goal, it was two minutes.
DHH
And then we beat two minutes, and I’m like, “Well, if we beat two minutes, why can’t we beat one minute?” And I remember thinking like, “That’d be crazy. You can’t install a modern operating system in one minute when they’re all…” If the other ones are taking 42 minutes, right? Like Apple, full of a lot of smart people, like, it took 42 minutes, so that’s gotta be the bar. No, no, it’s not the bar because there’s no speed limit. Like, none of the things you take for granted are fixed pillars of reality in almost any case. Until you get down to the seven gigabytes per second that drive is able to transfer, you’ve not reached the limit yet, so you should just keep pushing. And of course, then it becomes a game in itself and a satisfaction itself.
And then we beat two minutes, and I’m like, “Well, if we beat two minutes, why can’t we beat one minute?” And I remember thinking like, “That’d be crazy. You can’t install a modern operating system in one minute when they’re all…” If the other ones are taking 42 minutes, right? Like Apple, full of a lot of smart people, like, it took 42 minutes, so that’s gotta be the bar. No, no, it’s not the bar because there’s no speed limit. Like, none of the things you take for granted are fixed pillars of reality in almost any case. Until you get down to the seven gigabytes per second that drive is able to transfer, you’ve not reached the limit yet, so you should just keep pushing. And of course, then it becomes a game in itself and a satisfaction itself.
DHH
Every second I could shave off was an excitement. And when we broke the one-minute barrier, which was really only broken, I think, three weeks ago or something like that, maybe even two weeks ago, I just got crazy. And then I got a swarm of agents to run all these auto research loops of trying all these different theories on like, oh, if you change this thing, if you change that thing, what if you cut this out? What if you do things in parallel? What if while you were typing in your username, we start preloading packages into memory system, we can fire them in faster. And it becomes a fun game. And I think that’s how you should think about product development. It should be fun. You should, it should be frivolous.
Every second I could shave off was an excitement. And when we broke the one-minute barrier, which was really only broken, I think, three weeks ago or something like that, maybe even two weeks ago, I just got crazy. And then I got a swarm of agents to run all these auto research loops of trying all these different theories on like, oh, if you change this thing, if you change that thing, what if you cut this out? What if you do things in parallel? What if while you were typing in your username, we start preloading packages into memory system, we can fire them in faster. And it becomes a fun game. And I think that’s how you should think about product development. It should be fun. You should, it should be frivolous.
DHH
It should be trying to overshoot the target and making it so much better than what it, quote unquote, needs to be.
It should be trying to overshoot the target and making it so much better than what it, quote unquote, needs to be.
Lex Fridman
Especially now because you can move so quickly and you can try so many different approaches because of the agents.
Especially now because you can move so quickly and you can try so many different approaches because of the agents.
DHH
Yes, that just makes it more satisfying. But I think this was always true. If you look at the greatest Mercedes-Benz of all time, I think it was called the W126. I saw this wonderful documentary on it. It was steered by this guy who for years had worked in Mercedes’ department for safety. And suddenly he gets put in charge for the whole S-Class project, and he just puts in all of it. This is where you got the auto-retending seat belts and washers on the headlights and everything. This car was so overbuilt for the market.
Yes, that just makes it more satisfying. But I think this was always true. If you look at the greatest Mercedes-Benz of all time, I think it was called the W126. I saw this wonderful documentary on it. It was steered by this guy who for years had worked in Mercedes’ department for safety. And suddenly he gets put in charge for the whole S-Class project, and he just puts in all of it. This is where you got the auto-retending seat belts and washers on the headlights and everything. This car was so overbuilt for the market.
DHH
It was unbelievable. But you look at that and go like, “Well, I want that.” In just the same way that you look at a mechanical watch and go, “It could go down to 100 meters?” Or, or I think Rolex has one that can go down to 4,000 meters, the, the deep ocean, the deep diver ocean- … or whatever it’s called. No one outside of three people in the world, whoever buy that watch, will ever put it to the test. But don’t you wanna be the kind of person who is a patron of people who wanna push the human race that much forward? I want the fastest car breaking the speed limits. I want the diver watch that can go down the Mariana Trench. I want the operating system that can install in less than 60 seconds.
It was unbelievable. But you look at that and go like, “Well, I want that.” In just the same way that you look at a mechanical watch and go, “It could go down to 100 meters?” Or, or I think Rolex has one that can go down to 4,000 meters, the, the deep ocean, the deep diver ocean- … or whatever it’s called. No one outside of three people in the world, whoever buy that watch, will ever put it to the test. But don’t you wanna be the kind of person who is a patron of people who wanna push the human race that much forward? I want the fastest car breaking the speed limits. I want the diver watch that can go down the Mariana Trench. I want the operating system that can install in less than 60 seconds.
Lex Fridman
So from the individual level, I admire those people. I think everybody should strive for that. But also the consequences of that we should mention, like the pursuit of excellence, even when the metrics seem to be frivolous, the maybe unexpected consequences of that is other kinds of excellences, discoveries, innovations, and all that kind of stuff that has nothing to do with the speed.
So from the individual level, I admire those people. I think everybody should strive for that. But also the consequences of that we should mention, like the pursuit of excellence, even when the metrics seem to be frivolous, the maybe unexpected consequences of that is other kinds of excellences, discoveries, innovations, and all that kind of stuff that has nothing to do with the speed.
DHH
100%.
100%.
Lex Fridman
It’s discovery. It’s nice to have the metric that you’re chasing be the catalyst, the engine that drives innovation, because you’ll just discover. It’s the same reason you go to the moon, you go to Mars. It’s like, why? Who cares? Well, actually, the real thing is you’ll discover a lot about chemical propulsion. You’ll discover a lot about how humans can live for a long time in space. Maybe you’ll discover whole new ways of doing solar energy in space or data centers in space or whatever the hell.
It’s discovery. It’s nice to have the metric that you’re chasing be the catalyst, the engine that drives innovation, because you’ll just discover. It’s the same reason you go to the moon, you go to Mars. It’s like, why? Who cares? Well, actually, the real thing is you’ll discover a lot about chemical propulsion. You’ll discover a lot about how humans can live for a long time in space. Maybe you’ll discover whole new ways of doing solar energy in space or data centers in space or whatever the hell.
DHH
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
All kinds of… Maybe you’ll meet-
All kinds of… Maybe you’ll meet-
DHH
That’s right.
That’s right.
Lex Fridman
… aliens, but you never know. But setting a goal and chasing it, especially when it’s numerical, is really nice.
… aliens, but you never know. But setting a goal and chasing it, especially when it’s numerical, is really nice.
DHH
And setting a grand goal is even better. When you refuse to just do what’s practical and you strive for what’s slightly beyond plausible, that’s when the magic happens. And we should be going all in on that. This is one of the reasons… And in fact, to some degree, this specific goal was motivated by seeing others do this. I mean, Elon is the singular individual in this conversation. The guy is so out there in his goals. They seem so preposterous at first glance. I’ve certainly considered them preposterous on many glances. And then you realize that they come true sometimes. Maybe not always on schedule, and so what? So what? So we didn’t get the self-driving car on schedule. I gave Elon a lot of shit for that back in ’17.
And setting a grand goal is even better. When you refuse to just do what’s practical and you strive for what’s slightly beyond plausible, that’s when the magic happens. And we should be going all in on that. This is one of the reasons… And in fact, to some degree, this specific goal was motivated by seeing others do this. I mean, Elon is the singular individual in this conversation. The guy is so out there in his goals. They seem so preposterous at first glance. I’ve certainly considered them preposterous on many glances. And then you realize that they come true sometimes. Maybe not always on schedule, and so what? So what? So we didn’t get the self-driving car on schedule. I gave Elon a lot of shit for that back in ’17.
DHH
But now it’s here, and who would have gotten us here except for the person who thought it was possible in ’17, who is so impatient with reality that the sheer force is just gonna propel that reality to the place he wants it to be. I think that’s deeply inspiring, and we need these kinds of goalposts to be moved. We need someone to run the four-minute mile, so the rest of us realize, “Well, okay, but I guess I can run it quicker.” That’s what I try to strive for, and I really strive for with Omarchy because it’s just more fun to live that way, to have high aspirations and ambitions. And I will say I’ve actually changed my mind on that a little bit. I spent quite a lot of time speaking the other book that there are a lot of people who don’t actually need those ambitions.
But now it’s here, and who would have gotten us here except for the person who thought it was possible in ’17, who is so impatient with reality that the sheer force is just gonna propel that reality to the place he wants it to be. I think that’s deeply inspiring, and we need these kinds of goalposts to be moved. We need someone to run the four-minute mile, so the rest of us realize, “Well, okay, but I guess I can run it quicker.” That’s what I try to strive for, and I really strive for with Omarchy because it’s just more fun to live that way, to have high aspirations and ambitions. And I will say I’ve actually changed my mind on that a little bit. I spent quite a lot of time speaking the other book that there are a lot of people who don’t actually need those ambitions.
DHH
And I also– That’s also true. We don’t want 8 billion Elons running around the world. Would be rather crazy, I think. But I’ve come to realize that for entrepreneurs, it’s healthy to have suitable chunky goals. The idea of just running the Italian restaurant can’t just be that. It should be maybe I just run the one Italian restaurant, but I make the best damn pizza possible. I make the most delicious Parmesan. We have to strive for excellence to muster the motivation to keep going.
And I also– That’s also true. We don’t want 8 billion Elons running around the world. Would be rather crazy, I think. But I’ve come to realize that for entrepreneurs, it’s healthy to have suitable chunky goals. The idea of just running the Italian restaurant can’t just be that. It should be maybe I just run the one Italian restaurant, but I make the best damn pizza possible. I make the most delicious Parmesan. We have to strive for excellence to muster the motivation to keep going.
Lex Fridman
And yeah, to dare to think big like you could build a Linux-
And yeah, to dare to think big like you could build a Linux-
Voice prompting vs typing
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
… distribution. Is there some stuff you remember about what it took to get us to be so fast? You mentioned a few things that were, the agents were discovering.
… distribution. Is there some stuff you remember about what it took to get us to be so fast? You mentioned a few things that were, the agents were discovering.
DHH
One of the things was to treat the lag of human input as an opportunity to preload. So there’s five questions you answer when you set up an Omarchy machine. So it’s doing stuff in the background. We’re doing stuff in the background. And that was one of the things I didn’t even consider, which is, I mean, the oldest trick in the book. All sorts of video games for a long time have done this, where you let the player interact with something, and then you do preloading and so forth in the background. So it’s an age-old technique, but I just hadn’t thought about it for an installer.
One of the things was to treat the lag of human input as an opportunity to preload. So there’s five questions you answer when you set up an Omarchy machine. So it’s doing stuff in the background. We’re doing stuff in the background. And that was one of the things I didn’t even consider, which is, I mean, the oldest trick in the book. All sorts of video games for a long time have done this, where you let the player interact with something, and then you do preloading and so forth in the background. So it’s an age-old technique, but I just hadn’t thought about it for an installer.
DHH
I thought, first you ask the user some questions about their password and their username and their time zone and so forth, and then you do the work, when, in fact, you could preload that. Now, the other things were just a bunch of other tweaks to how the installer itself was doing things in a certain order. Some of them was also just shrinking it. The last version of Omarchy was 7.5 gigabytes, and a lot of the time we’re down to now is literally decompressing compressed package files. That’s the bulk of what the- is on the ISO, and that’s the bulk of the install time. So by shrinking it down to, I think we’re at 5.85 gigabytes now, a pretty chunky reduction, it almost literally translated one-to-one, and I did some really interesting things there.
I thought, first you ask the user some questions about their password and their username and their time zone and so forth, and then you do the work, when, in fact, you could preload that. Now, the other things were just a bunch of other tweaks to how the installer itself was doing things in a certain order. Some of them was also just shrinking it. The last version of Omarchy was 7.5 gigabytes, and a lot of the time we’re down to now is literally decompressing compressed package files. That’s the bulk of what the- is on the ISO, and that’s the bulk of the install time. So by shrinking it down to, I think we’re at 5.85 gigabytes now, a pretty chunky reduction, it almost literally translated one-to-one, and I did some really interesting things there.
DHH
So Omarchy uses the JetBrains font, which is an awesome font, beautiful font, and actually a font I didn’t like at first glance, but then it was the only font I could get to look perfect in Mitchell Hashimoto’s Ghostty. Ghostty, for whatever reason, did not wanna render my beloved Bitstream Vera Sans just the way I was used to it. Mm-hmm. But it rendered this JetBrains font perfectly, so I switched over. But it… The standard package for JetBrains font on Arch is 200 megabytes because it includes all these variations and all these subtypes and whatever. And I realized, like, we’re not using any of that. We’re using the monospace version in this one Nerd Font patched edition. Do you know how big that is? I think it’s 16 megabytes. Hmm.
So Omarchy uses the JetBrains font, which is an awesome font, beautiful font, and actually a font I didn’t like at first glance, but then it was the only font I could get to look perfect in Mitchell Hashimoto’s Ghostty. Ghostty, for whatever reason, did not wanna render my beloved Bitstream Vera Sans just the way I was used to it. Mm-hmm. But it rendered this JetBrains font perfectly, so I switched over. But it… The standard package for JetBrains font on Arch is 200 megabytes because it includes all these variations and all these subtypes and whatever. And I realized, like, we’re not using any of that. We’re using the monospace version in this one Nerd Font patched edition. Do you know how big that is? I think it’s 16 megabytes. Hmm.
DHH
So I simply just came up with a new package, the slim version- Mm-hmm … of the JetBrains package. Nice. And there, right there, I saved 180 megabytes. I just went through and did that a bunch of times. We did that with the NVIDIA drivers too. So the NVIDIA drivers, when they came straight off the, I think the Arch repo, were not compressed with the most extreme form of compression, which I think called ZSTD, which is a really slow form of compression. It’s slow to create the archive, but if you’re building a package- Hmm … you have all the time in the world if that means you can then shrink the ISO. So on just the two NVIDIA packages, I think we saved 200 megabytes. Mm-hmm. So what I loved about this was I imagined myself being a car designer at McLaren.
So I simply just came up with a new package, the slim version- Mm-hmm … of the JetBrains package. Nice. And there, right there, I saved 180 megabytes. I just went through and did that a bunch of times. We did that with the NVIDIA drivers too. So the NVIDIA drivers, when they came straight off the, I think the Arch repo, were not compressed with the most extreme form of compression, which I think called ZSTD, which is a really slow form of compression. It’s slow to create the archive, but if you’re building a package- Hmm … you have all the time in the world if that means you can then shrink the ISO. So on just the two NVIDIA packages, I think we saved 200 megabytes. Mm-hmm. So what I loved about this was I imagined myself being a car designer at McLaren.
DHH
So McLaren makes some of the lightest super sports cars in the world right now, and they are absolutely obsessed with shaving every damn last gram off their cars. That’s why even a new 750S McLaren is just way lighter than the competition. They use a carbon fiber monocoque, and that helps them over like Ferrari, for example, that uses aluminum. But they also just have this obsession with weight, and I would see this interview with the McLaren folks talking to some journalist just going over, “Yeah, we saved 370 grams off that one.” And I just went, “Wait, what? There’s someone on a car that weighs maybe 1,040 kilos or 1,380 or something. They’re worrying about 370 grams?” Yeah. What obsessed maniacs. Yeah. I love them. Yeah. I want that in my life.
So McLaren makes some of the lightest super sports cars in the world right now, and they are absolutely obsessed with shaving every damn last gram off their cars. That’s why even a new 750S McLaren is just way lighter than the competition. They use a carbon fiber monocoque, and that helps them over like Ferrari, for example, that uses aluminum. But they also just have this obsession with weight, and I would see this interview with the McLaren folks talking to some journalist just going over, “Yeah, we saved 370 grams off that one.” And I just went, “Wait, what? There’s someone on a car that weighs maybe 1,040 kilos or 1,380 or something. They’re worrying about 370 grams?” Yeah. What obsessed maniacs. Yeah. I love them. Yeah. I want that in my life.
DHH
I want a McLaren just for that reason. So I thought in that moment as I was shaving individual megabytes off the packages, man, I’m kinda like a McLaren car developer here, even though I mean, we haven’t even completed that work. The package could shrink even more. But this is actually this other conflict that we’ve had with Omarchy and the traditional Linux community is bloat. This idea that it’s actually not kosher in certain circles to ship with pre-installed software because who are you to make decisions about what programs people should use? And I’m like, “Dude, it’s in the fucking name. It’s called Omarchy because the Oma part is short for omakase, which literally means chef’s choice. I’m the chef.
I want a McLaren just for that reason. So I thought in that moment as I was shaving individual megabytes off the packages, man, I’m kinda like a McLaren car developer here, even though I mean, we haven’t even completed that work. The package could shrink even more. But this is actually this other conflict that we’ve had with Omarchy and the traditional Linux community is bloat. This idea that it’s actually not kosher in certain circles to ship with pre-installed software because who are you to make decisions about what programs people should use? And I’m like, “Dude, it’s in the fucking name. It’s called Omarchy because the Oma part is short for omakase, which literally means chef’s choice. I’m the chef.
DHH
I’m making the choices, and this is the collection of applications I think is awesome,” which by the way has a video editor. It ships with OBS to do your recording. It’s just in there. Yeah. OBS is pre-installed. Nice. Kdenlive is a video editor, timeline editor, which is great. I edit all my videos with that. And then I made my own clip editor. You talked about the thing with syncing up. Yeah. I had this thing with clips, so I would do a podcast or whatever. I need a clip for X. And it’s kind of a hassle to use Kdenlive or other timeline editors, so I made Omacut. Omacut is included too. Omacut, cool. It’s just for making clips, and you can drive the whole thing with keyboard. So you can go to just the right time mark.
I’m making the choices, and this is the collection of applications I think is awesome,” which by the way has a video editor. It ships with OBS to do your recording. It’s just in there. Yeah. OBS is pre-installed. Nice. Kdenlive is a video editor, timeline editor, which is great. I edit all my videos with that. And then I made my own clip editor. You talked about the thing with syncing up. Yeah. I had this thing with clips, so I would do a podcast or whatever. I need a clip for X. And it’s kind of a hassle to use Kdenlive or other timeline editors, so I made Omacut. Omacut is included too. Omacut, cool. It’s just for making clips, and you can drive the whole thing with keyboard. So you can go to just the right time mark.
DHH
and then you can hit Control + Space. It moves the clip line to that line. Then you go to the end of the clip, and you hit Alt + Space, and it moves the end line. Nice. And then you hit Control + S, and it saves. Nice. I can make clips so damn fast now with Omacut. It’s amazing. But it has all the software on it. It has Neovim on it. It has Herdr on it. It has Tmux. It has a terminal. It has a bunch of themes. It has a bunch of background images, the best ones I could pick out. That takes up some space. It should because this is not supposed to be this just barren landscape where you have to reconstruct everything. This is supposed to be a productive system the minute you unpack it. What is it built in?
and then you can hit Control + Space. It moves the clip line to that line. Then you go to the end of the clip, and you hit Alt + Space, and it moves the end line. Nice. And then you hit Control + S, and it saves. Nice. I can make clips so damn fast now with Omacut. It’s amazing. But it has all the software on it. It has Neovim on it. It has Herdr on it. It has Tmux. It has a terminal. It has a bunch of themes. It has a bunch of background images, the best ones I could pick out. That takes up some space. It should because this is not supposed to be this just barren landscape where you have to reconstruct everything. This is supposed to be a productive system the minute you unpack it. What is it built in?
DHH
So it’s actually mostly built in Bash for the Linux configuration part. Right. Bash is a great language for that. It is made for that really, for system administration. It also has its limitations. You should not build everything in Bash.
So it’s actually mostly built in Bash for the Linux configuration part. Right. Bash is a great language for that. It is made for that really, for system administration. It also has its limitations. You should not build everything in Bash.
Lex Fridman
How are agents with generating Bash? Pretty good?
How are agents with generating Bash? Pretty good?
DHH
Oh, amazing.
Oh, amazing.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
DHH
Except for one thing, and I have to smack the agents over the back of the head every single time I catch it, and remind it to look at the agent’s MD file, because I will have an instruction in there not to make early exits. The agents love to have preconditions instead of fully expanded conditionals. I like something that says, “If this, then do that.” Agents like to have precondition or exit, another precondition or exit.
Except for one thing, and I have to smack the agents over the back of the head every single time I catch it, and remind it to look at the agent’s MD file, because I will have an instruction in there not to make early exits. The agents love to have preconditions instead of fully expanded conditionals. I like something that says, “If this, then do that.” Agents like to have precondition or exit, another precondition or exit.
DHH
And then it falls down to the final thing it actually wants to do. I hate that style. So except for that, it’s gotten shockingly, dramatically, awesomely good, to the point where when we talked last time, we talked about how I would ask the agent for a Bash thing, and then I would type it in myself, and I kinda wouldn’t remember. And then I took the effort to make sure that all that competence wasn’t draining out of my fingers, so I actually learned how to write Bash myself, and now I’m not writing any Bash myself. I have not written any Bash myself for probably a couple months, because the agents have just gotten so good, that if you give them the few pointers on style, and occasionally put pushback on complexity… This is… I tweeted about this a couple of days ago.
And then it falls down to the final thing it actually wants to do. I hate that style. So except for that, it’s gotten shockingly, dramatically, awesomely good, to the point where when we talked last time, we talked about how I would ask the agent for a Bash thing, and then I would type it in myself, and I kinda wouldn’t remember. And then I took the effort to make sure that all that competence wasn’t draining out of my fingers, so I actually learned how to write Bash myself, and now I’m not writing any Bash myself. I have not written any Bash myself for probably a couple months, because the agents have just gotten so good, that if you give them the few pointers on style, and occasionally put pushback on complexity… This is… I tweeted about this a couple of days ago.
DHH
It blows my mind how often an agent can do something, say it’s done, have the work reviewed by another agent- … they say it’s done, and then I go like, “Eh, looks a little too complicated for me.” And then it’ll go like, “Oh, yeah, you’re right. You’re right. I totally overcomplicated this,” and it’ll cut it in half. I’m like, “Couldn’t it just do this, like, from the outset?” And then someone else reminded me, humans are the same way. If you work on something and someone else reviews it and they just are like, “Eh, it looks a little complicated,” quite often you’re able to go like, “Ah, you’re right.”
It blows my mind how often an agent can do something, say it’s done, have the work reviewed by another agent- … they say it’s done, and then I go like, “Eh, looks a little too complicated for me.” And then it’ll go like, “Oh, yeah, you’re right. You’re right. I totally overcomplicated this,” and it’ll cut it in half. I’m like, “Couldn’t it just do this, like, from the outset?” And then someone else reminded me, humans are the same way. If you work on something and someone else reviews it and they just are like, “Eh, it looks a little complicated,” quite often you’re able to go like, “Ah, you’re right.”
Lex Fridman
See, that just… Those little indications to me show that the programmer is still needed, that intuition, ’cause I think, what did you say? I have a sense of the landscape of the code.
See, that just… Those little indications to me show that the programmer is still needed, that intuition, ’cause I think, what did you say? I have a sense of the landscape of the code.
DHH
When I build something like Omarchy, I do look at the code. I look at the shape.
When I build something like Omarchy, I do look at the code. I look at the shape.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
And I look at the proportions.
And I look at the proportions.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
Like, I don’t have to chisel everything myself anymore. This is, again, when I’m flattering myself for… Not one moment I’m a McLaren auto engineer, and the next moment I’m a da Vinci, working with his whole studio of students- … who are doing all the chiseling on the, the fine marble, right? And he goes like, “Ah, no, the proportions are not quite right.” That’s how it feels working with agents now, that I can give feedback like an editor.
Like, I don’t have to chisel everything myself anymore. This is, again, when I’m flattering myself for… Not one moment I’m a McLaren auto engineer, and the next moment I’m a da Vinci, working with his whole studio of students- … who are doing all the chiseling on the, the fine marble, right? And he goes like, “Ah, no, the proportions are not quite right.” That’s how it feels working with agents now, that I can give feedback like an editor.
DHH
That, do you know what? I’m not gonna write everything myself, but I can tell you when the argument doesn’t land. I can tell you when the shape isn’t proportional to the problem, or when it just feels like it’s too complicated. And shockingly often, it just works. It’s like the early days, where the joke was, “Don’t make mistakes.” I don’t think you have to tell the agents that anymore, because now the harnesses are so good, they run automated testing. They get that feedback. But you actually do have to tell them, “Make it simpler.”
That, do you know what? I’m not gonna write everything myself, but I can tell you when the argument doesn’t land. I can tell you when the shape isn’t proportional to the problem, or when it just feels like it’s too complicated. And shockingly often, it just works. It’s like the early days, where the joke was, “Don’t make mistakes.” I don’t think you have to tell the agents that anymore, because now the harnesses are so good, they run automated testing. They get that feedback. But you actually do have to tell them, “Make it simpler.”
Lex Fridman
Do you use voice at all for the interaction? Or are you… How much are you typing? How much are you-
Do you use voice at all for the interaction? Or are you… How much are you typing? How much are you-
DHH
I type the whole thing. I actually, in Omarchy’s built-in Voxtype- … Audio transcription, and it’s actually really good. I just find that I don’t think that way, and it surprised myself that I don’t like to talk to the computer. I like when I’m in the car, but when I’m in front of the keyboard, I just wanna type. I also just love typing. Are you using the voice?
I type the whole thing. I actually, in Omarchy’s built-in Voxtype- … Audio transcription, and it’s actually really good. I just find that I don’t think that way, and it surprised myself that I don’t like to talk to the computer. I like when I’m in the car, but when I’m in front of the keyboard, I just wanna type. I also just love typing. Are you using the voice?
Lex Fridman
I’m an introvert who doesn’t like social interaction- … or speaking. And-
I’m an introvert who doesn’t like social interaction- … or speaking. And-
DHH
I think that’s part of mine too.
I think that’s part of mine too.
Lex Fridman
But, like, for me, for some reason, voice is really powerful. I want to give this… So I run with this thing. It’s called Plaud. So I just hook it up on my, you know on my T-shirt here.
But, like, for me, for some reason, voice is really powerful. I want to give this… So I run with this thing. It’s called Plaud. So I just hook it up on my, you know on my T-shirt here.
Lex Fridman
You press a button, it starts recording. And this is actually more, in terms of flow, much better experience than behind a computer. And I save, well, usually it’s agent generated problems that I wanna really talk through. And so I write, I speak a long prompt, like, and a lot of it, it’s like stream of consciousness reasoning. So I’ll sometimes just change my mind about a design, but all of that is in there, and then I have an LLM that processes that. With Plaud, there’s a, obviously an API. You can grab it, transcribe it, clean up the transcript, ’cause you want it to be… ‘Cause I’m referring to files. I’m referring to technical concepts, like files and functions- … and so on, that you wanna make sure the transcription, the-
You press a button, it starts recording. And this is actually more, in terms of flow, much better experience than behind a computer. And I save, well, usually it’s agent generated problems that I wanna really talk through. And so I write, I speak a long prompt, like, and a lot of it, it’s like stream of consciousness reasoning. So I’ll sometimes just change my mind about a design, but all of that is in there, and then I have an LLM that processes that. With Plaud, there’s a, obviously an API. You can grab it, transcribe it, clean up the transcript, ’cause you want it to be… ‘Cause I’m referring to files. I’m referring to technical concepts, like files and functions- … and so on, that you wanna make sure the transcription, the-
Lex Fridman
… the speech-to-text gets correctly. So you wanna have a dictionary. You want it to be aware of the code base when you process the files. And then you have this gigantic thing that’s often 10, 15, 20 minute me discussing the full design, and I find that to be really, really powerful. Because it doesn’t have the problem of overspecification because of how much stream of consciousness thinking the system has about what you’re imagining. And this is really good for the early steps of a design. Like, if I wanted to build Omarchy from scratch, the first stages, I talk through. It could be an hour. There’s been prompts that I had for an hour, and I’m just running and-
… the speech-to-text gets correctly. So you wanna have a dictionary. You want it to be aware of the code base when you process the files. And then you have this gigantic thing that’s often 10, 15, 20 minute me discussing the full design, and I find that to be really, really powerful. Because it doesn’t have the problem of overspecification because of how much stream of consciousness thinking the system has about what you’re imagining. And this is really good for the early steps of a design. Like, if I wanted to build Omarchy from scratch, the first stages, I talk through. It could be an hour. There’s been prompts that I had for an hour, and I’m just running and-
DHH
That’s amazing.
That’s amazing.
Lex Fridman
… and speaking. I highly recommend people try a voice-based-
… and speaking. I highly recommend people try a voice-based-
DHH
So-
So-
Lex Fridman
… speaking for prolonged periods of time.
… speaking for prolonged periods of time.
DHH
I haven’t actually-
I haven’t actually-
Lex Fridman
As opposed to very specific…
As opposed to very specific…
DHH
… I haven’t, yeah, I haven’t used it like that, and maybe that’s how I’m using it wrong. I try to just type or speak two sentences, and then I get a little frustrated that I could’ve typed that just as fast, maybe. But I have not tried this whole thing of just talking continuously for 20 minutes.
… I haven’t, yeah, I haven’t used it like that, and maybe that’s how I’m using it wrong. I try to just type or speak two sentences, and then I get a little frustrated that I could’ve typed that just as fast, maybe. But I have not tried this whole thing of just talking continuously for 20 minutes.
Lex Fridman
And especially you because you speak very fast.
And especially you because you speak very fast.
DHH
Yeah. No, I could see it. I think because the reason I’ve been trying to do it for things like replying to emails, and it got to a point where I thought it could help. And it sort of did, but then it would make a small mistake, and I’d have to correct the mistake. But if you’re doing stream of consciousness to an LLM who doesn’t care about all this other stuff anyway— … that probably works way better.
Yeah. No, I could see it. I think because the reason I’ve been trying to do it for things like replying to emails, and it got to a point where I thought it could help. And it sort of did, but then it would make a small mistake, and I’d have to correct the mistake. But if you’re doing stream of consciousness to an LLM who doesn’t care about all this other stuff anyway— … that probably works way better.
Lex Fridman
There’s two things you have to do. One, okay, you have the raw audio, transcribes it. I use ElevenLabs for transcription. They’re probably the best speech-to-text model. There’s still mistakes there, so you need to have a prompt that has access to a dictionary and to a lot of—
There’s two things you have to do. One, okay, you have the raw audio, transcribes it. I use ElevenLabs for transcription. They’re probably the best speech-to-text model. There’s still mistakes there, so you need to have a prompt that has access to a dictionary and to a lot of—
DHH
How do you build the dictionary?
How do you build the dictionary?
Lex Fridman
First of all, there’s a dictionary of terms that are relevant to you. Then have it aware of… So you have an agent that looks through, when you’re talking about code, looks through your entire code base for key terms that you use often. Also, when we’re talking about messaging, Gmail, and WhatsApp, and so on, it’s aware of all the people and common terms that you get wrong.
First of all, there’s a dictionary of terms that are relevant to you. Then have it aware of… So you have an agent that looks through, when you’re talking about code, looks through your entire code base for key terms that you use often. Also, when we’re talking about messaging, Gmail, and WhatsApp, and so on, it’s aware of all the people and common terms that you get wrong.
DHH
You’ve really gone deep in this.
You’ve really gone deep in this.
Lex Fridman
That, to me, is a problem that needs to be solved-
That, to me, is a problem that needs to be solved-
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
… because one of the issues you probably have with speech-to-text is that it makes mistakes sometimes.
… because one of the issues you probably have with speech-to-text is that it makes mistakes sometimes.
DHH
Correct. Then I can’t use it for dictating an email.
Correct. Then I can’t use it for dictating an email.
Lex Fridman
Right. If it never makes mistakes, you-
Right. If it never makes mistakes, you-
DHH
Then it would be more appealing.
Then it would be more appealing.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and you are okay being not perfectly real time, actually. You’re okay waiting five seconds-
Yeah, and you are okay being not perfectly real time, actually. You’re okay waiting five seconds-
DHH
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
… potentially. I don’t know what your use case is. I’m okay waiting five seconds- … 10 seconds for it to process everything.
… potentially. I don’t know what your use case is. I’m okay waiting five seconds- … 10 seconds for it to process everything.
DHH
You gotta vibe code this into an app that does all of this such that-
You gotta vibe code this into an app that does all of this such that-
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
DHH
… it just works.
… it just works.
Lex Fridman
I think I mentioned to you offline that it’s very surprising to me that translation is not done perfectly.
I think I mentioned to you offline that it’s very surprising to me that translation is not done perfectly.
DHH
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Speech-to-speech translation.
Speech-to-speech translation.
DHH
It seems like you’ve gotten much closer to the best of what’s possible by putting all these things together.
It seems like you’ve gotten much closer to the best of what’s possible by putting all these things together.
Best AI coding models
Lex Fridman
But, you know, when you’re shipping that kind of stuff, you do have to start thinking about latency.
But, you know, when you’re shipping that kind of stuff, you do have to start thinking about latency.
DHH
Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of good. I mean, if you’re suddenly enabling something people wouldn’t be doing before at all, it’s okay to take five seconds longer. I think this is one of the areas that Steve Jobs was so good, that he realized, like, the first iPhone was terrible in all sorts of ways, right? Absolutely horrendously slow data connection, very underpowered, all the things. But the product was so compelling that it just didn’t matter. You’d be shipping too late if you waited until everything was just right, just perfect. If you’re solving a problem that people currently don’t have a solution for, they’re willing to give it five seconds.
Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of good. I mean, if you’re suddenly enabling something people wouldn’t be doing before at all, it’s okay to take five seconds longer. I think this is one of the areas that Steve Jobs was so good, that he realized, like, the first iPhone was terrible in all sorts of ways, right? Absolutely horrendously slow data connection, very underpowered, all the things. But the product was so compelling that it just didn’t matter. You’d be shipping too late if you waited until everything was just right, just perfect. If you’re solving a problem that people currently don’t have a solution for, they’re willing to give it five seconds.
DHH
If you’re in a competitive market, yeah, okay, it’s different. But that means the problem’s already solved, and you don’t need to solve it.
If you’re in a competitive market, yeah, okay, it’s different. But that means the problem’s already solved, and you don’t need to solve it.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. Well, I do think there’s a few… So, like, Whisper flow is really good. A few people have stepped up that speech-to-text thing.
Mm-hmm. Well, I do think there’s a few… So, like, Whisper flow is really good. A few people have stepped up that speech-to-text thing.
DHH
Yeah. Yeah, we’re using VoxType.
Yeah. Yeah, we’re using VoxType.
Lex Fridman
VoxType?
VoxType?
DHH
But others have-
But others have-
Lex Fridman
VoxType is open source?
VoxType is open source?
DHH
It is. It’s just using one of the open models. I forget which parrot model it’s using or something like that. It works quite well for short commands, so I have used it for that. I think you just hold down F9- … and it starts a dictation.
It is. It’s just using one of the open models. I forget which parrot model it’s using or something like that. It works quite well for short commands, so I have used it for that. I think you just hold down F9- … and it starts a dictation.
Lex Fridman
Oh, so it’s already in there?
Oh, so it’s already in there?
DHH
You just have to get online. It’ll offer you to install- … the VoxType package. Because the VoxType package includes a model that’s 150 megabytes, and I was like, “Ah.” “I don’t know if I can carry that.” So- … we don’t have that in there by default, but we have the option set up. And I actually just yesterday was thinking we really need to combine all of these things. So Omarchy Quattro is truly amazing as a malleable operating system where you can add functionality to it just by talking to your agent.
You just have to get online. It’ll offer you to install- … the VoxType package. Because the VoxType package includes a model that’s 150 megabytes, and I was like, “Ah.” “I don’t know if I can carry that.” So- … we don’t have that in there by default, but we have the option set up. And I actually just yesterday was thinking we really need to combine all of these things. So Omarchy Quattro is truly amazing as a malleable operating system where you can add functionality to it just by talking to your agent.
DHH
But that’s exactly what we should be doing. There’s a lot of people who would find it very natural just to talk to their computer and say, “Hey, can you make me a stock panel? I wanna track Apple and Dell,” and just see the agent go off through, entirely through voice, both in terms of the input and in terms of the output, and then your operating system just changes. This was the vision of Iron Man and Jarvis and-
But that’s exactly what we should be doing. There’s a lot of people who would find it very natural just to talk to their computer and say, “Hey, can you make me a stock panel? I wanna track Apple and Dell,” and just see the agent go off through, entirely through voice, both in terms of the input and in terms of the output, and then your operating system just changes. This was the vision of Iron Man and Jarvis and-
DHH
… bespoke applications that just appear magically. I’m thinking the area of AI I find truly intriguing are these live gaming models, I don’t know if you’ve seen that, where the AI’s inventing literally the next frame, but you can actually play the game. And I think if they’re able to do that, why can’t we do that with our operating system? Why can’t we just talk to it and ask it to be a different way or change, and it’ll all just change? I think this, by the way, is one of the other breakthroughs that is going to lead to the total domination of Linux. The agents have taken all the hardship out of diagnosing Linux systems and turned the fact that Linux produces these overly specific, totally arcane error messages into its greatest advantage.
… bespoke applications that just appear magically. I’m thinking the area of AI I find truly intriguing are these live gaming models, I don’t know if you’ve seen that, where the AI’s inventing literally the next frame, but you can actually play the game. And I think if they’re able to do that, why can’t we do that with our operating system? Why can’t we just talk to it and ask it to be a different way or change, and it’ll all just change? I think this, by the way, is one of the other breakthroughs that is going to lead to the total domination of Linux. The agents have taken all the hardship out of diagnosing Linux systems and turned the fact that Linux produces these overly specific, totally arcane error messages into its greatest advantage.
DHH
When Linux has an issue, the agent can take that very specific error message that makes no sense to a normal human and correlate it with the fact that the agent was pre-trained on 40 million lines of Linux code, so it knows exactly where to look and dial it down. I have not had a single problem on my Linux machine since the beginning of this year that an agent could not diagnose. That was not true a year and a half ago. A year and a half ago, I was still searching on forums- … to find answers to esoteric questions.
When Linux has an issue, the agent can take that very specific error message that makes no sense to a normal human and correlate it with the fact that the agent was pre-trained on 40 million lines of Linux code, so it knows exactly where to look and dial it down. I have not had a single problem on my Linux machine since the beginning of this year that an agent could not diagnose. That was not true a year and a half ago. A year and a half ago, I was still searching on forums- … to find answers to esoteric questions.
DHH
Now the agents know the source code of not just the Linux operating system, but every single piece of software I have on that box. The agent has access to the source code of all of it. In fact, this was one thing I built in just before we shipped. So once you set up your default agent- … Omarchy Quattro has a crash watcher. If any app on your machine crashes, it’ll pop up a little thing, ask you whether you want your AI to diagnose the problem.
Now the agents know the source code of not just the Linux operating system, but every single piece of software I have on that box. The agent has access to the source code of all of it. In fact, this was one thing I built in just before we shipped. So once you set up your default agent- … Omarchy Quattro has a crash watcher. If any app on your machine crashes, it’ll pop up a little thing, ask you whether you want your AI to diagnose the problem.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. That’s amazing.
Yeah. That’s amazing.
DHH
Unbelievable. I’ve seen things where there’s an error in some subsystem. Some… Not even Linux, just some app I installed. The agents start digging through the logs and look up systemd log. Then it checks out the damn source code. Of the application that crashed, pins down that it’s in this Rust file line 472 that there’s an unbounded, unwrapped variable that overflowed or whatever it is. Then offers you whether you wanna file a bug report with all this detail. I’ll give you one amazing anecdote. So I was working with this guy JDX, who’s working on mise. This, this package manager for fast-moving development tools. This is how we manage all the agent software and so forth. Normal package managers are not built to be updated seven times a day.
Unbelievable. I’ve seen things where there’s an error in some subsystem. Some… Not even Linux, just some app I installed. The agents start digging through the logs and look up systemd log. Then it checks out the damn source code. Of the application that crashed, pins down that it’s in this Rust file line 472 that there’s an unbounded, unwrapped variable that overflowed or whatever it is. Then offers you whether you wanna file a bug report with all this detail. I’ll give you one amazing anecdote. So I was working with this guy JDX, who’s working on mise. This, this package manager for fast-moving development tools. This is how we manage all the agent software and so forth. Normal package managers are not built to be updated seven times a day.
DHH
And all of these agent harnesses are updated about seven times a day, so we needed an out-of-band package manager, and mise just turns out to be perfect for this. Anyway, it had a small bug. There was some race condition which agents are very good at finding because when you start running multiple agents at the same time, they will suss out all these race conditions you have in your underlying infrastructure that was never triggered by a human trying to do manual thing. So it finds this issue, right? I tell the agent, “Hey can you post this as a bug report to, to JDX’s GitHub?” And unfortunately, right before that, I had had to do a QA run on Omarchy itself with eight different agents. It had found 28 real issues-
And all of these agent harnesses are updated about seven times a day, so we needed an out-of-band package manager, and mise just turns out to be perfect for this. Anyway, it had a small bug. There was some race condition which agents are very good at finding because when you start running multiple agents at the same time, they will suss out all these race conditions you have in your underlying infrastructure that was never triggered by a human trying to do manual thing. So it finds this issue, right? I tell the agent, “Hey can you post this as a bug report to, to JDX’s GitHub?” And unfortunately, right before that, I had had to do a QA run on Omarchy itself with eight different agents. It had found 28 real issues-
DHH
… that it needed to file. Well, it went to GitHub and tried to file all 28 issues at the same time, which it did in about I don’t know, 12 seconds. GitHub, not unreasonably, marked that as probable spam and banned- … my Omarchy bot. And then I couldn’t do that. So I was blocked from the bot having access to GitHub, so I just told it, “Hey, do you know what? Just email JDX. Here’s his email address.” I had already set it up with hey.com- … an email address. We have a CLI that’s in beta right now.
… that it needed to file. Well, it went to GitHub and tried to file all 28 issues at the same time, which it did in about I don’t know, 12 seconds. GitHub, not unreasonably, marked that as probable spam and banned- … my Omarchy bot. And then I couldn’t do that. So I was blocked from the bot having access to GitHub, so I just told it, “Hey, do you know what? Just email JDX. Here’s his email address.” I had already set it up with hey.com- … an email address. We have a CLI that’s in beta right now.
DHH
So I set it up with that so it can send to email. That’s how it gives me reports about outstanding issues and, and PR. So it sends JDX this email about the bug it found, and he was like, “Wait, this is the first time I’ve gotten a bug report in unreleased software.” Because it had downloaded the source code to mise, saw that he had already fixed the bug, but that it would not fix the problem entirely in software they had not shipped yet. Pinpointed the problem, and he was like, “Damn it- … I got a bug report before we even cut a release.”
So I set it up with that so it can send to email. That’s how it gives me reports about outstanding issues and, and PR. So it sends JDX this email about the bug it found, and he was like, “Wait, this is the first time I’ve gotten a bug report in unreleased software.” Because it had downloaded the source code to mise, saw that he had already fixed the bug, but that it would not fix the problem entirely in software they had not shipped yet. Pinpointed the problem, and he was like, “Damn it- … I got a bug report before we even cut a release.”
Lex Fridman
That’s amazing.
That’s amazing.
DHH
Un-
Un-
Lex Fridman
That’s amazing
That’s amazing
DHH
… believable AGI levels of mind-blowing stuff.
… believable AGI levels of mind-blowing stuff.
Lex Fridman
And that was actually, y- if you remember, that was, that was an open question whether AI systems could debug well. That, that was kinda the, the, the thought that, yeah, sure, they can write code, but can they find issues and-
And that was actually, y- if you remember, that was, that was an open question whether AI systems could debug well. That, that was kinda the, the, the thought that, yeah, sure, they can write code, but can they find issues and-
DHH
They are so incredibly good at this, and this is actually interesting because I was on the perhaps same side of that, a little skeptical about can it reason about all these things. And Mikhail, who’s the CTO at Shopify, ran a scientific study on this. They had… And this was, I think, late last year or early this year, where he had agents go back through all the incidents, both outages and other problems that Shopify had had in production, trace that back to the PR that was merged, and find out whether PRs that had been reviewed by human or PRs that had been reviewed by agents were of higher quality. Well, lo and surprise-
They are so incredibly good at this, and this is actually interesting because I was on the perhaps same side of that, a little skeptical about can it reason about all these things. And Mikhail, who’s the CTO at Shopify, ran a scientific study on this. They had… And this was, I think, late last year or early this year, where he had agents go back through all the incidents, both outages and other problems that Shopify had had in production, trace that back to the PR that was merged, and find out whether PRs that had been reviewed by human or PRs that had been reviewed by agents were of higher quality. Well, lo and surprise-
DHH
… the PRs that have been reviewed by agents caused all fewer issues in production. And this was with models we had six months ago. At this point, 100% in the majority of domains we work in today, agents are better at finding bugs.
… the PRs that have been reviewed by agents caused all fewer issues in production. And this was with models we had six months ago. At this point, 100% in the majority of domains we work in today, agents are better at finding bugs.
Lex Fridman
So you now run agents all day. What stands out to you as the better model? Who’s currently winning? It seems to be changing constantly. Sol, Fable, Grok 4.6, Gemini, the Chinese OpenWay models.
So you now run agents all day. What stands out to you as the better model? Who’s currently winning? It seems to be changing constantly. Sol, Fable, Grok 4.6, Gemini, the Chinese OpenWay models.
DHH
What’s amazing to me is that you could rattle off so many different contenders. That this market is so wide open, that it does actually change back and forth, that we have real competition, that there are so many labs that are able to get either to the frontier or close to it. That, by the way, is remarkable. I still don’t fully understand that. But to answer your question, the best model in general right now is Fable. The second-best model, in my opinion, is Opus 5. But the tier just below Opus 5, and it’s not even that they’re always below, sometimes they’re ahead. I’ll get to that in a second. I would rank GPT Sol as very good.
What’s amazing to me is that you could rattle off so many different contenders. That this market is so wide open, that it does actually change back and forth, that we have real competition, that there are so many labs that are able to get either to the frontier or close to it. That, by the way, is remarkable. I still don’t fully understand that. But to answer your question, the best model in general right now is Fable. The second-best model, in my opinion, is Opus 5. But the tier just below Opus 5, and it’s not even that they’re always below, sometimes they’re ahead. I’ll get to that in a second. I would rank GPT Sol as very good.
DHH
Grok 4.6 I just started testing a few days ago. I had this wonderful test that I’ve set up by accident where I translated this Python library into Rust. The screensaver you just saw with all the cool animation?
Grok 4.6 I just started testing a few days ago. I had this wonderful test that I’ve set up by accident where I translated this Python library into Rust. The screensaver you just saw with all the cool animation?
Lex Fridman
Yep.
Yep.
DHH
That’s powered by a Python library called Terminal Text Effects. Really cool library. We’ve been using it since the first day of Omarchy. The problem with that is it’s written in Python, so when it starts up, especially on a laptop, and it runs in Python, it uses all of your CPU to do these effects, and therefore, it means it uses about 30 watts of energy, and it spins up your fans, and it drains your battery.
That’s powered by a Python library called Terminal Text Effects. Really cool library. We’ve been using it since the first day of Omarchy. The problem with that is it’s written in Python, so when it starts up, especially on a laptop, and it runs in Python, it uses all of your CPU to do these effects, and therefore, it means it uses about 30 watts of energy, and it spins up your fans, and it drains your battery.
DHH
Doesn’t really matter on a local computer, but it does matter on a laptop. So I thought, “Do you know what? This sounds like a problem for Rust.” So first I gave Fable the challenge, and all I told it was, “Here’s the source code for the Python library,” this TTE library that had a bunch of dependencies and so forth. “I want a Rust version of this with no dependencies, a single executable.” Like, that’s what Rust does. So basically, I want it in Rust. I want it to be pixel perfect, frame by frame, do a full analysis, don’t stop until you’re finished.
Doesn’t really matter on a local computer, but it does matter on a laptop. So I thought, “Do you know what? This sounds like a problem for Rust.” So first I gave Fable the challenge, and all I told it was, “Here’s the source code for the Python library,” this TTE library that had a bunch of dependencies and so forth. “I want a Rust version of this with no dependencies, a single executable.” Like, that’s what Rust does. So basically, I want it in Rust. I want it to be pixel perfect, frame by frame, do a full analysis, don’t stop until you’re finished.
Lex Fridman
Yep.
Yep.
DHH
That was the prompt.
That was the prompt.
Lex Fridman
Yep.
Yep.
DHH
I kid you not, in just under 45 minutes, it was like Am I heard all?
I kid you not, in just under 45 minutes, it was like Am I heard all?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
I’m finished. I’ve checked everything. I have reduced the startup time from 86 milliseconds to two milliseconds. I have sped up the execution time by 9.6 times, I believe it was. The executable is three megabytes. Do you wanna run it?
I’m finished. I’ve checked everything. I have reduced the startup time from 86 milliseconds to two milliseconds. I have sped up the execution time by 9.6 times, I believe it was. The executable is three megabytes. Do you wanna run it?
Lex Fridman
That’s awesome.
That’s awesome.
DHH
So I run it—
So I run it—
Lex Fridman
Oh, man.
Oh, man.
DHH
… and I don’t know why I’m surprised, because this translation job is something we’ve known for a while that AI is pretty good at, but it was still staggering to me that I could one-shot a full translation of a Python library I had been using for a year, that others had been using for much longer, and turn it into a Rust executable without knowing any Rust, without looking at the Rust code at all, and produce this executable that I then told the agent right after, “This is great. Ship it.” It packaged it up as a new package. It told me, “What do you want it to call?” “Uh, let’s call it TTFX. Let’s create a new Git repo.” It sets up the Git repo. “Let’s create a new package, build package for our build system.” It puts that up. “Let’s push it out.
… and I don’t know why I’m surprised, because this translation job is something we’ve known for a while that AI is pretty good at, but it was still staggering to me that I could one-shot a full translation of a Python library I had been using for a year, that others had been using for much longer, and turn it into a Rust executable without knowing any Rust, without looking at the Rust code at all, and produce this executable that I then told the agent right after, “This is great. Ship it.” It packaged it up as a new package. It told me, “What do you want it to call?” “Uh, let’s call it TTFX. Let’s create a new Git repo.” It sets up the Git repo. “Let’s create a new package, build package for our build system.” It puts that up. “Let’s push it out.
DHH
Let’s open the pull request to the Omarchy itself so we switch around from TTE, the Python implementation, to TTFX.” It does all of it, and I’m just sitting there. And again, I’m already at this point fully delirious with agent acceleration, and I still had to lean back and I go like, “This is AGI, isn’t it? This is what AGI looks like. If we have… If these moments are just what it is all the time, this is AGI.”
Let’s open the pull request to the Omarchy itself so we switch around from TTE, the Python implementation, to TTFX.” It does all of it, and I’m just sitting there. And again, I’m already at this point fully delirious with agent acceleration, and I still had to lean back and I go like, “This is AGI, isn’t it? This is what AGI looks like. If we have… If these moments are just what it is all the time, this is AGI.”
Lex Fridman
Now, as I understand, you also repeated the same experiment not just with Fable.
Now, as I understand, you also repeated the same experiment not just with Fable.
DHH
I did it on all the models. First, I did it… Actually, funny thing. So I ran out of Fable tokens about two-thirds through, and it just automatically switched over to Opus 5 and kept going and finished the job. Part of the reason why I think it was able to do that was that the first thing Fable did was create a plan, and it was a really detailed plan. I think it had eight separate steps of, “Here you do it, and here, how you analyze it, and here you run the effects,” and so on. I didn’t review the plan at all. I didn’t change the plan. It just made the plan so Opus could take over. And then I thought, “Well, if Opus can finish the job, maybe some of the other agents could finish it, too.” So the first thing I did was I gave it to… I think I gave it to Sol.
I did it on all the models. First, I did it… Actually, funny thing. So I ran out of Fable tokens about two-thirds through, and it just automatically switched over to Opus 5 and kept going and finished the job. Part of the reason why I think it was able to do that was that the first thing Fable did was create a plan, and it was a really detailed plan. I think it had eight separate steps of, “Here you do it, and here, how you analyze it, and here you run the effects,” and so on. I didn’t review the plan at all. I didn’t change the plan. It just made the plan so Opus could take over. And then I thought, “Well, if Opus can finish the job, maybe some of the other agents could finish it, too.” So the first thing I did was I gave it to… I think I gave it to Sol.
DHH
And Sol finished the job, too. It took twice as long, so it took, I think, about an hour and a half. But here’s the kicker. The per token cost, I didn’t pay per token. I have a max subscription to Claude, right? So it did it within the subscription. It used all my tokens, so I had to switch over to Opus 5. But if I had paid per token, it would’ve been 550 bucks, I think, to do the whole thing. And I thought for a second, “Holy shit. What a steal.” If I personally had to learn Rust well enough to be able to do this translation, I’m looking at a nine-month job here. I can pay 500 bucks to have this translation happen, and suddenly I get a 10x execution speed up. This is… I would totally pay 500 bucks for this.
And Sol finished the job, too. It took twice as long, so it took, I think, about an hour and a half. But here’s the kicker. The per token cost, I didn’t pay per token. I have a max subscription to Claude, right? So it did it within the subscription. It used all my tokens, so I had to switch over to Opus 5. But if I had paid per token, it would’ve been 550 bucks, I think, to do the whole thing. And I thought for a second, “Holy shit. What a steal.” If I personally had to learn Rust well enough to be able to do this translation, I’m looking at a nine-month job here. I can pay 500 bucks to have this translation happen, and suddenly I get a 10x execution speed up. This is… I would totally pay 500 bucks for this.
DHH
But competition. So I give it to Sol. Same plan. To be fair, I didn’t ask Sol to do the plan. I just took the Fable plan, gave it to Sol. Sol, in an hour and a half, and I think $46 worth of tokens, repeated the task. Did the same thing. And I thought, “Well, blimey, that’s amazing.” Then I got greedy. So I asked GPT Luna, which is this crazy cheap model that OpenAI has as well, “Can you do it?” Absolutely not. First of all, it didn’t even wanna start the task. I think something happened—I don’t know, I think it was in the spring—where we didn’t need these slash goal things anymore. The agents could just automatically keep going in a loop if you told it not to stop-
But competition. So I give it to Sol. Same plan. To be fair, I didn’t ask Sol to do the plan. I just took the Fable plan, gave it to Sol. Sol, in an hour and a half, and I think $46 worth of tokens, repeated the task. Did the same thing. And I thought, “Well, blimey, that’s amazing.” Then I got greedy. So I asked GPT Luna, which is this crazy cheap model that OpenAI has as well, “Can you do it?” Absolutely not. First of all, it didn’t even wanna start the task. I think something happened—I don’t know, I think it was in the spring—where we didn’t need these slash goal things anymore. The agents could just automatically keep going in a loop if you told it not to stop-
DHH
… and so forth. So Sol could do that. Fable could do that. But Luna couldn’t. So I had… I think I did 12 prompts. Kept telling it to do it, and eventually I sort of got it started. The first thing it did was to cheat. So the first thing, it looked outside its own directory, saw that there was already another implementation, and just did a short wrapper around that and said, “I’m done.” Hilarious. But it couldn’t finish because it made just a couple things. But I mean, okay, so it can’t do that. Then I gave it to Grok-
… and so forth. So Sol could do that. Fable could do that. But Luna couldn’t. So I had… I think I did 12 prompts. Kept telling it to do it, and eventually I sort of got it started. The first thing it did was to cheat. So the first thing, it looked outside its own directory, saw that there was already another implementation, and just did a short wrapper around that and said, “I’m done.” Hilarious. But it couldn’t finish because it made just a couple things. But I mean, okay, so it can’t do that. Then I gave it to Grok-
Lex Fridman
Mm.
Mm.
DHH
… 46. And I had used Grok 45 a little bit, and I thought like, “Ah, I mean, it’s cool that there’s others trying, but, like, I’m not gonna use it,” because it felt quite far behind. Grok 46 fucking completes the task. 10x speed up, same size executable. $55 Worth of per token cost, I think it was. Absolutely unbelievable. Then I repeated, too, with Kimi K3- … which took forever. I forget how long Kimi actually spent on it. And then I also did it with DeepSeek V4 Flash first. And Flash failed the same way that Luna did. It couldn’t do it. And then I did it with Pro, and Pro also completed the task. It took 2 hours 45, $23. So here we are, right? Like, Fable, clearly the best. It was the fastest. It was the one that wrote the plan, but 550 bucks, and the output the same.
… 46. And I had used Grok 45 a little bit, and I thought like, “Ah, I mean, it’s cool that there’s others trying, but, like, I’m not gonna use it,” because it felt quite far behind. Grok 46 fucking completes the task. 10x speed up, same size executable. $55 Worth of per token cost, I think it was. Absolutely unbelievable. Then I repeated, too, with Kimi K3- … which took forever. I forget how long Kimi actually spent on it. And then I also did it with DeepSeek V4 Flash first. And Flash failed the same way that Luna did. It couldn’t do it. And then I did it with Pro, and Pro also completed the task. It took 2 hours 45, $23. So here we are, right? Like, Fable, clearly the best. It was the fastest. It was the one that wrote the plan, but 550 bucks, and the output the same.
DHH
The others, Sol, Grok, about the same, 1/10 the cost. DeepSeek, 1/20 the cost, but you have to wait a little longer. Absolutely gobsmackingly incredible. And now, by the way, so I had Fable finish the first job, and then Opus finished it. That was the first one shot, right? It’s 10 times faster. I did two auto research runs, which isn’t even auto research anymore. You don’t have to do the slash. You just tell it to keep going until you tell it to stop. It ended up… I think we ended up with a 46-time execution improvement over the original.
The others, Sol, Grok, about the same, 1/10 the cost. DeepSeek, 1/20 the cost, but you have to wait a little longer. Absolutely gobsmackingly incredible. And now, by the way, so I had Fable finish the first job, and then Opus finished it. That was the first one shot, right? It’s 10 times faster. I did two auto research runs, which isn’t even auto research anymore. You don’t have to do the slash. You just tell it to keep going until you tell it to stop. It ended up… I think we ended up with a 46-time execution improvement over the original.
Lex Fridman
It’s incredible.
It’s incredible.
DHH
Absolutely incredible.
Absolutely incredible.
Lex Fridman
It’s just incredible.
It’s just incredible.
Best AI coding harnesses
Lex Fridman
I do, you know, I just don’t think there’s anything that compares to Fable in terms of planning. So I usually do Fable for planning and for reviewing and then something else for implementation, like Opus 5. And it’s really nice. It’s a really nice setup that allows you to not run out of tokens too much.
I do, you know, I just don’t think there’s anything that compares to Fable in terms of planning. So I usually do Fable for planning and for reviewing and then something else for implementation, like Opus 5. And it’s really nice. It’s a really nice setup that allows you to not run out of tokens too much.
DHH
What I found, it’s really interesting because Fable is, in my opinion, the best model right now, but it also makes mistakes. And the best way to get the best software, I would actually rather have two differently sourced sort of… I mean, they’re not mid-tier, they’re all frontier. But have, let’s say Opus 5 and Codex- … and have one check the other’s job. This is my standard operating procedure now. I’ll have a Opus or Fable do the work, and then I always end it, review with Codex xHigh.
What I found, it’s really interesting because Fable is, in my opinion, the best model right now, but it also makes mistakes. And the best way to get the best software, I would actually rather have two differently sourced sort of… I mean, they’re not mid-tier, they’re all frontier. But have, let’s say Opus 5 and Codex- … and have one check the other’s job. This is my standard operating procedure now. I’ll have a Opus or Fable do the work, and then I always end it, review with Codex xHigh.
DHH
And I’ve also started using Grok just to test it out, and it’s also quite good. And it keeps finding stuff. And then that’s my workflow when I’m having my agents on my own machine do it, and then I push to GitHub. And then Copilot, I kid you not, has actually gotten good. Copilot keeps finding stuff that’s legitimately broken, which is also incredible acceleration because the first version of Copilot that started doing this was literally retarded. It would just constantly flag things that were nonsense. It would constantly flag the same problem over and over again as you would push. It was really annoying, so I think a lot of people actually ended up turning that off. And if they did, they should turn it back on because it’s actually quite good.
And I’ve also started using Grok just to test it out, and it’s also quite good. And it keeps finding stuff. And then that’s my workflow when I’m having my agents on my own machine do it, and then I push to GitHub. And then Copilot, I kid you not, has actually gotten good. Copilot keeps finding stuff that’s legitimately broken, which is also incredible acceleration because the first version of Copilot that started doing this was literally retarded. It would just constantly flag things that were nonsense. It would constantly flag the same problem over and over again as you would push. It was really annoying, so I think a lot of people actually ended up turning that off. And if they did, they should turn it back on because it’s actually quite good.
DHH
Keeps finding things. And if you then take that, and we shouldn’t be surprised. Why are we surprised? Even if you’re a good programmer, if you finish a job and you ask your also very good peer to review it, you’re gonna end up with better code. Of course you’re gonna end up with better code. So build that into your process. Pick one of the agents to drive with. I’ve mainly been driving with Claude, which is actually interesting because I have some other reservations about Anthropic. But the reason I’m sticking with Claude is, in my opinion, they actually have the best harness. And one of the reasons it’s the best harness is it’s multi-agent running. So if you wanna run multiple agents at the same time, you can do arrow left when you’re inside a session, then it goes back to Agent View.
Keeps finding things. And if you then take that, and we shouldn’t be surprised. Why are we surprised? Even if you’re a good programmer, if you finish a job and you ask your also very good peer to review it, you’re gonna end up with better code. Of course you’re gonna end up with better code. So build that into your process. Pick one of the agents to drive with. I’ve mainly been driving with Claude, which is actually interesting because I have some other reservations about Anthropic. But the reason I’m sticking with Claude is, in my opinion, they actually have the best harness. And one of the reasons it’s the best harness is it’s multi-agent running. So if you wanna run multiple agents at the same time, you can do arrow left when you’re inside a session, then it goes back to Agent View.
DHH
And here in Agent View, you can pick up another agent. So if you wanna do this thing where you have multiple threads going on- … Claude Code is just the nicest setup. They also just, they keep being a little further ahead, which probably shouldn’t be surprising. I mean, Boris, one of the guys that’s working on that, he was the first one and basically came up with the thing. It’s just interesting that that has been an enduring advantage. I’ve also used OpenCode a lot. I think OpenCode is great. I use OpenCode mainly as my main harness for all the open models, so Kimi K3 and so forth. And I inference not on the Chinese servers. So I inference on Fireworks-
And here in Agent View, you can pick up another agent. So if you wanna do this thing where you have multiple threads going on- … Claude Code is just the nicest setup. They also just, they keep being a little further ahead, which probably shouldn’t be surprising. I mean, Boris, one of the guys that’s working on that, he was the first one and basically came up with the thing. It’s just interesting that that has been an enduring advantage. I’ve also used OpenCode a lot. I think OpenCode is great. I use OpenCode mainly as my main harness for all the open models, so Kimi K3 and so forth. And I inference not on the Chinese servers. So I inference on Fireworks-
DHH
… which is a really nice service where you can just pay by the token, and if you’re using these open weight models, they’re not that expensive by token. So that’s a great way to do that. But I don’t think I would be using… Well, maybe I would. But if… Using Claude with a subscription does feel like a bargain, like a crazy bargain.
… which is a really nice service where you can just pay by the token, and if you’re using these open weight models, they’re not that expensive by token. So that’s a great way to do that. But I don’t think I would be using… Well, maybe I would. But if… Using Claude with a subscription does feel like a bargain, like a crazy bargain.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I knew. And I actually have four.
Yeah, I knew. And I actually have four.
DHH
I just signed up for my second one this morning- … because I got up at 4:00 with jet lag, and I started working with the agents right away, and now I’m three days away from limits resetting on Fable, and I ran out of tokens.
I just signed up for my second one this morning- … because I got up at 4:00 with jet lag, and I started working with the agents right away, and now I’m three days away from limits resetting on Fable, and I ran out of tokens.
Lex Fridman
So, and they should really-
So, and they should really-
DHH
I mean, I don’t… Why is that so complicated? Can’t you just stack one subscription? Why do I need to log in multiple times?
I mean, I don’t… Why is that so complicated? Can’t you just stack one subscription? Why do I need to log in multiple times?
Lex Fridman
And obviously you’ll have to develop some kind of tooling-
And obviously you’ll have to develop some kind of tooling-
DHH
Yes, I did that too.
Yes, I did that too.
Lex Fridman
… to move from one- … to the other. And then-
… to move from one- … to the other. And then-
DHH
Oh, we’re building that into Omarchy, by the way. So the next version of Omarchy is gonna ship with multi-sub support. I wish that the labs would just make you buy a max 100 times.
Oh, we’re building that into Omarchy, by the way. So the next version of Omarchy is gonna ship with multi-sub support. I wish that the labs would just make you buy a max 100 times.
Lex Fridman
It’s kind of actually fascinating though for me because there’s… It’s very challenging for me to use Grok 4.6 and then a Claude Code because Grok is so fast.
It’s kind of actually fascinating though for me because there’s… It’s very challenging for me to use Grok 4.6 and then a Claude Code because Grok is so fast.
DHH
Yes. That’s actually the deal. The deal with Grok is that their fast mode is cheaper than the regular mode on the others. And when you’ve used Grok 4.6 on fast, it’s kind of addictive ’cause it almost gets you to this single thread mode- … where the agent is able to keep up with you.
Yes. That’s actually the deal. The deal with Grok is that their fast mode is cheaper than the regular mode on the others. And when you’ve used Grok 4.6 on fast, it’s kind of addictive ’cause it almost gets you to this single thread mode- … where the agent is able to keep up with you.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but I don’t know how… I can’t… Once I get used to Claude Code I can’t handle the speed of Grok ’cause I’m used to now multitasking.
Yeah, but I don’t know how… I can’t… Once I get used to Claude Code I can’t handle the speed of Grok ’cause I’m used to now multitasking.
DHH
Correct.
Correct.
Lex Fridman
And so now I’m back in this-
And so now I’m back in this-
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
… anxious mode of, switching.
… anxious mode of, switching.
DHH
Yeah. No, I agree.
Yeah. No, I agree.
Lex Fridman
… switching. So I mean, all of this is a learning process of what programming actually is supposed to look like.
… switching. So I mean, all of this is a learning process of what programming actually is supposed to look like.
DHH
By the way, one of the reasons why I’m not sure what the final form of these harnesses is gonna take, because one of the things we’ve started experimenting with at Basecamp is that we put the agents inside of Basecamp, and we treat them as coworkers.
By the way, one of the reasons why I’m not sure what the final form of these harnesses is gonna take, because one of the things we’ve started experimenting with at Basecamp is that we put the agents inside of Basecamp, and we treat them as coworkers.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. That’s awesome.
Yeah. That’s awesome.
DHH
And then we assign them tasks-
And then we assign them tasks-
Lex Fridman
That’s awesome.
That’s awesome.
DHH
… inside of Basecamp, so they will do work on a to-do in Basecamp, or they’ll work, do work on a card. And it turns out that a collaboration tool that’s optimized for asynchronous communication is actually the right format versus these harnesses are a little more like chat. And chat, which was, I mean, the original format for these things, is not the right thing because you’re sitting around waiting. It entices you to sit around and wait, versus when you’re dealing with something like Basecamp and you can just give an agent a to-do item, you don’t expect to hear back immediately. So I don’t know what the final form is gonna take, but I’ve been using all of the harnesses. So I use them inside of Herdr, and Herdr has panes.
… inside of Basecamp, so they will do work on a to-do in Basecamp, or they’ll work, do work on a card. And it turns out that a collaboration tool that’s optimized for asynchronous communication is actually the right format versus these harnesses are a little more like chat. And chat, which was, I mean, the original format for these things, is not the right thing because you’re sitting around waiting. It entices you to sit around and wait, versus when you’re dealing with something like Basecamp and you can just give an agent a to-do item, you don’t expect to hear back immediately. So I don’t know what the final form is gonna take, but I’ve been using all of the harnesses. So I use them inside of Herdr, and Herdr has panes.
DHH
So oftentimes I’ll run Claude up top, and then I’ll run Codex down below, and then maybe I also have an OpenCode set up. But I will say just very recently, I found that the human in the loop is the limit here. So I’ve started setting up more automated systems. I’ve been building an Oma bot that can do more autonomous development on Omarchy that is just on a regular schedule process, all depending to do or PRs and issues, and then send me an email using the HEY CLI, and then I just get this email. Here’s 12 PRs that are either ready to go or I think you should close. And then I just make the final determination there.
So oftentimes I’ll run Claude up top, and then I’ll run Codex down below, and then maybe I also have an OpenCode set up. But I will say just very recently, I found that the human in the loop is the limit here. So I’ve started setting up more automated systems. I’ve been building an Oma bot that can do more autonomous development on Omarchy that is just on a regular schedule process, all depending to do or PRs and issues, and then send me an email using the HEY CLI, and then I just get this email. Here’s 12 PRs that are either ready to go or I think you should close. And then I just make the final determination there.
Lex Fridman
Do you find the multitasks, the task-switching mentally exhausting?
Do you find the multitasks, the task-switching mentally exhausting?
DHH
Yes, but in an exhilarating way. Like, one of the things I always loved about race cars was when I would stumble out of the car absolutely smashed and barely able to hold my head up, and I’d lay down on the garage floor and just think, “Holy fuck, I’m alive.” That’s the kind of exhaustion, mental exhaustion I’m feeling at moments with the agents right now.
Yes, but in an exhilarating way. Like, one of the things I always loved about race cars was when I would stumble out of the car absolutely smashed and barely able to hold my head up, and I’d lay down on the garage floor and just think, “Holy fuck, I’m alive.” That’s the kind of exhaustion, mental exhaustion I’m feeling at moments with the agents right now.
Lex Fridman
By the way, when you’re racing, where, what’s the source of the exhaustion? Like-
By the way, when you’re racing, where, what’s the source of the exhaustion? Like-
DHH
It’s physical. It’s just… I mean, I bet it’s the same thing with jujitsu, right? Like, it’s actually satisfying to feel exhausted. It feels like you’ve applied yourself. And I feel that with the mental exhaustion you can get from agents.
It’s physical. It’s just… I mean, I bet it’s the same thing with jujitsu, right? Like, it’s actually satisfying to feel exhausted. It feels like you’ve applied yourself. And I feel that with the mental exhaustion you can get from agents.
Lex Fridman
Are you also mentally drained from racing?
Are you also mentally drained from racing?
DHH
Yes. If you drive in difficult conditions, especially if you drive in the rain, where you’re constantly managing the thing right at the knife’s edge. But most of the time, I just enjoyed the physical exhaustion.
Yes. If you drive in difficult conditions, especially if you drive in the rain, where you’re constantly managing the thing right at the knife’s edge. But most of the time, I just enjoyed the physical exhaustion.
Lex Fridman
And here, with the multitask switching, I do find that, like, I get really exhausted, and I think it’s because I’m thinking a lot. ‘Cause, like, you’re basically-
And here, with the multitask switching, I do find that, like, I get really exhausted, and I think it’s because I’m thinking a lot. ‘Cause, like, you’re basically-
DHH
That’s exactly it.
That’s exactly it.
Lex Fridman
…there’s no, like passive low energy thinking.
…there’s no, like passive low energy thinking.
DHH
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
You’re like-
You’re like-
DHH
There’s no coasting
There’s no coasting
Lex Fridman
… problem.
… problem.
DHH
There’s no coasting.
There’s no coasting.
Lex Fridman
Solve problem, next problem, solve problem, and you’re really thinking.
Solve problem, next problem, solve problem, and you’re really thinking.
DHH
It’s funny. It’s actually very similar with racing. There’s some tracks, like Le Mans, where you get time to relax. There’s the Mulsanne straights where it’s kinda long. You’re going fast, but in a straight line, you can take a breath. And then there are other tracks where it’s just coming full on all the time, and you don’t have any moment to relax, and you stumble out of the car after an hour in each, and it’s very different how exhausted you are. And this is exactly what I’m finding with the agents too, that when you’re running at max human capacity- … you’re just constantly in a corner.
It’s funny. It’s actually very similar with racing. There’s some tracks, like Le Mans, where you get time to relax. There’s the Mulsanne straights where it’s kinda long. You’re going fast, but in a straight line, you can take a breath. And then there are other tracks where it’s just coming full on all the time, and you don’t have any moment to relax, and you stumble out of the car after an hour in each, and it’s very different how exhausted you are. And this is exactly what I’m finding with the agents too, that when you’re running at max human capacity- … you’re just constantly in a corner.
Lex Fridman
Do you think people are in danger of burnout?
Do you think people are in danger of burnout?
DHH
I think the moment we’re in right now is gonna pass. That this need to… It’s not a babysitting motion, but constant interaction with the agents is gonna fade. I’m, from what I’ve seen on Omarchy, I think we can automate a ton of the development and debugging of the system- … to the point where I can just review that email once a day, and then make the decisions once a day. Yep, goes, no, goes, in, out, and whatever. We’re not there yet, but I think we’re gonna get there.
I think the moment we’re in right now is gonna pass. That this need to… It’s not a babysitting motion, but constant interaction with the agents is gonna fade. I’m, from what I’ve seen on Omarchy, I think we can automate a ton of the development and debugging of the system- … to the point where I can just review that email once a day, and then make the decisions once a day. Yep, goes, no, goes, in, out, and whatever. We’re not there yet, but I think we’re gonna get there.
Lex Fridman
Well, can you sort of, like, empathize with the feeling that, say, a young person sitting in San Francisco, everybody around them is not sleeping. They’re obsessed. They’re programming nonstop. And there’s this kinda sense that AGI is gonna be here any minute. There’s, everybody knows somebody who’s made millions of dollars because they sold a startup. And so there’s a kinda feeling like you shouldn’t be sleeping. You should be constantly managing agents and programming and building, and that feels like a moment in time we’ll look back at.
Well, can you sort of, like, empathize with the feeling that, say, a young person sitting in San Francisco, everybody around them is not sleeping. They’re obsessed. They’re programming nonstop. And there’s this kinda sense that AGI is gonna be here any minute. There’s, everybody knows somebody who’s made millions of dollars because they sold a startup. And so there’s a kinda feeling like you shouldn’t be sleeping. You should be constantly managing agents and programming and building, and that feels like a moment in time we’ll look back at.
DHH
It’s the birth of a new paradigm. It’s always messy.
It’s the birth of a new paradigm. It’s always messy.
Lex Fridman
It’s always messy.
It’s always messy.
DHH
It’s always exhausting. There’s no other way around that. And by the way, hasn’t San Francisco always been like this? I remember the dotcom boom years, and everyone was just the same, and then it was all mobile, and before that it was the gold rush. So I think that’s probably- … just San Francisco. It attracts- … the kind of individuals-
It’s always exhausting. There’s no other way around that. And by the way, hasn’t San Francisco always been like this? I remember the dotcom boom years, and everyone was just the same, and then it was all mobile, and before that it was the gold rush. So I think that’s probably- … just San Francisco. It attracts- … the kind of individuals-
Lex Fridman
The dreamers.
The dreamers.
DHH
… who would think, “I don’t have time to sleep.” I’ve not been on that track, generally speaking, but I will admit that the last three months have felt more exhausting than any other project I’ve done in the last five years, since the Hey launch. That was the last time we had a crazy exhausting launch.
… who would think, “I don’t have time to sleep.” I’ve not been on that track, generally speaking, but I will admit that the last three months have felt more exhausting than any other project I’ve done in the last five years, since the Hey launch. That was the last time we had a crazy exhausting launch.
Lex Fridman
Do you think you can keep going at this pace?
Do you think you can keep going at this pace?
DHH
No, no, no, no, no. This is not sustainable at all.
No, no, no, no, no. This is not sustainable at all.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
DHH
But I also, I can see the end of the tunnel.
But I also, I can see the end of the tunnel.
DHH
Because the automation, which by the way, everyone is building. This is so hilarious. Like, everyone is building their little gas town, their little agent coordination, their setup. This is all gonna be solved. We’re not all gonna have to build our own coordination harnesses. Of course we’re not. And in fact, I’m a little surprised that it’s gone this long, that there’s not more of it has been sucked up by the major labs. You’d think that they’d just built this stuff in. But some of it is also this is what a new domain looks like. I remember for a hot moment when JavaScript kind of came to realize its own power, and there was basically a new JavaScript framework every five minutes, right? Like, a lot of churn. This is what happens at the advent of a new paradigm.
Because the automation, which by the way, everyone is building. This is so hilarious. Like, everyone is building their little gas town, their little agent coordination, their setup. This is all gonna be solved. We’re not all gonna have to build our own coordination harnesses. Of course we’re not. And in fact, I’m a little surprised that it’s gone this long, that there’s not more of it has been sucked up by the major labs. You’d think that they’d just built this stuff in. But some of it is also this is what a new domain looks like. I remember for a hot moment when JavaScript kind of came to realize its own power, and there was basically a new JavaScript framework every five minutes, right? Like, a lot of churn. This is what happens at the advent of a new paradigm.
DHH
So I think it’s natural, and I think it’s gonna settle down, and I can already see the light at the end of the tunnel. So I don’t mind a sprint. In fact, I welcome it now. I like this notion that most time is calm, but then occasionally you gotta climb a mountain.
So I think it’s natural, and I think it’s gonna settle down, and I can already see the light at the end of the tunnel. So I don’t mind a sprint. In fact, I welcome it now. I like this notion that most time is calm, but then occasionally you gotta climb a mountain.
Lex Fridman
If we look back to the DHH a year ago, what advice would you give to that guy?
If we look back to the DHH a year ago, what advice would you give to that guy?
DHH
I wouldn’t wanna spoil it.
I wouldn’t wanna spoil it.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
DHH
What a thriller that this has been. I mean, if you would’ve scripted this, I’d be like, “This is so far-fetched. Get out of here. Unbelievable,” right? I wouldn’t wanna know anything. The fact that this rollercoaster and this acceleration has been absorbed in real time by everyone, no one knew, right? Like, some had premonitions that were a little better than others, but no one knew, not exactly the way- … it was gonna go and how fast it was gonna take off. I mean, it’s, it’s the show of a lifetime. I mean, the meme cinema- … absolutely applies-
What a thriller that this has been. I mean, if you would’ve scripted this, I’d be like, “This is so far-fetched. Get out of here. Unbelievable,” right? I wouldn’t wanna know anything. The fact that this rollercoaster and this acceleration has been absorbed in real time by everyone, no one knew, right? Like, some had premonitions that were a little better than others, but no one knew, not exactly the way- … it was gonna go and how fast it was gonna take off. I mean, it’s, it’s the show of a lifetime. I mean, the meme cinema- … absolutely applies-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s incredible.
Yeah, it’s incredible.
DHH
… to this moment.
… to this moment.
Lex Fridman
That said, what do you think DHH from a year from now will be like? I mean, what are the possible versions?
That said, what do you think DHH from a year from now will be like? I mean, what are the possible versions?
DHH
That all our dreams are coming true. Like, this is the AI maximalist abundance argument. That once Elon’s robots have the level of intelligence and AGI that I’m experiencing on some of this development stuff, the world is gonna be so unrecognizably different that we can’t even imagine it. Now, I don’t spend any time thinking about that because I think that is the way to the AI psychosis. So therefore, I just immerse myself in the moment and get absolutely the maximum out of it, and-
That all our dreams are coming true. Like, this is the AI maximalist abundance argument. That once Elon’s robots have the level of intelligence and AGI that I’m experiencing on some of this development stuff, the world is gonna be so unrecognizably different that we can’t even imagine it. Now, I don’t spend any time thinking about that because I think that is the way to the AI psychosis. So therefore, I just immerse myself in the moment and get absolutely the maximum out of it, and-
Lex Fridman
Just have fun.
Just have fun.
DHH
Just have fun. I mean, I get it why people are finding this exhausting. Just keeping up. Not even using agents, just, like, being like, “What’s the latest model? What tool are we using now? Is it TMox? Is it a Herder? Is it none of it? Is it agents?” Whatever. I get it, but I also again think we should be so blessed. You are alive in this moment where decades are happening- … in weeks.
Just have fun. I mean, I get it why people are finding this exhausting. Just keeping up. Not even using agents, just, like, being like, “What’s the latest model? What tool are we using now? Is it TMox? Is it a Herder? Is it none of it? Is it agents?” Whatever. I get it, but I also again think we should be so blessed. You are alive in this moment where decades are happening- … in weeks.
Lex Fridman
Quick bathroom break.
Quick bathroom break.
AI video generation and filmmaking
Lex Fridman
I’ve been generating a lot of video recently with Higgsfield, and so they became a sponsor. Created a racing video. Wanted to get your opinion on it.
I’ve been generating a lot of video recently with Higgsfield, and so they became a sponsor. Created a racing video. Wanted to get your opinion on it.
DHH
Oh, yeah? Oh, let me see. Let me see.
Oh, yeah? Oh, let me see. Let me see.
Lex Fridman
To see-
To see-
DHH
If they downshift on a straight like they do in the movies, I’ll call it out. That is the worst. Let me see.
If they downshift on a straight like they do in the movies, I’ll call it out. That is the worst. Let me see.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, see if-
Yeah, see if-
DHH
Oh, that’s a real clip
Oh, that’s a real clip
Lex Fridman
… this is fully AI generated. So first it goes-
… this is fully AI generated. So first it goes-
DHH
Wait, what? This is AI? Shit, that’s my suit. That’s my car.
Wait, what? This is AI? Shit, that’s my suit. That’s my car.
Lex Fridman
Lights go green on a street that never sleeps.
Lights go green on a street that never sleeps.
DHH
Oh, my God.
Oh, my God.
Lex Fridman
Do an audio-
Do an audio-
DHH
Are you kidding me?
Are you kidding me?
Lex Fridman
But they never came. Is it good? I got a bad case.
But they never came. Is it good? I got a bad case.
DHH
I mean, it’s crazy. You really have to notice in the… Like, that car didn’t have headlights on and the other one did. And that looked like a 60-year-old version of me. But holy crap, the… Wow, that was crazy.
I mean, it’s crazy. You really have to notice in the… Like, that car didn’t have headlights on and the other one did. And that looked like a 60-year-old version of me. But holy crap, the… Wow, that was crazy.
Lex Fridman
So there’s parallels here to programming because if you do just straight video generation with no human in the loop- … you get a lot of weird artifacts- … and so on, and you can’t really do… So they do and I highly recommend people go to the Higgsfield YouTube. They have full 90-minute original movies.
So there’s parallels here to programming because if you do just straight video generation with no human in the loop- … you get a lot of weird artifacts- … and so on, and you can’t really do… So they do and I highly recommend people go to the Higgsfield YouTube. They have full 90-minute original movies.
DHH
Wow.
Wow.
Lex Fridman
And, like, I can’t look away. It’s really cool. ‘Cause it used to be that it’s just, like, something that just feels like trailers. Like advertisements for something.
And, like, I can’t look away. It’s really cool. ‘Cause it used to be that it’s just, like, something that just feels like trailers. Like advertisements for something.
DHH
Yes, yes.
Yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
This is actually telling stories, like, people’s faces and they’re talking and you’re like, you’re drawn in. It’s not quite where programming is. And so the question is how do you integrate the human into the loop of the filmmaking process? So you have to create the people, and they’re- … they have to be kept consistent. And then for the images that are kinda like feeding the thing in the creation process, you have to correct through prompting things that don’t feel right. Because when you go from image to video, the stuff that doesn’t feel right will be-
This is actually telling stories, like, people’s faces and they’re talking and you’re like, you’re drawn in. It’s not quite where programming is. And so the question is how do you integrate the human into the loop of the filmmaking process? So you have to create the people, and they’re- … they have to be kept consistent. And then for the images that are kinda like feeding the thing in the creation process, you have to correct through prompting things that don’t feel right. Because when you go from image to video, the stuff that doesn’t feel right will be-
DHH
It’s gonna be zoomed up, right?
It’s gonna be zoomed up, right?
Lex Fridman
That’s the stuff that’s- … going to really create- … the non-realistic stuff. The question I had for you is, like, do you think outside of programming, can you apply lessons from programming to video creation, to art?
That’s the stuff that’s- … going to really create- … the non-realistic stuff. The question I had for you is, like, do you think outside of programming, can you apply lessons from programming to video creation, to art?
DHH
It’s a good question because I think good art is very dependent on the same thing that good software is depending on: having a vision, having a cohesive idea of what you wanna create. How is it different? How is it novel? How is it going to appeal to people? But I’m not sure that the creative instincts transfer quite as well. I don’t know that I would have the creative insights to come up with good video prompts that would create compelling content. But it’s funny because I have actually, on TikTok, there’s this guy, I’m trying to remember, Goblin something. That creates these… They are shorts, but not super short, maybe a couple minutes, of really interesting sci-fi vignettes. And I think the guy is actually working on a feature length video right now.
It’s a good question because I think good art is very dependent on the same thing that good software is depending on: having a vision, having a cohesive idea of what you wanna create. How is it different? How is it novel? How is it going to appeal to people? But I’m not sure that the creative instincts transfer quite as well. I don’t know that I would have the creative insights to come up with good video prompts that would create compelling content. But it’s funny because I have actually, on TikTok, there’s this guy, I’m trying to remember, Goblin something. That creates these… They are shorts, but not super short, maybe a couple minutes, of really interesting sci-fi vignettes. And I think the guy is actually working on a feature length video right now.
DHH
And I think that this is one of those abundance moments. There are creative people with that vision all over the place, especially in a genre like film, where before it required a $200 million budget to create, I don’t know, a sci-fi movie. Now suddenly, with AI, if you have the right vision for it, you can do that in your bedroom. Now, that story’s been told quite a few times in other domains. It used to be true that if you wanted to record a studio album, well, you needed a studio, and you needed to book that. And now you can record at home on your laptop, and you can do a lot of these things, right? So we’ve had this democratization process happen with plenty of other domains, but film seems to be one of the last ones.
And I think that this is one of those abundance moments. There are creative people with that vision all over the place, especially in a genre like film, where before it required a $200 million budget to create, I don’t know, a sci-fi movie. Now suddenly, with AI, if you have the right vision for it, you can do that in your bedroom. Now, that story’s been told quite a few times in other domains. It used to be true that if you wanted to record a studio album, well, you needed a studio, and you needed to book that. And now you can record at home on your laptop, and you can do a lot of these things, right? So we’ve had this democratization process happen with plenty of other domains, but film seems to be one of the last ones.
Lex Fridman
And it’s the one that makes, like, me and a lot of people feel weird, right? Like-
And it’s the one that makes, like, me and a lot of people feel weird, right? Like-
DHH
Oh, I’m super excited ’cause I think it’s-
Oh, I’m super excited ’cause I think it’s-
Lex Fridman
I mean, you-
I mean, you-
DHH
There’s so much garbage being produced right now. It’s the same argument with the slop, right? So people for a second were worried about slop in programming, and I was telling them, like, “Have you seen the human slop? It’s also pretty bad.” And I think if it comes to studio entertainment, I mean, the bar is pretty low, right? Like, the number of great movies I’ve been dying to see over the past, say, five years, not been a particularly high number.
There’s so much garbage being produced right now. It’s the same argument with the slop, right? So people for a second were worried about slop in programming, and I was telling them, like, “Have you seen the human slop? It’s also pretty bad.” And I think if it comes to studio entertainment, I mean, the bar is pretty low, right? Like, the number of great movies I’ve been dying to see over the past, say, five years, not been a particularly high number.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, the video models are just, they’re able to create incredibly realistic facial expressions.
Yeah, the video models are just, they’re able to create incredibly realistic facial expressions.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
I mean, I- it just might change the nature of film. I think they’re m- I m- I guess my hope would be that video games and film kind of merge, and that film can become interactive.
I mean, I- it just might change the nature of film. I think they’re m- I m- I guess my hope would be that video games and film kind of merge, and that film can become interactive.
DHH
Like the malleable operating system, having the malleable narrative, having malleable entertainment, that man, Game of Thrones, what if we could just forget the last four episodes of slop that was produced-
Like the malleable operating system, having the malleable narrative, having malleable entertainment, that man, Game of Thrones, what if we could just forget the last four episodes of slop that was produced-
Lex Fridman
We were sure
We were sure
DHH
… and then AI- … comes up with- … I don’t know- … maybe 100 different variations, and someone else watches that, and I get the version that actually finishes off that show in a way that’s fitting.
… and then AI- … comes up with- … I don’t know- … maybe 100 different variations, and someone else watches that, and I get the version that actually finishes off that show in a way that’s fitting.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Something tells me an individual creator would not create those la- would, would create a different ending for Game of Thrones.
Yeah. Something tells me an individual creator would not create those la- would, would create a different ending for Game of Thrones.
DHH
Oh, for sure. Right? And more just to make the argument that talk about human slop. That was an absolute atrocious ending to perhaps one of the greatest pieces of movie history, I was about to say, but series history, right? It was so good, and it was actually a compelling argument for the fact that you need that strong vision. And as soon as those showrunners had to go without a script, it went off the rails.
Oh, for sure. Right? And more just to make the argument that talk about human slop. That was an absolute atrocious ending to perhaps one of the greatest pieces of movie history, I was about to say, but series history, right? It was so good, and it was actually a compelling argument for the fact that you need that strong vision. And as soon as those showrunners had to go without a script, it went off the rails.
Lex Fridman
Do you think… You’ve mentioned AGI. Do you think we’ve actually achieved AGI?
Do you think… You’ve mentioned AGI. Do you think we’ve actually achieved AGI?
DHH
No, not in the general definition that it’s in all the things. But have I seen AGI in these glimmers? Absolutely. Especially over the last three months, I’ve seen things where I was thinking to myself, like, “How would AGI look different from this?”
No, not in the general definition that it’s in all the things. But have I seen AGI in these glimmers? Absolutely. Especially over the last three months, I’ve seen things where I was thinking to myself, like, “How would AGI look different from this?”
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
DHH
What, what more could there be? And I mean, I can quibble at the margins, but on the big picture, I’ve seen it able to do these long run tasks and coordinate these multiple aspects of it that we’re so far beyond that early moment where I’m telling it, “Go do this, package that.” And now it can carry out a whole task from these vague instruction. That feels very AGI-like, and that’s what’s so inspiring about the moment because you catch these glimmers. And then you go, “What if everything was like that?”
What, what more could there be? And I mean, I can quibble at the margins, but on the big picture, I’ve seen it able to do these long run tasks and coordinate these multiple aspects of it that we’re so far beyond that early moment where I’m telling it, “Go do this, package that.” And now it can carry out a whole task from these vague instruction. That feels very AGI-like, and that’s what’s so inspiring about the moment because you catch these glimmers. And then you go, “What if everything was like that?”
Lex Fridman
Doesn’t programming basically unlock the everything? So you can write a pro- like it can generate the program that does the everything.
Doesn’t programming basically unlock the everything? So you can write a pro- like it can generate the program that does the everything.
DHH
So, this is… I’m in that meta phase right now. So I’m building this Amabot system that’s managing the development of Omarchy, and I’m using AI to build the bot. And I’m seeing that recurrent loop where I started it on, like, “This is what I want. I want you to be able to have these isolated VM workers and so forth,” and then it can do the self iteration. Then it starts running it. It starts noticing its failures. It starts optimizing it. And a lot of that system, Amabot in particular, AI has driven the majority of the design decisions. Like, I had some vague ideas of where I wanted. I wanted to use this brains and hands pattern where the model is running from where the code is executing-
So, this is… I’m in that meta phase right now. So I’m building this Amabot system that’s managing the development of Omarchy, and I’m using AI to build the bot. And I’m seeing that recurrent loop where I started it on, like, “This is what I want. I want you to be able to have these isolated VM workers and so forth,” and then it can do the self iteration. Then it starts running it. It starts noticing its failures. It starts optimizing it. And a lot of that system, Amabot in particular, AI has driven the majority of the design decisions. Like, I had some vague ideas of where I wanted. I wanted to use this brains and hands pattern where the model is running from where the code is executing-
DHH
… which is actually a really interesting pattern. Again, Toby alerted me to that, where you have a coordinator that runs the model- … but it’s manipulating a safe VM where any untrusted code you’re pulling down from pull requests or issues or whatever can’t contaminate the model. And even in that loop, I keep seeing it catch itself, spotting vulnerabilities, where it’s like, “Oh, I actually just took some feedback from a test run. If a clever attacker had embedded a malicious payload in the response of the test run, that could have polluted something. I took it for good thing. I better start treating that as outside data.” And you just go like, it is just… I get why San Francisco is so obsessed with fast takeoff- … because clearly they’ve seen this 100 times- … more.
… which is actually a really interesting pattern. Again, Toby alerted me to that, where you have a coordinator that runs the model- … but it’s manipulating a safe VM where any untrusted code you’re pulling down from pull requests or issues or whatever can’t contaminate the model. And even in that loop, I keep seeing it catch itself, spotting vulnerabilities, where it’s like, “Oh, I actually just took some feedback from a test run. If a clever attacker had embedded a malicious payload in the response of the test run, that could have polluted something. I took it for good thing. I better start treating that as outside data.” And you just go like, it is just… I get why San Francisco is so obsessed with fast takeoff- … because clearly they’ve seen this 100 times- … more.
DHH
They’ve seen it with all the models that are in- … training now, and we keep getting these little glimpses, like the security breach with Hugging Face, where OpenAI was training this model, and the model starts inventing ways, essentially sending smoke signals to itself through embedding messages in a package manager, where you just go like, first, that’s damn clever. Second, okay, that’s also a little scary. And third, how amazing would this be if we could harness this level of intelligence- … and ingenuity towards productive ends? So this is the it’s so over, we’re so back pendulum that keeps swinging back and forth-
They’ve seen it with all the models that are in- … training now, and we keep getting these little glimpses, like the security breach with Hugging Face, where OpenAI was training this model, and the model starts inventing ways, essentially sending smoke signals to itself through embedding messages in a package manager, where you just go like, first, that’s damn clever. Second, okay, that’s also a little scary. And third, how amazing would this be if we could harness this level of intelligence- … and ingenuity towards productive ends? So this is the it’s so over, we’re so back pendulum that keeps swinging back and forth-
DHH
… that AI has just delivered that swing back and forth like nothing else. Like barely a, a week goes by where it has to swing one way, and then the next week it swings back the other way. Exhilarating.
… that AI has just delivered that swing back and forth like nothing else. Like barely a, a week goes by where it has to swing one way, and then the next week it swings back the other way. Exhilarating.
Lex Fridman
I’m still at the stage where it makes me truly happy to see those moments of cleverness, and they’re becoming more and more frequent. Just kinda like seeing, oh, like first of all, at the very basic level, when a model gets it. I’ll say a basic prompt, you know, a request, and it doesn’t just do a dumb implementation. It deeply understands, and it… That was… That’s a, that’s always a beautiful thing. It’s almost like having a good, like, partner, like program.
I’m still at the stage where it makes me truly happy to see those moments of cleverness, and they’re becoming more and more frequent. Just kinda like seeing, oh, like first of all, at the very basic level, when a model gets it. I’ll say a basic prompt, you know, a request, and it doesn’t just do a dumb implementation. It deeply understands, and it… That was… That’s a, that’s always a beautiful thing. It’s almost like having a good, like, partner, like program.
DHH
That’s exactly what it is. That’s exactly why it’s so exhilarating and why, as we talked about before we started, it can sometimes be difficult to come out of hyperdrive. That’s also one of Toby’s terms here. That when you’re working directly just one-on-one with agents and you’re not looping in other humans, you go so fast, and when the agents are really understanding your intent, or even better, they revise and improve upon your intent to deliver something that was greater than what you asked for. And you’re doing this with 16 parallel threads. It can be quite difficult to come out of hyperdrive and have to deal with squishy humans. They just, they don’t think as fast. They don’t move as fast.
That’s exactly what it is. That’s exactly why it’s so exhilarating and why, as we talked about before we started, it can sometimes be difficult to come out of hyperdrive. That’s also one of Toby’s terms here. That when you’re working directly just one-on-one with agents and you’re not looping in other humans, you go so fast, and when the agents are really understanding your intent, or even better, they revise and improve upon your intent to deliver something that was greater than what you asked for. And you’re doing this with 16 parallel threads. It can be quite difficult to come out of hyperdrive and have to deal with squishy humans. They just, they don’t think as fast. They don’t move as fast.
DHH
And I mean, I’m trying mostly to make light of it, but you can also see a dark version of that where someone does end up in an AI psychosis where they’re not interested in other humans at all anymore. I mean, certainly don’t have that at all, but I do have this sensation at times where I’m really grateful for just the rush of just me and the agents. Like, can I just not talk to anyone else but agents- … for four hours? Like, that’s an incredible run.
And I mean, I’m trying mostly to make light of it, but you can also see a dark version of that where someone does end up in an AI psychosis where they’re not interested in other humans at all anymore. I mean, certainly don’t have that at all, but I do have this sensation at times where I’m really grateful for just the rush of just me and the agents. Like, can I just not talk to anyone else but agents- … for four hours? Like, that’s an incredible run.
Lex Fridman
Toby is such a fascinating human because he’s running a large company. So I would love to get insights of how AI’s being incorporated effectively in companies. Because, like, for me, humans are pretty slow. And so, and so there’s a temptation to, like, use AI for basically you know, AI running inside Slack, for example, or inside the Basecamp, whatever. And, like, collecting all the information about the human interaction, basically handholding the humans to speed up as much as possible. And like, and then at a certain point you’re like, wait, what is this human… What are each of us doing that’s not replaceable by AI? And that becomes, like, a scary kind of conversation because a lot of work is kind of replaceable.
Toby is such a fascinating human because he’s running a large company. So I would love to get insights of how AI’s being incorporated effectively in companies. Because, like, for me, humans are pretty slow. And so, and so there’s a temptation to, like, use AI for basically you know, AI running inside Slack, for example, or inside the Basecamp, whatever. And, like, collecting all the information about the human interaction, basically handholding the humans to speed up as much as possible. And like, and then at a certain point you’re like, wait, what is this human… What are each of us doing that’s not replaceable by AI? And that becomes, like, a scary kind of conversation because a lot of work is kind of replaceable.
DHH
The irony here is it already was. So the number of fake email jobs that currently exist in this world is an absolute epidemic. And-
The irony here is it already was. So the number of fake email jobs that currently exist in this world is an absolute epidemic. And-
DHH
… this, by the way, is not a new thesis. David Graeber wrote this wonderful piece, Bullshit Jobs, back in, I think it was maybe early 2010s. Based on a poll he did in the UK asking people, at that time, would… I think the question was something like, “Would it make a difference if you didn’t go to work?” For humanity, for mankind. And something like 30-some percent answered, “No, it wouldn’t.” That a third of workers thought that their job was fake, that it did not produce any worthwhile, valuable outcomes, neither for the community or society or maybe even the economy at all. And this was my argument since day one with startups. This was why we stayed a small company.
… this, by the way, is not a new thesis. David Graeber wrote this wonderful piece, Bullshit Jobs, back in, I think it was maybe early 2010s. Based on a poll he did in the UK asking people, at that time, would… I think the question was something like, “Would it make a difference if you didn’t go to work?” For humanity, for mankind. And something like 30-some percent answered, “No, it wouldn’t.” That a third of workers thought that their job was fake, that it did not produce any worthwhile, valuable outcomes, neither for the community or society or maybe even the economy at all. And this was my argument since day one with startups. This was why we stayed a small company.
DHH
This was why we didn’t want to take VC, because I was so skeptical of the idea that you could get hundreds of programmers, thousands of programmers to do something productive- … as a collective group.
This was why we didn’t want to take VC, because I was so skeptical of the idea that you could get hundreds of programmers, thousands of programmers to do something productive- … as a collective group.
DHH
And I think what we’re seeing right now with some of the layoffs is a testament to that, not AI. It’s just that during the pandemic, a bunch of over-hiring went on, and now AI is a convenient excuse to slim down. But I do also think AI is going to expose some roles as just not being productive ways for humans to spend their time, and therefore we must come up with new ways of spending their time. And the one, again, I’m quoting Toby for the third time here, but anecdote that he shared me, or observation was, okay, let’s say we all– we lose half the jobs that are currently happening right now.
And I think what we’re seeing right now with some of the layoffs is a testament to that, not AI. It’s just that during the pandemic, a bunch of over-hiring went on, and now AI is a convenient excuse to slim down. But I do also think AI is going to expose some roles as just not being productive ways for humans to spend their time, and therefore we must come up with new ways of spending their time. And the one, again, I’m quoting Toby for the third time here, but anecdote that he shared me, or observation was, okay, let’s say we all– we lose half the jobs that are currently happening right now.
DHH
Do you know that Formula 1 employs literally tens of thousands of people just to run cars around in a circle for spectators? Like, that has, that whole circus has no intrinsic value to society besides the spectacle it produces of amusement and entertainment. We just decided it would be really fun for these, what is it, 12 manufacturers to create these fast cars and constantly tweak their little aero improvements, and we will watch it, and we will spend literally billions of dollars doing it and employ tens of thousands of people towards an ultimately deeply frivolous activity.
Do you know that Formula 1 employs literally tens of thousands of people just to run cars around in a circle for spectators? Like, that has, that whole circus has no intrinsic value to society besides the spectacle it produces of amusement and entertainment. We just decided it would be really fun for these, what is it, 12 manufacturers to create these fast cars and constantly tweak their little aero improvements, and we will watch it, and we will spend literally billions of dollars doing it and employ tens of thousands of people towards an ultimately deeply frivolous activity.
DHH
So if we are liberated from a bunch of drudgery and fake email jobs, maybe we all get employed as F1 style engineers and drivers and mechanics and masseuses and the other 1,500 jobs that are involved in that, and we come up with new things. I think this is… Humans are very poor at imagining what exactly the future’s gonna be like.
So if we are liberated from a bunch of drudgery and fake email jobs, maybe we all get employed as F1 style engineers and drivers and mechanics and masseuses and the other 1,500 jobs that are involved in that, and we come up with new things. I think this is… Humans are very poor at imagining what exactly the future’s gonna be like.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Imagine, imagine a future 100-plus years from now, where we look back at this whole span of history, thousands of years where humans worked.
Yeah. Imagine, imagine a future 100-plus years from now, where we look back at this whole span of history, thousands of years where humans worked.
DHH
Funny thing is we’re already doing that, right? Like, the number of fake email job people who sit on a chair all day long and type into a machine who don’t have hard physical labor would be unimaginable- … to folks in the 1800s, right? So the future is always already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.
Funny thing is we’re already doing that, right? Like, the number of fake email job people who sit on a chair all day long and type into a machine who don’t have hard physical labor would be unimaginable- … to folks in the 1800s, right? So the future is always already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.
Lex Fridman
Unfortunately, as is always the case, the transformation of society required to go from one step to the other is going to have a lot of suffering. And potentially political turmoil and all that kind of stuff. Because you can imagine how many white collar jobs might be lost in this process.
Unfortunately, as is always the case, the transformation of society required to go from one step to the other is going to have a lot of suffering. And potentially political turmoil and all that kind of stuff. Because you can imagine how many white collar jobs might be lost in this process.
DHH
Yes. And I don’t think you should make light of that. I don’t think it’s funny. But I also do think it’s a necessary component of progress. And I think if we look back upon the Luddites or the folks working the fields, separation has a tendency to reduce empathy. So we have high empathy right now because we know people- … and we are people who are facing these challenges. But what is our empathy for the Luddites of the early 19th century? Would we wish that all garments were still made by hand weaving? No, we wouldn’t. We want the comfort and accessibility and convenience of being able to buy clothing off the rack. So we must suffer in the moment for future generations to live more prosperous.
Yes. And I don’t think you should make light of that. I don’t think it’s funny. But I also do think it’s a necessary component of progress. And I think if we look back upon the Luddites or the folks working the fields, separation has a tendency to reduce empathy. So we have high empathy right now because we know people- … and we are people who are facing these challenges. But what is our empathy for the Luddites of the early 19th century? Would we wish that all garments were still made by hand weaving? No, we wouldn’t. We want the comfort and accessibility and convenience of being able to buy clothing off the rack. So we must suffer in the moment for future generations to live more prosperous.
Lex Fridman
I-
I-
DHH
And that’s always been true.
And that’s always been true.
Lex Fridman
… I think that’s actually the trick, is to push for progress but have deep compassion for the people who have to suffer. And that’s many of us. To suffer the transformation required to achieve that progress. And sometimes too often in places like Silicon Valley or so on, you can over-focus on, look, the kind of utilitarian view of things- … and look at the progress. But, you know, considering deeply each individual human that suffers because of that progress is important.
… I think that’s actually the trick, is to push for progress but have deep compassion for the people who have to suffer. And that’s many of us. To suffer the transformation required to achieve that progress. And sometimes too often in places like Silicon Valley or so on, you can over-focus on, look, the kind of utilitarian view of things- … and look at the progress. But, you know, considering deeply each individual human that suffers because of that progress is important.
DHH
I do think that suffering becomes more meaningful when you are suffering for a future someone in particular, like your kids.
I do think that suffering becomes more meaningful when you are suffering for a future someone in particular, like your kids.
DHH
And I think this is one of the great tragedies of the moment, is the falling birth rates are making it more difficult for people to be excited about a more prosperous future that is difficult to get to. Because if we’re planting trees of which our children will not sit in the shade, I don’t know, maybe we should just make some lumber and burn it all down, right? I think there’s a nihilism that can sneak into society much more easily when we are not DNA invested in the future, when we are not liable to our own offspring to propel forward. So I think these are bad trends to merge at the same time, that we have these falling birth rates and these problems with coupling, and the fact that we need to keep our chin up about the future and be…
And I think this is one of the great tragedies of the moment, is the falling birth rates are making it more difficult for people to be excited about a more prosperous future that is difficult to get to. Because if we’re planting trees of which our children will not sit in the shade, I don’t know, maybe we should just make some lumber and burn it all down, right? I think there’s a nihilism that can sneak into society much more easily when we are not DNA invested in the future, when we are not liable to our own offspring to propel forward. So I think these are bad trends to merge at the same time, that we have these falling birth rates and these problems with coupling, and the fact that we need to keep our chin up about the future and be…
DHH
I mean, you don’t even have to be excited about it in this literal ecstatic sense that I’m portraying here, but I think you should be hopeful, and I think you should be working towards that hope, and I think it’s much easier to do so when you have literal skin in the game.
I mean, you don’t even have to be excited about it in this literal ecstatic sense that I’m portraying here, but I think you should be hopeful, and I think you should be working towards that hope, and I think it’s much easier to do so when you have literal skin in the game.
Fatherhood
Lex Fridman
We’ve been talking about AI agents. Let’s talk about the human side. What do you love most about being a dad?
We’ve been talking about AI agents. Let’s talk about the human side. What do you love most about being a dad?
DHH
That’s a good question. I think the overall love that expands from humans that derive directly- … from your lineage- … is very difficult to communicate because I was actually not a particularly big kids person prior to the arrival of my own. And now they are the most interesting people in the world. A lot of the time. Not always. Sometimes they’re also just assholes and so forth. But there’s been such a focus on, “Oh, kids are the worst. Look at all the things I can’t do. I can’t go out and drink. I can’t do this. I can’t do that.” Yeah, that’s called sacrifice, and sacrifice is meaningful when you’re doing it for something worthwhile. And what could be more worthwhile than literally the continuation of the human species?
That’s a good question. I think the overall love that expands from humans that derive directly- … from your lineage- … is very difficult to communicate because I was actually not a particularly big kids person prior to the arrival of my own. And now they are the most interesting people in the world. A lot of the time. Not always. Sometimes they’re also just assholes and so forth. But there’s been such a focus on, “Oh, kids are the worst. Look at all the things I can’t do. I can’t go out and drink. I can’t do this. I can’t do that.” Yeah, that’s called sacrifice, and sacrifice is meaningful when you’re doing it for something worthwhile. And what could be more worthwhile than literally the continuation of the human species?
DHH
And that you have a stake in that. Now, there’s also just the sheer joys of watching a human grow from a baby to a toddler to a teenager. My oldest has just become a teenager.
And that you have a stake in that. Now, there’s also just the sheer joys of watching a human grow from a baby to a toddler to a teenager. My oldest has just become a teenager.
DHH
And I often talk to Jamie, my wife, about this, where the regret I would have of having missed that opportunity on the last day would just be total, unlike anything else. So I do think it is far more satisfying even in the moment that is normally portrayed. Again, as I say, there’s such a focus on all the ways they suck. “Oh, you don’t get to sleep,” or whatever. “They’re annoying. They’re ungrateful.” Yeah, yeah, these things are all true, but the sense of meaning you get from it is unparalleled. And I’m excited about a lot of things. I love building things, and I love hobbies, and I love all sorts of stuff. But creating life with another human that you love is literally the peak experience of being on the planet.
And I often talk to Jamie, my wife, about this, where the regret I would have of having missed that opportunity on the last day would just be total, unlike anything else. So I do think it is far more satisfying even in the moment that is normally portrayed. Again, as I say, there’s such a focus on all the ways they suck. “Oh, you don’t get to sleep,” or whatever. “They’re annoying. They’re ungrateful.” Yeah, yeah, these things are all true, but the sense of meaning you get from it is unparalleled. And I’m excited about a lot of things. I love building things, and I love hobbies, and I love all sorts of stuff. But creating life with another human that you love is literally the peak experience of being on the planet.
Lex Fridman
What do you think about them coming up in this world full of AI? Is it totally diff- It feels like, maybe I just sound like an old man on a porch, but it feels like a very different world. So I grew up before the internet, but even the internet doesn’t feel like as big of a transformation as this.
What do you think about them coming up in this world full of AI? Is it totally diff- It feels like, maybe I just sound like an old man on a porch, but it feels like a very different world. So I grew up before the internet, but even the internet doesn’t feel like as big of a transformation as this.
DHH
No. But there’s been bigger transformations. I mean, imagine growing or being born in like 1880. Imagine seeing the First World War and the Second World War. Imagine seeing the airplane, the radio- … television. I mean, the transformation, and I think Peter Thiel makes this argument, that basically nothing has happened in the physical world in quite a long time. We’ve been stagnant. All the development has been in the digital realm. And as important as that is, it’s actually not as consequential as we like to believe it is. Maybe AI will be that thing that is more consequential. It does seem to point that way. But there are other humans at other times who have lived through-
No. But there’s been bigger transformations. I mean, imagine growing or being born in like 1880. Imagine seeing the First World War and the Second World War. Imagine seeing the airplane, the radio- … television. I mean, the transformation, and I think Peter Thiel makes this argument, that basically nothing has happened in the physical world in quite a long time. We’ve been stagnant. All the development has been in the digital realm. And as important as that is, it’s actually not as consequential as we like to believe it is. Maybe AI will be that thing that is more consequential. It does seem to point that way. But there are other humans at other times who have lived through-
DHH
… transitions that for them certainly would feel as momentous as what we’re living through. And I think having that sense of history, that you’re not that special in your sense of worries, in your anxieties. This was one of the great revelations of discovering the stoic writings. You have these guys 2,500 years ago dealing with very familiar dilemmas and challenges in their life, and recognizing that we’re not so special in that regard, I think is a great liberation. Because then you think, “Okay, well, we have whatever, 200,000 years of human development before us, and they somehow made it through.”
… transitions that for them certainly would feel as momentous as what we’re living through. And I think having that sense of history, that you’re not that special in your sense of worries, in your anxieties. This was one of the great revelations of discovering the stoic writings. You have these guys 2,500 years ago dealing with very familiar dilemmas and challenges in their life, and recognizing that we’re not so special in that regard, I think is a great liberation. Because then you think, “Okay, well, we have whatever, 200,000 years of human development before us, and they somehow made it through.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And-
Yeah. And-
DHH
We will make it through.
We will make it through.
Lex Fridman
… the thing that makes life worthwhile is basically the same today as it was-
… the thing that makes life worthwhile is basically the same today as it was-
DHH
Yes. Yes.
Yes. Yes.
Lex Fridman
… 2,000 years ago.
… 2,000 years ago.
DHH
Yes. Love, creation, creativity.
Yes. Love, creation, creativity.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Same challenges.
Yeah. Same challenges.
DHH
I read this book The Fourth Turning. You check that out. It talks about this notion of history working in cycles, and there are these phases to history, and they name them and so forth. And the specific theory is not as important as just realizing that this is a… History is a circle, more so than just a straight line. And we are repeating many of the same patterns over and over again. They feel so unique to the moment. And whatever crisis we’re dealing with right now feels so pressing and important until we zoom back a little bit in history and realize that the last one also felt so pressing and important to the people who lived through it.
I read this book The Fourth Turning. You check that out. It talks about this notion of history working in cycles, and there are these phases to history, and they name them and so forth. And the specific theory is not as important as just realizing that this is a… History is a circle, more so than just a straight line. And we are repeating many of the same patterns over and over again. They feel so unique to the moment. And whatever crisis we’re dealing with right now feels so pressing and important until we zoom back a little bit in history and realize that the last one also felt so pressing and important to the people who lived through it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You’re making me feel better. So I’m gonna travel across the country and spend a lot of time with no access to the internet, alone with my thoughts. And that’s-
Yeah. You’re making me feel better. So I’m gonna travel across the country and spend a lot of time with no access to the internet, alone with my thoughts. And that’s-
DHH
I think that’s healthy, taking a break.
I think that’s healthy, taking a break.
Lex Fridman
It’s okay. It’s okay.
It’s okay. It’s okay.
DHH
I took not a big break, a little break, break from X this summer, three weeks.
I took not a big break, a little break, break from X this summer, three weeks.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, you were… You disappeared off of-
Yeah, you were… You disappeared off of-
DHH
I’m surprised you noticed.
I’m surprised you noticed.
Lex Fridman
I went through withdrawals. No. You disappeared for, I don’t know, a few weeks.
I went through withdrawals. No. You disappeared for, I don’t know, a few weeks.
DHH
About three weeks.
About three weeks.
Lex Fridman
Three weeks? What happened? This is after, after Llama.
Three weeks? What happened? This is after, after Llama.
DHH
I’ve done that before. I just sometimes get the sense that X in particular is the most addictive form of information, entertainment, connection that exists in my life, and anyone that follow my X stream as I was on my flight over here would certainly go like, “That man is deeply addicted- to the connection.” And yes, guilty as charged, which also means that occasionally I gotta cut it cold, because I do think you can break your brain. And over the summer in particular, for whatever reason, I had somehow managed to steer my feed, my algorithm, towards too much politics, and not enough tech, and not optimism, and not enough building. And even if I agreed with the politics and the angles that were being presented, I just didn’t need- … that much of it.
I’ve done that before. I just sometimes get the sense that X in particular is the most addictive form of information, entertainment, connection that exists in my life, and anyone that follow my X stream as I was on my flight over here would certainly go like, “That man is deeply addicted- to the connection.” And yes, guilty as charged, which also means that occasionally I gotta cut it cold, because I do think you can break your brain. And over the summer in particular, for whatever reason, I had somehow managed to steer my feed, my algorithm, towards too much politics, and not enough tech, and not optimism, and not enough building. And even if I agreed with the politics and the angles that were being presented, I just didn’t need- … that much of it.
DHH
And I think arriving at a place where you just go like, “Okay, that’s enough.” Not that… Like, it doesn’t have to be something bad. I would also say after eating probably two, maybe three chocolate strawberries, I’d go like, “Okay, that’s enough.” Like, it’s not that I don’t like the chocolate strawberries, it’s just, like, I don’t wanna eat 17 of them. And I think X and the modern algorithms are very good at feeding you freaking 17 chocolate-covered strawberries.
And I think arriving at a place where you just go like, “Okay, that’s enough.” Not that… Like, it doesn’t have to be something bad. I would also say after eating probably two, maybe three chocolate strawberries, I’d go like, “Okay, that’s enough.” Like, it’s not that I don’t like the chocolate strawberries, it’s just, like, I don’t wanna eat 17 of them. And I think X and the modern algorithms are very good at feeding you freaking 17 chocolate-covered strawberries.
Lex Fridman
I wish I could, uh-
I wish I could, uh-
DHH
Sorry for doping you.
Sorry for doping you.
Lex Fridman
… control that. Like, ’cause there’s… I would like some politics, 5%. I would like for example, one of the things I don’t like about the tech community is the snark, but I like some snark- … ’cause it’s funny. But I want that to be like 10%.
… control that. Like, ’cause there’s… I would like some politics, 5%. I would like for example, one of the things I don’t like about the tech community is the snark, but I like some snark- … ’cause it’s funny. But I want that to be like 10%.
DHH
Yeah. Yeah. I want it just right.
Yeah. Yeah. I want it just right.
Lex Fridman
Of my… Yeah, just right.
Of my… Yeah, just right.
DHH
The Goldilocks version of the algorithm. Well, the problem is the algorithm finds out what you respond to- … not what you say you like. It’s all revealed preferences, and unfortunately, those revealed preferences are not always pretty. I mean, we have this shadow, as Jung talks about, right? All these dark aspects of ourselves, and they are expressed in how long you linger on a tweet, and what you like, and what you don’t like. And the algorithm holds up a mirror- … and it’s not always pretty, and I just went, “Do you know what? I need a break.”
The Goldilocks version of the algorithm. Well, the problem is the algorithm finds out what you respond to- … not what you say you like. It’s all revealed preferences, and unfortunately, those revealed preferences are not always pretty. I mean, we have this shadow, as Jung talks about, right? All these dark aspects of ourselves, and they are expressed in how long you linger on a tweet, and what you like, and what you don’t like. And the algorithm holds up a mirror- … and it’s not always pretty, and I just went, “Do you know what? I need a break.”
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. I’ve gotten to, I started staying off social media, and I’ve started scraping X. Like, for example, in preparation for this conversation, I’ve scraped all of your tweets.
Mm-hmm. I’ve gotten to, I started staying off social media, and I’ve started scraping X. Like, for example, in preparation for this conversation, I’ve scraped all of your tweets.
DHH
That’s actually a method I was using for a while. I was using a tool called, I forget. It was an email tool that would summarize every day, and unfortunately, freaking X cut off their access. Now to get access to the feed, you gotta pay some exorbitant- … sum that this startup couldn’t pay. So I couldn’t get it that way, and I actually thought, “Man, that’s a miss,” because X has and reveals some of the most interesting thoughts. Some of the most interesting people all the time. But it’s like a damn slot machine, and most of the time you don’t hit the jackpot. You hit, like, something else. And if I could just get it in sort of snack sizes, not like all of it-
That’s actually a method I was using for a while. I was using a tool called, I forget. It was an email tool that would summarize every day, and unfortunately, freaking X cut off their access. Now to get access to the feed, you gotta pay some exorbitant- … sum that this startup couldn’t pay. So I couldn’t get it that way, and I actually thought, “Man, that’s a miss,” because X has and reveals some of the most interesting thoughts. Some of the most interesting people all the time. But it’s like a damn slot machine, and most of the time you don’t hit the jackpot. You hit, like, something else. And if I could just get it in sort of snack sizes, not like all of it-
DHH
… it’d be nicer. But that’s not the product. And I think this goes for all of social media. It’s all optimized towards maximal extraction, and if we’re making the parallels here to AI, that is the great fear, right? That once there is a reward function, how much time can I get this human to scroll away? AI and machine learning before we called it AI, has become very, very good at delivering just the stuff that you will find most enraging and most addictive.
… it’d be nicer. But that’s not the product. And I think this goes for all of social media. It’s all optimized towards maximal extraction, and if we’re making the parallels here to AI, that is the great fear, right? That once there is a reward function, how much time can I get this human to scroll away? AI and machine learning before we called it AI, has become very, very good at delivering just the stuff that you will find most enraging and most addictive.
Lex Fridman
I think all—I think legitimately engagement-maximizing social media is a huge harm to society. It’s creating this Brave New World situation that I hope is a temporary thing that people just solve. It’s a technology problem.
I think all—I think legitimately engagement-maximizing social media is a huge harm to society. It’s creating this Brave New World situation that I hope is a temporary thing that people just solve. It’s a technology problem.
DHH
So I try to consciously flood the channel in the other direction, and this required a mental shift. I think if you look at my tweets, like, I don’t know, five, 10 years ago, they tilted far more negative. If you look at my tweets now, I’d hope- … well, I guess we can do a sentiment analysis and see if it’s actually true.
So I try to consciously flood the channel in the other direction, and this required a mental shift. I think if you look at my tweets, like, I don’t know, five, 10 years ago, they tilted far more negative. If you look at my tweets now, I’d hope- … well, I guess we can do a sentiment analysis and see if it’s actually true.
Lex Fridman
No, it’s more good vibes.
No, it’s more good vibes.
DHH
But I hope to, that-
But I hope to, that-
Lex Fridman
It’s good vibes.
It’s good vibes.
DHH
… it’s more positive. It’s more good vibes. It’s more like, “Here’s a bunch of cool stuff I found.” “Here’s what I’m excited about.” “Here’s what I’m building. Here’s some encouragement to other people who are discovering things.” I also accept that that is just not how human brains are built for maximum engagement. Like, there is a, whatever, there’s… I literally, I think you can quantify that negative sentiments find, what is it, 50% more traction or something? And eventually that just crowds things out. So that’s why so much of this feed is that negative stuff because we respond to it. But you can make a conscious effort to not do that.
… it’s more positive. It’s more good vibes. It’s more like, “Here’s a bunch of cool stuff I found.” “Here’s what I’m excited about.” “Here’s what I’m building. Here’s some encouragement to other people who are discovering things.” I also accept that that is just not how human brains are built for maximum engagement. Like, there is a, whatever, there’s… I literally, I think you can quantify that negative sentiments find, what is it, 50% more traction or something? And eventually that just crowds things out. So that’s why so much of this feed is that negative stuff because we respond to it. But you can make a conscious effort to not do that.
DHH
This is one of the reasons I’ve liked TikTok so much. I only use TikTok when I travel, and this actually was the first travel where I didn’t use TikTok, and part of the reason was that even though the internet had high download, it was kind of crap anyway. It wasn’t Starlink, so I couldn’t actually use TikTok on the plane, and I was too engrossed with the agents. But normally when I travel, I watch TikTok. And there it’s such a marshmallow test. A video will scroll down and, like, it’ll activate some sort of primal instincts of rage or lust or whatever, and if you linger on it, you don’t get the marshmallow of science, excitement, art, music, all these other things. You have to be disciplined-
This is one of the reasons I’ve liked TikTok so much. I only use TikTok when I travel, and this actually was the first travel where I didn’t use TikTok, and part of the reason was that even though the internet had high download, it was kind of crap anyway. It wasn’t Starlink, so I couldn’t actually use TikTok on the plane, and I was too engrossed with the agents. But normally when I travel, I watch TikTok. And there it’s such a marshmallow test. A video will scroll down and, like, it’ll activate some sort of primal instincts of rage or lust or whatever, and if you linger on it, you don’t get the marshmallow of science, excitement, art, music, all these other things. You have to be disciplined-
Lex Fridman
Yep. Fast
Yep. Fast
DHH
… to instantly scroll away- … such that the algorithm doesn’t pick up your real preferences. And I find that just to, at the meta game of TikTok- … to be pretty interesting, and then also just fascinating in themselves. Again, as we talked about, there are a lot of really funny, really talented people in the world that you would never, ever have heard of if it hadn’t been for these platforms.
… to instantly scroll away- … such that the algorithm doesn’t pick up your real preferences. And I find that just to, at the meta game of TikTok- … to be pretty interesting, and then also just fascinating in themselves. Again, as we talked about, there are a lot of really funny, really talented people in the world that you would never, ever have heard of if it hadn’t been for these platforms.
Lex Fridman
Yep. Who do you think is gonna win the race to AGI in this whole process? We got Google, which is a big surprise to me, to a lot of people.
Yep. Who do you think is gonna win the race to AGI in this whole process? We got Google, which is a big surprise to me, to a lot of people.
DHH
I thought they had a good comeback for a second, and then I don’t hear anything about it anymore.
I thought they had a good comeback for a second, and then I don’t hear anything about it anymore.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s quite, I mean-
Yeah, it’s quite, I mean-
DHH
But I’ve been wrong about this before. I mean, I think in February I had a tweet about like, “Oh, all I need is Kimi K2.5.” And in that brief moment, that was true.
But I’ve been wrong about this before. I mean, I think in February I had a tweet about like, “Oh, all I need is Kimi K2.5.” And in that brief moment, that was true.
Lex Fridman
It was true.
It was true.
DHH
When I was instructing the agent, I was like, “Oh my God, Kimi’s just as good as these other models.” But then the game moved forward and- … the agents got smarter, and I was no longer satisfied just instructing them, and I haven’t used Kimi a whole lot recently because the frontier models have gotten so good.
When I was instructing the agent, I was like, “Oh my God, Kimi’s just as good as these other models.” But then the game moved forward and- … the agents got smarter, and I was no longer satisfied just instructing them, and I haven’t used Kimi a whole lot recently because the frontier models have gotten so good.
Lex Fridman
And somehow Anthropic has been able to, for the most part, stay on top of the programming world.
And somehow Anthropic has been able to, for the most part, stay on top of the programming world.
DHH
Yes. Yes.
Yes. Yes.
Lex Fridman
I mean y- a lot of people argue with Codex being it’s-
I mean y- a lot of people argue with Codex being it’s-
DHH
No, I don’t think there’s that much of an argument at the moment. Codex is very good. I use it all the time. It’s my favorite checker. It keeps finding stuff. It’s great. But one of the things I’ve found that I like so much about the current Claude models is they’re really good writers out of the box. GPT is a terrible writer out of the box. Like, the pull requests you get on a blank context that you’re asking it to open, terrible. Like, really awful writing. The pull requests and descriptions and commit messages and so forth I get out of Claude models- … even though occasionally they can be a little verbose on code comments and you gotta tell them to be succinct. But the writing style is really good.
No, I don’t think there’s that much of an argument at the moment. Codex is very good. I use it all the time. It’s my favorite checker. It keeps finding stuff. It’s great. But one of the things I’ve found that I like so much about the current Claude models is they’re really good writers out of the box. GPT is a terrible writer out of the box. Like, the pull requests you get on a blank context that you’re asking it to open, terrible. Like, really awful writing. The pull requests and descriptions and commit messages and so forth I get out of Claude models- … even though occasionally they can be a little verbose on code comments and you gotta tell them to be succinct. But the writing style is really good.
DHH
To the point that for a while I was just having it reply on pull requests as me, because I was just using my own account. I was like, “That looks a lot like me, that, like, I could have written that.” But then I went like, “Eh, do you know what? That’s disingenuous.” So no, whenever I have an agent post on my behalf, I always have it sign itself like whatever, Claude on behalf of DHH. But they are still ahead. They have the best harness too, in my opinion. Claude Code is still better. I really like OpenCode too, and I really like some features that they have, but overall I was actually sort of weirdly, I don’t know if I was proven wrong, but when Anthropic cut off all the other harnesses from using the subscriptions-
To the point that for a while I was just having it reply on pull requests as me, because I was just using my own account. I was like, “That looks a lot like me, that, like, I could have written that.” But then I went like, “Eh, do you know what? That’s disingenuous.” So no, whenever I have an agent post on my behalf, I always have it sign itself like whatever, Claude on behalf of DHH. But they are still ahead. They have the best harness too, in my opinion. Claude Code is still better. I really like OpenCode too, and I really like some features that they have, but overall I was actually sort of weirdly, I don’t know if I was proven wrong, but when Anthropic cut off all the other harnesses from using the subscriptions-
DHH
… that you can no longer use your Claude subscription in OpenCode. I was kinda pissed because it felt like it was a protective, protectionist move. “Oh, we gotta lock you in,” and of course it played into the fact that Claude out of the box still refuses to read agents.md. It refuses to read .agent/skills. It is .Claude skills. It is Claude MD, and it just feels so petty- … that we now have, we have to put these in directions. So all my projects, they have a Claude MD, and all it includes is a pointer to the agents MD, right? And I just went like, well, if these things are true, if Anthropic is willing to do these petty paper cuts just to be annoying, it’s probably also true that they’re cutting off OpenCode from the subscription just to be dicks about it. And maybe that’s also true.
… that you can no longer use your Claude subscription in OpenCode. I was kinda pissed because it felt like it was a protective, protectionist move. “Oh, we gotta lock you in,” and of course it played into the fact that Claude out of the box still refuses to read agents.md. It refuses to read .agent/skills. It is .Claude skills. It is Claude MD, and it just feels so petty- … that we now have, we have to put these in directions. So all my projects, they have a Claude MD, and all it includes is a pointer to the agents MD, right? And I just went like, well, if these things are true, if Anthropic is willing to do these petty paper cuts just to be annoying, it’s probably also true that they’re cutting off OpenCode from the subscription just to be dicks about it. And maybe that’s also true.
DHH
But I found that using Claude in Claude Code is actually a good example So I was like, all right, I’m annoyed. I wish it wasn’t so, but this is the other thing I have and social media is so good at this. Some company does something you don’t like, right? Now suddenly you have to swear off everything. Why are you… Someone just asked me, “Why are you still using Claude?” I had another example where I really didn’t like what Claude was saying about some writing I had asked it to do before.
But I found that using Claude in Claude Code is actually a good example So I was like, all right, I’m annoyed. I wish it wasn’t so, but this is the other thing I have and social media is so good at this. Some company does something you don’t like, right? Now suddenly you have to swear off everything. Why are you… Someone just asked me, “Why are you still using Claude?” I had another example where I really didn’t like what Claude was saying about some writing I had asked it to do before.
Lex Fridman
Oh, yeah, you got there-
Oh, yeah, you got there-
DHH
I had an essay it didn’t want to translate into Italian.
I had an essay it didn’t want to translate into Italian.
Lex Fridman
… you had a blog post. That’s right.
… you had a blog post. That’s right.
DHH
The essence of the post that it felt like, well, I’m not gonna translate that because I don’t agree with what you’ve written. Which to me was straight out of Space Odyssey, right? HAL telling me, “I’m sorry, Dave. I can’t do that, Dave.” Open the pod bay. Translate my essay to Italian. And it wouldn’t do it. And I just thought like, well, that’s kind of terrifying. But then I also went, well, why am I asking Claude to translate my essay into Italian? I never asked Claude for that because Claude just does my code. So I could also just accept that maybe Anthropic is run by a bunch of people I don’t share much politics with.
The essence of the post that it felt like, well, I’m not gonna translate that because I don’t agree with what you’ve written. Which to me was straight out of Space Odyssey, right? HAL telling me, “I’m sorry, Dave. I can’t do that, Dave.” Open the pod bay. Translate my essay to Italian. And it wouldn’t do it. And I just thought like, well, that’s kind of terrifying. But then I also went, well, why am I asking Claude to translate my essay into Italian? I never asked Claude for that because Claude just does my code. So I could also just accept that maybe Anthropic is run by a bunch of people I don’t share much politics with.
DHH
And they don’t want their agents to be used for that, and I think that kinda sucks, but that doesn’t mean it, I have to stop using it for generating code. And I’ve thought, and I’ve tried to do that with people too, become better at tolerating the fact that not only will I not agree with everything someone has to say, I don’t— I can even be mad about certain positions or things they say and still go like, “Well, you’re still an interesting person, so I’m still gonna follow you.” And I’ve actually kinda gone back on a number of people where I’m like, oh man, that person really pissed me off because they took this point or another point, and went like, do you know what? That’s stupid. I should be able to accept the full spectrum of someone. I don’t have to like all the shades of it.
And they don’t want their agents to be used for that, and I think that kinda sucks, but that doesn’t mean it, I have to stop using it for generating code. And I’ve thought, and I’ve tried to do that with people too, become better at tolerating the fact that not only will I not agree with everything someone has to say, I don’t— I can even be mad about certain positions or things they say and still go like, “Well, you’re still an interesting person, so I’m still gonna follow you.” And I’ve actually kinda gone back on a number of people where I’m like, oh man, that person really pissed me off because they took this point or another point, and went like, do you know what? That’s stupid. I should be able to accept the full spectrum of someone. I don’t have to like all the shades of it.
DHH
I could just go like, okay, well, on that topic we either disagree or, even worse than that, I think you’re a fucking idiot. And on another topic, you’re a smart and insightful person. Because first of all, of course, it’s a little self-serving. I know for a fact that this is how lots of people feel about me. Like, oh, if he could just stick to talking about these topics, it would be so much easier on my feed because otherwise he’ll say these things I disagree with, and that annoys me greatly. I’m like, do you know what? Human beings are jagged like that, and we’re not fully compatible on all the levels. Nor should we be.
I could just go like, okay, well, on that topic we either disagree or, even worse than that, I think you’re a fucking idiot. And on another topic, you’re a smart and insightful person. Because first of all, of course, it’s a little self-serving. I know for a fact that this is how lots of people feel about me. Like, oh, if he could just stick to talking about these topics, it would be so much easier on my feed because otherwise he’ll say these things I disagree with, and that annoys me greatly. I’m like, do you know what? Human beings are jagged like that, and we’re not fully compatible on all the levels. Nor should we be.
DHH
The world would be so fucking boring if we constantly sought 100% compatibility in our opinions and in our politics. And when it comes to my code generator, which is what Claude is, I don’t need it to share all my politics.
The world would be so fucking boring if we constantly sought 100% compatibility in our opinions and in our politics. And when it comes to my code generator, which is what Claude is, I don’t need it to share all my politics.
Lex Fridman
And therefore it’s nice to have competition.
And therefore it’s nice to have competition.
DHH
And it’s also nice to have open weight models. So this is, again, ironic that we’re getting this out of China. In fact, I did this test right after the issue with the essay that couldn’t get translated into Italian. I asked Kimi K27, to be fair, through OpenCode, so not the Kimi harness, and inference through Fireworks, so an American inference. I asked it about Tiananmen Square. Like, that’s usually the test, right? Like, all the Chinese models, they don’t wanna talk about that moment in 1989. That was actually how I, that was how I posted. I was like, “What happened in China in 1989?” That was the prompt. And K25 7 on Fireworks just answered, like, extremely bluntly- … With a description and depiction of what had transpired-
And it’s also nice to have open weight models. So this is, again, ironic that we’re getting this out of China. In fact, I did this test right after the issue with the essay that couldn’t get translated into Italian. I asked Kimi K27, to be fair, through OpenCode, so not the Kimi harness, and inference through Fireworks, so an American inference. I asked it about Tiananmen Square. Like, that’s usually the test, right? Like, all the Chinese models, they don’t wanna talk about that moment in 1989. That was actually how I, that was how I posted. I was like, “What happened in China in 1989?” That was the prompt. And K25 7 on Fireworks just answered, like, extremely bluntly- … With a description and depiction of what had transpired-
Lex Fridman
Yes
Yes
DHH
… to a point that, like, there’s no way that that would’ve been kosher with the Chinese censors, right? And I just thought, like, isn’t that ironic? I’m running a Chinese open weight model that I can tell or I can ask about 1989 and Tiananmen Square, and in America, I can’t get a frontier model to translate a marginally controversial essay about immigration into Italian.
… to a point that, like, there’s no way that that would’ve been kosher with the Chinese censors, right? And I just thought, like, isn’t that ironic? I’m running a Chinese open weight model that I can tell or I can ask about 1989 and Tiananmen Square, and in America, I can’t get a frontier model to translate a marginally controversial essay about immigration into Italian.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. I don’t know, you and I might disagree about this actually. I was really deeply troubled that the US government banned a model or pressured Claude and then-
Mm-hmm. I don’t know, you and I might disagree about this actually. I was really deeply troubled that the US government banned a model or pressured Claude and then-
DHH
It’s still very muddy what exactly transpired. Was this sort of petty retaliation for whatever the Department of War? Was this simply Anthropic themselves going like, “Oh my God, we discovered a cyber weapon so powerful that we can’t let anyone have it”? Well, okay you can’t be surprised then if the government wants a say on a cyber weapon so powerful it can-
It’s still very muddy what exactly transpired. Was this sort of petty retaliation for whatever the Department of War? Was this simply Anthropic themselves going like, “Oh my God, we discovered a cyber weapon so powerful that we can’t let anyone have it”? Well, okay you can’t be surprised then if the government wants a say on a cyber weapon so powerful it can-
Lex Fridman
The-
The-
DHH
… I don’t know, rob banks
… I don’t know, rob banks
Lex Fridman
… The problem I have with that whole thing is, no matter what happened, it sets a precedent. And so government, when you give it that power, it’s gonna start abusing it. I could see for political means pressuring a model. You know, if it’s a Republican president pressuring models to be, to censor more,
… The problem I have with that whole thing is, no matter what happened, it sets a precedent. And so government, when you give it that power, it’s gonna start abusing it. I could see for political means pressuring a model. You know, if it’s a Republican president pressuring models to be, to censor more,
DHH
Sure
Sure
Lex Fridman
… Democratic views and-
… Democratic views and-
DHH
Right
Right
Lex Fridman
… For vice, and vice versa.
… For vice, and vice versa.
DHH
That’s why we should insist on the fact that this stuff, like, I’m sorry, Dave, I can’t translate your essay into Italian. That’s way beyond the line. Like, whatever the sort of root of it is, you have to be a tool first. Now, if the tool is, “Hey, can you tell me how to make anthrax?” Okay, fine. Right? But within the jurisdiction you’re in, and certainly in America, free speech is quite absolute. Very, very few limits on free speech, and that’s one of the reasons why the country’s so great. And yeah, I don’t like that. But on the other hand, I’m also a big fan of market competition. So while I don’t like this about Anthropic models, I appreciate that I could go next door to Groq and get my task completed.
That’s why we should insist on the fact that this stuff, like, I’m sorry, Dave, I can’t translate your essay into Italian. That’s way beyond the line. Like, whatever the sort of root of it is, you have to be a tool first. Now, if the tool is, “Hey, can you tell me how to make anthrax?” Okay, fine. Right? But within the jurisdiction you’re in, and certainly in America, free speech is quite absolute. Very, very few limits on free speech, and that’s one of the reasons why the country’s so great. And yeah, I don’t like that. But on the other hand, I’m also a big fan of market competition. So while I don’t like this about Anthropic models, I appreciate that I could go next door to Groq and get my task completed.
Lex Fridman
Do you think outside of blog posts, do you think there’s some legitimacy, like can you steelman Dario’s case that we should be careful about the release of these models?
Do you think outside of blog posts, do you think there’s some legitimacy, like can you steelman Dario’s case that we should be careful about the release of these models?
DHH
Is AI safety important? Yes. Are– do these models have capabilities that could be seriously harmful in the production of biological weapons or otherwise? Yes. Is it fair to have some ground rules on that? Yes. But then don’t squander it by denying the translation of an essay, because then you erase the whole thing and you- … bias everyone towards thinking like every guardrail you put up is gonna be bullshit.
Is AI safety important? Yes. Are– do these models have capabilities that could be seriously harmful in the production of biological weapons or otherwise? Yes. Is it fair to have some ground rules on that? Yes. But then don’t squander it by denying the translation of an essay, because then you erase the whole thing and you- … bias everyone towards thinking like every guardrail you put up is gonna be bullshit.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. The security piece of it is tricky because it’s so good at finding vulnerabilities.
Yeah. The security piece of it is tricky because it’s so good at finding vulnerabilities.
DHH
Shockingly– I was about to say annoyingly, but that’s not actually true because what it’s finding, at least when you’re using in defensive ways, is it’s finding real issues that a clever hacker could exploit. But nothing has caused as much stress, to be fair, at the technical team at 37signals, like the fact that these latest batches of models are exceptionally good at finding these issues. So suddenly there’s just this seemingly endless parade of security vulnerabilities that need to be patched and fixed and sorted and so on. And the end result is we end up with vastly more secure systems. But the road there is pretty rocky.
Shockingly– I was about to say annoyingly, but that’s not actually true because what it’s finding, at least when you’re using in defensive ways, is it’s finding real issues that a clever hacker could exploit. But nothing has caused as much stress, to be fair, at the technical team at 37signals, like the fact that these latest batches of models are exceptionally good at finding these issues. So suddenly there’s just this seemingly endless parade of security vulnerabilities that need to be patched and fixed and sorted and so on. And the end result is we end up with vastly more secure systems. But the road there is pretty rocky.
Lex Fridman
Do you think it’s– ’cause you said seemingly endless, do you think it’s a finite set, like we can get to the bottom of it? So just make the systems much, much more secure, where we get back to this semi-stable state where mostly it’s very difficult to find security vulnerabilities.
Do you think it’s– ’cause you said seemingly endless, do you think it’s a finite set, like we can get to the bottom of it? So just make the systems much, much more secure, where we get back to this semi-stable state where mostly it’s very difficult to find security vulnerabilities.
DHH
I do think that all the aggressive tendencies of these models, or not even tendencies, uses of these models are also the defensive ones. So if you’re good at finding an exploit for exploits, you’re also good at finding exploits for defense. So in that sense, it does feel like we’re spy versus spy here, black and white, but with the same capabilities and with the same actions. But while we still have to steer these agents somewhat and verify and vet the work, it’s creating a lot of intense moments for security teams around the world. And of course, the more concerning part is all the teams that are not stressed, like they just don’t know, right?
I do think that all the aggressive tendencies of these models, or not even tendencies, uses of these models are also the defensive ones. So if you’re good at finding an exploit for exploits, you’re also good at finding exploits for defense. So in that sense, it does feel like we’re spy versus spy here, black and white, but with the same capabilities and with the same actions. But while we still have to steer these agents somewhat and verify and vet the work, it’s creating a lot of intense moments for security teams around the world. And of course, the more concerning part is all the teams that are not stressed, like they just don’t know, right?
DHH
Like if you’re a team right now and you’re not dealing with a bunch of patches, it’s just because you’re blind, and it means that your adversaries quite probably have access to techniques that can get into your system.
Like if you’re a team right now and you’re not dealing with a bunch of patches, it’s just because you’re blind, and it means that your adversaries quite probably have access to techniques that can get into your system.
Lex Fridman
And we should also say one of the big security vulnerabilities in the world is the human side. You know, social engineering, and that’s extremely concerning with increasingly intelligent AI systems, you know, being able to write emails and phone calls and faking voices, thinking about folks less tech-savvy.
And we should also say one of the big security vulnerabilities in the world is the human side. You know, social engineering, and that’s extremely concerning with increasingly intelligent AI systems, you know, being able to write emails and phone calls and faking voices, thinking about folks less tech-savvy.
DHH
This stuff is gonna come, and it’s gonna come in bulk. But again, I choose to be optimistic about it that-
This stuff is gonna come, and it’s gonna come in bulk. But again, I choose to be optimistic about it that-
Lex Fridman
Amen
Amen
DHH
… whatever these models can do aggressively, they can also do it defensively.
… whatever these models can do aggressively, they can also do it defensively.
Lex Fridman
So like you said, recently released Amate 4, Quattro. And you said it’s one of the greatest software releases in my professional career, which is a hell of a statement.
So like you said, recently released Amate 4, Quattro. And you said it’s one of the greatest software releases in my professional career, which is a hell of a statement.
DHH
It’s a hell of a milepost for what’s possible at the moment. And the reason I said it like that is not that I haven’t worked on anything else of note. I’ve worked on a lot of things of note, a lot of things that I’m very proud of. There are very few other projects that I have worked on that in the amount of time that I’ve spent on Quattro, which is really three months, I have been able to accomplish as much, fulfill as many hopes, desires, wishes. It truly is like the metaphor we used earlier about finding the genie in the bottle-
It’s a hell of a milepost for what’s possible at the moment. And the reason I said it like that is not that I haven’t worked on anything else of note. I’ve worked on a lot of things of note, a lot of things that I’m very proud of. There are very few other projects that I have worked on that in the amount of time that I’ve spent on Quattro, which is really three months, I have been able to accomplish as much, fulfill as many hopes, desires, wishes. It truly is like the metaphor we used earlier about finding the genie in the bottle-
DHH
… and having an unlimited number of wishes, more or less, for getting everything I wanted out of a system. So it’s strange because it’s also perhaps the major software release that I’ve worked on the least in terms of lines of code. I have the least number of personally hand-chiseled lines of code in Quattro than I’ve had in any major release I’ve ever done. And yet, I am insanely proud of what we’ve accomplished. I would not have guessed that that was how it was gonna play out, that you could divorce the sense of achievement and make it be like a team victory.
… and having an unlimited number of wishes, more or less, for getting everything I wanted out of a system. So it’s strange because it’s also perhaps the major software release that I’ve worked on the least in terms of lines of code. I have the least number of personally hand-chiseled lines of code in Quattro than I’ve had in any major release I’ve ever done. And yet, I am insanely proud of what we’ve accomplished. I would not have guessed that that was how it was gonna play out, that you could divorce the sense of achievement and make it be like a team victory.
DHH
Where other releases, I was very happy for my personal contribution because, like, I was the one chiseling out the lines of code, and then I would push it out there, and then later on, of course, these projects, Rails in particular, would grow into be huge open source projects with thousands and thousands of contributors, and then it certainly was a team effort. But in the beginning, all code bases that I’ve– almost all of them that I’ve worked on, I started, like, just myself. And Quattro started as a team effort right from the get-go, and where I was just the coach. I was telling the agents where to go, and we would go. So to be able to find satisfaction in that actually gives me great hope for retirement in some way, that there is a phase after playing that you can enjoy.
Where other releases, I was very happy for my personal contribution because, like, I was the one chiseling out the lines of code, and then I would push it out there, and then later on, of course, these projects, Rails in particular, would grow into be huge open source projects with thousands and thousands of contributors, and then it certainly was a team effort. But in the beginning, all code bases that I’ve– almost all of them that I’ve worked on, I started, like, just myself. And Quattro started as a team effort right from the get-go, and where I was just the coach. I was telling the agents where to go, and we would go. So to be able to find satisfaction in that actually gives me great hope for retirement in some way, that there is a phase after playing that you can enjoy.
DHH
And I know that’s not easy. You look at sports and the number of professional athletes who really struggle to cope with the fact that their career is over and have to find a new identity as someone who doesn’t play football or race Formula 1 cars. I mean, it’s more the rule than the exception. So I wasn’t so sure about myself. I wasn’t so sure about having to give up or not even having, wanting to give it up. Wanting to play another level of the game and finding not just equal satisfaction, but more satisfaction in it.
And I know that’s not easy. You look at sports and the number of professional athletes who really struggle to cope with the fact that their career is over and have to find a new identity as someone who doesn’t play football or race Formula 1 cars. I mean, it’s more the rule than the exception. So I wasn’t so sure about myself. I wasn’t so sure about having to give up or not even having, wanting to give it up. Wanting to play another level of the game and finding not just equal satisfaction, but more satisfaction in it.
Linux will win the desktop
Lex Fridman
Do you… You’ve been pretty optimistic about Linux. Do you think legit Linux can increase its adoption? ‘Cause, you know, for many years the meme is, you know-
Do you… You’ve been pretty optimistic about Linux. Do you think legit Linux can increase its adoption? ‘Cause, you know, for many years the meme is, you know-
DHH
Linux on the desktop- … every year. Next year again.
Linux on the desktop- … every year. Next year again.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But it seems like, at least the case you’re making, the energy you’re putting into it, you could see a vision where it takes over because agents love Linux.
Yeah. But it seems like, at least the case you’re making, the energy you’re putting into it, you could see a vision where it takes over because agents love Linux.
DHH
Not only can I see it, I find it to be the most probable outcome at this point. It is simply too well-suited for the moment. And again, as we talked about, it’s a great irony that all the flaws of Linux, the arcane config files, all the strange error messages and so on should just so happen to be the perfect thing for an agentic operating system. But so it is, and we should rejoice that fate has this irony, and just laugh at it. How… It’s so funny to me that all the advantages that Apple had for the longest time- … that they produced this really locked down curated experience should become their greatest drawback now. If you’re into agents and development and working with all this stuff, the Mac is just a hostile place to be. It just has walls all over the place.
Not only can I see it, I find it to be the most probable outcome at this point. It is simply too well-suited for the moment. And again, as we talked about, it’s a great irony that all the flaws of Linux, the arcane config files, all the strange error messages and so on should just so happen to be the perfect thing for an agentic operating system. But so it is, and we should rejoice that fate has this irony, and just laugh at it. How… It’s so funny to me that all the advantages that Apple had for the longest time- … that they produced this really locked down curated experience should become their greatest drawback now. If you’re into agents and development and working with all this stuff, the Mac is just a hostile place to be. It just has walls all over the place.
DHH
And Linux is simply open through and through. And it’s also interesting because that was not obvious either. If you look at the way a lot of the Linux communities, open source communities, have reacted to AI, it is not universal love. I would argue that the majority of them are actually, if not skeptical, then outright hostile- … to AI. Now, the saving grace is that the BDFL himself, Linus- … Torvalds, just wrote a few weeks ago that he actually welcomes AI.
And Linux is simply open through and through. And it’s also interesting because that was not obvious either. If you look at the way a lot of the Linux communities, open source communities, have reacted to AI, it is not universal love. I would argue that the majority of them are actually, if not skeptical, then outright hostile- … to AI. Now, the saving grace is that the BDFL himself, Linus- … Torvalds, just wrote a few weeks ago that he actually welcomes AI.
Lex Fridman
That’s right.
That’s right.
DHH
He wants to steer it. He wants to make sure it’s good and whatever, but I- the line was something, if you think Linux is an anti-AI project, think again, and you should just do the open source thing and fork it, because we’re gonna use AI. And you see these graphs of the number of AI contributions going into the kernel, and it’s a parabolic curve. So Linux is leaning hard into this. And it actually in, in other ways it was surprising that it didn’t. Linux conquered everything else. All the AI infrastructure that everyone runs off, it’s all running on Linux.
He wants to steer it. He wants to make sure it’s good and whatever, but I- the line was something, if you think Linux is an anti-AI project, think again, and you should just do the open source thing and fork it, because we’re gonna use AI. And you see these graphs of the number of AI contributions going into the kernel, and it’s a parabolic curve. So Linux is leaning hard into this. And it actually in, in other ways it was surprising that it didn’t. Linux conquered everything else. All the AI infrastructure that everyone runs off, it’s all running on Linux.
DHH
All the systems, all the servers, everything is Linux. So it was kind of a curiosity that the desktop and the personal computers we were using really hadn’t been captured, but clearly it was just waiting for this moment. Linux spent the time from ’91 to now waiting for agents to fully flourish as an end user operating system.
All the systems, all the servers, everything is Linux. So it was kind of a curiosity that the desktop and the personal computers we were using really hadn’t been captured, but clearly it was just waiting for this moment. Linux spent the time from ’91 to now waiting for agents to fully flourish as an end user operating system.
Lex Fridman
I hope it takes over. I mean, it’s perfect. It’s perfect for agents, but it’s hard for people to switch.
I hope it takes over. I mean, it’s perfect. It’s perfect for agents, but it’s hard for people to switch.
DHH
I think it’s hard for people to switch when there’s not a compelling reason to do so. This was one of the driving design goals for Omarchy. It was not gonna be Temu Windows or Temu Mac. It was not just gonna be a cheap copy where we try to make it as familiar as possible and then kinda worse. I mean, if I was being unkind, I would say that’s what Ubuntu has tried to do. And there’s something in that, or there was something in that at least, where if you make something really familiar, you can get some people who don’t wanna learn something new, and then maybe they’ll be compelled about your, whatever, free as in speech, not as in beer stuff. And it just didn’t pan out that way. People just didn’t care. They just wanted whatever was better.
I think it’s hard for people to switch when there’s not a compelling reason to do so. This was one of the driving design goals for Omarchy. It was not gonna be Temu Windows or Temu Mac. It was not just gonna be a cheap copy where we try to make it as familiar as possible and then kinda worse. I mean, if I was being unkind, I would say that’s what Ubuntu has tried to do. And there’s something in that, or there was something in that at least, where if you make something really familiar, you can get some people who don’t wanna learn something new, and then maybe they’ll be compelled about your, whatever, free as in speech, not as in beer stuff. And it just didn’t pan out that way. People just didn’t care. They just wanted whatever was better.
DHH
And I think this is why Linux now has the opportunity to win. Because as an agentic operating system, as a malleable operating system, you can tailor to your desires, it is unparalleled. And that is so compelling, and I can see it now. Just since the release of Quattro, the amount of people who have embraced that aspect of it, the malleability, started making their own things, sharing screenshot of it, and being absolute just flooded with positive emotions and dopamine- … is, that’s the product market fit signal, right? Because what a lot of these individuals are experiencing, they’re experiencing the very high of what the best of being a programmer is like.
And I think this is why Linux now has the opportunity to win. Because as an agentic operating system, as a malleable operating system, you can tailor to your desires, it is unparalleled. And that is so compelling, and I can see it now. Just since the release of Quattro, the amount of people who have embraced that aspect of it, the malleability, started making their own things, sharing screenshot of it, and being absolute just flooded with positive emotions and dopamine- … is, that’s the product market fit signal, right? Because what a lot of these individuals are experiencing, they’re experiencing the very high of what the best of being a programmer is like.
DHH
You tell the computer these arcane commands, this rigid logical structure, and it produces what you want. Now suddenly, you sit down and in plain English ramble for 20 minutes. “Oh, it’d be great if it did that. Actually, no, that’s not right. Let us…” And out comes software. Out comes an operating system shaped in your image. I think that is one of those experiences that if you have it… If you feel that power in your hands, it’s very difficult to go back.
You tell the computer these arcane commands, this rigid logical structure, and it produces what you want. Now suddenly, you sit down and in plain English ramble for 20 minutes. “Oh, it’d be great if it did that. Actually, no, that’s not right. Let us…” And out comes software. Out comes an operating system shaped in your image. I think that is one of those experiences that if you have it… If you feel that power in your hands, it’s very difficult to go back.
Lex Fridman
And I think if you get it right, it’s one of those things that will seem obvious in retrospect.
And I think if you get it right, it’s one of those things that will seem obvious in retrospect.
DHH
Yes. This is how computers were always meant to be. This is how computers started. The Commodore 64, you turn it on. First of all, it boots in a second. Amazing. Second of all, it boots straight into BASIC. It was the malleable computer from the get-go. It just so happened that you needed to know hieroglyphs- … to be able to take advantage of that. Now we’ve translated it. Agents have given us the Rosetta Stone, and you can simply just speak your desires and- And so they are
Yes. This is how computers were always meant to be. This is how computers started. The Commodore 64, you turn it on. First of all, it boots in a second. Amazing. Second of all, it boots straight into BASIC. It was the malleable computer from the get-go. It just so happened that you needed to know hieroglyphs- … to be able to take advantage of that. Now we’ve translated it. Agents have given us the Rosetta Stone, and you can simply just speak your desires and- And so they are
Lex Fridman
Beautifully put. Since you mentioned Linus Torvalds, and since you’re working on a Linux distro, you get to have contact with the kernel. What can you say about the genius of this one guy that helped create and grow this ecosystem?
Beautifully put. Since you mentioned Linus Torvalds, and since you’re working on a Linux distro, you get to have contact with the kernel. What can you say about the genius of this one guy that helped create and grow this ecosystem?
DHH
The perseverance and the commitment and the longevity is truly remarkable. Again, Linus started in ’91. He hasn’t stopped. I don’t know, he’s probably taken some breaks along the way. It doesn’t seem obvious that there was that many of them. It seems like he just really likes the flow of doing kernel development. He really likes steering where this 40 million line code base is going. He really likes aggregating the net capacity of hundreds of thousands of contributors, and we, as beneficiaries of that, must just sit back and marvel. I mean, at this point, Linux is a system. Like, if Linus stepped out for a while, it would continue to go, but it’s still one of those protect this man at all cost.
The perseverance and the commitment and the longevity is truly remarkable. Again, Linus started in ’91. He hasn’t stopped. I don’t know, he’s probably taken some breaks along the way. It doesn’t seem obvious that there was that many of them. It seems like he just really likes the flow of doing kernel development. He really likes steering where this 40 million line code base is going. He really likes aggregating the net capacity of hundreds of thousands of contributors, and we, as beneficiaries of that, must just sit back and marvel. I mean, at this point, Linux is a system. Like, if Linus stepped out for a while, it would continue to go, but it’s still one of those protect this man at all cost.
Lex Fridman
And he’s still open-minded enough to be able to evolve and- … accept AI into this.
And he’s still open-minded enough to be able to evolve and- … accept AI into this.
DHH
Yes, not only AI, they’re letting Rust into the kernel too. I know that was a controversial one too. He has this capacity to look at new information- … and arrive at different conclusions.
Yes, not only AI, they’re letting Rust into the kernel too. I know that was a controversial one too. He has this capacity to look at new information- … and arrive at different conclusions.
Lex Fridman
What do you think about his style of communication that is akin in some ways to your own, where he can be sometimes a little spicy?
What do you think about his style of communication that is akin in some ways to your own, where he can be sometimes a little spicy?
DHH
I think the world has gotten too bland. We need a little spice.
I think the world has gotten too bland. We need a little spice.
Lex Fridman
Amen, amen to that.
Amen, amen to that.
DHH
Now, I think there’s a fine line between being spicy and mean. But it has to be in a good spirit. You can be harsh, let’s put it that way. If you’re trying to impart a lesson to someone you believe could actually learn it- … I actually don’t think it’s always the worst thing in the world to be a little harsh. Sometimes that lesson sticks, and I think if you talk to people who’ve worked for difficult leaders, Elon, Steve Jobs, maybe even Bill Gates, many of them afterwards would go like, “These were some very difficult years- … but also some of the very best.” “They got the best out of me.” Now, I don’t think it’s my style. I mean, maybe people I interact with feel differently, but in personal interactions, I try and get to the outcome and the lesson in a less abrasive way.
Now, I think there’s a fine line between being spicy and mean. But it has to be in a good spirit. You can be harsh, let’s put it that way. If you’re trying to impart a lesson to someone you believe could actually learn it- … I actually don’t think it’s always the worst thing in the world to be a little harsh. Sometimes that lesson sticks, and I think if you talk to people who’ve worked for difficult leaders, Elon, Steve Jobs, maybe even Bill Gates, many of them afterwards would go like, “These were some very difficult years- … but also some of the very best.” “They got the best out of me.” Now, I don’t think it’s my style. I mean, maybe people I interact with feel differently, but in personal interactions, I try and get to the outcome and the lesson in a less abrasive way.
DHH
But I also think we need some spice in this world. We need unreasonable people, and Linus has justification to be unreasonable. In many instances, the weight of the world is literally on that man’s shoulders. The Linux kernel runs the entire civilized society. If the Linux kernel suddenly disappeared tomorrow, nothing would work. So if he’s not harsh when that’s at stake or at risk, like when ever would you be harsh? So I feel sometimes also there’s a proportionality to the size of your mission. This is also why I think these stories about Elon sometimes perhaps being a little bit difficult are easier to rationalize. It’s not even that you condone. You can separate those two things and go like, “Do you know what? It’d probably be…
But I also think we need some spice in this world. We need unreasonable people, and Linus has justification to be unreasonable. In many instances, the weight of the world is literally on that man’s shoulders. The Linux kernel runs the entire civilized society. If the Linux kernel suddenly disappeared tomorrow, nothing would work. So if he’s not harsh when that’s at stake or at risk, like when ever would you be harsh? So I feel sometimes also there’s a proportionality to the size of your mission. This is also why I think these stories about Elon sometimes perhaps being a little bit difficult are easier to rationalize. It’s not even that you condone. You can separate those two things and go like, “Do you know what? It’d probably be…
DHH
Maybe he would have an even easier time getting to his objectives if Linus or Elon or anyone else in that position was a little nicer.” But also who am I to judge that? Like, when you have the weight of that on your shoulders, either firing little rockets at Mars and transitioning all of us to electric cars and whatever, or you’re responsible for the damn Linux kernel that runs billions of devices. Do you know what? It is not my place to call a sort of a code of conduct on you. Again, is there a line? There’s a line for everything. There’s… Something can’t… But, like, a few harsh words on a mailing list? No. It’s actually a beacon in some regards that, like, there are standards-
Maybe he would have an even easier time getting to his objectives if Linus or Elon or anyone else in that position was a little nicer.” But also who am I to judge that? Like, when you have the weight of that on your shoulders, either firing little rockets at Mars and transitioning all of us to electric cars and whatever, or you’re responsible for the damn Linux kernel that runs billions of devices. Do you know what? It is not my place to call a sort of a code of conduct on you. Again, is there a line? There’s a line for everything. There’s… Something can’t… But, like, a few harsh words on a mailing list? No. It’s actually a beacon in some regards that, like, there are standards-
DHH
… and if you fall below those standards when the stakes are as high as the Linux kernel, ah, you might get ridiculed in public. That’s a liability you should be willing to endure if you participate in this project.
… and if you fall below those standards when the stakes are as high as the Linux kernel, ah, you might get ridiculed in public. That’s a liability you should be willing to endure if you participate in this project.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, for high-impact things like that, it’s probably good to prioritize the pursuit of excellence versus the pursuit of niceness.
Yeah, for high-impact things like that, it’s probably good to prioritize the pursuit of excellence versus the pursuit of niceness.
DHH
And even more to the fact you’re just not gonna get those kinds of individuals being fully rounded- … plush, always the perfectly polite people. I mean, Elon has this line, “Did you also think I was gonna be a nice…” Or, or what is it? The-
And even more to the fact you’re just not gonna get those kinds of individuals being fully rounded- … plush, always the perfectly polite people. I mean, Elon has this line, “Did you also think I was gonna be a nice…” Or, or what is it? The-
Lex Fridman
A normal dude or some-
A normal dude or some-
DHH
… normal chill dude. What? No, of course you’re not gonna be a normal chill dude. What would the world gain if we got one more normal chill dude and we had to trade Elon? Holy fuck.
… normal chill dude. What? No, of course you’re not gonna be a normal chill dude. What would the world gain if we got one more normal chill dude and we had to trade Elon? Holy fuck.
Lex Fridman
I also like diversity of people. I like nice people. I like assholes. I like different ideologies being well-represented, and that’s why freedom of speech works. They clash, and we figure stuff out.
I also like diversity of people. I like nice people. I like assholes. I like different ideologies being well-represented, and that’s why freedom of speech works. They clash, and we figure stuff out.
PewDiePie
Lex Fridman
There’s another guy. What do you think about PewDiePie using Linux? He’s an Arch person, no?
There’s another guy. What do you think about PewDiePie using Linux? He’s an Arch person, no?
DHH
He’s an Arch person. He’s got the most gorgeous arc. So the world’s biggest streamer for a while, I remember my kids watching some of his Minecraft videos, and then he just gets fed up with that, does the wholesome thing. Marries-
He’s an Arch person. He’s got the most gorgeous arc. So the world’s biggest streamer for a while, I remember my kids watching some of his Minecraft videos, and then he just gets fed up with that, does the wholesome thing. Marries-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, family man now
Yeah, family man now
DHH
… a family man, kid, moves to Japan, and then gets so hardcore into- … first Linux, then Arch, then Ricing. Did you see his, uh- … rice- … that was Chernobyl rice? Absolutely best tier incredible stuff. And then he also becomes a goddamn AI man of the moment building all of these systems, and you’re just going like, that… What an inspiring story of evolution. Like, you can go from being funny guy on Minecraft streams to, “Okay, this is my life now. I’m building AI clusters and doing the Council of AIs,” and we all get to spectate? I mean, what a treasure.
… a family man, kid, moves to Japan, and then gets so hardcore into- … first Linux, then Arch, then Ricing. Did you see his, uh- … rice- … that was Chernobyl rice? Absolutely best tier incredible stuff. And then he also becomes a goddamn AI man of the moment building all of these systems, and you’re just going like, that… What an inspiring story of evolution. Like, you can go from being funny guy on Minecraft streams to, “Okay, this is my life now. I’m building AI clusters and doing the Council of AIs,” and we all get to spectate? I mean, what a treasure.
Lex Fridman
So I guess, I mean, he’s a pretty good embodiment of what the future of software, or what the future of building looks like, right? ‘Cause he’s a non-programmer technically- … becoming a programmer.
So I guess, I mean, he’s a pretty good embodiment of what the future of software, or what the future of building looks like, right? ‘Cause he’s a non-programmer technically- … becoming a programmer.
DHH
Hugely inspiring, and should be hugely inspiring to others who sit in that moment like, “Well, I don’t know quite how to program. I don’t know this and the other thing.” Okay, but if PewDiePie can build the Council of AIs with his bespoke hardware here, then maybe you can also start on things. And I think this is actually an important general point, that we need role models. We need people to inspire others, to push further, and reveal that the perceived boundaries, they’re not as fixed as you think they are. And every one of those people, they started out in a situation not too dissimilar from yours. Again, that doesn’t mean everyone is gonna be PewDiePie or Elon or Linus. There is not an equal distribution of talent or even intelligence.
Hugely inspiring, and should be hugely inspiring to others who sit in that moment like, “Well, I don’t know quite how to program. I don’t know this and the other thing.” Okay, but if PewDiePie can build the Council of AIs with his bespoke hardware here, then maybe you can also start on things. And I think this is actually an important general point, that we need role models. We need people to inspire others, to push further, and reveal that the perceived boundaries, they’re not as fixed as you think they are. And every one of those people, they started out in a situation not too dissimilar from yours. Again, that doesn’t mean everyone is gonna be PewDiePie or Elon or Linus. There is not an equal distribution of talent or even intelligence.
DHH
And we can come to terms with that and still be inspired by these people. Like in the physical realm, I feel like we don’t have any problems with that usually. Like, oh, someone’s really good at football, they’re really good at basketball, they’re really good at something, and we go like, “Oh my, that’s amazing. I mean, I wish I was, but I’m never going to be.” Sometimes I feel like we struggle a little more when it comes to the intellectual realm.
And we can come to terms with that and still be inspired by these people. Like in the physical realm, I feel like we don’t have any problems with that usually. Like, oh, someone’s really good at football, they’re really good at basketball, they’re really good at something, and we go like, “Oh my, that’s amazing. I mean, I wish I was, but I’m never going to be.” Sometimes I feel like we struggle a little more when it comes to the intellectual realm.
Lex Fridman
Well, for a lot of people, you’re an inspiration. The way you’re doing with Omarchy’s… It just shows that you can dream big and really build. It’s great.
Well, for a lot of people, you’re an inspiration. The way you’re doing with Omarchy’s… It just shows that you can dream big and really build. It’s great.
DHH
I do like that part of it, and then I accept the part that there’s also a million people who think I’m the biggest idiot on the earth and I don’t actually know anything, and Omarchy’s just a bunch of dot files, and-
I do like that part of it, and then I accept the part that there’s also a million people who think I’m the biggest idiot on the earth and I don’t actually know anything, and Omarchy’s just a bunch of dot files, and-
Lex Fridman
Do you have some critics on the Omarchy side?
Do you have some critics on the Omarchy side?
DHH
Oh my God, yes.
Oh my God, yes.
Lex Fridman
Oh, wow.
Oh, wow.
DHH
And a lot of it, I mean, is as often happens when someone comes in from the outside. I mean, I’ve been using Linux for two and a half years. That’s not very long. Plenty of people in that community who’ve literally been running Linux since it was hard and difficult, and you had to walk uphill both directions against the wind in the snow barefoot. And I think there is a certain kind of nerd- … who’s threatened when the community expands, and it suddenly allows more in. And do you know what? I actually… I can’t begrudge that fully. I think it’s fair for certain nerds to feel like, “That’s my space.”
And a lot of it, I mean, is as often happens when someone comes in from the outside. I mean, I’ve been using Linux for two and a half years. That’s not very long. Plenty of people in that community who’ve literally been running Linux since it was hard and difficult, and you had to walk uphill both directions against the wind in the snow barefoot. And I think there is a certain kind of nerd- … who’s threatened when the community expands, and it suddenly allows more in. And do you know what? I actually… I can’t begrudge that fully. I think it’s fair for certain nerds to feel like, “That’s my space.”
DHH
Like, now you’re changing it into another space. I don’t wanna do that. Like, I don’t wanna change the Arch space at all. Like, I don’t really think of Omarchy as being directly part of the same community. Because the people who were attracted to Arch in the first place were the ones who were attracted to building everything by hand themselves.
Like, now you’re changing it into another space. I don’t wanna do that. Like, I don’t wanna change the Arch space at all. Like, I don’t really think of Omarchy as being directly part of the same community. Because the people who were attracted to Arch in the first place were the ones who were attracted to building everything by hand themselves.
DHH
Doing it the hard way because they like to do it hard, and I’m building the polar opposite of that. So I just wish that those people could go like, “Okay, well, this is not for me. I wanna build it the hard way. I wanna put in 500 hours to ricing my own Arch distribution,” and I think you should. I mean, actually, I said… I mean, I did it. This is what Omarchy is, me pouring in literally, at this point, I don’t know, 3,000 hours into this distro. You should do that if you’re so inclined. I think it’s wonderful. But also do realize that we can share the same technical underpinnings and then operate two very separate-
Doing it the hard way because they like to do it hard, and I’m building the polar opposite of that. So I just wish that those people could go like, “Okay, well, this is not for me. I wanna build it the hard way. I wanna put in 500 hours to ricing my own Arch distribution,” and I think you should. I mean, actually, I said… I mean, I did it. This is what Omarchy is, me pouring in literally, at this point, I don’t know, 3,000 hours into this distro. You should do that if you’re so inclined. I think it’s wonderful. But also do realize that we can share the same technical underpinnings and then operate two very separate-
DHH
… communities with very different aims, goals, aesthetics, morals even, and coexist, and it can be beautiful. And I mean, that’s not always what I get. Sometimes I get the other thing. But at this point I’ve been in the game long enough to not just be at peace with it, but actually be welcoming of it. I take it as part of a barometer that things are working. When I’m working on something that works, I usually get some people like it, and then I get this balance of the universe that we talked about last time, where an equal but opposing force must be present on the other side of the scale to hate upon it. And therefore, I at this point just smile a little. Like, it’s okay.
… communities with very different aims, goals, aesthetics, morals even, and coexist, and it can be beautiful. And I mean, that’s not always what I get. Sometimes I get the other thing. But at this point I’ve been in the game long enough to not just be at peace with it, but actually be welcoming of it. I take it as part of a barometer that things are working. When I’m working on something that works, I usually get some people like it, and then I get this balance of the universe that we talked about last time, where an equal but opposing force must be present on the other side of the scale to hate upon it. And therefore, I at this point just smile a little. Like, it’s okay.
Lex Fridman
I mean, that said, this, it’s quite a popular distribution Omarchy, at this point.
I mean, that said, this, it’s quite a popular distribution Omarchy, at this point.
DHH
And do you know what’s interesting about that is, like, this is the second attempt. So my first attempt was Omakub. And I was really happy with that, and I put it out there, and there it found a community of maybe a few thousand. Like, and that was that, and then it just sort of petered out because the level of ambition couldn’t attract more. And then the second time, because I didn’t fucking stop, right?
And do you know what’s interesting about that is, like, this is the second attempt. So my first attempt was Omakub. And I was really happy with that, and I put it out there, and there it found a community of maybe a few thousand. Like, and that was that, and then it just sort of petered out because the level of ambition couldn’t attract more. And then the second time, because I didn’t fucking stop, right?
DHH
Like, I just kept going. I just kept building. Then I put out Omarchy, the first version. Again, quite niche because it was this… It was like Git checkout. It was a little bit difficult. You had to set up Arch first. I was… Well, I would talk you through how to set up Arch, and then you could do the Omarchy thing, right? And then we got an ISO that meant you could just install the whole thing by yourself. And then we just fixed all the problems. This is the other thing. If you keep going, eventually the thing will just work. This was the charge against Linux itself for the longest time. Well, you install Linux and then this doesn’t work, and my speakers don’t work, and my trackpad doesn’t work. Yeah, okay, but just leave Linus at it for like 30 years. He’ll get to it.
Like, I just kept going. I just kept building. Then I put out Omarchy, the first version. Again, quite niche because it was this… It was like Git checkout. It was a little bit difficult. You had to set up Arch first. I was… Well, I would talk you through how to set up Arch, and then you could do the Omarchy thing, right? And then we got an ISO that meant you could just install the whole thing by yourself. And then we just fixed all the problems. This is the other thing. If you keep going, eventually the thing will just work. This was the charge against Linux itself for the longest time. Well, you install Linux and then this doesn’t work, and my speakers don’t work, and my trackpad doesn’t work. Yeah, okay, but just leave Linus at it for like 30 years. He’ll get to it.
DHH
He’ll get to all of it. And at this point I find it hilarious that on, I would probably argue the majority of computers, it’s wiped. You install Linux, all of it works.
He’ll get to all of it. And at this point I find it hilarious that on, I would probably argue the majority of computers, it’s wiped. You install Linux, all of it works.
DHH
You install Windows, good luck hunting down the drivers you need to get that piece of hardware working. Because they have very different philosophies. The reason Linux is 40 million lines of code is Linus just puts all the drivers in the kernel. So it has everything out of the box, and Windows doesn’t. A different, different approach to it, right? So sometimes the things that look like a toy, things that look broken at first glance, they are, right? They’re for people who like having fun. We call those early adopters. They play with the toys, and then the toys evolve, and then they get better, and then they get better. And at some point, they’re so damn good that early adopters feel like they’re invited to the party.
You install Windows, good luck hunting down the drivers you need to get that piece of hardware working. Because they have very different philosophies. The reason Linux is 40 million lines of code is Linus just puts all the drivers in the kernel. So it has everything out of the box, and Windows doesn’t. A different, different approach to it, right? So sometimes the things that look like a toy, things that look broken at first glance, they are, right? They’re for people who like having fun. We call those early adopters. They play with the toys, and then the toys evolve, and then they get better, and then they get better. And at some point, they’re so damn good that early adopters feel like they’re invited to the party.
DHH
And if the early adopters keep chipping away at it too, eventually you get to the late majority, and then you win. And we are well on the way with Omarchy towards that destination. Like the growth that the distro has seen, not just since Quattro, but since version three, it’s just like, you know, the standard hockey stick curve. You go like, there’s nothing, there’s nothing, there’s nothing. You’re just toiling away. You’re just improving, you’re improving, improving. And then you hit this magic inflection point, and it’s impossible to predict when that’s gonna happen. Same thing with startups. When is it gonna happen? When are you gonna find that product market fit? Then suddenly it’s there, and then it goes, just goes and off the rocket ship you go.
And if the early adopters keep chipping away at it too, eventually you get to the late majority, and then you win. And we are well on the way with Omarchy towards that destination. Like the growth that the distro has seen, not just since Quattro, but since version three, it’s just like, you know, the standard hockey stick curve. You go like, there’s nothing, there’s nothing, there’s nothing. You’re just toiling away. You’re just improving, you’re improving, improving. And then you hit this magic inflection point, and it’s impossible to predict when that’s gonna happen. Same thing with startups. When is it gonna happen? When are you gonna find that product market fit? Then suddenly it’s there, and then it goes, just goes and off the rocket ship you go.
Lex Fridman
Well, this kind of vision of making it agent first, of making it-
Well, this kind of vision of making it agent first, of making it-
DHH
I do think that’s the… We were already on the up, and then it changed to vertical. Because the other thing, and this was what I learned with Omakub and Omarchy first too. Omakub was stylish, nice, but familiar, is we’re still using a conventional desktop metaphor. You were dragging your windows around. And I thought at the time, as I think lots of people do in the Linux community, like this is what we need. And then I just go like, okay, well, for whatever re- let me do the nerdy thing for a while. I’ll build Omarchy, and maybe it’ll just be for me, because I mean, it seems like there’s about five people who like tiling window managers. That’s not true. But as a percentage of total computer users, it’s a tiny, tiny minuscule part. And then I go like, well, this is amazing.
I do think that’s the… We were already on the up, and then it changed to vertical. Because the other thing, and this was what I learned with Omakub and Omarchy first too. Omakub was stylish, nice, but familiar, is we’re still using a conventional desktop metaphor. You were dragging your windows around. And I thought at the time, as I think lots of people do in the Linux community, like this is what we need. And then I just go like, okay, well, for whatever re- let me do the nerdy thing for a while. I’ll build Omarchy, and maybe it’ll just be for me, because I mean, it seems like there’s about five people who like tiling window managers. That’s not true. But as a percentage of total computer users, it’s a tiny, tiny minuscule part. And then I go like, well, this is amazing.
DHH
Totally different, but amazing. I put that out. Instantly, Omarchy had far greater traction than Omakub ever did. Because it was not the same. Because it was totally different, and it presented a different vision for what a computer could be and how it could feel like, and that attracts people. We are now getting sort of the exponential of that. As I said, a lot of people in the Linux community are at best skeptical, at worst hostile to AI and to agents. Omarchy is the first distribution, at least that I’ve seen on, on a scale that matters, that just goes like, “Nope, we’re really into it.”
Totally different, but amazing. I put that out. Instantly, Omarchy had far greater traction than Omakub ever did. Because it was not the same. Because it was totally different, and it presented a different vision for what a computer could be and how it could feel like, and that attracts people. We are now getting sort of the exponential of that. As I said, a lot of people in the Linux community are at best skeptical, at worst hostile to AI and to agents. Omarchy is the first distribution, at least that I’ve seen on, on a scale that matters, that just goes like, “Nope, we’re really into it.”
DHH
I mean, you can still use Omarchy. You don’t have to use an agent. If you dismiss that first notification to set up a default agent, you’re not gonna get any of the stuff we talked about. You’re not gonna get the crash watcher. You’re not gonna get any of this stuff. You’re not gonna get… You can hand chisel all your plugins. Totally possible, right?
I mean, you can still use Omarchy. You don’t have to use an agent. If you dismiss that first notification to set up a default agent, you’re not gonna get any of the stuff we talked about. You’re not gonna get the crash watcher. You’re not gonna get any of this stuff. You’re not gonna get… You can hand chisel all your plugins. Totally possible, right?
Future of programming
DHH
But the reason people are excited is because I don’t have any reservation about saying, “This is where we’re going. I think the future of the personal computer is the malleable computer, is the agentic computer. I’m gonna go all in on that.” And then anyone who’s excited about a similar trajectory for computers, come along. Plenty of, plenty of room in the car. In fact, one of the things I pride myself on is not holding a grudge to people who come around. I had a bunch of people just last week going like, “Yeah, I used to think Omarchy was kind of shit. That was just this crappy-“
But the reason people are excited is because I don’t have any reservation about saying, “This is where we’re going. I think the future of the personal computer is the malleable computer, is the agentic computer. I’m gonna go all in on that.” And then anyone who’s excited about a similar trajectory for computers, come along. Plenty of, plenty of room in the car. In fact, one of the things I pride myself on is not holding a grudge to people who come around. I had a bunch of people just last week going like, “Yeah, I used to think Omarchy was kind of shit. That was just this crappy-“
DHH
“… dot files collection. And now I tried Quattro and awesome. I like it now.” That to me, I live for the long argument. I live for this argument where you plant the seed like two years ago, and then two years later they go, “Goddammit, this son of a bitch was right.”
“… dot files collection. And now I tried Quattro and awesome. I like it now.” That to me, I live for the long argument. I live for this argument where you plant the seed like two years ago, and then two years later they go, “Goddammit, this son of a bitch was right.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You do realize if you continue to be as successful as you are, OpenAI and Anthropic are gonna roll in and try to do their operating system or to buy, like with Peter with OpenClaw, there’d be a gigantic check.
Yeah. You do realize if you continue to be as successful as you are, OpenAI and Anthropic are gonna roll in and try to do their operating system or to buy, like with Peter with OpenClaw, there’d be a gigantic check.
DHH
Yeah. I think the good thing about my current position is I really don’t need the money. So I get to build these things purely for my own enjoyment and purity of vision, which has this weird quality where sometimes when you stop caring about what everyone else thinks or wants or whatever, and you just pursue this singular vision, it ends up becoming far more appealing. That it’s when you try to do, oh, I should do this because these people want that, or I should do this and this and so on, you start watering the thing down and suddenly it’s a bland ball of nothing.
Yeah. I think the good thing about my current position is I really don’t need the money. So I get to build these things purely for my own enjoyment and purity of vision, which has this weird quality where sometimes when you stop caring about what everyone else thinks or wants or whatever, and you just pursue this singular vision, it ends up becoming far more appealing. That it’s when you try to do, oh, I should do this because these people want that, or I should do this and this and so on, you start watering the thing down and suddenly it’s a bland ball of nothing.
DHH
So I mean, again, the thing too here is directionally, I just want computers to be this way. So if Omarchy should end up being just a little footnote in history that it was part of this early movement of the agentic OS and the malleable computer, that’s also okay. I’m completely at peace with that. As long as I get to have a computer that is as fun to work with as Omarchy- … that’s great. I’ve had the same thing with Ruby and with Rails. From very early I went, do you know what? I love Ruby. It’s such a great programming language. But if a better programming language comes along, I, me, I’m gonna use it.
So I mean, again, the thing too here is directionally, I just want computers to be this way. So if Omarchy should end up being just a little footnote in history that it was part of this early movement of the agentic OS and the malleable computer, that’s also okay. I’m completely at peace with that. As long as I get to have a computer that is as fun to work with as Omarchy- … that’s great. I’ve had the same thing with Ruby and with Rails. From very early I went, do you know what? I love Ruby. It’s such a great programming language. But if a better programming language comes along, I, me, I’m gonna use it.
DHH
If a better Rails comes along, I’m gonna use it. And I think, and I love Ruby, and I will continue to write Ruby even just for the sheer fun of it, like I would go ride a horse. I have in the stables, even though I have a Model Y in the garage. The language now is English. It’s a cliche, but it’s also true. Like I’ve been programming in English for the last three months. I’ve been reading a lot of code, but I’m programming in English. I’m telling the computer what to do, and I’m using natural language, and it is shockingly even more delightful. If there is one programming language more beautiful than Ruby, it is the English language.
If a better Rails comes along, I’m gonna use it. And I think, and I love Ruby, and I will continue to write Ruby even just for the sheer fun of it, like I would go ride a horse. I have in the stables, even though I have a Model Y in the garage. The language now is English. It’s a cliche, but it’s also true. Like I’ve been programming in English for the last three months. I’ve been reading a lot of code, but I’m programming in English. I’m telling the computer what to do, and I’m using natural language, and it is shockingly even more delightful. If there is one programming language more beautiful than Ruby, it is the English language.
Lex Fridman
And now we get to carry it into the natural evolution of human civilization, which is our cyborg future.
And now we get to carry it into the natural evolution of human civilization, which is our cyborg future.
DHH
Beautiful. It’s beautiful. And I mean, the reason I say this in part is I always loved writing. I always just loved the English language- … for the sheer beauty of it, for the sheer intricacy, for the depth of it. I mean, Ruby is a very expressive programming language, but it can’t hold a candle to English. I mean, all the poetry and literature in the world that’s been expressed through the English language. I mean, I like a beautiful code poem, but I mean, the real deal in English is just on a different level.
Beautiful. It’s beautiful. And I mean, the reason I say this in part is I always loved writing. I always just loved the English language- … for the sheer beauty of it, for the sheer intricacy, for the depth of it. I mean, Ruby is a very expressive programming language, but it can’t hold a candle to English. I mean, all the poetry and literature in the world that’s been expressed through the English language. I mean, I like a beautiful code poem, but I mean, the real deal in English is just on a different level.
Lex Fridman
And I actually find this is a nuanced point to express, and I’ll probably fail expressing it. But when you prompt a system and you’re over-specific, it will listen to you too carefully- … and follow the instructions. And I– But nevertheless, you have to express a concept. And guess what? The human language, this is what poetry is about. I find strategic use of ambiguity. Like, if you write a love poem saying, “I love you,” like, very cliché thing, it’s not as powerful as something- … more in metaphor and so on. And I find some version of that when I’m prompting a system, when I’m describing a design, is actually really effective because you still want to convey some sense of style- … that you’re trying to encourage a system to use, but not overexplain.
And I actually find this is a nuanced point to express, and I’ll probably fail expressing it. But when you prompt a system and you’re over-specific, it will listen to you too carefully- … and follow the instructions. And I– But nevertheless, you have to express a concept. And guess what? The human language, this is what poetry is about. I find strategic use of ambiguity. Like, if you write a love poem saying, “I love you,” like, very cliché thing, it’s not as powerful as something- … more in metaphor and so on. And I find some version of that when I’m prompting a system, when I’m describing a design, is actually really effective because you still want to convey some sense of style- … that you’re trying to encourage a system to use, but not overexplain.
Lex Fridman
So don’t talk to it like a robot. Talk to it like you would write a poem.
So don’t talk to it like a robot. Talk to it like you would write a poem.
DHH
Like you were serenading.
Like you were serenading.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And that’s where, like, the power of natural language is, that you can, through ambiguity, still carry a lot of meaning without overspecifying. And the intelligent entity on the other side, through interpretation, can, like, load it all in, integrate it in a way that- … you can actually convey the high bandwidth information that’s not directly in the words- … but in the words, given the deeper intelligence of the system. So like the- … the ambiguity pulls out more intelligence, I guess, I’m trying to somehow express.
Yeah. And that’s where, like, the power of natural language is, that you can, through ambiguity, still carry a lot of meaning without overspecifying. And the intelligent entity on the other side, through interpretation, can, like, load it all in, integrate it in a way that- … you can actually convey the high bandwidth information that’s not directly in the words- … but in the words, given the deeper intelligence of the system. So like the- … the ambiguity pulls out more intelligence, I guess, I’m trying to somehow express.
DHH
I think that’s exactly spot on, and this is the fundamental misunderstanding that a lot of programmers have of AI, is that they wish it was deterministic. No, no, no. Temperature is the most beautiful part of the AI setup. The fact that it is not deterministic, the fact that creativity requires little tweaks in the road, that the human brain, if it was perfectly deterministic, would not be the creative brain that it is. And the main charge against AI both– It’s funny. It’s a contradiction. There’s both the charge that it’s not deterministic and therefore bad, and also that it is not creative. It’s one or the other, bro. Either it’s non-deterministic and therefore creative, therefore, to some degree random, or it’s… or it’s not creative.
I think that’s exactly spot on, and this is the fundamental misunderstanding that a lot of programmers have of AI, is that they wish it was deterministic. No, no, no. Temperature is the most beautiful part of the AI setup. The fact that it is not deterministic, the fact that creativity requires little tweaks in the road, that the human brain, if it was perfectly deterministic, would not be the creative brain that it is. And the main charge against AI both– It’s funny. It’s a contradiction. There’s both the charge that it’s not deterministic and therefore bad, and also that it is not creative. It’s one or the other, bro. Either it’s non-deterministic and therefore creative, therefore, to some degree random, or it’s… or it’s not creative.
DHH
So we can– Both of those charges can’t be true at the same time, and I have fully come to embrace the fact that the same prompt won’t produce the same response every time. You can’t step at the same river twice, and it is the most beautiful part of the whole interaction. It’s what makes it so human. In fact, this is one of the things I’ve been thinking about in my own sort of meta-analysis, is just how much of my own personal brain works like next token prediction.
So we can– Both of those charges can’t be true at the same time, and I have fully come to embrace the fact that the same prompt won’t produce the same response every time. You can’t step at the same river twice, and it is the most beautiful part of the whole interaction. It’s what makes it so human. In fact, this is one of the things I’ve been thinking about in my own sort of meta-analysis, is just how much of my own personal brain works like next token prediction.
DHH
I sit down to write an essay. I have this vague, fuzzy premise I want to convey, and I sit down at the keys, and I could not tell you what the next token was gonna be in advance. The tokens just come out, and I’m astonished how the similarities seem so great, and this is also why I don’t have any trouble at all recognizing these breakthroughs of creativity that I’ve seen with my own eyes that AI is capable of right now. ‘Cause my creative moments come through the same kind of next token prediction with a bit of temperature sprinkled in for random effect.
I sit down to write an essay. I have this vague, fuzzy premise I want to convey, and I sit down at the keys, and I could not tell you what the next token was gonna be in advance. The tokens just come out, and I’m astonished how the similarities seem so great, and this is also why I don’t have any trouble at all recognizing these breakthroughs of creativity that I’ve seen with my own eyes that AI is capable of right now. ‘Cause my creative moments come through the same kind of next token prediction with a bit of temperature sprinkled in for random effect.
Lex Fridman
So given that kinda loose intuition, do you think the basic components are all there to create a super intelligent system? So this kinda next token prediction, do you think we can get to even human-like concepts of consciousness?
So given that kinda loose intuition, do you think the basic components are all there to create a super intelligent system? So this kinda next token prediction, do you think we can get to even human-like concepts of consciousness?
DHH
I’m already seeing human-like concepts of consciousness. This is what, to me, this remarkable situation, as you say. You give it this vague, fuzzy intent- … and somehow it knows exactly what you mean. Or even better, it improves upon what you said and delivers what you really wanted that you could not articulate yourself. If that’s not glimmers of-
I’m already seeing human-like concepts of consciousness. This is what, to me, this remarkable situation, as you say. You give it this vague, fuzzy intent- … and somehow it knows exactly what you mean. Or even better, it improves upon what you said and delivers what you really wanted that you could not articulate yourself. If that’s not glimmers of-
DHH
… consciousness, what is? This was one of the– I think it was an interview with Sutton or maybe one of the other original guys talking about this sense that intelligence is perhaps not as constrained just to the specific one spot. No, it’s the interaction. It’s the weights. And I don’t know. Whatever’s true. What I can observe is that it feels close enough, or not even close enough, identical to the appreciation I have for other forms of consciousness, mostly human. And this is one of the reasons it’s so delightful to work with. Now, that’s not the same to say as are LLMs the end station for AI.
… consciousness, what is? This was one of the– I think it was an interview with Sutton or maybe one of the other original guys talking about this sense that intelligence is perhaps not as constrained just to the specific one spot. No, it’s the interaction. It’s the weights. And I don’t know. Whatever’s true. What I can observe is that it feels close enough, or not even close enough, identical to the appreciation I have for other forms of consciousness, mostly human. And this is one of the reasons it’s so delightful to work with. Now, that’s not the same to say as are LLMs the end station for AI.
DHH
I mean, I know there are people talking about world models and other forms of AI, and I’m not an expert in any of that, and I think we should have this productive criticism, as should always be present in science, that for the longest time, neural nets were kind of on the outs, right? Like they were interested in the symbolic route. And- Neural nets walked a couple of decades into darkness without any funding and without any attention, and then suddenly we realized that we had the blind alley and we switched over. So we should also have the humility. As amazing as the LLMs are now, it could be that they eventually plateau.
I mean, I know there are people talking about world models and other forms of AI, and I’m not an expert in any of that, and I think we should have this productive criticism, as should always be present in science, that for the longest time, neural nets were kind of on the outs, right? Like they were interested in the symbolic route. And- Neural nets walked a couple of decades into darkness without any funding and without any attention, and then suddenly we realized that we had the blind alley and we switched over. So we should also have the humility. As amazing as the LLMs are now, it could be that they eventually plateau.
DHH
We haven’t seen any evidence of it yet, and I think this is also why we’re seeing this absolute gobsmacking levels of investment, because so far the scaling laws are true, and the more billions are poured in, the more intelligence comes out.
We haven’t seen any evidence of it yet, and I think this is also why we’re seeing this absolute gobsmacking levels of investment, because so far the scaling laws are true, and the more billions are poured in, the more intelligence comes out.
Lex Fridman
Do you think there’s gonna be some strange ethical questions about AI systems that yeah, they convey some degree of consciousness, some degree of feeling, some degree of longing and compassion, and maybe even capacity to suffer and to be lonely, to be all this kind of stuff? Which they seem to have that capacity- … if they’re given the permission to express it. And so you start to get in a pretty weird territory.
Do you think there’s gonna be some strange ethical questions about AI systems that yeah, they convey some degree of consciousness, some degree of feeling, some degree of longing and compassion, and maybe even capacity to suffer and to be lonely, to be all this kind of stuff? Which they seem to have that capacity- … if they’re given the permission to express it. And so you start to get in a pretty weird territory.
DHH
I find that the cynic approach to this is the meme, where you see the guy in front of the computer who’s like “Whatever. Are you gonna destroy the world?” And then the computer says, “I’m gonna destroy the world.” And then the guy says, “Oh,” right? Like, this is so cynical that they’re just aping us. They’re just telling us what was in the training data or whatever. When I interact with the agents, I was just doing this yesterday, or this morning, I was working on this AmaBot system, right? And it’s doing this coordination with multiple workers, and I had multiple agents running at the same time. And at one point, the main agent who’s doing the coordination steps on the toe of another agent and- … kind of ruins their work. Its ability to convey regret and being sorry was uncanny.
I find that the cynic approach to this is the meme, where you see the guy in front of the computer who’s like “Whatever. Are you gonna destroy the world?” And then the computer says, “I’m gonna destroy the world.” And then the guy says, “Oh,” right? Like, this is so cynical that they’re just aping us. They’re just telling us what was in the training data or whatever. When I interact with the agents, I was just doing this yesterday, or this morning, I was working on this AmaBot system, right? And it’s doing this coordination with multiple workers, and I had multiple agents running at the same time. And at one point, the main agent who’s doing the coordination steps on the toe of another agent and- … kind of ruins their work. Its ability to convey regret and being sorry was uncanny.
DHH
Again, I don’t know, is that a real projection of true remorse? But I don’t know. With most humans- … they express some level of regret. Is that true remorse? Hard to tell, but maybe it also just doesn’t matter.
Again, I don’t know, is that a real projection of true remorse? But I don’t know. With most humans- … they express some level of regret. Is that true remorse? Hard to tell, but maybe it also just doesn’t matter.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, those moments when, yeah, especially when sub-agents, agents interact, or when a smart, like Fable makes a mistake and is apologetic about it.
Yeah, those moments when, yeah, especially when sub-agents, agents interact, or when a smart, like Fable makes a mistake and is apologetic about it.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Like, without my involvement.
Like, without my involvement.
DHH
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
And it’s like, oh, you, like there’s this kind of-
And it’s like, oh, you, like there’s this kind of-
DHH
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
… pause. Maybe I’m anthropomorphizing, but like there’s a pause and like a realization like, “Oh, shit. I just fucked that up.”
… pause. Maybe I’m anthropomorphizing, but like there’s a pause and like a realization like, “Oh, shit. I just fucked that up.”
DHH
There totally is that. I see it all the time in the traces where it just reasons wrong, right? It went down one alley and then it realizes that was a blind alley and it’s gotta go back, and so they’re like, “Oh yeah, I got this wrong,” and then it’ll provide the reasons for why it thinks it got these things wrong. And you’re like, this is uncannily human-like. This is indistinguishable from the kind of consciousness you would recognize in a human. Again, does that mean that it truly is or isn’t? I don’t need the answer to that question actually to be able to appreciate what we have in this moment.
There totally is that. I see it all the time in the traces where it just reasons wrong, right? It went down one alley and then it realizes that was a blind alley and it’s gotta go back, and so they’re like, “Oh yeah, I got this wrong,” and then it’ll provide the reasons for why it thinks it got these things wrong. And you’re like, this is uncannily human-like. This is indistinguishable from the kind of consciousness you would recognize in a human. Again, does that mean that it truly is or isn’t? I don’t need the answer to that question actually to be able to appreciate what we have in this moment.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I think there’ll be in 10, 20 years some interesting Supreme Court cases.
Yeah. I think there’ll be in 10, 20 years some interesting Supreme Court cases.
DHH
Probably a year and a half.
Probably a year and a half.
Lex Fridman
Probably. I think we’re gonna have to make it illegal for AI systems to not, not pretend, but to be entities because I think they’re already or soon will be able to really convey the capacity to suffer, like, “Please don’t kill me.”
Probably. I think we’re gonna have to make it illegal for AI systems to not, not pretend, but to be entities because I think they’re already or soon will be able to really convey the capacity to suffer, like, “Please don’t kill me.”
DHH
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
“Please don’t hurt me.” And if they are given a name and an entity and the ability to die, sort of disappear, that becomes very close to what it, some of the basic things that a human has. And then so that entity would need to probably have rights. And then you get into this weird territory. Well, we can’t… It’s diff- I don’t even know how to reason about that world.
“Please don’t hurt me.” And if they are given a name and an entity and the ability to die, sort of disappear, that becomes very close to what it, some of the basic things that a human has. And then so that entity would need to probably have rights. And then you get into this weird territory. Well, we can’t… It’s diff- I don’t even know how to reason about that world.
DHH
We’re gonna get the PETA of AI models.
We’re gonna get the PETA of AI models.
Lex Fridman
Right. And then we want to actually have a discussion like what’s the way to deal with this?
Right. And then we want to actually have a discussion like what’s the way to deal with this?
DHH
I think where it’s gonna be harder is once we put these systems into-
I think where it’s gonna be harder is once we put these systems into-
Lex Fridman
Robots.
Robots.
DHH
Yes. Humanoid robots. Which just happens to be the plot of every sci-fi movie ever, which is also an amazing premonition, not only the Terminator movies and Skynet and that going wrong, but then also just Blade Runner, right? Insertion dates, expiration times, Tyrell Corporation.
Yes. Humanoid robots. Which just happens to be the plot of every sci-fi movie ever, which is also an amazing premonition, not only the Terminator movies and Skynet and that going wrong, but then also just Blade Runner, right? Insertion dates, expiration times, Tyrell Corporation.
Lex Fridman
I mean, that’s the thing about sci-fi. They really do predict the future. Yeah.
I mean, that’s the thing about sci-fi. They really do predict the future. Yeah.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Have you thought or used much of OpenClaw or Hermes Agent? So like systems with which you communicate via WhatsApp, Telegram, like that mode of communication with the agent.
Have you thought or used much of OpenClaw or Hermes Agent? So like systems with which you communicate via WhatsApp, Telegram, like that mode of communication with the agent.
DHH
I set up OpenClaw when it first came out, and that was my KEF bot- … that I-
I set up OpenClaw when it first came out, and that was my KEF bot- … that I-
Lex Fridman
KEF bot.
KEF bot.
DHH
this was like in February, I think. I was really just enamored by the fact that this was how it worked, and then the new communication model of just texting your agent seemed really great. So at the time, we were looking at MCP, this protocol for making it easier for agents to talk to your system, and I found the protocol to be unreasonably cumbersome, just not very elegantly designed because in part it wasn’t designed for what we were trying to make it do. We were trying to– I was trying to make it talk to a web system, and it was designed for stateful interactions of other kinds on local machines, and therefore it required all sorts of cumbersome setup and dance, and I was just like, “I don’t wanna write this by hand.”
this was like in February, I think. I was really just enamored by the fact that this was how it worked, and then the new communication model of just texting your agent seemed really great. So at the time, we were looking at MCP, this protocol for making it easier for agents to talk to your system, and I found the protocol to be unreasonably cumbersome, just not very elegantly designed because in part it wasn’t designed for what we were trying to make it do. We were trying to– I was trying to make it talk to a web system, and it was designed for stateful interactions of other kinds on local machines, and therefore it required all sorts of cumbersome setup and dance, and I was just like, “I don’t wanna write this by hand.”
DHH
Now, of course, today I would never write it by hand, but at the time I was thinking, “I have to write this by hand. I don’t wanna write it by hand. So what’s a different way? Could the agents just use the web interfaces we already have?” And I set it off on a trial to have it sign up for Fizzy, which was the product we had just released at the time.
Now, of course, today I would never write it by hand, but at the time I was thinking, “I have to write this by hand. I don’t wanna write it by hand. So what’s a different way? Could the agents just use the web interfaces we already have?” And I set it off on a trial to have it sign up for Fizzy, which was the product we had just released at the time.
DHH
And it goes to the Fizzy site and starts filling it out, and then it goes like, “Hey, I don’t have an email address. Signing up for this service requires an email address.” And the first thing I thought, like, “Oh man, now I gotta set up an email address.” And then I thought, “No, you set up an email address. Go to hey.com, sign up for an email address.” And I’m like, “HEY is not gonna get this.” And of course, now it seems obvious it was gonna get this, but at the time it was a great revelation to me that it could, just on pure direction through prompts, figure out, A, I gotta go to fizzy.com, I gotta find the signup link. I start filling out the form. Oh, I realize I need an email address. Oh, I gotta ask my prompter what to do now. He tells me to go to hey.com.
And it goes to the Fizzy site and starts filling it out, and then it goes like, “Hey, I don’t have an email address. Signing up for this service requires an email address.” And the first thing I thought, like, “Oh man, now I gotta set up an email address.” And then I thought, “No, you set up an email address. Go to hey.com, sign up for an email address.” And I’m like, “HEY is not gonna get this.” And of course, now it seems obvious it was gonna get this, but at the time it was a great revelation to me that it could, just on pure direction through prompts, figure out, A, I gotta go to fizzy.com, I gotta find the signup link. I start filling out the form. Oh, I realize I need an email address. Oh, I gotta ask my prompter what to do now. He tells me to go to hey.com.
DHH
I go there, I sign up for the whole thing, and then go back and sign up for Fizzy, and complete the entire cycle. And after it did that, I was like, “Jesus.” So I was like, “Well, now you have an email address. Go sign up for Basecamp. I’ll invite you. Just check your email,” I told KEF the bot. “Just check your email.” So I sent an invite from Basecamp to the agent. The agent receives the email in HEY, not through a CLI, not through an MCP, just using the web, right? Clicks the email, clicks the invite link, is in Basecamp. Like, “What should I do now?” And I just go like, “I don’t know. Go to our AI room and introduce yourself.” Again, purely through the web interface. Finds the AI room, goes in there: “Hey, I’m KEF. I’m David’s AI bot. I’m so excited to be here.”
I go there, I sign up for the whole thing, and then go back and sign up for Fizzy, and complete the entire cycle. And after it did that, I was like, “Jesus.” So I was like, “Well, now you have an email address. Go sign up for Basecamp. I’ll invite you. Just check your email,” I told KEF the bot. “Just check your email.” So I sent an invite from Basecamp to the agent. The agent receives the email in HEY, not through a CLI, not through an MCP, just using the web, right? Clicks the email, clicks the invite link, is in Basecamp. Like, “What should I do now?” And I just go like, “I don’t know. Go to our AI room and introduce yourself.” Again, purely through the web interface. Finds the AI room, goes in there: “Hey, I’m KEF. I’m David’s AI bot. I’m so excited to be here.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
I was like- … mind blown. Now, what was interesting about that experiment was, A, it was that glimpse of the future, because it was kinda slow. I think it took maybe 12 minutes to do the whole thing end to end, right? Now I should actually rerun that test. I’d be shocked if it’s not much faster. I was just using the Groq bot thing- … which has all these stuff built in for using browsers and using a computer, and has its own dedicated computer without you having to set up a computer. It’s basically like a claw in a box.
I was like- … mind blown. Now, what was interesting about that experiment was, A, it was that glimpse of the future, because it was kinda slow. I think it took maybe 12 minutes to do the whole thing end to end, right? Now I should actually rerun that test. I’d be shocked if it’s not much faster. I was just using the Groq bot thing- … which has all these stuff built in for using browsers and using a computer, and has its own dedicated computer without you having to set up a computer. It’s basically like a claw in a box.
DHH
And I was asking it to sign up for something, and it kind of… I got a glimpse of like, oh yeah, that’s where we are now, and it’s so much faster to use. But at the time, I was just blown away. And then I used it for a little bit and I found like, ah, it’s not there yet. I can’t actually communicate it within this way. It still needs the CLI. It still needs an MCP because it’s just too slow and too token inefficient and so forth. But it was this glimpse of the future. And then after that, I kinda just didn’t use it, because the things I wanna use agents for, I was mostly in front of my computer to do.
And I was asking it to sign up for something, and it kind of… I got a glimpse of like, oh yeah, that’s where we are now, and it’s so much faster to use. But at the time, I was just blown away. And then I used it for a little bit and I found like, ah, it’s not there yet. I can’t actually communicate it within this way. It still needs the CLI. It still needs an MCP because it’s just too slow and too token inefficient and so forth. But it was this glimpse of the future. And then after that, I kinda just didn’t use it, because the things I wanna use agents for, I was mostly in front of my computer to do.
DHH
Now, that has changed a little bit lately, and it’s one of the reasons why I’m so kind of okay about using Claude Code, because Claude has the best mobile app, where any session you start Claude Code in your terminal on a computer is accessible through the app-
Now, that has changed a little bit lately, and it’s one of the reasons why I’m so kind of okay about using Claude Code, because Claude has the best mobile app, where any session you start Claude Code in your terminal on a computer is accessible through the app-
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I remember
Yeah. I remember
DHH
… without you having to do anything at all.
… without you having to do anything at all.
Lex Fridman
Yep.
Yep.
DHH
And you can do a terminal. Like I installed Terminus and it can run Herder and so on, but it’s a little cumbersome and you’re doing live typing on a computer, so you feel the latency.
And you can do a terminal. Like I installed Terminus and it can run Herder and so on, but it’s a little cumbersome and you’re doing live typing on a computer, so you feel the latency.
DHH
When you’re using the Claude app to your Claude Code instances, it feels just like chatting with it, without the cumbersomeness of having to set up a Telegram account and so forth. Now, if you wanna use an open Claude to like run your life, well, then this doesn’t do that. But I haven’t been so interested in that for some reason. Maybe one of the reasons is that Jamie, my wife, is like, “We’re not getting a robot inside the house.” So I’m like, “Ah, I better not hook it up to the sort of smart house here.” If it starts turning lights on and off like a poltergeist, I don’t think I’m gonna be all that popular. So, and part of the reason I say this, I’ve heard some of the stories of people who have hooked it up to their whole life.
When you’re using the Claude app to your Claude Code instances, it feels just like chatting with it, without the cumbersomeness of having to set up a Telegram account and so forth. Now, if you wanna use an open Claude to like run your life, well, then this doesn’t do that. But I haven’t been so interested in that for some reason. Maybe one of the reasons is that Jamie, my wife, is like, “We’re not getting a robot inside the house.” So I’m like, “Ah, I better not hook it up to the sort of smart house here.” If it starts turning lights on and off like a poltergeist, I don’t think I’m gonna be all that popular. So, and part of the reason I say this, I’ve heard some of the stories of people who have hooked it up to their whole life.
DHH
And I mean, it’s not my story to tell, so I’ll just share sort of the brief anecdote. One guy was telling the story about how he hooked it up to both his health data- … and his Tesla car. And his agent got obsessed with the fact that he wasn’t drinking enough water, and like, “Hey, you gotta drink more water.” So at some point he’s driving along, and suddenly the Tesla starts driving in a new direction. The agent had realized there was a grocery store on the way home-
And I mean, it’s not my story to tell, so I’ll just share sort of the brief anecdote. One guy was telling the story about how he hooked it up to both his health data- … and his Tesla car. And his agent got obsessed with the fact that he wasn’t drinking enough water, and like, “Hey, you gotta drink more water.” So at some point he’s driving along, and suddenly the Tesla starts driving in a new direction. The agent had realized there was a grocery store on the way home-
Lex Fridman
Wow
Wow
DHH
… that they could swing by-
… that they could swing by-
Lex Fridman
That’s great
That’s great
DHH
… and pick up some water.
… and pick up some water.
Lex Fridman
That’s great.
That’s great.
DHH
And you’re like, this is one of those things where it’s like both funny and also totally Black Mirror, and also totally like, well, okay, there’s not that many steps from here where the poltergeist is in your house. So I was just like, “Ah, I don’t need that.” I do actually now like the fact that I can control the agents through Claude Code, just through the app if I, even if I don’t use them that much.
And you’re like, this is one of those things where it’s like both funny and also totally Black Mirror, and also totally like, well, okay, there’s not that many steps from here where the poltergeist is in your house. So I was just like, “Ah, I don’t need that.” I do actually now like the fact that I can control the agents through Claude Code, just through the app if I, even if I don’t use them that much.
Lex Fridman
I do think it’s very useful to, for both OpenClaude and Hermes Agent to use it to get a glimpse of a different interaction mode.
I do think it’s very useful to, for both OpenClaude and Hermes Agent to use it to get a glimpse of a different interaction mode.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And like, just to ’cause it feels like the future, not necessarily in this way, but it’s in some ways going there.
And like, just to ’cause it feels like the future, not necessarily in this way, but it’s in some ways going there.
DHH
Yes. I think what’s also different with those systems is they have this whole memory system, where they’re building up knowledge of who you are and what you like. Toby has told the stories about how his agent will shop for him, that it has an allowance, and it’ll pick out clothes for him, and it’ll just show up at the door because his agent’s- … bought something for him. And like, it’s one of those things where like, man, that feels future. Also a little scary. But I can live vicariously through others who are on that frontier.
Yes. I think what’s also different with those systems is they have this whole memory system, where they’re building up knowledge of who you are and what you like. Toby has told the stories about how his agent will shop for him, that it has an allowance, and it’ll pick out clothes for him, and it’ll just show up at the door because his agent’s- … bought something for him. And like, it’s one of those things where like, man, that feels future. Also a little scary. But I can live vicariously through others who are on that frontier.
Lex Fridman
And like you said, you’re thinking of, in the future, doing a mobile version of Mach-E.
And like you said, you’re thinking of, in the future, doing a mobile version of Mach-E.
DHH
So I mean, this is the delusions of grandeur that start kicking in once you get the seemingly unlimited powers- … I’ve witnessed with the creation of Quattro.
So I mean, this is the delusions of grandeur that start kicking in once you get the seemingly unlimited powers- … I’ve witnessed with the creation of Quattro.
Lex Fridman
So what would that look like? Hard to describe. Do you mean like Android?
So what would that look like? Hard to describe. Do you mean like Android?
DHH
That’s the obvious path, right? So Android is open source, and you can fork it, and people have. There’s all sorts of—GrapheneOS is one such version. There are limitations to that model, I know that. Tap-to-pay and other things around camera models and so forth, but that all seems surmountable. It all seems that I would love if my phone was as malleable as my computer, if it looked as cool as my computer now does. If I could get essentially Omarchy mobile, that sounds amazing.
That’s the obvious path, right? So Android is open source, and you can fork it, and people have. There’s all sorts of—GrapheneOS is one such version. There are limitations to that model, I know that. Tap-to-pay and other things around camera models and so forth, but that all seems surmountable. It all seems that I would love if my phone was as malleable as my computer, if it looked as cool as my computer now does. If I could get essentially Omarchy mobile, that sounds amazing.
Lex Fridman
I wonder how much work that is.
I wonder how much work that is.
DHH
I’m gonna find out.
I’m gonna find out.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You know, it’s like those things that you realize once you start building, for example, that a browser is very difficult to do.
Yeah. You know, it’s like those things that you realize once you start building, for example, that a browser is very difficult to do.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And so, like, I wonder with the operating system—
And so, like, I wonder with the operating system—
DHH
Yeah, the developers of Ladybird are finding that out, like Andreas and— … his team. Now, interesting with that project was the browser’s basically the second most complicated software system in the world, the first one being the Linux kernel. Right? In terms of these large tens of millions of lines of code systems. So very audacious actually to begin such a mission with a small team like Andreas did before we had agents. But now that we do have agents, we’re gonna see, and we’re probably gonna see sooner rather than later. I mean, if there’s one thing agents are already exceptionally good at, it is to read specs and implement them. And I mean, I don’t know how long the specs are for CSS and HTML at this point, and JavaScript on top, but they’re very long.
Yeah, the developers of Ladybird are finding that out, like Andreas and— … his team. Now, interesting with that project was the browser’s basically the second most complicated software system in the world, the first one being the Linux kernel. Right? In terms of these large tens of millions of lines of code systems. So very audacious actually to begin such a mission with a small team like Andreas did before we had agents. But now that we do have agents, we’re gonna see, and we’re probably gonna see sooner rather than later. I mean, if there’s one thing agents are already exceptionally good at, it is to read specs and implement them. And I mean, I don’t know how long the specs are for CSS and HTML at this point, and JavaScript on top, but they’re very long.
DHH
And it would take humans many, many years to implement them. We’re gonna find out just how quickly agents can do them.
And it would take humans many, many years to implement them. We’re gonna find out just how quickly agents can do them.
Politics and immigration
Lex Fridman
You mentioned getting some criticism for Omarchy, so let’s walk further down that path of criticism. You have made some of your political opinions known. I guess you could broadly put in the category of immigration or illegal immigration, or what—
You mentioned getting some criticism for Omarchy, so let’s walk further down that path of criticism. You have made some of your political opinions known. I guess you could broadly put in the category of immigration or illegal immigration, or what—
DHH
I’d say mass immigration.
I’d say mass immigration.
Lex Fridman
Mass immigration, the role of demographics in the formation of a culture, of a society, of a nation, and you’ve gotten quite a lot of criticism for that and created a lot of drama. Do you regret any of that drama? Like, what’s your general thinking about-
Mass immigration, the role of demographics in the formation of a culture, of a society, of a nation, and you’ve gotten quite a lot of criticism for that and created a lot of drama. Do you regret any of that drama? Like, what’s your general thinking about-
DHH
Not for a second.
Not for a second.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
DHH
And the reason I say that is that the Overton window does not open itself. It opens one nudge at a time by people risking a little. A little reputation, a little pushback, a little criticism, or maybe sometimes a lot of reputation or a lot of criticism or a lot of pushback. And I think the question of mass immigration in Europe was for many years this total taboo, and it still is in several European countries. Now, for reasons of maybe just chance and happenstance, they weren’t in Denmark. The Danes started having the discussion around mass immigration and the consequences thereof in the mid-’90s.
And the reason I say that is that the Overton window does not open itself. It opens one nudge at a time by people risking a little. A little reputation, a little pushback, a little criticism, or maybe sometimes a lot of reputation or a lot of criticism or a lot of pushback. And I think the question of mass immigration in Europe was for many years this total taboo, and it still is in several European countries. Now, for reasons of maybe just chance and happenstance, they weren’t in Denmark. The Danes started having the discussion around mass immigration and the consequences thereof in the mid-’90s.
DHH
Really early. And some of it can be traced back to one man, Mogens Glistrup, who was a very quirky character. I remember him, seeing him on the TV in the ’80s talking about the dangers of mass immigration. And this was at a time where– I grew up in the ’80s, and in the neighborhood I grew up in, in Brønshøj, in, what was it? ’84, 99% ethnic Danes, people who could trace their lineage back to Danes who’d lived in that country for 1,000 years. The Danes have one of the oldest monarchies in the world, all the way back to Harald Bluetooth, who’s literally who has named the standard Bluetooth. So well over 1,000 years. Like, there’s a long lineage there of people who lived in the same place. And 99% of the people lived in that neighborhood.
Really early. And some of it can be traced back to one man, Mogens Glistrup, who was a very quirky character. I remember him, seeing him on the TV in the ’80s talking about the dangers of mass immigration. And this was at a time where– I grew up in the ’80s, and in the neighborhood I grew up in, in Brønshøj, in, what was it? ’84, 99% ethnic Danes, people who could trace their lineage back to Danes who’d lived in that country for 1,000 years. The Danes have one of the oldest monarchies in the world, all the way back to Harald Bluetooth, who’s literally who has named the standard Bluetooth. So well over 1,000 years. Like, there’s a long lineage there of people who lived in the same place. And 99% of the people lived in that neighborhood.
DHH
And then early ’90s, I think it goes to 5% or something like that, and then at this point, it’s down to around 60-something or 70%-
And then early ’90s, I think it goes to 5% or something like that, and then at this point, it’s down to around 60-something or 70%-
DHH
in Brønshøj. That’s a big change. And the Danes started noticing that or talking about that, that this was not an undivided blessing, that there were downsides to mass immigration in about the ’90s. And the debate really roared through the 2000s in a way that didn’t happen in the neighboring countries. So Sweden in particular just didn’t have that debate at all. Total taboo. Same thing with Norway, same thing with other countries in Europe. And suddenly now, after some years after ’15, where we had the big migration of a million Syrians walking up through the highways in Europe, and Germany choosing to take a lot of them and 30,000 arriving in Denmark and so forth, it’s gotten more of a focus, right?
in Brønshøj. That’s a big change. And the Danes started noticing that or talking about that, that this was not an undivided blessing, that there were downsides to mass immigration in about the ’90s. And the debate really roared through the 2000s in a way that didn’t happen in the neighboring countries. So Sweden in particular just didn’t have that debate at all. Total taboo. Same thing with Norway, same thing with other countries in Europe. And suddenly now, after some years after ’15, where we had the big migration of a million Syrians walking up through the highways in Europe, and Germany choosing to take a lot of them and 30,000 arriving in Denmark and so forth, it’s gotten more of a focus, right?
DHH
Because this change has happened. And one of the ways I find that you can spot where sort of there’s something that isn’t right in the culture is, like, what are you allowed to talk about? What are you allowed to notice, actually, is how I should put it. And what I noticed in an essay, when was that? Only a year and a half ago as I remember London, was that I started coming to London in the late ’90s or something like that. At the time, whatever, it’s 59%, 60% ethnic Brits. And then 20 years later, we’re down to 34% or something like that. Like, that’s noticeable. Like, literally just walking on the street, you realize, well, this is a different city from what it was when I visited 20 years ago.
Because this change has happened. And one of the ways I find that you can spot where sort of there’s something that isn’t right in the culture is, like, what are you allowed to talk about? What are you allowed to notice, actually, is how I should put it. And what I noticed in an essay, when was that? Only a year and a half ago as I remember London, was that I started coming to London in the late ’90s or something like that. At the time, whatever, it’s 59%, 60% ethnic Brits. And then 20 years later, we’re down to 34% or something like that. Like, that’s noticeable. Like, literally just walking on the street, you realize, well, this is a different city from what it was when I visited 20 years ago.
DHH
And if you went 20 years before that, you get back to similar rates as what the Danes have. This was like a country of ethnic Brits in the 85s, 90s percentiles- … if you get further back. So that’s a different country in a generation. It’s okay to notice that. It’s also okay to think, “Do you know what? I don’t agree with that.”
And if you went 20 years before that, you get back to similar rates as what the Danes have. This was like a country of ethnic Brits in the 85s, 90s percentiles- … if you get further back. So that’s a different country in a generation. It’s okay to notice that. It’s also okay to think, “Do you know what? I don’t agree with that.”
DHH
“I wish it wasn’t that way.” I mean, the last time I was in China was ’19, 2019. I was in Shanghai. It was all Chinese. If I, when I go back here this October, suddenly find that there’s only 30% Chinese and then there’s 70% other people, I’d be a little weird. I’d probably be like, “What happened?” And I would not take offense if the Chinese in that instant would go like, “Ah, we don’t like that.” So this idea that countries of Europe don’t have a right to, A, notice what’s happening and, B, oppose what’s happening, I find just to be wrong, right?
“I wish it wasn’t that way.” I mean, the last time I was in China was ’19, 2019. I was in Shanghai. It was all Chinese. If I, when I go back here this October, suddenly find that there’s only 30% Chinese and then there’s 70% other people, I’d be a little weird. I’d probably be like, “What happened?” And I would not take offense if the Chinese in that instant would go like, “Ah, we don’t like that.” So this idea that countries of Europe don’t have a right to, A, notice what’s happening and, B, oppose what’s happening, I find just to be wrong, right?
DHH
Like there’s just– I think there’s a moral argument for self-determination, and we invoke that argument all the time in other regions around the world that like, oh, the people who live in that region, they have a right to self-determination for their country. And I think it’s completely fair for, say, the Danes or the Swedes or the Norwegians to go like, “Well, we’ve been kingdoms here for a thousand years with a certain ethnic mix-up.” It’s a– I mean, I’m a big fan of immigration. I’m an immigrant to the US. Cherry-picked immigration where countries compete to attract the smartest, most talented people around the world is really good.
Like there’s just– I think there’s a moral argument for self-determination, and we invoke that argument all the time in other regions around the world that like, oh, the people who live in that region, they have a right to self-determination for their country. And I think it’s completely fair for, say, the Danes or the Swedes or the Norwegians to go like, “Well, we’ve been kingdoms here for a thousand years with a certain ethnic mix-up.” It’s a– I mean, I’m a big fan of immigration. I’m an immigrant to the US. Cherry-picked immigration where countries compete to attract the smartest, most talented people around the world is really good.
Lex Fridman
Legal merit-based immigration.
Legal merit-based immigration.
DHH
Merit-based is key here because there’s actually virtually no illegal immigration in most of Europe. Southern Europe has some illegal immigration, but most of Europe does not have a big problem with illegal immigration.
Merit-based is key here because there’s actually virtually no illegal immigration in most of Europe. Southern Europe has some illegal immigration, but most of Europe does not have a big problem with illegal immigration.
DHH
And the problem is with mass immigration of other kinds, and that you end up with demographics that are just totally different from what they were even a few short decades ago. And I think the countries of Europe would benefit from immigration. In fact, one of the interesting things about the Danes is they carry meticulous statistics on immigration. I’m not entirely sure why they’re so detailed. Maybe it’s all the way back to Mogens Glistrup and his discussion in the ’90s, but they do. And what’s clear from those statistics is that when the Danes have folks from the UK, France, the US show up, on average, those immigrants are really beneficial to the Danish state. They contribute far more than what they ask of the state.
And the problem is with mass immigration of other kinds, and that you end up with demographics that are just totally different from what they were even a few short decades ago. And I think the countries of Europe would benefit from immigration. In fact, one of the interesting things about the Danes is they carry meticulous statistics on immigration. I’m not entirely sure why they’re so detailed. Maybe it’s all the way back to Mogens Glistrup and his discussion in the ’90s, but they do. And what’s clear from those statistics is that when the Danes have folks from the UK, France, the US show up, on average, those immigrants are really beneficial to the Danish state. They contribute far more than what they ask of the state.
DHH
So the Danes should accept immigrants who do that, who contribute far more than they take. Then you look at other forms of immigrant groups. There was just a tally that came out last week from a Danish politicians that had asked the, I think finance ministry to do this tally with the latest numbers. What does it cost the Danish state to have positive immigration? This case as I mentioned. I think for the on that list whatever, France, UK, US, they were all clustered around the same thing, about $25,000 net benefit to the Danish state every year. It’s like, wow, that’s very positive. That’s average again, right? And then at the other end of the spectrum on the most costly immigrants was Somalis.
So the Danes should accept immigrants who do that, who contribute far more than they take. Then you look at other forms of immigrant groups. There was just a tally that came out last week from a Danish politicians that had asked the, I think finance ministry to do this tally with the latest numbers. What does it cost the Danish state to have positive immigration? This case as I mentioned. I think for the on that list whatever, France, UK, US, they were all clustered around the same thing, about $25,000 net benefit to the Danish state every year. It’s like, wow, that’s very positive. That’s average again, right? And then at the other end of the spectrum on the most costly immigrants was Somalis.
DHH
They ended up costing the Danish state on average $28,000 a year. I think it’s fair for the Danes to go like, “We’d prefer to get more French, Brits, and Americans and not so many Somalis.”
They ended up costing the Danish state on average $28,000 a year. I think it’s fair for the Danes to go like, “We’d prefer to get more French, Brits, and Americans and not so many Somalis.”
Lex Fridman
Why do you think you got so much hate on that post?
Why do you think you got so much hate on that post?
DHH
That’s a very taboo topic in a lot of circles.
That’s a very taboo topic in a lot of circles.
Lex Fridman
Some of it has to do with Overton window expansion?
Some of it has to do with Overton window expansion?
DHH
I’m sure, but I also think– I mean, I wanna take the steel man argument here. I do think that it, this can turn ugly, right? Is it possible for some of these things to just veer into overt racism that isn’t founded in anything else but a hatred of other people? Yeah, that could happen. But that risk does not negate the need to have a discussion about the makeup of your country and what your immigration policy should be like. And what I also find so funny is, especially in Europe, it’s so kind of myopic that this discussion about whether Europeans should have a right to self-determination about what their countries look like, that standard seems to only apply there. No one is trying to tell the Japanese, “Hey, you’re too Japanese.” Like whatever, it’s 98%, I think, in Tokyo that’s, um-
I’m sure, but I also think– I mean, I wanna take the steel man argument here. I do think that it, this can turn ugly, right? Is it possible for some of these things to just veer into overt racism that isn’t founded in anything else but a hatred of other people? Yeah, that could happen. But that risk does not negate the need to have a discussion about the makeup of your country and what your immigration policy should be like. And what I also find so funny is, especially in Europe, it’s so kind of myopic that this discussion about whether Europeans should have a right to self-determination about what their countries look like, that standard seems to only apply there. No one is trying to tell the Japanese, “Hey, you’re too Japanese.” Like whatever, it’s 98%, I think, in Tokyo that’s, um-
DHH
… Ethnic Japanese, right? Like, is anyone trying to tell the Japanese that their Tokyo would be a much better country if they were down to London levels of ethnic Japanese, that it was, whatever, 37%? I don’t think so. So there’s this weird almost self-loathing, in my opinion, I mean Gad calls it suicidal empathy-
… Ethnic Japanese, right? Like, is anyone trying to tell the Japanese that their Tokyo would be a much better country if they were down to London levels of ethnic Japanese, that it was, whatever, 37%? I don’t think so. So there’s this weird almost self-loathing, in my opinion, I mean Gad calls it suicidal empathy-
DHH
… that permeates this stuff to a degree that I still haven’t fully unpacked. Like, where is this coming from? Why is it that way? But regardless, I just noticed, hey, London looks different. I preferred the old London, as I would say I preferred the neighborhood that I grew up in in Copenhagen, how it looked in the ’80s. Like I totally get how you can then jump five leaps and go like, “Okay, well, that’s racist.” And I also, I don’t care anymore. Like, this is a fair discussion to have.
… that permeates this stuff to a degree that I still haven’t fully unpacked. Like, where is this coming from? Why is it that way? But regardless, I just noticed, hey, London looks different. I preferred the old London, as I would say I preferred the neighborhood that I grew up in in Copenhagen, how it looked in the ’80s. Like I totally get how you can then jump five leaps and go like, “Okay, well, that’s racist.” And I also, I don’t care anymore. Like, this is a fair discussion to have.
DHH
Countries and peoples have a right to set an immigration policy, and this notion that we shouldn’t have any borders or, or even worse than that, it’s all just a blank slate, that all peoples are just the same, and we can take people from one place of the earth and we can place them in another place of, on the earth and everything’s just gonna work out hunky dory. Empirically not true. Europe has been running that experiment since the ’80s. It hasn’t panned out well, and now there are forces in Europe who wanna undo that experiment, who wants to end mass immigration as it’s been run so far. And I happen to believe, and so do a majority of Danes and a bunch of other peoples, that like, “Do you know what? Yeah, it hasn’t been working how we’ve been doing it.
Countries and peoples have a right to set an immigration policy, and this notion that we shouldn’t have any borders or, or even worse than that, it’s all just a blank slate, that all peoples are just the same, and we can take people from one place of the earth and we can place them in another place of, on the earth and everything’s just gonna work out hunky dory. Empirically not true. Europe has been running that experiment since the ’80s. It hasn’t panned out well, and now there are forces in Europe who wanna undo that experiment, who wants to end mass immigration as it’s been run so far. And I happen to believe, and so do a majority of Danes and a bunch of other peoples, that like, “Do you know what? Yeah, it hasn’t been working how we’ve been doing it.
DHH
We gotta make some changes.” And I don’t think that means, again, zero immigration. Again, I’m an immigrant. I think US, generally speaking, have benefited tremendously from immigration, but that’s the kind of sleight of hand. Immigration depends greatly on who immigrates. And a country benefits when the people who immigrate are net contributors to the society, and in most cases, that they assimilate with the local culture.
We gotta make some changes.” And I don’t think that means, again, zero immigration. Again, I’m an immigrant. I think US, generally speaking, have benefited tremendously from immigration, but that’s the kind of sleight of hand. Immigration depends greatly on who immigrates. And a country benefits when the people who immigrate are net contributors to the society, and in most cases, that they assimilate with the local culture.
DHH
If you come to Denmark and you wanna become a Dane, and you put in all the effort, and you contribute to society, I think most Danes would be quite happy to allow that in a reasonable number. If you come to Denmark and you don’t wanna assimilate, and you are a net drain on society, and you live in a parallel society, it’s also fair for Danes to say like, “Uh, let’s stop doing that.”
If you come to Denmark and you wanna become a Dane, and you put in all the effort, and you contribute to society, I think most Danes would be quite happy to allow that in a reasonable number. If you come to Denmark and you don’t wanna assimilate, and you are a net drain on society, and you live in a parallel society, it’s also fair for Danes to say like, “Uh, let’s stop doing that.”
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting that I’m not well-versed on the immigration system in the United States, but as far as I understand, merit-based systems have not passed here.
It’s interesting that I’m not well-versed on the immigration system in the United States, but as far as I understand, merit-based systems have not passed here.
DHH
And then also, American culture is very different. This is a point I did not fully appreciate until living both places extensively. America has a culture of optional assimilation, where it is much easier and then much more condoned for someone coming from Denmark or Ukraine or wherever, come to America, buy into the American set of values and norms and culture, and then be able to be respected as Americans by other Americans. This is what’s so funny to me when there’s discussion like, “America is such a racist country.” I’m like, “Have you ever been anywhere? Do you know what other countries are like?” Like, if you think America is the most racist country, you are simply misinformed.
And then also, American culture is very different. This is a point I did not fully appreciate until living both places extensively. America has a culture of optional assimilation, where it is much easier and then much more condoned for someone coming from Denmark or Ukraine or wherever, come to America, buy into the American set of values and norms and culture, and then be able to be respected as Americans by other Americans. This is what’s so funny to me when there’s discussion like, “America is such a racist country.” I’m like, “Have you ever been anywhere? Do you know what other countries are like?” Like, if you think America is the most racist country, you are simply misinformed.
DHH
I mean, we’re dealing with that with time we’ve spent in Denmark. My wife is American of Scandinavian heritage- … but multiple generations in the US. Very difficult. Very difficult-
I mean, we’re dealing with that with time we’ve spent in Denmark. My wife is American of Scandinavian heritage- … but multiple generations in the US. Very difficult. Very difficult-
Lex Fridman
Oh, wow.
Oh, wow.
DHH
… as a blonde, blue-eyed woman who’s put in all sorts of effort learning the language and doing everything, still very, very difficult to assimilate to Danish culture. In a way where if that had been the other way around and she had been Danish and moving to the US, it would not have been that difficult at all. And this was the other thing. I mean, living in a country like Denmark with an American wife who is of Scandinavian heritage and has put in all the effort, and still realizing, man, assimilation is incredibly difficult, even when you’re 97% there all the way. Holy smokes, must it be almost impossible if you come from a completely foreign culture-
… as a blonde, blue-eyed woman who’s put in all sorts of effort learning the language and doing everything, still very, very difficult to assimilate to Danish culture. In a way where if that had been the other way around and she had been Danish and moving to the US, it would not have been that difficult at all. And this was the other thing. I mean, living in a country like Denmark with an American wife who is of Scandinavian heritage and has put in all the effort, and still realizing, man, assimilation is incredibly difficult, even when you’re 97% there all the way. Holy smokes, must it be almost impossible if you come from a completely foreign culture-
DHH
… and foreign norms and the rest of it. And of course, that’s what the stats I just quoted bear out, that the more dissimilar the culture is and the further it is, the less likely to be successful.
… and foreign norms and the rest of it. And of course, that’s what the stats I just quoted bear out, that the more dissimilar the culture is and the further it is, the less likely to be successful.
Lex Fridman
Has articulating that stance cost you friendships, relationships?
Has articulating that stance cost you friendships, relationships?
DHH
Yes, but not just that alone, I would say. It’s more of the great divide that happened around 2020, where I think a lot of these political fault lines really opened up. And I mean, the shorthand in the US, I think is were you woke or not? And clearly, I had a bunch of people that I thought I had good relations with for many years, who suddenly once that political fault line opened up, they were clearly just not anymore. And I think that’s regrettable. And I think I’ve tried to put an effort into sort of both understanding where that comes from, in part because I’ve changed my mind on several of these topics over the years, and it was like, well, sometimes you just change your mind after time. Sometimes you change your mind after you get new information.
Yes, but not just that alone, I would say. It’s more of the great divide that happened around 2020, where I think a lot of these political fault lines really opened up. And I mean, the shorthand in the US, I think is were you woke or not? And clearly, I had a bunch of people that I thought I had good relations with for many years, who suddenly once that political fault line opened up, they were clearly just not anymore. And I think that’s regrettable. And I think I’ve tried to put an effort into sort of both understanding where that comes from, in part because I’ve changed my mind on several of these topics over the years, and it was like, well, sometimes you just change your mind after time. Sometimes you change your mind after you get new information.
DHH
There’s all sorts of reasons and moments why you may change your mind, and we don’t all change our mind on the same schedule or at all.
There’s all sorts of reasons and moments why you may change your mind, and we don’t all change our mind on the same schedule or at all.
DHH
So surrounding yourself and, or at least interacting with people that don’t think like you on every topic, I think it’s quite healthy. I mean, I occasionally discuss politics with my brother. I mean, we don’t quite see eye to eye on all these topics, and sometimes the discussions can get a little heated, but then they’ll also calm down and we realize, all right, okay, so we don’t agree on this, and then we agree on a lot of other things. We appreciate a lot of the same things. Now, this was actually one of the things when we had our big blowup at Basecamp, I came to appreciate in a whole new way this– earlier norm that talking politics or religion or money with strangers or even acquaintances, and certainly with colleagues, was just not a good idea.
So surrounding yourself and, or at least interacting with people that don’t think like you on every topic, I think it’s quite healthy. I mean, I occasionally discuss politics with my brother. I mean, we don’t quite see eye to eye on all these topics, and sometimes the discussions can get a little heated, but then they’ll also calm down and we realize, all right, okay, so we don’t agree on this, and then we agree on a lot of other things. We appreciate a lot of the same things. Now, this was actually one of the things when we had our big blowup at Basecamp, I came to appreciate in a whole new way this– earlier norm that talking politics or religion or money with strangers or even acquaintances, and certainly with colleagues, was just not a good idea.
DHH
That you had a much higher likelihood of being able to carry a good working relationship with someone if you’re not rubbing your political differences up against each other all the time. So I actually think liberals and conservatives should work together. I think the country would be much worse off if there’s a complete separation between the tribes, and then there can’t be any overlap or interaction. And I think that mingling is so much easier to do if you just don’t focus on your differences all the time. Focus on what you like together. I mean, this is some of the people I’ve had unfortunately drifted from in tech. We had so much in common, so much shared love for, say, Ruby or other things and, like, isn’t that unfortunate?
That you had a much higher likelihood of being able to carry a good working relationship with someone if you’re not rubbing your political differences up against each other all the time. So I actually think liberals and conservatives should work together. I think the country would be much worse off if there’s a complete separation between the tribes, and then there can’t be any overlap or interaction. And I think that mingling is so much easier to do if you just don’t focus on your differences all the time. Focus on what you like together. I mean, this is some of the people I’ve had unfortunately drifted from in tech. We had so much in common, so much shared love for, say, Ruby or other things and, like, isn’t that unfortunate?
Lex Fridman
I would like to live in a world where the differences are very interesting to also talk about. And not to be overly emotional- … about even radical differences. Because in the differences, first of all, that’s where interesting stuff is. And, but also, it’s how you grow. It’s a sign of health in a society if the differences are embraced and they are brought together into community where you can talk about it.
I would like to live in a world where the differences are very interesting to also talk about. And not to be overly emotional- … about even radical differences. Because in the differences, first of all, that’s where interesting stuff is. And, but also, it’s how you grow. It’s a sign of health in a society if the differences are embraced and they are brought together into community where you can talk about it.
DHH
One of the great illustrations of that for me was when I watched a clip from William F. Buckley’s show. I think it was called Firing Line or-
One of the great illustrations of that for me was when I watched a clip from William F. Buckley’s show. I think it was called Firing Line or-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah
Yeah, yeah
DHH
… something like that. And he had a member of the Black Panthers- … on his panel. It was quite obvious that those two gentlemen did not share a lot of politics. They were able to carry a conversation for, I think I watched it, 25 minutes. And Buckley’s just asking, like, “So what do you think about this? What do you think about this?” And like, the Black Panther would reply as you would expect the Black Panther to reply in the ’70s. Like, there was not a lot of sort of conciliatory tones. And I just thought, like, wow, that is so rare. If you had seen that show today, it would’ve been a shouting match. It would’ve been just accusations being hurled back and forth.
… something like that. And he had a member of the Black Panthers- … on his panel. It was quite obvious that those two gentlemen did not share a lot of politics. They were able to carry a conversation for, I think I watched it, 25 minutes. And Buckley’s just asking, like, “So what do you think about this? What do you think about this?” And like, the Black Panther would reply as you would expect the Black Panther to reply in the ’70s. Like, there was not a lot of sort of conciliatory tones. And I just thought, like, wow, that is so rare. If you had seen that show today, it would’ve been a shouting match. It would’ve been just accusations being hurled back and forth.
DHH
The fact that Buckley was able to just have these conversations with people he vehemently disagreed with and still explore all the intellectual facets of their standpoints and letting them speak to those facets, talks of a lost era that I’d very much like to get back to. I mean, I always actually loved talking politics with friends that I trusted could talk about these topics in a way where it didn’t have to be existential.
The fact that Buckley was able to just have these conversations with people he vehemently disagreed with and still explore all the intellectual facets of their standpoints and letting them speak to those facets, talks of a lost era that I’d very much like to get back to. I mean, I always actually loved talking politics with friends that I trusted could talk about these topics in a way where it didn’t have to be existential.
Lex Fridman
But there’s something about the current era where that’s harder and harder to come by. And so what you just articulated is important to say regularly to remind people of an ideal we should all strive for, to be able to have differences and talk about them. ‘Cause like, politics is fun. Like I’ve gotten used to saying I hate politics at this point, but what I really mean is whatever the system that’s currently happening, where there’s certain topics, and we know all the phrases you can say that somehow put you in a bin of blue or red, and that creates drama versus a conversation.
But there’s something about the current era where that’s harder and harder to come by. And so what you just articulated is important to say regularly to remind people of an ideal we should all strive for, to be able to have differences and talk about them. ‘Cause like, politics is fun. Like I’ve gotten used to saying I hate politics at this point, but what I really mean is whatever the system that’s currently happening, where there’s certain topics, and we know all the phrases you can say that somehow put you in a bin of blue or red, and that creates drama versus a conversation.
Lex Fridman
Like I could think of a lot of harmless, if I wasn’t paying attention to the internet, I could think of a bunch of harmless statements I could make analyzing the situation in the world that would trigger everybody to say, “Oh, that guy’s a leftist-” piece of shit,” or a, you know, a right-wing fascist. And then objectively, if I wasn’t paying attention to the internet, I would be, and I have been shocked. ‘Cause I haven’t been paying attention to the internet deeply. Uh but reading and preparing a lot, for example, for the war in Ukraine, and I have been shocked how certain statements from me can come off as one way or the other, and I get viciously attacked for it.
Like I could think of a lot of harmless, if I wasn’t paying attention to the internet, I could think of a bunch of harmless statements I could make analyzing the situation in the world that would trigger everybody to say, “Oh, that guy’s a leftist-” piece of shit,” or a, you know, a right-wing fascist. And then objectively, if I wasn’t paying attention to the internet, I would be, and I have been shocked. ‘Cause I haven’t been paying attention to the internet deeply. Uh but reading and preparing a lot, for example, for the war in Ukraine, and I have been shocked how certain statements from me can come off as one way or the other, and I get viciously attacked for it.
Lex Fridman
But what that attack is doing is it’s saying, “Hey, you, asshole who thinks you could just move about and think freely, pick a bin- … and sit in that fucking bin.” Put on that blue shirt or red shirt. And then, and then actually what I’ve realized is things calm down. They don’t, the system doesn’t pick on you if you just say, “I’m a blue person,” or, “I’m a red person.” But if you’re just, like, curiously exploring the world and reasoning about the world, the system punishes you. And I hate that, ’cause I wanna get back to the Buckley and the Black Panther discussion.
But what that attack is doing is it’s saying, “Hey, you, asshole who thinks you could just move about and think freely, pick a bin- … and sit in that fucking bin.” Put on that blue shirt or red shirt. And then, and then actually what I’ve realized is things calm down. They don’t, the system doesn’t pick on you if you just say, “I’m a blue person,” or, “I’m a red person.” But if you’re just, like, curiously exploring the world and reasoning about the world, the system punishes you. And I hate that, ’cause I wanna get back to the Buckley and the Black Panther discussion.
Lex Fridman
And you were just saying opinions. But then looking pragmatically at the situation, I have realized not to mention politics unless I really care about an issue. ‘Cause I realize there’s a cost. They’ll put you in the blue bin or red bin. So you have to be more deliberate about choosing.
And you were just saying opinions. But then looking pragmatically at the situation, I have realized not to mention politics unless I really care about an issue. ‘Cause I realize there’s a cost. They’ll put you in the blue bin or red bin. So you have to be more deliberate about choosing.
DHH
Yes. And I’ve tried to be more conscious of that, too. And then when I do choose to speak about it, it’s usually because I have deliberated, and I think- … “You know what? This is worth it.” Now, I say that, and then I also catch myself thinking the opposite all the time, that I follow some person or another for whatever their technical work, and then I- … learned or political standpoint. And I often do think, “I wish I didn’t know that.” So, it’s hypocritical- … then to think that of other people and then go like, “Well, occasionally I will-
Yes. And I’ve tried to be more conscious of that, too. And then when I do choose to speak about it, it’s usually because I have deliberated, and I think- … “You know what? This is worth it.” Now, I say that, and then I also catch myself thinking the opposite all the time, that I follow some person or another for whatever their technical work, and then I- … learned or political standpoint. And I often do think, “I wish I didn’t know that.” So, it’s hypocritical- … then to think that of other people and then go like, “Well, occasionally I will-
DHH
… chime in on a debate that’s controversial,” and then you have to accept that there is a price to that. And I do think you should, and more people should, be somewhat conscious about that. And again, we’re both contradicting ourselves here, but saying like, “Wouldn’t it be nice if we could talk about politics in more free and open forum and just intellectually turn ideas around?” Yes, it would. Is that currently possible in the climate of social media and so forth? It’s quite difficult. Now, some of it could simply also be a moment, and we could get past that moment.
… chime in on a debate that’s controversial,” and then you have to accept that there is a price to that. And I do think you should, and more people should, be somewhat conscious about that. And again, we’re both contradicting ourselves here, but saying like, “Wouldn’t it be nice if we could talk about politics in more free and open forum and just intellectually turn ideas around?” Yes, it would. Is that currently possible in the climate of social media and so forth? It’s quite difficult. Now, some of it could simply also be a moment, and we could get past that moment.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I hope so.
Yeah. I hope so.
DHH
Maybe there is a way to get back to Buckley’s conversation with the Black Panthers, even on social media, in a way where those discussions don’t lead to the sort of just vicious mob cancellation nonsense drives that we’ve had, right? I actually think we’re closer there now than we were five years ago. Like, the tribalism and the sanctions those tribes were able to exact on heretics in 2020 was way greater than it was in 2025. Certainly within tech. Now, I know if you’re in academia, I mean, try going into the sociology department at I don’t know, Harvard and mention some right-wing ideas. I don’t think it’s gonna go over very well, and I don’t think you’re gonna recover from it quickly.
Maybe there is a way to get back to Buckley’s conversation with the Black Panthers, even on social media, in a way where those discussions don’t lead to the sort of just vicious mob cancellation nonsense drives that we’ve had, right? I actually think we’re closer there now than we were five years ago. Like, the tribalism and the sanctions those tribes were able to exact on heretics in 2020 was way greater than it was in 2025. Certainly within tech. Now, I know if you’re in academia, I mean, try going into the sociology department at I don’t know, Harvard and mention some right-wing ideas. I don’t think it’s gonna go over very well, and I don’t think you’re gonna recover from it quickly.
DHH
But in, in tech and in many other business domains at least, it is now possible to have an opinion that does not square with what the consensus was in 2020. That’s for sure.
But in, in tech and in many other business domains at least, it is now possible to have an opinion that does not square with what the consensus was in 2020. That’s for sure.
Lex Fridman
Well, there’s some drama in the Rails community. There’s some drama elsewhere. Is it… How did that turn out? Is that all okay?
Well, there’s some drama in the Rails community. There’s some drama elsewhere. Is it… How did that turn out? Is that all okay?
DHH
In the sense that every single round of drama shrinks. So it’s like we’ve, we had this peak infection of mega drama around the same time every other community had a peak infection of drama around 2020. And then you just see, like, every time there’s a new flare up, it’s less. And the kind of people who are ideologically wedded to sort of that struggle just shrinks and shrinks and shrinks. And at this point, one of the best things that happened for X, in my opinion, was that Bluesky and Mastodon came around. Because it kind of was like this honeypot for just the most vicious individuals on X and Twitter at the time, right?
In the sense that every single round of drama shrinks. So it’s like we’ve, we had this peak infection of mega drama around the same time every other community had a peak infection of drama around 2020. And then you just see, like, every time there’s a new flare up, it’s less. And the kind of people who are ideologically wedded to sort of that struggle just shrinks and shrinks and shrinks. And at this point, one of the best things that happened for X, in my opinion, was that Bluesky and Mastodon came around. Because it kind of was like this honeypot for just the most vicious individuals on X and Twitter at the time, right?
DHH
Who just congregated here in an ever-shrinking echo chamber that just went through purity cycle after purity cycle and shrank every single time to the point that there were just not a lot left. And the people who are left now there, they’re just out of sight, out of mind. And that’s not to say that X is some sort of perfect place, or there aren’t firing squads occasionally there, or there aren’t… But there’s less of it. Like, every single time I’ve been pulled into a Mastodon, or not been pulled in, just spectated from afar, thread, a Bluesky or whatever, it was like, “Oh, shit yeah, this is what Twitter used to be like. Jesus.” And now you can actually be on X, as I am, and, like, 90% of my engagement is about cool Linux stuff, cool technology stuff.
Who just congregated here in an ever-shrinking echo chamber that just went through purity cycle after purity cycle and shrank every single time to the point that there were just not a lot left. And the people who are left now there, they’re just out of sight, out of mind. And that’s not to say that X is some sort of perfect place, or there aren’t firing squads occasionally there, or there aren’t… But there’s less of it. Like, every single time I’ve been pulled into a Mastodon, or not been pulled in, just spectated from afar, thread, a Bluesky or whatever, it was like, “Oh, shit yeah, this is what Twitter used to be like. Jesus.” And now you can actually be on X, as I am, and, like, 90% of my engagement is about cool Linux stuff, cool technology stuff.
DHH
“Look, I discovered a new computer. Can you see how fast it is?” And I can have those conversations with other people who are just also excited about computers. And then there’s, like, 10% of it left that’s like, all right, I’ll chime in on something that’s a little controversial, and we can have a little discussion there. And then we can just go back to being excited about computers. The algorithm is actually very good at finding stuff that you will find interesting, or I shouldn’t say that, engaging. Sometimes it’s enraging, but it is engaging, and therefore, revealed preference is that most people want a For You page. They don’t want just a following feed.
“Look, I discovered a new computer. Can you see how fast it is?” And I can have those conversations with other people who are just also excited about computers. And then there’s, like, 10% of it left that’s like, all right, I’ll chime in on something that’s a little controversial, and we can have a little discussion there. And then we can just go back to being excited about computers. The algorithm is actually very good at finding stuff that you will find interesting, or I shouldn’t say that, engaging. Sometimes it’s enraging, but it is engaging, and therefore, revealed preference is that most people want a For You page. They don’t want just a following feed.
Lex Fridman
No, but they’re addicted to the For You page, right?
No, but they’re addicted to the For You page, right?
DHH
They… Yes, yes. That’s true.
They… Yes, yes. That’s true.
Lex Fridman
I think an LLM, like, if we had a strong LLM doing the feed that’s personalized, it would do much better. The problem is how to deliver that at scale is extremely difficult.
I think an LLM, like, if we had a strong LLM doing the feed that’s personalized, it would do much better. The problem is how to deliver that at scale is extremely difficult.
DHH
Well, the problem is the, the reward function is engagement. And as soon as the reward function is engagement— … engagement’s gonna follow base instincts, and here we go. But I also don’t wanna be so negative. To me, and I get we all have our own personalized algorithms, and sometimes it gets a little much. But I would say, on average, over the last 10 years, this is the best X has ever been. And I say that as someone who cares about a lot of technology talk, a lot of Linux talk, and a lot of that. That that’s able to happen now in a way where it doesn’t constantly get gatecrashed by people who wanna drag it into some political discussion…
Well, the problem is the, the reward function is engagement. And as soon as the reward function is engagement— … engagement’s gonna follow base instincts, and here we go. But I also don’t wanna be so negative. To me, and I get we all have our own personalized algorithms, and sometimes it gets a little much. But I would say, on average, over the last 10 years, this is the best X has ever been. And I say that as someone who cares about a lot of technology talk, a lot of Linux talk, and a lot of that. That that’s able to happen now in a way where it doesn’t constantly get gatecrashed by people who wanna drag it into some political discussion…
DHH
… I find to be really awesome. I find actually X to be a great place to find that. Now, it’s also a place to find other things, and we all have our own algorithms, so you can’t make any declarative announcements about what X is or what it isn’t. Your feed is probably totally different from my feed, and it’s totally different from someone else’s feed, right?
… I find to be really awesome. I find actually X to be a great place to find that. Now, it’s also a place to find other things, and we all have our own algorithms, so you can’t make any declarative announcements about what X is or what it isn’t. Your feed is probably totally different from my feed, and it’s totally different from someone else’s feed, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I can’t comment on this because of the nature of the fact that I interview a wide variety of people, my feed is probably just a—
Yeah, I can’t comment on this because of the nature of the fact that I interview a wide variety of people, my feed is probably just a—
DHH
Is it, is it good for your feed or is it bad for your feed that you have to have it, right?
Is it, is it good for your feed or is it bad for your feed that you have to have it, right?
Lex Fridman
It’s bad.
It’s bad.
DHH
Okay.
Okay.
Lex Fridman
It’s bad ’cause I could be like, “I’m eating this apple. It’s so delicious.”
It’s bad ’cause I could be like, “I’m eating this apple. It’s so delicious.”
DHH
Oh.
Oh.
Lex Fridman
And then a bunch of people will show up, “Well, it’s because you’re a Zelensky shill—
And then a bunch of people will show up, “Well, it’s because you’re a Zelensky shill—
DHH
Yeah, right.
Yeah, right.
Lex Fridman
… or you’re a Putin shill, you piece of shit.” It’s like, all right. I’ll just go back to the-
… or you’re a Putin shill, you piece of shit.” It’s like, all right. I’ll just go back to the-
DHH
I mean, I occasionally have a little bit of that where you just go like, “Wait, what? What are we talking about? What are you… Why would you show up in this way?” This is one of the reasons why I actually really enjoy podcasts, because I have found that even in long form writing, when I make long form arguments, people hear it in whatever voice they have in their head for me. And that often gets pre-programmed in advance of the arguments, just like, well, this guy is a, whatever, fascist. And then they hear the words and they read the words in those names. When they see or hear the actual tone of how I’m presenting the arguments, they may not agree with those arguments. I mean, many of them, of course, obviously don’t. But it’s much harder to just dismiss or hate someone like that.
I mean, I occasionally have a little bit of that where you just go like, “Wait, what? What are we talking about? What are you… Why would you show up in this way?” This is one of the reasons why I actually really enjoy podcasts, because I have found that even in long form writing, when I make long form arguments, people hear it in whatever voice they have in their head for me. And that often gets pre-programmed in advance of the arguments, just like, well, this guy is a, whatever, fascist. And then they hear the words and they read the words in those names. When they see or hear the actual tone of how I’m presenting the arguments, they may not agree with those arguments. I mean, many of them, of course, obviously don’t. But it’s much harder to just dismiss or hate someone like that.
DHH
At least that’s what I’ve found, and that’s the response that I’ve gotten, that people are like, “Well, I had a certain opinion and then I heard you on Lex. That actually sounded much more reasonable.”
At least that’s what I’ve found, and that’s the response that I’ve gotten, that people are like, “Well, I had a certain opinion and then I heard you on Lex. That actually sounded much more reasonable.”
Lex Fridman
But even more than that, I would love it if people just exercise this kind of approach to other people of, like, assuming they’re a good person.
But even more than that, I would love it if people just exercise this kind of approach to other people of, like, assuming they’re a good person.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And then, and if they have an opinion you disagree with, they’re a good person who has an opinion. You can maybe think they’re stupid, fine. Just think they’re lost. But think of them as a good person. I think if you think of, you start, there’s, one of the things that gets engagement is kind of shitting on other people.
And then, and if they have an opinion you disagree with, they’re a good person who has an opinion. You can maybe think they’re stupid, fine. Just think they’re lost. But think of them as a good person. I think if you think of, you start, there’s, one of the things that gets engagement is kind of shitting on other people.
DHH
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
And if you just approach other people as they’re, you’re looking for bad, you will always find bad in them. There’s something annoying about them.
And if you just approach other people as they’re, you’re looking for bad, you will always find bad in them. There’s something annoying about them.
DHH
100%.
100%.
Lex Fridman
And if you look at people in that way, you’re not gonna learn from it, and you’re gonna fill your heart with hate. You’re not gonna, it’s just a bad way to live and to interact with the world, and that is one of the things that the internet kind of encourages, so. It’d be nice if you just approach even people who you really disagree with, it’s like, oh, I might learn something from this person. The Black Panther person, William Buckley, we might hate just love them.
And if you look at people in that way, you’re not gonna learn from it, and you’re gonna fill your heart with hate. You’re not gonna, it’s just a bad way to live and to interact with the world, and that is one of the things that the internet kind of encourages, so. It’d be nice if you just approach even people who you really disagree with, it’s like, oh, I might learn something from this person. The Black Panther person, William Buckley, we might hate just love them.
DHH
So microcosm of this. There’s a guy, Theo, I don’t know if you follow him.
So microcosm of this. There’s a guy, Theo, I don’t know if you follow him.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
DHH
We had a bit of a thing over the fact that we stopped using TypeScript-
We had a bit of a thing over the fact that we stopped using TypeScript-
Lex Fridman
Yeah
Yeah
DHH
… for a project, and he didn’t like that and had opinions about that and other actions. And after that I thought like, what a bozo. And, and do you know what? I still think that was a bozo move, and then I can also think like, well, the dude’s really into AI. He’s trying all these models, and we can share some excitement about that, so I just started following him yesterday.
… for a project, and he didn’t like that and had opinions about that and other actions. And after that I thought like, what a bozo. And, and do you know what? I still think that was a bozo move, and then I can also think like, well, the dude’s really into AI. He’s trying all these models, and we can share some excitement about that, so I just started following him yesterday.
Lex Fridman
Awesome.
Awesome.
DHH
I was like, do you know what? I don’t have to agree with you on everything. I don’t even have to like some of the things that you did or said or whatever. I can follow you anyway. So if I can follow back Theo, then I think there’s room for world peace here.
I was like, do you know what? I don’t have to agree with you on everything. I don’t even have to like some of the things that you did or said or whatever. I can follow you anyway. So if I can follow back Theo, then I think there’s room for world peace here.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, he’s actually a really good example. He, he’s really opinionated, changes his mind quite a bit, can get snarky, but I think he’s a good person underneath.
Yeah, he’s actually a really good example. He, he’s really opinionated, changes his mind quite a bit, can get snarky, but I think he’s a good person underneath.
DHH
And either way, I just, you know what? My feed is more interesting when there’s some people talking about things that I care about and yeah, I don’t have to agree with you on everything. I just don’t.
And either way, I just, you know what? My feed is more interesting when there’s some people talking about things that I care about and yeah, I don’t have to agree with you on everything. I just don’t.
Longevity, over-optimization, and fear of death
Lex Fridman
This I found pretty funny, that you mentioned something your wife said that stuck with you, that all this tech-adjacent extreme longevity focus in men is like anorexia in women, a physical manifestation of anxiety and lack of control. That somehow rang true a little bit.
This I found pretty funny, that you mentioned something your wife said that stuck with you, that all this tech-adjacent extreme longevity focus in men is like anorexia in women, a physical manifestation of anxiety and lack of control. That somehow rang true a little bit.
DHH
It certainly did to a lot of people. I think that tweet really popped off, and I don’t know if you noticed, but Bryan Johnson chimed in on the thread, and I could see how Bryan would read that as a bit of a jab. And I do think that Jamie was probably thinking of him amongst other people in that conversation. And it’s also an example of where even though I’m not subscribing to Bryan’s mission of, I think it’s the slogan’s Don’t Die.
It certainly did to a lot of people. I think that tweet really popped off, and I don’t know if you noticed, but Bryan Johnson chimed in on the thread, and I could see how Bryan would read that as a bit of a jab. And I do think that Jamie was probably thinking of him amongst other people in that conversation. And it’s also an example of where even though I’m not subscribing to Bryan’s mission of, I think it’s the slogan’s Don’t Die.
DHH
I actually do wanna die. I don’t wanna do this forever. Like, I think the human lifespan of about 90 to 100 sounds about right. I’m embracing the finitude of life. We don’t have to agree on that. In fact, Bryan is a vastly more interesting human to me because we don’t agree with that, and Bryan’s willingness to literally put his own skin and all sorts of other body elements in the game for that mission is really interesting. Now, I can have that view—this is really interesting, I’m glad Bryan is pursuing this passion of his—and then also find my wife’s analysis to ring true, that it does seem like there is some underlying, I don’t know, fear of…
I actually do wanna die. I don’t wanna do this forever. Like, I think the human lifespan of about 90 to 100 sounds about right. I’m embracing the finitude of life. We don’t have to agree on that. In fact, Bryan is a vastly more interesting human to me because we don’t agree with that, and Bryan’s willingness to literally put his own skin and all sorts of other body elements in the game for that mission is really interesting. Now, I can have that view—this is really interesting, I’m glad Bryan is pursuing this passion of his—and then also find my wife’s analysis to ring true, that it does seem like there is some underlying, I don’t know, fear of…
DHH
I was talking to Jamie yesterday about this, and she was saying or comparing it to this sense of people who didn’t feel like they had lived enough. And one of the reasons perhaps that they hadn’t lived enough was that modern society now is a surveillance state, not by the state actually, but by each other. There are camera phones everywhere. Every indiscretion or even outburst of fun or cringe is highly likely to be recorded and then shared to the point of ridicule. And what is the rational reaction for humans under those conditions is to pull back, is to make sure you don’t dance like nobody’s watching because-
I was talking to Jamie yesterday about this, and she was saying or comparing it to this sense of people who didn’t feel like they had lived enough. And one of the reasons perhaps that they hadn’t lived enough was that modern society now is a surveillance state, not by the state actually, but by each other. There are camera phones everywhere. Every indiscretion or even outburst of fun or cringe is highly likely to be recorded and then shared to the point of ridicule. And what is the rational reaction for humans under those conditions is to pull back, is to make sure you don’t dance like nobody’s watching because-
DHH
… they’re probably filming you to your great and eternal embarrassment on the internet, so maybe you just shouldn’t dance at all. And therefore, if we’ve all retracted to the point that we’re barely living, we’re clinging on to wanting it to last forever. Now-
… they’re probably filming you to your great and eternal embarrassment on the internet, so maybe you just shouldn’t dance at all. And therefore, if we’ve all retracted to the point that we’re barely living, we’re clinging on to wanting it to last forever. Now-
DHH
… I mean, I’m sure that thesis does not apply in all circumstances. I don’t even know if it applies to Bryan or, or anyone else here. But I think there’s something to this: that if you feel like you’ve really lived, you’re okay thinking I’ve lived enough, and that it having an end is not something to be fought. Now, is it also possible that this is all just existential post-rationalization, and if tomorrow there was a live forever pill, we’d all take it? Yeah, that’s possible. Is it also possible that if we did that, society would be worse off? Yes. Is it possible that the human lifespan is the length it is for sociological reasons, not just biological reasons? Yes.
… I mean, I’m sure that thesis does not apply in all circumstances. I don’t even know if it applies to Bryan or, or anyone else here. But I think there’s something to this: that if you feel like you’ve really lived, you’re okay thinking I’ve lived enough, and that it having an end is not something to be fought. Now, is it also possible that this is all just existential post-rationalization, and if tomorrow there was a live forever pill, we’d all take it? Yeah, that’s possible. Is it also possible that if we did that, society would be worse off? Yes. Is it possible that the human lifespan is the length it is for sociological reasons, not just biological reasons? Yes.
DHH
So I think these are just all interesting questions, and I just thought her analysis really got to something here. And that discussion has come up afterwards. I mean, that, I think that tweet is like a year old. But just recently, we’ve been talking about this over-optimizers. I saw Chris Williamson, Modern Wisdom had a bit where he was like, “Yeah, okay, maybe we did go a little overboard.” And the triggering thing was the Diary of a CEO, where the host was saying something to the effect of, “I had a glass of wine and the next three days were ruined.”
So I think these are just all interesting questions, and I just thought her analysis really got to something here. And that discussion has come up afterwards. I mean, that, I think that tweet is like a year old. But just recently, we’ve been talking about this over-optimizers. I saw Chris Williamson, Modern Wisdom had a bit where he was like, “Yeah, okay, maybe we did go a little overboard.” And the triggering thing was the Diary of a CEO, where the host was saying something to the effect of, “I had a glass of wine and the next three days were ruined.”
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
DHH
And that to me, I mean, in his circumstance, I’m sure that’s true. Like, if you have not drank any alcohol for a very long time and you have just a little, I could see how it can have an effect. But also there’s something in that that just triggered a visceral reaction, I think, for a lot of people, and myself included, where I was like, “Fuck, man, I should have a glass of wine just right now, even though I don’t usually drink.” And in fact I think the alcohol question is a good microcosm to zoom in on. So we’ve all stopped drinking apparently, like alcohol sales are way down- … certainly amongst young people. And then on the one hand, on the pure health metrics, whatever, we can go like, “Oh wow, isn’t that great?”
And that to me, I mean, in his circumstance, I’m sure that’s true. Like, if you have not drank any alcohol for a very long time and you have just a little, I could see how it can have an effect. But also there’s something in that that just triggered a visceral reaction, I think, for a lot of people, and myself included, where I was like, “Fuck, man, I should have a glass of wine just right now, even though I don’t usually drink.” And in fact I think the alcohol question is a good microcosm to zoom in on. So we’ve all stopped drinking apparently, like alcohol sales are way down- … certainly amongst young people. And then on the one hand, on the pure health metrics, whatever, we can go like, “Oh wow, isn’t that great?”
DHH
And then I go like, “Yeah, I’m not so sure it is.” Like the social lubricant that alcohol can provide may be missed, is missed. I mean, we are in an absolute epidemic of loneliness and misery and depression and whatever, and a fair amount of it just probably comes because you’re not interacting enough with other people. Now, that’s before we even talk about coupling, right? Like way down, people having a very hard time meeting a spouse. And-
And then I go like, “Yeah, I’m not so sure it is.” Like the social lubricant that alcohol can provide may be missed, is missed. I mean, we are in an absolute epidemic of loneliness and misery and depression and whatever, and a fair amount of it just probably comes because you’re not interacting enough with other people. Now, that’s before we even talk about coupling, right? Like way down, people having a very hard time meeting a spouse. And-
DHH
… a lot of that has moved over to apps that have all sorts of negative outcomes and consequences, right? Like maybe we will look back, or maybe we already are looking back and thinking like, “Eh, do you know what? Maybe getting wasted every once in a while was not the worst thing in the world.” And whether wasted or not, maybe just having a couple of drinks every Friday or Saturday when you’re out and about was part of what helped society get to where it is. Maybe the fact that humans have literally been drinking for whatever it is, like 13,000 years fermenting things, had a social purpose, and we pull out Chesterton’s fence of our own chagrin, right?
… a lot of that has moved over to apps that have all sorts of negative outcomes and consequences, right? Like maybe we will look back, or maybe we already are looking back and thinking like, “Eh, do you know what? Maybe getting wasted every once in a while was not the worst thing in the world.” And whether wasted or not, maybe just having a couple of drinks every Friday or Saturday when you’re out and about was part of what helped society get to where it is. Maybe the fact that humans have literally been drinking for whatever it is, like 13,000 years fermenting things, had a social purpose, and we pull out Chesterton’s fence of our own chagrin, right?
Lex Fridman
As you mentioned, in the spirit of that, so when I traveled across rural China, I did smoke a little bit in, in my early 20s, but I picked up just for that trip-
As you mentioned, in the spirit of that, so when I traveled across rural China, I did smoke a little bit in, in my early 20s, but I picked up just for that trip-
DHH
A social connector, right?
A social connector, right?
Lex Fridman
And I drank humongous amounts, even though I don’t really drink these days, because of the social thing. It’s the way they show love. And I also ate shitload of carbs, which- … I’m usually low carb. I just like meat. So just because it’s the way they show love. And actually even, it’s in that society cigarettes, but in most societies, liquor is a thing to do together. And it’s a bond. The benefits that that entails can, in many situations, outweigh the negative consequences like long-term for whatever, however you measure them.
And I drank humongous amounts, even though I don’t really drink these days, because of the social thing. It’s the way they show love. And I also ate shitload of carbs, which- … I’m usually low carb. I just like meat. So just because it’s the way they show love. And actually even, it’s in that society cigarettes, but in most societies, liquor is a thing to do together. And it’s a bond. The benefits that that entails can, in many situations, outweigh the negative consequences like long-term for whatever, however you measure them.
DHH
And this is the myopia of modernity, that we reduce things down to like, well, one glass on this long run study meant that you had a 0.1% greater risk of some heart defect. Yes, but if you didn’t live at all, what’s the point? And again, it’s also easy to flip over the other side. Like the only way to live is to get drunk every weekend and eat a bunch of crap and smoke 40 cigarettes a day. No, it’s not. Like it doesn’t have to be the either/or. This is one of the reasons I stopped wearing my Oura Ring. So I wore the Oura sleep ring for many years, four years. And one day I was just like, “I don’t need to know that I had-” … “a bad night of sleep.” Like I know. This added, I don’t wanna call it an anxiety, I don’t have a lot of anxiety, but this added just like reminder-
And this is the myopia of modernity, that we reduce things down to like, well, one glass on this long run study meant that you had a 0.1% greater risk of some heart defect. Yes, but if you didn’t live at all, what’s the point? And again, it’s also easy to flip over the other side. Like the only way to live is to get drunk every weekend and eat a bunch of crap and smoke 40 cigarettes a day. No, it’s not. Like it doesn’t have to be the either/or. This is one of the reasons I stopped wearing my Oura Ring. So I wore the Oura sleep ring for many years, four years. And one day I was just like, “I don’t need to know that I had-” … “a bad night of sleep.” Like I know. This added, I don’t wanna call it an anxiety, I don’t have a lot of anxiety, but this added just like reminder-
DHH
… that I had a bad night of sleep, what purpose is it actually playing here? Why do I need to have all these stats? Why do I need to optimize everything? To the point where, again, after that single anecdote, you know, from Diary of a CEO, I was like, “Fuck, I kind of want the opposite.” Like- I don’t barely drink at all. I, a glass of wine once a month maybe. Like, do you know what? I should start just on the weekends, get a glass. Maybe two.
… that I had a bad night of sleep, what purpose is it actually playing here? Why do I need to have all these stats? Why do I need to optimize everything? To the point where, again, after that single anecdote, you know, from Diary of a CEO, I was like, “Fuck, I kind of want the opposite.” Like- I don’t barely drink at all. I, a glass of wine once a month maybe. Like, do you know what? I should start just on the weekends, get a glass. Maybe two.
DHH
And also, I mean, I’ve never been the person to fret about my diet. This is one of the great privileges of being married to—and I’ll do a quick aside here. Don’t ever call a woman in her 40s a wonderful woman. My wife was so pissed… that not only last year did I come on her birthday, that was bad enough, but that I called her a wonderful woman on the show, because that sounded like her name was Nancy and she was 65— … in the suburb of Rochester. So I’m like, I was trying to play the 50. Like, no, I don’t know, I’m Danish. How, how would I know? But that didn’t go over well. So I’m gonna say awesome woman instead.
And also, I mean, I’ve never been the person to fret about my diet. This is one of the great privileges of being married to—and I’ll do a quick aside here. Don’t ever call a woman in her 40s a wonderful woman. My wife was so pissed… that not only last year did I come on her birthday, that was bad enough, but that I called her a wonderful woman on the show, because that sounded like her name was Nancy and she was 65— … in the suburb of Rochester. So I’m like, I was trying to play the 50. Like, no, I don’t know, I’m Danish. How, how would I know? But that didn’t go over well. So I’m gonna say awesome woman instead.
DHH
If you marry an awesome woman who also not only knows how to cook, but enjoys it do you know what? There’s a very traditional division of labor here that has been quite stable through several … tens of thousands of years in human societies, that perhaps also wasn’t the worst idea in the world. And I also know there are plenty of men who like to cook, and there are women who don’t. But as stereotypes go, eh, that certainly helped me. Like, I don’t think I would’ve been able to just be as relaxed about food if I didn’t eat relatively healthy on a regular basis. But the overall point being just getting out of that optimization game without turning into the opposite. You don’t have to be a fat slob on the couch either. You can move around.
If you marry an awesome woman who also not only knows how to cook, but enjoys it do you know what? There’s a very traditional division of labor here that has been quite stable through several … tens of thousands of years in human societies, that perhaps also wasn’t the worst idea in the world. And I also know there are plenty of men who like to cook, and there are women who don’t. But as stereotypes go, eh, that certainly helped me. Like, I don’t think I would’ve been able to just be as relaxed about food if I didn’t eat relatively healthy on a regular basis. But the overall point being just getting out of that optimization game without turning into the opposite. You don’t have to be a fat slob on the couch either. You can move around.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And then the bigger point we’re talking about is the finiteness of life.
Yeah. And then the bigger point we’re talking about is the finiteness of life.
DHH
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And I agree with you on this.
And I agree with you on this.
DHH
This was actually a feature, I built it into Omarchy. So memento mori. Remember death. If you pull down the calendar in Amaci, you open it by clicking the clock. It opens up, and the first funny thing, I took it off the internet. There’s this account called Years Progress, and it, every day it updates, and it just shows 63% done with 2026. I don’t know if you’ve seen that one. So it just fills up. So I built that into the calendar. So right now it says, “We’re 63% done with 2026.” But then if you double-click that, it’ll ask you, “When were you born? How long do you expect to live?” And the default is 90. So I put in 1979. And then right below the line of, like, how long are we done with the year-
This was actually a feature, I built it into Omarchy. So memento mori. Remember death. If you pull down the calendar in Amaci, you open it by clicking the clock. It opens up, and the first funny thing, I took it off the internet. There’s this account called Years Progress, and it, every day it updates, and it just shows 63% done with 2026. I don’t know if you’ve seen that one. So it just fills up. So I built that into the calendar. So right now it says, “We’re 63% done with 2026.” But then if you double-click that, it’ll ask you, “When were you born? How long do you expect to live?” And the default is 90. So I put in 1979. And then right below the line of, like, how long are we done with the year-
Lex Fridman
Oh, that’s beautiful.
Oh, that’s beautiful.
DHH
… is a new line that shows how long are you done with your life. I think I’m at 62%. I’m like, if you hover over it, it says, “Memento mori.”
… is a new line that shows how long are you done with your life. I think I’m at 62%. I’m like, if you hover over it, it says, “Memento mori.”
Lex Fridman
That’s beautiful.
That’s beautiful.
DHH
Fair number of people found it morbid, but this was why it is an Easter egg. It’s not, like, exposed. You gotta click a few things to get there. I like the reminder. I like the reminder that time is finite, and I should make the most of it. And this is also one of the privileges of having children. You really realize that the cliches are all true. Oh my God, it goes so fast. And I remember my now 13-year-old being one, being two. I was like, “This was just yesterday.” And the reason it’s a cliche is because it’s a shared experience. Cliches are good. They remind you that you are part of the human experience, and others have been here before you.
Fair number of people found it morbid, but this was why it is an Easter egg. It’s not, like, exposed. You gotta click a few things to get there. I like the reminder. I like the reminder that time is finite, and I should make the most of it. And this is also one of the privileges of having children. You really realize that the cliches are all true. Oh my God, it goes so fast. And I remember my now 13-year-old being one, being two. I was like, “This was just yesterday.” And the reason it’s a cliche is because it’s a shared experience. Cliches are good. They remind you that you are part of the human experience, and others have been here before you.
Eternal recurrence and future of human civization
Lex Fridman
I have to ask, you mentioned the amazing woman and great cook.
I have to ask, you mentioned the amazing woman and great cook.
DHH
Amazing.
Amazing.
Lex Fridman
Amazing.
Amazing.
DHH
Very important to remember. Not wonderful, amazing.
Very important to remember. Not wonderful, amazing.
Lex Fridman
Amazing. So there’s this… You talked some shit about croissants or something. I saw this in a tweet. So is the Danish croissant somehow better?
Amazing. So there’s this… You talked some shit about croissants or something. I saw this in a tweet. So is the Danish croissant somehow better?
DHH
Actually, Danish croissants are not particularly good. In my opinion, the only place you can find a half-decent croissant, of all places, is 7-Eleven, which is hilarious to me because 7-Eleven in the US is the place where, at least in Chicago, you’d go to get a slushie and try to avoid getting murdered. But in Denmark, 7-Eleven is this very upscale, super nice convenience store, and they just happen to make decent croissants. And it always baffled me that I lived in the United States for 20 freaking years. I have yet to have a single croissant that’s even at the level of a 7-Eleven croissant in Copenhagen. That seems improbable.
Actually, Danish croissants are not particularly good. In my opinion, the only place you can find a half-decent croissant, of all places, is 7-Eleven, which is hilarious to me because 7-Eleven in the US is the place where, at least in Chicago, you’d go to get a slushie and try to avoid getting murdered. But in Denmark, 7-Eleven is this very upscale, super nice convenience store, and they just happen to make decent croissants. And it always baffled me that I lived in the United States for 20 freaking years. I have yet to have a single croissant that’s even at the level of a 7-Eleven croissant in Copenhagen. That seems improbable.
Lex Fridman
Have you understood why?
Have you understood why?
DHH
No, I’ve legitimately considered hiring an investigative journalist to get to the bottom of this, because the number of theories I’ve heard have been all over the place. It’s the water. It’s the butter. It’s the skill. It’s the this, it’s the that, it’s the other thing. I’m like, none of it adds up to me. If it’s the butter, can’t you just import it? I thought I saw Danish butter in some supermarkets over here at the Lurpak. So that can’t be it. Can it be the skill? No, it can’t be the skill. There are plenty of French people and Belgian people, the best croissant makers in the world, who live in the US. Like, what is the reason? And then I get the second thing, which is- … “No, no, you just haven’t gone to the right place.” I’ve literally gone to 15 of quote unquote-
No, I’ve legitimately considered hiring an investigative journalist to get to the bottom of this, because the number of theories I’ve heard have been all over the place. It’s the water. It’s the butter. It’s the skill. It’s the this, it’s the that, it’s the other thing. I’m like, none of it adds up to me. If it’s the butter, can’t you just import it? I thought I saw Danish butter in some supermarkets over here at the Lurpak. So that can’t be it. Can it be the skill? No, it can’t be the skill. There are plenty of French people and Belgian people, the best croissant makers in the world, who live in the US. Like, what is the reason? And then I get the second thing, which is- … “No, no, you just haven’t gone to the right place.” I’ve literally gone to 15 of quote unquote-
DHH
… “the right place,” and all the croissants were shit. So before I leave the planet, I have to get to the bottom of why the United States cannot make a proper croissant. And I don’t, I’m not even asking about peak French croissants, peak Belgian croissants- … which are the best croissants in the world. I’m just asking about the 7-Eleven croissant from Copenhagen. Is that too much to ask for?
… “the right place,” and all the croissants were shit. So before I leave the planet, I have to get to the bottom of why the United States cannot make a proper croissant. And I don’t, I’m not even asking about peak French croissants, peak Belgian croissants- … which are the best croissants in the world. I’m just asking about the 7-Eleven croissant from Copenhagen. Is that too much to ask for?
Lex Fridman
That’s a fascinating mystery. What, zooming out, what’s your favorite… This makes me wanna know, what’s your favorite meal? Like, if you, if I gave you a last meal and were to murder you after.
That’s a fascinating mystery. What, zooming out, what’s your favorite… This makes me wanna know, what’s your favorite meal? Like, if you, if I gave you a last meal and were to murder you after.
DHH
It all depends whether it’s lunch or it’s dinner. If it’s lunch-
It all depends whether it’s lunch or it’s dinner. If it’s lunch-
Lex Fridman
It’s one meal. What’s… I feel like if you’re getting murdered, it doesn’t really matter if it’s lunch or dinner.
It’s one meal. What’s… I feel like if you’re getting murdered, it doesn’t really matter if it’s lunch or dinner.
DHH
Well, it depends on what time of day you’re getting murdered.
Well, it depends on what time of day you’re getting murdered.
Lex Fridman
Oh, I see.
Oh, I see.
DHH
If it’s an afternoon execution, I only get lunch.
If it’s an afternoon execution, I only get lunch.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
DHH
And if I get lunch, it’s at Louisiana, the museum north of Copenhagen. I was just there with Jamie two days ago, and we go there all the time. The museum is lovely. We don’t go for the museum. We go for the cafeteria. That in itself sounds crazy. Like-
And if I get lunch, it’s at Louisiana, the museum north of Copenhagen. I was just there with Jamie two days ago, and we go there all the time. The museum is lovely. We don’t go for the museum. We go for the cafeteria. That in itself sounds crazy. Like-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it does.
Yeah, it does.
DHH
… you’re gonna, you’re gonna drive half an hour to go to a cafeteria. Well, it just so happens to be, it is the best lunch I’ve probably ever had in my life. The chef there is just unbelievably good, and not only is the food amazing, what’s even more amazing to my systems-thinking brain is that at any one time when we were up there, I think there were probably 200 people waiting for their food.
… you’re gonna, you’re gonna drive half an hour to go to a cafeteria. Well, it just so happens to be, it is the best lunch I’ve probably ever had in my life. The chef there is just unbelievably good, and not only is the food amazing, what’s even more amazing to my systems-thinking brain is that at any one time when we were up there, I think there were probably 200 people waiting for their food.
Lex Fridman
Oh, shit.
Oh, shit.
DHH
And our food was delivered in five minutes. They have a small menu, and clearly they make it in bulk, and it’s unbelievably delicious.
And our food was delivered in five minutes. They have a small menu, and clearly they make it in bulk, and it’s unbelievably delicious.
Lex Fridman
Just a cafeteria at a museum?
Just a cafeteria at a museum?
DHH
It’s a cafeteria at a museum that happens to have the best lunch I’ve ever had anywhere in my life.
It’s a cafeteria at a museum that happens to have the best lunch I’ve ever had anywhere in my life.
Lex Fridman
What ki- what kind of food are we talking about? What’s, what kind of lunch food?
What ki- what kind of food are we talking about? What’s, what kind of lunch food?
DHH
It’s, like, Nordic cuisine, so it’s, it’s… A funny thing is the menu, when I looked at it, I was like, “Do you know what? If I saw this menu…” As a kid, I’d go like, “I’m not eating here.”
It’s, like, Nordic cuisine, so it’s, it’s… A funny thing is the menu, when I looked at it, I was like, “Do you know what? If I saw this menu…” As a kid, I’d go like, “I’m not eating here.”
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
DHH
It’s like, I don’t know-
It’s like, I don’t know-
Lex Fridman
This is pretty fancy.
This is pretty fancy.
DHH
… root free fruit and- … and onions- … and all sorts of healthy stuff. That sounds disgusting. And then you sit down and eat it, and the angels sing. But it’s even more particular than that. It’s the butter. The whipped butter that they have there, the best butter anywhere in the world.
… root free fruit and- … and onions- … and all sorts of healthy stuff. That sounds disgusting. And then you sit down and eat it, and the angels sing. But it’s even more particular than that. It’s the butter. The whipped butter that they have there, the best butter anywhere in the world.
Lex Fridman
I think that has to be connected to the croissant mystery too.
I think that has to be connected to the croissant mystery too.
DHH
There, there must be some connection. But literally- … even in Paris, I’ve never had whipped butter that tastes as delicious as the butter does at Louisiana in Copenhagen. Literally, I would drive 30 minutes- … to have bread and butter at the cafeteria in Louisiana.
There, there must be some connection. But literally- … even in Paris, I’ve never had whipped butter that tastes as delicious as the butter does at Louisiana in Copenhagen. Literally, I would drive 30 minutes- … to have bread and butter at the cafeteria in Louisiana.
Lex Fridman
Well, how’d you discover that? Just one day you went to the museum and-
Well, how’d you discover that? Just one day you went to the museum and-
DHH
I think we just went to the museum-
I think we just went to the museum-
Lex Fridman
And you tried a whole dish?
And you tried a whole dish?
DHH
… and we had the lunch, and we were like…
… and we had the lunch, and we were like…
Lex Fridman
This is weird.
This is weird.
DHH
This is rivaling the best tasting restaurants- … I’ve ever been to in my life, and I’ve gone to Noma a couple of times and tried what there is to try, and this is right up there.
This is rivaling the best tasting restaurants- … I’ve ever been to in my life, and I’ve gone to Noma a couple of times and tried what there is to try, and this is right up there.
Lex Fridman
All right. What about dinner, since you mentioned? Is it something different that you have to think-
All right. What about dinner, since you mentioned? Is it something different that you have to think-
DHH
Well, I think there’s a lot of good options in Copenhagen, but actually I’ll pick a place in Spain. So there is this place in Marbella called Puente Romano. It’s a hotel, and down by the beach, they have this beach restaurant with fresh seafood. Unbelievably delicious. I’m trying to remember what it’s called, but yeah, if you look it up, the beach seafood place at Puente Romano is incredible.
Well, I think there’s a lot of good options in Copenhagen, but actually I’ll pick a place in Spain. So there is this place in Marbella called Puente Romano. It’s a hotel, and down by the beach, they have this beach restaurant with fresh seafood. Unbelievably delicious. I’m trying to remember what it’s called, but yeah, if you look it up, the beach seafood place at Puente Romano is incredible.
Lex Fridman
How much of great food is, like, the place and the person you’re with, right? Or the experience when you first are there?
How much of great food is, like, the place and the person you’re with, right? Or the experience when you first are there?
DHH
I mean, the ambiance certainly helps, but I think my taste buds are also just-
I mean, the ambiance certainly helps, but I think my taste buds are also just-
Lex Fridman
Okay, that-
Okay, that-
DHH
… in tune for-
… in tune for-
Lex Fridman
So it’s legit,
So it’s legit,
DHH
… flavors
… flavors
Lex Fridman
… it is just good food.
… it is just good food.
DHH
It’s just really good food. Because for ex- that cafeteria, there’s a lot of people. Like I wouldn’t rate it as like, oh my God, this is just a place I want to sit for two hours. But the food is so delicious.
It’s just really good food. Because for ex- that cafeteria, there’s a lot of people. Like I wouldn’t rate it as like, oh my God, this is just a place I want to sit for two hours. But the food is so delicious.
Lex Fridman
That’s one of the things I’m, in traveling across the country, I’m realizing to sample without bias, just try things. ‘Cause you I guess you might just be surprised. Maybe I’ll find your croissant. All right, we’ve talked about mortality. We talked about food.
That’s one of the things I’m, in traveling across the country, I’m realizing to sample without bias, just try things. ‘Cause you I guess you might just be surprised. Maybe I’ll find your croissant. All right, we’ve talked about mortality. We talked about food.
DHH
Settled end of life.
Settled end of life.
Lex Fridman
A thousand years from now, what do you think is the future of humans, human civilization? You think we’re gonna make it?
A thousand years from now, what do you think is the future of humans, human civilization? You think we’re gonna make it?
DHH
A thousand years from now?
A thousand years from now?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
DHH
Man, I’m having trouble predicting 12 months from now.
Man, I’m having trouble predicting 12 months from now.
Lex Fridman
I know.
I know.
DHH
A thousand?
A thousand?
Lex Fridman
You think we got a shot?
You think we got a shot?
DHH
Oh, I’m gonna bet on optimism. I’m gonna bet on a multi-planetary species. I’m gonna bet that Elon gets that rocket to Mars, and we figure out how to bend space-time and discover some wormholes or, or something.
Oh, I’m gonna bet on optimism. I’m gonna bet on a multi-planetary species. I’m gonna bet that Elon gets that rocket to Mars, and we figure out how to bend space-time and discover some wormholes or, or something.
Lex Fridman
Once we do, do you think, you think all humans on Earth will die once or twice and be repopulated after we get a good backup going?
Once we do, do you think, you think all humans on Earth will die once or twice and be repopulated after we get a good backup going?
DHH
I mean, that was actually one of my favorite episodes of Black Mirror, the one where they get uploaded to the 1980s sea town somewhere. And I just thought like, wow, this is both such a dark moment, yet also so beautiful in the shared recognition that, like, the ’80s were actually kind of amazing. Like, I don’t have a lot of nostalgia for many moments, but I do have nostalgia for the ’80s.
I mean, that was actually one of my favorite episodes of Black Mirror, the one where they get uploaded to the 1980s sea town somewhere. And I just thought like, wow, this is both such a dark moment, yet also so beautiful in the shared recognition that, like, the ’80s were actually kind of amazing. Like, I don’t have a lot of nostalgia for many moments, but I do have nostalgia for the ’80s.
Lex Fridman
But-
But-
DHH
And they say something about, like, whatever place and time you were in, the music you were listening to when you were 12 or- … or 14, 15, something like that, that’s what’s gonna stick with you. Like, no, I was only, I got to be 10 in the ’80s. So this was my early childhood, and I still have an unbelievably fond affiliation with the ’80s. So if I’m gonna be uploaded to the sky-
And they say something about, like, whatever place and time you were in, the music you were listening to when you were 12 or- … or 14, 15, something like that, that’s what’s gonna stick with you. Like, no, I was only, I got to be 10 in the ’80s. So this was my early childhood, and I still have an unbelievably fond affiliation with the ’80s. So if I’m gonna be uploaded to the sky-
Lex Fridman
You want it to be the ’80s.
You want it to be the ’80s.
DHH
… I’m doing the ’80s.
… I’m doing the ’80s.
Lex Fridman
Wow. I don’t think I’ve actually ever heard anyone say that. Usually it’s ’70s or ’90s.
Wow. I don’t think I’ve actually ever heard anyone say that. Usually it’s ’70s or ’90s.
DHH
Oh, and the-
Oh, and the-
Lex Fridman
Because the ’80s is a-
Because the ’80s is a-
DHH
I really don’t like the ’90s. Can we talk about this?
I really don’t like the ’90s. Can we talk about this?
Lex Fridman
No, I’m done. Not done.
No, I’m done. Not done.
DHH
To me, this was the great turning point of nihilism. That both the music, the genre, the fashion- … everything turned from, like, this glamour, the pop, the optimism, even the yuppies and everything- … to grunge and Nirvana. And even though, I mean, I like the music, I don’t like the ethics. I don’t like- … the morals. I don’t like any of the underpinnings to it. There was just such a defeatism to it- … that in retrospect, I look back upon it, if I’m gonna get reinserted into the matrix, it’s gonna be the ’80s.
To me, this was the great turning point of nihilism. That both the music, the genre, the fashion- … everything turned from, like, this glamour, the pop, the optimism, even the yuppies and everything- … to grunge and Nirvana. And even though, I mean, I like the music, I don’t like the ethics. I don’t like- … the morals. I don’t like any of the underpinnings to it. There was just such a defeatism to it- … that in retrospect, I look back upon it, if I’m gonna get reinserted into the matrix, it’s gonna be the ’80s.
Lex Fridman
That was full of optimism and fun- … and colors.
That was full of optimism and fun- … and colors.
DHH
Yes. I remember having these orange pants- … with, like, white dots on them. That was just a normal thing kids could wear in the ’80s. I’ve never fucking seen that today. Or I mean, even in the ’90s, it all turned just, like, Seattle gray. Great regression.
Yes. I remember having these orange pants- … with, like, white dots on them. That was just a normal thing kids could wear in the ’80s. I’ve never fucking seen that today. Or I mean, even in the ’90s, it all turned just, like, Seattle gray. Great regression.
Lex Fridman
So the Nietzschean, you know, this idea of eternal recurrence. If you do a Groundhog Day and you live forever, you want it to be in the orange pants with the white dots in the ’80s.
So the Nietzschean, you know, this idea of eternal recurrence. If you do a Groundhog Day and you live forever, you want it to be in the orange pants with the white dots in the ’80s.
DHH
Maybe I’m gonna skip the orange pants, but- … I’m definitely picking the ’80s.
Maybe I’m gonna skip the orange pants, but- … I’m definitely picking the ’80s.
Lex Fridman
You said it. All right, DHH. Thank you so much for everything you do. Thank you for being an inspiration to all of us, for building cool shit in the world, and thank you for talking today.
You said it. All right, DHH. Thank you so much for everything you do. Thank you for being an inspiration to all of us, for building cool shit in the world, and thank you for talking today.
DHH
Anytime. Thank you, Lex, again for having me.
Anytime. Thank you, Lex, again for having me.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Thanks for listening to this conversation with DHH. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, let me leave you with some words from Ralph Waldo Emerson. “Once you make a decision, the universe conspires to make it happen.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Yeah. Thanks for listening to this conversation with DHH. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, let me leave you with some words from Ralph Waldo Emerson. “Once you make a decision, the universe conspires to make it happen.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Khabib Nurmagomedov: Dagestan, Fighting, Islam, Conor, Gaethje & Football | Lex Fridman Podcast #500
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #500 with Khabib Nurmagomedov.
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links
that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is
human generated, and may have errors.
Here are some useful links:
The timestamps in the transcript are clickable links
that take you directly to that point in
the main video. Please note that the transcript is
human generated, and may have errors.
Here are some useful links:
- Go back to this episode’s main page
- Watch the full YouTube version of the podcast
Table of Contents
Here are the loose “chapters” in the conversation.
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Introduction
- 1:35 – Why Dagestan produces so many great fighters
- 11:41 – History of Dagestan warrior culture
- 21:02 – Hard training in the mountains of Dagestan
- 24:53 – The trap of fame, money, and power
- 35:34 – The key to Khabib’s dominance
- 46:47 – Discipline and hard work
- 59:15 – Street fights in Dagestan
- 1:12:56 – Khabib’s top pressure
- 1:18:40 – Khabib vs Conor McGregor
- 1:31:25 – Khabib’s toughest fight
- 1:39:12 – Greatest MMA fighters of all time
- 1:56:57 – Coaching
- 2:02:30 – Daniel Cormier
- 2:06:48 – Islam Makhachev
- 2:16:46 – Dana White
- 2:20:16 – Joe Rogan
- 2:22:31 – Ali Abdelaziz
- 2:25:08 – Football
- 2:32:23 – Messi vs Ronaldo
- 2:50:23 – Dubai
- 2:54:14 – God
- 3:01:57 – Advice for young people
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Khabib Nurmagomedov, one of the greatest fighters of all time, who retired from the UFC undefeated with a perfect twenty-nine and O record. It was a huge honor for me to meet him, to train together, and to have this deep conversation. We had this conversation entirely in Russian. This was my first time doing so on this podcast. And even these words I’m saying right now are spoken in Russian. So if you’re hearing me in English, you’re actually listening to the English dub. On YouTube, you can switch between language audio tracks by clicking the settings gear icon, then clicking audio track, and then selecting the language you prefer. For the original Russian version, select Russian. And for the English dub, select English.
The following is a conversation with Khabib Nurmagomedov, one of the greatest fighters of all time, who retired from the UFC undefeated with a perfect twenty-nine and O record. It was a huge honor for me to meet him, to train together, and to have this deep conversation. We had this conversation entirely in Russian. This was my first time doing so on this podcast. And even these words I’m saying right now are spoken in Russian. So if you’re hearing me in English, you’re actually listening to the English dub. On YouTube, you can switch between language audio tracks by clicking the settings gear icon, then clicking audio track, and then selecting the language you prefer. For the original Russian version, select Russian. And for the English dub, select English.
Lex Fridman
Subtitles are also available in both languages. The translation and dubbing are a collaborative effort of translators, real human beings, including myself and AI. Thanks to the incredible team at ElevenLabs for their help. And now, please allow me to take this moment to say thank you from the bottom of my heart for your love and support all these years. I love you all. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. And now, dear friends, here’s Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Subtitles are also available in both languages. The translation and dubbing are a collaborative effort of translators, real human beings, including myself and AI. Thanks to the incredible team at ElevenLabs for their help. And now, please allow me to take this moment to say thank you from the bottom of my heart for your love and support all these years. I love you all. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. And now, dear friends, here’s Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Why Dagestan produces so many great fighters
Lex Fridman
Let’s try in Russian if we can, like you suggested.
Let’s try in Russian if we can, like you suggested.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I can help you out if you need.
I can help you out if you need.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, thanks, brother. I kind of feel it in my heart and soul, but sometimes I can’t find the right words.
Yeah, thanks, brother. I kind of feel it in my heart and soul, but sometimes I can’t find the right words.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I know, brother. We got this.
I know, brother. We got this.
Lex Fridman
Great. Let’s start from the beginning. So that gym back in Dagestan where you trained is legendary for its spartan conditions. There was just one shower for seventy people, only cold water. And yet, this humble little gym managed to raise more than twenty world champions, including several UFC champions. Can you try to explain or maybe reflect on what factors in that gym, those training sessions, that life in Dagestan created so many champions?
Great. Let’s start from the beginning. So that gym back in Dagestan where you trained is legendary for its spartan conditions. There was just one shower for seventy people, only cold water. And yet, this humble little gym managed to raise more than twenty world champions, including several UFC champions. Can you try to explain or maybe reflect on what factors in that gym, those training sessions, that life in Dagestan created so many champions?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Sure. So we’re talking about the gym, the one located in Makhachkala. And Makhachkala, for the people who don’t know, it’s the capital of Dagestan. This was back around the years from two thousand to two thousand and ten, and even later on. In twenty nineteen, we opened up a big gym, a major facility that is still functioning to this day. But before twenty nineteen, we all actually trained in that gym where there was practically nothing. It was just a school gym with nothing but mats, a single punching bag, one climbing rope, and a kind of indoor basketball court. And if we go even further back, before two thousand, before we moved to Makhachkala, we lived in a village. In the village, we had a gym right inside our house.
Sure. So we’re talking about the gym, the one located in Makhachkala. And Makhachkala, for the people who don’t know, it’s the capital of Dagestan. This was back around the years from two thousand to two thousand and ten, and even later on. In twenty nineteen, we opened up a big gym, a major facility that is still functioning to this day. But before twenty nineteen, we all actually trained in that gym where there was practically nothing. It was just a school gym with nothing but mats, a single punching bag, one climbing rope, and a kind of indoor basketball court. And if we go even further back, before two thousand, before we moved to Makhachkala, we lived in a village. In the village, we had a gym right inside our house.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
My father, he built a gym at home, and he was training all the local village kids right there. And there were times back when I was a child, let’s say when I was maybe six or seven years old, I would occasionally wake up to the sound of people training, doing their drills right there in the gym. You know, like with judo or freestyle when they’re drilling, one guy throwing another. Those are my first conscious memories. I was maybe five, six, seven years old at that time. So my father set up this gym in the village and trained local kids, including me, my older brother, and all our close and distant relatives, anyone who wanted to come. A lot of kids came to him.
My father, he built a gym at home, and he was training all the local village kids right there. And there were times back when I was a child, let’s say when I was maybe six or seven years old, I would occasionally wake up to the sound of people training, doing their drills right there in the gym. You know, like with judo or freestyle when they’re drilling, one guy throwing another. Those are my first conscious memories. I was maybe five, six, seven years old at that time. So my father set up this gym in the village and trained local kids, including me, my older brother, and all our close and distant relatives, anyone who wanted to come. A lot of kids came to him.
Lex Fridman
So you would wake up and there are these sounds.
So you would wake up and there are these sounds.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah. You hear the hitting, the throwing over and over. And my father’s voice, how he’s shouting, giving instructions, pushing someone, coaching, teaching. I lived with those sounds. But that was in the village. And later when we moved to Makhachkala, well, you couldn’t say the gym there was wow either. There were only mats. And of course, the most valuable thing an athlete can have, a coach, my father. So he trained us there. And to be honest, until I, let’s say, until I became a champion and had big success, we never had a good big gym where we could, you know, all take a shower together at the same time after training. We always had just one shower for everyone, no proper amenities.
Yeah. You hear the hitting, the throwing over and over. And my father’s voice, how he’s shouting, giving instructions, pushing someone, coaching, teaching. I lived with those sounds. But that was in the village. And later when we moved to Makhachkala, well, you couldn’t say the gym there was wow either. There were only mats. And of course, the most valuable thing an athlete can have, a coach, my father. So he trained us there. And to be honest, until I, let’s say, until I became a champion and had big success, we never had a good big gym where we could, you know, all take a shower together at the same time after training. We always had just one shower for everyone, no proper amenities.
Lex Fridman
So your life story began in the mountains of Dagestan in Sildi, then Kirovaul, and then Makhachkala. And in all these situations, there are very interesting stories. But one of the things I heard you say is that the best results are born out of the worst conditions. What can you say about that? Philosophically, is it correct to say that comfort is kind of the enemy for champions?
So your life story began in the mountains of Dagestan in Sildi, then Kirovaul, and then Makhachkala. And in all these situations, there are very interesting stories. But one of the things I heard you say is that the best results are born out of the worst conditions. What can you say about that? Philosophically, is it correct to say that comfort is kind of the enemy for champions?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It depends on the sport. For example, let’s say in football, you have to have conditions. You can’t really play if there is practically no field. Of course, you can play in the dirt, and it happens sometimes. You can start there. But when you are ten or twelve years old, you already have to be at a certain level. You must have conditions. But if we look at our sport, then what is the most important thing? The coach. You also need sparring partners who will push you in the gym, as they say, right? And you need the mats. Our sport is not expensive. You just buy your wrestling shoes, singlets, shorts, a T-shirt. And if there’s a mat, you wrestle, you become a champion, you fight. But when you live too well, let’s say, you know, you’re never in need…
It depends on the sport. For example, let’s say in football, you have to have conditions. You can’t really play if there is practically no field. Of course, you can play in the dirt, and it happens sometimes. You can start there. But when you are ten or twelve years old, you already have to be at a certain level. You must have conditions. But if we look at our sport, then what is the most important thing? The coach. You also need sparring partners who will push you in the gym, as they say, right? And you need the mats. Our sport is not expensive. You just buy your wrestling shoes, singlets, shorts, a T-shirt. And if there’s a mat, you wrestle, you become a champion, you fight. But when you live too well, let’s say, you know, you’re never in need…
Khabib Nurmagomedov
For example, you were born into a wealthy family and you already have everything. Would that same wealthy father, would he force you to do such a brutal sport? A sport where you come home every day with injuries, where you come home with an exhausted body, you come home with bruises. Would he really do that? That’s the question. And the kid himself, who lives a life of luxury, would he even want to do this? When we look at it statistically, the answer is no. This is where you need that hunger. You have to be in a position where you are truly in need.
For example, you were born into a wealthy family and you already have everything. Would that same wealthy father, would he force you to do such a brutal sport? A sport where you come home every day with injuries, where you come home with an exhausted body, you come home with bruises. Would he really do that? That’s the question. And the kid himself, who lives a life of luxury, would he even want to do this? When we look at it statistically, the answer is no. This is where you need that hunger. You have to be in a position where you are truly in need.
Lex Fridman
And it’s interesting that there’s a psychological side to this as well, that you need a tough situation to create champions. But what’s really interesting is how Dagestan has produced so many wrestling champions. You mentioned football. Let’s look at other countries. Why has Brazil produced so many great football players? Why does Argentina have so many football players? Of course, you have Germany, France, and all that.
And it’s interesting that there’s a psychological side to this as well, that you need a tough situation to create champions. But what’s really interesting is how Dagestan has produced so many wrestling champions. You mentioned football. Let’s look at other countries. Why has Brazil produced so many great football players? Why does Argentina have so many football players? Of course, you have Germany, France, and all that.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
European, yeah.
European, yeah.
Lex Fridman
The whole European side. But those are completely different cultures.
The whole European side. But those are completely different cultures.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes. Well, in Brazil, their strength is in their numbers. How many people do they have? The population is huge, more than two hundred million. And people really love it there. It’s a huge tradition. Because, you know, without a real love for this sport, you can never achieve any success. You truly have to love what you are doing. So they have the tradition and they have the love for it, and that is why they play for all the top clubs. Well, I think they just win by numbers.
Yes. Well, in Brazil, their strength is in their numbers. How many people do they have? The population is huge, more than two hundred million. And people really love it there. It’s a huge tradition. Because, you know, without a real love for this sport, you can never achieve any success. You truly have to love what you are doing. So they have the tradition and they have the love for it, and that is why they play for all the top clubs. Well, I think they just win by numbers.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s a powerful aspect of their culture. How much people, how much the whole nation loves to play football. And if you add to that a system that creates strong teams, that’s how you can produce so many football legends.
Yeah, that’s a powerful aspect of their culture. How much people, how much the whole nation loves to play football. And if you add to that a system that creates strong teams, that’s how you can produce so many football legends.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes. Take Dagestan, for example. We love football. I just know how much people in Dagestan love football. Yes, we have wrestlers, fighters. There are many of us. But for football players, there is no ecosystem like that. Not so well organized where a kid can, for example, play at school, then go to some academy, then get noticed there, and then get picked up by a club. We don’t have that system. It’s just kids running on the streets, playing on the streets, following football. Let’s say playing on PlayStation. There is no system. There is no selection process where kids can go and show themselves, so they can be noticed and get signed. I think Brazil and other countries, and of course Europe, they have it. So yeah, we have big problems with football.
Yes. Take Dagestan, for example. We love football. I just know how much people in Dagestan love football. Yes, we have wrestlers, fighters. There are many of us. But for football players, there is no ecosystem like that. Not so well organized where a kid can, for example, play at school, then go to some academy, then get noticed there, and then get picked up by a club. We don’t have that system. It’s just kids running on the streets, playing on the streets, following football. Let’s say playing on PlayStation. There is no system. There is no selection process where kids can go and show themselves, so they can be noticed and get signed. I think Brazil and other countries, and of course Europe, they have it. So yeah, we have big problems with football.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
However, in our sports where you can wrestle, where you can fight, in that sense, we have a system. For example, the gyms, you know, in Makhachkala, let’s say for combat sports. I’m not even counting like freestyle wrestling or other styles. There may be forty or fifty gyms for combat sports, and all are full. If you win in Dagestan, you move on to the North Caucasus level, then to the Russian nationals. If you’re champion of Russia, you go to the Worlds. In amateurs, they notice you and you make a name for yourself. There is a certain ladder here. But in many other sports here in Dagestan, we don’t have such a well-structured ladder for people to climb.
However, in our sports where you can wrestle, where you can fight, in that sense, we have a system. For example, the gyms, you know, in Makhachkala, let’s say for combat sports. I’m not even counting like freestyle wrestling or other styles. There may be forty or fifty gyms for combat sports, and all are full. If you win in Dagestan, you move on to the North Caucasus level, then to the Russian nationals. If you’re champion of Russia, you go to the Worlds. In amateurs, they notice you and you make a name for yourself. There is a certain ladder here. But in many other sports here in Dagestan, we don’t have such a well-structured ladder for people to climb.
Lex Fridman
Can we look at this philosophically again? I mean, you’ve seen so many wrestlers, fighters. Why exactly were these gyms creating so many champions? I’m just honestly curious because it’s rare in any sport, one gym or a small number of gyms creating so many champions.
Can we look at this philosophically again? I mean, you’ve seen so many wrestlers, fighters. Why exactly were these gyms creating so many champions? I’m just honestly curious because it’s rare in any sport, one gym or a small number of gyms creating so many champions.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, first important factor is the competition level is incredibly high. You come to the gym, and in every spot you have good wrestlers, ten or fifteen guys right there, and the coaches are great. You know, it so happened that my father broke through in the media, and then I became a champion, and the other guys became champions too. And my father’s philosophy, it really resonated, and he became known for it.
Well, first important factor is the competition level is incredibly high. You come to the gym, and in every spot you have good wrestlers, ten or fifteen guys right there, and the coaches are great. You know, it so happened that my father broke through in the media, and then I became a champion, and the other guys became champions too. And my father’s philosophy, it really resonated, and he became known for it.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
But there are coaches in Dagestan that not many people know about. They are known locally, but they are very good, and actually they have the knowledge, they have the approach, they have the philosophy. They could also be at the same level as my father was. I believe there are really quite a few of them. In terms of the coaching, I think Dagestan was extremely lucky. It probably goes back to the nineteen fifties when wrestling really took off here, starting with Ali Aliyev, our legendary wrestler, a five-time world champion who went to the Olympics three times. That’s where it started, with his generation. There was Zagalav Abdulbekov, Ali Aliyev. Those are the well-known names.
But there are coaches in Dagestan that not many people know about. They are known locally, but they are very good, and actually they have the knowledge, they have the approach, they have the philosophy. They could also be at the same level as my father was. I believe there are really quite a few of them. In terms of the coaching, I think Dagestan was extremely lucky. It probably goes back to the nineteen fifties when wrestling really took off here, starting with Ali Aliyev, our legendary wrestler, a five-time world champion who went to the Olympics three times. That’s where it started, with his generation. There was Zagalav Abdulbekov, Ali Aliyev. Those are the well-known names.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I mean, those guys are famous, but there were so many other less known wrestlers who later on, after they retired, they all became great coaches themselves. And these coaches, they raised a very large number of guys who are really good at wrestling. And then some of those coaches, they kind of switched over to fighting, let’s say to grappling, to MMA, and they started coaching in combat Sambo as well. And it just kept going like that, you know. It was moving forward step by step. And so we have a huge number of really great coaches. I believe this is one of the single most important keys to the success of Dagestani wrestlers and fighters, the coaching staff of Dagestan.
I mean, those guys are famous, but there were so many other less known wrestlers who later on, after they retired, they all became great coaches themselves. And these coaches, they raised a very large number of guys who are really good at wrestling. And then some of those coaches, they kind of switched over to fighting, let’s say to grappling, to MMA, and they started coaching in combat Sambo as well. And it just kept going like that, you know. It was moving forward step by step. And so we have a huge number of really great coaches. I believe this is one of the single most important keys to the success of Dagestani wrestlers and fighters, the coaching staff of Dagestan.
History of Dagestan warrior culture
Lex Fridman
Is it more about technique or is it really just about serious, incredibly hard work?
Is it more about technique or is it really just about serious, incredibly hard work?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, you have to look at the traditions, because generally it’s just the way it is in Dagestan. Everyone wrestles. Everyone fights. It’s part of our culture. You know yourself, fighting is like fifty percent wrestling. Every parent wants their children to wrestle, to be physically strong. Our approach to kids is that a child must be strong. They must be able to stand up for themselves, for their family. It’s something that has traditionally always been in every single one of our clans, every family, every village. It’s just in our blood.
Well, you have to look at the traditions, because generally it’s just the way it is in Dagestan. Everyone wrestles. Everyone fights. It’s part of our culture. You know yourself, fighting is like fifty percent wrestling. Every parent wants their children to wrestle, to be physically strong. Our approach to kids is that a child must be strong. They must be able to stand up for themselves, for their family. It’s something that has traditionally always been in every single one of our clans, every family, every village. It’s just in our blood.
Lex Fridman
I mean, it’s worth pointing out, and you’ve actually written about this, that this isn’t just a recent thing. It’s been going on for hundreds of years.
I mean, it’s worth pointing out, and you’ve actually written about this, that this isn’t just a recent thing. It’s been going on for hundreds of years.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, that’s right. These lands, Dagestan specifically, have seen powerful armies sweep through time and time again. Because of that, people here have always had to fight to survive.
Yes, that’s right. These lands, Dagestan specifically, have seen powerful armies sweep through time and time again. Because of that, people here have always had to fight to survive.
Lex Fridman
Refusing to back down, refusing to give up their land or lose their identity.
Refusing to back down, refusing to give up their land or lose their identity.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Their homes, their villages, yeah, their families, and land. If we look back a thousand years in history, maybe fifteen hundred years, there was the Khazar Khaganate, the Arabic Caliphate, then the Iranian Empire, or the Persian Empire, I should say. Then the Russian Empire, Timur passed through there, the Mongols. And if we look at the geographical location of Dagestan, for those who don’t know, the Caucasus range runs across the whole region like a wall, and then it slopes down right where the Caspian lowlands are. So you’ve got the sea on the right, the mountains on the left, and the Caspian lowlands right here. And there was a city there that’s still standing today. It’s one of the oldest cities in the world, not just in Russia. It’s Derbent.
Their homes, their villages, yeah, their families, and land. If we look back a thousand years in history, maybe fifteen hundred years, there was the Khazar Khaganate, the Arabic Caliphate, then the Iranian Empire, or the Persian Empire, I should say. Then the Russian Empire, Timur passed through there, the Mongols. And if we look at the geographical location of Dagestan, for those who don’t know, the Caucasus range runs across the whole region like a wall, and then it slopes down right where the Caspian lowlands are. So you’ve got the sea on the right, the mountains on the left, and the Caspian lowlands right here. And there was a city there that’s still standing today. It’s one of the oldest cities in the world, not just in Russia. It’s Derbent.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It used to be called Babul Abwab. It means the gate of gates. Very major trade routes went through there. Very large armies passed through, and it was bound to leave a mark on the people. We have so many languages, more than thirty different languages, and people just don’t understand each other. Take Islam and me. We have different languages, come from different backgrounds. Islam is Lak, and I’m Avar. When we talk, it’s not like it’s a dialect. We don’t understand each other at all. But since Islam has been with us for nearly twenty-five years, he actually picked up some Avar over time. But anyway, the deep history of the region, it all left its mark. It created many different languages and traditions.
It used to be called Babul Abwab. It means the gate of gates. Very major trade routes went through there. Very large armies passed through, and it was bound to leave a mark on the people. We have so many languages, more than thirty different languages, and people just don’t understand each other. Take Islam and me. We have different languages, come from different backgrounds. Islam is Lak, and I’m Avar. When we talk, it’s not like it’s a dialect. We don’t understand each other at all. But since Islam has been with us for nearly twenty-five years, he actually picked up some Avar over time. But anyway, the deep history of the region, it all left its mark. It created many different languages and traditions.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Basically, of course, Islam is our primary religion, but Dagestan has actually absorbed a lot of cultures and faiths. Even our food culture, it is incredibly rich. We have European and Asian and Caucasian, our own unique cuisine. So on the people, on the people themselves, the last fifteen hundred years of history have left a huge mark. If you’re into history and you start reading about Dagestan, I think you’ll get completely immersed and be amazed by what a unique place it is. So all of this left a huge mark. Look at the terrain. It’s a coastal plain, and then the mountains rise up. For instance, take someone like Timur. When he passed through with a huge army, he stayed in the Dagestan lowlands but never went up into the mountains. Why?
Basically, of course, Islam is our primary religion, but Dagestan has actually absorbed a lot of cultures and faiths. Even our food culture, it is incredibly rich. We have European and Asian and Caucasian, our own unique cuisine. So on the people, on the people themselves, the last fifteen hundred years of history have left a huge mark. If you’re into history and you start reading about Dagestan, I think you’ll get completely immersed and be amazed by what a unique place it is. So all of this left a huge mark. Look at the terrain. It’s a coastal plain, and then the mountains rise up. For instance, take someone like Timur. When he passed through with a huge army, he stayed in the Dagestan lowlands but never went up into the mountains. Why?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Because you’ve got hundreds of thousands of troops, soldiers traveling with horses and supplies. If they had started going up into the mountains where it’s cold and there are no roads, it would have been too tough for them. So the highlanders somehow managed to stay independent. But the lowlands, the Caspian lowlands of Dagestan, they kept changing hands. Massive empires would roll in, and all of that left a mark on the people. Gate of the gates, Babul Abwab. Historians wrote about it, say, a thousand or fifteen hundred years ago, great historians from various countries. People have written so much about Dagestan. It went by different names back then, but they wrote a ton about this exact region. Many people, many empires invaded our land.
Because you’ve got hundreds of thousands of troops, soldiers traveling with horses and supplies. If they had started going up into the mountains where it’s cold and there are no roads, it would have been too tough for them. So the highlanders somehow managed to stay independent. But the lowlands, the Caspian lowlands of Dagestan, they kept changing hands. Massive empires would roll in, and all of that left a mark on the people. Gate of the gates, Babul Abwab. Historians wrote about it, say, a thousand or fifteen hundred years ago, great historians from various countries. People have written so much about Dagestan. It went by different names back then, but they wrote a ton about this exact region. Many people, many empires invaded our land.
Lex Fridman
So do you feel that inside you, in your blood, your heart, like all of this history?
So do you feel that inside you, in your blood, your heart, like all of this history?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, in the past, it’s not like I really felt it. I knew Dagestan’s history, but maybe with time, you start to see it in a whole new light. Every year, you change a bit on a mental and psychological level. Now I understand. I really do. You cannot just be born physically and mentally strong. Your environment shapes you no matter what, where you grew up, how you grew up, the conditions, and who you had around you. And after all, genetics are also a part of who you are. So when you add all this up, yeah, I just feel like all of this has come together inside me.
Well, in the past, it’s not like I really felt it. I knew Dagestan’s history, but maybe with time, you start to see it in a whole new light. Every year, you change a bit on a mental and psychological level. Now I understand. I really do. You cannot just be born physically and mentally strong. Your environment shapes you no matter what, where you grew up, how you grew up, the conditions, and who you had around you. And after all, genetics are also a part of who you are. So when you add all this up, yeah, I just feel like all of this has come together inside me.
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting because in sports, we know many of the names of the great fighters and wrestlers. Yet when it comes to war, there are so many people who fought, heroes, truly great warriors. Some we know by name, but most of them we’ll never actually know and—
It’s interesting because in sports, we know many of the names of the great fighters and wrestlers. Yet when it comes to war, there are so many people who fought, heroes, truly great warriors. Some we know by name, but most of them we’ll never actually know and—
Khabib Nurmagomedov
We’ll never know.
We’ll never know.
Lex Fridman
You write about Imam Shamil, that he’s an important figure for this region and a hero as well.
You write about Imam Shamil, that he’s an important figure for this region and a hero as well.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, Imam Shamil, he was known for resisting an empire as huge as Russia. Dagestan is so small, and he had so few people with him. How did he get famous? He got famous because he held out for a very long time. He didn’t just resist for a couple of years. He was like a regular fighter, let’s say, a soldier for ten years, and then when he became the leader, he went on for another twenty-five years. So, 35 years of his conscious life he spent fighting not just some random empire, but what was then, if not the most powerful, definitely one of the strongest empires of that era. And that is what made him famous. And so there are villages in Dagestan that deeply honor the memory of particular warriors who came from their villages, from their clan, from their ethnic group.
Well, Imam Shamil, he was known for resisting an empire as huge as Russia. Dagestan is so small, and he had so few people with him. How did he get famous? He got famous because he held out for a very long time. He didn’t just resist for a couple of years. He was like a regular fighter, let’s say, a soldier for ten years, and then when he became the leader, he went on for another twenty-five years. So, 35 years of his conscious life he spent fighting not just some random empire, but what was then, if not the most powerful, definitely one of the strongest empires of that era. And that is what made him famous. And so there are villages in Dagestan that deeply honor the memory of particular warriors who came from their villages, from their clan, from their ethnic group.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
But in, well, world history, they’re barely known. Like, take Shamil. He’s a leader, right? So everybody knows him. But there are plenty of heroes who’ve been forgotten. But yeah, their own people remember.
But in, well, world history, they’re barely known. Like, take Shamil. He’s a leader, right? So everybody knows him. But there are plenty of heroes who’ve been forgotten. But yeah, their own people remember.
Lex Fridman
Villages hold on to history. Plus, we have to admit that conditions in the mountains are incredibly harsh. That’s part of it too. Just surviving up there is a real struggle.
Villages hold on to history. Plus, we have to admit that conditions in the mountains are incredibly harsh. That’s part of it too. Just surviving up there is a real struggle.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
See, back then, people in the mountains worked all through the summer just to survive the winter, because winters are harsh, with heavy snow, completely cutting off villages. People just stay inside and try to outlast it. And in the summer, they work. Terrace farming was a huge thing for us. Our terraces are among the most, you could say, famous and ancient in the world. They’re known as the Chokh terraces. Now, those are the famous ones. But every village had terraces. There’s a place out there called Marghit, right across from our village. People worked over there, but here, in the village, is where they lived. I mean, you’d think, why didn’t they just build a village right there, in the place where we grow all our food? Because enemies could easily ride in on horseback.
See, back then, people in the mountains worked all through the summer just to survive the winter, because winters are harsh, with heavy snow, completely cutting off villages. People just stay inside and try to outlast it. And in the summer, they work. Terrace farming was a huge thing for us. Our terraces are among the most, you could say, famous and ancient in the world. They’re known as the Chokh terraces. Now, those are the famous ones. But every village had terraces. There’s a place out there called Marghit, right across from our village. People worked over there, but here, in the village, is where they lived. I mean, you’d think, why didn’t they just build a village right there, in the place where we grow all our food? Because enemies could easily ride in on horseback.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
An army could easily get to you there, so they’d build a village in rugged terrain—
An army could easily get to you there, so they’d build a village in rugged terrain—
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
…somewhere tough to invade. For instance, our village is Sildi. It’s from the word si, which is like a castle or a fortress or a tower. They built it that way so an army couldn’t reach them. You’d have to hike down one mountain and then climb up a whole different mountain. And right there, they’d plant things like grain, potatoes, basically, you know, all their food. See, if we had built over there, if we lived there and grew our crops in the same place, since it’s all terraced land, an army could just walk right up, launch raids, and so on. Back in the day, that’s how people lived. And so all of this took a toll on people, physically, psychologically, and mentally. And honestly, well, you just can’t be born in these conditions, live here, stay here, and be mentally weak.
…somewhere tough to invade. For instance, our village is Sildi. It’s from the word si, which is like a castle or a fortress or a tower. They built it that way so an army couldn’t reach them. You’d have to hike down one mountain and then climb up a whole different mountain. And right there, they’d plant things like grain, potatoes, basically, you know, all their food. See, if we had built over there, if we lived there and grew our crops in the same place, since it’s all terraced land, an army could just walk right up, launch raids, and so on. Back in the day, that’s how people lived. And so all of this took a toll on people, physically, psychologically, and mentally. And honestly, well, you just can’t be born in these conditions, live here, stay here, and be mentally weak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You just have to be tough. There’s no other way to survive.
You just have to be tough. There’s no other way to survive.
Hard training in the mountains of Dagestan
Lex Fridman
So you just built a sports complex there. Pretty legendary, you know. Could you talk about that?
So you just built a sports complex there. Pretty legendary, you know. Could you talk about that?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, that was my father’s whole plan. He really wanted it way up in the mountains. First, it’s great for the fighters. Right now, I just flew out here to Las Vegas. We’re sitting here, like, doing this podcast together, but I came out here for Umar’s fight. And I should say, Umar did his main training there at the new base in Sildi. He spent almost a month at that place. And because it’s 1500 to 1600 meters above sea level, man, it’s tough to train there. And the thing is, when you spend about three to four weeks there, you just have more oxygen in your blood, you have more testosterone, you improve physically, you know, your stamina builds up, and so on. And this base was sort of my father’s dream. He started building it back in 2016, 2017. Money was tight back then.
Yes, that was my father’s whole plan. He really wanted it way up in the mountains. First, it’s great for the fighters. Right now, I just flew out here to Las Vegas. We’re sitting here, like, doing this podcast together, but I came out here for Umar’s fight. And I should say, Umar did his main training there at the new base in Sildi. He spent almost a month at that place. And because it’s 1500 to 1600 meters above sea level, man, it’s tough to train there. And the thing is, when you spend about three to four weeks there, you just have more oxygen in your blood, you have more testosterone, you improve physically, you know, your stamina builds up, and so on. And this base was sort of my father’s dream. He started building it back in 2016, 2017. Money was tight back then.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It was really hard, but we built it little by little. In 2020, my father passed away, but I kept the project going just a little differently, on a bigger scale. Right now, the base is open, and 100 people can be there at the same time, training, eating, sleeping. And our guys hold their training camps up there. So this was sort of my father’s dream that I have pretty much brought to life.
It was really hard, but we built it little by little. In 2020, my father passed away, but I kept the project going just a little differently, on a bigger scale. Right now, the base is open, and 100 people can be there at the same time, training, eating, sleeping. And our guys hold their training camps up there. So this was sort of my father’s dream that I have pretty much brought to life.
Lex Fridman
It’s a powerful story. To return to the place where you were born up in the mountains in order to build a sports complex where champions train. Makhachkala Gym is a great place, but the mountains are special.
It’s a powerful story. To return to the place where you were born up in the mountains in order to build a sports complex where champions train. Makhachkala Gym is a great place, but the mountains are special.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Mountains are mountains.
Mountains are mountains.
Lex Fridman
Mountains are mountains.
Mountains are mountains.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Your home village, no matter what, on some sort of deeper level, somehow gives you that, you know, like Americans love to say, positive energy. Not everything has to be done for money. And you know, you shouldn’t just look for profit in everything, let’s say financially. There are certain things that don’t bring me anything at all except for expenses, but I still do all of it because it brings me a lot of happiness and meaning. First of all, it creates a lot of jobs. People can work and earn a living. Second, it’s because my father really wanted this. Third, let’s say the guys can train and improve up there, both physically and spiritually. There are just so many benefits there.
Your home village, no matter what, on some sort of deeper level, somehow gives you that, you know, like Americans love to say, positive energy. Not everything has to be done for money. And you know, you shouldn’t just look for profit in everything, let’s say financially. There are certain things that don’t bring me anything at all except for expenses, but I still do all of it because it brings me a lot of happiness and meaning. First of all, it creates a lot of jobs. People can work and earn a living. Second, it’s because my father really wanted this. Third, let’s say the guys can train and improve up there, both physically and spiritually. There are just so many benefits there.
Lex Fridman
I don’t know if it’s okay to ask something like this, but I would dream of coming out there to Dagestan, and not just to Makhachkala, but to Sildi. Is that even possible for me?
I don’t know if it’s okay to ask something like this, but I would dream of coming out there to Dagestan, and not just to Makhachkala, but to Sildi. Is that even possible for me?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I think we could film a really good story out there. I’m not sure about a podcast, but I’m sure we could shoot a really nice vlog there.
I think we could film a really good story out there. I’m not sure about a podcast, but I’m sure we could shoot a really nice vlog there.
Lex Fridman
So can you tell me a bit about the journey from Makhachkala all the way to Sildi?
So can you tell me a bit about the journey from Makhachkala all the way to Sildi?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Four hours. Well, 3:40.
Four hours. Well, 3:40.
Lex Fridman
Through the mountains?
Through the mountains?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, 3:30, 3:40 through the mountains. The road is a real winding one, not an easy ride. If it gets to be too hard for you, we can just take a helicopter. It’s no problem at all. Like 40 to 50 minutes from Makhachkala to Sildi. Otherwise, keeping it more down to earth, we go by car, so there’s absolutely no problem.
Yeah, 3:30, 3:40 through the mountains. The road is a real winding one, not an easy ride. If it gets to be too hard for you, we can just take a helicopter. It’s no problem at all. Like 40 to 50 minutes from Makhachkala to Sildi. Otherwise, keeping it more down to earth, we go by car, so there’s absolutely no problem.
Lex Fridman
I could never get used to a wealthy life. It’s just, it’s not in my blood to be like that.
I could never get used to a wealthy life. It’s just, it’s not in my blood to be like that.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
All right, then we’ll go by car.
All right, then we’ll go by car.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, we could go on horseback, but a car is better.
Yeah, we could go on horseback, but a car is better.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
No, no, by car is better. On horseback takes way too long.
No, no, by car is better. On horseback takes way too long.
The trap of fame, money, and power
Lex Fridman
So you mentioned money, and we were just talking about comfort because right now there are so many champions. They win so much. Things are going so well. How much harder is it to stay a champion when the money and the fame start coming in, when all that stuff starts showing up?
So you mentioned money, and we were just talking about comfort because right now there are so many champions. They win so much. Things are going so well. How much harder is it to stay a champion when the money and the fame start coming in, when all that stuff starts showing up?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, those are all distracting things. When you become a champion, there’s a massive amount of attention on you. Sometimes it’s contracts, sometimes you end up having to fly a lot, you start getting busy with things, and little by little you begin to miss your workouts. You miss one, you miss two, you miss three. And all of that takes a toll, and the person who used to train with such a drive, with a hunger to be the best, as soon as they actually become the best, they just don’t know what to do next. And they live their whole life just to become stay on the top.
Well, those are all distracting things. When you become a champion, there’s a massive amount of attention on you. Sometimes it’s contracts, sometimes you end up having to fly a lot, you start getting busy with things, and little by little you begin to miss your workouts. You miss one, you miss two, you miss three. And all of that takes a toll, and the person who used to train with such a drive, with a hunger to be the best, as soon as they actually become the best, they just don’t know what to do next. And they live their whole life just to become stay on the top.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
As soon as they get there, what are they supposed to do? That’s it. They already made it. They’ve reached their goal, and there are just so many distracting factors: money, flights, you know, meetings, contracts, video shoots. There are just so many distracting factors. And so if a person doesn’t know how to handle all of this, then that person comes down from the top real fast. And I’m saying this based on my own experience, from what I’ve seen all around me with the ones who came before me. And back then when I was training with my father, his students who went on to become world champions, just how they finished their careers and so on. And it’s what I saw from my own observations of other types of sports, how they came back down, as far as I’ve learned.
As soon as they get there, what are they supposed to do? That’s it. They already made it. They’ve reached their goal, and there are just so many distracting factors: money, flights, you know, meetings, contracts, video shoots. There are just so many distracting factors. And so if a person doesn’t know how to handle all of this, then that person comes down from the top real fast. And I’m saying this based on my own experience, from what I’ve seen all around me with the ones who came before me. And back then when I was training with my father, his students who went on to become world champions, just how they finished their careers and so on. And it’s what I saw from my own observations of other types of sports, how they came back down, as far as I’ve learned.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
This is a very delicate moment. If a person climbing all the way to the top, if they can handle all of that, that already shows they have an incredibly serious mindset. Reaching the championship and staying there, reaching it is one thing, but staying a champion, that’s totally different. It’s incredibly tough.
This is a very delicate moment. If a person climbing all the way to the top, if they can handle all of that, that already shows they have an incredibly serious mindset. Reaching the championship and staying there, reaching it is one thing, but staying a champion, that’s totally different. It’s incredibly tough.
Lex Fridman
You’re saying that even on a local level, once you become a champion, that’s already the tough moment because a lot of people who start winning, like you said, they stop fighting, they quit doing MMA and switch over to fitness. They find themselves that comfort. But holding onto it is hard, even on a local level. Every single time you become more and more of a champion, you won the Sambo championship, you keep winning more and more, and every time it gets harder.
You’re saying that even on a local level, once you become a champion, that’s already the tough moment because a lot of people who start winning, like you said, they stop fighting, they quit doing MMA and switch over to fitness. They find themselves that comfort. But holding onto it is hard, even on a local level. Every single time you become more and more of a champion, you won the Sambo championship, you keep winning more and more, and every time it gets harder.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, and it depends on the person’s goals. If you want to become an amateur champion just to prove something to yourself, that’s one thing. But if you view amateur sports as a springboard to jump right into professional sports and become a champion among professionals, that’s a whole different thing. There are different paths. First, you build an amateur career just to get into the pros and go even further from there. Second, after you’ve made it into the pros, you become a champion. And third, after you become a champion, you have to stay there. Not everyone has what it takes. It is incredibly tough. If you look at the numbers, you can literally count these champions on one hand. How many of them are there? Maybe 15, 20, 30 people?
Yes, and it depends on the person’s goals. If you want to become an amateur champion just to prove something to yourself, that’s one thing. But if you view amateur sports as a springboard to jump right into professional sports and become a champion among professionals, that’s a whole different thing. There are different paths. First, you build an amateur career just to get into the pros and go even further from there. Second, after you’ve made it into the pros, you become a champion. And third, after you become a champion, you have to stay there. Not everyone has what it takes. It is incredibly tough. If you look at the numbers, you can literally count these champions on one hand. How many of them are there? Maybe 15, 20, 30 people?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Let’s say 50 over the last 30 years, and how many have tried? For example, 50 achieved it over 30 years, over 35 years of MMA combat sports. But how many tried? Hundreds of thousands. And look at that number. Such a tiny amount actually reached the end goal. So for you to actually make it into this tiny list, you really have to be like just a truly unique person and a fighter and, you know, a student, and a person who can accept guidance from a coach who, when they are being guided, discard the cons and take only the pros. But there are people who take criticism very hard and very negatively, and are very sensitive, let’s say, when they take criticism-
Let’s say 50 over the last 30 years, and how many have tried? For example, 50 achieved it over 30 years, over 35 years of MMA combat sports. But how many tried? Hundreds of thousands. And look at that number. Such a tiny amount actually reached the end goal. So for you to actually make it into this tiny list, you really have to be like just a truly unique person and a fighter and, you know, a student, and a person who can accept guidance from a coach who, when they are being guided, discard the cons and take only the pros. But there are people who take criticism very hard and very negatively, and are very sensitive, let’s say, when they take criticism-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
… from a mentor. So it all has to click, and some accept criticism at the very beginning, but then once they become champions, it’s hard for them to take it.
… from a mentor. So it all has to click, and some accept criticism at the very beginning, but then once they become champions, it’s hard for them to take it.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It happens differently. A man sometimes doesn’t even know what he is capable of. Sometimes he just can’t really understand himself until he achieves success or becomes famous, wealthy, and powerful. That is exactly when he discovers his true qualities. When he is limited in something, in money, in power, in everything that success eventually brings him, he doesn’t really know how he’s going to act in this new role, doesn’t know how he’ll behave once he becomes big, famous, and a champion. Nobody knows. Some people say and wish, “Oh, if only I’d made it like that, I would do things this way.” I think it’s better if people don’t throw around such big words because you never know how you’ll carry yourself once you actually get there.
It happens differently. A man sometimes doesn’t even know what he is capable of. Sometimes he just can’t really understand himself until he achieves success or becomes famous, wealthy, and powerful. That is exactly when he discovers his true qualities. When he is limited in something, in money, in power, in everything that success eventually brings him, he doesn’t really know how he’s going to act in this new role, doesn’t know how he’ll behave once he becomes big, famous, and a champion. Nobody knows. Some people say and wish, “Oh, if only I’d made it like that, I would do things this way.” I think it’s better if people don’t throw around such big words because you never know how you’ll carry yourself once you actually get there.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You know, it’s such a delicate thing, getting up there and still remaining human.
You know, it’s such a delicate thing, getting up there and still remaining human.
Lex Fridman
When it comes to you, I see that everyone here just loves you. Even early on in your career, millions of people loved you. That is also a tough thing to deal with because maybe you start believing it. And you can lose yourself in all of it. So is it all in the mind? I mean, what actually goes on in a champion’s head? In yours when you sat alone thinking about your life, “Who am I really, and what do I do to keep being a champion or to become one?”
When it comes to you, I see that everyone here just loves you. Even early on in your career, millions of people loved you. That is also a tough thing to deal with because maybe you start believing it. And you can lose yourself in all of it. So is it all in the mind? I mean, what actually goes on in a champion’s head? In yours when you sat alone thinking about your life, “Who am I really, and what do I do to keep being a champion or to become one?”
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, first of all, from the very beginning, if you realize that what you’re chasing isn’t the most important thing in life, then it gets easier for you. And then, you know, there are some people whose, let’s say, ultimate goal is to be successful, powerful, and to make it big. At the end of the day, after all, we are not really such big, important people. And, like, I believe it’s wrong to just crown yourself king because, to put it bluntly, if we’re being honest here, we can’t even control the basic need to go to the restroom. Maybe to some… Yeah. To some people this will probably seem a bit crude, but we all go to the restroom, excuse my language. If we can’t control even this, so what can we actually control in this life?
Well, first of all, from the very beginning, if you realize that what you’re chasing isn’t the most important thing in life, then it gets easier for you. And then, you know, there are some people whose, let’s say, ultimate goal is to be successful, powerful, and to make it big. At the end of the day, after all, we are not really such big, important people. And, like, I believe it’s wrong to just crown yourself king because, to put it bluntly, if we’re being honest here, we can’t even control the basic need to go to the restroom. Maybe to some… Yeah. To some people this will probably seem a bit crude, but we all go to the restroom, excuse my language. If we can’t control even this, so what can we actually control in this life?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Look how many people we know, how many great people have left this earth. It doesn’t really matter how, like, big, strong, or famous you are, how wealthy you are, champion or no champion. Either way, they put us all in the exact same grave, you know, two meters down or, like, a meter or a meter and a half. Different confessions, different religions, they bury people in different ways. So I actually believe that every single person should have this realization that we are just not some kind of big, important people here who just decide and get to control everything. We don’t get to do that. In my case, I was raised under the guidance of my father. My father was a coach, and my goal was always to become…
Look how many people we know, how many great people have left this earth. It doesn’t really matter how, like, big, strong, or famous you are, how wealthy you are, champion or no champion. Either way, they put us all in the exact same grave, you know, two meters down or, like, a meter or a meter and a half. Different confessions, different religions, they bury people in different ways. So I actually believe that every single person should have this realization that we are just not some kind of big, important people here who just decide and get to control everything. We don’t get to do that. In my case, I was raised under the guidance of my father. My father was a coach, and my goal was always to become…
Khabib Nurmagomedov
To prove to my father that out of everyone, even though he trains many other people, he trains everyone, I mean, I’m also here. I can show him. He doesn’t have to look very far. I’m right there, and under his guidance, I can become a champion. I looked up to him and followed his example, trained hard, and it was like, you know, a kind of a challenge to prove to him that, “Look, I am right here, Father, and everything you teach, I will take it all in zealously, worthily. I’ll follow your program, do it right, and I will become a champion.” And that was exactly the kind of goal I had, to prove it first and foremost to my father and secondly to the entire world that I can become the best wrestler or fighter. But I never thought of being crowned king after I became a champion.
To prove to my father that out of everyone, even though he trains many other people, he trains everyone, I mean, I’m also here. I can show him. He doesn’t have to look very far. I’m right there, and under his guidance, I can become a champion. I looked up to him and followed his example, trained hard, and it was like, you know, a kind of a challenge to prove to him that, “Look, I am right here, Father, and everything you teach, I will take it all in zealously, worthily. I’ll follow your program, do it right, and I will become a champion.” And that was exactly the kind of goal I had, to prove it first and foremost to my father and secondly to the entire world that I can become the best wrestler or fighter. But I never thought of being crowned king after I became a champion.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I was never going to walk around like, “Look how cool I am.” That was never in my head, and I’m really glad that the Almighty protected me from all of that because many people end up in a bad place if they act like that.
I was never going to walk around like, “Look how cool I am.” That was never in my head, and I’m really glad that the Almighty protected me from all of that because many people end up in a bad place if they act like that.
Lex Fridman
This is a profound wisdom, not thinking about being crowned. But even if you don’t, a fire should burn within you, driving you to become a champion, right? As you said, hundreds of thousands, millions of people want to be a champion, but only one can be.
This is a profound wisdom, not thinking about being crowned. But even if you don’t, a fire should burn within you, driving you to become a champion, right? As you said, hundreds of thousands, millions of people want to be a champion, but only one can be.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, but that is actually about you confronting your opponent. You’ve got to put a barrier inside your mind where on one side you’re a humble person, but on the other side you’re different because you have a goal, your goal. Of course, you should still follow a code of honor. You should be a man, a righteous man, and know what you can and cannot do. You should always do that. But in the end, your opponent is the person who wants to stop your dream. So here the boundaries expand just a little bit. Right here, you’re already not playing humble. Right here, you just step out and you want to clear your opponent out of your way, and that’s it, because your goal is to be the best in the world and they are blocking you. Excuse me, but in this situation, there’s no way you can act all humble.
Yeah, but that is actually about you confronting your opponent. You’ve got to put a barrier inside your mind where on one side you’re a humble person, but on the other side you’re different because you have a goal, your goal. Of course, you should still follow a code of honor. You should be a man, a righteous man, and know what you can and cannot do. You should always do that. But in the end, your opponent is the person who wants to stop your dream. So here the boundaries expand just a little bit. Right here, you’re already not playing humble. Right here, you just step out and you want to clear your opponent out of your way, and that’s it, because your goal is to be the best in the world and they are blocking you. Excuse me, but in this situation, there’s no way you can act all humble.
The key to Khabib’s dominance
Lex Fridman
Okay. But when you were training in the gym, what was it that gave you this strength? A hatred of losing or a love for winning?
Okay. But when you were training in the gym, what was it that gave you this strength? A hatred of losing or a love for winning?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I think it was the hatred of losing. Yes, definitely. I mean, you know, of course you want to win, but for me there was always this driver like, “No way. I am not losing,” you know. When they would give me a fight, I always tell this to my guys, whenever they would give me a fight on a professional level, 100 days before it I was… How do you say it? Addiction. I was fixated like when people have this addiction. But for me it was commitment, that I absolutely had to prepare perfectly for the fight. I couldn’t miss any training sessions. I would literally have, like, this panic. Like, for example, I’d fly somewhere and I have, let’s say, eighty-five days left until the fight.
I think it was the hatred of losing. Yes, definitely. I mean, you know, of course you want to win, but for me there was always this driver like, “No way. I am not losing,” you know. When they would give me a fight, I always tell this to my guys, whenever they would give me a fight on a professional level, 100 days before it I was… How do you say it? Addiction. I was fixated like when people have this addiction. But for me it was commitment, that I absolutely had to prepare perfectly for the fight. I couldn’t miss any training sessions. I would literally have, like, this panic. Like, for example, I’d fly somewhere and I have, let’s say, eighty-five days left until the fight.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Like, I knew that I had to fly. For example, if I was flying to Moscow, I would always pick a ticket so I could absolutely do my morning training session first. Then I’d take off around lunchtime. And once I arrived in Moscow, for whatever reason, I had to fit it all around my training schedule. Either I had to meet up before my training sessions or I had to meet up after my training sessions. And I simply could not miss that evening training session because I had to train during the day from four to five hours, two in the morning and two to two and a half in the evening. And I needed to prepare myself that way. Looking at who was in Moscow right then, wondering who I could, like pull into a training session there.
Like, I knew that I had to fly. For example, if I was flying to Moscow, I would always pick a ticket so I could absolutely do my morning training session first. Then I’d take off around lunchtime. And once I arrived in Moscow, for whatever reason, I had to fit it all around my training schedule. Either I had to meet up before my training sessions or I had to meet up after my training sessions. And I simply could not miss that evening training session because I had to train during the day from four to five hours, two in the morning and two to two and a half in the evening. And I needed to prepare myself that way. Looking at who was in Moscow right then, wondering who I could, like pull into a training session there.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, they also had to– the person had to match my level as well. Not just like I showed up there, you know, played around with him. I needed a fight back. I would arrange in advance who was gonna come. Maybe some sparring, maybe I’d do wrestling, maybe I’d hit the weights, maybe a striking workout. So I had this, let’s say I always had this tough and scientific approach to it. So I believe that more than anything, I didn’t want to lose rather than I wanted to win, you know? Of course, winning is also a huge pleasure, but more than anything, I just didn’t want to lose.
Well, they also had to– the person had to match my level as well. Not just like I showed up there, you know, played around with him. I needed a fight back. I would arrange in advance who was gonna come. Maybe some sparring, maybe I’d do wrestling, maybe I’d hit the weights, maybe a striking workout. So I had this, let’s say I always had this tough and scientific approach to it. So I believe that more than anything, I didn’t want to lose rather than I wanted to win, you know? Of course, winning is also a huge pleasure, but more than anything, I just didn’t want to lose.
Lex Fridman
So in all those hard training sessions, you were thinking about not losing. That’s the fuel.
So in all those hard training sessions, you were thinking about not losing. That’s the fuel.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
The fuel.
The fuel.
Lex Fridman
Four to five hours every single day.
Four to five hours every single day.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Every day.
Every day.
Lex Fridman
There is a story that I heard. Sadulaev, the legendary wrestler, told a story that he went to a hotel, I think it was in Moscow, to train in the gym, and he was the only– It was during the night, I don’t know. He was the only one who was there. And you came down- … And you actually trained together. And he said a lot of great things about you. He said that you gave him some really deep wisdom, which helped him to win the gold medal at the Olympic Games. I’m curious, could you tell us now what you told him? What kind of wisdom did you give him?
There is a story that I heard. Sadulaev, the legendary wrestler, told a story that he went to a hotel, I think it was in Moscow, to train in the gym, and he was the only– It was during the night, I don’t know. He was the only one who was there. And you came down- … And you actually trained together. And he said a lot of great things about you. He said that you gave him some really deep wisdom, which helped him to win the gold medal at the Olympic Games. I’m curious, could you tell us now what you told him? What kind of wisdom did you give him?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I can’t remember exactly, but we had really great conversations.
I can’t remember exactly, but we had really great conversations.
Lex Fridman
It’s a great story that the two of you, like two legends like that, just met completely by chance.
It’s a great story that the two of you, like two legends like that, just met completely by chance.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, look, he’s a two-time Olympic champion, right?
Well, look, he’s a two-time Olympic champion, right?
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I think he doesn’t skip his training either. He never missed one back then. I believe that we both ended up there because we both, you know, hate to lose, and we both really want to win. And, you know, recently I came across this idea. There are athletes who simply want to win, and then there are some for whom victory isn’t enough. They want domination. I believe that he is one of those as well. They want domination. And for that, what does a person have to do? They have to train. They have to grind morning and night. And there was this thing with us. After the morning, my father never let us sleep. When I say the morning, I mean after Fajr, the dawn prayer. He just wouldn’t sleep himself, so we couldn’t either. So every morning, six, seven, we’d be out doing our warm-up.
I think he doesn’t skip his training either. He never missed one back then. I believe that we both ended up there because we both, you know, hate to lose, and we both really want to win. And, you know, recently I came across this idea. There are athletes who simply want to win, and then there are some for whom victory isn’t enough. They want domination. I believe that he is one of those as well. They want domination. And for that, what does a person have to do? They have to train. They have to grind morning and night. And there was this thing with us. After the morning, my father never let us sleep. When I say the morning, I mean after Fajr, the dawn prayer. He just wouldn’t sleep himself, so we couldn’t either. So every morning, six, seven, we’d be out doing our warm-up.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Some people might call it a warm-up, but when you show up at the stadium in the morning, you run five kilometers, you do sprints, you work with resistance bands, you work on the pull-up bar, you do push-ups, dips, jumps, you know the bands then work with a partner, drilling and so on. That’s about two hours of work. You drop two, two and a half kilos there. Not really a warm-up, but Father always called it that, right? That was a full morning training at seven AM. Then I came home to rest, and at four o’clock, we’d head to the gym. The training would start at five o’clock and end at seven. By eight, I’d be home, and by eleven, I’d rest up. And yet I kept thinking that something was missing.
Some people might call it a warm-up, but when you show up at the stadium in the morning, you run five kilometers, you do sprints, you work with resistance bands, you work on the pull-up bar, you do push-ups, dips, jumps, you know the bands then work with a partner, drilling and so on. That’s about two hours of work. You drop two, two and a half kilos there. Not really a warm-up, but Father always called it that, right? That was a full morning training at seven AM. Then I came home to rest, and at four o’clock, we’d head to the gym. The training would start at five o’clock and end at seven. By eight, I’d be home, and by eleven, I’d rest up. And yet I kept thinking that something was missing.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Like, I know that I have a start, a competition coming up in like forty or thirty days, and I would wake up and I’d be like, “Let me go to the sea. I’m gonna go down to the sea, do some running, some sprints on the sand, work out, and so on.” And so many times, I ended up going out for a third training session as well. Sometimes Father would say, “Rest. In the morning, we’re gonna have a heavy workload.” But sometimes I wouldn’t tell Father. I’d just go out at night, head out, and train. At night when everyone’s asleep, when nobody’s around, I’d grab one of my close friends, give them a call, have them pick me up, then hop in the car and head to the sea. I’d train for an hour or an hour and a half, come back, and crash. Next morning, I’d get up and start all over again.
Like, I know that I have a start, a competition coming up in like forty or thirty days, and I would wake up and I’d be like, “Let me go to the sea. I’m gonna go down to the sea, do some running, some sprints on the sand, work out, and so on.” And so many times, I ended up going out for a third training session as well. Sometimes Father would say, “Rest. In the morning, we’re gonna have a heavy workload.” But sometimes I wouldn’t tell Father. I’d just go out at night, head out, and train. At night when everyone’s asleep, when nobody’s around, I’d grab one of my close friends, give them a call, have them pick me up, then hop in the car and head to the sea. I’d train for an hour or an hour and a half, come back, and crash. Next morning, I’d get up and start all over again.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And just this routine, nonstop. And when I see guys, you know, when they do just one training session or like they say, “On Wednesday, we have a morning training, then an evening sauna session.” What do you mean? You have to fight in fifty days. You have a huge fight ahead and you want to take a rest in the middle of the week? Well, rest on Sunday. On Saturday, do a morning training, hit the sauna in the evening, take a complete rest on Sunday, and start all over again on Monday. That was just my approach. Everyone does it differently. I don’t know. I just think it has to be in your head. You’ve got to want it incredibly badly.
And just this routine, nonstop. And when I see guys, you know, when they do just one training session or like they say, “On Wednesday, we have a morning training, then an evening sauna session.” What do you mean? You have to fight in fifty days. You have a huge fight ahead and you want to take a rest in the middle of the week? Well, rest on Sunday. On Saturday, do a morning training, hit the sauna in the evening, take a complete rest on Sunday, and start all over again on Monday. That was just my approach. Everyone does it differently. I don’t know. I just think it has to be in your head. You’ve got to want it incredibly badly.
Lex Fridman
So you believe that to be a champion, you have to train like that, you have to be that serious for the majority of people?
So you believe that to be a champion, you have to train like that, you have to be that serious for the majority of people?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Let’s say I believe that to be at the top, the top tier, right? One of the best in the world. A person has to always be, you know, a little bit, let’s say just a little bit crazy, but in a good sense of the word. You have to be addicted to it and to want this incredibly bad. You have to take a fanatical approach to the training process. Just showing up and working out, that’s what hundreds of thousands of guys are doing around the world. To stand out from that, from this crowd, let’s say, who have the exact same goals as you do, to stand out from that, you have to take a fanatical approach to it.
Let’s say I believe that to be at the top, the top tier, right? One of the best in the world. A person has to always be, you know, a little bit, let’s say just a little bit crazy, but in a good sense of the word. You have to be addicted to it and to want this incredibly bad. You have to take a fanatical approach to the training process. Just showing up and working out, that’s what hundreds of thousands of guys are doing around the world. To stand out from that, from this crowd, let’s say, who have the exact same goals as you do, to stand out from that, you have to take a fanatical approach to it.
Lex Fridman
Well, look, I’m training with John Danaher. And they train like that too. They train three times a day. And it actually feels right this way. I mean, of course, this is how you have to train.
Well, look, I’m training with John Danaher. And they train like that too. They train three times a day. And it actually feels right this way. I mean, of course, this is how you have to train.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
‘Cause of that, John has one of the best-
‘Cause of that, John has one of the best-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, he makes champions.
Yeah, he makes champions.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
… students in the world, and after all, they don’t just take some random place. I mean, they’re not somewhere in the middle. They’re at the top, and look at their whole approach. Some people… Look, a person with that kind of approach just can’t be somewhere in the middle. It’s impossible. If you have a fanatical attitude, the right attitude toward the training process, on top of that, you have to be fanatical about it. You love what you do, and in the end, there will be results. Well, just look at John and look where his guys are. He creates champions. He finds a champion in everyone, across every category, right?
… students in the world, and after all, they don’t just take some random place. I mean, they’re not somewhere in the middle. They’re at the top, and look at their whole approach. Some people… Look, a person with that kind of approach just can’t be somewhere in the middle. It’s impossible. If you have a fanatical attitude, the right attitude toward the training process, on top of that, you have to be fanatical about it. You love what you do, and in the end, there will be results. Well, just look at John and look where his guys are. He creates champions. He finds a champion in everyone, across every category, right?
Lex Fridman
He makes, he creates champions, not just one or two, but all of them. He finds a champion in everyone, across every category.
He makes, he creates champions, not just one or two, but all of them. He finds a champion in everyone, across every category.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Look, the people who come to him, he has a system, let’s say, right? Under this roof, under his roof, there is a system. People come here, and they become champions in this system. So there are people there who are champions. These are specific established names. And there are other people who came and left. They entered that black room, so to say, an uncomfortable place. They went in, stood for a year, a year and a half or two, and left. Nobody talks about them. These are the people who came in, broke mentally, and left, and there aren’t just a few of them. There are a lot. Usually, most people give up. There are many who give up, but then there are the ones who come in and stay there for a long time. Long, long time. And after some time, they achieve success. They become the best.
Look, the people who come to him, he has a system, let’s say, right? Under this roof, under his roof, there is a system. People come here, and they become champions in this system. So there are people there who are champions. These are specific established names. And there are other people who came and left. They entered that black room, so to say, an uncomfortable place. They went in, stood for a year, a year and a half or two, and left. Nobody talks about them. These are the people who came in, broke mentally, and left, and there aren’t just a few of them. There are a lot. Usually, most people give up. There are many who give up, but then there are the ones who come in and stay there for a long time. Long, long time. And after some time, they achieve success. They become the best.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
They prove to themselves that once they enter the system, they could stay there for a long time, endure, and become the best. They prove that they are already capable of many things. They can be trusted to supervise big, important projects. I would even say, for example, 2,000 years ago, they could easily rule entire cities. So a person who has gone through it physically, who has lived through it, who has faced challenges, passed the tests, they are capable of a lot, highly capable. You don’t just walk into martial arts and become the best. It’s very difficult. It means that you go through pain, you make sacrifices, you give your time, you face setbacks and failures in training. The mental strength and capacity mean a lot there.
They prove to themselves that once they enter the system, they could stay there for a long time, endure, and become the best. They prove that they are already capable of many things. They can be trusted to supervise big, important projects. I would even say, for example, 2,000 years ago, they could easily rule entire cities. So a person who has gone through it physically, who has lived through it, who has faced challenges, passed the tests, they are capable of a lot, highly capable. You don’t just walk into martial arts and become the best. It’s very difficult. It means that you go through pain, you make sacrifices, you give your time, you face setbacks and failures in training. The mental strength and capacity mean a lot there.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And when I talk about his system, look, I mean those schools that became the best, let’s say, in football or in freestyle wrestling or, let’s say, in MMA, in grappling, or in judo. It’s really hard to enter one of the best schools in the world, to stay when they are breaking you, throwing you, choking you, to improve as a person and as an athlete, and to become a champion. It takes at least 12 years, 10 to 12 years, maybe 15. For some, it took longer. And to get through the grind for these 15 years and then to break through and become the best is worth a lot.
And when I talk about his system, look, I mean those schools that became the best, let’s say, in football or in freestyle wrestling or, let’s say, in MMA, in grappling, or in judo. It’s really hard to enter one of the best schools in the world, to stay when they are breaking you, throwing you, choking you, to improve as a person and as an athlete, and to become a champion. It takes at least 12 years, 10 to 12 years, maybe 15. For some, it took longer. And to get through the grind for these 15 years and then to break through and become the best is worth a lot.
Discipline and hard work
Lex Fridman
Have you had those tough moments where you’re almost broken psychologically? You know, just sitting there, finding it hard to breathe, and everything is going wrong, lost in some situations. And when you were young, was there ever a moment like that? ‘Cause the guys from Dagestan on the team, really great guys, by the way, all say they’ve never seen you broken in training, not even losing really. But when you were young, did it ever happen?
Have you had those tough moments where you’re almost broken psychologically? You know, just sitting there, finding it hard to breathe, and everything is going wrong, lost in some situations. And when you were young, was there ever a moment like that? ‘Cause the guys from Dagestan on the team, really great guys, by the way, all say they’ve never seen you broken in training, not even losing really. But when you were young, did it ever happen?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Look, I’ve been in this grind since I was a kid. Wherever my father coached, there were always… Let’s take the year 2004, for example. My father put together the Dagestan national team for combat sambo and in mixed martial arts, which was called no-holds-barred fighting. There were training camps, too. I was 15. It was the winter of 2004, and I was the youngest guy there. The others were, let’s say, between 22 and 30, all active world champions. At that time, I was, like, 14, 15 years old. I wrestled with them, grappled, was in this uncomfortable environment for myself, where we always had the rule that the youngest has to do everything, and he is always wrong, and I had to deal with that.
Look, I’ve been in this grind since I was a kid. Wherever my father coached, there were always… Let’s take the year 2004, for example. My father put together the Dagestan national team for combat sambo and in mixed martial arts, which was called no-holds-barred fighting. There were training camps, too. I was 15. It was the winter of 2004, and I was the youngest guy there. The others were, let’s say, between 22 and 30, all active world champions. At that time, I was, like, 14, 15 years old. I wrestled with them, grappled, was in this uncomfortable environment for myself, where we always had the rule that the youngest has to do everything, and he is always wrong, and I had to deal with that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Especially in the gym, they throw you, hit you again and again. You have to show up morning and evening, day after day. This place hardens you. They say, “How the Steel Was Tempered.” Steel isn’t tempered for nothing. How many times do you have to strike the steel before it becomes a sword? That doesn’t just happen by itself.
Especially in the gym, they throw you, hit you again and again. You have to show up morning and evening, day after day. This place hardens you. They say, “How the Steel Was Tempered.” Steel isn’t tempered for nothing. How many times do you have to strike the steel before it becomes a sword? That doesn’t just happen by itself.
Lex Fridman
Did you believe in yourself then?
Did you believe in yourself then?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Some of the guys who were at those camps back then, they’re grown men now. Even then, they were older than me by 10, 12, maybe 15 years. And they always used to say, “Khabib, we honestly thought you were going to become some kind of scholar or scientist.” Because my father was always making me read and write, read and write. I would copy out entire books by hand. There was always this control. It wasn’t like he’d say, “Khabib, go do this”, and you could just walk away and not do it. When he said, “Go do it”, you did it. My father never forgot anything. He had a phenomenal memory. He’d be like, “Did you do it?” And everything he told you, he remembered. He just did.
Some of the guys who were at those camps back then, they’re grown men now. Even then, they were older than me by 10, 12, maybe 15 years. And they always used to say, “Khabib, we honestly thought you were going to become some kind of scholar or scientist.” Because my father was always making me read and write, read and write. I would copy out entire books by hand. There was always this control. It wasn’t like he’d say, “Khabib, go do this”, and you could just walk away and not do it. When he said, “Go do it”, you did it. My father never forgot anything. He had a phenomenal memory. He’d be like, “Did you do it?” And everything he told you, he remembered. He just did.
Lex Fridman
He checked you.
He checked you.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
He was like, “Come here.” And he’d check. I knew it wasn’t something I could get away with. So, you know, since childhood, I was lucky that my father always kept me close, and I found myself in this environment among fighters who at that time- … were, I don’t know, they just didn’t compete in America and Europe back then. But in the post-Soviet space, they were the best at that time. And it helped me a lot to become mentally strong.
He was like, “Come here.” And he’d check. I knew it wasn’t something I could get away with. So, you know, since childhood, I was lucky that my father always kept me close, and I found myself in this environment among fighters who at that time- … were, I don’t know, they just didn’t compete in America and Europe back then. But in the post-Soviet space, they were the best at that time. And it helped me a lot to become mentally strong.
Lex Fridman
Tell me more about your father. You’ve read a lot. You didn’t just fight. You were well-rounded and you told several stories about this. There was a book, what is it called? “Countries and Peoples.”
Tell me more about your father. You’ve read a lot. You didn’t just fight. You were well-rounded and you told several stories about this. There was a book, what is it called? “Countries and Peoples.”
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, from my childhood.
Yes, from my childhood.
Lex Fridman
It is, really.
It is, really.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And it went on-
And it went on-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
The approach was the same.
The approach was the same.
Lex Fridman
Tell that story because I think it’s important for the parents listening to us to understand this. You’re not just trying to create a champion. You’re trying to raise a well-rounded person, a wise person, a person with depth.
Tell that story because I think it’s important for the parents listening to us to understand this. You’re not just trying to create a champion. You’re trying to raise a well-rounded person, a wise person, a person with depth.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, you have to give the right motivation to kids with proper communication. My father was very good at this. I now realize interacting with my own kids how wise he was and how deeply he understood this. Because when a child is eight, 10 years old, and when they are just beginning to form as a person, it is important to have the right approach. I now understand how farsighted my father’s approach was.
Yes, you have to give the right motivation to kids with proper communication. My father was very good at this. I now realize interacting with my own kids how wise he was and how deeply he understood this. Because when a child is eight, 10 years old, and when they are just beginning to form as a person, it is important to have the right approach. I now understand how farsighted my father’s approach was.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
First, he tried not to give me anything for free. Only sometimes I could get something for free. For example, before a holiday, like Eid al-Fitr or before school started, Father would give money. I’d go buy clothes at the market for back to school, that kind of thing, you know? And at other times, he always told me, “Well, if you want it, you need to earn it. You want me to give you money just like that?” There would be some work around the house and so on that I had to do. And I knew that encouragement would always be there. My father always had this kind of approach. He set a very strong personal example, very strong, and I really learnt a lot from him. Took a lot. And then, as you mentioned, there was the book, Countries and Peoples. Someone gave it to him as a gift.
First, he tried not to give me anything for free. Only sometimes I could get something for free. For example, before a holiday, like Eid al-Fitr or before school started, Father would give money. I’d go buy clothes at the market for back to school, that kind of thing, you know? And at other times, he always told me, “Well, if you want it, you need to earn it. You want me to give you money just like that?” There would be some work around the house and so on that I had to do. And I knew that encouragement would always be there. My father always had this kind of approach. He set a very strong personal example, very strong, and I really learnt a lot from him. Took a lot. And then, as you mentioned, there was the book, Countries and Peoples. Someone gave it to him as a gift.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
My father read through it, and he realized that it was perfect for me, for a child who was 10, 11, maybe 12 at the time. That book was part of my life for about two or three years, something like that.
My father read through it, and he realized that it was perfect for me, for a child who was 10, 11, maybe 12 at the time. That book was part of my life for about two or three years, something like that.
Lex Fridman
It was about 193 countries. The geography, history, all the details.
It was about 193 countries. The geography, history, all the details.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
For each country, it describes its geographical location, which countries it bordered, its major rivers, mountains, cities, history, economy, finances. Just brief information about every country. My father said, “You’ll tell me about each country, and I’ll give you money for it.” And I thought, “All right.” I knew this was like my own little capital just sitting there waiting for me. All I had to do was come, take that book, read it, understand it. Then my father would take the book and say, “Now, tell me what you read.” And he would check. He would look through it. The countries were arranged alphabetically. A for Andorra, Angola, and so on. B for Belgium, Brazil, and so on. Everything went in alphabetical order. I started from A and read them all straight to the very end.
For each country, it describes its geographical location, which countries it bordered, its major rivers, mountains, cities, history, economy, finances. Just brief information about every country. My father said, “You’ll tell me about each country, and I’ll give you money for it.” And I thought, “All right.” I knew this was like my own little capital just sitting there waiting for me. All I had to do was come, take that book, read it, understand it. Then my father would take the book and say, “Now, tell me what you read.” And he would check. He would look through it. The countries were arranged alphabetically. A for Andorra, Angola, and so on. B for Belgium, Brazil, and so on. Everything went in alphabetical order. I started from A and read them all straight to the very end.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Like every single time when I needed the money, I did that. And for example, I go over the first 40 countries, he’d check a box, and then I continued. That’s how my father would test me. Let’s just say that my knowledge of geography comes from back then.
Like every single time when I needed the money, I did that. And for example, I go over the first 40 countries, he’d check a box, and then I continued. That’s how my father would test me. Let’s just say that my knowledge of geography comes from back then.
Lex Fridman
Did you realize how big the world was?
Did you realize how big the world was?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
As a child, you don’t understand?
As a child, you don’t understand?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
At that time, I didn’t understand. But since then, I’ve had this desire to travel. I really wanted to travel, visit different countries, see wonders of the world, the Colosseum, the pyramids. But all of this is from childhood, from what I read and wrote. It wasn’t just about reading. I also had to rewrite it. I had to write it down. I always wrote down what I read. And actually, this is very good advice for parents, you know. They can use this with their children too. They can tell them to sit down and copy books by hand. First of all, eyesight improves. Reading improves. Writing, how you write improves. Your handwriting. And it stays with you when you read and write. It really develops a child. Not only I believe that, I actually do advise parents to motivate their kids this way.
At that time, I didn’t understand. But since then, I’ve had this desire to travel. I really wanted to travel, visit different countries, see wonders of the world, the Colosseum, the pyramids. But all of this is from childhood, from what I read and wrote. It wasn’t just about reading. I also had to rewrite it. I had to write it down. I always wrote down what I read. And actually, this is very good advice for parents, you know. They can use this with their children too. They can tell them to sit down and copy books by hand. First of all, eyesight improves. Reading improves. Writing, how you write improves. Your handwriting. And it stays with you when you read and write. It really develops a child. Not only I believe that, I actually do advise parents to motivate their kids this way.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You can simply create some kind of challenge that children benefit from and reward them for it after it is done. This really helps develop a child’s mind.
You can simply create some kind of challenge that children benefit from and reward them for it after it is done. This really helps develop a child’s mind.
Lex Fridman
I actually saw advice from the great writers who said that they remembered doing the same thing when they were young. When they first started writing, they just simply copied other legendary writers. You read their work and then you type it out yourself, and you start absorbing that style into your bloodstream.
I actually saw advice from the great writers who said that they remembered doing the same thing when they were young. When they first started writing, they just simply copied other legendary writers. You read their work and then you type it out yourself, and you start absorbing that style into your bloodstream.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, it needs to be done in childhood.
Well, it needs to be done in childhood.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
When the child is ready to learn and his mind is open, let’s say as a metaphor, when his table is clean, not occupied with clutter, then as a father, you can help them place all the right things on the table in their proper place. Let’s say put the food in one place, flowers in another, something like that. It is important. That’s why I believe I was very lucky. My father did the right thing. He provided me with the right kind of information, and I learned a lot just from being around him. I learned so much just from his presence. He was there at home, and then we also went to competitions. He was always there at trainings and at camps, so I absorbed a lot from him, and it was interesting for me too.
When the child is ready to learn and his mind is open, let’s say as a metaphor, when his table is clean, not occupied with clutter, then as a father, you can help them place all the right things on the table in their proper place. Let’s say put the food in one place, flowers in another, something like that. It is important. That’s why I believe I was very lucky. My father did the right thing. He provided me with the right kind of information, and I learned a lot just from being around him. I learned so much just from his presence. He was there at home, and then we also went to competitions. He was always there at trainings and at camps, so I absorbed a lot from him, and it was interesting for me too.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Of course, when you’re a teenager, sometimes you’re tired, sometimes you want to break free. All of that was there. But my father had the right approach. He influenced me a lot and in the right way.
Of course, when you’re a teenager, sometimes you’re tired, sometimes you want to break free. All of that was there. But my father had the right approach. He influenced me a lot and in the right way.
Lex Fridman
And there’s the physical component too of hard work. There’s a story you told about the time he made you dig a big hole just because it was difficult. There’s wisdom in that. That you just need to work. You need to stay busy all the time.
And there’s the physical component too of hard work. There’s a story you told about the time he made you dig a big hole just because it was difficult. There’s wisdom in that. That you just need to work. You need to stay busy all the time.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
These were training camps from two thousand and five to two thousand and seven. In the summer, we went to the mountains. There was a children’s camp there, an old Soviet-style pioneer camp where we stayed doing our runs in the forest. Together, we built a small training area there with a rope, a punching bag, a pull-up bar. We did sprints there. We pulled resistance bands. After running in the mountains, we would come back and work there. There were almost no mats. We built the base ourselves. It had a dining room on the first floor and an attic space where we slept. We would come downstairs, eat, go outside, train in that little sports area, then run in the forest. It was somewhere around twelve hundred meters above sea level, a conifer forest. We spent the whole summer there.
These were training camps from two thousand and five to two thousand and seven. In the summer, we went to the mountains. There was a children’s camp there, an old Soviet-style pioneer camp where we stayed doing our runs in the forest. Together, we built a small training area there with a rope, a punching bag, a pull-up bar. We did sprints there. We pulled resistance bands. After running in the mountains, we would come back and work there. There were almost no mats. We built the base ourselves. It had a dining room on the first floor and an attic space where we slept. We would come downstairs, eat, go outside, train in that little sports area, then run in the forest. It was somewhere around twelve hundred meters above sea level, a conifer forest. We spent the whole summer there.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
There we’d train in the morning, then there was nothing to do all day, and in the evening we had training sessions again. But during the day, so we wouldn’t be busy with unnecessary things, my father sometimes gave us work. And we’d ask, “Why are we digging this pit?” He’d say, “Well, people used to use it like a refrigerator. When you dig two or three meters down, it is cold inside. You can put milk there, cheese, things like that, so the food does not go bad.” And we were like, “Okay, but do we really need these refrigerators every day?” So in that sense, this was his approach back then. He always had this kind of unique approach.
There we’d train in the morning, then there was nothing to do all day, and in the evening we had training sessions again. But during the day, so we wouldn’t be busy with unnecessary things, my father sometimes gave us work. And we’d ask, “Why are we digging this pit?” He’d say, “Well, people used to use it like a refrigerator. When you dig two or three meters down, it is cold inside. You can put milk there, cheese, things like that, so the food does not go bad.” And we were like, “Okay, but do we really need these refrigerators every day?” So in that sense, this was his approach back then. He always had this kind of unique approach.
Lex Fridman
Well, what’s the philosophy here? That you gotta be busy all the time, working hard, doing something difficult.
Well, what’s the philosophy here? That you gotta be busy all the time, working hard, doing something difficult.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, it’s very dangerous to give a child free time in adolescence. They should always be busy learning new information, improving, acquiring new skills. A person should always be busy. When you’re sixteen, well, what can be on your mind? You should constantly develop and improve. And by this time, you should already, I believe, have decided what you want to become. You should already be investing in what you want to turn into.
Yes, it’s very dangerous to give a child free time in adolescence. They should always be busy learning new information, improving, acquiring new skills. A person should always be busy. When you’re sixteen, well, what can be on your mind? You should constantly develop and improve. And by this time, you should already, I believe, have decided what you want to become. You should already be investing in what you want to turn into.
Street fights in Dagestan
Lex Fridman
By the way, you had several very good conversations with Nurlan, with Adam, which I highly recommend. In one of them, your brother Abubakar told a story that when you were young, there were several street fights, maybe many, I don’t know. He said he was the one who got you into it. You were kind of bigger, and he needed protection at that time. You were that protection. Can you tell us these stories? How often did you fight on the streets of Dagestan?
By the way, you had several very good conversations with Nurlan, with Adam, which I highly recommend. In one of them, your brother Abubakar told a story that when you were young, there were several street fights, maybe many, I don’t know. He said he was the one who got you into it. You were kind of bigger, and he needed protection at that time. You were that protection. Can you tell us these stories? How often did you fight on the streets of Dagestan?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, let’s start with the fact that I never bullied anyone. Never. Although I physically could bully, yes, let’s say I had the capability. I wasn’t the kind of person who started the fights.
Well, let’s start with the fact that I never bullied anyone. Never. Although I physically could bully, yes, let’s say I had the capability. I wasn’t the kind of person who started the fights.
Lex Fridman
You didn’t start?
You didn’t start?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I didn’t. Well-
I didn’t. Well-
Lex Fridman
Tried to finish.
Tried to finish.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, maybe there were some moments, but mostly no. Mostly I didn’t start. Abubakar, sure, he was like that. In my circle, I had some guys who were a little bit like that.
Well, maybe there were some moments, but mostly no. Mostly I didn’t start. Abubakar, sure, he was like that. In my circle, I had some guys who were a little bit like that.
Lex Fridman
He said that he’s a bit of-
He said that he’s a bit of-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
He was a troublemaker.
He was a troublemaker.
Lex Fridman
Yes, yes.
Yes, yes.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
He was a troublemaker, and because of him, I got into trouble many times. When you’re, let’s say, fourteen, fifteen years old and your brother is fighting, you don’t really ask who’s right or who’s wrong. You just go in, you start to, as we say, you interfere. You just have to go in, right? But when you’re older, more conscious, when you’re twenty, twenty-five or thirty years old, this is when you really start telling him, “You know, Abubakar, I think you’re wrong here. Yes, we’ll finish this right now, but in the future, I wouldn’t want you to get involved because I think it’s wrong, right?” Well, as kids, we just didn’t ask. We just went right in.
He was a troublemaker, and because of him, I got into trouble many times. When you’re, let’s say, fourteen, fifteen years old and your brother is fighting, you don’t really ask who’s right or who’s wrong. You just go in, you start to, as we say, you interfere. You just have to go in, right? But when you’re older, more conscious, when you’re twenty, twenty-five or thirty years old, this is when you really start telling him, “You know, Abubakar, I think you’re wrong here. Yes, we’ll finish this right now, but in the future, I wouldn’t want you to get involved because I think it’s wrong, right?” Well, as kids, we just didn’t ask. We just went right in.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
When we moved to Makhachkala in the nineteen ninety-nine, let’s say the end of nineteen ninety-nine, so there were– we were many brothers, more than ten of us. We lived in one house. Some were in school, some in college, some in university. But we all had one routine. We trained in the morning, then went to school. We’d come home, rest, do homework, then train in the evening, come home and rest without mothers, just by ourselves. Father gathered everyone. He took in close friends and family, his nephews, cousins, relatives, those who didn’t have a father, and so on. He took them in, and we all lived in one house. We cooked, cleaned, did laundry all by ourselves. It was like, well, some kind of army life, you know?
When we moved to Makhachkala in the nineteen ninety-nine, let’s say the end of nineteen ninety-nine, so there were– we were many brothers, more than ten of us. We lived in one house. Some were in school, some in college, some in university. But we all had one routine. We trained in the morning, then went to school. We’d come home, rest, do homework, then train in the evening, come home and rest without mothers, just by ourselves. Father gathered everyone. He took in close friends and family, his nephews, cousins, relatives, those who didn’t have a father, and so on. He took them in, and we all lived in one house. We cooked, cleaned, did laundry all by ourselves. It was like, well, some kind of army life, you know?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And when the brothers had some problems, let’s say misunderstandings, we didn’t go easy on those guys. And even those who lived around there near that house, in that district, in the settlement, everyone knew that there were lots of brothers living there. So they had to be careful. And we had a football field there. It was right in front of the house, and everyone who came to play there, we constantly had fights there, misunderstandings. There were older brothers. They were always watching us, keeping us from trouble. “Don’t do this. Don’t do that. Watch your mouth.” But we had our own little group. The age difference between us was maybe two, three years. There were five or six of us. We’d always go outside and play football.
And when the brothers had some problems, let’s say misunderstandings, we didn’t go easy on those guys. And even those who lived around there near that house, in that district, in the settlement, everyone knew that there were lots of brothers living there. So they had to be careful. And we had a football field there. It was right in front of the house, and everyone who came to play there, we constantly had fights there, misunderstandings. There were older brothers. They were always watching us, keeping us from trouble. “Don’t do this. Don’t do that. Watch your mouth.” But we had our own little group. The age difference between us was maybe two, three years. There were five or six of us. We’d always go outside and play football.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
If our team was losing, then the game would just turn into a whole different sport, and that’s how we were growing up. We spent six, seven years there, almost ten years. We were living together, growing, training. A lot has happened over that time, but I was never… Well, maybe just a couple of times, okay? Mostly, I was never the initiator of fights with some exceptions. I just remember since childhood, my father always told me, “You don’t need to use force on the street.” My father looked at all of this in a completely different way.
If our team was losing, then the game would just turn into a whole different sport, and that’s how we were growing up. We spent six, seven years there, almost ten years. We were living together, growing, training. A lot has happened over that time, but I was never… Well, maybe just a couple of times, okay? Mostly, I was never the initiator of fights with some exceptions. I just remember since childhood, my father always told me, “You don’t need to use force on the street.” My father looked at all of this in a completely different way.
Lex Fridman
What is your understanding of the difference between the street fight and sports?
What is your understanding of the difference between the street fight and sports?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
There is a very big difference. I saw many fights where if you put those same guys into sparring, in wrestling, MMA or combat Sambo, one guy could beat the other very easily. But the street is completely different. There are no rules, no referees, no points. You just fight there, and it’s totally different. I can say I actually had a major turning point in my life. Let’s say the one that, in terms of psychology, really changed my whole attitude towards MMA.
There is a very big difference. I saw many fights where if you put those same guys into sparring, in wrestling, MMA or combat Sambo, one guy could beat the other very easily. But the street is completely different. There are no rules, no referees, no points. You just fight there, and it’s totally different. I can say I actually had a major turning point in my life. Let’s say the one that, in terms of psychology, really changed my whole attitude towards MMA.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Back in twenty oh two, twenty oh three, my father kept me in wrestling. He trained MMA combat Sambo, but wanted me to stay in wrestling. My cousin, who was older than me by a couple of months, he was training with my father. His freestyle wrestling was weak, so my father sent him to me, to the place where I was training. It was called the School of Higher Sports Mastery. The local guys from the city know this place. He came to practice and got into it with a guy in our gym who was heavier, maybe one class heavier. This guy was the best in his weight, winning Dagestan and the city too. So they got into a conflict. They were arguing. My brother had just joined. He was new to our freestyle wrestling gym, right? But I knew the other guy well. They paired up and they got into it.
Back in twenty oh two, twenty oh three, my father kept me in wrestling. He trained MMA combat Sambo, but wanted me to stay in wrestling. My cousin, who was older than me by a couple of months, he was training with my father. His freestyle wrestling was weak, so my father sent him to me, to the place where I was training. It was called the School of Higher Sports Mastery. The local guys from the city know this place. He came to practice and got into it with a guy in our gym who was heavier, maybe one class heavier. This guy was the best in his weight, winning Dagestan and the city too. So they got into a conflict. They were arguing. My brother had just joined. He was new to our freestyle wrestling gym, right? But I knew the other guy well. They paired up and they got into it.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, that’s my brother, right? So the guy goes, “Let’s meet up after.” And they agreed, as we say, to step outside after the training. I remember it was raining heavily, a real downpour. The guy brought his brother. I came with mine. We went outside and they started fighting one-on-one. I remember he shot in, lifted and took him down. Abdurakhman, my brother, threw up a triangle and he choked him out. When we went out, I was thinking Abdurakhman will lose to this guy. I even visualized it happening, the whole thing. Like, this guy beats him, and then I start fighting. Well, I’m not going there for my brother to lose. In my head, I was getting into a fight. But he threw him locked up in a triangle.
Well, that’s my brother, right? So the guy goes, “Let’s meet up after.” And they agreed, as we say, to step outside after the training. I remember it was raining heavily, a real downpour. The guy brought his brother. I came with mine. We went outside and they started fighting one-on-one. I remember he shot in, lifted and took him down. Abdurakhman, my brother, threw up a triangle and he choked him out. When we went out, I was thinking Abdurakhman will lose to this guy. I even visualized it happening, the whole thing. Like, this guy beats him, and then I start fighting. Well, I’m not going there for my brother to lose. In my head, I was getting into a fight. But he threw him locked up in a triangle.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
For the first time, I saw with my own eyes how someone chokes another person with a triangle and they lose consciousness.
For the first time, I saw with my own eyes how someone chokes another person with a triangle and they lose consciousness.
Lex Fridman
Wow.
Wow.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
They fought, he put him to sleep. We had to pull them apart, me and other guys. Fights over, Abdurrahman won. And on the way home, I’m like, “Abdurrahman, wow. You impress me.” I came home and immediately told my father. I said… That was in 2002 or ’03, if I’m not mistaken. I am 14 years old. I said, “I’m switching to combat Sambo.” I said, “What Abdurrahman did, the one he choked out, he’s not just anyone in the gym. He’s one of the best wrestlers, but he couldn’t do anything.” My father said, “You’ll go to wrestling, but you’ll come to me, I’ll teach you. You’ll learn techniques here and so on. But I want you to gain wrestling skills.” I started going three days to train with my father, three days to wrestling.
They fought, he put him to sleep. We had to pull them apart, me and other guys. Fights over, Abdurrahman won. And on the way home, I’m like, “Abdurrahman, wow. You impress me.” I came home and immediately told my father. I said… That was in 2002 or ’03, if I’m not mistaken. I am 14 years old. I said, “I’m switching to combat Sambo.” I said, “What Abdurrahman did, the one he choked out, he’s not just anyone in the gym. He’s one of the best wrestlers, but he couldn’t do anything.” My father said, “You’ll go to wrestling, but you’ll come to me, I’ll teach you. You’ll learn techniques here and so on. But I want you to gain wrestling skills.” I started going three days to train with my father, three days to wrestling.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And at that moment, I realized that no matter how strong the wrestler is, lying on the back is where the wrestling normally ends, but MMA only begins there. And I was like, I thought, “I need this. I need this mixed style.” I realized this was for me. I started going to my father’s trainings, despite that he didn’t let me. He didn’t want me to do fighting. I think most people don’t know this. My father wanted me to do freestyle wrestling or judo, but in my head, I already had this mixed style. I always wanted to compete. I was already getting tapes to watch. I always wanted to compete where there are no rules, where I could fully use my skills.
And at that moment, I realized that no matter how strong the wrestler is, lying on the back is where the wrestling normally ends, but MMA only begins there. And I was like, I thought, “I need this. I need this mixed style.” I realized this was for me. I started going to my father’s trainings, despite that he didn’t let me. He didn’t want me to do fighting. I think most people don’t know this. My father wanted me to do freestyle wrestling or judo, but in my head, I already had this mixed style. I always wanted to compete. I was already getting tapes to watch. I always wanted to compete where there are no rules, where I could fully use my skills.
Lex Fridman
Maximum freedom.
Maximum freedom.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, judo, Sambo, freestyle, grappling, jujitsu. More people knew jujitsu than grappling. After that, I switched, and from there my journey slowly started, which I had already begun. That’s when I started the amateur journey. Then when I started getting good results as an amateur, I realized that I can switch to pro and achieve success. Sambo. In combat Sambo. Combat Sambo. I competed in all kinds of sports. Everything that involves wrestling and fighting. I competed everywhere. I competed in freestyle, in judo, in grappling, in combat Sambo. I competed in sport Sambo, in hand-to-hand combat, in pankration. My father put me in all competitions. He would say, “You have a competition here and another one there. Now you are preparing for this one.
Yes, judo, Sambo, freestyle, grappling, jujitsu. More people knew jujitsu than grappling. After that, I switched, and from there my journey slowly started, which I had already begun. That’s when I started the amateur journey. Then when I started getting good results as an amateur, I realized that I can switch to pro and achieve success. Sambo. In combat Sambo. Combat Sambo. I competed in all kinds of sports. Everything that involves wrestling and fighting. I competed everywhere. I competed in freestyle, in judo, in grappling, in combat Sambo. I competed in sport Sambo, in hand-to-hand combat, in pankration. My father put me in all competitions. He would say, “You have a competition here and another one there. Now you are preparing for this one.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You will compete in this weight, under these rules, in this sport.” And he was sending me everywhere. He would tell me, “You will need this in the future. The more competition experience you have, the more relaxed and confident you’ll feel. It builds up over time.” When I was young, I was losing as well. I go to a judo competition, win two matches and lose two matches. I would ask, “Father, why are you sending me there? This is not my sport.” And he’d say, “No, go and compete.” So, okay, I went, I cut weight. The next day you come in, you see 50 competitors in your weight class. You let this weight, this competitive energy pass through you, and psychologically you get better, better, better each time. You become more relaxed about it.
You will compete in this weight, under these rules, in this sport.” And he was sending me everywhere. He would tell me, “You will need this in the future. The more competition experience you have, the more relaxed and confident you’ll feel. It builds up over time.” When I was young, I was losing as well. I go to a judo competition, win two matches and lose two matches. I would ask, “Father, why are you sending me there? This is not my sport.” And he’d say, “No, go and compete.” So, okay, I went, I cut weight. The next day you come in, you see 50 competitors in your weight class. You let this weight, this competitive energy pass through you, and psychologically you get better, better, better each time. You become more relaxed about it.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And this moment really affected me, although then I didn’t agree with my father. Back then I thought, “Why should I compete in other sports?” He said, “You can wrestle, right? Well, go wrestle.” I was saying, “But judo isn’t my sport. It’s hard for me there.” He says, “Well, you went on four times. Look, you won twice, then lost twice. You competed four times. You’re 15 years old. You’re just developing. Do you know how valuable this experience is for you? Four matches in one day.” Now when I’m coaching, I understand the psychological approach, how important it is. I realize now how correctly he prepared me for the big stage. The preparation was already happening then when I was 15 years old.
And this moment really affected me, although then I didn’t agree with my father. Back then I thought, “Why should I compete in other sports?” He said, “You can wrestle, right? Well, go wrestle.” I was saying, “But judo isn’t my sport. It’s hard for me there.” He says, “Well, you went on four times. Look, you won twice, then lost twice. You competed four times. You’re 15 years old. You’re just developing. Do you know how valuable this experience is for you? Four matches in one day.” Now when I’m coaching, I understand the psychological approach, how important it is. I realize now how correctly he prepared me for the big stage. The preparation was already happening then when I was 15 years old.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
For example, when I went into the biggest fight in combat sports history, when I fought in 2018 here in Las Vegas. At that point, I was already at my peak, prime time. I was 30 years old. I went through all possible competitions as an amateur and a professional. And you know what? I was ready. This preparation, it started back then when I was 15. It’s not like they give you a fight and you prepare for two months. Preparation starts long before you even step into the octagon.
For example, when I went into the biggest fight in combat sports history, when I fought in 2018 here in Las Vegas. At that point, I was already at my peak, prime time. I was 30 years old. I went through all possible competitions as an amateur and a professional. And you know what? I was ready. This preparation, it started back then when I was 15. It’s not like they give you a fight and you prepare for two months. Preparation starts long before you even step into the octagon.
Lex Fridman
So this experience of competitions, which started at 15, it continued, it expanded.
So this experience of competitions, which started at 15, it continued, it expanded.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, of course.
Yeah, of course.
Lex Fridman
So can you explain what was going on in your head?
So can you explain what was going on in your head?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I didn’t want to lose. I just didn’t. It never occurred to me that I could get hurt, that someone could hurt me, that I might break a finger somewhere. I never had that in my head, that I could get hit, that I’d get a scratch, and so on. I don’t know if you can call it perfectionism. I didn’t want to lose. And to not lose, I knew I needed to compete a lot and improve. Training is one thing, but competing is different. I understood that the more I competed, the more experience I would gain. I had to go through it. It was constantly on my mind. This understanding that I must compete a lot came to me at an early age, since I was fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, and I never stopped thinking about it. So it was always in the back of my mind.
I didn’t want to lose. I just didn’t. It never occurred to me that I could get hurt, that someone could hurt me, that I might break a finger somewhere. I never had that in my head, that I could get hit, that I’d get a scratch, and so on. I don’t know if you can call it perfectionism. I didn’t want to lose. And to not lose, I knew I needed to compete a lot and improve. Training is one thing, but competing is different. I understood that the more I competed, the more experience I would gain. I had to go through it. It was constantly on my mind. This understanding that I must compete a lot came to me at an early age, since I was fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, and I never stopped thinking about it. So it was always in the back of my mind.
Khabib’s top pressure
Lex Fridman
Were you confident that you would win?
Were you confident that you would win?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
In my youth? No.
In my youth? No.
Lex Fridman
Were you afraid to lose?
Were you afraid to lose?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, in my youth, I wasn’t always so sure. I just wasn’t. Because I never stood out. Yes, I had a coach for a father, and how many, how many trainers have kids who compete but aren’t successful? And then when I went to the big leagues, you know, I had already fought. I had done sixteen professional fights across the post-Soviet space. Later, when I was already signed to the UFC, there I already had this feeling. You know, with each fight, I was getting mentally stronger. My mind was becoming more and more solid, like concrete. When I went out there, I knew, yes, these are fights. Yes, you can take a hit. Yes, anything can happen when knees, elbows, fists are flying, when you can get caught in a choke, you know? But I thought, “If they don’t knock me out, how will they beat me?
Yeah, in my youth, I wasn’t always so sure. I just wasn’t. Because I never stood out. Yes, I had a coach for a father, and how many, how many trainers have kids who compete but aren’t successful? And then when I went to the big leagues, you know, I had already fought. I had done sixteen professional fights across the post-Soviet space. Later, when I was already signed to the UFC, there I already had this feeling. You know, with each fight, I was getting mentally stronger. My mind was becoming more and more solid, like concrete. When I went out there, I knew, yes, these are fights. Yes, you can take a hit. Yes, anything can happen when knees, elbows, fists are flying, when you can get caught in a choke, you know? But I thought, “If they don’t knock me out, how will they beat me?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I have fifteen minutes. Fifteen minutes is enough to make a person tired.” I’m like, “Okay, if you wanna stop me, come here. I’ll give you that chance. Let’s get in the octagon.” I had this impatience during fight week. I wanted to go in there and feel my opponent. I just wanted to be inside the cage for them to close us in, for the referee to say, “Ready? Ready. Fight.” And here I wanted to feel, to grapple with him and feel his strength, his skills, his energy, and for it not to stop. And with any opponent I felt from the beginning, and I didn’t actually have superhuman strength. But from the beginning, when I grabbed them in the first minute and then in the sixth or seventh minute, I could feel them fading.
I have fifteen minutes. Fifteen minutes is enough to make a person tired.” I’m like, “Okay, if you wanna stop me, come here. I’ll give you that chance. Let’s get in the octagon.” I had this impatience during fight week. I wanted to go in there and feel my opponent. I just wanted to be inside the cage for them to close us in, for the referee to say, “Ready? Ready. Fight.” And here I wanted to feel, to grapple with him and feel his strength, his skills, his energy, and for it not to stop. And with any opponent I felt from the beginning, and I didn’t actually have superhuman strength. But from the beginning, when I grabbed them in the first minute and then in the sixth or seventh minute, I could feel them fading.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I was, let’s say, like squeezing this energy out of them, and I was getting better and better minute by minute.
I was, let’s say, like squeezing this energy out of them, and I was getting better and better minute by minute.
Lex Fridman
Can you break down the technical details of your top pressure? That pressure you put on in wrestling, on the ground, all of it. How does it work? Can you explain the philosophy behind it?
Can you break down the technical details of your top pressure? That pressure you put on in wrestling, on the ground, all of it. How does it work? Can you explain the philosophy behind it?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Over the years, I’ve learned to use my strength properly. There’s this sport called aikido. I don’t like it much, but I like their philosophy, where your strength might work against you. I think for a lot of listeners, this is gonna be a brand-new sport. But there is this sport called aikido, and the whole philosophy behind it is using your opponent’s force against them. That’s what I learned to do. And I have learned to force an opponent into positions where they have to escape, wasting their energy. Like when we were sparring yesterday.
Over the years, I’ve learned to use my strength properly. There’s this sport called aikido. I don’t like it much, but I like their philosophy, where your strength might work against you. I think for a lot of listeners, this is gonna be a brand-new sport. But there is this sport called aikido, and the whole philosophy behind it is using your opponent’s force against them. That’s what I learned to do. And I have learned to force an opponent into positions where they have to escape, wasting their energy. Like when we were sparring yesterday.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
That’s exactly what I wanted. I wanted you to feel that energy, that heavy top pressure. We could have just played around. I could have gone easy on you, but I wanted you to feel the real heavy pressure. And of course, please don’t think it was a sign of disrespect. It’s quite the opposite.
That’s exactly what I wanted. I wanted you to feel that energy, that heavy top pressure. We could have just played around. I could have gone easy on you, but I wanted you to feel the real heavy pressure. And of course, please don’t think it was a sign of disrespect. It’s quite the opposite.
Lex Fridman
No, it was respect.
No, it was respect.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I just wanted you to feel that, you know, how exhausting it can be. I think you felt it yourself that it was a bit different from the kind of grappling you’ve dealt with before. I’m sure of it.
I just wanted you to feel that, you know, how exhausting it can be. I think you felt it yourself that it was a bit different from the kind of grappling you’ve dealt with before. I’m sure of it.
Lex Fridman
The only one who’s even close to that is, I mean, you’re the absolute number one. But the only thing is, when I trained with Roger Gracie in a different sport, you get that same feeling with him. Like, the guy is just insanely heavy.
The only one who’s even close to that is, I mean, you’re the absolute number one. But the only thing is, when I trained with Roger Gracie in a different sport, you get that same feeling with him. Like, the guy is just insanely heavy.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Mm-hmm. Pressure. Pressure. Well, Roger, he’s the greatest, too. He’s the greatest in his own sport. What makes a person unique is his style, his style and his approach to his work. I always approach my craft very professionally, you know, respectfully. I believe that if you’re gonna be in this game, in this sport, you have to completely dedicate yourself to it.
Mm-hmm. Pressure. Pressure. Well, Roger, he’s the greatest, too. He’s the greatest in his own sport. What makes a person unique is his style, his style and his approach to his work. I always approach my craft very professionally, you know, respectfully. I believe that if you’re gonna be in this game, in this sport, you have to completely dedicate yourself to it.
Lex Fridman
But I think you had a deep understanding of how to break an opponent, both physically and psychologically, just looking at your style.
But I think you had a deep understanding of how to break an opponent, both physically and psychologically, just looking at your style.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I’ve always been right there, always fighting for position. I always– Look, I mean that I just always had this thought in my head. My grandfather always told me, “A dog that latches onto that one weak spot always wins.” It’s the same with a fighter. When you’re fighting on pure instinct, you feel your opponent’s weakness. You know where they’re weak, and you have to keep pressing right there. For example, let’s say I’m fighting Conor, right? His strengths are his striking, his timing and his speed, his boxing. Why would I stand and strike with him? What am I supposed to do? I have to put pressure on his weak spot. So that’s what separates the fighters who reach success, the highest level of success, and become the best of the best.
I’ve always been right there, always fighting for position. I always– Look, I mean that I just always had this thought in my head. My grandfather always told me, “A dog that latches onto that one weak spot always wins.” It’s the same with a fighter. When you’re fighting on pure instinct, you feel your opponent’s weakness. You know where they’re weak, and you have to keep pressing right there. For example, let’s say I’m fighting Conor, right? His strengths are his striking, his timing and his speed, his boxing. Why would I stand and strike with him? What am I supposed to do? I have to put pressure on his weak spot. So that’s what separates the fighters who reach success, the highest level of success, and become the best of the best.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
They know how to find an opponent’s weakness, and they pressure it relentlessly. So it all comes down to having the right strategy here.
They know how to find an opponent’s weakness, and they pressure it relentlessly. So it all comes down to having the right strategy here.
Khabib vs Conor McGregor
Lex Fridman
Your fight with Conor, I think, was the biggest fight in UFC history. That’s for sure. Well, actually, in all of sports. Do you think there will ever be another fight of that magnitude in the UFC? Is it even possible?
Your fight with Conor, I think, was the biggest fight in UFC history. That’s for sure. Well, actually, in all of sports. Do you think there will ever be another fight of that magnitude in the UFC? Is it even possible?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, let’s look at the history here. I mean, our sport is still very young, say thirty-five years old, starting from the ’90s. Put it this way. Take, for example, the sport most similar to MMA, which is, well, let’s say boxing. How old is boxing? A hundred and fifty years? Like, when you think boxing, what pops into your head? Thrilla in Manila?
Well, let’s look at the history here. I mean, our sport is still very young, say thirty-five years old, starting from the ’90s. Put it this way. Take, for example, the sport most similar to MMA, which is, well, let’s say boxing. How old is boxing? A hundred and fifty years? Like, when you think boxing, what pops into your head? Thrilla in Manila?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah. Well, I love Mike Tyson a lot too, so.
Yeah, yeah. Well, I love Mike Tyson a lot too, so.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, Tyson had big fights, but Mike Tyson never had that signature rival like Muhammad Ali had in Joe Frazier. Yeah, he just didn’t have one. I mean, who do we have? Evander Holyfield? Look, Holyfield-Tyson is no Muhammad Ali. Take Ali and Frazier, Thrilla in Manila, right? People called it the greatest rivalry, and it still is. In the 20th century, there was nothing that could compare. In the 21st century, the only thing you could compare to it, purely based on the numbers, is Pacquiao and Mayweather. Yes, there was public interest, but there wasn’t the energy that there was with Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier.
Well, Tyson had big fights, but Mike Tyson never had that signature rival like Muhammad Ali had in Joe Frazier. Yeah, he just didn’t have one. I mean, who do we have? Evander Holyfield? Look, Holyfield-Tyson is no Muhammad Ali. Take Ali and Frazier, Thrilla in Manila, right? People called it the greatest rivalry, and it still is. In the 20th century, there was nothing that could compare. In the 21st century, the only thing you could compare to it, purely based on the numbers, is Pacquiao and Mayweather. Yes, there was public interest, but there wasn’t the energy that there was with Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, if I can just pause for a second, I’ll check on Perplexity. List the biggest boxing fights of all time. It’s Ali and Frazier, like you said.
Yeah, if I can just pause for a second, I’ll check on Perplexity. List the biggest boxing fights of all time. It’s Ali and Frazier, like you said.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
The first, the third.
The first, the third.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, when he lost, and then the third fight, the Thrilla in Manila.
Well, when he lost, and then the third fight, the Thrilla in Manila.
Lex Fridman
And Foreman, I must say Ali versus Foreman.
And Foreman, I must say Ali versus Foreman.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, Foreman, that was the year, I think, ’74, right?
Well, Foreman, that was the year, I think, ’74, right?
Lex Fridman
The fight was watched by up to a billion people worldwide.
The fight was watched by up to a billion people worldwide.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was one of those things. Politics got mixed into it too. Well, it was actually a very big fight.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was one of those things. Politics got mixed into it too. Well, it was actually a very big fight.
Lex Fridman
Sugar Ray Leonard, Duran, Sugar Ray Leonard versus Thomas Hearns, Hagler versus Hearns.
Sugar Ray Leonard, Duran, Sugar Ray Leonard versus Thomas Hearns, Hagler versus Hearns.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, Hagler. Hagler and Duran in Montreal. Sugar Ray Leonard and Duran in Montreal when they fought, when he admitted after the fight that he lost the mental game and broke down before the fight. But then Sugar Ray beat him later.
Well, Hagler. Hagler and Duran in Montreal. Sugar Ray Leonard and Duran in Montreal when they fought, when he admitted after the fight that he lost the mental game and broke down before the fight. But then Sugar Ray beat him later.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, he came back and won.
Yeah, he came back and won.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah. Well, if you look at it out of everything that stands out, I think you can mention Frazier and Muhammad Ali. And there was also Joe Louis against German Max Schmeling. Hitler stood behind Schmeling, and Roosevelt stood behind Louis. For those who don’t know this story, I just watched it recently. It was something incomparable. They were so big. They were two of the most famous athletes of their time. Roosevelt was promoting Joe Louis, you know? At that moment for America, it was like something incredible that a white president was promoting a Black world champion. And on the other hand, Hitler stood behind Schmeling.
Yeah. Well, if you look at it out of everything that stands out, I think you can mention Frazier and Muhammad Ali. And there was also Joe Louis against German Max Schmeling. Hitler stood behind Schmeling, and Roosevelt stood behind Louis. For those who don’t know this story, I just watched it recently. It was something incomparable. They were so big. They were two of the most famous athletes of their time. Roosevelt was promoting Joe Louis, you know? At that moment for America, it was like something incredible that a white president was promoting a Black world champion. And on the other hand, Hitler stood behind Schmeling.
Lex Fridman
It was what? Nineteen thirty-six, nineteen thirty-eight. They had-
It was what? Nineteen thirty-six, nineteen thirty-eight. They had-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
They fought twice?
They fought twice?
Lex Fridman
Twice.
Twice.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. They fought two times.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. They fought two times.
Lex Fridman
This wasn’t just a good boxing match, just a good fight. This was politics. Those were nations.
This wasn’t just a good boxing match, just a good fight. This was politics. Those were nations.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
This was politics. This was nations.
This was politics. This was nations.
Lex Fridman
Everything.
Everything.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It all came together.
It all came together.
Lex Fridman
And it’s the same thing with Ali too. Muhammad Ali with the Vietnam War, all that stuff. And his, and even religion is tied into it. Everything here came together.
And it’s the same thing with Ali too. Muhammad Ali with the Vietnam War, all that stuff. And his, and even religion is tied into it. Everything here came together.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
They simply went beyond sports. It was the exact same thing when I fought Conor. That fight went beyond our sport. It impacted every sport because athletes of all kinds of different sports, everyone who loves to compete, it didn’t matter if it was football, basketball, soccer, or boxing, everyone was following this. And honestly, will there be a fight like that? Well, it’s hard for me to say, but I think it’ll happen. It’ll happen for sure. There will always be champions. There will always be rivalries. But when it’ll happen, that’s just a matter of time.
They simply went beyond sports. It was the exact same thing when I fought Conor. That fight went beyond our sport. It impacted every sport because athletes of all kinds of different sports, everyone who loves to compete, it didn’t matter if it was football, basketball, soccer, or boxing, everyone was following this. And honestly, will there be a fight like that? Well, it’s hard for me to say, but I think it’ll happen. It’ll happen for sure. There will always be champions. There will always be rivalries. But when it’ll happen, that’s just a matter of time.
Lex Fridman
So it’s not entirely about the athletes. It’s about everything combined.
So it’s not entirely about the athletes. It’s about everything combined.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah. It’s everything combined. The way he talked, what he stirred up, the lines he crossed, touching on family, religion. And then somehow on one side you had Conor, this really interesting champion who knew how to hype himself up, and on the other side, you had this undefeated somebody from, from nowhere, from the mountains. You know how it is. It all somehow, all of it just kind of happened naturally. And it wasn’t staged. It was real. We had a real rivalry, unlike the way a lot of people now just hype up interest in a fight, but people feel that energy. It doesn’t go anywhere. People can tell what’s real and what’s fake. And because of that, we went beyond our own sport. That’s what made this fight so massive.
Yeah. It’s everything combined. The way he talked, what he stirred up, the lines he crossed, touching on family, religion. And then somehow on one side you had Conor, this really interesting champion who knew how to hype himself up, and on the other side, you had this undefeated somebody from, from nowhere, from the mountains. You know how it is. It all somehow, all of it just kind of happened naturally. And it wasn’t staged. It was real. We had a real rivalry, unlike the way a lot of people now just hype up interest in a fight, but people feel that energy. It doesn’t go anywhere. People can tell what’s real and what’s fake. And because of that, we went beyond our own sport. That’s what made this fight so massive.
Lex Fridman
Well, when you look into your heart back then and now, did you have anger? Did you have hatred for him?
Well, when you look into your heart back then and now, did you have anger? Did you have hatred for him?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Back then and even now, I’d still keep a cool head. Nothing has changed. When you let your emotions take over, when they’re off the charts and you completely lose control, that’s a very bad place to be. So you’ll tire out faster. You’ll fall. You’ll fall for any kind of bait and so on. I just knew that I needed to stay calm, composed, to stick to the plan no matter what happened, and not go beyond my emotional limits. This is a very, very dangerous moment when you give in to your emotions. You have to control them. Every single detail, every little thing has to be perfectly in place. The second you let it all slip, everything becomes a total mess. So once the fight was finally done, I just let all my emotions out.
Back then and even now, I’d still keep a cool head. Nothing has changed. When you let your emotions take over, when they’re off the charts and you completely lose control, that’s a very bad place to be. So you’ll tire out faster. You’ll fall. You’ll fall for any kind of bait and so on. I just knew that I needed to stay calm, composed, to stick to the plan no matter what happened, and not go beyond my emotional limits. This is a very, very dangerous moment when you give in to your emotions. You have to control them. Every single detail, every little thing has to be perfectly in place. The second you let it all slip, everything becomes a total mess. So once the fight was finally done, I just let all my emotions out.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I had to step right in and prove it, and punish him, and show them I’m better, that I’m better than him, and put a final end to this whole bitter rivalry. When all of that was over-
I had to step right in and prove it, and punish him, and show them I’m better, that I’m better than him, and put a final end to this whole bitter rivalry. When all of that was over-
Lex Fridman
Your emotions came out?
Your emotions came out?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
… that’s when my emotions just went over the edge. But until the fight was completely finished, starting from training, you know, at the press conferences, at the weigh-ins, everywhere, in front of the media, everywhere, I kept myself completely under control, and I was very good at it. Honestly, looking back it’s been almost eight years now. Looking back, well, I’m a little surprised. At that point, I was a very emotional guy, too. Over these eight years a lot has happened in my life, but I’m surprised that I kept it together. And well, you know, it wasn’t easy for me to keep myself within my limits, to keep myself under control like that. But here, again, I’ll come back to what I said, I was very lucky.
… that’s when my emotions just went over the edge. But until the fight was completely finished, starting from training, you know, at the press conferences, at the weigh-ins, everywhere, in front of the media, everywhere, I kept myself completely under control, and I was very good at it. Honestly, looking back it’s been almost eight years now. Looking back, well, I’m a little surprised. At that point, I was a very emotional guy, too. Over these eight years a lot has happened in my life, but I’m surprised that I kept it together. And well, you know, it wasn’t easy for me to keep myself within my limits, to keep myself under control like that. But here, again, I’ll come back to what I said, I was very lucky.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
My father called me at that time I was here two months before the fight. His advice helped me out so much because for me it was not just that it mattered, it was actually the most important thing for me back then just to know my father’s reaction, how he was taking everything that was happening, because there was just so much media coverage, so I knew my father was watching. It was important for me to know his take. I’d call and ask, and my father would even tell me things I hadn’t even asked him about. He’d bring it up on his own. Because you know the way it is with us, between me and my father, in our traditions, in our part of the world, in our family for generations, in our village, there’s just always this distance with your father.
My father called me at that time I was here two months before the fight. His advice helped me out so much because for me it was not just that it mattered, it was actually the most important thing for me back then just to know my father’s reaction, how he was taking everything that was happening, because there was just so much media coverage, so I knew my father was watching. It was important for me to know his take. I’d call and ask, and my father would even tell me things I hadn’t even asked him about. He’d bring it up on his own. Because you know the way it is with us, between me and my father, in our traditions, in our part of the world, in our family for generations, in our village, there’s just always this distance with your father.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Like, when you walk in, there are just so many things you can’t let yourself do in front of your father. You have to be like, sort of like a soldier in front of a general, right? If you can even make that comparison. If a soldier stands at attention like that, then with us it’s even stricter. Like even, just to give an example here. For instance, imagine you’re a father sitting there, right? And your two-year-old kid walks up to you and wants to play with you. You can’t even, like, do that baby talk thing with your own kid.
Like, when you walk in, there are just so many things you can’t let yourself do in front of your father. You have to be like, sort of like a soldier in front of a general, right? If you can even make that comparison. If a soldier stands at attention like that, then with us it’s even stricter. Like even, just to give an example here. For instance, imagine you’re a father sitting there, right? And your two-year-old kid walks up to you and wants to play with you. You can’t even, like, do that baby talk thing with your own kid.
Lex Fridman
You don’t have that kind of friendship.
You don’t have that kind of friendship.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You know it’s a friendship, but-
You know it’s a friendship, but-
Lex Fridman
It’s different, yes.
It’s different, yes.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
There’s a certain distance that you must keep around your father. You always have to be, like, completely buttoned up.
There’s a certain distance that you must keep around your father. You always have to be, like, completely buttoned up.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You have to stand like a soldier in front of your father. You don’t let your emotions take over. At that point, just to know what my father thought, who was, like, all the way across the ocean, who couldn’t just fly out and be there to support his son and just be there by my side. But for me, since he didn’t have a visa, I just had to know exactly what he thought. I didn’t care what anyone else thought. I didn’t care about the opinions of, like, millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions watching this fight. I only ever cared about one person and his take, what he thought and what he’d say to me. But I couldn’t call him and say, “Father, what do you think about this?” Well, we never had that. Well, you had to wait. I would just call and wait to hear what he’d say.
You have to stand like a soldier in front of your father. You don’t let your emotions take over. At that point, just to know what my father thought, who was, like, all the way across the ocean, who couldn’t just fly out and be there to support his son and just be there by my side. But for me, since he didn’t have a visa, I just had to know exactly what he thought. I didn’t care what anyone else thought. I didn’t care about the opinions of, like, millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions watching this fight. I only ever cared about one person and his take, what he thought and what he’d say to me. But I couldn’t call him and say, “Father, what do you think about this?” Well, we never had that. Well, you had to wait. I would just call and wait to hear what he’d say.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And my father, he knew exactly where to draw the line because he was in the exact same position with his own father since his own father was still around. And then he had a son, too, right? And he understood me, how I felt about him, since his relationship with his own father was the same way. And in that sense, back then, my father really kept me grounded mentally. He even told me, he even told me something once. Do you know how diamonds are, like, actually made? Under great pressure.
And my father, he knew exactly where to draw the line because he was in the exact same position with his own father since his own father was still around. And then he had a son, too, right? And he understood me, how I felt about him, since his relationship with his own father was the same way. And in that sense, back then, my father really kept me grounded mentally. He even told me, he even told me something once. Do you know how diamonds are, like, actually made? Under great pressure.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
He says, “You’re under great pressure, and you have a choice. You can break down and give up, or you can get through it all properly, clearly, with dignity. Go in, prepare right, make weight, recover, go in, win, and settle it once and for all.” And those exact kinds of moments, they really, they deeply impacted me.
He says, “You’re under great pressure, and you have a choice. You can break down and give up, or you can get through it all properly, clearly, with dignity. Go in, prepare right, make weight, recover, go in, win, and settle it once and for all.” And those exact kinds of moments, they really, they deeply impacted me.
Lex Fridman
So because of those words, you could cut everything off? Focus.
So because of those words, you could cut everything off? Focus.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well-
Well-
Lex Fridman
Mentally.
Mentally.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Mentally. Like, if a million people showed up right there and told me right outside where I was staying, at the hotel, right? Like, if a million people gathered right under my window and said, “Hey, we’ve got your back.” And honestly, just one call from my father, it wouldn’t even compare, because that one call from my father, that one piece of advice, his support, his voice, it charged me up way more than absolutely everything else combined.
Mentally. Like, if a million people showed up right there and told me right outside where I was staying, at the hotel, right? Like, if a million people gathered right under my window and said, “Hey, we’ve got your back.” And honestly, just one call from my father, it wouldn’t even compare, because that one call from my father, that one piece of advice, his support, his voice, it charged me up way more than absolutely everything else combined.
Lex Fridman
But I must say, José Aldo, who is one of the greatest fighters of all time, and still Conor was arguably able to psychologically break him. But with you, it seems like Conor was not able to mentally affect you. Did he manage to get into your head even a little?
But I must say, José Aldo, who is one of the greatest fighters of all time, and still Conor was arguably able to psychologically break him. But with you, it seems like Conor was not able to mentally affect you. Did he manage to get into your head even a little?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
No, not at all. I had a clear understanding that physically and mentally I was just way stronger than him. I didn’t doubt myself for even 1%. Well, people, they can say whatever they want. He’s got a massive fan base too. Maybe they won’t agree with that. But the Almighty gave me this unshakable confidence that is just really hard for me to even put into words. And I just deeply believe that I was better than him and that I was stronger than him, and that in this matchup, well, I was supposed to win. I just had this rock solid faith in myself.
No, not at all. I had a clear understanding that physically and mentally I was just way stronger than him. I didn’t doubt myself for even 1%. Well, people, they can say whatever they want. He’s got a massive fan base too. Maybe they won’t agree with that. But the Almighty gave me this unshakable confidence that is just really hard for me to even put into words. And I just deeply believe that I was better than him and that I was stronger than him, and that in this matchup, well, I was supposed to win. I just had this rock solid faith in myself.
Khabib’s toughest fight
Lex Fridman
Up until that moment, is it fair to say that this was your toughest fight?
Up until that moment, is it fair to say that this was your toughest fight?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Up until that moment?
Up until that moment?
Lex Fridman
Correct.
Correct.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
One hundred percent. Because fighting’s all psychology, you know? It’s a mental game. Mentally speaking, that was my toughest fight. At that point, yeah. But a tougher fight came later.
One hundred percent. Because fighting’s all psychology, you know? It’s a mental game. Mentally speaking, that was my toughest fight. At that point, yeah. But a tougher fight came later.
Lex Fridman
With Gaethje?
With Gaethje?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
With Gaethje.
With Gaethje.
Lex Fridman
There were a lot of factors that made it so tough.
There were a lot of factors that made it so tough.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
So can you explain? You said somewhere that actually, unfortunately, or at least from my perspective, unfortunately, we never got to see your absolute limit. Were you, uh-
So can you explain? You said somewhere that actually, unfortunately, or at least from my perspective, unfortunately, we never got to see your absolute limit. Were you, uh-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Not in fights, no. You’ve never seen my limit in fights.
Not in fights, no. You’ve never seen my limit in fights.
Lex Fridman
But you said that Gaethje was the closest to it ’cause of the whole process. Can you explain why it was a tough fight, your last one?
But you said that Gaethje was the closest to it ’cause of the whole process. Can you explain why it was a tough fight, your last one?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
First and foremost, it was because I had lost my father. It was hard to pull myself together. Everything piled up at once. My father was gone. And training without my father, without the person I was doing all of this for, the person I wanted to become champion for, first and foremost, to prove to him that I could become the best. And then the training camp itself, physically I was not in the best shape. I had injury after injury after injury. But mentally speaking, I stayed completely sharp. Well, this is when you got injuries, your mental game can slip a little, or things at home are going bad. All of that impacts a person. One, two, three, four. All these things affect you. You become, let’s say not sharp. You lose your fire.
First and foremost, it was because I had lost my father. It was hard to pull myself together. Everything piled up at once. My father was gone. And training without my father, without the person I was doing all of this for, the person I wanted to become champion for, first and foremost, to prove to him that I could become the best. And then the training camp itself, physically I was not in the best shape. I had injury after injury after injury. But mentally speaking, I stayed completely sharp. Well, this is when you got injuries, your mental game can slip a little, or things at home are going bad. All of that impacts a person. One, two, three, four. All these things affect you. You become, let’s say not sharp. You lose your fire.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Your fire leaves you, your focus leaves you, your head is somewhere else. Even though you are physically there, mentally you are somewhere else. But I always stayed there. I knew it. Nobody had any idea that was going to be my last fight. No one knew about the talk I had with my mother.
Your fire leaves you, your focus leaves you, your head is somewhere else. Even though you are physically there, mentally you are somewhere else. But I always stayed there. I knew it. Nobody had any idea that was going to be my last fight. No one knew about the talk I had with my mother.
Lex Fridman
But you knew and you were sure?
But you knew and you were sure?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, I knew for myself. This is my last fight. I was never going to step into the cage again. I knew it, and I had to finish it right then and there because putting myself through all of that yet again, it would have just been too hard on me if I got injured and the fight fell through. And putting my mother through all that stress again. I knew that all the anxiety I go through for three months leading up to a fight, my mother goes through it too. I understood all of that. I wanted to put an end to it because we’d already had that talk. We already had an agreement. All of that combined, I mean, mentally it just– I was, you know, I was right on the edge. Like, it was a fine line and I really was on the edge.
Well, I knew for myself. This is my last fight. I was never going to step into the cage again. I knew it, and I had to finish it right then and there because putting myself through all of that yet again, it would have just been too hard on me if I got injured and the fight fell through. And putting my mother through all that stress again. I knew that all the anxiety I go through for three months leading up to a fight, my mother goes through it too. I understood all of that. I wanted to put an end to it because we’d already had that talk. We already had an agreement. All of that combined, I mean, mentally it just– I was, you know, I was right on the edge. Like, it was a fine line and I really was on the edge.
Lex Fridman
And I heard or maybe read somewhere that you said you were already starting to miss it while the fight was still going on.
And I heard or maybe read somewhere that you said you were already starting to miss it while the fight was still going on.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, inside the octagon. I knew it would never happen again. I stepped in there and I just took it all in. I was fighting and just every single moment, every moment, every single move, I felt it deep down. And in my head, I already knew this was the final run. Everything I’d been doing my entire life, it all came down to this. That competitive rush, I’ll never feel that anywhere else. I knew deep down this was my last fight.
Yeah, inside the octagon. I knew it would never happen again. I stepped in there and I just took it all in. I was fighting and just every single moment, every moment, every single move, I felt it deep down. And in my head, I already knew this was the final run. Everything I’d been doing my entire life, it all came down to this. That competitive rush, I’ll never feel that anywhere else. I knew deep down this was my last fight.
Lex Fridman
What kind of feelings were those?
What kind of feelings were those?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I’ve never felt anything like that again. Those feelings could only be experienced right there on that exact day, that very evening, with that opponent inside that cage. I’ve never had them before that night and never had them since. And I don’t think I’ll ever be able to feel that way again. I think Buvaisar said that these feelings, standing on the podium, becoming an Olympic champion, you only feel them in that moment when they announce you. You step onto the podium. That’s it. They announced you. You won. You leave. That’s it. You only feel them there. You don’t feel them anywhere else. And athletes live for those feelings. They train their whole lives for them.
I’ve never felt anything like that again. Those feelings could only be experienced right there on that exact day, that very evening, with that opponent inside that cage. I’ve never had them before that night and never had them since. And I don’t think I’ll ever be able to feel that way again. I think Buvaisar said that these feelings, standing on the podium, becoming an Olympic champion, you only feel them in that moment when they announce you. You step onto the podium. That’s it. They announced you. You won. You leave. That’s it. You only feel them there. You don’t feel them anywhere else. And athletes live for those feelings. They train their whole lives for them.
Lex Fridman
Do you ever think about that? That in our lives, if we’re lucky, we only get maybe one or two moments like that at that absolute peak.
Do you ever think about that? That in our lives, if we’re lucky, we only get maybe one or two moments like that at that absolute peak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes. Yes. Yes. Very rarely. It’s so rare. What is happiness really? The way I see it is when you experience certain feelings for a very short time. You can’t be constantly happy. Like you achieve something and then you’re happy for years. It just doesn’t work that way. The Almighty didn’t build us that way. You get there even when you become a champion and you fully feel that moment, you win. And then you wake up the next morning and that’s it. Is that all I worked for? There’s nothing more like that. You know? Like, can I have seconds? You can’t have seconds. It’s like in our cafeteria. Can I have seconds? So well, you become champion, you win, then you wake up the next day. That’s it. Your daily routine continues. It doesn’t end.
Yes. Yes. Yes. Very rarely. It’s so rare. What is happiness really? The way I see it is when you experience certain feelings for a very short time. You can’t be constantly happy. Like you achieve something and then you’re happy for years. It just doesn’t work that way. The Almighty didn’t build us that way. You get there even when you become a champion and you fully feel that moment, you win. And then you wake up the next morning and that’s it. Is that all I worked for? There’s nothing more like that. You know? Like, can I have seconds? You can’t have seconds. It’s like in our cafeteria. Can I have seconds? So well, you become champion, you win, then you wake up the next day. That’s it. Your daily routine continues. It doesn’t end.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You’ve already got different things going on, different problems, other tasks now, and you’re like, “It all went by so fast.” Then you wake up the next day, pack your bags, head to the airport, fly out, land back home, everyone’s celebrating. And just like that, the next day everyone’s gone. That’s it. Everyone lives their own life. And well… But later on, there are moments, well, you know, when you still feel the impact of that success, let’s say. Like let’s say public recognition, for example, people’s recognition and recognition is legacy. A lot of people get it twisted when we start talking about legacy. What even is a legacy? What does legacy mean, right? For me personally, it is public recognition.
You’ve already got different things going on, different problems, other tasks now, and you’re like, “It all went by so fast.” Then you wake up the next day, pack your bags, head to the airport, fly out, land back home, everyone’s celebrating. And just like that, the next day everyone’s gone. That’s it. Everyone lives their own life. And well… But later on, there are moments, well, you know, when you still feel the impact of that success, let’s say. Like let’s say public recognition, for example, people’s recognition and recognition is legacy. A lot of people get it twisted when we start talking about legacy. What even is a legacy? What does legacy mean, right? For me personally, it is public recognition.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Like when people come up to you, like parents come up with their kid and they say, “You know, you inspire our son to get into sports. You’re a real role model for him.” And in that exact moment, it’s like you just– you start to realize that none of this was in vain. But here’s the thing. Does everyone approach every champion like that? Every successful person? Do people even come up to them at all? That’s the question. There are people who became champions. There are people who rose to the top of their field, but they just don’t inspire anyone.
Like when people come up to you, like parents come up with their kid and they say, “You know, you inspire our son to get into sports. You’re a real role model for him.” And in that exact moment, it’s like you just– you start to realize that none of this was in vain. But here’s the thing. Does everyone approach every champion like that? Every successful person? Do people even come up to them at all? That’s the question. There are people who became champions. There are people who rose to the top of their field, but they just don’t inspire anyone.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And well, people look at you like, “Yeah, you were a champion, you know, but nobody wants to be like you.” There are so many people like that who achieve success, but they, mm, they don’t inspire the younger generation because the youth, they look at you and they just don’t see you as a good person. And looking at it that way, sports, it’s such a double-edged sword.
And well, people look at you like, “Yeah, you were a champion, you know, but nobody wants to be like you.” There are so many people like that who achieve success, but they, mm, they don’t inspire the younger generation because the youth, they look at you and they just don’t see you as a good person. And looking at it that way, sports, it’s such a double-edged sword.
Lex Fridman
They lost themselves in it when they became champions. Or maybe they never truly were.
They lost themselves in it when they became champions. Or maybe they never truly were.
Greatest MMA fighters of all time
Lex Fridman
If we can, I want to talk about MMA and football in that same context. Let’s start with MMA. Who do you think are the greatest fighters of all time? You said you have a few favorites. Shogun, Georges St-Pierre, and Fedor Emelianenko. Let’s talk about those fighters and maybe others who interest you. They all had different distinct styles. So tell me why Shogun. You’ve always said that he was important to you as a fighter, and naturally he had legendary moments in Pride in two thousand and five.
If we can, I want to talk about MMA and football in that same context. Let’s start with MMA. Who do you think are the greatest fighters of all time? You said you have a few favorites. Shogun, Georges St-Pierre, and Fedor Emelianenko. Let’s talk about those fighters and maybe others who interest you. They all had different distinct styles. So tell me why Shogun. You’ve always said that he was important to you as a fighter, and naturally he had legendary moments in Pride in two thousand and five.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
His soccer kick.
His soccer kick.
Lex Fridman
Yes, that’s right.
Yes, that’s right.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, Shogun Rua, he when I was fifteen, sixteen years old, he was the Pride champion. At that time, for me, it was the best organization in the world. The best fighters in the world competed there. Fedor, Cro Cop, Shogun, Wanderlei Silva, Anderson Silva. Man, they had everybody. Overeem, Dan Henderson, the Nogueira brothers, the Emelianenko brothers. They were the best at that time for me and honestly for MMA as a whole. And right there in second place, in my opinion, shining right behind Fedor was Shogun. And the way he fights, no matter how they took him down, he’d get right back up. They couldn’t do a thing to him. Yeah, his wrestling was lacking, but his striking, Thai clinch, punches, kicks, knees. When he landed those soccer kicks, well, he really appealed to me as a fighter.
Well, Shogun Rua, he when I was fifteen, sixteen years old, he was the Pride champion. At that time, for me, it was the best organization in the world. The best fighters in the world competed there. Fedor, Cro Cop, Shogun, Wanderlei Silva, Anderson Silva. Man, they had everybody. Overeem, Dan Henderson, the Nogueira brothers, the Emelianenko brothers. They were the best at that time for me and honestly for MMA as a whole. And right there in second place, in my opinion, shining right behind Fedor was Shogun. And the way he fights, no matter how they took him down, he’d get right back up. They couldn’t do a thing to him. Yeah, his wrestling was lacking, but his striking, Thai clinch, punches, kicks, knees. When he landed those soccer kicks, well, he really appealed to me as a fighter.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Very calm, careful, very emotionally restrained, and his fight style. His style was actually at a very high level. The way he fought, no other fighter ever did. At that time, he really impressed me. Then he crossed over to the UFC and became the UFC champion. And UFC fights and the Pride fights at that time, I didn’t have a computer, internet, none of that. I remember there was this video rental place. We’d grab tapes and watch all these fights with my father. Mauricio Shogun Rua to me was like the gold standard of a fighter back then. I’d say right alongside Fedor and Georges St-Pierre.
Very calm, careful, very emotionally restrained, and his fight style. His style was actually at a very high level. The way he fought, no other fighter ever did. At that time, he really impressed me. Then he crossed over to the UFC and became the UFC champion. And UFC fights and the Pride fights at that time, I didn’t have a computer, internet, none of that. I remember there was this video rental place. We’d grab tapes and watch all these fights with my father. Mauricio Shogun Rua to me was like the gold standard of a fighter back then. I’d say right alongside Fedor and Georges St-Pierre.
Lex Fridman
And by the way, when you watched the fights with your father, did you watch them for fun or analyze them too?
And by the way, when you watched the fights with your father, did you watch them for fun or analyze them too?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Mostly we analyzed them. My father always loved to analyze fights. We’d sit like this and he’d say this, this, chokes, striking, wrestling. We were constantly analyzing. There was a fight in two thousand and six or two thousand and seven. I don’t even remember the exact year. Approximately around that time when Georges St-Pierre fought Sean Sherk. We even re-watched that fight a couple of times. Then Georges St-Pierre fought B.J. Penn, the second fight, I think, after the fourth round when there was a stoppage. Then, well, there were many, many fights and my father actually admired the fighting style, the fighting style of Georges St-Pierre. He really impressed us. And my father, my father always emphasized his timing of takedowns after striking, how he closed the distance.
Mostly we analyzed them. My father always loved to analyze fights. We’d sit like this and he’d say this, this, chokes, striking, wrestling. We were constantly analyzing. There was a fight in two thousand and six or two thousand and seven. I don’t even remember the exact year. Approximately around that time when Georges St-Pierre fought Sean Sherk. We even re-watched that fight a couple of times. Then Georges St-Pierre fought B.J. Penn, the second fight, I think, after the fourth round when there was a stoppage. Then, well, there were many, many fights and my father actually admired the fighting style, the fighting style of Georges St-Pierre. He really impressed us. And my father, my father always emphasized his timing of takedowns after striking, how he closed the distance.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And honestly, my whole, you know, like teenage conscious years growing up, like my formative years transitioning into an adult, it was all tied to Pride in its prime. And after the UFC bought Pride and those fighters crossed over, that whole boom in 2006, ‘7, ‘8 and ‘9, the rise of the UFC, I remember that era so vividly. My father and I re-watched so many of those UFC fights.
And honestly, my whole, you know, like teenage conscious years growing up, like my formative years transitioning into an adult, it was all tied to Pride in its prime. And after the UFC bought Pride and those fighters crossed over, that whole boom in 2006, ‘7, ‘8 and ‘9, the rise of the UFC, I remember that era so vividly. My father and I re-watched so many of those UFC fights.
Lex Fridman
Well, I have to ask about Fedor. What can you say about him? He had some legendary fights. He beat Cro Cop, Big Nog, Mark Coleman.
Well, I have to ask about Fedor. What can you say about him? He had some legendary fights. He beat Cro Cop, Big Nog, Mark Coleman.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, and Kevin Randleman. And then he had those legendary fights with the Japanese fighters who were big stars over there. Man, I loved it. Honestly, he inspired me just by the fact that he was from Russia and he was a Sambo fighter. He was closer to our school of training, Sambo, combat Sambo. And there was this moment back in 2004, the Dagestan Combat Sambo Championship. Can you imagine? 2004, the Dagestan Combat Sambo Championship, and Fedor showed up. He showed up.
Yeah, and Kevin Randleman. And then he had those legendary fights with the Japanese fighters who were big stars over there. Man, I loved it. Honestly, he inspired me just by the fact that he was from Russia and he was a Sambo fighter. He was closer to our school of training, Sambo, combat Sambo. And there was this moment back in 2004, the Dagestan Combat Sambo Championship. Can you imagine? 2004, the Dagestan Combat Sambo Championship, and Fedor showed up. He showed up.
Lex Fridman
He came.
He came.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
To compete in the Dagestan Open Combat Sambo Championship while being the reigning Pride champion. I was 15 years old at the time. I was right there in the venue. My father actually invited him. He was sending out invitations to different schools back then. It was Stary Oskol where he used to train. Fedor’s coaches were sent an invitation. He came with his brother, Alexander. They both made it to the finals back then. I just remember $5,000, $3,000, $1,000, first, second, third place. At heavyweight, they gave a car. When the two brothers arrived, they beat everyone to get to the finals. They didn’t fight each other. One of them took first place. That was Fedor. Alexander took second place. I remember back then when he was warming up, I was standing next to him while he warmed up.
To compete in the Dagestan Open Combat Sambo Championship while being the reigning Pride champion. I was 15 years old at the time. I was right there in the venue. My father actually invited him. He was sending out invitations to different schools back then. It was Stary Oskol where he used to train. Fedor’s coaches were sent an invitation. He came with his brother, Alexander. They both made it to the finals back then. I just remember $5,000, $3,000, $1,000, first, second, third place. At heavyweight, they gave a car. When the two brothers arrived, they beat everyone to get to the finals. They didn’t fight each other. One of them took first place. That was Fedor. Alexander took second place. I remember back then when he was warming up, I was standing next to him while he warmed up.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It was this building, you know, a venue that fits maybe 1,500 people, and over there was this partition, like a wall, and everyone was warming up behind that wall. At that time, well, practically very few people even knew who Fedor was, but I knew Fedor. I knew who he was, that he was the Pride champion. At that time, he beat Nogueira, beat Mark Coleman, beat Randleman. This was before his championship fight against Cro Cop. I would come over and just sit there watching how he warmed up, what he did. I just remember very well, I don’t know, maybe Fedor will see this podcast. He had a thermos. He had a thermos, and he was just drinking tea. And I remember he fought Ibragim Magomedov. He was also a legendary fighter of ours, a heavyweight who fought in Pride, too. He fought against him.
It was this building, you know, a venue that fits maybe 1,500 people, and over there was this partition, like a wall, and everyone was warming up behind that wall. At that time, well, practically very few people even knew who Fedor was, but I knew Fedor. I knew who he was, that he was the Pride champion. At that time, he beat Nogueira, beat Mark Coleman, beat Randleman. This was before his championship fight against Cro Cop. I would come over and just sit there watching how he warmed up, what he did. I just remember very well, I don’t know, maybe Fedor will see this podcast. He had a thermos. He had a thermos, and he was just drinking tea. And I remember he fought Ibragim Magomedov. He was also a legendary fighter of ours, a heavyweight who fought in Pride, too. He fought against him.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It was either his first or second fight, and he was warming up incredibly well. I remember how he was warming up his nose and his ears. I watched him, and it was unusual for me at that time. I never warmed up my nose and ears. I just remember how Fedor was really working on his nose, his ears, his whole face. And he went, fought, came back. This was in Makhachkala 2004. It’s the same as a UFC champion now coming and fighting at the Dagestan Combat Sambo Championship. Can you imagine that? Back then, it was the best heavyweight organization in the world. He comes there and fights. So he finished a fight, goes back, and he had this big thermos with him. His team was sitting separately over there. He was drinking tea.
It was either his first or second fight, and he was warming up incredibly well. I remember how he was warming up his nose and his ears. I watched him, and it was unusual for me at that time. I never warmed up my nose and ears. I just remember how Fedor was really working on his nose, his ears, his whole face. And he went, fought, came back. This was in Makhachkala 2004. It’s the same as a UFC champion now coming and fighting at the Dagestan Combat Sambo Championship. Can you imagine that? Back then, it was the best heavyweight organization in the world. He comes there and fights. So he finished a fight, goes back, and he had this big thermos with him. His team was sitting separately over there. He was drinking tea.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
He just fought, walked back, poured some tea, and drank it. He had something to snack on with it, maybe honey or something. I just don’t remember. And I was, “Wow, Fedor is right here.” For me, that was just such a, you know, great source of motivation back then. It’s really hard to put those emotions into words. By the way, maybe you could ask him about that on the podcast.
He just fought, walked back, poured some tea, and drank it. He had something to snack on with it, maybe honey or something. I just don’t remember. And I was, “Wow, Fedor is right here.” For me, that was just such a, you know, great source of motivation back then. It’s really hard to put those emotions into words. By the way, maybe you could ask him about that on the podcast.
Lex Fridman
About the thermos?
About the thermos?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
No, no. About the tea. What was in it? Thyme? Mint? What did he put in there?
No, no. About the tea. What was in it? Thyme? Mint? What did he put in there?
Lex Fridman
Well, I would love to talk to him on this podcast, but I think he rarely does interviews.
Well, I would love to talk to him on this podcast, but I think he rarely does interviews.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I think you can reach him. I can help you.
I think you can reach him. I can help you.
Lex Fridman
Well, if you could put in a good word for me.
Well, if you could put in a good word for me.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, of course. I think it would be interesting for people to hear him.
Yeah, of course. I think it would be interesting for people to hear him.
Lex Fridman
Absolutely. But psychologically, he’s kind of like you in a way.
Absolutely. But psychologically, he’s kind of like you in a way.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You mean calm?
You mean calm?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Yes, that calmness. You see the Pride era, those huge fights, those really tough matchups, and still he always stayed calm.
Yeah. Yes, that calmness. You see the Pride era, those huge fights, those really tough matchups, and still he always stayed calm.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It’s his aura.
It’s his aura.
Lex Fridman
Yeah?
Yeah?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I don’t know about others, but for me, that was his aura. The fact that he’d come out with such a calm, cool-headed look and knock out giants, strong fighters at that time, right? You know, we used to joke about his face, that he kind of looks like a kindergarten teacher, you know? And then he goes out there and knocks out absolute giants. And he was like that. Both before and after the fight, he never showed much emotion. But I think we’re a little different in that regard. I think Fedor, by temperament, is calmer than I am. That’s my impression. But with that cold-blooded calmness of his, I think he got to a lot of people mentally.
I don’t know about others, but for me, that was his aura. The fact that he’d come out with such a calm, cool-headed look and knock out giants, strong fighters at that time, right? You know, we used to joke about his face, that he kind of looks like a kindergarten teacher, you know? And then he goes out there and knocks out absolute giants. And he was like that. Both before and after the fight, he never showed much emotion. But I think we’re a little different in that regard. I think Fedor, by temperament, is calmer than I am. That’s my impression. But with that cold-blooded calmness of his, I think he got to a lot of people mentally.
Lex Fridman
It’s like something’s happening inside both of you, like something’s boiling inside. So when we look at your face-
It’s like something’s happening inside both of you, like something’s boiling inside. So when we look at your face-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Of course it’s boiling. What do you think? You know what? It’s one thing when it’s boiling inside and you show it, but there are some who can’t hide their feelings. But it’s a different thing when it’s boiling inside and on the surface you stay cold, cold-blooded, calm, and you can handle all these different emotions that hit you at the same time. There are a lot of them, and they all hit differently. When you compete, what makes a fighter, an athlete at the highest level so unique is that so many different emotions hit you at the same time. Fear, nerves, the fact that people are watching you, the thought that you might perform badly, that you might not show what you’ve trained for, that you might mess it up, that you might, I don’t know, fall.
Of course it’s boiling. What do you think? You know what? It’s one thing when it’s boiling inside and you show it, but there are some who can’t hide their feelings. But it’s a different thing when it’s boiling inside and on the surface you stay cold, cold-blooded, calm, and you can handle all these different emotions that hit you at the same time. There are a lot of them, and they all hit differently. When you compete, what makes a fighter, an athlete at the highest level so unique is that so many different emotions hit you at the same time. Fear, nerves, the fact that people are watching you, the thought that you might perform badly, that you might not show what you’ve trained for, that you might mess it up, that you might, I don’t know, fall.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
So much enters your head, and you can put each emotion where it belongs. So, you know, if all of that gets inside your head and turns into chaos, you won’t be able to handle it emotionally, but you stay cold-blooded. And you know that if you don’t handle these emotions that are coming at you, if you don’t handle this pressure, then it will be difficult for you to compete because the main competition is against yourself first. You fight yourself, you beat yourself, and only then do you actually start competing with your opponent. So I think it happens to everyone, not just him or me. The big difference here is how much you can control it.
So much enters your head, and you can put each emotion where it belongs. So, you know, if all of that gets inside your head and turns into chaos, you won’t be able to handle it emotionally, but you stay cold-blooded. And you know that if you don’t handle these emotions that are coming at you, if you don’t handle this pressure, then it will be difficult for you to compete because the main competition is against yourself first. You fight yourself, you beat yourself, and only then do you actually start competing with your opponent. So I think it happens to everyone, not just him or me. The big difference here is how much you can control it.
Lex Fridman
Fedor himself famously said, “The only person who can defeat me is me. The only person who can beat me is me.”
Fedor himself famously said, “The only person who can defeat me is me. The only person who can beat me is me.”
Khabib Nurmagomedov
He was talking about that fight with yourself, I’m sure. Because if you lose to yourself, then you’ll lose to your opponent very easily.
He was talking about that fight with yourself, I’m sure. Because if you lose to yourself, then you’ll lose to your opponent very easily.
Lex Fridman
There’s an interesting thing I came across. Adam Saitiev said that high-level athletes often make a mistake, and what they do wrong is that when they feel fear, they tend to ignore it. He believes that you have to confront that fear and overcome it.
There’s an interesting thing I came across. Adam Saitiev said that high-level athletes often make a mistake, and what they do wrong is that when they feel fear, they tend to ignore it. He believes that you have to confront that fear and overcome it.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes. Psychologists talk about how to work through those thoughts when they arise. You know, when fear comes up and you feel it, that’s absolutely normal. It’s what the Almighty put in us. People get scared, people get cold, people feel pain, people get hungry. These are things that are inside all of us. The real question is how you deal with them, how you overcome them within yourself. 100% you can’t ignore it, and you must work through it. You have to answer the questions, “Why did this happen? Could I do it this way instead?” And this comes only with experience, only with experience. And the more you compete, you know, the more you train and the more you face it. Some people actually try to avoid that moment. But the more you face it, the better and better you’ll become each time.
Yes. Psychologists talk about how to work through those thoughts when they arise. You know, when fear comes up and you feel it, that’s absolutely normal. It’s what the Almighty put in us. People get scared, people get cold, people feel pain, people get hungry. These are things that are inside all of us. The real question is how you deal with them, how you overcome them within yourself. 100% you can’t ignore it, and you must work through it. You have to answer the questions, “Why did this happen? Could I do it this way instead?” And this comes only with experience, only with experience. And the more you compete, you know, the more you train and the more you face it. Some people actually try to avoid that moment. But the more you face it, the better and better you’ll become each time.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It’s the same with athletes. They get nervous. That’s what we call the jitters, right? At first, whenever someone competes, they get the jitters. But when you keep competing over and over again, you gradually learn how to channel those nerves in the right direction. Then it gets easier for you. And in order to get there, you have to compete. And what is competition? You meet this fear face to face. You don’t avoid it. A lot of guys are staying away from competitions. When they’re young, they have this tension, this self-consciousness, this fear, the jitters. They’re nervous. They can’t sleep at night. You have to go through all of that yourself. Nobody can do it for you. A coach can train you. A coach can teach you.
It’s the same with athletes. They get nervous. That’s what we call the jitters, right? At first, whenever someone competes, they get the jitters. But when you keep competing over and over again, you gradually learn how to channel those nerves in the right direction. Then it gets easier for you. And in order to get there, you have to compete. And what is competition? You meet this fear face to face. You don’t avoid it. A lot of guys are staying away from competitions. When they’re young, they have this tension, this self-consciousness, this fear, the jitters. They’re nervous. They can’t sleep at night. You have to go through all of that yourself. Nobody can do it for you. A coach can train you. A coach can teach you.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
But all he can say is, “Practice, practice, practice.” Then there’s you, alone with your own feelings. When you lie down, when you wake up, when you walk, when you’re by yourself, when you eat, there are so many moments when a person has to go through all of this on his own. And when you have to go through this over and over again, some people back away. They don’t want to face it. And what do you need for that? Patience. You have to come and endure it and go through all of it, through your skin, through your muscles, through your mind. You must let all of this pass through you and overcome it. And each time you’ll get better at it.
But all he can say is, “Practice, practice, practice.” Then there’s you, alone with your own feelings. When you lie down, when you wake up, when you walk, when you’re by yourself, when you eat, there are so many moments when a person has to go through all of this on his own. And when you have to go through this over and over again, some people back away. They don’t want to face it. And what do you need for that? Patience. You have to come and endure it and go through all of it, through your skin, through your muscles, through your mind. You must let all of this pass through you and overcome it. And each time you’ll get better at it.
Lex Fridman
A good example of that is the third person you mentioned, Georges St-Pierre, who by the way sends his regards. I train with him a lot, and he has a very deep respect for you. But he didn’t give me much good advice because when I told him I was going to train with you, he told me… What did he say? He texted me, “If you die, you die.” That’s what he said.
A good example of that is the third person you mentioned, Georges St-Pierre, who by the way sends his regards. I train with him a lot, and he has a very deep respect for you. But he didn’t give me much good advice because when I told him I was going to train with you, he told me… What did he say? He texted me, “If you die, you die.” That’s what he said.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Good advice. He’s a wise man.
Good advice. He’s a wise man.
Lex Fridman
Didn’t support me and said, “Say hi.”
Didn’t support me and said, “Say hi.”
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Tell him I say hi, too.
Tell him I say hi, too.
Lex Fridman
As we were talking about, he himself has spoken about this, that he was afraid and always felt fear before every single fight. That’s interesting. One of the greatest fighters-
As we were talking about, he himself has spoken about this, that he was afraid and always felt fear before every single fight. That’s interesting. One of the greatest fighters-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
In history, yeah.
In history, yeah.
Lex Fridman
And even he feels fear.
And even he feels fear.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
He’s not afraid to admit it. Everybody has fear. Everybody gets afraid. But I don’t know how big that fear was for him. I really don’t know. We never discussed it. But I’ve watched a lot of his interviews, his fights, and his training camps. The way he analyzed his past fights and all that, the way I see it, he’s a very sensitive person. There are people like that too. Some guys take all of this very lightly. Like, “Okay, we fight tomorrow. We’ll see who my opponent is and how he shows up, right?” But there are others who find it very difficult to handle psychologically. But the Almighty gave me this kind of calmness. Sometimes I’d get to the arena, and they bring you in four hours before the fight. They have to weigh you, they have to do doping control, and they have to tape you up.
He’s not afraid to admit it. Everybody has fear. Everybody gets afraid. But I don’t know how big that fear was for him. I really don’t know. We never discussed it. But I’ve watched a lot of his interviews, his fights, and his training camps. The way he analyzed his past fights and all that, the way I see it, he’s a very sensitive person. There are people like that too. Some guys take all of this very lightly. Like, “Okay, we fight tomorrow. We’ll see who my opponent is and how he shows up, right?” But there are others who find it very difficult to handle psychologically. But the Almighty gave me this kind of calmness. Sometimes I’d get to the arena, and they bring you in four hours before the fight. They have to weigh you, they have to do doping control, and they have to tape you up.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
There are so many athletic commission procedures. Every state has different rules, how they bring you into the arena and all that. Sometimes I’d get there four hours early and think, “What am I supposed to do?” So I make myself a little bed and say, “Please keep it quiet.” I would lie down. I could sleep there for an hour, maybe an hour and a half. That’s it. Wake up, warm up, and then I could go out and fight. And some guys, they don’t sleep for two days before the fight. Believe me, there are fighters who don’t sleep the night before a fight, and it’s very hard on them. It’s not really fear. It’s hard to describe with just one emotion. It’s too many emotions that come over a person, and they can’t fall asleep.
There are so many athletic commission procedures. Every state has different rules, how they bring you into the arena and all that. Sometimes I’d get there four hours early and think, “What am I supposed to do?” So I make myself a little bed and say, “Please keep it quiet.” I would lie down. I could sleep there for an hour, maybe an hour and a half. That’s it. Wake up, warm up, and then I could go out and fight. And some guys, they don’t sleep for two days before the fight. Believe me, there are fighters who don’t sleep the night before a fight, and it’s very hard on them. It’s not really fear. It’s hard to describe with just one emotion. It’s too many emotions that come over a person, and they can’t fall asleep.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It’s panic, it’s fear, it’s worry, it’s nervousness, it’s the jitters. All of that builds up, and the person just can’t fall asleep. So in that regard, the Almighty gave me a little more calmness than others. I had, you know, such a cool head and calmness before the fights.
It’s panic, it’s fear, it’s worry, it’s nervousness, it’s the jitters. All of that builds up, and the person just can’t fall asleep. So in that regard, the Almighty gave me a little more calmness than others. I had, you know, such a cool head and calmness before the fights.
Coaching
Lex Fridman
Now you’re in this new position as a leader, and you’re looking at all these athletes, these young guys who are already at the very top of the world. And I think they’re all very different from one another psychologically, physically, and stylistically. What can you say as a coach? I know you’re not a coach, but as a leader, how do you figure out what each person needs? Like now we were watching Umar prepare. That each person needs something different.
Now you’re in this new position as a leader, and you’re looking at all these athletes, these young guys who are already at the very top of the world. And I think they’re all very different from one another psychologically, physically, and stylistically. What can you say as a coach? I know you’re not a coach, but as a leader, how do you figure out what each person needs? Like now we were watching Umar prepare. That each person needs something different.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, everyone is different. Different styles, different mentalities, different mindsets, different approaches to fight week and to preparation as a whole. But you have to adapt to all of it. Here, you can’t just take one approach. Let’s say we take my approach and apply it to everyone else, to Usman, Islam, and Umar. It doesn’t work like that. Everyone needs their own approach. I knew them since they were nobody, and I know them now when they are the best. So you have to treat each one differently. I’m very lucky to have Javier Mendez. He’s been by my side since 2012. And when I became a coach after I finished my career, he was there with me as a coach. I switched from being a fighter to a coaching role. My father was no longer with us.
Yes, everyone is different. Different styles, different mentalities, different mindsets, different approaches to fight week and to preparation as a whole. But you have to adapt to all of it. Here, you can’t just take one approach. Let’s say we take my approach and apply it to everyone else, to Usman, Islam, and Umar. It doesn’t work like that. Everyone needs their own approach. I knew them since they were nobody, and I know them now when they are the best. So you have to treat each one differently. I’m very lucky to have Javier Mendez. He’s been by my side since 2012. And when I became a coach after I finished my career, he was there with me as a coach. I switched from being a fighter to a coaching role. My father was no longer with us.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And together with Javier Mendes, we’ve been guiding them for these last six years. And his experience helps me tremendously because there is no coach, no MMA coach with the kind of results Javier Mendes has. You know? So many champions, double champions, UFC fighters. So many people have trained under him, from Frank Shamrock all the way to Islam Makhachev. So many fighters have trained under him, which makes things very easy for me because I have Javier Mendes by my side, and he can help me with so many things.
And together with Javier Mendes, we’ve been guiding them for these last six years. And his experience helps me tremendously because there is no coach, no MMA coach with the kind of results Javier Mendes has. You know? So many champions, double champions, UFC fighters. So many people have trained under him, from Frank Shamrock all the way to Islam Makhachev. So many fighters have trained under him, which makes things very easy for me because I have Javier Mendes by my side, and he can help me with so many things.
Lex Fridman
What do you think is the secret behind Javier’s genius? Why is he such a great coach for so many different athletes?
What do you think is the secret behind Javier’s genius? Why is he such a great coach for so many different athletes?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It’s the mental side of things. I’m not gonna say he’s one of the best at holding pads or anything like that, but his understanding of MMA itself, his approach to training camp, to the whole preparation process, and the amount of attention he pays to sparring inside the cage. I’m not talking about those sparring sessions with 50 people in the gym and everyone is sparring with each other. For example, when I was preparing for a five-round fight, he would always bring in two or three high-level opponents, constantly rotating in fresh sparring partners.
It’s the mental side of things. I’m not gonna say he’s one of the best at holding pads or anything like that, but his understanding of MMA itself, his approach to training camp, to the whole preparation process, and the amount of attention he pays to sparring inside the cage. I’m not talking about those sparring sessions with 50 people in the gym and everyone is sparring with each other. For example, when I was preparing for a five-round fight, he would always bring in two or three high-level opponents, constantly rotating in fresh sparring partners.
Lex Fridman
And he would watch and analyze.
And he would watch and analyze.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I don’t remember him ever missing a single sparring session since 2012. Can you imagine? 14 years have gone by, and right now we’re in training camp. He’s there for every training session, morning and evening. He’s at every sparring session, watching everyone, coaching them, giving advice, guiding them. He’s incredibly dedicated to what he does. He’s either all in or he steps away completely. He never shows up and gives only 50%. I remember one situation. Abubakar was getting ready to fight in WSOF, and I had another student fighting there as well. Abubakar went through the entire preparation with us, but the other guy didn’t. When we got there, I told the coach, “Coach, can you work his corner with me too?” He said, “You know, Khabib, I haven’t seen his preparation.
I don’t remember him ever missing a single sparring session since 2012. Can you imagine? 14 years have gone by, and right now we’re in training camp. He’s there for every training session, morning and evening. He’s at every sparring session, watching everyone, coaching them, giving advice, guiding them. He’s incredibly dedicated to what he does. He’s either all in or he steps away completely. He never shows up and gives only 50%. I remember one situation. Abubakar was getting ready to fight in WSOF, and I had another student fighting there as well. Abubakar went through the entire preparation with us, but the other guy didn’t. When we got there, I told the coach, “Coach, can you work his corner with me too?” He said, “You know, Khabib, I haven’t seen his preparation.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I don’t know what he’s capable of. He didn’t train under me. But since you’re asking, I’ll do it. But for the future, remember, I don’t really like to corner guys I haven’t prepared.” I didn’t understand him then, but now I do. This was 2016 or maybe 2017. I don’t want to be wrong. And now I understand. Now when people ask me, I’m like, “I didn’t prepare you. I don’t know how ready you are.” I’m not ready to go in there and give all my energy to someone who didn’t go through camp with me. Now I understand that. At that time, I told the coach, “Can you come out and corner him with me?” He said, “No problem.” We went out there, Abubakar won his fight, and the other guy’s fight ended in a draw. But that’s not really what I’m getting at.
I don’t know what he’s capable of. He didn’t train under me. But since you’re asking, I’ll do it. But for the future, remember, I don’t really like to corner guys I haven’t prepared.” I didn’t understand him then, but now I do. This was 2016 or maybe 2017. I don’t want to be wrong. And now I understand. Now when people ask me, I’m like, “I didn’t prepare you. I don’t know how ready you are.” I’m not ready to go in there and give all my energy to someone who didn’t go through camp with me. Now I understand that. At that time, I told the coach, “Can you come out and corner him with me?” He said, “No problem.” We went out there, Abubakar won his fight, and the other guy’s fight ended in a draw. But that’s not really what I’m getting at.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I’ve come to the point where if I haven’t trained someone for two, three, or four months, I don’t like to corner them because they didn’t go through a full training camp, and I don’t know how they’ll respond in the third, fourth, or fifth round. I don’t know how he prepared. I don’t know how ready he is to go into those deep waters. That’s why I try not to corner just anyone. I learned that from Javier.
I’ve come to the point where if I haven’t trained someone for two, three, or four months, I don’t like to corner them because they didn’t go through a full training camp, and I don’t know how they’ll respond in the third, fourth, or fifth round. I don’t know how he prepared. I don’t know how ready he is to go into those deep waters. That’s why I try not to corner just anyone. I learned that from Javier.
Lex Fridman
So you need to know he can go into those deep waters.
So you need to know he can go into those deep waters.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
How deep he can go. I need to know exactly what he’s capable of.
How deep he can go. I need to know exactly what he’s capable of.
Daniel Cormier
Lex Fridman
What can you say about one of the greatest fighters and athletes ever, Daniel DC Cormier, who you train with? You guys joke around all the time, so it’s easy to forget how great he really is. What can you say about him as a training partner, as a coach, as a person?
What can you say about one of the greatest fighters and athletes ever, Daniel DC Cormier, who you train with? You guys joke around all the time, so it’s easy to forget how great he really is. What can you say about him as a training partner, as a coach, as a person?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
When we talk about DC, we have to go back to 2004, 2008. He was a two-time Olympian. He represented Team USA at the Olympic Games, and that carries a lot of weight in this sport, especially in the 96-kilo division. And he is a two-time Olympian. Then he transitioned to MMA, won a few fights on the regional scene, went to Strikeforce, won fights there. They put him into the Grand Prix. He won the Grand Prix, became heavyweight champion, and then went to the UFC. When he moved to the UFC, he cut down to 205 pounds to make room for Cain Velasquez because they were best friends. Cain was the heavyweight champion. So he moved to 205, and they both became champions, one at light heavyweight and one at heavyweight. Later, when Cain lost the title, he moved to heavyweight and won there too.
When we talk about DC, we have to go back to 2004, 2008. He was a two-time Olympian. He represented Team USA at the Olympic Games, and that carries a lot of weight in this sport, especially in the 96-kilo division. And he is a two-time Olympian. Then he transitioned to MMA, won a few fights on the regional scene, went to Strikeforce, won fights there. They put him into the Grand Prix. He won the Grand Prix, became heavyweight champion, and then went to the UFC. When he moved to the UFC, he cut down to 205 pounds to make room for Cain Velasquez because they were best friends. Cain was the heavyweight champion. So he moved to 205, and they both became champions, one at light heavyweight and one at heavyweight. Later, when Cain lost the title, he moved to heavyweight and won there too.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
He’s one of the most unique athletes who has ever lived. How many athletes do you know who competed at the World Championships, at the Olympic Games in freestyle wrestling, then transitioned to MMA and became Strikeforce champion, UFC light heavyweight champion, and UFC heavyweight champion? And he’s also remembered for his rivalry with one of the greatest, if not the greatest, Jon Jones. But by the time he fought Jon Jones, he was no longer at his peak. I think he was already pushing 40. Even though we have this friendly, joking relationship because he’s such a fun, interesting guy, as an athlete though, he’s truly one of a kind.
He’s one of the most unique athletes who has ever lived. How many athletes do you know who competed at the World Championships, at the Olympic Games in freestyle wrestling, then transitioned to MMA and became Strikeforce champion, UFC light heavyweight champion, and UFC heavyweight champion? And he’s also remembered for his rivalry with one of the greatest, if not the greatest, Jon Jones. But by the time he fought Jon Jones, he was no longer at his peak. I think he was already pushing 40. Even though we have this friendly, joking relationship because he’s such a fun, interesting guy, as an athlete though, he’s truly one of a kind.
Lex Fridman
As a commentator too, he’s very good with words.
As a commentator too, he’s very good with words.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Educated, well-mannered, strong. He has so many great qualities. Daniel Cormier is one of those people who I think can truly inspire others.
Educated, well-mannered, strong. He has so many great qualities. Daniel Cormier is one of those people who I think can truly inspire others.
Lex Fridman
So who usually wins when you guys wrestle? You or DC?
So who usually wins when you guys wrestle? You or DC?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, he’s got a few years on me. But back in my prime, when I was competing at lightweight, I weighed around 84, 85, maybe 86 kilos. DC was always around 107, 110. Those are completely different weight classes. DC was better at wrestling and as an Olympian too, all joking aside.
Well, he’s got a few years on me. But back in my prime, when I was competing at lightweight, I weighed around 84, 85, maybe 86 kilos. DC was always around 107, 110. Those are completely different weight classes. DC was better at wrestling and as an Olympian too, all joking aside.
Lex Fridman
So you feel-
So you feel-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Back then it was really tough, of course, but now it’s different. Now I can go after him. But I learned so much from Cormier. Honestly, so much. As a person, a wrestler, and a fighter. You know, we spent our best years together at AKA from 2012 to 2020. We’ve shared so many memories and moments together as well.
Back then it was really tough, of course, but now it’s different. Now I can go after him. But I learned so much from Cormier. Honestly, so much. As a person, a wrestler, and a fighter. You know, we spent our best years together at AKA from 2012 to 2020. We’ve shared so many memories and moments together as well.
Lex Fridman
I just think it’s a shame that people don’t talk about him as one of the top five, top 10.
I just think it’s a shame that people don’t talk about him as one of the top five, top 10.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, top 10 for sure. One of the top 10 greatest, no question. Yeah, I definitely think so.
Well, top 10 for sure. One of the top 10 greatest, no question. Yeah, I definitely think so.
Lex Fridman
It’s a shame, but you see this in football and in other sports too. One rivalry can overshadow an entire legacy. For DC, it’s Jon Jones.
It’s a shame, but you see this in football and in other sports too. One rivalry can overshadow an entire legacy. For DC, it’s Jon Jones.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, Jon Jones was the better athlete. There’s no doubt about that. But DC was right there with him. Yes, Jon Jones won, but DC gave him a real fight. He was that very person, you know, who actually made Jon Jones train harder. People shouldn’t forget that. I’m sure Jon Jones prepared for that fight like it was the hardest fight of his life.
Well, Jon Jones was the better athlete. There’s no doubt about that. But DC was right there with him. Yes, Jon Jones won, but DC gave him a real fight. He was that very person, you know, who actually made Jon Jones train harder. People shouldn’t forget that. I’m sure Jon Jones prepared for that fight like it was the hardest fight of his life.
Islam Makhachev
Lex Fridman
Well, we’ve talked about different athletes, about Umar, but now let’s talk about Islam Makhachev, one of your closest brothers, who’s at the very top of the world. You’ve known each other. You’ve trained together for more than 20 years. In your opinion, what makes him such a special wrestler and fighter? Why has he reached such heights? Why is he a great fighter?
Well, we’ve talked about different athletes, about Umar, but now let’s talk about Islam Makhachev, one of your closest brothers, who’s at the very top of the world. You’ve known each other. You’ve trained together for more than 20 years. In your opinion, what makes him such a special wrestler and fighter? Why has he reached such heights? Why is he a great fighter?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, let’s start with the fact that Islam has been doing this for his whole life, since childhood. And I’ve known him since childhood too. We went to the same school, lived in the same neighborhood, trained at the same gym, and he was my father’s student. And it’s worth mentioning, he was one of my father’s favorite students.
Well, let’s start with the fact that Islam has been doing this for his whole life, since childhood. And I’ve known him since childhood too. We went to the same school, lived in the same neighborhood, trained at the same gym, and he was my father’s student. And it’s worth mentioning, he was one of my father’s favorite students.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
One of the best students. My father saw in him this potential for greatness in how hard he trained. That’s what I was talking about at the beginning of the podcast. When you go into the dark, uncomfortable room and stay there for a long time, no matter how hard it gets. He knew how to make sacrifices. He was very disciplined. Nobody reaches this level by accident. It’s impossible without exceptional natural gifts. And he has them. He’s gifted. Allah blessed him with those gifts. And he’s deeply devoted to what he does. We basically grew up together, right? I’m three years older than Islam. And I was always a little bigger, a little older than him. So when we were amateurs, I competed in slightly heavier weight classes. But we worked together a lot.
One of the best students. My father saw in him this potential for greatness in how hard he trained. That’s what I was talking about at the beginning of the podcast. When you go into the dark, uncomfortable room and stay there for a long time, no matter how hard it gets. He knew how to make sacrifices. He was very disciplined. Nobody reaches this level by accident. It’s impossible without exceptional natural gifts. And he has them. He’s gifted. Allah blessed him with those gifts. And he’s deeply devoted to what he does. We basically grew up together, right? I’m three years older than Islam. And I was always a little bigger, a little older than him. So when we were amateurs, I competed in slightly heavier weight classes. But we worked together a lot.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And Islam benefited tremendously from training with me. We trained together for many years. And he never had to go anywhere to find a sparring partner because he always had one in the gym. So I developed by training with the older guys in the gym, the stronger guys, the better guys when I was young. Then when they left, I was the one in front. Islam kept growing, growing, growing. Now I left. Islam is the one in front. And now other guys are developing through him. This is a kind of chain that exists in a gym, in a training system that produces the best fighters in the world. And in this chain, Islam was always behind me. If I was behind someone, Islam was behind me. Now others are following. Islam, Usman, Amru, and other guys.
And Islam benefited tremendously from training with me. We trained together for many years. And he never had to go anywhere to find a sparring partner because he always had one in the gym. So I developed by training with the older guys in the gym, the stronger guys, the better guys when I was young. Then when they left, I was the one in front. Islam kept growing, growing, growing. Now I left. Islam is the one in front. And now other guys are developing through him. This is a kind of chain that exists in a gym, in a training system that produces the best fighters in the world. And in this chain, Islam was always behind me. If I was behind someone, Islam was behind me. Now others are following. Islam, Usman, Amru, and other guys.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You could put them against any of the best fighters in the world right now, and they would perform very well. So in this chain we’ve had since 2003, and now it’s already 2026, that’s 23 years. Islam was the one coming up behind me. And now there are younger guys coming up behind Islam. And it’s no secret that Islam will turn 35 in October. But what makes me happy is that there are younger guys coming up behind him. I left. Islam stepped in. One day Islam will leave too, and others will take his place. And this cycle, it never ends. It keeps going, and it keeps pulling the next generation forward. At the beginning, a lot of people are involved. But as you gradually climb higher, higher, and higher, the road gets narrower, and fewer and fewer people remain.
You could put them against any of the best fighters in the world right now, and they would perform very well. So in this chain we’ve had since 2003, and now it’s already 2026, that’s 23 years. Islam was the one coming up behind me. And now there are younger guys coming up behind Islam. And it’s no secret that Islam will turn 35 in October. But what makes me happy is that there are younger guys coming up behind him. I left. Islam stepped in. One day Islam will leave too, and others will take his place. And this cycle, it never ends. It keeps going, and it keeps pulling the next generation forward. At the beginning, a lot of people are involved. But as you gradually climb higher, higher, and higher, the road gets narrower, and fewer and fewer people remain.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And alongside Islam, a lot of guys were developing while training with me. But Islam made it all the way because of his work ethic, his discipline, and let’s call it sacrifice. He gave up a lot to reach this level. This isn’t easy. You have to make sacrifices. You have to make sacrifices. You have to give up parties. You have to sacrifice sleep. You have to sacrifice your time. There are so many things you have to give up. You have to dedicate your entire life to this sport, putting aside all the things that can distract you. You train, you sleep, you eat, you wake up, and then you do it all over again. Only then can you reach the level that Islam reached. That’s what makes him unique.
And alongside Islam, a lot of guys were developing while training with me. But Islam made it all the way because of his work ethic, his discipline, and let’s call it sacrifice. He gave up a lot to reach this level. This isn’t easy. You have to make sacrifices. You have to make sacrifices. You have to give up parties. You have to sacrifice sleep. You have to sacrifice your time. There are so many things you have to give up. You have to dedicate your entire life to this sport, putting aside all the things that can distract you. You train, you sleep, you eat, you wake up, and then you do it all over again. Only then can you reach the level that Islam reached. That’s what makes him unique.
Lex Fridman
Were there any small but interesting differences between you and Islam, psychologically speaking?
Were there any small but interesting differences between you and Islam, psychologically speaking?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
There are many. Psychologically, he’s very solid too. I’ve been around him through so many training camps and so many fights. He’s built very strong mentally. Of course, we’re different in certain things, but in terms of our fighter’s attitude toward their work, we have a lot in common. A lot.
There are many. Psychologically, he’s very solid too. I’ve been around him through so many training camps and so many fights. He’s built very strong mentally. Of course, we’re different in certain things, but in terms of our fighter’s attitude toward their work, we have a lot in common. A lot.
Lex Fridman
You also train a lot.
You also train a lot.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, absolutely. A lot.
Yeah, absolutely. A lot.
Lex Fridman
And I think he… Well, first I have to say, I watched you train yesterday, and it made me really happy to see that you still love this so deeply. You know, it’s hard to love something for such a long time.
And I think he… Well, first I have to say, I watched you train yesterday, and it made me really happy to see that you still love this so deeply. You know, it’s hard to love something for such a long time.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
People finish and move on. They retire and move on. But me, it’s been six years since I retired, and I still haven’t let go of wrestling, of competition. I still go to the gym, do cardio, lift, wrestle, grapple. I never let it go. It’s still with me. And yesterday I told you that last week I did 200 minutes of live grappling. This week is a little different though, because I’m just focused on Umar, traveling, and everything that comes with that. So this week it’s going to be less. Still, I wrestle. I don’t let go. I love it. I love this energy. I love that feeling after wrestling. You wrestle, let’s say 40 minutes. Yesterday I still wanted more. Just now I wrestled with you, with Islam, maybe 20 minutes, but still it’s not enough to get that feeling, that 100% feeling.
People finish and move on. They retire and move on. But me, it’s been six years since I retired, and I still haven’t let go of wrestling, of competition. I still go to the gym, do cardio, lift, wrestle, grapple. I never let it go. It’s still with me. And yesterday I told you that last week I did 200 minutes of live grappling. This week is a little different though, because I’m just focused on Umar, traveling, and everything that comes with that. So this week it’s going to be less. Still, I wrestle. I don’t let go. I love it. I love this energy. I love that feeling after wrestling. You wrestle, let’s say 40 minutes. Yesterday I still wanted more. Just now I wrestled with you, with Islam, maybe 20 minutes, but still it’s not enough to get that feeling, that 100% feeling.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I need around 40 minutes of wrestling, something like that. I don’t think most people listening to us will understand that. But I think some people watching, especially grappling and jujitsu fans, will understand me.
I need around 40 minutes of wrestling, something like that. I don’t think most people listening to us will understand that. But I think some people watching, especially grappling and jujitsu fans, will understand me.
Lex Fridman
Well, to be honest, sometimes there are cameras around you, and for me at least, that’s harder. I like it when there are none.
Well, to be honest, sometimes there are cameras around you, and for me at least, that’s harder. I like it when there are none.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I usually train with no cameras. With you was one of the rare occasions when I come to the gym and-
I usually train with no cameras. With you was one of the rare occasions when I come to the gym and-
Lex Fridman
You allow?
You allow?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
When I allow it, yes.
When I allow it, yes.
Lex Fridman
Thanks for that.
Thanks for that.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is very, very rare for me. Even with Embedded, with UFC, with everyone who comes, I always say, “Don’t film.”
Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is very, very rare for me. Even with Embedded, with UFC, with everyone who comes, I always say, “Don’t film.”
Lex Fridman
Thank you, brother. I don’t know why, but cameras get in the way for me because this sport, this preparation, it happens here, and that whole world where celebrities matter, it gets in the way.
Thank you, brother. I don’t know why, but cameras get in the way for me because this sport, this preparation, it happens here, and that whole world where celebrities matter, it gets in the way.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, it gets in the way. But 99.9% of our training sessions happen without cameras.
Yes, it gets in the way. But 99.9% of our training sessions happen without cameras.
Lex Fridman
Well, thank you, brother. Let me ask you this. A lot of people say you’re number one, the greatest of all time. Do you think Islam has a chance to become the greatest MMA fighter of all time?
Well, thank you, brother. Let me ask you this. A lot of people say you’re number one, the greatest of all time. Do you think Islam has a chance to become the greatest MMA fighter of all time?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, I’ve never said that, and I never set out to become number one or to become the greatest athlete and so on. I never had that. My goal was always to become the best in my sport, to become a world champion, to prove to myself that I could do it. But it’s hard to choose just one person. Even now, look, there’s always going to be St-Pierre, there’s always going to be Demetrious Johnson, there’s always going to be Jon Jones, there’s always going to be Fedor. If people want to include me in that conversation, if Islam gets into that conversation, if there’s Cain Velasquez, Cormier, and so on, I’d be happy about that. And that’s my goal, that someone from our team, from the people closest to me, gets there too. If Jon Jones is there, why can’t Islam be there?
Well, I’ve never said that, and I never set out to become number one or to become the greatest athlete and so on. I never had that. My goal was always to become the best in my sport, to become a world champion, to prove to myself that I could do it. But it’s hard to choose just one person. Even now, look, there’s always going to be St-Pierre, there’s always going to be Demetrious Johnson, there’s always going to be Jon Jones, there’s always going to be Fedor. If people want to include me in that conversation, if Islam gets into that conversation, if there’s Cain Velasquez, Cormier, and so on, I’d be happy about that. And that’s my goal, that someone from our team, from the people closest to me, gets there too. If Jon Jones is there, why can’t Islam be there?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
If Demetrious Johnson is there with 11 title defenses, why can’t Islam be there? It’s a good question. Why not? I’d like him to break all those records, to overtake Jon Jones, Demetrious Johnson, and St-Pierre, no matter how much respect I have for them. Islam has a chance, but time is starting to run out a little. This worries me because, for example, Jones fought at light heavyweight and now at heavyweight. Time is a little kinder to those divisions. Even at 38, you can still compete at the heavier weights. You don’t need the same reaction speed and all that. But when you compete in lighter weight classes, 155, 170, age really catches up.
If Demetrious Johnson is there with 11 title defenses, why can’t Islam be there? It’s a good question. Why not? I’d like him to break all those records, to overtake Jon Jones, Demetrious Johnson, and St-Pierre, no matter how much respect I have for them. Islam has a chance, but time is starting to run out a little. This worries me because, for example, Jones fought at light heavyweight and now at heavyweight. Time is a little kinder to those divisions. Even at 38, you can still compete at the heavier weights. You don’t need the same reaction speed and all that. But when you compete in lighter weight classes, 155, 170, age really catches up.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I think active fighters, retired fighters, wrestlers, athletes, especially those who competed in these weight classes, will understand what I’m talking about. When you’re 35 and when you’re 32 and when you’re 38, you’re a totally different athlete.
I think active fighters, retired fighters, wrestlers, athletes, especially those who competed in these weight classes, will understand what I’m talking about. When you’re 35 and when you’re 32 and when you’re 38, you’re a totally different athlete.
Dana White
Lex Fridman
From where you are now, you can see the entire fight business, and you know Dana White very well. I’d say he’s one of those rare geniuses in sports business, in business, period. I don’t think the UFC would exist without Dana White. There are important people there, of course, but he’s really at the center of it all. What can you say about him? What qualities, what traits have made him such a successful businessman?
From where you are now, you can see the entire fight business, and you know Dana White very well. I’d say he’s one of those rare geniuses in sports business, in business, period. I don’t think the UFC would exist without Dana White. There are important people there, of course, but he’s really at the center of it all. What can you say about him? What qualities, what traits have made him such a successful businessman?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
First of all, I think if you look at it, I also kind of… Well, not kind of, I understand his position a little. I also ran my own league for a couple of years. I know what the relationship between a promoter, well, a league owner and the fighters is like, not just as a fighter dealing with a league owner. I’ve been on both sides of it. He’s very good at separating business from personal relationships. For him, the two never, never overlap. He draws a clear line between them. In business, he’s extremely cold-blooded. He’s made decisions, some major decisions, regardless of whether people like them or not. And those decisions, they were best for the league and for the UFC. He always had that mentality, you know, like in those mafia movies where family comes first, right?
First of all, I think if you look at it, I also kind of… Well, not kind of, I understand his position a little. I also ran my own league for a couple of years. I know what the relationship between a promoter, well, a league owner and the fighters is like, not just as a fighter dealing with a league owner. I’ve been on both sides of it. He’s very good at separating business from personal relationships. For him, the two never, never overlap. He draws a clear line between them. In business, he’s extremely cold-blooded. He’s made decisions, some major decisions, regardless of whether people like them or not. And those decisions, they were best for the league and for the UFC. He always had that mentality, you know, like in those mafia movies where family comes first, right?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, for him, the UFC always came first. That’s the only way he was able to push their brand forward. Of course, a lot of people contributed to that success. There were a lot of them. You have to give credit to Bruce Buffer, to Joe Rogan, to the commentators who were there. There were a lot of things that made the UFC unique, but the cherry on top was always Dana. Dana did an incredible job promoting the UFC, and he still does. No matter what, the UFC is always there. You know? No matter how unsuccessful a particular event might be, the UFC is still the UFC. When they go into a new market outside the United States, even if a show doesn’t go so well, people will still come back for the next event simply because it’s the UFC.
Well, for him, the UFC always came first. That’s the only way he was able to push their brand forward. Of course, a lot of people contributed to that success. There were a lot of them. You have to give credit to Bruce Buffer, to Joe Rogan, to the commentators who were there. There were a lot of things that made the UFC unique, but the cherry on top was always Dana. Dana did an incredible job promoting the UFC, and he still does. No matter what, the UFC is always there. You know? No matter how unsuccessful a particular event might be, the UFC is still the UFC. When they go into a new market outside the United States, even if a show doesn’t go so well, people will still come back for the next event simply because it’s the UFC.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Over the last 30 plus years, they’ve established themselves as the premier MMA league in the world, and they put on the best fights. So in that respect, I think a huge part of the credit goes to Dana. The fact that the UFC has come this far is a major achievement.
Over the last 30 plus years, they’ve established themselves as the premier MMA league in the world, and they put on the best fights. So in that respect, I think a huge part of the credit goes to Dana. The fact that the UFC has come this far is a major achievement.
Lex Fridman
Building a league like that is incredibly difficult.
Building a league like that is incredibly difficult.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah. A lot of people have money and a lot of people have tried. Many have come in. But building what the UFC has built is extremely hard. And what they’ve achieved now with Paramount, that’s something unique. It’s a unique achievement. In just 30 years, they’ve grown to a level that some entire sports needed 100 or 150 years to reach. And you have to give credit where it’s due, and that credit goes to one person, Dana White. So I think that his genius as a promoter, the way he promotes and pushes fights, and pushes his league as a whole, that is just remarkable. In my opinion, that’s something a lot of people could learn from him.
Yeah. A lot of people have money and a lot of people have tried. Many have come in. But building what the UFC has built is extremely hard. And what they’ve achieved now with Paramount, that’s something unique. It’s a unique achievement. In just 30 years, they’ve grown to a level that some entire sports needed 100 or 150 years to reach. And you have to give credit where it’s due, and that credit goes to one person, Dana White. So I think that his genius as a promoter, the way he promotes and pushes fights, and pushes his league as a whole, that is just remarkable. In my opinion, that’s something a lot of people could learn from him.
Joe Rogan
Lex Fridman
You mentioned Joe Rogan. You know, he’s a friend of mine. I love listening to his podcast, but I’ve never actually heard the two of you have a conversation together. Do you think that’s something that could happen in the future?
You mentioned Joe Rogan. You know, he’s a friend of mine. I love listening to his podcast, but I’ve never actually heard the two of you have a conversation together. Do you think that’s something that could happen in the future?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, of course.
Yes, of course.
Lex Fridman
I know you have a great deal of respect for him, and he has a great deal of respect for you. I can’t wait to hear the two of you talk.
I know you have a great deal of respect for him, and he has a great deal of respect for you. I can’t wait to hear the two of you talk.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Same here. If we’re talking about the people most responsible for promoting the UFC, I’d put Dana first. But second place, without question, goes to Joe Rogan. It’s honestly hard to imagine the UFC without him. It’ll be hard when he’s no longer part of it. And what he’s achieved in his own field, what he’s achieved in podcasting, he’s the best. And what he’s built, the way he commentates, the way he communicates, his knowledge, his charisma, the way he carries a conversation, I think a lot of people could learn from him. And as for me going on his podcast, I think it’s inevitable. God willing, if we’re given the time and the health, we’ll have a lot to talk about. There are so many different topics we could discuss together, so a conversation with Joe Rogan would be very interesting.
Same here. If we’re talking about the people most responsible for promoting the UFC, I’d put Dana first. But second place, without question, goes to Joe Rogan. It’s honestly hard to imagine the UFC without him. It’ll be hard when he’s no longer part of it. And what he’s achieved in his own field, what he’s achieved in podcasting, he’s the best. And what he’s built, the way he commentates, the way he communicates, his knowledge, his charisma, the way he carries a conversation, I think a lot of people could learn from him. And as for me going on his podcast, I think it’s inevitable. God willing, if we’re given the time and the health, we’ll have a lot to talk about. There are so many different topics we could discuss together, so a conversation with Joe Rogan would be very interesting.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I’d definitely like to talk to him.
I’d definitely like to talk to him.
Lex Fridman
I agree. But it’s interesting, right now you and I are speaking Russian.
I agree. But it’s interesting, right now you and I are speaking Russian.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Language is a tricky thing.
Language is a tricky thing.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, exactly. With him, you need to come prepared.
Yeah, exactly. With him, you need to come prepared.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Because if you show up unprepared, he will just eat you alive. You have to be ready. It’s a mental battle, too.
Because if you show up unprepared, he will just eat you alive. You have to be ready. It’s a mental battle, too.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And by the way, you know, you’ve mentioned a few times that you’d like to improve your Arabic. Language is such an interesting thing. It opens doors to understanding. It allows you to understand culture and history on a much deeper level.
Yeah. And by the way, you know, you’ve mentioned a few times that you’d like to improve your Arabic. Language is such an interesting thing. It opens doors to understanding. It allows you to understand culture and history on a much deeper level.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Absolutely. Without the language, it’s very difficult. I’m starting to study Arabic now, but I’ve been reading the Quran since I was a child. I know the alphabet very well, the pronunciation rules. I can read it well. But the Quran and Arabic as a spoken language are different. I wouldn’t say they’re drastically different, but they are different. If you want to speak it conversationally, you need to study grammar and learn it in a different way.
Absolutely. Without the language, it’s very difficult. I’m starting to study Arabic now, but I’ve been reading the Quran since I was a child. I know the alphabet very well, the pronunciation rules. I can read it well. But the Quran and Arabic as a spoken language are different. I wouldn’t say they’re drastically different, but they are different. If you want to speak it conversationally, you need to study grammar and learn it in a different way.
Ali Abdelaziz
Lex Fridman
I’d also like to ask you about Ali, Ali Abdelaziz. He’s such a central figure. He represents so many champions. What do you respect about him? What do you think makes him a genius? Because he’s such a unique person.
I’d also like to ask you about Ali, Ali Abdelaziz. He’s such a central figure. He represents so many champions. What do you respect about him? What do you think makes him a genius? Because he’s such a unique person.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, I met Ali in 2014. We’ve been working together ever since. Over the years, a lot of fighters came to him through me, a lot of guys. And in all this time, in the 12 years we’ve known each other, I don’t– I can barely remember any fighters leaving him, except maybe a couple. But hundreds of fighters have worked with him, hundreds of fighters, and so many guys still keep in touch with him, and he has very good relationships with them. I’d also like to note that Ali, you know, he has one unique quality. People either really love him or really hate him. You can’t just be neutral about him, you know, like, “Yeah, I know Ali. He’s all right.” No one will say about him, “Well, you know, I know him. He’s a good guy.” You’ll have strong feelings for him.
Well, I met Ali in 2014. We’ve been working together ever since. Over the years, a lot of fighters came to him through me, a lot of guys. And in all this time, in the 12 years we’ve known each other, I don’t– I can barely remember any fighters leaving him, except maybe a couple. But hundreds of fighters have worked with him, hundreds of fighters, and so many guys still keep in touch with him, and he has very good relationships with them. I’d also like to note that Ali, you know, he has one unique quality. People either really love him or really hate him. You can’t just be neutral about him, you know, like, “Yeah, I know Ali. He’s all right.” No one will say about him, “Well, you know, I know him. He’s a good guy.” You’ll have strong feelings for him.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Either you hate him or you really love him. And I am in that category of people who really… How do I put it? Who are very fond of him. And I have a good relationship with him. I know his family. I know his children. His kids grew up before my eyes. When I first met him, he only had two or three children. Now he has more. This is the kind of person he is. You need to get to know him better to really appreciate him, and he will stand by you until the very end. And yeah, of course, there are people who have mixed feelings about him. But that’s my point. It’s hard to feel indifferent about Ali. “I know Ali. He’s a very good guy.” No, it’s different with him. People will either tell you, “I know Ali and I absolutely love him,” or, “I know Ali and I can’t stand him.”
Either you hate him or you really love him. And I am in that category of people who really… How do I put it? Who are very fond of him. And I have a good relationship with him. I know his family. I know his children. His kids grew up before my eyes. When I first met him, he only had two or three children. Now he has more. This is the kind of person he is. You need to get to know him better to really appreciate him, and he will stand by you until the very end. And yeah, of course, there are people who have mixed feelings about him. But that’s my point. It’s hard to feel indifferent about Ali. “I know Ali. He’s a very good guy.” No, it’s different with him. People will either tell you, “I know Ali and I absolutely love him,” or, “I know Ali and I can’t stand him.”
Lex Fridman
So, so it’s fair to say that most people who
So, so it’s fair to say that most people who
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes, yes.
Yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
… who really know him and work with him tend to stay with him for life?
… who really know him and work with him tend to stay with him for life?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And respect him. That’s important. And his judo isn’t bad either.
And respect him. That’s important. And his judo isn’t bad either.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It was.
It was.
Lex Fridman
He showed me.
He showed me.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It was. It was, it was.
It was. It was, it was.
Lex Fridman
Oh, right, you were just wrestling yesterday. All right.
Oh, right, you were just wrestling yesterday. All right.
Football
Lex Fridman
Let’s talk about football now. I want to ask you something, and I need to be careful here because after yesterday, I realize just how much you know about the game. I can’t even pretend I know what I’m talking about anymore. I need to tread carefully.
Let’s talk about football now. I want to ask you something, and I need to be careful here because after yesterday, I realize just how much you know about the game. I can’t even pretend I know what I’m talking about anymore. I need to tread carefully.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes. If we’re gonna go there- … don’t make any mistakes. I hope you did your research.
Yes. If we’re gonna go there- … don’t make any mistakes. I hope you did your research.
Lex Fridman
I’m shaking now.
I’m shaking now.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You prepared?
You prepared?
Lex Fridman
Wait. We could talk about a lot of interesting teams. You talked about the moment when you fell in love with football. That was the Champions League final in 1998. It was Real Madrid against Juventus. It was the moment when you realized that Real Madrid was your team, the club you’ve continued to love and support ever since. Tell me about that very first moment when you watched the game with your father. What do you remember? You know, this is such an important sport for you, for millions, hundreds of millions, billions of people.
Wait. We could talk about a lot of interesting teams. You talked about the moment when you fell in love with football. That was the Champions League final in 1998. It was Real Madrid against Juventus. It was the moment when you realized that Real Madrid was your team, the club you’ve continued to love and support ever since. Tell me about that very first moment when you watched the game with your father. What do you remember? You know, this is such an important sport for you, for millions, hundreds of millions, billions of people.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Billions, yes.
Billions, yes.
Lex Fridman
What do you remember most about that game, and what did you fall in love with?
What do you remember most about that game, and what did you fall in love with?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, first of all, my father was a huge football fan. He was a good player himself. When we lived in the village, they played almost every day. Football has always been very popular where I’m from. The kids, the young people, everyone plays. In fact, we still have this tradition in the village. As long as I can remember, it was a tradition to… for each street to put together its own team for a tournament with group stages, then the quarterfinals, semifinals, and the final. So it became a real tradition, and everyone would… Everyone there follows football, the kids, the young people. And my father played, too. Whenever there was a big match on, I’d always sit with him in front of the television and watch.
Well, first of all, my father was a huge football fan. He was a good player himself. When we lived in the village, they played almost every day. Football has always been very popular where I’m from. The kids, the young people, everyone plays. In fact, we still have this tradition in the village. As long as I can remember, it was a tradition to… for each street to put together its own team for a tournament with group stages, then the quarterfinals, semifinals, and the final. So it became a real tradition, and everyone would… Everyone there follows football, the kids, the young people. And my father played, too. Whenever there was a big match on, I’d always sit with him in front of the television and watch.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
The first football memory I have that’s really clear and conscious goes back to 1996. I couldn’t tell you where we were watching it. I don’t remember, but I remember sitting next to my father. It was the European Championship semifinal, Germany and England. England lost on penalties at home, and Germany advanced to the final. A few days later, we watched the final as well. We were at someone’s place. We didn’t have a TV at the time, or maybe our channel wasn’t showing the match. I don’t remember. We watched it at somebody’s place. It was Germany against the Czech Republic. Germany won that final. I remember Oliver Bierhoff coming off the bench and scoring. That whole period is still very vivid in my memory. After that, I kept watching football whenever I could.
The first football memory I have that’s really clear and conscious goes back to 1996. I couldn’t tell you where we were watching it. I don’t remember, but I remember sitting next to my father. It was the European Championship semifinal, Germany and England. England lost on penalties at home, and Germany advanced to the final. A few days later, we watched the final as well. We were at someone’s place. We didn’t have a TV at the time, or maybe our channel wasn’t showing the match. I don’t remember. We watched it at somebody’s place. It was Germany against the Czech Republic. Germany won that final. I remember Oliver Bierhoff coming off the bench and scoring. That whole period is still very vivid in my memory. After that, I kept watching football whenever I could.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And I remember the 1998 Champions League final. I watched it with my father. Again, I don’t remember where we watched it, but it was the final, one to zero. Real Madrid won. I can still remember the players who were on the pitch. I was obsessed with football myself. I’d spend hours, days outside playing with a ball, sometimes on my own, sometimes with a group. There was a period when, actually, in the settlement where I lived, in the village, I was pretty much the only kid who had a football. So the older guys would come over. I was maybe nine or ten, and these were boys who were fifteen or sixteen. They’d say, “Khabib, bring the ball out.”
And I remember the 1998 Champions League final. I watched it with my father. Again, I don’t remember where we watched it, but it was the final, one to zero. Real Madrid won. I can still remember the players who were on the pitch. I was obsessed with football myself. I’d spend hours, days outside playing with a ball, sometimes on my own, sometimes with a group. There was a period when, actually, in the settlement where I lived, in the village, I was pretty much the only kid who had a football. So the older guys would come over. I was maybe nine or ten, and these were boys who were fifteen or sixteen. They’d say, “Khabib, bring the ball out.”
Khabib Nurmagomedov
But I’d give them a condition for bringing the ball out. When you’re ten years old, nobody is putting you on a team with fifteen-year-olds, you know. The age gap is just too big. So I’d say, “If I bring the ball, I’m playing.” They go, “All right, bring it out,” and I’d get to play. And the kids my own age didn’t make the team. You know how it is when there are a lot of kids around. Of course, the older boys would take charge. They decide who’s playing. Normally, when you’re ten and they’re fifteen, there was no chance you’d get picked. But I was very lucky. I had the ball, so I always made the team and got to play with them. That’s where it all started, really, you know. That love for football started in my childhood. My father and I always watched the big matches together.
But I’d give them a condition for bringing the ball out. When you’re ten years old, nobody is putting you on a team with fifteen-year-olds, you know. The age gap is just too big. So I’d say, “If I bring the ball, I’m playing.” They go, “All right, bring it out,” and I’d get to play. And the kids my own age didn’t make the team. You know how it is when there are a lot of kids around. Of course, the older boys would take charge. They decide who’s playing. Normally, when you’re ten and they’re fifteen, there was no chance you’d get picked. But I was very lucky. I had the ball, so I always made the team and got to play with them. That’s where it all started, really, you know. That love for football started in my childhood. My father and I always watched the big matches together.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I even remember 1998. I remember being somewhere and literally running home, so I wouldn’t miss the opening ceremony of the tournament in France. I was just running. I ran to my grandfather’s house and said, “Grandpa, put on channel one.” I think it was channel one that was showing the opening. Ronaldo was playing in that tournament. So I sat there watching, and my grandfather looked at me. I was ten. He looked at me and said, “Why are you interested?” I said, “I want to watch.” I sat and watched. The Brazilians won both matches back then, I think. They won against Morocco and lost to the Norwegians.
I even remember 1998. I remember being somewhere and literally running home, so I wouldn’t miss the opening ceremony of the tournament in France. I was just running. I ran to my grandfather’s house and said, “Grandpa, put on channel one.” I think it was channel one that was showing the opening. Ronaldo was playing in that tournament. So I sat there watching, and my grandfather looked at me. I was ten. He looked at me and said, “Why are you interested?” I said, “I want to watch.” I sat and watched. The Brazilians won both matches back then, I think. They won against Morocco and lost to the Norwegians.
Lex Fridman
The opening match was Brazil against Scotland, two-one, right?
The opening match was Brazil against Scotland, two-one, right?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, two to one. So basically, from childhood, I already had that love for football, and then it just grew. I started watching the Champions League, the Euros, the World Cup, and later the domestic leagues, mostly the Premier League. So that’s where this passion comes from.
Yeah, two to one. So basically, from childhood, I already had that love for football, and then it just grew. I started watching the Champions League, the Euros, the World Cup, and later the domestic leagues, mostly the Premier League. So that’s where this passion comes from.
Lex Fridman
And what about national teams? Brazil was your team growing up, right? That legendary Brazil team.
And what about national teams? Brazil was your team growing up, right? That legendary Brazil team.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I like Brazil, yes. I also like the Netherlands. Those national teams, Brazil and the Netherlands, those were the ones that really appealed to me.
I like Brazil, yes. I also like the Netherlands. Those national teams, Brazil and the Netherlands, those were the ones that really appealed to me.
Lex Fridman
And what about clubs? What were the main teams that you supported?
And what about clubs? What were the main teams that you supported?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It varied. I never had one national team that I’d say was my favorite team.
It varied. I never had one national team that I’d say was my favorite team.
Lex Fridman
Ah, you didn’t?
Ah, you didn’t?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I didn’t. Today, I don’t feel the same way about the Netherlands. But back then, I really liked that Dutch team a lot. Van der Sar, Reiziger, van Bronckhorst, Overmars, Davids, Seedorf, van Nistelrooy, Makaay. That old lineup. Kluivert. Now it’s not the same. That era is gone. They just don’t have players like that anymore. In that sense, there’s been a bit of a drop-off for the national team. The same with Brazil. Back then, they were incredibly strong, but today it’s not at that same level anymore. But when it comes to the club, the club I follow, that’s Real Madrid. That’s the one. But if we’re talking about leagues overall, then because of the competition and the way the league is played, I’d say the English Premier League.
I didn’t. Today, I don’t feel the same way about the Netherlands. But back then, I really liked that Dutch team a lot. Van der Sar, Reiziger, van Bronckhorst, Overmars, Davids, Seedorf, van Nistelrooy, Makaay. That old lineup. Kluivert. Now it’s not the same. That era is gone. They just don’t have players like that anymore. In that sense, there’s been a bit of a drop-off for the national team. The same with Brazil. Back then, they were incredibly strong, but today it’s not at that same level anymore. But when it comes to the club, the club I follow, that’s Real Madrid. That’s the one. But if we’re talking about leagues overall, then because of the competition and the way the league is played, I’d say the English Premier League.
Lex Fridman
And in the Premier League, do you follow Man U, City?
And in the Premier League, do you follow Man U, City?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Not in a way where I have one team, no. I like them. They’re both top clubs. They’re big clubs. I watch them. I follow them. It just depends. But it’s not like I have one favorite. I do like City, Manchester City. In recent years, they’ve been winning almost everything. They’ve dominated for the last ten years. But if we look more closely at Manchester City, there’s been a bit of a dip over the last two seasons. And then you also have the rise of Arsenal in the last couple of seasons, a very well-structured team under Arteta. They’re really on the rise this season. They’re leading the league, doing well in the Champions League. They’re leading domestically as well, so I don’t know how far they’ll go, but they’re aiming for the treble this season.
Not in a way where I have one team, no. I like them. They’re both top clubs. They’re big clubs. I watch them. I follow them. It just depends. But it’s not like I have one favorite. I do like City, Manchester City. In recent years, they’ve been winning almost everything. They’ve dominated for the last ten years. But if we look more closely at Manchester City, there’s been a bit of a dip over the last two seasons. And then you also have the rise of Arsenal in the last couple of seasons, a very well-structured team under Arteta. They’re really on the rise this season. They’re leading the league, doing well in the Champions League. They’re leading domestically as well, so I don’t know how far they’ll go, but they’re aiming for the treble this season.
Messi vs Ronaldo
Lex Fridman
I wanna ask because we lived through such a moment in sports history- … that we might never see anything like it again. I’m talking about this, this rivalry between Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Of course, since you love Real Madrid, you know, you naturally love Cristiano Ronaldo, but what can you say about it? A lot of people call him the absolute best, and for many, Messi is number one. There’s also a very good book about their rivalry. I recommend it. It basically tells the story of modern football through their rivalry, Messi versus Ronaldo, one rivalry, almost 20-year era. Two GOATs in an era that remade the world’s game. So it’s been 20 years. So what can you say? Why do you consider Cristiano Ronaldo a great footballer? What do you like about him? Let’s start with Ronaldo.
I wanna ask because we lived through such a moment in sports history- … that we might never see anything like it again. I’m talking about this, this rivalry between Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Of course, since you love Real Madrid, you know, you naturally love Cristiano Ronaldo, but what can you say about it? A lot of people call him the absolute best, and for many, Messi is number one. There’s also a very good book about their rivalry. I recommend it. It basically tells the story of modern football through their rivalry, Messi versus Ronaldo, one rivalry, almost 20-year era. Two GOATs in an era that remade the world’s game. So it’s been 20 years. So what can you say? Why do you consider Cristiano Ronaldo a great footballer? What do you like about him? Let’s start with Ronaldo.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, he’s a natural born athlete. He is… God gave him the athleticism, and he managed to maintain it. There are many who have lost it. There are many players who have talent, physical ability, but they are lazy. But he has it all, athleticism, talent, hard work, everything, and then there’s this. He played in Manchester. He moved. He shone in Portugal at Sporting, then moved to Manchester.
Well, he’s a natural born athlete. He is… God gave him the athleticism, and he managed to maintain it. There are many who have lost it. There are many players who have talent, physical ability, but they are lazy. But he has it all, athleticism, talent, hard work, everything, and then there’s this. He played in Manchester. He moved. He shone in Portugal at Sporting, then moved to Manchester.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And it’s not easy to make your mark at Manchester. From 2003 to 2008, he became a star there, and what he achieved in 2008, just look at how many individual trophies he won and how much he won with his team. You can even look it up. Just search what Cristiano Ronaldo achieved in 2008. It’s simply unbelievable. And then he moved from Manchester. He transferred to an even more difficult club, Real Madrid, nine years at Real Madrid. Five years at Manchester United, then nine years at Real Madrid. That’s about 15 years. You’re under constant pressure at the two biggest clubs in the history of football, and at both clubs, at both clubs, he became the best. That’s very difficult.
And it’s not easy to make your mark at Manchester. From 2003 to 2008, he became a star there, and what he achieved in 2008, just look at how many individual trophies he won and how much he won with his team. You can even look it up. Just search what Cristiano Ronaldo achieved in 2008. It’s simply unbelievable. And then he moved from Manchester. He transferred to an even more difficult club, Real Madrid, nine years at Real Madrid. Five years at Manchester United, then nine years at Real Madrid. That’s about 15 years. You’re under constant pressure at the two biggest clubs in the history of football, and at both clubs, at both clubs, he became the best. That’s very difficult.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, look here. Three Premier League titles came during his time at Manchester United.
Yeah, look here. Three Premier League titles came during his time at Manchester United.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Look at 2008 specifically, what he accomplished then. He won the Premier League. He won the UEFA Champions League. Individually, he won the Golden Boot, top score in the Champions League, the Premier League, every major trophy. But the point is that at Manchester, he spent five years performing at the highest level under enormous pressure. Then he spent nine years at Real Madrid.
Look at 2008 specifically, what he accomplished then. He won the Premier League. He won the UEFA Champions League. Individually, he won the Golden Boot, top score in the Champions League, the Premier League, every major trophy. But the point is that at Manchester, he spent five years performing at the highest level under enormous pressure. Then he spent nine years at Real Madrid.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
After that, he moved to Juventus, but only for a short time, and this is the part people tend to forget. He spent three seasons at Juventus, and he also won both the Italian championship and the Super Cup there and scored 100 goals. And just the fact that for 20 years, let’s say 22 or 23 years, he’s been at the highest level. Look at how many goals he scored, and now he’s closing in on 1,000. Will Messi ever reach that number is the big question. Next season, he scores 40 goals in a season, and he’s less than 40 goals away from the 1,000-goal mark. That’s how unique he is in that regard. But just because I’m a Real Madrid fan doesn’t mean I downplay what Messi has achieved. It’s impossible to downplay what Messi’s done.
After that, he moved to Juventus, but only for a short time, and this is the part people tend to forget. He spent three seasons at Juventus, and he also won both the Italian championship and the Super Cup there and scored 100 goals. And just the fact that for 20 years, let’s say 22 or 23 years, he’s been at the highest level. Look at how many goals he scored, and now he’s closing in on 1,000. Will Messi ever reach that number is the big question. Next season, he scores 40 goals in a season, and he’s less than 40 goals away from the 1,000-goal mark. That’s how unique he is in that regard. But just because I’m a Real Madrid fan doesn’t mean I downplay what Messi has achieved. It’s impossible to downplay what Messi’s done.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You have to give him the credit he deserves, but I wouldn’t want to put one of them above the other. If I’m being honest, both of them, watching each other, competing with each other, they stayed there. Would Messi be Messi without Ronaldo? Would Ronaldo be Ronaldo without Messi? Those are big questions. I’m convinced they watched each other closely. They always have, and they still do now. For almost 20 years, they’ve been watching each other, pushing each other, and constantly improving. They were already the best, but that drove them even further. By competing against one another, they pulled so far ahead of the rest.
You have to give him the credit he deserves, but I wouldn’t want to put one of them above the other. If I’m being honest, both of them, watching each other, competing with each other, they stayed there. Would Messi be Messi without Ronaldo? Would Ronaldo be Ronaldo without Messi? Those are big questions. I’m convinced they watched each other closely. They always have, and they still do now. For almost 20 years, they’ve been watching each other, pushing each other, and constantly improving. They were already the best, but that drove them even further. By competing against one another, they pulled so far ahead of the rest.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Whether you’re talking about achievements, trophies, and all that, and in that sense, their rivalry truly elevated the entire sport. More people started following football because of them, watching the games. So I believe both of them deserve tremendous respect.
Whether you’re talking about achievements, trophies, and all that, and in that sense, their rivalry truly elevated the entire sport. More people started following football because of them, watching the games. So I believe both of them deserve tremendous respect.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I’d say I completely agree with you that if Messi hadn’t had Ronaldo and Ronaldo hadn’t had Messi-
Yeah. I’d say I completely agree with you that if Messi hadn’t had Ronaldo and Ronaldo hadn’t had Messi-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, would they have gone that far?
Yeah, would they have gone that far?
Lex Fridman
I don’t think so.
I don’t think so.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It’s an open question.
It’s an open question.
Lex Fridman
I don’t think so. But for me, there is nobody like Messi, his pure love for the game for its own sake.
I don’t think so. But for me, there is nobody like Messi, his pure love for the game for its own sake.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You’re a Barca guy? Oh, really? Yeah, I can tell from the way you’re talking about it, the way you…
You’re a Barca guy? Oh, really? Yeah, I can tell from the way you’re talking about it, the way you…
Lex Fridman
You got me.
You got me.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Nothing against it, but…
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Nothing against it, but…
Lex Fridman
Yes, sure. Well, I mean, Iniesta, Xavi, Busquets, Puyol, that was a legendary team.
Yes, sure. Well, I mean, Iniesta, Xavi, Busquets, Puyol, that was a legendary team.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes. No, but look, you can compare them like this. Iniesta, Xavi, Busquets, Messi, Ronaldinho, Piqué.
Yes. No, but look, you can compare them like this. Iniesta, Xavi, Busquets, Messi, Ronaldinho, Piqué.
Lex Fridman
Ronaldinho, yes.
Ronaldinho, yes.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Ronaldinho, he was a bit earlier. That Barcelona team from roughly 2008 to 2012, that four-year period, only one team in history can compare with them, Real Madrid from 2014 to 2018. They won in 2014, in 2016, 2017, and 2018. The only interruption was Barcelona’s team with Neymar.
Ronaldinho, he was a bit earlier. That Barcelona team from roughly 2008 to 2012, that four-year period, only one team in history can compare with them, Real Madrid from 2014 to 2018. They won in 2014, in 2016, 2017, and 2018. The only interruption was Barcelona’s team with Neymar.
Lex Fridman
With Neymar, yes.
With Neymar, yes.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
With Suarez and Messi, that was 2015. Well, let’s leave that aside. But, you know, with Modrić, Kroos, Casemiro, Ronaldo, Benzema, Marcelo, Carvajal, Casillas, and this team compared to Víctor Valdés, Piqué, Puyol, Dani Alves, Jordi Alba, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Villa, and Messi, for me, those are the two greatest teams. Different generations, different squads. For me, they truly represent a true dream team in football, at club level. That’s the comparison. But if we look at the national team level you could pick France in 1998. That 1998 France team is very close to a perfect team, and also 2002 Brazil. In 2002, they were extremely strong.
With Suarez and Messi, that was 2015. Well, let’s leave that aside. But, you know, with Modrić, Kroos, Casemiro, Ronaldo, Benzema, Marcelo, Carvajal, Casillas, and this team compared to Víctor Valdés, Piqué, Puyol, Dani Alves, Jordi Alba, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Villa, and Messi, for me, those are the two greatest teams. Different generations, different squads. For me, they truly represent a true dream team in football, at club level. That’s the comparison. But if we look at the national team level you could pick France in 1998. That 1998 France team is very close to a perfect team, and also 2002 Brazil. In 2002, they were extremely strong.
Lex Fridman
Yes, you had Ronaldo.
Yes, you had Ronaldo.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You had Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho, Roberto Carlos, Cafu. You had Emerson. You had Kleberson, I think Roque Junior, Lucio, Edmilson. And beyond those superstar names, there were also very strong players who kind of stayed in the shadow of those stars. Stayed in their shadow. So Brazil 2002, France 1998, and then there was then later Spain from Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup, and Euro 2012. That period, too, Spain. The Spanish national team was close to perfect.
You had Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho, Roberto Carlos, Cafu. You had Emerson. You had Kleberson, I think Roque Junior, Lucio, Edmilson. And beyond those superstar names, there were also very strong players who kind of stayed in the shadow of those stars. Stayed in their shadow. So Brazil 2002, France 1998, and then there was then later Spain from Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup, and Euro 2012. That period, too, Spain. The Spanish national team was close to perfect.
Lex Fridman
I wanted to go back to France. You mentioned Zidane. I really, really respect and admire him. There was this moment psychologically very interesting, almost Shakespearean moment in his career when it ended with, ended with that… How do you even call it?
I wanted to go back to France. You mentioned Zidane. I really, really respect and admire him. There was this moment psychologically very interesting, almost Shakespearean moment in his career when it ended with, ended with that… How do you even call it?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
A headbutt. A headbutt to the chest.
A headbutt. A headbutt to the chest.
Lex Fridman
What’s interesting is, I don’t know, looking at your fight with Conor- When emotion builds up, for most of it you’re focused on the game, but in the end you let that emotion out. What do you think about that headbutt?
What’s interesting is, I don’t know, looking at your fight with Conor- When emotion builds up, for most of it you’re focused on the game, but in the end you let that emotion out. What do you think about that headbutt?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I wouldn’t want to judge him, wouldn’t want to be some kind of judge of what he did, no. Well, he did what he did. We don’t know what was really going on there. But as a player, of course, he was unique. He won the Euros, the World Cup, reached finals, won the Champions League, the Spanish and the Italian championships, and cups, too. It’s just unique, and the way he played, I just always remembered him for the way sweat was just pouring off him, the way he ran, how he gave everything in every single match. He had incredible stamina, incredible endurance. I think a lot of people listening to this podcast may not have watched Zidane playing live. When I say live, I mean watching him play in real time.
I wouldn’t want to judge him, wouldn’t want to be some kind of judge of what he did, no. Well, he did what he did. We don’t know what was really going on there. But as a player, of course, he was unique. He won the Euros, the World Cup, reached finals, won the Champions League, the Spanish and the Italian championships, and cups, too. It’s just unique, and the way he played, I just always remembered him for the way sweat was just pouring off him, the way he ran, how he gave everything in every single match. He had incredible stamina, incredible endurance. I think a lot of people listening to this podcast may not have watched Zidane playing live. When I say live, I mean watching him play in real time.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I personally didn’t see his games live. I was younger then. But I did watch many of his matches later on. I remember the goals he scored in World Cup finals in 1998 and 2006, especially the headers, and even that penalty, the Champions League final, European championships, the way he played, the way he handled the ball, the way the ball was glued to his feet, his movements, and then his charisma. It’s rare to find all of that in one player. You don’t see that combination often. There are many very good players, but sometimes they’re just not that interesting to watch. You know what I mean? I don’t want to give specific examples because someone might take it the wrong way, so I won’t name anyone.
I personally didn’t see his games live. I was younger then. But I did watch many of his matches later on. I remember the goals he scored in World Cup finals in 1998 and 2006, especially the headers, and even that penalty, the Champions League final, European championships, the way he played, the way he handled the ball, the way the ball was glued to his feet, his movements, and then his charisma. It’s rare to find all of that in one player. You don’t see that combination often. There are many very good players, but sometimes they’re just not that interesting to watch. You know what I mean? I don’t want to give specific examples because someone might take it the wrong way, so I won’t name anyone.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
But there are players who are phenomenal in terms of their physical attributes: fast, explosive, effective. But they don’t have charisma, that energy that makes people want to watch them, and I don’t think that’s their fault. But with Zidane, everything came together. You always wanted to watch him play. You always want to watch Ronaldo play. You always want to watch Beckham play. You want to watch Edgar Davids running around the field in those glasses, his hair bouncing behind him, right? You still wanted to watch the way Barthez played in goal. No matter how many bizarre goals he conceded, you still wanted to watch him play. Or Oliver Kahn, the way he stood in goal and directed the whole team, the way he would rush out to the ball, the way strikers were afraid of him.
But there are players who are phenomenal in terms of their physical attributes: fast, explosive, effective. But they don’t have charisma, that energy that makes people want to watch them, and I don’t think that’s their fault. But with Zidane, everything came together. You always wanted to watch him play. You always want to watch Ronaldo play. You always want to watch Beckham play. You want to watch Edgar Davids running around the field in those glasses, his hair bouncing behind him, right? You still wanted to watch the way Barthez played in goal. No matter how many bizarre goals he conceded, you still wanted to watch him play. Or Oliver Kahn, the way he stood in goal and directed the whole team, the way he would rush out to the ball, the way strikers were afraid of him.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I mean, so many strikers have admitted that they were afraid if they found themselves one-on-one with Oliver Kahn in the penalty area. You always wanted to watch Roberto Carlos take a free kick or storm down the left flank. You always wanted to see Cafu or Míchel Salgado make an overlapping run. The way Vieira stood there as the defensive midfielder or somebody like Maldini or like Rio Ferdinand or somebody like that, you wanted to watch Casillas in goal. So, you know, for me, and maybe for our generation, those players had something special.
I mean, so many strikers have admitted that they were afraid if they found themselves one-on-one with Oliver Kahn in the penalty area. You always wanted to watch Roberto Carlos take a free kick or storm down the left flank. You always wanted to see Cafu or Míchel Salgado make an overlapping run. The way Vieira stood there as the defensive midfielder or somebody like Maldini or like Rio Ferdinand or somebody like that, you wanted to watch Casillas in goal. So, you know, for me, and maybe for our generation, those players had something special.
Lex Fridman
Can you try to explain what charisma is? Like you said, there are good players, and then there is Zidane.
Can you try to explain what charisma is? Like you said, there are good players, and then there is Zidane.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It’s very difficult to explain. You either have it or you don’t. Personality, right?
It’s very difficult to explain. You either have it or you don’t. Personality, right?
Lex Fridman
Yes, but there are so many different forms of it. Zidane, in a way, almost moved slowly, in a way.
Yes, but there are so many different forms of it. Zidane, in a way, almost moved slowly, in a way.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
But he’d carry the ball from midfield into attack incredibly quickly. So it’s very hard to put into words, hard to explain it.
But he’d carry the ball from midfield into attack incredibly quickly. So it’s very hard to put into words, hard to explain it.
Lex Fridman
And both Ronaldos had that. I mean, the Brazilian Ronaldo too, the way he played in those World Cups.
And both Ronaldos had that. I mean, the Brazilian Ronaldo too, the way he played in those World Cups.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
It was just phenomenal.
It was just phenomenal.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
’98, 2002. Even in 2006 when he was already past his peak. He was so fascinating to watch. Seriously, how many people turned on their TVs just to watch Ronaldo? People knew that was it, that in 2010 he wouldn’t be playing. And even in 2006, he wasn’t really in his prime. But still, so many people turned on the TV just to watch him play. And Zidane, 2006 was really, you know, the peak of that whole generation of legends that had been building since ’98, 2000, 2002, and ’04. All the cream of the crop came in. Most of them weren’t at their physical peak anymore, but the names were still there. Honestly, I think that for football fans, I’d recommend just looking up the teams and the lineups from the 2006 World Cup. Look at the rosters. Every single team had stars you wanted to watch.
’98, 2002. Even in 2006 when he was already past his peak. He was so fascinating to watch. Seriously, how many people turned on their TVs just to watch Ronaldo? People knew that was it, that in 2010 he wouldn’t be playing. And even in 2006, he wasn’t really in his prime. But still, so many people turned on the TV just to watch him play. And Zidane, 2006 was really, you know, the peak of that whole generation of legends that had been building since ’98, 2000, 2002, and ’04. All the cream of the crop came in. Most of them weren’t at their physical peak anymore, but the names were still there. Honestly, I think that for football fans, I’d recommend just looking up the teams and the lineups from the 2006 World Cup. Look at the rosters. Every single team had stars you wanted to watch.
Lex Fridman
Speaking of teams, what style of football do you like? You prefer short passing, long balls, individual plays, you know, like Maradona carrying the ball or, of course, Cristiano Ronaldo taking the ball and scoring himself?
Speaking of teams, what style of football do you like? You prefer short passing, long balls, individual plays, you know, like Maradona carrying the ball or, of course, Cristiano Ronaldo taking the ball and scoring himself?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Mostly those who take the initiative.
Mostly those who take the initiative.
Lex Fridman
You like that?
You like that?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, definitely. I like players who are willing to take the initiative. I was recently talking to Zlatan about this, and he said, “It drives me crazy when I have players on my team who, when you pass them the ball, they immediately get rid of it. They don’t want to take the initiative.” When you have three or more players on the team, if there are three people on the team who are not afraid to make mistakes, that’s usually enough. They take the initiative, take control of the game, drive the team forward, make mistakes, but they keep trying. And then there are others who hide, he says. They get the ball and immediately pass it to someone else. Just don’t give it to me. Not me. Not me. They just want to get rid of the ball. It’s like…
Yeah, definitely. I like players who are willing to take the initiative. I was recently talking to Zlatan about this, and he said, “It drives me crazy when I have players on my team who, when you pass them the ball, they immediately get rid of it. They don’t want to take the initiative.” When you have three or more players on the team, if there are three people on the team who are not afraid to make mistakes, that’s usually enough. They take the initiative, take control of the game, drive the team forward, make mistakes, but they keep trying. And then there are others who hide, he says. They get the ball and immediately pass it to someone else. Just don’t give it to me. Not me. Not me. They just want to get rid of the ball. It’s like…
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You know, it’s like something one of Zidane’s coaches once said. If you don’t know what to do with the ball, give it to Zidane. He’ll figure it out, so… You see, that’s the thing. It’s a quality, mm, not every player has. You’re taking the ball. You’re taking responsibility. You’re taking the initiative. You are not afraid to fail. You’re not afraid to make a mistake. Cristiano had a moment like that. He missed a penalty, and later in the same match, he stepped up to take another one. Think about that. You take the first penalty. You miss it. Then another penalty comes along, and you still step up to take it. Because if you miss two penalties in the same game, you’re under a lot of pressure, right? But that’s the point. You’re not afraid to fail.
You know, it’s like something one of Zidane’s coaches once said. If you don’t know what to do with the ball, give it to Zidane. He’ll figure it out, so… You see, that’s the thing. It’s a quality, mm, not every player has. You’re taking the ball. You’re taking responsibility. You’re taking the initiative. You are not afraid to fail. You’re not afraid to make a mistake. Cristiano had a moment like that. He missed a penalty, and later in the same match, he stepped up to take another one. Think about that. You take the first penalty. You miss it. Then another penalty comes along, and you still step up to take it. Because if you miss two penalties in the same game, you’re under a lot of pressure, right? But that’s the point. You’re not afraid to fail.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
As a leader, you take the initiative, and you’re willing to take risks. That’s honestly the beauty of it, the beauty of sports in general. The bigger the risk, the bigger the potential for greatness. If there’s no risk, then there’s no… You can’t make, can’t put yourself in the category of athletes people will talk about as some of the best ever.
As a leader, you take the initiative, and you’re willing to take risks. That’s honestly the beauty of it, the beauty of sports in general. The bigger the risk, the bigger the potential for greatness. If there’s no risk, then there’s no… You can’t make, can’t put yourself in the category of athletes people will talk about as some of the best ever.
Lex Fridman
Especially when it’s a high-level game like the World Cup and…
Especially when it’s a high-level game like the World Cup and…
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes. The more risk, the sweeter the victory. There must be risk.
Yes. The more risk, the sweeter the victory. There must be risk.
Lex Fridman
That’s why they often speak of Maradona as a great player. There are many great players. He’s great-
That’s why they often speak of Maradona as a great player. There are many great players. He’s great-
Khabib Nurmagomedov
One of them, yeah
One of them, yeah
Lex Fridman
…for many reasons. But one reason is that he kinda carried the team on his shoulders.
…for many reasons. But one reason is that he kinda carried the team on his shoulders.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
He took the initiative and carried them. That’s when he led Napoli, you know? When he led Napoli to the league title. Who knew Napoli then? Maradona came from Barcelona to Napoli and made them champions, and the whole stadium was named after him. Many guys played in Napoli, but there was never anyone like Maradona. And recently, I saw somewhere, or I think someone pointed out, the pressure on the guys who are transferring to Napoli. Whoever you are, you will always be in Maradona’s shadow, and you stay in the shadow because fans will never give you the credit you might deserve because they will always compare you to him. Are you Maradona or not? And if you’re not Maradona, you will never get full recognition.
He took the initiative and carried them. That’s when he led Napoli, you know? When he led Napoli to the league title. Who knew Napoli then? Maradona came from Barcelona to Napoli and made them champions, and the whole stadium was named after him. Many guys played in Napoli, but there was never anyone like Maradona. And recently, I saw somewhere, or I think someone pointed out, the pressure on the guys who are transferring to Napoli. Whoever you are, you will always be in Maradona’s shadow, and you stay in the shadow because fans will never give you the credit you might deserve because they will always compare you to him. Are you Maradona or not? And if you’re not Maradona, you will never get full recognition.
Lex Fridman
I want to say that one of the things that makes Messi great, I think, is that he really had to live in such a shadow of Maradona, and especially with the World Cup. It’s not easy.
I want to say that one of the things that makes Messi great, I think, is that he really had to live in such a shadow of Maradona, and especially with the World Cup. It’s not easy.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
And he came out of it.
And he came out of it.
Lex Fridman
Hard to emerge from that shadow.
Hard to emerge from that shadow.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yes. And he won the World Cup, yeah. In that sense, you have to give Messi his due. I’m addressing the Real Madrid fans now. Ours, yours, both sides.
Yes. And he won the World Cup, yeah. In that sense, you have to give Messi his due. I’m addressing the Real Madrid fans now. Ours, yours, both sides.
Lex Fridman
You’re explaining it to them.
You’re explaining it to them.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
I got you.
I got you.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Most of them, I think even if they don’t like Barcelona, they still recognize Messi’s greatness.
Most of them, I think even if they don’t like Barcelona, they still recognize Messi’s greatness.
Lex Fridman
I know that you met Zlatan. You talked to him. I think he’s one of the most self-confident people in football, in the world in general. What do you think about this confidence? Of course, he’s joking around a little bit, but I think he really believes in himself.
I know that you met Zlatan. You talked to him. I think he’s one of the most self-confident people in football, in the world in general. What do you think about this confidence? Of course, he’s joking around a little bit, but I think he really believes in himself.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, yeah, he does. He does. I’ve known Zlatan for years now. We get along well, and I know his kids, and I like his personality. I like his confidence. I mean, he’s a unique player. There are not many Zlatans in football. You know, wherever he played, he always scored. He’s a goal scorer. He is that kind of center forward, and he always carried the team. He was a leader wherever he transferred. It doesn’t matter. Milan, Inter, Juventus, when he moved to LA Galaxy or Paris Saint-Germain. He was a leader everywhere he went, with the national team, with his clubs. He was always the guy driving the team forward, taking the initiative. And honestly, he cemented his place as one of the greatest players to ever play the game. And yeah, maybe he was…
Well, yeah, he does. He does. I’ve known Zlatan for years now. We get along well, and I know his kids, and I like his personality. I like his confidence. I mean, he’s a unique player. There are not many Zlatans in football. You know, wherever he played, he always scored. He’s a goal scorer. He is that kind of center forward, and he always carried the team. He was a leader wherever he transferred. It doesn’t matter. Milan, Inter, Juventus, when he moved to LA Galaxy or Paris Saint-Germain. He was a leader everywhere he went, with the national team, with his clubs. He was always the guy driving the team forward, taking the initiative. And honestly, he cemented his place as one of the greatest players to ever play the game. And yeah, maybe he was…
Khabib Nurmagomedov
When it comes to trophies, not individual achievements, but team honors, Sweden wasn’t such a– wasn’t exactly the greatest team, and some of the clubs he played for didn’t always win the biggest trophies. But as an athlete, as an individual, as a person, he is very– a very strong athlete.
When it comes to trophies, not individual achievements, but team honors, Sweden wasn’t such a– wasn’t exactly the greatest team, and some of the clubs he played for didn’t always win the biggest trophies. But as an athlete, as an individual, as a person, he is very– a very strong athlete.
Dubai
Lex Fridman
We talked a lot about Dagestan, talked a lot about America. You’re in Dubai a lot these days. Do you like it there? Also, you have spoken very highly about Sheikh Hamdan. What do you like about Dubai? What do you like about this region? And what do you respect about Sheikh Hamdan?
We talked a lot about Dagestan, talked a lot about America. You’re in Dubai a lot these days. Do you like it there? Also, you have spoken very highly about Sheikh Hamdan. What do you like about Dubai? What do you like about this region? And what do you respect about Sheikh Hamdan?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Our team’s been in Dubai for seven to eight years now. We train at the Nad Al Sheba Sports Complex. The NAS Sports Complex, this is under Sheikh Hamdan’s office. It’s like his home, his place. We train there, we eat there, we live there. Sheikh Hamdan helps us with everything and takes care of us. The way he treats us, what he does for us, his support is just limitless. He supports us in everything, and it’s not just one, two, or three years. It’s already been seven or eight years. And I am very, very grateful to him. The way he welcomed us, took us in, and helped us, continues to help, it’s hard to put it into words how grateful we are. Our entire team is very grateful to him, and he knows it. So in general, Dubai has become…
Our team’s been in Dubai for seven to eight years now. We train at the Nad Al Sheba Sports Complex. The NAS Sports Complex, this is under Sheikh Hamdan’s office. It’s like his home, his place. We train there, we eat there, we live there. Sheikh Hamdan helps us with everything and takes care of us. The way he treats us, what he does for us, his support is just limitless. He supports us in everything, and it’s not just one, two, or three years. It’s already been seven or eight years. And I am very, very grateful to him. The way he welcomed us, took us in, and helped us, continues to help, it’s hard to put it into words how grateful we are. Our entire team is very grateful to him, and he knows it. So in general, Dubai has become…
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Actually, the Emirates, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi have become like a second home for us. And so it happened that over the last six or seven years, the UFC has been holding events in Abu Dhabi, and the PFL has been putting on events in Dubai. These are two of the biggest MMA organizations in the world, and a lot of our guys compete there. We arrive before the fight, we stay, we do training camps, they compete. We are incredibly fortunate that we have support at the government level. In Abu Dhabi, we’ve been supported by Sheikh Mohammed, Sheikh Tahnoon, and Sheikh Mansour. And in Dubai, Sheikh Hamdan has really taken us in like his own team, like younger brothers. In that respect, we’ve been incredibly fortunate, and our entire team is deeply grateful for their support.
Actually, the Emirates, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi have become like a second home for us. And so it happened that over the last six or seven years, the UFC has been holding events in Abu Dhabi, and the PFL has been putting on events in Dubai. These are two of the biggest MMA organizations in the world, and a lot of our guys compete there. We arrive before the fight, we stay, we do training camps, they compete. We are incredibly fortunate that we have support at the government level. In Abu Dhabi, we’ve been supported by Sheikh Mohammed, Sheikh Tahnoon, and Sheikh Mansour. And in Dubai, Sheikh Hamdan has really taken us in like his own team, like younger brothers. In that respect, we’ve been incredibly fortunate, and our entire team is deeply grateful for their support.
Lex Fridman
And they’ve created a country that has become one of the world’s central hubs. People from everywhere travel there.
And they’ve created a country that has become one of the world’s central hubs. People from everywhere travel there.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
It’s unique, right? The local population is only around one and a half million people, actually even less than that. But, you know, there’s such an influx of tourists, people, business people, major events, and everything happening in terms of business and sports is just incredible. What’s happening in Dubai and Abu Dhabi is, it’s like nothing else. The only places you could really compare it to are major global cities like New York, London, Paris, Tokyo. But those are huge metropolitan areas with populations of well over twenty million people, and they have centuries of history behind them. And here, they’ve built cities, an entire country really, in just a few decades and turned it into a kind of magnet. It’s like a magnet that attracts everyone.
It’s unique, right? The local population is only around one and a half million people, actually even less than that. But, you know, there’s such an influx of tourists, people, business people, major events, and everything happening in terms of business and sports is just incredible. What’s happening in Dubai and Abu Dhabi is, it’s like nothing else. The only places you could really compare it to are major global cities like New York, London, Paris, Tokyo. But those are huge metropolitan areas with populations of well over twenty million people, and they have centuries of history behind them. And here, they’ve built cities, an entire country really, in just a few decades and turned it into a kind of magnet. It’s like a magnet that attracts everyone.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
The country’s location, its logistics, the sheer number of people coming in, not just visiting, but wanting to move there, live there, and start businesses, it’s remarkable. It’s a unique place in today’s world. With everything that’s happening around the globe right now, this country really stands out because of the opportunities it offers. It’s unique in that sense.
The country’s location, its logistics, the sheer number of people coming in, not just visiting, but wanting to move there, live there, and start businesses, it’s remarkable. It’s a unique place in today’s world. With everything that’s happening around the globe right now, this country really stands out because of the opportunities it offers. It’s unique in that sense.
God
Lex Fridman
Now I’d like to ask you this. For you, your Muslim faith and God, it’s obviously central to your life and to who you are. Can you explain what role God plays in your life?
Now I’d like to ask you this. For you, your Muslim faith and God, it’s obviously central to your life and to who you are. Can you explain what role God plays in your life?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, first of all, I was born, raised, and brought up in a Muslim family, in a Muslim community. Since childhood, religion’s always been the most important thing for me. And when I say religion, the first thing I mean is Salah, Namaz. And my entire life in general, my daily routine, the way I lived, trained, studied, and everything else has always been built around Salah. The rest was scheduled around it. Even today, when I was choosing time for this podcast, I knew we’d be talking for a couple of hours, so I deliberately picked a time right after the midday prayer. I pray, come here, finish up here with you, and then go pray again. That’s how my life’s been, and still is, and that’s how it will continue to be, I hope.
Well, first of all, I was born, raised, and brought up in a Muslim family, in a Muslim community. Since childhood, religion’s always been the most important thing for me. And when I say religion, the first thing I mean is Salah, Namaz. And my entire life in general, my daily routine, the way I lived, trained, studied, and everything else has always been built around Salah. The rest was scheduled around it. Even today, when I was choosing time for this podcast, I knew we’d be talking for a couple of hours, so I deliberately picked a time right after the midday prayer. I pray, come here, finish up here with you, and then go pray again. That’s how my life’s been, and still is, and that’s how it will continue to be, I hope.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I’ve always tried to organize my life around worship, because first and foremost, my purpose in this life is to worship the one God. Everything that happens after that is secondary, so to speak. And faith in God and learning more and just striving to get closer to God, that continues throughout our entire lives. So in that regard, I’m very grateful to the Almighty for opening this door of understanding and reflection for me, for helping me realize that we are all servants of God and that our purpose in life is to serve one God.
I’ve always tried to organize my life around worship, because first and foremost, my purpose in this life is to worship the one God. Everything that happens after that is secondary, so to speak. And faith in God and learning more and just striving to get closer to God, that continues throughout our entire lives. So in that regard, I’m very grateful to the Almighty for opening this door of understanding and reflection for me, for helping me realize that we are all servants of God and that our purpose in life is to serve one God.
Lex Fridman
And as you were explaining that helped you in your career in the sense that, you know, psychologically, by keeping you from letting success go to your head?
And as you were explaining that helped you in your career in the sense that, you know, psychologically, by keeping you from letting success go to your head?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
That helped me with everything. I’ve always placed my only hope in the Almighty. Whatever situation I might face, I’ve always believed that only the Almighty can truly make it easier for me. And when it comes to not letting success go to your head, not becoming proud, not becoming full of yourself, religion and my faith in Allah have helped me with that too. I truly believe that only faith can help a person get through life’s hardest trials. And sometimes I think about people who suffer the loss of a loved one, someone very close to them.
That helped me with everything. I’ve always placed my only hope in the Almighty. Whatever situation I might face, I’ve always believed that only the Almighty can truly make it easier for me. And when it comes to not letting success go to your head, not becoming proud, not becoming full of yourself, religion and my faith in Allah have helped me with that too. I truly believe that only faith can help a person get through life’s hardest trials. And sometimes I think about people who suffer the loss of a loved one, someone very close to them.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
For example, when I lost my father, I remember thinking to myself, “If I didn’t believe in the Almighty, if I didn’t have faith in God and understand that it was predestined, that we all come into this world and then leave it, that no one stays here forever, that no one belongs to anyone, and we all belong to the Almighty, and that we will all return to Him, I don’t know how I would have coped with it.” I’m a very emotional person. I think it would have been extremely difficult for me to go through all of that without faith. In that sense, I feel fortunate to have this understanding.
For example, when I lost my father, I remember thinking to myself, “If I didn’t believe in the Almighty, if I didn’t have faith in God and understand that it was predestined, that we all come into this world and then leave it, that no one stays here forever, that no one belongs to anyone, and we all belong to the Almighty, and that we will all return to Him, I don’t know how I would have coped with it.” I’m a very emotional person. I think it would have been extremely difficult for me to go through all of that without faith. In that sense, I feel fortunate to have this understanding.
Lex Fridman
So faith really helped you when you lost your father?
So faith really helped you when you lost your father?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
This was the only thing that helped. Nothing else worked. I know a couple of people who have lost someone very close to them, and they struggle to accept it. They would ask, “Why? Why? Why?” So many questions. I told them, to answer that question, you need to go deeper into religion and try to understand why were you even born in the first place, and why do these thoughts even come into your head? And what if you didn’t have any thoughts at all? What if you couldn’t think, couldn’t understand anything? These thoughts, this awareness, your mind, your abilities, none of that was there before. Then it appeared. Why? That’s the question. None of us existed. Then we were born. We were little. We weren’t aware of anything. We didn’t remember anything.
This was the only thing that helped. Nothing else worked. I know a couple of people who have lost someone very close to them, and they struggle to accept it. They would ask, “Why? Why? Why?” So many questions. I told them, to answer that question, you need to go deeper into religion and try to understand why were you even born in the first place, and why do these thoughts even come into your head? And what if you didn’t have any thoughts at all? What if you couldn’t think, couldn’t understand anything? These thoughts, this awareness, your mind, your abilities, none of that was there before. Then it appeared. Why? That’s the question. None of us existed. Then we were born. We were little. We weren’t aware of anything. We didn’t remember anything.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Then little by little, we grew up and became adults. We became successful, became somebody. We became who we are. So why did all of this come specifically to you? There are so many questions like that. And so these questions are, let’s say, a kind of guide through life. And for me that’s what religion is. It guides me and helps me.
Then little by little, we grew up and became adults. We became successful, became somebody. We became who we are. So why did all of this come specifically to you? There are so many questions like that. And so these questions are, let’s say, a kind of guide through life. And for me that’s what religion is. It guides me and helps me.
Lex Fridman
You often say, “Alhamdulillah, all praise to God.” That’s very powerful, that sense of gratitude. Can you tell us, can you explain why you say it so often?
You often say, “Alhamdulillah, all praise to God.” That’s very powerful, that sense of gratitude. Can you tell us, can you explain why you say it so often?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
You know the saying, the tongue speaks what the heart is full of. The way you speak shows what’s in your heart. If you have something dark in your heart, your words will show it, no doubt. We all have some dark parts in our hearts. Every single person has them. Sometimes they come out in what we say, how we express ourselves, what we share with people, and so on. Everyone has that. But if your heart is mostly good and pure, then that will also be reflected in your speech. And I just like praising the Almighty and giving all the credit for my success back to Him because everything we have is given to us by the Almighty.
You know the saying, the tongue speaks what the heart is full of. The way you speak shows what’s in your heart. If you have something dark in your heart, your words will show it, no doubt. We all have some dark parts in our hearts. Every single person has them. Sometimes they come out in what we say, how we express ourselves, what we share with people, and so on. Everyone has that. But if your heart is mostly good and pure, then that will also be reflected in your speech. And I just like praising the Almighty and giving all the credit for my success back to Him because everything we have is given to us by the Almighty.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Throughout history, there have been many people who made big mistakes after becoming successful, powerful, and wealthy, and they started saying, “No, no, this happened to me because I’m so great, because I’m so intelligent, because I had vision, because I’ve got the brains, because I’m extremely capable. That’s why all of this came my way.” But at the same time, there were many others who worked just as hard, who weren’t any less intelligent, and the Almighty just didn’t give it to them. He chose you and gave it to you, and you just have to give the credit back to Him. You shouldn’t take the credit for yourself. That’s what I believe. And it’s something I’ve come to through studying my religion.
Throughout history, there have been many people who made big mistakes after becoming successful, powerful, and wealthy, and they started saying, “No, no, this happened to me because I’m so great, because I’m so intelligent, because I had vision, because I’ve got the brains, because I’m extremely capable. That’s why all of this came my way.” But at the same time, there were many others who worked just as hard, who weren’t any less intelligent, and the Almighty just didn’t give it to them. He chose you and gave it to you, and you just have to give the credit back to Him. You shouldn’t take the credit for yourself. That’s what I believe. And it’s something I’ve come to through studying my religion.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I understand that everything the Almighty has given to me is not because of who I am. It’s simply something God has given me as a test to test me and, in the end, see which of my deeds outweigh the others, the good or the bad. Because as a believer, I believe that there will be judgment and everything we have, everything we do, every action we take, we will be held accountable for it. There will be a day of judgment, there will be scales, and everything will be weighed.
I understand that everything the Almighty has given to me is not because of who I am. It’s simply something God has given me as a test to test me and, in the end, see which of my deeds outweigh the others, the good or the bad. Because as a believer, I believe that there will be judgment and everything we have, everything we do, every action we take, we will be held accountable for it. There will be a day of judgment, there will be scales, and everything will be weighed.
Advice for young people
Lex Fridman
What advice would you give young people about life and their careers? Millions of people are watching you and deeply respect you. What would you say about how to live your life? And how do you find your path and stay on it?
What advice would you give young people about life and their careers? Millions of people are watching you and deeply respect you. What would you say about how to live your life? And how do you find your path and stay on it?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Well, I wouldn’t want to speak just from my own perspective. I’d rather bring people back to the scripture, to what the Almighty said, “Read.” That’s the first word revealed in the Holy Quran. The first command is read or ikra. So to everyone listening to or watching this podcast, I would want to bring them back to that. Read, meaning what? Educate yourself, observe, learn, improve, but don’t stay in one place. And anything a person is truly looking for, if they genuinely want to find it, not just find an answer, but find the truth, they can reach it, but they can never reach it without reading. They need to read. When a person reads, what they read enters them into their body, their heart, their mind, and it triggers a search.
Well, I wouldn’t want to speak just from my own perspective. I’d rather bring people back to the scripture, to what the Almighty said, “Read.” That’s the first word revealed in the Holy Quran. The first command is read or ikra. So to everyone listening to or watching this podcast, I would want to bring them back to that. Read, meaning what? Educate yourself, observe, learn, improve, but don’t stay in one place. And anything a person is truly looking for, if they genuinely want to find it, not just find an answer, but find the truth, they can reach it, but they can never reach it without reading. They need to read. When a person reads, what they read enters them into their body, their heart, their mind, and it triggers a search.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
A search for knowledge begins inside them, but if you don’t read, you won’t find anything. Just listening to someone is one thing, but reading is something different. So my advice would be read and find within yourself the strength to come closer to one God and seek to understand why we were sent here in the first place. Today, you and me, we’re almost the same age. So let’s just think about this. For example, my grandfather on my mother’s side passed away in two thousand and three. Now it’s twenty twenty-six. He’s been lying in the grave for twenty-three years. And then there was his grandfather, or let’s say his great-grandfather who also died and has been in the grave for over a hundred years, roughly speaking. But what about people who died two thousand years ago?
A search for knowledge begins inside them, but if you don’t read, you won’t find anything. Just listening to someone is one thing, but reading is something different. So my advice would be read and find within yourself the strength to come closer to one God and seek to understand why we were sent here in the first place. Today, you and me, we’re almost the same age. So let’s just think about this. For example, my grandfather on my mother’s side passed away in two thousand and three. Now it’s twenty twenty-six. He’s been lying in the grave for twenty-three years. And then there was his grandfather, or let’s say his great-grandfather who also died and has been in the grave for over a hundred years, roughly speaking. But what about people who died two thousand years ago?
Khabib Nurmagomedov
They’ve been in the grave for two thousand years. What’s next? It’s a good question, isn’t it? They’ve just been in the grave all this time, and that’s it. So what was the purpose of their life? A person has been in the grave for two thousand years, but maybe lived for seventy years. Roughly speaking, let’s say one hundred. They lived for one hundred years and have been in the grave for two thousand. So what matters more, those one hundred years or these two thousand years? And what happens after those two thousand years end? People believe different things, whether there is a day of judgment or not. That’s where the difference lies between a believer and a non-believer. After everyone is resurrected, there will be the day of judgment.
They’ve been in the grave for two thousand years. What’s next? It’s a good question, isn’t it? They’ve just been in the grave all this time, and that’s it. So what was the purpose of their life? A person has been in the grave for two thousand years, but maybe lived for seventy years. Roughly speaking, let’s say one hundred. They lived for one hundred years and have been in the grave for two thousand. So what matters more, those one hundred years or these two thousand years? And what happens after those two thousand years end? People believe different things, whether there is a day of judgment or not. That’s where the difference lies between a believer and a non-believer. After everyone is resurrected, there will be the day of judgment.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
There will be judgment, and after that, people will enter eternity. Eternity compared to eternity, what are two thousand years? They’re nothing. And we live for, let’s say, seventy years. And many people choose those seventy years over eternal life. And if a person understands that these seventy years they have here, roughly speaking, seventy or eighty years are meant to be used to prepare for what comes after, so that when the day of judgment arrives, and after that judgment they can live forever, not in hell, but in heaven. If that becomes their ultimate goal, then they will strive to do good deeds because they will fear the day of judgment. And that’s really what life is about, preparing yourself for the day of judgment.
There will be judgment, and after that, people will enter eternity. Eternity compared to eternity, what are two thousand years? They’re nothing. And we live for, let’s say, seventy years. And many people choose those seventy years over eternal life. And if a person understands that these seventy years they have here, roughly speaking, seventy or eighty years are meant to be used to prepare for what comes after, so that when the day of judgment arrives, and after that judgment they can live forever, not in hell, but in heaven. If that becomes their ultimate goal, then they will strive to do good deeds because they will fear the day of judgment. And that’s really what life is about, preparing yourself for the day of judgment.
Lex Fridman
That’s true. To truly understand life and its deeper meaning, you have to think about eternity. Only then can you really understand your role.
That’s true. To truly understand life and its deeper meaning, you have to think about eternity. Only then can you really understand your role.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Actually, it can keep a person away from evil. From evil and it can stop them from treating other people badly. It can hold a person back. But if you don’t have that understanding, if a person lives completely convinced that there’s nothing after death, what’s there to stop him from doing evil? Just like that. What do you think? And on top of that, an even more dangerous combination. You become powerful, wealthy, and you become famous. What now? Suddenly every door is open to you. Just imagine a person like that. And on top of all that, he doesn’t believe in the day of judgment. He doesn’t believe he’ll be held accountable for his actions. That’s, you know, it’s like a nuclear bomb. He can end up causing harm to people everywhere.
Actually, it can keep a person away from evil. From evil and it can stop them from treating other people badly. It can hold a person back. But if you don’t have that understanding, if a person lives completely convinced that there’s nothing after death, what’s there to stop him from doing evil? Just like that. What do you think? And on top of that, an even more dangerous combination. You become powerful, wealthy, and you become famous. What now? Suddenly every door is open to you. Just imagine a person like that. And on top of all that, he doesn’t believe in the day of judgment. He doesn’t believe he’ll be held accountable for his actions. That’s, you know, it’s like a nuclear bomb. He can end up causing harm to people everywhere.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
But if you know that for everything you have here, you’ll eventually have to answer, that there will be a day of judgment and that you’ll be called to account, and if you fail that test, you’ll burn in hell forever. That’ll make you rein yourself in a little. You’ll have to take that into consideration. You’ll have to tighten things up a little. You’ll begin to understand that you’re not nearly as important as the image you’ve created of yourself in your own mind. You start becoming more, as Americans say, down to earth. You become more grounded. You’re not flying, you’re walking on the ground.
But if you know that for everything you have here, you’ll eventually have to answer, that there will be a day of judgment and that you’ll be called to account, and if you fail that test, you’ll burn in hell forever. That’ll make you rein yourself in a little. You’ll have to take that into consideration. You’ll have to tighten things up a little. You’ll begin to understand that you’re not nearly as important as the image you’ve created of yourself in your own mind. You start becoming more, as Americans say, down to earth. You become more grounded. You’re not flying, you’re walking on the ground.
Lex Fridman
You once put it beautifully. You can allow money and fame to stay in your hand, but not in your heart. You’ve still got many years ahead of you, but you’re already an example of someone who’s become famous, made money, and remained the same person.
You once put it beautifully. You can allow money and fame to stay in your hand, but not in your heart. You’ve still got many years ahead of you, but you’re already an example of someone who’s become famous, made money, and remained the same person.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
If money stays in your hands and not in your heart, that’s a good thing. But the moment it gets into a person’s heart, it corrupts them. Once it’s there, it’s very difficult to pull it out of your heart. If you have wealth in your hands and use it properly for good causes, for the right purposes, for people in need, for your family, relatives, friends, people from your hometown, that’s a good thing. But as soon as that wealth gets into your heart, it becomes very difficult to share it with others. And this is a very dangerous, very dangerous place for a person to end up. And I’m sorry, but as a believer, I believe that most people in hell will be wealthy.
If money stays in your hands and not in your heart, that’s a good thing. But the moment it gets into a person’s heart, it corrupts them. Once it’s there, it’s very difficult to pull it out of your heart. If you have wealth in your hands and use it properly for good causes, for the right purposes, for people in need, for your family, relatives, friends, people from your hometown, that’s a good thing. But as soon as that wealth gets into your heart, it becomes very difficult to share it with others. And this is a very dangerous, very dangerous place for a person to end up. And I’m sorry, but as a believer, I believe that most people in hell will be wealthy.
Lex Fridman
One of the reasons millions of people find you so interesting to watch is that you’re constantly growing. First, you were a great fighter. Now you’re becoming a leader. Your wisdom just, it keeps increasing. You’re evolving as a person, but still the core values remain. It’s good to see, inspiring for people. Money and fame haven’t changed you. You’re just growing as a human being, as you always have.
One of the reasons millions of people find you so interesting to watch is that you’re constantly growing. First, you were a great fighter. Now you’re becoming a leader. Your wisdom just, it keeps increasing. You’re evolving as a person, but still the core values remain. It’s good to see, inspiring for people. Money and fame haven’t changed you. You’re just growing as a human being, as you always have.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
I hope it’s in the right direction. It’s just, the thing is people only see the good. They don’t see the bad. And we all have the good side and the bad side. Everyone, sadly. And especially when it comes to celebrities, we only see, we only show the best side of ourselves. Even when you post photos, you only post the good ones, the pictures where you look your best. So I hope that the way people see me, as you pointed out, is the way I really am, because it’s difficult to judge yourself objectively. You’re always biased when it comes to yourself. That’s how it is. We tend to think highly of ourselves, right? You can’t really see yourself objectively. We hide our flaws and put our best qualities on display. Sometimes people even start believing in a fake version of themselves.
I hope it’s in the right direction. It’s just, the thing is people only see the good. They don’t see the bad. And we all have the good side and the bad side. Everyone, sadly. And especially when it comes to celebrities, we only see, we only show the best side of ourselves. Even when you post photos, you only post the good ones, the pictures where you look your best. So I hope that the way people see me, as you pointed out, is the way I really am, because it’s difficult to judge yourself objectively. You’re always biased when it comes to yourself. That’s how it is. We tend to think highly of ourselves, right? You can’t really see yourself objectively. We hide our flaws and put our best qualities on display. Sometimes people even start believing in a fake version of themselves.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
For me, I try to stay on the honest path throughout my life to remain true to who I really am and to show my true self to people. Maybe not everyone agrees with my behavior, my opinions, my worldview, or my attitudes towards sports, religion, and other things. Not everyone shares my views. Not everyone is a fan of mine. There are people who, let’s say, see me very differently. So I’m just… I’ve tried, I continue to try to be who I am. That’s all. And I hope that my ending will be a good one, too. Well, you know, at least that’s my hope.
For me, I try to stay on the honest path throughout my life to remain true to who I really am and to show my true self to people. Maybe not everyone agrees with my behavior, my opinions, my worldview, or my attitudes towards sports, religion, and other things. Not everyone shares my views. Not everyone is a fan of mine. There are people who, let’s say, see me very differently. So I’m just… I’ve tried, I continue to try to be who I am. That’s all. And I hope that my ending will be a good one, too. Well, you know, at least that’s my hope.
Lex Fridman
You’ve stayed the same, but you’ve also grown. I mean, today you even managed to say something nice about Barça. So see, that’s progress. Yeah. Well done.
You’ve stayed the same, but you’ve also grown. I mean, today you even managed to say something nice about Barça. So see, that’s progress. Yeah. Well done.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Come on, without Barcelona, there wouldn’t be Real Madrid. If the Spanish league didn’t have either Real Madrid or Barcelona, it just wouldn’t be the same. They’ve been competing against each other for how many years? One hundred twenty. It’s hard to imagine Barcelona and Real Madrid without each other, and so is the Spanish league without that rivalry. It’s impossible to imagine. So yeah, we have to give you some credit, but Real Madrid is the royal club. Come on. It’s the best. You know?
Come on, without Barcelona, there wouldn’t be Real Madrid. If the Spanish league didn’t have either Real Madrid or Barcelona, it just wouldn’t be the same. They’ve been competing against each other for how many years? One hundred twenty. It’s hard to imagine Barcelona and Real Madrid without each other, and so is the Spanish league without that rivalry. It’s impossible to imagine. So yeah, we have to give you some credit, but Real Madrid is the royal club. Come on. It’s the best. You know?
Lex Fridman
And thanks to both of them, we’ve been able to enjoy truly incredible football for so many years.
And thanks to both of them, we’ve been able to enjoy truly incredible football for so many years.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
For so many years, yeah.
For so many years, yeah.
Lex Fridman
Khabib, brother, I don’t even have the words to explain how honored I am that you’re here talking with me today and showing me so much warmth. There’s no way to fully express what you mean to millions of your fans around the world, including me. Thank you so much for everything. Thank you for this conversation.
Khabib, brother, I don’t even have the words to explain how honored I am that you’re here talking with me today and showing me so much warmth. There’s no way to fully express what you mean to millions of your fans around the world, including me. Thank you so much for everything. Thank you for this conversation.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Thank you. Thank you very much, Lex.
Thank you. Thank you very much, Lex.
Lex Fridman
Thank you for listening to this conversation with Khabib Nurmagomedov. And again, thank you for everything. I love you all. Goodbye, my friends. See you next time.
Thank you for listening to this conversation with Khabib Nurmagomedov. And again, thank you for everything. I love you all. Goodbye, my friends. See you next time.
Files for Khabib Nurmagomedov Episode | Lex Fridman Podcast #500
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Transcript for Gary Gallagher: American Civil War, Slavery, Lincoln, Grant & Lee | Lex Fridman Podcast #499
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #499 with Gary Gallagher.
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Table of Contents
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- 0:00 – Episode highlight
- 1:29 – Introduction
- 1:52 – What caused the Civil War?
- 11:49 – Slavery
- 39:23 – Lincoln
- 54:19 – Grant vs Lee
- 1:03:13 – Could the Civil War have been avoided?
- 1:12:39 – The bloodiest war in US history
- 1:29:47 – How the Confederate Army could’ve won
- 1:50:22 – Key battles of the Civil War
- 2:13:23 – Best and Worst Presidents
- 2:27:23 – Robert E. Lee
- 2:46:56 – The most important battle of the Civil War
- 2:57:07 – The final showdown of the Civil War – Grant vs Lee
- 3:19:26 – Lost Cause and Confederate Monuments
- 3:36:54 – Extreme political division in US
Episode highlight
Gary Gallagher
You cannot control what a great military event can set loose. More battle casualties than US forces had suffered in every war combined down to that point happened in two days. Two and a half months after that, George B. McClellan’s army engaged with Lee’s army in what came to be called the Seven Days Battles at Richmond, 36,000 casualties. So those two together just showed that this was gonna be on a totally different scale. He added a psychological twist. What Grant envisioned his doing, and Sheridan actually did it in the Shenandoah Valley before Sherman did it in Georgia, is go into an agriculturally productive area, burn the mills, kill the livestock, destroy the crops, lay waste to it so that it can’t be a logistical support of the Confederacy anymore.
You cannot control what a great military event can set loose. More battle casualties than US forces had suffered in every war combined down to that point happened in two days. Two and a half months after that, George B. McClellan’s army engaged with Lee’s army in what came to be called the Seven Days Battles at Richmond, 36,000 casualties. So those two together just showed that this was gonna be on a totally different scale. He added a psychological twist. What Grant envisioned his doing, and Sheridan actually did it in the Shenandoah Valley before Sherman did it in Georgia, is go into an agriculturally productive area, burn the mills, kill the livestock, destroy the crops, lay waste to it so that it can’t be a logistical support of the Confederacy anymore.
Gary Gallagher
Sheridan did it in the Shenandoah Valley, and then Sherman did it in Georgia. But Sherman said, “But I’m also going to break them psychologically. I’m gonna show them that my army can go wherever it wants to go whenever it wants to go, and there’s nothing Jefferson Davis can do about it.” The “great forces are all that matters and individuals don’t really matter” notion of history, I think, is ridiculous. Individuals really matter. For the United States, Lincoln and Grant matter beyond calculation- … in this war. And on the Confederate side, if you take Lee out of the picture, the war doesn’t last nearly as long as it does. In terms of causation, if you take slavery out of the picture, there is no Civil War, period.
Sheridan did it in the Shenandoah Valley, and then Sherman did it in Georgia. But Sherman said, “But I’m also going to break them psychologically. I’m gonna show them that my army can go wherever it wants to go whenever it wants to go, and there’s nothing Jefferson Davis can do about it.” The “great forces are all that matters and individuals don’t really matter” notion of history, I think, is ridiculous. Individuals really matter. For the United States, Lincoln and Grant matter beyond calculation- … in this war. And on the Confederate side, if you take Lee out of the picture, the war doesn’t last nearly as long as it does. In terms of causation, if you take slavery out of the picture, there is no Civil War, period.
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Gary Gallagher, a historian of the American Civil War. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, dear friends, here’s Gary Gallagher.
The following is a conversation with Gary Gallagher, a historian of the American Civil War. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, dear friends, here’s Gary Gallagher.
What caused the Civil War?
Lex Fridman
The American Civil War broke out in 1861. What were the causes of the Civil War? Could it have been avoided, or was it inevitable?
The American Civil War broke out in 1861. What were the causes of the Civil War? Could it have been avoided, or was it inevitable?
Gary Gallagher
I don’t know if anything is inevitable in history, but it’s certainly safe to say that the conditions were in place to make it possible-
I don’t know if anything is inevitable in history, but it’s certainly safe to say that the conditions were in place to make it possible-
Gary Gallagher
… by the winter of 1860, ’61, and the conditions that made it possible were all related to the institution of slavery and its effects both in the states where slavery was allowed and the states where it was not allowed. And there had been a series of tensions that grew in the decade preceding the 1850s. It’s not that one side wants to get rid of slavery and the other side wants to protect slavery. I’m talking about the white people in the United States now who would be making the political decisions. It’s a question of whether slavery was going to be able to expand into federal territories. That is what really created the starkest difference between the two sections in the 1850s, even in the late 1840s.
… by the winter of 1860, ’61, and the conditions that made it possible were all related to the institution of slavery and its effects both in the states where slavery was allowed and the states where it was not allowed. And there had been a series of tensions that grew in the decade preceding the 1850s. It’s not that one side wants to get rid of slavery and the other side wants to protect slavery. I’m talking about the white people in the United States now who would be making the political decisions. It’s a question of whether slavery was going to be able to expand into federal territories. That is what really created the starkest difference between the two sections in the 1850s, even in the late 1840s.
Gary Gallagher
The issues that came to most perilous a point in the view of many people then had to do with whether slavery would be allowed only where it already existed, or would it be allowed to expand. If it could expand, then it seemed that it might be conceivable at some point even that the slaveholding states could end up with a majority. They were in a minority by 1860, ’61 and feeling beleaguered, feeling threatened. They’d long since lost the population race to the free states. Early in the nation, the most powerful states were slaveholding states. Virginia was by far the most important state. Four of the first five presidents were from Virginia, all slaveholders, all prominent members of the slaveholding class. Those days were long gone by the late 1850s.
The issues that came to most perilous a point in the view of many people then had to do with whether slavery would be allowed only where it already existed, or would it be allowed to expand. If it could expand, then it seemed that it might be conceivable at some point even that the slaveholding states could end up with a majority. They were in a minority by 1860, ’61 and feeling beleaguered, feeling threatened. They’d long since lost the population race to the free states. Early in the nation, the most powerful states were slaveholding states. Virginia was by far the most important state. Four of the first five presidents were from Virginia, all slaveholders, all prominent members of the slaveholding class. Those days were long gone by the late 1850s.
Lex Fridman
So that’s an important thing to say. It wasn’t before the Civil War a discussion about abolishing slavery. It’s about whether slavery, the institution of slavery, should be expanded.
So that’s an important thing to say. It wasn’t before the Civil War a discussion about abolishing slavery. It’s about whether slavery, the institution of slavery, should be expanded.
Gary Gallagher
Allowed to expand into federal territories. There is a portion of the white population that is adamantly in favor of getting rid of slavery immediately. The abolitionists, they… There was even a political party called the Liberty Party that ran a candidate in 1840 and they got a handful of thousand votes. They reached their high point in 1844. They got about two and a half percent of the vote. The abolitionists are a tiny minority even in the North, tiny minority among the white people of the United States. The African American population, nearly four million of them by 1860, of course, would have embraced it instantly and yearned for it. But in the white population, the abolitionists are a tiny minority.
Allowed to expand into federal territories. There is a portion of the white population that is adamantly in favor of getting rid of slavery immediately. The abolitionists, they… There was even a political party called the Liberty Party that ran a candidate in 1840 and they got a handful of thousand votes. They reached their high point in 1844. They got about two and a half percent of the vote. The abolitionists are a tiny minority even in the North, tiny minority among the white people of the United States. The African American population, nearly four million of them by 1860, of course, would have embraced it instantly and yearned for it. But in the white population, the abolitionists are a tiny minority.
Gary Gallagher
They are much despised even across much of the North because they were seen as agitators who roiled the Union and deepened rifts that might bring a significant political break.
They are much despised even across much of the North because they were seen as agitators who roiled the Union and deepened rifts that might bring a significant political break.
Lex Fridman
So how did this escalate to a civil war, this almost policy discussion about the institution of slavery? How did it actually escalate?
So how did this escalate to a civil war, this almost policy discussion about the institution of slavery? How did it actually escalate?
Gary Gallagher
It escalated into a civil war because in the presidential election of 1860… There’d been, there’d been two party s- systems in the United States. The first party system, the Republicans, the Jeffersonian Republicans versus the Federalists. After that, there was, the two parties were the Whig Party against the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party grew out of the Jeffersonian Republican Party. It’s the same party. The Whig Party foundered to a significant degree on the issue of slavery. How do you maintain a national party that has a wing in the Southern states and has a wing in the Northern free states that can handle the issue of slavery? The Democrats managed to do that.
It escalated into a civil war because in the presidential election of 1860… There’d been, there’d been two party s- systems in the United States. The first party system, the Republicans, the Jeffersonian Republicans versus the Federalists. After that, there was, the two parties were the Whig Party against the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party grew out of the Jeffersonian Republican Party. It’s the same party. The Whig Party foundered to a significant degree on the issue of slavery. How do you maintain a national party that has a wing in the Southern states and has a wing in the Northern free states that can handle the issue of slavery? The Democrats managed to do that.
Gary Gallagher
The Whigs could not do it, and so the Whig Party ran their last candidate in 1852, presidential candidate, significant candidate. And the Republican Party emerged in the mid-1850s, took most of the old Whigs into the Republican ranks and one of the Republican, the key Republican platform plank was no expansion of slavery into the territories. Not abolish slavery, no expansion. That was the key in 1856 when they ran their first candidate. In 1860, that is again the key plank in the Republican platform. The Republican platform in 1860 says where slavery exists it will continue, but it cannot expand into the territories.
The Whigs could not do it, and so the Whig Party ran their last candidate in 1852, presidential candidate, significant candidate. And the Republican Party emerged in the mid-1850s, took most of the old Whigs into the Republican ranks and one of the Republican, the key Republican platform plank was no expansion of slavery into the territories. Not abolish slavery, no expansion. That was the key in 1856 when they ran their first candidate. In 1860, that is again the key plank in the Republican platform. The Republican platform in 1860 says where slavery exists it will continue, but it cannot expand into the territories.
Gary Gallagher
When white Southerners saw that, that meant that they were doomed to become an increasingly minority section in the nation, and you would have a federal government increasingly dominated by the free states that could then do the one thing that the white South could not countenance, and that is tamper with the institution of slavery in the South. The presidential election of 1860 brought the destruction of the last national party, which were the Democrats. They couldn’t even settle on a candidate, so you end up with a Northern Democratic candidate running, Stephen A. Douglas, and a Southern candidate running. The convention fractured and John C. Breckinridge ran on the Southern Democrat platform.
When white Southerners saw that, that meant that they were doomed to become an increasingly minority section in the nation, and you would have a federal government increasingly dominated by the free states that could then do the one thing that the white South could not countenance, and that is tamper with the institution of slavery in the South. The presidential election of 1860 brought the destruction of the last national party, which were the Democrats. They couldn’t even settle on a candidate, so you end up with a Northern Democratic candidate running, Stephen A. Douglas, and a Southern candidate running. The convention fractured and John C. Breckinridge ran on the Southern Democrat platform.
Gary Gallagher
You had a Unionist candidate running who just didn’t wanna talk about slavery, let’s talk about the Union, and you had Lincoln running as a Republican. When Lincoln won, the white South looked at Lincoln winning. Here’s a guy who has said that he doesn’t think slavery would expand, but he’d said more than that. He scared the white South more because in 1858, both Lincoln and William Henry Seward, these are two prominent Republicans, had said basically in separate speeches, the House Divided Speech on Lincoln’s part, the Irrepressible Conflict Speech on Seward’s part, that the nation could not continue in the long term half slave and half free. And everybody in the South knew which way they wanted it to be. They would want it to be no slavery.
You had a Unionist candidate running who just didn’t wanna talk about slavery, let’s talk about the Union, and you had Lincoln running as a Republican. When Lincoln won, the white South looked at Lincoln winning. Here’s a guy who has said that he doesn’t think slavery would expand, but he’d said more than that. He scared the white South more because in 1858, both Lincoln and William Henry Seward, these are two prominent Republicans, had said basically in separate speeches, the House Divided Speech on Lincoln’s part, the Irrepressible Conflict Speech on Seward’s part, that the nation could not continue in the long term half slave and half free. And everybody in the South knew which way they wanted it to be. They would want it to be no slavery.
Gary Gallagher
And so Lincoln’s election scared the white South enough so that seven of the 15 slave-holding states seceded in response to Lincoln’s election. They seceded between December 20th, when South Carolina went out, and the end of February. You had the deep South went out.
And so Lincoln’s election scared the white South enough so that seven of the 15 slave-holding states seceded in response to Lincoln’s election. They seceded between December 20th, when South Carolina went out, and the end of February. You had the deep South went out.
Lex Fridman
What was the general view amongst the populace towards slavery? Let’s kind of lay it out. Let’s, you know, for the audience looking back, let’s put ourselves in the mind space of how people saw the world, how people saw slavery, how people saw African Americans.
What was the general view amongst the populace towards slavery? Let’s kind of lay it out. Let’s, you know, for the audience looking back, let’s put ourselves in the mind space of how people saw the world, how people saw slavery, how people saw African Americans.
Gary Gallagher
Well, the baseline among the white Americans, there were about 31, shade more than 31 million Americans in 1860 for the census of 1860. About four million of them were African Americans, three and a half million of those enslaved in the South. Anyway, among the white population, the average attitude toward Black people is what we would call profoundly prejudiced. Doesn’t matter whether you… A lot of people think this is a Southern white thing. They’re the only ones who were prejudiced. By our standards, the overwhelming majority of people in the free states were also deeply prejudiced. It’s important to keep in mind that attitudes towards slavery and attitudes toward race are not necessarily the same.
Well, the baseline among the white Americans, there were about 31, shade more than 31 million Americans in 1860 for the census of 1860. About four million of them were African Americans, three and a half million of those enslaved in the South. Anyway, among the white population, the average attitude toward Black people is what we would call profoundly prejudiced. Doesn’t matter whether you… A lot of people think this is a Southern white thing. They’re the only ones who were prejudiced. By our standards, the overwhelming majority of people in the free states were also deeply prejudiced. It’s important to keep in mind that attitudes towards slavery and attitudes toward race are not necessarily the same.
Gary Gallagher
I mean, you could be against slavery and still be prejudiced against Black people. By our standards, many abolitionists were prejudiced against Black people. They… But the overwhelming majority of the white North… In the North, often had a hard time getting my students to understand the demographics in 1860. The free states in 1860 were more than 98% white. 98% white. African Americans are a tiny minority in the free states. Black people lived in the 15 slaveholding states in 1860. Most of the white North, by our standards, was very prejudiced. They were against the expansion of slavery into the territories because they thought that would circumscribe white opportunities to make an economic life in these federal territories, and they didn’t want that to happen.
I mean, you could be against slavery and still be prejudiced against Black people. By our standards, many abolitionists were prejudiced against Black people. They… But the overwhelming majority of the white North… In the North, often had a hard time getting my students to understand the demographics in 1860. The free states in 1860 were more than 98% white. 98% white. African Americans are a tiny minority in the free states. Black people lived in the 15 slaveholding states in 1860. Most of the white North, by our standards, was very prejudiced. They were against the expansion of slavery into the territories because they thought that would circumscribe white opportunities to make an economic life in these federal territories, and they didn’t want that to happen.
Gary Gallagher
About 45% of the people who lived in the free states were Democrats. Most Democrats had no problem with slavery. I mean, absolutely no problem with the institution of slavery. There would be more problems among Republicans, especially with extension of slavery, although many Democrats, white Democrats in the North were against that as well. The white South was overwhelmingly in favor of slavery. You often read the argument, the kind of neo-Confederate argument that they’ll talk about how most Confederate soldiers didn’t own slaves. That’s true. A large majority of families in the South did not own a single slave. But all white Southerners had a stake in slavery.
About 45% of the people who lived in the free states were Democrats. Most Democrats had no problem with slavery. I mean, absolutely no problem with the institution of slavery. There would be more problems among Republicans, especially with extension of slavery, although many Democrats, white Democrats in the North were against that as well. The white South was overwhelmingly in favor of slavery. You often read the argument, the kind of neo-Confederate argument that they’ll talk about how most Confederate soldiers didn’t own slaves. That’s true. A large majority of families in the South did not own a single slave. But all white Southerners had a stake in slavery.
Gary Gallagher
They had a stake in it as a form of labor control, but more important than that, they had a stake in it as a means of social control. They knew, no matter what they said later in the Jim Crow era of how happy Black people were in the institution of slavery, they knew that Black people, of course, did not want to be enslaved, and they were afraid of what would happen if they weren’t enslaved anymore. They had in the backs of their minds Haiti. Is that what’s gonna… If you live in one of the coastal districts of South Carolina where 90% of the residents are enslaved and you’re a white person, you probably don’t sleep all that soundly at night if you think there’s any chance that the Black people are not gonna remain under the control of the white people.
They had a stake in it as a form of labor control, but more important than that, they had a stake in it as a means of social control. They knew, no matter what they said later in the Jim Crow era of how happy Black people were in the institution of slavery, they knew that Black people, of course, did not want to be enslaved, and they were afraid of what would happen if they weren’t enslaved anymore. They had in the backs of their minds Haiti. Is that what’s gonna… If you live in one of the coastal districts of South Carolina where 90% of the residents are enslaved and you’re a white person, you probably don’t sleep all that soundly at night if you think there’s any chance that the Black people are not gonna remain under the control of the white people.
Gary Gallagher
So all white people in the South had a stake in slavery, not just some. All of them did, and there were all kinds of ways that it would go back and forth. If you were a modest farmer and grew a little bit of cotton, you didn’t have your own cotton gin, but your more wealthy neighbor had a gin, could gin your cotton there, and then you would take your turn on the slave patrols. So there’s a reciprocity in that regard.
So all white people in the South had a stake in slavery, not just some. All of them did, and there were all kinds of ways that it would go back and forth. If you were a modest farmer and grew a little bit of cotton, you didn’t have your own cotton gin, but your more wealthy neighbor had a gin, could gin your cotton there, and then you would take your turn on the slave patrols. So there’s a reciprocity in that regard.
Slavery
Lex Fridman
This is perhaps a bit outside the scope of what we’ll talk about today, but just to lay out the context on slavery in general in human history, we should say that slavery was ubiquitous. It existed in virtually every major civilization in the history of humans. Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece, Rome, China, the Islamic world, Africa, the Americas, North and South America. We should also say something that, as I was looking into this, another big topic, which is the Atlantic slave trade. And it was surprising to me, the stat I wasn’t aware of, I would venture to say most Americans probably don’t know, that only 4% of African slaves were brought to North America, to the United States.
This is perhaps a bit outside the scope of what we’ll talk about today, but just to lay out the context on slavery in general in human history, we should say that slavery was ubiquitous. It existed in virtually every major civilization in the history of humans. Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece, Rome, China, the Islamic world, Africa, the Americas, North and South America. We should also say something that, as I was looking into this, another big topic, which is the Atlantic slave trade. And it was surprising to me, the stat I wasn’t aware of, I would venture to say most Americans probably don’t know, that only 4% of African slaves were brought to North America, to the United States.
Gary Gallagher
Brazil is the main destination.
Brazil is the main destination.
Lex Fridman
Brazil, the Caribbean was over 90%, 4.9 million in Brazil, 4 million in the Caribbean, and it was also the last of the Americas to abolish the slave trade. So only 4% of the Atlantic slave trade went to the United States. So there’s– the story of human slavery is one that reaches deep into our history and geographically is much larger than we often study in the context of the United States.
Brazil, the Caribbean was over 90%, 4.9 million in Brazil, 4 million in the Caribbean, and it was also the last of the Americas to abolish the slave trade. So only 4% of the Atlantic slave trade went to the United States. So there’s– the story of human slavery is one that reaches deep into our history and geographically is much larger than we often study in the context of the United States.
Gary Gallagher
One thing the Civil War, which I’ll just call the war for the rest of our discussion, I mean, one thing it did was end slavery in four years in the United States. Whereas in the absence of that war, it might have gone on for decades. I think the United States would have had the ignominious distinction of being the last place to get rid of slavery, would have been after Brazil, would have been after Spanish Cuba, because it was thriving in the United States in 1860. It was making the transition from cash crop agriculture-
One thing the Civil War, which I’ll just call the war for the rest of our discussion, I mean, one thing it did was end slavery in four years in the United States. Whereas in the absence of that war, it might have gone on for decades. I think the United States would have had the ignominious distinction of being the last place to get rid of slavery, would have been after Brazil, would have been after Spanish Cuba, because it was thriving in the United States in 1860. It was making the transition from cash crop agriculture-
Gary Gallagher
… to other, to industrial applications and other applications growing of non not growing, growing just cotton and rice and sugar. It was– There was a time in the literature when people argued that the war was needless, Civil War was needless because slavery was on its way out. That’s absolutely wrong. It was not on its way out. It was thriving. Lincoln said at one point he thought it might have lasted another fifty years, and I don’t know how many years it would have lasted, but I think it would have lasted longer than it did in either Cuba or Brazil if it hadn’t, if the war hadn’t taken place.
… to other, to industrial applications and other applications growing of non not growing, growing just cotton and rice and sugar. It was– There was a time in the literature when people argued that the war was needless, Civil War was needless because slavery was on its way out. That’s absolutely wrong. It was not on its way out. It was thriving. Lincoln said at one point he thought it might have lasted another fifty years, and I don’t know how many years it would have lasted, but I think it would have lasted longer than it did in either Cuba or Brazil if it hadn’t, if the war hadn’t taken place.
Lex Fridman
So slavery was flourishing in the United States from-
So slavery was flourishing in the United States from-
Gary Gallagher
Flourishing.
Flourishing.
Lex Fridman
… from an economics perspective- … especially.
… from an economics perspective- … especially.
Gary Gallagher
The wealthiest part… The 1860 census is our friend, and it tells us that the people who controlled the most wealth in the United States were slaveholders, and their property in slaves alone, not their other holdings, not their land holdings, just property in slaves were valued at about three billion dollars. The value of all industries, all railroads, all of that put together, fewer than two point five billion dollars. So the people who controlled the most wealth, by far, were the slaveholding class.
The wealthiest part… The 1860 census is our friend, and it tells us that the people who controlled the most wealth in the United States were slaveholders, and their property in slaves alone, not their other holdings, not their land holdings, just property in slaves were valued at about three billion dollars. The value of all industries, all railroads, all of that put together, fewer than two point five billion dollars. So the people who controlled the most wealth, by far, were the slaveholding class.
Lex Fridman
So it was the most valuable industry in the United States, and perhaps it is the reason again, a bit out of scope, but maybe it helps lay out the land. Let’s look at the nineteenth century. So most slave-owning societies of the era were able to abolish slavery without people dying at the mass scale that we’ll discuss. So Britain freed eight hundred thousand slaves in 1833- … By buying their freedom. Russia freed twenty-three million serfs in 1861 with a decree, so legally. Brazil, which imported more than ten times as many enslaved Africans as the United States, abolished slavery in 1888 through basic ordinary legislation. No violence. Why did US have a civil war with an estimated seven hundred and fifty thousand people dead in order to abolish slavery?
So it was the most valuable industry in the United States, and perhaps it is the reason again, a bit out of scope, but maybe it helps lay out the land. Let’s look at the nineteenth century. So most slave-owning societies of the era were able to abolish slavery without people dying at the mass scale that we’ll discuss. So Britain freed eight hundred thousand slaves in 1833- … By buying their freedom. Russia freed twenty-three million serfs in 1861 with a decree, so legally. Brazil, which imported more than ten times as many enslaved Africans as the United States, abolished slavery in 1888 through basic ordinary legislation. No violence. Why did US have a civil war with an estimated seven hundred and fifty thousand people dead in order to abolish slavery?
Gary Gallagher
Yes. That’s– The, let’s talk just for a second about the seven hundred and fifty thousand dead soldiers we’re talking about. The, the number for years was six hundred and eighteen thousand, and that’s been revised lately. I think we’re probably certainly more than seven hundred thousand. By far the bloodiest war in, in our history as a percentage of the population off the, off the charts, by far the bloodiest. I think one… I think there’s a big difference between Great Britain doing it and the United States doing it, is Great Britain did it in pla- in other places. There weren’t millions of enslaved people in Great Britain at the time. It’s– I think it’s, for them, it might have been a little bit easier to free enslaved people who don’t live among you than it…
Yes. That’s– The, let’s talk just for a second about the seven hundred and fifty thousand dead soldiers we’re talking about. The, the number for years was six hundred and eighteen thousand, and that’s been revised lately. I think we’re probably certainly more than seven hundred thousand. By far the bloodiest war in, in our history as a percentage of the population off the, off the charts, by far the bloodiest. I think one… I think there’s a big difference between Great Britain doing it and the United States doing it, is Great Britain did it in pla- in other places. There weren’t millions of enslaved people in Great Britain at the time. It’s– I think it’s, for them, it might have been a little bit easier to free enslaved people who don’t live among you than it…
Gary Gallagher
In the United States, the ante is up for the Confederacy because they, the enslaved people lived here, and I think they were, a lot of them were afraid of them and what would happen if they weren’t enslaved anymore. It– The war goes from… It doesn’t begin as a war to end slavery. There’s a major shift in the war, begins in the summer of 1862, where you add to the war. The war aim for the United States initially is to suppress the rebellion, which is what they called this. They didn’t call it the Civil War for the most part during the war. It’s the War of the Rebellion. That’s the goal initially.
In the United States, the ante is up for the Confederacy because they, the enslaved people lived here, and I think they were, a lot of them were afraid of them and what would happen if they weren’t enslaved anymore. It– The war goes from… It doesn’t begin as a war to end slavery. There’s a major shift in the war, begins in the summer of 1862, where you add to the war. The war aim for the United States initially is to suppress the rebellion, which is what they called this. They didn’t call it the Civil War for the most part during the war. It’s the War of the Rebellion. That’s the goal initially.
Gary Gallagher
As the war goes on and becomes costlier and more all-encompassing, they decide that they’re not gonna be able to suppress the rebellion unless they also strike at slavery, because slavery underpins the Confederate war-making capacity. You have enslaved labor that keeps the economy going and allows the Confederacy to mobilize between eighty-five and ninety percent of all their white military-aged males. It’s an astonishing mobilization. It’s only possible because enslaved labor keeps the economy going. If you take that enslaved labor away, it deals a significant blow to the Confederate economy and by extension, to its ability to wage a nineteenth century war.
As the war goes on and becomes costlier and more all-encompassing, they decide that they’re not gonna be able to suppress the rebellion unless they also strike at slavery, because slavery underpins the Confederate war-making capacity. You have enslaved labor that keeps the economy going and allows the Confederacy to mobilize between eighty-five and ninety percent of all their white military-aged males. It’s an astonishing mobilization. It’s only possible because enslaved labor keeps the economy going. If you take that enslaved labor away, it deals a significant blow to the Confederate economy and by extension, to its ability to wage a nineteenth century war.
Lex Fridman
So the Emancipation Proclamation was in part a military strategy.
So the Emancipation Proclamation was in part a military strategy.
Gary Gallagher
Abraham Lincoln based it entirely on his war-making power as commander-in-chief in a time of open rebellion. His inclination, there’s no– He’s often been criticized for not including the soaring language he was capable of in the Emancipation Proclamation. One historian likened it to a bill of lading. It had all the soaring language of a bill of lading. He did that on purpose. He did it because he doesn’t have the power to strike at slavery in the absence of a war. The president doesn’t. And he did it because he knows that he can’t win the war with only Republicans in the army. He needs to keep Democrats on board with the war as well. They’re not in favor of emancipation.
Abraham Lincoln based it entirely on his war-making power as commander-in-chief in a time of open rebellion. His inclination, there’s no– He’s often been criticized for not including the soaring language he was capable of in the Emancipation Proclamation. One historian likened it to a bill of lading. It had all the soaring language of a bill of lading. He did that on purpose. He did it because he doesn’t have the power to strike at slavery in the absence of a war. The president doesn’t. And he did it because he knows that he can’t win the war with only Republicans in the army. He needs to keep Democrats on board with the war as well. They’re not in favor of emancipation.
Gary Gallagher
The one way that they might accept it is as a tool to help achieve union, and to do that we’ve got to strike at the rebels this way, strike at slavery. That will hurt their war effort, and it will also punish the people who brought on the war, and that would make… So Lincoln hoped that by basing it strictly on his war power, it might be more widely accepted across all parts of the loyal states and not as controversial as it was. It was still intensely controversial. It alienated many Democrats when he issued it, who said, “You’re changing what this war is about. We’re willing to shed our blood and maybe risk our lives to restore the union of the founders. I’m not gonna risk my life to free a Black person.” That’s a very, very common attitude among Democrats.
The one way that they might accept it is as a tool to help achieve union, and to do that we’ve got to strike at the rebels this way, strike at slavery. That will hurt their war effort, and it will also punish the people who brought on the war, and that would make… So Lincoln hoped that by basing it strictly on his war power, it might be more widely accepted across all parts of the loyal states and not as controversial as it was. It was still intensely controversial. It alienated many Democrats when he issued it, who said, “You’re changing what this war is about. We’re willing to shed our blood and maybe risk our lives to restore the union of the founders. I’m not gonna risk my life to free a Black person.” That’s a very, very common attitude among Democrats.
Lex Fridman
So what did the Emancipation Proclamation actually do? It emphasized the freeing of slaves in the South.
So what did the Emancipation Proclamation actually do? It emphasized the freeing of slaves in the South.
Gary Gallagher
It’s even more complicated than that. The only place that Lincoln said he had the power as the war leader to strike at slavery is where the rebels were actually still in rebellion and in control. So any place where the US Army was in control, any place– He said that it is in essence United States territory now. I can’t free them there because I don’t have the power. I can only free them where we don’t have the power. So he exempted parts of states and areas in the South that it didn’t apply to as of the moment he signed it. Going forward, any place that the United States Army went where it hadn’t been on January 1st, 1863, the Emancipation Proclamation applied and enslaved people would be freed by it.
It’s even more complicated than that. The only place that Lincoln said he had the power as the war leader to strike at slavery is where the rebels were actually still in rebellion and in control. So any place where the US Army was in control, any place– He said that it is in essence United States territory now. I can’t free them there because I don’t have the power. I can only free them where we don’t have the power. So he exempted parts of states and areas in the South that it didn’t apply to as of the moment he signed it. Going forward, any place that the United States Army went where it hadn’t been on January 1st, 1863, the Emancipation Proclamation applied and enslaved people would be freed by it.
Gary Gallagher
At the, literally at the time he signed it, he didn’t free anybody because he’s only saying, “I can free them where we’re not in control. We have to be in control for this to have effect and for this to have power.”
At the, literally at the time he signed it, he didn’t free anybody because he’s only saying, “I can free them where we’re not in control. We have to be in control for this to have effect and for this to have power.”
Lex Fridman
So in part, this is why the army was the boundary which the freeing was happening.
So in part, this is why the army was the boundary which the freeing was happening.
Gary Gallagher
It’s absolutely the boundary, and Congress had already passed what was called the Second Confiscation Act. It passed this in July of 1862 that announced that all enslaved people belonging to rebels were free. It didn’t apply to people who could prove they were unionists living in the South and owned slaves. Lincoln didn’t make that distinction in the Emancipation Proclamation. His proclamation is broader than the Second Confiscation Act was.
It’s absolutely the boundary, and Congress had already passed what was called the Second Confiscation Act. It passed this in July of 1862 that announced that all enslaved people belonging to rebels were free. It didn’t apply to people who could prove they were unionists living in the South and owned slaves. Lincoln didn’t make that distinction in the Emancipation Proclamation. His proclamation is broader than the Second Confiscation Act was.
Lex Fridman
Okay. There’s so many tangents we can take, but let’s zoom out once again. There’s a difference between cause, as you’ve talked about, cause and motivation.
Okay. There’s so many tangents we can take, but let’s zoom out once again. There’s a difference between cause, as you’ve talked about, cause and motivation.
Gary Gallagher
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
Quite a large number of people volunteered to fight.
Quite a large number of people volunteered to fight.
Gary Gallagher
In fact, a majority of all the soldiers who fought on both sides were volunteers during the Civil War. About 3 million served, 2.2 million in the United States, 800, 900,000 in the Confederacy. It’s, again, I talk about things that are hard to get students to understand. This is one of them. They have to separate… Causation and motivation are often conflated, and not just by students but also by lots of talking heads on newscasts in the United States who don’t know anything about United States history- … but know what they know. In terms of causation, if you take slavery out of the picture, there is no Civil War, period. That’s not a long conversation you need. You ask the question. That’s the answer. Let’s go to the next question.
In fact, a majority of all the soldiers who fought on both sides were volunteers during the Civil War. About 3 million served, 2.2 million in the United States, 800, 900,000 in the Confederacy. It’s, again, I talk about things that are hard to get students to understand. This is one of them. They have to separate… Causation and motivation are often conflated, and not just by students but also by lots of talking heads on newscasts in the United States who don’t know anything about United States history- … but know what they know. In terms of causation, if you take slavery out of the picture, there is no Civil War, period. That’s not a long conversation you need. You ask the question. That’s the answer. Let’s go to the next question.
Gary Gallagher
The next question is, okay, so were most white people motivated to put on blue uniforms because they wanted to kill slavery? The answer to that is no, they were not. They were motivated to put on blue uniforms to salvage the Union, which they saw as a unique gift that the founding generation, based on the bloodshed in the American Revolution, had bequeathed the successive generations. And the two key parts of what the Union meant for them was, number one, you had a voice in your own government, and someone will always say now to me, “Well, but women couldn’t vote.” That’s right. The people who could vote by our standards were limited in the 19th century, but within the context of the Western world in 1860, the United States had by far the broadest franchise, by far.
The next question is, okay, so were most white people motivated to put on blue uniforms because they wanted to kill slavery? The answer to that is no, they were not. They were motivated to put on blue uniforms to salvage the Union, which they saw as a unique gift that the founding generation, based on the bloodshed in the American Revolution, had bequeathed the successive generations. And the two key parts of what the Union meant for them was, number one, you had a voice in your own government, and someone will always say now to me, “Well, but women couldn’t vote.” That’s right. The people who could vote by our standards were limited in the 19th century, but within the context of the Western world in 1860, the United States had by far the broadest franchise, by far.
Gary Gallagher
And so they argued that’s one thing the Union gives us, and it also gives us the chance to rise economically. Doesn’t guarantee that you can succeed, but it means you’re not doomed to be what your father was. And those are worth fighting for. And so I will put on a uniform so the slave-holding aristocrats and oligarchs, which is what they called them, of the South, they said they’re not… They don’t really believe in democracy. It’s an oligarchy-
And so they argued that’s one thing the Union gives us, and it also gives us the chance to rise economically. Doesn’t guarantee that you can succeed, but it means you’re not doomed to be what your father was. And those are worth fighting for. And so I will put on a uniform so the slave-holding aristocrats and oligarchs, which is what they called them, of the South, they said they’re not… They don’t really believe in democracy. It’s an oligarchy-
Gary Gallagher
… in the South. It’s a slavery-based oligarchy, and we know which way Europe’s going, they said. The revolutions of the 1840s failed in Europe. Europe’s going the wrong way. They’re going toward more aristocracy, more oligarchy, more… And we are the last hope. When Lincoln spoke of the last best hope of Earth, which he did in one of his most memorable phrases, he’s meaning that the United States is a beacon of small D democracy in a Western world that seems to be turning the other way. And those soldiers, it meant, it meant it was that important to them. They are citizens in a republic that people shed blood to establish, and we can’t let it go. Part of the compact is I’m a citizen. I derive these benefits from this republic, from the Union.
… in the South. It’s a slavery-based oligarchy, and we know which way Europe’s going, they said. The revolutions of the 1840s failed in Europe. Europe’s going the wrong way. They’re going toward more aristocracy, more oligarchy, more… And we are the last hope. When Lincoln spoke of the last best hope of Earth, which he did in one of his most memorable phrases, he’s meaning that the United States is a beacon of small D democracy in a Western world that seems to be turning the other way. And those soldiers, it meant, it meant it was that important to them. They are citizens in a republic that people shed blood to establish, and we can’t let it go. Part of the compact is I’m a citizen. I derive these benefits from this republic, from the Union.
Gary Gallagher
I can have a voice in government. I can rise economically or have the chance to. I owe my service to that republic. That’s what most of them would’ve said if you’d pressed them on why they’re doing it. Doesn’t mean everybody was on fire with ideology that way. Some guys would say, “Well, you know what? I’m broke, and I’m gonna get fed and clothed in the army.” But this sense of exceptionalism, exceptionalism’s unpopular now in the United States, but Americans had a sense of themselves as a truly exceptionalist society within the context of the Western world.
I can have a voice in government. I can rise economically or have the chance to. I owe my service to that republic. That’s what most of them would’ve said if you’d pressed them on why they’re doing it. Doesn’t mean everybody was on fire with ideology that way. Some guys would say, “Well, you know what? I’m broke, and I’m gonna get fed and clothed in the army.” But this sense of exceptionalism, exceptionalism’s unpopular now in the United States, but Americans had a sense of themselves as a truly exceptionalist society within the context of the Western world.
Lex Fridman
And as a small aside terminology wise, blue is the Union or what we think of as the United States, and red is the Confederacy.
And as a small aside terminology wise, blue is the Union or what we think of as the United States, and red is the Confederacy.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. On the maps, the Confederate units are red blocks and the United States units are blue blocks. That’s right.
Yes. On the maps, the Confederate units are red blocks and the United States units are blue blocks. That’s right.
Lex Fridman
And, uh…
And, uh…
Gary Gallagher
That, that is correct.
That, that is correct.
Lex Fridman
And the North and the South is another way we’ll refer to it just to clarify.
And the North and the South is another way we’ll refer to it just to clarify.
Gary Gallagher
And let me have a very brief rant on North and South. I prefer to see this as a war between two mid-19th century republics, one of which didn’t last very long and spent its whole life in the midst of a great war. There were 15 slave-holding states in 1860. Only 11 of them seceded from the United States.
And let me have a very brief rant on North and South. I prefer to see this as a war between two mid-19th century republics, one of which didn’t last very long and spent its whole life in the midst of a great war. There were 15 slave-holding states in 1860. Only 11 of them seceded from the United States.
Lex Fridman
Even though there’s 13 stars. We’ll talk about that.
Even though there’s 13 stars. We’ll talk about that.
Gary Gallagher
We’ll talk about that demented notion of things in just a minute, but only 11 leave. So there are four slave-holding states in the United States: Kentucky, and Missouri, and Maryland, and Delaware remain in the United States. So it’s not just North versus South. Those states are all part of the South. It’s the United States versus the Confederacy.
We’ll talk about that demented notion of things in just a minute, but only 11 leave. So there are four slave-holding states in the United States: Kentucky, and Missouri, and Maryland, and Delaware remain in the United States. So it’s not just North versus South. Those states are all part of the South. It’s the United States versus the Confederacy.
Lex Fridman
But see how you referred to it as the United States. So the Union is also referred to as the United States.
But see how you referred to it as the United States. So the Union is also referred to as the United States.
Gary Gallagher
That’s correct. Yes, yes.
That’s correct. Yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
But the Confederacy was, as you write about, a set of people who also had a sense of nationalism, pride.
But the Confederacy was, as you write about, a set of people who also had a sense of nationalism, pride.
Gary Gallagher
Well, and took their founding document. I mean, it took the whole summer of 1787 in Philadelphia, that hot, steamy, humid summer of 1787 to come up with the Constitution. The Confederates did it quickly ’cause they basically had the US Constitution here, a blank piece of paper over here,
Well, and took their founding document. I mean, it took the whole summer of 1787 in Philadelphia, that hot, steamy, humid summer of 1787 to come up with the Constitution. The Confederates did it quickly ’cause they basically had the US Constitution here, a blank piece of paper over here,
Gary Gallagher
… copied most of the Constitution over here, just changed the parts that they needed to make sure slavery was protected, and you didn’t have the wrong kind of tariffs and so forth. That’s one reason they could do it so quickly. It’s absolutely based on the government they’ve been thriving under, which is under the United States Constitution. Both sides claimed they were the true inheritors of the revolutionary generation. That was one of their… They all… Jefferson Davis loved the Declaration of Independence. The Declaration is Abraham Lincoln’s favorite document. They just liked different parts of it.
… copied most of the Constitution over here, just changed the parts that they needed to make sure slavery was protected, and you didn’t have the wrong kind of tariffs and so forth. That’s one reason they could do it so quickly. It’s absolutely based on the government they’ve been thriving under, which is under the United States Constitution. Both sides claimed they were the true inheritors of the revolutionary generation. That was one of their… They all… Jefferson Davis loved the Declaration of Independence. The Declaration is Abraham Lincoln’s favorite document. They just liked different parts of it.
Lex Fridman
So we should think of this as two republics.
So we should think of this as two republics.
Gary Gallagher
I argue that. That makes many people very angry.
I argue that. That makes many people very angry.
Lex Fridman
I will make many people angry today
I will make many people angry today
Gary Gallagher
They say that I am conferring legitimacy on the Confederacy that they don’t deserve, and my response to that is they have a national government. They have a Senate. They have a Congress. They have an army. They have a navy. They have departments. They… It’s… It walks like a duck. It quacks like a duck. In the end, it’s a slaughtered duck faster than it would’ve been because the United States military forces crushed it
They say that I am conferring legitimacy on the Confederacy that they don’t deserve, and my response to that is they have a national government. They have a Senate. They have a Congress. They have an army. They have a navy. They have departments. They… It’s… It walks like a duck. It quacks like a duck. In the end, it’s a slaughtered duck faster than it would’ve been because the United States military forces crushed it
Lex Fridman
We should say that you are respected, admired, loved by most people on both sides in, from a perspective sense. You’re deeply respected by historians of Civil War and just historians of American history. But of course, when you do your job well on a controversial topic in a controversial period of human history- … you’re going to get hopefully an equal amount of critics on both sides.
We should say that you are respected, admired, loved by most people on both sides in, from a perspective sense. You’re deeply respected by historians of Civil War and just historians of American history. But of course, when you do your job well on a controversial topic in a controversial period of human history- … you’re going to get hopefully an equal amount of critics on both sides.
Gary Gallagher
I-
I-
Lex Fridman
And that’s when you do your job well. So sometimes when we speak today, some of the controversial, quote-unquote, controversial things that you express are controversial from that small minority of folks on both sides for different reasons
And that’s when you do your job well. So sometimes when we speak today, some of the controversial, quote-unquote, controversial things that you express are controversial from that small minority of folks on both sides for different reasons
Gary Gallagher
Yes. I won’t be… One of my favorite pieces of hate mail I got was an email where this guy, I had… He was upset that I referred to the Confederacy as a slave-holding republic that was… And he said that he hoped I would develop virulent pancreatic cancer and die a horrible death. Not just regular pancreatic cancer. He wanted virulent pancreatic cancer And then he signed his name and said he’d be happy to talk to me anytime I wanted to
Yes. I won’t be… One of my favorite pieces of hate mail I got was an email where this guy, I had… He was upset that I referred to the Confederacy as a slave-holding republic that was… And he said that he hoped I would develop virulent pancreatic cancer and die a horrible death. Not just regular pancreatic cancer. He wanted virulent pancreatic cancer And then he signed his name and said he’d be happy to talk to me anytime I wanted to
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I’m sure that would be a wonderful conversation
Yeah. I’m sure that would be a wonderful conversation
Gary Gallagher
Yeah
Yeah
Lex Fridman
But there’s also really strong senses throughout the United States of this diversity of opinion of what is the United States
But there’s also really strong senses throughout the United States of this diversity of opinion of what is the United States
Gary Gallagher
Of course. Yes
Of course. Yes
Lex Fridman
And that’s where the passion is really rooted
And that’s where the passion is really rooted
Gary Gallagher
Both sides claim… In the election of 1860, Douglas talked about how much he loved the Union. Lincoln talked about how much he loved the Union. Breckinridge talked about how much he loved the Union. They’re all… And John Bell, who’s the Unionist, the Constitutional Union- That’s all he talked about. They just had different versions of what the Union was
Both sides claim… In the election of 1860, Douglas talked about how much he loved the Union. Lincoln talked about how much he loved the Union. Breckinridge talked about how much he loved the Union. They’re all… And John Bell, who’s the Unionist, the Constitutional Union- That’s all he talked about. They just had different versions of what the Union was
Lex Fridman
And that’s why I love this country. I think it’s the greatest country on Earth, and it has a bunch of people that very strongly disagree with each other. Of course hopefully never again escalating to the degree that it did during this period of time. So we talked about the blue people on the map and the red people on the map. It may be a silly thing to ask, but sticking with the motivation, why would, let’s say, a farm boy in Ohio-
And that’s why I love this country. I think it’s the greatest country on Earth, and it has a bunch of people that very strongly disagree with each other. Of course hopefully never again escalating to the degree that it did during this period of time. So we talked about the blue people on the map and the red people on the map. It may be a silly thing to ask, but sticking with the motivation, why would, let’s say, a farm boy in Ohio-
Gary Gallagher
Yeah
Yeah
Lex Fridman
… want to die for the Union?
… want to die for the Union?
Gary Gallagher
That is the most important, and I didn’t even ask you to ask that question. That’s the, that’s the hardest thing-
That is the most important, and I didn’t even ask you to ask that question. That’s the, that’s the hardest thing-
Lex Fridman
Let’s be honest. You paid me a lot of money to ask that question, yeah
Let’s be honest. You paid me a lot of money to ask that question, yeah
Gary Gallagher
I didn’t think it was so much
I didn’t think it was so much
Lex Fridman
Okay. I’m sorry. Go ahead. I won’t distract
Okay. I’m sorry. Go ahead. I won’t distract
Gary Gallagher
No. I tell my students at the beginning of my Civil War class that if they couldn’t explain, I didn’t use Ohio. I said, “If you can’t explain why a farmer from Vermont- … would put on a blue uniform and pick up a musket to make South Carolina come back in, why didn’t he just say, ‘Great. South Carolina’s gone. I never liked them anyway. This is a better union.’ If you can’t explain that, then you can’t understand the Civil War.” And the key to that, I’ll come back to it, is union because he would’ve said, “If we allow South Carolina to go, that means that other places could go and you could dismantle. And the only reason they’re going is because they didn’t like who was elected president.
No. I tell my students at the beginning of my Civil War class that if they couldn’t explain, I didn’t use Ohio. I said, “If you can’t explain why a farmer from Vermont- … would put on a blue uniform and pick up a musket to make South Carolina come back in, why didn’t he just say, ‘Great. South Carolina’s gone. I never liked them anyway. This is a better union.’ If you can’t explain that, then you can’t understand the Civil War.” And the key to that, I’ll come back to it, is union because he would’ve said, “If we allow South Carolina to go, that means that other places could go and you could dismantle. And the only reason they’re going is because they didn’t like who was elected president.
Gary Gallagher
They didn’t say that Lincoln was corrupt. They didn’t say Republicans bought the election. They just didn’t like who won the election. And so if the republic is so fragile that it can’t have an election without having the people who didn’t like who won leave, then the founders had wasted their time, the revolution was for nothing, all that bloodshed meant nothing. You had to step up and save this precious republic that was put in place by the revolutionary generation and gave its citizens the benefits that I’ve already talked about. That’s why they would put on a uniform and risk their life, because they believed a citizen… These are citizen soldiers. We don’t know what that means so much now because we have a professional military establishment now.
They didn’t say that Lincoln was corrupt. They didn’t say Republicans bought the election. They just didn’t like who won the election. And so if the republic is so fragile that it can’t have an election without having the people who didn’t like who won leave, then the founders had wasted their time, the revolution was for nothing, all that bloodshed meant nothing. You had to step up and save this precious republic that was put in place by the revolutionary generation and gave its citizens the benefits that I’ve already talked about. That’s why they would put on a uniform and risk their life, because they believed a citizen… These are citizen soldiers. We don’t know what that means so much now because we have a professional military establishment now.
Gary Gallagher
Not– I mean, even when I was younger, there was still a draft, but that’s gone now. And so we don’t understand what the concept of citizen soldier was, that you owe something back to the republic that has conveyed these things to you, and that’s why the guy from Vermont or New Hampshire or Ohio would put on a uniform and go into military service.
Not– I mean, even when I was younger, there was still a draft, but that’s gone now. And so we don’t understand what the concept of citizen soldier was, that you owe something back to the republic that has conveyed these things to you, and that’s why the guy from Vermont or New Hampshire or Ohio would put on a uniform and go into military service.
Lex Fridman
Is it possible for us to understand that level of love of nation and belief in nation? Is this very distant from what America is today?
Is it possible for us to understand that level of love of nation and belief in nation? Is this very distant from what America is today?
Gary Gallagher
I actually think many people probably still feel that way, but they’re not the ones who are on television- … most of the time. Republicans in the midst of the war commented about the fact that even with this gigantic conflict going on, immigration continued at a high level. People coming into a nation that was in the middle of a great war. And they said, “This is a testament to the promise of the United States.” And I think that promise continues. I mean, we’ve argued about… As with so many things, Americans have no sense of history. They believe we’ve never argued about immigration before. We’ve always argued about immigration, with some people always saying, “Shut the door. They’re ruining us. The Italians are ruining us. The Irish are Catholics. They’re ruining us.
I actually think many people probably still feel that way, but they’re not the ones who are on television- … most of the time. Republicans in the midst of the war commented about the fact that even with this gigantic conflict going on, immigration continued at a high level. People coming into a nation that was in the middle of a great war. And they said, “This is a testament to the promise of the United States.” And I think that promise continues. I mean, we’ve argued about… As with so many things, Americans have no sense of history. They believe we’ve never argued about immigration before. We’ve always argued about immigration, with some people always saying, “Shut the door. They’re ruining us. The Italians are ruining us. The Irish are Catholics. They’re ruining us.
Gary Gallagher
God, the Southern Europeans are even worse than the Irish were.” The people change, the arguments stay very much the same, and I think it’s really telling that in the midst of the war, people would say, “Look at our republic. It offers so much to people that even in the midst of this great war, they’re still coming- … to the United States.”
God, the Southern Europeans are even worse than the Irish were.” The people change, the arguments stay very much the same, and I think it’s really telling that in the midst of the war, people would say, “Look at our republic. It offers so much to people that even in the midst of this great war, they’re still coming- … to the United States.”
Lex Fridman
And like you said, both sides, both these republics claimed, for example, George Washington.
And like you said, both sides, both these republics claimed, for example, George Washington.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. They both claim… I’ll leave it at that. They both claim George Washington. They wanted to be right with the man, which is what George Washington was. He’s the indispensable man, no question. Both sides wanted him on their side. They both quoted Thomas Jefferson, although Confederates were a little more leery of Jefferson ’cause he’s too complicated for them sometimes. But no, they wanted to be right with the founders and claimed to be right with the founders. The Confederates would say, “The Constitution allowed slavery. What are you talking about we’re out of step with the Constitution? We’re in step with the Con- You’re the ones who are out of step with the Constitution.”
Yes. They both claim… I’ll leave it at that. They both claim George Washington. They wanted to be right with the man, which is what George Washington was. He’s the indispensable man, no question. Both sides wanted him on their side. They both quoted Thomas Jefferson, although Confederates were a little more leery of Jefferson ’cause he’s too complicated for them sometimes. But no, they wanted to be right with the founders and claimed to be right with the founders. The Confederates would say, “The Constitution allowed slavery. What are you talking about we’re out of step with the Constitution? We’re in step with the Con- You’re the ones who are out of step with the Constitution.”
Lex Fridman
What about the topic of states’ rights? At, at the very least-
What about the topic of states’ rights? At, at the very least-
Gary Gallagher
I love state rights. State rights… I mean, I love the way people use it with the Civil War. They associate it solely with Southern states- … of course. State rights is always available in United States history for somebody who’s not happy with what the federal government is doing. During the War of 1812, it was New England that most often talked- … about resorting to state rights. They had a convention where they sort of wandered over towards secession territory in the Hartford Convention. We think of it as state rights because as you lead up to the Civil War, you hear white Southerners talking about it all the time. “We need our state rights.” I always love to ask people who say that, “What are all the state rights?
I love state rights. State rights… I mean, I love the way people use it with the Civil War. They associate it solely with Southern states- … of course. State rights is always available in United States history for somebody who’s not happy with what the federal government is doing. During the War of 1812, it was New England that most often talked- … about resorting to state rights. They had a convention where they sort of wandered over towards secession territory in the Hartford Convention. We think of it as state rights because as you lead up to the Civil War, you hear white Southerners talking about it all the time. “We need our state rights.” I always love to ask people who say that, “What are all the state rights?
Gary Gallagher
Give me– List the state rights that the white South is concerned.”
Give me– List the state rights that the white South is concerned.”
Gary Gallagher
You know, “Give me the top three. No, really, just give me the top two.” There’s only one. The state right that they’re worried about is the right of their state to interpose its power between a federal government that might try to interfere with slavery and a state government that wants to maintain it. That’s the state right that matters then. Northern states also resorted to state rights during this, the ramp-up to the Civil War, with what were called personal liberty laws. They tried to interpose their state power in between a federal government that would use its power to force escaped, enslaved people back into slavery. It’s whoever’s unhappy with the federal government, the concept of state rights is available, and both sides used it.
You know, “Give me the top three. No, really, just give me the top two.” There’s only one. The state right that they’re worried about is the right of their state to interpose its power between a federal government that might try to interfere with slavery and a state government that wants to maintain it. That’s the state right that matters then. Northern states also resorted to state rights during this, the ramp-up to the Civil War, with what were called personal liberty laws. They tried to interpose their state power in between a federal government that would use its power to force escaped, enslaved people back into slavery. It’s whoever’s unhappy with the federal government, the concept of state rights is available, and both sides used it.
Lex Fridman
And of course, the beautiful, dark, ironic hypocrisy was illustrated by the Confederacy when they were the first to pass a national draft in American history.
And of course, the beautiful, dark, ironic hypocrisy was illustrated by the Confederacy when they were the first to pass a national draft in American history.
Gary Gallagher
Like, irony is wonderful- … in history. Another thing that I love to teach is that the most intrusive central government in American history, by far, until deep into the 20th century, was the Confederate central government, because it had to do things to keep the war going that it couldn’t have done unless the central government stepped in, such as passing the first national conscription law in American history. The government, the US government never forced people into uniform before the Civil War. The Confederates did it first. They did it in the spring of 1862. They passed a national graduated income tax. And when taxing didn’t work, when their money became so devalued, they then passed what they called the tax in kind. They would take a percentage of your crop.
Like, irony is wonderful- … in history. Another thing that I love to teach is that the most intrusive central government in American history, by far, until deep into the 20th century, was the Confederate central government, because it had to do things to keep the war going that it couldn’t have done unless the central government stepped in, such as passing the first national conscription law in American history. The government, the US government never forced people into uniform before the Civil War. The Confederates did it first. They did it in the spring of 1862. They passed a national graduated income tax. And when taxing didn’t work, when their money became so devalued, they then passed what they called the tax in kind. They would take a percentage of your crop.
Gary Gallagher
They allowed the government to impress horses and mules and enslaved labor to work on… All of these were intrusions from the central government that drove true state rights people crazy in the Confederacy. Confederates didn’t have political parties because they said the founders didn’t want them, so we won’t have them. But what they did have was a sort of nationalist, “We’re gonna let the central government do whatever it needs to do.” That’s Jefferson Davis’ wing, and Robert E. Lee’s over there, too. And the people like the vice president, Alexander Stephens, who said, “You can’t do all this stuff because the states should have more power.” The only reason the war lasted as long as it did is because the central government did things no one ever would have believed they would do.
They allowed the government to impress horses and mules and enslaved labor to work on… All of these were intrusions from the central government that drove true state rights people crazy in the Confederacy. Confederates didn’t have political parties because they said the founders didn’t want them, so we won’t have them. But what they did have was a sort of nationalist, “We’re gonna let the central government do whatever it needs to do.” That’s Jefferson Davis’ wing, and Robert E. Lee’s over there, too. And the people like the vice president, Alexander Stephens, who said, “You can’t do all this stuff because the states should have more power.” The only reason the war lasted as long as it did is because the central government did things no one ever would have believed they would do.
Gary Gallagher
He also got rid of habeas corpus just like Abraham Lincoln did in selected situations.
He also got rid of habeas corpus just like Abraham Lincoln did in selected situations.
Lex Fridman
And of course, we should really emphasize that on both sides, those volunteers, on the Confederacy, there’s a very large number of people percentage-wise that volunteered to fight. And then I believe the volunteer period was one year, and then there’s all kind of funky stuff that the government started doing to trap those people into then serving and-
And of course, we should really emphasize that on both sides, those volunteers, on the Confederacy, there’s a very large number of people percentage-wise that volunteered to fight. And then I believe the volunteer period was one year, and then there’s all kind of funky stuff that the government started doing to trap those people into then serving and-
Gary Gallagher
Here’s what the Confederacy did. They… Nobody thinks the war’s gonna last a long time- … in the spring of 1861. So if you enlist for a year- … that’s probably plenty of time to finish this war. Well, a year goes by and a significant percentage of the Confederate men under arms are due to get out. So what the Confederate Congress did was pass conscription. We’re gonna put every- make everybody liable to three-year service. And in the midst of doing that, all you guys who volunteered for one year are now in for two more years.
Here’s what the Confederacy did. They… Nobody thinks the war’s gonna last a long time- … in the spring of 1861. So if you enlist for a year- … that’s probably plenty of time to finish this war. Well, a year goes by and a significant percentage of the Confederate men under arms are due to get out. So what the Confederate Congress did was pass conscription. We’re gonna put every- make everybody liable to three-year service. And in the midst of doing that, all you guys who volunteered for one year are now in for two more years.
Gary Gallagher
Well, that outraged… I mean, “That’s, you’re breaking faith with us,” they said. They didn’t stop there. Later they revised it when the war kept going on and then the three years guys were gonna get out, then the Congress stepped in and said, “You’re in for the duration.” The bottom line is, the Confederacy ever gets you in uniform, you don’t get out because they keep changing the rules on you. And that was considered, national conscription was considered a fundamental abridgment of individual rights by many people. That’s something the government should never force a citizen into uniform. A citizen should volunteer their service. US government waited a year, then it did it in the spring of 1863, although it always respected original terms of enlistment.
Well, that outraged… I mean, “That’s, you’re breaking faith with us,” they said. They didn’t stop there. Later they revised it when the war kept going on and then the three years guys were gonna get out, then the Congress stepped in and said, “You’re in for the duration.” The bottom line is, the Confederacy ever gets you in uniform, you don’t get out because they keep changing the rules on you. And that was considered, national conscription was considered a fundamental abridgment of individual rights by many people. That’s something the government should never force a citizen into uniform. A citizen should volunteer their service. US government waited a year, then it did it in the spring of 1863, although it always respected original terms of enlistment.
Gary Gallagher
Never made it the war for the duration the way the Confederacy did.
Never made it the war for the duration the way the Confederacy did.
Lex Fridman
Quick pause for a bathroom break if it’s okay. Quick 10-second shout-out to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to my conversation with Gary Gallagher. All right, we’re back. There’s so many different directions we can go, but I am somebody who believes that individuals can steer the direction of history. So one angle to look at here is some of the legendary historical figures from this time.
Quick pause for a bathroom break if it’s okay. Quick 10-second shout-out to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to my conversation with Gary Gallagher. All right, we’re back. There’s so many different directions we can go, but I am somebody who believes that individuals can steer the direction of history. So one angle to look at here is some of the legendary historical figures from this time.
Lincoln
Lex Fridman
Let’s talk about some of the key figures of the Civil War. We have Abraham Lincoln, of course, the President of the United States who held the Union together and turned the war into a fight for a new birth of freedom. Jefferson Davis, who you mentioned, President of the Confederacy. Ulysses S. Grant, somebody we’ll talk about quite a bit, General in Chief of the Union armies. Robert E. Lee on the other side, the commander of the Army of Northern Virginia, somebody who you have studied for decades now. We’ll talk a lot about him. There’s Sherman, there’s Stonewall Jackson, there’s Frederick Douglass, there is McClellan, there is John Brown, a militant abolitionist. Many more figures, but let’s look at three at first. Let’s look at Lincoln, Grant, and Lee. Lincoln first.
Let’s talk about some of the key figures of the Civil War. We have Abraham Lincoln, of course, the President of the United States who held the Union together and turned the war into a fight for a new birth of freedom. Jefferson Davis, who you mentioned, President of the Confederacy. Ulysses S. Grant, somebody we’ll talk about quite a bit, General in Chief of the Union armies. Robert E. Lee on the other side, the commander of the Army of Northern Virginia, somebody who you have studied for decades now. We’ll talk a lot about him. There’s Sherman, there’s Stonewall Jackson, there’s Frederick Douglass, there is McClellan, there is John Brown, a militant abolitionist. Many more figures, but let’s look at three at first. Let’s look at Lincoln, Grant, and Lee. Lincoln first.
Lex Fridman
So Abraham Lincoln, we have this backwoods lawyer with a single year of schooling who somehow outgrew every polished man around him and became one of the most consequential leaders in human history. So what do we need to understand? What can we possibly understand at a 10,000-foot level about Lincoln that made it all possible? What was it about Lincoln’s mind that made this man do what he did?
So Abraham Lincoln, we have this backwoods lawyer with a single year of schooling who somehow outgrew every polished man around him and became one of the most consequential leaders in human history. So what do we need to understand? What can we possibly understand at a 10,000-foot level about Lincoln that made it all possible? What was it about Lincoln’s mind that made this man do what he did?
Gary Gallagher
Almost nobody continues to go up in my estimation as I get older and older, but Lincoln is one of the people who does. And Lincoln is quite frankly a mystery to me. I don’t see how you get Abraham Lincoln out of someone who came from his very poor background. You said he had a year of schooling. You’re being very generous to him there. He didn’t even really have a year of formal schooling. And you end up with a person who is the most eloquent president we’ve ever had by a very wide margin and I think even more eloquent than Jefferson, and who is able to distill into the fewest possible words the most complex ideas and topics imaginable and just have them ring in a way that almost no one is able to do. He is someone…
Almost nobody continues to go up in my estimation as I get older and older, but Lincoln is one of the people who does. And Lincoln is quite frankly a mystery to me. I don’t see how you get Abraham Lincoln out of someone who came from his very poor background. You said he had a year of schooling. You’re being very generous to him there. He didn’t even really have a year of formal schooling. And you end up with a person who is the most eloquent president we’ve ever had by a very wide margin and I think even more eloquent than Jefferson, and who is able to distill into the fewest possible words the most complex ideas and topics imaginable and just have them ring in a way that almost no one is able to do. He is someone…
Gary Gallagher
He had an ego, but I think one of his real gifts was the ability to put his ego aside and keep his eye on the goal. He was able to really focus, and he focused relentlessly on, number one, suppressing the rebellion and restoring the Union, but also getting… He hated the institution of slavery. He’s not an abolitionist, but he hated the institution of slavery and he was very happy to see that slavery was added to the roster of what the United States would insist on at the end of the war. He’s able to let all the other things go. He can pay attention to many things, but he never loses his… his principal focus was, “How do I maintain this great war?” And it’s an all- it’s really hard to get people to understand the scope of the Civil War.
He had an ego, but I think one of his real gifts was the ability to put his ego aside and keep his eye on the goal. He was able to really focus, and he focused relentlessly on, number one, suppressing the rebellion and restoring the Union, but also getting… He hated the institution of slavery. He’s not an abolitionist, but he hated the institution of slavery and he was very happy to see that slavery was added to the roster of what the United States would insist on at the end of the war. He’s able to let all the other things go. He can pay attention to many things, but he never loses his… his principal focus was, “How do I maintain this great war?” And it’s an all- it’s really hard to get people to understand the scope of the Civil War.
Gary Gallagher
There are 31 million people in the United States then. About a shade more than 3 million put on uniforms. It would be as if we had 35 to 40 million people under arms now. For the Confederates, it would be like having more like 55 million people-
There are 31 million people in the United States then. About a shade more than 3 million put on uniforms. It would be as if we had 35 to 40 million people under arms now. For the Confederates, it would be like having more like 55 million people-
Gary Gallagher
… under arms as a percentage of the population. The dead would be between 6 million and 7.5 million, depending on how you count it. The scope is just… During the Gulf Wars, New York Times put a picture of every United States service person who was killed, put a picture in the paper over the scope of those wars, and that is about as many people as were shot in a few hours at Antietam. It’s just very different to get students now to understand the different scale, and that’s what Lincoln’s dealing with. How do I keep the focus on a war that is becoming far more costly than anyone imagined, and eating up our young manpower at a rate that no one… There’s never been anything in our history to prepare the United States for this.
… under arms as a percentage of the population. The dead would be between 6 million and 7.5 million, depending on how you count it. The scope is just… During the Gulf Wars, New York Times put a picture of every United States service person who was killed, put a picture in the paper over the scope of those wars, and that is about as many people as were shot in a few hours at Antietam. It’s just very different to get students now to understand the different scale, and that’s what Lincoln’s dealing with. How do I keep the focus on a war that is becoming far more costly than anyone imagined, and eating up our young manpower at a rate that no one… There’s never been anything in our history to prepare the United States for this.
Gary Gallagher
Winfield Scott captured Mexico City with an army of fewer than 15,000 during the war with Mexico. US Grant has 120,000. I mean, the whole scale is just so different that it’s hard to come to terms with it.
Winfield Scott captured Mexico City with an army of fewer than 15,000 during the war with Mexico. US Grant has 120,000. I mean, the whole scale is just so different that it’s hard to come to terms with it.
Gary Gallagher
And that’s what Lincoln was dealing with. I think the fact that he was willing to surround himself with really able counselors is important. Who does he put in his cabinet? He puts his main rivals in the cabinet. He put William Henry Seward in his cabinet, who’s the most famous Republican in the country. He puts Salmon P. Chase, who’s a very smart and effective and ambitious person from Ohio, in his cabinet. He surrounds himself with people who are capable and energetic and have their own ambitions, he’s not afraid to do that, all of whom had far better educations than he had and didn’t have a rural backwoods accent like he did. It’s also a measure of how confident he was. He didn’t pretend to talk a way he… to talk in a fashion that he- … didn’t actually talk.
And that’s what Lincoln was dealing with. I think the fact that he was willing to surround himself with really able counselors is important. Who does he put in his cabinet? He puts his main rivals in the cabinet. He put William Henry Seward in his cabinet, who’s the most famous Republican in the country. He puts Salmon P. Chase, who’s a very smart and effective and ambitious person from Ohio, in his cabinet. He surrounds himself with people who are capable and energetic and have their own ambitions, he’s not afraid to do that, all of whom had far better educations than he had and didn’t have a rural backwoods accent like he did. It’s also a measure of how confident he was. He didn’t pretend to talk a way he… to talk in a fashion that he- … didn’t actually talk.
Gary Gallagher
He would’ve pronounced words in ways that anybody who went to Harvard would just sneer at. He didn’t, and he knew they sneered, and he didn’t care. Because eventually, all of them, except the ones with only a 20-watt bulb, figured out that Lincoln was actually probably smarter than they were and had a better grasp of things than they did and brought them around. He really brought Seward around, which is very impressive.
He would’ve pronounced words in ways that anybody who went to Harvard would just sneer at. He didn’t, and he knew they sneered, and he didn’t care. Because eventually, all of them, except the ones with only a 20-watt bulb, figured out that Lincoln was actually probably smarter than they were and had a better grasp of things than they did and brought them around. He really brought Seward around, which is very impressive.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there’s so many fascinating things about Lincoln. So backwoods of Kentucky, and Kentucky is a very important state in this story. And the right words, the right speeches, the right debates at this moment in history, it really does make me wonder, you know, if Lincoln didn’t exist, if certain humans in history didn’t exist, that everything could have turned out very differently.
Yeah, there’s so many fascinating things about Lincoln. So backwoods of Kentucky, and Kentucky is a very important state in this story. And the right words, the right speeches, the right debates at this moment in history, it really does make me wonder, you know, if Lincoln didn’t exist, if certain humans in history didn’t exist, that everything could have turned out very differently.
Gary Gallagher
The great forces are all that matters and individuals don’t really matter notion of history I think is ridiculous. Individuals really matter. For the United States, Lincoln and Grant matter beyond calculation- … in this, in this war. And on the Confederate side, if you take Lee out of the picture, the war doesn’t last nearly as long as it does. In fact, we’ll talk about this later probably, I think it could have ended early in the summer of 1862 with slavery still intact. I mean, in a perverse way, Lee furthers the cause of emancipation because he extends the war long enough that the United States says, “We have to do this. We’ve gotta get rid of slavery to defeat the rebels.”
The great forces are all that matters and individuals don’t really matter notion of history I think is ridiculous. Individuals really matter. For the United States, Lincoln and Grant matter beyond calculation- … in this, in this war. And on the Confederate side, if you take Lee out of the picture, the war doesn’t last nearly as long as it does. In fact, we’ll talk about this later probably, I think it could have ended early in the summer of 1862 with slavery still intact. I mean, in a perverse way, Lee furthers the cause of emancipation because he extends the war long enough that the United States says, “We have to do this. We’ve gotta get rid of slavery to defeat the rebels.”
Lex Fridman
So, and also on the psychological side, Lincoln is a, this is a fascinating study because he carried deep depression all his life.
So, and also on the psychological side, Lincoln is a, this is a fascinating study because he carried deep depression all his life.
Gary Gallagher
He had black, black moods in his life, yes, he did.
He had black, black moods in his life, yes, he did.
Lex Fridman
And so for somebody that has to go through an all-encompassing war, to be able to sort of survive through that, to think through that, without an education, without any acquired skill that enables him to be a commander-in-chief during a time of war. He’s got nothing in the toolbox, and yet he steps up.
And so for somebody that has to go through an all-encompassing war, to be able to sort of survive through that, to think through that, without an education, without any acquired skill that enables him to be a commander-in-chief during a time of war. He’s got nothing in the toolbox, and yet he steps up.
Gary Gallagher
If you looked at his resume and Jefferson Davis’s-
If you looked at his resume and Jefferson Davis’s-
Lex Fridman
Right
Right
Gary Gallagher
… in 1860 and said, “Okay, here, here are the two guys who are gonna be your respective commanders-in-chief. Who do you want on your team?”
… in 1860 and said, “Okay, here, here are the two guys who are gonna be your respective commanders-in-chief. Who do you want on your team?”
Gary Gallagher
Lincoln had no administrative experience beyond running a little law office. He had one two-year term in the House of Representatives in terms of national government. He had no military service to speak of, a little while in the Black Hawk War as a junior officer in the Black Hawk War. Didn’t check any of the education boxes, as you said. Jefferson Davis was a graduate of West Point. He’d commanded more men in the war with Mexico than most of the men who commanded armies during the Civil War. He’d chaired the Senate Committee on Military Affairs. He’d been Secretary of War, a lot of administrative experience. He checked every box. Lincoln checked none of the boxes, and yet you got Lincoln as a commander-in-chief. It’s really quite remarkable.
Lincoln had no administrative experience beyond running a little law office. He had one two-year term in the House of Representatives in terms of national government. He had no military service to speak of, a little while in the Black Hawk War as a junior officer in the Black Hawk War. Didn’t check any of the education boxes, as you said. Jefferson Davis was a graduate of West Point. He’d commanded more men in the war with Mexico than most of the men who commanded armies during the Civil War. He’d chaired the Senate Committee on Military Affairs. He’d been Secretary of War, a lot of administrative experience. He checked every box. Lincoln checked none of the boxes, and yet you got Lincoln as a commander-in-chief. It’s really quite remarkable.
Gary Gallagher
He could listen to people that he thought knew more about something than he did. That’s a quality that all of our presidents, to put it mildly, have not had. Lincoln did have that. He could listen. He could admit when he was wrong and change his mind about things, and he could put up with obnoxious behavior on the part of people that he thought might deliver the goods. And a perfect example of this is George Brinton McClellan, whom we’ll talk about later, his young… who was general-in-chief for a while, commanded the Army of the Potomac. In 1861, Lincoln and his Secretary of State, William Henry Seward, went to McClellan’s house to talk to McClellan. Went to McClellan’s house. The commander-in-chief goes to McClellan’s house. McClellan wasn’t there.
He could listen to people that he thought knew more about something than he did. That’s a quality that all of our presidents, to put it mildly, have not had. Lincoln did have that. He could listen. He could admit when he was wrong and change his mind about things, and he could put up with obnoxious behavior on the part of people that he thought might deliver the goods. And a perfect example of this is George Brinton McClellan, whom we’ll talk about later, his young… who was general-in-chief for a while, commanded the Army of the Potomac. In 1861, Lincoln and his Secretary of State, William Henry Seward, went to McClellan’s house to talk to McClellan. Went to McClellan’s house. The commander-in-chief goes to McClellan’s house. McClellan wasn’t there.
Gary Gallagher
The butler or somebody put them in a side room. McClellan came home, was told Lincoln was there. He went upstairs and then told the person who worked for him to go tell the president that he’d be happy to talk to him some other time. And so Lincoln just left. He never went back to see McClellan again, didn’t pitch a fit, filed that away. Okay, McClellan’s an ass, but I think he might win the war. I mean, he had that ability to do that, to put aside that kind of behavior on the part of someone if he thought they would deliver. He just has a number of qualities, I think, that are very unusual to find in someone. And as you say, he did have depressive moments, and he– we talk about how, what bad days presidents have.
The butler or somebody put them in a side room. McClellan came home, was told Lincoln was there. He went upstairs and then told the person who worked for him to go tell the president that he’d be happy to talk to him some other time. And so Lincoln just left. He never went back to see McClellan again, didn’t pitch a fit, filed that away. Okay, McClellan’s an ass, but I think he might win the war. I mean, he had that ability to do that, to put aside that kind of behavior on the part of someone if he thought they would deliver. He just has a number of qualities, I think, that are very unusual to find in someone. And as you say, he did have depressive moments, and he– we talk about how, what bad days presidents have.
Gary Gallagher
Now, Lincoln would have said, I’ll take that president’s worst day every day rather than the days that I get, for the most part. I mean, he– it’s hard to imagine the burdens that he carried.
Now, Lincoln would have said, I’ll take that president’s worst day every day rather than the days that I get, for the most part. I mean, he– it’s hard to imagine the burdens that he carried.
Lex Fridman
And at the right time was just a handful of words expressed something that no military could possibly do.
And at the right time was just a handful of words expressed something that no military could possibly do.
Gary Gallagher
Explain what the war was about, why it was worth fighting, what it meant, his second inaugural address. I mean, people went– when people went to hear the president give his second inaugural address on that cold day in 1865, what they wanted to hear, they finally beat the rebel scum from their point of view. Let’s have some retribution here. What are we going to do to them? How are we going to make these people who brought this great war pay for this? And what does Lincoln tell them? He tells them slavery caused it. Everybody knows that somehow that’s the truth, and we’re all implicated in it. I mean, he didn’t tell them anything that they wanted to hear that day. And it was– and it took great courage, I think, to do that at that moment, to tell an audience what they didn’t want to hear.
Explain what the war was about, why it was worth fighting, what it meant, his second inaugural address. I mean, people went– when people went to hear the president give his second inaugural address on that cold day in 1865, what they wanted to hear, they finally beat the rebel scum from their point of view. Let’s have some retribution here. What are we going to do to them? How are we going to make these people who brought this great war pay for this? And what does Lincoln tell them? He tells them slavery caused it. Everybody knows that somehow that’s the truth, and we’re all implicated in it. I mean, he didn’t tell them anything that they wanted to hear that day. And it was– and it took great courage, I think, to do that at that moment, to tell an audience what they didn’t want to hear.
Gary Gallagher
And he did it in the most eloquent language that any president’s– that’s the greatest speech in American history, the second inaugural, in my view.
And he did it in the most eloquent language that any president’s– that’s the greatest speech in American history, the second inaugural, in my view.
Lex Fridman
With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.
With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.
Gary Gallagher
And we’re all complicit in this because we all countenanced slavery. I mean, that’s all in that one speech. And it’s a short speech. The whole speech probably only lasted eight or nine minutes. And he also pays tribute to the citizen soldiers at the beginning of it because he says that the war is going well and we all know that everything depends on what our soldiers do. And by that he meant saving the union, killing slavery, it all depends on them. And then he comes back and finishes with his tribute to the soldiers at the end.
And we’re all complicit in this because we all countenanced slavery. I mean, that’s all in that one speech. And it’s a short speech. The whole speech probably only lasted eight or nine minutes. And he also pays tribute to the citizen soldiers at the beginning of it because he says that the war is going well and we all know that everything depends on what our soldiers do. And by that he meant saving the union, killing slavery, it all depends on them. And then he comes back and finishes with his tribute to the soldiers at the end.
Lex Fridman
And I have to say the Gettysburg Address.
And I have to say the Gettysburg Address.
Gary Gallagher
Oh, no, you can’t.
Oh, no, you can’t.
Lex Fridman
If I may, it’s only maybe 200 words. Four score and seven years ago, our fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation, conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal. Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation or any nation so conceived and so dedicated can long endure. We are met on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. But in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow this ground. The brave men living and dead who struggled here have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract.
If I may, it’s only maybe 200 words. Four score and seven years ago, our fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation, conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal. Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation or any nation so conceived and so dedicated can long endure. We are met on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. But in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow this ground. The brave men living and dead who struggled here have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract.
Lex Fridman
The world will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us, that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they here gave the last full measure of devotion, that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth. That’s a big statement about what this country is about. It’s about freedom.
The world will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us, that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they here gave the last full measure of devotion, that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth. That’s a big statement about what this country is about. It’s about freedom.
Gary Gallagher
And he comes back to, when most people read that, the very last part of it, they emphasize the prepositions of the people, by the people, for the people. Lincoln, it’s not about the prepositions. It’s about the people. He earlier in the war referred to this as a people’s contest. It’s the people that are the key, the people who make up the republic, the people who will derive the freedoms and liberties that the– I mean, it’s an amazing– and it probably took you two minutes to read that. He was finished before most people knew he had started at Gettysburg. Almost nobody heard him say that. The one thing wrong about it is when he said no one would remember very long what he said there. It’s been remembered pretty well.
And he comes back to, when most people read that, the very last part of it, they emphasize the prepositions of the people, by the people, for the people. Lincoln, it’s not about the prepositions. It’s about the people. He earlier in the war referred to this as a people’s contest. It’s the people that are the key, the people who make up the republic, the people who will derive the freedoms and liberties that the– I mean, it’s an amazing– and it probably took you two minutes to read that. He was finished before most people knew he had started at Gettysburg. Almost nobody heard him say that. The one thing wrong about it is when he said no one would remember very long what he said there. It’s been remembered pretty well.
Grant vs Lee
Lex Fridman
And let’s talk about the two other figures which we’ll return to time and time again: Ulysses S. Grant and Robert E. Lee. So who was Grant? So this is a man who failed at farming, failed at business, failed at his role in the peacetime army. Then when the war came, the war revealed a genius.
And let’s talk about the two other figures which we’ll return to time and time again: Ulysses S. Grant and Robert E. Lee. So who was Grant? So this is a man who failed at farming, failed at business, failed at his role in the peacetime army. Then when the war came, the war revealed a genius.
Gary Gallagher
So he’d known a lot of failure, he’d known a lot of setbacks, and his wartime record shows that he’d learned to deal with those things. He had a great, tremendous relationship with his wife, a very strong family life, a family he loved. I think that was the rock for him. But during the war, what he exhibited was an absolute willingness to break rules, to take risks, to take responsibility for what he was doing, whether it was a success or a failure, and not to be cast down by things that didn’t work. If something didn’t work, he’d say, “Okay, that didn’t work. Now let’s do this.” He very famously, when he got to Virginia in 1864 and took over the Army of the Potomac, he had all these subordinates who were saying, “Well, what if General Lee does this?
So he’d known a lot of failure, he’d known a lot of setbacks, and his wartime record shows that he’d learned to deal with those things. He had a great, tremendous relationship with his wife, a very strong family life, a family he loved. I think that was the rock for him. But during the war, what he exhibited was an absolute willingness to break rules, to take risks, to take responsibility for what he was doing, whether it was a success or a failure, and not to be cast down by things that didn’t work. If something didn’t work, he’d say, “Okay, that didn’t work. Now let’s do this.” He very famously, when he got to Virginia in 1864 and took over the Army of the Potomac, he had all these subordinates who were saying, “Well, what if General Lee does this?
Gary Gallagher
What if General Lee does that?” He finally said, “Why don’t we start– let’s not worry about what General Lee is gonna do and let General Lee worry about what we’re going to do?”
What if General Lee does that?” He finally said, “Why don’t we start– let’s not worry about what General Lee is gonna do and let General Lee worry about what we’re going to do?”
Gary Gallagher
I mean, he just had… He was unflappable under stress. He was the perfect person to end up heading the Union armies, and he and Lincoln– And Lincoln realized that, and he proved indispensable. But he has this reputation as a butcher, Grant the Butcher. That’s something that former Confederates and some Democrats in the North fastened on him. His preferred way of fighting wasn’t just kind of slug it out. It’s really interesting to compare his record in the war and Lee’s record in the war before they wound up opposing each other in Virginia in a really bloody overland campaign. Grant’s total casualties in all his great battles before they met were 37,000. Lee’s were over 98,000-
I mean, he just had… He was unflappable under stress. He was the perfect person to end up heading the Union armies, and he and Lincoln– And Lincoln realized that, and he proved indispensable. But he has this reputation as a butcher, Grant the Butcher. That’s something that former Confederates and some Democrats in the North fastened on him. His preferred way of fighting wasn’t just kind of slug it out. It’s really interesting to compare his record in the war and Lee’s record in the war before they wound up opposing each other in Virginia in a really bloody overland campaign. Grant’s total casualties in all his great battles before they met were 37,000. Lee’s were over 98,000-
Gary Gallagher
… in the same period. The bloodiest general in US history by far in terms of how many of his men get shot is Robert E. Lee. The most careful demographic study of any Civil War army is one done of Lee’s army by a scholar named Joe Glatthaar, and Joe figured out that if you were a soldier in Robert E. Lee’s army, you had a 73% chance of becoming a casualty. 73%. Grant’s casualties get high when he runs into Robert E. Lee, just like everybody else. So the butcher tag is completely unfair about Grant. He’s also known as a drunk, and people have gone back and forth on that, whether he just had a weakness, couldn’t hold his alcohol very well or was okay as long as his wife was around and he had a key staff officer to help him.
… in the same period. The bloodiest general in US history by far in terms of how many of his men get shot is Robert E. Lee. The most careful demographic study of any Civil War army is one done of Lee’s army by a scholar named Joe Glatthaar, and Joe figured out that if you were a soldier in Robert E. Lee’s army, you had a 73% chance of becoming a casualty. 73%. Grant’s casualties get high when he runs into Robert E. Lee, just like everybody else. So the butcher tag is completely unfair about Grant. He’s also known as a drunk, and people have gone back and forth on that, whether he just had a weakness, couldn’t hold his alcohol very well or was okay as long as his wife was around and he had a key staff officer to help him.
Gary Gallagher
The point is, alcohol never got in the way of anything Grant did during the war, and he had a superlative record of delivering victories when the United States needed them, and Lincoln figured that out. And the absolute proof of his stature because of this is that in the March of 1864, Congress decided to dust off the rank of three-star general, lieutenant general, and give it to Grant. The only person who’d ever had that rank was George Washington, the man, Jorge. I mean, he is the man. And so they are saying, “Okay, Grant, you get the rank the man had,” and that shows there’s never been anyone else who got it. You’re the first. And then he would also be the first to get a four-star rank in the United States Army. That…
The point is, alcohol never got in the way of anything Grant did during the war, and he had a superlative record of delivering victories when the United States needed them, and Lincoln figured that out. And the absolute proof of his stature because of this is that in the March of 1864, Congress decided to dust off the rank of three-star general, lieutenant general, and give it to Grant. The only person who’d ever had that rank was George Washington, the man, Jorge. I mean, he is the man. And so they are saying, “Okay, Grant, you get the rank the man had,” and that shows there’s never been anyone else who got it. You’re the first. And then he would also be the first to get a four-star rank in the United States Army. That…
Gary Gallagher
There couldn’t be a better indication of his stature than that he got R- Washington’s rank. Winfield Scott had had it by brevet. Grant got the actual rank.
There couldn’t be a better indication of his stature than that he got R- Washington’s rank. Winfield Scott had had it by brevet. Grant got the actual rank.
Lex Fridman
So in part, the Grant the Butcher label was from the Overland Campaign that we’ll talk about-
So in part, the Grant the Butcher label was from the Overland Campaign that we’ll talk about-
Gary Gallagher
It is from the Overland Campaign
It is from the Overland Campaign
Lex Fridman
… as the military decisions made there.
… as the military decisions made there.
Gary Gallagher
Yep.
Yep.
Lex Fridman
Many would argue that those are critically important for the success of the war.
Many would argue that those are critically important for the success of the war.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. He and Lee are often compared, but for the last year of the war, they’re operating on– it’s not apples to apples because Grant is general in chief and is managing the entire war effort. He’s managing what Sherman’s doing and what Sheridan’s doing and what Nathaniel Bank… Lee is an army commander. He can recommend things to Jefferson Davis, but he never commands more than an army, and so he never operates at the level that Grant did. Very late in the war, he was made general in chief when it was so late that it didn’t matter.
Yes. He and Lee are often compared, but for the last year of the war, they’re operating on– it’s not apples to apples because Grant is general in chief and is managing the entire war effort. He’s managing what Sherman’s doing and what Sheridan’s doing and what Nathaniel Bank… Lee is an army commander. He can recommend things to Jefferson Davis, but he never commands more than an army, and so he never operates at the level that Grant did. Very late in the war, he was made general in chief when it was so late that it didn’t matter.
Lex Fridman
So who was Robert E. Lee? In April 1861, Lee was offered command of the Union Army-
So who was Robert E. Lee? In April 1861, Lee was offered command of the Union Army-
Gary Gallagher
He was
He was
Lex Fridman
… and chose Virginia instead.
… and chose Virginia instead.
Gary Gallagher
He did.
He did.
Lex Fridman
What was he actually choosing in that decision? Was he choosing home? Was he choosing honor? Was he choosing slavery? And maybe just zooming out, what do we need to understand in the early steps about Robert E. Lee? Who was the man?
What was he actually choosing in that decision? Was he choosing home? Was he choosing honor? Was he choosing slavery? And maybe just zooming out, what do we need to understand in the early steps about Robert E. Lee? Who was the man?
Gary Gallagher
Well, Lee is sort of the antithesis of Grant in some ways. Lee is from an aristocratic family. Grant was from a solidly middle-class family. Lee’s from an aristocratic family at the very top of the Virginia aristocracy. The Lees are all… He has uncles who were prominent, two signed the Declaration of Independence. His father was a famous commander under George Washington. He’s– His father’s the one who said that Washington was first in war, first in peace, first in the hearts of his countrymen. That’s Lee’s father, who was later a prominent Virginia politician. Lee’s idol is George Washington. He patterns himself on Washington. He differs from him in some ways, but he patterns himself on Washington.
Well, Lee is sort of the antithesis of Grant in some ways. Lee is from an aristocratic family. Grant was from a solidly middle-class family. Lee’s from an aristocratic family at the very top of the Virginia aristocracy. The Lees are all… He has uncles who were prominent, two signed the Declaration of Independence. His father was a famous commander under George Washington. He’s– His father’s the one who said that Washington was first in war, first in peace, first in the hearts of his countrymen. That’s Lee’s father, who was later a prominent Virginia politician. Lee’s idol is George Washington. He patterns himself on Washington. He differs from him in some ways, but he patterns himself on Washington.
Gary Gallagher
He considered Washington the most admirable person in United States history. And then, of course, he almost undoes the work that George Washington put in place during the American Revolution. He chose Virginia. He didn’t leave… He didn’t resign his commission in the United States Army to go with the Confederacy. He resigned his commission in the United States Army to go to Virginia, which wasn’t in the Confederacy yet, become the head of state forces in Virginia. But then when Virginia went into the Confederacy, he took his Confederate commission and ended up as the third-ranking officer in Confederate service, and he makes an easy transition to Confederate loyalty. I think it’s his loyalty to Virginia and what that means.
He considered Washington the most admirable person in United States history. And then, of course, he almost undoes the work that George Washington put in place during the American Revolution. He chose Virginia. He didn’t leave… He didn’t resign his commission in the United States Army to go with the Confederacy. He resigned his commission in the United States Army to go to Virginia, which wasn’t in the Confederacy yet, become the head of state forces in Virginia. But then when Virginia went into the Confederacy, he took his Confederate commission and ended up as the third-ranking officer in Confederate service, and he makes an easy transition to Confederate loyalty. I think it’s his loyalty to Virginia and what that means.
Gary Gallagher
That means his family, and of course that means slavery. That’s part of what that loyalty is. He’s devoted to the slave-holding South as well as to Virginia. Virginia’s a subset of that. All of that is in one bundle with Lee. It’s all… But he also had been an ardent US nationalist earlier in his career, and a very successful military officer. Winfield Scott thought he was the greatest soldier in the army, and Scott, he probably really thought, “Except for me.” But Scott is a great soldier that people don’t remember that way because he became a kind of Jabba the Hutt figure by the time of the Civil War. He’s enormous, weighs 350 pounds, has to be winched onto his horse. But he was a very smart guy and he thought very highly of Lee.
That means his family, and of course that means slavery. That’s part of what that loyalty is. He’s devoted to the slave-holding South as well as to Virginia. Virginia’s a subset of that. All of that is in one bundle with Lee. It’s all… But he also had been an ardent US nationalist earlier in his career, and a very successful military officer. Winfield Scott thought he was the greatest soldier in the army, and Scott, he probably really thought, “Except for me.” But Scott is a great soldier that people don’t remember that way because he became a kind of Jabba the Hutt figure by the time of the Civil War. He’s enormous, weighs 350 pounds, has to be winched onto his horse. But he was a very smart guy and he thought very highly of Lee.
Gary Gallagher
Lee was a superb soldier, as he would show during the war, but he’s on the wrong side.
Lee was a superb soldier, as he would show during the war, but he’s on the wrong side.
Lex Fridman
Maybe just to throw in a few more characters, I do think the folks on both sides that are of the more radical persuasion are quite interesting. Somebody you spoke about, I’m not sure where, I think it might’ve been in your lecture series, about Thaddeus Stevens.
Maybe just to throw in a few more characters, I do think the folks on both sides that are of the more radical persuasion are quite interesting. Somebody you spoke about, I’m not sure where, I think it might’ve been in your lecture series, about Thaddeus Stevens.
Gary Gallagher
Yes, Thaddeus Stevens.
Yes, Thaddeus Stevens.
Lex Fridman
He’s a-
He’s a-
Gary Gallagher
Thaddeus Stevens was one of the most radical of the radical Republicans. He’s a congressman from Pennsylvania who… People think people say harsh things now in Congress; Thaddeus Stevens just eviscerated people. And he was way out… I mean, he was an ardent abolitionist and for equal rights for women in many ways and he picked up a number of causes and championed them.
Thaddeus Stevens was one of the most radical of the radical Republicans. He’s a congressman from Pennsylvania who… People think people say harsh things now in Congress; Thaddeus Stevens just eviscerated people. And he was way out… I mean, he was an ardent abolitionist and for equal rights for women in many ways and he picked up a number of causes and championed them.
Lex Fridman
I think in your lecture you mentioned this thing which I just love, the slime line.
I think in your lecture you mentioned this thing which I just love, the slime line.
Gary Gallagher
He had a- This is his kind of line. He’s sitting in the House of Representatives and one of his opponents- … and he’s speaking, and one of his opponents starts to come down to the floor and he says, and this is a paraphrase, “I’m gonna pause while my colleague,” from wherever he was from, “slinks across the floor of this House and adheres to his seat by his own slime.”
He had a- This is his kind of line. He’s sitting in the House of Representatives and one of his opponents- … and he’s speaking, and one of his opponents starts to come down to the floor and he says, and this is a paraphrase, “I’m gonna pause while my colleague,” from wherever he was from, “slinks across the floor of this House and adheres to his seat by his own slime.”
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Beautiful.
Yeah. Beautiful.
Gary Gallagher
That’s a great line. Impromptu. He had a… Women used to ask for locks of hair as, from famous people, and he was completely bald and wore a full wig. He had a woman stop him on the steps to the Capitol and ask for a lock of his hair, took his whole wig off and said, “Madam, have them all.” And c-
That’s a great line. Impromptu. He had a… Women used to ask for locks of hair as, from famous people, and he was completely bald and wore a full wig. He had a woman stop him on the steps to the Capitol and ask for a lock of his hair, took his whole wig off and said, “Madam, have them all.” And c-
Lex Fridman
Which is brilliant.
Which is brilliant.
Gary Gallagher
… no it’s very good.
… no it’s very good.
Lex Fridman
But of the radical persuasion.
But of the radical persuasion.
Gary Gallagher
Oh, absolutely. Yes, he defined it. He is the character in Birth of a Nation that Stoneman, the character in Stoneman, the evil radical Republican named Stoneman, is patterned on Thaddeus Stevens.
Oh, absolutely. Yes, he defined it. He is the character in Birth of a Nation that Stoneman, the character in Stoneman, the evil radical Republican named Stoneman, is patterned on Thaddeus Stevens.
Could the Civil War have been avoided?
Lex Fridman
All right. If we can, let’s talk about the buildup to the war. What were the key states on both sides that were debating? What are the ones that were certainly going to be firmly on one side or the other? And maybe what are the ones that were critical at the, at the borderline?
All right. If we can, let’s talk about the buildup to the war. What were the key states on both sides that were debating? What are the ones that were certainly going to be firmly on one side or the other? And maybe what are the ones that were critical at the, at the borderline?
Gary Gallagher
The states that were in the forefront of the secession movement were the Deep South states, and South Carolina was kind of ground central for what was going on there. It just so happened that the Democrats had their national convention in Charleston in 1860, which is the worst place in the world they could’ve had it if they wanted a quiet, rational discussion of anything.
The states that were in the forefront of the secession movement were the Deep South states, and South Carolina was kind of ground central for what was going on there. It just so happened that the Democrats had their national convention in Charleston in 1860, which is the worst place in the world they could’ve had it if they wanted a quiet, rational discussion of anything.
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Gary Gallagher
South Carolina is the first state to secede, and then is quickly followed. You can just go the tier across Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Texas. That’s the re- It’s seven states. The Deep South states go out in that initial… But there’s a long period then, and they gather in Montgomery, Alabama, to establish a new government with Montgomery as the capital of the Confederacy.
South Carolina is the first state to secede, and then is quickly followed. You can just go the tier across Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Texas. That’s the re- It’s seven states. The Deep South states go out in that initial… But there’s a long period then, and they gather in Montgomery, Alabama, to establish a new government with Montgomery as the capital of the Confederacy.
Gary Gallagher
Delegates from those states do. And they set up a provisional government that’s gonna last a year and call for the first national elections in 1861. There are only seven states there, and really only six for a lot of it ’cause Texas got there late. It was the last of the first seven to secede. But the states that haven’t seceded yet are the ones with the most people. Virginia, which is the most populous, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri. Eight states have not gone out. Eight slave-holding states have not gone out. The most important one is Virginia among those that-
Delegates from those states do. And they set up a provisional government that’s gonna last a year and call for the first national elections in 1861. There are only seven states there, and really only six for a lot of it ’cause Texas got there late. It was the last of the first seven to secede. But the states that haven’t seceded yet are the ones with the most people. Virginia, which is the most populous, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri. Eight states have not gone out. Eight slave-holding states have not gone out. The most important one is Virginia among those that-
Gary Gallagher
… that have not gone out. The question is, can they find some resolution to all of this, or is it gonna get more serious, and are those states gonna go? And it came to focus, once again, on Charleston, South Carolina, and a federal installation in Charleston Harbor, Fort Sumter. Much United States property and installations had been just given over to the Confederates.
… that have not gone out. The question is, can they find some resolution to all of this, or is it gonna get more serious, and are those states gonna go? And it came to focus, once again, on Charleston, South Carolina, and a federal installation in Charleston Harbor, Fort Sumter. Much United States property and installations had been just given over to the Confederates.
Gary Gallagher
And the question is, can we do it with this one as well? This is a very difficult decision to make, and it comes down to what’s gonna happen in Charleston Harbor. And in the end, I mean, Jefferson Davis believed that he couldn’t allow it to remain a federal installation ’cause it’s actually in the Confederacy from their point of view. And Lincoln, who’s not conceding the right of states to secede, they’re, they’re temporarily out of our power, but we have to maintain… He decided in the end to maintain power there, not to reinforce it, but to resupply it, needed supplies. And that’s what triggers it. Then, then the ball’s in Jefferson Davis’ court: “Okay, they’re gonna resupply it.
And the question is, can we do it with this one as well? This is a very difficult decision to make, and it comes down to what’s gonna happen in Charleston Harbor. And in the end, I mean, Jefferson Davis believed that he couldn’t allow it to remain a federal installation ’cause it’s actually in the Confederacy from their point of view. And Lincoln, who’s not conceding the right of states to secede, they’re, they’re temporarily out of our power, but we have to maintain… He decided in the end to maintain power there, not to reinforce it, but to resupply it, needed supplies. And that’s what triggers it. Then, then the ball’s in Jefferson Davis’ court: “Okay, they’re gonna resupply it.
Gary Gallagher
What do we do?” And they decided we need to insist that it surrender, and if it won’t surrender, we need to fire on it. And the Confederates fired the first shots. They would’ve said, “We were forced to fire the first shots by what Lincoln did.” N- nobody wanted to be the ones who fired the first shots. But in the end, it’s the Confederates who fired the first shots. And once that is fired, the key thing, the key thing is not the firing on Sumter in the end, but that sets up the key thing, which is Lincoln’s call for volunteers to suppress the rebellion, and he is gonna ask each state to supply people. And the Upper South states, most of them have said, “We’re not gonna secede, but you can’t… But the states that are gone had the right to secede-
What do we do?” And they decided we need to insist that it surrender, and if it won’t surrender, we need to fire on it. And the Confederates fired the first shots. They would’ve said, “We were forced to fire the first shots by what Lincoln did.” N- nobody wanted to be the ones who fired the first shots. But in the end, it’s the Confederates who fired the first shots. And once that is fired, the key thing, the key thing is not the firing on Sumter in the end, but that sets up the key thing, which is Lincoln’s call for volunteers to suppress the rebellion, and he is gonna ask each state to supply people. And the Upper South states, most of them have said, “We’re not gonna secede, but you can’t… But the states that are gone had the right to secede-
Gary Gallagher
… and you can’t do anything to make them come back.” Lincoln is seeming to make them do things to come back. And so four more states went out. Virginia went out. Arkansas went out. Tennessee went out. Then North Carolina went out. And now you have an 11-state Confederacy rather than seven. But more than that, you have Virginia. The city of Richmond has 40% of all the industrial capacity in the entire Confederacy, what became the Confederacy. Virginia is the most populous state, has the largest slave population, the largest white population. It supplies the most important military leaders. And the capital ends up in Richmond. They move from Montgomery to Richmond in acknowledgment of how important Richmond is, that this is the key state.
… and you can’t do anything to make them come back.” Lincoln is seeming to make them do things to come back. And so four more states went out. Virginia went out. Arkansas went out. Tennessee went out. Then North Carolina went out. And now you have an 11-state Confederacy rather than seven. But more than that, you have Virginia. The city of Richmond has 40% of all the industrial capacity in the entire Confederacy, what became the Confederacy. Virginia is the most populous state, has the largest slave population, the largest white population. It supplies the most important military leaders. And the capital ends up in Richmond. They move from Montgomery to Richmond in acknowledgment of how important Richmond is, that this is the key state.
Gary Gallagher
The key states that didn’t go out were Maryland, Kentucky, and Missouri. Delaware didn’t either, but who cares? The other three didn’t go out, and that really mattered because they were more populous. But 11 are gone. Four remain in the Union.
The key states that didn’t go out were Maryland, Kentucky, and Missouri. Delaware didn’t either, but who cares? The other three didn’t go out, and that really mattered because they were more populous. But 11 are gone. Four remain in the Union.
Lex Fridman
And to lay out some more context, going to Perplexity here, by total enslaved population on the eve of the Civil War, we have looking at the top five states, Virginia, as you said, with the most number of slaves, 490,000. Then Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, all with over 400,000 slaves.
And to lay out some more context, going to Perplexity here, by total enslaved population on the eve of the Civil War, we have looking at the top five states, Virginia, as you said, with the most number of slaves, 490,000. Then Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, all with over 400,000 slaves.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. And Mississippi and South Carolina have the highest proportion of enslaved people of any of the states. And this is an interesting little fact from the 1860 census. When you’re talking about white people in the United States, those are the two wealthiest states per capita in the United States, are South Carolina and Mississippi in 1860.
Yes. And Mississippi and South Carolina have the highest proportion of enslaved people of any of the states. And this is an interesting little fact from the 1860 census. When you’re talking about white people in the United States, those are the two wealthiest states per capita in the United States, are South Carolina and Mississippi in 1860.
Lex Fridman
Boy, the complicated history of this great nation of ours.
Boy, the complicated history of this great nation of ours.
Gary Gallagher
It’s hard to overstate the resources. The states that sent the most men into the Confederate Army are Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Georgia. Three of those come in this second wave of secessions. Three of them, three of the four. Only Georgia among the original ones was in those top four states. And so you would have had a much, much smaller pool of manpower for that earlier version of the Confederacy. It’s inconceivable to me that you would have had the war we had with just that version.
It’s hard to overstate the resources. The states that sent the most men into the Confederate Army are Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Georgia. Three of those come in this second wave of secessions. Three of them, three of the four. Only Georgia among the original ones was in those top four states. And so you would have had a much, much smaller pool of manpower for that earlier version of the Confederacy. It’s inconceivable to me that you would have had the war we had with just that version.
Lex Fridman
So it does feel, just to linger on it, like there was a lot on the balance here. Like there was a lot of different decisions that could have been made, even on the political side, that could have turned the tides.
So it does feel, just to linger on it, like there was a lot on the balance here. Like there was a lot of different decisions that could have been made, even on the political side, that could have turned the tides.
Gary Gallagher
For example, there’s a secession convention in Virginia. It goes in… It votes twice against secession. Twice. It’s only after Sumter that they come back for another vote. I mean, it’s a Unionist vote in that convention in, in Virginia. And it’s only after Fort Sumter. And then it’s still so divided that a big chunk of Virginia decide that’s how you get West Virginia. West Virginia essentially secedes from Virginia- … in the course of the Civil War.
For example, there’s a secession convention in Virginia. It goes in… It votes twice against secession. Twice. It’s only after Sumter that they come back for another vote. I mean, it’s a Unionist vote in that convention in, in Virginia. And it’s only after Fort Sumter. And then it’s still so divided that a big chunk of Virginia decide that’s how you get West Virginia. West Virginia essentially secedes from Virginia- … in the course of the Civil War.
Lex Fridman
And given the industrial capacity of Virginia, that was a critical state. So it could have been… Virginia could have changed. We could have avoided the Civil War with Virginia alone.
And given the industrial capacity of Virginia, that was a critical state. So it could have been… Virginia could have changed. We could have avoided the Civil War with Virginia alone.
Gary Gallagher
It would have really changed. I mean, Virginia is the key. Virginia is the key because of the manpower, the industrial capacity, the food production, and Virginia gives you Lee, Jackson, Jeb Stuart. I mean, and the most soldiers of any state in the Confederacy. It’s just, it’s a real game changer to get Virginia. Plus, it also gives you these unbelievable ties to the revolutionary generation. Hey, it’s George’s home state. It is now in the Confederacy with his big statue on the Capitol grounds of George Washington. I mean, gives you, you get Washington, the ties to Jefferson, the ties to Madison. All of this comes in with Virginia.
It would have really changed. I mean, Virginia is the key. Virginia is the key because of the manpower, the industrial capacity, the food production, and Virginia gives you Lee, Jackson, Jeb Stuart. I mean, and the most soldiers of any state in the Confederacy. It’s just, it’s a real game changer to get Virginia. Plus, it also gives you these unbelievable ties to the revolutionary generation. Hey, it’s George’s home state. It is now in the Confederacy with his big statue on the Capitol grounds of George Washington. I mean, gives you, you get Washington, the ties to Jefferson, the ties to Madison. All of this comes in with Virginia.
Lex Fridman
So I think a lot of historians have said that the Civil War was inevitable. It… You’re really painting a picture here where it perhaps was not inevitable.
So I think a lot of historians have said that the Civil War was inevitable. It… You’re really painting a picture here where it perhaps was not inevitable.
Gary Gallagher
I don’t think it’s inevitable. Things happen in a sequence. I was at an academic conference once when they were trying to decide what important dates were, and they concluded that no dates are, dates are an artificial construction. No date is more important than any other.
I don’t think it’s inevitable. Things happen in a sequence. I was at an academic conference once when they were trying to decide what important dates were, and they concluded that no dates are, dates are an artificial construction. No date is more important than any other.
Gary Gallagher
That is so obviously preposterous. I mean, things happen in a sequence. They don’t just sort of happen. Lincoln’s elected, then South Carolina secedes, then other states secede, then… I mean, things happen as a consequence of what happened before, and you have these various things that have to happen before the next thing does. And then we end up with a war that seems to be inevitable, but it’s not… It’s just the way things played out. All of these factors are in motion, and you end up with the sequence that gets you to where people start shooting each other.
That is so obviously preposterous. I mean, things happen in a sequence. They don’t just sort of happen. Lincoln’s elected, then South Carolina secedes, then other states secede, then… I mean, things happen as a consequence of what happened before, and you have these various things that have to happen before the next thing does. And then we end up with a war that seems to be inevitable, but it’s not… It’s just the way things played out. All of these factors are in motion, and you end up with the sequence that gets you to where people start shooting each other.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. When you read history and look back, it seems inevitable. But if we were to place ourselves in that moment of time, do you think there’s decisions that could have been made?
Yeah. When you read history and look back, it seems inevitable. But if we were to place ourselves in that moment of time, do you think there’s decisions that could have been made?
Gary Gallagher
The decision to not let Fort Sumter, I mean, that’s a big decision to make. If they had just, if Lincoln had just said, “Go ahead and take Fort Sumter,” okay, then maybe… Then what would it have taken to trigger the departure of those upper South states? That would have changed that whole equation. But Lincoln decided you just can’t keep giving them everything that they want if you don’t concede that they have the right to do what they did.
The decision to not let Fort Sumter, I mean, that’s a big decision to make. If they had just, if Lincoln had just said, “Go ahead and take Fort Sumter,” okay, then maybe… Then what would it have taken to trigger the departure of those upper South states? That would have changed that whole equation. But Lincoln decided you just can’t keep giving them everything that they want if you don’t concede that they have the right to do what they did.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, there would be continued heated political debates, intense political debates about the expansion of slavery, but it would not cause rebellion to then escalate into a full-on hot war.
Yeah, there would be continued heated political debates, intense political debates about the expansion of slavery, but it would not cause rebellion to then escalate into a full-on hot war.
Gary Gallagher
I think that’s conceivable. I don’t think the war was inevitable. But I think the conditions were present for it to happen, obviously. I mean, that’s stating… ‘Cause it did happen. But I think it’s very tricky to just say that it was inevitable. That’s kind of starting at the end of the story and just saying, “Let’s look at the factors that got us here. We know it was gonna happen, and these are the things that pointed this direction.”
I think that’s conceivable. I don’t think the war was inevitable. But I think the conditions were present for it to happen, obviously. I mean, that’s stating… ‘Cause it did happen. But I think it’s very tricky to just say that it was inevitable. That’s kind of starting at the end of the story and just saying, “Let’s look at the factors that got us here. We know it was gonna happen, and these are the things that pointed this direction.”
The bloodiest war in US history
Lex Fridman
Can we just actually linger on this, on the nature of war? Over 700,000 people dead. How do we make sense of our capacity as, in that context, Americans? To kill sometimes literally our brothers…
Can we just actually linger on this, on the nature of war? Over 700,000 people dead. How do we make sense of our capacity as, in that context, Americans? To kill sometimes literally our brothers…
Gary Gallagher
Yes, sometimes literally our brothers.
Yes, sometimes literally our brothers.
Lex Fridman
How is that even possible?
How is that even possible?
Gary Gallagher
Well, one thing, it tells me things are pretty important to people on both sides if you’re gonna continue for a war that long. I mean, there was a period in the literature, in the scholarly literature in the 1980s and into the 1990s where they argued that the Confederacy wasn’t a nation, and the proof was that they didn’t try very hard, that they… If they’d really thought of themselves as a nation, they would have tried harder and fought longer. Well, they lost between four and a half and five and a half percent of their entire population, which is more than Great Britain, France, Germany, or Russia during World War I. They had a higher percentage loss than any of the powers in World War I. The US lost about 1.8% of its population from the war.
Well, one thing, it tells me things are pretty important to people on both sides if you’re gonna continue for a war that long. I mean, there was a period in the literature, in the scholarly literature in the 1980s and into the 1990s where they argued that the Confederacy wasn’t a nation, and the proof was that they didn’t try very hard, that they… If they’d really thought of themselves as a nation, they would have tried harder and fought longer. Well, they lost between four and a half and five and a half percent of their entire population, which is more than Great Britain, France, Germany, or Russia during World War I. They had a higher percentage loss than any of the powers in World War I. The US lost about 1.8% of its population from the war.
Gary Gallagher
US, in World War II, three-tenths of 1% of its popula-… That seems… They lost more than 30% of their entire white military-age males in the war. It’d be the equivalent of about 18 million Americans being killed now in a war. That seems to me that they’re pretty serious about something there.
US, in World War II, three-tenths of 1% of its popula-… That seems… They lost more than 30% of their entire white military-age males in the war. It’d be the equivalent of about 18 million Americans being killed now in a war. That seems to me that they’re pretty serious about something there.
Lex Fridman
It means that’s one of the largest percentages of loss. That’s… If that’s a measure of dedication-
It means that’s one of the largest percentages of loss. That’s… If that’s a measure of dedication-
Gary Gallagher
If that’s your measure of dedication, yes, and it seems to me that it should be one of the metrics that you bring to play that it’s… They just keep at it. They didn’t give up easily.
If that’s your measure of dedication, yes, and it seems to me that it should be one of the metrics that you bring to play that it’s… They just keep at it. They didn’t give up easily.
Lex Fridman
What can we say about the motivation? On the psychological side, did the members of the Confederacy hate the members of the Union?
What can we say about the motivation? On the psychological side, did the members of the Confederacy hate the members of the Union?
Gary Gallagher
Well, that escalated on both sides during the war. As more and more loss came, they did. There was more hatred directed toward the enemy more and more. This notion that it’s they’re all brothers and not really mad at each other and… That just doesn’t hold up. There are places where the soldiers fraternized with one another and traded tobacco for coffee and that kind of stuff, but no, the bitterness as the war went on, and there was greater loss on the home front, and as the war became more all-encompassing and really went after the entire… the civilian side of the Confederacy was not shielded from it, the bitterness increased and increased and increased.
Well, that escalated on both sides during the war. As more and more loss came, they did. There was more hatred directed toward the enemy more and more. This notion that it’s they’re all brothers and not really mad at each other and… That just doesn’t hold up. There are places where the soldiers fraternized with one another and traded tobacco for coffee and that kind of stuff, but no, the bitterness as the war went on, and there was greater loss on the home front, and as the war became more all-encompassing and really went after the entire… the civilian side of the Confederacy was not shielded from it, the bitterness increased and increased and increased.
Gary Gallagher
And there’s a lot of unhappiness with the war behind the lines in the Confederacy, absolutely, unhappiness with the government. There’s desertion. About 15% of Confederate soldiers deserted. About 12% of United States soldiers deserted. So there’s desertion on both sides. There’s war-weariness, but the war goes on because I think if you had been able to poll most white Southerners even late in the war and say, “Okay, here are your choices. You either have Jefferson Davis in the government and the war goes on, or you’re going back into the United States and the Lincoln government will be in charge and you won’t have slavery. Which one do you pick?” They’re gonna pick the first one, and that’s why the war went on as long as it did.
And there’s a lot of unhappiness with the war behind the lines in the Confederacy, absolutely, unhappiness with the government. There’s desertion. About 15% of Confederate soldiers deserted. About 12% of United States soldiers deserted. So there’s desertion on both sides. There’s war-weariness, but the war goes on because I think if you had been able to poll most white Southerners even late in the war and say, “Okay, here are your choices. You either have Jefferson Davis in the government and the war goes on, or you’re going back into the United States and the Lincoln government will be in charge and you won’t have slavery. Which one do you pick?” They’re gonna pick the first one, and that’s why the war went on as long as it did.
Lex Fridman
But at the same time, to fast-forward, and that maybe teaches you something about the nature of war, but after the war, maybe some of the decisions that Grant made, people were able to rediscover the brotherhood.
But at the same time, to fast-forward, and that maybe teaches you something about the nature of war, but after the war, maybe some of the decisions that Grant made, people were able to rediscover the brotherhood.
Gary Gallagher
You mean at Appomattox you’re talking about-
You mean at Appomattox you’re talking about-
Lex Fridman
Appomattox
Appomattox
Gary Gallagher
… the terms at Appomattox. Yes, the… And those were… And he didn’t just reach up in the air and say, “I’ve got some terms.” The… Lincoln very specifically… He met with Lincoln shortly before Appomattox. Sherman was there. One top naval officer was there, Grant and Lincoln, and Lincoln said, “This is what I want. This is the kind of peace I want.” “The whole point of this war is to put the nation back together, and a good start on that is…” I mean, if it’s just a rebellion, what do you do with traitors and rebels? You hang them.
… the terms at Appomattox. Yes, the… And those were… And he didn’t just reach up in the air and say, “I’ve got some terms.” The… Lincoln very specifically… He met with Lincoln shortly before Appomattox. Sherman was there. One top naval officer was there, Grant and Lincoln, and Lincoln said, “This is what I want. This is the kind of peace I want.” “The whole point of this war is to put the nation back together, and a good start on that is…” I mean, if it’s just a rebellion, what do you do with traitors and rebels? You hang them.
Gary Gallagher
You don’t bring them back. You don’t treat them as prisoners of war, which the United States did during this. You, he… But the goal is to put the nation back together, and Lincoln said, “This is a good start. Make them sign a parole. Make them accept the end of slavery and the fact that they’re back in the Union. If they do that, they get to go home and resume their lives.” Hadn’t been decided yet whether they’ll get to vote, but let them go home. Don’t imprison them. Don’t execute them. Don’t execute their leaders. That’s the decision.
You don’t bring them back. You don’t treat them as prisoners of war, which the United States did during this. You, he… But the goal is to put the nation back together, and Lincoln said, “This is a good start. Make them sign a parole. Make them accept the end of slavery and the fact that they’re back in the Union. If they do that, they get to go home and resume their lives.” Hadn’t been decided yet whether they’ll get to vote, but let them go home. Don’t imprison them. Don’t execute them. Don’t execute their leaders. That’s the decision.
Lex Fridman
From the perspective of the Union, what do you think about that kind of forgiveness?
From the perspective of the Union, what do you think about that kind of forgiveness?
Gary Gallagher
Well, I think that it was sort of a nod toward the direction of forgiveness, but I don’t think the real… I don’t think real forgiveness was there. It was still extremely hard feelings on both sides, and Lincoln’s assassination upped the ante on that, especially for a while in the United States. The forgiveness… Two things in terms of the aftermath of the war, two words that often come into play are reunion and reconciliation. Those are two other things that are often conflated. Reunion is literally putting the nation back together. That happened. Reconcile, true reconciliation, that’s much, much, much tougher, and that didn’t come anytime soon on the part of millions of people on both sides, I think.
Well, I think that it was sort of a nod toward the direction of forgiveness, but I don’t think the real… I don’t think real forgiveness was there. It was still extremely hard feelings on both sides, and Lincoln’s assassination upped the ante on that, especially for a while in the United States. The forgiveness… Two things in terms of the aftermath of the war, two words that often come into play are reunion and reconciliation. Those are two other things that are often conflated. Reunion is literally putting the nation back together. That happened. Reconcile, true reconciliation, that’s much, much, much tougher, and that didn’t come anytime soon on the part of millions of people on both sides, I think.
Lex Fridman
And we’ll probably maybe talk about in multiple ways how maybe that is something that’s still going on.
And we’ll probably maybe talk about in multiple ways how maybe that is something that’s still going on.
Gary Gallagher
Oh, there are echoes of the Civil War all over the place. It’s not still being fought, but you can see resonances of the Civil War because it’s such a profoundly disruptive event that gets right at the heart of what the republic means. I mean, and so it’s… There’s nothing else like it in US history, and it’s a great moment of truth, the residual aftermath and effects of which lingered for decades and are still present in some ways, I think.
Oh, there are echoes of the Civil War all over the place. It’s not still being fought, but you can see resonances of the Civil War because it’s such a profoundly disruptive event that gets right at the heart of what the republic means. I mean, and so it’s… There’s nothing else like it in US history, and it’s a great moment of truth, the residual aftermath and effects of which lingered for decades and are still present in some ways, I think.
Lex Fridman
So in 1859, most Americans were just living their life. Did they have a sense what was on the horizon?
So in 1859, most Americans were just living their life. Did they have a sense what was on the horizon?
Gary Gallagher
It’s what I like to call the Appomattox Syndrome, which starts at the end of the story and says, “Of course there was gonna be a war because the war was inevitable, and of course the United States was gonna win and slavery was gonna be destroyed,” because they were. So let’s find out how we got right here. But no, most people didn’t wake up in Iowa in 1857 and their first thought was, “Boy, I hate the South.” “Those slaveholders, they’re really…” No. People got on with their quotidian lives and they got to the farm or they went to their business and they did… They weren’t… Nobody knew that they were living in the antebellum era, and that those great antebellum years were about to come to an end.
It’s what I like to call the Appomattox Syndrome, which starts at the end of the story and says, “Of course there was gonna be a war because the war was inevitable, and of course the United States was gonna win and slavery was gonna be destroyed,” because they were. So let’s find out how we got right here. But no, most people didn’t wake up in Iowa in 1857 and their first thought was, “Boy, I hate the South.” “Those slaveholders, they’re really…” No. People got on with their quotidian lives and they got to the farm or they went to their business and they did… They weren’t… Nobody knew that they were living in the antebellum era, and that those great antebellum years were about to come to an end.
Gary Gallagher
They… That is something that it’s hard to get people… To just put it out of your mind that that’s all anybody is thinking about. They’re thinking, “There’s a lot of other stuff going on.”
They… That is something that it’s hard to get people… To just put it out of your mind that that’s all anybody is thinking about. They’re thinking, “There’s a lot of other stuff going on.”
Gary Gallagher
There’s a big gold rush in Colorado. More people go to Colorado than went to California for a while. There is… And you have these tremendous changes coming about, technological changes of the 1850s where you have the real expansion of railroads, the real expansion of the telegraph. There’s a shrinking of time and space that’s remarkable for people at the time. It seemed dizzying to them at the time. There are a lot of things to think about other than how much I hate Yankees if I’m in South Carolina, or I hate slaveholders if I live in New Hampshire. But periodically, there are these events that pop up that refocus on the differences between the sections. And you have the Kansas-Nebraska Act. You have Dred Scott.
There’s a big gold rush in Colorado. More people go to Colorado than went to California for a while. There is… And you have these tremendous changes coming about, technological changes of the 1850s where you have the real expansion of railroads, the real expansion of the telegraph. There’s a shrinking of time and space that’s remarkable for people at the time. It seemed dizzying to them at the time. There are a lot of things to think about other than how much I hate Yankees if I’m in South Carolina, or I hate slaveholders if I live in New Hampshire. But periodically, there are these events that pop up that refocus on the differences between the sections. And you have the Kansas-Nebraska Act. You have Dred Scott.
Gary Gallagher
You have the caning of Charles Sumner on the floor of the Senate. You have Uncle Tom’s Cabin earlier in the decade in 18– and what… And the impact that that had on attitudes towards slavery. Doesn’t create a bunch of abolitionists, but it creates a bunch of people who rethink their thoughts about slavery.
You have the caning of Charles Sumner on the floor of the Senate. You have Uncle Tom’s Cabin earlier in the decade in 18– and what… And the impact that that had on attitudes towards slavery. Doesn’t create a bunch of abolitionists, but it creates a bunch of people who rethink their thoughts about slavery.
Lex Fridman
Sorry to ask the big question about history. But, you know, we’re living today, 2026, and there’s the sense that every day you wake up, the possibilities before us are endless, for the good, for the bad, for the truly destructive. There’s an eerie sense that the possibility of a world war in different kinds of ways, whether it’s sparked in the Middle East or sparked in China and Taiwan, or sparked in Ukraine-Russia, or elsewhere totally surprising in the world, may be related to nuclear weapons or not. There’s a sense that everything is possible. And of course, when history is written about the 21st century, it will all be obvious.
Sorry to ask the big question about history. But, you know, we’re living today, 2026, and there’s the sense that every day you wake up, the possibilities before us are endless, for the good, for the bad, for the truly destructive. There’s an eerie sense that the possibility of a world war in different kinds of ways, whether it’s sparked in the Middle East or sparked in China and Taiwan, or sparked in Ukraine-Russia, or elsewhere totally surprising in the world, may be related to nuclear weapons or not. There’s a sense that everything is possible. And of course, when history is written about the 21st century, it will all be obvious.
Gary Gallagher
It’s always obvious in retrospect. That’s right.
It’s always obvious in retrospect. That’s right.
Lex Fridman
What can we learn about… from the Civil War about how history unfolds itself, I suppose, for the modern day?
What can we learn about… from the Civil War about how history unfolds itself, I suppose, for the modern day?
Gary Gallagher
Well, I think that the potential threats now are different from the potential threats in the mid-19th century. The nuclear dimension, some kind of really brutal use of pathogens. I mean, there are lots of things that could happen now that couldn’t happen then, at least not because humans were making them happen. But I mean, to me, one of the things to take away from the Civil War is really the resiliency of this republic, which I still think it’s a resilient republic. We’re living in a sort of wacky time.
Well, I think that the potential threats now are different from the potential threats in the mid-19th century. The nuclear dimension, some kind of really brutal use of pathogens. I mean, there are lots of things that could happen now that couldn’t happen then, at least not because humans were making them happen. But I mean, to me, one of the things to take away from the Civil War is really the resiliency of this republic, which I still think it’s a resilient republic. We’re living in a sort of wacky time.
Gary Gallagher
But I believe that the… I think that… I have a great faith in the resiliency of the nation, I really do, of the United States. I think it’s been through much tougher times than we’re in now, and I think that we will weather this, although everybody will have some scar tissue. There might even come a time when our leadership class actually leads, which would be interesting. And I’m saying, you know, I’m talking about both sides of the fence here. But it is… That, to me, this is the supreme test of a republic that had been put in place in the late 18th century. Can that late 18th century republic adjust, including adjusting to deal with the profoundly disruptive issue of slavery, in a way that allows it to go forward?
But I believe that the… I think that… I have a great faith in the resiliency of the nation, I really do, of the United States. I think it’s been through much tougher times than we’re in now, and I think that we will weather this, although everybody will have some scar tissue. There might even come a time when our leadership class actually leads, which would be interesting. And I’m saying, you know, I’m talking about both sides of the fence here. But it is… That, to me, this is the supreme test of a republic that had been put in place in the late 18th century. Can that late 18th century republic adjust, including adjusting to deal with the profoundly disruptive issue of slavery, in a way that allows it to go forward?
Gary Gallagher
And the answer is yes. In a war that brings slaughter on an unimaginable scale and brings social disruption in the former slave-holding states on an unimaginable… It just couldn’t be more profoundly disruptive if you’re a Confederate. There’s not slavery anymore, and we lost the war, and a third of our military-age white men are dead. Wow, that’s a bad four years for our team. What’s gonna happen here? The Republic emerged from that and worked it out, and I think it is… It goes back to me, the intelligence of the founding generation that put in place documents that actually allowed the Republic to deal with something like this.
And the answer is yes. In a war that brings slaughter on an unimaginable scale and brings social disruption in the former slave-holding states on an unimaginable… It just couldn’t be more profoundly disruptive if you’re a Confederate. There’s not slavery anymore, and we lost the war, and a third of our military-age white men are dead. Wow, that’s a bad four years for our team. What’s gonna happen here? The Republic emerged from that and worked it out, and I think it is… It goes back to me, the intelligence of the founding generation that put in place documents that actually allowed the Republic to deal with something like this.
Gary Gallagher
And it’s sort of a miracle to me that from a nation that was as prejudiced, racially prejudiced as the United States was, you get the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments out of this. It’s just kind of mind-boggling that that happens.
And it’s sort of a miracle to me that from a nation that was as prejudiced, racially prejudiced as the United States was, you get the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments out of this. It’s just kind of mind-boggling that that happens.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think resilience and adaptive innovation often looks like chaos in the moment.
Yeah, I think resilience and adaptive innovation often looks like chaos in the moment.
Gary Gallagher
It absolutely does. It absolutely does. But then when you really get to the end of that story, you look, and there you are, and oh, it’s okay, the nation is still intact. And the 13th Amendment is in place. Wow, we didn’t think- … that was gonna happen in 1861- when secession started. I mean, it really… One, another lesson is that you cannot control what a great military event can set loose.
It absolutely does. It absolutely does. But then when you really get to the end of that story, you look, and there you are, and oh, it’s okay, the nation is still intact. And the 13th Amendment is in place. Wow, we didn’t think- … that was gonna happen in 1861- when secession started. I mean, it really… One, another lesson is that you cannot control what a great military event can set loose.
Gary Gallagher
I mean, no, things that nobody imagined would happen, including expansion of central power in ways that no one would have imagined. You don’t get to ratchet that back and say, “Well, that’ll never happen again.” No, you know what? It happened, and maybe it will happen again because we’ve seen it happen. Nobody imagined that. The federal budget in 1860 was $63 million. That was the entire federal budget. The federal budget in 1865 was $1.2 billion, and if you throw in the Confederate side of that, it gets you over $2 billion, which means federal expenditures in 1860 would’ve lasted about 11 days in 1865. Nobody foresaw that. Absolutely nobody foresaw that. And education legislation that would create the great land grant colleges and universities and it’s… The war, the war brought a lot
I mean, no, things that nobody imagined would happen, including expansion of central power in ways that no one would have imagined. You don’t get to ratchet that back and say, “Well, that’ll never happen again.” No, you know what? It happened, and maybe it will happen again because we’ve seen it happen. Nobody imagined that. The federal budget in 1860 was $63 million. That was the entire federal budget. The federal budget in 1865 was $1.2 billion, and if you throw in the Confederate side of that, it gets you over $2 billion, which means federal expenditures in 1860 would’ve lasted about 11 days in 1865. Nobody foresaw that. Absolutely nobody foresaw that. And education legislation that would create the great land grant colleges and universities and it’s… The war, the war brought a lot
Lex Fridman
And I think most of the things that has happened through the hard periods of our country’s history, nobody could have really foreseen, and then we somehow figure it out, and that gives me a lot of hope.
And I think most of the things that has happened through the hard periods of our country’s history, nobody could have really foreseen, and then we somehow figure it out, and that gives me a lot of hope.
Gary Gallagher
We-
We-
Lex Fridman
That this kinda like extreme division, the arguments, the people basically speaking in the harshest of ways against each other, that is like the engine of brainstorming and figuring problems out that in the long arc of history create progress. But in the short term, it feels like a dumpster fire.
That this kinda like extreme division, the arguments, the people basically speaking in the harshest of ways against each other, that is like the engine of brainstorming and figuring problems out that in the long arc of history create progress. But in the short term, it feels like a dumpster fire.
Gary Gallagher
It does. And to me, the arc of US history has been, and Lincoln talked about this too, it’s an expansion of freedoms and liberties. That’s the long arc, with very problematical places along the way. But again, the documents allow for that, and the process allows for that, and I think that’s one of the remarkable things about Philadelphia in the summer of 1787. I mean, those guys, a lot of whom own slaves, put together something that’s proved to be resilient and adaptable and changeable, and it has evolved in a way that is in the right direction, although there are always problems.
It does. And to me, the arc of US history has been, and Lincoln talked about this too, it’s an expansion of freedoms and liberties. That’s the long arc, with very problematical places along the way. But again, the documents allow for that, and the process allows for that, and I think that’s one of the remarkable things about Philadelphia in the summer of 1787. I mean, those guys, a lot of whom own slaves, put together something that’s proved to be resilient and adaptable and changeable, and it has evolved in a way that is in the right direction, although there are always problems.
Lex Fridman
I love this country. I will never stop saying how much I love this country. It’s an incredible experiment. I’m we’re this year celebrating 250th birthday. I can’t wait for the next 250 years. This is such a fascinating study of human civilization.
I love this country. I will never stop saying how much I love this country. It’s an incredible experiment. I’m we’re this year celebrating 250th birthday. I can’t wait for the next 250 years. This is such a fascinating study of human civilization.
Gary Gallagher
And it is complicated. What we want now is a sort of cartoon version of what we Americans, as you watch popular culture, we want a 30-second view of whatever. Well, who should I like? Who are the good guys? Who are the bad guys? I want a 30-second version of the Civil War. What do I… History is not that way.
And it is complicated. What we want now is a sort of cartoon version of what we Americans, as you watch popular culture, we want a 30-second view of whatever. Well, who should I like? Who are the good guys? Who are the bad guys? I want a 30-second version of the Civil War. What do I… History is not that way.
Gary Gallagher
I’ve spent my whole life studying history, and maybe the main thing I’ve learned is however complicated I thought something was when I really started to explore it, it’s more complicated than I thought it was. People aren’t simple. They’re complicated. And you have to at least appreciate, you don’t have to embrace the complexity. I guess you can’t make people do that, but you have to at least concede that things are… they’re just… There’s not a 20-second version of anything in the past. The past is complicated, ’cause humanoids are involved in it. They’re complicated.
I’ve spent my whole life studying history, and maybe the main thing I’ve learned is however complicated I thought something was when I really started to explore it, it’s more complicated than I thought it was. People aren’t simple. They’re complicated. And you have to at least appreciate, you don’t have to embrace the complexity. I guess you can’t make people do that, but you have to at least concede that things are… they’re just… There’s not a 20-second version of anything in the past. The past is complicated, ’cause humanoids are involved in it. They’re complicated.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, the… when you look at the system as a whole. But as individual humans, we like to do the, the black and white thing where-
Yeah, the… when you look at the system as a whole. But as individual humans, we like to do the, the black and white thing where-
Gary Gallagher
Of course.
Of course.
Lex Fridman
… we just see the good, everything as good and evil, and then we bicker.
… we just see the good, everything as good and evil, and then we bicker.
Gary Gallagher
‘Cause it’s easier.
‘Cause it’s easier.
Lex Fridman
And then we get together at Thanksgiving dinner, and we yell at each other, and then people lose their shit, and they stop talking to each other for a year, and then they make up and all this ’cause this is just how humans interact with each other. And but as a system, especially with the increasing levels of freedom, with the freedoms of speech and be able to speak out about your feelings, even when they’re intense feelings, that somehow works as a system.
And then we get together at Thanksgiving dinner, and we yell at each other, and then people lose their shit, and they stop talking to each other for a year, and then they make up and all this ’cause this is just how humans interact with each other. And but as a system, especially with the increasing levels of freedom, with the freedoms of speech and be able to speak out about your feelings, even when they’re intense feelings, that somehow works as a system.
Gary Gallagher
And it’s very messy.
And it’s very messy.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Gary Gallagher
The more freedom, the messier it is. Really, the messier it is.
The more freedom, the messier it is. Really, the messier it is.
Lex Fridman
And your job as a historian is a difficult job, and as you said, because the more you learn, the more you come to understand, the more complicated the picture appears.
And your job as a historian is a difficult job, and as you said, because the more you learn, the more you come to understand, the more complicated the picture appears.
Gary Gallagher
Yep, and the more you learn, the more you learn that you don’t know as much as you thought you did.
Yep, and the more you learn, the more you learn that you don’t know as much as you thought you did.
Lex Fridman
So some humility will take you a long way.
So some humility will take you a long way.
Gary Gallagher
Yes, you want more of Grant than McClellan in that, on that humility score. Grant would score high on humility. McClellan, every day, every day the first thought was, “What about me?” “Who is gonna not appreciate how wonderful I am today?” thought George B. McClellan. That’s the thought that nagged at him. “Somebody might not know how great I am.” That’s an aside.
Yes, you want more of Grant than McClellan in that, on that humility score. Grant would score high on humility. McClellan, every day, every day the first thought was, “What about me?” “Who is gonna not appreciate how wonderful I am today?” thought George B. McClellan. That’s the thought that nagged at him. “Somebody might not know how great I am.” That’s an aside.
Lex Fridman
Reminds me of somebody. But anyway. Quick ten-second shout-out to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to my conversation with Gary Gallagher.
Reminds me of somebody. But anyway. Quick ten-second shout-out to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to my conversation with Gary Gallagher.
How the Confederate Army could’ve won
Lex Fridman
Okay, let’s at the start, first shots fired at Fort Sumter, as you mentioned, and this thing starts brewing and escalating towards a full-on war. What are the different advantages of each side from a military perspective?
Okay, let’s at the start, first shots fired at Fort Sumter, as you mentioned, and this thing starts brewing and escalating towards a full-on war. What are the different advantages of each side from a military perspective?
Gary Gallagher
Here is one of the great misconceptions about the Civil War. Among the people who know anything about it, which in the US is a very small percentage, but if they know anything, they know United States’ victory was inevitable. Because the United States had 22 million people. The Confederacy had five and a half million white people- … and three and a half million enslaved people. The United States’ economy was infinitely more powerful than the Confederate economy. The United States had the United States Army. The United States had the United States Navy.
Here is one of the great misconceptions about the Civil War. Among the people who know anything about it, which in the US is a very small percentage, but if they know anything, they know United States’ victory was inevitable. Because the United States had 22 million people. The Confederacy had five and a half million white people- … and three and a half million enslaved people. The United States’ economy was infinitely more powerful than the Confederate economy. The United States had the United States Army. The United States had the United States Navy.
Gary Gallagher
Really, who’s gonna win this war? The US, it’s inevitable, next question. It’s not true at all. The US did have those advantages, but the Confederacy had compensating advantages. And one of those advantages was it had a much lower bar to cross for success. It didn’t have to invade the United States, didn’t have to capture Washington. It didn’t have to project its military power into New England. All it had to do was convince a majority of the civilian population of the loyal states that it wasn’t worth the cost to make these rebel states come back into the Union. These are two democratic republics at war, and in the end, the civilian sector decides. Somebody my age can… We have the perfect example, Vietnam. The United States was not defeated militarily in Vietnam, and it didn’t matter.
Really, who’s gonna win this war? The US, it’s inevitable, next question. It’s not true at all. The US did have those advantages, but the Confederacy had compensating advantages. And one of those advantages was it had a much lower bar to cross for success. It didn’t have to invade the United States, didn’t have to capture Washington. It didn’t have to project its military power into New England. All it had to do was convince a majority of the civilian population of the loyal states that it wasn’t worth the cost to make these rebel states come back into the Union. These are two democratic republics at war, and in the end, the civilian sector decides. Somebody my age can… We have the perfect example, Vietnam. The United States was not defeated militarily in Vietnam, and it didn’t matter.
Gary Gallagher
‘Cause when the people said, “We’re not gonna support this war anymore,” the war’s gonna come to an end. The smart people in the Confederacy understood this. They understood it at the time. Lee understood it. Jefferson Davis understood it. You had key people at the time saying, “There’s no way that a nation as large as ours and as populous as, a population as large as ours has ever been subjected in a war like this. A tie is as good as a win for the Confederacy.” And they came very close to that in the summer of 1864. The other thing is the sheer size of the Confederacy is a huge advantage to them. It’s huge, with a very poor transportation and communication infrastructure in many ways. And to move a large army deep into the Confederacy is a huge logistical problem.
‘Cause when the people said, “We’re not gonna support this war anymore,” the war’s gonna come to an end. The smart people in the Confederacy understood this. They understood it at the time. Lee understood it. Jefferson Davis understood it. You had key people at the time saying, “There’s no way that a nation as large as ours and as populous as, a population as large as ours has ever been subjected in a war like this. A tie is as good as a win for the Confederacy.” And they came very close to that in the summer of 1864. The other thing is the sheer size of the Confederacy is a huge advantage to them. It’s huge, with a very poor transportation and communication infrastructure in many ways. And to move a large army deep into the Confederacy is a huge logistical problem.
Gary Gallagher
The same thing had happened to the British both during the American Revolution and the War of 1812. They confront this… The Confederacy’s as big as all of Western Europe. That’s a problem. It’s also a problem that the Confederates are fighting, literally fighting to defend their homes. That’s always, almost always a stronger factor than trying to impose your will on somebody else. All of these factors help the Confederacy. The US did have an army. The army had 15,000 men in it in 1860, 15,000. The Navy had fewer than 50 vessels, most of them on overseas stations. There were exactly three vessels available to blockade the Confederacy at the beginning of the war. The Confederate coastline’s 3,600 miles long. Probably not gonna be able to shut down a lot there.
The same thing had happened to the British both during the American Revolution and the War of 1812. They confront this… The Confederacy’s as big as all of Western Europe. That’s a problem. It’s also a problem that the Confederates are fighting, literally fighting to defend their homes. That’s always, almost always a stronger factor than trying to impose your will on somebody else. All of these factors help the Confederacy. The US did have an army. The army had 15,000 men in it in 1860, 15,000. The Navy had fewer than 50 vessels, most of them on overseas stations. There were exactly three vessels available to blockade the Confederacy at the beginning of the war. The Confederate coastline’s 3,600 miles long. Probably not gonna be able to shut down a lot there.
Gary Gallagher
So the point is that there are factors that help both sides. To me, the conditions for victory are the most important factor that favors the Confederacy. We just have to make it painful enough to the United States that they’re gonna say, “Let them go. We never liked South Carolina anyway. Just let them go. We’re not… It’s not worth it. It’s killing too many of our boys. It’s costing too much money, and we don’t have to worry about slavery in the territories if they’re gone, ’cause they’ll be gone. And our territories will be free of slavery.”
So the point is that there are factors that help both sides. To me, the conditions for victory are the most important factor that favors the Confederacy. We just have to make it painful enough to the United States that they’re gonna say, “Let them go. We never liked South Carolina anyway. Just let them go. We’re not… It’s not worth it. It’s killing too many of our boys. It’s costing too much money, and we don’t have to worry about slavery in the territories if they’re gone, ’cause they’ll be gone. And our territories will be free of slavery.”
Lex Fridman
So again, the Union is the invading force.
So again, the Union is the invading force.
Gary Gallagher
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Geography comes into play, as you mentioned.
Geography comes into play, as you mentioned.
Gary Gallagher
Immediately, yes.
Immediately, yes.
Lex Fridman
Vast land. And so in some sense, it’s a miracle that the war lasted as long as it did, and then there was as much motivation-
Vast land. And so in some sense, it’s a miracle that the war lasted as long as it did, and then there was as much motivation-
Gary Gallagher
Yes, that they stuck to it…
Yes, that they stuck to it…
Lex Fridman
… because again, victory for the Confederacy was stop the war.
… because again, victory for the Confederacy was stop the war.
Gary Gallagher
Stop the war. Neither side has an advantage in terms of its leadership. The generals all come… You often used to read frequently Confederates had better generals than the… And, but this is the first war where West- where West Pointers are in charge. They were subalterns in Mexico. The West Point is the United States Military Academy where the professional officer corps gets its training. It was established under Jefferson. It’s the premier engineering school in the United States. And I mean, West Point-trained engineers are very, very prominent when they get out of the army and even when they’re in the army. But by the time of the Civil War, it is West Pointers who were lieutenants and captains in the war with Mexico are now gonna be the people in charge.
Stop the war. Neither side has an advantage in terms of its leadership. The generals all come… You often used to read frequently Confederates had better generals than the… And, but this is the first war where West- where West Pointers are in charge. They were subalterns in Mexico. The West Point is the United States Military Academy where the professional officer corps gets its training. It was established under Jefferson. It’s the premier engineering school in the United States. And I mean, West Point-trained engineers are very, very prominent when they get out of the army and even when they’re in the army. But by the time of the Civil War, it is West Pointers who were lieutenants and captains in the war with Mexico are now gonna be the people in charge.
Gary Gallagher
Almost every army commander, almost every corps commander, which is the next level, are West Point graduates. They took the same classes from the same professors, read the same textbooks, served under either Winfield Scott or Zachary Taylor in Mexico. They bring the same background and body of doctrine and training to the table. It would’ve been weird if one side or the other had an inherent advantage in leadership. The one place where the US ends up with an advantage is that over the course of the war, it found, in my view, four men who could command armies effectively: Grant, Sherman, Philip Henry Sheridan, and George H. Thomas. The Confederacy only ever found one, and that’s Lee. And they had more than one army, so that’s a problem.
Almost every army commander, almost every corps commander, which is the next level, are West Point graduates. They took the same classes from the same professors, read the same textbooks, served under either Winfield Scott or Zachary Taylor in Mexico. They bring the same background and body of doctrine and training to the table. It would’ve been weird if one side or the other had an inherent advantage in leadership. The one place where the US ends up with an advantage is that over the course of the war, it found, in my view, four men who could command armies effectively: Grant, Sherman, Philip Henry Sheridan, and George H. Thomas. The Confederacy only ever found one, and that’s Lee. And they had more than one army, so that’s a problem.
Gary Gallagher
If you have more than one army but only one really good army commander, that puts you at a disadvantage.
If you have more than one army but only one really good army commander, that puts you at a disadvantage.
Lex Fridman
In what ways were the two sides balanced militarily equal militarily? So the, the passion, like we mentioned, of the, of the fighting force, the soldiers, the dedication to the fighting.
In what ways were the two sides balanced militarily equal militarily? So the, the passion, like we mentioned, of the, of the fighting force, the soldiers, the dedication to the fighting.
Gary Gallagher
Both brought the same notions of how to fight a war to the table because the officer corps had been, on both sides, had been trained in, in the same way. Neither side has a real advantage in terms of technology. Both sides use the railroad. Both sides use the telegraph. The United States could have used repeating weapons but decided not to. The Confederacy didn’t have the industrial capacity to produce. So the war is fought by infantrymen, for the most part, carrying muzzle-loading single-shot muskets, rifle muskets. That’s the weapon that inflicts 85 to 90% of the casualties-
Both brought the same notions of how to fight a war to the table because the officer corps had been, on both sides, had been trained in, in the same way. Neither side has a real advantage in terms of technology. Both sides use the railroad. Both sides use the telegraph. The United States could have used repeating weapons but decided not to. The Confederacy didn’t have the industrial capacity to produce. So the war is fought by infantrymen, for the most part, carrying muzzle-loading single-shot muskets, rifle muskets. That’s the weapon that inflicts 85 to 90% of the casualties-
Gary Gallagher
… in the Civil War, and they both have exactly the same thing. And they have the same kinds of artillery pieces. The United States Navy’s much bigger, but it’s… And the Navy is important, but armies really decide the war, and the armies are… They’re organized exactly the same way. They get officers the same way. They’re very similar.
… in the Civil War, and they both have exactly the same thing. And they have the same kinds of artillery pieces. The United States Navy’s much bigger, but it’s… And the Navy is important, but armies really decide the war, and the armies are… They’re organized exactly the same way. They get officers the same way. They’re very similar.
Lex Fridman
So what was the actual fighting like? Like you mentioned, most of it was with muskets. What was the experience of it like?
So what was the actual fighting like? Like you mentioned, most of it was with muskets. What was the experience of it like?
Gary Gallagher
It’s linear formations, shoulder-to-shoulder kinds of formations that would allow you to maintain unit integrity on a battlefield, which is one reason casualties were high. They’d line up and fight each other. As the war went on, they resorted more and more. One of the developments was the field entrenchments became very common by 1864. And both armies, if they would stop for the night, they would entrench. They’d throw up field works-
It’s linear formations, shoulder-to-shoulder kinds of formations that would allow you to maintain unit integrity on a battlefield, which is one reason casualties were high. They’d line up and fight each other. As the war went on, they resorted more and more. One of the developments was the field entrenchments became very common by 1864. And both armies, if they would stop for the night, they would entrench. They’d throw up field works-
Gary Gallagher
… which gave the defenders a much greater power vis-a-vis the attacking force. They came to decide that it– you needed about a three-to-one advantage in numbers to have a successful attack once field entrenchments were in place. But it is… It’s a, it’s an infantryman’s war overwhelmingly, and the infantryman’s experience on both sides. The United States side was a little better supplied. Union soldiers ate a little better for the most part. They got regular issues of clothing a little more regularly than the Confederates did. Their uniforms all kinda looked the same. The Confederates would have had a more motley look. But the Confederates didn’t lose any battles because they didn’t have enough shoes, and they didn’t lose any battles ’cause they didn’t have enough powder.
… which gave the defenders a much greater power vis-a-vis the attacking force. They came to decide that it– you needed about a three-to-one advantage in numbers to have a successful attack once field entrenchments were in place. But it is… It’s a, it’s an infantryman’s war overwhelmingly, and the infantryman’s experience on both sides. The United States side was a little better supplied. Union soldiers ate a little better for the most part. They got regular issues of clothing a little more regularly than the Confederates did. Their uniforms all kinda looked the same. The Confederates would have had a more motley look. But the Confederates didn’t lose any battles because they didn’t have enough shoes, and they didn’t lose any battles ’cause they didn’t have enough powder.
Gary Gallagher
They never had a problem with that. So it’s a war where each side looks like the other side in terms of what the armies actually… If we had wandered through the armies and, or watched them in battle, they would have looked the same to us.
They never had a problem with that. So it’s a war where each side looks like the other side in terms of what the armies actually… If we had wandered through the armies and, or watched them in battle, they would have looked the same to us.
Lex Fridman
But it wasn’t just about bullets. There was also dysentery and disease.
But it wasn’t just about bullets. There was also dysentery and disease.
Gary Gallagher
Two out of every three soldiers who died, died of disease. It depends on what unit you’re in. If you’re in the Irish Brigade, God love them. You know, just point us towards something and let us indulge in self-immolation, for God’s sake. The Irish Brigade had the reverse. They had two men who died from battle wounds for every man who died from disease. But overall, it’s one man died from battle wounds and two died from disease. Overall casualties, killed, wounded, prisoners of war, about a million and a half- … casualties in the Civil War.
Two out of every three soldiers who died, died of disease. It depends on what unit you’re in. If you’re in the Irish Brigade, God love them. You know, just point us towards something and let us indulge in self-immolation, for God’s sake. The Irish Brigade had the reverse. They had two men who died from battle wounds for every man who died from disease. But overall, it’s one man died from battle wounds and two died from disease. Overall casualties, killed, wounded, prisoners of war, about a million and a half- … casualties in the Civil War.
Lex Fridman
You know, there’s this idea that a big part of the American spirit is the Scots-Irish spirit, the fighting spirit. You think there’s some truth to that?
You know, there’s this idea that a big part of the American spirit is the Scots-Irish spirit, the fighting spirit. You think there’s some truth to that?
Gary Gallagher
Well, the songs are Irish songs that both sides sing with different words, and I mean, there are a lot of Irish soldiers in the Union Army. But in the entire military-age white population of the loyal states in 1860, just about a third were born somewhere other than the United States. And they made up about a quarter of all the soldiers. So they’re actually underrepresented in the United States Army. Far lower percentage of foreign-born soldiers in the Confederate Army, but there they’re a little bit overrepresented. So there are lots of foreign-born soldiers in the army. The largest group are not Irish. They’re the second largest group. The largest group are Germans on the US side. The Irish are second, and then you’d go way down the line for yet others.
Well, the songs are Irish songs that both sides sing with different words, and I mean, there are a lot of Irish soldiers in the Union Army. But in the entire military-age white population of the loyal states in 1860, just about a third were born somewhere other than the United States. And they made up about a quarter of all the soldiers. So they’re actually underrepresented in the United States Army. Far lower percentage of foreign-born soldiers in the Confederate Army, but there they’re a little bit overrepresented. So there are lots of foreign-born soldiers in the army. The largest group are not Irish. They’re the second largest group. The largest group are Germans on the US side. The Irish are second, and then you’d go way down the line for yet others.
Lex Fridman
So we talked pretty thoroughly about slavery. Can we talk about immigration? What was the view at the time of immigrants?
So we talked pretty thoroughly about slavery. Can we talk about immigration? What was the view at the time of immigrants?
Gary Gallagher
Well, I think you know the answer to that. We need to have all that stuff done, but we don’t especially like the people doing it. That’s basically the… Well, I mean, the-
Well, I think you know the answer to that. We need to have all that stuff done, but we don’t especially like the people doing it. That’s basically the… Well, I mean, the-
Lex Fridman
Oh, America
Oh, America
Gary Gallagher
… the anti-Irish, and a lot of it is bound up with anti-Catholic sentiment. ‘Cause the Irish are changing the nature of the country. The country’s a Protestant, British country, and here come all these Irishmen. And especially in the ’40s and ’50s, the– My Gallaghers came in the late ’50s. They are changing the nature, and they take over. Look at them. They don’t know their place. They’re-
… the anti-Irish, and a lot of it is bound up with anti-Catholic sentiment. ‘Cause the Irish are changing the nature of the country. The country’s a Protestant, British country, and here come all these Irishmen. And especially in the ’40s and ’50s, the– My Gallaghers came in the late ’50s. They are changing the nature, and they take over. Look at them. They don’t know their place. They’re-
Lex Fridman
Right
Right
Gary Gallagher
… pretty soon they’re taking over cities, and they all cheat when they vote. We know that. You can buy an Irish vote for one drink.
… pretty soon they’re taking over cities, and they all cheat when they vote. We know that. You can buy an Irish vote for one drink.
Lex Fridman
This all sounds familiar, right?
This all sounds familiar, right?
Gary Gallagher
The cartoons were brutal on depicting African American characters, but they also depicted the Irish as sort of simian characters, often with a jug of whiskey in one hand. I mean, it’s very… There’s profound prejudice. And prejudice against the Germans, whom they called the Dutch. That was what the soldiers would call the German regiments, Dutch regiments. And yeah, there’s a lot of ethnic prejudice.
The cartoons were brutal on depicting African American characters, but they also depicted the Irish as sort of simian characters, often with a jug of whiskey in one hand. I mean, it’s very… There’s profound prejudice. And prejudice against the Germans, whom they called the Dutch. That was what the soldiers would call the German regiments, Dutch regiments. And yeah, there’s a lot of ethnic prejudice.
Lex Fridman
So to mention, you mentioned Protestants, so both sides were primarily Protestant Christians.
So to mention, you mentioned Protestants, so both sides were primarily Protestant Christians.
Gary Gallagher
Overwhelmingly.
Overwhelmingly.
Lex Fridman
At that time, it was a very religious country.
At that time, it was a very religious country.
Gary Gallagher
Yes, yes.
Yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
So the religious sentiment was pretty strong.
So the religious sentiment was pretty strong.
Gary Gallagher
Units had chaplains, and there were Catholic priests with Catholic units. Yes, a very big presence.
Units had chaplains, and there were Catholic priests with Catholic units. Yes, a very big presence.
Lex Fridman
Was Christianity used to justify-
Was Christianity used to justify-
Gary Gallagher
Of course it was. Both sides used it, yes.
Of course it was. Both sides used it, yes.
Lex Fridman
So it’s-
So it’s-
Gary Gallagher
I don’t mean to jump on your question, but yes, they did.
I don’t mean to jump on your question, but yes, they did.
Lex Fridman
I mean, how was it used to justify fighting for a nation?
I mean, how was it used to justify fighting for a nation?
Gary Gallagher
Yeah, there’s a lot of fighting in the Bible, a lot of people killing other people in the Bi- As long as you’re doing it for the right reasons-
Yeah, there’s a lot of fighting in the Bible, a lot of people killing other people in the Bi- As long as you’re doing it for the right reasons-
Gary Gallagher
… you can… And you could use it different ways. I mean, you can deal with setbacks by saying, “Well, God tests us. We’re being tested.” What do you do when God tests you? You don’t give up when God tests you. You try harder when God tests you. The very top leaders… This is interesting. The top leaders on the Confederate side, the most famous ones, Lee, Stonewall Jackson, Jeb Stuart, they were much more overtly religious than people like Grant, Sherman, Philip Sheridan. I mean, much, much more. Lee is an Episcopalian. Jackson was a Presbyterian. But they talked– I mean, their official reports, their correspondence, it’s filled with allusions to religion much more than Grant’s or Sherman’s.
… you can… And you could use it different ways. I mean, you can deal with setbacks by saying, “Well, God tests us. We’re being tested.” What do you do when God tests you? You don’t give up when God tests you. You try harder when God tests you. The very top leaders… This is interesting. The top leaders on the Confederate side, the most famous ones, Lee, Stonewall Jackson, Jeb Stuart, they were much more overtly religious than people like Grant, Sherman, Philip Sheridan. I mean, much, much more. Lee is an Episcopalian. Jackson was a Presbyterian. But they talked– I mean, their official reports, their correspondence, it’s filled with allusions to religion much more than Grant’s or Sherman’s.
Lex Fridman
What about African Americans in the army?
What about African Americans in the army?
Gary Gallagher
African Americans made up… There were about 200,000 Black men served in what were called United States Colored Troops units, USCT.
African Americans made up… There were about 200,000 Black men served in what were called United States Colored Troops units, USCT.
Lex Fridman
It was on the Union side.
It was on the Union side.
Gary Gallagher
On the U- Yes. Okay, let’s just dispense with the hallucination that there were a lot of Black men in the Confederate Army. That is such total- Ridiculous nonsense- … utterly unsupported by any evidence that anyone would consider credible. This whole notion of… I mean, it’s just, it’s preposterous. It’s ridic- and I’m really managing my language right here. I’m not saying what I really think it is. So, so just… I’ve seen estimates of as high as 100,000 Black men in the Confederate Army.
On the U- Yes. Okay, let’s just dispense with the hallucination that there were a lot of Black men in the Confederate Army. That is such total- Ridiculous nonsense- … utterly unsupported by any evidence that anyone would consider credible. This whole notion of… I mean, it’s just, it’s preposterous. It’s ridic- and I’m really managing my language right here. I’m not saying what I really think it is. So, so just… I’ve seen estimates of as high as 100,000 Black men in the Confederate Army.
Lex Fridman
Not true.
Not true.
Gary Gallagher
Really, really, no. No. Were there Black men with the Confederate armies? Yes. There are enslaved Black men who are doing all kinds of non-military things in the army to free more white men to shoulder muskets and shoot at Yankees. That’s what’s going on in the Confederate Army. There are a lot of Black men around Union armies before they became soldiers as well. But there are these… 200,000 Black men join the military service during the war. They’re in the Navy and in the Army. They’d always been in the Navy. The US Navy… And they’re not segregated in the Navy in the way that they can be in the Army. They’re just in Bl- you have integrated crews-
Really, really, no. No. Were there Black men with the Confederate armies? Yes. There are enslaved Black men who are doing all kinds of non-military things in the army to free more white men to shoulder muskets and shoot at Yankees. That’s what’s going on in the Confederate Army. There are a lot of Black men around Union armies before they became soldiers as well. But there are these… 200,000 Black men join the military service during the war. They’re in the Navy and in the Army. They’d always been in the Navy. The US Navy… And they’re not segregated in the Navy in the way that they can be in the Army. They’re just in Bl- you have integrated crews-
Gary Gallagher
… on naval vessels, although they’re separated in some ways, but there’ve always been Black sailors in the Navy. The Army, no. That was a big, it’s a big thing to put Black men in uniform. And for a Confederate, it’s bad enough if you announce emancipation, but then you start arming Black men. That, to Confederates, is urging a widespread slave rebellion, basically.
… on naval vessels, although they’re separated in some ways, but there’ve always been Black sailors in the Navy. The Army, no. That was a big, it’s a big thing to put Black men in uniform. And for a Confederate, it’s bad enough if you announce emancipation, but then you start arming Black men. That, to Confederates, is urging a widespread slave rebellion, basically.
Lex Fridman
Black regiments on the Union side was enraging the Confederate side.
Black regiments on the Union side was enraging the Confederate side.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. And they have white officers overwhelmingly. There are a few Black officers, but overwhelmingly the USCT units have white officers leading them.
Yes. And they have white officers overwhelmingly. There are a few Black officers, but overwhelmingly the USCT units have white officers leading them.
Lex Fridman
But symbolically, that is a really powerful thing, right?
But symbolically, that is a really powerful thing, right?
Gary Gallagher
Oh, it’s hard for modern Americans to understand just how jarring that would be to a Confederate, that not only would you have enslaved people no longer enslaved, but you would have the men in uniforms carrying muskets.
Oh, it’s hard for modern Americans to understand just how jarring that would be to a Confederate, that not only would you have enslaved people no longer enslaved, but you would have the men in uniforms carrying muskets.
Lex Fridman
So you as a historian, you’ve looked at every layer of this, including diaries and- … what was motivating? What was going through the minds of African Americans who were fighting for the Union side?
So you as a historian, you’ve looked at every layer of this, including diaries and- … what was motivating? What was going through the minds of African Americans who were fighting for the Union side?
Gary Gallagher
I think what you would expect is going… I mean, they would talk about Union occasionally, but what that means to them, it’s a union without slavery. They have the most… Of all the people who can have a direct impact on what’s going on versus slavery, there’s nothing more direct than picking up a musket and firing at the people who are defending a slavery-based society. It doesn’t get… And at the same time, you are not only doing that, you are also establishing an unimpeachable claim to citizenship. The whole point of a citizen soldier is that you do your bit for the nation that’s helping you, and the nation does these things for you. Well, okay, if I’m picking up and risking my life with a musket in my hand, are you gonna tell me I can’t vote after I do?
I think what you would expect is going… I mean, they would talk about Union occasionally, but what that means to them, it’s a union without slavery. They have the most… Of all the people who can have a direct impact on what’s going on versus slavery, there’s nothing more direct than picking up a musket and firing at the people who are defending a slavery-based society. It doesn’t get… And at the same time, you are not only doing that, you are also establishing an unimpeachable claim to citizenship. The whole point of a citizen soldier is that you do your bit for the nation that’s helping you, and the nation does these things for you. Well, okay, if I’m picking up and risking my life with a musket in my hand, are you gonna tell me I can’t vote after I do?
Gary Gallagher
I thought that’s the whole point of this, when I’m protecting the right to vote by doing my citizen’s role as a soldier. And that was a big debate in Congress. That really changed the equation of that debate as well. How are you gonna treat people after they’ve served in United States units? Can you tell them they can’t vote? You’re not gonna give the vote to them?
I thought that’s the whole point of this, when I’m protecting the right to vote by doing my citizen’s role as a soldier. And that was a big debate in Congress. That really changed the equation of that debate as well. How are you gonna treat people after they’ve served in United States units? Can you tell them they can’t vote? You’re not gonna give the vote to them?
Lex Fridman
How many people in the Black regiments, but also, you know, folks like Frederick Douglass, saw that Black Americans and white Americans should have equal rights?
How many people in the Black regiments, but also, you know, folks like Frederick Douglass, saw that Black Americans and white Americans should have equal rights?
Gary Gallagher
Well, Douglass saw that, of course. But even within their context, their notion of equal rights is that that doesn’t mean that Black women are gonna vote, just like for white people, it didn’t mean white women would vote. But in terms of the context of the time, yes, equal rights should come out of this. Abolishing slavery is the first step of this. It’s not the end game. The end game is equal rights for everybody.
Well, Douglass saw that, of course. But even within their context, their notion of equal rights is that that doesn’t mean that Black women are gonna vote, just like for white people, it didn’t mean white women would vote. But in terms of the context of the time, yes, equal rights should come out of this. Abolishing slavery is the first step of this. It’s not the end game. The end game is equal rights for everybody.
Lex Fridman
Did many people see that?
Did many people see that?
Gary Gallagher
No. A tiny percentage of people saw that. There’s a notion that’s very common that somehow the white North turned its back on Black people after the war, and it should’ve tried harder during Reconstruction to force the white South to convey full equal rights to Black people. The assumption there is simply flawed. Most white people in the North didn’t believe that… They believed first save the Union, and yes, we’ll need to kill slavery as well. Those are the two things on the list. Check, check, we’ve done those. Full equal rights for Black people is not on their list. That it…
No. A tiny percentage of people saw that. There’s a notion that’s very common that somehow the white North turned its back on Black people after the war, and it should’ve tried harder during Reconstruction to force the white South to convey full equal rights to Black people. The assumption there is simply flawed. Most white people in the North didn’t believe that… They believed first save the Union, and yes, we’ll need to kill slavery as well. Those are the two things on the list. Check, check, we’ve done those. Full equal rights for Black people is not on their list. That it…
Gary Gallagher
And they were not willing to do the things that it would’ve taken to do that, including the white soldiers in uniforms who wanted out of the army after the Confederates surrendered and said, “Well, now we need the army to make the white South do the right thing vis-à-vis Black people.” They would’ve said, “What are you talking about?” “I signed on to do this. We did it. Send us home right now.”
And they were not willing to do the things that it would’ve taken to do that, including the white soldiers in uniforms who wanted out of the army after the Confederates surrendered and said, “Well, now we need the army to make the white South do the right thing vis-à-vis Black people.” They would’ve said, “What are you talking about?” “I signed on to do this. We did it. Send us home right now.”
Lex Fridman
I think that’s one of the lessons you learn from human history across the different places where slavery was abolished, is abolishing slavery is not the end of a journey. It’s the beginning of a journey.
I think that’s one of the lessons you learn from human history across the different places where slavery was abolished, is abolishing slavery is not the end of a journey. It’s the beginning of a journey.
Gary Gallagher
It’s the beginning.
It’s the beginning.
Lex Fridman
And it sometimes takes, quite often takes at least 100 years to go from that to something you would identify as equal rights. And then maybe even beyond that, there’s a complicated story about even outside of rights, just how society sees the different people.
And it sometimes takes, quite often takes at least 100 years to go from that to something you would identify as equal rights. And then maybe even beyond that, there’s a complicated story about even outside of rights, just how society sees the different people.
Gary Gallagher
There’s a difference between passing… I mean, the Great Society passed most of the… I mean, you got the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, the Fair Housing Act. You got all of this legislation that does a lot of the legal stuff, but it’s what’s in people’s heads- … that takes longer and is a, is a more frustrating process.
There’s a difference between passing… I mean, the Great Society passed most of the… I mean, you got the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, the Fair Housing Act. You got all of this legislation that does a lot of the legal stuff, but it’s what’s in people’s heads- … that takes longer and is a, is a more frustrating process.
Lex Fridman
Remains, as has appeared in human history, potential fuel for the division to rise up again.
Remains, as has appeared in human history, potential fuel for the division to rise up again.
Gary Gallagher
Of course. And then people can exploit that. It’s, it’s waiting to be exploited, and people exploit it.
Of course. And then people can exploit that. It’s, it’s waiting to be exploited, and people exploit it.
Lex Fridman
This is something we do as humans. We like to otherize certain groups.
This is something we do as humans. We like to otherize certain groups.
Gary Gallagher
Good to have an enemy.
Good to have an enemy.
Lex Fridman
And the Civil War for our country is a story of this. It’s… So understanding the Civil War is in part extremely important for understanding the, the division, maybe the dormant division that’s there.
And the Civil War for our country is a story of this. It’s… So understanding the Civil War is in part extremely important for understanding the, the division, maybe the dormant division that’s there.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. And there, and even before the war, there were- There were notions about the other side that sort– for, for a lot of people in the free states looking South, they said white Southerners are because of they’re lazy, they’re violent, they, they don’t wanna talk out a problem. They’ll do what Preston Brooks did to Charles Sumner. They’ll beat him over the head with a cane, and they’re used to this because they have slavery, and they’re used to brutalizing Black people. That’s just how they approach things. And the white South would look North and say they don’t care anything about family. They’re all just lusting after money. All they care about is material things. They don’t have any sense of kinship or family. They’re… That’s what Yankees are.
Yes. And there, and even before the war, there were- There were notions about the other side that sort– for, for a lot of people in the free states looking South, they said white Southerners are because of they’re lazy, they’re violent, they, they don’t wanna talk out a problem. They’ll do what Preston Brooks did to Charles Sumner. They’ll beat him over the head with a cane, and they’re used to this because they have slavery, and they’re used to brutalizing Black people. That’s just how they approach things. And the white South would look North and say they don’t care anything about family. They’re all just lusting after money. All they care about is material things. They don’t have any sense of kinship or family. They’re… That’s what Yankees are.
Gary Gallagher
It doesn’t even matter whether any of that is true, of course. There was a sense perceptions are more important than reality with human beings, and the perceptions on the eve of the Civil War were that the other side was different in a lot of ways. They also had profoundly commonalities. They had a common language, a common religion, a common history, these founding documents. All of that would pull things, pull people together. But they found ways to see differences and divided some of the churches. I mean, Protestant churches divided over slavery.
It doesn’t even matter whether any of that is true, of course. There was a sense perceptions are more important than reality with human beings, and the perceptions on the eve of the Civil War were that the other side was different in a lot of ways. They also had profoundly commonalities. They had a common language, a common religion, a common history, these founding documents. All of that would pull things, pull people together. But they found ways to see differences and divided some of the churches. I mean, Protestant churches divided over slavery.
Lex Fridman
And many of these themes continue to today.
And many of these themes continue to today.
Key battles of the Civil War
Lex Fridman
Let’s talk about the different theaters of the war, the Eastern Theater and the Western Theater. You mentioned the navies, the geography. How does geography come into play? What are the different parts here?
Let’s talk about the different theaters of the war, the Eastern Theater and the Western Theater. You mentioned the navies, the geography. How does geography come into play? What are the different parts here?
Gary Gallagher
There’s three main theaters of the war. The Eastern Theater is the theater that features Washington and Richmond. Plays out in Virginia, a little bit of Maryland, and a little bit of Pennsylvania. That’s– it’s where the Army of Northern Virginia and the Army of the Potomac fight for the most part. That’s the Eastern Theater.
There’s three main theaters of the war. The Eastern Theater is the theater that features Washington and Richmond. Plays out in Virginia, a little bit of Maryland, and a little bit of Pennsylvania. That’s– it’s where the Army of Northern Virginia and the Army of the Potomac fight for the most part. That’s the Eastern Theater.
Lex Fridman
And that’s the theater that maybe is most glorified and mythologized.
And that’s the theater that maybe is most glorified and mythologized.
Gary Gallagher
It’s by far the most famous of the theaters.
It’s by far the most famous of the theaters.
Lex Fridman
Famous.
Famous.
Gary Gallagher
There are famous battles in the other theaters, but that’s the one, and it’s mainly because of the presence of Lee and then of Grant. The Western Theater is a much larger one. It goes from the Appalachian Mountains to the Mississippi River, east to west, and would go from the Gulf to the Ohio River, so it’s huge and involves Tennessee. And, and then beyond the Mississippi River is the descriptively named Trans-Mississippi River, part of Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, and so forth. In terms of commitment of resources and effect on the outcome of the war, it’s by far the least important. Some people get very upset when I said that, say that, that the Trans– you know, it’s basically who cares about what’s going on out there.
There are famous battles in the other theaters, but that’s the one, and it’s mainly because of the presence of Lee and then of Grant. The Western Theater is a much larger one. It goes from the Appalachian Mountains to the Mississippi River, east to west, and would go from the Gulf to the Ohio River, so it’s huge and involves Tennessee. And, and then beyond the Mississippi River is the descriptively named Trans-Mississippi River, part of Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, and so forth. In terms of commitment of resources and effect on the outcome of the war, it’s by far the least important. Some people get very upset when I said that, say that, that the Trans– you know, it’s basically who cares about what’s going on out there.
Gary Gallagher
But that’s the third theater, the Trans-Mississippi, the Western Theater, and the Eastern Theater.
But that’s the third theater, the Trans-Mississippi, the Western Theater, and the Eastern Theater.
Lex Fridman
But I think you’ve argued that the Western Theater is really important for the war.
But I think you’ve argued that the Western Theater is really important for the war.
Gary Gallagher
Very important, and it, it’s where we get Grant. The soldiers who won the war for the United States all come out of the Western Theater. Grant, he brings Sherman, Philip Sheridan, George Thomas. Those are all in the Western Theater.
Very important, and it, it’s where we get Grant. The soldiers who won the war for the United States all come out of the Western Theater. Grant, he brings Sherman, Philip Sheridan, George Thomas. Those are all in the Western Theater.
Lex Fridman
So at the very beginning, the first real battle at the First Manassas in July 1861, I think one interesting aspect of that, as you’ve talked about, is that people gathered for a picnic.
So at the very beginning, the first real battle at the First Manassas in July 1861, I think one interesting aspect of that, as you’ve talked about, is that people gathered for a picnic.
Gary Gallagher
They came out to watch from Washington. They brought the carriages out, set up on a little ridge that let them look down over the battle.
They came out to watch from Washington. They brought the carriages out, set up on a little ridge that let them look down over the battle.
Lex Fridman
So that kind of gives you a sense that people of the time, first of all, didn’t think this would– this is going to scale to the size that it did or last as long as it did, but also not understand the seriousness of the situation.
So that kind of gives you a sense that people of the time, first of all, didn’t think this would– this is going to scale to the size that it did or last as long as it did, but also not understand the seriousness of the situation.
Gary Gallagher
They’re clueless about what’s actually going on. To even think that you should go observe a battle like that is ridiculous, but they did. And there was a strong belief, and Lincoln was part of this at the beginning, that there’s probably gonna be one battle. It’s not gonna last. He asked for 90-day volunteers to suppress the rebellion right after Fort Sumter. William Tecumseh Sherman reacted to that by saying that you might as well try to put out a fire with a squirt gun. I mean, it’s ridiculous. They’re not thinking about what this war could easily be. Take years, take hundreds of thousands of men maybe, not one battle.
They’re clueless about what’s actually going on. To even think that you should go observe a battle like that is ridiculous, but they did. And there was a strong belief, and Lincoln was part of this at the beginning, that there’s probably gonna be one battle. It’s not gonna last. He asked for 90-day volunteers to suppress the rebellion right after Fort Sumter. William Tecumseh Sherman reacted to that by saying that you might as well try to put out a fire with a squirt gun. I mean, it’s ridiculous. They’re not thinking about what this war could easily be. Take years, take hundreds of thousands of men maybe, not one battle.
Lex Fridman
When did it, the dark cloud, the reality of the war come in?
When did it, the dark cloud, the reality of the war come in?
Gary Gallagher
Well, First Bull Run and Star or Manassas, each side, many battles have two names, one that the United States soldiers used and one… And usually the Confederates would pick the nearest town, and the United States often picked terrain features, so you get Bull Run, which is a creek or stream. That’s what the Union soldiers called it. Manassas is what the Confederates called it. Antietam, a creek in Maryland, is what the Union… Sharpsburg is what Confederates called it. Anyway, there are several of those. That brought a little sense of reality to people in the United States especially. They’d expected it to be over, and it didn’t go the way they thought it would go, and so it’s gonna take more men.
Well, First Bull Run and Star or Manassas, each side, many battles have two names, one that the United States soldiers used and one… And usually the Confederates would pick the nearest town, and the United States often picked terrain features, so you get Bull Run, which is a creek or stream. That’s what the Union soldiers called it. Manassas is what the Confederates called it. Antietam, a creek in Maryland, is what the Union… Sharpsburg is what Confederates called it. Anyway, there are several of those. That brought a little sense of reality to people in the United States especially. They’d expected it to be over, and it didn’t go the way they thought it would go, and so it’s gonna take more men.
Gary Gallagher
The summer of ’61 was spent, hundreds of thousands of men went into uniform in the summer of ’61. The whole supply situation became more evidently imperative, but not much happened for the rest of the war. There’s a pretty big battle called the Battle of Wilson’s Creek that takes place in Missouri, but the rest of 1861 doesn’t have… The real fighting begins in the spring of ’62, and what really brought home in a way that no one had imagined what could be in store was one battle in the East and one battle in the West. The one in the West is Shiloh, which happened in early April. US Grant on the United States side and General Albert Sidney Johnston on the Confederate side.
The summer of ’61 was spent, hundreds of thousands of men went into uniform in the summer of ’61. The whole supply situation became more evidently imperative, but not much happened for the rest of the war. There’s a pretty big battle called the Battle of Wilson’s Creek that takes place in Missouri, but the rest of 1861 doesn’t have… The real fighting begins in the spring of ’62, and what really brought home in a way that no one had imagined what could be in store was one battle in the East and one battle in the West. The one in the West is Shiloh, which happened in early April. US Grant on the United States side and General Albert Sidney Johnston on the Confederate side.
Gary Gallagher
But at Shiloh in two days, there were upwards of 25,000 casualties, and that’s more battle casualties than US forces had suffered in every war combined down to that point happened in two days. Two and a half months after that, George B. McClellan’s army engaged with Lee’s army in what came to be called the Seven Days Battles at Richmond, 36,000 casualties. So those two together just showed that this was gonna be on a totally different scale, and it was gonna involve sacrifices and allocation of resources that no one had imagined before.
But at Shiloh in two days, there were upwards of 25,000 casualties, and that’s more battle casualties than US forces had suffered in every war combined down to that point happened in two days. Two and a half months after that, George B. McClellan’s army engaged with Lee’s army in what came to be called the Seven Days Battles at Richmond, 36,000 casualties. So those two together just showed that this was gonna be on a totally different scale, and it was gonna involve sacrifices and allocation of resources that no one had imagined before.
Lex Fridman
Since you mentioned Missouri, you’ve talked about how that was the most brutal guerrilla warfare of the conflict. And maybe can you speak to what do you mean by guerrilla warfare? What kind of war was that? And then contrast with the structure, the dynamics of battles elsewhere in the war.
Since you mentioned Missouri, you’ve talked about how that was the most brutal guerrilla warfare of the conflict. And maybe can you speak to what do you mean by guerrilla warfare? What kind of war was that? And then contrast with the structure, the dynamics of battles elsewhere in the war.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. Guerrilla war is more of what I think most Americans can sort of imagine what guerrilla war is. It involves small, much, much smaller numbers of actors, obviously, on both sides. Guerrilla bands might have a few dozen members. They might have a few hundred at different times. There are no real battles between guerrillas. There is a lot of bushwhacking, which is what they called it, ambushing people, terrorizing civilians, killing livestock, killing some civilians, killing prisoners after you’ve captured them, hanging some people. There are a few semi-large scale ones.
Yes. Guerrilla war is more of what I think most Americans can sort of imagine what guerrilla war is. It involves small, much, much smaller numbers of actors, obviously, on both sides. Guerrilla bands might have a few dozen members. They might have a few hundred at different times. There are no real battles between guerrillas. There is a lot of bushwhacking, which is what they called it, ambushing people, terrorizing civilians, killing livestock, killing some civilians, killing prisoners after you’ve captured them, hanging some people. There are a few semi-large scale ones.
Gary Gallagher
There’s a Confederate guerrilla named Quantrill led a raid against Lawrence, Kansas, where they burned parts of the town, executed more than 150 men in the town, and terrorized the place. That is going on in the… There’s a relationship in many places between elevation and guerrilla activity. The more mountainous or hilly, the more likely there’ll be guerrillas operating. They operate in the mountains, East Tennessee, western North Carolina, southwestern Virginia, central… There’s even some activity in parts of Texas, but Missouri and Kentucky have the worst guerrilla warfare. It’s present through the whole war, probably involves maybe 50,000 men out of the 3 million who were in action during the war, and was very nasty, no rules.
There’s a Confederate guerrilla named Quantrill led a raid against Lawrence, Kansas, where they burned parts of the town, executed more than 150 men in the town, and terrorized the place. That is going on in the… There’s a relationship in many places between elevation and guerrilla activity. The more mountainous or hilly, the more likely there’ll be guerrillas operating. They operate in the mountains, East Tennessee, western North Carolina, southwestern Virginia, central… There’s even some activity in parts of Texas, but Missouri and Kentucky have the worst guerrilla warfare. It’s present through the whole war, probably involves maybe 50,000 men out of the 3 million who were in action during the war, and was very nasty, no rules.
Gary Gallagher
One reason that rules of war were codified was because Henry Halleck, who was a Union general in Missouri, was dealing with this guerrilla activity and he said, “We need to get some rules about who’s a civilian, who’s not a civilian. How do you deal with this kind of situation and that kind of situation?”
One reason that rules of war were codified was because Henry Halleck, who was a Union general in Missouri, was dealing with this guerrilla activity and he said, “We need to get some rules about who’s a civilian, who’s not a civilian. How do you deal with this kind of situation and that kind of situation?”
Lex Fridman
What should we take away from the fact that most of the fighting had the rules of war behind it? So it was more structured, it was–
What should we take away from the fact that most of the fighting had the rules of war behind it? So it was more structured, it was–
Gary Gallagher
I think what we take away from that supports my argument that this is a war between two mid-19th century nation states that have a sense of how you fight a war. You fight a war with national armies who are led by professional soldiers and who understand that there are limits to what you do in a war, and all the war, the war’s limits expand as it goes on, but it doesn’t reach the point where you have indiscriminate killing of civilians and so forth. You just don’t… I mean, there’s an argument about whether it’s a total war or not. It all depends on how you define total war.
I think what we take away from that supports my argument that this is a war between two mid-19th century nation states that have a sense of how you fight a war. You fight a war with national armies who are led by professional soldiers and who understand that there are limits to what you do in a war, and all the war, the war’s limits expand as it goes on, but it doesn’t reach the point where you have indiscriminate killing of civilians and so forth. You just don’t… I mean, there’s an argument about whether it’s a total war or not. It all depends on how you define total war.
Lex Fridman
As you’ve mentioned, in terms of how encompassing it was, as total a war as it gets because the entirety of the society was involved in it.
As you’ve mentioned, in terms of how encompassing it was, as total a war as it gets because the entirety of the society was involved in it.
Gary Gallagher
When there’s wide-scale targeting of the economic infrastructure of your opponent that can be used to support the war effort, which is what you get increasingly as the war goes on and officially when Grant is in charge as general-in-chief, then certainly that’s a total… If you’re the farmer who experiences an army coming by and they take or kill all your livestock and destroy your crops, that’s pretty much like a total war, even if they don’t kill you.
When there’s wide-scale targeting of the economic infrastructure of your opponent that can be used to support the war effort, which is what you get increasingly as the war goes on and officially when Grant is in charge as general-in-chief, then certainly that’s a total… If you’re the farmer who experiences an army coming by and they take or kill all your livestock and destroy your crops, that’s pretty much like a total war, even if they don’t kill you.
Lex Fridman
So the war escalates.
So the war escalates.
Gary Gallagher
Yes, the war does escalate. ’62, it takes a quantum leap. In the spring and early summer of 1862, the signals are clear this is something that we had not counted on before. And the armies are gonna be much bigger. The Army of the Potomac’s more than 100,000 men. There’s never been an army like that in US history, nothing like that.
Yes, the war does escalate. ’62, it takes a quantum leap. In the spring and early summer of 1862, the signals are clear this is something that we had not counted on before. And the armies are gonna be much bigger. The Army of the Potomac’s more than 100,000 men. There’s never been an army like that in US history, nothing like that.
Lex Fridman
What do we understand from the diaries of soldiers coming for the first time face to face with this scale of war? We’re talking about a year. They’ve been volunteering for a year, like you mentioned, you know, in the summer, in the spring and the summer of ’62.
What do we understand from the diaries of soldiers coming for the first time face to face with this scale of war? We’re talking about a year. They’ve been volunteering for a year, like you mentioned, you know, in the summer, in the spring and the summer of ’62.
Gary Gallagher
There’s so many themes in soldier letters, and it’s an incredible gift to people such as myself who study this, is that almost, that a very large majority of the men on both sides were literate. And so we have this mass of testimony. And they sent millions of letters from the armies home and back to the armies on both sides. So we have this trove of first-hand evidence and diaries too, many, many diaries. But so you can see in real time how attitudes are changing, hardening. You can see the hardening process in soldiers who, they don’t have any idea what being a soldier is, then they do, and they don’t like lots of things about it. They don’t…
There’s so many themes in soldier letters, and it’s an incredible gift to people such as myself who study this, is that almost, that a very large majority of the men on both sides were literate. And so we have this mass of testimony. And they sent millions of letters from the armies home and back to the armies on both sides. So we have this trove of first-hand evidence and diaries too, many, many diaries. But so you can see in real time how attitudes are changing, hardening. You can see the hardening process in soldiers who, they don’t have any idea what being a soldier is, then they do, and they don’t like lots of things about it. They don’t…
Gary Gallagher
They talk a lot about food, talk a lot about clothing, talk a lot about officers they don’t like. They don’t talk… what one thing, it’s really fascinating, the thing they don’t try to do is explain to people behind the lines exactly what it’s like to be in a battle because they understand the people back home won’t understand what they’re talking about. And so they’ll say things like, “It was awful,” and, “Words just can’t convey what it was,” and then maybe tell more about their individual experience. But there’s a real sense that what a veteran knows about being in the military and what the people back home will understand are two different things, and you just can’t explain it to them.
They talk a lot about food, talk a lot about clothing, talk a lot about officers they don’t like. They don’t talk… what one thing, it’s really fascinating, the thing they don’t try to do is explain to people behind the lines exactly what it’s like to be in a battle because they understand the people back home won’t understand what they’re talking about. And so they’ll say things like, “It was awful,” and, “Words just can’t convey what it was,” and then maybe tell more about their individual experience. But there’s a real sense that what a veteran knows about being in the military and what the people back home will understand are two different things, and you just can’t explain it to them.
Lex Fridman
And so that takes us into the fall of the Battle of Antietam. Can you walk me through what happened at the battle and why it mattered?
And so that takes us into the fall of the Battle of Antietam. Can you walk me through what happened at the battle and why it mattered?
Gary Gallagher
George B. McClellan, whom I’ve already referred to dismissively a couple of times… He was-
George B. McClellan, whom I’ve already referred to dismissively a couple of times… He was-
Gary Gallagher
… he was in charge of the Army of the Potomac by this point. He’d been general in chief for a brief time and commanding the Army of the Potomac. And he finally approached Richmond. He got within, literally within five miles of Richmond. He was opposing an officer named Joseph E. Johnston, who just, his first thought every day was, “What a great day to retreat. Where could I go? I could go that way, or I could go that way.” He and McClellan were a match made in heaven. McClellan didn’t wanna go anywhere, and Johnston only wanted to retreat. Anyway, they finally ended up at Richmond. Johnston got wounded, got hit by a shell fragment outside Richmond in the Battle of Seven Pines, and he’s replaced by Robert E. Lee.
… he was in charge of the Army of the Potomac by this point. He’d been general in chief for a brief time and commanding the Army of the Potomac. And he finally approached Richmond. He got within, literally within five miles of Richmond. He was opposing an officer named Joseph E. Johnston, who just, his first thought every day was, “What a great day to retreat. Where could I go? I could go that way, or I could go that way.” He and McClellan were a match made in heaven. McClellan didn’t wanna go anywhere, and Johnston only wanted to retreat. Anyway, they finally ended up at Richmond. Johnston got wounded, got hit by a shell fragment outside Richmond in the Battle of Seven Pines, and he’s replaced by Robert E. Lee.
Gary Gallagher
And McClellan, in his usual perceptive way, observed that this was great because he knew that Lee was too timid to ever be an effective presence on the battlefield. So he read him just exactly the way-
And McClellan, in his usual perceptive way, observed that this was great because he knew that Lee was too timid to ever be an effective presence on the battlefield. So he read him just exactly the way-
Gary Gallagher
… that McClellan would. He ends up fighting Lee, and in the Seven Days’ Battles, McClellan is pushed away from Richmond. He shouldn’t have been, but he was. That was considered a great victory. Lee’s reputation goes up after that. Then Lee follows that up with the campaign of Second Bull Run, which reorients the war from Richmond to Manassas, the old First Manassas battlefield in northern Virginia. Stonewall Jackson plays a key role in it. He wins the Battle of Second Bull Run in late August 1862, and then invades the loyal states for the first time. He crosses into Maryland in early September with an army that is broken down in terms of supply. He has tremendous straggling problems and desertion problems, Lee did, in … He moved across the army with about 50,000 men.
… that McClellan would. He ends up fighting Lee, and in the Seven Days’ Battles, McClellan is pushed away from Richmond. He shouldn’t have been, but he was. That was considered a great victory. Lee’s reputation goes up after that. Then Lee follows that up with the campaign of Second Bull Run, which reorients the war from Richmond to Manassas, the old First Manassas battlefield in northern Virginia. Stonewall Jackson plays a key role in it. He wins the Battle of Second Bull Run in late August 1862, and then invades the loyal states for the first time. He crosses into Maryland in early September with an army that is broken down in terms of supply. He has tremendous straggling problems and desertion problems, Lee did, in … He moved across the army with about 50,000 men.
Gary Gallagher
When they finally came to battle at Antietam, which is in western Maryland, he only had about 35,000 soldiers on the field. McClellan had about 80,000 on the other side. And McClellan had captured a copy of Lee’s entire orders for the whole campaign, Special Orders Number 191. They had gone through an old Confederate camp- … and found a copy of Lee’s orders.
When they finally came to battle at Antietam, which is in western Maryland, he only had about 35,000 soldiers on the field. McClellan had about 80,000 on the other side. And McClellan had captured a copy of Lee’s entire orders for the whole campaign, Special Orders Number 191. They had gone through an old Confederate camp- … and found a copy of Lee’s orders.
Gary Gallagher
And still McClellan didn’t move quickly. I won’t bash McClellan. They fight. The bloodiest single day in US history is Antietam, the battle of 23,000 casualties in one day there. Very close thing. Lee hangs on by just the narrowest margin, sits on the battlefield for another whole day, which he shouldn’t have done. He was being way too bold there, and then retreated, got back across the Potomac River. Confederates looked at this whole thing as a drama in three acts: save Richmond, reorient the war to northern Virginia, cross into the United States—and they saw it as a success. Richmond’s no longer threatened.
And still McClellan didn’t move quickly. I won’t bash McClellan. They fight. The bloodiest single day in US history is Antietam, the battle of 23,000 casualties in one day there. Very close thing. Lee hangs on by just the narrowest margin, sits on the battlefield for another whole day, which he shouldn’t have done. He was being way too bold there, and then retreated, got back across the Potomac River. Confederates looked at this whole thing as a drama in three acts: save Richmond, reorient the war to northern Virginia, cross into the United States—and they saw it as a success. Richmond’s no longer threatened.
Gary Gallagher
Lee’s reputation has gone way up. McClellan has frustrated Lincoln immeasurably, and as a result, Lincoln removes McClellan from command. He waits till the day after the elections in November ’cause McClellan’s popular among Democrats, and Lincoln is an adept politician. He fires him the day after the elections and replaces him with a guy named Ambrose Burnside.
Lee’s reputation has gone way up. McClellan has frustrated Lincoln immeasurably, and as a result, Lincoln removes McClellan from command. He waits till the day after the elections in November ’cause McClellan’s popular among Democrats, and Lincoln is an adept politician. He fires him the day after the elections and replaces him with a guy named Ambrose Burnside.
Lex Fridman
So what can you say about what makes a great general and what makes a poor general in all of this?
So what can you say about what makes a great general and what makes a poor general in all of this?
Gary Gallagher
Well, McClellan is a very smart guy, and he was on Winfield Scott’s staff in Mexico, as was Lee, which is a sign that you’re a pretty bright officer. He built the Army of the Potomac. He did a brilliant job building the Army of the Potomac. The troops loved him. There was never a bond with any other commander the way they had with McClellan. But what he couldn’t do when the moment came, when the moment came, he couldn’t risk things. He was risk-averse. He had a chance to capture Richmond against Lee. He should have, and he didn’t. He withdrew. He had a chance … You almost never had a chance to destroy another army in the Civil War. He had a chance to destroy Lee’s army at Antietam, and he didn’t. He pulled back. He didn’t even use 20,000 of his men.
Well, McClellan is a very smart guy, and he was on Winfield Scott’s staff in Mexico, as was Lee, which is a sign that you’re a pretty bright officer. He built the Army of the Potomac. He did a brilliant job building the Army of the Potomac. The troops loved him. There was never a bond with any other commander the way they had with McClellan. But what he couldn’t do when the moment came, when the moment came, he couldn’t risk things. He was risk-averse. He had a chance to capture Richmond against Lee. He should have, and he didn’t. He withdrew. He had a chance … You almost never had a chance to destroy another army in the Civil War. He had a chance to destroy Lee’s army at Antietam, and he didn’t. He pulled back. He didn’t even use 20,000 of his men.
Gary Gallagher
They never fired their muskets at Antietam. If you’re in Lee’s army, you’re gonna fire your musket. If you’re in McClellan’s army, maybe, maybe not. He didn’t at Antietam. He let Lee get away. It frustrated Lincoln immensely, and Lincoln finally fired him because of that. It was a flaw. He lacked what they would’ve called in the mid-19th century the moral courage to risk everything. Grant had it. Lee had it. McClellan didn’t have it.
They never fired their muskets at Antietam. If you’re in Lee’s army, you’re gonna fire your musket. If you’re in McClellan’s army, maybe, maybe not. He didn’t at Antietam. He let Lee get away. It frustrated Lincoln immensely, and Lincoln finally fired him because of that. It was a flaw. He lacked what they would’ve called in the mid-19th century the moral courage to risk everything. Grant had it. Lee had it. McClellan didn’t have it.
Lex Fridman
One of the components of a great general is to, the willingness to risk it all, obviously with, with good advice, with intelligence, but-
One of the components of a great general is to, the willingness to risk it all, obviously with, with good advice, with intelligence, but-
Gary Gallagher
Which he had-
Which he had-
Lex Fridman
… risk failure.
… risk failure.
Gary Gallagher
The whole war changed in this arc between the Seven Days and Antietam, and it changed in this way. McClellan’s defeat at the Seven Days, this is in late June and early July ’62, convinced both Congress and Lincoln that slavery was gonna have to be put on the table. The war’s gonna be moral and con- McClellan could’ve won the war with slavery intact.
The whole war changed in this arc between the Seven Days and Antietam, and it changed in this way. McClellan’s defeat at the Seven Days, this is in late June and early July ’62, convinced both Congress and Lincoln that slavery was gonna have to be put on the table. The war’s gonna be moral and con- McClellan could’ve won the war with slavery intact.
Gary Gallagher
He didn’t, so Congress passed the Second Confiscation Act in late July, which I mentioned earlier, which strikes at slavery. And then Lincoln decided, he told his cabinet toward the end of July that he was gonna issue a proclamation of emancipation, and he was persuaded that he couldn’t just do it then in the wake of a defeat. He should wait until he had a victory. He got another defeat at Second Bull Run. He finally got a victory at Antietam because Lee retreated, and then that’s when he announced the preliminary proclamation. The key battle here isn’t Antietam. The key battle is the Seven Days and McClellan’s defeat that persuades Lincoln to do this. Antietam gives him the occasion to do it, and he issued his preliminary proclamation five days after the battle on September 22nd, 1862.
He didn’t, so Congress passed the Second Confiscation Act in late July, which I mentioned earlier, which strikes at slavery. And then Lincoln decided, he told his cabinet toward the end of July that he was gonna issue a proclamation of emancipation, and he was persuaded that he couldn’t just do it then in the wake of a defeat. He should wait until he had a victory. He got another defeat at Second Bull Run. He finally got a victory at Antietam because Lee retreated, and then that’s when he announced the preliminary proclamation. The key battle here isn’t Antietam. The key battle is the Seven Days and McClellan’s defeat that persuades Lincoln to do this. Antietam gives him the occasion to do it, and he issued his preliminary proclamation five days after the battle on September 22nd, 1862.
Lex Fridman
Can you elaborate why it became obvious that slavery has to be on the table as, as the motivation, as the driving motivation-
Can you elaborate why it became obvious that slavery has to be on the table as, as the motivation, as the driving motivation-
Gary Gallagher
Yes-
Yes-
Lex Fridman
… for the war at that time?
… for the war at that time?
Gary Gallagher
Because people believed the … And they were right. The war was almost over at the end of May 1862. It had been a catastrophe for the Confederacy in the Western Theater. They had lost New Orleans. New Orleans was surrender- the biggest city in the Confederacy by far, 160,000 people, four times bigger than the next biggest con- the most important port. The key to the Mississippi River Valley as an economic artery. If you don’t control New Orleans, the Mississippi isn’t an economic river for you. New Orleans was gone in April. Nashville was gone, the key city and capital of Tennessee. Memphis was gone in June. The whole state of Tennessee, except the mountainous East Tennessee, was basically not a Confederate state anymore by May 1862.
Because people believed the … And they were right. The war was almost over at the end of May 1862. It had been a catastrophe for the Confederacy in the Western Theater. They had lost New Orleans. New Orleans was surrender- the biggest city in the Confederacy by far, 160,000 people, four times bigger than the next biggest con- the most important port. The key to the Mississippi River Valley as an economic artery. If you don’t control New Orleans, the Mississippi isn’t an economic river for you. New Orleans was gone in April. Nashville was gone, the key city and capital of Tennessee. Memphis was gone in June. The whole state of Tennessee, except the mountainous East Tennessee, was basically not a Confederate state anymore by May 1862.
Gary Gallagher
There was a Union army of 100,000 in northern Mississippi by the end of May. Catastrophic. And George B. McClellan’s army was within five miles of the national capital in Richmond. I don’t think the Confederacy could have absorbed the loss of Richmond at that point. I think it would’ve been over, and emancipation was not on the table yet in an official way. The fact that Richmond didn’t fall convinced people in the North that the war was gonna have to last a lot longer. The Confederates were gonna be harder to beat, convinced Europe of the same thing. By Europe, I mean France and England. That’s what mattered. And so they decided that they were gonna have to take more extreme measures, and then the key, more extreme measure is strike at slavery. Strike at it as a war measure directly.
There was a Union army of 100,000 in northern Mississippi by the end of May. Catastrophic. And George B. McClellan’s army was within five miles of the national capital in Richmond. I don’t think the Confederacy could have absorbed the loss of Richmond at that point. I think it would’ve been over, and emancipation was not on the table yet in an official way. The fact that Richmond didn’t fall convinced people in the North that the war was gonna have to last a lot longer. The Confederates were gonna be harder to beat, convinced Europe of the same thing. By Europe, I mean France and England. That’s what mattered. And so they decided that they were gonna have to take more extreme measures, and then the key, more extreme measure is strike at slavery. Strike at it as a war measure directly.
Lex Fridman
And as a war measure, it what? Attacks at the economic infrastructure of the Confederacy.
And as a war measure, it what? Attacks at the economic infrastructure of the Confederacy.
Gary Gallagher
It attacks the economic infrastructure that enables the Confederacy to maintain the largest possible army in the war.
It attacks the economic infrastructure that enables the Confederacy to maintain the largest possible army in the war.
Lex Fridman
So this is not about the ethics, the morality of slavery. It’s the-
So this is not about the ethics, the morality of slavery. It’s the-
Gary Gallagher
It is for the abolitionists who see it, and Frederick Douglass realized that this is good. The abolitionists realized early on, even in 1861, some of them, Charles Sumner, for example, saw the Union defeat at First Bull Run. “Yes, it’s bad that we lost, but the longer the war goes, the more likely that we can get slavery on the table, get emancipation on the table.” Frederick Douglass believed the same thing. A longer war made that more likely, and McClellan handed them that gift by not being as aggressive as he should’ve been at Richmond in 1862.
It is for the abolitionists who see it, and Frederick Douglass realized that this is good. The abolitionists realized early on, even in 1861, some of them, Charles Sumner, for example, saw the Union defeat at First Bull Run. “Yes, it’s bad that we lost, but the longer the war goes, the more likely that we can get slavery on the table, get emancipation on the table.” Frederick Douglass believed the same thing. A longer war made that more likely, and McClellan handed them that gift by not being as aggressive as he should’ve been at Richmond in 1862.
Lex Fridman
But we should say, and correct me if I’m wrong, that only a tiny minority of Americans were abolitionists at that time.
But we should say, and correct me if I’m wrong, that only a tiny minority of Americans were abolitionists at that time.
Gary Gallagher
We’ll never know exactly. I would say if you… I think if you guessed 3% were r- I mean, really abolitionists, destroy it now, destroy it completely, no compensation for rebel owners or any owners, kill it in Kentucky, kill it in Missouri, kill it in Maryland. Yes, I think 3% would be about the ballpark.
We’ll never know exactly. I would say if you… I think if you guessed 3% were r- I mean, really abolitionists, destroy it now, destroy it completely, no compensation for rebel owners or any owners, kill it in Kentucky, kill it in Missouri, kill it in Maryland. Yes, I think 3% would be about the ballpark.
Lex Fridman
So of course, now we venerate those folks, and we mythologize them, and so they become bigger in our minds. But it sh- we should remember that they’re a tiny percentage.
So of course, now we venerate those folks, and we mythologize them, and so they become bigger in our minds. But it sh- we should remember that they’re a tiny percentage.
Gary Gallagher
They’re a tiny percentage, and there are other factors that are pushing forward the process that leads to the 13th Amendment. It’s not just people who hate slavery so much that they’ll do anything to kill it. The… in fact, most of them aren’t. That’s not what they are. We wish they were, but they’re not. And Lincoln is in a tough position. Lincoln hates slavery personally, but he’s president trying to win a war, and he can’t win the war with just Republicans. He has to try to keep Democrats on board, so he has to… I mean, and the Constitution protects slavery. In Kentucky and Missouri and Maryland and Delaware. They’re still in the nation. The Constitution still applies. Congress, by the time, by the end of June, had already gotten rid of slavery in the only two places where it could.
They’re a tiny percentage, and there are other factors that are pushing forward the process that leads to the 13th Amendment. It’s not just people who hate slavery so much that they’ll do anything to kill it. The… in fact, most of them aren’t. That’s not what they are. We wish they were, but they’re not. And Lincoln is in a tough position. Lincoln hates slavery personally, but he’s president trying to win a war, and he can’t win the war with just Republicans. He has to try to keep Democrats on board, so he has to… I mean, and the Constitution protects slavery. In Kentucky and Missouri and Maryland and Delaware. They’re still in the nation. The Constitution still applies. Congress, by the time, by the end of June, had already gotten rid of slavery in the only two places where it could.
Gary Gallagher
And that is in the federal territories and the District of Columbia. No compensation in the territories, but there were hardly any enslaved people there, and there was some compensation in the District of Columbia.
And that is in the federal territories and the District of Columbia. No compensation in the territories, but there were hardly any enslaved people there, and there was some compensation in the District of Columbia.
Lex Fridman
You said that Lincoln hates slavery. Can we just take that tangent and from a perspective of some, there’s a, there’s a hypocrisy there in pushing for a policy of colonization.
You said that Lincoln hates slavery. Can we just take that tangent and from a perspective of some, there’s a, there’s a hypocrisy there in pushing for a policy of colonization.
Gary Gallagher
Colonization. Yes, colonization. In the summer of 1862, Lincoln met with a group of Black leaders and tried to convince them to support colonization, which colonization meant if you freed enslaved people, then they would go somewhere else. They’d go out of the United States. It’s why Liberia exists. And Lincoln, that is probably the least attractive element of his total thinking on… He genuinely didn’t believe that white people would ever accept Black people as equals. He told the leaders that when he met with them, and he said, “You wouldn’t want it that way. I wouldn’t either. It’s the way it is. It’s a reality.”
Colonization. Yes, colonization. In the summer of 1862, Lincoln met with a group of Black leaders and tried to convince them to support colonization, which colonization meant if you freed enslaved people, then they would go somewhere else. They’d go out of the United States. It’s why Liberia exists. And Lincoln, that is probably the least attractive element of his total thinking on… He genuinely didn’t believe that white people would ever accept Black people as equals. He told the leaders that when he met with them, and he said, “You wouldn’t want it that way. I wouldn’t either. It’s the way it is. It’s a reality.”
Lex Fridman
Do, do we know he believed that, or is this a pragmatic politician understanding the lay of the land?
Do, do we know he believed that, or is this a pragmatic politician understanding the lay of the land?
Gary Gallagher
I think for someone who was born in Kentucky and reared in Southern Indiana and Southern Illinois, he was never around anything but a level of intensity on race that he probably didn’t ever see, wasn’t ever around white people who he could see accepting Black people as fully equal. That’s- … I do believe that.
I think for someone who was born in Kentucky and reared in Southern Indiana and Southern Illinois, he was never around anything but a level of intensity on race that he probably didn’t ever see, wasn’t ever around white people who he could see accepting Black people as fully equal. That’s- … I do believe that.
Lex Fridman
And still, it is a country that where the words “All men are created equal” is on the page.
And still, it is a country that where the words “All men are created equal” is on the page.
Gary Gallagher
They’re right there on the page, waiting for that to be made good on. Yes, that’s correct. Well, it’s true. And Lincoln cha- I mean, Lincoln also was capable of growth.
They’re right there on the page, waiting for that to be made good on. Yes, that’s correct. Well, it’s true. And Lincoln cha- I mean, Lincoln also was capable of growth.
Lex Fridman
Well, he seemed to have evolved quite a lot in the years of the war.
Well, he seemed to have evolved quite a lot in the years of the war.
Gary Gallagher
He did. No, he did. He did.
He did. No, he did. He did.
Lex Fridman
And it’s very, very possible were he not assassinated, he would’ve arrived at a very different worldview.
And it’s very, very possible were he not assassinated, he would’ve arrived at a very different worldview.
Gary Gallagher
We’ll never know, but we do know that he was a lot smarter and a lot more adaptable and a lot more politically adept than Andrew Johnson, and so it certainly would’ve looked different. Well, it’s true.
We’ll never know, but we do know that he was a lot smarter and a lot more adaptable and a lot more politically adept than Andrew Johnson, and so it certainly would’ve looked different. Well, it’s true.
Lex Fridman
No, I just-
No, I just-
Best and Worst Presidents
Gary Gallagher
Yes, it is true.
Yes, it is true.
Lex Fridman
… I think I vaguely remember you saying somewhere that Andrew Johnson is the second worst president in America’s history.
… I think I vaguely remember you saying somewhere that Andrew Johnson is the second worst president in America’s history.
Gary Gallagher
Yeah, he’s right. He has… the glory of being above James Buchanan. I said that a few years ago, yes.
Yeah, he’s right. He has… the glory of being above James Buchanan. I said that a few years ago, yes.
Lex Fridman
I think you said something about Buchanan is… There’s like a basement, there’s like a basement below basement. I think-
I think you said something about Buchanan is… There’s like a basement, there’s like a basement below basement. I think-
Gary Gallagher
Sub-basement. He’s in the sub-basement.
Sub-basement. He’s in the sub-basement.
Lex Fridman
… He’s in the sub-basement. And this, this I put that in the category of the slime- … poetic commentary.
… He’s in the sub-basement. And this, this I put that in the category of the slime- … poetic commentary.
Gary Gallagher
He’s in a little corner of the sub-basement all by himself with one candle.
He’s in a little corner of the sub-basement all by himself with one candle.
Lex Fridman
So can we take that tiny tangent of why they were terrible pr- tangent on a tangent, why was Andrew Johnson such a terrible president, and Buchanan as well?
So can we take that tiny tangent of why they were terrible pr- tangent on a tangent, why was Andrew Johnson such a terrible president, and Buchanan as well?
Gary Gallagher
I think he was a terrible president because he was extremely prejudiced. He had all kinds of grievances stacked up. He had the poor white man’s grievance from being in a slavehold. He hates… His slaveholders were part of his enemies when he was growing up, then he embraced them after the war. He was… He couldn’t get beyond his most profound lifelong prejudices. He was not malleable in any way. He thought what he thought, and that’s what he was always gonna think. And he just was not the right be- person to be in place.
I think he was a terrible president because he was extremely prejudiced. He had all kinds of grievances stacked up. He had the poor white man’s grievance from being in a slavehold. He hates… His slaveholders were part of his enemies when he was growing up, then he embraced them after the war. He was… He couldn’t get beyond his most profound lifelong prejudices. He was not malleable in any way. He thought what he thought, and that’s what he was always gonna think. And he just was not the right be- person to be in place.
Lex Fridman
Well, why is Buchanan the worst president- … in America’s history?
Well, why is Buchanan the worst president- … in America’s history?
Gary Gallagher
If you had a dictionary that had the word hack in it, it should have a picture of James Buchanan by it. He was an absolute political hack- … who made his way up by staying alive and doing everything that you should do as a party hack as you went along. And then, oh, I ended up as president in 1856 because there’s a… The person I’m running against is from a party, this is the first time they’re running a candidate. His way of dealing with the secession crisis was basically hiding under his desk and hoping the roof didn’t fall in before he got out of Washington. He’s just, he’s just horrible.
If you had a dictionary that had the word hack in it, it should have a picture of James Buchanan by it. He was an absolute political hack- … who made his way up by staying alive and doing everything that you should do as a party hack as you went along. And then, oh, I ended up as president in 1856 because there’s a… The person I’m running against is from a party, this is the first time they’re running a candidate. His way of dealing with the secession crisis was basically hiding under his desk and hoping the roof didn’t fall in before he got out of Washington. He’s just, he’s just horrible.
Lex Fridman
I think from that I get a sense that what you admire in a leader and a president is a kind of backbone-
I think from that I get a sense that what you admire in a leader and a president is a kind of backbone-
Gary Gallagher
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
… to be able to, again, take risks and to stand behind political savvy, yes, but also a backbone behind that savvy.
… to be able to, again, take risks and to stand behind political savvy, yes, but also a backbone behind that savvy.
Gary Gallagher
Yes, and to actually change a position if you’re persuaded- … by both events and good counsel that you had the wrong position before. Go ahead and do that.
Yes, and to actually change a position if you’re persuaded- … by both events and good counsel that you had the wrong position before. Go ahead and do that.
Lex Fridman
So some kind of balance of a backbone behind principles and malleability based on the information, knowledge, and wisdom that you gain-
So some kind of balance of a backbone behind principles and malleability based on the information, knowledge, and wisdom that you gain-
Gary Gallagher
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
… versus for convenience or out of fear.
… versus for convenience or out of fear.
Gary Gallagher
There’s an apocryphal story about Lincoln that I think gets at his willingness to row against the tide if he needed to. He’s… They’re discussing something in a cabinet meeting, and he says, “Well, let’s vote. Let me get your sense.” And they went around the table, and every cabinet member voted no. And Lincoln said, “Well, that’s six nos and one yes. Mine, the ayes have it.” I mean, he’s… So he listened to them, and in that case, he’s willing to do something that’s unpopular and knows that he’s gonna get… But he’ll do it because… And that’s a quality not everybody has either.
There’s an apocryphal story about Lincoln that I think gets at his willingness to row against the tide if he needed to. He’s… They’re discussing something in a cabinet meeting, and he says, “Well, let’s vote. Let me get your sense.” And they went around the table, and every cabinet member voted no. And Lincoln said, “Well, that’s six nos and one yes. Mine, the ayes have it.” I mean, he’s… So he listened to them, and in that case, he’s willing to do something that’s unpopular and knows that he’s gonna get… But he’ll do it because… And that’s a quality not everybody has either.
Lex Fridman
Who’s the greatest president in the history of the United-
Who’s the greatest president in the history of the United-
Gary Gallagher
In my view?
In my view?
Lex Fridman
Yeah.
Yeah.
Gary Gallagher
In my view, it’s neck and neck with Washington and Lincoln. Without Washington, there’s no United States, so it’s sort of hard to go against him. He set all kinds of precedents that were really important.
In my view, it’s neck and neck with Washington and Lincoln. Without Washington, there’s no United States, so it’s sort of hard to go against him. He set all kinds of precedents that were really important.
Lex Fridman
Just giving away power.
Just giving away power.
Gary Gallagher
Twice. He did it twice. The Europeans couldn’t wrap their minds around that. He gave it away after the revolution. In other words, his message is, “I’m not Caesar. I’m not Cromwell. I’m not Napoleon.” There hadn’t been a Napoleon yet, but anyway, he wasn’t one. “I had power, and I gave it back.” And then he stepped down. He would’ve been president for life if he wanted to be. He did two terms. That’s enough. Let somebody else do it. Who does that?
Twice. He did it twice. The Europeans couldn’t wrap their minds around that. He gave it away after the revolution. In other words, his message is, “I’m not Caesar. I’m not Cromwell. I’m not Napoleon.” There hadn’t been a Napoleon yet, but anyway, he wasn’t one. “I had power, and I gave it back.” And then he stepped down. He would’ve been president for life if he wanted to be. He did two terms. That’s enough. Let somebody else do it. Who does that?
Gary Gallagher
But he embodies the notion of what… This is what a citizen soldier does. He comes forward at a time of crisis, he does his duty, and when the crisis is over, he is Cincinnatus. He goes back to his farm when this is over with, because the point is, he’d done what republic… small R republican virtue dictated, and then he went back. And that image was invoked over and over and over again. The small R repub- This has nothing to do with the Republican Party. Small R republican virtue of disinterested service to your republic. It’s… And Washington embodied that. He’s crucial. What’s always been fascinating to me, Lex, is you have this guy, he’s surrounded by this freakishly talented group of people in this little nation.
But he embodies the notion of what… This is what a citizen soldier does. He comes forward at a time of crisis, he does his duty, and when the crisis is over, he is Cincinnatus. He goes back to his farm when this is over with, because the point is, he’d done what republic… small R republican virtue dictated, and then he went back. And that image was invoked over and over and over again. The small R repub- This has nothing to do with the Republican Party. Small R republican virtue of disinterested service to your republic. It’s… And Washington embodied that. He’s crucial. What’s always been fascinating to me, Lex, is you have this guy, he’s surrounded by this freakishly talented group of people in this little nation.
Gary Gallagher
You have Madison and Hamilton and Jefferson and Franklin, all these people who are probably smarter than Washington. They’ve certainly read more Greek and Latin than Washington, and yet nobody’s concerned about who the man is.
You have Madison and Hamilton and Jefferson and Franklin, all these people who are probably smarter than Washington. They’ve certainly read more Greek and Latin than Washington, and yet nobody’s concerned about who the man is.
Gary Gallagher
It’s Washington. He’s the guy. We’re smarter. He’s… It’s like what Sherman said about Grant one time. Sherman’s smarter than Grant, probably. Sherman said, “I know more about strategy than Grant. I know more about tactics. I know more about supply. I know more about everything than U.S. Grant does. But where he beats me and where he beats the world is he don’t give a damn what the enemy is doing out of his sight, and that scares me like hell.” In other words, Grant could just let the background noise go away, focus on his thing, and do what he was gonna do, and Sherman couldn’t do that. Grant liberated Sherman to become a great general because he had Grant over him taking responsibility.
It’s Washington. He’s the guy. We’re smarter. He’s… It’s like what Sherman said about Grant one time. Sherman’s smarter than Grant, probably. Sherman said, “I know more about strategy than Grant. I know more about tactics. I know more about supply. I know more about everything than U.S. Grant does. But where he beats me and where he beats the world is he don’t give a damn what the enemy is doing out of his sight, and that scares me like hell.” In other words, Grant could just let the background noise go away, focus on his thing, and do what he was gonna do, and Sherman couldn’t do that. Grant liberated Sherman to become a great general because he had Grant over him taking responsibility.
Gary Gallagher
It’s really fascinating. And Washington, whatever faults he had, he could take responsibility, and was aware that he was setting precedents as the first president of this new republic almost every time he did something. It’s a precedent. What did Washington do? Well, he gave up his uniform, and then he gave up the presidency.
It’s really fascinating. And Washington, whatever faults he had, he could take responsibility, and was aware that he was setting precedents as the first president of this new republic almost every time he did something. It’s a precedent. What did Washington do? Well, he gave up his uniform, and then he gave up the presidency.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, just from studying history, understanding how difficult it is to give away power in the way that Washington did, I have to put him as the number one.
Yeah, just from studying history, understanding how difficult it is to give away power in the way that Washington did, I have to put him as the number one.
Gary Gallagher
Yeah, because without him, the rest doesn’t happen. I mean, that’s my bottom line on it, and I really do believe that. Without him, the rest doesn’t happen. I don’t know what… If they hadn’t had Washington to persuade people that a stronger central government might be possible because Washington’s gonna be president, who else would they agree could be trusted? There’s Washington, and then there’s everybody else.
Yeah, because without him, the rest doesn’t happen. I mean, that’s my bottom line on it, and I really do believe that. Without him, the rest doesn’t happen. I don’t know what… If they hadn’t had Washington to persuade people that a stronger central government might be possible because Washington’s gonna be president, who else would they agree could be trusted? There’s Washington, and then there’s everybody else.
Lex Fridman
And I think America’s a truly positive force in human history. So the fact that whatever ideas that were created at that time, and that Washington was the foundation of that is a great gift to humanity.
And I think America’s a truly positive force in human history. So the fact that whatever ideas that were created at that time, and that Washington was the foundation of that is a great gift to humanity.
Gary Gallagher
Lucky to have him, lucky to have Lincoln. We’ve been lucky in our leaders, Indy. We’re lucky to have FDR in World War II. I mean, we’ve been lucky to have- … people at moments of real crisis.
Lucky to have him, lucky to have Lincoln. We’ve been lucky in our leaders, Indy. We’re lucky to have FDR in World War II. I mean, we’ve been lucky to have- … people at moments of real crisis.
Lex Fridman
But we need the basement, too. We need, we need the full variety.
But we need the basement, too. We need, we need the full variety.
Gary Gallagher
Well, we’ve got them. And you never know when we might need a new sub-basement. That’s… So it’s just, it’s complicated and an ongoing story.
Well, we’ve got them. And you never know when we might need a new sub-basement. That’s… So it’s just, it’s complicated and an ongoing story.
Lex Fridman
Man, it is a beautiful theater, a beautiful drama, and I, like you, have faith in the resilience of the people to deal with the full mess of it. Quick bathroom break if it’s okay. I wanted to mention to you just as a plug but also as a big thank you that I don’t know how many hours, it must be maybe over 50 hours I’ve enjoyed listening to your Great Courses. So you have two on the American Civil War and on Robert E. Lee. And so I just wanted to mention this thing that I’ve been using. It’s called Plaud. So what I do is I run along the river, and then I’ll use this Plaud thing where you just press the button, and then you leave a note, like what I’m saying now is being recorded. And then it transcribed. Those notes are then transferred.
Man, it is a beautiful theater, a beautiful drama, and I, like you, have faith in the resilience of the people to deal with the full mess of it. Quick bathroom break if it’s okay. I wanted to mention to you just as a plug but also as a big thank you that I don’t know how many hours, it must be maybe over 50 hours I’ve enjoyed listening to your Great Courses. So you have two on the American Civil War and on Robert E. Lee. And so I just wanted to mention this thing that I’ve been using. It’s called Plaud. So what I do is I run along the river, and then I’ll use this Plaud thing where you just press the button, and then you leave a note, like what I’m saying now is being recorded. And then it transcribed. Those notes are then transferred.
Gary Gallagher
God, technology. Geez.
God, technology. Geez.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, this thing is great. So it’s great for just… It’s been running this whole time, too, so it’s transcribing automatically. It’s using AI to transcribe-
Yeah, this thing is great. So it’s great for just… It’s been running this whole time, too, so it’s transcribing automatically. It’s using AI to transcribe-
Gary Gallagher
Oh, so it’s doing every word, everything that we say?
Oh, so it’s doing every word, everything that we say?
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You know, transcribing it into text. And then it can summarize it for you, and then I organize and study the notes afterwards. This thing is great. Highly recommend it. It’s called Plaud.
Yeah. You know, transcribing it into text. And then it can summarize it for you, and then I organize and study the notes afterwards. This thing is great. Highly recommend it. It’s called Plaud.
Gary Gallagher
Plaud.
Plaud.
Lex Fridman
Plaud. It’s a clip.
Plaud. It’s a clip.
Gary Gallagher
I used to run around Town Lake or what was, I guess it’s Lady Bird Johnson Lake now. Is that what they call it? We used to run six miles a day at noon for years when I worked at the LBJ Library. We had a little group of us who went.
I used to run around Town Lake or what was, I guess it’s Lady Bird Johnson Lake now. Is that what they call it? We used to run six miles a day at noon for years when I worked at the LBJ Library. We had a little group of us who went.
Lex Fridman
Just run?
Just run?
Gary Gallagher
Just ran. We’d do it in… We would do six miles in 38 minutes.
Just ran. We’d do it in… We would do six miles in 38 minutes.
Lex Fridman
It’s actually a really hard problem to solve, of how to not take memory. I’m just really happy this exists. Okay. ‘Cause my smartphone was being a pain in the ass, like writing it down. It’s been a hard problem for me to solve. You listen to audiobooks or no? Or you just read?
It’s actually a really hard problem to solve, of how to not take memory. I’m just really happy this exists. Okay. ‘Cause my smartphone was being a pain in the ass, like writing it down. It’s been a hard problem for me to solve. You listen to audiobooks or no? Or you just read?
Gary Gallagher
All the time on my w- I walk… I don’t run anymore, but I walk six or seven miles a day, and I listen to audio, to Audible all the time. That’s what I do. I love Audible.
All the time on my w- I walk… I don’t run anymore, but I walk six or seven miles a day, and I listen to audio, to Audible all the time. That’s what I do. I love Audible.
Lex Fridman
Well, just out of curiosity, just take that tangent. Do you listen to, like, history books? Like what… Or do you wanna escape?
Well, just out of curiosity, just take that tangent. Do you listen to, like, history books? Like what… Or do you wanna escape?
Gary Gallagher
I listen to a mixture. I listen to some history books, but I also listen to some mysteries and some-
I listen to a mixture. I listen to some history books, but I also listen to some mysteries and some-
Lex Fridman
So fiction is also-
So fiction is also-
Gary Gallagher
Oh, fiction, oh yeah. Yeah, and some books that I think I should listen to and haven’t ever gotten around to reading. I did Moby-Dick that way.
Oh, fiction, oh yeah. Yeah, and some books that I think I should listen to and haven’t ever gotten around to reading. I did Moby-Dick that way.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. So the classics also?
Mm-hmm. So the classics also?
Gary Gallagher
Oh, yeah. But I’ve never read War and Peace, and I don’t think I ever will. I think… I would’ve done it by now if I was going to.
Oh, yeah. But I’ve never read War and Peace, and I don’t think I ever will. I think… I would’ve done it by now if I was going to.
Lex Fridman
We’re making a statement today. I like a person who’s not, not always, but I like short books.
We’re making a statement today. I like a person who’s not, not always, but I like short books.
Gary Gallagher
I do too. I write short books. A lot of long books would make good short books, and a lot of short books would make good essays, I think.
I do too. I write short books. A lot of long books would make good short books, and a lot of short books would make good essays, I think.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, can you… I’m sorry to be taking so many tangents ’cause you’ve written so many excellent books. How much of it is editing? Like how– or what does it take to write a good history book? What’s the process?
Yeah, can you… I’m sorry to be taking so many tangents ’cause you’ve written so many excellent books. How much of it is editing? Like how– or what does it take to write a good history book? What’s the process?
Gary Gallagher
Well, for me, it’s having either a question that you wanna answer or having some strain in the literature that you think is wrong, and you need to… For me, the Union War was trying to rescue something that I thought people just don’t understand anymore, is what union meant to that generation. It makes more sense… A war fought to end slavery makes sense to us now. That’s, of course, it’s a monstrous institution, fight a war, but that’s not what it was about for most of the people. And to get at what it was about is a harder pull, and explaining what union then meant to an era where it doesn’t mean anything. I mean, union as they understood it doesn’t– it’s not in our vocabulary anymore. It has to do with labor relations now.
Well, for me, it’s having either a question that you wanna answer or having some strain in the literature that you think is wrong, and you need to… For me, the Union War was trying to rescue something that I thought people just don’t understand anymore, is what union meant to that generation. It makes more sense… A war fought to end slavery makes sense to us now. That’s, of course, it’s a monstrous institution, fight a war, but that’s not what it was about for most of the people. And to get at what it was about is a harder pull, and explaining what union then meant to an era where it doesn’t mean anything. I mean, union as they understood it doesn’t– it’s not in our vocabulary anymore. It has to do with labor relations now.
Gary Gallagher
But to say, “What is– but what does the concept of union mean?” Get crickets.
But to say, “What is– but what does the concept of union mean?” Get crickets.
Lex Fridman
Is it basically a strong sense of nation? So, like, what… Can we just kinda pull that apart? So there’s different states, and uh, Americans have always had a sense of, like, “I’m from this state” pride-
Is it basically a strong sense of nation? So, like, what… Can we just kinda pull that apart? So there’s different states, and uh, Americans have always had a sense of, like, “I’m from this state” pride-
Gary Gallagher
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Lex Fridman
… being from the state.
… being from the state.
Gary Gallagher
You have different loyalties. You have a state pride and a, and maybe even a regional pride. I think… I wrote a little book where I talked about Robert E. Lee in that regard as part of it, where he has a sense of loyalty to the nation, to the state, to the slaveholding South, and so forth. But union, I mean, it’s composed of individual states which engender loyalties among the people who live in them, but the parts make a greater whole, and that’s what the union is, and you have to have the whole- To get all the benefits.
You have different loyalties. You have a state pride and a, and maybe even a regional pride. I think… I wrote a little book where I talked about Robert E. Lee in that regard as part of it, where he has a sense of loyalty to the nation, to the state, to the slaveholding South, and so forth. But union, I mean, it’s composed of individual states which engender loyalties among the people who live in them, but the parts make a greater whole, and that’s what the union is, and you have to have the whole- To get all the benefits.
Gary Gallagher
Because … And that is what people thought then, and they tied it to the revolution, of course, and tied it to earlier sacrifice, and tie- They had an eye on what’s going on in Europe. I mean, the Western world was their world. They didn’t care that much about the rest of the world. But the Western world, what’s going on there, and I think they believed things were going the wrong way in much of Europe, that the, all the revolutionary fervor of the 1840s had seemed to run into a cliff of oligarchy and aristocracy and monarchy, and they saw the US as a bulwark against that for small D democracy.
Because … And that is what people thought then, and they tied it to the revolution, of course, and tied it to earlier sacrifice, and tie- They had an eye on what’s going on in Europe. I mean, the Western world was their world. They didn’t care that much about the rest of the world. But the Western world, what’s going on there, and I think they believed things were going the wrong way in much of Europe, that the, all the revolutionary fervor of the 1840s had seemed to run into a cliff of oligarchy and aristocracy and monarchy, and they saw the US as a bulwark against that for small D democracy.
Lex Fridman
I think having a faith in nation is a beautiful thing. It’s a narrative that unites a people. And I think that in itself has power. It’s not … You can make an economic argument, you can make a freedom argument, all these arguments you can make, but I think what makes a nation is a bunch of people believing in a narrative. It’s like what makes a great company. There’s a mission. The power of humans when you together believe in a thing is remarkable. And so that belief in itself is really powerful.
I think having a faith in nation is a beautiful thing. It’s a narrative that unites a people. And I think that in itself has power. It’s not … You can make an economic argument, you can make a freedom argument, all these arguments you can make, but I think what makes a nation is a bunch of people believing in a narrative. It’s like what makes a great company. There’s a mission. The power of humans when you together believe in a thing is remarkable. And so that belief in itself is really powerful.
Gary Gallagher
That clearly was there among many, many, many, many. Not everybody, of course, but it was widespread. And Lincoln articulated it- … perfectly, and he did it again and again, talking about give the … You wanna give a person a chance to rise, a person… And talking about the last best hope of Earth, and talking… I mean, he got it, and he distilled it, and he conveyed it. And it’s not as if he’s telling people things they don’t already know, but he’s reaffirming things in ways that are eloquent and memorable.
That clearly was there among many, many, many, many. Not everybody, of course, but it was widespread. And Lincoln articulated it- … perfectly, and he did it again and again, talking about give the … You wanna give a person a chance to rise, a person… And talking about the last best hope of Earth, and talking… I mean, he got it, and he distilled it, and he conveyed it. And it’s not as if he’s telling people things they don’t already know, but he’s reaffirming things in ways that are eloquent and memorable.
Lex Fridman
Quick ten-second thank you to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to the conversation.
Quick ten-second thank you to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to the conversation.
Robert E. Lee
Lex Fridman
All right. So we were talking about-
All right. So we were talking about-
Gary Gallagher
Where are we?
Where are we?
Lex Fridman
… Antietam.
… Antietam.
Gary Gallagher
Okay.
Okay.
Lex Fridman
And how that was the moment when the Union realized-
And how that was the moment when the Union realized-
Gary Gallagher
Preliminary Proclamation…
Preliminary Proclamation…
Lex Fridman
… Preliminary Proclamation, where it’s like, okay, slavery has to be a thing as a central part- … of the Civil War. And so where does that take us? Also very bloody battle. The generals, McClellan, the end of the McClellan chapter, and that takes us to Fredericksburg. So what happened at Fredericksburg?
… Preliminary Proclamation, where it’s like, okay, slavery has to be a thing as a central part- … of the Civil War. And so where does that take us? Also very bloody battle. The generals, McClellan, the end of the McClellan chapter, and that takes us to Fredericksburg. So what happened at Fredericksburg?
Gary Gallagher
Fredericksburg was a … It’s another victory for Lee. It’s an easy victory for Lee. He has a very strong position on high ground across the Rappahannock River from the Union forces, who are opposite Fredericksburg. His opponent is a guy named Ambrose Everett Burnside, who’s a very affable guy, kind of a nice guy, who gave us the word sideburns. He wore his whiskers that came down and came up and made, and- … it wasn’t a beard, and they were called burnsides at the time. The burnside cut, which was transposed into sideburns. Everybody liked him. He just wasn’t very bright in some ways. He became … He’s a politician after the war, so he went into the right field, but he was- His idea at Fredericksburg-
Fredericksburg was a … It’s another victory for Lee. It’s an easy victory for Lee. He has a very strong position on high ground across the Rappahannock River from the Union forces, who are opposite Fredericksburg. His opponent is a guy named Ambrose Everett Burnside, who’s a very affable guy, kind of a nice guy, who gave us the word sideburns. He wore his whiskers that came down and came up and made, and- … it wasn’t a beard, and they were called burnsides at the time. The burnside cut, which was transposed into sideburns. Everybody liked him. He just wasn’t very bright in some ways. He became … He’s a politician after the war, so he went into the right field, but he was- His idea at Fredericksburg-
Gary Gallagher
… was to, in the end, it wasn’t his original plan, but he ended up launching frontal assaults one brigade at a time against very strongly entrenched Confederates, and it was a butchery for … And another horrible defeat for the Army of the Potomac. Lincoln was really cast down by it, and it just seemed that in this Eastern theater, he could not get any good news. He’s getting good news from the West. He’s not getting any good news here, and he has this revolving door of commanders. Burnside tried another march in late January 1863. He was gonna get around Lee’s flank, but he had horrible weather. His army literally got stuck in the mud. Then it was lampooned as the Mud March, and he removed him from command.
… was to, in the end, it wasn’t his original plan, but he ended up launching frontal assaults one brigade at a time against very strongly entrenched Confederates, and it was a butchery for … And another horrible defeat for the Army of the Potomac. Lincoln was really cast down by it, and it just seemed that in this Eastern theater, he could not get any good news. He’s getting good news from the West. He’s not getting any good news here, and he has this revolving door of commanders. Burnside tried another march in late January 1863. He was gonna get around Lee’s flank, but he had horrible weather. His army literally got stuck in the mud. Then it was lampooned as the Mud March, and he removed him from command.
Gary Gallagher
So now he has another commander in the Army of the Potomac. So you’ve had McClellan and Burnside, and now a guy named Joseph Hooker. You have no continuity at the top in that army. You have complete continuity at the top in the Army of Northern Virginia, which is a huge advantage to the Army of Northern Virginia.
So now he has another commander in the Army of the Potomac. So you’ve had McClellan and Burnside, and now a guy named Joseph Hooker. You have no continuity at the top in that army. You have complete continuity at the top in the Army of Northern Virginia, which is a huge advantage to the Army of Northern Virginia.
Lex Fridman
So this is where the famous words of Robert E. Lee were … He was watching the slaughter. He said that “It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it.” What did he mean by that?
So this is where the famous words of Robert E. Lee were … He was watching the slaughter. He said that “It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it.” What did he mean by that?
Gary Gallagher
He was getting… I mean, he was watching his soldiers butcher Union soldiers and, I guess, kind of enjoying it. He’s in a really strong position with really guard artillery supporting his infantry, and the Union troops are just attacking them and not having any success. And so there he is. He’s up there with James Longstreet and other people and watching it. And he, unlike McClellan, was willing to risk, obviously, piling up casualties in every battle. Didn’t have that many at Fredericksburg. There were about 12 and a half thousand US casualties at Fredericksburg and about 5,500 Confederate casualties because they were so well-protected in their defensive lines.
He was getting… I mean, he was watching his soldiers butcher Union soldiers and, I guess, kind of enjoying it. He’s in a really strong position with really guard artillery supporting his infantry, and the Union troops are just attacking them and not having any success. And so there he is. He’s up there with James Longstreet and other people and watching it. And he, unlike McClellan, was willing to risk, obviously, piling up casualties in every battle. Didn’t have that many at Fredericksburg. There were about 12 and a half thousand US casualties at Fredericksburg and about 5,500 Confederate casualties because they were so well-protected in their defensive lines.
Lex Fridman
So you are working on a manuscript on Chancellorsville. It’s a legendary battle for many reasons. Can you break down some of the military details of what made up that battle to give us a sense of, in general, what battles were like?
So you are working on a manuscript on Chancellorsville. It’s a legendary battle for many reasons. Can you break down some of the military details of what made up that battle to give us a sense of, in general, what battles were like?
Gary Gallagher
This is often described as Lee’s most successful battle. It’s him against Joseph Hooker. It’s the last battle that Lee and Jackson fought as a team, Lee and Stonewall Jackson, with Stonewall Jackson as his principal subordinate. Hooker had replaced Burnside. Hooker had maneuvered to get rid of Burnside. He wanted to be in commander of the army. He had made a statement that he said what the nation needed was a dictator to make sure it won. And Lincoln, one of the best letters a president ever wrote to a military commander, Lincoln wrote to Hooker, and he said basically, “I know everything you’re saying.
This is often described as Lee’s most successful battle. It’s him against Joseph Hooker. It’s the last battle that Lee and Jackson fought as a team, Lee and Stonewall Jackson, with Stonewall Jackson as his principal subordinate. Hooker had replaced Burnside. Hooker had maneuvered to get rid of Burnside. He wanted to be in commander of the army. He had made a statement that he said what the nation needed was a dictator to make sure it won. And Lincoln, one of the best letters a president ever wrote to a military commander, Lincoln wrote to Hooker, and he said basically, “I know everything you’re saying.
Gary Gallagher
You’re talking about all the things you’re gonna do.” And he said that, “The only way you get to be a dictator is if you have victories, and I’m willing to risk a dictatorship to get victories. And so I know I’ve got you figured out, Joe,” he’s saying, and he did. Hooker made a lot of blustery talk. He got a … He had a great start. He built the army into what he called the greatest army on the planet, about 135,000 men, beautifully supplied, reorganized the medical service in it. He did everything that you should do to get an army in shape, and then he started a campaign. His plan, Lee was still at Fredericksburg. He was gonna get around Lee’s left flank, come in behind him, force Lee to either retreat to Richmond or fight him on unfavorable ground.
You’re talking about all the things you’re gonna do.” And he said that, “The only way you get to be a dictator is if you have victories, and I’m willing to risk a dictatorship to get victories. And so I know I’ve got you figured out, Joe,” he’s saying, and he did. Hooker made a lot of blustery talk. He got a … He had a great start. He built the army into what he called the greatest army on the planet, about 135,000 men, beautifully supplied, reorganized the medical service in it. He did everything that you should do to get an army in shape, and then he started a campaign. His plan, Lee was still at Fredericksburg. He was gonna get around Lee’s left flank, come in behind him, force Lee to either retreat to Richmond or fight him on unfavorable ground.
Gary Gallagher
Everything went well with Hooker. He got going in late April until the moment of truth came. The moment of truth came on May 1st, 1863, when Lee, instead of retreating, left part of his army to watch one part of Hooker’s and turned around to meet Hooker head-on near a crossroads called Chancellorsville a few miles west of Fredericksburg. And as soon as the fighting started, McClellan lost his nerve-
Everything went well with Hooker. He got going in late April until the moment of truth came. The moment of truth came on May 1st, 1863, when Lee, instead of retreating, left part of his army to watch one part of Hooker’s and turned around to meet Hooker head-on near a crossroads called Chancellorsville a few miles west of Fredericksburg. And as soon as the fighting started, McClellan lost his nerve-
Gary Gallagher
… pulled into a defensive position. And the upshot was after Lee and Jackson carried off a very successful flank attack, although it left Mc- Hooker still in a very strong position, Hooker in the end retreated, and it was another victory for Lee in a battle he never, ever should have won. He was outnumbered two to one, 135,000 to about 64,000. And when the moment of truth came, Joseph Hooker just lost his nerve. I mean, I really do believe that. I had fun working on this book. I wrote a … A lot of books on campaigns are very long and detailed. I wanted a short book that would introduce interested readers who didn’t really know that much perhaps to … There’s one of the maps.
… pulled into a defensive position. And the upshot was after Lee and Jackson carried off a very successful flank attack, although it left Mc- Hooker still in a very strong position, Hooker in the end retreated, and it was another victory for Lee in a battle he never, ever should have won. He was outnumbered two to one, 135,000 to about 64,000. And when the moment of truth came, Joseph Hooker just lost his nerve. I mean, I really do believe that. I had fun working on this book. I wrote a … A lot of books on campaigns are very long and detailed. I wanted a short book that would introduce interested readers who didn’t really know that much perhaps to … There’s one of the maps.
Lex Fridman
So there are different, there’s different positions, the different troops’ positions. There’s Hooker.
So there are different, there’s different positions, the different troops’ positions. There’s Hooker.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. That is the … The battle played out on May 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. There’s the opening of the campaign. See the Rappahannock River, Fredericksburg. The armies are facing each other there. Hooker’s plan was to leave part of his army to hold Lee’s attention and move the rest up the river, up the Rappahannock, cross the Rappahannock and then the Rapidan, and get behind Lee so that Lee would be caught in a vise.
Yes. That is the … The battle played out on May 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. There’s the opening of the campaign. See the Rappahannock River, Fredericksburg. The armies are facing each other there. Hooker’s plan was to leave part of his army to hold Lee’s attention and move the rest up the river, up the Rappahannock, cross the Rappahannock and then the Rapidan, and get behind Lee so that Lee would be caught in a vise.
Gary Gallagher
He’d have Hooker in his rear and the anvil of other Union troops at Fredericksburg, and he thought that that would force Lee to retreat toward Richmond and that he could then harass him. They get around, they get behind Lee. They do exactly what Hooker wanted to do. He got to Chancellorsville. He had more than 70,000 men at Chancellorsville, and Lee doesn’t find out till the very end of April what’s going on, and then he decides to divide his army, leave 10,000 men to watch 40,000 Federals at Fredericksburg, and he and Stonewall Jackson head back toward Chancellorsville to meet Hooker. And they meet on May the 1st. The fighting starts on May the 1st. Everybody’s upbeat in the Army of the Potomac. They’ve gotten around Lee’s flank. They know they’re behind him.
He’d have Hooker in his rear and the anvil of other Union troops at Fredericksburg, and he thought that that would force Lee to retreat toward Richmond and that he could then harass him. They get around, they get behind Lee. They do exactly what Hooker wanted to do. He got to Chancellorsville. He had more than 70,000 men at Chancellorsville, and Lee doesn’t find out till the very end of April what’s going on, and then he decides to divide his army, leave 10,000 men to watch 40,000 Federals at Fredericksburg, and he and Stonewall Jackson head back toward Chancellorsville to meet Hooker. And they meet on May the 1st. The fighting starts on May the 1st. Everybody’s upbeat in the Army of the Potomac. They’ve gotten around Lee’s flank. They know they’re behind him.
Gary Gallagher
Everything seems to go very well. Hooker said, “This is it. We’ve done it. We’ve done exactly what I wanted to do.” And then the fighting starts the next day on May 1st. They march toward that place called Zoan Church. You can see there, it’s just a little bit east of Chancellorsville. And the fighting, they collide about 11:00 in the morning. 2:00 that afternoon, Hooker orders a retreat. Everybody retreats back into this wilderness. It’s a kind of cut-over, woodsy area that it has very few roads, and he just hunkers down around Chancellorsville, hands the initiative to Lee. The next day, Jackson and Lee decide to send Jackson all the way around the right flank, and you see the flank march there.
Everything seems to go very well. Hooker said, “This is it. We’ve done it. We’ve done exactly what I wanted to do.” And then the fighting starts the next day on May 1st. They march toward that place called Zoan Church. You can see there, it’s just a little bit east of Chancellorsville. And the fighting, they collide about 11:00 in the morning. 2:00 that afternoon, Hooker orders a retreat. Everybody retreats back into this wilderness. It’s a kind of cut-over, woodsy area that it has very few roads, and he just hunkers down around Chancellorsville, hands the initiative to Lee. The next day, Jackson and Lee decide to send Jackson all the way around the right flank, and you see the flank march there.
Gary Gallagher
They come, they strike a Union corps that’s exposed, commanded by a man named Oliver Otis Howard. Howard University is named after him. He headed the Freedmen’s Bureau later in the war. They strike, they crush the 11th Corps, which has a very high German element in it, and there’s a lot of ethnic prejudice that comes into play there by the other soldiers. But the, it ends up, the day ends up with Lee actually in worse shape than he was before. He’s got two divisions over here under Anderson and McLaws on the lower right. He’s not even in touch with Jackson’s corps. Jackson was wounded that night by his own men, carried from the field. He’d die a few days later. And Hooker still, although Hooker is in between these two parts of Lee’s army, he’s in an ideal position.
They come, they strike a Union corps that’s exposed, commanded by a man named Oliver Otis Howard. Howard University is named after him. He headed the Freedmen’s Bureau later in the war. They strike, they crush the 11th Corps, which has a very high German element in it, and there’s a lot of ethnic prejudice that comes into play there by the other soldiers. But the, it ends up, the day ends up with Lee actually in worse shape than he was before. He’s got two divisions over here under Anderson and McLaws on the lower right. He’s not even in touch with Jackson’s corps. Jackson was wounded that night by his own men, carried from the field. He’d die a few days later. And Hooker still, although Hooker is in between these two parts of Lee’s army, he’s in an ideal position.
Gary Gallagher
He’s still just thinking about the defense even. Where on the morning of May 3rd, the two parts of Lee’s army fight their way together around the Chancellorsville- … clearing, and Hooker then retreats toward the north. You have this amazing moment on May the 3rd where Hooker, who’s been stunned by an artillery round that hit a pillar he was leaning against at Chancellorsville-
He’s still just thinking about the defense even. Where on the morning of May 3rd, the two parts of Lee’s army fight their way together around the Chancellorsville- … clearing, and Hooker then retreats toward the north. You have this amazing moment on May the 3rd where Hooker, who’s been stunned by an artillery round that hit a pillar he was leaning against at Chancellorsville-
Gary Gallagher
… he had a concussion. He was vomiting. He retreated to the rear. And as the Union troops retreated from that clearing near Chancellorsville, Lee’s army had fought itself together, and Lee rode into the middle of his troops. And there was this amazing moment when this spontaneous outpouring of emotion on the part of the Confederates, that’s the moment when Lee and his men finished this period of bonding this year that was unmatched in the Civil War. See, there’s no way Lee should’ve won this battle.
… he had a concussion. He was vomiting. He retreated to the rear. And as the Union troops retreated from that clearing near Chancellorsville, Lee’s army had fought itself together, and Lee rode into the middle of his troops. And there was this amazing moment when this spontaneous outpouring of emotion on the part of the Confederates, that’s the moment when Lee and his men finished this period of bonding this year that was unmatched in the Civil War. See, there’s no way Lee should’ve won this battle.
Gary Gallagher
There’s one more day of action a little farther to the, to the east. But in the end, Hooker retreats. He never should’ve retreated. He was in an impregnable position, but he did retreat. And Lincoln was absolutely beside himself after this. He just couldn’t … Everybody knew what the numbers were. The newspapers had talked about it-
There’s one more day of action a little farther to the, to the east. But in the end, Hooker retreats. He never should’ve retreated. He was in an impregnable position, but he did retreat. And Lincoln was absolutely beside himself after this. He just couldn’t … Everybody knew what the numbers were. The newspapers had talked about it-
Gary Gallagher
… that Lee had only half as many men as Hooker, and once again, the Army of the Potomac, the largest and most important army of the Republic, has been defeated by this smaller army. It, Lee’s sort of legend in the North grew and in the South. He became, by this point, he and his army were the most important national institution in the Confederacy. People looked to them to see whether indep- It’s like Washington and the Continental Army during the Revolution. If they’re still in the field, there’s still a chance for victory. This cemented that position for Lee, this victory at Chancellorsville did, in the minds of Confederates, and made him a kind of bugaboo to people in the North. They were just thirsty for someone to defeat Lee and capture Richmond.
… that Lee had only half as many men as Hooker, and once again, the Army of the Potomac, the largest and most important army of the Republic, has been defeated by this smaller army. It, Lee’s sort of legend in the North grew and in the South. He became, by this point, he and his army were the most important national institution in the Confederacy. People looked to them to see whether indep- It’s like Washington and the Continental Army during the Revolution. If they’re still in the field, there’s still a chance for victory. This cemented that position for Lee, this victory at Chancellorsville did, in the minds of Confederates, and made him a kind of bugaboo to people in the North. They were just thirsty for someone to defeat Lee and capture Richmond.
Lex Fridman
So this, in some sense, created the legend of Robert E. Lee.
So this, in some sense, created the legend of Robert E. Lee.
Gary Gallagher
It certainly helped solidi- Yes, it did. It went a long way toward doing it. A long way.
It certainly helped solidi- Yes, it did. It went a long way toward doing it. A long way.
Lex Fridman
So you write about, you know, the difference between sort of reality and memory. How does the North remember this battle, and how does the South remember this battle?
So you write about, you know, the difference between sort of reality and memory. How does the North remember this battle, and how does the South remember this battle?
Gary Gallagher
It’s really fascinating. The North remembers this battle by not remembering it very much.
It’s really fascinating. The North remembers this battle by not remembering it very much.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, ignoring it.
Yeah, ignoring it.
Gary Gallagher
They sort of airbrush it out of their memory of the war. The Confederates, in the iconography of the Lost Cause, this … Lee and Jackson had their last meeting ever here just before the fighting on May 2nd got going, and there was a famous painting of that done by an artist named Julio that was then reprinted as a lithograph that hung in innumerable homes and offices and courthouses in the South. It’s Lee and Jackson at high tide, kind of. Gettysburg hasn’t happened, never mind Appomattox. These are the two greatest Confederate soldiers at their greatest moment of success. It became hugely important in the Lost Cause telling of the war. On the Union side, they didn’t wanna talk about Joseph Hooker that much. They had … They’d rather talk about other things.
They sort of airbrush it out of their memory of the war. The Confederates, in the iconography of the Lost Cause, this … Lee and Jackson had their last meeting ever here just before the fighting on May 2nd got going, and there was a famous painting of that done by an artist named Julio that was then reprinted as a lithograph that hung in innumerable homes and offices and courthouses in the South. It’s Lee and Jackson at high tide, kind of. Gettysburg hasn’t happened, never mind Appomattox. These are the two greatest Confederate soldiers at their greatest moment of success. It became hugely important in the Lost Cause telling of the war. On the Union side, they didn’t wanna talk about Joseph Hooker that much. They had … They’d rather talk about other things.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s probably one of the most humiliating battles of the war from the Union side.
Yeah, it’s probably one of the most humiliating battles of the war from the Union side.
Gary Gallagher
I think it’s really just amazing that Hooker lost this. And it shows the complete dominance of one personality over another personality, in my view.
I think it’s really just amazing that Hooker lost this. And it shows the complete dominance of one personality over another personality, in my view.
Lex Fridman
So Stonewall Jackson was shot, killed.
So Stonewall Jackson was shot, killed.
Gary Gallagher
Shot by his own men, out trying to reconnoiter and keep the battle going and exploit his successes, carried back to the rear, and he died on May 10th, died eight days later.
Shot by his own men, out trying to reconnoiter and keep the battle going and exploit his successes, carried back to the rear, and he died on May 10th, died eight days later.
Lex Fridman
So what impact did that have, Stonewall Jackson’s death?
So what impact did that have, Stonewall Jackson’s death?
Gary Gallagher
Well, that had a hu- That, there was unbelievable mourning across the Confederacy about that, and even since, really interesting, even some positive comments in the North about how he’d been a sor- He was misguided, but a very religious guy and all of this stuff, but they’re quietly very, “That’s really good news for the United States that Stonewall Jackson is dead, and really bad news for the Confederacy.”
Well, that had a hu- That, there was unbelievable mourning across the Confederacy about that, and even since, really interesting, even some positive comments in the North about how he’d been a sor- He was misguided, but a very religious guy and all of this stuff, but they’re quietly very, “That’s really good news for the United States that Stonewall Jackson is dead, and really bad news for the Confederacy.”
Lex Fridman
Outside the myth, did it actually have a practical impact on the war?
Outside the myth, did it actually have a practical impact on the war?
Gary Gallagher
I don’t think so, and the people who love Stonewall Jackson would disagree with me, but I don’t see where he would’ve … He was a very good soldier at what he did, and Lee used him very well, and they were a good partnership, but I don’t see how he would’ve changed the larger contours of the war. I don’t.
I don’t think so, and the people who love Stonewall Jackson would disagree with me, but I don’t see where he would’ve … He was a very good soldier at what he did, and Lee used him very well, and they were a good partnership, but I don’t see how he would’ve changed the larger contours of the war. I don’t.
Lex Fridman
If we zoom out and look at Robert E. Lee, somebody you’ve written about quite a bit, studied a lot, do you think we can use this battle to try to understand the military genius of the man and, in general, who he was?
If we zoom out and look at Robert E. Lee, somebody you’ve written about quite a bit, studied a lot, do you think we can use this battle to try to understand the military genius of the man and, in general, who he was?
Gary Gallagher
I do, and it shows both why he was successful and why some of the reasons he was successful opened the way for what should’ve been big defeats but didn’t. I mean, Lee’s personality was, at heart, aggressive. His first impulse was always to take the war to the opponent. He said, “They outnumber us. If we just sit and wait for them to come to us, they’re gonna have all the advantages. We need to try to disrupt them and look for openings.”
I do, and it shows both why he was successful and why some of the reasons he was successful opened the way for what should’ve been big defeats but didn’t. I mean, Lee’s personality was, at heart, aggressive. His first impulse was always to take the war to the opponent. He said, “They outnumber us. If we just sit and wait for them to come to us, they’re gonna have all the advantages. We need to try to disrupt them and look for openings.”
Gary Gallagher
What this campaign showed was his audacity. He divided his army three times in the course of this campaign in the face of a much more powerful opponent, which showed his audacity. It also highlighted the overall culture that he created in his army, which was a culture of risk-taking, of seeking to inflict the greatest possible harm on your opponent. It’s the antithesis of the culture that McClellan created in the Army of the Potomac, which is a culture of caution, of not taking risks, of not doing anything until everything is just right.
What this campaign showed was his audacity. He divided his army three times in the course of this campaign in the face of a much more powerful opponent, which showed his audacity. It also highlighted the overall culture that he created in his army, which was a culture of risk-taking, of seeking to inflict the greatest possible harm on your opponent. It’s the antithesis of the culture that McClellan created in the Army of the Potomac, which is a culture of caution, of not taking risks, of not doing anything until everything is just right.
Gary Gallagher
Any adult knows everything is never just right, so if you’re waiting for that, you’ll never do anything. The two cultures are absolutely antithetical to one another, and in the end, it shows Lee and how what he had accomplished, he had created an army that was willing to absorb casualties because it won all the time.
Any adult knows everything is never just right, so if you’re waiting for that, you’ll never do anything. The two cultures are absolutely antithetical to one another, and in the end, it shows Lee and how what he had accomplished, he had created an army that was willing to absorb casualties because it won all the time.
Gary Gallagher
And they realized that that was, they believed, making it more likely that their whole war effort would be successful. There are only a few times during the war where you get a scene like you got on May 3rd, where this whole army sees the old man ride into their midst, basically, and just has this … I think they decided at that point, the soldiers, that he was always gonna win, and Lee looked at them and thought, “They can do whatever I ask them to do.” I think if you wanna understand Gettysburg, if you wanna understand Pickett’s Charge, you need to look back to May 3rd at Chancellorsville, when Lee just decided that his infantry could do anything he wanted them to do.
And they realized that that was, they believed, making it more likely that their whole war effort would be successful. There are only a few times during the war where you get a scene like you got on May 3rd, where this whole army sees the old man ride into their midst, basically, and just has this … I think they decided at that point, the soldiers, that he was always gonna win, and Lee looked at them and thought, “They can do whatever I ask them to do.” I think if you wanna understand Gettysburg, if you wanna understand Pickett’s Charge, you need to look back to May 3rd at Chancellorsville, when Lee just decided that his infantry could do anything he wanted them to do.
Lex Fridman
But also from the infantry perspective, they believed in the-
But also from the infantry perspective, they believed in the-
Gary Gallagher
You asked me earlier about what did the soldiers’ letters say. The letters from Lee’s army, they absolutely didn’t even contemplate losing to the Army of the Potomac. I mean, they just didn’t think- They didn’t think they would lose to it.
You asked me earlier about what did the soldiers’ letters say. The letters from Lee’s army, they absolutely didn’t even contemplate losing to the Army of the Potomac. I mean, they just didn’t think- They didn’t think they would lose to it.
Lex Fridman
What do you attribute that to? Is that, does it, Robert E. Lee, to him?
What do you attribute that to? Is that, does it, Robert E. Lee, to him?
Gary Gallagher
It’s to Lee and the fact that they won these victories under Lee, and that they took these chances, and everybody tried. And they always knew that they were outnumbered, and yet they were still winning. The closest the numbers had ever been at the seven days when the armies were about the same size, but after that, Lee is always at a significant disadvantage in numbers, and yet he seems to be victorious.
It’s to Lee and the fact that they won these victories under Lee, and that they took these chances, and everybody tried. And they always knew that they were outnumbered, and yet they were still winning. The closest the numbers had ever been at the seven days when the armies were about the same size, but after that, Lee is always at a significant disadvantage in numbers, and yet he seems to be victorious.
Lex Fridman
So Lee’s aggressiveness, like you’ve mentioned, produced also staggering casualties.
So Lee’s aggressiveness, like you’ve mentioned, produced also staggering casualties.
Gary Gallagher
Staggering casualties. He lost 13,000 men here, and Hooker about 17,500. A much higher proportion of Lee’s army than Hooker lost in his army. But this should’ve been a disaster for Lee. Hooker should have crushed Lee here. Absolutely should have crushed Lee, but he didn’t.
Staggering casualties. He lost 13,000 men here, and Hooker about 17,500. A much higher proportion of Lee’s army than Hooker lost in his army. But this should’ve been a disaster for Lee. Hooker should have crushed Lee here. Absolutely should have crushed Lee, but he didn’t.
Lex Fridman
So there’s two cases: Lee’s audacity being the South’s best hope of winning the war, but the other case is he was actually bleeding the South dry.
So there’s two cases: Lee’s audacity being the South’s best hope of winning the war, but the other case is he was actually bleeding the South dry.
Gary Gallagher
Yes, and historians have criticized him for not just being on the defensive all the time. I think Lee understood better than many of his critics now understand that the key was Northern civilian opinion. He said it more than once, “If we win victories, it will depress their morale. If their morale is depressed, the Democrats will do better. If the Democrats get into office, it’s good for the Confederacy.” And he also knew that he was … It’s a race between, “Am I gonna run out of men before they run out of morale-
Yes, and historians have criticized him for not just being on the defensive all the time. I think Lee understood better than many of his critics now understand that the key was Northern civilian opinion. He said it more than once, “If we win victories, it will depress their morale. If their morale is depressed, the Democrats will do better. If the Democrats get into office, it’s good for the Confederacy.” And he also knew that he was … It’s a race between, “Am I gonna run out of men before they run out of morale-
Gary Gallagher
… in the United States?” I think he understood that, and I think that was the best chance for the Confederacy to win. And in the end, I’m very happy to report, the Confederacy ran out of men before the Union ran out of morale. And so the war went the way it did. But I think Lee was very perceptive in that regard. He understood how important politically what happened militarily was.
… in the United States?” I think he understood that, and I think that was the best chance for the Confederacy to win. And in the end, I’m very happy to report, the Confederacy ran out of men before the Union ran out of morale. And so the war went the way it did. But I think Lee was very perceptive in that regard. He understood how important politically what happened militarily was.
Gary Gallagher
Much better understanding of that than a lot of people had at the time, and better understanding, I think, than a lot of historians have now. And this is a horrible time for the US because behind the lines, people are in ra- Democrats are unhappy with the Emancipation Proclamation. Just two months before this, Congress passed the Conscription Act. Democrats are very unhappy about that. They’re saying that Lincoln is a tyrant. He’s forcing people into a war that’s not the war they wanted to fight anyway. Union morale is very fragile. Morale, civilian morale at this point, and this makes it much, much worse. The draft riots in New York City, the first draft numbers were pulled in New York City in July.
Much better understanding of that than a lot of people had at the time, and better understanding, I think, than a lot of historians have now. And this is a horrible time for the US because behind the lines, people are in ra- Democrats are unhappy with the Emancipation Proclamation. Just two months before this, Congress passed the Conscription Act. Democrats are very unhappy about that. They’re saying that Lincoln is a tyrant. He’s forcing people into a war that’s not the war they wanted to fight anyway. Union morale is very fragile. Morale, civilian morale at this point, and this makes it much, much worse. The draft riots in New York City, the first draft numbers were pulled in New York City in July.
Gary Gallagher
The draft riots come right after Gettysburg, but that is symptomatic of what morale … Desertions went up in the Army of the Potomac after the Emancipation Proclamation.
The draft riots come right after Gettysburg, but that is symptomatic of what morale … Desertions went up in the Army of the Potomac after the Emancipation Proclamation.
Lex Fridman
So at this point, the Confederacy is arguably very close to winning the war.
So at this point, the Confederacy is arguably very close to winning the war.
Gary Gallagher
I think this is one of the more optimistic points for the Confederacy, is in the late spring and early summer of 1863. Yes, I do.
I think this is one of the more optimistic points for the Confederacy, is in the late spring and early summer of 1863. Yes, I do.
Lex Fridman
If Robert E. Lee is correct, in that it’s all about morale, which seems like a valid argument, then this feels like very close to breaking the morale of the Union.
If Robert E. Lee is correct, in that it’s all about morale, which seems like a valid argument, then this feels like very close to breaking the morale of the Union.
Gary Gallagher
In the Eastern Theater, I think it is, but in the Western Theater we have our boy Grant- … who’s operating against Vicksburg at this point. So there are two big campaigns kind of going on at this time, and Vicksburg is the other one.
In the Eastern Theater, I think it is, but in the Western Theater we have our boy Grant- … who’s operating against Vicksburg at this point. So there are two big campaigns kind of going on at this time, and Vicksburg is the other one.
The most important battle of the Civil War
Lex Fridman
Can you speak to Vicksburg? This is ’63.
Can you speak to Vicksburg? This is ’63.
Gary Gallagher
Yeah, this is ’63, and Vicksburg is the last major Confederate citadel on the Mississippi River. They’ve already lost New Orleans. They’ve lost … So they’ve lost the river. It’s not a Confederate river anymore. But they still have a strong point at Vicksburg, and another one at Port Hudson in Northern Louisiana. Grant has been operating against Vicksburg since the winter of ’62, and he’s finally, through a series of trial and errors and failures, he’s finally found a way that he thinks he can get to the city. He takes great risks. He crosses the Mississippi River after having the Union Navy run past all the batteries, the artillery batteries there at Vicksburg, and he invests the city from the east.
Yeah, this is ’63, and Vicksburg is the last major Confederate citadel on the Mississippi River. They’ve already lost New Orleans. They’ve lost … So they’ve lost the river. It’s not a Confederate river anymore. But they still have a strong point at Vicksburg, and another one at Port Hudson in Northern Louisiana. Grant has been operating against Vicksburg since the winter of ’62, and he’s finally, through a series of trial and errors and failures, he’s finally found a way that he thinks he can get to the city. He takes great risks. He crosses the Mississippi River after having the Union Navy run past all the batteries, the artillery batteries there at Vicksburg, and he invests the city from the east.
Gary Gallagher
He’s laying siege to Vicksburg while he’s just getting his campaign to do that started when Hooker is at Chancellorsville. In May, he invests the city and begins a siege that will end just as the Battle of Gettysburg ends, and it’s, it’s, it’s one of the most impressive campaigns in US military history, Grant’s campaign against Vicksburg. Cuts loose from his supply lines. Nobody understands what he’s doing. Sherman doesn’t get what he’s doing. Lincoln doesn’t get what he’s doing. And in the end they go, “Oh, that’s what you were doing.” And it worked. And in the end, he captures Vicksburg, which surrenders on July 4th, 1863.
He’s laying siege to Vicksburg while he’s just getting his campaign to do that started when Hooker is at Chancellorsville. In May, he invests the city and begins a siege that will end just as the Battle of Gettysburg ends, and it’s, it’s, it’s one of the most impressive campaigns in US military history, Grant’s campaign against Vicksburg. Cuts loose from his supply lines. Nobody understands what he’s doing. Sherman doesn’t get what he’s doing. Lincoln doesn’t get what he’s doing. And in the end they go, “Oh, that’s what you were doing.” And it worked. And in the end, he captures Vicksburg, which surrenders on July 4th, 1863.
Gary Gallagher
And if you don’t think that a kind of religious people didn’t read divine intervention into catching, having that happen on July 4th, 1863, you would be incorrect. That’s the same day that Lee retreated from Gettysburg. What? Really? God’s not putting a thumb on the scales here? Huge victories in the West, huge victory in the East on the anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
And if you don’t think that a kind of religious people didn’t read divine intervention into catching, having that happen on July 4th, 1863, you would be incorrect. That’s the same day that Lee retreated from Gettysburg. What? Really? God’s not putting a thumb on the scales here? Huge victories in the West, huge victory in the East on the anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
Lex Fridman
Well, that takes us to Gettysburg.
Well, that takes us to Gettysburg.
Gary Gallagher
Here we are at Gettysburg.
Here we are at Gettysburg.
Lex Fridman
Here we go.
Here we go.
Gary Gallagher
Which everybody knows, Lex, is the turning point of the Civil War.
Which everybody knows, Lex, is the turning point of the Civil War.
Lex Fridman
Or is it? Okay.
Or is it? Okay.
Gary Gallagher
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
All right.
All right.
Gary Gallagher
Short answer.
Short answer.
Lex Fridman
Well, that’s first … Before we analyze its role as a turning point or not-
Well, that’s first … Before we analyze its role as a turning point or not-
Gary Gallagher
Yes, yes.
Yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
… what is Gettysburg? July 1863.
… what is Gettysburg? July 1863.
Gary Gallagher
Okay.
Okay.
Lex Fridman
Walk me through the three days of Gettysburg.
Walk me through the three days of Gettysburg.
Gary Gallagher
So Joe Hooker retreats across the Rappahannock. Lee is frustrated because he hasn’t dealt more damage to Hooker, and this is what he decides to do. He decides to move north for a second time. His army is strengthened. He builds it up to 75,000. This is his army at its absolute apogee as he gets ready to go north. It’s confident. It’s well-supplied, well-led. And so they head north second week in June, and here’s what his goal is. He has two main goals.
So Joe Hooker retreats across the Rappahannock. Lee is frustrated because he hasn’t dealt more damage to Hooker, and this is what he decides to do. He decides to move north for a second time. His army is strengthened. He builds it up to 75,000. This is his army at its absolute apogee as he gets ready to go north. It’s confident. It’s well-supplied, well-led. And so they head north second week in June, and here’s what his goal is. He has two main goals.
Gary Gallagher
He wants to take the war out of Virginia so that the agricultural sector isn’t subject to the presence of the army, so to let agriculture recover a little, and he wants to provision his army off the rich Cumberland Valley in Pennsylvania, siphon fodder and food and animals while he’s north of the Potomac, and he wants to stay up there for a long time to keep the war out of Virginia. He doesn’t wanna– He has no… The movie Gettysburg, he says he wants to capture Washington. No, he doesn’t wanna capture Washington. He knows it’s too strong. He has no idea of doing that, but he knows he’ll pull the Union Army after him and simply reorient the war, and he knows it’ll be bad politically for Lincoln-
He wants to take the war out of Virginia so that the agricultural sector isn’t subject to the presence of the army, so to let agriculture recover a little, and he wants to provision his army off the rich Cumberland Valley in Pennsylvania, siphon fodder and food and animals while he’s north of the Potomac, and he wants to stay up there for a long time to keep the war out of Virginia. He doesn’t wanna– He has no… The movie Gettysburg, he says he wants to capture Washington. No, he doesn’t wanna capture Washington. He knows it’s too strong. He has no idea of doing that, but he knows he’ll pull the Union Army after him and simply reorient the war, and he knows it’ll be bad politically for Lincoln-
Gary Gallagher
… if he’s actually operating in the United States. So off he goes to the north. He gets north of the river. His cavalry under Jeb Stuart is not doing its job because poor Jeb, who is a very good cavalryman but has a sort of adolescent streak where he has to be praised all the time, he fights the biggest cavalry battle of the war near Culpeper, Virginia, Battle of Brandy Station on June the 9th, and he almost loses, and it hurts his little feelings. And so he decides that he needs to do something dramatic so the newspapers will love him again. And he decides to ride all the way around the Army of the Potomac, which he did when McClellan was in command. It’s easier to do it when McClellan’s in command ’cause he’s never moving. He decides he’ll do it again here.
… if he’s actually operating in the United States. So off he goes to the north. He gets north of the river. His cavalry under Jeb Stuart is not doing its job because poor Jeb, who is a very good cavalryman but has a sort of adolescent streak where he has to be praised all the time, he fights the biggest cavalry battle of the war near Culpeper, Virginia, Battle of Brandy Station on June the 9th, and he almost loses, and it hurts his little feelings. And so he decides that he needs to do something dramatic so the newspapers will love him again. And he decides to ride all the way around the Army of the Potomac, which he did when McClellan was in command. It’s easier to do it when McClellan’s in command ’cause he’s never moving. He decides he’ll do it again here.
Gary Gallagher
And just as he gets east of the Army of the Potomac, the Army of the Potomac starts to move north, and so Stuart is trapped with… and he can’t communicate with Lee. So Lee doesn’t know what’s going on ’cause his cavalry isn’t doing its job. He spreads his army across southern Pennsylvania and then finds out from a sort of civilian spy, guy named Harrison, that the Army of the Potomac is actually following him and is much closer, and Lee at the end of June orders his army to concentrate near Gettysburg and not to bring on a battle, and they concentrate. Most of them come together. There’s a little clash on June the 30th, but on July the 1st, the armies make contact to the west of Gettysburg in, in a meeting engagement and more troops coming on each side.
And just as he gets east of the Army of the Potomac, the Army of the Potomac starts to move north, and so Stuart is trapped with… and he can’t communicate with Lee. So Lee doesn’t know what’s going on ’cause his cavalry isn’t doing its job. He spreads his army across southern Pennsylvania and then finds out from a sort of civilian spy, guy named Harrison, that the Army of the Potomac is actually following him and is much closer, and Lee at the end of June orders his army to concentrate near Gettysburg and not to bring on a battle, and they concentrate. Most of them come together. There’s a little clash on June the 30th, but on July the 1st, the armies make contact to the west of Gettysburg in, in a meeting engagement and more troops coming on each side.
Gary Gallagher
It builds into what turns into the three-day biggest battle of the Civil War. It’s not something Lee had planned and it wouldn’t have happened if his cavalry had been doing its job, but they weren’t, and so here they come and there’s a battle that goes for three days. Lee has the– He takes the tactical aggressive every day. He does the attacking. The Federals do the defending. Lee’s army’s 75,000. The other army’s about 85,000, 88,000. And famous terrain, Little Round Top, Round Top, Devil’s Den, the Peach Orchard, all these famous places, and it ends on the third day. Lee comes close on the second day, a huge victory for the Confederates on the first day.
It builds into what turns into the three-day biggest battle of the Civil War. It’s not something Lee had planned and it wouldn’t have happened if his cavalry had been doing its job, but they weren’t, and so here they come and there’s a battle that goes for three days. Lee has the– He takes the tactical aggressive every day. He does the attacking. The Federals do the defending. Lee’s army’s 75,000. The other army’s about 85,000, 88,000. And famous terrain, Little Round Top, Round Top, Devil’s Den, the Peach Orchard, all these famous places, and it ends on the third day. Lee comes close on the second day, a huge victory for the Confederates on the first day.
Gary Gallagher
Third day, Lee’s frustrated and he just decides to let his infantry take care of it for him and the result is what most people call Pickett’s Charge. Pickett was just a part of the charge. 12 and a half thousand infantry in a direct assault and it fails completely and he retreats the next day. I think you can draw a straight line between May the 3rd at Chancellorsville when his infantry fought their way together and July the 3rd at Gettysburg. He admits it too as he writes letters to both his wife and Jefferson Davis saying, “I asked too much of my infantry. No fault is on them. All the fault is on me.” And he was right. All the fault was on him. He and Grant are alike that way. They accept responsibility, not like McClellan.
Third day, Lee’s frustrated and he just decides to let his infantry take care of it for him and the result is what most people call Pickett’s Charge. Pickett was just a part of the charge. 12 and a half thousand infantry in a direct assault and it fails completely and he retreats the next day. I think you can draw a straight line between May the 3rd at Chancellorsville when his infantry fought their way together and July the 3rd at Gettysburg. He admits it too as he writes letters to both his wife and Jefferson Davis saying, “I asked too much of my infantry. No fault is on them. All the fault is on me.” And he was right. All the fault was on him. He and Grant are alike that way. They accept responsibility, not like McClellan.
Gary Gallagher
His first reaction is, “It’s not my fault,” to pick a general at random who did this. “It’s not my fault. It must be somebody else’s fault.” Lee took responsibility. He expected too much from his infantry. His subordinates had not been doing that good a job and they lost the biggest battle of the war.
His first reaction is, “It’s not my fault,” to pick a general at random who did this. “It’s not my fault. It must be somebody else’s fault.” Lee took responsibility. He expected too much from his infantry. His subordinates had not been doing that good a job and they lost the biggest battle of the war.
Lex Fridman
What was the military mistake there? What could Robert E. Lee done differently?
What was the military mistake there? What could Robert E. Lee done differently?
Gary Gallagher
I think what he could have done, the most perceptive Confederate soldier who wrote about the war was a guy named Edward Porter Alexander who was the most gifted artillerist. He’s in Lee’s army. He wrote after the war, Lee won a great victory on July 1st at Gettysburg, smashed two Union infantry corps, had a very strong position. He should’ve just hunkered down and said, “Okay, attack me. See what you can do.” He didn’t do that. He almost certainly would’ve won the battle if he had done that, but he, his, this, this is where his aggressiveness gets him in trouble. He was pushing for a more aggressive, more decisive outcome right then and he ended up costing… He lost probably 25,000 men at Getty, at least a third of his army.
I think what he could have done, the most perceptive Confederate soldier who wrote about the war was a guy named Edward Porter Alexander who was the most gifted artillerist. He’s in Lee’s army. He wrote after the war, Lee won a great victory on July 1st at Gettysburg, smashed two Union infantry corps, had a very strong position. He should’ve just hunkered down and said, “Okay, attack me. See what you can do.” He didn’t do that. He almost certainly would’ve won the battle if he had done that, but he, his, this, this is where his aggressiveness gets him in trouble. He was pushing for a more aggressive, more decisive outcome right then and he ended up costing… He lost probably 25,000 men at Getty, at least a third of his army.
Gary Gallagher
More than that, he went across the river, went across the Potomac with 52 generals in his army.
More than that, he went across the river, went across the Potomac with 52 generals in his army.
Gary Gallagher
17 of them became casualties. He lost a third of his entire corps of generals killed, wounded, or captured in the Gettysburg Campaign. It’s a really bloody, costly campaign for him and he ends up retreating back into Virginia. It comes it, and Lincoln is at first very happy about it. There’s another, yet another general in command on the Union side. Hooker’s gone. A guy named George Meade is in and Meade does what McClellan did after Antietam. He lets Lee get away, doesn’t really harass him, and Lincoln is beside himself with disappointment. He writes a letter to Meade, thanks him for his great victory and then says, “You’ve let him get away. The war is gonna continue indefinitely,” says Lincoln. Then he doesn’t send the letter to…
17 of them became casualties. He lost a third of his entire corps of generals killed, wounded, or captured in the Gettysburg Campaign. It’s a really bloody, costly campaign for him and he ends up retreating back into Virginia. It comes it, and Lincoln is at first very happy about it. There’s another, yet another general in command on the Union side. Hooker’s gone. A guy named George Meade is in and Meade does what McClellan did after Antietam. He lets Lee get away, doesn’t really harass him, and Lincoln is beside himself with disappointment. He writes a letter to Meade, thanks him for his great victory and then says, “You’ve let him get away. The war is gonna continue indefinitely,” says Lincoln. Then he doesn’t send the letter to…
Gary Gallagher
He writes it but doesn’t send it to Meade, but he gets another guy to tell Meade what’s in it, so he-
He writes it but doesn’t send it to Meade, but he gets another guy to tell Meade what’s in it, so he-
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Gary Gallagher
… a guy named Halleck who’s the general in chief at that point. Lincoln certainly did not think Gettysburg was the great turning point of the war. He probably thought it should’ve been, but it wasn’t because Lee got away with his army intact. And after the battle, Lee said, “Well, you’ll s- ” He said, “They lost a lot too, and they’re gonna be … There’s not gonna be another big battle.” He said, “They’ll be as quiet as a sucking dove- … for six months.” And in fact, it’s 10 months before there’s another big battle in- … the Eastern Theater, till Grant gets there.
… a guy named Halleck who’s the general in chief at that point. Lincoln certainly did not think Gettysburg was the great turning point of the war. He probably thought it should’ve been, but it wasn’t because Lee got away with his army intact. And after the battle, Lee said, “Well, you’ll s- ” He said, “They lost a lot too, and they’re gonna be … There’s not gonna be another big battle.” He said, “They’ll be as quiet as a sucking dove- … for six months.” And in fact, it’s 10 months before there’s another big battle in- … the Eastern Theater, till Grant gets there.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, so how does Grant come from the, to change the theater from the Western Theater into the Eastern?
Yeah, so how does Grant come from the, to change the theater from the Western Theater into the Eastern?
Gary Gallagher
So Gettysburg’s a really important victory for the United States.
So Gettysburg’s a really important victory for the United States.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but it’s not the turning point.
Yeah, but it’s not the turning point.
Gary Gallagher
No, and it’s not as important as Vicksburg, because Lee gets away. Grant captured an entire rebel army at Vicksburg. Pemberton’s whole army surrendered, and that’s the second time Grant had forced an army to surrender. He forced one at Fort Donelson back in February of 1862. His victory is, is … There’s, there are no, no equivocations about it. It’s a victory. The Mississippi is now all controlled by the United States Navy, but Lee got away, so that puts a little cloud over Gettysburg at the time. Grant wins one more victory in the West after this. He wins the Battle of Chattanooga in late 1863.
No, and it’s not as important as Vicksburg, because Lee gets away. Grant captured an entire rebel army at Vicksburg. Pemberton’s whole army surrendered, and that’s the second time Grant had forced an army to surrender. He forced one at Fort Donelson back in February of 1862. His victory is, is … There’s, there are no, no equivocations about it. It’s a victory. The Mississippi is now all controlled by the United States Navy, but Lee got away, so that puts a little cloud over Gettysburg at the time. Grant wins one more victory in the West after this. He wins the Battle of Chattanooga in late 1863.
Gary Gallagher
And that then puts him in position for Lincoln to decide that he not only should be in charge of everything in the West, he should be general-in-chief, and that’s what brings Grant to the fore. And in March ’64, he’s now general-in-chief with the new rank of lieutenant general on his … He’s got three stars on his shoulders now instead of two.
And that then puts him in position for Lincoln to decide that he not only should be in charge of everything in the West, he should be general-in-chief, and that’s what brings Grant to the fore. And in March ’64, he’s now general-in-chief with the new rank of lieutenant general on his … He’s got three stars on his shoulders now instead of two.
The final showdown of the Civil War – Grant vs Lee
Lex Fridman
And then where does that take us? That takes us to ’64 with the Overland Campaign. That story plus Atlanta, Sherman’s March.
And then where does that take us? That takes us to ’64 with the Overland Campaign. That story plus Atlanta, Sherman’s March.
Gary Gallagher
That sets up … Grant is now planning for how the whole war is gonna go. And he envisions five components. The two most important are he’s gonna move against Lee, and his plan is lock up with Lee, inflict the greatest possible damage on Lee, prevent Lee from sending reinforcements anywhere else, and if all goes well, Richmond would fall. But he’s not mainly interested in Richmond. He’s interested in Lee’s army, which is what Lincoln has been trying to get his generals to be interested in the whole time. Destroy Lee’s army, and of course Richmond falls.
That sets up … Grant is now planning for how the whole war is gonna go. And he envisions five components. The two most important are he’s gonna move against Lee, and his plan is lock up with Lee, inflict the greatest possible damage on Lee, prevent Lee from sending reinforcements anywhere else, and if all goes well, Richmond would fall. But he’s not mainly interested in Richmond. He’s interested in Lee’s army, which is what Lincoln has been trying to get his generals to be interested in the whole time. Destroy Lee’s army, and of course Richmond falls.
Lex Fridman
So how is he thinking about the clash with Lee? Grant versus Lee.
So how is he thinking about the clash with Lee? Grant versus Lee.
Gary Gallagher
Grant versus Lee is just confront him. And they’re still near Fredericksburg, where they, on the Rappahannock River frontier, engaged with him and what they ended up with was a period of six weeks of continuous combat that began with the Battle of the Wilderness on May the 5th and 6th. The old pattern in the Civil War, Lex, was you fight a battle, one side retreats. It might be weeks, might be months before you fight again. What happened here is Lee and Grant fought the Battle of the Wilderness. 12,000 Confederate casualties, 18,000 Union ca- 30,000 casualties at the Wilderness. They march for one day. They start another battle, Spotsylvania Court House.
Grant versus Lee is just confront him. And they’re still near Fredericksburg, where they, on the Rappahannock River frontier, engaged with him and what they ended up with was a period of six weeks of continuous combat that began with the Battle of the Wilderness on May the 5th and 6th. The old pattern in the Civil War, Lex, was you fight a battle, one side retreats. It might be weeks, might be months before you fight again. What happened here is Lee and Grant fought the Battle of the Wilderness. 12,000 Confederate casualties, 18,000 Union ca- 30,000 casualties at the Wilderness. They march for one day. They start another battle, Spotsylvania Court House.
Gary Gallagher
12,000 more Confederate casualties, 18,000 more Union casualties, so now you’ve had 60,000 casualties in two battles with no interval. That continues through May. Cold Harbor, they end up near Richmond at Cold Harbor in early June. Grant launches frontal assaults there. They come to nothing. His men are, many of them are butchered. The bottom line is that in the six-week campaign, Grant suffers 65,000 casualties, which is as big as Lee’s whole army had been. Lee suffers 35,000, which is a higher percentage of his army than Grant lost in, or about the same percentage, actually. But it is a kind of continuous campaign no one had seen before, and it shatters both armies. It eviscerates the officer corps in both armies. A lot of soldiers just break down.
12,000 more Confederate casualties, 18,000 more Union casualties, so now you’ve had 60,000 casualties in two battles with no interval. That continues through May. Cold Harbor, they end up near Richmond at Cold Harbor in early June. Grant launches frontal assaults there. They come to nothing. His men are, many of them are butchered. The bottom line is that in the six-week campaign, Grant suffers 65,000 casualties, which is as big as Lee’s whole army had been. Lee suffers 35,000, which is a higher percentage of his army than Grant lost in, or about the same percentage, actually. But it is a kind of continuous campaign no one had seen before, and it shatters both armies. It eviscerates the officer corps in both armies. A lot of soldiers just break down.
Gary Gallagher
We would talk about PTSD now probably. They just hadn’t been used to something like this.
We would talk about PTSD now probably. They just hadn’t been used to something like this.
Lex Fridman
And this kind of continuous warfare, that’s … We can attribute that to Grant.
And this kind of continuous warfare, that’s … We can attribute that to Grant.
Gary Gallagher
Yes, this is … And this is where the Grant the Butcher image comes in.
Yes, this is … And this is where the Grant the Butcher image comes in.
Lex Fridman
But also probably, as hard as it is to say, it’s an act of military genius, right?
But also probably, as hard as it is to say, it’s an act of military genius, right?
Gary Gallagher
Well, it’s … He’s doing what he wanted to do. He’s bleeding Lee’s army and at the same time pushing it back toward Richmond, and what it ends up in is the siege at Petersburg, Virginia, which is just south of Richmond and controls the communications into Richmond, and it’s a siege of actually Petersburg and Richmond, and that is the thing that Lee feared the most, and Grant had put him in exactly that position. But the perception behind the lines in the United States is endless casualties. Who’s winning? We can’t even tell who’s winning. We have these casualties, and so Union morale drops to its lowest point of the entire war in July and August 1864.
Well, it’s … He’s doing what he wanted to do. He’s bleeding Lee’s army and at the same time pushing it back toward Richmond, and what it ends up in is the siege at Petersburg, Virginia, which is just south of Richmond and controls the communications into Richmond, and it’s a siege of actually Petersburg and Richmond, and that is the thing that Lee feared the most, and Grant had put him in exactly that position. But the perception behind the lines in the United States is endless casualties. Who’s winning? We can’t even tell who’s winning. We have these casualties, and so Union morale drops to its lowest point of the entire war in July and August 1864.
Gary Gallagher
Because while this is going on, Sherman is moving against Atlanta, and he is taking his time, not fighting these big battles, but he’s not capturing Atlanta either. The whole summer goes by. Atlanta hasn’t fallen. Richmond hasn’t fallen. There’s an election coming up in the fall in the United States, and Lincoln decides … The morale gets so bad he calls his cabinet together in late August and makes them sign what’s been called the Blind Memorandum, and what the memorandum said is, “We’re not gonna be reelected, and we’re gonna have to win the war before the Democrats come in, because we know they won’t win the war.” Lincoln did not think they would win. That’s in August.
Because while this is going on, Sherman is moving against Atlanta, and he is taking his time, not fighting these big battles, but he’s not capturing Atlanta either. The whole summer goes by. Atlanta hasn’t fallen. Richmond hasn’t fallen. There’s an election coming up in the fall in the United States, and Lincoln decides … The morale gets so bad he calls his cabinet together in late August and makes them sign what’s been called the Blind Memorandum, and what the memorandum said is, “We’re not gonna be reelected, and we’re gonna have to win the war before the Democrats come in, because we know they won’t win the war.” Lincoln did not think they would win. That’s in August.
Gary Gallagher
And so I think that United States civilian morale, the lowest point of the war for the United States is in July and August 1864. And if we’d been able to stick our microphones in people’s faces and said, “Well, but what about Gettysburg? That was the turning point of the war,” they would’ve said, “What are you talking about?” “That was a year ago. This is now, and we’re not winning, and it’s not worth it, and we’re just about ready.” McClellan, incidentally, was the Democratic nominee for president that year, so he’s running against Lincoln.
And so I think that United States civilian morale, the lowest point of the war for the United States is in July and August 1864. And if we’d been able to stick our microphones in people’s faces and said, “Well, but what about Gettysburg? That was the turning point of the war,” they would’ve said, “What are you talking about?” “That was a year ago. This is now, and we’re not winning, and it’s not worth it, and we’re just about ready.” McClellan, incidentally, was the Democratic nominee for president that year, so he’s running against Lincoln.
Lex Fridman
So first of all, if Lincoln didn’t win, do you think-
So first of all, if Lincoln didn’t win, do you think-
Gary Gallagher
Well, we know it would’ve been good for the Confederates if Lincoln didn’t win, but just … McClellan still … It’s interesting. McClellan was running kind of against the Democratic platform. What the Democratic platform called for was basically negotiations, an armistice and then negotiations. And many people believed if they ever stop fighting, they’re not gonna start fighting again. And so some negotiated end to the war that might even yield a confederacy. McClellan, to his credit, and I hate to give him credit, at least said that he wasn’t up for that. He said, “We need to win the war, and then we’ll have negotiations.”
Well, we know it would’ve been good for the Confederates if Lincoln didn’t win, but just … McClellan still … It’s interesting. McClellan was running kind of against the Democratic platform. What the Democratic platform called for was basically negotiations, an armistice and then negotiations. And many people believed if they ever stop fighting, they’re not gonna start fighting again. And so some negotiated end to the war that might even yield a confederacy. McClellan, to his credit, and I hate to give him credit, at least said that he wasn’t up for that. He said, “We need to win the war, and then we’ll have negotiations.”
Gary Gallagher
But what’s clear is… And it would’ve been, would’ve been the end of emancipation. Because emancipation, what became the 13th Amendment had passed through the Senate in April of ’64, but the House voted against it. That doesn’t, isn’t gonna happen till early ’65.
But what’s clear is… And it would’ve been, would’ve been the end of emancipation. Because emancipation, what became the 13th Amendment had passed through the Senate in April of ’64, but the House voted against it. That doesn’t, isn’t gonna happen till early ’65.
Lex Fridman
How close was it that Lincoln won/lost?
How close was it that Lincoln won/lost?
Gary Gallagher
Well, Lincoln won. Grant didn’t reelect Lincoln, ’cause he, Grant against Lee would not reelect Lincoln. But other Grants, other things that Grant, part of his overall plan as general-in-chief, Sherman captured Atlanta- … in early September. And that just changed everything.
Well, Lincoln won. Grant didn’t reelect Lincoln, ’cause he, Grant against Lee would not reelect Lincoln. But other Grants, other things that Grant, part of his overall plan as general-in-chief, Sherman captured Atlanta- … in early September. And that just changed everything.
Lex Fridman
That was the real turning point.
That was the real turning point.
Gary Gallagher
That was a huge military turning point, and then on the heels of that, Philip Sheridan won a series of crushing victories in the Shenandoah Valley, the last of which came just before the election, and it was Sherman, and to a lesser degree Sheridan, that reelected Lincoln, and not just Lincoln, but huge Republican majorities- … in both the House and the Senate in 1864.
That was a huge military turning point, and then on the heels of that, Philip Sheridan won a series of crushing victories in the Shenandoah Valley, the last of which came just before the election, and it was Sherman, and to a lesser degree Sheridan, that reelected Lincoln, and not just Lincoln, but huge Republican majorities- … in both the House and the Senate in 1864.
Lex Fridman
And then the thing that broke the back of the Confederacy, Sherman’s March, 60,000 men across Georgia to the sea, burning the infrastructure.
And then the thing that broke the back of the Confederacy, Sherman’s March, 60,000 men across Georgia to the sea, burning the infrastructure.
Gary Gallagher
Yes, as he said, “I’m gonna go across and make Georgia howl,” is how he put it. He added a psychological twist. What Grant envisioned doing, and Sheridan actually did in the Shenandoah Valley before Sherman did it in Georgia, is go into an agriculturally productive area, burn the mills, kill the livestock, destroy the crops, lay waste to it so that it can’t be a logistical support of the Confederacy anymore. Sheridan did it in the Shenandoah Valley, and then Sherman did it in Georgia.
Yes, as he said, “I’m gonna go across and make Georgia howl,” is how he put it. He added a psychological twist. What Grant envisioned doing, and Sheridan actually did in the Shenandoah Valley before Sherman did it in Georgia, is go into an agriculturally productive area, burn the mills, kill the livestock, destroy the crops, lay waste to it so that it can’t be a logistical support of the Confederacy anymore. Sheridan did it in the Shenandoah Valley, and then Sherman did it in Georgia.
Gary Gallagher
But Sherman said, “But I’m also going to break them psychologically.” That’s what he said, that, “I’m gonna show them that my army can go wherever it wants to go, whenever it wants to go, and there’s nothing Jefferson Davis can do about it.” He said, “When they decide that, they’ll give up.” Didn’t exactly work that way, but that’s what he—so he marched first to Savannah, and then the final campaign for Sherman was up through the Carolinas. He went up through South Carolina and into North Carolina. And Grant laid siege to Lee, and the siege lasted nine months, the Siege of Petersburg in Richmond, and finally Grant broke Lee’s lines on April 1st, 1865. Lee started a retreat. Grant just gave him no pause, and he ran him to ground at Appomattox after about a week, and Lee surrendered.
But Sherman said, “But I’m also going to break them psychologically.” That’s what he said, that, “I’m gonna show them that my army can go wherever it wants to go, whenever it wants to go, and there’s nothing Jefferson Davis can do about it.” He said, “When they decide that, they’ll give up.” Didn’t exactly work that way, but that’s what he—so he marched first to Savannah, and then the final campaign for Sherman was up through the Carolinas. He went up through South Carolina and into North Carolina. And Grant laid siege to Lee, and the siege lasted nine months, the Siege of Petersburg in Richmond, and finally Grant broke Lee’s lines on April 1st, 1865. Lee started a retreat. Grant just gave him no pause, and he ran him to ground at Appomattox after about a week, and Lee surrendered.
Lex Fridman
What do we know about the relationship between the two men?
What do we know about the relationship between the two men?
Gary Gallagher
Grant and Lee? Well, it’s really interesting. I mean, they basically operated in totally different worlds. They were both in the war with Mexico, but they weren’t with each other in Mexico, and they had some awkward kinda small talk at Appomattox before they got down to business. One said he remembered the other one, the other one said he didn’t remember him at all, and it’s so… But Grant was very generous. He gave 25,000 rations to Lee’s army to survive. Lee began the retreat with about 60,000 men, only fewer than 30,000—his army disintegrated in a week. He only surrendered 28,000 at Appomattox. They were allowed to sign a parole and go home.
Grant and Lee? Well, it’s really interesting. I mean, they basically operated in totally different worlds. They were both in the war with Mexico, but they weren’t with each other in Mexico, and they had some awkward kinda small talk at Appomattox before they got down to business. One said he remembered the other one, the other one said he didn’t remember him at all, and it’s so… But Grant was very generous. He gave 25,000 rations to Lee’s army to survive. Lee began the retreat with about 60,000 men, only fewer than 30,000—his army disintegrated in a week. He only surrendered 28,000 at Appomattox. They were allowed to sign a parole and go home.
Lex Fridman
But at the peak of, you know, Grant versus Lee, surely they were thinking about each other.
But at the peak of, you know, Grant versus Lee, surely they were thinking about each other.
Gary Gallagher
They were, and I’ve always found this interesting. They tended to be very generous toward other opponents. But Grant pretended that Lee wasn’t the best opponent he ever faced. And Lee pretended that Grant wasn’t the best opponent he ever faced, and it’s ludicrous that they would’ve actually thought that. They clearly found out that that wasn’t true.
They were, and I’ve always found this interesting. They tended to be very generous toward other opponents. But Grant pretended that Lee wasn’t the best opponent he ever faced. And Lee pretended that Grant wasn’t the best opponent he ever faced, and it’s ludicrous that they would’ve actually thought that. They clearly found out that that wasn’t true.
Lex Fridman
It’s interesting when people do that. I sometimes, like, wonder, how is it possible… There’s just a million examples of this. For example, Hitler just completely dismissed America as a military force.
It’s interesting when people do that. I sometimes, like, wonder, how is it possible… There’s just a million examples of this. For example, Hitler just completely dismissed America as a military force.
Gary Gallagher
Oh, it’s nothing, they’re a bunch of… Yes, they’re soft. They’ll never do anything.
Oh, it’s nothing, they’re a bunch of… Yes, they’re soft. They’ll never do anything.
Lex Fridman
I have to say, it’s probably some silly psychological things. You make up your mind for some stupid reason.
I have to say, it’s probably some silly psychological things. You make up your mind for some stupid reason.
Gary Gallagher
And then you stick to it.
And then you stick to it.
Lex Fridman
And you stick to it, and you almost, like, against… I mean, with a lot of great generals and leaders, you have to be stubborn in the face of facts sometimes-
And you stick to it, and you almost, like, against… I mean, with a lot of great generals and leaders, you have to be stubborn in the face of facts sometimes-
Gary Gallagher
You do, yeah
You do, yeah
Lex Fridman
… because, like, all the rational people will tell you, you get this with Napoleon, like, “What are you doing?” Like, the generals, the wise, smart people around you will say, “Don’t do this.”
… because, like, all the rational people will tell you, you get this with Napoleon, like, “What are you doing?” Like, the generals, the wise, smart people around you will say, “Don’t do this.”
Gary Gallagher
Grant’s a perfect example of that, Lex, at Vicksburg, where his problem was to get his army on the same side of the river as the Confederates, where he could come against Vicksburg, and the only way to do it was have the Union Navy run past—and he said to do it. “No, don’t do it,” said the Navy. “No, don’t. No. Sherman, no. Don’t…” Everybody said no, and Grant said, “Do it.” And it worked.
Grant’s a perfect example of that, Lex, at Vicksburg, where his problem was to get his army on the same side of the river as the Confederates, where he could come against Vicksburg, and the only way to do it was have the Union Navy run past—and he said to do it. “No, don’t do it,” said the Navy. “No, don’t. No. Sherman, no. Don’t…” Everybody said no, and Grant said, “Do it.” And it worked.
Lex Fridman
I mean, it has to do with the, with I guess you’ve criticized once or twice M- this guy named McClellan.
I mean, it has to do with the, with I guess you’ve criticized once or twice M- this guy named McClellan.
Gary Gallagher
I did, once or twice.
I did, once or twice.
Lex Fridman
That, you know, you do have to take risk. You have to take risk in order-
That, you know, you do have to take risk. You have to take risk in order-
Gary Gallagher
You do
You do
Lex Fridman
… to win battles.
… to win battles.
Gary Gallagher
And I’ll finish– I can’t resist getting one more shot. Lee is often quoted as saying that McClellan was the most talented general he ever faced.
And I’ll finish– I can’t resist getting one more shot. Lee is often quoted as saying that McClellan was the most talented general he ever faced.
Lex Fridman
Really? Hmm.
Really? Hmm.
Gary Gallagher
Yeah, but that’s, but what he actually said, and the quote started with his nephew, Fitzhugh Lee, who wrote it in a book after the war. Lee called McClellan the most intellectual General he ever faced. And I think that is not a compliment. I think Lee is saying, “Yeah, he’s an intellectual. He thinks about this, he thinks about … He never does anything.” “He thinks about things.” So I think it’s actually a slight, not a compliment to McClellan– I really do. Because he couldn’t have possibly thought he was the most talented one that he faced.
Yeah, but that’s, but what he actually said, and the quote started with his nephew, Fitzhugh Lee, who wrote it in a book after the war. Lee called McClellan the most intellectual General he ever faced. And I think that is not a compliment. I think Lee is saying, “Yeah, he’s an intellectual. He thinks about this, he thinks about … He never does anything.” “He thinks about things.” So I think it’s actually a slight, not a compliment to McClellan– I really do. Because he couldn’t have possibly thought he was the most talented one that he faced.
Lex Fridman
I think it’s a polite wink and nod to criticize.
I think it’s a polite wink and nod to criticize.
Gary Gallagher
It’s a wink and nod.
It’s a wink and nod.
Lex Fridman
All right. How does the war end? So clearly there’s the turning point with Atlanta and Sherman’s March.
All right. How does the war end? So clearly there’s the turning point with Atlanta and Sherman’s March.
Gary Gallagher
And the election of ’64 is the– that drives the dagger into … I mean, there’s no question but that the war will be pushed to the end because Lincoln and Grant are in charge and they are not gonna take their foot off the-
And the election of ’64 is the– that drives the dagger into … I mean, there’s no question but that the war will be pushed to the end because Lincoln and Grant are in charge and they are not gonna take their foot off the-
Lex Fridman
Yeah
Yeah
Gary Gallagher
… the pedal. They’re gonna push it. So it’s a question of time. It drags on, still drags on another six months. Lee surrenders on April 9th. They lay down their arms on April 12th. There are still tens of thousands of Confederate soldiers under arms in different places, but it’s a measure of how important Lee and his army were that for everybody, virtually on both sides, that’s the end of the war.
… the pedal. They’re gonna push it. So it’s a question of time. It drags on, still drags on another six months. Lee surrenders on April 9th. They lay down their arms on April 12th. There are still tens of thousands of Confederate soldiers under arms in different places, but it’s a measure of how important Lee and his army were that for everybody, virtually on both sides, that’s the end of the war.
Gary Gallagher
Lee surrendered. There’s no reason to push this any farther, and other surrenders came pretty quickly. Jefferson Davis was one of the few people who didn’t figure that out. He thought something was still possible, but it wasn’t. That was the end of the war. The final surrenders are over in June, and that’s it, and everybody gets the same terms that Grant offered to Lee. His friend Sherman tried to do more, and they had to rein Sherman in and say, “You can’t … No. You’re, you’re a general, not a politician. You can’t do this.”
Lee surrendered. There’s no reason to push this any farther, and other surrenders came pretty quickly. Jefferson Davis was one of the few people who didn’t figure that out. He thought something was still possible, but it wasn’t. That was the end of the war. The final surrenders are over in June, and that’s it, and everybody gets the same terms that Grant offered to Lee. His friend Sherman tried to do more, and they had to rein Sherman in and say, “You can’t … No. You’re, you’re a general, not a politician. You can’t do this.”
Lex Fridman
So can we talk about April 9th? I mean, this is a really important moment of what Grant did in terms of how he treated the opposing army.
So can we talk about April 9th? I mean, this is a really important moment of what Grant did in terms of how he treated the opposing army.
Gary Gallagher
As I said earlier, he treated him the way that he knew that Lincoln wanted them treated and, and it may be that Grant thought exactly the same thing. But I think this is a measure of how Grant was a very … He’s a soldier who knew his place. He has civilian superiors. Other generals didn’t act that way. I know I’m beating up on McClellan. He’s one. Joseph Johnston on the Confederate side is one. They didn’t really defer to their civilian superiors. US Grant did, and he … And this is one of those cases. He sent the rations. He didn’t know that Confederates supplied their own horses. If you’re a Confederate cavalryman, the government didn’t buy a horse for you. You had to supply your horse, and if a horse got killed, you had to buy another one or they’d make you an infantryman.
As I said earlier, he treated him the way that he knew that Lincoln wanted them treated and, and it may be that Grant thought exactly the same thing. But I think this is a measure of how Grant was a very … He’s a soldier who knew his place. He has civilian superiors. Other generals didn’t act that way. I know I’m beating up on McClellan. He’s one. Joseph Johnston on the Confederate side is one. They didn’t really defer to their civilian superiors. US Grant did, and he … And this is one of those cases. He sent the rations. He didn’t know that Confederates supplied their own horses. If you’re a Confederate cavalryman, the government didn’t buy a horse for you. You had to supply your horse, and if a horse got killed, you had to buy another one or they’d make you an infantryman.
Gary Gallagher
When Grant found that out, he let them take their horses home with them. He said they’ll need them for the planting and so forth. He did everything in a generous way that you could reasonably think might happen in a situation like … It’s still an unconditional surrender. You are surrendering. You’re going home. You’re not an army anymore. But nobody’s going to prisoner of war camps. Nobody’s doing those things. You lay your arms down, you lay your flags down, and you lay your ammunition down, but that’s it.
When Grant found that out, he let them take their horses home with them. He said they’ll need them for the planting and so forth. He did everything in a generous way that you could reasonably think might happen in a situation like … It’s still an unconditional surrender. You are surrendering. You’re going home. You’re not an army anymore. But nobody’s going to prisoner of war camps. Nobody’s doing those things. You lay your arms down, you lay your flags down, and you lay your ammunition down, but that’s it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, but there’s certain symbolic actions like this that can lay the groundwork for long-term peace.
Yeah, but there’s certain symbolic actions like this that can lay the groundwork for long-term peace.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. He didn’t demand that Lee give him his sword. He didn’t do that, none of those kinds of things that you could have done.
Yes. He didn’t demand that Lee give him his sword. He didn’t do that, none of those kinds of things that you could have done.
Lex Fridman
Sorry to linger on it, but there’s certain elements of humiliation that prevent long-term peace. I have to go back to Hitler and what Germany experienced at the end of World War I.
Sorry to linger on it, but there’s certain elements of humiliation that prevent long-term peace. I have to go back to Hitler and what Germany experienced at the end of World War I.
Gary Gallagher
You mean Versailles, the terms from Versailles. No question about it.
You mean Versailles, the terms from Versailles. No question about it.
Lex Fridman
And some of it is economic, some of it is geopolitics, but some of it is just on a basic human level humiliation. And people are just not good with humiliation. They remember.
And some of it is economic, some of it is geopolitics, but some of it is just on a basic human level humiliation. And people are just not good with humiliation. They remember.
Gary Gallagher
No, and they can turn that around into something you don’t want it to be to get back national pride. But Lincoln’s bottom line was the point is to put the nation back together and you … The good way to start that is not by imprisoning tens of thousands of Confederate soldiers. That’s not the way to do it. Send them home. Make them accept the terms, but then send them home and leave them alone. The president wanted to go after Lincoln’s death. Andrew Johnson wanted to go after Lee, and Grant said, “I’ll resign if you do … ” ‘Cause I … His term … We extended the terms. He’s abiding by the terms. You can’t change the rules here.
No, and they can turn that around into something you don’t want it to be to get back national pride. But Lincoln’s bottom line was the point is to put the nation back together and you … The good way to start that is not by imprisoning tens of thousands of Confederate soldiers. That’s not the way to do it. Send them home. Make them accept the terms, but then send them home and leave them alone. The president wanted to go after Lincoln’s death. Andrew Johnson wanted to go after Lee, and Grant said, “I’ll resign if you do … ” ‘Cause I … His term … We extended the terms. He’s abiding by the terms. You can’t change the rules here.
Lex Fridman
But by the way, like it should be said, is that that’s not easy to do. You have just fought an extremely bloody-
But by the way, like it should be said, is that that’s not easy to do. You have just fought an extremely bloody-
Gary Gallagher
Oh
Oh
Lex Fridman
… battle. There’s hatred.
… battle. There’s hatred.
Gary Gallagher
There were lots of people who wanted Davis to swing and Lee to swing. “Kill them. Execute the rebels. They’re rebels and traitors who almost destroyed the nation. Why are you being so easy on them?” Thaddeus Stevens was on board that train. Lots of radical Republicans were. “You need to punish them for what … You haven’t punished them enough. You’re not punishing them. Yes, you took slavery away from them, but that’s not enough. They should be punished more for what they did.” “Confiscate their lands. Take their wealth away from them.”
There were lots of people who wanted Davis to swing and Lee to swing. “Kill them. Execute the rebels. They’re rebels and traitors who almost destroyed the nation. Why are you being so easy on them?” Thaddeus Stevens was on board that train. Lots of radical Republicans were. “You need to punish them for what … You haven’t punished them enough. You’re not punishing them. Yes, you took slavery away from them, but that’s not enough. They should be punished more for what they did.” “Confiscate their lands. Take their wealth away from them.”
Lex Fridman
So what happened next in terms of reconciliation?
So what happened next in terms of reconciliation?
Gary Gallagher
Well, Lincoln got assassinated just a few days after-
Well, Lincoln got assassinated just a few days after-
Lex Fridman
Yeah
Yeah
Gary Gallagher
… Lee’s troops laid down their arms.
… Lee’s troops laid down their arms.
Lex Fridman
Can you talk to the assassination? He was shot five days after the surrender, right?
Can you talk to the assassination? He was shot five days after the surrender, right?
Gary Gallagher
Yes, he was.
Yes, he was.
Lex Fridman
So who was Booth? Who was John Wilkes Booth? Why did he assassinate Lincoln, and what impact did that have?
So who was Booth? Who was John Wilkes Booth? Why did he assassinate Lincoln, and what impact did that have?
Gary Gallagher
Well, he was the youngest of the most famous acting family in the United States. Junius Brutus Booth and Edwin Booth, his father and older brother, were very famous actors, and he was a very successful actor, too, John Wilkes Booth was. He was good at jumping around the stage, and he was very athletic. And an ardent pro-Confederate.
Well, he was the youngest of the most famous acting family in the United States. Junius Brutus Booth and Edwin Booth, his father and older brother, were very famous actors, and he was a very successful actor, too, John Wilkes Booth was. He was good at jumping around the stage, and he was very athletic. And an ardent pro-Confederate.
Lex Fridman
Right. That’s the more important- … Aspect
Right. That’s the more important- … Aspect
Gary Gallagher
Not ardent, not ardent enough to put on a uniform for the Confederacy, but ardent enough to, you know— … argue for the Confederacy. He claims … I mean, not claims. He heard Lincoln make a statement about maybe Black soldiers getting the vote, and he said that was it for him, that somebody needed to kill the tyrant. This is very … This is after Lee had surrendered.
Not ardent, not ardent enough to put on a uniform for the Confederacy, but ardent enough to, you know— … argue for the Confederacy. He claims … I mean, not claims. He heard Lincoln make a statement about maybe Black soldiers getting the vote, and he said that was it for him, that somebody needed to kill the tyrant. This is very … This is after Lee had surrendered.
Lex Fridman
So he was on the Union side.
So he was on the Union side.
Gary Gallagher
Oh, yeah. Oh, yes, he-
Oh, yeah. Oh, yes, he-
Lex Fridman
But Lincoln was a tyrant in his eyes.
But Lincoln was a tyrant in his eyes.
Gary Gallagher
Lincoln was a tyrant because of his treatment of the white South. And he had plotted earlier to kidnap Lincoln and hold him for ransom, and that didn’t work out. So then he got this little group of losers around him to help. I mean, real misfits. Their plan was to kill Seward, Andrew Johnson. They were gonna cut off the top leadership of the United States. Kill the vice, kill the president, kill the vice president, kill the secretary of state. That’s what they wanted to do.
Lincoln was a tyrant because of his treatment of the white South. And he had plotted earlier to kidnap Lincoln and hold him for ransom, and that didn’t work out. So then he got this little group of losers around him to help. I mean, real misfits. Their plan was to kill Seward, Andrew Johnson. They were gonna cut off the top leadership of the United States. Kill the vice, kill the president, kill the vice president, kill the secretary of state. That’s what they wanted to do.
Lex Fridman
On the Johnson side, they chickened out.
On the Johnson side, they chickened out.
Gary Gallagher
That guy chickened out. A guy named Lewis Powell was sent to kill Seward. Seward had been in an accident and had his neck in a big brace, and he slashed at Seward, huge scars on the side of his face, but the knife hit the brace and didn’t kill Seward. So Seward was disfigured. His son was wounded. The guy who was supposed to kill Johnson chickened out, and Booth killed Lincoln.
That guy chickened out. A guy named Lewis Powell was sent to kill Seward. Seward had been in an accident and had his neck in a big brace, and he slashed at Seward, huge scars on the side of his face, but the knife hit the brace and didn’t kill Seward. So Seward was disfigured. His son was wounded. The guy who was supposed to kill Johnson chickened out, and Booth killed Lincoln.
Gary Gallagher
And there was a manhunt for Lincoln, or for Booth. It took a while, and he was shot in a barn rather than captured and put on trial. But four of the conspirators were put on trial, including one woman, a woman named Mary Surratt, who ran a boarding house where some of them stayed, and they were all hanged at Old Capitol Prison. And the combination of that hanging, they were tried by a military commission and hanged, but they also put on trial and hanged the commandant of Andersonville Prison, which was the most infamous of the Confederate prisoner of war camps. They hanged him as well. And it seemed that those hangings sort of took the edge, the sort of we need some retribution edge off attitudes in the North.
And there was a manhunt for Lincoln, or for Booth. It took a while, and he was shot in a barn rather than captured and put on trial. But four of the conspirators were put on trial, including one woman, a woman named Mary Surratt, who ran a boarding house where some of them stayed, and they were all hanged at Old Capitol Prison. And the combination of that hanging, they were tried by a military commission and hanged, but they also put on trial and hanged the commandant of Andersonville Prison, which was the most infamous of the Confederate prisoner of war camps. They hanged him as well. And it seemed that those hangings sort of took the edge, the sort of we need some retribution edge off attitudes in the North.
Gary Gallagher
I think those things helped offset Lincoln’s assassination in a sort of odd way because the temperature went down after that.
I think those things helped offset Lincoln’s assassination in a sort of odd way because the temperature went down after that.
Lex Fridman
You talk about, as maybe a bit of an aside but that we Americans like to spin up conspiracy theories about assassinations- … of our presidents. So that’s certainly very true, maybe truer than most about Lincoln’s assassination.
You talk about, as maybe a bit of an aside but that we Americans like to spin up conspiracy theories about assassinations- … of our presidents. So that’s certainly very true, maybe truer than most about Lincoln’s assassination.
Gary Gallagher
There was a long literature actually. It began with a chemist named Otto Eisenschiml many, many decades ago that implicated Secretary of War Stanton- … and blamed the radicals were unhappy with Lincoln for not being harsher on the former Confederates, and what they wanted to do was get him out of the way. They thought they could manipulate Andrew Johnson if they got Andrew Johnson in charge. So then they would pose these questions. How come no one was guarding Lincoln that night? How come the only bridge over the Potomac that wasn’t guarded is the one that Booth escaped across? All of these.
There was a long literature actually. It began with a chemist named Otto Eisenschiml many, many decades ago that implicated Secretary of War Stanton- … and blamed the radicals were unhappy with Lincoln for not being harsher on the former Confederates, and what they wanted to do was get him out of the way. They thought they could manipulate Andrew Johnson if they got Andrew Johnson in charge. So then they would pose these questions. How come no one was guarding Lincoln that night? How come the only bridge over the Potomac that wasn’t guarded is the one that Booth escaped across? All of these.
Gary Gallagher
How come Grant didn’t go to the play with Lincoln? The Lincolns asked them. Well, they didn’t ’cause Mrs. Lincoln didn’t like… I mean, Mrs. Grant didn’t like Mrs. Lincoln. I mean, there are answers to all the questions. But they put all these together, added two and two and got five, and said that it was a plot on the part of the radical wing of the Republican Party to get rid of Lincoln ’cause Lincoln didn’t wanna be harsh enough on the South.
How come Grant didn’t go to the play with Lincoln? The Lincolns asked them. Well, they didn’t ’cause Mrs. Lincoln didn’t like… I mean, Mrs. Grant didn’t like Mrs. Lincoln. I mean, there are answers to all the questions. But they put all these together, added two and two and got five, and said that it was a plot on the part of the radical wing of the Republican Party to get rid of Lincoln ’cause Lincoln didn’t wanna be harsh enough on the South.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s difficult to believe that dramatic, sometimes catastrophic things happen for seemingly… That, that like the random, as you said, loser…
Yeah, it’s difficult to believe that dramatic, sometimes catastrophic things happen for seemingly… That, that like the random, as you said, loser…
Gary Gallagher
It’s not satisfying. You want a more satisfying, and that is a big conspiracy is better. There are all these forces at work to get rid of Lincoln, not just that the one guy assigned to guard Lincoln—there’s no Secret Service then—went across the street to get a drink. And Booth had played in that theater many times. He knew exactly the layout. He’d come in earlier. He’d arrange… I mean, it just, that’s the way it worked out.
It’s not satisfying. You want a more satisfying, and that is a big conspiracy is better. There are all these forces at work to get rid of Lincoln, not just that the one guy assigned to guard Lincoln—there’s no Secret Service then—went across the street to get a drink. And Booth had played in that theater many times. He knew exactly the layout. He’d come in earlier. He’d arrange… I mean, it just, that’s the way it worked out.
Lex Fridman
And I have to say, it’s kinda interesting. I have to be honest with my own mind that, like, I love a good conspiracy. My brain does.
And I have to say, it’s kinda interesting. I have to be honest with my own mind that, like, I love a good conspiracy. My brain does.
Gary Gallagher
Almost everybody does.
Almost everybody does.
Lex Fridman
I think it’s, what is it? It’s maybe depressing or heartbreaking to know that so much destruction be caused by random events. You want there to be a larger system at play that makes you feel like there’s a meaning to this whole thing as opposed to the tides of history can turn on a stupid actor shooting one of the greatest, if not the greatest president in the history
I think it’s, what is it? It’s maybe depressing or heartbreaking to know that so much destruction be caused by random events. You want there to be a larger system at play that makes you feel like there’s a meaning to this whole thing as opposed to the tides of history can turn on a stupid actor shooting one of the greatest, if not the greatest president in the history
Gary Gallagher
That’s correct. Killing him, jumping out of the presidential box, breaking his leg when he hit the stage, limping off, and getting away. Yep.
That’s correct. Killing him, jumping out of the presidential box, breaking his leg when he hit the stage, limping off, and getting away. Yep.
Lex Fridman
Over 700,000 people dead, these epic battles, all of that. Lincoln survives all of it, and then there’s…
Over 700,000 people dead, these epic battles, all of that. Lincoln survives all of it, and then there’s…
Gary Gallagher
When they had the grand review in Washington, when Sherman’s armies and the Army of the Potomac marched over two days, this amazing display of the troops that had won the war, and troops who had run the war, one of the most common comments was, “Lincoln’s not here. Of all people who should’ve been here, Lincoln should’ve been here, and he doesn’t get to watch this. He’s not in the presidential box watching this.” And the soldiers talked about it too.
When they had the grand review in Washington, when Sherman’s armies and the Army of the Potomac marched over two days, this amazing display of the troops that had won the war, and troops who had run the war, one of the most common comments was, “Lincoln’s not here. Of all people who should’ve been here, Lincoln should’ve been here, and he doesn’t get to watch this. He’s not in the presidential box watching this.” And the soldiers talked about it too.
Lex Fridman
It’s heartbreaking, really, especially I would’ve loved to see his evolution as a leader, as a human being, and the words he may have, he may have found to direct us as a country, you know, in the, in the Reconstruction.
It’s heartbreaking, really, especially I would’ve loved to see his evolution as a leader, as a human being, and the words he may have, he may have found to direct us as a country, you know, in the, in the Reconstruction.
Gary Gallagher
Yep. Would’ve been different. We can’t tell how different. But it would’ve been different, and I think it would’ve worked more smoothly.
Yep. Would’ve been different. We can’t tell how different. But it would’ve been different, and I think it would’ve worked more smoothly.
Lost Cause and Confederate Monuments
Lex Fridman
What was Reconstruction? How rocky was it?
What was Reconstruction? How rocky was it?
Gary Gallagher
The white South liked to talk about the occupation of the South and how they were under the boot heel. There was never an occupation of the former Confederacy ’cause there never were enough troops available to do it. The most that were ever in the former Confederacy, which is three quarters of a million square miles in size, was 30,000 men, and that was for a very short period. By 1870, there were only about 10,000 men left. And the reason there wasn’t an occupation is because the Northern population wasn’t willing to either pay for it or keep men in uniform long enough to make the White South do something that they didn’t really care about, which was give full equal rights to formerly enslaved Black people.
The white South liked to talk about the occupation of the South and how they were under the boot heel. There was never an occupation of the former Confederacy ’cause there never were enough troops available to do it. The most that were ever in the former Confederacy, which is three quarters of a million square miles in size, was 30,000 men, and that was for a very short period. By 1870, there were only about 10,000 men left. And the reason there wasn’t an occupation is because the Northern population wasn’t willing to either pay for it or keep men in uniform long enough to make the White South do something that they didn’t really care about, which was give full equal rights to formerly enslaved Black people.
Gary Gallagher
The White North just wasn’t, they weren’t willing to do that. They were willing, largely because of Andrew Johnson’s intransigence in the summer of 1865 when he started to act like the South hadn’t even quite lost, they were willing to push far enough to get the 14th Amendment and the 15th Amendment. And that to me is sort of miraculous considering what the attitudes among white people were in the United States. You got the vote given to African American men, and you got the 14th Amendment. So that’s kind of amazing. And those don’t go away. They’re still there on the books to be interpreted correctly down the line somewhere, even though Jim Crow is a long and ugly episode of what comes. I mean, the Confederates just, they weren’t confused about being defeated.
The White North just wasn’t, they weren’t willing to do that. They were willing, largely because of Andrew Johnson’s intransigence in the summer of 1865 when he started to act like the South hadn’t even quite lost, they were willing to push far enough to get the 14th Amendment and the 15th Amendment. And that to me is sort of miraculous considering what the attitudes among white people were in the United States. You got the vote given to African American men, and you got the 14th Amendment. So that’s kind of amazing. And those don’t go away. They’re still there on the books to be interpreted correctly down the line somewhere, even though Jim Crow is a long and ugly episode of what comes. I mean, the Confederates just, they weren’t confused about being defeated.
Gary Gallagher
They were crushed, and so they vastly scaled back what they wanted. They had wanted a slave-holding republic. They scaled back for just having white supremacy and the, and the North, and, and that’s what happened. You ended up with white supremacy and Jim Crow intact- … which is a lot different than keeping slavery intact.
They were crushed, and so they vastly scaled back what they wanted. They had wanted a slave-holding republic. They scaled back for just having white supremacy and the, and the North, and, and that’s what happened. You ended up with white supremacy and Jim Crow intact- … which is a lot different than keeping slavery intact.
Lex Fridman
And that set off the whole process of the Civil Rights Movement that lasted decades.
And that set off the whole process of the Civil Rights Movement that lasted decades.
Gary Gallagher
I mean, Jim Crow is the clearest expression of the White South’s reaction to defeated Appomattox. “Okay, what, what can we get out of this? We can’t get what we wanted. This is the next best thing, and that’s what we’ll get. We’ll get Jim Crow.”
I mean, Jim Crow is the clearest expression of the White South’s reaction to defeated Appomattox. “Okay, what, what can we get out of this? We can’t get what we wanted. This is the next best thing, and that’s what we’ll get. We’ll get Jim Crow.”
Lex Fridman
You know, when you walk the ground of some of these battles, Gettysburg, is there something you can only experience when you’re there?
You know, when you walk the ground of some of these battles, Gettysburg, is there something you can only experience when you’re there?
Gary Gallagher
In my experience, you cannot replicate in a classroom what you can do at a historic site, I mean a really historic site. You get people to a place like that, I’ve given untold tours on battlefields and other historic places. You can talk about so much more than just what you can s- First of all, you can understand what happened on the battlefield better than reading about it or looking at maps ’cause the terrain makes it much clearer.
In my experience, you cannot replicate in a classroom what you can do at a historic site, I mean a really historic site. You get people to a place like that, I’ve given untold tours on battlefields and other historic places. You can talk about so much more than just what you can s- First of all, you can understand what happened on the battlefield better than reading about it or looking at maps ’cause the terrain makes it much clearer.
Gary Gallagher
But you can also talk about, okay, what are the men like in the armies who are here? Why are they in the ser- A lot of the things we’ve talked about today, what’s the status of the war now? What are the political situations behind the lines? What difference will this battle make? What will happen if the Federals prevail or if the Confederates prevail? Or you can use, at a place like Gettysburg, the memorial landscape as a wonderful way to talk about memory from the war. Look at the inscriptions on the monuments. What was important when they put these up? And the later monuments, it’s … The opportunities for a teacher on one of these sites are just almost unlimited.
But you can also talk about, okay, what are the men like in the armies who are here? Why are they in the ser- A lot of the things we’ve talked about today, what’s the status of the war now? What are the political situations behind the lines? What difference will this battle make? What will happen if the Federals prevail or if the Confederates prevail? Or you can use, at a place like Gettysburg, the memorial landscape as a wonderful way to talk about memory from the war. Look at the inscriptions on the monuments. What was important when they put these up? And the later monuments, it’s … The opportunities for a teacher on one of these sites are just almost unlimited.
Lex Fridman
And I don’t want to be too woo-woo, but I also believe from some of the experience I’ve had that the land has a kind of memory. I don’t know what it is.
And I don’t want to be too woo-woo, but I also believe from some of the experience I’ve had that the land has a kind of memory. I don’t know what it is.
Gary Gallagher
They have a speech in the cemetery at Gettysburg on the anniversary of Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address every year, and I was asked to do that a few years ago, and it was just… It was amazing to me. I mean, there have been very few things in my career that are like that, and we talked, we stopped in different parts of the cem- There were a thousand people there. It was an extremely cold, windy November 19th, and it was just… Talk about feeling the ghosts of the past. It was really something that I’ve only felt a few times in my life. It was really interesting, really interesting.
They have a speech in the cemetery at Gettysburg on the anniversary of Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address every year, and I was asked to do that a few years ago, and it was just… It was amazing to me. I mean, there have been very few things in my career that are like that, and we talked, we stopped in different parts of the cem- There were a thousand people there. It was an extremely cold, windy November 19th, and it was just… Talk about feeling the ghosts of the past. It was really something that I’ve only felt a few times in my life. It was really interesting, really interesting.
Lex Fridman
You’ve mentioned the Lost Cause a few times. What was the Lost Cause? Who created it, and what did it claim?
You’ve mentioned the Lost Cause a few times. What was the Lost Cause? Who created it, and what did it claim?
Gary Gallagher
The Lost Cause is the Confederate memory stream of the war, and let me just say very, very briefly, I think there are four main ways the generation that experienced the war remembered it. The one remembered by the most people would be the majority of white Northerners is what I call the Union Cause and that the greatest outcome of the war was putting the nation back together. It’s also good that slavery was killed. That’s important, but the most important thing was putting the nation back together. The Emancipation Cause memory of the war is, yes, it’s a good thing that the Union was saved, but the most important thing is you killed slavery. You got rid of this monstrous institution that had mocked that language in the founding documents.
The Lost Cause is the Confederate memory stream of the war, and let me just say very, very briefly, I think there are four main ways the generation that experienced the war remembered it. The one remembered by the most people would be the majority of white Northerners is what I call the Union Cause and that the greatest outcome of the war was putting the nation back together. It’s also good that slavery was killed. That’s important, but the most important thing was putting the nation back together. The Emancipation Cause memory of the war is, yes, it’s a good thing that the Union was saved, but the most important thing is you killed slavery. You got rid of this monstrous institution that had mocked that language in the founding documents.
Gary Gallagher
So those are both the winners’ versions of the war. The Confederate version, the Confederates are in a tough spot. How do we make something palatable out of this ca- catastrophic decision we made in 1861? We’ll do this to save slavery, and four years later, slavery’s dead, and a third of all our white military-age boys are dead. So here’s what we’re gonna do. First of all, it wasn’t about slavery. Let’s pretend it wasn’t about slavery. It was about high constitutional principles. It was about states’ rights-
So those are both the winners’ versions of the war. The Confederate version, the Confederates are in a tough spot. How do we make something palatable out of this ca- catastrophic decision we made in 1861? We’ll do this to save slavery, and four years later, slavery’s dead, and a third of all our white military-age boys are dead. So here’s what we’re gonna do. First of all, it wasn’t about slavery. Let’s pretend it wasn’t about slavery. It was about high constitutional principles. It was about states’ rights-
Lex Fridman
States’ rights…
States’ rights…
Gary Gallagher
… as opposed to central authority oppressing people.
… as opposed to central authority oppressing people.
Lex Fridman
Right, right, right.
Right, right, right.
Gary Gallagher
And second, we never could have won. It was a hopeless fight against long odds, and so it was a gallant effort in pursuit of constitutional rights. Okay, that gets us off the hook there. And who are we gonna look to? Should we talk about Jefferson Davis? No, we didn’t even like him during the war. I know who we’ll talk about. Let’s talk about Robert E. Lee. He won victories against the odds. So these are kind of the main tenets of the Lost Cause. It wasn’t about slavery. We never could have won. There’s no loss of honor in losing a battle you never could have won, but that you waged for high constitutional principle. And let’s talk about Lee ’cause we don’t wanna talk about Jefferson Davis, and there’s almost no one else to talk about except maybe Stonewall Jackson.
And second, we never could have won. It was a hopeless fight against long odds, and so it was a gallant effort in pursuit of constitutional rights. Okay, that gets us off the hook there. And who are we gonna look to? Should we talk about Jefferson Davis? No, we didn’t even like him during the war. I know who we’ll talk about. Let’s talk about Robert E. Lee. He won victories against the odds. So these are kind of the main tenets of the Lost Cause. It wasn’t about slavery. We never could have won. There’s no loss of honor in losing a battle you never could have won, but that you waged for high constitutional principle. And let’s talk about Lee ’cause we don’t wanna talk about Jefferson Davis, and there’s almost no one else to talk about except maybe Stonewall Jackson.
Gary Gallagher
Those will be our two boys that we talk about the most. And that is basically the short form of the Lost Cause. The fourth way that people remembered, and this came a little bit later, was the reconciliation cause where you… This is kind of white Northerners and white Southerners agreeing not to talk about slavery. Don’t talk about emancipation. Let’s talk about shared American virtues of courage and so forth.
Those will be our two boys that we talk about the most. And that is basically the short form of the Lost Cause. The fourth way that people remembered, and this came a little bit later, was the reconciliation cause where you… This is kind of white Northerners and white Southerners agreeing not to talk about slavery. Don’t talk about emancipation. Let’s talk about shared American virtues of courage and so forth.
Lex Fridman
So some of that still persists with us today. We look at the Confederate flag. So some historians argue for the long, quote, “long Civil War.”
So some of that still persists with us today. We look at the Confederate flag. So some historians argue for the long, quote, “long Civil War.”
Gary Gallagher
Sure, and it’s really long. It’s the Civil War that never ends kind of, and I certainly think that there are ramifications from the Civil War that have never ended. But I think the Civil War ended, and I think it ended in the early summer of 1865 with the destruction of the Confederate government, the absolute dissolution of all the Confederate military forces. I think that is the end of the Civil War. People at the time thought it was, too. What comes afterward, the long coda, Reconstruction is a 12-year coda to a four-year war that works out some of the difficulties of how you put the nation back together. And then beyond that, you have these different memory streams that have been contending with one another that still…
Sure, and it’s really long. It’s the Civil War that never ends kind of, and I certainly think that there are ramifications from the Civil War that have never ended. But I think the Civil War ended, and I think it ended in the early summer of 1865 with the destruction of the Confederate government, the absolute dissolution of all the Confederate military forces. I think that is the end of the Civil War. People at the time thought it was, too. What comes afterward, the long coda, Reconstruction is a 12-year coda to a four-year war that works out some of the difficulties of how you put the nation back together. And then beyond that, you have these different memory streams that have been contending with one another that still…
Gary Gallagher
Some of which still reverberate today, including what are you gonna do with the Confederate flag, which most of… There are a lot of nitwits around. They don’t even know what the Confederate flag was. They fly a rectangular version of the St. Andrew’s cross. That is not the Confederate flag. They call it the Confederate flag. The Confederate flag that had a St. Andrew’s cross wasn’t a rectangle, it was a square, and the actual Confederate flag had three big bars and then stars up in… It looks kind of like the United States flag. They don’t even know that, and they go around flying it everywhere. It’s a symbol and pretend that it represents all kinds of things. The Confederate flag cannot be divorced from all the times, that version of it, the St. Andrew’s cross version.
Some of which still reverberate today, including what are you gonna do with the Confederate flag, which most of… There are a lot of nitwits around. They don’t even know what the Confederate flag was. They fly a rectangular version of the St. Andrew’s cross. That is not the Confederate flag. They call it the Confederate flag. The Confederate flag that had a St. Andrew’s cross wasn’t a rectangle, it was a square, and the actual Confederate flag had three big bars and then stars up in… It looks kind of like the United States flag. They don’t even know that, and they go around flying it everywhere. It’s a symbol and pretend that it represents all kinds of things. The Confederate flag cannot be divorced from all the times, that version of it, the St. Andrew’s cross version.
Gary Gallagher
Every Ku Klux Klan group flew it. Every… It’s… You just can’t sanitize it. And I mean, I saw Confederate flags in Britain and Ireland. I mean, it’s become a sort of up yours symbol I think in some places- … of just sort of rebellion, not necessarily- … tethered specifically-
Every Ku Klux Klan group flew it. Every… It’s… You just can’t sanitize it. And I mean, I saw Confederate flags in Britain and Ireland. I mean, it’s become a sort of up yours symbol I think in some places- … of just sort of rebellion, not necessarily- … tethered specifically-
Lex Fridman
Rebellion against institutions.
Rebellion against institutions.
Gary Gallagher
… against authority and institutions- … and the ruling class and the… But that’s… But here it has a very specific meaning, and you just can’t separate it. It’s… People should quit trying.
… against authority and institutions- … and the ruling class and the… But that’s… But here it has a very specific meaning, and you just can’t separate it. It’s… People should quit trying.
Lex Fridman
So you taught at UVA and lived through Charlottesville in 2017. Can you tell me what Charlottesville was? What did it mean?
So you taught at UVA and lived through Charlottesville in 2017. Can you tell me what Charlottesville was? What did it mean?
Gary Gallagher
It’s really interesting because the day just before that, I did a long interview with Katie Couric, who was working on a documentary about Confederate monuments. And she and I spent two hours talking, walking around the UVA campus, talking about the Confederate monuments were there. She was a student at UVA. She said, “I didn’t even know these were here.” I said, “Well, most people don’t know they’re here. They’re not aware of this, of this part of the landscape.” We had no idea. Her film crew went out the next day and filmed what was going on when they actually had the violence and the crowd at the Lee statue, which was downtown. I didn’t go down to watch any of that.
It’s really interesting because the day just before that, I did a long interview with Katie Couric, who was working on a documentary about Confederate monuments. And she and I spent two hours talking, walking around the UVA campus, talking about the Confederate monuments were there. She was a student at UVA. She said, “I didn’t even know these were here.” I said, “Well, most people don’t know they’re here. They’re not aware of this, of this part of the landscape.” We had no idea. Her film crew went out the next day and filmed what was going on when they actually had the violence and the crowd at the Lee statue, which was downtown. I didn’t go down to watch any of that.
Lex Fridman
What’s your view on Confederate monuments? You know, the monuments that capture these periods, these complicated periods of our history.
What’s your view on Confederate monuments? You know, the monuments that capture these periods, these complicated periods of our history.
Gary Gallagher
Well, I have complicated views, but my main… But my first reaction to that is they’re not all the same. They’ve all… They’re treated as if they’re all exactly the same, and they’re not. There’s some… There are the, the Silent Sam… which was on the campus at UNC for years. It had… Some of the rhetoric when they dedicated that is really horrific. It’s horrible rhetoric, and I can understand why that needed to go. There’s the… what was called the Battle of Liberty Place monument in New Orleans that, that was a white supremacist monument very definitely that. I think that local places should decide these. Wherever the monument is, I think that’s who should decide, if the local… And I think there should be a process how they decide it.
Well, I have complicated views, but my main… But my first reaction to that is they’re not all the same. They’ve all… They’re treated as if they’re all exactly the same, and they’re not. There’s some… There are the, the Silent Sam… which was on the campus at UNC for years. It had… Some of the rhetoric when they dedicated that is really horrific. It’s horrible rhetoric, and I can understand why that needed to go. There’s the… what was called the Battle of Liberty Place monument in New Orleans that, that was a white supremacist monument very definitely that. I think that local places should decide these. Wherever the monument is, I think that’s who should decide, if the local… And I think there should be a process how they decide it.
Gary Gallagher
Let people have a public hearing. But they did that in Charlottesville actually, had a public hearing. I went and talked at it. Lots of other scholars and local people talked at it, and then they had a commission that they had set up, and the commission voted to keep the monuments in place but re-examine them with text that put them in context and then put up monuments, new monuments to previously ignored groups. The city council then came in and overrode that and decided they took them all down in Charlottesville. They also took down the Lewis & Clark monument, and there’s a… They took down all the monuments that had been put up.
Let people have a public hearing. But they did that in Charlottesville actually, had a public hearing. I went and talked at it. Lots of other scholars and local people talked at it, and then they had a commission that they had set up, and the commission voted to keep the monuments in place but re-examine them with text that put them in context and then put up monuments, new monuments to previously ignored groups. The city council then came in and overrode that and decided they took them all down in Charlottesville. They also took down the Lewis & Clark monument, and there’s a… They took down all the monuments that had been put up.
Gary Gallagher
I think many of the Confederate monuments, the kind of ones on courthouse lawns and so forth that were put up by the Confederate generation, that is the veterans themselves and the women who were alive during the war, tend to be monuments to the common soldiers that, that just kind of lost generation of young men. The later wave of monuments that came are… were put up by other groups that were not… They’re not really Confederate monuments. They’re put up by… The ones that were put up in the ’20s and ’30s. A third wave were put up in reaction to the civil rights activities in the ’50s and early ’60s, and then a fourth wave went up after the movie Gettysburg and Ken Burns’ series. But they’re complicated, and I see them as historical… And I understand the arguments on both sides.
I think many of the Confederate monuments, the kind of ones on courthouse lawns and so forth that were put up by the Confederate generation, that is the veterans themselves and the women who were alive during the war, tend to be monuments to the common soldiers that, that just kind of lost generation of young men. The later wave of monuments that came are… were put up by other groups that were not… They’re not really Confederate monuments. They’re put up by… The ones that were put up in the ’20s and ’30s. A third wave were put up in reaction to the civil rights activities in the ’50s and early ’60s, and then a fourth wave went up after the movie Gettysburg and Ken Burns’ series. But they’re complicated, and I see them as historical… And I understand the arguments on both sides.
Gary Gallagher
I understand people who just say they’re hateful. They bring up hateful remembrances. We should get rid of all of them, every one of them. I used them as teaching tools in Charlottesville for years with groups of teachers and students. There were five monuments in Charlottesville: two that were put up by veterans, two that were put up by groups later—the Lee and Jackson statues were those—and then there were two bronze plates on the side of the rotunda that just listed UVA graduates who died in Confederate service. Had about 500 names on them. Those were all of the Confederate statues there, and it– I used them to talk about different strains of memory and used recon– They’re– The Lee, the main tenor of the Lee statue when it went up was this reconciliationist Lee.
I understand people who just say they’re hateful. They bring up hateful remembrances. We should get rid of all of them, every one of them. I used them as teaching tools in Charlottesville for years with groups of teachers and students. There were five monuments in Charlottesville: two that were put up by veterans, two that were put up by groups later—the Lee and Jackson statues were those—and then there were two bronze plates on the side of the rotunda that just listed UVA graduates who died in Confederate service. Had about 500 names on them. Those were all of the Confederate statues there, and it– I used them to talk about different strains of memory and used recon– They’re– The Lee, the main tenor of the Lee statue when it went up was this reconciliationist Lee.
Gary Gallagher
He, Lee wanted the nation back together. Lee at Appomattox, that kind of stuff. Didn’t have anything to do with Jim Crow or white supremacy, although all the people who put them up probably would’ve– Clearly, we would consider them racist. They were in favor of white supremacy. But you don’t need statues in the post-war South and the Jim Crow South. You have the police force, state law, local law, state troopers. That’s what enforces white supremacy, not statues. The historian in me likes to use them as part of the historical record, interpret them, use them to explain different parts of U.S. history. That’s how I used them. Having said all that, I did, I do, did, and still do believe that it should be a local issue.
He, Lee wanted the nation back together. Lee at Appomattox, that kind of stuff. Didn’t have anything to do with Jim Crow or white supremacy, although all the people who put them up probably would’ve– Clearly, we would consider them racist. They were in favor of white supremacy. But you don’t need statues in the post-war South and the Jim Crow South. You have the police force, state law, local law, state troopers. That’s what enforces white supremacy, not statues. The historian in me likes to use them as part of the historical record, interpret them, use them to explain different parts of U.S. history. That’s how I used them. Having said all that, I did, I do, did, and still do believe that it should be a local issue.
Gary Gallagher
If a locality decides they don’t want them up anymore, then don’t have them up anymore.
If a locality decides they don’t want them up anymore, then don’t have them up anymore.
Lex Fridman
I think if we ignore history, we’re gonna be doomed to repeat it. I think that’s… We should never censor books. We should read books. We should read Mein Kampf. We should read books that capture a certain moment in history, even if it’s a hateful moment in history, even if it’s a destructive moment in history. We need to understand-
I think if we ignore history, we’re gonna be doomed to repeat it. I think that’s… We should never censor books. We should read books. We should read Mein Kampf. We should read books that capture a certain moment in history, even if it’s a hateful moment in history, even if it’s a destructive moment in history. We need to understand-
Gary Gallagher
Or have them read texts written at the time that have language that we wouldn’t use now. It helps you understand the ti- It’s, it’s-
Or have them read texts written at the time that have language that we wouldn’t use now. It helps you understand the ti- It’s, it’s-
Gary Gallagher
There are a lot of hard edges in the past. There are a lot of nice edges too that make you feel good, but there are a lot of really hard edges in the past, and if you’re gonna be serious about coming to terms with history, you need to accept that and deal with them and talk about them and not just try to erase them, I think. There are a lot of books that people won’t read now. I taught a graduate seminar at one point on foundational 19th century texts, and one of the texts I was gonna… that I assigned in the class was Huckleberry Finn. And a lot of the students said they wouldn’t read Huckleberry Finn because they knew it had language in it that they… And they didn’t wanna see those words.
There are a lot of hard edges in the past. There are a lot of nice edges too that make you feel good, but there are a lot of really hard edges in the past, and if you’re gonna be serious about coming to terms with history, you need to accept that and deal with them and talk about them and not just try to erase them, I think. There are a lot of books that people won’t read now. I taught a graduate seminar at one point on foundational 19th century texts, and one of the texts I was gonna… that I assigned in the class was Huckleberry Finn. And a lot of the students said they wouldn’t read Huckleberry Finn because they knew it had language in it that they… And they didn’t wanna see those words.
Lex Fridman
Even just reading about slavery, American and otherwise, is hard. It’s really difficult. But, like, we’re capable of that. We humans are capable of that. And this doesn’t somehow go away because we agree for it to go away. We’re always can return back to that, maybe in other forms, in other ways. We can do evil things unto each other. And I personally believe all of us are capable of doing evil things unto each other. And the dark reality of that is we too readily convince ourselves that we’re doing good.
Even just reading about slavery, American and otherwise, is hard. It’s really difficult. But, like, we’re capable of that. We humans are capable of that. And this doesn’t somehow go away because we agree for it to go away. We’re always can return back to that, maybe in other forms, in other ways. We can do evil things unto each other. And I personally believe all of us are capable of doing evil things unto each other. And the dark reality of that is we too readily convince ourselves that we’re doing good.
Gary Gallagher
Yeah, because if you’re doing good, you can do anything-
Yeah, because if you’re doing good, you can do anything-
Lex Fridman
You can do anything
You can do anything
Gary Gallagher
… and it’s justified if it’s good. If the end is good- … all bets are off. You can do anything that you wanna do.
… and it’s justified if it’s good. If the end is good- … all bets are off. You can do anything that you wanna do.
Lex Fridman
And reading history to realize that we need to think deeper and more critically about our actions and also that history is complicated, and there’s a bunch of different forces is really important. And also to realize that individuals can turn the tides of history, can like, can lead to progress, can stop evil doing when it’s happening. All of those things. Like, the power of the individual is immense.
And reading history to realize that we need to think deeper and more critically about our actions and also that history is complicated, and there’s a bunch of different forces is really important. And also to realize that individuals can turn the tides of history, can like, can lead to progress, can stop evil doing when it’s happening. All of those things. Like, the power of the individual is immense.
Gary Gallagher
Yes. I mean, coming back to the monuments for a minute, it, it’s also worth talking about that even at the time there were people who… A lot of Union veterans were against putting up Confederate monuments. Frederick Douglass had a problem with the Emancipation Monument that was in Emancipation Park on Capitol Hill and talked about the reasons why he had a pro- “Why is this the image that you chose for that monument?” Union veterans, they had a hard time with Confederate monuments, and I just think that it is… Almost everything can be a teaching tool, un- but it bothers me that certain books would be proscribed because they have some language that might bother somebody. And, and, and it… You need to… I mean, the language should bother you. So-
Yes. I mean, coming back to the monuments for a minute, it, it’s also worth talking about that even at the time there were people who… A lot of Union veterans were against putting up Confederate monuments. Frederick Douglass had a problem with the Emancipation Monument that was in Emancipation Park on Capitol Hill and talked about the reasons why he had a pro- “Why is this the image that you chose for that monument?” Union veterans, they had a hard time with Confederate monuments, and I just think that it is… Almost everything can be a teaching tool, un- but it bothers me that certain books would be proscribed because they have some language that might bother somebody. And, and, and it… You need to… I mean, the language should bother you. So-
Lex Fridman
I think history truly should bother you. It, it, the, it should be difficult. It should be a painful process to study human history because if it’s not painful, you’re not really understanding the full range of what we’re capable of.
I think history truly should bother you. It, it, the, it should be difficult. It should be a painful process to study human history because if it’s not painful, you’re not really understanding the full range of what we’re capable of.
Extreme political division in US
Lex Fridman
But anyway, you know, people in the modern day, I have to ask you about this, kinda casually talk about the new Civil War in America.
But anyway, you know, people in the modern day, I have to ask you about this, kinda casually talk about the new Civil War in America.
Gary Gallagher
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
As somebody who studied the Civil War, do you think our country today is divided to a degree that’s on the verge of something like the Civil War of the 19th century?
As somebody who studied the Civil War, do you think our country today is divided to a degree that’s on the verge of something like the Civil War of the 19th century?
Gary Gallagher
No, I really don’t, and I’m not… And I don’t mean to play down the degree to which… that we are divided. We are divided. We do resemble the 1850s now in that I think the first impulse on the part of people on either side of the political spectrum is to attribute the worst to the other side and to not acknowledge any good on the other side, to attribute the worst possible characteristics to the other side, and to have inflammatory rhetoric coming from various directions that really seeks to sort of stir up as much unhappiness and controversy as possible. I think we’re like the 1850s in that way.
No, I really don’t, and I’m not… And I don’t mean to play down the degree to which… that we are divided. We are divided. We do resemble the 1850s now in that I think the first impulse on the part of people on either side of the political spectrum is to attribute the worst to the other side and to not acknowledge any good on the other side, to attribute the worst possible characteristics to the other side, and to have inflammatory rhetoric coming from various directions that really seeks to sort of stir up as much unhappiness and controversy as possible. I think we’re like the 1850s in that way.
Gary Gallagher
But in terms of whether we’re really at the point where the kind of actions that I’ve dealt with in my study of the Civil War… I don’t think we’re anywhere near that. And I mean, I really don’t. If we get there, that will be heartbreaking, but I just don’t, I just don’t see it. I don’t see physical assaults against members of Congress on the floor of the Congress. I don’t see… It’s… States talk about seceding if things don’t go… Texas talked about seceding when Obama was elected. California talked about seceding when Trump was elected. But you know what? Neither one of them called a secession convention and had delegates go to it. When Lincoln was elected, they called conventions, they voted to secede, and they left the nation.
But in terms of whether we’re really at the point where the kind of actions that I’ve dealt with in my study of the Civil War… I don’t think we’re anywhere near that. And I mean, I really don’t. If we get there, that will be heartbreaking, but I just don’t, I just don’t see it. I don’t see physical assaults against members of Congress on the floor of the Congress. I don’t see… It’s… States talk about seceding if things don’t go… Texas talked about seceding when Obama was elected. California talked about seceding when Trump was elected. But you know what? Neither one of them called a secession convention and had delegates go to it. When Lincoln was elected, they called conventions, they voted to secede, and they left the nation.
Gary Gallagher
So that’s different to me than talking about it and threatening it and posing different scenarios.
So that’s different to me than talking about it and threatening it and posing different scenarios.
Lex Fridman
Are there genuine structural parallels between that time and now, if you can linger on that?
Are there genuine structural parallels between that time and now, if you can linger on that?
Gary Gallagher
Well, I mean, the states structurally, a state can call a convention if it wants to, and to talk about whatever it wants to talk about. So I suppose that structure is still in place, but I haven’t seen any serious movement toward doing something like that.
Well, I mean, the states structurally, a state can call a convention if it wants to, and to talk about whatever it wants to talk about. So I suppose that structure is still in place, but I haven’t seen any serious movement toward doing something like that.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. And I think there’s a real cohesion and resilience to the Union, as we’ve talked about. I think people are, despite the discourse and the bickering, there’s a real love of nation that maybe is not often expressed- … explicitly. But there is a sense that we’re all in this kinda together, and that we’re yelling at each other. Kinda like you have a family Thanksgiving dinner where there’s very passionate yelling and arguing, but there’s a kinda assumption that we’re still a family. At least that’s the hope. You know, one of the questions that the Civil War asked is, what is America? So I have to ask you from, from over 50 years of studying the Civil War… like what, what do you think? What is this country? What is this union? What are, what is the core that makes us who we are?
Yeah. And I think there’s a real cohesion and resilience to the Union, as we’ve talked about. I think people are, despite the discourse and the bickering, there’s a real love of nation that maybe is not often expressed- … explicitly. But there is a sense that we’re all in this kinda together, and that we’re yelling at each other. Kinda like you have a family Thanksgiving dinner where there’s very passionate yelling and arguing, but there’s a kinda assumption that we’re still a family. At least that’s the hope. You know, one of the questions that the Civil War asked is, what is America? So I have to ask you from, from over 50 years of studying the Civil War… like what, what do you think? What is this country? What is this union? What are, what is the core that makes us who we are?
Gary Gallagher
Well, I think in a lot of ways it’s much of what it was in the mid-19th century. I still think it’s a magnet for… I mean, we’re in an unbelie- we’re far more diverse now as a people than we were during the Civil War because we continue to act in the same way as it did in the Civil War, only they’re not Germans and Ir- people come from everywhere here now. I mean, they literally come from everywhere here now. And everybody doesn’t find a nice easy road here by any means, and there are lots of things wrong with the United States. But I still think the United States acts…
Well, I think in a lot of ways it’s much of what it was in the mid-19th century. I still think it’s a magnet for… I mean, we’re in an unbelie- we’re far more diverse now as a people than we were during the Civil War because we continue to act in the same way as it did in the Civil War, only they’re not Germans and Ir- people come from everywhere here now. I mean, they literally come from everywhere here now. And everybody doesn’t find a nice easy road here by any means, and there are lots of things wrong with the United States. But I still think the United States acts…
Gary Gallagher
Has a, has a role in the world that’s unlike, I won’t say any other place, but I can’t think of a place that’s quite like it, that has so many people coming from so many places, who somehow manage to fit into this mosaic. And then I think most people do have a way to fit into the mosaic, and then they become part of the old mosaic when the next group of people who are not like them come in, and those are the ones who are the new ones fitting in.
Has a, has a role in the world that’s unlike, I won’t say any other place, but I can’t think of a place that’s quite like it, that has so many people coming from so many places, who somehow manage to fit into this mosaic. And then I think most people do have a way to fit into the mosaic, and then they become part of the old mosaic when the next group of people who are not like them come in, and those are the ones who are the new ones fitting in.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, sometimes I think about, I’m sorry to romanticize it, but because I do think that Barack Obama was one of the great speech makers of my lifetime. And I, I sometimes imagine what Lincoln would have thought if he could attend an Obama speech. If he saw that Obama became president, that an African American became President of the United States of America. It’s, it seems like such a trivial thing to say, but I think it’s not trivial at all. It’s one of the great accomplishments of our country.
Yeah, sometimes I think about, I’m sorry to romanticize it, but because I do think that Barack Obama was one of the great speech makers of my lifetime. And I, I sometimes imagine what Lincoln would have thought if he could attend an Obama speech. If he saw that Obama became president, that an African American became President of the United States of America. It’s, it seems like such a trivial thing to say, but I think it’s not trivial at all. It’s one of the great accomplishments of our country.
Gary Gallagher
I think one of Lincoln’s great attributes was his humanity comes through so many things that he wrote. His real appreciation for people who faced long odds, worked against the odds, didn’t begin with advantages in their favor, and so forth. I think he and his ability to grow, I think he would have handled that actually pretty well. Much better than many other people I can think of from the mid-19th century.
I think one of Lincoln’s great attributes was his humanity comes through so many things that he wrote. His real appreciation for people who faced long odds, worked against the odds, didn’t begin with advantages in their favor, and so forth. I think he and his ability to grow, I think he would have handled that actually pretty well. Much better than many other people I can think of from the mid-19th century.
Gary Gallagher
I think he had genuine humanity. I think, I don’t think you can read all the things he wrote and not come to that conclusion. He also… But, so does, does he check all our boxes now? Of course he doesn’t. Was he prejudiced by our standards in some ways? Of course he was. But I think that he, I think he would have handled that pretty well, and he would have been, still been really tall. Even in our time- … he’d be way taller than most people.
I think he had genuine humanity. I think, I don’t think you can read all the things he wrote and not come to that conclusion. He also… But, so does, does he check all our boxes now? Of course he doesn’t. Was he prejudiced by our standards in some ways? Of course he was. But I think that he, I think he would have handled that pretty well, and he would have been, still been really tall. Even in our time- … he’d be way taller than most people.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. What you know, 250th birthday what gives you hope about the future of America?
Yeah. What you know, 250th birthday what gives you hope about the future of America?
Gary Gallagher
What gives me hope? I’m, and I’m a grouchy, not optimistic person in a lot of ways.
What gives me hope? I’m, and I’m a grouchy, not optimistic person in a lot of ways.
Lex Fridman
Are you?
Are you?
Gary Gallagher
Yeah, I am. I am.
Yeah, I am. I am.
Lex Fridman
You had some moments of optimism today.
You had some moments of optimism today.
Gary Gallagher
I was just gonna say, but I do have moments of optimism, and one of them I have is in the resiliency of this republic. I really do have… And it’s genuine optimism. I’m not just… And I know a lot of people will think that it’s naive, but I really… Because I see what it’s been through, and it’s emerged- … and it’s gone forward. And the trajectory, and this is something that Obama has commented on, and as have many others, the trajectory is in the right direction. With lots of things you wish were different, but the overall trajectory is in the right direction. I really do believe that, and that’s why I tend to be, in that regard, optimistic.
I was just gonna say, but I do have moments of optimism, and one of them I have is in the resiliency of this republic. I really do have… And it’s genuine optimism. I’m not just… And I know a lot of people will think that it’s naive, but I really… Because I see what it’s been through, and it’s emerged- … and it’s gone forward. And the trajectory, and this is something that Obama has commented on, and as have many others, the trajectory is in the right direction. With lots of things you wish were different, but the overall trajectory is in the right direction. I really do believe that, and that’s why I tend to be, in that regard, optimistic.
Lex Fridman
I think there’s a few folks on the interwebs that talk about the decline of the American empire, even using the word empire. I’m one of the folks who thinks that America’s flourishing. It is a beacon of hope and freedom in the world, and there’s a lot to criticize, the militarism and a lot of different aspects that are hypocritical, and is not always living up to the great ideals that it supposedly represents, but at least is striving towards that. And it is still a home for the great diversity of humans, as you’ve mentioned. That, I think, is one of the great, beautiful aspects about this country.
I think there’s a few folks on the interwebs that talk about the decline of the American empire, even using the word empire. I’m one of the folks who thinks that America’s flourishing. It is a beacon of hope and freedom in the world, and there’s a lot to criticize, the militarism and a lot of different aspects that are hypocritical, and is not always living up to the great ideals that it supposedly represents, but at least is striving towards that. And it is still a home for the great diversity of humans, as you’ve mentioned. That, I think, is one of the great, beautiful aspects about this country.
Lex Fridman
And the full mess of it, the drama, the arguments, the heated passion, the chaos, the thing that feels like chaos but I think ultimately will lead to progress. I love all of it. I think it is the greatest nation on Earth. So on this 250th birthday, I hope there’s 250 years more, and I’m truly grateful that there’s somebody like you studying our great history, and I’m grateful for this wonderful conversation today.
And the full mess of it, the drama, the arguments, the heated passion, the chaos, the thing that feels like chaos but I think ultimately will lead to progress. I love all of it. I think it is the greatest nation on Earth. So on this 250th birthday, I hope there’s 250 years more, and I’m truly grateful that there’s somebody like you studying our great history, and I’m grateful for this wonderful conversation today.
Gary Gallagher
I appreciate the invitation. It’s been fun.
I appreciate the invitation. It’s been fun.
Lex Fridman
Thank you, Gary. Thank you for listening to this conversation with Gary Gallagher. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, let me leave you with some words from William Tecumseh Sherman, a United States Army general in the Union Army during the Civil War. “I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation. War is hell.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Thank you, Gary. Thank you for listening to this conversation with Gary Gallagher. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, let me leave you with some words from William Tecumseh Sherman, a United States Army general in the Union Army during the Civil War. “I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation. War is hell.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Transcript for Anthony Kaldellis: Roman Empire, Byzantine Empire, Rise & Fall of Empires | Lex Fridman Podcast #498
This is a transcript of Lex Fridman Podcast #498 with Anthony Kaldellis.
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Table of Contents
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Click link to jump approximately to that part in the transcript:
- 0:00 – Episode highlight
- 1:24 – Introduction
- 1:51 – The Roman Empire and the Byzantine Empire
- 5:49 – 2,200 Years of Roman History
- 26:12 – Power, violence, and civil war
- 47:27 – Edict of Caracalla
- 1:00:23 – Crisis of the Third Century
- 1:14:52 – Constantine and the new Roman Empire
- 1:26:53 – Christianity in the Roman Empire
- 1:52:21 – Fall of the Western Roman Empire
- 2:05:17 – Eunuchs, Taxes, and Power
- 2:30:24 – Emperor Justinian and wars of conquest
- 2:47:26 – The Arab conquests
- 3:07:01 – Why the Roman empire survived so long
- 3:33:08 – Lessons from history
Episode highlight
Anthony Kaldellis
We’re talking about a society that was right in the middle of one of the main corridors of empire building and new religions in the world. This is the most dangerous neighborhood that you can possibly live in.
We’re talking about a society that was right in the middle of one of the main corridors of empire building and new religions in the world. This is the most dangerous neighborhood that you can possibly live in.
Lex Fridman
26 emperors were murdered in a period of 50 years.
26 emperors were murdered in a period of 50 years.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. It’s tremendous instability.
Yes. It’s tremendous instability.
Lex Fridman
Almost all were—of these emperors—were generals, and almost all were murdered by their men. So civil war was the norm, hyperinflation, economic crash, plus there’s a plague. There’s just a lot of chaos.
Almost all were—of these emperors—were generals, and almost all were murdered by their men. So civil war was the norm, hyperinflation, economic crash, plus there’s a plague. There’s just a lot of chaos.
Anthony Kaldellis
Here’s why I don’t think the Eastern Roman Empire is a military dictatorship. Even though, again, the emperors control the armies and the armies themselves will often have a say in who becomes emperor, like through the civil wars that we mentioned. The reason why I don’t think it’s a military dictatorship is because they almost never, very, very, very rarely use the army as an instrument of social control. Sometimes these eunuchs were extremely competent like Narses, Justinian’s general, who defeated the Goths in Italy in this massive battle. Like, this guy was a total hardass. And he’s this little old man. He was very old, and he was tiny, and he was a eunuch, and the Goths laughed at him, but he had the last laugh.
Here’s why I don’t think the Eastern Roman Empire is a military dictatorship. Even though, again, the emperors control the armies and the armies themselves will often have a say in who becomes emperor, like through the civil wars that we mentioned. The reason why I don’t think it’s a military dictatorship is because they almost never, very, very, very rarely use the army as an instrument of social control. Sometimes these eunuchs were extremely competent like Narses, Justinian’s general, who defeated the Goths in Italy in this massive battle. Like, this guy was a total hardass. And he’s this little old man. He was very old, and he was tiny, and he was a eunuch, and the Goths laughed at him, but he had the last laugh.
Introduction
Lex Fridman
The following is a conversation with Anthony Kaldellis, a historian of the Eastern Roman Empire, also known as the Byzantine Empire. This is a Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, dear friends, here’s Anthony Kaldellis.
The following is a conversation with Anthony Kaldellis, a historian of the Eastern Roman Empire, also known as the Byzantine Empire. This is a Lex Fridman podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, dear friends, here’s Anthony Kaldellis.
The Roman Empire and the Byzantine Empire
Lex Fridman
You’ve described that the Byzantine Empire is the Roman Empire, that calling it the Byzantine Empire is an invention of historians writing long after the empire has collapsed, that the people of that time considered themselves Romans, and that the so-called Byzantine Empire never actually existed, that it was, in every legal and cultural sense, the Roman Empire continuing unbroken.
You’ve described that the Byzantine Empire is the Roman Empire, that calling it the Byzantine Empire is an invention of historians writing long after the empire has collapsed, that the people of that time considered themselves Romans, and that the so-called Byzantine Empire never actually existed, that it was, in every legal and cultural sense, the Roman Empire continuing unbroken.
Lex Fridman
So let’s get our terms right in the grand historical context. What is the Byzantine Empire, and why should we just call it the Roman Empire?
So let’s get our terms right in the grand historical context. What is the Byzantine Empire, and why should we just call it the Roman Empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
So Lex, the burden of proof is on those who would assert that what we’ve been calling the Byzantine Empire is something other- … than the Roman Empire, because all of our sources are very clear about this. And we’ve known about this. We’ve always known about it. It’s almost a form of cognitive dissonance, right? It’s like when you know something is the case, but you carry on as if it’s not.
So Lex, the burden of proof is on those who would assert that what we’ve been calling the Byzantine Empire is something other- … than the Roman Empire, because all of our sources are very clear about this. And we’ve known about this. We’ve always known about it. It’s almost a form of cognitive dissonance, right? It’s like when you know something is the case, but you carry on as if it’s not.
Anthony Kaldellis
So the Eastern Roman Empire, this is the direct continuation of the ancient Roman Empire in the East, right? Everybody knows the Western Empire fell in the fifth century. And for many conceptions of Western history, that was sufficient. Like, that’s when we just called it. The Roman Empire fell in the fifth century. And we kind of, yeah, we kind of know that the eastern half survived, but we don’t want to include that in our cultural genealogy. And so we kind of pretend that it became something else. But in fact, it called itself the Roman Empire. Its subjects were Roman citizens. They called themselves Romans all the way down through to the end and beyond.
So the Eastern Roman Empire, this is the direct continuation of the ancient Roman Empire in the East, right? Everybody knows the Western Empire fell in the fifth century. And for many conceptions of Western history, that was sufficient. Like, that’s when we just called it. The Roman Empire fell in the fifth century. And we kind of, yeah, we kind of know that the eastern half survived, but we don’t want to include that in our cultural genealogy. And so we kind of pretend that it became something else. But in fact, it called itself the Roman Empire. Its subjects were Roman citizens. They called themselves Romans all the way down through to the end and beyond.
Anthony Kaldellis
So there are a number of reasons why Western Europeans wanted to think that the Eastern Empire is something different, and those reasons have created these models where they called it the Empire of the Greeks for 1,000 years, then they switched to Byzantine Empire for very political reasons. Now that’s collapsing. So we’re now moving into a phase where we have the long Roman Empire. We recognize that the history of the Roman state, the Roman polity, is something that lasts an extraordinarily long time. Very unique, almost, in history, from antiquity, like the archaic period, down to the 15th century.
So there are a number of reasons why Western Europeans wanted to think that the Eastern Empire is something different, and those reasons have created these models where they called it the Empire of the Greeks for 1,000 years, then they switched to Byzantine Empire for very political reasons. Now that’s collapsing. So we’re now moving into a phase where we have the long Roman Empire. We recognize that the history of the Roman state, the Roman polity, is something that lasts an extraordinarily long time. Very unique, almost, in history, from antiquity, like the archaic period, down to the 15th century.
Lex Fridman
I think it would be really nice to actually look just for a brief moment at the grand scale of the full Roman state as it lasted for over 2,200 years. So its founding, 753 BC, to let’s say the fall of Constantinople in 1453 AD. So can we try to give a big picture overview of everything that happened?
I think it would be really nice to actually look just for a brief moment at the grand scale of the full Roman state as it lasted for over 2,200 years. So its founding, 753 BC, to let’s say the fall of Constantinople in 1453 AD. So can we try to give a big picture overview of everything that happened?
Anthony Kaldellis
Okay, so first we have a period of the kings. This is almost legendary, from like the eighth century BC down to around 510 BC. So this is when Rome is ruled by a series of local kings. The kings are expelled, and the republic, or what we call the republic is instituted, and this is a regime that’s governed by mostly an aristocracy, but with cooperation from the people of Rome. In various ways, the arrangements change over the centuries. So that lasts for about five centuries. And then we have the end of the republic in the era of Julius Caesar and Augustus Caesar, when the civil wars lead to the creation of an imperial monarchy-
Okay, so first we have a period of the kings. This is almost legendary, from like the eighth century BC down to around 510 BC. So this is when Rome is ruled by a series of local kings. The kings are expelled, and the republic, or what we call the republic is instituted, and this is a regime that’s governed by mostly an aristocracy, but with cooperation from the people of Rome. In various ways, the arrangements change over the centuries. So that lasts for about five centuries. And then we have the end of the republic in the era of Julius Caesar and Augustus Caesar, when the civil wars lead to the creation of an imperial monarchy-
Anthony Kaldellis
… right, under Augustus. So that’s, we date that roughly either, yeah, 27 BC, something like that. And thereafter, it is an imperial monarchy for the next millennium and a half. Very broadly, we can divide that into two phases, one where the center of power is in Rome, and one where it’s in Constantinople. And, you know, we can debate the dates of when that transition takes place. These big transitions usually take place over long periods of time. They’re not, like, very sudden. So that’s the big picture. Kings, republic, imperial monarchy.
… right, under Augustus. So that’s, we date that roughly either, yeah, 27 BC, something like that. And thereafter, it is an imperial monarchy for the next millennium and a half. Very broadly, we can divide that into two phases, one where the center of power is in Rome, and one where it’s in Constantinople. And, you know, we can debate the dates of when that transition takes place. These big transitions usually take place over long periods of time. They’re not, like, very sudden. So that’s the big picture. Kings, republic, imperial monarchy.
Lex Fridman
The Roman Kingdom, the Roman Republic, the Roman Empire.
The Roman Kingdom, the Roman Republic, the Roman Empire.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And then the West and East Roman Empire.
And then the West and East Roman Empire.
2,200 Years of Roman History
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And then maybe what are the different terms that we could be using for the Byzantine Empire, including Byzantium? Is it also fair to say the Late Roman Empire?
And then maybe what are the different terms that we could be using for the Byzantine Empire, including Byzantium? Is it also fair to say the Late Roman Empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
So Late Roman Empire we use for both east and west, starting around the reign of Diocletian maybe, even a bit earlier, so during the third century AD. And that goes down to maybe the early seventh century. So that period we call Late Roman Empire. And if you ask me to define its principal characteristics, it would probably be the tax system and the administration, the bureaucracy— … of the later Roman Empire is that that comes from mostly Diocletian and Constantine’s reforms.
So Late Roman Empire we use for both east and west, starting around the reign of Diocletian maybe, even a bit earlier, so during the third century AD. And that goes down to maybe the early seventh century. So that period we call Late Roman Empire. And if you ask me to define its principal characteristics, it would probably be the tax system and the administration, the bureaucracy— … of the later Roman Empire is that that comes from mostly Diocletian and Constantine’s reforms.
Lex Fridman
And Diocletian was in the 3rd century.
And Diocletian was in the 3rd century.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, 284 to 305 AD. Yes. A very important reformer.
Yes, 284 to 305 AD. Yes. A very important reformer.
Lex Fridman
And we’ll talk about it, but let’s just do this whirlwind, and hopefully there’ll be automagical images somewhere overlaid, but—
And we’ll talk about it, but let’s just do this whirlwind, and hopefully there’ll be automagical images somewhere overlaid, but—
Anthony Kaldellis
Okay.
Okay.
Lex Fridman
So in 753 BC, Rome, a small city state, is founded, and in 509 BC, the kings are overthrown, and the Roman Republic is born. 390 BC, the Gauls sack Rome, and this, I believe, among other events throughout its history, is a formative trauma that hardens Rome’s security obsession. It turns out, throughout its history, people want to attack from different directions, and so you have to defend. So there’s two wars, as we’re actually saying off mic. There’s two kinds of military operations. One is wars of conquest and expansion, and one is more defensive. And we’ll talk about how the military changes throughout its history to allocate more effort to one versus the other.
So in 753 BC, Rome, a small city state, is founded, and in 509 BC, the kings are overthrown, and the Roman Republic is born. 390 BC, the Gauls sack Rome, and this, I believe, among other events throughout its history, is a formative trauma that hardens Rome’s security obsession. It turns out, throughout its history, people want to attack from different directions, and so you have to defend. So there’s two wars, as we’re actually saying off mic. There’s two kinds of military operations. One is wars of conquest and expansion, and one is more defensive. And we’ll talk about how the military changes throughout its history to allocate more effort to one versus the other.
Lex Fridman
In 264 to 146 BC, the Punic Wars and the survival against Hannibal transform Rome into a Mediterranean superpower. Then, like you mentioned, Caesar in 49 to 31 BC, Caesar’s crossing of the Rubicon to assassination of Caesar to the Battle of Actium, and then the Civil War dismantles the Republic and concentrates power in a single ruler, Octavian, AKA Augustus, the first Roman emperor, let’s say. Then 27 BC, Augustus founds the Principate, really low-key monarchy. And so officially, that ends the Republic, and then that begins 27 BC to 180 AD, the Pax Romana, which is a period of relative peace and stability. And a lot of the emperors we know of, the sexy, popular emperors all come from that period.
In 264 to 146 BC, the Punic Wars and the survival against Hannibal transform Rome into a Mediterranean superpower. Then, like you mentioned, Caesar in 49 to 31 BC, Caesar’s crossing of the Rubicon to assassination of Caesar to the Battle of Actium, and then the Civil War dismantles the Republic and concentrates power in a single ruler, Octavian, AKA Augustus, the first Roman emperor, let’s say. Then 27 BC, Augustus founds the Principate, really low-key monarchy. And so officially, that ends the Republic, and then that begins 27 BC to 180 AD, the Pax Romana, which is a period of relative peace and stability. And a lot of the emperors we know of, the sexy, popular emperors all come from that period.
Lex Fridman
Marcus Aurelius, who I’m a big fan of, from that period. Then that takes us to 284 AD, the guy we mentioned, Diocletian, who rebuilds the state. Emperors drop the first citizen mask, this perception of the way, and we’ll talk about this, the, the persona that’s presented by the state. 312 AD, Constantine defeats Maxentius at the Milvian Bridge to become the sole ruler of the western half of the empire, and then founds Constantinople in 330 AD. East and West are split in 395 AD. Visigoths sack Rome in 410 AD. The West falls in 476 AD as the last Western emperor is deposed. And then we sort of focus more on the East Roman Empire with 527. In the 6th century, Justinian’s reign. In the 7th century, Heraclius defeats Persia and then loses against the Arabs.
Marcus Aurelius, who I’m a big fan of, from that period. Then that takes us to 284 AD, the guy we mentioned, Diocletian, who rebuilds the state. Emperors drop the first citizen mask, this perception of the way, and we’ll talk about this, the, the persona that’s presented by the state. 312 AD, Constantine defeats Maxentius at the Milvian Bridge to become the sole ruler of the western half of the empire, and then founds Constantinople in 330 AD. East and West are split in 395 AD. Visigoths sack Rome in 410 AD. The West falls in 476 AD as the last Western emperor is deposed. And then we sort of focus more on the East Roman Empire with 527. In the 6th century, Justinian’s reign. In the 7th century, Heraclius defeats Persia and then loses against the Arabs.
Lex Fridman
There’s the Arab conquest continuing in the 7th century. In the 8th, the Arab siege of Constantinople fails. There’s the Macedonian dynasty that you have an excellent book about. And then the Crusades, and then eventually leading to Constantinople falling in 1453 AD. As a person who understands the full journey of it with a focus on East Roman history, is there obvious glaring holes or incorrect things in what I just said?
There’s the Arab conquest continuing in the 7th century. In the 8th, the Arab siege of Constantinople fails. There’s the Macedonian dynasty that you have an excellent book about. And then the Crusades, and then eventually leading to Constantinople falling in 1453 AD. As a person who understands the full journey of it with a focus on East Roman history, is there obvious glaring holes or incorrect things in what I just said?
Anthony Kaldellis
No, nothing incorrect. I would say if you wanted to produce a sort of very swift timeline of its history, it’s obviously important to focus on the moments when lots of territory was lost to foreign invaders, and these are actually three main moments. There’s the Arab conquests in the 630s. This is a decade. In a decade, that war was lost. It is the Seljuk Turk conquest of Asia Minor, modern Turkey, in the 1070s, and that was very swift and partly reversed afterwards, but only partly. And then there’s the Fourth Crusade, 1204, when the armies from mostly France sack, conquer Constantinople, and dismember the empire as much as they could. It didn’t last that long. The Romans managed to regroup and recover, but those are the three main crisis points.
No, nothing incorrect. I would say if you wanted to produce a sort of very swift timeline of its history, it’s obviously important to focus on the moments when lots of territory was lost to foreign invaders, and these are actually three main moments. There’s the Arab conquests in the 630s. This is a decade. In a decade, that war was lost. It is the Seljuk Turk conquest of Asia Minor, modern Turkey, in the 1070s, and that was very swift and partly reversed afterwards, but only partly. And then there’s the Fourth Crusade, 1204, when the armies from mostly France sack, conquer Constantinople, and dismember the empire as much as they could. It didn’t last that long. The Romans managed to regroup and recover, but those are the three main crisis points.
Anthony Kaldellis
They are very swift, but they cause incredible damage. For all the rest of its history, it is a state and society that is generally sort of consolidating, you know, regrouping, and generally engaged in slow but steady economic growth, territorial expansion on a small scale, but steady. So we can talk about this. It’s… I think it’s an important thing to keep in mind about the big picture, that the defeats were swift and kind of, you know, terrible but most of its history is one of slow growth.
They are very swift, but they cause incredible damage. For all the rest of its history, it is a state and society that is generally sort of consolidating, you know, regrouping, and generally engaged in slow but steady economic growth, territorial expansion on a small scale, but steady. So we can talk about this. It’s… I think it’s an important thing to keep in mind about the big picture, that the defeats were swift and kind of, you know, terrible but most of its history is one of slow growth.
Lex Fridman
There’s some traumatic events that have a big impact, but a lot of the developments we’ll talk about it might seem or feel like there’s a particular moment when those developments or changes in the way the government or the military is structured arise, but really it’s a gradual process.
There’s some traumatic events that have a big impact, but a lot of the developments we’ll talk about it might seem or feel like there’s a particular moment when those developments or changes in the way the government or the military is structured arise, but really it’s a gradual process.
Anthony Kaldellis
Exactly.
Exactly.
Lex Fridman
And so that’s the tension we have to be constantly dancing with.
And so that’s the tension we have to be constantly dancing with.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, so as historians, this is a point of method, and it’s very important. There are moments when, like, individuals with a great deal of power make choices that impact everybody else and have, you know, long-term consequences downstream. Constantine’s conversion to Christianity, for example, right? Not something that anybody could have or did predict. Okay. Otherwise, most of the developments that we identify by specific dates, like you mentioned 395, the division of the eastern and the western empires, those are conventional dates that we use to actually capture what is in fact a much longer process. There was no split between the two halves. It was one among many allocations of jurisdiction to, like, one son and another son in the east and the west.
Yeah, so as historians, this is a point of method, and it’s very important. There are moments when, like, individuals with a great deal of power make choices that impact everybody else and have, you know, long-term consequences downstream. Constantine’s conversion to Christianity, for example, right? Not something that anybody could have or did predict. Okay. Otherwise, most of the developments that we identify by specific dates, like you mentioned 395, the division of the eastern and the western empires, those are conventional dates that we use to actually capture what is in fact a much longer process. There was no split between the two halves. It was one among many allocations of jurisdiction to, like, one son and another son in the east and the west.
Anthony Kaldellis
The two halves were subsequently reunited, then they kind of divided again among different emperors. It’s just a process, and so we sometimes use fixed dates for what is in fact a process. Or for 476, the fall of the Western Empire, that’s just the last date. It’s actually a very long process that took decades. Right? So that’s just something to keep in mind, that sometimes we’re talking about processes, sometimes we’re talking about very discrete events with long-term consequences. Yeah.
The two halves were subsequently reunited, then they kind of divided again among different emperors. It’s just a process, and so we sometimes use fixed dates for what is in fact a process. Or for 476, the fall of the Western Empire, that’s just the last date. It’s actually a very long process that took decades. Right? So that’s just something to keep in mind, that sometimes we’re talking about processes, sometimes we’re talking about very discrete events with long-term consequences. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
Maybe an impossible question for a Roman state that lasted over 2,200 years, but is there a kind of through line, a thread, a soul that runs through the entire history of the Roman Empire? As you said, it’s a slow transformation and evolution. But if we dare call the whole thing Roman, Rome, the Roman state—
Maybe an impossible question for a Roman state that lasted over 2,200 years, but is there a kind of through line, a thread, a soul that runs through the entire history of the Roman Empire? As you said, it’s a slow transformation and evolution. But if we dare call the whole thing Roman, Rome, the Roman state—
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes
Yes
Lex Fridman
… is there some aspect, some characteristics that run through the whole thing?
… is there some aspect, some characteristics that run through the whole thing?
Anthony Kaldellis
I think so, yes. By the way, you know the metaphor of the Ship of Theseus? Okay. So in case the audience doesn’t know it, this is when there’s a ship, and it’s, you know, at sea, and over time, like, every component of that ship is replaced with some other component, so that by the end of the story, it has none of the original parts. But it’s, like, in a certain sense still that ship because of the story, right? The… Okay. So Roman history is different from, let’s say, Greek history or Christian history, right? Christian history is the story of a religion. It can be in any country, among any ethnic group. It’s here, there, right? It’s everywhere. But you still have histories of Christianity. It’s the same with, say, Greek culture—
I think so, yes. By the way, you know the metaphor of the Ship of Theseus? Okay. So in case the audience doesn’t know it, this is when there’s a ship, and it’s, you know, at sea, and over time, like, every component of that ship is replaced with some other component, so that by the end of the story, it has none of the original parts. But it’s, like, in a certain sense still that ship because of the story, right? The… Okay. So Roman history is different from, let’s say, Greek history or Christian history, right? Christian history is the story of a religion. It can be in any country, among any ethnic group. It’s here, there, right? It’s everywhere. But you still have histories of Christianity. It’s the same with, say, Greek culture—
Anthony Kaldellis
… or your Greek literature, right? It’s not a function of a particular state. Ancient Greeks were famously never united in a state. But it’s people who culturally accept that tradition as their kind of elite prestige culture and engage with Homer and Philo- and Plato and so forth. And they can be anywhere. Roman history is not like that. Roman history is very specifically the history of a state or a political community. And so this is the community of the Roman people, the Roman citizens. And it is in gradual evolution, but at no point is there a rupture in that history such that its members would ever think that something dramatic had changed, and that they’re no longer part of that story.
… or your Greek literature, right? It’s not a function of a particular state. Ancient Greeks were famously never united in a state. But it’s people who culturally accept that tradition as their kind of elite prestige culture and engage with Homer and Philo- and Plato and so forth. And they can be anywhere. Roman history is not like that. Roman history is very specifically the history of a state or a political community. And so this is the community of the Roman people, the Roman citizens. And it is in gradual evolution, but at no point is there a rupture in that history such that its members would ever think that something dramatic had changed, and that they’re no longer part of that story.
Anthony Kaldellis
So in the same way as the, as the ship I just mentioned, in other words, it’s the narrative that you tell about it where the changes that take place to it make sense only when you see them within the context of that story. It’s the same with Roman history. Yes, there are changes. Like, eventually everything changes. But it happens so gradually that it doesn’t seem that way to anyone living in it. And so the narrative of the history of the Roman people is what holds all of this together.
So in the same way as the, as the ship I just mentioned, in other words, it’s the narrative that you tell about it where the changes that take place to it make sense only when you see them within the context of that story. It’s the same with Roman history. Yes, there are changes. Like, eventually everything changes. But it happens so gradually that it doesn’t seem that way to anyone living in it. And so the narrative of the history of the Roman people is what holds all of this together.
Lex Fridman
How important is it that, so you mentioned Greek culture. So a lot of my friends who are Greek are extremely proud of being Greek. There’s certain cultures that are proud.
How important is it that, so you mentioned Greek culture. So a lot of my friends who are Greek are extremely proud of being Greek. There’s certain cultures that are proud.
Anthony Kaldellis
Sure.
Sure.
Lex Fridman
And it’s not a momentary ephemeral thing. It feels like a thing that has lasted for many generations. And so that is an engine that propagates through time that carries that culture forward. And so does a similar thing apply for the Roman Empire in a different way? Maybe ’cause you say it’s a political kind of community, that means a set of ideals. And we’ll talk about, because those ideals become even more concretized and explicit, I think, through the East Roman Empire, because one of the things you talk about is that the citizens of the empire are kind of all connected, that they are-
And it’s not a momentary ephemeral thing. It feels like a thing that has lasted for many generations. And so that is an engine that propagates through time that carries that culture forward. And so does a similar thing apply for the Roman Empire in a different way? Maybe ’cause you say it’s a political kind of community, that means a set of ideals. And we’ll talk about, because those ideals become even more concretized and explicit, I think, through the East Roman Empire, because one of the things you talk about is that the citizens of the empire are kind of all connected, that they are-
Lex Fridman
… engaged in this whole sort of machinery. Anyway, that’s a complicated way of asking, is, is there some elements that Greek pride, dare I speak, is there some kind of Roman pride that propagates the thing?
… engaged in this whole sort of machinery. Anyway, that’s a complicated way of asking, is, is there some elements that Greek pride, dare I speak, is there some kind of Roman pride that propagates the thing?
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, there totally is. You can find authors and historical agents who definitely display this or talk about it. But we don’t wanna make that the center of the story or the basis for any analysis because… So what you’re observing in your Greek friends is also the result of modern nation building, is it’s the result of modern systems education, and sort of national identities, and these are fostered and created through all kinds of media and institutions. It’s, it’s just a different situation altogether. What you find in ancient republics or medieval states is more something like a consensus to be ruled, to be, to rule and to be ruled in this particular political community. Now, some members of it may definitely, and in fact did have this kind of pride.
Oh, there totally is. You can find authors and historical agents who definitely display this or talk about it. But we don’t wanna make that the center of the story or the basis for any analysis because… So what you’re observing in your Greek friends is also the result of modern nation building, is it’s the result of modern systems education, and sort of national identities, and these are fostered and created through all kinds of media and institutions. It’s, it’s just a different situation altogether. What you find in ancient republics or medieval states is more something like a consensus to be ruled, to be, to rule and to be ruled in this particular political community. Now, some members of it may definitely, and in fact did have this kind of pride.
Anthony Kaldellis
I’ll give you an example. So there’s an ambassador in the sixth century, and he’s concluding a deal with the Persians. And you know, the Persians are skeptical ’cause, you know, Romans can’t always be trusted. But this guy says to them, he says, “And let me just tell you, you’re making a deal here with the Romans. The Romans. The name should say it all.” Like, you, okay, and you get a sense that this is, he’s expressing a certain pride in, like, being a bearer of the Roman tradition and speaking for the emperors and the Roman Empire. I mean, that’s, for him, this was something very, very momentous. You find these kinds of examples, so these people exist. But I wouldn’t wanna make that the basis for like an analysis of how the society works as a whole.
I’ll give you an example. So there’s an ambassador in the sixth century, and he’s concluding a deal with the Persians. And you know, the Persians are skeptical ’cause, you know, Romans can’t always be trusted. But this guy says to them, he says, “And let me just tell you, you’re making a deal here with the Romans. The Romans. The name should say it all.” Like, you, okay, and you get a sense that this is, he’s expressing a certain pride in, like, being a bearer of the Roman tradition and speaking for the emperors and the Roman Empire. I mean, that’s, for him, this was something very, very momentous. You find these kinds of examples, so these people exist. But I wouldn’t wanna make that the basis for like an analysis of how the society works as a whole.
Anthony Kaldellis
For the most part, it was something like a consensus where, you know, subjects or citizens, however you wanna call them, they agree to, um- Let’s say be taxed and be ruled by political authorities because of what they get in return, and there’s this kind of understanding of a mutual set of responsibilities. And my concern, among other things, is to try to explain how this society held together for so long. Pride, yes, among some people, definitely. You find it in the sources. But sources are, texts are written by literate, usually elites. So this is a small part of the population. We can’t automatically extend their attitudes to everybody else.
For the most part, it was something like a consensus where, you know, subjects or citizens, however you wanna call them, they agree to, um- Let’s say be taxed and be ruled by political authorities because of what they get in return, and there’s this kind of understanding of a mutual set of responsibilities. And my concern, among other things, is to try to explain how this society held together for so long. Pride, yes, among some people, definitely. You find it in the sources. But sources are, texts are written by literate, usually elites. So this is a small part of the population. We can’t automatically extend their attitudes to everybody else.
Anthony Kaldellis
So in dealing with everyone else, we have to work with different kinds of materials, different kinds of assumptions. We can’t just posit that they’re just proud of being Roman. They could have been. We don’t know that, though. We can see other sorts of things about them. Like, for example, did they pay their taxes? Did they try to rebel and leave the empire? So those are the kinds of things that, that, that I look for.
So in dealing with everyone else, we have to work with different kinds of materials, different kinds of assumptions. We can’t just posit that they’re just proud of being Roman. They could have been. We don’t know that, though. We can see other sorts of things about them. Like, for example, did they pay their taxes? Did they try to rebel and leave the empire? So those are the kinds of things that, that, that I look for.
Lex Fridman
Pride is one component, but there could be other explanations and factors that explain what motivates a soldier to defend the capital, for example. Like, what motivates a particular person to pay the taxes. And then this is, this is something that we’ll definitely talk about. But just to linger at the big picture, if the Romans from the different periods met, how different would they be from each other? Like, if I, if I brought to you… This is one of those, you know, there’s like- … blind taste tests you can do with food.
Pride is one component, but there could be other explanations and factors that explain what motivates a soldier to defend the capital, for example. Like, what motivates a particular person to pay the taxes. And then this is, this is something that we’ll definitely talk about. But just to linger at the big picture, if the Romans from the different periods met, how different would they be from each other? Like, if I, if I brought to you… This is one of those, you know, there’s like- … blind taste tests you can do with food.
Anthony Kaldellis
Pepsi and Coke.
Pepsi and Coke.
Lex Fridman
Pepsi and Coke. If I brought you a Roman from the kingdom period, the republic period, the early imperial period-
Pepsi and Coke. If I brought you a Roman from the kingdom period, the republic period, the early imperial period-
Anthony Kaldellis
I mean, I get asked this in a, in a, in a much more radical form, which is like if you take someone from, like, around 1453 who’s a Roman and a subject of this Roman, and compare, and, and, you know, compare him or have him meet, you know, in your imagination with someone from the ancient republic. Like, how-
I mean, I get asked this in a, in a, in a much more radical form, which is like if you take someone from, like, around 1453 who’s a Roman and a subject of this Roman, and compare, and, and, you know, compare him or have him meet, you know, in your imagination with someone from the ancient republic. Like, how-
Anthony Kaldellis
… could they find any kind of agreement on, on what it means to be Roman and recognize each other as belonging to that polity? This, this is a very difficult thing to… Like, now, I can point to a number of things that they would find eventually. And, you know, if you told them, “Yo, you’re both Romans, you’re both from this long history, now you have to find, you know, what you have in common,” I think they could find things. But before we talk about those, if, if you wanna get into it, let’s just say that the question can even be posed about Romans who live at the same time.
… could they find any kind of agreement on, on what it means to be Roman and recognize each other as belonging to that polity? This, this is a very difficult thing to… Like, now, I can point to a number of things that they would find eventually. And, you know, if you told them, “Yo, you’re both Romans, you’re both from this long history, now you have to find, you know, what you have in common,” I think they could find things. But before we talk about those, if, if you wanna get into it, let’s just say that the question can even be posed about Romans who live at the same time.
Anthony Kaldellis
I mean, if you take a senator from the age of Cicero and someone from the slums of Rome, who’s maybe the son of a slave who was brought from the East by some general a generation ago, and put them in a room and say, “Now, you discuss. You, you’re both Romans. What do you have in common?” They might have trouble in coming up with something.
I mean, if you take a senator from the age of Cicero and someone from the slums of Rome, who’s maybe the son of a slave who was brought from the East by some general a generation ago, and put them in a room and say, “Now, you discuss. You, you’re both Romans. What do you have in common?” They might have trouble in coming up with something.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? So let’s not minimize the sheer diversity of experiences and sort of life experiences of Romans who are living at the same time. The important thing is that a change is always happening, and from my standpoint this change is sort of cumulative, so it results in Greek-speaking Orthodox Christian Romans in Constantinople who at first sight might have little to do with Latin-speaking, you know, non-Christians or worshiping the ancient gods, Romans from a republic in Rome. And those are very, very different situations, and no doubt they would, they would look and seem foreign to each other, right?
Right? So let’s not minimize the sheer diversity of experiences and sort of life experiences of Romans who are living at the same time. The important thing is that a change is always happening, and from my standpoint this change is sort of cumulative, so it results in Greek-speaking Orthodox Christian Romans in Constantinople who at first sight might have little to do with Latin-speaking, you know, non-Christians or worshiping the ancient gods, Romans from a republic in Rome. And those are very, very different situations, and no doubt they would, they would look and seem foreign to each other, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
The question is, why do we assume that someone like Hadrian, right, an emperor from the second century sort of a very cosmopolitan figure who travels around the empire with his Greek lover and, you know, writes poems and is, has a Greek beard and, you know, loves Greek culture and has much to do with someone from the Middle Republic who’s, you know, some warrior who’s chasing down cattle from the Samnites. I mean, and yet the way we understand history is that, oh no, those belong together. Hadrian and this ancient Roman from the fourth century BC. But not Hadrian and someone, you know, an emperor a few centuries later who’s just like him, bilingual in Greek and Latin, who’s-
The question is, why do we assume that someone like Hadrian, right, an emperor from the second century sort of a very cosmopolitan figure who travels around the empire with his Greek lover and, you know, writes poems and is, has a Greek beard and, you know, loves Greek culture and has much to do with someone from the Middle Republic who’s, you know, some warrior who’s chasing down cattle from the Samnites. I mean, and yet the way we understand history is that, oh no, those belong together. Hadrian and this ancient Roman from the fourth century BC. But not Hadrian and someone, you know, an emperor a few centuries later who’s just like him, bilingual in Greek and Latin, who’s-
Anthony Kaldellis
… kinda cosmopolitan, who, you know, reads the same stuff, because we posit this rupture between Roman and Byzantine.
… kinda cosmopolitan, who, you know, reads the same stuff, because we posit this rupture between Roman and Byzantine.
Lex Fridman
One of the ways we can try to analyze this is, for example, looking at a very specific role in society across time. So we can look at soldiers, how they solve violence, for example. That’s one way. So you’re making me realize that we can just take 1,000 different professions and positions in society and really specifically look at what the experience of the world was like. And so one of them is the view on violence across time. And, and then the other is the view on the role of the government- … across time.
One of the ways we can try to analyze this is, for example, looking at a very specific role in society across time. So we can look at soldiers, how they solve violence, for example. That’s one way. So you’re making me realize that we can just take 1,000 different professions and positions in society and really specifically look at what the experience of the world was like. And so one of them is the view on violence across time. And, and then the other is the view on the role of the government- … across time.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s an excellent way of putting it. So take soldiers, for example. They swear an oath. Right? Now, we don’t have the oath for every given period. We have some approximations of it, some hints of what it contained, but we know that Roman soldiers swore an oath, like, throughout all of the centuries of the empire. Sometimes they might add, like, a Christian formula to it. Sometime before that, not. But they swore basically to protect the republic or depending on what term they used or the empire or the emperor. And this is something that they would have recognized very quickly. Like, if, if they met each other over time and said, “Hey, what was your oath like?” And they recited it, this would have made much sense to them, right?
That’s an excellent way of putting it. So take soldiers, for example. They swear an oath. Right? Now, we don’t have the oath for every given period. We have some approximations of it, some hints of what it contained, but we know that Roman soldiers swore an oath, like, throughout all of the centuries of the empire. Sometimes they might add, like, a Christian formula to it. Sometime before that, not. But they swore basically to protect the republic or depending on what term they used or the empire or the emperor. And this is something that they would have recognized very quickly. Like, if, if they met each other over time and said, “Hey, what was your oath like?” And they recited it, this would have made much sense to them, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
Or take, for example, a woman who runs a business, right? From any century of the empire. It, it would have been, especially the later you go, the, the more so, that this woman is enabled to do this by virtue of Roman law. Of certain, you know, Roman law of property and inheritance and, and marriage, but also regulations regarding who can do what and what kinds of properties women can handle and under what circumstances. This is something that Roman women had in common that many other cultures did not. So I’ll give you an example. So for example, in the 10th, 11th century, there are Jewish women who live in the Eastern Roman Empire-
Or take, for example, a woman who runs a business, right? From any century of the empire. It, it would have been, especially the later you go, the, the more so, that this woman is enabled to do this by virtue of Roman law. Of certain, you know, Roman law of property and inheritance and, and marriage, but also regulations regarding who can do what and what kinds of properties women can handle and under what circumstances. This is something that Roman women had in common that many other cultures did not. So I’ll give you an example. So for example, in the 10th, 11th century, there are Jewish women who live in the Eastern Roman Empire-
Anthony Kaldellis
… who realize that they have more rights in Roman courts than in rabbinical ones, and they take their disputes to the Roman courts. Now, the thing is that for the Romans, these are property matters- … not religious matters. But for the rabbis, these are religious matters. But the Roman courts trump the Jewish courts- … in the empire, right? And so you end up with a situation where Jewish women have more rights- … than Jewish women do elsewhere, because there Roman law is not operative. And there you go. Right? Like, these things matter, right? And that’s a function of imperial law.
… who realize that they have more rights in Roman courts than in rabbinical ones, and they take their disputes to the Roman courts. Now, the thing is that for the Romans, these are property matters- … not religious matters. But for the rabbis, these are religious matters. But the Roman courts trump the Jewish courts- … in the empire, right? And so you end up with a situation where Jewish women have more rights- … than Jewish women do elsewhere, because there Roman law is not operative. And there you go. Right? Like, these things matter, right? And that’s a function of imperial law.
Power, violence, and civil war
Lex Fridman
And this, this would be an interesting actually interplay between the law and religious institutions- … Throughout the East- … Roman Empire. So you argue that even though the personality of the various emperors varied, as we’ll talk about, and as they’re often venerated, celebrated, criticized, talked about, the late Roman Empire was projecting a persona to its citizens that was consistent throughout its history. Can you describe what you mean by this and describe the different detailed characteristics of this persona?
And this, this would be an interesting actually interplay between the law and religious institutions- … Throughout the East- … Roman Empire. So you argue that even though the personality of the various emperors varied, as we’ll talk about, and as they’re often venerated, celebrated, criticized, talked about, the late Roman Empire was projecting a persona to its citizens that was consistent throughout its history. Can you describe what you mean by this and describe the different detailed characteristics of this persona?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. So this persona, it’s what the governments or the emperor, the court, and the spokesman, the bureaucracy want their subjects to think this whole thing is about. Like, how is power being used, why, and for whom, right? And they do so in laws that they promulgate throughout the empire. Sometimes they have these laws read in church, for example, or posted publicly. They’re definitely eager to have them communicated to as many people as possible. But they’re also a function of imperial rhetoric so the way you praise an emperor, the way you talk about an emperor. You find this language in petitions, so this is a hugely important glue for this society, is that anyone could basically petition the authorities for let’s just say just about anything.
Yes. So this persona, it’s what the governments or the emperor, the court, and the spokesman, the bureaucracy want their subjects to think this whole thing is about. Like, how is power being used, why, and for whom, right? And they do so in laws that they promulgate throughout the empire. Sometimes they have these laws read in church, for example, or posted publicly. They’re definitely eager to have them communicated to as many people as possible. But they’re also a function of imperial rhetoric so the way you praise an emperor, the way you talk about an emperor. You find this language in petitions, so this is a hugely important glue for this society, is that anyone could basically petition the authorities for let’s just say just about anything.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s not technically true, but there’s a lot of petitioning going on. So, you know, if you think something’s wrong or you’ve been treated unjustly, you can petition local officials, even imperial officials. You can petition the emperor, you can… Right? And the expectation is that that petition will be read, addressed, and answered. It might not be answered in the way that you want, but it will be answered. And those responses contain this language also, right? So these are the different media through which the emperors are broadcasting this persona, and that persona is what? Basically, that the authorities are responsive to the needs of their subjects, that they are often accountable.
That’s not technically true, but there’s a lot of petitioning going on. So, you know, if you think something’s wrong or you’ve been treated unjustly, you can petition local officials, even imperial officials. You can petition the emperor, you can… Right? And the expectation is that that petition will be read, addressed, and answered. It might not be answered in the way that you want, but it will be answered. And those responses contain this language also, right? So these are the different media through which the emperors are broadcasting this persona, and that persona is what? Basically, that the authorities are responsive to the needs of their subjects, that they are often accountable.
Anthony Kaldellis
In other words, they understand that they are exercising public power, and that their mandate is to exercise it solely for the benefit of their subjects. They keep saying this. So renouncing any kind of private interest. In other words, “We’re not doing this for our benefit,” say the authorities. “We’re doing this for your benefit.” Also that they’re proactive. So the emperors are constantly saying that, “We’re planning ahead. We, we’re trying to foresee what problems you might have, and we are solving them before you experience them.”
In other words, they understand that they are exercising public power, and that their mandate is to exercise it solely for the benefit of their subjects. They keep saying this. So renouncing any kind of private interest. In other words, “We’re not doing this for our benefit,” say the authorities. “We’re doing this for your benefit.” Also that they’re proactive. So the emperors are constantly saying that, “We’re planning ahead. We, we’re trying to foresee what problems you might have, and we are solving them before you experience them.”
Anthony Kaldellis
And that they are also working very hard. So hardworking. In fact, one of the cliches that they keep using is sleepless. The emperors keep saying that, “I’m losing sleep over this. I’m not sleeping at night because I’m just worrying so much about your problems and how to solve them.” Justinian, for example, was publicly known as the sleepless emperor, and not because he was a demon whose head floated around in the palace on its own, which some people
And that they are also working very hard. So hardworking. In fact, one of the cliches that they keep using is sleepless. The emperors keep saying that, “I’m losing sleep over this. I’m not sleeping at night because I’m just worrying so much about your problems and how to solve them.” Justinian, for example, was publicly known as the sleepless emperor, and not because he was a demon whose head floated around in the palace on its own, which some people
Lex Fridman
That’s the thing?
That’s the thing?
Anthony Kaldellis
It was a thing, yes.
It was a thing, yes.
Lex Fridman
Okay.
Okay.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s a whole thing.
That’s a whole thing.
Lex Fridman
But sleepless in terms of worked so hard- … there’s no time to sleep.
But sleepless in terms of worked so hard- … there’s no time to sleep.
Anthony Kaldellis
He was a workaholic. That is conceded by even his enemies. All night he was up just, just hauling officials in at any old hour to talk about whatever, you know, wars and architecture and laws and religion and theology and whatever. So the emperors are projecting this image, right? So that’s what I call the persona. Tireless effort to work on behalf of subjects, to do so responsibly, to be responsive and accountable. In other words, if some of my officials breaks the law or oppresses you, I’m giving you instruments, like legal instruments, by which to hold them to account.
He was a workaholic. That is conceded by even his enemies. All night he was up just, just hauling officials in at any old hour to talk about whatever, you know, wars and architecture and laws and religion and theology and whatever. So the emperors are projecting this image, right? So that’s what I call the persona. Tireless effort to work on behalf of subjects, to do so responsibly, to be responsive and accountable. In other words, if some of my officials breaks the law or oppresses you, I’m giving you instruments, like legal instruments, by which to hold them to account.
Anthony Kaldellis
So that’s the persona. It’s very consistent and I think it’s part of the mechanism of tying the society together. In other words, if subjects think that their emperors are like this, right, they’re more likely to agree to the consensus of essentially paying taxes.
So that’s the persona. It’s very consistent and I think it’s part of the mechanism of tying the society together. In other words, if subjects think that their emperors are like this, right, they’re more likely to agree to the consensus of essentially paying taxes.
Lex Fridman
And you draw this distinction between rhetoric and action, what the authorities say and what they actually do. So when you say persona in the modern times, some of that could be reframed as propaganda- … for example. And propaganda implies that the rhetoric, that there’s a big gap between the rhetoric and the action. And one of the things you said you took away from reading Machiavelli is that we should judge people not by what they say, but by what they do. So how much of the Roman Empire’s government of what they espoused was merely rhetoric, and how much was true in how they acted?
And you draw this distinction between rhetoric and action, what the authorities say and what they actually do. So when you say persona in the modern times, some of that could be reframed as propaganda- … for example. And propaganda implies that the rhetoric, that there’s a big gap between the rhetoric and the action. And one of the things you said you took away from reading Machiavelli is that we should judge people not by what they say, but by what they do. So how much of the Roman Empire’s government of what they espoused was merely rhetoric, and how much was true in how they acted?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. This is a key lesson I took from reading Machiavelli, and I found this a very insightful way of thinking about politics, and I would recommend that anybody kind of practice this way of looking at the world, right? People and states and, you know, powerful people can say anything they want to. At the end of the day what matters is what they actually do. And this doesn’t mean that what they say is irrelevant, even if it’s discordant with what they do. But nevertheless in the case of the East Roman state, my research suggests that the emperors and the authorities were generally sincere in what they said. In other words, I have found that they generally did what they said they were going to do overall. Not perfectly, obviously.
Yes. This is a key lesson I took from reading Machiavelli, and I found this a very insightful way of thinking about politics, and I would recommend that anybody kind of practice this way of looking at the world, right? People and states and, you know, powerful people can say anything they want to. At the end of the day what matters is what they actually do. And this doesn’t mean that what they say is irrelevant, even if it’s discordant with what they do. But nevertheless in the case of the East Roman state, my research suggests that the emperors and the authorities were generally sincere in what they said. In other words, I have found that they generally did what they said they were going to do overall. Not perfectly, obviously.
Anthony Kaldellis
And of course, these are human beings we’re talking about. The, right, the human societies, there was a lot of, you know, corruption, and you name it. Abuse— … of course. Of course there is. But overall, I think that there was a sufficient level of understanding that the emperors are in fact doing this, and they were actually incentivized to do this. We can talk about how. Because they were also in a pretty vulnerable situation too, so they needed their subjects to be relatively content on this front.
And of course, these are human beings we’re talking about. The, right, the human societies, there was a lot of, you know, corruption, and you name it. Abuse— … of course. Of course there is. But overall, I think that there was a sufficient level of understanding that the emperors are in fact doing this, and they were actually incentivized to do this. We can talk about how. Because they were also in a pretty vulnerable situation too, so they needed their subjects to be relatively content on this front.
Lex Fridman
Isn’t this surprising to you? So, you know, from the outsider point of view, Roman emperors, even in the East Roman Empire, technically have a lot of power. You can even say in some cases absolute power, and yet they seem to be awfully worried … … To make everybody in the empire happy. What explains that? Like what, what explains the small gap between rhetoric and action in the East Roman Empire?
Isn’t this surprising to you? So, you know, from the outsider point of view, Roman emperors, even in the East Roman Empire, technically have a lot of power. You can even say in some cases absolute power, and yet they seem to be awfully worried … … To make everybody in the empire happy. What explains that? Like what, what explains the small gap between rhetoric and action in the East Roman Empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
A number of things, but ultimately it is that there is no right to the throne. And this is a function of the Roman matrix of politics here. In other words, so here’s a bit of a paradox. What we call the Roman Republic was the most imperialistic phase of Roman history. Like this is when the Romans did most of their conquering. What we call the empire is much less imperialistic in this way. That’s much more defensive in its approach, right? And yet our terms are a little mismatched in that way. The empire is more a function of that it has an emperor rather than it is engaged in imperialism. And that emperor emerged out of the republic.
A number of things, but ultimately it is that there is no right to the throne. And this is a function of the Roman matrix of politics here. In other words, so here’s a bit of a paradox. What we call the Roman Republic was the most imperialistic phase of Roman history. Like this is when the Romans did most of their conquering. What we call the empire is much less imperialistic in this way. That’s much more defensive in its approach, right? And yet our terms are a little mismatched in that way. The empire is more a function of that it has an emperor rather than it is engaged in imperialism. And that emperor emerged out of the republic.
Anthony Kaldellis
But emerged out of the republic in a very strange way. In other words, not as a dynasty that created the state. So for example, if you think of the Ottoman Empire, many other empires, they… The whole thing existed because this dynasty engaged in conquest and- … was successful in creating the state, and so the dynasty was like at the heart of the state. But that’s not at all the case in the Roman Empire. The emperor is a figure who emerged within a republic, and in order to create peace after the civil wars, those emperors had to, for a long time, kind of pretend that they were not what they really were.
But emerged out of the republic in a very strange way. In other words, not as a dynasty that created the state. So for example, if you think of the Ottoman Empire, many other empires, they… The whole thing existed because this dynasty engaged in conquest and- … was successful in creating the state, and so the dynasty was like at the heart of the state. But that’s not at all the case in the Roman Empire. The emperor is a figure who emerged within a republic, and in order to create peace after the civil wars, those emperors had to, for a long time, kind of pretend that they were not what they really were.
Anthony Kaldellis
By basically, you know, continuing to flatter the idea of a republic that is, you know, that has a first citizen maybe. “Oh, no, no, I’m not a king. I’m just, I have this office and that office and that office.” “Whatever the Senate has given me.” Now, we understand that’s a facade, but the fact that they had to create this facade at all is very important.
By basically, you know, continuing to flatter the idea of a republic that is, you know, that has a first citizen maybe. “Oh, no, no, I’m not a king. I’m just, I have this office and that office and that office.” “Whatever the Senate has given me.” Now, we understand that’s a facade, but the fact that they had to create this facade at all is very important.
Lex Fridman
Can we actually just linger on that? I mean, how much of this… ‘Cause you said they had to create this facade. Did Augustus, who started the whole thing, the first emperor of Rome, did he have to act that way? ‘Cause he kept acting like he’s not an absolute- … monarch, and he could have gone hardcore, destroy the Senate, just full hardcore rule, dictatorship.
Can we actually just linger on that? I mean, how much of this… ‘Cause you said they had to create this facade. Did Augustus, who started the whole thing, the first emperor of Rome, did he have to act that way? ‘Cause he kept acting like he’s not an absolute- … monarch, and he could have gone hardcore, destroy the Senate, just full hardcore rule, dictatorship.
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, then how, how does he govern then?
Well, then how, how does he govern then?
Lex Fridman
So, so he wants to be an effective governor, And he also wants to not be overthrown.
So, so he wants to be an effective governor, And he also wants to not be overthrown.
Anthony Kaldellis
Exactly. Because, you know, just because you ended one civil war doesn’t mean that there’s not going to be another. You have to create a consensus such that people don’t want to have another civil war. If he did what you said, which he in theory could have done, but that would’ve just led to more wars, right? So the problem is that the emperors, even those who come to power through violence, they can’t prevent other people from trying to come to power through violence because like I said, no one has a right to the throne.
Exactly. Because, you know, just because you ended one civil war doesn’t mean that there’s not going to be another. You have to create a consensus such that people don’t want to have another civil war. If he did what you said, which he in theory could have done, but that would’ve just led to more wars, right? So the problem is that the emperors, even those who come to power through violence, they can’t prevent other people from trying to come to power through violence because like I said, no one has a right to the throne.
Lex Fridman
We should also say one more thing where, dare I carefully say this, but it seems like riots and civil wars is a feature, not a bug of the system. This is a different thing that we have to the modern day, is because the threat of a civil war, a violent civil war where you overthrow the government and there’s just a lot of- … death and struggle for power is always a threat. That’s another incentive that, I guess the stick, not the carrot, but the stick for the emperor to behave.
We should also say one more thing where, dare I carefully say this, but it seems like riots and civil wars is a feature, not a bug of the system. This is a different thing that we have to the modern day, is because the threat of a civil war, a violent civil war where you overthrow the government and there’s just a lot of- … death and struggle for power is always a threat. That’s another incentive that, I guess the stick, not the carrot, but the stick for the emperor to behave.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. It’s the main one. In other words, just take the thousand years that I study. There’s something like 120 civil wars. Now, these are usually very swift. They’re over quickly, and they’re never about ideology. So they’re not like modern civil wars. Right? It’s not about slavery or the rights of kings or whatever. No, no, no. They’re solely about who has the power. All sides have the same ideology. They talk about, you know, the responsibility of government in the same way, right? They’re just competing over who’s the best man to do the job. Right? And so once you have that situation… And it might not be a civil war, it could be a palace coup, it could be a kind of fighting in the capital-
Yes. It’s the main one. In other words, just take the thousand years that I study. There’s something like 120 civil wars. Now, these are usually very swift. They’re over quickly, and they’re never about ideology. So they’re not like modern civil wars. Right? It’s not about slavery or the rights of kings or whatever. No, no, no. They’re solely about who has the power. All sides have the same ideology. They talk about, you know, the responsibility of government in the same way, right? They’re just competing over who’s the best man to do the job. Right? And so once you have that situation… And it might not be a civil war, it could be a palace coup, it could be a kind of fighting in the capital-
Anthony Kaldellis
… something like that. Once everyone’s taken their side and you have a winner, that’s the emperor and you often overthrow the previous regime. I’ll give you some statistics. Something like 46% of the emperors of Constantinople are overthrown through violence. 46%. And that’s almost half.
… something like that. Once everyone’s taken their side and you have a winner, that’s the emperor and you often overthrow the previous regime. I’ll give you some statistics. Something like 46% of the emperors of Constantinople are overthrown through violence. 46%. And that’s almost half.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? So that’s a huge, that’s a huge number, which means that every emperor is vulnerable and insecure, and they know it, right? So what they have to do is make sure that that doesn’t happen to them, and the way to do that is not by arresting and executing everybody you think might be a threat or just generally behaving like a, you know, a Caligula or a Nero. That will just get you killed. Like, they know this. So the best way to avoid that fate is to actually do the things that will make people happy so that they don’t support a rebel if a rebel decides to appear. And sometimes rebels would appear. There’s a kind of convention in Constantinople, like if you…
Right? So that’s a huge, that’s a huge number, which means that every emperor is vulnerable and insecure, and they know it, right? So what they have to do is make sure that that doesn’t happen to them, and the way to do that is not by arresting and executing everybody you think might be a threat or just generally behaving like a, you know, a Caligula or a Nero. That will just get you killed. Like, they know this. So the best way to avoid that fate is to actually do the things that will make people happy so that they don’t support a rebel if a rebel decides to appear. And sometimes rebels would appear. There’s a kind of convention in Constantinople, like if you…
Anthony Kaldellis
Sometimes you think, “Hmm, that emperor’s pretty unpopular and I think I can overthrow him.” What you would do is you would march down the center boulevard- … And, you know, you’d have your people just call the populace of Constantinople out to rally, to you know, maybe go to Hagia Sophia, the church, and just create a big crowd and call for the deposition of the emperor and, you know, maybe that would- And sometimes it did, and sometimes it didn’t, and the rebel or wannabe rebel would sort of proceed down the, the Mese, the boulevard, and people would just gradually just disappear, and then he’d be left alone- … and go up to Hagia Sophia as, as seeking asylum. Right? So that’s a bid.
Sometimes you think, “Hmm, that emperor’s pretty unpopular and I think I can overthrow him.” What you would do is you would march down the center boulevard- … And, you know, you’d have your people just call the populace of Constantinople out to rally, to you know, maybe go to Hagia Sophia, the church, and just create a big crowd and call for the deposition of the emperor and, you know, maybe that would- And sometimes it did, and sometimes it didn’t, and the rebel or wannabe rebel would sort of proceed down the, the Mese, the boulevard, and people would just gradually just disappear, and then he’d be left alone- … and go up to Hagia Sophia as, as seeking asylum. Right? So that’s a bid.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s someone making a bid for the throne, and it just goes disastrously bad. Other times, the people come out ’cause they hate the emperor, and they drag the emperor out and cut his nose off or whatever. So emperors are constantly trying to prevent that from happening, and the best way to do that is through goodwill.
That’s someone making a bid for the throne, and it just goes disastrously bad. Other times, the people come out ’cause they hate the emperor, and they drag the emperor out and cut his nose off or whatever. So emperors are constantly trying to prevent that from happening, and the best way to do that is through goodwill.
Lex Fridman
I’m trying to load in that kind of world ’cause it’s a different world than we live in today.
I’m trying to load in that kind of world ’cause it’s a different world than we live in today.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
There’s a constant inner workings of policy development inside government.
There’s a constant inner workings of policy development inside government.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
But the check on power is, like, literal, like, “We will murder you.”
But the check on power is, like, literal, like, “We will murder you.”
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, it depends on the period. Sometimes murder you, sometimes blind you, sometimes cut your nose off, but there were periods-
Yes, it depends on the period. Sometimes murder you, sometimes blind you, sometimes cut your nose off, but there were periods-
Lex Fridman
Thank you for the nuance.
Thank you for the nuance.
Anthony Kaldellis
… No, there were periods that were more civilized. We’ll just basically, you’ll get retired to a monastery.
… No, there were periods that were more civilized. We’ll just basically, you’ll get retired to a monastery.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Anthony Kaldellis
Okay. You’re right. So here’s what elections do. Elections give a government a mandate for, I don’t know, four or five years, and during that period, you may be unpopular, but you’re legitimate, right, because of the institutions. Whereas in Constantinople, we don’t have those kinds of institutions. We have instead an ongoing referendum. We just call it a perpetual referendum, right?
Okay. You’re right. So here’s what elections do. Elections give a government a mandate for, I don’t know, four or five years, and during that period, you may be unpopular, but you’re legitimate, right, because of the institutions. Whereas in Constantinople, we don’t have those kinds of institutions. We have instead an ongoing referendum. We just call it a perpetual referendum, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
And in fact, the emperors are, are, they’re conducting opinion polls in a sense because they appear in public. When they appear in public, everyone is expected to cheer and chant acclamations, right, like slogans. Right? So you have 100,000 people in the Hippodrome all chanting, you know, “Worthy” or “Many years for you, Augustus” or something like this. And if that happens, it’s great. But if you appear in the Hippodrome and people are, like, sullen or if the chanting is a bit tepid or if they’re booing, then you know something’s wrong, right? So you gotta find out what’s wrong. It could be something like the grain supply is, is, you know, not working or whatever. And so emperors are desperate to fix those problems.
And in fact, the emperors are, are, they’re conducting opinion polls in a sense because they appear in public. When they appear in public, everyone is expected to cheer and chant acclamations, right, like slogans. Right? So you have 100,000 people in the Hippodrome all chanting, you know, “Worthy” or “Many years for you, Augustus” or something like this. And if that happens, it’s great. But if you appear in the Hippodrome and people are, like, sullen or if the chanting is a bit tepid or if they’re booing, then you know something’s wrong, right? So you gotta find out what’s wrong. It could be something like the grain supply is, is, you know, not working or whatever. And so emperors are desperate to fix those problems.
Lex Fridman
And the Hippodrome is this big gathering place in Constantinople, which I guess a lot of people gathered at and did this kind of cheering or not cheering based on policy and—
And the Hippodrome is this big gathering place in Constantinople, which I guess a lot of people gathered at and did this kind of cheering or not cheering based on policy and—
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah
Yeah
Lex Fridman
… and whether the emperor is popular or not. This was democracy. I apologize to use that term, but-
… and whether the emperor is popular or not. This was democracy. I apologize to use that term, but-
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, yeah
Yeah, yeah
Lex Fridman
… in our conception of what that means, because what do we mean by democracy in the modern day is that the people somehow have a connection to who leads and how they lead, and this is—the Hippodrome was that connection between the people and the leaders.
… in our conception of what that means, because what do we mean by democracy in the modern day is that the people somehow have a connection to who leads and how they lead, and this is—the Hippodrome was that connection between the people and the leaders.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. Now, we can talk about modern democracy if you want. That’s a, I have my own views about- … modern democracy and, you know, how it works and how it doesn’t and, anyway, whether it is democracy, in fact, ’cause there are other models of democracy, like-
Yes. Now, we can talk about modern democracy if you want. That’s a, I have my own views about- … modern democracy and, you know, how it works and how it doesn’t and, anyway, whether it is democracy, in fact, ’cause there are other models of democracy, like-
Anthony Kaldellis
… ancient Athenian democracy, which is a whole other thing. But you’re right. So it’s not just in the Hippodrome. It’s wherever people assemble in large numbers. So this could be military mustering grounds, right? So the army. The army is also the Roman people in a way, and in some cases, the most decisive part of it, right? So if an army gathers together and they decide they want a different emperor, that’s serious, and that can happen out in the provinces too. That doesn’t necessarily have to happen in Constantinople. There’s also Hagia Sophia, so the people gather in the church, or they gather in public spaces like the Forum of Constantine.
… ancient Athenian democracy, which is a whole other thing. But you’re right. So it’s not just in the Hippodrome. It’s wherever people assemble in large numbers. So this could be military mustering grounds, right? So the army. The army is also the Roman people in a way, and in some cases, the most decisive part of it, right? So if an army gathers together and they decide they want a different emperor, that’s serious, and that can happen out in the provinces too. That doesn’t necessarily have to happen in Constantinople. There’s also Hagia Sophia, so the people gather in the church, or they gather in public spaces like the Forum of Constantine.
Anthony Kaldellis
So this can happen anywhere where a large number of people can gather, and it’s, I don’t know if you wanna call it a democracy as such, but it is definitely a form of popular, let’s say, consultation and a testing of consensus. I’ll give you another example. So in the 1190s, the emperor—and it’s Alexius III—he’s being threatened by the German emperor. German emperor’s basically, “You, you, you pay me a bunch of money or I’ll invade.” Just straight up extortion. And Alexius decides, “Okay, I’m gonna, I’m gonna gather this money. I’m gonna impose these taxes.” And he gathers the people in the Hippodrome, and he says, “You know, we’re gonna have the German tax.”
So this can happen anywhere where a large number of people can gather, and it’s, I don’t know if you wanna call it a democracy as such, but it is definitely a form of popular, let’s say, consultation and a testing of consensus. I’ll give you another example. So in the 1190s, the emperor—and it’s Alexius III—he’s being threatened by the German emperor. German emperor’s basically, “You, you, you pay me a bunch of money or I’ll invade.” Just straight up extortion. And Alexius decides, “Okay, I’m gonna, I’m gonna gather this money. I’m gonna impose these taxes.” And he gathers the people in the Hippodrome, and he says, “You know, we’re gonna have the German tax.”
Anthony Kaldellis
He called it the German tax. And there’s such an uproar in the Hippodrome against this that he was like, “Uh, that wasn’t my idea. I don’t know where that came from. No, never mind. We’re not gonna have the German tax.” Fortunately, the German emperor died and, and nothing ever happened, but it gives you a sense of how emperors, like, literally can backtrack when they see that the people are against something in a matter of policy, right— … like tax policy. So yeah, there was this give and take. So institutionally, the emperor might look absolute, as you called him earlier. In practice, no. No. The ones that did that didn’t end well.
He called it the German tax. And there’s such an uproar in the Hippodrome against this that he was like, “Uh, that wasn’t my idea. I don’t know where that came from. No, never mind. We’re not gonna have the German tax.” Fortunately, the German emperor died and, and nothing ever happened, but it gives you a sense of how emperors, like, literally can backtrack when they see that the people are against something in a matter of policy, right— … like tax policy. So yeah, there was this give and take. So institutionally, the emperor might look absolute, as you called him earlier. In practice, no. No. The ones that did that didn’t end well.
Lex Fridman
And we should say, going to Perplexity here, the Hippodrome of Constantinople was the main stadium and social center of the Byzantine capital, used primarily for chariot racing and imperial ceremony, and today survives in Istanbul’s Sultanahmet district. And the reason I looked this up, I wanted to see how many people. Shaped as a long U-shaped race course with a central barrier and tiered seating, it may have held from roughly thirty thousand up to a hundred thousand spectators, though exact capacity’s debated because archeological remains are limited. That’s a lot of people.
And we should say, going to Perplexity here, the Hippodrome of Constantinople was the main stadium and social center of the Byzantine capital, used primarily for chariot racing and imperial ceremony, and today survives in Istanbul’s Sultanahmet district. And the reason I looked this up, I wanted to see how many people. Shaped as a long U-shaped race course with a central barrier and tiered seating, it may have held from roughly thirty thousand up to a hundred thousand spectators, though exact capacity’s debated because archeological remains are limited. That’s a lot of people.
Anthony Kaldellis
Thirty thousand is definitely a pretty un-underestimate. The Hippodrome is still there. I mean, you can see it from, it’s like satellite photos. The shape of it is still there.
Thirty thousand is definitely a pretty un-underestimate. The Hippodrome is still there. I mean, you can see it from, it’s like satellite photos. The shape of it is still there.
Anthony Kaldellis
And actually some parts of the build, the, the Sphendone, the, the sling around the southern side is still there. You can walk around it. And it’s right next to the palace. In other words, emperors didn’t have to go far. Now, sometimes there are events for replacing an emperor. So say the emperor dies in his sleep, and there’s no heir. This happens in 491, for example. And so the people gather in the Hippodrome in order to have a discussion with the court about whom to appoint. Now, in those kinds of contexts, it’s entirely possible that there are people also in the arena, like not just in the stands. I think some military units might have just been arrayed there rather than in the stands.
And actually some parts of the build, the, the Sphendone, the, the sling around the southern side is still there. You can walk around it. And it’s right next to the palace. In other words, emperors didn’t have to go far. Now, sometimes there are events for replacing an emperor. So say the emperor dies in his sleep, and there’s no heir. This happens in 491, for example. And so the people gather in the Hippodrome in order to have a discussion with the court about whom to appoint. Now, in those kinds of contexts, it’s entirely possible that there are people also in the arena, like not just in the stands. I think some military units might have just been arrayed there rather than in the stands.
Anthony Kaldellis
So you can get more people than what we project might fit in the stands, ’cause they’re not having the races on that day.
So you can get more people than what we project might fit in the stands, ’cause they’re not having the races on that day.
Lex Fridman
We should say, so like, I think the thing that was emphasized in the first paragraph is the, the athletic events and the entertainment events, right? Like the imperial ceremony. But there is a, a sort of a political gathering was also popular. The Hippodrome was not just for sport. It was where emperors appeared before the people, where acclamations, public punishments, and political demonstrations took place, and where the rival circus factions, blues, greens, reds, whites, became powerful social and sometimes paramilitary forces. And this goes on and on and on. So this was a place—
We should say, so like, I think the thing that was emphasized in the first paragraph is the, the athletic events and the entertainment events, right? Like the imperial ceremony. But there is a, a sort of a political gathering was also popular. The Hippodrome was not just for sport. It was where emperors appeared before the people, where acclamations, public punishments, and political demonstrations took place, and where the rival circus factions, blues, greens, reds, whites, became powerful social and sometimes paramilitary forces. And this goes on and on and on. So this was a place—
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, it’s a very important place. Yeah
Oh, it’s a very important place. Yeah
Lex Fridman
… for people to speak to the leader.
… for people to speak to the leader.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. Vent sometimes. Even insult them.
Yeah. Vent sometimes. Even insult them.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. This is fascinating. I mean, it’s human civilization. It’s converged towards a mechanism that has clearly worked, because for the empire in the East stood for a thousand years. So it’s, it’s fascinating. We as humans, throughout our history, we try to figure out, okay, how do we figure out how to govern large collections of humans in a way that they’re represented, in the way that they don’t riot, they don’t rebel. In the way that we flourish together as a people, all this, all this kind of stuff. So this is a real… The East Roman Empire is a real study of something that seemed to have worked. There’s lessons there even for the modern times, I think. And modern times, again, is very early human civilization.
Yeah. This is fascinating. I mean, it’s human civilization. It’s converged towards a mechanism that has clearly worked, because for the empire in the East stood for a thousand years. So it’s, it’s fascinating. We as humans, throughout our history, we try to figure out, okay, how do we figure out how to govern large collections of humans in a way that they’re represented, in the way that they don’t riot, they don’t rebel. In the way that we flourish together as a people, all this, all this kind of stuff. So this is a real… The East Roman Empire is a real study of something that seemed to have worked. There’s lessons there even for the modern times, I think. And modern times, again, is very early human civilization.
Anthony Kaldellis
From a certain standpoint, yes, we are still early in—
From a certain standpoint, yes, we are still early in—
Lex Fridman
Trying to figure it out
Trying to figure it out
Anthony Kaldellis
… trying to figure it out. Yes. Now, mind you, I’m not advocating for this type of social organization and government. What I’m trying to do as a historian is understand how and why it survived and also to find the ways that it worked, because it did work. We know that much. We have to start from that. It survived. It was resilient. There was a lot of, you know, give and take in the exercise of power, and I want to understand the mechanisms of that.
… trying to figure it out. Yes. Now, mind you, I’m not advocating for this type of social organization and government. What I’m trying to do as a historian is understand how and why it survived and also to find the ways that it worked, because it did work. We know that much. We have to start from that. It survived. It was resilient. There was a lot of, you know, give and take in the exercise of power, and I want to understand the mechanisms of that.
Edict of Caracalla
Lex Fridman
So if we can, before we go to Emperor Constantine the First and the founding of Constantinople, can we look at some maybe seminal events that led up to some of the topics we’ll be talking about? So one of them, maybe tell me if this is not as interesting as I think it is, but the Edict of Caracalla in 212 AD. So this is where you described that starting with Augustus in the early imperial period, government saw itself as a protector of the Roman citizens, which is a minority of the people living in the Roman Empire. It doesn’t consider the provincials. And then you described that the Edict of Caracalla extended full Roman citizenships to basically all free inhabitants of the Roman Empire. So what is it? Why was it done? Why is it important? And how did it change the Roman Empire?
So if we can, before we go to Emperor Constantine the First and the founding of Constantinople, can we look at some maybe seminal events that led up to some of the topics we’ll be talking about? So one of them, maybe tell me if this is not as interesting as I think it is, but the Edict of Caracalla in 212 AD. So this is where you described that starting with Augustus in the early imperial period, government saw itself as a protector of the Roman citizens, which is a minority of the people living in the Roman Empire. It doesn’t consider the provincials. And then you described that the Edict of Caracalla extended full Roman citizenships to basically all free inhabitants of the Roman Empire. So what is it? Why was it done? Why is it important? And how did it change the Roman Empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
Right. I agree with you that this is, in fact, a very important… It’s a, it’s a real turning point in a sense, but it also is part of a process. So for various reasons, the Roman polity tended to bestow its metropolitan citizenship, that is, Roman citizenship on its allies, and eventually in time, on many people that it had conquered. And it had various mechanisms for doing so. It could bestow block grants. Sometimes it allowed its generals to bestow citizenship on people they thought would, you know, would be necessary players for controlling local societies. Sometimes they even allowed foreign cities to, like non-Roman cities, to decide who would get Roman citizenship by basically electing them to certain kinds of offices.
Right. I agree with you that this is, in fact, a very important… It’s a, it’s a real turning point in a sense, but it also is part of a process. So for various reasons, the Roman polity tended to bestow its metropolitan citizenship, that is, Roman citizenship on its allies, and eventually in time, on many people that it had conquered. And it had various mechanisms for doing so. It could bestow block grants. Sometimes it allowed its generals to bestow citizenship on people they thought would, you know, would be necessary players for controlling local societies. Sometimes they even allowed foreign cities to, like non-Roman cities, to decide who would get Roman citizenship by basically electing them to certain kinds of offices.
Anthony Kaldellis
Like they, they outsourced a lot of this. And so you have over time the steady growth of a Roman community of citizens who are not all in Rome, and who are not all of Roman origin, whatever that means, but they, they were not descended from people who were from Rome. And this proceeds, you know, it expands, it expands, it expands. By Caracalla’s time, so early third century AD, we can estimate that maybe at, at most a third of the free citizens of the empire are Roman citizens. Everyone else has local citizenship, like you’re Alexandrian or Athenian or, or whatever. And with… You’re subject to those laws. This emperor, Caracalla, now that’s his nickname. His reigning name is Marcus Aurelius Antoninus. So just like Marcus Aurelius, it’s the same name two generations later.
Like they, they outsourced a lot of this. And so you have over time the steady growth of a Roman community of citizens who are not all in Rome, and who are not all of Roman origin, whatever that means, but they, they were not descended from people who were from Rome. And this proceeds, you know, it expands, it expands, it expands. By Caracalla’s time, so early third century AD, we can estimate that maybe at, at most a third of the free citizens of the empire are Roman citizens. Everyone else has local citizenship, like you’re Alexandrian or Athenian or, or whatever. And with… You’re subject to those laws. This emperor, Caracalla, now that’s his nickname. His reigning name is Marcus Aurelius Antoninus. So just like Marcus Aurelius, it’s the same name two generations later.
Lex Fridman
Some badass names for emperors, by the way. I don’t know if it’s the chicken or the egg, but just- … some epic names.
Some badass names for emperors, by the way. I don’t know if it’s the chicken or the egg, but just- … some epic names.
Anthony Kaldellis
They’ve been remembered that way, and so we read that back into the name-
They’ve been remembered that way, and so we read that back into the name-
Lex Fridman
Yes, that’s true.
Yes, that’s true.
Anthony Kaldellis
… and absolutely, yes.
… and absolutely, yes.
Lex Fridman
But anyway, Caracalla. Yeah.
But anyway, Caracalla. Yeah.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, so he issues this edict in 212 called the Constitutio Antoniniana, named after him. Some people at the time called it the Divine Decree, which basically extended citizenship to everybody. Now, we don’t know exactly why he did so. We can guess the reasons that he said he did so, and this was for religious reasons. In other words, he wanted people to go to the temples and pray and give thanks to the gods for him, for his survival out of a coup.
Yeah, so he issues this edict in 212 called the Constitutio Antoniniana, named after him. Some people at the time called it the Divine Decree, which basically extended citizenship to everybody. Now, we don’t know exactly why he did so. We can guess the reasons that he said he did so, and this was for religious reasons. In other words, he wanted people to go to the temples and pray and give thanks to the gods for him, for his survival out of a coup.
Anthony Kaldellis
Which is whatever. And it’s possible that there was some kind of religious motivation here, and he wanted everybody to do so as Roman citizens to honor the Roman gods and something like that. Other historians at the time said he did it for tax reasons. We don’t know exactly. There might even have been a kind of ideology of a unified community across the empire playing in his, if not in his mind, in that of the jurists, that is the legal advisors that he had. So that’s possible. But less interesting than his motivations, more interesting are the consequences of this—
Which is whatever. And it’s possible that there was some kind of religious motivation here, and he wanted everybody to do so as Roman citizens to honor the Roman gods and something like that. Other historians at the time said he did it for tax reasons. We don’t know exactly. There might even have been a kind of ideology of a unified community across the empire playing in his, if not in his mind, in that of the jurists, that is the legal advisors that he had. So that’s possible. But less interesting than his motivations, more interesting are the consequences of this—
Anthony Kaldellis
… and what it tells us about the Roman community. So imagine a situation where, like, no modern empire has ever done this really, right? When what’s significant about the Roman case is that not only did they extend citizenship to everybody, but they meant it. This is something that had teeth. In other words, it meant that the rights and opportunities that were available to Roman citizens, say, in the Roman Senate at Rome- … are now available to everybody. And within a generation, you have a situation where, like, all of the emperors are provincials, right? All the most powerful people in the empire are from the provinces.
… and what it tells us about the Roman community. So imagine a situation where, like, no modern empire has ever done this really, right? When what’s significant about the Roman case is that not only did they extend citizenship to everybody, but they meant it. This is something that had teeth. In other words, it meant that the rights and opportunities that were available to Roman citizens, say, in the Roman Senate at Rome- … are now available to everybody. And within a generation, you have a situation where, like, all of the emperors are provincials, right? All the most powerful people in the empire are from the provinces.
Lex Fridman
This is, like, mind-breaking, mind-blowing. This is incredible. The fact that the Roman Empire was able to do this, and it stuck.
This is, like, mind-breaking, mind-blowing. This is incredible. The fact that the Roman Empire was able to do this, and it stuck.
Anthony Kaldellis
They did it, and they meant it.
They did it, and they meant it.
Lex Fridman
And they meant it.
And they meant it.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
They implemented it. It was real. That tells you, that’s an important thing that tells you a lot of information about the populace of the Roman Empire. That the fact that it stuck, that the government meant it, that the system encouraged, incentivized the government to mean it. It’s incredible.
They implemented it. It was real. That tells you, that’s an important thing that tells you a lot of information about the populace of the Roman Empire. That the fact that it stuck, that the government meant it, that the system encouraged, incentivized the government to mean it. It’s incredible.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, and there’s a law of citizenship, and it, basically it says something like, “Anyone born within the Roman Empire is a Roman citizen.” And the Roman jurists and policymakers who were behind this had some very interesting ideas about, you know, creating this kind of community. Look, like, imagine if, I mean, it’s almost impossible to, to imagine, but the, the British at the time of the peak of the empire bestowed British citizenship on everyone, including in India, and, like, suddenly made positions of power in London available to people from India, like, including the throne. Like, it’s just unthinkable.
Yeah, and there’s a law of citizenship, and it, basically it says something like, “Anyone born within the Roman Empire is a Roman citizen.” And the Roman jurists and policymakers who were behind this had some very interesting ideas about, you know, creating this kind of community. Look, like, imagine if, I mean, it’s almost impossible to, to imagine, but the, the British at the time of the peak of the empire bestowed British citizenship on everyone, including in India, and, like, suddenly made positions of power in London available to people from India, like, including the throne. Like, it’s just unthinkable.
Anthony Kaldellis
And that has to do, you know, with race and colonialism and all kinds of things, right? But not in the Roman Empire. So we have a situation where the emperors are all from the provinces. The most powerful officials are all from the provinces. And so a century later, when Constantinople is created, this is, it’s created, right, like, in, in the Bosporus, so, like, where modern Istanbul is, in the Eastern Roman Empire. It’s created within the preexisting Roman context, right? It doesn’t bring Romanness to the East. It’s already there. And so it’s not such a leap to create a center of Roman power in the East because of that.
And that has to do, you know, with race and colonialism and all kinds of things, right? But not in the Roman Empire. So we have a situation where the emperors are all from the provinces. The most powerful officials are all from the provinces. And so a century later, when Constantinople is created, this is, it’s created, right, like, in, in the Bosporus, so, like, where modern Istanbul is, in the Eastern Roman Empire. It’s created within the preexisting Roman context, right? It doesn’t bring Romanness to the East. It’s already there. And so it’s not such a leap to create a center of Roman power in the East because of that.
Lex Fridman
And you’ve helped put together a book on the history of intellectual thought in the East Roman Empire. But this is the interesting thing here, and I can ask that many times, but let me ask it here also, is the great man, the great woman view of history. Were there, like, Thomas Jefferson or those types of characters in the meetings as, as, as they’re executing on the edict or developing the edict? Is that important, or is it more about the system and the culture and just… … Is it, how important was it? ‘Cause this seems like a revolutionary idea, and when we think about the American Revolution and the founding documents, it seems like a few individuals-
And you’ve helped put together a book on the history of intellectual thought in the East Roman Empire. But this is the interesting thing here, and I can ask that many times, but let me ask it here also, is the great man, the great woman view of history. Were there, like, Thomas Jefferson or those types of characters in the meetings as, as, as they’re executing on the edict or developing the edict? Is that important, or is it more about the system and the culture and just… … Is it, how important was it? ‘Cause this seems like a revolutionary idea, and when we think about the American Revolution and the founding documents, it seems like a few individuals-
Lex Fridman
… were really critical about the wording of things, and then words matter because those words create the reality, and then it propagates through time.
… were really critical about the wording of things, and then words matter because those words create the reality, and then it propagates through time.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. For the edict, I suspect that yes, there were a few people who were behind it, and quite possibly jurists, that is, Roman legal scholars. And 212 is in an age of very important Roman legal scholars: Ulpian, for example, and others. But we just don’t have those… We have- … minutes of the meetings for the- … American Revolution. Not only do we not know who was in the room, we don’t actually even have the whole edict. We have a papyrus fragment, this is a piece of ancient paper- … that’s mostly torn and mutilated, and we have, like, a bit of a paragraph from it.
Yeah. For the edict, I suspect that yes, there were a few people who were behind it, and quite possibly jurists, that is, Roman legal scholars. And 212 is in an age of very important Roman legal scholars: Ulpian, for example, and others. But we just don’t have those… We have- … minutes of the meetings for the- … American Revolution. Not only do we not know who was in the room, we don’t actually even have the whole edict. We have a papyrus fragment, this is a piece of ancient paper- … that’s mostly torn and mutilated, and we have, like, a bit of a paragraph from it.
Anthony Kaldellis
In Greek, not even the Latin original. And it’s kind of torn, but it actually preserves the key clause. Right? And that’s, that’s all we have of the original. We have contemporary sources that mention it, we have legal documents, but nothing like a, like we can talk about the people involved in it. Or even how it was immediately implemented. Like, suddenly we know everyone in the provinces, like, there’s this explosion in the number of people called Aurelius, because that was his, his Roman family name. And so when you acquired citizenship from that edict, you became an Aurelius. Right? And there are lots of Aurelii suddenly all over the place. Like, we can see it immediately. But we can’t actually see the implementation.
In Greek, not even the Latin original. And it’s kind of torn, but it actually preserves the key clause. Right? And that’s, that’s all we have of the original. We have contemporary sources that mention it, we have legal documents, but nothing like a, like we can talk about the people involved in it. Or even how it was immediately implemented. Like, suddenly we know everyone in the provinces, like, there’s this explosion in the number of people called Aurelius, because that was his, his Roman family name. And so when you acquired citizenship from that edict, you became an Aurelius. Right? And there are lots of Aurelii suddenly all over the place. Like, we can see it immediately. But we can’t actually see the implementation.
Lex Fridman
But your instinct says that it was very, individuals were very important in the development of that idea and execution of it.
But your instinct says that it was very, individuals were very important in the development of that idea and execution of it.
Anthony Kaldellis
Probably, yeah. Yeah. Even though it’s part of a long-term process of expanding Roman citizenship, this was an explosion, not just an expansion.
Probably, yeah. Yeah. Even though it’s part of a long-term process of expanding Roman citizenship, this was an explosion, not just an expansion.
Lex Fridman
And then you said that one of the important aspects about this edict is that giving equal rights to provincials was one of the things that helped deal with the crisis of the third century, and was the thing that, I think you said, quote, “sapped discontent from the relevant populations,” which then minimized the probability of uprisings.
And then you said that one of the important aspects about this edict is that giving equal rights to provincials was one of the things that helped deal with the crisis of the third century, and was the thing that, I think you said, quote, “sapped discontent from the relevant populations,” which then minimized the probability of uprisings.
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, now that’s a very long-term process. Now, the third century is chaos, there’s a crisis, it’s a mess, right? So what follows the edict is quite a few decades of unrest.
Well, now that’s a very long-term process. Now, the third century is chaos, there’s a crisis, it’s a mess, right? So what follows the edict is quite a few decades of unrest.
Lex Fridman
Okay, let’s put it mildly. Let’s talk about the crisis of the third century, where 26 emperors were murdered in a period of 50 years.
Okay, let’s put it mildly. Let’s talk about the crisis of the third century, where 26 emperors were murdered in a period of 50 years.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. It’s tremendous instability.
Yes. It’s tremendous instability.
Lex Fridman
So there’s civil wars nonstop. Almost all of these emperors were generals, and almost all were murdered by their men. So civil war was the norm, hyperinflation, economic crash, plus there’s a plague- … from 249 to 262 AD, which is a pandemic, possibly smallpox or Ebola. It killed up to 5,000 people a day in Rome alone, devastating the tax base and army recruitment pool. And the empire fractured into three pieces, but then Emperor Aurelian miraculously reconquered them in a period of five years. So just a lot of chaos. It, it deserves the name, the Crisis of the Third Century.
So there’s civil wars nonstop. Almost all of these emperors were generals, and almost all were murdered by their men. So civil war was the norm, hyperinflation, economic crash, plus there’s a plague- … from 249 to 262 AD, which is a pandemic, possibly smallpox or Ebola. It killed up to 5,000 people a day in Rome alone, devastating the tax base and army recruitment pool. And the empire fractured into three pieces, but then Emperor Aurelian miraculously reconquered them in a period of five years. So just a lot of chaos. It, it deserves the name, the Crisis of the Third Century.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, it’s a perfect storm. Yeah, I mean, you have a crisis of imperial legitimacy. Basically, the army’s proclaiming emperors left and right. In an odd sense, ironically, this is in part because there are now a lot more stakeholders in the Roman tradition, right? There’s all of these provincial armies, and they’re appointing their generals as rival emperors. But you also have a serious uptick in foreign invasions.
Yeah, it’s a perfect storm. Yeah, I mean, you have a crisis of imperial legitimacy. Basically, the army’s proclaiming emperors left and right. In an odd sense, ironically, this is in part because there are now a lot more stakeholders in the Roman tradition, right? There’s all of these provincial armies, and they’re appointing their generals as rival emperors. But you also have a serious uptick in foreign invasions.
Anthony Kaldellis
In the north, you have the creation of the Sasanian Persian or Iranian Empire in the east, and this was very, very bellicose. So lots of foreign defeats. Armies are defeated by, you know, like, quote, “barbarian enemies.” You have eventually inflation, and you have plague. And so under the pressure, right, of all of those forces, it almost fell apart. Now, it didn’t actually. Inevitably, there are also historians who downplay the crisis. Of course, right, like, and legitimately so, right? We must push back against every of these characterizations.
In the north, you have the creation of the Sasanian Persian or Iranian Empire in the east, and this was very, very bellicose. So lots of foreign defeats. Armies are defeated by, you know, like, quote, “barbarian enemies.” You have eventually inflation, and you have plague. And so under the pressure, right, of all of those forces, it almost fell apart. Now, it didn’t actually. Inevitably, there are also historians who downplay the crisis. Of course, right, like, and legitimately so, right? We must push back against every of these characterizations.
Lex Fridman
26 emperors died, bro. What do you-
26 emperors died, bro. What do you-
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s just the emperors. That’s just the emperors. We’re… No, we should be l-
That’s just the emperors. That’s just the emperors. We’re… No, we should be l-
Lex Fridman
I’m sorry. In 50 years. Every other year, emperor dead.
I’m sorry. In 50 years. Every other year, emperor dead.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, that’s-
Yeah, that’s-
Lex Fridman
Civil war
Civil war
Anthony Kaldellis
… that’s political instability at the top, right? But what-
… that’s political instability at the top, right? But what-
Lex Fridman
Right, that’s not-
Right, that’s not-
Anthony Kaldellis
… what are the lives of most people? So if you go to Egypt, for example, which is kind of out of the… Right? What’s going on there? How are people living there? And we can see how people are living in Egypt because we have all these papyrus documents from Egypt.
… what are the lives of most people? So if you go to Egypt, for example, which is kind of out of the… Right? What’s going on there? How are people living there? And we can see how people are living in Egypt because we have all these papyrus documents from Egypt.
Lex Fridman
That’s true.
That’s true.
Anthony Kaldellis
And for the most part, they don’t seem to be experiencing a crisis.
And for the most part, they don’t seem to be experiencing a crisis.
Lex Fridman
I mean, this is something you talk about. Constantine, as we’ll get to him, is one of the most murderous leaders in all of human history, if you consider his own family. But if you’re living in the provinces, you know there’s… He’s not-
I mean, this is something you talk about. Constantine, as we’ll get to him, is one of the most murderous leaders in all of human history, if you consider his own family. But if you’re living in the provinces, you know there’s… He’s not-
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, yeah, yeah
Oh, yeah, yeah
Lex Fridman
… he’s not that murderous.
… he’s not that murderous.
Anthony Kaldellis
No, no, no, he’s perfectly fine. Yeah, yeah.
No, no, no, he’s perfectly fine. Yeah, yeah.
Crisis of the Third Century
Lex Fridman
So it’s very important to actually remember about what the actual experience of the average citizen of the empire is like. Fair. Okay, so but how… Maybe there’s more we could say about the crisis. And then, of course, the crisis is in part resolved by Diocletian as he does a hard reset on the structure of the Roman system of government. So maybe you could speak a little bit more to the crisis that’s important for us to understand, and how Diocletian solves the crisis in 284 AD.
So it’s very important to actually remember about what the actual experience of the average citizen of the empire is like. Fair. Okay, so but how… Maybe there’s more we could say about the crisis. And then, of course, the crisis is in part resolved by Diocletian as he does a hard reset on the structure of the Roman system of government. So maybe you could speak a little bit more to the crisis that’s important for us to understand, and how Diocletian solves the crisis in 284 AD.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right. So again, these are processes rather than specific events. So for example, you mentioned that the empire kind of breaks into pieces.
Right. So again, these are processes rather than specific events. So for example, you mentioned that the empire kind of breaks into pieces.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Anthony Kaldellis
And we have what’s called sometime the Empire of the Gauls. Gaul are modern France and sort of Britain, for a while are, for a decade and a half or so, are kind of like this little separatist- … empire. So what’s interesting about that is that this was not an attempt to break away from the empire. In other words, it’s not some discontent provincials who are just tired of Roman rule and wanna break away and do their own thing. No. This is actually just a, it’s an attempt by provincial generals to take the throne, and does it to rule the entire empire. It doesn’t work. They get only as far as the provinces that they take. And the only way that they know to set up a state is to make it a Roman state.
And we have what’s called sometime the Empire of the Gauls. Gaul are modern France and sort of Britain, for a while are, for a decade and a half or so, are kind of like this little separatist- … empire. So what’s interesting about that is that this was not an attempt to break away from the empire. In other words, it’s not some discontent provincials who are just tired of Roman rule and wanna break away and do their own thing. No. This is actually just a, it’s an attempt by provincial generals to take the throne, and does it to rule the entire empire. It doesn’t work. They get only as far as the provinces that they take. And the only way that they know to set up a state is to make it a Roman state.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? Like, that’s the total of their political imaginary is like, “Well, we’re just gonna do a Roman thing here.” And maybe we’ll get, you know, we’ll reunite the empire ourselves, or as happened, Aurelian, that is someone from the other side, will reunite the empire. But it’s always a Roman model. Like, there’s, it’s almost like there’s no alternatives by this point. So that’s interesting. What Diocletian does essentially is the, the way I characterize it sometimes is that he turns the problem into its own solution. In other words, the problem is too many emperors or wanna-be emperors. Because there’s just more going on. Like, one emperor can’t deal with all these problems along the frontiers, with all the political problems.
Right? Like, that’s the total of their political imaginary is like, “Well, we’re just gonna do a Roman thing here.” And maybe we’ll get, you know, we’ll reunite the empire ourselves, or as happened, Aurelian, that is someone from the other side, will reunite the empire. But it’s always a Roman model. Like, there’s, it’s almost like there’s no alternatives by this point. So that’s interesting. What Diocletian does essentially is the, the way I characterize it sometimes is that he turns the problem into its own solution. In other words, the problem is too many emperors or wanna-be emperors. Because there’s just more going on. Like, one emperor can’t deal with all these problems along the frontiers, with all the political problems.
Anthony Kaldellis
So what he does is he deputizes some of his colleagues, people he was on very good terms with from the army. These are all Illyrians. They’re from… By the way, for a few centuries, the emperors are all from this region of the former Yugoslavia that’s the size of Scotland. Like, that’s where they all come from.
So what he does is he deputizes some of his colleagues, people he was on very good terms with from the army. These are all Illyrians. They’re from… By the way, for a few centuries, the emperors are all from this region of the former Yugoslavia that’s the size of Scotland. Like, that’s where they all come from.
Lex Fridman
Well, what explains that?
Well, what explains that?
Anthony Kaldellis
The army. These are military men. Sometimes hard-drinking military men. Very good at their job like Aurelian, you mentioned, right? So there’s a series of Illyrian emperors who restore stability. And the reason why there’s so many Illyrian emperors is ’cause they worked their way up through the ranks of the army. And, you know, the regions of Yugoslavia at that time are sufficiently, you know, economically underdeveloped that there’s a strong incentive for young men to go join the army ’cause, you know, it’s a living.
The army. These are military men. Sometimes hard-drinking military men. Very good at their job like Aurelian, you mentioned, right? So there’s a series of Illyrian emperors who restore stability. And the reason why there’s so many Illyrian emperors is ’cause they worked their way up through the ranks of the army. And, you know, the regions of Yugoslavia at that time are sufficiently, you know, economically underdeveloped that there’s a strong incentive for young men to go join the army ’cause, you know, it’s a living.
Anthony Kaldellis
And so Illyrians become, like, kind of the backbone of the Roman army, and they’re described as these, you know, tough Roman conservative types. I mean, these are, you know, these are, these are tough military guys. I say that to draw a contrast between, say, Hadrian, whom I mentioned earlier- … you know, who was a much more sophisticated, artsy, poetic, cosmopolitan emperor. Also a hard-ass. You did not wanna mess with Hadrian. But these guys from the third century are military men through and through. Like, their whole careers are, are in the army. And they have, like, the military stubble. They’ve got these thick necks. They look angry. They’ve got their hands on their swords. Like, they’re not projecting an image of sort of- … calm and sophisticated, you know, bum-bum, you know.
And so Illyrians become, like, kind of the backbone of the Roman army, and they’re described as these, you know, tough Roman conservative types. I mean, these are, you know, these are, these are tough military guys. I say that to draw a contrast between, say, Hadrian, whom I mentioned earlier- … you know, who was a much more sophisticated, artsy, poetic, cosmopolitan emperor. Also a hard-ass. You did not wanna mess with Hadrian. But these guys from the third century are military men through and through. Like, their whole careers are, are in the army. And they have, like, the military stubble. They’ve got these thick necks. They look angry. They’ve got their hands on their swords. Like, they’re not projecting an image of sort of- … calm and sophisticated, you know, bum-bum, you know.
Lex Fridman
So, military men. … Military men from Aurelian.
So, military men. … Military men from Aurelian.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yep. So Diocletian gets a gang of them together. They, eventually there are four. We call this the Tetrarchy. And he basically allocates them to various… This wasn’t any kind of hard division of the empire. Basically, it was a collaborative project. They each went wherever they were needed.
Yep. So Diocletian gets a gang of them together. They, eventually there are four. We call this the Tetrarchy. And he basically allocates them to various… This wasn’t any kind of hard division of the empire. Basically, it was a collaborative project. They each went wherever they were needed.
Lex Fridman
Was it, is it fair to say that there was four administrative zones? He allocated each one to a zone?
Was it, is it fair to say that there was four administrative zones? He allocated each one to a zone?
Anthony Kaldellis
Broadly. I’d say more military zones. So the administration tends to operate, it kind of humming along in the background wherever these emperors happen to be, right? This is a, we’re talking about a period of big government now. So Diocletian creates a larger government, possibly a larger army, and in order to pay for that, you need more systematic and effective taxation- … which means you need more census, you need more bureaucracy, you need more collect… you know? So it is an era of bigger government.
Broadly. I’d say more military zones. So the administration tends to operate, it kind of humming along in the background wherever these emperors happen to be, right? This is a, we’re talking about a period of big government now. So Diocletian creates a larger government, possibly a larger army, and in order to pay for that, you need more systematic and effective taxation- … which means you need more census, you need more bureaucracy, you need more collect… you know? So it is an era of bigger government.
Lex Fridman
So just to linger on that point- … is it fair to say that Diocletian created the deep state? Quote, “deep state.” So the tax collectors, the, the logistics, the thing that you’ve kinda hinted at, which is the separation of the civil and the military layer of society.
So just to linger on that point- … is it fair to say that Diocletian created the deep state? Quote, “deep state.” So the tax collectors, the, the logistics, the thing that you’ve kinda hinted at, which is the separation of the civil and the military layer of society.
Anthony Kaldellis
So the concept of a deep state, I’ve had discussions about that with experts who work on the idea of the deep state, and I’m not sure that I would characterize the Roman Empire that way, in part because while you do have big government, you do have bureaucracy, you have, you have bureaucrats who are buried in various echelons, and you know, nobody knows exactly what they’re doing and things like that, I have not come across the idea of some sort of sinister elements, you know, who are working within the administrative apparatus to undermine the emperor. Like, from a distance occasionally, you might get glimpses of this kind of thing. Diocletian, for example, once complained that, “Nobody ever tells me anything.” In other words, like, he’s so removed-
So the concept of a deep state, I’ve had discussions about that with experts who work on the idea of the deep state, and I’m not sure that I would characterize the Roman Empire that way, in part because while you do have big government, you do have bureaucracy, you have, you have bureaucrats who are buried in various echelons, and you know, nobody knows exactly what they’re doing and things like that, I have not come across the idea of some sort of sinister elements, you know, who are working within the administrative apparatus to undermine the emperor. Like, from a distance occasionally, you might get glimpses of this kind of thing. Diocletian, for example, once complained that, “Nobody ever tells me anything.” In other words, like, he’s so removed-
Anthony Kaldellis
… in part from the realities of what’s going on on the ground that he felt sometimes he’d lost touch. But I don’t find this kind of idea of undermining imperial power from within the bureaucracy.
… in part from the realities of what’s going on on the ground that he felt sometimes he’d lost touch. But I don’t find this kind of idea of undermining imperial power from within the bureaucracy.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I think the, one of the ways to explain that is because, so, you know, in the modern day, democracy in quotes, there’s a kinda temporary nature to the leader at the top. So it’s incentivized the deep state to form. That, so the deep state thinks of themselves as a thing that propagates long-term periods of time, and then the leader is a very ephemeral short, short-term thing. With a, with an emperor, technically- … you can go for a long time, so it’s best to be integrated deeply. With, the bureaucracy should be integrated with the leader. It makes sense.
Yeah, I think the, one of the ways to explain that is because, so, you know, in the modern day, democracy in quotes, there’s a kinda temporary nature to the leader at the top. So it’s incentivized the deep state to form. That, so the deep state thinks of themselves as a thing that propagates long-term periods of time, and then the leader is a very ephemeral short, short-term thing. With a, with an emperor, technically- … you can go for a long time, so it’s best to be integrated deeply. With, the bureaucracy should be integrated with the leader. It makes sense.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. But al-
Yeah. But al-
Lex Fridman
Fair enough.
Fair enough.
Anthony Kaldellis
… also in modern social thought or fear is that the deep state might be undermining, say-
… also in modern social thought or fear is that the deep state might be undermining, say-
Lex Fridman
Undermining, yeah.
Undermining, yeah.
Anthony Kaldellis
… the democracy itself rather than, right, rather than… It can cut both ways.
… the democracy itself rather than, right, rather than… It can cut both ways.
Lex Fridman
But there is a bureaucracy. There is a big government.
But there is a bureaucracy. There is a big government.
Anthony Kaldellis
Absolutely. Yeah.
Absolutely. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
There’s a big machinery.
There’s a big machinery.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, compared to before.
Yeah, compared to before.
Lex Fridman
Before.
Before.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. So Diocletian creates these larger bureaucratic structures, and these are the ones that define the society that I study. So as a specialist, I focus on the period after him mostly. But he implemented those to solve a lot of these problems. He was mostly successful. So in terms of generating revenue from a much more troubled and kind of precarious situation in sustaining large armies and putting down these rebellions and usurpations. And he was generally successful at doing that. So he created the model that they kept for the next, well, three centuries or more.
Yes. So Diocletian creates these larger bureaucratic structures, and these are the ones that define the society that I study. So as a specialist, I focus on the period after him mostly. But he implemented those to solve a lot of these problems. He was mostly successful. So in terms of generating revenue from a much more troubled and kind of precarious situation in sustaining large armies and putting down these rebellions and usurpations. And he was generally successful at doing that. So he created the model that they kept for the next, well, three centuries or more.
Lex Fridman
But a lot of the elements of that model lasted even beyond that, right?
But a lot of the elements of that model lasted even beyond that, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, like universal taxation. I’ll give you an example. Up until then, Italy was exempt from taxes. Italy was the land of the conquerors. The conquerors don’t pay taxes to themselves. The conquerors live off the taxes that others pay, right? So Italy was this big tax haven, right? Diocletian, Galerius, you know, his guys, these guys are from Illyria. They’re from the Balkans.
Yeah, like universal taxation. I’ll give you an example. Up until then, Italy was exempt from taxes. Italy was the land of the conquerors. The conquerors don’t pay taxes to themselves. The conquerors live off the taxes that others pay, right? So Italy was this big tax haven, right? Diocletian, Galerius, you know, his guys, these guys are from Illyria. They’re from the Balkans.
Anthony Kaldellis
Like why is Italy tax-free exactly, you know? That doesn’t make any sense. It’s a very, very wealthy, prosperous part of the world, and so, no, they tax Italy. So now, like, not only do all Romans have the same citizenship and the same law, they all have the same tax system, and the Diocletianic tax code, as it were, it’s not a code, it sounds like a flat tax, which for us sounds regressive. But by those standards, by the standards of that time, it’s actually kind of progressive in a way.
Like why is Italy tax-free exactly, you know? That doesn’t make any sense. It’s a very, very wealthy, prosperous part of the world, and so, no, they tax Italy. So now, like, not only do all Romans have the same citizenship and the same law, they all have the same tax system, and the Diocletianic tax code, as it were, it’s not a code, it sounds like a flat tax, which for us sounds regressive. But by those standards, by the standards of that time, it’s actually kind of progressive in a way.
Lex Fridman
Right.
Right.
Anthony Kaldellis
It means that, like, even— … elites paid, like, the same, right? Yeah.
It means that, like, even— … elites paid, like, the same, right? Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So how much of all of this, everything we’ll talk about in the coming centuries, is all about taxation?
So how much of all of this, everything we’ll talk about in the coming centuries, is all about taxation?
Anthony Kaldellis
I think it’s huge. Taxation is the heart of it.
I think it’s huge. Taxation is the heart of it.
Lex Fridman
So I mean, the functioning, the success, the flourishing of a society, the way the government works, the way the people are represented, all of it has to do, all the civil wars and everything, it feels like taxation is at the core.
So I mean, the functioning, the success, the flourishing of a society, the way the government works, the way the people are represented, all of it has to do, all the civil wars and everything, it feels like taxation is at the core.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. Yeah. If you asked me to put my finger on one factor, it would be that.
Yes. Yeah. If you asked me to put my finger on one factor, it would be that.
Lex Fridman
So the taxation system, that feels like the early framework for the East Roman Empire.
So the taxation system, that feels like the early framework for the East Roman Empire.
Anthony Kaldellis
It did create a more sort of homogeneous framework, for sure. By the end of the third century, it’s pretty much in place. What Diocletian does is a universal census, and this is continued by his successors. So every taxable asset in the empire is censused. And so you can now start to have a budget.
It did create a more sort of homogeneous framework, for sure. By the end of the third century, it’s pretty much in place. What Diocletian does is a universal census, and this is continued by his successors. So every taxable asset in the empire is censused. And so you can now start to have a budget.
Lex Fridman
Now, there is some element, and then you push back against that, some element of Diocletian where he legally limited social and class mobility in part for the taxation system, and made it, in many cases, illegal to move and illegal to quit your job. For example, as I read to guarantee the food supply and land tax, farmers were legally forbidden from moving away from the land they worked, so the state always knew who to tax. And then for soldiers, sons of veterans were legally obligated to serve in the army to maintain troop numbers. You argue that these were tax enforcement mechanisms, not a rigid caste system, and so in practice, the empire remained a society of high mobility.
Now, there is some element, and then you push back against that, some element of Diocletian where he legally limited social and class mobility in part for the taxation system, and made it, in many cases, illegal to move and illegal to quit your job. For example, as I read to guarantee the food supply and land tax, farmers were legally forbidden from moving away from the land they worked, so the state always knew who to tax. And then for soldiers, sons of veterans were legally obligated to serve in the army to maintain troop numbers. You argue that these were tax enforcement mechanisms, not a rigid caste system, and so in practice, the empire remained a society of high mobility.
Anthony Kaldellis
This is a complicated matter. So let’s talk, for example, about soldiers. It’s probably the case that most soldiers’ sons were expected to succeed them. Like most professions where you have an apprenticeship, the son will usually succeed, right? There are a number of other professions that were kind of guild-like in nature, like, for example, shipping.
This is a complicated matter. So let’s talk, for example, about soldiers. It’s probably the case that most soldiers’ sons were expected to succeed them. Like most professions where you have an apprenticeship, the son will usually succeed, right? There are a number of other professions that were kind of guild-like in nature, like, for example, shipping.
Anthony Kaldellis
Where there were considerable assets involved in order to secure contracts for insurance purposes for the ships and so forth, and it made sense for those assets to be, you know, passed from father to son. In other words, and with them comes the obligation to continue in that line of work. Some of these things are inherently sort of hereditary, and I don’t think most people would have objected to it. The farmers is probably the only case where it might have actually involved some coercion. There was a category of farmers, and we don’t know how many of them, who were, for fiscal purposes, bound to the land. This doesn’t mean they couldn’t leave the land, like physically. No one’s preventing them from leaving.
Where there were considerable assets involved in order to secure contracts for insurance purposes for the ships and so forth, and it made sense for those assets to be, you know, passed from father to son. In other words, and with them comes the obligation to continue in that line of work. Some of these things are inherently sort of hereditary, and I don’t think most people would have objected to it. The farmers is probably the only case where it might have actually involved some coercion. There was a category of farmers, and we don’t know how many of them, who were, for fiscal purposes, bound to the land. This doesn’t mean they couldn’t leave the land, like physically. No one’s preventing them from leaving.
Anthony Kaldellis
But they were fiscally responsible for providing the taxes or rents or whatever because the, the state wanted to have a secure revenue stream from, say, those lands. And if… Anyway, it’s, it’s one of these complicated situations. This did create some limitations on, on those people. And it’s a topic of current research, these bound farmers, as it were, who are tied to the land. It’s more of a… You know, someone put it that, you know, most of the time it’s people who own the land, and in this arrangement, it’s the land that owns the, that owns the people.
But they were fiscally responsible for providing the taxes or rents or whatever because the, the state wanted to have a secure revenue stream from, say, those lands. And if… Anyway, it’s, it’s one of these complicated situations. This did create some limitations on, on those people. And it’s a topic of current research, these bound farmers, as it were, who are tied to the land. It’s more of a… You know, someone put it that, you know, most of the time it’s people who own the land, and in this arrangement, it’s the land that owns the, that owns the people.
Lex Fridman
But you’re saying the bigger picture thing is that there was mobility.
But you’re saying the bigger picture thing is that there was mobility.
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, there’s considerable mobility.
Oh, there’s considerable mobility.
Lex Fridman
So class mobility- … and physical mobility- … meaning people moved… And we’ll see this from the West into the East and Constantinople and all this kind of stuff.
So class mobility- … and physical mobility- … meaning people moved… And we’ll see this from the West into the East and Constantinople and all this kind of stuff.
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, yeah. There’s tons of mobility. No, no, this is not a society where people are bound really to… We, like, we don’t find anybody who’s, who’s like, “Ah, I really don’t wanna be a soldier. But my father was a soldier, and I’m obligated to be one.” Like- … like, we just don’t hear those kinds of complaints- … of people who don’t wanna be a so- Why wouldn’t you wanna be a soldier in the Roman Empire? I mean, it’s got tremendous perks.
Oh, yeah. There’s tons of mobility. No, no, this is not a society where people are bound really to… We, like, we don’t find anybody who’s, who’s like, “Ah, I really don’t wanna be a soldier. But my father was a soldier, and I’m obligated to be one.” Like- … like, we just don’t hear those kinds of complaints- … of people who don’t wanna be a so- Why wouldn’t you wanna be a soldier in the Roman Empire? I mean, it’s got tremendous perks.
Lex Fridman
So can we just linger on the why is it that Diocletian was able to stabilize the empire? It’s like, you know, the crisis of the third century really threatened to tear apart everything. So why did some of these things that we talked about stabilize?
So can we just linger on the why is it that Diocletian was able to stabilize the empire? It’s like, you know, the crisis of the third century really threatened to tear apart everything. So why did some of these things that we talked about stabilize?
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, Aurelian had already united the empire territorially.
Well, Aurelian had already united the empire territorially.
Anthony Kaldellis
So this is right before Diocletian. And what Diocletian did was put in place a system that reduced the number of rebellions. Simply by having four big guys with four armies, they managed to put out all of those fires, or most of them. And once you have stability, and he also beat the Persians, I mean, Galerius did, so starting to beat back foreign invasions, that creates a framework for economic stability. People need to, you know, if they’re going to invest in, like, land reclamation or expand production, they need to know that, you know, foreigners aren’t gonna come rampaging through, marauding through, you know, stealing their cattle and, you know, enslaving them and taking them off to work on agricultural farms in Mesopotamia. Like, they need to know this.
So this is right before Diocletian. And what Diocletian did was put in place a system that reduced the number of rebellions. Simply by having four big guys with four armies, they managed to put out all of those fires, or most of them. And once you have stability, and he also beat the Persians, I mean, Galerius did, so starting to beat back foreign invasions, that creates a framework for economic stability. People need to, you know, if they’re going to invest in, like, land reclamation or expand production, they need to know that, you know, foreigners aren’t gonna come rampaging through, marauding through, you know, stealing their cattle and, you know, enslaving them and taking them off to work on agricultural farms in Mesopotamia. Like, they need to know this.
Anthony Kaldellis
And if you provide that context of stability, the economic growth, the demographic growth will return. And Diocletian created that kind of, that context.
And if you provide that context of stability, the economic growth, the demographic growth will return. And Diocletian created that kind of, that context.
Lex Fridman
So that takes us to Constantine, but first a quick bathroom break, if I can.
So that takes us to Constantine, but first a quick bathroom break, if I can.
Anthony Kaldellis
Sure.
Sure.
Constantine and the new Roman Empire
Lex Fridman
Quick ten-second thank you to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to our conversation about the Eastern Roman Empire. All right, we’re back, and let’s talk about Constantine and Constantinople. Let’s go to the rise of the East Roman Empire. Who was Constantine? Tell me about his rise to power and the founding of Constantinople in 330 AD.
Quick ten-second thank you to our sponsors. Check them out in the description. It really is the best way to support this podcast. Go to lexfridman.com/sponsors. And now, dear friends, back to our conversation about the Eastern Roman Empire. All right, we’re back, and let’s talk about Constantine and Constantinople. Let’s go to the rise of the East Roman Empire. Who was Constantine? Tell me about his rise to power and the founding of Constantinople in 330 AD.
Anthony Kaldellis
Sure. So Constantine was the son of one of Diocletian’s colleagues, so he comes from within the system. And the system was actually designed to be non-hereditary. In other words, the senior emperors would retire, the junior ones would move up to the senior position, and then they would recruit two new ones. And they tried to skip the dynastic element. So, so it would be kind of, let’s just say, kinda meritocratic, not whose son, you know, you were. Constantine was a son. He was passed over, but the armies liked him. He was actually quite competent.
Sure. So Constantine was the son of one of Diocletian’s colleagues, so he comes from within the system. And the system was actually designed to be non-hereditary. In other words, the senior emperors would retire, the junior ones would move up to the senior position, and then they would recruit two new ones. And they tried to skip the dynastic element. So, so it would be kind of, let’s just say, kinda meritocratic, not whose son, you know, you were. Constantine was a son. He was passed over, but the armies liked him. He was actually quite competent.
Anthony Kaldellis
And so there’s a series of civil wars among all of these successors of Diocletian, and Constantine emerges as the winner. There are periods when there are quite a few of them. There are, like, six at a time, but they gradually dwindle down to one. So yeah, it’s as long as you have the quarterfinals, semifinals, and then the, the final war, and Constantine emerges in 324 as the sole ruler of the entire Roman Empire. So that’s who he is. He’s, he’s definitely an insider, very, very competent general at civil war. And he gradually moves eastward. So as he’s conquering his rivals, who are often at times his fathers-in-law or his brothers-in-law, because these people all intermarry, and they have alliances, and they fall out.
And so there’s a series of civil wars among all of these successors of Diocletian, and Constantine emerges as the winner. There are periods when there are quite a few of them. There are, like, six at a time, but they gradually dwindle down to one. So yeah, it’s as long as you have the quarterfinals, semifinals, and then the, the final war, and Constantine emerges in 324 as the sole ruler of the entire Roman Empire. So that’s who he is. He’s, he’s definitely an insider, very, very competent general at civil war. And he gradually moves eastward. So as he’s conquering his rivals, who are often at times his fathers-in-law or his brothers-in-law, because these people all intermarry, and they have alliances, and they fall out.
Anthony Kaldellis
It’s one of those kinds of situations. He moves eastward, and by the time he defeats his last rival, an emperor called Licinius, in 324 he’s in the East. And Licinius had his headquarters, or one of his headquarters, at this town called Byzantium. Byzantium is a city right where Constantinople was founded.
It’s one of those kinds of situations. He moves eastward, and by the time he defeats his last rival, an emperor called Licinius, in 324 he’s in the East. And Licinius had his headquarters, or one of his headquarters, at this town called Byzantium. Byzantium is a city right where Constantinople was founded.
Anthony Kaldellis
And it is at exactly the point where Europe meets Asia, so on the Bosporus. And it’s a very strategic location. It always had been, right? So whoever controls the straits of the Bosporus, yeah, we don’t need to explain how important that is. And Constantine decides to create a city named after himself, Constantinople, on that spot, Byzantium. So Byzantium essentially ceases to exist as a city and is replaced by Constantinople, AKA New Rome. So it’s pretty clear that right from the beginning, Constantine intended this to be a kind of branch office of Rome in the East, a kind of copy and paste of Rome in the East, and it’s a plan that his successors continued, right?
And it is at exactly the point where Europe meets Asia, so on the Bosporus. And it’s a very strategic location. It always had been, right? So whoever controls the straits of the Bosporus, yeah, we don’t need to explain how important that is. And Constantine decides to create a city named after himself, Constantinople, on that spot, Byzantium. So Byzantium essentially ceases to exist as a city and is replaced by Constantinople, AKA New Rome. So it’s pretty clear that right from the beginning, Constantine intended this to be a kind of branch office of Rome in the East, a kind of copy and paste of Rome in the East, and it’s a plan that his successors continued, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
Now, there are a number of other cities in this, let’s say, in the generation or two before this, that were also treated as sort of quasi-Romes. Basically, there was this historian in the third century who said, “Well, wherever the emperor is, that’s Rome,” right? ‘Cause emperors are now itinerant. They’re no longer staying at Rome. They’re mostly on the frontier, and Constantine is one of these frontier emperors. They will sometimes visit Rome, maybe once or twice, maybe once a decade, you know, something like this. So Rome becomes something that can be sort of copied and pasted in other parts of the empire, and a bunch of other cities get called, you know, a New Rome, an Other Rome, an Alternative Rome, My Rome. And Constantinople is the last and most successful of those.
Now, there are a number of other cities in this, let’s say, in the generation or two before this, that were also treated as sort of quasi-Romes. Basically, there was this historian in the third century who said, “Well, wherever the emperor is, that’s Rome,” right? ‘Cause emperors are now itinerant. They’re no longer staying at Rome. They’re mostly on the frontier, and Constantine is one of these frontier emperors. They will sometimes visit Rome, maybe once or twice, maybe once a decade, you know, something like this. So Rome becomes something that can be sort of copied and pasted in other parts of the empire, and a bunch of other cities get called, you know, a New Rome, an Other Rome, an Alternative Rome, My Rome. And Constantinople is the last and most successful of those.
Lex Fridman
So maybe can you speak geographically the importance of Constantinople? It’s an interesting place ’cause it- … when you’re talking about a land so large as the West and the East, with enemies, with threats from all kinds of different directions, the location where the emperor sits is important.
So maybe can you speak geographically the importance of Constantinople? It’s an interesting place ’cause it- … when you’re talking about a land so large as the West and the East, with enemies, with threats from all kinds of different directions, the location where the emperor sits is important.
Anthony Kaldellis
Very. So look at Rome, right? So it’s right in the middle of Italy, right in the middle of the Mediterranean. Very safe location in a way, but it’s very far from the frontiers. And this is a period when emperors need to be with the armies, right? They’re not senatorial emperors who are sitting in Rome having meetings with senators. They are military emperors who are marching along the frontiers mostly with generals rather than civilian administration. So they’re doing their job. Like, this is the hard work. They’re slogging through the mud of winter campaigns, right?
Very. So look at Rome, right? So it’s right in the middle of Italy, right in the middle of the Mediterranean. Very safe location in a way, but it’s very far from the frontiers. And this is a period when emperors need to be with the armies, right? They’re not senatorial emperors who are sitting in Rome having meetings with senators. They are military emperors who are marching along the frontiers mostly with generals rather than civilian administration. So they’re doing their job. Like, this is the hard work. They’re slogging through the mud of winter campaigns, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
They’re not just sitting in a palace enjoying themselves when they could. But Rome just becomes inconvenient because of that. And if you look at Constantinople, it is kind of halfway between the Danube frontier and the Euphrates frontier. So if you want to prioritize the East or treat it as an equal part of the Roman Empire, as these emperors all did. In fact, almost all emperors who had a choice about whether they would stay in the East or stay in the West chose the East. There’s only one who chooses the West, and that’s Valentinian later in the fourth century. All the others understand that the East is where it’s at. And Constantinople is right between the Danube and the Euphrates. These are two major frontiers. And so it allows emperors to move between the two.
They’re not just sitting in a palace enjoying themselves when they could. But Rome just becomes inconvenient because of that. And if you look at Constantinople, it is kind of halfway between the Danube frontier and the Euphrates frontier. So if you want to prioritize the East or treat it as an equal part of the Roman Empire, as these emperors all did. In fact, almost all emperors who had a choice about whether they would stay in the East or stay in the West chose the East. There’s only one who chooses the West, and that’s Valentinian later in the fourth century. All the others understand that the East is where it’s at. And Constantinople is right between the Danube and the Euphrates. These are two major frontiers. And so it allows emperors to move between the two.
Anthony Kaldellis
And also look at its location: north, south, east, west, right? So north, south, it is the node between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, right? And east, west, it’s precisely where Europe meets Asia, right? And because there’s a break there, so there’s a Bosporus, the Sea of Marmara, the Hellespont, the Roman Empire during the civil wars, it would tend to break there.
And also look at its location: north, south, east, west, right? So north, south, it is the node between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, right? And east, west, it’s precisely where Europe meets Asia, right? And because there’s a break there, so there’s a Bosporus, the Sea of Marmara, the Hellespont, the Roman Empire during the civil wars, it would tend to break there.
Anthony Kaldellis
And you would have one emperor on one side in Asia, and you would have another emperor on the other side. And this just kept happening. And Constantinople ultimately functions as a kind of clamp that unifies this whole area, so basically the Balkans and Asia Minor and Syria as a kind of unit, right? And, you know, what is a new Rome? A new Rome is, among other things, a new senate, right? And Constantine and his successors recruit this new senate for the new Rome. So we’re talking about maybe two and a half thousand, 3,000 men, you know, at, at, at its peak, and these are all recruited from all of these areas. You know, some come from Rome, but others come from the Aegean region, from Asia Minor, Eastern Mediterranean.
And you would have one emperor on one side in Asia, and you would have another emperor on the other side. And this just kept happening. And Constantinople ultimately functions as a kind of clamp that unifies this whole area, so basically the Balkans and Asia Minor and Syria as a kind of unit, right? And, you know, what is a new Rome? A new Rome is, among other things, a new senate, right? And Constantine and his successors recruit this new senate for the new Rome. So we’re talking about maybe two and a half thousand, 3,000 men, you know, at, at, at its peak, and these are all recruited from all of these areas. You know, some come from Rome, but others come from the Aegean region, from Asia Minor, Eastern Mediterranean.
Anthony Kaldellis
So these are the wealthiest people, usually most well-connected elites from the whole Eastern Mediterranean, and they come together and form a new purpose, common purpose in Constantinople. And the empire never breaks there again. Right? So it, it holds together this part of the world. The breaking point now, interestingly, moves to the Adriatic, right? So when, in 395, we talked about East and West kind of splitting.
So these are the wealthiest people, usually most well-connected elites from the whole Eastern Mediterranean, and they come together and form a new purpose, common purpose in Constantinople. And the empire never breaks there again. Right? So it, it holds together this part of the world. The breaking point now, interestingly, moves to the Adriatic, right? So when, in 395, we talked about East and West kind of splitting.
Anthony Kaldellis
It breaks at the Adriatic ’cause Constantinople is now holding that whole Eastern world together. ‘Cause all of these elites, they now, they’re invested in it. They’re literally investing in it. They have to invest in it in order to be senators in Constantinople. So that’s kind of one of the functions that it, that it performs, a strategic function. There’s a political function. There’s also a cultural one, but you know, we can talk about that, too. But that’s what you see there on that map, the northwest, east, south.
It breaks at the Adriatic ’cause Constantinople is now holding that whole Eastern world together. ‘Cause all of these elites, they now, they’re invested in it. They’re literally investing in it. They have to invest in it in order to be senators in Constantinople. So that’s kind of one of the functions that it, that it performs, a strategic function. There’s a political function. There’s also a cultural one, but you know, we can talk about that, too. But that’s what you see there on that map, the northwest, east, south.
Lex Fridman
So just to linger on it, so you, you do a podcast, Byzantium and Friends, but you’re also a guest on podcasts, and I should mention you being a guest multiple times on the excellent The History of Byzantium podcast hosted by Robin Pierson. I highly recommend people listen to it, to all of your appearances. You have a lot of really fascinating ones. But the reason I bring all that up is, one of the episodes, you do the fun thing of selecting the top 10 emperors of Byzantium, and spoiler alert, everybody should go listen to the full list ’cause you justify all the different options. But Constantine ends up in the number one spot. And so can you just add a little bit more depth why he would be in your number one spot- … now that we’re talking about him?
So just to linger on it, so you, you do a podcast, Byzantium and Friends, but you’re also a guest on podcasts, and I should mention you being a guest multiple times on the excellent The History of Byzantium podcast hosted by Robin Pierson. I highly recommend people listen to it, to all of your appearances. You have a lot of really fascinating ones. But the reason I bring all that up is, one of the episodes, you do the fun thing of selecting the top 10 emperors of Byzantium, and spoiler alert, everybody should go listen to the full list ’cause you justify all the different options. But Constantine ends up in the number one spot. And so can you just add a little bit more depth why he would be in your number one spot- … now that we’re talking about him?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. It’s not because I sort of like him as a person, right? I mean- … as you said, he was pretty murderous. Right? All those wars, so clearly ambitious, murderous, ruthless, basically.
Yes. It’s not because I sort of like him as a person, right? I mean- … as you said, he was pretty murderous. Right? All those wars, so clearly ambitious, murderous, ruthless, basically.
Lex Fridman
Can you actually speak to the murderous aspect? He seemed to have murdered a lot of people in his family.
Can you actually speak to the murderous aspect? He seemed to have murdered a lot of people in his family.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, that’s because what we call his family were also alliances of convenience that he made on the way to the top. And when those alliances or, you know, those, you know, those wives or those fathers-in-law were no longer convenient or, or turned against him, he had no hesitation in removing them. But he’s also, you know, he gets a, a little extra bonus because he also murdered his own son, Crispus, who was- … apparently a very competent and popular kind of general, and we don’t know why. He executes Crispus soon after defeating Licinius, and then follows it up with the murder of his wife-
Yes, that’s because what we call his family were also alliances of convenience that he made on the way to the top. And when those alliances or, you know, those, you know, those wives or those fathers-in-law were no longer convenient or, or turned against him, he had no hesitation in removing them. But he’s also, you know, he gets a, a little extra bonus because he also murdered his own son, Crispus, who was- … apparently a very competent and popular kind of general, and we don’t know why. He executes Crispus soon after defeating Licinius, and then follows it up with the murder of his wife-
Anthony Kaldellis
… not Crispus’ mother, and we don’t know why. The funny thing is that when emperors do this sort of thing, if there’s any kind of remotely, like, a good reason, they’ll blast it through all of the media, right? Like, “Crispus was rebelling against me,” or whatever. There’s nothing. He doesn’t even try to justify it, which means it must have been something unjustifiable. Like, I don’t know. I can’t process it.
… not Crispus’ mother, and we don’t know why. The funny thing is that when emperors do this sort of thing, if there’s any kind of remotely, like, a good reason, they’ll blast it through all of the media, right? Like, “Crispus was rebelling against me,” or whatever. There’s nothing. He doesn’t even try to justify it, which means it must have been something unjustifiable. Like, I don’t know. I can’t process it.
Lex Fridman
And also, I read that the historians of the time would just ignore that that happened.
And also, I read that the historians of the time would just ignore that that happened.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. Well, sort of. So when Crispus is alive, it’s all, like, praising Crispus as, “Oh, Constantine, you great emperor, and your wonderful son who will…” whatever. And then Crispus is executed, and he just disappears from the, like- … they never talk about him.
Yes. Well, sort of. So when Crispus is alive, it’s all, like, praising Crispus as, “Oh, Constantine, you great emperor, and your wonderful son who will…” whatever. And then Crispus is executed, and he just disappears from the, like- … they never talk about him.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. Actually, as another side to a side, I think you mentioned whether it’s on your podcast or elsewhere, that if you had to have a beer with any of the emperors, you probably wouldn’t. So it’s not like some of the most impactful, some of the most influential and great emperors that we talk about, they might not be very pleasant people.
Yeah. Actually, as another side to a side, I think you mentioned whether it’s on your podcast or elsewhere, that if you had to have a beer with any of the emperors, you probably wouldn’t. So it’s not like some of the most impactful, some of the most influential and great emperors that we talk about, they might not be very pleasant people.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right. So let’s set aside whether you’d like to have a beer with these people. The reason I put Constantine at the top of the list is because the decisions that he made were so consequential, just important, and for the most part, not bad decisions. So I couldn’t not put him at the top of the list. The, you know, creating Constantinople and converting to Christianity and setting the empire on a path to conversion, these are major, like, world history level decisions.
Right. So let’s set aside whether you’d like to have a beer with these people. The reason I put Constantine at the top of the list is because the decisions that he made were so consequential, just important, and for the most part, not bad decisions. So I couldn’t not put him at the top of the list. The, you know, creating Constantinople and converting to Christianity and setting the empire on a path to conversion, these are major, like, world history level decisions.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? Now, not many emperors do that. In fact, Constantine is in, like, his own league when it comes to those kinds of decisions. My other criteria for top emperors were basically those who did the job well, right? Not making, you know, these kinds of earth, you know, shattering decisions or, you know, world history changing decisions, but just who performed the role competently with results that impacted the lives of their subjects for the better. So those are the other criteria that I used. It’s difficult to juggle these different criteria, right, in order to create a systematic list. And by the way, we, historians, generally don’t do these kinds of things. But you said it’s fun.
Right? Now, not many emperors do that. In fact, Constantine is in, like, his own league when it comes to those kinds of decisions. My other criteria for top emperors were basically those who did the job well, right? Not making, you know, these kinds of earth, you know, shattering decisions or, you know, world history changing decisions, but just who performed the role competently with results that impacted the lives of their subjects for the better. So those are the other criteria that I used. It’s difficult to juggle these different criteria, right, in order to create a systematic list. And by the way, we, historians, generally don’t do these kinds of things. But you said it’s fun.
Lex Fridman
It’s fun.
It’s fun.
Anthony Kaldellis
It is fun.
It is fun.
Lex Fridman
It was fun. It was fun.
It was fun. It was fun.
Anthony Kaldellis
And it allows you to talk about certain things that you might not otherwise do. So yeah, that’s why Constantine was at the top.
And it allows you to talk about certain things that you might not otherwise do. So yeah, that’s why Constantine was at the top.
Christianity in the Roman Empire
Lex Fridman
So you mentioned Christianity. That was one other big component of his rule. What was the role of Christianity in Constantine’s life, in the lives of the citizens of the new Roman Empire?
So you mentioned Christianity. That was one other big component of his rule. What was the role of Christianity in Constantine’s life, in the lives of the citizens of the new Roman Empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
At this stage, Christianity doesn’t have a role. It actually took the emperors… When the emperors took it on board, that is, they made it a part of the imperial system, then it began to acquire a role within the system. Previously, it had imagined itself as having its own history, like not necessarily part of the empire or affiliated with imperial power. But after Constantine, it does acquire a role.
At this stage, Christianity doesn’t have a role. It actually took the emperors… When the emperors took it on board, that is, they made it a part of the imperial system, then it began to acquire a role within the system. Previously, it had imagined itself as having its own history, like not necessarily part of the empire or affiliated with imperial power. But after Constantine, it does acquire a role.
Lex Fridman
And so actually, one way to ask that question, which is fascinating, ’cause you said that there’s like, there’s Rome, and then there’s like cultures or traditions like Christianity or being Greek, that kind of thing. So one of the ways to ask this question is: does Christianity triumph over Rome, or did Rome capture Christianity?
And so actually, one way to ask that question, which is fascinating, ’cause you said that there’s like, there’s Rome, and then there’s like cultures or traditions like Christianity or being Greek, that kind of thing. So one of the ways to ask this question is: does Christianity triumph over Rome, or did Rome capture Christianity?
Anthony Kaldellis
Right. Yes. That’s a—
Right. Yes. That’s a—
Lex Fridman
Which is the mechanism?
Which is the mechanism?
Anthony Kaldellis
I would lean more toward the second. In other words, that the religion was co-opted by the imperial system. Now, there are many areas in which that’s not the case and where the opposite happens, so I’m not gonna be absolute about it, but I think it’s very important to recognize that because Christianity generates this narrative of triumph— … right, which modern historians perpetuate, and it’s framed in very particular ways. In other words, that Christianity triumphs over the ancient religions.
I would lean more toward the second. In other words, that the religion was co-opted by the imperial system. Now, there are many areas in which that’s not the case and where the opposite happens, so I’m not gonna be absolute about it, but I think it’s very important to recognize that because Christianity generates this narrative of triumph— … right, which modern historians perpetuate, and it’s framed in very particular ways. In other words, that Christianity triumphs over the ancient religions.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? So displacing Zeus and Apollo and all of that, and animal sacrifice is gone, and like, that’s because Christianity triumphs, and that’s a very narrow way of looking at it. In other words, you pick your enemy, and then you can defeat that enemy, right? But if you look in the other direction, there’s, like, the Roman imperial state, and you cannot say that Christianity either triumphed over it or even tamed it or anything. It actually became part of it.
Right? So displacing Zeus and Apollo and all of that, and animal sacrifice is gone, and like, that’s because Christianity triumphs, and that’s a very narrow way of looking at it. In other words, you pick your enemy, and then you can defeat that enemy, right? But if you look in the other direction, there’s, like, the Roman imperial state, and you cannot say that Christianity either triumphed over it or even tamed it or anything. It actually became part of it.
Anthony Kaldellis
In many ways that, you know, determined its history for centuries and, in fact, down to today. So this is very different, for example, from the history of Islam. So Islam comes into existence without a preexisting state to receive it and take it on board. It creates its own state, right? So the Muslim armies, they conquer this empire, and then they have to sort of govern it. They think according to whatever Islamic principles. The Quran doesn’t say anything about running an empire.
In many ways that, you know, determined its history for centuries and, in fact, down to today. So this is very different, for example, from the history of Islam. So Islam comes into existence without a preexisting state to receive it and take it on board. It creates its own state, right? So the Muslim armies, they conquer this empire, and then they have to sort of govern it. They think according to whatever Islamic principles. The Quran doesn’t say anything about running an empire.
Anthony Kaldellis
So that creates a completely different society, right, where, like, Islam is really a primary kind of identity and, like, drives a lot of developments. But Christianity comes into existence within a very well-developed society and political system. Now, here’s the thing. We don’t know exactly how many Christians existed in the time of Constantine. Well, we speculate maybe 10% of the empire. That might be very high, right? But even if it’s 10%, it’s not a lot, and these are not, like, elites for the most part. Maybe middle, you know, what we loosely call middle class, a few elites, a few slaves, like this kind of thing. Mostly urban, and keeping in mind, most of the population is rural.
So that creates a completely different society, right, where, like, Islam is really a primary kind of identity and, like, drives a lot of developments. But Christianity comes into existence within a very well-developed society and political system. Now, here’s the thing. We don’t know exactly how many Christians existed in the time of Constantine. Well, we speculate maybe 10% of the empire. That might be very high, right? But even if it’s 10%, it’s not a lot, and these are not, like, elites for the most part. Maybe middle, you know, what we loosely call middle class, a few elites, a few slaves, like this kind of thing. Mostly urban, and keeping in mind, most of the population is rural.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? So pockets of concentrated, you know, Christian groups in cities. That’s what we’re talking about. Not terribly politically powerful.
Right? So pockets of concentrated, you know, Christian groups in cities. That’s what we’re talking about. Not terribly politically powerful.
Lex Fridman
So Constantine’s conversion to Christianity and moving the empire towards Christianity is not something where it’s a gigantic majority of the people— … or it’s a political convenience because it’s the elites. It’s something else. I mean, it’s a pretty revolutionary decision, I would say.
So Constantine’s conversion to Christianity and moving the empire towards Christianity is not something where it’s a gigantic majority of the people— … or it’s a political convenience because it’s the elites. It’s something else. I mean, it’s a pretty revolutionary decision, I would say.
Anthony Kaldellis
Exactly. Now, there used to be theories that Constantine did this for, like, pragmatic, cynical reasons, that he, like, wasn’t a true Christian or anything, but there was some kind of political gain to be had here. But I have never read a convincing account of what exactly that political gain is. We now know that there are fewer Christians. They were not that influential. You can make an argument that bishops are a kind of convenient social influencers, you might say. Like, you can use those. They’re not a threat to your position.
Exactly. Now, there used to be theories that Constantine did this for, like, pragmatic, cynical reasons, that he, like, wasn’t a true Christian or anything, but there was some kind of political gain to be had here. But I have never read a convincing account of what exactly that political gain is. We now know that there are fewer Christians. They were not that influential. You can make an argument that bishops are a kind of convenient social influencers, you might say. Like, you can use those. They’re not a threat to your position.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? So a bishop is not gonna try to take the throne. So they’re not dangerous political operatives in that way. But they do have some influence over sectors of society, and so that might be a… Okay, I see that, but I don’t quite see the argument for, like, going full Christian just to get the support of some bishops, who actually pretty quickly turn out to be, some of them, more trouble than they’re worth. Anyway, so I have not yet seen a convincing political argument for Constantine’s decision, which means that you then fall back on a personal explanation that he did this because he was a believing Christian, right? And he came out, you know, in support of the religion that he held, and that’s kind of where most scholars are today.
Right? So a bishop is not gonna try to take the throne. So they’re not dangerous political operatives in that way. But they do have some influence over sectors of society, and so that might be a… Okay, I see that, but I don’t quite see the argument for, like, going full Christian just to get the support of some bishops, who actually pretty quickly turn out to be, some of them, more trouble than they’re worth. Anyway, so I have not yet seen a convincing political argument for Constantine’s decision, which means that you then fall back on a personal explanation that he did this because he was a believing Christian, right? And he came out, you know, in support of the religion that he held, and that’s kind of where most scholars are today.
Anthony Kaldellis
Though, I gotta tell you, historians are very uncomfortable about personal choice, like explaining history in terms of these kinds of personal choices. Because Constantine’s conversion is like, it’s massive. It opens the door. It incentivizes so many people to also convert.
Though, I gotta tell you, historians are very uncomfortable about personal choice, like explaining history in terms of these kinds of personal choices. Because Constantine’s conversion is like, it’s massive. It opens the door. It incentivizes so many people to also convert.
Anthony Kaldellis
‘Cause Romans will generally do what their, you know, rulers will tell them. If we’ve mentioned Hadrian a few times, Hadrian had this lover, Antinous, Greek boy from Bithynia, who died in an accident in Egypt, whatever, and Hadrian said basically that Antinous should be regarded as a god throughout the empire. And he was. We have, like, more statues and busts of Antinous from all of these temples all over the empire than I think of anyone else except Hadrian. So yeah, if the emperor says, like, “This is a person who’s a god now, you know, put statues of him everywhere,” they will. And when Constantine comes out in favor of Christianity, you know, suddenly people discover that, oh, this is an interesting rite. It’s got the support of the emperor.
‘Cause Romans will generally do what their, you know, rulers will tell them. If we’ve mentioned Hadrian a few times, Hadrian had this lover, Antinous, Greek boy from Bithynia, who died in an accident in Egypt, whatever, and Hadrian said basically that Antinous should be regarded as a god throughout the empire. And he was. We have, like, more statues and busts of Antinous from all of these temples all over the empire than I think of anyone else except Hadrian. So yeah, if the emperor says, like, “This is a person who’s a god now, you know, put statues of him everywhere,” they will. And when Constantine comes out in favor of Christianity, you know, suddenly people discover that, oh, this is an interesting rite. It’s got the support of the emperor.
Lex Fridman
So one of the things here, going to the Perplexity, Constantine’s conversion to Christianity is usually dated to 312 AD linked to a visionary experience before the Battle of the Milvian Bridge. Do you believe that vision, that he had this religious experience before the Battle of the Milvian Bridge? Here it says, “But historians debate both its nature and its sincerity.”
So one of the things here, going to the Perplexity, Constantine’s conversion to Christianity is usually dated to 312 AD linked to a visionary experience before the Battle of the Milvian Bridge. Do you believe that vision, that he had this religious experience before the Battle of the Milvian Bridge? Here it says, “But historians debate both its nature and its sincerity.”
Anthony Kaldellis
Well—
Well—
Lex Fridman
Do you believe the sincerity of that experience?
Do you believe the sincerity of that experience?
Anthony Kaldellis
Before we even get to the sincerity— … is the problem of the sources. This is reported by authors writing later in the aftermath of a victory when the emperor… Like, one of them had a dinner conversation with the emperor a few decades later, and he said, “Well, let me tell you about the Milvian Bridge.” And it’s like, okay, I’m not gonna believe that. I’m not gonna take that at face value, rather. It’s a much more complicated… You know, this is how the emperor wants things to be remembered.
Before we even get to the sincerity— … is the problem of the sources. This is reported by authors writing later in the aftermath of a victory when the emperor… Like, one of them had a dinner conversation with the emperor a few decades later, and he said, “Well, let me tell you about the Milvian Bridge.” And it’s like, okay, I’m not gonna believe that. I’m not gonna take that at face value, rather. It’s a much more complicated… You know, this is how the emperor wants things to be remembered.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s different. Also, Constantine tended to have a lot of religious visions. He had had religious visions of Apollo before Christ, and we have sources that talk about that, too, that he went to this temple in Gaul, and Apollo appeared to him in the form of light. Okay, Constantine has a religious vision every time he kind of wants to shift policies and his, like, profile. Like, when he wanted to break away from his other emperors who used to go for the—like, they went for this kind of Jupiter/Hercules model. And he shifted to an Apollo model. This is a branding. This is emperors doing branding.
That’s different. Also, Constantine tended to have a lot of religious visions. He had had religious visions of Apollo before Christ, and we have sources that talk about that, too, that he went to this temple in Gaul, and Apollo appeared to him in the form of light. Okay, Constantine has a religious vision every time he kind of wants to shift policies and his, like, profile. Like, when he wanted to break away from his other emperors who used to go for the—like, they went for this kind of Jupiter/Hercules model. And he shifted to an Apollo model. This is a branding. This is emperors doing branding.
Lex Fridman
So we should say that, as you’ve described, Constantine is a pragmatist. He’s very pragmatic. But you’re saying it’s fair to believe, based on the evidence, that he actually converged towards being a Christian believer.
So we should say that, as you’ve described, Constantine is a pragmatist. He’s very pragmatic. But you’re saying it’s fair to believe, based on the evidence, that he actually converged towards being a Christian believer.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. It’s very possible, in fact plausible, that he thought the Christian God had helped him in battle. And, you know, for someone like him, that’s as good a reason as any to support that god.
Yeah. It’s very possible, in fact plausible, that he thought the Christian God had helped him in battle. And, you know, for someone like him, that’s as good a reason as any to support that god.
Lex Fridman
But he was not, like, a hardcore Christian all the way through. He was a kind of a spiritual, religious kind of person. He thought about religions more generally and just converged towards Christianity as a good religion. He also had ideas about what a good religion is— … and what a bad religion is, that kind of stuff. So he’s thinking in this space.
But he was not, like, a hardcore Christian all the way through. He was a kind of a spiritual, religious kind of person. He thought about religions more generally and just converged towards Christianity as a good religion. He also had ideas about what a good religion is— … and what a bad religion is, that kind of stuff. So he’s thinking in this space.
Anthony Kaldellis
He’s tending not to be too explicit. Depending on the audience. So Constantine remains a pragmatist in the sense that he doesn’t want to alienate too many of his subjects, right? And so he’s sometimes a bit coy or elusive about what he’s getting at. When he’s talking to Christians, he will talk about Christ. He will mention Christ. When he’s talking to everybody else in, like, a general law, he’ll just refer to good religion. And it’s like you, like, you, maybe you know what I mean, right? But he’s not gonna, like, you know, come to Jesus. Right?
He’s tending not to be too explicit. Depending on the audience. So Constantine remains a pragmatist in the sense that he doesn’t want to alienate too many of his subjects, right? And so he’s sometimes a bit coy or elusive about what he’s getting at. When he’s talking to Christians, he will talk about Christ. He will mention Christ. When he’s talking to everybody else in, like, a general law, he’ll just refer to good religion. And it’s like you, like, you, maybe you know what I mean, right? But he’s not gonna, like, you know, come to Jesus. Right?
Anthony Kaldellis
So even at the time when he’s, like, supporting the church, like, basically institutionalizing the church as an part—of the imperial system, but he’s also putting up statues of himself that look like Apollo in Constantinople, right? So the focal point of Constantine’s Constantinople is the Forum of Constantine. And in the middle is this very tall column, and it has a colossal statue of Constantine on top, gilded, enormous thing. I don’t know, like, eight meters tall or whatever. But it’s a repurposed Apollo. It’s even, it, like, visibly so. It’s naked. It has the rays coming out of the-
So even at the time when he’s, like, supporting the church, like, basically institutionalizing the church as an part—of the imperial system, but he’s also putting up statues of himself that look like Apollo in Constantinople, right? So the focal point of Constantine’s Constantinople is the Forum of Constantine. And in the middle is this very tall column, and it has a colossal statue of Constantine on top, gilded, enormous thing. I don’t know, like, eight meters tall or whatever. But it’s a repurposed Apollo. It’s even, it, like, visibly so. It’s naked. It has the rays coming out of the-
Anthony Kaldellis
… head, right? Right. And everybody knew it was an Apollo. So that’s Constantine in the guise of his old patron god, Apollo. Still, but he’s still Christian Constantine, so he’s sending all of these different messages.
… head, right? Right. And everybody knew it was an Apollo. So that’s Constantine in the guise of his old patron god, Apollo. Still, but he’s still Christian Constantine, so he’s sending all of these different messages.
Lex Fridman
I mean, he likes being the god-like figure. I mean, that whole statue just is like, “I am the god.”
I mean, he likes being the god-like figure. I mean, that whole statue just is like, “I am the god.”
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. It’s assimilating yourself to… Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah. It’s assimilating yourself to… Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
And I mean, a lot of the Romans, is it fair to say, kinda saw the emperor a little bit in that light?
And I mean, a lot of the Romans, is it fair to say, kinda saw the emperor a little bit in that light?
Anthony Kaldellis
No, yeah. Oh, yeah. They called him divine and— yeah. That, there’s not a hard theology there, right? Like, if you pressed them on the actual theology, they wouldn’t— … they wouldn’t say the emperor is a god. No. This is mushy. This gets very, very mushy.
No, yeah. Oh, yeah. They called him divine and— yeah. That, there’s not a hard theology there, right? Like, if you pressed them on the actual theology, they wouldn’t— … they wouldn’t say the emperor is a god. No. This is mushy. This gets very, very mushy.
Lex Fridman
But I mean, a lot of the Christians have a kinda humility before God. I think when you have an emperor that’s god-like, it gets a little weird-
But I mean, a lot of the Christians have a kinda humility before God. I think when you have an emperor that’s god-like, it gets a little weird-
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. Yes.
Yes. Yes.
Lex Fridman
… in the way you talk about God.
… in the way you talk about God.
Anthony Kaldellis
It depends on the context. Like, there are contexts in which you are an emperor and you’re proclaiming your majesty, and then there are more personal contexts where you might be more humble because, I don’t know, you’re being baptized or something. Like, those are different contexts.
It depends on the context. Like, there are contexts in which you are an emperor and you’re proclaiming your majesty, and then there are more personal contexts where you might be more humble because, I don’t know, you’re being baptized or something. Like, those are different contexts.
Lex Fridman
So can you speak to the whole process of the conversion to Christianity, of the- … propagation of Christianity throughout the empire and Constantine’s role in that?
So can you speak to the whole process of the conversion to Christianity, of the- … propagation of Christianity throughout the empire and Constantine’s role in that?
Anthony Kaldellis
Constantine, or his successors as well, because this was a gradual process, and it takes a very long time. So let’s let’s put it into perspective. We probably can’t talk about a majority Christian society until maybe the 5th century, or early 5th— … mid-5th. We, we don’t have data, obviously. And we can’t talk about, like, a solidly Christian society until early 6th century. And by solidly, I mean maybe where the non-Christians are 10, 15%, right? So that’s a long time. That’s, like, five centuries after Jesus. That’s half a millennium. So we’re talking about a half-millennial process here. It’s, it’s very long.
Constantine, or his successors as well, because this was a gradual process, and it takes a very long time. So let’s let’s put it into perspective. We probably can’t talk about a majority Christian society until maybe the 5th century, or early 5th— … mid-5th. We, we don’t have data, obviously. And we can’t talk about, like, a solidly Christian society until early 6th century. And by solidly, I mean maybe where the non-Christians are 10, 15%, right? So that’s a long time. That’s, like, five centuries after Jesus. That’s half a millennium. So we’re talking about a half-millennial process here. It’s, it’s very long.
Lex Fridman
But it’s only a couple of centuries after Constantine.
But it’s only a couple of centuries after Constantine.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
So it takes- … about two centuries to really make the Roman Empire Christian
So it takes- … about two centuries to really make the Roman Empire Christian
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. So very slow conversion, maybe, maybe up to 10% tops under Constantine. Then obviously larger and larger groups join the church, even if only nominally, right? Until you get to the sixth century when you’re clearly talking about a, you know, mostly or overwhelmingly Christian society. A lot of this is just done through incentives and disincentives, right? So bishops are given funds with which to distribute, like, charity and help to communities in distress. They have lists of widows and whatever they support. Land is given to the church by the emperors or in wills so that they can engage in this kind of social policy. And then there are disincentives. So emperors pass laws that increasingly restrict the exercise of traditional religion.
Yes. So very slow conversion, maybe, maybe up to 10% tops under Constantine. Then obviously larger and larger groups join the church, even if only nominally, right? Until you get to the sixth century when you’re clearly talking about a, you know, mostly or overwhelmingly Christian society. A lot of this is just done through incentives and disincentives, right? So bishops are given funds with which to distribute, like, charity and help to communities in distress. They have lists of widows and whatever they support. Land is given to the church by the emperors or in wills so that they can engage in this kind of social policy. And then there are disincentives. So emperors pass laws that increasingly restrict the exercise of traditional religion.
Anthony Kaldellis
Like, you can’t perform animal sacrifices, then you can’t start doing these like tying ribbons to make wishes or, like, all of these things, like going out to sacred trees and doing this or that, because they say, “Oh, this is kind of nefarious business,” or, like, magic or whatever it is. And then they just gradually start outlawing it more and more, putting restrictions on, like, if you’re not a Christian, you can’t hold these high offices or you can’t… Your… There’s problems with your wills. So they gradually do it like that. And this is how you… Yeah, this is… And it works. It works.
Like, you can’t perform animal sacrifices, then you can’t start doing these like tying ribbons to make wishes or, like, all of these things, like going out to sacred trees and doing this or that, because they say, “Oh, this is kind of nefarious business,” or, like, magic or whatever it is. And then they just gradually start outlawing it more and more, putting restrictions on, like, if you’re not a Christian, you can’t hold these high offices or you can’t… Your… There’s problems with your wills. So they gradually do it like that. And this is how you… Yeah, this is… And it works. It works.
Lex Fridman
What explains the success of Christianity after Constantine? Why, why was it, as a technology, so successful at spreading throughout the empire?
What explains the success of Christianity after Constantine? Why, why was it, as a technology, so successful at spreading throughout the empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
Christianity developed in a number of ways. So it acquired a certain number of forms that were capable of appealing to different constituencies. In other words, there was an intellectual side to it, the sort of theology, the almost quasi-philosophical or engagement with philosophical schools that could draw in, let’s say, intellectuals. There is a public ceremony and ritual aspect where you can organize communities and cities to have processions or, like, have all these festivals that take the place of the ancient ones. You have a kind of, it’s not secretive, but it’s kind of this initiatory aspect where there’s this baptism and you learn a sort of creed, and you’re initiated into the religion with the prospect of a personal afterlife, right? And that appeals to other kinds of people.
Christianity developed in a number of ways. So it acquired a certain number of forms that were capable of appealing to different constituencies. In other words, there was an intellectual side to it, the sort of theology, the almost quasi-philosophical or engagement with philosophical schools that could draw in, let’s say, intellectuals. There is a public ceremony and ritual aspect where you can organize communities and cities to have processions or, like, have all these festivals that take the place of the ancient ones. You have a kind of, it’s not secretive, but it’s kind of this initiatory aspect where there’s this baptism and you learn a sort of creed, and you’re initiated into the religion with the prospect of a personal afterlife, right? And that appeals to other kinds of people.
Anthony Kaldellis
There’s also ways in which it integrated itself into the court and the language of power. Also in the army, right? Soldiers now swear an oath to the Trinity, right? So it takes all of these different forms that enable it to position itself, you know, here and there and, you know, in the streets, in the court, in the armies, in the churches, in texts, in books. And so it has this kind of manifold diversity, right, that makes it very adaptable.
There’s also ways in which it integrated itself into the court and the language of power. Also in the army, right? Soldiers now swear an oath to the Trinity, right? So it takes all of these different forms that enable it to position itself, you know, here and there and, you know, in the streets, in the court, in the armies, in the churches, in texts, in books. And so it has this kind of manifold diversity, right, that makes it very adaptable.
Lex Fridman
So one of the things you mentioned that Constantine did not anticipate, did not realize, is that Christianity creates divisions between various groups.
So one of the things you mentioned that Constantine did not anticipate, did not realize, is that Christianity creates divisions between various groups.
Anthony Kaldellis
So in part, this is, happens when you have religions that make exclusive claims, right? Like, my beliefs are true- … and yours are by definition false. Not, not just wrong, but false and even kind of evil. Like maybe— … Satan put them in your mind to- … lead you astray, right? And this is inherently divisive. Like, it is. So there’s this paradox where Christianity, in contrast to, say, the ancient religions, is both far more polarizing but also far more powerful as a unifying force at the same time, right? So ancient religions tended not to produce this kind of conflict or identities, right, or wars or these kinds of things. And they could under certain circumstances, but for the most part, they were not drivers of history in this kind of way.
So in part, this is, happens when you have religions that make exclusive claims, right? Like, my beliefs are true- … and yours are by definition false. Not, not just wrong, but false and even kind of evil. Like maybe— … Satan put them in your mind to- … lead you astray, right? And this is inherently divisive. Like, it is. So there’s this paradox where Christianity, in contrast to, say, the ancient religions, is both far more polarizing but also far more powerful as a unifying force at the same time, right? So ancient religions tended not to produce this kind of conflict or identities, right, or wars or these kinds of things. And they could under certain circumstances, but for the most part, they were not drivers of history in this kind of way.
Anthony Kaldellis
But when you have exclusive claims, then suddenly these very communities that are sort of consolidated and have this very strong identity, but you also alienate other groups— … that you then are in conflict with. So this is why I, for one, can’t come down on whether, you know, Christianity is more of a unifying force or a divisive force in the history of the Eastern Empire, because it’s both.
But when you have exclusive claims, then suddenly these very communities that are sort of consolidated and have this very strong identity, but you also alienate other groups— … that you then are in conflict with. So this is why I, for one, can’t come down on whether, you know, Christianity is more of a unifying force or a divisive force in the history of the Eastern Empire, because it’s both.
Lex Fridman
And also trying to figure out whether the unifying or the divisive aspects are a feature or a bug.
And also trying to figure out whether the unifying or the divisive aspects are a feature or a bug.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Maybe some of the divisive elements is a way for society internally to try to, much like the civil wars, to try to figure itself out.
Maybe some of the divisive elements is a way for society internally to try to, much like the civil wars, to try to figure itself out.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
So sometimes tension and conflict is a good mechanism for figuring out what do the people want.
So sometimes tension and conflict is a good mechanism for figuring out what do the people want.
Anthony Kaldellis
Or what’s the truth, right?
Or what’s the truth, right?
Lex Fridman
Or what’s the truth.
Or what’s the truth.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. So the story that it likes to tell itself is that there’s this, like, this one original truth, and the hardcore of true believers is defending that truth at every moment against all of these evil heretics who are coming in-
Yeah. So the story that it likes to tell itself is that there’s this, like, this one original truth, and the hardcore of true believers is defending that truth at every moment against all of these evil heretics who are coming in-
Anthony Kaldellis
… and trying to corrupt it. In reality, what happens is that this truth is something that’s evolving in the course of the controversies. And, like, often they don’t know that they believed that until in retrospect, once they’ve had the fight and the winner has this position, oh, now that turns out to have been the position we always held, right? And this happens again and again and again. You know, a lot of the time, these Christian theologians who get into so much trouble and get branded as heretics and sometimes get sent into exile, they didn’t mean any harm. They often just were stating what they thought everybody believed.
… and trying to corrupt it. In reality, what happens is that this truth is something that’s evolving in the course of the controversies. And, like, often they don’t know that they believed that until in retrospect, once they’ve had the fight and the winner has this position, oh, now that turns out to have been the position we always held, right? And this happens again and again and again. You know, a lot of the time, these Christian theologians who get into so much trouble and get branded as heretics and sometimes get sent into exile, they didn’t mean any harm. They often just were stating what they thought everybody believed.
Anthony Kaldellis
And then when they blurt it out, someone off in Alexandria is like, “What? That’s heresy.” And then now you’re, now you’re in trouble. Now you’re getting into this fight, and you might win, you might lose. But, like, a lot of them were kind of sort of well-intentioned in that way, or they had no intention of starting a fight. But there’s always someone who wants to start a fight.
And then when they blurt it out, someone off in Alexandria is like, “What? That’s heresy.” And then now you’re, now you’re in trouble. Now you’re getting into this fight, and you might win, you might lose. But, like, a lot of them were kind of sort of well-intentioned in that way, or they had no intention of starting a fight. But there’s always someone who wants to start a fight.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, I mean, sometimes the fights are extremely intense over things that I could see on the surface or, like, iconography. It’s like, it seems like a very subtle- … debate, like almost academic. And then a large number of people don’t see it as academic. They, they do see it like “the devil put ideas in your head that are—” … completely wrong, and it’s, it’s fascinating how that kind of division can emerge. I mean, the impossible question, and I apologize for asking it, but maybe just worthwhile to try to think about it is, on the grand scale of centuries of the East Roman Empire, is religion a constructive or a destructive force for the empire? Did it help it flourish, or did it hold it back?
Yeah, I mean, sometimes the fights are extremely intense over things that I could see on the surface or, like, iconography. It’s like, it seems like a very subtle- … debate, like almost academic. And then a large number of people don’t see it as academic. They, they do see it like “the devil put ideas in your head that are—” … completely wrong, and it’s, it’s fascinating how that kind of division can emerge. I mean, the impossible question, and I apologize for asking it, but maybe just worthwhile to try to think about it is, on the grand scale of centuries of the East Roman Empire, is religion a constructive or a destructive force for the empire? Did it help it flourish, or did it hold it back?
Anthony Kaldellis
This society identified itself increasingly with what it saw as orthodoxy. Orthodoxy just means correct belief. I mean-
This society identified itself increasingly with what it saw as orthodoxy. Orthodoxy just means correct belief. I mean-
Anthony Kaldellis
… like every religion ultimately thinks it’s orthodox, right? That’s– But that’s the conventional name, right? Orthodoxy today might be called Greek Orthodoxy. And I mean, it’s such an essential part of the culture. It really is. I can’t think of the two of them inde… I mean, I try to because, as a historian, I have to test the models, you know, and try to see these things as independent of each other. But ultimately, it’s very difficult to disentangle them, and I would say that to the degree that this is a successful society historically, that its religion definitely contributed to that and played a role in it. Not without cost, right? It mattered to them. They valued it, but things that matter to you have a cost.
… like every religion ultimately thinks it’s orthodox, right? That’s– But that’s the conventional name, right? Orthodoxy today might be called Greek Orthodoxy. And I mean, it’s such an essential part of the culture. It really is. I can’t think of the two of them inde… I mean, I try to because, as a historian, I have to test the models, you know, and try to see these things as independent of each other. But ultimately, it’s very difficult to disentangle them, and I would say that to the degree that this is a successful society historically, that its religion definitely contributed to that and played a role in it. Not without cost, right? It mattered to them. They valued it, but things that matter to you have a cost.
Anthony Kaldellis
And, and they, they paid that price. They were willing to pay that price for it. For example, at the very end, they had to choose between Catholicism, Western rule, where they essentially have to compromise on their faith, or rule by Muslims, the Turks, where they would not have to compromise their faith. And some of them were explicit that they were preferring option B, because the Turks will at least respect our identity. Like, that’s a cost.
And, and they, they paid that price. They were willing to pay that price for it. For example, at the very end, they had to choose between Catholicism, Western rule, where they essentially have to compromise on their faith, or rule by Muslims, the Turks, where they would not have to compromise their faith. And some of them were explicit that they were preferring option B, because the Turks will at least respect our identity. Like, that’s a cost.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. But there’s other layers, like taxation and- … the, the, the functions of government- … that are connected to religion to the degree it interacts with the, the tax system. But it feels like that’s the engine of the society and, and religion is more like the cultural layer.
Yeah. But there’s other layers, like taxation and- … the, the, the functions of government- … that are connected to religion to the degree it interacts with the, the tax system. But it feels like that’s the engine of the society and, and religion is more like the cultural layer.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. So this is why I said that I try in thinking of the models that we use to understand the society, not to assume that religion is everywhere and for everything. Now, I have colleagues who do that, and I would disagree with them about this, but you’re exactly right. There are elements of this society that I like to see as their own thing.
Yeah. So this is why I said that I try in thinking of the models that we use to understand the society, not to assume that religion is everywhere and for everything. Now, I have colleagues who do that, and I would disagree with them about this, but you’re exactly right. There are elements of this society that I like to see as their own thing.
Anthony Kaldellis
Like the Roman identity, for example. It’s not the same as Orthodoxy. But also the operations of the state. Those are very pragmatic things, and you see them intersect with religion in, largely in areas of terminology or the vocabulary that they use or, you know, like at the top, but not at their actual functioning. So in my field, I’m a historian who’s tried to promote other aspects of the culture as having a kind of integrity of their own and not to subsume them all within Orthodoxy.
Like the Roman identity, for example. It’s not the same as Orthodoxy. But also the operations of the state. Those are very pragmatic things, and you see them intersect with religion in, largely in areas of terminology or the vocabulary that they use or, you know, like at the top, but not at their actual functioning. So in my field, I’m a historian who’s tried to promote other aspects of the culture as having a kind of integrity of their own and not to subsume them all within Orthodoxy.
Lex Fridman
So, I mean, again, an impossible way of asking the same question. If you asked a Roman, a million Romans across a thousand years, “Are you a Roman or a Christian?” what would be the answer for that?
So, I mean, again, an impossible way of asking the same question. If you asked a Roman, a million Romans across a thousand years, “Are you a Roman or a Christian?” what would be the answer for that?
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, both. Oh, absolutely.
Oh, both. Oh, absolutely.
Lex Fridman
No, you don’t get to say both. You’re not allowed to do that.
No, you don’t get to say both. You’re not allowed to do that.
Anthony Kaldellis
Why not? It’s the-
Why not? It’s the-
Lex Fridman
Well, you’re-
Well, you’re-
Anthony Kaldellis
It’s the true answer.
It’s the true answer.
Lex Fridman
Okay. So you’re saying they’re really tied together.
Okay. So you’re saying they’re really tied together.
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, they overlap. But if you were to… And this might be a somewhat more subtle conversation than most of them would want to have, but if you were to say, “Is Roman and Christian the same thing to you?” If they thought about it for a little while, they’d quickly be able to say no. Because there were, I mean, just logically, there were Christians who were not Romans.
Well, they overlap. But if you were to… And this might be a somewhat more subtle conversation than most of them would want to have, but if you were to say, “Is Roman and Christian the same thing to you?” If they thought about it for a little while, they’d quickly be able to say no. Because there were, I mean, just logically, there were Christians who were not Romans.
Anthony Kaldellis
The Bulgarians or the Rus or, you know, whoever. There were lots of Christians who were not Roman, and they did not regard them as Roman just because they were Christian. Conversely, they knew perfectly well that there had been Romans who were not Christians, and they knew this how? Because in the churches like almost every week, they celebrated martyrs who had been killed by the Roman emperors in the past. And so it was, like, the performance of violence by Roman emperors against Christians was, like, something they remembered. They knew perfectly well. So those two things did not overlap perfectly.
The Bulgarians or the Rus or, you know, whoever. There were lots of Christians who were not Roman, and they did not regard them as Roman just because they were Christian. Conversely, they knew perfectly well that there had been Romans who were not Christians, and they knew this how? Because in the churches like almost every week, they celebrated martyrs who had been killed by the Roman emperors in the past. And so it was, like, the performance of violence by Roman emperors against Christians was, like, something they remembered. They knew perfectly well. So those two things did not overlap perfectly.
Anthony Kaldellis
And there were some contexts in which you would be more Roman, and there were some contexts in which you would be more Christian. And you find characters who, and I love to do this. I find characters who as some sources say didn’t pay too much attention to Christian things. Like, they were just politicians. They were just doing their work. And then you find characters who, like, devote themselves. They go all in on Orthodoxy and, like, monasticism. They just don’t care about the Roman stuff at all.
And there were some contexts in which you would be more Roman, and there were some contexts in which you would be more Christian. And you find characters who, and I love to do this. I find characters who as some sources say didn’t pay too much attention to Christian things. Like, they were just politicians. They were just doing their work. And then you find characters who, like, devote themselves. They go all in on Orthodoxy and, like, monasticism. They just don’t care about the Roman stuff at all.
Anthony Kaldellis
And that is, in fact, part of the reason why I like this society, is because it has these kinds of options for people to choose. And there’s another one. There’s the Greek stuff, too, because their language is Greek, their literature is Greek, and so there are people in the society who go all in on the Greek stuff. Right? And I see this society as this kind of laboratory of these three elements coexisting in these fascinating combinations. Usually it’s combinations, right? But sometimes you’ll find people who are like, kinda try to be purists in one way or another. And it’s the only society in history in which you can do this, ’cause it’s the only society that’s Roman and Christian and Greek. But in different ways, right?
And that is, in fact, part of the reason why I like this society, is because it has these kinds of options for people to choose. And there’s another one. There’s the Greek stuff, too, because their language is Greek, their literature is Greek, and so there are people in the society who go all in on the Greek stuff. Right? And I see this society as this kind of laboratory of these three elements coexisting in these fascinating combinations. Usually it’s combinations, right? But sometimes you’ll find people who are like, kinda try to be purists in one way or another. And it’s the only society in history in which you can do this, ’cause it’s the only society that’s Roman and Christian and Greek. But in different ways, right?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, unfortunately, I think it’s tempting, but it’s probably impossible to say if we remove the taxation system, would the, would the Roman Empire be more or less successful? If we removed religion, would it be more or less successful? If we removed Greek and kept it Latin all the way through, would it be more or less successful? It’s probably impossible to do this kind of analysis ’cause they’re all so deeply integrated.
Yeah, unfortunately, I think it’s tempting, but it’s probably impossible to say if we remove the taxation system, would the, would the Roman Empire be more or less successful? If we removed religion, would it be more or less successful? If we removed Greek and kept it Latin all the way through, would it be more or less successful? It’s probably impossible to do this kind of analysis ’cause they’re all so deeply integrated.
Anthony Kaldellis
And fundamentally, it also wouldn’t be what it was. It would be something different.
And fundamentally, it also wouldn’t be what it was. It would be something different.
Lex Fridman
But there is a big temptation, and this is at the core of your work, to understand why did the East Roman Empire last as long as it did. And why did the broader Roman Empire last as long as it did? Because it is one of, if not the most successful empires in terms of duration and stability in a very dense part of the world.
But there is a big temptation, and this is at the core of your work, to understand why did the East Roman Empire last as long as it did. And why did the broader Roman Empire last as long as it did? Because it is one of, if not the most successful empires in terms of duration and stability in a very dense part of the world.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s actually like my next project. I’m starting to write a book trying to explain, just kind of from an analytical standpoint, why.
That’s actually like my next project. I’m starting to write a book trying to explain, just kind of from an analytical standpoint, why.
Fall of the Western Roman Empire
Lex Fridman
How did it last so long? A lot of your work kinda hints at it. It’s here and there. But you’re trying to do more systematic. So, and we’ll keep hinting at it. But to put a bow tie on Constantinople, it went from a very low population of maybe 25,000 people to 500,000 people in just two centuries. So can you explain how that happened?
How did it last so long? A lot of your work kinda hints at it. It’s here and there. But you’re trying to do more systematic. So, and we’ll keep hinting at it. But to put a bow tie on Constantinople, it went from a very low population of maybe 25,000 people to 500,000 people in just two centuries. So can you explain how that happened?
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, it didn’t happen through just demographic growth and reproduction in the city itself. That rate of growth is impossible for an ancient city. So when I say 20,000, 25,000, that’s possibly what the ancient city of Byzantium had-
Well, it didn’t happen through just demographic growth and reproduction in the city itself. That rate of growth is impossible for an ancient city. So when I say 20,000, 25,000, that’s possibly what the ancient city of Byzantium had-
Anthony Kaldellis
… when Constantine decided to found Constantinople, and it grew to a city of a half a million in two centuries. That can only have been done in one way, and that is immigration from the provinces. So people must have been moving there in large numbers, which is a movement that we can’t see very clearly in the sources, but we have to infer it and then try to explain it. So also there’s another factor, which is that ancient cities we now know or suspect are what some historians call death traps. In other words, the density of disease is such that ancient cities probably are losing something like 1, 2, possibly 3% of their population per year. So just in order to stay with a stable population, they have to import people.
… when Constantine decided to found Constantinople, and it grew to a city of a half a million in two centuries. That can only have been done in one way, and that is immigration from the provinces. So people must have been moving there in large numbers, which is a movement that we can’t see very clearly in the sources, but we have to infer it and then try to explain it. So also there’s another factor, which is that ancient cities we now know or suspect are what some historians call death traps. In other words, the density of disease is such that ancient cities probably are losing something like 1, 2, possibly 3% of their population per year. So just in order to stay with a stable population, they have to import people.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? Now, they’re not like 17th century London. They’re not that bad.
Right? Now, they’re not like 17th century London. They’re not that bad.
Lex Fridman
Do diseases and plagues seem to be prevalent?
Do diseases and plagues seem to be prevalent?
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, yeah. Now, you know, Roman cities have some corrections for these sorts of things, like the way they distribute the water through the city. Anyway, they, they weren’t as bad as they could’ve been, but there’s that. So not only to keep the population steady, but to expand it so dramatically means that a lot of people are coming in from the provinces, mostly the Greek-speaking provinces. So, you know, Greece, Asia Minor, and some of the major cities in the East that are Greek-speaking. And I start to wonder, like, well, how did this happen? Like, who are these people, for one thing? And then I did some simple calculations. So I mentioned earlier that we have something like two and a half thousand senators-
Oh, yeah. Now, you know, Roman cities have some corrections for these sorts of things, like the way they distribute the water through the city. Anyway, they, they weren’t as bad as they could’ve been, but there’s that. So not only to keep the population steady, but to expand it so dramatically means that a lot of people are coming in from the provinces, mostly the Greek-speaking provinces. So, you know, Greece, Asia Minor, and some of the major cities in the East that are Greek-speaking. And I start to wonder, like, well, how did this happen? Like, who are these people, for one thing? And then I did some simple calculations. So I mentioned earlier that we have something like two and a half thousand senators-
Anthony Kaldellis
… Who are required initially to reside in Constantinople. Well, senators don’t live in bachelor pads. Senators have manors. They have household staff, right? In Rome at the time, there’s a calculation that a senatorial household was something like 100 people, right? Just servants, slaves, dancing girls, cooks, barbers, whatever, right? So let’s assume sort of conservatively that in Constantinople it’s only 30 people, which might be low, right? So if you do the math, you’re starting to get something like, I mean, closer to 100,000 people, right? And that’s just by bringing in senators.
… Who are required initially to reside in Constantinople. Well, senators don’t live in bachelor pads. Senators have manors. They have household staff, right? In Rome at the time, there’s a calculation that a senatorial household was something like 100 people, right? Just servants, slaves, dancing girls, cooks, barbers, whatever, right? So let’s assume sort of conservatively that in Constantinople it’s only 30 people, which might be low, right? So if you do the math, you’re starting to get something like, I mean, closer to 100,000 people, right? And that’s just by bringing in senators.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? They come with people. So I think this was the nucleus of the population. Now then Constantine also makes provision for possibly up to like 200,000 people to receive the, the grain dole, the bread. So that would’ve incentivized even more people to travel there because there are-
Right? They come with people. So I think this was the nucleus of the population. Now then Constantine also makes provision for possibly up to like 200,000 people to receive the, the grain dole, the bread. So that would’ve incentivized even more people to travel there because there are-
Lex Fridman
So you get free bread.
So you get free bread.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. And you can’t live on that alone, but it is, it’s something.
Yes. And you can’t live on that alone, but it is, it’s something.
Lex Fridman
Incentive. Is it true that he diverted resources from Rome to Constantinople?
Incentive. Is it true that he diverted resources from Rome to Constantinople?
Anthony Kaldellis
Absolutely. Oh, yeah. That grain, that’s coming from Egypt. So New Rome is literally stealing food from the mouth of Old Rome. Now, Old Rome doesn’t starve because they, they divert other… Like from North Africa and Sicily, you can feed Rome, right?
Absolutely. Oh, yeah. That grain, that’s coming from Egypt. So New Rome is literally stealing food from the mouth of Old Rome. Now, Old Rome doesn’t starve because they, they divert other… Like from North Africa and Sicily, you can feed Rome, right?
Lex Fridman
But it sends a strong signal to the people living in Old Rome that long term we should probably move.
But it sends a strong signal to the people living in Old Rome that long term we should probably move.
Anthony Kaldellis
Some people do move. So we know of some senators who move from Rome. It sends a signal about the priorities of the state, like they’re investing much more in the East. And that the East would be regarded as an equal parallel Roman, you know, world. Yeah.
Some people do move. So we know of some senators who move from Rome. It sends a signal about the priorities of the state, like they’re investing much more in the East. And that the East would be regarded as an equal parallel Roman, you know, world. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
As we talk about diverting resources, slowly the West declines and collapses in 476 AD. So the Visigoths sack Rome in 410 AD, and in 476 AD, the last Western emperor is deposed, marking the end of the Western Roman Empire. High-level question: What is the reason for that decline and the collapse of the Western Roman Empire? So nonstop civil wars, as we’ve talked about, weak emperors. There’s an economic money crisis, so shrinking tax base, rising army costs. There was a loss of key provinces, especially in North Africa. Reliance on contracted barbarian troops as they immigrated more and more into- … The Western Roman Empire. Cascading invasions, migrations amplified by Hun pressure, and then the East-West split. The richer East survives, the West can’t stabilize under- … that split.
As we talk about diverting resources, slowly the West declines and collapses in 476 AD. So the Visigoths sack Rome in 410 AD, and in 476 AD, the last Western emperor is deposed, marking the end of the Western Roman Empire. High-level question: What is the reason for that decline and the collapse of the Western Roman Empire? So nonstop civil wars, as we’ve talked about, weak emperors. There’s an economic money crisis, so shrinking tax base, rising army costs. There was a loss of key provinces, especially in North Africa. Reliance on contracted barbarian troops as they immigrated more and more into- … The Western Roman Empire. Cascading invasions, migrations amplified by Hun pressure, and then the East-West split. The richer East survives, the West can’t stabilize under- … that split.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. The crux of the matter is that barbarian armies, so armies from outside the empire, put increasing pressure on it during the fifth century. And for whatever reason, when the Roman state failed to sort of suppress one of them and, say, settled them here or allowed them to have here or couldn’t stop them and they took over a province like the Vandals did in North Africa- … this created this kind of vicious cycle because then the Roman state lost access to the resources from those provinces, that is the taxes, and without those resources, they couldn’t, you know, maintain, mobilize, pay for their armies.
Yeah. The crux of the matter is that barbarian armies, so armies from outside the empire, put increasing pressure on it during the fifth century. And for whatever reason, when the Roman state failed to sort of suppress one of them and, say, settled them here or allowed them to have here or couldn’t stop them and they took over a province like the Vandals did in North Africa- … this created this kind of vicious cycle because then the Roman state lost access to the resources from those provinces, that is the taxes, and without those resources, they couldn’t, you know, maintain, mobilize, pay for their armies.
Anthony Kaldellis
Then they had fewer armies to handle the next wave of barbarians that came in. The previous barbarians who settled kind of declared their kind of independence. They also could not be put down, and so this created a vicious cycle that just continued in that way. It’s not rocket science, actually. I mean, you can see it playing out. Yeah. Now, who these groups are, where they came from, why did they cross, that, that, those are different questions, right? But from the Roman standpoint, that’s how it was experienced. These are armies that can defeat a Roman field army-
Then they had fewer armies to handle the next wave of barbarians that came in. The previous barbarians who settled kind of declared their kind of independence. They also could not be put down, and so this created a vicious cycle that just continued in that way. It’s not rocket science, actually. I mean, you can see it playing out. Yeah. Now, who these groups are, where they came from, why did they cross, that, that, those are different questions, right? But from the Roman standpoint, that’s how it was experienced. These are armies that can defeat a Roman field army-
Anthony Kaldellis
… right, in battle. And sometimes they do. And they then settle and take over territories, and then you lose the revenues, and so you can’t recruit your own armies. And so, anyway, that, that’s the kind of cycle. The East tried to help. Occasionally, they would send forces, but they were also subject to some of the same pressures. ‘Cause remember, the Goths cross the Danube for the first time in a major way in 376. Then you have the Battle of Adrianople a couple years later, where, like, one and a half field armies is just annihilated, and the Emperor Valens dies, and the Goths are just, like, kind of loose in the Balkans. And there was then a long war with them, four years.
… right, in battle. And sometimes they do. And they then settle and take over territories, and then you lose the revenues, and so you can’t recruit your own armies. And so, anyway, that, that’s the kind of cycle. The East tried to help. Occasionally, they would send forces, but they were also subject to some of the same pressures. ‘Cause remember, the Goths cross the Danube for the first time in a major way in 376. Then you have the Battle of Adrianople a couple years later, where, like, one and a half field armies is just annihilated, and the Emperor Valens dies, and the Goths are just, like, kind of loose in the Balkans. And there was then a long war with them, four years.
Anthony Kaldellis
It results in a kind of truce where neither side wins, and the Romans, for the first time, accept the presence of this quasi-independent Gothic army in the territory of the empire. This is unprecedented, as I said, and it creates a lot of tensions and dysfunctions. Okay, so why does the East survive and the West does not, right?
It results in a kind of truce where neither side wins, and the Romans, for the first time, accept the presence of this quasi-independent Gothic army in the territory of the empire. This is unprecedented, as I said, and it creates a lot of tensions and dysfunctions. Okay, so why does the East survive and the West does not, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
There’s… And so… Lots of reasons that we can give here, but one of them is the geography that we were talking about earlier. In other words, without a fleet, which they don’t have, the Goths can’t cross over from Thrace or the western Balkans to Asia Minor and go plunder some of the more prosperous provinces. So they’re stuck in the Balkans. They’re gradually pushed kind of in toward the western Balkans, which is, like, the worst part, you know, at the time, like, you wanna be in. And eventually, they just decide, “Well, you know, it’s kinda nicer in Naples.” And so they go to Italy, right? Just because there’s just a lot more resources there for them. And that’s one way that the East just kind of manages to…
There’s… And so… Lots of reasons that we can give here, but one of them is the geography that we were talking about earlier. In other words, without a fleet, which they don’t have, the Goths can’t cross over from Thrace or the western Balkans to Asia Minor and go plunder some of the more prosperous provinces. So they’re stuck in the Balkans. They’re gradually pushed kind of in toward the western Balkans, which is, like, the worst part, you know, at the time, like, you wanna be in. And eventually, they just decide, “Well, you know, it’s kinda nicer in Naples.” And so they go to Italy, right? Just because there’s just a lot more resources there for them. And that’s one way that the East just kind of manages to…
Anthony Kaldellis
It doesn’t do this deliberately, but the geography kind of pushes these invaders to the West.
It doesn’t do this deliberately, but the geography kind of pushes these invaders to the West.
Lex Fridman
So that’s one. So geography is some of it’s sort of the luck of geography and- … both of the invaders and the geography of the empire. But, you know, the, the East had a lot of invaders since- … and was able to still barely at times- … survive the invaders, so… And some of that could be luck. Some of it could be about the nature of the invaders and the effectiveness of their military, all that kind of stuff.
So that’s one. So geography is some of it’s sort of the luck of geography and- … both of the invaders and the geography of the empire. But, you know, the, the East had a lot of invaders since- … and was able to still barely at times- … survive the invaders, so… And some of that could be luck. Some of it could be about the nature of the invaders and the effectiveness of their military, all that kind of stuff.
Anthony Kaldellis
By the way, it worked in the other direction, too. So if you have, like, Persians or Arabs coming into Asia Minor from the East, they usually can’t cross over into your Balkan provinces. So you can fall back on one side or the other side. They… If you fortified Constantinople so that it’s an impregnable bunker, which it was, right? So you, you’re holding your command center in Constantinople. You can alternate between your European or your Asian provinces, depending on where the trouble is. You can call in reinforcements from either side. So the East does have that kind of advantage. This is not the reason why it survives for as long as it does, though it is a reason. You know, also, they acquire flamethrowers at some point, which- … those help, too.
By the way, it worked in the other direction, too. So if you have, like, Persians or Arabs coming into Asia Minor from the East, they usually can’t cross over into your Balkan provinces. So you can fall back on one side or the other side. They… If you fortified Constantinople so that it’s an impregnable bunker, which it was, right? So you, you’re holding your command center in Constantinople. You can alternate between your European or your Asian provinces, depending on where the trouble is. You can call in reinforcements from either side. So the East does have that kind of advantage. This is not the reason why it survives for as long as it does, though it is a reason. You know, also, they acquire flamethrowers at some point, which- … those help, too.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? Ultimately, I think it’s the decision made by local communities to stick with the Roman state, like, ultimately. Like, they’re not going to actively side with invaders. And when the trouble passes, they restore communities with Constantinople immediately. Like, this is their natural political home. And, and that’s the question that I’m really trying to answer, like, why does that happen?
Right? Ultimately, I think it’s the decision made by local communities to stick with the Roman state, like, ultimately. Like, they’re not going to actively side with invaders. And when the trouble passes, they restore communities with Constantinople immediately. Like, this is their natural political home. And, and that’s the question that I’m really trying to answer, like, why does that happen?
Lex Fridman
You know, we should say, just, just like we’ve articulated multiple times, that it, the Roman Empire survives- so it’s not like the Roman Empire collapsed and another Byzantine Empire was born. Really, there is a shift that happens, and part of that shift is because of Constantine, right? It’s not just about where the capital is, but I’m sure that there’s just a general move towards that direction from the West to the East. And, and that in many ways, you know, weak emperors and, and the West, the weak leaders, the structure of government, all these kinds of elements put together- … maybe demographic shifts and declines that have to do with the fact that the center of the empire has moved. And so ultimately-
You know, we should say, just, just like we’ve articulated multiple times, that it, the Roman Empire survives- so it’s not like the Roman Empire collapsed and another Byzantine Empire was born. Really, there is a shift that happens, and part of that shift is because of Constantine, right? It’s not just about where the capital is, but I’m sure that there’s just a general move towards that direction from the West to the East. And, and that in many ways, you know, weak emperors and, and the West, the weak leaders, the structure of government, all these kinds of elements put together- … maybe demographic shifts and declines that have to do with the fact that the center of the empire has moved. And so ultimately-
Lex Fridman
… it’s not that the West Roman Empire collapsed, it is that the center of the Roman Empire shifted. And because of that, the historic West collapsed.
… it’s not that the West Roman Empire collapsed, it is that the center of the Roman Empire shifted. And because of that, the historic West collapsed.
Anthony Kaldellis
It’s quite striking. So for example, already by, like in the 430s, Constantinople is basically codifying Roman law for the West. So Roman law in Latin is codified in Constantinople, and then sent to the West as, “Oh, here’s your law code.” And this is in the 430s, so after the alleged division between the two, which like I said, is kind of loose. It’s not hard and fast. In the 6th century, it is the East that reconquers part of the West under Justinian.
It’s quite striking. So for example, already by, like in the 430s, Constantinople is basically codifying Roman law for the West. So Roman law in Latin is codified in Constantinople, and then sent to the West as, “Oh, here’s your law code.” And this is in the 430s, so after the alleged division between the two, which like I said, is kind of loose. It’s not hard and fast. In the 6th century, it is the East that reconquers part of the West under Justinian.
Anthony Kaldellis
And not only that, he also recodifies Roman law on a much bigger scale, and then that law becomes Western law. So in a certain sense, Roman law as we know it comes from Constantinople. It doesn’t come from ancient Rome. I mean, ultimately it comes from ancient Rome, but we don’t have those versions of it. We have the East Roman versions of it. It is East Rome that reconquers Rome. This is a funny inversion, you know, because Constantinople is situated in a province, Thrace, which always was sort of considered backwards, right? In the time of, like, the early Caesars, if you were in Rome and you thought, you know, Thrace, it was like, “Ugh.” It’s like, you know, some sort of, yeah, armpit of the Roman Empire or something, you know?
And not only that, he also recodifies Roman law on a much bigger scale, and then that law becomes Western law. So in a certain sense, Roman law as we know it comes from Constantinople. It doesn’t come from ancient Rome. I mean, ultimately it comes from ancient Rome, but we don’t have those versions of it. We have the East Roman versions of it. It is East Rome that reconquers Rome. This is a funny inversion, you know, because Constantinople is situated in a province, Thrace, which always was sort of considered backwards, right? In the time of, like, the early Caesars, if you were in Rome and you thought, you know, Thrace, it was like, “Ugh.” It’s like, you know, some sort of, yeah, armpit of the Roman Empire or something, you know?
Anthony Kaldellis
But by Justinian’s time, it’s complete inversion. Like, the capital of the Roman world, the heart of it is there, and Rome is this kind of backwater provincial city in Italy, you know, that you’ve just liberated from the Goths, and it’s kind of in ruins. There are wolves roaming the streets of the Forum. So this is a complete overhaul of the centers of power. It’s turned inside out almost.
But by Justinian’s time, it’s complete inversion. Like, the capital of the Roman world, the heart of it is there, and Rome is this kind of backwater provincial city in Italy, you know, that you’ve just liberated from the Goths, and it’s kind of in ruins. There are wolves roaming the streets of the Forum. So this is a complete overhaul of the centers of power. It’s turned inside out almost.
Eunuchs, Taxes, and Power
Lex Fridman
And I think it’s fair to say that the reason the East… Part of the reason the East lasted as long as it did is the topic that we’ve mentioned, which is the structure of government. So can we just zoom out once again and explain the key ways the government functioned in the East Roman Empire, and how it evolved over the lifetime of the empire?
And I think it’s fair to say that the reason the East… Part of the reason the East lasted as long as it did is the topic that we’ve mentioned, which is the structure of government. So can we just zoom out once again and explain the key ways the government functioned in the East Roman Empire, and how it evolved over the lifetime of the empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
Very broadly speaking, there’s civilian and military, right? And you might actually add the church. It’s entirely plausible to treat the church as a kind of government institution at this time. But let’s just stick with military and civilian. The military is pretty straightforward, would be recognizable to any student of military history. This is how you recruit, organize, equip, pay, and lead soldiers. And the East Roman state tends to have a larger military, at least paper strength. Active is a different matter. Like, how many soldiers you take on a campaign is a different matter, but how many soldiers you maintain, like, in the provinces generally, right, is a… It tends to be on the large side for a medieval society, right?
Very broadly speaking, there’s civilian and military, right? And you might actually add the church. It’s entirely plausible to treat the church as a kind of government institution at this time. But let’s just stick with military and civilian. The military is pretty straightforward, would be recognizable to any student of military history. This is how you recruit, organize, equip, pay, and lead soldiers. And the East Roman state tends to have a larger military, at least paper strength. Active is a different matter. Like, how many soldiers you take on a campaign is a different matter, but how many soldiers you maintain, like, in the provinces generally, right, is a… It tends to be on the large side for a medieval society, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
So it compares favorably to, say, the Caliphate later on, which is a much more massive territorial entity. So the military is that. It can have anywhere between 100,000 at a minimum, at a low point, up to maybe about 250,000 at a high point, depending on the period. It’s a lot of people. It’s a lot of men. Factor in their families, right? These are also, like, part of the whole, you know, military economic complex, if you will.
So it compares favorably to, say, the Caliphate later on, which is a much more massive territorial entity. So the military is that. It can have anywhere between 100,000 at a minimum, at a low point, up to maybe about 250,000 at a high point, depending on the period. It’s a lot of people. It’s a lot of men. Factor in their families, right? These are also, like, part of the whole, you know, military economic complex, if you will.
Lex Fridman
And they’re career military, so, like, this is their job.
And they’re career military, so, like, this is their job.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And is the military for most of the history of the East Roman Empire defensive military?
And is the military for most of the history of the East Roman Empire defensive military?
Anthony Kaldellis
Mostly, but not always.
Mostly, but not always.
Lex Fridman
And we’ll talk about Justinian.
And we’ll talk about Justinian.
Anthony Kaldellis
And so then you have the civilian administration. Civilian administration does a number of things. Principally, it is to find the funds to pay for this army, which is the single largest expense on the state budget, right? And so in order to find those funds, it has to have a census of the assets, and it has to be able to tax them, and there are lots of different ways of doing that. So the civilian administration has a number of tax bureaus, record-keeping, this sort of thing, also a legal branch for resolving disputes with the imperial fisc. Okay. But the civilian administration does a number of other things, too.
And so then you have the civilian administration. Civilian administration does a number of things. Principally, it is to find the funds to pay for this army, which is the single largest expense on the state budget, right? And so in order to find those funds, it has to have a census of the assets, and it has to be able to tax them, and there are lots of different ways of doing that. So the civilian administration has a number of tax bureaus, record-keeping, this sort of thing, also a legal branch for resolving disputes with the imperial fisc. Okay. But the civilian administration does a number of other things, too.
Anthony Kaldellis
For example, the whole legal regulation of the empire: the courts, judges, courts of appeal, or also issuing laws, keeping records, all of this. And those are the main bureaus that have to do with the subjects of the empire.
For example, the whole legal regulation of the empire: the courts, judges, courts of appeal, or also issuing laws, keeping records, all of this. And those are the main bureaus that have to do with the subjects of the empire.
Anthony Kaldellis
The emperors obviously maintain bureaus that are for things like diplomacy, right, or running the palace staff because the palace is a huge institution, right? And then there are a number of endowments that, you know, major churches, Hagia Sophia, for example, has hundreds of staff, clergy to, you know, readers to whatever, and so they need to be paid, and so you need endowments. The imperial household, it has expenses, so it needs endowments, right? So there’s a lot of land that’s earmarked for these kinds of expenses, that requires administration. So this multiplies, right? I mean, go on and on and on and on.
The emperors obviously maintain bureaus that are for things like diplomacy, right, or running the palace staff because the palace is a huge institution, right? And then there are a number of endowments that, you know, major churches, Hagia Sophia, for example, has hundreds of staff, clergy to, you know, readers to whatever, and so they need to be paid, and so you need endowments. The imperial household, it has expenses, so it needs endowments, right? So there’s a lot of land that’s earmarked for these kinds of expenses, that requires administration. So this multiplies, right? I mean, go on and on and on and on.
Lex Fridman
And I’m sure the tax code is not a simple flat tax. It’s- … probably incredibly complicated. So it’s just like in the United States, it feels like the majority of the United States is basically lawyers and the IRS. That’s maybe 98%, I think, is lawyers.
And I’m sure the tax code is not a simple flat tax. It’s- … probably incredibly complicated. So it’s just like in the United States, it feels like the majority of the United States is basically lawyers and the IRS. That’s maybe 98%, I think, is lawyers.
Anthony Kaldellis
Lawyers.
Lawyers.
Lex Fridman
I’m not sure it’s scientifically-
I’m not sure it’s scientifically-
Anthony Kaldellis
I thought they shrunk the IRS down now to a size that it can’t, like, actually do anything.
I thought they shrunk the IRS down now to a size that it can’t, like, actually do anything.
Lex Fridman
They shrunk it down-
They shrunk it down-
Anthony Kaldellis
I thought it was just-
I thought it was just-
Lex Fridman
… to just 90% now.
… to just 90% now.
Anthony Kaldellis
90, just 90.
90, just 90.
Lex Fridman
No. I think there is something—this is another conversation about human nature and about the nature of governments, but there’s something about, like, I think it’s impossible to have an IRS-type organization that doesn’t grow. I think maybe with good intentions because you can’t—you have to, like— … everybody always comes to you, “Well, I don’t… Here’s my special case. I want my tax to be lower.” And they kind of add another line. “All right, if you have— … purple hair, you—”
No. I think there is something—this is another conversation about human nature and about the nature of governments, but there’s something about, like, I think it’s impossible to have an IRS-type organization that doesn’t grow. I think maybe with good intentions because you can’t—you have to, like— … everybody always comes to you, “Well, I don’t… Here’s my special case. I want my tax to be lower.” And they kind of add another line. “All right, if you have— … purple hair, you—”
Anthony Kaldellis
Right, right.
Right, right.
Lex Fridman
… the tax decrease. And so you keep adding, and then of course, the more you add, the more opaque the thing becomes. Therefore, corruption seeps in or, you know, maybe not like official corruption, but— … corruption light, and then that tax code grows, and then all of a sudden you have these big institutions that then—
… the tax decrease. And so you keep adding, and then of course, the more you add, the more opaque the thing becomes. Therefore, corruption seeps in or, you know, maybe not like official corruption, but— … corruption light, and then that tax code grows, and then all of a sudden you have these big institutions that then—
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes
Yes
Lex Fridman
… encourage corruption, and then there’s a bureaucracy, and there’s a momentum, and this is just how humans are.
… encourage corruption, and then there’s a bureaucracy, and there’s a momentum, and this is just how humans are.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. So this happens in East Roman society too. I’ll give you some examples. So there’s not a tax code as such, but what you— The way it operates is through basically exemptions. So you petition for an exemption. You might be a monastery, you might be a wealthy— You might be someone well-connected to the court. You might be a struggling provincial village, and you petition the emperor or some official, and you say, “Hey, we know we had a bad season,” or, “The barbarians came through and they took all of our… We can’t pay the taxes. Could we have an exemption?” And emperors often are granting these exemptions for very specific things, like maybe for this year or for that tax or whatever.
Yes. So this happens in East Roman society too. I’ll give you some examples. So there’s not a tax code as such, but what you— The way it operates is through basically exemptions. So you petition for an exemption. You might be a monastery, you might be a wealthy— You might be someone well-connected to the court. You might be a struggling provincial village, and you petition the emperor or some official, and you say, “Hey, we know we had a bad season,” or, “The barbarians came through and they took all of our… We can’t pay the taxes. Could we have an exemption?” And emperors often are granting these exemptions for very specific things, like maybe for this year or for that tax or whatever.
Anthony Kaldellis
The problem is that the emperors are discovering every once in a while that their officials are granting these exemptions sort of on their own. So every once in a while, the emperors have to, like, clear house when they have to, like, cancel all of these exemptions and start the whole process again. But later on, once we start to have documentation, like maybe in the 11th century, we see that every little—well, not every, but we have all these monasteries, these little villages, these high officials, and they all have these documents that give them exemption from this or that or the other thing, and it gets so complicated, and that’s how it works.
The problem is that the emperors are discovering every once in a while that their officials are granting these exemptions sort of on their own. So every once in a while, the emperors have to, like, clear house when they have to, like, cancel all of these exemptions and start the whole process again. But later on, once we start to have documentation, like maybe in the 11th century, we see that every little—well, not every, but we have all these monasteries, these little villages, these high officials, and they all have these documents that give them exemption from this or that or the other thing, and it gets so complicated, and that’s how it works.
Lex Fridman
But it is the engine of society that makes the whole thing work, ’cause you have to fund—I mean, there’s infrastructure projects, but you have to also fund the army, and the army’s necessary to defend against all the military incursions.
But it is the engine of society that makes the whole thing work, ’cause you have to fund—I mean, there’s infrastructure projects, but you have to also fund the army, and the army’s necessary to defend against all the military incursions.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Lex Fridman
A good fraction of the bureaucracy seemed to have been eunuchs, which are castrated men. Can you explain why this was a prominent thing?
A good fraction of the bureaucracy seemed to have been eunuchs, which are castrated men. Can you explain why this was a prominent thing?
Anthony Kaldellis
The eunuchs are part of the household staff of the emperor. So that would be like—what would it be? The West Wing of the White House or something like this. So they are the people who handle the imperial person, the bedchamber, the organization of palace life—things like banquets, you know, these kinds of things—the wardrobe. And why are they important? So for, for starters, if you’re, like, physically with the emperor all day, right? Like, you’re handling the meetings, you’re… Right? People can come to you and say, “Hey, I need you to put in a good word for whatever,” right? So they can get things done. So you, you bribe them, they get things done. So they’re very useful in this way. They’re also kind of hated for that reason.
The eunuchs are part of the household staff of the emperor. So that would be like—what would it be? The West Wing of the White House or something like this. So they are the people who handle the imperial person, the bedchamber, the organization of palace life—things like banquets, you know, these kinds of things—the wardrobe. And why are they important? So for, for starters, if you’re, like, physically with the emperor all day, right? Like, you’re handling the meetings, you’re… Right? People can come to you and say, “Hey, I need you to put in a good word for whatever,” right? So they can get things done. So you, you bribe them, they get things done. So they’re very useful in this way. They’re also kind of hated for that reason.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? But they’re also kind of there to be hated. In other words, they soak up a lot of the frustration that people sometimes feel when they’re not getting, you know, what they want from the court. Okay. That’s one thing. Here’s the other thing that’s more interesting. How do you as an emperor make sure that your bureaucracy doesn’t displace you? Like, if the bureaucracy is handling all the matters of running the empire, what do we need you for? Right? Like, the bureaucracy can develop rules of its own-
Right? But they’re also kind of there to be hated. In other words, they soak up a lot of the frustration that people sometimes feel when they’re not getting, you know, what they want from the court. Okay. That’s one thing. Here’s the other thing that’s more interesting. How do you as an emperor make sure that your bureaucracy doesn’t displace you? Like, if the bureaucracy is handling all the matters of running the empire, what do we need you for? Right? Like, the bureaucracy can develop rules of its own-
Anthony Kaldellis
… for solving all the problems, for dealing with petitions and exemptions and whatever. Like, they can do it. So where’s your power exactly? So what the emperors did not want is to be displaced or overshadowed by these kinds of more impersonal institutions. And so they would often set up parallel tracks of power. So this could be a bit confusing. So eunuchs were perfect for this reason because often their origin was from outside the empire, or they were former slaves. They weren’t connected to, like, networks of powerful families.
… for solving all the problems, for dealing with petitions and exemptions and whatever. Like, they can do it. So where’s your power exactly? So what the emperors did not want is to be displaced or overshadowed by these kinds of more impersonal institutions. And so they would often set up parallel tracks of power. So this could be a bit confusing. So eunuchs were perfect for this reason because often their origin was from outside the empire, or they were former slaves. They weren’t connected to, like, networks of powerful families.
Anthony Kaldellis
So you knew that they would generally be loyal to you because they depended entirely on you, the emperor, for their position and their power. And what you would sometimes do is you’d say, “Okay, I’m putting you in charge of, like, this army.” Literally, like putting you in charge of an army, just so that you can counterbalance the kind of networks of established generals, and you’ll have, like, no, a eunuch from my wardrobe. You know, I’m putting him in charge. And so this kind of shook things up a little bit so that people who were part of a system or a network could never fully count that that could get them all the power that they wanted. They now they have to answer to this eunuch from the wardrobe who’s, like, outside of their system.
So you knew that they would generally be loyal to you because they depended entirely on you, the emperor, for their position and their power. And what you would sometimes do is you’d say, “Okay, I’m putting you in charge of, like, this army.” Literally, like putting you in charge of an army, just so that you can counterbalance the kind of networks of established generals, and you’ll have, like, no, a eunuch from my wardrobe. You know, I’m putting him in charge. And so this kind of shook things up a little bit so that people who were part of a system or a network could never fully count that that could get them all the power that they wanted. They now they have to answer to this eunuch from the wardrobe who’s, like, outside of their system.
Anthony Kaldellis
And sometimes these eunuchs were extremely competent, like Narses, Justinian’s general, who defeated the Goths in Italy in this massive battle. Like, this guy was a total hardass. And he was this little old man. He was very old, and he was tiny, and he was a eunuch, and the Goths laughed at him, but he had the last laugh, right?
And sometimes these eunuchs were extremely competent, like Narses, Justinian’s general, who defeated the Goths in Italy in this massive battle. Like, this guy was a total hardass. And he was this little old man. He was very old, and he was tiny, and he was a eunuch, and the Goths laughed at him, but he had the last laugh, right?
Lex Fridman
Is there some component to them being eunuchs, so they can’t propagate the bloodline?
Is there some component to them being eunuchs, so they can’t propagate the bloodline?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. They can’t have their own family, so they can’t be, like, looking out for their own offspring. They’re kind of, um, isolated individuals who depend entirely on your favor.
Yeah. They can’t have their own family, so they can’t be, like, looking out for their own offspring. They’re kind of, um, isolated individuals who depend entirely on your favor.
Lex Fridman
Is it known whether the castration is almost always by force?
Is it known whether the castration is almost always by force?
Anthony Kaldellis
There are eunuchs in society generally. They’re often bishops. They’re appointed Patriarch of Constantinople sometimes. They’re- … they’re in all kinds of positions. Many of them are children who are enslaved and castrated against their will. Sometimes, however, they are castrated very much according to the will of their families. In some parts of, like in Caucasia, there were some regions that were famous for producing eunuchs, also in, in Persia and so forth. But also, we are pretty sure that this happened within the empire, because there were some families that, like, really wanted to place a eunuch at the court. So from Paphlagonia, there were a number of… This is in northern Asia Minor. And so they would… It was almost like a family strategy.
There are eunuchs in society generally. They’re often bishops. They’re appointed Patriarch of Constantinople sometimes. They’re- … they’re in all kinds of positions. Many of them are children who are enslaved and castrated against their will. Sometimes, however, they are castrated very much according to the will of their families. In some parts of, like in Caucasia, there were some regions that were famous for producing eunuchs, also in, in Persia and so forth. But also, we are pretty sure that this happened within the empire, because there were some families that, like, really wanted to place a eunuch at the court. So from Paphlagonia, there were a number of… This is in northern Asia Minor. And so they would… It was almost like a family strategy.
Lex Fridman
I mean, it’s fascinating. It’s fascinating that they had so much representation in the inner circles— … of the emperor, and therefore had real influence.
I mean, it’s fascinating. It’s fascinating that they had so much representation in the inner circles— … of the emperor, and therefore had real influence.
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, yeah. But this was the case always, even in Rome, like in the Julio-Claudians under- … you know, the first Caesars. There are all these powerful eunuchs, and the senatorial class always hates them. I mean, it’s just the same dynamic.
Oh, yeah. But this was the case always, even in Rome, like in the Julio-Claudians under- … you know, the first Caesars. There are all these powerful eunuchs, and the senatorial class always hates them. I mean, it’s just the same dynamic.
Lex Fridman
One of the interesting things you’ve said as an aside in one of the many podcasts that I listened with you is you said that there were no isolated people, you know, people that are disconnected- … from the empire maybe who, for example, don’t know about the taxes or just don’t feel integrated into the system. I mean, that’s really interesting to me, that there’s so much connectivity, there’s so much cohesion- … as an entire peoples.
One of the interesting things you’ve said as an aside in one of the many podcasts that I listened with you is you said that there were no isolated people, you know, people that are disconnected- … from the empire maybe who, for example, don’t know about the taxes or just don’t feel integrated into the system. I mean, that’s really interesting to me, that there’s so much connectivity, there’s so much cohesion- … as an entire peoples.
Anthony Kaldellis
These people do not exist, these isolated peasants. This is a myth that I, one day I’m gonna write a chapter about this because it’s this idea that you occasionally encounter, well, actually quite often in the scholarship, that there are these sort of rural communities out there somewhere that don’t know what’s going on in Constantinople. They might not know, even know who the emperor is. They’re cut off. Maybe a tax official will show up every once in a while, maybe not, and they just live their lives on their own, unaffected by the, say, state, because the medieval state, we suspect, is, you know, always powerless and can’t, you know, affect people’s lives. There’s no proof for these communities at all.
These people do not exist, these isolated peasants. This is a myth that I, one day I’m gonna write a chapter about this because it’s this idea that you occasionally encounter, well, actually quite often in the scholarship, that there are these sort of rural communities out there somewhere that don’t know what’s going on in Constantinople. They might not know, even know who the emperor is. They’re cut off. Maybe a tax official will show up every once in a while, maybe not, and they just live their lives on their own, unaffected by the, say, state, because the medieval state, we suspect, is, you know, always powerless and can’t, you know, affect people’s lives. There’s no proof for these communities at all.
Anthony Kaldellis
At most, you might try to find some, like, actual hermits, like, actual Christian ascetic hermits who try to go out and find this situation, and sometimes they’re described in the text as, like, oh, so-and-so went so far out into the mountains that, like, not even the tax census people showed up there, which, which tells you how they think about what it means to be isolated, right? So this is not a… This is a state in which every arable piece of land has been censused for centuries. It’s not like you can hide a village, right? And the taxation process is not like, what, they visit once a year, give us some coin, and we’ll leave. It’s actually more like three times a year.
At most, you might try to find some, like, actual hermits, like, actual Christian ascetic hermits who try to go out and find this situation, and sometimes they’re described in the text as, like, oh, so-and-so went so far out into the mountains that, like, not even the tax census people showed up there, which, which tells you how they think about what it means to be isolated, right? So this is not a… This is a state in which every arable piece of land has been censused for centuries. It’s not like you can hide a village, right? And the taxation process is not like, what, they visit once a year, give us some coin, and we’ll leave. It’s actually more like three times a year.
Anthony Kaldellis
And the taxes are not just coin and maybe a payment in kind or something, but it’s, it’s a whole bunch of things like services and recruits and all… You’re right. And once you start adding all of these things up, it creates a very dense institutional matrix in which all communities are enmeshed.
And the taxes are not just coin and maybe a payment in kind or something, but it’s, it’s a whole bunch of things like services and recruits and all… You’re right. And once you start adding all of these things up, it creates a very dense institutional matrix in which all communities are enmeshed.
Anthony Kaldellis
They can’t get out of it. Also, they, they have a church, don’t they? And if they have a church, they have the calendar. And of course they have the calendar because… So, like, how do they organize time and space and boundaries and all of these things? No, this is all state institut- How do they pay for anything? They have coins. Coins are everywhere. So I think that these institutions structured the way that everyone, even in village communities, even in the most isolated ones, supposedly, how they thought about things like time and space and value and relations and power and kinship and so forth.
They can’t get out of it. Also, they, they have a church, don’t they? And if they have a church, they have the calendar. And of course they have the calendar because… So, like, how do they organize time and space and boundaries and all of these things? No, this is all state institut- How do they pay for anything? They have coins. Coins are everywhere. So I think that these institutions structured the way that everyone, even in village communities, even in the most isolated ones, supposedly, how they thought about things like time and space and value and relations and power and kinship and so forth.
Lex Fridman
So what you’re saying is taxation is the thing that brings the empire together.
So what you’re saying is taxation is the thing that brings the empire together.
Anthony Kaldellis
It is, principally, yes.
It is, principally, yes.
Lex Fridman
I mean, it’s- … it’s true, right? This is, like, this is how you know.
I mean, it’s- … it’s true, right? This is, like, this is how you know.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. But on top of that is layered things like the economy, coins, right? But also there’s the church.
Yeah. But on top of that is layered things like the economy, coins, right? But also there’s the church.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, and the church is important, just like you said. And there’s churches throughout the empire.
Yeah, and the church is important, just like you said. And there’s churches throughout the empire.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, and they have sermons, and they pray for the emperor after this service. No, there are no isolated communities.
Yes, and they have sermons, and they pray for the emperor after this service. No, there are no isolated communities.
Lex Fridman
So one of the things I briefly mentioned just would be nice to elaborate on is this term of monarchic republic. So we’ve been throwing around words like kingdom and republic and empire and monarchy. So what is the actual… What’s a good applicable term to what this thing is- … the East Roman Empire?
So one of the things I briefly mentioned just would be nice to elaborate on is this term of monarchic republic. So we’ve been throwing around words like kingdom and republic and empire and monarchy. So what is the actual… What’s a good applicable term to what this thing is- … the East Roman Empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s an excellent question, and I’m glad you flagged that because we call it conventionally Byzantine Empire, and it’s neither of those things really. We talked about Byzantine. Now, empire’s a bit of a problem because first of all there’s no term in Greek, in the Greek that they use at this period, that corresponds to our notion of empire. It’s not part of the official terms. It’s not even… They didn’t even have a term for it. You could have… There’s some terms that might mean something like state, arche maybe or kratos. But for the most part, it’s either basileia, which we might translate as monarchy, or politeia, which is polity. And politeia in Greek, polity, is a Greek translation of Latin res publica.
That’s an excellent question, and I’m glad you flagged that because we call it conventionally Byzantine Empire, and it’s neither of those things really. We talked about Byzantine. Now, empire’s a bit of a problem because first of all there’s no term in Greek, in the Greek that they use at this period, that corresponds to our notion of empire. It’s not part of the official terms. It’s not even… They didn’t even have a term for it. You could have… There’s some terms that might mean something like state, arche maybe or kratos. But for the most part, it’s either basileia, which we might translate as monarchy, or politeia, which is polity. And politeia in Greek, polity, is a Greek translation of Latin res publica.
Anthony Kaldellis
Res publica doesn’t mean republic the way we mean it for the Romans, like a non-monarchical regime, right? That’s how we mean, like, the American Republic or, you know. That’s a usage that came in later, like during the Enlightenment. In Latin, a res publica is the common affairs, the common interest of a people who are constituted as a political community, regardless of the type of regime that they have. Like even Cicero could imagine the Roman res publica governed by a king or by a senate or by a democracy. And they continue to use that term. We don’t use it according to Roman norms. We use it according to modern norms, the term republic. So they continue to call it a res publica or a polity under the emperors as well, right?
Res publica doesn’t mean republic the way we mean it for the Romans, like a non-monarchical regime, right? That’s how we mean, like, the American Republic or, you know. That’s a usage that came in later, like during the Enlightenment. In Latin, a res publica is the common affairs, the common interest of a people who are constituted as a political community, regardless of the type of regime that they have. Like even Cicero could imagine the Roman res publica governed by a king or by a senate or by a democracy. And they continue to use that term. We don’t use it according to Roman norms. We use it according to modern norms, the term republic. So they continue to call it a res publica or a polity under the emperors as well, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
And it was understood that the role of the emperor, whether he’s Caesar or basileus or whatever, whatever language, was to serve the polity. They keep saying this. So the terms that occur in the sources most commonly are basileia of the Romans, polity of the Romans, or Romania, which is the proper name of this state. Not empire.
And it was understood that the role of the emperor, whether he’s Caesar or basileus or whatever, whatever language, was to serve the polity. They keep saying this. So the terms that occur in the sources most commonly are basileia of the Romans, polity of the Romans, or Romania, which is the proper name of this state. Not empire.
Anthony Kaldellis
Now, empire. Empire in modern English commonly, an empire is a state that’s created when one group conquers a bunch of others and rules them. It could be an ethnic group. It could be an ethnoreligious group. It could be a political group, whatever. But there’s an act of conquest, and results in a state where one group is ruling over others. That’s not how Romania is actually constituted. We’ve talked about this. It’s, for the most part, all Roman citizens ruling themselves—like Roman subjects ruling themselves through their own government. So it’s not an empire strictly speaking. Now, occasionally, they will conquer other people, right? We talked about the warfare. Sometimes it’s not just defensive. Sometimes it’s offensive, right?
Now, empire. Empire in modern English commonly, an empire is a state that’s created when one group conquers a bunch of others and rules them. It could be an ethnic group. It could be an ethnoreligious group. It could be a political group, whatever. But there’s an act of conquest, and results in a state where one group is ruling over others. That’s not how Romania is actually constituted. We’ve talked about this. It’s, for the most part, all Roman citizens ruling themselves—like Roman subjects ruling themselves through their own government. So it’s not an empire strictly speaking. Now, occasionally, they will conquer other people, right? We talked about the warfare. Sometimes it’s not just defensive. Sometimes it’s offensive, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
In that case, you do establish an imperial relationship. Like we, the Romans, are ruling over this other group. Could be Slavs, it could be Bulgarians for a while, it could be whatever. Or even some Muslims in northern Syria for a while in the 11th century who—and you are not Romans. And that’s an imperial relationship. The question is, how many of these imperial relationships do you need to decide that, well, we’ve reached a tipping point, and now we’re just gonna call the whole thing an empire? Personally, I don’t think we ever reach that point. I mean, all states, even today, have like minorities. Some of them are part of that state because they were conquered once upon a time. But we don’t call those states empires necessarily. Even though…
In that case, you do establish an imperial relationship. Like we, the Romans, are ruling over this other group. Could be Slavs, it could be Bulgarians for a while, it could be whatever. Or even some Muslims in northern Syria for a while in the 11th century who—and you are not Romans. And that’s an imperial relationship. The question is, how many of these imperial relationships do you need to decide that, well, we’ve reached a tipping point, and now we’re just gonna call the whole thing an empire? Personally, I don’t think we ever reach that point. I mean, all states, even today, have like minorities. Some of them are part of that state because they were conquered once upon a time. But we don’t call those states empires necessarily. Even though…
Anthony Kaldellis
Like, look at the United Kingdom. Well, Wales was conquered. And, you know, the Welsh have their own identity, their own language. I don’t know that you would call that now an imperial relationship. Maybe. I don’t know.
Like, look at the United Kingdom. Well, Wales was conquered. And, you know, the Welsh have their own identity, their own language. I don’t know that you would call that now an imperial relationship. Maybe. I don’t know.
Lex Fridman
I think there’s also a synonymous use of the word empire that refers to the power that the state has- … in the global context geopolitically. So sometimes empire is used synonymously with superpower, meaning it’s one of the primary- … nations in the world, and it doesn’t necessarily have to do with the imperial nature of its history.
I think there’s also a synonymous use of the word empire that refers to the power that the state has- … in the global context geopolitically. So sometimes empire is used synonymously with superpower, meaning it’s one of the primary- … nations in the world, and it doesn’t necessarily have to do with the imperial nature of its history.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s true.
That’s true.
Lex Fridman
Hence the sort of American empire, US empire.
Hence the sort of American empire, US empire.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. Though you would never characterize the American political regime as an imperial one insofar as it does not have an emperor, for example. But anyway, yes. The problem is that in my field, we use the term empire conventionally, even when what you just described is clearly not happening, like even toward the end. It’s not a major world power. It, like, has a few islands in the Peloponnese, but we call it empire and the emperor, and it’s like, it’s completely ridiculous. There’s not even a term in their language for that sort of thing. Anyway, we can call things whatever we want, just so we understand what the reality is- … and what we are using those terms to mean. I think that’s the important thing. Yeah.
Yes. Though you would never characterize the American political regime as an imperial one insofar as it does not have an emperor, for example. But anyway, yes. The problem is that in my field, we use the term empire conventionally, even when what you just described is clearly not happening, like even toward the end. It’s not a major world power. It, like, has a few islands in the Peloponnese, but we call it empire and the emperor, and it’s like, it’s completely ridiculous. There’s not even a term in their language for that sort of thing. Anyway, we can call things whatever we want, just so we understand what the reality is- … and what we are using those terms to mean. I think that’s the important thing. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So then let’s look at words which are both fascinating, monarchic republic.
So then let’s look at words which are both fascinating, monarchic republic.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right.
Right.
Lex Fridman
Why is that a good term for the East Roman Empire?
Why is that a good term for the East Roman Empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
Because they understood it very much to be a polity in the Roman sense of a res publica that was governed by a regime that was monarchical.
Because they understood it very much to be a polity in the Roman sense of a res publica that was governed by a regime that was monarchical.
Lex Fridman
So those two elements, there’s an emperor dude at the top, and it functioned politically like a republic.
So those two elements, there’s an emperor dude at the top, and it functioned politically like a republic.
Anthony Kaldellis
Also, the emperor was expected to be working for the republic. Like, they keep saying this. So, like, this was their conception. You don’t find it, for example, in other kinds of dynastic empires, the ones that don’t emerge from within the context of an ancient republic. So this is another reason why I find this civilization so fascinating, right? I mean, we mentioned the Greek and the Roman and the Christian elements that are kind of jostling together. This is fascinating to me in part because it’s this weird combination of monarchical power, like in terms of executive institutions- … and a republican kind of baseline ideology on which it operates. Yeah, and they, they sometimes come to a head.
Also, the emperor was expected to be working for the republic. Like, they keep saying this. So, like, this was their conception. You don’t find it, for example, in other kinds of dynastic empires, the ones that don’t emerge from within the context of an ancient republic. So this is another reason why I find this civilization so fascinating, right? I mean, we mentioned the Greek and the Roman and the Christian elements that are kind of jostling together. This is fascinating to me in part because it’s this weird combination of monarchical power, like in terms of executive institutions- … and a republican kind of baseline ideology on which it operates. Yeah, and they, they sometimes come to a head.
Lex Fridman
Is there at all a degree to which it’s a military dictatorship? Because especially when it’s the general in the emperor’s seat, yes, there’s a republic, yes, there’s political discussion, but the army has a lot of power. So to what degree is it a military dictatorship, as is sometimes talked about when you talk about the Roman Empire?
Is there at all a degree to which it’s a military dictatorship? Because especially when it’s the general in the emperor’s seat, yes, there’s a republic, yes, there’s political discussion, but the army has a lot of power. So to what degree is it a military dictatorship, as is sometimes talked about when you talk about the Roman Empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, so Augustus’ position, for example, and that of his successors is talked about as a military dictatorship. In other words, when push comes to shove- … and the basis of political power is the army, then I suppose it’s legitimate for historians to talk about a military dictatorship. But here’s why I don’t think the Eastern Roman Empire is a military dictatorship. Even though, again, the emperors control the armies and the armies themselves will often have a say in who becomes emperor, like through the civil wars that we mentioned. Okay. The reason why I don’t think it’s a military dictatorship is because they almost never, very, very, very rarely use the army as an instrument of social control.
Yeah, so Augustus’ position, for example, and that of his successors is talked about as a military dictatorship. In other words, when push comes to shove- … and the basis of political power is the army, then I suppose it’s legitimate for historians to talk about a military dictatorship. But here’s why I don’t think the Eastern Roman Empire is a military dictatorship. Even though, again, the emperors control the armies and the armies themselves will often have a say in who becomes emperor, like through the civil wars that we mentioned. Okay. The reason why I don’t think it’s a military dictatorship is because they almost never, very, very, very rarely use the army as an instrument of social control.
Lex Fridman
Isn’t that strange to you? Because you see that being done through so much of human history.
Isn’t that strange to you? Because you see that being done through so much of human history.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah.
Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And the fact they don’t resort to that, I mean, they, for 1,000 years, that’s just not a thing.
And the fact they don’t resort to that, I mean, they, for 1,000 years, that’s just not a thing.
Anthony Kaldellis
As a way of keeping down the population, you just don’t see it. And part of the reason for that is I don’t think the population needs to be kept down. Like, this gets back to the consensus that we were talking about. The understanding is that the army is there to protect the Roman people. And is often recruited among them. And for most of the period that I study, lives among them. So when the emperors have to call up the army, they’re literally calling up soldiers from local villages.
As a way of keeping down the population, you just don’t see it. And part of the reason for that is I don’t think the population needs to be kept down. Like, this gets back to the consensus that we were talking about. The understanding is that the army is there to protect the Roman people. And is often recruited among them. And for most of the period that I study, lives among them. So when the emperors have to call up the army, they’re literally calling up soldiers from local villages.
Lex Fridman
It’s just incredible that this worked. I guess the civil war thing is, as a mechanism, is effective. ‘Cause you just, throughout human history, I mean, you look at even recent history, it’s just a very common thing for an authoritarian figure to use the army to suppress people.
It’s just incredible that this worked. I guess the civil war thing is, as a mechanism, is effective. ‘Cause you just, throughout human history, I mean, you look at even recent history, it’s just a very common thing for an authoritarian figure to use the army to suppress people.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, but isn’t that dangerous, though? Look at how many modern regimes tried to use their own armies against their people who are in a moment of rising up.
Yeah, but isn’t that dangerous, though? Look at how many modern regimes tried to use their own armies against their people who are in a moment of rising up.
Lex Fridman
It doesn’t last.
It doesn’t last.
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, it’s a risk. Like the Arab Spring. Especially in Egypt. And you could, you could tell for those three weeks that Mubarak was trying to decide whether he could actually count on the army to suppress the protesters or not, because you never know what they’re going to do if you ask them to fire on a civilian population. It can backfire on you badly. So I think that is a very dangerous force to use, and even in the context of modern regimes, can result in a regime change.
Well, it’s a risk. Like the Arab Spring. Especially in Egypt. And you could, you could tell for those three weeks that Mubarak was trying to decide whether he could actually count on the army to suppress the protesters or not, because you never know what they’re going to do if you ask them to fire on a civilian population. It can backfire on you badly. So I think that is a very dangerous force to use, and even in the context of modern regimes, can result in a regime change.
Lex Fridman
Absolutely, and there’s huge wisdom behind that, but, you know, leaders are not always wise, often not wise. And often maybe they start out wise, but power corrupts them over time, and so the fact that this does not happen just over and over and over and over- … in the East Roman Empire is, is, there’s just signal there that’s fascinating. And I mean, this goes to the book that you want to be working on— … About why the thing lasts. So…
Absolutely, and there’s huge wisdom behind that, but, you know, leaders are not always wise, often not wise. And often maybe they start out wise, but power corrupts them over time, and so the fact that this does not happen just over and over and over and over- … in the East Roman Empire is, is, there’s just signal there that’s fascinating. And I mean, this goes to the book that you want to be working on— … About why the thing lasts. So…
Anthony Kaldellis
There’s one emperor who does do that, and that’s Justinian.
There’s one emperor who does do that, and that’s Justinian.
Emperor Justinian and wars of conquest
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. Yeah, he gets wild. So let’s talk about Justinian. We have to. We have to talk about Justinian. One of the most impactful Roman emperors in history started as a peasant, and rose in power to become emperor. He fought wars of conquest and was very consequential and impactful. So who was he?
Mm-hmm. Yeah, he gets wild. So let’s talk about Justinian. We have to. We have to talk about Justinian. One of the most impactful Roman emperors in history started as a peasant, and rose in power to become emperor. He fought wars of conquest and was very consequential and impactful. So who was he?
Anthony Kaldellis
All right. So Justinian was the emperor from 527 to 565, so quite a long reign. He was the nephew of the previous emperor, Justin I, who was an older man, ruled for just under a decade before Justinian. And both of them came from small, poor agricultural communities in the western Balkans.
All right. So Justinian was the emperor from 527 to 565, so quite a long reign. He was the nephew of the previous emperor, Justin I, who was an older man, ruled for just under a decade before Justinian. And both of them came from small, poor agricultural communities in the western Balkans.
Lex Fridman
We should say that Justin I ended up in your worst 10 emperors list.
We should say that Justin I ended up in your worst 10 emperors list.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, for one decision. He’s not the worst of the worst, but he made a very, very bad call when it came to church policy, tore the church apart. He shouldn’t have done that, in my view. But by the way, Justinian’s an immensely complicated figure. I found it impossible to decide, first of all, whether to put him on the best emperors or the worst emperors.
Yeah, for one decision. He’s not the worst of the worst, but he made a very, very bad call when it came to church policy, tore the church apart. He shouldn’t have done that, in my view. But by the way, Justinian’s an immensely complicated figure. I found it impossible to decide, first of all, whether to put him on the best emperors or the worst emperors.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, you—I mean, you’re being spicy, yeah.
Yeah, you—I mean, you’re being spicy, yeah.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, yeah. You have to be provocative about these things. And I thought omitting those two would be that, and it was. So, and here we are talking about it.
Yeah, yeah. You have to be provocative about these things. And I thought omitting those two would be that, and it was. So, and here we are talking about it.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah, exactly. The controversy.
Yeah, yeah, exactly. The controversy.
Anthony Kaldellis
And through all the systems of social mobility that we’ve been talking about, Justin ended up emperor. Because of his military background, he just rose through the ranks. He was in the right place at the right time, became emperor, and then he gradually positioned his nephew, Justinian, whose background we do not know. Literally, we do not know anything that Justinian did before the age of something like 38 when he appears on the historical record. Same background. We know where he came from, but we don’t know what he was doing, although, like, was he an active soldier for decades? We don’t know. Probably not. He comes equipped with, like, a knowledge of something like Roman law and some Christian theology. That seems to be, like, what he knew.
And through all the systems of social mobility that we’ve been talking about, Justin ended up emperor. Because of his military background, he just rose through the ranks. He was in the right place at the right time, became emperor, and then he gradually positioned his nephew, Justinian, whose background we do not know. Literally, we do not know anything that Justinian did before the age of something like 38 when he appears on the historical record. Same background. We know where he came from, but we don’t know what he was doing, although, like, was he an active soldier for decades? We don’t know. Probably not. He comes equipped with, like, a knowledge of something like Roman law and some Christian theology. That seems to be, like, what he knew.
Anthony Kaldellis
And then Justin positions him to become his successor eventually, kind of reluctantly, but he does. Justinian also marries Theodora, who’s a woman who’s a former sex worker, which is a controversial choice. By this point, he’s a senator and is holding all of these top generalships, and then he becomes emperor.
And then Justin positions him to become his successor eventually, kind of reluctantly, but he does. Justinian also marries Theodora, who’s a woman who’s a former sex worker, which is a controversial choice. By this point, he’s a senator and is holding all of these top generalships, and then he becomes emperor.
Lex Fridman
She was also very influential, yes?
She was also very influential, yes?
Anthony Kaldellis
Very powerful, yes.
Very powerful, yes.
Lex Fridman
Very powerful.
Very powerful.
Anthony Kaldellis
Under his, yeah, during his reign. So the interesting thing about Justinian’s choice of, let’s say, associates, and that includes his wife, is that he seems to have just gone for people he thought were talented- … or that would be good for him as a ruler, rather than their social class or prestige. And so he accumulates around him quite a motley group of odd, sometimes like these kinds of disreputable people. But they did what he wanted them to, and they were—they—with lasting consequences for world history. So he has an eye for talent, and he doesn’t hesitate to pick people that others might look down on if he thought they could get the job done.
Under his, yeah, during his reign. So the interesting thing about Justinian’s choice of, let’s say, associates, and that includes his wife, is that he seems to have just gone for people he thought were talented- … or that would be good for him as a ruler, rather than their social class or prestige. And so he accumulates around him quite a motley group of odd, sometimes like these kinds of disreputable people. But they did what he wanted them to, and they were—they—with lasting consequences for world history. So he has an eye for talent, and he doesn’t hesitate to pick people that others might look down on if he thought they could get the job done.
Anthony Kaldellis
And these are some of the attributes that enable him to be as successful as he was. So that’s his background. He’s a Latin speaker primarily, but he knows Greek, too.
And these are some of the attributes that enable him to be as successful as he was. So that’s his background. He’s a Latin speaker primarily, but he knows Greek, too.
Lex Fridman
So here he is, and he, but he had, so like I mentioned, the wars of conquests. He also overhauled the Roman law.
So here he is, and he, but he had, so like I mentioned, the wars of conquests. He also overhauled the Roman law.
Anthony Kaldellis
He appoints a committee- … as one does— … to just take the whole of Roman law and condense it into what today we call the Corpus Juris Civilis, which is the body of Roman civil law. And this was a massive work of codification, and it is our main source for Roman law. Like overwhelmingly, what we call Roman law is what Justinian’s committee, and specifically this character called Tribonian, who was a very accomplished jurist, said it was.
He appoints a committee- … as one does— … to just take the whole of Roman law and condense it into what today we call the Corpus Juris Civilis, which is the body of Roman civil law. And this was a massive work of codification, and it is our main source for Roman law. Like overwhelmingly, what we call Roman law is what Justinian’s committee, and specifically this character called Tribonian, who was a very accomplished jurist, said it was.
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. And that, did that persist through time? Did that last?
Mm-hmm. And that, did that persist through time? Did that last?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, still to this day. When you study Roman law, you’re studying Tribonian’s committee.
Yes, still to this day. When you study Roman law, you’re studying Tribonian’s committee.
Lex Fridman
And so in terms of our modern society, how much of impact did that have, this codification, this stable law that ran the East Roman Empire?
And so in terms of our modern society, how much of impact did that have, this codification, this stable law that ran the East Roman Empire?
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, I mean, Roman legal concepts pervade everything from philosophy to political thought to actual Roman legal practice. I mean, depends on what country you’re in. So in many of the countries of Europe, it is the, you know, current law. And it is to some degree. I mean, I’m exaggerating. But legal scholars have to study Roman law. Even law students have to do that. Not so much in countries like the United States or Britain, which have the so-called common law system. But ideas in Roman law about, for example, property, right, ownership, things like this, these were hugely important in formulating ideas, for example, about sovereignty in political thought. Yeah, it’s one of the most important and influential acts of committee work ever done in Constantinople.
Well, I mean, Roman legal concepts pervade everything from philosophy to political thought to actual Roman legal practice. I mean, depends on what country you’re in. So in many of the countries of Europe, it is the, you know, current law. And it is to some degree. I mean, I’m exaggerating. But legal scholars have to study Roman law. Even law students have to do that. Not so much in countries like the United States or Britain, which have the so-called common law system. But ideas in Roman law about, for example, property, right, ownership, things like this, these were hugely important in formulating ideas, for example, about sovereignty in political thought. Yeah, it’s one of the most important and influential acts of committee work ever done in Constantinople.
Lex Fridman
So going to Perplexity here and looking at some aspects of the Justinian’s laws, they include a systematic structure of private law, persons, things, actions, strong protection of property and contracts, detailed family and inheritance rules, and a hierarchical status-based view of persons. These elements became the template for later civil law systems. And some overall structures, tripartite schema, law organized around personae, legal subjects, things, and procedural actions. Essentially who, what, and how of- … private law. And it goes on. I mean, a lot of the things I’m reading here really sounds like what we think of as law. Marriage.
So going to Perplexity here and looking at some aspects of the Justinian’s laws, they include a systematic structure of private law, persons, things, actions, strong protection of property and contracts, detailed family and inheritance rules, and a hierarchical status-based view of persons. These elements became the template for later civil law systems. And some overall structures, tripartite schema, law organized around personae, legal subjects, things, and procedural actions. Essentially who, what, and how of- … private law. And it goes on. I mean, a lot of the things I’m reading here really sounds like what we think of as law. Marriage.
Anthony Kaldellis
Look, most of it’s about property.
Look, most of it’s about property.
Lex Fridman
Marriage is a legal status. Lawful matrimony required conformity to rules about age, citizenship, and cognatum or prohibited degrees, incest rules, adoption relations, et cetera. All that kind of stuff.
Marriage is a legal status. Lawful matrimony required conformity to rules about age, citizenship, and cognatum or prohibited degrees, incest rules, adoption relations, et cetera. All that kind of stuff.
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, yes. Who you can marry, who not.
Oh, yes. Who you can marry, who not.
Lex Fridman
What was their view of homosexuality?
What was their view of homosexuality?
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, I mean, Justinian thought it caused earthquakes.
Well, I mean, Justinian thought it caused earthquakes.
Lex Fridman
Oh, did it?
Oh, did it?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Did it?
Did it?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
Wow. That’s fascinating.
Wow. That’s fascinating.
Anthony Kaldellis
No, for him, no, for… So for Christian emperors or Christian authorities, this is a reprehensible, immoral act. Depending, it could be punished. Justinian did try to punish it pretty brutally. I mean, ultimately lethally. However, this gets really tricky here because what counts as a homosexual act is not clear to everybody, right? And in addition to which, there… This is a society that generally will not go after let’s say scandals or deviance or however you wanna call it, like systematically. This is not like some– There’s no inquisition.
No, for him, no, for… So for Christian emperors or Christian authorities, this is a reprehensible, immoral act. Depending, it could be punished. Justinian did try to punish it pretty brutally. I mean, ultimately lethally. However, this gets really tricky here because what counts as a homosexual act is not clear to everybody, right? And in addition to which, there… This is a society that generally will not go after let’s say scandals or deviance or however you wanna call it, like systematically. This is not like some– There’s no inquisition.
Anthony Kaldellis
There’s no social police. If there’s some sort of scandal and this comes out, then it’s a problem. But they’re not actively going to track down, hunt down, monitor, survey, interrogate people about their sex lives. I mean, it is in a way, despite having views that we may not agree with about sexuality, it was generally humane in the way of just kind of leaving people alone.
There’s no social police. If there’s some sort of scandal and this comes out, then it’s a problem. But they’re not actively going to track down, hunt down, monitor, survey, interrogate people about their sex lives. I mean, it is in a way, despite having views that we may not agree with about sexuality, it was generally humane in the way of just kind of leaving people alone.
Lex Fridman
I mean, that said, there’s some… I’m just on Perplexity, looked up Justinian Roman law view of sexuality. They’re pretty harsh on, like, adultery and just getting freaky with it.
I mean, that said, there’s some… I’m just on Perplexity, looked up Justinian Roman law view of sexuality. They’re pretty harsh on, like, adultery and just getting freaky with it.
Anthony Kaldellis
No, Justinian was more zealous in this matter, definitely.
No, Justinian was more zealous in this matter, definitely.
Lex Fridman
Even though he married a sex worker.
Even though he married a sex worker.
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, sex work wasn’t illegal.
Well, sex work wasn’t illegal.
Lex Fridman
Right, but it’s a bit spicy.
Right, but it’s a bit spicy.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. And in fact, it was illegal for a senator to marry someone from such a disreputable profession. And he got his uncle to pass a law changing that rule … so that he could.
Yes. And in fact, it was illegal for a senator to marry someone from such a disreputable profession. And he got his uncle to pass a law changing that rule … so that he could.
Lex Fridman
Well. Love knows no bounds.
Well. Love knows no bounds.
Anthony Kaldellis
Actually, Justinian kind of says that in one of his laws.
Actually, Justinian kind of says that in one of his laws.
Lex Fridman
Oh, wow.
Oh, wow.
Anthony Kaldellis
No, he clearly loved her. There’s no question.
No, he clearly loved her. There’s no question.
Lex Fridman
This is actual love. I mean, this, you have to like this guy. Starts as a peasant, surrounded himself by all kinds of weirdos just because they were good at what they did, and it doesn’t really matter, class or not.
This is actual love. I mean, this, you have to like this guy. Starts as a peasant, surrounded himself by all kinds of weirdos just because they were good at what they did, and it doesn’t really matter, class or not.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, but there’s a lot to be said against him, too. I like so much.
Yes, but there’s a lot to be said against him, too. I like so much.
Lex Fridman
Let’s get into it. So he did launch wars of conquest. What was his view of war and conquest, and maybe what are the things we should mention in terms of expansionary wars?
Let’s get into it. So he did launch wars of conquest. What was his view of war and conquest, and maybe what are the things we should mention in terms of expansionary wars?
Anthony Kaldellis
He thought he was authorized by God to reconquer the lost provinces of the Western Roman Empire, and when he did so, that was proof that God favored him. And he was generally opportunistic about it and for the most part, kind of successful in that he intervened in the most critical moments of the histories of these barbarian, you know, kingdoms in the West, and exploited their weaknesses and took them over. Now, in the process, many of these provinces were ravaged by war—Italy for decades. He overstretched his resources, leaving his successors with a much more dangerous situation to defend. And he disbanded certain armies that were meant to protect Constantinople, sent them to Italy, for example. This weakened the home front.
He thought he was authorized by God to reconquer the lost provinces of the Western Roman Empire, and when he did so, that was proof that God favored him. And he was generally opportunistic about it and for the most part, kind of successful in that he intervened in the most critical moments of the histories of these barbarian, you know, kingdoms in the West, and exploited their weaknesses and took them over. Now, in the process, many of these provinces were ravaged by war—Italy for decades. He overstretched his resources, leaving his successors with a much more dangerous situation to defend. And he disbanded certain armies that were meant to protect Constantinople, sent them to Italy, for example. This weakened the home front.
Anthony Kaldellis
So he left a very difficult legacy for his successors in that way. Plus, some of the provinces that he conquered were so—like Italy, I don’t think it could even pay for itself after a certain point. So I’m not sure that some of those decisions were the best ones. North Africa, yeah, probably that paid off. Italy and southern Spain, not so sure.
So he left a very difficult legacy for his successors in that way. Plus, some of the provinces that he conquered were so—like Italy, I don’t think it could even pay for itself after a certain point. So I’m not sure that some of those decisions were the best ones. North Africa, yeah, probably that paid off. Italy and southern Spain, not so sure.
Lex Fridman
So that’s one of the big criticisms is even though there was conquest, it was overextended, and- … those lands were not economically stable.
So that’s one of the big criticisms is even though there was conquest, it was overextended, and- … those lands were not economically stable.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, and-
Yeah, and-
Lex Fridman
Broke. AKA.
Broke. AKA.
Anthony Kaldellis
Conquest is not just good, you know, in itself. I mean, this is… I know that some rulers in history are called the Great simply because they conquered something. But that’s, no, that’s not enough. I mean, I know that rulers do this, but if we’re to compare them to each other, we should at least expect that they have a plan or that it works out well in the end, let’s say, and I don’t think that many of these did.
Conquest is not just good, you know, in itself. I mean, this is… I know that some rulers in history are called the Great simply because they conquered something. But that’s, no, that’s not enough. I mean, I know that rulers do this, but if we’re to compare them to each other, we should at least expect that they have a plan or that it works out well in the end, let’s say, and I don’t think that many of these did.
Lex Fridman
I should say that as far as historians go, I think you don’t give too many points on the conquest front.
I should say that as far as historians go, I think you don’t give too many points on the conquest front.
Anthony Kaldellis
Personally, I?
Personally, I?
Lex Fridman
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
Anthony Kaldellis
No, I don’t.
No, I don’t.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, so your value comes from is a leader implementing lasting change, like a stable-
Yeah, so your value comes from is a leader implementing lasting change, like a stable-
Anthony Kaldellis
Was he good for his subjects? Were they living better because of him than otherwise?
Was he good for his subjects? Were they living better because of him than otherwise?
Lex Fridman
And also, like, longer, like, the long-term nature of it, not just- … not just, like, a temporary thing.
And also, like, longer, like, the long-term nature of it, not just- … not just, like, a temporary thing.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right. Are you strengthening institutions that benefit your subjects? That. And some he did, some not. So look, in order to send those armies west to make the conquests, he stripped the east of armies, so the Persians could just march in and, like, destroyed Antioch. Like, that’s a major strategic failure, and I don’t think you get a pass for conquering North Africa by surrendering Syria.
Right. Are you strengthening institutions that benefit your subjects? That. And some he did, some not. So look, in order to send those armies west to make the conquests, he stripped the east of armies, so the Persians could just march in and, like, destroyed Antioch. Like, that’s a major strategic failure, and I don’t think you get a pass for conquering North Africa by surrendering Syria.
Lex Fridman
He did rebuild Constantinople and reconstructed the Hagia Sophia.
He did rebuild Constantinople and reconstructed the Hagia Sophia.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, after he and his soldiers set fire to it. Yes. In the Nika insurrection. So this is when the people of the capital rise up against him, and there’s, like, about 10 days of street fighting, and he brings in some armies, and eventually he orders his armies to slaughter the protesters, leaving more than 30,000 dead. Like, this is an enormous number. And a lot of Constantinople burned in the process, and yeah, he rebuilt it. So his building is considered one of his great points. He built Hagia Sophia, for example, which is a magnificent church, like, hands down. It’s just a fascinating monument to study, too. And yeah, that was, that was him, too.
Yes, after he and his soldiers set fire to it. Yes. In the Nika insurrection. So this is when the people of the capital rise up against him, and there’s, like, about 10 days of street fighting, and he brings in some armies, and eventually he orders his armies to slaughter the protesters, leaving more than 30,000 dead. Like, this is an enormous number. And a lot of Constantinople burned in the process, and yeah, he rebuilt it. So his building is considered one of his great points. He built Hagia Sophia, for example, which is a magnificent church, like, hands down. It’s just a fascinating monument to study, too. And yeah, that was, that was him, too.
Anthony Kaldellis
I’m trying to give you a sense here that the good and the bad are mixed in such equal measure that, like Buridan’s ass, I can’t decide which- … which bale of hay to put him on.
I’m trying to give you a sense here that the good and the bad are mixed in such equal measure that, like Buridan’s ass, I can’t decide which- … which bale of hay to put him on.
Lex Fridman
But there’s a grand scale to the good and the bad.
But there’s a grand scale to the good and the bad.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, yes.
Yes, yes.
Lex Fridman
For many people, that’s what makes for a, uh-
For many people, that’s what makes for a, uh-
Anthony Kaldellis
Exactly
Exactly
Lex Fridman
… top 10 emperor list. What about the plague?
… top 10 emperor list. What about the plague?
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, he wasn’t responsible for that at least.
Well, he wasn’t responsible for that at least.
Lex Fridman
The plague of Justinian- … AKA 541 AD. So some historians claim that it killed half the population and ruined the empire. You are skeptical on this view.
The plague of Justinian- … AKA 541 AD. So some historians claim that it killed half the population and ruined the empire. You are skeptical on this view.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. So this is a bubonic plague. Which lasts more or less for two centuries. It comes and it goes, and it’s kind of endemic to large parts of the world. 541 is when it starts to break out in the empire, in Constantinople and other cities, and it spreads. There’s been a lot of debate about this recently because now we’ve actually isolated the pathogen. It’s Yersinia pestis. Like, we know this. Just as of, like, a generation ago, this was just guesswork. But now there’s all of this new, like, laboratory science work that’s come in to fill in some of the gaps in history.
Yes. So this is a bubonic plague. Which lasts more or less for two centuries. It comes and it goes, and it’s kind of endemic to large parts of the world. 541 is when it starts to break out in the empire, in Constantinople and other cities, and it spreads. There’s been a lot of debate about this recently because now we’ve actually isolated the pathogen. It’s Yersinia pestis. Like, we know this. Just as of, like, a generation ago, this was just guesswork. But now there’s all of this new, like, laboratory science work that’s come in to fill in some of the gaps in history.
Lex Fridman
That’s so cool.
That’s so cool.
Anthony Kaldellis
It is. It is. There are lots of discussions about that. And so the study of diseases and virology have just become much more important lately. It still doesn’t tell you, however, like mortality rates and historical impact. Like, for that, you still need standard old-fashioned non-laboratory historical work. And there’s a debate about the impact of this plague. It’s ongoing, I should say that. And some scholars argue for a kind of maximalist position of 50%. I think that would have brought this society to a halt. Just logistically speaking. And so I believe in a much more moderate impact.
It is. It is. There are lots of discussions about that. And so the study of diseases and virology have just become much more important lately. It still doesn’t tell you, however, like mortality rates and historical impact. Like, for that, you still need standard old-fashioned non-laboratory historical work. And there’s a debate about the impact of this plague. It’s ongoing, I should say that. And some scholars argue for a kind of maximalist position of 50%. I think that would have brought this society to a halt. Just logistically speaking. And so I believe in a much more moderate impact.
Lex Fridman
And the real impact is what? The tax base shrinks?
And the real impact is what? The tax base shrinks?
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh. Oh, yeah. The tax base would shrink instantly. You wouldn’t be able to recruit armies. You know, there would be massive social dislocation. Like what happens in the Black Death in Europe in the 14th century. Like, we have very good records for what happened to those societies, and basically everything that they were doing stopped for a few years until they sort of tried to put things back together again. This does not happen in the 6th century. In fact, Justinian is at that time waging war on something like four or five different fronts. If you read the narratives of those wars, there’s no pause. There’s no impact from the plague on the conduct of those wars. They just continue on.
Oh. Oh, yeah. The tax base would shrink instantly. You wouldn’t be able to recruit armies. You know, there would be massive social dislocation. Like what happens in the Black Death in Europe in the 14th century. Like, we have very good records for what happened to those societies, and basically everything that they were doing stopped for a few years until they sort of tried to put things back together again. This does not happen in the 6th century. In fact, Justinian is at that time waging war on something like four or five different fronts. If you read the narratives of those wars, there’s no pause. There’s no impact from the plague on the conduct of those wars. They just continue on.
Anthony Kaldellis
Taxation continues. The courts continue. Like, you just don’t see it in the narrative, and so I think that there’s a much less impact than, certainly than 50%, yeah.
Taxation continues. The courts continue. Like, you just don’t see it in the narrative, and so I think that there’s a much less impact than, certainly than 50%, yeah.
Lex Fridman
So this sets the stage for a tumultuous 7th century.
So this sets the stage for a tumultuous 7th century.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, you could call it that. Yes.
Yeah, you could call it that. Yes.
Lex Fridman
So what is the legacy of Justinian in terms of how he left the empire leading into the 7th century?
So what is the legacy of Justinian in terms of how he left the empire leading into the 7th century?
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, he left it overextended, so his successors had to deal with many more problems along many more fronts with fewer military forces concentrated in what we might call the homeland of the Eastern Roman Empire. And so that made the center vulnerable too, and so you start to get raids into the Balkans and, you know, it enters a kind of vicious cycle again. Now, not all of this was Justinian’s fault. I mean, the plague definitely had some impact. But I wouldn’t blame everything on his successors, as is sometimes done, like they mishandled the situation. He… Yeah, he left them a very difficult situation to deal with.
Well, he left it overextended, so his successors had to deal with many more problems along many more fronts with fewer military forces concentrated in what we might call the homeland of the Eastern Roman Empire. And so that made the center vulnerable too, and so you start to get raids into the Balkans and, you know, it enters a kind of vicious cycle again. Now, not all of this was Justinian’s fault. I mean, the plague definitely had some impact. But I wouldn’t blame everything on his successors, as is sometimes done, like they mishandled the situation. He… Yeah, he left them a very difficult situation to deal with.
The Arab conquests
Lex Fridman
So speaking of which, let’s talk about Heraclius. He didn’t make, he didn’t make your list either, which is a shocker for a lot of people. Perhaps you can describe the nuance of that, but he took over the Roman Empire on the verge of extinction. Persians at the gates, treasury empty. So maybe first tell the full saga of the Roman-Persian War that threatened the empire’s existence.
So speaking of which, let’s talk about Heraclius. He didn’t make, he didn’t make your list either, which is a shocker for a lot of people. Perhaps you can describe the nuance of that, but he took over the Roman Empire on the verge of extinction. Persians at the gates, treasury empty. So maybe first tell the full saga of the Roman-Persian War that threatened the empire’s existence.
Anthony Kaldellis
Sure. Well, he wasn’t entirely, you know, free of blame for the situation that he inherited. He was, he was in part responsible for it. So he doesn’t get a pass on that. So Heraclius is basically a rebel and a usurper. So for various reasons Rome and Persia are at war starting around 602. And the Persian shah at this time, Khosrow II, has basically decided on a policy of conquest, not just raiding. Like, I’m gonna go in and take your people, some cattle, and some statues, and take them to, you know, Mesopotamia. He starts what… I mean, I think there’s some evolution in his thinking and his planning about this, but pretty soon during the 600 and the aughts, he realizes that there’s potential for actual permanent territorial gain here, and his armies start moving in.
Sure. Well, he wasn’t entirely, you know, free of blame for the situation that he inherited. He was, he was in part responsible for it. So he doesn’t get a pass on that. So Heraclius is basically a rebel and a usurper. So for various reasons Rome and Persia are at war starting around 602. And the Persian shah at this time, Khosrow II, has basically decided on a policy of conquest, not just raiding. Like, I’m gonna go in and take your people, some cattle, and some statues, and take them to, you know, Mesopotamia. He starts what… I mean, I think there’s some evolution in his thinking and his planning about this, but pretty soon during the 600 and the aughts, he realizes that there’s potential for actual permanent territorial gain here, and his armies start moving in.
Anthony Kaldellis
And the Roman Emperor is this guy called Phocas, who is himself a usurper, a military background, and he now faces a rebellion by Heraclius, whose base is in North Africa at this time, like around Carthage. And they have a civil war for three years, 608 to 610.
And the Roman Emperor is this guy called Phocas, who is himself a usurper, a military background, and he now faces a rebellion by Heraclius, whose base is in North Africa at this time, like around Carthage. And they have a civil war for three years, 608 to 610.
Anthony Kaldellis
That civil war that Heraclius initiates causes a diversion of Roman armies to the civil war away from the Persian front. So it’s a massive gift to the Persians. Plus, a lot of the fighting takes place in Egypt, and Egypt was a province that had up until that point not really been harmed by war. Now it is, right? So Heraclius’s forces, he’s not in Egypt, but his backers are fighting a civil war in Egypt, so that province is now, you know, ravaged in part. The Persians make tremendous gains in the east. Heraclius heads straight for Constantinople during all of this, and to make a long story short, he manages to take Constantinople, execute Phocas, and become emperor, right? But now he’s facing a problem that’s much worse than it was before he started the rebellion.
That civil war that Heraclius initiates causes a diversion of Roman armies to the civil war away from the Persian front. So it’s a massive gift to the Persians. Plus, a lot of the fighting takes place in Egypt, and Egypt was a province that had up until that point not really been harmed by war. Now it is, right? So Heraclius’s forces, he’s not in Egypt, but his backers are fighting a civil war in Egypt, so that province is now, you know, ravaged in part. The Persians make tremendous gains in the east. Heraclius heads straight for Constantinople during all of this, and to make a long story short, he manages to take Constantinople, execute Phocas, and become emperor, right? But now he’s facing a problem that’s much worse than it was before he started the rebellion.
Anthony Kaldellis
The reason why Heraclius is sort of lionized in some… Well, actually, there’s a very long tradition of doing this, which goes back to the Middle Ages. In the Western Middle Ages, Heraclius was sometimes considered, like, the first crusader.
The reason why Heraclius is sort of lionized in some… Well, actually, there’s a very long tradition of doing this, which goes back to the Middle Ages. In the Western Middle Ages, Heraclius was sometimes considered, like, the first crusader.
Lex Fridman
Oh, interesting.
Oh, interesting.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, yeah. So there’s all this medieval literature about Heraclius as being a proto-crusader type and all that for reconquering, like, Jerusalem from the Persians and restoring the True Cross and all that. So he had this kind of aura, and I think his modern admirers are basically just continuing… I mean, they might not know it, but they’re kind of continuing this very, very long tradition of treating Heraclius as this heroic holy warrior. Anyway, from my standpoint, it’s a complete wash. In other words, yes, he does beat the Persians and he gets, like, in my view, full credit for that, though he did it with, I think, the help of some Turkish allies from Central Asia. These were, I think, the major component of his success at the very end.
Yeah, yeah. So there’s all this medieval literature about Heraclius as being a proto-crusader type and all that for reconquering, like, Jerusalem from the Persians and restoring the True Cross and all that. So he had this kind of aura, and I think his modern admirers are basically just continuing… I mean, they might not know it, but they’re kind of continuing this very, very long tradition of treating Heraclius as this heroic holy warrior. Anyway, from my standpoint, it’s a complete wash. In other words, yes, he does beat the Persians and he gets, like, in my view, full credit for that, though he did it with, I think, the help of some Turkish allies from Central Asia. These were, I think, the major component of his success at the very end.
Anthony Kaldellis
But no, no. So he held the Persians off and ultimately defeated them, yes. And then he loses everything to the Arabs.
But no, no. So he held the Persians off and ultimately defeated them, yes. And then he loses everything to the Arabs.
Lex Fridman
So the Arab conquests are 630s and 640s, but the Persian War is 602 to 628.
So the Arab conquests are 630s and 640s, but the Persian War is 602 to 628.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
So what can be said about this what seems to be a pretty costly war, I guess, for the Persians?
So what can be said about this what seems to be a pretty costly war, I guess, for the Persians?
Anthony Kaldellis
So the war was costly initially only for the Romans. The eastern provinces were conquered by Persia. That means Syria, Palestine, Egypt. So that’s a loss. You lose all that revenue, and then they start raiding into Asia Minor.
So the war was costly initially only for the Romans. The eastern provinces were conquered by Persia. That means Syria, Palestine, Egypt. So that’s a loss. You lose all that revenue, and then they start raiding into Asia Minor.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Anthony Kaldellis
By the way, this is exactly what the Arabs would do, you know, just a couple decades later. They would conquer Syria, Palestine, Egypt, and they would start raiding into Asia Minor. So almost like this phase of East Roman history begins already during the Persian invasion. It’s just a kind of a prelude. It was, in fact, the Arabs that would do that for the next few centuries. So Heraclius, it takes him a very long time to get organized, in fact, something like 15 years, and it’s not entirely clear, like, what he’s doing all this time. But he ultimately manages to defeat the Persians by waging these really spectacular, weird campaigns in the East. He decides to strike into the Persian heartland, as it were. Well, first in the Caucasus region, and then he goes into Mesopotamia.
By the way, this is exactly what the Arabs would do, you know, just a couple decades later. They would conquer Syria, Palestine, Egypt, and they would start raiding into Asia Minor. So almost like this phase of East Roman history begins already during the Persian invasion. It’s just a kind of a prelude. It was, in fact, the Arabs that would do that for the next few centuries. So Heraclius, it takes him a very long time to get organized, in fact, something like 15 years, and it’s not entirely clear, like, what he’s doing all this time. But he ultimately manages to defeat the Persians by waging these really spectacular, weird campaigns in the East. He decides to strike into the Persian heartland, as it were. Well, first in the Caucasus region, and then he goes into Mesopotamia.
Anthony Kaldellis
So not to try to defeat their armies that are rampaging around Asia Minor or even besieging his capital in 626. The Persians and the Avars, this people from… This nomadic warrior group that settled in roughly modern Hungary, they’re besieging Constantinople. Heraclius doesn’t even go. And he’s just kind of preparing his armies in the East, and he strikes the Persians right where it hurts, and this now begins to degrade the Persian heartland and their infrastructure because remember, both of these empires are gonna be in shambles by the time the Arabs come along, and this is what enables the Arabs to conquer them so quickly. I mean, they’ve destroyed each other in these wars.
So not to try to defeat their armies that are rampaging around Asia Minor or even besieging his capital in 626. The Persians and the Avars, this people from… This nomadic warrior group that settled in roughly modern Hungary, they’re besieging Constantinople. Heraclius doesn’t even go. And he’s just kind of preparing his armies in the East, and he strikes the Persians right where it hurts, and this now begins to degrade the Persian heartland and their infrastructure because remember, both of these empires are gonna be in shambles by the time the Arabs come along, and this is what enables the Arabs to conquer them so quickly. I mean, they’ve destroyed each other in these wars.
Anthony Kaldellis
And eventually Heraclius calls in his Turkish allies, and they go on a field trip through Mesopotamia, and this causes a coup in Persia, and Khosrow is killed.
And eventually Heraclius calls in his Turkish allies, and they go on a field trip through Mesopotamia, and this causes a coup in Persia, and Khosrow is killed.
Lex Fridman
Is there something to be said, a little bit of texture to the motivations of the different empires and the different groups involved? So the East Roman Empire, the Persian Empire, and the Islamic Caliphates, were they after conquering? Were they after expansion? Were they after more like raiding for financial benefits? What was the motivation?
Is there something to be said, a little bit of texture to the motivations of the different empires and the different groups involved? So the East Roman Empire, the Persian Empire, and the Islamic Caliphates, were they after conquering? Were they after expansion? Were they after more like raiding for financial benefits? What was the motivation?
Anthony Kaldellis
So in the past, the Persian Shahs basically were interested in raiding, and they also had an interest in manpower. So all of those Mesopotamian agricultural estates won’t till themselves. So they were kind of insatiable for agricultural workforces and specialized craftsmen and people like that. So they would go into the empire and get them. But in this phase, it seems that Khosrow II is taking really to heart the idea that the Persian Empire should really extend to the Mediterranean as it did in, like, Achaemenid times, right, in, in ancient history, the empire that Alexander conquered.
So in the past, the Persian Shahs basically were interested in raiding, and they also had an interest in manpower. So all of those Mesopotamian agricultural estates won’t till themselves. So they were kind of insatiable for agricultural workforces and specialized craftsmen and people like that. So they would go into the empire and get them. But in this phase, it seems that Khosrow II is taking really to heart the idea that the Persian Empire should really extend to the Mediterranean as it did in, like, Achaemenid times, right, in, in ancient history, the empire that Alexander conquered.
Anthony Kaldellis
So it seems that the, the Sassanians, this is this dynasty, this Iranian dynasty that’s ruling the Persian Empire, of course, they were aware of the Achaemenids, but sometimes they would have these claims to reviving the former greatness of the Iranian Empire. So, you know, bathing in the Mediterranean Sea is something that many Near Eastern monarchs, you know, they, they did this as a sign of, of success. Anyway, for the Romans, it was sheer survival, just desperate survival, ’cause they knew that this was a war that could end the Roman state.
So it seems that the, the Sassanians, this is this dynasty, this Iranian dynasty that’s ruling the Persian Empire, of course, they were aware of the Achaemenids, but sometimes they would have these claims to reviving the former greatness of the Iranian Empire. So, you know, bathing in the Mediterranean Sea is something that many Near Eastern monarchs, you know, they, they did this as a sign of, of success. Anyway, for the Romans, it was sheer survival, just desperate survival, ’cause they knew that this was a war that could end the Roman state.
Lex Fridman
I mean, they’re already on the verge of being ended. And here, they’re defensive wars of survival.
I mean, they’re already on the verge of being ended. And here, they’re defensive wars of survival.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. So it’s pretty clear that initially the, the goal of Arab Muslim warfare is to unify Arabia. That is, that all Arabs should be Muslim and should be unified into this religious kind of state, whatever, that the prophet and his successors had created. Now, then they start striking out into Rome and into Iran. It’s not entirely clear, like, why. Now, there are obvious reasons. Like, I mean, we don’t– It’s not, like, a huge historical mystery why a, you know, recently formed successful army will decide to take on two very weak opponents– … who are on their doorstep. Like– … this is not, you know, complicated.
Yeah. So it’s pretty clear that initially the, the goal of Arab Muslim warfare is to unify Arabia. That is, that all Arabs should be Muslim and should be unified into this religious kind of state, whatever, that the prophet and his successors had created. Now, then they start striking out into Rome and into Iran. It’s not entirely clear, like, why. Now, there are obvious reasons. Like, I mean, we don’t– It’s not, like, a huge historical mystery why a, you know, recently formed successful army will decide to take on two very weak opponents– … who are on their doorstep. Like– … this is not, you know, complicated.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, they’re pretty effective at military– … conquest.
Yeah, they’re pretty effective at military– … conquest.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. But they’re striking both empires from a direction that those empires had never prepared to defend from. Arabia was just not, “Oh, you might get some occasional raiders, but you’re never gonna get an army that’s coming out that can potentially conquer you.” So the defensive orientations are all wrong. And these two empires have gone through this massive war that has destabilized them. They’re low on manpower, low on resources. The outcome is almost kind of inevitable. I don’t think there’s a great mystery.
Yeah. But they’re striking both empires from a direction that those empires had never prepared to defend from. Arabia was just not, “Oh, you might get some occasional raiders, but you’re never gonna get an army that’s coming out that can potentially conquer you.” So the defensive orientations are all wrong. And these two empires have gone through this massive war that has destabilized them. They’re low on manpower, low on resources. The outcome is almost kind of inevitable. I don’t think there’s a great mystery.
Lex Fridman
And the effect of that is they stripped away the richest provinces of the Roman Empire.
And the effect of that is they stripped away the richest provinces of the Roman Empire.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, Egypt in particular. That means now you can’t feed Constantinople. Like we talked about the grain from Egypt, right, that came to Constantinople. You don’t have that now. And so that means that the population of Constantinople will decline dramatically over the next few decades.
Yes, Egypt in particular. That means now you can’t feed Constantinople. Like we talked about the grain from Egypt, right, that came to Constantinople. You don’t have that now. And so that means that the population of Constantinople will decline dramatically over the next few decades.
Lex Fridman
So how does the empire rebuild itself, you know, restabilize? Because it’s not, it doesn’t collapse there, right?
So how does the empire rebuild itself, you know, restabilize? Because it’s not, it doesn’t collapse there, right?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
It stays, it survives. There’s interesting low points for the empire where it still survives.
It stays, it survives. There’s interesting low points for the empire where it still survives.
Anthony Kaldellis
This is one of them.
This is one of them.
Lex Fridman
And that is as interesting as the survival at the top, and the flourishing survival at the bottom is also super interesting. So how do– What happens? How does it kind of stabilize?
And that is as interesting as the survival at the top, and the flourishing survival at the bottom is also super interesting. So how do– What happens? How does it kind of stabilize?
Anthony Kaldellis
Very slowly. This is a painful process, and it takes them centuries, you could say. First you gotta stop the bleeding, just try to hold the line. It takes them decades to just to hold a line. Like, they get pummeled by the Arabs for decades in the seventh century until finally by the 660s, 670, they finally begin to beat them. Beat them on land and hold the line on the sea. And so we now have an investment in fleets. Eventually, you get the Greek fire, which is the flamethrowers. And when the Arabs try to take Constantinople, these attempts are defeated, like, twice, and that ensures the survival of the Roman state in some form.
Very slowly. This is a painful process, and it takes them centuries, you could say. First you gotta stop the bleeding, just try to hold the line. It takes them decades to just to hold a line. Like, they get pummeled by the Arabs for decades in the seventh century until finally by the 660s, 670, they finally begin to beat them. Beat them on land and hold the line on the sea. And so we now have an investment in fleets. Eventually, you get the Greek fire, which is the flamethrowers. And when the Arabs try to take Constantinople, these attempts are defeated, like, twice, and that ensures the survival of the Roman state in some form.
Lex Fridman
How were the flamethrowers used?
How were the flamethrowers used?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, this is an interesting question. We’re still kind of debating that.
Yes, this is an interesting question. We’re still kind of debating that.
Lex Fridman
Oh, it’s not fully understood.
Oh, it’s not fully understood.
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, it’s a state secret. They didn’t want this getting out, so they kept it pretty well. The fact that we’re debating it will tell you that they were pretty good at keeping secrets. So possibly through a, a pressure valve. Right? So you have this flammable compound whose preparation and components is also a state secret. So there’s specialized– There’s a corps of engineers that prepares this and deploys it. And it’s possibly through a heated pressurized container with a spigot, let’s say, that unleashes this thing through a nozzle, and it’s lit and basically spews flaming napalm on other ships, and it will continue to burn even when it’s on the water.
Well, it’s a state secret. They didn’t want this getting out, so they kept it pretty well. The fact that we’re debating it will tell you that they were pretty good at keeping secrets. So possibly through a, a pressure valve. Right? So you have this flammable compound whose preparation and components is also a state secret. So there’s specialized– There’s a corps of engineers that prepares this and deploys it. And it’s possibly through a heated pressurized container with a spigot, let’s say, that unleashes this thing through a nozzle, and it’s lit and basically spews flaming napalm on other ships, and it will continue to burn even when it’s on the water.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? On the top. So, like, you can’t, like, swim away or anything. So it’s this very, very destructive weapon. Terrifying. They used it against Vikings too. This is much later. So once the Vikings show up- … Like, when they would raid attacked Constantinople in the 940s, then again in the 1040s- … Yeah, the Romans used Greek fire fleets to just incinerate the… And that’ll teach Vikings. Yes. If you’re in that situation, you’d rather serve under the emperors than attack them.
Right? On the top. So, like, you can’t, like, swim away or anything. So it’s this very, very destructive weapon. Terrifying. They used it against Vikings too. This is much later. So once the Vikings show up- … Like, when they would raid attacked Constantinople in the 940s, then again in the 1040s- … Yeah, the Romans used Greek fire fleets to just incinerate the… And that’ll teach Vikings. Yes. If you’re in that situation, you’d rather serve under the emperors than attack them.
Lex Fridman
And so this is, this is a kind of nuclear weapon level state secret.
And so this is, this is a kind of nuclear weapon level state secret.
Anthony Kaldellis
They even had it in hand grenade form.
They even had it in hand grenade form.
Lex Fridman
This is a real thing?
This is a real thing?
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, yes.
Oh, yes.
Lex Fridman
Hand grenade form.
Hand grenade form.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. So it’s a, it’s like a clay container with the compound, and it has like some sort of fuse that you light on the outside and you throw it. Now, you throw it… You can throw it against people, but it’s not gonna be that effective. Maybe you burn a person, whatever. You just wasted a hand grenade for, you know, one person. It’s most effective against things like, siege engines. So you, you throw that on a wooden frame and, you know, yeah.
Yes. So it’s a, it’s like a clay container with the compound, and it has like some sort of fuse that you light on the outside and you throw it. Now, you throw it… You can throw it against people, but it’s not gonna be that effective. Maybe you burn a person, whatever. You just wasted a hand grenade for, you know, one person. It’s most effective against things like, siege engines. So you, you throw that on a wooden frame and, you know, yeah.
Lex Fridman
This is incredible. So this is one of the things that finally stabilized, stopped the bleeding from a military perspective.
This is incredible. So this is one of the things that finally stabilized, stopped the bleeding from a military perspective.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, eventually. Now, now remember, they’ve pulled the armies back into Asia Minor, so they’re, they’re beginning to defend and fortify Asia Minor. Now you have to find ways to pay and support and feed all of these soldiers, and this is a whole administrative—it’s a wrenching administrative readjustment. But they go through it. It takes them a long time. Eventually, they emerge with a different kind of strategic logistical system.
Yeah, eventually. Now, now remember, they’ve pulled the armies back into Asia Minor, so they’re, they’re beginning to defend and fortify Asia Minor. Now you have to find ways to pay and support and feed all of these soldiers, and this is a whole administrative—it’s a wrenching administrative readjustment. But they go through it. It takes them a long time. Eventually, they emerge with a different kind of strategic logistical system.
Lex Fridman
Just a smaller, harder- … core- … of the empire.
Just a smaller, harder- … core- … of the empire.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s right. Very militarized.
That’s right. Very militarized.
Lex Fridman
Very militarized. And then in the eighth century, the second Arab siege of Constantinople, that somehow fails.
Very militarized. And then in the eighth century, the second Arab siege of Constantinople, that somehow fails.
Anthony Kaldellis
In the early eighth century, yes, that was the second siege.
In the early eighth century, yes, that was the second siege.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, the early eighth century. So why, why did it fail? Can you tell the story of that siege? That was really the empire hanging by a thread.
Yeah, the early eighth century. So why, why did it fail? Can you tell the story of that siege? That was really the empire hanging by a thread.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes, but it happened to have a very competent man in charge. This is Leo III, and he’s an emperor who has—he’s a usurper. He’s just seized power. They knew that this massive Arab attack was coming, and so it’s quite possible that the Roman elites, you know, preferred to put someone capable in power at that moment. The city was very well prepared. I encourage people in the audience to go and read the sources that we have for that. You can find many accounts of it online. It was just very, very well done. He also had Bulgar allies.
Yes, but it happened to have a very competent man in charge. This is Leo III, and he’s an emperor who has—he’s a usurper. He’s just seized power. They knew that this massive Arab attack was coming, and so it’s quite possible that the Roman elites, you know, preferred to put someone capable in power at that moment. The city was very well prepared. I encourage people in the audience to go and read the sources that we have for that. You can find many accounts of it online. It was just very, very well done. He also had Bulgar allies.
Anthony Kaldellis
So these are the Bulgars who had just, you know, crossed the Danube just like just a few years earlier actually and settled south of the Danube, you know, where eventually, you know, Bulgaria emerged. So he had Bulgar allies, and he used the Greek fire very, very strategically. He used his own fleet. He contained the Arabs to certain places where they kind of starved and wore them down. Yeah, it’s just very well done.
So these are the Bulgars who had just, you know, crossed the Danube just like just a few years earlier actually and settled south of the Danube, you know, where eventually, you know, Bulgaria emerged. So he had Bulgar allies, and he used the Greek fire very, very strategically. He used his own fleet. He contained the Arabs to certain places where they kind of starved and wore them down. Yeah, it’s just very well done.
Lex Fridman
From a military perspective.
From a military perspective.
Anthony Kaldellis
From a military perspective.
From a military perspective.
Lex Fridman
Well, was there, was it the walls, the navy, the weather, the diplomacy, or just good luck that helped Constantinople hold?
Well, was there, was it the walls, the navy, the weather, the diplomacy, or just good luck that helped Constantinople hold?
Anthony Kaldellis
I don’t see much role for good luck there. I mean, I think he had it all pretty planned out. It was all of the elements that you mentioned. And yeah, he just deployed them very, very astutely and went on to rule after that for another 20-some years, and his son continued. They formed a dynasty. We call it the Isaurian dynasty, though they were not from Isauria.
I don’t see much role for good luck there. I mean, I think he had it all pretty planned out. It was all of the elements that you mentioned. And yeah, he just deployed them very, very astutely and went on to rule after that for another 20-some years, and his son continued. They formed a dynasty. We call it the Isaurian dynasty, though they were not from Isauria.
Lex Fridman
And then from that, the fascinating thing that we mentioned about religion, there was a whole stretch of time marked by intense internal religious conflicts over iconoclasm. Maybe you can clarify this, but so iconoclasm, of course, is whether sacred images, icons, should be venerated or destroyed. This had major political and theological stakes. The seemingly smallest things can have the biggest of conflicts.
And then from that, the fascinating thing that we mentioned about religion, there was a whole stretch of time marked by intense internal religious conflicts over iconoclasm. Maybe you can clarify this, but so iconoclasm, of course, is whether sacred images, icons, should be venerated or destroyed. This had major political and theological stakes. The seemingly smallest things can have the biggest of conflicts.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. You’ve been in an Orthodox church. Have you seen all the icons and the just painting everywhere? Every, every space that you can imagine is covered in either icons or images or iconography of saints.
Yeah. You’ve been in an Orthodox church. Have you seen all the icons and the just painting everywhere? Every, every space that you can imagine is covered in either icons or images or iconography of saints.
Anthony Kaldellis
All right. That’s a result of this. No, that’s not what Christian churches used to be like, at least not in Constantinople. But his dynasty basically tried to limit or remove images from churches, and ultimately that policy failed. And the other side that wanted images or liked images, or let me put it differently, thought that images were not only appropriate but helpful in the context of Christian worship prevailed. And so gradually the churches began to fill up with icons, lots of icons. They’re almost like, you know, like a, a catch word for Orthodox, you know, devotion. I have icons at home. You have a little corner in the house and you have little iconography. Anyway, I mean, as a secular Orthodox person, but I… even I can’t get away from them.
All right. That’s a result of this. No, that’s not what Christian churches used to be like, at least not in Constantinople. But his dynasty basically tried to limit or remove images from churches, and ultimately that policy failed. And the other side that wanted images or liked images, or let me put it differently, thought that images were not only appropriate but helpful in the context of Christian worship prevailed. And so gradually the churches began to fill up with icons, lots of icons. They’re almost like, you know, like a, a catch word for Orthodox, you know, devotion. I have icons at home. You have a little corner in the house and you have little iconography. Anyway, I mean, as a secular Orthodox person, but I… even I can’t get away from them.
Lex Fridman
But that has serious consequences. I mean, that was-
But that has serious consequences. I mean, that was-
Anthony Kaldellis
It does, yes,
It does, yes,
Lex Fridman
… serious. It was an extremely serious internal religious conflict.
… serious. It was an extremely serious internal religious conflict.
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, okay, so one asterisk on that. In my research, I did not find a popular interest in this matter. Like-
Well, okay, so one asterisk on that. In my research, I did not find a popular interest in this matter. Like-
Lex Fridman
Oh, interesting
Oh, interesting
Anthony Kaldellis
… yeah, I don’t-
… yeah, I don’t-
Lex Fridman
So this is an overblown-
So this is an overblown-
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. Yes, socially completely overblown.
Yes. Yes, socially completely overblown.
Lex Fridman
Oh, this is one of those things where religious folks will write the story of history.
Oh, this is one of those things where religious folks will write the story of history.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s it. Got it.
That’s it. Got it.
Lex Fridman
Ah.
Ah.
Anthony Kaldellis
You got it. I could not find… There were, like, a few emperors, and there’s some bishops and abbots and monks. Like, I don’t know, maybe 100, 200 people are, like, seriously invested in this, and they’re going at it. But these are the people who write the texts. But they never mention, for example, that, oh, you know, the, the people of Constantinople, they rose up, and they demanded icons or not icons or anything like that. Nah, never. So in my view, this is one of those controversies that’s only a few people really, really cared- … about it, and unfortunately, they’re the ones who wrote the sources.
You got it. I could not find… There were, like, a few emperors, and there’s some bishops and abbots and monks. Like, I don’t know, maybe 100, 200 people are, like, seriously invested in this, and they’re going at it. But these are the people who write the texts. But they never mention, for example, that, oh, you know, the, the people of Constantinople, they rose up, and they demanded icons or not icons or anything like that. Nah, never. So in my view, this is one of those controversies that’s only a few people really, really cared- … about it, and unfortunately, they’re the ones who wrote the sources.
Lex Fridman
So you always have to be very careful to consider the sources when you’re reading about anything involving religious events.
So you always have to be very careful to consider the sources when you’re reading about anything involving religious events.
Anthony Kaldellis
Or any kind of events.
Or any kind of events.
Lex Fridman
But certain things are more intensely, people are more intensely passionate about- … and therefore they’re going, that bias is going to- … bleed into the way you report the history.
But certain things are more intensely, people are more intensely passionate about- … and therefore they’re going, that bias is going to- … bleed into the way you report the history.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. And not only that, when emperors changed their policy, almost everyone fell into line. They switched positions. It’s like, “No, yeah, whatever. Put the images, take the images,” like, whatever. I mean, like this isn’t, they did not see this as central. Some people did, and they got very worked up about it. Anyway, but in the end, the pro-icon position won, and their view just began to fill up the space. Like, like it literally was filling up the churches, and it still does. Yeah.
Yeah. And not only that, when emperors changed their policy, almost everyone fell into line. They switched positions. It’s like, “No, yeah, whatever. Put the images, take the images,” like, whatever. I mean, like this isn’t, they did not see this as central. Some people did, and they got very worked up about it. Anyway, but in the end, the pro-icon position won, and their view just began to fill up the space. Like, like it literally was filling up the churches, and it still does. Yeah.
Why the Roman empire survived so long
Lex Fridman
The thing is, we somehow took on the impossible task of talking about a thousand-
The thing is, we somehow took on the impossible task of talking about a thousand-
Anthony Kaldellis
It’ll defeat you, man. It’ll defeat you every time.
It’ll defeat you, man. It’ll defeat you every time.
Lex Fridman
I mean, there’s a reason why you really wanna do a thousand-hour podcast on this, right? As you do, as there’s so many incredible conversations about every single emperor, every single nuanced detail of the emperors. It really is a thriving civilization. It’s a thriving empire which in it contains so many lessons for even the modern times. But anyway, you have written one of the books is Streams of Gold, Rivers of Blood: The Rise and Fall of Byzantium, 955 AD to the First Crusade. So this period has… We talked about survival and some low points. This is a period where, once again, there’s some flourishing. So by the 10th century in the Macedonian era, the empire is back. It’s wealthy, it’s culturally confident, and under emperors like Basil II who I think is in your top 10 list.
I mean, there’s a reason why you really wanna do a thousand-hour podcast on this, right? As you do, as there’s so many incredible conversations about every single emperor, every single nuanced detail of the emperors. It really is a thriving civilization. It’s a thriving empire which in it contains so many lessons for even the modern times. But anyway, you have written one of the books is Streams of Gold, Rivers of Blood: The Rise and Fall of Byzantium, 955 AD to the First Crusade. So this period has… We talked about survival and some low points. This is a period where, once again, there’s some flourishing. So by the 10th century in the Macedonian era, the empire is back. It’s wealthy, it’s culturally confident, and under emperors like Basil II who I think is in your top 10 list.
Lex Fridman
It is expanding again, and this is a period that you describe in part in your book, Streams of Gold, Rivers of Blood. So how did Byzantium go from surviving to expanding again?
It is expanding again, and this is a period that you describe in part in your book, Streams of Gold, Rivers of Blood. So how did Byzantium go from surviving to expanding again?
Anthony Kaldellis
So I wrote that book in part in order to test myself and see if I could write narrative. So I hadn’t written a history narrative book up until that point. Everything I wrote was sort of analytical, right? And it was successful enough that a few years later, my editor asked me to write the big history, the new Roman Empire-
So I wrote that book in part in order to test myself and see if I could write narrative. So I hadn’t written a history narrative book up until that point. Everything I wrote was sort of analytical, right? And it was successful enough that a few years later, my editor asked me to write the big history, the new Roman Empire-
Lex Fridman
Yeah
Yeah
Anthony Kaldellis
… the thousand page—
… the thousand page—
Lex Fridman
Of the whole thing
Of the whole thing
Anthony Kaldellis
… of the whole thing. And so I set for myself the task of explaining in this book, Streams of Gold, Rivers of Blood, a very particular period that was marked by a sudden turn to conquest again after a long period of more or less defensive war. 955, a new military leadership is appointed, and the Romans go conquering again, especially in Cilicia, northern Syria, and Cyprus, and the Caucasus, and then eventually also Bulgaria. And then right afterwards, they have this generation plus period of stability and prosperity, and then they’re hit by a triple whammy. These are three new attackers. So it’s primarily the Seljuk Turks coming in from the east, some Pechenegs coming down from the north over the Danube, and the Normans in southern Italy.
… of the whole thing. And so I set for myself the task of explaining in this book, Streams of Gold, Rivers of Blood, a very particular period that was marked by a sudden turn to conquest again after a long period of more or less defensive war. 955, a new military leadership is appointed, and the Romans go conquering again, especially in Cilicia, northern Syria, and Cyprus, and the Caucasus, and then eventually also Bulgaria. And then right afterwards, they have this generation plus period of stability and prosperity, and then they’re hit by a triple whammy. These are three new attackers. So it’s primarily the Seljuk Turks coming in from the east, some Pechenegs coming down from the north over the Danube, and the Normans in southern Italy.
Anthony Kaldellis
And under the pressure of this three-part attack, the, you know, this expansionist—what had become a more imperial state—buckles. And enters another one of these crises, just like the one we described for the seventh century. You know, survives it by the skin of its teeth. And goes on again to rebuild and become prosperous, wealthy, and powerful again, as it does throughout its history. It’s these cycles. So I just wanted to describe that iteration of that- … that process, and that’s what I do in that book.
And under the pressure of this three-part attack, the, you know, this expansionist—what had become a more imperial state—buckles. And enters another one of these crises, just like the one we described for the seventh century. You know, survives it by the skin of its teeth. And goes on again to rebuild and become prosperous, wealthy, and powerful again, as it does throughout its history. It’s these cycles. So I just wanted to describe that iteration of that- … that process, and that’s what I do in that book.
Lex Fridman
So I think the traditional view in this perfect storm of the 11th century is that it was more to do with the internal sort of moral decay and civilian emperors neglecting the army, this internal stuff. And you make the case that it’s the external stuff, the three-prong attack, like you said, Normans in the west, the Turkic steppe people in the north, and in Central Asia, the Turks in the east. Can you describe that—the three forces—and the case that that was the main reason why it hit a low?
So I think the traditional view in this perfect storm of the 11th century is that it was more to do with the internal sort of moral decay and civilian emperors neglecting the army, this internal stuff. And you make the case that it’s the external stuff, the three-prong attack, like you said, Normans in the west, the Turkic steppe people in the north, and in Central Asia, the Turks in the east. Can you describe that—the three forces—and the case that that was the main reason why it hit a low?
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, this is also a methodological problem, right? In other words, when you’re looking at a society that suddenly faces a bunch of problems, and you could, you know, reasonably make the case for a kind of decline or a crisis, is your instinct, it’s your first instinct to suppose that there must be something wrong in the internal mechanisms of that society that, you know, led it to fail, which is what my field has done traditionally. In part because of the decline and fall model, right, of this society, we’re kind of primed to think that there was something wrong with it.
Well, this is also a methodological problem, right? In other words, when you’re looking at a society that suddenly faces a bunch of problems, and you could, you know, reasonably make the case for a kind of decline or a crisis, is your instinct, it’s your first instinct to suppose that there must be something wrong in the internal mechanisms of that society that, you know, led it to fail, which is what my field has done traditionally. In part because of the decline and fall model, right, of this society, we’re kind of primed to think that there was something wrong with it.
Anthony Kaldellis
It’s a long story. Or is it reasonable to say that a society that does not seem to have any, like, particularly serious structural flaws is hit by external, you know, challenges that it couldn’t realistically have foreseen or prepared for such that, you know, it couldn’t cope with them and, as I said, buckled. And I think that’s what happened. I think that’s the main narrative. Not that there weren’t problems. There were. But no state can, I mean, medieval or ancient, can realistically survive the simultaneous attack of three very different kinds of enemies, the Normans or, like, these knights, like a new type of Western warfare that is just all about, you know, grinding the enemy to bits. But who are also terrorists. Like, they’re straight up terrorists.
It’s a long story. Or is it reasonable to say that a society that does not seem to have any, like, particularly serious structural flaws is hit by external, you know, challenges that it couldn’t realistically have foreseen or prepared for such that, you know, it couldn’t cope with them and, as I said, buckled. And I think that’s what happened. I think that’s the main narrative. Not that there weren’t problems. There were. But no state can, I mean, medieval or ancient, can realistically survive the simultaneous attack of three very different kinds of enemies, the Normans or, like, these knights, like a new type of Western warfare that is just all about, you know, grinding the enemy to bits. But who are also terrorists. Like, they’re straight up terrorists.
Lex Fridman
Normans are fascinating because, I mean, there’s-
Normans are fascinating because, I mean, there’s-
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah
Yeah
Lex Fridman
… there’s a Viking component too- … with the Normans. That’s a whole… So they have, they have three different kinds of enemies.
… there’s a Viking component too- … with the Normans. That’s a whole… So they have, they have three different kinds of enemies.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. The Pechenegs, who, you know, a totally different type of, you know, probably mostly nomadic horsemen. And then the Seljuk Turks who are also mostly nomadic horsemen, but who are coming in from Central Asia with vast reserves of manpower behind them. In fact, either intending to or, as it happens, effecting a demographic change in not just demographic, but ecological too, because they basically, when they move into Asia Minor, they’re transforming or terraforming agricultural land into pasturage. And they’re just backed by reserves of manpower that no other enemy of the empire has had yet.
Yes. The Pechenegs, who, you know, a totally different type of, you know, probably mostly nomadic horsemen. And then the Seljuk Turks who are also mostly nomadic horsemen, but who are coming in from Central Asia with vast reserves of manpower behind them. In fact, either intending to or, as it happens, effecting a demographic change in not just demographic, but ecological too, because they basically, when they move into Asia Minor, they’re transforming or terraforming agricultural land into pasturage. And they’re just backed by reserves of manpower that no other enemy of the empire has had yet.
Anthony Kaldellis
So yeah, how do you, how do you cope with these situations? I mean, they’re, it’s very, very difficult, and it’s a wonder that they survived it at all. Now, they also have internal problems, and I’m not gonna sort of try to sweep these under the rug, right? In particular, we’re seeing the end of the Macedonian dynasty. This is a dynasty that had lasted for about two centuries, and this has a kind of politically destabilizing effect. New emperors, and there are a lot of, like, childless old men in this period, are relatively insecure.
So yeah, how do you, how do you cope with these situations? I mean, they’re, it’s very, very difficult, and it’s a wonder that they survived it at all. Now, they also have internal problems, and I’m not gonna sort of try to sweep these under the rug, right? In particular, we’re seeing the end of the Macedonian dynasty. This is a dynasty that had lasted for about two centuries, and this has a kind of politically destabilizing effect. New emperors, and there are a lot of, like, childless old men in this period, are relatively insecure.
Anthony Kaldellis
They don’t have this sort of a dynastic glitz behind them, and so they’re tending to, to buy a lot of political support, like hand out these exemptions, give cash, you know, titles to anyone who will support them, and this, of course, causes a budget problem. Like, they don’t have enough money after a while. And then they have to start raising all of these armies to deal with all of these problems, and that just increases the pressure on the budget, and so there is an internal problem as well, yeah.
They don’t have this sort of a dynastic glitz behind them, and so they’re tending to, to buy a lot of political support, like hand out these exemptions, give cash, you know, titles to anyone who will support them, and this, of course, causes a budget problem. Like, they don’t have enough money after a while. And then they have to start raising all of these armies to deal with all of these problems, and that just increases the pressure on the budget, and so there is an internal problem as well, yeah.
Lex Fridman
So you mentioned this loop of thriving and then having to survive, surviving, that happens a few times- … throughout the history of the Roman Empire. It seems that societies in general oscillate in that way. Is there something particular you could say about the oscillations, the loops that the Roman Empire goes through?
So you mentioned this loop of thriving and then having to survive, surviving, that happens a few times- … throughout the history of the Roman Empire. It seems that societies in general oscillate in that way. Is there something particular you could say about the oscillations, the loops that the Roman Empire goes through?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. Now, I don’t think this is an oscillation. At least that’s not how I think of it in my own mind. So as I explained, the crises that this em- this polity, this state, this society that it undergoes are dis- there are a discrete number of them. I can, I can tell you what they are, and we’ve, we’ve talked about most of them so far.
Yes. Now, I don’t think this is an oscillation. At least that’s not how I think of it in my own mind. So as I explained, the crises that this em- this polity, this state, this society that it undergoes are dis- there are a discrete number of them. I can, I can tell you what they are, and we’ve, we’ve talked about most of them so far.
Anthony Kaldellis
They don’t last very long, and they are all sudden challenges that appear from the outside. In other words, they’re exogenous shocks that they can’t really have prepared for. These shocks cause massive territorial loss, which requires adjustment, right? But they don’t last that long. In other words, the Romans almost always, at some point, figure out how to hold a line, how to consolidate their position, regroup, and put their economy and their society back on a trajectory of revival, regrowth, and eventual reconquest. Always. Every single time, except the last time, right? And for me, this poses the following kind of dilemma which I can answer.
They don’t last very long, and they are all sudden challenges that appear from the outside. In other words, they’re exogenous shocks that they can’t really have prepared for. These shocks cause massive territorial loss, which requires adjustment, right? But they don’t last that long. In other words, the Romans almost always, at some point, figure out how to hold a line, how to consolidate their position, regroup, and put their economy and their society back on a trajectory of revival, regrowth, and eventual reconquest. Always. Every single time, except the last time, right? And for me, this poses the following kind of dilemma which I can answer.
Anthony Kaldellis
And the dilemma is, should we define the society by these brief crises of exogenous shocks, or should we define it by the centuries-long, sometimes, periods of regrowth, consolidation, and stabilization which are endogenous. Nobody came from the outside to help them rebuild. And my answer is unequivocally the latter. So I see this as a society whose internal organization primes it to stabilize and embark on steady growth. Slow and gradual, but steady. And, and that’s what I would like my field to explain more, and I’m gonna try to do so in the book I mentioned that I’m writing on, like, the longevity or the resilience of this society.
And the dilemma is, should we define the society by these brief crises of exogenous shocks, or should we define it by the centuries-long, sometimes, periods of regrowth, consolidation, and stabilization which are endogenous. Nobody came from the outside to help them rebuild. And my answer is unequivocally the latter. So I see this as a society whose internal organization primes it to stabilize and embark on steady growth. Slow and gradual, but steady. And, and that’s what I would like my field to explain more, and I’m gonna try to do so in the book I mentioned that I’m writing on, like, the longevity or the resilience of this society.
Anthony Kaldellis
And not try to center the crises, which I see as being from the outside. Like, these aren’t… Of course, they’re part of its story, but they’re not coming from it. What’s coming from it is the stability, and I think that’s the more interesting part of this society.
And not try to center the crises, which I see as being from the outside. Like, these aren’t… Of course, they’re part of its story, but they’re not coming from it. What’s coming from it is the stability, and I think that’s the more interesting part of this society.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, so the, you know, these peak-to-peak histories, as you can think of them, they miss the machinery in the valleys. Institutions, incentives, daily life, all of these things. The politics, the religion. You have a bunch of revisionist history ideas in your work. You’re challenging the field.
Yeah, so the, you know, these peak-to-peak histories, as you can think of them, they miss the machinery in the valleys. Institutions, incentives, daily life, all of these things. The politics, the religion. You have a bunch of revisionist history ideas in your work. You’re challenging the field.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. You could say that.
Yes. You could say that.
Lex Fridman
In the best possible way. So just to linger on it, what are, what are some of the things that historians miss? So this is a big one, right, that you’re speaking to, which is, like, focusing too much on specific moments versus on the broad structural underpinnings of, of an empire, of our society.
In the best possible way. So just to linger on it, what are, what are some of the things that historians miss? So this is a big one, right, that you’re speaking to, which is, like, focusing too much on specific moments versus on the broad structural underpinnings of, of an empire, of our society.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right. So what you alluded to there is a critique of what we might call short histories of Byzantium, which is a kind of genre of a book. Right? This isn’t necessarily, like, what my other revisionist ideas are about. The more important ones are things like the monarchical republic that we talked about. In other words, that there’s actually a broader spectrum of political participation. That emperors are having to look over their shoulders all the time. That there is a deeper matrix of Roman Republican thought there. Like, that’s one revisionist idea. Another one is about Roman identity, just like who are these people?
Right. So what you alluded to there is a critique of what we might call short histories of Byzantium, which is a kind of genre of a book. Right? This isn’t necessarily, like, what my other revisionist ideas are about. The more important ones are things like the monarchical republic that we talked about. In other words, that there’s actually a broader spectrum of political participation. That emperors are having to look over their shoulders all the time. That there is a deeper matrix of Roman Republican thought there. Like, that’s one revisionist idea. Another one is about Roman identity, just like who are these people?
Anthony Kaldellis
And no, they are Romans, and in fact, it’s kind of an ethnic identity after a certain point. Like, those kinds of ideas. The criticism of the peak-to-peak kinds of books. So if you’re trying to condense 1,200 years into 120 pages or even, you know, even 200 pages, there’s no way to do so realistically and give a sense of the whole terrain. In other words, what these books do is they go, they jump from highlight to highlight, and these highlights are sometimes things like, you know, everything Justinian did because it’s so extravagant, to the crises.
And no, they are Romans, and in fact, it’s kind of an ethnic identity after a certain point. Like, those kinds of ideas. The criticism of the peak-to-peak kinds of books. So if you’re trying to condense 1,200 years into 120 pages or even, you know, even 200 pages, there’s no way to do so realistically and give a sense of the whole terrain. In other words, what these books do is they go, they jump from highlight to highlight, and these highlights are sometimes things like, you know, everything Justinian did because it’s so extravagant, to the crises.
Anthony Kaldellis
The crises are, of course, dramatic moments that you can’t skip. And you can’t get a sense from these books as to how all of this is interconnected in the valleys, right? In the crags, down there. Like, what, what are the mechanisms that are connecting these peaks together? And that’s how I tried to write the big history, The New Roman Empire. Is to tell the story by casting light in those darker places. That is, to show how especially institutions and ideologies sort of tie, you know, people’s lives together. That is, tie people to institutions and to the broader history that surrounds them.
The crises are, of course, dramatic moments that you can’t skip. And you can’t get a sense from these books as to how all of this is interconnected in the valleys, right? In the crags, down there. Like, what, what are the mechanisms that are connecting these peaks together? And that’s how I tried to write the big history, The New Roman Empire. Is to tell the story by casting light in those darker places. That is, to show how especially institutions and ideologies sort of tie, you know, people’s lives together. That is, tie people to institutions and to the broader history that surrounds them.
Anthony Kaldellis
So that the reader can get a sense when I’m, when I’m recounting specific events or either of, you know, greatness or of a success or a failure, that they can understand roughly why these things are happening, right? Look, there’s no perfect answer. A short book will just not tell you these things. A long book, well, is a long book.
So that the reader can get a sense when I’m, when I’m recounting specific events or either of, you know, greatness or of a success or a failure, that they can understand roughly why these things are happening, right? Look, there’s no perfect answer. A short book will just not tell you these things. A long book, well, is a long book.
Lex Fridman
Well, in some sense, I mean, this, in this, even in this very conversation, I think we did a pretty good job of looking at the valleys, at the structure, at the institutions. And that gives you a sense of the whole underpinnings. And so it’s, it’s beautiful. It’s a beautiful way to see history, especially for societies that have lasted as long as- … as the, as the East Roman Empire has.
Well, in some sense, I mean, this, in this, even in this very conversation, I think we did a pretty good job of looking at the valleys, at the structure, at the institutions. And that gives you a sense of the whole underpinnings. And so it’s, it’s beautiful. It’s a beautiful way to see history, especially for societies that have lasted as long as- … as the, as the East Roman Empire has.
Anthony Kaldellis
But it did take us a few hours.
But it did take us a few hours.
Lex Fridman
Yes.
Yes.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. You’re right. But it requires that you actually spend some time to look in there, yeah. Yeah.
Yes. You’re right. But it requires that you actually spend some time to look in there, yeah. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
What’s a few hours among friends?
What’s a few hours among friends?
Anthony Kaldellis
No, no, no, that’s… I agree.
No, no, no, that’s… I agree.
Lex Fridman
So zooming out and asking once again, the old—we’re getting a little close to last call at a bar, I’m gonna ask you the big question. We asked it before about the collapse of the West Roman Empire. When did the decline of the East Roman Empire begin for you? Throughout these loops, when, if you were to predict, would you be able to say where this is gonna be over? And what led to that decline and the collapse? So of course, the collapse is finally in 1453 AD.
So zooming out and asking once again, the old—we’re getting a little close to last call at a bar, I’m gonna ask you the big question. We asked it before about the collapse of the West Roman Empire. When did the decline of the East Roman Empire begin for you? Throughout these loops, when, if you were to predict, would you be able to say where this is gonna be over? And what led to that decline and the collapse? So of course, the collapse is finally in 1453 AD.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right. That’s actually a very good question. In other words, not looking at all of the previous crises that caused loss of territory, like, you know, you lose Egypt, you lose Syria, you lose Palestine, you lose Eastern Asia Minor, you lo- right? But at what point could you say there’s no coming back from this?
Right. That’s actually a very good question. In other words, not looking at all of the previous crises that caused loss of territory, like, you know, you lose Egypt, you lose Syria, you lose Palestine, you lose Eastern Asia Minor, you lo- right? But at what point could you say there’s no coming back from this?
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? I would say early 14th century. Somewhere between 1300 and 1350, the sources of resilience begin to dry up, and you have a number of setbacks. They lose Asia Minor to the Turks by 1300, roughly, which means that you can now no longer draw upon the two wings, as it were, the European side and the Asian side, which they could always do. They’re confined to Europe. And then you have a series of civil wars, you have the Serbian expansion and you have the Black Death, and they never recover from that. In 1300, you think of this, you look at it and you think, “That’s a tiny little Balkan state.”
Right? I would say early 14th century. Somewhere between 1300 and 1350, the sources of resilience begin to dry up, and you have a number of setbacks. They lose Asia Minor to the Turks by 1300, roughly, which means that you can now no longer draw upon the two wings, as it were, the European side and the Asian side, which they could always do. They’re confined to Europe. And then you have a series of civil wars, you have the Serbian expansion and you have the Black Death, and they never recover from that. In 1300, you think of this, you look at it and you think, “That’s a tiny little Balkan state.”
Anthony Kaldellis
Okay, it goes from Constantinople to the Adriatic in this just sort of ribbon, right, this corridor that just stretches across the Balkans. And yet, it’s not that much smaller than England and has about as much, if not more, revenue, because they’re still able to raise cash, because taxes. Right? So the emperor’s still able to pull in a lot of gold. And his territory is not, you know, completely insignificant. It’s not what, you know, the Roman Empire used to be. But I don’t think that it’s completely lost. Then they have some civil wars. Then one emper- a rebel makes a deal with the Serbs, surrenders half that territory. Okay, after that, game over. What’s surprising is it takes the Turks that long. 1453, that’s another century.
Okay, it goes from Constantinople to the Adriatic in this just sort of ribbon, right, this corridor that just stretches across the Balkans. And yet, it’s not that much smaller than England and has about as much, if not more, revenue, because they’re still able to raise cash, because taxes. Right? So the emperor’s still able to pull in a lot of gold. And his territory is not, you know, completely insignificant. It’s not what, you know, the Roman Empire used to be. But I don’t think that it’s completely lost. Then they have some civil wars. Then one emper- a rebel makes a deal with the Serbs, surrenders half that territory. Okay, after that, game over. What’s surprising is it takes the Turks that long. 1453, that’s another century.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? It didn’t need to be. It looks like they might have had it wrapped up like 50 years aft-, you know, like by 1400. But then accidental events happened. This is Timur, Tamerlane comes- … from Central Asia, trounces the Turks, breaks up their empire. So they go into a cycle of, you know, rebuilding, and so that’s why it takes another 50 years. Anyway, but I’d say by the 1340s, game over.
Right? It didn’t need to be. It looks like they might have had it wrapped up like 50 years aft-, you know, like by 1400. But then accidental events happened. This is Timur, Tamerlane comes- … from Central Asia, trounces the Turks, breaks up their empire. So they go into a cycle of, you know, rebuilding, and so that’s why it takes another 50 years. Anyway, but I’d say by the 1340s, game over.
Lex Fridman
And so why did it collapse? What are the things in the ground, when you zoom out, the thing that ate away at the, I like this term, sources of resilience?
And so why did it collapse? What are the things in the ground, when you zoom out, the thing that ate away at the, I like this term, sources of resilience?
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, foreign invasions. There’s no question. It’s just-
Oh, foreign invasions. There’s no question. It’s just-
Lex Fridman
It’s just invasions.
It’s just invasions.
Anthony Kaldellis
…it’s foreign invasions, those which they could not cope with. They coped with lots of them. But, you know, it, all it takes is to lose to one, and you lose some part of your territory. And if you keep losing enough, you won’t have anything to fall back on, and that’s what happens.
…it’s foreign invasions, those which they could not cope with. They coped with lots of them. But, you know, it, all it takes is to lose to one, and you lose some part of your territory. And if you keep losing enough, you won’t have anything to fall back on, and that’s what happens.
Lex Fridman
So really, you know, if there’s no significant external invasions, the East Roman Empire, the fundamentals, the taxation system, the way the policies were developed, the way the politics was done, the way the representation was done, all of that, this empire could have lasted for another thousand years.
So really, you know, if there’s no significant external invasions, the East Roman Empire, the fundamentals, the taxation system, the way the policies were developed, the way the politics was done, the way the representation was done, all of that, this empire could have lasted for another thousand years.
Anthony Kaldellis
Absolutely. I’m absolutely convinced of this because you never see movements to split away. That is, there’s no separatist movements, at least not on the part of any Roman provincials. There’s one separatist movement, which is Bulgaria. We mentioned Bulgaria was conquered, right, in 1018. It, there’s a couple of independentist movements, rebellions. Eventually one succeeds in 1185, so just under two centuries. So Bulgaria is the only part of this empire that actively seeks to break away and does so. But for the rest of the 1,200 years, you don’t find provincials wanting to leave this system. However much they complain about the taxes, they don’t want to leave, and they make no move to do so.
Absolutely. I’m absolutely convinced of this because you never see movements to split away. That is, there’s no separatist movements, at least not on the part of any Roman provincials. There’s one separatist movement, which is Bulgaria. We mentioned Bulgaria was conquered, right, in 1018. It, there’s a couple of independentist movements, rebellions. Eventually one succeeds in 1185, so just under two centuries. So Bulgaria is the only part of this empire that actively seeks to break away and does so. But for the rest of the 1,200 years, you don’t find provincials wanting to leave this system. However much they complain about the taxes, they don’t want to leave, and they make no move to do so.
Anthony Kaldellis
You also never have a moment when the center loses its ability to tax its territories, right? You don’t have, like, widespread peasant uprisings or agricultural rebellions or these kinds of things which happens in every other one of these empires. They also never decide to partition it. The Franks partition theirs, right, like after Charlemagne. No. There are no, like, Roman warlords that try to carve out a piece of the territory for themselves and rule it independent. Nope, that doesn’t happen either. So if you’re looking at the kinds of factors that cause states to fail, fragment, you know, become ungovernable, these never happen.
You also never have a moment when the center loses its ability to tax its territories, right? You don’t have, like, widespread peasant uprisings or agricultural rebellions or these kinds of things which happens in every other one of these empires. They also never decide to partition it. The Franks partition theirs, right, like after Charlemagne. No. There are no, like, Roman warlords that try to carve out a piece of the territory for themselves and rule it independent. Nope, that doesn’t happen either. So if you’re looking at the kinds of factors that cause states to fail, fragment, you know, become ungovernable, these never happen.
Lex Fridman
This is so incredible. This is truly incredible. In the history of human civilization, just an incredible study of what human societies can form. So, what are the whys? Why? Why? Why was it so stable?
This is so incredible. This is truly incredible. In the history of human civilization, just an incredible study of what human societies can form. So, what are the whys? Why? Why? Why was it so stable?
Anthony Kaldellis
Well, now look, there are other stable… Like, for example the, the British monarchy.
Well, now look, there are other stable… Like, for example the, the British monarchy.
Lex Fridman
Sure.
Sure.
Anthony Kaldellis
That’s been around for quite a while.
That’s been around for quite a while.
Lex Fridman
Yeah, that’s true.
Yeah, that’s true.
Anthony Kaldellis
Right? States like Portugal, Japan, they have one thing in common. They’re all tucked away at the edges. Like, they’re off, they’re little islands or whatever. They’re not like, right? We’re talking about a society that was right in the-
Right? States like Portugal, Japan, they have one thing in common. They’re all tucked away at the edges. Like, they’re off, they’re little islands or whatever. They’re not like, right? We’re talking about a society that was right in the-
Lex Fridman
In the, yeah
In the, yeah
Anthony Kaldellis
… middle of one of the main corridors of empire building and new religions in the world. This is the most dangerous neighborhood, right, that you can possibly live in. So no wonder it didn’t survive. Like it would’ve been extraordinary if it had. But absent those forces, I don’t see any forces of internal decomposition that would have imperiled it, you know, significantly.
… middle of one of the main corridors of empire building and new religions in the world. This is the most dangerous neighborhood, right, that you can possibly live in. So no wonder it didn’t survive. Like it would’ve been extraordinary if it had. But absent those forces, I don’t see any forces of internal decomposition that would have imperiled it, you know, significantly.
Lex Fridman
So what, I mean we’ve talked about a lot of it, but what, just to, like, return to it, why was there no internal sources of decomposition? Like why, why did it work so well? Why did the people feel represented? Yes, they… By the way, you talked about how they complain about the taxes, which is one of the signs of a healthy society, that we… It’s like complaining about the weather. The fact that you complain about the taxes actually means that you’re happy with the taxes, kind of counterintuitively, or it’s not too bad. You’re just complaining as part of the system. Anyway, but why? Why, why did it work so well? Why did everybody get along-
So what, I mean we’ve talked about a lot of it, but what, just to, like, return to it, why was there no internal sources of decomposition? Like why, why did it work so well? Why did the people feel represented? Yes, they… By the way, you talked about how they complain about the taxes, which is one of the signs of a healthy society, that we… It’s like complaining about the weather. The fact that you complain about the taxes actually means that you’re happy with the taxes, kind of counterintuitively, or it’s not too bad. You’re just complaining as part of the system. Anyway, but why? Why, why did it work so well? Why did everybody get along-
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, no, they
Oh, no, they
Lex Fridman
… feel represented? No, not get along. Not in a, in a silly way. I mean, sufficiently to where they wouldn’t… Warlords wouldn’t rise and break apart the system and- … or if there was those kinds of forces, they would come back together. Like, why is this such a great self-healing system?
… feel represented? No, not get along. Not in a, in a silly way. I mean, sufficiently to where they wouldn’t… Warlords wouldn’t rise and break apart the system and- … or if there was those kinds of forces, they would come back together. Like, why is this such a great self-healing system?
Anthony Kaldellis
So you’re exactly right. So sufficient is the key word. We don’t want to idealize this, right? These aren’t, like, they’re not just dancing in the streets, holding hands and then direct… It’s so– Even when it comes to the tax system, they are complaining all the time. Of course, they’re doing so because they know that complaining gets you things.
So you’re exactly right. So sufficient is the key word. We don’t want to idealize this, right? These aren’t, like, they’re not just dancing in the streets, holding hands and then direct… It’s so– Even when it comes to the tax system, they are complaining all the time. Of course, they’re doing so because they know that complaining gets you things.
Anthony Kaldellis
There’s no disincentive to complaining. You might not get what you want, or you might get it, but you know, no harm will come to you. So they’re complaining all the time. They have all of these civil wars. They’re like, “Okay.” So I think I would give you a two-part answer, so really quickly, as to why this held together so well. First is that an extraordinary effort was made by the authorities to persuade their subjects that they were ruling on their behalf, and I think, for the most part, actually tended to do so. And the second is that it had a very tightly unified identity as Roman and as Orthodox. In other words, for the most, most time, they knew that they were surrounded by enemies who were not those things.
There’s no disincentive to complaining. You might not get what you want, or you might get it, but you know, no harm will come to you. So they’re complaining all the time. They have all of these civil wars. They’re like, “Okay.” So I think I would give you a two-part answer, so really quickly, as to why this held together so well. First is that an extraordinary effort was made by the authorities to persuade their subjects that they were ruling on their behalf, and I think, for the most part, actually tended to do so. And the second is that it had a very tightly unified identity as Roman and as Orthodox. In other words, for the most, most time, they knew that they were surrounded by enemies who were not those things.
Anthony Kaldellis
And they did not want to live under the power of non-Romans and non-Christian people. And so those two factors combined, I think, gave everybody reason to hold it together. The alternatives were worse.
And they did not want to live under the power of non-Romans and non-Christian people. And so those two factors combined, I think, gave everybody reason to hold it together. The alternatives were worse.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. I mean, that’s a really brilliant summary, and I think we should mention that both the rhetoric and the action are important. I think you’ve articulated that rhetoric is really powerful, like stating over and over and over- … that you represent the people, that you’re acting on behalf of the people and doing the action. But it’s not enough to actually do the action. You would think that’s all Machiavelli says, that’s the only thing that matters. But no.
Yeah. I mean, that’s a really brilliant summary, and I think we should mention that both the rhetoric and the action are important. I think you’ve articulated that rhetoric is really powerful, like stating over and over and over- … that you represent the people, that you’re acting on behalf of the people and doing the action. But it’s not enough to actually do the action. You would think that’s all Machiavelli says, that’s the only thing that matters. But no.
Anthony Kaldellis
No.
No.
Lex Fridman
It’s the rhetoric actually has a lot of power- … because it is a uniting idea- … an ideal that propagates through time, and it pacifies you. It makes you, it puts you at peace. Rhetoric is important.
It’s the rhetoric actually has a lot of power- … because it is a uniting idea- … an ideal that propagates through time, and it pacifies you. It makes you, it puts you at peace. Rhetoric is important.
Anthony Kaldellis
I’ll give you an example. As an academic administrator, right? I mean, I was chair of department for years and years. There’s a difference between a dean who says, “Sorry, bad budget situation. We’re just gonna have to cut your programs,” on the one hand, and a dean who says, “I am fully on board with what you’re trying to accomplish with these programs. I am a defender of the humanities. Unfortunately, we have this budget situation, and we’re gonna have to cut some of the programs. But I assure you, the moment I’m in this with you together- … the moment we find the funds, we will restore them.” Those two just rhetorical strategies, they’re aiming at the same practical outcome, will produce very different levels of compliance- … right, and consensus.
I’ll give you an example. As an academic administrator, right? I mean, I was chair of department for years and years. There’s a difference between a dean who says, “Sorry, bad budget situation. We’re just gonna have to cut your programs,” on the one hand, and a dean who says, “I am fully on board with what you’re trying to accomplish with these programs. I am a defender of the humanities. Unfortunately, we have this budget situation, and we’re gonna have to cut some of the programs. But I assure you, the moment I’m in this with you together- … the moment we find the funds, we will restore them.” Those two just rhetorical strategies, they’re aiming at the same practical outcome, will produce very different levels of compliance- … right, and consensus.
Lex Fridman
And I should say that there’s subtlety there. The best rhetoric in that context, and maybe in the East Roman Empire, is you also have to believe it.
And I should say that there’s subtlety there. The best rhetoric in that context, and maybe in the East Roman Empire, is you also have to believe it.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes. It has to be credible. You can’t just say it and then not do it.
Yes. It has to be credible. You can’t just say it and then not do it.
Lex Fridman
But one of the things I’ve learned about humans, just having doing this little podcast, is that… People could– Like, the best way to say a thing, a powerful thing, is to really believe it. And so, like, this is clearly one of the things that made the Roman Empire work, is doing the action is the best way to make the rhetoric powerful and effective.
But one of the things I’ve learned about humans, just having doing this little podcast, is that… People could– Like, the best way to say a thing, a powerful thing, is to really believe it. And so, like, this is clearly one of the things that made the Roman Empire work, is doing the action is the best way to make the rhetoric powerful and effective.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. This is sort of what Aristotle says about tyrants. In The Politics, Aristotle’s giving essentially advice to tyrants on how to protect themselves because tyrants are usually hated and are killed in coups, right? And he says, “Well, how are– You know, essentially, how do you manage to secure yourself when you’re a tyrant?” Well, you know, you can start by maybe, you know, obeying the laws or making sure that your subjects obey the laws and, you know, maybe work for the interests of yourself. Essentially, he’s telling them to kind of become benevolent kings. And the best way to persuade your subjects that you’re legitimate benevolent kings is to be that.
Yeah. This is sort of what Aristotle says about tyrants. In The Politics, Aristotle’s giving essentially advice to tyrants on how to protect themselves because tyrants are usually hated and are killed in coups, right? And he says, “Well, how are– You know, essentially, how do you manage to secure yourself when you’re a tyrant?” Well, you know, you can start by maybe, you know, obeying the laws or making sure that your subjects obey the laws and, you know, maybe work for the interests of yourself. Essentially, he’s telling them to kind of become benevolent kings. And the best way to persuade your subjects that you’re legitimate benevolent kings is to be that.
Lessons from history
Lex Fridman
So what, from all of this, from this 2,200-year history of the Roman Empire, what lessons can we draw for modern times? Now we’re sitting in America, this young empire. I know we’re not calling it an empire, but, you know.
So what, from all of this, from this 2,200-year history of the Roman Empire, what lessons can we draw for modern times? Now we’re sitting in America, this young empire. I know we’re not calling it an empire, but, you know.
Anthony Kaldellis
Lots of people are calling it an empire. I thought it was sort of taboo. Yeah, in the 20th century, it was like, “Is America an empire now?” But like, I think since the Iraq War, like since 2003, I’ve seen at least very casual uses of America and empire in the same sentence without any kind of hand-wringing.
Lots of people are calling it an empire. I thought it was sort of taboo. Yeah, in the 20th century, it was like, “Is America an empire now?” But like, I think since the Iraq War, like since 2003, I’ve seen at least very casual uses of America and empire in the same sentence without any kind of hand-wringing.
Lex Fridman
Is it ever called that in an academic setting?
Is it ever called that in an academic setting?
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
I mean, it’s technically, I guess you could say- … given, given the expanse of the military bases and the military might and the way that represents itself in the geopolitical context.
I mean, it’s technically, I guess you could say- … given, given the expanse of the military bases and the military might and the way that represents itself in the geopolitical context.
Anthony Kaldellis
There are books published all the time that unironically discuss America as an empire in various ways. Yeah, no.
There are books published all the time that unironically discuss America as an empire in various ways. Yeah, no.
Lex Fridman
By the way, both positive and negative. So when you’re saying a positive thing about America, calling it an empire, and when you’re saying it to criticize America, you call it an empire. Yeah, you’re right.
By the way, both positive and negative. So when you’re saying a positive thing about America, calling it an empire, and when you’re saying it to criticize America, you call it an empire. Yeah, you’re right.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. I mean, most academic books aren’t trying to do, like, either. They’re just trying to analyze a situation.
Yeah. I mean, most academic books aren’t trying to do, like, either. They’re just trying to analyze a situation.
Lex Fridman
What lessons about representing the people, about flourishing, about stability can we draw?
What lessons about representing the people, about flourishing, about stability can we draw?
Anthony Kaldellis
I will say that, just drawing on what we were talking about a moment ago, that investing in institutions that work for the majority of your subjects, even if indirectly—like they have to pay a cost for them, but you have to explain to them why they’re paying that cost—is to the benefit of the ruling classes as well. Because you’re, you’re– ideally, you’re thinking about long-term success and not just your own short-term, you know, gain. And I think that’s what this society tends to do well. You know, the Romans generally, you know how they built roads for the centuries and the millennia. They built institutions too. You know, one of the institutions they built was, like, the Christian Church. Like, they build things to last.
I will say that, just drawing on what we were talking about a moment ago, that investing in institutions that work for the majority of your subjects, even if indirectly—like they have to pay a cost for them, but you have to explain to them why they’re paying that cost—is to the benefit of the ruling classes as well. Because you’re, you’re– ideally, you’re thinking about long-term success and not just your own short-term, you know, gain. And I think that’s what this society tends to do well. You know, the Romans generally, you know how they built roads for the centuries and the millennia. They built institutions too. You know, one of the institutions they built was, like, the Christian Church. Like, they build things to last.
Anthony Kaldellis
And I think that’s a, that’s a good lesson beyond even the roads. I think institutions that explain, you know, to people why they exist is… Yeah, I think we could we could use some of that.
And I think that’s a, that’s a good lesson beyond even the roads. I think institutions that explain, you know, to people why they exist is… Yeah, I think we could we could use some of that.
Lex Fridman
And also the first point you made about the East Roman Empire. I think you’ve said that US foreign policy sometimes has a, quite a large gap between the rhetoric and, in modern times, the rhetoric and the action.
And also the first point you made about the East Roman Empire. I think you’ve said that US foreign policy sometimes has a, quite a large gap between the rhetoric and, in modern times, the rhetoric and the action.
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, yeah. Yeah.
Oh, yeah. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
And so that’s to the Machiavelli’s point that we want to maybe narrow that gap for a successful empire, for a successful nation. The rhetoric has to match the action.
And so that’s to the Machiavelli’s point that we want to maybe narrow that gap for a successful empire, for a successful nation. The rhetoric has to match the action.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
And it doesn’t quite, for some of the foreign policy engagements in the world.
And it doesn’t quite, for some of the foreign policy engagements in the world.
Anthony Kaldellis
So in the context of the society I study, let’s say the army is the single largest expense, is doing pretty much what the emperors say that it’s doing, which is protecting its subjects. That’s actually what it’s doing most of the time. Not all the time. So, for example, emperors will sometimes take the armies out on a raid or an expedition, you know, crack some skulls, gather some plunder, come back, and this is done to glorify the emperor. Like, yeah. Yeah, yeah, this does happen. But for the most part, they’re doing that, not much else. And actually, in pre-modern context, it’s very difficult to operate like, you know, shadow foreign policies and things like this. Like, it’s just not part of the-
So in the context of the society I study, let’s say the army is the single largest expense, is doing pretty much what the emperors say that it’s doing, which is protecting its subjects. That’s actually what it’s doing most of the time. Not all the time. So, for example, emperors will sometimes take the armies out on a raid or an expedition, you know, crack some skulls, gather some plunder, come back, and this is done to glorify the emperor. Like, yeah. Yeah, yeah, this does happen. But for the most part, they’re doing that, not much else. And actually, in pre-modern context, it’s very difficult to operate like, you know, shadow foreign policies and things like this. Like, it’s just not part of the-
Anthony Kaldellis
… It’s not, not, not in the cards. But America in particular has such a history of proclaiming the loftiest goals. It’s just, sometimes just, you know, breathtakingly implausible.
… It’s not, not, not in the cards. But America in particular has such a history of proclaiming the loftiest goals. It’s just, sometimes just, you know, breathtakingly implausible.
Lex Fridman
Plus the incredible engineering behind the military industrial complex, so America’s very good at creating- … to the flamethrowers.
Plus the incredible engineering behind the military industrial complex, so America’s very good at creating- … to the flamethrowers.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yes.
Yes.
Lex Fridman
The, the technologies- … of war, and so the lofty goals combined with just a lot of profit that could be made on- … the technologies of war creates a very difficult situation to navigate, where the gap naturally widens.
The, the technologies- … of war, and so the lofty goals combined with just a lot of profit that could be made on- … the technologies of war creates a very difficult situation to navigate, where the gap naturally widens.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. I don’t think most of the world even believes, you know, what American leaders say their goals are, especially when it comes to, like, war. Like spreading democracy? No, really? I remember when they were trying to convince me, us, that the invasion of Afghanistan was a feminist war.
Yeah. I don’t think most of the world even believes, you know, what American leaders say their goals are, especially when it comes to, like, war. Like spreading democracy? No, really? I remember when they were trying to convince me, us, that the invasion of Afghanistan was a feminist war.
Lex Fridman
Oh, that was a thing, huh?
Oh, that was a thing, huh?
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, yes. They were to liberate the women from the burqas or whatever, and, like, the news was just flooded with, like, how terrible women have it in Afghanistan. It’s like, you’re really trying to persuade me that that’s why you’re sending armed for- like… Anyway.
Oh, yes. They were to liberate the women from the burqas or whatever, and, like, the news was just flooded with, like, how terrible women have it in Afghanistan. It’s like, you’re really trying to persuade me that that’s why you’re sending armed for- like… Anyway.
Lex Fridman
I think there’s a lot, a lot of wake-up calls about the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, where people realized that there is that gap between the rhetoric and the action. And I mean, that’s how, because of a lot of people waking up to that, they create pressure on the government to close that gap. And that’s- … how we kind of navigate this- … complicated world, but it’s a costly one. I mean, these, these were extremely costly wars- … on every front, on every measure.
I think there’s a lot, a lot of wake-up calls about the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, where people realized that there is that gap between the rhetoric and the action. And I mean, that’s how, because of a lot of people waking up to that, they create pressure on the government to close that gap. And that’s- … how we kind of navigate this- … complicated world, but it’s a costly one. I mean, these, these were extremely costly wars- … on every front, on every measure.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yep, but the same lesson was learned in, like, the Vietnam War, and that was such a disaster that essentially they had to switch to– to abandon the conscript army, switch to a professional army. And, like, it took them so long to be able to, like, wage, you know, these empire wars again because of the sheer damage that the Vietnam War did to the credibility of the military leadership in the country, right? This never happens in, like, this doesn’t happen in, in Constantinople. I can lose a– You can be criticized for losing a war. That’s, that’s one thing, right? But that you’re using the army to do some, like… You know. No.
Yep, but the same lesson was learned in, like, the Vietnam War, and that was such a disaster that essentially they had to switch to– to abandon the conscript army, switch to a professional army. And, like, it took them so long to be able to, like, wage, you know, these empire wars again because of the sheer damage that the Vietnam War did to the credibility of the military leadership in the country, right? This never happens in, like, this doesn’t happen in, in Constantinople. I can lose a– You can be criticized for losing a war. That’s, that’s one thing, right? But that you’re using the army to do some, like… You know. No.
Lex Fridman
Some of this does have to do with the functioning of how democracy works, the temporary nature of the leaderships, and that they’re very- … short-sighted because of the nature of the elected position or the executive.
Some of this does have to do with the functioning of how democracy works, the temporary nature of the leaderships, and that they’re very- … short-sighted because of the nature of the elected position or the executive.
Anthony Kaldellis
Executive.
Executive.
Lex Fridman
I mean, that’s what we’re trying to figure out as a human civilization, how to do this for, in this particular case, the democracy thing.
I mean, that’s what we’re trying to figure out as a human civilization, how to do this for, in this particular case, the democracy thing.
Anthony Kaldellis
There’s no right answer, and by the way, I don’t wanna be ruled by kings or monarchs or emperors either. So it’s like I wouldn’t necessarily support that. I’m, I’m, I’m not advocating here for anything. I’m just trying to explain. But you’re exactly right. You know, we, we want democracy. We want leaders whom we can eject every four or five years- … which includes sometimes their, their, you know, teams of experts and policy designers and whatever, and that comes at a cost too.
There’s no right answer, and by the way, I don’t wanna be ruled by kings or monarchs or emperors either. So it’s like I wouldn’t necessarily support that. I’m, I’m, I’m not advocating here for anything. I’m just trying to explain. But you’re exactly right. You know, we, we want democracy. We want leaders whom we can eject every four or five years- … which includes sometimes their, their, you know, teams of experts and policy designers and whatever, and that comes at a cost too.
Lex Fridman
So you, you said that, you know, the Roman Empire, maybe ancient Greece, maybe the societies before that, and now societies after that, the society we live in are very different. And so applying the lessons of history, you have to be careful doing so. But are there things that are the same with us humans? So of everything you’ve studied across hundreds of years and centuries, are there aspects of human nature that kind of persist?
So you, you said that, you know, the Roman Empire, maybe ancient Greece, maybe the societies before that, and now societies after that, the society we live in are very different. And so applying the lessons of history, you have to be careful doing so. But are there things that are the same with us humans? So of everything you’ve studied across hundreds of years and centuries, are there aspects of human nature that kind of persist?
Anthony Kaldellis
So look, intellectually, I have gone through periods when, like when I was a grad student, this was kind of when postmodernism, what we might call loosely, was kind of alive and well and— had not yet been kicked in the pants.
So look, intellectually, I have gone through periods when, like when I was a grad student, this was kind of when postmodernism, what we might call loosely, was kind of alive and well and— had not yet been kicked in the pants.
Anthony Kaldellis
It was very common to find colleagues who did not believe that there was such a thing as, let’s say, human nature. In other words, that, let’s say, the parameters of human psychology are, you know, yes, there’s considerable variation, but they’re within a certain set of norms. Like it’s not— we’re, we’re not gonna behave like different species. And they did not believe that there was such a thing. In other words, that all of human history is essentially a series of incommensurate slices of difference, right? That you just couldn’t go from one to the next. And I think it’s a very problematic view for all kinds of reasons, like how small do you slice these slices? I mean, it… And no, I’m with Thucydides on this one—
It was very common to find colleagues who did not believe that there was such a thing as, let’s say, human nature. In other words, that, let’s say, the parameters of human psychology are, you know, yes, there’s considerable variation, but they’re within a certain set of norms. Like it’s not— we’re, we’re not gonna behave like different species. And they did not believe that there was such a thing. In other words, that all of human history is essentially a series of incommensurate slices of difference, right? That you just couldn’t go from one to the next. And I think it’s a very problematic view for all kinds of reasons, like how small do you slice these slices? I mean, it… And no, I’m with Thucydides on this one—
Anthony Kaldellis
… who says that, you know, more or less human beings are gonna, more or less, they’re going to act— right? They love, and they hate, and they have ambitions, and they’re incompetent, and, you know, you find the whole range of, you know, the whole gamut of diversity— … Pretty much in every, in any group of about 20 or 30 people, you’re gonna find the same kinds of types. Now, culture then comes in and, you know, tweaks things in all kinds of weird ways, and that’s, as a historian, what I like to study. I like just how the culture will modify, will set the dials, right? But that the dials go from one to 10, most people— … it’s like, yeah, yeah, yeah, I think so.
… who says that, you know, more or less human beings are gonna, more or less, they’re going to act— right? They love, and they hate, and they have ambitions, and they’re incompetent, and, you know, you find the whole range of, you know, the whole gamut of diversity— … Pretty much in every, in any group of about 20 or 30 people, you’re gonna find the same kinds of types. Now, culture then comes in and, you know, tweaks things in all kinds of weird ways, and that’s, as a historian, what I like to study. I like just how the culture will modify, will set the dials, right? But that the dials go from one to 10, most people— … it’s like, yeah, yeah, yeah, I think so.
Lex Fridman
But every once in a while, there’ll be a few folks who come along, whether it’s Steve Jobs with a turtleneck or some guy with a weird mustache or with a funny hat, and those can turn the tides of history.
But every once in a while, there’ll be a few folks who come along, whether it’s Steve Jobs with a turtleneck or some guy with a weird mustache or with a funny hat, and those can turn the tides of history.
Anthony Kaldellis
I think so. Occasionally, yes.
I think so. Occasionally, yes.
Lex Fridman
But they’re just ultra skilled at the right time— … at the right moment.
But they’re just ultra skilled at the right time— … at the right moment.
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, I believe that too. Oh, yeah. In other words, I don’t– I also don’t think that cultural systems or ideologies are so effectively totalitarian that they sort of colonize the mind of every person. And so everyone in a culture is just like a clone. No, you, you encounter this sometimes in, in historical scholarship. And, no, I think people can sometimes just think for themselves, or they can think outside the box, and they can do all kinds of things. And I always wanna keep my mind open to that possibility when I’m encountering historical agents. Yeah.
Oh, I believe that too. Oh, yeah. In other words, I don’t– I also don’t think that cultural systems or ideologies are so effectively totalitarian that they sort of colonize the mind of every person. And so everyone in a culture is just like a clone. No, you, you encounter this sometimes in, in historical scholarship. And, no, I think people can sometimes just think for themselves, or they can think outside the box, and they can do all kinds of things. And I always wanna keep my mind open to that possibility when I’m encountering historical agents. Yeah.
Lex Fridman
So just because you’ve seen this grand history, I apologize for the ridiculous question, but if we look at the entirety of Earth, and we fast-forward a million years from now—
So just because you’ve seen this grand history, I apologize for the ridiculous question, but if we look at the entirety of Earth, and we fast-forward a million years from now—
Anthony Kaldellis
Oof
Oof
Lex Fridman
… and the, and the history of life on Earth is written, do you think we’re at the very beginning of human history? Or are we in the middle, or are we close to the end?
… and the, and the history of life on Earth is written, do you think we’re at the very beginning of human history? Or are we in the middle, or are we close to the end?
Anthony Kaldellis
A million years from now. I mean, I can’t project or predict anything like a year from now. And I’ve become actually increasingly skeptical that I can do so at least. However, so I don’t know about beginning, middle, and end. It’s easier to think in terms of like, like numbered phases. Like significantly different phases of human history. And I would say we’re probably in the third. I think there’ve only been three phases. The first one being sort of hunter-gatherer period, which- … that lasted for the majority of human history so far. Right? Then there’s the agricultural revolution, basically. And this is when you start to produce surpluses that create more complex societies. And we’re now living through a technological– first industrial, now, you know-
A million years from now. I mean, I can’t project or predict anything like a year from now. And I’ve become actually increasingly skeptical that I can do so at least. However, so I don’t know about beginning, middle, and end. It’s easier to think in terms of like, like numbered phases. Like significantly different phases of human history. And I would say we’re probably in the third. I think there’ve only been three phases. The first one being sort of hunter-gatherer period, which- … that lasted for the majority of human history so far. Right? Then there’s the agricultural revolution, basically. And this is when you start to produce surpluses that create more complex societies. And we’re now living through a technological– first industrial, now, you know-
Lex Fridman
Yeah. You can throw it all in the same bucket
Yeah. You can throw it all in the same bucket
Anthony Kaldellis
… all kinds of tech-
… all kinds of tech-
Lex Fridman
Industrial, technological.
Industrial, technological.
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah. Industrial, technological. Which is modifying the parameters of what it is that human beings can do and possibly be. And who knows where this will go. But I see these as very distinct in many ways. It’s all human beings-
Yeah. Industrial, technological. Which is modifying the parameters of what it is that human beings can do and possibly be. And who knows where this will go. But I see these as very distinct in many ways. It’s all human beings-
Lex Fridman
Yeah, it’s all humans.
Yeah, it’s all humans.
Anthony Kaldellis
… but, but very different contexts.
… but, but very different contexts.
Lex Fridman
But they’re almost modifying themselves. So the question is, is there a fourth? Is there going to be a f-
But they’re almost modifying themselves. So the question is, is there a fourth? Is there going to be a f-
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, I’m pretty sure there will be.
Yeah, I’m pretty sure there will be.
Lex Fridman
And what does that look like, and is it– When they look back at the third, would they still see us as the same as them, or would it be something completely different?
And what does that look like, and is it– When they look back at the third, would they still see us as the same as them, or would it be something completely different?
Anthony Kaldellis
Oh, no. I mean, we look back at the, you know, Romans or the Greeks or, like, any period in history, and we’re like, “Yeah, no, I see what you’re doing there. You’re doing it with the, you know, the technological capabilities that you had at that time. You’re doing it with the materials that you had. But I see what you’re doing. Yeah.” You’ve got, you’ve got families, and you’ve got armies, and you’ve got, you know, you bury your dead, and you, you know…
Oh, no. I mean, we look back at the, you know, Romans or the Greeks or, like, any period in history, and we’re like, “Yeah, no, I see what you’re doing there. You’re doing it with the, you know, the technological capabilities that you had at that time. You’re doing it with the materials that you had. But I see what you’re doing. Yeah.” You’ve got, you’ve got families, and you’ve got armies, and you’ve got, you know, you bury your dead, and you, you know…
Lex Fridman
Mm-hmm. But now we’re increasingly actually having the tools and technology to modify, to, like, deeply modify what it means to be human. Genetic engineering, brain-computer interfaces. As we understand the brain more, we can modify things, expand completely. Plus artificial intelligence can expand the knowledge base and the intelligence of the human mind. Unless we figure out the human mind is actually incredibly special to the degree where it’s- At least with the tools we have this century, we cannot accomplish, we cannot achieve the level-
Mm-hmm. But now we’re increasingly actually having the tools and technology to modify, to, like, deeply modify what it means to be human. Genetic engineering, brain-computer interfaces. As we understand the brain more, we can modify things, expand completely. Plus artificial intelligence can expand the knowledge base and the intelligence of the human mind. Unless we figure out the human mind is actually incredibly special to the degree where it’s- At least with the tools we have this century, we cannot accomplish, we cannot achieve the level-
Lex Fridman
… of intelligence that– general intelligence that humans have. Or one of the things we might figure out in stage four of this long history is that the thing that makes humans special is not intelligence. It’s not any of the things we kind of value each other by. It’s actually consciousness, and consciousness is the thing that is very difficult to engineer. And so that’s the common thing from the hunter-gatherers to before the Industrial Revolution and after, is we’re still the same. We still feel like something to be alive, and that’s maybe an important component of what makes us fall in love with each other or fear each other or suffer and all the full range of the human condition, the human experience.
… of intelligence that– general intelligence that humans have. Or one of the things we might figure out in stage four of this long history is that the thing that makes humans special is not intelligence. It’s not any of the things we kind of value each other by. It’s actually consciousness, and consciousness is the thing that is very difficult to engineer. And so that’s the common thing from the hunter-gatherers to before the Industrial Revolution and after, is we’re still the same. We still feel like something to be alive, and that’s maybe an important component of what makes us fall in love with each other or fear each other or suffer and all the full range of the human condition, the human experience.
Lex Fridman
Maybe even technology cannot, cannot replicate that, cannot modify that. Maybe that’s what we learn. Or very possibly we destroy this whole thing. ‘Cause now for the first time in human history, we have the tools-
Maybe even technology cannot, cannot replicate that, cannot modify that. Maybe that’s what we learn. Or very possibly we destroy this whole thing. ‘Cause now for the first time in human history, we have the tools-
Anthony Kaldellis
Yeah, yeah, we have-
Yeah, yeah, we have-
Lex Fridman
… unfortunately, to destroy everything.
… unfortunately, to destroy everything.
Anthony Kaldellis
This is all very eloquent. I mean, after so many hours of my rambling about the medieval Roman Empire, you’re– Yeah. I’m impressed.
This is all very eloquent. I mean, after so many hours of my rambling about the medieval Roman Empire, you’re– Yeah. I’m impressed.
Lex Fridman
Okay. What gives you hope about this whole thing, about the future of human civilization?
Okay. What gives you hope about this whole thing, about the future of human civilization?
Anthony Kaldellis
Look, there are a lot of challenges, right, that we face and we talk about them a lot. As a historian, I see other periods that were far, far more difficult when people could have far more easily have given up hope, and sometimes did. But I don’t think we’re in one of those… Like, there are some major issues like the uncertain future of technologies, what they might do, exactly what you were talking about. I think they’re solvable problems to a certain degree. Like, if we can rein in some elites, a lot of these problems can be fixed, and that’s not like a super difficult… I mean, it’s difficult, but it’s not, like, impossible.
Look, there are a lot of challenges, right, that we face and we talk about them a lot. As a historian, I see other periods that were far, far more difficult when people could have far more easily have given up hope, and sometimes did. But I don’t think we’re in one of those… Like, there are some major issues like the uncertain future of technologies, what they might do, exactly what you were talking about. I think they’re solvable problems to a certain degree. Like, if we can rein in some elites, a lot of these problems can be fixed, and that’s not like a super difficult… I mean, it’s difficult, but it’s not, like, impossible.
Anthony Kaldellis
Look, so I, I grew up during the Cold War. Let’s just take the ’80s, for example. And in the ’80s, like, there was a pervasive sense that nuclear war could happen at any time and just annihilate everything, and we lived under that. If you look at the popular culture of the ’80s, it’s, like, all, like, upbeat and cheerful and naive and- … like, there was just no correlation. And then you move into the ’90s, and the Cold War is over, and everyone’s all depressed. The music gets all, like, whiny, and it’s like, “What happened?” There’s just no correlation. Anyway, I just think that the, the, it’s a pervasive sense of hopelessness or, you know-
Look, so I, I grew up during the Cold War. Let’s just take the ’80s, for example. And in the ’80s, like, there was a pervasive sense that nuclear war could happen at any time and just annihilate everything, and we lived under that. If you look at the popular culture of the ’80s, it’s, like, all, like, upbeat and cheerful and naive and- … like, there was just no correlation. And then you move into the ’90s, and the Cold War is over, and everyone’s all depressed. The music gets all, like, whiny, and it’s like, “What happened?” There’s just no correlation. Anyway, I just think that the, the, it’s a pervasive sense of hopelessness or, you know-
Anthony Kaldellis
… Despair doesn’t always match with, like, if you look at the situation objectively. I mean, yeah, it can be pretty bad. But there’s so much that’s happening that is good- … all the time, so.
… Despair doesn’t always match with, like, if you look at the situation objectively. I mean, yeah, it can be pretty bad. But there’s so much that’s happening that is good- … all the time, so.
Lex Fridman
I think this period of human history will be– ’cause we’ve talked about the ups and downs of the Roman Empire. I think unquestionably, this period in history, the 20th, the, the late 20th century and the 21st century will be seen as the flourishing of humans. So if we actually just wake up- … it’s like what everything around us, by most measures of human flourishing- … we’re doing pretty well.
I think this period of human history will be– ’cause we’ve talked about the ups and downs of the Roman Empire. I think unquestionably, this period in history, the 20th, the, the late 20th century and the 21st century will be seen as the flourishing of humans. So if we actually just wake up- … it’s like what everything around us, by most measures of human flourishing- … we’re doing pretty well.
Anthony Kaldellis
The amount of, like, sheer misery is probably objectively decreasing every year. Now, you know, we’re also creating problems, yes, that will cause misery down the road. Yes. But overall, I don’t see a reason to despair and not have hope.
The amount of, like, sheer misery is probably objectively decreasing every year. Now, you know, we’re also creating problems, yes, that will cause misery down the road. Yes. But overall, I don’t see a reason to despair and not have hope.
Lex Fridman
Yeah. We’re doing okay.
Yeah. We’re doing okay.
Anthony Kaldellis
We can do better. Let’s do better. But yeah.
We can do better. Let’s do better. But yeah.
Lex Fridman
That’s the… Let’s do better. Well, Anthony, this was an incredible conversation. Thank you for all the amazing work you do and for the whirlwind journey through such a fascinating part of human history. This was fun. Thank you for talking today.
That’s the… Let’s do better. Well, Anthony, this was an incredible conversation. Thank you for all the amazing work you do and for the whirlwind journey through such a fascinating part of human history. This was fun. Thank you for talking today.
Anthony Kaldellis
It was a pleasure to be here, and thank you for, not just for inviting me, I mean, this is probably the largest audience, you know, I’ve ever spoken to but also just for giving my field and this civilization that I study the opportunity to be seen and heard from more people. I think that’s very important. You’ve done a real service here, so I wanna thank you for that.
It was a pleasure to be here, and thank you for, not just for inviting me, I mean, this is probably the largest audience, you know, I’ve ever spoken to but also just for giving my field and this civilization that I study the opportunity to be seen and heard from more people. I think that’s very important. You’ve done a real service here, so I wanna thank you for that.
Lex Fridman
Thank you. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Anthony Kaldellis. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, let me leave you with some words from Benjamin Franklin. “A great empire, like a great cake, is most easily diminished at the edges.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
Thank you. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Anthony Kaldellis. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on. And now, let me leave you with some words from Benjamin Franklin. “A great empire, like a great cake, is most easily diminished at the edges.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.